Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2002-01-01
In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.
Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Precipitation Processes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2002-01-01
One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a cloud-resolving model, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. Dr. Joanne Simpson played a central role in GCE modeling developments and applications. She was the lead author or co-author on more than forty GCE modeling papers. In this paper, a brief discussion and review of the application of the GCE model to (1) cloud interactions and mergers, (2) convective and stratiform interaction, (3) mechanisms of cloud-radiation interaction, (4) latent heating profiles and TRMM, and (5) responses of cloud systems to large-scale processes are provided. Comparisons between the GCE model's results, other cloud-resolving model results and observations are also examined.
Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.
Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, J.; Baker, D.; Braun, S.; Chou, M.-D.; Ferrier, B.; Johnson, D.; Khain, A.; Lang, S.; Lynn, B.
2001-01-01
The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Matsui, Toshihisa; Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Olson, William S.; Lang, Stephen
2008-01-01
This paper proposes a methodology known as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Triple-Sensor Three-step Evaluation Framework (T3EF) for the systematic evaluation of precipitating cloud types and microphysics in a cloud-resolving model (CRM). T3EF utilizes multi-frequency satellite simulators and novel statistics of multi-frequency radiance and backscattering signals observed from the TRMM satellite. Specifically, T3EF compares CRM and satellite observations in the form of combined probability distributions of precipitation radar (PR) reflectivity, polarization-corrected microwave brightness temperature (Tb), and infrared Tb to evaluate the candidate CRM. T3EF is used to evaluate the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for cases involving the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) and Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). This evaluation reveals that the GCE properly captures the satellite-measured frequencies of different precipitating cloud types in the SCSMEX case but underestimates the frequencies of deep convective and deep stratiform types in the KWAJEX case. Moreover, the GCE tends to simulate excessively large and abundant frozen condensates in deep convective clouds as inferred from the overestimated GCE-simulated radar reflectivities and microwave Tb depressions. Unveiling the detailed errors in the GCE s performance provides the best direction for model improvements.
The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne
2012-01-01
Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low clean concentration and a high dirty concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.
The forces on a single interacting Bose-Einstein condensate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thu, Nguyen Van
2018-04-01
Using double parabola approximation for a single Bose-Einstein condensate confined between double slabs we proved that in grand canonical ensemble (GCE) the ground state with Robin boundary condition (BC) is favored, whereas in canonical ensemble (CE) our system undergoes from ground state with Robin BC to the one with Dirichlet BC in small-L region and vice versa for large-L region and phase transition in space of the ground state is the first order. The surface tension force and Casimir force are also considered in both CE and GCE in detail.
Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2005-01-01
Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional singlecolumn models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from Merent geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloudscale model (termed a super-parameterization or multiscale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameteridon NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production nms will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.
A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2010-01-01
A multi-scale modeling system with unified physics has been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The system consists of an MMF, the coupled NASA Goddard finite-volume GCM (fvGCM) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE, a CRM); the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the stand alone GCE. These models can share the same microphysical schemes, radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models that have been developed, improved and tested for different environments. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on the impact of the aerosol on deep precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications). We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the ph ysical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was utilized in two and three dimensions in order to examine the behavior and response of simulated deep tropical cloud systems occurred in west Pacific warm pool region and Atlantic ocean. The periods chosen for simulation were convectively active period over the TOGA-COARE IFA (19-27 December 1992) and GATE (September 1 to 7, 1974). The TOGA COARE IFA period was also in the framework of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) WG4 case 2. We will examine the differences between the microphysics (warm rain and ice processes, evaporation/sublimation and condensation/deposition), Q1 (Temperature) and Q2 (Water vapor) budgets between these two convective events occurred in different large-scale environments. The contribution of stratiform precipitation and its relationship to the vertical shear of the large-scale horizontal wind will also be examined. The results from GCSS model intercomparsion will be presented. The new improvements (i.e., microphysics, cloud radiation interaction, surface processes and numerical advection scheme) of the GCE model as well as their sensitivity to the model results will be discussed.
Vertical transport by convective clouds: Comparisons of three modeling approaches
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pickering, Kenneth E.; Thompson, Anne M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rood, Richard B.; Mcnamara, Donna P.; Molod, Andrea M.
1995-01-01
A preliminary comparison of the GEOS-1 (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system convective cloud mass fluxes with fluxes from a cloud-resolving model (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model, GCE) is reported. A squall line case study (10-11 June 1985 Oklahoma PRESTORM episode) is the basis of the comparison. Regional (central U. S.) monthly total convective mass flux for June 1985 from GEOS-1 compares favorably with estimates from a statistical/dynamical approach using GCE simulations and satellite-derived cloud observations. The GEOS-1 convective mass fluxes produce reasonable estimates of monthly-averaged regional convective venting of CO from the boundary layer at least in an urban-influenced continental region, suggesting that they can be used in tracer transport simulations.
Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2005-01-01
Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud- resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, ( 2 ) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mohr, Karen Irene; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.
2013-01-01
The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.
A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2010-01-01
A multi-scale modeling system with unified physics has been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The system consists of an MMF, the coupled NASA Goddard finite-volume GCM (fvGCM) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE, a CRM); the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the stand alone GCE. These models can share the same microphysical schemes, radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models that have been developed, improved and tested for different environments. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on the impact of the aerosol on deep precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications). We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems. In addition, high - resolution (spatial. 2km, and temporal, I minute) visualization showing the model results will be presented.
Use NU-WRF and GCE Model to Simulate the Precipitation Processes During MC3E Campaign
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Matsui, Toshi; Li, Xiaowen; Zeng, Xiping; Peter-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur
2012-01-01
One of major CRM approaches to studying precipitation processes is sometimes referred to as "cloud ensemble modeling". This approach allows many clouds of various sizes and stages of their lifecycles to be present at any given simulation time. Large-scale effects derived from observations are imposed into CRMs as forcing, and cyclic lateral boundaries are used. The advantage of this approach is that model results in terms of rainfall and QI and Q2 usually are in good agreement with observations. In addition, the model results provide cloud statistics that represent different types of clouds/cloud systems during their lifetime (life cycle). The large-scale forcing derived from MC3EI will be used to drive GCE model simulations. The model-simulated results will be compared with observations from MC3E. These GCE model-simulated datasets are especially valuable for LH algorithm developers. In addition, the regional scale model with very high-resolution, NASA Unified WRF is also used to real time forecast during the MC3E campaign to ensure that the precipitation and other meteorological forecasts are available to the flight planning team and to interpret the forecast results in terms of proposed flight scenarios. Post Mission simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of initial and lateral boundary conditions to cloud and precipitation processes and rainfall. We will compare model results in terms of precipitation and surface rainfall using GCE model and NU-WRF
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shie, Chung-Lin; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Johnson, Dan; Simpson, Joanne; Li, Xiaofan; Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
Coupling a cloud resolving model (CRM) with an ocean mixed layer (OML) model can provide a powerful tool for better understanding impacts of atmospheric precipitation on sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. The objective of this study is twofold. First, by using the three dimensional (3-D) CRM-simulated (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE) diabatic source terms, radiation (longwave and shortwave), surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat, and wind stress), and precipitation as input for the OML model, the respective impact of individual component on upper ocean heat and salt budgets are investigated. Secondly, a two-way air-sea interaction between tropical atmospheric climates (involving atmospheric radiative-convective processes) and upper ocean boundary layer is also examined using a coupled two dimensional (2-D) GCE and OML model. Results presented here, however, only involve the first aspect. Complete results will be presented at the conference.
Applications and Improvement of a Coupled, Global and Cloud-Resolving Modeling System
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Chern, J.; Atlas, R.
2005-01-01
Recently Grabowski (2001) and Khairoutdinov and Randall (2001) have proposed the use of 2D CFWs as a "super parameterization" [or multi-scale modeling framework (MMF)] to represent cloud processes within atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). In the MMF, a fine-resolution 2D CRM takes the place of the single-column parameterization used in conventional GCMs. A prototype Goddard MMF based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) is now being developed. The prototype includes the fvGCM run at 2.50 x 20 horizontal resolution with 32 vertical layers from the surface to 1 mb and the 2D (x-z) GCE using 64 horizontal and 32 vertical grid points with 4 km horizontal resolution and a cyclic lateral boundary. The time step for the 2D GCE would be 15 seconds, and the fvGCM-GCE coupling frequency would be 30 minutes (i.e. the fvGCM physical time step). We have successfully developed an fvGCM-GCE coupler for this prototype. Because the vertical coordinate of the fvGCM (a terrain-following floating Lagrangian coordinate) is different from that of the GCE (a z coordinate), vertical interpolations between the two coordinates are needed in the coupler. In interpolating fields from the GCE to fvGCM, we use an existing fvGCM finite- volume piecewise parabolic mapping (PPM) algorithm, which conserves the mass, momentum, and total energy. A new finite-volume PPM algorithm, which conserves the mass, momentum and moist static energy in the z coordinate, is being developed for interpolating fields from the fvGCM to the GCE. In the meeting, we will discuss the major differences between the two MMFs (i.e., the CSU MMF and the Goddard MMF). We will also present performance and critical issues related to the MMFs. In addition, we will present multi-dimensional cloud datasets (i.e., a cloud data library) generated by the Goddard MMF that will be provided to the global modeling community to help improve the representation and performance of moist processes in climate models and to improve our understanding of cloud processes globally (the software tools needed to produce cloud statistics and to identify various types of clouds and cloud systems from both high-resolution satellite and model data will be also presented).
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Zeng, Xiping; Li, Xiaowen; Matsui, Toshi; Mohr, Karen; Posselt, Derek; Chern, Jiundar; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Norris, Peter M.;
2014-01-01
Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on precipitation processes, utilizing a satellite simulator to improve the microphysics, providing better simulations for satellite-derived latent heating retrieval, and coupling with a general circulation model to improve the representation of precipitation processes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Y.; Tao, W.; Hou, A. Y.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.
2007-12-01
The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for different environmental conditions, i.e., the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX), CRYSTAL-FACE, and KAWJEX are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and as well as cloud observations from the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. The model presents large discrepancies in rain spectrum and vertical hydrometer profiles. The discrepancy in the precipitation field is also consistent with the cloud and radiation observations. The study will focus on the effects of large scale forcing and microphysics to the simulated model- observation discrepancies.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Olson, W. S.; Johnson, D.; Ferrier, B.; Kummerow, C.; Adler, R.
1999-01-01
Latent heating profiles associated with three (TOGA COARE) Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment active convective episodes (December 10-17 1992; December 19-27 1992; and February 9-13 1993) are examined using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model and retrieved by using the Goddard Convective and Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm . The following sources of rainfall information are input into the CSH algorithm: Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1), Radar and the GCE model. Diagnostically determined latent heating profiles calculated using 6 hourly soundings are used for validation. The GCE model simulated rainfall and latent heating profiles are in excellent agreement with those estimated by soundings. In addition, the typical convective and stratiform heating structures (or shapes) are well captured by the GCE model. Radar measured rainfall is smaller than that both estimated by the GCE model and SSM/I in all three different COARE IFA periods. SSM/I derived rainfall is more than the GCE model simulated for the December 19-27 and February 9-13 periods, but is in excellent agreement with the GCE model for the December 10-17 period. The GCE model estimated stratiform amount is about 50% for December 19-27, 42% for December 11-17 and 56% for the February 9-13 case. These results are consistent with large-scale analyses. The accurate estimates of stratiform amount is needed for good latent heating retrieval. A higher (lower) percentage of stratiform rain can imply a maximum heating rate at a higher (lower) altitude. The GCE model always simulates more stratiform rain (10 to 20%) than the radar for all three convective episodes. SSM/I derived stratiform amount is about 37% for December 19-27, 48% for December 11-17 and 41% for the February 9-13 case. Temporal variability of CSH algorithm retrieved latent heating profiles using either GCE model simulated or radar estimated rainfall and stratiform amount is in good agreement with that diagnostically determined for all three periods. However, less rainfall and a smaller stratiform percentage estimated by radar resulted in a weaker (underestimated) latent heating profile and a lower maximum latent heating level compared to those determined diagnostically. Rainfall information from SSM/I can not retrieve individual convective events due to poor temporal sampling. Nevertheless, this study suggests that a good 4r, rainfall retrieval from SSM/I for a convective event always leads to a good latent heating retrieval. Sensitivity testing has been performed and the results indicate that the SSM/I derived time averaged stratiform amount may be underestimated for December 19-27. Time averaged heating profiles derived from SSM/I, however, are not in bad agreement with those derived by soundings for the December 10-17 convective period. The heating retrievals may be more accurate for longer time scales provided there is no bias in the sampling.
Convective Systems Over the Japan Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Yoshizaki, Masanori; Shie, Chung-Lin; Kato, Teryuki
2002-01-01
Wintertime observations of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) over the Sea of Japan - 2001 (WMO-01) were collected from January 12 to February 1, 2001. One of the major objectives is to better understand and forecast snow systems and accompanying disturbances and the associated key physical processes involved in the formation and development of these disturbances. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during WMO-01 provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with winter storms over the Sea of Japan region. WMO-01 also provided estimates of the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). The vertical integrals of Q1 and Q2 are equal to the surface precipitation rates. The horizontal and vertical adjective components of Q1 and Q2 can be used as large-scale forcing for the Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM (typically run with a 1-km grid size). The GCE model has sophisticated microphysics and allows explicit interactions between clouds, radiation, and surface processes. It will be used to understand and quantify precipitation processes associated with wintertime convective systems over the Sea of Japan (using data collected during the WMO-01). This is the first cloud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE model-simulated WMO-01 results will also be compared to other GCE model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., South China Sea, west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Y.; Hou, A.; Lau, W. K.; Shie, C.; Tao, W.; Lin, X.; Chou, M.; Olson, W. S.; Grecu, M.
2006-05-01
The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) single scanner footprint (SSF) radiation and cloud retrievals. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. Mesoscale organization is adequately simulated except when environmental wind shear is very weak. The partitions between convective and stratiform rain are also close to TMI and PR classification. However, the model simulated rain spectrum is quite different from either TMI or PR measurements. The model produces more heavy rains and light rains (less than 0.1 mm/hr) than the observations. The model also produces heavier vertical hydrometer profiles of rain, graupel when compared with TMI retrievals and PR radar reflectivity. Comparing GCE simulated OLR and cloud properties with CERES measurements found that the model has much larger domain averaged OLR due to smaller total cloud fraction and a much skewed distribution of OLR and cloud top than CERES observations, indicating that the model's cloud field is not wide spread, consistent with the model's precipitation activity. These results will be used as guidance for improving the model's microphysics.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, S.; Tao, W. K.; Li, X.; Matsui, T.; Sun, X. H.; Yang, X.
2015-12-01
A cloud-resolving model (CRM) is an atmospheric numerical model that can numerically resolve clouds and cloud systems at 0.25~5km horizontal grid spacings. The main advantage of the CRM is that it can allow explicit interactive processes between microphysics, radiation, turbulence, surface, and aerosols without subgrid cloud fraction, overlapping and convective parameterization. Because of their fine resolution and complex physical processes, it is challenging for the CRM community to i) visualize/inter-compare CRM simulations, ii) diagnose key processes for cloud-precipitation formation and intensity, and iii) evaluate against NASA's field campaign data and L1/L2 satellite data products due to large data volume (~10TB) and complexity of CRM's physical processes. We have been building the Super Cloud Library (SCL) upon a Hadoop framework, capable of CRM database management, distribution, visualization, subsetting, and evaluation in a scalable way. The current SCL capability includes (1) A SCL data model enables various CRM simulation outputs in NetCDF, including the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, to be accessed and processed by Hadoop, (2) A parallel NetCDF-to-CSV converter supports NU-WRF and GCE model outputs, (3) A technique visualizes Hadoop-resident data with IDL, (4) A technique subsets Hadoop-resident data, compliant to the SCL data model, with HIVE or Impala via HUE's Web interface, (5) A prototype enables a Hadoop MapReduce application to dynamically access and process data residing in a parallel file system, PVFS2 or CephFS, where high performance computing (HPC) simulation outputs such as NU-WRF's and GCE's are located. We are testing Apache Spark to speed up SCL data processing and analysis.With the SCL capabilities, SCL users can conduct large-domain on-demand tasks without downloading voluminous CRM datasets and various observations from NASA Field Campaigns and Satellite data to a local computer, and inter-compare CRM output and data with GCE and NU-WRF.
Simulated Radar Characteristics of LBA Convective Systems: Easterly and Westerly Regimes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne
2003-01-01
The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate convection that occurred during the TRMM LBA field experiment in Brazil. Convection in this region can be categorized into two different regimes. Low-level easterly flow results in moderate to high CAPE and a drier environment. Convection is more intense like that seen over continents. Low-level westerly flow results in low CAPE and a moist environment. Convection is weaker and more widespread characteristic of oceanic or monsoon-like systems. The GCE model has been used to study both regimes n order to provide cloud datasets that are representative of both environments in support of TRMM rainfall and heating algorithm development. Two different cases are analyzed: Jan 26, 1999, an eastely regime case, and Feb 23, 1999, a westerly regime case. The Jan 26 case is an organized squall line, while the Feb 23 case is less organized with only transient lines. Radar signatures, including CFADs, from the two simulated cases are compared to each other and with observations. The microphysical processes simulated in the model are also compared between the two cases.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Hou, A.; Lin, X.
2006-01-01
The GCE (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble) model, which has been developed and improved at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades, is considered as one of the finer and state-of-the-art CRMs (Cloud Resolving Models) in the research community. As the chosen CRM for a NASA Interdisciplinary Science (IDS) Project, GCE has recently been successfully upgraded into an MPI (Message Passing Interface) version with which great improvement has been achieved in computational efficiency, scalability, and portability. By basically using the large-scale temperature and moisture advective forcing, as well as the temperature, water vapor and wind fields obtained from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) field experiments such as SCSMEX (South China Sea Monsoon Experiment) and KWAJEX (Kwajalein Experiment), our recent 2-D and 3-D GCE simulations were able to capture detailed convective systems typical of the targeted (simulated) regions. The GEOS-3 [Goddard EOS (Earth Observing System) Version-3] reanalysis data have also been proposed and successfully implemented for usage in the proposed/performed GCE long-term simulations (i.e., aiming at producing massive simulated cloud data -- Cloud Library) in compensating the scarcity of real field experimental data in both time and space (location). Preliminary 2-D or 3-D pilot results using GEOS-3 data have generally showed good qualitative agreement (yet some quantitative difference) with the respective numerical results using the SCSMEX observations. The first objective of this paper is to ensure the GEOS-3 data quality by comparing the model results obtained from several pairs of simulations using the real observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis data. The different large-scale advective forcing obtained from these two kinds of resources (i.e., sounding observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis) has been considered as a major critical factor in producing various model results. The second objective of this paper is therefore to investigate and present such an impact of large-scale forcing on various modeled quantities (such as hydrometeors, rainfall, and etc.). A third objective is to validate the overall GCE 3-D model performance by comparing the numerical results with sounding observations, as well as available satellite retrievals.
Improving a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme Using TRMM Satellite Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Li, Xiaowen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Matsui, Toshihisa; Liu, Chuntao; Masunaga, Hirohiko
2010-01-01
Comparisons between cloud model simulations and observations are crucial in validating model performance and improving physical processes represented in the mod Tel.hese modeled physical processes are idealized representations and almost always have large rooms for improvements. In this study, we use data from two different sensors onboard TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) satellite to improve the microphysical scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. TRMM observed mature-stage squall lines during late spring, early summer in central US over a 9-year period are compiled and compared with a case simulation by GCE model. A unique aspect of the GCE model is that it has a state-of-the-art spectral bin microphysical scheme, which uses 33 different bins to represent particle size distribution of each of the seven hydrometeor species. A forward radiative transfer model calculates TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) 85 GHz brightness temperatures from simulated particle size distributions. Comparisons between model outputs and observations reveal that the model overestimates sizes of snow/aggregates in the stratiform region of the squall line. After adjusting temperature-dependent collection coefficients among ice-phase particles, PR comparisons become good while TMI comparisons worsen. Further investigations show that the partitioning between graupel (a high-density form of aggregate), and snow (a low-density form of aggregate) needs to be adjusted in order to have good comparisons in both PR reflectivity and TMI brightness temperature. This study shows that long-term satellite observations, especially those with multiple sensors, can be very useful in constraining model microphysics. It is also the first study in validating and improving a sophisticated spectral bin microphysical scheme according to long-term satellite observations.
Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo
2013-01-01
One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.
A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2005-01-01
Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data sets (or cloud library) stored at Goddard.
Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of LBA Convective Systems: Easterly and Westerly Regimes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo
2002-01-01
The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate convection that occurred during the TRMM LBA field experiment in Brazil. Convection in this region can be categorized into two different regimes. Low-level easterly flow results in moderate to high CAPE and a drier environment. Convection is more intense like that seen over continents. Low-level westerly flow results in low CAPE and a moist environment. Convection is weaker and more widespread characteristic of oceanic or monsoon-like systems. The GCE model has been used to study both regimes in order to provide cloud data sets that are representative of both environments in support of TRMM rainfall and heating algorithm development. Two different case are presented: Jan 26,1999, an easterly regime case, and Feb 23,1999, a westerly regime case. The Jan 26 case is an organized squall line and is initialized with a standard cold pool. The sensitivity to mid-level sounding moisture and wind shear will also be shown. The Feb 23 case is less-organized with only transient lines and is initialized with either warm bubbles or prescribed surface fluxes. Heating profiles, rainfall statistics and storm characteristics are compared and validated for the two cases against observations collected during the experiment.
Tropical Convection and Climate Processes in a Cumulus Ensemble Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sui, Chung-Hsiung
1999-01-01
Local convective-radiative equilibrium states of the tropical atmosphere are determined by the following external forcing: 1) Insolation, 2) Surface heat and moisture exchanges (primarily radiation and evaporation), 3) Heating and moistening induced by large-scale circulation. Understanding the equilibrium states of the tropical atmosphere in different external forcing conditions is of vital importance for studying cumulus parameterization, climate feedbacks, and climate changes. We extend our previous study using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model which resolves convective-radiative processes more explicitly than global climate models do. Several experiments are carried out under fixed insolation and sea surface temperature. The prescribed SST consists of a uniform warm pool (29C) surrounded by uniform cold SST (26C). The model produces "Walker"-type circulation with the ascending branch of the model atmosphere more humid than the descending part, but the vertically integrated temperature does not show a horizontal gradient. The results are compared with satellite measured moisture by SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) and temperature by MSU in the ascending and descending tropical atmosphere. The vertically integrated temperature and humidity in the two model regimes are comparable to the observed values in the tropics.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Hou, A.; Atlas, R.; Starr, D.; Sud, Y.
2003-01-01
Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D) have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. IN these 3D simulators, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical clouds systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and at NASA Goddard Space Center. At Goddard, a 3D cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE, GATE, SCSMEX, ARM, and KWAJEX using a 512 by 512 km domain (with 2-km resolution). The result indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulation. The major objective of this paper are: (1) to assess the performance of the super-parametrization technique, (2) calculate and examine the surface energy (especially radiation) and water budget, and (3) identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, D.; Simpson, J.
2004-01-01
Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D, see a brief review by Tao 2003). Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, at NOAA GFDL, at the U. K. Met. Office, at Colorado State University and at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Tao 2003). At Goddard, a 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (September 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (June 2-11, 1998), ARM (June 26-30, 1997) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 km domain (with 2-kilometer resolution). The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulations. However, there are difference in radiation, surface fluxes and precipitation characteristics. The 2D GCE model was used to perform a long-term integration on ARM/GCSS case 4 (22 days at the ARM southern Great Plains site in March 2000). Preliminary results showed a large temperature bias in the upper troposphere that had not been seen in previous tropical cases. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to determine the sensitivities to model configuration (ie., 2D in west-east, south-north or 3D), (2) to identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between 2D- and 3D-simulated ARM cloud systems, and (3) assess the impact of upper tropospheric forcing on tropical and ARM case 4 cases.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, D.; Simpson, J.
2004-01-01
Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D, see a brief review by Tao 2003). Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, at NOAA GFDL, at the U. K. Met. Office, at Colorado State University and at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Tao 2003). At Goddard, a 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (September 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (June 2-11, 1998), ARM (June 26-30, 1997) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 by 512 km domain (with 2-km resolution). The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulations. However, there are difference in radiation, surface fluxes and precipitation characteristics. The 2D GCE model was used to perform a long-term integration on ARM/GCSS case 4 (22 days at the ARM Southern Great Plains site in March 2000). Preliminary results showed a large temperature bias in the upper troposphere that had not been seen in previous tropical cases. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to determine the sensitivities to model configuration (i.e., 2D in west-east, south-north or 3D), (2) to identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between 2D- and 3D-simulated ARM cloud systems, and (3) assess the impact of upper tropospheric forcing on tropical and ARM case 4 cases.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Posselt, D.; L'Ecuyer, T.; Matsui, T.
2009-05-01
Cloud resolving models are typically used to examine the characteristics of clouds and precipitation and their relationship to radiation and the large-scale circulation. As such, they are not required to reproduce the exact location of each observed convective system, much less each individual cloud. Some of the most relevant information about clouds and precipitation is provided by instruments located on polar-orbiting satellite platforms, but these observations are intermittent "snapshots" in time, making assessment of model performance challenging. In contrast to direct comparison, model results can be evaluated statistically. This avoids the requirement for the model to reproduce the observed systems, while returning valuable information on the performance of the model in a climate-relevant sense. The focus of this talk is a model evaluation study, in which updates to the microphysics scheme used in a three-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model are evaluated using statistics of observed clouds, precipitation, and radiation. We present the results of multiday (non-equilibrium) simulations of organized deep convection using single- and double-moment versions of a the model's cloud microphysical scheme. Statistics of TRMM multi-sensor derived clouds, precipitation, and radiative fluxes are used to evaluate the GCE results, as are simulated TRMM measurements obtained using a sophisticated instrument simulator suite. We present advantages and disadvantages of performing model comparisons in retrieval and measurement space and conclude by motivating the use of data assimilation techniques for analyzing and improving model parameterizations.
Validation of Microphysical Schemes in a CRM Using TRMM Satellite
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, X.; Tao, W.; Matsui, T.; Liu, C.; Masunaga, H.
2007-12-01
The microphysical scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model has been the most heavily developed component in the past decade. The cloud-resolving model now has microphysical schemes ranging from the original Lin type bulk scheme, to improved bulk schemes, to a two-moment scheme, to a detailed bin spectral scheme. Even with the most sophisticated bin scheme, many uncertainties still exist, especially in ice phase microphysics. In this study, we take advantages of the long-term TRMM observations, especially the cloud profiles observed by the precipitation radar (PR), to validate microphysical schemes in the simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). Two contrasting cases, a midlatitude summertime continental MCS with leading convection and trailing stratiform region, and an oceanic MCS in tropical western Pacific are studied. The simulated cloud structures and particle sizes are fed into a forward radiative transfer model to simulate the TRMM satellite sensors, i.e., the PR, the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and the visible and infrared scanner (VIRS). MCS cases that match the structure and strength of the simulated systems over the 10-year period are used to construct statistics of different sensors. These statistics are then compared with the synthetic satellite data obtained from the forward radiative transfer calculations. It is found that the GCE model simulates the contrasts between the continental and oceanic case reasonably well, with less ice scattering in the oceanic case comparing with the continental case. However, the simulated ice scattering signals for both PR and TMI are generally stronger than the observations, especially for the bulk scheme and at the upper levels in the stratiform region. This indicates larger, denser snow/graupel particles at these levels. Adjusting microphysical schemes in the GCE model according the observations, especially the 3D cloud structure observed by TRMM PR, result in a much better agreement.
The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, X.; Khain, A.; Simpson, S.
2004-01-01
Cloud microphysics are inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles (i.e., pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail). Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region, in the sub-tropics (Florida) and in the mid-latitude using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low 'clean' concentration and a high 'dirty' concentration.
Alveolar Macrophages Play a Key Role in Cockroach-Induced Allergic Inflammation via TNF-α Pathway
Kim, Joo Young; Sohn, Jung Ho; Choi, Je-Min; Lee, Jae-Hyun; Hong, Chein-Soo; Lee, Joo-Shil; Park, Jung-Won
2012-01-01
The activity of the serine protease in the German cockroach allergen is important to the development of allergic disease. The protease-activated receptor (PAR)-2, which is expressed in numerous cell types in lung tissue, is known to mediate the cellular events caused by inhaled serine protease. Alveolar macrophages express PAR-2 and produce considerable amounts of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α. We determined whether the serine protease in German cockroach extract (GCE) enhances TNF-α production by alveolar macrophages through the PAR-2 pathway and whether the TNF-α production affects GCE-induced pulmonary inflammation. Effects of GCE on alveolar macrophages and TNF-α production were evaluated using in vitro MH-S and RAW264.6 cells and in vivo GCE-induced asthma models of BALB/c mice. GCE contained a large amount of serine protease. In the MH-S and RAW264.7 cells, GCE activated PAR-2 and thereby produced TNF-α. In the GCE-induced asthma model, intranasal administration of GCE increased airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR), inflammatory cell infiltration, productions of serum immunoglobulin E, interleukin (IL)-5, IL-13 and TNF-α production in alveolar macrophages. Blockade of serine proteases prevented the development of GCE induced allergic pathologies. TNF-α blockade also prevented the development of such asthma-like lesions. Depletion of alveolar macrophages reduced AHR and intracellular TNF-α level in pulmonary cell populations in the GCE-induced asthma model. These results suggest that serine protease from GCE affects asthma through an alveolar macrophage and TNF-α dependent manner, reflecting the close relation of innate and adaptive immune response in allergic asthma model. PMID:23094102
Convective Systems over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-L.; Simpson, J.; Braun, S.; Johnson, R. H.; Ciesielski, P. E.
2003-12-01
The two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to simulate two South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) convective periods [18 26 May (prior to and during the monsoon onset) and 2 11 June (after the onset of the monsoon) 1998]. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum are used as the main forcing in governing the GCE model in a semiprognostic manner. The June SCSMEX case has stronger forcing in both temperature and water vapor, stronger low-level vertical shear of the horizontal wind, and larger convective available potential energy (CAPE).The temporal variation of the model-simulated rainfall, time- and domain-averaged heating, and moisture budgets compares well to those diagnostically determined from soundings. However, the model results have a higher temporal variability. The model underestimates the rainfall by 17% to 20% compared to that based on soundings. The GCE model-simulated rainfall for June is in very good agreement with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), precipitation radar (PR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Overall, the model agrees better with observations for the June case rather than the May case.The model-simulated energy budgets indicate that the two largest terms for both cases are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening). These two terms are opposite in sign, however. The model results also show that there are more latent heat fluxes for the May case. However, more rainfall is simulated for the June case. Net radiation (solar heating and longwave cooling) are about 34% and 25%, respectively, of the net condensation (condensation minus evaporation) for the May and June cases. Sensible heat fluxes do not contribute to rainfall in either of the SCSMEX cases. Two types of organized convective systems, unicell (May case) and multicell (June case), are simulated by the model. They are determined by the observed mean U wind shear (unidirectional versus reverse shear profiles above midlevels).Several sensitivity tests are performed to examine the impact of the radiation, microphysics, and large-scale mean horizontal wind on the organization and intensity of the SCSMEX convective systems.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2006-01-01
Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CFWs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1 998 and 1999). In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).
Convective Systems Over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shie, C.-L.; Johnson, D.; Simpson, J.; Braun, S.; Johnson, R.; Ciesielski, P. E.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided rainfall estimates which allows for comparisons with those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a low earth orbit satellite designed to measure rainfall from space. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1-km grid size) is used to understand and quantify the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea. This is the first (loud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE-model results captured many of the observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the temporal variation of the simulated rainfall compares quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall variation. The time and domain-averaged temperature (heating/cooling) and water vapor (drying/ moistening) budgets are in good agreement with observations. The GCE-model-simulated rainfall amount also agrees well with TRMM rainfall data. The results show there is more evaporation from the ocean surface prior to the onset of the monsoon than after the on-et of monsoon when rainfall increases. Forcing due to net radiation (solar heating minus longwave cooling) is responsible for about 25% of the precipitation in SCSMEX The transfer of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere does not contribute significantly to the rainfall in SCSMEX. Model sensitivity tests indicated that total rain production is reduced 17-18% in runs neglecting the ice phase. The SCSMEX results are compared to other GCE-model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA). Large-scale forcing vie temperature and water vapor tendency, is the major energy source for net condensation in the tropical cases. The effects of large-scale cooling exceed that of large-scale moistening in the west pacific warm pool region and eastern Atlantic region. For SCSMEX, however, the effects of large-scale moistening predominate. Net radiation and sensible and latent hc,it fluxes play a much more important role in the central USA.
Microphysics in Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2012-01-01
Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shie, C.-L.; Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.
2005-01-01
An ideal and simple formulation is successfully derived that well represents a quasi-linear relationship found between the domain-averaged water vapor, q (mm), and temperature, T (K), fields obtained from a series of quasi-equilibrium (long-term) simulations for the Tropics using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Earlier model work showed that the forced maintenance of two different wind profiles in the Tropics leads to two different equilibrium states. Investigating this finding required investigation of the slope of the moisture-temperature relations, which turns out to be linear in the Tropics. The extra-tropical climate equilibriums become more complex, but insight on modeling sensitivity can be obtained by linear stepwise regression of the integrated temperature and humidity. A globally curvilinear moisture-temperature distribution, similar to the famous Clausius-Clapeyron curve (i.e., saturated water vapor pressure versus temperature), is then found in this study. Such a genuine finding clarifies that the dynamics are crucial to the climate (shown in the earlier work) but the thermodynamics adjust. The range of validity of this result is further examined herein. The GCE-modeled tropical domain-averaged q and T fields form a linearly-regressed "q-T" slope that genuinely resides within an ideal range of slopes obtained from the aforementioned formulation. A quantity (denoted as dC2/dC1) representing the derivative between the static energy densities due to temperature (C2) and water vapor (C1) for various quasi-equilibrium states can also be obtained. A dC2/dC1 value near unity obtained for the GCE-modeled tropical simulations implies that the static energy densities due to moisture and temperature only differ by a pure constant for various equilibrium states. An overall q-T relation also including extra-tropical regions is, however, found to have a curvilinear relationship. Accordingly, warm/moist regions favor change in water vapor faster than temperature, while cold/dry regions favor an increase in temperature quicker than water vapor.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lang, S.; Ferrier, B.; Simpson, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2000-01-01
The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was utilized to examine the behavior and response of simulated deep tropical cloud systems that occurred over the west Pacific warm pool region, the Atlantic ocean and the central United States. The periods chosen for simulation were convectively active periods during TOGA-COARE (February 22 1993, December 11-17, 1992; December 19-28, February 9-13, 1993), GATE (September 4, 1974), LBA (January 26 and February 23, 1998), ARM (1997 IOP) and PRESTORM (June 11, 1985). We will examine differences in the microphysics for both warm rain and ice processes (evaporation /sublimation and condensation/ deposition), Q1 (Temperature), Q2 (Water vapor) and Q3 (momentum both U and V) budgets for these three convective events from different large-scale environments. The contribution of stratiform precipitation and its relationship to the vertical shear of the large-scale horizontal wind will also be examined. New improvements to the GCE model (i.e., microphysics: 4ICE two moments and 3ICE one moment; advection schemes) as well as their sensitivity to the model results will be discussed. Preliminary results indicated that various microphysical schemes could have a major impact on stratiform formation as well as the size of convective systems. However, they do not change the major characteristics of the convective systems, such as: arc shape, strong rotational circulation on both ends of system, heavy precipitation along the leading edge of systems.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Loftus, Adrian M.; Tsay, Si-Chee
2015-01-01
This talk presents some of the detailed observations of low-level stratocumulus over northern Vietnam during 7-SEASBASELInE 2013 by SMARTLabs' ACHIEVE W-band cloud radar and other remote sensing instruments. These observations are the first of their kind for this region and will aid in ongoing studies of biomass-burning aerosol impacts on local and regional weather and climate. Preliminary results from simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) with recently implemented triple-moment bulk microphysics to examine the sensitivity of low-level stratocumulus over land to aerosols are also presented. Recommendations for future observational activities in the 7-SEAS northern region in collaboration with international partners will also be discussed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Johnson, Daniel E.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
Interactions between deep tropical clouds over the western Pacific warm pool and the larger-scale environment are key to understanding climate change. Cloud models are an extremely useful tool in simulating and providing statistical information on heat and moisture transfer processes between cloud systems and the environment, and can therefore be utilized to substantially improve cloud parameterizations in climate models. In this paper, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model is used in multi-day simulations of deep tropical convective activity over the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). Large-scale temperature and moisture advective tendencies, and horizontal momentum from the TOGA-COARE Intensive Flux Array (IFA) region, are applied to the GCE version which incorporates cyclical boundary conditions. Sensitivity experiments show that grid domain size produces the largest response to domain-mean temperature and moisture deviations, as well as cloudiness, when compared to grid horizontal or vertical resolution, and advection scheme. It is found that a minimum grid-domain size of 500 km is needed to adequately resolve the convective cloud features. The control experiment shows that the atmospheric heating and moistening is primarily a response to cloud latent processes of condensation/evaporation, and deposition/sublimation, and to a lesser extent, melting of ice particles. Air-sea exchange of heat and moisture is found to be significant, but of secondary importance, while the radiational response is small. The simulated rainfall and atmospheric heating and moistening, agrees well with observations, and performs favorably to other models simulating this case.
Various Numerical Applications on Tropical Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.
2003-01-01
In recent years, increasing attention has been given to cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) for their ability to simulate the radiative-convective system, which plays a significant role in determining the regional heat and moisture budgets in the Tropics. The growing popularity of CRM usage can be credited to its inclusion of crucial and physically relatively realistic features such as explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit cloud-radiation interaction. On the other hand, impacts of the environmental conditions (for example, the large-scale wind fields, heat and moisture advections as well as sea surface temperature) on the convective system can also be plausibly investigated using the CRMs with imposed explicit forcing. In this paper, by basically using a Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, three different studies on tropical convective systems are briefly presented. Each of these studies serves a different goal as well as uses a different approach. In the first study, which uses more of an idealized approach, the respective impacts of the large-scale horizontal wind shear and surface fluxes on the modeled tropical quasi-equilibrium states of temperature and water vapor are examined. In this 2-D study, the imposed large-scale horizontal wind shear is ideally either nudged (wind shear maintained strong) or mixed (wind shear weakened), while the minimum surface wind speed used for computing surface fluxes varies among various numerical experiments. For the second study, a handful of real tropical episodes (TRMM Kwajalein Experiment - KWAJEX, 1999; TRMM South China Sea Monsoon Experiment - SCSMEX, 1998) have been simulated such that several major atmospheric characteristics such as the rainfall amount and its associated stratiform contribution, the Qlheat and Q2/moisture budgets are investigated. In this study, the observed large-scale heat and moisture advections are continuously applied to the 2-D model. The modeled cloud generated from such an approach is termed continuously forced convection or continuous large-scale forced convection. A third study, which focuses on the respective impact of atmospheric components on upper Ocean heat and salt budgets, will be presented in the end. Unlike the two previous 2-D studies, this study employs the 3-D GCE-simulated diabatic source terms (using TOGA COARE observations) - radiation (longwave and shortwave), surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat, and wind stress), and precipitation as input for the Ocean mixed-layer (OML) model.
Mechanisms of diurnal precipitation over the US Great Plains: a cloud resolving model perspective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Myong-In; Choi, Ildae; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kang, In-Sik
2010-02-01
The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lee, M.-I.; Choi, I.; Tao, W.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kang, I.-K.
2010-01-01
The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ott, Lesley E.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Huntrieser, Heidi; Schumann, Ulrich
2006-01-01
The July 21,1998 thunderstonn observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project (EULINOX) project was simulated using the three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The simulation successfully reproduced a number of observed storm features including the splitting of the original cell into a southern cell which developed supercell characteristics, and a northern cell which became multicellular. Output from the GCE simulation was used to drive an offline cloud-scale chemical transport model which calculates tracer transport and includes a parameterization of lightning NO(x) production which uses observed flash rates as input. Estimates of lightning NO(x) production were deduced by assuming various values of production per intracloud and production per cloud-to-ground flash and comparing the results with in-cloud aircraft observations. The assumption that both types of flashes produce 360 moles of NO per flash on average compared most favorably with column mass and probability distribution functions calculated from observations. This assumed production per flash corresponds to a global annual lightning NOx source of 7 Tg N per yr. Chemical reactions were included in the model to evaluate the impact of lightning NO(x), on ozone. During the storm, the inclusion of lightning NOx in the model results in a small loss of ozone (on average less than 4 ppbv) at all model levels. Simulations of the chemical environment in the 24 hours following the storm show on average a small increase in the net production of ozone at most levels resulting from lightning NO(x), maximizing at approximately 5 ppbv per day at 5.5 km. Between 8 and 10.5 km, lightning NO(x) causes decreased net ozone production.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ott, Lesley E.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Huntrieser, Heidi; Schumann, Ulrich
2007-03-01
The 21 July 1998 thunderstorm observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project (EULINOX) project was simulated using the three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The simulation successfully reproduced a number of observed storm features including the splitting of the original cell into a southern cell which developed supercell characteristics and a northern cell which became multicellular. Output from the GCE simulation was used to drive an offline cloud-scale chemical transport model which calculates tracer transport and includes a parameterization of lightning NOx production which uses observed flash rates as input. Estimates of lightning NOx production were deduced by assuming various values of production per intracloud and production per cloud-to-ground flash and comparing the results with in-cloud aircraft observations. The assumption that both types of flashes produce 360 moles of NO per flash on average compared most favorably with column mass and probability distribution functions calculated from observations. This assumed production per flash corresponds to a global annual lightning NOx source of 7 Tg N yr-1. Chemical reactions were included in the model to evaluate the impact of lightning NOx on ozone. During the storm, the inclusion of lightning NOx in the model results in a small loss of ozone (on average less than 4 ppbv) at all model levels. Simulations of the chemical environment in the 24 hours following the storm show on average a small increase in the net production of ozone at most levels resulting from lightning NOx, maximizing at approximately 5 ppbv day-1 at 5.5 km. Between 8 and 10.5 km, lightning NOx causes decreased net ozone production.
Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Posselt, Derek J.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Hou, Arthur Y.; Stephens, Graeme L.
2007-01-01
The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.
The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, X.; Khain, A.; Simpson, S.
2005-01-01
Cloud microphysics are inevitable affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds, Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effect of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bim microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e., pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e., 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, I.; Lau, W.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lau, W.; Jia, Y.; Johnson, D.; Shie, C.-L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, North America and South America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, PLACE allows for the effect A vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1991 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the South China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2007-01-01
Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a superparameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generatio11 regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2006-01-01
Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).
Huang, Xuelian; Deng, Meng; Liu, Mingdong; Cheng, Lei; Exterkate, R.A.M.; Li, Jiyao; Zhou, Xuedong; Ten Cate, Jacob. M.
2017-01-01
Objectives: Galla chinensis water extract (GCE) has been demonstrated to inhibit dental caries by favorably shifting the demineralization/remineralization balance of enamel and inhibiting the biomass and acid formation of dental biofilm. The present study focused on the comparison of composition and anticaries effect of Galla chinensis extracts with different isolation methods, aiming to improve the efficacy of caries prevention. Methods: The composition of water extract (GCE), ethanol extract (eGCE) and commercial tannic acid was compared. High performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-time of flight-mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-TOF-MS) analysis was used to analyze the main ingredients. In vitro pH-cycling regime and polymicrobial biofilms model were used to assess the ability of different Galla chinensis extracts to inhibit enamel demineralization, acid formation and biofilm formation. Results: All the GCE, eGCE and tannic acid contained a high level of total phenolics. HPLC-ESI-TOF-MS analysis showed that the main ingredients of GCE were gallic acid (GA), while eGCE mainly contained 4-7 galloylglucopyranoses (GGs) and tannic acid mainly contained 5-10 GGs. Furthermore, eGCE and tannic acid showed a better effect on inhibiting enamel demineralization, acid formation and biofilm formation compared to GCE. Conclusions: Galla chinensis extracts with higher tannin content were suggested to have higher potential to prevent dental caries. PMID:28979574
SST Variation Due to Interactive Convective-Radiative Processes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-L.; Johnson, D.; Simpson, J.; Li, X.; Sui, C.-H.
2000-01-01
The recent linking of Cloud-Resolving Models (CRMs) to Ocean-Mixed Layer (OML) models has provided a powerful new means of quantifying the role of cloud systems in ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is due to the fact that the CRM can better resolve clouds and cloud systems and allow for explicit cloud-radiation interaction. For example, Anderson (1997) applied an atmospheric forcing associated with a CRM simulated squall line to a 3-D OML model (one way or passive interaction). His results suggested that the spatial variability resulting from the squall forcing can last at least 24 hours when forced with otherwise spatially uniform fluxes. In addition, the sea surface salinity (SSS) variability continuously decreased following the forcing, while some of the SST variability remained when a diurnal mixed layer capped off the surface structure. The forcing used in the OML model, however, focused on shorter time (8 h) and smaller spatial scales (100-120 km). In this study, the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE; 512 x 512 x 23 cu km, 2-km horizontal resolution) is used to simulate convective active episodes occurring in the Western Pacific warm pool and Eastern Atlantic regions. The model is integrated for seven days, and the simulated results are coupled to an OML model to better understand the impact of precipitation and changes in the planetary boundary layer upon SST variation. We will specifically examine and compare the results of linking the OML model with various spatially-averaged outputs from GCE simulations (i.e., 2 km vs. 10-50 km horizontal resolutions), in order to help understand the SST sensitivity to multi-scale influences. This will allow us to assess the importance of explicitly simulated deep and shallow clouds, as well as the subgrid-scale effects (in coarse-model runs) upon SST variation. Results using both 1-D and 2-D OML models will be evaluated to assess the effects of horizontal advection.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Lang, Stephen; Chern, Jiundar; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Fridlind, Ann; Matsui, Toshihisa
2015-01-01
The Goddard microphysics scheme was recently improved by adding a 4th ice class (frozen dropshail). This new 4ICE scheme was implemented and tested in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) for an intense continental squall line and a moderate,less-organized continental case. Simulated peak radar reflectivity profiles were improved both in intensity and shape for both cases as were the overall reflectivity probability distributions versus observations. In this study, the new Goddard 4ICE scheme is implemented into the regional-scale NASA Unified - Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) and tested on an intense mesoscale convective system that occurred during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The NU42WRF simulated radar reflectivities, rainfall intensities, and vertical and horizontal structure using the new 4ICE scheme agree as well as or significantly better with observations than when using previous versions of the Goddard 3ICE (graupel or hail) schemes. In the 4ICE scheme, the bin microphysics-based rain evaporation correction produces more erect convective cores, while modification of the unrealistic collection of ice by dry hail produces narrow and intense cores, allowing more slow-falling snow to be transported rearward. Together with a revised snow size mapping, the 4ICE scheme produces a more horizontally stratified trailing stratiform region with a broad, more coherent light rain area. In addition, the NU-WRF 4ICE simulated radar reflectivity distributions are consistent with and generally superior to those using the GCE due to the less restrictive open lateral boundaries
Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.
2014-12-01
This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.
Numerical simulation of a winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.
2014-09-01
This study analyzes the cause of rare occurrence of winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options, hail or graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. On evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that hail option shows similar precipitation intensity with TRMM observation than the graupel option and is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model simulated output with hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached upto the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of WD. Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W-K.
2003-01-01
Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NACAR) and at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center . At Goddard, a 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE, SCSMEX and KWAJEX using 512 by 512 km domain (with 2 km resolution). The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulations. The reason for the strong similarity between the 2D and 3D CRM simulations is that the same observed large-scale advective tendencies of potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum were used as the main focusing in both the 2D and 3D models. Interestingly, the 2D and 3D versions of the CRM used at CSU showed significant differences in the rainfall and cloud statistics for three ARM cases. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to assess the performance of the super-parameterization technique, (2) calculate and examine the surface energy (especially radiation) and water budgets, and (3) identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.
A Radiosity Approach to Realistic Image Synthesis
1992-12-01
AD-A259 082 AFIT/GCE/ENG/92D-09 A RADIOSITY APPROACH TO REALISTIC IMAGE SYNTHESIS THESIS Richard L. Remington Captain, USAF fl ECTE AFIT/GCE/ENG/92D...09 SJANl 1993U 93-00134 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 93& 1! A -A- AFIT/GCE/ENG/92D-09 A RADIOSITY APPROACH TO REALISTIC IMAGE...assistance in creating the input geometry file for the AWACS aircraft interior. Without his assistance, a good model for the diffuse radiosity implementation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Posselt, Derek J.
The research documented in this study centers around two topics: evaluation of the response of precipitating cloud systems to changes in the tropical climate system, and assimilation of cloud and precipitation information from remote-sensing platforms. The motivation for this work proceeds from the following outstanding problems: (1) Use of models to study the response of clouds to perturbations in the climate system is hampered by uncertainties in cloud microphysical parameterizations. (2) Though there is an ever-growing set of available observations, cloud and precipitation assimilation remains a difficult problem, particularly in the tropics. (3) Though it is widely acknowledged that cloud and precipitation processes play a key role in regulating the Earth's response to surface warming, the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to climate perturbations remains largely unknown. The above issues are addressed in the following manner. First, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to quantify the sensitivity of the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model (CRM) to changes in its cloud odcrnpbymiC8l parameters. TRMM retrievals of precipitation rate, cloud properties, and radiative fluxes and heating rates over the South China Sea are then assimilated into the GCE model to constrain cloud microphysical parameters to values characteristic of convection in the tropics, and the resulting observation-constrained model is used to assess the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to surface warming. The major findings of this study are the following: (1) MCMC provides an effective tool with which to evaluate both model parameterizations and the assumption of Gaussian statistics used in optimal estimation procedures. (2) Statistics of the tropical radiation budget and hydrologic cycle can be used to effectively constrain CRM cloud microphysical parameters. (3) For 2D CRM simulations run with and without shear, the precipitation efficiency of cloud systems increases with increasing sea surface temperature, while the high cloud fraction and outgoing shortwave radiation decrease.
The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Khain, A.; Simpson, S.; Johnson, D.; Li, X.; Remer, L.
2003-01-01
Cloud microphysics are inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e.,pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions.A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Besides the initial differences in aerosol concentration, preliminary results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CCN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size categor, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for the two cases. It is shown that since the low CCN case produces fewer droplets, larger sized develop due to the greater condensational and collectional growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case.
Glutathione redox regulates airway hyperresponsiveness and airway inflammation in mice.
Koike, Yoko; Hisada, Takeshi; Utsugi, Mitsuyoshi; Ishizuka, Tamotsu; Shimizu, Yasuo; Ono, Akihiro; Murata, Yukie; Hamuro, Junji; Mori, Masatomo; Dobashi, Kunio
2007-09-01
Glutathione is the major intracellular redox buffer. We have shown that glutathione redox status, which is the balance between intracellular reduced (GSH) and oxidized (GSSG) glutathione, in antigen-presenting cells (APC) regulates the helper T cell type 1 (Th1)/Th2 balance due to the production of IL-12. Bronchial asthma is a typical Th2 disease. Th2 cells and Th2 cytokines are characteristic of asthma and trigger off an inflammation. Accordingly, we studied the effects of the intracellular glutathione redox status on airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) and allergen-induced airway inflammation in a mouse model of asthma. We used gamma-Glutamylcysteinylethyl ester (gamma-GCE), which is a membrane-permeating GSH precursor, to elevate the intracellular GSH level and GSH/GSSG ratio of mice. In vitro, gamma-GCE pretreatment of human monocytic THP-1 cells elevated the GSH/GSSG ratio and enhanced IL-12(p70) production induced by LPS. In the mouse asthma model, intraperitoneal injection of gamma-GCE elevated the GSH/GSSG ratio of lung tissue and reduced AHR. gamma-GCE reduced levels of IL-4, IL-5, IL-10, and the chemokines eotaxin and RANTES (regulated on activation, normal T cell expressed and secreted) in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, whereas it enhanced the production of IL-12 and IFN-gamma. Histologically, gamma-GCE suppressed eosinophils infiltration. Interestingly, we also found that gamma-GCE directly inhibited chemokine-induced eosinophil chemotaxis without affecting eotaxin receptor chemokine receptor 3 (CCR3) expressions. Taken together, these findings suggest that changing glutathione redox balance, increase in GSH level, and the GSH/GSSG ratio by gamma-GCE, ameliorate bronchial asthma by altering the Th1/Th2 imbalance through IL-12 production from APC and suppressing chemokine production and eosinophil migration itself.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Lang, Stephen; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Fridlind, Ann; Matsui, Toshihisa
2016-01-01
The Goddard microphysics was recently improved by adding a fourth ice class (frozen dropshail). This new 4ICE scheme was developed and tested in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for an intense continental squall line and a moderate, less organized continental case. Simulated peak radar reflectivity profiles were improved in intensity and shape for both cases, as were the overall reflectivity probability distributions versus observations. In this study, the new Goddard 4ICE scheme is implemented into the regional-scale NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model, modified and evaluated for the same intense squall line, which occurred during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). NU-WRF simulated radar reflectivities, total rainfall, propagation, and convective system structures using the 4ICE scheme modified herein agree as well as or significantly better with observations than the original 4ICE and two previous 3ICE (graupel or hail) versions of the Goddard microphysics. With the modified 4ICE, the bin microphysics-based rain evaporation correction improves propagation and in conjunction with eliminating the unrealistic dry collection of icesnow by hail can replicate the erect, narrow, and intense convective cores. Revisions to the ice supersaturation, ice number concentration formula, and snow size mapping, including a new snow breakup effect, allow the modified 4ICE to produce a stronger, better organized system, more snow, and mimic the strong aggregation signature in the radar distributions. NU-WRF original 4ICE simulated radar reflectivity distributions are consistent with and generally superior to those using the GCE due to the less restrictive domain and lateral boundaries.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W. K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.; Shie, C. -L.; Lau, W. K. -M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David O' C. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Côté, Benoit; Belczynski, Krzysztof; Fryer, Chris L.
The role of compact binary mergers as the main production site of r-process elements is investigated by combining stellar abundances of Eu observed in the Milky Way, galactic chemical evolution (GCE) simulations, and binary population synthesis models, and gravitational wave measurements from Advanced LIGO. We compiled and reviewed seven recent GCE studies to extract the frequency of neutron star–neutron star (NS–NS) mergers that is needed in order to reproduce the observed [Eu/Fe] versus [Fe/H] relationship. We used our simple chemical evolution code to explore the impact of different analytical delay-time distribution functions for NS–NS mergers. We then combined our metallicity-dependent population synthesis models with our chemical evolution code to bring their predictions, for both NS–NS mergers and black hole–neutron star mergers, into a GCE context. Finally, we convolved our results with the cosmic star formation history to provide a direct comparison with current and upcoming Advanced LIGO measurements. When assuming that NS–NS mergers are the exclusive r-process sites, and that the ejected r-process mass per merger event is 0.01 Mmore » $${}_{\\odot }$$, the number of NS–NS mergers needed in GCE studies is about 10 times larger than what is predicted by standard population synthesis models. Here, these two distinct fields can only be consistent with each other when assuming optimistic rates, massive NS–NS merger ejecta, and low Fe yields for massive stars. For now, population synthesis models and GCE simulations are in agreement with the current upper limit (O1) established by Advanced LIGO during their first run of observations. Upcoming measurements will provide an important constraint on the actual local NS–NS merger rate, will provide valuable insights on the plausibility of the GCE requirement, and will help to define whether or not compact binary mergers can be the dominant source of r-process elements in the universe.« less
Implications of the Fermi-LAT Pass 8 Galactic Center excess on supersymmetric dark matter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Achterberg, Abraham; van Beekveld, Melissa; Caron, Sascha; Gómez-Vargas, Germán A.; Hendriks, Luc; Ruiz de Austri, Roberto
2017-12-01
The Fermi Collaboration has recently updated their analysis of gamma rays from the center of the Galaxy. They reconfirm the presence of an unexplained emission feature which is most prominent in the region of 1–10 GeV, known as the Galactic Center GeV excess (GCE). Although the GCE is now firmly detected, an interpretation of this emission as a signal of self-annihilating dark matter (DM) particles is not unambiguously possible due to systematic effects in the gamma-ray modeling estimated in the Galactic Plane. In this paper we build a covariance matrix, collecting different systematic uncertainties investigated in the Fermi Collaboration's paper that affect the GCE spectrum. We show that models where part of the GCE is due to annihilating DM is still consistent with the new data. We also re-evaluate the parameter space regions of the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) that can contribute dominantly to the GCE via neutralino DM annihilation. All recent constraints from DM direct detection experiments such as PICO, LUX, PandaX and Xenon1T, limits on the annihilation cross section from dwarf spheroidal galaxies and the Large Hadron Collider limits are considered in this analysis. Due to a slight shift in the energy spectrum of the GC excess with respect to the previous Fermi analysis, and the recent limits from direct detection experiments, we find a slightly shifted parameter region of the MSSM, compared to our previous analysis, that is consistent with the GCE. Neutralinos with a mass between 85–220 GeV can describe the excess via annihilation into a pair of W-bosons or top quarks. Remarkably, there are models with low fine-tuning among the regions that we have found. The complete set of solutions will be probed by upcoming direct detection experiments and with dedicated searches in the upcoming data of the Large Hadron Collider.
Advanced LIGO constraints on neutron star mergers and r-process sites
Côté, Benoit; Belczynski, Krzysztof; Fryer, Chris L.; ...
2017-02-20
The role of compact binary mergers as the main production site of r-process elements is investigated by combining stellar abundances of Eu observed in the Milky Way, galactic chemical evolution (GCE) simulations, and binary population synthesis models, and gravitational wave measurements from Advanced LIGO. We compiled and reviewed seven recent GCE studies to extract the frequency of neutron star–neutron star (NS–NS) mergers that is needed in order to reproduce the observed [Eu/Fe] versus [Fe/H] relationship. We used our simple chemical evolution code to explore the impact of different analytical delay-time distribution functions for NS–NS mergers. We then combined our metallicity-dependent population synthesis models with our chemical evolution code to bring their predictions, for both NS–NS mergers and black hole–neutron star mergers, into a GCE context. Finally, we convolved our results with the cosmic star formation history to provide a direct comparison with current and upcoming Advanced LIGO measurements. When assuming that NS–NS mergers are the exclusive r-process sites, and that the ejected r-process mass per merger event is 0.01 Mmore » $${}_{\\odot }$$, the number of NS–NS mergers needed in GCE studies is about 10 times larger than what is predicted by standard population synthesis models. Here, these two distinct fields can only be consistent with each other when assuming optimistic rates, massive NS–NS merger ejecta, and low Fe yields for massive stars. For now, population synthesis models and GCE simulations are in agreement with the current upper limit (O1) established by Advanced LIGO during their first run of observations. Upcoming measurements will provide an important constraint on the actual local NS–NS merger rate, will provide valuable insights on the plausibility of the GCE requirement, and will help to define whether or not compact binary mergers can be the dominant source of r-process elements in the universe.« less
Global Citizenship Education, Technology, and Being
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gardner-McTaggart, Alexander; Palmer, Nicholas
2018-01-01
Despite the widespread promotion of the global school, it remains unclear as to how citizenship education (global citizenship education, GCE) is developed. Educational bodies such as UNESCO, Oxfam, and the International Baccalaureate are in the full throws of developing models for GCE yet questions remain as to how such a sweeping notion might…
Simultaneous iron and nickel isotopic analyses of presolar silicon carbide grains
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Trappitsch, Reto; Stephan, Thomas; Savina, Michael R.
Aside from recording stellar nucleosynthesis, a few elements in presolar grains can also provide insights into the galactic chemical evolution (GCE) of nuclides. We have studied the carbon, silicon, iron, and nickel isotopic compositions of presolar silicon carbide (SiC) grains from asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars to better understand GCE. Since only the neutron-rich nuclides in these grains have been heavily in uenced by the parent star, the neutron-poor nuclides serve as GCE proxies. Using CHILI, a new resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) instrument, we measured 74 presolar SiC grains for all iron and nickel isotopes. With the CHARISMA instrument,more » 13 presolar SiC grains were analyzed for iron isotopes. All grains were also measured by NanoSIMS for their carbon and silicon isotopic compositions. A comparison of the measured neutron-rich isotopes with models for AGB star nucleosynthesis shows that our measurements are consistent with AGB star predictions for low-mass stars between half-solar and solar metallicity. Furthermore, our measurements give an indication on the 22Ne( ,n) 25Mg reaction rate. In terms of GCE, we nd that the GCE-dominated iron and nickel isotope ratios, 54Fe/56Fe and 60Ni/ 58Ni, correlate with their GCE-dominated counterpart in silicon, 29Si/ 28Si. The measured GCE trends include the Solar System composition, showing that the Solar System is not a special case. However, as seen in silicon and titanium, many presolar SiC grains are more evolved for iron and nickel than the Solar System. This con rms prior ndings and agrees with observations of large stellar samples that a simple age-metallicity relationship for GCE cannot explain the composition of the solar neighborhood.« less
Simultaneous iron and nickel isotopic analyses of presolar silicon carbide grains
Trappitsch, Reto; Stephan, Thomas; Savina, Michael R.; ...
2018-01-01
Aside from recording stellar nucleosynthesis, a few elements in presolar grains can also provide insights into the galactic chemical evolution (GCE) of nuclides. We have studied the carbon, silicon, iron, and nickel isotopic compositions of presolar silicon carbide (SiC) grains from asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars to better understand GCE. Since only the neutron-rich nuclides in these grains have been heavily in uenced by the parent star, the neutron-poor nuclides serve as GCE proxies. Using CHILI, a new resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) instrument, we measured 74 presolar SiC grains for all iron and nickel isotopes. With the CHARISMA instrument,more » 13 presolar SiC grains were analyzed for iron isotopes. All grains were also measured by NanoSIMS for their carbon and silicon isotopic compositions. A comparison of the measured neutron-rich isotopes with models for AGB star nucleosynthesis shows that our measurements are consistent with AGB star predictions for low-mass stars between half-solar and solar metallicity. Furthermore, our measurements give an indication on the 22Ne( ,n) 25Mg reaction rate. In terms of GCE, we nd that the GCE-dominated iron and nickel isotope ratios, 54Fe/56Fe and 60Ni/ 58Ni, correlate with their GCE-dominated counterpart in silicon, 29Si/ 28Si. The measured GCE trends include the Solar System composition, showing that the Solar System is not a special case. However, as seen in silicon and titanium, many presolar SiC grains are more evolved for iron and nickel than the Solar System. This con rms prior ndings and agrees with observations of large stellar samples that a simple age-metallicity relationship for GCE cannot explain the composition of the solar neighborhood.« less
Soil Moisture, Coastline Curvature, and Sea Breeze Initiated Precipitation Over Florida
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Baker, R. David; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo
1999-01-01
Land surface-atmosphere interaction plays a key role in the development of summertime convection and precipitation over the Florida peninsula. Land-ocean temperature contrasts induce sea-breeze circulations along both coasts. Clouds develop along sea-breeze fronts, and significant precipitation can occur during the summer months. However, other factors such as soil moisture distribution and coastline curvature may modulate the timing, location, and intensity of sea breeze initiated precipitation. Here, we investigate the role of soil moisture and coastline curvature on Florida precipitation using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data from the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE) collected on 27 July 1991. Our numerical simulations suggest that a realistic distribution of soil moisture influences the location and intensity of precipitation but not the timing of precipitation. In contrast, coastline curvature affects the timing and location of precipitation but has little influence on peak rainfall rates. However, both factors (soil moisture and coastline curvature) are required to fully account for observed rainfall amounts.
A Robust Multi-Scale Modeling System for the Study of Cloud and Precipitation Processes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2012-01-01
During the past decade, numerical weather and global non-hydrostatic models have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. These microphysical schemes affect the dynamic through the release of latent heat (buoyancy loading and pressure gradient) the radiation through the cloud coverage (vertical distribution of cloud species), and surface processes through rainfall (both amount and intensity). Recently, several major improvements of ice microphysical processes (or schemes) have been developed for cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE, model) and regional scale (Weather Research and Forecast, WRF) model. These improvements include an improved 3-ICE (cloud ice, snow and graupel) scheme (Lang et al. 2010); a 4-ICE (cloud ice, snow, graupel and hail) scheme and a spectral bin microphysics scheme and two different two-moment microphysics schemes. The performance of these schemes has been evaluated by using observational data from TRMM and other major field campaigns. In this talk, we will present the high-resolution (1 km) GeE and WRF model simulations and compared the simulated model results with observation from recent field campaigns [i.e., midlatitude continental spring season (MC3E; 2010), high latitude cold-season (C3VP, 2007; GCPEx, 2012), and tropical oceanic (TWP-ICE, 2006)].
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bisterzo, S.; Travaglio, C.; Wiescher, M.
2017-01-20
The solar s -process abundances have been analyzed in the framework of a Galactic Chemical Evolution (GCE) model. The aim of this work is to implement the study by Bisterzo et al., who investigated the effect of one of the major uncertainties of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) yields, the internal structure of the {sup 13}C pocket. We present GCE predictions of s -process elements computed with additional tests in the light of suggestions provided in recent publications. The analysis is extended to different metallicities, by comparing GCE results and updated spectroscopic observations of unevolved field stars. We verify that themore » GCE predictions obtained with different tests may represent, on average, the evolution of selected neutron-capture elements in the Galaxy. The impact of an additional weak s -process contribution from fast-rotating massive stars is also explored.« less
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fielding, Antony
2002-01-01
Analyzes subject teaching-group effectiveness in English and Welsh General Certification of Education (GCE) Advanced Level prior to a linking to resources; suggests cross-classified multilevel models with weighted random effects for disentangling student, group, and teacher effects; finds that teacher effects are considerable, but cannot find…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stenchikov, Georgiy; Pickering, Kenneth; Decaria, Alex; Tao, W.-K.; Scala, John; Ott, Lesley; Bartels, Diana; Matejka, Thomas
2005-07-01
Vertical mixing of chemical tracers and optically active constituents by deep convection affects regional and global chemical balances in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. This important process is not explicitly resolved in global and regional models and has to be parameterized. However, mixing depends strongly on the spatial structure, strength, and temporal evolution of the particular storm, complicating parameterization of this important effect in the large-scale models. To better quantify dynamic fields and associated mixing processes, we simulate a thunderstorm observed on 12 July 1996 during the STERAO-A (Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols, and Ozone) Deep Convection field project using the Goddard Cloud Ensemble (GCE) model. The 12 July STERAO-A storm had very complex temporal and spatial structure. The meteorological environment and evolution of the storm were significantly different than those of the 10 July STERAO-A storm extensively discussed in previous studies. Our 2-D and 3-D GCE model runs with uniform one-sounding initialization were unable to reproduce the full life cycle of the 12 July storm observed by the CHILL radar system. To describe the storm evolution, we modified the 3-D GCE model to include the effects of terrain and the capability of using nonuniform initial fields. We conducted a series of numerical experiments and reproduced the observed life cycle and fine spatial structure of the storm. The main characteristics of the 3-D simulation of the 12 July storm were compared with observations, with 2-D simulations of the same storm, and with the evolution of the 10 July storm. The simulated 3-D convection appears to be stronger and more realistic than in our 2-D simulations. Having developed in a less unstable environment than the 10 July 1996 STERAO-A storm, our simulation of the 12 July storm produced weaker but sustainable convection that was significantly fed by wind shear instability in the lower troposphere. The time evolution, direction, and speed of propagation of the storm were determined by interaction with the nonuniform background mesoscale flow. For example, storm intensity decreased drastically when the storm left the region with large convective available potential energy. The model appears to be successful in reproducing the rectangular four-cell structure of the convection. The distributions of convergence, vertical vorticity, and position of the inflow level in the later single-cell regime compare favorably with the airborne Doppler radar observations. This analysis allowed us to better understand the role of terrain and mesoscale circulation in the development of a midlatitude deep convective system and associated convective mixing. Wind, temperature, hydrometeor, and turbulent diffusion coefficient data from the cloud model simulations were provided for off-line 3-D cloud-scale chemical transport simulations discussed in the companion paper by DeCaria et al. (2005).
Vlachova, Jana; Tmejova, Katerina; Kopel, Pavel; Korabik, Maria; Zitka, Jan; Hynek, David; Kynicky, Jindrich; Adam, Vojtech; Kizek, Rene
2015-01-01
Modification of carbon materials, especially graphene-based materials, has wide applications in electrochemical detection such as electrochemical lab-on-chip devices. A glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with chemically alternated graphene oxide was used as a working electrode (glassy carbon modified by graphene oxide with sulphur containing compounds and Nafion) for detection of nucleobases in hydrolysed samples (HCl pH = 2.9, 100 °C, 1 h, neutralization by NaOH). It was found out that modification, especially with trithiocyanuric acid, increased the sensitivity of detection in comparison with pure GCE. All processes were finally implemented in a microfluidic chip formed with a 3D printer by fused deposition modelling technology. As a material for chip fabrication, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene was chosen because of its mechanical and chemical stability. The chip contained the one chamber for the hydrolysis of the nucleic acid and another for the electrochemical detection by the modified GCE. This chamber was fabricated to allow for replacement of the GCE. PMID:25621613
Vlachova, Jana; Tmejova, Katerina; Kopel, Pavel; Korabik, Maria; Zitka, Jan; Hynek, David; Kynicky, Jindrich; Adam, Vojtech; Kizek, Rene
2015-01-22
Modification of carbon materials, especially graphene-based materials, has wide applications in electrochemical detection such as electrochemical lab-on-chip devices. A glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with chemically alternated graphene oxide was used as a working electrode (glassy carbon modified by graphene oxide with sulphur containing compounds and Nafion) for detection of nucleobases in hydrolysed samples (HCl pH = 2.9, 100 °C, 1 h, neutralization by NaOH). It was found out that modification, especially with trithiocyanuric acid, increased the sensitivity of detection in comparison with pure GCE. All processes were finally implemented in a microfluidic chip formed with a 3D printer by fused deposition modelling technology. As a material for chip fabrication, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene was chosen because of its mechanical and chemical stability. The chip contained the one chamber for the hydrolysis of the nucleic acid and another for the electrochemical detection by the modified GCE. This chamber was fabricated to allow for replacement of the GCE.
Iwai, Kunihisa; Onodera, Akio; Matsue, Hajime
2004-02-25
The fruit of Viburnum dilatatum Thunb. (gamazumi) was found in a previous study to have strong radical scavenging activity. The present study investigated the antioxidative functions of gamazumi crude extract (GCE) in rats having diabetes induced by the administration of streptozotocin. In rats given water (H(2)O group), plasma levels of glucose, total cholesterol, and lipid peroxide (TBARS) and erythrocyte levels of TBARS increased with time over the experimental period of 10 weeks. These increases were inhibited in rats given GCE (GCE group). After 10 weeks, hepatic, renal, and pancreatic TBARS in the GCE group were significantly lower than those in the H(2)O group. GCE contains a high concentration of polyphenols, and it is expected that they are the active components. These results demonstrate that GCE has an inhibitory effect on the oxidative stress induced by diabetes and suggest that GCE may be useful for the prevention of diabetic complications. Furthermore, as the increase of plasma glucose and total cholesterol was inhibited in the GCE group, GCE may also have anti-hyperglycemic activity in diabetes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.
2017-12-01
The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm has been used to estimate cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics into higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. In response, the CSH algorithm and its LUTs have been revised both to improve the retrievals in the Tropics as well as expand retrievals to higher latitudes. For the Tropics, the GCE simulations used to build the LUTs were upgraded using larger 2D model domains (512 vs 256 km) and a new, improved Goddard 4-ice scheme as well as expanded with additional cases (4 land and 6 ocean in total). The new tropical LUTs are also re-built using additional metrics. Besides surface type, conditional rain intensity and stratiform fraction, the new LUTs incorporate echo top heights and low-level (0-2 km) vertical reflectivity gradients. CSH retrievals in the Tropics based on the new LUTs show significant differences from previous iterations using TRMM data or the old LUT metrics. For the Extra-tropics, 6 NU-WRF simulations of synoptic events (3 East Coast and 3 West Coast), including snow, were used to build new extra-tropical CSH LUTs. The LUT metrics for the extra-tropics are based on radar characteristics and freezing level height. The extra-tropical retrievals are evaluated with a self-consistency check approach using the model heating as `truth,' and freezing level height is used to transition CSH retrievals from the Tropics to Extra-tropics. Retrieved zonal average heating structures in the Extra-tropics are presented and show distinct differences from those in the Tropics.
Supramolecular interactions of oxidative stress biomarker glutathione with fluorone black.
Hepel, Maria; Stobiecka, Magdalena
2018-03-05
Oxidative stress biomarkers, including glutathione (GSH) and related compounds, are involved in a variety of interactions enabling redox potential maintenance in living cells and protection against radicals. Since the oxidative stress is promoting and, in many cases, inducing serious illnesses, monitoring of GSH levels can aid in diagnostics and disease prevention. Herein, we report on the discovery of the formation of a supramolecular ensemble of GSH with fluorone black (9-phenyl fluorone, FB) which is optically active and enables sensitive determination of GSH by resonance elastic light scattering (RELS). We have found that supramolecular interactions of GSH with FB can be probed with spectroscopic, RELS, and electrochemical methods. Our investigations show that RELS intensity for FB solutions increases with GSH concentration while fluorescence emission of FB is not affected, as quenching begins only above 0.8mM GSH. The UV-Vis difference spectra show a positive peak at 383nm and a negative peak at 458nm, indicating a higher-energy absorbing complex in comparison to the non-bonded FB host. Supramolecular interactions of FB with GSH have also been corroborated by electrochemical measurements involving two configurations of FB-GSH ensembles on electrodes: (i) an inverted orientation on Au-coated quartz crystal piezoelectrode (Au@SG-FB), with strong thiolate bonding to gold, and (ii) a non-inverted orientation on glassy carbon electrode (GCE@FB-GS), with weak π-π stacking attachment and efficient charge mediation through the ensemble. The formation of a supramolecular ensemble with hydrogen bonding has also been confirmed by quantum mechanical calculations. The discovery of supramolecular FB-GSH ensemble formation enables elucidating the mechanisms of strong RELS responses, changes in UV-Vis absorption spectra, and the electrochemical reactivity. Also, it provides new insights to the understanding of the efficient charge-transfer in redox potential homeostasis which is likely based on an intermediate formation of a similar type of supramolecular ensembles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Supramolecular interactions of oxidative stress biomarker glutathione with fluorone black
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hepel, Maria; Stobiecka, Magdalena
2018-03-01
Oxidative stress biomarkers, including glutathione (GSH) and related compounds, are involved in a variety of interactions enabling redox potential maintenance in living cells and protection against radicals. Since the oxidative stress is promoting and, in many cases, inducing serious illnesses, monitoring of GSH levels can aid in diagnostics and disease prevention. Herein, we report on the discovery of the formation of a supramolecular ensemble of GSH with fluorone black (9-phenyl fluorone, FB) which is optically active and enables sensitive determination of GSH by resonance elastic light scattering (RELS). We have found that supramolecular interactions of GSH with FB can be probed with spectroscopic, RELS, and electrochemical methods. Our investigations show that RELS intensity for FB solutions increases with GSH concentration while fluorescence emission of FB is not affected, as quenching begins only above 0.8 mM GSH. The UV-Vis difference spectra show a positive peak at 383 nm and a negative peak at 458 nm, indicating a higher-energy absorbing complex in comparison to the non-bonded FB host. Supramolecular interactions of FB with GSH have also been corroborated by electrochemical measurements involving two configurations of FB-GSH ensembles on electrodes: (i) an inverted orientation on Au-coated quartz crystal piezoelectrode (Au@SG-FB), with strong thiolate bonding to gold, and (ii) a non-inverted orientation on glassy carbon electrode (GCE@FB-GS), with weak π-π stacking attachment and efficient charge mediation through the ensemble. The formation of a supramolecular ensemble with hydrogen bonding has also been confirmed by quantum mechanical calculations. The discovery of supramolecular FB-GSH ensemble formation enables elucidating the mechanisms of strong RELS responses, changes in UV-Vis absorption spectra, and the electrochemical reactivity. Also, it provides new insights to the understanding of the efficient charge-transfer in redox potential homeostasis which is likely based on an intermediate formation of a similar type of supramolecular ensembles.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yhnell, Emma; Wood, Heather; Baker, Mathew; Amici-Dargan, Sheila; Taylor, Chris; Randerson, Peter; Shore, Andrew
2016-01-01
Since the introduction of the Welsh Baccalaureate Advanced Diploma Qualification (WBQ) in 2003, an increasing number of students are applying to higher education institutions (HEIs) with this qualification. The advanced-level WBQ is regarded as equivalent to one General Certificate of Education A-Level (GCE A-Level). This study assesses the impact of attaining the WBQ in addition to three GCE A-Levels on overall university degree performance in comparison to attaining four GCE A-Levels, in three cohorts of undergraduate students (Year 1 = 318, Year 2 = 280, Year 3 = 236) studying Biosciences from 2005 to 2011 at a UK HEI. Binary logistic regression was used to compare the academic attainment of students who had achieved four GCE A-Levels to those who had achieved three GCE A-Levels in addition to the WBQ. Comparisons were also made between students who had achieved three GCE A-Levels and those who had achieved three GCE A-Levels in addition to the WBQ. The results suggest that students who achieved the WBQ qualification in its current form, in addition to three GCE A-Levels, performed less well academically in undergraduate studies than those who achieved four GCE A-Levels. Furthermore, this effect was still present when the balance between coursework and examination was considered, and when students who had achieved the WBQ in addition to three GCE A-Levels were compared to students who had achieved three GCE A-Levels.
WANG, LU-FEI; LUO, FENG; XUE, CHAO-RAN; DENG, MENG; CHEN, CHEN; WU, HAO
2016-01-01
Galla chinensis extract (GCE), a naturally-derived agent, has a significant inhibitory effect on cariogenic bacteria. The present study aims to evaluate the antibacterial effect and shear bond strength of an orthodontic adhesive cement containing GCE. A resin-modified glass ionomer cement incorporated GCE at five mass fractions (0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, and 0.8%) to prepare GCE-containing cement for analysis. For the agar diffusion test, cement specimens were placed on agar disk inoculated with Streptococcus mutans (strain ATCC 25175). Following 48 h incubation, the inhibition halo diameter was measured. To assess bacteria colonization susceptibility, S. mutans adhesion to cement specimens was detected by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) following 48 h incubation. To evaluate bond strength, a total of 50 metal brackets were bonded on premolar surfaces by using cement (10 teeth/group). Following immersion in an artificial saliva for 3 days, shear bond strength (SBS) was measured. The results demonstrated that GCE-containing samples exhibited a larger bacterial inhibition halo than control, and the inhibition zone increased as the GCE mass fraction increased. SEM analysis demonstrated that S. mutans presented a weaker adherent capacity to all GCE-containing cements compared with control, but the difference between each GCE-containing group was not significant. SBS values of each GCE-containing group exhibited no difference compared with the control. In conclusion, GCE-containing adhesive cement exhibits a promising inhibitory effect on S. mutans growth and adhesion. Without compromising bond strength, adding GCE in adhesive cement may be an attractive option for preventing white spot lesions during orthodontic treatment. PMID:27073642
The Influence of Soil Moisture and Wind on Rainfall Distribution and Intensity in Florida
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Baker, R. David; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo
1998-01-01
Land surface processes play a key role in water and energy budgets of the hydrological cycle. For example, the distribution of soil moisture will affect sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn may dramatically influence the location and intensity of precipitation. However, mean wind conditions also strongly influence the distribution of precipitation. The relative importance of soil moisture and wind on rainfall location and intensity remains uncertain. Here, we examine the influence of soil moisture distribution and wind distribution on precipitation in the Florida peninsula using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model Coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data collected on 27 July 1991 in central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). The idealized numerical experiments consider a block of land (the Florida peninsula) bordered on the east and on the west by ocean. The initial soil moisture distribution is derived from an offline PLACE simulation, and the initial environmental wind profile is determined from the CaPE sounding network. Using the factor separation technique, the precise contribution of soil moisture and wind to rainfall distribution and intensity is determined.
Glycine facilitates gamma-glutamylcysteinylethyl ester-mediated increase in liver glutathione level.
Nishida, K; Ohta, Y; Ishiguro, I
1997-08-27
gamma-Glutamylcysteinylethyl ester (gamma-GCE) increases reduced glutathione (GSH) levels in GSH-depleted rat hepatocytes. Because glycine, a constituent of GSH, exists at 0.3 to 0.4 mM in rat plasma, we examined the influence of glycine added to the medium on the action of gamma-GCE to increase GSH levels in the rat hepatocytes. Glycine (0.2-0.8 mM) dose-dependently enhanced gamma-GCE-mediated increase in intracellular GSH levels with an increase in intracellular gamma-GCE levels. These results indicate that exogenous glycine facilitates gamma-GCE-mediated increase in intracellular GSH levels in rat hepatocytes possibly by enhancing the uptake of gamma-GCE into the cells.
Fernandez-Pineda, I; Ortega-Laureano, L; Wu, H; Wu, J; Sandoval, J A; Rao, B N; Shochat, S J; Davidoff, A M
2016-06-01
Maintaining long-term central venous catheters (CVCs) in children undergoing chemotherapy can be challenging. Guidewire catheter exchange (GCE) replaces a CVC without repeat venipuncture. This study evaluated the indications, success rate, and complications of GCE in a large cohort of pediatric cancer patients. Medical records of pediatric cancer patients who underwent GCE at our institution between 2003 and 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. Variables analyzed included gender, age at GCE, primary cancer diagnosis, indication for GCE, absolute neutrophil count (ANC) at GCE, vein used, success rate, and postoperative complications (<30 days after exchange). A total of 435 GCEs performed in 407 patients (230 males and 177 females) were reviewed. Median age at GCE was 8 years (range, 0.2-24). Acute lymphoblastic leukemia was the most common diagnosis (50.6%). The primary indication for GCE was the desire to have an alternative type of CVC (71%). Other indications included catheter displacement (17%), catheter malfunction (11%), and catheter infection (1%). Median ANC at GCE was 2,581/mm(3) (range, 0-43,400). Left subclavian vein was more commonly used (57.7%). The success rate of GCE was 93.4% (406 of 435 procedures, 95% confidence interval: 91.0-97.5%). A total of 33 (7.5%) postoperative complications occurred including central line associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) (n = 20, 4.5%), catheter dislodgement (n = 6, 1.4%), and catheter malfunction (n = 7, 1.6%). We conclude that GCE in pediatric cancer patients is associated with a high success rate and a low risk of complications. The most common postoperative complication, CLABSI, occurred at a rate significantly lower than following de novo CVC placement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Generation and characterization of Lhx9 – GFPCreERT2 knock-in mouse line
Xie, Xiaoling; Deng, Min; Gan, Lin
2014-01-01
Summary LHX9 is a LIM-homeodomain transcription factor essential for the development of gonads, spinal cord interneurons, and thalamic neurons to name a few. We recently reported the expression of LHX9 in retinal amacrine cells during development. In this study, we generated an Lhx9 - GFPCreERT2 (GCE) knock-in mouse line by knocking-in a GCE cassette at the Lhx9 locus, thus inactivating endogenous Lhx9. Lhx9GCE/+ mice were viable, fertile, and displayed no overt phenotypical characteristics. Lhx9GCE/GCE mice were all phenotypically female, smaller in size, viable, but infertile. The specificity and efficacy of the Lhx9-GCE mouse line was verified by crossing it to a Rosa26 - tdTomato reporter mouse line, which reveals the Cre recombinase activities in retinal amacrine cells, developing limbs, testis, hippocampal neurons, thalamic neurons, and cerebellar neurons. Taken together, the Lhx9-GCE mouse line could serve as a beneficial tool for lineage tracing and gene manipulation experiments. PMID:25112520
Kohan, Leila Mirsaleh; Meesungnoen, Jintana; Sanguanmith, Sunuchakan; Meesat, Ridthee; Jay-Gerin, Jean-Paul
2014-05-01
The stochastic modeling of the (60)Co γ/fast-electron radiolysis of the ceric-cerous chemical dosimeter has been performed as a function of temperature from 25-350°C. The system used is a dilute solution of ceric sulfate and cerous sulfate in aqueous 0.4 M sulfuric acid. In this system, H(•) (or HO2(•) in the presence of dissolved oxygen) and H2O2 produced by the radiolytic decomposition of water both reduce Ce(4+) ions to Ce(3+) ions, while (•)OH radicals oxidize the Ce(3+) present in the solution back to Ce(4+). The net Ce(3+) yield is given by G(Ce(3+)) = g(H(•)) + 2 g(H2O2) - g((•)OH), where the primary (or "escape") yields of H(•), H2O2 and (•)OH are represented by lower case g's. At room temperature, G(Ce(3+)) has been established to be 2.44 ± 0.8 molecules/100 eV. In this work, we investigated the effect of temperature on the yield of Ce(3+) and on the underlying chemical reaction kinetics using Monte Carlo track chemistry simulations. The simulations showed that G(Ce(3+)) is time dependent, a result of the differences in the lifetimes of the reactions that make up the radiolysis mechanism. Calculated G(Ce(3+)) values were found to decrease almost linearly with increasing temperature up to about 250°C, and are in excellent agreement with available experimental data. In particular, our calculations confirmed previous estimated values by Katsumura et al. (Radiat Phys Chem 1988; 32:259-63) showing that G(Ce(3+)) at ∼250°C is about one third of its value at room temperature. Above ∼250°C, our model predicted that G(Ce(3+)) would drop markedly with temperature until, instead of Ce(4+) reduction, Ce(3+) oxidation is observed. This drop is shown to occur as a result of the reaction of hydrogen atoms with water in the homogeneous chemical stage.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.-H.; Shie, C.-L.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.
Baytak, Aysegul Kutluay; Teker, Tugce; Duzmen, Sehriban; Aslanoglu, Mehmet
2016-09-01
An electrochemical sensor was prepared by modifying a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) with a composite of yttrium (III) oxide nanoparticles (Y2O3NPs) and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) for the determination of acetaminophen (ACT). Compared with a bare GCE and CNTs/GCE, the Y2O3NPs/CNTs/GCE exhibited a well-defined redox couple for ACT and highly enhanced the current response. The separations in the anodic and cathodic peak potentials (ΔEp) for ACT were 552mV, 24mV and 10mV at ba4re GCE, CNTs/GCE and Y2O3NPs/CNTs/GCE, respectively. The observation of only 10mV of ΔEp for ACT at Y2O3NPs/CNTs/GCE was a clear indication of a great acceleration of the electrode process compared to bare GCE and GCE modified with CNTs. Also, l-ascorbic acid (l-AA) and l-tyrosine (l-TRY) did not interfere with the selective determination of ACT. Square wave voltammetry (SWV) was performed for the quantification of ACT. A linear plot was obtained for current responses versus the concentrations of ACT over the range from 1.0×10(-10) to 1.8×10(-8)M with a detection limit of 3.0×10(-11)M (based on 3Sb/m). The proposed composite material provided high electrocatalytic activity, improved voltammetric behavior, good selectivity and good reproducibility. The accurate quantification of ACT makes the proposed electrode of great interest for the public health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
He, Juan; Lu, Xingping; Yu, Jie; Wang, Li; Song, Yonghai
2016-07-01
A novel Co(OH)2/glassy carbon electrode (GCE) has been fabricated via metal-organic framework (MOF)-directed method. In the strategy, the Co(BTC, 1,3,5-benzentricarboxylic acid) MOFs/GCE was firstly prepared by alternately immersing GCE in Co2+ and BTC solution based on a layer-by-layer method. And then, the Co(OH)2 with hierarchical flake nanostructure/GCE was constructed by immersing Co(BTC) MOFs/GCE into 0.1 M NaOH solution at room temperature. Such strategy improves the distribution of hierarchical Co(OH)2 nanostructures on electrode surface greatly, enhances the stability of nanomaterials on the electrode surface, and increases the use efficiency of the Co(OH)2 nanostructures. Scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction, energy dispersive spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and Raman spectra were used to characterize the Co(BTC) MOFs/GCE and Co(OH)2/GCE. Based on the hierarchical Co(OH)2 nanostructures/GCE, a novel and sensitive nonenzymatic glucose sensor was developed. The good performance of the resulted sensor toward the detection of glucose was ascribed to hierarchical flake nanostructures, good mechanical stability, excellent distribution, and large specific surface area of Co(OH)2 nanostructures. The proposed preparation method is simple, efficient, and cheap .
Bernardo, Travis J.; Dubrovsky, Edward B.
2012-01-01
Juvenile hormone (JH) has been implicated in many developmental processes in holometabolous insects, but its mechanism of signaling remains controversial. We previously found that in Drosophila Schneider 2 cells, the nuclear receptor FTZ-F1 is required for activation of the E75A gene by JH. Here, we utilized insect two-hybrid assays to show that FTZ-F1 interacts with two JH receptor candidates, the bHLH-PAS paralogs MET and GCE, in a JH-dependent manner. These interactions are severely reduced when helix 12 of the FTZ-F1 activation function 2 (AF2) is removed, implicating AF2 as an interacting site. Through homology modeling, we found that MET and GCE possess a C-terminal α-helix featuring a conserved motif LIXXL that represents a novel nuclear receptor (NR) box. Docking simulations supported by two-hybrid experiments revealed that FTZ-F1·MET and FTZ-F1·GCE heterodimer formation involves a typical NR box-AF2 interaction but does not require the canonical charge clamp residues of FTZ-F1 and relies primarily on hydrophobic contacts, including a unique interaction with helix 4. Moreover, we identified paralog-specific features, including a secondary interaction site found only in MET. Our findings suggest that a novel NR box enables MET and GCE to interact JH-dependently with the AF2 of FTZ-F1. PMID:22249180
Roshan, Hanieh; Nikpayam, Omid; Sedaghat, Meghdad; Sohrab, Golbon
2018-02-01
This study was conducted to elucidate the effects of decaffeinated green coffee bean extract (GCE) on anthropometric indices, glycaemic control, blood pressure, lipid profile, insulin resistance and appetite in patients with the metabolic syndrome (Mets). Subjects were randomly allocated to consume 400 mg GCE or placebo capsules twice per d for 8 weeks. Both groups were advised to follow an energy balanced diet. After GCE supplementation, systolic blood pressure (SBP) significantly reduced compared with the placebo group (-13·76 (sd 8·48) v. -6·56 (sd 9·58) mmHg, P=0·01). Also, GCE treatment significantly reduced fasting blood glucose (FBS) (-5·15 (sd 60·22) v. 29·42 (sd 40·01) mg/dl (-0·28 (SD 3·34) v. 1·63 (SD 2·22) mmol/l); P=0·03) and homoeostatic model of assessment of insulin resistance in comparison to placebo (-1·41 (sd 3·33) v. 1·23 (sd 3·84), P=0·02). In addition, waist circumference (-2·40 (sd 2·54) v. -0·66 (sd 1·17) cm, P=0·009) and appetite score (-1·44 (sd 1·72) v. -0·2 (sd 1·32), P=0·01) of the individuals supplemented with GCE indicated a significant decline. Besides, weight and BMI reduction in the intervention group was almost twice as much as the placebo group; however, this discrepancy was marginally significant (weight: -2·08 (sd 2·11) v. -0·92 (sd 1·30) kg, P=0·05). No difference was observed in terms of glycated Hb (HbA1c) percentage and lipid profile parameters between the two groups. To sum up, GCE administration had an ameliorating effect on some of the Mets components such as high SBP, high FBS and Mets main aetiological factors including insulin resistance and abdominal obesity. Furthermore, GCE supplementation could reduce appetite level.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.
2006-01-01
Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NOAA GFDL, the U.K. Met. Office, Colorado State University and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. An improved 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was recently used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (september 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (May 18-26, June 2-11, 1998) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 by 512 km domain and 41 vertical layers. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the differences and similarities in the simulated precipitation processes and their associated surface and water energy budgets in TOGA COARE, GATE, KWAJEX, and SCSMEX, and (2) to asses the impact of microphysics, radiation budget and surface fluxes on the organization of convection in tropics.
A Multi-scale Modeling System: Developments, Applications and Critical Issues
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiundar; Atlas, Robert; Randall, David; Lin, Xin; Khairoutdinov, Marat; Li, Jui-Lin; Waliser, Duane E.; Hou, Arthur; Peters-Lidard, Christa;
2006-01-01
A multi-scale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces the conventional cloud parameterizations with a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of a GCM, constitutes a new and promising approach. The MMF can provide for global coverage and two-way interactions between the CRMs and their parent GCM. The GCM allows global coverage and the CRM allows explicit simulation of cloud processes and their interactions with radiation and surface processes. A new MMF has been developed that is based the Goddard finite volume GCM (fvGCM) and the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. This Goddard MMF produces many features that are similar to another MMF that was developed at Colorado State University (CSU), such as an improved .surface precipitation pattern, better cloudiness, improved diurnal variability over both oceans and continents, and a stronger, propagating Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) compared to their parent GCMs using conventional cloud parameterizations. Both MMFs also produce a precipitation bias in the western Pacific during Northern Hemisphere summer. However, there are also notable differences between two MMFs. For example, the CSU MMF simulates less rainfall over land than its parent GCM. This is why the CSU MMF simulated less overall global rainfall than its parent GCM. The Goddard MMF overestimates global rainfall because of its oceanic component. Some critical issues associated with the Goddard MMF are presented in this paper.
What the Milky Way's dwarfs tell us about the Galactic Center extended gamma-ray excess
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keeley, Ryan E.; Abazajian, Kevork N.; Kwa, Anna; Rodd, Nicholas L.; Safdi, Benjamin R.
2018-05-01
The Milky Way's Galactic Center harbors a gamma-ray excess that is a candidate signal of annihilating dark matter. Dwarf galaxies remain predominantly dark in their expected commensurate emission. In this work we quantify the degree of consistency between these two observations through a joint likelihood analysis. In doing so we incorporate Milky Way dark matter halo profile uncertainties, as well as an accounting of diffuse gamma-ray emission uncertainties in dark matter annihilation models for the Galactic Center extended gamma-ray excess (GCE) detected by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope. The preferred range of annihilation rates and masses expands when including these unknowns. Even so, using two recent determinations of the Milky Way halo's local density leaves the GCE preferred region of single-channel dark matter annihilation models to be in strong tension with annihilation searches in combined dwarf galaxy analyses. A third, higher Milky Way density determination, alleviates this tension. Our joint likelihood analysis allows us to quantify this inconsistency. We provide a set of tools for testing dark matter annihilation models' consistency within this combined data set. As an example, we test a representative inverse Compton sourced self-interacting dark matter model, which is consistent with both the GCE and dwarfs.
Primo, Emiliano N; Oviedo, M Belén; Sánchez, Cristián G; Rubianes, María D; Rivas, Gustavo A
2014-10-01
We report the quantification of promethazine (PMZ) using glassy carbon electrodes (GCE) modified with bamboo-like multi-walled carbon nanotubes (bCNT) dispersed in double stranded calf-thymus DNA (dsDNA) (GCE/bCNT-dsDNA). Cyclic voltammetry measurements demonstrated that PMZ presents a thin film-confined redox behavior at GCE/bCNT-dsDNA, opposite to the irreversibly-adsorbed behavior obtained at GCE modified with bCNT dispersed in ethanol (GCE/bCNT). Differential pulse voltammetry-adsorptive stripping with medium exchange experiments performed with GCE/bCNT-dsDNA and GCE modified with bCNTs dispersed in single-stranded calf-thymus DNA (ssDNA) confirmed that the interaction between PMZ and bCNT-dsDNA is mainly hydrophobic. These differences are due to the intercalation of PMZ within the dsDNA that supports the bCNTs, as evidenced from the bathochromic displacement of UV-Vis absorption spectra of PMZ and quantum dynamics calculations at DFTB level. The efficient accumulation of PMZ at GCE/bCNT-dsDNA made possible its sensitive quantification at nanomolar levels (sensitivity: (3.50±0.05)×10(8) μA·cm(-2)·M(-1) and detection limit: 23 nM). The biosensor was successfully used for the determination of PMZ in a pharmaceutical product with excellent correlation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Wang, Jin; Yang, Beibei; Zhong, Jiatai; Yan, Bo; Zhang, Ke; Zhai, Chunyang; Shiraishi, Yukihide; Du, Yukou; Yang, Ping
2017-07-01
A cubic Pd and reduced graphene oxide modified glassy carbon electrode (Pd/RGO/GCE) was fabricated to simultaneously detect dopamine (DA) and uric acid (UA) by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and different pulse voltammetry (DPV) methods. Compared with Pd/GCE and RGO/GCE, the Pd/RGO/GCE exhibited excellent electrochemical activity in electrocatalytic behaviors. Performing the Pd/RGO/GCE in CV measurement, the well-defined oxidation peak potentials separation between DA and UA reached to 145mV. By using the differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) technique, the calibration curves for DA and UA were found linear with the concentration range of 0.45-421μM and 6-469.5μM and the detection limit (S/N =3) were calculated to be 0.18μM and 1.6μM, respectively. Furthermore, the Pd/RGO/GCE displayed high selectivity when it was applied into the determination of DA and UA even though in presence of high concentration of interferents. Additionally, the prepared electrochemical sensor of Pd/RGO/GCE demonstrated a practical feasibility in rat urine and serum samples determination. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Betancourt, Laura M; Yang, Wei; Brodsky, Nancy L; Gallagher, Paul R; Malmud, Elsa K; Giannetta, Joan M; Farah, Martha J; Hurt, Hallam
2011-01-01
Preclinical studies of gestational cocaine exposure (GCE) show evidence of changes in brain function at the anatomical, physiological, and behavioral levels, to include effects on developing dopaminergic systems. In contrast, human studies have produced less consistent results, with most showing small effects or no effects on developmental outcomes. Important changes in brain structure and function occur through adolescence, therefore it is possible that prenatal cocaine exposure has latent effects on neurocognitive (NC) outcome that do not manifest until adolescence or young adulthood. We examined NC function using a set of 5 tasks designed to tap 4 different systems: inhibitory control, working memory, receptive language, and incidental memory. For each NC task, data were collected longitudinally at ages 12, 14.5 and 17 years and examined using generalized estimating equations. One hundred and nine children completed at least two of the three evaluations. Covariates included in the final model were assessment number, gender, participant age at first assessment, caregiver depression, and two composites from the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (HOME), Environmental Stimulation and Parental Nurturance. We found no cocaine effects on inhibitory control, working memory, or receptive language (p=0.18). GCE effects were observed on incidental face memory task (p=0.055), and GCE by assessment number interaction effects were seen on the incidental word memory task (p=0.031). Participant performance on inhibitory control, working memory, and receptive language tasks improved over time. HOME Environmental Stimulation composite was associated with better receptive language functioning. With a larger sample size smaller differences between groups may have been detected. This report shows no evidence of latent effects of GCE on inhibitory control, working memory, or receptive language. GCE effects were observed on the incidental face memory task, and GCE by assessment number interaction effects was seen on the incidental word memory task. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Nakagawa, Kazuharu; Matsuo, Koichiro; Takagi, Daisuke; Morita, Yu; Ooka, Takafumi; Hironaka, Shouji; Mukai, Yoshiharu
2017-01-01
Elderly individuals face the risk of reductions in saliva secretion and occlusal force caused by systemic diseases or medications that can eventually result in malnutrition and systemic complications. We tested the hypothesis that regular gum chewing exercises (GCE) would enhance saliva secretion and occlusal force in an elderly population. A total of 12 community-dwelling elderly individuals (3 men and 9 women) participated in this study after providing informed consent. Participants carried out GCE regimens using a soft gum (GCE-S) or hard gum (GCE-H) for 2 weeks each, with a 2-week rest period between trials. Mucosal moisture on the tongue surface, resting saliva, and occlusal force were measured before and after each test gum, and changes in parameters at relevant time-points were statistically analyzed. Differences in each measurement item were assessed using the Friedman test for before and after the GCE. We used the Holm's correction for multiple comparisons if the Friedman test results were significant. The critical value for rejecting the null hypothesis was set at P < 0.05. Resting saliva secretion significantly increased after GCE-S, returned to baseline levels during the rest period and significantly increased again after GCE-H. Mucosal moisture and occlusal force followed a similar trend, with a significant rise after GCE-H. The results of the present study suggest that GCE can increase resting saliva secretion and occlusal force in elderly individuals. Further investigations are required on the appropriate use of soft and hard gums to address oral frailty in elderly individuals. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 48-53. © 2015 The Authors. Geriatrics & Gerontology International published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Japan Geriatrics Society.
Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes Over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Johnson, D.; Simpson, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the topics. Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate model simulate processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMs) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and clouds systems. The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momentum budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysics scheme.
Mustoe, Aaryn C; Taylor, Jack H; Birnie, Andrew K; Huffman, Michelle C; French, Jeffrey A
2014-09-01
Both gestational cortisol exposure (GCE) and variability in postnatal environments can shape the later-life behavioral and endocrine outcomes of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. We examined the influence of GCE and social play on HPA functioning in developing marmosets. Maternal urinary cortisol samples were collected across pregnancy to determine GCE for 28 marmoset offspring (19 litters). We administered a social separation stressor to offspring at 6, 12, and 18 months of age, during which we collected urinary cortisol samples and behavioral observations. Increased GCE was associated with increased basal cortisol levels and cortisol reactivity, but the strength of this relationship decreased across age. Increased social play was associated with decreased basal cortisol levels and a marginally greater reduction in cortisol reactivity as offspring aged, regardless of offspring GCE. Thus, GCE is associated with HPA functioning, but socially enriching postnatal environments can alter the effects associated with increased fetal exposure to glucocorticoids. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Inhomogeneous chemical evolution of r-process elements
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wehmeyer, B., E-mail: benjamin.wehmeyer@unibas.ch; Thielemann, F.-K.; Pignatari, M.
2016-06-21
We report the results of a galactic chemical evolution (GCE) study for r-process- and alpha elements. For this work, we used the inhomogeneous GCE model ”ICE”, which allows to keep track of the galactic abundances of elements produced by different astrophysical sites. The main input parameters for this study were: a) The Neutron Star Merger (NSM) coalescence time scale, the probability of NSMs, and for the sub-class of ”magneto-rotationally driven Supernovae” (”Jet-SNe”), their occurence rate in comparison to ”standard” Supernovae (SNe).
Detecting Aerosol Effect on Deep Precipitation Systems: A Modeling Study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, X.; Tao, W.; Khain, A.; Kummerow, C.; Simpson, J.
2006-05-01
Urban cities produce high concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols. These aerosols are generally hygroscopic and may serve as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN). This study focuses on the aerosol indirect effect on the deep convective systems over the land. These deep convective systems contribute to the majority of the summer time rainfall and are important for local hydrological cycle and weather forecast. In a companion presentation (Tao et al.) in this session, the mechanisms of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in deep convective systems are explored using cloud-resolving model simulations. Here these model results will be analyzed to provide guidance to the detection of the impact of aerosols as CCN on summer time, deep convections using the currently available observation methods. The two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model with an explicit microphysical scheme has been used to simulate the aerosol effect on deep precipitation systems. This model simulates the size distributions of aerosol particles, as well as cloud, rain, ice crystals, snow, graupel, and hail explicitly. Two case studies are analyzed: a midlatitude summer time squall in Oklahoma, and a sea breeze convection in Florida. It is shown that increasing the CCN number concentration does not affect the rainfall structure and rain duration in these two cases. The total surface rainfall rate is reduced in the squall case, but remains essentially the same in the sea breeze case. For the long-lived squall system with a significant portion of the stratiform rain, the surface rainfall PDF (probability density function) distribution is more sensitive to the change of the initial CCN concentrations compared with the total surface rainfall. The possibility of detecting the aerosol indirect effect in deep precipitation systems from the space is also studied in this presentation. The hydrometeors fields from the GCE model simulations are used as inputs to a microwave radiative transfer model. It is found that Tb at higher frequencies (35 GHz and 85 GHz) are quite sensitive to the CCN concentration variations. This is because the higher frequency brightness temperatures are sensitive to large, ice-phase particles. In a clean environment, the deep convections produce larger cloud particles. When these cloud particles are transported above the freezing level by strong updrafts, they form larger precipitable ice particles (snow, graupel and hail) compared with dirty environment simulations. These larger ice particles result in significantly colder brightness temperatures at high frequencies in the clean scenario simulations.
Genetic Evidence for Function of the bHLH-PAS Protein Gce/Met As a Juvenile Hormone Receptor
Jindra, Marek; Uhlirova, Mirka; Charles, Jean-Philippe; Smykal, Vlastimil; Hill, Ronald J.
2015-01-01
Juvenile hormones (JHs) play a major role in controlling development and reproduction in insects and other arthropods. Synthetic JH-mimicking compounds such as methoprene are employed as potent insecticides against significant agricultural, household and disease vector pests. However, a receptor mediating effects of JH and its insecticidal mimics has long been the subject of controversy. The bHLH-PAS protein Methoprene-tolerant (Met), along with its Drosophila melanogaster paralog germ cell-expressed (Gce), has emerged as a prime JH receptor candidate, but critical evidence that this protein must bind JH to fulfill its role in normal insect development has been missing. Here, we show that Gce binds a native D. melanogaster JH, its precursor methyl farnesoate, and some synthetic JH mimics. Conditional on this ligand binding, Gce mediates JH-dependent gene expression and the hormone's vital role during development of the fly. Any one of three different single amino acid mutations in the ligand-binding pocket that prevent binding of JH to the protein block these functions. Only transgenic Gce capable of binding JH can restore sensitivity to JH mimics in D. melanogaster Met-null mutants and rescue viability in flies lacking both Gce and Met that would otherwise die at pupation. Similarly, the absence of Gce and Met can be compensated by expression of wild-type but not mutated transgenic D. melanogaster Met protein. This genetic evidence definitively establishes Gce/Met in a JH receptor role, thus resolving a long-standing question in arthropod biology. PMID:26161662
Parsaee, Zohreh
2018-06-01
In this study NiO nanostructures were synthesized via combinational synthetic method (ultrasound-assisted biosynthesis) and immobilized on the glassy carbon electrode (GCE) as a highly sensitive and selective enzyme-less sensor for urea detection. NiO-NPs were fully characterized using SEM, EDX, XRD, BET, TGA, FT-IR, UV-vis and Raman methods which revealed the formation of NiO nanostructures in the form of cotton like porous material and crystalline in nature with the average size of 3.8 nm. GCE was modified with NiO-NPs in aqueous solution of cetrimonium bromide(CTAB). Highly adhesive NiO/CTAB/GO nanocomposite membrane has been formed on GCE by immersing NiO/CTAB modified GCE in GO suspension. CTAB has a major role in the production and immobilization of the nanocomposites on the GCE surface and the binding NiO nanoparticles on GO plates. In addition, CTAB/GO composition made a highly adhesive surface on the GCE. The resulting NiO/CTAB/GO/GCE contains potently sensitive to urea in aqueous environments. The response of as developed amperometric sensor was linear in the range of 100-1200 µM urea with R 2 value of 0.991 and limit of detection (LOD), 8 µM. The sensor responded negligibly to various interfering species like glucose, uric acid and ascorbic acid. This sensor was applied successfully for determining urea in real water samples such as mineral water, tap water and river water with acceptable recovery. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Effect of green coffee extract on rheological, physico-sensory and antioxidant properties of bread.
Mukkundur Vasudevaiah, A; Chaturvedi, A; Kulathooran, R; Dasappa, I
2017-06-01
Green coffee extract, GCE ( Coffee canephora ) was used at 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0% levels for making bioactive rich bread. The processed GCE from the green coffee beans had 21.42% gallic acid equivalents (GAE) total polyphenols (TPP), 37.28% chlorogenic acid (CGA) and 92.73% radical scavenging activity (RSA), at 100 ppm concentration of GCE and caffeine content (1.75%). Rheological, physico-sensory and antioxidant properties of GCE incorporated breads were analysed and compared with control bread. The results revealed not much significant change in the rheological characteristics of dough up to 1.5% level; an increase in bread volume; greenness of bread crumb and mostly unchanged textural characteristics of the bread with increased addition of GCE from 0 to 2.0%. Sensory evaluation showed that maximum level of incorporation of GCE without adverse effect on the overall quality of bread (especially taste) was at 1.5% level. The contents of TPP, RSA and CGA increased by 12, 6 and 42 times when compared to control bread and had the highest amount of 4-5 caffeoylquinic acid.
Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2004-01-01
Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to imiprove the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. I this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the Goddard research plan of using Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.
Patiño, Yolanda; Díaz, Eva; Lobo-Castañón, María Jesús; Ordóñez, Salvador
2018-06-01
Electrochemical oxidation of an emerging pollutant, 2-(4-methylphenoxy)ethanol (MPET), from water has been studied by cyclic voltammetry (CV). Multiwall carbon nanotubes glassy carbon electrodes (MWCNT-GCE) were used as working electrode due to their extraordinary properties. The oxidation process is irreversible, since no reduction peaks were observed in the reverse scan. The electrocatalytic effect of MWCNT was confirmed as the oxidation peak intensity increases in comparison to bare-GCE. The effect of functional groups on MWCNT was also studied by MWCNT functionalized with NH 2 (MWCNT-NH 2 ) and COOH (MWCNT-COOH) groups. The oxidation peak current decreases in the following order: MWCNT > MWCNT-NH 2 > MWCNT-COOH. Taking into account the normalized peak current, MWCNT-NH 2 exhibits the best results due to its strong interaction with MPET. Under optimal conditions (pH = 5.0 and volume of MWCNT = 10 μL), degradation was studied for MWCNT-GCE and MWCNT-NH 2 -GCE. A complete MPET removal was observed using MWCNT-GCE after four CV cycles, for a volume/area (V/A) ratio equal to 19. In the case of MWCNT-NH 2 -GCE, the maximum MPET removal was close to 90% for V/A = 37, higher than that obtained for MWCNT-GCE at the same conditions (≈80%). In both cases, no organic by-products were detected.
Zhang, Yuehua; Lei, Wu; Xu, Yujuan; Xia, Xifeng; Hao, Qingli
2016-01-01
A novel, simple and selective electrochemical method was investigated for the simultaneous detection of dopamine (DA) and uric acid (UA) on a poly(l-lysine)/graphene oxide (GO) modified glassy carbon electrode (PLL/GO/GCE) by differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). The electrochemically prepared PLL/GO sensory platform toward the oxidation of UA and DA exhibited several advantages, including high effective surface area, more active sites and enhanced electrochemical activity. Compared to the PLL-modified GCE (PLL/GCE), GO-modified GCE and bare GCE, the PLL/GO/GCE exhibited an increase in the anodic potential difference and a remarkable enhancement in the current responses for both UA and DA. For the simultaneous detection of DA and UA, the detection limits of 0.021 and 0.074 μM were obtained, while 0.031 and 0.018 μM were obtained as the detection limits for the selective detection of UA and DA, using DPV in the linear concentration ranges of 0.5 to 20.0 and 0.5 to 35 μM, respectively. In addition, the PLL/GO/GCE demonstrated good reproducibility, long-term stability, excellent selectivity and negligible interference of ascorbic acid (AA). The proposed modified electrode was successfully implemented in the simultaneous detection of DA and UA in human blood serum, urine and dopamine hydrochloride injection with satisfactory results. PMID:28335305
Kwiek, Bartłomiej; Ambroziak, Marcin; Osipowicz, Katarzyna; Kowalewski, Cezary; Rożalski, Michał
2018-06-01
Current treatment of facial capillary malformations (CM) has limited efficacy. To assess the efficacy of large spot 532 nm lasers for the treatment of previously treated facial CM with the use of 3-dimensional (3D) image analysis. Forty-three white patients aged 6 to 59 were included in this study. Patients had 3D photography performed before and after treatment with a 532 nm Nd:YAG laser with large spot and contact cooling. Objective analysis of percentage improvement based on 3D digital assessment of combined color and area improvement (global clearance effect [GCE]) were performed. The median maximal improvement achieved during the treatment (GCE) was 59.1%. The mean number of laser procedures required to achieve this improvement was 6.2 (range 1-16). Improvement of minimum 25% (GCE25) was achieved by 88.4% of patients, a minimum of 50% (GCE50) by 61.1%, a minimum of 75% (GCE75) by 25.6%, and a minimum of 90% (GCE90) by 4.6%. Patients previously treated with pulsed dye lasers had a significantly less response than those treated with other modalities (GCE 37.3% vs 61.8%, respectively). A large spot 532 nm laser is effective in previously treated patients with facial CM.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zare, Hamid R.; Jahangiri-Dehaghani, Fahime; Shekari, Zahra; Benvidi, Ali
2016-07-01
By immobilizing of quercetin at the surface of a glassy carbon electrode modified with silver nanoparticles and graphene nanosheets (Q-AgNPs-GNs-GCE) a new sensor has been fabricated. The cyclic voltammogram of Q-AgNPs-GNs-GCE shows a stable redox couple with surface confined characteristics. Q-AgNPs-GNs-GCE demonstrated a high catalytic activity for L-Cysteine (L-Cys) oxidation. Results indicated that L-Cys peak potential at Q-AgNPs-GNs-GCE shifted to less positive values compared to GNs-GCE or AgNPs-GCE. Also, the kinetic parameters such as the electron transfer coefficient,, and the heterogeneous electron transfer rate constant, k‧, for the oxidation of L-Cys at the Q-AgNPs-GNs-GCE surface were estimated. In differential pulse voltammetric determination, the detection limit of L-Cys was obtained 0.28 μM, and the calibration plots were linear within two ranges of 0.9-12.4 μM and 12.4-538.5 μM of L-Cys. Also, the proposed modified electrode is used for the simultaneous determinations of ascorbic acid (AA), uric acid (UA), and L-Cys. Finally, this study has demonstrated the practical analytical utility of the sensor for determination of AA in vitamin C tablet, L-Cys in a milk sample and UA in a human urine sample.
The impact of mesoscale convective systems on global precipitation: A modeling study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2017-04-01
The importance of precipitating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has been quantified from TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager retrievals. MCSs generate more than 50% of the rainfall in most tropical regions. Typical MCSs have horizontal scales of a few hundred kilometers (km); therefore, a large domain and high resolution are required for realistic simulations of MCSs in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Almost all traditional global and climate models do not have adequate parameterizations to represent MCSs. Typical multi-scale modeling frameworks (MMFs) with 32 CRM grid points and 4 km grid spacing also might not have sufficient resolution and domain size for realistically simulating MCSs. In this study, the impact of MCSs on precipitation processes is examined by conducting numerical model simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) and Goddard MMF (GMMF). The results indicate that both models can realistically simulate MCSs with more grid points (i.e., 128 and 256) and higher resolutions (1 or 2 km) compared to those simulations with less grid points (i.e., 32 and 64) and low resolution (4 km). The modeling results also show that the strengths of the Hadley circulations, mean zonal and regional vertical velocities, surface evaporation, and amount of surface rainfall are either weaker or reduced in the GMMF when using more CRM grid points and higher CRM resolution. In addition, the results indicate that large-scale surface evaporation and wind feed back are key processes for determining the surface rainfall amount in the GMMF. A sensitivity test with reduced sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is conducted and results in both reduced surface rainfall and evaporation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar
2017-01-01
The importance of precipitating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has been quantified from TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager retrievals. MCSs generate more than 50% of the rainfall in most tropical regions. MCSs usually have horizontal scales of a few hundred kilometers (km); therefore, a large domain with several hundred km is required for realistic simulations of MCSs in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Almost all traditional global and climate models do not have adequate parameterizations to represent MCSs. Typical multi-scale modeling frameworks (MMFs) may also lack the resolution (4 km grid spacing) and domain size (128 km) to realistically simulate MCSs. In this study, the impact of MCSs on precipitation is examined by conducting model simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and Goddard MMF (GMMF). The results indicate that both models can realistically simulate MCSs with more grid points (i.e., 128 and 256) and higher resolutions (1 or 2 km) compared to those simulations with fewer grid points (i.e., 32 and 64) and low resolution (4 km). The modeling results also show the strengths of the Hadley circulations, mean zonal and regional vertical velocities, surface evaporation, and amount of surface rainfall are weaker or reduced in the GMMF when using more CRM grid points and higher CRM resolution. In addition, the results indicate that large-scale surface evaporation and wind feed back are key processes for determining the surface rainfall amount in the GMMF. A sensitivity test with reduced sea surface temperatures shows both reduced surface rainfall and evaporation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar
2017-06-01
The importance of precipitating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has been quantified from TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager retrievals. MCSs generate more than 50% of the rainfall in most tropical regions. MCSs usually have horizontal scales of a few hundred kilometers (km); therefore, a large domain with several hundred km is required for realistic simulations of MCSs in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Almost all traditional global and climate models do not have adequate parameterizations to represent MCSs. Typical multiscale modeling frameworks (MMFs) may also lack the resolution (4 km grid spacing) and domain size (128 km) to realistically simulate MCSs. The impact of MCSs on precipitation is examined by conducting model simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE, a CRM) model and Goddard MMF that uses the GCEs as its embedded CRMs. Both models can realistically simulate MCSs with more grid points (i.e., 128 and 256) and higher resolutions (1 or 2 km) compared to those simulations with fewer grid points (i.e., 32 and 64) and low resolution (4 km). The modeling results also show the strengths of the Hadley circulations, mean zonal and regional vertical velocities, surface evaporation, and amount of surface rainfall are weaker or reduced in the Goddard MMF when using more CRM grid points and higher CRM resolution. In addition, the results indicate that large-scale surface evaporation and wind feedback are key processes for determining the surface rainfall amount in the GMMF. A sensitivity test with reduced sea surface temperatures shows both reduced surface rainfall and evaporation.
Microphysics in the Multi-Scale Modeling Systems with Unified Physics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.
2011-01-01
In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the microphysics developments of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the heavy precipitation processes will be presented.
Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System: TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2005-01-01
Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. In this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.
Mphuthi, Ntsoaki G.; Adekunle, Abolanle S.; Ebenso, Eno E.
2016-01-01
Glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was modified with metal oxides (MO = Fe3O4, ZnO) nanoparticles doped phthalocyanine (Pc) and functionalized MWCNTs, and the electrocatalytic properties were studied. Successful synthesis of the metal oxide nanoparticles and the MO/Pc/MWCNT composite were confirmed using FTIR, Raman and SEM techniques. The electrodes were characterized using cyclic voltammetry (CV) technique. The electrocatalytic behaviour of the electrode towards epinephrine (EP) and norepinephrine (NE) oxidation was investigated using CV and DPV. Result showed that GCE-MWCNT/Fe3O4/2,3-Nc, GCE-MWCNT/Fe3O429H,31H-Pc, GCE-MWCNT/ZnO/2,3-Nc and GCE-MWCNT/ZnO/29H,31H-Pc electrodes gave enhanced EP and NE current response. Stability study indicated that the four GCE-MWCNT/MO/Pc modified electrodes were stable against electrode fouling effect with the percentage NE current drop of 5.56–5.88% after 20 scans. GCE-MWCNT/Fe3O4/29H,31H-Pc gave the lowest limit of detection (4.6 μM) towards EP while MWCNT/ZnO/29H,31H-Pc gave the lowest limit of detection (1.7 μM) towards NE. The limit of detection and sensitivity of the electrodes compared well with literature. Electrocatalytic oxidation of EP and NE on GCE-MWCNT/MO/Pc electrodes was diffusion controlled with some adsorption of electro-oxidation reaction intermediates products. The electrodes were found to be electrochemically stable, reusable and can be used for the analysis of EP and NE in real life samples. PMID:27245690
Giribabu, Krishnamoorthy; Suresh, Ranganathan; Manigandan, Ramadoss; Munusamy, Settu; Kumar, Sivakumar Praveen; Muthamizh, Selvamani; Narayanan, Vengidusamy
2013-10-07
A poly(methylene blue)-modified glassy carbon electrode (PMB/GCE) was fabricated by electropolymerisation of methylene blue on a GCE and further utilized to investigate the electrochemical determination of 4-nitrophenol (4-NP) by cyclic voltammetry (CV), differential pulse voltammetry and chronocoulometry. The morphology of the PMB on GCE was examined using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). An oxidation peak of 4-NP at the PMB modified electrode was observed at 0.28 V, and in the case of bare GCE, no oxidation peak was observed, which indicates that PMB/GCE exhibits a remarkable effect on the electrochemical determination of 4-NP. Due to this remarkable effect of PMB/GCE, a sensitive and simple electrochemical method was proposed for the determination of 4-NP. The effect of the scan rate and pH was investigated to determine the optimum conditions at which the PMB/GCE exhibits a higher sensitivity with a lower detection limit. Moreover, kinetic parameters such as the electron transfer number, proton transfer number and standard heterogeneous rate constant were calculated. Under optimum conditions, the oxidation current of 4-NP is proportional to its concentration in the range of 15-250 nM with a correlation coefficient of 0.9963. The detection limit was found to be 90 nM (S/N = 3). The proposed method based on PMB/GCE is simple, easy and cost effective. To further confirm its possible application, the proposed method was successfully used for the determination of 4-NP in real water samples with recoveries ranging from 97% to 101.6%. The interference due to sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, copper, zinc, iron, sulphate, carbonate, chloride, nitrate and phosphate was found to be almost negligible.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhang, Weiying; Du, Dan; Gunaratne, Don
Phosphomolybdate functionalized graphene nanocomposite (PMo 12-GS) has been successfully formed on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) for the detection of ascorbic acid (AA). The obtained PMo 12-GS modified GCE, was characterized by cyclic voltammetry, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy and compared with GCE, GS modified GCE, and PMo 12 modified GCE. It shows an increased current and a decrease in over-potential of ~210 mV. The amperometric signals are linearly proportional to the AA concentration in a wide concentration range from 1×10 -6 M to 8×10 -3 M, with a detection limit ofmore » 0.5×10 -6 M. Finally, the PMo 12-GS modified electrode was employed for the determination of the AA level in vitamin C tablets, with recoveries between 96.3 and 100.8 %.« less
Pyrrolysyl-tRNA Synthetase, an Aminoacyl-tRNA Synthetase for Genetic Code Expansion
Crnkovic, Ana; Suzuki, Tateki; Soll, Dieter; ...
2016-06-14
Genetic code expansion (GCE) has become a central topic of synthetic biology. GCE relies on engineered aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (aaRSs) and a cognate tRNA species to allow codon reassignment by co-translational insertion of non-canonical amino acids (ncAAs) into proteins. Introduction of such amino acids increases the chemical diversity of recombinant proteins endowing them with novel properties. Such proteins serve in sophisticated biochemical and biophysical studies both in vitro and in vivo, they may become unique biomaterials or therapeutic agents, and they afford metabolic dependence of genetically modified organisms for biocontainment purposes. In the Methanosarcinaceae the incorporation of the 22nd genetically encodedmore » amino acid, pyrrolysine (Pyl), is facilitated by pyrrolysyl-tRNA synthetase (PylRS) and the cognate UAG-recognizing tRNAPyl. This unique aaRS•tRNA pair functions as an orthogonal translation system (OTS) in most model organisms. The facile directed evolution of the large PylRS active site to accommodate many ncAAs, and the enzyme’s anticodon-blind specific recognition of the cognate tRNAPyl make this system highly amenable for GCE purposes. The remarkable polyspecificity of PylRS has been exploited to incorporate >100 different ncAAs into proteins. Here we review the Pyl-OT system and selected GCE applications to examine the properties of an effective OTS.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shang, Liangliang; He, Yangle; Lian, Jingwei; Pan, Yusi
2018-05-01
The Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) has been one of the most attractive candidates for Dark Matter (DM), and the lightest neutralino (\\widetilde{χ }^0_1) in the Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (NMSSM) is an interesting realization of the WIMP framework. The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) indicated from the analysis of the photon data of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) in the gamma-ray wavelength ≲ 1 fm, can be explained by WIMP DM annihilations in the sky, as shown in many existing works. In this work we consider an interesting scenario in the Z_3-NMSSM where the singlet S and Singlino \\widetilde{S}^0 components play important roles in the Higgs and DM sector. Guided by our analytical arguments, we perform a sophisticated scan over the NMSSM parameter space by considering various observables such as the Standard Model (SM) Higgs data measured by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the B-physics observables BR(B_s→ X_sγ ) and BR(B_s→ μ ^+μ ^-). We first collect samples which can explain the GCE well while passing all constraints we consider except for the DM direct detection (DD) bounds from XENON1T and PandaX-II experiments. We analyze the features of these samples suitable for the GCE interpretation and find that \\widetilde{χ }^0_1 DM are mostly Singlino-like and annihilation products are mostly the bottom quark pairs \\bar{b}b through a light singlet-like CP-odd Higgs A_1. Moreover, a good fit to the GCE spectrum generically requires sizable DM annihilation rates < σ _{b\\bar{b}} v > 0 in today's Universe. However, the correlation between the coupling C_{A_1 b\\bar{b}} in < σ _{b\\bar{b}} v > 0 and the coupling C_{Z \\widetilde{χ }^0_1 \\widetilde{χ }^0_1} in DM-neutron Spin Dependent (SD) scattering rate σ ^{SD}_{\\widetilde{χ }^0_1-N} makes all samples we obtain for GCE explanation get excluded by the PandaX-II results. Although the DM resonant annihilation scenarios may be beyond the reach of our analytical approximations and scan strategy, the aforementioned correlation can be a reasonable motivation for future experiments such as PandaX-nT to further test the NMSSM interpretation of GCE.
Koskun, Yağmur; Şavk, Aysun; Şen, Betül; Şen, Fatih
2018-06-20
Glucose enzyme biosensors have been used for a variety of applications such as medical diagnosis, bioprocess engineering, beverage industry and environmental scanning etc. and there is still a growing interest in glucose sensors. For this purpose, addressed herein, as a novel glucose sensor, highly sensitive activated carbon (AC) decorated monodisperse nickel and palladium alloy nanocomposites modified glassy carbon electrode (Ni-Pd@AC/GCE NCs) have been synthesized by in-situ reduction technique. Raman Spectroscopy (RS), X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), cyclic voltammetry (CV) and chronoamperometry (CA) were used for the characterization of the prepared non-enzymatic glucose sensor. The characteristic sensor properties of the Ni-Pd@AC/GCE electrode were compared with Ni-Pd NCs/GCE, Ni@AC/GCE and Pd@AC/GCE and the results demonstrate that the AC is very effective in the enhancement of the electrocatalytic properties of sensor. In addition, the Ni-Pd@AC/GCE nanocomposites showed a very low detection limit of 0.014 μM, a wide linear range of 0.01 mM-1 mM and a very high sensitivity of 90 mA mM -1 cm -2 . Furthermore, the recommended sensor offer the various advantageous such as facile preparation, fast response time, high selectivity and sensitivity. Lastly, monodisperse Ni-Pd@AC/GCE was utilized to detect glucose in real sample species. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Liu, Ling; Zhang, Shengsen; Xing, Li; Zhao, Huijun; Dong, Shaojun
2012-05-15
In this paper, we proposed a method by using co-immobilized Escherichia coli (E. coli) as a biocatalyst and neutral red (NR) as an artificial electronic acceptor to modify glassy carbon electrode (GCE) for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) measurement. Two different modification approaches of GCE were utilized and compared. In one approach, NR was electropolymerized on the surface of GCE, and E. coli cells were mixed with grafting copolymer PVA-g-PVP (briefly gPVP) and covered on NR polymer film to obtain a (gPVP/E. coli)/PNR/GCE. In the second approach, both NR and E. coli cells were mixed with the copolymer gPVP and modified GCE, after drying, which was electrochemically treated similar as above for obtaining a (gPVP/E. coli/NR)p/GCE. Based on the electrochemical evaluation, the performance of the latter was better, which may be caused by that the NR deposited on the surface of E. coli resulting in a good electron transport and permeability of cells membrane. To develop the results obtained at (gPVP/E. coli/NR)p/GCE further, the pretreatment by TiO(2) nanotubes arrays (TNTs) was employed, and different effects on samples of GGA, OECD, urea and real wastewater were evaluated. These results suggest that the present method holds a potential application for rapid BOD biosensor. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Kudr, Jiri; Richtera, Lukas; Nejdl, Lukas; Xhaxhiu, Kledi; Vitek, Petr; Rutkay-Nedecky, Branislav; Hynek, David; Kopel, Pavel; Adam, Vojtech; Kizek, Rene
2016-01-01
Increasing urbanization and industrialization lead to the release of metals into the biosphere, which has become a serious issue for public health. In this paper, the direct electrochemical reduction of zinc ions is studied using electrochemically reduced graphene oxide (ERGO) modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE). The graphene oxide (GO) was fabricated using modified Hummers method and was electrochemically reduced on the surface of GCE by performing cyclic voltammograms from 0 to −1.5 V. The modification was optimized and properties of electrodes were determined using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and cyclic voltammetry (CV). The determination of Zn(II) was performed using differential pulse voltammetry technique, platinum wire as a counter electrode, and Ag/AgCl/3 M KCl reference electrode. Compared to the bare GCE the modified GCE/ERGO shows three times better electrocatalytic activity towards zinc ions, with an increase of reduction current along with a negative shift of reduction potential. Using GCE/ERGO detection limit 5 ng·mL−1 was obtained. PMID:28787832
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xiao, Mingshu; Yan, Yuhua; Feng, Kai; Tian, Yanping; Miao, Yuqing
2015-04-01
A new electrochemical technique to detect hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) was developed. The Pt nanoparticles and BiIII were subsequently assembled on agmatine sulfate (AS) modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) and the prepared GCE-AS-Pt-BiIII was characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with result showing that the flower-like nanostructure of Pt-BiIII was yielded. Compared with Pt nanoparticles, the flower-like nanostructure of Pt-BiIII greatly enhanced the electrocatalysis of GCE-AS-Pt-BiIII towards H2O2, which is ascribed to more Pt-OH obtained on GCE-AS-Pt-BiIII surface for the presence of BiIII. Based on its high electrocatalysis, GCE-AS-Pt-BiIII was used to determine the content of H2O2 in the sample of sheet bean curd with standard addition method. Meantime, its electrocatalytic activity also was studied.
Nishida, K; Ohta, Y; Ishiguro, I
1998-02-20
We examined the effect of gamma-glutamylcysteinylethyl ester (gamma-GCE), which is readily transported into hepatocytes and increases hepatocellular reduced glutathione (GSH) levels, on the progression of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)-induced liver injury in mice in comparison with that of GSH. Administration of more than 160 micromol/kg of gamma-GCE, but not GSH, to mice at 3 h after intraperitoneal injection of CCl4 (1 ml/kg) significantly attenuated increases in serum aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase activities at 24 h after the CCl4 injection. Increases in hepatic lipid peroxide (LPO) concentrations and decreases in hepatic GSH concentrations after the CCl4 injection were significantly diminished by the gamma-GCE (160 micromol/kg) administration, but not by the same dose of GSH. Gamma-GCE, gamma-glutamylcysteine, and cysteine acted as substrates for glutathione peroxidases much less efficiently than GSH in the post-mitochondrial fraction of normal mouse liver cells. These results indicate that gamma-GCE attenuates the progression of CCl4-induced acute liver injury in mice through the maintenance of hepatic GSH levels, leading to inhibition of hepatic LPO formation, which could be due to an efficient utilization of GSH converted from gamma-GCE in the liver cells.
Lipase-nanoporous gold biocomposite modified electrode for reliable detection of triglycerides.
Wu, Chao; Liu, Xueying; Li, Yufei; Du, Xiaoyu; Wang, Xia; Xu, Ping
2014-03-15
For triglycerides biosensor design, protein immobilization is necessary to create the interface between the enzyme and the electrode. In this study, a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was modified with lipase-nanoporous gold (NPG) biocomposite (denoted as lipase/NPG/GCE). Due to highly conductive, porous, and biocompatible three-dimensional structure, NPG is suitable for enzyme immobilization. In cyclic voltammetry experiments, the lipase/NPG/GCE bioelectrode displayed surface-confined reaction in a phosphate buffer solution. Linear responses were obtained for tributyrin concentrations ranging from 50 to 250 mg dl(-1) and olive oil concentrations ranging from 10 to 200 mg dl(-1). The value of apparent Michaelis-Menten constant for tributyrin was 10.67 mg dl(-1) and the detection limit was 2.68 mg dl(-1). Further, the lipase/NPG/GCE bioelectrode had strong anti-interference ability against urea, glucose, cholesterol, and uric acid as well as a long shelf-life. For the detection of triglycerides in human serum, the values given by the lipase/NPG/GCE bioelectrode were in good agreement with those of an automatic biochemical analyzer. These properties along with a long self-life make the lipase/NPG/GCE bioelectrode an excellent choice for the construction of triglycerides biosensor. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Horiuchi, Shunsaku; Macias, Oscar; Restrepo, Diego; Rivera, Andrés; Zapata, Oscar; Silverwood, Hamish
2016-03-01
The singlet-doublet fermion dark matter model (SDFDM) provides a good DM candidate as well as the possibility of generating neutrino masses radiatively. The search and identification of DM requires the combined effort of both indirect and direct DM detection experiments in addition to the LHC. Remarkably, an excess of GeV gamma rays from the Galactic Center (GCE) has been measured with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) which appears to be robust with respect to changes in the diffuse galactic background modeling. Although several astrophysical explanations have been proposed, DM remains a simple and well motivated alternative. In this work, we examine the sensitivities of dark matter searches in the SDFDM scenario using Fermi-LAT, CTA, IceCube/DeepCore, LUX, PICO and LHC with an emphasis on exploring the regions of the parameter space that can account for the GCE. We find that DM particles present in this model with masses close to ~ 99 GeV and ~ (173-190) GeV annihilating predominantly into the W+W- channel and tbar t channel respectively, provide an acceptable fit to the GCE while being consistent with different current experimental bounds. We also find that much of the obtained parameter space can be ruled out by future direct search experiments like LZ and XENON-1T, in case of null results by these detectors. Interestingly, we show that the most recent data by LUX is starting to probe the best fit region in the SDFDM model.
Nanoporous gold-based microbial biosensor for direct determination of sulfide.
Liu, Zhuang; Ma, Hanyue; Sun, Huihui; Gao, Rui; Liu, Honglei; Wang, Xia; Xu, Ping; Xun, Luying
2017-12-15
Environmental pollution caused by sulfide compounds has become a major problem for public health. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore a sensitive, selective, and simple sulfide detection method for environmental monitoring and protection. Here, a novel microbial biosensor was developed using recombinant Escherichia coli BL21 (E. coli BL21) expressing sulfide:quinone oxidoreductase (SQR) for sulfide detection. As an important enzyme involved in the initial step of sulfide metabolism, SQR oxidizes sulfides to polysulfides and transfers electrons to the electron transport chain. Nanoporous gold (NPG) with its unique properties was selected for recombinant E. coli BL21 cells immobilization, and then glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was modified by the resulting E. coli/NPG biocomposites to construct an E. coli/NPG/GCE bioelectrode. Due to the catalytic oxidation properties of NPG for sulfide, the electrochemical reaction of the E. coli/NPG/GCE bioelectrode is attributed to the co-catalysis of SQR and NPG. For sulfide detection, the E. coli/NPG/GCE bioelectrode showed a good linear response ranging from 50μM to 5mM, with a high sensitivity of 18.35μAmM -1 cm -2 and a low detection limit of 2.55μM. The anti-interference ability of the E. coli/NPG/GCE bioelectrode is better than that of enzyme-based inhibitive biosensors. Further, the E. coli/NPG/GCE bioelectrode was successfully applied to the detection of sulfide in wastewater. These unique properties potentially make the E. coli/NPG/GCE bioelectrode an excellent choice for reliable sulfide detection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.
2003-01-01
NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America ) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model. Review of other latent heating algorithms will be discussed in the workshop.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.
2002-01-01
NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2001. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DE 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs. west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in strtaiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.
2003-01-01
NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in straitform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMXX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM- LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.
The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne
2008-01-01
Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al ., 2001]." Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 19991. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and Shepherd, 2005]. Please see Tao et al. (2007) for more detailed description on aerosol impact on precipitation. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.
Sex steroid hormone metabolism takes place in human ocular cells.
Coca-Prados, Miguel; Ghosh, Sikha; Wang, Yugang; Escribano, Julio; Herrala, Annakaisa; Vihko, Pirkko
2003-08-01
Steroids are potentially important mediators in the pathophysiology of ocular diseases. In this study, we report on the gene expression in the human eye of a group of enzymes, the 17beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenases (17HSDs), involved in the biosynthesis and inactivation of sex steroid hormones. In the eye, the ciliary epithelium, a neuroendocrine secretory epithelium, co-expresses the highest levels of 17HSD2 and 5 mRNAs, and in lesser level 17HSD7 mRNA. The regulation of gene expression of these enzymes was investigated in vitro in cell lines, ODM-C4 and chronic open glaucoma (GCE), used as cell models of the human ciliary epithelium. The estrogen, 17beta-estradiol (10(-7) M) and androgen agonist, R1881 (10(-8) M) elicited in ODM-C4 and GCE cells over a 24 h time course a robust up-regulation of 17HSD7 mRNA expression. 17HSD2 was up-regulated by estradiol in ODM-C4 cells, but not in GCE cells. Under steady-state conditions, ODM-C4 cells exhibited a predominant 17HSD2 oxidative enzymatic activity. In contrast, 17HSD2 activity was low or absent in GCE cells. Our collective data suggest that cultured human ciliary epithelial cells are able to metabolize estrogen, androgen and progesterone, and that 17HSD2 and 7 in these cells are sex steroid hormone-responsive genes and 17HSD7 is responsible to keep on intra/paracrine estrogenic milieu.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sanders, Lorna
2008-01-01
The General Certificate of Education (GCE) A Level Dance specification, offered by the Assessment and Qualifications Alliance (AQA), is the only GCE course of study in the UK that focuses solely on dance. Acquisition of subject specific knowledge is a feature of its aims, while assessment, as constructed by its objectives, is assumed to be a…
Baytak, Aysegul Kutluay; Teker, Tugce; Duzmen, Sehriban; Aslanoglu, Mehmet
2016-10-01
An accurate and precise determination of terbutaline has been carried out using a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with a composite of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and nanoparticles of zirconium oxide (ZrO2NPs). Energy dispersive X-ray and scanning electron microscopic techniques were utilized for the characterization of the composite layer. Terbutaline exhibited a broad oxidation peak at 770mV on a GCE. However, MWCNTs/GCE presented an electrocatalytic effect toward the oxidation of terbutaline with a better anodic peak at 660mV. Furthermore, the electrochemical behavior of terbutaline has greatly been improved at a GCE modified with a composite of MWCNTs and nanoparticles of ZrO2. The ZrO2NPs/MWCNTs/GCE exhibited a sharp anodic wave at 645mV with a large enhancement of the current response for terbutaline. Square wave voltammetry (SWV) was performed for the determination of terbutaline at ZrO2NPs/MWCNTs/GCE. A linear plot was obtained for the current responses of terbutaline against concentrations in the range of 10-160nM yielding a detection limit of 2.25nM (based on 3Sb/m). Improved voltammetric behavior, long-time stability and good reproducibility were obtained for terbutaline at the proposed electrode. A mean recovery of 101.2% with an RSD% of 1.9 was obtained for the analysis of the drug formulation. The accurate and precise quantification of terbutaline makes the ZrO2NPs/MWCNTs/GCE system of great interest for monitoring its therapeutic use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Expeditionary Force 21. Forward and Ready: Now and in the Future
2014-03-04
single commander. Each MAGTF is composed of a command element (CE), a ground combat element ( GCE ), an aviation combat element (ACE), and logistics...headquarters group, a ground combat element ( GCE ) with one Marine Division, an aviation combat element (ACE) with one Marine Aircraft Wing, and a...remain the Marine Corps’ standard unit of deployment; however, company landing teams may take on a larger role in crisis response and may form the GCE
Oberli, Marion; Douard, Véronique; Beaumont, Martin; Jaoui, Daphné; Devime, Fabienne; Laurent, Sandy; Chaumontet, Catherine; Mat, Damien; Le Feunteun, Steven; Michon, Camille; Davila, Anne-Marie; Fromentin, Gilles; Tomé, Daniel; Souchon, Isabelle; Leclerc, Marion; Gaudichon, Claire; Blachier, François
2018-01-01
Food structure is a key factor controlling digestion and nutrient absorption. We test the hypothesis that protein emulsion structure in the diet may affect digestive and absorptive processes. Rats (n = 40) are fed for 3 weeks with two diets chemically identical but based on lipid-protein liquid-fine (LFE) or gelled-coarse (GCE) emulsions that differ at the macro- and microstructure levels. After an overnight fasting, they ingest a 15 N-labeled LFE or GCE test meal and are euthanized 0, 15 min, 1 h, and 5 h later. 15 N enrichment in intestinal contents and blood are measured. Gastric emptying, protein digestion kinetics, 15 N absorption, and incorporation in blood protein and urea are faster with LFE than GCE. At 15 min time point, LFE group shows higher increase in GIP portal levels than GCE. Three weeks of dietary adaptation leads to higher expression of cationic amino acid transporters in ileum of LFE compared to GCE. LFE diet raises cecal butyrate and isovalerate proportion relative to GCE, suggesting increased protein fermentation. LFE diet increases fecal Parabacteroides relative abundance but decreases Bifidobacterium, Sutterella, Parasutterella genera, and Clostridium cluster XIV abundance. Protein emulsion structure regulates digestion kinetics and gastrointestinal physiology, and could be targeted to improve food health value. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Sun, Huihui; Liu, Zhuang; Wu, Chao; Xu, Ping; Wang, Xia
2016-01-01
As a well-known toxic pollutant, sulfide is harmful to human health. In this study, a simple and sensitive amperometric inhibitive biosensor was developed for the determination of sulfide in the environment. By immobilizing nanoporous gold (NPG) on glassy carbon electrode (GCE), and encapsulating horseradish peroxidase (HRP) onto NPG, a HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode for sulfide detection was successfully constructed based on the inhibition of sulfide on HRP activity with o-Phenylenediamine (OPD) as a substrate. The resulted HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode achieved a wide linear range of 0.1–40 μM in sulfide detection with a high sensitivity of 1720 μA mM−1 cm−2 and a low detection limit of 0.027 μM. Additionally, the inhibition of sulfide on HRP is competitive inhibition with OPD as a substrate by Michaelis-Menten analysis. Notably, the recovery of HRP activity was quickly achieved by washing the HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode using differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) technique in deaerated PBS (50 mM, pH 7.0) for only 60 s. Furthermore, the real sample analysis of sulfide by the HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode was achieved. Based on above results, the HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode could be a better choice for the real determination of sulfide compared to inhibitive biosensors previously reported. PMID:27515253
Selective voltammetric determination of Cd(II) by using N,S-codoped porous carbon nanofibers.
Gao, Sanshuang; Liu, Jing; Luo, Jun; Mamat, Xamxikamar; Sambasivam, Sangaraju; Li, Yongtao; Hu, Xun; Wågberg, Thomas; Hu, Guangzhi
2018-05-05
Porous carbon nanofibers codoped with nitrogen and sulfur (NFs) were prepared by pyrolysis of trithiocyanuric acid, silica nanospheres and polyacrylonitrile (PAN) followed by electrospinning. The NFs were used to modify a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) which then displayed highly sensitive response to traces of Cd(II). Compared to a bare GCE and a Nafion modified GCE, the GCE modified with codoped NFs shows improved sensitivity for Cd(II) in differential pulse anodic sweep voltammetry. The stripping peak current (typically measured at 0.81 V vs. Ag/AgCl) increases linearly in the 2.0-500 μg·L -1 Cd(II) concentration range. This is attributed to the large surface area (109 m 2 ·g -1 ), porous structure, and high fraction of heteroatoms (19 at.% of N and 0.75 at.% of S). The method was applied to the determination of Cd(II) in (spiked) tap water where it gave recoveries that ranged between 96% and 103%. Graphical abstract Schematic of a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with N- and S-codoped porous carbon nanofibers (N,S-PCNFs). This GCE has good selectivity for cadmium ion (Cd 2+ ) which can be determined by differential pulse anodic sweeping voltammetry (DPASV) with a detection limit as low as 0.7 ng·mL -1 .
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Huihui; Liu, Zhuang; Wu, Chao; Xu, Ping; Wang, Xia
2016-08-01
As a well-known toxic pollutant, sulfide is harmful to human health. In this study, a simple and sensitive amperometric inhibitive biosensor was developed for the determination of sulfide in the environment. By immobilizing nanoporous gold (NPG) on glassy carbon electrode (GCE), and encapsulating horseradish peroxidase (HRP) onto NPG, a HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode for sulfide detection was successfully constructed based on the inhibition of sulfide on HRP activity with o-Phenylenediamine (OPD) as a substrate. The resulted HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode achieved a wide linear range of 0.1-40 μM in sulfide detection with a high sensitivity of 1720 μA mM-1 cm-2 and a low detection limit of 0.027 μM. Additionally, the inhibition of sulfide on HRP is competitive inhibition with OPD as a substrate by Michaelis-Menten analysis. Notably, the recovery of HRP activity was quickly achieved by washing the HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode using differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) technique in deaerated PBS (50 mM, pH 7.0) for only 60 s. Furthermore, the real sample analysis of sulfide by the HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode was achieved. Based on above results, the HRP/NPG/GCE bioelectrode could be a better choice for the real determination of sulfide compared to inhibitive biosensors previously reported.
How, Gregory Thien Soon; Pandikumar, Alagarsamy; Ming, Huang Nay; Ngee, Lim Hong
2014-05-23
Titanium dioxide (TiO2) with highly exposed {001} facets was synthesized through a facile solvo-thermal method and its surface was decorated by using reduced graphene oxide (rGO) sheets. The morphology and chemical composition of the prepared rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite were examined by using suitable characterization techniques. The rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite was used to modify glassy carbon electrode (GCE), which showed higher electrocatalytic activity towards the oxidation of dopamine (DA) and ascorbic acid (AA), when compared to unmodified GCE. The differential pulse voltammetric studies revealed good sensitivity and selectivity nature of the rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite modified GCE for the detection of DA in the presence of AA. The modified GCE exhibited a low electrochemical detection limit of 6 μM over the linear range of 2-60 μM. Overall, this work provides a simple platform for the development of GCE modified with rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite with highly exposed {001} facets for potential electrochemical sensing applications.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
How, Gregory Thien Soon; Pandikumar, Alagarsamy; Ming, Huang Nay; Ngee, Lim Hong
2014-05-01
Titanium dioxide (TiO2) with highly exposed {001} facets was synthesized through a facile solvo-thermal method and its surface was decorated by using reduced graphene oxide (rGO) sheets. The morphology and chemical composition of the prepared rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite were examined by using suitable characterization techniques. The rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite was used to modify glassy carbon electrode (GCE), which showed higher electrocatalytic activity towards the oxidation of dopamine (DA) and ascorbic acid (AA), when compared to unmodified GCE. The differential pulse voltammetric studies revealed good sensitivity and selectivity nature of the rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite modified GCE for the detection of DA in the presence of AA. The modified GCE exhibited a low electrochemical detection limit of 6 μM over the linear range of 2-60 μM. Overall, this work provides a simple platform for the development of GCE modified with rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite with highly exposed {001} facets for potential electrochemical sensing applications.
How, Gregory Thien Soon; Pandikumar, Alagarsamy; Ming, Huang Nay; Ngee, Lim Hong
2014-01-01
Titanium dioxide (TiO2) with highly exposed {001} facets was synthesized through a facile solvo-thermal method and its surface was decorated by using reduced graphene oxide (rGO) sheets. The morphology and chemical composition of the prepared rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite were examined by using suitable characterization techniques. The rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite was used to modify glassy carbon electrode (GCE), which showed higher electrocatalytic activity towards the oxidation of dopamine (DA) and ascorbic acid (AA), when compared to unmodified GCE. The differential pulse voltammetric studies revealed good sensitivity and selectivity nature of the rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite modified GCE for the detection of DA in the presence of AA. The modified GCE exhibited a low electrochemical detection limit of 6 μM over the linear range of 2–60 μM. Overall, this work provides a simple platform for the development of GCE modified with rGO/TiO2 {001} nanocomposite with highly exposed {001} facets for potential electrochemical sensing applications. PMID:24853929
Jain, Rajeev; Sinha, Ankita; Khan, Ab Lateef
2016-08-01
A novel polyaniline-graphene oxide nanocomposite (PANI/GO/GCE) sensor has been fabricated for quantification of a calcium channel blocker drug levamlodipine (LAMP). Fabricated sensor has been characterized by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, square wave and cyclic voltammetry, Raman spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The developed PANI/GO/GCE sensor has excellent analytical performance towards electrocatalytic oxidation as compared to PANI/GCE, GO/GCE and bare GCE. Under optimized experimental conditions, the fabricated sensor exhibits a linear response for LAMP for its oxidation over a concentration range from 1.25μgmL(-1) to 13.25μgmL(-1) with correlation coefficient of 0.9950 (r(2)), detection limit of 1.07ngmL(-1) and quantification limit of 3.57ngmL(-1). The sensor shows an excellent performance for detecting LAMP with reproducibility of 2.78% relative standard deviation (RSD). The proposed method has been successfully applied for LAMP determination in pharmaceutical formulation with a recovery from 99.88% to 101.75%. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Baker, David R.; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne
2000-01-01
Idealized numerical simulations are performed with a coupled atmosphere/land-surface model to identify the roles of initial soil moisture, coastline curvature, and land breeze circulations on sea breeze initiated precipitation. Data collected on 27 July 1991 during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CAPE) in central Florida are used. The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model is coupled with the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, thus providing a tool to simulate more realistically land-surface/atmosphere interaction and convective initiation. Eight simulations are conducted with either straight or curved coast-lines, initially homogeneous soil moisture or initially variable soil moisture, and initially homogeneous horizontal winds or initially variable horizontal winds (land breezes). All model simulations capture the diurnal evolution and general distribution of sea-breeze initiated precipitation over central Florida. The distribution of initial soil moisture influences the timing, intensity and location of subsequent precipitation. Soil moisture acts as a moisture source for the atmosphere, increases the connectively available potential energy, and thus preferentially focuses heavy precipitation over existing wet soil. Strong soil moisture-induced mesoscale circulations are not evident in these simulations. Coastline curvature has a major impact on the timing and location of precipitation. Earlier low-level convergence occurs inland of convex coastlines, and subsequent precipitation occurs earlier in simulations with curved coastlines. The presence of initial land breezes alone has little impact on subsequent precipitation. however, simulations with both coastline curvature and initial land breezes produce significantly larger peak rain rates due to nonlinear interactions.
Extended Higgs-portal dark matter and the Fermi-LAT Galactic Center Excess
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Casas, J. A.; Gómez Vargas, G. A.; Moreno, J. M.; Quilis, J.; Ruiz de Austri, R.
2018-06-01
In the present work, we show that the Galactic Center Excess (GCE) emission, as recently updated by the Fermi-LAT Collaboration, could be explained by a mixture of Fermi-bubbles-like emission plus dark matter (DM) annihilation, in the context of a scalar-singlet Higgs portal scenario (SHP). In fact, the standard SHP, where the DM particle, S, only has renormalizable interactions with the Higgs, is non-operational due to strong constraints, especially from DM direct detection limits. Thus we consider the most economical extension, called ESHP (for extended SHP), which consists solely in the addition of a second (more massive) scalar singlet in the dark sector. The second scalar can be integrated-out, leaving a standard SHP plus a dimension-6 operator. Mainly, this model has only two relevant parameters (the DM mass and the coupling of the dim-6 operator). DM annihilation occurs mainly into two Higgs bosons, SS→ hh. We demonstrate that, despite its economy, the ESHP model provides an excellent fit to the GCE (with p-value ~ 0.6‑0.7) for very reasonable values of the parameters, in particular, mS simeq 130 GeV. This agreement of the DM candidate to the GCE properties does not clash with other observables and keep the S‑particle relic density at the accepted value for the DM content in the universe.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zeng, Xi-Ping; Shie, Chung-Lin; Simpson, Joanne; Lang, Steve
2004-01-01
The capability for massively parallel programming (MPP) using a message passing interface (MPI) has been implemented into a three-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The design for the MPP with MPI uses the concept of maintaining similar code structure between the whole domain as well as the portions after decomposition. Hence the model follows the same integration for single and multiple tasks (CPUs). Also, it provides for minimal changes to the original code, so it is easily modified and/or managed by the model developers and users who have little knowledge of MPP. The entire model domain could be sliced into one- or two-dimensional decomposition with a halo regime, which is overlaid on partial domains. The halo regime requires that no data be fetched across tasks during the computational stage, but it must be updated before the next computational stage through data exchange via MPI. For reproducible purposes, transposing data among tasks is required for spectral transform (Fast Fourier Transform, FFT), which is used in the anelastic version of the model for solving the pressure equation. The performance of the MPI-implemented codes (i.e., the compressible and anelastic versions) was tested on three different computing platforms. The major results are: 1) both versions have speedups of about 99% up to 256 tasks but not for 512 tasks; 2) the anelastic version has better speedup and efficiency because it requires more computations than that of the compressible version; 3) equal or approximately-equal numbers of slices between the x- and y- directions provide the fastest integration due to fewer data exchanges; and 4) one-dimensional slices in the x-direction result in the slowest integration due to the need for more memory relocation for computation.
Millisecond Pulsars and the Galactic Center Excess
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gonthier, Peter L.; Koh, Yew-Meng; Kust Harding, Alice; Ferrara, Elizabeth C.
2017-08-01
Various groups including the Fermi team have confirmed the spectrum of the gamma- ray excess in the Galactic Center (GCE). While some authors interpret the GCE as evidence for the annihilation of dark matter (DM), others have pointed out that the GCE spectrum is nearly identical to the average spectrum of Fermi millisecond pul- sars (MSP). Assuming the Galactic Center (GC) is populated by a yet unobserved source of MSPs that has similar properties to that of MSPs in the Galactic Disk (GD), we present results of a population synthesis of MSPs from the GC. We establish parameters of various models implemented in the simulation code by matching characteristics of 54 detected Fermi MSPs in the first point source catalog and 92 detected radio MSPs in a select group of thirteen radio surveys and targeting a birth rate of 45 MSPs per mega-year. As a check of our simulation, we find excellent agreement with the estimated numbers of MSPs in eight globular clusters. In order to reproduce the gamma-ray spectrum of the GCE, we need to populate the GC with 10,000 MSPs having a Navarro-Frenk-White distribution suggested by the halo density of DM. It may be possible for Fermi to detect some of these MSPs in the near future; the simulation also predicts that many GC MSPs have radio fluxes S1400above 10 �μJy observable by future pointed radio observations. We express our gratitude for the generous support of the National Science Foundation (RUI: AST-1009731), Fermi Guest Investigator Program and the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program (NNX09AQ71G).
Li, Jianbo; Sun, Weiyan; Wang, Xiaojiao; Duan, Huimin; Wang, Yanhui; Sun, Yuanling; Ding, Chaofan; Luo, Chuannan
2016-08-01
An electrochemical sensor of acetaminophen based on poly(diallyldimethylammonium chloride) (PDDA)-functionalized reduced graphene-loaded Al2O3-Au nanoparticles coated onto glassy carbon electrode (Al2O3-Au/PDDA/reduced graphene oxide (rGO)/glass carbon electrode (GCE)) were prepared by layer self-assembly technique. The as-prepared electrode-modified materials were characterized by scanning electron microscopy, X-ray powder diffraction, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The electrocatalytic performances of Al2O3-Au/PDDA/rGO-modified glassy carbon electrode toward the acetaminophen were investigated by cyclic voltammetry and differential pulse voltammetry. The modified electrodes of graphene oxide (GO)/GCE, PDDA/rGO/GCE, and Al2O3-Au/PDDA/rGO/GCE were constructed for comparison and learning the catalytic mechanism. The research showed Al2O3-Au/PDDA/rGO/GCE having good electrochemical performance, attributing to the synergetic effect that comes from the special nanocomposite structure and physicochemical properties of Al2O3-Au nanoparticles and graphene. A low detection limit of 6 nM (S/N = 3) and a wide linear detection range from 0.02 to 200 μM (R (2) = 0.9970) was obtained. The preparation of sensor was successfully applied for the detection of acetaminophen in commercial pharmaceutical pills. Graphical abstract Schematic diagram of synthesis of Al2O3-Au/PDDA/rGO/GCE.
Evaluation of the Timing Properties of a High Quantum Efficiency Photomultiplier Tube
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peng, Qiyu; Choong, Woon-Seng; Moses, W. William
2013-10-01
We measured the timing resolution of 189 R9800-100 photomultiplier tubes (PMTs), which are a SBA (Super Bialkali, high quantum efficiency) variant of the R9800 high-performance PMT manufactured by Hamamatsu Photonics, and correlated their timing resolutions with various measures of PMT performance, namely Cathode Luminous Sensitivity (CLS), Anode Luminous Sensitivity (ALS), Gain times Collection Efficiency (GCE), Cathode Blue Sensitivity Index (CBSI), Anode Blue Sensitivity Index (ABSI) and dark current. The correlation results show: (1) strong correlations between timing resolution and ALS, ABSI, and GCE; (2) moderate correlations between timing resolution and CBSI; and (3) weak or no correlations between timing resolution and dark current and CLS. The results disclosed that all three measures that include data collected from the anode (ALS, ABSI, and GCE) affect the timing resolution more than either of the two measures that only include photocathode data (CBSI and CLS). We conclude that: (1) the photocathode Quantum Efficiency (QE) and the product of the Gain and the Collection Efficiency (GCE) are the two dominant factors that affect the timing resolution, (2) the GCE variation affects the timing resolution more than the QE variation in the R9800 PMT, and (3) the performance depends on photocathode position.
Tang, Wenwei; Zhang, Min; Zeng, Xinping
2014-01-01
In this paper, the anti-cancer drug 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) was taken as the detection object. The biosensor of dsDNA/GNs/chit/GCE was established using the grapheme (GNs) and chitosan (chit) as the compound modified material. The electrochemical behavior of 6-MP on the sensor was discussed, and the damage and its mechanism of 6-MP on DNA were studied. The experimental result showed that, after the modification of GNs-chit, the electrode activation area of GNs/chit/GCE increased remarkably, which was improved from 1.76cm2 to 8.64 cm2, and the responsive oxidation peak current of GNs/chit/GCE to K3[Fe(CN)6] also increased remarkably. At the meantime, it was demonstrated that DNA was effectively fixed on the GNs/chit/GCE electrode;6-MP caused obvious damage to dsDNA, and the damage degree on the adenine was bigger than that on the guanine; the interaction between 6-MP and dsDNA was preliminarily deduced as the intercalation, and its electrochemical oxidation process was an irreversible process controlled by the adsorption.
MSSM A-funnel and the galactic center excess: prospects for the LHC and direct detection experiments
Freese, Katherine; López, Alejandro; Shah, Nausheen R.; ...
2016-04-11
The pseudoscalar resonance or “A-funnel” in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) is a widely studied framework for explaining dark matter that can yield interesting indirect detection and collider signals. The well-known Galactic Center excess (GCE) at GeV energies in the gamma ray spectrum, consistent with annihilation of a ≲ 40 GeV dark matter particle, has more recently been shown to be compatible with significantly heavier masses following reanalysis of the background.For this study, we explore the LHC and direct detection implications of interpreting the GCE in this extended mass window within the MSSM A-funnel framework. We find that compatibilitymore » with relic density, signal strength, collider constraints, and Higgs data can be simultaneously achieved with appropriate parameter choices. The compatible regions give very sharp predictions of 200-600 GeV CP-odd/even Higgs bosons at low tan β at the LHC and spin-independent cross sections ≈ 10 -11 pb at direct detection experiments. Finally, regardless of consistency with the GCE, this study serves as a useful template of the strong correlations between indirect, direct, and LHC signatures of the MSSM A-funnel region.« less
HLPI-Ensemble: Prediction of human lncRNA-protein interactions based on ensemble strategy.
Hu, Huan; Zhang, Li; Ai, Haixin; Zhang, Hui; Fan, Yetian; Zhao, Qi; Liu, Hongsheng
2018-03-27
LncRNA plays an important role in many biological and disease progression by binding to related proteins. However, the experimental methods for studying lncRNA-protein interactions are time-consuming and expensive. Although there are a few models designed to predict the interactions of ncRNA-protein, they all have some common drawbacks that limit their predictive performance. In this study, we present a model called HLPI-Ensemble designed specifically for human lncRNA-protein interactions. HLPI-Ensemble adopts the ensemble strategy based on three mainstream machine learning algorithms of Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) to generate HLPI-SVM Ensemble, HLPI-RF Ensemble and HLPI-XGB Ensemble, respectively. The results of 10-fold cross-validation show that HLPI-SVM Ensemble, HLPI-RF Ensemble and HLPI-XGB Ensemble achieved AUCs of 0.95, 0.96 and 0.96, respectively, in the test dataset. Furthermore, we compared the performance of the HLPI-Ensemble models with the previous models through external validation dataset. The results show that the false positives (FPs) of HLPI-Ensemble models are much lower than that of the previous models, and other evaluation indicators of HLPI-Ensemble models are also higher than those of the previous models. It is further showed that HLPI-Ensemble models are superior in predicting human lncRNA-protein interaction compared with previous models. The HLPI-Ensemble is publicly available at: http://ccsipb.lnu.edu.cn/hlpiensemble/ .
Enhanced glucose sensing based on a novel composite CoII-MOF/Acb modified electrode.
Wen, Yuanyuan; Meng, Wei; Li, Chen; Dai, Lei; He, Zhangxing; Wang, Ling; Li, Ming; Zhu, Jing
2018-03-12
In this work, we demonstrate the synthesis and application of a novel Co II -based metal-organic framework {[Co 2 (Dcpp)(Bpe) 0.5 (H 2 O)(μ 2 -H 2 O)]·(Bpe) 0.5 } n (Co II -MOF, H 4 Dcpp = 4,5-bis(4'-carboxylphenyl)-phthalic acid, Bpe = 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane) as an electrochemical sensor for glucose detection. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction analysis shows that the Co II -MOF has a two-dimensional (2D) bilayer structure composed of Co 2 units and Dcpp 4- ligands. There are two kinds of Bpe in the structure: one serves as a bidentate ligand linking two Co1 atoms in each 2D layer; the other is just free in the lattice. The Co II -MOF modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) shows good electrocatalytic activity towards glucose oxidation. To further improve the catalytic activity of the electrode, a new composite of Co II -MOF/acetylene black (Co II -MOF/Acb) was constructed. The Co II -MOF/Acb modified electrode exhibits enhanced sensing behavior for glucose detection. The sensing performance of Co II -MOF/Acb/GCE with different Acb loadings was investigated in detail. The results demonstrate that Co II -MOF/GCE with 2% Acb (Co II -MOF/Acb-2%/GCE) exhibits the best sensing behavior, including a high sensitivity of 0.255 μA μM -1 cm -2 and a wide linear range of 5-1000 μM, as well as a low detection limit of 1.7 μM (S/N = 3). It's worth noting that the linear range of Co II -MOF/Acb-2%/GCE was extended by more than ten times when compared to that of Co II -MOF/GCE without Acb addition. In addition, Co II -MOF/Acb-2%/GCE shows good selectivity and stability in the sensing process.
A Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics to Study Precipitation Processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, W. K.
2017-12-01
In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), and (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF). The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitation, processes and their sensitivity on model resolution and microphysics schemes will be presented. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.
Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.
2011-01-01
In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the recent developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitating systems and hurricanes/typhoons will be presented. The high-resolution spatial and temporal visualization will be utilized to show the evolution of precipitation processes. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator tqimproy precipitation processes will be discussed.
Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei--Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.
2010-01-01
In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 sq km in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale models can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving models through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model). (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, W8F). (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling systems to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.
Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems to Study the Precipitation Processes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo
2010-01-01
In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.
Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.
2009-01-01
This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models. Crown Copyright ?? 2008.
Pérez-Ràfols, Clara; Serrano, Núria; Díaz-Cruz, José Manuel; Ariño, Cristina; Esteban, Miquel
2015-11-01
A new penicillamine-GCE was developed based on the immobilization of d-penicillamine on aryl diazonium salt monolayers anchored to the glassy carbon electrode (GCE) surface and it was applied for the first time to the simultaneous determination of Cd(II) and Pb(II) ions by stripping voltammetric techniques. The detection and quantification limits at levels of µg L(-1) suggest that the penicillamine-GCE could be fully suitable for the determination of the considered ions in natural samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wallach, Daniel; Mearns, Linda O.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold
2016-01-01
Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.
[Effects of traditional Chinese medicine on oral bacteria biofilm].
Zhao, Jin; Li, Ji-yao; Zhu, Bing; Zhou, Xue-dong
2007-10-01
To investigate the effects of compounds of Galla chinensis extract (GCE) and Nidus vespae extract-1 (WVE1) on oral bacteria biofilm structure and activity and to determine the possibility of caries prevention by the compounds. The morphology and activity of treated-oral bacterial biofilm and untreated-oral bacterial biofilm were observed by using fluorescence microscope in combination of idio-fluorochrome to label the died and living bacteria. The visible light semiquantitative method was used to measure biomass glucosyltransferase (GTF, A620) values and to determine the effects of active compounds of GCE and NVE1 on GTF of oral bacteria biofilm. The living bacteria in the untreated 24 h bacterial biofilm was dominant, and only a small number of died bacteria were found, the biofilm structure was regular and clear. GCE, GCE-B and NVE1 could inhibit the bacteria in the dental biofilm, which showed significant difference with the negative control. GCE and NVE1 could also inhibit GTF activity of 24 h bacterial biofilm in comparison with the negative control. The traditional Chinese medicine Galla chinensis and Nidus vespae could not only inhibit bacteria growth on oral bacterial biofilm, but also function by adjusting biofilm structure, composition and GTF activity of 24 h bacterial biofilm.
Xu, Qingjun; Wang, Guixiang; Zhang, Mingming; Xu, Guiyun; Lin, Jiehua; Luo, Xiliang
2018-04-13
The authors describe an electrochemical aptasensor for thrombin that is based on the use of a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with polydopamine that is loaded with silver nanoparticles (PDA/AgNPs). The use of AgNPs improves the conductivity of the film and increases the surface area of the GCE. PDA was deposited on the GCE via self-polymerization, and the thrombin binding aptamer was grafted onto the PDA-modified GCE by a single step reaction. Residual electrode surface was blocked with 6-mercapto-1-hexanol. On exposure to thrombin, the electrochemical impedance of the modified electrode increases gradually. Response is linear in the 0.1 pM to 5.0 nM thrombin concentration range, and the limit of detection is as low as 36 fM. The method is selective and capable of detecting thrombin in diluted human serum. In our perception, such a GCE modified with AgNP in a PDA matrix may be applied to many other analytes for which appropriate aptamers are available. Graphical abstract Schematic of an electrochemical aptasensor for sensitive and selective thrombin detection based on the use of a self-polymerized polydopamine film loaded with silver nanoparticles.
Chairam, Sanoe; Sriraksa, Worawit; Amatatongchai, Maliwan; Somsook, Ekasith
2011-01-01
A poly(aniline-co-m-ferrocenylaniline) was successfully synthesized on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) by electrochemical copolymerization using a scan potential range from −0.3 to +0.9 V (vs. Ag/AgCl) in 0.5 M H2SO4 containing 30% acetonitrile (ACN), 0.1 M aniline (Ani) and 0.005 M m-ferrocenyaniline (m-FcAni). The field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) and electrochemical methods were used to characterize the poly(Ani-co-m-FcAni) modified electrode. The poly(Ani-co-m-FcAni)/GCE exhibited excellent electrocatalytic oxidation of ascorbic acid (AA) in citrate buffer solution (CBS, pH 5.0). The anodic peak potential of AA was shifted from +0.55 V at the bare GCE to +0.25 V at the poly(Ani-co-m-FcAni)/GCE with higher current responses than those seen on the bare GCE. The scan number at the 10th cycle was selected as the maximum scan cycle in electrochemical polymerization. The limit of detection (LOD) was estimated to be 2.0 μM based on the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N = 3). The amperometric responses demonstrated an excellent selectivity for AA determination over glucose (Glu) and dopamine (DA). PMID:22346636
An electrochemical sensor based on polyaniline for monitoring hydroquinone and its damage on DNA.
Tang, Wenwei; Zhang, Min; Li, Weihao; Zeng, Xinping
2014-09-01
A dsDNA/PANI/CTS/GCE biosensor was constructed by using the biocompatible chitosan (CTS) and the polyaniline (PANI) with excellent electric catalytic properties and large specific surface areas. The electrochemical behavior of hydroquinone on biosensor and its DNA-damaging mechanisms were investigated. Results showed that the redox peak current was remarkably increased after glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was modified by PANI/CTS. The dsDNA damage by hydroquinone was concentration dependent, and increased along with the increase of hydroquinone oxidation peak current and the reduction of dsDNA guanine oxidation peak current. The linear detection range of hydroquinone with dsDNA/PANI/CTS/GCE was 1.25×10(-6)-3.2×10(-4) M, and the detection limit was 9.65×10(-7) M. It was confirmed by the UV method that applying dsDNA/PANI/CTS/GCE to monitor hydroquinone was accurate and reliable. In addition, it could be deduced that the mode of interaction between the hydroquinone and dsDNA was intercalation. The electrochemical oxidation of hydroquinone on the dsDNA/PANI/CTS/GCE electrode was an adsorption-controlled irreversible and a two-electron two-proton transfer process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Yuan, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Yijia; Yang, Lu; Deng, Wenfang; Tan, Yueming; Ma, Ming; Xie, Qingji
2015-03-07
We report here that three-dimensional activated graphene networks (3DAGNs) are a better matrix to prepare graphene-polymer nanocomposites for sensitive electroanalysis than two-dimensional graphene nanosheets (2DGNs). 3DAGNs were synthesized in advance by the direct carbonization and simultaneous chemical activation of a cobalt ion-impregnated D113-type ion exchange resin, which showed an interconnected network structure and a large specific surface area. Then, the 3DAGN-sulfonate-terminated polymer (STP) nanocomposite was prepared via the in situ chemical co-polymerization of m-aminobenzene sulfonic acid and aniline in the presence of 3DAGNs. The 3DAGN-STP nanocomposite can adsorb dopamine (DA) and heavy metal ions, which was confirmed by quartz crystal microbalance studies. The 3DAGN-STP modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was used for the electrochemical detection of DA in the presence of ascorbic acid and uric acid, with a linear response range of 0.1-32 μM and a limit of detection of 10 nM. In addition, differential pulse voltammetry was used for the simultaneous determination of Cd(2+) and Pb(2+) at the 3DAGN-STP/GCE further modified with a bismuth film, exhibiting linear response ranges of 1-70 μg L(-1) for Cd(2+) and 1-80 μg L(-1) for Pb(2+) with limits of detection of 0.1 μg L(-1) for Cd(2+) and 0.2 μg L(-1) for Pb(2+). Because the 3DAGN-STP can integrate the advantages of 3DAGNs with STPs, the 3DAGN-STP/GCE was more sensitive than the bare GCE, 3DAGN/GCE, and 2DGN-STP/GCE for the determination of DA and heavy metal ions.
Lu, Baoping; Yuan, Xuna; Ren, Yuehong; Shi, Qinghua; Wang, Song; Dong, Jinlong; Nan, Ze-Dong
2018-05-03
We describe a facile method to synthesize a new type of catalyst by electrodepositing Ag nanocrystals (AgNCs) on the different polymer dyes, Poly (methylene blue) (PMB) or Poly (4-(2-Pyridylazo)-Resorcinol) (PAR) modified graphene‑carbon spheres (GS) hybrids. The self-assembled GS take dual advantages of carbon spheres and graphene. Carbon spheres acts as nano-spacers prevent the aggregation of graphene and guarantee the fast electron transfer of GS. Secondly, polymerized dyes used here are beneficial for AgNCs growing as a linker. The effects of dyes on the growth habits, morphologies and catalytic properties for AgNCs were investigated. A novel electrochemical nonenzymatic sensor for hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) detection is fabricated based on the Ag/Polymer dyes/GS ternary composites modified glass carbon electrode (GCE) for the first time. It was found that the proposed electrodes, especially for Ag/PMB/GS/GCE, displayed a peculiar electrocatalytic activity towards H 2 O 2 reduction synergistically as compared to Ag/PAR/GS/GCE or Ag/GS/GCE alone. Ag/PMB/GS/GCE showed a linear response over the H 2 O 2 concentration range of 0.5 to 1112 μM. The detection limit and sensitivity is 0.15 μM and 400 μA mM -1 cm -2 , respectively. These outstanding results enable the practical application of Ag/PMB/GS/GCE for the H 2 O 2 tracking released from MCF-7 (human breast cancer cells) with satisfactory results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Wang, Yong; Cao, Wei; Wang, Luyao; Zhuang, Qianfen; Ni, Yongnian
2018-06-04
A metal organic framework (MOF) of the type copper(II)-1,3,5-benzenetricarboxylic acid (Cu-BTC) was electrodeposited on electroreduced graphene oxide (ERGO) placed on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE). The modified GCE was used for highly sensitive electrochemical determination of 2,4,6-trinitrophenol (TNP). The fabrication process of the modified electrode was characterized by scanning electron microscopy and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) demonstrates that the Cu-BTC/ERGO/GCE gives stronger signals for TNP reduction than Cu-BTC/GCE or ERGO/GCE alone. DPV also shows TNP to exhibit three reduction peaks, the first at a potential of -0.42 V (vs. SCE). This potential was selected because the other three similarly-structured compounds (2-nitrophenol, 4-nitrophenol, 2,4-dinitrophenol) do not give a signal at this potential. Response is linear in the 0.2 to 10 μM TNP concentration range, with a 0.1 μM detection limit (at S/N = 3) and a 15.98 μA∙μM -1 ∙cm -2 sensitivity under optimal conditions. The applicability of the sensor was evaluated by detecting TNP in spiked tap water and lake water samples. Recoveries ranged between 95 and 101%. Graphical abstract Schematic presentation of an electrochemical sensor that was fabricated by electrodeposition of the metal-organic framework (MOF) of copper(II)-1,3,5-benzenetricarboxylic acid (Cu-BTC) onto the surface of electroreduced graphene oxide (ERGO) modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE). It was applied to sensitive and selective detection of 2,4,6-trinitrophenol (TNP).
Kwiek, Bartłomiej; Rożalski, Michał; Kowalewski, Cezary; Ambroziak, Marcin
2017-10-01
We wanted to asses the efficacy of large spot 532 nm laser for the treatment of facial capillary malformations with the use of three-dimensional (3D) image analysis. Retrospective single center study on previously non-treated patients with facial capillary malformations (CM) was performed. A total of 44 consecutive Caucasian patients aged 5-66 were included. Patients had 3D photography performed before and after and had at least one single session of treatment with 532 nm neodymium-doped yttrium aluminum garnet (Nd:YAG) laser with contact cooling, fluencies ranging from 8 to 11.5 J/cm 2 , pulse duration ranging from 5 to 9 milliseconds and spot size ranging from 5 to 10 mm. Objective analysis of percentage improvement based on 3D digital assessment of combined color and area improvement (global clearance effect [GCE]) were performed. Median maximal improvement achieved during the treatment (GCE max ) was 70.4%. Mean number of laser procedures required to achieve this improvement was 7.1 (ranging from 2 to 14)). Improvement of minimum 25% (GCE 25) was achieved by all patients, of minimum 50% (GCE 50) by 77.3%, of minimum 75% (GCE 75) by 38.6%, and of minimum 90% (GCE 90) by 13.64. Large spot 532 nm laser is highly effective in the treatment of facial CM. 3D color and area image analysis provides an objective method to compare different methods of facial CM treatment in future studies. Lasers Surg. Med. 49:743-749, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Rethinking the Default Construction of Multimodel Climate Ensembles
Rauser, Florian; Gleckler, Peter; Marotzke, Jochem
2015-07-21
Here, we discuss the current code of practice in the climate sciences to routinely create climate model ensembles as ensembles of opportunity from the newest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). We give a two-step argument to rethink this process. First, the differences between generations of ensembles corresponding to different CMIP phases in key climate quantities are not large enough to warrant an automatic separation into generational ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5. Second, we suggest that climate model ensembles cannot continue to be mere ensembles of opportunity but should always be based on a transparent scientific decision process.more » If ensembles can be constrained by observation, then they should be constructed as target ensembles that are specifically tailored to a physical question. If model ensembles cannot be constrained by observation, then they should be constructed as cross-generational ensembles, including all available model data to enhance structural model diversity and to better sample the underlying uncertainties. To facilitate this, CMIP should guide the necessarily ongoing process of updating experimental protocols for the evaluation and documentation of coupled models. Finally, with an emphasis on easy access to model data and facilitating the filtering of climate model data across all CMIP generations and experiments, our community could return to the underlying idea of using model data ensembles to improve uncertainty quantification, evaluation, and cross-institutional exchange.« less
Test Writing and Speaking at GCE Ordinary Level
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Harding, Ann
1974-01-01
Discusses diversity which has arisen in testing of productive skills at GCE O level. Criteria to apply in assessment of foreign language acquisition, and writing and speaking tests in particular, are discussed, as well as the weighting of writing and speaking at O level. (RM)
Wang, Donglei; Xu, Fei; Hu, Jiajie; Lin, Meng
2017-02-01
An electrochemical sensor for determining dopamine was developed by modifying phytic acid/graphene oxide (PA/GO) nanocomposites onto a glassy carbon electrode (GCE). PA functionalized GO was prepared by an ultra-sonication method. Subsequently, the PA/GO nanocomposites were drop-casted on a glassy carbon substrate. The structural feature of the PA/GO modified GCE was confirmed by attenuated total reflection infrared (ATR-IR) spectroscopy. The proposed electrochemical sensor was applied to detect various concentrations of DA by differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). The PA/GO/GCE was considered to be highly sensitive to DA in the range of 0.05-10μM. In addition, the PA/GO/GCE demonstrated high electrochemical selectivity toward DA in the presence of ascorbic acid (AA) and uric acid (UA). The prepared electrochemical DA sensor was applied for detection of DA in dopamine hydrochloride injection and spiked samples of human urine with satisfactory results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Liu, Qin; Zhu, Xu; Huo, Zhaohui; He, Xulun; Liang, Yong; Xu, Maotian
2012-08-15
Graphene (GR) was synthesized through electrochemical reduction of graphene oxide and characterized by spectroscopic and electrochemical techniques. Polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP)/graphene modified glassy carbon electrode (PVP/GR/GCE) was prepared and applied for the fabrication of dopamine (DA) sensors without the interference of ascorbic acid (AA). Compared to bare GCE, an increase of current signal was observed, demonstrating that PVP/GR/GCE exhibited favorable electron transfer kinetics and electrocatalytic activity towards the oxidation of dopamine. Furthermore, PVP/GR/GCE exhibited good ability to suppress the background current from large excess ascorbic acid. Amperometric response results show that the PVP based sensor displayed a wide linear range of 5×10(-10) to 1.13×10(-3) mol/L DA with a correlation coefficient of 0.9990 and a detection limit of 0.2 nM (S/N=3). The determination of dopamine in urine and human serum samples were studied. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ramírez-Segovia, A S; Banda-Alemán, J A; Gutiérrez-Granados, S; Rodríguez, A; Rodríguez, F J; Godínez, Luis A; Bustos, E; Manríquez, J
2014-02-17
Glassy carbon electrodes (GCE) were sequentially modified by cysteamine-capped gold nanoparticles (AuNp@cysteamine) and PAMAM dendrimers generation 4.5 bearing 128-COOH peripheral groups (GCE/AuNp@cysteamine/PAMAM), in order to explore their capabilities as electrochemical detectors of uric acid (UA) in human serum samples at pH 2. The results showed that concentrations of UA detected by cyclic voltammetry with GCE/AuNp@cysteamine/PAMAM were comparable (deviation <±10%; limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were 1.7×10(-4) and 5.8×10(-4) mg dL(-1), respectively) to those concentrations obtained using the uricase-based enzymatic-colorimetric method. It was also observed that the presence of dendrimers in the GCE/AuNp@cysteamine/PAMAM system minimizes ascorbic acid (AA) interference during UA oxidation, thus improving the electrocatalytic activity of the gold nanoparticles. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Dongdong; Li, Lingzhi; Ma, Weina; Chen, Xia; Zhang, Yanmin
2017-01-01
This paper demonstrates a novel strategy for the construction of a graphene hybrid composites film, which was fabricated by electrodeposited reduced graphene oxide (ERGO) incorporating polymerization of l-lysine (PLL) onto glassy carbon electrode (GCE). Here we show that graphene films can be prepared on electrodes directly from GO dispersions by one-step electrodeposition technique based on electropolymerized PLL as a positively charged polymer interface to adsorb negatively charged GO nanosheets through electrostatic attraction. The thickness of graphene film can be easily controlled by using the electrodeposition technique, a distinct advantage over previously developed methods. The electrochemically reduced process of GO and electropolymerization of l-lysine were investigated by cyclic voltammetry with a wide potential range. The surface morphology of the modified electrode was characterized by scanning electron microscopy. The ERGO/PLL/GCE shows conducive to electron transfer kinetics for Fe(CN) 6 3- /Fe(CN) 6 4- redox probes, compared with bare GCE, PLL/GCE and ERGO/GCE. The electrochemical behaviors of ascorbic acid (AA), dopamine (DA) and uric acid (UA) at ERGO/PLL/GCE were investigated by cyclic voltammetry, and the results suggest that the modified electrode exhibits enhanced electrocatalytic activity toward these important molecules. Under physiological condition and in the co-existence system of AA, DA and UA, the ERGO/PLL/GCE showed linear voltammetric responses in the concentration of 100μM-1200μM for AA, 2.0μM-60μM for DA and 20μM-200μM for UA, and with the detection limits (S/N=3) of 2.0μM, 0.10μM and 0.15μM for AA, DA and UA, respectively. The developed method has been applied to simultaneous determination of AA, DA and UA in human urine with satisfactory recoveries of 104.2%, 95.4% and 99.9%, respectively. This work demonstrates that the attractive features of ERGO/PLL provide promising applications in simultaneous determination of AA, DA and UA in physiological and pathological studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Yang, Tian; Yang, Xiao-Lu; Zhang, Yu-Shuai; Xiao, BaoLin; Hong, Jun
2014-01-01
Direct electrochemistry of glucose oxidase (GOD) was achieved when an ionic liquid/GOD-Polyhydroxy-C60 functional membrane was confined on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE). The cyclic voltammograms (CVs) of the modified GCE showed a pair of redox peaks with a formal potential (E°') of - 329 ± 2 mV. The heterogeneous electron transfer constant (k(s)) was 1.43 s-1. The modified GCE response to glucose was linear in the range from 0.02 to 2.0 mM. The detection limit was 1 μM. The apparent Michaelis-Menten constant (K(m)(app)) was 1.45 mM.
Comparability of [0-Level] GCE Grades in 1968 and 1973.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Backhouse, John K.
1978-01-01
Willmott's comparison of General Certificate of Education (GCE) scores in 1968 and 1973 is reexamined. The trend toward an increasing percentage of students who pass is confirmed, but estimates of standard errors indicate that subtest differences may be attributed to the sampling plan. (CP)
Environmental Studies and Environmental Science at GCE '0' and 'A' Level.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gayford, Christopher G.
1983-01-01
Reports on environmental studies/science at General Certificate of Examination (GCE) ordinary ("0") and advanced ("A") levels. Questionnaires were used to survey teachers (focusing on their professional training and why they teach environmental studies/science courses) and to determine the relationship between environmental…
Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Valavi, Roozbeh; Shahabi, Himan; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah
2018-07-01
In this research, eight individual machine learning and statistical models are implemented and compared, and based on their results, seven ensemble models for flood susceptibility assessment are introduced. The individual models included artificial neural networks, classification and regression trees, flexible discriminant analysis, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, boosted regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and maximum entropy, and the ensemble models were Ensemble Model committee averaging (EMca), Ensemble Model confidence interval Inferior (EMciInf), Ensemble Model confidence interval Superior (EMciSup), Ensemble Model to estimate the coefficient of variation (EMcv), Ensemble Model to estimate the mean (EMmean), Ensemble Model to estimate the median (EMmedian), and Ensemble Model based on weighted mean (EMwmean). The data set covered 201 flood events in the Haraz watershed (Mazandaran province in Iran) and 10,000 randomly selected non-occurrence points. Among the individual models, the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC), which showed the highest value, belonged to boosted regression trees (0.975) and the lowest value was recorded for generalized linear model (0.642). On the other hand, the proposed EMmedian resulted in the highest accuracy (0.976) among all models. In spite of the outstanding performance of some models, nevertheless, variability among the prediction of individual models was considerable. Therefore, to reduce uncertainty, creating more generalizable, more stable, and less sensitive models, ensemble forecasting approaches and in particular the EMmedian is recommended for flood susceptibility assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Liu, Gui-Ting; Chen, Hui-Fen; Lin, Guo-Ming; Ye, Ping-ping; Wang, Xiao-Ping; Jiao, Ying-Zhi; Guo, Xiao-Yu; Wen, Ying; Yang, Hai-Feng
2014-06-15
An electrochemical sensor of acetaminophen (AP) based on electrochemically reduced graphene (ERG) loaded nickel oxides (Ni2O3-NiO) nanoparticles coated onto glassy carbon electrode (ERG/Ni2O3-NiO/GCE) was prepared by a one-step electrodeposition process. The as-prepared electrode was characterized by scanning electron microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The electrocatalytic properties of ERG/Ni2O3-NiO modified glassy carbon electrode toward the oxidation of acetaminophen were analyzed via cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). The electrodes of Ni2O3-NiO/GCE, ERG/GCE, and Ni2O3-NiO deposited ERG/GCE were fabricated for the comparison and the catalytic mechanism understanding. The studies showed that the one-step prepared ERG/Ni2O3-NiO/GCE displayed the highest electro-catalytic activity, attributing to the synergetic effect derived from the unique composite structure and physical properties of nickel oxides nanoparticles and graphene. The low detection limit of 0.02 μM (S/N=3) with the wide linear detection range from 0.04 μM to 100 μM (R=0.998) was obtained. The resulting sensor was successfully used to detect acetaminophen in commercial pharmaceutical tablets and urine samples. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Benchmarking undedicated cloud computing providers for analysis of genomic datasets.
Yazar, Seyhan; Gooden, George E C; Mackey, David A; Hewitt, Alex W
2014-01-01
A major bottleneck in biological discovery is now emerging at the computational level. Cloud computing offers a dynamic means whereby small and medium-sized laboratories can rapidly adjust their computational capacity. We benchmarked two established cloud computing services, Amazon Web Services Elastic MapReduce (EMR) on Amazon EC2 instances and Google Compute Engine (GCE), using publicly available genomic datasets (E.coli CC102 strain and a Han Chinese male genome) and a standard bioinformatic pipeline on a Hadoop-based platform. Wall-clock time for complete assembly differed by 52.9% (95% CI: 27.5-78.2) for E.coli and 53.5% (95% CI: 34.4-72.6) for human genome, with GCE being more efficient than EMR. The cost of running this experiment on EMR and GCE differed significantly, with the costs on EMR being 257.3% (95% CI: 211.5-303.1) and 173.9% (95% CI: 134.6-213.1) more expensive for E.coli and human assemblies respectively. Thus, GCE was found to outperform EMR both in terms of cost and wall-clock time. Our findings confirm that cloud computing is an efficient and potentially cost-effective alternative for analysis of large genomic datasets. In addition to releasing our cost-effectiveness comparison, we present available ready-to-use scripts for establishing Hadoop instances with Ganglia monitoring on EC2 or GCE.
Mohibbullah, Md.; Hannan, Md. Abdul; Choi, Ji-Young; Bhuiyan, Mohammad Maqueshudul Haque; Hong, Yong-Ki; Choi, Jae-Suk; Choi, In Soon; Moon, Il Soo
2015-01-01
Abstract Age-related neurological disorders are of growing concern among the elderly, and natural products with neuroprotective properties have been attracting increasing attention as candidates for the prevention or treatment of neurological disorders induced by oxidative stress. In an effort to explore natural resources, we collected some common marine seaweed from the Korean peninsula and Indonesia and screened them for neuroprotective activity against hypoxia/reoxygenation (H/R)-induced oxidative stress. Of the 23 seaweeds examined, the ethanol extract of Gracilariopsis chorda (GCE) provided maximum neuroprotection at an optimum concentration of 15 μg/mL, followed by Undaria pinnatifida. GCE increased cell viability after H/R, decreased the formation of reactive oxygen species (measured by 2′,7′-dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate [DCF-DA] staining), and inhibited the double-stranded DNA breaks (measured by H2AX immunocytochemistry), apoptosis (measured by Annexin V/propidium iodide staining), internucleosomal DNA fragmentation (measured by DNA laddering), and dissipation of mitochondrial membrane potential (measured by JC-1 staining). Using reverse-phase high-pressure liquid chromatography, we quantitated the arachidonic acid (AA) in GCE, which provides neuroprotection against H/R-induced oxidative stress. This neuroprotective effect of AA was comparable to that of GCE. These findings suggest that the neuroprotective effect of GCE against H/R-induced neuronal death is due, at least in part, to the AA content that suppresses neuronal apoptosis. PMID:26106876
Chen, Li-Xian; Zheng, Jie-Ning; Wang, Ai-Jun; Wu, Lan-Ju; Chen, Jian-Rong; Feng, Jiu-Ju
2015-05-07
Porous bimetallic alloyed palladium silver (PdAg) nanoflowers supported on reduced graphene oxide (PdAg NFs/rGO) were prepared via a facile and simple in situ reduction process, with the assistance of cetyltrimethylammonium bromide as a structure directing agent. The as-prepared nanocomposite modified glassy carbon electrode (PdAg NFs/rGO/GCE) showed enhanced catalytic currents and enlarged peak potential separations for the oxidation of ascorbic acid (AA), dopamine (DA), and uric acid (UA) as compared to those of PdAg/GCE, rGO/GCE, commercial Pd/C/GCE, and bare GCE. The as-developed sensor can selectively detect AA, DA, and UA with a good anti-interference ability, wide concentration ranges of 1.0 μM-2.1 mM, 0.4-96.0 μM, and 1.0-150.0 μM, respectively, together with low detection limits of 0.057, 0.048, and 0.081 μM (S/N = 3), respectively. For simultaneous detection of AA, DA, and UA, the linear current-concentration responses were observed from 1.0 μM-4.1 mM, 0.05-112.0 μM, and 3.0-186.0 μM, with the detection limits of 0.185, 0.017, and 0.654 μM (S/N = 3), respectively.
Benchmarking Undedicated Cloud Computing Providers for Analysis of Genomic Datasets
Yazar, Seyhan; Gooden, George E. C.; Mackey, David A.; Hewitt, Alex W.
2014-01-01
A major bottleneck in biological discovery is now emerging at the computational level. Cloud computing offers a dynamic means whereby small and medium-sized laboratories can rapidly adjust their computational capacity. We benchmarked two established cloud computing services, Amazon Web Services Elastic MapReduce (EMR) on Amazon EC2 instances and Google Compute Engine (GCE), using publicly available genomic datasets (E.coli CC102 strain and a Han Chinese male genome) and a standard bioinformatic pipeline on a Hadoop-based platform. Wall-clock time for complete assembly differed by 52.9% (95% CI: 27.5–78.2) for E.coli and 53.5% (95% CI: 34.4–72.6) for human genome, with GCE being more efficient than EMR. The cost of running this experiment on EMR and GCE differed significantly, with the costs on EMR being 257.3% (95% CI: 211.5–303.1) and 173.9% (95% CI: 134.6–213.1) more expensive for E.coli and human assemblies respectively. Thus, GCE was found to outperform EMR both in terms of cost and wall-clock time. Our findings confirm that cloud computing is an efficient and potentially cost-effective alternative for analysis of large genomic datasets. In addition to releasing our cost-effectiveness comparison, we present available ready-to-use scripts for establishing Hadoop instances with Ganglia monitoring on EC2 or GCE. PMID:25247298
Hui, Junmin; Li, Wenjuan; Guo, Yanlei; Yang, Zhu; Wang, Yingxiong; Yu, Chao
2014-03-01
A new electrochemical sensor based on a novel organic-inorganic material (PNFCTs) was proposed for detection of paracetamol in this paper. First, PNFCTs were prepared with multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) and a derivative of 3,4,9,10-perylenetetracarboxylic dianhydride (PTC-NH2) via cross-linking method. Then, PNFCTs were coated onto the surface of the glassy carbon electrode (GCE) to form porous organic conducting polymer films (PNFCTs/GCE), which could not only increase the loading of paracetamol efficiently but also provide an interface with exceptional electrical conductivity for paracetamol. Finally, gold nanoparticles (GNPs) were attached to the electrode surface through electrodepositing method, which obtained GNPs/PNFCTs/GCE electrode. The electrochemical behavior of paracetamol on GNPs/PNFCTs/GCE was explored by cyclic voltammetrys (CVs) and differential pulse voltammograms (DPVs). The results showed that the GNPs/PNFCTs/GCE exhibited excellent electrocatalytic activity to paracetamol, which should be attributed to remarkable properties of the new composite nanomaterials with porous nanostructure and exceptional electrical conductivity. The wide liner range and detection limit were 0.3-575 and 0.1 μM, respectively. Finally, it was successfully used to detect paracetamol in dilution human serum and commercial tablets. The sensor shows great promise for simple, sensitive, and selective detection paracetamol and provides a promising approach in paracetamol clinical research and overdose diagnostic applications.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abazajian, Kevork N.; Keeley, Ryan E.
2016-04-01
We incorporate Milky Way dark matter halo profile uncertainties, as well as an accounting of diffuse gamma-ray emission uncertainties in dark matter annihilation models for the Galactic Center Extended gamma-ray excess (GCE) detected by the Fermi Gamma Ray Space Telescope. The range of particle annihilation rate and masses expand when including these unknowns. However, two of the most precise empirical determinations of the Milky Way halo's local density and density profile leave the signal region to be in considerable tension with dark matter annihilation searches from combined dwarf galaxy analyses for single-channel dark matter annihilation models. The GCE and dwarf tension can be alleviated if: one, the halo is very highly concentrated or strongly contracted; two, the dark matter annihilation signal differentiates between dwarfs and the GC; or, three, local stellar density measures are found to be significantly lower, like that from recent stellar counts, increasing the local dark matter density.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rybizki, Jan; Just, Andreas; Rix, Hans-Walter
2017-09-01
Elemental abundances of stars are the result of the complex enrichment history of their galaxy. Interpretation of observed abundances requires flexible modeling tools to explore and quantify the information about Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) stored in such data. Here we present Chempy, a newly developed code for GCE modeling, representing a parametrized open one-zone model within a Bayesian framework. A Chempy model is specified by a set of five to ten parameters that describe the effective galaxy evolution along with the stellar and star-formation physics: for example, the star-formation history (SFH), the feedback efficiency, the stellar initial mass function (IMF), and the incidence of supernova of type Ia (SN Ia). Unlike established approaches, Chempy can sample the posterior probability distribution in the full model parameter space and test data-model matches for different nucleosynthetic yield sets. It is essentially a chemical evolution fitting tool. We straightforwardly extend Chempy to a multi-zone scheme. As an illustrative application, we show that interesting parameter constraints result from only the ages and elemental abundances of the Sun, Arcturus, and the present-day interstellar medium (ISM). For the first time, we use such information to infer the IMF parameter via GCE modeling, where we properly marginalize over nuisance parameters and account for different yield sets. We find that 11.6+ 2.1-1.6% of the IMF explodes as core-collapse supernova (CC-SN), compatible with Salpeter (1955, ApJ, 121, 161). We also constrain the incidence of SN Ia per 103M⊙ to 0.5-1.4. At the same time, this Chempy application shows persistent discrepancies between predicted and observed abundances for some elements, irrespective of the chosen yield set. These cannot be remedied by any variations of Chempy's parameters and could be an indication of missing nucleosynthetic channels. Chempy could be a powerful tool to confront predictions from stellar nucleosynthesis with far more complex abundance data sets and to refine the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of stellar systems.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan
2017-10-01
Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.
Developing a Hybrid Virtualization Platform Design for Cyber Warfare Training and Education
2010-06-01
CYBER WARFARE TRAINING AND EDUCATION THESIS Kyle E. Stewart 2nd...Government. AFIT/GCE/ENG/10-06 DEVELOPING A HYBRID VIRTUALIZATION PLATFORM DESIGN FOR CYBER WARFARE TRAINING...APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. AFIT/GCE/ENG/10-06 DEVELOPING A HYBRID VIRTUALIZATION PLATFORM DESIGN FOR CYBER WARFARE
An Analysis of the GCE A* Grade
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Acquah, Daniel K.
2013-01-01
The General Certificate of Education (GCE) A* grade was first awarded to students in 2010. It was introduced to assist higher education institutions in differentiating between the highest performing students and to promote and reward greater stretch and challenge. This paper, based on a synthesis of key policy documents, an analysis of…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spurgin, C. B.
1986-03-01
The author discusses the concept of dimensions of a physical quantity, and the relationship between derived units (expressed in terms of their base units) and the dimensions of the derived quantities. He calls for the replacement of 'dimensions' by base units in the GCE A-level syllabus and provides some recommendations to GCE examining boards.
Taking "O" Level GCE Examinations: The Strategies Employed by Candidates and Their Teachers.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Francis, J.C.
1981-01-01
Examines the relationship of study techniques and test-taking strategies to success on the "O" level of the British General Certificate of Education (GCE) examination. Findings showed that teachers and students felt that course reviews, including study of past examinations, was the best preparation. (AM)
Applying Deweyan Principles to Global Citizenship Education in a Rural Context
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Waterson, Robert A.; Moffa, Eric D.
2015-01-01
Global citizenship education (GCE) helps students conceptualize citizenship beyond national boundaries so they are capable of action in dealing with global issues like human rights and environmental sustainability. However, very little literature exists to assist rural teachers in implementing GCE as they face specific challenges due to the…
Comparing Content in Selected GCE A Levels and Advanced GNVQs.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Holding, Gordon; And Others
1996-01-01
In an action research project, four British further education colleges compared mandatory units of three Advanced General National Vocational Qualifications (GNVQs)--business, art and design, and health and social care--with related General Certificate of Education Advanced Level (GCE A-level) syllabuses. Activities included a detailed comparison…
On the generation of climate model ensembles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy; Phipps, Steven J.
2014-10-01
Climate model ensembles are used to estimate uncertainty in future projections, typically by interpreting the ensemble distribution for a particular variable probabilistically. There are, however, different ways to produce climate model ensembles that yield different results, and therefore different probabilities for a future change in a variable. Perhaps equally importantly, there are different approaches to interpreting the ensemble distribution that lead to different conclusions. Here we use a reduced-resolution climate system model to compare three common ways to generate ensembles: initial conditions perturbation, physical parameter perturbation, and structural changes. Despite these three approaches conceptually representing very different categories of uncertainty within a modelling system, when comparing simulations to observations of surface air temperature they can be very difficult to separate. Using the twentieth century CMIP5 ensemble for comparison, we show that initial conditions ensembles, in theory representing internal variability, significantly underestimate observed variance. Structural ensembles, perhaps less surprisingly, exhibit over-dispersion in simulated variance. We argue that future climate model ensembles may need to include parameter or structural perturbation members in addition to perturbed initial conditions members to ensure that they sample uncertainty due to internal variability more completely. We note that where ensembles are over- or under-dispersive, such as for the CMIP5 ensemble, estimates of uncertainty need to be treated with care.
Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2000-01-01
The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.
Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.
2015-01-01
Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.
Residue-level global and local ensemble-ensemble comparisons of protein domains.
Clark, Sarah A; Tronrud, Dale E; Karplus, P Andrew
2015-09-01
Many methods of protein structure generation such as NMR-based solution structure determination and template-based modeling do not produce a single model, but an ensemble of models consistent with the available information. Current strategies for comparing ensembles lose information because they use only a single representative structure. Here, we describe the ENSEMBLATOR and its novel strategy to directly compare two ensembles containing the same atoms to identify significant global and local backbone differences between them on per-atom and per-residue levels, respectively. The ENSEMBLATOR has four components: eePREP (ee for ensemble-ensemble), which selects atoms common to all models; eeCORE, which identifies atoms belonging to a cutoff-distance dependent common core; eeGLOBAL, which globally superimposes all models using the defined core atoms and calculates for each atom the two intraensemble variations, the interensemble variation, and the closest approach of members of the two ensembles; and eeLOCAL, which performs a local overlay of each dipeptide and, using a novel measure of local backbone similarity, reports the same four variations as eeGLOBAL. The combination of eeGLOBAL and eeLOCAL analyses identifies the most significant differences between ensembles. We illustrate the ENSEMBLATOR's capabilities by showing how using it to analyze NMR ensembles and to compare NMR ensembles with crystal structures provides novel insights compared to published studies. One of these studies leads us to suggest that a "consistency check" of NMR-derived ensembles may be a useful analysis step for NMR-based structure determinations in general. The ENSEMBLATOR 1.0 is available as a first generation tool to carry out ensemble-ensemble comparisons. © 2015 The Protein Society.
Residue-level global and local ensemble-ensemble comparisons of protein domains
Clark, Sarah A; Tronrud, Dale E; Andrew Karplus, P
2015-01-01
Many methods of protein structure generation such as NMR-based solution structure determination and template-based modeling do not produce a single model, but an ensemble of models consistent with the available information. Current strategies for comparing ensembles lose information because they use only a single representative structure. Here, we describe the ENSEMBLATOR and its novel strategy to directly compare two ensembles containing the same atoms to identify significant global and local backbone differences between them on per-atom and per-residue levels, respectively. The ENSEMBLATOR has four components: eePREP (ee for ensemble-ensemble), which selects atoms common to all models; eeCORE, which identifies atoms belonging to a cutoff-distance dependent common core; eeGLOBAL, which globally superimposes all models using the defined core atoms and calculates for each atom the two intraensemble variations, the interensemble variation, and the closest approach of members of the two ensembles; and eeLOCAL, which performs a local overlay of each dipeptide and, using a novel measure of local backbone similarity, reports the same four variations as eeGLOBAL. The combination of eeGLOBAL and eeLOCAL analyses identifies the most significant differences between ensembles. We illustrate the ENSEMBLATOR's capabilities by showing how using it to analyze NMR ensembles and to compare NMR ensembles with crystal structures provides novel insights compared to published studies. One of these studies leads us to suggest that a “consistency check” of NMR-derived ensembles may be a useful analysis step for NMR-based structure determinations in general. The ENSEMBLATOR 1.0 is available as a first generation tool to carry out ensemble-ensemble comparisons. PMID:26032515
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-L.; Johnson, D; Simpson, J.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
A two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model is used to simulate convective systems that developed in various geographic locations. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum derived from field campaigns are used as the main forcing. By examining the surface energy budgets, the model results show that the two largest terms are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening) for tropical oceanic cases. These two terms arc opposite in sign, however. The contributions by net radiation and latent heat flux to the net condensation vary in these tropical cases, however. For cloud systems that developed over the South China Sea and eastern Atlantic, net radiation (cooling) accounts for about 20% or more of the net condensation. However, short-wave heating and long-wave cooling are in balance with each other for cloud systems over the West Pacific region such that the net radiation is very small. This is due to the thick anvil clouds simulated in the cloud systems over the Pacific region. Large-scale cooling exceeds large-scale moistening in the Pacific and Atlantic cases. For cloud systems over the South China Sea, however, there is more large-scale moistening than cooling even though the cloud systems developed in a very moist environment. though For three cloud systems that developed over a mid-latitude continent, the net radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes play a much more important role. This means the accurate measurement of surface fluxes and radiation is crucial for simulating these mid-latitude cases.
Exploring the calibration of a wind forecast ensemble for energy applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heppelmann, Tobias; Ben Bouallegue, Zied; Theis, Susanne
2015-04-01
In the German research project EWeLiNE, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) are collaborating with three German Transmission System Operators (TSO) in order to provide the TSOs with improved probabilistic power forecasts. Probabilistic power forecasts are derived from probabilistic weather forecasts, themselves derived from ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Since the considered raw ensemble wind forecasts suffer from underdispersiveness and bias, calibration methods are developed for the correction of the model bias and the ensemble spread bias. The overall aim is to improve the ensemble forecasts such that the uncertainty of the possible weather deployment is depicted by the ensemble spread from the first forecast hours. Additionally, the ensemble members after calibration should remain physically consistent scenarios. We focus on probabilistic hourly wind forecasts with horizon of 21 h delivered by the convection permitting high-resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS which has become operational in 2012 at DWD. The ensemble consists of 20 ensemble members driven by four different global models. The model area includes whole Germany and parts of Central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical resolution of 50 model levels. For verification we use wind mast measurements around 100 m height that corresponds to the hub height of wind energy plants that belong to wind farms within the model area. Calibration of the ensemble forecasts can be performed by different statistical methods applied to the raw ensemble output. Here, we explore local bivariate Ensemble Model Output Statistics at individual sites and quantile regression with different predictors. Applying different methods, we already show an improvement of ensemble wind forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS for energy applications. In addition, an ensemble copula coupling approach transfers the time-dependencies of the raw ensemble to the calibrated ensemble. The calibrated wind forecasts are evaluated first with univariate probabilistic scores and additionally with diagnostics of wind ramps in order to assess the time-consistency of the calibrated ensemble members.
Enhancing GCE A-Level Programmes.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Holding, Gordon
This document, which is based on the findings of a study of 10 further education (FE) colleges throughout the United Kingdom, is intended to help FE colleges review and enhance their curriculum for 16- to 19-year-old students in General Certificate of Education (GCE) A-level (Advanced Level) courses. Discussed first are the following reasons for…
An Examination of High School Students' Disparate Academic Performance in the Bahamas
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McCartney, Donald M.
2013-01-01
The qualitative, historical, ethnographic study explored the perceived disparity between the General Certificate of Education (GCE) examination and The Bahamas General Certificate of Secondary Education (BGCSE) and the disparity in the academic achievement of high school students who took the GCE examination and those who took the BGCSE…
Digital Democracy and Global Citizenship Education: Mutually Compatible or Mutually Complicit?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
de Oliveira Andreotti, Vanessa; Pashby, Karen
2013-01-01
This article uses a critique of modernity to examine the perceived relationship between global citizenship education (GCE) and digital democracy (DD). We review critiques of citizenship education in the global imperative and of the relationship of technology to democratic engagement. An analogy expresses the problematic way that GCE and DD are…
Sęczyk, Łukasz; Świeca, Michał; Gawlik-Dziki, Urszula
2017-05-15
This study investigated the effect of soymilk fortification with green coffee extract (GCE) on phenolic contents, antioxidant capacity, relative in vitro digestibility of proteins and starch, and consumer acceptance. Special attention was paid to the effect of phenolics-food matrix interactions on fortification efficiency. Soymilk was enriched with GCE extracts containing 0.025-1mg of phenolics per 1mL-samples M1-M6. Compared to control, an increase in phenolic contents of up to 70% (M6) was observed for potentially bioaccessible fractions (AD). The antiradical activity and reducing power were also about 1.9 and 10.1 times higher, respectively. However, the determined phenolic and antioxidant activities differed from those predicted. Fortification improved the digestibility of nutrients when higher doses of GCE was introduced (M4-M6). The addition of GCE at an adequate dose allowed the production of a beverage with elevated hedonic properties. In conclusion, fortification was a successful in improving the pro-health status of soymilk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mijowska, Ewa; Onyszko, Magdalena; Urbas, Karolina; Aleksandrzak, Malgorzata; Shi, Xiaoze; Moszyński, Dariusz; Penkala, Krzysztof; Podolski, Jacek; El Fray, Mirosława
2015-11-01
This paper reports on the fabrication and characterization of glucose oxidase (GOx) immobilized onto a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with reduced graphene oxide/palladium nanocomposite (RGO-Pd). Characterization tools showed well dispersed uniform Pd nanoparticles on a partly reduced graphene oxide surface. Cyclic voltammetry demonstrated successful immobilization of GOx on RGO-Pd modified GCE (GCE-RGO-Pd) using covalent bonding of GOx with RGO-Pd (RGO-Pd-GOx). Therefore, it was used as an electrochemical biosensor of glucose. RGO-Pd-GOx exhibited good electrocatalysis toward glucose in different glucose concentrations (from 2 to 10 mM, which includes the blood glucose levels of both normal and diabetic persons) with O2 saturated phosphate buffer solution (PBS) at pH 7.4. The system showed a linear increase in current at potential -0.085 V in the concentration range examined, with a correlation coefficient of 0.996. The sensitivity of the biosensor was 41.3 μA cm-2 mM-1, suggesting that RGO-Pd-GOx-modified GCE could be a potential candidate as a glucose sensor.
Jayakumar, C; Magdalane, C Maria; Kaviyarasu, K; Kulandainathan, M Anbu; Jeyaraj, Boniface; Maaza, M
2018-07-01
A simple and reliable voltammetric sensor for simultaneous determination of Catechol (CT) and Hydroquinone (HQ) was developed by electrodepositing the gold nanoparticles on the surface of the Glassy Carbon Electrode (GCE). The cyclic voltammograms in a mixed solution of CT and HQ have shown that the oxidation peaks become well resolved and were separated by 110 mV, although the bare GCE gave a single broad oxidation peak. Moreover, the oxidation peak currents of both CT and HQ were remarkably increased three times in comparison with the bare GCE. This makes gold nanoparticles deposited GCE a suitable candidate for the determination of these isomers. In the presence of 1 mM HQ isomer, the oxidation peak currents of differential pulse voltammograms are proportional to the concentration of CT in the range of 21 μM to 323 μM with limit of detection 3.0 μM (S/N = 3). The proposed sensor has some important advantages such as low cost, ease of preparation, good stability and high reproducibility.
Wnt Signaling Cross-Talks with JH Signaling by Suppressing Met and gce Expression
Abdou, Mohamed; Peng, Cheng; Huang, Jianhua; Zyaan, Ola; Wang, Sheng; Li, Sheng; Wang, Jian
2011-01-01
Juvenile hormone (JH) plays key roles in controlling insect growth and metamorphosis. However, relatively little is known about the JH signaling pathways. Until recent years, increasing evidence has suggested that JH modulates the action of 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) by regulating expression of broad (br), a 20E early response gene, through Met/Gce and Kr-h1. To identify other genes involved in JH signaling, we designed a novel Drosophila genetic screen to isolate mutations that derepress JH-mediated br suppression at early larval stages. We found that mutations in three Wnt signaling negative regulators in Drosophila, Axin (Axn), supernumerary limbs (slmb), and naked cuticle (nkd), caused precocious br expression, which could not be blocked by exogenous JHA. A similar phenotype was observed when armadillo (arm), the mediator of Wnt signaling, was overexpressed. qRT-PCR revealed that Met, gce and Kr-h1expression was suppressed in the Axn, slmb and nkd mutants as well as in arm gain-of-function larvae. Furthermore, ectopic expression of gce restored Kr-h1 expression but not Met expression in the arm gain-of-function larvae. Taken together, we conclude that Wnt signaling cross-talks with JH signaling by suppressing transcription of Met and gce, genes that encode for putative JH receptors. The reduced JH activity further induces down-regulation of Kr-h1expression and eventually derepresses br expression in the Drosophila early larval stages. PMID:22087234
Yi, Hongchao
2003-10-01
An electrochemical method for the determination of trace levels of mercury based on a multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNT) film coated glassy carbon electrode (GCE) is described. In 0.1 mol L(-1) HCl solution containing 0.02 mol L(-1) KI, Hg(2+) was firstly preconcentrated at the MWNT film and then reduced at -0.60 V. During the anodic potential sweep, reduced mercury was oxidized, and then a sensitive and well-defined stripping peak at about -0.20 V appeared. Under identical conditions, a MWNT film coated GCE greatly enhances the stripping peak current of mercury in contrast to a bare GCE. Low concentrations of I(-) remarkably improve the determining sensitivity, since this increases the accumulation efficiency of Hg(2+) at the MWNT film coated GCE. The stripping peak current is proportional to the concentration of Hg(2+) over the range 8 x 10(-10)-5 x 10(-7) mol L(-1). The lowest detectable concentration of Hg(2+) is 2 x 10(-10) mol L(-1) at 5 min accumulation. The relative standard deviation (RSD) at 1 x 10(-8) mol L(-1) Hg(2+) was about 6% ( n=10). By using this proposed method, Hg(2+) in some water samples was determined, and the results were compared with those obtained by atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS). The two results are similar, suggesting that the MWNT-film coated GCE has great potential in practical analysis.
Deng, Wenfang; Yuan, Xiaoyan; Tan, Yueming; Ma, Ming; Xie, Qingji
2016-11-15
Three-dimensional (3D) graphene-like carbon frameworks (3DGLCFs) were facilely prepared via copyrolysis of polyaniline and nickel nitrate powder, followed by acid etching. The as-prepared 3DGLCFs possess graphene-like network structure, high specific surface area, and high content nitrogen dopant. Because these features enable large electrochemically active surface area, rapid electron transfer, and fast transport of analytes to electrode surface, the 3DGLCFs modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) shows current response much higher than commercial graphene (CG) modified GCE towards the oxidation of ascorbic acid (AA), dopamine (DA) and uric acid (UA). The anodic peak separations at 3DGLCFs/GCE are 0.23V between AA and DA, 0.13V between DA and UA, and 0.36V between AA and UA. For the simultaneous electrochemical determination of AA, DA and UA using differential pulse voltammetry, the 3DGLCFs/GCE shows linear response ranges of 1.25×10(-5)-4×10(-4)M for AA, 5×10(-8)-1.0×10(-5)M for DA, and 5×10(-8)-1.5×10(-5)M for UA, with low detection limits of 2×10(-6)M for AA, 1×10(-8)M for DA, and 1×10(-8)M for UA. The 3DGLCFs/GCE was also applied for the measurement of human serum, exhibiting satisfactory recoveries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Evaluating Sustainable Development Solutions Quantitatively: Competence Modelling for GCE and ESD
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Böhm, Marko; Eggert, Sabina; Barkmann, Jan; Bögeholz, Susanne
2016-01-01
To comprehensively address global environmental challenges such as biodiversity loss, citizens need an understanding of the socio-economic fundamentals of human behaviour in relation to natural resources. We argue that Global Citizenship Education and Education for Sustainable Development provide a core set of socio-economic competencies that can…
Assimilator Ensemble Post-processor (EnsPost) Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) Ensemble Verification capabilities (see diagram below): the Ensemble Pre-processor, the Ensemble Post-processor, the Hydrologic Model (OpenDA, http://www.openda.org/joomla/index.php) to be used within the CHPS environment. Ensemble Post
Chen, Hong; Chen, Qiong; Zhao, Yingying; Zhang, Fan; Yang, Fan; Tang, Jie; He, Pingang
2014-04-01
A sensitive and label-free electrochemiluminescence (ECL) aptasensor for the detection of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) was successfully designed using host-guest recognition between a metallocyclodextrin complex, i.e., tris(bipyridine)ruthenium(II)-β-cyclodextrin [tris(bpyRu)-β-CD], and an ATP-binding aptamer. In the protocol, the NH2-terminated aptamer was immobilized on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) by a coupling interaction. After host-guest recognition between tris(bpyRu)-β-CD and aptamer, the tris(bpyRu)-β-CD/aptamer/GCE produced a strong ECL signal as a result of the photoactive properties of tris(bpyRu)-β-CD. However, in the presence of ATP, the ATP/aptamer complex was formed preferentially, which restricted host-guest recognition, and therefore less tris(bpyRu)-β-CD was attached to the GCE surface, resulting in an obvious decrease in the ECL intensity. Under optimal determination conditions, an excellent logarithmic linear relationship between the ECL decrease and ATP concentration was obtained in the range 10.0-0.05 nM, with a detection limit of 0.01 nM at the S/N ratio of 3. The proposed ECL-based ATP aptasensor exhibited high sensitivity and selectivity, without time-consuming signal-labeling procedures, and is considered to be a promising model for detection of aptamer-specific targets. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.
2009-01-01
An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.
A Simple Approach to Account for Climate Model Interdependence in Multi-Model Ensembles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herger, N.; Abramowitz, G.; Angelil, O. M.; Knutti, R.; Sanderson, B.
2016-12-01
Multi-model ensembles are an indispensable tool for future climate projection and its uncertainty quantification. Ensembles containing multiple climate models generally have increased skill, consistency and reliability. Due to the lack of agreed-on alternatives, most scientists use the equally-weighted multi-model mean as they subscribe to model democracy ("one model, one vote").Different research groups are known to share sections of code, parameterizations in their model, literature, or even whole model components. Therefore, individual model runs do not represent truly independent estimates. Ignoring this dependence structure might lead to a false model consensus, wrong estimation of uncertainty and effective number of independent models.Here, we present a way to partially address this problem by selecting a subset of CMIP5 model runs so that its climatological mean minimizes the RMSE compared to a given observation product. Due to the cancelling out of errors, regional biases in the ensemble mean are reduced significantly.Using a model-as-truth experiment we demonstrate that those regional biases persist into the future and we are not fitting noise, thus providing improved observationally-constrained projections of the 21st century. The optimally selected ensemble shows significantly higher global mean surface temperature projections than the original ensemble, where all the model runs are considered. Moreover, the spread is decreased well beyond that expected from the decreased ensemble size.Several previous studies have recommended an ensemble selection approach based on performance ranking of the model runs. Here, we show that this approach can perform even worse than randomly selecting ensemble members and can thus be harmful. We suggest that accounting for interdependence in the ensemble selection process is a necessary step for robust projections for use in impact assessments, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.
Pauci ex tanto numero: reducing redundancy in multi-model ensembles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.
2013-02-01
We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date no attempts in this direction are documented within the air quality (AQ) community, although the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared biases among models will determine a biased ensemble, making therefore essential the errors of the ensemble members to be independent so that bias can cancel out. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated) we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores, that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fielding, A.
1995-01-01
Reanalyzes H. Thomas's 1980s data, which used teaching group as the unit of analysis and illuminated some institutional disparities in provision of General Certificate of Education (GCE) A-levels. Uses multilevel analysis to focus on individual students in a hierarchical framework. Among the study institutions, school sixth forms appear less…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Stringer, Neil Simon
2012-01-01
General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) and General Certificate of Education (GCE) grading standards are determined by Awarding Bodies using procedures that adhere to the Code of Practice published by the regulator, Ofqual. Grade boundary marks (cut scores) are set using subject experts' (senior examiners) judgement of the quality of…
Sensitive detection of hydroxylamine at a simple baicalin carbon nanotubes modified electrode.
Zhang, Hongfang; Zheng, Jianbin
2012-05-15
A baicalin multi-wall carbon nanotubes (BaMWCNT) modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) for the sensitive determination of hydroxylamine was described. The BaMWCNT/GCE with dramatic stability was firstly fabricated with a simple adsorption method. And it showed excellent catalytic activity toward the electrooxidation of hydroxylamine. The amperometric response at the BaMWCNT/GCE modified electrode increased linearly to hydroxylamine concentrations in the range of 0.5 μM to 0.4mM with a detection limit of 0.1 μM. The modified electrode was applied to detection hydroxylamine in the tap water, and the average recovery for the standards added was 96.0%. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Lee, Eunhee; Kim, Daekun; You, Jung-Min; Kim, Seul Ki; Yun, Mira; Jeon, Seungwon
2012-12-01
Pd nanoparticle catalysts supported by thiolated graphene oxide (tGO) on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE), and denoted as tGO-Pd/GCE, are used in this study for the electrochemical determination of hydroxylamine and hydrazine. The physicochemical properties of tGO-Pd were characterized by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). They showed strong catalytic activity toward the oxidation of hydroxylamine and hydrazine. Cyclic voltammetry (CV) and amperometry were used to characterize the sensors' performances. The detection limits of hydroxylamine and hydrazine by tGO-Pd/GCE were 0.31 and 0.25 microM (s/n = 3), respectively. The sensors' sensitivity, selectivity, and stability were also investigated.
NMSSM interpretation of the Galactic Center excess
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cheung, Clifford; Papucci, Michele; Sanford, David; Shah, Nausheen R.; Zurek, Kathryn M.
2014-10-01
We explore models for the GeV Galactic Center excess (GCE) observed by the Fermi Telescope, focusing on χχ→ff ¯ annihilation processes in the Z3 next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model (NMSSM). We begin by examining the requirements for a simplified model [parametrized by the couplings and masses of dark matter (DM) and mediator particles] to reproduce the GCE via χχ→ff ¯, while simultaneously thermally producing the observed relic abundance. We apply the results of our simplified model to the Z3 NMSSM for singlino/Higgsino (S/H) or bino/Higgsino (B/H) DM. In the case of S/H DM, we find that the DM must be very close to a pseudoscalar resonance to be viable, and large tanβ and positive values of μ are preferred for evading direct detection constraints while simultaneously obtaining the observed Higgs mass. In the case of B/H DM, by contrast, the situation is much less tuned: annihilation generally occurs off resonance, and for large tanβ, direct detection constraints are easily satisfied by choosing μ sufficiently large and negative. The B/H model generally has a light, largely MSSM-like pseudoscalar with no accompanying charged Higgs, which could be searched for at the LHC.
Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.
2017-12-01
Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been largely corrected on short-term predictions. For the longer term, the addition of the multi-model member has been beneficial to the quality of the predictions, although it is too early to determine whether the gain is related to the addition of a member or if multi-model member has plus-value itself.
Statistical Ensemble of Large Eddy Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carati, Daniele; Rogers, Michael M.; Wray, Alan A.; Mansour, Nagi N. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A statistical ensemble of large eddy simulations (LES) is run simultaneously for the same flow. The information provided by the different large scale velocity fields is used to propose an ensemble averaged version of the dynamic model. This produces local model parameters that only depend on the statistical properties of the flow. An important property of the ensemble averaged dynamic procedure is that it does not require any spatial averaging and can thus be used in fully inhomogeneous flows. Also, the ensemble of LES's provides statistics of the large scale velocity that can be used for building new models for the subgrid-scale stress tensor. The ensemble averaged dynamic procedure has been implemented with various models for three flows: decaying isotropic turbulence, forced isotropic turbulence, and the time developing plane wake. It is found that the results are almost independent of the number of LES's in the statistical ensemble provided that the ensemble contains at least 16 realizations.
Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed.
Baran, S; Lerch, S
2016-03-01
Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive probability density functions. The EMOS predictive probability density function is given by a parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble forecasts. We propose an EMOS model for calibrating wind speed forecasts based on weighted mixtures of truncated normal (TN) and log-normal (LN) distributions where model parameters and component weights are estimated by optimizing the values of proper scoring rules over a rolling training period. The new model is tested on wind speed forecasts of the 50 member European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ensemble, the 11 member Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement International-Hungary Ensemble Prediction System ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, and its predictive performance is compared with that of various benchmark EMOS models based on single parametric families and combinations thereof. The results indicate improved calibration of probabilistic and accuracy of point forecasts in comparison with the raw ensemble and climatological forecasts. The mixture EMOS model significantly outperforms the TN and LN EMOS methods; moreover, it provides better calibrated forecasts than the TN-LN combination model and offers an increased flexibility while avoiding covariate selection problems. © 2016 The Authors Environmetrics Published by JohnWiley & Sons Ltd.
Ensemble Downscaling of Winter Seasonal Forecasts: The MRED Project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arritt, R. W.; Mred Team
2010-12-01
The Multi-Regional climate model Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project is a multi-institutional project that is producing large ensembles of downscaled winter seasonal forecasts from coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal prediction models. Eight regional climate models each are downscaling 15-member ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the new NASA seasonal forecast system based on the GEOS5 atmospheric model coupled with the MOM4 ocean model. This produces 240-member ensembles, i.e., 8 regional models x 15 global ensemble members x 2 global models, for each winter season (December-April) of 1982-2003. Results to date show that combined global-regional downscaled forecasts have greatest skill for seasonal precipitation anomalies during strong El Niño events such as 1982-83 and 1997-98. Ensemble means of area-averaged seasonal precipitation for the regional models generally track the corresponding results for the global model, though there is considerable inter-model variability amongst the regional models. For seasons and regions where area mean precipitation is accurately simulated the regional models bring added value by extracting greater spatial detail from the global forecasts, mainly due to better resolution of terrain in the regional models. Our results also emphasize that an ensemble approach is essential to realizing the added value from the combined global-regional modeling system.
Pauci ex tanto numero: reduce redundancy in multi-model ensembles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.
2013-08-01
We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date, no attempts in this direction have been documented within the air quality (AQ) community despite the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared, dependant biases among models do not cancel out but will instead determine a biased ensemble. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated), we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores; that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fielding, A.
1998-01-01
Applies multilevel models of cost-effectiveness to numerous types of (British) institutions providing courses of instruction in the General Certificate of Education at Advanced Level. Different impressions may be gained about an institution's relative effectiveness when cost considerations are combined with outcome measures. Data evaluation needs…
2013-09-01
control GCE ground combat element LCE logistics combat element MAGTF Marine Air Ground Task Force MWCS Marine Wing Communications Squadron NPS Naval...elements: command element (CE), ground combat el- ement ( GCE ), aviation combat element (ACE), and logistics combat element (LCE). Each ele- ment...This layer provides unimpeded high-speed connectivity between remote sites and the Internet. Limited security policies are applied at this level to
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Weil, Robert
1978-01-01
Advanced level French syllabuses of the nine GCE Boards in the United Kingdom are examined. The Southern Universities Joint Board has recently introduced the most radical innovations. As an alternative to its traditional examination it offers Syllabus "B" which dispenses with prescribed tests, but where each student must produce for the…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Alviar-Martin, Theresa; Baildon, Mark C.
2016-01-01
This qualitative, comparative case study examined global civic education (GCE) in the Asian global cities of Hong Kong and Singapore. Guided by theories that position curriculum at the intersection of discourse, context, and personal meaning-making, we sought to describe the ways in which intentions for GCE reflect broader societal discourses of…
A Comparison of AH6 AG Scores and GCE Examinations Taken after an Interval of One Year
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Heim, A. W.; And Others
1972-01-01
GCE O-and A-level examinations were correlated with the AH6 AG test scores obtained a year earlier. Results suggest that the predictive value of AH6 for success in individual subjects is almost as high as when the examinations and testing were taken within a few weeks of each other. (Authors/CB)
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Palmer, Nicholas
2016-01-01
The purpose of this research was to determine the depth and scope of Global Citizenship Education (GCE) through the International Baccalaureate (IB) Primary Years Programme (PYP) exhibition. The small-scale qualitative study describes how a fifth-grade cohort and teachers at The International School of Azerbaijan uncover GCE in situ. Drawing on…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loftus, Adrian; Tsay, Si-Chee; Nguyen, Xuan Anh
2016-04-01
Low-level stratocumulus (Sc) clouds cover more of the Earth's surface than any other cloud type rendering them critical for Earth's energy balance, primarily via reflection of solar radiation, as well as their role in the global hydrological cycle. Stratocumuli are particularly sensitive to changes in aerosol loading on both microphysical and macrophysical scales, yet the complex feedbacks involved in aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions remain poorly understood. Moreover, research on these clouds has largely been confined to marine environments, with far fewer studies over land where major sources of anthropogenic aerosols exist. The aerosol burden over Southeast Asia (SEA) in boreal spring, attributed to biomass burning (BB), exhibits highly consistent spatiotemporal distribution patterns, with major variability due to changes in aerosol loading mediated by processes ranging from large-scale climate factors to diurnal meteorological events. Downwind from source regions, the transported BB aerosols often overlap with low-level Sc cloud decks associated with the development of the region's pre-monsoon system, providing a unique, natural laboratory for further exploring their complex micro- and macro-scale relationships. Compared to other locations worldwide, studies of springtime biomass-burning aerosols and the predominately Sc cloud systems over SEA and their ensuing interactions are underrepresented in scientific literature. Measurements of aerosol and cloud properties, whether ground-based or from satellites, generally lack information on microphysical processes; thus cloud-resolving models are often employed to simulate the underlying physical processes in aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model has recently been enhanced with a triple-moment (3M) bulk microphysics scheme as well as the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 6 aerosol module. Because the aerosol burden not only affects cloud droplet size and number concentration, but also the spectral width of the cloud droplet size distribution, the 3M scheme is well suited to simulate aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions within a three-dimensional regional cloud model. Moreover, the additional variability predicted on the hydrometeor distributions provides beneficial input for forward models to link the simulated microphysical processes with observations as well as to assess both ground-based and satellite retrieval methods. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the 7 South East Asian Studies / Biomass-burning Aerosols and Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles and Interactions Experiment (7-SEAS/BASELInE) operations during the spring of 2013. Preliminary analyses of pre-monsoon Sc system lifecycles observed during the first-ever deployment of a ground-based cloud radar to northern Vietnam will be also be presented. Initial results from GCE model simulations of these Sc using double-moment and the new 3M bulk microphysics schemes under various aerosol loadings will be used to showcase the 3M scheme as well as provide insight into how the impact of aerosols on cloud and precipitation processes in stratocumulus over land may manifest themselves in simulated remote-sensing signals. Applications and future work involving ongoing 7-SEAS campaigns aimed at improving our understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions of will also be discussed.
Ensemble habitat mapping of invasive plant species
Stohlgren, T.J.; Ma, P.; Kumar, S.; Rocca, M.; Morisette, J.T.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Benson, N.
2010-01-01
Ensemble species distribution models combine the strengths of several species environmental matching models, while minimizing the weakness of any one model. Ensemble models may be particularly useful in risk analysis of recently arrived, harmful invasive species because species may not yet have spread to all suitable habitats, leaving species-environment relationships difficult to determine. We tested five individual models (logistic regression, boosted regression trees, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and maximum entropy model or Maxent) and ensemble modeling for selected nonnative plant species in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, Wyoming; Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, and areas of interior Alaska. The models are based on field data provided by the park staffs, combined with topographic, climatic, and vegetation predictors derived from satellite data. For the four invasive plant species tested, ensemble models were the only models that ranked in the top three models for both field validation and test data. Ensemble models may be more robust than individual species-environment matching models for risk analysis. ?? 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Yan; Hao, Huilian; Wang, Linlin
2016-12-01
Electrochemically reduced graphene oxide (ERGO) is widely used to construct electrochemical sensors. Understanding the electron transfer behavior of ERGO is essential for its electrode material applications. In this paper, different morphologies of ERGO were prepared via two different methods. Compared to ERGO/GCEs prepared by electrochemical reduction of pre-deposited GO, more exposed edge planes of ERGO are observed on the surface of ERGO-GCE that was constructed by electrophoretic deposition of GO. The defect densities of ERGO were controlled by tuning the mass or concentration of GO. The electron transfer kinetics (k0) of GCE with different ERGOs was comparatively investigated. Owing to increased surface areas and decreased defect density, the k0 values of ERGO/GCE initially increase and then decrease with incrementing of GO mass. When the morphology and surface real areas of ERGO-GCE are the same, an increased defect density induces an accelerated electron transfer rate. k0 valuesof ERGO-GCEs are about 1 order of magnitude higher than those of ERGO/GCEs due to the difference in the amount of edge planes. This work demonstrates that both defect densities and edge planes of ERGO play crucial roles in electron transfer kinetics.
Lack of effect of a granulocyte proliferation inhibitor or their committed precursor cells.
Lord, B I; Testa, N G; Wright, E G; Banerjee, R K
1977-05-01
Using the agar culture technique, we have measured the effect of granulocyte extracts GCE (and of erythrocyte-RCE and lymph node extracts-LNE) on the growth and proliferation of the committed granulocytic precursor cells, CFU-C. In addition we have determined their effects on the proliferation of the developing colony cells and on the ultimate cell production in the colonies. The results show that GCE has no effect on the growth or proliferative activity on the CFU-C. It does, however, reduce both the autoradiographic labelling indices of the developing colony cells and the net colony cellularities, acting as a cell cycle modulator. These are effects specific to the GCE since at the dose levels used, neither RCE nor LNE affected these measurements.
Analyzing the impact of changing size and composition of a crop model ensemble
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodríguez, Alfredo
2017-04-01
The use of an ensemble of crop growth simulation models is a practice recently adopted in order to quantify aspects of uncertainties in model simulations. Yet, while the climate modelling community has extensively investigated the properties of model ensembles and their implications, this has hardly been investigated for crop model ensembles (Wallach et al., 2016). In their ensemble of 27 wheat models, Martre et al. (2015) found that the accuracy of the multi-model ensemble-average only increases up to an ensemble size of ca. 10, but does not improve when including more models in the analysis. However, even when this number of members is reached, questions about the impact of the addition or removal of a member to/from the ensemble arise. When selecting ensemble members, identifying members with poor performance or giving implausible results can make a large difference on the outcome. The objective of this study is to set up a methodology that defines indicators to show the effects of changing the ensemble composition and size on simulation results, when a selection procedure of ensemble members is applied. Ensemble mean or median, and variance are measures used to depict ensemble results among other indicators. We are utilizing simulations from an ensemble of wheat models that have been used to construct impact response surfaces (Pirttioja et al., 2015) (IRSs). These show the response of an impact variable (e.g., crop yield) to systematic changes in two explanatory variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature). Using these, we compare different sub-ensembles in terms of the mean, median and spread, and also by comparing IRSs. The methodology developed here allows comparing an ensemble before and after applying any procedure that changes the ensemble composition and size by measuring the impact of this decision on the ensemble central tendency measures. The methodology could also be further developed to compare the effect of changing ensemble composition and size on IRS features. References Martre, P., Wallach, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Jones, J.W., Rötter, R.P., Boote, K.J., Ruane, A.C., Thorburn, P.J., Cammarano, D., Hatfield, J.L., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P.K., Angulo, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Brisson, N., Challinor, A.J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R.F., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L.A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Kersebaum, K.C., Muller, C., Kumar, S.N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J.E., Osborne, T.M., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M.A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stockle, C.O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F.L., Travasso, M., Waha, K., White, J.W., Wolf, J., 2015. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 911-925. Pirttioja N., Carter T., Fronzek S., Bindi M., Hoffmann H., Palosuo T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Tao F., Trnka M., Acutis M., Asseng S., Baranowski P., Basso B., Bodin P., Buis S., Cammarano D., Deligios P., Destain M.-F., Doro L., Dumont B., Ewert F., Ferrise R., Francois L., Gaiser T., Hlavinka P., Jacquemin I., Kersebaum K.-C., Kollas C., Krzyszczak J., Lorite I. J., Minet J., Minguez M. I., Montesion M., Moriondo M., Müller C., Nendel C., Öztürk I., Perego A., Rodriguez, A., Ruane A.C., Ruget F., Sanna M., Semenov M., Slawinski C., Stratonovitch P., Supit I., Waha K., Wang E., Wu L., Zhao Z., Rötter R.P, 2015. A crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces. Clim. Res., 65:87-105, doi:10.3354/cr01322 Wallach, D., Mearns, L.O. Ruane, A.C., Rötter, R.P., Asseng, S. (2016). Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling. Climate Change (in press) doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1803-1.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Niu, Mingfei; Wang, Yufang; Sun, Shaolong; Li, Yongwu
2016-06-01
To enhance prediction reliability and accuracy, a hybrid model based on the promising principle of "decomposition and ensemble" and a recently proposed meta-heuristic called grey wolf optimizer (GWO) is introduced for daily PM2.5 concentration forecasting. Compared with existing PM2.5 forecasting methods, this proposed model has improved the prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction. The proposed model involves three main steps, i.e., decomposing the original PM2.5 series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) via complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) for simplifying the complex data; individually predicting each IMF with support vector regression (SVR) optimized by GWO; integrating all predicted IMFs for the ensemble result as the final prediction by another SVR optimized by GWO. Seven benchmark models, including single artificial intelligence (AI) models, other decomposition-ensemble models with different decomposition methods and models with the same decomposition-ensemble method but optimized by different algorithms, are considered to verify the superiority of the proposed hybrid model. The empirical study indicates that the proposed hybrid decomposition-ensemble model is remarkably superior to all considered benchmark models for its higher prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction.
Modeling task-specific neuronal ensembles improves decoding of grasp
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Ryan J.; Soares, Alcimar B.; Rouse, Adam G.; Schieber, Marc H.; Thakor, Nitish V.
2018-06-01
Objective. Dexterous movement involves the activation and coordination of networks of neuronal populations across multiple cortical regions. Attempts to model firing of individual neurons commonly treat the firing rate as directly modulating with motor behavior. However, motor behavior may additionally be associated with modulations in the activity and functional connectivity of neurons in a broader ensemble. Accounting for variations in neural ensemble connectivity may provide additional information about the behavior being performed. Approach. In this study, we examined neural ensemble activity in primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor cortex (PM) of two male rhesus monkeys during performance of a center-out reach, grasp and manipulate task. We constructed point process encoding models of neuronal firing that incorporated task-specific variations in the baseline firing rate as well as variations in functional connectivity with the neural ensemble. Models were evaluated both in terms of their encoding capabilities and their ability to properly classify the grasp being performed. Main results. Task-specific ensemble models correctly predicted the performed grasp with over 95% accuracy and were shown to outperform models of neuronal activity that assume only a variable baseline firing rate. Task-specific ensemble models exhibited superior decoding performance in 82% of units in both monkeys (p < 0.01). Inclusion of ensemble activity also broadly improved the ability of models to describe observed spiking. Encoding performance of task-specific ensemble models, measured by spike timing predictability, improved upon baseline models in 62% of units. Significance. These results suggest that additional discriminative information about motor behavior found in the variations in functional connectivity of neuronal ensembles located in motor-related cortical regions is relevant to decode complex tasks such as grasping objects, and may serve the basis for more reliable and accurate neural prosthesis.
Short-range solar radiation forecasts over Sweden
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Landelius, Tomas; Lindskog, Magnus; Körnich, Heiner; Andersson, Sandra
2018-04-01
In this article the performance for short-range solar radiation forecasts by the global deterministic and ensemble models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is compared with an ensemble of the regional mesoscale model HARMONIE-AROME used by the national meteorological services in Sweden, Norway and Finland. Note however that only the control members and the ensemble means are included in the comparison. The models resolution differs considerably with 18 km for the ECMWF ensemble, 9 km for the ECMWF deterministic model, and 2.5 km for the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble. The models share the same radiation code. It turns out that they all underestimate systematically the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) for clear-sky conditions. Except for this shortcoming, the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble model shows the best agreement with the distribution of observed Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and DNI values. During mid-day the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble mean performs best. The control member of the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble also scores better than the global deterministic ECMWF model. This is an interesting result since mesoscale models have so far not shown good results when compared to the ECMWF models. Three days with clear, mixed and cloudy skies are used to illustrate the possible added value of a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that in these cases the mesoscale ensemble could provide decision support to a grid operator in terms of forecasts of both the amount of solar power and its probabilities.
Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart
2017-04-01
Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given the applied model chain and forcing scenario. However, the analysis also shows how limited the information in single ensemble members is on the local scale forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming when the forced response has emerged from natural variability. Analysis and application of multi-model ensembles like EURO-CORDEX should go hand-in-hand with single model ensembles, like the one presented here, to be able to correctly interpret the fine-scale information in terms of a forced signal and random noise due to natural variability.
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto; Angélil, Oliver; Lehmann, Karsten; Sanderson, Benjamin M.
2018-02-01
End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Warner, Thomas T.; Sheu, Rong-Shyang; Bowers, James F.; Sykes, R. Ian; Dodd, Gregory C.; Henn, Douglas S.
2002-05-01
Ensemble simulations made using a coupled atmospheric dynamic model and a probabilistic Lagrangian puff dispersion model were employed in a forensic analysis of the transport and dispersion of a toxic gas that may have been released near Al Muthanna, Iraq, during the Gulf War. The ensemble study had two objectives, the first of which was to determine the sensitivity of the calculated dosage fields to the choices that must be made about the configuration of the atmospheric dynamic model. In this test, various choices were used for model physics representations and for the large-scale analyses that were used to construct the model initial and boundary conditions. The second study objective was to examine the dispersion model's ability to use ensemble inputs to predict dosage probability distributions. Here, the dispersion model was used with the ensemble mean fields from the individual atmospheric dynamic model runs, including the variability in the individual wind fields, to generate dosage probabilities. These are compared with the explicit dosage probabilities derived from the individual runs of the coupled modeling system. The results demonstrate that the specific choices made about the dynamic-model configuration and the large-scale analyses can have a large impact on the simulated dosages. For example, the area near the source that is exposed to a selected dosage threshold varies by up to a factor of 4 among members of the ensemble. The agreement between the explicit and ensemble dosage probabilities is relatively good for both low and high dosage levels. Although only one ensemble was considered in this study, the encouraging results suggest that a probabilistic dispersion model may be of value in quantifying the effects of uncertainties in a dynamic-model ensemble on dispersion model predictions of atmospheric transport and dispersion.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
To improve climate change impact estimates, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. MMEs enable quantifying model uncertainty, and their medians are more accurate than that of any single model when compared with observations. However, multi-model ensembles are costly to execute, so model i...
Zhang, Li; Ai, Haixin; Chen, Wen; Yin, Zimo; Hu, Huan; Zhu, Junfeng; Zhao, Jian; Zhao, Qi; Liu, Hongsheng
2017-05-18
Carcinogenicity refers to a highly toxic end point of certain chemicals, and has become an important issue in the drug development process. In this study, three novel ensemble classification models, namely Ensemble SVM, Ensemble RF, and Ensemble XGBoost, were developed to predict carcinogenicity of chemicals using seven types of molecular fingerprints and three machine learning methods based on a dataset containing 1003 diverse compounds with rat carcinogenicity. Among these three models, Ensemble XGBoost is found to be the best, giving an average accuracy of 70.1 ± 2.9%, sensitivity of 67.0 ± 5.0%, and specificity of 73.1 ± 4.4% in five-fold cross-validation and an accuracy of 70.0%, sensitivity of 65.2%, and specificity of 76.5% in external validation. In comparison with some recent methods, the ensemble models outperform some machine learning-based approaches and yield equal accuracy and higher specificity but lower sensitivity than rule-based expert systems. It is also found that the ensemble models could be further improved if more data were available. As an application, the ensemble models are employed to discover potential carcinogens in the DrugBank database. The results indicate that the proposed models are helpful in predicting the carcinogenicity of chemicals. A web server called CarcinoPred-EL has been built for these models ( http://ccsipb.lnu.edu.cn/toxicity/CarcinoPred-EL/ ).
Sornambikai, Sundaram; Kumar, Annamalai Senthil
2014-09-01
Ciprofloxacin (Cf) is a synthetic fourth generation fluoroquinolone class antibiotic used for the treatment of gram-positive, gram-negative and mycobacterium species infections. Electrochemical characteristic of the Cf antibiotic on carbon nanotube modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE/CNT) in pH 7 phosphate buffer solution has been investigated. Electrochemically oxidized radical byproduct of the Cf drug, which is formed as intermediate, gets immobilized on the GCE/CNT (GCE/Cf@CNT) and showed stable and well defined surface confined redox peak at -0.220 V versus Ag/AgCl. Control electrochemical experiment with unmodified GCE failed to show any such immobilization and redox features. Physicochemical characterizations of the Cf@CNT by transmission electron microscope, scanning electron microscope, infrared spectroscopy, UV-Vis and gas chromatography coupled mass spectroscopic analyses of Cf@CNT collectively revealed presence of native form of the Cf antibiotic molecule onto the CNT. The interaction between the Cf molecule and the CNT tubes are revealed from the decreased intensity in the Raman spectrum. The GCE/Cf@CNT showed excellent electrocatalytic response to hydrogen peroxide reduction reaction in pH 7 phosphate buffer solution. Amperometric i-t analysis for the detection of H2O2 showed a current linearity plot upto [H2O2] = 200 μM at an applied potential - 0.1 V versus Ag/AgCl with a current sensitivity value 678 μA mM(-1) cm(-2). No interferences were noticed with ascorbic acid, uric acid, cysteine and nitrite. The present study can be highly helpful to understand the interaction between the Cf and H2O2 in physiological systems and for the removal of Cf from the antibiotic polluted water samples especially in the aquaculture and agricultural systems.
A reduced graphene oxide based electrochemical biosensor for tyrosine detection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wei, Junhua; Qiu, Jingjing; Li, Li; Ren, Liqiang; Zhang, Xianwen; Chaudhuri, Jharna; Wang, Shiren
2012-08-01
In this paper, a ‘green’ and safe hydrothermal method has been used to reduce graphene oxide and produce hemin modified graphene nanosheet (HGN) based electrochemical biosensors for the determination of l-tyrosine levels. The as-fabricated HGN biosensors were characterized by UV-visible absorption spectra, fluorescence spectra, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) spectra and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). The experimental results indicated that hemin was successfully immobilized on the reduced graphene oxide nanosheet (rGO) through π-π interaction. TEM images and EDX results further confirmed the attachment of hemin on the rGO nanosheet. Cyclic voltammetry tests were carried out for the bare glass carbon electrode (GCE), the rGO electrode (rGO/GCE), and the hemin-rGO electrode (HGN/GCE). The HGN/GCE based biosensor exhibits a tyrosine detection linear range from 5 × 10-7 M to 2 × 10-5 M with a detection limitation of 7.5 × 10-8 M at a signal-to-noise ratio of 3. The sensitivity of this biosensor is 133 times higher than that of the bare GCE. In comparison with other works, electroactive biosensors are easily fabricated, easily controlled and cost-effective. Moreover, the hemin-rGO based biosensors demonstrate higher stability, a broader detection linear range and better detection sensitivity. Study of the oxidation scheme reveals that the rGO enhances the electron transfer between the electrode and the hemin, and the existence of hemin groups effectively electrocatalyzes the oxidation of tyrosine. This study contributes to a widespread clinical application of nanomaterial based biosensor devices with a broader detection linear range, improved stability, enhanced sensitivity and reduced costs.
Kim, Ji-Eun; Jeon, Seon-Min; Park, Ki Hun; Lee, Woo Song; Jeong, Tae-Sook; McGregor, Robin A; Choi, Myung-Sook
2011-09-21
Natural food supplements with high flavonoid content are often claimed to promote weight-loss and lower plasma cholesterol in animal studies, but human studies have been more equivocal. The aim of this study was firstly to determine the effectiveness of natural food supplements containing Glycine max leaves extract (EGML) or Garcinia cambogia extract (GCE) to promote weight-loss and lower plasma cholesterol. Secondly to examine whether these supplements have any beneficial effect on lipid, adipocytokine or antioxidant profiles. Eighty-six overweight subjects (Male:Female = 46:40, age: 20~50 yr, BMI > 23 < 29) were randomly assigned to three groups and administered tablets containing EGML (2 g/day), GCE (2 g/day) or placebo (starch, 2 g/day) for 10 weeks. At baseline and after 10 weeks, body composition, plasma cholesterol and diet were assessed. Blood analysis was also conducted to examine plasma lipoproteins, triglycerides, adipocytokines and antioxidants. EGML and GCE supplementation failed to promote weight-loss or any clinically significant change in %body fat. The EGML group had lower total cholesterol after 10 weeks compared to the placebo group (p < 0.05). EGML and GCE had no effect on triglycerides, non-HDL-C, adipocytokines or antioxidants when compared to placebo supplementation. However, HDL-C was higher in the EGML group (p < 0.001) after 10 weeks compared to the placebo group. Ten weeks of EGML or GCE supplementation did not promote weight-loss or lower total cholesterol in overweight individuals consuming their habitual diet. Although, EGML did increase plasma HDL-C levels which is associated with a lower risk of atherosclerosis.
A reduced graphene oxide based electrochemical biosensor for tyrosine detection.
Wei, Junhua; Qiu, Jingjing; Li, Li; Ren, Liqiang; Zhang, Xianwen; Chaudhuri, Jharna; Wang, Shiren
2012-08-24
In this paper, a 'green' and safe hydrothermal method has been used to reduce graphene oxide and produce hemin modified graphene nanosheet (HGN) based electrochemical biosensors for the determination of l-tyrosine levels. The as-fabricated HGN biosensors were characterized by UV-visible absorption spectra, fluorescence spectra, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) spectra and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). The experimental results indicated that hemin was successfully immobilized on the reduced graphene oxide nanosheet (rGO) through π-π interaction. TEM images and EDX results further confirmed the attachment of hemin on the rGO nanosheet. Cyclic voltammetry tests were carried out for the bare glass carbon electrode (GCE), the rGO electrode (rGO/GCE), and the hemin-rGO electrode (HGN/GCE). The HGN/GCE based biosensor exhibits a tyrosine detection linear range from 5 × 10(-7) M to 2 × 10(-5) M with a detection limitation of 7.5 × 10(-8) M at a signal-to-noise ratio of 3. The sensitivity of this biosensor is 133 times higher than that of the bare GCE. In comparison with other works, electroactive biosensors are easily fabricated, easily controlled and cost-effective. Moreover, the hemin-rGO based biosensors demonstrate higher stability, a broader detection linear range and better detection sensitivity. Study of the oxidation scheme reveals that the rGO enhances the electron transfer between the electrode and the hemin, and the existence of hemin groups effectively electrocatalyzes the oxidation of tyrosine. This study contributes to a widespread clinical application of nanomaterial based biosensor devices with a broader detection linear range, improved stability, enhanced sensitivity and reduced costs.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jeena, S. E.; Gnanaprakasam, P.; Selvaraju, T.
2017-01-01
A simple and an efficient tool for the direct growth of bimetallic Ag@Pt nanorods (NRDs) on electrochemically reduced graphene oxide (ERGO) nanosheets was developed at glassy carbon electrode (GCE). Initially, Cu shell was grown on Ag core as Ag@Cu NRD by the seed-mediated growth method. Accordingly, Cu shell has been successfully replaced by Pt using the electroless galvanic replacement method with ease by effective functionalization of L-tryptophan on ERGO surface (L-ERGO), which eventually plays an important role in the direct growth of one-dimensional bimetallic NRDs. As a result, the synthesized Ag@Pt NRD-supported L-ERGO nanosheets (Ag@Pt NRDs/L-ERGO/GCE) were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), energy-dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX) and Raman spectroscopy. Anodic stripping voltammetry was used to explore its electrochemical properties. Finally, the developed bimetallic Ag@Pt NRDs/L-ERGO/GCEs were studied as a better electrocatalyst compared to the commercial catalysts such as Pt40/C or Pt20/C-loaded electrode for the oxidation of ethanol or methanol with a high tolerance level and an enhanced current density. In addition, the long-term stability was studied using chronoamperometry for 1000 s at the bimetallic NRD electrode for alcohol oxidation which impedes the fouling properties. The unfavourable and favourable electrooxidation of ethanol at Ag@Cu NRDs/L-ERGO/GCE (a) and Ag@Pt NRDs/L-ERGO/GCE (b) is discussed. The synergistic effect of Ag core and catalytic properties of Pt shell at Ag@Pt NRDs/L-ERGO/GCE tend to strongly minimize the CO poisoning effect and enhanced ethanol electrooxidation.
2011-01-01
Background Natural food supplements with high flavonoid content are often claimed to promote weight-loss and lower plasma cholesterol in animal studies, but human studies have been more equivocal. The aim of this study was firstly to determine the effectiveness of natural food supplements containing Glycine max leaves extract (EGML) or Garcinia cambogia extract (GCE) to promote weight-loss and lower plasma cholesterol. Secondly to examine whether these supplements have any beneficial effect on lipid, adipocytokine or antioxidant profiles. Methods Eighty-six overweight subjects (Male:Female = 46:40, age: 20~50 yr, BMI > 23 < 29) were randomly assigned to three groups and administered tablets containing EGML (2 g/day), GCE (2 g/day) or placebo (starch, 2 g/day) for 10 weeks. At baseline and after 10 weeks, body composition, plasma cholesterol and diet were assessed. Blood analysis was also conducted to examine plasma lipoproteins, triglycerides, adipocytokines and antioxidants. Results EGML and GCE supplementation failed to promote weight-loss or any clinically significant change in %body fat. The EGML group had lower total cholesterol after 10 weeks compared to the placebo group (p < 0.05). EGML and GCE had no effect on triglycerides, non-HDL-C, adipocytokines or antioxidants when compared to placebo supplementation. However, HDL-C was higher in the EGML group (p < 0.001) after 10 weeks compared to the placebo group. Conclusions Ten weeks of EGML or GCE supplementation did not promote weight-loss or lower total cholesterol in overweight individuals consuming their habitual diet. Although, EGML did increase plasma HDL-C levels which is associated with a lower risk of atherosclerosis. PMID:21936892
Bassen, David M; Vilkhovoy, Michael; Minot, Mason; Butcher, Jonathan T; Varner, Jeffrey D
2017-01-25
Ensemble modeling is a promising approach for obtaining robust predictions and coarse grained population behavior in deterministic mathematical models. Ensemble approaches address model uncertainty by using parameter or model families instead of single best-fit parameters or fixed model structures. Parameter ensembles can be selected based upon simulation error, along with other criteria such as diversity or steady-state performance. Simulations using parameter ensembles can estimate confidence intervals on model variables, and robustly constrain model predictions, despite having many poorly constrained parameters. In this software note, we present a multiobjective based technique to estimate parameter or models ensembles, the Pareto Optimal Ensemble Technique in the Julia programming language (JuPOETs). JuPOETs integrates simulated annealing with Pareto optimality to estimate ensembles on or near the optimal tradeoff surface between competing training objectives. We demonstrate JuPOETs on a suite of multiobjective problems, including test functions with parameter bounds and system constraints as well as for the identification of a proof-of-concept biochemical model with four conflicting training objectives. JuPOETs identified optimal or near optimal solutions approximately six-fold faster than a corresponding implementation in Octave for the suite of test functions. For the proof-of-concept biochemical model, JuPOETs produced an ensemble of parameters that gave both the mean of the training data for conflicting data sets, while simultaneously estimating parameter sets that performed well on each of the individual objective functions. JuPOETs is a promising approach for the estimation of parameter and model ensembles using multiobjective optimization. JuPOETs can be adapted to solve many problem types, including mixed binary and continuous variable types, bilevel optimization problems and constrained problems without altering the base algorithm. JuPOETs is open source, available under an MIT license, and can be installed using the Julia package manager from the JuPOETs GitHub repository.
Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.
Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less
A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lafaysse, Matthieu; Cluzet, Bertrand; Dumont, Marie; Lejeune, Yves; Vionnet, Vincent; Morin, Samuel
2017-05-01
Physically based multilayer snowpack models suffer from various modelling errors. To represent these errors, we built the new multiphysical ensemble system ESCROC (Ensemble System Crocus) by implementing new representations of different physical processes in the deterministic coupled multilayer ground/snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA/Crocus. This ensemble was driven and evaluated at Col de Porte (1325 m a.s.l., French alps) over 18 years with a high-quality meteorological and snow data set. A total number of 7776 simulations were evaluated separately, accounting for the uncertainties of evaluation data. The ability of the ensemble to capture the uncertainty associated to modelling errors is assessed for snow depth, snow water equivalent, bulk density, albedo and surface temperature. Different sub-ensembles of the ESCROC system were studied with probabilistic tools to compare their performance. Results show that optimal members of the ESCROC system are able to explain more than half of the total simulation errors. Integrating members with biases exceeding the range corresponding to observational uncertainty is necessary to obtain an optimal dispersion, but this issue can also be a consequence of the fact that meteorological forcing uncertainties were not accounted for. The ESCROC system promises the integration of numerical snow-modelling errors in ensemble forecasting and ensemble assimilation systems in support of avalanche hazard forecasting and other snowpack-modelling applications.
The Fukushima-137Cs deposition case study: properties of the multi-model ensemble.
Solazzo, E; Galmarini, S
2015-01-01
In this paper we analyse the properties of an eighteen-member ensemble generated by the combination of five atmospheric dispersion modelling systems and six meteorological data sets. The models have been applied to the total deposition of (137)Cs, following the nuclear accident of the Fukushima power plant in March 2011. Analysis is carried out with the scope of determining whether the ensemble is reliable, sufficiently diverse and if its accuracy and precision can be improved. Although ensemble practice is becoming more and more popular in many geophysical applications, good practice guidelines are missing as to how models should be combined for the ensembles to offer an improvement over single model realisations. We show that the ensemble of models share large portions of bias and variance and make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble mean with the advantage of being poorly correlated, allowing to save computational resources and reduce noise (and thus improving accuracy). We further propose and discuss two methods for selecting subsets of skilful and diverse members, and prove that, in the contingency of the present analysis, their mean outscores the full ensemble mean in terms of both accuracy (error) and precision (variance). Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Davies, L.; Jakob, C.; Cheung, K.; DelGenio, A.; Hill, A.; Hume, T.; Keane, R. J.; Komori, T.; Larson, V. E.; Lin, Y.;
2013-01-01
Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.
Mixture models for protein structure ensembles.
Hirsch, Michael; Habeck, Michael
2008-10-01
Protein structure ensembles provide important insight into the dynamics and function of a protein and contain information that is not captured with a single static structure. However, it is not clear a priori to what extent the variability within an ensemble is caused by internal structural changes. Additional variability results from overall translations and rotations of the molecule. And most experimental data do not provide information to relate the structures to a common reference frame. To report meaningful values of intrinsic dynamics, structural precision, conformational entropy, etc., it is therefore important to disentangle local from global conformational heterogeneity. We consider the task of disentangling local from global heterogeneity as an inference problem. We use probabilistic methods to infer from the protein ensemble missing information on reference frames and stable conformational sub-states. To this end, we model a protein ensemble as a mixture of Gaussian probability distributions of either entire conformations or structural segments. We learn these models from a protein ensemble using the expectation-maximization algorithm. Our first model can be used to find multiple conformers in a structure ensemble. The second model partitions the protein chain into locally stable structural segments or core elements and less structured regions typically found in loops. Both models are simple to implement and contain only a single free parameter: the number of conformers or structural segments. Our models can be used to analyse experimental ensembles, molecular dynamics trajectories and conformational change in proteins. The Python source code for protein ensemble analysis is available from the authors upon request.
Synthesis & characterization of Bi7.38Ce0.62O12.3 and its optical and electrocatalytic property
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Padmanaban, A.; Dhanasekaran, T.; Kumar, S. Praveen; Gnanamoorthy, G.; Stephen, A.; Narayanan, V.
2017-05-01
Bismuth cerium oxide was synthesized by thermal decomposition method. The material was characterized by X-ray diffraction technique, DRS UV-Vis, Raman spectral methods and FE-SEM. The electrocatalytic sensing activity of bismuth cerium oxide modified GCE toward 4-nitrophenol exhibits better activity than the bare GCE. The modified electrode shows higher anodic current response with lower potential.
Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi
2018-05-01
Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.
Biosensor based on glucose oxidase-nanoporous gold co-catalysis for glucose detection.
Wu, Chao; Sun, Huihui; Li, Yufei; Liu, Xueying; Du, Xiaoyu; Wang, Xia; Xu, Ping
2015-04-15
Promoting the electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose is crucial in glucose biosensor design. In this study, nanoporous gold (NPG) was selected for glucose oxidase (GOx) immobilization and glucose biosensor fabrication because of its open, highly conductive, biocompatible, and interconnected porous structure, which also facilitates the electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose. The electrochemical reaction on the surface of the resulting GOx/NPG/GCE bioelectrode was attributed to the co-catalysis effect of GOx and NPG. A surface-confined reaction in a phosphate buffer solution was observed at the bioelectrode during cyclic voltammetry experiments. Linear responses were observed for large glucose concentrations ranging from 50μM to 10mM, with a high sensitivity of 12.1μAmM(-1)cm(-2) and a low detection limit of 1.02μM. Furthermore, the GOx/NPG/GCE bioelectrode presented strong anti-interference capability against cholesterol, urea, tributyrin, ascorbic acid, and uric acid, along with a long shelf-life. For the detection of glucose in human serum, the data generated by the GOx/NPG/GCE bioelectrode were in good agreement with those produced by an automatic biochemical analyzer. These unique properties make the GOx/NPG/GCE bioelectrode an excellent choice for the construction of a glucose biosensor. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Liu, Aihua; Lang, Qiaolin; Liang, Bo; Shi, Jianguo
2017-01-15
Glucoamylase-displayed bacteria (GA-bacteria) and glucose dehydrogenase-displayed bacteria (GDH-bacteria) were co-immobilized on multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) to construct GA-bacteria/GDH-bacteria/MWNTs/GCE biosensor. The biosensor was developed by optimizing the loading amount and the ratio of GA-bacteria to GDH-bacteria. The as-prepared biosensor exhibited a wide dynamic range of 0.2-10mM and a low detection limit of 0.1mM maltose (S/N=3). The biosensor also had a linear response to glucose in the range of 0.1-2.0mM and a low detection limit of 0.04mM glucose (S/N=3). Interestingly, at the same concentration, glucose was 3.75-fold sensitive than that of maltose at the proposed biosensor. No interferences were observed for other possible mono- and disaccharides. The biosensor also demonstrated good long-term storage stability and repeatability. Further, using both GDH-bacteria/MWNTs/GCE biosensor and GA-bacteria/GDH-bacteria/MWNTs/GCE biosensor, glucose and maltose in real samples can be detected. Therefore, the proposed biosensor is capable of monitoring the food manufacturing and fermentation process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Mao, Hui; Liang, Jiachen; Ji, Chunguang; Zhang, Haifeng; Pei, Qi; Zhang, Yuyang; Zhang, Yu; Hisaeda, Yoshio; Song, Xi-Ming
2016-08-01
Poly(3-(1-vinylimidazolium-3-yl)propane-1-sulfonate) (PVIPS), a novel kind of poly(zwitterionic liquids) (PZILs) containing both imidazolium cation and sulfonate anion, was successfully modified on the surface of polypyrrole/graphene oxide nanosheets (PPy/GO) by covalent bonding. The obtained novel PZILs functionalized PPy/GO nanosheets (PVIPS/PPy/GO) modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) presented the excellent electrochemical catalytic activity towards dopamine (DA) with high stability, sensitivity, selectivity and wide linear range (40-1220nM), especially having a lower detection limit (17.3nM). The excellent analytical performance is attributed to the strongly negative charges on the surface of modified GCE in aqueous solution, which is different from conventional poly(ionic liquids) modified GCE. DA cations could be quickly enriched on the electrode surface by electrostatic interaction in solution due to the existence of SO3(-) groups with negative charge at the end of pendant groups in zwitterionic PVIPS, resulting in a change of the electrons transmission mode in the oxidation of DA, that is, from a typical diffusion-controlled process at conventional poly(1-vinyl-3-ethylimidazole bromide) (PVEIB)/PPy/GO modified GCE to a typical surface-controlled process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Overview of the 1988 GCE/CASE/WATOX Studies of biogeochemical cycles in the North Atlantic region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pszenny, Alexander A. P.; Galloway, James N.; Artz, Richard S.; Boatman, Joseph F.
1990-06-01
The 1988 Global Change Expedition/Coordinated Air-Sea Experiment/Western Atlantic Ocean Experiment (GCE/CASE/WATOX) was a multifaceted research program designed to study atmospheric and oceanic processes affecting the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and trace metals in the North Atlantic Ocean region. Field work included (1) a 49-day research cruise aboard NOAA ship Mt. Mitchell (Global Change Expedition) from Norfolk, Virginia, to Bermuda, Iceland, the Azores, and Barbados, (2) eight flights of the NOAA King Air research aircraft, four off the Virginia Capes and four near Bermuda (CASE/WATOX), and (3) a research cruise aboard the yacht Fleurtie near Bermuda (WATOX). Objectives of GCE/CASE/WATOX were (1) to examine processes controlling the mesoscale distributions of productivity, chlorophyll, and phytoplankton growth rates in Atlantic surface waters, (2) to identify factors controlling the distribution of ozone in the North Atlantic marine boundary layer, and (3) to estimate the contributions of sources on surrounding continents to the biogeochemical cycles of sulfur, nitrogen, and trace metals over the North Atlantic region during the boreal summer season. The individual papers in this and the next two issues of Global Biogeochemical Cycles provide details on the results and analyses of the individual measurement efforts. This paper provides a brief overview of GCE/CASE/WATOX.
Kariuki, James; Ervin, Emily; Olafson, Carly
2015-07-31
The development of portable sensors that can be used outside the lab is an active area of research in the electroanalytical field. A major focus of such research is the development of low-cost electrodes for use in these sensors. Current electrodes, such as glassy-carbon electrodes (GCEs), are costly and require time-consuming preparation. Alternatives have been proposed, including mechanical pencil-lead electrodes (MPEs). However, MPEs themselves possess numerous drawbacks, particularly structural fragility. In this paper, we present a novel pencil-graphite electrode (PGE) fabricated from a regular HB#2 pencil. This PGE is a simple, disposable, extremely low-cost alternative to GCEs ($0.30 per PGE, vs. $190 + per GCE), and possesses the structural stability that MPEs lack. PGEs were characterized by square-wave voltammetry of ferricyanide, gallic acid, uric acid, dopamine, and several foodstuffs. In all cases, PGEs demonstrated sensitivities comparable or superior to those of the GCE and MPE (LOD = 5.62 × 10(-4) M PGE, 4.80 × 10(-4) M GCE, 2.93 × 10(-4) M MPE). Signal areas and peak heights were typically four to ten times larger for the PGE relative to the GCE.
Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, H.
2017-12-01
Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic ensemble mean and may provide reliable future projections.
Benefits of an ultra large and multiresolution ensemble for estimating available wind power
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berndt, Jonas; Hoppe, Charlotte; Elbern, Hendrik
2016-04-01
In this study we investigate the benefits of an ultra large ensemble with up to 1000 members including multiple nesting with a target horizontal resolution of 1 km. The ensemble shall be used as a basis to detect events of extreme errors in wind power forecasting. Forecast value is the wind vector at wind turbine hub height (~ 100 m) in the short range (1 to 24 hour). Current wind power forecast systems rest already on NWP ensemble models. However, only calibrated ensembles from meteorological institutions serve as input so far, with limited spatial resolution (˜10 - 80 km) and member number (˜ 50). Perturbations related to the specific merits of wind power production are yet missing. Thus, single extreme error events which are not detected by such ensemble power forecasts occur infrequently. The numerical forecast model used in this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Model uncertainties are represented by stochastic parametrization of sub-grid processes via stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies and in conjunction via the complementary stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme already provided by WRF. We perform continuous ensemble updates by comparing each ensemble member with available observations using a sequential importance resampling filter to improve the model accuracy while maintaining ensemble spread. Additionally, we use different ensemble systems from global models (ECMWF and GFS) as input and boundary conditions to capture different synoptic conditions. Critical weather situations which are connected to extreme error events are located and corresponding perturbation techniques are applied. The demanding computational effort is overcome by utilising the supercomputer JUQUEEN at the Forschungszentrum Juelich.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vervatis, Vassilios; De Mey, Pierre; Ayoub, Nadia; Kailas, Marios; Sofianos, Sarantis
2017-04-01
The project entitled Stochastic Coastal/Regional Uncertainty Modelling (SCRUM) aims at strengthening CMEMS in the areas of ocean uncertainty quantification, ensemble consistency verification and ensemble data assimilation. The project has been initiated by the University of Athens and LEGOS/CNRS research teams, in the framework of CMEMS Service Evolution. The work is based on stochastic modelling of ocean physics and biogeochemistry in the Bay of Biscay, on an identical sub-grid configuration of the IBI-MFC system in its latest CMEMS operational version V2. In a first step, we use a perturbed tendencies scheme to generate ensembles describing uncertainties in open ocean and on the shelf, focusing on upper ocean processes. In a second step, we introduce two methodologies (i.e. rank histograms and array modes) aimed at checking the consistency of the above ensembles with respect to TAC data and arrays. Preliminary results highlight that wind uncertainties dominate all other atmosphere-ocean sources of model errors. The ensemble spread in medium-range ensembles is approximately 0.01 m for SSH and 0.15 °C for SST, though these values vary depending on season and cross shelf regions. Ecosystem model uncertainties emerging from perturbations in physics appear to be moderately larger than those perturbing the concentration of the biogeochemical compartments, resulting in total chlorophyll spread at about 0.01 mg.m-3. First consistency results show that the model ensemble and the pseudo-ensemble of OSTIA (L4) observation SSTs appear to exhibit nonzero joint probabilities with each other since error vicinities overlap. Rank histograms show that the model ensemble is initially under-dispersive, though results improve in the context of seasonal-range ensembles.
Real-Time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the Wsa-Enlil+Cone Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; LaSota, J. A.
2014-12-01
Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions. Real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL+cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). To estimate the effect of uncertainties in determining CME input parameters on arrival time predictions, a distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameter sets are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest, including a probability distribution of CME arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 38 CME events in 2013-2014. For 28 of the ensemble runs containing hits, the observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 14 runs (half). The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the 28 ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time, an average absolute error of 10.0 hours (RMSE=11.4 hours) was found for all 28 ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling sysem was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME. The parameter sensitivity study suggests future directions for the system, such as running ensembles using various magnetogram inputs to the WSA model.
Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo
2016-03-01
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernández, J.; Frías, M. D.; Cabos, W. D.; Cofiño, A. S.; Domínguez, M.; Fita, L.; Gaertner, M. A.; García-Díez, M.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Liguori, G.; Montávez, J. P.; Romera, R.; Sánchez, E.
2018-03-01
We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes.
Simulation's Ensemble is Better Than Ensemble Simulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, X.
2017-12-01
Simulation's ensemble is better than ensemble simulation Yan Xiaodong State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE) Beijing Normal University,19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian District, Beijing 100875, China Email: yxd@bnu.edu.cnDynamical system is simulated from initial state. However initial state data is of great uncertainty, which leads to uncertainty of simulation. Therefore, multiple possible initial states based simulation has been used widely in atmospheric science, which has indeed been proved to be able to lower the uncertainty, that was named simulation's ensemble because multiple simulation results would be fused . In ecological field, individual based model simulation (forest gap models for example) can be regarded as simulation's ensemble compared with community based simulation (most ecosystem models). In this talk, we will address the advantage of individual based simulation and even their ensembles.
A Single Column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Davies, Laura; Jakob, Christian; Cheung, K.
2013-06-27
Single column models (SCM) are useful testbeds for investigating the parameterisation schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best-estimate large-scale data prescribed. One method to address this uncertainty is to perform ensemble simulations of the SCM. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best-estimate product. This data is then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and 2 cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best-estimatemore » simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best-estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Systematic differences are also apparent in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables. The ensemble is further used to investigate relations between cloud variables and precipitation identifying large differences between CRM and SCM. This study highlights that additional information can be gained by performing ensemble simulations enhancing the information derived from models using the more traditional single best-estimate simulation.« less
The role of ensemble post-processing for modeling the ensemble tail
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane
2016-04-01
The past decades the numerical weather prediction community has witnessed a paradigm shift from deterministic to probabilistic forecast and state estimation (Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015; Buizza et al., 2008), in an attempt to quantify the uncertainties associated with initial-condition and model errors. An important benefit of a probabilistic framework is the improved prediction of extreme events. However, one may ask to what extent such model estimates contain information on the occurrence probability of extreme events and how this information can be optimally extracted. Different approaches have been proposed and applied on real-world systems which, based on extreme value theory, allow the estimation of extreme-event probabilities conditional on forecasts and state estimates (Ferro, 2007; Friederichs, 2010). Using ensemble predictions generated with a model of low dimensionality, a thorough investigation is presented quantifying the change of predictability of extreme events associated with ensemble post-processing and other influencing factors including the finite ensemble size, lead time and model assumption and the use of different covariates (ensemble mean, maximum, spread...) for modeling the tail distribution. Tail modeling is performed by deriving extreme-quantile estimates using peak-over-threshold representation (generalized Pareto distribution) or quantile regression. Common ensemble post-processing methods aim to improve mostly the ensemble mean and spread of a raw forecast (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015). Conditional tail modeling, on the other hand, is a post-processing in itself, focusing on the tails only. Therefore, it is unclear how applying ensemble post-processing prior to conditional tail modeling impacts the skill of extreme-event predictions. This work is investigating this question in details. Buizza, Leutbecher, and Isaksen, 2008: Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 2051-2066.Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015: The forecast skill horizon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141: 3366-3382.Ferro, 2007: A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events. Weather and Forecasting 22 (5), 1089-1100.Friederichs, 2010: Statistical downscaling of extreme precipitation events using extreme value theory. Extremes 13, 109-132.Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141: 807-818.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W.; Li, H.; Li, W.; Chen, F.; Wang, L.
2017-12-01
Data assimilation techniques are widely used in hydrology to improve the reliability of hydrological models and to reduce model predictive uncertainties. This provides critical information for decision makers in water resources management. This study aims to evaluate a data assimilation system for the Guantao groundwater flow model coupled with a one-dimensional soil column simulation (Hydrus 1D) using an Unbiased Ensemble Square Root Filter (UnEnSRF) originating from the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to update parameters and states, separately or simultaneously. To simplify the coupling between unsaturated and saturated zone, a linear relationship obtained from analyzing inputs to and outputs from Hydrus 1D is applied in the data assimilation process. Unlike EnKF, the UnEnSRF updates parameter ensemble mean and ensemble perturbations separately. In order to keep the ensemble filter working well during the data assimilation, two factors are introduced in the study. One is called damping factor to dampen the update amplitude of the posterior ensemble mean to avoid nonrealistic values. The other is called inflation factor to relax the posterior ensemble perturbations close to prior to avoid filter inbreeding problems. The sensitivities of the two factors are studied and their favorable values for the Guantao model are determined. The appropriate observation error and ensemble size were also determined to facilitate the further analysis. This study demonstrated that the data assimilation of both model parameters and states gives a smaller model prediction error but with larger uncertainty while the data assimilation of only model states provides a smaller predictive uncertainty but with a larger model prediction error. Data assimilation in a groundwater flow model will improve model prediction and at the same time make the model converge to the true parameters, which provides a successful base for applications in real time modelling or real time controlling strategies in groundwater resources management.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen; Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Minghua; Simpson, Joanne
2008-01-01
Month-long large-scale forcing data from two field campaigns are used to drive a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and produce ensemble simulations of clouds and precipitation. Observational data are then used to evaluate the model results. To improve the model results, a new parameterization of the Bergeron process is proposed that incorporates the number concentration of ice nuclei (IN). Numerical simulations reveal that atmospheric ensembles are sensitive to IN concentration and ice crystal multiplication. Two- (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) simulations are carried out to address the sensitivity of atmospheric ensembles to model dimensionality. It is found that the ensembles with high IN concentration are more sensitive to dimensionality than those with low IN concentration. Both the analytic solutions of linear dry models and the CRM output show that there are more convective cores with stronger updrafts in 3D simulations than in 2D, which explains the differing sensitivity of the ensembles to dimensionality at different IN concentrations.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Behlol, Malik Ghulam; Anwar, Mohammad
2011-01-01
The study was conducted to compare the teaching methods and evaluation practices in English subject at secondary school certificate (SSC) and general certificate of education GCE-O-level in Pakistan. The population of the study was students, teachers and experts at SSC and 0-level in the Punjab province. Purposive and random sampling techniques…
Development of a Novel Electrochemical Sensor for Determination of Matrine in Sophora flavescens.
Zhang, Junping; Wang, Yanchun; Zheng, Wei
2017-04-01
A simple and sensitive electrochemical sensor fabricated with graphene nanosheets (GNs) and a hydroxyapatite (HA) nanocomposite-modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was developed for the determination of matrine (MT). The as-prepared electrode (GNs/HA/GCE) was verified to outperform bare a GCE and GNs-modified electrode with increased oxidation peak currents and the decreased over-potential in the redox process of MT, indicating the great enhancement of electrocatalytic activity toward the oxidation of MT by the composite of GNs and HA. Under the optimized conditions, the oxidation peak currents were related linearly with the concentration of MT, ranging from 2 μM to 3 mM, and the detection limit (S/N = 3) was 1.2 μM. In addition, the proposed electrochemical sensor can be successfully applied in the quantitative determination of MT in Sophora flavescens extract.
Khodadadian, Mehdi; Jalili, Ronak; Bahrami, Mohammad Taher; Bahrami, Gholamreza
2017-01-01
An electroanalytical method has been introduced for highly sensitive determination of hydralazine hydrochloride (Hy-HCl) based on its oxidation at a glassy carbon electrode modified with multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT/GCE). Studies showed that the electrochemical oxidation of Hy-HCl was accompanied by adsorption and highly sensitive responses could be achieved by adsorptive stripping voltammetry. The electrooxidation of Hy-HCl at MWCNT/GCE occurred at ~32 mV which was lower than that observed at bare GCE (~52 mV). The optimum working conditions for determination of the drug using differential-pulse adsorptive stripping voltammetry (DPAdSV) were established. The method exhibited linear responses to Hy-HCl in the concentration range 10-220 nM with a detection limit of 2.7 nM. The proposed method was successfully applied to the determination of this compound in pharmaceutical dosage forms. PMID:29552043
Pan, Hong-zhi; Yu, Hong- Wei; Wang, Na; Zhang, Ze; Wan, Guang-Cai; Liu, Hao; Guan, Xue; Chang, Dong
2015-01-01
To develop a new electrochemical DNA biosensor for determination of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase, a highly sensitive and selective electrochemical biosensor for DNA detection was constructed based on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with gold nanoparticles (Au-nano). The Au-nano/GCE was characterized by scanning electromicroscopy, cyclic voltammetry, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. The hybridization detection was measured by differential pulse voltammetry using methylene blue as the hybridization indicator. The dynamic range of detection of the sensor for the target DNA sequences was from 1 × 10(-11) to 1 × 10(-8) M, with an LOD of 1 × 10(-12) M. The DNA biosensor had excellent specificity for distinguishing complementary DNA sequence in the presence of non-complementary and mismatched DNA sequence. The Au-nano/GCE showed significant improvement in electrochemical characteristics, and this biosensor was successfully applied for determination of K. pneumoniae.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kiani, Keivan
2014-06-01
Novel nonlocal discrete and continuous models are proposed for dynamic analysis of two- and three-dimensional ensembles of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs). The generated extra van der Waals forces between adjacent SWCNTs due to their lateral motions are evaluated via Lennard-Jones potential function. Using a nonlocal Rayleigh beam model, the discrete and continuous models are developed for both two- and three-dimensional ensembles of SWCNTs acted upon by transverse dynamic loads. The capabilities of the proposed continuous models in capturing the vibration behavior of SWCNTs ensembles are then examined through various numerical simulations. A reasonably good agreement between the results of the continuous models and those of the discrete ones is also reported. The effects of the applied load frequency, intertube spaces, and small-scale parameter on the transverse dynamic responses of both two- and three-dimensional ensembles of SWCNTs are explained. The proposed continuous models would be very useful for dynamic analyses of large populated ensembles of SWCNTs whose discrete models suffer from both computational efforts and labor costs.
Creating "Intelligent" Climate Model Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, N. C.; Taylor, P. C.
2014-12-01
The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.
Ensemble-type numerical uncertainty information from single model integrations
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rauser, Florian, E-mail: florian.rauser@mpimet.mpg.de; Marotzke, Jochem; Korn, Peter
2015-07-01
We suggest an algorithm that quantifies the discretization error of time-dependent physical quantities of interest (goals) for numerical models of geophysical fluid dynamics. The goal discretization error is estimated using a sum of weighted local discretization errors. The key feature of our algorithm is that these local discretization errors are interpreted as realizations of a random process. The random process is determined by the model and the flow state. From a class of local error random processes we select a suitable specific random process by integrating the model over a short time interval at different resolutions. The weights of themore » influences of the local discretization errors on the goal are modeled as goal sensitivities, which are calculated via automatic differentiation. The integration of the weighted realizations of local error random processes yields a posterior ensemble of goal approximations from a single run of the numerical model. From the posterior ensemble we derive the uncertainty information of the goal discretization error. This algorithm bypasses the requirement of detailed knowledge about the models discretization to generate numerical error estimates. The algorithm is evaluated for the spherical shallow-water equations. For two standard test cases we successfully estimate the error of regional potential energy, track its evolution, and compare it to standard ensemble techniques. The posterior ensemble shares linear-error-growth properties with ensembles of multiple model integrations when comparably perturbed. The posterior ensemble numerical error estimates are of comparable size as those of a stochastic physics ensemble.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernández, J.; Primo, C.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Rodríguez, M. A.
2009-08-01
In a recent paper, Gutiérrez et al. (Nonlinear Process Geophys 15(1):109-114, 2008) introduced a new characterization of spatiotemporal error growth—the so called mean-variance logarithmic (MVL) diagram—and applied it to study ensemble prediction systems (EPS); in particular, they analyzed single-model ensembles obtained by perturbing the initial conditions. In the present work, the MVL diagram is applied to multi-model ensembles analyzing also the effect of model formulation differences. To this aim, the MVL diagram is systematically applied to the multi-model ensemble produced in the EU-funded DEMETER project. It is shown that the shared building blocks (atmospheric and ocean components) impose similar dynamics among different models and, thus, contribute to poorly sampling the model formulation uncertainty. This dynamical similarity should be taken into account, at least as a pre-screening process, before applying any objective weighting method.
Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.
2017-06-01
Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.
Bayesian Hierarchical Model Characterization of Model Error in Ocean Data Assimilation and Forecasts
2013-09-30
wind ensemble with the increments in the surface momentum flux control vector in a four-dimensional variational (4dvar) assimilation system. The...stability effects? surface stress Surface Momentum Flux Ensembles from Summaries of BHM Winds (Mediterranean...surface wind speed given ensemble winds from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model to provide surface momentum flux ensembles. 3 Figure 2: Domain of
Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles ...
Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each stati
EMPIRE and pyenda: Two ensemble-based data assimilation systems written in Fortran and Python
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Geppert, Gernot; Browne, Phil; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan; Merker, Claire
2017-04-01
We present and compare the features of two ensemble-based data assimilation frameworks, EMPIRE and pyenda. Both frameworks allow to couple models to the assimilation codes using the Message Passing Interface (MPI), leading to extremely efficient and fast coupling between models and the data-assimilation codes. The Fortran-based system EMPIRE (Employing Message Passing Interface for Researching Ensembles) is optimized for parallel, high-performance computing. It currently includes a suite of data assimilation algorithms including variants of the ensemble Kalman and several the particle filters. EMPIRE is targeted at models of all kinds of complexity and has been coupled to several geoscience models, eg. the Lorenz-63 model, a barotropic vorticity model, the general circulation model HadCM3, the ocean model NEMO, and the land-surface model JULES. The Python-based system pyenda (Python Ensemble Data Assimilation) allows Fortran- and Python-based models to be used for data assimilation. Models can be coupled either using MPI or by using a Python interface. Using Python allows quick prototyping and pyenda is aimed at small to medium scale models. pyenda currently includes variants of the ensemble Kalman filter and has been coupled to the Lorenz-63 model, an advection-based precipitation nowcasting scheme, and the dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH.
Shallow cumuli ensemble statistics for development of a stochastic parameterization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sakradzija, Mirjana; Seifert, Axel; Heus, Thijs
2014-05-01
According to a conventional deterministic approach to the parameterization of moist convection in numerical atmospheric models, a given large scale forcing produces an unique response from the unresolved convective processes. This representation leaves out the small-scale variability of convection, as it is known from the empirical studies of deep and shallow convective cloud ensembles, there is a whole distribution of sub-grid states corresponding to the given large scale forcing. Moreover, this distribution gets broader with the increasing model resolution. This behavior is also consistent with our theoretical understanding of a coarse-grained nonlinear system. We propose an approach to represent the variability of the unresolved shallow-convective states, including the dependence of the sub-grid states distribution spread and shape on the model horizontal resolution. Starting from the Gibbs canonical ensemble theory, Craig and Cohen (2006) developed a theory for the fluctuations in a deep convective ensemble. The micro-states of a deep convective cloud ensemble are characterized by the cloud-base mass flux, which, according to the theory, is exponentially distributed (Boltzmann distribution). Following their work, we study the shallow cumulus ensemble statistics and the distribution of the cloud-base mass flux. We employ a Large-Eddy Simulation model (LES) and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by a conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud base level, to retrieve the information about the individual cloud life cycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole. In the case of shallow cumulus cloud ensemble, the distribution of micro-states is a generalized exponential distribution. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate the shallow convective cloud ensemble and to test the convective ensemble theory. Stochastic model simulates a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a Poisson distribution, and cloud properties sub-sampled from a generalized ensemble distribution. We study the role of the different cloud subtypes in a shallow convective ensemble and how the diverse cloud properties and cloud lifetimes affect the system macro-state. To what extent does the cloud-base mass flux distribution deviate from the simple Boltzmann distribution and how does it affect the results from the stochastic model? Is the memory, provided by the finite lifetime of individual clouds, of importance for the ensemble statistics? We also test for the minimal information given as an input to the stochastic model, able to reproduce the ensemble mean statistics and the variability in a convective ensemble. An important property of the resulting distribution of the sub-grid convective states is its scale-adaptivity - the smaller the grid-size, the broader the compound distribution of the sub-grid states.
Several air quality forecasting ensembles were created from seven models, running in real-time during the 2006 Texas Air Quality (TEXAQS-II) experiment. These multi-model ensembles incorporated a diverse set of meteorological models, chemical mechanisms, and emission inventories...
Sexual dimorphism of sleep regulated by juvenile hormone signaling in Drosophila
Zhang, Enyan; Du, Juan; Liu, Suning; Price, Jeffrey
2018-01-01
Sexually dimorphic phenotypes are a universal phenomenon in animals. In the model animal fruit fly Drosophila, males and females exhibit long- and short-sleep phenotypes, respectively. However, the mechanism is still a mystery. In this study, we showed that juvenile hormone (JH) is involved in regulation of sexually dimorphic sleep in Drosophila, in which gain of JH function enlarges differences of the dimorphic sleep phenotype with higher sleep in males and lower sleep in females, while loss of JH function blurs these differences and results in feminization of male sleep and masculinization of female sleep. Further studies indicate that germ cell-expressed (GCE), one of the JH receptors, mediates the response in the JH pathway because the sexually dimorphic sleep phenotypes cannot be rescued by JH hormone in a gce deletion mutant. The JH-GCE regulated sleep dimorphism is generated through the sex differentiation-related genes -fruitless (fru) and doublesex (dsx) in males and sex-lethal (sxl), transformer (tra) and doublesex (dsx) in females. These are the “switch” genes that separately control the sleep pattern in males and females. Moreover, analysis of sleep deprivation and circadian behaviors showed that the sexually dimorphic sleep induced by JH signals is a change of sleep drive and independent of the circadian clock. Furthermore, we found that JH seems to also play an unanticipated role in antagonism of an aging-induced sleep decrease in male flies. Taken together, these results indicate that the JH signal pathway is critical for maintenance of sexually dimorphic sleep by regulating sex-relevant genes. PMID:29617359
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping
2017-11-01
Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For peak values taking flood forecasts from each individual member into account is more appropriate.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo
2016-08-01
This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.
2006-09-01
logistical resources necessary to sustain its movement toward assigned objectives while being supported by a CSSE in an expanding maneuver warfare...thesis defines a logistics process and develops a simulation where the GCE consumes logistical resources necessary to sustain its movement toward...the MAGTF is responsible for responding to the logistics needs of the MAGTF Ground Combat Element (GCE) in order to sustain its movement. Yet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.
2016-12-01
As part of the NASA-NSF Space Weather Modeling Collaboration, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics system that is based on Data Assimilation (DA) models. MEPS is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models that cover the globe. Ensemble modeling can be conducted for the mid-low latitude ionosphere using the four GAIM data assimilation models, including the Gauss Markov (GM), Full Physics (FP), Band Limited (BL) and 4DVAR DA models. These models can assimilate Total Electron Content (TEC) from a constellation of satellites, bottom-side electron density profiles from digisondes, in situ plasma densities, occultation data and ultraviolet emissions. The four GAIM models were run for the March 16-17, 2013, geomagnetic storm period with the same data, but we also systematically added new data types and re-ran the GAIM models to see how the different data types affected the GAIM results, with the emphasis on elucidating differences in the underlying ionospheric dynamics and thermospheric coupling. Also, for each scenario the outputs from the four GAIM models were used to produce an ensemble mean for TEC, NmF2, and hmF2. A simple average of the models was used in the ensemble averaging to see if there was an improvement of the ensemble average over the individual models. For the scenarios considered, the ensemble average yielded better specifications than the individual GAIM models. The model differences and averages, and the consequent differences in ionosphere-thermosphere coupling and dynamics will be discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, J.; Zhu, L.; Qian, W.; Chen, H.; Feng, C.; Han, S.; Lin, H.; Ye, F. Y.
Glassy carbon electrodes (GCE) were modified by carboxylated graphene oxide/lanthanum with various concentrations of hexadecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (CTAB), and the treated electrodes, called CTAB/GO-COOLa/GCE, were prepared for the detection of uric acid (UA) and dopamine (DA) by using the differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) and the cyclic voltammetry (CV). The results show that the modified electrode’s electrocatalytic activity could be affected by several factors in the examination, they are the pH value of the system, the main content of CTAB, various concentrations and rates of scan. With a combination of carboxylated graphene oxide/lanthanum and CTAB, the resulted CTAB/GO-COOLa/GCE sensors showed preeminent selectivity and obvious catalytic property toward the electro-oxidation of UA and DA. In optimized conditions, the response of the CTAB/GO-COOLa/GCE electrode for DA was linear in the region of 0.03-500.0μM with detection limits of 0.036μM (S/N=3). Two linear response ranges for the determination UA were obtained from ranges of 1 to 200μM and 200 to 1300μM with a detection limit of 0.42μM (S/N=3). Moreover, the refined electrode was used in the inspection of DA and UA in real samples of serum and urine successfully, displaying its potential application of real samples involved in electroanalysis.
An Enzyme-Induced Novel Biosensor for the Sensitive Electrochemical Determination of Isoniazid
Chokkareddy, Rajasekhar; Bhajanthri, Natesh Kumar; Redhi, Gan G.
2017-01-01
In this present work, a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was modified primarily with multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and a composite of MWCNTs and titanium oxide nanoparticles (TiO2NPs). The enzyme horseradish peroxidase (HRP) was immobilized to enhance the sensing ability of GCE. The proposed biosensor was used for the sensitive determination of isoniazid (INZ) in various pharmaceutical samples. The electrochemical behaviour of the developed MWCNT-TiO2NPs-HRP-GCE biosensor was studied by using cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetric (DPV) techniques. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), thermogravimetry (TGA) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques were used to characterize the developed sensor. Phosphate buffer solution (PBS) with pH 7 was used as supporting electrolyte in the present investigation. The cyclic voltammetric results revealed that the increment of anodic peak currents for the enzyme-induced sensor was almost 8-fold greater than that of a bare GCE. The DPV technique exhibited good limit of detection and limit of quantification values, viz., 0.0335 μM and 0.1118 μM, respectively. Moreover, the developed sensor showed long-lasting stability and repeatability without any interferents. This strongly indicates that the fabricated sensor shows outstanding electrochemical performance towards INZ, with excellent selectivity and sensitivity. The developed sensor was successfully applied to pharmaceutical samples and gave good percentages of recoveries. PMID:28587260
Sukanya, Ramaraj; Sakthivel, Mani; Chen, Shen-Ming; Chen, Tse-Wei; Al-Hemaid, Fahad M A; Ajmal Ali, M; Elshikh, Mohamed Soliman
2018-06-02
A new type of manganese diselenide nanoparticles (MnSeNPs) was synthesized by using a hydrothermal method. Their surface morphology, crystallinity and elemental distribution were characterized by using transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy which scrutinize the formation of the NPs. The NPs were coated on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE), and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, cyclic voltammetry and differential pulse voltammetry were applied to study the electroanalytical properties towards the oxidation of the food additive capsaicin. The modified GCE displays lower charge transfer resistance (R ct = 29.52 Ω), a larger active surface area (0.089 cm 2 /g, and more efficient electrochemical oxidation of capsaicin compared to a MnS 2 /GCE and a bare GCE. The oxidation peak potential is 0.43 V (vs. Ag/AgCl) which is lower than that of previously reported GCEs. The sensor has a detection limit as low as 0.05 μM and an electrochemical sensitivity of 2.41 μA μM -1 cm -2 . The method was applied to the determination of capsaicin in pepper samples. Graphical abstract Electrochemical determination of capsaicin in pepper extract by using MnSeNPs modified electrode.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping
2017-04-01
Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wu, Di; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Feng, Zhe; Kennedy, Aaron; Mullendore, Gretchen; Gilmore, Matthew; Tao, Wei-Kuo
2013-01-01
This study investigates the impact of snow, graupel, and hail processes on simulated squall lines over the Southern Great Plains in the United States. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate two squall line events in Oklahoma during May 2007, and the simulations are validated against radar and surface observations. Several microphysics schemes are tested in this study, including the WRF 5-Class Microphysics (WSM5), WRF 6-Class Microphysics (WSM6), Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Three Ice (3-ice) with graupel, Goddard Two Ice (2-ice), and Goddard 3-ice hail schemes. Simulated surface precipitation is sensitive to the microphysics scheme when the graupel or hail categories are included. All of the 3-ice schemes overestimate the total precipitation with WSM6 having the largest bias. The 2-ice schemes, without a graupel/hail category, produce less total precipitation than the 3-ice schemes. By applying a radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm, we find that including graupel/hail processes increases the convective areal coverage, precipitation intensity, updraft, and downdraft intensities, and reduces the stratiform areal coverage and precipitation intensity. For vertical structures, simulations have higher reflectivity values distributed aloft than the observed values in both the convective and stratiform regions. Three-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in convective regions, while 2-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in stratiform regions. In addition, this study has demonstrated that the radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm can reasonably identify WRF-simulated precipitation, wind, and microphysical fields in both convective and stratiform regions.
Ensemble forecasting has been used for operational numerical weather prediction in the United States and Europe since the early 1990s. An ensemble of weather or climate forecasts is used to characterize the two main sources of uncertainty in computer models of physical systems: ...
Real-time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.
2013-12-01
Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions due to uncertainties in determining CME input parameters. Ensemble modeling of CME propagation in the heliosphere is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. A distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameters are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest (satellites or planets), including a probability distribution of CME shock arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). Ensemble simulations have been performed experimentally in real-time at the CCMC since January 2013. We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 15 CME events, 10 of which were performed in real-time. The observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 5 out of the 12 ensemble runs containing hits. The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the twelve ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time an average absolute error of 8.20 hours was found for all twelve ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling setup was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lopez, Ana; Fung, Fai; New, Mark; Watts, Glenn; Weston, Alan; Wilby, Robert L.
2009-08-01
The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Because of the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision making. This paper evaluates the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. We deliberately select water resource models that are already used by water supply companies and regulators on the assumption that uptake of information from large ensembles of climate models will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools and methods. We illustrate the methods with a case study on the Wimbleball water resource zone in the southwest of England. This zone is sufficiently simple to demonstrate the utility of the approach but with enough complexity to allow a variety of different decisions to be made. Our research shows that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, compared to the use of single-model scenarios. Furthermore, with careful presentation, decision makers will find the results from large ensembles of models more accessible and be able to more easily compare the merits of different management options and the timing of different adaptation. The overhead in additional time and expertise for carrying out the impacts analysis will be justified by the increased quality of the decision-making process. We remark that even though we have focused our study on a water resource system in the United Kingdom, our conclusions about the added value of climate model ensembles in guiding adaptation decisions can be generalized to other sectors and geographical regions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Y.; Barth, A.; Beckers, J. M.; Candille, G.; Brankart, J. M.; Brasseur, P.
2015-07-01
Sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and temperature profiles at depth collected between January and December 2005 are assimilated into a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Sixty ensemble members are generated by adding realistic noise to the forcing parameters related to the temperature. The ensemble is diagnosed and validated by comparison between the ensemble spread and the model/observation difference, as well as by rank histogram before the assimilation experiments. An incremental analysis update scheme is applied in order to reduce spurious oscillations due to the model state correction. The results of the assimilation are assessed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics with independent/semiindependent observations. For deterministic validation, the ensemble means, together with the ensemble spreads are compared to the observations, in order to diagnose the ensemble distribution properties in a deterministic way. For probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centered random variable (RCRV) score in order to investigate the reliability properties of the ensemble forecast system. The improvement of the assimilation is demonstrated using these validation metrics. Finally, the deterministic validation and the probabilistic validation are analyzed jointly. The consistency and complementarity between both validations are highlighted.
Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence
Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.
2015-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature. PMID:26261335
Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.
Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T
2015-08-25
The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tito Arandia Martinez, Fabian
2014-05-01
Adequate uncertainty assessment is an important issue in hydrological modelling. An important issue for hydropower producers is to obtain ensemble forecasts which truly grasp the uncertainty linked to upcoming streamflows. If properly assessed, this uncertainty can lead to optimal reservoir management and energy production (ex. [1]). The meteorological inputs to the hydrological model accounts for an important part of the total uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Since the creation of the THORPEX initiative and the TIGGE database, access to meteorological ensemble forecasts from nine agencies throughout the world have been made available. This allows for hydrological ensemble forecasts based on multiple meteorological ensemble forecasts. Consequently, both the uncertainty linked to the architecture of the meteorological model and the uncertainty linked to the initial condition of the atmosphere can be accounted for. The main objective of this work is to show that a weighted combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts based on different atmospheric models can lead to improved hydrological ensemble forecasts, for horizons from one to ten days. This experiment is performed for the Baskatong watershed, a head subcatchment of the Gatineau watershed in the province of Quebec, in Canada. Baskatong watershed is of great importance for hydro-power production, as it comprises the main reservoir for the Gatineau watershed, on which there are six hydropower plants managed by Hydro-Québec. Since the 70's, they have been using pseudo ensemble forecast based on deterministic meteorological forecasts to which variability derived from past forecasting errors is added. We use a combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts from different models (precipitation and temperature) as the main inputs for hydrological model HSAMI ([2]). The meteorological ensembles from eight of the nine agencies available through TIGGE are weighted according to their individual performance and combined to form a grand ensemble. Results show that the hydrological forecasts derived from the grand ensemble perform better than the pseudo ensemble forecasts actually used operationally at Hydro-Québec. References: [1] M. Verbunt, A. Walser, J. Gurtz et al., "Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: Selected case studies," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 897-909, Aug, 2007. [2] N. Evora, Valorisation des prévisions météorologiques d'ensemble, Institu de recherceh d'Hydro-Québec 2005. [3] V. Fortin, Le modèle météo-apport HSAMI: historique, théorie et application, Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Québec, 2000.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.
2017-12-01
This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate projections is corrected, and the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes is assessed in a cost-efficient way.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Hui; Hong, Lu-Yao; Zhou, Qing; Yu, Hai-Jie
2015-08-01
The business failure of numerous companies results in financial crises. The high social costs associated with such crises have made people to search for effective tools for business risk prediction, among which, support vector machine is very effective. Several modelling means, including single-technique modelling, hybrid modelling, and ensemble modelling, have been suggested in forecasting business risk with support vector machine. However, existing literature seldom focuses on the general modelling frame for business risk prediction, and seldom investigates performance differences among different modelling means. We reviewed researches on forecasting business risk with support vector machine, proposed the general assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble (APMF-WHAE), and finally, investigated the use of principal components analysis, support vector machine, random sampling, and group decision, under the general frame in forecasting business risk. Under the APMF-WHAE frame with support vector machine as the base predictive model, four specific predictive models were produced, namely, pure support vector machine, a hybrid support vector machine involved with principal components analysis, a support vector machine ensemble involved with random sampling and group decision, and an ensemble of hybrid support vector machine using group decision to integrate various hybrid support vector machines on variables produced from principle components analysis and samples from random sampling. The experimental results indicate that hybrid support vector machine and ensemble of hybrid support vector machines were able to produce dominating performance than pure support vector machine and support vector machine ensemble.
Creating "Intelligent" Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, Noel; Taylor, Patrick
2014-05-01
The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is used to add value to individual model projections and construct a consensus projection. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, individual models reproduce certain climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. The intention is to produce improved ("intelligent") unequal-weight ensemble averages. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Several climate process metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument in combination with surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing the equal-weighted ensemble average and an ensemble weighted using the process-based metric. Additionally, this study investigates the dependence of the metric weighting scheme on the climate state using a combination of model simulations including a non-forced preindustrial control experiment, historical simulations, and several radiative forcing Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to advise better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.
Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhang, Sara; Zupanski, Dusanka; Hou, Arthur; Zupanski, Milija
2008-01-01
Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.
Determination of the conformational ensemble of the TAR RNA by X-ray scattering interferometry
Walker, Peter
2017-01-01
Abstract The conformational ensembles of structured RNA's are crucial for biological function, but they remain difficult to elucidate experimentally. We demonstrate with HIV-1 TAR RNA that X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI) can be used to determine RNA conformational ensembles. X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI) is based on site-specifically labeling RNA with pairs of heavy atom probes, and precisely measuring the distribution of inter-probe distances that arise from a heterogeneous mixture of RNA solution structures. We show that the XSI-based model of the TAR RNA ensemble closely resembles an independent model derived from NMR-RDC data. Further, we show how the TAR RNA ensemble changes shape at different salt concentrations. Finally, we demonstrate that a single hybrid model of the TAR RNA ensemble simultaneously fits both the XSI and NMR-RDC data set and show that XSI can be combined with NMR-RDC to further improve the quality of the determined ensemble. The results suggest that XSI-RNA will be a powerful approach for characterizing the solution conformational ensembles of RNAs and RNA-protein complexes under diverse solution conditions. PMID:28108663
Tang, Zhongxue; Fu, Yuanyuan; Ma, Zhanfang
2017-05-15
In this work, multiple signal amplification strategies for ultrasensitive label-free electrochemical immunoassay for carbohydrate antigen 24-2 (CA242) were developed using redox sodium alginate-Pb 2+ -graphene oxide (SA-Pb 2+ -GO) hydrogel. The SA-Pb 2+ -GO hydrogel was synthesised by simply mixing SA, GO, and Pb 2+ and then implemented as a novel redox species with a strong current signal at -0.46V (vs. Ag/AgCl). After the three-dimensional and porous SA-Pb 2+ -GO hydrogel was in situ generated on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE), chitosan was adsorbed on the obtained electrode to further enrich Pb 2+ . When chitosan-Pb 2+ /SA-Pb 2+ -GO/GCE was incubated with anti-CA242 using glutaraldehyde and blocked by bovine serum albumin, the immunoassay platform for CA242 was obtained. Owing to the addition of GO, the obtained conductive SA-GO/GCE was beneficial for signal amplification. After incubating SA-GO/GCE with excessive amounts of Pb 2+ , the resistance of SA-Pb 2+ -GO/GCE further decreased and a strong redox signal was obtained. The chitosan fixed by electrostatic adsorption resulted in further adsorption of Pb 2+ , behaving as further amplifying the signal and improving conductivity. In this case, multiple signal amplification strategies were involved in the proposed immunosensor for the ultrasensitive detection of CA242. Under the optimal conditions, the proposed immunosensor exhibited a wide linear range from 0.005UmL -1 to 500UmL -1 with an ultralow detection limit of 0.067mUmL -1 . In comparison to previous works, the sensitivity of this method was 32.98μA (log 10 C CA242 ) -1 , which was a five-fold increase from the previous works. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Benvidi, Ali; Tezerjani, Marzieh Dehghan; Jahanbani, Shahriar; Mazloum Ardakani, Mohammad; Moshtaghioun, Seyed Mohammad
2016-01-15
In this research, we have developed lable free DNA biosensors based on modified glassy carbon electrodes (GCE) with reduced graphene oxide (RGO) and carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) for detection of DNA sequences. This paper compares the detection of BRCA1 5382insC mutation using independent glassy carbon electrodes (GCE) modified with RGO and MWCNTs. A probe (BRCA1 5382insC mutation detection (ssDNA)) was then immobilized on the modified electrodes for a specific time. The immobilization of the probe and its hybridization with the target DNA (Complementary DNA) were performed under optimum conditions using different electrochemical techniques such as cyclic voltammetry (CV) and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The proposed biosensors were used for determination of complementary DNA sequences. The non-modified DNA biosensor (1-pyrenebutyric acid-N- hydroxysuccinimide ester (PANHS)/GCE), revealed a linear relationship between ∆Rct and logarithm of the complementary target DNA concentration ranging from 1.0×10(-16)molL(-1) to 1.0×10(-10)mol L(-1) with a correlation coefficient of 0.992, for DNA biosensors modified with multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and reduced graphene oxide (RGO) wider linear range and lower detection limit were obtained. For ssDNA/PANHS/MWCNTs/GCE a linear range 1.0×10(-17)mol L(-1)-1.0×10(-10)mol L(-1) with a correlation coefficient of 0.993 and for ssDNA/PANHS/RGO/GCE a linear range from 1.0×10(-18)mol L(-1) to 1.0×10(-10)mol L(-1) with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 were obtained. In addition, the mentioned biosensors were satisfactorily applied for discriminating of complementary sequences from noncomplementary sequences, so the mentioned biosensors can be used for the detection of BRCA1-associated breast cancer. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Ehrhardt, Fiona; Soussana, Jean-François; Bellocchi, Gianni; Grace, Peter; McAuliffe, Russel; Recous, Sylvie; Sándor, Renáta; Smith, Pete; Snow, Val; de Antoni Migliorati, Massimiliano; Basso, Bruno; Bhatia, Arti; Brilli, Lorenzo; Doltra, Jordi; Dorich, Christopher D; Doro, Luca; Fitton, Nuala; Giacomini, Sandro J; Grant, Brian; Harrison, Matthew T; Jones, Stephanie K; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Klumpp, Katja; Laville, Patricia; Léonard, Joël; Liebig, Mark; Lieffering, Mark; Martin, Raphaël; Massad, Raia S; Meier, Elizabeth; Merbold, Lutz; Moore, Andrew D; Myrgiotis, Vasileios; Newton, Paul; Pattey, Elizabeth; Rolinski, Susanne; Sharp, Joanna; Smith, Ward N; Wu, Lianhai; Zhang, Qing
2018-02-01
Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N 2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N 2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N 2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N 2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N 2 O emissions (N 2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N 2 O emissions at field scale is discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Numerical weather prediction model tuning via ensemble prediction system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jarvinen, H.; Laine, M.; Ollinaho, P.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.
2011-12-01
This paper discusses a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. Currently, numerical values of these parameters are specified manually. In a recent dual manuscript (QJRMS, revised) we developed a new concept and method for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters. The EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") method requires only minimal changes to the existing operational ensemble prediction infra-structure and it seems very cost-effective because practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating each member of the ensemble of predictions using different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In the presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an atmospheric general circulation model based ensemble prediction system show that the NWP model tuning capacity of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, a global top-end NWP model tuning exercise with preliminary results is published.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.
2014-11-01
Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural vs. model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty is far more important than model parametric uncertainty to estimate irrigation water requirement. Using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.
Discrete post-processing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hemri, Stephan; Haiden, Thomas; Pappenberger, Florian
2017-04-01
This contribution presents an approach to post-process ensemble forecasts for the discrete and bounded weather variable of total cloud cover. Two methods for discrete statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions are tested. The first approach is based on multinomial logistic regression, the second involves a proportional odds logistic regression model. Applying them to total cloud cover raw ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts improves forecast skill significantly. Based on station-wise post-processing of raw ensemble total cloud cover forecasts for a global set of 3330 stations over the period from 2007 to early 2014, the more parsimonious proportional odds logistic regression model proved to slightly outperform the multinomial logistic regression model. Reference Hemri, S., Haiden, T., & Pappenberger, F. (2016). Discrete post-processing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 144, 2565-2577.
SQL/NF Translator for the Triton Nested Relational Database System
1990-12-01
18as., Ohio .. 9~~ ~~ 1 4- AFIT/GCE/ENG/90D-05 SQL/Nk1 TRANSLATOR FOR THE TRITON NESTED RELATIONAL DATABASE SYSTEM THESIS Craig William Schnepf Captain...FOR THE TRITON NESTED RELATIONAL DATABASE SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technnlogy... systems . The SQL/NF query language used for the nested relationil model is an extension of the popular relational model query language SQL. The query
Invariant measures in brain dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boyarsky, Abraham; Góra, Paweł
2006-10-01
This note concerns brain activity at the level of neural ensembles and uses ideas from ergodic dynamical systems to model and characterize chaotic patterns among these ensembles during conscious mental activity. Central to our model is the definition of a space of neural ensembles and the assumption of discrete time ensemble dynamics. We argue that continuous invariant measures draw the attention of deeper brain processes, engendering emergent properties such as consciousness. Invariant measures supported on a finite set of ensembles reflect periodic behavior, whereas the existence of continuous invariant measures reflect the dynamics of nonrepeating ensemble patterns that elicit the interest of deeper mental processes. We shall consider two different ways to achieve continuous invariant measures on the space of neural ensembles: (1) via quantum jitters, and (2) via sensory input accompanied by inner thought processes which engender a “folding” property on the space of ensembles.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oza, Nikunj C.
2004-01-01
Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.
Gruber, Susan; Logan, Roger W; Jarrín, Inmaculada; Monge, Susana; Hernán, Miguel A
2015-01-15
Inverse probability weights used to fit marginal structural models are typically estimated using logistic regression. However, a data-adaptive procedure may be able to better exploit information available in measured covariates. By combining predictions from multiple algorithms, ensemble learning offers an alternative to logistic regression modeling to further reduce bias in estimated marginal structural model parameters. We describe the application of two ensemble learning approaches to estimating stabilized weights: super learning (SL), an ensemble machine learning approach that relies on V-fold cross validation, and an ensemble learner (EL) that creates a single partition of the data into training and validation sets. Longitudinal data from two multicenter cohort studies in Spain (CoRIS and CoRIS-MD) were analyzed to estimate the mortality hazard ratio for initiation versus no initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy among HIV positive subjects. Both ensemble approaches produced hazard ratio estimates further away from the null, and with tighter confidence intervals, than logistic regression modeling. Computation time for EL was less than half that of SL. We conclude that ensemble learning using a library of diverse candidate algorithms offers an alternative to parametric modeling of inverse probability weights when fitting marginal structural models. With large datasets, EL provides a rich search over the solution space in less time than SL with comparable results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Kheirian, Sedigheh; Zali, Mohammad Reza
2017-12-01
Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common malignancies and cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Given the importance of predicting the survival of CRC patients and the growing use of data mining methods, this study aims to compare the performance of models for predicting 5-year survival of CRC patients using variety of basic and ensemble data mining methods. The CRC dataset from The Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases were used for prediction and comparative study of the base and ensemble data mining techniques. Feature selection methods were used to select predictor attributes for classification. The WEKA toolkit and MedCalc software were respectively utilized for creating and comparing the models. The obtained results showed that the predictive performance of developed models was altogether high (all greater than 90%). Overall, the performance of ensemble models was higher than that of basic classifiers and the best result achieved by ensemble voting model in terms of area under the ROC curve (AUC= 0.96). AUC Comparison of models showed that the ensemble voting method significantly outperformed all models except for two methods of Random Forest (RF) and Bayesian Network (BN) considered the overlapping 95% confidence intervals. This result may indicate high predictive power of these two methods along with ensemble voting for predicting 5-year survival of CRC patients.
Gruber, Susan; Logan, Roger W.; Jarrín, Inmaculada; Monge, Susana; Hernán, Miguel A.
2014-01-01
Inverse probability weights used to fit marginal structural models are typically estimated using logistic regression. However a data-adaptive procedure may be able to better exploit information available in measured covariates. By combining predictions from multiple algorithms, ensemble learning offers an alternative to logistic regression modeling to further reduce bias in estimated marginal structural model parameters. We describe the application of two ensemble learning approaches to estimating stabilized weights: super learning (SL), an ensemble machine learning approach that relies on V -fold cross validation, and an ensemble learner (EL) that creates a single partition of the data into training and validation sets. Longitudinal data from two multicenter cohort studies in Spain (CoRIS and CoRIS-MD) were analyzed to estimate the mortality hazard ratio for initiation versus no initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy among HIV positive subjects. Both ensemble approaches produced hazard ratio estimates further away from the null, and with tighter confidence intervals, than logistic regression modeling. Computation time for EL was less than half that of SL. We conclude that ensemble learning using a library of diverse candidate algorithms offers an alternative to parametric modeling of inverse probability weights when fitting marginal structural models. With large datasets, EL provides a rich search over the solution space in less time than SL with comparable results. PMID:25316152
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A series of long-term integrations using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model were performed by altering imposed environmental components to produce various quasi-equilibrium thermodynamic states. Model results show that the genesis of a warm/wet quasi-equilibrium state is mainly due to either strong vertical wind shear (from nudging) or large surface fluxes (from strong surface winds), while a cold/dry quasi-equilibrium state is attributed to a remarkably weakened mixed-wind shear (from vertical mixing due to deep convection) along with weak surface winds. In general, latent heat flux and net large-scale temperature forcing, the two dominant physical processes, dominate in the beginning stage of the simulated convective systems, then considerably weaken in the final stage, which leads to quasi-equilibrium states. A higher thermodynamic regime is found to produce a larger rainfall amount, as convective clouds are the leading source of rainfall over stratiform clouds even though the former occupy much less area. Moreover, convective clouds are more likely to occur in the presence of strong surface winds (latent heat flux), while stratiform clouds (especially the well-organized type) are favored in conditions with strong wind shear (large-scale forcing). The convective systems, which consist of distinct cloud types due to the variation in horizontal winds, are also found to propagate differently. Accordingly, convective systems with mixed-wind shear generally propagate in the direction of shear, while the system with strong (multidirectional) wind shear propagates in a more complex way. Based on the results from the temperature (Q1) and moisture (Q2) budgets, cloud-scale eddies are found to act as a hydrodynamic 'vehicle' that cascades the heat and moisture vertically. Several other specific features such as atmospheric stability, CAPE, and mass fluxes are also investigated and found to be significantly different between diverse quasi-equilibrium states. Detailed comparisons between the various states are presented.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schalge, Bernd; Rihani, Jehan; Haese, Barbara; Baroni, Gabriele; Erdal, Daniel; Haefliger, Vincent; Lange, Natascha; Neuweiler, Insa; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Geppert, Gernot; Ament, Felix; Kollet, Stefan; Cirpka, Olaf; Saavedra, Pablo; Han, Xujun; Attinger, Sabine; Kunstmann, Harald; Vereecken, Harry; Simmer, Clemens
2017-04-01
Currently, an integrated approach to simulating the earth system is evolving where several compartment models are coupled to achieve the best possible physically consistent representation. We used the model TerrSysMP, which fully couples subsurface, land surface and atmosphere, in a synthetic study that mimicked the Neckar catchment in Southern Germany. A virtual reality run at a high resolution of 400m for the land surface and subsurface and 1.1km for the atmosphere was made. Ensemble runs at a lower resolution (800m for the land surface and subsurface) were also made. The ensemble was generated by varying soil and vegetation parameters and lateral atmospheric forcing among the different ensemble members in a systematic way. It was found that the ensemble runs deviated for some variables and some time periods largely from the virtual reality reference run (the reference run was not covered by the ensemble), which could be related to the different model resolutions. This was for example the case for river discharge in the summer. We also analyzed the spread of model states as function of time and found clear relations between the spread and the time of the year and weather conditions. For example, the ensemble spread of latent heat flux related to uncertain soil parameters was larger under dry soil conditions than under wet soil conditions. Another example is that the ensemble spread of atmospheric states was more influenced by uncertain soil and vegetation parameters under conditions of low air pressure gradients (in summer) than under conditions with larger air pressure gradients in winter. The analysis of the ensemble of fully coupled model simulations provided valuable insights in the dynamics of land-atmosphere feedbacks which we will further highlight in the presentation.
Oliveira, Roberta B; Pereira, Aledir S; Tavares, João Manuel R S
2017-10-01
The number of deaths worldwide due to melanoma has risen in recent times, in part because melanoma is the most aggressive type of skin cancer. Computational systems have been developed to assist dermatologists in early diagnosis of skin cancer, or even to monitor skin lesions. However, there still remains a challenge to improve classifiers for the diagnosis of such skin lesions. The main objective of this article is to evaluate different ensemble classification models based on input feature manipulation to diagnose skin lesions. Input feature manipulation processes are based on feature subset selections from shape properties, colour variation and texture analysis to generate diversity for the ensemble models. Three subset selection models are presented here: (1) a subset selection model based on specific feature groups, (2) a correlation-based subset selection model, and (3) a subset selection model based on feature selection algorithms. Each ensemble classification model is generated using an optimum-path forest classifier and integrated with a majority voting strategy. The proposed models were applied on a set of 1104 dermoscopic images using a cross-validation procedure. The best results were obtained by the first ensemble classification model that generates a feature subset ensemble based on specific feature groups. The skin lesion diagnosis computational system achieved 94.3% accuracy, 91.8% sensitivity and 96.7% specificity. The input feature manipulation process based on specific feature subsets generated the greatest diversity for the ensemble classification model with very promising results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections
Lindström, Tom; Tildesley, Michael; Webb, Colleen
2015-01-01
Mathematical models are powerful tools for epidemiology and can be used to compare control actions. However, different models and model parameterizations may provide different prediction of outcomes. In other fields of research, ensemble modeling has been used to combine multiple projections. We explore the possibility of applying such methods to epidemiology by adapting Bayesian techniques developed for climate forecasting. We exemplify the implementation with single model ensembles based on different parameterizations of the Warwick model run for the 2001 United Kingdom foot and mouth disease outbreak and compare the efficacy of different control actions. This allows us to investigate the effect that discrepancy among projections based on different modeling assumptions has on the ensemble prediction. A sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of prior can have a pronounced effect on the posterior estimates of quantities of interest, in particular for ensembles with large discrepancy among projections. However, by using a hierarchical extension of the method we show that prior sensitivity can be circumvented. We further extend the method to include a priori beliefs about different modeling assumptions and demonstrate that the effect of this can have different consequences depending on the discrepancy among projections. We propose that the method is a promising analytical tool for ensemble modeling of disease outbreaks. PMID:25927892
Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Leonard A.; Binter, Roman; Du, Hailiang; Niehoerster, Falk
2010-05-01
In operational forecasting, the computational complexity of large simulation models is, ideally, justified by enhanced performance over simpler models. We will consider probability forecasts and contrast the skill of ENSEMBLES-based seasonal probability forecasts of interest to the finance sector (specifically temperature forecasts for Nino 3.4 and the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)). The ENSEMBLES model simulations will be contrasted against forecasts from statistical models based on the observations (climatological distributions) and empirical dynamics based on the observations but conditioned on the current state (dynamical climatology). For some start dates, individual ENSEMBLES models yield significant skill even at a lead-time of 14 months. The nature of this skill is discussed, and chances of application are noted. Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of "zero-skill" models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time.
Amozegar, M; Khorasani, K
2016-04-01
In this paper, a new approach for Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) of gas turbine engines is proposed by developing an ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers. For health monitoring of the gas turbine engine, its dynamics is first identified by constructing three separate or individual dynamic neural network architectures. Specifically, a dynamic multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a dynamic radial-basis function (RBF) neural network, and a dynamic support vector machine (SVM) are trained to individually identify and represent the gas turbine engine dynamics. Next, three ensemble-based techniques are developed to represent the gas turbine engine dynamics, namely, two heterogeneous ensemble models and one homogeneous ensemble model. It is first shown that all ensemble approaches do significantly improve the overall performance and accuracy of the developed system identification scheme when compared to each of the stand-alone solutions. The best selected stand-alone model (i.e., the dynamic RBF network) and the best selected ensemble architecture (i.e., the heterogeneous ensemble) in terms of their performances in achieving an accurate system identification are then selected for solving the FDI task. The required residual signals are generated by using both a single model-based solution and an ensemble-based solution under various gas turbine engine health conditions. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the fault detection and isolation task achieved by using the residuals that are obtained from the dynamic ensemble scheme results in a significantly more accurate and reliable performance as illustrated through detailed quantitative confusion matrix analysis and comparative studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cervera, Javier; Manzanares, Jose Antonio; Mafe, Salvador
2015-02-19
We analyze the coupling of model nonexcitable (non-neural) cells assuming that the cell membrane potential is the basic individual property. We obtain this potential on the basis of the inward and outward rectifying voltage-gated channels characteristic of cell membranes. We concentrate on the electrical coupling of a cell ensemble rather than on the biochemical and mechanical characteristics of the individual cells, obtain the map of single cell potentials using simple assumptions, and suggest procedures to collectively modify this spatial map. The response of the cell ensemble to an external perturbation and the consequences of cell isolation, heterogeneity, and ensemble size are also analyzed. The results suggest that simple coupling mechanisms can be significant for the biophysical chemistry of model biomolecular ensembles. In particular, the spatiotemporal map of single cell potentials should be relevant for the uptake and distribution of charged nanoparticles over model cell ensembles and the collective properties of droplet networks incorporating protein ion channels inserted in lipid bilayers.
Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2017-07-01
We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.
Multi-criterion model ensemble of CMIP5 surface air temperature over China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Tiantian; Tao, Yumeng; Li, Jingjing; Zhu, Qian; Su, Lu; He, Xiaojia; Zhang, Xiaoming
2018-05-01
The global circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for simulating climate change, projecting future temperature changes, and therefore, supporting the preparation of national climate adaptation plans. However, different GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over various regions. The reason is that GCMs' configurations, module characteristics, and dynamic forcings vary from one to another. Model ensemble techniques are extensively used to post-process the outputs from GCMs and improve the variability of model outputs. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC, or R) and uncertainty are commonly used statistics for evaluating the performances of GCMs. However, the simultaneous achievements of all satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed in using many model ensemble techniques. In this paper, we propose a multi-model ensemble framework, using a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm (termed MOSPD), to evaluate different characteristics of ensemble candidates and to provide comprehensive trade-off information for different model ensemble solutions. A case study of optimizing the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over different geographical regions of China is carried out. The data covers from the period of 1900 to 2100, and the projections of SAT are analyzed with regard to three different statistical indices (i.e., RMSE, CC, and uncertainty). Among the derived ensemble solutions, the trade-off information is further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistics. The comparison results over historical period (1900-2005) show that the optimized solutions are superior over that obtained simple model average, as well as any single GCM output. The improvements of statistics are varying for different climatic regions over China. Future projection (2006-2100) with the proposed ensemble method identifies that the largest (smallest) temperature changes will happen in the South Central China (the Inner Mongolia), the North Eastern China (the South Central China), and the North Western China (the South Central China), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, Allison H.; Hu, Yong; Hammerling, Dorit M.; Tseng, Yu-heng; Xu, Haiying; Huang, Xiaomeng; Bryan, Frank O.; Yang, Guangwen
2016-07-01
The Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the ocean model component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), is widely used in climate research. Most current work in CESM-POP focuses on improving the model's efficiency or accuracy, such as improving numerical methods, advancing parameterization, porting to new architectures, or increasing parallelism. Since ocean dynamics are chaotic in nature, achieving bit-for-bit (BFB) identical results in ocean solutions cannot be guaranteed for even tiny code modifications, and determining whether modifications are admissible (i.e., statistically consistent with the original results) is non-trivial. In recent work, an ensemble-based statistical approach was shown to work well for software verification (i.e., quality assurance) on atmospheric model data. The general idea of the ensemble-based statistical consistency testing is to use a qualitative measurement of the variability of the ensemble of simulations as a metric with which to compare future simulations and make a determination of statistical distinguishability. The capability to determine consistency without BFB results boosts model confidence and provides the flexibility needed, for example, for more aggressive code optimizations and the use of heterogeneous execution environments. Since ocean and atmosphere models have differing characteristics in term of dynamics, spatial variability, and timescales, we present a new statistical method to evaluate ocean model simulation data that requires the evaluation of ensemble means and deviations in a spatial manner. In particular, the statistical distribution from an ensemble of CESM-POP simulations is used to determine the standard score of any new model solution at each grid point. Then the percentage of points that have scores greater than a specified threshold indicates whether the new model simulation is statistically distinguishable from the ensemble simulations. Both ensemble size and composition are important. Our experiments indicate that the new POP ensemble consistency test (POP-ECT) tool is capable of distinguishing cases that should be statistically consistent with the ensemble and those that should not, as well as providing a simple, subjective and systematic way to detect errors in CESM-POP due to the hardware or software stack, positively contributing to quality assurance for the CESM-POP code.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, Sujay V.; Wang, Shugong; Mocko, David M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Xia, Youlong
2017-11-01
Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.
Ensemble Methods for Classification of Physical Activities from Wrist Accelerometry.
Chowdhury, Alok Kumar; Tjondronegoro, Dian; Chandran, Vinod; Trost, Stewart G
2017-09-01
To investigate whether the use of ensemble learning algorithms improve physical activity recognition accuracy compared to the single classifier algorithms, and to compare the classification accuracy achieved by three conventional ensemble machine learning methods (bagging, boosting, random forest) and a custom ensemble model comprising four algorithms commonly used for activity recognition (binary decision tree, k nearest neighbor, support vector machine, and neural network). The study used three independent data sets that included wrist-worn accelerometer data. For each data set, a four-step classification framework consisting of data preprocessing, feature extraction, normalization and feature selection, and classifier training and testing was implemented. For the custom ensemble, decisions from the single classifiers were aggregated using three decision fusion methods: weighted majority vote, naïve Bayes combination, and behavior knowledge space combination. Classifiers were cross-validated using leave-one subject out cross-validation and compared on the basis of average F1 scores. In all three data sets, ensemble learning methods consistently outperformed the individual classifiers. Among the conventional ensemble methods, random forest models provided consistently high activity recognition; however, the custom ensemble model using weighted majority voting demonstrated the highest classification accuracy in two of the three data sets. Combining multiple individual classifiers using conventional or custom ensemble learning methods can improve activity recognition accuracy from wrist-worn accelerometer data.
On the Likely Utility of Hybrid Weights Optimized for Variances in Hybrid Error Covariance Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Satterfield, E.; Hodyss, D.; Kuhl, D.; Bishop, C. H.
2017-12-01
Because of imperfections in ensemble data assimilation schemes, one cannot assume that the ensemble covariance is equal to the true error covariance of a forecast. Previous work demonstrated how information about the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance can be revealed from an archive of (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs. Here, we derive a simple and intuitively compelling formula to obtain the mean of this distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance from (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs produced by a single run of a data assimilation system. This formula takes the form of a Hybrid weighted average of the climatological forecast error variance and the ensemble sample variance. Here, we test the extent to which these readily obtainable weights can be used to rapidly optimize the covariance weights used in Hybrid data assimilation systems that employ weighted averages of static covariance models and flow-dependent ensemble based covariance models. Univariate data assimilation and multi-variate cycling ensemble data assimilation are considered. In both cases, it is found that our computationally efficient formula gives Hybrid weights that closely approximate the optimal weights found through the simple but computationally expensive process of testing every plausible combination of weights.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang
2017-04-01
How to design a reliable ensemble prediction strategy with considering the major uncertainties of a forecasting system is a crucial issue for performing an ensemble forecast. In this study, a new stochastic perturbation technique is developed to improve the prediction skills of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through using an intermediate coupled model. We first estimate and analyze the model uncertainties from the ensemble Kalman filter analysis results through assimilating the observed sea surface temperatures. Then, based on the pre-analyzed properties of model errors, we develop a zero-mean stochastic model-error model to characterize the model uncertainties mainly induced by the missed physical processes of the original model (e.g., stochastic atmospheric forcing, extra-tropical effects, Indian Ocean Dipole). Finally, we perturb each member of an ensemble forecast at each step by the developed stochastic model-error model during the 12-month forecasting process, and add the zero-mean perturbations into the physical fields to mimic the presence of missing processes and high-frequency stochastic noises. The impacts of stochastic model-error perturbations on ENSO deterministic predictions are examined by performing two sets of 21-yr hindcast experiments, which are initialized from the same initial conditions and differentiated by whether they consider the stochastic perturbations. The comparison results show that the stochastic perturbations have a significant effect on improving the ensemble-mean prediction skills during the entire 12-month forecasting process. This improvement occurs mainly because the nonlinear terms in the model can form a positive ensemble-mean from a series of zero-mean perturbations, which reduces the forecasting biases and then corrects the forecast through this nonlinear heating mechanism.
Amare, Meareg; Abicho, Samuel; Admassie, Shimelis
2014-01-01
A glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with poly(4-amino-3-hydroxynaphthalene sulfonic acid) (poly-AHNSA) was used for the selective and sensitive determination of fenitrothion (FT) organophosphorus pesticide in water. The electrochemical behavior of FT at the bare GCE and the poly-AHNSA/GCE were compared using cyclic voltammetry. Enhanced peak current response and shift to a lower potential at the polymer-modified electrode indicated the electrocatalytic activity of the polymer film towards FT. Under optimized solution and method parameters, the adsorptive stripping square wave voltammetric reductive peak current of FT was linear to FT concentration in the range of 0.001 to 6.6 x 10(-6) M, and the LOD obtained (3delta/m) was 7.95 x 10(-10) M. Recoveries in the range 96-98% of spiked FT in tap water and reproducible results with RSD of 2.6% (n = 5) were obtained, indicating the potential applicability of the method for the determination of trace levels of FT in environmental samples.
Zhou, Xuechou; Tan, Bingcan; Zheng, Xinyu; Kong, Dexian; Li, Qinglu
2015-11-15
The interfacial electron transfer of glucose oxidase (GOx) on a poly(glutamic acid)-modified glassy carbon electrode (PGA/GCE) was investigated. The redox peaks measured for GOx and flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD) are similar, and the anodic peak of GOx does not increase in the presence of glucose in a mediator-free solution. These indicate that the electroactivity of GOx is not the direct electron transfer (DET) between GOx and PGA/GCE and that the observed electroactivity of GOx is ascribed to free FAD that is released from GOx. However, efficient electron transfer occurred if an appropriate mediator was placed in solution, suggesting that GOx is active. The PGA/GCE-based biosensor showed wide linear response in the range of 0.5-5.5 mM with a low detection limit of 0.12 mM and high sensitivity and selectivity for measuring glucose. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Porter, Joseph J; Mehl, Ryan A
2018-01-01
Posttranslational modifications resulting from oxidation of proteins (Ox-PTMs) are present intracellularly under conditions of oxidative stress as well as basal conditions. In the past, these modifications were thought to be generic protein damage, but it has become increasingly clear that Ox-PTMs can have specific physiological effects. It is an arduous task to distinguish between the two cases, as multiple Ox-PTMs occur simultaneously on the same protein, convoluting analysis. Genetic code expansion (GCE) has emerged as a powerful tool to overcome this challenge as it allows for the site-specific incorporation of an Ox-PTM into translated protein. The resulting homogeneously modified protein products can then be rigorously characterized for the effects of individual Ox-PTMs. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of GCE as they relate to the field of oxidative stress and Ox-PTMs. An overview of the Ox-PTMs that have been genetically encoded and applications of GCE to the study of Ox-PTMs, including antibody validation and therapeutic development, is described.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Annan, James; Hargreaves, Julia
2016-04-01
In order to perform any Bayesian processing of a model ensemble, we need a prior over the ensemble members. In the case of multimodel ensembles such as CMIP, the historical approach of ``model democracy'' (i.e. equal weight for all models in the sample) is no longer credible (if it ever was) due to model duplication and inbreeding. The question of ``model independence'' is central to the question of prior weights. However, although this question has been repeatedly raised, it has not yet been satisfactorily addressed. Here I will discuss the issue of independence and present a theoretical foundation for understanding and analysing the ensemble in this context. I will also present some simple examples showing how these ideas may be applied and developed.
DART: Tools and Support for Ensemble Data Assimilation Research, Operations, and Education
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoar, T. J.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Raeder, K.; Kershaw, H.; Romine, G. S.; Mizzi, A. P.; Chatterjee, A.; Karspeck, A. R.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Ha, S. Y.; Barre, J.; Gaubert, B.
2014-12-01
The Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) is a community facility for ensemble data assimilation developed and supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. DART provides a comprehensive suite of software, documentation, examples and tutorials that can be used for ensemble data assimilation research, operations, and education. Scientists and software engineers from the Data Assimilation Research Section at NCAR are available to actively support DART users who want to use existing DART products or develop their own new applications. Current DART users range from university professors teaching data assimilation, to individual graduate students working with simple models, through national laboratories doing operational prediction with large state-of-the-art models. DART runs efficiently on many computational platforms ranging from laptops through thousands of cores on the newest supercomputers. This poster focuses on several recent research activities using DART with geophysical models. First, DART is being used with the Community Atmosphere Model Spectral Element (CAM-SE) and Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) global atmospheric models that support locally enhanced grid resolution. Initial results from ensemble assimilation with both models are presented. DART is also being used to produce ensemble analyses of atmospheric tracers, in particular CO, in both the global CAM-Chem model and the regional Weather Research and Forecast with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model by assimilating observations from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instruments. Results from ensemble analyses in both models are presented. An interface between DART and the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model has been completed and ensemble land surface analyses with DART/CABLE will be discussed. Finally, an update on ensemble analyses in the fully-coupled Community Earth System (CESM) is presented. The poster includes instructions on how to get started using DART for research or educational applications.
Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B
2018-04-01
Objective Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Keppenne, C. L.; Rienecker, M.; Borovikov, A. Y.
1999-01-01
Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.
Liu, Ying; Sheng, Zhentao; Liu, Hanhan; Wen, Di; He, Qianyu; Wang, Sheng; Shao, Wei; Jiang, Rong-Jing; An, Shiheng; Sun, Yaning; Bendena, William G; Wang, Jian; Gilbert, Lawrence I; Wilson, Thomas G; Song, Qisheng; Li, Sheng
2009-06-01
Juvenile hormone (JH) regulates many developmental and physiological events in insects, but its molecular mechanism remains conjectural. Here we report that genetic ablation of the corpus allatum cells of the Drosophila ring gland (the JH source) resulted in JH deficiency, pupal lethality and precocious and enhanced programmed cell death (PCD) of the larval fat body. In the fat body of the JH-deficient animals, Dronc and Drice, two caspase genes that are crucial for PCD induced by the molting hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E), were significantly upregulated. These results demonstrated that JH antagonizes 20E-induced PCD by restricting the mRNA levels of Dronc and Drice. The antagonizing effect of JH on 20E-induced PCD in the fat body was further confirmed in the JH-deficient animals by 20E treatment and RNA interference of the 20E receptor EcR. Moreover, MET and GCE, the bHLH-PAS transcription factors involved in JH action, were shown to induce PCD by upregulating Dronc and Drice. In the Met- and gce-deficient animals, Dronc and Drice were downregulated, whereas in the Met-overexpression fat body, Dronc and Drice were significantly upregulated leading to precocious and enhanced PCD, and this upregulation could be suppressed by application of the JH agonist methoprene. For the first time, we demonstrate that JH counteracts MET and GCE to prevent caspase-dependent PCD in controlling fat body remodeling and larval-pupal metamorphosis in Drosophila.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mphuthi, Ntsoaki G.; Adekunle, Abolanle S.; Fayemi, Omolola E.; Olasunkanmi, Lukman O.; Ebenso, Eno E.
2017-03-01
The electrocatalytic properties of metal oxides (MO = Fe3O4, ZnO) nanoparticles doped phthalocyanine (Pc) and functionalized MWCNTs, decorated on glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was investigated. Successful synthesis of the metal oxide nanoparticles and the MO/Pc/MWCNT composite were confirmed using UV-Vis, EDX, XRD and TEM techniques. Successful modification of GCE with the MO and their composite was also confirmed using cyclic voltammetry (CV) technique. GCE-MWCNT/ZnO/29H,31H-Pc was the best electrode towards DA detection with very low detection limit (0.75 μM) which compared favourably with literature, good sensitivity (1.45 μA/μM), resistance to electrode fouling, and excellent ability to detect DA without interference from AA signal. Electrocatalytic oxidation of DA on GCE-MWCNT/ZnO/29H,31H-Pc electrode was diffusion controlled but characterized with some adsorption of electro-oxidation reaction intermediates products. The fabricated sensors are easy to prepare, cost effective and can be applied for real sample analysis of dopamine in drug composition. The good electrocatalytic properties of 29H,31H-Pc and 2,3-Nc were related to their (quantum chemically derived) frontier molecular orbital energies and global electronegativities. The better performance of 29H,31H-Pc than 2,3-Nc in aiding electrochemical oxidation of DA might be due to its better electron accepting ability, which is inferred from its lower ELUMO and higher χ.
Mphuthi, Ntsoaki G.; Adekunle, Abolanle S.; Fayemi, Omolola E.; Olasunkanmi, Lukman O.; Ebenso, Eno E.
2017-01-01
The electrocatalytic properties of metal oxides (MO = Fe3O4, ZnO) nanoparticles doped phthalocyanine (Pc) and functionalized MWCNTs, decorated on glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was investigated. Successful synthesis of the metal oxide nanoparticles and the MO/Pc/MWCNT composite were confirmed using UV-Vis, EDX, XRD and TEM techniques. Successful modification of GCE with the MO and their composite was also confirmed using cyclic voltammetry (CV) technique. GCE-MWCNT/ZnO/29H,31H-Pc was the best electrode towards DA detection with very low detection limit (0.75 μM) which compared favourably with literature, good sensitivity (1.45 μA/μM), resistance to electrode fouling, and excellent ability to detect DA without interference from AA signal. Electrocatalytic oxidation of DA on GCE-MWCNT/ZnO/29H,31H-Pc electrode was diffusion controlled but characterized with some adsorption of electro-oxidation reaction intermediates products. The fabricated sensors are easy to prepare, cost effective and can be applied for real sample analysis of dopamine in drug composition. The good electrocatalytic properties of 29H,31H-Pc and 2,3-Nc were related to their (quantum chemically derived) frontier molecular orbital energies and global electronegativities. The better performance of 29H,31H-Pc than 2,3-Nc in aiding electrochemical oxidation of DA might be due to its better electron accepting ability, which is inferred from its lower ELUMO and higher χ. PMID:28256521
Lang, Qiaolin; Yin, Long; Shi, Jianguo; Li, Liang; Xia, Lin; Liu, Aihua
2014-01-15
A novel electrochemical sequential biosensor was constructed by co-immobilizing glucoamylase (GA) and glucose oxidase (GOD) on the multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs)-modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) by chemical crosslinking method, where glutaraldehyde and bovine serum albumin was used as crosslinking and blocking agent, respectively. The proposed biosensor (GA/GOD/MWNTs/GCE) is capable of determining starch without using extra sensors such as Clark-type oxygen sensor or H2O2 sensor. The current linearly decreased with the increasing concentration of starch ranging from 0.005% to 0.7% (w/w) with the limit of detection of 0.003% (w/w) starch. The as-fabricated sequential biosensor can be applicable to the detection of the content of starch in real samples, which are in good accordance with traditional Fehling's titration. Finally, a stable starch/O2 biofuel cell was assembled using the GA/GOD/MWNTs/GCE as bioanode and laccase/MWNTs/GCE as biocathode, which exhibited open circuit voltage of ca. 0.53 V and the maximum power density of 8.15 μW cm(-2) at 0.31 V, comparable with the other glucose/O2 based biofuel cells reported recently. Therefore, the proposed biosensor exhibited attractive features such as good stability in weak acidic buffer, good operational stability, wide linear range and capable of determination of starch in real samples as well as optimal bioanode for the biofuel cell. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Safavi, Afsaneh; Farjami, Fatemeh
2011-01-15
An electrodeposition method was applied to form gold-platinum (AuPt) alloy nanoparticles on the glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with a mixture of an ionic liquid (IL) and chitosan (Ch) (AuPt-Ch-IL/GCE). AuPt nanoparticles were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and electrochemical methods. AuPt-Ch-IL/GCE electrocatalyzed the reduction of H(2)O(2) and thus was suitable for the preparation of biosensors. Cholesterol oxidase (ChOx) was then, immobilized on the surface of the electrode by cross-linking ChOx and chitosan through addition of glutaraldehyde (ChOx/AuPt-Ch-IL/GCE). The fabricated biosensor exhibited two wide linear ranges of responses to cholesterol in the concentration ranges of 0.05-6.2 mM and 6.2-11.2 mM. The sensitivity of the biosensor was 90.7 μA mM(-1) cm(-2) and the limit of detection was 10 μM of cholesterol. The response time was less than 7 s. The Michaelis-Menten constant (K(m)) was found as 0.24 mM. The effect of the addition of 1 mM ascorbic acid and glucose was tested on the amperometric response of 0.5 mM cholesterol and no change in response current of cholesterol was observed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tapiador, Francisco; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Angelis, Carlos F.; Martinez, Miguel A.; Cecilia Marcos; Antonio Rodriguez; Hou, Arthur; Jong Shi, Jain
2012-01-01
Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.
Determination of the conformational ensemble of the TAR RNA by X-ray scattering interferometry.
Shi, Xuesong; Walker, Peter; Harbury, Pehr B; Herschlag, Daniel
2017-05-05
The conformational ensembles of structured RNA's are crucial for biological function, but they remain difficult to elucidate experimentally. We demonstrate with HIV-1 TAR RNA that X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI) can be used to determine RNA conformational ensembles. X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI) is based on site-specifically labeling RNA with pairs of heavy atom probes, and precisely measuring the distribution of inter-probe distances that arise from a heterogeneous mixture of RNA solution structures. We show that the XSI-based model of the TAR RNA ensemble closely resembles an independent model derived from NMR-RDC data. Further, we show how the TAR RNA ensemble changes shape at different salt concentrations. Finally, we demonstrate that a single hybrid model of the TAR RNA ensemble simultaneously fits both the XSI and NMR-RDC data set and show that XSI can be combined with NMR-RDC to further improve the quality of the determined ensemble. The results suggest that XSI-RNA will be a powerful approach for characterizing the solution conformational ensembles of RNAs and RNA-protein complexes under diverse solution conditions. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walcott, Sam
2013-03-01
Interactions between the proteins actin and myosin drive muscle contraction. Properties of a single myosin interacting with an actin filament are largely known, but a trillion myosins work together in muscle. We are interested in how single-molecule properties relate to ensemble function. Myosin's reaction rates depend on force, so ensemble models keep track of both molecular state and force on each molecule. These models make subtle predictions, e.g. that myosin, when part of an ensemble, moves actin faster than when isolated. This acceleration arises because forces between molecules speed reaction kinetics. Experiments support this prediction and allow parameter estimates. A model based on this analysis describes experiments from single molecule to ensemble. In vivo, actin is regulated by proteins that, when present, cause the binding of one myosin to speed the binding of its neighbors; binding becomes cooperative. Although such interactions preclude the mean field approximation, a set of linear ODEs describes these ensembles under simplified experimental conditions. In these experiments cooperativity is strong, with the binding of one molecule affecting ten neighbors on either side. We progress toward a description of myosin ensembles under physiological conditions.
Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.
2008-01-01
Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.
2015-04-01
Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural versus model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty among reference ET is far more important than model parametric uncertainty introduced by crop coefficients. These crop coefficients are used to estimate irrigation water requirement following the single crop coefficient approach. Using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.
Complete analysis of ensemble inequivalence in the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hovhannisyan, V. V.; Ananikian, N. S.; Campa, A.; Ruffo, S.
2017-12-01
We study inequivalence of canonical and microcanonical ensembles in the mean-field Blume-Emery-Griffiths model. This generalizes previous results obtained for the Blume-Capel model. The phase diagram strongly depends on the value of the biquadratic exchange interaction K , the additional feature present in the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model. At small values of K , as for the Blume-Capel model, lines of first- and second-order phase transitions between a ferromagnetic and a paramagnetic phase are present, separated by a tricritical point whose location is different in the two ensembles. At higher values of K the phase diagram changes substantially, with the appearance of a triple point in the canonical ensemble, which does not find any correspondence in the microcanonical ensemble. Moreover, one of the first-order lines that starts from the triple point ends in a critical point, whose position in the phase diagram is different in the two ensembles. This line separates two paramagnetic phases characterized by a different value of the quadrupole moment. These features were not previously studied for other models and substantially enrich the landscape of ensemble inequivalence, identifying new aspects that had been discussed in a classification of phase transitions based on singularity theory. Finally, we discuss ergodicity breaking, which is highlighted by the presence of gaps in the accessible values of magnetization at low energies: it also displays new interesting patterns that are not present in the Blume-Capel model.
Ensemble method for dengue prediction.
Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan
2018-01-01
In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.
Ensemble method for dengue prediction
Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J.; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M.; Guven, Erhan
2018-01-01
Background In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Methods Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Principal findings Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. Conclusions The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru. PMID:29298320
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.
2016-12-01
Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling
The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, X.; Khain, A.; Simpson, S.; Johnson, D.; Remer, L.
2004-01-01
Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensembel (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and in the mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "c1ean"concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. In addition, differences and similarities between bulk microphysics and spectral-bin microphysical schemes will be examined and discussed.
The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, X.; Khain, A.; Simpson, S.; Johnson, D.; Remer, L.
2004-01-01
Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, r d a U production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensembe1 (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and platelike), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and in the mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "c1ean"concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. In addition, differences and similarities between bulk microphysics and spectral-bin microphysical schemes will be examined and discussed.
The Origin of r-process Elements in the Milky Way
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Côté, Benoit; Fryer, Chris L.; Belczynski, Krzysztof; Korobkin, Oleg; Chruślińska, Martyna; Vassh, Nicole; Mumpower, Matthew R.; Lippuner, Jonas; Sprouse, Trevor M.; Surman, Rebecca; Wollaeger, Ryan
2018-03-01
Some of the heavy elements, such as gold and europium (Eu), are almost exclusively formed by the rapid neutron capture process (r-process). However, it is still unclear which astrophysical site between core-collapse supernovae and neutron star–neutron star (NS–NS) mergers produced most of the r-process elements in the universe. Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) models can test these scenarios by quantifying the frequency and yields required to reproduce the amount of europium (Eu) observed in galaxies. Although NS–NS mergers have become popular candidates, their required frequency (or rate) needs to be consistent with that obtained from gravitational wave measurements. Here, we address the first NS–NS merger detected by LIGO/Virgo (GW170817) and its associated gamma-ray burst and analyze their implication for the origin of r-process elements. The range of NS–NS merger rate densities of 320–4740 Gpc‑3 yr‑1 provided by LIGO/Virgo is remarkably consistent with the range required by GCE to explain the Eu abundances in the Milky Way with NS–NS mergers, assuming the solar r-process abundance pattern for the ejecta. Under the same assumption, this event has produced about 1–5 Earth masses of Eu, and 3–13 Earth masses of gold. When using theoretical calculations to derive Eu yields, constraining the role of NS–NS mergers becomes more challenging because of nuclear astrophysics uncertainties. This is the first study that directly combines nuclear physics uncertainties with GCE calculations. If GW170817 is a representative event, NS–NS mergers can produce Eu in sufficient amounts and are likely to be the main r-process site.
Multimodel Ensemble Methods for Prediction of Wake-Vortex Transport and Decay Originating NASA
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Korner, Stephan; Ahmad, Nashat N.; Holzapfel, Frank; VanValkenburg, Randal L.
2017-01-01
Several multimodel ensemble methods are selected and further developed to improve the deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of individual wake-vortex transport and decay models. The different multimodel ensemble methods are introduced, and their suitability for wake applications is demonstrated. The selected methods include direct ensemble averaging, Bayesian model averaging, and Monte Carlo simulation. The different methodologies are evaluated employing data from wake-vortex field measurement campaigns conducted in the United States and Germany.
Moyer, Jason T.; Halterman, Benjamin L.; Finkel, Leif H.; Wolf, John A.
2014-01-01
Striatal medium spiny neurons (MSNs) receive lateral inhibitory projections from other MSNs and feedforward inhibitory projections from fast-spiking, parvalbumin-containing striatal interneurons (FSIs). The functional roles of these connections are unknown, and difficult to study in an experimental preparation. We therefore investigated the functionality of both lateral (MSN-MSN) and feedforward (FSI-MSN) inhibition using a large-scale computational model of the striatal network. The model consists of 2744 MSNs comprised of 189 compartments each and 121 FSIs comprised of 148 compartments each, with dendrites explicitly represented and almost all known ionic currents included and strictly constrained by biological data as appropriate. Our analysis of the model indicates that both lateral inhibition and feedforward inhibition function at the population level to limit non-ensemble MSN spiking while preserving ensemble MSN spiking. Specifically, lateral inhibition enables large ensembles of MSNs firing synchronously to strongly suppress non-ensemble MSNs over a short time-scale (10–30 ms). Feedforward inhibition enables FSIs to strongly inhibit weakly activated, non-ensemble MSNs while moderately inhibiting activated ensemble MSNs. Importantly, FSIs appear to more effectively inhibit MSNs when FSIs fire asynchronously. Both types of inhibition would increase the signal-to-noise ratio of responding MSN ensembles and contribute to the formation and dissolution of MSN ensembles in the striatal network. PMID:25505406
Climate Model Ensemble Methodology: Rationale and Challenges
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vezer, M. A.; Myrvold, W.
2012-12-01
A tractable model of the Earth's atmosphere, or, indeed, any large, complex system, is inevitably unrealistic in a variety of ways. This will have an effect on the model's output. Nonetheless, we want to be able to rely on certain features of the model's output in studies aiming to detect, attribute, and project climate change. For this, we need assurance that these features reflect the target system, and are not artifacts of the unrealistic assumptions that go into the model. One technique for overcoming these limitations is to study ensembles of models which employ different simplifying assumptions and different methods of modelling. One then either takes as reliable certain outputs on which models in the ensemble agree, or takes the average of these outputs as the best estimate. Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) modellers have aimed to improve ensemble analysis by developing techniques to account for dependencies among models, and to ascribe unequal weights to models according to their performance. The goal of this paper is to present as clearly and cogently as possible the rationale for climate model ensemble methodology, the motivation of modellers to account for model dependencies, and their efforts to ascribe unequal weights to models. The method of our analysis is as follows. We will consider a simpler, well-understood case of taking the mean of a number of measurements of some quantity. Contrary to what is sometimes said, it is not a requirement of this practice that the errors of the component measurements be independent; one must, however, compensate for any lack of independence. We will also extend the usual accounts to include cases of unknown systematic error. We draw parallels between this simpler illustration and the more complex example of climate model ensembles, detailing how ensembles can provide more useful information than any of their constituent models. This account emphasizes the epistemic importance of considering degrees of model dependence, and the practice of ascribing unequal weights to models of unequal skill.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Yajing; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Candille, Guillem; Brankart, Jean-Michel; Brasseur, Pierre
2015-04-01
Sea surface height, sea surface temperature and temperature profiles at depth collected between January and December 2005 are assimilated into a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. 60 ensemble members are generated by adding realistic noise to the forcing parameters related to the temperature. The ensemble is diagnosed and validated by comparison between the ensemble spread and the model/observation difference, as well as by rank histogram before the assimilation experiments. Incremental analysis update scheme is applied in order to reduce spurious oscillations due to the model state correction. The results of the assimilation are assessed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics with observations used in the assimilation experiments and independent observations, which goes further than most previous studies and constitutes one of the original points of this paper. Regarding the deterministic validation, the ensemble means, together with the ensemble spreads are compared to the observations in order to diagnose the ensemble distribution properties in a deterministic way. Regarding the probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centred random variable (RCRV) score in order to investigate the reliability properties of the ensemble forecast system. The improvement of the assimilation is demonstrated using these validation metrics. Finally, the deterministic validation and the probabilistic validation are analysed jointly. The consistency and complementarity between both validations are highlighted. High reliable situations, in which the RMS error and the CRPS give the same information, are identified for the first time in this paper.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yu, Wansik; Nakakita, Eiichi; Kim, Sunmin; Yamaguchi, Kosei
2016-08-01
The use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue flood warnings. However, space scale of the hydrological domain is still much finer than meteorological model, and NWP models have challenges with displacement. The main objective of this study to enhance the transposition method proposed in Yu et al. (2014) and to suggest the post-processing ensemble flood forecasting method for the real-time updating and the accuracy improvement of flood forecasts that considers the separation of the orographic rainfall and the correction of misplaced rain distributions using additional ensemble information through the transposition of rain distributions. In the first step of the proposed method, ensemble forecast rainfalls from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are separated into orographic and non-orographic rainfall fields using atmospheric variables and the extraction of topographic effect. Then the non-orographic rainfall fields are examined by the transposition scheme to produce additional ensemble information and new ensemble NWP rainfall fields are calculated by recombining the transposition results of non-orographic rain fields with separated orographic rainfall fields for a generation of place-corrected ensemble information. Then, the additional ensemble information is applied into a hydrologic model for post-flood forecasting with a 6-h interval. The newly proposed method has a clear advantage to improve the accuracy of mean value of ensemble flood forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon 'Talas' of 2011 over the two catchments, which are Futatsuno (356.1 km2) and Nanairo (182.1 km2) dam catchments of Shingu river basin (2360 km2), which is located in the Kii peninsula, Japan.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saleh, Firas; Ramaswamy, Venkatsundar; Georgas, Nickitas; Blumberg, Alan F.; Pullen, Julie
2016-07-01
This paper investigates the uncertainties in hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts for an extreme hydrological event using a hydrological model forced with short-range ensemble weather prediction models. A state-of-the art, automated, short-term hydrologic prediction framework was implemented using GIS and a regional scale hydrological model (HEC-HMS). The hydrologic framework was applied to the Hudson River basin ( ˜ 36 000 km2) in the United States using gridded precipitation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and was validated against streamflow observations from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS). Finally, 21 precipitation ensemble members of the latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS/R) were forced into HEC-HMS to generate a retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrological event, Hurricane Irene. The work shows that ensemble stream discharge forecasts provide improved predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks when compared with deterministic forecasts. The uncertainties in weather inputs may result in false warnings and missed river flooding events, reducing the potential to effectively mitigate flood damage. The findings demonstrate how errors in the ensemble median streamflow forecast and time of peak, as well as the ensemble spread (uncertainty) are reduced 48 h pre-event by utilizing the ensemble framework. The methodology and implications of this work benefit efforts of short-term streamflow forecasts at regional scales, notably regarding the peak timing of an extreme hydrologic event when combined with a flood threshold exceedance diagram. Although the modeling framework was implemented on the Hudson River basin, it is flexible and applicable in other parts of the world where atmospheric reanalysis products and streamflow data are available.
Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin
2013-04-01
In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.
Impedance dispersion analysis of drug-membrane interactions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tacheva, Bilyana; Paarvanova, Boyana; Ivanov, Ivan T.; Karabaliev, Miroslav
2017-11-01
Thin lipid films modified glassy carbon electrodes (GCE) were used in this work as model system for studying the interactions between two antipsychotic phenothiazine drugs, chlorpromazine and thioridazine, and the lipid fraction of the biomembranes. The lipid films on the electrode surface were obtained through the thinning of film-forming lipid solution deposited between an electrolyte phase and the working GC electrode. The effects of the drugs on the lipid film structure were investigated by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). To characterize the electric properties of the lipid film the impedance of the working GCE is modeled with an equivalent circuit consisting of parallel capacitance Cp and resistance Rp. These capacitance and resistance are not frequency independent but could be calculated as equivalent Cp and Rp for each measured frequency of the impedance spectrum and presented as functions of the frequency f, Cp = Cp(f) and Rp= Rp(f). For the lipid films used in this work, it is demonstrated that both Cp(f) and Rp(f) are well approximated with power-law functions. This behavior implies that the impedance Z of the films could be analysed in terms of the well-known constant-phase angle element (CPE), which is often used to describe the interfacial impedance of solid working electrodes.
Ocean state and uncertainty forecasts using HYCOM with Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wei, Mozheng; Hogan, Pat; Rowley, Clark; Smedstad, Ole-Martin; Wallcraft, Alan; Penny, Steve
2017-04-01
An ensemble forecast system based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology has been developed for ocean state and uncertainty forecasts. One of the advantages is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates the operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is supplied with the ensemble, thus it avoids the difficulty of developing tangent linear and adjoint models for 4D-VAR from the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate in HYCOM. Another advantage is that the ensemble system provides the valuable uncertainty estimate corresponding to every state forecast from HYCOM. Uncertainty forecasts have been proven to be critical for the downstream users and managers to make more scientifically sound decisions in numerical prediction community. In addition, ensemble mean is generally more accurate and skilful than the single traditional deterministic forecast with the same resolution. We will introduce the ensemble system design and setup, present some results from 30-member ensemble experiment, and discuss scientific, technical and computational issues and challenges, such as covariance localization, inflation, model related uncertainties and sensitivity to the ensemble size.
Gantner, Melisa E; Peroni, Roxana N; Morales, Juan F; Villalba, María L; Ruiz, María E; Talevi, Alan
2017-08-28
Breast Cancer Resistance Protein (BCRP) is an ATP-dependent efflux transporter linked to the multidrug resistance phenomenon in many diseases such as epilepsy and cancer and a potential source of drug interactions. For these reasons, the early identification of substrates and nonsubstrates of this transporter during the drug discovery stage is of great interest. We have developed a computational nonlinear model ensemble based on conformational independent molecular descriptors using a combined strategy of genetic algorithms, J48 decision tree classifiers, and data fusion. The best model ensemble consists in averaging the ranking of the 12 decision trees that showed the best performance on the training set, which also demonstrated a good performance for the test set. It was experimentally validated using the ex vivo everted rat intestinal sac model. Five anticonvulsant drugs classified as nonsubstrates for BRCP by the model ensemble were experimentally evaluated, and none of them proved to be a BCRP substrate under the experimental conditions used, thus confirming the predictive ability of the model ensemble. The model ensemble reported here is a potentially valuable tool to be used as an in silico ADME filter in computer-aided drug discovery campaigns intended to overcome BCRP-mediated multidrug resistance issues and to prevent drug-drug interactions.
Model dependence and its effect on ensemble projections in CMIP5
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abramowitz, G.; Bishop, C.
2013-12-01
Conceptually, the notion of model dependence within climate model ensembles is relatively simple - modelling groups share a literature base, parametrisations, data sets and even model code - the potential for dependence in sampling different climate futures is clear. How though can this conceptual problem inform a practical solution that demonstrably improves the ensemble mean and ensemble variance as an estimate of system uncertainty? While some research has already focused on error correlation or error covariance as a candidate to improve ensemble mean estimates, a complete definition of independence must at least implicitly subscribe to an ensemble interpretation paradigm, such as the 'truth-plus-error', 'indistinguishable', or more recently 'replicate Earth' paradigm. Using a definition of model dependence based on error covariance within the replicate Earth paradigm, this presentation will show that accounting for dependence in surface air temperature gives cooler projections in CMIP5 - by as much as 20% globally in some RCPs - although results differ significantly for each RCP, especially regionally. The fact that the change afforded by accounting for dependence across different RCPs is different is not an inconsistent result. Different numbers of submissions to each RCP by different modelling groups mean that differences in projections from different RCPs are not entirely about RCP forcing conditions - they also reflect different sampling strategies.
Automatic Estimation of Osteoporotic Fracture Cases by Using Ensemble Learning Approaches.
Kilic, Niyazi; Hosgormez, Erkan
2016-03-01
Ensemble learning methods are one of the most powerful tools for the pattern classification problems. In this paper, the effects of ensemble learning methods and some physical bone densitometry parameters on osteoporotic fracture detection were investigated. Six feature set models were constructed including different physical parameters and they fed into the ensemble classifiers as input features. As ensemble learning techniques, bagging, gradient boosting and random subspace (RSM) were used. Instance based learning (IBk) and random forest (RF) classifiers applied to six feature set models. The patients were classified into three groups such as osteoporosis, osteopenia and control (healthy), using ensemble classifiers. Total classification accuracy and f-measure were also used to evaluate diagnostic performance of the proposed ensemble classification system. The classification accuracy has reached to 98.85 % by the combination of model 6 (five BMD + five T-score values) using RSM-RF classifier. The findings of this paper suggest that the patients will be able to be warned before a bone fracture occurred, by just examining some physical parameters that can easily be measured without invasive operations.
Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change.
Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas
In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis. And third, sampling models from each cluster, to generate a subset of representative simulations. We present an application based on the ENSEMBLES regional multi-model ensemble with the aim to provide input for a variety of climate impact studies. We find that the two most dominant patterns of climate change relate to temperature and humidity patterns. The ensemble can be reduced from 25 to 5 simulations while still maintaining its essential characteristics. Having such a representative subset of simulations reduces computational costs for climate impact modeling and enhances the quality of the ensemble at the same time, as it prevents double-counting of dependent simulations that would lead to biased statistics. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1582-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Smith, Morgan E; Singh, Brajendra K; Irvine, Michael A; Stolk, Wilma A; Subramanian, Swaminathan; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Michael, Edwin
2017-03-01
Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Symmetry Transition Preserving Chirality in QCD: A Versatile Random Matrix Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kanazawa, Takuya; Kieburg, Mario
2018-06-01
We consider a random matrix model which interpolates between the chiral Gaussian unitary ensemble and the Gaussian unitary ensemble while preserving chiral symmetry. This ensemble describes flavor symmetry breaking for staggered fermions in 3D QCD as well as in 4D QCD at high temperature or in 3D QCD at a finite isospin chemical potential. Our model is an Osborn-type two-matrix model which is equivalent to the elliptic ensemble but we consider the singular value statistics rather than the complex eigenvalue statistics. We report on exact results for the partition function and the microscopic level density of the Dirac operator in the ɛ regime of QCD. We compare these analytical results with Monte Carlo simulations of the matrix model.
Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume
2013-01-01
Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.
Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wang, Yao Xun
2011-01-01
Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Butlitsky, M. A.; Zelener, B. B.; Zelener, B. V.
2015-11-01
Earlier a two-component pseudopotential plasma model, which we called a “shelf Coulomb” model has been developed. A Monte-Carlo study of canonical NVT ensemble with periodic boundary conditions has been undertaken to calculate equations of state, pair distribution functions, internal energies and other thermodynamics properties of the model. In present work, an attempt is made to apply so-called hybrid Gibbs statistical ensemble Monte-Carlo technique to this model. First simulation results data show qualitatively similar results for critical point region for both methods. Gibbs ensemble technique let us to estimate the melting curve position and a triple point of the model (in reduced temperature and specific volume coordinates): T* ≈ 0.0476, v* ≈ 6 × 10-4.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.
2018-04-01
A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn
2016-04-01
Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending on where they are situated and the hydrological regime. There is an improvement in CRPS for all catchments compared to raw EPS ensembles. The improvement is up to lead-time 5-7. The postprocessing also improves the MAE for the median of the predictive PDF compared to the median of the raw EPS. But less compared to CRPS, often up to lead-time 2-3. The streamflow ensembles are to some extent used operationally in Statkraft Energi (Hydro Power company, Norway), with respect to early warning, risk assessment and decision-making. Presently all forecast used operationally for short-term scheduling are deterministic, but ensembles are used visually for expert assessment of risk in difficult situations where e.g. there is a chance of overflow in a reservoir. However, there are plans to incorporate ensembles in the daily scheduling of hydropower production.
Supermodeling With A Global Atmospheric Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wiegerinck, Wim; Burgers, Willem; Selten, Frank
2013-04-01
In weather and climate prediction studies it often turns out to be the case that the multi-model ensemble mean prediction has the best prediction skill scores. One possible explanation is that the major part of the model error is random and is averaged out in the ensemble mean. In the standard multi-model ensemble approach, the models are integrated in time independently and the predicted states are combined a posteriori. Recently an alternative ensemble prediction approach has been proposed in which the models exchange information during the simulation and synchronize on a common solution that is closer to the truth than any of the individual model solutions in the standard multi-model ensemble approach or a weighted average of these. This approach is called the super modeling approach (SUMO). The potential of the SUMO approach has been demonstrated in the context of simple, low-order, chaotic dynamical systems. The information exchange takes the form of linear nudging terms in the dynamical equations that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. With a suitable choice of the connection strengths the models synchronize on a common solution that is indeed closer to the true system than any of the individual model solutions without nudging. This approach is called connected SUMO. An alternative approach is to integrate a weighted averaged model, weighted SUMO. At each time step all models in the ensemble calculate the tendency, these tendencies are weighted averaged and the state is integrated one time step into the future with this weighted averaged tendency. It was shown that in case the connected SUMO synchronizes perfectly, the connected SUMO follows the weighted averaged trajectory and both approaches yield the same solution. In this study we pioneer both approaches in the context of a global, quasi-geostrophic, three-level atmosphere model that is capable of simulating quite realistically the extra-tropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.
2015-01-01
Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Keppenne, Christian L.
2013-01-01
A two-step ensemble recentering Kalman filter (ERKF) analysis scheme is introduced. The algorithm consists of a recentering step followed by an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analysis step. The recentering step is formulated such as to adjust the prior distribution of an ensemble of model states so that the deviations of individual samples from the sample mean are unchanged but the original sample mean is shifted to the prior position of the most likely particle, where the likelihood of each particle is measured in terms of closeness to a chosen subset of the observations. The computational cost of the ERKF is essentially the same as that of a same size EnKF. The ERKF is applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into the OGCM component of an ensemble of NASA GEOS-5 coupled models. Unassimilated Argo salt data are used for validation. A surprisingly small number (16) of model trajectories is sufficient to significantly improve model estimates of salinity over estimates from an ensemble run without assimilation. The two-step algorithm also performs better than the EnKF although its performance is degraded in poorly observed regions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Edouard, Simon; Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique
2018-05-01
Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods (FF). FF modelling is affected by several kinds of uncertainties and Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) are designed to take those uncertainties into account. The major source of uncertainty comes from rainfall forcing and convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction systems can manage it for forecasting purpose. But other sources are related to the hydrological modelling part of the HEPS. This study focuses on the uncertainties arising from the hydrological model parameters and initial soil moisture with aim to design an ensemble-based version of an hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers simulations, the ISBA-TOP coupled system. The first step consists in identifying the parameters that have the strongest influence on FF simulations by assuming perfect precipitation. A sensitivity study is carried out first using a synthetic framework and then for several real events and several catchments. Perturbation methods varying the most sensitive parameters as well as initial soil moisture allow designing an ensemble-based version of ISBA-TOP. The first results of this system on some real events are presented. The direct perspective of this work will be to drive this ensemble-based version with the members of a convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction system to design a complete HEPS for FF forecasting.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brown, James; Seo, Dong-Jun
2010-05-01
Operational forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables often contain large uncertainties, for which ensemble techniques are increasingly used. However, the utility of ensemble forecasts depends on the unbiasedness of the forecast probabilities. We describe a technique for quantifying and removing biases from ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables, intended for use in operational forecasting. The technique makes no a priori assumptions about the distributional form of the variables, which is often unknown or difficult to model parametrically. The aim is to estimate the conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) of the observed variable given a (possibly biased) real-time ensemble forecast from one or several forecasting systems (multi-model ensembles). The technique is based on Bayesian optimal linear estimation of indicator variables, and is analogous to indicator cokriging (ICK) in geostatistics. By developing linear estimators for the conditional expectation of the observed variable at many thresholds, ICK provides a discrete approximation of the full ccdf. Since ICK minimizes the conditional error variance of the indicator expectation at each threshold, it effectively minimizes the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) when infinitely many thresholds are employed. However, the ensemble members used as predictors in ICK, and other bias-correction techniques, are often highly cross-correlated, both within and between models. Thus, we propose an orthogonal transform of the predictors used in ICK, which is analogous to using their principal components in the linear system of equations. This leads to a well-posed problem in which a minimum number of predictors are used to provide maximum information content in terms of the total variance explained. The technique is used to bias-correct precipitation ensemble forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), for which independent validation results are presented. Extension to multimodel ensembles from the NCEP GFS and Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) systems is also proposed.
Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman
2015-05-01
The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of predictand, possesses a Bayesian coherence property, constitutes a random sample of the predictand, and has an acceptable sampling error-which makes it suitable for rational decision making under uncertainty.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khajehei, Sepideh; Moradkhani, Hamid
2015-04-01
Producing reliable and accurate hydrologic ensemble forecasts are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including meteorological forcing, initial conditions, model structure, and model parameters. Producing reliable and skillful precipitation ensemble forecasts is one approach to reduce the total uncertainty in hydrological applications. Currently, National Weather Prediction (NWP) models are developing ensemble forecasts for various temporal ranges. It is proven that raw products from NWP models are biased in mean and spread. Given the above state, there is a need for methods that are able to generate reliable ensemble forecasts for hydrological applications. One of the common techniques is to apply statistical procedures in order to generate ensemble forecast from NWP-generated single-value forecasts. The procedure is based on the bivariate probability distribution between the observation and single-value precipitation forecast. However, one of the assumptions of the current method is fitting Gaussian distribution to the marginal distributions of observed and modeled climate variable. Here, we have described and evaluated a Bayesian approach based on Copula functions to develop an ensemble precipitation forecast from the conditional distribution of single-value precipitation forecasts. Copula functions are known as the multivariate joint distribution of univariate marginal distributions, which are presented as an alternative procedure in capturing the uncertainties related to meteorological forcing. Copulas are capable of modeling the joint distribution of two variables with any level of correlation and dependency. This study is conducted over a sub-basin in the Columbia River Basin in USA using the monthly precipitation forecasts from Climate Forecast System (CFS) with 0.5x0.5 Deg. spatial resolution to reproduce the observations. The verification is conducted on a different period and the superiority of the procedure is compared with Ensemble Pre-Processor approach currently used by National Weather Service River Forecast Centers in USA.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Contacts Change Log Events Calendar People Numerical Forecast Systems Ensemble and Post Processing Team
Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP.
Shim, Yoonsik; Philippides, Andrew; Staras, Kevin; Husbands, Phil
2016-10-01
We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture.
Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP
Staras, Kevin
2016-01-01
We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture. PMID:27760125
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Maggioni, V.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Reichle, R. H.
2013-01-01
The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.
Post-processing of multi-model ensemble river discharge forecasts using censored EMOS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hemri, Stephan; Lisniak, Dmytro; Klein, Bastian
2014-05-01
When forecasting water levels and river discharge, ensemble weather forecasts are used as meteorological input to hydrologic process models. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the input ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the output ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, statistical post-processing is required in order to achieve calibrated and sharp predictions. Standard post-processing methods such as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) that have their origins in meteorological forecasting are now increasingly being used in hydrologic applications. Here we consider two sub-catchments of River Rhine, for which the forecasting system of the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) uses runoff data that are censored below predefined thresholds. To address this methodological challenge, we develop a censored EMOS method that is tailored to such data. The censored EMOS forecast distribution can be understood as a mixture of a point mass at the censoring threshold and a continuous part based on a truncated normal distribution. Parameter estimates of the censored EMOS model are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over the training dataset. Model fitting on Box-Cox transformed data allows us to take account of the positive skewness of river discharge distributions. In order to achieve realistic forecast scenarios over an entire range of lead-times, there is a need for multivariate extensions. To this end, we smooth the marginal parameter estimates over lead-times. In order to obtain realistic scenarios of discharge evolution over time, the marginal distributions have to be linked with each other. To this end, the multivariate dependence structure can either be adopted from the raw ensemble like in Ensemble Copula Coupling (ECC), or be estimated from observations in a training period. The censored EMOS model has been applied to multi-model ensemble forecasts issued on a daily basis over a period of three years. For the two catchments considered, this resulted in well calibrated and sharp forecast distributions over all lead-times from 1 to 114 h. Training observations tended to be better indicators for the dependence structure than the raw ensemble.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Szunyogh, Istvan; Kostelich, Eric J.; Gyarmati, G.; Patil, D. J.; Hunt, Brian R.; Kalnay, Eugenia; Ott, Edward; Yorke, James A.
2005-08-01
The accuracy and computational efficiency of the recently proposed local ensemble Kalman filter (LEKF) data assimilation scheme is investigated on a state-of-the-art operational numerical weather prediction model using simulated observations. The model selected for this purpose is the T62 horizontal- and 28-level vertical-resolution version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. The performance of the data assimilation system is assessed for different configurations of the LEKF scheme. It is shown that a modest size (40-member) ensemble is sufficient to track the evolution of the atmospheric state with high accuracy. For this ensemble size, the computational time per analysis is less than 9 min on a cluster of PCs. The analyses are extremely accurate in the mid-latitude storm track regions. The largest analysis errors, which are typically much smaller than the observational errors, occur where parametrized physical processes play important roles. Because these are also the regions where model errors are expected to be the largest, limitations of a real-data implementation of the ensemble-based Kalman filter may be easily mistaken for model errors. In light of these results, the importance of testing the ensemble-based Kalman filter data assimilation systems on simulated observations is stressed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Reggiani, P.; Weerts, A. H.
2013-09-01
The ECMWF temperature and precipitation ensemble reforecasts are evaluated for biases in the mean, spread and forecast probabilities, and how these biases propagate to streamflow ensemble forecasts. The forcing ensembles are subsequently post-processed to reduce bias and increase skill, and to investigate whether this leads to improved streamflow ensemble forecasts. Multiple post-processing techniques are used: quantile-to-quantile transform, linear regression with an assumption of bivariate normality and logistic regression. Both the raw and post-processed ensembles are run through a hydrologic model of the river Rhine to create streamflow ensembles. The results are compared using multiple verification metrics and skill scores: relative mean error, Brier skill score and its decompositions, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and its decomposition, and the ROC score. Verification of the streamflow ensembles is performed at multiple spatial scales: relatively small headwater basins, large tributaries and the Rhine outlet at Lobith. The streamflow ensembles are verified against simulated streamflow, in order to isolate the effects of biases in the forcing ensembles and any improvements therein. The results indicate that the forcing ensembles contain significant biases, and that these cascade to the streamflow ensembles. Some of the bias in the forcing ensembles is unconditional in nature; this was resolved by a simple quantile-to-quantile transform. Improvements in conditional bias and skill of the forcing ensembles vary with forecast lead time, amount, and spatial scale, but are generally moderate. The translation to streamflow forecast skill is further muted, and several explanations are considered, including limitations in the modelling of the space-time covariability of the forcing ensembles and the presence of storages.
The total probabilities from high-resolution ensemble forecasting of floods
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian
2015-04-01
Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used in meteorological modelling, to give an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. As meteorological ensemble forecasts often show some bias and dispersion errors, there is a need for calibration and post-processing of the ensembles. Typical methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). To make optimal predictions of floods along the stream network in hydrology, we can easily use the ensemble members as input to the hydrological models. However, some of the post-processing methods will need modifications when regionalizing the forecasts outside the calibration locations, as done by Hemri et al. (2013). We present a method for spatial regionalization of the post-processed forecasts based on EMOS and top-kriging (Skøien et al., 2006). We will also look into different methods for handling the non-normality of runoff and the effect on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005. Skøien, J. O., Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: Top-kriging - Geostatistics on stream networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10(2), 277-287, 2006.
Information flow in an atmospheric model and data assimilation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoon, Young-noh
2011-12-01
Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background state estimate with new observations, and the cycle repeats. In an ensemble Kalman filter, the probability distribution of the state estimate is represented by an ensemble of sample states, and the covariance matrix is calculated using the ensemble of sample states. We perform numerical experiments on toy atmospheric models introduced by Lorenz in 2005 to study the information flow in an atmospheric model in conjunction with ensemble Kalman filtering for data assimilation. This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part of this dissertation is about the propagation of information and the use of localization in ensemble Kalman filtering. If we can perform data assimilation locally by considering the observations and the state variables only near each grid point, then we can reduce the number of ensemble members necessary to cover the probability distribution of the state estimate, reducing the computational cost for the data assimilation and the model integration. Several localized versions of the ensemble Kalman filter have been proposed. Although tests applying such schemes have proven them to be extremely promising, a full basic understanding of the rationale and limitations of localization is currently lacking. We address these issues and elucidate the role played by chaotic wave dynamics in the propagation of information and the resulting impact on forecasts. The second part of this dissertation is about ensemble regional data assimilation using joint states. Assuming that we have a global model and a regional model of higher accuracy defined in a subregion inside the global region, we propose a data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model simultaneously, considering forecast information from both models. We show that our new data assimilation scheme produces better results both in the subregion and the global region than the data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model separately.
Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.
2017-12-01
A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.
Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Buckley, R.; Chiswell, S.; Kurzeja, R.
Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two releasemore » times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.« less
Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, Gemma J.; Lucas, Donald D.
2018-05-01
Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. We also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.
Student Reflection Papers on a Global Clinical Experience: A Qualitative Study.
Margolis, Carmi Z; Rohrbaugh, Robert M; Tsang, Luisa; Fleischer, Jennifer; Graham, Mark J; Kellett, Anne; Hafler, Janet P
Many of the 70,000 graduating US medical students [per year] have reported participating in a global health activity at some stage of medical school. This case study design provided a method for understanding the student's experience that included student's learning about culture, health disparities, exposure and reaction to a range of diseases actually encountered. The broad diversity of themes among students indicated that the GCE provided a flexible, personalized experience. We need to understand the student's experience in order to help design appropriate curricular experiences [and valid student assessment]. Our research aim was to analyze medical student reflection papers to understand how they viewed their Global Clinical Experience (GCE). A qualitative case study design was used to analyze student reflection papers. All 28 students who participated in a GCE from 2008-2010 and in 2014-2015 and submitted a reflection paper on completion of the GCE were eligible to participate in the study. One student did not submit a reflection paper and was not included in the study. All 27 papers were coded by paragraph for reflection and for themes. System of Care/Range of Care was mentioned most often, Aids to Adjustment Process was mentioned least. The theme, "Diseases," referred to any mention of a disease in the reflection papers, and 44 diseases were mentioned in the papers. The analysis for depth of reflection yielded the following data: Observation, 81/248 paragraphs; Observation and Interpretation, 130/248 paragraphs; and Observation, Interpretation, and Suggestions for change, 36/248 paragraphs; 9 reflection papers contained 27 separate accounts of a transformational experience. This study provided a method for understanding the student's experience that included student's learning about culture, health disparities, and exposure and reaction to a range of diseases actually encountered. The broad diversity of themes among students indicated that the GCE provided a flexible, personalized experience. How we might design a curriculum to facilitate transformational learning experiences needs further research. Copyright © 2017 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Avoiding the ensemble decorrelation problem using member-by-member post-processing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane
2014-05-01
Forecast calibration or post-processing has become a standard tool in atmospheric and climatological science due to the presence of systematic initial condition and model errors. For ensemble forecasts the most competitive methods derive from the assumption of a fixed ensemble distribution. However, when independently applying such 'statistical' methods at different locations, lead times or for multiple variables the correlation structure for individual ensemble members is destroyed. Instead of reastablishing the correlation structure as in Schefzik et al. (2013) we instead propose a calibration method that avoids such problem by correcting each ensemble member individually. Moreover, we analyse the fundamental mechanisms by which the probabilistic ensemble skill can be enhanced. In terms of continuous ranked probability score, our member-by-member approach amounts to skill gain that extends for lead times far beyond the error doubling time and which is as good as the one of the most competitive statistical approach, non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (Gneiting et al. 2005). Besides the conservation of correlation structure, additional benefits arise including the fact that higher-order ensemble moments like kurtosis and skewness are inherited from the uncorrected forecasts. Our detailed analysis is performed in the context of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and different simple models but the results extent succesfully to the ensemble forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2013, 2014) . References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Schefzik, R., T.L. Thorarinsdottir, and T. Gneiting, 2013: Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling. To appear in Statistical Science 28. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2013: Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012, Springer proceedings on complexity, XVI, p. 347-352. [4] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2014: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects, under review.
A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform vectors for global ensemble generation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deng, Guo; Tian, Hua; Li, Xiaoli; Chen, Jing; Gong, Jiandong; Jiao, Meiyan
2012-02-01
To compare the initial perturbation techniques using breeding vectors and ensemble transform vectors, three ensemble prediction systems using both initial perturbation methods but with different ensemble member sizes based on the spectral model T213/L31 are constructed at the National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration (NMC/CMA). A series of ensemble verification scores such as forecast skill of the ensemble mean, ensemble resolution, and ensemble reliability are introduced to identify the most important attributes of ensemble forecast systems. The results indicate that the ensemble transform technique is superior to the breeding vector method in light of the evaluation of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), which is a deterministic character of the ensemble mean, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and spread, which are of probabilistic attributes, and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and its decomposition. The advantage of the ensemble transform approach is attributed to its orthogonality among ensemble perturbations as well as its consistence with the data assimilation system. Therefore, this study may serve as a reference for configuration of the best ensemble prediction system to be used in operation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Yuanbing; Min, Jinzhong; Chen, Yaodeng; Huang, Xiang-Yu; Zeng, Mingjian; Li, Xin
2017-01-01
This study evaluates the performance of three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and a hybrid data assimilation system using time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event. The time-lagged ensembles are constructed by sampling from a moving time window of 3 h along a model trajectory, which is economical and easy to implement. The proposed hybrid data assimilation system introduces flow-dependent error covariance derived from time-lagged ensemble into variational cost function without significantly increasing computational cost. Single observation tests are performed to document characteristic of the hybrid system. The sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to ensemble covariance weight and localization scale is investigated. Additionally, the TLEn-Var is evaluated and compared to the ETKF(ensemble transformed Kalman filter)-based hybrid assimilation within a continuously cycling framework, through which new hybrid analyses are produced every 3 h over 10 days. The 24 h accumulated precipitation, moisture, wind are analyzed between 3DVar and the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles. Results show that model states and precipitation forecast skill are improved by the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles compared with 3DVar. Simulation of the precipitable water and structure of the wind are also improved. Cyclonic wind increments are generated near the rainfall center, leading to an improved precipitation forecast. This study indicates that the hybrid data assimilation using time-lagged ensembles seems like a viable alternative or supplement in the complex models for some weather service agencies that have limited computing resources to conduct large size of ensembles.
Decadal climate prediction in the large ensemble limit
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yeager, S. G.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Strand, G.; Lindsay, K. T.; Danabasoglu, G.; Karspeck, A. R.; Bates, S. C.; Meehl, G. A.
2017-12-01
In order to quantify the benefits of initialization for climate prediction on decadal timescales, two parallel sets of historical simulations are required: one "initialized" ensemble that incorporates observations of past climate states and one "uninitialized" ensemble whose internal climate variations evolve freely and without synchronicity. In the large ensemble limit, ensemble averaging isolates potentially predictable forced and internal variance components in the "initialized" set, but only the forced variance remains after averaging the "uninitialized" set. The ensemble size needed to achieve this variance decomposition, and to robustly distinguish initialized from uninitialized decadal predictions, remains poorly constrained. We examine a large ensemble (LE) of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments carried out using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This 40-member CESM-DP-LE set of experiments represents the "initialized" complement to the CESM large ensemble of 20th century runs (CESM-LE) documented in Kay et al. (2015). Both simulation sets share the same model configuration, historical radiative forcings, and large ensemble sizes. The twin experiments afford an unprecedented opportunity to explore the sensitivity of DP skill assessment, and in particular the skill enhancement associated with initialization, to ensemble size. This talk will highlight the benefits of a large ensemble size for initialized predictions of seasonal climate over land in the Atlantic sector as well as predictions of shifts in the likelihood of climate extremes that have large societal impact.
Selvarajan, S; Suganthi, A; Rajarajan, M
2018-06-01
A silver/polypyrrole/copper oxide (Ag/PPy/Cu 2 O) ternary nanocomposite was prepared by sonochemical and oxidative polymerization simple way, in which Cu 2 O was decorated with Ag nanoparticles, and covered by polyprrole (PPy) layer. The as prepared materials was characterized by UV-vis-spectroscopy (UV-vis), FT-IR, X-ray diffraction (XRD), thermo-gravimetric analysis (TGA), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with EDX, high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). Sensing of serotonin (5HT) was evaluated electrocatalyst using polypyrrole/glassy carbon electrode (PPy/GCE), polypyrrole/copper oxide/glassy carbon electrode (PPy/Cu 2 O/GCE) and silver/polypyrrole/copper oxide/glassy carbon electrode (Ag/PPy/Cu 2 O/GCE). The Ag/PPy/Cu 2 O/GCE was electrochemically treated in 0.1MPBS solution through cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). The peak current response increases linearly with 5-HT concentration from 0.01 to 250 µmol L -1 and the detection limit was found to be 0.0124 μmol L -1 . It exhibits high electrocatalytic activity, satisfactory repeatability, stability, fast response and good selectivity against potentially interfering species, which suggests its potential in the development of sensitive, selective, easy-operation and low-cost serotonin sensor for practical routine analyses. The proposed method is potential to expand the possible applied range of the nanocomposite material for detection of various concerned electro active substances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Obama - Xi Accord: A Need for Further Action
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tribett, W. R.; Hope, A. P.; Canty, T. P.; Salawitch, R. J.
2015-12-01
Presidents Barrack Obama of the United States and Jinping Xi of China recently announced a bilateral framework to reduce the total carbon emissions of their respective countries. The U.S. agreed to reduce annual carbon emissions such that by 2025, emissions would be 27% below 2005 levels. China agreed to achieve peak carbon emissions around 2030 coupled with a best effort to peak early. Here we analyze the implications of the Obama-Xi accord for total global carbon emissions (GCE) out to year 2060, using projections of population, economic growth, and carbon intensity for the rest of the world as well as various assumptions regarding how emissions from the U.S. and China will evolve after the timeframe of the Obama-Xi accord. Our GCE projections will be compared to those of the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The Obama-Xi accord is shown to be a meaningful first step: if followed, the actual GCE will likely fall below RCP 8.5 between now and 2060. The U.S., China, and rest of the world presently emit 4.5, 2.0, and 1.1 tonne of carbon per person per year (tpy), respectively. We show that if the world's nations adopt a strategy of "Contraction and Convergence", such that per capita emission for each country reaches 1.0 tpy by 2060, actual GCE will approach that of RCP 4.5 by year 2060. Such action may be needed to reduce the risk of the most dire global warming forecasts within IPCC AR5.
Peik-See, Teo; Pandikumar, Alagarsamy; Nay-Ming, Huang; Hong-Ngee, Lim; Sulaiman, Yusran
2014-01-01
The fabrication of an electrochemical sensor based on an iron oxide/graphene modified glassy carbon electrode (Fe3O4/rGO/GCE) and its simultaneous detection of dopamine (DA) and ascorbic acid (AA) is described here. The Fe3O4/rGO nanocomposite was synthesized via a simple, one step in-situ wet chemical method and characterized by different techniques. The presence of Fe3O4 nanoparticles on the surface of rGO sheets was confirmed by FESEM and TEM images. The electrochemical behavior of Fe3O4/rGO/GCE towards electrocatalytic oxidation of DA was investigated by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) analysis. The electrochemical studies revealed that the Fe3O4/rGO/GCE dramatically increased the current response against the DA, due to the synergistic effect emerged between Fe3O4 and rGO. This implies that Fe3O4/rGO/GCE could exhibit excellent electrocatalytic activity and remarkable electron transfer kinetics towards the oxidation of DA. Moreover, the modified sensor electrode portrayed sensitivity and selectivity for simultaneous determination of AA and DA. The observed DPVs response linearly depends on AA and DA concentration in the range of 1–9 mM and 0.5–100 μM, with correlation coefficients of 0.995 and 0.996, respectively. The detection limit of (S/N = 3) was found to be 0.42 and 0.12 μM for AA and DA, respectively. PMID:25195850
Peik-See, Teo; Pandikumar, Alagarsamy; Nay-Ming, Huang; Hong-Ngee, Lim; Sulaiman, Yusran
2014-08-19
The fabrication of an electrochemical sensor based on an iron oxide/graphene modified glassy carbon electrode (Fe3O4/rGO/GCE) and its simultaneous detection of dopamine (DA) and ascorbic acid (AA) is described here. The Fe3O4/rGO nanocomposite was synthesized via a simple, one step in-situ wet chemical method and characterized by different techniques. The presence of Fe3O4 nanoparticles on the surface of rGO sheets was confirmed by FESEM and TEM images. The electrochemical behavior of Fe3O4/rGO/GCE towards electrocatalytic oxidation of DA was investigated by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) analysis. The electrochemical studies revealed that the Fe3O4/rGO/GCE dramatically increased the current response against the DA, due to the synergistic effect emerged between Fe3O4 and rGO. This implies that Fe3O4/rGO/GCE could exhibit excellent electrocatalytic activity and remarkable electron transfer kinetics towards the oxidation of DA. Moreover, the modified sensor electrode portrayed sensitivity and selectivity for simultaneous determination of AA and DA. The observed DPVs response linearly depends on AA and DA concentration in the range of 1-9 mM and 0.5-100 µM, with correlation coefficients of 0.995 and 0.996, respectively. The detection limit of (S/N = 3) was found to be 0.42 and 0.12 µM for AA and DA, respectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Farias, Julianna Santos; Zanin, Hudson; Caldas, Adriana Silva; dos Santos, Clenilton Costa; Damos, Flavio Santos; de Cássia Silva Luz, Rita
2017-10-01
An electrochemical sensor based on functionalized multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTf) has been developed and applied for determination of anticancer drug flutamide in pharmaceutical and artificial urine samples. The electrode was prepared by modifying a glassy carbon electrode with MWCNTf, denoted herein as MWCNTf/GCE. The MWCNTf/GCE electrode exhibited high catalytic activity, high sensitivity, and high stability and was applicable over a wide concentration range for flutamide. The effects of the scan rate, pH, and nature of the electrolyte on the electrochemical behavior of flutamide on the MWCNTf/GCE were investigated. The results showed that this electrode presented the best square-wave voltammetric response to flutamide in Britton-Robinson buffer solution at pH 5.0 at frequency of 50 Hz and amplitude of 0.06 V. The proposed sensor presents a wide linear response range from concentration of 0.1 μmol L-1 up to 1000 μmol L-1 (or 27.6 μg L-1 up to 0.27 g L-1), with limit of detection, limit of quantification, and sensitivity of 0.03 μmol L-1, 0.1 μmol L-1, and 0.30 μA μmol-1 L, respectively. The MWCNTf/GCE electrode was successfully applied for determination of flutamide in pharmaceutical formulations and artificial urine samples, giving results in agreement with those obtained by a comparative method described in literature. A paired Student's t-test revealed no statistical difference between the reference and proposed method at 95% confidence level. The average recovery for fortified samples was 101 ± 1%.
Ghosh, Tanushree; Sarkar, Priyabrata; Turner, Anthony P F
2015-04-01
A new uric acid biosensor was constructed using ferrocene (Fc) induced electro-activated uricase (UOx) deposited within Nafion (Naf) on glassy carbon electrode (GCE). Electro-activation of UOx was successfully achieved by cyclic voltammetry through the electrostatic interaction of Fc with Trp residues within the hydrophobic pockets in UOx. The Naf/UOx/Fc composite was characterised by AFM, FTIR and EDX to ensure proper immobilisation. The interaction of Fc with the enzyme was analysed by Trp fluorescence spectroscopy and the α-helicity of the protein was measured by CD spectropolarimetry. The charge transfer resistance (Rct), calculated from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, for the modified sensor was lowered (1.39 kΩ) and the enzyme efficiency was enhanced by more than two fold as a result of Fc incorporation. Cyclic voltammetry, differential pulse voltammetry and amperometry all demonstrated the excellent response of the Naf/UOx/Fc/GCE biosensor to uric acid. The sensor system generated a linear response over a range of 500 nM to 600 μM UA, with a sensitivity and limit of detection of 1.78 μA μM(-1) and 230 nM, respectively. The heterogeneous rate constant (ks) for UA oxidation was much higher for Naf/UOx/Fc/GCE (1.0 × 10(-4) cm s(-1)) than for Naf/UOx/GCE (8.2 × 10(-5) cm s(-1)). Real samples, i.e. human blood, were tested for serum UA and the sensor yielded accurate results at a 95% confidence limit. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Interpolation of property-values between electron numbers is inconsistent with ensemble averaging
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Miranda-Quintana, Ramón Alain; Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M1; Ayers, Paul W.
2016-06-28
In this work we explore the physical foundations of models that study the variation of the ground state energy with respect to the number of electrons (E vs. N models), in terms of general grand-canonical (GC) ensemble formulations. In particular, we focus on E vs. N models that interpolate the energy between states with integer number of electrons. We show that if the interpolation of the energy corresponds to a GC ensemble, it is not differentiable. Conversely, if the interpolation is smooth, then it cannot be formulated as any GC ensemble. This proves that interpolation of electronic properties between integermore » electron numbers is inconsistent with any form of ensemble averaging. This emphasizes the role of derivative discontinuities and the critical role of a subsystem’s surroundings in determining its properties.« less
Glyph-based analysis of multimodal directional distributions in vector field ensembles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jarema, Mihaela; Demir, Ismail; Kehrer, Johannes; Westermann, Rüdiger
2015-04-01
Ensemble simulations are increasingly often performed in the geosciences in order to study the uncertainty and variability of model predictions. Describing ensemble data by mean and standard deviation can be misleading in case of multimodal distributions. We present first results of a glyph-based visualization of multimodal directional distributions in 2D and 3D vector ensemble data. Directional information on the circle/sphere is modeled using mixtures of probability density functions (pdfs), which enables us to characterize the distributions with relatively few parameters. The resulting mixture models are represented by 2D and 3D lobular glyphs showing direction, spread and strength of each principal mode of the distributions. A 3D extension of our approach is realized by means of an efficient GPU rendering technique. We demonstrate our method in the context of ensemble weather simulations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kutty, Govindan; Muraleedharan, Rohit; Kesarkar, Amit P.
2018-03-01
Uncertainties in the numerical weather prediction models are generally not well-represented in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) systems. The performance of an ensemble-based DA system becomes suboptimal, if the sources of error are undersampled in the forecast system. The present study examines the effect of accounting for model error treatments in the hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter—three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA system (hybrid) in the track forecast of two tropical cyclones viz. Hudhud and Thane, formed over the Bay of Bengal, using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model. We investigated the effect of two types of model error treatment schemes and their combination on the hybrid DA system; (i) multiphysics approach, which uses different combination of cumulus, microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes, (ii) stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, which perturbs the horizontal wind and potential temperature tendencies, (iii) a combination of both multiphysics and SKEB scheme. Substantial improvements are noticed in the track positions of both the cyclones, when flow-dependent ensemble covariance is used in 3DVAR framework. Explicit model error representation is found to be beneficial in treating the underdispersive ensembles. Among the model error schemes used in this study, a combination of multiphysics and SKEB schemes has outperformed the other two schemes with improved track forecast for both the tropical cyclones.
Improving precision of glomerular filtration rate estimating model by ensemble learning.
Liu, Xun; Li, Ningshan; Lv, Linsheng; Fu, Yongmei; Cheng, Cailian; Wang, Caixia; Ye, Yuqiu; Li, Shaomin; Lou, Tanqi
2017-11-09
Accurate assessment of kidney function is clinically important, but estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) by regression are imprecise. We hypothesized that ensemble learning could improve precision. A total of 1419 participants were enrolled, with 1002 in the development dataset and 417 in the external validation dataset. GFR was independently estimated from age, sex and serum creatinine using an artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), regression, and ensemble learning. GFR was measured by 99mTc-DTPA renal dynamic imaging calibrated with dual plasma sample 99mTc-DTPA GFR. Mean measured GFRs were 70.0 ml/min/1.73 m 2 in the developmental and 53.4 ml/min/1.73 m 2 in the external validation cohorts. In the external validation cohort, precision was better in the ensemble model of the ANN, SVM and regression equation (IQR = 13.5 ml/min/1.73 m 2 ) than in the new regression model (IQR = 14.0 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , P < 0.001). The precision of ensemble learning was the best of the three models, but the models had similar bias and accuracy. The median difference ranged from 2.3 to 3.7 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , 30% accuracy ranged from 73.1 to 76.0%, and P was > 0.05 for all comparisons of the new regression equation and the other new models. An ensemble learning model including three variables, the average ANN, SVM, and regression equation values, was more precise than the new regression model. A more complex ensemble learning strategy may further improve GFR estimates.
A common fallacy in climate model evaluation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Tachiiri, K.
2012-04-01
We discuss the assessment of model ensembles such as that arising from the CMIP3 coordinated multi-model experiments. An important aspect of this is not merely the closeness of the models to observations in absolute terms but also the reliability of the ensemble spread as an indication of uncertainty. In this context, it has been widely argued that the multi-model ensemble of opportunity is insufficiently broad to adequately represent uncertainties regarding future climate change. For example, the IPCC AR4 summarises the consensus with the sentence: "Those studies also suggest that the current AOGCMs may not cover the full range of uncertainty for climate sensitivity." Similar claims have been made in the literature for other properties of the climate system, including the transient climate response and efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Comparison of model outputs with observations of the climate system forms an essential component of model assessment and is crucial for building our confidence in model predictions. However, methods for undertaking this comparison are not always clearly justified and understood. Here we show that the popular approach which forms the basis for the above claims, of comparing the ensemble spread to a so-called "observationally-constrained pdf", can be highly misleading. Such a comparison will almost certainly result in disagreement, but in reality tells us little about the performance of the ensemble. We present an alternative approach based on an assessment of the predictive performance of the ensemble, and show how it may lead to very different, and rather more encouraging, conclusions. We additionally outline some necessary conditions for an ensemble (or more generally, a probabilistic prediction) to be challenged by an observation.
Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one.
Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W; Rötter, Reimund P; Boote, Kenneth J; Ruane, Alex C; Thorburn, Peter J; Cammarano, Davide; Hatfield, Jerry L; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K; Angulo, Carlos; Basso, Bruno; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Biernath, Christian; Brisson, Nadine; Challinor, Andrew J; Doltra, Jordi; Gayler, Sebastian; Goldberg, Richie; Grant, Robert F; Heng, Lee; Hooker, Josh; Hunt, Leslie A; Ingwersen, Joachim; Izaurralde, Roberto C; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Müller, Christoph; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E; Osborne, Tom M; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Semenov, Mikhail A; Shcherbak, Iurii; Steduto, Pasquale; Stöckle, Claudio O; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Travasso, Maria; Waha, Katharina; White, Jeffrey W; Wolf, Joost
2015-02-01
Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: More Models are Better than One
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund P.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Cammarano, Davide;
2015-01-01
Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: Many Models are Better than One
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund P.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Cammarano, Davide;
2015-01-01
Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop model scan give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 2438 for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems.
Ranganayaki, V; Deepa, S N
2016-01-01
Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature.
A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Limber, Patrick; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Erikson, Li
2018-01-01
Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two‐fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 – 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/‐ 5 – 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings
An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems
Ranganayaki, V.; Deepa, S. N.
2016-01-01
Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature. PMID:27034973
Linear Reconstruction of Non-Stationary Image Ensembles Incorporating Blur and Noise Models
1998-03-01
for phase distortions due to noise which leads to less deblurring as noise increases [41]. In contrast, the vector Wiener filter incorporates some a...AFIT/DS/ENG/98- 06 Linear Reconstruction of Non-Stationary Image Ensembles Incorporating Blur and Noise Models DISSERTATION Stephen D. Ford Captain...Dissertation 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS LINEAR RECONSTRUCTION OF NON-STATIONARY IMAGE ENSEMBLES INCORPORATING BLUR AND NOISE MODELS 6. AUTHOR(S
The Canadian seasonal forecast and the APCC exchange.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Archambault, B.; Fontecilla, J.; Kharin, V.; Bourgouin, P.; Ashok, K.; Lee, D.
2009-05-01
In this talk, we will first describe the Canadian seasonal forecast system. This system uses a 4 model ensemble approach with each of these models generating a 10 members ensemble. Multi-model issues related to this system will be describes. Secondly, we will describe an international multi-system initiative. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is a forum for 21 Pacific Rim countries or regions including Canada. The APEC Climate Center (APCC) provides seasonal forecasts to their regional climate centers with a Multi Model Ensemble (MME) approach. The APCC MME is based on 13 ensemble prediction systems from different institutions including MSC(Canada), NCEP(USA), COLA(USA), KMA(Korea), JMA(Japan), BOM(Australia) and others. In this presentation, we will describe the basics of this international cooperation.
Spatio-temporal behaviour of medium-range ensemble forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kipling, Zak; Primo, Cristina; Charlton-Perez, Andrew
2010-05-01
Using the recently-developed mean-variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with the TIGGE archive of medium-range ensemble forecasts from nine different centres, we present an analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of their perturbations, and show how the differences between models and perturbation techniques can explain the shape of their characteristic MVL curves. We also consider the use of the MVL diagram to compare the growth of perturbations within the ensemble with the growth of the forecast error, showing that there is a much closer correspondence for some models than others. We conclude by looking at how the MVL technique might assist in selecting models for inclusion in a multi-model ensemble, and suggest an experiment to test its potential in this context.
Application of Ensemble Detection and Analysis to Modeling Uncertainty in Non Stationary Process
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Racette, Paul
2010-01-01
Characterization of non stationary and nonlinear processes is a challenge in many engineering and scientific disciplines. Climate change modeling and projection, retrieving information from Doppler measurements of hydrometeors, and modeling calibration architectures and algorithms in microwave radiometers are example applications that can benefit from improvements in the modeling and analysis of non stationary processes. Analyses of measured signals have traditionally been limited to a single measurement series. Ensemble Detection is a technique whereby mixing calibrated noise produces an ensemble measurement set. The collection of ensemble data sets enables new methods for analyzing random signals and offers powerful new approaches to studying and analyzing non stationary processes. Derived information contained in the dynamic stochastic moments of a process will enable many novel applications.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rowley, C. D.; Hogan, P. J.; Martin, P.; Thoppil, P.; Wei, M.
2017-12-01
An extended range ensemble forecast system is being developed in the US Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC), and a global ocean ensemble generation capability to represent uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions has been developed. At extended forecast times, the uncertainty due to the model error overtakes the initial condition as the primary source of forecast uncertainty. Recently, stochastic parameterization or stochastic forcing techniques have been applied to represent the model error in research and operational atmospheric, ocean, and coupled ensemble forecasts. A simple stochastic forcing technique has been developed for application to US Navy high resolution regional and global ocean models, for use in ocean-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-wave ensemble forecast systems. Perturbation forcing is added to the tendency equations for state variables, with the forcing defined by random 3- or 4-dimensional fields with horizontal, vertical, and temporal correlations specified to characterize different possible kinds of error. Here, we demonstrate the stochastic forcing in regional and global ensemble forecasts with varying perturbation amplitudes and length and time scales, and assess the change in ensemble skill measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics.
Evaluation of an Ensemble Dispersion Calculation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Draxler, Roland R.
2003-02-01
A Lagrangian transport and dispersion model was modified to generate multiple simulations from a single meteorological dataset. Each member of the simulation was computed by assuming a ±1-gridpoint shift in the horizontal direction and a ±250-m shift in the vertical direction of the particle position, with respect to the meteorological data. The configuration resulted in 27 ensemble members. Each member was assumed to have an equal probability. The model was tested by creating an ensemble of daily average air concentrations for 3 months at 75 measurement locations over the eastern half of the United States during the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX). Two generic graphical displays were developed to summarize the ensemble prediction and the resulting concentration probabilities for a specific event: a probability-exceed plot and a concentration-probability plot. Although a cumulative distribution of the ensemble probabilities compared favorably with the measurement data, the resulting distribution was not uniform. This result was attributed to release height sensitivity. The trajectory ensemble approach accounts for about 41%-47% of the variance in the measurement data. This residual uncertainty is caused by other model and data errors that are not included in the ensemble design.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Hongyue; Luo, Shuai; Jin, Ran; He, Zhen
2017-07-01
Mathematical modeling is an important tool to investigate the performance of microbial fuel cell (MFC) towards its optimized design. To overcome the shortcoming of traditional MFC models, an ensemble model is developed through integrating both engineering model and statistical analytics for the extrapolation scenarios in this study. Such an ensemble model can reduce laboring effort in parameter calibration and require fewer measurement data to achieve comparable accuracy to traditional statistical model under both the normal and extreme operation regions. Based on different weight between current generation and organic removal efficiency, the ensemble model can give recommended input factor settings to achieve the best current generation and organic removal efficiency. The model predicts a set of optimal design factors for the present tubular MFCs including the anode flow rate of 3.47 mL min-1, organic concentration of 0.71 g L-1, and catholyte pumping flow rate of 14.74 mL min-1 to achieve the peak current at 39.2 mA. To maintain 100% organic removal efficiency, the anode flow rate and organic concentration should be controlled lower than 1.04 mL min-1 and 0.22 g L-1, respectively. The developed ensemble model can be potentially modified to model other types of MFCs or bioelectrochemical systems.
Jiang, Lin; Ding, Yaping; Jiang, Feng; Li, Li; Mo, Fan
2014-06-23
A nitrogen-doped graphene/carbon nanotubes (NGR-NCNTs) nanocomposite was employed into the study of the electrochemical sensor via electrodeposition for the first time. The morphology and structure of NGR-NCNTs nanocomposite were investigated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM), respectively. Meanwhile, the electrochemical performance of the glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with electrodeposited NGR-NCNTs (ENGR-NCNTs/GCE) towards caffeine (CAF) and vanillin (VAN) determination was demonstrated by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and square wave voltammetry (SWV). Under optimal condition, ENGR-NCNTs/GCE exhibited a wide linearity of 0.06-50 μM for CAF and 0.01-10 μM for VAN with detection limits of 0.02 μM and 3.3×10(-3) μM, respectively. Furthermore, the application of the proposed sensor in food products was proven to be practical and reliable. The desirable results show that the ENGR-NCNTs nanocomposite has promising potential in electrocatalytic biosensor application. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Dispersion of bamboo type multi-wall carbon nanotubes in calf-thymus double stranded DNA.
Primo, Emiliano N; Cañete-Rosales, Paulina; Bollo, Soledad; Rubianes, María D; Rivas, Gustavo A
2013-08-01
We report for the first time the use of double stranded calf-thymus DNA (dsDNA) to successfully disperse bamboo-like multi-walled carbon nanotubes (bCNT). The dispersion and the modified electrodes were studied by different spectroscopic, microscopic and electrochemical techniques. The drastic treatment for dispersing the bCNT (45min sonication in a 50% (v/v) ethanol:water solution), produces a partial denaturation and a decrease in the length of dsDNA that facilitates the dispersion of CNT and makes possible an efficient electron transfer of guanine residues to the electrode. A critical analysis of the influence of different experimental conditions on the efficiency of the dispersion and on the performance of glassy carbon electrodes (GCE) modified with bCNT-dsDNA dispersion is also reported. The electron transfer of redox probes and guanine residues was more efficient at GCE modified with bCNT dispersed in dsDNA than at GCE modified with hollow CNT (hCNT) dispersed in dsDNA, demonstrating the importance of the presence of bCNT. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
2018-01-01
Posttranslational modifications resulting from oxidation of proteins (Ox-PTMs) are present intracellularly under conditions of oxidative stress as well as basal conditions. In the past, these modifications were thought to be generic protein damage, but it has become increasingly clear that Ox-PTMs can have specific physiological effects. It is an arduous task to distinguish between the two cases, as multiple Ox-PTMs occur simultaneously on the same protein, convoluting analysis. Genetic code expansion (GCE) has emerged as a powerful tool to overcome this challenge as it allows for the site-specific incorporation of an Ox-PTM into translated protein. The resulting homogeneously modified protein products can then be rigorously characterized for the effects of individual Ox-PTMs. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of GCE as they relate to the field of oxidative stress and Ox-PTMs. An overview of the Ox-PTMs that have been genetically encoded and applications of GCE to the study of Ox-PTMs, including antibody validation and therapeutic development, is described. PMID:29849913
Zhu, Wencai; Huang, Hui; Gao, Xiaochun; Ma, Houyi
2014-12-01
Poly(4-aminobenzoic acid)/electrochemically reduced graphene oxide composite film modified glassy carbon electrodes (4-ABA/ERGO/GCEs) were fabricated by a two-step electrochemical method. The electrochemical behavior of acetaminophen at the modified electrode was investigated by means of cyclic voltammetry. The results indicated that 4-ABA/ERGO composite films possessed excellent electrocatalytic activity towards the oxidation of acetaminophen. The electrochemical reaction of acetaminophen at 4-ABA/ERGO/GCE is proved to be a surface-controlled process involving the same number of protons and electrons. The voltammetric determination of acetaminophen performed with the 4-ABA/ERGO modified electrode presents a good linearity in the range of 0.1-65 μM with a low detection limit of 0.01 μM (S/N=3). In the case of using the 4-ABA/ERGO/GCE, acetaminophen and dopamine can be simultaneously determined without mutual interference. Furthermore, the 4-ABA/ERGO/GCE has good reproducibility and stability, and can be used to determine acetaminophen in tablets. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shi, Yuting; Wang, Jin; Li, Shumin; Yan, Bo; Xu, Hui; Zhang, Ke; Du, Yukou
2017-07-01
In this work, a sensitive and novel method for determining uric acid (UA) has been developed, in which the glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was modified with electrodeposition Au nanoparticles and used to monitor the concentration of UA with the assistant of visible light illumination. The morphology of the Au nanoparticles deposited on GCE surface were characterized by scanning electron microscope (SEM) and the nanoparticles were found to be well-dispersed spheres with the average diameter approaching 26.1 nm. A series of cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) measurements have revealed that the introduction of visible light can greatly enhance both the strength and stability of response current due to the surface plasmon resonance (SPR). Specifically, the DPV showed a linear relationship between peak current and UA concentration in the range of 2.8 to 57.5 μM with the equation of I pa (μA) = 0.0121 c UA (μM) + 0.3122 ( R 2 = 0.9987). Herein, the visible light illuminated Au/GCE possesses a potential to be a sensitive electrochemical sensor in the future.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lam, D. T.; Kerrou, J.; Benabderrahmane, H.; Perrochet, P.
2017-12-01
The calibration of groundwater flow models in transient state can be motivated by the expected improved characterization of the aquifer hydraulic properties, especially when supported by a rich transient dataset. In the prospect of setting up a calibration strategy for a variably-saturated transient groundwater flow model of the area around the ANDRA's Bure Underground Research Laboratory, we wish to take advantage of the long hydraulic head and flowrate time series collected near and at the access shafts in order to help inform the model hydraulic parameters. A promising inverse approach for such high-dimensional nonlinear model, and which applicability has been illustrated more extensively in other scientific fields, could be an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm initially developed for a reservoir engineering problem. Furthermore, the ensemble-based stochastic framework will allow to address to some extent the uncertainty of the calibration for a subsequent analysis of a flow process dependent prediction. By assimilating the available data in one single step, this method iteratively updates each member of an initial ensemble of stochastic realizations of parameters until the minimization of an objective function. However, as it is well known for ensemble-based Kalman methods, this correction computed from approximations of covariance matrices is most efficient when the ensemble realizations are multi-Gaussian. As shown by the comparison of the updated ensemble mean obtained for our simplified synthetic model of 2D vertical flow by using either multi-Gaussian or multipoint simulations of parameters, the ensemble smoother fails to preserve the initial connectivity of the facies and the parameter bimodal distribution. Given the geological structures depicted by the multi-layered geological model built for the real case, our goal is to find how to still best leverage the performance of the ensemble smoother while using an initial ensemble of conditional multi-Gaussian simulations or multipoint simulations as conceptually consistent as possible. Performance of the algorithm including additional steps to help mitigate the effects of non-Gaussian patterns, such as Gaussian anamorphosis, or resampling of facies from the training image using updated local probability constraints will be assessed.
Application Bayesian Model Averaging method for ensemble system for Poland
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guzikowski, Jakub; Czerwinska, Agnieszka
2014-05-01
The aim of the project is to evaluate methods for generating numerical ensemble weather prediction using a meteorological data from The Weather Research & Forecasting Model and calibrating this data by means of Bayesian Model Averaging (WRF BMA) approach. We are constructing height resolution short range ensemble forecasts using meteorological data (temperature) generated by nine WRF's models. WRF models have 35 vertical levels and 2.5 km x 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The main emphasis is that the used ensemble members has a different parameterization of the physical phenomena occurring in the boundary layer. To calibrate an ensemble forecast we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. The BMA predictive Probability Density Function (PDF) is a weighted average of predictive PDFs associated with each individual ensemble member, with weights that reflect the member's relative skill. For test we chose a case with heat wave and convective weather conditions in Poland area from 23th July to 1st August 2013. From 23th July to 29th July 2013 temperature oscillated below or above 30 Celsius degree in many meteorology stations and new temperature records were added. During this time the growth of the hospitalized patients with cardiovascular system problems was registered. On 29th July 2013 an advection of moist tropical air masses was recorded in the area of Poland causes strong convection event with mesoscale convection system (MCS). MCS caused local flooding, damage to the transport infrastructure, destroyed buildings, trees and injuries and direct threat of life. Comparison of the meteorological data from ensemble system with the data recorded on 74 weather stations localized in Poland is made. We prepare a set of the model - observations pairs. Then, the obtained data from single ensemble members and median from WRF BMA system are evaluated on the basis of the deterministic statistical error Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE). To evaluation probabilistic data The Brier Score (BS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) were used. Finally comparison between BMA calibrated data and data from ensemble members will be displayed.
Blanton, Brian; Dresback, Kendra; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randy; Vergara, Humberto; Hong, Yang; Leonardo, Nicholas; Davidson, Rachel; Nozick, Linda; Wachtendorf, Tricia
2018-04-25
Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.
Reciprocity in directed networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yin, Mei; Zhu, Lingjiong
2016-04-01
Reciprocity is an important characteristic of directed networks and has been widely used in the modeling of World Wide Web, email, social, and other complex networks. In this paper, we take a statistical physics point of view and study the limiting entropy and free energy densities from the microcanonical ensemble, the canonical ensemble, and the grand canonical ensemble whose sufficient statistics are given by edge and reciprocal densities. The sparse case is also studied for the grand canonical ensemble. Extensions to more general reciprocal models including reciprocal triangle and star densities will likewise be discussed.
A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.
2012-12-01
The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique. Initial perturbations are integrated forward for a short time period and then rescaled and added to the initial state again. Iterating this rapid breeding cycle provides estimates for the initial uncertainty structure (or local Lyapunov vectors) given a specific norm. To avoid that all ensemble perturbations converge towards the leading local Lyapunov vector we apply an ensemble transform variant to orthogonalize the perturbations in the sub-space spanned by the ensemble. By choosing different kind of norms to measure perturbation growth, this technique allows for estimating uncertainty patterns targeted at specific sources of errors (e.g. convection, turbulence). With case study experiments we show applications of the self-breeding method for different sources of uncertainty and different horizontal scales.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wolff, J.; Jankov, I.; Beck, J.; Carson, L.; Frimel, J.; Harrold, M.; Jiang, H.
2016-12-01
It is well known that global and regional numerical weather prediction ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident ensemble forecasts. Typical approaches to alleviate this problem include the use of multiple dynamic cores, multiple physics suite configurations, or a combination of the two. While these approaches may produce desirable results, they have practical and theoretical deficiencies and are more difficult and costly to maintain. An active area of research that promotes a more unified and sustainable system for addressing the deficiencies in ensemble modeling is the use of stochastic physics to represent model-related uncertainty. Stochastic approaches include Stochastic Parameter Perturbations (SPP), Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), Stochastic Perturbation of Physics Tendencies (SPPT), or some combination of all three. The focus of this study is to assess the model performance within a convection-permitting ensemble at 3-km grid spacing across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) when using stochastic approaches. For this purpose, the test utilized a single physics suite configuration based on the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, with ensemble members produced by employing stochastic methods. Parameter perturbations were employed in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model and Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary layer scheme. Results will be presented in terms of bias, error, spread, skill, accuracy, reliability, and sharpness using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. Due to the high level of complexity of running a frequently updating (hourly), high spatial resolution (3 km), large domain (CONUS) ensemble system, extensive high performance computing (HPC) resources were needed to meet this objective. Supercomputing resources were provided through the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Strategic Capability (NSC) project support, allowing for a more extensive set of tests over multiple seasons, consequently leading to more robust results. Through the use of these stochastic innovations and powerful supercomputing at NCAR, further insights and advancements in ensemble forecasting at convection-permitting scales will be possible.
Assessment of Surface Air Temperature over China Using Multi-criterion Model Ensemble Framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, J.; Zhu, Q.; Su, L.; He, X.; Zhang, X.
2017-12-01
The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are designed to simulate the present climate and project future trends. It has been noticed that the performances of GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over different regions. Model ensemble techniques have been developed to post-process the GCMs' outputs and improve their prediction reliabilities. To evaluate the performances of GCMs, root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient, and uncertainty are commonly used statistical measures. However, the simultaneous achievements of these satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed when using many model ensemble techniques. Meanwhile, uncertainties and future scenarios are critical for Water-Energy management and operation. In this study, a new multi-model ensemble framework was proposed. It uses a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm, termed Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization with Principle Component Analysis and Crowding Distance (MOSPD), to derive optimal GCM ensembles and demonstrate the trade-offs among various solutions. Such trade-off information was further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistical measures. A case study was conducted to optimize the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over seven geographical regions of China for the historical period (1900-2005) and future projection (2006-2100). The results showed that the ensemble solutions derived with MOSPD algorithm are superior over the simple model average and any single model output during the historical simulation period. For the future prediction, the proposed ensemble framework identified that the largest SAT change would occur in the South Central China under RCP 2.6 scenario, North Eastern China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and North Western China under RCP 8.5 scenario, while the smallest SAT change would occur in the Inner Mongolia under RCP 2.6 scenario, South Central China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and South Central China under RCP 8.5 scenario.
EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei
We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based onmore » ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.« less
Evaluation of an ensemble of genetic models for prediction of a quantitative trait.
Milton, Jacqueline N; Steinberg, Martin H; Sebastiani, Paola
2014-01-01
Many genetic markers have been shown to be associated with common quantitative traits in genome-wide association studies. Typically these associated genetic markers have small to modest effect sizes and individually they explain only a small amount of the variability of the phenotype. In order to build a genetic prediction model without fitting a multiple linear regression model with possibly hundreds of genetic markers as predictors, researchers often summarize the joint effect of risk alleles into a genetic score that is used as a covariate in the genetic prediction model. However, the prediction accuracy can be highly variable and selecting the optimal number of markers to be included in the genetic score is challenging. In this manuscript we present a strategy to build an ensemble of genetic prediction models from data and we show that the ensemble-based method makes the challenge of choosing the number of genetic markers more amenable. Using simulated data with varying heritability and number of genetic markers, we compare the predictive accuracy and inclusion of true positive and false positive markers of a single genetic prediction model and our proposed ensemble method. The results show that the ensemble of genetic models tends to include a larger number of genetic variants than a single genetic model and it is more likely to include all of the true genetic markers. This increased sensitivity is obtained at the price of a lower specificity that appears to minimally affect the predictive accuracy of the ensemble.
Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.
2017-12-01
Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miyoshi, Takemasa; Kunii, Masaru
2012-03-01
The local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and real observations are assimilated to assess the newly-developed WRF-LETKF system. The WRF model is a widely-used mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, and the LETKF is an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm particularly efficient in parallel computer architecture. This study aims to provide the basis of future research on mesoscale data assimilation using the WRF-LETKF system, an additional testbed to the existing EnKF systems with the WRF model used in the previous studies. The particular LETKF system adopted in this study is based on the system initially developed in 2004 and has been continuously improved through theoretical studies and wide applications to many kinds of dynamical models including realistic geophysical models. Most recent and important improvements include an adaptive covariance inflation scheme which considers the spatial and temporal inhomogeneity of inflation parameters. Experiments show that the LETKF successfully assimilates real observations and that adaptive inflation is advantageous. Additional experiments with various ensemble sizes show that using more ensemble members improves the analyses consistently.
Estimation of the uncertainty of a climate model using an ensemble simulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barth, A.; Mathiot, P.; Goosse, H.
2012-04-01
The atmospheric forcings play an important role in the study of the ocean and sea-ice dynamics of the Southern Ocean. Error in the atmospheric forcings will inevitably result in uncertain model results. The sensitivity of the model results to errors in the atmospheric forcings are studied with ensemble simulations using multivariate perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields. The numerical ocean model used is the NEMO-LIM in a global configuration with an horizontal resolution of 2°. NCEP reanalyses are used to provide air temperature and wind data to force the ocean model over the last 50 years. A climatological mean is used to prescribe relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. In a first step, the model results is compared with OSTIA SST and OSI SAF sea ice concentration of the southern hemisphere. The seasonal behavior of the RMS difference and bias in SST and ice concentration is highlighted as well as the regions with relatively high RMS errors and biases such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and near the ice-edge. Ensemble simulations are performed to statistically characterize the model error due to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcings. Such information is a crucial element for future data assimilation experiments. Ensemble simulations are performed with perturbed air temperature and wind forcings. A Fourier decomposition of the NCEP wind vectors and air temperature for 2007 is used to generate ensemble perturbations. The perturbations are scaled such that the resulting ensemble spread matches approximately the RMS differences between the satellite SST and sea ice concentration. The ensemble spread and covariance are analyzed for the minimum and maximum sea ice extent. It is shown that errors in the atmospheric forcings can extend to several hundred meters in depth near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane
2013-04-01
We develop post-processing or calibration approaches based on linear regression that make ensemble forecasts more reliable. We enforce climatological reliability in the sense that the total variability of the prediction is equal to the variability of the observations. Second, we impose ensemble reliability such that the spread around the ensemble mean of the observation coincides with the one of the ensemble members. In general the attractors of the model and reality are inhomogeneous. Therefore ensemble spread displays a variability not taken into account in standard post-processing methods. We overcome this by weighting the ensemble by a variable error. The approaches are tested in the context of the Lorenz 96 model (Lorenz 1996). The forecasts become more reliable at short lead times as reflected by a flatter rank histogram. Our best method turns out to be superior to well-established methods like EVMOS (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2011) and Nonhomogeneous Gaussian Regression (Gneiting et al., 2005). References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Lorenz, E. N., 1996: Predictability - a problem partly solved. Proceedings, Seminar on Predictability ECMWF. 1, 1-18. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2011: Post-processing through linear regression, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 147.
Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.
2012-12-01
The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.
Bayesian Hierarchical Model Characterization of Model Error in Ocean Data Assimilation and Forecasts
2013-09-30
proof-of-concept results comparing a BHM surface wind ensemble with the increments in the surface momentum flux control vector in a four-dimensional...Surface Momentum Flux Ensembles from Summaries of BHM Winds (Mediterranean) include ocean current effect Td...Bayesian Hierarchical Model to provide surface momentum flux ensembles. 3 Figure 2: Domain of interest : squares indicate spatial locations where
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Žabkar, Rahela; Koračin, Darko; Rakovec, Jože
2013-10-01
A high ozone (O3) concentrations episode during a heat wave event in the Northeastern Mediterranean was investigated using the WRF/Chem model. To understand the major model uncertainties and errors as well as the impacts of model inputs on the model accuracy, an ensemble modelling experiment was conducted. The 51-member ensemble was designed by varying model physics parameterization options (PBL schemes with different surface layer and land-surface modules, and radiation schemes); chemical initial and boundary conditions; anthropogenic and biogenic emission inputs; and model domain setup and resolution. The main impacts of the geographical and emission characteristics of three distinct regions (suburban Mediterranean, continental urban, and continental rural) on the model accuracy and O3 predictions were investigated. In spite of the large ensemble set size, the model generally failed to simulate the extremes; however, as expected from probabilistic forecasting the ensemble spread improved results with respect to extremes compared to the reference run. Noticeable model nighttime overestimations at the Mediterranean and some urban and rural sites can be explained by too strong simulated winds, which reduce the impact of dry deposition and O3 titration in the near surface layers during the nighttime. Another possible explanation could be inaccuracies in the chemical mechanisms, which are suggested also by model insensitivity to variations in the nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions. Major impact factors for underestimations of the daytime O3 maxima at the Mediterranean and some rural sites include overestimation of the PBL depths, a lack of information on forest fires, too strong surface winds, and also possible inaccuracies in biogenic emissions. This numerical experiment with the ensemble runs also provided guidance on an optimum model setup and input data.
The bioenergetic consequences of invasive-induced food web disruption to Lake Ontario alewives
Stewart, Thomas J.; O'Gorman, Robert; Sprules, W. Gary; Lantry, B.F.
2010-01-01
Alewives Alosa pseudoharengus are the dominant prey fish in Lake Ontario, and their response to ecological change can alter the structure and function of the Lake Ontario food web. Using stochastic population-based bioenergetic models of Lake Ontario alewives for 1987–1991 and 2001–2005, we evaluated changes to alewife production, consumption, and associated bioenergetic ratios after invasive-induced food web disruption. After the disruption, mean biomass of alewives declined from 28.0 to 14.6 g/m2, production declined from 40.8 to 13.6 g·m−2·year−1, and consumption declined from 342.1 to 137.2 g·m−2·year−1, but bootstrapping of error sources suggested that the changes were not statistically significant. Population-based bioenergetic ratios of production to biomass (P/B ratio), total consumption to biomass (Q/B ratio), and production efficiency did not change. Pathways of energy flow measured as prey-group-specific Q/B ratios changed significantly between the two time periods for invasive predatory cladocerans (from 0.6 to 1.3), Mysis diluviana (from 0.4 to 2.5), and other prey (from 0.8 to 0.1), but the observed decline in the zooplankton Q/B ratio (from 10.6 to 5.5) was not significant. Gross production efficiency did not change; values ranged from 8% to 15%. Age-group mean gross conversion efficiency (GCE) declined with age; GCE ranged from 7.5% to 11.0% for yearlings, was approximately 5% for age-2 alewives, and was less than 2% for age-3 and older alewives. The GCE increased significantly between the time periods for yearling alewives. Our analyses support the hypothesis that after 2003, alewives could not sustain their growth while feeding on zooplankton closer to shore. Modeling of observed spatial variation in diet and alternative occupied temperatures demonstrates the potential for reducing consumption by alewives. Our results suggest that Lake Ontario alewives can exploit spatial heterogeneity in resource patches and thermal habitat to partially mitigate the effects of food web disruption. Fish management implications are discussed.
Modelling dynamics in protein crystal structures by ensemble refinement
Burnley, B Tom; Afonine, Pavel V; Adams, Paul D; Gros, Piet
2012-01-01
Single-structure models derived from X-ray data do not adequately account for the inherent, functionally important dynamics of protein molecules. We generated ensembles of structures by time-averaged refinement, where local molecular vibrations were sampled by molecular-dynamics (MD) simulation whilst global disorder was partitioned into an underlying overall translation–libration–screw (TLS) model. Modeling of 20 protein datasets at 1.1–3.1 Å resolution reduced cross-validated Rfree values by 0.3–4.9%, indicating that ensemble models fit the X-ray data better than single structures. The ensembles revealed that, while most proteins display a well-ordered core, some proteins exhibit a ‘molten core’ likely supporting functionally important dynamics in ligand binding, enzyme activity and protomer assembly. Order–disorder changes in HIV protease indicate a mechanism of entropy compensation for ordering the catalytic residues upon ligand binding by disordering specific core residues. Thus, ensemble refinement extracts dynamical details from the X-ray data that allow a more comprehensive understanding of structure–dynamics–function relationships. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00311.001 PMID:23251785
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Milroy, Daniel J.; Baker, Allison H.; Hammerling, Dorit M.; Jessup, Elizabeth R.
2018-02-01
The Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) suite was developed as an alternative to requiring bitwise identical output for quality assurance. This objective test provides a statistical measurement of consistency between an accepted ensemble created by small initial temperature perturbations and a test set of CESM simulations. In this work, we extend the CESM-ECT suite with an inexpensive and robust test for ensemble consistency that is applied to Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) output after only nine model time steps. We demonstrate that adequate ensemble variability is achieved with instantaneous variable values at the ninth step, despite rapid perturbation growth and heterogeneous variable spread. We refer to this new test as the Ultra-Fast CAM Ensemble Consistency Test (UF-CAM-ECT) and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice, including its ability to detect small-scale events and its applicability to the Community Land Model (CLM). The new ultra-fast test facilitates CESM development, porting, and optimization efforts, particularly when used to complement information from the original CESM-ECT suite of tools.
Model Independence in Downscaled Climate Projections: a Case Study in the Southeast United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gray, G. M. E.; Boyles, R.
2016-12-01
Downscaled climate projections are used to deduce how the climate will change in future decades at local and regional scales. It is important to use multiple models to characterize part of the future uncertainty given the impact on adaptation decision making. This is traditionally employed through an equally-weighted ensemble of multiple GCMs downscaled using one technique. Newer practices include several downscaling techniques in an effort to increase the ensemble's representation of future uncertainty. However, this practice may be adding statistically dependent models to the ensemble. Previous research has shown a dependence problem in the GCM ensemble in multiple generations, but has not been shown in the downscaled ensemble. In this case study, seven downscaled climate projections on the daily time scale are considered: CLAREnCE10, SERAP, BCCA (CMIP5 and CMIP3 versions), Hostetler, CCR, and MACA-LIVNEH. These data represent 83 ensemble members, 44 GCMs, and two generations of GCMs. Baseline periods are compared against the University of Idaho's METDATA gridded observation dataset. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering is applied to the correlated errors to determine dependent clusters. Redundant GCMs across different downscaling techniques show the most dependence, while smaller dependence signals are detected within downscaling datasets and across generations of GCMs. These results indicate that using additional downscaled projections to increase the ensemble size must be done with care to avoid redundant GCMs and the process of downscaling may increase the dependence of those downscaled GCMs. Climate model generation does not appear dissimilar enough to be treated as two separate statistical populations for ensemble building at the local and regional scales.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanderson, B. M.
2017-12-01
The CMIP ensembles represent the most comprehensive source of information available to decision-makers for climate adaptation, yet it is clear that there are fundamental limitations in our ability to treat the ensemble as an unbiased sample of possible future climate trajectories. There is considerable evidence that models are not independent, and increasing complexity and resolution combined with computational constraints prevent a thorough exploration of parametric uncertainty or internal variability. Although more data than ever is available for calibration, the optimization of each model is influenced by institutional priorities, historical precedent and available resources. The resulting ensemble thus represents a miscellany of climate simulators which defy traditional statistical interpretation. Models are in some cases interdependent, but are sufficiently complex that the degree of interdependency is conditional on the application. Configurations have been updated using available observations to some degree, but not in a consistent or easily identifiable fashion. This means that the ensemble cannot be viewed as a true posterior distribution updated by available data, but nor can observational data alone be used to assess individual model likelihood. We assess recent literature for combining projections from an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators. Beginning with our published methodology for addressing model interdependency and skill in the weighting scheme for the 4th US National Climate Assessment, we consider strategies for incorporating process-based constraints on future response, perturbed parameter experiments and multi-model output into an integrated framework. We focus on a number of guiding questions: Is the traditional framework of confidence in projections inferred from model agreement leading to biased or misleading conclusions? Can the benefits of upweighting skillful models be reconciled with the increased risk of truth lying outside the weighted ensemble distribution? If CMIP is an ensemble of partially informed best-guesses, can we infer anything about the parent distribution of all possible models of the climate system (and if not, are we implicitly under-representing the risk of a climate catastrophe outside of the envelope of CMIP simulations)?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ali, Mumtaz; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Downs, Nathan J.; Maraseni, Tek
2018-07-01
Forecasting drought by means of the World Meteorological Organization-approved Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is considered to be a fundamental task to support socio-economic initiatives and effectively mitigating the climate-risk. This study aims to develop a robust drought modelling strategy to forecast multi-scalar SPI in drought-rich regions of Pakistan where statistically significant lagged combinations of antecedent SPI are used to forecast future SPI. With ensemble-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System ('ensemble-ANFIS') executed via a 10-fold cross-validation procedure, a model is constructed by randomly partitioned input-target data. Resulting in 10-member ensemble-ANFIS outputs, judged by mean square error and correlation coefficient in the training period, the optimal forecasts are attained by the averaged simulations, and the model is benchmarked with M5 Model Tree and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). The results show the proposed ensemble-ANFIS model's preciseness was notably better (in terms of the root mean square and mean absolute error including the Willmott's, Nash-Sutcliffe and Legates McCabe's index) for the 6- and 12- month compared to the 3-month forecasts as verified by the largest error proportions that registered in smallest error band. Applying 10-member simulations, ensemble-ANFIS model was validated for its ability to forecast severity (S), duration (D) and intensity (I) of drought (including the error bound). This enabled uncertainty between multi-models to be rationalized more efficiently, leading to a reduction in forecast error caused by stochasticity in drought behaviours. Through cross-validations at diverse sites, a geographic signature in modelled uncertainties was also calculated. Considering the superiority of ensemble-ANFIS approach and its ability to generate uncertainty-based information, the study advocates the versatility of a multi-model approach for drought-risk forecasting and its prime importance for estimating drought properties over confidence intervals to generate better information for strategic decision-making.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Niedzielski, Tomasz; Mizinski, Bartlomiej
2016-04-01
The HydroProg system has been elaborated in frame of the research project no. 2011/01/D/ST10/04171 of the National Science Centre of Poland and is steadily producing multimodel ensemble predictions of hydrograph in real time. Although there are six ensemble members available at present, the longest record of predictions and their statistics is available for two data-based models (uni- and multivariate autoregressive models). Thus, we consider 3-hour predictions of water levels, with lead times ranging from 15 to 180 minutes, computed every 15 minutes since August 2013 for the Nysa Klodzka basin (SW Poland) using the two approaches and their two-model ensemble. Since the launch of the HydroProg system there have been 12 high flow episodes, and the objective of this work is to present the performance of the two-model ensemble in the process of forecasting these events. For a sake of brevity, we limit our investigation to a single gauge located at the Nysa Klodzka river in the town of Klodzko, which is centrally located in the studied basin. We identified certain regular scenarios of how the models perform in predicting the high flows in Klodzko. At the initial phase of the high flow, well before the rising limb of hydrograph, the two-model ensemble is found to provide the most skilful prognoses of water levels. However, while forecasting the rising limb of hydrograph, either the two-model solution or the vector autoregressive model offers the best predictive performance. In addition, it is hypothesized that along with the development of the rising limb phase, the vector autoregression becomes the most skilful approach amongst the scrutinized ones. Our simple two-model exercise confirms that multimodel hydrologic ensemble predictions cannot be treated as universal solutions suitable for forecasting the entire high flow event, but their superior performance may hold only for certain phases of a high flow.
A Statistical Description of Neural Ensemble Dynamics
Long, John D.; Carmena, Jose M.
2011-01-01
The growing use of multi-channel neural recording techniques in behaving animals has produced rich datasets that hold immense potential for advancing our understanding of how the brain mediates behavior. One limitation of these techniques is they do not provide important information about the underlying anatomical connections among the recorded neurons within an ensemble. Inferring these connections is often intractable because the set of possible interactions grows exponentially with ensemble size. This is a fundamental challenge one confronts when interpreting these data. Unfortunately, the combination of expert knowledge and ensemble data is often insufficient for selecting a unique model of these interactions. Our approach shifts away from modeling the network diagram of the ensemble toward analyzing changes in the dynamics of the ensemble as they relate to behavior. Our contribution consists of adapting techniques from signal processing and Bayesian statistics to track the dynamics of ensemble data on time-scales comparable with behavior. We employ a Bayesian estimator to weigh prior information against the available ensemble data, and use an adaptive quantization technique to aggregate poorly estimated regions of the ensemble data space. Importantly, our method is capable of detecting changes in both the magnitude and structure of correlations among neurons missed by firing rate metrics. We show that this method is scalable across a wide range of time-scales and ensemble sizes. Lastly, the performance of this method on both simulated and real ensemble data is used to demonstrate its utility. PMID:22319486
Role of Core-collapse Supernovae in Explaining Solar System Abundances of p Nuclides
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Travaglio, C.; Rauscher, T.; Heger, A.; Pignatari, M.; West, C.
2018-02-01
The production of the heavy stable proton-rich isotopes between 74Se and 196Hg—the p nuclides—is due to the contribution from different nucleosynthesis processes, activated in different types of stars. Whereas these processes have been subject to various studies, their relative contributions to Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) are still a matter of debate. Here we investigate for the first time the nucleosynthesis of p nuclides in GCE by including metallicity and progenitor mass-dependent yields of core-collapse supernovae (ccSNe) into a chemical evolution model. We used a grid of metallicities and progenitor masses from two different sets of stellar yields and followed the contribution of ccSNe to the Galactic abundances as a function of time. In combination with previous studies on p-nucleus production in thermonuclear supernovae (SNIa), and using the same GCE description, this allows us to compare the respective roles of SNeIa and ccSNe in the production of p-nuclei in the Galaxy. The γ process in ccSN is very efficient for a wide range of progenitor masses (13 M ⊙–25 M ⊙) at solar metallicity. Since it is a secondary process with its efficiency depending on the initial abundance of heavy elements, its contribution is strongly reduced below solar metallicity. This makes it challenging to explain the inventory of the p nuclides in the solar system by the contribution from ccSNe alone. In particular, we find that ccSNe contribute less than 10% of the solar p nuclide abundances, with only a few exceptions. Due to the uncertain contribution from other nucleosynthesis sites in ccSNe, such as neutrino winds or α-rich freeze out, we conclude that the light p-nuclides 74Se, 78Kr, 84Sr, and 92Mo may either still be completely or only partially produced in ccSNe. The γ-process accounts for up to twice the relative solar abundances for 74Se in one set of stellar models and 196Hg in the other set. The solar abundance of the heaviest p nucleus 196Hg is reproduced within uncertainties in one set of our models due to photodisintegration of the Pb isotopes 208,207,206Pb. For all other p nuclides, abundances as low as 2% of the solar level were obtained.
A GLM Post-processor to Adjust Ensemble Forecast Traces
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Schaake, J. C.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.
2011-12-01
The skill of hydrologic ensemble forecasts has improved in the last years through a better understanding of climate variability, better climate forecasts and new data assimilation techniques. Having been extensively utilized for probabilistic water supply forecasting, interest is developing to utilize these forecasts in operational decision making. Hydrologic ensemble forecast members typically have inherent biases in flow timing and volume caused by (1) structural errors in the models used, (2) systematic errors in the data used to calibrate those models, (3) uncertain initial hydrologic conditions, and (4) uncertainties in the forcing datasets. Furthermore, hydrologic models have often not been developed for operational decision points and ensemble forecasts are thus not always available where needed. A statistical post-processor can be used to address these issues. The post-processor should (1) correct for systematic biases in flow timing and volume, (2) preserve the skill of the available raw forecasts, (3) preserve spatial and temporal correlation as well as the uncertainty in the forecasted flow data, (4) produce adjusted forecast ensembles that represent the variability of the observed hydrograph to be predicted, and (5) preserve individual forecast traces as equally likely. The post-processor should also allow for the translation of available ensemble forecasts to hydrologically similar locations where forecasts are not available. This paper introduces an ensemble post-processor (EPP) developed in support of New York City water supply operations. The EPP employs a general linear model (GLM) to (1) adjust available ensemble forecast traces and (2) create new ensembles for (nearby) locations where only historic flow observations are available. The EPP is calibrated by developing daily and aggregated statistical relationships form historical flow observations and model simulations. These are then used in operation to obtain the conditional probability density function (PDF) of the observations to be predicted, thus jointly adjusting individual ensemble members. These steps are executed in a normalized transformed space ('z'-space) to account for the strong non-linearity in the flow observations involved. A data window centered on each calibration date is used to minimize impacts from sampling errors and data noise. Testing on datasets from California and New York suggests that the EPP can successfully minimize biases in ensemble forecasts, while preserving the raw forecast skill in a 'days to weeks' forecast horizon and reproducing the variability of climatology for 'weeks to years' forecast horizons.
EFS: an ensemble feature selection tool implemented as R-package and web-application.
Neumann, Ursula; Genze, Nikita; Heider, Dominik
2017-01-01
Feature selection methods aim at identifying a subset of features that improve the prediction performance of subsequent classification models and thereby also simplify their interpretability. Preceding studies demonstrated that single feature selection methods can have specific biases, whereas an ensemble feature selection has the advantage to alleviate and compensate for these biases. The software EFS (Ensemble Feature Selection) makes use of multiple feature selection methods and combines their normalized outputs to a quantitative ensemble importance. Currently, eight different feature selection methods have been integrated in EFS, which can be used separately or combined in an ensemble. EFS identifies relevant features while compensating specific biases of single methods due to an ensemble approach. Thereby, EFS can improve the prediction accuracy and interpretability in subsequent binary classification models. EFS can be downloaded as an R-package from CRAN or used via a web application at http://EFS.heiderlab.de.
Liu, Shuguang; Tan, Zhengxi; Chen, Mingshi; Liu, Jinxun; Wein, Anne; Li, Zhengpeng; Huang, Shengli; Oeding, Jennifer; Young, Claudia; Verma, Shashi B.; Suyker, Andrew E.; Faulkner, Stephen P.
2012-01-01
The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was es in individual models, it uses multiple site-scale biogeochemical models to perform model simulations. Second, it adopts Monte Carlo ensemble simulations of each simulation unit (one site/pixel or group of sites/pixels with similar biophysical conditions) to incorporate uncertainties and variability (as measured by variances and covariance) of input variables into model simulations. In this chapter, we illustrate the applications of GEMS at the site and regional scales with an emphasis on incorporating agricultural practices. Challenges in modeling soil carbon dynamics and greenhouse emissions are also discussed.
The Role of Aerosols on Precipitation Processes: Cloud Resolving Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, X.; Matsui, T.
2012-01-01
Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e., 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region, the sub-tropics (Florida) and midlatitudes using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CeN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size category, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for these cases. It is shown that since the low (CN case produces fewer droplets, larger sizes develop due to greater condensational and collection growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case. Sensitivity tests were performed to identify the impact of ice processes, radiation and large-scale influence on cloud-aerosol interactive processes, especially regarding surface rainfall amounts and characteristics (i.e., heavy or convective versus light or stratiform types). In addition, an inert tracer was included to follow the vertical redistribution of aerosols by cloud processes. We will also give a brief review from observational evidence on the role of aerosol on precipitation processes.
Scalable and balanced dynamic hybrid data assimilation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kauranne, Tuomo; Amour, Idrissa; Gunia, Martin; Kallio, Kari; Lepistö, Ahti; Koponen, Sampsa
2017-04-01
Scalability of complex weather forecasting suites is dependent on the technical tools available for implementing highly parallel computational kernels, but to an equally large extent also on the dependence patterns between various components of the suite, such as observation processing, data assimilation and the forecast model. Scalability is a particular challenge for 4D variational assimilation methods that necessarily couple the forecast model into the assimilation process and subject this combination to an inherently serial quasi-Newton minimization process. Ensemble based assimilation methods are naturally more parallel, but large models force ensemble sizes to be small and that results in poor assimilation accuracy, somewhat akin to shooting with a shotgun in a million-dimensional space. The Variational Ensemble Kalman Filter (VEnKF) is an ensemble method that can attain the accuracy of 4D variational data assimilation with a small ensemble size. It achieves this by processing a Gaussian approximation of the current error covariance distribution, instead of a set of ensemble members, analogously to the Extended Kalman Filter EKF. Ensemble members are re-sampled every time a new set of observations is processed from a new approximation of that Gaussian distribution which makes VEnKF a dynamic assimilation method. After this a smoothing step is applied that turns VEnKF into a dynamic Variational Ensemble Kalman Smoother VEnKS. In this smoothing step, the same process is iterated with frequent re-sampling of the ensemble but now using past iterations as surrogate observations until the end result is a smooth and balanced model trajectory. In principle, VEnKF could suffer from similar scalability issues as 4D-Var. However, this can be avoided by isolating the forecast model completely from the minimization process by implementing the latter as a wrapper code whose only link to the model is calling for many parallel and totally independent model runs, all of them implemented as parallel model runs themselves. The only bottleneck in the process is the gathering and scattering of initial and final model state snapshots before and after the parallel runs which requires a very efficient and low-latency communication network. However, the volume of data communicated is small and the intervening minimization steps are only 3D-Var, which means their computational load is negligible compared with the fully parallel model runs. We present example results of scalable VEnKF with the 4D lake and shallow sea model COHERENS, assimilating simultaneously continuous in situ measurements in a single point and infrequent satellite images that cover a whole lake, with the fully scalable VEnKF.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suzuki, Kazuyoshi; Zupanski, Milija
2018-01-01
In this study, we investigate the uncertainties associated with land surface processes in an ensemble predication context. Specifically, we compare the uncertainties produced by a coupled atmosphere-land modeling system with two different land surface models, the Noah- MP land surface model (LSM) and the Noah LSM, by using the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) data assimilation system as a platform for ensemble prediction. We carried out 24-hour prediction simulations in Siberia with 32 ensemble members beginning at 00:00 UTC on 5 March 2013. We then compared the model prediction uncertainty of snow depth and solid precipitation with observation-based research products and evaluated the standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The prediction skill and ensemble spread exhibited high positive correlation for both LSMs, indicating a realistic uncertainty estimation. The inclusion of a multiple snowlayer model in the Noah-MP LSM was beneficial for reducing the uncertainties of snow depth and snow depth change compared to the Noah LSM, but the uncertainty in daily solid precipitation showed minimal difference between the two LSMs. The impact of LSM choice in reducing temperature uncertainty was limited to surface layers of the atmosphere. In summary, we found that the more sophisticated Noah-MP LSM reduces uncertainties associated with land surface processes compared to the Noah LSM. Thus, using prediction models with improved skill implies improved predictability and greater certainty of prediction.
Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann
2018-04-01
Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.
Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney
2012-01-01
The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....
Multi-RCM ensemble downscaling of global seasonal forecasts (MRED)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arritt, R.
2009-04-01
Regional climate models (RCMs) have long been used to downscale global climate simulations. In contrast the ability of RCMs to downscale seasonal climate forecasts has received little attention. The Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project was recently initiated to address the question, Does dynamical downscaling using RCMs provide additional useful information for seasonal forecasts made by global models? MRED is using a suite of RCMs to downscale seasonal forecasts produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal forecast system and the NASA GEOS5 system. The initial focus is on wintertime forecasts in order to evaluate topographic forcing, snowmelt, and the usefulness of higher resolution for near-surface fields influenced by high resolution orography. Each RCM covers the conterminous U.S. at approximately 32 km resolution, comparable to the scale of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) which will be used to evaluate the models. The forecast ensemble for each RCM is comprised of 15 members over a period of 22+ years (from 1982 to 2003+) for the forecast period 1 December - 30 April. Each RCM will create a 15-member lagged ensemble by starting on different dates in the preceding November. This results in a 120-member ensemble for each projection (8 RCMs by 15 members per RCM). The RCMs will be continually updated at their lateral boundaries using 6-hourly output from CFS or GEOS5. Hydrometeorological output will be produced in a standard netCDF-based format for a common analysis grid, which simplifies both model intercomparison and the generation of ensembles. MRED will compare individual RCM and global forecasts as well as ensemble mean precipitation and temperature forecasts, which are currently being used to drive macroscale land surface models (LSMs). Metrics of ensemble spread will also be evaluated. Extensive process-oriented analysis will be performed to link improvements in downscaled forecast skill to regional forcings and physical mechanisms. Our overarching goal is to determine what additional skill can be provided by a community ensemble of high resolution regional models, which we believe will define a strategy for more skillful and useful regional seasonal climate forecasts.
Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.
2018-01-01
This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.
Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian
2017-04-01
Ensemble forecasting has a long history from meteorological modelling, as an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process the ensembles as the they often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters varying in space and time, while giving a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, which makes it unsuitable for our purpose. Our post-processing method of the ensembles is developed in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu), where we are making forecasts for whole Europe, and based on observations from around 700 catchments. As the target is flood forecasting, we are also more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than in a good prediction of the entire flow regime. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different meteorological forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to estimate the total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but we are adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process to force a spatial correlation of the parameters. The penalty takes distance, stream-connectivity and size of the catchment areas into account. This can in some cases have a slight negative impact on the calibration error, but avoids large differences between parameters of nearby locations, whether stream connected or not. The spatial calibration also makes it easier to interpolate the post-processing parameters to uncalibrated locations. We also look into different methods for handling the non-normal distributions of runoff data and the effect of different data transformations on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Engeland, K. and Steinsland, I.: Probabilistic postprocessing models for flow forecasts for a system of catchments and several lead times, Water Resour. Res., 50(1), 182-197, doi:10.1002/2012WR012757, 2014. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Velázquez, Juan Alberto; Anctil, François; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Perrin, Charles
2010-05-01
An ensemble forecasting system seeks to assess and to communicate the uncertainty of hydrological predictions by proposing, at each time step, an ensemble of forecasts from which one can estimate the probability distribution of the predictant (the probabilistic forecast), in contrast with a single estimate of the flow, for which no distribution is obtainable (the deterministic forecast). In the past years, efforts towards the development of probabilistic hydrological prediction systems were made with the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWPs). The additional information provided by the different available Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) was evaluated in a hydrological context on various case studies (see the review by Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009). For example, the European ECMWF-EPS was explored in case studies by Roulin et al. (2005), Bartholmes et al. (2005), Jaun et al. (2008), and Renner et al. (2009). The Canadian EC-EPS was also evaluated by Velázquez et al. (2009). Most of these case studies investigate the ensemble predictions of a given hydrological model, set up over a limited number of catchments. Uncertainty from weather predictions is assessed through the use of meteorological ensembles. However, uncertainty from the tested hydrological model and statistical robustness of the forecasting system when coping with different hydro-meteorological conditions are less frequently evaluated. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance and the reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models applied to a large number of catchments in an operational ensemble forecasting context. Some of these models were evaluated in a previous study (Perrin et al. 2001) for their ability to simulate streamflow. Results demonstrated that very simple models can achieve a level of performance almost as high (sometimes higher) as models with more parameters. In the present study, we focus on the ability of the hydrological models to provide reliable probabilistic forecasts of streamflow, based on ensemble weather predictions. The models were therefore adapted to run in a forecasting mode, i.e., to update initial conditions according to the last observed discharge at the time of the forecast, and to cope with ensemble weather scenarios. All models are lumped, i.e., the hydrological behavior is integrated over the spatial scale of the catchment, and run at daily time steps. The complexity of tested models varies between 3 and 13 parameters. The models are tested on 29 French catchments. Daily streamflow time series extend over 17 months, from March 2005 to July 2006. Catchment areas range between 1470 km2 and 9390 km2, and represent a variety of hydrological and meteorological conditions. The 12 UTC 10-day ECMWF rainfall ensemble (51 members) was used, which led to daily streamflow forecasts for a 9-day lead time. In order to assess the performance and reliability of the hydrological ensemble predictions, we computed the Continuous Ranked probability Score (CRPS) (Matheson and Winkler, 1976), as well as the reliability diagram (e.g. Wilks, 1995) and the rank histogram (Talagrand et al., 1999). Since the ECMWF deterministic forecasts are also available, the performance of the hydrological forecasting systems was also evaluated by comparing the deterministic score (MAE) with the probabilistic score (CRPS). The results obtained for the 18 hydrological models and the 29 studied catchments are discussed in the perspective of improving the operational use of ensemble forecasting in hydrology. References Bartholmes, J. and Todini, E.: Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 333-346, 2005. Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble Flood Forecasting: A Review. Journal of Hydrology 375 (3-4): 613-626, 2009. Jaun, S., Ahrens, B., Walser, A., Ewen, T., and Schär, C.: A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 281-291, 2008. Matheson, J. E. and Winkler, R. L.: Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions, Manage Sci., 22, 1087-1096, 1976. Perrin, C., Michel C. and Andréassian,V. Does a large number of parameters enhance model performance? Comparative assessment of common catchment model structures on 429 catchments, J. Hydrol., 242, 275-301, 2001. Renner, M., Werner, M. G. F., Rademacher, S., and Sprokkereef, E.: Verification of ensemble flow forecast for the River Rhine, J. Hydrol., 376, 463-475, 2009. Roulin, E. and Vannitsem, S.: Skill of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 729-744, 2005. Talagrand, O., Vautard, R., and Strauss, B.: Evaluation of the probabilistic prediction systems, in: Proceedings, ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Shinfield Park, Reading, Berkshire, ECMWF, 1-25, 1999. Velázquez, J.A., Petit, T., Lavoie, A., Boucher M.-A., Turcotte R., Fortin V., and Anctil, F. : An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2221-2231, 2009. Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, 465 pp., 1995.
Müller, Günter; Schulz, Andrea; Dearey, Elisabeth-Ann; Wetekam, Eva-Maria; Wied, Susanne; Frick, Wendelin
2010-07-01
A novel molecular mechanism for the regulation of lipid metabolism by palmitate, H2O2 and the anti-diabetic sulfonylurea drug, glimepiride, in rat adipocytes was recently elucidated. It encompasses the translocation of the glycosylphosphatidylinositol-anchored (GPI-) and (c)AMP degrading enzymes Gce1 and CD73 from detergent-insoluble glycolipid-enriched microdomains of the plasma membrane (DIGs) to intracellular lipid droplets (LD), the incorporation of Gce1 and CD73 into vesicles (adiposomes) which are then released from donor adipocytes and finally the transfer of Gce1 and CD73 from the adiposomes to acceptor adipocytes, where they degrade (c)AMP at the LD surface. Here the stimulation of esterification and inhibition of lipolysis by synthetic phosphoinositolglycans (PIGs), such as PIG37, which represents the glycan component of the GPI anchor, are shown to be correlated to translocation from DIGs to LD and release into adiposomes of Gce1 and CD73. PIG37 actions were blocked upon disruption of DIGs, inactivation of PIG receptor and removal of adiposomes from the incubation medium as was true for those induced by palmitate, H2O2 or glimepiride. In contrast, only the latter actions were dependent on the GPI-specific phospholipase C (GPI-PLC), which may generate PIGs, or on exogenous PIG37 in case of inhibited GPI-PLC. At submaximal concentrations PIG37 and palmitate, H2O2 or glimepiride acted in synergistic fashion. These data suggest that PIGs provoke the transfer of GPI-proteins from DIGs via LD and adiposomes of donor adipocytes to acceptor adipocytes and thereby mediate the regulation of lipid metabolism by palmitate, H2O2 and glimepiride between adipocytes.
Agüí, Lourdes; Peña-Farfal, Carlos; Yáñez-Sedeño, Paloma; Pingarrón, José M
2007-03-07
Simple and sensitive methods for the separation and quantification of beta-carboline alkaloids in foods and beverages by HPLC with electrochemical detection at carbon nanotubes-modified glassy carbon electrodes (CNTs-GCE) are reported. Electrode modification with multi-wall CNTs produced an improved amperometric response to beta-carbolines, in spite of the working medium consisting of methanol:acetonitrile: 0.05 mol L(-1) Na(2)HPO(4) solution of pH 9.0 (20:20:60). On the contrary to that observed at a bare GCE, a good repeatability of the amperometric measurements carried out at +900 mV versus Ag/AgCl (R.S.D. of 3.2% for i(p), n=20) was achieved at the CNTs-GCE. Using an Ultrabase C(18) column and isocratic elution with the above mentioned mobile phase, a complete resolution of the chromatographic peaks for harmalol, harmaline, norharmane, harmane and harmine, was achieved. Calibration graphs over the 0.25-100 microM range with detection limits ranging between 4 and 19 ng mL(-1), were obtained. The HPLC-ED at CNTs-GCE method was applied to the analysis of beer, coffee and cheese samples, spiked with beta-carbolines at concentration levels corresponding to those may be found in the respective samples. The steps involved in sample treatment, such as extraction and clean-up, were optimized for each type of sample. Recoveries ranging between 92 and 102% for beer, 92 and 101% for coffee, and 88 and 100% for cheese, at sub-microg mL(-1) or g(-1) analytes concentration levels were achieved.
Yang, Yukun; Fang, Guozhen; Liu, Guiyang; Pan, Mingfei; Wang, Xiaomin; Kong, Lingjie; He, Xinlei; Wang, Shuo
2013-09-15
Quinoxaline-2-carboxylic acid (QCA) is difficult to measure since only trace levels are present in commercial meat products. In this study, a rapid, sensitive and selective molecularly imprinted electrochemical sensor for QCA determination was successfully constructed by combination of a novel modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). The GCE was fabricated via stepwise modification of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs)-chitosan (CS) functional composite and a sol-gel molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP) film on the surface. MWNTs-CS composite was used to enhance the electron transfer rate and expand electrode surface area, and consequently amplify QCA reduction electrochemical response. The imprinted mechanism and experimental parameters affecting the performance of MIP film were discussed in detail. The resulting MIP/sol-gel/MWNTs-CS/GCE was characterized using various electrochemical methods involving cyclic voltammetry (CV), electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and DPV. The sensor using MIP/sol-gel/MWNTs-CS/GCE as working electrode showed a linear current response to the target QCA concentration in the wide range from 2.0×10(-6) to 1.0×10(-3)molL(-1) with a low detection limit of 4.4×10(-7)molL(-1) (S/N=3). The established sensor with excellent reproductivity and stability was applied to evaluate commercial pork products. At five concentration levels, the recoveries and standard deviations were calculated as 93.5-98.6% and 1.7-3.3%, respectively, suggesting the proposed sensor is promising for the accurate quantification of QCA at trace levels in meat samples. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Yijia; Chu, Mi; Yang, Lu; Tan, Yueming; Deng, Wenfang; Ma, Ming; Su, Xiaoli; Xie, Qingji
2014-08-13
We report here three-dimensional graphene networks (3D-GNs) as a novel substrate for the immobilization of laccase (Lac) and dopamine (DA) and its application in glucose/O2 biofuel cell. 3D-GNs were synthesized with an Ni(2+)-exchange/KOH activation combination method using a 732-type sulfonic acid ion-exchange resin as the carbon precursor. The 3D-GNs exhibited an interconnected network structure and a high specific surface area. DA was noncovalently functionalized on the surface of 3D-GNs with 3,4,9,10-perylene tetracarboxylic acid (PTCA) as a bridge and used as a novel immobilized mediating system for Lac-based bioelectrocatalytic reduction of oxygen. The 3D-GNs-PTCA-DA nanocomposite modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) showed stable and well-defined redox current peaks for the catechol/o-quinone redox couple. Due to the mediated electron transfer by the 3D-GNs-PTCA-DA nanocomposite, the Nafion/Lac/3D-GNs-PTCA-DA/GCE exhibited high catalytic activity for oxygen reduction. The 3D-GNs are proven to be a better substrate for Lac and its mediator immobilization than 2D graphene nanosheets (2D-GNs) due to the interconnected network structure and high specific surface area of 3D-GNs. A glucose/O2 fuel cell using Nafion/Lac/3D-GNs-PTCA-DA/GCE as the cathode and Nafion/glucose oxidase/ferrocence/3D-GNs/GCE as the anode can output a maximum power density of 112 μW cm(-2) and a short-circuit current density of 0.96 mA cm(-2). This work may be helpful for exploiting the popular 3D-GNs as an efficient electrode material for many other biotechnology applications.
Goornavar, Virupaxi; Jeffers, Robert; Biradar, Santoshkumar; Ramesh, Govindarajan T
2014-07-01
In this work we report the improved performance an electrochemical glucose sensor based on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) that has been modified with highly purified single wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) dispersed in polyethyleneimine (PEI), polyethylene glycol (PEG) and polypyrrole (PPy). The single wall carbon nanotubes were purified by both thermal and chemical oxidation to achieve maximum purity of ~98% with no damage to the tubes. The SWCNTs were then dispersed by sonication in three different organic polymers (1.0mg/ml SWCNT in 1.0mg/ml of organic polymer). The stable suspension was coated onto the GCE and electrochemical characterization was performed by Cyclic Voltammetry (CV) and Amperometry. The electroactive enzyme glucose oxidase (GOx) was immobilized on the surface of the GCE/(organic polymer-SWCNT) electrode. The amperometric detection of glucose was carried out at 0.7 V versus Ag/AgCl. The GCE/(SWCNT-PEI, PEG, PPY) gave a detection limit of 0.2,633 μM, 0.434 μM, and 0.9,617 μM, and sensitivities of 0.2411 ± 0.0033 μA mM(-1), r(2)=0.9984, 0.08164 ± 0.001129 μA mM(-1), r(2)=0.9975, 0.04189 ± 0.00087 μA mM(-1), and r(2)=0.9944 respectively and a response time of less than 5s. The use of purified SWCNTs has several advantages, including fast electron transfer rate and stability in the immobilized enzyme. The significant enhancement of the SWCNT modified electrode as a glucose sensor can be attributed to the superior conductivity and large surface area of the well dispersed purified SWCNTs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Solid-state Graft Copolymer Electrolytes for Lithium Battery Applications
Hu, Qichao; Caputo, Antonio; Sadoway, Donald R.
2013-01-01
Battery safety has been a very important research area over the past decade. Commercially available lithium ion batteries employ low flash point (<80 °C), flammable, and volatile organic electrolytes. These organic based electrolyte systems are viable at ambient temperatures, but require a cooling system to ensure that temperatures do not exceed 80 °C. These cooling systems tend to increase battery costs and can malfunction which can lead to battery malfunction and explosions, thus endangering human life. Increases in petroleum prices lead to a huge demand for safe, electric hybrid vehicles that are more economically viable to operate as oil prices continue to rise. Existing organic based electrolytes used in lithium ion batteries are not applicable to high temperature automotive applications. A safer alternative to organic electrolytes is solid polymer electrolytes. This work will highlight the synthesis for a graft copolymer electrolyte (GCE) poly(oxyethylene) methacrylate (POEM) to a block with a lower glass transition temperature (Tg) poly(oxyethylene) acrylate (POEA). The conduction mechanism has been discussed and it has been demonstrated the relationship between polymer segmental motion and ionic conductivity indeed has a Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher (VTF) dependence. Batteries containing commercially available LP30 organic (LiPF6 in ethylene carbonate (EC):dimethyl carbonate (DMC) at a 1:1 ratio) and GCE were cycled at ambient temperature. It was found that at ambient temperature, the batteries containing GCE showed a greater overpotential when compared to LP30 electrolyte. However at temperatures greater than 60 °C, the GCE cell exhibited much lower overpotential due to fast polymer electrolyte conductivity and nearly the full theoretical specific capacity of 170 mAh/g was accessed. PMID:23963203
Solid-state graft copolymer electrolytes for lithium battery applications.
Hu, Qichao; Caputo, Antonio; Sadoway, Donald R
2013-08-12
Battery safety has been a very important research area over the past decade. Commercially available lithium ion batteries employ low flash point (< 80 °C), flammable, and volatile organic electrolytes. These organic based electrolyte systems are viable at ambient temperatures, but require a cooling system to ensure that temperatures do not exceed 80 °C. These cooling systems tend to increase battery costs and can malfunction which can lead to battery malfunction and explosions, thus endangering human life. Increases in petroleum prices lead to a huge demand for safe, electric hybrid vehicles that are more economically viable to operate as oil prices continue to rise. Existing organic based electrolytes used in lithium ion batteries are not applicable to high temperature automotive applications. A safer alternative to organic electrolytes is solid polymer electrolytes. This work will highlight the synthesis for a graft copolymer electrolyte (GCE) poly(oxyethylene) methacrylate (POEM) to a block with a lower glass transition temperature (Tg) poly(oxyethylene) acrylate (POEA). The conduction mechanism has been discussed and it has been demonstrated the relationship between polymer segmental motion and ionic conductivity indeed has a Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher (VTF) dependence. Batteries containing commercially available LP30 organic (LiPF6 in ethylene carbonate (EC):dimethyl carbonate (DMC) at a 1:1 ratio) and GCE were cycled at ambient temperature. It was found that at ambient temperature, the batteries containing GCE showed a greater overpotential when compared to LP30 electrolyte. However at temperatures greater than 60 °C, the GCE cell exhibited much lower overpotential due to fast polymer electrolyte conductivity and nearly the full theoretical specific capacity of 170 mAh/g was accessed.
Oyebola, D D; Adewoye, O E; Iyaniwura, J O; Alada, A R; Fasanmade, A A; Raji, Y
2000-01-01
This study was designed to compare the performance of medical students in physiology when assessed by multiple choice questions (MCQs) and short essay questions (SEQs). The study also examined the influence of factors such as age, sex, O/level grades and JAMB scores on performance in the MCQs and SEQs. A structured questionnaire was administered to 264 medical students' four months before the Part I MBBS examination. Apart from personal data of each student, the questionnaire sought information on the JAMB scores and GCE O' Level grades of each student in English Language, Biology, Chemistry, Physics and Mathematics. The physiology syllabus was divided into five parts and the students were administered separate examinations (tests) on each part. Each test consisted of MCQs and SEQs. The performance in MCQs and SEQs were compared. Also, the effects of JAMB scores and GCE O/level grades on the performance in both the MCQs and SEQs were assessed. The results showed that the students performed better in all MCQ tests than in the SEQs. JAMB scores and O' level English Language grade had no significant effect on students' performance in MCQs and SEQs. However O' level grades in Biology, Chemistry, Physics and Mathematics had significant effects on performance in MCQs and SEQs. Inadequate knowledge of physiology and inability to present information in a logical sequence are believed to be major factors contributing to the poorer performance in the SEQs compared with MCQs. In view of the finding of significant association between performance in MCQs and SEQs and GCE O/level grades in science subjects and mathematics, it was recommended that both JAMB results and the GCE results in the four O/level subjects above may be considered when selecting candidates for admission into the medical schools.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alessandri, Andrea; Felice, Matteo De; Catalano, Franco; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Lee, Doo Young; Yoo, Jin-Ho; Weisheimer, Antije
2018-04-01
Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplifies with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two MME Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models. To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME is used to predict retrospective energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant enhancement of the potential economic value of forecasting energy demand when using the better combinations from the Grand MME by comparison to the maximum value obtained from the better combinations of each of the two contributing MMEs. The above results demonstrate for the first time the potential of the Grand MME to significantly contribute in obtaining useful predictions at the seasonal time-scale.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goldenson, Naomi L.
Uncertainties in climate projections at the regional scale are inevitably larger than those for global mean quantities. Here, focusing on western North American regional climate, several approaches are taken to quantifying uncertainties starting with the output of global climate model projections. Internal variance is found to be an important component of the projection uncertainty up and down the west coast. To quantify internal variance and other projection uncertainties in existing climate models, we evaluate different ensemble configurations. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble of opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter offers the advantage of also producing estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that climate projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible. We then conduct a small single-model ensemble of simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales with physics from the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (MPAS-CAM5) and prescribed historical sea surface temperatures. In the global variable resolution domain, the finest resolution (at 30 km) is in our region of interest over western North America and upwind over the northeast Pacific. In the finer-scale region, extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs) is connected to tendencies in seasonal snowpack in mountains of the Northwest United States and California. In most of the Cascade Mountains, winters with more AR days are associated with less snowpack, in contrast to the northern Rockies and California's Sierra Nevadas. In snowpack observations and reanalysis of the atmospheric circulation, we find similar relationships between frequency of AR events and winter season snowpack in the western United States. In spring, however, there is not a clear relationship between number of AR days and seasonal mean snowpack across the model ensemble, so caution is urged in interpreting the historical record in the spring season. Finally, the representation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--an important source of interannual climate predictability in some regions--is explored in a large single-model ensemble using ensemble Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to find modes of variance across the entire ensemble at once. The leading EOF is ENSO. The principal components (PCs) of the next three EOFs exhibit a lead-lag relationship with the ENSO signal captured in the first PC. The second PC, with most of its variance in the summer season, is the most strongly cross-correlated with the first. This approach offers insight into how the model considered represents this important atmosphere-ocean interaction. Taken together these varied approaches quantify the implications of climate projections regionally, identify processes that make snowpack water resources vulnerable, and seek insight into how to better simulate the large-scale climate modes controlling regional variability.
Weighting of NMME temperature and precipitation forecasts across Europe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Slater, Louise J.; Villarini, Gabriele; Bradley, A. Allen
2017-09-01
Multi-model ensemble forecasts are obtained by weighting multiple General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to heighten forecast skill and reduce uncertainties. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project facilitates the development of such multi-model forecasting schemes by providing publicly-available hindcasts and forecasts online. Here, temperature and precipitation forecasts are enhanced by leveraging the strengths of eight NMME GCMs (CCSM3, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, CFSv2, GEOS5, GFDL2.1, and FLORb01) across all forecast months and lead times, for four broad climatic European regions: Temperate, Mediterranean, Humid-Continental and Subarctic-Polar. We compare five different approaches to multi-model weighting based on the equally weighted eight single-model ensembles (EW-8), Bayesian updating (BU) of the eight single-model ensembles (BU-8), BU of the 94 model members (BU-94), BU of the principal components of the eight single-model ensembles (BU-PCA-8) and BU of the principal components of the 94 model members (BU-PCA-94). We assess the forecasting skill of these five multi-models and evaluate their ability to predict some of the costliest historical droughts and floods in recent decades. Results indicate that the simplest approach based on EW-8 preserves model skill, but has considerable biases. The BU and BU-PCA approaches reduce the unconditional biases and negative skill in the forecasts considerably, but they can also sometimes diminish the positive skill in the original forecasts. The BU-PCA models tend to produce lower conditional biases than the BU models and have more homogeneous skill than the other multi-models, but with some loss of skill. The use of 94 NMME model members does not present significant benefits over the use of the 8 single model ensembles. These findings may provide valuable insights for the development of skillful, operational multi-model forecasting systems.
A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schellekens, Jaap; Dutra, Emanuel; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; van Dijk, Albert; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Minvielle, Marie; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Decharme, Bertrand; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Peßenteiner, Stefanie; van Beek, Rens; Polcher, Jan; Beck, Hylke; Orth, René; Calton, Ben; Burke, Sophia; Dorigo, Wouter; Weedon, Graham P.
2017-07-01
The dataset presented here consists of an ensemble of 10 global hydrological and land surface models for the period 1979-2012 using a reanalysis-based meteorological forcing dataset (0.5° resolution). The current dataset serves as a state of the art in current global hydrological modelling and as a benchmark for further improvements in the coming years. A signal-to-noise ratio analysis revealed low inter-model agreement over (i) snow-dominated regions and (ii) tropical rainforest and monsoon areas. The large uncertainty of precipitation in the tropics is not reflected in the ensemble runoff. Verification of the results against benchmark datasets for evapotranspiration, snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil moisture anomaly and total water storage anomaly using the tools from The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB) showed overall useful model performance, while the ensemble mean generally outperformed the single model estimates. The results also show that there is currently no single best model for all variables and that model performance is spatially variable. In our unconstrained model runs the ensemble mean of total runoff into the ocean was 46 268 km3 yr-1 (334 kg m-2 yr-1), while the ensemble mean of total evaporation was 537 kg m-2 yr-1. All data are made available openly through a Water Cycle Integrator portal (WCI, wci.earth2observe.eu), and via a direct http and ftp download. The portal follows the protocols of the open geospatial consortium such as OPeNDAP, WCS and WMS. The DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1016/10.5281/zenodo.167070.
NWP model forecast skill optimization via closure parameter variations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Järvinen, H.; Ollinaho, P.; Laine, M.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.
2012-04-01
We present results of a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. The current practice is to specify manually the numerical parameter values, based on expert knowledge. We developed recently a concept and method (QJRMS 2011) for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters via closure parameter variations. The method called EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") utilizes ensemble prediction infra-structure for parameter estimation in a very cost-effective way: practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating an ensemble of predictions so that each member uses different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In this presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an ensemble prediction system emulator, based on the ECHAM5 atmospheric GCM show that the model tuning capability of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, preliminary results of EPPES in the context of ECMWF forecasting system are presented.
The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems
Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.
2011-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; Robertson, David E.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara
2016-06-01
Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system; short-term weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction models and observed weather data available from automatic weather stations. The predictive performance for the ensemble spread of irrigation demand was quantified using rank histograms, the mean continuous rank probability score (CRPS), the mean CRPS reliability and the temporal mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE). The mean forecast was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and bias. The NSE values for evaluation periods ranged between 0.96 (1 day lead time, whole study area) and 0.42 (5 days lead time, smallest command area). Rank histograms and comparison of MRMSE, mean CRPS, mean CRPS reliability and RMSE indicated that the ensemble spread is generally a reliable representation of the forecast uncertainty for short lead times but underestimates the uncertainty for long lead times.
Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhu, Yanqui; Cohn, Stephen E.; Todling, Ricardo
1999-01-01
The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.
Hampson, Robert E.; Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H.M.; Sweatt, Andrew J.; Riley, Mitchell R.; Goonawardena, Anushka V.; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z.; Gerhardt, Greg A.; Berger, Theodore W.; Deadwyler, Sam A.
2012-01-01
A major factor involved in providing closed loop feedback for control of neural function is to understand how neural ensembles encode online information critical to the final behavioral endpoint. This issue was directly assessed in rats performing a short-term delay memory task in which successful encoding of task information is dependent upon specific spatiotemporal firing patterns recorded from ensembles of CA3 and CA1 hippocampal neurons. Such patterns, extracted by a specially designed nonlinear multi-input multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear mathematical model, were used to predict successful performance online via a closed loop paradigm which regulated trial difficulty (time of retention) as a function of the “strength” of stimulus encoding. The significance of the MIMO model as a neural prosthesis has been demonstrated by substituting trains of electrical stimulation pulses to mimic these same ensemble firing patterns. This feature was used repeatedly to vary “normal” encoding as a means of understanding how neural ensembles can be “tuned” to mimic the inherent process of selecting codes of different strength and functional specificity. The capacity to enhance and tune hippocampal encoding via MIMO model detection and insertion of critical ensemble firing patterns shown here provides the basis for possible extension to other disrupted brain circuitry. PMID:22498704
Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.
2009-04-01
In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be either an intermediate forecast between the extremes of the ensemble spread or a manually selected forecast based on a meteorologists advice. 2. Downstream catchments with low influence of weather forecast In downstream catchments with strong human impact on discharge (e.g. by reservoir operation) and large influence of upstream gauge observation quality on forecast quality, the 'overall error' may in most cases be larger than the combination of the 'model error' and an ensemble spread. Therefore, the overall forecast uncertainty bounds are calculated differently: a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. Here, additionally the corresponding inflow hydrograph from all upstream catchments must be used. b) As for an upstream catchment, the uncertainty range is determined by combination of 'model error' and the ensemble member forecasts c) In addition, the 'overall error' is superimposed on the 'lead forecast'. For reasons of consistency, the lead forecast must be based on the same meteorological forecast in the downstream and all upstream catchments. d) From the resulting two uncertainty ranges (one from the ensemble forecast and 'model error', one from the 'lead forecast' and 'overall error'), the envelope is taken as the most prudent uncertainty range. In sum, the uncertainty associated with each forecast run is calculated and communicated to the public in the form of 10% and 90% percentiles. As in part I of this study, the methodology as well as the useful- or uselessness of the resulting uncertainty ranges will be presented and discussed by typical examples.
A hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation for the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gustafsson, N.; Bojarova, J.; Vignes, O.
2014-02-01
A hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation has been developed on top of the HIRLAM variational data assimilation. It provides the possibility of applying a flow-dependent background error covariance model during the data assimilation at the same time as full rank characteristics of the variational data assimilation are preserved. The hybrid formulation is based on an augmentation of the assimilation control variable with localised weights to be assigned to a set of ensemble member perturbations (deviations from the ensemble mean). The flow-dependency of the hybrid assimilation is demonstrated in single simulated observation impact studies and the improved performance of the hybrid assimilation in comparison with pure 3-dimensional variational as well as pure ensemble assimilation is also proven in real observation assimilation experiments. The performance of the hybrid assimilation is comparable to the performance of the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation. The sensitivity to various parameters of the hybrid assimilation scheme and the sensitivity to the applied ensemble generation techniques are also examined. In particular, the inclusion of ensemble perturbations with a lagged validity time has been examined with encouraging results.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Erdmann, Thorsten; Albert, Philipp J.; Schwarz, Ulrich S.
2013-11-07
Non-processive molecular motors have to work together in ensembles in order to generate appreciable levels of force or movement. In skeletal muscle, for example, hundreds of myosin II molecules cooperate in thick filaments. In non-muscle cells, by contrast, small groups with few tens of non-muscle myosin II motors contribute to essential cellular processes such as transport, shape changes, or mechanosensing. Here we introduce a detailed and analytically tractable model for this important situation. Using a three-state crossbridge model for the myosin II motor cycle and exploiting the assumptions of fast power stroke kinetics and equal load sharing between motors inmore » equivalent states, we reduce the stochastic reaction network to a one-step master equation for the binding and unbinding dynamics (parallel cluster model) and derive the rules for ensemble movement. We find that for constant external load, ensemble dynamics is strongly shaped by the catch bond character of myosin II, which leads to an increase of the fraction of bound motors under load and thus to firm attachment even for small ensembles. This adaptation to load results in a concave force-velocity relation described by a Hill relation. For external load provided by a linear spring, myosin II ensembles dynamically adjust themselves towards an isometric state with constant average position and load. The dynamics of the ensembles is now determined mainly by the distribution of motors over the different kinds of bound states. For increasing stiffness of the external spring, there is a sharp transition beyond which myosin II can no longer perform the power stroke. Slow unbinding from the pre-power-stroke state protects the ensembles against detachment.« less
Multi-RCM ensemble downscaling of global seasonal forecasts (MRED)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arritt, R. W.
2008-12-01
The Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project was recently initiated to address the question, Can regional climate models provide additional useful information from global seasonal forecasts? MRED will use a suite of regional climate models to downscale seasonal forecasts produced by the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal forecast system and the NASA GEOS5 system. The initial focus will be on wintertime forecasts in order to evaluate topographic forcing, snowmelt, and the potential usefulness of higher resolution, especially for near-surface fields influenced by high resolution orography. Each regional model will cover the conterminous US (CONUS) at approximately 32 km resolution, and will perform an ensemble of 15 runs for each year 1982-2003 for the forecast period 1 December - 30 April. MRED will compare individual regional and global forecasts as well as ensemble mean precipitation and temperature forecasts, which are currently being used to drive macroscale land surface models (LSMs), as well as wind, humidity, radiation, turbulent heat fluxes, which are important for more advanced coupled macro-scale hydrologic models. Metrics of ensemble spread will also be evaluated. Extensive analysis will be performed to link improvements in downscaled forecast skill to regional forcings and physical mechanisms. Our overarching goal is to determine what additional skill can be provided by a community ensemble of high resolution regional models, which we believe will eventually define a strategy for more skillful and useful regional seasonal climate forecasts.
Chakravorty, Arghya; Jia, Zhe; Li, Lin; Zhao, Shan; Alexov, Emil
2018-02-13
Typically, the ensemble average polar component of solvation energy (ΔG polar solv ) of a macromolecule is computed using molecular dynamics (MD) or Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to generate conformational ensemble and then single/rigid conformation solvation energy calculation is performed on each snapshot. The primary objective of this work is to demonstrate that Poisson-Boltzmann (PB)-based approach using a Gaussian-based smooth dielectric function for macromolecular modeling previously developed by us (Li et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2013, 9 (4), 2126-2136) can reproduce that ensemble average (ΔG polar solv ) of a protein from a single structure. We show that the Gaussian-based dielectric model reproduces the ensemble average ΔG polar solv (⟨ΔG polar solv ⟩) from an energy-minimized structure of a protein regardless of the minimization environment (structure minimized in vacuo, implicit or explicit waters, or crystal structure); the best case, however, is when it is paired with an in vacuo-minimized structure. In other minimization environments (implicit or explicit waters or crystal structure), the traditional two-dielectric model can still be selected with which the model produces correct solvation energies. Our observations from this work reflect how the ability to appropriately mimic the motion of residues, especially the salt bridge residues, influences a dielectric model's ability to reproduce the ensemble average value of polar solvation free energy from a single in vacuo-minimized structure.