Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.

PubMed

Garnier, Jimmy; Lewis, Mark A

2016-11-01

Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

Interactions of forests, climate, water resources, and humans in a changing environment: research needs

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Catalina Segura

2013-01-01

The aim of the special issue “Interactions of Forests, Climate, Water Resources, and Humans in a Changing Environment” is to present case studies on the influences of natural and human disturbances on forest water resources under a changing climate. Studies in this collection of six papers cover a wide range of geographic regions from Australia to Nigeria with spatial...

Climate Change Portal - Home Page

Science.gov Websites

impacts on California's economy and environment. California's unique and valuable natural treasures emissions. Local governments are at the forefront of efforts to adapt to the ongoing and anticipated impacts climate change impacts and informing policies to reduce greenhouse gases, adapt to changing environments

A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2017-04-01

Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC ARS Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

Climate Change, Indoor Environment and Health

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

PubMed

Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

2013-11-30

Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Risk Quantification and Management: Core needs and strategies for adapting water resources systems to a changing environment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2009-12-01

The concern with anthropogenic climate change has spurred significant interest in strategies for climate change adaptation in water resource systems planning and management. The thesis of this talk is that this is a subset of strategies that need to sustainably design and operate structural and non-structural systems for managing resources in a changing environment. Even with respect to a changing climate, the largest opportunity for immediate adaptation to a changing climate may be provided by an improved understanding and prediction capability for seasonal to interannual and decadal climate variability. I shall lay out some ideas as to how this can be done and provide an example for reservoir water allocation and management, and one for flood risk management.

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Coastal Climate Change Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation in the Natural and Built Environments: Progress of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, A.; Herman, B.; Vernaza-Hernández, V.; Ryan, J. G.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.

2011-12-01

The Coastal Area Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership, funded by the National Science Foundation, seeks to develop new ways to educate citizens about global climate change. The core themes are sea level rise and impacts of climate change in the southeastern United States and the Caribbean Sea. CACCE focuses on helping partners, educators, students, and the general public gain a fundamental and working understanding of the interrelation among the natural environment, built environment, and social aspects in the context of climate change in coastal regions. To this end, CACCE's objectives reported here include: 1) defining the current state of awareness, perceptions, and literacy about the impacts of climate change; and 2) testing a model of transdisciplinary research and learning as a means of training a new generation of climate professionals. Objective one is met in part by CACCE survey efforts that reveal Florida and Puerto Rico secondary science teachers hold many non-scientific views about climate change and climate change science and provide inadequate instruction about climate change. Associated with objective two are five Multiple Outcome Interdisciplinary Research and Learning (MOIRL) pilot projects underway in schools in Florida and Puerto Rico. In the CACCE Partnership the stakeholders include: students (K-16 and graduate); teachers and education researchers; informal science educators; scientists and engineers; business and industry; policy makers; and community members. CACCE combines interdisciplinary research with action research and community-based participatory research in a way that is best described as "transdisciplinary". Learning occurs in all spheres of interactions among stakeholders as they engage in scientific, educational, community and business activities through their legitimate peripheral participation in research communities of practice. We will describe the process of seeking and building partnerships, and call for a dialogue with groups pursuing climate and climate change education.

Challenges at the Intersection of Energy, Economy, Environment, & Security and the Role of the Defense Sector in Addressing Them

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-29

economies need in ways that are imperiling  the  climate  its environment needs. 2 The climate - change dimension • Global climate is changing rapidly compared...cloudy & clear • humid & dry • drizzles & downpours • snowfall, snowpack, & snowmelt • breezes, blizzards, tornadoes, & typhoons Climate change means...droughts • heat waves • pest outbreaks • coastal erosion • coral bleaching events • power of typhoons & hurricanes • geographic range of tropical pathogens

USGS global change research

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

The Climate-G testbed: towards a large scale data sharing environment for climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloisio, G.; Fiore, S.; Denvil, S.; Petitdidier, M.; Fox, P.; Schwichtenberg, H.; Blower, J.; Barbera, R.

2009-04-01

The Climate-G testbed provides an experimental large scale data environment for climate change addressing challenging data and metadata management issues. The main scope of Climate-G is to allow scientists to carry out geographical and cross-institutional climate data discovery, access, visualization and sharing. Climate-G is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving both climate and computer scientists and it currently involves several partners such as: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Fraunhofer Institut für Algorithmen und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen (SCAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Reading, University of Catania and University of Salento. To perform distributed metadata search and discovery, we adopted a CMCC metadata solution (which provides a high level of scalability, transparency, fault tolerance and autonomy) leveraging both on P2P and grid technologies (GRelC Data Access and Integration Service). Moreover, data are available through OPeNDAP/THREDDS services, Live Access Server as well as the OGC compliant Web Map Service and they can be downloaded, visualized, accessed into the proposed environment through the Climate-G Data Distribution Centre (DDC), the web gateway to the Climate-G digital library. The DDC is a data-grid portal allowing users to easily, securely and transparently perform search/discovery, metadata management, data access, data visualization, etc. Godiva2 (integrated into the DDC) displays 2D maps (and animations) and also exports maps for display on the Google Earth virtual globe. Presently, Climate-G publishes (through the DDC) about 2TB of data related to the ENSEMBLES project (also including distributed replicas of data) as well as to the IPCC AR4. The main results of the proposed work are: wide data access/sharing environment for climate change; P2P/grid metadata approach; production-level Climate-G DDC; high quality tools for data visualization; metadata search/discovery across several countries/institutions; open environment for climate change data sharing.

Integrated climate and land change research to improve decision-making and resource management in Southern Africa: The SASSCAL approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Olwoch, J. M.

2017-12-01

The ability of countries in southern Africa to jointly respond to climate challenges with scientifically informed and evidence-based actions and policy decisions remains low due to limited scientific research capacity and infrastructure. The Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL; www.sasscal.org) addresses this gap by implementing a high-level framework to guide research and innovation investments in climate change and adaptive land management interventions in Southern Africa. With a strong climate service component as cross-cutting topic, SASSCAL's focus is to improve the understanding of climate and land management change impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Southern Africa. The paper presents a variety of SASSCAL driven activities which contribute to better understand climate and long-term environmental change dynamics at various temporal and spatial scales in Southern Afrika and how these activities are linked to support research and decision-making to optimize agricultural practices as well as sustainable environmental and water resources management. To provide consistent and reliable climate information for Southern Africa, SASSCAL offers various climate services ranging from real-time climate observation across the region utilizing the SASSCAL WeatherNet to regional climate change analysis and modelling efforts at seasonal-to-decadal timescales using climate data from various sources. SASSCAL also offers the current state of the environment in terms of recent data on changes in the environment that are necessary for setting appropriate adaptation strategies . The paper will further demonstrate how these services are utilized for interdisciplinary research on the impact of climate change on natural resources and socio-economic development in the SASSCAL countries and how this knowledge can be effectively used to mitigate and adapt to climate change by informed decision-making from farm to regional level.

40 CFR 197.36 - Are there limits on what DOE must consider in the performance assessments?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... effects of climate change. The climate change analysis may be limited to the effects of increased water flow through the repository as a result of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by...

40 CFR 197.36 - Are there limits on what DOE must consider in the performance assessments?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... effects of climate change. The climate change analysis may be limited to the effects of increased water flow through the repository as a result of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by...

40 CFR 197.36 - Are there limits on what DOE must consider in the performance assessments?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... effects of climate change. The climate change analysis may be limited to the effects of increased water flow through the repository as a result of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by...

40 CFR 197.36 - Are there limits on what DOE must consider in the performance assessments?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... effects of climate change. The climate change analysis may be limited to the effects of increased water flow through the repository as a result of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by...

40 CFR 197.36 - Are there limits on what DOE must consider in the performance assessments?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... effects of climate change. The climate change analysis may be limited to the effects of increased water flow through the repository as a result of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by...

Climate change enhances the mobilisation of naturally occurring metals in high altitude environments.

PubMed

Zaharescu, Dragos G; Hooda, Peter S; Burghelea, Carmen I; Polyakov, Viktor; Palanca-Soler, Antonio

2016-08-01

Manmade climate change has expressed a plethora of complex effects on Earth's biogeochemical compartments. Climate change may also affect the mobilisation of natural metal sources, with potential ecological consequences beyond mountains' geographical limits; however, this question has remained largely unexplored. We investigated this by analysing a number of key climatic factors in relationship with trace metal accumulation in the sediment core of a Pyrenean lake. The sediment metal contents showed increasing accumulation trend over time, and their levels varied in step with recent climate change. The findings further revealed that a rise in the elevation of freezing level, a general increase in the frequency of drier periods, changes in the frequency of winter freezing days and a reducing snow cover since the early 1980s, together are responsible for the observed variability and augmented accumulation of trace metals. Our results provide clear evidence of increased mobilisation of natural metal sources - an overlooked effect of climate change on the environment. With further alterations in climate equilibrium predicted over the ensuing decades, it is likely that mountain catchments in metamorphic areas may become significant sources of trace metals, with potentially harmful consequences for the wider environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

C. Segura; G. Sun; S. McNulty; Y. Zhang

2014-01-01

Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions...

One Health – a strategy for resilience in a changing arctic

PubMed Central

Ruscio, Bruce A.; Brubaker, Michael; Glasser, Joshua; Hueston, Will; Hennessy, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

The circumpolar north is uniquely vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. While international Arctic collaboration on health has enhanced partnerships and advanced the health of inhabitants, significant challenges lie ahead. One Health is an approach that considers the connections between the environment, plant, animal and human health. Understanding this is increasingly critical in assessing the impact of global climate change on the health of Arctic inhabitants. The effects of climate change are complex and difficult to predict with certainty. Health risks include changes in the distribution of infectious disease, expansion of zoonotic diseases and vectors, changing migration patterns, impacts on food security and changes in water availability and quality, among others. A regional network of diverse stakeholder and transdisciplinary specialists from circumpolar nations and Indigenous groups can advance the understanding of complex climate-driven health risks and provide community-based strategies for early identification, prevention and adaption of health risks in human, animals and environment. We propose a regional One Health approach for assessing interactions at the Arctic human–animal–environment interface to enhance the understanding of, and response to, the complexities of climate change on the health of the Arctic inhabitants. PMID:26333722

Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change

Treesearch

Mark W. Schwartz; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Raymond J. O' Connor; Raymond J. O' Connor

2006-01-01

Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that...

Climate Masters of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach for Climate Change Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pathak, Tapan B.; Bernadt, Tonya; Umphlett, Natalie

2014-01-01

Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in…

Social vulnerability and climate change: synthesis of literature

Treesearch

Kathy Lynn; Katharine MacKendrick; Ellen M. Donoghue

2011-01-01

The effects of climate change are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others because of geographic location, the degree of association with climate-sensitive environments, and unique cultural, economic, or political characteristics of particular landscapes and human populations. Social vulnerability and equity in the context of climate change...

Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D.

2012-12-01

The built environment consists of components that have been made by humans at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. The impacts of climate change on the built environment, therefore, may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, there may be feedback mechanisms wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Besides having a host of such interactions, the impacts of climate change on urban areas will likely have thresholds, below which effects are incidental or of mild consequence, but beyond which the effects quickly become major. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. Moreover, urban areas may be affected by changes in daily and seasonal high or low temperatures or precipitation, which may have a much more prolonged impact than the direct effect of these events. Thus, the cumulative impacts of multiple events may be more severe than those of any single event. Primary hazards include sea level rise and coastal storms, heat waves, intense precipitation, drought, extreme wind events, urban heat islands, and secondary air pollutants, and cold air events including frozen precipitation. Indicators need to be developed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities. Overall, indicators of climate change on the built environment should: 1) provide meaningful, authoritative climate-relevant measures about the status, rates, and trends of key physical, ecological, and societal variables and values to inform decisions on management, research, and education at regional to national scales; 2) identify climate-related conditions and impacts to help develop effective mitigation and adaptation measures and reduce costs of management; and 3) document and communicate the climate-driven dynamic nature and condition of Earth's systems and societies, and provide a coordinated. This presentation will provide an overview of possible climate impacts on the built environment. Also, given that spatial analysis and remote sensing techniques will be of paramount importance in assessing these impacts and in preparing adaptation strategies, the presentation will provide examples of how these techniques can be used to identify potential impacts of climate change on the built environment.

Real options analysis for photovoltaic project under climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Sejong; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2016-08-01

The decision on photovoltaic project depends on the level of climate environments. Changes in temperature and insolation affect photovoltaic output. It is important for investors to consider future climate conditions for determining investments on photovoltaic projects. We propose a real options-based framework to assess economic feasibility of photovoltaic project under climate change. The framework supports investors to evaluate climate change impact on photovoltaic projects under future climate uncertainty.

78 FR 19565 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group II Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-01

... Climate Change (IPCC), Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability. SUMMARY: The United States Global Change... on Climate Change (IPCC), Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability. The United Nations Environment... socio-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts...

78 FR 56202 - Ecological Restoration Policy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-12

... natural disturbances, and uncertainty related to climate and other environmental change. On September 22... environmental conditions, such as those driven by a changing climate and increasing human uses. Restoration is... regimes; and likely future environments resulting from climate change and increasing human uses. Although...

A Review on Climate Change in Weather Stations of Guilan Province Using Mann-Kendal Methodand GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadi, Jalal

2016-07-01

Climate has always been changing during the life time of the earth, and has appeared in the form of ice age, hurricanes, severe and sudden temperature changes, precipitation and other climatic elements, and has dramatically influenced the environment, and in some cases has caused severe changes and even destructions. Some of the most important aspects of climate changes can be found in precipitation types of different regions in the world and especially Guilan, which is influenced by drastic land conversions and greenhouse gases. Also, agriculture division, industrial activities and unnecessary land conversions are thought to have a huge influence on climate change. Climate change is a result of abnormalcies of metorologyl parameters. Generally, the element of precipitation is somehow included in most theories about climate change. The present study aims to reveal precipitation abnormalcies in Guilan which lead to climate change, and possible deviations of precipitation parameter based on annual, seasonal and monthly series have been evaluated. The Mann-Kendal test has been used to reveal likely deviations leading to climate change. The trend of precipitation changes in long-term has been identifiedusing this method. Also, the beginning and end of these changes have been studied in five stations as representatives of all the thirteen weather stations. Then,the areas which have experienced climate change have been identified using the GIS software along with the severity of the changes with an emphasis on drought. These results can be used in planning and identifying the effects of these changes on the environment. Keywords: Climate Change, Guilan, Mann-Kendal, GIS

Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI): An Assessment of Resilience to Acute Meteorological Events and Selected Natural Hazards

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a conceptual model of climate resilience (CRSI – Climate Resilience Screening Index ) designed to be sensitive to changes in the natural environment, built environment, governance, and social structure and vulnerability or risk to climate events. CRSI has been used ...

Focus on climate projections for adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feijt, Arnout; Appenzeller, Christof; Siegmund, Peter; von Storch, Hans

2016-01-01

Most papers in this focus issue on ‘climate and climate impact projections for adaptation strategies’ are solicited by the guest editorial team and originate from a cluster of projects that were initiated 5 years ago. These projects aimed to provide climate change and climate change adaptation information for a wide range of societal areas for the lower parts of the deltas of the Rhine and Meuse rivers, and particularly for the Netherlands. The papers give an overview of our experiences, methods, approaches, results and surprises in the process to developing scientifically underpinned climate products and services for various clients. Although the literature on interactions between society and climate science has grown over the past decade both with respect to policy-science framing in post-normal science (Storch et al 2011 J. Environ. Law Policy 1 1-15, van der Sluijs 2012 Nature and Culture 7 174-195), user-science framing (Berkhout et al 2014 Regional Environ. Change 14 879-93) and joint knowledge production (Hegger et al 2014 Regional Environ. Change 14 1049-62), there is still a lot to gain. With this focus issue we want to contribute to best practices in this quickly moving field between science and society.

Stratagems of popular homes in the desertic climate…now, in the process of perdition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benslimane, Nawal; Biara, Ratiba Wided

2017-02-01

The built environment of man has never been and is still not controlled by specialists (architect, planner, etc.). This environment was the result of a popular architecture, which is the product of mass culture nourished by everydayness, the environment and local engineering. This habitat expresses the relationship between environmental constraints and local values, because it reasons in terms of ecosystems and environmental constraints. But, these days in a climate that is increasingly changing, the genius of the physical environment (from city to home) fades. The city, the home succumb simultaneously to an environmental crisis, man at the center of concerns is undermined, subject to climatic discomfort. This paper aims to show the ingenuity of the ancestral production in the most difficult environments to live, facing the passivity of contemporary production in relation to climate and climatic change..

Developing a model for effects of climate change on human health and health-environment interactions: Heat stress in Austin, Texas - Urban Climate

EPA Science Inventory

Human health and well-being are and will be affected by climate change, both directly through changes in extreme weather events and indirectly through weather-induced changes in human and natural systems. Populations are vulnerable to these changes in varying degrees, depending ...

76 FR 31973 - Draft WaterSMART Strategic Implementation Plan

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-02

... best available science to understand the impacts of climate change on water supplies; and provide... and time. It is increasingly recognized that water is the primary means through which climate change... environment, and will identify adaptive measures needed to address climate change and future demands. Within...

Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, K. L.; Prein, A. F.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.

2017-11-01

Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

PubMed

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial.

Climate change, human communities, and forests in rural, urban, and wildland-urban interface environments

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Linda A. Joyce

2012-01-01

Human concerns about the effects of climate change on forests are related to the values that forests provide to human populations, that is, to the effects on ecosystem services derived from forests. Service values include the consumption of timber products, the regulation of climate and water quality, and aesthetic and spiritual values. Effects of climate change on...

Singapore Students' Misconceptions of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty

2016-01-01

Climate change is an important theme in the investigation of human-environment interactions in geographic education. This study explored the nature of students' understanding of concepts and processes related to climate change. Through semi-structured interviews, data was collected from 27 Secondary 3 (Grade 9) students from Singapore. The data…

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens.

PubMed

Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Nijs, Ton; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

2013-11-19

Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects on human health. Objectives of this systematic review were to summarize current knowledge available to estimate how climate change may directly and indirectly affect infection risks due to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Vibrio. Secondary objectives were to prioritize natural processes and interactions that are susceptible to climate change and to identify knowledge gaps. Search strategies were determined based on a conceptual model and scenarios with the main emphasis on The Netherlands. The literature search resulted in a large quantity of publications on climate variables affecting pathogen input and behavior in aquatic environments. However, not all processes and pathogens are evenly covered by the literature, and in many cases, the direction of change is still unclear. To make useful predictions of climate change, it is necessary to combine both negative and positive effects. This review provides an overview of the most important effects of climate change on human health and shows the importance of QMRA to quantify the net effects.

Effect of Climate Change on Surface Ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.; Josse, Beatrice; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Zeng, Guang; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg

2016-01-01

The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year-2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.

Climate change and consequences in the Arctic: perception of climate change by the Nenets people of Vaigach Island.

PubMed

Davydov, Alexander N; Mikhailova, Galina V

2011-01-01

Arctic climate change is already having a significant impact on the environment, economic activity, and public health. For the northern peoples, traditions and cultural identity are closely related to the natural environment so any change will have consequences for society in several ways. A questionnaire was given to the population on the Vaigach island, the Nenets who rely to a large degree on hunting, fishing and reindeer herding for survival. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted about perception of climate change. Climate change is observed and has already had an impact on daily life according to more than 50% of the respondents. The winter season is now colder and longer and the summer season colder and shorter. A decrease in standard of living was noticeable but few were planning to leave. Climate change has been noticed in the region and it has a negative impact on the standard of living for the Nenets. However, as of yet they do not want to leave as cultural identity is important for their overall well-being.

Climate change and consequences in the Arctic: perception of climate change by the Nenets people of Vaigach Island

PubMed Central

Davydov, Alexander N.; Mikhailova, Galina V.

2011-01-01

Background Arctic climate change is already having a significant impact on the environment, economic activity, and public health. For the northern peoples, traditions and cultural identity are closely related to the natural environment so any change will have consequences for society in several ways. Methods A questionnaire was given to the population on the Vaigach island, the Nenets who rely to a large degree on hunting, fishing and reindeer herding for survival. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted about perception of climate change. Results Climate change is observed and has already had an impact on daily life according to more than 50% of the respondents. The winter season is now colder and longer and the summer season colder and shorter. A decrease in standard of living was noticeable but few were planning to leave. Conclusion Climate change has been noticed in the region and it has a negative impact on the standard of living for the Nenets. However, as of yet they do not want to leave as cultural identity is important for their overall well-being. PMID:22091216

Climate change and mental health: a causal pathways framework.

PubMed

Berry, Helen Louise; Bowen, Kathryn; Kjellstrom, Tord

2010-04-01

Climate change will bring more frequent, long lasting and severe adverse weather events and these changes will affect mental health. We propose an explanatory framework to enhance consideration of how these effects may operate and to encourage debate about this important aspect of the health impacts of climate change. Literature review. Climate change may affect mental health directly by exposing people to trauma. It may also affect mental health indirectly, by affecting (1) physical health (for example, extreme heat exposure causes heat exhaustion in vulnerable people, and associated mental health consequences) and (2) community wellbeing. Within community, wellbeing is a sub-process in which climate change erodes physical environments which, in turn, damage social environments. Vulnerable people and places, especially in low-income countries, will be particularly badly affected. Different aspects of climate change may affect mental health through direct and indirect pathways, leading to serious mental health problems, possibly including increased suicide mortality. We propose that it is helpful to integrate these pathways in an explanatory framework, which may assist in developing public health policy, practice and research.

Climatic Change over the 'Third Pole' from Long Tree-Ring Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, E.

2011-12-01

Climatic change over the Greater Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, the 'Third Pole' of the world, is of great concern now as the Earth continues to warm at an alarming rate. While future climatic change over this region and its resulting impacts on humanity and the environment are difficult to predict with much certainty, knowing how climate has varied in the past can provide both an improved understanding of the range of variability and change that could occur in the future and the necessary context for assessing recent observed climatic change there. For this purpose, one of the best natural archives of past climate information available for study of the Third Pole environment is the changing pattern of annual ring widths found in long tree-ring chronologies. The forests of the Third Pole support many long-lived tree species, with some having life spans in excess of 1,000 years. This natural resource is steadily dwindling now due to continuing deforestation caused by human activity, but there is still enough remaining forest cover to produce a detailed network of long tree-ring chronologies for study of climate variability and change covering the past several centuries. The tree-ring records provide a mix of climate information, including that related to both temperature and precipitation. Examples of long drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the more arid parts of the Karakoram and Tibetan Plateau will be presented, along with records that primarily reflect changing temperatures in moister environments such as in Bhutan. Together they provide a glimpse of how climate of the Third Pole has changed over the past several centuries, the range of natural variability that could occur in the future independent of changes caused by greenhouse warming, and how changes during the latter part of the 20th century period of rapid global warming compare to the past.

Modelling Climate/Global Change and Assessing Environmental Risks for Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lykosov, V. N.; Kabanov, M. V.; Heimann, M.; Gordov, E. P.

2009-04-01

The state-of-the-art climate models are based on a combined atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. A central direction of their development is associated with an increasingly accurate description of all physical processes participating in climate formation. In modeling global climate, it is necessary to reconstruct seasonal and monthly mean values, seasonal variability (monsoon cycle, parameters of storm-tracks, etc.), climatic variability (its dominating modes, such as El Niño or Arctic Oscillation), etc. At the same time, it is quite urgent now to use modern mathematical models in studying regional climate and ecological peculiarities, in particular, that of Northern Eurasia. It is related with the fact that, according to modern ideas, natural environment in mid- and high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere is most sensitive to the observed global climate changes. One should consider such tasks of modeling regional climate as detailed reconstruction of its characteristics, investigation of the peculiarities of hydrological cycle, estimation of the possibility of extreme phenomena to occur, and investigation of the consequences of the regional climate changes for the environment and socio-economic relations as its basic tasks. Changes in nature and climate in Siberia are of special interest in view of the global change in the Earth system. The vast continental territory of Siberia is undoubtedly a ponderable natural territorial region of Eurasian continent, which is characterized by the various combinations of climate-forming factors. Forests, water, and wetland areas are situated on a significant part of Siberia. They play planetary important regulating role due to the processes of emission and accumulation of the main greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.). Evidence of the enhanced rates of the warming observed in the region and the consequences of such warming for natural environment are undoubtedly important reason for integrated regional investigations in this region of the planet. Reported is an overview of some risk consequences of Climate/Global Change for Siberia environment as follows from results of current scientific activity in climate monitoring and modelling. At present, the challenge facing the weather and climate scientists is to improve the prediction of interactions between weather/climate and Earth system. Taking into account significantly increased computing capacity, a special attention in the report is paid to perspectives of the Earth system modelling.

Developing a model for effects of climate change on human health and health-environment interactions: Heat stress in Austin, Texas

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods In December, 2010, a consortium of EPA, Centers for Disease Control, and state and local health officials convened in Austin, Texas for a “participatory modeling workshop” on climate change effects on human health and health-environment interactions. ...

Developing a model for effects of climate change on human health and health-environment interactions: Heat stress in Austin, Texas presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods In December, 2010, a consortium of EPA, Centers for Disease Control, and state and local health officials convened in Austin, Texas for a “participatory modeling workshop” on climate change effects on human health and health-environment int...

The Climate Change Attitude Survey: Measuring Middle School Student Beliefs and Intentions to Enact Positive Environmental Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christensen, Rhonda; Knezek, Gerald

2015-01-01

The Climate Change Attitude Survey is composed of 15 Likert-type attitudinal items selected to measure students' beliefs and intentions toward the environment with a focus on climate change. This paper describes the development of the instrument and psychometric performance characteristics including reliability and validity. Data were gathered…

Alien plants confront expectations of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Hulme, Philip E

2014-09-01

The success of alien plants in novel environments questions basic assumptions about the fate of native species under climate change. Aliens generally spread faster than the velocity of climate change, display considerable phenotypic plasticity as well as adaptation to new selection pressures, and their ranges are often shaped by biotic rather than climatic factors. Given that many native species also exhibit these attributes, their risk of extinction as a result of climate change might be overestimated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and our environment: the effect on respiratory and allergic disease.

PubMed

Barne, Charles; Alexis, Neil E; Bernstein, Jonathan A; Cohn, John R; Demain, Jeffrey G; Horner, Elliot; Levetin, Estelle; Nei, Andre; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2013-03-01

Climate change is a constant and ongoing process. It is postulated that human activities have reached a point at which we are producing global climate change. It provides suggestions to help the allergist/environmental physician integrate recommendations about improvements in outdoor and indoor air quality and the likely response to predicted alterations in the earth's environment into his or her patient's treatment plan. It incorporates references retrieved from Pub Med searches for topics, including:climate change, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gasses, air pollution, particulates, black carbon, soot and sea level, as well as references contributed by the individual authors. Many changes that affect respiratory disease are anticipated.Examples of responses to climate change include energy reduction retrofits in homes that could potentially affect exposure to allergens and irritants, more hot sunny days that increase ozone-related difficulties, and rises in sea level or altered rainfall patterns that increase exposure to damp indoor environments.Climate changes can also affect ecosystems, manifested as the appearance of stinging and biting arthropods in new areas.Higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, warmer temperatures, and changes in floristic zones could potentially increase exposure to ragweed and other outdoor allergens,whereas green practices such as composting can increase allergen and irritant exposure. Finally, increased energy costs may resultin urban crowding and human source pollution, leading to changes in patterns of infectious respiratory illnesses. Improved governmental controls on airborne pollutants could lead to cleaner air and reduced respiratory diseases but will meet strong opposition because of their effect on business productivity. The allergy community must therefore adapt, as physician and research scientists always have, by anticipating the needs of patients and by adopting practices and research methods to meet changing environmental conditions.

Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016 ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA partners with over 40 data contributors from various government agencies, academic institutions, and other organizations to compile and communicate key indicators related to the causes and effects of climate change, the significance of these changes, and their possible consequences for people, the environment, and society. This is the fourth edition of the Climate Change Indicators in the United States report. To summarize and communicate key indicators related to the causes and effects of climate change.

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

Plio-Pleistocene facies environments from the KBS Member, Koobi Fora Formation: implications for climate controls on the development of lake-margin hominin habitats in the northeast Turkana Basin (northwest Kenya).

PubMed

Lepre, Christopher J; Quinn, Rhonda L; Joordens, Josephine C A; Swisher, Carl C; Feibel, Craig S

2007-11-01

Climate change is hypothesized as a cause of major events of Plio-Pleistocene East African hominin evolution, but the vertically discontinuous and laterally confined nature of the relevant geological records has led to difficulties with assessing probable links between the two. High-resolution sedimentary sequences from lacustrine settings can provide comprehensive data of environmental changes and detailed correlations with well-established orbital and marine records of climate. Hominin-bearing deposits from Koobi Fora Ridge localities in the northeast Turkana Basin of Kenya are an archive of Plio-Pleistocene lake-margin sedimentation though significant developmental junctures of northern African climates, East African environments, and hominin evolution. This study examines alluvial channel and floodplain, nearshore lacustrine, and offshore lacustrine facies environments for the approximately 136-m-thick KBS Member (Koobi Fora Formation) exposed at the Koobi Fora Ridge. Aspects of the facies environments record information on the changing hydrosedimentary dynamics of the lake margin and give insights into potential climatic controls. Seasonal/yearly climate changes are represented by the varve-like laminations in offshore mudstones and the slickensides, dish-shaped fractures, and other paleosol features overprinted on floodplain strata. Vertical shifts between facies environments, however, are interpreted to indicate lake-level fluctuations deriving from longer-term, dry-wet periods in monsoonal rainfall. Recurrence periods for the inferred lake-level changes range from about 10,000 to 50,000 years, and several are consistent with the average estimated timescales of orbital precession ( approximately 20,000 years) and obliquity ( approximately 40,000 years). KBS Member facies environments from the Koobi Fora Ridge document the development of lake-margin hominin habitats in the northeast Turkana Basin. Environmental changes in these habitats may be a result of monsoonal rainfall variations that derive from orbital insolation and/or glacial forcing.

Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment: An overview of the IPCC SREX report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Nicholls, N.; Easterling, D.; Goodess, C. M.; Kanae, S.; Kossin, J.; Luo, Y.; Marengo, J.; McInnes, K.; Rahimi, M.; Reichstein, M.; Sorteberg, A.; Vera, C.; Zhang, X.

2012-04-01

In April 2009, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) decided to prepare a new special report with involvement of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) on the topic "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation" (SREX, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/). This special report reviews the scientific literature on past and projected changes in weather and climate extremes, and the relevance of such changes to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The SREX Summary for Policymakers was approved at an IPCC Plenary session on November 14-18, 2011, and the full report is planned for release in February 2012. This presentation will provide an overview on the structure and contents of the SREX, focusing on Chapter 3: "Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment" [1]. It will in particular present the main findings of the chapter, including differences between the SREX's conclusions and those of the IPCC Fourth Assessment of 2007, and the implications of this new assessment for disaster risk reduction. Finally, aspects relevant to impacts on the biogeochemical cycles will also be addressed. [1] Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C.M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Building community resilience to climate change through public health planning.

PubMed

Bajayo, Rachael

2012-04-01

Nillumbik Shire Council, in partnership with La Trobe University, used the Municipal Public Health Planning process to develop an approach for building the resilience of local communities to climate-related stressors. The objective was to define an approach for building community resilience to climate change and to integrate this approach with the 'Environments for Health' framework. Key published papers and reports by leading experts the field were reviewed. Literature was selected based on its relevance to the subjects of community resilience and climate change and was derived from local and international publications, the vast majority published within the past two decades. Review of literature on community resilience revealed that four principal resource sets contribute to the capacity of communities to adapt in times of stress, these being: economic development; social capital; information and communication; and community competence. On the strength of findings, a framework for building each resilience resource set within each of the Environments for Health was constructed. This paper introduces the newly constructed 'Community Resilience Framework', which describes how each one of the four resilience resource sets can be developed within social, built, natural and economic environments. The Community Resilience Framework defines an approach for simultaneously creating supportive environments for health and increasing community capacity for adaptation to climate-related stressors. As such, it can be used by Municipal Public Health Planners as a guide in building community resilience to climate change.

Criminality and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Rob

2016-08-01

The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Herders' perceptions of and responses to climate change in northern Pakistan.

PubMed

Joshi, S; Jasra, W A; Ismail, M; Shrestha, R M; Yi, S L; Wu, N

2013-09-01

Migratory pastoralism is an adaptation to a harsh and unstable environment, and pastoral herders have traditionally adapted to environmental and climatic change by building on their in-depth knowledge of this environment. In the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of northern Pakistan, pastoralism, the main livelihood, is vulnerable to climate change. Little detailed information is available about climate trends and impacts in remote mountain regions; herders' perceptions of climate change can provide the information needed by policy makers to address problems and make decisions on adaptive strategies in high pastoral areas. A survey was conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan province of Pakistan to assess herders' perceptions of, and adaptation strategies to climate change. Herders' perceptions were gathered in individual interviews and focus group discussions. The herders perceived a change in climate over the past 10-15 years with longer and more intense droughts in summer, more frequent and heavier snowfall in winter, and prolonged summers and relatively shorter winters. These perceptions were validated by published scientific evidence. The herders considered that the change in climate had directly impacted pastures and then livestock by changing vegetation composition and reducing forage yield. They had adopted some adaptive strategies in response to the change such as altering the migration pattern and diversifying livelihoods. The findings show that the herder communities have practical lessons and indigenous knowledge related to rangeland management and adaptation to climate change that should be shared with the scientific community and integrated into development planning.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network

Treesearch

Enric Batllori; Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Max A. Moritz; Carol Miller

2017-01-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform...

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century

Treesearch

Solomon Z. Dobrowski; John Abatzoglou; Alan K. Swanson; Jonathan A. Greenberg; Alison R. Mynsberge; Zachary A. Holden; Michael K. Schwartz

2013-01-01

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature,...

BOREAL FOREST CARBON STOCKS AND WOOD SUPPLY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE AND SPECIES AVAILABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

The paper assesses the role in boreal forest growth played by environment. It examines past changes in climate coupled with glaciation, and future changes in climate coupled with agricultural land use and tree species availability. The objective was to define and evaluate potenti...

Climate Change and Societal Response: Livelihoods, Communities, and the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molnar, Joseph J.

2010-01-01

Climate change may be considered a natural disaster evolving in slow motion on a global scale. Increasing storm intensities, shifting rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and other manifold alterations are being experienced around the world. Climate has never been constant in any location, but human-induced changes associated…

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK.

PubMed

Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Dimitroulopoulou, Chrysanthi; Thornes, John; Lai, Ka-Man; Taylor, Jonathon; Myers, Isabella; Heaviside, Clare; Mavrogianni, Anna; Shrubsole, Clive; Chalabi, Zaid; Davies, Michael; Wilkinson, Paul

2015-12-01

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Contribution to the Emergence or Re-Emergence of Parasitic Diseases

PubMed Central

Short, Erica E; Caminade, Cyril; Thomas, Bolaji N

2017-01-01

The connection between our environment and parasitic diseases may not always be straightforward, but it exists nonetheless. This article highlights how climate as a component of our environment, or more specifically climate change, has the capability to drive parasitic disease incidence and prevalence worldwide. There are both direct and indirect implications of climate change on the scope and distribution of parasitic organisms and their associated vectors and host species. We aim to encompass a large body of literature to demonstrate how a changing climate will perpetuate, or perhaps exacerbate, public health issues and economic stagnation due to parasitic diseases. The diseases examined include those caused by ingested protozoa and soil helminths, malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, schistosomiasis, and echinococcus, as well as parasites affecting livestock. It is our goal to impress on the scientific community the magnitude a changing climate can have on public health in relation to parasitic disease burden. Once impending climate changes are now upon us, and as we see these events unfold, it is critical to create management plans that will protect the health and quality of life of the people living in the communities that will be significantly affected. PMID:29317829

Climate Change Contribution to the Emergence or Re-Emergence of Parasitic Diseases.

PubMed

Short, Erica E; Caminade, Cyril; Thomas, Bolaji N

2017-01-01

The connection between our environment and parasitic diseases may not always be straightforward, but it exists nonetheless. This article highlights how climate as a component of our environment, or more specifically climate change, has the capability to drive parasitic disease incidence and prevalence worldwide. There are both direct and indirect implications of climate change on the scope and distribution of parasitic organisms and their associated vectors and host species. We aim to encompass a large body of literature to demonstrate how a changing climate will perpetuate, or perhaps exacerbate, public health issues and economic stagnation due to parasitic diseases. The diseases examined include those caused by ingested protozoa and soil helminths, malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, schistosomiasis, and echinococcus, as well as parasites affecting livestock. It is our goal to impress on the scientific community the magnitude a changing climate can have on public health in relation to parasitic disease burden. Once impending climate changes are now upon us, and as we see these events unfold, it is critical to create management plans that will protect the health and quality of life of the people living in the communities that will be significantly affected.

Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

While there is a large consensus that plant-plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation-climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant-plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change.

Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change

PubMed Central

Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A.; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

While there is a large consensus that plant–plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation–climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant–plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change. PMID:25161660

A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

Treesearch

Jill F. Johnstone; Eliot J.B. McIntire; Eric J. Pedersen; Gregory King; Michael J.F. Pisaric

2010-01-01

Changes in Earth's environment are expected to stimulate changes in the composition and structure of ecosystems, but it is still unclear how the dynamics of these responses will play out over time. In long-lived forest systems, communities of established individuals may be resistant to respond to directional climate change, but may be highly sensitive to climate...

Plio-Pleistocene vegetation response on orbitally forced climatic cycles in Southern Europe - implications for early human environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruch, Angela; Bertini, Adele

2013-04-01

The pace and causes of the early human colonization, in one or several migratory waves from Africa in new environments of the Eurasian continent during the Early Pleistocene, are still a matter of debate. However, climate change is considered a major driving factor of hominin evolution and dispersal patterns. In fact directly or indirectly by its severe influence on vegetation, physiography of landscape, and animal distribution, climate modulates the availability of resources. Plant fossils usually are rare or even absent at hominin sites. Thus, direct evidence on local vegetation and environment is generally missing. Independent from such localities, pollen profiles from the Mediterranean realm show the response of regional vegetation on global climate changes and cyclicity, with distinct spatial and temporal differences. Furthermore, plant fossils provide proxies for climate quantification that can be compared to the global signal, and add data to understanding the regional differentiation of Mediterranean environments. In this presentation we will discuss various palaeobotanical data from Southern Europe to assess Early Pleistocene climate and vegetation in time and space as part of the environment during the first expansions of early humans out of Africa.

Tree growth and climate in the Pacific Northwest, North America: a broad-scale analysis of changing growth environments

Treesearch

Whitney L. Albright; David L. Peterson

2013-01-01

Climate change in the 21st century will affect tree growth in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, although complex climate–growth relationships make it difficult to identify how radial growth will respond across different species distributions. We used a novel method to examine potential growth responses to climate change at a broad geographical scale with a...

Experience of the Paris Research Consortium Climate-Environment-Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joussaume, Sylvie; Pacteau, Chantal; Vanderlinden, Jean Paul

2016-04-01

It is now widely recognized that the complexity of climate change issues translates itself into a need for interdisciplinary approaches to science. This allows to first achieve a more comprehensive vision of climate change and, second, to better inform the decision-making processes. However, it seems that willingness alone is rarely enough to implement interdisciplinarity. The purpose of this presentation is to mobilize reflexivity to revisit and analyze the experience of the Paris Consortium for Climate-Environment-Society. The French Consortium Climate-Environment-Society aims to develop, fund and coordinate interdisciplinary research into climate change and its impacts on society and environment. Launched in 2007, the consortium relies on the research expertise of 17 laboratories and federation in the Paris area working mainly in the fields of climatology, hydrology, ecology, health sciences, and the humanities and social sciences. As examples, economists and climatologists have studied greenhouse gas emission scenarios compatible with climate stabilization goals. Historical records have provided both knowledge about past climate change and vulnerability of societies. Some regions, as the Mediterranean and the Sahel, are particularly vulnerable and already have to cope with water availability, agricultural production and even health issues. A project showed that millet production in West Africa is expected to decline due to warming in a higher proportion than observed in recent decades. Climate change also raises many questions concerning health: combined effects of warming and air quality, impacts on the production of pollens and allergies, impacts on infectious diseases. All these issues lead to a need for approaches integrating different disciplines. Furthermore, climate change impacts many ecosystems which, in turn, affect its evolution. Our experience shows that interdisciplinarity supposes, in order to take shape, the conjunction between programming choices, supporting this kind of approach, and autonomy given to experimenting with interdisciplinary practices. The interdisciplinary approach does not put itself in place and requires a collective reflection on the objectives and practices. Many tools exist to support this process, in particular to mature interdisciplinarity. This incubation period allows the various disciplines to learn to know each other and to build a common conceptual and methodological basis.

Adapting Buildings for Indoor Air Quality in a Changing Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change presents many challenges, including the production of severe weather events. These events and efforts to minimize their effects through weatherization can adversely affect indoor environments.

Climate-based seed zones for Mexico: guiding reforestation under observed and projected climate change

Treesearch

Dante Castellanos-Acuña; Kenneth W. Vance-Borland; J. Bradley St. Clair; Andreas Hamann; Javier López-Upton; Erika Gómez-Pineda; Juan Manuel Ortega-Rodríguez; Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero

2018-01-01

Seed zones for forest tree species are a widely used tool in reforestation programs to ensure that seedlings are well adapted to their planting environments. Here, we propose a climate-based seed zone system for Mexico to address observed and projected climate change. The proposed seed zone classification is based on bands of climate variables often related to genetic...

Applying "Climate" system to teaching basic climatology and raising public awareness of climate change issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

2016-04-01

While there is a strong demand for innovation in digital learning, available training programs in the environmental sciences have no time to adapt to rapid changes in the domain content. A joint group of scientists and university teachers develops and implements an educational environment for new learning experiences in basics of climatic science and its applications. This so-called virtual learning laboratory "Climate" contains educational materials and interactive training courses developed to provide undergraduate and graduate students with profound understanding of changes in regional climate and environment. The main feature of this Laboratory is that students perform their computational tasks on climate modeling and evaluation and assessment of climate change using the typical tools of the "Climate" information-computational system, which are usually used by real-life practitioners performing such kind of research. Students have an opportunity to perform computational laboratory works using information-computational tools of the system and improve skills of their usage simultaneously with mastering the subject. We did not create an artificial learning environment to pass the trainings. On the contrary, the main purpose of association of the educational block and computational information system was to familiarize students with the real existing technologies for monitoring and analysis of data on the state of the climate. Trainings are based on technologies and procedures which are typical for Earth system sciences. Educational courses are designed to permit students to conduct their own investigations of ongoing and future climate changes in a manner that is essentially identical to the techniques used by national and international climate research organizations. All trainings are supported by lectures, devoted to the basic aspects of modern climatology, including analysis of current climate change and its possible impacts ensuring effective links between theory and practice. Along with its usage in graduate and postgraduate education, "Climate" is used as a framework for a developed basic information course on climate change for common public. In this course basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are described for non-specialists. The course will also include links to relevant information resources on topical issues of Earth Sciences and a number of case studies, which are carried out for a selected region to consolidate the received knowledge.

Experiential-Based Climate Change Education: Fostering Students' Knowledge and Motivation towards the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karpudewan, Mageswary; Mohd Ali Khan, Nur Sabrina

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most important environmental issues affecting our society today and we need to educate the citizens about the impact on human lives. An attempt was made to integrate experiential-based climate change education into the teaching and learning of secondary school Biology lessons on the topic of "Endangered…

Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storksdieck, Martin

2014-01-01

Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Treesearch

Aline Frank; Glenn T. Howe; Christoph Sperisen; Peter Brang; Brad St. Clair; Dirk R. Schmatz; Caroline Heiri

2017-01-01

Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest...

Social controversy belongs in the climate science classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Elizabeth M.; Tsurusaki, Blakely K.

2014-04-01

Scientists, educators and stakeholders are grappling with how to best approach climate change education for diverse audiences, a task made difficult due to persistent social controversy. This Perspective examines how sociocultural learning theories can inform the design and implementation of climate change education experiences for learners with varied understandings of and attitudes towards climate change. The literature demonstrates that explicitly addressing learners' social and community experiences, values and knowledge supports understandings of and increased concern about climate change. Science learning environments that situate climate change in its social context can support conceptual understandings, shift attitudes and increase the participation of diverse communities in responding to climate change. Examples are provided of successful programmes that attend to social dimensions and learners' previous experiences, including experiences of social controversy.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

PubMed Central

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-01-01

Background The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial. PMID:20052427

Climate Change Education: Quantitatively Assessing the Impact of a Botanical Garden as an Informal Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sellmann, Daniela; Bogner, Franz X.

2013-01-01

Although informal learning environments have been studied extensively, ours is one of the first studies to quantitatively assess the impact of learning in botanical gardens on students' cognitive achievement. We observed a group of 10th graders participating in a one-day educational intervention on climate change implemented in a botanical garden.…

Communicating Urban Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, S.; Crowley, K.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Hoffstadt, R.; Labriole, M.; Shugart, E.; Steiner, M.; Climate; Urban Systems Partnership

2011-12-01

While cities cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, over 50% of the world's people live in urban environments. Precisely because of their population density, cities can play a large role in reducing or exacerbating the global impact of climate change. The actions of cities could hold the key to slowing down climate change. Urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies. However, messaging around these strategies has not been comprehensive and adaptation to climate change requires local knowledge, capacity and a high level of coordination. Unless urban populations understand climate change and its impacts it is unlikely that cities will be able to successfully implement policies that reduce anthropogenic climate change. Informal and formal educational institutions in urban environments can serve as catalysts when partnering with climate scientists, educational research groups, and public policy makers to disseminate information about climate change and its impacts on urban audiences. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is an interdisciplinary network designed to assess and meet the needs and challenges of educating urban audiences about climate change. CUSP brings together organizations in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Queens, NY and Washington, DC to forge links with informal and formal education partners, city government, and policy makers. Together this network will create and disseminate learner-focused climate education programs and resources for urban audiences that, while distinct, are thematically and temporally coordinated, resulting in the communication of clear and consistent information and learning experiences about climate science to a wide public audience. Working at a community level CUSP will bring coordinated programming directly into neighborhoods presenting the issues of global climate change in a highly local context. The project is currently exploring a number of models for community programming and this session will present early results of these efforts while engaging participants in exploring approaches to connecting urban communities and their local concerns to the issues of global climate change.

Climate impact and adaptation of husbandry on the Mongolian plateau: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, L.; Cui, X.

2015-12-01

There has been an evolution in the treatment of regional aspects of climate and land use change: from a patchwork of case examples towards a more systematic coverage of regional issues at continental and sub-continental scales in the latest Intergovernmental panel on climate change, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The region of Inner Asia has long been characterised by important cultural, economic, and ecological ties that transcend international borders, including a common steppe environment, a long history of mobile pastoralism, as well as comparable experiences of socialist and postsocialist transformation. In this research, we focused on the study of the Mongolian Plateau located in eastern Inner Asia, since climate change has already had large impacts on grassland and local households. We explored how the vegetation and animal husbandry responses to climate change in comparison between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. Our central question then was: how are people in different parts of Inner Mongolia and the Republic of Mongolia are experiencing and responding to climate change across a common grassland environment as a result of the differing social, economic, political, and ecological conditions within each particular state? We believe that comparative and interdisciplinary investigation offers the best prospect for the evaluation of the differing trajectories currently being followed by each Inner Asian state, and the anticipation of the likely effects on the societies and environment of the region in the future.

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird.

PubMed

Ruegg, Kristen; Bay, Rachael A; Anderson, Eric C; Saracco, James F; Harrigan, Ryan J; Whitfield, Mary; Paxton, Eben H; Smith, Thomas B

2018-05-09

Few regions have been more severely impacted by climate change in the USA than the Desert Southwest. Here, we use ecological genomics to assess the potential for adaptation to rising global temperatures in a widespread songbird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), and find the endangered desert southwestern subspecies (E. t. extimus) most vulnerable to future climate change. Highly significant correlations between present abundance and estimates of genomic vulnerability - the mismatch between current and predicted future genotype-environment relationships - indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change. Links between climate-associated genotypes and genes important to thermal tolerance in birds provide a potential mechanism for adaptation to temperature extremes. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of genotype-environment relationships into landscape-scale models of climate vulnerability can facilitate more precise predictions of climate impacts and help guide conservation in threatened and endangered groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Landsat Surface Reflectance Climate Data Records

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2014-01-01

Landsat Surface Reflectance Climate Data Records (CDRs) are high level Landsat data products that support land surface change studies. Climate Data Records, as defined by the National Research Council, are a time series of measurements with sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to identify climate variability and change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using the valuable 40-year Landsat archive to create CDRs that can be used to document changes to Earth’s terrestrial environment.

Towards climate justice: how do the most vulnerable weigh environment-economy trade-offs?

PubMed

Running, Katrina

2015-03-01

The world's poor are especially vulnerable to environmental disasters, including the adverse consequences of climate change. This creates a challenge for climate justice advocates who seek to ensure that those least responsible for causing climate change do not bear unwanted burdens of mitigation. One way to promote climate justice could be to pay particular attention to the environmental policy preferences of citizens from poorer, lower-emitting countries. This paper examines opinions on environment-economy trade-offs and willingness to make personal financial contributions to protect the environment among residents of 42 developed and developing countries using data from the 2005-2008 World Values Survey, the 2010 Climate Risk Index, and World Bank development indicators. Results reveal that individuals in developing countries are less likely to support policies to prioritize environmental protection over economic growth but are more willing to donate personal income for pro-environmental efforts compared to citizens of more developed nations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Non-Cholera Vibrios: The Microbial Barometer of Climate Change.

PubMed

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin; Gonzalez-Escalona, Narjol; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2017-01-01

There is a growing interest in the role of climate change in driving the spread of waterborne infectious diseases, such as those caused by bacterial pathogens. One particular group of pathogenic bacteria - vibrios - are a globally important cause of diseases in humans and aquatic animals. These Gram-negative bacteria, including the species Vibrio vulnificus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholerae, grow in warm, low-salinity waters, and their abundance in the natural environment mirrors ambient environmental temperatures. In a rapidly warming marine environment, there are greater numbers of human infections, and most notably outbreaks linked to extreme weather events such as heatwaves in temperate regions such as Northern Europe. Because the growth of pathogenic vibrios in the natural environment is largely dictated by temperature, we argue that this group of pathogens represents an important and tangible barometer of climate change in marine systems. We provide a number of specific examples of the impacts of climate change on this group of bacteria and their associated diseases, and discuss advanced strategies to improve our understanding of these emerging waterborne diseases through the integration of microbiological, genomic, epidemiological, climatic, and ocean sciences. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.

PubMed

Messaoud, Yassine; Chen, Han Y H

2011-02-16

Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S.) in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation). As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree species, but also their growing spatial environment.

Climate of the Arctic marine environment.

PubMed

Walsh, John E

2008-03-01

The climate of the Arctic marine environment is characterized by strong seasonality in the incoming solar radiation and by tremendous spatial variations arising from a variety of surface types, including open ocean, sea ice, large islands, and proximity to major landmasses. Interannual and decadal-scale variations are prominent features of Arctic climate, complicating the distinction between natural and anthropogenically driven variations. Nevertheless, climate models consistently indicate that the Arctic is the most climatically sensitive region of the Northern Hemisphere, especially near the sea ice margins. The Arctic marine environment has shown changes over the past several decades, and these changes are part of a broader global warming that exceeds the range of natural variability over the past 1000 years. Record minima of sea ice coverage during the past few summers and increased melt from Greenland have important implications for the hydrographic regime of the Arctic marine environment. The recent changes in the atmosphere (temperature, precipitation, pressure), sea ice, and ocean appear to be a coordinated response to systematic variations of the large-scale atmospheric circulation, superimposed on a general warming that is likely associated with increasing greenhouse gases. The changes have been sufficiently large in some sectors (e.g., the Bering/Chukchi Seas) that consequences for marine ecosystems appear to be underway. Global climate models indicate an additional warming of several degrees Celsius in much of the Arctic marine environment by 2050. However, the warming is seasonal (largest in autumn and winter), spatially variable, and closely associated with further retreat of sea ice. Additional changes predicted for 2050 are a general decrease of sea level pressure (largest in the Bering sector) and an increase of precipitation. While predictions of changes in storminess cannot be made with confidence, the predicted reduction of sea ice cover will almost certainly lead to increased oceanic mixing, ocean wave generation, and coastal flooding.

Developing a protocol for long-term population monitoring and habitat projections for a climate-sensitive sentinel species to track ecosystem change and species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beers, A.

2016-12-01

As a response to ongoing climate change, many species have started to shift their ranges poleward and toward higher elevations and mountain environments are predicted to experience especially rapid climatic changes. Because of this, there is likely a greater risk of habitat loss and local extinctions for species at high elevations compared to species at lower elevations. Among those potentially threatened habitat specialists is the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a climate sensitive indicator of climate change effects which may already be experiencing climate driven extirpations. Pikas are considered sentinels, indicators of greater ecosystem change. Changes in their distribution speaks to changes in availability of resources they require and shifts in the environment. Pika presence is closely tied to sub-surface ice features that act as a temperature buffer and water source. Those sub-surface ice features are critical in water cycling and long-term water storage and drive downstream hydrological and ecological processes. Understanding how this species responds to climate change therefore provides a model to inform landscape level conservation and management decisions. Pikas may be particularly vulnerable in parts of Colorado, including Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) and the Niwot Ridge LTER (NWT), where they may face population collapse as habitat suitability and connectivity both decline in response to various possible climate change scenarios, in large part because of cold stress and declining functional connectivity. Because of their potential role as an ecosystem indicator, their risk for decline, and how limitations to their survival likely vary across their range, management groups can use place based models of habitat suitability for pikas or other sentinel species in designing long term monitoring protocols to detect ecosystem responses to climate change. In this project we used remotely sensed data, occupancy surveys, and a random tessellation stratification to design a protocol for ROMO and NWT that best suits those environments. We also demonstrate the efficacy of habitat models based on remote sensing and their potential application toward tracking ecosystem change and species range shifts.

GSD Update: Checking the range for signs of climate change in the past, present and future

Treesearch

Lisa-Natalie Anjozian

2011-01-01

The July 2011 inaugural issue of GSDUpdate: Checking the Range for Signs of Climate Change In the Past, Present and Future, a research review of the Program, focuses on the efforts toward understanding the role of climate in shaping the environment.

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

Monisha Shah | NREL

Science.gov Websites

building Research Interests International and domestic climate change policy Intersections between energy , environment, and economics The impact of climate change and energy policy design on the deployment of energy

A walk on the tundra: Host-parasite interactions in an extreme environment.

PubMed

Kutz, Susan J; Hoberg, Eric P; Molnár, Péter K; Dobson, Andy; Verocai, Guilherme G

2014-08-01

Climate change is occurring very rapidly in the Arctic, and the processes that have taken millions of years to evolve in this very extreme environment are now changing on timescales as short as decades. These changes are dramatic, subtle and non-linear. In this article, we discuss the evolving insights into host-parasite interactions for wild ungulate species, specifically, muskoxen and caribou, in the North American Arctic. These interactions occur in an environment that is characterized by extremes in temperature, high seasonality, and low host species abundance and diversity. We believe that lessons learned in this system can guide wildlife management and conservation throughout the Arctic, and can also be generalized to more broadly understand host-parasite interactions elsewhere. We specifically examine the impacts of climate change on host-parasite interactions and focus on: (I) the direct temperature effects on parasites; (II) the importance of considering the intricacies of host and parasite ecology for anticipating climate change impacts; and (III) the effect of shifting ecological barriers and corridors. Insights gained from studying the history and ecology of host-parasite systems in the Arctic will be central to understanding the role that climate change is playing in these more complex systems.

A walk on the tundra: Host–parasite interactions in an extreme environment

PubMed Central

Kutz, Susan J.; Hoberg, Eric P.; Molnár, Péter K.; Dobson, Andy; Verocai, Guilherme G.

2014-01-01

Climate change is occurring very rapidly in the Arctic, and the processes that have taken millions of years to evolve in this very extreme environment are now changing on timescales as short as decades. These changes are dramatic, subtle and non-linear. In this article, we discuss the evolving insights into host–parasite interactions for wild ungulate species, specifically, muskoxen and caribou, in the North American Arctic. These interactions occur in an environment that is characterized by extremes in temperature, high seasonality, and low host species abundance and diversity. We believe that lessons learned in this system can guide wildlife management and conservation throughout the Arctic, and can also be generalized to more broadly understand host–parasite interactions elsewhere. We specifically examine the impacts of climate change on host–parasite interactions and focus on: (I) the direct temperature effects on parasites; (II) the importance of considering the intricacies of host and parasite ecology for anticipating climate change impacts; and (III) the effect of shifting ecological barriers and corridors. Insights gained from studying the history and ecology of host–parasite systems in the Arctic will be central to understanding the role that climate change is playing in these more complex systems. PMID:25180164

Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen

2013-02-01

Society's response to every dimension of global climate change is mediated by culture. We analyse new research across the social sciences to show that climate change threatens cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods that include the material and lived aspects of culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place. We find, furthermore, that there are important cultural dimensions to how societies respond and adapt to climate-related risks. We demonstrate how culture mediates changes in the environment and changes in societies, and we elucidate shortcomings in contemporary adaptation policy.

Calibrating vascular plant abundance for detecting future climate changes in Oregon and Washington, USA

Treesearch

Timothy J. Brady; Vicente J. Monleon; Andrew N. Gray

2010-01-01

We propose using future vascular plant abundances as indicators of future climate in a way analogous to the reconstruction of past environments by many palaeoecologists. To begin monitoring future short-term climate changes in the forests of Oregon and Washington, USA, we developed a set of transfer functions for a present-day calibration set consisting of climate...

Climate change and skin.

PubMed

Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

2013-02-01

Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many dermatoses.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

Treesearch

L.G. Crozier; A.P. Hendry; P.W. Lawson; T.P. Quinn; N.J. Mantua; J. Battin; R.G. Shaw; R.B. Huey

2008-01-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (...

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Study entitled The Effect of Climate Change on Indoor Air Quality and Public Health.

EPA Science Inventory

The Institute of Medicine of the NAS is conducting a study to evaluate the state of scientific understanding of the effects of climate change on indoor air quality and public health. General topics may include the likely impacts of climate change in the U.S. on the indoor environ...

Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

2010-01-01

Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2005-01-01

Nineteen scientists from leading research institutes in the United States collaborated to estimate how California’s environment and economy would respond to global climate change. A scientist from the PNW Research Station led efforts to estimate effects on vegetation, carbon, and fire.To quantify the range of the possible effects of climate change over the...

Infusion of Climate Change and Geospatial Science Concepts into Environmental and Biological Science Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji Bhaskar, M. S.; Rosenzweig, J.; Shishodia, S.

2017-12-01

The objective of our activity is to improve the students understanding and interpretation of geospatial science and climate change concepts and its applications in the field of Environmental and Biological Sciences in the College of Science Engineering and Technology (COEST) at Texas Southern University (TSU) in Houston, TX. The courses of GIS for Environment, Ecology and Microbiology were selected for the curriculum infusion. A total of ten GIS hands-on lab modules, along with two NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) lab modules on climate change were implemented in the "GIS for Environment" course. GIS and Google Earth Labs along with climate change lectures were infused into Microbiology and Ecology courses. Critical thinking and empirical skills of the students were assessed in all the courses. The student learning outcomes of these courses includes the ability of students to interpret the geospatial maps and the student demonstration of knowledge of the basic principles and concepts of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and climate change. At the end of the courses, students developed a comprehensive understanding of the geospatial data, its applications in understanding climate change and its interpretation at the local and regional scales during multiple years.

Global Climate Change: Using Field Studies to Prepare the Next Generation of Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, T. C.; Hare, J.

2004-05-01

Global Climate Change is a new and invigorating concept in the pre-college classroom. To some it portends the altering of the Earth's climate by introducing anthropogenic influences and for others the natural progression of the Earth's systems. Regardless, climate change involves a plethora of environmental interactions and comprehension is a challenge for both teachers and students. This paper addresses a field studies program that prepares students to complete research projects associated with climate models affecting montane environments. It emphasizes a partnership between researchers from universities, government agencies, and public schools and their support of pre-college students in inquiry learning and research activities. Beginning in 1994 students from a Pennsylvania high school and schools in Scotland have engaged in biannual holistic studies of montane and glacial environments with the objective of completing investigations concerning the energy budgets of these environments. This paper will focus on 2000 and 2002, and the support and partnership of Dr. Jeff Hare and CIRES in designing, supporting, and providing professional interpretations,while assisting teachers and students toward the completion of recognized papers regarding climate studies. Introducing students to the employment and operation of complex field equipment will be discussed.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review.

PubMed

Hellberg, Rosalee S; Chu, Eric

2016-08-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons

2010-11-16

Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve amore » climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.« less

Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

PubMed

Boxall, Alistair B A; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D; Haygarth, Philip M; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M H; Williams, Richard J

2009-04-01

Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

An ecological approach to promoting population mental health and well-being--a response to the challenge of climate change.

PubMed

Nurse, Jo; Basher, Damian; Bone, Angie; Bird, William

2010-01-01

Climate change can be viewed as human-induced change to climate and depletion of natural systems. It potentially the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. It is predicted to have wide-ranging impacts upon human mental health and well-being, through changes and challenges to people's environment, socioeconomic structures and physical security. Even the most conservative estimates of the health impacts are extremely alarming. Increasingly, the causes of poor human health and environmental damage are related. This implies that there are common solutions. For example, there are co-benefits to human health and biodiversity from mitigating and adapting to climate change (e.g. promoting active transport and reducing car use reduces CO2 emissions, benefits our environment and reduces morbidity and mortality associated with a sedentary lifestyle). This article outlines how climate change impacts upon mental health and well-being. It introduces ecological concepts, applies these to public health and outlines their implications in transforming the way that we prioritize and deliver public health in order to promote both environmental and human health. Evidence, from psychology and neuroscience, suggests that the perception of being disconnected from our inner selves, from each other and from our environment has contributed to poor mental and physical health. We argue that we must transform the way we understand mental health and well-being and integrate it into action against climate change. We describe a Public Health Framework for Developing Well-Being, based on the principles of ecological public health.

Links between the built environment, climate and population health: interdisciplinary environmental change research in New York City.

PubMed

Rosenthal, Joyce Klein; Sclar, Elliott D; Kinney, Patrick L; Knowlton, Kim; Crauderueff, Robert; Brandt-Rauf, Paul W

2007-10-01

Global climate change is expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, placing greater stress and impacts on multiple social and biophysical systems, including population health, coastal development, urban infrastructure, energy demand, and water supplies. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanisation of poverty exists, with increased challenges for urban populations and local governance to protect and sustain the wellbeing of growing cities. In the context of these 2 overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritised for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive responses to climate change. This article discusses 2 recent initiatives of The Earth Institute at Columbia University (EI) as examples of research that integrates the methods and objectives of several disciplines, including environmental health science and urban planning, to understand the potential public health impacts of global climate change and mitigative measures for the more localised effects of the urban heat island in the New York City metropolitan region. These efforts embody 2 distinct research approaches. The New York Climate & Health Project created a new integrated modeling system to assess the public health impacts of climate and land use change in the metropolitan region. The Cool City Project aims for more applied policy-oriented research that incorporates the local knowledge of community residents to understand the costs and benefits of interventions in the built environment that might serve to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change and variability, and protect urban populations from health stressors associated with summertime heat. Both types of research are potentially useful for understanding the impacts of environmental change at the urban scale, the policies needed to address these challenges, and to train scholars capable of collaborative approaches across the social and biophysical sciences.

Climate change: Evolving technologies, U.S. business, and the world economy in the 21. century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harter, J.J.

1996-12-31

The International Climate Change Partnership presents this report as one of its efforts to present current information on climate change to the public. One often hears about the expenses entailed in protecting the environment. Unfortunately, one hears less about the economic benefits that may be associated with prudent actions to counter environmental threats. This conference is particularly useful because it focuses attention on profitable business opportunities in the United States and elsewhere that arise from practical efforts to mitigate the risks of climate change. The report contains a brief synopsis of each speaker`s address on climate change.

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Madrigal-González, Jaime; Andivia, Enrique; Zavala, Miguel A; Stoffel, Markus; Calatayud, Joaquín; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan

2018-06-14

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

Adaptation and mitigation

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Kenneth E. Skog; Duncan C. McKinley; Richard A. Birdsey; Christopher W. Swanston; Sarah J. Hines; Christopher W. Woodall; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; David L. Peterson; James M. Vose

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystems respond to natural climatic variability and human-caused climate change in ways that are adverse as well as beneficial to the biophysical environment and to society. Adaptation refers to responses or adjustments made—whether passive, reactive, or anticipatory—to climatic variability and change (Carter et al. 1994). Many adjustments occur whether...

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-09-22

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

Teaching Children's Rights and Climate Change with the Support of Act for Climate Web-Based Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gkotzos, Dimitrios

2017-01-01

This article presents an effort to integrate the issues of climate change and children's rights into the Greek primary school curriculum through the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The curriculum Act for Climate was developed through the lens of children's rights and with the support of a web-based learning environment…

Implications of global climate change for housing, human settlements and public health.

PubMed

Hales, Simon; Baker, Michael; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Menne, Bettina; Woodruff, Rosalie; Woodward, Alistair

2007-01-01

Global climate change has profound implications for human societies. The present---ecologically unsustainable--trajectory of human development fails to provide for the basic needs of a substantial fraction of the global population, while diminishing the prospects for future generations. Human-caused climate change has already begun to affect weather patterns, physical and biological phenomena, and vulnerable human communities. Because the social processes of production and consumption have their own momentum, and because carbon dioxide has a long atmospheric lifetime, further climate change is inevitable over the coming century, even allowing for the adoption of mitigation measures. This situation implies that we should also try to reduce, and where possible to prevent, the adverse effects of climate changes by planned adaptation. Will human settlements be able to provide a healthy living environment and shelter from extreme climate events, such as cyclones and heat waves? In this paper, we review the nexus between human health, climate change, and the planning of housing and human settlements. We conclude that adapting to a rapidly changing global environment will be a major challenge, in the context of increasing population and per capita consumption, without increasing pressures on natural systems. Energy-efficient cities and the creation of opportunities for poor countries will be important elements of people centered, ecologically sustainable, development in the twenty-first century.

Natural selection on thermal performance in a novel thermal environment

PubMed Central

Logan, Michael L.; Cox, Robert M.; Calsbeek, Ryan

2014-01-01

Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. PMID:25225361

Natural selection on thermal performance in a novel thermal environment.

PubMed

Logan, Michael L; Cox, Robert M; Calsbeek, Ryan

2014-09-30

Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming.

Stochastic sensitivity analysis of nitrogen pollution to climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaoying; Tan, Lit; He, Ruimin; Fu, Guangtao; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Qun; Wang, Guoqing

2017-12-01

It is increasingly recognized that climate change could impose both direct and indirect impacts on the quality of the water environment. Previous studies have mostly concentrated on evaluating the impacts of climate change on non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds. Few studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the water quality of river basins with complex point and non-point pollution sources. In view of the gap, this paper aims to establish a framework for stochastic assessment of the sensitivity of water quality to future climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources. A sub-daily soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from multiple point and non-point pollution sources in the upper Huai River basin of China. A weather generator was used to produce 50 years of synthetic daily weather data series for all 25 combinations of precipitation (changes by - 10, 0, 10, 20, and 30%) and temperature change (increases by 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 °C) scenarios. The generated daily rainfall series was disaggregated into the hourly scale and then used to drive the sub-daily SWAT model to simulate the nitrogen cycle under different climate change scenarios. Our results in the study region have indicated that (1) both total nitrogen (TN) loads and concentrations are insensitive to temperature change; (2) TN loads are highly sensitive to precipitation change, while TN concentrations are moderately sensitive; (3) the impacts of climate change on TN concentrations are more spatiotemporally variable than its impacts on TN loads; and (4) wide distributions of TN loads and TN concentrations under individual climate change scenario illustrate the important role of climatic variability in affecting water quality conditions. In summary, the large variability in SWAT simulation results within and between each climate change scenario highlights the uncertainty of the impacts of climate change and the need to incorporate extreme conditions in managing water environment and developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Permafrost Meta-Omics and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackelprang, Rachel; Saleska, Scott R.; Jacobsen, Carsten Suhr; Jansson, Janet K.; Taş, Neslihan

2016-06-01

Permanently frozen soil, or permafrost, covers a large portion of the Earth's terrestrial surface and represents a unique environment for cold-adapted microorganisms. As permafrost thaws, previously protected organic matter becomes available for microbial degradation. Microbes that decompose soil carbon produce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, contributing substantially to climate change. Next-generation sequencing and other -omics technologies offer opportunities to discover the mechanisms by which microbial communities regulate the loss of carbon and the emission of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost regions. Analysis of nucleic acids and proteins taken directly from permafrost-associated soils has provided new insights into microbial communities and their functions in Arctic environments that are increasingly impacted by climate change. In this article we review current information from various molecular -omics studies on permafrost microbial ecology and explore the relevance of these insights to our current understanding of the dynamics of permafrost loss due to climate change.

How will climate change affect spatial planning in agricultural and natural environments? Examples from three Dutch case study regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blom-Zandstra, Margaretha; Paulissen, Maurice; Agricola, Herman; Schaap, Ben

2009-11-01

Climate change will place increasing pressure on the functioning of agricultural and natural areas in the Netherlands. Strategies to adapt these areas to stress are likely to require changes in landscape structure and management. In densely populated countries such as the Netherlands, the increased pressure of climate change on agricultural and natural areas will inevitably lead, through the necessity of spatial adaptation measures, to spatial conflicts between the sectors of agriculture and nature. An integrated approach to climate change adaptation may therefore be beneficial in limiting such sectoral conflicts. We explored the conflicting and synergistic properties of different climate adaptation strategies for agricultural and natural environments in the Netherlands. To estimate the feasibility and effectiveness of the strategies, we focussed on three case study regions with contrasting landscape structural, natural and agricultural characteristics. For each region, we estimated the expected climate-related threats and associated trade-offs for arable farming and natural areas for 2040. We describe a number of spatial and integrated adaptation strategies to mitigate these threats. Formulating adaptation strategies requires consultation of different stakeholders and deliberation between different interests. We discuss some trade-offs involved in this decision-making.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

2018-08-15

The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nature talk in an Appalachian newspaper: What environmental discourse analysis reveals about efforts to address exurbanization and climate change

Treesearch

Brian J. Burke; Meredith Welch-Devine; Seth Gustafson

2015-01-01

As the people of Southern Appalachia confront the challenges of climate change and exurban development, their foundational beliefs about the environment and human-environment relations will significantly shape the types of individual and collective action that they imagine and pursue. In this paper, we use critical discourse analysis of an influential small-town...

Spatio-temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Exposito-Alonso, Moises; Brennan, Adrian C; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos; Picó, F Xavier

2018-06-27

The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness-related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life-history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north-western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north-western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north-western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Climate Change and Our Environment: The Effect on Respiratory and Allergic Disease

PubMed Central

Barnes, Charles S.; Alexis, Neil E.; Bernstein, Jonathan A.; Cohn, John R.; Demain, Jeffrey G.; Horner, Elliott; Levetin, Estelle; Nel, Andre; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2013-01-01

Climate change is a constant and ongoing process. It is postulated that human activities have reached a point at which we are producing global climate change. This article provides suggestions to help the allergist/environmental physician integrate recommendations about improvements in outdoor and indoor air quality and the likely response to predicted alterations in the earth’s environment into their patient’s treatment plan. Many changes that affect respiratory disease are anticipated. Examples of responses to climate change include energy reduction retrofits in homes that could potentially affect exposure to allergens and irritants, more hot sunny days that increase ozone-related difficulties, and rises in sea level or altered rainfall patterns that increase exposure to damp indoor environments. Climate changes can also affect ecosystems, manifested as the appearance of stinging and biting arthropods in new areas. Higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, warmer temperatures, and changes in floristic zones could potentially increase exposure to ragweed and other outdoor allergens, whereas green practices such as composting can increase allergen and irritant exposure. Finally, increased energy costs may result in urban crowding and human source pollution, leading to changes in patterns of infectious respiratory illnesses. Improved governmental controls on airborne pollutants could lead to cleaner air and reduced respiratory diseases but will meet strong opposition because of their effect on business productivity. The allergy community must therefore adapt, as physician and research scientists always have, by anticipating the needs of patients and by adopting practices and research methods to meet changing environmental conditions. PMID:23687635

Changing the Educational Climate: Children, Citizenship and Learning Contexts?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

David, Miriam E.

2007-01-01

The changing climate of children's education at the turn of the twenty-first century through sociocultural and global political changes is my focus of attention. I will discuss the changing social context and environments for research on children and education, considering various transformations in the social and policy contexts that have led to…

Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture

PubMed Central

Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D.; Haygarth, Philip M.; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R. Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S.; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A.; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B.; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M.H.; Williams, Richard J.

2009-01-01

Objective Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes. PMID:19440487

Assessing climate change and health vulnerability at the local level: Travis County, Texas.

PubMed

Prudent, Natasha; Houghton, Adele; Luber, George

2016-10-01

We created a measure to help comprehend population vulnerability to potential flooding and excessive heat events using health, built environment and social factors. Through principal component analysis (PCA), we created non-weighted sum index scores of literature-reviewed social and built environment characteristics. We created baseline poor health measures using 1999-2005 age-adjusted cardiovascular and combined diabetes and hypertension mortality rates to correspond with social-built environment indices. We mapped US Census block groups by linked age-adjusted mortality and a PCA-created social-built environment index. The goal was to measure flooding and excessive heat event vulnerability as proxies for population vulnerability to climate change for Travis County, Texas. This assessment identified communities where baseline poor health, social marginalisation and built environmental impediments intersected. Such assessments may assist targeted interventions and improve emergency preparedness in identified vulnerable communities, while fostering resilience through the focus of climate change adaptation policies at the local level. No claim to original US government works. Journal compilation © 2016 Overseas Development Institute.

Climate Variability and Change in the Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, Piero; Özsoy, Emin; Planton, Serge; Zanchetta, Giovanni

2017-04-01

This special issue collects new research results on the climate of the Mediterranean region. It covers traditional topics of the MedCLIVAR programme (www.medclivar.eu, Lionello et al. 2006, Lionello et al. 2012b) being devoted to papers addressing on-going and future climate changes in the Mediterranean region and their impacts on its environment.

Report from the International Permafrost Association: state of permafrost in the first decade of the 21st century

Treesearch

J. Brown; V.E. Romanovsky

2008-01-01

Recent assessments have considered present-day and future responses of permafrost terrain to climate change; included are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and United Nations Environment Programme assessments (Romanovsky et al., 2007), the on-going National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) annual...

Population connectivity and genetic diversity of American marten (Martes americana) in the United States northern Rocky Mountains in a climate change context

Treesearch

Tzeidle N. Wasserman; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy S. Littell; Andrew J. Shirk; Erin L. Landguth

2013-01-01

Climate change is likely to alter population connectivity, particularly for species associated with higher elevation environments. The goal of this study is to predict the potential effects of future climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of American marten populations across a 30.2 million hectare region of the in the US northern Rocky...

Changing currents: a strategy for understanding and predicting the changing ocean circulation.

PubMed

Bryden, Harry L; Robinson, Carol; Griffiths, Gwyn

2012-12-13

Within the context of UK marine science, we project a strategy for ocean circulation research over the next 20 years. We recommend a focus on three types of research: (i) sustained observations of the varying and evolving ocean circulation, (ii) careful analysis and interpretation of the observed climate changes for comparison with climate model projections, and (iii) the design and execution of focused field experiments to understand ocean processes that are not resolved in coupled climate models so as to be able to embed these processes realistically in the models. Within UK-sustained observations, we emphasize smart, cost-effective design of the observational network to extract maximum information from limited field resources. We encourage the incorporation of new sensors and new energy sources within the operational environment of UK-sustained observational programmes to bridge the gap that normally separates laboratory prototype from operational instrument. For interpreting the climate-change records obtained through a variety of national and international sustained observational programmes, creative and dedicated UK scientists should lead efforts to extract the meaningful signals and patterns of climate change and to interpret them so as to project future changes. For the process studies, individual scientists will need to work together in team environments to combine observational and process modelling results into effective improvements in the coupled climate models that will lead to more accurate climate predictions.

Dengue Vectors and their Spatial Distribution

PubMed Central

Higa, Yukiko

2011-01-01

The distribution of dengue vectors, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, is affected by climatic factors. In addition, since their life cycles are well adapted to the human environment, environmental changes resulting from human activity such as urbanization exert a great impact on vector distribution. The different responses of Ae. aegypti and Ae albopictus to various environments result in a difference in spatial distribution along north-south and urban-rural gradients, and between the indoors and outdoors. In the north-south gradient, climate associated with survival is an important factor in spatial distribution. In the urban-rural gradient, different distribution reflects a difference in adult niches and is modified by geographic and human factors. The direct response of the two species to the environment around houses is related to different spatial distribution indoors and outdoors. Dengue viruses circulate mainly between human and vector mosquitoes, and the vector presence is a limiting factor of transmission. Therefore, spatial distribution of dengue vectors is a significant concern in the epidemiology of the disease. Current technologies such as GIS, satellite imagery and statistical models allow researchers to predict the spatial distribution of vectors in the changing environment. Although it is difficult to confirm the actual effect of environmental and climate changes on vector abundance and vector-borne diseases, environmental changes caused by humans and human behavioral changes due to climate change can be expected to exert an impact on dengue vectors. Longitudinal monitoring of dengue vectors and viruses is therefore necessary. PMID:22500133

Climate change influences on environment as a determinant of Indigenous health: Relationships to place, sea ice, and health in an Inuit community.

PubMed

Durkalec, Agata; Furgal, Chris; Skinner, Mark W; Sheldon, Tom

2015-07-01

This paper contributes to the literature on Indigenous health, human dimensions of climate change, and place-based dimensions of health by examining the role of environment for Inuit health in the context of a changing climate. We investigated the relationship between one key element of the environment - sea ice - and diverse aspects of health in an Inuit community in northern Canada, drawing on population health and health geography approaches. We used a case study design and participatory and collaborative approach with the community of Nain in northern Labrador, Canada. Focus groups (n = 2), interviews (n = 22), and participant observation were conducted in 2010-11. We found that an appreciation of place was critical for understanding the full range of health influences of sea ice use for Inuit. Negative physical health impacts were reported on less frequently than positive health benefits of sea ice use, which were predominantly related to mental/emotional, spiritual, social, and cultural health. We found that sea ice means freedom for sea ice users, which we suggest influences individual and collective health through relationships between sea ice use, culture, knowledge, and autonomy. While sea ice users reported increases in negative physical health impacts such as injuries and stress related to changing environmental conditions, we suggest that less tangible climate change impacts related to losses of health benefits and disruptions to place meanings and place attachment may be even more significant. Our findings indicate that climate change is resulting in and compounding existing environmental dispossession for Inuit. They also demonstrate the necessity of considering place meanings, culture, and socio-historical context to assess the complexity of climate change impacts on Indigenous environmental health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

East Africa's pastoralist emergency: is climate change the straw that breaks the camel's back?

PubMed

Blackwell, P J

2010-01-01

The global warming trend of climate change is having severe adverse effects on the livelihoods of the Turkana pastoralists of northwestern Kenya. Care has to be taken in making assertions about the impact of climate change. The biggest effects may come not from lower average rainfall but from a widening of the standard deviation as weather extremes become more frequent. In a region already prone to drought, disease and conflict, climate change, access to modern weapons and new viral livestock diseases are now overwhelming pastoralists' coping capacity and deepening the region's roughly 30-year dependency on famine relief. This article examines the livelihood strategies of the Turkana and several poverty reduction programmes currently established, while addressing the reality that traditional pastoralism may no longer be a viable livelihood option, given the effects of climate change, disease and the ensuing conflict over diminishing resources. The findings conclude that the future for traditional Turkana pastoralists is dismal because they continue to depend on an environment that may no longer support them. Humanitarians are recommended to shift their focus to advocate and invest in alternative livelihood strategies that generate economic independence and help the Turkana adapt to their changing environment.

Climate change, air pollution, and allergic respiratory diseases: an update.

PubMed

D'Amato, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; D'Amato, Maria

2016-10-01

The rising trend in prevalence of allergic respiratory disease and bronchial asthma, observed over the last decades, can be explained by changes occurring in the environment, with increasing presence of biologic, such as allergens, and chemical atmospheric trigger factors able to stimulate the sensitization and symptoms of these diseases. Many studies have shown changes in production, dispersion, and allergen content of pollen and spores because of climate change with an increasing effect of aeroallergens on allergic patients. Over the last 50 years, global earth's temperature has markedly risen likely because of growing emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by human activity, have a major impact on the biosphere and human environment.Urbanization and high levels of vehicle emissions are correlated to an increase in the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy prevalent in people who live in urban areas compared with those who live in rural areas. Measures of mitigation need to be applied for reducing future impacts of climate change on our planet, but until global emissions continue to rise, adaptation to the impacts of future climate variability will also be required.

On their best behavior: how animal behavior can help determine the combined effects of species interactions and climate change.

PubMed

Harmon, Jason P; Barton, Brandon T

2013-09-01

The increasingly appreciated link between climate change and species interactions has the potential to help us understand and predict how organisms respond to a changing environment. As this connection grows, it becomes even more important to appreciate the mechanisms that create and control the combined effect of these factors. However, we believe one such important set of mechanisms comes from species' behavior and the subsequent trait-mediated interactions, as opposed to the more often studied density-mediated effects. Behavioral mechanisms are already well appreciated for mitigating the separate effects of the environment and species interactions. Thus, they could be at the forefront for understanding the combined effects. In this review, we (1) show some of the known behaviors that influence the individual and combined effects of climate change and species interactions; (2) conceptualize general ways behavior may mediate these combined effects; and (3) illustrate the potential importance of including behavior in our current tools for predicting climate change effects. In doing so, we hope to promote more research on behavior and other mechanistic factors that may increase our ability to accurately predict climate change effects. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Unified Synthesis Product (USP) Recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, T. C.

2009-05-01

The USP identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. For example, our knowledge of changes in tornadoes, hail, and ice storms is quite limited, making it difficult to know if and how such events have changed as climate has warmed, and how they might change in the future. Research on ecological responses to climate change also is limited, as is our understanding of social responses. The Report identifies the five most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. This includes ecosystems as well as economic systems, human health, and the built environment. 2. Refine ability to project climate change at local scales. One of the main messages to emerge from the past decade of synthesis and assessments is that while climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. The United States has tremendous potential to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society. 4. Improve understanding of and ability to identify thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in the climate system. Paleoclimatic data shows that climate can and has changed quite abruptly when certain thresholds are crossed. Similarly, there is evidence that ecological and human systems can undergo abrupt change when tipping points are reached. 5. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change in the context of multiple stresses. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is essential to improve understanding of how the capacity to adapt to a changing climate might be exercised, and the vulnerabilities to climate change and other environmental stresses that might remain. Results from these efforts would inform future assessments that continue building our understanding of humanity's impacts on climate, and climate's impacts on us. Such assessments will continue to play a role in helping the U.S. respond to changing conditions. A vision for future climate change assessments includes both sustained extensive practitioner and stakeholder involvement, and periodic, targeted, scientifically rigorous reports similar to the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.

Breeding implications of drought stress under future climate for upland rice in Brazil.

PubMed

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Heinemann, Alexandre B; Pereira de Castro, Adriano; Breseghello, Flávio; Navarro-Racines, Carlos; Li, Tao; Rebolledo, Maria C; Challinor, Andrew J

2018-05-01

Rice is the most important food crop in the developing world. For rice production systems to address the challenges of increasing demand and climate change, potential and on-farm yield increases must be increased. Breeding is one of the main strategies toward such aim. Here, we hypothesize that climatic and atmospheric changes for the upland rice growing period in central Brazil are likely to alter environment groupings and drought stress patterns by 2050, leading to changing breeding targets during the 21st century. As a result of changes in drought stress frequency and intensity, we found reductions in productivity in the range of 200-600 kg/ha (up to 20%) and reductions in yield stability throughout virtually the entire upland rice growing area (except for the southeast). In the face of these changes, our crop simulation analysis suggests that the current strategy of the breeding program, which aims at achieving wide adaptation, should be adjusted. Based on the results for current and future climates, a weighted selection strategy for the three environmental groups that characterize the region is suggested. For the highly favorable environment (HFE, 36%-41% growing area, depending on RCP), selection should be done under both stress-free and terminal stress conditions; for the favorable environment (FE, 27%-40%), selection should aim at testing under reproductive and terminal stress, and for the least favorable environment (LFE, 23%-27%), selection should be conducted for response to reproductive stress only and for the joint occurrence of reproductive and terminal stress. Even though there are differences in timing, it is noteworthy that stress levels are similar across environments, with 40%-60% of crop water demand unsatisfied. Efficient crop improvement targeted toward adaptive traits for drought tolerance will enhance upland rice crop system resilience under climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world.

PubMed

Tabachnick, W J

2010-03-15

Vector-borne pathogens cause enormous suffering to humans and animals. Many are expanding their range into new areas. Dengue, West Nile and Chikungunya have recently caused substantial human epidemics. Arthropod-borne animal diseases like Bluetongue, Rift Valley fever and African horse sickness pose substantial threats to livestock economies around the world. Climate change can impact the vector-borne disease epidemiology. Changes in climate will influence arthropod vectors, their life cycles and life histories, resulting in changes in both vector and pathogen distribution and changes in the ability of arthropods to transmit pathogens. Climate can affect the way pathogens interact with both the arthropod vector and the human or animal host. Predicting and mitigating the effects of future changes in the environment like climate change on the complex arthropod-pathogen-host epidemiological cycle requires understanding of a variety of complex mechanisms from the molecular to the population level. Although there has been substantial progress on many fronts the challenges to effectively understand and mitigate the impact of potential changes in the environment on vector-borne pathogens are formidable and at an early stage of development. The challenges will be explored using several arthropod-borne pathogen systems as illustration, and potential avenues to meet the challenges will be presented.

Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Sanganyado, Edmond; Teta, Charles; Masiri, Busani

2018-03-01

Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

The water supply-water environment nexus in salt Intrusion area under the climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D.

2017-12-01

Water resources are critical problems in in salt Intrusion area for the increasing water supply and water quality deterioration. And the climate change exacerbates these problems. In order to balance the relationship between water supply and water environment requirements, the water supply-water environment nexus should be understood well. Based on the de Saint-Venant system of equations and the convection diffusion equation, which can be used to reflect the laws of water quality, the water supply- water environment nexus equation has be determined. And the nexus is dynamic with the climate change factors. The methods of determined the nexus have then been applied to a case study of the water supply-water environment nexus for the Pearl River Delta in China. The results indicate that the water supply-water environment nexus is trade off each other and are mainly affected by the fresh water flow from the upstream, salt water intrusion will reduce the resilience of the water supply system in this area. Our methods provides a useful framework to quantify the nexus according to the mechanisms of the water quantity and water quality, which will useful freshwater allocation and management in this saltwater intrusion area.

NCSE's 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change, Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Ellen

The National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) held its 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change, on January 27-29, 2015, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Crystal City, VA. The National Conference: Energy and Climate Change developed and advanced partnerships that focused on transitioning the world to a new “low carbon” and “climate resilient” energy system. It emphasized advancing research and technology, putting ideas into action, and moving forward on policy and practice. More than 900 participants from the scientific research, policy and governance, business and civil society, and educationmore » communities attended. The Conference was organized around four themes: (1) a new energy system (including energy infrastructure, technologies and efficiencies, changes in distribution of energy sources, and low carbon transportation); (2) energy, climate and sustainable development; (3) financing and markets; and (4) achieving progress (including ideas for the 21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). The program featured six keynote presentations, six plenary sessions, 41 symposia and 20 workshops. Conference participants were involved in the 20 workshops, each on a specific energy and climate-related issue. The workshops were designed as interactive sessions, with each workshop generating 10-12 recommendations on the topic. The recommendations were prepared in the final conference report, were disseminated nationally, and continue to be available for public use. The conference also featured an exhibition and poster sessions. The National Conference on Energy and Climate Change addressed a wide range of issues specific to the U.S. Department of Energy’s programs; involved DOE’s scientists and program managers in sessions and workshops; and reached out to a broad array of DOE stakeholders.« less

Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

2017-12-01

Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to global warming, and feedbacks between vegetation and climate, are too strong in the models.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change.

PubMed

Baron, Jill S; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nate

2009-12-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D.; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A.; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2009-01-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Preface. Forest ecohydrological processes in a changing environment.

Treesearch

Xiaohua Wei; Ge Sun; James Vose; Kyoichi Otsuki; Zhiqiang Zhang; Keith Smetterm

2011-01-01

The papers in this issue are a selection of the presentations made at the second International Conference on Forests and Water in a Changing Environment. This special issue ‘Forest Ecohydrological Processes in a Changing Environment’ covers the topics regarding the effects of forest, land use and climate changes on ecohydrological processes across forest stand,...

[Perceptions and adaptation strategies of herders in desert steppe of Inner Mongolia to climate change].

PubMed

Han, Ying; Hou, Xiang-yang

2011-04-01

Desert steppe is very vulnerable to climate change. The herders caring for their livestock in such a natural environment have to face the challenges of rapid climate change. In this paper, a household-level questionnaire was conducted in the Suniteyou District of Inner Mongolia, China, aimed to analyze the herders' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change, extreme climate events in particular. In this Steppe where precipitation is rare and meteorological disasters are frequent, drought is the main extreme climate event with the broadest affecting area, the highest affecting degree, and the greatest frequency. The sensitivity of the herders to drought is far higher than that to other extreme climate events, and also, the perceptions to drought induce the herders having deep perceptions to the extreme climate events such as strong wing, dust storm, and heavy snow. Relative to the perceptions to long-term climate change, the perceptions to short-term climate change are more deep and precise. The herders can estimate the long-term climate change trend according to their perceptions to the latest 10 years climate change. They attribute the poor livestock health and the reduced forage yield greatly to climate change. Yet, the herders are inexperienced in implementing efficient adaptation strategies. Generally, their adaptation measures are quite simplex and rather passive.

African N Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekunda, M.; Galford, G. L.; Hickman, J. E.; Palm, C.

2011-12-01

Africa's smallholder agricultural systems face unique challenges in planning for reducing poverty, concurrent with adaptation and mitigation to climate change. At continental level, policy seeks to promote a uniquely African Green Revolution to increase crop yields and food production, and improve local livelihoods. However, the consequences on the environment and climate are not clear; these pro-economic development measures should be linked to climate change adaptation and mitigation measures, and research is required to help achieve these policy proposals by identifying options, and testing impacts. In particular, increased nitrogen (N) inputs are essential for increasing food production in Africa, but are accompanied by inevitable increases in losses to the environment. These losses appear to be low at input levels promoted in agricultural development programs, while the increased N inputs both increase current food production and appear to reduce the vulnerability of food production to changes in climate. We present field and remote sensing evidence from Malawi that subsidizing improved seed and fertilizers increases resilience to drought without adding excess N to the environment. In Kenya, field research identified thresholds in N2O losses, where emissions are very low at fertilization rates of less than 200 kg ha-1. Village-scale models have identified potential inefficiencies in the food production process where the largest losses of reactive N occur, and which could be targeted to reduce the amount of N released to the environment. We further review some on-going research activities and progress in Africa that compare different methods of managing resources that target resilience in food production and adaptation to climate change, using nutrient N as an indicator, while evaluating the effects of these resource management practices on ecosystems and the environment.

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed Central

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-01-01

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change. PMID:14561301

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) in the IPY 2007-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennicutt, M. C.; Wilson, T. J.; Summerhayes, C.

2005-05-01

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) initiates, develops, and coordinates international scientific research in the Antarctic region. SCAR is assuming a leadership position in the IPY primarily through its five major Scientific Research Programs; ACE, SALE, EBA, AGCS, and ICESTAR; which will be briefly described.Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE) promotes the exchange of data and ideas between research groups focusing on the evolution of Antarctica's climate system and ice sheet. The program will: (1) quantitatively assess the climate and glacial history of Antarctica; (2) identify the processes which govern Antarctic change and feed back around the globe; (3) improve our ability to model past changes in Antarctica; and (4)document past change to predict future change in Antarctica. Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) promotes, facilitates, and champions cooperation and collaboration in the exploration and study of subglacial environments in Antarctica. SALE intends to understand the complex interplay of biological, geological, chemical, glaciological, and physical processes within subglacial lake environments through coordinated international research teams. Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic (EBA) will use a suite of modern techniques and interdisciplinary approaches, to explore the evolutionary history of selected modern Antarctic biota, examine how modern biological diversity in the Antarctic influences the way present-day ecosystems function, and thereby predict how the biota may respond to future environmental change. Antarctica and the Global Climate System (AGCS) will investigate the nature of the atmospheric and oceanic linkages between the climate of the Antarctic and the rest of the Earth system, and the mechanisms involved therein. A combination of modern instrumented records of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and the climate signals held within ice cores will be used to understand past and future climate variability and change in the Antarctic as a result of natural and anthropogenic forcings over the last 100,000 years. Interhemispheric Conjugacy Effects in Solar-Terrestrial and Aeronomy Research (ICESTAR) will study the interactions between and collective behavior of the many component parts of the Earth system, including the interaction between the natural environment and human society. Objectives include specification and prediction of the state of the system and assimilation and integration of data from disparate sources to understand the complex geospace environment.

Implementing climate change mitigation in health services: the importance of context.

PubMed

Desmond, Sharon

2016-10-01

Academic interest in strategies to reduce the impact of health services on climate change is quickening. Research has largely focused on local innovations with little consideration of the contextual and systemic elements that influence sustainable development across health systems. A realistic framework specifically to guide decision-making by health care providers is still needed. To address this deficit, the literature is explored in relation to health services and climate change mitigation strategies, and the contextual factors that influence efforts to mitigate climate effects in health service delivery environments are highlighted. A conceptual framework is proposed that offers a model for the pursuit of sustainable development practice in health services. A set of propositions is advanced to provide a systems approach to assist decision-making by decoding the challenges faced in implementing sustainable health services. This has important implications for health care providers, funders and legislators since the financial, policy and regulatory environment of health care, along with its leadership and models of care generally conflict with carbon literacy and climate change mitigation strategies. © The Author(s) 2016.

Building partnerships to produce actionable science to support climate-informed management decisions: North Central Climate Science Center example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackett, J.; Ojima, D. S.; McNeeley, S.

2017-12-01

As climate change impacts become more apparent in our environment, action is needed to enhance the social-ecological system resilience. Incorporating principles which lead to actionable research and project co-development, when appropriate, will facilitate building linkages between the research and the natural resource management communities. In order to develop strategies to manage for climatic and ecosystem changes, collaborative actions are needed between researchers and resource managers to apply appropriate knowledge of the ecosystem and management environments to enable feasible solutions and management actions to respond to climate change. Our team has been involved in developing and establishing a research and engagement center, the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), for the US Department of Interior, to support the development and translation of pertinent climate science information to natural resource managers in the north central portion of the United States. The NC CSC has implemented a platform to support the Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation, and Mitigation Projects (ReVAMP) with research, engagement, and training activities to support resource managers and researchers. These activities are aimed at the co-production of appropriate response strategies to climate change in the region, in particular to drought-related responses. Through this platform we, with other partners in the region, including the Department of Interior and the Department of Agriculture, are bringing various training tools, climate information, and management planning tools to resource managers. The implementation of ReVAMP has led to development of planning efforts which include a more explicit representation of climate change as a driver of drought events in our region. Scenario planning provides a process which integrates management goals with possible outcomes derived from observations and simulations of ecological impacts of climate change. Co-development of management options under these various scenarios have allowed for guidance about further research needed, observations needed to better monitor ecological conditions under climate changes, and adaptive management practices to increase resilience.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

PubMed

Moss, Richard H; Edmonds, Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy A; Manning, Martin R; Rose, Steven K; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Carter, Timothy R; Emori, Seita; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kram, Tom; Meehl, Gerald A; Mitchell, John F B; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J; Stouffer, Ronald J; Thomson, Allison M; Weyant, John P; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2010-02-11

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Forecasting Climate-Induced Ecosystem Changes on Military Installations

Treesearch

James D. Westervelt; William W. Hargrove

2011-01-01

Military installation training lands must be managed to support species at risk as well as to be effective training environments for soldiers. Forecasts from various global climate change models suggest that the habitats associated with some military training installations will face pressures that induce biome-shifts, invasive species, loss of habitat, and changes in...

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Mandate for the Nursing Profession to Address Climate Change Through Nursing Education.

PubMed

Leffers, Jeanne; Levy, Ruth McDermott; Nicholas, Patrice K; Sweeney, Casey F

2017-11-01

The adverse health effects from climate change demand action from the nursing profession. This article examines the calls to action, the status of climate change in nursing education, and challenges and recommendations for nursing education related to climate change and human health. Discussion paper. The integration of climate change into nursing education is essential so that knowledge, skills, and insights critical for clinical practice in our climate-changing world are incorporated in curricula, practice, research, and policy. Our Ecological Planetary Health Model offers a framework for nursing to integrate relevant climate change education into nursing curricula and professional nursing education. Nursing education can offer a leadership role to address the mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies for climate change. An ecological framework is valuable for nursing education regarding climate change through its consideration of political, cultural, economic, and environmental interrelationships on human health and the health of the planet. Knowledge of climate change is important for integration into basic and advanced nursing education, as well as professional education for nurses to address adverse health impacts, climate change responses policy, and advocacy roles. For current and future nurses to provide care within a climate-changing environment, nursing education has a mandate to integrate knowledge about climate change issues across all levels of nursing education. Competence in nursing practice follows from knowledge and skill acquisition gained from integration of climate change content into nursing education. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998-): a climate change-related public health narrative.

PubMed

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Lapaige, Véronique; Labbé, Yolaine

2011-01-01

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec's new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human-environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a "public health narrative" presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998-2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002-2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006-2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and "transfrontier knowledge-to-action" for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998–): a climate change-related public health narrative

PubMed Central

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Lapaige, Véronique; Labbé, Yolaine

2011-01-01

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec’s new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human–environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a “public health narrative” presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998–2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002–2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006–2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and “transfrontier knowledge-to-action” for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures. PMID:21966228

School Climate Assessment Programs. Technical Assistance Bulletin 38.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National School Resource Network, Washington, DC.

Numerous studies indicate that climate, the prevailing "feeling" of the environment, not only contributes to behavioral and situational outcomes, but that climate can be changed to help bring about the behaviors and outcomes desired. Researchers have identified characteristics of positive school climates and ways of determining the presence or…

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index

EPA Science Inventory

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and g...

Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

PubMed

Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

2012-02-01

The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

Evaluation of simulated corn yields and associated uncertainty in different climate zones of China using Daycent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, A.; Xue, Y.

2017-12-01

Corn is one of most important agricultural production in China. Research on the simulation of corn yields and the impacts of climate change and agricultural management practices on corn yields is important in maintaining the stable corn production. After climatic data including daily temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed from 1948 to 2010, soil properties, observed corn yields, and farmland management information were collected, corn yields grown in humidity and hot environment (Sichuang province) and cold and dry environment (Hebei province) in China in the past 63 years were simulated by Daycent, and the results was evaluated based on published yield record. The relationship between regional climate change, global warming and corn yield were analyzed, the uncertainties of simulation derived from agricultural management practices by changing fertilization levels, land fertilizer maintenance and tillage methods were reported. The results showed that: (1) Daycent model is capable to simulate corn yields under the different climatic background in China. (2) When studying the relationship between regional climate change and corn yields, it has been found that observed and simulated corn yields increased along with total regional climate change. (3) When studying the relationship between the global warming and corn yields, It was discovered that newly-simulated corn yields after removing the global warming trend of original temperature data were lower than before.

Interactions of Changing Solar Ultraviolet Radiation and Climate with Light Induced Chemical Reactions in Aquatic Environments

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in the ozone layer over the past two decades have resulted in increases in solar ultraviolet radiation that reach the surface of North American aquatic environments. Concurrent changes in atmospheric CO2 are resulting in changes in stratification and precipitation that ar...

A climate-compatible approach to development practice by international humanitarian NGOs.

PubMed

Clarke, Matthew; de Cruz, Ian

2015-01-01

If current climate-change predictions prove accurate, non-linear change, including potentially catastrophic change, is possible and the environments in which international humanitarian NGOs operate will change figuratively and literally. This paper proposes that a new approach to development is required that takes changing climate into account. This 'climate-compatible approach' to development is a bleak shift from some of the current orthodox positions and will be a major challenge to international humanitarian NGOs working with the most vulnerable. However, it is necessary to address the challenges and context such NGOs face, and the need to be resilient and adaptive to these changes. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Brander, Keith M; Brown, Chris; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin B; Sydeman, William J; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-11-04

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Climate change helplessness and the (de)moralization of individual energy behavior.

PubMed

Salomon, Erika; Preston, Jesse L; Tannenbaum, Melanie B

2017-03-01

Although most people understand the threat of climate change, they do little to modify their own energy conservation behavior. One reason for this gap between belief and behavior may be that individual actions seem unimpactful and therefore are not morally relevant. This research investigates how climate change helplessness-belief that one's actions cannot affect climate change-can undermine the moralization of climate change and personal energy conservation. In Study 1, climate change efficacy predicted both moralization of energy use and energy conservation intentions beyond individual belief in climate change. In Studies 2 and 3, participants read information about climate change that varied in efficacy message, that is, whether individual actions (e.g., using less water, turning down heat) make a difference in the environment. Participants who read that their behavior made no meaningful impact reported weaker moralization and intentions (Study 2), and reported more energy consumption 1 week later (Study 3). Moreover, effects on intentions and actions were mediated by changes in moralization. We discuss ways to improve climate change messages to foster environmental efficacy and moralization of personal energy use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

GIS and crop simulation modelling applications in climate change research

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The challenges that climate change presents humanity require an unprecedented ability to predict the responses of crops to environment and management. Geographic information systems (GIS) and crop simulation models are two powerful and highly complementary tools that are increasingly used for such p...

Soil transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behaviour.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil transmitted helminthiases (STH) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warmin...

News on Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Allergic Triggers of Asthma.

PubMed

D Amato, M; Cecchi, L; Annesi-Maesano, I; D Amato, G

2018-01-01

The rising frequency of obstructive respiratory diseases during recent years, in particular allergic asthma, can be partially explained by changes in the environment, with the increasing presence in the atmosphere of chemical triggers (particulate matter and gaseous components such as nitrogen dioxide and ozone) and biologic triggers (aeroallergens). In allergic individuals, aeroallergens stimulate airway sensitization and thus induce symptoms of bronchial asthma. Over the last 50 years, the earth's temperature has risen markedly, likely because of growing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Major atmospheric and climatic changes, including global warming induced by human activity, have a considerable impact on the biosphere and on the human environment. Urbanization and high levels of vehicle emissions induce symptoms of bronchial obstruction (in particular bronchial asthma), more so in people living in urban areas compared than in those who live in rural areas. Measures need to be taken to mitigate the future impact of climate change and global warming. However, while global emissions continue to rise, we must learn to adapt to climate variability.

Climate change and biological invasions: evidence, expectations, and response options.

PubMed

Hulme, Philip E

2017-08-01

A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human-assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost-effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only integrates bioclimatic suitability and population-level demographic rates but also simulation of landscape-level processes (e.g. dispersal, land-use change, host/habitat distribution, non-climatic edaphic constraints). In terms of invasive alien species that have known economic or biodiversity impacts, the taxa that are likely to be the most responsive are plant pathogens and insect pests of agricultural crops. However, the extent to which climate adaptation strategies lead to new crops, altered rotations, and different farming practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) will all shape the potential agricultural impacts of alien species. The greatest uncertainty in the effects of climate change on biological invasions exists with identifying the future character of new species introductions and predicting ecosystem impacts. Two complementary strategies may work under these conditions of high uncertainty: (i) prioritise ecosystems in terms of their perceived vulnerability to climate change and prevent ingress or expansion of alien species therein that may exacerbate problems; (ii) target those ecosystem already threatened by alien species and implement management to prevent the situation deteriorating under climate change. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Growth response of conifers in Adirondack plantations to changing environment: Model approaches based on stem-analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Y.

1993-01-01

Based on model approaches, three conifer species, red pine, Norway spruce and Scots pine grown in plantations at Pack Demonstration Forest, in the southeastern Adirondack mountains of New York, were chosen to study growth response to different environmental changes, including silvicultural treatments and changes in climate and chemical environment. Detailed stem analysis data provided a basis for constructing tree growth models. These models were organized into three groups: morphological, dynamic and predictive. The morphological model was designed to evaluate relationship between tree attributes and interactive influences of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on the annual increments. Three types of morphological patternsmore » have been characterized: space-time patterns of whole-stem rings, intrinsic wood deposition pattern along the tree-stem, and bolewood allocation ratio patterns along the tree-stem. The dynamic model reflects the growth process as a system which responds to extrinsic signal inputs, including fertilization pulses, spacing effects and climatic disturbance, as well as intrinsic feedback. Growth signals indicative of climatic effects were used to construct growth-climate models using both multivariate analysis and Kalman filter methods. The predictive model utilized GCMs and growth-climate relationships to forecast tree growth responses in relation to future scenarios of CO[sub 2]-induced climate change. Prediction results indicate that different conifer species have individualistic growth response to future climatic change and suggest possible changes in future growth and distribution of naturally occurring conifers in this region.« less

Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities

PubMed Central

Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V.; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M.

2017-01-01

Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. PMID:29087943

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the inner city and by 6°C during a period of hot days. The scenarios of future temperature are ongoing and will show how heat stress will change in Brisbane when both urban growth and climate change are considered.

Production, management, and environment symposium: Environmental footprint of livestock production - Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This manuscript is the introduction to the 2015 Production, Management, and Environment symposium titled “Environmental Footprint of Livestock Production – Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change” that was held at the Joint Annual Meeting of the ASAS and ADSA at the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort in...

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change.

PubMed

Ernakovich, Jessica G; Hopping, Kelly A; Berdanier, Aaron B; Simpson, Rodney T; Kachergis, Emily J; Steltzer, Heidi; Wallenstein, Matthew D

2014-10-01

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

PubMed

Brown, Iain

2018-06-13

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Iain

2018-06-01

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Collective violence caused by climate change and how it threatens health and human rights.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W

2014-06-14

The weight of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence. This evidence arises from individual studies over wide ranges of time and geographic location, and from two extensive meta-analyses. Complex pathways that underlie this association are not fully understood; however, increased ambient temperatures and extremes of rainfall, with their resultant adverse impacts on the environment and risk factors for violence, appear to play key roles. Collective violence due to climate change poses serious threats to health and human rights, including by causing morbidity and mortality directly and also indirectly by damage to the health-supporting infrastructure of society, forcing people to migrate from their homes and communities, damaging the environment, and diverting human and financial resources. This paper also briefly addresses issues for future research on the relationship between climate change and collective violence, the prevention of collective violence due to climate change, and States' obligations to protect human rights, to prevent collective violence, and to promote and support measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Copyright © 2014 Levy and Sidel. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Climate change and One Health.

PubMed

Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-06-01

The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

Climate change and One Health

PubMed Central

Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-01-01

Abstract The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change. PMID:29790983

Antarctic climate change and the environment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

This volume provides a comprehensive, up-to-date account of how the physical and biological : environment of the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean has changed from Deep Time until : the present day. It also considers how the Antarctic environmen...

An assessment of yield gains under climate change due to genetic modification of pearl millet.

PubMed

Singh, Piara; Boote, K J; Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Gupta, S K; Srinivas, K; Bantilan, M C S

2017-12-01

Developing cultivars with traits that can enhance and sustain productivity under climate change will be an important climate smart adaptation option. The modified CSM-CERES-Pearl millet model was used to assess yield gains by modifying plant traits determining crop maturity duration, potential yield and tolerance to drought and heat in pearl millet cultivars grown at six locations in arid (Hisar, Jodhpur, Bikaner) and semi-arid (Jaipur, Aurangabad and Bijapur) tropical India and two locations in semi-arid tropical West Africa (Sadore in Niamey and Cinzana in Mali). In all the study locations the yields decreased when crop maturity duration was decreased by 10% both in current and future climate conditions; however, 10% increase in crop maturity significantly (p<0.05) increased yields at Aurangabad and Bijapur, but not at other locations. Increasing yield potential traits by 10% increased yields under both the climate situations in India and West Africa. Drought tolerance imparted the lowest yield gain at Aurangabad (6%), the highest at Sadore (30%) and intermediate at the other locations under current climate. Under climate change the contribution of drought tolerance to the yield of cultivars either increased or decreased depending upon changes in rainfall of the locations. Yield benefits of heat tolerance substantially increased under climate change at most locations, having the greatest effects at Bikaner (17%) in India and Sadore (13%) in West Africa. Aurangabad and Bijapur locations had no yield advantage from heat tolerance due to their low temperature regimes. Thus drought and heat tolerance in pearl millet increased yields under climate change in both the arid and semi-arid tropical climates with greater benefit in relatively hotter environments. This study will assists the plant breeders in evaluating new promising plant traits of pearl millet for adapting to climate change at the selected locations and other similar environments. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

2014-05-01

As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

A review of the consequences of global climate change on human health.

PubMed

Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kabir, Ehsanul; Ara Jahan, Shamin

2014-01-01

The impact of climate change has been significant enough to endanger human health both directly and indirectly via heat stress, degraded air quality, rising sea levels, food and water security, extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc.), vulnerable shelter, and population migration. The deterioration of environmental conditions may facilitate the transmission of diarrhea, vector-borne and infectious diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, malnutrition, etc. Indirect effects of climate change such as mental health problems due to stress, loss of homes, economic instability, and forced migration are also unignorably important. Children, the elderly, and communities living in poverty are among the most vulnerable of the harmful effects due to climate change. In this article, we have reviewed the scientific evidence for the human health impact of climate change and analyzed the various diseases in association with changes in the atmospheric environment and climate conditions.

Catastrophic fat tails and non-smooth damage functions-fire economics and climate change adaptation for public policy

Treesearch

Adriana Keeting; John Handmer

2013-01-01

South-eastern Australia is one of the most fire prone environments on earth. Devastating fires in February 2009 appear to have been off the charts climatically and economically, they led to a new category of fire danger aptly called 'catastrophic'. Almost all wildfire losses have been associated with these extreme conditions and climate change will see an...

Climate change in wildland management: taking the long view

Treesearch

Scott Stine

2004-01-01

Climate constitutes one of the great determinants of all natural environments. As such, it goes a long way in accounting for the distributions of the plant and animal species that inhabit the Sierra Nevada today. Most land managers are well aware that climate has changed over geologic time—indeed, one needs to look no farther than the polished rock of high Sierra...

Leaf-trait plasticity and species vulnerability to climate change in a Mongolian steppe.

PubMed

Liancourt, Pierre; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Song, Daniel S; Spence, Laura A; Helliker, Brent R; Petraitis, Peter S; Casper, Brenda B

2015-09-01

Climate change is expected to modify plant assemblages in ways that will have major consequences for ecosystem functions. How climate change will affect community composition will depend on how individual species respond, which is likely related to interspecific differences in functional traits. The extraordinary plasticity of some plant traits is typically neglected in assessing how climate change will affect different species. In the Mongolian steppe, we examined whether leaf functional traits under ambient conditions and whether plasticity in these traits under altered climate could explain climate-induced biomass responses in 12 co-occurring plant species. We experimentally created three probable climate change scenarios and used a model selection procedure to determine the set of baseline traits or plasticity values that best explained biomass response. Under all climate change scenarios, plasticity for at least one leaf trait correlated with change in species performance, while functional leaf-trait values in ambient conditions did not. We demonstrate that trait plasticity could play a critical role in vulnerability of species to a rapidly changing environment. Plasticity should be considered when examining how climate change will affect plant performance, species' niche spaces, and ecological processes that depend on plant community composition. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

PubMed Central

Hof, Anouschka R.; Jansson, Roland; Nilsson, Christer

2012-01-01

Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. PMID:23285098

Research on plant utilization and adaptation to environment of human in Guangxi of Southern China during the latest 30000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Xie, G.

2017-12-01

It is an important scientific problem in the study of the relationship between man and land to select the key areas and important periods of human evolution. In the latest 30 thousand years, it is an important period for late Pleistocene climate change, which has a profound impact on human evolution. Southern China including Guangxi has a unique geographical landscape pattern and unique vegetation and climate background, which is not only an important channel for the diffusion and migration of ancient humans but also an ideal refuge to avoid climate changes. It preserved the rich archaeological remains of the evolution and development of human beings, and provided a rare place for the adaptive strategies of human survival and early the environment. In this paper, Yahuai cave site in Guangxi will be selected for investigation. We will analyze the continuous accumulation of ancient human remains, and utilized AMS14C to reconstruct the dating framework. We will also extract the plant information and environment of the site through pollen, phytolith, grain and starch grains. We will further explore the succession mode of utilization of plant resources and its relationship with climate change and reveal the adaptability to the environment and strategy.

Healthy people with nature in mind.

PubMed

Annerstedt van den Bosch, Matilda; Depledge, Michael H

2015-12-11

The global disease burden resulting from climate change is likely to be substantial and will put further strain on public health systems that are already struggling to cope with demand. An up- stream solution, that of preventing climate change and associated adverse health effects, is a promising approach, which would create win-win-situations where both the environment and human health benefit. One such solution would be to apply methods of behaviour change to prompt pro-environmentalism, which in turn benefits health and wellbeing. Based on evidence from the behavioural sciences, we suggest that, like many social behaviours, pro- environmental behaviour can be automatically induced by internal or external stimuli. A potential trigger for such automatic pro-environmental behaviour would be natural environments themselves. Previous research has demonstrated that natural environments evoke specific psychological and physiological reactions, as demonstrated by self-reports, epidemiological studies, brain imaging techniques, and various biomarkers. This suggests that exposure to natural environments could have automatic behavioural effects, potentially in a pro-environmental direction, mediated by physiological reactions. Providing access and fostering exposure to natural environments could then serve as a public health tool, together with other measures, by mitigating climate change and achieving sustainable health in sustainable ecosystems. However, before such actions are implemented basic research is required to elucidate the mechanisms involved, and applied investigations are needed to explore real world impacts and effect magnitudes. As environmental research is still not sufficiently integrated within medical or public health studies there is an urgent need to promote interdisciplinary methods and investigations in this critical field. Health risks posed by anthropogenic climate change are large, unevenly distributed, and unpredictable. To ameliorate negative impacts, pro-environmental behaviours should be fostered. Potentially this could be achieved automatically through exposure to favourable natural environments, with an opportunity for cost-efficient nature-based solutions that provide benefits for both the environment and public health.

Untapped genetic variability in Herefords: implications for climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change (CC) has the potential to significantly alter US cattle productivity. As a result, the creation of genetic resources for a specific environment may be necessary, given that genetic-environmental interactions are present and may become more important. Molecular evaluation of a s...

Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Treesearch

Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

75 FR 32728 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List van Rossem's...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-09

... range may be considered significant, and why. (5) The potential effects of climate change on this...). The petitioner also asserts the effects of global climate change, including sea-level rise, shoreline...). Fluctuations in food availability resulting from natural or anthropogenic changes in the environment (CBD 2009...

Comparison of climate space and phylogeny of Marmota (Mammalia: Rodentia) indicates a connection between evolutionary history and climate preference

PubMed Central

Davis, Edward Byrd

2005-01-01

Palaeobiologists have investigated the evolutionary responses of extinct organisms to climate change, and have also used extinct organisms to reconstruct palaeoclimates. There is evidence of a disconnection between climate change and evolution that suggests that organisms may not be accurate palaeoclimate indicators. Here, marmots (Marmota sp.) are used as a case study to examine whether similarity of climate preferences is correlated with evolutionary relatedness of species. This study tests for a relationship between phylogenetic distance and `climate distance' of species within a clade. There should be a significant congruence between maximum likelihood distance and standardized Euclidian distance between climates if daughter species tend to stay in environments similar to parent species. Marmots make a good test case because there are many extant species, their phylogenies are well established and individual survival is linked to climatic factors. A Mantel test indicates a significant correlation between climate and phylogenetic distance matrices, but this relationship explains only a small fraction of the variance (regression R2=0.114). These results suggest that (i) closely related species of marmots tend to stay in similar environments; (ii) marmots may be more susceptible than many mammals to global climate change; and (iii) because of the considerable noise in this system, the correlation cannot be used for detailed palaeoclimate reconstruction. PMID:15799948

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Beyond Knowledge: Service Learning and Local Climate Change Research Engagement Activities that Foster Action and Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gosselin, D. C.; Haney, C.

2013-12-01

Climate change engagement requires individuals to understand an abstract and complex topic and realize the profound implications of climate change for their families and local community. In recent years federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on climate change education to prepare a nation for a warming future. The majority of these education efforts are based on a knowledge deficit model. In this view 'educate' means 'provide information'. However cognitive and behavioral research and current action demonstrate that information alone is not enough; knowledge does not necessarily lead to action. Educators are speaking to deaf ears if we rely on passive and abstract information transfer and neglect more persuasive and affective approaches to communication. When climate change is presented abstractly as something that happens in the future to people, environments, animals somewhere else it is easy to discount. People employ two separate systems for information processing: analytical-rational and intuitive-experiential Authentic local research experiences that engage both analytical and experiential information processing systems not only help individuals understand the abstraction of climate change in a concrete and personally experienced manner, but are more likely to influence behavior. Two on-line, graduate-level courses offered within University of Nebraska's Masters of Applied Science program provide opportunities for participants to engage in authentic inquiry based studies climate change's local impacts, and work with K-12 learners in promoting the scientific awareness and behavioral changes that mitigate against the negative impacts of a changing climate. The courses are specifically designed to improve middle and high school (grades 6-12) teachers' content knowledge of climate processes and climate change science in the context of their own community. Both courses provide data-rich, investigative science experiences in a distributed digital environment and support teachers in the creation of lessons and units that promote both inquiry science and service learning in the community. Course participants connect the dots from their newly acquired theoretical science knowledge to concrete examples of change taking place locally, and see the value of promoting awareness as well as behavioral changes that contribute to adaptation and mitigation of local climate change impacts. We describe the assessments used and the research outcomes associated with NRES 832, Human Dimensions of Climate Change, where participants conduct archival research to create a climate change chronicle for their community, and NRES 830 Climate Research Applications, where teachers lead and evaluate the impacts of student-designed service learning activities as a capstone project for a unit on climate change. We also showcase community-based initiatives resulting from this work that seed the behavioral changes we need to live sustainably in our communities and on our planet.

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change.

PubMed

Tao, Fulu; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Hayashi, Yousay; Lin, Erda

2003-06-01

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

iSeeChange: Crowdsourced Climate Change Reporting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapkin, J. K.

2012-12-01

Directly engaging local communities about their climate change experiences has never been more important. As weather and climate become more unpredictable, these experiences provide a baseline for community decisions, developing adaptation strategies, and planning for the future. Typically, climate change is documented in a top-down fashion: a scientist has a question, makes observations, and publishes a study; in the best case scenario, a journalist reports on the results; if there's time, a local anecdote is sought to put the results in a familiar context. iSeeChange, a public media project funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, reports local environmental change in reverse and turns community questions and conversations with scientists into reported stories that promote opportunities to learn about climate change's affects on the environment and daily life. iSeeChange engages residents of the North Fork Valley region of western Colorado in a multiplatform conversation with scientists about how they perceive their environment is changing through the course of a year - season to season. By bringing together public radio, a mobile reporting and cellular engagement strategy, and a custom crowdsourcing multimedia platform, iSeeChange provides a central access point to collect observations (texts, photographs, voice recordings, and video), organize conversations and interviews with scientists, and report stories online and on air. In this way, iSeeChange is building a dynamic crowdsourced reservoir of information that can increase awareness of environmental problems and potentially disseminate useful information about climate change and successful adaptation strategies. Ultimately, by understanding the community's information needs in a localized question-driven context, the iSeeChange platform presents opportunities for the science community to better understand the value of information and develop better ways to tailor information for communities to use in the future.t;

How Are Changing Solar Ultraviolet Radiation and Climate Affecting Light-induced Chemical Processes in Aquatic Environments?

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in the ozone layer over the past three decades have resulted in increases in solar UV-B radiation (280-315 nm) that reach the surface of aquatic environments. These changes have been accompanied by unprecedented changes in temperature and precipitation patterns around the...

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

2016-10-01

This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012-2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.

Clime: analyzing and producing climate data in GIS environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattaneo, Luigi; Rillo, Valeria; Mercogliano, Paola

2014-05-01

In the last years, Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (ISC) of CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) had several collaboration experiences with impact communities, including IS-ENES (FP7-INF) and SafeLand (FP7-ENV) projects, which involved a study of landslide risk in Europe, and is currently active in GEMINA (FIRB) and ORIENTGATE (SEE Transnational Cooperation Programme) research projects. As a result, it has brought research activities about different impact of climate changes as flood and landslide hazards, based on climate simulation obtained from the high resolution regional climate models COSMO CLM, developed at CMCC as member of the consortium CLM Assembly. ISC-Capua also collaborates with local institutions interested in atmospherical climate change and also of their impacts on the soil, such as river basin authorities in the Campania region, ARPA Emilia Romagna and ARPA Calabria. Impact models (e.g. hydraulic or stability models) are usually developed in a GIS environment, since they need an accurate territory description, so Clime has been designed to bridge the usually existing gap between climate data - both observed and simulated - gathered from different sources, and impact communities. The main goal of Clime, special purpose Geographic Information System (GIS) software integrated in ESRI ArcGIS Desktop 10, is to easily evaluate multiple climate features and study climate changes over specific geographical domains with their related effects on environment, including impacts on soil. Developed as an add-in tool, this software has been conceived for research activities of ISC Division in order to provide a substantial contribution during post-processing and validation phase. Therefore, it is possible to analyze and compare multiple datasets (observations, climate simulations, etc.) through processes involving statistical functions, percentiles, trends test and evaluation of extreme events with a flexible system of temporal and spatial filtering, and to represent results as maps, temporal and statistic plots (time series, seasonal cycles, PDFs, scatter plots, Taylor diagrams) or Excel tables; in addition, it features bias correction techniques for climate model results. Summarizing, Clime is able to provide users a simple and fast way to retrieve analysis over simulated climate data and observations within any geographical site of interest (provinces, regions, countries, etc.).

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual's endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that "localising" climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

A method for screening climate change-sensitive infectious diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin

2015-01-14

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change.

A Method for Screening Climate Change-Sensitive Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin

2015-01-01

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change. PMID:25594780

BEACH GRASS INVASIONS AND COASTAL FLOOD PROTECTION: FORECASTING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL VULNERABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

Our work will yield an increased general understanding of interactions among the alteration of coastal ecosystem, species invasions, climate change, and human risk in coastal environments. In addition, we will conduct a quantitative vulnerability assessment of a specific coast...

A Pathway-based Approach to Predicting Interactions between Chemical and Non-chemical Stressors: Applications to Global Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

A variety of environmental variables influenced by global climate change (GCC) can directly or indirectly affect the health of organisms. These variables may include temperature, salinity, pH, and penetration of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in aquatic environments, and water shor...

Climatic Change and the Future of the Human Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kotlyakov, Vladimir M.

1996-01-01

Evaluates the latest glaciological and oceanological data and demonstrates a strict correlation between global changes of temperature and gas composition of the atmosphere over the last climatic cycle. Concludes that global warming may not create an environmental crisis but will alter drastically the life people lead. (MJP)

Elevated temperature is more effective than elevated [CO2 ] in exposing genotypic variation in Telopea speciosissima growth plasticity: implications for woody plant populations under climate change.

PubMed

Huang, Guomin; Rymer, Paul D; Duan, Honglang; Smith, Renee A; Tissue, David T

2015-10-01

Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] (CE ) and elevated temperature (TE ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima. Both genotypes were positively responsive to CE (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to TE . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to TE (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under CE or TE , and the interactive effects of CE and TE on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, TE was a more effective climate factor than CE in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change.

PubMed

Bellon, Mauricio R; Hodson, David; Hellin, Jon

2011-08-16

Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10-2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world.

Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin, NE-Spain.

PubMed

Kuhn, Nikolaus J; Baumhauer, Roland; Schütt, Brigitta

2011-02-01

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable. In the Gallocanta Basin, climate change and the distinct and continuing land use change since Spain joined the EU in 1986 have created an environment that is in a more or less constant state of transition. This highlights two challenges faced by hydrologists and climatologists involved in developing water management tools for the Gallocanta Basin in particular, but also other areas with sensitive and rapidly changing environments. Hydrologists have to understand the processes and the spatial and temporal patterns of surface-climate interaction in a watershed to assess the impact of climate change on its hydrology. Climatologists, on the other hand, have to develop climate models which provide the appropriate output data, such as reliable information on rainfall characteristics relevant for environmental management. Copyright © 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Climate change and the health of older people in Australia: A scoping review on the role of mobile applications (apps) in ameliorating impact.

PubMed

Black, Deborah A; O'Loughlin, Kate; Wilson, Leigh A

2018-06-01

Due to the impact of climate change, mobile applications (apps) providing information about the external environment have the potential to improve the health of older people. The purpose of this research was to undertake a scoping review of the evidence on the usability, feasibility and effectiveness of mobile apps to encourage access to activities outside the home in older people. A search of databases was undertaken with relevant keywords. Selected manuscripts were judged for relevance to the inclusion criteria and assessed for quality. Very few published studies examined mobile apps specifically designed to prevent, or to treat, chronic disease in ageing populations, and fewer had rigorous designs. No study addressed accessing the external environment in the context of climate change. This study demonstrates that there is a gap in the evidence about the mobile apps designed for healthy ageing and, more specifically, to improve access to the external environment. © 2018 AJA Inc.

The Role of Social Influences on Pro-Environment Behaviors in the San Diego Region.

PubMed

Estrada, Mica; Schultz, P Wesley; Silva-Send, Nilmini; Boudrias, Michel A

2017-04-01

From a social psychological perspective, addressing the threats of climate change involves not only education, which imparts objective facts upon a passive individual, but also a socializing process. The Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) provides a theoretical framework that connects acquiring climate change knowledge with integration into a community, which results in greater engagement in climate friendly behaviors. Survey data were collected from 1000 residents in San Diego County. Measures included (a) knowledge about climate change; (b) self-efficacy, what pro-environmental actions they felt they could do; (c) identity, to what extent they identified as part of a community that is concerned about climate change; (d) values, endorsement of values of the community that is concerned about climate change; and (e) pro-environmental behavior, engagement in conservation behaviors. Results indicated that self-efficacy and values mediated the relationship between knowledge and pro-environmental behavior.

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

PubMed

Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

2016-03-01

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

Effects of climate change on ecological disturbance in the northern Rockies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehman, Rachel A.; Bentz, Barbara J.; DeNitto, Gregg A.; Keane, Robert E.; Manning, Mary E.; Duncan, Jacob P.; Egan, Joel M.; Jackson, Marcus B.; Kegley, Sandra; Lockman, I. Blakey; Pearson, Dean E.; Powell, James A.; Shelly, Steve; Steed, Brytten E.; Zambino, Paul J.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.

2018-01-01

Disturbances alter ecosystem, community, or population structure and change elements of the biological and/or physical environment. Climate changes can alter the timing, magnitude, frequency, and duration of disturbance events, as well as the interactions of disturbances on a landscape, and climate change may already be affecting disturbance events and regimes. Interactions among disturbance regimes, such as the cooccurrence in space and time of bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires, can result in highly visible, rapidly occurring, and persistent changes in landscape composition and structure. Understanding how altered disturbance patterns and multiple disturbance interactions might result in novel and emergent landscape behaviors is critical for addressing climate change impacts and for designing land management strategies that are appropriate for future climates This chapter describes the ecology of important disturbance regimes in the Northern Rockies region, and potential shifts in these regimes as a consequence of observed and projected climate change. We summarize five disturbance types present in the Northern Rockies that are sensitive to a changing climate--wildfires, bark beetles, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), other forest diseases, and nonnative plant invasions—and provide information that can help managers anticipate how, when, where, and why climate changes may alter the characteristics of disturbance regimes.

Ecological response to global climatic change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.; Janelle, Donald G.; Warf, Barney; Hansen, Kathy

2004-01-01

Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

Integrating World Views, Knowledge and Venues in Climate Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Brunacini, J.; Pfirman, S. L.

2015-12-01

The Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Project integrates traditional and western knowledge and observations in climate science to facilitate dialog and learning among Alaska Native adults about climate change and its impacts on the environment and on Alaskan communities. In one of the models we have tested, the informal education took place at a 4-day camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska. Participants included Alaska Native elders, leaders, educators and natural resource managers, community members and university scientists. Results of pre/post camp surveys showed increased awareness of scientific and technical language used in climate science, improved ability to locate resources, tools, and strategies for learning about climate change, enhanced capacity to communicate climate change in a relevant way to their audiences and communities, confirmed the value of elders in helping them understand, respond and adapt to climate change, and that the camp setting facilitated an in-depth discussion and sharing of knowledge. The camp also enhanced the awareness about weather, climate and the environment of the camp facilitators who also noticed a shift in their own thinking and behavior. After the camp one participant who is an educator shared some of the hands-on tools developed by Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership project and used at the camp, with her 6th grade students, with the other teachers in her school and also at a state conference. Another shared what she learned with her family and friends as well as at a conference sponsored by her faith community where she was an invited speaker. Another camp was scheduled for this past summer but was cancelled due to some unforeseen weather/climate related events. A camp is planned for early summer in 2016; however other models of reaching the adult Native populations in a similar culturally responsive manner as the camps will also be explored and tested.

Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change.

PubMed

Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

2007-01-01

Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special mention of the situation of the Mediterranean Sea, where so many species have been introduced recently, and where some have spread in very large quantities. An increasing effort by marine scientists is required, not only to monitor the state of the environment, but also to help predicting future changes and finding ways to mitigate or manage them.

Assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater resources: the case study of Veneto and Friuli plain in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Critto, Andrea; Pasini, Sara; Torresan, Silvia; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Climate change will have different impacts on water resources and water-dependent services worldwide. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. Research is needed to better understand how climate change will impact groundwater resources in specific regions and places and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with the envisaged effects of global climate change and the key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution models simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according with IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur with different extension and magnitude in the case study area. Particularly, qualitative and quantitative impacts on groundwater will occur with more severe consequences in the wettest and in the driest scenario (respectively) and on natural and anthropic systems through the reduction in quality and quantity of water availability for agricultural and other uses (about 80% of agricultural areas and 27% of groundwater bodies at risk). While, such impacts will likely have little direct effects on related ecosystems - croplands, forests and natural environments - lying along the spring area (about 12% of croplands and 2% of natural environments at risk). The major outcomes of the described RRA application are here presented and discussed.

Impact Assessment of Pine Wilt Disease Using the Species Distribution Model and the CLIMEX Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, J. U.; Jung, H.

2016-12-01

The plant disease triangle consists of the host plant, pathogen and environment, but their interaction has not been considered in climate change adaptation policy. Our objectives are to predict the changes of a coniferous forest, pine wood nematodes (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) and pine sawyer beetles (Monochamus spp.), which is a cause of pine wilt disease in the Republic of Korea. We analyzed the impact of pine wilt disease on climate change by using the species distribution model (SDM) and the CLIMEX model. Area of coniferous forest will decline and move to northern and high-altitude area. But pine wood nematodes and pine sawyer beetles are going to spread because they are going to be in a more favorable environment in the future. Coniferous forests are expected to have high vulnerability because of the decrease in area and the increase in the risk of pine wilt disease. Such changes to forest ecosystems will greatly affect climate change in the future. If effective and appropriate prevention and control policies are not implemented, coniferous forests will be severely damaged. An adaptation policy should be created in order to protect coniferous forests from the viewpoint of biodiversity. Thus we need to consider the impact assessment of climate change for establishing an effective adaptation policy. The impact assessment of pine wilt disease using a plant disease triangle drew suitable results to support climate change adaptation policy.

Simulating stand climate, phenology, and photosynthesis of a forest stand with a process-based growth model.

PubMed

Rötzer, Thomas; Leuchner, Michael; Nunn, Angela J

2010-07-01

In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, forest management in Europe is becoming increasingly important. Model simulations can help to understand the reactions and feedbacks of a changing environment on tree growth. In order to simulate forest growth based on future climate change scenarios, we tested the basic processes underlying the growth model BALANCE, simulating stand climate (air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and precipitation), tree phenology, and photosynthesis. A mixed stand of 53- to 60-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Southern Germany was used as a reference. The results show that BALANCE is able to realistically simulate air temperature gradients in a forest stand using air temperature measurements above the canopy and PAR regimes at different heights for single trees inside the canopy. Interception as a central variable for water balance of a forest stand was also estimated. Tree phenology, i.e. bud burst and leaf coloring, could be reproduced convincingly. Simulated photosynthesis rates were in accordance with measured values for beech both in the sun and the shade crown. For spruce, however, some discrepancies in the rates were obvious, probably due to changed environmental conditions after bud break. Overall, BALANCE has shown to respond to scenario simulations of a changing environment (e.g., climate change, change of forest stand structure).

Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

PubMed

Hamilton, Jill A; Miller, Joshua M

2016-02-01

Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species' and populations' ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species' ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced-generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Bivalve aquaculture-environment interactions in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Filgueira, Ramón; Guyondet, Thomas; Comeau, Luc A; Tremblay, Réjean

2016-12-01

Coastal embayments are at risk of impacts by climate change drivers such as ocean warming, sea level rise and alteration in precipitation regimes. The response of the ecosystem to these drivers is highly dependent on their magnitude of change, but also on physical characteristics such as bay morphology and river discharge, which play key roles in water residence time and hence estuarine functioning. These considerations are especially relevant for bivalve aquaculture sites, where the cultured biomass can alter ecosystem dynamics. The combination of climate change, physical and aquaculture drivers can result in synergistic/antagonistic and nonlinear processes. A spatially explicit model was constructed to explore effects of the physical environment (bay geomorphic type, freshwater inputs), climate change drivers (sea level, temperature, precipitation) and aquaculture (bivalve species, stock) on ecosystem functioning. A factorial design led to 336 scenarios (48 hydrodynamic × 7 management). Model outcomes suggest that the physical environment controls estuarine functioning given its influence on primary productivity (bottom-up control dominated by riverine nutrients) and horizontal advection with the open ocean (dominated by bay geomorphic type). The intensity of bivalve aquaculture ultimately determines the bivalve-phytoplankton trophic interaction, which can range from a bottom-up control triggered by ammonia excretion to a top-down control via feeding. Results also suggest that temperature is the strongest climate change driver due to its influence on the metabolism of poikilothermic organisms (e.g. zooplankton and bivalves), which ultimately causes a concomitant increase of top-down pressure on phytoplankton. Given the different thermal tolerance of cultured species, temperature is also critical to sort winners from losers, benefiting Crassostrea virginica over Mytilus edulis under the specific conditions tested in this numerical exercise. In general, it is predicted that bays with large rivers and high exchange with the open ocean will be more resilient under climate change when bivalve aquaculture is present. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plasticity of preferred body temperatures as means of coping with climate change?

PubMed Central

Gvoždík, Lumír

2012-01-01

Thermoregulatory behaviour represents an important component of ectotherm non-genetic adaptive capacity that mitigates the impact of ongoing climate change. The buffering role of behavioural thermoregulation has been attributed solely to the ability to maintain near optimal body temperature for sufficiently extended periods under altered thermal conditions. The widespread occurrence of plastic modification of target temperatures that an ectotherm aims to achieve (preferred body temperatures) has been largely overlooked. I argue that plasticity of target temperatures may significantly contribute to an ectotherm's adaptive capacity. Its contribution to population persistence depends on both the effectiveness of acute thermoregulatory adjustments (reactivity) in buffering selection pressures in a changing thermal environment, and the total costs of thermoregulation (i.e. reactivity and plasticity) in a given environment. The direction and magnitude of plastic shifts in preferred body temperatures can be incorporated into mechanistic models, to improve predictions of the impact of global climate change on ectotherm populations. PMID:22072284

Plasticity of preferred body temperatures as means of coping with climate change?

PubMed

Gvozdík, Lumír

2012-04-23

Thermoregulatory behaviour represents an important component of ectotherm non-genetic adaptive capacity that mitigates the impact of ongoing climate change. The buffering role of behavioural thermoregulation has been attributed solely to the ability to maintain near optimal body temperature for sufficiently extended periods under altered thermal conditions. The widespread occurrence of plastic modification of target temperatures that an ectotherm aims to achieve (preferred body temperatures) has been largely overlooked. I argue that plasticity of target temperatures may significantly contribute to an ectotherm's adaptive capacity. Its contribution to population persistence depends on both the effectiveness of acute thermoregulatory adjustments (reactivity) in buffering selection pressures in a changing thermal environment, and the total costs of thermoregulation (i.e. reactivity and plasticity) in a given environment. The direction and magnitude of plastic shifts in preferred body temperatures can be incorporated into mechanistic models, to improve predictions of the impact of global climate change on ectotherm populations.

Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change: new challenges for ecology and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pauchard, Aníbal; Albihn, Ann; Alexander, Jake; Burgess, Treena; Daehler, Curt; Essl, Franz; Evengard, Birgitta; Greenwood, Greg; Haider, Sylvia; Lenoir, Jonathan; McDougall, K.; Milbau, Ann; Muths, Erin L.; Nunez, Martin; Pellissier, Lois; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa; Robertson, Mark; Sanders, Nathan; Kueffer, Christoph

2016-01-01

Cold environments at high elevation and high latitude are often viewed as resistant to biological invasions. However, climate warming, land use change and associated increased connectivity all increase the risk of biological invasions in these environments. Here we present a summary of the key discussions of the workshop ‘Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges’ (Flen, Sweden, 1–3 June 2015). The aims of the workshop were to (1) increase awareness about the growing importance of species expansion—both non-native and native—at high elevation and high latitude with climate change, (2) review existing knowledge about invasion risks in these areas, and (3) encourage more research on how species will move and interact in cold environments, the consequences for biodiversity, and animal and human health and wellbeing. The diversity of potential and actual invaders reported at the workshop and the likely interactions between them create major challenges for managers of cold environments. However, since these cold environments have experienced fewer invasions when compared with many warmer, more populated environments, prevention has a real chance of success, especially if it is coupled with prioritisation schemes for targeting invaders likely to have greatest impact. Communication and co-operation between cold environment regions will facilitate rapid response, and maximise the use of limited research and management resources.

Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

PubMed

Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

2017-11-14

Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, R. B.

2010-12-01

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

Analysis of the evolution of precipitation in the Haihe river basin of China under changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xiangyi; Liu, Jiahong; Gong, Jiaguo

2018-02-01

Precipitation is one of the important factors of water cycle and main sources of regional water resources. It is of great significance to analyze the evolution of precipitation under changing environment for identifying the evolution law of water resources, thus can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the formulation of related policies and measures. Generally, analysis of the evolution of precipitation consists of three levels: analysis the observed precipitation change based on measured data, explore the possible factors responsible for the precipitation change, and estimate the change trend of precipitation under changing environment. As the political and cultural centre of China, the climatic conditions in the Haihe river basin have greatly changed in recent decades. This study analyses the evolution of precipitation in the basin under changing environment based on observed meteorological data, GCMs and statistical methods. Firstly, based on the observed precipitation data during 1961-2000 at 26 meteorological stations in the basin, the actual precipitation change in the basin is analyzed. Secondly, the observed precipitation change in the basin is attributed using the fingerprint-based attribution method, and the causes of the observed precipitation change is identified. Finally, the change trend of precipitation in the basin under climate change in the future is predicted based on GCMs and a statistical downscaling model. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2000, the precipitation in the basin showed a decreasing trend, and the possible mutation time was 1965; 2) natural variability may be the factor responsible for the observed precipitation change in the basin; 3) under climate change in the future, precipitation in the basin will slightly increase by 4.8% comparing with the average, and the extremes will not vary significantly.

The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael; Shine, Richard; Porter, Warren P

2009-03-10

Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded" terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.

The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer “cold-blooded” animals against climate warming

PubMed Central

Kearney, Michael; Shine, Richard; Porter, Warren P.

2009-01-01

Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most “cold-blooded” terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts. PMID:19234117

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

If You Change Yourself, the World Changes: The Effect of Exhibition on Preservice Science Teachers' Views about Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aksüt, Pelin; Dogan, Nihal; Bahar, Mehmet

2016-01-01

Although learning can occur in many environments e.g. science museum or zoo, some studies reported that teachers are prone to avoid outdoor activities since they lack of field trip training. For that reason; this study aims to explore the effect of the exhibition on preservice science teachers' views about global climate change (GCC) as well as…

Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

PubMed

Hopkins, Debbie

2015-03-01

Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon

2017-04-01

Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the afforestation of 1000 km2 increases the mean surface atmospheric temperature by +0.18°C. However, during the same season, afforestation reduces the occurrence of extreme temperatures (> 30°C). By analysing LULCC impacts on both mean climate and extremes, this study aims to possibly raise awareness among decision-makers and land planners on the role LULCCs may play in the context of climate change. References Drobinski, P., et al.: Model of the Regional Coupled Earth system (MORCE): Application to process and climate studies in vulnerable regions, Environ. Modell. Softw., 35, 1-18, 2012. Galos, B., et al.: Regional characteristics of climate change altering effects of afforestation, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 2015. Mahmood, R., et al.: Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 929-953, 2014. Pielke, R. A., et al.: Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence, WIREs Clim Change, 2(6), 828-850, 2011. Stefanon, M., et al.: Simulating the effect of anthropogenic vegetation land cover on heatwave temperatures over central France, Clim. Res., 60: 133-146, 2014. Vautard R., et al.: The European climate under a 2° C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 2014.

Reducing Our Carbon Footprint: Frontiers in Climate Forecasting (LBNL Science at the Theater)

ScienceCinema

Collins, Bill [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2018-06-07

Bill Collins directs Berkeley Lab's research dedicated to atmospheric and climate science. Previously, he headed the development of one of the leading climate models used in international studies of global warming. His work has confirmed that man-made greenhouse gases are probably the main culprits of recent warming and future warming poses very real challenges for the environment and society. A lead author of the most recent assessment of the science of climate change by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Collins wants to create a new kind of climate model, one that will integrate cutting-edge climate science with accurate predictions people can use to plan their lives

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

2018-05-01

Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

Impact of Urban Surfaces on Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. M.

2004-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess the "risk of human-induced climate change". Such reports are used by decision-makers around the world to assess how our climate is changing. Its reports are widely respected and cited and have been highly influential in forming national and international responses to climate change. The Fourth Assessment report includes a section on the effects of surface processes on climate. This sub-chapter provides an overview of recent developments related to the impact of cities on rainfall. It highlights the possible mechanisms that buildings, urban heat islands, urban aerosols or pollution, and other human factors in cities that can affect rainfall.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua: instrument stability and data products for climate observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, M.; Aumann, H.; Strow, L.; Broberg, S.; Gaiser, S.

2003-01-01

30th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of the Environment (ISRSE) NASA Honolulu, Hawaii, USAThis paper discusses the stability of the AIRS instrument as measured pre-flight and in-orbit. In order differentiate instrument related changes with true changes in climate observations, the instrument stability must be demonstrated.

Greening Spires: Universities and the Green Agenda

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Universities UK, 2008

2008-01-01

We are in a time of unprecedented interest in the environment, especially climate change. What used to be purely an environmental issue has been pushed to the forefront of public and media interest by the release of the "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change" and Al Gore's documentary "An Inconvenient Truth."…

Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

PubMed

Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

2018-05-01

Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

2003-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

Climate change and adaptational impacts in coastal systems: the case of sea defences.

PubMed

Firth, Louise B; Mieszkowska, Nova; Thompson, Richard C; Hawkins, Stephen J

2013-09-01

We briefly review how coastal ecosystems are responding to and being impacted by climate change, one of the greatest challenges facing society today. In adapting to rising and stormier seas associated with climate change, coastal defence structures are proliferating and becoming dominant coastal features, particularly in urbanised areas. Whilst the primary function of these structures is to protect coastal property and infrastructure, they inevitably have a significant secondary impact on the local environment and ecosystems. In this review we outline some of the negative and positive effects of these structures on physical processes, impacts on marine species, and the novel engineering approaches that have been employed to improve the ecological value of these structures in recent years. Finally we outline guidelines for an environmentally sensitive approach to design of such structures in the marine environment.

The origin of climate changes.

PubMed

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

Deterministic or Probabilistic - Robustness or Resilience: How to Respond to Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Earnest, D.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Our response to climate change is dominated by a deterministic approach that emphasizes the interaction between only the natural and the built environment. But in the non-ergodic world of unprecedented climate change, social factors drive recovery from unforeseen Black Swans much more than natural or built ones. Particularly the sea level rise discussion focuses on deterministic predictions, accounting for uncertainties in major driving processes with a set of forcing scenarios and public deliberations on which of the plausible trajectories is most likely. Science focuses on the prediction of future climate change, and policies focus on mitigation of both climate change itself and its impacts. The deterministic approach is based on two basic assumptions: 1) Climate change is an ergodic process; 2) The urban coast is a robust system. Evidence suggests that these assumptions may not hold. Anthropogenic changes are pushing key parameters of the climate system outside of the natural range of variability from the last 1 Million years, creating the potential for environmental Black Swans. A probabilistic approach allows for non-ergodic processes and focuses more on resilience, hence does not depend on the two assumptions. Recent experience with hurricanes revealed threshold limitations of the built environment of the urban coast, which, once exceeded, brought to the forefront the importance of the social fabric and social networking in evaluating resilience. Resilience strongly depends on social capital, and building social capital that can create resilience must be a key element in our response to climate change. Although social capital cannot mitigate hazards, social scientists have found that communities rich in strong norms of cooperation recover more quickly than communities without social capital. There is growing evidence that the built environment can affect the social capital of a community, for example public health and perceptions of public safety. This suggests an intriguing hypothesis: disaster risk reduction programs need to account for whether they also facilitate the public trust, cooperation, and communication needed to recover from a disaster. Our work in the Hampton Roads area, where the probability of hazardous flooding and inundation events exceeding the thresholds of the infrastructure is high, suggests that to facilitate the paradigm shift from the deterministic to a probabilistic approach, natural sciences have to focus on hazard probabilities, while engineering and social sciences have to work together to understand how interactions of the built and social environments impact robustness and resilience. The current science-policy relationship needs to be augmented by social structures that can learn from previous unexpected events. In this response to climate change, science does not have the primary goal to reduce uncertainties and prediction errors, but rather to develop processes that can utilize uncertainties and surprises to increase robustness, strengthen resilience, and reduce fragility of the social systems during times when infrastructure fails.

The PETM in the coastal ocean: changes in redox, productivity, and organic matter sources recorded in mid-Atlantic sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, S. L.; Baczynski, A. A.; Vornlocher, J.; Freeman, K. H.

2016-12-01

Climate events in the geologic record reveal the broad array of Earth's responses to carbon cycle perturbations, and provide valuable insights to the predicted impacts of future anthropogenic climate change. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal was linked to a rapid injection of isotopically light carbon into Earth's ocean-atmosphere system, and this event serves as the best-known analogue for anthropogenic climate change. The addition of 4500 Gt CO2 over < 20,000 years, estimated based on carbon isotope excursions of 3-5‰ in marine and terrestrial records, was accompanied by abrupt global warming of 5-9 oC. Changes in ocean redox chemistry, productivity, sediment accumulation, and organic matter sourcing often accompany climate and carbon cycle perturbations and have been implicated in PETM off-shore ocean records. Yet, despite numerous studies of biomarkers and organic matter in terrestrial and marine PETM records, we lack organic records from truly coastal environments, leaving a gap in our understanding of the land-ocean interface and how the shallow marine environments changed during the PETM. To better understand the effects of climate change on coastal sites and the marine sedimentary records during the PETM, we investigated the role of redox, productivity, and organic matter sourcing using recently collected cores from the paleo-Atlantic shelf. These new coastal PETM records provide needed datasets to understand biogeochemical changes in the shallow marine environment. Here, we present lipid biomarkers (pristane, phytane, n-alkanes, hopanoids, steranes, GDGTs) and compound-specific carbon isotope data along a transect from proximal coastal to more distal inner shelf. These molecular records help detail the intensity of water column stratification, productivity, and carbon source changes, as well as shifting terrestrial and marine inputs. Constraining the marine carbon isotope excursion, organic matter sourcing, and water column chemistry along the shallow shelf during the PETM reveals the impact of abrupt changes in the carbon cycle and global temperatures on the coastal ocean.

Adaptation of mammalian host-pathogen interactions in a changing arctic environment

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Many arctic mammals are adapted to live year-round in extreme environments with low winter temperatures and great seasonal variations in key variables (e.g. sunlight, food, temperature, moisture). The interaction between hosts and pathogens in high northern latitudes is not very well understood with respect to intra-annual cycles (seasons). The annual cycles of interacting pathogen and host biology is regulated in part by highly synchronized temperature and photoperiod changes during seasonal transitions (e.g., freezeup and breakup). With a warming climate, only one of these key biological cues will undergo drastic changes, while the other will remain fixed. This uncoupling can theoretically have drastic consequences on host-pathogen interactions. These poorly understood cues together with a changing climate by itself will challenge host populations that are adapted to pathogens under the historic and current climate regime. We will review adaptations of both host and pathogens to the extreme conditions at high latitudes and explore some potential consequences of rapid changes in the Arctic. PMID:21392401

Adaptation of mammalian host-pathogen interactions in a changing arctic environment.

PubMed

Hueffer, Karsten; O'Hara, Todd M; Follmann, Erich H

2011-03-11

Many arctic mammals are adapted to live year-round in extreme environments with low winter temperatures and great seasonal variations in key variables (e.g. sunlight, food, temperature, moisture). The interaction between hosts and pathogens in high northern latitudes is not very well understood with respect to intra-annual cycles (seasons). The annual cycles of interacting pathogen and host biology is regulated in part by highly synchronized temperature and photoperiod changes during seasonal transitions (e.g., freezeup and breakup). With a warming climate, only one of these key biological cues will undergo drastic changes, while the other will remain fixed. This uncoupling can theoretically have drastic consequences on host-pathogen interactions. These poorly understood cues together with a changing climate by itself will challenge host populations that are adapted to pathogens under the historic and current climate regime. We will review adaptations of both host and pathogens to the extreme conditions at high latitudes and explore some potential consequences of rapid changes in the Arctic.

Changes in Migration Pattern of Transhumance due to Climate Change: An Empirical Analysis of Gaddi Community of Himachal Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Himanshu; Wasini Pandey, Bindhy

2017-04-01

Transhumance is a complex and traditional livelihood system seeking to maintain equilibrium between pastures, livestock and local people in variable and inhospitable environments. In Western Himalayas in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, pastoral groups of Gaddis inhabit almost inaccessible areas, where scarce resources and extreme climatic conditions limit options for alternative land use and livelihood systems. In such a harsh and unforgiving environment, mobility in the form of transhumance has been the traditional ecological response to climatic extremes. However, recently, such additional factors as global as well as regional climate change have brought about changes in the tree line, snow line and pastoral grounds along the historical route of seasonal migration of the Gaddis. The growing unpredictability of the once static route of migration has raised the possibility of Gaddis shifting to alternative land use and land management techniques. In the present research, we explore how transhumant pastoralism has been sustained and stimulated in the context of socioeconomic and climate change in the mountainous region of Himachal Pradesh and the future challenges that it faces. Based on case study research conducted in Chamba district in Himachal Pradesh; we have analysed the status, opportunities, and constraints of transhumant pastoralism in the changing context and modeled the possible alternative land use decisions. Finally we conclude that unless there are affirmative and progressive policy and institutional framework to support transhumant system, the indigenous practice will soon disappear from this part of the world. Keywords: Climate change, Gaddis, Himachal Pradesh, Transhumance, Alternative Land Use

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A.; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research. PMID:25922938

Warming in the Northern Great Plains: Impact and Response in the Agricultural Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seielstad, G.; Welling, L.

2001-12-01

Because agricultural production in the northern Great Plains contributes significantly to both domestic and international markets the impacts of climate change, as well as the response strategies undertaken by the region's residents, will be felt throughout the nation and the world. The national assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the United States has pointed out that the northern Great Plains could be favored under global warming scenarios in that future climates could increase crop yields [Reilly, Tubiello, McCarl, and Melillo, 2000]. Yield, though, is only one measure of the consequences that rapid warming might have on this region. Challenges to a changing environment must be met by people. Producers here, as well as in other agricultural regions, already function under multiple stresses that are completely separate from climate variability and change. These include falling prices, globalization, complex trade relations, changes in government policy, environmental constraints, and changing consumer preferences. It is against the backdrop of these stresses that pending climate changes must be considered. Interactions with stakeholders through the NGP Assessment workshops, held in 1997 and 1999, identified key concerns and outlined potential mitigation and optimization strategies for the consequences of climate change in this region. We will present examples of the successful implementation of some of these strategies: actions that farmers and ranchers are employing to 1) increase their awareness of environmental factors, 2) enhance their ability to respond quickly to environmental change, 3) improve their economic returns, and 4) decrease environmental degradation. We will also highlight other "no regrets" actions and policies under consideration that may offer individual producers greater flexibility in their management decisions and provide a healthier environment for society at large.

Q-BIC3 - A Québec-Bavarian international collaboration for adapting regional watershed management to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2010-05-01

Adapting to the impacts of climate change is certainly one of the major challenges in water resources management over the next decades. Adaptation to climate change risks is most crucial in this domain, since projected increase in mean air temperature in combination with an expected increase in the temporal variability of precipitation patterns will contribute to pressure on current water availability, allocation and management practices. The latter often involve the utilization of valuable infrastructure, such as dams, reservoirs and water intakes, for which adaptation options must by developed over long-term and often dynamic planning horizons. Research to establish novel methodologies for improved adaptation to climate change is thus very important and only beginning to emerge in regional watershed management. The presented project Q-BIC³, funded by the Bavarian Minstry for the Environment and the Québec Ministère du Développement économique, de l'Innovation et de l'Exportation, aims to develop and apply a newly designed spectrum of tools to support the improved assessment of adaptation options to climate change in regional watershed management. It addresses in particular selected study sites in Québec and Bavaria. The following key issues have been prioritized within Q-BIC³: i) The definition of potential adaptation options in the context of climate change for pre-targeted water management key issues using a subsequent and logical chain of modelling tools (climate, hydrological and water management modeling tools) ii) The definition of an approach that accounts for hydrological projection uncertainties in the search for potential adaptation options in the context of climate change iii) The investigation of the required complexity in hydrological models to estimate climate change impacts and to develop specific adaptation options for Québec and Bavaria watersheds. iv) The development and prototyping of a regionally transferable and modular modelling system for integrated watershed management under climate change conditions. The study sites under investigation, namely the Haut-Saint Francois and Gatineau watersheds in Québec and the Isar and Regnitz catchments in Bavaria, are under heavy anthropogenic use. Intense dam and reservoir operations and even water transfer systems are in place to satisfy multi-purpose demands on available water resources. These are imposing extreme modifications to the natural flow regimes. In the first phase of the project, climatic forcing, stemming from an ensemble of selected GCM and RCM runs, is applied to a variety of hydrological models with different complexity. The derived projections of future hydrological conditions serve to investigate, whether current operation rules and/or existing infrastructure needs to be adapted to a changing environment. First findings demonstrate the large uncertainties associated to the model chain outputs, but also indicate that related adaptation is indispensable to meet the challenges of the rapidly changing man-environment systems.

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

Mars Exploration Rover Field Observations of Impact Craters at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum and Implications for Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golombek, M.; Grant, J. A.; Crumpler, L. S.

2005-01-01

The Mars Exploration Rovers have provided a field geologist's perspective of impact craters in various states of degradation along their traverses at Gusev crater and Meridiani Planum. This abstract will describe the craters observed and changes to the craters that constrain the erosion rates and the climate [l]. Changes to craters on the plains of Gusev argue for a dry and desiccating environment since the Late Hesperian in contrast to the wet and likely warm environment in the Late Noachian at Meridiani in which the sulfate evaporites were deposited in salt-water playas or sabkhas.

An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuke; Mathewson, Paul D; Zhang, Qiongyue; Porter, Warren P; Ran, Jianghong

2018-04-01

Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species' adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species' distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa

PubMed Central

Ingels, Jeroen; Vanreusel, Ann; Brandt, Angelika; Catarino, Ana I; David, Bruno; De Ridder, Chantal; Dubois, Philippe; Gooday, Andrew J; Martin, Patrick; Pasotti, Francesca; Robert, Henri

2012-01-01

Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed. PMID:22423336

Refuge behaviour from outdoor thermal environmental stress and seasonal differences of thermal sense in tropical urban climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurazumi, Y.; Ishii, J.; Fukagawa, K.; Kondo, E.; Aruninta, A.

2017-12-01

Thermal sensation affects body temperature regulation. As a starting point for behavioral body temperature regulation taken to improve from a poor thermal environment to a more pleasant environment, thermal sense of thermal environment stimulus is important. The poupose of this sutudy is to use the outdoor thermal environment evaluation index ETFe to quantify effects on thermal sensations of the human body of a tropical region climate with small annual temperature differences, and to examine seasonal differences in thermal sensation. It was found temperature preferences were lower in the winter season than in the dry season, and that a tolerance for higher temperatures in the dry season than in the winter season. It was found effects of seasonal differences of the thermal environment appear in quantitative changes in thermal sensations. It was found that effects of seasonal differences of the thermal environment do not greatly affect quantitative changes in thermal comfort.

Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Environmental Health: Implications for the Nursing Profession.

PubMed

Nicholas, Patrice K; Breakey, Suellen

2017-11-01

Climate change is an emerging challenge linked to negative outcomes for the environment and human health. Since the 1960s, there has been a growing recognition of the need to address climate change and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in the warming of our planet. There are also deleterious health outcomes linked to complex climate changes that are emerging in the 21st century. This article addresses the social justice issues associated with climate change and human health and discussion of climate justice. Discussion paper. A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for articles, texts, and documents related to climate change, climate justice, and human health. The literature suggests that those who contribute least to global warming are those who will disproportionately be affected by the negative health outcomes of climate change. The concept of climate justice and the role of the Mary Robinson Foundation-Climate Justice are discussed within a framework of nursing's professional responsibility and the importance of social justice for the world's people. The nursing profession must take a leadership role in engaging in policy and advocacy discussions in addressing the looming problems associated with climate change. Nursing organizations have adopted resolutions and engaged in leadership roles to address climate change at the local, regional, national, and global level. It is essential that nurses embrace concepts related to social justice and engage in the policy debate regarding the deleterious effects on human health related to global warming and climate change. Nursing's commitment to social justice offers an opportunity to offer significant global leadership in addressing the health implications related to climate change. Recognizing the negative impacts of climate change on well-being and the underlying socioeconomic reasons for their disproportionate and inequitable distribution can expand and optimize the profession's role in education, practice, research, and policy-making efforts to address climate change. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program: supporting climate science and enhancing climate services in Pacific Island Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa

2013-04-01

Over the past few years, significant progress in developing climate science for the Pacific has been achieved through a number of research projects undertaken under the Australian government International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI). Climate change has major impact on Pacific Island Countries and advancement in understanding past, present and futures climate in the region is vital for island nation to develop adaptation strategies to their rapidly changing environment. This new science is now supporting new services for a wide range of stakeholders in the Pacific through the National Meteorological Agencies of the region. Seasonal climate prediction is particularly important for planning in agriculture, tourism and other weather-sensitive industries, with operational services provided by all National Meteorological Services in the region. The interaction between climate variability and climate change, for example during droughts or very warm seasons, means that much of the early impacts of climate change are being felt through seasonal variability. A means to reduce these impacts is to improve forecasts to support decision making. Historically, seasonal climate prediction has been developed based on statistical past relationship. Statistical methods relate meteorological variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) to indices which describe large-scale environment (e.g. ENSO indices) using historical data. However, with observed climate change, statistical approaches based on historical data are getting less accurate and less reliable. Recognising the value of seasonal forecasts, we have used outputs of a dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), to develop web-based information tools (http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/index.shtml) which are now used by climate services in 15 partner countries in the Pacific for preparing seasonal climate outlooks. Initial comparison conducted during 2012 has shown that the predictive skill of POAMA is consistently higher than skill of statistical-based method. Presently, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, we are developing dynamical model-based seasonal climate prediction for climate extremes. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones which are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas of Australia and Pacific Island Countries. To analyse historical cyclone data, we developed a consolidate archive for the Southern Hemisphere and North-Western Pacific (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/). Using dynamical climate models (POAMA and Japan Meteorological Agency's model), we work on improving accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved seasonal climate prediction based on dynamical models will further enhance climate services in Australia and Pacific Island Countries.

Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change

PubMed Central

Bellon, Mauricio R.; Hodson, David; Hellin, Jon

2011-01-01

Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10–2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world. PMID:21825131

Making Climate Hot: Preparing Scientists and Teachers for Climate Change Communication and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buhr, S. M.; Wise, S. B.

2008-05-01

Anyone having anything to do with climate change science (or even geosciences) is increasingly asked to communicate about climate change with friends and family, media, the general public, and students. But, we have often not had the training to communicate with simplicity and clarity about such a complex topic. Furthermore, the need to know how to accommodate controversy, common misconceptions, and contrarian arguments complicates the task. The CIRES Education and Outreach group has developed a short professional development workshop "Making Climate Hot: How to Communicate Effectively about Climate Change". The goals of the workshop are to make scientists and educators aware of best practices in climate change communications, provide some tools for crafting messages, and allow participants to practice skills in a supportive, low-risk environment. The "Making Climate Hot" workshop has been piloted with scientists and university communicators, teachers and environmental educators and college students anxious to communicate with family and roommates. The most and least effective aspects of the workshop will be described, along with the lessons learned and next steps.

Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management.

PubMed

Kellomäki, Seppo; Peltola, Heli; Nuutinen, Tuula; Korhonen, Kari T; Strandman, Harri

2008-07-12

This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70 degrees N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.

The application of genomics and bioinformatics to accelerate crop improvement in a changing climate.

PubMed

Batley, Jacqueline; Edwards, David

2016-04-01

The changing climate and growing global population will increase pressure on our ability to produce sufficient food. The breeding of novel crops and the adaptation of current crops to the new environment are required to ensure continued food production. Advances in genomics offer the potential to accelerate the genomics based breeding of crop plants. However, relating genomic data to climate related agronomic traits for use in breeding remains a huge challenge, and one which will require coordination of diverse skills and expertise. Bioinformatics, when combined with genomics has the potential to help maintain food security in the face of climate change through the accelerated production of climate ready crops. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-01

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-12

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Late Holocene climate change in the western Mediterranean: centennial-scale vegetation and North Atlantic Oscillation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos Román, M. J.; Jimenez-Moreno, G.; Anderson, R. S.; García-Alix, A.; Toney, J. L.; Jiménez-Espejo, F. J. J.; Carrión, J. S.

2015-12-01

Sediments from alpine peat bogs and lakes from the Sierra Nevada in southeastern Spain (western Mediterranean area) have been very informative in terms of how vegetation and wetland environments were impacted by past climate change. Recently, many studies try to find out the relationship between solar activity, atmosphere and ocean dynamics and changes in the terrestrial environments. The Mediterranean is a very sensitive area with respect to atmospheric dynamics due to (1) its location, right in the boundary between subtropical and temperate climate systems and (2) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the main mechanism that influence present climate in this area. Here we present a multi-proxy high-resolution study from Borreguil de la Caldera (BdlC), a peat bog that records the last ca. 4500 cal yr BP of vegetation, fire, human impact and climate history from the Sierra Nevada. The pollen, charcoal and non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) reconstruction in the BdlC-01 record evidence relative humidity changes in the last millennia interrupting the late Holocene aridification trend. This study shows a relative arid period between ca. 4000 and 3100 cal yr BP; the Iberian Roman humid period (ca. 2600 to 1600 cal yr BP); a relative arid period during the Dark Ages (from ca. AD 500 to AD 900) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (from ca. AD 900 to ca. AD 1300) and predominantly wetter conditions corresponding with The Little Ice Age period (from ca. AD 1300 to AD 1850). This climate variability could be explained by centennial scale changes in the NAO and solar activity.

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

2018-03-01

Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

Is Climate Chang Responsible to Recent Urban Flooding in Devloping Cities in Africa? A Case study of Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moges, Semu; Raschid-Sally, Liqa; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

2013-04-01

Cities in Africa show extraordinary expansion of the built environment and imperviousness of the surface condition. Addis Ababa is a case in point, where over the priod of 1984 to 2002, the city asphalted area has increased from 4.72 sq.km (1984) to 27.7 sq.km (2002). Similarly the paved area has expanded five fold from the original 11.1 sq.km, whilst the built environment expanded from 60.1 to 212.7 sq.km. Using hydrological modeling, we demonstrated due to the surface condition change, runoff generation potential has shown significant increase from 28% (in 1984) to 45% (in 2002), showing over 60% change in the runoff volume. The changing condition of the surface is increasing anabtedly, worsening the flooding condition. Similarly, climate change study shows likely increase of precipitation in and around Addis Ababa by about 13 to 17% and comparative increase in flooding. Unlike many cities in Europe, cities in developing countries are confronted with impact emanating from climate change as well as surface condition change. The impact of flooding caused due to the expansion of built environment is found to be more significant in the short term that the climate change, however, the climate change may dominate the long term future of flooding pattern as cities mature towards 2050. Therefore, It is important to view the impacts expansion of built environment and climate change in tandem in future time horizon since the dominance of the impact is different in different temporal scale. In the case of Addis Ababa, we strongly present the following four suggesions: i) the city adminstration re-estabilish the abandoned flood and drainage department of the city as the main flood regulatory and management body working in tandem with Addis Ababa Roads Authority, Water Supply and Sanitation Authority and Urban Planning Authority; ii) The old design guidlines for palnning and design of urban drainage system is not working any more (assumed stationarity condition), we suggest the planning and design criteria of urban drainage systems be immediately revised and incorporated to reflect the new reality of hydrologial non-stationarity; iii) for Addis Ababa City to be Resilient, we suggest implementation of 'Best Managemnt Practice" that incorporates arresting runoff from the source for benefial use, application of runoff treatment practices (open space, infiltration galleries, retardnat ponds, etc) and flood flow control drainage system based on new design criteria, and iv) instituting improved weather forecasting and early warning system.

The Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses (SAER)-framework for exploring perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture.

PubMed

Mitter, Hermine; Schönhart, Martin; Larcher, Manuela; Schmid, Erwin

2018-03-01

Empirical findings on actors' roles and responsibilities in the climate change adaptation process are rare even though cooperation between private and public actors is perceived important to foster adaptation in agriculture. We therefore developed the framework SAER (Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses) to investigate perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture at regional scale. In particular, we explore agricultural experts' perceptions on (i) climatic and non-climatic factors stimulating private adaptation, (ii) farm adaption actions, (iii) potential on-farm and off-farm effects from adaptation, and (iv) the relationships between private and public adaptation. The SAER-framework is built on a comprehensive literature review and empirical findings from semi-structured interviews with agricultural experts from two case study regions in Austria. We find that private adaptation is perceived as incremental, systemic or transformational. It is typically stimulated by a mix of bio-physical and socio-economic on-farm and off-farm factors. Stimulating factors related to climate change are perceived of highest relevance for systemic and transformational adaptation whereas already implemented adaptation is mostly perceived to be incremental. Perceived effects of private adaptation are related to the environment, weather and climate, quality and quantity of agricultural products as well as human, social and economic resources. Our results also show that public adaptation can influence factors stimulating private adaptation as well as adaptation effects through the design and development of the legal, policy and organizational environment as well as the provision of educational, informational, financial, and technical infrastructure. Hence, facilitating existing and new collaborations between private and public actors may enable farmers to adapt effectively to climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Kangalawe, Richard Y M; Yanda, Pius Z

2010-04-23

Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.

Climate Change Impact on the Southeastern Europe Security Environment and the Increasing Role of the Bulgarian Army as the World Warms

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-10

expected risks posed by climate change will reshape the Bulgarian Army structure and capabilities if the Army is to develop the proficiency to face...thousands of local timber based manufacturers and small scaled industries, and a few big and international oriented pulp, paper and board producers...prevention, social timber supply, etc.55 54 Union of Concerned Scientists, “Climate Hot Map,” accessed 20

Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

2012-06-01

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

Regional climatic warming drives long-term community changes of British marine fish.

PubMed Central

Genner, Martin J.; Sims, David W.; Wearmouth, Victoria J.; Southall, Emily J.; Southward, Alan J.; Henderson, Peter A.; Hawkins, Stephen J.

2004-01-01

Climatic change has been implicated as the cause of abundance fluctuations in marine fish populations worldwide, but the effects on whole communities are poorly understood. We examined the effects of regional climatic change on two fish assemblages using independent datasets from inshore marine (English Channel, 1913-2002) and estuarine environments (Bristol Channel, 1981-2001). Our results show that climatic change has had dramatic effects on community composition. Each assemblage contained a subset of dominant species whose abundances were strongly linked to annual mean sea-surface temperature. Species' latitudinal ranges were not good predictors of species-level responses, however, and the same species did not show congruent trends between sites. This suggests that within a region, populations of the same species may respond differently to climatic change, possibly owing to additional local environmental determinants, interspecific ecological interactions and dispersal capacity. This will make species-level responses difficult to predict within geographically differentiated communities. PMID:15156925

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

PubMed

Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.

2008-12-01

South Florida is home to over 7 million people and its population is projected to increase to over 10 million people by 2025 and possibly 12-15 million by 2050. Through Federal/State/Local partnerships, the Greater Everglades is being restored under numerous water resources management projects requiring large investments of time and money. Recent climate change projections as published in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have the potential to cause significant impacts on flood control and water supply functions of water resources management, and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida. More recent estimates of sea level rise for south Florida are much higher than those in the IPCC report and if such projections become a reality, consequences may be disastrous. It is extremely important to understand the extent of global projections for various emission scenarios, their ability to represent the climatology of local regions, and the potential vulnerabilities of both climate change and sea level rise on water resources management. Implications of natural variability of the climate and teleconnections in South Florida are understood with a reasonable degree of certainty. Recent emphasis on climate change due to human-induced impacts have generated new questions on the sustainability of coastal environments with a heightened concern for the success of large-scale environmental projects throughout South Florida. An assessment of the precipitation projections of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) shows that their ability to represent the landscape of Florida and predict historical climate patterns may be limited. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida under changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale, hydrologic simulation model was conducted. The results show the vulnerability of projected climate change on water supply for all water sectors including the environment, and the potential impact of sea level rise on coastal regions. Questions on the potential impacts of climate change including sea level rise need to be investigated along with the uncertainties of projections to provide critical information for decision making on the planned infrastructure and operational changes in south Florida.

Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigras, S. C.

2009-12-01

It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for participation of indigenous peoples in the development and management process. The effective application of accumulated climate change knowledge requires development of a policy framework that can address cumulative effects and take into account various stakeholders, multi-jurisdictional regulations and interests, environmental impacts and other concerns specific to the Arctic. Fundamental to such a framework are responsible economic development, sustainable communities, the commitment to achieving consensus between parties, and the use of traditional knowledge. One way to facilitate collaborative policy making is to increase international co-operation between Northerners, indigenous peoples, scientists, politicians and policy makers. The International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 proved a solid stepping-stone for multinational collaborations. Clear communication with politicians and policy-makers is challenging but essential, despite the lingering uncertainties in climate-change science. Public awareness helps considerably in getting messages to politicians, and it is therefore important that scientists and researchers share their results not only with colleagues but also with the general public.

Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jingting; Ren, Wei; An, Pingli; Pan, Zhihua; Wang, Liwei; Dong, Zhiqiang; He, Di; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin

2015-01-01

It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983–1999 and 2000–2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6–11.0% and 19.5–92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming. PMID:26336098

Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingting; Ren, Wei; An, Pingli; Pan, Zhihua; Wang, Liwei; Dong, Zhiqiang; He, Di; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin

2015-01-01

It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983-1999 and 2000-2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6-11.0% and 19.5-92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming.

Goals and Values in School: A Model Developed for Describing, Evaluating and Changing the Social Climate of Learning Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allodi, Mara Westling

2010-01-01

This paper defines a broad model of the psychosocial climate in educational settings. The model was developed from a general theory of learning environments, on a theory of human values and on empirical studies of children's evaluations of their schools. The contents of the model are creativity, stimulation, achievement, self-efficacy, creativity,…

Climate Change and Professional Surveying Programmes of Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dent, Peter; Dalton, Gina

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this research paper is to examine some of the issues that the UK surveying profession need to consider with regard to climate change in the built environment. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is based on an examination of literature related to adaptation and mitigation and the flow of information in the context of…

Civic Engagement about Climate Change: A Case Study of Three Educators and Their Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chandler, Thomas; Marri, Anand R.

2012-01-01

This collective case study examined how three educators (a high school social studies teacher, a university social studies teacher educator, and minister teaching an adult population) used a multimedia based curriculum guide, "Teaching the Levees", to teach about climate change to examine public priorities in relation to the environment.…

Communicating Climate Change to Visitors of Informal Science Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koepfler, Jes A.; Heimlich, Joe E.; Yocco, Victor S.

2010-01-01

This article reports findings on visitors' preferences for content presentation of a future global warming and climate change exhibit. The study was conducted with two groups: one from the Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, DC, and the other at the Center of Science and Industry in Columbus, Ohio. The…

Determining suitable locations for seed transfer under climate change: a global quantitative method

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove

2012-01-01

Changing climate conditions will complicate efforts to match seed sources with the environments to which they are best adapted. Tree species distributions may have to shift to match new environmental conditions, potentially requiring the establishment of some species entirely outside of their current distributions to thrive. Even within the portions of tree species...

Ecophysiological Response of Managed Loblolly Pine to Changes in Stand Environment

Treesearch

Mary A. Sword; Jim L. Chambers; Dennis A. Gravatt; James D. Haywood; James P. Barnett

1998-01-01

Anticipated shifts in our global climate may expose southern pine ecosystems to such environmental stimuli as elevated carbon dioxide and water and nutrient deficiencies (Hansen et al., 1988; Kirschbaum et al., 1990; Peters, 1990). Global climate change may also increase the degree of stress to which trees are presently exposed (Kirschbaum et al., 1990; Peters, 1990)....

Strategies for conserving forest genetic resources in the face of climate change

Treesearch

John Bradley St. Clair; Glenn Thomas Howe

2011-01-01

Conservation of genetic diversity is important for continued evolution of populations to new environments, as well as continued availability of traits of interest in genetic improvement programs. Rapidly changing climates present new threats to the conservation of forest genetic resources. We can no longer assume that in situ reserves will continue to preserve existing...

Science Organizations Remind Senators of Consensus on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chell, Kaitlin

2009-11-01

AGU and 17 other scientific organizations sent an open letter to the U.S. Senate on 21 October reminding senators of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change. The letter was sent 1 week before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works began a series of hearings on climate change legislation, the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act (Senate bill 1733). The letter states, “Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science.”

Cryospheric Research in China

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-30

marine monitoring for environment and security, using satellite Earth observation technologies), the WCRP/CliC Project (an international cooperative...BIOME4) to simulate the responses of biome distribution to future climate change in China. The simulation results suggest that regional climate

Pleistocene climate and biome evolution modulated at orbital, millennial, and centennial time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooghiemstra, H.

2013-05-01

For the northern Andes we present a multi-proxy record of environmental and climatic change at millennial- to century-scale resolution of the full Pleistocene. The composite record includes the 540-m Funza core (2250-27 ka; 1050-yr resolution) from the Bogotá basin (~4°N, 2550 m asl, 2100 samples), the 58-mcd core (284-27 ka; 60-yr resolution) from the Fúquene basin (~5°N, 2540 m asl 4700 samples), and the 12-m core (last 14 ka; 25-yr resolution) from the La Cocha basin (1°N, 2780 m asl, 550 samples). At high elevations climatic variability is mainly driven by the 41-kyr component of orbital forcing changing into a dominant 100-kyr frequency during the last 0.9 Ma. High elevation intraAndean environments are mainly driven by temperature and atmospheric pCO2 while changes in moisture is an important driver of the Andean environments on the Amazonian flank. The Pleistocene is reflected by MIS 87 to 1, the last interglacial-glacial cycle by D/O-cycles 28 to 1 (and during MIS 7-6 another 15 D/O-style cycles), and the Holocene shows many events with an acceleration of climate change. Repeatedly the subpáramo shrub biome is temporarily lost suggesting vertical migration of forest exceeded the maximum migration capacity of the subpáramo biome. Continuous changes in altitidinal vegetation distribution caused mountains above ~1500 m were alternatingly covered by different biomes. Forests reached only ~125 ka modern species compositions indicating most of the Pleistocene record shows nonanalog vegetation associations, however not preventing modern ecological ranges can be applied to reconstruct past environments. Comparison with Greenland, Antarctic and marine climate records is demonstrated.

Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

2017-11-01

The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

Quantifying loss and damage from anthropogenic climate change - Bridging the gap between two research communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.

2015-12-01

The science of attribution of meteorological events to anthropogenic causes has for the first time been included in the latest assessment of the Physical Science Basis of the Climate, (WGI), of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report AR5 (Stocker et al., 2013). At the same time there is a very rapidly growing body of literature on climate change and its impact on economy, society and environment but apart from very few exemptions no link is made to the causes of these changes. Observed changes in hydrological variables, agriculture, biodiversity and the built environment have been attributed to a changing climate, whether these changes are the result of natural variability or external forcings (Cramer et al., 2014). While the research community represented in WGI assesses whether, and to what extent, recent extreme weather events can be attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the research community of impact specialists asks how climatic changes lead to different impacts largely independent of the causes of such changes. This distinction becomes potentially very relevant with respect to the 2013 established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries under the UNFCCC climate change negotiations. Currently there is no discussion what consists of loss and damage and the reasons for this inexistence of a definition are not primarily scientific but political however, the absence of a definition could potentially lead to absurd consequences if funds in the context of loss and damage would be redistributed, as e.g. suggested, for all low risk high impact events. Here we present the implications of discussed definitions of loss and damage (Huggel et al. 2015) and how scientific evidence could be included. Cramer et al. (2014) Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of WG 2 to AR5 of the IPCC. Huggel, C., Stone, D., Eicken, H., & Hansen, G. (2015). Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies. Clim. Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1441-z. Stocker et al. (eds.) (2013) The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press.

Public Health Nurses’ Knowledge and Attitudes Regarding Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chaudry, Rosemary V.; Mac Crawford, John

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change affects human health, and health departments are urged to act to reduce the severity of these impacts. Yet little is known about the perspective of public health nurses—the largest component of the public health workforce—regarding their roles in addressing health impacts of climate change. Objectives: We determined the knowledge and attitudes of public health nurses concerning climate change and the role of public health nursing in divisions of health departments in addressing health-related impacts of climate change. Differences by demographic subgroups were explored. Methods: An online survey was distributed to nursing directors of U.S. health departments (n = 786) with Internet staff directories. Results: Respondents (n = 176) were primarily female, white public health nursing administrators with ≥ 5 years of experience. Approximately equal percentages of respondents self-identified as having moderate, conservative, and liberal political views. Most agreed that the earth has experienced climate change and that climate change is somewhat controllable. Respondents identified an average of 5 of the 12 listed health-related impacts of climate change, but the modal response was zero impact. Public health nursing was perceived as having responsibility to address health-related impacts of climate change but lacking the ability to address these impacts. Conclusions: Public health nurses view the environment as under threat and see a role for nursing divisions in addressing health effects of climate change. However, they recognize the limited resources and personnel available to devote to this endeavor. PMID:22128069

THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATIONS AND APPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY: INTRODUCTION TO A SETAC INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

PubMed Central

Stahl, Ralph G; Hooper, Michael J; Balbus, John M; Clements, William; Fritz, Alyce; Gouin, Todd; Helm, Roger; Hickey, Christopher; Landis, Wayne; Moe, S Jannicke

2013-01-01

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled “The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.” The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:13–19. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23097130

Response of the groundwater system in the Guanzhong Basin (central China) to climate change and human activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wenke; Zhang, Zaiyong; Duan, Lei; Wang, Zhoufeng; Zhao, Yaqian; Zhang, Qian; Dai, Meiling; Liu, Huizhong; Zheng, Xiaoyan; Sun, Yibo

2018-03-01

The Guanzhong Basin in central China features a booming economy and has suffered severe drought, resulting in serious groundwater depletion in the last 30 years. As a major water resource, groundwater plays a significant role in water supply. The combined impact of climate change and intensive human activities has caused a substantial decline in groundwater recharge and groundwater levels, as well as degradation of groundwater quality and associated changes in the ecosystems. Based on observational data, an integrated approach was used to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on the groundwater system and the base flow of the river basin. Methods included: river runoff records and a multivariate statistical analysis of data including historical groundwater levels and climate; hydro-chemical investigation and trend analysis of the historical hydro-chemical data; wavelet analysis of climate data; and the base flow index. The analyses indicate a clear warming trend and a decreasing trend in rainfall since the 1960s, in addition to increased human activities since the 1970s. The reduction of groundwater recharge in the past 30 years has led to a continuous depletion of groundwater levels, complex changes of the hydro-chemical environment, localized salinization, and a strong decline of the base flow to the river. It is expected that the results will contribute to a more comprehensive management plan for groundwater and the related eco-environment in the face of growing pressures from intensive human activities superimposed on climate change in this region.

Climate Change and Flooding in an Ecologically Fragile Zone of Nigerian Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Ilaje Settlement in Lagos, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, A. F.

2017-12-01

Climate change exacerbates the environmental condition directly or indirectly. The frequency of climate-related disasters worldwide has been on the increase with their amplitude growing. The consequences of climate-related disaster are not limited to loss of lives and properties alone, but also serious repercussions on post-disaster reconstruction, as well as the cost implications for resilience of the infrastructure and natural environment. In developing countries, the low-income group whose income is below the world poverty line is the most vulnerable to the dangers of climate change. To worsen the case, the political and economic strength of these countries in terms of economic resources, technological development and urban planning management necessary for adapting to climate change are relatively weak. This study takes an inventory of the study area environment to establish its environmental state in terms of the extent of its vulnerability and economic strength. It was found that the study area is vulnerable being a coastal area and could be described as a slum settlement. Also, information on frequency and extent of flooding in association with change in temperature was collected. The results show that the frequency of flood occurrence within the period has increased and the increase was attributed to rise in sea level alongside a significant increase in temperature within the period of study. The implications of the findings on loss of lives/properties and continuous decline in the area economic strength as it relates to resilience of the area was discussed. The study suggests an effective urban land use management and control, as well as redevelopment of resilient infrastructure in the area. The study concludes that the increase in temperature for the period as an indicator of climate change causes rise in sea level and the subsequent increase in flooding occurrence. Key Words: Ecologically Fragile Zone, Climate Change, Flooding and Vulnerability.

Climate change and animal health in Africa.

PubMed

Van den Bossche, P; Coetzer, J A W

2008-08-01

Climate change is expected to have direct and indirect impacts on African livestock. Direct impacts include increased ambient temperature, floods and droughts. Indirect impacts are the result of reduced availability of water and forage and changes in the environment that promote the spread of contagious diseases through increased contact between animals, or increased survival or availability of the agent or its intermediate host. The distribution and prevalence of vector-borne diseases may be the most significant effect of climate change. The potential vulnerability of the livestock industry will depend on its ability to adapt to such changes. Enhancing this adaptive capacity presents a practical way of coping with climate change. Adaptive capacity could be increased by enabling the African livestock owner to cope better with animal health problems through appropriate policy measures and institutional support. Developing an effective and sustainable animal health service, associated surveillance and emergency preparedness systems and sustainable disease control and prevention programmes is perhaps the most important strategy for dealing with climate change in many African countries.

Emergent properties of climate-vegetation feedbacks in the North American Monsoon Macrosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, A.; Niu, G.; Zeng, X.

2012-12-01

The ability of ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change and associated disturbances (e.g. wildfires, spread of invasive species) is greatly affected by the stability of feedback interactions between climate and vegetation. In order to study climate-vegetation interactions, such as CO2 and H2O exchange in the North American Monsoon System (NAMS), we plan to couple a community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) used in regional climate models (WRF) with an individual based, spatially explicit vegetation model (ECOTONE). Individual based modeling makes it possible to link individual plant traits with properties of plant communities. Community properties, such as species composition and species distribution arise from dynamic interactions of individual plants with each other, and with their environment. Plants interact with each other through intra- and interspecific competition for resources (H2O, nitrogen), and the outcome of these interactions depends on the properties of the plant community and the environment itself. In turn, the environment is affected by the resulting change in community structure, which may have an impact on the drivers of climate change. First, we performed sensitivity tests of ECOTONE to assess its ability to reproduce vegetation distribution in the NAMS. We compared the land surface model and ECOTONE with regard to their capability to accurately simulate soil moisture, CO2 flux and above ground biomass. For evaluating the models we used the eddy-correlation sensible and latent heat fluxes, CO2 flux and observations of other climate and environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and moisture) from the Santa Rita experimental range. The model intercomparison helped us understand the advantages and disadvantages of each model, providing us guidance for coupling the community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) with ECOTONE.

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate-sensitive mammal.

PubMed

Waterhouse, Matthew D; Erb, Liesl P; Beever, Erik A; Russello, Michael A

2018-06-01

The ecological effects of climate change have been shown in most major taxonomic groups; however, the evolutionary consequences are less well-documented. Adaptation to new climatic conditions offers a potential long-term mechanism for species to maintain viability in rapidly changing environments, but mammalian examples remain scarce. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) has been impacted by recent climate-associated extirpations and range-wide reductions in population sizes, establishing it as a sentinel mammalian species for climate change. To investigate evidence for local adaptation and reconstruct patterns of genomic diversity and gene flow across rapidly changing environments, we used a space-for-time design and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to genotype American pikas along two steep elevational gradients at 30,966 SNPs and employed independent outlier detection methods that scanned for genotype-environment associations. We identified 338 outlier SNPs detected by two separate analyses and/or replicated in both transects, several of which were annotated to genes involved in metabolic function and oxygen transport. Additionally, we found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from high-elevation populations, along with reduced gene flow at outlier loci. If this trend continues, elevational range contractions in American pikas will likely be from local extirpation rather than upward movement of low-elevation individuals; this, in turn, could limit the potential for adaptation within this landscape. These findings are of particular relevance for future conservation and management of American pikas and other elevationally restricted, thermally sensitive species. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mitigation/adaptation and health: health policymaking in the global response to climate change and implications for other upstream determinants.

PubMed

Wiley, Lindsay F

2010-01-01

The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well. © 2010 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2017-08-16

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Lake, Iain R

2017-12-05

This review examined the likely impact of climate change upon food-borne disease in the UK using Campylobacter and Salmonella as example organisms. Campylobacter is an important food-borne disease and an increasing public health threat. There is a reasonable evidence base that the environment and weather play a role in its transmission to humans. However, uncertainty as to the precise mechanisms through which weather affects disease, make it difficult to assess the likely impact of climate change. There are strong positive associations between Salmonella cases and ambient temperature, and a clear understanding of the mechanisms behind this. However, because the incidence of Salmonella disease is declining in the UK, any climate change increases are likely to be small. For both Salmonella and Campylobacter the disease incidence is greatest in older adults and young children. There are many pathways through which climate change may affect food but only a few of these have been rigorously examined. This provides a high degree of uncertainty as to what the impacts of climate change will be. Food is highly controlled at the National and EU level. This provides the UK with resilience to climate change as well as potential to adapt to its consequences but it is unknown whether these are sufficient in the context of a changing climate.

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

PubMed

Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-15

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

Changing Climate Drives Lagging and Accelerating Glacier Responses and Accelerating Adjustments of the Hazard Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, Jeffrey

2013-04-01

It is virtually universally recognized among climate and cryospheric scientists that climate and greenhouse gas abundances are closely correlated. Disagreements mainly pertain to the fundamental triggers for large fluctuations in climate and greenhouse gases during the pre-industrial era, and exactly how coupling is achieved amongst the dynamic solid Earth, the Sun, orbital and rotational dynamics, greenhouse gas abundances, and climate. Also unsettled is the climate sensitivity defined as the absolute linkage between the magnitude of climate warming/cooling and greenhouse gas increase/decrease. Important questions concern lagging responses (either greenhouse gases lagging climate fluctuations, or vice versa) and the causes of the lags. In terms of glacier and ice sheet responses to climate change, there also exist several processes causing lagging responses to climate change inputs. The simplest parameterization giving a glacier's lagging response time, τ, is that given by Jóhanneson et al. (1989), modified slightly here as τ = b/h, where b is a measure of ablation rate and h is a measure of glacier thickness. The exact definitions of τ, b, and h are subject to some interpretive license, but for a back-of-the-envelope approximation, we may take b as the magnitude of the mean ablation rate over the whole ablation area, and h as the mean glacier thickness in the glacier ablation zone. τ remains a bit ambiguous but may be considered as an exponential time scale for a decreasing response of b to a climatic step change. For some climate changes, b and h can be taken as the values prior to the climate change, but for large climatic shifts, this parameterization must be iterated. The actual response of a glacier at any time is the sum of exponentially decreasing responses from past changes. (Several aspects of glacier dynamics cause various glacier responses to differ from this idealized glacier-response theory.) Some important details relating to the retreat (or advances) of glaciers due to historic and future anthropogenic and longer term climate change relate to a changing glacier hazard regime. Climate change is connected to changes in the geographic distribution and magnitudes of potentially hazardous glacier lakes, large rock and ice avalanches, ice-dammed rivers, and surges. I shall consider these changes in hazard environment in relation to response-time theory and dynamical divergences from idealized response-time theory. Case histories of certain hazard-prone regions, including developments in fast-response-type glaciers and slow-response glaciers and ice sheets will also be discussed. In short, there will be a strong tendency of the hazard regimes of glacierized regions to shift far more rapidly in the 21st century than they did in the 20th century. The magnitude of the shifts will be more dramatic than any simple linear scaling to climate warming would suggest; this is largely because, due to lagging responses, glaciers are still trying to catch up to a new equilibrium for 20th century climate, while climate change remains a moving target that will drive accelerating glacier responses (including responses in hazard environments) in most glacierized regions.

Sámi youth health, the role of climate change, and unique health-seeking behaviour.

PubMed

Kowalczewski, Emilie; Klein, Joern

2018-12-01

The goal of this cross-sectional qualitative study was to assess the impact of climate change on Sámi youth health, health care access, and health-seeking behaviour. Indigenous research methodology served as the basis of the investigation which utilised focus groups of youths and one-on-one interviews of adult community leaders using a semi-structured, open-ended questions. The results of the focus groups and interviews were then analysed to identify trends. We found that Sámi youth mostly associate the implications of climate change to their culture andcultural practices rather than the historical influence the environment had on Sámi health. They also take part in unique health-seeking behaviour by utilising both traditional and Western medicine simultaneously but without interaction due to social and structural factors. Our findings suggest that the health of Sámi teens is not tied to the environment directly, but through cultural activities.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality: Two global challenges.

PubMed

Erickson, Larry E

2017-07-01

There are many good reasons to promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other combustion emissions. The air quality in many urban environments is causing many premature deaths because of asthma, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and dementia associated with combustion emissions. The global social cost of air pollution is at least $3 trillion/year; particulates, nitrogen oxides and ozone associated with combustion emissions are very costly pollutants. Better air quality in urban environments is one of the reasons for countries to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are many potential benefits associated with limiting climate change. In the recent past, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and the number of weather and climate disasters with costs over $1 billion has been increasing. The average global temperature set new record highs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the transition to electric vehicles and electricity generation using renewable energy must take place in accord with the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This work reviews progress and identifies some of the health benefits associated with reducing combustion emissions. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 982-988, 2017.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality: Two global challenges

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

There are many good reasons to promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other combustion emissions. The air quality in many urban environments is causing many premature deaths because of asthma, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and dementia associated with combustion emissions. The global social cost of air pollution is at least $3 trillion/year; particulates, nitrogen oxides and ozone associated with combustion emissions are very costly pollutants. Better air quality in urban environments is one of the reasons for countries to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are many potential benefits associated with limiting climate change. In the recent past, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and the number of weather and climate disasters with costs over $1 billion has been increasing. The average global temperature set new record highs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the transition to electric vehicles and electricity generation using renewable energy must take place in accord with the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This work reviews progress and identifies some of the health benefits associated with reducing combustion emissions. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 982–988, 2017 PMID:29238442

Detecting Changes of Thermal Environment over the Bohai Coastal Region by Spectral Change Vector Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Jia, G.

2009-12-01

Change vector analysis (CVA) is an effective approach for detecting and characterizing land-cover change by comparing pairs of multi-spectral and multi-temporal datasets over certain area derived from various satellite platforms. NDVI is considered as an effective detector for biophysical changes due to its sensitivity to red and near infrared signals, while land surface temperature (LST) is considered as a valuable indicator for changes of ground thermal conditions. Here we try to apply CVA over satellite derived LST datasets to detect changes of land surface thermal properties parallel to climate change and anthropogenic influence in a city cluster since 2001. In this study, monthly land surface temperature datasets from 2001-2008 derived from MODIS collection 5 were used to examine change pattern of thermal environment over the Bohai coastal region by using spectral change vector analysis. The results from principle component analysis (PCA) for LST show that the PC 1-3 contain over 80% information on monthly variations and these PCA components represent the main processes of land thermal environment change over the study area. Time series of CVA magnitude combined with land cover information show that greatest change occurred in urban and heavily populated area, featured with expansion of urban heat island, while moderate change appeared in grassland area in the north. However few changes were observed over large plain area and forest area. Strong signals also are related to economy level and especially the events of surface cover change, such as emergence of railway and port. Two main processes were also noticed about the changes of thermal environment. First, weak signal was detected in mostly natural area influenced by interannual climate change in temperate broadleaf forest area. Second, land surface temperature changes were controlled by human activities as 1) moderate change of LST happened in grassland influenced by grazing and 2) urban heat island was intensifier in major cities, such as Beijing and Tianjin. Further, the continual drier climate combined with human actions over past fifties years have intensified land thermal pattern change and the continuation will be an important aspects to understand land surface processes and local climate change. Land surface temperature trends from 2000-2008 over the Bohai coastal region

Climatic controls on Pennsylvanian sequences, United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cecil, C.B.; Dulong, F.T.; Edgar, N.T.

1996-08-01

Temporal and spatial paleoclimate changes were primary controls on changes in sediment supply, both siliciclastic and chemical, in Pennsylvanian deposystems of the United States. Tectonic and eustatic processes, as well as climatically induced changes in sediment supply, controlled accommodation space and sequence stratigraphy within these deposystems. Interbasinal correlations of lithologies sensitive to climate, such as coeval paleosols, provide continental-scale records of climatic and eustatic conditions. Pennsylvanian bio- and lithostratigraphy are indicative of climate change at time scales that range from long-term (tens of millions of years) as Pangea formed and North America moved northward through the paleoequator, to intermediate-term hundredmore » thousand year cycles controlled by orbital forcing, to very short-term events perhaps analogous to El Nino. Because of proximity to the humid tropics, the long-term climate of eastern basins of the United States was generally wetter than western basins. In the east, pluvial parts of climate cycles occur during low-stand events and are recorded by intense chemical weathering, high terrestrial organic productivity, restricted erosion, and siliciclastic sediment starvation. These conditions resulted in highly leached mineral paleosols (Ultisols) and coal beds (Histosols) of interbasinal extent. Drier parts of climate cycles in the east occurred during highstands of sea level when erosion and siliciclastic transport were maximum. In the western basins pluvial periods are generally indicated by shifts from eolian to fluvial and lacustrine sedimentary regimes in continental environments and from evaporate and carbonate to siliciclastic deposition, including black shale petroleum source rocks, in marine environments. Tectonics controlled basin development and glacial eustasy controlled sea level cycles. Climate, however, was the primary control on sediment supply and lithostratigraphy.« less

Hygrothermal environment may cause influenza pandemics through immune suppression.

PubMed

Wu, Xian-Lin; Luo, Yu-Hong; Chen, Jia; Yu, Bin; Liu, Kang-Li; He, Jin-Xiong; Lu, Su-Hong; Li, Jie-Xing; Wu, Sha; Jiang, Zhen-You; Chen, Xiao-Yin

2015-01-01

Over the past few decades, climate warming has caused profound changes in our living environment, and human diseases, including infectious diseases, have also been influenced by these changes. However, it remains unclear if a warm-wet climate can influence the infectivity of influenza and result in influenza pandemics. This study focused on observations of how the hydrothermal environment influences the infectivity of the influenza virus and the resulting immunoreactions of the infected mice. We used a manual climatic box to establish the following 3 environments with different temperatures and humidity: normal environment (T: 24 ± 1°C, RH: 50% ± 4%), wet environment (T: 24 ± 1 °C, RH: 95% ± 4%) and warm-wet environment (T: 33 ± 1 °C, RH: 95% ± 4%), and the mice were fed and maintained in these 3 different environments. After 14 days, half of the mice were infected with H1N1 (A/FM1/1/47, a lung adapted strain of the flu virus specific for the mouse lung) virus for 4 d After establishing the animal model, we observed the microstructure of the lung tissue, the Th1/Th2 T cell subsets, the Th17/Treg balance, the expression of cytokines in the peripheral blood serum and the expression of the immune recognition RLH signal pathway. The results showed that mice in different environments have different reaction. Results showed that after infection, the proportion of Th1/Th2 and Th17/Treg cells in the spleen was significantly increased, and these proportions were increased the most in the infected group kept in wet-hot conditions. After infection, the mRNA levels and protein expression of the RLH (RIG-1-like helicases) signal pathway components were up-regulated while the uninfected animals in the 3 diverse environments showed no significant change. The infected mice kept in the wet and warm-wet environments showed a slight elevation in the expression of RLH pathway components compared to infected mice maintained in the normal environment. Our study suggested that the warm-wet environment may have interfered with the immune response and balance. The mice kept in the warm-wet environment displayed immune tolerance when they were exposed to the influenza virus, and the body was not able to effectively clear the virus, leading to a persistent infection. A warm-wet climate may thus be a factor that contributes to influenza pandemics, people should focus on the warm-wet climate coming and advance prepare to vaccine manufacture.

Limnological and climatic environments at Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon during the past 45 000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradbury, J.P.; Colman, Steven M.; Dean, W.E.

2004-01-01

Upper Klamath Lake, in south-central Oregon, contains long sediment records with well-preserved diatoms and lithological variations that reflect climate-induced limnological changes. These sediment archives complement and extend high resolution terrestrial records along a north-south transect that includes areas influenced by the Aleutian Low and Subtropical High, which control both marine and continental climates in the western United States. The longest and oldest core collected in this study came from the southwest margin of the lake at Caledonia Marsh, and was dated by radiocarbon and tephrochronology to an age of about 45 ka. Paleolimnological interpretations of this core, based upon geochemical and diatom analyses, have been augmented by data from a short core collected from open water environments at nearby Howards Bay and from a 9-m core extending to 15 ka raised from the center of the northwestern part of Upper Klamath Lake. Pre- and full-glacial intervals of the Caledonia Marsh core are characterized and dominated by lithic detrital material. Planktic diatom taxa characteristic of cold-water habitats (Aulacoseira subarctica and A. islandica) alternate with warm-water planktic diatoms (A. ambigua) between 45 and 23 ka, documenting climate changes at millennial scales during oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 3. The full-glacial interval contains mostly cold-water planktic, benthic, and reworked Pliocene lacustrine diatoms (from the surrounding Yonna Formation) that document shallow water conditions in a cold, windy environment. After 15 ka, diatom productivity increased. Organic carbon and biogenic silica became significant sediment components and diatoms that live in the lake today, indicative of warm, eutrophic water, became prominent. Lake levels fell during the mid-Holocene and marsh environments extended over the core site. This interval is characterized by high levels of organic carbon from emergent aquatic vegetation (Scirpus) and by the Mazama ash (7.55 ka), generated by the eruption that created nearby Crater Lake. For a brief time the ash increased the salinity of Upper Klamath Lake. High concentrations of molybdenum, arsenic, and vanadium indicate that Caledonia Marsh was anoxic from about 7 to 5 ka. After the mid-Holocene, shallow, but open-water environments returned to the core site. The sediments became dominated (>80%) by biogenic silica. The open-water cores show analogous but less extreme limnological and climatic changes more typical of mid-lake environments. Millennial-scale lake and climate changes during OIS 3 at Upper Klamath Lake contrast with a similar record of variation at Owens Lake, about 750 km south. When Upper Klamath Lake experienced cold-climate episodes during OIS 3, Owens Lake had warm but wet episodes; the reverse occurred during warmer intervals at Upper Klamath Lake. Such climatic alternations apparently reflect the variable position and strength of the Aleutian Low during the mid-Wisconsin.

United States news media and climate change in the era of US President Trump.

PubMed

Park, David J

2018-03-01

The Donald J Trump administration's strategy to disengage and downplay the Paris Climate Agreement will likely result in a slight decrease in the already low levels of US news media global warming coverage. This is because significant limitations with the news media's ability to adequately cover climate change predated the administration. First, studies indicate that advertising interests and editors have always challenged journalists' abilities to adequately report on climate change issues. Instead of climate change stories, editors often prefer more sensational topics that garner higher ratings and approval with advertisers. Second, the journalistic norm of balance and the role of sourcing give climate skeptics exceptional media exposure, which creates a "false balance" or equivalency between skeptics and scientists. Third, the massive power and influence of the fossil fuel industry's public relations arm has also had a tremendous impact on public (mis)understanding of climate change. Fourth, a trend toward declining climate change coverage and "climate silence" in US media is developing. Media corporations have substantially eliminated the number of environmental journalists that cover climate change. The overall effect of these limitations distorts public understanding of climate change and delays potential government action. Moving away from a predominantly commercial media system to one with a substantial noncommercial component can improve US journalism, whereas using advertising to increase rates for environmentally unsound products and services may also help mitigate global warming. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:202-204. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Orbiting Carbon Observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Charles E.

2005-01-01

Human impact on the environment has produced measurable changes in the geological record since the late 1700s. Anthropogenic emissions of CO2 today may cause the global climate to depart for its natural behavior for many millenia. CO2 is the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory goals are to help collect measurements of atmospheric CO2, answering questions such as why the atmospheric CO2 buildup varies annually, the roles of the oceans and land ecosystems in absorbing CO2, the roles of North American and Eurasian sinks and how these carbon sinks respond to climate change. The present carbon cycle, CO2 variability, and climate uncertainties due atmospheric CO2 uncertainties are highlighted in this presentation.

The Vulnerability of Earth Systems to Human-Induced Global Change and Strategies for Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, R. T.

2002-12-01

Since the IGY, there has been growing evidence that climate is changing in response to human activities. The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is inevitable. Indeed, during the last few years, many parts of the world have suffered major heat waves, floods, droughts, fires and extreme weather events leading to significant economic losses and loss of life. While individual events cannot be directly linked to human-induced climate change, the frequency and magnitude of these types of events are predicted to increase in a warmer world. The question is not whether climate will change, but rather how much (magnitude), how fast (the rate of change) and where (regional patterns). It is also clear that climate change and other human-induced modifications to the environment will, in many parts of the world, adversely affect socio-economic sectors, including water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and human settlements, ecological systems (particularly forests and coral reefs), and human health (particularly diseases spread by insects), with developing countries being the most vulnerable. Environmental degradation of all types (i.e., climate change, loss of biodiversity, land degradation, air and water quality) all undermine the challenge of poverty alleviation and sustainable economic growth. One of the major challenges facing humankind is to provide an equitable standard of living for this and future generations: adequate food, water and energy, safe shelter and a healthy environment (e.g., clean air and water). Unfortunately, human-induced climate change, as well as other global environmental issues such as land degradation, loss of biological diversity and stratospheric ozone depletion, threatens our ability to meet these basic human needs. The good news is, however, that the majority of experts believe that significant reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions are technically feasible due to an extensive array of technologies and policy measures in the energy supply, energy demand and agricultural and forestry sectors. In addition, the projected adverse effects of climate change on socio-economic and ecological systems can, to some degree, be reduced through proactive adaptation measures.

Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: A case of Jordan.

PubMed

Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto; Al Khatib, Amal N; Allouzi, Siham F

2018-01-01

Different aspects of climate change, such as increased temperature, changed rainfall and higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration, all have different effects on crop yields. Process-based crop models are the most widely used tools for estimating future crop yield responses to climate change. We applied APSIM crop simulation model in a dry Mediterranean climate with Jordan as sentinel site to assess impact of climate change on wheat production at decadal level considering two climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact of climatic variables alone was negative on grain yield but this adverse effect was negated when elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were also considered in the simulations. Crop cycle of wheat was reduced by a fortnight for RCP4.5 scenario and by a month for RCP8.5 scenario at the approach of end of the century. On an average, a grain yield increase of 5 to 11% in near future i.e., 2010s-2030s decades, 12 to 16% in mid future i.e., 2040s-2060s decades and 9 to 16% in end of century period can be expected for moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and 6 to 15% in near future, 13 to 19% in mid future and 7 to 20% increase in end of century period for a drastic climate change scenario (RCP8.5) based on different soils. Positive impact of elevated CO 2 is more pronounced in soils with lower water holding capacity with moderate increase in temperatures. Elevated CO 2 had greater positive effect on transpiration use efficiency (TUE) than negative effect of elevated mean temperatures. The change in TUE was in near perfect direct relationship with elevated CO 2 levels (R 2 >0.99) and every 100-ppm atmospheric CO 2 increase resulted in TUE increase by 2kgha -1 mm -1 . Thereby, in this environment yield gains are expected in future and farmers can benefit from growing wheat. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Internet of Things inspired wireless sensor networks to monitor cryospheric processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, J. K.; Martinez, K.

2017-12-01

In order to understand how modern climate change is effecting cryospheric environments we need to monitor these remote environments. There are few measurements of current day conditions because of the logistical difficulties. In particular, the whole year needs to be monitored, as well as accessing challenging environments (such as beneath the glacier). We demonstrate from Norway, Iceland and Scotland how embedded sensors along with geophysical (GPR)and surveying data (dGPS, TLS, UAV and time-lapse photography) can be used to investigate recent dramatic environmental changes associated with climate change. This includes: i) a comparison between stable and unstable glacier retreat (the subglacial hydrology, glacier motion, englacial structure and till behaviour of a rapid subaqueous glacier break-up compared with slower terrestrial retreat); and iii) an investigation of future ground stability and greenhouse gas release associated with periglacial conditions.

How the biodiversity sciences may aid biological tools and ecological engineering to assess the impact of climatic changes.

PubMed

Morand, S; Guégan, J-F

2008-08-01

This paper addresses how climate changes interact with other global changes caused by humans (habitat fragmentation, changes in land use, bioinvasions) to affect biodiversity. Changes in biodiversity at all levels (genetic, population and community) affect the functioning of ecosystems, in particular host-pathogen interactions, with major consequences in health ecology (emergence and re-emergence; the evolution of virulence and resistance). In this paper, the authors demonstrate that the biodiversity sciences, epidemiological theory and evolutionary ecology are indispensable in assessing the impact of climate changes, and also for modelling the evolution of host-pathogen interactions in a changing environment. The next step is to apply health ecology to the science of ecological engineering.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish

PubMed Central

Crozier, Lisa G; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-01-01

The physical and ecological ‘fingerprints’ of anthropogenic climate change over the past century are now well documented in many environments and taxa. We reviewed the evidence for phenotypic responses to recent climate change in fish. Changes in the timing of migration and reproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival and fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature. Although these traits can evolve rapidly, only two studies attributed phenotypic changes formally to evolutionary mechanisms. The correlation-based methods most frequently employed point largely to ‘fine-grained’ population responses to environmental variability (i.e. rapid phenotypic changes relative to generation time), consistent with plastic mechanisms. Ultimately, many species will likely adapt to long-term warming trends overlaid on natural climate oscillations. Considering the strong plasticity in all traits studied, we recommend development and expanded use of methods capable of detecting evolutionary change, such as the long term study of selection coefficients and temporal shifts in reaction norms, and increased attention to forecasting adaptive change in response to the synergistic interactions of the multiple selection pressures likely to be associated with climate change. PMID:24454549

Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish.

PubMed

Crozier, Lisa G; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-01-01

The physical and ecological 'fingerprints' of anthropogenic climate change over the past century are now well documented in many environments and taxa. We reviewed the evidence for phenotypic responses to recent climate change in fish. Changes in the timing of migration and reproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival and fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature. Although these traits can evolve rapidly, only two studies attributed phenotypic changes formally to evolutionary mechanisms. The correlation-based methods most frequently employed point largely to 'fine-grained' population responses to environmental variability (i.e. rapid phenotypic changes relative to generation time), consistent with plastic mechanisms. Ultimately, many species will likely adapt to long-term warming trends overlaid on natural climate oscillations. Considering the strong plasticity in all traits studied, we recommend development and expanded use of methods capable of detecting evolutionary change, such as the long term study of selection coefficients and temporal shifts in reaction norms, and increased attention to forecasting adaptive change in response to the synergistic interactions of the multiple selection pressures likely to be associated with climate change.

Climate conditions, and changes, affect microalgae communities… should we worry?

PubMed

Gimenez Papiol, Gemma

2018-03-01

Microalgae play a pivotal role in the regulation of Earth's climate and its cycles, but are also affected by climate change, mainly by changes in temperature, light, ocean acidification, water stratification, and precipitation-induced nutrient inputs. The changes and impacts on microalgae communities are difficult to study, predict, and manage, but there is no doubt that there will be changes. These changes will have impacts beyond microalgae communities, and many of them will be negative. Some actions are currently ongoing for the mitigation of some of the negative impacts, such as harmful algal blooms and water quality, but global efforts for reducing CO 2 emissions, temperature rises, and ocean acidification are paramount for reducing the impact of climate change on microalgae communities, and eventually, on human well-being. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:181-184. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

CHANGING CLIMATE AND PHOTOBIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES IN AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Global biogeochemistry plays a critical role in controlling life processes, climate and their interactions, including effects on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent evidence indicates that the light-driven part of aquatic biogeochemical cycles is being altered by in...

Adaptation to climate change--exploring the potential of locally adapted breeds.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Irene

2013-06-01

The livestock sector and agriculture as a whole face unprecedented challenges to increase production while improving the environment. On the basis of a literature review, the paper first discusses challenges related to climate change, food security and other drivers of change in livestock production. On the basis of a recent discourse in ecology, a framework for assessing livestock species' and breeds' vulnerability to climate change is presented. The second part of the paper draws on an analysis of data on breed qualities obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization's Domestic Animal Diversity Information System (DAD-IS) to explore the range of adaptation traits present in today's breed diversity. The analysis produced a first mapping of a range of ascribed adaptation traits of national breed populations. It allowed to explore what National Coordinators understand by 'locally adapted' and other terms that describe general adaptation, to better understand the habitat, fodder and temperature range of each species and to shed light on the environments in which targeted search for adaptation traits could focus.

Climate change accelerates growth of urban trees in metropolises worldwide.

PubMed

Pretzsch, Hans; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Dahlhausen, Jens; Schütze, Gerhard; Perkins, Diana; Rötzer, Thomas; Caldentey, Juan; Koike, Takayoshi; Con, Tran van; Chavanne, Aurélia; Toit, Ben du; Foster, Keith; Lefer, Barry

2017-11-13

Despite the importance of urban trees, their growth reaction to climate change and to the urban heat island effect has not yet been investigated with an international scope. While we are well informed about forest growth under recent conditions, it is unclear if this knowledge can be simply transferred to urban environments. Based on tree ring analyses in ten metropolises worldwide, we show that, in general, urban trees have undergone accelerated growth since the 1960s. In addition, urban trees tend to grow more quickly than their counterparts in the rural surroundings. However, our analysis shows that climate change seems to enhance the growth of rural trees more than that of urban trees. The benefits of growing in an urban environment seem to outweigh known negative effects, however, accelerated growth may also mean more rapid ageing and shortened lifetime. Thus, city planners should adapt to the changed dynamics in order to secure the ecosystem services provided by urban trees.

Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

PubMed

Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

2008-08-01

There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.

PubMed

Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D

2015-11-01

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Preventing disasters: public health vulnerability reduction as a sustainable adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Keim, Mark E

2011-06-01

Global warming could increase the number and severity of extreme weather events. These events are often known to result in public health disasters, but we can lessen the effects of these disasters. By addressing the factors that cause changes in climate, we can mitigate the effects of climate change. By addressing the factors that make society vulnerable to the effects of climate, we can adapt to climate change. To adapt to climate change, a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction has been proposed. By reducing human vulnerability to disasters, we can lessen--and at times even prevent--their impact. Human vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that comprises social, economic, health, and cultural factors. Because public health is uniquely placed at the community level, it has the opportunity to lessen human vulnerability to climate-related disasters. At the national and international level, a supportive policy environment can enable local adaptation to disaster events. The purpose of this article is to introduce the basic concept of disaster risk reduction so that it can be applied to preventing and mitigating the negative effects of climate change and to examine the role of community-focused public health as a means for lessening human vulnerability and, as a result, the overall risk of climate-related disasters.

Modelling the effects of land cover and climate change on soil water partitioning in a boreal headwater catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hailong; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Soulsby, Chris

2018-03-01

Climate and land cover are two major factors affecting the water fluxes and balance across spatiotemporal scales. These two factors and their impacts on hydrology are often interlinked. The quantification and differentiation of such impacts is important for developing sustainable land and water management strategies. Here, we calibrated the well-known Hydrus-1D model in a data-rich boreal headwater catchment in Scotland to assess the role of two dominant vegetation types (shrubs vs. trees) in regulating the soil water partitioning and balance. We also applied previously established climate projections for the area and replaced shrubs with trees to imitate current land use change proposals in the region, so as to quantify the potential impacts of climate and land cover changes on soil hydrology. Under tree cover, evapotranspiration and deep percolation to recharge groundwater was about 44% and 57% of annual precipitation, whilst they were about 10% lower and 9% higher respectively under shrub cover in this humid, low energy environment. Meanwhile, tree canopies intercepted 39% of annual precipitation in comparison to 23% by shrubs. Soils with shrub cover stored more water than tree cover. Land cover change was shown to have stronger impacts than projected climate change. With a complete replacement of shrubs with trees under future climate projections at this site, evapotranspiration is expected to increase by ∼39% while percolation to decrease by 21% relative to the current level, more pronounced than the modest changes in the two components (<8%) with climate change only. The impacts would be particularly marked in warm seasons, which may result in water stress experienced by the vegetation. The findings provide an important evidence base for adaptive management strategies of future changes in low-energy humid environments, where vegetation growth is usually restricted by radiative energy and not water availability while few studies that quantify soil water partitioning exist.

Thermal physiology of native cool-climate, and non-native warm-climate Pumpkinseed sunfish raised in a common environment.

PubMed

Rooke, Anna C; Burness, Gary; Fox, Michael G

2017-02-01

Contemporary evolution of thermal physiology has the potential to help limit the physiological stress associated with rapidly changing thermal environments; however it is unclear if wild populations can respond quickly enough for such changes to be effective. We used native Canadian Pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus) sunfish, and non-native Pumpkinseed introduced into the milder climate of Spain ~100 years ago, to assess genetic differences in thermal physiology in response to the warmer non-native climate. We compared temperature performance reaction norms of two Canadian and two Spanish Pumpkinseed populations born and raised within a common environment. We found that Canadian Pumpkinseed had higher routine metabolic rates when measured at seasonally high temperatures (15°C in winter, 30°C in summer), and that Spanish Pumpkinseed had higher critical thermal maxima when acclimated to 30°C in the summer. Growth rates were not significantly different among populations, however Canadian Pumpkinseed tended to have faster growth at the warmest temperatures measured (32°C). The observed differences in physiology among Canadian and Spanish populations at the warmest acclimation temperatures are consistent with the introduced populations being better suited to the warmer non-native climate than native populations. The observed differences could be the result of either founder effects, genetic drift, and/or contemporary adaptive evolution in the warmer non-native climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of volcanic gases on climate, the environment, and people

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, Kenneth A.; Doukas, Michael P.; Kessler, Richard; Gerlach, Terrence M.

1997-01-01

Gases from volcanoes give rise to numerous impacts on climate, the environment, and people. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are inventorying gas emissions at many of the almost 70 active volcanoes in the United States. This effort helps build a better understanding of the dynamic processes at work on the Earth's surface and is contributing important new information on how volcanic emissions affect global change.

Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

PubMed

Stern, Nicholas

2015-08-07

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

Economic development, climate and values: making policy

PubMed Central

Stern, Nicholas

2015-01-01

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. PMID:26203007

Climate Change in the US: Potential Consequences for Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2001-01-01

The U.S. National Assessment identified five major areas of consequences of climate change in the United States: temperature-related illnesses and deaths, health effects related to extreme weather events, air pollution-related health effects, water- and food-borne diseases, and insect-, tick-, and rodent-borne diseases. The U.S. National Assessment final conclusions about these potential health effects will be described. In addition, a summary of some of the new tools for studying human health aspects of climate change as well as environment-health linkages through remotely sensed data and observations will be provided.

Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C. C.

2014-02-01

Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred.

Causes of Climate and Environmental Changes: The Need for Environmental-Friendly Education Policy in Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nwankwoala, H. N. L.

2015-01-01

Man cannot naturally be detached from his environment. From time to time, changes in climate and environmental conditions occur as a result of natural and human factors. Obviously, the natural factors are almost beyond human control. But, the human factors are to a very large extent under human control. Thus, this paper tried to discover natural…

Climate Change Draws World Attention: The 2007 Nobel Peace Award Goes to Gore and IPCC

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bisland, Beverly Milner; Ahmad, Iftikhar

2008-01-01

In the fall of 2007, the Nobel Committee awarded their Peace Prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Program) and to former Vice-President Al Gore, Jr. The committee praised the United Nations panel for creating…

Why are coast redwood and giant sequoia not where they are not?

Treesearch

W.J. Libby

2017-01-01

Models predicting future climates and other kinds of information are being developed to anticipate where these two species may fail, where they may continue to thrive, and where they may colonize, given changes in climate and other elements of the environment. Important elements of such predictions, among others, are: photoperiod; site qualities; changes in levels and...

Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment: The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA

PubMed Central

Robinson, Stacie J.; Neitzel, David F.; Moen, Ronald A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Hamilton, Karin E.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Mulla, David J.; Munderloh, Ulrike G.; Redig, Patrick T.; Smith, Kirk E.; Turner, Clarence L.; Umber, Jamie K.; Pelican, Katharine M.

2015-01-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease. PMID:25281302

Modelling the effects of climate and land-use change on the hydrochemistry and ecology of the River Wye (Wales).

PubMed

Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G; Gutiérrez-Cánovas, Cayetano; Ledesma, José L J; Ormerod, Steve J; Couture, Raoul-Marie

2018-06-15

Interactions between climate change and land use change might have substantial effects on aquatic ecosystems, but are still poorly understood. Using the Welsh River Wye as a case study, we linked models of water quality (Integrated Catchment - INCA) and climate (GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and IPSL - Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) under greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to drive a bespoke ecosystem model that simulated the responses of aquatic organisms. The potential effects of economic and social development were also investigated using scenarios from the EU MARS project (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). Longitudinal position along the river mediated response to increasing anthropogenic pressures. Upland locations appeared particularly sensitive to nutrient enrichment or potential re-acidification compared to lowland environments which are already eutrophic. These results can guide attempts to mitigate future impacts and reiterate the need for sensitive land management in upland, temperate environments which are likely to become increasingly important to water supply and biodiversity conservation as the effects of climate change intensify. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on acid mine drainage generation and contaminant transport in water ecosystems of semi-arid and arid mining areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anawar, Hossain Md.

Disposal of untreated and treated mining wastes and tailings exerts a significant threat and hazard for environmental contamination including groundwater, surface water, wetlands, land, food chain and animals. In order to facilitate remediation techniques, it is important to understand the oxidation of sulfidic minerals, and the hydrolysis of the oxidation products that result in production of acid mine drainage (AMD), toxic metals, low pH, SO42- and Fe. This review has summarized the impacts of climate change on geochemical reactions, AMD generation, and water quality in semi-arid/arid mining environments. Besides this, the study included the effects of hydrological, seasonal and climate change on composition of AMD, contaminant transport in watersheds and restoration of mining sites. Different models have different types of limitations and benefits that control their adaptability and suitability of application in various mining environments. This review has made a comparative discussion of a few most potential and widely used reactive transport models that can be applied to simulate the effect of climate change on sulfide oxidation and AMD production from mining waste, and contaminant transport in surface and groundwater systems.

Disease risk in a dynamic environment: the spread of tick-borne pathogens in Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Robinson, Stacie J; Neitzel, David F; Moen, Ronald A; Craft, Meggan E; Hamilton, Karin E; Johnson, Lucinda B; Mulla, David J; Munderloh, Ulrike G; Redig, Patrick T; Smith, Kirk E; Turner, Clarence L; Umber, Jamie K; Pelican, Katharine M

2015-03-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease.

Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Barber, Iain; Deeming, Denis C; Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Hartley, Ian R

2017-11-01

Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest-building in animals directly, for example via sea-level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest-building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long-term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short-term adaptations, the ability of nest-building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest-building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest-building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest-building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short- and long-term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the most urgent attention for further research. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

PubMed

Patz, J A; Olson, S H

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

PubMed

Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2012-12-01

Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur with different extension and magnitude in the case study area. Particularly, qualitative and quantitative impacts on groundwater will occur with more severe consequences in the wettest and in the driest scenario (respectively). Moreover, such impacts will likely have little direct effects on related ecosystems - croplands, forests and natural environments - lying along the spring area (about 12% of croplands and 2% of natural environments at risk) while more severe consequences will indirectly occur on natural and anthropic systems through the reduction in quality and quantity of water availability for agricultural and other uses (about 80% of agricultural areas and 27% of groundwater bodies at risk). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The I.A.G./A.I.G. SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments) Program (2005 - 2017): Key activities and outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beylich, Achim A.

2017-04-01

Amplified climate change and ecological sensitivity of high-latitude and high-altitude cold climate environments has been highlighted as a key global environmental issue. Projected climate change in largely undisturbed cold regions is expected to alter melt-season duration and intensity, along with the number of extreme rainfall events, total annual precipitation and the balance between snowfall and rainfall. Similarly, changes to the thermal balance are expected to reduce the extent of permafrost and seasonal ground frost and increase active-layer depths. These combined effects will undoubtedly change Earth surface environments in cold regions and will alter the fluxes of sediments, solutes and nutrients. However, the absence of quantitative data and coordinated analysis to understand the sensitivity of the Earth surface environment are acute in cold regions. Contemporary cold climate environments generally provide the opportunity to identify solute and sedimentary systems where anthropogenic impacts are still less important than the effects of climate change. Accordingly, it is still possible to develop a library of baseline fluvial yields and sedimentary budgets before the natural environment is completely transformed. The SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments) Program, building on the European Science Foundation (ESF) Network SEDIFLUX (Sedimentary Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Cold Environments, since 2004) was formed in 2005 as a new Program (Working Group) of the International Association of Geomorphologists (I.A.G./A.I.G.) to address this still existing key knowledge gap. SEDIBUD (2005-2017) has currently about 400 members worldwide and the Steering Committee of this international program is composed of eleven scientists from ten different countries. The central research question of this global program is to: Assess and model the contemporary sedimentary fluxes in cold climates, with emphasis on both particulate and dissolved components. Research carried out at 56 defined SEDIBUD key test sites (selected catchment systems) varies by scientific program, logistics and available resources, but typically represent interdisciplinary collaborations of geomorphologists, hydrologists, ecologists, permafrost scientists and glaciologists with different levels of detail. SEDIBUD has developed a key set of primary research data requirements intended to incorporate results from these varied projects and allow quantitative analysis across the program. Defined SEDIBUD key test sites provide field data on annual climatic conditions, total discharge and particulate and dissolved fluxes and yields as well as information on other relevant denudational Earth surface processes. A number of selected key test sites are providing high-resolution data on climatic conditions, runoff and solute and sedimentary fluxes and yields, which - in addition to the annual data - contribute to the SEDIBUD metadata database. To support these coordinated efforts, the SEDIFLUX manual and a set of framework papers and book chapters have been produced to establish the integrative approach and common methods and data standards. Comparable field-datasets from different SEDIBUD key test sites are analyzed and integrated to address key research questions of the SEDIBUD program as defined in the SEDIBUD working group objective. A key SEDIBUD synthesis book was published in 2016 by the group and a synthesis key paper is currently in preparation. Detailed information on all SEDIBUD activities, outcomes and published products is found at http://www.geomorph.org/sedibud-working-group/.

Atmospheric, climatic and environmental research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broecker, Wallace S.; Gornitz, Vivien M.

1992-01-01

Work performed on the three tasks during the report period is summarized. The climate and atmospheric modeling studies included work on climate model development and applications, paleoclimate studies, climate change applications, and SAGE II. Climate applications of Earth and planetary observations included studies on cloud climatology and planetary studies. Studies on the chemistry of the Earth and the environment are briefly described. Publications based on the above research are listed; two of these papers are included in the appendices.

Climate Change Science, Impacts, Solutions - A Senior Science Course for Post-Secondary Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, J. M.; Little, L. J.; Barnes, C. C.; Mirmasoudi, S.; Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Reiger, C.; Rodriguez Bueno, R. A.

2015-12-01

The role of humanity in warming the global climate is well defined. The research community has predicted and documented many of the early impacts of climate change. The research literature has extensive assessments of future impacts on environment, cities, agriculture, human health, infrastructure, social and political changes, and the risks of military conflict. Society is facing massive infrastructure redevelopment, protection and possible abandonment due to increasing weather extremes. We have reached the point where science consensus is obvious and the population over much of the developed and developing world understands the urgency - humanity is changing the climate. The challenge is helping people help themselves. People understand there are consequences - they want to know how to minimize those consequences, and how to adapt to minimize the impacts. There is a dire need for a senior level course that addresses the key issues across disciplines. This course should cover a range of topics across many disciplinary boundaries, including: an introduction to the science, politics, health and well-being challenges of climate change; likely changes to personal and community lifestyles; consumption of energy and other resources. Population migration due to climate change impacts is a critical topic. Most important, the course must address the solutions to climate change. The population is demanding the power to address this massive challenge. This course will provide a multimedia curriculum on the impacts and solutions to our climate change dilemma.

Kanaka Maoli and Kamáāina Seascapes - Knowing Our Ocean Through Times of Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puniwai, N.

2017-12-01

In Hawaíi our oceans define us, we come from the ocean. Our oceans change, and we change with them, as we always have. By learning from people who are dependent on their environment, we learn how to observe and how to adapt. Through the lens of climate change, we interviewed respected ocean observers and surfers to learn about changes they have witnessed over time and the spatial scales and ocean conditions important to them. We looked at our ancient and historical texts to see what processes they recorded and the language they used to ascribe their observations, interactions and relationships to these places. Yet, we also integrate what our mechanical data sensors have recorded over recent time. By expanding our time scales of reference, knowledge sources, and collaborators, these methods teach us how our ancestors adapted and how climate change may impact our subsistence, recreation, and interactions with the environment. Managing complex seascapes requires the integration of multiple ways of knowing; strengthening our understanding of seascapes and their resiliency in this changing environment.

Technology-Driven and Innovative Training for Sustainable Agriculture in The Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wishart, D. N.

2015-12-01

Innovative training in 'Sustainable Agriculture' for an increasingly STEM-dependent agricultural sector will require a combination of approaches and technologies for global agricultural production to increase while offsetting climate change. Climate change impacts the water resources of nations as normal global weather patterns are altered during El Nino events. Agricultural curricula must incorporate awareness of 'climate change' in order to find novel ways to (1) assure global food security; (2) improve soil productivity and conservation; (3) improve crop yields and irrigation; (4) inexpensively develop site specific principles of crop management based on variable soil and associated hydrological properties; and (5) improve precision farming. In February 2015, Central State University (CSU), Ohio became an 1890 Land-Grant institution vital to the sustainability of Ohio's agricultural sector. Besides agricultural extension, the agriculture curriculum at CSU integrates multidisciplinary courses in science, technology engineering, agriculture, and mathematics (STEAM). The agriculture program could benefit from a technology-driven, interdisciplinary soil science course that promotes climate change education and climate literacy while being offered in both a blended and collaborative learning environment. The course will focus on the dynamics of microscale to mesoscale processes occurring in farming systems, those of which impact climate change or could be impacted by climate change. Elements of this course will include: climate change webinars; soil-climate interactions; carbon cycling; the balance of carbon fluxes between soil storage and atmosphere; microorganisms and soil carbon storage; paleoclimate and soil forming processes; geophysical techniques used in the characterization of soil horizons; impact of climate change on soil fertility; experiments; and demonstrations.

What is MISR? MISR Instrument? MISR Project?

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2014-12-08

... to improve our understanding of the Earth's environment and climate. Viewing the sunlit Earth simultaneously at nine widely-spaced angles, ... types of atmospheric particles and clouds on climate. The change in reflection at different view angles affords the means to distinguish ...

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

Functional foods and urban agriculture: two responses to climate change-related food insecurity.

PubMed

Dixon, Jane M; Donati, Kelly J; Pike, Lucy L; Hattersley, Libby

2009-01-01

Affluent diets have negative effects on the health of the population and the environment. Moreover, the ability of industrialised agricultural ecosystems to continue to supply these diets is threatened by the anticipated consequences of climate change. By challenging the ongoing supply the diets of affluent countries, climate change provides a population and environmental health opportunity. This paper contrasts two strategies for dealing with climate change-related food insecurity. Functional foods are being positioned as one response because they are considered a hyper-efficient mechanism for supplying essential micronutrients. An alternative response is civic and urban agriculture. Rather than emphasising increased economic or nutritional efficiencies, civic agriculture presents a holistic approach to food security that is more directly connected to the economic, environmental and social factors that affect diet and health.

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people—especially political conservatives—to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed. PMID:28135337

The resilience of postglacial hunter-gatherers to abrupt climate change.

PubMed

Blockley, Simon; Candy, Ian; Matthews, Ian; Langdon, Pete; Langdon, Cath; Palmer, Adrian; Lincoln, Paul; Abrook, Ashley; Taylor, Barry; Conneller, Chantal; Bayliss, Alex; MacLeod, Alison; Deeprose, Laura; Darvill, Chris; Kearney, Rebecca; Beavan, Nancy; Staff, Richard; Bamforth, Michael; Taylor, Maisie; Milner, Nicky

2018-05-01

Understanding the resilience of early societies to climate change is an essential part of exploring the environmental sensitivity of human populations. There is significant interest in the role of abrupt climate events as a driver of early Holocene human activity, but there are very few well-dated records directly compared with local climate archives. Here, we present evidence from the internationally important Mesolithic site of Star Carr showing occupation during the early Holocene, which is directly compared with a high-resolution palaeoclimate record from neighbouring lake beds. We show that-once established-there was intensive human activity at the site for several hundred years when the community was subject to multiple, severe, abrupt climate events that impacted air temperatures, the landscape and the ecosystem of the region. However, these results show that occupation and activity at the site persisted regardless of the environmental stresses experienced by this society. The Star Carr population displayed a high level of resilience to climate change, suggesting that postglacial populations were not necessarily held hostage to the flickering switch of climate change. Instead, we show that local, intrinsic changes in the wetland environment were more significant in determining human activity than the large-scale abrupt early Holocene climate events.

Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wotton, B. M.; Flannigan, M. D.; Marshall, G. A.

2017-09-01

Much research has been carried out on the potential impacts of climate change on forest fire activity in the boreal forest. Indeed, there is a general consensus that, while change will vary regionally across the vast extent of the boreal, in general the fire environment will become more conducive to fire. Land management agencies must consider ways to adapt to these new conditions. This paper examines the impact of that changed fire environment on overall wildfire suppression capability. We use multiple General Circulation Models and carbon emission pathways to generate future fire environment scenarios for Canada’s forested region. We then use these scenarios with the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System and spatial coverages of the current forest fuel composition across the landscape to examine potential variation in key fire behaviour outputs that influence whether fire management resources can effectively suppress fire. Specifically, we evaluate how the potential for crown fire occurrence and active growth of fires changes with the changing climate. We also examine future fire behaviour through the lens of operational fire intensity thresholds used to guide decisions about resources effectiveness. Results indicate that the proportion of days in fire seasons with the potential for unmanageable fire will increase across Canada’s forest, more than doubling in some regions in northern and eastern boreal forest.

Navigating Negative Conversations in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandia, S. A.; Abraham, J. P.; Dash, J. W.; Ashley, M. C.

2012-12-01

Politically charged public discussions of climate change often lead to polarization as a direct result of many societal, economic, religious and other factors which form opinions. For instance, the general public views climate change as a political discussion rather than a scientific matter. Additionally, many media sources such as websites and mainstream venues and persons have served to promote the "controversy". Scientists who engage in a public discourse of climate change often encounter politically charged environments and audiences. Traditional presentations of the science without attention paid to political, social, or economic matters are likely to worsen the existing divide. An international organization, the Climate Science Rapid Response Team (CSRRT) suggests a strategy that can be used to navigate potentially troublesome situations with divided audiences. This approach can be used during live lecture presentations, and radio, print, or television interviews. The strategy involves identifying alternative motivations for taking action on climate change. The alternative motivations are tailored to the audience and can range from national defense, economic prosperity, religious motivation, patriotism, energy independence, or hunting/fishing reasons. Similar messaging modification can be used to faithfully and accurately convey the importance of taking action on climate change but present the motivations in a way that will be received by the audience.

The Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendry, K. R.; Reis, J.; Hall, I. R.

2011-12-01

In response to the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of climate change research, the Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W) was formed in 2009 by the Welsh universities of Aberystwyth, Bangor, Cardiff and Swansea. Initially funded by Welsh Government, through the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales, the Countryside Council for Wales and the universities, C3W aims to bring together climate change researchers from a wide range of disciplines to explore scientific and sociological drivers, impacts and implications at local, national and international scale. The specific aims are to i) improve our fundamental understanding of the causes, nature, timing and consequences of climate change on Planet Earth's environment and on humanity, and ii) to reconfigure climate research in Wales as a recognisable centre of excellence on the world stage. In addition to improving the infrastructure for climate change research, we aim to improve communication, networking, collaborative research, and multidisciplinary data assimilation within and between the Welsh universities, and other UK and international institutions. Furthermore, C3W aims to apply its research by actively contributing towards national policy development, business development and formal and informal education activities within and beyond Wales.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians

PubMed Central

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J.

2014-01-01

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. PMID:25274369

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

PubMed

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

2014-11-22

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

An innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education: Sustainability in the workplace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Z. P.

2009-04-01

Climate change and climate science are a core component of environment-related degree programmes, but there are many programmes, for example business studies, that have clear linkages to climate change and sustainability issues which often have no or limited coverage of the subject. Although an in-depth coverage of climate science is not directly applicable to all programmes of study, the subject of climate change is of great relevance to all of society. Graduates from the higher education system are often viewed as society's ‘future leaders', hence it can be argued that it is important that all graduates are conversant in the issues of climate change and strategies for moving towards a sustainable future. Rather than an in depth understanding of climate science it may be more important that a wider range of students are educated in strategies for positive action. One aspect of climate change education that may be missing, including in programmes where climate change is a core topic, is practical strategies, skills and knowledge for reducing our impact on the climate system. This presentation outlines an innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education which focuses on the strategies for moving towards sustainability, but which is supported by climate science understanding taught within this context. Students gain knowledge and understanding of the motivations and strategies for businesses to improve their environmental performance, and develop skills in identifying areas of environmental improvement and recommending actions for change. These skills will allow students to drive positive change in their future careers. Such courses are relevant to students of all disciplines and can give the opportunity to students for whom climate change education is not a core part of their programme, to gain greater understanding of the issues and an awareness of practical changes that can be made at all levels to move towards a more sustainable society.

Reconstructed Historical Land Cover and Biophysical Parameters for Studies of Land-Atmosphere Interactions within the Eastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steyaert, Louis T.; Knox, Robert G.

2007-01-01

The local environment where we live within the Earth's biosphere is often taken for granted. This environment can vary depending on whether the land cover is a forest, grassland, wetland, water body, bare soil, pastureland, agricultural field, village, residential suburb, or an urban complex with concrete, asphalt, and large buildings. In general, the type and characteristics of land cover influence surface temperatures, sunlight exposure and duration, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, soil moisture amount, plant life, birds, and other wildlife in our backyards. The physical and biological properties (biophysical characteristics) of land cover help to determine our surface environment because they directly affect surface radiation, heat, and soil moisture processes, and also feedback to regional weather and climate. Depending on the spatial scale and land use intensity, land cover changes can have profound impacts on our local and regional environment. Over the past 350 years, the eastern half of the United States, an area extending from the grassland prairies of the Great Plains to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, has experienced extensive land cover and land use changes that began with land clearing in the 1600s, led to extensive deforestation and intensive land use practices by 1920, and then evolved to the present-day landscape. Determining the consequences of such land cover changes on regional and global climate is a major research issue. Such research requires detailed historical land cover data and modeling experiments simulating historical climates. Given the need to understand the effects of historical land cover changes in the eastern United States, some questions include: - What were the most important land cover transformations and how did they alter biophysical characteristics of the land cover at key points in time since the mid-1600s? - How have land cover and land use changes over the past 350 years affected the land surface environment including surface weather, hydrologic, and climatic variability? - How do the potential effects of regional human-induced land cover change on the environment compare to similar changes that are caused by the natural variations of the Earth's climate system? To help answer these questions, we reconstructed a fractional land cover and biophysical parameter dataset for the eastern United States at 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992 time-slices. Each land cover fraction is associated with a biophysical parameter class, a suite of parameters defining the biophysical characteristics of that kind of land cover. This new dataset is designed for use in computer models of land-atmosphere interactions, to understand and quantify the effects of historical land cover changes on the water, energy, and carbon cycles

Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

2014-12-01

In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

CMIP5-downscaled projections for the NW European Shelf Seas: initial results and insights into uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The North Sea, and wider Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS) are economically, environmentally, and culturally important for a number of European countries. They are protected by European legislation, often with specific reference to the potential impacts of climate change. Coastal climate change projections are an important source of information for effective management of European Shelf Seas. For example, potential changes in the marine environment are a key component of the climate change risk assessments (CCRAs) carried out under the UK Climate Change Act We use the NEMO shelf seas model combined with CMIP5 climate model and EURO-CORDEX regional atmospheric model data to generate new simulations of the NWS. Building on previous work using a climate model perturbed physics ensemble and the POLCOMS, this new model setup is used to provide first indication of the uncertainties associated with: (i) the driving climate model; (ii) the atmospheric downscaling model (iii) the shelf seas downscaling model; (iv) the choice of climate change scenario. Our analysis considers a range of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. The simulations are being carried out as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) and will feed into the following UK CCRA.

The Psychohistory of Climate Change: A Clear and Present Danger.

PubMed

Adams, Kenneth Alan

2016-01-01

The inability of contemporary society to transition from fossil fuels to green energy was engineered by the oil industry, which has worked for decades to stifle the emergence of ecological awareness. Climate change presents a clear and present danger to our society. The present dilemma is the result of the psychopathic corporate system, that pillages the earth for profit (extractivism), evades the real costs of production (externalizing costs), and pursues only self-interest (the best interests of the corporation). The well-being of the environment is thereby sacrificed for profit and our collective future is jeopardized. The corporate practice of creative destruction has gained such Thanatos-like momentum that it threatens the earth in its obsession with profit. Conservatives, under the sway of the unreality principle, dismiss climate change and block efforts to solve climate issues. For them, science is wish fulfillment based on denial. Their willingness to endanger the world results from their authoritarian upbringing. The corporal punishment they endured as children left a residue of rage—the impulse to destroy life—that underlies corporate rationality’s assault on the environment. Fearing death, they inflict death in a perverse ritual to feel alive. Compensating for the narcissistic wounds of childhood through the formation of a grandiose self, they are identified with the omnipotent parent, and alternate between suicidal impulse and escape via godlike technology. Conservative attacks on women highlight the residual wounds of relatedness to their dragon mothers, just as their relatedness to the environment involves a restaging of their encounters with their breast and toilet mothers. Solving environmental problems, however, will require more than overcoming conservative intransigence. The concept of ecological debt accentuates the importance of consumer choice for the environment. The United Nations Human Development Report 2015 regarding CO2 emissions demonstrates the massive environmental debt of Northern Hemisphere societies and suggests the magnitude of the transformation necessary to resolve the problem of climate change.

How Do We Communicate Both the Knowns and Unknowns of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, P.; Selin, C.; Garfinkle, R.

2011-12-01

The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research will only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty about these aspects of climate change and their impacts presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. The Science Museum of Minnesota (SMM) in partnership with the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University, the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, and the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, CA proposes to create a major national touring science exhibition that focuses both on informing the public on what is known about climate change and on how to plan for the future in light of the uncertainties identified above. The scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will test the resilience of societies especially because of the uncertainties regarding where, when and by how much climate will change. Yet the civic space for such conversations is circumscribed. Various interest groups are actively engaged in sowing doubt and confusion in the public's mind about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Consequently, some in the scientific community find the mention of uncertainty in association with climate change as an anathema because of concerns about potentially eroding public understanding and acceptance of the reality of anthropogenic climate change. SMM and its partners are interested in the perspectives of the scientific community with respect to the proposed exhibition. This session will engage participants in a dialog around a number of questions: How should we discuss the uncertainties of climate change while still communicating the scientific consensus on climate change? How do we gain the confidence of the scientific community to get the balance right between the reality of climate change and the uncertainty of how it will manifest itself? How might this project help reopen the presently stifled U.S. civic conversation about climate change? SMM and its partners seek your insights into these and other critical climate change education questions.

Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change.

PubMed

Anderson, Jill T; Inouye, David W; McKinney, Amy M; Colautti, Robert I; Mitchell-Olds, Tom

2012-09-22

Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.

Young Voices on Climate Change: The Paul F-Brandwein 2010 NSTA Lecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherry, Lynne

2011-04-01

Lynne Cherry Brandwein Lecture March 2010 National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) Conference, Philadelphia, PA. Young Voices on Climate Change: Inspired and Empowered Youth Tackle Climate Science and Find Climate Solutions. As a child, Lynne Cherry was profoundly connected to the natural world and a special place. She watched the destruction of her world. Now, through her Young Voices on Climate Change project, she is trying to give teachers and young people the tools to prevent planetary meltdown on a greater scale. Global climate change is upon us and the need for education and action is immediate. Outreach, visual storytelling, and scientific understanding are especially necessary in light of the recent polls that show that the public is becoming more confused and less concerned about climate change. Cherry's climate book, co-authored with photojournalist Gary Braasch, and her Young Voices on Climate Change films feature climate solutions. They're about win-win—save the environment, protect human health, reduce global warming gases, demonstrate youth making a difference with practical tools, motivate engagement in climate science, take pride in increased science literacy, reach young people through their hearts as well as their minds, and save money. Although young people can help their parents, peers and communities understand climate science, they can also show them that reducing CO2 is in their economic interest, and spur them to take action. School carbon reduction initiatives are spilling over into communities yielding measurable results in both global warming gas reductions and significant monetary savings.

Environment for Innovation: Exploring Associations with Individual Disposition toward Change, Organizational Conflict, Justice and Trust

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weinert, Daniel James

2013-01-01

The environment in higher education and healthcare is rapidly changing. Adaptation through innovation is critical for organizations responsible for the education of healthcare providers. This study examined the climate for innovation at chiropractic colleges and health sciences universities offering a doctor of chiropractic program. The…

Geospatial Analysis of Climate-Related Changes in North American Arctic Ecosystems and Implications for Terrestrial Flora and Fauna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.

2016-12-01

Climate change induces range shifts among many terrestrial species in Arctic regions. At best, warming often forces poleward migration if a stable environment is to be maintained. At worst, marginal ecosystems may disappear entirely without a contiguous shift allowing migratory escape to similar environs. These changing migration patterns and poleward range expansion push species into higher latitudes where ecosystems are less stable and more sensitive to change. This project focuses on ecosystem geography and interspecies relationships and interactions by analyzing seasonality and changes over time in variables including the following: temperature, precipitation, vegetation, physical boundaries, population demographics, permafrost, sea ice, and food and water availability. Publicly available data from remote sensing platforms are used throughout, and processed with both commercially available and open sourced GIS tools. This analysis describes observed range changes for selected North American species, and attempts to provide insight into the causes and effects of these phenomena. As the responses to climate change are complex and varied, the goal is to produce the aforementioned results in an easily understood set of geospatial representations to better support decision making regarding conservation prioritization and enable adaptive responses and mitigation strategies.

Climate Change in the Arctic, Moving from Acceptance to Adaptation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinzman, L. D.

2009-12-01

In Alaska, we no longer discuss climate change using words such as “possible” or “potential”. It has arrived. There is ample evidence of impacts from a changing climate in Alaska, primarily due to the predominance of snow, ice and permafrost. The presence or absence of frozen ground or water will dominate the local ecology, hydrology, physical characteristics and surface energy balance. As the soil or ice progresses through thawing, threshold changes occur that may initiate a cascade of events resulting in substantial changes to the regional character. If one examines any individual scientific discipline, evidence of climate change in arctic regions offers only pieces of the puzzle. This presentation will include a broad array of evidence to provide a convincing case of change in the arctic climate and a system-wide response of terrestrial processes. The thermal regime of the Arctic holds unique characteristics and consequently will display marked changes in response to climate warming. In many cases, threshold changes will occur in physical systems proceeding from permanently frozen to periodically thawed. Dramatic changes also accompany biological systems adapting to an evolving environment. It is expected that the effects and consequences of a warming climate will become even more evident within the next 10 to 50 years so our society must now consider actions related to adaptation and preparation for change.

Flood Seasonality in a Changing Climate - A Comparison Between Northern Europe and Northeastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Dieppois, B.; Lawler, D.; Lyon, S. W.

2016-12-01

Fluvial flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. Concurrent with climate change flood seasonality in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, i.e. flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large-scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explored changes in flood seasonality across near-natural catchments in cold environments of the North Atlantic region (40 - 70° N) using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt-dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring (March through May), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows. Mean daily flows corroborate those findings with approximately 50% of the catchments showing significant changes. Comparing Scandinavia to North America the same trends could be detected with a stronger signal at the west coast of Scandinavia due to the Westerlies. Contrasting trends were detected for spring flows, for which North American catchments showed decreasing trends whereas increasing trends were observed across Scandinavia. Such changes in flood seasonality have clear implications for management strategies such as the estimation of design floods for flood prevention measures.

Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Cousins, Ian T

2014-09-01

The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Range-wide reproductive consequences of ocean climate variability for the seabird Cassin's Auklet.

PubMed

Wolf, Shaye G; Sydeman, William J; Hipfner, J Mark; Abraham, Christine L; Tershy, Bernie R; Croll, Donald A

2009-03-01

We examine how ocean climate variability influences the reproductive phenology and demography of the seabird Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) across approximately 2500 km of its breeding range in the oceanographically dynamic California Current System along the west coast of North America. Specifically, we determine the extent to which ocean climate conditions and Cassin's Auklet timing of breeding and breeding success covary across populations in British Columbia, central California, and northern Mexico over six years (2000-2005) and test whether auklet timing of breeding and breeding success are similarly related to local and large-scale ocean climate indices across populations. Local ocean foraging environments ranged from seasonally variable, high-productivity environments in the north to aseasonal, low-productivity environments to the south, but covaried similarly due to the synchronizing effects of large-scale climate processes. Auklet timing of breeding in the southern population did not covary with populations to the north and was not significantly related to local oceanographic conditions, in contrast to northern populations, where timing of breeding appears to be influenced by oceanographic cues that signal peaks in prey availability. Annual breeding success covaried similarly across populations and was consistently related to local ocean climate conditions across this system. Overall, local ocean climate indices, particularly sea surface height, better explained timing of breeding and breeding success than a large-scale climate index by better representing heterogeneity in physical processes important to auklets and their prey. The significant, consistent relationships we detected between Cassin's Auklet breeding success and ocean climate conditions across widely spaced populations indicate that Cassin's Auklets are susceptible to climate change across the California Current System, especially by the strengthening of climate processes that synchronize oceanographic conditions. Auklet populations in the northern and central regions of this ecosystem may be more sensitive to changes in the timing and variability of ocean climate conditions since they appear to time breeding to take advantage of seasonal productivity peaks.

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

2017-10-01

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming: moving from individual to community-level responses.

PubMed

Nagelkerken, Ivan; Munday, Philip L

2016-03-01

Biological communities are shaped by complex interactions between organisms and their environment as well as interactions with other species. Humans are rapidly changing the marine environment through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in ocean warming and acidification. The first response by animals to environmental change is predominantly through modification of their behaviour, which in turn affects species interactions and ecological processes. Yet, many climate change studies ignore animal behaviour. Furthermore, our current knowledge of how global change alters animal behaviour is mostly restricted to single species, life phases and stressors, leading to an incomplete view of how coinciding climate stressors can affect the ecological interactions that structure biological communities. Here, we first review studies on the effects of warming and acidification on the behaviour of marine animals. We demonstrate how pervasive the effects of global change are on a wide range of critical behaviours that determine the persistence of species and their success in ecological communities. We then evaluate several approaches to studying the ecological effects of warming and acidification, and identify knowledge gaps that need to be filled, to better understand how global change will affect marine populations and communities through altered animal behaviours. Our review provides a synthesis of the far-reaching consequences that behavioural changes could have for marine ecosystems in a rapidly changing environment. Without considering the pervasive effects of climate change on animal behaviour we will limit our ability to forecast the impacts of ocean change and provide insights that can aid management strategies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis.

PubMed

Simane, Belay; Beyene, Hunachew; Deressa, Wakgari; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Samet, Jonathan

2016-01-01

This review assessed Ethiopia's existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health activities are not strong enough to address the climate change and health issues in the country.

Considering Students' Out-of-School Lives and Values in Designing Learning Environments for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, E.; Tsurusaki, B.

2012-12-01

What are the implications of social controversy for the teaching and learning of climate change science? How do the political dimensions of this controversy affect learners' attitudes towards and reasoning about climate change and climate science? Case studies from a pilot enactment of an ecological impacts of climate change curriculum explore these questions by describing how five high school students' understandings of climate change science developed at the intersection of political and scientific values, attitudes, and ways of knowing. Case studies combine qualitative, ethnographic methods including interviews and classroom video observations with quantitative pre/post-assessments of student conceptual understandings and weekly surveys of student engagement. Data indicate that students had initial perceptions of climate change informed by the media and their families—both supporting and rejecting the scientific consensus—that influenced how they engaged with the scientific evidence. While students who were initially antagonistic to anthropogenic climate change did develop conceptual understandings of the scientific evidence for human-influences on climate change, this work was challenging and at times frustrating for them. These case studies demonstrate the wide range of initial attitudes and understandings that students bring to the study of climate change. They also demonstrate that it is possible to make significant shifts in students' understandings of climate change science, even in students who were initially resistant to the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, multiple case studies discuss ways that the learning that occurred in the classroom crossed out of the classroom into the students' homes and family talk. This work highlights how learners' pathways are shaped not only by their developing understanding of the scientific evidence but also by the political and social influences that learners navigate across the contexts of their lives. It underscores the need to understand and support students as they interact with climate change across the contexts of their lives.

Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis

PubMed Central

Simane, Belay; Beyene, Hunachew; Deressa, Wakgari; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Samet, Jonathan

2017-01-01

Background This review assessed Ethiopia’s existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. Methods The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Results Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Conclusion Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health activities are not strong enough to address the climate change and health issues in the country. PMID:28867919

The Douglas-fir seed-source movement trial yields early results

Treesearch

Constance A. Harrington; Brad St. Clair

2017-01-01

Climate change in the 21st century is likely to dramatically alter the growing conditions that Pacific Northwest tree species experience. It has been suggested that foresters plan for these changes by moving seed sources to locations where the seed-source environment and the future climate will be similar. Some people have called this type of seed-source movement “...

Security Planning and Policies to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-01

Security Climate change poses challenges to societies and governments that go far beyond the alteration of our environment. The physical impacts of...capacity of governments to respond. In this sense, the growing likelihood of events such as mass migrations, crop failures, economic shocks, public...riots and violence, floods and other natural disasters, widespread epidemics, and competition for resources pose serious challenges for governments and

Global Warming, Africa and National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-15

African populations. This includes awareness from a global perspective in line with The Army Strategy for the Environment, the UN’s Intergovernmental...2 attention. At the time, computer models did not indicate a significant issue with global warming suggesting only a modest increase of 2°C9...projected climate changes. Current Science The science surrounding climate change and global warming was, until recently, a point of

A simple model that identifies potential effects of sea-level rise on estuarine and estuary-ecotone habitat locations for salmonids in Oregon, USA

Treesearch

Rebecca Flitcroft; Kelly Burnett; Kelly Christiansen

2013-01-01

Diadromous aquatic species that cross a diverse range of habitats (including marine, estuarine, and freshwater) face different effects of climate change in each environment. One such group of species is the anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). Studies of the potential effects of climate change on salmonids have focused on both marine and...

Culture, climate change and farm-level groundwater management: An Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, Matthew R.; Curtis, Allen L.

2016-05-01

Cultural factors - values, beliefs, and norms - provide important insights into the environmental attitudes, risk perceptions, and behaviors of the general population. Little is known, however, about the ostensibly complex relationships linking those elements of culture to climate change risk perceptions, especially in the context of farm level decision in the ground water context. This paper addresses that gap through an analysis of survey data provided by irrigators in the Namoi catchment of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. We use Values-Beliefs-Norms theory to construct multivariate models of the relationship between ground water irrigators' interpretations of climate change risks and their implementation of adaptive water conservation practices. Results indicate that these cultural factors are important explanations of irrigators' climate change risk perceptions, and these risk perceptions are related to adaptive ground water management strategies at the farm level. The implications of the findings are discussed for research on the culture-environment nexus and for outreach designed to encourage agricultural adaptations to climate change.

Climate change impact on microclimate of work environment related to occupational health and productivity.

PubMed

Marchetti, Enrico; Capone, Pasquale; Freda, Daniela

2016-01-01

Climate change is a global emergency that influences human health and occupational safety. Global warming characterized by an increase in temperature of the ambience and humidity affects human health directly impairing body thermoregulation with serious consequences: dehydration, fatigue, heat stroke and even death. Several studies have demonstrated negative effects of climate change on working populations in a wide variety of workplaces with particular regard to outdoor and uncooled indoor workplaces. Most vulnerable workers are outdoor workers in tropical and subtropical countries usually involved in heavy labor during hot seasons. Many of the consequences therefore, regarding working people are possible, even without health symptoms by reducing work productivity. The scope of this review is to investigate effects of climate change on workers both in relation to health and work productivity. This study has been realized by analyzing recent international literature. In order to reduce negative effects of climate change on working populations it is essential to implement preventive measures with a multidisciplinary strategy limiting health risks and improving work productivity.

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussionsmore » may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.« less

Recognizing and exploring the right questions with climate data: An example of better understanding ENSO in climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.; Buja, L.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Halley-Gotway, J.; Kaatz, L.; Yates, D. N.

2017-12-01

Coordinated, multi-model climate change projection archives have already led to a flourishing of new climate impact applications. Collections and online tools for the computation of derived indicators have attracted many non-specialist users and decision-makers and facilitated for them the exploration of potential future weather and climate changes on their systems. Guided by a set of standardized steps and analyses, many can now use model output and determine basic model-based changes. But because each application and decision-context is different, the question remains if such a small collection of standardized tools can faithfully and comprehensively represent the critical physical context of change? We use the example of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the largest and most broadly recognized mode of variability in the climate system, to explore the difference in impact contexts between a quasi-blind, protocol-bound and a flexible, scientifically guided use of climate information. More use oriented diagnostics of the model-data as well as different strategies for getting data into decision environments are explored.

Limits of pastoral adaptation to permafrost regions caused by climate change among the Sakha people in the middle basin of Lena River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takakura, Hiroki

2016-09-01

This article focuses on the pastoral practices of the Sakha people in eastern Siberia to explore the impact of climate change on human livelihood in permafrost regions. Sakha use grassland resources in river terraces and the alaas thermokarst landscape for cattle-horse husbandry. Although they practice a different form of subsistence than other indigenous arctic peoples, such as hunter - gatherers or reindeer herders, the adaptation of Sakha has been relatively resilient in the past 600-800 years. Recent climate change, however, could change this situation. According to hydrologists, increased precipitation is now observed in eastern Siberia, which has resulted in the increase of permafrost thawing, causing forests to die. Moreover, local meteorologists report an increase of flooding in local rivers. How do these changes affect the local pastoral adaptation? While describing recent uses of grassland resource by local people, and their perception of climate change through anthropological field research, I investigated the subtle characteristics of human-environment interactions in pastoral adaptation, in order to identify the limits of adaptation in the face of climate change.

Green cities, smart people and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Byrne, J. M.; Hazendonk, P.; Brown, M. B.; Harrison, T.

2014-12-01

Climate change will require substantial changes to urban environments. Cities are huge sources of greenhouse gases. Further, cities will suffer tremendously under climate change due to heat stresses, urban flooding, energy and water supply and demand changes, transportation problems, resource supply and demand and a host of other trials and tribulations. Cities that evolve most quickly and efficiently to deal with climate change will likely take advantage of the changes to create enjoyable, healthy and safer living spaces for families and communities. Technology will provide much of the capability to both mitigate and adapt our cities BUT education and coordination of citizen and community lifestyle likely offers equal opportunities to make our cities more sustainable and more enjoyable places to live. This work is the first phase of a major project evaluating urban mitigation and adaptation policies, programs and technologies. All options are considered, from changes in engineering, planning and management; and including a range of citizen and population-based lifestyle practices.

Knowledge of and attitudes toward climate change and its effects on health among nursing students: A multi-Arab country study.

PubMed

Felicilda-Reynaldo, Rhea Faye D; Cruz, Jonas Preposi; Alshammari, Farhan; Obaid, Khamees B; Rady, Hanan Ebrahim Abd El Aziz; Qtait, Mohammad; Alquwez, Nahed; Colet, Paolo C

2018-04-01

Climate change and its impact on health continues to receive inadequate attention in the nursing literature, especially in the Arab region. This study explored the knowledge of and attitudes toward climate change and its effect on health among nursing students from four Arab countries. A cross-sectional study was conducted among a convenience sample of 1,059 baccalaureate nursing students from four Arab countries using the New Ecological Paradigm scale and an adapted questionnaire. The findings indicate an average range of attitude toward the environment, with country of residence, type of community, academic-year level, and climate change related variables as significant factors influencing students' attitudes. A moderate level of knowledge about the potential health related impacts of climate change was revealed. Students from Saudi Arabia and Palestinian Territory reported a significantly higher level of knowledge than Egyptian and Iraqi students. Most of the respondents reported that all identified health related effects of climate change have already increased, while more than two-thirds reported that each of the health-related impacts would increase within the next 20 years. The findings underscore the need for more coverage of topics related to climate change and its health-related impacts in nursing education curricula in Arab countries. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Physiological plasticity increases resilience of ectothermic animals to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seebacher, Frank; White, Craig R.; Franklin, Craig E.

2015-01-01

Understanding how climate change affects natural populations remains one of the greatest challenges for ecology and management of natural resources. Animals can remodel their physiology to compensate for the effects of temperature variation, and this physiological plasticity, or acclimation, can confer resilience to climate change. The current lack of a comprehensive analysis of the capacity for physiological plasticity across taxonomic groups and geographic regions, however, constrains predictions of the impacts of climate change. Here, we assembled the largest database to date to establish the current state of knowledge of physiological plasticity in ectothermic animals. We show that acclimation decreases the sensitivity to temperature and climate change of freshwater and marine animals, but less so in terrestrial animals. Animals from more stable environments have greater capacity for acclimation, and there is a significant trend showing that the capacity for thermal acclimation increases with decreasing latitude. Despite the capacity for acclimation, climate change over the past 20 years has already resulted in increased physiological rates of up to 20%, and we predict further future increases under climate change. The generality of these predictions is limited, however, because much of the world is drastically undersampled in the literature, and these undersampled regions are the areas of greatest need for future research efforts.

The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2011-01-01

The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

State of knowledge on marine palynology in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugroho, S. H.

2018-02-01

Pollen analyses of marine sediments contribute to reconstructions of the vegetation and climate, as well as to environment changes and human-environment interactions, which is reflected in marine sediments of Indonesian waters. Furthermore, factors controlling pollen deposition are of particular importance, like in the Indonesian region where the whole climate system is driven mostly by the monsoon reversal. In this paper, I review some palynology studies in Indonesia, and I found out that there were not any marine pollen studies during the Last Glacial - Holocene in Indonesia area, especially in the Eastern Indonesia. Review results show that during that time, although temperatures were lower, there were differences on humid-arid climate indications in each region which were characterized by discrepancy vegetation. Detailed analysis of past environmental, climate and land use history in the Indonesian region is essential to obtain better understanding of human-environment relationships and to prevent uncertainties in future development of the region.

Strengthening education in human values - The Link between Recycling and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastanidou, Sofia

2014-05-01

This work is an environmental education program of 50 hours- off curriculum, currently run by High school of Nikaia - Larissas. I as coordinator teacher, another two teachers and 24 students participate in this program. Intended learning outcomes: students will be able to define the importance of climate change, to evaluate the effect of human activities on climate, and to recognize the role of recycling in preventing global climate change. It is an environmental program with social goals. That means students have to understand the link between human and environment and learn how to combine environmental protection with human help. As a consequence collaboration has already begun between High school of Nikaia and the Paraplegic & Physically Disabled Association of Pella-Greece. This is a nonprofit association that collects plastic caps; with the contribution of a recycling company the Paraplegic Association converts plastic caps in wheelchairs and gives them to needy families. So, recycling caps becomes a meaningful form of environmental and social activism. Students are educated about the meaning of recycling and encouraged to collect all types of plastic caps; they are also educated in the meaning of helping people. Further, this environmental education program consists of two parts, a theoretical and a practical one: a) Theoretical part: education is an essential element of the global response to climate change, so students have to research on climate change; they visit the Center for Environmental Education in Florina and experience the aquatic ecosystem of Prespa lakes; specialists of the Centre inform students about the effects of climate change on wetlands; students have further to research how recycling can help fight global climate change as well as examine how recycling a key component of modern waste reduction is, as the third component of the "Reduce, Reuse, Recycle" waste hierarchy; they discover the interdependence of society, economy and the natural environment; they visit the City Cleaning-Recycling Services; scientists visit our school and engage students in the climate change issue; students are educated in developing ecological consciousness paths to a sustainable future. b) Practical part: students use recycled materials to build containers where everyone can put the plastic caps; they decorate containers with other recyclable materials such as magazine clippings, ribbons etc.; students are encouraged to contact local organizations (municipality, post office, and banks), sports clubs and shops, to inform people about their action and to put the containers for plastic caps in the place they work or in their houses; they collect plastic caps frequently at school; at the end of the environmental education program all the students visit Paraplegic & Physically Disabled Association in Pella-Yannitsa and deliver the collected caps. We hope that students will leave the program with new skills, experiences and knowledge that can be used to help themselves, their communities, their environment and future generations. "Our changing planet - our changing society for a better future".

Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae

PubMed Central

Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

2012-01-01

Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds—protosteloid amoebae—in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an ‘everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale. PMID:22402402

Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae.

PubMed

Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

2012-08-01

Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Murray, Michael W.; Kao, Yu-Chun; Feiner, Zachary S.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Höök, Tomas O.; Ludsin, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.

Finding "Models" in Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, Ruby

2017-05-01

Internationally recognized Climate Scientist Ruby Leung is a cloud gazer. But rather than looking for shapes, Ruby’s life’s calling is to develop regional atmospheric models to better predict and understand the effects of global climate change at scales relevant to humans and the environment. Ruby’s accomplishments include developing novel methods for modeling mountain clouds and precipitation in climate models, and improving understanding of hydroclimate variability and change. She also has led efforts to develop regional climate modeling capabilities in the Weather Research and Forecasting model that is widely adopted by scientists worldwide. Ruby is part of a team of PNNLmore » researchers studying the impacts of global warming.« less

Modelling global change impacts on soil carbon contents of agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozano-García, Beatriz; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Parras-Alcántara, Luis

2016-04-01

To assess the impact of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in agro-silvo-pastoral environments, different models have been applied worldwide at local or regional scales, such as as RothC (Francaviglia et al., 2012) or CENTURY (Alvaro-Fuentes et al., 2012). However, some of these models may require a high number of input parameters or can underestimate the effect of soil depth. CarboSOIL (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013) is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed to predict SOC contents at standard soil depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75 cm) under a range of climate and/or land use change scenarios. CarboSOIL has been successfully applied in different Mediterranean areas ,e.g. Southern Spain (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013; Abd-Elmabod et al., 2014), Northern Egypt (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2014) and Italy (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2015). In this study, CarboSOIL was applied in the Cardeña and Montoro mountain range Natural Park. This area covers 385 km2 and is located within Sierra Morena (Córdoba, South Spain) and has a semiarid Mediterranean climate. It is characterized by agro-silvo-pastoral systems. The Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland (MEOW-dehesa) is savanna-like open woodland ecosystem characterized by silvopastoral uses, being an ancient human modified Mediterranean landscape (Corral-Fernández et al., 2013; Lozano-García and Parras-Alcántara 2013). The most representative soils in the Cardeña and Montoro mountain range Natural Park are Cambisols, Regosols, Leptosols and Fluvisols. These soils are characterized by low fertility, poor physical conditions and marginal capacity for agricultural use, together with low organic matter (OM) content due to climate conditions (semiarid Mediterranean climate) and soil texture (sandy). The model was applied at different soil depths: 0-25, 25-50 and 50-75 cm (Parras-Alcántara et al., 2015) considering land use and climate changes scenarios based on available global climate models (IPPC, 2007). A total of 38 sampling points were selected under two management practices and six different land uses: (1) MEOW-dehesa (D); (2) MEOW-dehesa + some pine trees (D+P); (3) MEOW-dehesa + some cork oaks (D+C); (4) MEOW-dehesa + some gall oaks (D + G); (5) MEOW-dehesa after a clarified process and transformed to olive grove but maintaining isolated oaks (OG) and (6) MEOW-dehesa after a clarified process and transformed to cereal pasture with isolated oaks (C). Preliminary results showed a high heterogeneity of SOC contents along the soil profile for different climate and land use scenarios. The methods used here can be easily implemented in other Mediterranean areas with available information on climate, site, soil and land use. Keywords: CarboSOIL model, land use change, climate change, soil depth, dehesa References: Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Anaya-Romero, M., De la Rosa, D., 2014. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks along topographic transects under climate change scenarios using CarboSOIL. Geophys. Res. Abstr. vol. 16 EGU2014-295-1, EGU General Assembly.) Álvaro-Fuentes, J., Easter, M., Paustian, K., 2012. Climate change effects on organic carbon storage in agricultural soils of northeastern Spain. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 155, 87-94. Corral-Fernández, R., Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B. 2013. Stratification ratio of soil organic C, N and C:N in Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland with conventional and organic tillage. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 164, 252-259. Francaviglia, R., Coleman, K., Whitmore, A.P., Doro, L., Urracci, G., Rubino, M., Ledda, L., 2012. Changes in soil organic carbon and climate change - application of the RothC model in agrosilvo-pastoral Mediterranean systems. Agric. Syst. 112, 48- 54. IPCC, 2007. Technical summary. In: Climate Change 2007. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/. Lozano-García, B., Parras-Alcántara, L. 2013. Land use and management effects on carbon and nitrogen in Mediterranean Cambisols. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 179, 208- 214. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., González-Peñaloza, F.A., De la Rosa, D., Pino-Mejias, R., Anaya-Romero, M., 2013. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks in global change scenarios: a CarboSOIL application. Biogeosciences 10, 8253-8268. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., Anaya-Romero, M., De la Rosa, D., 2014. Potential soil organic carbon stocks in semi arid areas under climate change scenarios: an application of CarboSOIL model in northern Egypt. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 16 EGU2014-638-3, EGU General Assembly. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Doro, L., Ledda, L. and Francaviglia, R. 2015. Application of CarboSOIL model to predict the effects of climate change on soil organic carbon stocks in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management. Agriculture, ecosystems and environment 202, 8-16. Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B., Brevik, E.C., Cerdá, A. 2015. Soil organic carbon stocks assessment in Mediterranean natural areas: A comparison of entire soil profiles and soil control sections. Journal of Environmental Management 15, 155-215.

Is average chain length of plant lipids a potential proxy for vegetation, environment and climate changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Zhang, W.; Hou, J.

2015-04-01

Average chain length (ACL) of leaf wax components preserved in lacustrine sediments and soil profiles has been widely adopted as a proxy indicator for past changes in vegetation, environment and climate during the late Quaternary. The fundamental assumption is that woody plants produce leaf waxes with shorter ACL values than non-woody plants. However, there is a lack of systematic survey of modern plants to justify the assumption. Here, we investigated various types of plants at two lakes, Blood Pond in the northeastern USA and Lake Ranwu on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and found that the ACL values were not significantly different between woody and non-woody plants. We also compiled the ACL values of modern plants in the literatures and performed a meta-analysis to determine whether a significant difference exists between woody and non-woody plants at single sites. The results showed that the ACL values of plants at 19 out of 26 sites did not show a significant difference between the two major types of plants. This suggests that extreme caution should be taken in using ACL as proxy for past changes in vegetation, environment and climate.

GLOBE and Place-based learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, T. J.; Murphy, T.; Malmberg, J. S.; Wegner, K.

2016-12-01

You visit a special natural setting and are amazed at the splendor. You revisit it years later at the same time of year and note how it has changed. The environment looks different-algae is growing where it didn't before. Trees are dying. Weeds are flourishing. You ask yourself "why is this happening?" The spark starting your climate place-based awareness just ignited. The GLOBE program encourages and enables young citizen scientists to observe and record measurements related to the environment and to use those measurements for research. Over 130 learning activities supplement the 51 measurement protocols that can be done in and out of the field, with and without technical devices that open up the mind to questions about one's environment. From taking pictures of the sky to creating instruments, to noting when plants bloom and examining the characteristics of the soil and land, GLOBE encourages investigating climate change in numerous ways. GLOBE activities encouraging climate awareness and "what if" scenarios fuel student research and help validate scientific research. Studying one's local GLOBE observations and seeing where and when change occurs, brings out intrigue that expands to investigating multiple places where even more questions can arise-fueling the scientific process and encouraging place-based learning.

Researchers focus attention on coastal response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, John; Rodriguez, Antonio; Fletcher, Charles; Fitzgerald, Duncan

The world's population has been steadily migrating toward coastal cities, resulting in severe stress on coastal environments. But the most severe human impact on coastal regions may lie ahead as the rate of global sea-level rise accelerates and the impacts of global warming on coastal climates and oceanographic dynamics increase [Varekamp and Thomas, 1998; Hinrichsen, 1999; Goodwin et al., 2000]. Little is currently being done to forecast the impact of global climate change on coasts during the next century and beyond. Indeed, there are still many politicians, and even some scientists, who doubt that global change is a real threat to society.

Hydrologic Response to Climatic and Vegetation Change in an Extreme Alpine Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livneh, B.; Badger, A.; Molotch, N. P.; Bueno de Mesquita, C.; Suding, K.

2016-12-01

Mountain hydrology and ecology are uniquely sensitive to climate change. This presentation will examine how changes in climate have altered land cover and hydrology in the Green Lakes Valley, an alpine catchment for which approximately 80% of the annual precipitation ( 950 mm/yr) falls as snow. In these environments vegetation has two way interaction with hydrology: its distribution is driven by patterns of snowpack and water availability while it functions to modulate hydrologic responses by alterating land-atmosphere interaction. Long-term climate trends indicate warming, earlier snowmelt, and longer snow-free growing seasons. High-resolution aerial photography from 1972 and 2008 identified vegetation encroachment as shrubs and trees have increased in vigor and density in the tundra, while herbaceous tundra plants have colonized high-elevation bare ground. To understand modulations to physical hydrology from climate and biophysical responses, we apply a 20-m resolution fully-distributed hydrologic model. Through the use of observed meteorology (radiation, humidity, temperature and precipitation) an hourly climatology was created. Realizations from a stochastic ensemble of this climatology together with trends from long-term observations are used to characterize historical hydrologic response and project future changes. Through temperature and precipitation change experiments, alterations to the annual water cycle are presented—indicating the importance of annual snowpack evolution on both the surface and sub-surface hydrology, particularly through seasonal water storage. Probabilistic land cover change scenarios are developed that project how further vegetation encroachment modulates surface water fluxes and sediment yields. Lastly, the context of these results are compared with hydrometeorological research from other differing alpine and ecological regions.

Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas.

PubMed

Keller, Brian D; Gleason, Daniel F; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D; Friedlander, Alan M; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E; Miller, Steven L; Steneck, Robert S

2009-12-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

A Model for Teaching a Climate Change Elective Science Course at the Community College Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandia, S. A.

2012-12-01

The impact of global climate change is far-reaching, both for humanity and for the environment. It is essential that our students be provided a strong scientific background for the role of natural and human caused climate change so that they are better prepared to become involved in the discussion. Here the author reveals a successful model designed for use with a diverse student body at the community college level. Teaching strategies beyond the traditional lecture and exam style include: web-based resources such as static websites along with dynamic blogging tools, post-lecture cooperative learning review sessions, weekly current event research projects, use of rubrics to assist students in their own project evaluation before submission, and a research paper utilizing the Skeptical Science website to examine the validity of the most common climate change myths.

Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Hawdon, John M; Hoberg, Eric P

2010-12-01

Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hormonal, behavioral, and life-history traits exhibit correlated shifts in relation to population establishment in a novel environment.

PubMed

Atwell, Jonathan W; Cardoso, Gonçalo C; Whittaker, Danielle J; Price, Trevor D; Ketterson, Ellen D

2014-12-01

Climate change, habitat alteration, range expansions, and biological invasions are all predicted to require rapid shifts in multiple traits including behavior and life history, both for initial population establishment and subsequent adaptation. Hormonal mechanisms likely play a key role in facilitating or constraining plastic and genetic responses for suites of traits, but few studies have evaluated their role in shaping contemporary adaptation or diversification. We examined multiple phenotypic adjustments and associated hormonal changes following a recent (early 1980s) colonization event, in which a temperate-breeding songbird, the dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis), became established in the Mediterranean climate of San Diego, California. The milder climate has led to an extended breeding season and year-round residency, and we document shifts in multiple sexually selected behaviors and plumage traits. Testosterone titers in San Diego were elevated for longer but with a lower peak value compared to a nearby native-range population, and correlations between testosterone and related traits were similar within and among populations. A common garden study indicated that changes in testosterone likely represent plastic responses to the less seasonal environment of the city, providing the context against which subsequent genetic changes in morphology likely occurred. We argue that correlated shifts in multiple traits, organized by underlying physiology, may be a generally important element of many successful adjustments to changing environments.

Simulating malaria transmission in the current and future climate of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2015-12-01

Malaria transmission in West Africa is closely tied to climate, as rain fed water pools provide breeding habitat for the anopheles mosquito vector, and temperature affects the mosquito's ability to spread disease. We present results of a highly detailed, spatially explicit mechanistic modelling study exploring the relationships between the environment and malaria in the current and future climate of West Africa. A mechanistic model of human immunity was incorporated into an existing agent-based model of malaria transmission, allowing us to move beyond entomological measures such as mosquito density and vectorial capacity to analyzing the prevalence of the malaria parasite within human populations. The result is a novel modelling tool that mechanistically simulates all of the key processes linking environment to malaria transmission. Simulations were conducted across climate zones in West Africa, linking temperature and rainfall to entomological and epidemiological variables with a focus on nonlinearities due to threshold effects and interannual variability. Comparisons to observations from the region confirmed that the model provides a reasonable representation of the entomological and epidemiological conditions in this region. We used the predictions of future climate from the most credible CMIP5 climate models to predict the change in frequency and severity of malaria epidemics in West Africa as a result of climate change.

Cooler performance breadth in a viviparous skink relative to its oviparous congener.

PubMed

Landry Yuan, Félix; Pickett, Evan J; Bonebrake, Timothy C

2016-10-01

Susceptibility of species to climate change varies depending on many biological and environmental traits, such as reproductive mode and climatic exposure. For example, wider thermal tolerance breadths are associated with more climatically variable habitats and viviparity could be associated with greater vulnerability relative to oviparity. However, few examples exist detailing how such physiological and environmental traits together might shape species thermal performance. In this study we compared the thermal tolerance and performance of two sympatric skink congeners in Hong Kong that differ in habitat use and reproductive mode. The viviparous Sphenomorphus indicus lives on the forest floor while the oviparous Sphenomorphus incognitus occupies stream edges. We quantified the thermal environments in each of these habitats to compare climatic exposure and then calculated thermal safety margins, potential daily activity times within each species' thermal optimal range, and possible climate change vulnerability. Although we did not detect any differences in thermal tolerance range or thermal environments across habitats, we found cooler performance in S. indicus relative to S. incognitus. Moreover, while optimal activity time increases for both skinks under a warming scenario, we project that the thermal safety margin of S. indicus would narrow to nearly zero, thus losing its buffering capacity to potential extreme climate events in the future. This research is thus consistent with recent studies emphasizing the vulnerability of viviparous reptiles to a warming climate. The results together furthermore highlight the complexity in how environmental and physiological traits at multiple spatial scales structure climate change vulnerability of ectothermic species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. PMID:26505637

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Aalst, M.

Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts atmore » risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current climate conditions. There are several ways in which the World Bank Group can continue helping its clients better manage climate risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development: Integrating climate risk management into the project cycle, by adopting early risk identification (for instance by applying a quick and simple risk-screening tool) and following up throughout the design process if necessary. Integrating climate risk management into country and sector dialogues, especially in countries and sectors that are particularly vulnerable. Enhancing internal support for and coordination of climate risk management by, for example, expanding analytical work and capacity for cross-support by the Global Climate Change Team and the Hazard Management Unit of the World Bank and by actively developing climate risk management activities within regional departments. Supporting the establishment of proper financing mechanisms for adaptation, using, for example, the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development. New funding mechanisms created under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and being made operational by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), as well as the Kyoto Protocol, should be used to leverage maximum adaptation results within the Bank's broad range of development activities and investments. By enhancing climate risk management, the World Bank Group will be able to address the growing risks from climate change and, at the same time, make current development investments more resilient to climate variability and extreme weather events. In that way, climate risk management will not only guard the Bank's investments in a changing climate but will also improve the impact of development efforts right now.« less

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish.

PubMed

Rolls, Robert J; Hayden, Brian; Kahilainen, Kimmo K

2017-06-01

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context-dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non-native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.

Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-03-01

A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

PubMed

Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-08-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate forecasts lead to ineffective prioritization of conservation activities and potentially to avoidable species extinctions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Low robustness of increasing reservoir capacity for adaptation to climate change: A case study for an agricultural river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Daeha; Eum, Hyung-Il

2017-04-01

With growing concerns of the uncertain climate change, investments in water infrastructures are considered as adaptation policies for water managers and stakeholders despite their negative impacts on the environment. Particularly in regions with limited water availability or conflicting demands, building reservoirs and/or augmenting their storage capacity were already adopted for alleviating influences of the climate change. This study provides a probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on water scarcity in a river system regulated by an agricultural reservoir in South Korea, which already increased its storage capacity for water supply. For the assessment, we developed the climate response functions (CRFs) defined as relationships between bi-decadal system performance indicators (reservoir reliability and vulnerability) and corresponding climatic conditions, using hydrological models with 10,000-year long stochastic generation of daily precipitation and temperatures. The climate change impacts were assessed by plotting 52 downscaled climate projections of general circulation models (GCMs) on the CRFs. Results indicated that augmented reservoir capacity makes the reservoir system more sensitive to changes in long-term averages of precipitation and temperatures despite improved system performances. Increasing reservoir capacity is unlikely to be "no regret" adaptation policy for the river system. On the other hand, converting the planting strategy from transplanting to direct sowing (i.e., a demand control) could be a more robust to bi-decadal climatic changes based on CRFs and thus could be good to be a no-regret policy.

Spectators or participants: How can SETAC become more engaged in international climate change research programs?

PubMed

Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L; Clements, William H

2017-08-01

Environmental toxicologists and chemists have been crucial to evaluating the chemical fate and toxicological effects of environmental contaminants, including chlorinated pesticides, before and after Rachel Carson's publication of Silent Spring in 1962. Like chlorinated pesticides previously, global climate change is widely considered to be one of the most important environmental challenges of our time. Over the past 30 yr, climate scientists and modelers have shown that greenhouse gases such as CO 2 and CH 4 cause radiative forcing (climate forcing) and lead to increased global temperatures. Despite significant climate change research efforts worldwide, the climate science community has overlooked potential problems associated with chemical contaminants, in particular how climate change could magnify the ecological consequences of their use and disposal. It is conceivable that the impacts of legacy or new chemical contaminants on wildlife and humans may be exacerbated when climate changes, especially if global temperatures rise as predicted. This lack of attention to chemical contaminants represents an opportunity for environmental toxicologists and chemists to become part of the global research program, and our objective is to highlight the importance of and ways for that to occur. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1971-1977. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Estonian greenhouse gas emissions inventory report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Punning, J.M.; Ilomets, M.; Karindi, A.

1996-07-01

It is widely accepted that the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere due to human activities would result in warming of the Earth`s surface. To examine this effect and better understand how the GHG increase in the atmosphere might change the climate in the future, how ecosystems and societies in different regions of the World should adapt to these changes, what must policymakers do for the mitigation of that effect, the worldwide project within the Framework Convention on Climate Change was generated by the initiative of United Nations. Estonia is one of more than 150 countries, which signedmore » the Framework Convention on Climate Change at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. In 1994 a new project, Estonian Country Study was initiated within the US Country Studies Program. The project will help to compile the GHG inventory for Estonia, find contemporary trends to investigate the impact of climate change on the Estonian ecosystems and economy and to formulate national strategies for Estonia addressing to global climate change.« less

Undergraduate Research Experience in Ocean/Marine Science (URE-OMS) with African Student Component

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). RESULTS Temporal and Spatial Variations of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll a in Coastal Waters of...Duck, North Carolina [4] Climate change has affected the North Carolina coastal environments and coastal hazards have already taken place in the area...from geological materials (sands, dead and/or bleached corals ...etc) shifted by waves, tides, and currents moving sediments and eroding shorelines

Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove; Frank H. Koch

2010-01-01

Climate change will likely pose a severe threat to the viability of certain forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift to more favorable environments if they are to survive. Several forest tree species of the central and southern Appalachians may be at particular risk, since they occur in limited high-elevation ranges and/or...

Aboveground carbon in Quebec forests: stock quantification at the provincial scale and assessment of temperature, precipitation and edaphic properties effects on the potential stand-level stocking.

PubMed

Duchesne, Louis; Houle, Daniel; Ouimet, Rock; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Logan, Travis

2016-01-01

Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km(2) of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha(-1), which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec's managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041-2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec's forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests.

[Constructing climate. From classical climatology to modern climate research].

PubMed

Heymann, Matthias

2009-01-01

Both climate researchers and historians of climate science have conceived climate as a stable and well defined category. This article argues that such a conception is flawed. In the course of the 19th and 20th century the very concept of climate changed considerably. Scientists came up with different definitions and concepts of climate, which implied different understandings, interests, and research approaches. Understanding climate shifted from a timeless, spatial concept at the end of the 19th century to a spaceless, temporal concept at the end of the 20th. Climatologists in the 19th and early 20th centuries considered climate as a set of atmospheric characteristics associated with specific places or regions. In this context, while the weather was subject to change, climate remained largely stable. Of particular interest was the impact of climate on human beings and the environment. In modern climate research at the close of the 20th century, the concept of climate lost its temporal stability. Instead, climate change has become a core feature of the understanding of climate and a focus of research interests. Climate has also lost its immediate association with specific geographical places and become global. The interest is now focused on the impact of human beings on climate. The paper attempts to investigate these conceptual shifts and their origins and impacts in order to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the history of climate research.

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2007-01-01

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century

Treesearch

Anthony P. Bedel; Thomas L. Mote; Scott L. Goodrick

2013-01-01

Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of...

Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Bell, David M; Kwit, Matthew; Stine, Anne; Vierra, Ben; Zhu, Kai

2012-01-19

Anticipating how biodiversity will respond to climate change is challenged by the fact that climate variables affect individuals in competition with others, but interest lies at the scale of species and landscapes. By omitting the individual scale, models cannot accommodate the processes that determine future biodiversity. We demonstrate how individual-scale inference can be applied to the problem of anticipating vulnerability of species to climate. The approach places climate vulnerability in the context of competition for light and soil moisture. Sensitivities to climate and competition interactions aggregated from the individual tree scale provide estimates of which species are vulnerable to which variables in different habitats. Vulnerability is explored in terms of specific demographic responses (growth, fecundity and survival) and in terms of the synthetic response (the combination of demographic rates), termed climate tracking. These indices quantify risks for individuals in the context of their competitive environments. However, by aggregating in specific ways (over individuals, years, and other input variables), we provide ways to summarize and rank species in terms of their risks from climate change.

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

1991-01-01

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

2014-01-01

Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

EPA Science Matters Newsletter: Taking Action on Climate Change

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) emphasizes the foundational role of science in understanding global change and its impacts on the environment. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is an integral and important part of that effort

Predictors of Saudi nursing students' attitudes towards environment and sustainability in health care.

PubMed

Cruz, J P; Alshammari, F; Felicilda-Reynaldo, R F D

2018-02-09

This study aimed to investigate the predictors of Saudi nursing students' attitudes towards the environment and sustainability in health care. With rising temperature and decreasing annual rainfall, Saudi Arabia is threatened by the harmful effects of climate change on its population. In response to these threats, the Ministry of Health adapted sustainable development and environmental preservation in their National E-Health strategy. To implement these policies successfully, healthcare practitioners should be educated on how climate change could impact human health negatively. A secondary analysis of 280 questionnaires from baccalaureate nursing students of a university in Hail City, Saudi Arabia, was completed. The New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) Scale and Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey 2 (SANS-2) were used to investigate the predictors of student attitudes towards the environment and sustainable development in health care. The NEP score indicated moderate pro-environment attitudes, whereas the SANS-2 mean score showed very positive attitudes towards sustainability in health care. Learning about the environment and related issues in the nursing programme, raising climate change awareness and attending environment-related seminars and training positively influenced the environmental and sustainability attitudes of nursing students. Saudi nursing students moderately manifested pro-environment attitudes but exhibited extremely positive attitudes towards sustainability in health care. The results support the need to strengthen the education of nursing students about environmental and sustainability concepts and the inclusion of these topics in the nursing curricula. The study underscores the critical role of enriching the awareness of nursing students on environmental issues and concerns and sustainability in health care. The findings of this study can support the inclusion of course contents, which deal specifically with environmental health and sustainability practices, in the creation of new policies directed towards curricular revision. © 2018 International Council of Nurses.

CLANIMAE: Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on African Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verschuren, D.; André, L.; Mahy, G.; Cocquyt, C.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Gelorini, V.; Rumes, B.; Lebrun, J.; Bock, L.; Marchant, R.

2009-04-01

Global studies of historical land use focusing on the large-scale landscape change that can potentially affect global climate (via effects on surface albedo, aerosols, and the carbon cycle) have concluded that the impact of pre-colonial East African cultures on regional ecosystems was limited, due to very low mean population density. This contrasts with the paradigm in East African archaeology and paleoecology that the onset of anthropogenic deforestation started at least 2500 years ago, following the introduction of iron metallurgy by Bantu immigrants. This conflict highlights the present lack of real data on historical climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, which are eminently relevant to sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation in a future of continued population growth and global climate change. CLANIMAE responds to the urgent need of a correct long-term perspective to today's climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, by reconstructing simultaneously the histories of past climate change and of vegetation and water-quality changes over the last 2500 years, through multi-disciplinary analysis of dated lake-sediment records. The climate reconstructions integrate information on biological, geochemical and sedimentological indicators of past changes in the water balance of the study lakes, which cover the climatological gradient from (sub-)humid western Uganda to semi-arid eastern Kenya. Reconstruction of past terrestrial vegetation dynamics is based on analyses of fossil plant pollen and phytoliths, plus the fossil spores of fungi associated with the excrements of large domestic animals as indicators of lake use by pastoralists. The evolution of water quality through time is reconstructed using silicon isotopes in diatom algae as proxy indicator for past phytoplankton productivity, and paleoecological analyses of fossil diatoms and aquatic macrophytes, following calibration of diatom and macrophyte species distribution against lake trophic status and turbidity in the modern-day regional lake gradient. The integrated paleoecological research method of this project addresses the question of past climate-environment-human relationships at the time scale at which the relevant processes have actually occurred. This will allow us to 1) separate the influences of natural climate variability and human activity on East African ecosystems, 2) determine the exact timing and relative magnitude of indigenous (pre-20th century) anthropogenic land clearance compared to recent landscape alteration, 3) determine the severity of lake water-quality losses due to siltation and excess nutrient input directly linked to deforestation and agriculture, compared to those associated with natural ecosystem variability, and 4) assess the resilience of African ecosystems, and prospects for the restoration of disturbed ecosystems if human pressure were to be reversed.

Bioarchaeology of adaptation to a marginal environment in bronze age Western China.

PubMed

Berger, Elizabeth; Wang, Hui

2017-07-08

This study examines human adaptation to the 4000 BP climate change event, which is said to have increased the marginality of Inner Asian environments. We propose to define "marginal" environments not in relation to a specific economic activity (e.g., agriculture), but in relation to whether humans living there are physiologically stressed. Three sites in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu were studied, one from the early and two from the late Bronze Age (N = 125). The study includes three indicators of physiological stress: linear enamel hypoplasias (LEH); tibial periosteal lesions; and fertility. The early and late Bronze Age groups were compared to examine whether human physiological stress increased. The percent of individuals with LEH declined dramatically, indicating fewer growth disruptions. Tibial periosteal reactions also changed, from mostly active to mostly healing at the time of death, indicating that frailty declined. Fertility, which is sensitive to changes in population health and resource availability, did not change significantly. Counter to the dominant narrative of environmental deterioration and subsistence system collapse, the Bronze Age residents of the Hexi Corridor show no skeletal evidence that they suffered from resource shortages or struggled to adapt in the fluctuating climate that pertained after the 4000 BP climate event. In fact, this study found that people suffered from less frailty and fewer growth disruptions after the unstable climate had persisted for some time. Therefore, in human biological terms, the Hexi Corridor did not become more marginal for human habitation during the Bronze Age. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

PubMed

Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

2017-12-01

Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development for making decision under land use and climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-06-01

Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

1993-01-01

Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

[Climate change - physical and mental consequences].

PubMed

Bunz, Maxie; Mücke, Hans-Guido

2017-06-01

Climate change has already had a large influence on the human environmental system and directly or indirectly affects physical and mental health. Triggered by extreme meteorological conditions, for example, storms, floods, earth slides and heat periods, the direct consequences range from illnesses to serious accidents with injuries, or in extreme cases fatalities. Indirectly, a changed environment due to climate change affects, amongst other things, the cardiovascular system and respiratory tract, and can also cause allergies and infectious diseases. In addition, increasing confrontation with environmental impacts may cause negative psychological effects such as posttraumatic stress disorders and anxiety, but also aggression, distress and depressive symptoms. The extent and severity of the health consequences depend on individual pre-disposition, resilience, behaviour and adaptation.

ScienceToGo.org: Using 'Ozzie the Ostrich' to Build Local Partnerships around Climate Change Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.; Wilson, R.; Rabkin, D.; Thompson, S. R.

2015-12-01

How can an informal science learning project about climate change facilitate alliances among unlikely parties? We found a sweet spot of collaboration among private, public, and the non-profit sectors by borrowing strength and leveraging common interests. Using mass transit and out of home media, we created a diverse community around a learning campaign that starred an ostrich named "Ozzie." In 2013-14, ScienceToGo.org ran a series of 12 engaging posters and placards staring 'Ozzie the Ostrich' on the Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority's Red and Orange subway lines targeting a daily audience of 400,000+ riders. The curriculum was divided into three phases: reality, relevance, and hope. Phase I established the reality of climate change (3 months). Phase II helped T-riders appreciate the relevancy of climate change to the local environment of Boston (4 months). Phase III engaged Bostonians with an array of hopeful examples of how people, companies, and organizations are effectively creating a more sustainable future (5 months). The focus of this presentation will be on the relationships that emerged from the work that went into Phase III. Engaging urban populations with climate change science is a difficult challenge since cities seem so removed from the 'natural environment.' However, mass transit provides an inherent means of communicating environmental messages with a cross section of the urban population. Our team felt that any messaging curriculum for an urban subway system must complement the scary reality of a changing climate with hopeful solutions that exist for dealing with it effectively. Urban areas such as Boston must develop adaptation and mitigation strategies that will help them not only survive, but thrive in a changing environment. Making our audience aware of the amazing efforts in this area was the goal of Phase III. There were three parts to our efforts: the signage on the subway, above ground ostriches, and social events. During the presentation, we will describe ScienceToGo.org and explore the various theories that help explain why Phase III was successful at building alliances among more than three dozen diverse urban partners. Finally, we will conclude with some recommendations for how this work could improve and inform other urban informal science learning initiatives.

2700 years of Mediterranean environmental change in central Italy: a synthesis of sedimentary and cultural records to interpret past impacts of climate on society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mensing, Scott A.; Tunno, Irene; Sagnotti, Leonardo; Florindo, Fabio; Noble, Paula; Archer, Claire; Zimmerman, Susan; Pavón-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Cifani, Gabriele; Passigli, Susanna; Piovesan, Gianluca

2015-05-01

Abrupt climate change in the past is thought to have disrupted societies by accelerating environmental degradation, potentially leading to cultural collapse. Linking climate change directly to societal disruption is challenging because socioeconomic factors also play a large role, with climate being secondary or sometimes inconsequential. Combining paleolimnologic, historical, and archaeological methods provides for a more secure basis for interpreting the past impacts of climate on society. We present pollen, non-pollen palynomorph, geochemical, paleomagnetic and sedimentary data from a high-resolution 2700 yr lake sediment core from central Italy and compare these data with local historical documents and archeological surveys to reconstruct a record of environmental change in relation to socioeconomic history and climatic fluctuations. Here we document cases in which environmental change is strongly linked to changes in local land management practices in the absence of clear climatic change, as well as examples when climate change appears to have been a strong catalyst that resulted in significant environmental change that impacted local communities. During the Imperial Roman period, despite a long period of stable, mild climate, and a large urban population in nearby Rome, our site shows only limited evidence for environmental degradation. Warm and mild climate during the Medieval Warm period, on the other hand, led to widespread deforestation and erosion. The ability of the Romans to utilize imported resources through an extensive trade network may have allowed for preservation of the environment near the Roman capital, whereas during medieval time, the need to rely on local resources led to environmental degradation. Cool wet climate during the Little Ice Age led to a breakdown in local land use practices, widespread land abandonment and rapid reforestation. Our results present a high-resolution regional case study that explores the effect of climate change on society for an under-documented region of Europe.

An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, K. S.

2009-09-01

National economy and life of millions of poor largely related to climate sensitive natural resource base and a densely populated 7500 Km long low-lying coastline make India highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Significant changes in the amount, intensity and seasonality of rainfall and extremes in temperature observed in different states are serious challenges to the securities in food, water and energy. Vagaries in monsoons and associated setbacks in agriculture that represents 35% GDP affect economy and rural life, leading to social issues like migration and spread of terrorism. Impact on forest affects the biodiversity, economy and life of tribals. Water availability in certain states has been falling sharply due to the changes in the amount as well as the seasonality of rainfall. Increase in rainfall intensity erodes topsoil in the Western Ghats Mountain and reduces the streamflow and reservoir capacity. Retreat of the Himalayan glaciers may add to the severity of hydrological extremes in the entire north India in the coming years. Irregular onset of monsoon and change in seasonality have already affected the plant biodiversity in the southern state of Kerala. Some seasonal plants became extinct because of the prolonged dry season. Almost all parts of India are increasingly becoming prone to floods or droughts. Drylands are potentially threatened by desertification. Changes in the frequency, intensity and track of cyclones and rising sea level are of serious concern in the coastal zones. Decreasing trend in fish catch in the southern coasts is linked to the changes in coastal circulation, SST and upwelling patterns. Coral environments also suffer from this. Cold waves and heat waves are becoming severe, extending to new regions and resulting in casualties. New viruses and vectors spread fatal deceases, expanding geographical extent. Climate change is likely to retard the present economic growth, because of the massive investment required for adaptation, mitigation and post-hazard recovery and resettlement measures. Providing basic necessities such as water, food and power, maintaining public health, implementing protective measures in the coastal zones and modifications in the urban infrastructure, especially in the coastal megacities become expensive. Impact of extremes on rails, roads and building are also becoming a major issue in the coastal zones and urban centres. Industrial sector is facing a threat from the falling reliable supply of water and power. However, procedure for the implementation of the strategies to mitigate the climate change impact and of the policy for the adaptation to climate change is slow. There are several hurdles for this, including various ecological, socio-economic, technical and political issues, alterations of the physical environment, inability of certain habitats and species to adapt to a new environment, abject poverty, lack of awareness, and the inefficient administrative mechanism. A comprehensive assessment of the shifts in regional climate and the impact of climate change on different facets of life in India, and of the current strategies and polices to face such challenges is made in this study. Suggestions for the improvement of the climate policy and adaptation strategy have been provided.

Climate and land-use change in wetlands: A dedication

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2017-01-01

Future climate and land-use change may wreak havoc on wetlands, with the potential to erode their values as harbors for biota and providers of human services. Wetlands are important to protect, particularly because these provide a variety of ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, water purification, flood storage, and storm protection (Mitsch, Bernal, and Hernandez 2015). Without healthy wetlands, future generations may become increasingly less in harmony with the sustainability of the Earth. To this end, the thematic feature on climate and land-use change in wetlands explores the critical role of wetlands in the overall health and well-being of humans and our planet. Our special feature contributes to the understanding of the idea that the health of natural ecosystems and humans are linked and potentially stressed by climate change and land-use change (Horton and Lo 2015; McDonald 2015). In particular, this special issue considers the important role of wetlands in the environment, and how land-use and environmental change might affect them in the future.

"The upper limits of vegetation on Mauna Loa, Hawaii": a 50th-anniversary reassessment.

PubMed

Juvik, James O; Rodomsky, Brett T; Price, Jonathan P; Hansen, Eric W; Kueffer, Christoph

2011-02-01

In January 1958, a survey of alpine flora was conducted along a recently constructed access road across the upper volcanic slopes of Mauna Loa, Hawaii (2525-3397 m). Only five native Hawaiian species were encountered on sparsely vegetated historic and prehistoric lava flows adjacent to the roadway. A resurvey of roadside flora in 2008 yielded a more than fourfold increase to 22 species, including nine native species not previously recorded. Eight new alien species have now invaded this alpine environment, although exclusively limited to a few individuals in ruderal habitat along the roadway. Alternative explanations for species invasion and altitudinal change over the past 50 years are evaluated: (1) changes related to continuing primary succession on ameliorating (weathering) young lava substrates; (2) local climate change; and (3) road improvements and increased vehicular access which promote enhanced car-borne dispersal of alien species derived from the expanding pool of potential colonizers naturalized on the island in recent decades. Unlike alpine environments in temperate latitudes, the energy component (warming) in climate change on Mauna Loa does not appear to be the unequivocal driver of plant invasion and range extension. Warming may be offset by other climate change factors including rainfall and evapotranspiration.

Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

2013-04-01

The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory data analysis the approaches on climate time series, trend analysis and extreme events analysis are explained. Tools to describe relations within the data sets and significance tests further corroborate this. Within the weekly exercises that have to be prepared at home, the students work with self-selected climate data sets and apply the learned methods. The presentation and discussion of intermediate results by the students is as much part of the exercises as the illustration of possible methodological procedures by the teacher using exemplary data sets. The total time expenditure of the course is 270 hours with 90 attendance hours. The remainder consists of individual studies, e.g., preparation of discussions and presentations, statistical data analysis, and scientific writing. Different forms of examination are applied including written or oral examination, scientific report, presentation and portfolio work.

Himalayan Glacier Disasters: Changing Geomorphological Process Landscape, or a Changing Human Landscape?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, J. S.; Leonard, G. J.

2012-12-01

Recent deadly glacier-related disasters in the Himalayan-Karakoram region—the Attabad landslide and formation of glacier meltwater-fed Lake Gojal, the Gayari ice avalanche/landslide and burial of a Pakistani Army base, and the Seti River outburst disaster—beg the question of whether disasters may be on the rise. Science is not yet ready to offer a full answer, but it is an important one to resolve, because future land-use planning and mitigative measures may be affected. Natural disasters have been commonplace throughout the long human history of the Himalaya-Karakoram region. The broad outlines of the changing natural process, natural hazard, and risk environment may be established. The risk is rising rapidly primarily due to increased human presence in these once-forbidding mountains. Risk is shifting also because climate change is modifying the land surface process system. Rapidly changing glaciers cause a destabilization of the landscape. Glaciers are fundamentally a mestastable phenomenon put in motion by the high gravitational potential energies of the components of glacial systems: snow, ice, water, and debris. Any change in the climate-land-glacier system MUST result in a change in the land process system, with hazards and risks rising or falling or changing location or type. Most commonly, glacier-related disasters include a natural process cascade; as the factors affecting land surface processes and the frequency or magnitude of any one of the elements of the process cascade changes, the net hazard and risk to people changes. Otherwise similar glaciers and glacierized basins have differing sets of hazardous conditions and processes depending on whether the glacier is stable, advancing or retreating. The consequences for the overall risk to people will depend on the details of a specific glacier near a particular village or bridge or railroad. One size does not fit all. Generalizations about trends in natural hazards as related to climate change impacts on glaciers are possible, but any particular locality may buck the general trends. Hence, climate change is affecting the natural process, natural hazard, and human risk environment. However, changing glaciers exhibit a montage of different response behaviors, so the natural hazards and shifting hazards are also a montage. Overwhelmingly, changing land use has the largest impact on the natural hazard and risk environment. We will take recent examples of natural disasters--using both remote sensing data and field data-- and discuss how changing climate, the changing cryosphere, and changing human relationships to the land in Himalayan realms may have contributed to or altered those events.

Communicating for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from a Case Study with Nature-Based Tour Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Sparrow, E. B.; Pettit, E. C.; Trainor, S. F.; Taylor, K.

2014-12-01

Increasing temperatures are projected to have a positive effect on the length of Alaska's tourism season, but the natural attractions that tourism relies on, such as glaciers, wildlife, fish, or other natural resources, may change. In order to continue to derive benefits from these resources, nature-based tour operators may have to adapt to these changes, and communication is an essential, but poorly understood, component of the climate change adaptation process. The goal of this study was to determine how to provide useful climate change information to nature-based tour operators by answering the following questions: 1. What environmental changes do nature-based tour operators perceive? 2. How are nature-based tour operators responding to climate and environmental change? 3. What climate change information do nature-based tour operators need? To answer these questions, twenty-four nature-based tour operators representing 20 different small and medium sized businesses in Juneau, Alaska were interviewed. The results show that many of Juneau's nature-based tour operators are observing, responding to, and in some cases, actively planning for further changes in the environment. The types of responses tended to vary depending on the participants' certainty in climate change and the perceived risks to their organization. Using these two factors, this study proposes a framework to classify climate change responses for the purpose of generating meaningful information and communication processes that promote adaptation and build adaptive capacity. During the course of the study, several other valuable lessons were learned about communicating about adaptation. The results of this study demonstrate that science communication research has an important place in the practice of promoting and fostering climate change adaptation. While the focus of this study was tour operators, the lessons learned may be valuable to other organizations striving to engage unique groups in climate change adaptation planning efforts and to social scientists trying to understanding of the role of communication in climate change adaptation.

Novel competitors shape species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Alexander, Jake M; Diez, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan M

2015-09-24

Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for forecasting the future dynamics and distribution of pests, diseases and biological diversity. Although ecologists have long acknowledged species' direct physiological and demographic responses to climate, more recent work suggests that these direct responses can be overwhelmed by indirect effects mediated via other interacting community members. Theory suggests that some of the most dramatic impacts of community change will probably arise through the assembly of novel species combinations after asynchronous migrations with climate. Empirical tests of this prediction are rare, as existing work focuses on the effects of changing interactions between competitors that co-occur today. To explore how species' responses to climate warming depend on how their competitors migrate to track climate, we transplanted alpine plant species and intact plant communities along a climate gradient in the Swiss Alps. Here we show that when alpine plants were transplanted to warmer climates to simulate a migration failure, their performance was strongly reduced by novel competitors that could migrate upwards from lower elevation; these effects generally exceeded the impact of warming on competition with current competitors. In contrast, when we grew the focal plants under their current climate to simulate climate tracking, a shift in the competitive environment to novel high-elevation competitors had little to no effect. This asymmetry in the importance of changing competitor identity at the leading versus trailing range edges is best explained by the degree of functional similarity between current and novel competitors. We conclude that accounting for novel competitive interactions may be essential to predict species' responses to climate change accurately.

Is U.S. climatic diversity well represented within the existing federal protection network?

Treesearch

Enric Batllori; Carol Miller; Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Max A. Moritz

2014-01-01

Establishing protection networks to ensure that biodiversity and associated ecosystem services persist under changing environments is a major challenge for conservation planning. The potential consequences of altered climates for the structure and function of ecosystems necessitates new and complementary approaches be incorporated into traditional conservation plans....

EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY OF REGIONAL AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

The United States has established a series of standards for criteria and other air pollutants to safeguard air quality to protect human health and the environment. The Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project, a collaborative research effort involving multiple Fede...

Energy, environment and climate assessment using the MARKAL energy system model

EPA Science Inventory

As part of EPA ORD’s efforts to develop an understanding of the potential environmental impacts of future changes in energy use, the Energy and Climate Assessment Team has developed a database representation of the U.S. energy system for use with the MARKet ALlocation (MARK...

Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood). Impacts will be evaluated through a combination of techniques ranging from quantitative analyses through to expert judge- ment. Throughout the project, a continuing dialogue with stakeholders and end-users will be maintained.

Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moosavi, S. C.

2011-12-01

The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of hurricanes poses to this region specifically and as a model for similar coastal regions around the world. The small seminar format is an excellent approach to target a specific topic and audience for examining global climate change on the ground where students stand. The Grand Isle Project began as a service learning option for students in a large introductory physical geology course. The initial goal of the project was to expose general education students to a rapidly eroding and subsiding barrier island whose loss threatens national oil and gas infrastructure and storm surge defenses of New Orleans. The battle fought by the Army Corps of Engineers and local officials to defend the beach on Grand Isle against the ravages of 2 hurricanes and the BP oil spill brought together issues of human manipulation of river/sediment systems, continued energy dependence on fossil fuels, changes to the severity of natural weather events and the inevitable natural subsidence demonstrating the complexity of global change in a specific place familiar to all members of the class. A subset of these students were afforded the opportunity to engage in undergraduate research, contributing to decisions guiding the clean up and preservation of this portion of the coast.

New chairman takes helm at Climate Change Panel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

An Indian industrial engineer and economist who supports the Kyoto Protocol, and who has sharply criticized the administration of George W. Bush on the climate change issue for not doing enough to curb greenhouse gas emissions, won the first-ever contested election for chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during a meeting on 19 April.Rajendra Pachauri is the first representative from a developing country to chair the IPCC, a panel of about 2,500 experts on a wide range of areas related to climate change. The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. In total, the IPCC currently includes 192 member states. Although the bulk of the IPCC's work is conducted by three technical working groups, the chairman plays a key role in facilitating the overall process of the IPCC, organizing the scientific debate within the IPCC, and serving as chief spokesman.

Simulation and Optimization Methods for Assessing the Impact of Aviation Operations on the Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Chen, Neil; Ng, Hok K.

2010-01-01

There is increased awareness of anthropogenic factors affecting climate change and urgency to slow the negative impact. Greenhouse gases, oxides of Nitrogen and contrails resulting from aviation affect the climate in different and uncertain ways. This paper develops a flexible simulation and optimization software architecture to study the trade-offs involved in reducing emissions. The software environment is used to conduct analysis of two approaches for avoiding contrails using the concepts of contrail frequency index and optimal avoidance trajectories.

A Large Scale Study of the Assessment of the Social Environment of Middle and Secondary Schools: The Validity and Utility of Teachers' Ratings of School Climate, Cultural Pluralism, and Safety Problems for Understanding School Effects and School Improvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brand, Stephen; Felner, Robert D.; Seitsinger, Anne; Burns, Amy; Bolton, Natalie

2008-01-01

Due to changes in state and federal policies, as well as logistical and fiscal limitations, researchers must increasingly rely on teachers' reports of school climate dimensions in order to investigate the developmental impact of these dimensions, and to evaluate efforts to enhance the impact of school environments on the development of young…

Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

2015-01-01

Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

Climate Change Resilience in the Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kershaw, Tristan

2017-12-01

Between 1930 and 2030, the world's population will have flipped from 70% rural to 70% urban. While much has been written about the impacts of climate change and mitigation of its effects on individual buildings or infrastructure, this book is one of the first to focus on the resilience of whole cities. It covers a broad range of area-wide disaster-level impacts, including drought, heatwaves, flooding, storms and air quality, which many of our cities are ill-adapted to cope with, and unless we can increase the resilience of our urban areas then much of our current building stock may become uninhabitable. Climate Resilience in Urban Environments provides a detailed overview of the risks for urban areas, including those risks to human health as well as to building integrity, the physical processes involved, and presents key information in which way the risks can be reduced and urban areas made more resilient.

Geographical Applications of Remote Sensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weng, Qihao; Zhou, Yuyu; Quattrochi, Dale

2013-02-28

Data and Information derived through Earth observation technology have been extensively used in geographic studies, such as in the areas of natural and human environments, resources, land use and land cover, human-environment interactions, and socioeconomic issues. Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC), affecting biodiversity, climate change, watershed hydrology, and other surface processes, is one of the most important research topics in geography.

Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates.

PubMed

Gilg, Olivier; Kovacs, Kit M; Aars, Jon; Fort, Jérôme; Gauthier, Gilles; Grémillet, David; Ims, Rolf A; Meltofte, Hans; Moreau, Jérôme; Post, Eric; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Yannic, Glenn; Bollache, Loïc

2012-02-01

Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via immigration from the South, many Arctic vertebrates are expected to become increasingly threatened during this century. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

2012-04-01

Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising incomes. The scale of the impacts and their direction depend to some extent on (re)insurer responses to the challenges of climate change. We outline five actions that could pave the way for future opportunities in the industry. Authors of the paper: Ranger, Nicola (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK) and Surminski, Swenja (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK)

Recent climate warming drives ecological change in a remote high-Arctic lake.

PubMed

Woelders, Lineke; Lenaerts, Jan T M; Hagemans, Kimberley; Akkerman, Keechy; van Hoof, Thomas B; Hoek, Wim Z

2018-05-01

The high Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth, evidenced by extreme near-surface temperature increase in non-summer seasons, recent rapid sea ice decline and permafrost melting since the early 1990's. Understanding the impact of climate change on the sensitive Arctic ecosystem to climate change has so far been hampered by the lack of time-constrained, high-resolution records and by implicit climate data analyses. Here, we show evidence of sharp growth in freshwater green algae as well as distinct diatom assemblage changes since ~1995, retrieved from a high-Arctic (80 °N) lake sediment record on Barentsøya (Svalbard). The proxy record approaches an annual to biennial resolution. Combining remote sensing and in-situ climate data, we show that this ecological change is concurrent with, and is likely driven by, the atmospheric warming and a sharp decrease in the length of the sea ice covered period in the region, and throughout the Arctic. Moreover, this research demonstrates the value of palaeoclimate records in pristine environments for supporting and extending instrumental records. Our results reinforce and extend observations from other sites that the high Arctic has already undergone rapid ecological changes in response to on-going climate change, and will continue to do so in the future.

(Climate) Change in young people's minds - From categories towards interconnections between the anthroposphere and natural sphere.

PubMed

Körfgen, Annemarie; Keller, Lars; Kuthe, Alina; Oberrauch, Anna; Stötter, Hans

2017-02-15

The grand challenges of the 21st century will increasingly require societies to reconsider the pathways taken thus far. Engagement with climate change is of ever-growing importance to young people. They will be confronted with the effects of climate change throughout their entire lives and, as future decision-makers, they will vitally shape societal developments. Education will thus play a crucial role in the transformation to a sustainable society. In terms of awareness-raising, an important first step in preparing young people for the challenges of the 21st century is to understand what content is connected with climate change. As complex challenges, such as climate change, demand ways of thinking that go beyond categories, interconnections between the anthroposphere and the natural sphere have to be taken into consideration. This study provides an insight into the questions and topics young people develop whilst becoming involved in climate change in an in-school learning setting and in an out-of-school learning setting (a high mountain environment). The analysis focuses on the question of in which spheres students predominantly make their thematic choices and how far the interconnections between different spheres are formed. Our results show that the choice of the learning setting influences the topics students connect with climate change. Interconnections between sub-spheres of the anthroposphere and natural sphere are made only occasionally. These findings serve as a basis for reconsidering the content and foundation of climate change communication with young people. We recommend that climate change educational programmes should include phases that allow the following: a) involvement with climate change issues related to single spheres in the first phase, and b) consideration of the interconnections between spheres when becoming involved with climate change issues in the second phase. As the educational setting can considerably influence the focus of the learning process, it should be chosen thoughtfully. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

2017-12-01

Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements on environment for heatwave alleviation and response can be done. In particular, if vulnerable regions of heatwave can be identified and managed in advance, the study results are expected to be utilized as a basis of policy utilization in local communities accordingly.

Past climates primary productivity changes in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, P. K.; Kageyama, M.; Bopp, L.; Beaufort, L.; Braconnot, P.; Bassinot, F. C.

2016-02-01

Organic climate recorders, e.g., coccolithophorids and foraminifera, are widely used to reconstruct past climate conditions, such as the Indian monsoon intensity and variability, since they are sensitive to climate-induced fluctuations of their environment. In the Indian Ocean, it is commonly accepted that a stronger summer monsoon will enhance productivity in the Arabian Sea and therefore the amount of organisms in a sediment core should reflect monsoon intensity. In this study, we use the coupled Earth System Model IPSLCM5A, which has a biogeochemical component PISCES that simulates primary production. We use 8 climate simulations of the IPSL-CM5A model, from -72kyr BP climate conditions to a preindustrial state. Our simulations have different orbital forcing (precession, obliquity and eccentricity), greenhouse gas concentrations as well as different ice sheet covers. The objective of this work is to characterize the mechanisms behind the changes in primary productivity between the different time periods. Our model shows that in climates where monsoon is enhanced (due to changes in precession) we do not necessarily see an increase in summer productivity in the Arabian Sea, and inversely. It seems that the glacial-interglacial state of the simulation is important in driving productivity changes in this region of the world. We try to explain the changes in productivity in the Arabian Sea with the local climate and then to link the changes in local climate to large scale atmospheric forcing and commonly used Indian monsoon definitions.

The Calibration and Characterization of Earth Remote Sensing and Environmental Monitoring Instruments. Chapter 10

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, James J.; Johnson, B. Carol; Barnes, Robert A.

2005-01-01

The use of remote sensing instruments on orbiting satellite platforms in the study of Earth Science and environmental monitoring was officially inaugurated with the April 1, 1960 launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) [1]. The first TIROS accommodated two television cameras and operated for only 78 days. However, the TIROS program, in providing in excess of 22,000 pictures of the Earth, achieved its primary goal of providing Earth images from a satellite platform to aid in identifying and monitoring meteorological processes. This marked the beginning of what is now over four decades of Earth observations from satellite platforms. reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth using instruments on satellite platforms. These measurements are input to climate models, and the model results are analyzed in an effort to detect short and long-term changes and trends in the Earth's climate and environment, to identify the cause of those changes, and to predict or influence future changes. Examples of short-term climate change events include the periodic appearance of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean [2] and the spectacular eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the Philippine island of Luzon in 1991. Examples of long term climate change events, which are more subtle to detect, include the destruction of coral reefs, the disappearance of glaciers, and global warming. Climatic variability can be both large and small scale and can be caused by natural or anthropogenic processes. The periodic El Nino event is an example of a natural process which induces significant climatic variability over a wide range of the Earth. A classic example of a large scale anthropogenic influence on climate is the well-documented rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide occurring since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [3]. An example of the study of a small-scale anthropogenic influence in climate variability is the Atlanta Land-use Analysis Temperature and Air-quality (ATLANTA) project [4]. This project has found that the replacement of trees and vegetation with concrete and asphalt in Atlanta, Georgia, and its environs has created a microclimate capable of producing wind and thunderstorms. A key objective of climate research is to be able to distinguish the natural versus human roles in climate change and to clearly communicate those findings to those who shape and direct environmental policy.

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

Climate Change Adaptation - Challenges and Opportunities

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

Humans have been adapting to the vagaries of weather for millennia, sometimes successfully sometimes not. Today, the myriad of important federal laws that regulate the impacts of human activity in our natural environment not only complicates plans for climate change adaptation, but also act as a strong justification for proactive planning, engagement and action. The challenge of adaptation will result in increased opportunities for more effective interaction with other federal agencies, communities and scientific organizations to better

Environmental Engineering and Ecological Baseline Investigations along the Yukon River-Prudhoe Bay Haul Road.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

the past when these ties. zones were thought to have shifted in response In this study 21 maps (scale 1:6,000) of repre- to climatic changes . sentative...Alaska Grasses Roads Climate Permafrost Soil erosion Drainage Pipelines Vegetation Environmental engineering Restoration Erosion control Revegetation 20...of changes in the environment associated with the road, 3) documentation of flora and vegetation along the 577-km-long transect, 4) methodologies for

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

PubMed

Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-12-01

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.