Sample records for environmental simulation model

  1. On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farmer, William H.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-01-01

    Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

  2. Code modernization and modularization of APEX and SWAT watershed simulation models

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and APEX (Agricultural Policy / Environmental eXtender) are respectively large and small watershed simulation models derived from EPIC Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), a field-scale agroecology simulation model. All three models are coded in FORTRAN an...

  3. Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

    PubMed

    Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

    2015-06-01

    Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of pricing due to greater susceptibility to climate vagaries. The livelihood and poverty results highlight the importance of the holistic consideration of the human-nature system and the careful selection of poverty indicators. Although the simulation model at this stage contains the minimum elements required to simulate the complexity of farmer livelihood interactions in coastal Bangladesh, the crop and socio-economic findings compare well with expected behaviours. The presented integrated model is the first step to develop a holistic, transferable analytic method and tool for coastal Bangladesh.

  4. Field Demonstration and Validation of TREECS and CTS for the Risk Assessment of Contaminants on Department of Defense Ranges

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-06-01

    Chemical Transformation Simulator (CTS) was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to provide physicochemical properties of complex...Site Model CTS Chemical Transformation Simulator developed by EPA D4EM Data for Environmental Modeling Demo Demolition area DNAN 2,4...U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), was the technical point-of-contact for the Contaminant Transformation Simulator (CTS) that was

  5. SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacques, Diederik

    2017-04-01

    As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different environmental and geo-engineering applications. SeSBench will organize new workshops to add new benchmarks in a new special issue. Steefel, C. I., et al. (2015). "Reactive transport codes for subsurface environmental simulation." Computational Geosciences 19: 445-478.

  6. The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model.

    PubMed

    Fabian, M Patricia; Stout, Natasha K; Adamkiewicz, Gary; Geggel, Amelia; Ren, Cizao; Sandel, Megan; Levy, Jonathan I

    2012-09-18

    In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%), which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens), medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on asthma outcomes (symptom-days, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits). The model can be used to evaluate building interventions and green building construction practices on pollutant concentrations, energy savings, and asthma healthcare utilization costs, and demonstrates the value of a simulation approach for studying complex diseases such as asthma.

  7. The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. Methods We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%), which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Results Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. Conclusions We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens), medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on asthma outcomes (symptom-days, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits). The model can be used to evaluate building interventions and green building construction practices on pollutant concentrations, energy savings, and asthma healthcare utilization costs, and demonstrates the value of a simulation approach for studying complex diseases such as asthma. PMID:22989068

  8. Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Neil

    2011-01-01

    There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

  9. Construction of Interaction Layer on Socio-Environmental Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torii, Daisuke; Ishida, Toru

    In this study, we propose a method to construct a system based on a legacy socio-environmental simulator which enables to design more realistic interaction models in socio-environmetal simulations. First, to provide a computational model suitable for agent interactions, an interaction layer is constructed and connected from outside of a legacy socio-environmental simulator. Next, to configure the agents interacting ability, connection description for controlling the flow of information in the connection area is provided. As a concrete example, we realized an interaction layer by Q which is a scenario description language and connected it to CORMAS, a socio-envirionmental simulator. Finally, we discuss the capability of our method, using the system, in the Fire-Fighter domain.

  10. 76 FR 69769 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-09

    ... assessments of site specific, generic, and process-oriented multimedia environmental models as they pertain to human and environmental health risk assessment. Multimedia model development and simulation supports...

  11. A Model Supported Interactive Virtual Environment for Natural Resource Sharing in Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barbalios, N.; Ioannidou, I.; Tzionas, P.; Paraskeuopoulos, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a realistic 3D model supported virtual environment for environmental education, that highlights the importance of water resource sharing by focusing on the tragedy of the commons dilemma. The proposed virtual environment entails simulations that are controlled by a multi-agent simulation model of a real ecosystem consisting…

  12. AN ENVIRONMENTAL SIMULATION MODEL FOR TRANSPORT AND FATE OF MERCURY IN SMALL RURAL CATCHMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The development of an extensively modified version of the environmental model GLEAMS to simulate fate and transport of mercury in small catchments is presented. Methods for parameter estimation are proposed and in some cases simple relationships for mercury processes are derived....

  13. Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, S.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2013-03-01

    This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environ- mental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy,more » rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government.« less

  14. Applicability of land use models for the Houston area test site

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petersburg, R. K.; Bradford, L. H.

    1973-01-01

    Descriptions of land use models are presented which were considered for their applicability to the Houston Area Test Site. These models are representative both of the prevailing theories of land use dynamics and of basic approaches to simulation. The models considered are: a model of metropolis, land use simulation model, emperic land use forecasting model, a probabilistic model for residential growth, and the regional environmental management allocation process. Sources of environmental/resource information are listed.

  15. Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender simulation of three adjacent row-crop watersheds in the claypan region

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model can simulate crop yields, and pollutant loadings in whole farms or small watersheds with variety of management practices. The study objectives were to identify sensitive parameters and parameterize, calibrate and validate the APEX model fo...

  16. Use of the Chemical Transformation Simulator as a Parameterization Tool for Modeling the Environmental Fate of Organic Chemicals and their Transformation Products

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Chemical Transformation Simulator is a web-based system for predicting transformation pathways and physicochemical properties of organic chemicals. Role in Environmental Modeling • Screening tool for identifying likely transformation products in the environment • Parameteri...

  17. APEX simulation: environmental benefits of agroforestry and grass buffers on corn-soybean watersheds

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model has the ability to simulate the effects of vegetative filter strips on runoff and pollutant loadings from agricultural watersheds. The objectives of this study were to calibrate and validate the APEX model for three adjacent watersheds and...

  18. A robust and flexible Geospatial Modeling Interface (GMI) for environmental model deployment and evaluation

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This paper provides an overview of the GMI (Geospatial Modeling Interface) simulation framework for environmental model deployment and assessment. GMI currently provides access to multiple environmental models including AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W), Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis 2 (NLEA...

  19. New parsimonious simulation methods and tools to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations

    PubMed Central

    Antle, John M.; Stoorvogel, Jetse J.; Valdivia, Roberto O.

    2014-01-01

    This article presents conceptual and empirical foundations for new parsimonious simulation models that are being used to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations. The conceptual framework integrates key features of the biophysical and economic processes on which the farming systems are based. The approach represents a methodological advance by coupling important behavioural processes, for example, self-selection in adaptive responses to technological and environmental change, with aggregate processes, such as changes in market supply and demand conditions or environmental conditions as climate. Suitable biophysical and economic data are a critical limiting factor in modelling these complex systems, particularly for the characterization of out-of-sample counterfactuals in ex ante analyses. Parsimonious, population-based simulation methods are described that exploit available observational, experimental, modelled and expert data. The analysis makes use of a new scenario design concept called representative agricultural pathways. A case study illustrates how these methods can be used to assess food and environmental security. The concluding section addresses generalizations of parametric forms and linkages of regional models to global models. PMID:24535388

  20. New parsimonious simulation methods and tools to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations.

    PubMed

    Antle, John M; Stoorvogel, Jetse J; Valdivia, Roberto O

    2014-04-05

    This article presents conceptual and empirical foundations for new parsimonious simulation models that are being used to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations. The conceptual framework integrates key features of the biophysical and economic processes on which the farming systems are based. The approach represents a methodological advance by coupling important behavioural processes, for example, self-selection in adaptive responses to technological and environmental change, with aggregate processes, such as changes in market supply and demand conditions or environmental conditions as climate. Suitable biophysical and economic data are a critical limiting factor in modelling these complex systems, particularly for the characterization of out-of-sample counterfactuals in ex ante analyses. Parsimonious, population-based simulation methods are described that exploit available observational, experimental, modelled and expert data. The analysis makes use of a new scenario design concept called representative agricultural pathways. A case study illustrates how these methods can be used to assess food and environmental security. The concluding section addresses generalizations of parametric forms and linkages of regional models to global models.

  1. Dealing with Environmental Issues: The Use of Simulation. Environmental Education Occasional Paper No. 5.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patton, William E.; Wilen, William W.

    The paper provides a rationale for using a decision-making model in teaching environmental issues, outlines specific steps in creating a simulation, and illustrates its use in the classroom. The objectives of environmental education are to provide learning opportunities for students to know, think, choose, and act regarding pervasive social issues…

  2. LAI (in situ, simulated, Landsat-derived, and MODIS): A comparison within an Oak-Hickory Forest Complex in southwestern Virginia, USA.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Sciences and Atmospheric Modeling Analysis Divisions are investigating the viability of simulated (i.e., ‘modeled’) leaf area index (LAI) inputs into various regional and local scale air quality models. Satellite L...

  3. Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun

    2017-09-01

    Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.

  4. Development of a computer-simulation model for a plant-nematode system.

    PubMed

    Ferris, H

    1976-07-01

    A computer-simulation model (MELSIM) of a Meloidogyne-grapevine system is developed. The objective is to attempt a holistic approach to the study of nematode population dynamics by using experimental data from controlled environmental conditions. A simulator with predictive ability would be useful in considering pest management alternatives and in teaching. Rates of flow and interaction between the components of the system are governed by environmental conditions. Equations for these rates are determined by fitting curves to data from controlled environment studies. Development of the model and trial simulations have revealed deficiencies in understanding of the system and identified areas where further research is necessary.

  5. A synthetic method for atmospheric diffusion simulation and environmental impact assessment of accidental pollution in the chemical industry in a WEBGIS context.

    PubMed

    Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

    2014-09-05

    The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents.

  6. A Synthetic Method for Atmospheric Diffusion Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment of Accidental Pollution in the Chemical Industry in a WEBGIS Context

    PubMed Central

    Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

    2014-01-01

    The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents. PMID:25198686

  7. Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steyaert, Louis T.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Reed, Bradley C.

    1993-01-01

    Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

  8. Hydrodynamics and water quality models applied to Sepetiba Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cunha, Cynara de L. da N.; Rosman, Paulo C. C.; Ferreira, Aldo Pacheco; Carlos do Nascimento Monteiro, Teófilo

    2006-10-01

    A coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model is used to simulate the pollution in Sepetiba Bay due to sewage effluent. Sepetiba Bay has a complicated geometry and bottom topography, and is located on the Brazilian coast near Rio de Janeiro. In the simulation, the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) are used as indicators for the presence of organic matter in the body of water, and as parameters for evaluating the environmental pollution of the eastern part of Sepetiba Bay. Effluent sources in the model are taken from DO and BOD field measurements. The simulation results are consistent with field observations and demonstrate that the model has been correctly calibrated. The model is suitable for evaluating the environmental impact of sewage effluent on Sepetiba Bay from river inflows, assessing the feasibility of different treatment schemes, and developing specific monitoring activities. This approach has general applicability for environmental assessment of complicated coastal bays.

  9. The AgESGUI geospatial simulation system for environmental model application and evaluation

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Practical decision making in spatially-distributed environmental assessment and management is increasingly being based on environmental process-based models linked to geographical information systems (GIS). Furthermore, powerful computers and Internet-accessible assessment tools are providing much g...

  10. Simulation of atmospheric oxidation capacity in Houston, Texas

    EPA Science Inventory

    Air quality model simulations are performed and evaluated for Houston using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The simulations use two different emissions estimates: the EPA 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality ...

  11. Using biophysical models to manage nitrogen pollution from agricultural sources: Utopic or realistic approach for non-scientist users? Case study of a drinking water catchment area in Lorraine, France.

    PubMed

    Bernard, Pierre-Yves; Benoît, Marc; Roger-Estrade, Jean; Plantureux, Sylvain

    2016-12-01

    The objectives of this comparison of two biophysical models of nitrogen losses were to evaluate first whether results were similar and second whether both were equally practical for use by non-scientist users. Results were obtained with the crop model STICS and the environmental model AGRIFLUX based on nitrogen loss simulations across a small groundwater catchment area (<1 km(2)) located in the Lorraine region in France. Both models simulate the influences of leaching and cropping systems on nitrogen losses in a relevant manner. The authors conclude that limiting the simulations to areas where soils with a greater risk of leaching cover a significant spatial extent would likely yield acceptable results because those soils have more predictable leaching of nitrogen. In addition, the choice of an environmental model such as AGRIFLUX which requires fewer parameters and input variables seems more user-friendly for agro-environmental assessment. The authors then discuss additional challenges for non-scientists such as lack of parameter optimization, which is essential to accurately assessing nitrogen fluxes and indirectly not to limit the diversity of uses of simulated results. Despite current restrictions, with some improvement, biophysical models could become useful environmental assessment tools for non-scientists. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. APEX model simulation of edge-of-field water quality benefits from upland buffers

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    For maximum usefulness, simulation models must be able to estimate the effectiveness of management practices not represented in the dataset used for model calibration. This study focuses on the ability of the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) to simulate upland buffer effectiveness f...

  13. Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.; Claggett, Peter; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Colarullo, Susan J.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

    2015-11-18

    The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

  14. SIMULATION MODELS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MULTIMEDIA ANALYSIS OF TOXIC CHEMICALS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multimedia understanding of pollutant behavior in the environment is of particular concern for chemicals that are toxic and are subject to accumulation in the environmental media (air, soil, water, vegetation) where biota and human exposure is significant. Multimedia simulation ...

  15. A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

    PubMed

    Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

    2014-04-01

    Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided.

  16. A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants

    PubMed Central

    Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

    2014-01-01

    Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided. PMID:24834325

  17. Process model simulations of the divergence effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anchukaitis, K. J.; Evans, M. N.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Hughes, M. K.; Kaplan, A.; Vaganov, E. A.

    2007-12-01

    We explore the extent to which the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model of conifer tree-ring formation can explain evidence for changing relationships between climate and tree growth over recent decades. The VS model is driven by daily environmental forcing (temperature, soil moisture, and solar radiation), and simulates tree-ring growth cell-by-cell as a function of the most limiting environmental control. This simplified representation of tree physiology allows us to examine using a selection of case studies whether instances of divergence may be explained in terms of changes in limiting environmental dependencies or transient climate change. Identification of model-data differences permits further exploration of the effects of tree-ring standardization, atmospheric composition, and additional non-climatic factors.

  18. Environmental fog/rain visual display system for aircraft simulators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chase, W. D. (Inventor)

    1982-01-01

    An environmental fog/rain visual display system for aircraft simulators is described. The electronic elements of the system include a real time digital computer, a caligraphic color display which simulates landing lights of selective intensity, and a color television camera for producing a moving color display of the airport runway as depicted on a model terrain board. The mechanical simulation elements of the system include an environmental chamber which can produce natural fog, nonhomogeneous fog, rain and fog combined, or rain only. A pilot looking through the aircraft wind screen will look through the fog and/or rain generated in the environmental chamber onto a viewing screen with the simulated color image of the airport runway thereon, and observe a very real simulation of actual conditions of a runway as it would appear through actual fog and/or rain.

  19. The NASA environmental models of Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaplan, D. I.

    1991-01-01

    NASA environmental models are discussed with particular attention given to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and the Mars Terrain simulator. The Mars-GRAM model takes into account seasonal, diurnal, and surface topography and dust storm effects upon the atmosphere. It is also capable of simulating appropriate random density perturbations along any trajectory path through the atmosphere. The Mars Terrain Simulator is a software program that builds pseudo-Martian terrains by layering the effects of geological processes upon one another. Output pictures of the constructed surfaces can be viewed from any vantage point under any illumination conditions. Attention is also given to the document 'Environment of Mars, 1988' in which scientific models of the Martian atmosphere and Martian surface are presented.

  20. Water Quality Assessment Simulation Program (WASP8): Upgrades to the Advanced Toxicant Module for Simulating Dissolved Chemicals, Nanomaterials, and Solids

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) is a dynamic, spatially-resolved, differential mass balance fate and transport modeling framework. WASP is used to develop models to simulate concentrations of environmental contaminants in surface waters and sediments. As a mo...

  1. Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for FRAMES-3MRA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Babendreier, Justin E.; Castleton, Karl J.

    2005-08-01

    Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRAmore » modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU) .« less

  2. Development of the TRANSIMS Environmental Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1997-06-01

    The TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) is one part the multi-track Travel Model Improvement Program under joint development by the Department of Transportation, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Department of Energy. ...

  3. 78 FR 59662 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-27

    ... applications and assessment of site specific, generic, and process-oriented multimedia environmental models as... development and simulation supports interagency interests in risk assessment, uncertainty analyses, management...

  4. USER MANUAL FOR EXPRESS, THE EXAMS-PRZM EXPOSURE SIMULATION SHELL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Environmental Fate and Effects Division (EFED) of EPA's Office of Pesticide Programs(OPP) uses a suite of ORD simulation models for the exposure analysis portion of regulatory risk assessments. These models (PRZM, EXAMS, AgDisp) are complex, process-based simulation codes tha...

  5. Environmental Factors Affecting Asthma and Allergies: Predicting and Simulating Downwind Exposure to Airborne Pollen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luvall, Jeffrey; Estes, Sue; Sprigg, William A.; Nickovic, Slobodan; Huete, Alfredo; Solano, Ramon; Ratana, Piyachat; Jiang, Zhangyan; Flowers, Len; Zelicoff, Alan

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the environmental factors that affect asthma and allergies and work to predict and simulate the downwind exposure to airborne pollen. Using a modification of Dust REgional Atmosphere Model (DREAM) that incorporates phenology (i.e. PREAM) the aim was to predict concentrations of pollen in time and space. The strategy for using the model to simulate downwind pollen dispersal, and evaluate the results. Using MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to get seasonal sampling of Juniper, the pollen chosen for the study, land cover on a near daily basis. The results of the model are reviewed.

  6. Simulating Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Transport in Surface Water Systems Using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to perform new chemical reviews of nanomaterials identified in premanufacture notices. However, environmental fate models developed for traditional contaminants are limited in the...

  7. A simulation model of building intervention impacts on indoor environmental quality, pediatric asthma, and costs

    PubMed Central

    Fabian, Maria Patricia; Adamkiewicz, Gary; Stout, Natasha Kay; Sandel, Megan; Levy, Jonathan Ian

    2013-01-01

    Background Although indoor environmental conditions can affect pediatric asthmatics, few studies have characterized the impact of building interventions on asthma-related outcomes. Simulation models can evaluate such complex systems but have not been applied in this context. Objective To evaluate the impacts of building interventions on indoor environmental quality and pediatric asthma healthcare utilization, and to conduct cost comparisons between intervention and healthcare costs, and energy savings. Methods We applied our previously developed discrete event simulation model (DEM) to simulate the effect of environmental factors, medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on: 1) pollutant concentrations indoors, and 2) asthma outcomes in low-income multi-family housing. We estimated healthcare utilization and costs at baseline and subsequent to interventions, and then compared healthcare costs to energy savings and intervention costs. Results Interventions such as integrated pest management and repairing kitchen exhaust fans led to 7–12% reductions in serious asthma events with 1–3 year payback periods. Weatherization efforts targeted solely towards tightening a building envelope led to 20% more serious asthma events, but bundling with repairing kitchen exhaust fans and eliminating indoor sources (e.g. gas stoves or smokers) mitigated this impact. Conclusion Our pediatric asthma model provides a tool to prioritize individual and bundled building interventions based on their impact on health and cost, and highlighting the tradeoffs between weatherization, indoor air quality, and health. Our work bridges the gap between clinical and environmental health sciences by increasing physicians’ understanding of the impact that home environmental changes can have on their patients’ asthma. PMID:23910689

  8. Fractal Landscape Algorithms for Environmental Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, H.; Moran, S.

    2014-12-01

    Natural science and geographical research are now able to take advantage of environmental simulations that more accurately test experimental hypotheses, resulting in deeper understanding. Experiments affected by the natural environment can benefit from 3D landscape simulations capable of simulating a variety of terrains and environmental phenomena. Such simulations can employ random terrain generation algorithms that dynamically simulate environments to test specific models against a variety of factors. Through the use of noise functions such as Perlin noise, Simplex noise, and diamond square algorithms, computers can generate simulations that model a variety of landscapes and ecosystems. This study shows how these algorithms work together to create realistic landscapes. By seeding values into the diamond square algorithm, one can control the shape of landscape. Perlin noise and Simplex noise are also used to simulate moisture and temperature. The smooth gradient created by coherent noise allows more realistic landscapes to be simulated. Terrain generation algorithms can be used in environmental studies and physics simulations. Potential studies that would benefit from simulations include the geophysical impact of flash floods or drought on a particular region and regional impacts on low lying area due to global warming and rising sea levels. Furthermore, terrain generation algorithms also serve as aesthetic tools to display landscapes (Google Earth), and simulate planetary landscapes. Hence, it can be used as a tool to assist science education. Algorithms used to generate these natural phenomena provide scientists a different approach in analyzing our world. The random algorithms used in terrain generation not only contribute to the generating the terrains themselves, but are also capable of simulating weather patterns.

  9. Stimulation from Simulation? A Teaching Model of Hillslope Hydrology for Use on Microcomputers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burt, Tim; Butcher, Dave

    1986-01-01

    The design and use of a simple computer model which simulates a hillslope hydrology is described in a teaching context. The model shows a relatively complex environmental system can be constructed on the basis of a simple but realistic theory, thus allowing students to simulate the hydrological response of real hillslopes. (Author/TRS)

  10. International Research Workshop on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling: Problems, Prospects, and Research Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parks, Bradley; Meeson, Blanche W. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The 4th International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling (GIS/EM4) was convened in Banff, Canada, September 2-8, 2000 at The Banff Centre for Conferences. The meeting's purpose, like it's predecessors was to reformulate, each three to four years, the collaborative research agenda for integrating spatio-temporal analysis with environmental simulation modeling.

  11. Spacecraft VHF Radio Propagation Analysis in Ocean Environments Including Atmospheric Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hwu, Shian; Moreno, Gerardo; Desilva, Kanishka; Jih, CIndy

    2010-01-01

    The Communication Systems Simulation Laboratory (CSSL) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked to perform spacecraft and ground network communication system simulations. The CSSL has developed simulation tools that model spacecraft communication systems and the space/ground environment in which they operate. This paper is to analyze a spacecraft's very high frequency (VHF) radio signal propagation and the impact to performance when landing in an ocean. Very little research work has been done for VHF radio systems in a maritime environment. Rigorous Radio Frequency (RF) modeling/simulation techniques were employed for various environmental effects. The simulation results illustrate the significance of the environmental effects on the VHF radio system performance.

  12. EVALUATING PREDICTIVE ERRORS OF A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL USING A GENERAL LINEAR MODEL AND LEAST SQUARE MEANS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A General Linear Model (GLM) was used to evaluate the deviation of predicted values from expected values for a complex environmental model. For this demonstration, we used the default level interface of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM) to simulate epilimnetic total mer...

  13. Triple Value Simulation Model Fact Sheet

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Triple Value Simulation (3VS) is a high-level model that accounts for the complex relationships among economic, social and environmental systems in order to explore scenarios and solutions to improve the health of the Bay.

  14. Apex simulation: environmental benefits of agroforestry and grass buffers for corn-soybean watersheds

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model is used to simulate the effects of vegetative filter strips on runoff and pollutant loadings from agricultural watersheds. A long-term paired watershed study under corn (Zea mays L-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation with agroforestr...

  15. Can Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) be used to reconstruct palaeo-climate and sea-level histories?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.

    2011-12-01

    Reconstruction of palaeo-environmental conditions over long time periods is notoriously difficult, especially where there are limited or no proxy records from which to extract data. Application of landscape evolution models (LEMs) for palaeo-environmental reconstruction involves hindcast modeling, in which simulation scenarios are configured with specific model variables and parameters chosen to reflect a specific hypothesis of environmental change. In this form of modeling, the environmental time series utilized are considered credible when modeled and observed landscape metrics converge. Herein we account for the uncertainties involved in evaluating the degree to which the model simulations and observations converge using Monte Carlo analysis of reduced complexity `metamodels'. The technique is applied to a case study focused on a specific set of gullies found on the southwest coast of the Isle of Wight, UK. A key factor controlling the Holocene evolution of these coastal gullies is the balance between rates of sea-cliff retreat (driven by sea-level rise) and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration (driven by the rate of runoff). We simulate these processes using a version of the GOLEM model that has been modified to represent sea-cliff retreat. A Central Composite Design (CCD) sampling technique was employed, enabling the trajectories of gully response to different combinations of driving conditions to be modeled explicitly. In some of these simulations, where the range of bedrock erodibility (0.03 to 0.04 m0.2 a-1) and rate of sea-level change (0.005 to 0.0059 m a-1) is tightly constrained, modeled gully forms conform closely to those observed in reality, enabling a suite of climate and sea-level change scenarios which plausibly explain the Holocene evolution of the Isle of Wight gullies to be identified.

  16. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Multimedia, Multipathway Chemicals: Dietary Module Version 1: Technical Manual

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    SHEDS - Multimedia is EPA's premier physically-based, probabilistic model, that can simulate cumulative or aggregate exposures for a population across a variety of multimedia, multipathway environmental chemicals.

  17. INVESTIGATING UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY IN INTEGRATED, MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS: TOOLS FOR FRAMES-3MRA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites...

  18. Modeling Engineered Nanomaterials (ENMs) Fate and ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to perform new chemical reviews of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) identified in pre-manufacture notices. However, environmental fate models developed for traditional contaminants are limited in their ability to simulate the environmental behavior of nanomaterials due to incomplete understanding and representation of the processes governing nanomaterial distribution in the environment and by scarce empirical data quantifying the interaction of nanomaterials with environmental surfaces. We have updated the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP), version S, to incorporate nanomaterials as an explicitly simulated state variable. WASPS now has the capability to simulate nanomaterial fate and transport in surface waters and sediments using heteroaggregation, the kinetic process governing the attachment of nanomaterials to particles and subsequently ENM distribution in the aqueous and sediment phases. Unlike dissolved chemicals which use equilibrium partition coefficients, heteroaggregation consists of a particle collision rate and an attachment efficiency ( lXhet) that generally acts as a one direction process. To demonstrate, we used a derived a het value from sediment attachment studies to parameterize WASP for simulation of multi walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) transport in Brier Creek, a coastal plain river located in central eastern Georgia, USA and a tr

  19. A Solution Framework for Environmental Characterization Problems

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper describes experiences developing a grid-enabled framework for solving environmental inverse problems. The solution approach taken here couples environmental simulation models with global search methods and requires readily available computational resources of the grid ...

  20. Modeling the Land Use/Cover Change in an Arid Region Oasis City Constrained by Water Resource and Environmental Policy Change using Cellular Automata Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, X.; Li, X.; Lu, L.

    2017-12-01

    Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important subject in the research of global environmental change and sustainable development, while spatial simulation on land use/cover change is one of the key content of LUCC and is also difficult due to the complexity of the system. The cellular automata (CA) model had an irreplaceable role in simulating of land use/cover change process due to the powerful spatial computing power. However, the majority of current CA land use/cover models were binary-state model that could not provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of land use/cover change. Here, a multi-state logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multi-state artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and were used to simulate complex land use/cover evolutionary process in an arid region oasis city constrained by water resource and environmental policy change, the Zhangye city during the period of 1990-2010. The results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. These indicated that by combining the artificial neural network with CA could more effectively capture the complex relationships between the land use/cover change and a set of spatial variables. Although the MLRMCA model were also some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use/cover dynamics. The two proposed models were effective and reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional land use/cover changes. These have also potential implications for the impact assessment of water resources, ecological restoration, and the sustainable urban development in arid areas.

  1. A simulation model of building intervention impacts on indoor environmental quality, pediatric asthma, and costs.

    PubMed

    Fabian, Maria Patricia; Adamkiewicz, Gary; Stout, Natasha Kay; Sandel, Megan; Levy, Jonathan Ian

    2014-01-01

    Although indoor environmental conditions can affect pediatric asthmatic patients, few studies have characterized the effect of building interventions on asthma-related outcomes. Simulation models can evaluate such complex systems but have not been applied in this context. We sought to evaluate the impact of building interventions on indoor environmental quality and pediatric asthma health care use, and to conduct cost comparisons between intervention and health care costs and energy savings. We applied our previously developed discrete event simulation model (DEM) to simulate the effect of environmental factors, medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on (1) pollutant concentrations indoors and (2) asthma outcomes in low-income multifamily housing. We estimated health care use and costs at baseline and subsequent to interventions, and then compared health care costs with energy savings and intervention costs. Interventions, such as integrated pest management and repairing kitchen exhaust fans, led to 7% to 12% reductions in serious asthma events with 1- to 3-year payback periods. Weatherization efforts targeted solely toward tightening a building envelope led to 20% more serious asthma events, but bundling with repairing kitchen exhaust fans and eliminating indoor sources (eg, gas stoves or smokers) mitigated this effect. Our pediatric asthma model provides a tool to prioritize individual and bundled building interventions based on their effects on health and costs, highlighting the tradeoffs between weatherization, indoor air quality, and health. Our work bridges the gap between clinical and environmental health sciences by increasing physicians' understanding of the effect that home environmental changes can have on their patients' asthma. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Multimedia, Multipathway Chemicals: Residential Module Version 4: User Guide, June 2012

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    SHEDS - Multimedia is EPA's premier physically-based, probabilistic model, that can simulate cumulative or aggregate exposures for a population across a variety of multimedia, multipathway environmental chemicals.

  3. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Multimedia, Multipathway Chemicals: Residential Module Version 4: Technical Manual, May 2012

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    SHEDS - Multimedia is EPA's premier physically-based, probabilistic model, that can simulate cumulative or aggregate exposures for a population across a variety of multimedia, multipathway environmental chemicals.

  4. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Multimedia, Multipathway Chemicals: Dietary Module Version 1: User Guide, June 2012

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    SHEDS - Multimedia is EPA's premier physically-based, probabilistic model, that can simulate cumulative or aggregate exposures for a population across a variety of multimedia, multipathway environmental chemicals.

  5. Evaluating the APEX model for simulating streamflow and water quality on ten agricultural watersheds in the U.S.

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Simulation models are increasingly used to assess water quality constituent losses from agricultural systems. Mis-use often gives irrelevant or erroneous answers. The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model is emerging as one of the premier modeling tools for fields, farms, and agr...

  6. JAMS - a software platform for modular hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kralisch, Sven; Fischer, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Current challenges of understanding and assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes on environmental systems demand for an ever-increasing integration of data and process knowledge in corresponding simulation models. Software frameworks that allow for a seamless creation of integrated models based on less complex components (domain models, process simulation routines) have therefore gained increasing attention during the last decade. JAMS is an Open-Source software framework that has been especially designed to cope with the challenges of eco-hydrological modelling. This is reflected by (i) its flexible approach for representing time and space, (ii) a strong separation of process simulation components from the declarative description of more complex models using domain specific XML, (iii) powerful analysis and visualization functions for spatial and temporal input and output data, and (iv) parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis functions commonly used in environmental modelling. Based on JAMS, different hydrological and nutrient-transport simulation models were implemented and successfully applied during the last years. We will present the JAMS core concepts and give an overview of models, simulation components and support tools available for that framework. Sample applications will be used to underline the advantages of component-based model designs and to show how JAMS can be used to address the challenges of integrated hydrological modelling.

  7. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation.

    PubMed

    Yeh, Gour-Tsyh; Gwo, Jin-Ping; Siegel, Malcolm D; Li, Ming-Hsu; Fang, Yilin; Zhang, Fan; Luo, Wensui; Yabusaki, Steve B

    2013-05-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g., Ni, Cr, Co). The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models for environmental remediation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yeh, Gour T.; National Central Univ.; Univ. of Central Florida

    2013-05-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out aremore » used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models for environmental remediation.The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium.« less

  9. Standardized input for Hanford environmental impact statements

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Napier, B.A.

    1981-05-01

    Models and computer programs for simulating the environmental behavior of radionuclides in the environment and the resulting radiation dose to humans have been developed over the years by the Environmental Analysis Section staff, Ecological Sciences Department at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). Methodologies have evolved for calculating raidation doses from many exposure pathways for any type of release mechanism. Depending on the situation or process being simulated, different sets of computer programs, assumptions, and modeling techniques must be used. This report is a compilation of recommended computer programs and necessary input information for use in calculating doses to members ofmore » the general public for environmental impact statements prepared for DOE activities to be conducted on or near the Hanford Reservation.« less

  10. Modelling spatio-temporal variability of Mytilus edulis (L.) growth by forcing a dynamic energy budget model with satellite-derived environmental data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Yoann; Mazurié, Joseph; Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; Bacher, Cédric; Bouget, Jean-François; Gohin, Francis; Pouvreau, Stéphane; Struski, Caroline

    2011-11-01

    In order to assess the potential of various marine ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture and to evaluate their carrying capacities, there is a need to clarify the response of exploited species to environmental variations using robust ecophysiological models and available environmental data. For a large range of applications and comparison purposes, a non-specific approach based on 'generic' individual growth models offers many advantages. In this context, we simulated the response of blue mussel ( Mytilus edulis L.) to the spatio-temporal fluctuations of the environment in Mont Saint-Michel Bay (North Brittany) by forcing a generic growth model based on Dynamic Energy Budgets with satellite-derived environmental data (i.e. temperature and food). After a calibration step based on data from mussel growth surveys, the model was applied over nine years on a large area covering the entire bay. These simulations provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal variability in mussel growth and also show the ability of the DEB model to integrate satellite-derived data and to predict spatial and temporal growth variability of mussels. Observed seasonal, inter-annual and spatial growth variations are well simulated. The large-scale application highlights the strong link between food and mussel growth. The methodology described in this study may be considered as a suitable approach to account for environmental effects (food and temperature variations) on physiological responses (growth and reproduction) of filter feeders in varying environments. Such physiological responses may then be useful for evaluating the suitability of coastal ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture.

  11. An objective decision model of power grid environmental protection based on environmental influence index and energy-saving and emission-reducing index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Jun-shu; Jin, Yan-ming; Hao, Wei-hua

    2017-01-01

    Based on modelling the environmental influence index of power transmission and transformation project and energy-saving and emission-reducing index of source-grid-load of power system, this paper establishes an objective decision model of power grid environmental protection, with constraints of power grid environmental protection objectives being legal and economical, and considering both positive and negative influences of grid on the environmental in all-life grid cycle. This model can be used to guide the programming work of power grid environmental protection. A numerical simulation of Jiangsu province’s power grid environmental protection objective decision model has been operated, and the results shows that the maximum goal of energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits would be reached firstly as investment increasing, and then the minimum goal of environmental influence.

  12. Characterize older driver behavior for traffic simulation and vehicle emission model.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2012-05-01

    The use of traffic simulation models is becoming more widespread as a means of : assessing traffic, safety and environmental impacts as a result of infrastructure, control and : operational changes at disaggregate levels. It is imperative that these ...

  13. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Multimedia, Multipathway Chemicals: Dietary Module Version 1: Quick Start Guide, May 2012

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    SHEDS - Multimedia is EPA's premier physically-based, probabilistic model, that can simulate cumulative or aggregate exposures for a population across a variety of multimedia, multipathway environmental chemicals.

  14. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Multimedia, Multipathway Chemicals: Residential Module Version 4: Quick Start Guide, April 2012

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    SHEDS - Multimedia is EPA's premier physically-based, probabilistic model, that can simulate cumulative or aggregate exposures for a population across a variety of multimedia, multipathway environmental chemicals.

  15. Using HexSim to link demography and genetics in animal and plant simulations

    EPA Science Inventory

    Simulation models are essential for understanding the effects of land management practices and environmental drivers, including landscape change, shape population genetic structure and persistence probabilities. The emerging field of eco-evolutionary modeling is beginning to dev...

  16. Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort.

    PubMed

    Boregowda, S C; Tiwari, S N; Chaturvedi, S K

    2001-12-01

    The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

  17. Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boregowda, S. C.; Tiwari, S. N.; Chaturvedi, S. K.

    2001-01-01

    The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

  18. Environmental impact analysis with the airspace concept evaluation system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Augustine, Stephen; Capozzi, Brian; DiFelici, John; Graham, Michael; Thompson, Terry; Miraflor, Raymond M. C.

    2005-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center has developed the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), which is a fast-time simulation tool for evaluating Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems. This paper describes linking a capability to ACES which can analyze the environmental impact of proposed future ATM systems. This provides the ability to quickly evaluate metrics associated with environmental impacts of aviation for inclusion in multi-dimensional cost-benefit analysis of concepts for evolution of the National Airspace System (NAS) over the next several decades. The methodology used here may be summarized as follows: 1) Standard Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) noise and emissions-inventory models, the Noise Impact Routing System (NIRS) and the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS), respectively, are linked to ACES simulation outputs; 2) appropriate modifications are made to ACES outputs to incorporate all information needed by the environmental models (e.g., specific airframe and engine data); 3) noise and emissions calculations are performed for all traffic and airports in the study area for each of several scenarios, as simulated by ACES; and 4) impacts of future scenarios are compared to the current NAS baseline scenario. This paper also provides the results of initial end-to-end, proof-of-concept runs of the integrated ACES and environmental-modeling capability. These preliminary results demonstrate that if no growth is likely to be impeded by significant environmental impacts that could negatively affect communities throughout the nation.

  19. Multilevel discretized random field models with 'spin' correlations for the simulation of environmental spatial data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Žukovič, Milan; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

    2009-02-01

    A current problem of practical significance is how to analyze large, spatially distributed, environmental data sets. The problem is more challenging for variables that follow non-Gaussian distributions. We show by means of numerical simulations that the spatial correlations between variables can be captured by interactions between 'spins'. The spins represent multilevel discretizations of environmental variables with respect to a number of pre-defined thresholds. The spatial dependence between the 'spins' is imposed by means of short-range interactions. We present two approaches, inspired by the Ising and Potts models, that generate conditional simulations of spatially distributed variables from samples with missing data. Currently, the sampling and simulation points are assumed to be at the nodes of a regular grid. The conditional simulations of the 'spin system' are forced to respect locally the sample values and the system statistics globally. The second constraint is enforced by minimizing a cost function representing the deviation between normalized correlation energies of the simulated and the sample distributions. In the approach based on the Nc-state Potts model, each point is assigned to one of Nc classes. The interactions involve all the points simultaneously. In the Ising model approach, a sequential simulation scheme is used: the discretization at each simulation level is binomial (i.e., ± 1). Information propagates from lower to higher levels as the simulation proceeds. We compare the two approaches in terms of their ability to reproduce the target statistics (e.g., the histogram and the variogram of the sample distribution), to predict data at unsampled locations, as well as in terms of their computational complexity. The comparison is based on a non-Gaussian data set (derived from a digital elevation model of the Walker Lake area, Nevada, USA). We discuss the impact of relevant simulation parameters, such as the domain size, the number of discretization levels, and the initial conditions.

  20. A Chemical Properties Simulator to Support Integrated Environmental Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Users of Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) systems are responsible for defining individual chemicals and their properties, a process that is time-consuming at best and overwhelming at worst, especially for new chemicals with new structures. A software tool is needed to allo...

  1. Environmental characteristics comparison of Li-ion batteries and Ni-MH batteries under the uncertainty of cycle performance.

    PubMed

    Yu, Yajuan; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Huang, Kai; Wang, Lijing; Bao, Liying; Wu, Feng

    2012-08-30

    An environmental impact assessment model for secondary batteries under uncertainty is proposed, which is a combination of the life cycle assessment (LCA), Eco-indicator 99 system and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The LCA can describe the environmental impact mechanism of secondary batteries, whereas the cycle performance was simulated through MCS. The composite LCA-MCS model was then carried out to estimate the environmental impact of two kinds of experimental batteries. Under this kind of standard assessment system, a comparison between different batteries could be accomplished. The following results were found: (1) among the two selected batteries, the environmental impact of the Li-ion battery is lower than the nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) battery, especially with regards to resource consumption and (2) the lithium ion (Li-ion) battery is less sensitive to cycle uncertainty, its environmental impact fluctuations are small when compared with the selected Ni-MH battery and it is more environmentally friendly. The assessment methodology and model proposed in this paper can also be used for any other secondary batteries and they can be helpful in the development of environmentally friendly secondary batteries. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Is my study system good enough? A case study for identifying maternal effects.

    PubMed

    Holand, Anna Marie; Steinsland, Ingelin

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we demonstrate how simulation studies can be used to answer questions about identifiability and consequences of omitting effects from a model. The methodology is presented through a case study where identifiability of genetic and/or individual (environmental) maternal effects is explored. Our study system is a wild house sparrow ( Passer domesticus ) population with known pedigree. We fit pedigree-based (generalized) linear mixed models (animal models), with and without additive genetic and individual maternal effects, and use deviance information criterion (DIC) for choosing between these models. Pedigree and R-code for simulations are available. For this study system, the simulation studies show that only large maternal effects can be identified. The genetic maternal effect (and similar for individual maternal effect) has to be at least half of the total genetic variance to be identified. The consequences of omitting a maternal effect when it is present are explored. Our results indicate that the total (genetic and individual) variance are accounted for. When an individual (environmental) maternal effect is omitted from the model, this only influences the estimated (direct) individual (environmental) variance. When a genetic maternal effect is omitted from the model, both (direct) genetic and (direct) individual variance estimates are overestimated.

  3. SPRAYTRAN 1.0 User’s Guide: A GIS-Based Atmospheric Spray Droplet Dispersion Modeling System

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Allwine, K Jerry; Rutz, Frederick C.; Droppo, James G.

    SPRAY TRANsport (SPRAYTRAN) is a comprehensive dispersion modeling system that is used to simulate the offsite drift of pesticides from spray applications. SPRAYTRAN functions as a console application within Environmental System Research Institute’s ArcMap Geographic Information System (Version 9.x) and integrates the widely-used, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-approved CALifornia PUFF (CALPUFF) dispersion model and model components to simulate longer-range transport and diffusion in variable terrain and spatially/temporally varying meteorological (e.g., wind) fields. Area sources, which are used to define spray blocks in SPRAYTRAN, are initialized using output files generated from a separate aerial-spray-application model called AGDISP (AGricultural DISPersal). The AGDISPmore » model is used for estimating the amount of pesticide deposited to the spray block based on spraying characteristics (e.g., pesticide type, spray nozzles, and aircraft type) and then simulating the near-field (less than 300-m) drift from a single pesticide application. The fraction of pesticide remaining airborne from the AGDISP near-field simulation is then used by SPRAYTRAN for simulating longer-range (greater than 300 m) drift and deposition of the pesticide.« less

  4. Comparative Environmental Performance of Two-Diesel-Fuel Oxygenates: Dibutyl Maleate (DBM) and Triproplyene Glycol Monomethyl Ether (TGME)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Layton, D.W.; Marchetti, A.A.

    2001-10-01

    Many studies have shown that the addition of oxygen bearing compounds to diesel fuel can significantly reduce particulate emissions. To assist in the evaluation of the environmental performance of diesel-fuel oxygenates, we have implemented a suite of diagnostic models for simulating the transport of compounds released to air, water, and soils/groundwater as well as regional landscapes. As a means of studying the comparative performance of DBM and TGME, we conducted a series of simulations for selected environmental media. Benzene and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) were also addressed because they represent benchmark fuel-related compounds that have been the subject ofmore » extensive environmental measurements and modeling. The simulations showed that DBM and TGME are less mobile in soil because of reduced vapor-phase transport and increased retention on soil particles. The key distinction between these two oxygenates is that DBM is predicted to have a greater potential than TGME for aerobic biodegradation, based on chemical structure.« less

  5. ADDRESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE TO AIR POLLUTANTS AROUND BUILDINGS IN URBAN AREAS WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS (CFD) MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations provide a number of unique opportunities for expanding and improving capabilities for modeling exposures to environmental pollutants. The US Environmental Protection Agency's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has been c...

  6. A Chemical Properties Simulator to Support Integrated Environmental Modeling (proceeding)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Users of Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) systems are responsible for defining individual chemicals and their properties, a process that is time-consuming at best and overwhelming at worst, especially for new chemicals with new structures. A software tool is needed to allo...

  7. Functional mapping of reaction norms to multiple environmental signals through nonparametric covariance estimation

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The identification of genes or quantitative trait loci that are expressed in response to different environmental factors such as temperature and light, through functional mapping, critically relies on precise modeling of the covariance structure. Previous work used separable parametric covariance structures, such as a Kronecker product of autoregressive one [AR(1)] matrices, that do not account for interaction effects of different environmental factors. Results We implement a more robust nonparametric covariance estimator to model these interactions within the framework of functional mapping of reaction norms to two signals. Our results from Monte Carlo simulations show that this estimator can be useful in modeling interactions that exist between two environmental signals. The interactions are simulated using nonseparable covariance models with spatio-temporal structural forms that mimic interaction effects. Conclusions The nonparametric covariance estimator has an advantage over separable parametric covariance estimators in the detection of QTL location, thus extending the breadth of use of functional mapping in practical settings. PMID:21269481

  8. Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Prioritize Key Maritime Environmental Impacts of Port Infrastructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez Lespier, L. M.; Long, S.; Shoberg, T.

    2016-12-01

    This study creates a Monte Carlo simulation model to prioritize key indicators of environmental impacts resulting from maritime port infrastructure. Data inputs are derived from LandSat imagery, government databases, and industry reports to create the simulation. Results are validated using subject matter experts and compared with those returned from time-series regression to determine goodness of fit. The Port of Prince Rupert, Canada is used as the location for the study.

  9. [Micro-simulation of firms' heterogeneity on pollution intensity and regional characteristics].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Nan; Liu, Yi; Chen, Ji-Ning

    2009-11-01

    In the same industrial sector, heterogeneity of pollution intensity exists among firms. There are some errors if using sector's average pollution intensity, which are calculated by limited number of firms in environmental statistic database to represent the sector's regional economic-environmental status. Based on the production function which includes environmental depletion as input, a micro-simulation model on firms' operational decision making is proposed. Then the heterogeneity of firms' pollution intensity can be mechanically described. Taking the mechanical manufacturing sector in Deyang city, 2005 as the case, the model's parameters were estimated. And the actual COD emission intensities of environmental statistic firms can be properly matched by the simulation. The model's results also show that the regional average COD emission intensity calculated by the environmental statistic firms (0.002 6 t per 10 000 yuan fixed asset, 0.001 5 t per 10 000 yuan production value) is lower than the regional average intensity calculated by all the firms in the region (0.003 0 t per 10 000 yuan fixed asset, 0.002 3 t per 10 000 yuan production value). The difference among average intensities in the six counties is significant as well. These regional characteristics of pollution intensity attribute to the sector's inner-structure (firms' scale distribution, technology distribution) and its spatial deviation.

  10. Short-term responses of leaf growth rate to water deficit scale up to whole-plant and crop levels: an integrated modelling approach in maize.

    PubMed

    Chenu, Karine; Chapman, Scott C; Hammer, Graeme L; McLean, Greg; Salah, Halim Ben Haj; Tardieu, François

    2008-03-01

    Physiological and genetic studies of leaf growth often focus on short-term responses, leaving a gap to whole-plant models that predict biomass accumulation, transpiration and yield at crop scale. To bridge this gap, we developed a model that combines an existing model of leaf 6 expansion in response to short-term environmental variations with a model coordinating the development of all leaves of a plant. The latter was based on: (1) rates of leaf initiation, appearance and end of elongation measured in field experiments; and (2) the hypothesis of an independence of the growth between leaves. The resulting whole-plant leaf model was integrated into the generic crop model APSIM which provided dynamic feedback of environmental conditions to the leaf model and allowed simulation of crop growth at canopy level. The model was tested in 12 field situations with contrasting temperature, evaporative demand and soil water status. In observed and simulated data, high evaporative demand reduced leaf area at the whole-plant level, and short water deficits affected only leaves developing during the stress, either visible or still hidden in the whorl. The model adequately simulated whole-plant profiles of leaf area with a single set of parameters that applied to the same hybrid in all experiments. It was also suitable to predict biomass accumulation and yield of a similar hybrid grown in different conditions. This model extends to field conditions existing knowledge of the environmental controls of leaf elongation, and can be used to simulate how their genetic controls flow through to yield.

  11. Estimation of phosphorous loss from agricultural land in the Heartland region of the U.S.A. using the APEX model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Accurate phosphorus (P) loss estimation from agricultural land is important for development of best management practices and protection of water quality. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model is a powerful simulation model designed to simulate edge-of-field water, sediment, an...

  12. Lysimetric evaluation of the APEX Model to simulate daily ET for irrigated crops in the Texas High Plains

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The NTT (Nutrient Tracking Tool) was designed to provide an opportunity for all users, including producers, to simulate the complex models, such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender) and associated required databases. The APEX model currently nested within NTT provides estimates of th...

  13. Simulating forage crop production in a northern climate with the Integrated Farm System Model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Whole-farm simulation models are useful tools for evaluating the effect of management practices and climate variability on the agro-environmental and economic performance of farms. A few process-based farm-scale models have been developed, but none have been evaluated in a northern region with a sho...

  14. A model for the perception of environmental sound based on notice-events.

    PubMed

    De Coensel, Bert; Botteldooren, Dick; De Muer, Tom; Berglund, Birgitta; Nilsson, Mats E; Lercher, Peter

    2009-08-01

    An approach is proposed to shed light on the mechanisms underlying human perception of environmental sound that intrudes in everyday living. Most research on exposure-effect relationships aims at relating overall effects to overall exposure indicators in an epidemiological fashion, without including available knowledge on the possible underlying mechanisms. Here, it is proposed to start from available knowledge on audition and perception to construct a computational framework for the effect of environmental sound on individuals. Obviously, at the individual level additional mechanisms (inter-sensory, attentional, cognitive, emotional) play a role in the perception of environmental sound. As a first step, current knowledge is made explicit by building a model mimicking some aspects of human auditory perception. This model is grounded in the hypothesis that long-term perception of environmental sound is determined primarily by short notice-events. The applicability of the notice-event model is illustrated by simulating a synthetic population exposed to typical Flemish environmental noise. From these simulation results, it is demonstrated that the notice-event model is able to mimic the differences between the annoyance caused by road traffic noise exposure and railway traffic noise exposure that are also observed empirically in other studies and thus could provide an explanation for these differences.

  15. Mathematical and Numerical Techniques in Energy and Environmental Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Z.; Ewing, R. E.

    Mathematical models have been widely used to predict, understand, and optimize many complex physical processes, from semiconductor or pharmaceutical design to large-scale applications such as global weather models to astrophysics. In particular, simulation of environmental effects of air pollution is extensive. Here we address the need for using similar models to understand the fate and transport of groundwater contaminants and to design in situ remediation strategies. Three basic problem areas need to be addressed in the modeling and simulation of the flow of groundwater contamination. First, one obtains an effective model to describe the complex fluid/fluid and fluid/rock interactions that control the transport of contaminants in groundwater. This includes the problem of obtaining accurate reservoir descriptions at various length scales and modeling the effects of this heterogeneity in the reservoir simulators. Next, one develops accurate discretization techniques that retain the important physical properties of the continuous models. Finally, one develops efficient numerical solution algorithms that utilize the potential of the emerging computing architectures. We will discuss recent advances and describe the contribution of each of the papers in this book in these three areas. Keywords: reservoir simulation, mathematical models, partial differential equations, numerical algorithms

  16. ASSESSING RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE USING THE STOCHASTIC HUMAN EXPOSURE AND DOSE SIMULATION (SHEDS) MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of a workshop sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development and Office of Pesticide Programs, the Aggregate Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) Model was used to assess potential aggregate residential pesticide e...

  17. Spatial Analysis of Biomass Supply: Economic and Environmental Impacts

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The EPIC simulation model is used with SSURGO soils, field location information, and a transportation cost model to analyze potential biomass supply for a West Central MN bioenergy plant. The simulation shows the relationship between biomass price, locations of where biomass production is profitable...

  18. Development of a Systematic Stakeholder Identification System for 3VS Modeling in the Snohomish Basin, Washington, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    In the Environmental Protection Agency’s Triple Value Simulation (3VS) models, social, economic and environmental indicators are utilized to understand the interrelated impacts of programs and regulations on ecosystems and human communities. Critical to identifying the app...

  19. Development of a Design Tool for Planning Aqueous Amendment Injection Systems Permanganate Design Tool

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-08-01

    CSTR continuously stirred tank reactors CT contact time EDB ethylene dibromide ESTCP Environmental Security Technology Certification Program...63 6.2 Simulating Oxidant Distribution Using a Series of CSTRs -------------------- 63 6.2.1 Model...SIMULATING OXIDANT DISTRIBUTION USING A SERIES OF CSTRS 6.2.1 MODEL DEVELOPMENT The transport and consumption of permanganate are simulated within the

  20. Use of state-and-transition simulation modeling in National Forest planning in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A

    Treesearch

    Ayn J. Shlisky; Don Vandendriesche

    2012-01-01

    Effective national forest planning depends on scientifically sound analyses of land management alternatives relative to desired future conditions and environmental effects. The USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region is currently using state-and-transition simulation models (STMs) to simulate changes in forest composition and structure for the revisions of five...

  1. Simulation of Malaria Transmission among Households in a Thai Village using Remotely Sensed Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Zollner, Gabriela E.; Coleman, Russell E.

    2007-01-01

    We have used discrete-event simulation to model the malaria transmission in a Thailand village with approximately 700 residents. Specifically, we model the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Some of the meteorological and environmental parameters used in the simulation are derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Ikonos satellite data. Parameters used in the simulations reflect the realistic condition of the village, including the locations and sizes of the households, ages and estimated immunity of the residents, presence of farm animals, and locations of larval habitats. Larval habitats include the actual locations where larvae were collected and the probable locations based on satellite data. The output of the simulation includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Simulated transmission under homogeneous environmental condition was compared with that predicted by a SEIR model. Sensitivity of the output with respect to some extrinsic and intrinsic factors was investigated. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. The simulation method is useful for testing transmission hypotheses, estimating the efficacy of insecticide applications, assessing the impacts of nonimmune immigrants, and predicting the effects of socioeconomic, environmental and climatic changes.

  2. Simulation Modeling of Lakes in Undergraduate and Graduate Classrooms Increases Comprehension of Climate Change Concepts and Experience with Computational Tools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carey, Cayelan C.; Gougis, Rebekka Darner

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystem modeling is a critically important tool for environmental scientists, yet is rarely taught in undergraduate and graduate classrooms. To address this gap, we developed a teaching module that exposes students to a suite of modeling skills and tools (including computer programming, numerical simulation modeling, and distributed computing)…

  3. Development of mathematical models of environmental physiology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stolwijk, J. A. J.; Mitchell, J. W.; Nadel, E. R.

    1971-01-01

    Selected articles concerned with mathematical or simulation models of human thermoregulation are presented. The articles presented include: (1) development and use of simulation models in medicine, (2) model of cardio-vascular adjustments during exercise, (3) effective temperature scale based on simple model of human physiological regulatory response, (4) behavioral approach to thermoregulatory set point during exercise, and (5) importance of skin temperature in sweat regulation.

  4. A system dynamics-based environmental performance simulation of construction waste reduction management in China.

    PubMed

    Ding, Zhikun; Yi, Guizhen; Tam, Vivian W Y; Huang, Tengyue

    2016-05-01

    A huge amount of construction waste has been generated from increasingly higher number of construction activities than in the past, which has significant negative impacts on the environment if they are not properly managed. Therefore, effective construction waste management is of primary importance for future sustainable development. Based on the theory of planned behaviors, this paper develops a system dynamic model of construction waste reduction management at the construction phase to simulate the environmental benefits of construction waste reduction management. The application of the proposed model is shown using a case study in Shenzhen, China. Vensim is applied to simulate and analyze the model. The simulation results indicate that source reduction is an effective waste reduction measure which can reduce 27.05% of the total waste generation. Sorting behaviors are a premise for improving the construction waste recycling and reuse rates which account for 15.49% of the total waste generated. The environmental benefits of source reduction outweigh those of sorting behaviors. Therefore, to achieve better environmental performance of the construction waste reduction management, attention should be paid to source reduction such as low waste technologies and on-site management performance. In the meantime, sorting behaviors encouragement such as improving stakeholders' waste awareness, refining regulations, strengthening government supervision and controlling illegal dumping should be emphasized. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Environmental Barrier Coating Fracture, Fatigue and High-Heat-Flux Durability Modeling and Stochastic Progressive Damage Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Dongming; Nemeth, Noel N.

    2017-01-01

    Advanced environmental barrier coatings will play an increasingly important role in future gas turbine engines because of their ability to protect emerging light-weight SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) engine components, further raising engine operating temperatures and performance. Because the environmental barrier coating systems are critical to the performance, reliability and durability of these hot-section ceramic engine components, a prime-reliant coating system along with established life design methodology are required for the hot-section ceramic component insertion into engine service. In this paper, we have first summarized some observations of high temperature, high-heat-flux environmental degradation and failure mechanisms of environmental barrier coating systems in laboratory simulated engine environment tests. In particular, the coating surface cracking morphologies and associated subsequent delamination mechanisms under the engine level high-heat-flux, combustion steam, and mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions will be discussed. The EBC compostion and archtechture improvements based on advanced high heat flux environmental testing, and the modeling advances based on the integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program will also be highlighted. The stochastic progressive damage simulation successfully predicts mud flat damage pattern in EBCs on coated 3-D specimens, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution was assumed in characterizing the coating layer stochastic strength response and the formation of damage was therefore modeled. The damage initiation and coalescence into progressively smaller mudflat crack cells was demonstrated. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the surface crack initiation and delamination propagation in conjunction with environmental degradation under high-heat-flux and environment load test conditions.

  6. Integrating uncertainties to the combined environmental and economic assessment of algal biorefineries: A Monte Carlo approach.

    PubMed

    Pérez-López, Paula; Montazeri, Mahdokht; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, María Teresa; Eckelman, Matthew J

    2018-06-01

    The economic and environmental performance of microalgal processes has been widely analyzed in recent years. However, few studies propose an integrated process-based approach to evaluate economic and environmental indicators simultaneously. Biodiesel is usually the single product and the effect of environmental benefits of co-products obtained in the process is rarely discussed. In addition, there is wide variation of the results due to inherent variability of some parameters as well as different assumptions in the models and limited knowledge about the processes. In this study, two standardized models were combined to provide an integrated simulation tool allowing the simultaneous estimation of economic and environmental indicators from a unique set of input parameters. First, a harmonized scenario was assessed to validate the joint environmental and techno-economic model. The findings were consistent with previous assessments. In a second stage, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to evaluate the influence of variable and uncertain parameters in the model output, as well as the correlations between the different outputs. The simulation showed a high probability of achieving favorable environmental performance for the evaluated categories and a minimum selling price ranging from $11gal -1 to $106gal -1 . Greenhouse gas emissions and minimum selling price were found to have the strongest positive linear relationship, whereas eutrophication showed weak correlations with the other indicators (namely greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative energy demand and minimum selling price). Process parameters (especially biomass productivity and lipid content) were the main source of variation, whereas uncertainties linked to the characterization methods and economic parameters had limited effect on the results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Human and bovine viruses and bacteria at three great lakes beaches: Environmental variable associations and health risk

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Waterborne pathogens were detected in 96% of samples collected at three Lake Michigan beaches during the summer of 2010. Linear regression models were developed to explore environmental factors that may be influential for pathogen prevalence. Simulation of pathogen concentration using these models, ...

  8. Multisite evaluation of APEX for water quality: 1. Best professional judgement parameterization

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural and Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model is capable of estimating edge-of-field water, nutrient, and sediment transport and is used to assess the environmental impacts of management practices. The current practice is to fully calibrate the model for each site simulation, a tas...

  9. Development, Implementation, and Analysis of an Environmental Simulation Information Reference Library and Archive (ESIRLA)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-12-01

    of the DoD environmental science community to identify cloud modeling and other environmental capabilities that support or could potentially support...benefit of the DoD environmental science community. STC determined the detailed requirements for weather effects products and decision aids for specific Air Force operational electro-optical systems.

  10. Meta-Modeling-Based Groundwater Remediation Optimization under Flexibility in Environmental Standard.

    PubMed

    He, Li; Xu, Zongda; Fan, Xing; Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei

    2017-05-01

      This study develops a meta-modeling based mathematical programming approach with flexibility in environmental standards. It integrates numerical simulation, meta-modeling analysis, and fuzzy programming within a general framework. A set of models between remediation strategies and remediation performance can well guarantee the mitigation in computational efforts in the simulation and optimization process. In order to prevent the occurrence of over-optimistic and pessimistic optimization strategies, a high satisfaction level resulting from the implementation of a flexible standard can indicate the degree to which the environmental standard is satisfied. The proposed approach is applied to a naphthalene-contaminated site in China. Results show that a longer remediation period corresponds to a lower total pumping rate and a stringent risk standard implies a high total pumping rate. The wells located near or in the down-gradient direction to the contaminant sources have the most significant efficiency among all of remediation schemes.

  11. Environmental influences on potential recruitment of pink shrimp, Fatlantopenaeus duorarum, from Florida Bay nursery grounds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Browder, Joan A.; Restrepo, V.R.; Rice, J.K.; Robblee, M.B.; Zein-Eldin, Z.

    1999-01-01

    Two modeling approaches were used to explore the basis for variation in recruitment of pink shrimp, Farfantepenaeus duorarum, to the Tortugas fishing grounds. Emphasis was on development and juvenile densities on the nursery grounds. An exploratory simulation modeling exercise demonstrated large year-to-year variations in recruitment contributions to the Tortugas rink shrimp fishery may occur on some nursery grounds, and production may differ considerably among nursery grounds within the same year, simply on the basis of differences in temperature and salinity. We used a growth and survival model to simulate cumulative harvests from a July-centered cohort of early-settlement-stage postlarvae from two parts of Florida Bay (western Florida Bay and northcentral Florida Bay), using historic temperature and salinity data from these areas. Very large year-to-year differences in simulated cumulative harvests were found for recruits from Whipray Basin. Year-to-year differences in simulated harvests of recruits from Johnson Key Basin were much smaller. In a complementary activity, generalized linear and additive models and intermittent, historic density records were used to develop an uninterrupted multi-year time series of monthly density estimates for juvenile rink shrimp in the Johnson Key Basin. The developed data series was based on relationships of density with environmental variables. The strongest relationship was with sea-surface temperature. Three other environmental variables (rainfall, water level at Everglades National Park Well P35, and mean wind speed) also contributed significantly to explaining variation in juvenile densities. Results of the simulation model and two of the three statistical models yielded similar interannual patterns for Johnson Key Basin. While it is not possible to say that one result validates the other, the concordance of the annual patterns from the two models is supportive of both approaches.

  12. Urban Expansion Modeling Approach Based on Multi-Agent System and Cellular Automata

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Y. N.; Yu, M. M.; Li, S. N.

    2018-04-01

    Urban expansion is a land-use change process that transforms non-urban land into urban land. This process results in the loss of natural vegetation and increase in impervious surfaces. Urban expansion also alters the hydrologic cycling, atmospheric circulation, and nutrient cycling processes and generates enormous environmental and social impacts. Urban expansion monitoring and modeling are crucial to understanding urban expansion process, mechanism, and its environmental impacts, and predicting urban expansion in future scenarios. Therefore, it is important to study urban expansion monitoring and modeling approaches. We proposed to simulate urban expansion by combining CA and MAS model. The proposed urban expansion model based on MSA and CA was applied to a case study area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, China. The results show that this model can capture urban expansion with good adaptability. The Kappa coefficient of the simulation results is 0.75, which indicated that the combination of MAS and CA offered the better simulation result.

  13. Science Based Human Reliability Analysis: Using Digital Nuclear Power Plant Simulators for Human Reliability Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth

    Nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators are proliferating in academic research institutions and national laboratories in response to the availability of affordable, digital simulator platforms. Accompanying the new research facilities is a renewed interest in using data collected in NPP simulators for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) research. An experiment conducted in The Ohio State University (OSU) NPP Simulator Facility develops data collection methods and analytical tools to improve use of simulator data in HRA. In the pilot experiment, student operators respond to design basis accidents in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility. Thirty-three undergraduate and graduate engineering students participated in the research. Following each accident scenario, student operators completed a survey about perceived simulator biases and watched a video of the scenario. During the video, they periodically recorded their perceived strength of significant Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) such as Stress. This dissertation reviews three aspects of simulator-based research using the data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility: First, a qualitative comparison of student operator performance to computer simulations of expected operator performance generated by the Information Decision Action Crew (IDAC) HRA method. Areas of comparison include procedure steps, timing of operator actions, and PSFs. Second, development of a quantitative model of the simulator bias introduced by the simulator environment. Two types of bias are defined: Environmental Bias and Motivational Bias. This research examines Motivational Bias--that is, the effect of the simulator environment on an operator's motivations, goals, and priorities. A bias causal map is introduced to model motivational bias interactions in the OSU experiment. Data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility are analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Data include crew characteristics, operator surveys, and time to recognize and diagnose the accident in the scenario. These models estimate how the effects of the scenario conditions are mediated by simulator bias, and demonstrate how to quantify the strength of the simulator bias. Third, development of a quantitative model of subjective PSFs based on objective data (plant parameters, alarms, etc.) and PSF values reported by student operators. The objective PSF model is based on the PSF network in the IDAC HRA method. The final model is a mixed effects Bayesian hierarchical linear regression model. The subjective PSF model includes three factors: The Environmental PSF, the simulator Bias, and the Context. The Environmental Bias is mediated by an operator sensitivity coefficient that captures the variation in operator reactions to plant conditions. The data collected in the pilot experiments are not expected to reflect professional NPP operator performance, because the students are still novice operators. However, the models used in this research and the methods developed to analyze them demonstrate how to consider simulator bias in experiment design and how to use simulator data to enhance the technical basis of a complex HRA method. The contributions of the research include a framework for discussing simulator bias, a quantitative method for estimating simulator bias, a method for obtaining operator-reported PSF values, and a quantitative method for incorporating the variability in operator perception into PSF models. The research demonstrates applications of Structural Equation Modeling and hierarchical Bayesian linear regression models in HRA. Finally, the research demonstrates the benefits of using student operators as a test platform for HRA research.

  14. Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

  15. Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

    2016-02-01

    Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

  16. A hierarchical approach for simulating northern forest dynamics

    Treesearch

    Don C. Bragg; David W. Roberts; Thomas R. Crow

    2004-01-01

    Complexity in ecological systems has challenged forest simulation modelers for years, resulting in a number of approaches with varying degrees of success. Arguments in favor of hierarchical modeling are made, especially for considering a complex environmental issue like widespread eastern hemlock regeneration failure. We present the philosophy and basic framework for...

  17. Assessment of methods for methyl iodide emission reduction and pest control using a simulation model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Various methods have been developed to reduce atmospheric emissions from the agricultural use of highly volatile pesticides and mitigate their adverse environmental effects. The effectiveness of various methods on emissions reduction and pest control was assessed using simulation model in this study...

  18. The Virtual Liver Project: Modeling Tissue Response To Chemicals Through Multiscale Simulation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA Virtual Liver Project is aimed at simulating the risk of toxic effects from environmental chemicals in silico. The computational systems model of organ injury due to chronic chemical exposure is based on: (i) the dynamics of perturbed molecular pathways, (ii) their lin...

  19. Evaluating the accuracy of VEMAP daily weather data for application in crop simulations on a regional scale

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Weather plays a critical role in eco-environmental and agricultural systems. Limited availability of meteorological records often constrains the applications of simulation models and related decision support tools. The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) provides daily weather...

  20. Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Despite increased interest in watershed scale model simulations, literature lacks application of long-term data in fuzzy logic simulations and comparing outputs with physically based models such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender). The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy...

  1. Using Voice Recognition Equipment to Run the Warfare Environmental Simulator (WES),

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-03-01

    simulations and models are often used. War games are a type of simulation frequently used by the military to evaluate C3 effectiveness. Through the use of a...to 162 words or short phrases (Appendix B). B. EQUIPMENT USED 1. Hardware Description [13] For the experiment a Threshold Model T600 discrete... Model T600 terminal used in this experiment con- sists of an analog speech preprocessor, microcomputer, CRT/keyboard unit, magnetic tape cartridge unit

  2. Decision support for environmental management of industrial non-hazardous secondary materials: New analytical methods combined with simulation and optimization modeling.

    PubMed

    Little, Keith W; Koralegedara, Nadeesha H; Northeim, Coleen M; Al-Abed, Souhail R

    2017-07-01

    Non-hazardous solid materials from industrial processes, once regarded as waste and disposed in landfills, offer numerous environmental and economic advantages when put to beneficial uses (BUs). Proper management of these industrial non-hazardous secondary materials (INSM) requires estimates of their probable environmental impacts among disposal as well as BU options. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently approved new analytical methods (EPA Methods 1313-1316) to assess leachability of constituents of potential concern in these materials. These new methods are more realistic for many disposal and BU options than historical methods, such as the toxicity characteristic leaching protocol. Experimental data from these new methods are used to parameterize a chemical fate and transport (F&T) model to simulate long-term environmental releases from flue gas desulfurization gypsum (FGDG) when disposed of in an industrial landfill or beneficially used as an agricultural soil amendment. The F&T model is also coupled with optimization algorithms, the Beneficial Use Decision Support System (BUDSS), under development by EPA to enhance INSM management. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Parameterisation of Biome BGC to assess forest ecosystems in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gautam, Sishir; Pietsch, Stephan A.

    2010-05-01

    African forest ecosystems are an important environmental and economic resource. Several studies show that tropical forests are critical to society as economic, environmental and societal resources. Tropical forests are carbon dense and thus play a key role in climate change mitigation. Unfortunately, the response of tropical forests to environmental change is largely unknown owing to insufficient spatially extensive observations. Developing regions like Africa where records of forest management for long periods are unavailable the process-based ecosystem simulation model - BIOME BGC could be a suitable tool to explain forest ecosystem dynamics. This ecosystem simulation model uses descriptive input parameters to establish the physiology, biochemistry, structure, and allocation patterns within vegetation functional types, or biomes. Undocumented parameters for larger-resolution simulations are currently the major limitations to regional modelling in African forest ecosystems. This study was conducted to document input parameters for BIOME-BGC for major natural tropical forests in the Congo basin. Based on available literature and field measurements updated values for turnover and mortality, allometry, carbon to nitrogen ratios, allocation of plant material to labile, cellulose, and lignin pools, tree morphology and other relevant factors were assigned. Daily climate input data for the model applications were generated using the statistical weather generator MarkSim. The forest was inventoried at various sites and soil samples of corresponding stands across Gabon were collected. Carbon and nitrogen in the collected soil samples were determined from soil analysis. The observed tree volume, soil carbon and soil nitrogen were then compared with the simulated model outputs to evaluate the model performance. Furthermore, the simulation using Congo Basin specific parameters and generalised BIOME BGC parameters for tropical evergreen broadleaved tree species were also executed and the simulated results compared. Once the model was optimised for forests in the Congo basin it was validated against observed tree volume, soil carbon and soil nitrogen from a set of independent plots.

  4. Higher-level simulations of turbulent flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ferziger, J. H.

    1981-01-01

    The fundamentals of large eddy simulation are considered and the approaches to it are compared. Subgrid scale models and the development of models for the Reynolds-averaged equations are discussed as well as the use of full simulation in testing these models. Numerical methods used in simulating large eddies, the simulation of homogeneous flows, and results from full and large scale eddy simulations of such flows are examined. Free shear flows are considered with emphasis on the mixing layer and wake simulation. Wall-bounded flow (channel flow) and recent work on the boundary layer are also discussed. Applications of large eddy simulation and full simulation in meteorological and environmental contexts are included along with a look at the direction in which work is proceeding and what can be expected from higher-level simulation in the future.

  5. Decision Support for Environmental Management of Industrial ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Non-hazardous solid materials from industrial processes, once regarded as waste and disposed in landfills, offer numerous environmental and economic advantages when put to beneficial uses (BUs). Proper management of these industrial non-hazardous secondary materials (INSM) requires estimates of their probable environmental impacts among disposal as well as BU options. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently approved new analytical methods (EPA Methods 1313–1316) to assess leachability of constituents of potential concern in these materials. These new methods are more realistic for many disposal and BU options than historical methods, such as the toxicity characteristic leaching protocol. Experimental data from these new methods are used to parameterize a chemical fate and transport (F&T) model to simulate long-term environmental releases from flue gas desulfurization gypsum (FGDG) when disposed of in an industrial landfill or beneficially used as an agricultural soil amendment. The F&T model is also coupled with optimization algorithms, the Beneficial Use Decision Support System (BUDSS), under development by EPA to enhance INSM management. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the methodologies and encourage similar applications to improve environmental management and BUs of INSM through F&T simulation coupled with optimization, using realistic model parameterization.

  6. Pesticide Environmental Fate Research for the 21st Century: Building Bridges Between Laboratory and Field Studies at Varying Scales

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Accurate determination of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) is a continuing and often elusive goal of pesticide risk assessment. PECs are typically derived using simulation models that depend on laboratory generated data for key input parameters (t1/2, Koc, etc.). Model flexibility in ...

  7. Pesticide Environmental Fate Research for the 21st Century: Building Bridges Between Laboratory and Field Studies at Varying Scales

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Accurate determination of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) is a continuing and often elusive goal of pesticide risk assessment. PECs are typically derived using simulation models that depend on laboratory generated data for key input parameters (t1/2, Koc, etc.). Model flexibility in ev...

  8. Development and evaluation of the bacterial fate and transport module for the agricultural policy/environmental extender (APEX) model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) is a watershed-scale water quality model that includes detailed representation of agricultural management but currently does not have microbial fate and transport simulation capabilities. The objective of this work was to develop a process-based ...

  9. Uncertainty analysis in ecological studies: an overview

    Treesearch

    Harbin Li; Jianguo Wu

    2006-01-01

    Large-scale simulation models are essential tools for scientific research and environmental decision-making because they can be used to synthesize knowledge, predict consequences of potential scenarios, and develop optimal solutions (Clark et al. 2001, Berk et al. 2002, Katz 2002). Modeling is often the only means of addressing complex environmental problems that occur...

  10. Sandia’s Current Energy Conversion module for the Flexible-Mesh Delft3D flow solver v. 1.0

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chartand, Chris; Jagers, Bert

    The DOE has funded Sandia National Labs (SNL) to develop an open-source modeling tool to guide the design and layout of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) arrays to maximize power production while minimizing environmental effects. This modeling framework simulates flows through and around a MHK arrays while quantifying environmental responses. As an augmented version of the Dutch company, Deltares’s, environmental hydrodynamics code, Delft3D, SNL-Delft3D-CEC-FM includes a new module that simulates energy conversion (momentum withdrawal) by MHK current energy conversion devices with commensurate changes in the turbulent kinetic energy and its dissipation rate. SNL-Delft3D-CEC-FM modified the Delft3D flexible mesh flow solver, DFlowFM.

  11. How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

    Treesearch

    C.R. Schwalm; D.N. Huntzinger; R.B. Cook; Y. Wei; I.T. Baker; R.P. Neilson; B. Poulter; Peter Caldwell; G. Sun; H.Q. Tian; N. Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we...

  12. ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING CHALLENGES WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper discusses the status and application of Computational Fluid Dynamics )CFD) models to address environmental engineering challenges for more detailed understanding of air pollutant source emissions, atmospheric dispersion and resulting human exposure. CFD simulations ...

  13. Meet EPA Environmental Engineer Terra Haxton, Ph.D.

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA Environmental Engineer Terra Haxton, Ph.D., uses computer simulation models to protect drinking water. She investigates approaches to help water utilities be better prepared to respond to contamination incidents in their distribution systems.

  14. Correlated seed failure as an environmental veto to synchronize reproduction of masting plants.

    PubMed

    Bogdziewicz, Michał; Steele, Michael A; Marino, Shealyn; Crone, Elizabeth E

    2018-07-01

    Variable, synchronized seed production, called masting, is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants. Resource dynamics, pollination success, and, as described here, environmental veto are possible proximate mechanisms driving masting. We explored the environmental veto hypothesis, which assumes that reproductive synchrony is driven by external factors preventing reproduction in some years, by extending the resource budget model of masting with correlated reproductive failure. We ran this model across its parameter space to explore how key parameters interact to drive seeding dynamics. Next, we parameterized the model based on 16 yr of seed production data for populations of red (Quercus rubra) and white (Quercus alba) oaks. We used these empirical models to simulate seeding dynamics, and compared simulated time series with patterns observed in the field. Simulations showed that resource dynamics and reproduction failure can produce masting even in the absence of pollen coupling. In concordance with this, in both oaks, among-year variation in resource gain and correlated reproductive failure were necessary and sufficient to reproduce masting, whereas pollen coupling, although present, was not necessary. Reproductive failure caused by environmental veto may drive large-scale synchronization without density-dependent pollen limitation. Reproduction-inhibiting weather events are prevalent in ecosystems, making described mechanisms likely to operate in many systems. © 2018 The Authors New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

  15. Computer modeling describes gravity-related adaptation in cell cultures.

    PubMed

    Alexandrov, Ludmil B; Alexandrova, Stoyana; Usheva, Anny

    2009-12-16

    Questions about the changes of biological systems in response to hostile environmental factors are important but not easy to answer. Often, the traditional description with differential equations is difficult due to the overwhelming complexity of the living systems. Another way to describe complex systems is by simulating them with phenomenological models such as the well-known evolutionary agent-based model (EABM). Here we developed an EABM to simulate cell colonies as a multi-agent system that adapts to hyper-gravity in starvation conditions. In the model, the cell's heritable characteristics are generated and transferred randomly to offspring cells. After a qualitative validation of the model at normal gravity, we simulate cellular growth in hyper-gravity conditions. The obtained data are consistent with previously confirmed theoretical and experimental findings for bacterial behavior in environmental changes, including the experimental data from the microgravity Atlantis and the Hypergravity 3000 experiments. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to utilize an EABM with realistic qualitative description to examine the effects of hypergravity and starvation on complex cellular entities.

  16. Wake Vortex Prediction Models for Decay and Transport Within Stratified Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Switzer, George F.; Proctor, Fred H.

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes two simple models to predict vortex transport and decay. The models are determined empirically from results of three-dimensional large eddy simulations, and are applicable to wake vortices out of ground effect and not subjected to environmental winds. The results, from the large eddy simulations assume a range of ambient turbulence and stratification levels. The models and the results from the large eddy simulations support the hypothesis that the decay of the vortex hazard is decoupled from its change in descent rate.

  17. Physiological system integrations with emphasis on the respiratory-cardiovascular system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, R. R.

    1975-01-01

    The integration of two types of physiological system simulations is presented. The long term model is a circulatory system model which simulates long term blood flow variations and compartmental fluid shifts. The short term models simulate transient phenomena of the respiratory, thermoregulatory, and pulsatile cardiovascular systems as they respond to stimuli such as LBNP, exercise, and environmental gaseous variations. An overview of the interfacing approach is described. Descriptions of the variable interface for long term to short term and between the three short term models are given.

  18. Study report on combining diagnostic and therapeutic considerations with subsystem and whole-body simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Furukawa, S.

    1975-01-01

    Current applications of simulation models for clinical research described included tilt model simulation of orthostatic intolerance with hemorrhage, and modeling long term circulatory circulation. Current capabilities include: (1) simulation of analogous pathological states and effects of abnormal environmental stressors by the manipulation of system variables and changing inputs in various sequences; (2) simulation of time courses of responses of controlled variables by the altered inputs and their relationships; (3) simulation of physiological responses of treatment such as isotonic saline transfusion; (4) simulation of the effectiveness of a treatment as well as the effects of complication superimposed on an existing pathological state; and (5) comparison of the effectiveness of various treatments/countermeasures for a given pathological state. The feasibility of applying simulation models to diagnostic and therapeutic research problems is assessed.

  19. POLICY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH USING SIMULATION TO ASSESS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Uchitel, Kirsten; Tanana, Heather

    This report examines the relationship between simulation-based science and judicial assessments of simulations or models supporting evaluations of environmental harms or risks, considering both how it exists currently and how it might be shaped in the future. This report considers the legal standards relevant to judicial assessments of simulation-based science and provides examples of the judicial application of those legal standards. Next, this report discusses the factors that inform whether there is a correlation between the sophistication of a challenged simulation and judicial support for that simulation. Finally, this report examines legal analysis of the broader issues that must bemore » addressed for simulation-based science to be better understood and utilized in the context of judicial challenge and evaluation. !« less

  20. Hysteresis in simulations of malaria transmission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, Teresa K.; Qiu, Xin; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2017-10-01

    Malaria transmission is a complex system and in many parts of the world is closely related to climate conditions. However, studies on environmental determinants of malaria generally consider only concurrent climate conditions and ignore the historical or initial conditions of the system. Here, we demonstrate the concept of hysteresis in malaria transmission, defined as non-uniqueness of the relationship between malaria prevalence and concurrent climate conditions. We show the dependence of simulated malaria transmission on initial prevalence and the initial level of human immunity in the population. Using realistic time series of environmental variables, we quantify the effect of hysteresis in a modeled population. In a set of numerical experiments using HYDREMATS, a field-tested mechanistic model of malaria transmission, the simulated maximum malaria prevalence depends on both the initial prevalence and the initial level of human immunity in the population. We found the effects of initial conditions to be of comparable magnitude to the effects of interannual variability in environmental conditions in determining malaria prevalence. The memory associated with this hysteresis effect is longer in high transmission settings than in low transmission settings. Our results show that efforts to simulate and forecast malaria transmission must consider the exposure history of a location as well as the concurrent environmental drivers.

  1. The High-Throughput Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model (SHEDS-HT) & The Chemical and Products Database (CPDat)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model – High-Throughput (SHEDS-HT) is a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency research tool for predicting screening-level (low-tier) exposures to chemicals in consumer products. This course will present an overview of this m...

  2. Investigation of Effects of Varying Model Inputs on Mercury Deposition Estimates in the Southwest US

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.7.1 was used to simulate mercury wet and dry deposition for a domain covering the continental United States (US). The simulations used MM5-derived meteorological input fields and the US Environmental Protection Agency (E...

  3. Addressing multi-use issues in sustainable forest management with signal-transfer modeling

    Treesearch

    Robert J. Luxmoore; William W. Hargrove; M. Lynn Tharp; W. Mac Post; Michael W. Berry; Karen S. Minser; Wendell P. Cropper; Dale W. Johnson; Boris Zeide; Ralph L. Amateis; Harold E. Burkhart; V. Clark Baldwin; Kelly D. Peterson

    2002-01-01

    Management decisions concerning impacts of projected changes in environmental and social conditions on multi-use forest products and services, such as productivity, water supply or carbon sequestration, may be facilitated with signal-transfer modeling. This simulation method utilizes a hierarchy of simulators in which the integrated responses (signals) from smaller-...

  4. THE DOE COMPLEX-WIDE VADOSE ZONE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: CHARACTERIZATION MODELING AND SIMULATION OF SUBSURFACE CONTAMINANT FATE AND TRANSPORT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Idaho National Engineering & Environmental Lab (INEEL) was charged by DOE EM to develop a complex-wide science and technology roadmap for the characterization, modeling and simulation of the fate and transport of contamination in the vadose zone. Various types of hazardous, r...

  5. Simulating indoor concentrations of NO(2) and PM(2.5) in multifamily housing for use in health-based intervention modeling.

    PubMed

    Fabian, P; Adamkiewicz, G; Levy, J I

    2012-02-01

    Residents of low-income multifamily housing can have elevated exposures to multiple environmental pollutants known to influence asthma. Simulation models can characterize the health implications of changing indoor concentrations, but quantifying the influence of interventions on concentrations is challenging given complex airflow and source characteristics. In this study, we simulated concentrations in a prototype multifamily building using CONTAM, a multizone airflow and contaminant transport program. Contaminants modeled included PM(2.5) and NO(2) , and parameters included stove use, presence and operability of exhaust fans, smoking, unit level, and building leakiness. We developed regression models to explain variability in CONTAM outputs for individual sources, in a manner that could be utilized in simulation modeling of health outcomes. To evaluate our models, we generated a database of 1000 simulated households with characteristics consistent with Boston public housing developments and residents and compared the predicted levels of NO(2) and PM(2.5) and their correlates with the literature. Our analyses demonstrated that CONTAM outputs could be readily explained by available parameters (R(2) between 0.89 and 0.98 across models), but that one-compartment box models would mischaracterize concentrations and source contributions. Our study quantifies the key drivers for indoor concentrations in multifamily housing and helps to identify opportunities for interventions. Many low-income urban asthmatics live in multifamily housing that may be amenable to ventilation-related interventions such as weatherization or air sealing, wall and ceiling hole repairs, and exhaust fan installation or repair, but such interventions must be designed carefully given their cost and their offsetting effects on energy savings as well as indoor and outdoor pollutants. We developed models to take into account the complex behavior of airflow patterns in multifamily buildings, which can be used to identify and evaluate environmental and non-environmental interventions targeting indoor air pollutants which can trigger asthma exacerbations. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  6. A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental conditions and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests

    Treesearch

    Shuhua Yi; A. David McGuire; Eric Kasischke; Jennifer Harden; Kristen Manies; Michelle Mack; Merritt Turetsky

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem models have not comprehensively considered how interactions among fire disturbance, soil environmental conditions, and biogeochemical processes affect ecosystem dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems. In this study, we implemented a dynamic organic soil structure in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to investigate the effects of fire on soil temperature...

  7. Simulation and Modeling Capability for Standard Modular Hydropower Technology

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stewart, Kevin M.; Smith, Brennan T.; Witt, Adam M.

    Grounded in the stakeholder-validated framework established in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s SMH Exemplary Design Envelope Specification, this report on Simulation and Modeling Capability for Standard Modular Hydropower (SMH) Technology provides insight into the concepts, use cases, needs, gaps, and challenges associated with modeling and simulating SMH technologies. The SMH concept envisions a network of generation, passage, and foundation modules that achieve environmentally compatible, cost-optimized hydropower using standardization and modularity. The development of standardized modeling approaches and simulation techniques for SMH (as described in this report) will pave the way for reliable, cost-effective methods for technology evaluation, optimization, and verification.

  8. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    PubMed

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  9. Some aspects of cadmium flow in the U.S.

    PubMed Central

    Yost, K J

    1979-01-01

    A team of Purdue University engineers and scientists has been involved in studying sources, translocation mechanisms, and fate of cadmium in the environment. One of the principal results of this work has been the development of a cadmium flow model for the U. S. which involves simulating sources, use patterns, waste treatment and recovery techniques, waste disposal options, and environmental flow mechanisms. A series of model calculations performed specify cadmium environmental flow, fate, and human exposure for a variety of use pattern, waste treatment/recovery, and disposal scenarios over a ten-year-simulation period. PMID:488047

  10. Delivering better power: the role of simulation in reducing the environmental impact of aircraft engines.

    PubMed

    Menzies, Kevin

    2014-08-13

    The growth in simulation capability over the past 20 years has led to remarkable changes in the design process for gas turbines. The availability of relatively cheap computational power coupled to improvements in numerical methods and physical modelling in simulation codes have enabled the development of aircraft propulsion systems that are more powerful and yet more efficient than ever before. However, the design challenges are correspondingly greater, especially to reduce environmental impact. The simulation requirements to achieve a reduced environmental impact are described along with the implications of continued growth in available computational power. It is concluded that achieving the environmental goals will demand large-scale multi-disciplinary simulations requiring significantly increased computational power, to enable optimization of the airframe and propulsion system over the entire operational envelope. However even with massive parallelization, the limits imposed by communications latency will constrain the time required to achieve a solution, and therefore the position of such large-scale calculations in the industrial design process. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  11. Space-based Ornithology-Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, James; Deppe, Jill

    2008-01-01

    Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

  12. Designing environmental campaigns by using agent-based simulations: strategies for changing environmental attitudes.

    PubMed

    Mosler, Hans-Joachim; Martens, Thomas

    2008-09-01

    Agent-based computer simulation was used to create artificial communities in which each individual was constructed according to the principles of the elaboration likelihood model of Petty and Cacioppo [1986. The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. In: Berkowitz, L. (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Academic Press, New York, NY, pp. 123-205]. Campaigning strategies and community characteristics were varied systematically to understand and test their impact on attitudes towards environmental protection. The results show that strong arguments influence a green (environmentally concerned) population with many contacts most effectively, while peripheral cues have the greatest impact on a non-green population with fewer contacts. Overall, deeper information scrutiny increases the impact of strong arguments but is especially important for convincing green populations. Campaigns involving person-to-person communication are superior to mass-media campaigns because they can be adapted to recipients' characteristics.

  13. Evaluation of two evapotranspiration approaches simulated with the CSM-CERES-Maize model under different irrigation strategies and the impact on maize growth, development and soil moisture content for semi-arid conditions

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Water deficit is the most common adverse environmental condition that can seriously reduce crop productivity. Crop simulation models could assist in determining alternate crop management scenarios to deal with water-limited conditions. However, prior to the application of crop models, the appropriat...

  14. Mathematical modeling and simulation of the space shuttle imaging radar antennas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, R. W.; Melick, K. E.; Coffey, E. L., III

    1978-01-01

    Simulations of space shuttle synthetic aperture radar antennas under the influence of space environmental conditions were carried out at L, C, and X-band. Mathematical difficulties in modeling large, non-planar array antennas are discussed, and an approximate modeling technique is presented. Results for several antenna error conditions are illustrated in far-field profile patterns, earth surface footprint contours, and summary graphs.

  15. Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change

    Treesearch

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Martin A. Spetich; Jacob S. Fraser

    2018-01-01

    Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are notwell represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts.We investigate how species biological...

  16. Acoustic Tomographic Estimate of Ocean Advective Heat Flux: A Numerical Assessment in the Norwegian Sea

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-06-01

    of transceivers used and the characteristics of the sound channel. In the assessment we use the General Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ), a...sound channel. In the assessment we use the General Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ), a climatological data base, to simulate an ocean area 550 x 550...34 3. GDEM Data Base

  17. Modelling crop yield, soil organic C and P under variable long-term fertilizer management in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jie; Xu, Guang; Xu, Minggang; Balkovič, Juraj; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Wang, Jinzhou; Yu, Chaoqing

    2016-04-01

    Phosphorus (P) is a major limiting nutrient for plant growth. P, as a nonrenewable resource and the controlling factor of aquatic entrophication, is critical for food security and human future, and concerns sustainable resource use and environmental impacts. It is thus essential to find an integrated and effective approach to optimize phosphorus fertilizer application in the agro-ecosystem while maintaining crop yield and minimizing environmental risk. Crop P models have been used to simulate plant-soil interactions but are rarely validated with scattered long-term fertilizer control field experiments. We employed a process-based model named Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC) to simulate grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil available P based upon 8 field experiments in China with 11 years dataset, representing the typical Chinese soil types and agro-ecosystems of different regions. 4 treatments, including N, P, and K fertilizer (NPK), no fertilizer (CK), N and K fertilizer (NK) and N, P, K and manure (NPKM) were measured and modelled. A series of sensitivity tests were conducted to analyze the sensitivity of grain yields and soil available P to sequential fertilizer rates in typical humid, normal and drought years. Our results indicated that the EPIC model showed a significant agreement for simulating grain yields with R2=0.72, index of agreement (d)=0.87, modeling efficiency (EF)=0.68, p<0.01 and SOC with R2=0.70, d=0.86, EF=0.59, and p<0.01. EPIC can well simulate soil available P moderately and capture the temporal changes in soil P reservoirs. Both of Crop yields and soil available were found more sensitive to the fertilizer P rates in humid than drought year and soil available P is closely linked to concentrated rainfall. This study concludes that EPIC model has great potential to simulate the P cycle in croplands in China and can explore the optimum management practices.

  18. Dry matter partitioning models for the simulation of individual fruit growth in greenhouse cucumber canopies

    PubMed Central

    Wiechers, Dirk; Kahlen, Katrin; Stützel, Hartmut

    2011-01-01

    Background and Aims Growth imbalances between individual fruits are common in indeterminate plants such as cucumber (Cucumis sativus). In this species, these imbalances can be related to differences in two growth characteristics, fruit growth duration until reaching a given size and fruit abortion. Both are related to distribution, and environmental factors as well as canopy architecture play a key role in their differentiation. Furthermore, events leading to a fruit reaching its harvestable size before or simultaneously with a prior fruit can be observed. Functional–structural plant models (FSPMs) allow for interactions between environmental factors, canopy architecture and physiological processes. Here, we tested hypotheses which account for these interactions by introducing dominance and abortion thresholds for the partitioning of assimilates between growing fruits. Methods Using the L-System formalism, an FSPM was developed which combined a model for architectural development, a biochemical model of photosynthesis and a model for assimilate partitioning, the last including a fruit growth model based on a size-related potential growth rate (RP). Starting from a distribution proportional to RP, the model was extended by including abortion and dominance. Abortion was related to source strength and dominance to sink strength. Both thresholds were varied to test their influence on fruit growth characteristics. Simulations were conducted for a dense row and a sparse isometric canopy. Key Results The simple partitioning models failed to simulate individual fruit growth realistically. The introduction of abortion and dominance thresholds gave the best results. Simulations of fruit growth durations and abortion rates were in line with measurements, and events in which a fruit was harvestable earlier than an older fruit were reproduced. Conclusions Dominance and abortion events need to be considered when simulating typical fruit growth traits. By integrating environmental factors, the FSPM can be a valuable tool to analyse and improve existing knowledge about the dynamics of assimilates partitioning. PMID:21715366

  19. A Nonlinear differential equation model of Asthma effect of environmental pollution using LHAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joseph, G. Arul; Balamuralitharan, S.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we investigated a nonlinear differential equation mathematical model to study the spread of asthma in the environmental pollutants from industry and mainly from tobacco smoke from smokers in different type of population. Smoking is the main cause to spread Asthma in the environment. Numerical simulation is also discussed. Finally by using Liao’s Homotopy analysis Method (LHAM), we found that the approximate analytical solution of Asthmatic disease in the environmental.

  20. Simulating adaptive wood harvest in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Nabel, Julia; Pongratz, Julia

    2016-04-01

    The world's forest experience substantial carbon exchange fluxes between land and atmosphere. Large carbon sinks occur in response to changes in environmental conditions (such as climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations), removing about one quarter of current anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Large sinks also occur due to regrowth of forest on areas of agricultural abandonment or forest management. Forest management, on the other hand, also leads to substantial amounts of carbon being eventually released to the atmosphere. Both sinks and sources attributable to forests are therefore dependent on the intensity of management. Forest management in turn depends on the availability of resources, which is influenced by environmental conditions and sustainability of management systems applied. Estimating future carbon fluxes therefore requires accounting for the interaction of environmental conditions, forest growth, and management. However, this interaction is not fully captured by current modeling approaches: Earth system models depict in detail interactions between climate, the carbon cycle, and vegetation growth, but use prescribed information on management. Resource needs and land management, however, are simulated by Integrated Assessment Models that typically only have coarse representations of the influence of environmental changes on vegetation growth and are typically based on the demand for wood driven by regional population growth and energy needs. Here we present a study that provides the link between environmental conditions, forest growth and management. We extend the land component JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to simulate potential wood harvest in response to altered growth conditions and thus as adaptive to changing climate and CO2 conditions. We apply the altered model to estimate potential wood harvest for future climates (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) for the management scenario of "sustained yields" (SY), i.e. that wood harvest is not allowed to reduce wood carbon stocks below their present-day average state. We find that the potentials for SY range from about 420 to 610 PgC cumulatively until 2100 depending on assumed future climate (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 or 8.5). They are thus substantially higher than the harvest prescribed in the context of the same RCPs for the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which ranged from about 130 to 210 PgC. The underlying drivers of the higher potentials of SY as compared to the RCP harvest are in all scenarios foremost avoided natural mortality, followed by avoided losses due to fire and windbreak. Further, usage of the increase in forest carbon stocks simulated with time under RCP harvest plays a large role in the first decades of the 21st century. The potential wood harvest that we simulate accounting for environmental changes does not include considerations on biodiversity and other ecosystem services or technical feasibility. However, the substantially higher simulated harvest from SY as compared to that prescribed from the RCPs and the difference found between climate scenarios highlights the need to account for effects of environmental changes on vegetation growth also in socio-economic models and thus the need for a consistent representation of climate-landuse interactions.

  1. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R. Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y.; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes. PMID:20623002

  2. A novel approach to simulate gene-environment interactions in complex diseases.

    PubMed

    Amato, Roberto; Pinelli, Michele; D'Andrea, Daniel; Miele, Gennaro; Nicodemi, Mario; Raiconi, Giancarlo; Cocozza, Sergio

    2010-01-05

    Complex diseases are multifactorial traits caused by both genetic and environmental factors. They represent the major part of human diseases and include those with largest prevalence and mortality (cancer, heart disease, obesity, etc.). Despite a large amount of information that has been collected about both genetic and environmental risk factors, there are few examples of studies on their interactions in epidemiological literature. One reason can be the incomplete knowledge of the power of statistical methods designed to search for risk factors and their interactions in these data sets. An improvement in this direction would lead to a better understanding and description of gene-environment interactions. To this aim, a possible strategy is to challenge the different statistical methods against data sets where the underlying phenomenon is completely known and fully controllable, for example simulated ones. We present a mathematical approach that models gene-environment interactions. By this method it is possible to generate simulated populations having gene-environment interactions of any form, involving any number of genetic and environmental factors and also allowing non-linear interactions as epistasis. In particular, we implemented a simple version of this model in a Gene-Environment iNteraction Simulator (GENS), a tool designed to simulate case-control data sets where a one gene-one environment interaction influences the disease risk. The main aim has been to allow the input of population characteristics by using standard epidemiological measures and to implement constraints to make the simulator behaviour biologically meaningful. By the multi-logistic model implemented in GENS it is possible to simulate case-control samples of complex disease where gene-environment interactions influence the disease risk. The user has full control of the main characteristics of the simulated population and a Monte Carlo process allows random variability. A knowledge-based approach reduces the complexity of the mathematical model by using reasonable biological constraints and makes the simulation more understandable in biological terms. Simulated data sets can be used for the assessment of novel statistical methods or for the evaluation of the statistical power when designing a study.

  3. IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model.

    PubMed

    Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A

    2015-01-01

    Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a 'wild' genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors.

  4. A Biophysical Modeling Framework for Assessing the Environmental Impact of Biofuel Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Izaurradle, C.; Manowitz, D.; West, T. O.; Post, W. M.; Thomson, A. M.; Nichols, J.; Bandaru, V.; Williams, J. R.

    2009-12-01

    Long-term sustainability of a biofuel economy necessitates environmentally friendly biofuel production systems. We describe a biophysical modeling framework developed to understand and quantify the environmental value and impact (e.g. water balance, nutrients balance, carbon balance, and soil quality) of different biomass cropping systems. This modeling framework consists of three major components: 1) a Geographic Information System (GIS) based data processing system, 2) a spatially-explicit biophysical modeling approach, and 3) a user friendly information distribution system. First, we developed a GIS to manage the large amount of geospatial data (e.g. climate, land use, soil, and hydrograhy) and extract input information for the biophysical model. Second, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) biophysical model is used to predict the impact of various cropping systems and management intensities on productivity, water balance, and biogeochemical variables. Finally, a geo-database is developed to distribute the results of ecosystem service variables (e.g. net primary productivity, soil carbon balance, soil erosion, nitrogen and phosphorus losses, and N2O fluxes) simulated by EPIC for each spatial modeling unit online using PostgreSQL. We applied this framework in a Regional Intensive Management Area (RIMA) of 9 counties in Michigan. A total of 4,833 spatial units with relatively homogeneous biophysical properties were derived using SSURGO, Crop Data Layer, County, and 10-digit watershed boundaries. For each unit, EPIC was executed from 1980 to 2003 under 54 cropping scenarios (eg. corn, switchgrass, and hybrid poplar). The simulation results were compared with historical crop yields from USDA NASS. Spatial mapping of the results show high variability among different cropping scenarios in terms of the simulated ecosystem services variables. Overall, the framework developed in this study enables the incorporation of environmental factors into economic and life-cycle analysis in order to optimize biomass cropping production scenarios.

  5. Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Thompson, Frank R; Spetich, Martin A; Fraser, Jacob S

    2018-09-01

    Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear -1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Environmental Flow for Sungai Johor Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adilah, A. Kadir; Zulkifli, Yusop; Zainura, Z. Noor; Bakhiah, Baharim N.

    2018-03-01

    Sungai Johor estuary is a vital water body in the south of Johor and greatly affects the water quality in the Johor Straits. In the development of the hydrodynamic and water quality models for Sungai Johor estuary, the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model was selected. In this application, the EFDC hydrodynamic model was configured to simulate time varying surface elevation, velocity, salinity, and water temperature. The EFDC water quality model was configured to simulate dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammoniacal nitrogen (NH3-N), nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N), phosphate (PO4), and Chlorophyll a. The hydrodynamic and water quality model calibration was performed utilizing a set of site specific data acquired in January 2008. The simulated water temperature, salinity and DO showed good and fairly good agreement with observations. The calculated correlation coefficients between computed and observed temperature and salinity were lower compared with the water level. Sensitivity analysis was performed on hydrodynamic and water quality models input parameters to quantify their impact on modeling results such as water surface elevation, salinity and dissolved oxygen concentration. It is anticipated and recommended that the development of this model be continued to synthesize additional field data into the modeling process.

  7. Accounting for Parameter Uncertainty in Complex Atmospheric Models, With an Application to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swallow, B.; Rigby, M. L.; Rougier, J.; Manning, A.; Thomson, D.; Webster, H. N.; Lunt, M. F.; O'Doherty, S.

    2016-12-01

    In order to understand underlying processes governing environmental and physical phenomena, a complex mathematical model is usually required. However, there is an inherent uncertainty related to the parameterisation of unresolved processes in these simulators. Here, we focus on the specific problem of accounting for uncertainty in parameter values in an atmospheric chemical transport model. Systematic errors introduced by failing to account for these uncertainties have the potential to have a large effect on resulting estimates in unknown quantities of interest. One approach that is being increasingly used to address this issue is known as emulation, in which a large number of forward runs of the simulator are carried out, in order to approximate the response of the output to changes in parameters. However, due to the complexity of some models, it is often unfeasible to run large numbers of training runs that is usually required for full statistical emulators of the environmental processes. We therefore present a simplified model reduction method for approximating uncertainties in complex environmental simulators without the need for very large numbers of training runs. We illustrate the method through an application to the Met Office's atmospheric transport model NAME. We show how our parameter estimation framework can be incorporated into a hierarchical Bayesian inversion, and demonstrate the impact on estimates of UK methane emissions, using atmospheric mole fraction data. We conclude that accounting for uncertainties in the parameterisation of complex atmospheric models is vital if systematic errors are to be minimized and all relevant uncertainties accounted for. We also note that investigations of this nature can prove extremely useful in highlighting deficiencies in the simulator that might otherwise be missed.

  8. Simulating Exposure Concentrations of Engineered Nanomaterials in Surface Water Systems: WASP8

    EPA Science Inventory

    The unique properties of engineered nanomaterials led to their increased production and potential release into the environment. Currently available environmental fate models developed for traditional contaminants are limited in their ability to simulate nanomaterials’ envir...

  9. Simulation of the charge migration in DNA under irradiation with heavy ions.

    PubMed

    Belov, Oleg V; Boyda, Denis L; Plante, Ianik; Shirmovsky, Sergey Eh

    2015-01-01

    A computer model to simulate the processes of charge injection and migration through DNA after irradiation by a heavy charged particle was developed. The most probable sites of charge injection were obtained by merging spatial models of short DNA sequence and a single 1 GeV/u iron particle track simulated by the code RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks). Charge migration was simulated by using a quantum-classical nonlinear model of the DNA-charge system. It was found that charge migration depends on the environmental conditions. The oxidative damage in DNA occurring during hole migration was simulated concurrently, which allowed the determination of probable locations of radiation-induced DNA lesions.

  10. Modeling the impact of biota on polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) fate and transport in Lake Ontario using a population-based multi-compartment fugacity approach.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiangfei; Ng, Carla A; Small, Mitchell J

    2018-06-12

    Organisms have long been treated as receptors in exposure studies of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The influences of environmental pollution on organisms are well recognized. However, the impact of biota on PCB transport in an environmental system has not been considered in sufficient detail. In this study, a population-based multi-compartment fugacity model is developed by reconfiguring the organisms as populated compartments and reconstructing all the exchange processes between the organism compartments and environmental compartments, especially the previously ignored feedback routes from biota to the environment. We evaluate the model performance by simulating the PCB concentration distribution in Lake Ontario using published loading records. The lake system is divided into three environment compartments (air, water, and sediment) and several organism groups according to the dominant local biotic species. The comparison indicates that the simulated results are well-matched by a list of published field measurements from different years. We identify a new process, called Facilitated Biotic Intermedia Transport (FBIT), to describe the enhanced pollution transport that occurs between environmental media and organisms. As the hydrophobicity of PCB congener increases, the organism population exerts greater influence on PCB mass flows. In a high biomass scenario, the model simulation indicates significant FBIT effects and biotic storage effects with hydrophobic PCB congeners, which also lead to significant shifts in systemic contaminant exchange rates between organisms and the environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Evaluation of Watershed-Scale Simulations of In-Stream Pesticide Concentrations from Off-Target Spray Drift.

    PubMed

    Winchell, Michael F; Pai, Naresh; Brayden, Benjamin H; Stone, Chris; Whatling, Paul; Hanzas, John P; Stryker, Jody J

    2018-01-01

    The estimation of pesticide concentrations in surface water bodies is a critical component of the environmental risk assessment process required by regulatory agencies in North America, the European Union, and elsewhere. Pesticide transport to surface waters via deposition from off-field spray drift can be an important route of potential contamination. The spatial orientation of treated fields relative to receiving water bodies make prediction of off-target pesticide spray drift deposition and resulting aquatic estimated environmental concentrations (EECs) challenging at the watershed scale. The variability in wind conditions further complicates the simulation of the environmental processes leading to pesticide spray drift contributions to surface water. This study investigates the use of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for predicting concentrations of malathion (O,O-deimethyl thiophosphate of diethyl mercaptosuccinate) in a flowing water body when exposure is a result of off-target spray drift, and assesses the model's performance using a parameterization typical of a screening-level regulatory assessment. Six SWAT parameterizations, each including incrementally more site-specific data, are then evaluated to quantify changes in model performance. Results indicate that the SWAT model is an appropriate tool for simulating watershed scale concentrations of pesticides resulting from off-target spray drift deposition. The model predictions are significantly more accurate when the inputs and assumptions accurately reflect application practices and environmental conditions. Inclusion of detailed wind data had the most significant impact on improving model-predicted EECs in comparison to observed concentrations. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  12. Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: embedding PnET within LANDIS-II

    Treesearch

    A. De Bruijn; E.J. Gustafson; B.R. Sturtevant; J.R. Foster; B.R. Miranda; N.I. Lichti; D.F. Jacobs

    2014-01-01

    Ecological models built on phenomenological relationships and behavior of the past may not be robustunder novel conditions of the future because global changes are producing environmental conditions that forests have not experienced historically. We developed a new succession extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape model, PnET-Succession, to simulate forest growth...

  13. Integrated environmental monitoring and simulation system for use as a management decision support tool in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Fatta, D; Naoum, D; Loizidou, M

    2002-04-01

    Leachates are generated as a result of water or other liquid passing through waste at a landfill site. These contaminated liquids originate from a number of sources, including the water produced during the decomposition of the waste as well as rain-fall which penetrates the waste and dissolves the material with which it comes into contact. The penetration of the rain-water depends on the nature of the landfill (e.g. surface characteristics, type and quantity of vegetation, gradient of layers, etc). The uncontrolled infiltration of leachate into the vadose (unsaturated) zone and finally into the saturated zone (groundwater) is considered to be the most serious environmental impact of a landfill. In the present paper the water flow and the pollutant transport characteristics of the Ano Liosia Landfill site in Athens (Greece) were simulated by creating a model of groundwater flows and contaminant transport. A methodology for the model is presented. The model was then integrated into the Ecosim system which is a prototype funded by the EU, (Directorate General XIII: Telematics and Environment). This is an integrated environmental monitoring and modeling system, which supports the management of environmental planning in urban areas.

  14. European vegetation during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage-3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huntley, Brian; Alfano, Mary J. o.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Pollard, Dave; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.; de Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis; Grüger, Eberhard; Watts, Bill

    2003-03-01

    European vegetation during representative "warm" and "cold" intervals of stage-3 was inferred from pollen analytical data. The inferred vegetation differs in character and spatial pattern from that of both fully glacial and fully interglacial conditions and exhibits contrasts between warm and cold intervals, consistent with other evidence for stage-3 palaeoenvironmental fluctuations. European vegetation thus appears to have been an integral component of millennial environmental fluctuations during stage-3; vegetation responded to this scale of environmental change and through feedback mechanisms may have had effects upon the environment. The pollen-inferred vegetation was compared with vegetation simulated using the BIOME 3.5 vegetation model for climatic conditions simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM2) nested within a coupled global climate and vegetation model (GENESIS-BIOME). Despite some discrepancies in detail, both approaches capture the principal features of the present vegetation of Europe. The simulated vegetation for stage-3 differs markedly from that inferred from pollen analytical data, implying substantial discrepancy between the simulated climate and that actually prevailing. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the simulated climate is too warm and probably has too short a winter season. These discrepancies may reflect incorrect specification of sea surface temperature or sea-ice conditions and may be exacerbated by vegetation-climate feedback in the coupled global model.

  15. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Process Identification under Model Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, M.; Dai, H.; Walker, A. P.; Shi, L.; Yang, J.

    2015-12-01

    The environmental system consists of various physical, chemical, and biological processes, and environmental models are always built to simulate these processes and their interactions. For model building, improvement, and validation, it is necessary to identify important processes so that limited resources can be used to better characterize the processes. While global sensitivity analysis has been widely used to identify important processes, the process identification is always based on deterministic process conceptualization that uses a single model for representing a process. However, environmental systems are complex, and it happens often that a single process may be simulated by multiple alternative models. Ignoring the model uncertainty in process identification may lead to biased identification in that identified important processes may not be so in the real world. This study addresses this problem by developing a new method of global sensitivity analysis for process identification. The new method is based on the concept of Sobol sensitivity analysis and model averaging. Similar to the Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters, our new method evaluates variance change when a process is fixed at its different conceptualizations. The variance considers both parametric and model uncertainty using the method of model averaging. The method is demonstrated using a synthetic study of groundwater modeling that considers recharge process and parameterization process. Each process has two alternative models. Important processes of groundwater flow and transport are evaluated using our new method. The method is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems.

  16. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons - fate and long-range atmospheric transport studied using a global model, EMAC-SVOC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Octaviani, Mega; Tost, Holger; Lammel, Gerhard

    2017-04-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are emitted by incomplete combustion from fossil fuel, vehicles, and biomass burning. They may persist in environmental compartments, pose a health hazard and may bio accumulate along food chains. The ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model had been used to simulate global tropospheric, stratospheric chemistry and climate. In this study, we improve the model to include simulations of the transport and fate of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC). The EMAC-SVOC model takes into account essential environmental processes including gas-particle partitioning, dry and wet deposition, chemical and bio-degradation, and volatilization from sea surface, soils, vegetation, and snow. The model was evaluated against observational data in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and tropics, and further applied to study total environmental lifetime and long-range transport potential (LRTP) of PAHs. We selected four compounds for study, spanning a wide range of volatility, i.e., phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene. Several LRTP indicators were investigated, including the Arctic contamination potential, meridional spreading, and zonal and meridional fluxes to remote regions.

  17. Model-as-a-service (MaaS) using the cloud service innovation platform (CSIP)

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Cloud infrastructures for modelling activities such as data processing, performing environmental simulations, or conducting model calibrations/optimizations provide a cost effective alternative to traditional high performance computing approaches. Cloud-based modelling examples emerged into the more...

  18. Environmental Health Assessment for Pyrotechnic Perchlorate Elimination/Mitigation Program for M118/M119 Simulators

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-09-11

    evaluated. When toxicity data were not available, criteria were modeled using QSAR approaches. 3 Toxicology Report No. 87-XE-074Z-09C g. Potential...Environmental Health Assessment for Work Unit PYRO 06-08, Pyrotechnic Perchlorate Elimination/Mitigation Program for M118/M119 Simulators, Toxicology ...Directorate of Toxicology , Health Effects Research Program. He may be contacted at DSN (312) 584-7159 or commercial (410) 436-7159. FOR THE COMMANDER

  19. User's instructions for the cardiovascular Walters model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Croston, R. C.

    1973-01-01

    The model is a combined, steady-state cardiovascular and thermal model. It was originally developed for interactive use, but was converted to batch mode simulation for the Sigma 3 computer. The model has the purpose to compute steady-state circulatory and thermal variables in response to exercise work loads and environmental factors. During a computer simulation run, several selected variables are printed at each time step. End conditions are also printed at the completion of the run.

  20. Modeling the transport of chemical warfare agents and simulants in polymeric substrates for reactive decontamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pearl, Thomas; Mantooth, Brent; Varady, Mark; Willis, Matthew

    2014-03-01

    Chemical warfare agent simulants are often used for environmental testing in place of highly toxic agents. This work sets the foundation for modeling decontamination of absorbing polymeric materials with the focus on determining relationships between agents and simulants. The correlations of agents to simulants must consider the three way interactions in the chemical-material-decontaminant system where transport and reaction occur in polymer materials. To this end, diffusion modeling of the subsurface transport of simulants and live chemical warfare agents was conducted for various polymer systems (e.g., paint coatings) with and without reaction pathways with applied decontamination. The models utilized 1D and 2D finite difference diffusion and reaction models to simulate absorption and reaction in the polymers, and subsequent flux of the chemicals out of the polymers. Experimental data including vapor flux measurements and dynamic contact angle measurements were used to determine model input parameters. Through modeling, an understanding of the relationship of simulant to live chemical warfare agent was established, focusing on vapor emission of agents and simulants from materials.

  1. Combined PEST and Trial-Error approach to improve APEX calibration

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), a physically-based hydrologic model that simulates management impacts on the environment for small watersheds, requires improved understanding of the input parameters for improved simulations. However, most previously published studies used the ...

  2. Simulating fish assemblages in riverine networks

    EPA Science Inventory

    We describe a modeling approach for simulating assemblages of fish in riverine landscapes. The approach allows a user to determine the grain and extent of river networks within which fish populations reproduce, move, and survive in response to both environmental drivers and assem...

  3. 'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

    2016-04-01

    Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected static and interactive visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

  4. 'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

    2017-04-01

    Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

  5. `spup' - An R Package for Analysis of Spatial Uncertainty Propagation and Application to Trace Gas Emission Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawicka, K.; Breuer, L.; Houska, T.; Santabarbara Ruiz, I.; Heuvelink, G. B. M.

    2016-12-01

    Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty propagation analysis and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the `spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Here we will demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy-to-use tool to be applied even in a very complex study case, and that it can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support. As an example, we use the ecological LandscapeDNDC model to analyse propagation of uncertainties associated with spatial variability of the model driving forces such as rainfall, nitrogen deposition and fertilizer inputs. The uncertainty propagation is analysed for the prediction of emissions of N2O and CO2 for a German low mountainous, agriculturally developed catchment. The study tests the effect of spatial correlations on spatially aggregated model outputs, and could serve as an advice for developing best management practices and model improvement strategies.

  6. Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

    2016-06-01

    A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Discrete event simulation for exploring strategies: an urban water management case.

    PubMed

    Huang, Dong-Bin; Scholz, Roland W; Gujer, Willi; Chitwood, Derek E; Loukopoulos, Peter; Schertenleib, Roland; Siegrist, Hansruedi

    2007-02-01

    This paper presents a model structure aimed at offering an overview of the various elements of a strategy and exploring their multidimensional effects through time in an efficient way. It treats a strategy as a set of discrete events planned to achieve a certain strategic goal and develops a new form of causal networks as an interfacing component between decision makers and environment models, e.g., life cycle inventory and material flow models. The causal network receives a strategic plan as input in a discrete manner and then outputs the updated parameter sets to the subsequent environmental models. Accordingly, the potential dynamic evolution of environmental systems caused by various strategies can be stepwise simulated. It enables a way to incorporate discontinuous change in models for environmental strategy analysis, and enhances the interpretability and extendibility of a complex model by its cellular constructs. It is exemplified using an urban water management case in Kunming, a major city in Southwest China. By utilizing the presented method, the case study modeled the cross-scale interdependencies of the urban drainage system and regional water balance systems, and evaluated the effectiveness of various strategies for improving the situation of Dianchi Lake.

  8. A PROBABILISTIC EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FOR CHILDREN WHO CONTACT CCA-TREATED PLAYSETS AND DECKS USING THE STOCHASTIC HUMAN EXPOSURE AND DOSE SIMULATION (SHEDS) MODEL FOR THE WOOD PRESERVATIVE EXPOSURE SCENARIO

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has conducted a probabilistic exposure and dose assessment on the arsenic (As) and chromium (Cr) components of Chromated Copper Arsenate (CCA) using the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model for wood preservatives (SHEDS-Wood...

  9. Theoretical foundation for measuring the groundwater age distribution.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gardner, William Payton; Arnold, Bill Walter

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we use PFLOTRAN, a highly scalable, parallel, flow and reactive transport code to simulate the concentrations of 3H, 3He, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, SF6, 39Ar, 81Kr, 4He and themean groundwater age in heterogeneous fields on grids with an excess of 10 million nodes. We utilize this computational platform to simulate the concentration of multiple tracers in high-resolution, heterogeneous 2-D and 3-D domains, and calculate tracer-derived ages. Tracer-derived ages show systematic biases toward younger ages when the groundwater age distribution contains water older than the maximum tracer age. The deviation of the tracer-derived age distribution from the true groundwatermore » age distribution increases with increasing heterogeneity of the system. However, the effect of heterogeneity is diminished as the mean travel time gets closer the tracer age limit. Age distributions in 3-D domains differ significantly from 2-D domains. 3D simulations show decreased mean age, and less variance in age distribution for identical heterogeneity statistics. High-performance computing allows for investigation of tracer and groundwater age systematics in high-resolution domains, providing a platform for understanding and utilizing environmental tracer and groundwater age information in heterogeneous 3-D systems. Groundwater environmental tracers can provide important constraints for the calibration of groundwater flow models. Direct simulation of environmental tracer concentrations in models has the additional advantage of avoiding assumptions associated with using calculated groundwater age values. This study quantifies model uncertainty reduction resulting from the addition of environmental tracer concentration data. The analysis uses a synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and the calibration of a flow and transport model using the pilot point method. Results indicate a significant reduction in the uncertainty in permeability with the addition of environmental tracer data, relative to the use of hydraulic measurements alone. Anthropogenic tracers and their decay products, such as CFC11, 3H, and 3He, provide significant constraint oninput permeability values in the model. Tracer data for 39Ar provide even more complete information on the heterogeneity of permeability and variability in the flow system than the anthropogenic tracers, leading to greater parameter uncertainty reduction.« less

  10. Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison

    DOE PAGES

    Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Levine, Naomi M.; Christoffersen, Bradley O.; ...

    2016-08-29

    To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of othermore » fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, ‘soil water stress’ and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (Re) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and Re consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. In conclusion, correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.« less

  11. Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Levine, Naomi M.; Christoffersen, Bradley O.

    To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of othermore » fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, ‘soil water stress’ and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (Re) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and Re consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. In conclusion, correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.« less

  12. Modeling multi-scale aerosol dynamics and micro-environmental air quality near a large highway intersection using the CTAG model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yan Jason; Nguyen, Monica T; Steffens, Jonathan T; Tong, Zheming; Wang, Yungang; Hopke, Philip K; Zhang, K Max

    2013-01-15

    A new methodology, referred to as the multi-scale structure, integrates "tailpipe-to-road" (i.e., on-road domain) and "road-to-ambient" (i.e., near-road domain) simulations to elucidate the environmental impacts of particulate emissions from traffic sources. The multi-scale structure is implemented in the CTAG model to 1) generate process-based on-road emission rates of ultrafine particles (UFPs) by explicitly simulating the effects of exhaust properties, traffic conditions, and meteorological conditions and 2) to characterize the impacts of traffic-related emissions on micro-environmental air quality near a highway intersection in Rochester, NY. The performance of CTAG, evaluated against with the field measurements, shows adequate agreement in capturing the dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) and the number concentrations of UFPs in the near road micro-environment. As a proof-of-concept case study, we also apply CTAG to separate the relative impacts of the shutdown of a large coal-fired power plant (CFPP) and the adoption of the ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) on UFP concentrations in the intersection micro-environment. Although CTAG is still computationally expensive compared to the widely-used parameterized dispersion models, it has the potential to advance our capability to predict the impacts of UFP emissions and spatial/temporal variations of air pollutants in complex environments. Furthermore, for the on-road simulations, CTAG can serve as a process-based emission model; Combining the on-road and near-road simulations, CTAG becomes a "plume-in-grid" model for mobile emissions. The processed emission profiles can potentially improve regional air quality and climate predictions accordingly. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Spectral analysis of a two-species competition model: Determining the effects of extreme conditions on the color of noise generated from simulated time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golinski, M. R.

    2006-07-01

    Ecologists have observed that environmental noise affects population variance in the logistic equation for one-species growth. Interactions between deterministic and stochastic dynamics in a one-dimensional system result in increased variance in species population density over time. Since natural populations do not live in isolation, the present paper simulates a discrete-time two-species competition model with environmental noise to determine the type of colored population noise generated by extreme conditions in the long-term population dynamics of competing populations. Discrete Fourier analysis is applied to the simulation results and the calculated Hurst exponent ( H) is used to determine how the color of population noise for the two species corresponds to extreme conditions in population dynamics. To interpret the biological meaning of the color of noise generated by the two-species model, the paper determines the color of noise generated by three reference models: (1) A two-dimensional discrete-time white noise model (0⩽ H<1/2); (2) A two-dimensional fractional Brownian motion model (H=1/2); and (3) A two-dimensional discrete-time model with noise for unbounded growth of two uncoupled species (1/2< H⩽1).

  14. An environmental testing facility for Space Station Freedom power management and distribution hardware

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackola, Arthur S.; Hartjen, Gary L.

    1992-01-01

    The plans for a new test facility, including new environmental test systems, which are presently under construction, and the major environmental Test Support Equipment (TSE) used therein are addressed. This all-new Rocketdyne facility will perform space simulation environmental tests on Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) hardware to Space Station Freedom (SSF) at the Engineering Model, Qualification Model, and Flight Model levels of fidelity. Testing will include Random Vibration in three axes - Thermal Vacuum, Thermal Cycling and Thermal Burn-in - as well as numerous electrical functional tests. The facility is designed to support a relatively high throughput of hardware under test, while maintaining the high standards required for a man-rated space program.

  15. A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alyamani, Talal M.

    Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the conflicting objectives of different stakeholders.

  16. A system for environmental model coupling and code reuse: The Great Rivers Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eckman, B.; Rice, J.; Treinish, L.; Barford, C.

    2008-12-01

    As part of the Great Rivers Project, IBM is collaborating with The Nature Conservancy and the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) at the University of Wisconsin, Madison to build a Modeling Framework and Decision Support System (DSS) designed to help policy makers and a variety of stakeholders (farmers, fish & wildlife managers, hydropower operators, et al.) to assess, come to consensus, and act on land use decisions representing effective compromises between human use and ecosystem preservation/restoration. Initially focused on Brazil's Paraguay-Parana, China's Yangtze, and the Mississippi Basin in the US, the DSS integrates data and models from a wide variety of environmental sectors, including water balance, water quality, carbon balance, crop production, hydropower, and biodiversity. In this presentation we focus on the modeling framework aspect of this project. In our approach to these and other environmental modeling projects, we see a flexible, extensible modeling framework infrastructure for defining and running multi-step analytic simulations as critical. In this framework, we divide monolithic models into atomic components with clearly defined semantics encoded via rich metadata representation. Once models and their semantics and composition rules have been registered with the system by their authors or other experts, non-expert users may construct simulations as workflows of these atomic model components. A model composition engine enforces rules/constraints for composing model components into simulations, to avoid the creation of Frankenmodels, models that execute but produce scientifically invalid results. A common software environment and common representations of data and models are required, as well as an adapter strategy for code written in e.g., Fortran or python, that still enables efficient simulation runs, including parallelization. Since each new simulation, as a new composition of model components, requires calibration of parameters (fudge factors) to produce scientifically valid results, we are also developing an autocalibration engine. Finally, visualization is a key element of this modeling framework strategy, both to convey complex scientific data effectively, and also to enable non-expert users to make full use of the relevant features of the framework. We are developing a visualization environment with a strong data model, to enable visualizations, model results, and data all to be handled similarly.

  17. Simulating fish assemblages in riverine networks - September 2013

    EPA Science Inventory

    We describe a modeling approach for simulating assemblages of fish in riverine landscapes. The approach allows a user to determine the grain and extent of river networks within which fish populations reproduce, move, and survive in response to both environmental drivers and assem...

  18. Models of regeneration, tree growth, and current and potential ranges of tree and mammal species in the Eastern U.S.

    Treesearch

    Elaine K. Sutherland; Louis R. Iverson; Daniel A. Yaussy; Charles T. Scott; Betsy J. Hale; Anantha Prasad; Mark Schwartz; Hope R. Barrett

    1997-01-01

    An environmentally responsive, mechanistic regeneration simulator should simulate important ecological relationships and disturbance effects. Development of such a regeneration simulator is complex because of the many attributes that characterize reproductive strategies and the importance of forest history and disturbance in determining the composition of the next...

  19. Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC)is a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model that can be used to simulate aquatic systems in one, two, and three dimensions. It has evolved over the past two decades to become one of the most widely used and technically defensible hydrodyn...

  20. The System Dynamics Model for Development of Organic Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozman, Črtomir; Škraba, Andrej; Kljajić, Miroljub; Pažek, Karmen; Bavec, Martina; Bavec, Franci

    2008-10-01

    Organic agriculture is the highest environmentally valuable agricultural system, and has strategic importance at national level that goes beyond the interests of agricultural sector. In this paper we address development of organic farming simulation model based on a system dynamics methodology (SD). The system incorporates relevant variables, which affect the development of the organic farming. The group decision support system (GDSS) was used in order to identify most relevant variables for construction of causal loop diagram and further model development. The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the level of organically utilized area, levels of production and crop selection in a long term dynamic context and will be used for simulation of different policy scenarios for organic farming and their impact on economic and environmental parameters of organic production at an aggregate level.

  1. IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model

    PubMed Central

    Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A.

    2015-01-01

    Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a ‘wild’ genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors. PMID:26383256

  2. Forecasts of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) off Chile under the A2 IPCC climate change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Claudio; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Barbieri, María Angela; Bernal, Claudio; Aranis, Antonio

    2015-05-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated the effects of climate change on both oceanographic conditions and the relative abundance and distribution of fisheries resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) fisheries using predictions of changes from global models (according to the NCAR model and IPCC emissions scenario A2), bioclimate envelope models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. The results show an SST trend of 0.0196 °C per year in the study area, equivalent to 0.98 °C for the simulation horizon and for a high CO2 emission scenario (A2). The bioclimate envelope models were developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly environmental and fisheries data. These data included the local relative abundance index of fish catch per unit effort (CPUE), corresponding to the total catch (kg) by 1000 hooks in a 1° latitude × 1° longitude fishing grid for swordfish and to the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (100 m3) in a 10‧ latitude × 10‧ longitude grid for common sardine. The environmental data included temporal (month), spatial (latitude) and thermal conditions (SST). In the first step of the bioclimate modelling performed in this study, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE. These relationships were then parameterised using general linear models (GLMs) to provide a robust forecasting tool. With this modelling approach, environmental variables explained 58.7% of the variation in the CPUE of swordfish and 60.6% of the variation in the CPUE of common sardine in the final GLMs. Using IDRISI GIS, these GLMs simulated monthly changes in the relative abundance and distribution of the studied species forced by changes in the regionalised SST projected by the NCAR model under the A2 emission scenario. The simulations predicted a slight decline of 6% (17 kg/1000 hooks) and 7% (3.8 ton/100 m3) for swordfish and common sardine, respectively, in the spatial mean of the potential relative abundance (CPUE) by 2065.

  3. Evaluation of CAESAR-Lisflood as a tool for modelling river channel change and floodplain sediment residence times.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feeney, Christopher; Smith, Hugh; Chiverrell, Richard; Hooke, Janet; Cooper, James

    2017-04-01

    Sediment residence time represents the duration of particle storage, from initial deposition to remobilisation, within reservoirs such as floodplains. Residence time influences rates of downstream redistribution of sediment and associated contaminants and is a useful indicator of landform stability and hence, preservation potential of alluvial archives of environmental change. River channel change controls residence times, reworking sediments via lateral migration, avulsion and incision through floodplain deposits. As reworking progresses, the floodplain age distribution is 'updated', reflecting the time since 'older' sediments were removed and replaced with 'younger' ones. The relationship between ages and the spatial extents they occupy can be used to estimate the average floodplain sediment residence times. While dating techniques, historic maps and remote sensing can reconstruct age distributions from historic reworking, modelling provides advantages, including: i) capturing detailed river channel changes and resulting floodplain ages over longer timescales and higher resolutions than from historic mapping, and ii) control over inputs to simulate hypothetical scenarios to investigate the effects of different environmental drivers on residence times. CAESAR-Lisflood is a landform evolution model capable of simulating variable channel width, divergent flow, and both braided and meandering planforms. However, the model's ability to accurately simulate channel changes requires evaluation if it is to be useful for quantitative evaluation of floodplain sediment residence times. This study aims to simulate recent historic river channel changes along ten 1 km reaches in northern England. Simulation periods were defined by available overlapping historic map and mean daily flow datasets, ranging 27-39 years. LiDAR-derived 2 m DEMs were modified to smooth out present-day channels and burn in historic channel locations. To reduce run times, DEMs were resampled to coarser resolutions based on the size of the channel and historic rate of lateral channel migration. Separate pre-defined coarse and finer channel bed and floodplain grain size distributions were used, respectively, in combination with constructed reach DEMs for model simulations. Calibration was performed by modifying selected parameters to obtain best fits between observed and modelled channel planforms. Initial simulations suggest the model can broadly reproduce observed planform change and is comparable in terms of channel sinuosities and the mean radius of curvature. As such, CAESAR-Lisflood may provide a useful tool for evaluating floodplain sediment residence times under environmental change scenarios.

  4. Features of the Drag-Free-Simulator demonstrated for the Microscope-mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    List, Meike; Bremer, Stefanie; Dittus, Hansjoerg; Selig, Hanns

    The ZARM Drag-Free-Simulator is being developed as a tool for comprehensive mission modeling. Environmental disturbances like solar radiation pressure, atmospheric drag, interactions between the satellite and the Earth's magnetic field can be taken into account via several models. Besides the gravitational field of the Earth, the influence of Sun, Moon and the planets including Pluto can be considered for aimed simulations, too. Methods of modeling and implementation will be presented. At the moment, effort is made to adapt this simulation tool for the french mission MICRO- SCOPE which is designed for testing the equivalence principle up to an accuracy of η=10-15 . Additionally, detailed modeling of on-board capacitive sensors is necessary for a better understanding of the real system. The actual status of mission modeling will be reported.

  5. Does spatial variation in environmental conditions affect recruitment? A study using a 3-D model of Peruvian anchovy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Chai, Fei; Chavez, Francisco P.; Ayón, Patricia

    2015-11-01

    We used a 3-dimensional individual-based model (3-D IBM) of Peruvian anchovy to examine how spatial variation in environmental conditions affects larval and juvenile growth and survival, and recruitment. Temperature, velocity, and phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations generated from a coupled hydrodynamic Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model, mapped to a three dimensional rectangular grid, were used to simulate anchovy populations. The IBM simulated individuals as they progressed from eggs to recruitment at 10 cm. Eggs and yolk-sac larvae were followed hourly through the processes of development, mortality, and movement (advection), and larvae and juveniles were followed daily through the processes of growth, mortality, and movement (advection plus behavior). A bioenergetics model was used to grow larvae and juveniles. The NPZD model provided prey fields which influence both food consumption rate as well as behavior mediated movement with individuals going to grids cells having optimal growth conditions. We compared predicted recruitment for monthly cohorts for 1990 through 2004 between the full 3-D IBM and a point (0-D) model that used spatially-averaged environmental conditions. The 3-D and 0-D versions generated similar interannual patterns in monthly recruitment for 1991-2004, with the 3-D results yielding consistently higher survivorship. Both versions successfully captured the very poor recruitment during the 1997-1998 El Niño event. Higher recruitment in the 3-D simulations was due to higher survival during the larval stage resulting from individuals searching for more favorable temperatures that lead to faster growth rates. The strong effect of temperature was because both model versions provided saturating food conditions for larval and juvenile anchovies. We conclude with a discussion of how explicit treatment of spatial variation affected simulated recruitment, other examples of fisheries modeling analyses that have used a similar approach to assess the influence of spatial variation, and areas for further model development.

  6. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

    Treesearch

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  7. Simulating soybean productivity under rainfed conditions for major soil types using APEX model in East Central Mississippi

    Treesearch

    Bangbang Zhang; Gary Feng; John J. Read; Xiangbin Kong; Ying Ouyang; Ardeshir Adeli; Johnie N. Jenkins

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of soybean yield constraints under rainfed conditions on major soil types in East CentralMississippi would assist growers in the region to effectively utilize the benefits of water/irrigation man-agement. The objectives of this study were to use the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX)agro-ecosystem model to simulate rainfed soybean grain yield (...

  8. Method and Process for the Creation of Modeling and Simulation Tools for Human Crowd Behavior

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-23

    Support• Program Executive Office Ground Combat Systems • Program Executive Office Soldier TACOM LCMC MG Michael J. Terry Assigned/Direct Support...environmental technologies and explosive ordnance disposal Fire Control: Battlefield digitization; embedded system software; aero ballistics and...MRAD – Handheld stand-off NLW operated by Control Force • Simulated Projectile Weapon • Simulated Handheld Directed Energy NLW ( VDE ) – Simulated

  9. Simulation of Halocarbon Production and Emissions and Effects on Ozone Depletion

    PubMed

    Holmes; Ellis

    1997-09-01

    / This paper describes an integrated model that simulates future halocarbon production/emissions and potential ozone depletion. Applications and historical production levels for various halocarbons are discussed first. A framework is then presented for modeling future halocarbon impacts incorporating differences in underlying demands, applications, regulatory mandates, and environmental characteristics. The model is used to simulate the potential impacts of several prominent issues relating to halocarbon production, regulation, and environmental interactions, notably: changes in agricultural methyl bromide use, increases in effectiveness of bromine for ozone depletion, modifications to the elimination schedule for HCFCs, short-term expansion of CFC demand in low use compliance countries, and delays in Russian Federation compliance. Individually, each issue does not unequivocally represent a significant likely increase in long-term atmospheric halogen loading and stratospheric ozone depletion. In combination, however, these impacts could increase peak halogen concentrations and long-term integral halogen loading, resulting in higher levels of stratospheric ozone depletion and longer exposure to increased levels of UV radiation.KEY WORDS: Halocarbons; Ozone depletion; Montreal Protocol; Integrated assessment

  10. Section 4. The GIS Weasel User's Manual

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Viger, Roland J.; Leavesley, George H.

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTION The GIS Weasel was designed to aid in the preparation of spatial information for input to lumped and distributed parameter hydrologic or other environmental models. The GIS Weasel provides geographic information system (GIS) tools to help create maps of geographic features relevant to a user's model and to generate parameters from those maps. The operation of the GIS Weasel does not require the user to be a GIS expert, only that the user have an understanding of the spatial information requirements of the environmental simulation model being used. The GIS Weasel software system uses a GIS-based graphical user interface (GUI), the C programming language, and external scripting languages. The software will run on any computing platform where ArcInfo Workstation (version 8.0.2 or later) and the GRID extension are accessible. The user controls the processing of the GIS Weasel by interacting with menus, maps, and tables. The purpose of this document is to describe the operation of the software. This document is not intended to describe the usage of this software in support of any particular environmental simulation model. Such guides are published separately.

  11. Linear mixed model for heritability estimation that explicitly addresses environmental variation.

    PubMed

    Heckerman, David; Gurdasani, Deepti; Kadie, Carl; Pomilla, Cristina; Carstensen, Tommy; Martin, Hilary; Ekoru, Kenneth; Nsubuga, Rebecca N; Ssenyomo, Gerald; Kamali, Anatoli; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Widmer, Christian; Sandhu, Manjinder S

    2016-07-05

    The linear mixed model (LMM) is now routinely used to estimate heritability. Unfortunately, as we demonstrate, LMM estimates of heritability can be inflated when using a standard model. To help reduce this inflation, we used a more general LMM with two random effects-one based on genomic variants and one based on easily measured spatial location as a proxy for environmental effects. We investigated this approach with simulated data and with data from a Uganda cohort of 4,778 individuals for 34 phenotypes including anthropometric indices, blood factors, glycemic control, blood pressure, lipid tests, and liver function tests. For the genomic random effect, we used identity-by-descent estimates from accurately phased genome-wide data. For the environmental random effect, we constructed a covariance matrix based on a Gaussian radial basis function. Across the simulated and Ugandan data, narrow-sense heritability estimates were lower using the more general model. Thus, our approach addresses, in part, the issue of "missing heritability" in the sense that much of the heritability previously thought to be missing was fictional. Software is available at https://github.com/MicrosoftGenomics/FaST-LMM.

  12. DairyWise, a whole-farm dairy model.

    PubMed

    Schils, R L M; de Haan, M H A; Hemmer, J G A; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A; de Boer, J A; Evers, A G; Holshof, G; van Middelkoop, J C; Zom, R L G

    2007-11-01

    A whole-farm dairy model was developed and evaluated. The DairyWise model is an empirical model that simulated technical, environmental, and financial processes on a dairy farm. The central component is the FeedSupply model that balanced the herd requirements, as generated by the DairyHerd model, and the supply of homegrown feeds, as generated by the crop models for grassland and corn silage. The output of the FeedSupply model was used as input for several technical, environmental, and economic submodels. The submodels simulated a range of farm aspects such as nitrogen and phosphorus cycling, nitrate leaching, ammonia emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, and a financial farm budget. The final output was a farm plan describing all material and nutrient flows and the consequences on the environment and economy. Evaluation of DairyWise was performed with 2 data sets consisting of 29 dairy farms. The evaluation showed that DairyWise was able to simulate gross margin, concentrate intake, nitrogen surplus, nitrate concentration in ground water, and crop yields. The variance accounted for ranged from 37 to 84%, and the mean differences between modeled and observed values varied between -5 to +3% per set of farms. We conclude that DairyWise is a powerful tool for integrated scenario development and evaluation for scientists, policy makers, extension workers, teachers and farmers.

  13. Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

    2003-01-01

    Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

  14. Linking MODFLOW with an agent-based land-use model to support decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reeves, H.W.; Zellner, M.L.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey numerical groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, was integrated with an agent-based land-use model to yield a simulator for environmental planning studies. Ultimately, this integrated simulator will be used as a means to organize information, illustrate potential system responses, and facilitate communication within a participatory modeling framework. Initial results show the potential system response to different zoning policy scenarios in terms of the spatial patterns of development, which is referred to as urban form, and consequent impacts on groundwater levels. These results illustrate how the integrated simulator is capable of representing the complexity of the system. From a groundwater modeling perspective, the most important aspect of the integration is that the simulator generates stresses on the groundwater system within the simulation in contrast to the traditional approach that requires the user to specify the stresses through time. Copyright ?? 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

  15. Managing Uncertainty in Runoff Estimation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Stormwater Calculator.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Stormwater Calculator (NSWC) simplifies the task of estimating runoff through a straightforward simulation process based on the EPA Stormwater Management Model. The NSWC accesses localized climate and soil hydrology data, and opti...

  16. A dynamic human water and electrolyte balance model for verification and optimization of life support systems in space flight applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hager, P.; Czupalla, M.; Walter, U.

    2010-11-01

    In this paper we report on the development of a dynamic MATLAB SIMULINK® model for the water and electrolyte balance inside the human body. This model is part of an environmentally sensitive dynamic human model for the optimization and verification of environmental control and life support systems (ECLSS) in space flight applications. An ECLSS provides all vital supplies for supporting human life on board a spacecraft. As human space flight today focuses on medium- to long-term missions, the strategy in ECLSS is shifting to closed loop systems. For these systems the dynamic stability and function over long duration are essential. However, the only evaluation and rating methods for ECLSS up to now are either expensive trial and error breadboarding strategies or static and semi-dynamic simulations. In order to overcome this mismatch the Exploration Group at Technische Universität München (TUM) is developing a dynamic environmental simulation, the "Virtual Habitat" (V-HAB). The central element of this simulation is the dynamic and environmentally sensitive human model. The water subsystem simulation of the human model discussed in this paper is of vital importance for the efficiency of possible ECLSS optimizations, as an over- or under-scaled water subsystem would have an adverse effect on the overall mass budget. On the other hand water has a pivotal role in the human organism. Water accounts for about 60% of the total body mass and is educt and product of numerous metabolic reactions. It is a transport medium for solutes and, due to its high evaporation enthalpy, provides the most potent medium for heat load dissipation. In a system engineering approach the human water balance was worked out by simulating the human body's subsystems and their interactions. The body fluids were assumed to reside in three compartments: blood plasma, interstitial fluid and intracellular fluid. In addition, the active and passive transport of water and solutes between those compartments was modeled dynamically. A kidney model regulates the electrolyte concentration in body fluids (osmolality) in narrow confines and a thirst mechanism models the urge to ingest water. A controlled exchange of water and electrolytes with other human subsystems, as well as with the environment, is implemented. Finally, the changes in body composition due to muscle growth are accounted for. The outcome of this is a dynamic water and electrolyte balance, which is capable of representing body reactions like thirst and headaches, as well as heat stroke and collapse, as a response to its work load and environment.

  17. Online Higher Education Instruction to Foster Critical Thinking When Assessing Environmental Issues - the Brownfield Action Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bower, Peter; Liddicoat, Joseph; Dittrick, Diane; Maenza-Gmelch, Terryanne; Kelsey, Ryan

    2013-04-01

    According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there are presently over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly into the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part online for more than a decade in environmental science courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies, conduct environmental site assessment investigations, and work collaboratively to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue or crisis.

  18. Transport of Cryptosporidium parvum Oocysts in Charge Heterogeneous Porous Media: Microfluidics Experiment and Numerical Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Meng, X.; Guo, Z.; Zhang, C.; Nguyen, T. H.; Hu, D.; Ji, J.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Colloidal attachment on charge heterogeneous grains has significant environmental implications for transport of hazardous colloids, such as pathogens, in the aquifer, where iron, manganese, and aluminium oxide minerals are the major source of surface charge heterogeneity of the aquifer grains. A patchwise surface charge model is often used to describe the surface charge heterogeneity of the grains. In the patchwise model, the colloidal attachment efficiency is linearly correlated with the fraction of the favorable patches (θ=λ(θf - θu)+θu). However, our previous microfluidic study showed that the attachment efficiency of oocysts of Cryptosporidium parvum, a waterborne protozoan parasite, was not linear correlated with the fraction of the favorable patches (λ). In this study, we developed a pore scale model to simulate colloidal transport and attachment on charge heterogeneous grains. The flow field was simulated using the LBM method and colloidal transport and attachment were simulated using the Lagrange particle tracking method. The pore scale model was calibrated with experimental results of colloidal and oocyst transport in microfluidic devices and was then used to simulate oocyst transport in charge heterogeneous porous media under a variety of environmental relative conditions, i.e. the fraction of favorable patchwise, ionic strength, and pH. The results of the pore scale simulations were used to evaluate the effect of surface charge heterogeneity on upscaling of oocyst transport from pore to continuum scale and to develop an applicable correlation between colloidal attachment efficiency and the fraction of the favorable patches.

  19. The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Huw W.; Castillo Sanchez, Juan Manuel; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Bornemann, Jorge; Arnold, Alex; Fallmann, Joachim; Harris, Chris; Pearson, David; Ramsdale, Steven; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto; Bricheno, Lucy; Blyth, Eleanor; Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen; Marthews, Toby R.; O'Neill, Clare; Rumbold, Heather; O'Dea, Enda; Brereton, Ashley; Guihou, Karen; Hines, Adrian; Butenschon, Momme; Dadson, Simon J.; Palmer, Tamzin; Holt, Jason; Reynard, Nick; Best, Martin; Edwards, John; Siddorn, John

    2018-01-01

    It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.

  20. Influence of urban shapes on environmental noise: a case study in Aracaju-Brazil.

    PubMed

    Guedes, Italo C Montalvão; Bertoli, Stelamaris R; Zannin, Paulo H T

    2011-12-15

    This paper discusses the results of a study about the influence of urban shapes on environmental noise in the city of Aracaju (Brazil). The study, which involved in situ measurements and acoustic simulations using SoundPLAN software, began with an analysis of the current acoustic scenario, followed by the creation and simulation of hypothetical scenarios in as yet unoccupied sectors of the region under study. The acoustic modeling and simulations were based on measurements of equivalent-continuous sound pressure level, LAeq, and vehicle flow data, and on the region's geometrics. The results reveal that the physical characteristics of the urban shape, such as construction density, the existence of open spaces, and the shape and physical position of buildings exert a significant influence on environmental noise. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. High resolution global climate modelling; the UPSCALE project, a large simulation campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizielinski, M. S.; Roberts, M. J.; Vidale, P. L.; Schiemann, R.; Demory, M.-E.; Strachan, J.; Edwards, T.; Stephens, A.; Lawrence, B. N.; Pritchard, M.; Chiu, P.; Iwi, A.; Churchill, J.; del Cano Novales, C.; Kettleborough, J.; Roseblade, W.; Selwood, P.; Foster, M.; Glover, M.; Malcolm, A.

    2014-01-01

    The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project constructed and ran an ensemble of HadGEM3 (Hadley centre Global Environment Model 3) atmosphere-only global climate simulations over the period 1985-2011, at resolutions of N512 (25 km), N216 (60 km) and N96 (130 km) as used in current global weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate modelling respectively. Alongside these present climate simulations a parallel ensemble looking at extremes of future climate was run, using a time-slice methodology to consider conditions at the end of this century. These simulations were primarily performed using a 144 million core hour, single year grant of computing time from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) in 2012, with additional resources supplied by the Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) and the Met Office. Almost 400 terabytes of simulation data were generated on the HERMIT supercomputer at the high performance computing center Stuttgart (HLRS), and transferred to the JASMIN super-data cluster provided by the Science and Technology Facilities Council Centre for Data Archival (STFC CEDA) for analysis and storage. In this paper we describe the implementation of the project, present the technical challenges in terms of optimisation, data output, transfer and storage that such a project involves and include details of the model configuration and the composition of the UPSCALE dataset. This dataset is available for scientific analysis to allow assessment of the value of model resolution in both present and potential future climate conditions.

  2. Bacteria transport simulation using apex model in the toenepi watershed, New Zealand

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is a distributed, continuous, daily-timestep small watershed-scale hydrologic and water quality model. In this study, the newly developed fecal-derived bacteria fate and transport subroutine was applied and validated using APEX model. The ...

  3. Modeling emissions of volatile organic compounds from silage storages and feed lanes

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    An initial volatile organic compound (VOC) emission model for silage sources, developed using experimental data from previous studies, was incorporated into the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM), a whole-farm simulation model used to assess the performance, environmental impacts, and economics of ...

  4. Influence of World and Gravity Model Selection on Surface Interacting Vehicle Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Madden, Michael M.

    2007-01-01

    A vehicle simulation is surface-interacting if the state of the vehicle (position, velocity, and acceleration) relative to the surface is important. Surface-interacting simulations perform ascent, entry, descent, landing, surface travel, or atmospheric flight. Modeling of gravity is an influential environmental factor for surface-interacting simulations. Gravity is the free-fall acceleration observed from a world-fixed frame that rotates with the world. Thus, gravity is the sum of gravitation and the centrifugal acceleration due to the world s rotation. In surface-interacting simulations, the fidelity of gravity at heights above the surface is more significant than gravity fidelity at locations in inertial space. A surface-interacting simulation cannot treat the gravity model separately from the world model, which simulates the motion and shape of the world. The world model's simulation of the world's rotation, or lack thereof, produces the centrifugal acceleration component of gravity. The world model s reproduction of the world's shape will produce different positions relative to the world center for a given height above the surface. These differences produce variations in the gravitation component of gravity. This paper examines the actual performance of world and gravity/gravitation pairs in a simulation using the Earth.

  5. EFFECTS OF CORRELATED PROBABILISTIC EXPOSURE MODEL INPUTS ON SIMULATED RESULTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In recent years, more probabilistic models have been developed to quantify aggregate human exposures to environmental pollutants. The impact of correlation among inputs in these models is an important issue, which has not been resolved. Obtaining correlated data and implementi...

  6. Towards Core Modelling Practices in Integrated Water Resource Management: An Interdisciplinary View of the Modelling Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jakeman, A. J.; Elsawah, S.; Pierce, S. A.; Ames, D. P.

    2016-12-01

    The National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) Core Modelling Practices Pursuit is developing resources to describe core practices for developing and using models to support integrated water resource management. These practices implement specific steps in the modelling process with an interdisciplinary perspective; however, the particular practice that is most appropriate depends on contextual aspects specific to the project. The first task of the pursuit is to identify the various steps for which implementation practices are to be described. This paper reports on those results. The paper draws on knowledge from the modelling process literature for environmental modelling (Jakeman et al., 2006), engaging stakeholders (Voinov and Bousquet, 2010) and general modelling (Banks, 1999), as well as the experience of the consortium members. We organise the steps around the four modelling phases. The planning phase identifies what is to be achieved, how and with what resources. The model is built and tested during the construction phase, and then used in the application phase. Finally, models that become part of the ongoing policy process require a maintenance phase. For each step, the paper focusses on what is to be considered or achieved, rather than how it is performed. This reflects the separation of the steps from the practices that implement them in different contexts. We support description of steps with a wide range of examples. Examples are designed to be generic and do not reflect any one project or context, but instead are drawn from common situations or from extremely different ones so as to highlight some of the issues that may arise at each step. References Banks, J. (1999). Introduction to simulation. In Proceedings of the 1999 Winter Simulation Conference. Jakeman, A. J., R. A. Letcher, and J. P. Norton (2006). Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models. Environmental Modelling and Software 21, 602-614. Voinov, A. and F. Bousquet (2010). Modelling with stakeholders. Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (11), 1268-1281.

  7. Numerical Simulation of Salinity and Dissolved Oxygen at Perdido Bay and Adjacent Coastal Ocean

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC), a numerical estuarine and coastal ocean circulation hydrodynamic model, was used to simulate the distribution of the salinity, temperature, nutrients and dissolved oxygen (DO) in Perdido Bay and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. External forcing fa...

  8. Monte Carlo simulation of quantum Zeno effect in the brain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiev, Danko

    2015-12-01

    Environmental decoherence appears to be the biggest obstacle for successful construction of quantum mind theories. Nevertheless, the quantum physicist Henry Stapp promoted the view that the mind could utilize quantum Zeno effect to influence brain dynamics and that the efficacy of such mental efforts would not be undermined by environmental decoherence of the brain. To address the physical plausibility of Stapp's claim, we modeled the brain using quantum tunneling of an electron in a multiple-well structure such as the voltage sensor in neuronal ion channels and performed Monte Carlo simulations of quantum Zeno effect exerted by the mind upon the brain in the presence or absence of environmental decoherence. The simulations unambiguously showed that the quantum Zeno effect breaks down for timescales greater than the brain decoherence time. To generalize the Monte Carlo simulation results for any n-level quantum system, we further analyzed the change of brain entropy due to the mind probing actions and proved a theorem according to which local projections cannot decrease the von Neumann entropy of the unconditional brain density matrix. The latter theorem establishes that Stapp's model is physically implausible but leaves a door open for future development of quantum mind theories provided the brain has a decoherence-free subspace.

  9. Spatial heterogeneity in the timing of birch budburst in response to future climate warming in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caffarra, Amelia; Zottele, Fabio; Gleeson, Emily; Donnelly, Alison

    2014-05-01

    In order to predict the impact of future climate warming on trees it is important to quantify the effect climate has on their development. Our understanding of the phenological response to environmental drivers has given rise to various mathematical models of the annual growth cycle of plants. These models simulate the timing of phenophases by quantifying the relationship between development and its triggers, typically temperature. In addition, other environmental variables have an important role in determining the timing of budburst. For example, photoperiod has been shown to have a strong influence on phenological events of a number of tree species, including Betula pubescens (birch). A recently developed model for birch (DORMPHOT), which integrates the effects of temperature and photoperiod on budburst, was applied to future temperature projections from a 19-member ensemble of regional climate simulations (on a 25 km grid) generated as part of the ENSEMBLES project, to simulate the timing of birch budburst in Ireland each year up to the end of the present century. Gridded temperature time series data from the climate simulations were used as input to the DORMPHOT model to simulate future budburst timing. The results showed an advancing trend in the timing of birch budburst over most regions in Ireland up to 2100. Interestingly, this trend appeared greater in the northeast of the country than in the southwest, where budburst is currently relatively early. These results could have implications for future forest planning, species distribution modeling, and the birch allergy season.

  10. Performance of Mixed Layer Models in Simulating SST in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-02-23

    also used Environmental Model ( GDEM ) climatology [NA VOCEANO, for global validation. 2003]. The density difference values were chosen, so that the [6...were initialized from the monthly different at two different locations. Values of SS range from mean temperature and salinity for August from the GDEM ...environmental model ( GDEM -V) Version 3.0, OAML-DBD-72, 34 pp, Chassignet, E. P., H. E. Hurlburt, 0. M. Smedstad, G. R. Halliwell, A. J. Stennis Space Center

  11. Assessing the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution of urban stormwater runoff: a dynamic modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Yi; Lin, Zhongrong; Li, Hao; Ge, Yan; Zhang, Wei; Ye, Youbin; Wang, Xuejun

    2014-05-15

    Urban stormwater runoff delivers a significant amount of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), mostly of atmospheric origin, to receiving water bodies. The PAH pollution of urban stormwater runoff poses serious risk to aquatic life and human health, but has been overlooked by environmental modeling and management. This study proposed a dynamic modeling approach for assessing the PAH pollution and its associated environmental risk. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of pollutant buildup and washoff. To reflect the complex interaction among different environmental media (i.e. atmosphere, dust and stormwater), the dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. Long-term simulations of the model can be efficiently performed, and probabilistic features of the pollution level and its risk can be easily determined. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case study in Beijing, China. The results showed that Beijing's PAH pollution of road runoff is relatively severe, and its associated risk exhibits notable seasonal variation. The current sweeping practice is effective in mitigating the pollution, but the effectiveness is both weather-dependent and compound-dependent. The proposed modeling approach can help identify critical timing and major pollutants for monitoring, assessing and controlling efforts to be focused on. The approach is extendable to other urban areas, as well as to other contaminants with similar fate and transport as PAHs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Faecal coliform simulation on sewage discharge for an environmentally sustainable township in Medini Iskandar Johor Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye; Lee, Elizabeth; Woo, Wing Thye; Tan, Wai Kiat

    2017-11-01

    The Medini Iskandar Development is a 2300-acre multi-purpose urban development comprising residential, commercial, educational, business and recreational areas. The developer applied to the Department of Environment (DOE) Johor in July 2008 for approval of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) report for the overall Medini development. A conditional approval of the EIA report was granted by the DOE subject to some conditions, one of which stipulated that sewage effluent from the centralized sewage treatment plant (STP) is not permitted to be discharged into Sungai Pendas. A suitable location for the discharge of sewage into the Selat Johor is to be identified, based on a hydraulic and water quality modelling investigation. This modelling investigation aims to assess the impact of the discharge of treated sewage effluent on the marine water quality and on aquatic life in the Selat Johor. The supplementary EIA report was submitted to the DOE. Approval was granted in December 2011 for the construction of the marine sewage outfall and its operations. This paper presents the sampling and simulation results for key hydraulic and environmental parameters suitable for sustaining acceptable faecal coliform criteria in Selat Johor. Simulation models used include WASP7 developed by USEPA and AQUASEA developed by Vatnaskil Consulting Engineers.

  13. Decision Support for Environmental Management of Industrial Non-Hazardous Secondary Materials: New Analytical Methods Combined with Simulation and Optimization Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Non-hazardous solid materials from industrial processes, once regarded as waste and disposed in landfills, offer numerous environmental and economic advantages when put to beneficial uses (BUs). Proper management of these industrial non-hazardous secondary materials (INSM) requir...

  14. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation of toxic substances. The capability of the Framework to address cumulative impacts will be demonstrated for freshwater ecosystem services and mountaintop mining.

  15. An object-oriented software for fate and exposure assessments.

    PubMed

    Scheil, S; Baumgarten, G; Reiter, B; Schwartz, S; Wagner, J O; Trapp, S; Matthies, M

    1995-07-01

    The model system CemoS(1) (Chemical Exposure Model System) was developed for the exposure prediction of hazardous chemicals released to the environment. Eight different models were implemented involving chemicals fate simulation in air, water, soil and plants after continuous or single emissions from point and diffuse sources. Scenario studies are supported by a substance and an environmental data base. All input data are checked on their plausibility. Substance and environmental process estimation functions facilitate generic model calculations. CemoS is implemented in a modular structure using object-oriented programming.

  16. Developing Best Practices for Detecting Change at Marine Renewable Energy Sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linder, H. L.; Horne, J. K.

    2016-02-01

    In compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), an evaluation of environmental effects is mandatory for obtaining permits for any Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) project in the US. Evaluation includes an assessment of baseline conditions and on-going monitoring during operation to determine if biological conditions change relative to the baseline. Currently, there are no best practices for the analysis of MRE monitoring data. We have developed an approach to evaluate and recommend analytic models used to characterize and detect change in biological monitoring data. The approach includes six steps: review current MRE monitoring practices, identify candidate models to analyze data, fit models to a baseline dataset, develop simulated scenarios of change, evaluate model fit to simulated data, and produce recommendations on the choice of analytic model for monitoring data. An empirical data set from a proposed tidal turbine site at Admiralty Inlet, Puget Sound, Washington was used to conduct the model evaluation. Candidate models that were evaluated included: linear regression, time series, and nonparametric models. Model fit diagnostics Root-Mean-Square-Error and Mean-Absolute-Scaled-Error were used to measure accuracy of predicted values from each model. A power analysis was used to evaluate the ability of each model to measure and detect change from baseline conditions. As many of these models have yet to be applied in MRE monitoring studies, results of this evaluation will generate comprehensive guidelines on choice of model to detect change in environmental monitoring data from MRE sites. The creation of standardized guidelines for model selection enables accurate comparison of change between life stages of a MRE project, within life stages to meet real time regulatory requirements, and comparison of environmental changes among MRE sites.

  17. Modeling the combined influence of host dispersal and waterborne fate and transport on pathogen spread in complex landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Ding; McDowell, Julia Z.; Davis, George M.; Spear, Robert C.; Remais, Justin V.

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models, often applied to questions on the fate and transport of chemical hazards, have recently become important in tracing certain environmental pathogens to their upstream sources of contamination. These tools, such as first order decay models applied to contaminants in surface waters, offer promise for quantifying the fate and transport of pathogens with multiple environmental stages and/or multiple hosts, in addition to those pathogens whose environmental stages are entirely waterborne. Here we consider the fate and transport capabilities of the human schistosome Schistosoma japonicum, which exhibits two waterborne stages and is carried by an amphibious intermediate snail host. We present experimentally-derived dispersal estimates for the intermediate snail host and fate and transport estimates for the passive downstream diffusion of cercariae, the waterborne, human-infective parasite stage. Using a one dimensional advective transport model exhibiting first-order decay, we simulate the added spatial reach and relative increase in cercarial concentrations that dispersing snail hosts contribute to downstream sites. Simulation results suggest that snail dispersal can substantially increase the concentrations of cercariae reaching downstream locations, relative to no snail dispersal, effectively putting otherwise isolated downstream sites at increased risk of exposure to cercariae from upstream sources. The models developed here can be applied to other infectious diseases with multiple life-stages and hosts, and have important implications for targeted ecological control of disease spread. PMID:23162675

  18. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    PubMed Central

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-01-01

    Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]). The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. Conclusion Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation. PMID:19361335

  19. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

    PubMed

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A Lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-04-10

    The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation.

  20. Bacteria transport simulation using APEX model in the Toenepi watershed, New Zealand

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is a distributed, continuous, daily-time step small watershed-scale hydrologic and water quality model. In this study, the newly developed fecal-derived bacteria fate and transport subroutine was applied and evalated using APEX model. The e...

  1. Modeling the fate and transport of bacteria in agricultural and pasture lands using APEX

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is a whole farm to small watershed scale continuous simulation model developed for evaluating various land management strategies. The current version, APEX0806, does not have the modeling capacity for fecal indicator bacteria fate and trans...

  2. Appendices to the model description document for a computer program for the emulation/simulation of a space station environmental control and life support system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yanosy, James L.

    1988-01-01

    A Model Description Document for the Emulation Simulation Computer Model was already published. The model consisted of a detailed model (emulation) of a SAWD CO2 removal subsystem which operated with much less detailed (simulation) models of a cabin, crew, and condensing and sensible heat exchangers. The purpose was to explore the utility of such an emulation simulation combination in the design, development, and test of a piece of ARS hardware, SAWD. Extensions to this original effort are presented. The first extension is an update of the model to reflect changes in the SAWD control logic which resulted from test. Also, slight changes were also made to the SAWD model to permit restarting and to improve the iteration technique. The second extension is the development of simulation models for more pieces of air and water processing equipment. Models are presented for: EDC, Molecular Sieve, Bosch, Sabatier, a new condensing heat exchanger, SPE, SFWES, Catalytic Oxidizer, and multifiltration. The third extension is to create two system simulations using these models. The first system presented consists of one air and one water processing system. The second consists of a potential air revitalization system.

  3. Functional enzyme-based modeling approach for dynamic simulation of denitrification process in hyporheic zone sediments: Genetically structured microbial community model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, H. S.; Li, M.; Qian, W.; Song, X.; Chen, X.; Scheibe, T. D.; Fredrickson, J.; Zachara, J. M.; Liu, C.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling environmental microbial communities at individual organism level is currently intractable due to overwhelming structural complexity. Functional guild-based approaches alleviate this problem by lumping microorganisms into fewer groups based on their functional similarities. This reduction may become ineffective, however, when individual species perform multiple functions as environmental conditions vary. In contrast, the functional enzyme-based modeling approach we present here describes microbial community dynamics based on identified functional enzymes (rather than individual species or their groups). Previous studies in the literature along this line used biomass or functional genes as surrogate measures of enzymes due to the lack of analytical methods for quantifying enzymes in environmental samples. Leveraging our recent development of a signature peptide-based technique enabling sensitive quantification of functional enzymes in environmental samples, we developed a genetically structured microbial community model (GSMCM) to incorporate enzyme concentrations and various other omics measurements (if available) as key modeling input. We formulated the GSMCM based on the cybernetic metabolic modeling framework to rationally account for cellular regulation without relying on empirical inhibition kinetics. In the case study of modeling denitrification process in Columbia River hyporheic zone sediments collected from the Hanford Reach, our GSMCM provided a quantitative fit to complex experimental data in denitrification, including the delayed response of enzyme activation to the change in substrate concentration. Our future goal is to extend the modeling scope to the prediction of carbon and nitrogen cycles and contaminant fate. Integration of a simpler version of the GSMCM with PFLOTRAN for multi-scale field simulations is in progress.

  4. Texas-specific drive cycles and idle emissions rates for using with EPA's MOVES model : final report.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-05-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys (EPA) newest emissions model, MOtor Vehicle : Emission Simulator (MOVES), uses a disaggregate approach that enables the users of the model to create : and use local drive schedules (drive cycles) in order ...

  5. Analysis of the interrelationship of energy, economy, and environment: A model of a sustainable energy future for Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boo, Kyung-Jin

    The primary purpose of this dissertation is to provide the groundwork for a sustainable energy future in Korea. For this purpose, a conceptual framework of sustainable energy development was developed to provide a deeper understanding of interrelationships between energy, the economy, and the environment (E 3). Based on this theoretical work, an empirical simulation model was developed to investigate the ways in which E3 interact. This dissertation attempts to develop a unified concept of sustainable energy development by surveying multiple efforts to integrate various definitions of sustainability. Sustainable energy development should be built on the basis of three principles: ecological carrying capacity, economic efficiency, and socio-political equity. Ecological carrying capacity delineates the earth's resource constraints as well as its ability to assimilate wastes. Socio-political equity implies an equitable distribution of the benefits and costs of energy consumption and an equitable distribution of environmental burdens. Economic efficiency dictates efficient allocation of scarce resources. The simulation model is composed of three modules: an energy module, an environmental module and an economic module. Because the model is grounded on economic structural behaviorism, the dynamic nature of the current economy is effectively depicted and simulated through manipulating exogenous policy variables. This macro-economic model is used to simulate six major policy intervention scenarios. Major findings from these policy simulations were: (1) carbon taxes are the most effective means of reducing air-pollutant emissions; (2) sustainable energy development can be achieved through reinvestment of carbon taxes into energy efficiency and renewable energy programs; and (3) carbon taxes would increase a nation's welfare if reinvested in relevant areas. The policy simulation model, because it is based on neoclassical economics, has limitations such that it cannot fully account for socio-political realities (inter- and intra-generational equity) which are core feature of sustainability. Thus, alternative approaches based on qualitative analysis, such as the multi-criteria approach, will be required to complement the current policy simulation model.

  6. Modeling and control for closed environment plant production systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fleisher, David H.; Ting, K. C.; Janes, H. W. (Principal Investigator)

    2002-01-01

    A computer program was developed to study multiple crop production and control in controlled environment plant production systems. The program simulates crop growth and development under nominal and off-nominal environments. Time-series crop models for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max), and white potato (Solanum tuberosum) are integrated with a model-based predictive controller. The controller evaluates and compensates for effects of environmental disturbances on crop production scheduling. The crop models consist of a set of nonlinear polynomial equations, six for each crop, developed using multivariate polynomial regression (MPR). Simulated data from DSSAT crop models, previously modified for crop production in controlled environments with hydroponics under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, were used for the MPR fitting. The model-based predictive controller adjusts light intensity, air temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration set points in response to environmental perturbations. Control signals are determined from minimization of a cost function, which is based on the weighted control effort and squared-error between the system response and desired reference signal.

  7. Design Tool for Planning Permanganate Injection Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-08-01

    Chemical Spill 10 CSTR continuously stirred tank reactors CT contact time EDB ethylene dibromide ESTCP Environmental Security Technology...63 6.2 Simulating Oxidant Distribution Using a Series of CSTRs ...ER- 0625. 6.2 SIMULATING OXIDANT DISTRIBUTION USING A SERIES OF CSTRS 6.2.1 MODEL DEVELOPMENT The transport and consumption of permanganate

  8. APEX simulation of runoff and total phosphorous for three adjacent row-crop watersheds with claypan soils

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model can simulate crop yields, runoff, and the transport of sediment and nutrients in small watersheds that have combinations of farm level landscapes, cropping systems and/or management practices. The objectives of the study were to parameteri...

  9. Simulating Fish Assemblages in Riverine Networks: Response to Habitat in the Willamette Watershed

    EPA Science Inventory

    We describe a modeling approach for simulating assemblages of fish in riverine landscapes. The approach allows a user to determine the scale and extent of river networks within which fish populations reproduce, move, and survive in response to both environmental drivers and assem...

  10. Estimating plant available water for general crop simulations in ALMANAC/APEX/EPIC/SWAT

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Process-based simulation models ALMANAC/APEX/EPIC/SWAT contain generalized plant growth subroutines to predict biomass and crop yield. Environmental constraints typically restrict plant growth and yield. Water stress is often an important limiting factor; it is calculated as the sum of water use f...

  11. Evaluating the Simulation of MetacommUnities for Riverine Fishes (SMURF) in the Calapooia Basin, OR

    EPA Science Inventory

    We describe a modeling approach for simulating assemblages of fish in riverine landscapes. The approach allows a user to determine the grain and extent of river networks within which fish populations reproduce, move, and survive in response to both environmental drivers and assem...

  12. Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Emmerik, T. H. M.; Li, Z.; Sivapalan, M.; Pande, S.; Kandasamy, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Chanan, A.; Vigneswaran, S.

    2014-03-01

    Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered on the Murrumbidgee River Basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different stages of basin scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized, quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to mimic dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution: reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and a measure of environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a competition between human "productive" and environmental "restorative" forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous, i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness, respectively. We propose this as a generalizable modeling framework for coupled human hydrological systems that is potentially transferable to systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings.

  13. Modeling the temporal dynamics of intertidal benthic infauna biomass with environmental factors: Impact assessment of land reclamation.

    PubMed

    Yang, Ye; Chui, Ting Fong May; Shen, Ping Ping; Yang, Yang; Gu, Ji Dong

    2018-03-15

    Anthropogenic activities such as land reclamation are threatening tidal marshes worldwide. This study's hypothesis is that land reclamation in a semi-enclosed bay alters the seasonal dynamics of intertidal benthic infauna, which is a key component in the tidal marsh ecosystem. Mai Po Tidal Marsh, Deep Bay, Pearl River Estuary, China was used as a case study to evaluate the hypothesis. Ecological models that simulate benthic biomass dynamics with governing environmental factors were developed, and various scenario experiments were conducted to evaluate the impact of reclamations. Environmental variables, selected from the areas of hydrodynamics, meteorology, and water quality based on correlation analysis, were used to generate Bayesian regression models for biomass prediction. The best-performing model, which considered average water age (i.e., a hydrodynamic indicator of estuarine circulation) in the previous month, salinity variation (i.e., standard deviation of salinity), and the total sunny period in the current month, captured well both seasonal and yearly trends in the benthic infauna observations from 2002 to 2008. This model was then used to simulate biomass dynamics with varying inputs of water age and salinity variation from coastal numerical models of different reclamation scenarios. The simulation results suggest that the reclamation in 2007 decreased the spatial and annual average benthic infauna biomass in the tidal marsh by 20%, which agreed with the 28% biomass decrease recorded by field survey. The range of biomass seasonal variation also decreased significantly from 2.1 to 230.5g/m 2 (without any reclamation) to 1.2 to 131.1g/m 2 (after the 2007 reclamation), which further demonstrates the substantial ecological impact of reclamation. The ecological model developed in this study could simulate seasonal biomass dynamics and evaluate the ecological impact of reclamation projects. It can therefore be applied to evaluate the ecological impact of coastal engineering projects for tidal marsh management, conservation, and restoration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

    2016-02-01

    The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

  15. An introduction to three-dimensional climate modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Washington, W. M.; Parkinson, C. L.

    1986-01-01

    The development and use of three-dimensional computer models of the earth's climate are discussed. The processes and interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice are examined. The basic theory of climate simulation which includes the fundamental equations, models, and numerical techniques for simulating the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice is described. Simulated wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea ice distribution data are presented and compared to observational data. The responses of the climate to various environmental changes, such as variations in solar output or increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, are modeled. Future developments in climate modeling are considered. Information is also provided on the derivation of the energy equation, the finite difference barotropic forecast model, the spectral transform technique, and the finite difference shallow water waved equation model.

  16. Analysis of the Effect of Environmental Conditions in Conducting Amphibious Assaults Using a Ship Simulator/Vessel-Response Model Proof-of-Concept Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-05-01

    Center ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute GIS Geographic Information System HTML Hyper -Text Markup Language LCAC Landing Craft Air... loop .” The ship simulator bridge is generic in that its layout is similar to that found in a variety of ships. As shown in Figures 17 and 18, the...information stored in the geodatabases. The Hyper -Text Markup Language (HTML) capability built into ArcMap permits a planner to click on a vessel track and

  17. One multi-media environmental system with linkage between meteorology/ hydrology/ air quality models and water quality model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, C.; Lynch, J. A.; Dennis, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    The biogeochemical processing of nitrogen and associated pollutants is driven by meteorological and hydrological processes in conjunction with pollutant loading. There are feedbacks between meteorology and hydrology that will be affected by land-use change and climate change. Changes in meteorology will affect pollutant deposition. It is important to account for those feedbacks and produce internally consistent simulations of meteorology, hydrology, and pollutant loading to drive the (watershed/water quality) biogeochemical models. In this study, the ecological response to emission reductions in streams in the Potomac watershed was evaluated. Firstly, we simulated the deposition by using the fully coupled Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CAMQ) model; secondly, we created the hydrological data by the offline linked Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the WRF model. Lastly, we investigated the water quality by one comprehensive/environment model, namely the linkage of CMAQ, WRF, VIC and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchment (MAGIC) model from 2002 to 2010.The simulated results (such as NO3, SO4, and SBC) fit well to the observed values. The linkage provides a generally accurate, well-tested tool for evaluating sensitivities to varying meteorology and environmental changes on acidification and other biogeochemical processes, with capability to comprehensively explore strategic policy and management design.

  18. Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In the fall of 2015, CMAQ version 5.1 was released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important bug fixes to several issues that were identified in CMAQv5.0.2 and additionally include updates to other portions of the code. Several annual, and numerous episodic, CMAQv5.1 simulations were performed to assess the impact of these improvements on the model results. These results will be presented, along with a base evaluation of the performance of the CMAQv5.1 modeling system against available surface and upper-air measurements available during the time period simulated. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, proces

  19. Multiple attractors and dynamics in an OLG model with productive environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caravaggio, Andrea; Sodini, Mauro

    2018-05-01

    This work analyses an overlapping generations model in which economic activity depends on the exploitation of a free-access natural resource. In addition, public expenditures for environmental maintenance are assumed. By characterising some properties of the map and performing numerical simulations, we investigate consequences of the interplay between environmental public expenditure and private sector. In particular, we identify different scenarios in which multiple equilibria as well as complex dynamics may arise.

  20. Steering of Upper Ocean Currents and Fronts by the Topographically Constrained Abyssal Circulation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-07-06

    a) Mean surface dynamic height relative to 1000 m from version 2.5 of the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) oceanic climatology, an...NLOM simulations in comparison to the mean surface dynamic height with respect to 1000 m from the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ...the Kuroshio pathway east of Japan, giving much better agreement with the pathway in the GDEM climatology. Dynamics of the topographic impact on

  1. Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.2

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

  2. Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model Version 5.2

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

  3. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  4. Model-assisted analysis of spatial and temporal variations in fruit temperature and transpiration highlighting the role of fruit development.

    PubMed

    Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Saudreau, Marc; Joas, Jacques; Génard, Michel

    2014-01-01

    Fruit physiology is strongly affected by both fruit temperature and water losses through transpiration. Fruit temperature and its transpiration vary with environmental factors and fruit characteristics. In line with previous studies, measurements of physical and thermal fruit properties were found to significantly vary between fruit tissues and maturity stages. To study the impact of these variations on fruit temperature and transpiration, a modelling approach was used. A physical model was developed to predict the spatial and temporal variations of fruit temperature and transpiration according to the spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and thermal and physical fruit properties. Model predictions compared well to temperature measurements on mango fruits, making it possible to accurately simulate the daily temperature variations of the sunny and shaded sides of fruits. Model simulations indicated that fruit development induced an increase in both the temperature gradient within the fruit and fruit water losses, mainly due to fruit expansion. However, the evolution of fruit characteristics has only a very slight impact on the average temperature and the transpiration per surface unit. The importance of temperature and transpiration gradients highlighted in this study made it necessary to take spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and fruit characteristics into account to model fruit physiology.

  5. Appendices to the user's manual for a computer program for the emulation/simulation of a space station environmental control and life support system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yanosy, James L.

    1988-01-01

    A user's Manual for the Emulation Simulation Computer Model was published previously. The model consisted of a detailed model (emulation) of a SAWD CO2 removal subsystem which operated with much less detailed (simulation) models of a cabin, crew, and condensing and sensible heat exchangers. The purpose was to explore the utility of such an emulation/simulation combination in the design, development, and test of a piece of ARS hardware - SAWD. Extensions to this original effort are presented. The first extension is an update of the model to reflect changes in the SAWD control logic which resulted from the test. In addition, slight changes were also made to the SAWD model to permit restarting and to improve the iteration technique. The second extension is the development of simulation models for more pieces of air and water processing equipment. Models are presented for: EDC, Molecular Sieve, Bosch, Sabatier, a new condensing heat exchanger, SPE, SFWES, Catalytic Oxidizer, and multifiltration. The third extension is to create two system simulations using these models. The first system presented consists of one air and one water processing system, the second a potential Space Station air revitalization system.

  6. Regulatory off-gas analysis from the evaporation of Hanford simulated waste spiked with organic compounds.

    PubMed

    Saito, Hiroshi H; Calloway, T Bond; Ferrara, Daro M; Choi, Alexander S; White, Thomas L; Gibson, Luther V; Burdette, Mark A

    2004-10-01

    After strontium/transuranics removal by precipitation followed by cesium/technetium removal by ion exchange, the remaining low-activity waste in the Hanford River Protection Project Waste Treatment Plant is to be concentrated by evaporation before being mixed with glass formers and vitrified. To provide a technical basis to permit the waste treatment facility, a relatively organic-rich Hanford Tank 241-AN-107 waste simulant was spiked with 14 target volatile, semi-volatile, and pesticide compounds and evaporated under vacuum in a bench-scale natural circulation evaporator fitted with an industrial stack off-gas sampler at the Savannah River National Laboratory. An evaporator material balance for the target organics was calculated by combining liquid stream mass and analytical data with off-gas emissions estimates obtained using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) SW-846 Methods. Volatile and light semi-volatile organic compounds (<220 degrees C BP, >1 mm Hg vapor pressure) in the waste simulant were found to largely exit through the condenser vent, while heavier semi-volatiles and pesticides generally remain in the evaporator concentrate. An OLI Environmental Simulation Program (licensed by OLI Systems, Inc.) evaporator model successfully predicted operating conditions and the experimental distribution of the fed target organics exiting in the concentrate, condensate, and off-gas streams, with the exception of a few semi-volatile and pesticide compounds. Comparison with Henry's Law predictions suggests the OLI Environmental Simulation Program model is constrained by available literature data.

  7. Multi-site evaluation of APEX for crop and grazing land in the Heartland region of the US

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural and Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) is capable of estimating edge-of-field water, nutrient, and sediment transport and is used to assess the environmental impacts of management practices. Current practice is to fully calibrate the model for each site simulation, which requires ...

  8. A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

  9. Request for Correction of Information Concerning the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's EPAct/V2/E-89 Fuel Effects Study and Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator Model (MOVES2014) Docket ID Nos. EPA420-R-13-002, FRL-9917-26-OAR

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Petition for the US EPA to correct information concerning motor vehicle fiel emissions represented in the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator model (MOVES2014) and the EPAct/V2/E-89 fuel effects study (EPAct study)1 on which it is based

  10. Re-design of a physically-based catchment scale agrochemical model for the simulation of parameter spaces and flexible transformation schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stegen, Ronald; Gassmann, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    The use of a broad variation of agrochemicals is essential for the modern industrialized agriculture. During the last decades, the awareness of the side effects of their use has grown and with it the requirement to reproduce, understand and predict the behaviour of these agrochemicals in the environment, in order to optimize their use and minimize the side effects. The modern modelling has made great progress in understanding and predicting these chemicals with digital methods. While the behaviour of the applied chemicals is often investigated and modelled, most studies only simulate parent chemicals, considering total annihilation of the substance. However, due to a diversity of chemical, physical and biological processes, the substances are rather transformed into new chemicals, which themselves are transformed until, at the end of the chain, the substance is completely mineralized. During this process, the fate of each transformation product is determined by its own environmental characteristics and the pathway and results of transformation can differ largely by substance and environmental influences, that can occur in different compartments of the same site. Simulating transformation products introduces additional model uncertainties. Thus, the calibration effort increases compared to simulations of the transport and degradation of the primary substance alone. The simulation of the necessary physical processes needs a lot of calculation time. Due to that, few physically-based models offer the possibility to simulate transformation products at all, mostly at the field scale. The few models available for the catchment scale are not optimized for this duty, i.e. they are only able to simulate a single parent compound and up to two transformation products. Thus, for simulations of large physico-chemical parameter spaces, the enormous calculation time of the underlying hydrological model diminishes the overall performance. In this study, the structure of the model ZIN-AGRITRA is re-designed for the transport and transformation of an unlimited amount of agrochemicals in the soil-water-plant system at catchment scale. The focus is, besides a good hydrological standard, on a flexible variation of transformation processes and the optimization for the use of large numbers of different substances. Due to the new design, a reduction of the calculation time per tested substance is acquired, allowing faster testing of parameter spaces. Additionally, the new concept allows for the consideration of different transformation processes and products in different environmental compartments. A first test of calculation time improvements and flexible transformation pathways was performed in a Mediterranean meso-scale catchment, using the insecticide Chlorpyrifos and two of its transformation products, which emerge from different transformation processes, as test substances.

  11. Advanced Thermal Barrier and Environmental Barrier Coating Development at NASA GRC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Dongming; Robinson, Craig

    2017-01-01

    This presentation summarizes NASA's advanced thermal barrier and environmental barrier coating systems, and the coating performance improvements that has recently been achieved and documented in laboratory simulated rig test conditions. One of the emphases has been placed on the toughness and impact resistance enhancements of the low conductivity, defect cluster thermal barrier coating systems. The advances in the next generation environmental barrier coatings for SiCSiC ceramic matrix composites have also been highlighted, particularly in the design of a new series of oxide-silicate composition systems to be integrated with next generation SiC-SiC turbine engine components for 2700F coating applications. Major technical barriers in developing the thermal and environmental barrier coating systems are also described. The performance and model validations in the rig simulated turbine combustion, heat flux, steam and calcium-magnesium-aluminosilicate (CMAS) environments have helped the current progress in improved temperature capability, environmental stability, and long-term fatigue-environment system durability of the advanced thermal and environmental barrier coating systems.

  12. Preparing the EPIC Model for Evaluating Bioenergy Production Systems: A Test of the Denitrification Submodel using a Long-Term Dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manowitz, D. H.; Schwab, D. E.; Izaurralde, R. C.

    2010-12-01

    As bioenergy production continues to increase, it is important to be able to predict not only the crop yields that are expected from future production, but also the various environmental impacts that will accompany it. Therefore, models that can be used to make such predictions must be validated against as many of these agricultural outputs as possible. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model is a widely used and tested model for simulating many agricultural ecosystem processes including plant growth, crop yield, carbon and nutrient cycling, wind and water erosion, runoff, leaching, as well as changes in soil physical and chemical properties. This model has undergone many improvements, including the addition of a process-based denitrification submodel. Here we evaluate the performance of EPIC in its ability to simulate nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes and related variables as observed in selected treatments of the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) cropping systems study at Kellogg Biological Station (KBS). We will provide a brief description of the EPIC model in the context of bioenergy production, describe the denitrification submodel, and compare simulated and observed values of crop yields, N2O emissions, soil carbon dynamics, and soil moisture.

  13. Use of Combined Biogeochemical Model Approaches and Empirical Data to Assess Critical Loads of Nitrogen

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fenn, Mark E.; Driscoll, Charles; Zhou, Qingtao

    2015-01-01

    Empirical and dynamic biogeochemical modelling are complementary approaches for determining the critical load (CL) of atmospheric nitrogen (N) or other constituent deposition that an ecosystem can tolerate without causing ecological harm. The greatest benefits are obtained when these approaches are used in combination. Confounding environmental factors can complicate the determination of empirical CLs across depositional gradients, while the experimental application of N amendments for estimating the CL does not realistically mimic the effects of chronic atmospheric N deposition. Biogeochemical and vegetation simulation models can provide CL estimates and valuable ecosystem response information, allowing for past and future scenario testing withmore » various combinations of environmental factors, pollutants, pollutant control options, land management, and ecosystem response parameters. Even so, models are fundamentally gross simplifications of the real ecosystems they attempt to simulate. Empirical approaches are vital as a check on simulations and CL estimates, to parameterize models, and to elucidate mechanisms and responses under real world conditions. In this chapter, we provide examples of empirical and modelled N CL approaches in ecosystems from three regions of the United States: mixed conifer forest, desert scrub and pinyon- juniper woodland in California; alpine catchments in the Rocky Mountains; and lakes in the Adirondack region of New York state.« less

  14. EPIC-Simulated and MODIS-Derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter in assessing vegetation structure for characterizing forest canopies over large areas at broad spatial scales using satellite remote sensing data. However, satellite-derived LAI products can be limited by obstructed atmospheric conditions yielding sub-optimal values, or complete non-returns. The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Methods and Measurements and Computational Exposure Divisions are investigating the viability of supplemental modelled LAI inputs into satellite-derived data streams to support various regional and local scale air quality models for retrospective and future climate assessments. In this present study, one-year (2002) of plot level stand characteristics at four study sites located in Virginia and North Carolina are used to calibrate species-specific plant parameters in a semi-empirical biogeochemical model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was designed primarily for managed agricultural field crop ecosystems, but also includes managed woody species that span both xeric and mesic sites (e.g., mesquite, pine, oak, etc.). LAI was simulated using EPIC at a 4 km2 and 12 km2 grid coincident with the regional Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) grid. LAI comparisons were made between model-simulated and MODIS-derived LAI. Field/satellite-upscaled LAI was also compared to the corresponding MODIS LAI value. Preliminary results show field/satel

  15. Modeling the effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on a simulated population of African lions.

    PubMed

    Whitman, Karyl L; Starfield, Anthony M; Quadling, Henley; Packer, Craig

    2007-06-01

    Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (> or = 3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (> or = 6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15-25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity.

  16. Development of solute transport models in YMPYRÄ framework to simulate solute migration in military shooting and training areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warsta, L.; Karvonen, T.

    2017-12-01

    There are currently 25 shooting and training areas in Finland managed by The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF), where military activities can cause contamination of open waters and groundwater reservoirs. In the YMPYRÄ project, a computer software framework is being developed that combines existing open environmental data and proprietary information collected by FDF with computational models to investigate current and prevent future environmental problems. A data centric philosophy is followed in the development of the system, i.e. the models are updated and extended to handle available data from different areas. The results generated by the models are summarized as easily understandable flow and risk maps that can be opened in GIS programs and used in environmental assessments by experts. Substances investigated with the system include explosives and metals such as lead, and both surface and groundwater dominated areas can be simulated. The YMPYRÄ framework is composed of a three dimensional soil and groundwater flow model, several solute transport models and an uncertainty assessment system. Solute transport models in the framework include particle based, stream tube and finite volume based approaches. The models can be used to simulate solute dissolution from source area, transport in the unsaturated layers to groundwater and finally migration in groundwater to water extraction wells and springs. The models can be used to simulate advection, dispersion, equilibrium adsorption on soil particles, solubility and dissolution from solute phase and dendritic solute decay chains. Correct numerical solutions were confirmed by comparing results to analytical 1D and 2D solutions and by comparing the numerical solutions to each other. The particle based and stream tube type solute transport models were useful as they could complement the traditional finite volume based approach which in certain circumstances produced numerical dispersion due to piecewise solution of the governing equations in computational grids and included computationally intensive and in some cases unstable iterative solutions. The YMPYRÄ framework is being developed by WaterHope, Gain Oy, and SITO Oy consulting companies and funded by FDF.

  17. Use of soft data for multi-criteria calibration and validation of APEX: Impact on model simulations

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    It is widely known that the use of soft data and multiple model performance criteria in model calibration and validation is critical to ensuring the model capture major hydrologic and water quality processes. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) is a hydrologic and water quality mod...

  18. Identifying influences on model uncertainty: an application using a forest carbon budget model

    Treesearch

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2001-01-01

    Uncertainty is an important consideration for both developers and users of environmental simulation models. Establishing quantitative estimates of uncertainty for deterministic models can be difficult when the underlying bases for such information are scarce. We demonstrate an application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis that provides for refinements in...

  19. Non-Markovianity in the collision model with environmental block

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Jiasen; Yu, Chang-shui

    2018-05-01

    We present an extended collision model to simulate the dynamics of an open quantum system. In our model, the unit to represent the environment is, instead of a single particle, a block which consists of a number of environment particles. The introduced blocks enable us to study the effects of different strategies of system–environment interactions and states of the blocks on the non-Markovianities. We demonstrate our idea in the Gaussian channels of an all-optical system and derive a necessary and sufficient condition of non-Markovianity for such channels. Moreover, we show the equivalence of our criterion to the non-Markovian quantum jump in the simulation of the pure damping process of a single-mode field. We also show that the non-Markovianity of the channel working in the strategy that the system collides with environmental particles in each block in a certain order will be affected by the size of the block and the embedded entanglement and the effects of heating and squeezing the vacuum environmental state will quantitatively enhance the non-Markovianity.

  20. Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

    DOE PAGES

    Sippel, Sebastian; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; ...

    2016-10-20

    Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observedmore » and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. Here we demonstrate that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics.« less

  1. Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observedmore » and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. Here we demonstrate that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics.« less

  2. Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

    PubMed Central

    Sippel, Sebastian; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Hauhs, Michael; Bodesheim, Paul; Kaminski, Thomas; Gans, Fabian; Rosso, Osvaldo A.

    2016-01-01

    Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observed and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. We demonstrate here that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics. PMID:27764187

  3. Computational Embryology and Predictive Toxicology of Cleft Palate

    EPA Science Inventory

    Capacity to model and simulate key events in developmental toxicity using computational systems biology and biological knowledge steps closer to hazard identification across the vast landscape of untested environmental chemicals. In this context, we chose cleft palate as a model ...

  4. A PROBABILISTIC MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO BENZENE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is modifying their probabilistic Stochastic Human Exposure Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model to assess aggregate exposures to air toxics. Air toxics include urban Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS) such as benzene from mobile sources, part...

  5. Urban stormwater inundation simulation based on SWMM and diffusive overland-flow model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wenjie; Huang, Guoru; Zhang, Han

    2017-12-01

    With rapid urbanization, inundation-induced property losses have become more and more severe. Urban inundation modeling is an effective way to reduce these losses. This paper introduces a simplified urban stormwater inundation simulation model based on the United States Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and a geographic information system (GIS)-based diffusive overland-flow model. SWMM is applied for computation of flows in storm sewer systems and flooding flows at junctions, while the GIS-based diffusive overland-flow model simulates surface runoff and inundation. One observed rainfall scenario on Haidian Island, Hainan Province, China was chosen to calibrate the model and the other two were used for validation. Comparisons of the model results with field-surveyed data and InfoWorks ICM (Integrated Catchment Modeling) modeled results indicated the inundation model in this paper can provide inundation extents and reasonable inundation depths even in a large study area.

  6. Application of the malaria management model to the analysis of costs and benefits of DDT versus non-DDT malaria control.

    PubMed

    Pedercini, Matteo; Movilla Blanco, Santiago; Kopainsky, Birgit

    2011-01-01

    DDT is considered to be the most cost-effective insecticide for combating malaria. However, it is also the most environmentally persistent and can pose risks to human health when sprayed indoors. Therefore, the use of DDT for vector control remains controversial. In this paper we develop a computer-based simulation model to assess some of the costs and benefits of the continued use of DDT for Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) versus its rapid phase out. We apply the prototype model to the aggregated sub Saharan African region. For putting the question about the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out into perspective we calculate the same costs and benefits for alternative combinations of integrated vector management interventions. Our simulation results confirm that the current mix of integrated vector management interventions with DDT as the main insecticide is cheaper than the same mix with alternative insecticides when only direct costs are considered. However, combinations with a stronger focus on insecticide-treated bed nets and environmental management show higher levels of cost-effectiveness than interventions with a focus on IRS. Thus, this focus would also allow phasing out DDT in a cost-effective manner. Although a rapid phase out of DDT for IRS is the most expensive of the tested intervention combinations it can have important economic benefits in addition to health and environmental impacts that are difficult to assess in monetary terms. Those economic benefits captured by the model include the avoided risk of losses in agricultural exports. The prototype simulation model illustrates how a computer-based scenario analysis tool can inform debates on malaria control policies in general and on the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out in specific. Simulation models create systematic mechanisms for analyzing alternative interventions and making informed trade offs.

  7. Application of the Malaria Management Model to the Analysis of Costs and Benefits of DDT versus Non-DDT Malaria Control

    PubMed Central

    Pedercini, Matteo; Movilla Blanco, Santiago; Kopainsky, Birgit

    2011-01-01

    Introduction DDT is considered to be the most cost-effective insecticide for combating malaria. However, it is also the most environmentally persistent and can pose risks to human health when sprayed indoors. Therefore, the use of DDT for vector control remains controversial. Methods In this paper we develop a computer-based simulation model to assess some of the costs and benefits of the continued use of DDT for Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) versus its rapid phase out. We apply the prototype model to the aggregated sub Saharan African region. For putting the question about the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out into perspective we calculate the same costs and benefits for alternative combinations of integrated vector management interventions. Results Our simulation results confirm that the current mix of integrated vector management interventions with DDT as the main insecticide is cheaper than the same mix with alternative insecticides when only direct costs are considered. However, combinations with a stronger focus on insecticide-treated bed nets and environmental management show higher levels of cost-effectiveness than interventions with a focus on IRS. Thus, this focus would also allow phasing out DDT in a cost-effective manner. Although a rapid phase out of DDT for IRS is the most expensive of the tested intervention combinations it can have important economic benefits in addition to health and environmental impacts that are difficult to assess in monetary terms. Those economic benefits captured by the model include the avoided risk of losses in agricultural exports. Conclusions The prototype simulation model illustrates how a computer-based scenario analysis tool can inform debates on malaria control policies in general and on the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out in specific. Simulation models create systematic mechanisms for analyzing alternative interventions and making informed trade offs. PMID:22140467

  8. Climate-based models for West Nile Culex mosquito vectors in the Northeastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Hongfei; Degaetano, Arthur T.; Harrington, Laura C.

    2011-05-01

    Climate-based models simulating Culex mosquito population abundance in the Northeastern US were developed. Two West Nile vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, were included in model simulations. The model was optimized by a parameter-space search within biological bounds. Mosquito population dynamics were driven by major environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, evaporation rate and photoperiod. The results show a strong correlation between the timing of early population increases (as early warning of West Nile virus risk) and decreases in late summer. Simulated abundance was highly correlated with actual mosquito capture in New Jersey light traps and validated with field data. This climate-based model simulates the population dynamics of both the adult and immature mosquito life stage of Culex arbovirus vectors in the Northeastern US. It is expected to have direct and practical application for mosquito control and West Nile prevention programs.

  9. Modeling the world in a spreadsheet: Environmental simulation on a microcomputer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cartwright, T.J.

    1993-12-31

    This article focuses on the following: Modeling Natural Systems Blowing Smoke; Atmospheric Dispersion of Air Pollution Running Water; The Underground Transport of Pollutants Preserving the Species; Determining Minimum Viable Population Sustainable Yield; Managing the Forest for the Trees Here Comes the Sun; Solar Energy from a Flat-Plate Collector Modeling Social Systems Macroeconomic Policy; Econometrics and the Klein Model Urban Form; The Lowry Model of Population Distribution Affordable Housing; The Bertaud/World Bank Model Traffic on the Roads; Modeling Trip Generation and Trip Distribution Throwing Things Away; A Model for Waste Management Apples and Oranges; and An Environmental Impact Assessment Model Modelingmore » Artificial Systems Life in a Spreadsheet.« less

  10. SToRM: A numerical model for environmental surface flows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simoes, Francisco J.

    2009-01-01

    SToRM (System for Transport and River Modeling) is a numerical model developed to simulate free surface flows in complex environmental domains. It is based on the depth-averaged St. Venant equations, which are discretized using unstructured upwind finite volume methods, and contains both steady and unsteady solution techniques. This article provides a brief description of the numerical approach selected to discretize the governing equations in space and time, including important aspects of solving natural environmental flows, such as the wetting and drying algorithm. The presentation is illustrated with several application examples, covering both laboratory and natural river flow cases, which show the model’s ability to solve complex flow phenomena.

  11. Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

  12. Overview and Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model Version 5.2

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

  13. Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.2

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

  14. Development of a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tool in R for parametrization of the APEX model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Hydrologic models are used to simulate the responses of agricultural systems to different inputs and management strategies to identify alternative management practices to cope up with future climate and/or geophysical changes. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) is a model develope...

  15. NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE MODELING OF PM 2.5 AND AIR TOXICS CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTIONS TO DRIVE HUMAN EXPOSURE MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Air quality (AQ) simulation models provide a basis for implementing the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and are a tool for performing risk-based assessments and for developing environmental management strategies. Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), its constituent...

  16. Validation of a national hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMillan, H. K.; Booker, D. J.; Cattoën, C.

    2016-10-01

    Nationwide predictions of flow time-series are valuable for development of policies relating to environmental flows, calculating reliability of supply to water users, or assessing risk of floods or droughts. This breadth of model utility is possible because various hydrological signatures can be derived from simulated flow time-series. However, producing national hydrological simulations can be challenging due to strong environmental diversity across catchments and a lack of data available to aid model parameterisation. A comprehensive and consistent suite of test procedures to quantify spatial and temporal patterns in performance across various parts of the hydrograph is described and applied to quantify the performance of an uncalibrated national rainfall-runoff model of New Zealand. Flow time-series observed at 485 gauging stations were used to calculate Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias when simulating between-site differences in daily series, between-year differences in annual series, and between-site differences in hydrological signatures. The procedures were used to assess the benefit of applying a correction to the modelled flow duration curve based on an independent statistical analysis. They were used to aid understanding of climatological, hydrological and model-based causes of differences in predictive performance by assessing multiple hypotheses that describe where and when the model was expected to perform best. As the procedures produce quantitative measures of performance, they provide an objective basis for model assessment that could be applied when comparing observed daily flow series with competing simulated flow series from any region-wide or nationwide hydrological model. Model performance varied in space and time with better scores in larger and medium-wet catchments, and in catchments with smaller seasonal variations. Surprisingly, model performance was not sensitive to aquifer fraction or rain gauge density.

  17. 26th Space Simulation Conference Proceedings. Environmental Testing: The Path Forward

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Packard, Edward A.

    2010-01-01

    Topics covered include: A Multifunctional Space Environment Simulation Facility for Accelerated Spacecraft Materials Testing; Exposure of Spacecraft Surface Coatings in a Simulated GEO Radiation Environment; Gravity-Offloading System for Large-Displacement Ground Testing of Spacecraft Mechanisms; Microscopic Shutters Controlled by cRIO in Sounding Rocket; Application of a Physics-Based Stabilization Criterion to Flight System Thermal Testing; Upgrade of a Thermal Vacuum Chamber for 20 Kelvin Operations; A New Approach to Improve the Uniformity of Solar Simulator; A Perfect Space Simulation Storm; A Planetary Environmental Simulator/Test Facility; Collimation Mirror Segment Refurbishment inside ESA s Large Space; Space Simulation of the CBERS 3 and 4 Satellite Thermal Model in the New Brazilian 6x8m Thermal Vacuum Chamber; The Certification of Environmental Chambers for Testing Flight Hardware; Space Systems Environmental Test Facility Database (SSETFD), Website Development Status; Wallops Flight Facility: Current and Future Test Capabilities for Suborbital and Orbital Projects; Force Limited Vibration Testing of JWST NIRSpec Instrument Using Strain Gages; Investigation of Acoustic Field Uniformity in Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Recent Developments in Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Assembly, Integration and Test Centre in Malaysia: Integration between Building Construction Works and Equipment Installation; Complex Ground Support Equipment for Satellite Thermal Vacuum Test; Effect of Charging Electron Exposure on 1064nm Transmission through Bare Sapphire Optics and SiO2 over HfO2 AR-Coated Sapphire Optics; Environmental Testing Activities and Capabilities for Turkish Space Industry; Integrated Circuit Reliability Simulation in Space Environments; Micrometeoroid Impacts and Optical Scatter in Space Environment; Overcoming Unintended Consequences of Ambient Pressure Thermal Cycling Environmental Tests; Performance and Functionality Improvements to Next Generation Thermal Vacuum Control System; Robotic Lunar Lander Development Project: Three-Dimensional Dynamic Stability Testing and Analysis; Thermal Physical Properties of Thermal Coatings for Spacecraft in Wide Range of Environmental Conditions: Experimental and Theoretical Study; Molecular Contamination Generated in Thermal Vacuum Chambers; Preventing Cross Contamination of Hardware in Thermal Vacuum Chambers; Towards Validation of Particulate Transport Code; Updated Trends in Materials' Outgassing Technology; Electrical Power and Data Acquisition Setup for the CBER 3 and 4 Satellite TBT; Method of Obtaining High Resolution Intrinsic Wire Boom Damping Parameters for Multi-Body Dynamics Simulations; and Thermal Vacuum Testing with Scalable Software Developed In-House.

  18. Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

    2012-01-01

    Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

  19. Environmental water demand assessment under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Sarzaeim, Parisa; Bozorg-Haddad, Omid; Fallah-Mehdipour, Elahe; Loáiciga, Hugo A

    2017-07-01

    Measures taken to cope with the possible effects of climate change on water resources management are key for the successful adaptation to such change. This work assesses the environmental water demand of the Karkheh river in the reach comprising Karkheh dam to the Hoor-al-Azim wetland, Iran, under climate change during the period 2010-2059. The assessment of the environmental demand applies (1) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) downscaling methods. The first phase of this work projects temperature and rainfall in the period 2010-2059 under three RCPs and with two downscaling methods. Thus, six climatic scenarios are generated. The results showed that temperature and rainfall average would increase in the range of 1.7-5.2 and 1.9-9.2%, respectively. Subsequently, flows corresponding to the six different climatic scenarios are simulated with the unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation, and stream flow data (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model and are input to the Karkheh reservoir. The simulation results indicated increases of 0.9-7.7% in the average flow under the six simulation scenarios during the period of analysis. The second phase of this paper's methodology determines the monthly minimum environmental water demands of the Karkheh river associated with the six simulation scenarios using a hydrological method. The determined environmental demands are compared with historical ones. The results show that the temporal variation of monthly environmental demand would change under climate change conditions. Furthermore, some climatic scenarios project environmental water demand larger than and some of them project less than the baseline one.

  20. Simulation of water environmental capacity and pollution load reduction using QUAL2K for water environmental management.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Yuan, Xingcheng; Ye, Rui; Xia, Bisheng; Wang, Yulei

    2012-12-07

    In recent years, water quality degradation associated with rapid socio-economic development in the Taihu Lake Basin, China, has attracted increasing attention from both the public and the Chinese government. The primary sources of pollution in Taihu Lake are its inflow rivers and their tributaries. Effective water environmental management strategies need to be implemented in these rivers to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake, and to ensure sustainable development in the region. The aim of this study was to provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. In this study, the QUAL2K model for river and stream water quality was applied to predict the water quality and environmental capacity of the Hongqi River, which is a polluted tributary in the Taihu Lake Basin. The model parameters were calibrated by trial and error until the simulated results agreed well with the observed data. The calibrated QUAL2K model was used to calculate the water environmental capacity of the Hongqi River, and the water environmental capacities of COD(Cr) NH(3)-N, TN, and TP were 17.51 t, 1.52 t, 2.74 t and 0.37 t, respectively. The results showed that the NH(3)-N, TN, and TP pollution loads of the studied river need to be reduced by 50.96%, 44.11%, and 22.92%, respectively to satisfy the water quality objectives. Thus, additional water pollution control measures are needed to control and reduce the pollution loads in the Hongqi River watershed. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making.

  1. Simulation of Water Environmental Capacity and Pollution Load Reduction Using QUAL2K for Water Environmental Management

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Yuan, Xingcheng; Ye, Rui; Xia, Bisheng; Wang, Yulei

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, water quality degradation associated with rapid socio-economic development in the Taihu Lake Basin, China, has attracted increasing attention from both the public and the Chinese government. The primary sources of pollution in Taihu Lake are its inflow rivers and their tributaries. Effective water environmental management strategies need to be implemented in these rivers to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake, and to ensure sustainable development in the region. The aim of this study was to provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. In this study, the QUAL2K model for river and stream water quality was applied to predict the water quality and environmental capacity of the Hongqi River, which is a polluted tributary in the Taihu Lake Basin. The model parameters were calibrated by trial and error until the simulated results agreed well with the observed data. The calibrated QUAL2K model was used to calculate the water environmental capacity of the Hongqi River, and the water environmental capacities of CODCr NH3-N, TN, and TP were 17.51 t, 1.52 t, 2.74 t and 0.37 t, respectively. The results showed that the NH3-N, TN, and TP pollution loads of the studied river need to be reduced by 50.96%, 44.11%, and 22.92%, respectively to satisfy the water quality objectives. Thus, additional water pollution control measures are needed to control and reduce the pollution loads in the Hongqi River watershed. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:23222206

  2. Applications of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in the modelling and design of ventilation systems in the agricultural industry: a review.

    PubMed

    Norton, Tomás; Sun, Da-Wen; Grant, Jim; Fallon, Richard; Dodd, Vincent

    2007-09-01

    The application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in the agricultural industry is becoming ever more important. Over the years, the versatility, accuracy and user-friendliness offered by CFD has led to its increased take-up by the agricultural engineering community. Now CFD is regularly employed to solve environmental problems of greenhouses and animal production facilities. However, due to a combination of increased computer efficacy and advanced numerical techniques, the realism of these simulations has only been enhanced in recent years. This study provides a state-of-the-art review of CFD, its current applications in the design of ventilation systems for agricultural production systems, and the outstanding challenging issues that confront CFD modellers. The current status of greenhouse CFD modelling was found to be at a higher standard than that of animal housing, owing to the incorporation of user-defined routines that simulate crop biological responses as a function of local environmental conditions. Nevertheless, the most recent animal housing simulations have addressed this issue and in turn have become more physically realistic.

  3. Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Richard L.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.L.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.; McNamee, Peter J.

    1983-01-01

    The model conceptualized at the first workshop simulates the effect of corn agrecosystem decisions on crop production, economic returns, and environmental indicators. The model is composed of five interacting submodels: 1) a Production Strategies submodel which makes decisions concerning tillage, planting, fertilizer and pesticide applications, and harvest; 2) a Hydrology/Chemical Transport submodel which represents soil hydrology, erosion, and concentrations of fertilizers and pesticides in the soil, runoff, surface waters, and percolation; 3) a Vegetation submodel which simulates growth of agricultural crops (corns and soybeans) and weeds; 4) a Pests submodel which calculates pest population levels and resulting crop damage; and 5) an Environmental Effects submodel which calculates indicators of potential fish kills, human health effects, and wildlife habitat. The most persistent data gaps encountered in quantifying the model were coefficients to relate environmental consequences to alternative pest management strategies. While the model developed in the project is not yet accurate enough to be used for real-world decisions about the use of pesticides on corn, it does contain the basic structure upon which such a model could be built. More importantly at this stage of development, the project has shown that very complex systems can be modeled in short periods of time and that the process of building such models increases understanding among disciplinary specialists and between diverse institutional interests. This process can be useful to EPA as the agency cooperates with other institutions to meet its responsibilities in less costly ways. Activities at the second 2 1/2-day workshop included a review of the model, incorporation of necessary corrections, simulation of policy scenarios, and examination of techniques to address remaining institutional conflicts. Participants were divided into three groups representing environmental, production or industry, and regulatory interests. Each group developed scenarios that would be most appealing to their particular interest and the scenarios were simulated by the agroecosystem computer model. Negotiators from each of the interest groups decided whether a hypothetical herbicide should be relabeled and if certain restrictions should be imposed on its use. Other participants functioned as experts and consultants on caucus teams. A solution to the hypothetical problem was successfully negotiated. Workshop participants and project staff agreed that the model and processes developed during the project should be used in training students, extension specialists, farmers, researchers, and chemical producers in collaborative problem solving methods. More productive research can be planned, and more realistic models of complex systems can be built in this way. More importantly, greater trust of decisionmakers in computer models, better understanding by technical experts about disciplines other than their own, and improved cooperation between institutional interests can be achieved. This trust, understanding, and cooperation are critical ingredients in solving problems that are too complex to be resolved by independent disciplinary activity and unilateral decision authority.

  4. Reaction norm model with unknown environmental covariate to analyze heterosis by environment interaction.

    PubMed

    Su, G; Madsen, P; Lund, M S

    2009-05-01

    Crossbreeding is currently increasing in dairy cattle production. Several studies have shown an environment-dependent heterosis [i.e., an interaction between heterosis and environment (H x E)]. An H x E interaction is usually estimated from a few discrete environment levels. The present study proposes a reaction norm model to describe H x E interaction, which can deal with a large number of environment levels using few parameters. In the proposed model, total heterosis consists of an environment-independent part, which is described as a function of heterozygosity, and an environment-dependent part, which is described as a function of heterozygosity and environmental value (e.g., herd-year effect). A Bayesian approach is developed to estimate the environmental covariates, the regression coefficients of the reaction norm, and other parameters of the model simultaneously in both linear and nonlinear reaction norms. In the nonlinear reaction norm model, the H x E is approximated using linear splines. The approach was tested using simulated data, which were generated using an animal model with a reaction norm for heterosis. The simulation study includes 4 scenarios (the combinations of moderate vs. low heritability and moderate vs. low herd-year variation) of H x E interaction in a nonlinear form. In all scenarios, the proposed model predicted total heterosis very well. The correlation between true heterosis and predicted heterosis was 0.98 in the scenarios with low herd-year variation and 0.99 in the scenarios with moderate herd-year variation. This suggests that the proposed model and method could be a good approach to analyze H x E interactions and predict breeding values in situations in which heterosis changes gradually and continuously over an environmental gradient. On the other hand, it was found that a model ignoring H x E interaction did not significantly harm the prediction of breeding value under the simulated scenarios in which the variance for environment-dependent heterosis effects was small (as it generally is), and sires were randomly used over production environments.

  5. Aquatic Contaminant and Mercury Simulation Modules Developed for Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-07-01

    through the food chain. Human health may also be affected by ingesting contaminated water or fish. As a result, the criteria for protecting human...ER D C/ EL T R- 16 -8 Environmental Quality Technology Research Program Aquatic Contaminant and Mercury Simulation Modules Developed...Quality Technology Research Program ERDC/EL TR-16-8 July 2016 Aquatic Contaminant and Mercury Simulation Modules Developed for Hydrologic and

  6. 76 FR 63613 - Environmental Management Site-Specific Advisory Board, Hanford

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-13

    ... membership reappointment process. DOE Presentation: Tank Vapor Monitoring. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Presentation: Advanced Simulation Capability for EM/Groundwater Modeling. Board Business: [[Page 63614

  7. The Be-WetSpa-Pest modeling approach to simulate human and environmental exposure from pesticide application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Binder, Claudia; Garcia-Santos, Glenda; Andreoli, Romano; Diaz, Jaime; Feola, Giuseppe; Wittensoeldner, Moritz; Yang, Jing

    2016-04-01

    This study presents an integrative and spatially explicit modeling approach for analyzing human and environmental exposure from pesticide application of smallholders in the potato producing Andean region in Colombia. The modeling approach fulfills the following criteria: (i) it includes environmental and human compartments; (ii) it contains a behavioral decision-making model for estimating the effect of policies on pesticide flows to humans and the environment; (iii) it is spatially explicit; and (iv) it is modular and easily expandable to include additional modules, crops or technologies. The model was calibrated and validated for the Vereda La Hoya and was used to explore the effect of different policy measures in the region. The model has moderate data requirements and can be adapted relatively easy to other regions in developing countries with similar conditions.

  8. A 3-D Approach for Teaching and Learning about Surface Water Systems through Computational Thinking, Data Visualization and Physical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caplan, B.; Morrison, A.; Moore, J. C.; Berkowitz, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding water is central to understanding environmental challenges. Scientists use `big data' and computational models to develop knowledge about the structure and function of complex systems, and to make predictions about changes in climate, weather, hydrology, and ecology. Large environmental systems-related data sets and simulation models are difficult for high school teachers and students to access and make sense of. Comp Hydro, a collaboration across four states and multiple school districts, integrates computational thinking and data-related science practices into water systems instruction to enhance development of scientific model-based reasoning, through curriculum, assessment and teacher professional development. Comp Hydro addresses the need for 1) teaching materials for using data and physical models of hydrological phenomena, 2) building teachers' and students' comfort or familiarity with data analysis and modeling, and 3) infusing the computational knowledge and practices necessary to model and visualize hydrologic processes into instruction. Comp Hydro teams in Baltimore, MD and Fort Collins, CO are integrating teaching about surface water systems into high school courses focusing on flooding (MD) and surface water reservoirs (CO). This interactive session will highlight the successes and challenges of our physical and simulation models in helping teachers and students develop proficiency with computational thinking about surface water. We also will share insights from comparing teacher-led vs. project-led development of curriculum and our simulations.

  9. The Environmental Impact of a Wave Dragon Array Operating in the Black Sea

    PubMed Central

    Rusu, Eugen

    2013-01-01

    The present work describes a study related to the influence on the shoreline dynamics of a wave farm consisting of Wave Dragon devices operating in the western side of the Black Sea. Based on historical data analysis of the wave climate, the most relevant environmental conditions that could occur were defined, and for these cases, simulations with SWAN spectral phase averaged wave model were performed. Two situations were considered for the most representative patterns: model simulations without any wave energy converter and simulations considering a wave farm consisting of six Wave Dragon devices. Comparisons of the wave model outputs have been carried out in both geographical and spectral spaces. The results show that although a significant influence appears near the wave farm, this gradually decreases to the coast line level. In order to evaluate the influence of the wave farm on the longshore currents, a nearshore circulation modeling system was used. In relative terms, the longshore current velocities appear to be more sensitive to the presence of the wave farm than the significant wave height. Finally, the possible impact on the marine flora and fauna specific to the target area was also considered and discussed. PMID:23844401

  10. The environmental impact of a Wave Dragon array operating in the Black Sea.

    PubMed

    Diaconu, Sorin; Rusu, Eugen

    2013-01-01

    The present work describes a study related to the influence on the shoreline dynamics of a wave farm consisting of Wave Dragon devices operating in the western side of the Black Sea. Based on historical data analysis of the wave climate, the most relevant environmental conditions that could occur were defined, and for these cases, simulations with SWAN spectral phase averaged wave model were performed. Two situations were considered for the most representative patterns: model simulations without any wave energy converter and simulations considering a wave farm consisting of six Wave Dragon devices. Comparisons of the wave model outputs have been carried out in both geographical and spectral spaces. The results show that although a significant influence appears near the wave farm, this gradually decreases to the coast line level. In order to evaluate the influence of the wave farm on the longshore currents, a nearshore circulation modeling system was used. In relative terms, the longshore current velocities appear to be more sensitive to the presence of the wave farm than the significant wave height. Finally, the possible impact on the marine flora and fauna specific to the target area was also considered and discussed.

  11. Effects of data structure on the estimation of covariance functions to describe genotype by environment interactions in a reaction norm model

    PubMed Central

    Calus, Mario PL; Bijma, Piter; Veerkamp, Roel F

    2004-01-01

    Covariance functions have been proposed to predict breeding values and genetic (co)variances as a function of phenotypic within herd-year averages (environmental parameters) to include genotype by environment interaction. The objective of this paper was to investigate the influence of definition of environmental parameters and non-random use of sires on expected breeding values and estimated genetic variances across environments. Breeding values were simulated as a linear function of simulated herd effects. The definition of environmental parameters hardly influenced the results. In situations with random use of sires, estimated genetic correlations between the trait expressed in different environments were 0.93, 0.93 and 0.97 while simulated at 0.89 and estimated genetic variances deviated up to 30% from the simulated values. Non random use of sires, poor genetic connectedness and small herd size had a large impact on the estimated covariance functions, expected breeding values and calculated environmental parameters. Estimated genetic correlations between a trait expressed in different environments were biased upwards and breeding values were more biased when genetic connectedness became poorer and herd composition more diverse. The best possible solution at this stage is to use environmental parameters combining large numbers of animals per herd, while losing some information on genotype by environment interaction in the data. PMID:15339629

  12. The Impacts of Various Environments Factors and Adaptive Management Strategies on Food Crops in the 21st Century Based on a Land Surface Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A. K.; Lin, T. S.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental factors - characterized by increasing levels of CO2, and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns - present potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of environmental factors' effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected trends of these factors and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to adaptive management practices (e.g. change in planting time, irrigation and N fertilization etc.) and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate the response of crop production to changes in environmental factors and management strategies. In this study we apply a process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of various environmental factors and management strategies on the production of row crops (corn, soybean and wheat) at regional and global scales. Results are compared to corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005), and projected atmospheric forcing data under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 (2006-2100) from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different climate change projections on potential productivity of food crops at a global scale. For each set of atmospheric forcing data, production of each crop is simulated with and without inclusion of adaptive management practices (e.g. application of irrigation, N fertilization, change in planting time and crop cultivars etc.) to assess the effect of adaptation on projected crop production over the 21st century. In detail, three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do differences in model mechanisms in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices (irrigation and N fertilizer) over the 21st century. The major outcomes of this study will help to understand the uncertainties in potential productivity of food crops under different environmental conditions and management practices.

  13. The Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory for Embedded Sensing and Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duffy, C.; Davis, K.; Kane, T.; Boyer, E.

    2009-04-01

    The future of environmental observing systems will utilize embedded sensor networks with continuous real-time measurement of hydrologic, atmospheric, biogeochemical, and ecological variables across diverse terrestrial environments. Embedded environmental sensors, benefitting from advances in information sciences, networking technology, materials science, computing capacity, and data synthesis methods, are undergoing revolutionary change. It is now possible to field spatially-distributed, multi-node sensor networks that provide density and spatial coverage previously accessible only via numerical simulation. At the same time, computational tools are advancing rapidly to the point where it is now possible to simulate the physical processes controlling individual parcels of water and solutes through the complete terrestrial water cycle. Our goal for the Penn State Critical Zone Observatory is to apply environmental sensor arrays, integrated hydrologic models deployed and coordinated at a testbed within the Penn State Experimental Forest. The NSF-funded CZO is designed to observe the detailed space and time complexities of the water and energy cycle for a watershed and ultimately the river basin for all physical states and fluxes (groundwater, soil moisture, temperature, streamflow, latent heat, snowmelt, chemistry, isotopes etc.). Presently fully-coupled physical models are being developed that link the atmosphere-land-vegetation-subsurface system into a fully-coupled distributed system. During the last 5 years the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Modeling System has been under development as an open-source community modeling project funded by NSF EAR/GEO and NSF CBET/ENG. PIHM represents a strategy for the formulation and solution of fully-coupled process equations at the watershed and river basin scales, and includes a tightly coupled GIS tool for data handling, domain decomposition, optimal unstructured grid generation, and model parameterization. (PIHM; http://sourceforge.net/projects/pihmmodel/; http://sourceforge.net/projects/pihmgis/ ) The CZO sensor and simulation system is being developed to have the following elements: 1) extensive, spatially-distributed smart sensor networks to gather intensive soil, geologic, hydrologic, geochemical and isotopic data; 2) spatially-explicit multiphysics models/solutions of the land-subsurface-vegetation-atmosphere system; and 3) parallel/distributed, adaptive algorithms for rapidly simulating the states of the watershed at high resolution, and 4) signal processing tools for data mining and parameter estimation. The prototype proposed sensor array and simulation system proposed is demonstrated with preliminary results from our first year.

  14. Using a generalized additive model with autoregressive terms to study the effects of daily temperature on mortality.

    PubMed

    Yang, Lei; Qin, Guoyou; Zhao, Naiqing; Wang, Chunfang; Song, Guixiang

    2012-10-30

    Generalized Additive Model (GAM) provides a flexible and effective technique for modelling nonlinear time-series in studies of the health effects of environmental factors. However, GAM assumes that errors are mutually independent, while time series can be correlated in adjacent time points. Here, a GAM with Autoregressive terms (GAMAR) is introduced to fill this gap. Parameters in GAMAR are estimated by maximum partial likelihood using modified Newton's method, and the difference between GAM and GAMAR is demonstrated using two simulation studies and a real data example. GAMM is also compared to GAMAR in simulation study 1. In the simulation studies, the bias of the mean estimates from GAM and GAMAR are similar but GAMAR has better coverage and smaller relative error. While the results from GAMM are similar to GAMAR, the estimation procedure of GAMM is much slower than GAMAR. In the case study, the Pearson residuals from the GAM are correlated, while those from GAMAR are quite close to white noise. In addition, the estimates of the temperature effects are different between GAM and GAMAR. GAMAR incorporates both explanatory variables and AR terms so it can quantify the nonlinear impact of environmental factors on health outcome as well as the serial correlation between the observations. It can be a useful tool in environmental epidemiological studies.

  15. Using a generalized additive model with autoregressive terms to study the effects of daily temperature on mortality

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Generalized Additive Model (GAM) provides a flexible and effective technique for modelling nonlinear time-series in studies of the health effects of environmental factors. However, GAM assumes that errors are mutually independent, while time series can be correlated in adjacent time points. Here, a GAM with Autoregressive terms (GAMAR) is introduced to fill this gap. Methods Parameters in GAMAR are estimated by maximum partial likelihood using modified Newton’s method, and the difference between GAM and GAMAR is demonstrated using two simulation studies and a real data example. GAMM is also compared to GAMAR in simulation study 1. Results In the simulation studies, the bias of the mean estimates from GAM and GAMAR are similar but GAMAR has better coverage and smaller relative error. While the results from GAMM are similar to GAMAR, the estimation procedure of GAMM is much slower than GAMAR. In the case study, the Pearson residuals from the GAM are correlated, while those from GAMAR are quite close to white noise. In addition, the estimates of the temperature effects are different between GAM and GAMAR. Conclusions GAMAR incorporates both explanatory variables and AR terms so it can quantify the nonlinear impact of environmental factors on health outcome as well as the serial correlation between the observations. It can be a useful tool in environmental epidemiological studies. PMID:23110601

  16. Modelling terrestrial nitrous oxide emissions and implications for climate feedback.

    PubMed

    Xu-Ri; Prentice, I Colin; Spahni, Renato; Niu, Hai Shan

    2012-10-01

    Ecosystem nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic nitrogen (N) enhancements. Here, we aimed to quantify the responses of natural ecosystem N2O emissions to multiple environmental drivers using a process-based global vegetation model (DyN-LPJ). We checked that modelled annual N2O emissions from nonagricultural ecosystems could reproduce field measurements worldwide, and experimentally observed responses to step changes in environmental factors. We then simulated global N2O emissions throughout the 20th century and analysed the effects of environmental changes. The model reproduced well the global pattern of N2O emissions and the observed responses of N cycle components to changes in environmental factors. Simulated 20th century global decadal-average soil emissions were c. 8.2-9.5 Tg N yr(-1) (or 8.3-10.3 Tg N yr(-1) with N deposition). Warming and N deposition contributed 0.85±0.41 and 0.80±0.14 Tg N yr(-1), respectively, to an overall upward trend. Rising CO2 also contributed, in part, through a positive interaction with warming. The modelled temperature dependence of N2O emission (c. 1 Tg N yr(-1) K(-1)) implies a positive climate feedback which, over the lifetime of N2O (114 yr), could become as important as the climate-carbon cycle feedback caused by soil CO2 release. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

  17. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Patriarca, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.patriarca@uniroma1.it; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order tomore » define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.« less

  18. MODELING THE INTERACTION OF AGROCHEMICALS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL SURFACES: PESTICIDES ON RUTILE AND ORGANO-RUTILE SURFACES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Non-bonded interactions between model pesticides and organo-mineral surfaces have been studied using molecular mechanical conformational calculations and molecular dynamics simulations. The minimum energy conformations and relative binding energies for the interaction of atrazine...

  19. Water Energy Simulation Toolset

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nguyen, Thuy; Jeffers, Robert

    The Water-Energy Simulation Toolset (WEST) is an interactive simulation model that helps visualize impacts of different stakeholders on water quantity and quality of a watershed. The case study is applied for the Snake River Basin with the fictional name Cutthroat River Basin. There are four groups of stakeholders of interest: hydropower, agriculture, flood control, and environmental protection. Currently, the quality component depicts nitrogen-nitrate contaminant. Users can easily interact with the model by changing certain inputs (climate change, fertilizer inputs, etc.) to observe the change over the entire system. Users can also change certain parameters to test their management policy.

  20. DigR: a generic model and its open source simulation software to mimic three-dimensional root-system architecture diversity.

    PubMed

    Barczi, Jean-François; Rey, Hervé; Griffon, Sébastien; Jourdan, Christophe

    2018-04-18

    Many studies exist in the literature dealing with mathematical representations of root systems, categorized, for example, as pure structure description, partial derivative equations or functional-structural plant models. However, in these studies, root architecture modelling has seldom been carried out at the organ level with the inclusion of environmental influences that can be integrated into a whole plant characterization. We have conducted a multidisciplinary study on root systems including field observations, architectural analysis, and formal and mathematical modelling. This integrative and coherent approach leads to a generic model (DigR) and its software simulator. Architecture analysis applied to root systems helps at root type classification and architectural unit design for each species. Roots belonging to a particular type share dynamic and morphological characteristics which consist of topological and geometric features. The DigR simulator is integrated into the Xplo environment, with a user interface to input parameter values and make output ready for dynamic 3-D visualization, statistical analysis and saving to standard formats. DigR is simulated in a quasi-parallel computing algorithm and may be used either as a standalone tool or integrated into other simulation platforms. The software is open-source and free to download at http://amapstudio.cirad.fr/soft/xplo/download. DigR is based on three key points: (1) a root-system architectural analysis, (2) root type classification and modelling and (3) a restricted set of 23 root type parameters with flexible values indexed in terms of root position. Genericity and botanical accuracy of the model is demonstrated for growth, branching, mortality and reiteration processes, and for different root architectures. Plugin examples demonstrate the model's versatility at simulating plastic responses to environmental constraints. Outputs of the model include diverse root system structures such as tap-root, fasciculate, tuberous, nodulated and clustered root systems. DigR is based on plant architecture analysis which leads to specific root type classification and organization that are directly linked to field measurements. The open source simulator of the model has been included within a friendly user environment. DigR accuracy and versatility are demonstrated for growth simulations of complex root systems for both annual and perennial plants.

  1. Study report on interfacing major physiological subsystem models: An approach for developing a whole-body algorithm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fitzjerrell, D. G.; Grounds, D. J.; Leonard, J. I.

    1975-01-01

    Using a whole body algorithm simulation model, a wide variety and large number of stresses as well as different stress levels were simulated including environmental disturbances, metabolic changes, and special experimental situations. Simulation of short term stresses resulted in simultaneous and integrated responses from the cardiovascular, respiratory, and thermoregulatory subsystems and the accuracy of a large number of responding variables was verified. The capability of simulating significantly longer responses was demonstrated by validating a four week bed rest study. In this case, the long term subsystem model was found to reproduce many experimentally observed changes in circulatory dynamics, body fluid-electrolyte regulation, and renal function. The value of systems analysis and the selected design approach for developing a whole body algorithm was demonstrated.

  2. The Space Environmental Impact System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kihn, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    The Space Environmental Impact System (SEIS) is an operational tool for incorporating environmental data sets into DoD Modeling and Simulation (M&S) which allows for enhanced decision making regarding acquisitions, testing, operations and planning. The SEIS system creates, from the environmental archives and developed rule-base, a tool for describing the effects of the space environment on particular military systems, both historically and in real-time. The system uses data available over the web, and in particular data provided by NASA’s virtual observatory network, as well as modeled data generated specifically for this purpose. The rule base system developed to support SEIS is an open XML based model which can be extended to events from any environmental domain. This presentation will show how the SEIS tool allows users to easily and accurately evaluate the effect of space weather in terms that are meaningful to them as well as discuss the relevant standards used in its construction and go over lessons learned from fielding an operational environmental decision tool.

  3. Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew

    2016-08-01

    Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide-ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO2 and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Retrieval of pine forest biomass using JPL AIRSAR data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beaudoin, A.; Letoan, T.; Zagolski, F.; Hsu, C. C.; Han, H. C.; Kong, J. A.

    1992-01-01

    The analysis of Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data over the Landes forest in South-West France revealed strong correlation between L- and especially P-band sigma degrees and the pine forest biomass. To explain the physical link of radar backscatter to biomass, a polarimetric backscattering model was developed and validated. Then the model was used in a simulation study to predict sigma degree sensitivity to undesired canopy and environmental parameters. Main results concerning the data analysis, modeling, and simulation at P-band are reported.

  5. Model description document for a computer program for the emulation/simulation of a space station environmental control and life support system (ESCM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yanosy, James L.

    1988-01-01

    Emulation/Simulation Computer Model (ESCM) computes the transient performance of a Space Station air revitalization subsystem with carbon dioxide removal provided by a solid amine water desorbed subsystem called SAWD. This manual describes the mathematical modeling and equations used in the ESCM. For the system as a whole and for each individual component, the fundamental physical and chemical laws which govern their operations are presented. Assumptions are stated, and when necessary, data is presented to support empirically developed relationships.

  6. A Coupled Simulation Architecture for Agent-Based/Geohydrological Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaxa-Rozen, M.

    2016-12-01

    The quantitative modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interplay between social and environmental processes, and their impact on emergent system dynamics. However, such models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both of the underlying subsystems. For instance, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater management studies can be made more useful by directly accounting for the hydrological processes which drive environmental outcomes. Conversely, conventional environmental models can benefit from an agent-based depiction of the feedbacks and heuristics which influence the decisions of groundwater users. From this perspective, this work describes a Python-based software architecture which couples the popular NetLogo agent-based platform with the MODFLOW/SEAWAT geohydrological modelling environment. This approach enables users to implement agent-based models in NetLogo's user-friendly platform, while benefiting from the full capabilities of MODFLOW/SEAWAT packages or reusing existing geohydrological models. The software architecture is based on the pyNetLogo connector, which provides an interface between the NetLogo agent-based modelling software and the Python programming language. This functionality is then extended and combined with Python's object-oriented features, to design a simulation architecture which couples NetLogo with MODFLOW/SEAWAT through the FloPy library (Bakker et al., 2016). The Python programming language also provides access to a range of external packages which can be used for testing and analysing the coupled models, which is illustrated for an application of Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES).

  7. Multi-scale evaluation of the environmental controls on burn probability in a southern Sierra Nevada landscape

    Treesearch

    Sean A. Parks; Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller

    2011-01-01

    We examined the scale-dependent relationship between spatial fire likelihood or burn probability (BP) and some key environmental controls in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Continuous BP estimates were generated using a fire simulation model. The correspondence between BP (dependent variable) and elevation, ignition density, fuels and aspect was evaluated...

  8. Utility of an emulation and simulation computer model for air revitalization system hardware design, development, and test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yanosy, J. L.; Rowell, L. F.

    1985-01-01

    Efforts to make increasingly use of suitable computer programs in the design of hardware have the potential to reduce expenditures. In this context, NASA has evaluated the benefits provided by software tools through an application to the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) system. The present paper is concerned with the benefits obtained by an employment of simulation tools in the case of the Air Revitalization System (ARS) of a Space Station life support system. Attention is given to the ARS functions and components, a computer program overview, a SAND (solid amine water desorbed) bed model description, a model validation, and details regarding the simulation benefits.

  9. Ground-water models as a management tool in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hutchinson, C.B.

    1984-01-01

    Highly sophisticated computer models provide powerful tools for analyzing historic data and for simulating future water levels, water movement, and water chemistry under stressed conditions throughout the ground-water system in Florida. Models that simulate the movement of heat and subsidence of land in response to aquifer pumping also have potential for application to hydrologic problems in the State. Florida, with 20 ground-water modeling studies reported since 1972, has applied computer modeling techniques to a variety of water-resources problems. Models in Florida generally have been used to provide insight to problems of water supply, contamination, and impact on the environment. The model applications range from site-specific studies, such as estimating contamination by wastewater injection at St. Petersburg, to a regional model of the entire State that may be used to assess broad-scale environmental impact of water-resources development. Recently, groundwater models have been used as management tools by the State regulatory authority to permit or deny development of water resources. As modeling precision, knowledge, and confidence increase, the use of ground-water models will shift more and more toward regulation of development and enforcement of environmental laws. (USGS)

  10. Advanced ETC/LSS computerized analytical models, CO2 concentration. Volume 1: Summary document

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, B. N.; Loscutoff, A. V.

    1972-01-01

    Computer simulations have been prepared for the concepts of C02 concentration which have the potential for maintaining a C02 partial pressure of 3.0 mmHg, or less, in a spacecraft environment. The simulations were performed using the G-189A Generalized Environmental Control computer program. In preparing the simulations, new subroutines to model the principal functional components for each concept were prepared and integrated into the existing program. Sample problems were run to demonstrate the methods of simulation and performance characteristics of the individual concepts. Comparison runs for each concept can be made for parametric values of cabin pressure, crew size, cabin air dry and wet bulb temperatures, and mission duration.

  11. A radiative transfer model for remote sensing of laser induced fluorescence of phytoplankton in non-homogeneous turbid water

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Venable, D. D.

    1983-01-01

    A semi-analytic Monte Carlo simulation methodology (SALMON) was discussed. This simulation technique is particularly well suited for addressing fundamental radiative transfer problems in oceanographic LIDAR (optical radar), and also provides a framework for investigating the effects of environmental factors on LIDAR system performance. The simulation model was extended for airborne laser fluorosensors to allow for inhomogeneities in the vertical distribution of constituents in clear sea water. Results of the simulations for linearly varying step concentrations of chlorophyll are presented. The SALMON technique was also employed to determine how the LIDAR signals from an inhomogeneous media differ from those from homogeneous media.

  12. Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Pozzer, Andrea; Kunze, Markus; Kirner, Oliver; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Brinkop, Sabine; Cai, Duy S.; Dyroff, Christoph; Eckstein, Johannes; Frank, Franziska; Garny, Hella; Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Kerkweg, Astrid; Kern, Bastian; Matthes, Sigrun; Mertens, Mariano; Meul, Stefanie; Neumaier, Marco; Nützel, Matthias; Oberländer-Hayn, Sophie; Ruhnke, Roland; Runde, Theresa; Sander, Rolf; Scharffe, Dieter; Zahn, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations (1950-2011), hindcast simulations with specified dynamics (1979-2013), i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations (1950-2100). The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two different nudging set-ups, with and without interactive tropospheric aerosol, and with and without a coupled ocean model. Two different vertical resolutions have been applied. The on-line calculated sources and sinks of reactive species are quantified and a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective is provided as a quality check of the data. The focus is on the intercomparison of the different model set-ups. The simulation data will become publicly available via CCMI and the Climate and Environmental Retrieval and Archive (CERA) database of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). This manuscript is intended to serve as an extensive reference for further analyses of the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) simulations.

  13. A cellular automaton model of wildfire propagation and extinction

    Treesearch

    Keith C. Clarke; James A. Brass; Phillip J. Riggan

    1994-01-01

    We propose a new model to predict the spatial and temporal behavior of wildfires. Fire spread and intensity were simulated using a cellular automaton model. Monte Carlo techniques were used to provide fire risk probabilities for areas where fuel loadings and topography are known. The model assumes predetermined or measurable environmental variables such as wind...

  14. Advances in the spatially distributed ages-w model: parallel computation, java connection framework (JCF) integration, and streamflow/nitrogen dynamics assessment

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) is a modular, Java-based spatially distributed model which implements hydrologic and water quality (H/WQ) simulation components under the Java Connection Framework (JCF) and the Object Modeling System (OMS) environmental modeling framework. AgES-W is implicitly scala...

  15. The Spatially-Distributed Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Hydrologic/Water Quality (H/WQ) model for assessment of conservation effects

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) is a modular, Java-based spatially distributed model which implements hydrologic/water quality (H/WQ) simulation components under the Object Modeling System (OMS3) environmental modeling framework. AgES-W has recently been enhanced with the addition of nitrogen (N) a...

  16. An integrated modeling approach for estimating the water quality benefits of conservation practices at the river basin scale.

    PubMed

    Santhi, C; Kannan, N; White, M; Di Luzio, M; Arnold, J G; Wang, X; Williams, J R

    2014-01-01

    The USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices at regional and national scales. For this assessment, a sampling and modeling approach is used. This paper provides a technical overview of the modeling approach used in CEAP cropland assessment to estimate the off-site water quality benefits of conservation practices using the Ohio River Basin (ORB) as an example. The modeling approach uses a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX), and a watershed scale model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) and databases in the Hydrologic Unit Modeling for the United States system. Databases of land use, soils, land use management, topography, weather, point sources, and atmospheric depositions were developed to derive model inputs. APEX simulates the cultivated cropland, Conserve Reserve Program land, and the practices implemented on them, whereas SWAT simulates the noncultivated land (e.g., pasture, range, urban, and forest) and point sources. Simulation results from APEX are input into SWAT. SWAT routes all sources, including APEX's, to the basin outlet through each eight-digit watershed. Each basin is calibrated for stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loads at multiple gaging sites and turned in for simulating the effects of conservation practice scenarios on water quality. Results indicate that sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads delivered to the Mississippi River from ORB could be reduced by 16, 15, and 23%, respectively, due to current conservation practices. Modeling tools are useful to provide science-based information for assessing existing conservation programs, developing future programs, and developing insights on load reductions necessary for hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. Simulating Wake Vortex Detection with the Sensivu Doppler Wind Lidar Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ramsey, Dan; Nguyen, Chi

    2014-01-01

    In support of NASA's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies NRA research topic on Wake Vortex Hazard Investigation, Aerospace Innovations (AI) investigated a set of techniques for detecting wake vortex hazards from arbitrary viewing angles, including axial perspectives. This technical report describes an approach to this problem and presents results from its implementation in a virtual lidar simulator developed at AI. Threedimensional data volumes from NASA's Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) containing strong turbulent vortices were used as the atmospheric domain for these studies, in addition to an analytical vortex model in 3-D space. By incorporating a third-party radiative transfer code (BACKSCAT 4), user-defined aerosol layers can be incorporated into atmospheric models, simulating attenuation and backscatter in different environmental conditions and altitudes. A hazard detection algorithm is described that uses a twocomponent spectral model to identify vortex signatures observable from arbitrary angles.

  18. Groundwater flow pattern and related environmental phenomena in complex geologic setting based on integrated model construction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tóth, Ádám; Havril, Tímea; Simon, Szilvia; Galsa, Attila; Monteiro Santos, Fernando A.; Müller, Imre; Mádl-Szőnyi, Judit

    2016-08-01

    Groundwater flow, driven, controlled and determined by topography, geology and climate, is responsible for several natural surface manifestations and affected by anthropogenic processes. Therefore, flowing groundwater can be regarded as an environmental agent. Numerical simulation of groundwater flow could reveal the flow pattern and explain the observed features. In complex geologic framework, where the geologic-hydrogeologic knowledge is limited, the groundwater flow model could not be constructed based solely on borehole data, but geophysical information could aid the model building. The integrated model construction was presented via the case study of the Tihany Peninsula, Hungary, with the aims of understanding the background and occurrence of groundwater-related environmental phenomena, such as wetlands, surface water-groundwater interaction, slope instability, and revealing the potential effect of anthropogenic activity and climate change. The hydrogeologic model was prepared on the basis of the compiled archive geophysical database and the results of recently performed geophysical measurements complemented with geologic-hydrogeologic data. Derivation of different electrostratigraphic units, revealing fracturing and detecting tectonic elements was achieved by systematically combined electromagnetic geophysical methods. The deduced information can be used as model input for groundwater flow simulation concerning hydrostratigraphy, geometry and boundary conditions. The results of numerical modelling were interpreted on the basis of gravity-driven regional groundwater flow concept and validated by field mapping of groundwater-related phenomena. The 3D model clarified the hydraulic behaviour of the formations, revealed the subsurface hydraulic connection between groundwater and wetlands and displayed the groundwater discharge pattern, as well. The position of wetlands, their vegetation type, discharge features and induced landslides were explained as environmental imprints of groundwater. The highly vulnerable wetlands and groundwater-dependent ecosystems have to be in the focus of water management and natural conservation policy.

  19. The influence of environmental forcing on biodiversity and extinction in a resource competition model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vakulenko, Sergey A.; Sudakov, Ivan; Mander, Luke

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we study a model of many species that compete, directly or indirectly, for a pool of common resources under the influence of periodic, stochastic, and/or chaotic environmental forcing. Using numerical simulations, we find the number and sequence of species going extinct when the community is initially packed with a large number of species of random initial densities. Thereby, any species with a density below a given threshold is regarded to be extinct.

  20. The influence of environmental forcing on biodiversity and extinction in a resource competition model.

    PubMed

    Vakulenko, Sergey A; Sudakov, Ivan; Mander, Luke

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we study a model of many species that compete, directly or indirectly, for a pool of common resources under the influence of periodic, stochastic, and/or chaotic environmental forcing. Using numerical simulations, we find the number and sequence of species going extinct when the community is initially packed with a large number of species of random initial densities. Thereby, any species with a density below a given threshold is regarded to be extinct.

  1. Assessing the Influence of Human Activities on Global Water Resources Using an Advanced Land Surface Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pokhrel, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Koirala, S.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2010-12-01

    In order to examine the impact of human intervention on the global hydrological cycle, a Land Surface Model was enhanced with schemes to assess the anthropogenic disturbance on the natural water flow at the global scale. Four different schemes namely; reservoir operation, crop growth, environmental flow, and anthropogenic water withdrawal modules from a state-of-the-art global water resources assessment model called H08 were integrated into an offline version of LSM, Minimal Advance Treatment of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO). MATSIRO represents majority of the hydrological processes of water and energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere on a physical basis and is designed to be coupled with GCM. The integrated model presented here thus has the capability to simulate both natural and anthropogenic flows of water globally at a spatial resolution of 1°x1°, considering dam operation, domestic, industrial and agricultural water withdrawals and environmental flow requirements. The model can also be coupled with climate models to assess the impact of human activities on the climate system. A simple groundwater scheme was also incorporated and the model can be used to assess the change in water table due to groundwater pumping for irrigation. The model was validated by comparing simulated soil moisture, river discharge and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) with observations. The model performs well in simulating TWSA as compared to GRACE observation in different river basins ranging from very wet to very dry. Soil moisture cannot be validated globally because of the lack of validation datasets. For Illinois region, where long term soil moisture observations are available, the model captures the seasonal variation quite well. The simulated global potential irrigation demand is about 1100km3/year, which is within the range of previously published estimates based on various water balance models and LSMs. The model has an advanced option to limit water withdrawal from river channels based on water availability and environmental flow requirements. Results showed that about three-fourth of the irrigation demand can be met from surface-water (rivers, small and medium-sized reservoirs). Therefore, one-fourth of the demand must have been supplied by groundwater. Further analysis of modeled groundwater pumping for irrigation is needed to examine the extent of groundwater withdrawal and its impact on water table fluctuations.

  2. Enhancements to an Agriculture-land Modeling System - FEST-C and Its Applications

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) system was originally developed to simulate daily fertilizer application information using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model across any defined CMAQ conterminous United States (U.S.) CMAQ domain and gr...

  3. 0-6629 : Texas specific drive cycles and idle emissions rates for using with EPA's MOVES model, [project summary].

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-08-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys : newest emissions model, Motor Vehicle Emission : Simulator (MOVES), enables users to use local : drive schedules(representative vehicle speed : profiles) in order to perform an accurate analysis : of emi...

  4. Systematic Identification of Stakeholders for Engagement with Systems Modeling Efforts in the Snohomish Basin, Washington, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Even as stakeholder engagement in systems dynamic modeling efforts is increasingly promoted, the mechanisms for identifying which stakeholders should be included are rarely documented. Accordingly, for an Environmental Protection Agency’s Triple Value Simulation (3VS) mode...

  5. APEX sensitivity to atrazine dissipation rate on surface runoff loss within a coastal zone in Southeastern Puerto Rico

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Simulation models are increasingly used to predict effects of conservation practices on transport of pesticides to water bodies. We used two models - the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) and the Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM) to predict the movement of the herbicide, at...

  6. Workshop to transfer VELMA watershed model results to Washington state tribes and state agencies engaged in watershed restoration and salmon recovery planning

    EPA Science Inventory

    An EPA Western Ecology Division (WED) watershed modeling team has been working with the Snoqualmie Tribe Environmental and Natural Resources Department to develop VELMA watershed model simulations of the effects of historical and future restoration and land use practices on strea...

  7. Analysing initial attack on wildland fires using stochastic simulation.

    Treesearch

    Jeremy S. Fried; J. Keith Gilless; James Spero

    2006-01-01

    Stochastic simulation models of initial attack on wildland fire can be designed to reflect the complexity of the environmental, administrative, and institutional context in which wildland fire protection agencies operate, but such complexity may come at the cost of a considerable investment in data acquisition and management. This cost may be well justified when it...

  8. Simulation of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Removal in Ecological Ditch Based on EFDC Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, S. M.; Wang, X. L.; Zhou, Q. Y.; Han, N. N.

    2018-03-01

    Agricultural non-point source pollution threatens water quality and ecological system recently. To control it, the first and most important task is to control the migration and transformation of nitrogen and phosphorus in the agricultural ditches. An ecological ditch was designed, and according to the design a pilot device was built, the mechanism of N and P removal in ditches under the collaboration of aquatic organisms-hydraulic power was studied through the dynamic and static experiments, in order to find out the specific influences of different environmental factors such as influent concentration, influent flow and water level. The transport and diffusion of N and P in the ditch was simulated by a three dimensional water quality model EFDC, the simulation results and the experimental data were compared. The average relative errors of EFDC model simulated results were all less than 15%, which verified the reliability of the model.

  9. Use of High-Resolution Satellite Observations to Evaluate Cloud and Precipitation Statistics from Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Tao, W.; Hou, A. Y.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.

    2007-12-01

    The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for different environmental conditions, i.e., the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX), CRYSTAL-FACE, and KAWJEX are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and as well as cloud observations from the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. The model presents large discrepancies in rain spectrum and vertical hydrometer profiles. The discrepancy in the precipitation field is also consistent with the cloud and radiation observations. The study will focus on the effects of large scale forcing and microphysics to the simulated model- observation discrepancies.

  10. GO2OGS 1.0: a versatile workflow to integrate complex geological information with fault data into numerical simulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, T.; Naumov, D.; Sattler, S.; Kolditz, O.; Walther, M.

    2015-11-01

    We offer a versatile workflow to convert geological models built with the ParadigmTM GOCAD© (Geological Object Computer Aided Design) software into the open-source VTU (Visualization Toolkit unstructured grid) format for usage in numerical simulation models. Tackling relevant scientific questions or engineering tasks often involves multidisciplinary approaches. Conversion workflows are needed as a way of communication between the diverse tools of the various disciplines. Our approach offers an open-source, platform-independent, robust, and comprehensible method that is potentially useful for a multitude of environmental studies. With two application examples in the Thuringian Syncline, we show how a heterogeneous geological GOCAD model including multiple layers and faults can be used for numerical groundwater flow modeling, in our case employing the OpenGeoSys open-source numerical toolbox for groundwater flow simulations. The presented workflow offers the chance to incorporate increasingly detailed data, utilizing the growing availability of computational power to simulate numerical models.

  11. A Review of Surface Water Quality Models

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shibei; Jia, Peng; Qi, Changjun; Ding, Feng

    2013-01-01

    Surface water quality models can be useful tools to simulate and predict the levels, distributions, and risks of chemical pollutants in a given water body. The modeling results from these models under different pollution scenarios are very important components of environmental impact assessment and can provide a basis and technique support for environmental management agencies to make right decisions. Whether the model results are right or not can impact the reasonability and scientificity of the authorized construct projects and the availability of pollution control measures. We reviewed the development of surface water quality models at three stages and analyzed the suitability, precisions, and methods among different models. Standardization of water quality models can help environmental management agencies guarantee the consistency in application of water quality models for regulatory purposes. We concluded the status of standardization of these models in developed countries and put forward available measures for the standardization of these surface water quality models, especially in developing countries. PMID:23853533

  12. Performance Evaluation of the Gravity Probe B Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francis, Ronnie; Wells, Eugene M.

    1996-01-01

    This report documents the simulation of the Lockheed Martin designed Gravity Probe B (GPB) spacecraft developed tool by bd Systems Inc using the TREETOPS simulation. This study quantifies the effects of flexibility and liquid helium slosh on GPB spacecraft control performance. The TREETOPS simulation tool permits the simulation of flexible structures given that a flexible body model of the structure is available. For purposes of this study, a flexible model of the GPB spacecraft was obtained from Lockheed Martin. To model the liquid helium slosh effects, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results' were obtained, and used to develop a dynamic model of the slosh effects. The flexible body and slosh effects were incorporated separately into the TREETOPS simulation, which places the vehicle in a 650 km circular polar orbit and subjects the spacecraft to realistic environmental disturbances and sensor error quantities. In all of the analysis conducted in this study the spacecraft is pointed at an inertially fixed guide star (GS) and is rotating at a constant rate about this line of sight.

  13. Development of a framework for quantifying the environmental impacts of urban development and construction practices.

    PubMed

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Peng; Crittenden, John C; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit; Chen, Yongsheng; Fernando, Harindra; Sawhney, Anil; McCartney, Peter; Grimm, Nancy; Kahhat, Ramzy; Joshi, Himanshu; Konjevod, Goran; Choi, Yu-Jin; Fonseca, Ernesto; Allenby, Braden; Gerrity, Daniel; Torrens, Paul M

    2007-07-15

    To encourage sustainable development, engineers and scientists need to understand the interactions among social decision-making, development and redevelopment, land, energy and material use, and their environmental impacts. In this study, a framework that connects these interactions was proposed to guide more sustainable urban planning and construction practices. Focusing on the rapidly urbanizing setting of Phoenix, Arizona, complexity models and deterministic models were assembled as a metamodel, which is called Sustainable Futures 2100 and were used to predict land use and development, to quantify construction material demands, to analyze the life cycle environmental impacts, and to simulate future ground-level ozone formation.

  14. Development of Land Segmentation, Stream-Reach Network, and Watersheds in Support of Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) Modeling, Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and Adjacent Parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martucci, Sarah K.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Hopkins, Katherine J.

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, Maryland Department of the Environment, Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are collaborating on the Chesapeake Bay Regional Watershed Model, using Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN to simulate streamflow and concentrations and loads of nutrients and sediment to Chesapeake Bay. The model will be used to provide information for resource managers. In order to establish a framework for model simulation, digital spatial datasets were created defining the discretization of the model region (including the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as well as the adjacent parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia outside the watershed) into land segments, a stream-reach network, and associated watersheds. Land segmentation was based on county boundaries represented by a 1:100,000-scale digital dataset. Fifty of the 254 counties and incorporated cities in the model region were divided on the basis of physiography and topography, producing a total of 309 land segments. The stream-reach network for the Chesapeake Bay watershed part of the model region was based on the U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake Bay SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) model stream-reach network. Because that network was created only for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the rest of the model region uses a 1:500,000-scale stream-reach network. Streams with mean annual streamflow of less than 100 cubic feet per second were excluded based on attributes from the dataset. Additional changes were made to enhance the data and to allow for inclusion of stream reaches with monitoring data that were not part of the original network. Thirty-meter-resolution Digital Elevation Model data were used to delineate watersheds for each stream reach. State watershed boundaries replaced the Digital Elevation Model-derived watersheds where coincident. After a number of corrections, the watersheds were coded to indicate major and minor basin, mean annual streamflow, and each watershed's unique identifier as well as that of the downstream watershed. Land segments and watersheds were intersected to create land-watershed segments for the model.

  15. ORION Environmental Control and Life Support Systems Suit Loop and Pressure Control Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eckhardt, Brad; Conger, Bruce; Stambaugh, Imelda C.

    2015-01-01

    Under NASA's ORION Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) Project at Johnson Space Center's (JSC), the Crew and Thermal Systems Division has developed performance models of the air system using Thermal Desktop/FloCAD. The Thermal Desktop model includes an Air Revitalization System (ARS Loop), a Suit Loop, a Cabin Loop, and Pressure Control System (PCS) for supplying make-up gas (N2 and O2) to the Cabin and Suit Loop. The ARS and PCS are designed to maintain air quality at acceptable O2, CO2 and humidity levels as well as internal pressures in the vehicle Cabin and during suited operations. This effort required development of a suite of Thermal Desktop Orion ECLSS models to address the need for various simulation capabilities regarding ECLSS performance. An initial highly detailed model of the ARS Loop was developed in order to simulate rapid pressure transients (water hammer effects) within the ARS Loop caused by events such as cycling of the Pressurized Swing Adsorption (PSA) Beds and required high temporal resolution (small time steps) in the model during simulation. A second ECLSS model was developed to simulate events which occur over longer periods of time (over 30 minutes) where O2, CO2 and humidity levels, as well as internal pressures needed to be monitored in the cabin and for suited operations. Stand-alone models of the PCS and the Negative Pressure relief Valve (NPRV) were developed to study thermal effects within the PCS during emergency scenarios (Cabin Leak) and cabin pressurization during vehicle re-entry into Earth's atmosphere. Results from the Orion ECLSS models were used during Orion Delta-PDR (July, 2014) to address Key Design Requirements (KDR's) for Suit Loop operations for multiple mission scenarios.

  16. Multisite Evaluation of APEX for Water Quality: I. Best Professional Judgment Parameterization.

    PubMed

    Baffaut, Claire; Nelson, Nathan O; Lory, John A; Senaviratne, G M M M Anomaa; Bhandari, Ammar B; Udawatta, Ranjith P; Sweeney, Daniel W; Helmers, Matt J; Van Liew, Mike W; Mallarino, Antonio P; Wortmann, Charles S

    2017-11-01

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is capable of estimating edge-of-field water, nutrient, and sediment transport and is used to assess the environmental impacts of management practices. The current practice is to fully calibrate the model for each site simulation, a task that requires resources and data not always available. The objective of this study was to compare model performance for flow, sediment, and phosphorus transport under two parameterization schemes: a best professional judgment (BPJ) parameterization based on readily available data and a fully calibrated parameterization based on site-specific soil, weather, event flow, and water quality data. The analysis was conducted using 12 datasets at four locations representing poorly drained soils and row-crop production under different tillage systems. Model performance was based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the coefficient of determination () and the regression slope between simulated and measured annualized loads across all site years. Although the BPJ model performance for flow was acceptable (NSE = 0.7) at the annual time step, calibration improved it (NSE = 0.9). Acceptable simulation of sediment and total phosphorus transport (NSE = 0.5 and 0.9, respectively) was obtained only after full calibration at each site. Given the unacceptable performance of the BPJ approach, uncalibrated use of APEX for planning or management purposes may be misleading. Model calibration with water quality data prior to using APEX for simulating sediment and total phosphorus loss is essential. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. The Berkeley Environmental Simulation Laboratory: Its Use In Environmental Impact Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Appleyard, Donald; And Others

    An environmental simulation laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, is testing the adequacy of different techniques for simulating environmental experiences. Various levels of realism, with various costs, are available in different presentation modes. The simulations can aid in communication about and the resolution of environmental…

  18. Integration of simulations and visualizations into classroom contexts through role playing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moysey, S. M.

    2016-12-01

    While simulations create a novel way to engage students, the idea of numerical modeling may be overwhelming to a wide swath of students - particularly non-geoscience majors or those students early in their earth science education. Yet even for these students, simulations and visualizations remain a powerful way to explore concepts and take ownership over their learning. One approach to bring these tools into the classroom is to introduce them as a component of a larger role-playing activity. I present two specific examples of how I have done this within a general education course broadly focused on water resources sustainability. In the first example, we have created an online multi-player watershed management game where players make management decisions for their individual farms, which in turn set the parameters for a watershed-scale groundwater model that continuously runs in the background. Through the simulation students were able to influence the behavior of the environment and see feedbacks on their individual land within the game. Though the original intent was to focus student learning on the hydrologic aspects of the watershed behavior, I have found that the value of the simulation is actually in allowing students to become immersed in a way that enables deep conversations about topics ranging from environmental policy to social justice. The second example presents an overview of a role playing activity focused on a multi-party negotiation of water rights in the Klamath watershed. In this case each student takes on a different role in the negotiation (e.g., farmer, energy producer, government, environmental advocate, etc.) and is presented with a rich set of data tying environmental and economic factors to the operation of reservoirs. In this case the simulation model is very simple, i.e., a mass balance calculator that students use to predict the consequences of their management decisions. The simplicity of the simulator, however, allows for reinforcement of the fundamental concept of mass balance which is a key scientific theme throughout the course. It also allows students to focus on analysis of data that enables them to tie hydrologic behaviors to societal consequences that guide their decision making.

  19. A human life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model for chlorpyrifos: development and validation.

    PubMed

    Smith, Jordan Ned; Hinderliter, Paul M; Timchalk, Charles; Bartels, Michael J; Poet, Torka S

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity to some chemicals in animals and humans are known to vary with age. Age-related changes in sensitivity to chlorpyrifos have been reported in animal models. A life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed to predict disposition of chlorpyrifos and its metabolites, chlorpyrifos-oxon (the ultimate toxicant) and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), as well as B-esterase inhibition by chlorpyrifos-oxon in humans. In this model, previously measured age-dependent metabolism of chlorpyrifos and chlorpyrifos-oxon were integrated into age-related descriptions of human anatomy and physiology. The life-stage PBPK/PD model was calibrated and tested against controlled adult human exposure studies. Simulations suggest age-dependent pharmacokinetics and response may exist. At oral doses ⩾0.6mg/kg of chlorpyrifos (100- to 1000-fold higher than environmental exposure levels), 6months old children are predicted to have higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and higher levels of red blood cell cholinesterase inhibition compared to adults from equivalent doses. At lower doses more relevant to environmental exposures, simulations predict that adults will have slightly higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and greater cholinesterase inhibition. This model provides a computational framework for age-comparative simulations that can be utilized to predict chlorpyrifos disposition and biological response over various postnatal life stages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Enhancing metaproteomics-The value of models and defined environmental microbial systems

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Herbst, Florian-Alexander; Lünsmann, Vanessa; Kjeldal, Henrik

    2016-01-21

    Metaproteomics - the large-scale characterization of the entire protein complement of environmental microbiota at a given point in time - added unique features and possibilities to study environmental microbial communities and to unravel these “black boxes”. New technical challenges arose which were not an issue for classical proteome analytics before and choosing the appropriate model system applicable to the research question can be difficult. Here, we reviewed different model systems for metaproteome analysis. Following a short introduction to microbial communities and systems, we discussed the most used systems ranging from technical systems over rhizospheric models to systems for the medicalmore » field. This includes acid mine drainage, anaerobic digesters, activated sludge, planted fixed bed reactors, gastrointestinal simulators and in vivo models. Model systems are useful to evaluate the challenges encountered within (but not limited to) metaproteomics, including species complexity and coverage, biomass availability or reliable protein extraction. The implementation of model systems can be considered as a step forward to better understand microbial responses and ecological distribution of member organisms. In the future, novel improvements are necessary to fully engage complex environmental systems.« less

  1. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Xiong, Wei; Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, M.

    Crop models are increasingly used to assess impacts of climate change/variability and management practices on productivity and environmental performance of alternative cropping systems. Calibration is an important procedure to improve reliability of model simulations, especially for large area applications. However, global-scale crop model calibration has rarely been exercised due to limited data availability and expensive computing cost. Here we present a simple approach to calibrate Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model for a global implementation of rice. We identify four parameters (potential heat unit – PHU, planting density – PD, harvest index – HI, and biomass energy ratio – BER)more » and calibrate them regionally to capture the spatial pattern of reported rice yield in 2000. Model performance is assessed by comparing simulated outputs with independent FAO national data. The comparison demonstrates that the global calibration scheme performs satisfactorily in reproducing the spatial pattern of rice yield, particularly in main rice production areas. Spatial agreement increases substantially when more parameters are selected and calibrated, but with varying efficiencies. Among the parameters, PHU and HI exhibit the highest efficiencies in increasing the spatial agreement. Simulations with different calibration strategies generate a pronounced discrepancy of 5–35% in mean yields across latitude bands, and a small to moderate difference in estimated yield variability and yield changing trend for the period of 1981–2000. Present calibration has little effects in improving simulated yield variability and trends at both regional and global levels, suggesting further works are needed to reproduce temporal variability of reported yields. This study highlights the importance of crop models’ calibration, and presents the possibility of a transparent and consistent up scaling approach for global crop simulations given current availability of global databases of weather, soil, crop calendar, fertilizer and irrigation management information, and reported yield.« less

  2. The Shale Hills Sensorium for Embedded Sensors, Simulation, & Visualization: A Prototype for Land-Vegetation-Atmosphere Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duffy, C.

    2008-12-01

    The future of environmental observing systems will utilize embedded sensor networks with continuous real- time measurement of hydrologic, atmospheric, biogeochemical, and ecological variables across diverse terrestrial environments. Embedded environmental sensors, benefitting from advances in information sciences, networking technology, materials science, computing capacity, and data synthesis methods, are undergoing revolutionary change. It is now possible to field spatially-distributed, multi-node sensor networks that provide density and spatial coverage previously accessible only via numerical simulation. At the same time, computational tools are advancing rapidly to the point where it is now possible to simulate the physical processes controlling individual parcels of water and solutes through the complete terrestrial water cycle. Our goal for the Penn State Critical Zone Observatory is to apply environmental sensor arrays, integrated hydrologic models, and state-of-the-art visualization deployed and coordinated at a testbed within the Penn State Experimental Forest. The Shale Hills Hydro_Sensorium prototype proposed here is designed to observe land-atmosphere interactions in four-dimensional (space and time). The term Hydro_Sensorium implies the totality of physical sensors, models and visualization tools that allow us to perceive the detailed space and time complexities of the water and energy cycle for a watershed or river basin for all physical states and fluxes (groundwater, soil moisture, temperature, streamflow, latent heat, snowmelt, chemistry, isotopes etc.). This research will ultimately catalyze the study of complex interactions between the land surface, subsurface, biological and atmospheric systems over a broad range of scales. The sensor array would be real-time and fully controllable by remote users for "computational steering" and data fusion. Presently fully-coupled physical models are being developed that link the atmosphere-land-vegetation-subsurface system into a fully-coupled distributed system. During the last 5 years the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Modeling System has been under development as an open-source community modeling project funded by NSF EAR/GEO and NSF CBET/ENG. PIHM represents a strategy for the formulation and solution of fully-coupled process equations at the watershed and river basin scales, and includes a tightly coupled GIS tool for data handling, domain decomposition, optimal unstructured grid generation, and model parameterization. The sensor and simulation system has the following elements: 1) extensive, spatially-distributed, non- invasive, smart sensor networks to gather massive geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical data; 2) stochastic information fusion methods; 3) spatially-explicit multiphysics models/solutions of the land-vegetation- atmosphere system; and 4) asynchronous, parallel/distributed, adaptive algorithms for rapidly simulating the states of a basin at high resolution, 5) signal processing tools for data mining and parameter estimation, and 6) visualization tools. The prototype proposed sensor array and simulation system proposed here will offer a coherent new approach to environmental predictions with a fully integrated observing system design. We expect that the Shale Hills Hydro_Sensorium may provide the needed synthesis of information and conceptualization necessary to advance predictive understanding in complex hydrologic systems.

  3. Evaluation of transportation/air quality model improvements based on TOTEMS on-road driving style and tailpipe emissions data.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-06-01

    In June 2012, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the Operating Mode : Distribution Generator (OMDG) a tool for developing an operating mode distribution as an input : to the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator model (MOVES). The t...

  4. STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL QUALITY ASSURANCE REPORT: DYNAMIC WAVE FLOW ROUTING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a computer-based tool for simulating storm water runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. In 2002 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Water Supply and Water Resources Division partnered with the consulting firm CDM ...

  5. MOUSE (MODULAR ORIENTED UNCERTAINTY SYSTEM): A COMPUTERIZED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS SYSTEM (FOR MICRO- COMPUTERS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental engineering calculations involving uncertainties; either in the model itself or in the data, are far beyond the capabilities of conventional analysis for any but the simplest of models. There exist a number of general-purpose computer simulation languages, using Mon...

  6. Using WNTR to Model Water Distribution System Resilience

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR) is a new open source Python package developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Sandia National Laboratories to model and evaluate resilience of water distribution systems. WNTR can be used to simulate a wide range of di...

  7. Interactive Visualization of Large-Scale Hydrological Data using Emerging Technologies in Web Systems and Parallel Programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2013-12-01

    As geoscientists are confronted with increasingly massive datasets from environmental observations to simulations, one of the biggest challenges is having the right tools to gain scientific insight from the data and communicate the understanding to stakeholders. Recent developments in web technologies make it easy to manage, visualize and share large data sets with general public. Novel visualization techniques and dynamic user interfaces allow users to interact with data, and modify the parameters to create custom views of the data to gain insight from simulations and environmental observations. This requires developing new data models and intelligent knowledge discovery techniques to explore and extract information from complex computational simulations or large data repositories. Scientific visualization will be an increasingly important component to build comprehensive environmental information platforms. This presentation provides an overview of the trends and challenges in the field of scientific visualization, and demonstrates information visualization and communication tools developed within the light of these challenges.

  8. Modeling the TTL at Continental Scale for a Wet Season: An Evaluation of the BRAMS Mesoscale Model Using TRO-Pico Campaign, and Measurements From Airborne and Spaceborne Sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behera, Abhinna K.; Rivière, Emmanuel D.; Marécal, Virginie; Rysman, Jean-François; Chantal, Claud; Sèze, Geneviève; Amarouche, Nadir; Ghysels, Mélanie; Khaykin, Sergey M.; Pommereau, Jean-Pierre; Held, Gerhard; Burgalat, Jérémie; Durry, Georges

    2018-03-01

    In order to better understand the water vapor (WV) intrusion into the tropical stratosphere, a mesoscale simulation of the tropical tropopause layer using the BRAMS (Brazilian version of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)) model is evaluated for a wet season. This simulation with a horizontal grid point resolution of 20 km × 20 km cannot resolve the stratospheric overshooting convection (SOC). Its ability to reproduce other key parameters playing a role in the stratospheric WV abundance is investigated using the balloon-borne TRO-Pico campaign measurements, the upper-air soundings over Brazil, and the satellite observations by Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, Microwave Humidity Sounder, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12. The BRAMS exhibits a good ability in simulating temperature, cold-point, WV variability around the tropopause. However, the simulation is typically observed to be warmer by ˜2.0°C and wetter by ˜0.4 ppmv at the hygropause, which can be partly affiliated with the grid boundary nudging of the model by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational analyses. The modeled cloud tops show a good correlation (maximum cross-correlation of ˜0.7) with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12. Furthermore, the overshooting cells detected by Microwave Humidity Sounder are observed at the locations, where 75% of the modeled cloud tops are higher than 11 km. Finally, the modeled inertia-gravity wave periodicity and wavelength are comparable with those deduced from the radio sounding measurements during TRO-Pico campaign. The good behavior of BRAMS confirms the SOC contribution in the WV abundance, and variability is of lesser importance than the large-scale processes. This simulation can be used as a reference run for upscaling the impact of SOC at a continental scale for future studies.

  9. Evaluation of modeling for groundwater flow and tetrachloroethylene transport in the Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer at the Savage Municipal Well Superfund site, Milford, New Hampshire, 2011

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harte, Philip T.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services entered into a cooperative agreement to assist in the evaluation of remedy simulations of the MSGD aquifer that are being performed by various parties to track the remedial progress of the PCE plume. This report summarizes findings from this evaluation. Topics covered include description of groundwater flow and transport models used in the study of the Savage Superfund site (section 2), evaluation of models and their results (section 3), testing of several new simulations (section 4), an assessment of the representation of models to simulate field conditions (section 5), and an assessment of models as a tool in remedial operational decision making (section 6).

  10. Model-simulated and Satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) Comparisons Across Multiple Spatial Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iiames, J. S., Jr.; Cooter, E. J.

    2016-12-01

    Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter in assessing vegetation structure for characterizing forest canopies over large areas at broad spatial scales using satellite remote sensing data. However, satellite-derived LAI products can be limited by obstructed atmospheric conditions yielding sub-optimal values, or complete non-returns. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Exposure Methods and Measurements and Computational Exposure Divisions are investigating the viability of supplemental modelled LAI inputs into satellite-derived data streams to support various regional and local scale air quality models for retrospective and future climate assessments. In this present study, one-year (2002) of plot level stand characteristics at four study sites located in Virginia and North Carolina (USA) are used to calibrate species-specific plant parameters in a semi-empirical biogeochemical model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was designed primarily for managed agricultural field crop ecosystems, but also includes managed woody species that span both xeric and mesic sites (e.g., mesquite, pine, oak, etc.). LAI was simulated using EPIC at a 4 km2 and 12 km2 grid coincident with the regional Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) grid. LAI comparisons were made between model-simulated and MODIS-derived LAI. Field/satellite-upscaled LAI was also compared to the corresponding MODIS LAI value. Preliminary results show field/satellite-upscaled LAI (1 km2) was 1.5 to 3 times smaller than that with the corresponding 1 km2 MODIS LAI for all four sites across all dates, with the largest discrepancies occurring at leaf-out and leaf senescence periods. Simulated LAI/MODIS LAI comparison results will be presented at the conference. Disclaimer: This work is done in support of EPA's Sustainable Healthy Communities Research Program. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency funded and conducted the research described in this paper. Although this work was reviewed by the EPA and has been approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy. Mention of any trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. * Primary author and presenter (Iiames.john@epa.gov)

  11. Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

    2015-04-01

    The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model integration is that it allows the investigation of the effects of different water demand management strategies to an urban population's water demand behaviour and ultimately the effects of these policies to the volume of domestic water demand and the water resources system. The proposed modelling platform is optimised to simulate the effects of water policies during the Athens drought period of 1988-1994. The calibrated modelling platform is then applied to evaluate scenarios of water supply, water demand and water demand management strategies.

  12. Addressing the impact of environmental uncertainty in plankton model calibration with a dedicated software system: the Marine Model Optimization Testbed (MarMOT 1.1 alpha)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemmings, J. C. P.; Challenor, P. G.

    2012-04-01

    A wide variety of different plankton system models have been coupled with ocean circulation models, with the aim of understanding and predicting aspects of environmental change. However, an ability to make reliable inferences about real-world processes from the model behaviour demands a quantitative understanding of model error that remains elusive. Assessment of coupled model output is inhibited by relatively limited observing system coverage of biogeochemical components. Any direct assessment of the plankton model is further inhibited by uncertainty in the physical state. Furthermore, comparative evaluation of plankton models on the basis of their design is inhibited by the sensitivity of their dynamics to many adjustable parameters. Parameter uncertainty has been widely addressed by calibrating models at data-rich ocean sites. However, relatively little attention has been given to quantifying uncertainty in the physical fields required by the plankton models at these sites, and tendencies in the biogeochemical properties due to the effects of horizontal processes are often neglected. Here we use model twin experiments, in which synthetic data are assimilated to estimate a system's known "true" parameters, to investigate the impact of error in a plankton model's environmental input data. The experiments are supported by a new software tool, the Marine Model Optimization Testbed, designed for rigorous analysis of plankton models in a multi-site 1-D framework. Simulated errors are derived from statistical characterizations of the mixed layer depth, the horizontal flux divergence tendencies of the biogeochemical tracers and the initial state. Plausible patterns of uncertainty in these data are shown to produce strong temporal and spatial variability in the expected simulation error variance over an annual cycle, indicating variation in the significance attributable to individual model-data differences. An inverse scheme using ensemble-based estimates of the simulation error variance to allow for this environment error performs well compared with weighting schemes used in previous calibration studies, giving improved estimates of the known parameters. The efficacy of the new scheme in real-world applications will depend on the quality of statistical characterizations of the input data. Practical approaches towards developing reliable characterizations are discussed.

  13. Interactive Higher Education Instruction to Advance STEM Instruction in the Environmental Sciences - the Brownfield Action Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liddicoat, J. C.; Bower, P.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that presently there are over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly in the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part or entirely online for more than 15 years in environmental science, engineering, and hydrology courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011, 2014; Liddicoat and Bower, 2015). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies with a peer chosen at random to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants and professionals, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue, and to acquire STEM knowledge that can be used constructively when confronted with such an issue.

  14. NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation Hybrid Wing Body Flow-Through Nacelle Wind Tunnel CFD

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuh, Michael J.; Garcia, Jospeh A.; Carter, Melissa B.; Deere, Karen A.; Stremel, Paul M.; Tompkins, Daniel M.

    2016-01-01

    Wind tunnel tests of a 5.75% scale model of the Boeing Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) configuration were conducted in the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) 14'x22' and NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) 40'x80' low speed wind tunnels as part of the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the flow-through nacelle (FTN) configuration of this model were performed before and after the testing. This paper presents a summary of the experimental and CFD results for the model in the cruise and landing configurations.

  15. NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation Hybrid Wing Body Flow-Through Nacelle Wind Tunnel CFD

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuh, Michael J.; Garcia, Joseph A.; Carter, Melissa B.; Deere, Karen A.; Tompkins, Daniel M.; Stremel, Paul M.

    2016-01-01

    Wind tunnel tests of a 5.75 scale model of the Boeing Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) configuration were conducted in the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) 14x22 and NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) 40x80 low speed wind tunnels as part of the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the flow-through nacelle (FTN) configuration of this model were performed before and after the testing. This paper presents a summary of the experimental and CFD results for the model in the cruise and landing configurations.

  16. NOAA Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division support to the US Environmental Protection Agency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poole-Kober, Evelyn M.; Viebrock, Herbert J.

    1991-07-01

    During FY-1990, the Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division provided meteorological research and operational support to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Basic meteorological operational support consisted of applying dispersion models and conducting dispersion studies and model evaluations. The primary research effort was the development and evaluation of air quality simulation models using numerical and physical techniques supported by field studies. Modeling emphasis was on the dispersion of photochemical oxidants and particulate matter on urban and regional scales, dispersion in complex terrain, and the transport, transformation, and deposition of acidic materials. Highlights included expansion of the Regional Acid Deposition Model/Engineering Model family to consist of the Tagged Species Engineering Model, the Non-Depleting Model, and the Sulfate Tracking Model; completion of the Acid-MODES field study; completion of the RADM2.1 evaluation; completion of the atmospheric processes section of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program 1990 Integrated Assessment; conduct of the first field study to examine the transport and entrainment processes of convective clouds; development of a Regional Oxidant Model-Urban Airshed Model interface program; conduct of an international sodar intercomparison experiment; incorporation of building wake dispersion in numerical models; conduct of wind-tunnel simulations of stack-tip downwash; and initiation of the publication of SCRAM NEWS.

  17. Integrated detoxification methodology of hazardous phenolic wastewaters in environmentally based trickle-bed reactors: Experimental investigation and CFD simulation.

    PubMed

    Lopes, Rodrigo J G; Almeida, Teresa S A; Quinta-Ferreira, Rosa M

    2011-05-15

    Centralized environmental regulations require the use of efficient detoxification technologies for the secure disposal of hazardous wastewaters. Guided by federal directives, existing plants need reengineering activities and careful analysis to improve their overall effectiveness and to become environmentally friendly. Here, we illustrate the application of an integrated methodology which encompasses the experimental investigation of catalytic wet air oxidation and CFD simulation of trickle-bed reactors. As long as trickle-bed reactors are determined by the flow environment coupled with chemical kinetics, first, on the optimization of prominent numerical solution parameters, the CFD model was validated with experimental data taken from a trickle bed pilot plant specifically designed for the catalytic wet oxidation of phenolic wastewaters. Second, several experimental and computational runs were carried out under unsteady-state operation to evaluate the dynamic performance addressing the TOC concentration and temperature profiles. CFD computations of total organic carbon conversion were found to agree better with experimental data at lower temperatures. Finally, the comparison of test data with simulation results demonstrated that this integrated framework was able to describe the mineralization of organic matter in trickle beds and the validated consequence model can be exploited to promote cleaner remediation technologies of contaminated waters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

    2017-04-01

    Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The coupled models have been applied to simulate the spatial variation trends of ecological condition under ecological water supplement as an example to reflect the application effect in lake restoration and management. The simulation results indicate that the models can provide a useful tool for lake restoration and management. The simulated spatial variation trends can provide a foundation for establishing permissible ranges for a selected set of water quality indices for a series of management measures such as watershed pollution load control and ecological water transfer. Meanwhile, the coupled models can help us to understand processes taking place and the relations of interaction between components in the lake ecosystem and external conditions. Taken together, the proposed models we established show some promising applications as middle-scale or large-scale lake management tools for pollution load control and ecological water transfer. These tools quantify the implications of proposed future water management decisions.

  19. Generalized environmental control and life support system computer program (G189A) configuration control, phase 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcenulty, R. E.

    1977-01-01

    The G189A simulation of the Shuttle Orbiter ECLSS was upgraded. All simulation library versions and simulation models were converted from the EXEC2 to the EXEC8 computer system and a new program, G189PL, was added to the combination master program library. The program permits the post-plotting of up to 100 frames of plot data over any time interval of a G189 simulation run. The overlay structure of the G189A simulations were restructured for the purpose of conserving computer core requirements and minimizing run time requirements.

  20. Simulation of water-surface elevations for a hypothetical 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Berenbrock, C.; Kjelstrom, L.C.

    1997-10-01

    Delineation of areas at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory that would be inundated by a 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek is needed by the US Department of Energy to fulfill flood-plain regulatory requirements. Birch Creek flows southward about 40 miles through an alluvium-filled valley onto the northern part of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental laboratory site on the eastern Snake River Plain. The lower 10-mile reach of Birch Creek that ends in Birch Creek Playa near several Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory facilities is of particular concern. Twenty-six channel cross sections were surveyed to developmore » and apply a hydraulic model to simulate water-surface elevations for a hypothetical 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek. Model simulation of the 100-year peak flow (700 cubic feet per second) in reaches upstream from State Highway 22 indicated that flow was confined within channels even when all flow was routed to one channel. Where the highway crosses Birch Creek, about 315 cubic feet per second of water was estimated to move downstream--115 cubic feet per second through a culvert and 200 cubic feet per second over the highway. Simulated water-surface elevation at this crossing was 0.8 foot higher than the elevation of the highway. The remaining 385 cubic feet per second flowed southwestward in a trench along the north side of the highway. Flow also was simulated with the culvert removed. The exact location of flood boundaries on Birch Creek could not be determined because of the highly braided channel and the many anthropogenic features (such as the trench, highway, and diversion channels) in the study area that affect flood hydraulics and flow. Because flood boundaries could not be located exactly, only a generalized flood-prone map was developed.« less

  1. Hydro-environmental management of groundwater resources: A fuzzy-based multi-objective compromise approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Rakhshandehroo, Gholam Reza

    2017-08-01

    Sustainable management of water resources necessitates close attention to social, economic and environmental aspects such as water quality and quantity concerns and potential conflicts. This study presents a new fuzzy-based multi-objective compromise methodology to determine the socio-optimal and sustainable policies for hydro-environmental management of groundwater resources, which simultaneously considers the conflicts and negotiation of involved stakeholders, uncertainties in decision makers' preferences, existing uncertainties in the groundwater parameters and groundwater quality and quantity issues. The fuzzy multi-objective simulation-optimization model is developed based on qualitative and quantitative groundwater simulation model (MODFLOW and MT3D), multi-objective optimization model (NSGA-II), Monte Carlo analysis and Fuzzy Transformation Method (FTM). Best compromise solutions (best management policies) on trade-off curves are determined using four different Fuzzy Social Choice (FSC) methods. Finally, a unanimity fallback bargaining method is utilized to suggest the most preferred FSC method. Kavar-Maharloo aquifer system in Fars, Iran, as a typical multi-stakeholder multi-objective real-world problem is considered to verify the proposed methodology. Results showed an effective performance of the framework for determining the most sustainable allocation policy in groundwater resource management.

  2. Bayesian model-emulation of stochastic gravitational-wave spectra for probes of the final-parsec problem with pulsar-timing arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Stephen R.; Simon, Joseph; Sampson, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The final parsec of supermassive black-hole binary evolution is subject to the complex interplay of stellar loss-cone scattering, circumbinary disk accretion, and gravitational-wave emission, with binary eccentricity affected by all of these. The strain spectrum of gravitational-waves in the pulsar-timing band thus encodes rich information about the binary population's response to these various environmental mechanisms. Current spectral models have heretofore followed basic analytic prescriptions, and attempt to investigate these final-parsec mechanisms in an indirect fashion. Here we describe a new technique to directly probe the environmental properties of supermassive black-hole binaries through "Bayesian model-emulation". We perform black-hole binary population synthesis simulations at a restricted set of environmental parameter combinations, compute the strain spectra from these, then train a Gaussian process to learn the shape of the spectrum at any point in parameter space. We describe this technique, demonstrate its efficacy with a program of simulated datasets, then illustrate its power by directly constraining final-parsec physics in a Bayesian analysis of the NANOGrav 5-year dataset. The technique is fast, flexible, and robust.

  3. Bayesian model-emulation of stochastic gravitational-wave spectra for probes of the final-parsec problem with pulsar-timing arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Stephen; Simon, Joseph; Sampson, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The final parsec of supermassive black-hole binary evolution is subject to the complex interplay of stellar loss-cone scattering, circumbinary disk accretion, and gravitational-wave emission, with binary eccentricity affected by all of these. The strain spectrum of gravitational-waves in the pulsar-timing band thus encodes rich information about the binary population's response to these various environmental mechanisms. Current spectral models have heretofore followed basic analytic prescriptions, and attempt to investigate these final-parsec mechanisms in an indirect fashion. Here we describe a new technique to directly probe the environmental properties of supermassive black-hole binaries through ``Bayesian model-emulation''. We perform black-hole binary population synthesis simulations at a restricted set of environmental parameter combinations, compute the strain spectra from these, then train a Gaussian process to learn the shape of spectrum at any point in parameter space. We describe this technique, demonstrate its efficacy with a program of simulated datasets, then illustrate its power by directly constraining final-parsec physics in a Bayesian analysis of the NANOGrav 5-year dataset. The technique is fast, flexible, and robust.

  4. Simulation of gaseous pollutant dispersion around an isolated building using the k-ω SST (shear stress transport) turbulence model.

    PubMed

    Yu, Hesheng; Thé, Jesse

    2017-05-01

    The dispersion of gaseous pollutant around buildings is complex due to complex turbulence features such as flow detachment and zones of high shear. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are one of the most promising tools to describe the pollutant distribution in the near field of buildings. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models are the most commonly used CFD techniques to address turbulence transport of the pollutant. This research work studies the use of [Formula: see text] closure model for the gas dispersion around a building by fully resolving the viscous sublayer for the first time. The performance of standard [Formula: see text] model is also included for comparison, along with results of an extensively validated Gaussian dispersion model, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model). This study's CFD models apply the standard [Formula: see text] and the [Formula: see text] turbulence models to obtain wind flow field. A passive concentration transport equation is then calculated based on the resolved flow field to simulate the distribution of pollutant concentrations. The resultant simulation of both wind flow and concentration fields are validated rigorously by extensive data using multiple validation metrics. The wind flow field can be acceptably modeled by the [Formula: see text] model. However, the [Formula: see text] model fails to simulate the gas dispersion. The [Formula: see text] model outperforms [Formula: see text] in both flow and dispersion simulations, with higher hit rates for dimensionless velocity components and higher "factor of 2" of observations (FAC2) for normalized concentration. All these validation metrics of [Formula: see text] model pass the quality assurance criteria recommended by The Association of German Engineers (Verein Deutscher Ingenieure, VDI) guideline. Furthermore, these metrics are better than or the same as those in the literature. Comparison between the performances of [Formula: see text] and AERMOD shows that the CFD simulation is superior to Gaussian-type model for pollutant dispersion in the near wake of obstacles. AERMOD can perform as a screening tool for near-field gas dispersion due to its expeditious calculation and the ability to handle complicated cases. The utilization of [Formula: see text] to simulate gaseous pollutant dispersion around an isolated building is appropriate and is expected to be suitable for complex urban environment. Multiple validation metrics of [Formula: see text] turbulence model in CFD quantitatively indicated that this turbulence model was appropriate for the simulation of gas dispersion around buildings. CFD is, therefore, an attractive alternative to wind tunnel for modeling gas dispersion in urban environment due to its excellent performance, and lower cost.

  5. Simulation of Range Safety for the NASA Space Shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rabelo, Luis; Sepulveda, Jose; Compton, Jeppie; Turner, Robert

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a simulation environment that seamlessly combines a number of safety and environmental models for the launch phase of a NASA Space Shuttle mission. The components of this simulation environment represent the different systems that must interact in order to determine the Expectation of casualties (E(sub c)) resulting from the toxic effects of the gas dispersion that occurs after a disaster affecting a Space Shuttle within 120 seconds of lift-off. The utilization of the Space Shuttle reliability models, trajectory models, weather dissemination systems, population models, amount and type of toxicants, gas dispersion models, human response functions to toxicants, and a geographical information system are all integrated to create this environment. This simulation environment can help safety managers estimate the population at risk in order to plan evacuation, make sheltering decisions, determine the resources required to provide aid and comfort, and mitigate damages in case of a disaster. This simulation environment may also be modified and used for the landing phase of a space vehicle but will not be discussed in this paper.

  6. Modeling Energy Efficiency As A Green Logistics Component In Vehicle Assembly Line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oumer, Abduaziz; Mekbib Atnaw, Samson; Kie Cheng, Jack; Singh, Lakveer

    2016-11-01

    This paper uses System Dynamics (SD) simulation to investigate the concept green logistics in terms of energy efficiency in automotive industry. The car manufacturing industry is considered to be one of the highest energy consuming industries. An efficient decision making model is proposed that capture the impacts of strategic decisions on energy consumption and environmental sustainability. The sources of energy considered in this research are electricity and fuel; which are the two main types of energy sources used in a typical vehicle assembly plant. The model depicts the performance measurement for process- specific energy measures of painting, welding, and assembling processes. SD is the chosen simulation method and the main green logistics issues considered are Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission and energy utilization. The model will assist decision makers acquire an in-depth understanding of relationship between high level planning and low level operation activities on production, environmental impacts and costs associated. The results of the SD model signify the existence of positive trade-offs between green practices of energy efficiency and the reduction of CO2 emission.

  7. Detecting drawdowns masked by environmental stresses with water-level models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garcia, C.A.; Halford, K.J.; Fenelon, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Detecting and quantifying small drawdown at observation wells distant from the pumping well greatly expands the characterized aquifer volume. However, this detection is often obscured by water level fluctuations such as barometric and tidal effects. A reliable analytical approach for distinguishing drawdown from nonpumping water-level fluctuations is presented and tested here. Drawdown is distinguished by analytically simulating all pumping and nonpumping water-level stresses simultaneously during the period of record. Pumping signals are generated with Theis models, where the pumping schedule is translated into water-level change with the Theis solution. This approach closely matched drawdowns simulated with a complex three-dimensional, hypothetical model and reasonably estimated drawdowns from an aquifer test conducted in a complex hydrogeologic system. Pumping-induced changes generated with a numerical model and analytical Theis model agreed (RMS as low as 0.007 m) in cases where pumping signals traveled more than 1 km across confining units and fault structures. Maximum drawdowns of about 0.05 m were analytically estimated from field investigations where environmental fluctuations approached 0.2 m during the analysis period.

  8. Modeling evolution of spatially distributed bacterial communities: a simulation with the haploid evolutionary constructor

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Multiscale approaches for integrating submodels of various levels of biological organization into a single model became the major tool of systems biology. In this paper, we have constructed and simulated a set of multiscale models of spatially distributed microbial communities and study an influence of unevenly distributed environmental factors on the genetic diversity and evolution of the community members. Results Haploid Evolutionary Constructor software http://evol-constructor.bionet.nsc.ru/ was expanded by adding the tool for the spatial modeling of a microbial community (1D, 2D and 3D versions). A set of the models of spatially distributed communities was built to demonstrate that the spatial distribution of cells affects both intensity of selection and evolution rate. Conclusion In spatially heterogeneous communities, the change in the direction of the environmental flow might be reflected in local irregular population dynamics, while the genetic structure of populations (frequencies of the alleles) remains stable. Furthermore, in spatially heterogeneous communities, the chemotaxis might dramatically affect the evolution of community members. PMID:25708911

  9. IMACS 󈨟: Proceedings of the IMACS World Congress on Computation and Applied Mathematics (13th) Held in Dublin, Ireland on July 22-26, 1991. Volume 4. Modelling and Simulation for Electrical, Electronic and Semiconductor Devices, Computation for Management Systems, Applications of Modelling and Simulation, Environmental Systems Simulation, Software Forum, Poster Sessions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-07-01

    synchronous machine case study . IEEE T rons. on For the ease nd -nq -2, four time scales trust be used And the A.C, Vol. 36. nul 3, March 1989. damnper... studied . A spot welded(Csse 3) * ss s i* r 0. or a line welded( Case 4) reinforcement plate is attached on the colliding surface of box beams arnd their...phased armature, is given on Figure 1. analytical field calculation in the machine magnetic structure. Il - MAGNETIC STRUCTURE MODELLING: In the case

  10. Thermal-environmental testing of a 30-cm engineering model thruster

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mirtich, M. J.

    1976-01-01

    An experimental test program was carried out to document all 30-cm electron bombardment Hg ion bombardment thruster functions and characteristics over the thermal environment of several proposed missions. An engineering model thruster was placed in a thermal test facility equipped with -196 C walls and solar simulation. The thruster was cold soaked and exposed to simulated eclipses lasting in duration from 17 to 72 minutes. The thruster was operated at quarter, to full beam power in various thermal configurations which simulated multiple thruster operation, and was also exposed to 1 and 2 suns solar simulation. Thruster control characteristics and constraints; performance, including thrust magnitude and direction; and structural integrity were evaluated over the range of thermal environments tested.

  11. Environmental Influences in the Simulation of a Solar Space Heating System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-01-01

    this simulation an optimum collector size was determined from the energy requirements given by each model and a comparison made between the...Solar Collector Cross Section .. ............... 26 4. Solar System Schematic. .. .................. 31 5. Contributions to Annual Energy Cost...40 6. House Size I Annual Energy Cost. ....... ........ 46 7. House Size II Annual Energy Cost .. ..... ......... 47 8. House Size III Annual

  12. An overview of the utility of population simulation software in molecular ecology.

    PubMed

    Hoban, Sean

    2014-05-01

    Stochastic simulation software that simultaneously model genetic, population and environmental processes can inform many topics in molecular ecology. These include forecasting species and community response to environmental change, inferring dispersal ecology, revealing cryptic mating, quantifying past population dynamics, assessing in situ management options and monitoring neutral and adaptive biodiversity change. Advances in population demographic-genetic simulation software, especially with respect to individual life history, landscapes and genetic processes, are transforming and expanding the ways that molecular data can be used. The aim of this review is to explain the roles that such software can play in molecular ecology studies (whether as a principal component or a supporting function) so that researchers can decide whether, when and precisely how simulations can be incorporated into their work. First, I use seven case studies to demonstrate how simulations are employed, their specific advantage/necessity and what alternative or complementary (nonsimulation) approaches are available. I also explain how simulations can be integrated with existing spatial, environmental, historical and genetic data sets. I next describe simulation features that may be of interest to molecular ecologists, such as spatial and behavioural considerations and species' interactions, to provide guidance on how particular simulation capabilities can serve particular needs. Lastly, I discuss the prospect of simulation software in emerging challenges (climate change, biodiversity monitoring, population exploitation) and opportunities (genomics, ancient DNA), in order to emphasize that the scope of simulation-based work is expanding. I also suggest practical considerations, priorities and elements of best practice. This should accelerate the uptake of simulation approaches and firmly embed them as a versatile tool in the molecular ecologist's toolbox. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Wave energy analysis based on simulation wave data in the China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Zhan-sheng; Qian, Yu-hao; Sui, Yu-wei; Chen, Xuan; Zhang, Da

    2018-05-01

    In the current world, where human beings are severely plagued by environmental problems and energy crisis, the full and reasonable utilization of marine new energy resources will contribute to alleviating the energy crisis, contributing to global energy-saving, emission reduction and environmental protection, thus to promote sustainable development. In this study, we firstly simulated a 10-year (1991-2000) 6-hourly wave data of the China Sea, by using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model nested with WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with Cross-Calibrated, Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind data. Considering the value size and stability of the wave energy density, we analyzed the overall characteristics of the China Sea wave energy with using the simulation wave data. Results show that: (1) The wave energy density in January and October is distinctly higher than that in April and July. The large center of annual average Wave energy density is located in the north of the South China Sea (of about 12-16 kW/m). (2) Synthetically considering the value size and stability of the wave energy density and stability, the energy-rich area is found to be located in the north region of the South China Sea.

  14. InSTREAM: the individual-based stream trout research and environmental assessment model

    Treesearch

    Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Stephen K. Jackson; Roland H. Lamberson

    2009-01-01

    This report documents Version 4.2 of InSTREAM, including its formulation, software, and application to research and management problems. InSTREAM is a simulation model designed to understand how stream and river salmonid populations respond to habitat alteration, including altered flow, temperature, and turbidity regimes and changes in channel morphology. The model...

  15. THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELING OF COHESIVE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN A PARTIALLY STRATIFIED MICRO-TIDAL ESTUARY TO ASSESS EFFECTIVENESS OF SEDIMENT TRAPS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The three-dimensional (3D) finite difference model Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was used to simulate the hydrodynamics and sediment transport in a partially stratified micro-tidal estuary. The estuary modeled consisted of a 16-km reach of the St. Johns River, Florida,...

  16. Amanzi: An Open-Source Multi-process Simulator for Environmental Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulton, J. D.; Molins, S.; Johnson, J. N.; Coon, E.; Lipnikov, K.; Day, M.; Barker, E.

    2014-12-01

    The Advanced Simulation Capabililty for Environmental Management (ASCEM) program is developing an approach and open-source tool suite for standardized risk and performance assessments at legacy nuclear waste sites. These assessments begin with simplified models, and add geometric and geologic complexity as understanding is gained. The Platform toolsets (Akuna) generates these conceptual models and Amanzi provides the computational engine to perform the simulations, returning the results for analysis and visualization. In this presentation we highlight key elements of the design, algorithms and implementations used in Amanzi. In particular, the hierarchical and modular design is aligned with the coupled processes being sumulated, and naturally supports a wide range of model complexity. This design leverages a dynamic data manager and the synergy of two graphs (one from the high-level perspective of the models the other from the dependencies of the variables in the model) to enable this flexible model configuration at run time. Moreover, to model sites with complex hydrostratigraphy, as well as engineered systems, we are developing a dual unstructured/structured capability. Recently, these capabilities have been collected in a framework named Arcos, and efforts have begun to improve interoperability between the unstructured and structured AMR approaches in Amanzi. To leverage a range of biogeochemistry capability from the community (e.g., CrunchFlow, PFLOTRAN, etc.), a biogeochemistry interface library was developed called Alquimia. To ensure that Amanzi is truly an open-source community code we require a completely open-source tool chain for our development. We will comment on elements of this tool chain, including the testing and documentation development tools such as docutils, and Sphinx. Finally, we will show simulation results from our phased demonstrations, including the geochemically complex Savannah River F-Area seepage basins.

  17. Determination of Acoustic Effects on Marine Mammals and Sea Turtles for the Hawaii-Southern California Training and Testing Environmental Impact Statement/Overseas Environmental Impact Statement

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-12

    Acoustic Simulation System/Gaussian Ray Bundle (CASS/GRAB), Range-Dependent Acoustic Model (RAM), or Reflection and Refraction Multilayered Ocean / Ocean ...Multilayered Ocean / Ocean Bottoms with Shear Wave Effects RES Relative Environmental Suitability SEL Sound exposure level SOCAL Southern California SPL...the Office of Naval Research. The HSTT Study Area is comprised of established operating and warning areas across the north-central Pacific Ocean

  18. Addendum to `numerical modeling of an enhanced very early time electromagnetic (VETEM) prototype system'

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cui, T.J.; Chew, W.C.; Aydiner, A.A.; Wright, D.L.; Smith, D.V.; Abraham, J.D.

    2000-01-01

    Two numerical models to simulate an enhanced very early time electromagnetic (VETEM) prototype system that is used for buried-object detection and environmental problems are presented. In the first model, the transmitting and receiving loop antennas accurately analyzed using the method of moments (MoM), and then conjugate gradient (CG) methods with the fast Fourier transform (FFT) are utilized to investigate the scattering from buried conducting plates. In the second model, two magnetic dipoles are used to replace the transmitter and receiver. Both the theory and formulation are correct and the simulation results for the primary magnetic field and the reflected magnetic field are accurate.

  19. Atmosphere behavior in gas-closed mouse-algal systems - An experimental and modelling study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Averner, M. M.; Moore, B., III; Bartholomew, I.; Wharton, R.

    1984-01-01

    A NASA-sponsored research program initiated using mathematical modelling and laboratory experimentation aimed at examining the gas-exchange characteristics of artificial animal/plant systems closed to the ambient atmosphere is studied. The development of control techniques and management strategies for maintaining the atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and oxygen at physiological levels is considered. A mathematical model simulating the behavior of a gas-closed mouse-algal system under varying environmental conditions is described. To verify and validate the model simulations, an analytical system with which algal growth and gas exchange characteristics can be manipulated and measured is designed, fabricated, and tested. The preliminary results are presented.

  20. Predicting effects of environmental change on river inflows to ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Estuarine river watersheds provide valued ecosystem services to their surrounding communities including drinking water, fish habitat, and regulation of estuarine water quality. However, the provisioning of these services can be affected by changes in the quantity and quality of river water, such as those caused by altered landscapes or shifting temperatures or precipitation. We used the ecohydrology model, VELMA, in the Trask River watershed to simulate the effects of environmental change scenarios on estuarine river inputs to Tillamook Bay (OR) estuary. The Trask River watershed is 453 km2 and contains extensive agriculture, silviculture, urban, and wetland areas. VELMA was parameterized using existing spatial datasets of elevation, soil type, land use, air temperature, precipitation, river flow, and water quality. Simulated land use change scenarios included alterations in the distribution of the nitrogen-fixing tree species Alnus rubra, and comparisons of varying timber harvest plans. Scenarios involving spatial and temporal shifts in air temperature and precipitation trends were also simulated. Our research demonstrates the utility of ecohydrology models such as VELMA to aid in watershed management decision-making. Model outputs of river water flow, temperature, and nutrient concentrations can be used to predict effects on drinking water quality, salmonid populations, and estuarine water quality. This modeling effort is part of a larger framework of

  1. Broadening of cloud droplet spectra through turbulent entrainment and eddy hopping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abade, Gustavo; Grabowski, Wojciech; Pawlowska, Hanna

    2017-11-01

    This work discusses the effect of cloud turbulence and turbulent entrainment on the evolution of the cloud droplet-size spectrum. We simulate an ensemble of idealized turbulent cloud parcels that are subject to entrainment events, modeled as a random Poisson process. Entrainment events, subsequent turbulent mixing inside the parcel, supersaturation fluctuations, and the resulting stochastic droplet growth by condensation are simulated using a Monte Carlo scheme. Quantities characterizing the turbulence intensity, entrainment rate and the mean fraction of environmental air entrained in an event are specified as external parameters. Cloud microphysics is described by applying Lagrangian particles, the so-called superdroplets. They are either unactivated cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or cloud droplets that form from activated CCN. The model accounts for the transport of environmental CCN into the cloud by the entraining eddies at the cloud edge. Turbulent mixing of the entrained dry air with cloudy air is described using a linear model. We show that turbulence plays an important role in aiding entrained CCN to activate, providing a source of small cloud droplets and thus broadening the droplet size distribution. Further simulation results will be reported at the meeting.

  2. Simulating Microdosimetry of Environmental Chemicals for EPA’s Virtual Liver

    EPA Science Inventory

    US EPA Virtual Liver (v-Liver) is a cellular systems model of hepatic tissues aimed at predicting chemical-induced adverse effects through agent-based modeling. A primary objective of the project is to extrapolate in vitro data to in vivo outcomes. Agent-based approaches to tissu...

  3. Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

  4. ASSESSMENT OF ETA-CMAQ FORECASTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH SURFACE NETWORK AND SPECIALIZED MEASUREMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    An air-quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta model and the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is used to simulate the distributions of tropospheric ...

  5. Capturing microbial sources distributed in a mixed-use watershed within an integrated environmental modeling workflow

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many watershed models simulate overland and instream microbial fate and transport, but few provide loading rates on land surfaces and point sources to the waterbody network. This paper describes the underlying equations for microbial loading rates associated with 1) land-applied ...

  6. Capturing microbial sources distributed in a mixed-use watershed within an integrated environmental modeling workflow

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Many watershed models simulate overland and instream microbial fate and transport, but few provide loading rates on land surfaces and point sources to the waterbody network. This paper describes the underlying equations for microbial loading rates associated with 1) land-applied manure on undevelope...

  7. Simulation of genotype-by-environment interactions on irrigated soybean yields in the U.S. Midsouth

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Dynamic crop models that incorporate the effect of environmental variables can potentially explain yield differences associated with location, year, planting date, and cultivars with different growing cycles. Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Mer.) cultivar coefficients for the DSSAT-CROPGRO model were cali...

  8. Subsatellite Orbital Analysis Program (SOAP) user's guide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castle, K. G.; Voss, J. M.; Gibson, J. S.

    1981-07-01

    The features and use of the subsatellite operational analysis are examined. The model simulates several Earth-orbiting vehicles, their pilots, control systems, and interaction with the environment. The use of the program, input and output capabilities, executive structures, and properties of the vehicles and environmental effects which it models are described.

  9. Subsatellite Orbital Analysis Program (SOAP) user's guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Castle, K. G.; Voss, J. M.; Gibson, J. S.

    1981-01-01

    The features and use of the subsatellite operational analysis are examined. The model simulates several Earth-orbiting vehicles, their pilots, control systems, and interaction with the environment. The use of the program, input and output capabilities, executive structures, and properties of the vehicles and environmental effects which it models are described.

  10. Modeling and Validation of 48V Mild Hybrid Lithium-ion Battery Pack

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of the Midterm Evaluation of the 2017-2025 Light-duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Standards, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed simulation models for studying the effectiveness of 48V mild hybrid technology for reducing CO2 emissions from light-duty...

  11. Effects of soil moisture on the diurnal pattern of pesticide emission: Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Accurate prediction of pesticide volatilization is important for the protection of human and environmental health. Due to the complexity of the volatilization process, sophisticated predictive models are needed, especially for dry soil conditions. A mathematical model was developed to allow simulati...

  12. Lab-scaled model to evaluate odor and gas production from cattle confinement facilities with deep bedded packs

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A lab-scaled simulated bedded pack model was developed to study air quality and nutrient composition of deep-bedded packs found in cattle monoslope facilities. This protocol has been used to effectively evaluate many different bedding materials, environmental variables (temperature, humidity), and ...

  13. On the spread of changes in marine low cloud cover in climate model simulations of the 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; Caldwell, Peter M.

    2014-05-01

    In 36 climate change simulations associated with phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), changes in marine low cloud cover (LCC) exhibit a large spread, and may be either positive or negative. Here we develop a heuristic model to understand the source of the spread. The model's premise is that simulated LCC changes can be interpreted as a linear combination of contributions from factors shaping the clouds' large-scale environment. We focus primarily on two factors—the strength of the inversion capping the atmospheric boundary layer (measured by the estimated inversion strength, EIS) and sea surface temperature (SST). For a given global model, the respective contributions of EIS and SST are computed. This is done by multiplying (1) the current-climate's sensitivity of LCC to EIS or SST variations, by (2) the climate-change signal in EIS or SST. The remaining LCC changes are then attributed to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and other environmental factors. The heuristic model is remarkably skillful. Its SST term dominates, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the intermodel variance of LCC changes in CMIP3 models, and about half in CMIP5 models. Of the two factors governing the SST term (the SST increase and the sensitivity of LCC to SST perturbations), the SST sensitivity drives the spread in the SST term and hence the spread in the overall LCC changes. This sensitivity varies a great deal from model to model and is strongly linked to the types of cloud and boundary layer parameterizations used in the models. EIS and SST sensitivities are also estimated using observational cloud and meteorological data. The observed sensitivities are generally consistent with the majority of models as well as expectations from prior research. Based on the observed sensitivities and the relative magnitudes of simulated EIS and SST changes (which we argue are also physically reasonable), the heuristic model predicts LCC will decrease over the 21st-century. However, to place a strong constraint, for example on the magnitude of the LCC decrease, will require longer observational records and a careful assessment of other environmental factors producing LCC changes. Meanwhile, addressing biases in simulated EIS and SST sensitivities will clearly be an important step towards reducing intermodel spread in simulated LCC changes.

  14. Modeling the effects of ozone on soybean growth and yield.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, K; Miller, J E; Flagler, R B; Heck, W W

    1990-01-01

    A simple mechanistic model was developed based on an existing growth model in order to address the mechanisms of the effects of ozone on growth and yield of soybean [Glycine max. (L.) Merr. 'Davis'] and interacting effects of other environmental stresses. The model simulates daily growth of soybean plants using environmental data including shortwave radiation, temperature, precipitation, irrigation and ozone concentration. Leaf growth, dry matter accumulation, water budget, nitrogen input and seed growth linked to senescence and abscission of leaves are described in the model. The effects of ozone are modeled as reduced photosynthate production and accelerated senescence. The model was applied to the open-top chamber experiments in which soybean plants were exposed to ozone under two levels of soil moisture regimes. After calibrating the model to the growth data and seed yield, goodness-of-fit of the model was tested. The model fitted well for top dry weight in the vegetative growth phase and also at maturity. The effect of ozone on seen yield was also described satisfactorily by the model. The simulation showed apparent interaction between the effect of ozone and soil moisture stress on the seed yield. The model revealed that further work is needed concerning the effect of ozone on the senescence process and the consequences of alteration of canopy microclimate by the open-top chambers.

  15. A Model Based on Environmental Factors for Diameter Distribution in Black Wattle in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Sanquetta, Carlos Roberto; Behling, Alexandre; Dalla Corte, Ana Paula; Péllico Netto, Sylvio; Rodrigues, Aurelio Lourenço; Simon, Augusto Arlindo

    2014-01-01

    This article discusses the dynamics of a diameter distribution in stands of black wattle throughout its growth cycle using the Weibull probability density function. Moreover, the parameters of this distribution were related to environmental variables from meteorological data and surface soil horizon with the aim of finding a model for diameter distribution which their coefficients were related to the environmental variables. We found that the diameter distribution of the stand changes only slightly over time and that the estimators of the Weibull function are correlated with various environmental variables, with accumulated rainfall foremost among them. Thus, a model was obtained in which the estimators of the Weibull function are dependent on rainfall. Such a function can have important applications, such as in simulating growth potential in regions where historical growth data is lacking, as well as the behavior of the stand under different environmental conditions. The model can also be used to project growth in diameter, based on the rainfall affecting the forest over a certain time period. PMID:24932909

  16. 40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

  17. 40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

  18. 40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

  19. 40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

  20. 40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

  1. Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

    2017-01-01

    Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

  2. A Facility and Architecture for Autonomy Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pisanich, Greg; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Autonomy is a key enabling factor in the advancement of the remote robotic exploration. There is currently a large gap between autonomy software at the research level and software that is ready for insertion into near-term space missions. The Mission Simulation Facility (MST) will bridge this gap by providing a simulation framework and suite of simulation tools to support research in autonomy for remote exploration. This system will allow developers of autonomy software to test their models in a high-fidelity simulation and evaluate their system's performance against a set of integrated, standardized simulations. The Mission Simulation ToolKit (MST) uses a distributed architecture with a communication layer that is built on top of the standardized High Level Architecture (HLA). This architecture enables the use of existing high fidelity models, allows mixing simulation components from various computing platforms and enforces the use of a standardized high-level interface among components. The components needed to achieve a realistic simulation can be grouped into four categories: environment generation (terrain, environmental features), robotic platform behavior (robot dynamics), instrument models (camera/spectrometer/etc.), and data analysis. The MST will provide basic components in these areas but allows users to plug-in easily any refined model by means of a communication protocol. Finally, a description file defines the robot and environment parameters for easy configuration and ensures that all the simulation models share the same information.

  3. Environmental Barrier Coating Development for SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites: Recent Advances and Future Directions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Dongming

    2016-01-01

    This presentation briefly reviews the SiC/SiC major environmental and environment-fatigue degradations encountered in simulated turbine combustion environments, and thus NASA environmental barrier coating system evolution for protecting the SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites for meeting the engine performance requirements. The presentation will review several generations of NASA EBC materials systems, EBC-CMC component system technologies for SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite combustors and turbine airfoils, highlighting the temperature capability and durability improvements in simulated engine high heat flux, high pressure, high velocity, and with mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions. This paper will also focus on the performance requirements and design considerations of environmental barrier coatings for next generation turbine engine applications. The current development emphasis is placed on advanced NASA candidate environmental barrier coating systems for SiC/SiC CMCs, their performance benefits and design limitations in long-term operation and combustion environments. The efforts have been also directed to developing prime-reliant, self-healing 2700F EBC bond coat; and high stability, lower thermal conductivity, and durable EBC top coats. Major technical barriers in developing environmental barrier coating systems, the coating integrations with next generation CMCs having the improved environmental stability, erosion-impact resistance, and long-term fatigue-environment system durability performance will be described. The research and development opportunities for turbine engine environmental barrier coating systems by utilizing improved compositions, state-of-the-art processing methods, and simulated environment testing and durability modeling will be briefly discussed.

  4. The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

    DOE PAGES

    Winterhalter, Wade E.

    2011-09-01

    Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

  5. Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rajbhandaril, Narayan; Crosson, William; Tsegaye, Teferi; Coleman, Tommy; Liu, Yaping; Soman, Vishwas

    1998-01-01

    Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

  6. Pain expressiveness and altruistic behavior: an exploration using agent-based modeling.

    PubMed

    de C Williams, Amanda C; Gallagher, Elizabeth; Fidalgo, Antonio R; Bentley, Peter J

    2016-03-01

    Predictions which invoke evolutionary mechanisms are hard to test. Agent-based modeling in artificial life offers a way to simulate behaviors and interactions in specific physical or social environments over many generations. The outcomes have implications for understanding adaptive value of behaviors in context. Pain-related behavior in animals is communicated to other animals that might protect or help, or might exploit or predate. An agent-based model simulated the effects of displaying or not displaying pain (expresser/nonexpresser strategies) when injured and of helping, ignoring, or exploiting another in pain (altruistic/nonaltruistic/selfish strategies). Agents modeled in MATLAB interacted at random while foraging (gaining energy); random injury interrupted foraging for a fixed time unless help from an altruistic agent, who paid an energy cost, speeded recovery. Environmental and social conditions also varied, and each model ran for 10,000 iterations. Findings were meaningful in that, in general, contingencies that evident from experimental work with a variety of mammals, over a few interactions, were replicated in the agent-based model after selection pressure over many generations. More energy-demanding expression of pain reduced its frequency in successive generations, and increasing injury frequency resulted in fewer expressers and altruists. Allowing exploitation of injured agents decreased expression of pain to near zero, but altruists remained. Decreasing costs or increasing benefits of helping hardly changed its frequency, whereas increasing interaction rate between injured agents and helpers diminished the benefits to both. Agent-based modeling allows simulation of complex behaviors and environmental pressures over evolutionary time.

  7. Model-centered approach to early planning and design of an eco-industrial park around an oil refinery.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiangping; Strømman, Anders H; Solli, Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2008-07-01

    Industrial symbiosis promises environmental and economic gains through a utilization of the waste of some processes as a resource for other processes. Because of the costs and difficulties of transporting some wastes, the largest theoretical potential for industrial symbiosis is given when facilities are colocated in an eco-industrial park (EIP). This study proposes a model-centered approach with an eight-step procedure for the early planning and design of an eco-industrial park considering technical and environmental factors. Chemical process simulation software was used to model the energy and material flows among the prospective members and to quantify the benefits of integration among different firms in terms of energy and resources saved as compared to a reference situation. Process simulation was based on a combination of physical models of industrial processes and empirical models. The modeling allows for the development and evaluation of different collaboration opportunities and configurations. It also enables testing chosen configurations under hypothetical situations or external conditions. We present a case study around an existing oil and gas refinery in Mongstad, Norway. We used the approach to propose the colocation of a number of industrial facilities around the refinery, focused on integrating energy use among the facilities. An EIP with six main members was designed and simulated, matching new hypothetical members in size to the existing operations, modeling material and energy flows in the EIP, and assessing these in terms of carbon and hydrogen flows.

  8. A Hybrid Multiscale Framework for Subsurface Flow and Transport Simulations

    DOE PAGES

    Scheibe, Timothy D.; Yang, Xiaofan; Chen, Xingyuan; ...

    2015-06-01

    Extensive research efforts have been invested in reducing model errors to improve the predictive ability of biogeochemical earth and environmental system simulators, with applications ranging from contaminant transport and remediation to impacts of biogeochemical elemental cycling (e.g., carbon and nitrogen) on local ecosystems and regional to global climate. While the bulk of this research has focused on improving model parameterizations in the face of observational limitations, the more challenging type of model error/uncertainty to identify and quantify is model structural error which arises from incorrect mathematical representations of (or failure to consider) important physical, chemical, or biological processes, properties, ormore » system states in model formulations. While improved process understanding can be achieved through scientific study, such understanding is usually developed at small scales. Process-based numerical models are typically designed for a particular characteristic length and time scale. For application-relevant scales, it is generally necessary to introduce approximations and empirical parameterizations to describe complex systems or processes. This single-scale approach has been the best available to date because of limited understanding of process coupling combined with practical limitations on system characterization and computation. While computational power is increasing significantly and our understanding of biological and environmental processes at fundamental scales is accelerating, using this information to advance our knowledge of the larger system behavior requires the development of multiscale simulators. Accordingly there has been much recent interest in novel multiscale methods in which microscale and macroscale models are explicitly coupled in a single hybrid multiscale simulation. A limited number of hybrid multiscale simulations have been developed for biogeochemical earth systems, but they mostly utilize application-specific and sometimes ad-hoc approaches for model coupling. We are developing a generalized approach to hierarchical model coupling designed for high-performance computational systems, based on the Swift computing workflow framework. In this presentation we will describe the generalized approach and provide two use cases: 1) simulation of a mixing-controlled biogeochemical reaction coupling pore- and continuum-scale models, and 2) simulation of biogeochemical impacts of groundwater – river water interactions coupling fine- and coarse-grid model representations. This generalized framework can be customized for use with any pair of linked models (microscale and macroscale) with minimal intrusiveness to the at-scale simulators. It combines a set of python scripts with the Swift workflow environment to execute a complex multiscale simulation utilizing an approach similar to the well-known Heterogeneous Multiscale Method. User customization is facilitated through user-provided input and output file templates and processing function scripts, and execution within a high-performance computing environment is handled by Swift, such that minimal to no user modification of at-scale codes is required.« less

  9. Modeling Environmental Influences in the Psyllaephagus bliteus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae)-Glycaspis brimblecombei (Hemiptera: Aphalaridae) Parasitoid-Host System.

    PubMed

    Margiotta, M; Bella, S; Buffa, F; Caleca, V; Floris, I; Giorno, V; Lo Verde, G; Rapisarda, C; Sasso, R; Suma, P; Tortorici, F; Laudonia, S

    2017-04-01

    Glycaspis brimblecombei Moore (Hemiptera: Aphalaridae) is an invasive psyllid introduced into the Mediterranean area, where it affects several species of Eucalyptus. Psyllaephagus bliteus Riek (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) is a specialized parasitoid of this psyllid that was accidentally introduced into Italy in 2011. We developed a model of this host-parasitoid system that accounts for the influence of environmental conditions on the G. brimblecombei population dynamics and P. bliteus parasitism rates in the natural ecosystem. The Lotka-Volterra-based model predicts non-constant host growth and parasitoid mortality rates in association with variation in environmental conditions. The model was tested by analyzing sampling data collected in Naples in 2011 (before the parasitoid was present) and defining several environmental patterns, termed Temperature-Rain or T-R patterns, which correspond to the host growth rate. A mean value of the host growth rate was assigned to each T-R pattern, as well as a variation of the parasitoid mortality rate based on temperature thresholds. The proposed model was applied in simulation tests related to T-R patterns carried out with a data series sampled between June 2014 and July 2015 in five Italian sites located in Campania, Lazio, Sicily, and Sardinia regions. The simulation results showed that the proposed model provides an accurate approximation of population trends, although oscillation details may not be apparent. Results predict a 64% reduction in G. brimblecombei population density owing to P. bliteus parasitoid activity. Our results are discussed with respect to features of the host-parasitoid interaction that could be exploited in future biological control programs. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Modelling and observing the role of wind in Anopheles population dynamics around a reservoir.

    PubMed

    Endo, Noriko; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

    2018-01-25

    Wind conditions, as well as other environmental conditions, are likely to influence malaria transmission through the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes, especially around water-resource reservoirs. Wind-induced waves in a reservoir impose mortality on aquatic-stage mosquitoes. Mosquitoes' host-seeking activity is also influenced by wind through dispersion of [Formula: see text]. However, no malaria transmission model exists to date that simulated those impacts of wind mechanistically. A modelling framework for simulating the three important effects of wind on the behaviours of mosquito is developed: attraction of adult mosquitoes through dispersion of [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] attraction), advection of adult mosquitoes (advection), and aquatic-stage mortality due to wind-induced surface waves (waves). The framework was incorporated in a mechanistic malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS. The performance of the extended simulator was compared with the observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes at a village adjacent to the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia. The observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes were reproduced with some reasonable accuracy in HYDREMATS that includes the representation of the wind effects. HYDREMATS without the wind model failed to do so. Offshore wind explained the increase in Anopheles population that cannot be expected from other environmental conditions alone. Around large water bodies such as reservoirs, the role of wind in the dynamics of Anopheles population, hence in malaria transmission, can be significant. Modelling the impacts of wind on the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes aids in reproducing the seasonality of malaria transmission and in estimation of the risk of malaria around reservoirs.

  11. On the battleground of environmental and competition policy: The renewable electricity market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meszaros, Matyas Tamas

    Renewable energy sources have become increasingly important in the efforts to provide energy security and to fight global warming. In the last decade environmental policy has increased the support for renewable electricity. At the same time the electricity sector was often subject of antitrust investigation because of relevant market concentration, and market power. This dissertation looks at the renewable electricity market to analyze the effect of environmental policy on competition. The first chapter provides a short introduction into the regulatory schemes of electricity markets. The second chapter analyzes the demand side of the electricity market. The estimations show that there was no significant change in the income and price elasticity in the electricity consumption of the US households between 1993 an 2001, although there was several policy initiatives to increase energy efficiency and decrease consumption. The third chapter derives a theoretical model where the feed-in tariff and the tradable green certificate system can be analyzed under oligopolistic market structure. The results of the model suggest that the introduction of the environmentally friendly regulatory schemes can decrease the electricity prices compared to the case when there is no support for renewable energy. The other findings of this model is that the price of electricity rises when the requirement for renewable energy increases. In the fourth chapter a simulation model of the UK electricity market is used to test the effect of mergers and acquisitions under the environmental support scheme. The results emphasize the importance of the capacity limit, because it can constrain the strategic action of the electricity producers. The results of the simulation also suggest that the increasing concentration can increase the production and lower the price of electricity and renewable energy certificates in the British Renewable Obligation system.

  12. OpenMP parallelization of a gridded SWAT (SWATG)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ying; Hou, Jinliang; Cao, Yongpan; Gu, Juan; Huang, Chunlin

    2017-12-01

    Large-scale, long-term and high spatial resolution simulation is a common issue in environmental modeling. A Gridded Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU)-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATG) that integrates grid modeling scheme with different spatial representations also presents such problems. The time-consuming problem affects applications of very high resolution large-scale watershed modeling. The OpenMP (Open Multi-Processing) parallel application interface is integrated with SWATG (called SWATGP) to accelerate grid modeling based on the HRU level. Such parallel implementation takes better advantage of the computational power of a shared memory computer system. We conducted two experiments at multiple temporal and spatial scales of hydrological modeling using SWATG and SWATGP on a high-end server. At 500-m resolution, SWATGP was found to be up to nine times faster than SWATG in modeling over a roughly 2000 km2 watershed with 1 CPU and a 15 thread configuration. The study results demonstrate that parallel models save considerable time relative to traditional sequential simulation runs. Parallel computations of environmental models are beneficial for model applications, especially at large spatial and temporal scales and at high resolutions. The proposed SWATGP model is thus a promising tool for large-scale and high-resolution water resources research and management in addition to offering data fusion and model coupling ability.

  13. Simulation of trace metals and PAH atmospheric pollution over Greater Paris: Concentrations and deposition on urban surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thouron, L.; Seigneur, C.; Kim, Y.; Legorgeu, C.; Roustan, Y.; Bruge, B.

    2017-10-01

    Urban areas can be subject not only to poor air quality, but also to contamination of other environmental media by air pollutants. Here, we address the potential transfer of selected air pollutants (two metals and three PAH) to urban surfaces. To that end, we simulate meteorology and air pollution from Europe to a Paris suburban neighborhood, using a four-level one-way nesting approach. The meteorological and air quality simulations use urban canopy sub-models in order to better represent the effect of the urban morphology on the air flow, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants to urban surfaces. This modeling approach allows us to distinguish air pollutant deposition among various urban surfaces (roofs, roads, and walls). Meteorological model performance is satisfactory, showing improved results compared to earlier simulations, although precipitation amounts are underestimated. Concentration simulation results are also satisfactory for both metals, with a fractional bias <0.5. Concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene are overestimated, probably because continental emissions may be overestimated. Concentrations of benzo[b]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3,cd]pyrene are underestimated, in part because of null boundary conditions. PAH deposition fluxes are consistent with earlier measurements obtained in the Greater Paris region. The model simulation results suggest that both wet and dry deposition processes need to be considered when estimating the transfer of air pollutants to other environmental media. Dry deposition fluxes to various urban surfaces are mostly uniform for PAH, which are entirely present in fine particles. However, there is significantly less wall deposition compared to deposition to roofs and roads for trace metals, due to their coarse fraction. Meteorology, particle size distribution, and urban morphology are all important factors affecting air pollutant deposition. Future work should focus on the collection of data suitable to evaluate the performance of atmospheric models for both wet and dry deposition with fine spatial resolution.

  14. Experiments with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) using the synthetic relative humidity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, Chia-Bo

    1994-01-01

    This study is intended to examine the impact of the synthetic relative humidity on the model simulation of mesoscale convective storm environment. The synthetic relative humidity is derived from the National Weather Services surface observations, and non-conventional sources including aircraft, radar, and satellite observations. The latter sources provide the mesoscale data of very high spatial and temporal resolution. The synthetic humidity data is used to complement the National Weather Services rawinsonde observations. It is believed that a realistic representation of initial moisture field in a mesoscale model is critical for the model simulation of thunderstorm development, and the formation of non-convective clouds as well as their effects on the surface energy budget. The impact will be investigated based on a real-data case study using the mesoscale atmospheric simulation system developed by Mesoscale Environmental Simulations Operations, Inc. The mesoscale atmospheric simulation system consists of objective analysis and initialization codes, and the coarse-mesh and fine-mesh dynamic prediction models. Both models are a three dimensional, primitive equation model containing the essential moist physics for simulating and forecasting mesoscale convective processes in the atmosphere. The modeling system is currently implemented at the Applied Meteorology Unit, Kennedy Space Center. Two procedures involving the synthetic relative humidity to define the model initial moisture fields are considered. It is proposed to perform several short-range (approximately 6 hours) comparative coarse-mesh simulation experiments with and without the synthetic data. They are aimed at revealing the model sensitivities should allow us both to refine the specification of the observational requirements, and to develop more accurate and efficient objective analysis schemes. The goal is to advance the MASS (Mesoscal Atmospheric Simulation System) modeling expertise so that the model output can provide reliable guidance for thunderstorm forecasting.

  15. Nonlinear Porous Diffusion Modeling of Hydrophilic Ionic Agrochemicals in Astomatous Plant Cuticle Aqueous Pores: A Mechanistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Tredenick, Eloise C; Farrell, Troy W; Forster, W Alison; Psaltis, Steven T P

    2017-01-01

    The agricultural industry requires improved efficacy of sprays being applied to crops and weeds in order to reduce their environmental impact and deliver improved financial returns. Enhanced foliar uptake is one means of improving efficacy. The plant leaf cuticle is known to be the main barrier to diffusion of agrochemicals within the leaf. The usefulness of a mathematical model to simulate uptake of agrochemicals in plant cuticles has been noted previously in the literature, as the results of each uptake experiment are specific to each formulation of active ingredient, plant species and environmental conditions. In this work we develop a mathematical model and numerical simulation for the uptake of hydrophilic ionic agrochemicals through aqueous pores in plant cuticles. We propose a novel, nonlinear, porous diffusion model for ionic agrochemicals in isolated cuticles, which extends simple diffusion through the incorporation of parameters capable of simulating: plant species variations, evaporation of surface droplet solutions, ion binding effects on the cuticle surface and swelling of the aqueous pores with water. We validate our theoretical results against appropriate experimental data, discuss the key sensitivities in the model and relate theoretical predictions to appropriate physical mechanisms. Major influencing factors have been found to be cuticle structure, including tortuosity and density of the aqueous pores, and to a lesser extent humidity and cuticle surface ion binding effects.

  16. Nonlinear Porous Diffusion Modeling of Hydrophilic Ionic Agrochemicals in Astomatous Plant Cuticle Aqueous Pores: A Mechanistic Approach

    PubMed Central

    Tredenick, Eloise C.; Farrell, Troy W.; Forster, W. Alison; Psaltis, Steven T. P.

    2017-01-01

    The agricultural industry requires improved efficacy of sprays being applied to crops and weeds in order to reduce their environmental impact and deliver improved financial returns. Enhanced foliar uptake is one means of improving efficacy. The plant leaf cuticle is known to be the main barrier to diffusion of agrochemicals within the leaf. The usefulness of a mathematical model to simulate uptake of agrochemicals in plant cuticles has been noted previously in the literature, as the results of each uptake experiment are specific to each formulation of active ingredient, plant species and environmental conditions. In this work we develop a mathematical model and numerical simulation for the uptake of hydrophilic ionic agrochemicals through aqueous pores in plant cuticles. We propose a novel, nonlinear, porous diffusion model for ionic agrochemicals in isolated cuticles, which extends simple diffusion through the incorporation of parameters capable of simulating: plant species variations, evaporation of surface droplet solutions, ion binding effects on the cuticle surface and swelling of the aqueous pores with water. We validate our theoretical results against appropriate experimental data, discuss the key sensitivities in the model and relate theoretical predictions to appropriate physical mechanisms. Major influencing factors have been found to be cuticle structure, including tortuosity and density of the aqueous pores, and to a lesser extent humidity and cuticle surface ion binding effects. PMID:28539930

  17. Agent-Based Simulations of Malaria Transmissions with Applications to a Study Site in Thailand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Zollner, Gabriela E.; Coleman, Russell E.

    2006-01-01

    The dynamics of malaria transmission are driven by environmental, biotic and socioeconomic factors. Because of the geographic dependency of these factors and the complex interactions among them, it is difficult to generalize the key factors that perpetuate or intensify malaria transmission. Methods: Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Meteorological and environmental parameters may be derived from satellite data. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. Results: Three years of transmissions of vivax and falciparum malaria were simulated for a hypothetical hamlet with approximately 1/7 of the study site population. The model generated results for a number of scenarios, including applications of larvicide and insecticide, asymptomatic cases receiving or not receiving treatment, blocking malaria transmission in mosquito vectors, and increasing the density of farm (host) animals in the hamlet. Transmission characteristics and trends in the simulated results are comparable to actual data collected at the study site.

  18. The WEPP Model Application in a Small Watershed in the Loess Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Han, Fengpeng; Ren, Lulu; Zhang, Xingchang; Li, Zhanbin

    2016-01-01

    In the Loess Plateau, soil erosion has not only caused serious ecological and environmental problems but has also impacted downstream areas. Therefore, a model is needed to guide the comprehensive control of soil erosion. In this study, we introduced the WEPP model to simulate soil erosion both at the slope and watershed scales. Our analyses showed that: the simulated values at the slope scale were very close to the measured. However, both the runoff and soil erosion simulated values at the watershed scale were higher than the measured. At the slope scale, under different coverage, the simulated erosion was slightly higher than the measured. When the coverage is 40%, the simulated results of both runoff and erosion are the best. At the watershed scale, the actual annual runoff of the Liudaogou watershed is 83m3; sediment content is 0.097 t/m3, annual erosion sediment 8.057t and erosion intensity 0.288 t ha-1 yr-1. Both the simulated values of soil erosion and runoff are higher than the measured, especially the runoff. But the simulated erosion trend is relatively accurate after the farmland is returned to grassland. We concluded that the WEPP model can be used to establish a reasonable vegetation restoration model and guide the vegetation restoration of the Loess Plateau. PMID:26963704

  19. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gardner, W. P.

    2017-12-01

    A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

  20. Contrasting Hydrodynamic and Environmental Effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Ike in a Highly Industrialized Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiaghadi, A.; Rifai, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    It is commonly believed that storm surge is the most destructive aspect of hurricanes. However, massive rainfall with a return period of 100 years or more induced by hurricanes can cause more catastrophic damage than losses caused by storm surge as demonstrated recently by hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. In this study the hydrodynamics and environmental effects of hurricanes Ike and Harvey were compared and contrasted by linking hydrodynamic flow models with water quality models to simulate spills from storage tanks located in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC). Hurricane Ike with a maximum surge of 5.3 meters in Galveston Bay and Harvey with a maximum rainfall of 1.25 meters both struck the HSC region in Texas in 2008 and 2017, respectively. Both events resulted in numerous spills from municipal and industrial facilities, hazardous waste sites, superfund sites, and landfills. The Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) was coupled with the SWAN+ADCIRC hurricane simulation model to simulate Hurricane Ike and EFDC was coupled with USGS flow boundary conditions to model Hurricane Harvey. A conservative dye release was used to simulate a chemical release during each event. The results showed Hurricane Harvey caused higher water surface elevations within the HSC accompanied by longer and wider-spread land inundation. In contrast, higher water surface elevations were observed within the shallow side bays during Hurricane Ike that caused sediment resuspension and repartitioning of pollutants. Rapid spill mass transportation was observed for both hurricanes; 50% of total spill mass reached Galveston Bay in 20 and 22 hours after a spill event for Hurricane Harvey and Ike, respectively, and more than 90% of the spill mass reached the bay in 36 and 48 hours, respectively. Unlike Hurricane Harvey, the conservative tracer was spread almost 2.5 km upstream of the releasing point for Hurricane Ike due to surge. However, during Harvey, 35% more land was affected by the spilled mass with five times more remained mass on the land.

  1. Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models.

    PubMed

    Mulder, Han A; Rönnegård, Lars; Fikse, W Freddy; Veerkamp, Roel F; Strandberg, Erling

    2013-07-04

    Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike's information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike's information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike's information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

  2. Spin-up simulation behaviors in a climate model to build a basement of long-time simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.; Xue, Y.; De Sales, F.

    2015-12-01

    It is essential to develop start-up information when conducting long-time climate simulation. In case that the initial condition is already available from the previous simulation of same type model this does not necessary; however, if not, model needs spin-up simulation to have adjusted and balanced initial condition with the model climatology. Otherwise, a severe spin may take several years. Some of model variables such as deep soil temperature fields and temperature in ocean deep layers in initial fields would affect model's further long-time simulation due to their long residual memories. To investigate the important factor for spin-up simulation in producing an atmospheric initial condition, we had conducted two different spin-up simulations when no atmospheric condition is available from exist datasets. One simulation employed atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM), namely Global Forecast System (GFS) of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), while the other employed atmosphere-ocean coupled global circulation model (CGCM), namely Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP. Both models share the atmospheric modeling part and only difference is in applying of ocean model coupling, which is conducted by Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4) of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in CFS. During a decade of spin-up simulation, prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) fields of target year is forced to the GFS daily basis, while CFS digested only first time step ocean condition and freely iterated for the rest of the period. Both models were forced by CO2 condition and solar constant given from the target year. Our analyses of spin-up simulation results indicate that freely conducted interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere is more helpful to produce the initial condition for the target year rather than produced by fixed SST forcing. Since the GFS used prescribed forcing exactly given from the target year, this result is unexpected. The detail analysis will be discussed in this presentation.

  3. CDFISH: an individual-based, spatially-explicit, landscape genetics simulator for aquatic species in complex riverscapes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erin L. Landguth,; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Luikart, Gordon

    2012-01-01

    We introduce Cost Distance FISHeries (CDFISH), a simulator of population genetics and connectivity in complex riverscapes for a wide range of environmental scenarios of aquatic organisms. The spatially-explicit program implements individual-based genetic modeling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele mutation on a riverscape with resistance to movement. The program simulates individuals in subpopulations through time employing user-defined functions of individual migration, reproduction, mortality, and dispersal through straying on a continuous resistance surface.

  4. The use of simulation and multiple environmental tracers to quantify groundwater flow in a shallow aquifer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reilly, Thomas E.; Plummer, Niel; Phillips, Patrick J.; Busenberg, Eurybiades

    1994-01-01

    Measurements of the concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), tritium, and other environmental tracers can be used to calculate recharge ages of shallow groundwater and estimate rates of groundwater movement. Numerical simulation also provides quantitative estimates of flow rates, flow paths, and mixing properties of the groundwater system. The environmental tracer techniques and the hydraulic analyses each contribute to the understanding and quantification of the flow of shallow groundwater. However, when combined, the two methods provide feedback that improves the quantification of the flow system and provides insight into the processes that are the most uncertain. A case study near Locust Grove, Maryland, is used to investigate the utility of combining groundwater age dating, based on CFCs and tritium, and hydraulic analyses using numerical simulation techniques. The results of the feedback between an advective transport model and the estimates of groundwater ages determined by the CFCs improve a quantitative description of the system by refining the system conceptualization and estimating system parameters. The plausible system developed with this feedback between the advective flow model and the CFC ages is further tested using a solute transport simulation to reproduce the observed tritium distribution in the groundwater. The solute transport simulation corroborates the plausible system developed and also indicates that, for the system under investigation with the data obtained from 0.9-m-long (3-foot-long) well screens, the hydrodynamic dispersion is negligible. Together the two methods enable a coherent explanation of the flow paths and rates of movement while indicating weaknesses in the understanding of the system that will require future data collection and conceptual refinement of the groundwater system.

  5. Suitability of temperature sum models to simulate the flowering period of birches on regional scale as basis for realistic predictions of the allergenic potential of atmospheric pollen loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biernath, Christian; Hauck, Julia; Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Heinlein, Florian; Priesack, Eckart

    2014-05-01

    Persons susceptible to allergenic pollen grains need to apply suppressive pharmacy before the occurrence of the first allergy symptoms. Patient targeted medication could be improved if forecasts of the allergenic potential of pollen (biochemical composition of the pollen grain) and the onset, duration, and end of the pollen season are precise on regional scale. In plant tissue the biochemical composition may change within hours due to the resource availability for plant growth and plant internal nutrient re-mobilization. As these processes highly depend on both, the environmental conditions and the development stage of a plant, precise simulations of the onset and duration of the flowering period are crucial to determine the allergenic potential of tissues and pollen. Here, dynamic plant models that consider the dependence of the chemical composition of tissue on the development stage of the plant embedded in process-based ecosystem models seem promising tools; however, today dynamic plant growth is widely ignored in simulations of atmospheric pollen loads. In this study we raise the question whether frequently applied temperature sum models (TSM) could precisely simulate the plant development stages in case of birches on regional scale. These TSM integrate average temperatures above a base temperature below which no further plant development is assumed. In this study, we therefore tested the ability of TSM to simulate the flowering period of birches on more than 100 sites in Bavaria, Germany over a period of three years (2010-2012). Our simulations indicate that the often applied base temperatures between 2.3°C and 3.5°C for the integration of daily or hourly average temperatures, respectively, in Europe are too high to adequately simulate the onset of birch flowering in Bavaria where a base temperature of 1°C seems more convenient. A more regional calibration of the models to sub-regions in Bavaria with comparable climatic conditions could further improve the simulation results if compared to simulations using a model that was adjusted to only one representative location in Bavaria. Our simulation results suggest that birch phenology needs to be modelled on a more regional scale to derive precise predictions of the flowering period. Some weak simulation results are suspected to be due to the high genetic diversity of birches and their high adaptive potential to a wide range of environmental conditions which indeed is a characteristic for many pioneer species. The high adaptive potential could be an explanation why authors who calibrate their models to other climatic regions observe better simulation results using higher base temperatures. However, our simulations indicate that the simulation results may be biased if the base temperatures are assumed constant for one species and transferred to larger or smaller scales, to other regions with different climatic conditions, or when applied to extrapolate birch pollen seasons to future climate conditions.

  6. The role of the geophysical template and environmental regimes in controlling stream-living trout populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Penaluna, Brooke E.; Railsback, Steve F.; Dunham, Jason B.; Johnson, S.; Bilby, Richard E.; Skaugset, Arne E.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of multiple processes and instream factors to aquatic biota has been explored extensively, but questions remain about how local spatiotemporal variability of aquatic biota is tied to environmental regimes and the geophysical template of streams. We used an individual-based trout model to explore the relative role of the geophysical template versus environmental regimes on biomass of trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii). We parameterized the model with observed data from each of the four headwater streams (their local geophysical template and environmental regime) and then ran 12 simulations where we replaced environmental regimes (stream temperature, flow, turbidity) of a given stream with values from each neighboring stream while keeping the geophysical template fixed. We also performed single-parameter sensitivity analyses on the model results from each of the four streams. Although our modeled findings show that trout biomass is most responsive to changes in the geophysical template of streams, they also reveal that biomass is restricted by available habitat during seasonal low flow, which is a product of both the stream’s geophysical template and flow regime. Our modeled results suggest that differences in the geophysical template among streams render trout more or less sensitive to environmental change, emphasizing the importance of local fish–habitat relationships in streams.

  7. A latent process model for forecasting multiple time series in environmental public health surveillance.

    PubMed

    Morrison, Kathryn T; Shaddick, Gavin; Henderson, Sarah B; Buckeridge, David L

    2016-08-15

    This paper outlines a latent process model for forecasting multiple health outcomes arising from a common environmental exposure. Traditionally, surveillance models in environmental health do not link health outcome measures, such as morbidity or mortality counts, to measures of exposure, such as air pollution. Moreover, different measures of health outcomes are treated as independent, while it is known that they are correlated with one another over time as they arise in part from a common underlying exposure. We propose modelling an environmental exposure as a latent process, and we describe the implementation of such a model within a hierarchical Bayesian framework and its efficient computation using integrated nested Laplace approximations. Through a simulation study, we compare distinct univariate models for each health outcome with a bivariate approach. The bivariate model outperforms the univariate models in bias and coverage of parameter estimation, in forecast accuracy and in computational efficiency. The methods are illustrated with a case study using healthcare utilization and air pollution data from British Columbia, Canada, 2003-2011, where seasonal wildfires produce high levels of air pollution, significantly impacting population health. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Dynamic energy budget model: a monitoring tool for growth and reproduction performance of Mytilus galloprovincialis in Bizerte Lagoon (Southwestern Mediterranean Sea).

    PubMed

    Béjaoui-Omri, Amel; Béjaoui, Béchir; Harzallah, Ali; Aloui-Béjaoui, Nejla; El Bour, Monia; Aleya, Lotfi

    2014-11-01

    Mussel farming is the main economic activity in Bizerte Lagoon, with a production that fluctuates depending on environmental factors. In the present study, we apply a bioenergetic growth model to the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory which describes energy flux variation through the different compartments of the mussel body. Thus, the present model simulates both mussel growth and sexual cycle steps according to food availability and water temperature and also the effect of climate change on mussel behavior and reproduction. The results point to good concordance between simulations and growth parameters (metric length and weight) for mussels in the lagoon. A heat wave scenario was also simulated using the DEB model, which highlighted mussel mortality periods during a period of high temperature.

  9. Computer software tool REALM for sustainable water allocation and management.

    PubMed

    Perera, B J C; James, B; Kularathna, M D U

    2005-12-01

    REALM (REsource ALlocation Model) is a generalised computer simulation package that models harvesting and bulk distribution of water resources within a water supply system. It is a modeling tool, which can be applied to develop specific water allocation models. Like other water resource simulation software tools, REALM uses mass-balance accounting at nodes, while the movement of water within carriers is subject to capacity constraints. It uses a fast network linear programming algorithm to optimise the water allocation within the network during each simulation time step, in accordance with user-defined operating rules. This paper describes the main features of REALM and provides potential users with an appreciation of its capabilities. In particular, it describes two case studies covering major urban and rural water supply systems. These case studies illustrate REALM's capabilities in the use of stochastically generated data in water supply planning and management, modelling of environmental flows, and assessing security of supply issues.

  10. Watershed modeling of dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand using a hydrological simulation Fortran program.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhijun; Kieffer, Janna M; Kingery, William L; Huddleston, David H; Hossain, Faisal

    2007-11-01

    Several inland water bodies in the St. Louis Bay watershed have been identified as being potentially impaired due to low level of dissolved oxygen (DO). In order to calculate the total maximum daily loads (TMDL), a standard watershed model supported by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF), was used to simulate water temperature, DO, and bio-chemical oxygen demand (BOD). Both point and non-point sources of BOD were included in watershed modeling. The developed model was calibrated at two time periods: 1978 to 1986 and 2000 to 2001 with simulated DO closely matched the observed data and captured the seasonal variations. The model represented the general trend and average condition of observed BOD. Water temperature and BOD decay are the major factors that affect DO simulation, whereas nutrient processes, including nitrification, denitrification, and phytoplankton cycle, have slight impacts. The calibrated water quality model provides a representative linkage between the sources of BOD and in-stream DO\\BOD concentrations. The developed input parameters in this research could be extended to similar coastal watersheds for TMDL determination and Best Management Practice (BMP) evaluation.

  11. Multiscale Mathematics for Biomass Conversion to Renewable Hydrogen

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Plechac, Petr; Vlachos, Dionisios; Katsoulakis, Markos

    2013-09-05

    The overall objective of this project is to develop multiscale models for understanding and eventually designing complex processes for renewables. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first attempt at modeling complex reacting systems, whose performance relies on underlying multiscale mathematics. Our specific application lies at the heart of biofuels initiatives of DOE and entails modeling of catalytic systems, to enable economic, environmentally benign, and efficient conversion of biomass into either hydrogen or valuable chemicals. Specific goals include: (i) Development of rigorous spatio-temporal coarse-grained kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) mathematics and simulation for microscopic processes encountered in biomassmore » transformation. (ii) Development of hybrid multiscale simulation that links stochastic simulation to a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) model for an entire reactor. (iii) Development of hybrid multiscale simulation that links KMC simulation with quantum density functional theory (DFT) calculations. (iv) Development of parallelization of models of (i)-(iii) to take advantage of Petaflop computing and enable real world applications of complex, multiscale models. In this NCE period, we continued addressing these objectives and completed the proposed work. Main initiatives, key results, and activities are outlined.« less

  12. Urban Flow and Pollutant Dispersion Simulation with Multi-scale coupling of Meteorological Model with Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yushi; Poh, Hee Joo

    2014-11-01

    The Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis has become increasingly important in modern urban planning in order to create highly livable city. This paper presents a multi-scale modeling methodology which couples Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with open source CFD simulation tool, OpenFOAM. This coupling enables the simulation of the wind flow and pollutant dispersion in urban built-up area with high resolution mesh. In this methodology meso-scale model WRF provides the boundary condition for the micro-scale CFD model OpenFOAM. The advantage is that the realistic weather condition is taken into account in the CFD simulation and complexity of building layout can be handled with ease by meshing utility of OpenFOAM. The result is validated against the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Tests in Oklahoma City and there is reasonably good agreement between the CFD simulation and field observation. The coupling of WRF- OpenFOAM provide urban planners with reliable environmental modeling tool in actual urban built-up area; and it can be further extended with consideration of future weather conditions for the scenario studies on climate change impact.

  13. Teaching undergraduate nursing students about environmental health: addressing public health issues through simulation.

    PubMed

    Stanley, Mary Jo; Rojas, Deb

    2014-01-01

    Schools of nursing are challenged to find clinical placements in public health settings. Use of simulation can address situations unique to public health, with attention to specific concerns, such as environmental health. Environmental health is an integral part of public health nursing and is a standard of professional practice. Current simulations focus on acute care situations, offering limited scenarios with a public health perspective and excluding environmental health. This study's simulation scenario was created to enhance nursing students' understanding of public health concepts within an environmental health context. Outcomes from the simulation include the need for integration of environmental issues in public health teaching. Students stated that this scenario provided a broader understanding of the environmental influences that can affect the client's and family's health. This scenario fills a void in simulation content, while providing an interactive teaching and learning strategy to help students to apply knowledge to practice. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

  14. Neoproterozoic 'snowball Earth' simulations with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model.

    PubMed

    Hyde, W T; Crowley, T J; Baum, S K; Peltier, W R

    2000-05-25

    Ice sheets may have reached the Equator in the late Proterozoic era (600-800 Myr ago), according to geological and palaeomagnetic studies, possibly resulting in a 'snowball Earth'. But this period was a critical time in the evolution of multicellular animals, posing the question of how early life survived under such environmental stress. Here we present computer simulations of this unusual climate stage with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model. To simulate a snowball Earth, we use only a reduction in the solar constant compared to present-day conditions and we keep atmospheric CO2 concentrations near present levels. We find rapid transitions into and out of full glaciation that are consistent with the geological evidence. When we combine these results with a general circulation model, some of the simulations result in an equatorial belt of open water that may have provided a refugium for multicellular animals.

  15. Numerical simulation for the air entrainment of aerated flow with an improved multiphase SPH model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, Hang; Li, Ran; Pu, Xunchi; Zhang, Hongwei; Feng, Jingjie

    2017-11-01

    Aerated flow is a complex hydraulic phenomenon that exists widely in the field of environmental hydraulics. It is generally characterised by large deformation and violent fragmentation of the free surface. Compared to Euler methods (volume of fluid (VOF) method or rigid-lid hypothesis method), the existing single-phase Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method has performed well for solving particle motion. A lack of research on interphase interaction and air concentration, however, has affected the application of SPH model. In our study, an improved multiphase SPH model is presented to simulate aeration flows. A drag force was included in the momentum equation to ensure accuracy of the air particle slip velocity. Furthermore, a calculation method for air concentration is developed to analyse the air entrainment characteristics. Two studies were used to simulate the hydraulic and air entrainment characteristics. And, compared with the experimental results, the simulation results agree with the experimental results well.

  16. Utility of Emulation and Simulation Computer Modeling of Space Station Environmental Control and Life Support Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yanosy, James L.

    1988-01-01

    Over the years, computer modeling has been used extensively in many disciplines to solve engineering problems. A set of computer program tools is proposed to assist the engineer in the various phases of the Space Station program from technology selection through flight operations. The development and application of emulation and simulation transient performance modeling tools for life support systems are examined. The results of the development and the demonstration of the utility of three computer models are presented. The first model is a detailed computer model (emulation) of a solid amine water desorbed (SAWD) CO2 removal subsystem combined with much less detailed models (simulations) of a cabin, crew, and heat exchangers. This model was used in parallel with the hardware design and test of this CO2 removal subsystem. The second model is a simulation of an air revitalization system combined with a wastewater processing system to demonstrate the capabilities to study subsystem integration. The third model is that of a Space Station total air revitalization system. The station configuration consists of a habitat module, a lab module, two crews, and four connecting nodes.

  17. Research on monocentric model of urbanization by agent-based simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Ling; Yang, Kaizhong

    2008-10-01

    Over the past years, GIS have been widely used for modeling urbanization from a variety of perspectives such as digital terrain representation and overlay analysis using cell-based data platform. Similarly, simulation of urban dynamics has been achieved with the use of Cellular Automata. In contrast to these approaches, agent-based simulation provides a much more powerful set of tools. This allows researchers to set up a counterpart for real environmental and urban systems in computer for experimentation and scenario analysis. This Paper basically reviews the research on the economic mechanism of urbanization and an agent-based monocentric model is setup for further understanding the urbanization process and mechanism in China. We build an endogenous growth model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development by using agent-based simulation. It simulates the migration decisions of two main types of agents, namely rural and urban households between rural and urban area. The model contains multiple economic interactions that are crucial in understanding urbanization and industrial process in China. These adaptive agents can adjust their supply and demand according to the market situation by a learning algorithm. The simulation result shows this agent-based urban model is able to perform the regeneration and to produce likely-to-occur projections of reality.

  18. POMICS: A Simulation Disease Model for Timing Fungicide Applications in Management of Powdery Mildew of Cucurbits.

    PubMed

    Sapak, Z; Salam, M U; Minchinton, E J; MacManus, G P V; Joyce, D C; Galea, V J

    2017-09-01

    A weather-based simulation model, called Powdery Mildew of Cucurbits Simulation (POMICS), was constructed to predict fungicide application scheduling to manage powdery mildew of cucurbits. The model was developed on the principle that conditions favorable for Podosphaera xanthii, a causal pathogen of this crop disease, generate a number of infection cycles in a single growing season. The model consists of two components that (i) simulate the disease progression of P. xanthii in secondary infection cycles under natural conditions and (ii) predict the disease severity with application of fungicides at any recurrent disease cycles. The underlying environmental factors associated with P. xanthii infection were quantified from laboratory and field studies, and also gathered from literature. The performance of the POMICS model when validated with two datasets of uncontrolled natural infection was good (the mean difference between simulated and observed disease severity on a scale of 0 to 5 was 0.02 and 0.05). In simulations, POMICS was able to predict high- and low-risk disease alerts. Furthermore, the predicted disease severity was responsive to the number of fungicide applications. Such responsiveness indicates that the model has the potential to be used as a tool to guide the scheduling of judicious fungicide applications.

  19. Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Emmerik, T. H. M.; Li, Z.; Sivapalan, M.; Pande, S.; Kandasamy, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Chanan, A.; Vigneswaran, S.

    2014-10-01

    Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered on the Murrumbidgee River basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different stages of basin-scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized, quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to mimic and explain dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution: reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a competition between human "productive" and environmental "restorative" forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous, i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness, respectively. Sensitivity analysis carried out with the model further reveals that socio-hydrologic modeling can be used as a tool to explain or gain insight into observed co-evolutionary dynamics of diverse human-water coupled systems. This paper therefore contributes to the ultimate development of a generic modeling framework that can be applied to human-water coupled systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings.

  20. Vulnerability to changes in malaria transmission due to climate change in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    Malaria transmission in West Africa is strongly tied to climate; temperature affects the development rate of the malaria parasite, as well as the survival of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease, and rainfall is tied to mosquito abundance, as the vector lays its eggs in rain-fed water pools. As a result, the environmental suitability for malaria transmission in this region is expected to change as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. The vulnerability to changes in transmission varies throughout West Africa. Areas where malaria prevalence is already very high will be less sensitive to changes in transmission. Increases in environmental suitability for malaria transmission in the most arid regions may still be insufficient to allow sustained transmission. However, areas were malaria transmission currently occurs at low levels are expected to be the most sensitive to changes in environmental suitability for transmission. Here, we use data on current environment and malaria transmission rates to highlight areas in West Africa that we expect to be most vulnerable to an increase in malaria under certain climate conditions. We then analyze climate predictions from global climate models in vulnerable areas, and make predictions for the expected change in environmental suitability for malaria transmission using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a mechanistic model developed to simulate village-scale response of malaria transmission to environmental variables in West Africa.

  1. Comparison of APSIM and DNDC simulations of nitrogen transformations and N2O emissions.

    PubMed

    Vogeler, I; Giltrap, D; Cichota, R

    2013-11-01

    Various models have been developed to better understand nitrogen (N) cycling in soils, which is governed by a complex interaction of physical, chemical and biological factors. Two process-based models, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) and DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC), were used to simulate nitrification, denitrification and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soils following N input from either fertiliser or excreta deposition. The effect of environmental conditions on N transformations as simulated by the two different models was compared. Temperature had a larger effect in APSIM on nitrification, whereas in DNDC, water content produced a larger response. In contrast, simulated denitrification showed a larger response to temperature and also organic carbon content in DNDC. And while denitrification in DNDC is triggered by rainfall ≥5mm/h, in APSIM, the driving factor is soil water content, with a trigger point at water content at field capacity. The two models also showed different responses to N load, with nearly linearly increasing N2O emission rates with N load simulated by DNDC, and a lower rate by APSIM. Increasing rainfall intensity decreased APSIM-simulated N2O emissions but increased those simulated by DNDC. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Abiotic/biotic coupling in the rhizosphere: a reactive transport modeling analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lawrence, Corey R.; Steefel, Carl; Maher, Kate

    2014-01-01

    A new generation of models is needed to adequately simulate patterns of soil biogeochemical cycling in response changing global environmental drivers. For example, predicting the influence of climate change on soil organic matter storage and stability requires models capable of addressing complex biotic/abiotic interactions of rhizosphere and weathering processes. Reactive transport modeling provides a powerful framework simulating these interactions and the resulting influence on soil physical and chemical characteristics. Incorporation of organic reactions in an existing reactive transport model framework has yielded novel insights into soil weathering and development but much more work is required to adequately capture root and microbial dynamics in the rhizosphere. This endeavor provides many advantages over traditional soil biogeochemical models but also many challenges.

  3. Stochastic Partial Differential Equation Solver for Hydroacoustic Modeling: Improvements to Paracousti Sound Propagation Solver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Preston, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices offer a clean, renewable alternative energy source for the future. Responsible utilization of MHK devices, however, requires that the effects of acoustic noise produced by these devices on marine life and marine-related human activities be well understood. Paracousti is a 3-D full waveform acoustic modeling suite that can accurately propagate MHK noise signals in the complex bathymetry found in the near-shore to open ocean environment and considers real properties of the seabed, water column, and air-surface interface. However, this is a deterministic simulation that assumes the environment and source are exactly known. In reality, environmental and source characteristics are often only known in a statistical sense. Thus, to fully characterize the expected noise levels within the marine environment, this uncertainty in environmental and source factors should be incorporated into the acoustic simulations. One method is to use Monte Carlo (MC) techniques where simulation results from a large number of deterministic solutions are aggregated to provide statistical properties of the output signal. However, MC methods can be computationally prohibitive since they can require tens of thousands or more simulations to build up an accurate representation of those statistical properties. An alternative method, using the technique of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE), allows computation of the statistical properties of output signals at a small fraction of the computational cost of MC. We are developing a SPDE solver for the 3-D acoustic wave propagation problem called Paracousti-UQ to help regulators and operators assess the statistical properties of environmental noise produced by MHK devices. In this presentation, we present the SPDE method and compare statistical distributions of simulated acoustic signals in simple models to MC simulations to show the accuracy and efficiency of the SPDE method. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

  4. Fluid dynamics in flexible tubes: An application to the study of the pulmonary circulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuchar, N. R.

    1971-01-01

    Based on an analysis of unsteady, viscous flow through distensible tubes, a lumped-parameter model for the dynamics of blood flow through the pulmonary vascular bed was developed. The model is nonlinear, incorporating the variation of flow resistance with transmural pressure. Solved using a hybrid computer, the model yields information concerning the time-dependent behavior of blood pressures, flow rates, and volumes in each important class of vessels in each lobe of each lung in terms of the important physical and environmental parameters. Simulations of twenty abnormal or pathological situations of interest in environmental physiology and clinical medicine were performed. The model predictions agree well with physiological data.

  5. Application of tissue time course data to elucidate mechanistic details of carbon tetrachloride (CC14) transport using an updated physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in rats

    EPA Science Inventory

    CCl4 is a common environmental contaminant in water and superfund sites, and a model liver toxicant. One application of PBPK models used in risk assessment is simulation of internal dose for the metric involved with toxicity, particularly for different routes of exposure. Time-co...

  6. Environmental and economic comparisons of manure application methods in farming systems.

    PubMed

    Rotz, C A; Kleinman, P J A; Dell, C J; Veith, T L; Beegle, D B

    2011-01-01

    Alternative methods for applying livestock manure to no-till soils involve environmental and economic trade-offs. A process-level farm simulation model (Integrated Farm System Model) was used to evaluate methods for applying liquid dairy (Bos taurus L.) and swine (Sus scrofa L.) manure, including no application, broadcast spreading with and without incorporation by tillage, band application with soil aeration, and shallow disk injection. The model predicted ammonia emissions, nitrate leaching, and phosphorus (P) runoff losses similar to those measured over 4 yr of field trials. Each application method was simulated over 25 yr of weather on three Pennsylvania farms. On a swine and cow-calf beef operation under grass production, shallow disk injection increased profit by $340 yr(-1) while reducing ammonia nitrogen and soluble P losses by 48 and 70%, respectively. On a corn (Zea mays L.)-and-grass-based grazing dairy farm, shallow disk injection reduced ammonia loss by 21% and soluble P loss by 76% with little impact on farm profit. Incorporation by tillage and band application with aeration provided less environmental benefit with a net decrease in farm profit. On a large corn-and-alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)-based dairy farm where manure nutrients were available in excess of crop needs, incorporation methods were not economically beneficial, but they provided environmental benefits with relatively low annual net costs ($13 to $18 cow). In all farming systems, shallow disk injection provided the greatest environmental benefit at the least cost or greatest profit for the producer. With these results, producers are better informed when selecting manure application equipment.

  7. Environmental effects of magmatic sulfur emitted by large-scale flood basalt eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, A.; Skeffington, R.; Thordarson, T.; Self, S.; Forster, P.; Rap, A.; Ridgwell, A.; Fowler, D.; Wilson, M.; Mann, G.; Wignall, P.; Carslaw, K. S.

    2015-12-01

    Continental flood basalt (CFB) volcanism has been temporally, and therefore causally, linked to periods of environmental crisis in the past 260 Ma. The majority of the proposed causal relationships are, however, qualitative, in particular the potential climatic and environmental effects of large amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted to the atmosphere. CFB provinces are typically formed by numerous individual eruptions, each lasting years to decades, with highly uncertain periods of quiescence lasting hundreds to thousands of years. I will present results obtained from a global aerosol-climate model set-up to simulate the sulfur-induced climatic and environmental effects of individual decade to century-long CFB eruptions. For sulfur dioxide emissions representative of a single decade-long eruption in the 65 Ma Deccan Trap Volcanic Province, the model predicts a substantial reduction in global surface temperature of 4.5 K, which is in good agreement with multi-proxy palaeo-temperature records. However, the calculated cooling is short-lived and temperatures recover within less than 50 years once volcanic activity ceases. In contrast to previous studies, I show that acid rain from decade-long eruptions cannot cause widespread vegetation stress or loss due to the buffering capacities of soils. The direct exposure of vegetation to acid mists and fogs, however, could cause damage where the exposure is high and sustained, such as at high elevations. Finally, I will use these modeling results to place constraints on the likely environmental effects and habitability by simulating different eruption frequencies and durations as well as hiatus periods and by comparing to the proxy records.

  8. A Physics-Inspired Mechanistic Model of Migratory Movement Patterns in Birds.

    PubMed

    Revell, Christopher; Somveille, Marius

    2017-08-29

    In this paper, we introduce a mechanistic model of migratory movement patterns in birds, inspired by ideas and methods from physics. Previous studies have shed light on the factors influencing bird migration but have mainly relied on statistical correlative analysis of tracking data. Our novel method offers a bottom up explanation of population-level migratory movement patterns. It differs from previous mechanistic models of animal migration and enables predictions of pathways and destinations from a given starting location. We define an environmental potential landscape from environmental data and simulate bird movement within this landscape based on simple decision rules drawn from statistical mechanics. We explore the capacity of the model by qualitatively comparing simulation results to the non-breeding migration patterns of a seabird species, the Black-browed Albatross (Thalassarche melanophris). This minimal, two-parameter model was able to capture remarkably well the previously documented migration patterns of the Black-browed Albatross, with the best combination of parameter values conserved across multiple geographically separate populations. Our physics-inspired mechanistic model could be applied to other bird and highly-mobile species, improving our understanding of the relative importance of various factors driving migration and making predictions that could be useful for conservation.

  9. Exploring coral reef responses to millennial-scale climatic forcings: insights from the 1-D numerical tool pyReef-Core v1.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salles, Tristan; Pall, Jodie; Webster, Jody M.; Dechnik, Belinda

    2018-06-01

    Assemblages of corals characterise specific reef biozones and the environmental conditions that change spatially across a reef and with depth. Drill cores through fossil reefs record the time and depth distribution of assemblages, which captures a partial history of the vertical growth response of reefs to changing palaeoenvironmental conditions. The effects of environmental factors on reef growth are well understood on ecological timescales but are poorly constrained at centennial to geological timescales. pyReef-Core is a stratigraphic forward model designed to solve the problem of unobservable environmental processes controlling vertical reef development by simulating the physical, biological and sedimentological processes that determine vertical assemblage changes in drill cores. It models the stratigraphic development of coral reefs at centennial to millennial timescales under environmental forcing conditions including accommodation (relative sea-level upward growth), oceanic variability (flow speed, nutrients, pH and temperature), sediment input and tectonics. It also simulates competitive coral assemblage interactions using the generalised Lotka-Volterra system of equations (GLVEs) and can be used to infer the influence of environmental conditions on the zonation and vertical accretion and stratigraphic succession of coral assemblages over decadal timescales and greater. The tool can quantitatively test carbonate platform development under the influence of ecological and environmental processes and efficiently interpret vertical growth and karstification patterns observed in drill cores. We provide two realistic case studies illustrating the basic capabilities of the model and use it to reconstruct (1) the Holocene history (from 8500 years to present) of coral community responses to environmental changes and (2) the evolution of an idealised coral reef core since the last interglacial (from 140 000 years to present) under the influence of sea-level change, subsidence and karstification. We find that the model reproduces the details of the formation of existing coral reef stratigraphic sequences both in terms of assemblages succession, accretion rates and depositional thicknesses. It can be applied to estimate the impact of changing environmental conditions on growth rates and patterns under many different settings and initial conditions.

  10. Modeling Radionuclide Decay Chain Migration Using HYDROGEOCHEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, T. C.; Tsai, C. H.; Lai, K. H.; Chen, J. S.

    2014-12-01

    Nuclear technology has been employed for energy production for several decades. Although people receive many benefits from nuclear energy, there are inevitably environmental pollutions as well as human health threats posed by the radioactive materials releases from nuclear waste disposed in geological repositories or accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear facilities. Theoretical studies have been undertaken to understand the transport of radionuclides in subsurface environments because that the radionuclide transport in groundwater is one of the main pathway in exposure scenarios for the intake of radionuclides. The radionuclide transport in groundwater can be predicted using analytical solution as well as numerical models. In this study, we simulate the transport of the radionuclide decay chain using HYDROGEOCHEM. The simulated results are verified against the analytical solution available in the literature. Excellent agreements between the numerical simulation and the analytical are observed for a wide spectrum of concentration. HYDROGECHEM is a useful tool assessing the ecological and environmental impact of the accidental radionuclide releases such as the Fukushima nuclear disaster where multiple radionuclides leaked through the reactor, subsequently contaminating the local groundwater and ocean seawater in the vicinity of the nuclear plant.

  11. Application of a water/ecosystem model, VELMA, to inform environmental management decision-making in the watersheds of Keene and Kingsbury Creeks

    EPA Science Inventory

    VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments) is an eco-hydrological model that produces visual simulations of many hydrologic and ecological processes over time periods from hours to days to years. The purpose thus far has been used for predicting effectiveness of g...

  12. Participatory Systems Modeling to Explore Sustainable Solutions: Triple Value Simulation Modeling Cases Tackle Nutrient and Watershed Management from a Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) perspective

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decision makers often need assistance in understanding dynamic interactions and linkages among economic, environmental and social systems in coastal watersheds. They also need scientific input to better evaluate potential costs and benefits of alternative policy interventions. Th...

  13. GLIMPSE: A GCAM-USA-based tool for supporting coordinated energy and environmental planning

    EPA Science Inventory

    GCAM-USA is an integrated assessment model, meaning that it simulates the interactions among human and earth systems. GCAM-USA is derived from GCAM, which represents the U.S. as one region within a 32-region global model. GCAM-USA subdivides the U.S. region into 50 states and the...

  14. 78 FR 70516 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; North Carolina: Non-Interference Demonstration...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-26

    ... AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to... Emissions Simulator (MOVES) and NONROAD2008 models which are the most current versions of modeling systems... Area from those areas subject to the 7.8 psi Federal RVP requirements, such action will occur in a...

  15. Understanding Methane Emission from Natural Gas Activities Using Inverse Modeling Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdioskouei, M.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2015-12-01

    Natural gas (NG) has been promoted as a bridge fuel that can smooth the transition from fossil fuels to zero carbon energy sources by having lower carbon dioxide emission and lower global warming impacts in comparison to other fossil fuels. However, the uncertainty around the estimations of methane emissions from NG systems can lead to underestimation of climate and environmental impacts of using NG as a replacement for coal. Accurate estimates of methane emissions from NG operations is crucial for evaluation of environmental impacts of NG extraction and at larger scale, adoption of NG as transitional fuel. However there is a great inconsistency within the current estimates. Forward simulation of methane from oil and gas operation sites for the US is carried out based on NEI-2011 using the WRF-Chem model. Simulated values are compared against measurements of observations from different platforms such as airborne (FRAPPÉ field campaign) and ground-based measurements (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory). A novel inverse modeling technique is used in this work to improve the model fit to the observation values and to constrain methane emission from oil and gas extraction sites.

  16. Spatially distributed modelling of pesticide leaching at European scale with the PyCatch modelling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmitz, Oliver; van der Perk, Marcel; Karssenberg, Derek; Häring, Tim; Jene, Bernhard

    2017-04-01

    The modelling of pesticide transport through the soil and estimating its leaching to groundwater is essential for an appropriate environmental risk assessment. Pesticide leaching models commonly used in regulatory processes often lack the capability of providing a comprehensive spatial view, as they are implemented as non-spatial point models or only use a few combinations of representative soils to simulate specific plots. Furthermore, their handling of spatial input and output data and interaction with available Geographical Information Systems tools is limited. Therefore, executing several scenarios simulating and assessing the potential leaching on national or continental scale at high resolution is rather inefficient and prohibits the straightforward identification of areas prone to leaching. We present a new pesticide leaching model component of the PyCatch framework developed in PCRaster Python, an environmental modelling framework tailored to the development of spatio-temporal models (http://www.pcraster.eu). To ensure a feasible computational runtime of large scale models, we implemented an elementary field capacity approach to model soil water. Currently implemented processes are evapotranspiration, advection, dispersion, sorption, degradation and metabolite transformation. Not yet implemented relevant additional processes such as surface runoff, snowmelt, erosion or other lateral flows can be integrated with components already implemented in PyCatch. A preliminary version of the model executes a 20-year simulation of soil water processes for Germany (20 soil layers, 1 km2 spatial resolution, and daily timestep) within half a day using a single CPU. A comparison of the soil moisture and outflow obtained from the PCRaster implementation and PELMO, a commonly used pesticide leaching model, resulted in an R2 of 0.98 for the FOCUS Hamburg scenario. We will further discuss the validation of the pesticide transport processes and show case studies applied to European countries.

  17. Development and application of the microbial fate and transport module for the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, E.; Park, Y.; Muirhead, R.; Jeong, J.; Pachepsky, Y. A.

    2017-12-01

    Pathogenic microorganisms in recreational and irrigation waters remain the subject of concern. Water quality models are used to estimate microbial quality of water sources, to evaluate microbial contamination-related risks, to guide the microbial water quality monitoring, and to evaluate the effect of agricultural management on the microbial water quality. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) is the watershed-scale water quality model that includes highly detailed representation of agricultural management. The APEX currently does not have microbial fate and transport simulation capabilities. The objective of this work was to develop the first APEX microbial fate and transport module that could use the APEX conceptual model of manure removal together with recently introduced conceptualizations of the in-stream microbial fate and transport. The module utilizes manure erosion rates found in the APEX. Bacteria survival in soil-manure mixing layer was simulated with the two-stage survival model. Individual survival patterns were simulated for each manure application date. Simulated in-stream microbial fate and transport processes included the reach-scale passive release of bacteria with resuspended bottom sediment during high flow events, the transport of bacteria from bottom sediment due to the hyporheic exchange during low flow periods, the deposition with settling sediment, and the two-stage survival. Default parameter values were available from recently published databases. The APEX model with the newly developed microbial fate and transport module was applied to simulate seven years of monitoring data for the Toenepi watershed in New Zealand. Based on calibration and testing results, the APEX with the microbe module reproduced well the monitored pattern of E. coli concentrations at the watershed outlet. The APEX with the microbial fate and transport module will be utilized for predicting microbial quality of water under various agricultural practices, evaluating monitoring protocols, and supporting the selection of management practices based on regulations that rely on fecal indicator bacteria concentrations.

  18. Modeling and simulation of temperature effect in polycrystalline silicon PV cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcu, M.; Niculescu, T.; Slusariuc, R. I.; Popescu, F. G.

    2016-06-01

    Due to the human needs of energy, there is a need to apply new technologies in energy conversion to supply the demand of clean and cheap energy in the context of environmental issues. Renewable energy sources like solar energy has one of the highest potentials. In this paper, solar panel is the key part of a photovoltaic system which converts solar energy to electrical energy. The purpose of this paper is to give a MATLAB/ Simulink simulation for photovoltaic module based on the one-diode model of a photovoltaic cell made of polycrystalline silicon. This model reveals the effect of the ambient temperature and the heating of the panel due to the solar infrared radiation. Also the measurements on the solar cell exposed to solar radiation can confirm the simulation.

  19. Using Data Warehouses to extract knowledge from Agro-Hydrological simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouadi, Tassadit; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Cordier, Marie-Odile; Quiniou, René; Moreau, Pierre

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, simulation models have been used more and more in hydrology to test the effect of scenarios and help stakeholders in decision making. Agro-hydrological models have oriented agricultural water management, by testing the effect of landscape structure and farming system changes on water and chemical emission in rivers. Such models generate a large amount of data while few of them, such as daily concentrations at the outlet of the catchment, or annual budgets regarding soil, water and atmosphere emissions, are stored and analyzed. Thus, a great amount of information is lost from the simulation process. This is due to the large volumes of simulated data, but also to the difficulties in analyzing and transforming the data in an usable information. In this talk we illustrate a data warehouse which has been built to store and manage simulation data coming from the agro-hydrological model TNT (Topography-based nitrogen transfer and transformations, (Beaujouan et al., 2002)). This model simulates the transfer and transformation of nitrogen in agricultural catchments. TNT was used over 10 years on the Yar catchment (western France), a 50 km2 square area which present a detailed data set and have to facing to environmental issue (coastal eutrophication). 44 output key simulated variables are stored at a daily time step, i.e, 8 GB of storage size, which allows the users to explore the N emission in space and time, to quantify all the processes of transfer and transformation regarding the cropping systems, their location within the catchment, the emission in water and atmosphere, and finally to get new knowledge and help in making specific and detailed decision in space and time. We present the dimensional modeling process of the Nitrogen in catchment data warehouse (i.e. the snowflake model). After identifying the set of multileveled dimensions with complex hierarchical structures and relationships among related dimension levels, we chose the snowflake model to design our agri-environmental data warehouse. The snowflake schema is required for flexible querying complex dimension relationships. We have designed the Nitrogen in catchment data warehouse using the open source Business Intelligence Platform Pentaho Version 3.5. We use the online analytical processing (OLAP) to access and exploit, intuitively and quickly, the multidimensional and aggregated data from the Nitrogen in catchment data warehouse. We illustrate how the data warehouse can be efficiently used to explore spatio-temporal dimensions and to discover new knowledge and enrich the exploitation level of simulations. We show how the OLAP tool can be used to provide the user with the ability to synthesize environmental information and to understand nitrates emission in surface water by using comparative, personalized views on historical data. To perform advanced analyses that aim to find meaningful patterns and relationships in the data, the Nitrogen in catchment data warehouse should be extended with data mining or information retrieval methods as Skyline queries (Bouadi et al., 2012). (Beaujouan et al., 2002) Beaujouan, V., Durand, P., Ruiz, L., Aurousseau, P., and Cotteret, G. (2002). A hydrological model dedicated to topography-based simulation of nitrogen transfer and transformation: rationale and application to the geomorphology denitrification relationship. Hydrological Processes, pages 493-507. (Bouadi et al., 2012) Bouadi, T., Cordier, M., and Quiniou, R. (2012). Incremental computation of skyline queries with dynamic preferences. In DEXA (1), pages 219-233.

  20. A generic multibody simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hopping, K. A.; Kohn, W.

    1986-01-01

    Described is a dynamic simulation package which can be configured for orbital test scenarios involving multiple bodies. The rotational and translational state integration methods are selectable for each individual body and may be changed during a run if necessary. Characteristics of the bodies are determined by assigning components consisting of mass properties, forces, and moments, which are the outputs of user-defined environmental models. Generic model implementation is facilitated by a transformation processor which performs coordinate frame inversions. Transformations are defined in the initialization file as part of the simulation configuration. The simulation package includes an initialization processor, which consists of a command line preprocessor, a general purpose grammar, and a syntax scanner. These permit specifications of the bodies, their interrelationships, and their initial states in a format that is not dependent on a particular test scenario.

  1. Computational Simulation of the Formation and Material Behavior of Ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.; Singhal, Surendra N.; Chamis, Christos C.

    1994-01-01

    Computational methods are described for simulating the formation and the material behavior of ice in prevailing transient environments. The methodology developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center was adopted. A three dimensional finite-element heat transfer analyzer was used to predict the thickness of ice formed under prevailing environmental conditions. A multi-factor interaction model for simulating the material behavior of time-variant ice layers is presented. The model, used in conjunction with laminated composite mechanics, updates the material properties of an ice block as its thickness increases with time. A sample case of ice formation in a body of water was used to demonstrate the methodology. The results showed that the formation and the material behavior of ice can be computationally simulated using the available composites technology.

  2. Scenario Development Process at the Vertical Motion Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reardon, Scott E.; Beard, Steven D.; Lewis, Emily

    2017-01-01

    There has been a significant effort within the simulation community to standardize many aspects of flight simulation. More recently, an effort has begun to develop a formal scenario definition language for aviation. A working group within the AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has been created to develop a standard aviation scenario definition language, though much of the initial effort has been tailored to training simulators. Research and development (R&D) simulators, like the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), and training simulators have different missions and thus have different scenario requirements. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the unique tasks and scenario elements used at the VMS so they may be captured by scenario standardization efforts. The VMS most often performs handling qualities studies and transfer of training studies. Three representative handling qualities simulation studies and two transfer of training simulation studies are described in this paper. Unique scenario elements discussed in this paper included special out-the-window (OTW) targets and environmental conditions, motion system parameters, active inceptor parameters, and configurable vehicle math model parameters.

  3. Pre-engineering Spaceflight Validation of Environmental Models and the 2005 HZETRN Simulation Code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nealy, John E.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.; Badavi, Francis F.; Dachev, Ts. P.; Tomov, B. T.; Walker, Steven A.; DeAngelis, Giovanni; Blattnig, Steve R.; Atwell, William

    2006-01-01

    The HZETRN code has been identified by NASA for engineering design in the next phase of space exploration highlighting a return to the Moon in preparation for a Mars mission. In response, a new series of algorithms beginning with 2005 HZETRN, will be issued by correcting some prior limitations and improving control of propagated errors along with established code verification processes. Code validation processes will use new/improved low Earth orbit (LEO) environmental models with a recently improved International Space Station (ISS) shield model to validate computational models and procedures using measured data aboard ISS. These validated models will provide a basis for flight-testing the designs of future space vehicles and systems of the Constellation program in the LEO environment.

  4. The meteorology of Gale crater as determined from rover environmental monitoring station observations and numerical modeling. Part I: Comparison of model simulations with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pla-Garcia, Jorge; Rafkin, Scot C. R.; Kahre, Melinda; Gomez-Elvira, Javier; Hamilton, Victoria E.; Navarro, Sara; Torres, Josefina; Marín, Mercedes; Vasavada, Ashwin R.

    2016-12-01

    Air temperature, ground temperature, pressure, and wind speed and direction data obtained from the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station onboard the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity are compared to data from the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. A full diurnal cycle at four different seasons (Ls 0, 90, 180 and 270) is investigated at the rover location within Gale crater, Mars. Model results are shown to be in good agreement with observations when considering the uncertainties in the observational data set. The good agreement provides justification for utilizing the model results to investigate the broader meteorological environment of the Gale crater region, which is described in the second, companion paper.

  5. MODELING THE INTERACTION OF AGROCHEMICALS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL SURFACES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The interactions between agrochemicals and organo-mineral surfaces were studied using molecular mechanical conformational calculations and molecular dynamics simulations. Atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine), 2,4-D (1, 2-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid), and DD...

  6. Agent-Based Model Simulating Pedestrian Behavioral Response to Environmental Structural Changes

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-12-01

    The authors' research focused on understanding the travel behavior of individuals in complex urban environments. Specifically, the authors investigated how land use patterns and infrastructure influence how individuals across a broad range of travel ...

  7. Environmental potentials of policy instruments to mitigate nutrient emissions in Chinese livestock production.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Chaohui; Liu, Yi; Bluemling, Bettina; Mol, Arthur P J; Chen, Jining

    2015-01-01

    To minimize negative environmental impact of livestock production, policy-makers face a challenge to design and implement more effective policy instruments for livestock farmers at different scales. This research builds an assessment framework on the basis of an agent-based model, named ANEM, to explore nutrient mitigation potentials of five policy instruments, using pig production in Zhongjiang county, southwest China, as the empirical filling. The effects of different policy scenarios are simulated and compared using four indicators and differentiating between small, medium and large scale pig farms. Technology standards, biogas subsidies and information provisioning prove to be the most effective policies, while pollution fees and manure markets fail to environmentally improve manure management in pig livestock farming. Medium-scale farms are the more relevant scale category for a more environmentally sound development of Chinese livestock production. A number of policy recommendations are formulated as conclusion, as well as some limitations and prospects of the simulations are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

    PubMed

    Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

    2008-11-07

    Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

  9. Numerical modelling of temporal and spatial patterns of petroleum hydrocarbons concentration in the Bohai Sea.

    PubMed

    Guo, Weijun; Wu, Guoxiang; Xu, Tiaojian; Li, Xueyan; Ren, Xiaozhong; Hao, Yanni

    2018-02-01

    The discharge of petroleum hydrocarbons (PHs; ~10,000tons annually) into the Bohai Sea, a shallow inland sea in China, presents a serious threat to the marine environment. To evaluate the effects of PHs pollution and estimate the corresponding environmental capacity, we have developed a genetic algorithm-based coupled hydrodynamic/transport for simulating PHs concentration evolution and distribution from July 2006 to October 2007, with the predicted values being in good agreement with monitoring results. Importantly, the mean PHs concentrations and seasonal concentration variations were primarily determined by external loading, i.e., currents were shown to drive PHs transport, reconfigure local PHs patterns, and increase PHs concentration in water masses, even at large distances from discharge sources. The developed model could realistically simulate PHs distribution and evolution, thus being a useful tool for estimating the seasonal environmental capacity of PHs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Source apportionment of exposures to volatile organic compounds. I. Evaluation of receptor models using simulated exposure data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Shelly L.; Anderson, Melissa J.; Daly, Eileen P.; Milford, Jana B.

    Four receptor-oriented source apportionment models were evaluated by applying them to simulated personal exposure data for select volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that were generated by Monte Carlo sampling from known source contributions and profiles. The exposure sources modeled are environmental tobacco smoke, paint emissions, cleaning and/or pesticide products, gasoline vapors, automobile exhaust, and wastewater treatment plant emissions. The receptor models analyzed are chemical mass balance, principal component analysis/absolute principal component scores, positive matrix factorization (PMF), and graphical ratio analysis for composition estimates/source apportionment by factors with explicit restriction, incorporated in the UNMIX model. All models identified only the major contributors to total exposure concentrations. PMF extracted factor profiles that most closely represented the major sources used to generate the simulated data. None of the models were able to distinguish between sources with similar chemical profiles. Sources that contributed <5% to the average total VOC exposure were not identified.

  11. Modeling Hydrodynamic Changes Due to Marine Hydrokinetic Power Production: Community Outreach and Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    James, S. C.; Jones, C.; Roberts, J.

    2013-12-01

    Power generation with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines is receiving growing global interest. Because of reasonable investment, maintenance, reliability, and environmental friendliness, this technology can contribute to national (and global) energy markets and is worthy of research investment. Furthermore, in remote areas, small-scale MHK energy from river, tidal, or ocean currents can provide a local power supply. The power-generating capacity of MHK turbines will depend, among other factors, upon the turbine type and number and the local flow velocities. There is an urgent need for deployment of practical, accessible tools and techniques to help the industry optimize MHK array layouts while establishing best sitting and design practices that minimize environmental impacts. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has modified the open-source flow and transport Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) to include the capability of simulating the effects of MHK power production. Upon removing energy (momentum) from the system, changes to the local and far-field flow dynamics can be estimated (e.g., flow speeds, tidal ranges, flushing rates, etc.). The effects of these changes on sediment dynamics and water quality can also be simulated using this model. Moreover, the model can be used to optimize MHK array layout to maximize power capture and minimize environmental impacts. Both a self-paced tutorial and in-depth training course have been developed as part of an outreach program to train academics, technology developers, and regulators in the use and application of this software. This work outlines SNL's outreach efforts using this modeling framework as applied to two specific sites where MHK turbines have been deployed.

  12. Coupled hydrologic and land use change models for decision making on land and water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yalew, Seleshi; van der Zaag, Pieter; Mul, Marloes; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Teferi, Ermias; van Griensven, Ann; van der Kwast, Johannes

    2013-04-01

    Hydrology of a basin, alongside climate change, is well documented to impact and to be impacted by land use/land cover change processes. The need to understand the impacts of hydrology on land use change and vice- versa cannot be overstated especially in basins such as the Upper Blue Nile in Ethiopia, where the vast majority of farmers depend on rain-fed agriculture. A slight fluctuation in rainy seasons or an increase or decrease in magnitude of precipitation can easily trigger drought or flooding. On the other hand, ever growing population and emerging economic development, among others, is likely to continually alter land use/land cover change, thereby affecting hydrological processes. With the intention of identifying and analyzing interactions and future scenarios of the hydrology and land use/land cover, we carried out a case study on a meso-scale catchment, in the Upper Blue Nile basin. A land use model using SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environments) was built for analyzing land use trends from aerial land cover photographs of 1957 and simulate until 2009 based on socio-economic as well as biophysical factors. Major land use drivers in the catchment were identified and used as input to the land use model. Separate land use maps were produced using Landsat images of 1972, 1986, 1994 and 2009 for historical calibration of the land use model. By the same token, a hydrological model for the same catchment was built using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. After calibration of the two independent models, they were loosely coupled for analyzing the changes in either of the models and impacts on the other. Among other details, the coupled model performed better in identifying limiting factors from both the hydrology as well as from the land use perspectives. For instance, the simulation of the uncoupled land use model alone (without inputs from SWAT on the water budget of each land use parcel) continually considered a land use type such as a wet land/marsh land, simply as a wetland until the simulation period finishes. The wetland or the marsh land, which is not crop friendly in the location, does not get allocated to any other land use such as for certain crop types or settlement, because the land use model cannot tell how much water is added to or drained from each parcel every season. However, the simulation feedback from the coupled hydrological model shows that certain wetland/marsh land parcels, in fact, hold less and less water or even dry up during the simulation period, thereby putting themselves as a good candidate to be picked by the land use model in a next time step and to be allocated to other land use types. The same way, a measure in the land use aspect, which considers socio-economic as well as biophysical driving forces of in the catchment, shows changes in runoff and sedimentation levels in SWAT model outputs. The results of a future scenario considering the continuing population growth projects that about 35% of the wetland dries up and gets converted to cultivation by 2020. This study emphasizes the importance of identifying possible impacts of the future hydrology on other components of the socio-environmental systems and contrariwise during environmental decision making, especially in areas where a relatively small change may have large impacts (such flood and/or drought prone basins as the Nile). The study also demonstrates a sound methodology for assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology and vice-versa by dynamically exchanging data through feedback mechanisms (coupling socio-environmental and hydrological models) which lead to a better understanding of socio-environmental problems. Keywords: Coupling, socio-environment, Nile, land use models, hydrological models

  13. A review of flight simulation techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baarspul, Max

    After a brief historical review of the evolution of flight simulation techniques, this paper first deals with the main areas of flight simulator applications. Next, it describes the main components of a piloted flight simulator. Because of the presence of the pilot-in-the-loop, the digital computer driving the simulator must solve the aircraft equations of motion in ‘real-time’. Solutions to meet the high required computer power of todays modern flight simulator are elaborated. The physical similarity between aircraft and simulator in cockpit layout, flight instruments, flying controls etc., is discussed, based on the equipment and environmental cue fidelity required for training and research simulators. Visual systems play an increasingly important role in piloted flight simulation. The visual systems now available and most widely used are described, where image generators and display devices will be distinguished. The characteristics of out-of-the-window visual simulation systems pertaining to the perceptual capabilities of human vision are discussed. Faithful reproduction of aircraft motion requires large travel, velocity and acceleration capabilities of the motion system. Different types and applications of motion systems in e.g. airline training and research are described. The principles of motion cue generation, based on the characteristics of the non-visual human motion sensors, are described. The complete motion system, consisting of the hardware and the motion drive software, is discussed. The principles of mathematical modelling of the aerodynamic, flight control, propulsion, landing gear and environmental characteristics of the aircraft are reviewed. An example of the identification of an aircraft mathematical model, based on flight and taxi tests, is presented. Finally, the paper deals with the hardware and software integration of the flight simulator components and the testing and acceptance of the complete flight simulator. Examples of the so-called ‘Computer Generated Checkout’ and ‘Proof of Match’ are presented. The concluding remarks briefly summarize the status of flight simulator technology and consider possibilities for future research.

  14. Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Adaptation Using Environmentally Predicted Traits.

    PubMed

    van Heerwaarden, Joost; van Zanten, Martijn; Kruijer, Willem

    2015-10-01

    Current methods for studying the genetic basis of adaptation evaluate genetic associations with ecologically relevant traits or single environmental variables, under the implicit assumption that natural selection imposes correlations between phenotypes, environments and genotypes. In practice, observed trait and environmental data are manifestations of unknown selective forces and are only indirectly associated with adaptive genetic variation. In theory, improved estimation of these forces could enable more powerful detection of loci under selection. Here we present an approach in which we approximate adaptive variation by modeling phenotypes as a function of the environment and using the predicted trait in multivariate and univariate genome-wide association analysis (GWAS). Based on computer simulations and published flowering time data from the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we find that environmentally predicted traits lead to higher recovery of functional loci in multivariate GWAS and are more strongly correlated to allele frequencies at adaptive loci than individual environmental variables. Our results provide an example of the use of environmental data to obtain independent and meaningful information on adaptive genetic variation.

  15. Linking 1D coastal ocean modelling to environmental management: an ensemble approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mussap, Giulia; Zavatarelli, Marco; Pinardi, Nadia

    2017-12-01

    The use of a one-dimensional interdisciplinary numerical model of the coastal ocean as a tool contributing to the formulation of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is explored. The focus is on the definition of an experimental design based on ensemble simulations, integrating variability linked to scenarios (characterised by changes in the system forcing) and to the concurrent variation of selected, and poorly constrained, model parameters. The modelling system used was previously specifically designed for the use in "data-rich" areas, so that horizontal dynamics can be resolved by a diagnostic approach and external inputs can be parameterised by nudging schemes properly calibrated. Ensembles determined by changes in the simulated environmental (physical and biogeochemical) dynamics, under joint forcing and parameterisation variations, highlight the uncertainties associated to the application of specific scenarios that are relevant to EBM, providing an assessment of the reliability of the predicted changes. The work has been carried out by implementing the coupled modelling system BFM-POM1D in an area of Gulf of Trieste (northern Adriatic Sea), considered homogeneous from the point of view of hydrological properties, and forcing it by changing climatic (warming) and anthropogenic (reduction of the land-based nutrient input) pressure. Model parameters affected by considerable uncertainties (due to the lack of relevant observations) were varied jointly with the scenarios of change. The resulting large set of ensemble simulations provided a general estimation of the model uncertainties related to the joint variation of pressures and model parameters. The information of the model result variability aimed at conveying efficiently and comprehensibly the information on the uncertainties/reliability of the model results to non-technical EBM planners and stakeholders, in order to have the model-based information effectively contributing to EBM.

  16. Environmental Impacts of Large Scale Biochar Application Through Spatial Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huber, I.; Archontoulis, S.

    2017-12-01

    In an effort to study the environmental (emissions, soil quality) and production (yield) impacts of biochar application at regional scales we coupled the APSIM-Biochar model with the pSIMS parallel platform. So far the majority of biochar research has been concentrated on lab to field studies to advance scientific knowledge. Regional scale assessments are highly needed to assist decision making. The overall objective of this simulation study was to identify areas in the USA that have the most gain environmentally from biochar's application, as well as areas which our model predicts a notable yield increase due to the addition of biochar. We present the modifications in both APSIM biochar and pSIMS components that were necessary to facilitate these large scale model runs across several regions in the United States at a resolution of 5 arcminutes. This study uses the AgMERRA global climate data set (1980-2010) and the Global Soil Dataset for Earth Systems modeling as a basis for creating its simulations, as well as local management operations for maize and soybean cropping systems and different biochar application rates. The regional scale simulation analysis is in progress. Preliminary results showed that the model predicts that high quality soils (particularly those common to Iowa cropping systems) do not receive much, if any, production benefit from biochar. However, soils with low soil organic matter ( 0.5%) do get a noteworthy yield increase of around 5-10% in the best cases. We also found N2O emissions to be spatial and temporal specific; increase in some areas and decrease in some other areas due to biochar application. In contrast, we found increases in soil organic carbon and plant available water in all soils (top 30 cm) due to biochar application. The magnitude of these increases (% change from the control) were larger in soil with low organic matter (below 1.5%) and smaller in soils with high organic matter (above 3%) and also dependent on biochar application rate.

  17. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 2: Applications and assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2008-07-01

    To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3) and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately -11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to assessments of various global environmental projections such as climate change.

  18. Trait-based Modeling Reveals How Plankton Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function (BEF) Relationships Depend on Environmental Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, S. L.; Chen, B.; Vallina, S. M.

    2017-12-01

    Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function (BEF) relationships, which are most commonly quantified in terms of productivity or total biomass yield, are known to depend on the timescale of the experiment or field study, both for terrestrial plants and phytoplankton, which have each been widely studied as model ecosystems. Although many BEF relationships are positive (i.e., increasing biodiversity enhances function), in some cases there is an optimal intermediate diversity level (i.e., a uni-modal relationship), and in other cases productivity decreases with certain measures of biodiversity. These differences in BEF relationships cannot be reconciled merely by differences in the timescale of experiments. We will present results from simulation experiments applying recently developed trait-based models of phytoplankton communities and ecosystems, using the `adaptive dynamics' framework to represent continuous distributions of size and other key functional traits. Controlled simulation experiments were conducted with different levels of phytoplankton size-diversity, which through trait-size correlations implicitly represents functional-diversity. One recent study applied a theoretical box model for idealized simulations at different frequencies of disturbance. This revealed how the shapes of BEF relationships depend systematically on the frequency of disturbance and associated nutrient supply. We will also present more recent results obtained using a trait-based plankton ecosystem model embedded in a three-dimensional ocean model applied to the North Pacific. This reveals essentially the same pattern in a spatially explicit model with more realistic environmental forcing. In the relatively more variable subarctic, productivity tends to increase with the size (and hence functional) diversity of phytoplankton, whereas productivity tends to decrease slightly with increasing size-diversity in the relatively calm subtropics. Continuous trait-based models can capture essential features of BEF relationships, while requiring far fewer calculations compared to typical plankton diversity models that explicitly simulate a great many idealized species.

  19. Soil Carbon Residence Time in the Arctic - Potential Drivers of Past and Future Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Fisher, J.; Schwalm, C. R.; Hayes, D. J.; Stofferahn, E.; Hantson, W.; Schaefer, K. M.; Fang, Y.; Michalak, A. M.; Wei, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon residence time is one of the most important factors controlling carbon cycling in ecosystems. Residence time depends on carbon allocation and conversion among various carbon pools and the rate of organic matter decomposition; all of which rely on environmental conditions, primarily temperature and soil moisture. As a result, residence time is an emergent property of models and a strong determinant of terrestrial carbon storage capacity. However, residence time is poorly constrained in process-based models due, in part, to the lack of data with which to benchmark global-scale models in order to guide model improvements and, ultimately, reduce uncertainty in model projections. Here we focus on improving the understanding of the drivers to observed and simulated carbon residence time in the Arctic-Boreal region (ABR). Carbon-cycling in the ABR represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty in historical and future projections of land-atmosphere carbon dynamics. This uncertainty is depicted in the large spread of terrestrial biospheric model (TBM) estimates of carbon flux and ecosystem carbon pool size in this region. Recent efforts, such as the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), have increased the availability of spatially explicit in-situ and remotely sensed carbon and ecosystem focused data products in the ABR. Together with simulations from Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we use these observations to evaluate the ability of models to capture soil carbon stocks and changes in the ABR. Specifically, we compare simulated versus observed soil carbon residence times in order to evaluate the functional response and sensitivity of modeled soil carbon stocks to changes in key environmental drivers. Understanding how simulated carbon residence time compares with observations and what drives these differences is critical for improving projections of changing carbon dynamics in the ABR and globally.

  20. Advanced Environmental Barrier Coating Development for SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites: NASA's Perspectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Dongming

    2016-01-01

    This presentation reviews NASA environmental barrier coating (EBC) system development programs and the coating materials evolutions for protecting the SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites in order to meet the next generation engine performance requirements. The presentation focuses on several generations of NASA EBC systems, EBC-CMC component system technologies for SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite combustors and turbine airfoils, highlighting the temperature capability and durability improvements in simulated engine high heat flux, high pressure, high velocity, and with mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions. The current EBC development emphasis is placed on advanced NASA 2700F candidate environmental barrier coating systems for SiC/SiC CMCs, their performance benefits and design limitations in long-term operation and combustion environments. Major technical barriers in developing environmental barrier coating systems, the coating integrations with next generation CMCs having the improved environmental stability, erosion-impact resistance, and long-term fatigue-environment system durability performance are described. The research and development opportunities for advanced turbine airfoil environmental barrier coating systems by utilizing improved compositions, state-of-the-art processing methods, and simulated environment testing and durability modeling are discussed.

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