Impact of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesia rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayat, R.; Juniarti, MD; Ma’rufah, U.

2018-05-01

La Niña events are indicated by cooling SST in central and eastern equatorial Pacific. While La Niña Modoki occurrences are indicated by cooling SST in central Pacific and warming SST in western and eastern equatorial Pacific. These two events are influencing rainfall variability in several regions including Indonesia. The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesian rainfall variability. We found the Nino 3.4 index is highly correlated (r = -0.95) with Indonesian rainfall. Positive rainfall anomalies up to 200 mm/month occurred mostly in Indonesian region during La Niña events, but in DJF several areas of Sumatera, Kalimantan and eastern Indonesia tend to have negative rainfall. During La Niña Modoki events, positive rainfall anomaly (up to 50 mm/month) occurred in Sumatera Island, Kalimantan, Java and eastern Indonesia in DJF and up to 175 mm/month occurred only in Java Island in MAM season. La Niña events have strong cooling SST in central and eastern equatorial Pacific (-1.5°C) in DJF. While La Niña Modoki events warming SST occurred in western and eastern equatorial Pacific (0.75°C) and cooling SST in central Pacific (- 0.75°C) in DJF and MAM. Walker circulation in La Niña Modoki events (on DJF and MAM) showed strong convergence in eastern Pacific, and weak convergence in western Pacific (Indonesia).

Seasonal predictions of equatorial Atlantic SST in a low-resolution CGCM with surface heat flux correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippe, Tina; Greatbatch, Richard; Ding, Hui

2016-04-01

The dominant mode of interannual variability in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is the Atlantic Niño or Zonal Mode. Akin to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific sector, it is able to impact the climate both of the adjacent equatorial African continent and remote regions. Due to heavy biases in the mean state climate of the equatorial-to-subtropical Atlantic, however, most state-of-the-art coupled global climate models (CGCMs) are unable to realistically simulate equatorial Atlantic variability. In this study, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) is used to investigate the impact of a simple bias alleviation technique on the predictability of equatorial Atlantic SSTs. Two sets of seasonal forecasting experiments are performed: An experiment using the standard KCM (STD), and an experiment with additional surface heat flux correction (FLX) that efficiently removes the SST bias from simulations. Initial conditions for both experiments are generated by the KCM run in partially coupled mode, a simple assimilation technique that forces the KCM with observed wind stress anomalies and preserves SST as a fully prognostic variable. Seasonal predictions for both sets of experiments are run four times yearly for 1981-2012. Results: Heat flux correction substantially improves the simulated variability in the initialization runs for boreal summer and fall (June-October). In boreal spring (March-May), however, neither the initialization runs of the STD or FLX-experiments are able to capture the observed variability. FLX-predictions show no consistent enhancement of skill relative to the predictions of the STD experiment over the course of the year. The skill of persistence forecasts is hardly beat by either of the two experiments in any season, limiting the usefulness of the few forecasts that show significant skill. However, FLX-forecasts initialized in May recover skill in July and August, the peak season of the Atlantic Niño (anomaly correlation coefficients of about 0.3). Further study is necessary to determine the mechanism that drives this potentially useful recovery.

Effect of geomagnetic storm conditions on the equatorial ionization anomaly and equatorial temperature anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharti, Gaurav; Bag, T.; Sunil Krishna, M. V.

2018-03-01

The effect of the geomagnetic storm on the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) has been studied using the atomic oxygen dayglow emissions at 577.7 nm (OI 557.7 nm) and 732.0 nm (OII 732.0 nm). For the purpose of this study, four intense geomagnetic storms during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 have been considered. This study is primarily based on the results obtained using photochemical models with necessary inputs from theoretical studies and experimental observations. The latest reaction rate coefficients, quantum yields and the corresponding cross-sections have also been incorporated in these models. The volume emission rate of airglow emissions has been calculated using the neutral densities from NRLMSISE-00 and charged densities from IRI-2012 model. The modeled volume emission rate (VER) for OI 557.7 nm shows a positive correlation with the Dst index at 150 km and negative correlation with Dst at 250 and 280 km altitudes. Latitudinal profile of the greenline emission rate at different altitudes show a distinct behaviour similar to what has been observed in EIA with crests on either sides of the equator. The EIA crests are found to show poleward movement in the higher altitude regions. The volume emission rate of 732.0 nm emission shows a strong enhancement during the main phase of the storm. The changes observed in the airglow emission rates are explained with the help of variations induced in neutral densities and parameters related to EIA and ETA. The latitudinal variation of 732.0 nm emission rate is correlated to the variability in EIA during the storm period.

Main processes of the Atlantic cold tongue interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planton, Yann; Voldoire, Aurore; Giordani, Hervé; Caniaux, Guy

2018-03-01

The interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) is studied by means of a mixed-layer heat budget analysis. A method to classify extreme cold and warm ACT events is proposed and applied to ten various analysis and reanalysis products. This classification allows 5 cold and 5 warm ACT events to be selected over the period 1982-2007. Cold (warm) ACT events are defined by the presence of negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at the center of the equatorial Atlantic in late boreal spring, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic. An ocean general circulation model capable of reconstructing the interannual variability of the ACT correctly is used to demonstrate that cold ACT events develop rapidly from May to June mainly due to intense cooling by vertical mixing and horizontal advection. The simulated cooling at the center of the basin is the result of the combined effects of non-local and local processes. The non-local process is an upwelling associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, which makes the mixed-layer more shallow and preconditions the upper layers to be cooled by an intense heat loss at the base of the mixed-layer, which is amplified by a stronger local injection of energy from the atmosphere. The early cooling by vertical mixing in March is also shown to be a good predictor of June cooling. In July, horizontal advection starts to warm the mixed-layer abnormally and damps SST anomalies. The advection anomalies, which result from changes in the horizontal temperature gradient, are associated in some cases with the propagation of Rossby waves along the equator. During warm ACT events, processes are reversed, generating positive SST anomalies: a downwelling Kelvin wave triggers stratification anomalies and mixed-layer depth anomalies, amplified by a weaker injection of energy from the atmosphere in May-June. In July, warm ACT events are abnormally cooled due to negative horizontal advection anomalies resulting from processes similar to those that occur during cold ACT events. This additional cooling process extends the period of cooling of the ACT, reducing SST anomalies.

Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

2017-10-01

Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, K. K.; Yang, H.

1994-01-01

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of the extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tung, K.K.; Yang, H.

1994-10-01

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of themore » extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.« less

Variations of TEC near the Indian Equatorial Ionospheric anomaly (EIA) stations by GPS measurements during descending phase of solar activity (2005 -2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sanjay; Singh, Abhay Kumar

The dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded at Varanasi (geographic latitude 250, 16 N longitude 820, 59 E) and Kanpur (geographic latitude 260, 30 N longitude 800, 12 E) stations, near the equatorial ionosphere anomaly (EIA) in India, have been analyzed to retrieve total electron content (TEC). The daily peak value of vertical total electron content (VTEC) has been utilized to study the variability of EIA. Present paper studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on EIA. It has been found that EIA yield their maximum values during the equinox months and minimum during summer and winter. The correlations of EIA with solar as well as geomagnetic indices have been also discussed. Key words: Total electron contents (TECs), EIA, GPS.

Potential role of resurfacing Subtropical Underwater in ENSO evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, T.; Chi, J.

2017-12-01

Results from a model of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) have shown that the resurfacing of high salinity Subtropical Underwater contributes to the sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific. On interannual time scale, this contribution can account for as much as 25% of the surface freshwater flux anomalies and is believed to play a role in ENSO evolution. Having these results in mind, this study investigates the surface salinity budget and its primary controls in the equatorial Pacific using ECCO output for the period 1993-2016. Particular attention is paid to 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Preliminary analyses of the model results suggest that enhanced subsurface processes and in particular enhanced entrainment of Subtropical Underwater are primarily responsible for the positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during 2014/2015, which represents an opposite phase of El Niño. These subsurface processes weakened during 2015/2016, diretly contributing to the development of the 2015/2016 El Niño. The mechanisms controlling these subsurface processes are discussed.

A delayed action oscillator shared by biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Tourre, Y.M.; Barlow, M.; Dettinger, M.

2003-01-01

Biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific basin are observed to share patterns and evolution in covarying sea surface temperature (SST), 18??C isotherm depth (Z18), zonal surface wind (ZSW), and wind stress curl (WSC) anomalies from 1955 to 1999. Each signal has warm SST anomalies propagating slowly eastward along the equator, generating westerly ZSW anomalies in their wake. These westerly ZSW anomalies produce cyclonic WSC anomalies off the equator which pump baroclinic Rossby waves in the western/central tropical North Pacific Ocean. These Rossby waves propagate westward, taking ???6, ???12, and ???36 months to reach the western boundary near ???7??N, ???12??N, and ???18??N on biennial, interannual, and decadal period scales, respectively. There, they reflect as equatorial coupled waves, propagating slowly eastward in covarying SST, Z18, and ZSW anomalies, taking ???6, ???12, and ???24 months to reach the central/eastern equatorial ocean. These equatorial coupled waves produce a delayed-negative feedback to the warm SST anomalies there. The decrease in Rossby wave phase speed with latitude, the increase in meridional scale of equatorial SST anomalies with period scale, and the associated increase in latitude of Rossby wave forcing are consistent with the delayed action oscillator (DAO) model used to explain El Nin??o. However, this is not true of the western-boundary reflection of Rossby waves into slow equatorial coupled waves. This requires modification of the extant DAO model. We construct a modified DAO model, demonstrating how the various mechanisms and the size and sources of their delays yield the resulting frequency of each signal.

The seasonal march of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean and its El Niño variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparin, Florent; Roemmich, Dean

2017-08-01

Based on two modern data sets, the climatological seasonal march of the upper-ocean is examined in the equatorial Pacific for the period 2004-2014, because of its large contribution to the total variance, its relationship to El Niño, and its unique equatorial wave phenomena. Argo provides a broadscale view of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean based on subsurface temperature and salinity measurements for the period 2004-2015, and satellite altimetry provides synoptic observations of the sea surface height (SSH) for the period 1993-2015. Using either 11-year (1993-2003/2004-2014) time-series for averaging, the seasonal Rossby waves stands out clearly and eastward intraseasonal Kelvin wave propagation is strong enough in individual years to leave residuals in the 11-year averages, particularly but not exclusively, during El Niño onset years. The agreement of altimetric SSH minus Argo steric height (SH) residuals with GRACE ocean mass estimates confirms the scale-matching of in situ variability with that of satellite observations. Surface layer and subsurface thermohaline variations are both important in determining SH and SSH basin-wide patterns. The SH/SSH October-November maximum in the central-eastern Pacific is primarily due to a downward deflection of the thermocline (∼20 m), causing a warm subsurface anomaly (>1 °C), in response to the phasing of downwelling intraseasonal Kelvin and seasonal Rossby waves. Compared with the climatology, the stronger October-November maximum in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites is due to higher intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability. Associated with these equatorial wave patterns along the thermocline, the western warm/fresh pool waters move zonally at interannual timescales through zonal wind stress and pressure gradient fluctuations, and cause substantial fresh (up to 0.6 psu) and warm (∼1 °C higher than the climatology) anomalies in the western-central Pacific surface-layer during the El Niño onset year, and of the opposite sign during the termination year. These El Niño-related patterns are then analyzed focusing on the case of the onset of the strong 2015/2016 episode, and are seen to be around two times larger than that in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites. The present work exploits the capabilities of Argo and altimetry to update and improve the description of the physical state of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean, and provides a benchmark for assessing the accuracy of models in representing equatorial Pacific variability.

The weakening of the ENSO-Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) coupling strength in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Choi, Jun-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-07-01

This study examines a recent weakening of the coupling between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode after the 2000s and 2010s compared to the previous two decades (1980s and 1990s). The correlation between the IOD during the September-November season and the Nino3.4 index during the December-February season is 0.21 for 1999-2014, while for the previous two decades (1979-1998) it is 0.64. It is found that this weakening of the ENSO-IOD coupling during the 2000s and 2010s is associated with different spatial patterns in ENSO evolution during the boreal spring and summer seasons. During the boreal spring season of the El Nino developing phase, positive precipitation anomalies over the northern off-equatorial western Pacific is systematically weakened during the 2000s and 2010s. This also weakens the low-level cross-equatorial southerly flow, which can cause local negative precipitation anomalies over the maritime continent through increased evaporation and cold and dry moist energy advection. The weakened negative precipitation anomalies over the maritime continent reduces the amplitude of the equatorial easterly over the IO, therefore, suppresses a ENSO-related IOD variability. An analysis using climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) supports this observational findings that the amplitude of the cross-equatorial southerly flow and associated suppressed convective activities over the maritime continent during the El Nino developing season are critical for determining the ENSO-IOD coupling strength in climate models.

The Low-Frequency Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haekkinen, Sirpa; Mo, Kingtse C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic is examined from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) as well as from an ocean model simulation forced by COADS anomalies appended to a monthly climatology. Our findings are as follows: Only the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern tropics are driven by heat fluxes, while the southern tropical variability arises from wind driven ocean circulation changes. The subsurface temperatures in the northern and southern tropics are found to have a strong linkage to buoyancy forcing changes in the northern North Atlantic. Evidence for Kelvin-like boundary wave propagation from the high latitudes is presented from the model simulation. This extratropical influence is associated with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing and manifests itself in the northern and southern tropical temperature anomalies of the same sign at depth of 100-200 meters as result of a Rossby wave propagation away from the eastern boundary in the wake of the boundary wave passage. The most apparent association of the southern tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (STA) arises with the anomalous cross-equatorial winds which can be related to both NAO and the remote influence from the Pacific equatorial region. These teleconnections are seasonal so that the NAO impact on the tropical SST is the largest it mid-winter but in spring and early summer the Pacific remote influence competes with NAO. However, NAO appears to have a more substantial role than the Pacific influence at low frequencies during the last 50 years. The dynamic origin of STA is indirectly confirmed from the SST-heat flux relationship using ocean model experiments which remove either anomalous wind stress forcing or atmospheric forcing anomalies contributing to heat exchange.

Moisture dynamics of the northward and eastward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations: possible role of tropical Indo-west Pacific SST and circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, Prasanth A.; Sahai, A. K.

2016-08-01

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has complex spatial structure due to the co-existence of equatorial eastward and off-equatorial northward propagation in the equatorial Indian Ocean. As a result, equatorial Indian Ocean convection has simultaneous northward and eastward (NE), northward only (N-only) and eastward only (E-only) propagations. It is well established that the convection propagates in the direction of increasing moist static energy (MSE). The moisture and MSE budget analysis reveals that the horizontal advection of anomalous MSE contributes to positive MSE tendency, which is in agreement with the horizontal advection of column integrated moisture anomaly. Northward movement of warm SST and the anomalous moisture advected by zonal wind are the major initiative for the northward propagation of convection from the equatorial Indian Ocean in both NE and N-only category. At the same time warm SST anomaly in the equatorial west Pacific along with moisture advection caused by anomalous meridional wind is important for the equatorial eastward branch of NE propagation. As these anomalies in the west Pacific moves northward, equatorial Indian Ocean convection establishes over the equatorial west Pacific. The absence of these processes confines the BSISO in northward direction for N-only category. In the case of E-only movement, warm SST anomaly and moisture advection by zonal component of wind causes the eastward propagation of convection. Boundary layer moisture convergence always remains east of convection center in E-only propagation, while it coincides with convection centre in other two categories. Thus the present study concludes that the difference in underlying SST and atmospheric circulation in tropical Indo-west Pacific oceanic regions encourage the differential propagation of BSISO convection through moisture dynamics.

Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun

2005-01-01

Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. C.; Hu, Z. Z.; Huang, B.; Sui, C. H.

2016-02-01

In this study, we demonstrate that a sudden reversal of anomalous equatorial zonal current at the peaking ENSO phase triggers the rapid termination of an ENSO event. Throughout an ENSO cycle, the anomalous equatorial zonal current is strongly controlled by the concavity of the anomalous thermocline meridional structure near the equator. During the ENSO developing phase, the anomalous zonal current in the central and eastern Pacific generally enhances the ENSO growth through its zonal SST advection. In the mature phase of ENSO, however, the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies are reflected in the eastern Pacific and slowly propagate westward off the equator in both hemispheres. As a result, the concavity of the thermocline anomalies near the equator is reversed, i.e., the off-equatorial thermocline depth anomalies become higher than that on the equator for El Niño events and lower for La Niño events. This meridional change of thermocline structure reverses zonal transport rapidly in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the ENSO SST anomalies by reversed advection. More importantly, the reversed zonal mass transport weakens the existing zonal tilting of equatorial thermocline and suppresses the thermocline feedback. Both processes are concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific and can be effective on subseasonal time scales. These current reversal effects are built-in to the ENSO peak phase and independent of the zonal wind effect on thermocline slope. It functions as an oceanic control on ENSO evolution during both El Niño and La Niña events.

Anomalous variation in GPS based TEC measurements prior to the 30 September 2009 Sumatra Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karia, Sheetal; Pathak, Kamlesh

This paper investigates the features of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies in the total elec-tron content (TEC) data obtained on the basis of regular GPS observations from the GPS receiver at SVNIT Surat (21.16 N, 72.78 E Geog) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region. The data has been analysed for 5 different earthquakes that occurred during 2009 in India and its neighbouring regions. Our observation shows that for the cases of the earthquake, in which the preparation area lies between the crests of the equatorial anomaly close to the geomagnetic equator the enhancement in TEC was followed by a depletion in TEC on the day of earthquake, which may be connected to the equatorial anomaly shape distortions. For the analysis of the ionospheric effects of one of such case-the 30 September 2009 Sumatra earthquake, Global Ionospheric Maps of TEC were used. The possible influence of the earth-quake preparation processes on the main low-latitude ionosphere peculiarity—the equatorial anomaly—is discussed.

ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Kane, Terence J.; Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.

South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the centralmore » tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm{sup −3} isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of the atmosphere forcing Central Pacific El Nino events are manifest.« less

Diversity of moderate El Niño events evolution: role of air-sea interactions in the eastern tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewitte, Boris; Takahashi, Ken

2017-12-01

In this paper we investigate the evolution of moderate El Niño events during their developing phase with the objective to understand why some of them did not evolve as extreme events despite favourable conditions for the non-linear amplification of the Bjerknes feedback (i.e. warm SST in Austral winter in the eastern equatorial Pacific). Among the moderate events, two classes are considered consisting in the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and Central Pacific (CP) events. We first show that the observed SST variability across moderate El Niño events (i.e. inter-event variability) is largest in the far eastern Pacific (east of 130°W) in the Austral winter prior to their peak, which is associated to either significant warm anomaly (moderate EP El Niño) or an anomaly between weak warm and cold (moderate CP El Niño) as reveals by the EOF analysis of the SST anomaly evolution during the development phase of El Niño across the El Niño years. Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of SST and wind stress anomalies across the El Niño years further indicates that the inter-event SST variability is associated with an air-sea mode explaining 31% of the covariance between SST and wind stress. The associated SST pattern consists in SST anomalies developing along the coast of Ecuador in Austral fall and expanding westward as far as 130°W in Austral winter. The associated wind stress pattern features westerlies (easterlies) west of 130°W along the equator peaking around June-August for EP (CP) El Niño events. This air-sea mode is interpreted as resulting from a developing seasonal Bjerknes feedback for EP El Niño events since it is shown to be associated to a Kelvin wave response at its peak phase. However equatorial easterlies east of 130°W emerge in September that counters the growing SST anomalies associated to the air-sea mode. These have been particularly active during both the 1972 and the 2015 El Niño events. It is shown that the easterlies are connected to an off-equatorial southerly wind off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. The southerly wind is a response to the coastal SST anomalies off Peru developing from Austral fall. Implications of our results for the understanding of the seasonal ENSO dynamics and diversity are discussed in the light of the analysis of two global climate models simulating realistically ENSO diversity (GFDL_CM2.1 and CESM).

Improved determination of vector lithospheric magnetic anomalies from MAGSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ravat, Dhananjay

1993-01-01

Scientific contributions made in developing new methods to isolate and map vector magnetic anomalies from measurements made by Magsat are described. In addition to the objective of the proposal, the isolation and mapping of equatorial vector lithospheric Magsat anomalies, isolation of polar ionospheric fields during the period were also studied. Significant progress was also made in isolation of polar delta(Z) component and scalar anomalies as well as integration and synthesis of various techniques of removing equatorial and polar ionospheric effects. The significant contributions of this research are: (1) development of empirical/analytical techniques in modeling ionospheric fields in Magsat data and their removal from uncorrected anomalies to obtain better estimates of lithospheric anomalies (this task was accomplished for equatorial delta(X), delta(Z), and delta(B) component and polar delta(Z) and delta(B) component measurements; (2) integration of important processing techniques developed during the last decade with the newly developed technologies of ionospheric field modeling into an optimum processing scheme; and (3) implementation of the above processing scheme to map the most robust magnetic anomalies of the lithosphere (components as well as scalar).

Interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

2000-07-01

The interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using three ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model integrations. The integrations are forced by specifying observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability over a forcing domain. The forcing domain is the global ocean for the first ensemble, limited to the tropical ocean for the second ensemble, and further limited to the tropical Atlantic region for the third ensemble. The ensemble integrations show that extratropical SST anomalies have little impact on tropical variability, but the effect of ENSO is pervasive in the Tropics. Consistent with previous studies, the most significant influence of ENSO is found during the boreal spring season and is associated with an anomalous Walker circulation. Two important aspects of ENSO's influence on tropical Atlantic variability are noted. First, the ENSO signal contributes significantly to the `dipole' correlation structure between tropical Atlantic SST and rainfall in the Nordeste Brazil region. In the absence of the ENSO signal, the correlations are dominated by SST variability in the southern tropical Atlantic, resulting in less of a dipole structure. Second, the remote influence of ENSO also contributes to positive correlations between SST anomalies and downward surface heat flux in the tropical Atlantic during the boreal spring season. However, even when ENSO forcing is absent, the model integrations provide evidence for a positive surface heat flux feedback in the deep Tropics, which is analyzed in a companion study by Chang et al. The analysis of model simulations shows that interannual atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific-Atlantic system is dominated by the interaction between two distinct sources of tropical heating: (i) an equatorial heat source in the eastern Pacific associated with ENSO and (ii) an off-equatorial heat source associated with SST anomalies near the Caribbean. Modeling this Caribbean heat source accurately could be very important for seasonal forecasting in the Central American-Caribbean region.

Correlation analysis between the occurrence of ionospheric scintillation at the magnetic equator and at the southern peak of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima, G. R. T.; Stephany, S.; de Paula, E. R.; Batista, I. S.; Abdu, M. A.; Rezende, L. F. C.; Aquino, M. G. S.; Dutra, A. P. S.

2014-06-01

Ionospheric scintillation refers to amplitude and phase fluctuations in radio signals due to electron density irregularities associated to structures named ionospheric plasma bubbles. The phenomenon is more pronounced around the magnetic equator where, after sunset, plasma bubbles of varying sizes and density depletions are generated by plasma instability mechanisms. The bubble depletions are aligned along Earth's magnetic field lines, and they develop vertically upward over the magnetic equator so that their extremities extend in latitude to north and south of the dip equator. Over Brazil, developing bubbles can extend to the southern peak of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly, where high levels of ionospheric scintillation are common. Scintillation may seriously affect satellite navigation systems, such as the Global Navigation Satellite Systems. However, its effects may be mitigated by using a predictive model derived from a collection of extended databases on scintillation and its associated variables. This work proposes the use of a classification and regression decision tree to perform a study on the correlation between the occurrence of scintillation at the magnetic equator and that at the southern peak of the equatorial anomaly. Due to limited size of the original database, a novel resampling heuristic was applied to generate new training instances from the original ones in order to improve the accuracy of the decision tree. The correlation analysis presented in this work may serve as a starting point for the eventual development of a predictive model suitable for operational use.

Ionospheric foF2 at EIA region: comparison between observations and IRI model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuo, Y. J.; Lee, C. C.

We have used data from an equatorial ionization anomaly area station in the western Pacific region to study the monthly variability of foF2 Diurnal seasonal and solar activity effects were investigated The data established by this study are proposed as valid input values for the development of URSI and CCIR options for the International Reference Ionosphere

EEJ and EIA variations during modeling substorms with different onset moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, M. V.

2015-11-01

This paper presents the simulations of four modeling substorms with different moment of substorm onset at 00:00 UT, 06:00 UT, 12:00 UT, and 18:00 UT for spring equinoctial conditions in solar activity minimum. Such investigation provides opportunity to examine the longitudinal dependence of ionospheric response to geomagnetic substorms. Model runs were performed using modified Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP). We analyzed GSM TIP simulated global distributions of foF2, low latitude electric field and ionospheric currents at geomagnetic equator and their disturbances at different UT moments substorms. We considered in more detail the variations in equatorial ionization anomaly, equatorial electrojet and counter equatorial electrojet during substorms. It is shown that: (1) the effects in EIA, EEJ and CEJ strongly depend on the substorm onset moment; (2) disturbances in equatorial zonal current density during substorm has significant longitudinal dependence; (3) the observed controversy on the equatorial ionospheric electric field signature of substorms can depend on the substorm onset moments, i.e., on the longitudinal variability in parameters of the thermosphere-ionosphere system.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Signal over Kototabang, West Sumatera Based on the Mini Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) Data Analysis Using the Wavelet Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermawan, E.

2018-04-01

This study is mainly concerned an application of Mini Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) at Kototabang, West Sumatera nearby the location of an Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) side. We are interest to use this data to investigate the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). We examined of daily MAWS data for 3 years observations started from January 2001 to Mei 2004. By applying wavelet analysis, we found the MJO at Kototabang have 32 days oscillations as shown in Fig.1 below. In this study, we concentrate just for local mechanis only. We will show in this paper that at the phase of the MJO with a dipole structure to the convection anomalies, there is enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and reduced convection over the western Pacific. Over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, the equatorial Rossby wave response to the west of the enhanced convection includes a region of anomalous surface divergence associated with the anomalous surface westerlies and pressure ridge. This tends to suppress ascent in the boundary layer and shuts off the deep convection, eventually leading to a convective anomaly of the opposite sign. Over the Indonesian sector, the equatorial Kelvin wave response to the east of the enhanced convection includes a region of anomalous surface convergence into the anomalous equatorial surface easterlies and pressure trough, which will tend to favour convection in this region. The Indonesian sector is also influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave response (of opposite sign) to the west of the reduced convection over the western Pacific, which also has a region of anomalous surface convergence associated with its anomalous equatorial surface easterlies and pressure trough. Hence, convective anomalies of either sign tend to erode themselves from the west and initiate a convective anomaly of opposite sign via their equatorial Rossby wave response, and expand to the east via their equatorial Kelvin wave response.

Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kimoto, Masahide; Mochizuki, Takashi

2017-10-01

The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120-130°E, 35-40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W-20°E, 30°S-30°N) during the June-July-August (JJA) season for the 1979-2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydbeck, Adam V.; Jensen, Tommy G.; Nyadjro, Ebenezer S.

2017-05-01

A novel process is identified whereby equatorial Rossby (ER) waves maintain warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies against cooling by processes related to atmospheric convection in the western Indian Ocean. As downwelling ER waves enter the western Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of +0.15°C develop near 60°E. These SST anomalies are hypothesized to stimulate convective onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The upper ocean warming that manifests in response to downwelling ER waves is examined in a mixed layer heat budget using observational and reanalysis products, respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to an equatorial westward jet of 80 cm s-1 associated with downwelling ER waves. When anomalous currents associated with ER waves are removed in the budget, the warm intraseasonal temperature anomaly in the western Indian Ocean is eliminated in observations and reduced by 55% in reanalysis.

Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Decadal Climate Variability of the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

2015-12-01

Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. In particular, several recent works indicate that the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the climate variability over the equatorial Pacific. Inspired by these studies, our work aims at investigating the impact of the tropical Atlantic on the entire tropical climate system, and uncovering the physical dynamics under these tropical teleconnections. We first performed a 'pacemaker' simulation by restoring the satellite era tropical Atlantic SST changes in a fully coupled model - the CESM1. Results reveal that the Atlantic warming heats the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific, enhances the Walker circulation and drives the subsurface Pacific to a La Niña mode, contributing to 60-70% of the above tropical changes in the past 30 years. The same pan-tropical teleconnections have been validated by the statistics of observations and 106 CMIP5 control simulations. We then used a hierarchy of atmospheric and oceanic models with different complexities, to single out the roles of atmospheric dynamics, atmosphere-ocean fluxes, and oceanic dynamics in these teleconnections. With these simulations we established a two-step mechanism as shown in the schematic figure: 1) Atlantic warming generates an atmospheric deep convection and induces easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves, and westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution. This circulation changes warms the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific with the wind-evaporation-SST effect, forming a temperature gradient over the Indo-Pacific basins. 2) The temperature gradient further generates a secondary atmospheric deep convection, which reinforces the easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and enhances the Walker circulation, triggering the Pacific to a La Niña mode with Bjerknes ocean dynamical feedback. This mechanism contributes to the understanding of the global decadal climate variability and predictability. In particular, Atlantic contributes to the Eastern Pacific cooling, which is considered as an important source of the recent global warming hiatus.

Quasibiennial Oscillation in Tropical Ozone as Revealed by Ozonesonde and Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logan, J. A.; Jones, D. B. A.; Megretskaia, I. A.; Oltmans, S. J.; Johnson, B. J.; Voemel, H.; Randel, W. J.; Kimani, W.; Schmidlin, F. J.

2003-01-01

We present an analysis of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical ozone using recent in situ measurements made by ozonesondes, supplemented by satellite profile and column data. The first in situ equatorial ozone profiles reveal the dramatic change in shape of the profile that accompanies the descent of the westerly shear zone. The partial pressure maximum in ozone increases by -25% in 5-6 months as it descends from 17.5 to 24 hPa. The amplitude of the QBO anomaly that extends from 15 to 80 hPa is found to exceed *20%, larger than indicated by earlier analyses of satellite data. The influence of the QBO on equatorial ozone is dominant between 10 and 45 hPa, but the seasonal cycle is more important below 50 hPa. The equatorial ozone anomalies are influenced by El Niiio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the lowest part of the stratosphere. The ozone anomaly in the lower stratosphere at 20"s lags that at the equator by only a few months during the easterlies from 1994 to 1998, contrary to the previous picture of the subtropical and equatorial anomalies being out of phase.

Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

2017-04-01

The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

A high-resolution OGCM simulation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Part I: Long equatorial waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boulanger, J. P.; Delecluse, F.; Maes, C.; Levy, C.

1995-01-01

A high resolution oceanic general circulation model of the three topical oceans is used to investigate long equatorial wave activity in the Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Zonal wind stress forcing and simulated dynamic height are interpreted using techniques previously applied to data. Kelvin and first Rossby waves are observed propagating during all the period. A seasonal cycle and interannual anomalies are computed for each long equatorial wave. The east Pacific basin is mainly dominated by seasonal cycle variations while strong interannual anomalies are observed west of the dateline. Long wave interannual anomalies are then compared to wave coefficients simulated by a simple wind-forced model. Our results outline the major role played by wind forcing on interannual time scales in generating long equatorial waves. However, near both eastern and western boundaries, some differences can be attributed to long wave reflections. A comparison to wave coefficients calculated from GEOSAT sea-level data gives some insight of the model behavior.

Atmosphere-Warm Ocean Interaction and Its Impacts on Asian-Australian Monsoon Variation(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Wu, Renguang; Li, Tim

2003-04-01

Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) anomalies depend strongly on phases of El Niño (La Niña). Based on this distinctive feature, a method of extended singular value decomposition analysis was developed to analyze the changing characteristics of A-AM anomalies during El Niño (La Niña) from its development to decay. Two off-equatorial surface anticyclones dominate the A-AM anomalies during an El Niño-one over the south Indian Ocean (SIO) and the other over the western North Pacific (WNP). The SIO anticyclone, which affects climate conditions over the Indian Ocean, eastern Africa, and India, originates during the summer of a growing El Niño, rapidly reaches its peak intensity in fall, and decays when El Niño matures. The WNP anticyclone, on the other hand, forms in fall, attains maximum intensity after El Niño matures, and persists through the subsequent spring and summer, providing a prolonged impact on the WNP and east Asian climate. The monsoon anomalies associated with a La Niña resemble those during an El Niño but with cyclonic anomalies. From the development summer to the decay summer of an El Niño (La Niña), the anomalous sea level pressure, low-level winds, and vertical motion tend to reverse their signs in the equatorial Indian and western Pacific Oceans (10°S-20°N, 40°-160°E). This suggests that the tropospheric biennial oscillation is intimately linked to the turnabouts of El Niño and La Niña.The remote El Niño forcing alone can explain neither the unusual amplification of the SIO anticyclone during a developing El Niño nor the maintenance of the WNP anticyclone during a decaying El Niño. The atmosphere-ocean conditions in the two anticyclone regions are similar, namely, a zonal sea surface temperature (SST) dipole with cold water to the east and warm water to the west of the anticyclone center. These conditions result from positive feedback between the anomalous anticyclone and the SST dipole, which intensifies the coupled mode in the SIO during El Niño growth and maintains the coupled mode in the WNP during El Niño decay. The interactions in the two anticyclone regions share common wind evaporation/entrainment and cloud-radiation feedback processes but they differ with regard to the oceanic dynamics (vertical and horizontal advection and thermocline adjustment by oceanic waves). The outcome of the interactions in both regions, however, depends crucially on the climatological surface winds. The SIO-coupled mode is triggered by El Niño-induced subsidence and alongshore winds off the coast of Sumatra. However, other independent El Niño local and remote forcing can also trigger this coupled mode.The traditional view has regarded SST anomalies in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans as causing the A-AM variability. The present analysis suggests that the SST anomalies in these warm ocean regions are, to a large extent, a result of anomalous monsoons. Thus, the atmosphere-warm ocean interaction may significantly modify the impacts of remote El Niño forcing and should be regarded as one of the physical factors that determine the variability of the A-AM.During the summer of El Niño development, the remote El Niño forcing plays a major role in the A-AM anomalies that exhibit obvious equatorial asymmetry. A tilted anticyclonic ridge originates in the Maritime Continent and extends to southern India, weakening the Indian monsoon while strengthening the WNP monsoon. Numerical modeling experiments suggest that the mean monsoon circulation enhances the equatorial Rossby wave response in the easterly vertical shear region of the Northern Hemisphere and creates the equatorial asymmetry.

Long-term variations of SST and heat content in the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huonsou-gbo, Aubains; Servain, Jacques; Caniaux, Guy; Araujo, Moacyr; Bourlès, Bernard; Veleda, Doris

2015-04-01

Recent studies (eg. Wen et al. 2010; Servain et al. 2014) suggest that subsurface processes influence the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic through the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) with time lags of several months. In this study, we used observed SST and Ocean heat content to test such hypothesis during the period 1964-2013. First results indicate great similarities in the positive linear trends of monthly standardized anomalies of SST, upper ocean heat content (0-500m) and deeper ocean heat content (500-2000m) averaged over the whole Atlantic Ocean. Strong positive trends of SST and deeper heat content occurred in the equatorial Atlantic, while a strong positive trend of the upper heat content was observed in the northeast Atlantic. These positive trends were the highest during the last two decades. The lagged positive correlation patterns between upper heat content anomalies over the whole gridded Atlantic Ocean and SST anomalies averaged over the equatorial region (60°W-15°E; 10°N-10°S) show a slow temporal evolution, which is roughly in agreement with the upper MOC. More detailed works about the mechanism, as well as about the origin of the highest positive trend of the deeper heat content in the equatorial region, are presently under investigation. References Servain J., G. Caniaux, Y. K. Kouadio, M. J. McPhaden, M. Araujo (2014). Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, 3071-3089, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2168-7.

Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Srukla, J.

1996-10-01

Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. 71e EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows.Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months.Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies over southern and northern parts of the Nordeste are out of phase: drought years over the northern Nordeste are commonly preceded by wetter years over the southern Nordeste, and vice versa.

Long-Range Statistical Forecasting of Korean Summer Precipitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

in the equatorial Pacific during ENLN periods leads to tropical and extratropical atmospheric 10 circulation anomalies (e.g., Ford 2000). Part of...characteristic extratropical anomalies that occur during EN and LN events. Sardeshmukh and Hoskins (1988) proposed a mechanism by which anomalous tropical...forcing could induce an extratropical Rossby wave train response. Nitta (1987) and others identified a Rossby wave train response to off-equatorial

Seasonal variations of the ionospheric total electron content in Asian equatorial anomaly regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Ho-Fang; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Tsai, Wei-Hsiung; Liu, Chao-Han; Tseng, Ching-Liang; Wu, Chin-Chun

2001-12-01

The ionospheric total electron contents (TEC) in both northern and southern equatorial anomaly regions are examined by using the Global Positioning System (GPS) in Asian area. The TEC contour charts obtained at YMSM (25.2°N, 121.6°E 14.0°N geomagnetic) and DGAR (7.3°S, 72.4°E 16.2°S geomagnetic) stations in 1997, solar minimum, are investigated. It is found that the ionospheric crests manifest remarkable seasonal variations. The TEC values on both northern and southern equatorial anomaly crests yield their maximum values during the vernal and autumnal months, but the winter anomaly does not appear in the southern region. Results show that both crests are fully developed around midday in winter, postnoon in equinoxes and late afternoon in summer, and the two crests move significantly equatorward in winter but slightly poleward in summer and autumn. These phenomena can be fully explained by a combined theory of the transequatorial neutral wind, the subsolar point, and the auroral equatorward wind.

Impacts of the IOD-associated temperature and salinity anomalies on the intermittent equatorial undercurrent anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Junde; Liang, Chujin; Tang, Youmin; Liu, Xiaohui; Lian, Tao; Shen, Zheqi; Li, Xiaojing

2017-11-01

The study of Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) has attracted a broad attention in recent years due to its strong response and feedback to the Indian Ocean Dipole. In this paper, we first produce a high-quality simulation of three-dimensional temperature, salinity and zonal current simulation from 1982 to 2014, using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. On this basis, with two sensitivity experiments, we investigate the role of temperature and salinity anomalies in driving and enhancing the EUC during the positive IOD events by examining the variation of the EUC seasonal cycle and diagnosing the zonal momentum budget along the equatorial Indian Ocean. Our results show that during January-March, the EUC can appear along the entire equatorial Indian Ocean in all years, but during August-November, the EUC can appear and reach the eastern Indian Ocean only during the positive IOD events. The zonal momentum budget analysis indicates that the pressure gradient force contributes most to the variation of the eastward acceleration of zonal currents in the subsurface. During the positive IOD events, strong negative subsurface temperature anomalies exist in the eastern Indian Ocean, with negative surface salinity anomalies in the central and eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in a large pressure gradient force to drive EUC during the August-November. Further, the results of two sensitivity experiments indicate that the temperature anomalies significantly impact the pressure gradient force, playing a leading role in driving the EUC, while the surface salinity anomalies can secondarily help to intensify the eastward EUC through increasing the zonal density gradient in the eastern Indian Ocean and impacting the vertical momentum advection in the subsurface.

Indian Ocean warming during 1958-2004 simulated by a climate system model and its mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Bo

2014-01-01

The mechanism responsible for Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature (SST) basin-wide warming trend during 1958-2004 is studied based on both observational data analysis and numerical experiments with a climate system model FGOALS-gl. To quantitatively estimate the relative contributions of external forcing (anthropogenic and natural forcing) and internal variability, three sets of numerical experiments are conducted, viz. an all forcing run forced by both anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) and natural forcing (solar constant and volcanic aerosols), a natural forcing run driven by only natural forcing, and a pre-industrial control run. The model results are compared to the observations. The results show that the observed warming trend during 1958-2004 (0.5 K (47-year)-1) is largely attributed to the external forcing (more than 90 % of the total trend), while the residual is attributed to the internal variability. Model results indicate that the anthropogenic forcing accounts for approximately 98.8 % contribution of the external forcing trend. Heat budget analysis shows that the surface latent heat flux due to atmosphere and surface longwave radiation, which are mainly associated with anthropogenic forcing, are in favor of the basin-wide warming trend. The basin-wide warming is not spatially uniform, but with an equatorial IOD-like pattern in climate model. The atmospheric processes, oceanic processes and climatological latent heat flux together form an equatorial IOD-like warming pattern, and the oceanic process is the most important in forming the zonal dipole pattern. Both the anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing result in easterly wind anomalies over the equator, which reduce the wind speed, thereby lead to less evaporation and warmer SST in the equatorial western basin. Based on Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies uplift the thermocline, which is unfavorable to SST warming in the eastern basin, and contribute to SST warming via deeper thermocline in the western basin. The easterly anomalies also drive westward anomalous equatorial currents, against the eastward climatology currents, which is in favor of the SST warming in the western basin via anomalous warm advection. Therefore, both the atmospheric and oceanic processes are in favor of the IOD-like warming pattern formation over the equator.

An investigation of MAGSAT and complementary data emphasizing precambrian shields and adjacent areas of West Africa and South America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, D. A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Accomplishments with regard to the mapping and analysis of MAGSAT data for the investigation of correlations between the magnetic field characteristics of South American and African shields are reported. Significant results in the interpretation of the global total-field anomalies and the anomaly patterns of Africa and South America are discussed. The central position of the Brazilian shield tends to form a negative total-field anomaly, consistent with findings for shields in equatorial Africa. Sedimentary sequences in the Amazon basin and in the Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paolo areas exhibit positive anomalies, also consistent with equatorial Africa. Results for the Caribbean Sea and Guyana regions are also described.

Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP/NCAR ranalysis. Part I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yanai, Michio; Tomita, Tomohiko

1997-11-01

In this paper, an analysis of the heat and moisture budgets of the troposphere is revised and extended. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1994. The seasonal and interannual variability of heat sources and sinks and the nature of heating over various geographical locations is examined in detail. Results presented include global distributions of the 15-year mean of the vertically integrated heat source and moisture sink and the outgoing longwave radiation flux for northern winter and northern summer. A time series of monthlymore » mean anomalies of the apparent heat source, the apparent moisture sink, outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface temperature, and divergence at wind fields of 850 hPa and 200 hPa are presented for the equatorial Indian Ocean, the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, western Tibet, and eastern Tibet. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, short period oscillation is superimposed upon longer periods. Over the eastern Pacific, a longer periodicity is dominant and the variability of the heat source is very well correlated with similar variations of outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface temperature, and horizontal divergence. The high correlation with these variables suggests that anomalous heating is accompanied by intensified convective activity favored by warmer sea surface temperature. 13 refs., 5 figs.« less

Long-Term Changes in the Extreme Significant Wave Heights on the Western North Pacific: Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Activity and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Sinil; Oh, Jaiho

2018-02-01

Seasonal extreme wave statistics were reproduced by using the 25-km-grid global wave model of WAVEWATCH-III. The results showed that the simulated wave dataset for the present climate (1979-2009) was similar to Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wave data. Statistics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin were 0.5 m and 0.69 over the analysis domain. The largest trends and standard deviation were around the southern coast of Japan and western edge of the WNP. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify the relationship between the leading principal components (PCs) of significant wave heights (SWHs) in the peak season of July to September and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The results indicated that the inter-annual variability of SWH can be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the peak season. The CC between the first PC of the SWH and anomalies in the Nino 3.4 SST index was also significant at a 99% confidence level. Significant variations in the SWH are affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by increased SST anomalies. The genesis and development of simulated TCs can be important to the variation in SWHs for the WNP in the peak season. Therefore, we can project the variability of SWHs through TC activity based on changes in SST conditions for the equatorial Pacific in the future.

Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation as an initiator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events

DOE PAGES

Anderson, Bruce T.; Hassanzadeh, Pedram; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-31

Climates across both hemispheres are strongly influenced by tropical Pacific variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Conversely, extratropical variability also can affect the tropics. In particular, seasonal-mean alterations of near-surface winds associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) serve as a significant extratropical forcing agent of ENSO. However, it is still unclear what dynamical processes give rise to year-to-year shifts in these long-lived NPO anomalies. Here in this paper we show that intraseasonal variability in boreal winter pressure patterns over the Central North Pacific (CNP) imparts a significant signature upon the seasonal-mean circulations characteristic of the NPO. Furthermore » we show that the seasonal-mean signature results in part from year-to-year variations in persistent, quasi-stationary low-pressure intrusions into the subtropics of the CNP, accompanied by the establishment of persistent, quasi-stationary high-pressure anomalies over high latitudes of the CNP. Overall, we find that the frequency of these persistent extratropical anomalies (PEAs) during a given winter serves as a key modulator of intraseasonal variability in extratropical North Pacific circulations and, through their influence on the seasonal-mean circulations in and around the southern lobe of the NPO, the state of the equatorial Pacific 9–12 months later.« less

Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation as an initiator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Hassanzadeh, Pedram; Caballero, Rodrigo

Climates across both hemispheres are strongly influenced by tropical Pacific variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Conversely, extratropical variability also can affect the tropics. In particular, seasonal-mean alterations of near-surface winds associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) serve as a significant extratropical forcing agent of ENSO. However, it is still unclear what dynamical processes give rise to year-to-year shifts in these long-lived NPO anomalies. Here in this paper we show that intraseasonal variability in boreal winter pressure patterns over the Central North Pacific (CNP) imparts a significant signature upon the seasonal-mean circulations characteristic of the NPO. Furthermore » we show that the seasonal-mean signature results in part from year-to-year variations in persistent, quasi-stationary low-pressure intrusions into the subtropics of the CNP, accompanied by the establishment of persistent, quasi-stationary high-pressure anomalies over high latitudes of the CNP. Overall, we find that the frequency of these persistent extratropical anomalies (PEAs) during a given winter serves as a key modulator of intraseasonal variability in extratropical North Pacific circulations and, through their influence on the seasonal-mean circulations in and around the southern lobe of the NPO, the state of the equatorial Pacific 9–12 months later.« less

Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li

2017-02-01

This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

Multiproxy Reduced-Dimension Reconstruction of Holocene Tropical Pacific SST Fields and Indian Monsoon Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Molnar, P. H.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.; Kushnir, Y.

2016-12-01

We develop a multiproxy reduced-dimension methodology that blends magnesium calcium (Mg/Ca) and alkenone (UK'37) paleo sea surface temperature (SST) records from the eastern and western equatorial Pacific to recreate snapshots of full field SSTs and zonal wind anomalies from 10 to 2 ka BP in 2000-year increments. In the reconstruction, the zonal SST difference (average west Pacific SST minus average east Pacific SST) is largest at 10 ka (0.26°C), with coldest SST anomalies of -0.9°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and concurrent easterly maximum zonal wind anomalies of 7 m s-1 throughout the central Pacific. From 10 to 2 ka, the entire equatorial Pacific warms, but at a faster rate in the east than in the west. These patterns are broadly consistent with previous inferences of reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability associated with a cooler and/or "La Niña-like" state during the early to middle Holocene. At present there is a strong negative correlation between tropical pacific SSTs and Indian summer monsoon strength. Assuming ENSO-monsoon teleconnections were the same during early Holocene, we would expect a cooler tropical Pacific to enhance the summer Indian monsoon. To test this idea, we used the same tropical Pacific SST proxy records and a similar reduced-dimension technique to reconstruct fields of Arabian Sea wind-stress curl and Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Reconstructions for 10 ka reveal wind-stress curl anomalies of 30% greater than present day off the coastlines of Oman and Yemen, which suggest greater coastal upwelling and an enhanced monsoon jet during this time. Spatial rainfall reconstructions reveal the greatest difference in precipitation at 10 ka over the core monsoon region ( 20-60% greater than present day). Specifically, reconstructions from 10 ka reveal 40-60% greater rainfall over North West India, a region home to abundant paleo-lake records spanning the Holocene but is at present remarkably dry ( 200-450 mm of annual rainfall). These findings advance the hypothesis that teleconnections from the tropical Pacific contributed to, if not accounted for, greater early to middle Holocene wetness over India as recorded by various (e.g., cave, lacustrine, river discharge) paleoclimate proxies throughout the monsoon region.

Longitudinal Variations in the Variability of Spread F Occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, K. M.; Bridgwood, C.; Carrano, C. S.

2017-12-01

The complex dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere have attracted the interest and attention of researchers for many decades. The relatively local processes that give rise to large meridional gradients have been well documented and the associated terminology has entered the common lexicon of ionospheric research (e.g., fountain effect, equatorial anomaly, bubbles, Spread F). Zonal variations have also been noted, principally at the level of determining longitudinal differences in seasonal activity patterns. Due to a historical lack of high resolution ground-based observations at low latitudes, the primary source of data for such analyses has been space-based observations from satellites such as ROCSAT, DMSP, C/NOFS that measure in situ electron density variations. An important longitudinal variation in electron density structure associated with non-migrating diurnal tides was discovered by Immel et al. in 2006 using data from the FUV sensor aboard the NASA IMAGE satellite. These satellite observations have been very helpful in identifying the structural characteristics of the equatorial ionosphere and the occurrence of Spread F, but they provide little insight into variations in scintillation features and potential differences in bubble development characteristics. Moreover space-based studies tend towards the statistics of occurrence frequency over periods of weeks to months. A recent analysis of daily spread F occurrence as determined by low latitude VHF scintillation activity shows that statistical results that are consistent with previous space-based observations, but the level of variability in the occurrence data show marked variations with longitude. For example, the American sector shows very low in-season variability while the African and Asian sectors exhibit true day-to-day variability regardless of seasonal variations. The results have significant implications for space weather as they suggest that long-term forecasts of equatorial scintillation may be meaningful within specific longitude boundaries.

The Role of the Indian Ocean Sector for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System: Impact of Atmospheric Coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

2017-01-01

Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30 deg. S to 10 deg. S and 0 deg. N to 25 deg. N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

The role of the Indian Ocean sector for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system: Impact of atmospheric coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

2017-04-01

Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30°S-10°S and 0°N-25°N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

Rare Central Pacific El Niño Events Caused by Interdecadal Tropical Pacific Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wenxiu; Zheng, Xiaotong; Cai, Wenju

2017-04-01

The frequency of Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events displays strong decadal-variability but the associated dynamics is still not clear. The Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV) are two dominant modes of the Pacific low-frequency variability that can modify high-frequency behaviors. Using a 500-year control integration of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model simulation, we find that the mean state, determined by the two independent modes of tropical Pacific decadal variability, strongly affects CP El Niño frequency and the associated developing processes. A positive TPDV features a shallow thermocline and cool sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across the central-to-western tropical Pacific, and a negative IPO features cool SSTAs and strong trade winds along the equatorial Pacific. The combination of a positive TPDV and a negative IPO generates a decadal mean state, in which the climatological zonal temperature gradient is reduced, equatorward and westward current anomalies are harder to be generated over the central-to-western tropical Pacific, resulting in the lack of CP El Niño.

Thermocline Temperature Variability Reveals Shifts in the Tropical Pacific Mean State across Marine Isotope Stage 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertzberg, J. E.; Schmidt, M. W.

2014-12-01

The eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) is one of the most dynamic oceanographic regions, making it a critical area for understanding past climate change. Despite this, there remains uncertainty on the climatic evolution of the EEP through the last glacial period. According to the ocean dynamical thermostat theory, warming (cooling) of the tropical Pacific Ocean may lead to a more La Niña (El Niño)-like mean state due to zonally asymmetric heating and subsequent easterly (westerly) wind anomalies at the equator (Clement and Cane, 1999). Attempts to understand these feedbacks on millennial timescales across Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) have proven to be fruitful in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) (Stott et al., 2002), yet complimentary, high-resolution records from the EEP are lacking. To provide a more complete understanding of the feedback mechanisms of the dynamical thermostat across periods of abrupt climate change, we reconstruct thermocline temperature variability across MIS 3 from a sediment core located in the EEP, directly within the equatorial cold tongue upwelling region (core MV1014-02-17JC). Temperature anomalies in thermocline waters of the EEP are integrally linked to the ENSO system, with large positive and negative anomalies recorded during El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. Mg/Ca ratios in the thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei were measured at 2 cm intervals, resulting in a temporal resolution of <200 years. Preliminary results across Interstadials 5-7 reveal warmer thermocline temperatures (an increase in Mg/Ca of .25 ± .02 mmol/mol) during periods of cooling following peak Interstadial warmth over Greenland, as seen from the NGRIP δ18O record. Thus, periods of cooling over Greenland appear to correspond to an El Niño-like mean state in the tropical Pacific, in line with predictions of an ocean dynamical thermostat. Interestingly, Heinrich Event 3 corresponds to cooler thermocline temperatures, suggesting a different forcing mechanism of tropical Pacific mean state variability across Heinrich Events. The record will be extended back to 80 kyr BP, and we will also measure Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca ratios across MIS 3 to calculate the zonal E-W sea surface temperature gradient using published records from the WEP.

Theoretical study of the ionospheric plasma cave in the equatorial ionization anomaly region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Tsung; Lin, C. H.; Chen, C. H.; Liu, J. Y.; Huba, J. D.; Chang, L. C.; Liu, H.-L.; Lin, J. T.; Rajesh, P. K.

2014-12-01

This paper investigates the physical mechanism of an unusual equatorial electron density structure, plasma cave, located underneath the equatorial ionization anomaly by using theoretical simulations. The simulation results provide important new understanding of the dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere. It has been suggested previously that unusual E>⇀×B>⇀ drifts might be responsible for the observed plasma cave structure, but model simulations in this paper suggest that the more likely cause is latitudinal meridional neutral wind variations. The neutral winds are featured by two divergent wind regions at off-equator latitudes and a convergent wind region around the magnetic equator, resulting in plasma divergences and convergence, respectively, to form the plasma caves structure. The tidal-decomposition analysis further suggests that the cave related meridional neutral winds and the intensity of plasma cave are highly associated with the migrating terdiurnal tidal component of the neutral winds.

A special MJO event with a double Kelvin wave structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lili; Li, Tim

2017-04-01

The second Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the field campaign of the Dynamics of the MJO/Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (DYNAMO/CINDY2011) exhibi ted an unusual double rainband structure. Using a wavenumber-frequency spectral filtering method, we unveil that this double rainband structure arises primarily from the Kelvin wave component. The zonal phase speed of the double rainbands is about 7.9 degree per day in the equatorial Indian Ocean, being in the range of convectively coupled Kelvin wave phase speeds. The convection and circulation anomalies associated with the Kelvin wave component are characterized by two anomalous convective cells, with low-level westerly (easterly) and high (low) pressure anomalies to the west (east) of the convective centers, and opposite wind and pressure anomalies in the upper troposphere. Such a zonal wind-pressure phase relationship is consistent with the equatorial free-wave dynamics. While the free-atmospheric circulation was dominated by the first baroclinic mode vertical structure, moisture and vertical motion in the boundary layer led the convection. The convection and circulation structures derived based on the conventional MJO filter show a different characteristic. For example, the phase speed is slower (about 5.9 degree per day), and there were no double convective branches. This suggests that MJO generally involves multi-scales and it is incomplete to extract its signals by using the conventional filtering technique.

Joint impact of North and South Pacific extratropical atmospheric variability on the onset of ENSO events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Jianping; Tseng, Yu-heng; Sun, Cheng; Xie, Fei

2017-01-01

Previous studies have indicated that boreal winter subtropical and extratropical sea surface pressure (SLP) anomalies over both the North and South Pacific are significantly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in the following boreal winter. Here we use observational data and model simulations to show that the ability of the boreal winter North Pacific SLP anomalies to initiate ENSO events a year later may strongly depend on the state of the simultaneous South Pacific SLP anomalies and vice versa. When the boreal winter North Pacific SLP anomalies are of the opposite sign to the simultaneous South Pacific anomalies, the correlation of the North or South Pacific anomalies with the following ENSO state becomes much weaker, and the strength of the ENSO events also tends to be weaker. One possible reason for this is that when the boreal winter North and South Pacific SLP anomalies have the opposite sign, the westerly anomalies over the western-central equatorial Pacific during the following boreal summer are greatly reduced by the interference between the antecedent North and South Pacific SLP anomalies, thereby not favoring the development of ENSO events. Further analysis indicates that a combination of North and South Pacific precursor signals may serve to enhance the ENSO prediction skill.

The tropical tropopause inversion layer: variability and modulation by equatorial waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilch Kedzierski, Robin; Matthes, Katja; Bumke, Karl

2016-09-01

The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) acts as a transition layer between the troposphere and the stratosphere over several kilometers, where air has both tropospheric and stratospheric properties. Within this region, a fine-scale feature is located: the tropopause inversion layer (TIL), which consists of a sharp temperature inversion at the tropopause and the corresponding high static stability values right above, which theoretically affect the dispersion relations of atmospheric waves like Rossby or inertia-gravity waves and hamper stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Therefore, the TIL receives increasing attention from the scientific community, mainly in the extratropics so far. Our goal is to give a detailed picture of the properties, variability and forcings of the tropical TIL, with special emphasis on small-scale equatorial waves and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO).We use high-resolution temperature profiles from the COSMIC satellite mission, i.e., ˜ 2000 measurements per day globally, between 2007 and 2013, to derive TIL properties and to study the fine-scale structures of static stability in the tropics. The situation at near tropopause level is described by the 100 hPa horizontal wind divergence fields, and the vertical structure of the QBO is provided by the equatorial winds at all levels, both from the ERA-Interim reanalysis.We describe a new feature of the equatorial static stability profile: a secondary stability maximum below the zero wind line within the easterly QBO wind regime at about 20-25 km altitude, which is forced by the descending westerly QBO phase and gives a double-TIL-like structure. In the lowermost stratosphere, the TIL is stronger with westerly winds. We provide the first evidence of a relationship between the tropical TIL strength and near-tropopause divergence, with stronger (weaker) TIL with near-tropopause divergent (convergent) flow, a relationship analogous to that of TIL strength with relative vorticity in the extratropics.To elucidate possible enhancing mechanisms of the tropical TIL, we quantify the signature of the different equatorial waves on the vertical structure of static stability in the tropics. All waves show, on average, maximum cold anomalies at the thermal tropopause, warm anomalies above and a net TIL enhancement close to the tropopause. The main drivers are Kelvin, inertia-gravity and Rossby waves. We suggest that a similar wave modulation will exist at mid- and polar latitudes from the extratropical wave modes.

Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreck, Carl J., III; Molinari, John; Mohr, Karen I.

2009-01-01

The direct influences of equatorial waves on the genesis of tropical cyclones are evaluated. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. For an attribution threshold of 3 mm/day, 51% of warm season western North Pacific tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances, 29% to equatorial Rossby waves, 26% to mixed Rossby-Gravity waves, 23% to Kelvin waves, 13% to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and 19% are not attributed to any equatorial wave. The fraction of tropical cyclones attributed to TD-type disturbances is consistent with previous findings. Past studies have also demonstrated that the MJO significantly modulates tropical cyclogenesis, but fewer storms are attributed to the MJO than any other wave type. This disparity arises from the difference between attribution and modulation. The MJO produces broad regions of favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, but the MJO alone might not determine when and where a storm will develop within these regions. Tropical cyclones contribute less than 17% of the power in any portion of the equatorial wave spectrum because tropical cyclones are relatively uncommon equatorward of 15deg latitude. In regions where they are active, however, tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20% of the warm season rainfall and up to 50% of the total variance. Tropical cyclone-related anomalies can significantly contaminate wave-filtered precipitation at the location of genesis. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Equatorial Pacific Productivity Events and Intervals in the Middle and late Miocene through XRF-Scanned Bulk Sediment Composition Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyle, M. W.; Stepanova, A.; Wilson, J. K.; Marcantonio, F.

2014-12-01

The equatorial Pacific is the largest open ocean productivity center, responsible for nearly half of global marine new production and about 40% of CaCO3 burial. Understanding how the equatorial Pacific upwelling system has evolved over the Neogene is critical to understand the evolution of the global carbon cycle. We know from reconnaissance studies that productivity in equatorial Pacific surface waters as well as dissolution driven by deep waters have strongly affected the sediment record. We have used calibrated XRF scanning to capture anomalies in equatorial Pacific upwelling and productivity at Milankovitch-resolving resolution since the early Miocene. The 8 elements calibrated in the XRF scans can be used to distinguish intervals of high carbonate dissolution from those of high productivity. Carbonate dissolution intervals are recorded by a drop of CaCO3 relative to Aeolian clays, with little change in the ratio between estimated opal and clay (estimated by TiO2). In contrast, high production intervals have high opal/TiO2 and low CaCO3. Low CaCO3 contents are caused partly by dilution, since high production skews tropical particulate rain to be more opal-rich relative to carbonate, and additional C-org rain can help to increase CaCO3 dissolution within near-surface sediments. We observe long-lived high production anomalies modulated by orbitally-driven climate variability. Prominent intervals are found at the end of the Miocene climate optimum (~ 14 Ma), interspersed with dissolution intervals in the Carbonate Crash interval (~9-11 Ma), and in the Biogenic Bloom interval (8-4.5 Ma). Using relationships among biogenic fluxes in modern equatorial sediment trap studies, especially the positive correlations between biogenic Ba , C-org, and CaCO3 fluxes, we find that the highest production intervals have much higher opal/C-org in the particulate rain, implying an inefficient carbon pump to the deep ocean. If confirmed, productivity was not as strong a feedback to atmospheric CO2 in the Miocene as it is in the Holocene.

Decadal variations of Pacific North Equatorial Current bifurcation from multiple ocean products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Fangguo; Wang, Qingye; Wang, Fujun; Hu, Dunxin

2014-02-01

In this study, we examine the decadal variations of the Pacific North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation latitude (NBL) averaged over upper 100 m and underlying dynamics over the past six decades using 11 ocean products, including seven kinds of ocean reanalyzes based on ocean data assimilation systems, two kinds of numerical simulations without assimilating observations and two kinds of objective analyzes based on in situ observations only. During the period of 1954-2007, the multiproduct mean of decadal NBL anomalies shows maxima around 1965/1966, 1980/1981, 1995/1996, and 2003/2004, and minima around 1958, 1971/1972, 1986/1987, and 2000/2001, respectively. The NBL decadal variations are related to the first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of decadal anomalies of sea surface height (SSH) in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean, which shows spatially coherent variation over the whole region and explains most of the total variance. Further regression and composite analyzes indicate that northerly/southerly NBL corresponds to negative/positive SSH anomalies and cyclonic/anticyclonic gyre anomalies in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean. These decadal circulation variations and thus the decadal NBL variations are governed mostly by the first two vertical modes and attribute the most to the first baroclinic mode. The NBL decadal variation is highly positively correlated with the tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) around the zero time lag. With a lead of about half the decadal cycle the NBL displays closer but negative relationship to TPDV in four ocean products, possibly manifesting the dynamical role of the circulation in the northwestern tropical Pacific in the phase-shifting of TPDV.

Interannual coherent variability of SSTA and SSHA in the Tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, J. Q.

2012-01-01

Sea surface height derived from the multiple ocean satellite altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS, Envisat et al.) and sea surface temperature from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) over 1993-2008 are analyzed to investigate the coherent patterns between the interannual variability of the sea surface and subsurface in the Tropical Indian Ocean, by jointly adopting Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Extended Associate Pattern Analysis (EAPA) methods. Results show that there are two dominant coherent modes with the nearly same main period of about 3-5 yr, accounting for 86 % of the total covariance in all, but 90° phase difference between them. The primary pattern is characterized by a east-west dipole mode associated with the mature phase of ENSO, and the second presents a sandwich mode having one sign anomalies along Sumatra-Java coast and northeast of Madagascar, whilst an opposite sign between the two regions. The robust correlations of the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) with sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the leading modes indicate a strong interaction between them, though the highest correlation coefficient appears with a time lag. And there may be some physical significance with respect to ocean dynamics implied in SSHA variability. Analyzing results show that the features of oceanic waves with basin scale, of which the Rossby wave is prominent, are apparent in the dominant modes. It is further demonstrated from the EAPA that the equatorial eastward Kelvin wave and off-equatorial westward Rossby wave as well as their reflection in the east and west boundary, respectively, are important dynamic mechanisms in the evolution of the two leading coherent patterns. Results of the present study suggest that the upper ocean thermal variations on the timescale of interannual coherent with the ocean dynamics in spatial structure and temporal evolution are mainly attributed to the ocean waves.

North Pacific Meridional Mode over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, S. C.; Charles, C. D.; Amaya, D. J.; Miller, A. J.

2016-12-01

The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) has been increasingly recognized as an influential mode of variability for channeling extratropical anomalies to the equatorial ocean-atmosphere system. The PMM has been identified as an important precursor for ENSO, a source of much decadal power in the tropical Pacific, and is potentially intensifying. It is still unknown why the Pacific Meridional Mode might be intensifying; most arguments center around the changing mean state associated with anthropogenic global warming. There are a number of processes by which the background state could influence the PMM: altering the location of trade winds, the characteristics of stochastic forcing, the sensitivity of latent heat flux to surface wind anomalies, the wind response to SST anomalies, or changing the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) structure. Recent work has found that the PMM is particularly sensitive to ITCZ shifts in intensity and location (using a simple linear coupled model, [Martinez-Villalobos and Vimont 2016]). Over the last millennium the ITCZ has experienced epochs of notable latitudinal shifts to balance the cross equatorial energy transport. Here we investigate how the strength of the PMM may have varied with these shifts in the ITCZ over the Common Era using the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME). We assess the strength of the PMM pathway by the degree of air-sea coupling and the amplitude of tropical decadal variability. We expect the ITCZ location and the degree of air-sea coupling (WES feedback) to play a critical role in determining the effectiveness and intensity of the PMM pathway. We verify our inferences in the LME with coral paleoproxy records from the central tropical Pacific. Chiefly we target records from the Line Islands (spanning 1°N to 6°N) to infer variations in the location of the ITCZ and the amplitude of decadal variability. This work enables us to discuss the idea of an intensifying PMM in a more historical context.

Towards developing an analytical procedure of defining the equatorial electrojet for correcting satellite magnetic anomaly data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ravat, Dhananjay; Hinze, William J.

1991-01-01

Analysis of the total magnetic intensity MAGSAT data has identified and characterized the variability of ionospheric current effects as reflected in the geomagnetic field as a function of longitude, elevation, and time (daily as well as monthly variations). This analysis verifies previous observations in POGO data and provides important boundary conditions for theoretical studies of ionospheric currents. Furthermore, the observations have led to a procedure to remove these temporal perturbations from lithospheric MAGSAT magnetic anomaly data based on 'along-the-dip-latitude' averages from dawn and dusk data sets grouped according to longitudes, time (months), and elevation. Using this method, high-resolution lithospheric magnetic anomaly maps have been prepared of the earth over a plus or minus 50 deg latitude band. These maps have proven useful in the study of the structures, nature, and processes of the lithosphere.

New perspectives of the interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.

2003-04-01

What is the dominant mode of the interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon? Our analysis reveals two off-equatorial surface anticyclones (or cyclones) dominating the evolving A-AM anomalies. One anomalous anticyclone is located over the South Indian Ocean (SIO) during the El Niño developing year and the other occurs over the western North Pacific (WNP), which attains maximum intensity during El Niño mature and persists through the subsequent spring and summer. What mechanisms are responsible for this dominant mode? It has been a prevailing perspective that El Niño/La Niña and warm-pool SST anomalies primarily force the A-AM anomalies. In contrasting to this traditional view, we demonstrate that El Niño forcing alone can explain neither the amplification of the SIO anticyclone nor the maintenance of the WNP anticyclone; the warm pool SST anomalies are largely a result of the anomalous monsoon. We propose that the dominant A-AM mode is attributed to the combined effect of remote El Niño forcing, local monsoon-warm ocean interaction, and the annual cycle of background circulation. The local atmosphere-warm ocean interaction contributes considerably to these monsoon anomalies. The atmosphere-ocean conditions in the SIO and WNP are similar, namely, an east-west anomalous SST dipole with cold water to the east and warm water to the west of the anticyclone center. These coherent conditions result from a positive feedback between the anomalous descending Rossby waves and SST dipole, which intensifies the SIO anticyclone during El Niño growth and maintains the WNP anticyclone during its decay. The atmosphere-ocean interaction in the two regions share common wind-evaporation/entrainment and cloud/radiation feedbacks but differ in the roles of oceanic dynamics in SST variability. The annual cycle of the atmospheric background circulation, on one hand, controls the nature of the local atmosphere-warm ocean interaction; on the other hand, considerably modifies the atmospheric response to remote El Niño forcing. During the summer of El Niño development, a tilted anticyclonic ridge originating from the maritime continent and extending to south India exhibits considerable equatorial asymmetry, which results from the effects of easterly vertical shear on Rossby waves. The extended SVD results also reveal a prominent biennial tendency of the A-AM anomalies, suggesting that the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) is essentially a phenomenon concurring with the turnabout of El Niño and La Niña events. The understanding obtained in this study leads to a new paradigm for TBO.

Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, Scott; Colman, Rob

2006-02-01

Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial “ wings” in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit “ENSO-like” decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency (reddens the spectrum) of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. At low frequencies, dissipation acts as an additional low pass filter that becomes more effective, as latitude increases. At the same time, ENSO-driven off-equatorial surface heating anomalies drive mixed layer temperature responses in both hemispheres. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of surface heat fluxes by the surface mixed layer act to low pass filter the ENSO-forcing. The resulting off-equatorial variability is therefore more coherent with low pass filtered (decadal) ENSO indices [e.g. NINO3 sea-surface temperature (SST)] than with unfiltered ENSO indices. Consequently large correlations between variability and NINO3 extend further poleward on decadal time-scales than they do on interannual time-scales. This explains why decadal ENSO-like patterns have a broader meridional structure than their interannual counterparts. This difference in appearance can occur even if ENSO indices do not have any predictability beyond interannual time-scales. The wings around 15-20°S, and sub-surface variability at many other locations are predictable on interannual and multi-year time-scales. This includes westward propagating internal RWs within about 25° of the equator. The slowest of these take up to 4 years to reach the western boundary. This sub-surface predictability has significant oceanographic interest. However, it is linked to only low levels of SST variability. Consequently, extrapolation of delayed action oscillator theory to decadal time-scales might not be justified.

Variation of the topside ionosphere during the last solar minimum period studied with multisatellite measurements of electron density and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Kwangsun; Kwak, Youngsil; Kim, Yong Ha; Park, Jaeheung; Lee, Junchan; Min, Kyoungwook

2016-07-01

Using the ionospheric measurements of CHAMP, DEMETER, and DMSP F15, the seasonal and spatial variations of the topside ionosphere during the last solar minimum period were investigated and compared with ionospheric models. In all the satellite measurements, equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) shows clearly longitudinal asymmetry with wave number -3 or -4 patterns. Anomalous increases of Ne in the nighttime surpassing daytime Ne, known as the Weddell Sea anomaly (WSA) or midlatitude summer nighttime anomaly (MSNA), were also observed in the global Ne distribution with differences in detailed geometry of the geomagnetic field according to the altitude. In the nighttime ionosphere, the reduced Te in the equatorial region at the DMSP altitude, identified as the equatorial plasma temperature anomaly (EPTA), was ascribed to the leftover of the prereversal enhancement of the upward plasma drift. Though the EIA, WSA, MSNA, and EPTA are all associated with the upward plasma movement, the difference in the thermal evolution is ascribable to the geometry of drift in which the plasma moves across the geomagnetic field line for the EIA and the EPTA, while along the field line for the WSA and the MSNA.

The impact of the 17 March 2015- St. Patrick's Day storm on the evolutionary pattern of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly over the Indian longitudes using high resolution spatio-temporal TEC maps - New insights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, S.; Sunda, S.; Sridharan, R.

2016-12-01

The impact of the St. Patrick's Day storm (17 March 2015) on the major equatorial electro-dynamical process viz., the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) has been assessed using 2D (lat. x long.) total electron content (TEC) maps generated from the ground based SBAS (Satellite Based Augmentation System) enabled receiver data. The various aspects of EIA viz., i) evolution/devolution, ii) longitudinal structure, and iii) its variability during different phases of a geomagnetic storm have been brought out. These 2D TEC maps, which have a large latitudinal (5̊ S-45° N) and longitudinal (55-110° E) coverage, show the complete reversal in the longitudinal structure of EIA during the recovery phase of the storm as compared to the quiet day. These results have been explained in the light of the combined effects of the storm associated processes viz., i) the penetration electric fields of magnetosphere origin, ii) storm induced thermospheric winds, and iii) activation of the consequent disturbance dynamo, effectively distorting the longitudinal wave number 4 (WN4) structure of the EIA. It has been shown unambiguously that even a separation of few degrees in longitude ( 30̊) could experience significantly different forcings. The relevance and the far reaching consequences of the study in the light of the current trends and requirements for reliable satellite based navigation are highlighted.

The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

2018-01-01

The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Evolution of Tropical and Extratropical Precipitation Anomalies During the 1997 to 1999 ENSO Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric; Bolvin, David; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The 1997-1999 ENSO period was very powerful, but also well observed. Multiple satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a quantitative analysis of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and elsewhere accompanying the 1997-99 ENSO cycle. An examination of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. Furthermore, westerly wind burst events may have maintained the drought over the Maritime Continent. The warming of the equatorial Pacific was then followed by an increase in convection. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured substantial changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. The global precipitation patterns for this event were in good agreement with the strong consistent ENSO-related precipitation signals identified in earlier studies. Differences included a shift in precipitation anomalies over Africa during the 1997-98 El Nino and unusually wet conditions over northeast Australia during the later stages of the El Nino. Also, the typically wet region in the north tropical Pacific was mostly dry during the 1998-99 La Nina. Reanalysis precipitation was compared to observations during this time period and substantial differences were noted. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations.

Variability of the Tropical Ocean Surface Temperatures at Decadal-Multidecadal Timescales. Part I: The Atlantic Ocean.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Vikram M.

1998-09-01

Gridded time series from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas were analyzed with a variety of techniques to identify spatial structures and oscillation periods of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations at decadal timescales, and to develop physical interpretations of statistical patterns of decadal SST variations. Each time series was 110 yr (1882-1991) long. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were compared with decadal variations in a 74-yr-long (1912-85) north Nordeste Brazil rainfall time series and a 106-yr-long (1886-1991) tropical Atlantic cyclone activity index time series. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were also compared with decadal variations in the extratropical Atlantic SST.Multiyear to multidecadal variations in the cross-equatorial dipole pattern identified as a dominant empirical pattern of the tropical Atlantic SST variations in earlier and present studies are shown to be variations in the approximately north-south gradient of SST anomalies. It is also shown that there was no dynamical-thermodynamical, dipole mode of SST variations during the analysis period. There was a distinct decadal timescale (12-13 yr) of SST variations in the tropical South Atlantic, whereas no distinct decadal timescale was found in the tropical North Atlantic SST variations. Approximately 80% of the coherent decadal variance in the cross-equatorial SST gradient was `explained' by coherent decadal oscillations in the tropical South Atlantic SSTs. There were three, possibly physical, modes of decadal variations in the tropical Atlantic SSTs during the analysis period. In the more energetic mode of the North Atlantic decadal SST variations, anomalies traveled into the tropical North Atlantic from the extratropical North Atlantic along the eastern boundary of the basin. The anomalies strengthened and resided in the tropical North Atlantic for several years, then frequently traveled northward into the mid-high-latitude North Atlantic along the western boundary of the basin, and completed a clockwise rotation around the North Atlantic basin. In the less energetic North Atlantic decadal mode, SST anomalies originated in the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic near the African coast, and traveled northwestward and southward. In the South Atlantic decadal SST mode, anomalies either developed in situ or traveled into the tropical South Atlantic from the subtropical South Atlantic along the eastern boundary of the basin. The anomalies strengthened and resided in the tropical South Atlantic for several years, then frequently traveled southward into the subtropical South Atlantic along the western boundary of the basin, and completed a counterclockwise rotation around the South Atlantic basin. These decadal modes were not a permanent feature of the tropical Atlantic SST variations. The tropical North and South Atlantic SST anomalies frequently extended across the equator. Uncorrelated alignments of decadal SST anomalies having opposite signs on two sides of the equator occasionally created the apperance of a dipole.Independent analyses of the north Nordeste Brazil rainfall showed physical consistency and high coherence with the cross-equatorial SST gradient oscillations at 12-13-yr period. The tropical Atlantic cyclone index showed physical consistency but moderate coherence with the tropical North Atlantic decadal SST variations. The quasi-regularity of the 12-13-yr oscillations in the cross-equatorial SST gradient may provide an opportunity for long lead-time, skillful predictions of climate anomalies in the tropical Atlantic sector.

The impact of ENSO on regional chlorophyll-a anomaly in the Arafura Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewi, D. M. P. R.; Fatmasari, D.; Kurniawan, A.; Munandar, M. A.

2018-03-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific. ENSO influences ocean climate variability in Indonesia including the Arafura Sea. The relationship between oceanic chlorophyll-a and ENSO has been the focus of study over the past decade. Here we examine the impact of ENSO on regional chlorophyll-a anomaly in the Papua waters using 14 years of chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature (SST) data from AQUA MODIS and sea level anomaly data from AVISO. It is found that when El Niño events occur the negative SST anomaly in the Papua waters as well as the enhanced upwelling cause the increase of chlorophyll-a concentration. The highest chlorophyll-a concentration (> 1 mg–cm-3) occured during El Niño and observed around the Aru archipelago. In contrast during La Niña event, the positive SST anomaly in Papua waters and the suppressed upwelling cause the decrease of chlorophyll-a concentration. Our results suggest that during El Niño (La Niña), the enhanced (suppressed) upwelling related to the significant decreasing (increasing) of sea level anomaly.

Solar Cycle Effects on Equatorial Electrojet Strength and Low Latitude Ionospheric Variability (P10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veenadhari, B.; Alex, S.

2006-11-01

veena_iig@yahoo.co.in The most obvious indicators of the activity of a solar cycle are sunspots, flares, plages, and soon. These are intimately linked to the solar magnetic fields, heliospheric processes which exhibit complex but systematic variations. The changes in geomagnetic activity, as observed in the ground magnetic records follow systematic correspondence with the solar activity conditions. Thus the transient variations in the magnetic field get modified by differing solar conditions. Also the solar cycle influences the Earth causing changes in geomagnetic activity, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. Daily variations in the ground magnetic field are produced by different current systems in the earth’s space environment flowing in the ionosphere and magnetosphere which has a strong dependence on latitude and longitude of the location. The north-south (Horizontal) configuration of the earth’s magnetic field over the equator is responsible for the narrow band of current system over the equatorial latitudes and is called the Equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and is a primary driver for Equatorial Ionization anomaly (EIA). Equatorial electric fields and plasma drifts play the fundamental roles on the morphology of the low latitude ionosphere and strongly vary during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. Quantitative study is done to illustrate the development process of EEJ and its influence on ionospheric parameters. An attempt is also made to examine and discuss the response of the equatorial electrojet parameters to the fast varying conditions of solar wind and interplanetary parameters.

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

1994-01-01

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Bohua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kinter, James L.; Wu, Zhaohua; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Observations of equatorial ionization anomaly over Africa and Middle East during a year of deep minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolaji, Olawale; Owolabi, Oluwafisayo; Falayi, Elijah; Jimoh, Emmanuel; Kotoye, Afolabi; Odeyemi, Olumide; Rabiu, Babatunde; Doherty, Patricia; Yizengaw, Endawoke; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Adeniyi, Jacob; Kaka, Rafiat; Onanuga, Kehinde

2017-01-01

In this work, we investigated the veracity of an ion continuity equation in controlling equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) morphology using total electron content (TEC) of 22 GPS receivers and three ground-based magnetometers (Magnetic Data Acquisition System, MAGDAS) over Africa and the Middle East (Africa-Middle East) during the quietest periods. Apart from further confirmation of the roles of equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and integrated equatorial electrojet (IEEJ) in determining hemispheric extent of EIA crest over higher latitudes, we found some additional roles played by thermospheric meridional neutral wind. Interestingly, the simultaneous observations of EIA crests in both hemispheres of Africa-Middle East showed different morphology compared to that reported over Asia. We also observed interesting latitudinal twin EIA crests domiciled at the low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Our results further showed that weak EEJ strength associated with counter electrojet (CEJ) during sunrise hours could also trigger twin EIA crests over higher latitudes.

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, In-Hong; Min, Seung-Ki; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Weller, Evan; Kim, Seon Tae

2017-04-01

This study assessed the anthropogenic contribution to the 2015 record-breaking high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Considering a close link between extreme warm events in these regions, we conducted a joint attribution analysis using a fraction of attributable risk approach. Probability of occurrence of such extreme anomalies and long-term trends for the two oceanic regions were compared between CMIP5 multi-model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Results show that the excessive warming in both regions is well beyond the range of natural variability and robustly attributable to human activities due to greenhouse gas increase. We further explored associated mechanisms including the Bjerknes feedback and background anthropogenic warming. It is concluded that background warming was the main contribution to the 2015 extreme SST event over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean on a developing El Niño condition, which in turn induced the extreme SST event over the tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric bridge effect.

Relationship of boreal summer 10-20-day and 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the tropical western North Pacific to tropical Indo-Pacific SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Renguang; Cao, Xi

2017-06-01

The present study contrasts interannual variations in the intensity of boreal summer 10-20-day and 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) over the tropical western North Pacific and their factors. A pronounced difference is found in the relationship of the two ISOs to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The 10-20-day ISO intensity is enhanced during El Niño developing summer, whereas the 30-60-day ISO intensity is enhanced during La Niña decaying summer. The above different relationship is interpreted as follows. The equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies modify vertical wind shear, lower-level moisture, and vertical motion in a southeast-northwest oriented band from the equatorial western Pacific to the tropical western North Pacific where the 10-20-day ISOs originate and propagate. These background field changes modulate the amplitude of 10-20-day ISOs. Preceding equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies induce SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean in summer, which in turn modify vertical wind shear and vertical motion over the tropical western North Pacific. The modified background fields influence the amplitude of the 30-60-day ISOs when they reach the tropical western North Pacific from the equatorial region. A feedback of ISO intensity on local SST change is identified in the tropical western North Pacific likely due to a net effect of ISOs on surface heat flux anomalies. This feedback is more prominent from the 10-20-day than the 30-60-day ISO intensity change.

Variability of Thermosphere and Ionosphere Responses to Solar Flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Chamberlin, Philip C.; Solomon, Stanley C.

2011-01-01

We investigated how the rise rate and decay rate of solar flares affect the thermosphere and ionosphere responses to them. Model simulations and data analysis were conducted for two flares of similar magnitude (X6.2 and X5.4) that had the same location on the solar limb, but the X6.2 flare had longer rise and decay times. Simulated total electron content (TEC) enhancements from the X6.2 and X5.4 flares were 6 total electron content units (TECU) and approximately 2 TECU, and the simulated neutral density enhancements were approximately 15% -20% and approximately 5%, respectively, in reasonable agreement with observations. Additional model simulations showed that for idealized flares with the same magnitude and location, the thermosphere and ionosphere responses changed significantly as a function of rise and decay rates. The Neupert Effect, which predicts that a faster flare rise rate leads to a larger EUV enhancement during the impulsive phase, caused a larger maximum ion production enhancement. In addition, model simulations showed that increased E x B plasma transport due to conductivity increases during the flares caused a significant equatorial anomaly feature in the electron density enhancement in the F region but a relatively weaker equatorial anomaly feature in TEC enhancement, owing to dominant contributions by photochemical production and loss processes. The latitude dependence of the thermosphere response correlated well with the solar zenith angle effect, whereas the latitude dependence of the ionosphere response was more complex, owing to plasma transport and the winter anomaly.

Magnetospheric disturbance effects on the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) - An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdu, M. A.; Sobral, J. H. A.; de Paula, E. R.; Batista, I. S.

1991-08-01

The EIA response to magnetospheric disturbance processes is reviewed. It is concluded that the direct penetration to equatorial latitudes of magnetospheric electric fields and the thermospheric disturbances involving winds, electric fields, and composition changes produce significant alteration in the EIA morphology and dynamics.

Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.

2018-05-01

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

Influence of Surface Processes over Africa on the Atlantic Marine ITCZ and South American Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagos, Samson M.; Cook, Kerry H.

2005-12-01

Previous studies show that the climatological precipitation over South America, particularly the Nordeste region, is influenced by the presence of the African continent. Here the influence of African topography and surface wetness on the Atlantic marine ITCZ (AMI) and South American precipitation are investigated.Cross-equatorial flow over the Atlantic Ocean introduced by north south asymmetry in surface conditions over Africa shifts the AMI in the direction of the flow. African topography, for example, introduces an anomalous high over the southern Atlantic Ocean and a low to the north. This results in a northward migration of the AMI and dry conditions over the Nordeste region.The implications of this process on variability are then studied by analyzing the response of the AMI to soil moisture anomalies over tropical Africa. Northerly flow induced by equatorially asymmetric perturbations in soil moisture over northern tropical Africa shifts the AMI southward, increasing the climatological precipitation over northeastern South America. Flow associated with an equatorially symmetric perturbation in soil moisture, however, has a very weak cross-equatorial component and very weak influence on the AMI and South American precipitation. The sensitivity of the AMI to soil moisture perturbations over certain regions of Africa can possibly improve the skill of prediction.

Magnetospheric disturbance effects on the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) : an overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdu, M. A.; Sobral, J. H. A.; de Paula, E. R.; Batista, I. S.

1992-12-01

The Equatorial lonization Anomaly (EIA) development can undergo drastic modification in the form of an anomalous occurrence at local times outside that of its quiet time development and/or inhibition/enhancement at local times of its normal occurrences. This happens for disturbed electrodynamic conditions of the global ionosphere-thermosphere-magnetosphere system, consequent upon the triggering of a magnetospheric storm event. Direct penetration to equatorial latitudes of the magnetospheric electric fields and the thermospheric disturbances involving winds, electric fields and composition changes produce significant alteration in the EIA morphology and dynamics. Results on statistical behaviour based on accumulated ground-based data sets, and those from recent theoretical modelling efforts and from satellite and ground-based observations, are reviewed. Some outstanding problems of the EIA response to magnetospheric disturbances that deserve attention in the coming years are pointed out.

Holocene Deep Ocean Variability Detected with Individual Benthic Foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bova, S. C.; Herbert, T.; Fox-Kemper, B.

2015-12-01

Historical observations of deep ocean temperatures (>700 m water depth) show apparently unprecedented rates of warming over the past half century that parallel observed surface warming, on the order of 0.1°C/decade (Purkey and Johnson 2010). Most water masses below 700 m depth, however, have not been at the sea surface where they exchange heat and carbon with the atmosphere since well before industrialization (Gebbie and Huybers 2012). How then has the heat content of isolated deep water masses responded to climate change over the last century? In models, wave mechanisms propagate thermocline anomalies quickly (Masuda et al. 2010), but these dynamics are not fully understood. We therefore turn to the sedimentary record to constrain the bounds of earlier variability from Holocene anomalies. The oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of individual benthic foraminifera provide approximately month-long snapshots of the temperature and salinity of ambient deep water during calcification. We exploit the short lifespan of these organisms to reconstruct variability in δ18Oshell, and thus the variability in deep water temperature and salinity, during five 200-yr Holocene intervals at 1000 m water depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP). Modern variability in benthic foraminifer δ18O was too weak to detect but variability at 1000 m water depth in the EEP exceeded our detection limit during two Holocene intervals at high confidence (p<0.01), with δ18O anomalies up to ~0.6 ± 0.15‰ that persist for a month or longer. Although the source of these anomalies remains speculative, rapid communication between the surface and deep ocean that operates on human timescales, faster than previously recognized, or intrinsic variability that has not been active during the history of ocean observations are potential explanations. Further work combining models and high-resolution proxy data is needed to identify the mechanism and global extent of this type of subsurface variability in the global oceans.

An empirical model of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) near the crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajra, Rajkumar; Chakraborty, Shyamal Kumar; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; DasGupta, Ashish; Echer, Ezequiel; Brum, Christiano G. M.; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Sobral, José Humberto Andrade

2016-07-01

We present a geomagnetic quiet time (Dst > -50 nT) empirical model of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) for the northern equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest over Calcutta, India. The model is based on the 1980-1990 TEC measurements from the geostationary Engineering Test Satellite-2 (ETS-2) at the Haringhata (University of Calcutta, India: 22.58° N, 88.38° E geographic; 12.09° N, 160.46° E geomagnetic) ionospheric field station using the technique of Faraday rotation of plane polarized VHF (136.11 MHz) signals. The ground station is situated virtually underneath the northern EIA crest. The monthly mean TEC increases linearly with F10.7 solar ionizing flux, with a significantly high correlation coefficient (r = 0.89-0.99) between the two. For the same solar flux level, the TEC values are found to be significantly different between the descending and ascending phases of the solar cycle. This ionospheric hysteresis effect depends on the local time as well as on the solar flux level. On an annual scale, TEC exhibits semiannual variations with maximum TEC values occurring during the two equinoxes and minimum at summer solstice. The semiannual variation is strongest during local noon with a summer-to-equinox variability of ~50-100 TEC units. The diurnal pattern of TEC is characterized by a pre-sunrise (0400-0500 LT) minimum and near-noon (1300-1400 LT) maximum. Equatorial electrodynamics is dominated by the equatorial electrojet which in turn controls the daytime TEC variation and its maximum. We combine these long-term analyses to develop an empirical model of monthly mean TEC. The model is validated using both ETS-2 measurements and recent GNSS measurements. It is found that the present model efficiently estimates the TEC values within a 1-σ range from the observed mean values.

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy

1999-01-01

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.; Borovikov, Anna; Schopf, Paul S.

1999-01-01

Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.

The OMZ and nutrient features as a signature of interannual and low-frequency variability in the Peruvian upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graco, Michelle I.; Purca, Sara; Dewitte, Boris; Castro, Carmen G.; Morón, Octavio; Ledesma, Jesús; Flores, Georgina; Gutiérrez, Dimitri

2017-10-01

Over the last decades, the Humboldt Current upwelling ecosystem, particularly the northern component off the coast of Peru, has drawn the interest of the scientific community because of its unique characteristics: it is the upwelling system with the biggest catch productivity despite the fact it is embedded in a shallow and intense oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). It is also an area of intense nitrogen loss and anammox activity and experiences large interannual variability associated with the equatorial remote forcing. In this context, we examined the oceanographic and biogeochemical variability associated with the OMZ off central Peru from a monthly time series (1996-2011) recorded off the coast of Callao (12° 02' S, 77° 29' W). The data reveal a rich spectrum of variability in the OMZ that includes frequencies ranging from seasonal to interannual scales. Due to the efficient oceanic teleconnection off Peru, the observed variability is interpreted in the light of an estimate of the equatorial Kelvin wave contribution to sea level anomalies considering the peculiarities of its vertical structure (i.e., the first two baroclinic modes). The span of the data set allows us to contrast two OMZ regimes. The strong regime is associated with the strong 1997-1998 equatorial Pacific El Niño, during which the OMZ adjusted to Kelvin-wave-induced downwelling conditions that switched off the upwelling and drastically reduced nutrient availability. The weak regime corresponds to the post-2000 period associated with the occurrence of moderate central Pacific El Niño events and enhanced equatorial Kelvin wave activity, in which mean upwelling conditions are maintained. It is shown that the characteristics of the coupling between physics and biogeochemistry is distinct between the two regimes with the weak regime being associated with a larger explained variance in biogeochemical properties not linearly related to the ENSO oceanic teleconnection. The data also reveal a long-term trend from 1999 corresponding to a deepening of the oxygen-deficient waters and warming. The implications of our results for understanding the OMZ dynamics off Peru are discussed.

Investigation of Axial Electric Field Measurements with Grounded-Wire TEM Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Nan-nan; Xue, Guo-qiang; Li, Hai; Hou, Dong-yang

2018-01-01

The grounded-wire transient electromagnetic (TEM) surveying is often performed along the equatorial direction with its observation lines paralleling to the transmitting wire with a certain transmitter-receiver distance. However, such method takes into account only the equatorial component of the electromagnetic field, and a little effort has been made on incorporating the other major component along the transmitting wire, here denoted as axial field. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of its fundamental characteristics and guide the designing of the corresponding observation system for reliable anomaly detection, this study for the first time investigates the axial electric field from three crucial aspects, including its decay curve, plane distribution, and anomaly sensitivity, through both synthetic modeling and real application to one major coal field in China. The results demonstrate a higher sensitivity to both high- and low-resistivity anomalies by the electric field in axial direction and confirm its great potentials for robust anomaly detection in the subsurface.

Models of Uranium continuum radio emission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romig, Joseph H.; Evans, David R.; Sawyer, Constance B.; Schweitzer, Andrea E.; Warwick, James W.

1987-01-01

Uranium continuum radio emission detected by the Voyager 2 Planetary Radio Astronomy experiment during the January 1986 encounter is considered. The continuum emissions comprised four components (equatorial emissions, anomaly emissions, strong nightside emissions, and weak nightside emissions) associated with different sources. The equatorial emissions appeared most prominently during the days before closest approach and extended from 40 kHz or below to about 120 kHz. The anomaly emissions were seen about 12 hours before closest approach and extended to about 250 kHz. The agreement found between Miranda's phase and strong radio emission at 20.4 kHz, just after closest approach, suggests intense dynamic activity on the Miranda L shell.

Nonmigrating tidal modulation of the equatorial thermosphere and ionosphere anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Jiuhou; Thayer, Jeffrey P.; Wang, Wenbin; Yue, Jia; Dou, Xiankang

2014-04-01

The modulation of nonmigrating tides on both the ionospheric equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and the equatorial thermosphere anomaly (ETA) is investigated on the basis of simulations from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). Our simulations demonstrate the distinct features of the EIA and ETA seen in observations after the inclusion of field-aligned ion drag in the model. Both the EIA and the ETA in the constant local time frame display an obvious zonal wave-4 structure associated with the modulation of nonmigrating tides. However, the modeled EIA and ETA show a primary zonal wave-1 structure when only the migrating tides are specified at the model lower boundary. Our simulations reveal that the zonal wave-4 structure of the ETA under both low and high solar activity conditions is mainly caused by the direct response of the upper thermosphere to the diurnal eastward wave number 3 and semidiurnal eastward wave number 2 nonmigrating tides from the lower atmosphere. There is a minor contribution from the ion-neutral coupling. The zonal wave-4 structure of the EIA is also caused by these nonmigrating tides but through the modulation of the neutral wind dynamo.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation

Science.gov Websites

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation Time longitude section of Anomalous OLR 850 hecto Temperatures anomalies Time series of weekly sea surface temperatures anomalies for the 4 Niño regions Time (OLR) Pentad mean and anomalous OLR Time-longitude section of anomalous OLR 850-hPa Zonal Wind Time

Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian

Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: 1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared withmore » El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; 2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; 3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and 4) the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different.« less

Do MAGSAT anomalies contain a record of past and present-day mantle convection under South America?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, D. A.

1985-01-01

Global anomaly maps from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Magnetic Field Satellite (MAGSAT) have been spatially filtered to reduce the prominence of long-wavelength east-west bands and to improve the discrimination of anomalies within structural provinces. Previous research suggested a correlation between total-field MAGSAT anomaly lows in equatorial regions with crustal bodies of relatively high average magnetic susceptibility (such as Archaean shields), and of anomaly highs with bodies of low susceptibility (such as deep parts of basins). These correlations reverse at higher latitudes.

Development and Validation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model With Thermosphere and Ionosphere Extension (WACCM-X 2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Han-Li; Bardeen, Charles G.; Foster, Benjamin T.; Lauritzen, Peter; Liu, Jing; Lu, Gang; Marsh, Daniel R.; Maute, Astrid; McInerney, Joseph M.; Pedatella, Nicholas M.; Qian, Liying; Richmond, Arthur D.; Roble, Raymond G.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Vitt, Francis M.; Wang, Wenbin

2018-02-01

Key developments have been made to the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X). Among them, the most important are the self-consistent solution of global electrodynamics, and transport of O+ in the F-region. Other ionosphere developments include time-dependent solution of electron/ion temperatures, metastable O+ chemistry, and high-cadence solar EUV capability. Additional developments of the thermospheric components are improvements to the momentum and energy equation solvers to account for variable mean molecular mass and specific heat, a new divergence damping scheme, and cooling by O(3P) fine structure. Simulations using this new version of WACCM-X (2.0) have been carried out for solar maximum and minimum conditions. Thermospheric composition, density, and temperatures are in general agreement with measurements and empirical models, including the equatorial mass density anomaly and the midnight density maximum. The amplitudes and seasonal variations of atmospheric tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are in good agreement with observations. Although global mean thermospheric densities are comparable with observations of the annual variation, they lack a clear semiannual variation. In the ionosphere, the low-latitude E × B drifts agree well with observations in their magnitudes, local time dependence, seasonal, and solar activity variations. The prereversal enhancement in the equatorial region, which is associated with ionospheric irregularities, displays patterns of longitudinal and seasonal variation that are similar to observations. Ionospheric density from the model simulations reproduces the equatorial ionosphere anomaly structures and is in general agreement with observations. The model simulations also capture important ionospheric features during storms.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

PubMed

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib

2016-07-12

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth's global surface temperature.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

PubMed Central

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth’s global surface temperature. PMID:27404090

Variability and trends of local/regional scale surface climate in northern Africa during the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djomou, Zéphirin Yepdo; Monkam, David; Woafo, Paul

2014-08-01

Four regions are detected in northern Africa (20° W-40° E, 0-30° N) by applying the cluster analysis method on the annual rainfall anomalies of the period 1901-2000. The first region (R1), an arid land, covers essentially the north of 17.75° N from west to east of the study zone. The second region (R2), a semiarid land with a Sahelian climate, less warm than the dry climate of R1, is centred on Chad, with almost regular extension to the west towards Mauritania, and to the east, including the north of the Central African Republic and the Sudan. The region 3 (R3), a wet land, is centred on the Ivory Coast and covers totally Liberia, the south part of Ghana, Togo, Benin and the southwest of Nigeria. The fourth region (R4), corresponding to the wet equatorial forest, covers a part of Senegal, the Central Africa, the south of Sudan and a part of Ethiopia. An analysis of observed temperature and precipitation variability and trends throughout the twentieth century over these regions is presented. Summer, winter and annual data are examined using a range of variability measures. Statistically, significant warming trends are found over the majority of regions. The trends have a magnitude of up to 1.5 K per century. Only a few precipitation trends are statistically significant. Regional temperature and precipitation show pronounced variability at scales from interannual to multi-decadal. The interannual variability shows significant variations and trends throughout the century, the latter being mostly negative for precipitation and both positive and negative for temperature. Temperature and precipitation anomalies show a chaotic-type behaviour in which the regional conditions oscillate around the long-term mean trend and occasionally fall into long-lasting (up to 10 years or more) anomaly regimes. A generally modest temporal correlation is found between anomalies of different regions and between temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same region. This correlation is mostly positive for temperature in cases of adjacent regions. Several cases of negative interregional precipitation anomaly correlation are found. The El Niño Southern Oscillation significantly affects the anomaly variability patterns over a number of regions, mainly regions 3 (R3) and 4 (R4), while the North Atlantic Oscillation significantly affects the variability over arid and semiarid regions, R1 and R2.

A new dipole index of the salinity anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Li, Junde; Liang, Chujin; Tang, Youmin; Dong, Changming; Chen, Dake; Liu, Xiaohui; Jin, Weifang

2016-04-07

With the increased interest in studying the sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA) of the tropical Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an index describing the dipole variability of the SSSA has been pursued recently. In this study, we first use a regional ocean model with a high spatial resolution to produce a high-quality salinity simulation during the period from 1982 to 2014, from which the SSSA dipole structure is identified for boreal autumn. On this basis, by further analysing the observed data, we define a dipole index of the SSSA between the central equatorial Indian Ocean (CEIO: 70°E-90°E, 5°S-5°N) and the region off the Sumatra-Java coast (SJC: 100°E-110°E, 13°S-3°S). Compared with previous SSSA dipole indices, this index has advantages in detecting the dipole signals and in characterizing their relationship to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) dipole variability. Finally, the mechanism of the SSSA dipole is investigated by dynamical diagnosis. It is found that anomalous zonal advection dominates the SSSA in the CEIO region, whereas the SSSA in the SJC region are mainly influenced by the anomalous surface freshwater flux. This SSSA dipole provides a positive feedback to the formation of the IOD events.

Observation of El Nino by the Nimbus-7 SMMR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hwang, P. H.; Macmillan, D. S.; Fu, C. C.; Kim, S. T.; Han, Daesoo; Gloersen, P.

1986-01-01

The quality of Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) derived SST, water vapor, and windspeed are assessed, and these parameters are used to study the El Nino event of 1982-1983 in the equatorial Pacific region from 120 deg to the South American coast. The features of the anomaly fields for these parameters, and the connections between these fields, are discussed. Anomaly fields are found to be qualitatively consistent with outgoing longwave radiation anomaly fields and wind vector anomaly fields.

Seasonal dependence of the "forecast parameter" based on the EIA characteristics for the prediction of Equatorial Spread F (ESF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thampi, S. V.; Ravindran, S.; Pant, T. K.; Devasia, C. V.; Sridharan, R.

2008-06-01

In an earlier study, Thampi et al. (2006) have shown that the strength and asymmetry of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA), obtained well ahead of the onset time of Equatorial Spread F (ESF) have a definite role on the subsequent ESF activity, and a new "forecast parameter" has been identified for the prediction of ESF. This paper presents the observations of EIA strength and asymmetry from the Indian longitudes during the period from August 2005 March 2007. These observations are made using the line of sight Total Electron Content (TEC) measured by a ground-based beacon receiver located at Trivandrum (8.5° N, 77° E, 0.5° N dip lat) in India. It is seen that the seasonal variability of EIA strength and asymmetry are manifested in the latitudinal gradients obtained using the relative TEC measurements. As a consequence, the "forecast parameter" also displays a definite seasonal pattern. The seasonal variability of the EIA strength and asymmetry, and the "forecast parameter" are discussed in the present paper and a critical value for has been identified for each month/season. The likely "skill factor" of the new parameter is assessed using the data for a total of 122 days, and it is seen that when the estimated value of the "forecast parameter" exceeds the critical value, the ESF is seen to occur on more than 95% of cases.

Model-based assessment of a Northwestern Tropical Pacific moored array to monitor intraseasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Danian; Zhu, Jiang; Shu, Yeqiang; Wang, Dongxiao; Wang, Weiqiang; Cai, Shuqun

2018-06-01

The Northwestern Tropical Pacific Ocean (NWTPO) moorings observing system, including 15 moorings, was established in 2013 to provide velocity profile data. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were carried out to assess the ability of the observation system to monitor intraseasonal variability in a pilot study, where ideal "mooring-observed" velocity was assimilated using Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) based on the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Because errors between the control and "nature" runs have a mesoscale structure, a random ensemble derived from 20-90-day bandpass-filtered nine-year model outputs is proved to be more appropriate for the NWTPO mooring array assimilation than a random ensemble derived from a 30-day running mean. The simulation of the intraseasonal currents in the North Equatorial Current (NEC), North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), and Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) areas can be improved by assimilating velocity profiles using a 20-90-day bandpass-filtered ensemble. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the intraseasonal zonal (U) and meridional velocity (V) above 500 m depth within the study area (between 0°N-18°N and 122°E-147°E) were reduced by 15.4% and 16.9%, respectively. Improvements in the downstream area of the NEC moorings transect were optimum where the RMSEs of the intraseasonal velocities above 500 m were reduced by more than 30%. Assimilating velocity profiles can have a positive impact on the simulation and forecast of thermohaline structure and sea level anomalies in the ocean.

The 2014-2015 Warming Anomaly in the Southern California Current System: Glider Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaba, K. D.; Rudnick, D. L.

2016-02-01

During 2014-2015, basin-wide patterns of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies affected surface waters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We present regional physical and biological effects of the warming, as observed by our autonomous underwater gliders in the southern California Current System (SCCS). Established in 2006, the California Glider Network provides sustained subsurface observations for monitoring the coastal effects of large-scale climate variability. Along repeat sections that extend to 350-500 km in offshore distance and 500 m in depth, Spray gliders have continuously occupied CalCOFI lines 66.7, 80, and 90 for nearly nine years. Following a sawtooth trajectory, the gliders complete each dive in approximately 3 hours and over 3 km. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and velocity. For each of the three lines, a comprehensive climatology has been constructed from the multiyear timeseries. The ongoing surface-intensified warming anomaly, which began locally in early 2014 and persists through present, is unprecedented in the glider climatology. Reaching up to 5°C, positive temperature anomalies have been generally confined to the upper 50 m and persistent for over 20 months. The timing of the warming was in phase along each glider line but out of phase with equatorial SST anomalies, suggesting a decoupling of tropical and mid-latitude dynamics. Concurrent physical oceanographic anomalies included a depressed thermocline and high stratification. An induced biological response was apparent in the deepening of the subsurface chlorophyll fluorescence maximum. Ancillary atmospheric data from the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model indicate that a combination of surface forcing anomalies, namely high downward heat flux and weak wind stress magnitude, caused the unusual warm, downwelling conditions. With a strong El Niño event in the forecast for winter 2015-2016, our sustained glider network will continue to measure the evolution of the shallow warm pool in the SCCS and its potential interaction with ENSO-related anomalies.

How Ocean Color Influences the Interplay Between Annual and Interannual Tropical Pacific Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammann, A. C.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2010-12-01

While the basic mechanisms responsible for ENSO have long been known, many details still evade our understanding. Since the behavior of the real climate system appears to be highly sensitive to such details, however, our ability to model, let alone predict it with any confidence has so far been rather restricted. Not only can small perturbations in many state variables lead to strongly amplified responses, but also do spatial and temporal scales of variability rarely occur in isolation from each other. Both points are born out in the study by Anderson et al. (2009), who removed surface chlorophyll in different regions of the tropical (but mostly off-equatorial) Pacific in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-ice model. Different removal patterns lead to large differences in the amplitudes of both ENSO and the equatorial annual cycle. Anderson et al.’s analysis focuses on ENSO and reveals that the transmission of off-equatorial perturbations to the equator happens mainly through a changed atmospheric response to SST anomalies. Here, we analyze the same data with respect to the annual cycle and how it interacts with ENSO. Guilyardi (2006) reports that observations and models alike show a zero-sum-type behavior of annual and ENSO-scale variability; increased spectral power in the annual band means decreased power in the ENSO band and vice versa. This is not the case for the different patterns of chlorophyll removal in our model, and hence it appears that this removal changes a fundamental part of its mean state. The dynamics of the annual cycle are likely influenced by oceanic meridional temperature advection, which provides another possible route for off-to-equatorial signal propagation. A common aspect of the tropical annual cycle in most coupled climate models is the presence of a double ITCZ instead of a single north-shifted one. Even though this appears to be unrelated to (albeit influenced by) the changes in ocean color, our model exhibits a much improved, dominantly northern ITCZ when compared with the GFDL CM2.1 model; all other components being the same, we use an isopycnal ocean model, whereas CM2.1 uses horizontal coordinates.

Study of the behaviour of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) during solar flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Malini; Astafyeva, Elvira

2014-05-01

A solar flare occurring in the sun's chromosphere is observed in various wavebands (radio to x-rays). The response of the solar flare which causes sudden changes in the earth's ionosphere is not yet well understood though investigations suggested that its impact depends on the size and location of occurrence of solar flare on sun. Considering this, we have carried an investigation to study the response of two strong and gradual solar flares: 2 Apr 2001 (X20, limb) and 7 Feb 2010 (M6.4, disk) on the earth's equatorial-low latitude regions using multi-technique observations of satellite and ground-based instruments. We found a weakening of strength of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in total electron content during both the flares as observed by TOPEX, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter measurements. The H component of the geomagnetic field also shows a sudden change at equatorial and low latitude stations in the sunlit hemisphere during the flare. The observations of ionosonde at low-latitudes indicate a strong absorption of higher-frequency radio signals. The detail response of these flare on EIA of the earth's ionosphere will be presented and discussed.

An observational study on the Strength and Movement of EIA in the Indian zone - Results from the Indian Tomography Experiment (CRABEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thampi, S. V.; Devasia, C. V.; Ravindran, S.; Pant, T. K.; Sridharan, R.

To investigate the equatorial ionospheric processes like the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) and Equatorial Spread F and their inter relationships, a network of five stations receiving the 150 and 400 MHz transmissions from the Low Earth Orbiting Satellites (LEOs) covering the region from Trivandrum (8.5°N, Dip ˜0.3N°) to New Delhi (28°N, Dip ˜20°N) is set up along the 77-78°E longitude. The receivers measure the relative phase of 150 MHz with respect to 400 MHz, which is proportional to the slant relative Total Electron Content (TEC) along the line of sight. These simultaneous TEC measurements are inverted to obtain the tomographic image of the latitudinal distribution of electron densities in the meridional plane. The inversion is done using the Algebraic Reconstruction Technique (ART). In this paper, the tomographic images of the equatorial ionosphere along the 77-78° E meridians are presented. The images indicate the movement of the anomaly crest, as well as the strength of EIA at various local times, which in turn control the over all electrodynamics of the evening time ionosphere, favoring the occurrence of Equatorial Spread F (ESF) irregularities. These features are discussed in detail under varying geophysical conditions. The results of the sensitivity analysis of the inversion algorithm using model ionospheres are also presented.

North Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability and Model Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Remote forcing from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local ocean-atmosphere feedback are important for climate variability over the North Tropical Atlantic. These two factors are extracted by the ensemble mean and inter-member difference of a 10-member Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment, in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but fully coupled to the atmosphere elsewhere. POGA reasonably captures main features of observed North Tropical Atlantic variability. ENSO forced and local North Tropical Atlantic modes (NTAMs) develop with wind-evaporation-SST feedback, explaining one third and two thirds of total variance respectively. Notable biases, however, exist. The seasonality of the simulated NTAM is delayed by one month, due to the late development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the model. A spurious band of enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) variance (SBEV) is identified over the northern equatorial Atlantic in POGA and 14 out of 23 CMIP5 models. The SBEV is especially pronounced in boreal spring and due to the combined effect of both anomalous atmospheric thermal forcing and oceanic vertical upwelling. While the tropical North Atlantic variability is only weakly correlated with the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM) in observations, the SBEV in CMIP5 produces conditions that drive and intensify the AZM variability via triggering the Bjerknes feedback. This partially explains why AZM is strong in some CMIP5 models even though the equatorial cold tongue and easterly trades are biased low.

The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1958-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Gallego, David; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Gimeno, Luis; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Hernandez, Emiliano; Calvo, Natalia

2003-07-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of the zonal wind in the stratosphere is analyzed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis (1958-2001). MultiTaper Method-Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency-domain analysis method, is applied to isolate significant spatially-coherent variability with narrowband oscillatory character. A quasibiennial oscillation is detected as the most intense coherent signal in the stratosphere, the signal being less intense in the lower levels. There is a clear downward propagation of the signal with time at low latitudes, not evident at mid and high latitudes. There are differences in the behavior of the signal over both hemispheres, being much weaker over the SH. In the NH an anomaly in the zonal wind field, in phase with the equatorial signal, is detected at approximately 60°N. Two different areas at subtropical latitudes are detected to be characterized by wind anomalies opposed to that of the equator.

The Southern Oscillation recorded in the δ18O of corals from Tarawa Atoll

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, Julia E.; Fairbanks, Richard G.

1990-10-01

In the western equatorial Pacific, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is characterized by precipitation variability associated with the migration of the Indonesian low pressure cell to the region of the date line and the equator. During ENSO events, Tarawa Atoll (1°N, 172°E) experiences heavy rainfall which has an estimated δ18O of about -8 to -10‰ δ18OSMOW. At Tarawa, sufficient precipitation of this composition falls during ENSO events to alter the δ18O and the salinity of the surface waters. Oxygen isotope records from two corals collected off the reef crest of Tarawa reflect rainfall variations associated with both weak and strong ENSO conditions, with approximately monthly resolution. Coral skeletal δ18O variations due to small sea surface temperature (SST) changes are secondary. These records demonstrate the remarkable ability of this technique to reconstruct variations in the position of the Indonesian Low from coral δ18O records in the western equatorial Pacific, a region which has few paleoclimatic records. The coral isotopic data correctly resolve the relative magnitudes of recent variations in the Southern Oscillation Index. Combining the Tarawa record with an oxygen isotopic history from a Galápagos Islands coral demonstrates the ability to distinguish the meteorologic (precipitation) and oceanographic (SST) anomalies that characterize ENSO events across the Pacific Basin over the period of common record (1960-1979). Comparison of the intensity of climatic anomalies at these two sites yields insight into the spatial variability of ENSO events. Isotope records from older corals can provide high-resolution, Pacific-wide reconstructions of ENSO behavior during periods of different climate boundary conditions.

Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, J.; Chaudhuri, S.; Mukherjee, S.; Chowdhury, A. Roy

2017-10-01

Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981-2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land-ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.

Extremes in East African hydroclimate and links to Indo-Pacific variability on interannual to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Kulüke, Marco; Tierney, Jessica E.

2018-04-01

East African hydroclimate exhibits considerable variability across a range of timescales, with implications for its population that depends on the region's two rainy seasons. Recent work demonstrated that current state-of-the-art climate models consistently underestimate the long rains in boreal spring over the Horn of Africa while overestimating the short rains in autumn. This inability to represent the seasonal cycle makes it problematic for climate models to project changes in East African precipitation. Here we consider whether this bias also has implications for understanding interannual and decadal variability in the East African long and short rains. Using a consistent framework with an unforced multi-century global coupled climate model simulation, the role of Indo-Pacific variability for East African rainfall is compared across timescales and related to observations. The dominant driver of East African rainfall anomalies critically depends on the timescale under consideration: Interannual variations in East African hydroclimate coincide with significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Indo-Pacific, including those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific, and are linked to changes in the Walker circulation, regional winds and vertical velocities over East Africa. Prolonged drought/pluvial periods in contrast exhibit anomalous SST predominantly in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region, while eastern Pacific anomalies are insignificant. We assessed dominant frequencies in Indo-Pacific SST and found the eastern equatorial Pacific dominated by higher-frequency variability in the ENSO band, while the tropical Indian Ocean and IPWP exhibit lower-frequency variability beyond 10 years. This is consistent with the different contribution to regional precipitation anomalies for the eastern Pacific versus Indian Ocean and IPWP on interannual and decadal timescales, respectively. In the model, the dominant low-frequency signal seen in the observations in the Indo-Pacific is not well-represented as it instead exhibits overly strong variability on subdecadal timescales. The overly strong ENSO-teleconnection likely contributes to the overestimated role of the short rains in the seasonal cycle in the model compared to observations.

Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

2017-09-01

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

ENSO related sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, T.

2016-12-01

Recently available satellite and Argo data have shown coherent, large-scale sea surface salinity (SSS) variability in the equatorial Pacific. Based on this variability, several SSS indices of El Nino have been introduced by previous studies. Combining results from an ocean general circulation model with available satellite and in-situ observations, this study investigates the SSS variability and its associated SSS indices in the equatorial Pacific. The ocean's role and in particular the vertical entrainment of subtropical waters in this variability are discussed, which suggests that the SSS variability in the equatorial Pacific may play some active role in ENSO evolution.

Four-peak longitudinal distribution of the equatorial plasma bubbles observed in the topside ionosphere: Possible troposphere tide influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidorova, L. N.; Filippov, S. V.

2018-03-01

In this paper we consider an idea of the troposphere tide influence on the character of the longitudinal variations in the distribution of the equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) observed in the topside ionosphere. For this purpose, the obtained EPB longitudinal patterns were compared with the thermosphere and ionosphere characteristics having the prominent "wave-like" longitudinal structures with wave number 4, which are uniquely associated with the influence of the troposphere DE3 tides. The characteristics of the equatorial mass density anomaly (EMA), equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA), zonal wind and pre-reversal E × B drift enhancement (PRE) were used for comparison. The equinox seasons during high solar activity were under consideration. It was obtained that the longitudinal patterns of the EMA and zonal wind show the surprising similarity with the EPB distributions (R ≅ 0.8, R ≅ 0.72). On the other hand, the resemblance with the ionosphere characteristics (EIA, PRE) is rather faint (R ≅ 0.37, R ≅ 0.12). It was shown that the thermosphere zonal winds are the most possible transfer mediator of the troposphere DE3 tide influence. The most successful moment for the transfer of the troposphere DE3 tide energy takes place in the beginning of the EPB production, namely, during the seed perturbation development.

Seasonal ENSO phase locking in the Kiel Climate Model: The importance of the equatorial cold sea surface temperature bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wengel, C.; Latif, M.; Park, W.; Harlaß, J.; Bayr, T.

2018-02-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by a seasonal phase locking, with strongest eastern and central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter and weakest SST anomalies during boreal spring. In this study, key feedbacks controlling seasonal ENSO phase locking in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are identified by employing Bjerknes index stability analysis. A large ensemble of simulations with the KCM is analyzed, where the individual runs differ in either the number of vertical atmospheric levels or coefficients used in selected atmospheric parameterizations. All integrations use the identical ocean model. The ensemble-mean features realistic seasonal ENSO phase locking. ENSO phase locking is very sensitive to changes in the mean-state realized by the modifications described above. An excessive equatorial cold tongue leads to weak phase locking by reducing the Ekman feedback and thermocline feedback in late boreal fall and early boreal winter. Seasonal ENSO phase locking also is sensitive to the shortwave feedback as part of the thermal damping in early boreal spring, which strongly depends on eastern and central equatorial Pacific SST. The results obtained from the KCM are consistent with those from models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

A new dipole index of the salinity anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Li, Junde; Liang, Chujin; Tang, Youmin; Dong, Changming; Chen, Dake; Liu, Xiaohui; Jin, Weifang

2016-01-01

With the increased interest in studying the sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA) of the tropical Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an index describing the dipole variability of the SSSA has been pursued recently. In this study, we first use a regional ocean model with a high spatial resolution to produce a high-quality salinity simulation during the period from 1982 to 2014, from which the SSSA dipole structure is identified for boreal autumn. On this basis, by further analysing the observed data, we define a dipole index of the SSSA between the central equatorial Indian Ocean (CEIO: 70°E-90°E, 5°S-5°N) and the region off the Sumatra-Java coast (SJC: 100°E-110°E, 13°S-3°S). Compared with previous SSSA dipole indices, this index has advantages in detecting the dipole signals and in characterizing their relationship to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) dipole variability. Finally, the mechanism of the SSSA dipole is investigated by dynamical diagnosis. It is found that anomalous zonal advection dominates the SSSA in the CEIO region, whereas the SSSA in the SJC region are mainly influenced by the anomalous surface freshwater flux. This SSSA dipole provides a positive feedback to the formation of the IOD events. PMID:27052319

Factors controlling the interannual variation of 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

2018-04-01

The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), with its intensity being quantified by intraseasonal standard deviations based on OLR data. The spatial and interannual variations of the BSISO intensity are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the period 1981-2014. The first EOF mode (EOF1) shows a spatially coherent enhancement or suppression of BSISO activity over the entire ASM region, and the interannual variability of this mode is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) contrast between the central-eastern North Pacific (CNP) and tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, the second mode (EOF2) exhibits a seesaw pattern between the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and equatorial western Pacific (EWP), with the interannual fluctuation linked with developing ENSO events. During strong years of EOF1 mode, the enhanced low-level westerlies induced by the summer-mean SSTA contrast between the warmer CNP and cooler tropical Indian Ocean tend to form a wetter moisture background over the eastern EIO, which interacts with intraseasonal low-level convergent flows, leading to stronger equatorial eastward propagation. The intensified easterly shear favors stronger northward propagation over the South Asian and Eastern Asian/Western North Pacific sectors, respectively. Opposite situation is for weak years. For interannual variations of EOF2 mode, the seesaw patterns with enhanced BSISO activity over the southeastern EIO while weakened activity over the EWP mostly occur in the La Niña developing summers, but inverse patterns appear in the El Niño developing summers.

Interannual variations in length-of-day (LOD) as a tool to assess climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, E.

2016-12-01

On interannual time scales the atmosphere affects significantly fluctuations in the geodetic quantity of length-of-day (LOD). This effect is directly proportional to perturbations in the relative angular momentum of the atmosphere (AAM) computed from zonal winds. During El Niño events tropospheric westerlies increase due to elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific inducing peak anomalies in relative AAM and correspondingly, in LOD. However, El Niño events affect LOD variations differently strong and the causes of this varying effect are yet not clear. Here, we investigate the LOD-El Niño relationship in the 20th and 21st century (1982-2100) whether the quantity of LOD can be used as a geophysical tool to assess variability and change in a future climate. In our analysis we applied a windowed discrete Fourier transform on all de-seasonalized data to remove climatic signals outside of the El Niño frequency band. LOD (data: IERS) was related in space and time to relative AAM and SSTs (data: ERA-40 reanalysis, IPCC ECHAM05-OM1 20C, A1B). Results from mapped Pearson correlation coefficients and time frequency behavior analysis identified a teleconnection pattern that we term the EN≥65%-index. The EN≥65%-index prescribes a significant change in variation in length-of-day of +65% and more related to (1) SST anomalies of >2° in the Pacific Niño region (160°E-80°W, 5°S-5°N), (2) corresponding stratospheric warming anomalies of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and (3) strong westerly winds in the lower equatorial stratosphere. In our analysis we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean conditions prescribed in the EN≥65%-index apply to the extreme El Niño events of 19982/83 and 1997/98, and to 75% of all El Niño events in the last third of the 21st century. At that period of time the EN≥65%-index describes a projected altered base state of the equatorial Pacific that shows almost continuous El Niño conditions under climate warming.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2012-01-01

A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

Stratospheric role in interdecadal changes of El Niño impacts over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayarzagüena, B.; López-Parages, J.; Iza, M.; Calvo, N.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.

2018-04-01

The European precipitation response to El Niño (EN) has been found to present interdecadal changes, with alternated periods of important or negligible EN impact in late winter. These periods are associated with opposite phases of multi-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability, which modifies the tropospheric background and EN teleconnections. In addition, other studies have shown how SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and in particular, the location of the largest anomalous SST, modulate the stratospheric response to EN. Nevertheless, the role of the stratosphere on the stationarity of EN response has not been investigated in detail so far. Using reanalysis data, we present a comprehensive study of EN teleconnections to Europe including the role of the ocean background and the stratosphere in the stationarity of the signal. The results reveal multidecadal variability in the location of EN-related SST anomalies that determines different teleconnections. In periods with relevant precipitation signal over Europe, the EN SST pattern resembles Eastern Pacific EN and the stratospheric pathway plays a key role in transmitting the signal to Europe in February, together with two tropospheric wavetrains that transmit the signal in February and April. Conversely, the stratospheric pathway is not detected in periods with a weak EN impact on European precipitation, corresponding to EN-related SST anomalies primarily located over the central Pacific. SST mean state and its associated atmospheric background control the location of EN-related SST anomalies in different periods and modulate the establishment of the aforementioned stratospheric pathway of EN teleconnection to Europe too.

The role of South Pacific atmospheric variability in the development of different types of ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Yujia; Furtado, Jason C.

2017-07-01

Recent advances in tropical Pacific climate variability have focused on understanding the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, specifically the types or "flavors" of ENSO (i.e., central versus eastern Pacific events). While precursors to ENSO events exist, distinguishing the particular flavor of the expected ENSO event remains unresolved. This study offers a new look at ENSO predictability using South Pacific atmospheric variability during austral winter as an indicator. The positive phase of the leading mode of South Pacific sea level pressure variability, which we term the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), exhibits a meridional dipole with with a(n) (anti)cyclonic anomaly dominating the subtropics (extratropics/high latitudes). Once energized, the cyclonic anomalies in the subtropical node of the SPO weaken the southeasterly trade winds and promote the charging of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, giving rise to eastern Pacific ENSO events. Indeed, the type of ENSO event can be determined accurately using only the magnitude and phase of the SPO during austral winter as a predictor (17 out of 23 cases). The SPO may also play a role in explaining the asymmetry of warm and cold events. Collectively, our findings present a new perspective on ENSO-South Pacific interactions that can advance overall understanding of the ENSO system and enhance its predictability across multiple timescales.

The role of the Southern Hemisphere semiannual oscillation in the development of a precursor to central and eastern Pacific Southern Oscillation warm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.; van Loon, Harry; Arblaster, Julie M.

2017-07-01

The semiannual oscillation (SAO) is a twice-yearly northward movement (in May-June-July (MJJ) and November-December-January (NDJ)) of the circumpolar trough of sea level pressure (SLP) in the Southern Hemisphere with effects throughout the troposphere. During MJJ the second harmonic of SLP, describing the SAO, has low values of SLP north of 50°S in the subtropical South Pacific, while the first harmonic, which is dominant over the Australian sector, increases to its peak. This once-a-year peak in negative SLP gradients (decreasing to the east) between Australia and the ocean to its east extends to the equatorial Pacific. Southern Oscillation warm events since 1950, with an intensification of this seasonal cycle, have larger-amplitude SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific in MJJ and during the following mature phase in NDJ. Weak amplification of the seasonal cycle in MJJ tends to be followed by larger-amplitude SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during NDJ.

The equatorial airglow and the ionospheric geomagnetic anomaly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.; Reed, E. I.; Troy, B. E., Jr.; Blamont, J. E.

1972-01-01

OGO D observations of OI (6300A) emissions reveal a global pattern in the equatorial airglow undetected from the ground-based observations. The post sunset emission rate of OI is generally asymmetrical with respect to the geomagnetic equator and shows no apparent correlation with the ultraviolet airglow (OI 1304 and 1356A) and F region electron density measured simultaneously from the same spacecraft. Both the ultraviolet airglow and the ion density measured in the altitude region of 450 km follow similar latitudinal variations and exhibit properties of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly. The asymmetry in OI emission can be attributed to the asymmetry in the height of the F 2 maximum inferred from the height of the maximum emission. From correlative studies of the airglow and the ionospheric measurements, the mechanisms for the ultraviolet and the 6300A emission are discussed in terms of the processes involving radiative and dissociative recombinations. A relationship between molecular oxygen density and the integrated OI emission rate is derived and the feasibility of using this relationship for estimating O2 density is discussed.

Revisiting the false alarm in the 2014 El Niño prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.

2016-12-01

In early 2014, most dynamic forecast models predicted a developing strong El Niño in the following winter. However, this forecast turned out to be a representative case of the false alarms since 2000. In this study, a set of CFSv2 ensemble seasonal reforecast is conducted to examine some possible causes of the unrealistic El Niño prediction in 2014. Zooming in on the NINO3.4 index, the ensemble-mean reforecast initialized in April 2014 predicted a very strong El Niño as the 1997-98 one with most ensemble members warmer than the observations. In contrast, the ensemble-mean reforecast initialized in January (July) 2014 predicted a slower growth (a decline) of the NINO3.4 index for 12-month lead (from November to the spring in 2015), with the spreads of the ensemble members enveloping the observations. Since the observed SST anomalies in equatorial eastern Pacific changed its polarity in late March from the coldest SST anomalies in February accompanied by strong easterly wind to warmer SST in mid April, the atmospheric and oceanic instantaneous initial states in early April 2014 may misrepresent these intra-seasonal variations, possibly resulting in warm bias in equatorial Pacific even at 0-month lead. Our experiments show that colder ocean surface initial conditions in tropical eastern Pacific tend to hinder developing warm SST anomalies in equatorial eastern Pacific and weaken the Bjerknes-type air-sea feedback in the summer of 2014, which reduce excessive westerly wind (warm SST anomalies) in equatorial western Pacific (near the Dateline) and decrease the air-sea feedback. As a result, the predicted amplitude of NINO3.4 at the peak phase is comparable to the observed one, suggesting that the initial condition errors are partially responsible for the false alarm in the 2014 El Niño prediction issued in the spring. Nonetheless, the initial condition errors could not account for easterly wind burst observed in mid June associated with enhanced extratropical anti-cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere, which is regarded as another major factor to stall the El Niño occurrence in 2014. What drives this anomalous atmospheric forcing in mid June and how much it contributes to a more realistic prediction of the 2014 El Niño will also be discussed.

F3-LAYER Seasonal Variations Near the Southern Crest of the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly as a Function of Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagundes, P. R.; Klausner, V.; Bittencourt, J. A.; Sahai, Y.; Abalde, J. R.

2011-12-01

The occurrence of an additional F3-layer has been reported at Brazilian, Indian and Asian sectors by several investigators. In this paper, we report F3-layer seasonal variations carried out at São José dos Campos (23.2 S, 45.0 W; dip latitude 17.6 S), near the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA), Brazil, as a function of solar cycle. The period from September 2000 to August 2001 is used as representative of high solar activity (HSA) and the period from January 2006 to December 2006 as representative of low solar activity (LSA). This investigation shows that the frequency of occurrence of the F3-layer during HSA is 11 times more than during LSA.

From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010-11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlo Espinoza, Jhan; Ronchail, Josyane; Loup Guyot, Jean; Junquas, Clementine; Drapeau, Guillaume; Martinez, Jean Michel; Santini, William; Vauchel, Philippe; Lavado, Waldo; Ordoñez, Julio; Espinoza, Raúl

2012-06-01

In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010-11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m3 s-1) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m3 s-1) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Niña-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010-11 austral summer, when an intense La Niña event characterized the equatorial Pacific.

South Asian summer monsoon breaks: Process-based diagnostics in HIRHAM5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanf, Franziska S.; Annamalai, H.; Rinke, Annette; Dethloff, Klaus

2017-05-01

This study assesses the ability of a high-resolution downscaling simulation with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM5 in capturing the monsoon basic state and boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISV) over South Asia with focus on moist and radiative processes during 1979-2012. A process-based vertically integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget is performed to understand the model's fidelity in representing leading processes that govern the monsoon breaks over continental India. In the climatology (June-September) HIRHAM5 simulates a dry bias over central India in association with descent throughout the free troposphere. Sources of dry bias are interpreted as (i) near-equatorial Rossby wave response forced by excess rainfall over the southern Bay of Bengal promotes anomalous descent to its northwest and (ii) excessive rainfall over near-equatorial Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal anchor a "local Hadley-type" circulation with descent anomalies over continental India. Compared with observations HIRHAM5 captures the leading processes that account for breaks, although with generally reduced amplitudes over central India. In the model too, anomalous dry advection and net radiative cooling are responsible for the initiation and maintenance of breaks, respectively. However, weaker contributions of all adiabatic MSE budget terms, and an inconsistent relationship between negative rainfall anomalies and radiative cooling reveals shortcomings in HIRHAM5's moisture-radiation interaction. Our study directly implies that process-based budget diagnostics are necessary, apart from just checking the northward propagation feature to examine RCM's fidelity to simulate BSISV.

Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC.

PubMed

Pausata, Francesco S R; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo; Battisti, David S

2015-11-10

Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2-3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang;

Suppression of ENSO in a coupled model without water vapor feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, A.; Manabe, S.

We examine 800-year time series of internally generated variability in both a coupled ocean-atmosphere model where water vapor anomalies are not allowed to interact with longwave radiation and one where they are. The ENSO-like phenomenon in the experiment without water vapor feedback is drastically suppressed both in amplitude and geographic extent relative to the experiment with water vapor feedback. Surprisingly, the reduced amplitude of ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the model without water vapor feedback cannot be attributed to greater longwave damping of sea surface temperature. (Differences between the two experiments in radiative feedback due to clouds counterbalance almost perfectly the differences in radiative feedback due to water vapor.) Rather, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation affects the ENSO-like phenomenon through its influence on the vertical structure of radiative heating: Because of the changes in water vapor associated with it, a given warm equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is associated with a radiative heating profile that is much more gravitationally unstable when water vapor feedback is present. The warm sea surface temperature anomaly therefore results in more convection in the experiment with water vapor feedback. The increased convection, in turn, is related to a larger westerly wind-stress anomaly, which creates a larger decrease in upwelling of cold water, thereby enhancing the magnitude of the original warm sea surface temperature anomaly. In this manner, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation magnifies the air-sea interactions at the heart of the ENSO phenomenon; without this interaction, the coupling between sea surface temperature and wind stress is effectively reduced, resulting in smaller amplitude ENSO episodes with a more limited geographical extent.

Ocean heat budget analysis on sea surface temperature anomaly in western Indian Ocean during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathrio, Ibnu; Manda, Atsuyoshi; Iizuka, Satoshi; Kodama, Yasu-Masa; Ishida, Sachinobu

2018-05-01

This study presents ocean heat budget analysis on seas surface temperature (SST) anomalies during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon (southwest monsoon). As discussed by previous studies, there was close relationship between variations of Asian summer monsoon and SST anomaly in western Indian Ocean. In this study we utilized ocean heat budget analysis to elucidate the dominant mechanism that is responsible for generating SST anomaly during weak-strong boreal summer monsoon. Our results showed ocean advection plays more important role to initate SST anomaly than the atmospheric prcess (surface heat flux). Scatterplot analysis showed that vertical advection initiated SST anomaly in western Arabian Sea and southwestern Indian Ocean, while zonal advection initiated SST anomaly in western equatorial Indian Ocean.

The response of an ocean general circulation model to surface wind stress produced by an atmospheric general circulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, B.; Schneider, E.K.

1995-10-01

Two surface wind stress datasets for 1979-91, one based on observations and the other from an investigation of the COLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with prescribed SST, are used to drive the GFDL ocean general circulation model. These two runs are referred to as the control and COLA experiments, respectively. Simulated SST and upper-ocean heat contents (HC) in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with observations and between experiments. Both simulation reproduced the observed mean SST and HC fields as well as their annual cycles realistically. Major errors common to both runs are colder than observed SST in themore » eastern equatorial ocean and HC in the western Pacific south of the equator, with errors generally larger in the COLA experiment. New errors arising from the AGCM wind forcing include higher SST near the South American coast throughout the year and weaker HC gradients along the equator in boreal spring. The former is associated with suppressed coastal upwelling by weak along shore AGCM winds, and the latter is caused by weaker equatorial easterlies in boreal spring. The low-frequency ENSO fluctuations are also realistic for both runs. Correlations between the observed and simulated SST anomalies from the COLA simulation are as high as those from the control run in the central equatorial Pacific. A major problem in the COLA simulation is the appearance of unrealistic tropical cold anomalies during the boreal spring of mature El Nino years. These anomalies propagate along the equator from the western Pacific to the eastern coast in about three months, and temporarily eliminate the warm SST and HC anomalies in the eastern Pacific. This erroneous oceanic response in the COLA simulation is caused by a reversal of the westerly wind anomalies on the equator, associated with an unrealistic southward shift of the ITCZ in boreal spring during El Nino events. 66 refs., 16 figs.« less

Evidence of organized intraseasonal convection linked to ocean dynamics in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addezio, Joseph M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu

2018-01-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant driver of intraseasonal variability across the equatorial domain of the global ocean with alternating wet and dry bands that propagate eastward primarily between 5°N and 5°S. Past research has shown that MJOs impact the surface and subsurface variability of the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) (55°E-65°E, 5°S-12°S) located in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO), but investigations of how SWTIO internal dynamics may play an important role in producing MJO events remain limited. This study uses Argo, in conjunction with several remote sensing and reanalysis products, to demonstrate that SWTIO oceanic dynamics, particularly barrier layer formation and near surface heat buildup, may be associated with MJO genesis between August and December of most years between 2005 and 2013. A total of eight SWTIO specific MJO events are observed, all occurring between August and December. Four of the eight events are correlated with positive SWTIO total heat content (THC) and barrier layer thickness (BLT) interannual anomalies. Two others formed over the SWTIO during times when only one of the variables was at or above their seasonal average, while two additional events occurred when both variables experienced negative interannual anomalies. Lacking complete 1:1 correlation between the hypothesized oceanic state and the identified SWTIO MJO events, we conclude that additional work is required to better understand when variability in key oceanic variables plays a primary role in regional MJO genesis or when other factors, such as atmospheric variability, are the dominate drivers.

The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1948-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; Gallego, D.; Pena-Ortiz, C.; Gimeno, L.; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Calvo, N.

2003-04-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of the zonal wind in the stratosphere is analyzed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset (1948-2001). MTM-SVD, a frequency-domain analysis method, is applied to isolate significant spatially-coherent variability with narrowband, oscillatory character. A quasibiennial oscillation is detected as the most intense coherent signal in the whole mid and high stratosphere, being the signal less intense in the lower levels, closer to the troposphere. There is a clear downward propagation of the signal with time over low latitudes, from 10 to 100 hPa, that is not evident over mid and high latitudes. A different behavior of the signal is detected over the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere. In the NH an anomaly in the zonal wind field, in phase with the equatorial signal, is detected to run around the whole hemisphere at 60º, and two regions in subtropical latitudes show wind anomalies with their sing opposed to that of the equator. In the SH no signal is detected in extratropical areas.

Evidence for the Maintenance of Slowly Varying Equatorial Currents by Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greatbatch, Richard J.; Claus, Martin; Brandt, Peter; Matthießen, Jan-Dirk; Tuchen, Franz Philip; Ascani, François; Dengler, Marcus; Toole, John; Roth, Christina; Farrar, J. Thomas

2018-02-01

Recent evidence from mooring data in the equatorial Atlantic reveals that semiannual and longer time scale ocean current variability is close to being resonant with equatorial basin modes. Here we show that intraseasonal variability, with time scales of tens of days, provides the energy to maintain these resonant basin modes against dissipation. The mechanism is analogous to that by which storm systems in the atmosphere act to maintain the atmospheric jet stream. We demonstrate the mechanism using an idealized model setup that exhibits equatorial deep jets. The results are supported by direct analysis of available mooring data from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean covering a depth range of several thousand meters. The analysis of the mooring data suggests that the same mechanism also helps maintain the seasonal variability.

The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.

1998-06-01

Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent with most other global coupled models. Global correlations between NINO3 time series, global surface temperatures, and sea level pressure (SLP) show that the CSM qualitatively reproduces the major spatial patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation (lower SLP in the central and eastern tropical Pacific when NINO3 SSTs are relatively warmer and higher SLP over the far western Pacific and Indian Oceans, with colder water in the northwest and southwest Pacific). Indices of Asian-Australian monsoon strength are negatively correlated with NINO3 SSTs as in the observations. Spectra of time series of Indian monsoon, Australian monsoon, and NINO3 SST indices from the CSM show amplitude peaks in the Southern Oscillation and tropospheric biennial oscillation frequencies (3-6 yr and about 2.3 yr, respectively) as observed. Lag correlations between the NINO3 SST index and upper-ocean heat content along the equator show eastward propagation of heat content anomalies with a phase speed of about 0.3 m s1, compared to observed values of roughly 0.2 m s1. Composites of El Niño (La Niña) events in the CSM show similar seasonal evolution to composites of observed events with warming (cooling) of greater than several tenths of a degree beginning early in northern spring of year 0 and diminishing around northern spring of year +1, but with a secondary resurgence in the CSM events later in northern spring of year +1. The CSM also shows the largest amplitude ENSO SST and low-level wind anomalies in the western tropical Pacific, with enhanced interannual variability of SSTs extending northeastward and southeastward toward the subtropics, compared to largest interannual SST variability in the central and eastern tropical Pacific in the observations.

Interbasin effects of the Indian Ocean on Pacific decadal climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Ishii, Masayoshi

2016-07-01

We demonstrate the significant impact of the Indian Ocean on the Pacific climate on decadal timescales by comparing two sets of data assimilation experiments (pacemaker experiments) conducted over recent decades. For the Indian Ocean of an atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate model, we assimilate ocean temperature and salinity anomalies defined as deviations from climatology or as anomalies with the area-averaged changes for the Indian Ocean subtracted. When decadal sea surface temperature (SST) trends are observed to be strong over the Indian Ocean, the equatorial thermocline uniformly deepens, and the model simulates the eastward tendencies of surface wind aloft. Surface winds strongly converge around the maritime continent, and the associated strengthening of the Walker circulation suppresses an increasing trend in the equatorial Pacific SST through ocean thermocline shoaling, similar to common changes associated with seasonal Indian Ocean warming.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

Variability in precipitation in a watershed in the altiplano, Peru and modes of variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzarino, M.; Brown, C. M.

2012-12-01

This research examines system linkages between climate, water availability, pasture availability, camelids (llamas and alpacas) and indigenous herders in an Andean watershed in southern Peru. In this region, extreme meteorological events such as drought and flood, occur often and have the potential to negatively impact herding livelihoods. Predictability in the system is paramount to reducing risks associated with these events. In the altiplano, a large portion of variability in precipitation has been attributed to the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In light of climate change and observations by herders, this research returns to the question of teleconnections in the altiplano. We use December through March precipitation totals obtained from eight meteorological stations for 43 years (1964-2006) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic to characterize the hydroclimatology in the watershed and determine modes of variability. Following principal components analysis, prevailing periodicities in regional precipitation were determined using wavelet analysis and spatial correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between SST anomalies (SSTA's) and precipitation events in the watershed. Results suggest a non-linear and non-stationary mode of variability. We draw three conclusions from the results: 1) Positive precipitation extremes are dominated by an ENSO signal in the Nino 2 region; 2) Post 1987 there is a weak relationship, if any, between anomalously dry years in the precipitation record and SSTA's in the equatorial Pacific; 3) There is a stronger relationship (inverse) between precipitation in the region and SSTA's in the tropical Atlantic than previously believed.

Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.

2017-05-01

Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

Indian Ocean Dipolelike Variability in the CSIRO Mark 3 Coupled Climate Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenju; Hendon, Harry H.; Meyers, Gary

2005-05-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean is explored with a multicentury integration of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mark 3 climate model, which runs without flux adjustment. Despite the presence of some common deficiencies in this type of coupled model, zonal dipolelike variability is produced. During July through November, the dominant mode of variability of sea surface temperature resembles the observed zonal dipole and has out-of-phase rainfall variations across the Indian Ocean basin, which are as large as those associated with the model El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the positive dipole phase, cold SST anomaly and suppressed rainfall south of the equator on the Sumatra-Java coast drives an anticyclonic circulation anomaly that is consistent with the steady response (Gill model) to a heat sink displaced south of the equator. The northwest-southeast tilting Sumatra-Java coast results in cold sea surface temperature (SST) centered south of the equator, which forces anticylonic winds that are southeasterly along the coast, which thus produces local upwelling, cool SSTs, and promotes more anticylonic winds; on the equator, the easterlies raise the thermocline to the east via upwelling Kelvin waves and deepen the off-equatorial thermocline to the west via off-equatorial downwelling Rossby waves. The model dipole mode exhibits little contemporaneous relationship with the model ENSO; however, this does not imply that it is independent of ENSO. The model dipole often (but not always) develops in the year following El Niño. It is triggered by an unrealistic transmission of the model's ENSO discharge phase through the Indonesian passages. In the model, the ENSO discharge Rossby waves arrive at the Sumatra-Java coast some 6 to 9 months after an El Niño peaks, causing the majority of model dipole events to peak in the year after an ENSO warm event. In the observed ENSO discharge, Rossby waves arrive at the Australian northwest coast. Thus the model Indian Ocean dipolelike variability is triggered by an unrealistic mechanism. The result highlights the importance of properly representing the transmission of Pacific Rossby waves and Indonesian throughflow in the complex topography of the Indonesian region in coupled climate models.

Mechanisms of northeastern Brazil rainfall anomalies due to Southern Tropical Atlantic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J.; Su, H.

2004-05-01

Observational studies have shown that the rainfall anomalies in eastern equatorial South America, including Nordeste Brazil, have a positive correlation with tropical southern Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Such relationships are reproduced in model simulations with the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM), which includes a simple land model. A suite of model ensemble experiments is analysed using observed SST over the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic and the tropical southern Atlantic (30S-0), respectively (with climatological SST in the remainder of the oceans). Warm tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies yield positive precipitation anomalies over the Nordeste and the southern edge of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Mechanisms associated with moisture variations are responsible for the land precipitation changes. Increases in moisture over the Atlantic cause positive anomalies in moisture advection, spreading increased moisture downwind. Where the basic state is far from the convective stability threshold, moisture changes have little effect, but the margins of the climatological convection zone are affected. The increased moisture supply due to advection is enhanced by increases in low-level convergence required by moist static energy balances. The moisture convergence term is several times larger, but experiments altering the moisture advection confirm that the feedback is initiated by wind acting on moisture gradient. This mechanism has several features in common with the recently published "upped-ante" mechanism for El Nino impacts on this region. In that case, the moisture gradient is initiated by warm free tropospheric temperature anomalies increasing the typical value of low-level moisture required to sustain convection in the convection zones. Both mechanisms suggest the usefulness of coordinating ocean and land in situ observations of boundary layer moisture.

Reconstructing Tropical Pacific Sea Level Variability for the Period 1961-2002 Using a Linear Multimode Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greatbatch, Richard J.; Zhu, Xiaoting; Claus, Martin

2018-03-01

Monthly mean sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the period 1961-2002 are reconstructed using a linear, multimode model driven by monthly mean wind stress anomalies from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis products. Overall, the sea level anomalies reconstructed by both wind stress products agree well with the available tide gauge data, although with poor performance at Kanton Island in the western-central equatorial Pacific and reduced amplitude at Christmas Island. The reduced performance is related to model error in locating the pivot point in sea level variability associated with the so-called "tilt" mode. We present evidence that the pivot point was further west during the period 1993-2014 than during the period 1961-2002 and attribute this to a persistent upward trend in the zonal wind stress variance along the equator west of 160° W throughout the period 1961-2014. Experiments driven by the zonal component of the wind stress alone reproduce much of the trend in sea level found in the experiments driven by both components of the wind stress. The experiments show an upward trend in sea level in the eastern tropical Pacific over the period 1961-2002, but with a much stronger upward trend when using the NCEP/NCAR product. We argue that the latter is related to an overly strong eastward trend in zonal wind stress in the eastern-central Pacific that is believed to be a spurious feature of the NCEP/NCAR product.

Investigation of ionospheric precursors related to deep and intermediate earthquakes based on spectral and statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oikonomou, Christina; Haralambous, Haris; Muslim, Buldan

2017-01-01

Ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) variations prior to the deep (≈600 km) earthquake doublet close to magnetic equator in Peru (M = 7.6) and to the intermediate (≈200 km) earthquake in Afghanistan (M = 7.5) during 2015 were investigated using measurements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network with the aim to detect possible ionospheric precursors of these events. For this we applied both statistical and spectral analysis. Ionospheric anomalies related to both earthquakes were observed few hours and few days prior to the earthquakes during daytime localized mainly near the epicenter. These were large-scale positive TEC anomalies and small-scale TEC oscillations with periods of 20 min and duration around 2-4 h appearing at the same local time each day. Several days prior to the earthquake in Peru a significant phenomenon was observed during afternoon time related to the modification of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) structure. During nighttime, however, it was not possible to identify any ionospheric earthquake precursor due to the concurrence of various phenomena, such as Equatorial Plasma Bubbles and pre- and post-midnight TEC peaks prior to Peru earthquake, and solar terminator transition prior to both earthquakes which could induce resembling ionospheric anomalies.

Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang

2018-01-01

This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

Numerical experiments on the impact of spring north pacific SSTA on NPO and unusually cool summers in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Yi; Zhao, Bin; Shen, Baizhu; Li, Shangfeng; Liu, Gang

2014-11-01

A set of numerical experiments designed to analyze the oceanic forcing in spring show that the combined forcing of cold (warm) El Niño (La Niña) phases in the Niño4 region and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the westerly drifts region would result in abnormally enhanced NorthEast Cold Vortex (NECV) activities in early summer. In spring, the central equatorial Pacific El Niño phase and westerly drift SSTA forcing would lead to the retreat of non-adiabatic waves, inducing elliptic low-frequency anomalies of tropical air flows. This would enhance the anomalous cyclone-anticyclone-cyclone-anticyclone low-frequency wave train that propagates from the tropics to the extratropics and further to the mid-high latitudes, constituting a major physical mechanism that contributes to the early summer circulation anomalies in the subtropics and in the North Pacific mid-high latitudes. The central equatorial Pacific La Niña forcing in the spring would, on the one hand, induce teleconnection anomalies of high pressure from the Sea of Okhotsk to the Sea of Japan in early summer, and on the other hand indirectly trigger a positive low-frequency East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) wave train in the lower troposphere.

Assessing the Skill of Chlorophyll Forecasts: Latest Development and Challenges Ahead Using the Case of the Equatorial Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile S.; Gregg, Watson W.

2018-01-01

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Nino event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram chl L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram chl L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Nino events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

Forecasting Ocean Chlorophyll in the Equatorial Pacific.

PubMed

Rousseaux, Cecile S; Gregg, Watson W

2017-01-01

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Niño event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Niño. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant ( p < 0.05) for forecast at 1-month ( R = 0.33), 8-month ( R = 0.42) and 9-month ( R = 0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 μg chl L -1 for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 μg chl L -1 for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 μg chl L -1 ) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 μg chl L -1 ). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Niño events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

Surface Salinity Variability in the North Atlantic During Recent Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haekkinen, Sirpa

2001-01-01

The sea surface salinity (SSS) variability in the North Atlantic is investigated using numerical model simulations for the last 50 years based on atmospheric forcing variability from Comprehensive Atmosphere Ocean Data Set (COADS) and National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis. The largest interannual and longer term variability occurs in two regions: the Labrador Sea and the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) region. In both regions the seasonality of the surface salinity variability is prominent with the maximum standard deviation occurring in the summer/fall period. In the Labrador Sea the summer SSS anomalies far exceed those of wintertime in amplitude. The interannual SSS variability in the subpolar gyre can be attributed to two factors: excess ice melt and heat flux (i.e. deep mixing) variations. On the other hand, heat flux variability can also lead to meridional overturning changes on decadal time scales such that weak overturning is manifested in fresh surface conditions in the subpolar gyre. The overturning changes also influence the NECC region SSS variability. Moreover, the subpolar freshening events are expected to occur during the negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation which is associated with a weak wintertime surface heat loss in the subpolar gyre. No excess sea ice melt or precipitation is necessary for the formation of the fresh anomalies, because with the lack of wide-spread deep mixing, the fresh water that would be expected based on climatology, would accumulate at the surface. Thus, the fresh water 'conveyor' in the Atlantic operates via the overturning circulation such that deep mixing inserts fresh water while removing heat from the water column.

Vertical Motion Changes Related to North-East Brazil Rainfall Variability: a GCM Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roucou, Pascal; Oribe Rocha de Aragão, José; Harzallah, Ali; Fontaine, Bernard; Janicot, Serge

1996-08-01

The atmospheric structure over north-east Brazil during anomalous rainfall years is studied in the 11 levels of the outputs of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMD AGCM). Seven 19-year simulations were performed using observed sea-surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the period 1970- 1988. The ensemble mean is calculated for each month of the period, leading to an ensemble-averaged simulation. The simulated March-April rainfall is in good agreement with observations. Correlations of simulated rainfall and three SST indices relative to the equatorial Pacific and northern and southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean exhibit stronger relationships in the simulation than in the observations. This is particularly true with the SST gradient in the Atlantic (Atlantic dipole). Analyses on 200 ;hPa velocity potential, vertical velocity, and vertical integral of the zonal component of mass flux are performed for years of abnormal rainfall and positive/negative SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in March-April during the rainy season over the Nordeste region. The results at 200 hPa show a convergence anomaly over Nordeste and a divergence anomaly over the Pacific concomitant with dry seasons associated with warm SST anomalies in the Pacific and warm (cold) waters in the North (South) Atlantic. During drought years convection inside the ITCZ indicated by the vertical velocity exhibits a displacement of the convection zone corresponding to a northward migration of the ITCZ. The east-west circulation depicted by the zonal divergent mass flux shows subsiding motion over Nordeste and ascending motion over the Pacific in drought years, accompanied by warm waters in the eastern Pacific and warm/cold waters in northern/southern Atlantic. Rainfall variability of the Nordeste rainfall is linked mainly to vertical motion and SST variability through the migration of the ITCZ and the east-west circulation.

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

PubMed

Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Linthicum, Kenneth J

2006-12-28

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.

Does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence aerosol variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Baijun; Waliser, Duane E.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Li, Qinbin; Yung, Yuk L.; Tyranowski, Tomasz; Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Mishchenko, Michael I.; Torres, Omar; Smirnov, Alexander

2008-06-01

We investigate the modulation of aerosols by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) using multiple, global satellite aerosol products: aerosol index (AI) from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on Nimbus-7, and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on NOAA satellites. A composite MJO analysis indicates that large variations in the TOMS AI and MODIS/AVHRR AOT are found over the equatorial Indian and western Pacific Oceans where MJO convection is active, as well as the tropical Africa and Atlantic Ocean where MJO convection is weak but the background aerosol level is high. A strong inverse linear relationship between the TOMS AI and rainfall anomalies, but a weaker, less coherent positive correlation between the MODIS/AVHRR AOT and rainfall anomalies, were found. The MODIS/AVHRR pattern is consistent with ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network data. These results indicate that the MJO and its associated cloudiness, rainfall, and circulation variability systematically influence the variability in remote sensing aerosol retrieval results. Several physical and retrieval algorithmic factors that may contribute to the observed aerosol-rainfall relationships are discussed. Preliminary analysis indicates that cloud contamination in the aerosol retrievals is likely to be a major contributor to the observed relationships, although we cannot exclude possible contributions from other physical mechanisms. Future research is needed to fully understand these complex aerosol-rainfall relationships.

Weakening of the relationship between the Indian Ocean Dipole and the ENSO in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jun-Young; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2016-04-01

This study reports, on the 20th century the relationship between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was weaker then late 1990s. We shows that 15-yr moving correlation between the Nino3.4 index during the December to February (DJF) and IOD index during the September to November (SON) season. At this results we divided previous decades (1979 to 1998) and late decades (1999 to 2014). The correlation coefficient was 0.64 in the previous decades and 0.21 in the late decades. Late decades was suddenly weaker then previous decades. Because, there is a big difference between previous decades and late decades in the ENSO regressed precipitation anomaly spatial distribution during the El Nino developing the MAM season. There was existed positive precipitation anomalies over the off-equatorial western Pacific. It was induced the cross-equatorial southerly flow over the eastern Indian Ocean and maritime continent. It means cross-equatorial southerly flow was key point to understanding ENSO-IOD coupling system. In addition, using the climate models participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) supports the observational results.

Organization of extratropical transients during El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoerling, M.P.; Ting, Mingfang

Four observed El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are studied to determine the mechanisms responsible for the anomalous extratropical atmospheric circulation during northern winter. A parallel analysis of a GCM's response to El Nino is performed in order to assess if similar mechanisms are operative in the model atmosphere. The observed stationary wave anomalies over the Pacific/North American (PNA) region are found to be similar during the four winters despite appreciable differences in sea surface temperatures. The anomalous transient vorticity fluxes are remarkably robust over the North Pacific during each even, with an eastward extension of the climatological storm track leadingmore » to strong cyclonic forcing near 40[degrees]N, 150[degrees]W. This forcing is in phase with the seasonal mean Aleutian trough anomaly suggesting the important of eddy-mean flow interaction. By comparison, the intersample variability of the GCM response over the PNA region is found to exceed the observed inter-El Nino variability. This stems primarily from a large variability in the model's anomalous transients over the North Pacific. Further analysis reveals that extratropical vorticity transients are the primary mechanism maintaining the stationary wave anomalies over the PNA region during all four observed ENSO winters. In the case of the GCM, the organization of transient eddies is ill defined over the North Pacific, a behavior indicative of model error. A physical model is proposed to explain the robustness of the tropical controlling influence of the extratropical transients in nature. A simple equatorial Pacific heat source directly forces a tropical anticyclone whose phase relative to the climatological tropical anticyclone leads to an eastward extension of the subtropical jet stream. This mechanism appears to be equally effective for a heat source located either in the central or eastern Pacific basin. 36 refs., 14 figs.« less

Role of the meridional dipole of SSTA and associated cross-equatorial flow in the tropical eastern Pacific in terminating the 2014 El Niño development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yi-Kai; Chen, Lin; Hong, Chi-Cherng; Li, Tim; Chen, Cheng-Ta; Wang, Lu

2018-03-01

In the boreal spring of 2014, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions were favorable for an El Niño's development. It was predicted that in 2014, a super El Niño or at least a regular El Niño with normal magnitude, would initiate. However, the growth rate of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the equatorial eastern Pacific suddenly declined in the boreal summer. The physical processes responsible for the termination of the 2014 El Niño were addressed in this study. We hypothesized that a meridional dipole of SSTA, characterized by a pronounced warm SSTA over the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and cold SSTA over the eastern South Pacific (ESP), played a crucial role in blocking the 2014 El Niño's development. The observational analysis revealed that the meridional dipole of SSTA and the relevant anomalous cross-equatorial flow in the tropical eastern Pacific, induced anomalous westward ({u^' }<0) and upwelling ({w^' }>0) currents in the equatorial eastern Pacific, leading to negative anomalous zonal advection term (- {u^' }partial \\overline T /partial x<0) and anomalous upwelling advection term (- {w^' }partial \\overline T /partial z<0). Additionally, the anomalous cross-equatorial flow also induced northward meridional current anomalies that transported subtropical cold water to the equator. All the changes of the oceanic dynamic terms collectively caused negative SSTA tendency in the boreal summer, and thus killed off the budding 2014 El Niño. The idealized numerical experiments further confirmed that the 2014 El Niño's development could be suppressed by the meridional dipole of SSTA, and both the ENP pole and ESP pole make a contribution.

Evaporation/SST Sensitivity Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO Events as Estimated from the da Silva, Young, Levitus Surface Marine Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Fitzjarrald, D. E.; Sohn, B.-J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The da Silva, Young and Levitus Surface Marine Atlas, based on observations from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Release 1, has been used to investigate the relationship between evaporation and sea-surface temperature (SST) over the global oceans. For the period 1950 to 1987 SST, surface latent heat flux, and other related variables have been filtered to minimize data uncertainties and to focus upon interannual variations associated with warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) ENSO events. Compositing procedures have enabled identification of systematic variations in latent heat fluxes accompanying these events and the relationship to spatial anomalies in ocean surface wind speed and humidity. The evaporation response associated with ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability is systematic in nature and composed of offsetting contributions from the surface wind and humidity variations. During warm events exceeding 1.0 S.D. delta SST, increases in the surface humidity deficit, delta(qs-qa), between the surface and 2m height dominate regions of positive SST anomalies and lead to increases in evaporation of almost 2 Wm (exp -2) at deltaSST = 0.23 K. Despite the increases in specific humidity, relative humidity decreases slightly in regions of elevated SSTs. For the most part, variations in wind speed are consistent with previous investigations. Weakening of the equatorial easterlies (and generation of westerlies) between 160 degrees E and 140 degrees W dominates during the early phases of warm events. Elevated wind speeds in adjacent subtropical regions and in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsequently develop too. The net contribution of these winds, which reflect adjustments in Hadley and Walker circulation components is toward reduced evaporation. Results for cold periods are approximately similar, but opposite in sign to warm events, though evidence of different temporal evolution is noted.

Earthquake aftereffects in the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly region under geomagnetic quiet and storm conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Stanislawska, I.

2017-07-01

In addition to multi-scale spatio-temporal trends that shape the ionosphere variability, the ionosphere responds to the disturbances that are solar, geomagnetic and seismic in origin. In this study, post-seismic ionospheric disturbances are investigated retrospectively from 1999 to 2015 using two different sets of ionospheric maps of the F2 layer critical frequency, foF2. One set of foF2 maps is obtained by assimilating Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) of Total Electron Content (TEC) into IRI-Plas model (IRI-Plas-foF2). Another set of hourly foF2 maps is obtained using PRIME-251 mapping technique (PRIME-foF2) by the assimilation of ionosonde foF2 data into IRI-CCIR model. The geomagnetic storms affecting the ionosphere are determined with relevant thresholds of geomagnetic AE, aa, ap, ap(τ) and Dst indices. It is observed that more than 60% of the earthquakes occur in the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region within the belt of geomagnetic latitudes ±40° N and geographic longitudes 90-190° E. The co-seismic foF2 disturbances, DfoF2, are identified for the cells of the map if an instant foF2 value is outside of pre-defined bounds of foF2 median (μ) and standard deviation (σ), μ ± 1σ, in the map fragment of 1000 km radius around the earthquake hypocenter. The results of positive ionospheric disturbances, DfoF2p, and negative disturbances, DfoF2n, in the EIA region during the 12 h after earthquake differ with respect to geomagnetic quiet and storm conditions, nighttime and daytime, magnitude and depth of the earthquake. The maximum spatial variability (for more than 50% of map cells in the vicinity of hypocenter) is observed with positive disturbances (DfoF2p) for the earthquakes that occurred during daytime at a depth of 70-300 km.

Interdecadal changes in El Nino onset in the last four decades

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, B.

The characteristics of the onset of the Pacific basin-wide warming have experienced notable changes since the late 1970s. The changes are caused by a concurrent change in the background state on which El Nino evolves. For the most significant warm episodes before the late 1970s (1957, 1965, and 1972), the atmospheric anomalies in the onset phase (November to December of the year preceding the El Nino) were characterized by a giant anomalous cyclone over east Australia whose eastward movement brought anomalous westerlies into the western equatorial Pacific, causing development of the basin-wide warming. Meanwhile, the trades in the southeastern Pacificmore » relaxed back to their weakest stage, resulting in a South American coastal warming, which led the central Pacific warming about three seasons. Conversely, in the warm episodes after the late 1970s (1982, 1986-87, and 1991), the onset phase was characterized by an anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea whose intensification established anomalous westerlies in the western equatorial Pacific. Concurrently, the trades were enhanced in the southeastern Pacific, so that the coastal warming off Ecuado occurred after the central Pacific warming. It is found that the atmospheric anomalies occurring in the onset phase are controlled by background SSTs that exhibit a significant secular variation. In the late 1970s, the tropical Pacific between 20{degrees}S and 20{degrees}N experienced an abrupt interdecadal warming, concurrent with a cooling in the extratropical North Pacific and South Pacific and a deepening of the Aleutian Low. The interdecadal change of the background state affected El Nino onset by altering the formation of the onset cyclone and equatorial westerly anomalies and through changing the trades in the southeast Pacific, which determine whether a South American coastal warming leads or follows the warming at the central equatorial Pacific. 49 refs., 13 figs.« less

Changes in hydro-meteorological conditions over tropical West Africa (1980-2015) and links to global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndehedehe, Christopher E.; Awange, Joseph L.; Agutu, Nathan O.; Okwuashi, Onuwa

2018-03-01

The role of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating rainfall in the African region has been widely studied and is now less debated. However, their impacts and links to terrestrial water storage (TWS) in general, have not been studied. This study presents the pioneer results of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of TWS derived from both global reanalysis data (1980-2015) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) (2002-2014) with SST fields. The main issues discussed include, (i) oceanic hot spots that impact on TWS over tropical West Africa (TWA) based on CCA, (ii) long term changes in model and global reanalysis data (soil moisture, TWS, and groundwater) and the influence of climate variability on these hydrological indicators, and (iii) the hydrological characteristics of the Equatorial region of Africa (i.e., the Congo basin) based on GRACE-derived TWS, river discharge, and precipitation. Results of the CCA diagnostics show that El-Niño Southern Oscillation related equatorial Pacific SST fluctuations is a major index of climate variability identified in the main portion of the CCA procedure that indicates a significant association with long term TWS reanalysis data over TWA (r = 0.50, ρ < 0.05). Based on Mann-Kendall's statistics, the study found fairly large long term declines (ρ < 0.05) in TWS and soil moisture (1982 - 2015), mostly over the Congo basin, which coincided with warming of the land surface and the surrounding oceans. Meanwhile, some parts of the Sahel show significant wetting (rainfall, soil moisture, groundwater, and TWS) trends during the same period (1982-2015) and aligns with the ongoing narratives of rainfall recovery in the region. Results of singular spectral analysis and regression confirm that multi-annual changes in the Congo River discharge explained a considerable proportion of variability in GRACE-hydrological signal over the Congo basin (r = 0.86 and R2 = 0.70, ρ < 0.05). Finally, leading orthogonal modes of MERRA and GRACE-TWS over TWA show significant association with global SST anomalies.

Modulation of Bjerknes feedback on the decadal variations in ENSO predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Fei; Fang, Xiang-Hui; Zhu, Jiang; Yu, Jin-Yi; Li, Xi-Chen

2016-12-01

Clear decadal variations exist in the predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the most recent decade having the lowest ENSO predictability in the past six decades. The Bjerknes Feedback (BF) intensity, which dominates the development of ENSO, has been proposed to determine ENSO predictability. Here we demonstrate that decadal variations in BF intensity are largely a result of the sensitivity of the zonal winds to the zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient in the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, the results show that during low-ENSO predictability decades, zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are more linked to SLP variations in the off-equatorial Pacific, which can then transfer this information into surface temperature and precipitation fields through the BF, suggesting a weakening in the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific. This result indicates that more attention should be paid to off-equatorial processes in the prediction of ENSO.

Global scale equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) response to magnetospheric disturbances based on the May-June 1987 SUNDIAL-coordinated observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdu, M. A.; Walker, G. O.; Reddy, B. M.; de Paula, E. R.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Fejer, B. G.

1993-07-01

Equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) responses to magnetospheric disturbances have been investigated using ionosonde and geomagnetic data sets obtained for different longitude sectors during the 9-day (28 May-7 June) globally-coordinated SUNDIAL 87 campaign. Attention is focused on the EIA response features of the two magnetically most-disturbed days of the campaign window, 29 May and 6 June. Anomalous EIA inhibition and development were simultaneously observed at widely separated (American and Asian) longitude sectors, accompanied respectively by events of morning electrojet reversal and evening partial ring current development. A numerical model of the low-latitude ionosphere has been used to quantify the role that a disturbance electric field could play in the observed EIA response features. The implications of the results on the global low-latitude disturbance electric field pattern is discussed.

Characteristics of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in relation to transionospheric satellite links around the northern crest in the Indian longitude sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, A.; Paul, K. S.; Halder, S.; Basu, K.; Paul, A.

2014-02-01

The poleward gradient of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) introduces more intense propagation effects on transionospheric satellite links in comparison to the equatorward gradient. Characterization of the poleward gradient was performed during March-April, August-October 2011 and March-April 2012 using GPS total electron content (TEC) recorded from a chain of stations located more or less along the same meridian (88.5° E) at Calcutta, Baharampore, Farakka and Siliguri. The poleward gradients calculated on magnetically quiet days at elevation in excess of 50° at 14:00, 15:00 and 16:00 LT were found to have a strong correlation with GPS S4 observed from Calcutta during post-sunset-to-midnight hours. A threshold value of poleward TEC gradient is calculated above which there is a probability of scintillation at Calcutta with S4 ≥ 0.4.

What Controls ENSO-Amplitude Diversity in Climate Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wengel, C.; Dommenget, D.; Latif, M.; Bayr, T.; Vijayeta, A.

2018-02-01

Climate models depict large diversity in the strength of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (ENSO amplitude). Here we investigate ENSO-amplitude diversity in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by means of the linear recharge oscillator model, which reduces ENSO dynamics to a two-dimensional problem in terms of eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (T) and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content anomalies (h). We find that a large contribution to ENSO-amplitude diversity originates from stochastic forcing. Further, significant interactions exist between the stochastic forcing and the growth rates of T and h with competing effects on ENSO amplitude. The joint consideration of stochastic forcing and growth rates explains more than 80% of the ENSO-amplitude variance within CMIP5. Our results can readily explain the lack of correlation between the Bjerknes Stability index, a measure of the growth rate of T, and ENSO amplitude in a multimodel ensemble.

The formation and analysis of a 5 deg equal area block terrestrial gravity field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rapp, R. H.

1972-01-01

A set of 23,355 1 degree x 1 degree mean free air anomalies were used to predict a set of 5 degree equal area anomalies and their standard errors. Using the 1 degree data incorporating geophysically predicted values of ACIC, 1283 5 degree blocks were computed. Excluding the geophysically predicted anomalies 1249 blocks were computed. The 1 degree data were also used to compute covariance functions and the equatorial gravity and flattening implied by this data. The predicted anomalies were supplemented by model anomalies to form a complete 1654 global anomaly field. These data were used in a weighted least squares to determine potential coefficients to degree 15, and in a summation type formulation to determine potential coefficients to degree 25. These potential coefficients sets are compared to recent satellite determinations.

Longitudinal Differences of Ionospheric Vertical Density Distribution and Equatorial Electrodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yizengaw, E.; Zesta, E.; Moldwin, M. B.; Damtie, B.; Mebrahtu, A.; Valledares, C.E.; Pfaff, R. F.

2012-01-01

Accurate estimation of global vertical distribution of ionospheric and plasmaspheric density as a function of local time, season, and magnetic activity is required to improve the operation of space-based navigation and communication systems. The vertical density distribution, especially at low and equatorial latitudes, is governed by the equatorial electrodynamics that produces a vertical driving force. The vertical structure of the equatorial density distribution can be observed by using tomographic reconstruction techniques on ground-based global positioning system (GPS) total electron content (TEC). Similarly, the vertical drift, which is one of the driving mechanisms that govern equatorial electrodynamics and strongly affect the structure and dynamics of the ionosphere in the low/midlatitude region, can be estimated using ground magnetometer observations. We present tomographically reconstructed density distribution and the corresponding vertical drifts at two different longitudes: the East African and west South American sectors. Chains of GPS stations in the east African and west South American longitudinal sectors, covering the equatorial anomaly region of meridian approx. 37 deg and 290 deg E, respectively, are used to reconstruct the vertical density distribution. Similarly, magnetometer sites of African Meridian B-field Education and Research (AMBER) and INTERMAGNET for the east African sector and South American Meridional B-field Array (SAMBA) and Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) are used to estimate the vertical drift velocity at two distinct longitudes. The comparison between the reconstructed and Jicamarca Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) measured density profiles shows excellent agreement, demonstrating the usefulness of tomographic reconstruction technique in providing the vertical density distribution at different longitudes. Similarly, the comparison between magnetometer estimated vertical drift and other independent drift observation, such as from VEFI onboard Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite and JULIA radar, is equally promising. The observations at different longitudes suggest that the vertical drift velocities and the vertical density distribution have significant longitudinal differences; especially the equatorial anomaly peaks expand to higher latitudes more in American sector than the African sector, indicating that the vertical drift in the American sector is stronger than the African sector.

SAMI2 model results for the quiet time low latitude ionosphere over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, S. S.; Sharma, Shweta; Pandey, R.

2018-04-01

Efficacy of SAMI2 model for the Indian low latitude region around 75°E longitudes has been tested for different levels of solar flux. With a slight modification of the plasma drift velocity the SAMI2 model has been successful in reproducing quiet time ionospheric low latitude features like Equatorial Ionization Anomaly. We have also showed the formation of electron hole in the topside equatorial ionosphere in the Indian sector. Simulation results show the formation of electron hole in the altitude range 800-2500 km over the magnetic equator. Indian zone results reveal marked differences with regard to the time of occurrence, seasonal appearances and strength of the electron hole vis-a-vis those reported for the American equatorial region.

Recent developments in the understanding of equatorial ionization anomaly: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balan, N.; Souza, J.; Bailey, G. J.

2018-06-01

A brief review of the recent developments in the understanding of the equatorial plasma fountain (EPF) and equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) under quiet and active conditions is presented. It is clarified that (1) the EPF is not upward ExB plasma drift at the equator followed by downward plasma diffusion, but it is field perpendicular ExB plasma drift and field-aligned plasma diffusion acting together all along the field lines at all altitudes and plasma flowing in the direction of the resultant. (2) The EIA is formed not from the accumulation of plasma at the crests but mainly from the removal of plasma from around the equator by the upward ExB drift with small accumulations when the crests are within approximately ±20° magnetic latitude. The accumulations reduce with increasing latitude and become zero by approximately ±25°. (3) An asymmetric neutral wind makes EPF and EIA asymmetric with stronger fountain and stronger crest usually occurring in opposite hemispheres especially at equinoxes when winter anomaly is absent. (4) During the early stages of daytime main phase of major geomagnetic storms, the plasma fountain becomes a super fountain and the EIA becomes strong not due to the eastward prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) alone but due to the combined effect of eastward PPEF and storm-time equatorward winds (SEW). (5) During the later stages of the storms when EIA gets inhibited a peak sometimes occurs around the equator not due to westward electric fields but mainly due to the convergence of plasma from both hemispheres due to SEW.

Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

A study on ionospheric scintillation near the EIA crest in relation to equatorial electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, S.; Chakraborty, S. K.; Veenadhari, B.; Banola, S.

2014-02-01

Equatorial electrojet (EEJ) data, which are considered as a proxy index of equatorial electric field, are analyzed in conjunction with equatorial ionosonde, total electron content (TEC) and scintillation data near the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest for the equinoctial months of high solar activity years (2011-2012) to identify any precursor index of postsunset evolution of equatorial electron density irregularities and subsequent occurrence of scintillation near the northern EIA crest. Only geomagnetically quiet and normal electrojet days are considered. The diurnal profiles of EEJ on the scintillation days exhibit a secondary enhancement in the afternoon to presunset hours following diurnal peaks. A series of electrodynamical processes conducive for generation of irregularities emerge following secondary enhancement of EEJ. Latitudinal profile of TEC exhibits resurgence in EIA structure around the postsunset period. Diurnal TEC profile near the EIA crest resembles postsunset secondary enhancement on the days with afternoon enhancement in EEJ. Occurrence of equatorial spread F and postsunset scintillation near the EIA crest seems to follow the secondary enhancement events in EEJ. Both the magnitude and duration of enhanced EEJ are found to be important for postsunset intensification of EIA structure and subsequent occurrence of equatorial irregularities. A critical value combining the two may be considered an important precursor for postsunset occurrence of scintillation near the EIA crest. The results are validated using archived data for the years 1989-1990 and explained in terms of modulation effects of enhanced equatorial fountain.

Abnormal evening vertical plasma drift and effects on ESF and EIA over Brazil-South Atlantic sector during the 30 October 2003 superstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdu, M. A.; de Paula, E. R.; Batista, I. S.; Reinisch, B. W.; Matsuoka, M. T.; Camargo, P. O.; Veliz, O.; Denardini, C. M.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Kherani, E. A.; de Siqueira, P. M.

2008-07-01

Equatorial F region vertical plasma drifts, spread F and anomaly responses, in the south American longitude sector during the superstorm of 30 October 2003, are analyzed using data from an array of instruments consisting of Digisondes, a VHF radar, GPS TEC and scintillation receivers in Brazil, and a Digisonde and a magnetometer in Jicamarca, Peru. Prompt penetrating eastward electric field of abnormally large intensity drove the F layer plasma up at a velocity ˜1200 ms-1 during post dusk hours in the eastern sector over Brazil. The equatorial anomaly was intensified and expanded poleward while the development of spread F/plasma bubble irregularities and GPS signal scintillations were weaker than their quiet time intensity. Significantly weaker F region response over Jicamarca presented a striking difference in the intensity of prompt penetration electric field between Peru and eastern longitudes of Brazil. The enhanced post dusk sector vertical drift over Brazil is attributed to electro-dynamics effects arising energetic particle precipitation in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA). These extraordinary results and their longitudinal differences are presented and discussed in this paper.

Role of Equatorial Anomaly in Earthquake time precursive features: A few strong events over West Pacific zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devi, Minakshi; Patgiri, S.; Barbara, A. K.; Oyama, Koh-Ichiro; Ryu, K.; Depuev, V.; Depueva, A.

2018-03-01

The earthquake (EQ) time coupling processes between equator-low-mid latitude ionosphere are complex due to inherent dynamical status of each latitudinal zone and qualified geomagnetic roles working in the system. In an attempt to identify such process, the paper presents temporal and latitudinal variations of ionization density (foF2) covering 45°N to 35°S, during a number of earthquake events (M > 5.5). The approaches adopted for extraction of features by the earthquake induced preparatory processes are discussed in the paper through identification of parameters like the 'EQ time modification in density gradient' defined by δ = (foF2 max - foF2 min)/τmm, where τmm - time span (in days) between EQ modified density maximum and minimum, and the Earthquake time Equatorial Anomaly, i.e. EEA, one of the most significant phenomenon which develops even during night time irrespective of epicenter position. Based on the observations, the paper presents the seismic time coupling dynamics through anomaly like manifestations between equator, low and mid latitude ionosphere bringing in the global Total Electron Content (TEC) features as supporting indices.

Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia

Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmospheremore » by +0.2 W m -2 (-0.4 W m -2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day -1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day -1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.« less

Multimodel comparison of the ionosphere variability during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.; Fang, T.-W.; Jin, H.; Sassi, F.; Schmidt, H.; Chau, J. L.; Siddiqui, T. A.; Goncharenko, L.

2016-07-01

A comparison of different model simulations of the ionosphere variability during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) is presented. The focus is on the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere simulated by the Ground-to-topside model of the Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Model plus Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere (WAM+GIP), and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version plus Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (WACCMX+TIMEGCM). The simulations are compared with observations of the equatorial vertical plasma drift in the American and Indian longitude sectors, zonal mean F region peak density (NmF2) from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites, and ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) at 75°W. The model simulations all reproduce the observed morning enhancement and afternoon decrease in the vertical plasma drift, as well as the progression of the anomalies toward later local times over the course of several days. However, notable discrepancies among the simulations are seen in terms of the magnitude of the drift perturbations, and rate of the local time shift. Comparison of the electron densities further reveals that although many of the broad features of the ionosphere variability are captured by the simulations, there are significant differences among the different model simulations, as well as between the simulations and observations. Additional simulations are performed where the neutral atmospheres from four different whole atmosphere models (GAIA, HAMMONIA (Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere), WAM, and WACCMX) provide the lower atmospheric forcing in the TIME-GCM. These simulations demonstrate that different neutral atmospheres, in particular, differences in the solar migrating semidiurnal tide, are partly responsible for the differences in the simulated ionosphere variability in GAIA, WAM+GIP, and WACCMX+TIMEGCM.

Intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon and African easterly waves during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alaka, Ghassan J., Jr.

Substantial subseasonal variability in African easterly wave (AEW) activity and cyclogenesis frequency occurs in the main hurricane development region of the Atlantic during boreal summer. A complete understanding of intraseasonal variability in the Atlantic and west Africa during boreal summer requires analysis of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulates the west African monsoon and consequently AEWs. Because the MJO is predictable a few weeks in advance, understanding how and why the MJO impacts the west African monsoon may have a profound influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone prediction. This study documents the MJO influence on the west African monsoon system during boreal summer using a variety of reanalysis and satellite datasets. This study aims to identify and explain the MJO teleconnection to the west African monsoon, and the processes that induce precipitation and AEW variability in this region. Intraseasonal west African and Atlantic convective anomalies on 30-90 day timescales are likely induced by equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves generated in the Indian Ocean and west Pacific by the MJO. Previous studies have hypothesized that an area including the Darfur mountains and the Ethiopian highlands is an initiation region for AEWs. It is shown here that the initial MJO influence on precipitation and AEW activity in the African monsoon appears to occur in these regions, where eddy kinetic energy (EKE) anomalies first appear in advance of MJO-induced periods of enhanced and suppressed AEW activity. In the initiation region, upper tropospheric temperature anomalies are reduced, the atmosphere moistens by horizontal advection, and an eastward extension of the African easterly jet occurs in advance of the MJO wet phase of the African monsoon, when AEW activity is also enhanced. These factors all support strong precursor disturbances in the initiation region that seed the African easterly jet and contribute to downstream development of AEWs. Opposite behavior occurs in advance of the MJO dry phase. Moisture and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budgets are examined to provide further insight as to how the MJO modulates and initiates precipitation and AEW variability in this region. In particular, meridional moisture advection anomalies foster moistening in the initiation region by anomalous flow acting across the mean moisture gradient. Additionally, positive (negative) upstream EKE tendency anomalies in advance of the MJO convective maximum (minimum) over tropical north Africa suggest wave growth (decay) near the entrance of the AEJ, while enhanced (suppressed) conversion of eddy available potential energy (EAPE) to EKE and barotropic conversion maintains downstream AEW growth (decay).

On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiter, E.R.

1979-09-01

The energies involved in the general circulation of the atmosphere, especially the zonal available potential energy, show considerable interannual variability, suggesting the presence of various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean-atmosphere system. Sea-surface temperature (SST) variations appear to have some effect on the hydrological cycle. The possible existence of feedback mechanisms between ocean and atmosphere seem to be evident in some of the data from the North Pacific and North Atlantic. One of these proposed mechanisms involves the variation in the convergence between the North and South Pacific trade-wind systems and is strongly reflected in rainfall variability within the drymore » region of the equatorial Pacific. Similar variations appear in low-latitude SST anomalies. The convergence between the two trade-wind systems in the Atlantic region also undergoes marked interannual variations. This quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in trade-wind convergence over the Atlantic appears to be tied to the global QBO of equatorial stratospheric winds and to regional rainfall regimes in the dry region of northeastern Brazil. A variability pattern of SST's with a QBO has been detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's are pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. It is also suggested that interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years.« less

Equatorial oceanography. [review of research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Sarachik, E. S.

1983-01-01

United States progress in equatorial oceanography is reviewed, focusing on the low frequency response of upper equatorial oceans to forcing by the wind. Variations of thermocline depth, midocean currents, and boundary currents are discussed. The factors which determine sea surface temperature (SST) variability in equatorial oceans are reviewed, and the status of understanding of the most spectacular manifestation of SST variability, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is discussed. The problem of observing surface winds, regarded as a fundamental factor limiting understanding of the equatorial oceans, is addressed. Finally, an attempt is made to identify those current trends which are expected to bear fruit in the near and distant future.

A Reversal of Decadal Trends in the Equatorial and North Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, P. R.; Merrifield, M. A.; McCreary, J. P., Jr.; Firing, E.; Piecuch, C. G.

2016-02-01

Sea level and upper ocean temperature trends in the Equatorial and North Indian Ocean (ENIO) reversed sign shortly after the turn of the century. The trend reversal is spatially coherent and characterized by subsurface cooling during 1993-2002 followed by subsurface warming during 2003-2012. Here we explore the dynamics and forcing of the decadal trend reversal, with a particular emphasis on the role of the Indian Ocean cross-equatorial cell (CEC) and anomalies transmitted from the Pacific basin to the ENIO via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). An examination of reanalysis wind-stress fields suggest that forcing of the CEC is enhanced during the cooling phase of the decadal fluctuation, which may account for the cooling trend below 100m in the ENIO during the first decade. In contrast, the subsurface warming during the second decade occurs at thermocline levels, which suggests a deepening of the thermocline during this period. Enhanced Pacific tradewinds since the early 1990s result in a deepening thermocline in the western tropical Pacific (WTP), which may be transmitted to the Indian Ocean basin via the ITF. We present results from simple model experiments that assess the potential for thermocline anomalies originating in the WTP to account for the deepening thermocline in the ENIO during the warming phase of the decadal fluctuation.

Equatorial Pacific forcing of western Amazonian precipitation during Heinrich Stadial 1.

PubMed

Zhang, Yancheng; Zhang, Xu; Chiessi, Cristiano M; Mulitza, Stefan; Zhang, Xiao; Lohmann, Gerrit; Prange, Matthias; Behling, Hermann; Zabel, Matthias; Govin, Aline; Sawakuchi, André O; Cruz, Francisco W; Wefer, Gerold

2016-10-25

Abundant hydroclimatic evidence from western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes documents wet conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka), a cold period in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. This precipitation anomaly was attributed to a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon due to a change in the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. However, the physical viability of this mechanism has never been rigorously tested. We address this issue by combining a thorough compilation of tropical South American paleorecords and a set of atmosphere model sensitivity experiments. Our results show that the Atlantic SST variations alone, although leading to dry conditions in northern South America and wet conditions in northeastern Brazil, cannot produce increased precipitation over western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes during HS1. Instead, an eastern equatorial Pacific SST increase (i.e., 0.5-1.5 °C), in response to the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during HS1, is crucial to generate the wet conditions in these regions. The mechanism works via anomalous low sea level pressure over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which promotes a regional easterly low-level wind anomaly and moisture recycling from central Amazonia towards the Andes.

Numerical simulation on the southern flood and northern drought in summer 2014 over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lianlian; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Ma, Jiehua; Wang, Huijun

2017-12-01

In summer 2014, Eastern China suffered a typical "southern flood and northern drought" anomalous climate. Observational analyses indicated that the anomalous vertical motion, East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream, and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) played important roles in the formation of such precipitation anomaly. Furthermore, using the climate model (IAP-AGCM-4.1) perturbed by simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in global scale and four different regions (North Pacific, Indian Ocean, North Atlantic, and Equatorial Pacific), this study investigated the potential contribution of ocean to such "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China in summer 2014. The simulations forced by global-scale SSTAs or North Pacific SSTAs displayed the most similarity to the observed "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China. It was revealed that the global-scale and North Pacific SSTAs influenced the rainfall over Eastern China via modulating the EASM. The related simulations successfully reproduced the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. The experiment driven by Indian Ocean SSTAs could also reproduce the similar precipitation anomaly pattern and suggested that the Indian Ocean exerted pronounced influence on the North Pacific Subtropical High. Additionally, the simulations forced by SSTAs in the North Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific successfully reproduced the northern drought but failed to capture the southern flood. The simulations suggested that precipitation anomaly over Eastern China in summer 2014 was a comprehensive effect of global SSTAs and the dominant contribution to the "southern flood and northern drought" pattern came from the North Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Observation of F region irregularities near a northern equatorial anomaly crest during solar minimum using ionosonde, GPS receiver, and satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C.-C.; Chen, W. S.; Chu, F. D.

2013-06-01

For solar minimum, the spread F, GPS phase fluctuations, and plasma bubbles near the crest of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) are simultaneously analyzed to investigate F region irregularities for the first time. The data were observed using the Chungli ionosonde, YMSM GPS receiver, and DMSP satellites during 1996. It is found that in the observed ionograms, the frequency spread F (FSF) usually comes after the range spread F (RSF) in a series of nighttime spread F events. This results in that the maximum occurrence of RSF appears before that of FSF in the nighttime variations in occurrence probabilities. Moreover, the seasonal variation for RSF is close to that for FSF. Both have a board maximum in the J-months and a secondary maximum in December. These indicate that RSF and FSF should be regarded as one type of spread F, which is the all spread F (ASF) in this study. Because the equatorial plasma bubbles occur infrequently during solar minimum, the F region irregularities forming ASF are not related to the equatorial spread F. On the other hand, the similarity in seasonal occurrence between ASF and medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) demonstrates that the F region irregularities near the EIA crest are mainly generated by the gradient drift instability driven by MSTIDs. The irregularities, generated by MSTIDs, mostly occur in the bottom side of the F region. Consequently, the events of significant GPS phase fluctuations and plasma bubble near the EIA crest are rare during 1996.

Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric; Bolvin, David

1999-01-01

The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Numerical modeling of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA), equatorial temperature and wind anomaly (ETWA) and equatorial electron temperature anomaly (EETA) on the basis of the GSM TIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimenko, M. V.; Klimenko, V. V.; Bryukhanov, V. V.

On the basis of Global Self-consistent Model of Thermosphere Ionosphere and Protonosphere GSM TIP developed in WD IZMIRAN the calculations of the behavior of thermosphere F-region and upper ionosphere parameters at middle and low geomagnetic latitudes are carried out The calculations were carried out with use the new block of the calculation of electric fields in the ionosphere in which the decision of the three-dimensional equation describing the law of the conservation of the full current density in the ionosphere of the Earth is realized by adduction it to the two-dimensional by integration on the thickness of the current conductive layer of the ionosphere along equipotential geomagnetic field lines The calculations of the neutral atmosphere composition and temperature were executed with use of the MSIS model The quite geomagnetic conditions of the equinox were considered in the minimum of the solar activity There are presented the calculated global distributions of the critical frequency of the F2-layer of ionosphere for the different moments UT the latitudinal course of the N e and T e in the F-region and upper ionosphere in the vicinity of geomagnetic equator and unrolling on UT of the calculated velocities of zonal component of the thermospheric wind and ion temperature in the F-region of ionosphere as well as critical frequency and height of the F2-layer maximum of the ionosphere at three longitude chains of the stations Brazilian -- Fortaleza 4 0 r S 38 0 r W Jicamarca 11 9 r S 76 0 r W Cachoeira

The Pacific SST response to volcanic eruptions over the past millennium based on the CESM-LME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Man, W.; Zuo, M.

2017-12-01

The impact of the northern hemispheric, tropical and southern hemispheric volcanic eruptions on the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and its mechanism are investigated using the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble. Analysis of the simulations indicates that the Pacific SST features a significant El Niño-like pattern a few months after the northern hemispheric and tropical eruptions, and with a weaker such tendency after the southern hemispheric eruptions. Furthermore, the Niño3 index peaks lagging one and a half years after the northern hemispheric and tropical eruptions. Two years after all three types of volcanic eruptions, a La Niña-like pattern over the equatorial Pacific is observed, which seems to form an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In addition, the westerly anomalies at 850 hPa over the western-to-central Pacific appear ahead of the warm SST; hence, the El Niño-like warming over the eastern Pacific can be attributed to the weakening of the trade winds. We further examined the causes of westerly anomalies and find that a shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) can explain the El Niño-like response to the northern hemispheric eruptions, which is not applicable for tropical or southern hemispheric eruptions. Instead, the reduction in the zonal equatorial SST gradient through the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism, combined with the land-sea thermal contrast between the Maritime Continent (MC) and the surrounding ocean and the divergent wind induced by the decreased precipitation over the MC, can trigger the westerly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific, which is applicable for all three types of eruptions.

Electrodynamics of ionospheric weather over low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdu, Mangalathayil Ali

2016-12-01

The dynamic state of the ionosphere at low latitudes is largely controlled by electric fields originating from dynamo actions by atmospheric waves propagating from below and the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction from above. These electric fields cause structuring of the ionosphere in wide ranging spatial and temporal scales that impact on space-based communication and navigation systems constituting an important segment of our technology-based day-to-day lives. The largest of the ionosphere structures, the equatorial ionization anomaly, with global maximum of plasma densities can cause propagation delays on the GNSS signals. The sunset electrodynamics is responsible for the generation of plasma bubble wide spectrum irregularities that can cause scintillation or even disruptions of satellite communication/navigation signals. Driven basically by upward propagating tides, these electric fields can suffer significant modulations from perturbation winds due to gravity waves, planetary/Kelvin waves, and non-migrating tides, as recent observational and modeling results have demonstrated. The changing state of the plasma distribution arising from these highly variable electric fields constitutes an important component of the ionospheric weather disturbances. Another, often dominating, component arises from solar disturbances when coronal mass ejection (CME) interaction with the earth's magnetosphere results in energy transport to low latitudes in the form of storm time prompt penetration electric fields and thermospheric disturbance winds. As a result, drastic modifications can occur in the form of layer restructuring (Es-, F3 layers etc.), large total electron content (TEC) enhancements, equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) latitudinal expansion/contraction, anomalous polarization electric fields/vertical drifts, enhanced growth/suppression of plasma structuring, etc. A brief review of our current understanding of the ionospheric weather variations and the electrodynamic processes underlying them and some outstanding questions will be presented in this paper.

Salient features of the dayside low latitude ionospheric response to the main phase step-I of the 17 March 2015 geomagnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagiya, Mala S.; Sunil, A. S.; Chakrabarty, D.; Sunda, Surendra

2017-10-01

Based on TEC observations by India's GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) GPS network, we report the dayside low latitude ionospheric variations over the Indian region during the moderate main phase step-I of the 17 March 2015 geomagnetic storm. In addition, we assess the efficacy of GPS inferred TEC maps by International GNSS service (IGS) in capturing large scale diurnal features of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) over the Indian region during this period. Following the prompt penetration electric field (PPE) at ∼0605 UT, equatorial electrojet (EEJ) enhances by ∼55 nT over 75 ± 3oE longitudes where main phase step-I is coincided with local noon. Initial moderate EIA gradually strengthens with the storm commencement. Although GAGAN TEC exhibits more intense EIA evolution compare to IGS TEC maps, latitudinal extent of EIA are comparable in both. The enhanced EEJ reverses by ∼0918 UT under the effect of overshielding electric field, the later is accompanied by northward turning of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz. The weakening of well evolved EIA reflects in IGS TEC maps after ∼45 min of the overshielding occurrence. In contrary, GAGAN TEC shows the corresponding feature after ∼0115 h. Resurgence of EIA, following the PPE ∼1115 UT, shows up in GAGAN TEC but IGS TEC maps fails in capturing this feature. The observed low latitude TEC variations and EIA modulations are explained in terms of the varying storm time disturbance electric fields. The anomalies between the GAGAN TEC and IGS TEC maps are discussed in terms of the possible limitations of the IGS TEC maps in capturing storm time EIA variability over the Indian region.

On the structure of climate variability near the tropopause and its relationship to equatorial planetary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grise, Kevin M.

The tropopause is an important interface in the climate system, separating the unique dynamical, chemical, and radiative regimes of the troposphere and stratosphere. Previous studies have demonstrated that the long-term mean structure and variability of the tropopause results from a complex interaction of stratospheric and tropospheric processes. This project provides new insight into the processes involved in the global tropopause region through two perspectives: (1) a high vertical resolution climatology of static stability and (2) an observational analysis of equatorial planetary waves. High vertical resolution global positioning system radio occultation profiles are used to document fine-scale features of the global static stability field near the tropopause. Consistent with previous studies, a region of enhanced static stability, known as the tropopause inversion layer (TIL), exists in a narrow layer above the extratropical tropopause and is strongest over polar regions during summer. However, in the tropics, the TIL possesses a unique horizontally and vertically varying structure with maxima located at ˜17 and ˜19 km. The upper feature peaks during boreal winter and has its largest magnitude between 10º and 15º latitude in both hemispheres; the lower feature exhibits a weaker seasonal cycle and is centered at the Equator. The spatial structure of both features resembles the equatorial planetary wave response to the climatological distribution of deep convection. Equatorial planetary waves not only dominate the climatological-mean general circulation near the tropical tropopause but also play an important role in its intraseasonal and interannual variability. The structure of the equatorial planetary waves emerges as the leading pattern of variability of the zonally asymmetric tropical atmospheric circulation. Regressions on an index of the equatorial planetary waves reveal that they are associated with a distinct pattern of equatorially symmetric climate variability characterized by variations in: (1) the distribution of convection in the deep tropics; (2) the eddy momentum flux convergence and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the tropical upper troposphere; (3) the mean meridional circulation of the tropical and subtropical troposphere; (4) temperatures in the tropical upper troposphere, the tropical lower stratosphere, and the subtropical troposphere of both hemispheres; and (5) the amplitude of the upper tropospheric anticyclones that straddle the Equator over the western tropical Pacific Ocean. The pulsation of the equatorial planetary waves in time provides a framework for interpreting a broad range of climate phenomena. Variability in the equatorial planetary waves is associated with variability in the tropical TIL and is linked to both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Evidence is presented that suggests that the MJO can be viewed as the linear superposition of: (1) the pulsation of the equatorial planetary waves at a fixed location and (2) a propagating component. Variability in the equatorial planetary waves may also contribute to variability in troposphere/stratosphere exchange and the width of the tropical belt.

Is Solar Variability Reflected in the Nile River?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan; Yung, Yuk L.

2006-01-01

We investigate the possibility that solar variability influences North African climate by using annual records of the water level of the Nile collected in 622-1470 A.D. The time series of these records are nonstationary, in that the amplitudes and frequencies of the quasi-periodic variations are time-dependent. We apply the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique especially designed to deal with such time series. We identify two characteristic timescales in the records that may be linked to solar variability: a period of about 88 years and one exceeding 200 years. We show that these timescales are present in the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere at the same time. The 11-year cycle is seen in the Nile's high-water level variations, but it is damped in the low-water anomalies. We suggest a possible physical link between solar variability and the low-frequency variations of the Nile water level. This link involves the influence of solar variability on the atmospheric Northern Annual Mode and on its North Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean patterns that affect the rainfall over the sources of the Nile in eastern equatorial Africa.

Variations of Scale Height at F-Region Peak Based on Ionosonde Measurements during Solar Maximum over the Crest of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Region

PubMed Central

Chuo, Yu-Jung

2014-01-01

Scale height is an important parameter in characterizing the shape of the ionosphere and its physical processes. In this study, we attempt to examine and discuss the variation of scale height, H m, around the F-layer peak height during high solar activity at the northern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) region. H m exhibits day-to-day variation and seasonal variation, with a greater average daily variation during daytime in summer. Furthermore, the diurnal variation of H m exhibits an abnormal peak at presunrise during all the seasons, particularly in winter. This increase is also observed in the F2-layer peak height for the same duration with an upward movement associated with thermospheric wind toward the equator; this upward movement increases the N2/O ratio and H m, but it causes a decrease in the F2-layer maximum critical frequency during the presunrise period. PMID:25162048

Gliders Measure Western Boundary Current Transport from the South Pacific to the Equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, R. E.; Kessler, W. S.; Sherman, J. T.

2011-12-01

Since 2007, the Consortium on the Ocean's Role in Climate (CORC) has used repeated glider transects across the southern Solomon Sea to measure the previously nearly unsampled mass and heat transport from the South Pacific to the equatorial zone. Mean transport is dominated by the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCUC). This low-latitude western boundary current is a major element of the shallow meridional overturning circulation, returning water from the subtropical South Pacific to the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) where it upwells. We find the mean NGCUC to be a jet less than 100 km wide, centered near 300 m depth, with equatorward velocities reaching 35 cm/s and salinity anomalies on isopycnals up to 0.05. Weaker poleward flow is found near the surface in the eastern basin. Equatorward transport above 700 m is typically 20 Sv, but nearly vanished during two La Niñas and reached 25 Sv during an El Niño. Within these events the seasonal cycle cannot yet be defined. Transport variability is strongest outside the boundary current and appears to consist of two independently moving layers with a boundary near 250 m. ENSO variability is predominantly in the upper layer. The relation of Solomon Sea mass and heat transport with ENSO indicators will be discussed The ability to initiate and maintain measurements that support such quantitative analyses with a small effort in a remote site far from research institutions demonstrates that gliders can be a productive part of the global ocean observing system.

The solar and equatorial QBO influences on the stratospheric circulation during the early northern-hemisphere winter. [Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kodera, Kunihiko

1991-06-01

A case study was conducted to investigate the mechanism of how the solar cycle and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) influence the stratospheric circulation during the Northern-Hemisphere winter. It was found that the solar and QBO influences on the stratospheric jet exist rather independently in the upper stratosphere during December. The mean-zonal wind anomalies produced in early winter persist by deformation until late winter through wave-mean flow interactions with planetary waves. The modulation effect of the solar influence by the QBO takes place during this process.

Role of equatorial waves in tropical cyclogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreck, Carl J., III

Tropical cyclones typically form within preexisting wavelike disturbances that couple with convection. Using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multisatellite rainfall estimates, this study determines the relative number of tropical cyclones that can be attributed to various wave types, including the Madden--Julian oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, mixed Rossby--gravity (MRG) waves, and tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave's convection when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. More storms are attributed to TD-type disturbances than to any other wave type in all of the Northern Hemisphere basins. In the Southern Hemisphere, however, ER waves and TD-type disturbances are equally important as precursors. Fewer storms are attributed to MRG waves, Kelvin waves, and the MJO in every basin. Although relatively few storms are attributed to the MJO, tropical cyclogenesis is 2.6 times more likely in its convective phase compared with its suppressed phase. This modulation arises in part because each equatorial wave type is amplified within MJO's convective phase. The amplification significantly increases the probability that these waves will act as tropical cyclone precursors. A case study from June 2002 illustrates the effects of a series of Kelvin waves on two tropical cyclone formations. These waves were embedded in the convective phase of the MJO. Together, the MJO and the Kelvin waves preconditioned the low-level environment for cyclogenesis. The first Kelvin wave weakened the trade easterlies, while the subsequent waves created monsoon westerlies near the equator. These westerlies provided the background cyclonic vorticity within which both storms developed. The effects of tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies are also investigated. In the wavenumber--frequency spectrum for rainfall, tropical cyclones can inflate the power for shorter wavelength westward propagating waves by up to 27%. This spectrum contains signals from all longitudes, but the greatest contamination occurs in regions like the Philippines where tropical cyclones are most frequent. Here, tropical cyclones contribute more than 40% of the rainfall variance in each filter band. To mitigate these effects, tropical cyclone-related anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Intra-seasonal Mixed Layer Process Variability from the ECCO Ocean Data Assimilation Product: Preliminary Analysis Relevant to DYNAMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, T.; Lucas, L. E.; Murtugudde, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant feature of 30-90 day variability in the tropical Indian (IO) and Pacific (PO) Oceans, plays an important role in air-sea interactions and affects multi-scale phenomena ranging from hurricanes to ENSO. Understanding the MJO requires knowledge of ocean mixed layer (ML) heat budgets. As part of a model-data intercomparison planned for 2011-13 to support the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) project (a US branch of the CINDY2011 international field program), we perform ML heat budget calculations using a heat-conserving assimilation product from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) project to study the onset and evolution of MJO scale anomalies in the tropics. For the IO, we focus on the western equatorial basin and the southwest IO thermocline ridge. Here, upwelling processes are very important, indicating a slab or 1-D ocean model is insufficient for accurate MJO simulation. We also examine several locations across the equatorial PO. For example, in the eastern PO, we compare results from ECCO to prior studies with different findings: one based on incomplete mooring data indicating vertical processes dominate, another based on model output that indicates meridional advection dominates in the same area. In ECCO, subsurface process and horizontal advection terms are both important, but their relationships to the net tendency vary spatially. This work has implications for understanding MJO onset and development, associated air-sea interactions, ramifications for multi-scale cross-equatorial heat transport (especially in the IO), and, it is likely to be important in constructing a predictive index for MJO onset. We present budgets in terms of variability of the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, as well as mixed layer and barrier layer depths, and we address DYNAMO’s third hypothesis: “The barrier-layer, wind and shear driven mixing, shallow thermocline, and mixing-layer entrainment all play essential roles in MJO initiation in the Indian Ocean by controlling the upper-ocean heat content and SST, and thereby surface flux feedback.”

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. II - Dynamical analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T. J.

1984-01-01

The heating associated with equatorial, subtropical, and midlatitude ocean temperature anamolies in the Held-Suarez climate model is analyzed. The local and downstream response to the anomalies is analyzed, first by examining the seasonal variation in heating associated with each ocean temperature anomaly, and then by combining knowledge of the heating with linear dynamical theory in order to develop a more comprehensive explanation of the seasonal variation in local and downstream atmospheric response to each anomaly. The extent to which the linear theory of propagating waves can assist the interpretation of the remote cross-latitudinal response of the model to the ocean temperature anomalies is considered. Alternative hypotheses that attempt to avoid the contradictions inherent in a strict application of linear theory are investigated, and the impact of sampling errors on the assessment of statistical significance is also examined.

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

1999-01-01

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Intraseasonal flow and its impact on the chlorophyll-a concentration in the Sunda Strait and its vicinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tengfei; Li, Shujiang; Hamzah, Faisal; Setiawan, Agus; Susanto, R. Dwi; Cao, Guojiao; Wei, Zexun

2018-06-01

Sunda Strait is the outflow strait of the South China Sea branch of the Pacific to Indian Ocean Throughflow. The annual mean volume transport through the Sunda Strait is around 0.25 Sv from the Java Sea to the eastern Indian Ocean, only 2.5% of the IndonesianThroughflow, and thus has been ignored by previous investigations. However, the Nutrient concentrations in the Sunda Strait and its vicinity are found highly related to the water transport through the Sunda Strait. Particularly, our observation shows significant intraseasonal variability (ISV) of currents at period around 25-45 days in the Sunda Strait. Both remote and local wind forcing contribute to the ISVs in the Sunda Strait. The intraseasonal oscillation of sea surface wind in the central Indian Ocean drives upwelling/downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves to propagate along the equator and subsequently along the Sumatra-Java coasts, resulting in negative/positive sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait. The local intraseasonal sea surface wind anomalies also tend to induce negative/positive sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait by offshore/onshore Ekman transport while there are upwelling/downwelling events. The ensuring sea level gradient associated with the sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait induces intraseasonal outflow (from Indian Ocean to Java Sea) and inflow (from Java Sea to Indian Ocean) through the strait. Analyses also show that the chlorophyll-a concentrations in the south of the Sunda Strait are lower/higher during the inflow/outflow period of the ISV events in March through May. The mechanism attributes to both the nutrient-rich water transported by the intraseasonal flow in the Sunda Strait and by the upwelling and Ekman transport driven by the local sea surface wind anomalies.

An evaluation of the effect of recent temperature variability on the prediction of coral bleaching events.

PubMed

Donner, Simon D

2011-07-01

Over the past 30 years, warm thermal disturbances have become commonplace on coral reefs worldwide. These periods of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) can lead to coral bleaching, a breakdown of the symbiosis between the host coral and symbiotic dinoflagellates which reside in coral tissue. The onset of bleaching is typically predicted to occur when the SST exceeds a local climatological maximum by 1 degrees C for a month or more. However, recent evidence suggests that the threshold at which bleaching occurs may depend on thermal history. This study uses global SST data sets (HadISST and NOAA AVHRR) and mass coral bleaching reports (from Reefbase) to examine the effect of historical SST variability on the accuracy of bleaching prediction. Two variability-based bleaching prediction methods are developed from global analysis of seasonal and interannual SST variability. The first method employs a local bleaching threshold derived from the historical variability in maximum annual SST to account for spatial variability in past thermal disturbance frequency. The second method uses a different formula to estimate the local climatological maximum to account for the low seasonality of SST in the tropics. The new prediction methods are tested against the common globally fixed threshold method using the observed bleaching reports. The results find that estimating the bleaching threshold from local historical SST variability delivers the highest predictive power, but also a higher rate of Type I errors. The second method has the lowest predictive power globally, though regional analysis suggests that it may be applicable in equatorial regions. The historical data analysis suggests that the bleaching threshold may have appeared to be constant globally because the magnitude of interannual variability in maximum SST is similar for many of the world's coral reef ecosystems. For example, the results show that a SST anomaly of 1 degrees C is equivalent to 1.73-2.94 standard deviations of the maximum monthly SST for two-thirds of the world's coral reefs. Coral reefs in the few regions that experience anomalously high interannual SST variability like the equatorial Pacific could prove critical to understanding how coral communities acclimate or adapt to frequent and/or severe thermal disturbances.

A two-dimensional model study of the QBO signal in SAGE II NO2 and O3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chipperfield, M. P.; Gray, L. J.; Kinnersley, J. S.; Zawodny, J.

1994-01-01

Calculations of the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) signal in Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II O3 and NO2 data between 1984 and 1991 are presented and have been investigated by using a two-dimensional model. The isentropic 2D model is a fully interactive radiative-dynamical-chemical model in which the eddy fluxes of chemical species are calculated in a consistent manner. The QBO in the model has been forced by relaxing the equatorial zonal wind toward the observations at Singapore allowing the comparison of the model with observations from specific years. The model reproduces the observed vertical structure of the equatorial ozone anomaly with the well-known transition from dynamical to photochemical control at around 28km. The model also reproduces the observed vertical structure of the SAGE II observed NO2 anomaly. The model studies have shown that it is the QBO modulation of NO2 which the main cause of QBO signal in O3 above 30 km. The model also reproduces the observed latitudinal structure of the QBO signals in O3 and NO2. Due to the differing horizontal distribution of O3 and NO(y) the ozone signal shows a distinct phase change in the subtropics whereas the NO2 anomaly gives a broader signal.

An overview of new insights from satellite salinity missions on oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reul, Nicolas

2015-04-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, launched on 2 November 2009, is the European Space Agency's (ESA) second Earth Explorer Opportunity mission. The scientific objectives of the SMOS mission directly respond to the need for global observations of soil moisture and ocean salinity, two key variables describing the Earth's water cycle and having been identified as Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). After five years of satellite Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) monitoring from SMOS data, we will present an overview of the scientific highlights these data have brougtht to the oceanographic communities. In particular, we shall review the impact of SMOS SSS and brightness tempeaerture data for the monitoring of: -Mesoscale variability of SSS (and density) in frontal structures, eddies, -Ocean propagative SSS signals (e.g. TIW, planetary waves), -Freshwater flux Monitoring (Evaportaion minus precipitation, river run off), -Large scale SSS anomalies related to climate fluctuations (e.g. ENSO, IOD), -Air-Sea interactions (equatorial upwellings, Tropical cyclone wakes) -Temperature-Salinity dependencies, -Sea Ice thickness, -Tropical Storm and high wind monitoring, -Ocean surface bio-geo chemistry.

Ionospheric TEC Weather Map Over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, H.; Wrasse, C. M.; Denardini, C. M.; Pádua, M. B.; de Paula, E. R.; Costa, S. M. A.; Otsuka, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Monico, J. F. Galera; Ivo, A.; Sant'Anna, N.

2016-11-01

Ionospheric weather maps using the total electron content (TEC) monitored by ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers over South American continent, TECMAP, have been operationally produced by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais's Space Weather Study and Monitoring Program (Estudo e Monitoramento Brasileiro de Clima Especial) since 2013. In order to cover the whole continent, four GNSS receiver networks, (Rede Brasileiro de Monitoramento Contínuo) RBMC/Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, Low-latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network, International GNSS Service, and Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo, in total 140 sites, have been used. TECMAPs with a time resolution of 10 min are produced in 12 h time delay. Spatial resolution of the map is rather low, varying between 50 and 500 km depending on the density of the observation points. Large day-to-day variabilities of the equatorial ionization anomaly have been observed. Spatial gradient of TEC from the anomaly trough (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m-2 (TECU) <10) to the crest region (TECU > 80) causes a large ionospheric range delay in the GNSS positioning system. Ionospheric plasma bubbles, their seeding and development, could be monitored. This plasma density (spatial and temporal) variability causes not only the GNSS-based positioning error but also radio wave scintillations. Monitoring of these phenomena by TEC mapping becomes an important issue for space weather concern for high-technology positioning system and telecommunication.

The Interrelationship Between Temperature Changes in the Free Atmosphere and Sea Surface Temperature Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, Reginald E.; Wu, Zhong-Xiang

1992-03-01

Fields of sea surface temperature anomalies from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) and microwave sounding measurements (MSU) of temperature in the troposphere are examined separately and together for the 1979-1988 period. Global correlation patterns of both sets of fields are investigated at a range of leads and lags up to 6 months and exhibit a wide range of correlation structure. There are regions, such as the tropical eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature anomalies persist for several months and are associated with local air temperature anomalies; in this particular example, about 0.7°C air temperature change is associated with a 1.0°C sea temperature change. By contrast, some ocean regions and many atmospheric regions, mostly in middle and high latitude, show only local spatial correlations that disappear completely in a month or two. The most persistent and extensive spatial correlation patterns are quite different for the sea and the air. In the sea the "butterfly" pattern of the Pacific is the most important and reverses sign between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific and subtropics. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies associated with this pattern are similar to the correlation pattern. For the atmosphere the main correlation pattern is an equatorial belt with no sign changes in the tropics; this pattern is linked to the oceanic El Niño mode. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies show peak values on both sides of the equator in the eastern and central Pacific. Based mainly on the results from the spatial patterns, certain regions are selected for intercomparison of time series. In the tropical eastern Pacific the sea leads the air by about a month while in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions the sequence is reversed.

Equatorial Plasma Bubble Development and Dynamics, and Sporadic E Layer Structuring, under Storm Time Electric Fields.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdu, M. A.; Batista, I. S.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Souza, J.; Santos, A.

2016-12-01

Equatorial and low - midlatitude ionospheric plasma dynamics and related phenomenology can be severely affected by disturbance electric fields associated with magnetic storms. Penetration electric fields, of under-shielding or over-shielding types, can cause anomalous development of plasma bubbles even during their non-occurrence season, or can lead to suppression of their normal development. Depending upon the longitude sector and local time, large relative changes in the Hall and Pedersen conductivities can occur due to storm induced extra E layer ionization or modifications in F layer plasma density, as a result of which the penetration electric fields may produce, among other effects, (1) plasma bubble zonal drift velocity reversal to westward, (2) large/abnormal F layer plasma uplift, (3) sporadic E layer disruption or its formation with instabilities. Beside these effects, the equatorial ionization anomaly is known to suffer latitudinal expansion and retraction. In this paper we will discuss some outstanding response features of the low altitude ionosphere under disturbance electric field as diagnosed by Digisondes, radars and optical imagers in the South American longitude sector, a region that is strongly influenced by the South Atlantic Magnetic anomaly (SAMA). The results will be discussed in the context of satellite observations (from C/NOFS) and modeling results based on SUPIM simulation of a realistic low latitude ionosphere.

Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on water budget transported by the Somali low-level jet and the associated Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordonez, Paulina; Ribera, Pedro; Gallego, David; Pena-Ortiz, Cristina

2013-10-01

Recent studies suggest that there is a strong linkage between the moisture uptake over the equatorial area of the Somali low level jet (SLLJ) and the rainfall variability over most of continental India. Additionally, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) strongly modulates the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, since the northward propagation of the boreal summer MJO is closely associated with the active and break phases of monsoon rainfall. But a question remains open: is there a relationship between the moisture transported by the SLLJ and the MJO evolution? In this paper, a Lagrangian approach is used to track the evaporation minus precipitation (E - P) evolution along trajectories of particles initially situated over the equatorial region of SLLJ. The impact of the MJO on the water budget transport of the SLLJ is examined by making composites of the obtained (E-P) fields for the different MJO phases. The spatial structures of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation are revealed in our results, which strongly suggest that the main responsible for the rainfall variability associated to the MJO in these regions are the changes in the moisture advected by the SLLJ. In order to assess the MJO-SLLJ interaction, an analysis of the total-column mass and the total-column specific humidity transported by the SLLJ during the MJO life cycle is performed. While a systematic difference between air mass advected to India during active and break phases of MJO is not detected, changes in the moisture of particles are found, with wet (dry) anomalies over enhanced (suppressed) convection region. This result implicitly leads to assume air-sea interaction processes.

A study of Equartorial wave characteristics using rockets, balloons, lidar and radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasi, M.; Krishna Murthy, B.; Ramkumar, G.; Satheesan, K.; Parameswaran, K.; Rajeev, K.; Sunilkumar, S.; Nair, P.; Krishna Murthy, K.; Bhavanikumar, Y.; Raghunath, K.; Jain, A.; Rao, P.; Krishnaiah, M.; Nayar, S.; Revathy, K.

Dynamics of low latitude middle atmosphere is dominated by the zonal wind quasi- biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere and zonl wind semiannual oscillation (SAO) in the stratopause and mesopause regions. Equatorial waves play a significant role in the evolution of QBO and SAO through wave- mean flow interactions resulting in momentum transfer from the waves to the mean flow in the equatorial middle atmosphere. With the objective of characterising the equatorial wave characteristics and momentum fluxes associated with them a campaign experiment was conducted in 2000 using RH-200 rockets, balloons, Raleigh lidar and MST radar. Winds and temperatures in the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere over two low latitude stations Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and SHAR (13.7°N, 80.2°E) were measured, using MST Radar, Rayleigh Lidar, balloons and RH-200 rockets, for 40 consecutive days from 21 February to 01 April 2000 and were used for the study of equatorial waves and their interactions with the background mean flow in various atmospheric regions. The study shows the occurrence of a strong stratospheric cooling (~25 K) anomaly along with a zonal wind anomaly and this low-latitude event appears to be linked to high-latitude stratospheric warming event and leads to subsequent generation of short period (~5 days) oscillations lasting for a few cycles in the stratosphere. A slow Kelvin wave (~18 day period), fast Kelvin wave (~8 days) and ultra fast Kelvin wave (~3.3 day period) and RG wave (~4.8 day period) have been identified. There are indications of slow and ultra fast Kelvin waves, in addition to fast Kelvin waves, contributing to the evolution of the westerly phase of the stratopause SAO.

Simultaneous observations of F2 layer stratification and spread F at postmidnight over a northern equatorial anomaly region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chunhua; Yang, Guobin; Deng, Chi; Zhou, Chen; Zhu, Peng; Yokoyama, Tatsuhiro; Song, Huan; Lan, Ting; Ni, Binbin; Zhao, Zhengyu; Zhang, Yuannong

2015-12-01

Simultaneous observations of F2 layer stratification and spread F at postmidnight (00:00 LT to 05:00 LT) were carried out on 22, 23, and 28 November 2013, using ionosondes distributed over a northern equatorial anomaly region at three specific locations, i.e., Puer (PUR, 22.7°N, 101.05°E, dip latitude 12.9°N), Chiang Mai (CMU, 18.8°N, 98.9°E, dip latitude 9.04°N), and Chumphon (CPN, 10.7°N, 99.4°E, dip latitude 0.93°N). The results show that both the PUR and CMU stations observed the F2 layer stratification at postmidnight in the Northern Hemisphere, frequently accompanied with gravity waves (the periods~30-100 min). It is reported that F2 layer stratification at postmidnight can be observed in the Northern Hemisphere for the first time. It is suggested that the thermospheric neutral wind triggered by gravity waves strongly contribute to the altitude dependence of the combined vertical plasma velocity, which consequently poses significant impacts on the occurrence of the low-latitude F2 layer stratification at postmidnight. In addition, the spread F other than F2 layer stratification was observed at the CPN station located at the geomagnetic equator, suggesting that smaller geomagnetic inclination tend to inhibit the postmidnight F2 layer stratification in the equatorial region. Furthermore, on 23 November 2013 a good correlation was identified between the F2 layer stratification at PUR and the spread F at both CMU and CPN, possibly due to that the large-scale gravity waves originating at middle latitudes contribute to the nighttime spread F observed in the low-latitude and equatorial regions.

Statistical analysis of the correlation between the equatorial electrojet and the occurrence of the equatorial ionisation anomaly over the East African sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mungufeni, Patrick; Bosco Habarulema, John; Migoya-Orué, Yenca; Jurua, Edward

2018-06-01

This study presents statistical quantification of the correlation between the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and the occurrence of the equatorial ionisation anomaly (EIA) over the East African sector. The data used were for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp ≤ 3) during the period 2011-2013. The horizontal components, H, of geomagnetic fields measured by magnetometers located at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (dip lat. ˜ 1° N), and Adigrat, Ethiopia (dip lat. ˜ 6° N), were used to determine the EEJ using differential techniques. The total electron content (TEC) derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals using 19 receivers located along the 30-40° longitude sector was used to determine the EIA strengths over the region. This was done by determining the ratio of TEC over the crest to that over the trough, denoted as the CT : TEC ratio. This technique necessitated characterisation of the morphology of the EIA over the region. We found that the trough lies slightly south of the magnetic equator (0-4° S). This slight southward shift of the EIA trough might be due to the fact that over the East African region, the general centre of the EEJ is also shifted slightly south of the magnetic equator. For the first time over the East African sector, we determined a threshold daytime EEJ strength of ˜ 40 nT that is mostly associated with prominent EIA occurrence during a high solar activity period. The study also revealed that there is a positive correlation between daytime EEJ and EIA strengths, with a strong positive correlation occurring during the period 13:00-15:00 LT.

Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Heather L.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Polissar, Pratigya J.

2015-01-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.

Land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the southeastern Atlantic: interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaoming; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

2018-02-01

Land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the southeastern South Atlantic and their connections to interannual variability are examined using a regional climate model coupled with an intermediate-level ocean model. In austral summer, zonal displacements of the South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) can induce variations of mixed-layer currents in the Benguela upwelling region through surface wind stress curl anomalies near the Namibian coast, and an eastward shifted SASH is related to the first Pacific-South American mode. When the SASH is meridionally displaced, mixed layer vertically-integrated Ekman transport anomalies are mainly a response to the change of alongshore surface wind stress. The latitudinal shift of the SASH tends to dampen the anomalous alongshore wind by modulating the land-sea thermal contrast, while opposed by oceanic diffusion. Although the position of the SASH is closely linked to the phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM) in austral summer, an overall relationship between Benguela upwelling strength and ENSO or SAM is absent. During austral winter, variations of the mixed layer Ekman transport in the Benguela upwelling region are connected to the strength of the SASH through its impact on both coastal wind stress curl and alongshore surface wind stress. Compared with austral summer, low-level cloud cover change plays a more important role. Although wintertime sea surface temperature fluctuations in the equatorial Atlantic are strong and may act to influence variability over the northern Benguela area, the surface heat budget analysis suggests that local air-sea interactions dominate.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the Interannual Variability of Baiu Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaura, T.; Tomita, T.

2011-12-01

This work examines the contribution of tropical cyclones to the interannual variability of Baiu precipitation with the large-scale interannual variations in the tropics, that is, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) in the Asian monsoon. The data used are the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project/Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The diagnosed months and the time period are June and July, and 30 years from 1979 to 2008. When the negative precipitation anomalies appear in the entire Baiu front with the cold ENSO phase, the number of tropical cyclones increases around the northern part of the Philippines, and a larger-scale anomalous cyclone is formed there. Tropical cyclones contribute to strengthening the anomalous cyclone. Anomalous convective activity in the anomalous cyclone excites Rossby waves that propagate northward within the low-level jet and form an anomalous anticyclone around Japan. The anomalous anticyclone decreases the Baiu precipitation. On the other hand, the number of tropical cyclones decreases, and an anomalous anticyclone is set around the northern part of the Philippines, when the positive precipitation anomalies are observed in the Baiu front with the warm ENSO phase. The contribution of tropical cyclones is insignificant in this phase. The warm and cold TBO phases are judged from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific that is different from the region for ENSO. In the cold TBO phase with the negative SST anomalies, there appear the negative precipitation anomalies around Kyushu and the positive ones to the southeast of Japan. Concurrently, an anomalous cyclone appears, and the accumulated cyclone energy estimated from the tropical cyclones increases to the southeast of Japan. Tropical cyclones contribute to forming the anomalous cyclone, which shifts the axis of monsoon southwesterlies southward. Thus, the negative precipitation anomalies and the positive ones appear in Kyushu and to the southeast of Japan. In the opposite TBO phase, an anomalous anticyclone is set to the southeast of Japan and suppresses tropical cyclones there. The contribution of tropical cyclones is small in this case. As such, local tropical cyclones contribute to the interannual variation of the Baiu precipitation with larger atmospheric circulations in the western North Pacific.

Equatorial ionospheric disturbances over the East African sector during the 2015 St. Patrick's day storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olwendo, O. J.; Cesaroni, C.; Yamazaki, Y.; Cilliers, P.

2017-10-01

During solar cycle 24, the St. Patrick's Day storm on 17 March, 2015 was one of the most severe geomagnetic storms. Several research investigations have been done and are still ongoing about this storm since the dynamics of this storm differs on a global scale from one sector to another. This study examines the response of the equatorial ionosphere to the storm in the East African sector. Total electron content (TEC) data from ground stations are used to investigate the evolution of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) during the storm. The TEC observations show a reduced EIA during 18-20 March 2015, consistent with previous studies at other longitudes. Analyses of ground magnetometer data and the thermospheric composition data from the NASA/TIMED satellite reveal that the reduced EIA during the storm can arise from the combined effect of the disturbance dynamo and composition change.

Interannual summer variability in oceanic euphausiid communities off the Baja California western coast during 1998-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parés-Escobar, Fernanda; Lavaniegos, Bertha E.; Ambriz-Arreola, Israel

2018-01-01

Euphausiids are a major component of the zooplankton biomass due to their large size, contributing with high carbon content to other trophic levels in the pelagic ecosystem. We analyzed the summer interannual variability in euphausiid species composition based on carbon mass of the Baja California oceanic domain during 1998-2008. Selection of one exclusive season allowed the emphasis of interannual changes in order to research possible biological impacts. During the period 1998-2008 prevailed intense interannual activity, with four El Niño events, two of them (1997-1998 and 2006-2007) with SST anomalies propagating toward the eastern Pacific (EP-El Niño), while the other two (2002-2003 and 2004-2005) had SST anomalies limited to the central Pacific (CP-El Niño). There were also La Niña events in 1998-2000 and 2007-2008. The species with higher biomass contribution off Baja California were Nematoscelis difficilis, Euphausia gibboides, Thysanoessa gregaria, Euphausia eximia, Nyctiphanes simplex, and Euphausia pacifica, with a global geometric mean of 156, 66, 38, 30, 21, and 13 μg C m-3 respectively. N. difficilis and E. pacifica were dominant in the northern area (29.5-32°N), N. difficilis and E. gibboides in the central area (27-29.5°N), and E. eximia dominated in the southern area (24.5-27°N). 1998-2008 biomass anomalies showed a variety of patterns by species with the clearest footprint, in most of the species, during the strong EP-El Niño 1997-1998. CP-El Niño events also left a footprint in the biomass of some species but this was not always by anomalies of the same nature as EP-El Niño. The best examples were N. difficilis and N. simplex, which presented lightly positive anomalies during July 1998 but were strongly negative in the summer of 2003 and 2004. The opposite was observed in E. recurva, with a negative anomaly in July 1998 but positive in 2004 and 2005. The biophysical coupling between the species assemblage and environmental variables, using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), explained 22% of the biomass variability. The first axis was responsible for thermal conditions in the upper layer (temperature at 10 m, 50 m, and the gradient between 10 and 100 m depth), while the second axis concentrated the oxygen gradient, oxygen and salinity at 50 m depth, and 200 m temperature. A large group of tropical-subtropical species showed covariance with axis-1, while E. pacifica and T. spinifera had an inverse covariance. The equatorial species E. distinguenda and E. lamelligera were close to axis-2, though the stations were limited to slope water where intense upwelling bring oxygen depleted deep water. Transition zone species (E. gibboides, N. difficilis, T. gregaria, and N. simplex) were relatively inert to both axes. Their response to climatic variability was less predictable and new variables should be explored, including bottom-up and top-down mechanisms.

Potential Impact of North Atlantic Climate Variability on Ocean Biogeochemical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Muhling, B.; Lee, S. K.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Enfield, D. B.; Lamkin, J. T.; Roffer, M. A.

2016-02-01

Previous studies have shown that upper ocean circulations largely determine primary production in the euphotic layers, here the global ocean model with biogeochemistry (GFDL's Modular Ocean Model with TOPAZ biogeochemistry) forced with the ERA-Interim is used to simulate the natural variability of biogeochemical processes in global ocean during 1979-present. Preliminary results show that the surface chlorophyll is overall underestimated in MOM-TOPAZ, but its spatial pattern is fairly realistic. Relatively high chlorophyll variability is shown in the subpolar North Atlantic, northeastern tropical Atlantic, and equatorial Atlantic. Further analysis suggests that the chlorophyll variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is affected by long-term climate variability. For the subpolar North Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is light-limited and is significantly correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation. A dipole pattern of chlorophyll variability is found between the northeastern tropical Atlantic and equatorial Atlantic. For the northeastern North Atlantic, the chlorophyll variability is significantly correlated with Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During the negative phase of AMM and AMO, the increased trade wind in the northeast North Atlantic can lead to increased upwelling of nutrients. In the equatorial Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is largely link to Atlantic-Niño and associated equatorial upwelling of nutrients. The potential impact of climate variability on the distribution of pelagic fishes (i.e. yellowfin tuna) are discussed.

African hydroclimatic variability during the last 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, David J.; De Cort, Gijs; Chase, Brian M.; Verschuren, Dirk; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Shanahan, Timothy M.; Asrat, Asfawossen; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Grab, Stefan W.

2016-12-01

The African continent is characterised by a wide range of hydroclimate regimes, ranging from humid equatorial West Africa to the arid deserts in the northern and southern subtropics. The livelihoods of much of its population are also vulnerable to future climate change, mainly through variability in rainfall affecting water resource availability. A growing number of data sources indicate that such hydroclimatic variability is an intrinsic component of Africa's natural environment. This paper, co-authored by members of the PAGES Africa 2k Working Group, presents an extensive assessment and discussion of proxy, historical and instrumental evidence for hydroclimatic variability across the African continent, spanning the last two millennia. While the African palaeoenvironmental record is characterised by spatially disjunctive datasets, with often less-than-optimal temporal resolution and chronological control, the available evidence allows the assessment of prominent spatial patterns of palaeomoisture variability through time. In this study, we focus sequentially on data for six major time windows: the first millennium CE, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1250 CE), the Little Ice Age (1250-1750 CE), the end of the LIA (1750-1850 CE), the Early Modern Period (1850-1950), and the period of recent warming (1950 onwards). This results in a continent-wide synthesis of regional moisture-balance trends through history, allowing consideration of possible driving mechanisms, and suggestions for future research.

Operation of SCINDA Receiver at the University of Calcutta and Space Weather Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-18

Terr . Phys., 2014]. (ii) The pole ward gradient of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) introduces more intense propagation effects on...in the Indian longitude sector: Case studies, T. Das, K.S. Paul and A. Paul, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr . Phys., http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp

Seasonal and solar cycle dependence of F3-layer near the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagundes, P. R.; Klausner, V.; Bittencourt, J. A.; Sahai, Y.; Abalde, J. R.

2011-08-01

The occurrence of an additional F3-layer has been reported at Brazilian, Indian and Asian sectors by several investigators. In this paper, we report for the first time the seasonal variations of F3-layer carried out near the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) at São José dos Campos (23.2°S, 45.0°W; dip latitude 17.6°S - Brazil) as a function of solar cycle. The period from September 2000 to August 2001 is used as representative of high solar activity (HSA) and the period from January 2006 to December 2006 as representative of low solar activity (LSA). This investigation shows that during HSA there is a maximum occurrence of F3-layer during summer time and a minimum during winter time. However, during LSA, there is no seasonal variation in the F3-layer occurrence. Also, the frequency of occurrence of the F3-layer during HSA is 11 times more than during LSA.

Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watterson, I. G.

2018-05-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other variables simulated by 40 current climate models for the 21st century are approximated as the product of the global mean warming and a spatial pattern of scaled changes. These fields of standardized change contain consistent features of simulated change, such as larger warming over land and increased high-latitude precipitation. However, they also differ across the ensemble, with standard deviations exceeding 0.2 for temperature over most continents, and 6% per degree for tropical precipitation. These variations are found to correlate, often strongly, with indices based on those of modes of interannual variability. Annular mode indices correlate, across the 40 models, with regional pressure changes and seasonal rainfall changes, particularly in South America and Europe. Equatorial ocean warming rates link to widespread anomalies, similarly to ENSO. A Pacific-Indian Dipole (PID) index representing the gradient in warming across the maritime continent is correlated with Australian rainfall with coefficient r of - 0.8. The component of equatorial warming orthogonal to this index, denoted EQN, has strong links to temperature and rainfall in Africa and the Americas. It is proposed that these indices and their associated patterns might be termed "modes of climate change". This is supported by an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions for the ensemble of standardized fields. Can such indices be used to help constrain projections? The relative similarity of the PID and EQN values of change, from models that have more skilful simulation of the present climate tropical pressure fields, provides a basis for this.

Formation of ionospheric irregularities over Southeast Asia during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spogli, Luca; Cesaroni, Claudio; Di Mauro, Domenico; Pezzopane, Michael; Alfonsi, Lucilla; Musicò, Elvira; Povero, Gabriella; Pini, Marco; Dovis, Fabio; Romero, Rodrigo; Linty, Nicola; Abadi, Prayitno; Nuraeni, Fitri; Husin, Asnawi; Le Huy, Minh; Lan, Tran Thi; La, The Vinh; Pillat, Valdir Gil; Floury, Nicolas

2016-12-01

We investigate the geospace response to the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm leveraging on instruments spread over Southeast Asia (SEA), covering a wide longitudinal sector of the low-latitude ionosphere. A regional characterization of the storm is provided, identifying the peculiarities of ionospheric irregularity formation. The novelties of this work are the characterization in a broad longitudinal range and the methodology relying on the integration of data acquired by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, magnetometers, ionosondes, and Swarm satellites. This work is a legacy of the project EquatoRial Ionosphere Characterization in Asia (ERICA). ERICA aimed to capture the features of both crests of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) and trough (EIT) by means of a dedicated measurement campaign. The campaign lasted from March to October 2015 and was able to observe the ionospheric variability causing effects on radio systems, GNSS in particular. The multiinstrumental and multiparametric observations of the region enabled an in-depth investigation of the response to the largest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle in a region scarcely reported in literature. Our work discusses the comparison between northern and southern crests of the EIA in the SEA region. The observations recorded positive and negative ionospheric storms, spread F conditions, scintillation enhancement and inhibition, and total electron content variability. The ancillary information on the local magnetic field highlights the variety of ionospheric perturbations during the different storm phases. The combined use of ionospheric bottomside, topside, and integrated information points out how the storm affects the F layer altitude and the consequent enhancement/suppression of scintillations.

An Application of spectral analysis method investigating the anomalous change in the QBO for period of 1997 to 2017, especially at 50 hPa related to the ozone’s concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermawan, Eddy

2018-05-01

This study is mainly concerned an application of the spectral tehnique analysis in investigating the anomalous change of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) over the equatorial region, especially over the Singapore related to the ozone’s concentration at about 50 hPa. This is important since we need to know that characteristics of ozone concentration at that layer due to the ozone depletion caused by the effect of the global warming. Please note here, ozone is already stated as one of the most important parameter needed to protect our earth from Ultra Violet (UV) light. No much study of ozone’s protection, especially near the equatorial region. In this preliminary results, we show the characteristics of QBO taken from the Singapore ‘s QBO data analysis. The QBO has represented as the downward propagating of zonal wind variation. Then, we investigate impact of QBO on the Ozone’s Concentration anomaly at stratospheric layer. We found the pre-dominant peak oscillation of QBO at around 28 month. We found also an a good agreement (pattern) between QBO and Ozone’s Concentration anomaly, especially at 50 hPa layer with a correlation coefficien of about 0.5. By this formula, we can estimate the next behavior of ozone’s concentration anomaly taken from the QBO index that updated regularly.

Differences in Vertical Structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Associated With the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendon, Harry H.; Abhik, S.

2018-05-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is more active and propagates eastward farther into the western Pacific during the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using atmospheric reanalyses for 1980-2012, we show that the MJO-induced upper tropospheric positive temperature anomaly and overriding cold cap anomaly are stronger and more in-phase with the equatorial MJO-convective anomaly during the easterly phase of the QBO. These temperature anomalies combine to destabilize the upper troposphere more in-phase with MJO convection, thus acting to promote stronger MJO convection during the easterly phase of the QBO especially eastward of the Maritime Continent. This enhanced destabilization is promoted by the negative temperature anomaly at the tropopause resulting from the QBO during its easterly phase. These findings can account for the enhanced strength and farther eastward propagation of the MJO during the easterly phase of the QBO, but await confirmation by theoretical and modeling studies that can isolate these effects.

Pacific decadal variability in the view of linear equatorial wave theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J. B.; Cane, M. A.

2006-12-01

It has recently been proposed, within the framework of the linear shallow water equations, that tropical Pacific decadal variability can be accounted for by basin modes with eigenperiods of 10 to 20 years, amplifying a mid- latitude wind forcing with an essentially white spectrum (Cessi and Louazel 2001; Liu 2003). We question this idea here, using a different formalism of linear equatorial wave theory. We compute the Green's function for the wind forced response of a linear equatorial shallow water ocean, and use the results of Cane and Moore (1981) to obtain a compact, closed form expression for the motion of the equatorial thermocline, which applies to all frequencies lower than seasonal. At very low frequencies (decadal timescales), we recover the planetary geostrophic solution used by Cessi and Louazel (2001), as well as the equatorial wave solution of Liu (2003), and give a formal explanation for this convergence. Using this more general solution to explore more realistic wind forcings, we come to a different interpretation of the results. We find that the equatorial thermocline is inherently more sensitive to local than to remote wind forcing, and that planetary Rossby modes only weakly alter the spectral characteristics of the response. Tropical winds are able to generate a strong equatorial response with periods of 10 to 20 years, while midlatitude winds can only do so for periods longer than about 50 years. Since the decadal pattern of observed winds shows similar amplitude for tropical and midlatitude winds, we conclude that the latter are unlikely to be responsible for the observed decadal tropical Pacific SST variability. References : Cane, M. A., and Moore, D. W., 1981: A note on low-frequency equatorial basin modes. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11(11), 1578 1584. Cessi, P., and Louazel, S., 2001: Decadal oceanic response to stochastic wind forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 3020 3029. Liu, Z., 2003: Tropical ocean decadal variability and resonance of planetary wave basin modes. J. Clim., 16(18), 1539 1550.

The Angola Current and its seasonal variability as observed at 11°S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopte, Robert; Brandt, Peter; Dengler, Marcus; Claus, Martin; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2016-04-01

The eastern boundary circulation off the coast of Angola has been described only sparsely to date. The region off Angola, which connects the equatorial Atlantic and the Angola-Benguela upwelling regime, is of particular interest to understand the relative importance of transient equatorial versus local forcing of the observed variability in the coastal upwelling region. For the first time multi-year velocity observations of the Angola Current at 11°S are available. From July 2013 to November 2015 a bottom shield equipped with an ADCP had been deployed at 500m water depth, accompanied by a mooring sitting on the 1200m-isobath with an ADCP being installed at 500m depth. Both upward-looking instruments measured the current speed up to about 50m below the sea surface. During the deployment period the Angola Current was characterized by a weak southward mean flow of 5-8 cm/s at 50m depth (slightly stronger at the in-shore mooring position), with the southward current penetrating down to about 200m depth. The alongshore velocity component reveals a pronounced seasonal variability. It is dominated by 120-day, semi-annual, and annual oscillations with distinct baroclinic structures. Here we apply a reduced gravity model of the tropical Atlantic for the first five baroclinic modes forced with interannually varying wind stress to investigate the seasonal variability along the equatorial and coastal waveguides. In the equatorial Atlantic the 120-day, semi-annual, and annual oscillations are associated with resonant basin modes of the 1st, 2nd, and 4th baroclinic mode, respectively. These basin modes are composed of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves as well as coastally trapped waves. The reduced gravity model is further used to study the respective role of the remote equatorial forcing, more specifically the influence of equatorial basin modes via coastally trapped waves, and the local forcing for the observed seasonal variability and associated baroclinic structure of the Angola Current at 11°S.

Tropical teleconnections via the ocean and atmosphere induced by Southern Ocean deep convective events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gunn, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

The current generation (CMIP5) of Earth System Models (ESMs) shows a huge variability in their ability to represent Southern Ocean (SO) deep-ocean convection and Antarctic Bottom Water, with a preference for open-sea convection in the Weddell and Ross gyres. A long control simulation in a coarse 3o resolution ESM (the GFDL CM2Mc model) shows a highly regular multi-decadal oscillation between periods of SO open sea convection and non-convective periods. This process also happens naturally, with different frequencies and durations of convection across most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al, 2014). Here we assess the impact of SO deep convection and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the tropical atmosphere and ocean via teleconnections, with a focus on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We combine analysis of our low-resolution coupled model with inter-model analysis across historical CMIP5 simulations. SST cooling south of 60S during non-convective decades triggers a stronger, northward shifted SH Hadley cell, which results in intensified northward cross-equatorial moist heat transport and a poleward shift in the ITCZ. Resulting correlations between the cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport and ITCZ location are in good agreement with recent theories (e.g. Frierson et al. 2013; Donohoe et al. 2014). Lagged correlations between a SO convective index and cross-equatorial heat transports (in the atmosphere and ocean), as well as various tropical (and ENSO) climate indices are analyzed. In the ocean realm, we find that non-convective decades result in weaker AABW formation and weaker ACC but stronger Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation, likely as a result of stronger SO westerlies (more positive SAM). The signals of AABW and AAIW are seen in the tropics on short timescales of years to decades in the temperature, heat storage and heat transport anomalies and also in deep and intermediate ocean oxygen. Most of the current ESMs with frequent deep-sea convection events in the control state predict a permanent shut down of this convection under climate change in the 21st century. We propose that the preindustrial convective state of the Southern Ocean and its evolution under climate warming will have implications for the SO-tropical teleconnections.

Three types of Indian Ocean Basin modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Feiyan; Liu, Qinyu; Yang, Jianling; Fan, Lei

2017-04-01

The persistence of the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) from March to August is important for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon. Based on the observational data and the pre-industrial control run outputs of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), the IOBM is categorized into three types: the first type can persist until August; the second type transforms from the positive (negative) IOBM into the negative (positive) Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM), accompanied by the El Niño-to-La Niña (La Niña-to-El Niño) transition in the boreal summer; the third type transforms from the positive (negative) IOBM into the positive (negative) IODM in early summer. It is discovered that aside from the influence of anomalous Walker Circulation resulted from the phase transition of ENSO, the persistence of Australia high anomaly (AHA) over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the west of Australia from March to May is favorable for the positive (negative) IOBM transformation into the positive (negative) IODM in the boreal summer. The stronger equatorially asymmetric sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the boreal spring are the main mechanism for the persistence of IOBM, because the asymmetric atmospheric responses to the stronger equatorially asymmetric SSTAs in the TIO confine the AHA to the east of Australia from May to August. This result indicates a possibility of predicting summer atmospheric circulation based on the equatorial symmetry of SSTAs in the TIO in spring.

A study of equatorial wave characteristics using rockets, balloons, lidar and radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasi, M. N.; Krishna Murthy, B. V.; Ramkumar, Geetha; Satheesan, K.; Parameswaran, K.; Rajeev, K.; Sunilkumar, S. V.; Nair, Prabha R.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Bhavanikumar, Y.; Raghunath, K.; Jain, A. R.; Rao, P. B.; Krishnaiah, M.; Prabhakaran Nayars, S. R.; Revathy, K.; Devanarayanan, S.

2003-09-01

A co-ordmated experimental campaign was conducted for 40 consecutive days from 21 February to 01 April 2000 using RH-200 rockets, balloons, Rayleigh lidar and MST radar, with the objective of delineating the equatorial waves and estimating momentum fluxes associated with them. Winds and temperatures in the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere over two low latitude stations Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and SHAR (13.7°N, 80.2°E) were measured and were used for the study of equatorial waves and their interactions with the background mean flow in various atmospheric regions. The study shows the occurrence of a strong stratospheric cooling (˜25 K) anomaly along with a zonal wind anomaly and this low-latitude event appears to be linked to high-latitude stratospheric warming event and followed by subsequent generation of short period (˜5 days) oscillations lasting for a few cycles in the stratosphere. Slow and fast Kelvin waves and RG wave (˜-17-day and ˜7.2-day and ˜4.2-day periods respectively) have been identified. The mean flow acceleration produced by the divergence of the momentum flux due to the observed Kelvin waves in the 35-60 km height region were compared with the zonal flow accelerations computed from the observed zonal winds. Contribution by the slow and fast Kelvin waves was found to be only ˜25 % of the observed acceleration during the evolution of the westerly phase of the semi-annual oscillation.

On observation of local strong heterogeneity in the Earth's inner core below southeastern Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasnoshchekov, D. N.; Kaazik, P. B.; Ovtchinnikov, V. M.

2016-12-01

The dimensions and nature of multi-scale structural heterogeneities in the Earth's inner core (IC) provide important constraints on its mineralogy and formation history. Teleseismic body waves with turn points close to the inner core boundary (ICB) provide a unique tool for imaging the fine structure of the upper IC. In this study, we invoke differential travel times and amplitudes of PKPBC and PKPDF waveforms observed in crossing polar and equatorial paths to provide more constraints on the heterogeneity previously located in the quasi-eastern hemisphere of the IC (Kaazik et al., 2015; Krasnoshchekov et al., 2016). A more refined analysis of quasi-polar PKPBC/PKPDF amplitude ratios measured within the heterogeneity indicates that seismic attenuation is both frequency and depth dependent, and its relatively low Q-factor at 1 Hz of approximately 118 tends to grow with depth. Outside the heterogeneity, no pronounced polar-equatorial differences are observed; the estimated Q factor is about twice as large and not directionally dependent. We also analyse new differential travel times of rays that enable sampling of the anomaly at greater depths. The analysis exhibits the polar - equatorial contrasts observed in the heterogeneity terminate at approximately 520 km below the ICB, which we interpret to be its bottom. The earlier interpretation of the heterogeneity in terms of strong anisotropic volume amidst the almost isotropic eastern hemisphere of the IC can be retained, and the lower bound of anisotropy strength within the anomaly is determined to be 2%.

Main Ionospheric Trough and Equatorial Ionization Anomaly During Substorms With the Different UT Onset Moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimenko, M. V.; Klimenko, V. V.; Bryukhanov, V. V.

2007-05-01

In the given work the numerical calculation results of ionospheric effects of four modeling substorms which have begun in 00, 06, 12 and 18 UT are presented. Calculations are executed on the basis of Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP), developed in WD IZMIRAN, added by the new block of calculation of electric fields in the ionosphere of the Earth for vernal equinox conditions in the minimum of solar activity. In calculations we considered superposition of magnetospheric convection electric field (at set potential differences through polar caps and field aligned currents of the second zone with taking into account of particle precipitation) and dynamo field generated by thermospheric winds without taking into account the tides. It is shown, that in the given statement of problem the substorms cause strong positive disturbances in F-region of ionosphere in night sector. Negative disturbances are much less and arise, mainly, at night in the middle and low latitudes. During substorms longitudinal extent of main ionospheric trough increases. The substorm beginning in 18 UT, causes negative disturbances in high latitudes except for a southern polar cap. Besides there is "stratification" of the main ionospheric trough. As a result in southern hemisphere the additional high-latitude trough which is absent in quiet conditions is formed. "Stratification" of the main ionospheric trough occurs in northern hemisphere at 6 hours after the beginning of the substorm. These "stratifications" are consequence non-stationary magnetospheric convection. Distinction between these events consists that "stratification" in a southern hemisphere occurs in active phase of substorm, and in northern hemisphere in recovery phase. During a substorm beginning in 00 UT, foF2 increases in all northern polar cap. Positive disturbances of foF2 in the equatorial anomaly region cause all presented substorms, except for a substorm beginning in 18 UT. This substorm causes small negative disturbances in the equatorial anomaly region in the Indian longitudinal sector.

Equatorial temperature anomaly during solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhasini, R.; Raghavarao, R.; Mayr, H. G.; Hoegy, W. R.; Wharton, L. E.

2001-11-01

We show evidence for the occurrence of the equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) during solar minimum by analyzing the temperature and total ion density data from the Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment (NATE) and the Cylindrical Electrostatic Probe (CEP), respectively, on board the Atmospheric Explorer-E satellite. The chosen data refer to a height of ~254 km in the African and Asian longitude sector (340.1°E-200°E) during a summer season in the Southern Hemisphere. As during the solar maximum period, the spatial characteristics of the ETA are similar to those of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). A minimum in the gas temperature is collocated with the minimum in the ion density at the dip equator, and a temperature maximum on the south side of the equator is collocated with the density maximum of the EIA. The daytime behavior of ETA formation is about the same as that of EIA as both of them are clearly present at around 1300 and 1400 local solar time (LST) only. At 1400 LST the difference between the temperatures at the crest and the trough (ETA strength) reaches a maximum value of about 100°K which is ~14% of the temperature at the trough. Like the EIA, the ETA also suddenly disappears after 1400 LST. Thus the EIA appears to be a prerequisite for the ETA formation. During the premidnight time (2200 LST), however, while the EIA is nonexistent, the temperature distribution forms a pattern opposite to that at 1400 LST in the daytime. It shows a maximum around the dip equator and a broad minimum at the daytime crest region where the postsunset cooling also is faster and occurs earlier than at the dip equator. This nighttime maximum appears to be related to the signature of the midnight temperature maximum (MTM). Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) model temperatures, in general, are higher than the observed average temperatures for the summer season and in particular for the region around the dip equator around noon hours.

Singapore Haze in June 2013: Consequences of Land-Use Change, Fires, and Anomalous Meteorology for Air Quality in Equatorial Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koplitz, S.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Kim, P. S.; DeFries, R. S.; Marlier, M. E.; Schwartz, J.; Buonocore, J.; Myers, S. S.

2014-12-01

Much of Equatorial Asia is currently undergoing extensive burning from agricultural fires and rapid land-use conversion to oil palm plantations, with substantial consequences for air quality and health. In June 2013, Singapore experienced severe smoke levels, with surface particulate matter concentrations greater than ten times average. Unlike past haze events in Singapore (e.g. September 1997 and October 2006), the June 2013 pollution event occurred during El Nino-neutral conditions. Using a combination of observations and chemical transport modeling, we examine relationships between sea surface temperatures, wind fields, fire patterns, and aerosol optical depth during the June 2013 haze event. We find reasonable agreement between satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the MODIS and MISR instruments and in-situ measurements from the AERONET stations across Equatorial Asia for 2005-2010 (MODIS R2 = 0.39, bias = -1.6%; MISR R2 = 0.27, bias = -42%). However, AOD observations fail to capture the Singapore pollution event of June 2013. Simulations with the GEOS-Chem model suggest that anomalously high dust concentrations during June 2013 may have impaired the ability of MODIS to monitor the haze over Singapore. In contrast, we show that the OMI Aerosol Index can effectively capture these smoke events and may be used to monitor future haze episodes in Equatorial Asia. We find that the June 2013 haze in Singapore may be attributed to anomalously strong westerlies carrying smoke from Riau Province in Indonesia. These westerlies, 5 m s-1 faster than the 2005-2010 mean June winds, are consistent with the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) crossing the Maritime Continent at that time. These westerlies may have been further enhanced by a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an east-west gradient in sea surface temperature anomalies across the Indian Ocean, with cold sea surface temperature anomalies (-3 C°) off the Arabian coast and warm anomalies (+2 C°) in the East. These conditions appear to provide an important meteorological pathway by which land-use change fires in Indonesia may affect the health of large populations. Our work suggests that this pathway should be taken into account in the development of strategies to curb fire-related air pollution and health effects in Indonesia.

Apollo-Soyuz light-flash observations.

PubMed

Budinger, T F; Tobias, C A; Huesman, R H; Upham, F T; Wieskamp, T F; Hoffman, R A

1977-01-01

While dark adapted, two Apollo-Soyuz astronauts saw eighty-two light flash events during a complete 51 degrees orbit which passed near the north magnetic pole and through the South Atlantic Anomaly. The frequency of events at the polar parts of the orbit is 25 times that noted in equatorial latitudes and no increased frequency was noted in the South Atlantic Anomaly at the 225-km altitude. The expected flux of heavy particles at the northern and southern points is 1-2 min-1 per eye, and the efficiency for seeing HZE particles which were below the Cerenkov threshold is 50%.

Modulation of ENSO evolution by strong tropical volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tao; Guo, Dong; Gao, Yongqi; Wang, Huijun; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Yali; Miao, Jiapeng; Hu, Yongyun

2017-11-01

The simulated responses of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to volcanic forcings are controversial, and some mechanisms of these responses are not clear. We investigate the impacts of volcanic forcing on the ENSO using a long-term simulation covering 1400-1999 as simulated by the Bergen Climate Model (BCM) and a group of simulations performed with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4) and the BCM's ocean component Miami Isopycanic Coordinated Ocean Model (MICOM). The analysis of the long-term BCM simulation indicates that ENSO has a negative-positive-negative response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs), which corresponds to the different stages of volcanic forcing. In the initial forcing stage, a brief and weak La Niña-like response is caused by the cooling along the west coast of the South American continent and associated enhancement of the trade winds. In the peak forcing stage, westerly wind anomalies are excited by both reduced east-west sea level pressure gradients and weakened and equatorward shifted tropical convergence zones. These westerly wind anomalies extend to the equatorial eastern Pacific, leading to an El Niño-like response. At the same time, easterly wind anomalies west of 120°E and strong cooling effects can promote a discharged thermocline state and excite an upwelling Kelvin wave in the western Pacific. In the declining forcing stage, forced by the recovered trade winds, the upwelling Kelvin wave propagates eastward and reaches the equatorial eastern Pacific. Through the Bjerknes feedback, a strong and temporally extended La Niña-like response forms. Additional CAM4 simulations suggest a more important role of the surface cooling over the Maritime Continent and surrounding ocean in shaping the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and the easterly wind anomalies west of 120° E, which are key to causing the El Niño-like responses and subsequent La Niña-like responses, respectively. The MICOM sensitivity simulations confirm that SVE-induced tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies play a dominant role in regulating post-eruption ENSO evolution in the observation, while the influences of anomalous buoyance forcing (heat and freshwater fluxes) are secondary. Therefore, SVEs play an important role in modulating the ENSO evolution. Compared with proxy data, the simulated El Niño-like responses and subsequent La Niña-like responses are consistent with the reconstructed ENSO responses to SVEs. However, the simulated initial brief La Niña-like response, which is reproduced by most models, is seen in only one proxy dataset and is absent in most of the reconstructed ENSOs and those observed. The reason for this model-data mismatch will require further investigation.

The modeled latitudinal distribution of the ozone quasi-biennial oscillation using observed equatorial winds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gray, L.J.; Ruth, S.

1993-04-15

A simulation of precise years of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is achieved in a two-dimensional model by relaxing the modeled equatorial winds in the lower stratosphere toward radiosonde observations. The model has been run for the period 1971-90. A QBO signal in column ozone is produced in the model that agrees reasonably well with observational data from the BUV, TOMS, and SAGE II satellite datasets. The model results confirm previous indications of the importance of the interaction of the QBO with the annual cycle in the determination of the subtropical ozone anomaly. The low-frequency modulation of the subtropical ozone anomalymore » is now particularly clear. The low-frequency modulation of the subtropical ozone anomaly in the model arises as a result of the interaction of the QBO with the annual cycle in the vertical advection by the Hadley circulation. The possibility of a further, similar modulation arising from the interaction of the equatorial wind QBO and the annual cycle in midlatitude eddy activity is discussed, with particular emphasis on the implications for the eddy transfer of ozone to high latitudes and on the ability to predict the severity of the Antarctic ozone hole. A link is proposed between the QBO signal in the severity of the Antarctic ozone hole and the amount of ozone observed in the subtropical/midlatitude springtime maximum in the Southern Hemisphere. On the basis of this relationship, the reliability of the model as a predictor of the severity of the ozone hole is explored. A conclusion of the study is that a reliable predictor of the severity of the ozone hole must take into account the timing of the descent of the equatorial wind QBO at the equator with respect to the annual cycle and that the use, as in previous studies, of a single parameter, such as the sign of the 50-mb equatorial wind, will not be entirely reliable because it cannot do this. 31 refs., 11 figs.« less

Emerging role of Indian ocean on Indian northeast monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Ramesh Kumar

2013-07-01

This study examines the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of Indian north-east monsoon rainfall (NEMR). The IAV of NEMR is associated with the warm SST anomaly over east Bay-of-Bengal (BoB) (88.5oE-98.5oE; 8.5oN-15.5oN) and cool SST anomaly over east equatorial Indian Ocean (80.5oE-103.5oE; 6.5oS-3.5oN). The gradient of SST between these boxes (i.e. northern box minus southern box) shows strong and robust association with the Indian NEMR variability in the recent decades. For establishing the teleconnections, SST, mean sea level pressure, North Indian Ocean tropical storm track, and circulation data have been used. The study reveals that during the positive SST gradient years, the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shifts northwards over the East Indian Ocean. The tropical depressions, storms and cyclones formed in the North Indian Ocean moves more zonally and strike the southern peninsular India and hence excess NEMR. While, during the negative SST gradient years, the ITCZ shifts southwards over the Indian Ocean. The tropical depressions, storms and cyclones formed in the North Indian Ocean moves more northwestward direction and after crossing 15oN latitude re-curve to north-east direction towards head BoB and misses southern peninsular India and hence, deficient NEMR.

Solar cycle in current reanalyses: (non)linear attribution study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

2014-12-01

This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11 year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks) besides the traditional linear approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis datasets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how this type of data resolves especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the lower and upper stratosphere were found to be sufficiently robust and in qualitative agreement with previous observational studies. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Consequently the results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all datasets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal dependence of the solar response was also discussed, mainly as a source of dynamical causalities in the wave propagation characteristics in the zonal wind and the induced meridional circulation in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer Dobson circulation was reviewed together with discussion of polar vortex stability.

The 11-year solar cycle in current reanalyses: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

2015-06-01

This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11-year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (support vector regression, neural networks) besides the multiple linear regression approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis data sets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how these types of data resolve especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the tropical stratosphere were found to be in qualitative agreement with previous attribution studies, although the agreement with observational results was incomplete, especially for JRA-55. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone data sets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. The results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all data sets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. The seasonal evolution of the solar response was also discussed in terms of dynamical causalities in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation at solar maxima was reviewed together with a discussion of polar vortex behaviour.

An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

1999-01-01

Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical processes at the ocean/atmosphere interface that create anomaly gradients in the meridional plane in a way which tends to alter the north-south movement of the seasonal cycle. This appears to be consistent with the intrinsic non-dipole character of the tropical Atlantic surface variability at the interannual time step and over the recent period, but produces abnormal amplitude and/or delayed excursions of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Connections with continental rainfall are approached through three (NCEP/NCAR and observed) rainfall indexes over the Nordeste region in Brazil, and the Guinea and Sahel zones in West Africa. These indices appear to be significantly linked to the SST component of the coupled modes only when the two Atlantic modes+the ENSO-like Nino3 index are taken into account in the regressions. This suggests that thermal forcing of continental rainfall is particularly sensitive to the linear combinations of some basic SST patterns, in particular to those that create meridional thermal gradients. The first mode in the Atlantic is associated with transequatorial pressure, moist static energy and precipitable water anomaly patterns which can explain abnormal location of the ITCZ particularly in northern winter, and hence rainfall variations in Nordeste. The second mode is more associated with in-phase variations of the same variables near the southern edge of the ITCZ, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea during the northern spring and winter. It is primarily linked to the amplitude and annual phase of the ITCZ excursions and thus to rainfall variations in Guinea. Connections with Sahel rainfall are less clear due to the difficulty for the model to correctly capture interannual variability over that region but the second Atlantic mode and the ENSO-like Pacific variability are clearly involved in the Sahel climate interannual fluctuations: anomalous dry (wet) situations tend to occur when warmer (cooler) waters are present in the eastern Pacific and the gulf of Guinea in northern summer which contribute to create a northward (southward) transequatorial anomaly gradient in sea level pressure over West Africa.

Total electron content anomalies associated with global VEI4 + volcanic eruptions during 2002-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wang; Guo, Jinyun; Yue, Jianping; Shen, Yi; Yang, Yang

2016-10-01

In previous studies, little attention has been paid to the total electron content (TEC) anomalies preceding the volcanic eruption. We analyze the coupling relationship between volcanic eruption and TEC anomalies, and discuss the spatial distribution of TEC anomalies associated with volcanic geographical location. We utilize the global ionosphere map (GIM) data from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) to analyze TEC variations before the global volcanic eruptions indicated by VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) 4 + from 2002 to 2015 with the sliding interquartile range method. The results indicate the occurrence rate of TEC anomalies before great volcanic eruptions is related with the volcanic type and geographical position. The occurrence rate of TEC anomalies before stratovolcano and caldera eruptions is higher than that before shield and pyroclastic shield eruptions, and the occurrence rate of TEC anomalies has a descending trend from low latitudes to high latitudes. The TEC anomalies before the volcanic eruptions in low-mid latitudes are within the volcanic affected areas, but do not coincide with the volcanic foci. The corresponding TEC anomalies could be observed in the conjugated region, and all the TEC anomalies in the volcanic affected areas are usually close to bounds of equatorial anomaly zones. However, the TEC anomalies preceding these eruptions in high latitudes usually surround the volcano, and no TEC anomalies appear in the conjugated region. These conclusions have potential applications to the prediction of great volcanic eruptions in the future.

Understanding the Longitudinal Variability of Equatorial Electrodynamics using integrated Ground- and Space-based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yizengaw, E.; Moldwin, M.; Zesta, E.

2015-12-01

The currently funded African Meridian B-Field Education and Research (AMBER) magnetometer array comprises more than thirteen magnetometers stationed globally in the vicinity of geomagnetic equator. One of the main objectives of AMBER network is to understand the longitudinal variability of equatorial electrodynamics as function of local time, magnetic activity, and season. While providing complete meridian observation in the region and filling the largest land-based gap in global magnetometer coverage, the AMBER array addresses two fundamental areas of space physics: first, the processes governing electrodynamics of the equatorial ionosphere as a function of latitude (or L-shell), local time, longitude, magnetic activity, and season, and second, ULF pulsation strength at low/mid-latitude regions and its connection with equatorial electrojet and density fluctuation. The global AMBER network can also be used to augment observations from space-based instruments, such us the triplet SWARM mission and the upcoming ICON missions. Thus, in coordination with space-based and other ground-based observations, the AMBER magnetometer network provides a great opportunity to understand the electrodynamics that governs equatorial ionosphere motions. In this paper we present the longitudinal variability of the equatorial electrodynamics using the combination of instruments onboard SWARM and C/NOFS satellites and ground-based AMBER network. Both ground- and pace-based observations show stronger dayside and evening sector equatorial electrodynamics in the American and Asian sectors compared to the African sector. On the other hand, the African sector is home to stronger and year-round ionospheric bubbles/irregularities compared to the American and Asian sectors. This raises the question if the evening sector equatorial electrodynamics (vertical drift), which is believed to be the main cause for the enhancement of Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability growth rate, is stronger in the American sector and weaker in the African sector - why are the occurrence and amplitude of equatorial irregularities stronger in the African sector?

Interpreting SBUV Smoothing Errors: an Example Using the Quasi-biennial Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kramarova, N. A.; Bhartia, Pawan K.; Frith, S. M.; McPeters, R. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

2013-01-01

The Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) observing system consists of a series of instruments that have been measuring both total ozone and the ozone profile since 1970. SBUV measures the profile in the upper stratosphere with a resolution that is adequate to resolve most of the important features of that region. In the lower stratosphere the limited vertical resolution of the SBUV system means that there are components of the profile variability that SBUV cannot measure. The smoothing error, as defined in the optimal estimation retrieval method, describes the components of the profile variability that the SBUV observing system cannot measure. In this paper we provide a simple visual interpretation of the SBUV smoothing error by comparing SBUV ozone anomalies in the lower tropical stratosphere associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to anomalies obtained from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). We describe a methodology for estimating the SBUV smoothing error for monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles. We construct covariance matrices that describe the statistics of the inter-annual ozone variability using a 6 yr record of Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. We find that the smoothing error is of the order of 1percent between 10 and 1 hPa, increasing up to 15-20 percent in the troposphere and up to 5 percent in the mesosphere. The smoothing error for total ozone columns is small, mostly less than 0.5 percent. We demonstrate that by merging the partial ozone columns from several layers in the lower stratosphere/troposphere into one thick layer, we can minimize the smoothing error. We recommend using the following layer combinations to reduce the smoothing error to about 1 percent: surface to 25 hPa (16 hPa) outside (inside) of the narrow equatorial zone 20 S-20 N.

Evaluation of NeQuick as a model to characterize the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly over Africa using data ingestion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migoya-Orué, Y.; Folarin-Olufunmilayo, O.; Radicella, S.; Alazo-Cuartas, K.; Rabiu, A. B.

2017-10-01

Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) of vertical Total Electron Content (TEC) are utilized in an ingestion approach to generate a 3D specification of the ionosphere over the African Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) by using NeQuick model. The effectiveness of the GIM to specify the ionosphere over the African region has been assessed during the IONAF, a project under the ESA's Alcantara Initiative. A series of analysis that takes into account the day-to-day variability seen by the GIM and by specific receivers' ground stations have shown that the vertical TEC derived from the GIMs (CODE) presents a systematic but not necessarily constant positive offset with respect to the corresponding data obtained from individual stations. These offsets have been taken into account in the ingestion process. Therefore, as option, an 'adjustment' to the vertical TEC from CODE has been introduced, to see if it has any effect in modeling the ionosphere in the region of interest. One of the outputs of the ingestion process is a series of maps of foF2 over the African EIA. A validation with foF2 values from the only ionosonde station available in that period, Ilorin, for some months of the year 2010 has been performed. Another comparison with the slant TEC obtained in the 3D specification using GNSS data from the station bjco, Benin, in a given day has been done. Results show that the mismodelings are reduced when the positive offset is taken out from the maps. The paper concludes with an investigation of the effects of the NeQuick bottomside thickness parameter (B2bot) mismodeling on the electron density retrieval. A parameterization of experimental B2bot as a function of time is used to explore the possibility of reducing the mismodeling when foF2 is retrieved from the 3D specification of the ionosphere obtained through the data ingestion process.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4°C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: A multi-proxy perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4??C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective.

PubMed

Dowsett, Harry J; Robinson, Marci M

2009-01-13

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4 degrees C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Dynamical excitation of the tropical Pacific Ocean and ENSO variability by Little Ice Age cooling.

PubMed

Rustic, Gerald T; Koutavas, Athanasios; Marchitto, Thomas M; Linsley, Braddock K

2015-12-18

Tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) are poorly characterized due to a lack of evidence from the eastern equatorial Pacific. We reconstructed sea surface temperature, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, and the tropical Pacific zonal gradient for the past millennium from Galápagos ocean sediments. We document a mid-millennium shift (MMS) in ocean-atmosphere circulation around 1500-1650 CE, from a state with dampened ENSO and strong zonal gradient to one with amplified ENSO and weak gradient. The MMS coincided with the deepest LIA cooling and was probably caused by a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. The peak of the MCA (900-1150 CE) was a warm period in the eastern Pacific, contradicting the paradigm of a persistent La Niña pattern. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Precursory enhancement of EIA in the morning sector: Contribution from mid-latitude large earthquakes in the north-east Asian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Kwangsun; Oyama, Koh-Ichiro; Bankov, Ludmil; Chen, Chia-Hung; Devi, Minakshi; Liu, Huixin; Liu, Jann-Yenq

2016-01-01

To investigate whether the link between seismic activity and EIA (equatorial ionization anomaly) enhancement is valid for mid-latitude seismic activity, DEMETER observations around seven large earthquakes in the north-east Asian region were fully analyzed (M ⩾ 6.8). In addition, statistical analysis was performed for 35 large earthquakes (M ⩾ 6.0) that occurred during the DEMETER observation period. The results suggest that mid-latitude earthquakes do contribute to EIA enhancement, represented as normalized equatorial Ne , and that ionospheric change precedes seismic events, as has been reported in previous studies. According to statistical studies, the normalized equatorial density enhancement is sensitive and proportional to both the magnitude and the hypocenter depth of an earthquake. The mechanisms that can explain the contribution of mid-latitude seismic activity to EIA variation are briefly discussed based on current explanations of the geochemical and ionospheric processes involved in lithosphere-ionosphere interaction.

Influence of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole on sea level variability in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreenivas, P.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Prasad, K. V. S. R.

2012-01-01

Zonally oscillating seasonal equatorial winds generate pairs of upwelling and downwelling Kelvin waves in the Equatorial Indian Ocean, which then advance in to the coastal Bay of Bengal. The first (second) equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave has its origin in the western (eastern) basin, whereas the downwelling Kelvin waves originate in the central basin. The observed interannual variability of these Kelvin waves is highly governed by the associated zonal wind changes in the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during the anomalous years. The second downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin wave is absent (weak) during El Niño (La Niña) years, whereas the second upwelling Kelvin wave strengthened during El Niño years both in the equatorial Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal. The large scale off equatorial Rossby waves occasionally feedback the equatorial Kelvin waves, which then strengthen the Bay of Bengal coastal Kelvin waves. The coastal Kelvin waves and the associated radiated Rossby waves from east play a dominant role in the mesoscale eddy generation in Bay of Bengal. The analysis of cyclogenesis characteristics in the bay over the past 65 years revealed that the active (suppressed) phases of cyclogenesis are coinciding with the downwelling (upwelling) planetary waves which influence the cyclone heat potential by altering the thermocline depth.

An Enduring Rapidly Moving Storm as a Guide to Saturn's Equatorial Jet's Complex Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Garcia-Melendo, E.; Perez-Hoyos, S.; Hueso, R.; Wong, M. H.; Simon, A.; Sanz-Requena, J. F.; Antunano, A.; Barrado-Izagirre, N.; Garate-Lopez, I.;

On the importance of Sri Lanka for sea-level variability along the west coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suresh, I.; Vialard, J.; Izumo, T.; Lengaigne, M.; Han, W.; McCreary, J. P., Jr.; Pillathu Moolayil, M.

2015-12-01

Earlier studies have illustrated the strong influence of remote forcing from the equator and the Bay of Bengal on the sea-level variability off the west coast of India, especially at the seasonal timescale. More recently, Suresh et al. [2013] demonstrated with a simple, linear, continuously-stratified (LCS) model that the equatorial zonal winds contribute to more than 60% of intraseasonal sea-level variability along the Indian west coast. In the present study, we quantify the contributions from various processes to the sea-level variability along the west coast of India at different timescales with the help of a LCS model through both idealized and realistic sensitivity experiments. We demonstrate that remote forcing dominates the sea-level variability along the west coast of India at intraseasonal to interannual timescales. Sri Lanka and the southern tip of India play an important role on Indian west coast sea-level variability at all timescales for two reasons: First, the geometry of the coast favors a strong alongshore wind-stress forcing of coastal Kelvin waves across timescales there. Second, Sri Lanka interacts with low-order meridional mode equatorial Rossby waves forced by equatorial winds or southern Bay of Bengal wind- stress curl. This interaction of coastal waveguide with equatorial waveguide creates a new pathway for the equatorial signals to arrive at the west coast of India, alternative to the "classical" coastal waveguide around the rim of the Bay of Bengal. Reference: Suresh, I., J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, W. Han, J. McCreary, F. Durand, and P. M. Muraleedharan (2013), Origins of wind-driven intraseasonal sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean coastal waveguide, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5740-5744, doi:10.1002/2013GL058312.

Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

2018-05-01

This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain, but a weaker ENSO/IOD signal over the southern part of the region. This signal is consistent and robust in all global and regional model simulations. The projected increase in OND rainfall over the eastern horn of Africa might be linked with the mean changes in SST over Indian and Pacific Ocean basins and the associated Walker circulations.

Apollo-Soyuz light-flash observations. [ionizing radiation effects measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Budinger, T. F.; Tobias, C. A.; Huesman, R. H.; Upham, F. T.; Wieskamp, T. F.; Hoffman, R. A.

1977-01-01

While dark adapted, two Apollo-Soyuz astronauts saw eighty-two light flash events during a complete 51 deg orbit which passed near the north magnetic pole and through the South Atlantic Anomaly. The frequency of events at the polar parts of the orbit is 25 times that noted in equatorial latitudes and no increased frequency was noted in the South Atlantic Anomaly at the 225-km altitude. The expected flux of heavy particles at the northern and southern points is 1-2/min per eye, and the efficiency for seeing high Z-high energy (HZE) particles which were below the Cerenkov threshold is 50%.

A comparative study on the dominant factors responsible for the weaker-than-expected El Niño event in 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianying; Liu, Boqi; Li, Jiandong; Mao, Jiangyu

2015-10-01

Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme El Niño event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted El Niño event. Based on NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of El Niño events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean-atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific-unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of El Niño was suspended in summer 2014.

A Comparative Study on the Dominant Factors Responsible for the Weaker-than-expected El Niño Event in 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MAO, J.; Li, J.; Liu, B.; Li, J.

2015-12-01

Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme El Niño event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted El Niño event. Based on NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of El Niño events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean-atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific-unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of El Niño was suspended in summer 2014.

Geomagnetic field variations during the last 400 kyr in the western equatorial Pacific: Paleointensity-inclination correlation revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, T.; Kanamatsu, T.; Mizuno, S.; Hokanishi, N.; Gaffar, E. Z.

2008-12-01

A paleomagnetic study was conducted on four piston cores newly obtained from the West Caroline Basin in the western equatorial Pacific in order to investigate variations in paleointensity and inclination during the last 400 kyr. An inclination-intensity correlation was previously reported in this region using giant piston cores, but the quality of the paleomagnetic data of the younger end, the last ca. 300 kyr, was needed to be checked because the upper part of the giant piston cores could suffer from perturbation by oversampling. Age control is based on the oxygen-isotope ratios for one core and inter-core correlation using relative paleointensity for other cores. The mean inclinations of the four cores show negative inclination anomalies ranging from -5.2 to -11.2 degree. The western equatorial Pacific is documented as a region of a large negative inclination anomalies, and the observed values are comparable to those expected from the time-averaged field (TAF) models [Johnson and Constable, 1997; Hatakeyama and Kono, 2002]. Stacked curves of paleointensity and inclination were constructed from the four cores. It was confirmed that geomagnetic variations on the order of 10 to 100 kyrs occur in inclination as well as paleointensity. A cross-correlation analysis showed that significant in-phase correlation occurs between intensity and inclination for periods longer than about 25 kyr, and power spectra of both paleointensity and inclination variations have peaks at ~100 kyr periods. The regional paleointensity stack with higher resolution than the Sint-800 stack [Guyodo and Valet, 1999] should be useful for paleointensity-assisted chronostratigraphy.

Atmospheric Ozone Response to the Disrupted 2015-2016 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kramarova, N. A.; Tweedy, O. V.; Strahan, S. E.; Newman, P. A.; Coy, L.; Randel, W. J.; Park, M.; Waugh, D. W.; Frith, S.

2017-01-01

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) - a quasi-periodic alternation between easterly and westerly zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere - is a main driver of inter-annual ozone variability in the stratosphere. During the late-2015 through 2016 time period, the QBO experienced a major disruption unlike any observed since wind measurements began in 1953. We examined the ozone response to this QBO disruption using profile ozone measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler and total column measurements from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) Merged Ozone Data Set (MOD). Positive anomalies in stratospheric equatorial O3 developed between 50 and 30 hPa in May-September of 2016, and negative ozone anomalies were observed in the subtropics of both hemispheres. As a consequence of this QBO disruption, extratropical total ozone values during the spring-summer 2016 were at or near seasonal record lows over the more than 40 years of the total ozone record, resulting in an increase of surface UV index during northern hemisphere summer. We found very consistent responses in all considered ozone observations in terms of time, amplitude and spatial patterns. We will show the ozone changes associated with this disrupted QBO throughout the winter and spring 2017.

Spaceborne Microwave Remote Sensing of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw Processes in the Terrestrial High Latitudes: Relationships with Land-Atmosphere CO2 exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle C.; Kimball, John S.; Zhao, Maosheng; Njoku, Eni; Zimmermann, Reiner; Running, Steven W.

2004-01-01

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

Spaceborne microwave remote sensing of seasonal freeze-thaw processes in theterrestrial high l atitudes : relationships with land-atmosphere CO2 exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle C.; Kimball, John S.; Zhao, Maosheng; Njoku, Eni; Zimmermann, Reiner; Running, Steven W.

2004-01-01

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

Lunar Tidal Modulation of Periodic Meridional Movement of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Crest During Sudden Stratospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, X. H.; Zhang, D. H.

2018-02-01

Using the location of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest derived from GPS observations in China and Brazilian sector, we investigated the longitudinal dependence of periodic meridional movement of EIA crest during sudden stratospheric warming events in 2003, 2006, and 2009. The solar activity was from high to low for the three events. Results show that the locations of EIA crests in both China and Brazilian sectors exhibit obvious and constant 14- to 15-day periodic oscillation being in-phase in two sectors, which coincide with the half of the lunar revolution period (29.53 days) and the lunar phase. The temporal extent of wave power at 14-15 days is consistent with the temporal extent of stratospheric zonal wind, indicating that 14- to 15-day periodic meridional movement of EIA crest is due to enhanced lunar tide modulated by zonal wind. In addition, it is also found that the amplitude of 14- to 15-day periodic oscillation of EIA crest in China sector is larger than that in Brazilian sector, which may be caused by the longitudinal variation of tides and neutral wind pattern.

F3-layer and MSTIDs under the equatorial ionospheric anomaly crest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagundes, Paulo Roberto; Klausner, Virginia; Sahai, Yogeshwar; Bittencourt, Jose A.; Abalde Guede, Jose Ricardo

We present F3-layer and medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) observa-tions from a digital ionosonde installed at São José dos Campos (23.2° S, 45.0° W; dip latitude a 17.6° S), under the southern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) region. In this study we have used ionospheric data from September 2000 to August 2001 representing high solar activity (HSA) and ionospheric data from January 2006 to December 2006 representing low solar activity (LSA) to study the F3-layer characteristics at low latitude. The present investigation shows that the F3-layer occurrence is very larger during HSA as compared with during LSA. Also, during HSA there is a clear seasonal variation with maximum occurrence during January, February, November and December (summer months in South America) and minimum during May, June, July and August (winter months in South America). However, there is no clear seasonal variation in occurrence characteristics of F3-layer during LSA. Since, our previous work and present observations show that MSTIDs occurrences have similar re-sponse to the solar cycle; therefore, we suggest that both F3-layer and MSTIDs have strong connection.

High Speed Stream as driver of low latitude ionosphere variability: A study case in Brazilian sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicoli Candido, C. M.; Batista, I. S.; Becker-Guedes, F.; Klausner, V.; da Silva, R.

2016-12-01

The solar activity period of solar cycle 23 was unusually long and quiet in comparison to other solar minima in last century. Several reports have analyzed its features and its impact under diverse points-of-view. In this work, we analyze the low latitude ionosphere behavior in Brazil and its response during this peculiar period. The ionospheric variation is analyzed through typical parameters such as vertical total electron content (VTEC), the peak height of F2 layer and its critical frequency, hmF2 and foF2, in 2008, around the southern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA), in Cachoeira Paulista (22.5º S, 45.0 ºW, mag. lat: 16 º S, dip angle: -32.3º) and at an equatorial station, São Luís (2.33º S, 44.2º W, dip angle: -6.7º). VTEC values present a semiannual variation pattern and two well-defined peaks in March and October. It was observed periodicities observed of 9, 13.5 and 27 days in VTEC and hmF2, mainly at the first and the second half of 2008. These periods match with the observed periods in solar and geomagnetic indexes such as Vsw, Kp and AE and are associated with occurrence of high speed streams (HSS) coming from solar coronal holes. A complex response of the low latitude ionosphere is observed, with prominent increases and decreases of VTEC at daytime during the interval of occurrence of HSSs. It is suggested that a combination of several factors such as prompt penetration of electric field, disturbed dynamo electric field, meridional winds, thermal expansion of thermosphere and composition changes of neutral atmosphere are responsible for the high day-to-day variability of the ionosphere.

Evidence for wavelike anomalies with short meridional and large zonal scales in the lower stratospheric temperature field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, J. L.; Short, D. A.

1981-01-01

Global microwave brightness temperature measurements are analyzed to investigate the range of meridional wavelengths 2000-3000 km where spectral studies reveal larger than expected variance. The data, from the TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Unit, are sensitive to lower stratospheric temperatures (30-150 mb). The results reveal striking temperature anomalies with short meridional wavelengths (2000-3000 km) and long zonal wavelengths (zonal wavenumbers 1-4). The anomalies, with amplitudes approximately 1-2 K, extend from the equatorial region to at least as high as 70 deg N and 70 deg S during January 1979. The features exhibit slow eastward movement or else are nearly stationary for several days. In the Northern Hemisphere, comparison with NMC data reveals that the strongest features tend to be associated with major jet streams.

Growth of L-band scintillation at anomaly crest station in association with strong TEC gradient: A study covering wide solar activity period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, K.; Devi, M.; Barbara, A. K.; Zahan, Y.

2018-01-01

The paper aims at to study the sources associated with growth of L band scintillation over Guwahati, an Appleton anomaly region. Starting with the analysis of diurnal and seasonal characteristic features of scintillation from a minimum sunspot number (Rz) of 10 to a maximum of 140, the paper shows that scintillations are more likely to develop during high solar activity period. It also highlights the explosive increase in occurrence of scintillation from post sunset to pre midnight hours in vernal equinoctial months when the background TEC is 50% more than on a normal day, accompanied by enhanced TEC decay rate. The role of equatorial anomaly effects through EXB drift processes are brought into discussion as possible sources on the growth of small scale irregularities leading to such scintillations.

Growth of L-band scintillation at anomaly crest station in association with strong TEC gradient: A study covering wide solar activity period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, K.; Devi, M.; Barbara, A. K.; Zahan, Y.

2018-07-01

The paper aims at to study the sources associated with growth of L band scintillation over Guwahati, an Appleton anomaly region. Starting with the analysis of diurnal and seasonal characteristic features of scintillation from a minimum sunspot number (Rz) of 10 to a maximum of 140, the paper shows that scintillations are more likely to develop during high solar activity period. It also highlights the explosive increase in occurrence of scintillation from post sunset to pre midnight hours in vernal equinoctial months when the background TEC is 50% more than on a normal day, accompanied by enhanced TEC decay rate. The role of equatorial anomaly effects through EXB drift processes are brought into discussion as possible sources on the growth of small scale irregularities leading to such scintillations.

Continuous day-time time series of E-region equatorial electric fields derived from ground magnetic observatory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alken, P.; Chulliat, A.; Maus, S.

2012-12-01

The day-time eastward equatorial electric field (EEF) in the ionospheric E-region plays an important role in equatorial ionospheric dynamics. It is responsible for driving the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) current system, equatorial vertical ion drifts, and the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Due to its importance, there is much interest in accurately measuring and modeling the EEF. However, there are limited sources of direct EEF measurements with full temporal and spatial coverage of the equatorial ionosphere. In this work, we propose a method of estimating a continuous day-time time series of the EEF at any longitude, provided there is a pair of ground magnetic observatories in the region which can accurately track changes in the strength of the EEJ. First, we derive a climatological unit latitudinal current profile from direct overflights of the CHAMP satellite and use delta H measurements from the ground observatory pair to determine the magnitude of the current. The time series of current profiles is then inverted for the EEF by solving the governing electrodynamic equations. While this method has previously been applied and validated in the Peruvian sector, in this work we demonstrate the method using a pair of magnetometers in Africa (Samogossoni, SAM, 0.18 degrees magnetic latitude and Tamanrasset, TAM, 11.5 degrees magnetic latitude) and validate the resulting EEF values against the CINDI ion velocity meter (IVM) instrument on the C/NOFS satellite. We find a very good 80% correlation with C/NOFS IVM measurements and a root-mean-square difference of 9 m/s in vertical drift velocity. This technique can be extended to any pair of ground observatories which can capture the day-time strength of the EEJ. We plan to apply this work to more observatory pairs around the globe and distribute real-time equatorial electric field values to the community.

Prediction of post-sunset ESF based on the strength and asymmetry of EIA from ground based TEC measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thampi, S. V.; Ravindran, S.; Devasia, C. V.; Pant, T. K.; Sreelatha, P.; Sridharan, R.

The Coherent Radio Beacon Experiment (CRABEX) is aimed at investigating the equatorial ionospheric processes like the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) and Equatorial Spread F (ESF) and their inter relationships. As a part of CRABEX program, a network of six stations covering the region from Trivandrum (8.5°N) to Nainital (29.3°N) is set up along the 77-78° E meridian. These ground receivers basically measure the slant Total Electron Content (TEC) along the line of sight from the Low Earth Orbiting satellites (NIMS). These simultaneous TEC measurements are inverted to obtain the tomographic image of the latitudinal distribution of electron densities in the meridional plane. In this paper, the tomographic images of the equatorial ionosphere along the 77-78°E meridian are presented. The crest intensities in the southern and northern hemispheres also show significant differences with seasons, showing the variability in the EIA asymmetry. The evening images give an indication of the prevailing electrodynamical conditions on different days, preceding the occurrence/non-occurrence of ESF. Apart from this, the single station TEC measurements from the Trivandrum station itself is used to estimate the EIA strength and asymmetry. Since this station is situated at the trough of the EIA, right over the dip equator, the latitudinal gradients on both northern (N) and southern (S) sides can be used to compute the EIA strength and asymmetry. These two parameters, obtained well ahead of the onset time of ESF, are shown to have a definite role on the subsequent ESF activity. Hence, both these factors are combined to define a new `forecast parameter' for the generation of ESF. It has been shown that this parameter can uniquely define the state of the `background ionosphere' conducive for the generation of ESF irregularities as early as 1600 IST. A critical value for the `forecast parameter' has been identified such that when the estimated value for `forecast parameter' exceeds it, the ESF is seen to occur. It is also observed that this critical value varies with season. All these aspects are studied in detail and the results are presented.

RAL Low-cost Ionosonde System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamper, R.; Davis, C. J.; Bradford, W. J.; Hapgood, M. A.; McCrea, I. W.

2009-04-01

Ionosondes continue to be important for the study of the ionosphere; they are relatively cheap and simple to install and operate, so can be distributed widely across the globe; they can give information on plasma density, structure and motion; their direct measurements of electron densities are also important for calibrating other more complicated observation methods such as incoherent scatter radar, satellite beacon tomography and radio occultation. The low cost of sounders, however, is relative to facilities such as space-based instrumentation and incoherent scatter radars; one type of ionosonde widely used for monitoring costs in excess of €150,000, representing a significant investment for many organisations. A new instrument design is under development at RAL for a low-power sounder using pulse-coding techniques to get good signal-to-noise. The design uses COTS components wherever possible, and has a projected cost in the region of €6,000 for the simplest version, making such a system accessible to all. The design is tiered so that the simplest version would give information about layer heights and electron densities, but adding multiple receivers would enable plasma velocities and echo direction to be determined, increasing the science output. The intention is that sounders of this new design be installed widely, in particular in developing nations. This would be especially beneficial for study of the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere, which is relatively poorly understood because of a relative lack of instrumentation in this region. A wide range of studies would be enabled or enhanced by a much denser network of ionosondes across Africa, South America and Asia including: study of planetary-scale oscillations and gravity waves in the ionosphere; investigation of longitudinal variation in the equatorial electrojet and equatorial anomaly; examination of mechanisms for vertical coupling in the atmosphere with, for example, global thunderstorm activity being concentrated in Africa and South America; the study of ionospheric scintillation mechanisms and occurrence in the equatorial region; thorough characterisation of ionospheric variability on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales across a wide range of longitudes.

RAL Low-Cost Ionosonde System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamper, R.; Davis, C.; Bradford, J.

2005-12-01

Ionosondes continue to be important for the study of the ionosphere; they are relatively cheap and simple to install and operate, so can be distributed widely across the globe; they can give information on plasma density, structure and motion; their direct measurements of electron densities are also important for calibrating other more complicated observation methods such as incoherent scatter radar, satellite beacon tomography and radio occultation. The low cost of sounders, however, is relative to facilities such as space-based instrumentation and incoherent scatter radars; one type of ionosonde widely used for monitoring costs in excess of 200,000, representing a significant investment for many organisations. A new instrument design is under development at RAL for a low-power sounder using pulse-coding techniques to get good signal-to-noise. The design uses COTS components wherever possible, and has a projected cost in the region of 7,500 for the simplest version, making such a system accessible to all. The design is tiered so that the simplest version would give information about layer heights and electron densities, but adding multiple receivers would enable plasma velocities and echo direction to be determined, increasing the science output. The intention is that sounders of this new design be installed widely, in particular in developing nations. This would be especially beneficial for study of the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere, which is relatively poorly understood because of a relative lack of instrumentation in this region. A wide range of studies would be enabled or enhanced by a much denser network of ionosondes across Africa, South America and Asia including: study of planetary-scale oscillations and gravity waves in the ionosphere; investigation of longitudinal variation in the equatorial electrojet and equatorial anomaly; examination of mechanisms for vertical coupling in the atmosphere with, for example, global thunderstorm activity being concentrated in Africa and South America; the study of ionospheric scintillation mechanisms and occurrence in the equatorial region; thorough characterisation of ionospheric variability on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales across a wide range of longitudes.

Equatorial Wave Activity during NOAA's 2016 El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiladis, G. N.; Dias, J.; Gehne, M.; Mayer, K.

2016-12-01

The El Niño Rapid Response (ENRR) field campaign targeted equatorial Pacific atmospheric convective activity during January-March 2016 through enhanced observations using dropsondes from the NOAA G-IV aircraft and radiosonde observations from Kiritimati (Christmas) Island and the NOAA research ship the Ronald H. Brown. This presentation examines the equatorial wave activity observed during ENRR and its relationship to tropical convection, and compares this activity to observations of past large El Niño events. The 2015-16 El Niño had much in common with the events during 1982-83 and 1997-98, with similar amplitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but also differed in several key aspects. All of these episodes featured enhanced convectively coupled Kelvin wave activity crossing the entire Pacific basin, which is generally absent during the northern winter seasons of near normal or La Niña SSTs. Prior to the ENRR period during December 2015 a large amplitude Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was observed, with a convective signal that propagated unusually far to the east ( 150W). This was associated with an eastward displacement of the North Pacific storm track and heavy precipitation along the west coast of North America, broadly matching the large scale behavior of MJO evolution in statistical composites during El Niño. A second MJO-like event occurred during the latter part of February, 2016, but despite a similar convective heating field, the basic state flow was much different than during December, with a well-developed "westerly duct" which favored the intrusion of extratropical Rossby wave energy into the equatorial eastern Pacific region, as can be seen in E Vector fields. This latter event was accompanied by a distinct lack of an extended storm track and associated precipitation along the west coast of North America. Based on the preliminary results of AMIP simulations using observed SSTs, these differences are difficult to reproduce, and are hypothesized to be due to a certain level of "internal variability" within the storm track itself that may have been overriding the large scale forcing by the tropical diabatic heating field.

Transport and Thermohaline Structure in the Western Tropical North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schonau, Martha Coakley

Transport and thermohaline structure of water masses and their respective variability are observed and modeled in the western tropical North Pacific using autonomous underwater gliders, Argo climatology and a numerical ocean state estimate. The North Equatorial Current (NEC) advects subtropical and subpolar water masses into the region that are transported equatorward by the Mindanao Current (MC). Continuous glider observations of these two currents from June 2009 to December 2013 provide absolute geostrophic velocity, water mass structure, and transport. The observations are compared to Argo climatology (Roemmich and Gilson, 2009), wind and precipitation to assess forcing, and annual and interannual variability. Observations are assimilated into a regional ocean state estimate (1/6°) to examine regional transport variability and its relationship to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena (ENSO). The NEC, described in Chapter 1, is observed along 134.3°E, from 8.5°N to 16.5°N. NEC thermocline transport is relatively constant, with a variable subthermocline transport that is distinguished by countercurrents centered at 9.6°N and 13.1°N. Correlation between thermocline and subthermocline transport is strong. Isopycnals with subducted water masses, the North Pacific Tropical Water and North Pacific Intermediate Water, have the greatest fine-scale thermohaline variance. The NEC advects water masses into the MC, described in Chapter 2, that flows equatorward along the coast of Mindanao. Gliders observed the MC at a mean latitude of 8.5°N. The Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC) persists in the subthermocline offshore of the MC, with a net poleward transport of intermediate water typical of South Pacific origin. The variable subthermocline transport in the MC/MUC has an inverse linear relationship with the Nino 3.4 index and strongly impacts total transport variability. For each the MC and NEC, surface salinity and thermocline depth have a strong relationship with ENSO, and there is relationship between the fine-scale and large-scale isopycnal thermohaline structure. In Chapter 3, a numerical ocean state estimates shows strong interannual variability of regional transport with ENSO. Prior to mature ENSO events, transport in each the NEC, MC and North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) increase. The increase is from meridional gradients in isopycnal depth related to interannual wind anomalies.

Tropical Pacific sea surface salinity variability derived from SMOS data: Comparison with in-situ observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballabrera, Joaquim; Hoareau, Nina; Umbert, Marta; Martínez, Justino; Turiel, Antonio

2013-04-01

Prediction of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its relation with global climate anomalies, continues to be an important research effort in short-term climate forecasting. This task has become even more challenging as researchers are becoming more and more convinced that there is not a single archetypical El Niño (or La Niña) pattern, but several. During some events (called now Standard or East Pacific), the largest temperature anomalies are located at the eastern part of the Pacific. However, during some of the most recent events, the largest anomalies are restricted to the central part of the Pacific Ocean, and are now called Central Pacific or Modoki (a Japanese word for "almost") events. Although the role of salinity in operational ENSO forecasting was initially neglected (in contrast with temperature, sea level, or surface winds), recent studies have shown that salinity does play a role in the preconditioning of ENSO. Moreover, some researchers suggest that sea surface salinity might play a role (through the modulation of the western Pacific barrier layer) to favor the Standard or the Modoki nature of each event. Sea Surface Salinity maps are being operationally generated from microwave (L-band, 1.4 Ghz) brightness temperature maps. The L-band frequency was chosen because is the optimal one for ocean salinity measurements. However, after three years of satellite data, it has been found that noise in brightness temperatures (due to natural and artificial sources) is larger than expected. Moreover, the retrieval of SSS information requires special care because of the low sensitivity of the brightness temperature to SSS: from 0.2-0.8 K per salinity unit. Despite of all these facts, current accuracy of SS maps ranges from 0.2-0.4, depending on the processing level and the region being considered. We present here our study about the salinity variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean from the 9-day, 0.25 bins salinity maps derived from the SMOS reprocessing campaign released to the SMOS user community on March 2011. During the period under study, the equatorial Pacific has been in a quasi-continuous La Niña state. During the cold phases of ENSO, positive anomalies of SSS are expected with the largest anomalous values in the western warm-fresh pool. The anomalies derived from the SMOS data do indeed display a positive anomaly. The persistence of the feature, its geographical pattern, the time modulation of the anomaly amplitude indicate, and its resemblance with in situ observations indicate this novel observation technology is currently able to capture seasonal and interannual signatures of climate interest.

WES feedback and the Atlantic Meridional Mode: observations and CMIP5 comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaya, Dillon J.; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Miller, Arthur J.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-09-01

The Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) is the dominant mode of tropical SST/wind coupled variability. Modeling studies have implicated wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback as the primary driver of the AMM's evolution across the Atlantic basin; however, a robust coupling of the SST and winds has not been shown in observations. This study examines observed AMM growth, propagation, and decay as a result of WES interactions. Investigation of an extended maximum covariance analysis shows that boreal wintertime atmospheric forcing generates positive SST anomalies (SSTA) through a reduction of surface evaporative cooling. When the AMM peaks in magnitude during spring and summer, upward latent heat flux anomalies occur over the warmest SSTs and act to dampen the initial forcing. In contrast, on the southwestern edge of the SSTA, SST-forced cross-equatorial flow reduces the strength of the climatological trade winds and provides an anomalous latent heat flux into the ocean, which causes southwestward propagation of the initial atmosphere-forced SSTA through WES dynamics. Additionally, the lead-lag relationship of the ocean and atmosphere indicates a transition from an atmosphere-forcing-ocean regime in the northern subtropics to a highly coupled regime in the northern tropics that is not observed in the southern hemisphere. CMIP5 models poorly simulate the latitudinal transition from a one-way interaction to a two-way feedback, which may explain why they also struggle to reproduce spatially coherent interactions between tropical Atlantic SST and winds. This analysis provides valuable insight on how meridional modes act as links between extratropical and tropical variability and focuses future research aimed at improving climate model simulations.

Hydrology and climate in the southwestern Amazon basin (Bolivia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronchail, J.; Bourrel, L.; Maurice-Bourgoin, L.; Vauchel, P.; Cochonneau, G.; Guyot, J. L.; Phillips, L.; Castro, A.

2003-04-01

The variability of the runoff of the Bolivian tributaries of the Madeira River, the greatest southern affluent of the Amazon R., is of major importance for the riparian people safety and for the economic development of the region. We investigated whether the discharge of these rivers is predictable or not, using the Sea Surface Temperatures Anomalies (SSTAs) in the Equatorial Pacific and in the Tropical Atlantic oceans. The hydrological variability is studied using daily river discharge data of 3 tributaries: the Rio Beni in Rurrenabaque, the Rio Ichilo in Puerto Villaroel and the Mamoré River in Puerto Varador, respectively representative of the Andes, the Andean Piedmont and the lowlands. This information has been collected and criticized in the mark of successive Bolivian - French conventions. The hydrological response of the Andean river is out of phase with that of the piedmont and plain rivers. The Rio Beni in Rurrenabaque experiments high runoff during La Niña events and during cool (warm) events in the northern (southern) tropical Atlantic. On the contrary, the Ichilo and Mamoré Rivers and inundation data show that high runoff are more frequent during El Niño events and when the southern tropical Atlantic Ocean is cooler than normally. 30% of the Beni R. discharge variability is explained by the ENSO events and 25% by the SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic. In the Andean piedmont and in the lowlands, the ENSO explains 45% of the discharges, but differences in series lengths may also contribute to this better result. On the contrary, the relationship with the southern tropical Atlantic is only a tendency and is not statistically significant. To conclude, the SSTAs in the tropical oceans do not allow a prediction of the discharge variability of the Bolivian tributaries of the Madeira River but they contribute to their comprehension. The present results, different for Andean and Piedmont or lowlands tributaries, are consistent with those relative to the ENSO and tropical Atlantic related rainfall anomalies in both regions of Bolivia.

The Summer Monsoon of 1987.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Bedi, H. S.; Subramaniam, M.

1989-04-01

In this paper we have examined the evolution of a number of parameters we believe were important for our understanding of the drought over India during the summer of 1987. The list of parameters includes monthly means or anomalies of the following fields: sea surface temperatures, divergent circulations, outgoing longwave radiation, streamfunction of the lower and upper troposphere, and monthly precipitation (expressed as a percentage departure from a long-term mean). The El Niño related warm sea surface temperature anomaly and a weaker warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean provide sustained convection, as reflected by the negative values of the outgoing longwave radiation. With the seasonal heating, a pronounced planetary-scale divergent circulation evolved with a center along the western Pacific Ocean. The monsoonal divergent circulation merged with that related to the El Niño, maintaining most of the heavy rainfall activity between the equatorial Pacific Ocean and east Asia. Persistent convective activity continued south of India during the entire monsoon season. Strong Hadley type overturnings with rising motions over these warm SST anomaly regions and descent roughly near 20° to 25°S was evident as early as April 1987. The subtropical high pressure areas near 20° to 25°S showed stronger than normal circulations. This was revealed by the presence of a counterclockwise streamfunction anomaly at 850 mb during April 1987. With the seasonal heating, this anomaly moved northwards and was located over the Arabian Sea and India. This countermonsoon circulation anomaly at the low levels was associated with a weaker than normal Somali jet and Arabian Sea circulation throughout this summer. The monsoon remained active along northeast India, Bangladesh, northern lndochina, and central China during the summer monsoon season. This was related to the eastward shift of the divergent circulation. An eastward shift of the upper tropospheric anticyclone bell near 25° to 30°N resulted in the continued presence of a westerly wind anomaly north of India. The westerly winds brought in very dry air over the tropical upper troposphere. The dry air penetrated eastwards to central Uttar Pradesh and this seemed to have a major role in inhibiting organized deep convection over most of central, northern and western parts of the Indian subcontinent. The westward extension of the planetary-scale divergent circulation over North and South Africa and the continued drought over the regions are also briefly addressed.

Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annamalai, H.; Liu, P.

2005-04-01

Diagnostics from observed precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis products reveal that after the 1976-77 climate shift in the Pacific there was a dramatic change in the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to El Niño, particularly during the months of July and August. Based on 1950-75 (PRE76) and 1977-2001 (POST76) El Niño composites: the western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) was stronger than normal in both periods; the ISM was weaker than normal during the entire monsoon season in PRE76, but in POST76 was weaker only during the onset and withdrawal phases. In terms of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during July-August, the major differences between the two periods are the presence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the intensity of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific in POST76. The effect of these differences on the ISM is investigated in a suite of experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) that has a realistic monsoon precipitation climatology.Separate ten-member ensemble simulations with the AGCM were conducted for PRE76 and POST76 El Niño events with SST anomalies inserted as follows: (i) tropical Indo-Pacific (TIP), (ii) tropical Pacific only (TPO), and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean only (TIO). Qualitatively, TPO solutions reproduce the observed differences in the monsoon response in both periods. Specifically, during July-August of POST76 the cold SST anomalies in conjunction with remote subsidence suppress precipitation (3-5 mm day-1) over the maritime continent and equatorial central Indian Ocean. Inclusion of Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the TIP runs further suppresses precipitation over the entire equatorial Indian Ocean. The low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby-wave response to these convective anomalies increase the south-westerlies over the northern Indian Ocean, and favour a stronger ISM and WNPM. During PRE76 the non-occurrence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo-Pacific warm pool reinforces El Niño's suppression on the ISM.In contrast, TIO solutions show a reduced ISM during July-August of POST76; the solutions, however, show a significant effect on the WNPM during both PRE76 and POST76 periods. It is argued that SSTs over the entire tropical Indo-Pacific region need to be considered to understand the El Niño Southern Oscillation-monsoon linkage, and to make predictions of rainfall over India and the western North Pacific.

The role of model errors represented by nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" within ENSO predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Wansuo; Zhao, Peng

2017-04-01

Within the Zebiak-Cane model, the nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV) approach is used to investigate the role of model errors in the "Spring Predictability Barrier" (SPB) phenomenon within ENSO predictions. NFSV-related errors have the largest negative effect on the uncertainties of El Niño predictions. NFSV errors can be classified into two types: the first is characterized by a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies (SSTA), with the western poles centered in the equatorial central-western Pacific exhibiting positive anomalies and the eastern poles in the equatorial eastern Pacific exhibiting negative anomalies; and the second is characterized by a pattern almost opposite the first type. The first type of error tends to have the worst effects on El Niño growth-phase predictions, whereas the latter often yields the largest negative effects on decaying-phase predictions. The evolution of prediction errors caused by NFSV-related errors exhibits prominent seasonality, with the fastest error growth in the spring and/or summer seasons; hence, these errors result in a significant SPB related to El Niño events. The linear counterpart of NFSVs, the (linear) forcing singular vector (FSV), induces a less significant SPB because it contains smaller prediction errors. Random errors cannot generate a SPB for El Niño events. These results show that the occurrence of an SPB is related to the spatial patterns of tendency errors. The NFSV tendency errors cause the most significant SPB for El Niño events. In addition, NFSVs often concentrate these large value errors in a few areas within the equatorial eastern and central-western Pacific, which likely represent those areas sensitive to El Niño predictions associated with model errors. Meanwhile, these areas are also exactly consistent with the sensitive areas related to initial errors determined by previous studies. This implies that additional observations in the sensitive areas would not only improve the accuracy of the initial field but also promote the reduction of model errors to greatly improve ENSO forecasts.

Definition of the continent-ocean boundary of India and the surrounding oceanic regions from Magsat data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, B. P.; Rajaram, Mita; Bapat, V. J.

1991-06-01

Magsat studies over the Indian region and adjoining areas show that the continental-oceanic contrasts appear more distinctly in the equivalent magnetization solution than in the anomaly maps. The vertical component ( Z) is found to be more useful for the equatorial regions. It is also noted that, in general, the continental crust has a higher magnetization than the oceanic crust. Further, the continental crust seems to extend into the Arabian Sea across a part of the west coast. A similar continuation is seen in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal. The west coast result is corroborated using land and marine Bouguer gravity anomalies.

Fires in Non-drought Conditions in Indonesia: the Role of Increasing Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Verchot, L. V.; Baethgen, W.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Martius, C.

2017-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2016-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Dune advance into a coastal forest, equatorial Brazil: A subsurface perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buynevich, Ilya V.; Filho, Pedro Walfir M. Souza; Asp, Nils E.

2010-06-01

A large active parabolic dune along the coast of Pará State, northern Brazil, was analyzed using aerial photography and imaged with high-resolution ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to map the subsurface facies architecture and point-source anomalies. Most high-amplitude (8-10 dB) subsurface anomalies are correlated with partially buried mangrove trees along the leading edge (slipface) of the advancing dune. Profiles along a 200-m long basal stoss side of the dune reveal 66 targets, most of which lie below the water table and are thus inaccessible by other methods. Signal amplitudes of point-source anomalies are substantially higher than those associated with the reflections from continuous subsurface features (water table, sedimentary layers). When complemented with exposures and excavations, GPR provides the best means of rapid continuous imaging of the geological record of complex interactions between vegetation and aeolian deposition.

SMMR-SSM/I derived Greenland Sea ice variability: links with Indian and Korean Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Pandithurai, G.

2018-02-01

Greenland Sea ice area (GRESIA) in boreal autumn and its association with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall over India and South Korea is assessed for the period 1983-2013. It is found that GRESIA in the month of October has a significant positive relation (correlation coefficient (cc) = 0.45) with the subsequent Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) while having a significant negative relation (cc = -0.40) with the ensuing Korean monsoon rainfall (KMR). GRESIA episodes in the preceding autumn impact the ensuing summer monsoon rainfall over India (South Korea) adversely (favourably). While central Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a mediating role in transmitting the GRESIA signal towards the Indian subcontinent, snow over eastern Eurasia, just north of the Korea-Japan peninsula, plays a mediating role in transmitting the GRESIA signal towards the Korean peninsula. Although, the anomalies of equatorial central Pacific SSTs and eastern Eurasian snow play a crucial role in modulating IMR and KMR respectively, the GRESIA variability also plays a dominant role in modulating the monsoon variability over both the regions. Thus, a combination of autumn GRESIA along with SSTs over the central Pacific and snow over the eastern Eurasia, may possibly serve as a unique precursor to presage Asia's two diverse regional subsystems.

Wave Forcing of Saturn's Equatorial Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flasar, F. M.; Schlinder, P. J.; Guerlet, S.; Fouchet, T.

2011-01-01

Ground-based measurements and Cassini data from CIRS thermal-infrared spectra and radio-occultation soundings have characterized the spatial structure and temporal behavior of a 15-year equatorial oscillation in Saturn's stratosphere. The equatorial region displays a vertical pattern of alternating warm and cold anomalies and, concomitantly, easterly and westerly winds relative to the cloud-top winds, with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 200 m/s. Comparison of the Cassini data over a four-year period has established that the pattern of mean zonal winds and temperatures descends at a rate of roughly I scale height over 4 years. This behavior is reminiscent of the equatorial oscillations in Earth's middle atmosphere. Here the zonal-mean spatial structure and descending pattern are driven by the absorption of vertically propagating waves. The maximum excursions in the pattern of easterly and westerly winds is determined by the limits of the zonal phase velocities of the waves. Here we report on the characterization of the waves seen in the temperature profiles retrieved from the Cassini radio-occultation soundings. The equatorial profiles exhibit a complex pattern of wavelike structure with dimensions one pressure scale height and smaller. We combine a spectral decomposition with a WKBJ analysis, where the vertical wavelength is assumed to vary slowly with the ambient static stability and doppler-shifted phase velocity of the wave. Use of the temperature and zonal wind maps from CIRS makes this approach viable. On Earth, the wave forcing associated with the equatorial oscillations generates secondary meridional circulations that affect the mean flow and planetary wave ducting well away from the equator. This may relate to the triggering of the recently reported mid-latitude storms on Saturn.

The role of SST on the South American atmospheric circulation during January, February and March 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drumond, Anita Rodrigues De Moraes; Ambrizzi, Tércio

2005-06-01

Precipitation deficits were observed over southeastern, northeastern and Central Brazil during the 2001 Austral Summer. They contributed to the worsening of the energy crisis that was occurring in the country. A low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation observed over eastern Brazil enhanced the deviation of moisture transport that usually occurs from the Amazon Basin to southeastern Brazil and inhibited the occurrence of South Atlantic Convergence Zone events in that period. However, an anomalous low-level northerly moisture flux was observed over the La Plata Basin, and positive precipitation anomalies occurred over Bolivia, Paraguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. Using the ensemble technique, a numerical study was carried out to investigate the role of different sea surface temperature (SST) forcings observed over this anomalous South American atmospheric circulation. Reynolds SST monthly means were used as boundary conditions to study the influence of South Atlantic, South Indian, South Pacific and Equatorial Pacific oceans. The simulations were run from September 2000 to April 2001 using the Community Climate Model version 3.6 General Circulation Model. Ten integrations using different initial conditions were done to each experiment. Numerical experiments suggested that the combined influence of South Pacific and Equatorial Pacific oceans could be responsible for the drought observed over Central Brazil. These experiments simulated the low-level anticyclonic anomaly observed over eastern Brazil. However, both experiments have poorly reproduced the intensity of the anomalous low-level northerly moisture flux observed over the La Plata Basin. Therefore, the intensity of the simulated precipitation anomalies over the subtropical regions was much weaker than observed.

Air-Sea Interaction in the Somali Current Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, T. G.; Rydbeck, A.

2017-12-01

The western Indian Ocean is an area of high eddy-kinetic energy generated by local wind-stress curl, instability of boundary currents as well as Rossby waves from the west coast of India and the equatorial wave guide as they reflect off the African coast. The presence of meso-scale eddies and coastal upwelling during the Southwest Monsoon affects the air-sea interaction on those scales. The U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) is used to understand and quantify the surface flux, effects on surface waves and the role of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies on ocean-atmosphere coupling in that area. The COAMPS atmosphere model component with 9 km resolution is fully coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) with 3.5 km resolution and the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model with 10 km resolution. Data assimilation using a 3D-variational approach is included in hindcast runs performed daily since June 1, 2015. An interesting result is that a westward jet associated with downwelling equatorial Rossy waves initiated the reversal from the southward Somali Current found during the northeast monsoon to a northward flow in March 2016 more than a month before the beginning of the southwest monsoon. It is also found that warm SST anomalies in the Somali Current eddies, locally increase surface wind speed due to an increase in the atmospheric boundary layer height. This results in an increase in significant wave height and also an increase in heat flux to the atmosphere. Cold SST anomalies over upwelling filaments have the opposite impacts on air-sea fluxes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilbourne, K H; Quinn, T M; Guilderson, T P

Water that forms the Florida Current, and eventually the Gulf Stream, coalesces in the Caribbean from both subtropical and equatorial sources. The equatorial sources are made up of, in part, South Atlantic water moving northward and compensating for southward flow at depth related to meridional overturning circulation. Subtropical surface water contains relatively high amounts of radiocarbon ({sup 14}C), whereas equatorial waters are influenced by the upwelling of low {sup 14}C water and have relatively low concentrations of {sup 14}C. We use a 250-year record of {Delta}{sup 14}C in a coral from southwestern Puerto Rico along with previously published coral {Delta}{supmore » 14}C records as tracers of subtropical and equatorial water mixing in the northern Caribbean. Data generated in this study and from other studies indicate that the influence of either of the two water masses can change considerably on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Variability due to ocean dynamics in this region is large relative to variability caused by atmospheric {sup 14}C changes, thus masking the Suess effect at this site. A mixing model produced using coral {Delta}{sup 14}C illustrates the time varying proportion of equatorial versus subtropical waters in the northern Caribbean between 1963 and 1983. The results of the model are consistent with linkages between multidecadal thermal variability in the North Atlantic and meridional overturning circulation. Ekman transport changes related to tradewind variability are proposed as a possible mechanism to explain the observed switches between relatively low and relatively high {Delta}{sup 14}C values in the coral radiocarbon records.« less

THEOS-2 Orbit Design: Formation Flying in Equatorial Orbit and Damage Prevention Technique for the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimnoo, Ammarin

2016-07-01

Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) has initiative THEOS-2 project after the THEOS-1 has been operated for more than 7 years which is over the lifetime already. THEOS-2 project requires not only the development of earth observation satellite(s), but also the development of the area-based decision making solution platform comprising of data, application systems, data processing and production system, IT infrastructure improvement and capacity building through development of satellites, engineering model, and infrastructures capable of supporting research in related fields. The developing satellites in THEOS-2 project are THAICHOTE-2 and THAICHOTE-3. This paper focuses the orbit design of THAICHOTE-2 & 3. It discusses the satellite orbit design for the second and third EOS of Thailand. In this paper, both THAICHOTE will be simulated in an equatorial orbit as a formation flying which will be compared the productive to THAICHOTE-1 (THEOS-1). We also consider a serious issue in equatorial orbit design, namely the issue of the geomagnetic field in the area of the eastern coast of South America, called the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA). The high-energy particles of SAMA comprise a radiation environment which can travel through THAICHOTE-2 & 3 material and deposit kinetic energy. This process causes atomic displacement or leaves a stream of charged atoms in the incident particles' wake. It can cause damage to the satellite including reduction of power generated by solar arrays, failure of sensitive electronics, increased background noise in sensors, and exposure of the satellite devices to radiation. This paper demonstrates the loss of ionizing radiation damage and presents a technique to prevent damage from high-energy particles in the SAMA.

Winter-spring anomalies in the stratospheric content of NO2 from ground-based measurement results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ageyeva, V. Yu.; Gruzdev, A. N.; Elokhov, A. S.; Grishaev, M. V.

2015-07-01

According to the results of ground-based spectrometric measurements, significant negative anomalies in the stratospheric content of NO2 were observed at a number of stations in the Northern Hemisphere during winter and spring 2011. These anomalies were accompanied by those in total ozone content (TOC) and stratospheric temperature and were caused by the transport of air masses from the region of the arctic ozone hole. The results of analysis of vertical NO2 profiles obtained at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station showed that a certain contribution to the 2011 negative anomalies of NO2 was made due to a denitrification of the polar stratosphere in the ozone-hole region. The relation between variations in the total content of NO2 and those in the TOC and temperature was analyzed for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres during winter-spring periods. It was found that this relation depends on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratospheric equatorial wind. Such a correlation usually intensifies if only the episodes of negative anomalies caused by the transport of stratospheric air masses from the ozone-hole region are taken into consideration.

The variability of the surface wind field in the equatorial Pacific Ocean: Criteria for satellite measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.

1984-01-01

The natural variability of the equatorial Pacific surface wind field is described from long period surface wind measurements made at three sites along the equator (95 deg W, 109 deg 30 W, 152 deg 30 W). The data were obtained from surface buoys moored in the deep ocean far from islands or land, and provide criteria to adequately sample the tropical Pacific winds from satellites.

Plasma bubble monitoring by TEC map and 630 nm airglow image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, H.; Wrasse, C. M.; Otsuka, Y.; Ivo, A.; Gomes, V.; Paulino, I.; Medeiros, A. F.; Denardini, C. M.; Sant'Anna, N.; Shiokawa, K.

2015-08-01

Equatorial ionosphere plasma bubbles over the South American continent were successfully observed by mapping the total electron content (TECMAP) using data provided by ground-based GNSS receiver networks. The TECMAP could cover almost all of the continent within ~4000 km distance in longitude and latitude, monitoring TEC variability continuously with a time resolution of 10 min. Simultaneous observations of OI 630 nm all-sky image at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W) and Cariri (7.4°S, 36.5°W) were used to compare the bubble structures. The spatial resolution of the TECMAP varied from 50 km to 1000 km, depending on the density of the observation sites. On the other hand, optical imaging has a spatial resolution better than 15 km, depicting the fine structure of the bubbles but covering a limited area (~1600 km diameter). TECMAP has an advantage in its spatial coverage and the continuous monitoring (day and night) form. The initial phase of plasma depletion in the post-sunset equatorial ionization anomaly (PS-EIA) trough region, followed by development of plasma bubbles in the crest region, could be monitored in a progressive way over the magnetic equator. In December 2013 to January 2014, periodically spaced bubble structures were frequently observed. The longitudinal spacing between the bubbles was around 600-800 km depending on the day. The periodic form of plasma bubbles may suggest a seeding process related to the solar terminator passage in the ionosphere.

Investigating repeatable ionospheric features during large space storms and superstorms

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-25

operated under continuous disturbance dynamo electric field effects. Thus, this storm offered the opportunity to study the impact of eastward PPEF on the...daytime Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) while the disturbance dynamo continued. The 25 September 1998 great storm (Dst = -220 nT) was a unique...as the prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) developed and operated under continuous disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF) effects. Thus, this

A statistical study of single crest phenomenon in the equatorial ionospheric anomaly region using Swarm A satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathy, Adel; Ghamry, Essam

2017-03-01

Though the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) is represented by two crests within ±15° latitude, a single crest is also observed in the entire ionosphere. Few studies have addressed single crest phenomena. A statistical study of 2237 single crest phenomenon from the in situ electron density measurements of Swarm A satellite was investigated during December 2013-December 2015. Our analysis focused on local time, seasonal, and both geographic and geomagnetic latitudinal variations. Our results show the following observations: 1 - The maximum number of events peaks mainly in the dayside region around 0800-1200 LT and these occur mainly within the magnetic equator. 2 - The maximum amplitude of the single crests take place most prominently during equinoxes. 3 - The majority of single crests occur in the northern hemisphere. 4 - The seasonal distribution of the events shows that the summer events are located further from the magnetic equator in the northern hemisphere and shift their locations into the southern hemisphere in winter, while spring events are centered along the magnetic equator. 5 - Dayside single crest events appear close to the magnetic equator and more centered on the equator in winter season. 6 - Dawn, night and dusk side events reverse their location from northern hemisphere in summer to southern hemisphere in winter.

The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, Matt; Haywood, Jim M.; Collins, Mat; Jones, Andy

2018-01-01

The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a coupled climate model, HadGEM2-ES, is used to investigate the response to idealised energy perturbations in the tropics and extratropics, in both the northern and southern hemispheres, through the imposition of stratospheric aerosols that reflect incoming radiation. The impact on the tropical climate of high and low latitude forcing strongly contrasts, with large changes in tropical precipitation and modulation of the DI bias when the tropics are cooled as precipitation moves away from the cooled hemisphere. These responses are muted when the extratropics are cooled, as the meridional energy transport anomalies that are excited by these energy budget anomalies are partitioned between the atmosphere and ocean. The results here highlight the persistence of the DI bias in HadGEM2-ES, indicating why little progress has been made in rectifying these problems through many generations of climate models. A highly linear relationship between cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport, tropical precipitation asymmetry and tropical sea surface temperature biases is also demonstrated, giving some suggestion as to where improvements in these large scale, persistent biases may be achieved.

Remote SST Forcing and Local Land-Atmosphere Moisture Coupling as Drivers of Amazon Temperature and Carbon Cycle Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, P. A.; Xu, M.; Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

Interannual variability of climatic conditions in the Amazon rainforest is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in these remote ocean regions drive teleconnections with Amazonian surface air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and net ecosystem production (NEP). While SST-driven NEP anomalies have been primarily linked to T anomalies, it is unclear how much the T anomalies result directly from SST forcing of atmospheric circulation, and how much result indirectly from decreases in precipitation that, in turn, influence surface energy fluxes. Interannual variability of P associated with SST anomalies lead to variability in soil moisture (SM), which would indirectly affect T via partitioning of turbulent heat fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. To separate the direct and indirect influence of the SST signal on T and NEP, we performed a mechanism-denial experiment to decouple SST and SM anomalies. We used the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACMEv0.3), with version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model and version 4.5 of the Community Land Model. We forced the model with observed SSTs from 1982-2016. We found that SST and SM variability both contribute to T and NEP anomalies in the Amazon, with relative contributions depending on lag time and location within the Amazon basin. SST anomalies associated with ENSO drive most of the T variability at shorter lag times, while the ENSO-driven SM anomalies contribute more to T variability at longer lag times. SM variability and the resulting influence on T anomalies are much stronger in the eastern Amazon than in the west. Comparing modeled T with observations demonstrate that SST alone is sufficient for simulating the correct timing of T variability, but SM anomalies are necessary for simulating the correct magnitude of the T variability. Modeled NEP indicated that variability in carbon fluxes results from both SST and SM anomalies. As with T, SM anomalies affect NEP at a much longer lag time than SST anomalies. These results highlight the role of land-atmosphere coupling in driving climate variability within the Amazon, and suggest that land atmospheric coupling may amplify and delay carbon cycle responses to ocean-atmosphere teleconnections.

Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S variations with El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, O.; Fukumori, I.; Lee, T.; Johnson, G. C.

2004-01-01

Temperature-Salinity (T-S) relationship variability in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5 degrees S ??degrees N, 150 degrees W ?? degrees W) over the last two decades is investigated using observational data and model simulation.

Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.

2018-01-01

This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.

Variability of foF2 in the African equatorial ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akala, A. O.; Oyeyemi, E. O.; Somoye, E. O.; Adeloye, A. B.; Adewale, A. O.

2010-06-01

This paper presents the impact of diurnal, seasonal and solar activity effects on the variability of ionospheric foF2 in the African equatorial latitude. Three African ionospheric stations; Dakar (14.8°N, 17.4°W, dip: 11.4°N), Ouagadougou (12.4°N, 1.5°W, dip: 2.8°N) and Djibouti (11.5°N, 42.8°E, dip: 7.2°N) were considered for the investigation. The overall aim is to provide African inputs that will be of assistance at improving existing forecasting models. The diurnal analysis revealed that the ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) is more susceptible to variability during the night-time than the day-time, with two peaks in the range; 18-38% during post-sunset hours and 35-55% during post-midnight hours. The seasonal and solar activity analyses showed a post-sunset September Equinox maximum and June Solstice maximum of foF2 variability in all the stations for all seasons. At all the stations, foF2 variability was high for low solar activity year. Overall, we concluded that equatorial foF2 variability increases with decreasing solar activity during night-time.

300 Years of East African Climate Variability from Oxygen Isotopes in a Kenya Coral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, R.

2003-04-01

Instrumental records of climate variability from the western Indian Ocean are relatively scarce and short. Here I present a monthly resolution stable isotopic record acquired from a large living coral head (Porites) from the Malindi Marine Reserve, Kenya (3^oS, 40^oE). The annual chronology is precise and is based on exceptionally clear high and low density growth band couplets. The record extends from 1696 to 1996 A.D., making it the longest coral climate record from the Indian Ocean and one of the longest available worldwide. We have analyzed the uppermost portion of the coral colony in triplicate, using 3 separate cores. This upper section, used for calibration purposes, also provides estimates of signal fidelity and noise in the climate recording system internal to the colony. Coral δ18O at this site primarily records SST; linear regression of monthly coral δ18O vs. SST yields a slope of -0.26 ppm δ18O per ^oC, and δ18O explains ˜57% of the SST variance. Additional isotopic variability may result from changes in seawater δ18O due to local runoff or regional evaporation/precipitation balance, but these changes are likely to be small because local rainfall δ18O is not strongly depleted relative to seawater and salinity gradients are small. The coral record indicates a clear warming trend of about 1.5^oC that accelerates in the latest 20th century, superimposed on strong decadal variability that persists throughout the record. In fact, δ18O values in the 1990's exceed the 300 year envelope (they are lower) and correspond with apparently unprecedented coral bleaching in coastal East Africa. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In general, East African SST and rainfall are better correlated with Pacific ENSO indicators than with the Indian Monsoon at all periods (inter-annual through multi-decadal) but the correlation weakens after 1975. One dramatic new result we report here is a strong indication of a major cool and dry period from 1750--1820 A.D. This is the single largest multi-decadal anomaly of the past 300 years and correlates perfectly in time with the historically and anecdotally defined Lapanarat Drought. Our results indicate a strong link between multi-decadal tropical cold SST anomalies And far-reaching continental droughts in East Africa. Causes and links to other climate recording systems will be explored. Interannual-decadal SST variations are strongly coherent with ENSO indices and other ENSO-sensitive coral records on decadal and interannual time scales. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Previous work has argued that this component likely reflects a monsoonal influence. However, decadal variance in both Malindi and Seychelles (Charles et al. 1997) coral records is more strongly coherent with ENSO indices than with the India or East Africa rain indices. The coherency of both coral records with Pacific indicators suggests instead that Indian Ocean variability reflects decadal ENSO-like variability originating in the Pacific. These records don't correlate significantly with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation implying a dominant role for the tropical Pacific (as opposed to extra-tropical regions) as a source of regional decadal variability in the western Indian Ocean. This work confirms that the tropical Pacific can act as an agent of decadal climate variability over a very large spatial scale.

A Strong High Altitude Narrow Jet At Saturn'S Equator From Cassini/ISS Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Melendo, Enrique; Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Legarreta, J.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Hueso, R.

2010-10-01

The intense equatorial eastward jets observed at cloud level in Jupiter and Saturn, represent a major challenge for geophysical fluid dynamics. Saturn's equatorial jet is of particular interest in view of its three dimensional structure, suspected large temporal variability, and related stratospheric semiannual oscillation. Here we report the discovery at the upper cloud level of an extremely narrow and strong jet centered in the middle of the broad equatorial jet. Previously published works on Saturn's equatorial winds at cloud level provided only a partial coverage. Automatic correlation of brightness scans and manually tracked cloud features, retrieved from images obtained by the Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS), show that the jet reaches 430 ms-1 with a peak speed difference of 180 ms-1 relative to nearby latitudes at 60 mbar and 390 ms-1 at depths > 500 mbar. Images were obtained in two filters: MT3, centred at the 889nm strong methane absorption band, and CB3 centred at the near infrared 939nm continuum, which are sensitive to different altitude levels at the upper clouds and hazes. Contrarily to what is observed in other latitudes, its velocity increases with altitude. Our findings helps to extend the view we have of the equatorial stratospheric dynamics of fast rotating planets beyond the best known terrestrial environment, and extract more general consequences of the interaction between waves and mean flow. It remains to be known if this equatorial jet structure, now determined in detail in three dimensions, is permanent or variable with the seasonal solar insolation cycle, including the variable shadow cast by the rings. EGM, ASL, JL, SPH, and RH have been funded by the Spanish MICIIN AYA2009-10701 with FEDER support and ASL, JL, SPH, and RH by Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07

Nutrient characteristics of the water masses and their seasonal variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Sardessai, S; Shetye, Suhas; Maya, M V; Mangala, K R; Prasanna Kumar, S

2010-01-01

Nutrient characteristics of four water masses in the light of their thermohaline properties are examined in the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean during winter, spring and summer monsoon. The presence of low salinity water mass with "Surface enrichments" of inorganic nutrients was observed relative to 20 m in the mixed layer. Lowest oxygen levels of 19 microM at 3 degrees N in the euphotic zone indicate mixing of low oxygen high salinity Arabian Sea waters with the equatorial Indian Ocean. The seasonal variability of nutrients was regulated by seasonally varying physical processes like thermocline elevation, meridional and zonal transport, the equatorial undercurrent and biological processes of uptake and remineralization. Circulation of Arabian Sea high salinity waters with nitrate deficit could also be seen from low N/P ratio with a minimum of 8.9 in spring and a maximum of 13.6 in winter. This large deviation from Redfield N/P ratio indicates the presence of denitrified high salinity waters with a seasonal nitrate deficit ranging from -4.85 to 1.52 in the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the day-to-day variation of the equatorial electrojet during quiet periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Y.; Richmond, A. D.; Maute, A.; Liu, H.-L.; Pedatella, N.; Sassi, F.

2014-08-01

It has been known for a long time that the equatorial electrojet varies from day to day even when solar and geomagnetic activities are very low. The quiet time day-to-day variation is considered to be due to irregular variability of the neutral wind, but little is known about how variable winds drive the electrojet variability. We employ a numerical model introduced by Liu et al. (2013), which takes into account weather changes in the lower atmosphere and thus can reproduce ionospheric variability due to forcing from below. The simulation is run for May and June 2009. Constant solar and magnetospheric energy inputs are used so that day-to-day changes will arise only from lower atmospheric forcing. The simulated electrojet current shows day-to-day variability of ±25%, which produces day-to-day variations in ground level geomagnetic perturbations near the magnetic equator. The current system associated with the day-to-day variation of the equatorial electrojet is traced based on a covariance analysis. The current pattern reveals return flow at both sides of the electrojet, in agreement with those inferred from ground-based magnetometer data in previous studies. The day-to-day variation in the electrojet current is compared with those in the neutral wind at various altitudes, latitudes, and longitudes. It is found that the electrojet variability is dominated by the zonal wind at 100-120 km altitudes near the magnetic equator. These results suggest that the response of the zonal polarization electric field to variable zonal winds is the main source of the day-to-day variation of the equatorial electrojet during quiet periods.

Modes of hurricane activity variability in the eastern Pacific: Implications for the 2016 season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucharel, Julien; Jin, Fei-Fei; England, Matthew H.; Lin, I. I.

2016-11-01

A gridded product of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the eastern Pacific is constructed to assess the dominant mode of tropical cyclone (TC) activity variability. Results of an empirical orthogonal function decomposition and regression analysis of environmental variables indicate that the two dominant modes of ACE variability (40% of the total variance) are related to different flavors of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first mode, more active during the later part of the hurricane season (September-November), is linked to the eastern Pacific El Niño through the delayed oceanic control associated with the recharge-discharge mechanism. The second mode, dominant in the early months of the hurricane season, is related to the central Pacific El Niño mode and the associated changes in atmospheric variability. A multilinear regression forecast model of the dominant principal components of ACE variability is then constructed. The wintertime subsurface state of the eastern equatorial Pacific (characterizing ENSO heat discharge), the east-west tilt of the thermocline (describing ENSO phase transition), the anomalous ocean surface conditions in the TC region in spring (portraying atmospheric changes induced by persistence of local surface anomalies), and the intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the western Pacific are found to be good predictors of TC activity. Results complement NOAA's official forecast by providing additional spatial and temporal information. They indicate a more active 2016 season ( 2 times the ACE mean) with a spatial expansion into the central Pacific associated with the heat discharge from the 2015/2016 El Niño.

ENSO Prediction in the NASA GMAO GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovach, R. M.; Borovikov, A.; Marshak, J.; Pawson, S.; Vernieres, G.

2016-12-01

Seasonal-to-Interannual coupled forecasts are conducted in near-real time with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). A 30-year suite of 9-month hindcasts is available, initialized with the MERRA-Ocean, MERRA-Land, and MERRA atmospheric fields. These forecasts are used to predict the timing and magnitude of ENSO and other short-term climate variability. The 2015 El Niño peaked in November 2015 and was considered a "very strong" event with the Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies higher than 2.0 °C. These very strong temperature anomalies began in Sep/Oct/Nov (SON) of 2015 and persisted through Dec/Jan/Feb (DJF) of 2016. The other two very strong El Niño events recently recorded occurred in 1981/82 and 1997/98. The GEOS-5 system began predicting a very strong El Niño for SON starting with the March 2015 forecast. At this time, the GMAO forecast was an outlier in both the NMME and IRI multi-model ensemble prediction plumes. The GMAO May 2015 forecast for the November 2015 peak in temperature anomaly in the Niño3.4 region was in excellent agreement with the real event, but in May this forecast was still one of the outliers in the multi-model forecasts. The GEOS-5 May 2015 forecast also correctly predicted the weakening of the Eastern Pacific (Niño1+2) anomalies for SON. We will present a summary of the NASA GMAO GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System skills based on historic hindcasts. Initial conditions, prediction of ocean surface and subsurface evolution for the 2015/16 El Niño will be compared to the 1998/97 event. GEOS-5 capability to predict the precipitation, i.e. to model the teleconnection patterns associated with El Niño will also be shown. To conclude, we will highlight some new developments in the GEOS forecasting system.

The Evolution of El Nino-Precipitation Relationships from Satellites and Gauges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.

Decadal fluctuations in the western Pacific recorded by long precipitation records in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wan-Ru; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Guan, Biing T.

2018-03-01

A 110-year precipitation record in Taiwan, located at the western edge of the subtropical North Pacific, depicts a pronounced quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO). The QDO in Taiwan exhibits a fluctuating relationship with the similar decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, known as the Pacific QDO. A regime change was observed around 1960, such that the decadal variation of Taiwan's precipitation became more synchronized with the Pacific QDO's coupled evolutions of SST and atmospheric circulation than before, while the underlying pattern of the Pacific QOD did not change. Using long-term reanalysis data and CMIP5 single-forcing experiments, the presented analysis suggests that increased SST in the subtropical western Pacific and the strengthened western extension of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone may have collectively enhanced the relationship between the Taiwan precipitation and the Pacific QDO. This finding provides possible clues to similar regime changes in quasi-decadal variability observed around the western Pacific rim.

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Sung, Mi-Kyung; An, Soon-II; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kug, Jong-Seong

2014-01-01

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

QBO Modulation of the Mesopause Gravity Wave Momentum Flux over Tierra del Fuego

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Wit, R. J.; Janches, D.; Fritts, D. C.; Hibbins, R. E.

2016-01-01

The interannual variability of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) gravity wave momentum flux over southern mid latitudes (53.7degS) has been studied using more than 7 years of meteor radar observations at Ro Grande, Argentina. A modulation, with periods similar to that of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), is observed in the vertical flux of zonal as well as meridional momentum. The QBO signal is largest in the zonal component during summer and is in phase with the stratospheric QBO at 50 hPa (approx. 21 km). The relation between the stratospheric QBO and the QBO modulation in the MLT gravity wave forcing (derived from the divergence of the momentum flux) was found to be consistent with that expected from the Holton-Tan effect coupled to the interhemispheric coupling mechanism. These results provide the first observational support for the existence of the midlatitude gravity wave forcing anomalies as hypothesized in the interhemispheric coupling mechanism.

Month-to-month variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in 2016: role of the Indo-Pacific climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Du, Yan; Gopinath, K.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Singh, Prem

2018-03-01

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during 2016 exhibited a prominent month-to-month fluctuations over India, with below normal rainfall in June and August and above normal rainfall in July. The factors determining the month-to-month fluctuations in ISM rainfall during 2016 are investigated with main focus on the Indo-Pacific climatic anomalies. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with super El Niño 2015 disappeared by early summer 2016 over the central and eastern Pacific. On the other hand, negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) like SST anomaly pattern over the equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) are reported in summer 2016 concurrently with decaying El Niño/developing La Niña phase. Observations revealed that the low rainfall over central north India in June is due to moisture divergence caused by the westward extension of ridge corresponding to WNP anticyclone and subsidence induced by local Hadley cell partly related to negative IOD. Low level convergence of southeasterly wind from Bay of Bengal associated with weak WNP anticyclone and northwesterly wind corresponding to anticyclonic circulation over the northwest India remarkably contributed to positive rainfall in July over most of the Indian subcontinent. While reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent in August 2016 is associated with the anomalous moisture transport from ISM region to WNP region, in contrast to July, due to local cyclogenesis corroborated by number of tropical cyclones in the WNP. In addition to this, subsidence related to strong convection supported by cyclonic circulation over the WNP also resulted in low rainfall over the ISM region. Coupled General Circulation model sensitivity experiments confirmed that strong convective activities associated with cyclonic circulation over the WNP is primarily responsible for the observed negative ISM rainfall anomalies in August 2016. It is noted that the Indo-Western Pacific circulation anomalies in August 2016 are well predicted when the coupled model is initiated with initial conditions from end of July and beginning of August compared to May. This analysis suggests the importance of the WNP circulation in forcing strong sub-seasonal/month to month rainfall variations over India.

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2002-01-01

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Equatorial Scintillation Study at Ilorin and Nsukka, Nigeria during Year 2011-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akala, A.

2017-12-01

This study presents GNSS scintillations over Ilorin (8.48 oN, 4.54 oE, and mag lat: 1.83oS) and Nsukka (6.84 oN, 7.37 oE, and mag lat: 2.94oS), Nigeria during year 2011-2012. The two stations are located within the inner flank of the equatorial ionization anomaly. Firstly, we investigated the climatology of equatorial scintillations at the two stations. We suppressed multipath effects on the data by imposing a 300 elevation masking on the data. In addition, we investigated scintillation occurrences at the two locations on a satellite-by-satellite basis at varying elevation angles. The source of scintillation records at low-elevation angle is attributed to multipath, while that at high-elevation angle is attributed to ionospheric irregularities. Seasonally, scintillations recorded highest occurrences during March equinox, and the least during June solstice. The trend of scintillations, at both low- and high-elevation angles at the two stations were almost the same. EGNOS satellites signals scintillated at the two locations during the time intervals when GPS satellites signals experienced scintillations. These results could support the development of scintillation models for equatorial Africa, and could also be of benefit to GPS and EGNOS service providers and designers, with a view to providing robust services for GNSS user community in Africa.

Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo

2003-01-01

The influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air-sea interaction in the Indian-western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950-99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted.Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anomaly pattern in the IWP sector several months after the peak in ENSO forcing in DTEP. In most parts of the IWP region, the net SST tendency induced by atmospheric changes has the same polarity as the local composite SST anomaly, thus indicating that the atmospheric forcing acts to reinforce the underlying SST signal.By analyzing the output from a suite of auxiliary experiments, it is demonstrated that the SST perturbations in IWP (which are primarily generated by ENSO-related atmospheric changes) can, in turn, exert notable influences on the atmospheric conditions over that region. This feedback mechanism also plays an important role in the eastward migration of the subtropical anticyclones over the western Pacific in both hemispheres.

Future changes in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation projected by the CNRM-CM5 model under the RCP 8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Jiangyu; Li, Jianying

2017-04-01

The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is the predominant intraseasonal variability in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, representing the canonical northward and northwestward propagating convective components over South Asia (SA) and East Asia/western North Pacific (EA/WNP) sectors in conjunction with eastward propagating convective anomalies. The objective of this study is to assess possible changes of the 30-60-day BSISO in future global warming condition by comparing the twentieth century simulation with the twenty-first century projection produced by the CNRM-CM5 model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario. In response to the increase of sea surface temperature in the tropical and subtropical Indian and Pacific Oceans, the saturation specific humidity in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) increases by about 16%, providing more moisture and moist static energy for tropical convection. Thus, the BSISO will be intensified, with large-amplitude events prevailing in a broader range of the Indo-Pacific region. The convective signal will initiate over more westward parts of the Indian Ocean and decay over the more eastward tropical Pacific. As the strengthening of northward propagations over the SA and EA/WNP sectors is intimately related to equatorial enhanced convective anomalies, the enhanced convective anomalies are accompanied by stronger ascents on the top of the PBL, together with the wetter seasonal-mean PBL background, resulting in stronger northward propagation through moisture mechanisms. Moreover, due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the low-level atmosphere, the phase speeds of SASM and EA/WNP northward propagation will decrease.

Changes in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation projected by the CNRM-CM5 model under the RCP 8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

2016-12-01

The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is the predominant intraseasonal variability in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, representing the canonical northward and northwestward propagating convective components over South Asia (SA) and East Asia/western North Pacific (EA/WNP) sectors in conjunction with eastward propagating convective anomalies. The objective of this study is to assess possible changes of the 30-60-day BSISO in future global warming condition by comparing the twentieth century simulation with the twenty-first century projection produced by the CNRM-CM5 model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario. In response to the increase of sea surface temperature in the tropical and subtropical Indian and Pacific Oceans, the saturation specific humidity in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) increases by about 16 %, providing more moisture and moist static energy for tropical convection. Thus, the BSISO will be intensified, with large-amplitude events prevailing in a broader range of the Indo-Pacific region. The convective signal will initiate over more westward parts of the Indian Ocean and decay over the more eastward tropical Pacific. As the strengthening of northward propagations over the SA and EA/WNP sectors is intimately related to equatorial enhanced convective anomalies, the enhanced convective anomalies are accompanied by stronger ascents on the top of the PBL, together with the wetter seasonal-mean PBL background, resulting in stronger northward propagations through moisture mechanisms. Moreover, due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the low-level atmosphere, the phase speeds of SASM and EA/WNP northward propagation will decrease.

A Centennial Episode of Weak East Asian Summer Monsoon in the Midst of the Medieval Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, C.; Liu, J.; Wang, B.; Wang, Z.; Yan, M.

2017-12-01

Recent paleo-proxy evidences suggested that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was generally strong (i.e., northern China wet and southern China dry) during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 9th to the mid-13th century), however, there was a centennial period (around 11th century) during which the EASM was weak. This study aims to explore the causes of this centennial weak EASM episode and in general, what controls the centennial variability of the EASM in the pre-industrial period of AD 501-1850. With the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a suit of control and forced experiments were conducted for the past 2000 years. The model run with all external forcings simulates a warm period of EA from AD 801-1250 with a generally increased summer mean precipitation over the northern EA; however, during the 11th century (roughly from AD 980 to AD 1100), the EASM is significantly weaker than the other periods during the MWP. We find that on the multi-decadal to centennial time scale, a strong EASM is associated with a La Nina-like Indo-Pacific warming and the opposite is also true. This sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern represents the leading EOF mode of centennial SST variations, and it is primarily forced by the solar radiation and volcanic activity, whereas the land use/land cover and greenhouse gases as well as internal dynamics play a negligible role. During the MWP, the solar forcing plays a dominate role in supporting the SST variation as the volcanic activity is weak. The weakening of the EASM during the AD 980-1100 is attributed to the relatively low solar radiation, which leads to a prevailing El Nino-like Indo-Pacific cooling with strongest cooling occurring in the equatorial western Pacific. The suppressed convection over the equatorial western Pacific directly induces a Philippine Sea anticyclone anomaly, which increases southern China precipitation, meanwhile suppresses Philippine Sea precipitation, exciting a meridional teleconnection that induces anomalous northerly winds and dry conditions over the northern China, weakening the EASM.

Assessment of Ionospheric Spatial Decorrelation for CAT I GBAS in Equatorial Region at Nominal days: Data Selection and Bias Removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H.; Lee, J.

2017-12-01

Ground-based augmentations of global positioning system (GBAS) provide the user with the integrity parameter, standard deviation of vertical ionospheric gradient (σvig), to ensure integrity. σvig value currently available in CAT I GBAS is derived from the data collected from the reference stations located on the US mainland and have a value of 4 mm/km. However, since the equatorial region near the geomagnetic equator is relatively more active in the ionosphere than the mid-latitude region, there is a limit to applying σvig used in the mid-latitude region on the equatorial region. Also, since the ionospheric phenomena of daytime and nighttime in the equatorial region are significantly different, it is necessary to apply σvig whilst distinguishing the time zone. This study presents a method for obtaining standard deviation of vertical ionospheric gradient in the equatorial region at nominal days considering the equatorial ionosphere environment. We used the data collected from the Brazilian region near the geomagnetic equator in the nominal days. One of the distinguishing features of the equatorial ionosphere environment from the mid-latitude ionosphere environment is that the scintillation event occurs frequently. Therefore, the days used for the analysis were selected not only by geomagnetic indexes Kp (Planetary K index) and Dst (Disturbance storm index), but also by S4 (Scintillation index) which indicates scintillation event. In addition, unlike the ionospheric delay bias elimination method used in the mid-latitude region, the `Long-term ionospheric anomaly monitor (LTIAM)' used in this study utilized the bias removal method that applies different bias removal standards according to IPP (Ionospheric pierce point) distance in consideration of ionospheric activity. As a result, σvig values which are conservative enough to bound ionosphere spatial decorrelation for the equatorial region in nominal days are 8 mm/km for daytime and 19 mm/km for nighttime. Therefore, for CAT I GBAS operation in the equatorial region, σvig value that is twice as large as the σvig provided in the mid-latitude region needs to be applied in daytime, and the σvig value about two times greater than the σvig of daytime needs to be applied in nighttime.

Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, Marisol; Vera, C. S.

2017-10-01

This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to those associated with the signal, especially at the extratropics.

Mechanical Mixing and Metamorphism of Mafic and Ultramafic Lithologies during Mylonisis at the ST. Paul Transform System, Mid-Atlantic Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adrião, Á.; Maia, M.; Hemond, C.; Kaczmarek, M. A.; Briais, A.; Vincent, C.; Brunelli, D.

2017-12-01

The St. Paul Transform System offsets by 630 km the Equatorial Mid Atlantic Ridge at 1° N. It consists of four major faults separating three intra transform ridge axes. This region shows a transition from a transpressive, hot spot affected, regional-scale shear zone to the North to a region dominated by a particular oceanic core complex spreading to the South (Vincent et al., this congress). Samples collected in the region during the COLMEIA cruise (Maia et al., 2016) were studied for textures and whole-rock major and trace element contents. All samples experienced pervasive deformation at ductile to brittle conditions overprinted by late low-T alteration. Mylonitic and ultramylonitic rocks can be grouped in three main types: peridotitic, gabbroic and talc-chlorite schist. Peridotitic ultramylonites preserve few opx, cpx and sp porphyroclasts; they have homogeneous nano-micro grain size groundmass, banded foliation and late amphibole and sulfide crystallization. Locally S-C fabric overprints the mylonitic texture. Micro cracks, filled with serpentine, chlorite and oxides are common, as well fluid inclusions trails in olivine and plagioclase crystals of peridotite and gabbros respectively. Major and trace element content of the peridotitic mylonites plot in the depleted field of the abyssal peridotites; however, they present marked LREE enrichment and Eu positive anomaly. Gabbroic and talc-chlorite mylonites display REE-enriched patterns (up to 100x CI) and variable Eu anomalies. Major elements show a remarkable linear trend in the talc-chlorite group suggesting mixing of pure talc and chlorite end-members. These compositional characteristics suggest variable assimilation of MORB and E-MORB during mylonisis or early melt-rock interaction and hydrothermal evolution at variable metamorphic conditions. Vincent et al., 2017. Particular Oceanic Core Complex evolution …; this congress Maia et al., 2016. Extreme mantle uplift and exhumation ... Nat. Geo. doi:10.1038/ngeo2759

Variability of the productive habitat in the eastern equatorial Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feldman, Gene Carl

1986-01-01

It is shown that satellite ocean color data can be used to define the spatial extent of the region of enhanced biological production (the productive habitat) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The degree of interannual variability in the areal extent of the productive habitat and in the estimated primary production of the region is determined. Frequency distributions of satellite-derived pigment concentrations are used to determine whether major changes in phytoplankton biomass have taken place from one period to the next.

Equatorial Scintillation of Satellite Signals and some Drift Characteristics of the Scintillation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-15

of the main objectives of the program was to investigate the ~. drift characteristics of equatorial scintillation, other aspects of the scin ...Maximum scin - tillation intensity frequently occurred long after the maximum drift vel oci ty. The amount of delay was quite variable, however. It could

Understanding multidecadal variability in ENSO amplitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2013-12-01

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific vary as a result of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere driven largely by the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO has a large impact on the local climate and hydrology of the tropical Pacific, as well as broad-reaching effects on global climate. ENSO amplitude is known to vary on long timescales, which makes it very difficult to quantify its response to climate change and constrain the physical processes that drive it. In order to assess the extent of unforced multidecadal changes in ENSO variability, a linear regression of local SST changes is applied to the GFDL CM2.1 model 4000-yr pre-industrial control run. The resulting regression coefficient strengths, which represent the sensitivity of SST changes to thermocline depth and zonal wind stress, vary by up to a factor of 2 on multi-decadal time scales. This long-term modulation in ocean-atmosphere coupling is highly correlated with ENSO variability, but do not explain the reasons for such variability. Variation in the relationship between SST changes and wind stress points to a role for changing stratification in the central equatorial Pacific in modulating ENSO amplitudes with stronger stratification reducing the response to winds. The main driving mechanism we have identified for higher ENSO variance are changes in the response of zonal winds to SST anomalies. The shifting convection and precipitation patterns associated with the changing state of the atmosphere also contribute to the variability of the regression coefficients. These mechanisms drive much of the variability in ENSO amplitude and hence ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific.

Seasonal variability of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) in recent high-top CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Dzaki; Lubis, Sandro W.; Setiawan, Sonni

2018-05-01

Tropical weather system is controlled by periodic atmospheric disturbances ranging from daily to subseasonal time scales. One of the most prominent atmospheric disturbances in the tropics is convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). CCEWs are excited by latent heating due to a large-scale convective system and have a significant influence on weather system. They include atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave, Mixed Rossby Gravity (MRG) wave, Equatorial Rossby (ER) wave and Tropical Depression (TD-type) wave. In this study, we will evaluate the seasonal variability of CCEWs activity in nine high-top CMIP5 models, including their spatial distribution in the troposphere. Our results indicate that seasonal variability of Kelvin waves is well represented in MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR, with maximum activity occurring during boreal spring. The seasonal variability of MRG waves is well represented in CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR, with maximum activity observed during boreal summer. On the other hand, ER waves are well captured by IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR and maximize during boreal fall; while TD-type waves, with maximum activity observed during boreal summer, are well observed in CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR. Our results indicate that the skill of CMIP5 models in representing seasonal variability of CCEWs highly depends on the convective parameterization and the spatial or vertical resolution used by each model.

Evolutionary stasis in pollen morphogenesis due to natural selection.

PubMed

Matamoro-Vidal, Alexis; Prieu, Charlotte; Furness, Carol A; Albert, Béatrice; Gouyon, Pierre-Henri

2016-01-01

The contribution of developmental constraints and selective forces to the determination of evolutionary patterns is an important and unsolved question. We test whether the long-term evolutionary stasis observed for pollen morphogenesis (microsporogenesis) in eudicots is due to developmental constraints or to selection on a morphological trait shaped by microsporogenesis: the equatorial aperture pattern. Most eudicots have three equatorial apertures but several taxa have independently lost the equatorial pattern and have microsporogenesis decoupled from aperture pattern determination. If selection on the equatorial pattern limits variation, we expect to see increased variation in microsporogenesis in the nonequatorial clades. Variation of microsporogenesis was studied using phylogenetic comparative analyses in 83 species dispersed throughout eudicots including species with and without equatorial apertures. The species that have lost the equatorial pattern have highly variable microsporogenesis at the intra-individual and inter-specific levels regardless of their pollen morphology, whereas microsporogenesis remains stable in species with the equatorial pattern. The observed burst of variation upon loss of equatorial apertures shows that there are no strong developmental constraints precluding variation in microsporogenesis, and that the stasis is likely to be due principally to selective pressure acting on pollen morphogenesis because of its implication in the determination of the equatorial aperture pattern. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

2018-02-01

Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

Bimodality and regime behavior in atmosphere-ocean interactions during the recent climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah, Bijan; Sodoudi, Sahar

2015-06-01

Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) and isometric feature mapping (Isomap) are applied to investigate the spatio-temporal atmosphere-ocean interactions otherwise hidden in observational data for the period of 1979-2010. Despite an established long-term surface warming trend for the whole northern hemisphere, sea surface temperatures (SST) in the East Pacific have remained relatively constant for the period of 2001-2010. Our analysis reveals that SST anomaly probability density function of the leading two Isomap components is bimodal. We conclude that Isomap shows the existence of two distinct regimes in surface ocean temperature, resembling the break and active phases of rainfall over equatorial land areas. These regimes occurred within two separated time windows during the past three decades. Strengthening of trade winds over Pacific was coincident with the cold phase of east equatorial Pacific. This pattern was reversed during the warm phase of east equatorial Pacific. The El Niño event of 1997/1998 happened within the transition mode between these two regimes and may be a trigger for the SST changes in the Pacific. Furthermore, we suggest that Isomap, compared with MCA, provides more information about the behavior and predictability of the inter-seasonal atmosphere-ocean interactions.

Quasi-biennial modulation of the Northern Hemisphere tropopause height and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; PeñA-Ortiz, C.; AñEl, J. A.; Gimeno, L.; de la Torre, L.; Gallego, D.

2008-04-01

The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the tropopause pressure and temperature is studied through the application of the multitaper-singular value decomposition method (MTM-SVD). Reanalysis data (ERA-40) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and radiosonde data from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) covering the period 1979-1999 are used. The results show a strong response of the height and temperature of the tropopause to the QBO not limited to the equatorial latitudes but affecting the entire Northern Hemisphere. A cooling (warming) of the tropopause temperature over polar (equatorial) latitudes during a QBO positive phase is observed, being particularly noticeable over polar latitudes. The anomalies in the tropopause height confirm these results, with the tropopause being at higher (lower) levels in polar (equatorial) latitudes during QBO positive phase. Results for the QBO negative phase are of opposite sign. We also found that the results obtained using raw radiosonde data and reanalysis are in very good agreement. Finally, the evolution of the mass stream function through a QBO cycle is used to justify the differences observed in the evolution of the tropopause characteristics at low and high latitudes through the QBO cycle.

Observations of and Influences on Low-Latitude Vertical Plasma Drifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, E. S.; Chartier, A.; Paxton, L. J.

2016-12-01

Many workers have suggested that the morphology (position and relative intensities) of the crests of the equatorial ionization anomaliesis related to the time history of the equatorial vertical drift. In this work, we compare observations of the vertical drift using an HF radiosignals of opportunity in the Central Pacific with UV 135.6-nm observations of the equatorial anomalies from the DMSP/SSUSI andTIMED/GUVI instruments. Furthermore, we explore the role of E region density in modulating the vertical plasma drift using a passive HFsounding experiment in the Caribbean. Coupling between nighttime medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) and sporadic-Elayers has been suggested as a growth-rate-increasing process. While we observe sporadic-E in the local hemisphere coincident to increases in thealtitude of the F-region altitude, we also observe uplifts without sporadic-E in the local hemisphere. Apart from the trivial explanation that sporadic-E is occurring in the conjugate hemisphere, another possible explanation is that the E region may enhance the vertical drift, but is not required to produce enhanced vertical drifts. These studies represent fruitful areas of future intersection between ground-based observations and ICON and GOLD science.

Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Mendes, David; Spyrides, Maria H. C.; Pedra, George U.; Lucio, Paulo S.

2017-09-01

A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the filtered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The first two MCA modes, which were used to create the { MITB}_1 and { MITB}_2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Coral-inferred Variability of Upstream Kuroshio Current from 1953-2004 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Yi, L.; Shen, C. C.; Hsin, Y. C.

2016-12-01

The Kuroshio Current (KC), one of the most important western boundary currents in the North Pacific Ocean, strongly impacts regional climate in East Asia and upper-ocean thermal structure. However, the responses of KC to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to lacking of long-term KC observations. Here, we present a sea surface temperature (SST) record from 1953 to 2004 AD derived from monthly skeletal δ18O data of a living coral Porites core, drilled in Nanwan, southern Taiwan (22°N, 121°E), located on the western front of the Upstream KC. The increased/reduced Kuroshio transport would generate stronger/weaker upwelling in Southern Taiwan, which can cause lower/higher SST. Agreement between dynamics of interannual coral δ18O and modern KC data shows that the regional coral δ18O can be used as a promising proxy for Upstream KC intensity. The KC-induced SST anomaly record reveals prominent interannual and decadal variability predominantly controlled by the bifurcation latitude of North Equatorial Current. We also find that the reconstructed KC intensity at east of Taiwan and south of Japan have nearly simultaneous interannual changes, suggesting the same dominant forcing(s) for the entire KC system. Additional work is needed to understand the KC system with respect to the interannual to decadal climate variability and the influences of global warming.

Late Neogene Orbitally-Forced Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific as Measured by Uk'37 and TEX86

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, K. T.; Pearson, A.; Castañeda, I. S.; Peterson, L.

2017-12-01

Key features of late Neogene climate remain uncertain due to conflicting records derived from different sea surface temperature (SST) proxies. To resolve these disputes, it is necessary to explore both the consistencies and differences between paleotemperature estimates from critical oceanographic regimes. Here, we report orbital-scale climate variability at ODP Site 846 in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) in the interval from 5-6 Ma using alkenone and TEX86 temperature estimates. Results from both proxies are very similar in their secular trends and magnitude of long-term temperature change; and spectral analysis demonstrates that the records are coherent and in-phase or nearly in-phase in both the obliquity and precession bands. However, we find that the temperatures reconstructed by TEX86 are consistently offset towards colder values by 2ºC with orbital-scale variations approximately twice the amplitude of the Uk'37 derived estimates. Both temperature records are antiphased - i.e. "colder" - at higher sediment alkenone concentrations, a qualitative indicator of increased glacial productivity. Temperature differences between the proxies are accentuated during glacial intervals in contrasts to modern observations of EEP surface and subsurface temperatures, which show that thermocline temperatures are fairly stable, and thus by analogy, glacial cooling and/or enhanced upwelling should have reduced rather than accentuated temperature gradients in the upper water column. Therefore, arguments that Uk'37 corresponds to temperature variability in the surface, while TEX86 responds to the subsurface, may be too simplistic. Instead, it appears generally true that high-productivity environments, including the EEP, tend to have negative TEX86 anomalies. This may reflect a dual dependence of TEX86 records on both water column temperature and local productivity. Overall, our data suggest that in the EEP and likely in other upwelling zones, paleotemperature data derived from these proxies should not necessarily be used interchangeably and only Uk'37 is suitable for determining absolute SSTs. However, our data also suggest that TEX86 may be suitable for estimating long-term trends in SST and for spectral and phase analysis in upwelling regimes.

Investigating Perturbation Electric Fields and Their Effects on the Coupled Low-, Mid- and High-latitude Ionosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-14

stream (SAPS) E field had been strong. During these E field events, the repeated development of equatorial ionization anomaly ( EIA ), storm-enhanced...density (SED) bulge and SED plume occurred in those longitude sectors that covered the local dusk-midnight hours. Thus, a well-formed EIA - SED...Observational results and CTIPe simulated wind vector maps suggest that 1) the enhanced growth of the EIA transported solar produced plasma to the

An investigation of the ionospheric F region near the EIA crest in India using OI 777.4 and 630.0 nm nightglow observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parihar, Navin; Radicella, Sandro Maria; Nava, Bruno; Migoya-Orue, Yenca Olivia; Tiwari, Prabhakar; Singh, Rajesh

2018-05-01

Simultaneous observations of OI 777.4 and OI 630.0 nm nightglow emissions were carried at a low-latitude station, Allahabad (25.5° N, 81.9° E; geomag. lat. ˜ 16.30° N), located near the crest of the Appleton anomaly in India during September-December 2009. This report attempts to study the F region of ionosphere using airglow-derived parameters. Using an empirical approach put forward by Makela et al. (2001), firstly, we propose a novel technique to calibrate OI 777.4 and 630.0 nm emission intensities using Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate/Formosa Satellite Mission 3 (COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3) electron density profiles. Next, the electron density maximum (Nm) and its height (hmF2) of the F layer have been derived from the information of two calibrated intensities. Nocturnal variation of Nm showed the signatures of the retreat of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and the midnight temperature maximum (MTM) phenomenon that are usually observed in the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere. Signatures of gravity waves with time periods in the range of 0.7-3.0 h were also seen in Nm and hmF2 variations. Sample Nm and hmF2 maps have also been generated to show the usefulness of this technique in studying ionospheric processes.

Circulation, eddies, oxygen and nutrient changes in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czeschel, R.; Stramma, L.; Weller, R. A.; Fischer, T.

2014-09-01

A large, subsurface oxygen deficiency zone is located in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean (ETSP). The large-scale circulation in the eastern equatorial Pacific and off Peru in November/December 2012 shows the influence of the equatorial current system, the eastern boundary currents, and the northern reaches of the subtropical gyre. In November 2012 the Equatorial Undercurrent is centered at 250 m depth, deeper than in earlier observations. In December 2012 the equatorial water is transported southeastward near the shelf in the Peru-Chile Undercurrent with a mean transport of 1.6 Sv. In the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) the flow is overlaid with strong eddy activity on the poleward side of the OMZ. Floats with parking depth at 400 m show fast westward flow in the mid-depth equatorial channel and sluggish flow in the OMZ. Floats with oxygen sensors clearly show the passage of eddies with oxygen anomalies. The long-term float observations in the upper ocean lead to a net community production estimate at about 18° S of up to 16.7 mmol C m-3 yr1 extrapolated to an annual rate and 7.7 mmol C m-3 yr-1 for the time period below the mixed layer. Oxygen differences between repeated ship sections are influenced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, by the phase of El Niño, by seasonal changes, and by eddies and hence have to be interpreted with care. At and south of the equator the decrease in oxygen in the upper ocean since 1976 is related to an increase in nitrate, phosphate, and in part in silicate.

Circulation, eddies, oxygen, and nutrient changes in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czeschel, R.; Stramma, L.; Weller, R. A.; Fischer, T.

2015-06-01

A large subsurface oxygen deficiency zone is located in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean (ETSP). The large-scale circulation in the eastern equatorial Pacific and off the coast of Peru in November/December 2012 shows the influence of the equatorial current system, the eastern boundary currents, and the northern reaches of the subtropical gyre. In November 2012 the equatorial undercurrent (EUC) is centered at 250 m depth, deeper than in earlier observations. In December 2012, the equatorial water is transported southeastward near the shelf in the Peru-Chile undercurrent (PCUC) with a mean transport of 1.4 Sv. In the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), the flow is overlaid with strong eddy activity on the poleward side of the OMZ. Floats with parking depth at 400 m show fast westward flow in the mid-depth equatorial channel and sluggish flow in the OMZ. Floats with oxygen sensors clearly show the passage of eddies with oxygen anomalies. The long-term float observations in the upper ocean lead to a net community production estimate at about 18° S of up to 16.7 mmol C m-3 yr-1 extrapolated to an annual rate and 7.7 mmol C m-3 yr-1 for the time period below the mixed layer. Oxygen differences between repeated ship sections are influenced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), by the phase of El Niño, by seasonal changes, and by eddies, and hence have to be interpreted with care. At and south of the Equator the decrease in oxygen in the upper ocean since 1976 is related to an increase in nitrate, phosphate, and in part silicate.

Impact of tropical cyclones on the intensity and phase propagation of fall Wyrtki jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreenivas, P.; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2012-11-01

Observations and model simulations are used to study the impact of tropical cyclones (TC) on the fall Wyrtki jets (WJ). These strong narrow equatorial currents peak during November and play a vital role in the energy and mass transport in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Maximum number of TCs is observed over TIO during November with longer than normal life span (8-15 days). These TCs enhance equatorial westerly winds (surface) and amplify monthly mean WJs (both at surface and subsurface) by 0.4 ms-1 (anomalies exceed 0.7 ms-1 during TC), which is about half of the climatological amplitude. Intensified WJs increase the heat content of eastern TIO and modulate air-sea interaction. It is also shown that movement of TCs is mainly responsible for the westward phase propagation of WJs, a previously unexplored mechanism. These features are evident in ECCO2 simulations as well.

Spatial and Temporal Coherence of SeaWiFS Chlorophyll Concentration Anomalies in the North Atlantic Bloom (1998-2005) Examined with Giovanni

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acker, James G.

2006-01-01

The availability of climatological chlorophyll-a concentration data products from the SeaWiFS mission spanning the eight-year mission period allowed the creation of a climatological anomaly analysis function in Giovanni, the GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and ANalysis Infrastructure. This study utilizes the Giovanni anomaly analysis function to examine mesoscale anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean during the springtime North Atlantic Bloom. This examination indicates that areas exhibiting positive anomalies and areas exhibiting negative anomalies are coherent over significant spatial scales, with relatively abrupt boundaries between areas with positive and negative anomalies. Year-to-year variability in anomaly "intensity" can be caused by either variability in the temporal occurrence of the bloom peak or by variability in the peak chlorophyll concentration in a particular area. The study will also discuss the feasibility of combining chlorophyll anomaly analysis with other data types.

Comparison of Measurements from Pressure-recording Inverted Echo Sounders and Satellite Altimetry in the North Equatorial Current Region of the Western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeon, Chanhyung; Park, Jae-Hun; Kim, Dong Guk; Kim, Eung; Jeon, Dongchull

2018-04-01

An array of 5 pressure-recording inverted echo sounders (PIESs) was deployed along the Jason-2 214 ground track in the North Equatorial Current (NEC) region of the western Pacific Ocean for about 2 years from June 2012. Round-trip acoustic travel time from the bottom to the sea surface and bottom pressure measurements from PIES were converted to sea level anomaly (SLA). AVISO along-track mono-mission SLA (Mono-SLA), reference mapped SLA (Ref-MSLA), and up-to-date mapped SLA (Upd-MSLA) products were used for comparison with PIESderived SLA (η tot). Comparisons of η tot with Mono-SLA revealed that hump artifact errors significantly contaminate the Mono-SLA. Differences of η tot from both Ref-MSLA and Upd-MSLA decreased as the hump errors were reduced in mapped SLA products. Comparisons of Mono-SLA measurements at crossover points of ground tracks near the observation sites revealed large differences though the time differences of their measurements were only 1.53 and 4.58 days. Comparisons between Mono-SLA and mapped SLA suggested that mapped SLA smooths out the hump artifact errors by taking values between the two discrepant Mono-SLA measurements at the crossover points. Consequently, mapped SLA showed better agreement with η tot at our observation sites. AVISO mapped sea surface height (SSH) products are the preferable dataset for studying SSH variability in the NEC region of the western Pacific, though some portions of hump artifact errors seem to still remain in them.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

Solar and lunar tidal variabilities in GPS-TEC and geomagnetic field variations: Seasonal as well as during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, S.

2017-04-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) deduced total electron content (TEC) data at 15°N (geomagnetic), which is the northern crest region of equatorial ionization anomaly, are used to study solar and lunar tidal variabilities during the years 2008 and 2009 and also during the 2009-2010 winter, when a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has occurred. The diurnal and semidiurnal tidal amplitudes show semiannual variation with maximum amplitudes during February-March and September-November, whereas terdiurnal tide is larger during April-September. They show significant longitudinal variability with larger (smaller) amplitudes over 250°E-150°E (200°E-250°E). Lunar semidiurnal tidal amplitudes show sporadic enhancements during northern winter months and negligible amplitudes during northern summer months. They also show notable longitudinal variabilities. The solar migrating tides DW1 and SW2 show semiannual variation with larger amplitudes during spring equinox months, whereas TW3 maximizes during northern summer. DW2 shows larger amplitudes during summer months. During the SSW, except TW3, the migrating tides DW1 and SW2 show considerable enhancements. Among solar nonmigrating tides, SW1, TW2, and DS0 show larger enhancements. Solar tides in TEC and equatorial electrojet strength over Tirunelveli vary with the time scale of 60 days during October 2009-March 2010 similar to ozone mass mixing ratio at 10 hPa, and this confirms the vital role of ozone in tidal variabilities in ionospheric parameters. Lunar tidal amplitudes in changes in horizontal component of geomagnetic field (ΔH) are larger over Tirunelveli, a station near dip equator. Solar semidiurnal tides in ΔH have larger amplitudes than lunar tides over polar stations, Mawson and Godhavn.