Soil life in reconstructed ecosystems: initial soil food web responses after rebuilding a forest soil profile for a climate change experiment

Treesearch

Paul T. Rygiewicz; Vicente J. Monleon; Elaine R. Ingham; Kendall J. Martin; Mark G. Johnson

2010-01-01

Disrupting ecosystem components, while transferring and reconstructing them for experiments can produce myriad responses. Establishing the extent of these biological responses as the system approaches a new equilibrium allows us more reliably to emulate comparable native systems. That is, the sensitivity of analyzing ecosystem processes in a reconstructed system is...

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

DOE PAGES

Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

2012-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

DOE PAGES

Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2012-05-15

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

2018-02-01

Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

Contributions of Uncertainty in Droplet Nucleation to the Indirect Effect in Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberg, D. A.; Wang, C.; Avramov, A.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to clouds and climate (the indirect effect, or AIE) contribute significant uncertainty towards understanding contemporary climate change. Despite refinements over the past two decades, modern global aerosol-climate models widely disagree on the magnitude of AIE, and wholly disagree with satellite estimates. Part of the spread in estimates of AIE arises from a lack of constraints on what exactly comprised the pre-industrial atmospheric aerosol burden, but another component is attributable to inter-model differences in simulating the chain of aerosol-cloud-precipitation processes which ultimately produce the indirect effect. Thus, one way to help constrain AIE is to thoroughly investigate the differences in aerosol-cloud processes and interactions occurring in these models. We have configured one model, the CESM/MARC, with a suite of parameterizations affecting droplet activation. Each configuration produces similar climatologies with respect to precipitation and cloud macrophysics, but shows different sensitivies to aerosol perturbation - up to 1 W/m^2 differences in AIE. Regional differences in simulated aerosol-cloud interactions, especially in marine regions with little anthropogenic pollution, contribute to the spread in these AIE estimates. The baseline pre-industrial droplet number concentration in marine regions dominated by natural aerosol strongly predicts the magnitude of each model's AIE, suggesting that targeted observations of cloud microphysical properties across different cloud regimes and their sensitivity to aerosol influences could help provide firm constraints and targets for models. Additionally, we have performed supplemental fully-coupled (atmosphere/ocean) simulations with each model configuration, allowing the model to relax to equilibrium following a change in aerosol emissions. These simulations allow us to assess the slower-timescale responses to aerosol perturbations. The spread in fast model responses (which produce the noted changes in indirect effect or forcing) gives rise to large differences in the equilibrium climate state of each configuration. We show that these changes in equilibrium climate state have implications for AIE estimates from model configurations tuned to the present-day climate.

Local Colonization-Extinction Dynamics Generate Lags in the Response to Climate Change in Eastern North American Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talluto, M. V.; Boulangeat, I.; Vissault, S.; Gravel, D.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to push many species to the limits of their ecological niches and lead to mismatches between species ranges and local environmental conditions. Forested ecosystems in particular may have difficulty tracking climate change due to slow growth and dispersal rates. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs), commonly used to predict the response of species distributions to climate change, relate species occurrences to climate to describe the present niche; however they often project into the future without accounting for slow processes that might produce lags in the response to climate change. An alternative type of model that analyzes patch-scale colonization and extinction (C-E) rates along an environmental gradient has been successful in describing species range limits in theoretical studies. Because the model is stochastic and dynamic, it is more robust to changes in the environmental gradient than static SDMs. We applied such a model to 40 of the most abundant trees in eastern North American forests, using repeated observations across multiple decades to parameterize the C-E rates. We show that C-E rates for many species respond to climate in a manner that generates predicted range limits when the species is at equilibrium with the environment. Moreover, current distributions of many species are significantly out of equilibrium with the present climate, with predicted range limits shifted 10s to 100s of km northward from the present distribution. These results suggest that present warming has already exceeded the thermal tolerance at the southern range limits for the dominant trees of eastern North American forests, producing millions of ha of newly suitable areas north of the present distribution of these species that have not yet been colonized, as well as large southern regions where species are present but expected to be lost in the long-term as dead trees are not replaced, even if no further climate warming occurs.

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Can We Use Single-Column Models for Understanding the Boundary Layer Cloud-Climate Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Gesso, S.; Neggers, R. A. J.

2018-02-01

This study explores how to drive Single-Column Models (SCMs) with existing data sets of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, with the aim of studying the boundary layer cloud response to climate change in the marine subtropical trade wind regime. The EC-EARTH SCM is driven with the large-scale tendencies and boundary conditions as derived from two different data sets, consisting of high-frequency outputs of GCM simulations. SCM simulations are performed near Barbados Cloud Observatory in the dry season (January-April), when fair-weather cumulus is the dominant low-cloud regime. This climate regime is characterized by a near equilibrium in the free troposphere between the long-wave radiative cooling and the large-scale advection of warm air. In the SCM, this equilibrium is ensured by scaling the monthly mean dynamical tendency of temperature and humidity such that it balances that of the model physics in the free troposphere. In this setup, the high-frequency variability in the forcing is maintained, and the boundary layer physics acts freely. This technique yields representative cloud amount and structure in the SCM for the current climate. Furthermore, the cloud response to a sea surface warming of 4 K as produced by the SCM is consistent with that of the forcing GCM.

Rapid changes in the range limits of Scots pine 4000 years ago

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gear, A.J.; Huntley, B.

Paleoecological data provide estimates of response rates to past climate changes. Fossil Pinus sylvestris stumps in far northern Scotland demonstrate former presence of pine trees where conventional pollen evidence of pine forests is lacking. Radiocarbon, dendrochronological, and fine temporal-resolution palynological data show that pine forest were present for about four centuries some 4,000 years ago; the forests expanded and then retreated rapidly some 70 to 80 kilometers. Despite the rapidity of this response to climate change, it occurred at rates slower by an order of magnitude than those necessary to maintain equilibrium with forecast climate changes attributed to the greenhousemore » effect.« less

Clearing clouds of uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelinka, Mark D.; Randall, David A.; Webb, Mark J.; Klein, Stephen A.

2017-10-01

Since 1990, the wide range in model-based estimates of equilibrium climate warming has been attributed to disparate cloud responses to warming. However, major progress in our ability to understand, observe, and simulate clouds has led to the conclusion that global cloud feedback is likely positive.

Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Tingley, Morgan W

2012-01-01

The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus). Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004) further shows that: (i) existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii) interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii) temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv) most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced changes to the realized environmental space. Such insights may be used to conceptualize mechanistic climatic niche models in birds and other taxa.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paynter, D.; Frölicher, T. L.; Horowitz, L. W.; Silvers, L. G.

2018-02-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the long-term change in global mean surface air temperature in response to doubling atmospheric CO2, is usually computed from short atmospheric simulations over a mixed layer ocean, or inferred using a linear regression over a short-time period of adjustment. We report the actual ECS from multimillenial simulations of two Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models (GCMs), ESM2M, and CM3 of 3.3 K and 4.8 K, respectively. Both values are 1 K higher than estimates for the same models reported in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change obtained by regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against temperature. This underestimate is mainly due to changes in the climate feedback parameter (-α) within the first century after atmospheric CO2 has stabilized. For both GCMs it is possible to estimate ECS with linear regression to within 0.3 K by increasing CO2 at 1% per year to doubling and using years 51-350 after CO2 is constant. We show that changes in -α differ between the two GCMs and are strongly tied to the changes in both vertical velocity at 500 hPa (ω500) and estimated inversion strength that the GCMs experience during the progression toward the equilibrium. This suggests that while cloud physics parametrizations are important for determining the strength of -α, the substantially different atmospheric state resulting from a changed sea surface temperature pattern may be of equal importance.

An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

2009-12-01

A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions incorporating crop distribution, evapotranspiration rates, irrigation efficiencies, and crop prices are used to develop water demand-price functions for agricultural water users. Demand functions for municipal and industrial water users are also developed. Recent applications of the integrated model have focused on the hydrologic and economic impacts of demand management alternatives, including large-scale canal lining conservation measures, and market-based water trading between canal diverters and groundwater pumpers. A supply management alternative being investigated involves revising reservoir rule curves to compensate for climate change impacts on timing of reservoir filling.

Clearing clouds of uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Zelinka, Mark D.; Randall, David A.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2017-09-29

We report that since 1990, the wide range in model-based estimates of equilibrium climate warming has been attributed to disparate cloud responses to warming. However, major progress in our ability to understand, observe, and simulate clouds has led to the conclusion that global cloud feedback is likely positive.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-01-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for B lling-Aller d Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson, David J

2009-01-01

We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Boelling-Alleroed (BA) warming. Our model reproduces several major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement in climate sensitivity between the model and observations. In particular, our model simulates the abrupt BA warming as a transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden termination of freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic before the BA. In contrast to previous mechanisms that invoke AMOC multiple equilibrium and Southern Hemisphere climate forcing, we propose that the BA transition ismore » caused by the superposition of climatic responses to the transient CO{sub 2} forcing, the AMOC recovery from Heinrich Event 1, and an AMOC overshoot.« less

A Synthesis of Equilibrium and Historical Models of Landform Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Renwick, William H.

1985-01-01

The synthesis of two approaches that can be used in teaching geomorphology is described. The equilibrium approach explains landforms and landform change in terms of equilibrium between landforms and controlling processes. The historical approach draws on climatic geomorphology to describe the effects of Quaternary climatic and tectonic events on…

Equilibrium and Effective Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugenstein, M.; Bloch-Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, as well as the real world, take thousands of years to equilibrate to CO2 induced radiative perturbations. Equilibrium climate sensitivity - a fully equilibrated 2xCO2 perturbation - has been used for decades as a benchmark in model intercomparisons, as a test of our understanding of the climate system and paleo proxies, and to predict or project future climate change. Computational costs and limited time lead to the widespread practice of extrapolating equilibrium conditions from just a few decades of coupled simulations. The most common workaround is the "effective climate sensitivity" - defined through an extrapolation of a 150 year abrupt2xCO2 simulation, including the assumption of linear climate feedbacks. The definitions of effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity are often mixed up and used equivalently, and it is argued that "transient climate sensitivity" is the more relevant measure for predicting the next decades. We present an ongoing model intercomparison, the "LongRunMIP", to study century and millennia time scales of AOGCM equilibration and the linearity assumptions around feedback analysis. As a true ensemble of opportunity, there is no protocol and the only condition to participate is a coupled model simulation of any stabilizing scenario simulating more than 1000 years. Many of the submitted simulations took several years to conduct. As of July 2016 the contribution comprises 27 scenario simulations of 13 different models originating from 7 modeling centers, each between 1000 and 6000 years. To contribute, please contact the authors as soon as possible We present preliminary results, discussing differences between effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity, the usefulness of transient climate sensitivity, extrapolation methods, and the state of the coupled climate system close to equilibrium. Caption for the Figure below: Evolution of temperature anomaly and radiative imbalance of 22 simulations with 12 models (color indicates the model). 20 year moving average.

Equilibrium of Global Amphibian Species Distributions with Climate

PubMed Central

Munguía, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.; Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre F.; Araújo, Miguel B.

2012-01-01

A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions. PMID:22511938

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry

1992-01-01

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO 2 quadrupling and a CMIP3 composite forcing change: Large eddy simulation of cloud feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blossey, Peter N.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Cheng, Anning

We extended Phase 1 of the CGILS large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison in order to understand if subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds respond to idealized climate perturbations consistently in six LES models. Here the responses to quadrupled carbon dioxide (“fast adjustment”) and to a composite climate perturbation representative of CMIP3 multimodel mean 2×CO 2 near-equilibrium conditions are analyzed. As in Phase 1, the LES is run to equilibrium using specified steady summertime forcings representative of three locations in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in shallow well-mixed stratocumulus, decoupled stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. Our results are generally consistent with a single-LES studymore » of Bretherton et al. (2013) on which this intercomparison was based. Both quadrupled CO 2 and the composite climate perturbation result in less cloud and a shallower boundary layer for all models in well-mixed stratocumulus and for all but a single LES in decoupled stratocumulus and shallow cumulus, corroborating similar findings from global climate models (GCMs). For both perturbations, the amount of cloud reduction varies across the models, but there is less intermodel scatter than in GCMs. Furthermore, the cloud radiative effect changes are much larger in the stratocumulus-capped regimes than in the shallow cumulus regime, for which precipitation buffering may damp the cloud response. In the decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus regimes, both the CO 2 increase and CMIP3 perturbations reduce boundary-layer decoupling, due to the shallowing of inversion height.« less

CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO 2 quadrupling and a CMIP3 composite forcing change: Large eddy simulation of cloud feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Blossey, Peter N.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Cheng, Anning; ...

2016-10-27

We extended Phase 1 of the CGILS large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison in order to understand if subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds respond to idealized climate perturbations consistently in six LES models. Here the responses to quadrupled carbon dioxide (“fast adjustment”) and to a composite climate perturbation representative of CMIP3 multimodel mean 2×CO 2 near-equilibrium conditions are analyzed. As in Phase 1, the LES is run to equilibrium using specified steady summertime forcings representative of three locations in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in shallow well-mixed stratocumulus, decoupled stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. Our results are generally consistent with a single-LES studymore » of Bretherton et al. (2013) on which this intercomparison was based. Both quadrupled CO 2 and the composite climate perturbation result in less cloud and a shallower boundary layer for all models in well-mixed stratocumulus and for all but a single LES in decoupled stratocumulus and shallow cumulus, corroborating similar findings from global climate models (GCMs). For both perturbations, the amount of cloud reduction varies across the models, but there is less intermodel scatter than in GCMs. Furthermore, the cloud radiative effect changes are much larger in the stratocumulus-capped regimes than in the shallow cumulus regime, for which precipitation buffering may damp the cloud response. In the decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus regimes, both the CO 2 increase and CMIP3 perturbations reduce boundary-layer decoupling, due to the shallowing of inversion height.« less

Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lunt, D.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Schmidt, G.A.; Salzmann, U.; Valdes, P.J.; Dowsett, H.J.

2010-01-01

Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earths climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30-50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

2007-01-01

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Excessive Afforestation and Soil Drying on China's Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shuilei; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Yuting; Piao, Shilong; Yang, Hanbo; Lei, Huimin; Fu, Bojie

2018-03-01

Afforestation and deforestation as human disturbances to vegetation have profound impacts on ecohydrological processes influencing both water and carbon cycles and ecosystem sustainability. Since 1999, large-scale revegetation activities such as "Grain-to-Green Program" have been implemented across China's Loess Plateau. However, negative ecohydrological consequences, including streamflow decline and soil drying have emerged. Here we estimate the equilibrium vegetation cover over the Loess Plateau based on an ecohydrological model and assess the water balance under the equilibrium and actual vegetation cover over the past decade. Results show that the current vegetation cover (0.48 on average) has already exceeded the climate-defined equilibrium vegetation cover (0.43 on average) in many parts of the Loess Plateau, especially in the middle-to-east regions. This indicates a widespread overplanting, which is found to primarily responsible for soil drying in the area. Additionally, both the equilibrium vegetation cover and soil moisture tend to decrease under future (i.e., 2011-2050) climate scenarios due to declined atmospheric water supply (i.e., precipitation) and increased atmospheric water demand (i.e., potential evapotranspiration). Our findings suggest that further revegetation on the Loess Plateau should be applied with caution. To maintain a sustainable ecohydrological environment in the region, a revegetation threshold is urgently needed to guide future revegetation activities.

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2009-06-11

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

An economic evaluation of solar radiation management.

PubMed

Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke

2015-11-01

Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity [On proposed emergent constraints of climate sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; DeAngelis, Anthony M.; ...

2018-01-11

Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable tomore » a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. Additionally, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models.« less

On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity [On proposed emergent constraints of climate sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; DeAngelis, Anthony M.

Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable tomore » a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. Additionally, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models.« less

Evaluating Emergent Constraints for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2018-04-23

Emergent constraints are quantities that are observable from current measurements and have skill predicting future climate. Here, this study explores 19 previously proposed emergent constraints related to equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the global-average equilibrium surface temperature response to CO 2 doubling). Several constraints are shown to be closely related, emphasizing the importance for careful understanding of proposed constraints. A new method is presented for decomposing correlation between an emergent constraint and ECS into terms related to physical processes and geographical regions. Using this decomposition, one can determine whether the processes and regions explaining correlation with ECS correspond to the physicalmore » explanation offered for the constraint. Shortwave cloud feedback is generally found to be the dominant contributor to correlations with ECS because it is the largest source of intermodel spread in ECS. In all cases, correlation results from interaction between a variety of terms, reflecting the complex nature of ECS and the fact that feedback terms and forcing are themselves correlated with each other. For 4 of the 19 constraints, the originally proposed explanation for correlation is borne out by our analysis. These four constraints all predict relatively high climate sensitivity. The credibility of six other constraints is called into question owing to correlation with ECS coming mainly from unexpected sources and/or lack of robustness to changes in ensembles. Another six constraints lack a testable explanation and hence cannot be confirmed. Lastly, the fact that this study casts doubt upon more constraints than it confirms highlights the need for caution when identifying emergent constraints from small ensembles.« less

Evaluating Emergent Constraints for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Emergent constraints are quantities that are observable from current measurements and have skill predicting future climate. Here, this study explores 19 previously proposed emergent constraints related to equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the global-average equilibrium surface temperature response to CO 2 doubling). Several constraints are shown to be closely related, emphasizing the importance for careful understanding of proposed constraints. A new method is presented for decomposing correlation between an emergent constraint and ECS into terms related to physical processes and geographical regions. Using this decomposition, one can determine whether the processes and regions explaining correlation with ECS correspond to the physicalmore » explanation offered for the constraint. Shortwave cloud feedback is generally found to be the dominant contributor to correlations with ECS because it is the largest source of intermodel spread in ECS. In all cases, correlation results from interaction between a variety of terms, reflecting the complex nature of ECS and the fact that feedback terms and forcing are themselves correlated with each other. For 4 of the 19 constraints, the originally proposed explanation for correlation is borne out by our analysis. These four constraints all predict relatively high climate sensitivity. The credibility of six other constraints is called into question owing to correlation with ECS coming mainly from unexpected sources and/or lack of robustness to changes in ensembles. Another six constraints lack a testable explanation and hence cannot be confirmed. Lastly, the fact that this study casts doubt upon more constraints than it confirms highlights the need for caution when identifying emergent constraints from small ensembles.« less

Climate and the equilibrium state of land surface hydrology parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1991-01-01

For given climatic rates of precipitation and potential evaporation, the land surface hydrology parameterizations of atmospheric general circulation models will maintain soil-water storage conditions that balance the moisture input and output. The surface relative soil saturation for such climatic conditions serves as a measure of the land surface parameterization state under a given forcing. The equilibrium value of this variable for alternate parameterizations of land surface hydrology are determined as a function of climate and the sensitivity of the surface to shifts and changes in climatic forcing are estimated.

An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.

2010-12-01

The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.

Transitions between multiple equilibria of paleo climate: a glimpse in to the dynamics of abrupt climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Ito, Takamitsu; McGee, David; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2017-04-01

The dynamics regulating large climatic transitions such as glacial-interglacial cycles or DO events remains a puzzle. Forcings behind these transitions are not robustly identified and potential candidates (e.g. Milankovitch cycles, freshwater perturbations) often appear too weak to explain such dramatic transitions. A potential solution to this long-standing puzzle is that Earth's climate is endowed with multiple equilibrium states of global extent. Such states are commonly found in low-order or conceptual climate models, but it is unclear whether a system as complex as Earth's climate can sustain multiple equilibrium states. Here we report that multiple equilibrium states of the climate system are also possible in a complex, fully dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM with idealized Earth-like geometry, resolved weather systems and a hydrological cycle. In our model, two equilibrium states coexist for the same parameters and external forcings: a Warm climate with a small Northern hemisphere sea ice cap and a large southern one and a Cold climate with large ice caps at both poles. The dynamical states of the Warm and Cold solutions exhibit striking similarities with our present-day climate and the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, respectively. A carbon cycle model driven by the two dynamical states produces an atmospheric pCO2 draw-down of about 110 pm between the Warm and Cold states, close to Glacial-Interglacial differences found in ice cores. Mechanism controlling the existence of the multiple states and changes in the atmospheric CO2 will be briefly presented. Finally we willdescribe transition experiments from the Cold to the Warm state, focusing on the lead-lags in the system, notably between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres climates.

The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E.

2018-04-01

Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Equilibrium shoreline response of a high wave energy beach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yates, M.L.; Guza, R.T.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Hansen, J.E.; Barnard, P.L.

2011-01-01

Four years of beach elevation surveys at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, are used to extend an existing equilibrium shoreline change model, previously calibrated with fine sand and moderate energy waves, to medium sand and higher-energy waves. The shoreline, characterized as the cross-shore location of the mean high water contour, varied seasonally by between 30 and 60 m, depending on the alongshore location. The equilibrium shoreline change model relates the rate of horizontal shoreline displacement to the hourly wave energy E and the wave energy disequilibrium, the difference between E and the equilibrium wave energy that would cause no change in the present shoreline location. Values for the model shoreline response coefficients are tuned to fit the observations in 500 m alongshore segments and averaged over segments where the model has good skill and the estimated effects of neglected alongshore sediment transport are relatively small. Using these representative response coefficients for 0.3 mm sand from Ocean Beach and driving the model with much lower-energy winter waves observed at San Onofre Beach (also 0.3 mm sand) in southern California, qualitatively reproduces the small seasonal shoreline fluctuations at San Onofre. This consistency suggests that the shoreline model response coefficients depend on grain size and may be constant, and thus transportable, between sites with similar grain size and different wave climates. The calibrated model response coefficients predict that for equal fluctuations in wave energy, changes in shoreline location on a medium-grained (0.3 mm) beach are much smaller than on a previously studied fine-grained (0.2 mm) beach. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon to forcing of anthropogenic aerosol species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Wang, Qiuyan; Zhang, Hua

2017-12-01

We used an online aerosol-climate model to study the equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to increases in anthropogenic emissions of sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols from 1850 to 2000. Our results show that each of these aerosol species has a different effect on the EASM as a result of changes in the local sea-land thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation. The increased emission of sulfate aerosol leads to a decrease in the thermal contrast between the land and ocean, a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet, and significant northerly wind anomalies at 850 hPa over eastern China and the ambient oceans, markedly dampening the EASM. An increase in organic carbon aerosol results in pronounced surface cooling and the formation of an anomalous anticyclone over the oceans north of 30°N. These effects cause a slight increase in the sea-land thermal contrast and southerly flow anomalies to the west of the anticyclonic center, strengthening the northern EASM. An increase in organic carbon emission decreases the sea-land thermal contrast over southern China, which weakens the southern EASM. The response of the summer 850-hPa winds and rainfall over the East Asian monsoon region to an increase in black carbon emission is generally consistent with the response to an increase in organic carbon. The increase in black carbon emission leads to a strengthening of the northern EASM north of 35°N and a slight weakening of the southern EASM south of 35°N. The simulated response of the EASM to the increase in black carbon emission is unchanged when the emission of black carbon is scaled up by five times its year 2000 levels, although the intensities of the response is enhanced. The increase in sulfate emission primarily weakens the EASM, whereas the increases in black carbon and organic carbon emissions mitigate weakening of the northern EASM.

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2016-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning. PMID:27633953

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Taylor, Karl E.

This paper clarifies the causes of intermodel differences in the global-average temperature response to doubled CO 2, commonly known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The authors begin by noting several issues with the standard approach for decomposing ECS into a sum of forcing and feedback terms. This leads to a derivation of an alternative method based on linearizing the effect of the net feedback. Consistent with previous studies, the new method identifies shortwave cloud feedback as the dominant source of intermodel spread in ECS. This new approach also reveals that covariances between cloud feedback and forcing, between lapse rate andmore » longwave cloud feedbacks, and between albedo and shortwave cloud feedbacks play an important and previously underappreciated role in determining model differences in ECS. Finally, defining feedbacks based on fixed relative rather than specific humidity (as suggested by Held and Shell) reduces the covariances between processes and leads to more straightforward interpretations of results.« less

Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Taylor, Karl E.; ...

2016-01-07

This paper clarifies the causes of intermodel differences in the global-average temperature response to doubled CO 2, commonly known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The authors begin by noting several issues with the standard approach for decomposing ECS into a sum of forcing and feedback terms. This leads to a derivation of an alternative method based on linearizing the effect of the net feedback. Consistent with previous studies, the new method identifies shortwave cloud feedback as the dominant source of intermodel spread in ECS. This new approach also reveals that covariances between cloud feedback and forcing, between lapse rate andmore » longwave cloud feedbacks, and between albedo and shortwave cloud feedbacks play an important and previously underappreciated role in determining model differences in ECS. Finally, defining feedbacks based on fixed relative rather than specific humidity (as suggested by Held and Shell) reduces the covariances between processes and leads to more straightforward interpretations of results.« less

MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated carbon, nutrients, and water—technical documentation. Version 1.0.

Treesearch

Dominique Bachelet; James M. Lenihan; Christopher Daly; Ronald P. Neilson; Dennis S. Ojima; William J. Parton

2001-01-01

Assessments of vegetation response to climate change have generally been made only by equilibrium vegetation models that predict vegetation composition under steady-state conditions. These models do not simulate either ecosystem biogeochemical processes or changes in ecosystem structure that may, in turn, act as feedbacks in determining the dynamics of vegetation...

Mid-Pleistocene climate transition drives net mass loss from rapidly uplifting St. Elias Mountains, Alaska.

PubMed

Gulick, Sean P S; Jaeger, John M; Mix, Alan C; Asahi, Hirofumi; Bahlburg, Heinrich; Belanger, Christina L; Berbel, Glaucia B B; Childress, Laurel; Cowan, Ellen; Drab, Laureen; Forwick, Matthias; Fukumura, Akemi; Ge, Shulan; Gupta, Shyam; Kioka, Arata; Konno, Susumu; LeVay, Leah J; März, Christian; Matsuzaki, Kenji M; McClymont, Erin L; Moy, Chris; Müller, Juliane; Nakamura, Atsunori; Ojima, Takanori; Ribeiro, Fabiana R; Ridgway, Kenneth D; Romero, Oscar E; Slagle, Angela L; Stoner, Joseph S; St-Onge, Guillaume; Suto, Itsuki; Walczak, Maureen D; Worthington, Lindsay L; Bailey, Ian; Enkelmann, Eva; Reece, Robert; Swartz, John M

2015-12-08

Erosion, sediment production, and routing on a tectonically active continental margin reflect both tectonic and climatic processes; partitioning the relative importance of these processes remains controversial. Gulf of Alaska contains a preserved sedimentary record of the Yakutat Terrane collision with North America. Because tectonic convergence in the coastal St. Elias orogen has been roughly constant for 6 My, variations in its eroded sediments preserved in the offshore Surveyor Fan constrain a budget of tectonic material influx, erosion, and sediment output. Seismically imaged sediment volumes calibrated with chronologies derived from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program boreholes show that erosion accelerated in response to Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification (∼ 2.7 Ma) and that the 900-km-long Surveyor Channel inception appears to correlate with this event. However, tectonic influx exceeded integrated sediment efflux over the interval 2.8-1.2 Ma. Volumetric erosion accelerated following the onset of quasi-periodic (∼ 100-ky) glacial cycles in the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (1.2-0.7 Ma). Since then, erosion and transport of material out of the orogen has outpaced tectonic influx by 50-80%. Such a rapid net mass loss explains apparent increases in exhumation rates inferred onshore from exposure dates and mapped out-of-sequence fault patterns. The 1.2-My mass budget imbalance must relax back toward equilibrium in balance with tectonic influx over the timescale of orogenic wedge response (millions of years). The St. Elias Range provides a key example of how active orogenic systems respond to transient mass fluxes, and of the possible influence of climate-driven erosive processes that diverge from equilibrium on the million-year scale.

Mid-Pleistocene climate transition drives net mass loss from rapidly uplifting St. Elias Mountains, Alaska

PubMed Central

Jaeger, John M.; Mix, Alan C.; Asahi, Hirofumi; Bahlburg, Heinrich; Belanger, Christina L.; Berbel, Glaucia B. B.; Childress, Laurel; Cowan, Ellen; Drab, Laureen; Forwick, Matthias; Fukumura, Akemi; Ge, Shulan; Gupta, Shyam; Konno, Susumu; LeVay, Leah J.; März, Christian; McClymont, Erin L.; Moy, Chris; Müller, Juliane; Nakamura, Atsunori; Ojima, Takanori; Ribeiro, Fabiana R.; Ridgway, Kenneth D.; Romero, Oscar E.; Slagle, Angela L.; Stoner, Joseph S.; St-Onge, Guillaume; Suto, Itsuki; Walczak, Maureen D.; Worthington, Lindsay L.; Bailey, Ian; Enkelmann, Eva; Reece, Robert; Swartz, John M.

2015-01-01

Erosion, sediment production, and routing on a tectonically active continental margin reflect both tectonic and climatic processes; partitioning the relative importance of these processes remains controversial. Gulf of Alaska contains a preserved sedimentary record of the Yakutat Terrane collision with North America. Because tectonic convergence in the coastal St. Elias orogen has been roughly constant for 6 My, variations in its eroded sediments preserved in the offshore Surveyor Fan constrain a budget of tectonic material influx, erosion, and sediment output. Seismically imaged sediment volumes calibrated with chronologies derived from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program boreholes show that erosion accelerated in response to Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification (∼2.7 Ma) and that the 900-km-long Surveyor Channel inception appears to correlate with this event. However, tectonic influx exceeded integrated sediment efflux over the interval 2.8–1.2 Ma. Volumetric erosion accelerated following the onset of quasi-periodic (∼100-ky) glacial cycles in the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (1.2–0.7 Ma). Since then, erosion and transport of material out of the orogen has outpaced tectonic influx by 50–80%. Such a rapid net mass loss explains apparent increases in exhumation rates inferred onshore from exposure dates and mapped out-of-sequence fault patterns. The 1.2-My mass budget imbalance must relax back toward equilibrium in balance with tectonic influx over the timescale of orogenic wedge response (millions of years). The St. Elias Range provides a key example of how active orogenic systems respond to transient mass fluxes, and of the possible influence of climate-driven erosive processes that diverge from equilibrium on the million-year scale. PMID:26598689

Vegetation response to early holocene warming as an analog for current and future changes: Special section

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, K.L.

2010-01-01

Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5-4 ??C over the next 60-90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid-colonizing species should increase, whereas slow-colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 ??C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early-successional species rapidly increased, whereas late-successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, less-extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14,700 and 16,800 years ago. Late-successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude, duration, and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans, especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early-successional colonizers, they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early-successional vegetation. Additionally, my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century. ?? 2009 Society for Conservation Biology.

Increased Carbon Throughput But No Net Soil Carbon Loss in Field Warming Experiments: Combining Data Assimilation and Meta-Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Gestel, N.; Shi, Z.; van Groenigen, K. J.; Osenberg, C. W.; Andresen, L. C.; Dukes, J. S.; Hovenden, M. J.; Michelsen, A.; Pendall, E.; Reich, P.; Schuur, E.; Hungate, B. A.

2017-12-01

Minor changes in soil C dynamics in response to warming can strongly modulate climate change. Approaches to estimate long-term changes in soil carbon stocks from shorter-term warming experiments should consider temporal trends in soil carbon dynamics. Here we used data assimilation to take into account the soil carbon time series data collected from the upper soil layer (<15 cm) in 70 field warming experiments located worldwide. We used a soil carbon model with two pools, representing fast- and slow-decaying materials. We show that on average experimental warming enhanced fluxes of incoming and outgoing carbon with no change in predicted equilibrium stocks of carbon. Experimental warming increased the decomposition rates of the fast soil carbon pools by 10.7% on average, but also increased soil carbon input by 8.1%. When projecting the carbon pools to equilibrium stocks we found that warming decreased the size of the fast pool (-3.7%), but did not affect the slow or total carbon pools. We demonstrate that warming increases carbon throughput without an overall effect on total equilibrium carbon stocks. Hence, our findings do not support a generalizable soil carbon-climate feedback for soil carbon in the upper soil layer.

On Budyko curve as a consequence of climate-soil-vegetation equilibrium hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, S.

2012-04-01

A hypothesis that Budyko curve is a consequence of stable equilibriums of climate-soil-vegetation co-evolution is tested at biome scale. We assume that i) distribution of vegetation, soil and climate within a biome is a distribution of equilibriums of similar soil-vegetation dynamics and that this dynamics is different across different biomes and ii) soil and vegetation are in dynamic equilibrium with climate while in static equilibrium with each other. In order to test the hypothesis, a two stage regression is considered using MOPEX/Hydrologic Synthesis Project dataset for basins in eastern United States. In the first stage, multivariate regression (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) is performed for each biome with soil (estimated porosity and slope of soil water retention curve) and vegetation characteristics (5-week NDVI gradient) as dependent variables and aridity index, vegetation and soil characteristics as independent variables for respective dependent variables. The regression residuals of the first stage along with aridity index then serve as second stage independent variables while actual vaporization to precipitation ratio (vapor index) serving as dependent variable. Insignificance, if revealed, of a first stage parameter allows us to reject the role of corresponding soil or vegetation characteristics in the co-evolution hypothesis. Meanwhile the significance of second stage regression parameter corresponding to a first stage residual allow us to reject the hypothesis that Budyko curve is a locus "solely" of climate-soil-vegetation co-evolution equilibrium points. Results suggest lack of evidence for soil-vegetation co-evolution in Prairies and Mixed/SouthEast Forests (unlike in Deciduous Forests) though climate plays a dominant role in explaining within biome soil and vegetation characteristics across all the biomes. Preliminary results indicate absence of effects beyond climate-soil-vegetation co-evolution in explaining the ratio of annual total minimum monthly flows to precipitation in Deciduous Forests though other three biome types show presence of effects beyond co-evolutionary. Such an analysis can yield insights into the nature of hydrologic change when assessed along the Budyko curve as well as non co-evolutionary effects such as anthropogenic effects on basin scale annual water balances.

Changing Climate Drives Lagging and Accelerating Glacier Responses and Accelerating Adjustments of the Hazard Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, Jeffrey

2013-04-01

It is virtually universally recognized among climate and cryospheric scientists that climate and greenhouse gas abundances are closely correlated. Disagreements mainly pertain to the fundamental triggers for large fluctuations in climate and greenhouse gases during the pre-industrial era, and exactly how coupling is achieved amongst the dynamic solid Earth, the Sun, orbital and rotational dynamics, greenhouse gas abundances, and climate. Also unsettled is the climate sensitivity defined as the absolute linkage between the magnitude of climate warming/cooling and greenhouse gas increase/decrease. Important questions concern lagging responses (either greenhouse gases lagging climate fluctuations, or vice versa) and the causes of the lags. In terms of glacier and ice sheet responses to climate change, there also exist several processes causing lagging responses to climate change inputs. The simplest parameterization giving a glacier's lagging response time, τ, is that given by Jóhanneson et al. (1989), modified slightly here as τ = b/h, where b is a measure of ablation rate and h is a measure of glacier thickness. The exact definitions of τ, b, and h are subject to some interpretive license, but for a back-of-the-envelope approximation, we may take b as the magnitude of the mean ablation rate over the whole ablation area, and h as the mean glacier thickness in the glacier ablation zone. τ remains a bit ambiguous but may be considered as an exponential time scale for a decreasing response of b to a climatic step change. For some climate changes, b and h can be taken as the values prior to the climate change, but for large climatic shifts, this parameterization must be iterated. The actual response of a glacier at any time is the sum of exponentially decreasing responses from past changes. (Several aspects of glacier dynamics cause various glacier responses to differ from this idealized glacier-response theory.) Some important details relating to the retreat (or advances) of glaciers due to historic and future anthropogenic and longer term climate change relate to a changing glacier hazard regime. Climate change is connected to changes in the geographic distribution and magnitudes of potentially hazardous glacier lakes, large rock and ice avalanches, ice-dammed rivers, and surges. I shall consider these changes in hazard environment in relation to response-time theory and dynamical divergences from idealized response-time theory. Case histories of certain hazard-prone regions, including developments in fast-response-type glaciers and slow-response glaciers and ice sheets will also be discussed. In short, there will be a strong tendency of the hazard regimes of glacierized regions to shift far more rapidly in the 21st century than they did in the 20th century. The magnitude of the shifts will be more dramatic than any simple linear scaling to climate warming would suggest; this is largely because, due to lagging responses, glaciers are still trying to catch up to a new equilibrium for 20th century climate, while climate change remains a moving target that will drive accelerating glacier responses (including responses in hazard environments) in most glacierized regions.

Towards scaling interannual ecohydrological responses of conifer forests to bark beetle infestations from individuals to landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, D. S.; Ewers, B. E.; Peckham, S. D.; Savoy, P.; Reed, D. E.; Frank, J. M.

2013-12-01

Widespread epidemics of forest-damaging insects have severe implications for the interconnections between water and ecosystem processes under present-day climate. How these systems respond to future climates is highly uncertain, and so there is a need for a better understanding of the effects of such disturbances on plant hydraulics, and the consequent effects on ecosystem processes. Moreover, large-scale manifestations of such disturbances require scaling knowledge obtained from individual trees or stands up to a regional extent. This requires a conceptual framework that integrates physical and biological processes that are immutable and scalable. Indeed, in Western North America multiple conifer species have been impacted by the bark beetle epidemic, but the prediction of such widespread outbreaks under changing environmental conditions must be generalized from a relatively small number of ground-based observations. Using model-data fusion we examine the fundamental principles that drive ecological and hydrological responses to bark beetles infestation from individuals to regions. The study includes a mid-elevation (2750 m a.s.l) lodgepole pine forest and higher (3190 m a.s.l.) elevation Engelmann spruce - fir forest in southern Wyoming. The study included a suite of observations, comprising leaf gas exchange, non-structural carbon (NSC), plant hydraulics, including sap flux transpiration (E), vulnerability to cavitation, leaf water potentials, and eddy covariance, were made pre-, during-, and post-disturbance, as the bark beetle infestation moved through these areas. Numerous observations tested hypotheses generated by the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES), which integrates soil hydraulics and dynamic tree hydraulics (cavitation) with canopy energy and gas exchange, and operates at scales from individuals to landscapes. TREES accurately predicted E and NSC dynamics among individuals spanning pre- and post-disturbance periods, with the 95% prediction bounds of the model capturing 95% of observations. Based on support from our model-data fusion we advance a conceptual framework, grounded on the idea of plant hydraulic traits shifting from equilibrium to non-equilibrium states between soil and vegetation, with some traits that forms a key interconnection between water and ecosystem responses to bark beetle disturbance shifting back to equilibrium within five years. Implications of future climate conditions are then examined using our conceptual framework, by exploring the water and carbon responses to insect outbreaks with and without co-occurring drought and heat stress.

Obliquity variation in a Mars climate evolution model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tyler, D.; Haberle, Robert M.

1993-01-01

The existence of layered terrain in both polar regions of Mars is strong evidence supporting a cyclic variation in climate. It has been suggested that periods of net deposition have alternated with periods of net erosion in creating the layered structure that is seen today. The cause for this cyclic climatic behavior is variation in the annually averaged latitudinal distribution of solar insolation in response to obliquity cycles. For Mars, obliquity variation leads to major climatological excursion due to the condensation and sublimation of the major atmospheric constituent, CO2. The atmosphere will collapse into the polar caps, or existing caps will rapidly sublimate into the atmosphere, dependent upon the polar surface heat balance and the direction of the change in obliquity. It has been argued that variations in the obliquity of Mars cause substantial departures from the current climatological values of the surface pressure and the amount of CO2 stored in both the planetary regolith and polar caps. In this new work we have modified the Haberle et al. model to incorporate variable obliquity by allowing the polar and equatorial insolation to become functions of obliquity, which we assume to vary sinusoidally in time. As obliquity varies in the model, there can be discontinuities in the time evolution of the model equilibrium values for surface pressure, regolith, and polar cap storage. The time constant, tau r, for the regolith to find equilibrium with the climate is estimated--depending on the depth, thermal conductivity, and porosity of the regolith--between 10(exp 4) and 10(exp 6) yr. Thus, using 2000-yr timesteps to move smoothly through the 0.1250 m.y. obliquity cycles, we have an atmosphere/regolith system that cannot be assumed in equilibrium. We have dealt with this problem by limiting the rate at which CO2, can move between the atmosphere and regolith, mimicking the diffusive nature and effects of the temperature and pressure waves, by setting the time rate of change of regolith storage proportional to the difference between equilibrium storage and current storage.

Interactions between tectonics, silicate weathering, and climate explored with carbon cycle modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penman, D. E.; Caves Rugenstein, J. K.; Ibarra, D. E.; Winnick, M.

2017-12-01

Earth's long-term carbon cycle is thought to benefit from a stabilizing negative feedback in the form of CO2 consumption by the chemical weathering of silicate minerals: during periods of elevated atmospheric pCO2, chemical weathering rates increase, thus consuming more atmospheric CO2 and cooling global climate, whereas during periods of low pCO2, weathering rates decrease, allowing buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere and warming. At equilibrium, CO2 consumption by silicate weathering balances volcanic CO2 degassing at a specific atmospheric pCO2 dictated by the relationship between total silicate weathering rate and pCO2: Earth's "weathering curve." We use numerical carbon cycle modeling to demonstrate that the shape and slope of the weathering curve is crucial to understanding proposed tectonic controls on pCO2 and climate. First, the shape of the weathering curve dictates the equilibrium response of the carbon cycle to changes in the rate of background volcanic/solid Earth CO2 degassing, which has been suggested to vary significantly with plate tectonic reorganizations over geologic timescales. Second, we demonstrate that if tectonic events can significantly change the weathering curve, this can act as an effective driver of pCO2 and climate on tectonic timescales by changing the atmospheric pCO2 at which silicate weathering balances a constant volcanic/solid Earth degassing rate. Finally, we review the complex interplay of environmental factors that affect modern weathering rates in the field and highlight how the resulting uncertainty surrounding the shape of Earth's weathering curve significantly hampers our ability to quantitatively predict the response of pCO2 and climate to tectonic forcing, and thus represents a substantial knowledge gap in Earth science. We conclude with strategies for closing this knowledge gap by using precise paleoclimatic reconstructions of intervals with known tectonic forcings.

Biological forcing controls the chemistry of the coral exoskeleton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meibom, A.; Mostefaoui, S.; Cuif, J.; Yurimoto, H.; Dauphin, Y.; Houlbreque, F.; Dunbar, R.; Constantz, B.

2006-12-01

A multitude of marine organisms produce calcium carbonate skeletons that are used extensively to reconstruct water temperature variability of the tropical and subtropical oceans - a key parameter in global climate-change models. Such paleo-climate reconstructions are based on the notion that skeletal oxygen isotopic composition and certain trace-element abundances (e.g., Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios) vary in response to changes in the water temperature. However, it is a fundamental problem that poorly understood biological processes introduce large compositional deviations from thermodynamic equilibrium and hinder precise calibrations of many paleo-climate proxies. Indeed, the role of water temperature in controlling the composition of the skeleton is far from understood. We have studied trace-element abundances as well as oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions of individual skeletal components in the zooxanthellate and non-zooxanthellate corals at ultra-structural, i.e. micrometer to sub-micrometer length scales. From this body of work we draw the following, generalized conclusions: 1) Centers of calcification (COC) are not in equilibrium with seawater. Notably, the Sr/Ca ratio is higher than expected for aragonite equilibrium with seawater at the temperature at which the skeleton was formed. Furthermore, the COC are further away from equilibrium with seawater than fibrous skeleton in terms of stable isotope composition. 2) COC are dramatically different from the fibrous aragonite skeleton in terms of trace element composition. 3) Neither trace element nor stable isotope variations in the fibrous (bulk) part of the skeleton are directly related to changes in SST. In fact, changes in SST can have very little to do with the observed compositional variations. 4) Trace element variations in the fibrous (bulk) part of the skeleton are not related to the activity of zooxanthellae. These observations are directly relevant to the issue of biological versus non-biological control over skeleton composition and will be discussed.

Earth system responses to cumulative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2015-07-01

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil carbon emissions and multiple climate targets are essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient responses in different climate variables are quantified for a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization and in idealized experiments using the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model. The model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte-Carlo type framework. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.88 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.28 to 2.69 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and in steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The slopes of the relationships change when CO2 is stabilized. The Transient Climate Response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models, but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

SEEPLUS: A SIMPLE ONLINE CLIMATE MODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsui, Junichi

A web application for a simple climate model - SEEPLUS (a Simple climate model to Examine Emission Pathways Leading to Updated Scenarios) - has been developed. SEEPLUS consists of carbon-cycle and climate-change modules, through which it provides the information infrastructure required to perform climate-change experiments, even on a millennial-timescale. The main objective of this application is to share the latest scientific knowledge acquired from climate modeling studies among the different stakeholders involved in climate-change issues. Both the carbon-cycle and climate-change modules employ impulse response functions (IRFs) for their key processes, thereby enabling the model to integrate the outcome from an ensemble of complex climate models. The current IRF parameters and forcing manipulation are basically consistent with, or within an uncertainty range of, the understanding of certain key aspects such as the equivalent climate sensitivity and ocean CO2 uptake data documented in representative literature. The carbon-cycle module enables inverse calculation to determine the emission pathway required in order to attain a given concentration pathway, thereby providing a flexible way to compare the module with more advanced modeling studies. The module also enables analytical evaluation of its equilibrium states, thereby facilitating the long-term planning of global warming mitigation.

Fast and Slow Responses of the South Asian Monsoon System to Anthropogenic Aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

2012-09-25

Using a global climate model with fully predictive aerosol life cycle, we investigate the fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Our results show that the feedbacks associated with sea surface temperature (SST) change caused by aerosols play a more important role than the aerosol's direct impact on radiation, clouds and land surface (rapid adjustments) in shaping the total equilibrium climate response of the monsoon system to aerosol forcing. Inhomogeneous SST cooling caused by anthropogenic aerosols eventually reduces the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient and the easterly shear of zonal winds over the region,more » slowing down the local Hadley cell circulation, decreasing the northward moisture transport, and causing a reduction in precipitation over South Asia. Although total responses in precipitation are closer to the slow responses in general, the fast component dominates over land areas north of 25°N. Our results also show an east-west asymmetry in the fast responses to anthropogenic aerosols causing increases in precipitation west of 80°E but decreases east of it.« less

Glaciation as a destructive and constructive control on mountain building.

PubMed

Thomson, Stuart N; Brandon, Mark T; Tomkin, Jonathan H; Reiners, Peter W; Vásquez, Cristián; Wilson, Nathaniel J

2010-09-16

Theoretical analysis predicts that enhanced erosion related to late Cenozoic global cooling can act as a first-order influence on the internal dynamics of mountain building, leading to a reduction in orogen width and height. The strongest response is predicted in orogens dominated by highly efficient alpine glacial erosion, producing a characteristic pattern of enhanced erosion on the windward flank of the orogen and maximum elevation controlled by glacier equilibrium line altitude, where long-term glacier mass gain equals mass loss. However, acquiring definitive field evidence of an active tectonic response to global climate cooling has been elusive. Here we present an extensive new low-temperature thermochronologic data set from the Patagonian Andes, a high-latitude active orogen with a well-documented late Cenozoic tectonic, climatic and glacial history. Data from 38° S to 49° S record a marked acceleration in erosion 7 to 5 Myr ago coeval with the onset of major Patagonian glaciation and retreat of deformation from the easternmost thrust front. The highest rates and magnitudes of erosion are restricted to the glacial equilibrium line altitude on the windward western flank of the orogen, as predicted in models of glaciated critical taper orogens where erosion rate is a function of ice sliding velocity. In contrast, towards higher latitudes (49° S to 56° S) a transition to older bedrock cooling ages signifies much reduced late Cenozoic erosion despite dominantly glacial conditions here since the latest Miocene. The increased height of the orogenic divide at these latitudes (well above the equilibrium line altitude) leads us to conclude that the southernmost Patagonian Andes represent the first recognized example of regional glacial protection of an active orogen from erosion, leading to constructive growth in orogen height and width.

The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, Olivier

2016-04-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of analysing GCMs with the step-experiments. Acknowledgments: This work is supported by the FP7 HELIX project (www.helixclimate.eu) References: Anandarajah, G., Pye, S., Usher, W., Kesicki, F., & Mcglade, C. (2011). TIAM-UCL Global model documentation. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models/models/tiam-ucl/tiam-ucl-manual Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A., & Andrews, T. (2013). Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections. Climate Dynamics, 40(3-4), 1041-1053.

Observation-based Estimate of Climate Sensitivity with a Scaling Climate Response Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

To properly adress the anthropogenic impacts upon the earth system, an estimate of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is essential. Observation-based estimates of climate sensitivity are often limited by their ability to take into account the slower response of the climate system imparted mainly by the large thermal inertia of oceans, they are nevertheless essential to provide an alternative to estimates from global circulation models and increase our confidence in estimates of climate sensitivity by the multiplicity of approaches. It is straightforward to calculate the Effective Climate Sensitivity(EffCS) as the ratio of temperature change to the change in radiative forcing; the result is almost identical to the Transient Climate Response(TCR), but it underestimates the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(ECS). A study of global mean temperature is thus presented assuming a Scaling Climate Response Function to deterministic radiative forcing. This general form is justified as there exists a scaling symmetry respected by the dynamics, and boundary conditions, over a wide range of scales and it allows for long-range dependencies while retaining only 3 parameter which are estimated empirically. The range of memory is modulated by the scaling exponent H. We can calculate, analytically, a one-to-one relation between the scaling exponent H and the ratio of EffCS to TCR and EffCS to ECS. The scaling exponent of the power law is estimated by a regression of temperature as a function of forcing. We consider for the analysis 4 different datasets of historical global mean temperature and 100 scenario runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 distributed among the 4 Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios. We find that the error function for the estimate on historical temperature is very wide and thus, many scaling exponent can be used without meaningful changes in the fit residuals of historical temperatures; their response in the year 2100 on the other hand, is very broad, especially for a low-emission scenario such as RCP 2.6. CMIP5 scenario runs thus allow for a narrower estimate of H which can then be used to estimate the ECS and TCR from the EffCS estimated from the historical data.

Equilibrium theory of island biogeography: A review

Treesearch

Angela D. Yu; Simon A. Lei

2001-01-01

The topography, climatic pattern, location, and origin of islands generate unique patterns of species distribution. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography creates a general framework in which the study of taxon distribution and broad island trends may be conducted. Critical components of the equilibrium theory include the species-area relationship, island-...

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

Mountain Plant Community Sentinels: AWOL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanson, G. P.

2017-12-01

Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change. Because climatic gradients are steep on mountain slopes, the spatial response of plant communities to climate change should be compressed and easier to detect. These expectations have led to identifying mountain plant communities as sentinels for climate change. This idea has, however, been criticized. Two critiques, for alpine treeline and alpine tundra, are rehearsed and supplemented. The critique of alpine treeline as sentinel is bolstered with new model results on the confounding role of dispersal mechanisms and sensitivity to climatic volatility. In alpine tundra, for which background turnover rates have yet to be established, community composition may reflect environmental gradients only for extremes where effects of climate are most indirect. Both plant communities, while primarily determined by energy at broad scales, may respond to water as a proximate driver at local scales. These plant communities may not be in equilibrium with climate, and differently scaled time lags may mean that ongoing vegetation change may not signal ongoing climate change (or lack thereof). In both cases a double-whammy is created by scale dependence for time lags and for drivers leading to confusion, but these cases present opportunities for insights into basic ecology.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2016-02-01

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An ˜ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled controlmore » run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.« less

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE PAGES

Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; ...

2017-09-27

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled controlmore » run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.« less

Updated estimates of the climate response to emissions and their policy implications (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, A.; Stocker, T. F.; Frame, D. J.

2013-12-01

We review the implications of observations of the global energy budget over recent decades, particularly the 'warming hiatus' period over the 2000s, for key climate system properties including equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). We show how estimates of the upper bound of ECS remain, as ever, sensitive to prior assumptions and also how ECS, even if it were better constrained, would provide much less information about the social cost of carbon than TCR or TCRE. Hence the excitement over recent, apparently conflicting, estimates of ECS, is almost entirely misplaced. Of greater potential policy significance is the fact that recent observations imply a modest (of order 25%) downward revision in the upper bound and most likely values of TCR and TCRE, as compared to some, but not all, of the estimates published in the mid-2000s. This is partly due to the recent reduced rate of warming, and partly due to revisions in estimates of total anthropogenic forcing to date. Both of these developments may turn out to be short-lived, so the policy implications of this modest revision in TCR/TCRE should not be over-sold: nevertheless, it is interesting to explore what they are. The implications for climate change adaptation of a 25% downward revision in TCR and TCRE are minimal, being overshadowed by uncertainty due to internal variability and non-CO2 climate forcings over typical timescales for adaptation planning. We introduce a simple framework for assessing the implications for mitigation in terms of timing of peak emissions average rates of emission reduction required to avoid specific levels of peak warming. We show that, as long as emissions continue to increase approximately exponentially, the implications for mitigation of any revisions in the climate response are surprisingly small.

A Simple Climate Model Program for High School Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2012-04-01

The future climate change projections of the IPCC AR4 are based on GCM simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern, with an arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land sea contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the IPCC predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change are very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex GCM simulations and they are not accessible for ordinary people. In this study presented here we will introduce a very simple gridded globally resolved energy balance model based on strongly simplified physical processes, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the 1-dimensional energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex GCMs. It runs on standard PC computers computing globally resolved climate simulation with 2yrs per second or 100,000yrs per day. The program can compute typical global warming scenarios in a few minutes on a standard PC. The computer code is only 730 line long with very simple formulations that high school students should be able to understand. The simple model's climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern is within the uncertainties of the IPCC AR4 models simulations. It is capable of simulating the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land sea contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC AR4 models in amplitude and structure. The program can be used to do sensitivity studies in which students can change something (e.g. reduce the solar radiation, take away the clouds or make snow black) and see how it effects the climate or the climate response to changes in greenhouse gases. This program is available for every one and could be the basis for high school education. Partners for a high school project are wanted!

Linkages between ocean circulation, heat uptake and transient warming: a sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Patrik; Stocker, Thomas

2016-04-01

Transient global warming due to greenhouse gas radiative forcing is substantially reduced by ocean heat uptake (OHU). However, the fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized in transient climate model simulations differs strongly between models (Frölicher and Paynter 2015). It has been shown that this difference is not only related to the magnitude of OHU, but also to the radiative response the OHU causes, measured by the OHU efficacy (Winton et al., 2010). This efficacy is strongly influenced by the spatial pattern of the OHU and its changes (Rose et al. 2014, Winton et al. 2013), predominantly caused by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Even in absence of external greenhouse gas forcing, an AMOC weakening causes a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (Peltier and Vettoretti, 2014), inducing in a net warming of the Earth System. We investigate linkages between those findings by performing both freshwater and greenhouse gas experiments in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. To assess the sensitivity of the results to ocean and atmospheric transport as well as climate sensitivity, we use an ensemble of model versions, systematically varying key parameters. We analyze circulation changes and radiative adjustments in conjunction with traditional warming metrics such as the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. This aims to improve the understanding of the influence of ocean circulation and OHU on transient climate change, and of the relevance of different metrics for describing this influence. References: Frölicher, T. L. and D.J. Paynter (2015), Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075022 Peltier, W. R., and G. Vettoretti (2014), Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A "kicked" salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7306-7313 Rose, B. E. J., K. C. Armour, D. S. Battisti, N. Feldl, and D. D. B. Koll (2014), The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1071-1078 Winton M., K. Takahashi and I. M. Held (2010), Importance of ocean heat uptake efficacy to transient climate change, J. Clim., 23, 2333-44 Winton, M., S. M. Griffies, B. Samuels, J. L. Sarmiento and T. L. Frölicher (2013) Connecting changing ocean circulation with changing climate, J. Clim., 26, 2268-78

Regression tree modeling of forest NPP using site conditions and climate variables across eastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Y.

2013-12-01

As evidence of global warming continue to increase, being able to predict forest response to climate changes, such as expected rise of temperature and precipitation, will be vital for maintaining the sustainability and productivity of forests. To map forest species redistribution by climate change scenario has been successful, however, most species redistribution maps lack mechanistic understanding to explain why trees grow under the novel conditions of chaining climate. Distributional map is only capable of predicting under the equilibrium assumption that the communities would exist following a prolonged period under the new climate. In this context, forest NPP as a surrogate for growth rate, the most important facet that determines stand dynamics, can lead to valid prediction on the transition stage to new vegetation-climate equilibrium as it represents changes in structure of forest reflecting site conditions and climate factors. The objective of this study is to develop forest growth map using regression tree analysis by extracting large-scale non-linear structures from both field-based FIA and remotely sensed MODIS data set. The major issue addressed in this approach is non-linear spatial patterns of forest attributes. Forest inventory data showed complex spatial patterns that reflect environmental states and processes that originate at different spatial scales. At broad scales, non-linear spatial trends in forest attributes and mixture of continuous and discrete types of environmental variables make traditional statistical (multivariate regression) and geostatistical (kriging) models inefficient. It calls into question some traditional underlying assumptions of spatial trends that uncritically accepted in forest data. To solve the controversy surrounding the suitability of forest data, regression tree analysis are performed using Software See5 and Cubist. Four publicly available data sets were obtained: First, field-based Forest Inventory and Analysis (USDA, Forest Service) data set for the 31 eastern most United States. Second, 8-day composite of MODIS Land Cover, FPAR, LAI and GPP/NPP data were obtained from Jan 2001 to Dec 2004 (total 182 composite) and each product were filtered by pixel-level quality assurance data to select best quality pixels. Third, 30-year averaged climate data were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and five climatic variables were obtained: Monthly temperature, precipitation, annual heating and cooling days, and annual frost-free days. Forth, topographic data were obtained from digital elevation model (1km by 1km). This research will provide a better understanding of large-scale forest responses to environmental factors that will be beneficial for the development of important forest management applications.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

A 2.5-million-year perspective on coarse-filter strategies for conserving nature's stage.

PubMed

Gill, Jacquelyn L; Blois, Jessica L; Benito, Blas; Dobrowski, Solomon; Hunter, Malcolm L; McGuire, Jenny L

2015-06-01

Climate change will require novel conservation strategies. One such tactic is a coarse-filter approach that focuses on conserving nature's stage (CNS) rather than the actors (individual species). However, there is a temporal mismatch between the long-term goals of conservation and the short-term nature of most ecological studies, which leaves many assumptions untested. Paleoecology provides a valuable perspective on coarse-filter strategies by marshaling the natural experiments of the past to contextualize extinction risk due to the emerging impacts of climate change and anthropogenic threats. We reviewed examples from the paleoecological record that highlight the strengths, opportunities, and caveats of a CNS approach. We focused on the near-time geological past of the Quaternary, during which species were subjected to widespread changes in climate and concomitant changes in the physical environment in general. Species experienced a range of individualistic responses to these changes, including community turnover and novel associations, extinction and speciation, range shifts, changes in local richness and evenness, and both equilibrium and disequilibrium responses. Due to the dynamic nature of species responses to Quaternary climate change, a coarse-filter strategy may be appropriate for many taxa because it can accommodate dynamic processes. However, conservationists should also consider that the persistence of landforms varies across space and time, which could have potential long-term consequences for geodiversity and thus biodiversity. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yatsu, A.; Aydin, K. Y.; King, J. R.; McFarlane, G. A.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Kaeriyama, M.; Watanabe, Y.

2008-05-01

In order to explore mechanistic linkages between low-frequency ocean/climate variability, and fish population responses, we undertook comparative studies of time-series of recruitment-related productivity and the biomass levels of fish stocks representing five life-history strategies in the northern North Pacific between the 1950s and the present. We selected seven species: Japanese sardine ( Sardinopus melanostictus) and California sardine ( Sardinopus sagax) (opportunistic strategists), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma, intermediate strategist), pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, salmonic strategist), sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) and Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis) (periodic strategists) and spiny dogfish ( Squalus acanthias, equilibrium strategist). The responses in terms of productivity of sardine, pink salmon, sablefish and halibut to climatic regime shifts were generally immediate, delayed, or no substantial responses depending on the particular regime shift year and fish stock (population). In walleye pollock, there were some periods of high productivity and low productivity, but not coincidental to climatic regime shifts, likely due to indirect climate forcing impacts on both bottom-up and top-down processes. Biomass of zooplankton and all fish stocks examined, except for spiny dogfish whose data were limited, indicated a decadal pattern with the most gradual changes in periodic strategists and most intensive and rapid changes in opportunistic strategists. Responses of sardine productivity to regime shifts were the most intense, probably due to the absence of density-dependent effects and the availability of refuges from predators when sardine biomass was extremely low. Spiny dogfish were least affected by environmental variability. Conversely, spiny dogfish are likely to withstand only modest harvest rates due to their very low intrinsic rate of increase. Thus, each life-history strategy type had a unique response to climatic forcing, owing to their inherent biological traits such as mode, frequency and intensity of reproduction, early life style, age of maturity and longevity. On the other hand, responses of different stocks within a species to climatic regime shifts were unique to each local region, because large-scale climatic forcings are modulated by local physical, chemical and biological processes. The observed response time or absence of response in recruitment-related fish productivity to climatic regime shifts may be influenced by (1) local environmental conditions (immediate, with a delay or no effects), (2) phenological shifts in zooplankton life-history (immediate or with a delay), and (3) stochastic episodic events in both top-down and bottom-up processes (immediate, with a delay or no effects).

Climate Response to the Increase in Tropospheric Ozone since Preindustrial Times: A Comparison between Ozone and Equivalent CO2 Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Field, B. D.; Rind, D.

2004-01-01

We examine the characteristics of the climate response to anthropogenic changes in tropospheric ozone. Using a general circulation model, we have carried out a pair of equilibrium climate simulations with realistic present-day and preindustrial ozone distributions. We find that the instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.49 W m(sup -2) due to the increase in tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times results in an increase in global mean surface temperature of 0.28 C. The increase is nearly 0.4 C in the Northern Hemisphere and about 0.2 C in the Southern Hemisphere. The largest increases (greater than 0.8 C) are downwind of Europe and Asia and over the North American interior in summer. In the lower stratosphere, global mean temperatures decrease by about 0.2 C due to the diminished upward flux of radiation at 9.6 micrometers. The largest stratospheric cooling, up to 1.0 C, occurs over high northern latitudes in winter, with possibly important implications for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. To identify the characteristics of climate forcing unique to tropospheric ozone, we have conducted two additional climate equilibrium simulations: one in which preindustrial tropospheric ozone concentrations were increased everywhere by 18 ppb, producing the same global radiative forcing as present-day ozone but without the heterogeneity; and one in which CO2 was decreased by 25 ppm relative to present day, with ozone at present-day values, to again produce the same global radiative forcing but with the spectral signature of CO2 rather than ozone. In the first simulation (uniform increase of ozone), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.25 C, with an interhemispheric difference of only 0.03 C, as compared with nearly 0.2 C for the heterogeneous ozone increase. In the second simulation (equivalent CO2), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.36 C, 30% higher than the increase from tropospheric ozone. The stronger surface warming from CO2 is in part because CO2 forcing (obscured by water vapor) is shifted relatively poleward where the positive ice-albedo feedback amplifies the climate response and in part because the magnitude of the CO2 forcing in the mid-troposphere is double that of ozone. However, we find that CO2 is far less effective than tropospheric ozone in driving lower stratospheric cooling at high northern latitudes in winter.

Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.

PubMed

Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B

2018-04-01

Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability.

The null hypothesis: steady rates of erosion, weathering and sediment accumulation during Late Cenozoic mountain uplift and glaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willenbring, J. K.; Jerolmack, D. J.

2015-12-01

At the largest time and space scales, the pace of erosion and chemical weathering is determined by tectonic uplift rates. Deviations from this equilibrium condition arise from the transient response of landscape denudation to climatic and tectonic perturbations, and may be long lived. We posit that the constraint of mass balance, however, makes it unlikely that such disequilibrium persists at the global scale over millions of years, as has been proposed for late Cenozoic erosion. To support this contention, we synthesize existing data for weathering fluxes, global sedimentation rates, sediment yields and tectonic motions. The records show a remarkable constancy in the pace of Earth-surface evolution over the last 10 million years. These findings provide strong support for the null hypothesis; that global rates of landscape change have remained constant over the last ten million years, despite global climate change and massive mountain building events. Two important implications are: (1) global climate change may not change global denudation rates, because the nature and sign of landscape responses are varied; and (2) tectonic and climatic perturbations are accommodated in the long term by changes in landscape form. This work undermines the hypothesis that increased weathering due to late Cenozoic mountain building or climate change was the primary agent for a decrease in global temperatures.

A dynamical stabilizer in the climate system: a mechanism suggested by a simple model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, J. R.

1999-05-01

A simple zonally averaged hemispheric model of the climate system is constructed, based on energy equations for two ocean basins separated at 30° latitude with the surface fluxes calculated explicitly. A combination of empirical input and theoretical calculation is used to determine an annual mean equilibrium climate for the model and to study its stability with respect to small perturbations. The insolation, the mean albedos and the equilibrium temperatures for the two model zones are prescribed from observation. The principal agent of interaction between the zones is the vertically integrated poleward transport of atmospheric angular momentum across their common boundary. This is parameterized using an empirical formula derived from a multiyear atmospheric data set. The surface winds are derived from the angular momentum transport assuming the atmosphere to be in a state of dynamic balance on the climatic timescales of interest. A further assumption that the air sea temperature difference and low level relative humidity remain fixed at their mean observed values then allows the surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat to be calculated. Results from a radiative model, which show a positive lower tropospheric water vapour/infrared radiative feedback on SST perturbations in both zones, are used to calculate the net upward infrared radiative fluxes at the surface. In the model's equilibrium climate, the principal processes balancing the solar radiation absorbed at the surface are evaporation in the tropical zone and net infrared radiation in the extratropical zone. The stability of small perturbations about the equilibrium is studied using a linearized form of the ocean energy equations. Ice-albedo and cloud feedbacks are omitted and attention is focussed on the competing effects of the water vapour/infrared radiative feedback and the turbulent surface flux and oceanic heat transport feedbacks associated with the angular momentum cycle. The perturbation equations involve inter-zone coupling and have coefficients dependent on the values of the equilibrium fluxes and the sensitivity of the angular momentum transport. Analytical solutions for the perturbations are obtained. These provide criteria for the stability of the equilibrium climate. If the evaporative feedback on SST perturbations is omitted, the equilibrium climate is unstable due to the influence of the water vapour/infrared radiative feedback, which dominates over the effects of the sensible heat and ocean heat transport feedbacks. The inclusion of evaporation gives a negative feedback which is of sufficient strength to stabilize the system. The stabilizing mechanism involves wind and humidity factors in the evaporative fluxes that are of comparable magnitude. Both factors involve the angular momentum transport. In including angular momentum and calculating the surface fluxes explicitly, the model presented here differs from the many simple climate models based on the Budyko Sellers formulation. In that formulation, an atmospheric energy balance equation is used to eliminate surface fluxes in favour of top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes and meridional atmospheric energy transports. In the resulting models, infrared radiation appears as a stabilizing influence on SST perturbations and the dynamical stabilizing mechanism found here cannot be identified.

Trans-pacific glacial response to the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the southern mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagredo, Esteban A.; Kaplan, Michael R.; Araya, Paola S.; Lowell, Thomas V.; Aravena, Juan C.; Moreno, Patricio I.; Kelly, Meredith A.; Schaefer, Joerg M.

2018-05-01

Elucidating the timing and regional extent of abrupt climate events during the last glacial-interglacial transition (∼18-11.5 ka) is critical for identifying spatial patterns and mechanisms responsible for large-magnitude climate events. The record of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere during this time period, however, remains scarce and unevenly distributed. We present new geomorphic, chronological, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) data from a climatically sensitive mountain glacier at Monte San Lorenzo (47°S), Central Patagonia. Twenty-four new cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from moraines provide a comprehensive glacial record in the mid-latitudes of South America, which constrain the timing, spatial extent and magnitude of glacial fluctuations during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR, ∼14.5-12.9 ka). Río Tranquilo glacier advanced and reached a maximum extent at 13.9 ± 0.7 ka. Three additional inboard moraines afford statistically similar ages, indicating repeated glacier expansions or marginal fluctuations over the ACR. Our record represents the northernmost robust evidence of glacial fluctuations during the ACR in southern South America, documenting not only the timing of the ACR maximum, but also the sequence of glacier changes within this climate event. Based on ELA reconstructions, we estimate a cooling of >1.6-1.8 °C at the peak of the ACR. The Río Tranquilo record along with existing glacial reconstructions from New Zealand (43°S) and paleovegetation records from northwestern (41°S) and central-west (45°S) Patagonia, suggest an uniform trans-Pacific glacier-climate response to an ACR trigger across the southern mid-latitudes. We posit that the equatorial migration of the southern westerly winds provides an adequate mechanism to propagate a common ACR signal across the Southern Hemisphere.

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. D.; Ingram, W. J.; Gregory, J. M.

2009-04-01

Effective climate sensitivity is often assumed to be constant (if uncertain), but some previous studies of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have found it varying as the simulation progresses. This complicates the fitting of simple models to such simulations, as well as having implications for the estimation of climate sensitivity from observations. This study examines the evolution of the feedbacks determining the climate sensitivity in GCMs submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Apparent centennial-timescale variations of effective climate sensitivity during stabilisation to a forcing can be considered an artefact of using conventional forcings which only allow for instantaneous effects and stratospheric adjustment. If the forcing is adjusted for processes occurring on timescales which are short compared to the climate stabilisation timescale then there is little centennial timescale evolution of effective climate sensitivity in any of the GCMs. We suggest that much of the apparent variation in effective climate sensitivity identified in previous studies is actually due to the comparatively fast forcing adjustment. Persistent differences are found in the strength of the feedbacks between the coupled atmosphere - ocean (AO) versions and their atmosphere - mixed-layer ocean (AML) counterparts, (the latter are often assumed to give the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the AOGCM). The AML model can typically only estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the parallel AO version to within about 0.5K. The adjustment to the forcing to account for comparatively fast processes varies in magnitude and sign between GCMs, as well as differing between AO and AML versions of the same model. There is evidence from one AOGCM that the forcing adjustment may take a couple of decades, with implications for observationally based estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. We suggest that at least some of the spread in 21st century global temperature predictions between GCMs is due to differing adjustment processes, hence work to understand these differences should be a priority.

Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Peña-Gómez, Francisco T; Guerrero, Pablo C; Bizama, Gustavo; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O

2014-01-01

Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche conservatism but there is potential for further expansion in Chile.

Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2015-04-01

Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705.

Hypsometric control on glacier mass balance sensitivity in Alaska and northwest Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, D.; Sass, L.; O'Neel, S.; Arendt, A.; Kienholz, C.

2017-03-01

Glacier hypsometry provides a first-order approach for assessing a glacier's response to climate forcings. We couple the Randolph Glacier Inventory to a suite of in situ observations and climate model output to examine potential change for the ˜27,000 glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada through the end of the 21st century. By 2100, based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5-8.5 forcings, summer temperatures are predicted to increase between +2.1 and +4.6°C, while solid precipitation (snow) is predicted to decrease by -6 to -11%, despite a +9 to +21% increase in total precipitation. Snow is predicted to undergo a pronounced decrease in the fall, shifting the start of the accumulation season back by ˜1 month. In response to these forcings, the regional equilibrium line altitude (ELA) may increase by +105 to +225 m by 2100. The mass balance sensitivity to this increase is highly variable, with the most substantive impact for glaciers with either limited elevation ranges (often small (<1 km2) glaciers, which account for 80% of glaciers in the region) or those with top-heavy geometries, like icefields. For more than 20% of glaciers, future ELAs, given RCP 6.0 forcings, will exceed the maximum elevation of the glacier, resulting in their eventual demise, while for others, accumulation area ratios will decrease by >60%. Our results highlight the first-order control of hypsometry on individual glacier response to climate change, and the variability that hypsometry introduces to a regional response to a coherent climate perturbation.

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

2018-01-17

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

2018-01-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

Arctic climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Battisti, D. S.; Bitz, C. M.

2010-12-01

Recent warming and record summer sea-ice area minimums have spurred expressions of concern for arctic ecosystems, permafrost, and polar bear populations, among other things. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to deliberately cancel the anthropogenic temperature rise has been put forth as a possible solution to restoring Arctic (and global) climate to modern conditions. However, climate is particularly sensitive in the northern high latitudes, responding easily to radiative forcing changes. To that end, we explore the extent to which tropical injections of stratospheric sulfate aerosol can accomplish regional cancellation in the Arctic. We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 global climate model to execute simulations with combinations of doubled CO2 and imposed stratospheric sulfate burdens to investigate the effects on high latitude climate. We further explore the sensitivity of the polar climate to ocean dynamics by running a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics, transiently and to equilibrium respectively. We find that, although annual, global mean temperature cancellation is accomplished, there is over-cooling on land in Arctic summer, but residual warming in Arctic winter, which is largely due to atmospheric circulation changes. Furthermore, the spatial extent of these features and their concurrent impacts on sea-ice properties are modified by the inclusion of ocean dynamical feedbacks.

Climate change enhances the mobilisation of naturally occurring metals in high altitude environments.

PubMed

Zaharescu, Dragos G; Hooda, Peter S; Burghelea, Carmen I; Polyakov, Viktor; Palanca-Soler, Antonio

2016-08-01

Manmade climate change has expressed a plethora of complex effects on Earth's biogeochemical compartments. Climate change may also affect the mobilisation of natural metal sources, with potential ecological consequences beyond mountains' geographical limits; however, this question has remained largely unexplored. We investigated this by analysing a number of key climatic factors in relationship with trace metal accumulation in the sediment core of a Pyrenean lake. The sediment metal contents showed increasing accumulation trend over time, and their levels varied in step with recent climate change. The findings further revealed that a rise in the elevation of freezing level, a general increase in the frequency of drier periods, changes in the frequency of winter freezing days and a reducing snow cover since the early 1980s, together are responsible for the observed variability and augmented accumulation of trace metals. Our results provide clear evidence of increased mobilisation of natural metal sources - an overlooked effect of climate change on the environment. With further alterations in climate equilibrium predicted over the ensuing decades, it is likely that mountain catchments in metamorphic areas may become significant sources of trace metals, with potentially harmful consequences for the wider environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unexpected patterns of vegetation distribution response and climate change velocities in cold ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias-Fauria, M.; Johnson, E. A.; Forbes, B. C.; Willis, K. J.

2013-12-01

In cold ecosystems such as sub-alpine forests and forest-tundra, vegetation geographical ranges are expected to expand upward/northward in a warmer world. Such moving fronts have been predicted to 1) decrease the remaining alpine area in mountain systems, increasing fragmentation and extinction risk of many alpine taxa, and 2) fundamentally modify the energy budget of newly afforested areas, enhancing further regional warming due to a reduction in albedo. The latter is particularly significant in the forest-tundra, where changes over large regions can have regional-to-global effects on climate. An integral part of the expected range shifts is their velocity. Whereas range shifts across thermal gradients can theoretically be fast in an elevation gradient relative to climate velocity (i.e. rate of climate change) due to the short distances involved, large lags are expected over the flat forest-tundra. Mountain regions have thus been identified as buffer areas where species can track climate change, in opposition to flat terrain where climate velocity is faster. Thus, much shorter time-to-equilibrium are expected for advancing upslope sub-alpine forest than for advancing northern boreal forest. We contribute to this discussion by showing two mechanisms that might largely alter the above predictions in opposite directions: 1) In mountain regions, terrain heterogeneity not only allows for slower climate velocities, but slope processes largely affect the advance of vegetation. Indeed, such mechanisms can potentially reduce the climatic signal in vegetation distribution limits (e.g. treeline), precluding it from migrating to climatically favourable areas - since these areas occur in geologically unfavourable ones. Such seemingly local control to species range shifts was found to reduce the climate-sensitive treeline areas in the sub-alpine forest of the Canadian Rocky Mountains to ~5% at a landscape scale, fundamentally altering the predictions of vegetation response to climate warming in the region (Macias-Fauria & Johnson 20013, PNAS). 2) In the low arctic tundra, un-treed to treed landscapes have sprouted in several parts of the tundra in a matter of decades, as opposed to the previously predicted response times of several centuries for boreal forest to advance to its new climate optimum (migrational lags). This takes place not through very rapid moving fronts, but through phenotypic responses of extant vegetation with highly flexible life forms, such as woody deciduous shrubs (Salix, Alnus, Betula). The resulting vegetation response creates strong energy feedbacks while at the same time potentially further reduces the speed of northward displacement of the boreal forest, that has to compete with a new treed ecosystem (Macias-Fauria et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change). In conclusion, control of rates of migration by factors other than climate in mountain systems can largely reduce the ability of vegetation to track climate change, and emergence of structurally novel ecosystems in low arctic tundra might largely alter current predictions based on climate response of vegetation, by accelerating ecosystem change and reducing migrational rates simultaneously.

The dynamics of climate-induced deglacial ice stream acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.; Tziperman, E.

2015-12-01

Geological observations indicate that ice streams were a significant contributor to ice flow in the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Conceptual and simple model studies have also argued that the gradual development of ice streams increases the sensitivity of large ice sheets to weak climate forcing. In this study, we use an idealized configuration of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to explore the role of ice streams in rapid deglaciation. In a growing ice sheet, ice streams develop gradually as the bed warms and the margin expands outward onto the continental shelf. Then, a weak change in equilibrium line altitude commensurate with Milankovitch forcing results in a rapid deglacial response, as ice stream acceleration leads to enhanced calving and surface melting at low elevations. We explain the dynamical mechanism that drives this ice stream acceleration and its broader applicability as a feedback for enhancing ice sheet decay in response to climate forcing. We show how our idealized ice sheet simulations match geomorphological observations of deglacial ice stream variability and previous model-data analyses. We conclude with observations on the potential for interaction between ice streams and other feedback mechanisms within the earth system.

Predictions and Tests of the "Late Noachian Icy Highlands" Climate Model: Can Evidence for Fluvial/Lacustrine Systems Be Reconciled?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III

2016-12-01

Improved 3D global simulations (GCMs) of the early martian climate have found that for atmospheric pressures greater than a fraction of a bar, atmospheric-surface thermal coupling occurs and the adiabatic cooling effect (ACE) causes temperatures in the southern uplands to fall significantly below the global average. Long-term climate evolution simulations indicate that in these circumstances, water ice is transported to the highlands from low-lying regions for a wide range of obliquities. Conditions are too cold (MAT 225 K) to permit the presence of long-term surface liquid water, including streams, lakes and oceans. The LNIH equilibrium state predicts: 1) a global permafrost layer, 2) a horizontally stratified hydrological cycle/system, 3) thick ice deposits in the southern uplands, 4) an extended water ice cap on the southern pole, and 5) no rainfall, streams lakes or oceans. The majority of these predictions are in direct conflict with the observed fluvial/lacustrine geologic record. Can non-equilibrium conditions in a LNIH scenario explain these conflicts by transient heating and melting of the LNIH? As steps in the comprehensive testing of this "Late Noachian Icy Highlands" (LNIH) model we explore the predictions for geologic settings and processes in both equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate states. We assess the following sources of disequilibrium: 1) Top-down heating and melting: a) impact cratering, b) extrusive/explosive volcanism, and c) short-term emission of greenhouse gases. 2) Bottom up heating and melting: a) enhanced regional-global geothermal gradients, and b) thick ice accumulation to cause/sustain basal melting, wet-based glaciation and runoff. We assess these disequilibrium mechanisms in terms of: 1) the altitude dependence of melting, 2) melting duration, 3) volumes of meltwater produced, 4) predicted locations of meltwater production, and 6) comparison to the distribution of fluvial/lacustrine features. We find that the Late Noachian Icy Highlands climate model cannot be reconciled with observations unless punctuated non-equilibrium conditions occur. We show that the best candidates for LNIH disequilibrium conditions involve top-down heating and melting conditions chronologically summing in duration to more than tens of thousands to millions of years.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M.M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models

PubMed Central

Knight, Christopher G.; Knight, Sylvia H. E.; Massey, Neil; Aina, Tolu; Christensen, Carl; Frame, Dave J.; Kettleborough, Jamie A.; Martin, Andrew; Pascoe, Stephen; Sanderson, Ben; Stainforth, David A.; Allen, Myles R.

2007-01-01

In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally. PMID:17640921

Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project:Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1995-12-01

We compare the simulations of three biogeography models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS)) and three biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemistry Cycles), CENTURY, and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary conditions of atmospheric CO2 and climate. We also compare the simulations of these models under doubled CO2 and a range of climate scenarios. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models successfully simulate the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and have similar estimates of area for forests (42 to 46% of the conterminous United States), grasslands (17 to 27%), savannas (15 to 25%), and shrublands (14 to 18%). The biogeochemistry models estimate similar continental-scale net primary production (NPP; 3125 to 3772 × 1012 gC yr-1) and total carbon storage (108 to 118 × 1015 gC) for contemporary conditions. Among the scenarios of doubled CO2 and associated equilibrium climates produced by the three general circulation models (Oregon State University (OSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)), all three biogeography models show both gains and losses of total forest area depending on the scenario (between 38 and 53% of conterminous United States area). The only consistent gains in forest area with all three models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) were under the GFDL scenario due to large increases in precipitation. MAPSS lost forest area under UKMO, DOLY under OSU, and BIOME2 under both UKMO and OSU. The variability in forest area estimates occurs because the hydrologic cycles of the biogeography models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. However, in general, the biogeography models produced broadly similar results when incorporating both climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations. For these scenarios, the NPP estimated by the biogeochemistry models increases between 2% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) and 35% (TEM with UKMO climate). Changes in total carbon storage range from losses of 33% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) to gains of 16% (TEM with OSU climate). The CENTURY responses of NPP and carbon storage are positive and intermediate to the responses of BIOME-BGC and TEM. The variability in carbon cycle responses occurs because the hydrologic and nitrogen cycles of the biogeochemistry models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. When the biogeochemistry models are run with the vegetation distributions of the biogeography models, NPP ranges from no response (BIOME-BGC with all three biogeography model vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 40% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU climate). The total carbon storage response ranges from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to an increase of 32% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are primarily caused by decreases in forested area and temperature-induced water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with MAPSS vegetations are primarily caused by forest expansion and temperature-enhanced nitrogen cycling.

Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project: Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melillo, J. M.; Borchers, J.; Chaney, J.; Fisher, H.; Fox, S.; Haxeltine, A.; Janetos, A.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Kittel, T. G. F.; McGuire, A. D.; McKeown, R.; Neilson, R.; Nemani, R.; Ojima, D. S.; Painter, T.

1995-12-01

We compare the simulations of three biogeography models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS)) and three biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemistry Cycles), CENTURY, and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary conditions of atmospheric CO2 and climate. We also compare the simulations of these models under doubled CO2 and a range of climate scenarios. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models successfully simulate the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and have similar estimates of area for forests (42 to 46% of the conterminous United States), grasslands (17 to 27%), savannas (15 to 25%), and shrublands (14 to 18%). The biogeochemistry models estimate similar continental-scale net primary production (NPP; 3125 to 3772×1012 gCyr-1) and total carbon storage (108 to 118×1015 gC) for contemporary conditions. Among the scenarios of doubled CO2 and associated equilibrium climates produced by the three general circulation models (Oregon State University (OSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)), all three biogeography models show both gains and losses of total forest area depending on the scenario (between 38 and 53% of conterminous United States area). The only consistent gains in forest area with all three models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) were under the GFDL scenario due to large increases in precipitation. MAPSS lost forest area under UKMO, DOLY under OSU, and BIOME2 under both UKMO and OSU. The variability in forest area estimates occurs because the hydrologic cycles of the biogeography models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. However, in general, the biogeography models produced broadly similar results when incorporating both climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations. For these scenarios, the NPP estimated by the biogeochemistry models increases between 2% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) and 35% (TEM with UKMO climate). Changes in total carbon storage range from losses of 33% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) to gains of 16% (TEM with OSU climate). The CENTURY responses of NPP and carbon storage are positive and intermediate to the responses of BIOME-BGC and TEM. The variability in carbon cycle responses occurs because the hydrologic and nitrogen cycles of the biogeochemistry models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. When the biogeochemistry models are run with the vegetation distributions of the biogeography models, NPP ranges from no response (BIOME-BGC with all three biogeography model vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 40% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU climate). The total carbon storage response ranges from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to an increase of 32% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are primarily caused by decreases in forested area and temperature-induced water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with MAPSS vegetations are primarily caused by forest expansion and temperature-enhanced nitrogen cycling.

Venus climate stability and volcanic resurfacing rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bullock, M. A.; Grinspoon, D. H.; Pollack, J. B.

1994-01-01

The climate of Venus is to a large degree controlled by the radiative properties of its massive atmosphere. In addition, outgassing due to volcanic activity, exospheric escape processes, and surface/atmosphere interactions may all be important in moderating the abundances of atmospheric CO2 and other volatiles. We have developed an evolutionary climate model for Venus using a systems approach that emphasizes feedbacks between elements in the climate system. Modules for atmospheric radiative transfer, surface/atmosphere interactions, tropospheric chemistry, and exospheric escape processes have so far been developed. Climate feedback loops result from interconnections between modules, in the form of the environmental parameters pressure, temperature, and atmospheric mixing ratios. The radiative transfer module has been implemented by using Rosseland mean opacities in a one dimensional grey radiative-convective model. The model has been solved for the static (time independent) case to determine climate equilibrium points. The dynamics of the model have also been explored by employing reaction/diffusion kinetics for possible surface atmosphere heterogeneous reactions over geologic timescales. It was found that under current conditions, the model predicts that the climate of Venus is at or near an unstable equilibrium point. The effects of constant rate volcanism and corresponding exsolution of volatiles on the stability of the climate model were also explored.

Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Botí, M. A.; Foster, G. L.; Chalk, T. B.; Rohling, E. J.; Sexton, P. F.; Lunt, D. J.; Pancost, R. D.; Badger, M. P. S.; Schmidt, D. N.

2015-02-01

Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

On the Meaning of Feedback Parameter, Transient Climate Response, and the Greenhouse Effect: Basic Considerations and the Discussion of Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramm, Gerhard

2010-07-01

In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the corresponding planetary radiation balance we state that (a) the this globally averaged energy balance model is flawed by unsuitable physical considerations, (b) the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is fraught by the inappropriate assumption of a uniform surface temperature, the so-called radiative equilibrium temperature of about 255 K, and (c) the effect of the radiative anthropogenic forcing, considered as a perturbation to the natural system, is much smaller than the uncertainty involved in the solution of the model of Schneider and Mass. This uncertainty is mainly related to the empirical constants suggested by various authors and used for predicting the emission of infrared radiation by the Earth's skin. Furthermore, after inserting the absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric constituents and the exchange of sensible and latent heat between the Earth and the atmosphere into the model of Schneider and Mass the surface temperatures become appreciably lesser than the radiative equilibrium temperature. Moreover, neither the model of Schneider and Mass nor the Dines-type two-layer energy balance model for the Earth-atmosphere system, both contain the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere as an asymptotic solution, do not provide evidence for the existence of the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect if realistic empirical data are used.

Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China.

PubMed

Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Qu, Hong; Liu, Ran; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang

2018-04-15

China has large areas of forest vegetation that are critical to biodiversity and carbon storage. It is important to assess vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China because it may change the distributions and species compositions of forest vegetation. Based on the equilibrium assumption of forest communities across different spatial and temporal scales, we used species distribution modelling coupled with endemics-area relationship to assess the vulnerability of 204 forest communities across 16 vegetation types under different climate change scenarios in China. By mapping the vulnerability of forest vegetation to climate change, we determined that 78.9% and 61.8% of forest vegetation should be relatively stable in the low and high concentration scenarios, respectively. There were large vulnerable areas of forest vegetation under anthropogenic climate change in northeastern and southwestern China. The vegetation of subtropical mixed broadleaf evergreen and deciduous forest, cold-temperate and temperate mountains needleleaf forest, and temperate mixed needleleaf and broadleaf deciduous forest types were the most vulnerable under climate change. Furthermore, the vulnerability of forest vegetation may increase due to high greenhouse gas concentrations. Given our estimates of forest vegetation vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical that we ensure long-term monitoring of forest vegetation responses to future climate change to assess our projections against observations. We need to better integrate projected changes of temperature and precipitation into climate-adaptive conservation strategies for forest vegetation in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 falls between 2.0 and 4.6 K in current climate models, and they suggest a weak increase in global mean precipitation. Inferences from the observational record, however, place climate sensitivity near the lower end of this range and indicate that models underestimate some of the changes in the hydrological cycle. These discrepancies raise the possibility that important feedbacks are missing from the models. A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations. Alternative suggestions for shortcomings of models -- such as aerosol cooling, volcanic eruptions or insufficient ocean heat uptake -- may explain a slow observed transient warming relative to models, but not the observed enhancement of the hydrological cycle. We propose that, if precipitating convective clouds are more likely to cluster into larger clouds as temperatures rise, this process could constitute a plausible physical mechanism for an iris effect.

Soil Moisture and the Persistence of North American Drought.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Erickson, David J., III

1989-11-01

We describe numerical sensitivity experiments exploring the effects of soil moisture on North American summertime climate using the NCAR CCMI, a 12-layer global atmospheric general circulation model. In particular. the hypothesis that reduced soil moisture may help induce and amplify warm, dry summers over midlatitude continental interiors is examined. Equilibrium climate statistics are computed for the perpetual July model response to imposed soil moisture anomalies over North America between 36° and 49°N. In addition, the persistence of imposed soil moisture anomalies is examined through use of the seasonal cycle mode of operation with use of various initial atmospheric states both equilibrated and nonequilibrated to the initial soil moisture anomaly.The climate statistics generated by thew model simulations resemble in a general way those of the summer of 1988, when extensive heat and drought occurred over much of North America. A reduction in soil moisture in the model leads to an increase in surface temperature, lower surface pressure, increased ridging aloft, and a northward shift of the jet stream. Low-level moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico is important in determining where persistent soil moisture deficits can be maintained. In seasonal cycle simulations, it lock longer for an initially unequilibrated atmosphere to respond to the imposed soil moisture anomaly, via moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, than when initially the atmosphere was in equilibrium with the imposed anomaly., i.e., the initial state was obtained from the appropriate perpetual July simulation. The results demonstrate the important role of soil moisture in prolonging and/or amplifying North American summertime drought.

Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

2018-03-01

RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

Incorporating water table dynamics in climate modeling: 1. Water table observations and equilibrium water table simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Ying; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Weaver, Christopher P.; Walko, Robert; Robock, Alan

2007-05-01

Soil moisture is a key participant in land-atmosphere interactions and an important determinant of terrestrial climate. In regions where the water table is shallow, soil moisture is coupled to the water table. This paper is the first of a two-part study to quantify this coupling and explore its implications in the context of climate modeling. We examine the observed water table depth in the lower 48 states of the United States in search of salient spatial and temporal features that are relevant to climate dynamics. As a means to interpolate and synthesize the scattered observations, we use a simple two-dimensional groundwater flow model to construct an equilibrium water table as a result of long-term climatic and geologic forcing. Model simulations suggest that the water table depth exhibits spatial organization at watershed, regional, and continental scales, which may have implications for the spatial organization of soil moisture at similar scales. The observations suggest that water table depth varies at diurnal, event, seasonal, and interannual scales, which may have implications for soil moisture memory at these scales.

Irrigation Requirement Estimation Using Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Franks, Shannon

2010-01-01

We explore an inverse biophysical modeling process forced by satellite and climatological data to quantify irrigation requirements in semi-arid agricultural areas. We constrain the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium, balance between vegetation and climate, and non-equilibrium, water added through irrigation. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated dry lands vary from equilibrium climate conditions is related to the amount of irrigation. The amount of water required over and above precipitation is considered as an irrigation requirement. For July, results show that spray irrigation resulted in an additional amount of water of 1.3 mm per occurrence with a frequency of 24.6 hours. In contrast, the drip irrigation required only 0.6 mm every 45.6 hours or 46% of that simulated by the spray irrigation. The modeled estimates account for 87% of the total reported irrigation water use, when soil salinity is not important and 66% in saline lands.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

PubMed Central

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-01-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state. PMID:27461560

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-07-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land.

PubMed

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M

2016-07-27

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or "committed" warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

Numerical Modeling of River Fluxes Under Changing Environmental Conditions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, G.

2013-12-01

High frequency climate cycles have a major impact on landscapes, but it remains uncertain if alluvial rivers can transfer the resulting sediment pulses downstream to sedimentary basins. Stratigraphic records located near the mouth of rivers exhibit cyclicity consistent with orbital forcing. However, in some cases, the sediment supply from rivers appears to have remained remarkably constant despite changes in climate, which has been interpreted to indicate that rivers dampen rapid variability. Here, we employ a physically-based numerical model to resolve this outstanding problem. Our simulations show that rivers forced with water flux cycles exhibit highly pulsed sediment outflux records, even when the period of forcing is several orders of magnitude shorter than river response times. This non-linear amplified system response characterised by positive feedback is related to the strong negative correlation between water flux and the equilibrium slope of a river. We also show that the apparent stability of sediment fluxes based on time-averaged data is an artifact of integrating highly episodic records over multiple cycles rather than a signature of diffusive floodplain processes. We conclude that marine sedimentary basins may record sediment-flux cycles resulting from discharge (and ultimately climate) variability, whereas they may be relatively insensitive to pure sediment-flux perturbations (such as for example those induced by tectonics).

Ecological optimality in water-limited natural soil-vegetation systems. I - Theory and hypothesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eagleson, P. S.

1982-01-01

The solution space of an approximate statistical-dynamic model of the average annual water balance is explored with respect to the hydrologic parameters of both soil and vegetation. Within the accuracy of this model it is shown that water-limited natural vegetation systems are in stable equilibrium with their climatic and pedologic environments when the canopy density and species act to minimize average water demand stress. Theory shows a climatic limit to this equilibrium above which it is hypothesized that ecological pressure is toward maximization of biomass productivity. It is further hypothesized that natural soil-vegetation systems will develop gradually and synergistically, through vegetation-induced changes in soil structure, toward a set of hydraulic soil properties for which the minimum stress canopy density of a given species is maximum in a given climate. Using these hypotheses, only the soil effective porosity need be known to determine the optimum soil and vegetation parameters in a given climate.

Climate simulations and projections with a super-parameterized climate model

DOE PAGES

Stan, Cristiana; Xu, Li

2014-07-01

The mean climate and its variability are analyzed in a suite of numerical experiments with a fully coupled general circulation model in which subgrid-scale moist convection is explicitly represented through embedded 2D cloud-system resolving models. Control simulations forced by the present day, fixed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are conducted using two horizontal resolutions and validated against observations and reanalyses. The mean state simulated by the higher resolution configuration has smaller biases. Climate variability also shows some sensitivity to resolution but not as uniform as in the case of mean state. The interannual and seasonal variability are better represented in themore » simulation at lower resolution whereas the subseasonal variability is more accurate in the higher resolution simulation. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of the model is estimated from a simulation forced by an abrupt quadrupling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The equilibrium climate sensitivity temperature of the model is 2.77 °C, and this value is slightly smaller than the mean value (3.37 °C) of contemporary models using conventional representation of cloud processes. As a result, the climate change simulation forced by the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario projects an increase in the frequency of severe droughts over most of the North America.« less

Estimating Irrigation Water Requirements using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Harriss, Robert; Harriss, Robert; Wells, Gordon; Glantz, Michael; Dukhovny, Victor A.; Orlovsky, Leah

2007-01-01

An inverse process approach using satellite-driven (MODIS) biophysical modeling was used to quantitatively assess water resource demand in semi-arid and arid agricultural lands by comparing the carbon and water flux modeled under both equilibrium (in balance with prevailing climate) and non-equilibrium (irrigated) conditions. Since satellite observations of irrigated areas show higher leaf area indices (LAI) than is supportable by local precipitation, we postulate that the degree to which irrigated lands vary from equilibrium conditions is related to the amount of irrigation water used. For an observation year we used MODIS vegetation indices, local climate data, and the SiB2 photosynthesis-conductance model to examine the relationship between climate and the water stress function for a given grid-cell and observed leaf area. To estimate the minimum amount of supplemental water required for an observed cell, we added enough precipitation to the prevailing climatology at each time step to minimize the water stress function and bring the soil to field capacity. The experiment was conducted on irrigated lands on the U.S. Mexico border and Central Asia and compared to estimates of irrigation water used.

Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records.

PubMed

Martínez-Botí, M A; Foster, G L; Chalk, T B; Rohling, E J; Sexton, P F; Lunt, D J; Pancost, R D; Badger, M P S; Schmidt, D N

2015-02-05

Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. H.

1984-01-01

The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ullman, D. J.; LeGrande, A. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Anslow, F. S.; Licciardi, J. M.

2014-01-01

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

Do Southern Ocean Cloud Feedbacks Matter for 21st Century Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W. R.; Maroon, E. A.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Cloud phase improvements in a state-of-the-art climate model produce a large 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, the surface warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2) via extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. Here we show that the same model improvements produce only a small surface warming increase in a realistic 21st century emissions scenario. The small 21st century warming increase is attributed to extratropical ocean heat uptake. Southern Ocean mean-state circulation takes up heat while a slowdown in North Atlantic circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. Persistent heat uptake by extratropical oceans implies that extratropical cloud biases may not be as important to 21st century warming as biases in other regions. Observational constraints on cloud phase and shortwave radiation that produce a large ECS increase do not imply large changes in 21st century warming.

The role of sea ice dynamics in global climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibler, William D., III

1992-01-01

The topics covered include the following: general characteristics of sea ice drift; sea ice rheology; ice thickness distribution; sea ice thermodynamic models; equilibrium thermodynamic models; effect of internal brine pockets and snow cover; model simulations of Arctic Sea ice; and sensitivity of sea ice models to climate change.

VULNERABILITY OF ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, USA, TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in the distribution of vegetation in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States were explored for two climate-change scenarios. The equilibrium vegetation ecology (EVE) model was used to project the distribution of life forms and to combine these into biomes for a doubl...

Plot- and landscape-level changes in climate and vegetation following defoliation of exotic saltcedar (Tamarix sp.) from the biocontrol agent Diorhabda carinulata along a stream in the Mojave Desert (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, H.L.; Nagler, P.L.; Glenn, E.P.

2013-01-01

The biocontrol agent, northern tamarisk beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), has been used to defoliate non-native saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) in USA western riparian systems since 2001. Biocontrol has the potential to impact biotic communities and climatic conditions in affected riparian areas. To determine the relationships between biocontrol establishment and effects on vegetation and climate at the plot and landscape scales, we measured temperature, relative humidity, foliage canopy, solar radiation, and used satellite imagery to assess saltcedar defoliation and evapotranspiration (ET) along the Virgin River in the Mojave Desert. Following defoliation solar radiation increased, daily humidity decreased, and maximum daily temperatures tended to increase. MODIS and Landsat satellite imagery showed defoliation was widespread, resulting in reductions in ET and vegetation indices. Because biocontrol beetles are spreading into new saltcedar habitats on arid western rivers, and the eventual equilibrium between beetles and saltcedar is unknown, it is necessary to monitor trends for ecosystem functions and higher trophic-level responses in habitats impacted by biocontrol.

Model-Simulated Northern Winter Cyclone and Anticyclone Activity under a Greenhouse Warming Scenario.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Wang, Wei-Chyung

1997-07-01

Two 100-yr equilibrium simulations from the NCAR Community Climate Model coupled to a nondynamic slab ocean are used to investigate the activity of northern winter extratropical cyclones and anticyclones under a greenhouse warming scenario. The first simulation uses the 1990 observed CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, and CFC-12 concentrations, and the second adopts the year 2050 concentrations according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change business-as-usual scenario. Variables that describe the characteristic properties of the cyclone-scale eddies, such as surface cyclone and anticyclone frequency and the bandpassed root-mean-square of 500-hPa geopotential height, along with the Eady growth rate maximum, form a framework for the analysis of the cyclone and anticyclone activity.Objective criteria are developed for identifying cyclone and anticyclone occurrences based on the 1000-hPa geopotential height and vorticity fields and tested using ECMWF analyses. The potential changes of the eddy activity under the greenhouse warming climate are then examined. Results indicate that the activity of cyclone-scale eddies decreases under the greenhouse warming scenario. This is not only reflected in the surface cyclone and anticyclone frequency and in the bandpassed rms of 500-hPa geopotential height, but is also discerned from the Eady growth rate maximum. Based on the analysis, three different physical mechanisms responsible for the decreased eddy activity are discussed: 1) a decrease of the extratropical meridional temperature gradient from the surface to the midtroposphere, 2) a reduction in the land-sea thermal contrast in the east coastal regions of the Asian and North American continents, and 3) an increase in the eddy meridional latent heat fluxes. Uncertainties in the results related to the limitations of the model and the model equilibrium simulations are discussed.

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species.

PubMed

Stenseth, Nils Chr; Durant, Joël M; Fowler, Mike S; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C; Visser, Marcel E; Dhondt, André A

2015-05-22

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Determining the Current and Future Health of Low-Latitude Andean Glaciers Using an Equilibrium Line Altitude Model and Hypsometric Data from the Randolph Glacier Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2015-12-01

Mountain glaciers have been described as the water towers of world, and for many populations in the low-latitude South American Andes, glacial runoff is vital for agricultural, industrial, and basic water needs. Previous studies of low-latitude Andean glaciers suggest a precarious future due to contemporary warming. These studies have looked at trends in freezing level heights or observations of contemporary retreat. However, regional-scale understanding of low-latitude glacial responses to present and future climate change is limited, in part due to incomplete information about the extent and elevation distribution of low-latitude glaciers. The recently published Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) (5.0) provides the necessary information about the size and elevation distribution of low-latitude glaciers to begin such studies. We determine the contemporary equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for low-latitude Andean glaciers in the RGI, using a numerical energy balance ablation model driven with reanalysis and gridded data products. Contemporary ELAs tend to fall around the peak of the elevation histogram, with an exception being the southern-most outer tropical glaciers whose modeled ELAs tend to be higher than the elevation histogram for that region (see below figure). Also, we use the linear tends in temperature and precipitation from the contemporary climatology to extrapolate 21stcentury climate forcings. Modeled ELAs by the middle on the century are universally predicted to rise, with outer tropical ELAs rising more than the inner tropical glaciers. These trends continue through the end of the century. Finally, we explore how climate variables and parameters in our numerical model may vary for different warming scenarios from United Nation's IPCC AR5 report. We quantify the impacts of these changes on ELAs for various climate change trajectories. These results support previous work on the precarious future of low latitude Andean glaciers, while providing a richer understanding of the glacial impacts of contemporary and future warming. Also, this work provides analysis of processes and feedbacks between different climate variables important to glacier mass balances in a warming world, improving predictions for the fate of low-latitude Andean glaciers.

Challenges and approaches to projecting changes in forest distributions in complex mountain landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kueppers, L. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Meromy, L.; Moyes, A. B.; Conlisk, E.; Castanha, C.

2015-12-01

The extent and density of forest trees in mountain landscapes is a first order control on watershed function, affecting patterns of snow accumulation, timing of snowmelt, and amount and quality of run-off, through alterations of surface energy and water fluxes and wind. Climate change is increasingly affecting the density and distribution of mature forests through changes to disturbance regimes, increases in physiological stress and increases in mortality due to warmer temperatures. In addition, climate change is likely altering patterns of regeneration and driving establishment of trees in high elevation meadows and alpine tundra. Though hard to detect in current forestry datasets, changes in tree establishment are critical to the future of forests. Experimental approaches, such as our climate warming experiment in the Colorado Front Range, can provide valuable data regarding seedling sensitivity to climate variability and change across important landscape positions. We've found that warming enhances negative effects of water stress across forest, treeline and alpine sites, reducing recruitment in the absence of additional summer moisture. At the lowest elevation, reductions with warming have reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment to zero. Species differ in their responses to warming in the alpine, but together confirm the importance of seed dispersal to upward forest shifts. The presence of trees or other vegetation can facilitate tree establishment by modifying microclimates, especially at and above treeline. Ultimately, these ecological and demographic processes govern the timescales of tree and forest responses to climate variability and change. For the long-lived species that dominate high elevation watersheds, these processes can take decades or centuries to play out, meaning many tree populations are and will continue to be out of equilibrium with a rapidly changing climate. Projecting changes in tree distributions and abundances across mountain landscapes requires integration of changes in hydroclimatic conditions across diverse topoclimatic settings; the sensitivity of recruitment, growth and mortality to climate; and feedbacks between trees and microclimate into modeling tools that represent time-explicit ecological and demographic processes.

Battle for Climate and Scarcity Rents: Beyond the Linear-Quadratic Case.

PubMed

Kagan, Mark; van der Ploeg, Frederick; Withagen, Cees

Industria imports oil, produces final goods and wishes to mitigate global warming. Oilrabia exports oil and buys final goods from the other country. Industria uses the carbon tax to impose an import tariff on oil and steal some of Oilrabia's scarcity rent. Conversely, Oilrabia has monopoly power and sets the oil price to steal some of Industria's climate rent. We analyze the relative speeds of oil extraction and carbon accumulation under these strategic interactions for various production function specifications and compare these with the efficient and competitive outcomes. We prove that for the class of HARA production functions, the oil price is initially higher and subsequently lower in the open-loop Nash equilibrium than in the efficient outcome. The oil extraction rate is thus initially too low and in later stages too high. The HARA class includes linear, loglinear and semi-loglinear demand functions as special cases. For non-HARA production functions, Oilrabia may in the open-loop Nash equilibrium initially price oil lower than the efficient level, thus resulting in more oil extraction and climate damages. We also contrast the open-loop Nash and efficient outcomes numerically with the feedback Nash outcomes. We find that the optimal carbon tax path in the feedback Nash equilibrium is flatter than in the open-loop Nash equilibrium. It turns out that for certain demand functions using the carbon tax as an import tariff may hurt consumers' welfare as the resulting user cost of oil is so high that the fall in welfare wipes out the gain from higher tariff revenues.

Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 andmore » 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.« less

The Role of Plate Tectonic-Climate Coupling and Exposed Land Area in the Development of Habitable Climates on Rocky Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, Bradford J.

2015-10-01

The long-term carbon cycle is vital for maintaining liquid water oceans on rocky planets due to the negative climate feedbacks involved in silicate weathering. Plate tectonics plays a crucial role in driving the long-term carbon cycle because it is responsible for CO2 degassing at ridges and arcs, the return of CO2 to the mantle through subduction, and supplying fresh, weatherable rock to the surface via uplift and orogeny. However, the presence of plate tectonics itself may depend on climate according to recent geodynamical studies showing that cool surface temperatures are important for maintaining vigorous plate tectonics. Using a simple carbon cycle model, I show that the negative climate feedbacks inherent in the long-term carbon cycle are uninhibited by climate's effect on plate tectonics. Furthermore, initial atmospheric CO2 conditions do not impact the final climate state reached when the carbon cycle comes to equilibrium, as long as liquid water is present and silicate weathering can occur. Thus an initially hot, CO2 rich atmosphere does not prevent the development of a temperate climate and plate tectonics on a planet. However, globally supply limited weathering does prevent the development of temperate climates on planets with small subaerial land areas and large total CO2 budgets because supply limited weathering lacks stabilizing climate feedbacks. Planets in the supply limited regime may become inhospitable for life and could experience significant water loss. Supply limited weathering is less likely on plate tectonic planets because plate tectonics promotes high erosion rates and thus a greater supply of bedrock to the surface.

Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures

DOE PAGES

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia; ...

2017-09-19

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 andmore » 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.« less

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J; Hill, Daniel J; Pound, Matthew J; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M; Francis, Jane E; Williams, Mark

2011-03-13

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.

2003-12-01

The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must have been primarily responsible for NHG at 2.75 Ma. And, regional air-sea feedbacks in the tropics, rather than ice sheet expansion, must have been primarily responsible for the marked increase in Walker circulation at 2.0 Ma. Finally, the detailed timing of events from different regions suggests that a tectonic `threshold' cannot explain the warm to cold climate transition. Studies of the last 5.0 Ma can also be used to understand how climate responds to changes in the Earth's radiative budget because seasonal and latitudinal variations in solar forcing are extremely well known, and many of the records that have been generated have the resolution and age control appropriate for the study of the climate response to these variations (Milankovitch cycles). In particular, how feedbacks operate when the mean climate state is warm versus cold can be studied. There is clear evidence that the amplitude of the climate response to solar forcing depends on the background mean state. In other words, the sensitivity of the climate to small perturbations in solar forcing has changed with time, and the balance of evidence indicates that tropical conditions, not high latitude conditions (such as ice sheet size) control this sensitivity. In sum, the Ocean Drilling Program has provided scientists with a window into the Pliocene warm period, and an opportunity to understand the workings of the ocean-climate system

A Note on the Relationship between Temperature and Water Vapor in Quasi-Equilibrium and Climate States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, C.-L.; Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.

2005-01-01

An ideal and simple formulation is successfully derived that well represents a quasi-linear relationship found between the domain-averaged water vapor, q (mm), and temperature, T (K), fields obtained from a series of quasi-equilibrium (long-term) simulations for the Tropics using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Earlier model work showed that the forced maintenance of two different wind profiles in the Tropics leads to two different equilibrium states. Investigating this finding required investigation of the slope of the moisture-temperature relations, which turns out to be linear in the Tropics. The extra-tropical climate equilibriums become more complex, but insight on modeling sensitivity can be obtained by linear stepwise regression of the integrated temperature and humidity. A globally curvilinear moisture-temperature distribution, similar to the famous Clausius-Clapeyron curve (i.e., saturated water vapor pressure versus temperature), is then found in this study. Such a genuine finding clarifies that the dynamics are crucial to the climate (shown in the earlier work) but the thermodynamics adjust. The range of validity of this result is further examined herein. The GCE-modeled tropical domain-averaged q and T fields form a linearly-regressed "q-T" slope that genuinely resides within an ideal range of slopes obtained from the aforementioned formulation. A quantity (denoted as dC2/dC1) representing the derivative between the static energy densities due to temperature (C2) and water vapor (C1) for various quasi-equilibrium states can also be obtained. A dC2/dC1 value near unity obtained for the GCE-modeled tropical simulations implies that the static energy densities due to moisture and temperature only differ by a pure constant for various equilibrium states. An overall q-T relation also including extra-tropical regions is, however, found to have a curvilinear relationship. Accordingly, warm/moist regions favor change in water vapor faster than temperature, while cold/dry regions favor an increase in temperature quicker than water vapor.

Relations of alpine plant communities across environmental gradients: Multilevel versus multiscale analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malanson, George P.; Zimmerman, Dale L.; Kinney, Mitch; Fagre, Daniel B.

2017-01-01

Alpine plant communities vary, and their environmental covariates could influence their response to climate change. A single multilevel model of how alpine plant community composition is determined by hierarchical relations is compared to a separate examination of those relations at different scales. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling of species cover for plots in four regions across the Rocky Mountains created dependent variables. Climate variables are derived for the four regions from interpolated data. Plot environmental variables are measured directly and the presence of thirty-seven site characteristics is recorded and used to create additional independent variables. Multilevel and best subsets regressions are used to determine the strength of the hypothesized relations. The ordinations indicate structure in the assembly of plant communities. The multilevel analyses, although revealing significant relations, provide little explanation; of the site variables, those related to site microclimate are most important. In multiscale analyses (whole and separate regions), different variables are better explanations within the different regions. This result indicates weak environmental niche control of community composition. The weak relations of the structure in the patterns of species association to the environment indicates that either alpine vegetation represents a case of the neutral theory of biogeography being a valid explanation or that it represents disequilibrium conditions. The implications of neutral theory and disequilibrium explanations are similar: Response to climate change will be difficult to quantify above equilibrium background turnover.

Polar Amplification of Global Warming in Models Without Ice-Albedo Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Langen, P. L.

2004-12-01

Non-ice-albedo feedback mechanisms leading to polar amplification, as reported by Alexeev (2003), are explored in three aquaplanet climate model systems of different complexity. We analyze this pattern using three different "ghost forcing" experiments (Hansen et al, 1997). In the first one we uniformly add 4W/m2 to the oceanic mixed layer in order to roughly simulate a 2xCO2 forcing at the surface. The second forcing, of the same magnitude, is applied only within the tropics and the third forcing is applied only polewards of 30 degrees (north and south). It turns out that our systems' equilibrium responses are linear with respect to these forcings. Surprisingly, the response to the tropical-only forcing is essentially non-local with quite significant warming at higher latitudes. The response to the high-latitude-only forcing is more local and has higher amplitude near the poles. Our explanation of the polar amplification obtained in the uniform forcing experiment is therefore two-fold. Firstly, the tropics are much more difficult to warm because of the higher sensitivity of the surface budget to SST changes at higher temperatures. Secondly, any extra heat deposited in the tropics is not easily radiated to outer space because of the high opaqueness of the tropical atmosphere. The energy, most of which is latent, needs to be redistributed by transports to the extra-tropics. Consequently, the tropical "ghost forcing" results in an essentially non-local response, while the extra-tropical one yields a more localized response, because the energy in the atmosphere cannot propagate effectively equator-wards from high latitudes. The paper deals with these mechanisms in three climate model systems with no ice-albedo feedbacks - an EBM and two different GCMs - one with cloud feedbacks and the other with cloud feedbacks excluded. References. Alexeev, V.A., (2003) Sensitivity to CO2 doubling of an atmospheric GCM coupled to an oceanic mixed layer: a linear analysis. Climate Dynamics, 20: p.775-787. Hansen, J., Sato M, and R. Ruedy, (1997) Radiative forcing and climate response, JGR, 102, No. D6, 6831-6864.

Analysis of the polar amplification pattern of global warming on an aquaplanet in "ghost forcing" experiments with no ice-albedo feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Langen, P. L.

2004-05-01

Non-ice-albedo feedback mechanisms leading to polar amplification, as reported by Alexeev (2003), are explored in three aquaplanet climate model systems of different complexity. We analyze this pattern using three different "ghost forcing" experiments (Hansen et al, 1997). In the first one we uniformly add 4W/m2 to the oceanic mixed layer in order to roughly simulate a 2xCO2 forcing at the surface. The second forcing, of the same magnitude, is applied only within the tropics and the third forcing is applied only polewards of 30 degrees (north and south). It turns out that our systems' equilibrium responses are linear with respect to these forcings. Surprisingly, the response to the tropical-only forcing is essentially non-local with quite significant warming at higher latitudes. The response to the high-latitude-only forcing is more local and has higher amplitude near the poles. Our explanation of the polar amplification obtained in the uniform forcing experiment is therefore two-fold. Firstly, the tropics are much more difficult to warm because of the higher sensitivity of the surface budget to SST changes at higher temperatures. Secondly, any extra heat deposited in the tropics is not easily radiated to outer space because of the high opaqueness of the tropical atmosphere. The energy, most of which is latent, needs to be redistributed by transports to the extra-tropics. Consequently, the tropical "ghost forcing" results in an essentially non-local response, while the extra-tropical one yields a more localized response, because the energy in the atmosphere cannot propagate effectively equator-wards from high latitudes. The paper deals with these mechanisms in three climate model systems with no ice-albedo feedback - an EBM and two different GCMs - one with cloud feedbacks and the other with cloud feedbacks excluded. References. Alexeev, V.A., (2003) Sensitivity to CO2 doubling of an atmospheric GCM coupled to an oceanic mixed layer: a linear analysis. Climate Dynamics, 20: p.775-787. Hansen, J., Sato M, and R. Ruedy, (1997) Radiative forcing and climate response, JGR, 102, No. D6, 6831-6864.

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skeie, R. B.; Berntsen, T.; Aldrin, M.; Holden, M.; Myhre, G.

2012-04-01

A key question in climate science is to quantify the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbation in the radiative forcing (RF). This sensitivity is often represented by the equilibrium climate sensitivity, but this quantity is poorly constrained with significant probabilities for high values. In this work the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is estimated based on observed near-surface temperature change from the instrumental record, changes in ocean heat content and detailed RF time series. RF time series from pre-industrial times to 2010 for all main anthropogenic and natural forcing mechanisms are estimated and the cloud lifetime effect and the semi-direct effect, which are not RF mechanisms in a strict sense, are included in the analysis. The RF time series are linked to the observations of ocean heat content and temperature change through an energy balance model and a stochastic model, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS from the data. The posterior mean of the ECS is 1.9˚C with 90% credible interval (C.I.) ranging from 1.2 to 2.9˚C, which is tighter than previously published estimates. Observational data up to and including year 2010 are used in this study. This is at least ten additional years compared to the majority of previously published studies that have used the instrumental record in attempts to constrain the ECS. We show that the additional 10 years of data, and especially 10 years of additional ocean heat content data, have significantly narrowed the probability density function of the ECS. If only data up to and including year 2000 are used in the analysis, the 90% C.I. is 1.4 to 10.6˚C with a pronounced heavy tail in line with previous estimates of ECS constrained by observations in the 20th century. Also the transient climate response (TCR) is estimated in this study. Using observational data up to and including year 2010 gives a 90% C.I. of 1.0 to 2.1˚C, while the 90% C.I. is significantly broader ranging from 1.1 to 3.4 ˚C if only data up to and including year 2000 is used.

Four Decades of Andean Timberline Migration and Implications for Biodiversity Loss with Climate Change

PubMed Central

Lutz, David A.; Powell, Rebecca L.; Silman, Miles R.

2013-01-01

Rapid 21st-century climate change may lead to large population decreases and extinction in tropical montane cloud forest species in the Andes. While prior research has focused on species migrations per se, ecotones may respond to different environmental factors than species. Even if species can migrate in response to climate change, if ecotones do not they can function as hard barriers to species migrations, making ecotone migrations central to understanding species persistence under scenarios of climate change. We examined a 42-year span of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery to calculate migration rates of timberline–the grassland-forest ecotone–inside and outside of protected areas in the high Peruvian Andes. We found that timberline in protected areas was more likely to migrate upward in elevation than in areas with frequent cattle grazing and fire. However, rates in both protected (0.24 m yr−1) and unprotected (0.05 m yr−1) areas are only 0.5–2.3% of the rates needed to stay in equilibrium with projected climate by 2100. These ecotone migration rates are 12.5 to 110 times slower than the observed species migration rates within the same forest, suggesting a barrier to migration for mid- and high-elevation species. We anticipate that the ecotone will be a hard barrier to migration under future climate change, leading to drastic population and biodiversity losses in the region unless intensive management steps are taken. PMID:24040260

Four decades of Andean timberline migration and implications for biodiversity loss with climate change.

PubMed

Lutz, David A; Powell, Rebecca L; Silman, Miles R

2013-01-01

Rapid 21st-century climate change may lead to large population decreases and extinction in tropical montane cloud forest species in the Andes. While prior research has focused on species migrations per se, ecotones may respond to different environmental factors than species. Even if species can migrate in response to climate change, if ecotones do not they can function as hard barriers to species migrations, making ecotone migrations central to understanding species persistence under scenarios of climate change. We examined a 42-year span of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery to calculate migration rates of timberline--the grassland-forest ecotone-inside and outside of protected areas in the high Peruvian Andes. We found that timberline in protected areas was more likely to migrate upward in elevation than in areas with frequent cattle grazing and fire. However, rates in both protected (0.24 m yr(-1)) and unprotected (0.05 m yr(-1)) areas are only 0.5-2.3% of the rates needed to stay in equilibrium with projected climate by 2100. These ecotone migration rates are 12.5 to 110 times slower than the observed species migration rates within the same forest, suggesting a barrier to migration for mid- and high-elevation species. We anticipate that the ecotone will be a hard barrier to migration under future climate change, leading to drastic population and biodiversity losses in the region unless intensive management steps are taken.

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical, future energy demand, and mitigation technology uncertainties. This information provides central information for policy making, since it helps to understand the relationship between mitigation costs and their potential to reduce the risk of exceeding 2°C, or other temperature limits like 3°C or 1.5°C, under a wide range of scenarios.

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms

PubMed Central

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-01-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities. PMID:25535553

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.

PubMed

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-09-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating: The soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-Model Version

Treesearch

William Massman

2015-01-01

Increased use of prescribed fire by land managers and the increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change require an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing and testing the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMVmodel, a 1-D (one-dimensional) non-equilibrium (liquid- vapor phase change)...

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Present and former equilibrium-line altitudes near Mount Everest, Nepal and Tibet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, V.S.

1983-01-01

New information on equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) of present and former glaciers in the Mount Everest area of eastern Nepal and southern Tibet has been derived from field mapping and interpretation of topographic maps and Landsat imagery. Present ELAs rise from south to north across the Himalayan Range from 5200 to 5800 m, as indicated by the altitudes of lowest cirque glaciers and highest lateral and medial moraines on valley glaciers. In contrast, ELAs during maximum late Pleistocene glaciation rose in altitude from 4300 to 5500 m across the range, as indicated by altitudes of lowest cirque floors and maximum extent of glacial deposits. Highest ELAs occurred on previously unrecognized ice caps that formerly covered extensive highland areas in Tibet north of the range crest. During four distinct Holocene glacial advances of subequal magnitude, ELAs were depressed about 30% as much as the late Pleistocene maximum depression. Depression of ELAs during the late Pleistocene glaciation was about twice as great south of the range crest (950 m) as north of it (400 m). Although the present northward decrease in precipitation causes ELAs to rise northward for 85 km at 7.1 m km-1, the gradient during maximum late Pleistocene glaciation was 11 m km-1. Such a great contrast in glacier response to climate change over a short distance is remarkable and probably reflects increased aridity on the Tibetan Plateau and increased climatic contrast across the Himalayan Range during glacial ages.

Dynamics of a Delayed HIV-1 Infection Model with Saturation Incidence Rate and CTL Immune Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Ting; Liu, Haihong; Xu, Chenglin; Yan, Fang

2016-12-01

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a five-dimensional virus model incorporating saturation incidence rate, CTL immune response and three time delays which represent the latent period, virus production period and immune response delay, respectively. We begin this model by proving the positivity and boundedness of the solutions. Our model admits three possible equilibrium solutions, namely the infection-free equilibrium E0, the infectious equilibrium without immune response E1 and the infectious equilibrium with immune response E2. Moreover, by analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of the feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the equilibrium point E2 are established, respectively. Further, by using fluctuation lemma and suitable Lyapunov functionals, it is shown that E0 is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive numbers for viral infection R0 is less than unity. When the basic reproductive numbers for immune response R1 is less than unity and R0 is greater than unity, the equilibrium point E1 is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out for illustrating the theoretical results.

Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Nogués-Bravo, David; Borregaard, Michael K; Donoghue, John C; Jørgensen, Peter M; Kraft, Nathan J B; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Violle, Cyrille; Rahbek, Carsten; Enquist, Brian J

2015-04-01

We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial-interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near-future climate change.

Using the Mount Pinatubo Volcanic Eruption to Determine Climate Sensitivity: Comments on "Climate Forcing by the Volcanic Eruption of Mount Pinatubo" by David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wigley, T L; Ammann, C M; Santer, B D

2005-04-22

[1] Douglass and Knox [2005], hereafter referred to as DK, present an analysis of the observed cooling following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption and claim that these data imply a very low value for the climate sensitivity (equivalent to 0.6 C equilibrium warming for a CO{sub 2} doubling). We show here that their analysis is flawed and their results are incorrect.

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Maycock, A.; Valdes, P. J.

2017-12-01

The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 ka to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40-50° N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5 ka - 8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing did not play a significant role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Valdes, Paul J.; Stevenson, Samantha

2018-02-01

The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40° and 50°N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5-8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering during the Holocene are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing is unlikely to have played a major role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

Climate change in Brazil: perspective on the biogeochemistry of inland waters.

PubMed

Roland, F; Huszar, V L M; Farjalla, Vf; Enrich-Prast, A; Amado, A M; Ometto, J P H B

2012-08-01

Although only a small amount of the Earth's water exists as continental surface water bodies, this compartment plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycles connecting the land to the atmosphere. The territory of Brazil encompasses a dense river net and enormous number of shallow lakes. Human actions have been heavily influenced by the inland waters across the country. Both biodiversity and processes in the water are strongly driven by seasonal fluvial forces and/or precipitation. These macro drivers are sensitive to climate changes. In addition to their crucial importance to humans, inland waters are extremely rich ecosystems, harboring high biodiversity, promoting landscape equilibrium (connecting ecosystems, maintaining animal and plant flows in the landscape, and transferring mass, nutrients and inocula), and controlling regional climates through hydrological-cycle feedback. In this contribution, we describe the aquatic ecological responses to climate change in a conceptual perspective, and we then analyze the possible climate-change scenarios in different regions in Brazil. We also indentify some potential biogeochemical signals in running waters, natural lakes and man-made impoundments. The possible future changes in climate and aquatic ecosystems in Brazil are highly uncertain. Inland waters are pressured by local environmental changes because of land uses, landscape fragmentation, damming and diversion of water bodies, urbanization, wastewater load, and level of pollutants can alter biogeochemical patterns in inland waters over a shorter term than can climate changes. In fact, many intense environmental changes may enhance the effects of changes in climate. Therefore, the maintenance of key elements within the landscape and avoiding extreme perturbation in the systems are urgent to maintain the sustainability of Brazilian inland waters, in order to prevent more catastrophic future events.

Assessing the ability of plants to respond to climatic change through distribution shifts

Treesearch

Mark W. Schwartz

1996-01-01

Predictions of future global warming suggest northward shifts of up to 800 km in the equilibrium distributions of plant species. Historical data estimating the maximum rate of tree distribution shifts (migration) suggest that most species will not keep pace with future rates of human-induced climatic change. Previous plant migrations have occurred at rates typically...

Climatic implications of reconstructed early - Mid Pliocene equilibrium-line altitudes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krusic, A.G.; Prentice, M.L.; Licciardi, J.M.

2009-01-01

Early-mid Pliocene moraines in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are more extensive than the present alpine glaciers in this region, indicating substantial climatic differences between the early-mid Pliocene and the present. To quantify this difference in the glacier-climate regime, we estimated the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) change since the early-mid Pliocene by calculating the modern ELA and reconstructing the ELAs of four alpine glaciers in Wright and Taylor Valleys at their early-mid Pliocene maxima. The area-altitude balance ratio method was used on modern and reconstructed early-mid Pliocene hypsometry. In Wright and Victoria Valleys, mass-balance data identify present-day ELAs of 800-1600 m a.s.l. and an average balance ratio of 1.1. The estimated ELAs of the much larger early-mid Pliocene glaciers in Wright and Taylor Valleys range from 600 to 950 ?? 170 m a.s.l., and thus are 250-600 ??170 m lower than modern ELAs in these valleys. The depressed ELAs during the early-mid-Pliocene most likely indicate a wetter and therefore warmer climate in the Dry Valleys during this period than previous studies have recognized.

Tropical Convection and Climate Processes in a Cumulus Ensemble Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, Chung-Hsiung

1999-01-01

Local convective-radiative equilibrium states of the tropical atmosphere are determined by the following external forcing: 1) Insolation, 2) Surface heat and moisture exchanges (primarily radiation and evaporation), 3) Heating and moistening induced by large-scale circulation. Understanding the equilibrium states of the tropical atmosphere in different external forcing conditions is of vital importance for studying cumulus parameterization, climate feedbacks, and climate changes. We extend our previous study using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model which resolves convective-radiative processes more explicitly than global climate models do. Several experiments are carried out under fixed insolation and sea surface temperature. The prescribed SST consists of a uniform warm pool (29C) surrounded by uniform cold SST (26C). The model produces "Walker"-type circulation with the ascending branch of the model atmosphere more humid than the descending part, but the vertically integrated temperature does not show a horizontal gradient. The results are compared with satellite measured moisture by SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) and temperature by MSU in the ascending and descending tropical atmosphere. The vertically integrated temperature and humidity in the two model regimes are comparable to the observed values in the tropics.

General equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option under the Clean Development Mechanism.

PubMed

Timilsina, Govinda R; Shrestha, Ram M

2006-09-01

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is considered a key instrument to encourage developing countries' participation in the mitigation of global climate change. Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the energy supply and demand side activities are the main options to be implemented under the CDM. This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option-the substitution of thermal power with hydropower--in Thailand under the CDM. A static multi-sector general equilibrium model has been developed for the purpose of this study. The key finding of the study is that the substitution of electricity generation from thermal power plants with that from hydropower plants would increase economic welfare in Thailand. The supply side option would, however, adversely affect the gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance. The percentage changes in economic welfare, GDP and trade balance increase with the level of substitution and the price of certified emission reduction (CER) units.

Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.

2006-01-01

A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2), respectively, with year 2100 climate and emissions.

Multi-proxy Paleoclimate and CO2 Reconstruction from the Latest Middle Eocene Sedimentary Fill of a Subarctic Kimberlitic Maar Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, A. V.; Wolfe, A. P.; Royer, D. L.; Greenwood, D. R.; Tierney, J. E.; Doria, G.; Gagen, M. H.; Siver, P.; Westgate, J.

2016-12-01

Eocene paleoclimate reconstructions are rarely accompanied by parallel estimates of CO2, complicating assessment of the equilibrium climate responses to CO2. We reconstruct temperature, precipitation, and CO2 from latest middle Eocene ( 38 Myrs ago) peats in subarctic Canada, preserved in sediments that record infilling of a kimberlite pipe maar crater. Mutual climatic range analyses of pollen, together with oxygen isotope analyses of a-cellulose from unpermineralized wood and inferenecs from branched glycerol diakyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), reveal a high-latitude humid-temperate forest ecosystem with mean annual temperatures (MATs) >17 °C warmer than present, mean coldest month temperatures above 0 °C, and mean annual precipitation 4x present. Metasequoia stomatal indices and gas-exchange modeling produce median CO2 concentrations of 634 and 432 ppm, respectively, with a consensus median estimate of 494 ppm. Reconstructed MATs are >6 °C warmer than those produced by Eocene climate models forced at 560 ppm CO2, underscoring the capacity for exceptional polar amplification of warming and hydrological intensification under relatively modest CO2 concentrations, once both fast and slow feedbacks become expressed.

Pollen from the Deep-Sea: A Breakthrough in the Mystery of the Ice Ages

PubMed Central

Sánchez Goñi, María F.; Desprat, Stéphanie; Fletcher, William J.; Morales-Molino, César; Naughton, Filipa; Oliveira, Dulce; Urrego, Dunia H.; Zorzi, Coralie

2018-01-01

Pollen from deep-sea sedimentary sequences provides an integrated regional reconstruction of vegetation and climate (temperature, precipitation, and seasonality) on the adjacent continent. More importantly, the direct correlation of pollen, marine and ice indicators allows comparison of the atmospheric climatic changes that have affected the continent with the response of the Earth’s other reservoirs, i.e., the oceans and cryosphere, without any chronological uncertainty. The study of long continuous pollen records from the European margin has revealed a changing and complex interplay between European climate, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), ice growth and decay, and high- and low-latitude forcing at orbital and millennial timescales. These records have shown that the amplitude of the last five terrestrial interglacials was similar above 40°N, while below 40°N their magnitude differed due to precession-modulated changes in seasonality and, particularly, winter precipitation. These records also showed that vegetation response was in dynamic equilibrium with rapid climate changes such as the Dangaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events, similar in magnitude and velocity to the ongoing global warming. However, the magnitude of the millennial-scale warming events of the last glacial period was regionally-specific. Precession seems to have imprinted regions below 40°N while obliquity, which controls average annual temperature, probably mediated the impact of D-O warming events above 40°N. A decoupling between high- and low-latitude climate was also observed within last glacial warm (Greenland interstadials) and cold phases (Greenland stadials). The synchronous response of western European vegetation/climate and eastern North Atlantic SSTs to D-O cycles was not a pervasive feature throughout the Quaternary. During periods of ice growth such as MIS 5a/4, MIS 11c/b and MIS 19c/b, repeated millennial-scale cold-air/warm-sea decoupling events occurred on the European margin superimposed to a long-term air-sea decoupling trend. Strong air-sea thermal contrasts promoted the production of water vapor that was then transported northward by the westerlies and fed ice sheets. This interaction between long-term and shorter time-scale climatic variability may have amplified insolation decreases and thus explain the Ice Ages. This hypothesis should be tested by the integration of stochastic processes in Earth models of intermediate complexity. PMID:29434616

Pollen from the Deep-Sea: A Breakthrough in the Mystery of the Ice Ages.

PubMed

Sánchez Goñi, María F; Desprat, Stéphanie; Fletcher, William J; Morales-Molino, César; Naughton, Filipa; Oliveira, Dulce; Urrego, Dunia H; Zorzi, Coralie

2018-01-01

Pollen from deep-sea sedimentary sequences provides an integrated regional reconstruction of vegetation and climate (temperature, precipitation, and seasonality) on the adjacent continent. More importantly, the direct correlation of pollen, marine and ice indicators allows comparison of the atmospheric climatic changes that have affected the continent with the response of the Earth's other reservoirs, i.e., the oceans and cryosphere, without any chronological uncertainty. The study of long continuous pollen records from the European margin has revealed a changing and complex interplay between European climate, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), ice growth and decay, and high- and low-latitude forcing at orbital and millennial timescales. These records have shown that the amplitude of the last five terrestrial interglacials was similar above 40°N, while below 40°N their magnitude differed due to precession-modulated changes in seasonality and, particularly, winter precipitation. These records also showed that vegetation response was in dynamic equilibrium with rapid climate changes such as the Dangaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events, similar in magnitude and velocity to the ongoing global warming. However, the magnitude of the millennial-scale warming events of the last glacial period was regionally-specific. Precession seems to have imprinted regions below 40°N while obliquity, which controls average annual temperature, probably mediated the impact of D-O warming events above 40°N. A decoupling between high- and low-latitude climate was also observed within last glacial warm (Greenland interstadials) and cold phases (Greenland stadials). The synchronous response of western European vegetation/climate and eastern North Atlantic SSTs to D-O cycles was not a pervasive feature throughout the Quaternary. During periods of ice growth such as MIS 5a/4, MIS 11c/b and MIS 19c/b, repeated millennial-scale cold-air/warm-sea decoupling events occurred on the European margin superimposed to a long-term air-sea decoupling trend. Strong air-sea thermal contrasts promoted the production of water vapor that was then transported northward by the westerlies and fed ice sheets. This interaction between long-term and shorter time-scale climatic variability may have amplified insolation decreases and thus explain the Ice Ages. This hypothesis should be tested by the integration of stochastic processes in Earth models of intermediate complexity.

From rationality to cooperativeness: The totally mixed Nash equilibrium in Markov strategies in the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma.

PubMed

Menshikov, Ivan S; Shklover, Alexsandr V; Babkina, Tatiana S; Myagkov, Mikhail G

2017-01-01

In this research, the social behavior of the participants in a Prisoner's Dilemma laboratory game is explained on the basis of the quantal response equilibrium concept and the representation of the game in Markov strategies. In previous research, we demonstrated that social interaction during the experiment has a positive influence on cooperation, trust, and gratefulness. This research shows that the quantal response equilibrium concept agrees only with the results of experiments on cooperation in Prisoner's Dilemma prior to social interaction. However, quantal response equilibrium does not explain of participants' behavior after social interaction. As an alternative theoretical approach, an examination was conducted of iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game in Markov strategies. We built a totally mixed Nash equilibrium in this game; the equilibrium agrees with the results of the experiments both before and after social interaction.

From rationality to cooperativeness: The totally mixed Nash equilibrium in Markov strategies in the iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma

PubMed Central

Myagkov, Mikhail G.

2017-01-01

In this research, the social behavior of the participants in a Prisoner's Dilemma laboratory game is explained on the basis of the quantal response equilibrium concept and the representation of the game in Markov strategies. In previous research, we demonstrated that social interaction during the experiment has a positive influence on cooperation, trust, and gratefulness. This research shows that the quantal response equilibrium concept agrees only with the results of experiments on cooperation in Prisoner’s Dilemma prior to social interaction. However, quantal response equilibrium does not explain of participants’ behavior after social interaction. As an alternative theoretical approach, an examination was conducted of iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game in Markov strategies. We built a totally mixed Nash equilibrium in this game; the equilibrium agrees with the results of the experiments both before and after social interaction. PMID:29190280

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

1988-01-01

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

Climatic consequences of observed ozone loss in the 1980s: Relevance to the greenhouse problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, G. I.; Ko, M. K. W.; Zhou, S.; Sze, N. D.

1994-01-01

Recently published findings using satellite and ground-based observations indicate a large winter and summertime decrease in the column abundance of ozone at high and middle latitudes during the last decade. Using a simple ozone depletion profile reflecting the observed decrease in ozone column abundance, Ramaswamy et al. (1992) showed that the negative radiative forcing that results from the ozone decrease between 1979 and 1990 approximately balanced the greenhouse climate forcing due to the chlorofluorocarbons emitted during the same period. Here, we extend the forcing analyses by calculating the equilibrium surface temperature response explicitly, using an updated version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research two-dimensional radiative-dynamical seasonal model. The calculated steady state responses suggest that the surface cooling due to the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere offsets about 30% of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases emitted during the same decade. The temperature offset is roughly a factor of 2 larger than the corresponding offset obtained from forcing intercomparisons. This result appears to be related to the climate feedback mechanisms operating in the model troposphere, most notably that associated with atmospheric meridional heat transport. Thus a comprehensive assessment of ozone change effects on the predicted greenhouse warming cannot be accomplished based on forcing evaluations alone. Our results also show that calculations adopting a seasonally and latitudinally dependent ozone depletion profile produce a negative forcing about 50% smaller than that calculated for the depletion profile used by Ramaswamy et al. (1992).

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.

PubMed

Allen, Myles R; Frame, David J; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai

2009-04-30

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.

Changes in Migration Pattern of Transhumance due to Climate Change: An Empirical Analysis of Gaddi Community of Himachal Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Himanshu; Wasini Pandey, Bindhy

2017-04-01

Transhumance is a complex and traditional livelihood system seeking to maintain equilibrium between pastures, livestock and local people in variable and inhospitable environments. In Western Himalayas in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, pastoral groups of Gaddis inhabit almost inaccessible areas, where scarce resources and extreme climatic conditions limit options for alternative land use and livelihood systems. In such a harsh and unforgiving environment, mobility in the form of transhumance has been the traditional ecological response to climatic extremes. However, recently, such additional factors as global as well as regional climate change have brought about changes in the tree line, snow line and pastoral grounds along the historical route of seasonal migration of the Gaddis. The growing unpredictability of the once static route of migration has raised the possibility of Gaddis shifting to alternative land use and land management techniques. In the present research, we explore how transhumant pastoralism has been sustained and stimulated in the context of socioeconomic and climate change in the mountainous region of Himachal Pradesh and the future challenges that it faces. Based on case study research conducted in Chamba district in Himachal Pradesh; we have analysed the status, opportunities, and constraints of transhumant pastoralism in the changing context and modeled the possible alternative land use decisions. Finally we conclude that unless there are affirmative and progressive policy and institutional framework to support transhumant system, the indigenous practice will soon disappear from this part of the world. Keywords: Climate change, Gaddis, Himachal Pradesh, Transhumance, Alternative Land Use

Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Oka, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs), which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO) including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model); a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario. By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model) of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0 K) version of MIROC3.2. By tuning of the physical and biogeochemical parameters it was possible to reasonably reproduce the bulk physical and biogeochemical properties of previously published CO2 stabilisation scenarios for that model. As an example of an application of the LCM, the behavior of the high sensitivity version of MIROC3.2 (with a 6.3 K equilibrium climate sensitivity) is also demonstrated. Given the highly adjustable nature of the model, we believe that the LCM should be a very useful tool for studying uncertainty in global climate change, and we have named the model, JUMP-LCM, after the name of our research group (Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project).

The changing impact of snow conditions and refreezing on the mass balance of an idealized Svalbard glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Pelt, Ward; Pohjola, Veijo; Reijmer, Carleen

2016-11-01

Glacier surface melt and runoff depend strongly on seasonal and perennial snow (firn) conditions. Not only does the presence of snow and firn directly affect melt rates by reflecting solar radiation, it may also act as a buffer against mass loss by storing melt water in refrozen or liquid form. In Svalbard, ongoing and projected amplified climate change with respect to the global mean change has severe implications for the state of snow and firn and its impact on glacier mass loss. Model experiments with a coupled surface energy balance - firn model were done to investigate the surface mass balance and the changing role of snow and firn conditions for an idealized Svalbard glacier. A climate forcing for the past, present and future (1984-2104) is constructed, based on observational data from Svalbard Airport and a seasonally dependent projection scenario. Results illustrate ongoing and future firn degradation in response to an elevational retreat of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of 31 m decade-1. The temperate firn zone is found to retreat and expand, while cold ice in the ablation zone warms considerably. In response to pronounced winter warming and an associated increase in winter rainfall, the current prevalence of refreezing during the melt season gradually shifts to the winter season in a future climate. Sensitivity tests reveal that in a present and future climate the density and thermodynamic structure of Svalbard glaciers are heavily influenced by refreezing. Refreezing acts as a net buffer against mass loss. However, the net mass balance change after refreezing is substantially smaller than the amount of refreezing itself, which can be ascribed to melt-enhancing effects after refreezing, which partly offset the primary mass-retaining effect of refreezing.

The role of sediments stored in valleys in modulating the Quaternary weathering flux variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carretier, Sebastien; Goddéris, Yves; Vigier, Nathalie; Maffre, Pierre

2017-04-01

Silicate weathering is known to be central to the regulation of atmospheric CO2. Yet it is unclear how weathering responds to climatic variations. Data sets based on different proxies in sediment cores suggest either negligible Quaternary silicate weathering variations, or more weathering during wet and hot periods, or even the reverse. For example, a recent study based on d7Li in clay of Himalayan river terraces suggests, counter-intuitively, a less intense weathering during hot and wet periods compared to dry periods for the last 40 ka, with no clear physical explanation. We analyse catchment scale weathering signals using the numerical model Cidre, coupling landscape evolution with chemical weathering. Chemical weathering occurs within a regolith, either produced in situ at a rate depending on regolith thickness, temperature and precipitation, or corresponding to a deposit. The chemical flux is calculated from the dissolution of granitoid clasts, first exhumed on the hillslopes and then transported and potentially stocked in the valleys. This approach accounts for part of the stochastic nature of grain weathering within a catchment. We prescribe an uplift to an initial horizontal surface to reach a dynamic equilibrium under a constant climate. Then, we vary the precipitation rate and the temperature, alternating cold and dry periods with hot and wet periods (10 to 400 ka tested). When these variations are applied to an equilibrium mountain covered by a regolith ("transport-limited"), the weathering outlfux and the erosion flux are larger during wet and hot periods. On the contrary, for less weatherable conditions such that the mountain is not covered by regolith ("kinetically-limited"), the weathering is the highest at the beginning of the dry, cold and low erosive periods. This apparent paradox is explained by the temporary accumulation of sediment in the valleys in response to the drought. The hillslopes being striped, these valley deposits constitute the only weathering reservoir, whose large volume compensates for the unfavourable climatic conditions. Such a behaviour explains out-of-phase weathering signals, and suggests that the dominant weathering reservoir goes back and forth between the hillslopes and the valleys during climatic oscillations.

SLR-induced changes on storm flooding in coastal areas: the role of accommodation space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, Jose A.; Dockx, Stijn; Monbaliu, Jaak

2015-04-01

Most of existing predictions of climate-induce changes in coastal storminess in the Mediterranean indicate the absence of any significant increasing trend in neither wave height nor surge. However, this does not mean that magnitude and/or frequency of storm-induced coastal hazards will not be affected by climate change. Thus, sea level rise will induce a series of long-term changes in coastal areas that although not directly affecting storminess will interact with storm-induced processes and, thus, changing coastal storm risks. A typical approach to account SLR-induced effects on coastal inundation by storms is to modify present water level extreme climate by adding expected MWL increase. This implies to consider the coast as a static and passive system to SLR maintaining its configuration from actual to projected (rised) sea level and, as a result of this, the frequency of flood events should increase and, the magnitude of flooding associated to a probability of occurrence will also increase. This will only be realistic for really passive or rigid coasts. However, sandy coastlines will response to SLR and, thus, this approach should undervalue coastal resilience. Within this context, the main aim of this work is to propose a method to assess the effects of SLR on the magnitude of storm-induced coastal flooding on sandy coastlines taking into account their capacity of response. It combines the use of a inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for delineating the flood-prone area for given storm conditions and, a coastal module to account for SLR-induced changes in the coastal fringe. The method assumes an equilibrium-type coastal response to SLR which, ideally, implies that the beach profile will be reconstructed under the new higher water level, in such a way that the relative beach configuration will be the same. However, this should only be possible provided there is enough accommodation space in the hinterland. In most of developed coasts, the existence of human built infrastructures conditions and limits the availability of accommodation space and, thus, controls the magnitude of the coastal response and final configuration under SLR. This final configuration will determine potential changes in water level and overtopping regimes under the SLR scenario. Thus, potential SLR effects on storm-inundation will range between no changes for a "complete-equilibrium" response to worst case scenario which corresponds to a non-response (static) situation. The method has been tested in a low-lying coast in Catalonia (Spain, NW Mediterranean) where accommodation space varies along the coastline for different SLR scenarios. Obtained results show that, in spite of any variation in storminess, storm-induced flood risk significantly increase in time due to CC. Moreover, the observed variations in accommodation space along the coast significantly affect the observed increase in flood extension and, in consequence, it becomes one an essential aspect to be controlled for efficient management of future inundation risks.

Autogenic and Allogenic: Emergent Coastline Patterns Interact With Forcing Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Mendez, F. J.; Moore, L. J.; Wood, J.; Farley, G.

2017-12-01

A range of coastline shapes can emerge from large-scale morphodynamic interactions. Coastline shape determines local wave influences. Local wave influences (fluxes of alongshore momentum), determine sediment fluxes, and gradients in these sediment fluxes, in turn, alter coastline shape. Modeling studies show that such feedbacks lead to an instability, and to subsequent finite-amplitude interactions, producing self-organized patterns and emergent structures including sandwaves, capes, and spits (e.g. Ashton and Murray, 2006; Ashton et al., 2015); spiral bays on rocky coastlines (e.g. Barkwith et al., 2014); and convex, spit-bounded coastlines (Ells et al., in prep.). Coastline shapes depend sensitively on wave climate, defined as the angular distribution of wave influences on alongshore sediment transport. Therefore, shifts in wave climate arising from shifts in storms (decadal scale fluctuations or longer-term trends) will tend to change coastline shape. Previous efforts have detected changing coastline shape, likely related to changing influence from hurricane-generated waves, as expressed in changes in the location and intensity of coastal erosion zones along the cuspate capes in North Carolina, USA (Moore et al., 2013). These efforts involved the assumption that coastline response to changing forcing occurs in a quasi-equilibrium manner. However, in some cases coastline responses can exhibit long-term memory and path dependence (Thomas et al., 2016). Recently, we have hindcast the wave climate affecting the North Carolina coast since 1870, using a series of statistical analyses to downscale from basin-scale surface pressure fields to regional deep-water wave climate, and then a numerical transformation to local offshore wave climate. We used this wave climate as input for the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM). The results show that the emergent coastline features respond to decadal-scale shifts in wave climate, but with time lags that complicate the relationship between forcing and coastline shape. Comparisons between model predictions and observed shoreline-change patterns support the suggestion that the relationship between emergent coastline behaviours (autogenic processes) and external influences (autogenic forcing) involves such memory effects (Antolinez et al., in revision).

CIM-EARTH: Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, I.; Elliott, J.; Munson, T.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E. J.; Sanstad, A. H.

2010-12-01

We report here on the development of an open source software framework termed CIM-EARTH that is intended to aid decision-making in climate and energy policy. Numerical modeling in support of evaluating policies to address climate change is difficult not only because of inherent uncertainties but because of the differences in scale and modeling approach required for various subcomponents of the system. Economic and climate models are structured quite differently, and while climate forcing can be assumed to be roughly global, climate impacts and the human response to them occur on small spatial scales. Mitigation policies likewise can be applied on scales ranging from the better part of a continent (e.g. a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S.) to a few hundred km (e.g. statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes). Both spatial and time resolution requirements can be challenging for global economic models. CIM-EARTH is a modular framework based around dynamic general equilibrium models. It is designed as a community tool that will enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of both mitigation policies and unchecked climate change. Modularity enables both integration of highly resolved component sub-models for energy and other key systems and also user-directed choice of tradeoffs between e.g. spatial, sectoral, and time resolution. This poster describes the framework architecture, the current realized version, and plans for future releases. As with other open-source models familiar to the climate community (e.g. CCSM), deliverables will be made publicly available on a regular schedule, and community input is solicited for development of new features and modules.

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David L; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-01-03

For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 °C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 °C, or other limits such as 3 °C or 1.5 °C, across a wide range of scenarios.

Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

2012-07-13

The equilibrium climate response to the total effects (direct, indirect and semi-direct effects) of aerosols arising from anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions on the South Asian summer monsoon system is studied using a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean model. Our results suggest that anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols generally induce a reduction in mean summer monsoon precipitation over most parts of the Indian subcontinent, strongest along the western coastline of the Indian peninsula and eastern Nepal region, but modest increases also occur over the north western part of the subcontinent. While most of the noted reduction in precipitation is triggered by increasedmore » emissions of aerosols from anthropogenic activities, modest increases in the north west are mostly associated with decreases in local emissions of aerosols from forest fire and grass fire sources. Anthropogenic aerosols from outside Asia also contribute to the overall reduction in precipitation but the dominant contribution comes from aerosol sources within Asia. Local emissions play a more important role in the total rainfall response to anthropogenic aerosol sources during the early monsoon period, whereas both local as well as remote emissions of aerosols play almost equally important roles during the later part of the monsoon period. While precipitation responses are primarily driven by local aerosol forcing, regional surface temperature changes over the region are strongly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols from sources further away (non-local changes). Changes in local anthropogenic organic and black carbon emissions by as much as a factor of two (preserving their ratio) produce the same basic signatures in the model's summer monsoon temperature and precipitation responses.« less

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how theymore » model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.« less

A Heuristic Approach to Examining Volatile Equilibrium at Titan's Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samuelson, Robert E.

1999-01-01

R. D. Lorenz, J. I. Lunine, and C. P. McKay have shown in a manuscript accepted for publication that, for a given ethane abundance and surface temperature, the nitrogen and methane abundances in Titan's atmosphere can be calculated, yielding a surface pressure that can be compared with the observed value. This is potentially a very valuable tool for examining the evolution of Titan's climatology. Its validity does depend on two important assumptions, however: 1) that the atmosphere of Titan is in global radiative equilibrium, and 2) that volatiles present are in vapor equilibrium with the surface. The former assumption has been shown to be likely, but the latter has not. Water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere, in fact, is generally not very close to equilibrium in a global sense. In the present work a heuristic approach is used to examine the likelihood that methane vapor is in equilibrium with Titan's surface. Plausible climate scenerios are examined that are consistent with methane vapor abundances derived from Voyager IRIS data. Simple precipitation and surface diffusion models are incorporated into the analysis. It is tentatively inferred that methane may be in surface equilibrium near the poles, but that equilibrium at low latitudes is more difficult to establish.

Paleogeographic Controls on Climate Sensitivity and Feedback Strength and their Impacts on Snowball Earth Initiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorella, R.; Poulsen, C. J.

2013-12-01

The enigmatic Neoproterozoic geological record suggests the potential for a fully glaciated 'Snowball Earth.' Low-latitude continental position has been invoked as a potential Snowball Earth trigger by increasing surface albedo and decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations through increased silicate weathering. Herein, climate response to reduction of total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 concentration is tested using four different land configurations (aquaplanet, modern, Neoproterozoic, and low-latitude supercontinent) with uniform topography in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 3.1) GCM with a mixed-layer ocean. Despite a lower global mean surface albedo at 100% TSI for the aquaplanet scenario, the threshold for global glaciation decreases from 92% TSI in the aquaplanet configuration to 85% TSI with a low-latitude supercontinent. Climate sensitivity, as measured by the equilibrium temperature response to TSI and CO2 changes, varied across all four geographies at each forcing pair. The range of sensitivities observed suggests that climate feedback strengths are strongly dependent on both paleogeography and forcing. To identify the mechanisms responsible for the observed breadth in climate sensitivities, we calculate radiative kernels for four different TSI and CO2 forcing pairs in order to assess the strengths of the water vapor, albedo, lapse rate, Planck, and cloud feedbacks and how they vary with both forcing and paleogeography. Radiative kernels are calculated using an uncoupled version of the CAM3.1 radiation code and then perturbing climate fields of interest (surface albedo, specific humidity, and temperature) by a standard amount. No cloud kernels are calculated; instead, the cloud feedback is calculated by correcting the change in cloud radiative forcing to account for cloud masking. We find that paleogeography strongly controls how the water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks respond to different forcings. In particular, low latitude continents diminish the change in water vapor feedback strengths resulting from changes in forcing. Continental heating intensifies the Walker circulation, enhancing surface evaporation and moistening the marine troposphere. Additionally, dehumidification of the troposphere over large tropical continents in CAM3.1 increases direct heating by decreasing cloud cover. As a result, in the absence of potential silicate weathering feedbacks, large tropical landmasses raise the barrier to initiation of Snowball events. More generally, these simulations demonstrate the substantial influence of geography on climate sensitivity and climate feedback mechanisms, and challenge the notion that reduced continental area early in Earth history might provide a solution to the Faint Young Sun Paradox.

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meijl, Hans; Havlik, Petr; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Stehfest, Elke; Witzke, Peter; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Dijk, Michiel; Doelman, Jonathan; Fellmann, Thomas; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F. L.; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van Zeist, Willem-Jan

2018-06-01

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

AEDT: A new concept for ecological dynamics in the ever-changing world.

PubMed

Chesson, Peter

2017-05-01

The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling parameter for the aerosols. The estimation method is computationally fast and can be used with more complex models where climate sensitivity is diagnosed rather than prescribed. The parameter estimates can be used to create probabilistic climate projections using the UVic ESCM model in future studies.

Glacier monitoring and glacier-climate interactions in the tropical Andes: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veettil, Bijeesh Kozhikkodan; Wang, Shanshan; Florêncio de Souza, Sergio; Bremer, Ulisses Franz; Simões, Jefferson Cardia

2017-08-01

In this review, we summarized the evolution of glacier monitoring in the tropical Andes during the last few decades, particularly after the development of remote sensing and photogrammetry. Advantages and limitations of glacier mapping, applied so far, in Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia are discussed in detail. Glacier parameters such as the equilibrium line altitude, snowline and mass balance were given special attention in understanding the complex cryosphere-climate interactions, particularly using remote sensing techniques. Glaciers in the inner and the outer tropics were considered separately based on the precipitation and temperature conditions within a new framework. The applicability of various methods to use glacier records to understand and reconstruct the tropical Andean climate between the Last Glacial Maximum (11,700 years ago) and the present is also explored in this paper. Results from various studies published recently were analyzed and we tried to understand the differences in the magnitudes of glacier responses towards the climatic perturbations in the inner tropics and the outer tropics. Inner tropical glaciers, particularly those in Venezuela and Colombia near the January Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), are more vulnerable to increase in temperature. Surface energy balance experiments show that outer tropical glaciers respond to precipitation variability very rapidly in comparison with the temperature variability, particularly when moving towards the subtropics. We also analyzed the gradients in glacier response to climate change from the Pacific coast towards the Amazon Basin as well as with the elevation. Based on the current trends synthesised from recent studies, it is hypothesized that the glaciers in the inner tropics and the southern wet outer tropics will disappear first as a response to global warming whereas glaciers in the northern wet outer tropics and dry outer tropics show resistance to warming trends due to the occurrence of cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) together. Mountain glaciers in Ecuador show less retreat in response to the warming trend, probably due to high altitudes (above 5750 m), in comparison to glaciers in Colombia and Venezuela. However, elevation-dependent warming (EDW) is a major concern in the tropical Andes. In a nutshell, smaller glaciers at lower altitudes in the inner tropics and the southern wet outer tropics near the Amazon Basin are disappearing faster than other glaciers in the tropical Andes.

Macroweather Predictions and Climate Projections using Scaling and Historical Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, R.; Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.

2017-12-01

There are two fundamental time scales that are pertinent to decadal forecasts and multidecadal projections. The first is the lifetime of planetary scale structures, about 10 days (equal to the deterministic predictability limit), and the second is - in the anthropocene - the scale at which the forced anthropogenic variability exceeds the internal variability (around 16 - 18 years). These two time scales define three regimes of variability: weather, macroweather and climate that are respectively characterized by increasing, decreasing and then increasing varibility with scale.We discuss how macroweather temperature variability can be skilfully predicted to its theoretical stochastic predictability limits by exploiting its long-range memory with the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS). At multi-decadal timescales, the temperature response to forcing is approximately linear and this can be exploited to make projections with a Green's function, or Climate Response Function (CRF). To make the problem tractable, we exploit the temporal scaling symmetry and restrict our attention to global mean forcing and temperature response using a scaling CRF characterized by the scaling exponent H and an inner scale of linearity τ. An aerosol linear scaling factor α and a non-linear volcanic damping exponent ν were introduced to account for the large uncertainty in these forcings. We estimate the model and forcing parameters by Bayesian inference using historical data and these allow us to analytically calculate a median (and likely 66% range) for the transient climate response, and for the equilibrium climate sensitivity: 1.6K ([1.5,1.8]K) and 2.4K ([1.9,3.4]K) respectively. Aerosol forcing typically has large uncertainty and we find a modern (2005) forcing very likely range (90%) of [-1.0, -0.3] Wm-2 with median at -0.7 Wm-2. Projecting to 2100, we find that to keep the warming below 1.5 K, future emissions must undergo cuts similar to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 for which the probability to remain under 1.5 K is 48%. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-like futures overshoot with very high probability. This underscores that over the next century, the state of the environment will be strongly influenced by past, present and future economical policies.

Remnant Geometric Hall Response in a Quantum Quench.

PubMed

Wilson, Justin H; Song, Justin C W; Refael, Gil

2016-12-02

Out-of-equilibrium systems can host phenomena that transcend the usual restrictions of equilibrium systems. Here, we unveil how out-of-equilibrium states, prepared via a quantum quench in a two-band system, can exhibit a nonzero Hall-type current-a remnant Hall response-even when the instantaneous Hamiltonian is time reversal symmetric (in contrast to equilibrium Hall currents). Interestingly, the remnant Hall response arises from the coherent dynamics of the wave function that retain a remnant of its quantum geometry postquench, and can be traced to processes beyond linear response. Quenches in two-band Dirac systems are natural venues for realizing remnant Hall currents, which exist when either mirror or time-reversal symmetry are broken (before or after the quench). Its long time persistence, sensitivity to symmetry breaking, and decoherence-type relaxation processes allow it to be used as a sensitive diagnostic of the complex out-of-equilibrium dynamics readily controlled and probed in cold-atomic optical lattice experiments.

Glaciological and hydrological sensitivities in the Hindu Kush - Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, Joseph; Immerzeel, Walter

2016-04-01

Glacier responses to future climate change will affect hydrology at subbasin-scales. The main goal of this study is to assess glaciological and hydrological sensitivities of sub-basins throughout the Hindu Kush - Himalaya (HKH) region. We use a simple geometrical analysis based on a full glacier inventory and digital elevation model (DEM) to estimate sub-basin equilibrium line altitudes (ELA) from assumptions of steady-state accumulation area ratios (AARs). The ELA response to an increase in temperature is expressed as a function of mean annual precipitation, derived from a range of high-altitude studies. Changes in glacier contributions to streamflow in response to increased temperatures are examined for scenarios of both static and adjusted glacier geometries. On average, glacier contributions to streamflow increase by approximately 50% for a +1K warming based on a static geometry. Large decreases (-60% on average) occur in all basins when glacier geometries are instantaneously adjusted to reflect the new ELA. Finally, we provide estimates of sub-basin glacier response times that suggest a majority of basins will experience declining glacier contributions by the year 2100.

Historical Change of Equilibrium Water Temperature in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, H.

2015-12-01

Changes in freshwater ecosystems due to a climate change have been great concern for sustainable river basin management both for water resources utilization and ecological conservation. However, their impact seems to be difficult to evaluate because of wide variety of basin characteristics along a river network both in nature and social environment. This presentation uses equilibrium water temperature as a simple criterion index for evaluating the long-term changes of stream thermal environment due to the historical climate change in Japan. It examines, at first, the relationship between the equilibrium water temperature and the stream temperature observed for 7 years at a lower reach in the Ibo River, Japan. It analyzes, then, the seasonal and regional trends of the equilibrium water temperature change for the last 50 years at 133 meteorological station sites throughout Japan, discussing their rising or falling characteristics. The correlation analysis at the local reach of the Ibo River shows that the equilibrium water temperature has similar trend of change as the stream temperature. However, its value tends to be higher than the stream temperature in summer, while lower in winter. The onset of the higher equilibrium water temperature fluctuates annually from mid February to early April. This onset fluctuation at each spring could be influenced by the different amount of snow at the antecedent winter. The rising or falling trends of the equilibrium water temperature are analyzed both annually and seasonally through the regression analysis of the 133 sites in Japan. Consequently, the trends of the temperature change could be categorized by 12 patterns. As for the seasonal analysis, the results shows that there are many sites indicating the falling trend in spring and summer, and rising trends in autumn and winter. In particular, winter has the strong rising tendency throughout Japan. As for the regional analysis, the result illustrates the precise rationality; e.g., northern parts of Japan show the temperature fall in spring and the temperature rise in autumn, while the urbanized regions along the Pacific coastline indicate the temperature rise in all the four seasons.

Phoenix model

EPA Science Inventory

Phoenix (formerly referred to as the Second Generation Model or SGM) is a global general equilibrium model designed to analyze energy-economy-climate related questions and policy implications in the medium- to long-term. This model disaggregates the global economy into 26 industr...

Misconceptions of Students and Teachers in Chemical Equilibrium.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banerjee, Anil C.

1991-01-01

Written test was developed and administered to diagnose misconceptions in different areas of chemical equilibrium among 162 undergraduate chemistry students and 69 teachers of chemistry. Responses reveal widespread misconceptions among students and teachers in areas related to the prediction of equilibrium conditions, rate and equilibrium,…

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

PubMed

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-03-08

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

PubMed Central

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-01-01

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

The quasi-equilibrium response of MOS structures: Quasi-static factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okeke, M.; Balland, B.

1984-07-01

The dynamic response of a MOS structure driven into a non-equilibrium behaviour by a voltage ramp is presented. In contrast to Khun's quasi-static technique it is shown that any ramp-driven MOS structure has some degree of non-equilibrium. A quasi staticity factor μAK which serves as a measure of the degree of quasi-equilibrium, has been introduced for the first time. The mathematical model presented in the paper allows a better explanation of the experimental recordings. It is shown that this model could be used to analyse the various features of the response of the structure and that such physical parameters as the generation-rate, trap activation energy, and the effective capture constants could be obtained.

Mars: The initial emplacement of ground ice in response to the thermal evolution of its early crust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clifford, Stephen M.

1993-01-01

Given the geomorphic evidence for the widespread occurrence of water and ice in the early martian crust, and the difficulty involved in accounting for this distribution given the present climate, it has been suggested that the planet's early climate was originally more Earth-like, permitting the global emplacement of crustal H2O by direct precipitation as snow or rain. The resemblance of the martian valley networks to terrestrial runoff channels, and their almost exclusive occurrence in the planet's ancient (approximately 4 billion year old) heavily cratered terrain, is often cited as evidence of just such a period. An alternative school of thought suggests that the early climate did not differ substantially from that of today. Advocates of this view find no compelling reason to invoke a warmer, wetter period to explain the origin of the valley networks. Rather, they cite evidence that the primary mechanism of valley formation was ground water sapping, a process that does not require that surface water exist in equilibrium with the atmosphere. However, while sapping may successfully explain the origin of the small valleys, it fails to address how the crust was initially charged with ice as the climate evolved towards its present state. Therefore, given the uncertainty regarding the environmental conditions that prevailed on early Mars, the initial emplacement of ground ice is considered from two perspectives: (1) that the early climate started warm and wet, but gradually cooled with time; and (2) that it never differed substantially from that of today.

Long-range persistence in the global mean surface temperature and the global warming "time bomb"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypdal, M.; Rypdal, K.

2012-04-01

Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Maximum Likelihood Estimations (MLE) based on instrumental data over the last 160 years indicate that there is Long-Range Persistence (LRP) in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) on time scales of months to decades. The persistence is much higher in sea surface temperature than in land temperatures. Power spectral analysis of multi-model, multi-ensemble runs of global climate models indicate further that this persistence may extend to centennial and maybe even millennial time-scales. We also support these conclusions by wavelet variogram analysis, DFA, and MLE of Northern hemisphere mean surface temperature reconstructions over the last two millennia. These analyses indicate that the GMST is a strongly persistent noise with Hurst exponent H>0.9 on time scales from decades up to at least 500 years. We show that such LRP can be very important for long-term climate prediction and for the establishment of a "time bomb" in the climate system due to a growing energy imbalance caused by the slow relaxation to radiative equilibrium under rising anthropogenic forcing. We do this by the construction of a multi-parameter dynamic-stochastic model for the GMST response to deterministic and stochastic forcing, where LRP is represented by a power-law response function. Reconstructed data for total forcing and GMST over the last millennium are used with this model to estimate trend coefficients and Hurst exponent for the GMST on multi-century time scale by means of MLE. Ensembles of solutions generated from the stochastic model also allow us to estimate confidence intervals for these estimates.

Gulkana Glacier, Alaska-Mass balance, meteorology, and water measurements, 1997-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.; O'Neel, Shad

2011-01-01

The measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances for 1997-2001 in the Gulkana Glacier basin are determined at specific points and over the entire glacier area using the meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data. We provide descriptions of glacier geometry to aid in estimation of conventional and reference surface mass balances and descriptions of ice motion to aid in the understanding of the glacier's response to its changing geometry. These data provide annual estimates for area altitude distribution, equilibrium line altitude, and accumulation area ratio during the study interval. New determinations of historical area altitude distributions are given for 1900 and annually from 1966 to 2001. As original weather instrumentation is nearing the end of its deployment lifespan, we provide new estimates of overlap comparisons and precipitation catch efficiency. During 1997-2001, Gulkana Glacier showed a continued and accelerated negative mass balance trend, especially below the equilibrium line altitude where thinning was pronounced. Ice motion also slowed, which combined with the negative mass balance, resulted in glacier retreat under a warming climate. Average annual runoff augmentation by glacier shrinkage for 1997-2001 was 25 percent compared to the previous average of 13 percent, in accordance with the measured glacier volume reductions.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, N. R.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Naish, T. R.; Levy, R. H.; Fogwill, C. J.; Gasson, E. G. W.

2015-10-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

2015-10-15

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Insight into glacier climate interaction: reconstruction of the mass balance field using ice extent data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visnjevic, Vjeran; Herman, Frédéric; Licul, Aleksandar

2016-04-01

With the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), about 20 000 years ago, ended the most recent long-lasting cold phase in Earth's history. We recently developed a model that describes large-scale erosion and its response to climate and dynamical changes with the application to the Alps for the LGM period. Here we will present an inverse approach we have recently developed to infer the LGM mass balance from known ice extent data, focusing on a glacier or ice cap. The ice flow model is developed using the shallow ice approximation and the developed codes are accelerated using GPUs capabilities. The mass balance field is the constrained variable defined by the balance rate β and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), where c is the cutoff value: b = max(βṡ(S(z) - ELA), c) We show that such a mass balance can be constrained from the observed past ice extent and ice thickness. We are also investigating several different geostatistical methods to constrain spatially variable mass balance, and derive uncertainties on each of the mass balance parameters.

Pteropods are excellent recorders of surface temperature and carbonate ion concentration.

PubMed

Keul, N; Peijnenburg, K T C A; Andersen, N; Kitidis, V; Goetze, E; Schneider, R R

2017-10-03

Pteropods are among the first responders to ocean acidification and warming, but have not yet been widely explored as carriers of marine paleoenvironmental signals. In order to characterize the stable isotopic composition of aragonitic pteropod shells and their variation in response to climate change parameters, such as seawater temperature, pteropod shells (Heliconoides inflatus) were collected along a latitudinal transect in the Atlantic Ocean (31° N to 38° S). Comparison of shell oxygen isotopic composition to depth changes in the calculated aragonite equilibrium oxygen isotope values implies shallow calcification depths for H. inflatus (75 m). This species is therefore a good potential proxy carrier for past variations in surface ocean properties. Furthermore, we identified pteropod shells to be excellent recorders of climate change, as carbonate ion concentration and temperature in the upper water column have dominant influences on pteropod shell carbon and oxygen isotopic composition. These results, in combination with a broad distribution and high abundance, make the pteropod species studied here, H. inflatus, a promising new proxy carrier in paleoceanography.

Archaeobotanical evidence for climate as a driver of ecological community change across the anthropocene boundary.

PubMed

Ellis, Christopher J; Yahr, Rebecca; Belinchón, Rocío; Coppins, Brian J

2014-07-01

The biodiversity response to climate change is a major focus in conservation research and policy. Predictive models that are used to project the impact of climate change scenarios - such as bioclimatic envelope models - are widely applied and have come under severe scrutiny. Criticisms of such models have focussed on at least two problems. First, there is an assumption that climate is the primary driver of observed species distributions ('climatic equilibrium'), when other biogeographical controls are often reliably established. Second, a species' sensitivity to macroclimate may become less relevant when impacts are down-scaled to a local level, incorporating a modifying effect of species interactions structuring communities. This article examines the role of different drivers (climate, pollution and landscape habitat structure) in explaining spatial community variation for a widely applied bioindicator group: lichen epiphytes. To provide an analysis free of 'legacy effects' (e.g. formerly higher pollution loads), the study focused on hazel stems as a relatively short-lived and recently colonized substratum. For communities during the present day, climate is shown to interact with stem size/age as the most likely explanation of community composition, thus coupling a macroclimatic and community-scale effect. The position of present-day communities was projected into ordination space for eight sites in England and compared to the position of historical epiphyte communities from the same sites, reconstructed using preserved hazel wattles dating mainly to the 16th Century. This comparison of community structure for the late- to post-Mediaeval period, with the post-Industrial period, demonstrated a consistent shift among independent sites towards warmer and drier conditions, concurrent with the end of the Little Ice Age. Long-term temporal sensitivity of epiphyte communities to climate variation thus complements spatial community patterns. If more widely applied, preserved lichen epiphytes have potential to generate new baseline conditions of environment and biodiversity for preindustrial lowland Europe. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

2015-03-01

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

A note on Bjerkne's hypothesis for North Atlantic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryan, Kirk; Stouffer, Ron

1991-01-01

On decadal time-scales the historical surface temperature record over land in the Northern Hemisphere is dominated by polar amplified variations. These variations are coherent with SST anomalies concentrated in the Northwest Atlantic, but extending with lesser amplitude into the North Pacific as well. Bierknes suggested that multi-year SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic were due to irregular changes in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation. In support of the Bjerknes hypothesis there is evidence that winter overturning in the Labrador Sea was suppressed for a brief period from 1967-1969 by a cap of relative fresh water at the surface. Cause and effect are unclear, but this event was associated with a marked cooling of the entire Northern Hemisphere. The difference in SST averaged over the Northern Hemisphere oceans and SST averaged over the Southern Hemisphere oceans from the equator to 40°S is coherent with Sahel summer rainfall on decadal time scales. Empirical evidence is supported by numerical experiments with the British Meteorological Office atmospheric climate model which simulate augmented monsoonal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa in response to realistic warm SST anomalies in the Northwest Atlantic. A coupled ocean-atmosphere global model exhibits two equilibrium climate states. One has an active thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic and the other does not. The two climate states provide an extreme example which illustrates the type of large scale air sea interaction Bjerknes visualized as a mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on decadal time-scales.

Local equilibrium and the second law of thermodynamics for irreversible systems with thermodynamic inertia.

PubMed

Glavatskiy, K S

2015-10-28

Validity of local equilibrium has been questioned for non-equilibrium systems which are characterized by delayed response. In particular, for systems with non-zero thermodynamic inertia, the assumption of local equilibrium leads to negative values of the entropy production, which is in contradiction with the second law of thermodynamics. In this paper, we address this question by suggesting a variational formulation of irreversible evolution of a system with non-zero thermodynamic inertia. We introduce the Lagrangian, which depends on the properties of the normal and the so-called "mirror-image" systems. We show that the standard evolution equations, in particular, the Maxwell-Cattaneo-Vernotte equation, can be derived from the variational procedure without going beyond the assumption of local equilibrium. We also argue that the second law of thermodynamics in non-equilibrium should be understood as a consequence of the variational procedure and the property of local equilibrium. For systems with instantaneous response this leads to the standard requirement of the local instantaneous entropy production being always positive. However, if a system is characterized by delayed response, the formulation of the second law of thermodynamics should be altered. In particular, the quantity, which is always positive, is not the instantaneous entropy production, but the entropy production averaged over a proper time interval.

Equilibrium line altitudes and climate during the Late Holocene glacial maximum in the Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagredo, E. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Kelly, M. A.; Aravena, J.

2012-12-01

Documenting the spatial and temporal pattern of climate change associated with widespread glacial fluctuations during Late Holocene time is critical for understanding the mechanisms underlying these climatic/glacial events. Here, we estimate the change in equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) associated with the most prominent glacial advance during the last millennium for four alpine glaciers in different climatic regimes in the Andes. We reconstruct scenarios of the climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation anomalies) that accommodate the ELA depressions. The glaciers studied are an unnamed glacier in the Cordillera Vilcanota (13°S), Tapado glacier (30°S), Cipreses glacier (34°S) and Tranquilo glacier (47°S). Results from the combined geomorphic analysis and application of a surface energy and mass balance model suggest that there is not a unique combination of temperature and precipitation conditions that accommodates the ELA change recorded since the Late Holocene maximum at the four sites. Assuming no change in precipitation, the ELA depressions could be explained by a cooling (with respect to present-day values) of at least -0.7°C at Cordillera Vilcanota, -1.0°C at Tapado glacier, -0.5°C at Cipreses glacier and -1.3°C at Tranquilo glacier. In contrast, assuming no change in temperature, the ELA depressions could be explained by an increase in the precipitation of at least 0.51 m (63% of the annual precipitation) at Cordillera Vilcanota, 0.33 m (95%) at Tapado glacier, 0.17 m (21%) at Cipreses glacier and 0.68 m (62%) at Tranquilo glacier. Our results serve as targets to test predictions from models of global climate dynamics for the last millennium and contribute to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the Late Holocene glacial fluctuations.

Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE)

EPA Science Inventory

ADAGE is a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model capable of examining many types of economic, energy, environmental, climate change mitigation, and trade policies at the international, national, U.S. regional, and U.S. state levels. To investigate proposed policy eff...

Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

2016-10-01

This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012-2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.

Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

2015-12-01

Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes; and the introduction of suitable agricultural crops that may be potentially adapted to a warmer climate in the expected steppe and forest-steppe.

Achieving CO 2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andres Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana Maria

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increasemore » in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.« less

Achieving CO 2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

DOE PAGES

Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andres Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana Maria; ...

2015-06-03

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increasemore » in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.« less

Equilibrium-line altitude during the Antarctic Cold Reversal at Río Tranquilo glacier (47°S), Central Patagonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagredo, E. A.; Ward, D.; Gonzalez, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Kelly, M. A.; Aravena, J. C.

2013-12-01

Documenting the magnitude of former glacial fluctuations is critical for understanding the mechanisms and climate signals underlying these glacial events. Here, we estimate the equilibrium line altitudes (ELA) associated with the most prominent glacial advance occurred during the Last Glacial Termination (T1) at Tranquilo glacier (47°S). Geomorphic evidence suggest that, following the Last Glacial Maximum, several small glaciers, which today occupy the headwalls of Río Tranquilo valley, expanded and coalesced, forming the extended version of the Tranquilo glacier at least three different times. 10Be ages suggest that the most prominent of these glacial advances occurred ~13 kyr BP, at the end of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR). Based on glacial geomorphic mapping and the application of a glaciological model (GC2D), we reconstruct the former glacial surface at Tranquilo glacier and estimate the ELA for this major glacial advance. Preliminary data show that the equilibrium line altitude at Tranquilo glacier during the ACR could have been up to 500 m lower than the present. This study represents the first effort to quantify the ELA during the Antarctic Cold Reversal in Patagonia, and provides a baseline to decipher the climatic signals driving this glacial event.

Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

2018-03-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

Long-term aging behaviors in a model soft colloidal system.

PubMed

Li, Qi; Peng, Xiaoguang; McKenna, Gregory B

2017-02-15

Colloidal and molecular systems share similar behaviors near to the glass transition volume fraction or temperature. Here, aging behaviors after volume fraction up-jump (induced by performing temperature down-jumps) conditions for a PS-PNIPAM/AA soft colloidal system were investigated using light scattering (diffusing wave spectroscopy, DWS). Both aging responses and equilibrium dynamics were investigated. For the aging responses, long-term experiments (100 000 s) were performed, and both equilibrium and non-equilibrium behaviors of the system were obtained. In the equilibrium state, as effective volume fraction increases (or temperature decreases), the colloidal dispersion displays a transition from the liquid to a glassy state. The equilibrium α-relaxation dynamics strongly depend on both the effective volume fraction and the initial mass concentration for the studied colloidal systems. Compared with prior results from our lab [X. Di, X. Peng and G. B. McKenna, J. Chem. Phys., 2014, 140, 054903], the effective volume fractions investigated spanned a wider range, to deeper into the glassy domain. The results show that the α-relaxation time τ α of the samples aged into equilibrium deviate from the classical Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann (VFT)-type expectations and the super-Arrhenius signature disappears above the glass transition volume fraction. The non-equilibrium aging response shows that the time for the structural evolution into equilibrium and the α-relaxation time are decoupled. The DWS investigation of the aging behavior after different volume fraction jumps reveals a different non-equilibrium or aging behavior for the considered colloidal systems compared with either molecular glasses or the macroscopic rheology of a similar colloidal dispersions.

Effects of cumulus entrainment and multiple cloud types on a January global climate model simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yao, Mao-Sung; Del Genio, Anthony D.

1989-01-01

An improved version of the GISS Model II cumulus parameterization designed for long-term climate integrations is used to study the effects of entrainment and multiple cloud types on the January climate simulation. Instead of prescribing convective mass as a fixed fraction of the cloud base grid-box mass, it is calculated based on the closure assumption that the cumulus convection restores the atmosphere to a neutral moist convective state at cloud base. This change alone significantly improves the distribution of precipitation, convective mass exchanges, and frequencies in the January climate. The vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere exhibits quasi-equilibrium behavior when this closure is used, even though there is no explicit constraint applied above cloud base.

Modelling Greenland Outlet Glaciers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

vanderVeen, Cornelis; Abdalati, Waleed (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this project was to develop simple yet realistic models of Greenland outlet glaciers to better understand ongoing changes and to identify possible causes for these changes. Several approaches can be taken to evaluate the interaction between climate forcing and ice dynamics, and the consequent ice-sheet response, which may involve changes in flow style. To evaluate the icesheet response to mass-balance forcing, Van der Veen (Journal of Geophysical Research, in press) makes the assumption that this response can be considered a perturbation on the reference state and may be evaluated separately from how this reference state evolves over time. Mass-balance forcing has an immediate effect on the ice sheet. Initially, the rate of thickness change as compared to the reference state equals the perturbation in snowfall or ablation. If the forcing persists, the ice sheet responds dynamically, adjusting the rate at which ice is evacuated from the interior to the margins, to achieve a new equilibrium. For large ice sheets, this dynamic adjustment may last for thousands of years, with the magnitude of change decreasing steadily over time as a new equilibrium is approached. This response can be described using kinematic wave theory. This theory, modified to pertain to Greenland drainage basins, was used to evaluate possible ice-sheet responses to perturbations in surface mass balance. The reference state is defined based on measurements along the central flowline of Petermann Glacier in north-west Greenland, and perturbations on this state considered. The advantage of this approach is that the particulars of the dynamical flow regime need not be explicitly known but are incorporated through the parameterization of the reference ice flux or longitudinal velocity profile. The results of the kinematic wave model indicate that significant rates of thickness change can occur immediately after the prescribed change in surface mass balance but adjustments in flow rapidly diminish these rates to a few cm/yr at most. The time scale for adjustment is of the order of a thousand years or so.

Reconstruction of Late Quaternary Climate in Central Europe - A Comparison of Stable Isotope and Trace Element Variations in Speleothems From Different Cave Systems in Germany.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordhoff, P.; Wiegand, B.; Simon, K.; Rosendahl, W.; Hansen, B. T.; Kempe, S.

2003-12-01

Speleothems (stalagmites, stalactites, flowstones) are important archives for Late Quaternary continental climatic and paleo-environmental reconstruction. Speleothems form when calcium carbonate precipitates from solutions seeping into caves hosted e.g. in limestone or dolomite complexes. Information of past climate variability and changes in local environmental conditions can be obtained from signatures of the stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon as well as trace element pattern recorded in speleothems. Reconstruction of paleo-temperature and past environmental conditions from stable isotopes, however, require isotopic equilibrium between the drip water and the precipitating calcium carbonate. Results from Dietzel et al. (1992) and Johnson and Ingram (2001) indicate that the formation of modern travertine and speleothem calcite occurs under isotopic equilibrium. Factors that influence the stable oxygen and carbon isotope composition during speleothem precipitation include e.g. the moisture source and precipitation, photosynthetic pathways, the bedrock proportion, and the drip rate. This often leads to a situation with several variables. However, a specific interpretation is possible when dealing with environments where only one of the factors is dominant, or specific settings are assumed to be invariant, or further proxies like trace element variations help to define the frame conditions during speleothem formation. Concentrations of trace elements (e.g. Sr, Mg) which are co-precipitated with calcite are related to changes in the composition of the solution and strongly depend on the dissolution/precipitation dynamics along drip water flow paths. In a multiproxy approach they are a valuable tool for the interpretation of the recorded stable isotope variations. We present first results from different cave systems located in the Swabian Alps and the Harz Mountains (Germany). Our study includes a high-resolution multiproxy approach, using U/Th-TIMS data, stable oxygen/carbon isotope data, and geochemical compositions of speleothems, covering ages from the Late Pleistocene to the Early Holocene. The results are compared to geochemical data from host rocks, soil zones, cave sediments, drip water compositions, and recent calcium carbonate precipitates. Understanding the response of a cave system to the actual climatic, hydrologic and environmental regimen is a main requirement for the interpretation of "paleo-information" conserved in speleothems in order to lead to a coherent picture of past continental climate dynamics. References: Dietzel M., Usdowski E., and Hoefs J., (1992): Applied Geochemistry 7: 177-184. Johnson, K.R. and Ingram, B.L. (2001): Abstract volume, 4th Internat. Symp. On Applied Isotope Geochemistry, Pacific Groove, USA: 70-72.

The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, C. H.; Lau, K. M.; Tao, W. K.; Simpson, J.

1994-01-01

A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated latent heating in the water cycle is the dominant source in the heat budget that generates a net upward motion in convective regions, upper stratiform regions (above the freezing level), and a downward motion in the lower stratiform regions. The budgets reveal a cycle of water and energy resulted from radiation-dynamic-convection interactions that maintain equilibrium of the atmosphere.

CARBON BALANCE OF THE CONTINUOUS PERMAFROST ZONE OF RUSSIA

EPA Science Inventory

An increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is projected to cause climate warming. arming of the permafrost environment could change the balance between carbon accumulation and decomposition processes and substantially disrupt the equilibrium of the carbon cycle. arming m...

Do planetary seasons play a role in attaining stable climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, Kasper Wibeck; Bohr, Jakob

2018-05-01

A simple phenomenological account for planetary climate instabilities is presented. The description is based on the standard model where the balance of incoming stellar radiation and outward thermal radiation is described by the effective planet temperature. Often, it is found to have three different points, or temperatures, where the influx of radiation is balanced with the out-flux, even with conserved boundary conditions. Two of these points are relatively long-term stable, namely the point corresponding to a cold climate and the point corresponding to a hot climate. In a classical sense these points are equilibrium balance points. The hypothesis promoted in this paper is the possibility that the intermediate third point can become long-term stable by being driven dynamically. The initially unstable point is made relatively stable over a long period by the presence of seasonal climate variations.

A hybrid formalism of aerosol gas phase interaction for 3-D global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benduhn, F.

2009-04-01

Aerosol chemical composition is a relevant factor to the global climate system with respect to both atmospheric chemistry and the aerosol direct and indirect effects. Aerosol chemical composition determines the capacity of aerosol particles to act as cloud condensation nuclei both explicitly via particle size and implicitly via the aerosol hygroscopic property. Due to the primary role of clouds in the climate system and the sensitivity of cloud formation and radiative properties to the cloud droplet number it is necessary to determine with accuracy the chemical composition of the aerosol. Dissolution, although a formally fairly well known process, may be subject to numerically prohibitive properties that result from the chemical interaction of the species engaged. So-far approaches to model the dissolution of inorganics into the aerosol liquid phase in the framework of a 3-D global model were based on an equilibrium, transient or hybrid equilibrium-transient approach. All of these methods present the disadvantage of a priori assumptions with respect to the mechanism and/or are numerically not manageable in the context of a global climate system model. In this paper a new hybrid formalism to aerosol gas phase interaction is presented within the framework of the H2SO4/HNO3/HCl/NH3 system and a modal approach of aerosol size discretisation. The formalism is distinct from prior hybrid approaches in as much as no a priori assumption on the nature of the regime a particular aerosol mode is in is made. Whether a particular mode is set to be in the equilibrium or the transitory regime is continuously determined during each time increment against relevant criteria considering the estimated equilibration time interval and the interdependence of the aerosol modes relative to the partitioning of the dissolving species. Doing this the aerosol composition range of numerical stiffness due to species interaction during transient dissolution is effectively eluded, and the numerical expense of dissolution in the transient regime is reduced through the minimisation of the number of modes in this regime and a larger time step. Containment of the numerical expense of the modes in the equilibrium regime is ensured through the usage of either an analytical equilibrium solver that requires iteration among the equilibrium modes, or a simple numerical solver based on a differential approach that requires iteration among the chemical species. Both equilibrium solvers require iteration over the water content and the activity coefficients. Decision for using either one or the other solver is made upon the consideration of the actual equilibrating mechanism, either chemical interaction or gas phase partial pressure variation, respectively. The formalism should thus ally appropriate process simplification resulting in reasonable computation time to a high degree of real process conformity as it is ensured by a transitory representation of dissolution. The resulting effectiveness and limits of the formalism are illustrated with numerical examples.

Landscape evolution and agricultural land salinization in coastal area: A conceptual model.

PubMed

Bless, Aplena Elen; Colin, François; Crabit, Armand; Devaux, Nicolas; Philippon, Olivier; Follain, Stéphane

2018-06-01

Soil salinization is a major threat to agricultural lands. Among salt-affected lands, coastal areas could be considered as highly complex systems, where salinization degradation due to anthropogenic pressure and climate-induced changes could significantly alter system functioning. For such complex systems, conceptual models can be used as evaluation tools in a preliminary step to identify the main evolutionary processes responsible for soil and water salinization. This study aimed to propose a conceptual model for water fluxes in a coastal area affected by salinity, which can help to identify the relationships between agricultural landscape evolution and actual salinity. First, we conducted field investigations from 2012 to 2016, mainly based on both soil (EC 1/5 ) and water (EC w ) electrical conductivity survey. This allowed us to characterize spatial structures for EC 1/5 and EC w and to identify the river as a preponderant factor in land salinization. Subsequently, we proposed and used a conceptual model for water fluxes and conducted a time analysis (1962-2012) for three of its main constitutive elements, namely climate, river, and land systems. When integrated within the conceptual model framework, it appeared that the evolution of all constitutive elements since 1962 was responsible for the disruption of system equilibrium, favoring overall salt accumulation in the soil root zone. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and glacier retreat drive shifts in an Antarctic benthic ecosystem.

PubMed

Sahade, Ricardo; Lagger, Cristian; Torre, Luciana; Momo, Fernando; Monien, Patrick; Schloss, Irene; Barnes, David K A; Servetto, Natalia; Tarantelli, Soledad; Tatián, Marcos; Zamboni, Nadia; Abele, Doris

2015-11-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is one of the three places on Earth that registered the most intense warming in the last 50 years, almost five times the global mean. This warming has strongly affected the cryosphere, causing the largest ice-shelf collapses ever observed and the retreat of 87% of glaciers. Ecosystem responses, although increasingly predicted, have been mainly reported for pelagic systems. However, and despite most Antarctic species being benthic, responses in the Antarctic benthos have been detected in only a few species, and major effects at assemblage level are unknown. This is probably due to the scarcity of baselines against which to assess change. We performed repeat surveys of coastal benthos in 1994, 1998, and 2010, analyzing community structure and environmental variables at King George Island, Antarctica. We report a marked shift in an Antarctic benthic community that can be linked to ongoing climate change. However, rather than temperature as the primary factor, we highlight the resulting increased sediment runoff, triggered by glacier retreat, as the potential causal factor. The sudden shift from a "filter feeders-ascidian domination" to a "mixed assemblage" suggests that thresholds (for example, of tolerable sedimentation) and alternative equilibrium states, depending on the reversibility of the changes, could be possible traits of this ecosystem. Sedimentation processes will be increasing under the current scenario of glacier retreat, and attention needs to be paid to its effects along the AP.

Application of a fast Newton-Krylov solver for equilibrium simulations of phosphorus and oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, François

2017-11-01

Model drift due to inadequate spinup is a serious problem that complicates the interpretation of climate change simulations. Even after a 300 year spinup we show that solutions are not only still drifting but often drifting away from their eventual equilibrium over large parts of the ocean. Here we present a Newton-Krylov solver for computing cyclostationary equilibrium solutions of a biogeochemical model for the cycling of phosphorus and oxygen. In addition to using previously developed preconditioning strategies - time-averaging and coarse-graining the Jacobian matrix - we also introduce a new strategy: the adiabatic elimination of a fast variable (particulate organic phosphorus) by slaving it to a slow variable (dissolved inorganic phosphorus). We use transport matrices derived from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a nominal horizontal resolution of 1° × 1° and 60 vertical levels to implement and test the solver. We find that the new solver obtains seasonally-varying equilibrium solutions with no visible drift using no more than 80 simulation years.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong

2017-11-01

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

Climate change and biological invasions: evidence, expectations, and response options.

PubMed

Hulme, Philip E

2017-08-01

A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human-assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost-effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only integrates bioclimatic suitability and population-level demographic rates but also simulation of landscape-level processes (e.g. dispersal, land-use change, host/habitat distribution, non-climatic edaphic constraints). In terms of invasive alien species that have known economic or biodiversity impacts, the taxa that are likely to be the most responsive are plant pathogens and insect pests of agricultural crops. However, the extent to which climate adaptation strategies lead to new crops, altered rotations, and different farming practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) will all shape the potential agricultural impacts of alien species. The greatest uncertainty in the effects of climate change on biological invasions exists with identifying the future character of new species introductions and predicting ecosystem impacts. Two complementary strategies may work under these conditions of high uncertainty: (i) prioritise ecosystems in terms of their perceived vulnerability to climate change and prevent ingress or expansion of alien species therein that may exacerbate problems; (ii) target those ecosystem already threatened by alien species and implement management to prevent the situation deteriorating under climate change. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Local equilibrium and the second law of thermodynamics for irreversible systems with thermodynamic inertia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glavatskiy, K. S.

Validity of local equilibrium has been questioned for non-equilibrium systems which are characterized by delayed response. In particular, for systems with non-zero thermodynamic inertia, the assumption of local equilibrium leads to negative values of the entropy production, which is in contradiction with the second law of thermodynamics. In this paper, we address this question by suggesting a variational formulation of irreversible evolution of a system with non-zero thermodynamic inertia. We introduce the Lagrangian, which depends on the properties of the normal and the so-called “mirror-image” systems. We show that the standard evolution equations, in particular, the Maxwell-Cattaneo-Vernotte equation, can bemore » derived from the variational procedure without going beyond the assumption of local equilibrium. We also argue that the second law of thermodynamics in non-equilibrium should be understood as a consequence of the variational procedure and the property of local equilibrium. For systems with instantaneous response this leads to the standard requirement of the local instantaneous entropy production being always positive. However, if a system is characterized by delayed response, the formulation of the second law of thermodynamics should be altered. In particular, the quantity, which is always positive, is not the instantaneous entropy production, but the entropy production averaged over a proper time interval.« less

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beamer, J. P.; Hill, D. F.; McGrath, D.; Arendt, A.; Kienholz, C.

2017-09-01

High-resolution regional-scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070-2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA-wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Intermodel variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain-on-snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

The Effect of Latitudinal Variation on Shrimp Reproductive Strategies.

PubMed

van de Kerk, Madelon; Jones Littles, Chanda; Saucedo, Omar; Lorenzen, Kai

2016-01-01

Reproductive strategies comprise the timing and frequency of reproductive events and the number of offspring per reproductive event, depending on factors such as climate conditions. Therefore, species that exhibit plasticity in the allocation of reproductive effort can alter their behavior in response to climate change. Studying how the reproductive strategy of species varies along the latitudinal gradient can help us understand and predict how they will respond to climate change. We investigated the effects of the temporal allocation of reproductive effort on the population size of brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) along a latitudinal gradient. Multiple shrimp species exhibit variation in their reproductive strategies, and given the economic importance of brown shrimp to the commercial fishing sector of the Unites States, changes in the timing of their reproduction could have significant economic and social consequences. We used a stage-based, density-dependent matrix population model tailored to the life history of brown shrimp. Shrimp growth rates and environmental carrying capacity were varied based on the seasonal climate conditions at different latitudes, and we estimated the population size at equilibrium. The length of the growing season increased with decreasing latitude and the reproductive strategy leading to the highest population size changed from one annual birth pulse with high reproductive output to continuous low-output reproduction. Hence, our model confirms the classical paradigm of continuous reproduction at low latitudes, with increased seasonality of the breeding period towards the poles. Our results also demonstrate the potential for variation in climate to affect the optimal reproductive strategy for achieving maximum population sizes. Certainly, understanding these dynamics may inform more comprehensive management strategies for commercially important species like brown shrimp.

Climatic controls of western U.S. glaciers at the last glacial maximum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Clark, P.U.

1997-01-01

We use a nested atmospheric modeling strategy to simulate precipitation and temperature of the western United States 18,000 years ago (18 ka). The high resolution of the nested model allows us to isolate the regional structure of summer temperature and winter precipitation that is crucial to determination of the net mass balance of late-Pleistocene mountain glaciers in this region of diverse topography and climate. Modeling results suggest that climatic controls of these glaciers varied significantly over the western U.S. Glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains existed under relatively cold July temperatures and low winter accumulation, reflecting anticyclonic, easterly wind flow off the Laurentide Ice Sheet. In contrast, glaciers that existed under relatively warmer and wetter conditions are located along the Pacific coast south of Oregon, where enhanced westerlies delivered higher precipitation than at present. Between these two groupings lie glaciers that were controlled by a mix of cold and wet conditions attributed to the convergence of cold air from the ice sheet and moisture derived from the westerlies. Sensitivity tests suggest that, for our simulated 18 ka climate, many of the glaciers exhibit a variable response to climate but were generally more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation, particularly those glaciers in central Idaho and the Yellowstone Plateau. Our results support arguments that temperature depression generally played a larger role in lowering equilibrium line altitudes in the western U.S. during the last glacial maximum than did increased precipitation, although the magnitude of temperature depression required for steady-state mass balance varied from 8-18??C. Only the Sierra Nevada glaciers required a substantial increase in precipitation to achieve steady-state mass balance, while glaciers in the Cascade Range existed with decreased precipitation.

Land Conversion in Amazonia and Northern South America; Influences on Regional Hydrology and Ecosystem Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Ryan Gary

A numerical model of the terrestrial biosphere (Ecosystem Demography Model) is compbined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) to investigate how land conversion in the Amazon and Northern South America have changed the hydrology of the region, and to see if those changes are significant enough to produce an ecological response. Two numerical realizations of the structure and composition of terrestrial vegetation are used as boundary conditions in a simulation of the regional land surface and atmosphere. One realization seeks to capture the present day vegetation condition that includes human deforestation and land-conversion, the other is an estimate of the potential structure and composition of the region without human influence. Model output is assessed for consistent and significant differences in hydrometeorology. Locations that show compelling differences are taken as case studies. The seasonal biases in precipitation at these locations are then used to create perturbations to long-term climate datasets. These perturbations then drive long-term simulations of dynamic vegetation to see if the climate consistent with a potential regional vegetation could elicit a change in the vegetation equilibrium at the site. Results show that South American land conversion has had consistent impacts on the regional patterning of precipitation. At some locations, changes in precipitation are persistent and constitute a significant fraction of total precipitation. Land-conversion has decreased mean continental evaporation and increased mean moisture convergence. Case study simulations of long term vegetation dynamic indicate that a hydrologic climate consistent with regional potential vegetation can indeed have significant influence on ecosystem structure and composition, particularly in water limited growth conditions. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, libraries.mit.edu/docs - docs@mit.edu)

Effects of Drake Passage on a strongly eddying global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viebahn, Jan; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2015-04-01

During the past 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major change from warm 'greenhouse' to colder 'icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The Eocene-Oligocene (~34 Ma) and Oligocene-Miocene (~23 Ma) boundaries reflect major transitions in Cenozoic global climate change. Proposed mechanisms of these transitions include reorganization of ocean circulation due to critical gateway opening/deepening, changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration, and feedback mechanisms related to land-ice formation. Drake Passage (DP) is an intensively studied gateway because it plays a central role in closing the transport pathways of heat and chemicals in the ocean. The climate response to a closed DP has been explored with a variety of general circulation models, however, all of these models employ low model-grid resolutions such that the effects of subgrid-scale fluctuations ('eddies') are parameterized. We present results of the first high-resolution (0.1° horizontally) realistic global ocean model simulation with a closed DP in which the eddy field is largely resolved. The simulation extends over more than 200 years such that the strong transient adjustment process is passed and a near-equilibrium ocean state is reached. The effects of DP are diagnosed by comparing with both an open DP high-resolution control simulation (of same length) and corresponding low-resolution simulations. By focussing on the heat/tracer transports we demonstrate that the results are twofold: Considering spatially integrated transports the overall response to a closed DP is well captured by low-resolution simulations. However, looking at the actual spatial distributions drastic differences appear between far-scattered high-resolution and laminar-uniform low-resolution fields. We conclude that sparse and highly localized tracer proxy observations have to be interpreted carefully with the help of high-resolution model simulations.

Formulation, General Features and Global Calibration of a Bioenergetically-Constrained Fishery Model

PubMed Central

Bianchi, Daniele; Galbraith, Eric D.

2017-01-01

Human exploitation of marine resources is profoundly altering marine ecosystems, while climate change is expected to further impact commercially-harvested fish and other species. Although the global fishery is a highly complex system with many unpredictable aspects, the bioenergetic limits on fish production and the response of fishing effort to profit are both relatively tractable, and are sure to play important roles. Here we describe a generalized, coupled biological-economic model of the global marine fishery that represents both of these aspects in a unified framework, the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model. BOATS predicts fish production according to size spectra as a function of net primary production and temperature, and dynamically determines harvest spectra from the biomass density and interactive, prognostic fishing effort. Within this framework, the equilibrium fish biomass is determined by the economic forcings of catchability, ex-vessel price and cost per unit effort, while the peak harvest depends on the ecosystem parameters. Comparison of a large ensemble of idealized simulations with observational databases, focusing on historical biomass and peak harvests, allows us to narrow the range of several uncertain ecosystem parameters, rule out most parameter combinations, and select an optimal ensemble of model variants. Compared to the prior distributions, model variants with lower values of the mortality rate, trophic efficiency, and allometric constant agree better with observations. For most acceptable parameter combinations, natural mortality rates are more strongly affected by temperature than growth rates, suggesting different sensitivities of these processes to climate change. These results highlight the utility of adopting large-scale, aggregated data constraints to reduce model parameter uncertainties and to better predict the response of fisheries to human behaviour and climate change. PMID:28103280

Formulation, General Features and Global Calibration of a Bioenergetically-Constrained Fishery Model.

PubMed

Carozza, David A; Bianchi, Daniele; Galbraith, Eric D

2017-01-01

Human exploitation of marine resources is profoundly altering marine ecosystems, while climate change is expected to further impact commercially-harvested fish and other species. Although the global fishery is a highly complex system with many unpredictable aspects, the bioenergetic limits on fish production and the response of fishing effort to profit are both relatively tractable, and are sure to play important roles. Here we describe a generalized, coupled biological-economic model of the global marine fishery that represents both of these aspects in a unified framework, the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model. BOATS predicts fish production according to size spectra as a function of net primary production and temperature, and dynamically determines harvest spectra from the biomass density and interactive, prognostic fishing effort. Within this framework, the equilibrium fish biomass is determined by the economic forcings of catchability, ex-vessel price and cost per unit effort, while the peak harvest depends on the ecosystem parameters. Comparison of a large ensemble of idealized simulations with observational databases, focusing on historical biomass and peak harvests, allows us to narrow the range of several uncertain ecosystem parameters, rule out most parameter combinations, and select an optimal ensemble of model variants. Compared to the prior distributions, model variants with lower values of the mortality rate, trophic efficiency, and allometric constant agree better with observations. For most acceptable parameter combinations, natural mortality rates are more strongly affected by temperature than growth rates, suggesting different sensitivities of these processes to climate change. These results highlight the utility of adopting large-scale, aggregated data constraints to reduce model parameter uncertainties and to better predict the response of fisheries to human behaviour and climate change.

Radiation-induced equilibrium is a balance between tumor cell proliferation and T cell-mediated killing

PubMed Central

Liang, Hua; Deng, Liufu; Chmura, Steven; Burnette, Byron; Liadis, Nicole; Darga, Thomas; Beckett, Michael A.; Lingen, Mark W.; Witt, MaryEllyn; Weichselbaum, Ralph R.; Fu, Yang-Xin

2013-01-01

Local failures following radiation therapy are multifactorial and the contributions of the tumor and the host are complex. Current models of tumor equilibrium suggest that a balance exists between cell birth and cell death due to insufficient angiogenesis, immune effects, or intrinsic cellular factors. We investigated whether host immune responses contribute to radiation induced tumor equilibrium in animal models. We report an essential role for immune cells and their cytokines in suppressing tumor cell regrowth in two experimental animal model systems. Depletion of T cells or neutralization of interferon-gamma reversed radiation-induced equilibrium leading to tumor regrowth. We also demonstrate that PD-L1 blockade augments T cell responses leading to rejection of tumors in radiation induced equilibrium. We identify an active interplay between tumor cells and immune cells that occurs in radiation-induced tumor equilibrium and suggest a potential role for disruption of the PD-L1/PD-1 axis in increasing local tumor control. PMID:23630355

Arctic cities and climate change: climate-induced changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Streletskiy, Dmitry; Swales, Timothy

2014-05-01

Planned socio-economic development during the Soviet period promoted migration into the Arctic and work force consolidation in urbanized settlements to support mineral resources extraction and transportation industries. These policies have resulted in very high level of urbanization in the Soviet Arctic. Despite the mass migration from the northern regions during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the diminishing government support, the Russian Arctic population remains predominantly urban. In five Russian Administrative regions underlined by permafrost and bordering the Arctic Ocean 66 to 82% (depending on region) of the total population is living in Soviet-era urban communities. The political, economic and demographic changes in the Russian Arctic over the last 20 years are further complicated by climate change which is greatly amplified in the Arctic region. One of the most significant impacts of climate change on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. The majority of structures in the Russian Arctic are built according to the passive principle, which promotes equilibrium between the permafrost thermal regime and infrastructure foundations. This presentation is focused on quantitative assessment of potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to ongoing and future climatic changes using permafrost - geotechnical model forced by GCM-projected climate. To address the uncertainties in GCM projections we have utilized results from 6 models participated in most recent IPCC model inter-comparison project. The analysis was conducted for entire extent of Russian permafrost-affected area and on several representative urban communities. Our results demonstrate that significant observed reduction in urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian Arctic can be attributed to climatic changes and that projected future climatic changes will further negatively affect communities on permafrost. However, the uncertainties in magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of projected climate change produced by individual GCMs translate to substantial variability of the future state of infrastructure built on permafrost.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Naish, Timothy R.; Levy, Richard H.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Gasson, Edward G. W.

2016-04-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above present values by the end of this century (Collins et al., 2013). If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (Rogelj et al., 2012). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Collins et al., 2013). We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick

2009-01-01

Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

On the icy edge at Louth and Korolev craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bapst, Jonathan; Byrne, Shane; Brown, Adrian J.

2018-07-01

The modern climate of Mars has been well characterized from over a decade of orbiting spacecraft, in situ measurements via landers/rovers, and theoretical advances in climate modeling. Nonetheless, important questions remain unanswered, including the present-day mass balance of the north polar residual cap and its icy outliers. Exposed water-ice mounds are found in craters, and extend as far equatorward as 70.2°N. Due to their southerly location, these ice mounds are likely more sensitive to ongoing changes in climate. We analyze high-resolution images of the Louth crater ice mound, and employ a coupled 1-D thermal and atmospheric model to estimate annual mass balance of both Louth and Korolev water ice. We incorporate the effects of shallowly-sloping surfaces and seasonally-dependent water ice albedo. No clear trend in the advance or retreat of Louth crater water ice is observed in over 4 Mars years of repeat, high-resolution images. Secular changes are either sufficiently small as to not be detected, or the ice is in equilibrium. Modeled mass balance ranges from -6 to +2 mm of water ice per Mars year at both sites, with nominal cases being in near-equilibrium (<0.5 mm of ice loss per Mars year).

Managing for forage and grazingland resilience to maintain enterprise resilience in the Northern Great Plains of the US

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Maintaining grazingland and enterprise resilience under changing climatic and economic conditions requires novel, resilience based, management strategies. State and Transition models provide a solid foundation and framework for management of grazinglands using non-equilibrium dynamics. These models ...

Thirteen thousand years of southeastern Mediterranean climate variability inferred from an integrative planktic foraminiferal-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mojtahid, Meryem; Manceau, Rose; Schiebel, Ralf; Hennekam, Rick; de Lange, Gert J.

2015-04-01

Over the past 13 ka, the hydrology for the southeastern Mediterranean was mainly regulated by Nile River runoff, which in turn was controlled by climate forcing. Being affected by orbital forcing, and the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), planktic foraminiferal data (assemblages, stable isotopes, and size properties) indicate three major periods. (1) From 13.0 to 11.5 ka, the upper water column was well-mixed, cold, and productive. (2) From 11.5 to 6.4 ka, hydrology and foraminifers were affected by intensified monsoonal circulation. The enhanced size of Globigerinoides ruber is interpreted as a response to environmental stress caused by low-saline waters. (3) After 6.4 ka, the southward retreat of the ITCZ caused a decrease in freshwater discharge and hence a return to ecological equilibrium. A drop in foraminifer diversity from 2.9 to 1.1 ka was related to more arid conditions, and limited supply of nutrients from the Nile River. We suggest a link to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) marking the Roman Humid Period in the western Mediterranean, and in anti-phase with the southeastern Mediterranean aridity. Because Nile River runoff exerted major control on surface hydrology, a connection to Indian and Pacific climate systems partially controlling precipitation over the Nile catchment area is hypothesized. From 1.1 to 0.54 ka, high foraminifer diversity indicates humid conditions synchronous to the Medieval Climate Anomaly under a positive NAO state. Over the past 0.54 ka encompassing the Little Ice Age, another arid period is indicated by a drop in foraminifer diversity.

Emerging Technologies and Synergies for Airborne and Space-Based Measurements of Water Vapor Profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nehrir, Amin R.; Kiemle, Christoph; Lebsock, Mathew D.; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Buehler, Stefan A.; Löhnert, Ulrich; Liu, Cong-Liang; Hargrave, Peter C.; Barrera-Verdejo, Maria; Winker, David M.

2017-11-01

A deeper understanding of how clouds will respond to a warming climate is one of the outstanding challenges in climate science. Uncertainties in the response of clouds, and particularly shallow clouds, have been identified as the dominant source of the discrepancy in model estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. As the community gains a deeper understanding of the many processes involved, there is a growing appreciation of the critical role played by fluctuations in water vapor and the coupling of water vapor and atmospheric circulations. Reduction of uncertainties in cloud-climate feedbacks and convection initiation as well as improved understanding of processes governing these effects will result from profiling of water vapor in the lower troposphere with improved accuracy and vertical resolution compared to existing airborne and space-based measurements. This paper highlights new technologies and improved measurement approaches for measuring lower tropospheric water vapor and their expected added value to current observations. Those include differential absorption lidar and radar, microwave occultation between low-Earth orbiters, and hyperspectral microwave remote sensing. Each methodology is briefly explained, and measurement capabilities as well as the current technological readiness for aircraft and satellite implementation are specified. Potential synergies between the technologies are discussed, actual examples hereof are given, and future perspectives are explored. Based on technical maturity and the foreseen near-mid-term development path of the various discussed measurement approaches, we find that improved measurements of water vapor throughout the troposphere would greatly benefit from the combination of differential absorption lidar focusing on the lower troposphere with passive remote sensors constraining the upper-tropospheric humidity.

Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia

PubMed Central

Herzschuh, Ulrike; Birks, H. John B.; Laepple, Thomas; Andreev, Andrei; Melles, Martin; Brigham-Grette, Julie

2016-01-01

Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial–interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El'gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we show that interglacial vegetation during the Plio-Pleistocene transition mainly reflects conditions of the preceding glacial instead of contemporary interglacial climate. Vegetation–climate disequilibrium may persist for several millennia, related to the combined effects of permafrost persistence, distant glacial refugia and fire. In contrast, no effects from the preceding interglacial on glacial vegetation are detected. We propose that disequilibrium was stronger during the Plio-Pleistocene transition than during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period when, in addition to climate, herbivory was important. By analogy to the past, we suggest today's widespread larch ecosystem on permafrost is not in climate equilibrium. Vegetation-based reconstructions of interglacial climates used to assess atmospheric CO2–temperature relationships may thus yield misleading simulations of past global climate sensitivity. PMID:27338025

Exploring the Mass Balance and Sea Level Contribution of Global Glaciers During the Last Interglaciation and Mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S.; Ullman, D. J.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior of the world's glaciers during previous interglaciations is key to interpreting the sensitivity and behavior of the cryosphere under scenarios of future anthropogenic warming. Previous studies of the Last Interglaciation (LIG, 130 ka to 116 ka) indicate elevated global temperatures and higher sea levels than the Holocene, but most assessments of the impact on the cryosphere have focused on the mass balance and volume change of polar ice sheets. In assessing sea-level sources, most studies assume complete deglacation of global glaciers, but this has yet to be tested. In addition, the significant changes in orbital forcing during the LIG and the associated impacts on climate seasonality and variability may have led to unique glacier evolution.Here, we explore the effect of LIG climate on the global glacier budget. We employ the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), forced by simulated LIG equilibrium climate anomalies (127 ka) from the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). OGGM is a glacier mass balance and dynamics model, specifically designed to reconstruct global glacier volume change. Our simulations have been conducted in an equilibrium state to determine the effect of the prolonged climate forcing of the LIG. Due to unknown flow characteristics of glaciers during the LIG, we explore the parametric uncertainty in the mass balance and flow sensitivity parameters. As a point of comparison, we also conduct a series of simulations using forcing anomalies from the CCSM3 mid-Holocene (6 ka) experiment. Results from both experiments show that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to these sensitivity parameters, pointing at the need for glacier margin calibration for OGGM in paleoclimate applications.

Sensitivity of glacier mass balance and equilibrium line altitude to climatic change on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, Ulrike; Lopez, Damian; Silva-Busso, Adrian

2017-04-01

The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula which is among the fastest warming regions on Earth. Surface air temperature increases (ca. 3 K in 50 years) are concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K/100 m), and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns especially during winter glacial mass accumulation periods. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the winter time in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain, and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. The impact on winter accumulation results in even more negative mass balance estimates. Six years of glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects are used with a glacier melt model to assess changes in melt water input to the coastal waters, glacier surface mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude. The average equilibrium line altitude (ELA) calculated from own glaciological observations for KGI over the time period 2010 - 2015 amounts to ELA=330±100 m. Published studies suggest rather stable condition slightly negative glacier mass balance until the mid 80's with an ELA of approx. 150 m. The calculated accumulation area ratio suggests rather dramatic changes in extension of the inland ice cap for the South Shetland Islands until an equilibrium with concurrent climate conditions is reached.

Cloud Feedbacks in the Climate System: A Critical Review.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Graeme L.

2005-01-01

This paper offers a critical review of the topic of cloud-climate feedbacks and exposes some of the underlying reasons for the inherent lack of understanding of these feedbacks and why progress might be expected on this important climate problem in the coming decade. Although many processes and related parameters come under the influence of clouds, it is argued that atmospheric processes fundamentally govern the cloud feedbacks via the relationship between the atmospheric circulations, cloudiness, and the radiative and latent heating of the atmosphere. It is also shown how perturbations to the atmospheric radiation budget that are induced by cloud changes in response to climate forcing dictate the eventual response of the global-mean hydrological cycle of the climate model to climate forcing. This suggests that cloud feedbacks are likely to control the bulk precipitation efficiency and associated responses of the planet's hydrological cycle to climate radiative forcings.The paper provides a brief overview of the effects of clouds on the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system and a review of cloud feedbacks as they have been defined in simple systems, one being a system in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) and others relating to simple feedback ideas that regulate tropical SSTs. The systems perspective is reviewed as it has served as the basis for most feedback analyses. What emerges is the importance of being clear about the definition of the system. It is shown how different assumptions about the system produce very different conclusions about the magnitude and sign of feedbacks. Much more diligence is called for in terms of defining the system and justifying assumptions. In principle, there is also neither any theoretical basis to justify the system that defines feedbacks in terms of global-time-mean changes in surface temperature nor is there any compelling empirical evidence to do so. The lack of maturity of feedback analysis methods also suggests that progress in understanding climate feedback will require development of alternative methods of analysis.It has been argued that, in view of the complex nature of the climate system, and the cumbersome problems encountered in diagnosing feedbacks, understanding cloud feedback will be gleaned neither from observations nor proved from simple theoretical argument alone. The blueprint for progress must follow a more arduous path that requires a carefully orchestrated and systematic combination of model and observations. Models provide the tool for diagnosing processes and quantifying feedbacks while observations provide the essential test of the model's credibility in representing these processes. While GCM climate and NWP models represent the most complete description of all the interactions between the processes that presumably establish the main cloud feedbacks, the weak link in the use of these models lies in the cloud parameterization imbedded in them. Aspects of these parameterizations remain worrisome, containing levels of empiricism and assumptions that are hard to evaluate with current global observations. Clearly observationally based methods for evaluating cloud parameterizations are an important element in the road map to progress.Although progress in understanding the cloud feedback problem has been slow and confused by past analysis, there are legitimate reasons outlined in the paper that give hope for real progress in the future.

Simultaneous adsorption of CO2 and H2O under Mars-like conditions and application to the evolution of the Martian climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zent, Aaron P.; Quinn, Richard

1994-01-01

The Martian regolith is the most substantial volatile reservoir on the planet; it holds CO2 as adsorbate, and can exchange that CO2 with the atmosphere-cap system over timescales of 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 6) years. The climatic response to insolation changes caused by obliquity and eccentricity variations depends in part on the total reservoir of adsorbed CO2. Previous estimates of the adsorbate inventory have been made by measuring the adsorptive behavior of one or more Mars-analyog materials, and deriving an empirical equation that described that adsorption as a function of the partial pressure of CO2 and the temperature of the regolith. The current CO2 inventory is that which satisfies adsorptive equilibrium, observed atmospheric pressure, and no permanent CO2 caps. There is laboratory evidence that H2O poisons the CO2 adsorptive capacity of most materials. No consideration of CO2 - H2O co-adsorption was given in previous estimates of the Martian CO2 inventory, although H2O is present in the vapor phase, and so as adsorbate, throughout the regolith.

Special Interests and the Media: Theory and an Application to Climate Change.

PubMed

Shapiro, Jesse M

2016-12-01

A journalist reports to a voter on an unknown, policy-relevant state. Competing special interests can make claims that contradict the facts but seem credible to the voter. A reputational incentive to avoid taking sides leads the journalist to report special interests' claims to the voter. In equilibrium, the voter can remain uninformed even when the journalist is perfectly informed. Communication is improved if the journalist discloses her partisan leanings. The model provides an account of persistent public ignorance on climate change that is consistent with narrative and quantitative evidence.

Chronology for fluctuations in late Pleistocene Sierra Nevada glaciers and lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, F.M.; Zreda, M.G.; Benson, L.V.; Plummer, M.A.; Elmore, D.; Sharma, Prakash

1996-01-01

Mountain glaciers, because of their small size, are usually close to equilibrium with the local climate and thus should provide a test of whether temperature oscillations in Greenland late in the last glacial period are part of global-scale climate variability or are restricted to the North Atlantic region. Correlation of cosmogenic chlorine-36 dates on Sierra Nevada moraines with a continuous radiocarbon-dated sediment record from nearby Owens Lake shows that Sierra Nevada glacial advances were associated with Heinrich events 5, 3, 2, and 1.

Equilibrium time correlation functions and the dynamics of fluctuations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luban, Marshall; Luscombe, James H.

1999-12-01

Equilibrium time correlation functions are of great importance because they probe the equilibrium dynamical response to external perturbations. We discuss the properties of time correlation functions for several systems that are simple enough to illustrate the calculational steps involved. The discussion underscores the need for avoiding language which misleadingly suggests that thermal equilibrium is associated with a quiescent or moribund state of the system. (c) 1999 American Association of Physics Teachers.

Coupling Effect between Equilibrium Field and Heating Field and Modification of the Power Supply System on SUNIST Spherical Tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yexi; Li, Xiaoyan; Gao, Zhe

2005-02-01

Strong inductive coupling between the heating field and equilibrium field is confirmed to be responsible for the poor plasma equilibrium in initial discharges on the SUNIST spherical tokamak. A modification project for the power supply system of equilibrium field coils is successfully performed to increase the duration time of plasma current flattop from much less than 1ms to about 2 ms.

Spatial variability and trends in Younger Dryas equilibrium line altitudes across the European Alps using a hypsometrically based ELA model: results and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeler, D. G.; Rupper, S.; Schaefer, J. M.; Finkel, R. C.; Maurer, J. M.

2016-12-01

Alpine glaciers constitute an important component of terrestrial paleoclimate records due to, among other characteristics, their high sensitivity to climate change, near global extent, and their integration of myriad climate variables into a single, easily detected signal. Because the glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) provides a more explicit representation of climate than many other glacier properties, ELA methods allow for more direct comparisons of multiple glaciers within or between regions. Such comparisons allow for more complete investigations of the ultimate causes of mountain glaciation during specific events. Many studies however tend to focus on a limited number of sites, and employ a large variety of different techniques for ELA reconstruction between studies, making wider climate implications more tenuous. Methods of ELA reconstruction that can be rapidly and consistently applied to an arbitrary number of paleo-glaciers would provide a more accurate portrayal of the changes in climate across a given region. Here we present ELA reconstructions from Egesen Stadial moraines across the European Alps using an ELA model accounting for differences in glacier width, glacier shape, bed topography, ice thickness, and glacier length, including several glaciers constrained to the Younger Dryas using surface exposure dating techniques. We compare reconstructed Younger Dryas ELA values to modern ELA values using the same model, or using end of summer snowline estimates where no glacier is currently present. We further provide uncertainty estimates on the ΔELA using bootstrapped Monte Carlo simulations for the various input parameters. Preliminary results compare favorably to previous glacier studies of the European Younger Dryas, but provide greater context from many glaciers across the region as a whole. Such results allow for a more thorough investigation of the spatial variability and trends in climate during the Younger Dryas across the European Alps, and comparisons of other regions in the future.

Lability of Secondary Organic Particulate Matter

DOE PAGES

Liu, Pengfei; Li, Yong Jie; Wang, Yan; ...

2016-10-24

Accurate simulations of the consenctrations of atmospheric organic particulate matter (PM) are needed for predicting energy flow in the Earth’s climate system. In the past, simulations of organic PM widely assume equilibrium partitioning of semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) between the PM and surrounding vapor. Herein, we test this assumption by measuring evaporation rates and associated vapor mass concentration of organic films representative of atmospheric PM. For films representing anthropogenic PM, evaporation rates and vapor mass concentrations increased above a threshold relative humidity (RH), indicating equilibrium partitioning above a transition RH but not below. In contrast for films representing biogenic PM,more » no threshold was observed, indicating equilibrium partitioning at all RHs. The results suggest that the mass lability of atmospheric organic PM can differ in consequential ways among Earth’s natural biomes, polluted regions, and regions of land-use change, and these differences need to be considered when simulating atmospheric organic PM.« less

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-10-01

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2 doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2 doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high latitudes warm, while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar midtroposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at high latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.

Carbon Climate Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, I.

2009-12-01

The Charney report (22 pages including bibliography and appendices) was written when atmospheric CO2 was 334 ppmv (1979). It estimates a climate sensitivity of 3 +/- 1.5C for a doubling of CO2, and points out the warming delay due to the slow penetration of heat into intermediate depths in the oceans and the decreasing capacity of the oceans to serve a CO2 sink. “We may not be given a warning until the CO2 loading is such that an appreciable climate change is inevitable. The equilibrium warming will eventually occur; it will merely have been postponed.” CO2 exceeded 385 ppmv in 2008, and the warning signs are now abundantly evident. One of the “slow” feedbacks not included in the Charney Report involves the interaction between the land carbon cycle and climate change. The carbon cycle on land is coupled to the water and energy cycles. This paper reviews positive and negative carbon-climate feedbacks associated with changes in the function and distribution of land ecosystems. These feedbacks, once in gear, will magnify climate sensitivity and accelerate global warming.

Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

2017-04-01

Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

Simulating the Regional Impact of Dust on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2018-02-01

The Red Sea is located between North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, the largest sources of dust in the world. Satellite retrievals show very high aerosol optical depth in the region, which increases during the summer season, especially over the southern Red Sea. Previously estimated and validated radiative effect from dust is expected to have a profound thermal and dynamic impact on the Red Sea, but that impact has not yet been studied or evaluated. Due to the strong dust radiative effect at the sea surface, uncoupled ocean modeling approaches with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, to study the impact of dust on the regional climate of the Middle East and the Red Sea, we employed the Regional Ocean Modeling System fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We modified the atmospheric model to account for the radiative effect of dust. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust cools the Red Sea, reduces the surface wind speed, and weakens both the exchange at the Bab-el-Mandeb strait and the overturning circulation. The salinity distribution, freshwater, and heat budgets are significantly altered. A validation of the simulations against satellite products indicates that accounting for radiative effect from dust almost completely removes the bias and reduces errors in the top of the atmosphere fluxes and sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that dust plays an important role in the energy balance, thermal, and circulation regimes in the Red Sea.

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene.

PubMed

Burls, Natalie J; Fedorov, Alexey V; Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H

2017-09-01

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world's largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400-ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.

Evolution of Root Zone Storage after Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijzink, R.; Hutton, C.; Capell, R.; Pechlivanidis, I.; Hrachowitz, M.; Savenije, H.

2015-12-01

It has been acknowledged for some time that a coupling exists between vegetation, climate and hydrological processes (e.g. Eagleson, 1982a, Rodriguez-Iturbe,2001 ). Recently, Gao et al.(2014) demonstrated that one of the core parameters of hydrological functioning, the catchment-scale root zone water storage capacity, can be estimated based on climate data alone. It was shown that ecosystems develop root zone storage capacities that allow vegetation to bridge droughts with return periods of about 20 years. As a consequence, assuming that the evaporative demand determines the root zone storage capacity, land use changes, such as deforestation, should have an effect on the development of this capacity . In this study it was tested to which extent deforestation affects root zone storage capacities. To do so, four different hydrological models were calibrated in a moving window approach after deforestation occurred. In this way, model based estimates of the storage capacity in time were obtained. This was compared with short term estimates of root zone storage capacities based on a climate based method similar to Gao et al.(2014). In addition, the equilibrium root zone storage capacity was determined with the total time series of an unaffected control catchment. Preliminary results indicate that models tend to adjust their storage capacity to the values found by the climate based method. This is strong evidence that the root zone storage is determined by the evaporative demand of vegetation. Besides, root zones storage capacities develop towards an equilibrium value where the ecosystem is in balance, further highlighting the evolving, time dynamic character of hydrological systems.

The transient response of ice-shelf melting to ocean change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, P.

2017-12-01

Idealised modelling studies show that the melting of ice shelves varies as a quadratic function of ocean temperature. This means that warm-water ice shelves have higher melt rates and are also more sensitive to ocean warming. However, this result is the equilibrium response, derived from a set of ice—ocean simulations subjected to a fixed ocean forcing and run until steady. This study considers instead the transient response of melting, using unsteady simulations subjected to forcing conditions that are oscillated in time with a range of periods. The results show that when the ocean forcing is varied slowly, the melt rates follow the equililbrium response. However, for rapid ocean change melting deviates from the equilibrium response in interesting ways. The residence time of water in the sub-ice cavity offers a critical timescale. When the forcing varies slowly (period of oscillation >> residence time), the cavity is fully-flushed with forcing anomalies at all stages of the cycle and melting follows the equilibrium response. When the forcing varies rapidly (period ≤ residence time), multiple cold and warm anomalies coexist in the cavity, cancelling each other in the spatial mean and thus inducing a relatively steady melt rate. This implies that all ice shelves have a maximum frequency of ocean variability that can be manifested in melting. The results also show that ice shelves forced by warm water have high melt rates, high equilibrium sensitivity, and short residence times, hence a short timescale over which the equilibrium sensitivity is manifest. The most rapid melting adjustment is induced by warm anomalies that are also saline. Thus, ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, Antarctica, are highly sensitive to ocean change.

Response to Contradiction: Conflict Resolution Strategies Used by Students in Solving Problems of Chemical Equilibrium.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niaz, Mansoor

2001-01-01

Illustrates how a novel problem of chemical equilibrium based on a closely related sequence of items can facilitate students' conceptual understanding. Students were presented with a chemical reaction in equilibrium to which a reactant was added as an external effect. Three studies were conducted to assess alternative conceptions. (Author/SAH)

Effects of Equilibrium Toroidal Flow on Locked Mode and Plasma Response in a Tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Ping; Huang, Wenlong; Yan, Xingting

2016-10-01

It is widely believed that plasma flow plays significant roles in regulating the processes of mode locking and plasma response in a tokamak in presence of external resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs). Recently a common analytic relation for both locked mode and plasma response has been developed based on the steady-state solution to the coupled dynamic system of magnetic island evolution and torque balance. The analytic relation predicts the size of the magnetic island of a locked mode or a static nonlinear plasma response for a given RMP amplitude, and rigorously proves a screening effect of the equilibrium toroidal flow. To test the theory, we solve for the locked mode and the nonlinear plasma response in presence of RMP for a circular-shaped limiter tokamak equilibrium with constant toroidal flow, using the initial-value, full MHD simulation code NIMROD. The comparison between the simulation results and the theory prediction, in terms of the quantitative screening effects of equilibrium toroidal flow, will be reported and discussed. Supported by National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Science Program of China Grants 2014GB124002 and 2015GB101004, the 100 Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and U.S. Department of Energy Grants DE-FG02-86ER53218 and DE-FC02-08ER54975.

Immunodominance: a new hypothesis to explain parasite escape and host/parasite equilibrium leading to the chronic phase of Chagas' disease?

PubMed

Rodrigues, M M; Alencar, B C G de; Claser, C; Tzelepis, F

2009-03-01

Intense immune responses are observed during human or experimental infection with the digenetic protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi. The reasons why such immune responses are unable to completely eliminate the parasites are unknown. The survival of the parasite leads to a parasite-host equilibrium found during the chronic phase of chagasic infection in most individuals. Parasite persistence is recognized as the most likely cause of the chagasic chronic pathologies. Therefore, a key question in Chagas' disease is to understand how this equilibrium is established and maintained for a long period. Understanding the basis for this equilibrium may lead to new approaches to interventions that could help millions of individuals at risk for infection or who are already infected with T. cruzi. Here, we propose that the phenomenon of immunodominance may be significant in terms of regulating the host-parasite equilibrium observed in Chagas' disease. T. cruzi infection restricts the repertoire of specific T cells generating, in some cases, an intense immunodominant phenotype and in others causing a dramatic interference in the response to distinct epitopes. This immune response is sufficiently strong to maintain the host alive during the acute phase carrying them to the chronic phase where transmission usually occurs. At the same time, immunodominance interferes with the development of a higher and broader immune response that could be able to completely eliminate the parasite. Based on this, we discuss how we can interfere with or take advantage of immunodominance in order to provide an immunotherapeutic alternative for chagasic individuals.

Extrapolation to Nonequilibrium from Coarse-Grained Response Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Urna; Helden, Laurent; Krüger, Matthias

2018-05-01

Nonlinear response theory, in contrast to linear cases, involves (dynamical) details, and this makes application to many-body systems challenging. From the microscopic starting point we obtain an exact response theory for a small number of coarse-grained degrees of freedom. With it, an extrapolation scheme uses near-equilibrium measurements to predict far-from-equilibrium properties (here, second order responses). Because it does not involve system details, this approach can be applied to many-body systems. It is illustrated in a four-state model and in the near critical Ising model.

Stability of Mixed-Strategy-Based Iterative Logit Quantal Response Dynamics in Game Theory

PubMed Central

Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan

2014-01-01

Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502

Tightly Coupled Mechanistic Study of Materials in the Extreme Space Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-11

to examine spacecraft contamination issues from the perspective of non- equilibrium gas dynamics (Levin), material response at the atomistic level...Space Environment Group has worked to examine spacecraft contamination issues from the perspective of non- equilibrium gas dynamics (Levin...material response at the atomistic level (Rajan), high fidelity gas -surface chemistry models (van Duin), and experiments to characterize and test

Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales

PubMed Central

Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.

2013-01-01

On 103- to 106-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2 in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely” (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times. PMID:23292932

Erosional Reduction of an Orogenic Wedge: Structural Response to Neogene Climate Change within the St. Elias Orogen, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, A. L.; Spotila, J. A.; Chapman, J. B.; Pavlis, T. L.; Enkelmann, E.; Buscher, J. T.

2007-12-01

The kinematics and architecture of orogenic systems may be heavily influenced by climate, but little research has focused on the long term effects of glacial erosion on orogenesis. Apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometry on >75 bedrock samples across the St. Elias orogen, one of the best examples of a glaciated orogenic wedge, is the basis for a new kinematic model and demonstrates an association between glacial denudation and orogenic architecture. The spatial pattern of low temperature cooling indicates that exhumation and deformation are focused within a thin-skinned fold and thrust belt on the windward flank, whereas the leeward flank of the orogen functions as a deformational backstop. A previously unrecognized structure beneath the Bagley ice field must separate these domains with south-side-up motion. We propose this structure is a backthrust making the orogen doubly-vergent. Suggestive of accelerated backthrust motion in response to climate change, cooling rates within the hanging wall block and across the entire windward flank of the orogen accelerated ten-fold coeval with enhanced glaciation. As backthrust motion increased, glacial unroofing also coincided with a regional shift in deformation away from prominent forethrusts including the North American-Yakutat terrane suture (Chugach St. Elias fault) and the seaward deformation front (Pamplona zone). Across the windward flank of the orogen, exhumation, at rates of up to 5 mm/yr, is focused within a narrow zone, where the glacial equilibrium line altitude (ELA) intersects the orogenic wedge. This zone of rapid exhumation, not present prior to the onset of enhanced glaciation, cuts across the structural trend of the orogen and is more narrowly focused than orographic precipitation. Accelerated denudation at the ELA thus appears to have redistributed strain along a series of forethrusts that lie at the zone of heaviest glacial flux, while the backthrust progressively truncates the southward-vergent forethrusts. In a cause and effect response, the expansion of glaciers therefore appears to have resulted in a narrowing of the orogenic wedge due to increased backthrust motion and a landward propagation of deformation in order to preserve topographic slope. This focusing of long- term glacial erosion and deformation at the ELA matches predictions from analytical models of orogenic wedges (i.e. Tomkin and Braun, 2002) and implies a high degree of coupling between climate and tectonics in this glacially-dominated orogen.

A Tale of Two Limpets (Patella vulgata and Patella stellaeformis): Evaluating a New Proxy for Late Holocene Climate Change in Coastal Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenger, T. L.; Surge, D. M.; Schoene, B. R.; Carter, J. G.; Milner, N.

2006-12-01

Shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, from Late Holocene archaeological deposits potentially contain critical information about climate change in coastal areas. Before deciphering climate information preserved in these zooarchaeological records, we studied the controls on oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) in modern specimens. We tested the hypothesis that P. vulgata precipitates its shell in isotopic equilibrium with ambient water by comparing δ18OSHELL with expected values. Expected δ18OSHELL was constructed using the calcite-water fractionation equation, observed sea surface temperature (SST), and assuming δ18OWATER is +0.10‰ (VSMOW). Comparison between expected and measured δ18OSHELL revealed a +1.51±0.21‰ (VPDB) offset from expected values. Consequently, estimated SST calculated from δ18OSHELL was 6.50±2.45°C lower than observed SST. However, because the offset was relatively uniform, an adjustment can be made to account for this predictable vital effect and past SST can be reliably reconstructed. To further investigate the source of offset in this genus, we analyzed a fully marine tropical species (Patella stellaeformis) to minimize seasonal variation in environmental factors that influence δ18OSHELL. P. stellaeformis was evaluated to determine whether it has a similar offset from equilibrium as P. vulgata. We tested the hypotheses that: (1) δ18OSHELL in tropical species also displays vital effects; and (2) the offset from equilibrium (if any) would be constant and predictable. Our results indicated: (1) aragonite comprises most of P. stellaeformis' shell; and (2) δ18OSHELL is statistically indistinguishable from expected values calculated using the aragonite-water fractionation equation (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic=0.61, D0.05[56, 57]=1.36) in contrast with our observations in P. vulgata. Differences in mineralogy or growth rates at different latitudes may play a role in mechanisms that influence vital effects.

Glaciers in Equilibrium - Results from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountain, A. G.; Nylen, T. H.; Doran, P. T.

2004-12-01

Since 1993 the mass balance of two glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica (163° E 77.5° S) has been measured. The magnitude of annual mass gain or loss does not exceed 10 cm water equivalent averaged over each glacier, consistent with the local climate of a polar desert. The overall trend in mass balance shows that the glaciers are in approximate balance with the current climate and no obvious trends exist in either the winter or summer balances. These are similar to a set of mass balance measurements made in another part of the dry valleys during the 1970s (Chinn, 1985). Recent analysis of the climate of the dry valleys shows this region is cooling at a rate of 0.7° C per decade during this period since 1986, which is reflected in the overall lowering of lake levels, decreased primary productivity of the lakes, and declining number of invertebrates (Doran et al., 2002). Although an unusually warm period occurred in the summer of 2001-2002, annual temperatures continue to cool. This region seems to be isolated from the warming elsewhere in Antarctica and the cooling in this part of the Ross Sea region may be due to El Nino forcing (Bertler et al, 2004). The sluggish behavior of the glaciers results from a low mass exchange and an apparent climatic buffering, which supports evidence from the geologic record that these glaciers have not advanced more than a few hundred meters over the past 3 million years (Hall et al., 1993). Many of the glaciers, however, are advancing which probably results from a slow time-scale response from warming conditions in the past millennium.

Economic Impacts from PM2.5 Pollution-Related Health Effects: A Case Study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Wu, Rui; Dai, Hancheng; Geng, Yong; Xie, Yang; Masui, Toshihiko; Liu, Zhiqing; Qian, Yiying

2017-05-02

PM 2.5 pollution-related diseases cause additional medical expenses and work time loss, leading to macroeconomic impact in high PM 2.5 concentration areas. Previous economic impact assessments of air pollution focused on benefits from environmental regulations while ignoring climate policies. In this study, we examine the health and economic impacts from PM 2.5 pollution under various air pollution control strategies and climate policies scenarios in the megacity of Shanghai. The estimation adopts an integrated model combining a Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, exposure-response functions (ERFs), and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that without control measures, Shanghai's mortality caused by PM 2.5 pollution are estimated to be 192 400 cases in 2030 and the work time loss to be 72.1 h/cap annually. The corresponding GDP values and welfare losses would be approximately 2.26% and 3.14%, respectively. With an estimated control cost of 0.76% of local GDP, Shanghai would gain approximately 1.01% of local GDP through local air pollution control measures and climate policies. Furthermore, the application of multiregional integrated control strategies in neighboring provinces would be the most effective in reducing PM 2.5 concentration in Shanghai, leading to only 0.34% of GDP loss. At the sectoral level, labor-intensive sectors suffer more output loss from PM 2.5 pollution. Sectors with the highest control costs include power generation, iron and steel, and transport. The results indicate that the combination of multiregional integrated air pollution control strategies and climate policies would be cost-beneficial for Shanghai.

The evolution of pCO2, ice volume and climate during the middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Gavin L.; Lear, Caroline H.; Rae, James W. B.

2012-08-01

The middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (17-15 Ma; MCO) is a period of global warmth and relatively high CO2 and is thought to be associated with a significant retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). We present here a new planktic foraminiferal δ11B record from 16.6 to 11.8 Ma from two deep ocean sites currently in equilibrium with the atmosphere with respect to CO2. These new data demonstrate that the evolution of global climate during the middle Miocene (as reflected by changes in the cyrosphere) was well correlated to variations in the concentration of atmospheric CO2. What is more, within our sampling resolution (∼1 sample per 300 kyr) there is no evidence of hysteresis in the response of ice volume to CO2 forcing during the middle Miocene, contrary to what is understood about the Antarctic Ice Sheet from ice sheet modelling studies. In agreement with previous data, we show that absolute levels of CO2 during the MCO were relatively modest (350-400 ppm) and levels either side of the MCO are similar or lower than the pre-industrial (200-260 ppm). These new data imply the presence of either a very dynamic AIS at relatively low CO2 during the middle Miocene or the advance and retreat of significant northern hemisphere ice. Recent drilling on the Antarctic margin and shore based studies indicate significant retreat and advance beyond the modern limits of the AIS did occur during the middle Miocene, but the complete loss of the AIS was unlikely. Consequently, it seems that ice volume and climate variations during the middle Miocene probably involved a more dynamic AIS than the modern but also some component of land-based ice in the northern hemisphere.

Eocene climate and Arctic paleobathymetry: A tectonic sensitivity study using GISS ModelE-R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

2009-12-01

The early Paleogene (65-45 million years ago, Ma) was a ‘greenhouse’ interval with global temperatures warmer than any other time in the last 65 Ma. This period was characterized by high levels of CO2, warm high-latitudes, warm surface-and-deep oceans, and an intensified hydrological cycle. Sediments from the Arctic suggest that the Eocene surface Arctic Ocean was warm, brackish, and episodically enabled the freshwater fern Azolla to bloom. The precise mechanisms responsible for the development of these conditions remain uncertain. We present equilibrium climate conditions derived from a fully-coupled, water-isotope enabled, general circulation model (GISS ModelE-R) configured for the early Eocene. We also present model-data comparison plots for key climatic variables (SST and δ18O) and analyses of the leading modes of variability in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Our tectonic sensitivity study indicates that Northern Hemisphere climate would have been very sensitive to the degree of oceanic exchange through the seaways connecting the Arctic to the Atlantic and Tethys. By restricting these seaways, we simulate freshening of the surface Arctic Ocean to ~6 psu and warming of sea-surface temperatures by 2°C in the North Atlantic and 5-10°C in the Labrador Sea. Our results may help explain the occurrence of low-salinity tolerant taxa in the Arctic Ocean during the Eocene and provide a mechanism for enhanced warmth in the north western Atlantic. We also suggest that the formation of a volcanic land-bridge between Greenland and Europe could have caused increased ocean convection and warming of intermediate waters in the Atlantic. If true, this result is consistent with the theory that bathymetry changes may have caused thermal destabilisation of methane clathrates in the Atlantic.

Recent evolution and mass balance of Cordón Martial glaciers, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strelin, Jorge; Iturraspe, Rodolfo

2007-10-01

Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal ("internal") moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 14C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 10 6 m 3 of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 10 6 m 3 w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.

A minimalist probabilistic description of root zone soil water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

2001-01-01

The probabilistic response of depth‐integrated soil water to given climatic forcing can be described readily using an existing supply‐demand‐storage model. An apparently complex interaction of numerous soil, climate, and plant controls can be reduced to a relatively simple expression for the equilibrium probability density function of soil water as a function of only two dimensionless parameters. These are the index of dryness (ratio of mean potential evaporation to mean precipitation) and a dimensionless storage capacity (active root zone soil water capacity divided by mean storm depth). The first parameter is mainly controlled by climate, with surface albedo playing a subsidiary role in determining net radiation. The second is a composite of soil (through moisture retention characteristics), vegetation (through rooting characteristics), and climate (mean storm depth). This minimalist analysis captures many essential features of a more general probabilistic analysis, but with a considerable reduction in complexity and consequent elucidation of the critical controls on soil water variability. In particular, it is shown that (1) the dependence of mean soil water on the index of dryness approaches a step function in the limit of large soil water capacity; (2) soil water variance is usually maximized when the index of dryness equals 1, and the width of the peak varies inversely with dimensionless storage capacity; (3) soil water has a uniform probability density function when the index of dryness is 1 and the dimensionless storage capacity is large; and (4) the soil water probability density function is bimodal if and only if the index of dryness is <1, but this bimodality is pronounced only for artificially small values of the dimensionless storage capacity.

Simulated and Inferred LAI, NPP, and Biomes in North America Since the Last Glacial Maximum.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zajac, L. M.; Williams, J. W.; Kaplan, J.

2004-12-01

Vegetation structure and productivity are sensitive to climate change and are an important source of feedbacks to the climate system. Here we employ multiple lines of evidence to reconstruct variations in leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity (NPP), and biomes. LAI determines the total canopy surface area available for light interception, gas exchange, and water loss, and NPP, the increase in plant carbon per unit area, measures the flux of carbon into the terrestrial biosphere. BIOME4, an equilibrium biogeography and biogeochemistry vegetation model, is used to simulate LAI, NPP, and biome distributions in North America for the past 21,000 years at 1,000-year time-steps. BIOME4 was coupled asynchronously to the Hadley Center Unified Model with a mixed-layer ocean model forced by variations in orbital boundary conditions, physiography, and atmospheric CO2 concentration (Kaplan et al. 2002). BIOME4 models LAI as a trade-off between maximizing light interception and minimizing water loss and assigns the LAI that maximizes NPP. Past LAI's and biomes, independently estimated from fossil pollen assemblages using the modern analogue technique, are compared to model results. In unglaciated eastern North America, canopy closure of the full-glacial conifer forests and woodlands in response to ameliorating climatic conditions resulted in a 80% increase in LAI's between 21 ka and 11 ka. After 8 ka, large areas of tundra and forest-tundra developed in deglaciated regions. The BIOME4 simulations show good agreement with the LAI's and biome distribution inferred from fossil pollen records. Sensitivity analyses with BIOME4 indicate that both climate and CO2 played important roles in regulating vegetation structure and productivity.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-01-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-02-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Climate change and game theory.

PubMed

Wood, Peter John

2011-02-01

This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO 2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming: OCEAN HEAT AND POLAR WARMING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2-doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2-doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high-latitudes warm while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar mid-troposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at highmore » latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.« less

Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sue Wing, I.; Stern, A.

2014-12-01

As contributors to the US EPA's Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment (CIRA) project, we present empirically-based projections of climate change impacts on the yields of five major US crops. Our analysis uses a 15-member ensemble of climate simulations using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) linked to the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), forced by 3 emissions scenarios (a "business as usual" reference scenario and two stabilization scenarios at 4.5W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100), quantify the agricultural impacts avoided due to greenhouse gas emission reductions. Our innovation is the coupling of climate model outputs with empirical estimates of the long-run relationship between crop yields and temperature, precipitation and soil moisture derived from the co-variation between yields and weather across US counties over the last 50 years. Our identifying assumption is that since farmers' planting, management and harvesting decisions are based on land quality and expectations of weather, yields and meteorological variables share a long-run equilibrium relationship. In any given year, weather shocks cause yields to diverge from their expected long-run values, prompting farmers to revise their long-run expectations. We specify a dynamic panel error correction model (ECM) that statistically distinguishes these two processes. The ECM is estimated for maize, wheat, soybeans, sorghum and cotton using longitudinal data on production and harvested area for ~1,100 counties from 1948-2010, in conjunction with spatial fields of 3-hourly temperature, precipitation and soil moisture from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) forcing and output files, binned into annual counts of exposure over the growing season and mapped to county centroids. For scenarios of future warming the identical method was used to calculate counties' current (1986-2010) and future (2036-65 and 2086-2110) distributions of simulated 3-hourly growing season temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. Finally, we combine these variables with the fitted long-run response to obtain county-level yields under current average climate and projected future climate under our three warming scenarios. We close our presentation with a discussion of the implications for mitigation and adaptation decisions.

A juvenile-adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects.

PubMed

Veprauskas, Amy; Cushing, J M

2017-03-01

We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial-nesting gulls, specifically the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile-adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co-dimension bifurcation at [Formula: see text] which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non-cannibalistic population cannot.

Multi-millennia simulation of Greenland deglaciation from the Max-Plank-Institute Model (MPI-ISM) 2xCO2 simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabot, Vincent; Vizcaino, Miren; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2016-04-01

Long-term ice sheet and climate coupled simulations are of great interest since they assess how the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) will respond to global warming and how GrIS changes will impact on the climate system. We have run the Max-Plank-Institute Earth System Model coupled with an Ice Sheet Model (SICOPOLIS) over a time period of 10500 years under two times CO2 forcing. This is a coupled atmosphere (ECHAM5T31), ocean (MPI-OM), dynamic vegetation (LPJ), and ice sheet (SICOPOLIS, 10 km horizontal resolution) model. Given the multi-millennia simulation, the horizontal spatial resolution of the atmospheric component is relatively coarse (3.75°). A time-saving technique (asynchronous coupling) is used once the global climate reaches quasi-equilibrium. In our doubling-CO2 simulation, the GrIS is expected to break up into two pieces (one ice cap in the far north on one ice sheet in the south and east) after 3000 years. During the first 500 simulation years, the GrIS climate and surface mass balance (SMB) are mainly affected by the greenhouse effect-forced climate change. After the simulated year 500, the global climate reaches quasi-equilibrium. Henceforth Greenland climate change is mainly due to ice sheet decay. GrIS albedo reduction enhances melt and acts as a powerful feedback for deglaciation. Due to increased cloudiness in the Arctic region as a result of global climate change, summer incoming shortwave radiation is substantially reduced over Greenland, reducing deglaciation rates. At the end of the simulation, Greenland becomes green with forest growing over the newly deglaciated regions. References: Helsen, M. M., van de Berg, W. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., van den Broeke, M. R., and Oerlemans, J. (2013), Coupled regional climate-ice-sheet simulation shows limited Greenland ice loss during the Eemian, Climate of the Past, 9, 1773-1788, doi: 10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013 Helsen, M. M., van de Wal, R. S. W., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Berg, W. J., and Oerlemans, J. (2015), Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by the surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 6, 255-272, doi: 10.5194/tc-6-255-2012 Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A. (2011), Greenland ice sheet model parameters constrained using simulations of the Eemian Interglacial, Climate of the Past, 7, 381-396, doi: 10.5194/cp-7-381-2011 Vizcaino, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., Rodehacke, C. B., Greve, R., and van den Broeke, M. R. (2015), Coupled simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and climate change up to A.D. 2300, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061142

Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

2016-10-01

In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

Balance Mass Flux and Velocity Across the Equilibrium Line in Ice Drainage Systems of Greenland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Estimates of balance mass flux and the depth-averaged ice velocity through the cross-section aligned with the equilibrium line are produced for each of six drainage systems in Greenland. (The equilibrium line, which lies at approximately 1200 m elevation on the ice sheet, is the boundary between the area of net snow accumulation at higher elevations and the areas of net melting at lower elevations around the ice sheet.) Ice drainage divides and six major drainage systems are delineated using surface topography from ERS (European Remote Sensing) radar altimeter data. The net accumulation rate in the accumulation zone bounded by the equilibrium line is 399 Gt/yr and net ablation rate in the remaining area is 231 Gt/yr. (1 GigaTon of ice is 1090 kM(exp 3). The mean balance mass flux and depth-averaged ice velocity at the cross-section aligned with the modeled equilibrium line are 0.1011 Gt kM(exp -2)/yr and 0.111 km/yr, respectively, with little variation in these values from system to system. The ratio of the ice mass above the equilibrium line to the rate of mass output implies an effective exchange time of approximately 6000 years for total mass exchange. The range of exchange times, from a low of 3 ka in the SE drainage system to 14 ka in the NE, suggests a rank as to which regions of the ice sheet may respond more rapidly to climate fluctuations.

Modeled Impact of Cirrus Cloud Increases Along Aircraft Flight Paths

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David; Lonergan, P.; Shah, K.

1999-01-01

The potential impact of contrails and alterations in the lifetime of background cirrus due to subsonic airplane water and aerosol emissions has been investigated in a set of experiments using the GISS GCM connected to a q-flux ocean. Cirrus clouds at a height of 12-15km, with an optical thickness of 0.33, were input to the model "x" percentage of clear-sky occasions along subsonic aircraft flight paths, where x is varied from .05% to 6%. Two types of experiments were performed: one with the percentage cirrus cloud increase independent of flight density, as long as a certain minimum density was exceeded; the other with the percentage related to the density of fuel expenditure. The overall climate impact was similar with the two approaches, due to the feedbacks of the climate system. Fifty years were run for eight such experiments, with the following conclusions based on the stable results from years 30-50 for each. The experiments show that adding cirrus to the upper troposphere results in a stabilization of the atmosphere, which leads to some decrease in cloud cover at levels below the insertion altitude. Considering then the total effect on upper level cloud cover (above 5 km altitude), the equilibrium global mean temperature response shows that altering high level clouds by 1% changes the global mean temperature by 0.43C. The response is highly linear (linear correlation coefficient of 0.996) for high cloud cover changes between 0. 1% and 5%. The effect is amplified in the Northern Hemisphere, more so with greater cloud cover change. The temperature effect maximizes around 10 km (at greater than 40C warming with a 4.8% increase in upper level clouds), again more so with greater warming. The high cloud cover change shows the flight path influence most clearly with the smallest warming magnitudes; with greater warming, the model feedbacks introduce a strong tropical response. Similarly, the surface temperature response is dominated by the feedbacks, and shows little geographical relationship to the high cloud input. Considering whether these effects would be observable, changing upper level cloud cover by as little as 0.4% produces warming greater than 2 standard deviations in the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channels 4, 2 and 2r, in flight path regions and in the subtropics. Despite the simplified nature of these experiments, the results emphasize the sensitivity of the modeled climate to high level cloud cover changes, and thus the potential ability of aircraft to influence climate by altering clouds in the upper troposphere.

Climatic impact of glacial cycle polar motion: Coupled oscillations of ice sheet mass and rotation pole position

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bills, Bruce G.; James, Thomas S.; Mengel, John G.

1999-01-01

Precessional motion of Earth's rotation axis relative to its orbit is a well-known source of long-period climatic variation. It is less well appreciated that growth and decay of polar ice sheets perturb the symmetry of the global mass distribution enough that the geographic location of the rotation axis will change by at least 15 km and possibly as much as 100 km during a single glacial cycle. This motion of the pole will change the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of temperatures. We present calculations, based on a diurnal average energy balance, which compare the summer and winter temperature anomalies due to a 1° decrease in obliquity with those due to a 1° motion of the rotation pole toward Hudson Bay. Both effects result in peak temperature perturbations of about 1° Celsius. The obliquity change primarily influences the amplitude of the seasonal cycle, while the polar motion primarily changes the annual mean temperatures. The polar motion induced temperature anomaly is such that it will act as a powerful negative feedback on ice sheet growth. We also explore the evolution of the coupled system composed of ice sheet mass and pole position. Oscillatory solutions result from the conflicting constraints of rotational and thermal stability. A positive mass anomaly on an otherwise featureless Earth is in rotational equilibrium only at the poles or the equator. The two polar equilibria are rotationally unstable, and the equatorial equilibrium, though rotationally stable, is thermally unstable. We find that with a plausible choice for the strength of coupling between the thermal and rotational systems, relatively modest external forcing can produce significant response at periods of 104–106 years, but it strongly attenuates polar motion at longer periods. We suggest that these coupled oscillations may contribute to the observed dominance of 100 kyr glacial cycles since the mid-Pleistocene and will tend to stabilize geographic patterns that are suitable to glaciations.

Setting Climate Mitigation Targets in the Face of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raupach, M. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty in climate science is well known, and at least some of it may be irreducible. However, the presence of uncertainty increases the urgency of action rather than reducing it. For the purpose of setting climate targets, earth system models can be construed as giant transfer functions mapping anthropogenic forcings to climate responses. Recent work [Allen et al. 2009, Nature 458, and related papers] has shown that the broad structure of this mapping is captured by a near-linear relationship T = αQ between cumulative CO2 emissions (Q) and global warming (T), both measured from the start of the industrial era. The slope α is about 1.8 K/EgC (67% probability range 1.2 to 2.7), or 1.8 degrees per trillion tonnes of carbon, both for the recent past and also for future projections. Near-linearity occurs because of compensating interactions between CO2 emissions trajectories, emissions of non-CO2 gases, and nonlinear carbon-climate dynamics. The implication is that a all-time quota of about 1100 PgC of carbon can be emitted before T =2 K warming is exceeded, with median (50%) probability. Half of this quota (550 PgC) has been emitted already through the industrial era (since 1750). Accounting for the need to turn around the present growth in emissions, the eventual decline in emissions to meet a target T =2 K has to be at more than 5% per year if mitigation starts immediately [Raupach et al. 2011, Tellus B 63]. With delay, the required rate of decline rapidly rises further. A 50% chance of meeting a target T =2 K is inadequate, because of paleoclimatic evidence for destabilising climate feedbacks in response to small changes in forcing. This evidence calls for either or both of two responses: a tougher target such as T = 1 K, or a higher chance of meeting the target. It is shown here that (1) the cumulative probability distribution of T at given Q is approximately log-normal; and (2) consequently, the cumulative emission Q needed to stay below a warming T with probability P is Q = (T/α)[1 - sqrt(2π)(ln r)(P - ½)], where r is a spread parameter such that 2/3 of the probability mass lies within a factor (1/r, r) of the median. Current uncertainty estimates for the equilibrium climate sensitivity (a best estimate of 3 K per CO2 doubling about a 2/3 probability range of 2 to 4.5 K) are consistent with r = 1.5. With this uncertainty, if P is increased from 50% (median) to 80%, then the all-time Q falls from 1100 to 770 PgC, or 220 PgC from 2012 onward (20 years worth of emissions at current rates). Implications are: (1) as the uncertainty (r) increases with all else fixed, the quota falls; (2) the combination of a warming target T < 2 K with high chance of success is now unreachable. At least for a minimal climate target like T = 2 K with 50% chance of success, the mitigation challenge is still technically possible. However, climate futures will be shaped not only by technology but also by inner human narratives, mental maps and aspirations, including attitudes to risk. The transformation that is needed to meet the climate challenge depends not only on technologies but also on the evolution of self-sustaining narratives.

A bargaining game analysis of international climate negotiations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smead, Rory; Sandler, Ronald L.; Forber, Patrick; Basl, John

2014-06-01

Climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have so far failed to achieve a robust international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Game theory has been used to investigate possible climate negotiation solutions and strategies for accomplishing them. Negotiations have been primarily modelled as public goods games such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, though coordination games or games of conflict have also been used. Many of these models have solutions, in the form of equilibria, corresponding to possible positive outcomes--that is, agreements with the requisite emissions reduction commitments. Other work on large-scale social dilemmas suggests that it should be possible to resolve the climate problem. It therefore seems that equilibrium selection may be a barrier to successful negotiations. Here we use an N-player bargaining game in an agent-based model with learning dynamics to examine the past failures of and future prospects for a robust international climate agreement. The model suggests reasons why the desirable solutions identified in previous game-theoretic models have not yet been accomplished in practice and what mechanisms might be used to achieve these solutions.

Imaging the equilibrium state and magnetization dynamics of partially built hard disk write heads

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valkass, R. A. J., E-mail: rajv202@ex.ac.uk; Yu, W.; Shelford, L. R.

Four different designs of partially built hard disk write heads with a yoke comprising four repeats of NiFe (1 nm)/CoFe (50 nm) were studied by both x-ray photoemission electron microscopy (XPEEM) and time-resolved scanning Kerr microscopy (TRSKM). These techniques were used to investigate the static equilibrium domain configuration and the magnetodynamic response across the entire structure, respectively. Simulations and previous TRSKM studies have made proposals for the equilibrium domain configuration of similar structures, but no direct observation of the equilibrium state of the writers has yet been made. In this study, static XPEEM images of the equilibrium state of writer structures weremore » acquired using x-ray magnetic circular dichroism as the contrast mechanism. These images suggest that the crystalline anisotropy dominates the equilibrium state domain configuration, but competition with shape anisotropy ultimately determines the stability of the equilibrium state. Dynamic TRSKM images were acquired from nominally identical devices. These images suggest that a longer confluence region may hinder flux conduction from the yoke into the pole tip: the shorter confluence region exhibits clear flux beaming along the symmetry axis, whereas the longer confluence region causes flux to conduct along one edge of the writer. The observed variations in dynamic response agree well with the differences in the equilibrium magnetization configuration visible in the XPEEM images, confirming that minor variations in the geometric design of the writer structure can have significant effects on the process of flux beaming.« less

Scaling of the entropy budget with surface temperature in radiative-convective equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Martin S.; O'Gorman, Paul A.

2016-09-01

The entropy budget of the atmosphere is examined in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with a cloud-system resolving model over a wide range of surface temperatures from 281 to 311 K. Irreversible phase changes and the diffusion of water vapor account for more than half of the irreversible entropy production within the atmosphere, even in the coldest simulation. As the surface temperature is increased, the atmospheric radiative cooling rate increases, driving a greater entropy sink that must be matched by greater irreversible entropy production. The entropy production resulting from irreversible moist processes increases at a similar fractional rate as the entropy sink and at a lower rate than that implied by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This allows the entropy production from frictional drag on hydrometeors and on the atmospheric flow to also increase with warming, in contrast to recent results for simulations with global climate models in which the work output decreases with warming. A set of approximate scaling relations is introduced for the terms in the entropy budget as the surface temperature is varied, and many of the terms are found to scale with the mean surface precipitation rate. The entropy budget provides some insight into changes in frictional dissipation in response to warming or changes in model resolution, but it is argued that frictional dissipation is not closely linked to other measures of convective vigor.

Reconstruction and paleoclimatic significance of Late Pleistocene niche glaciation at Mt Aston, Tararua Range, North Island, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brook, Martin

2017-04-01

Evidence for the timing of inter-hemispheric climate fluctuations during the Pleistocene is important, with reconstructed mountain glacier extents routinely used as a proxy for climate. While valley glaciers extended out from an ice sheet centred on New Zealand's Southern Alps during Pleistocene climate cooling to below present-day sea level, evidence of former glacial activity on the North Island of New Zealand is rare, in comparison. A newly-identified glaciated site is Mt Aston, an isolated cirque-like basin within the Tararua Range on New Zealand's North Island. Previously published cosmogenic isotope ages and paleo-glacier reconstructions of a 3 km-long valley glacier 30 km to the north show that paleo-equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) increased northwards across New Zealand during the regional last glacial maximum (LGM). Hence, at this latitude (41˚ 00' S), only topography >1300 m above present day sea-level was of feasible elevation to intersect the prevailing south-westerly airflow and to allow niche glaciers to form. In the basin below Mt Aston, a c. 0.38 km2 cirque glacier existed with ELA of c. 1290 ± 10 m above present-day sea level. This paleo-ELA closely approximates the extrapolated ELA trend surface for the regional LGM. The mean glacier thickness of 35 m gives a maximum basal shear stress of c. 102 kPa-1, with a mean January temperature at the ELA of c. 5.5 ˚ C. It is well-established that present-day glaciers in New Zealand are particularly sensitive to climate change, manifested by glacial advances and retreats in response to simple mass balance dynamics. Consistent with this, the paleo-glacier reconstruction implies that rather than simple temperature decreases driving paleo-ELA depression, changes in south-westerly airflow over New Zealand, bringing moisture-laden but cool air, maximized snowfall and minimised winter melt. The corollary is that (1) patterns of Pleistocene glacier fluctuations may be interpreted as responses, in-part, to precipitation-driven changes, and (2) the extent of LGM glaciation on New Zealand's North Island was probably more extensive than previously assumed.

CRN Dating and Numerical Glacier Modeling to Investigate Climate During the Last Glacial Maximum, and the Subsequent Deglaciation, Sawatch Range, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, C.; Leonard, E. M.

2016-12-01

The current study employs a combination of cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) surface-exposure dating and numerical glacier modeling to investigate the climate during and following the last glacial maximum (LGM) in the Sawatch Range of Colorado. A coupled 2-D energy/mass balance and flow model is used to asses the combinations of temperature and precipitation change that could have sustained glaciers in the range at their LGM extents in five valleys along the eastern flank of the range, by matching modeled ice extent to the well-preserved LGM moraines in each valley. In addition, the study couples modeling with CRN geochronology of post-LGM ice recession to try to understand the dynamics of deglaciation and the magnitudes and rates of the climate changes that drove it. Results to date include an equilibrium glacier model that fits LGM moraines in all five valleys with a 5.4°C temperature depression and no change from modern precipitation amounts or seasonality. Modeling of deglaciation indicates, however, that the response of individual glacier systems is strongly influenced by valley hypsometry as was suggested by previous workers. Low-gradient glacier systems in the range, including the Lake Creek and Clear Creek glaciers, respond dramatically to even small temperature increases, while much steeper systems, such as the Pine Creek glacier, experience much more limited retreat in response to the same climate forcing A CRN-based deglaciation chronology is available for the Lake Creek glacier, the largest of five paleoglaciers studied. The ages show that portions of the valley floor were ice-covered for several hundred years longer than the cirques above. The numerical model is currently being used to investigate two possible explanations for this. One possibility is that climate ameliorated and deglaciation proceeded so fast that thin ice in the cirques melted out before much thicker stagnant ice melted in the valley. A second possibility is that cross-divide flow from the wetter west side of the range maintained small east-side valley glaciers even as the east-side cirques deglaciated. Ongoing work will model a larger area of range to gain a better understanding of range-wide patterns of ice flow that could have affected deglaciation of the Lake Creek valley.

Evaluation of Rapid Adjustments to Radiative Forcing for Five Climate Forcing Agents in the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. J.; Forster, P.; Richardson, T.; Myhre, G.

2016-12-01

Effective radiative forcing (ERF), rather than "traditional" radiative forcing (RF), has become an increasingly popular metric in recent years, as it more closely links the difference in the earth's top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy budget to equilibrium near-surface temperature rise. One method to diagnose ERF is to take the difference of TOA radiative fluxes from two climate model runs (a perturbation and a control) with prescribed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice coverage. ERF can be thought of as the sum of a direct forcing, which is the pure radiative effect of a forcing agent, plus rapid adjustments, which are changes in climate state triggered by the forcing agent that themselves affect the TOA energy budget and are unrelated to surface temperature changes.In addition to the classic experiment of doubling of CO2 (2xCO2), we analyse rapid adjustments to a tripling of methane (3xCH4), a quintupling of sulphate aerosol (5xSul), a ten times increase in black carbon (10xBC) and a 2% increase in the solar constant (2%Sol). We use CMIP-style climate model diagnostics from six participating models of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP).Assuming approximately linear contributions to the TOA flux differences, the rapid adjustments from changes in atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, surface albedo and water vapour can be cleanly and simply separated from the direct forcing by radiative kernels. The rapid adjustments are in turn decomposed into stratospheric and tropospheric components. We introduce kernels based on the HadGEM2 climate model and find similar results to those based on other models. Cloud adjustments are evaluated as a residual of the TOA radiative fluxes between all-sky and clear-sky runs once direct forcing and rapid adjustments have been subtracted. The cloud adjustments are also calculated online within the HadGEM2 model using the ISCCP simulator. For aerosol forcing experiments, rapid adjustments vary substantially between models. Much of the contribution to this model spread is in the cloud adjustments. We also notice a spread in the model calculations of direct forcing for greenhouse gases, which suggest differences in the radiative transfer parameterisations used by each model.

NLTE steady-state response matrix method.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faussurier, G.; More, R. M.

2000-05-01

A connection between atomic kinetics and non-equilibrium thermodynamics has been recently established by using a collisional-radiative model modified to include line absorption. The calculated net emission can be expressed as a non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) symmetric response matrix. In the paper, this connection is extended to both cases of the average-atom model and the Busquet's model (RAdiative-Dependent IOnization Model, RADIOM). The main properties of the response matrix still remain valid. The RADIOM source function found in the literature leads to a diagonal response matrix, stressing the absence of any frequency redistribution among the frequency groups at this order of calculation.

Linear and quadratic static response functions and structure functions in Yukawa liquids.

PubMed

Magyar, Péter; Donkó, Zoltán; Kalman, Gabor J; Golden, Kenneth I

2014-08-01

We compute linear and quadratic static density response functions of three-dimensional Yukawa liquids by applying an external perturbation potential in molecular dynamics simulations. The response functions are also obtained from the equilibrium fluctuations (static structure factors) in the system via the fluctuation-dissipation theorems. The good agreement of the quadratic response functions, obtained in the two different ways, confirms the quadratic fluctuation-dissipation theorem. We also find that the three-point structure function may be factorizable into two-point structure functions, leading to a cluster representation of the equilibrium triplet correlation function.

Reconstruction of mass balance variations for Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand, 1913 to 1989

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woo, Mingko Woo; Fitzharris, B.B.

1992-11-01

A model of mass balance is constructed for the Franz Josef Glacier on the west coast of New Zealand. It uses daily data from a nearby, but short-record climate station. The model is extended back to 1913 by creating hybrid climate data from a long-record, but more distant, climate station. Its monthly data provide long-term temperature and precipitation trends, and daily fluctuations are simulated using a stochastic approach that is tuned to the characteristics of the short-record station. The glacier model provides estimates of equilibrium-line altitudes which are in reasonable agreement with those observed, and variations of cumulative mass balancemore » that correspond with patterns of advance and retreat of the glacier terminus.« less

Sustained and transient oscillations and chaos induced by delayed antiviral immune response in an immunosuppressive infection model.

PubMed

Shu, Hongying; Wang, Lin; Watmough, James

2014-01-01

Sustained and transient oscillations are frequently observed in clinical data for immune responses in viral infections such as human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus. To account for these oscillations, we incorporate the time lag needed for the expansion of immune cells into an immunosuppressive infection model. It is shown that the delayed antiviral immune response can induce sustained periodic oscillations, transient oscillations and even sustained aperiodic oscillations (chaos). Both local and global Hopf bifurcation theorems are applied to show the existence of periodic solutions, which are illustrated by bifurcation diagrams and numerical simulations. Two types of bistability are shown to be possible: (i) a stable equilibrium can coexist with another stable equilibrium, and (ii) a stable equilibrium can coexist with a stable periodic solution.

Optimal Sunshade Configurations for Space-Based Geoengineering near the Sun-Earth L1 Point.

PubMed

Sánchez, Joan-Pau; McInnes, Colin R

2015-01-01

Within the context of anthropogenic climate change, but also considering the Earth's natural climate variability, this paper explores the speculative possibility of large-scale active control of the Earth's radiative forcing. In particular, the paper revisits the concept of deploying a large sunshade or occulting disk at a static position near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange equilibrium point. Among the solar radiation management methods that have been proposed thus far, space-based concepts are generally seen as the least timely, albeit also as one of the most efficient. Large occulting structures could potentially offset all of the global mean temperature increase due to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates optimal configurations of orbiting occulting disks that not only offset a global temperature increase, but also mitigate regional differences such as latitudinal and seasonal difference of monthly mean temperature. A globally resolved energy balance model is used to provide insights into the coupling between the motion of the occulting disks and the Earth's climate. This allows us to revise previous studies, but also, for the first time, to search for families of orbits that improve the efficiency of occulting disks at offsetting climate change on both global and regional scales. Although natural orbits exist near the L1 equilibrium point, their period does not match that required for geoengineering purposes, thus forced orbits were designed that require small changes to the disk attitude in order to control its motion. Finally, configurations of two occulting disks are presented which provide the same shading area as previously published studies, but achieve reductions of residual latitudinal and seasonal temperature changes.

Optimal Sunshade Configurations for Space-Based Geoengineering near the Sun-Earth L1 Point

PubMed Central

Sánchez, Joan-Pau; McInnes, Colin R.

2015-01-01

Within the context of anthropogenic climate change, but also considering the Earth’s natural climate variability, this paper explores the speculative possibility of large-scale active control of the Earth’s radiative forcing. In particular, the paper revisits the concept of deploying a large sunshade or occulting disk at a static position near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange equilibrium point. Among the solar radiation management methods that have been proposed thus far, space-based concepts are generally seen as the least timely, albeit also as one of the most efficient. Large occulting structures could potentially offset all of the global mean temperature increase due to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates optimal configurations of orbiting occulting disks that not only offset a global temperature increase, but also mitigate regional differences such as latitudinal and seasonal difference of monthly mean temperature. A globally resolved energy balance model is used to provide insights into the coupling between the motion of the occulting disks and the Earth’s climate. This allows us to revise previous studies, but also, for the first time, to search for families of orbits that improve the efficiency of occulting disks at offsetting climate change on both global and regional scales. Although natural orbits exist near the L1 equilibrium point, their period does not match that required for geoengineering purposes, thus forced orbits were designed that require small changes to the disk attitude in order to control its motion. Finally, configurations of two occulting disks are presented which provide the same shading area as previously published studies, but achieve reductions of residual latitudinal and seasonal temperature changes. PMID:26309047

A Viscoelastic Constitutive Model Can Accurately Represent Entire Creep Indentation Tests of Human Patella Cartilage

PubMed Central

Pal, Saikat; Lindsey, Derek P.; Besier, Thor F.; Beaupre, Gary S.

2013-01-01

Cartilage material properties provide important insights into joint health, and cartilage material models are used in whole-joint finite element models. Although the biphasic model representing experimental creep indentation tests is commonly used to characterize cartilage, cartilage short-term response to loading is generally not characterized using the biphasic model. The purpose of this study was to determine the short-term and equilibrium material properties of human patella cartilage using a viscoelastic model representation of creep indentation tests. We performed 24 experimental creep indentation tests from 14 human patellar specimens ranging in age from 20 to 90 years (median age 61 years). We used a finite element model to reproduce the experimental tests and determined cartilage material properties from viscoelastic and biphasic representations of cartilage. The viscoelastic model consistently provided excellent representation of the short-term and equilibrium creep displacements. We determined initial elastic modulus, equilibrium elastic modulus, and equilibrium Poisson’s ratio using the viscoelastic model. The viscoelastic model can represent the short-term and equilibrium response of cartilage and may easily be implemented in whole-joint finite element models. PMID:23027200

Climatic vs. tectonic control on glacial relief

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasicek, Günther; Herman, Frederic; Robl, Jörg

2017-04-01

The limiting effect of a climatically-induced glacial buzz-saw on the height of mountain ranges has been extensively discussed in the geosciences. The buzz-saw concept assumes that solely climate controls the amount of topography present above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), while the rock uplift rate plays no relevant role. This view is supported by analyses of hypsometric patterns in orogens worldwide. Furthermore, numerical landscape evolution models show that glacial erosion modifies the hypsometry and reduces the overall relief of mountain landscapes. However, such models often do not incorporate tectonic uplift and can only simulate glacial erosion over a limited amount of time, typically one or several glacial cycles. Constraints on glacial end-member landscapes from analytical, time-independent models are widely lacking. Here we present a steady-state solution for a glacier equilibrium profile in an active orogen modified from the mathematical conception presented by Headley et al. (2012). Our approach combines a glacial erosion law with the shallow ice approximation, specifically the formulations of ice sliding and deformation velocities and ice flux, to calculate ice surface and bed topography from prescribed specific mass balance and rock uplift rate. This solution allows the application of both linear and non-linear erosion laws and can be iteratively fitted to a predefined gradient of specific mass balance with elevation. We tested the influence of climate (fixed rock uplift rate, different ELAs) and tectonic forcing (fixed ELA, different rock uplift rates) on steady-state relief. Our results show that, similar to fluvial orogens, both climate and rock uplift rate exert a strong influence on glacial relief and that the relation among rock uplift rate and relief is governed by the glacial erosion law. This finding can provide an explanation for the presence of high relief in high latitudes. Headley, R.M., Roe, G., Hallet, B., 2012. Glacier longitudinal profiles in regions of active uplift. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 317-318, 354-362.

Temperature Rise and Allowable Carbon Emissions for the RCP2.6 Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Huntingford, C.; Kawamiya, M.

2012-12-01

Climate research centres are running Earth System Models (ESMs) forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. While these GCM studies increase process based knowledge, the number of simulations is small, making it difficult to interpret the resulting distribution of responses in a probabilistic way. We use a probabilistic framework to estimate the range of future temperature change and allowable emissions for a low mitigation CO2 concentration pathway RCP 2.6. Uncertainty is initially estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then further constrained by extensive use of contemporary measurements. Despite this, the resulting range of temperatures for RCP 2.6 remains large. The predicted peak global temperature increase, reached around 2100, from pre-industrial is 0.8 - 1.9 K and 1.0 - 1.9 K (95% range) for the unconstrained and the constrained cases, respectively. Allowable emissions at the time of peak emission period is projected as 6.0 - 10.8 PgC yr-1 and 7.4 - 10.2 PgC yr-1 for each case. After year 2100, negative net emissions are required with a probability of some 84 %, and related uncertainty in cumulative emissions is large.

Soil Surface Organic Layers in Alaska's Arctic Foothills: Development, Distribution and Microclimatic Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baughman, C. A.; Mann, D. H.; Verbyla, D.; Valentine, D.; Kunz, M. L.; Heiser, P. A.

2013-12-01

Accumulated organic matter at the ground surface plays an important role in arctic ecosystems. These soil surface organic layers (SSOLs) influence temperature, moisture, and chemistry in the underlying mineral soil and, on a global basis, comprise enormous stores of labile carbon. Understanding the dynamics of SSOLs is prerequisite to modeling the responses of arctic ecosystem processes to climate changes. Here, we ask three questions regarding SSOLs in the Arctic Foothills in northern Alaska: 1) What environmental factors control their spatial distribution? 2) How long do they take to form? 3) What is the relationship between SSOL thickness and mineral soil temperature through the growing season? The best topographically-controlled predictors of SSOL thickness and spatial distribution are duration of sunlight during the growing-season, upslope drainage area, slope gradient, and elevation. SSOLs begin to form within several decades following disturbance but require 500-700 years to reach equilibrium states. Once formed, mature SSOLs lower peak growing-season temperature and mean annual temperature in the underlying mineral horizon by 8° and 3° C respectively, which reduces available growing degree days within the upper mineral soil by nearly 80%. How ongoing climate change in northern Alaska will affect the region's SSOLs is an open and potentially crucial question.

Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data.

Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data. PMID:24454550

Floating like a cork: The importance of glacial isostasy in the deglaciation progress in Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norddahl, H.; Ingolfsson, O.

2016-12-01

Being positioned on top of a hotspot and between two spreading ocean plates explains rheological structure of Iceland and the properties of a 30-35 km thick lithosphere, possibly with high proportion of partial melt, on top of a low viscous asthenosphere below Iceland, in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean. Rapid variations in glacier loading on the Iceland crust have been proved to generate more or less an instantaneous depression or uplift of the crust and, thus, uphold both temporal and spacial glacio-isostatic equilibrium. Formation of a shoreline requires at least temporal equilibrium between glacial isostasy and eustasy. Eminent raised shorelines - found throughout Iceland - were formed during two separate but consecutive culmination of climatically induced glacier re-advance and consequent transgression of relative sea-level in Younger Dryas and Preboreal times (12.0 and 11.3 kcal BP). A Marine Limit shoreline in W Iceland was formed at 14.7 kcal BP, subsequent to a collapse-like retreat of the marine based part of the Icelandic Ice Sheet (IIS) and just prior to the onset of the Bølling warming, i.e. during a period of anticipated rapid isostatic uplift. A temporary glacio-isostatic equilibrium at that time is best explained by changes in the mode of deglaciation generating dynamic changes within the Ice Sheet itself, changes that resulted in reduced rates of mass-loss and glacio-isostatic uplift to such a degree that a temporal quasi-equilibrium between eustatic rise and isostatic uplift was established. Formation of well-developed raised shoreline is generally regarded as a deglaciation proxy signaling large ice volume changes. Formation of the ML shoreline in W Iceland during the rapid climatic improvement at the beginning of the Bølling/Allerød Interstadial underlines the importance of, beside the geological data, also to take into consideration physical properties of both the lithosphere and asthenosphere in each location.

A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Stone, P. H.

Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model's sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM for a variety of transient forcing scenarios. Both surface warming and sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the deep ocean in response to a gradually increasing forcing are reasonably reproduced on time scales of 100-150 y. However a wide range of diffusion coefficients is needed to match the behavior of different AOGCMs. We use results of simulations with the 2-D model to show that the impact on climate change of the implied uncertainty in the rate of heat penetration into the deep ocean is comparable with that of other significant uncertainties.

Benthic-Pelagic Coupling in Biogeochemical and Climate Models: Existing Approaches, Recent developments and Roadblocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, Sandra

2016-04-01

Marine sediments are key components in the Earth System. They host the largest carbon reservoir on Earth, provide the only long term sink for atmospheric CO2, recycle nutrients and represent the most important climate archive. Biogeochemical processes in marine sediments are thus essential for our understanding of the global biogeochemical cycles and climate. They are first and foremost, donor controlled and, thus, driven by the rain of particulate material from the euphotic zone and influenced by the overlying bottom water. Geochemical species may undergo several recycling loops (e.g. authigenic mineral precipitation/dissolution) before they are either buried or diffuse back to the water column. The tightly coupled and complex pelagic and benthic process interplay thus delays recycling flux, significantly modifies the depositional signal and controls the long-term removal of carbon from the ocean-atmosphere system. Despite the importance of this mutual interaction, coupled regional/global biogeochemical models and (paleo)climate models, which are designed to assess and quantify the transformations and fluxes of carbon and nutrients and evaluate their response to past and future perturbations of the climate system either completely neglect marine sediments or incorporate a highly simplified representation of benthic processes. On the other end of the spectrum, coupled, multi-component state-of-the-art early diagenetic models have been successfully developed and applied over the past decades to reproduce observations and quantify sediment-water exchange fluxes, but cannot easily be coupled to pelagic models. The primary constraint here is the high computation cost of simulating all of the essential redox and equilibrium reactions within marine sediments that control carbon burial and benthic recycling fluxes: a barrier that is easily exacerbated if a variety of benthic environments are to be spatially resolved. This presentation provides an integrative overview of the benthic-pelagic coupling that accounts for the complex process interplay from the euphotic ocean to the deep sediment. It explores the intensity of the benthic-pelagic coupling across different environments and from the seasonal to the geological timescale. Different modelling approaches of coupling sediment and water column dynamics in regional/global biogeochemical models and (paleo)climate models are critically evaluated and their most important limitations, as well as the implications for our ability to predict the response of the global carbon cycle to past or future perturbations is discussed. Finally, the presentation identifies major roadblocks to the development of new model approaches and highlights how new techniques, new observational and laboratory data, as well as a close interdisciplinary collaboration can overcome these roadblocks.

Self-organization of grafted polyelectrolyte layers via the coupling of chemical equilibrium and physical interactions.

PubMed

Tagliazucchi, Mario; de la Cruz, Mónica Olvera; Szleifer, Igal

2010-03-23

The competition between chemical equilibrium, for example protonation, and physical interactions determines the molecular organization and functionality of biological and synthetic systems. Charge regulation by displacement of acid-base equilibrium induced by changes in the local environment provides a feedback mechanism that controls the balance between electrostatic, van der Waals, steric interactions and molecular organization. Which strategies do responsive systems follow to globally optimize chemical equilibrium and physical interactions? We address this question by theoretically studying model layers of end-grafted polyacids. These layers spontaneously form self-assembled aggregates, presenting domains of controlled local pH and whose morphologies can be manipulated by the composition of the solution in contact with the film. Charge regulation stabilizes micellar domains over a wide range of pH by reducing the local charge in the aggregate at the cost of chemical free energy and gaining in hydrophobic interactions. This balance determines the boundaries between different aggregate morphologies. We show that a qualitatively new form of organization arises from the coupling between physical interactions and protonation equilibrium. This optimization strategy presents itself with polyelectrolytes coexisting in two different and well-defined protonation states. Our results underline the need of considering the coupling between chemical equilibrium and physical interactions due to their highly nonadditive behavior. The predictions provide guidelines for the creation of responsive polymer layers presenting self-organized patterns with functional properties and they give insights for the understanding of competing interactions in highly inhomogeneous and constrained environments such as those relevant in nanotechnology and those responsible for biological cells function.

Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume.

PubMed

Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Saito, Fuyuki; Kawamura, Kenji; Raymo, Maureen E; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Takahashi, Kunio; Blatter, Heinz

2013-08-08

The growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past million years is dominated by an approximately 100,000-year periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests have demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. Yet insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100,000-year cycle, suggesting that internal climatic feedbacks may also be at work. Earlier conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms underpinning the 100,000-year cycle remain unclear. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. This fast retreat is governed mainly by rapid ablation due to the lowered surface elevation resulting from delayed isostatic rebound, which is the lithosphere-asthenosphere response. Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.

The timing of galvanic vestibular stimulation affects responses to platform translation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hlavacka, F.; Shupert, C. L.; Horak, F. B.; Peterson, B. W. (Principal Investigator)

1999-01-01

We compared the effects of galvanic vestibular stimulation applied at 0, 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 s prior to a backward platform translation on postural responses. The effect of the galvanic stimulation was largest on the final equilibrium position of the center of pressure (CoP). The largest effects occurred for the 0.5 and 0-s pre-period, when the dynamic CoP pressure changes in response to both the galvanic stimulus and the platform translation coincided. The shift in the final equilibrium position was also larger than the sum of the shifts for the galvanic stimulus and the platform translation alone for the 0.5 and 0-s pre-periods. The initial rate of change of the CoP response to the platform translation was not significantly affected in any condition. Changes in the peak CoP position could be accounted for by local interaction of CoP velocity changes induced by the galvanic and translation responses alone, but the changes in final equilibrium position could only be accounted for by a change in global body orientation. These findings suggest that the contribution of vestibulospinal information is greatest during the dynamic phase of the postural response, and that the vestibular system contributes most to the later components of the postural response, particularly to the final equilibrium position. These findings suggest that a nonlinear interaction between the vestibular signal induced by the galvanic current and the sensory stimuli produced by the platform translation occurs when the two stimuli are presented within 1 s, during the dynamic phase of the postural response to the galvanic stimulus. When presented at greater separations in time, the stimuli appear to be treated as independent events, such that no interaction occurs. Copyright 1999 Elsevier Science B.V.

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, theworld’s largest ocean,where relatively fresh surface waters inhibitNorth Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanyingmore » pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redoxsensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.« less

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

PubMed Central

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H.

2017-01-01

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world’s largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming. PMID:28924606

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

DOE PAGES

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.; ...

2017-09-13

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, theworld’s largest ocean,where relatively fresh surface waters inhibitNorth Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanyingmore » pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redoxsensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.« less

Prediction of HR/BP response to the spontaneous breathing trial by fluctuation dissipation theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Man

2014-03-01

We applied the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem to predict how critically-ill patients respond to treatment, based on both heart rate data and blood pressure data collected by standard hospital monitoring devices. The non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem relates the response of a system to a perturbation to the fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. It is shown that the response of patients to a standard procedure performed on patients, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), can be predicted by the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation approach. We classify patients into different groups according to the patients' characteristics. For each patient group, we extend the fluctuation dissipation theorem to predict interactions between blood pressure and beat-to-beat dynamics of heart rate in response to a perturbation (SBT), We also extract the form of the perturbation function directly from the physiological data, which may help to reduce the prediction error. We note this method is not limited to the analysis of the heart rate dynamics, but also can be applied to analyze the response of other physiological signals to other clinical interventions.

Improved partition equilibrium model for predicting analyte response in electrospray ionization mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Du, Lihong; White, Robert L

2009-02-01

A previously proposed partition equilibrium model for quantitative prediction of analyte response in electrospray ionization mass spectrometry is modified to yield an improved linear relationship. Analyte mass spectrometer response is modeled by a competition mechanism between analyte and background electrolytes that is based on partition equilibrium considerations. The correlation between analyte response and solution composition is described by the linear model over a wide concentration range and the improved model is shown to be valid for a wide range of experimental conditions. The behavior of an analyte in a salt solution, which could not be explained by the original model, is correctly predicted. The ion suppression effects of 16:0 lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC) on analyte signals are attributed to a combination of competition for excess charge and reduction of total charge due to surface tension effects. In contrast to the complicated mathematical forms that comprise the original model, the simplified model described here can more easily be employed to predict analyte mass spectrometer responses for solutions containing multiple components. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A hierarchical perspective of plant diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sarr, Daniel; Hibbs, D.E.; Huston, M.

2005-01-01

Predictive models of plant diversity have typically focused on either a landscapea??s capacity for richness (equilibrium models), or on the processes that regulate competitive exclusion, and thus allow species to coexist (nonequilibrium models). Here, we review the concepts and purposes of a hierarchical, multiscale model of the controls of plant diversity that incorporates the equilibrium model of climatic favorability at macroscales, nonequilibrium models of competition at microscales, and a mixed model emphasizing environmental heterogeneity at mesoscales. We evaluate the conceptual model using published data from three spatially nested datasets: (1) a macroscale analysis of ecoregions in the continental and western U.S.; (2) a mesoscale study in California; and (3) a microscale study in the Siskiyou Mountains of Oregon and California. At the macroscale (areas from 3889 km2 to 638,300 km2), climate (actual evaporation) was a strong predictor of tree diversity (R2 = 0.80), as predicted by the conceptual model, but area was a better predictor for vascular plant diversity overall (R2 = 0.38), which suggests different types of plants differ in their sensitivity to climatic controls. At mesoscales (areas from 1111 km2 to 15,833 km2 ), climate was still an important predictor of richness (R2 = 0.52), but, as expected, topographic heterogeneity explained an important share of the variance (R2 = 0.19), showed positive correlations with diversity of trees, shrubs, and annual and perennial herbs, and was the primary predictor of shrub and annual plant species richness. At microscales (0.1 ha plots), spatial patterns of diversity showed a clear unimodal pattern along a climatea??driven productivity gradient and a negative relationship with soil fertility. The strong decline in understory and total diversity at the most productive sites suggests that competitive controls, as predicted, can override climatic controls at this scale. We conclude that this hierarchical, multiscale model provides a sound basis to understand and analyze plant species diversity. Specifically, future research should employ the principles in this paper to explore climatic controls on species richness of different life forms, better quantify environmental heterogeneity in landscapes, and analyze how these largea??scale factors interact with local nonequilibrium dynamics to maintain plant diversity.

Critical evaluation of climate syntheses to benchmark CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka Last Interglacial simulations in the high-latitude regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capron, E.; Govin, A.; Feng, R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolff, E. W.

2017-07-01

The Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129-116 thousand years ago, ka) represents an excellent case study to investigate the response of sensitive components of the Earth System and mechanisms of high-latitude amplification to a climate warmer than present-day. The Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 4, hereafter referred as PMIP4) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6, hereafter referred as CMIP6) are coordinating the design of (1) a LIG Tier 1 equilibrium simulation to simulate the climate response at 127 ka, a time interval associated with a strong orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations close to preindustrial levels and (2) associated Tier 2 sensitivity experiments to examine the role of the ocean, vegetation and dust feedbacks in modulating the response to this orbital forcing. Evaluating the capability of the CMIP6/PMIP4 models to reproduce the 127 ka polar and sub-polar climate will require appropriate data-based benchmarks which are currently missing. Based on a recent data synthesis that offers the first spatio-temporal representation of high-latitude (i.e. poleward of 40°N and 40°S) surface temperature evolution during the LIG, we produce a new 126-128 ka time slab, hereafter named 127 ka time slice. This 127 ka time slice represents surface temperature anomalies relative to preindustrial and is associated with quantitative estimates of the uncertainties related to relative dating and surface temperature reconstruction methods. It illustrates warmer-than-preindustrial conditions in the high-latitude regions of both hemispheres. In particular, summer sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic region were on average 1.1 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.7 °C) warmer relative to preindustrial and 1.8 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.8 °C) in the Southern Ocean. In Antarctica, average 127 ka annual surface air temperature was 2.2 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 1.4 °C) warmer compared to preindustrial. We provide a critical evaluation of the latest LIG surface climate compilations that are available for evaluating LIG climate model experiments. We discuss in particular our new 127 ka time-slice in the context of existing LIG surface temperature time-slices. We also compare the 127 ka time slice with the ones published for the 125 and 130 ka time intervals and we discuss the potential and limits of a data-based time slice at 127 ka in the context of the upcoming coordinated modeling exercise. Finally we provide guidance on the use of the available LIG climate compilations for future model-data comparison exercises in the framework of the upcoming CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka experiments. We do not recommend the use of LIG peak warmth-centered syntheses. Instead we promote the use of the most recent syntheses that are based on coherent chronologies between paleoclimatic records and provide spatio-temporal reconstruction of the LIG climate. In particular, we recommend using our new 127 ka data-based time slice in model-data comparison studies with a focus on the high-latitude climate.

Economic impacts of bio-refinery and resource cascading systems: an applied general equilibrium analysis for Poland.

PubMed

Ignaciuk, Adriana M; Sanders, Johan

2007-12-01

Due to more stringent energy and climate policies, it is expected that many traditional chemicals will be replaced by their biomass-based substitutes, bio-chemicals. These innovations, however, can influence land allocation since the demand for land dedicated to specific crops might increase. Moreover, it can have an influence on traditional agricultural production. In this paper, we use an applied general equilibrium framework, in which we include two different bio-refinery processes and incorporate so-called cascading mechanisms. The bio-refinery processes use grass, as one of the major inputs, to produce bio-nylon and propane-diol (1,3PDO) to substitute currently produced fossil fuel-based nylon and ethane-diol. We examine the impact of specific climate policies on the bioelectricity share in total electricity production, land allocation, and production quantities and prices of selected commodities. The novel technologies become competitive, with an increased stringency of climate policies. This switch, however, does not induce a higher share of bioelectricity. The cascade does stimulate the production of bioelectricity, but it induces more of a shift in inputs in the bioelectricity sector (from biomass to the cascaded bio-nylon and 1, 3PDO) than an increase in production level of bioelectricity. We conclude that dedicated biomass crops will remain the main option for bioelectricity production: the contribution of the biomass systems remains limited. Moreover, the bioelectricity sector looses a competition for land for biomass production with bio-refineries.

Unraveling climatic changes from intra-profile variation in oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of goethite and kaolinite in laterites: An integrated study from Yaou, French Guiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Jean-Pierre; Freyssinet, Philippe; Chazot, Gilles

2000-02-01

An integrated study of O and H isotopes in the lateritic profile of Yaou, French Guiana, was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of stable isotopes as tracers of climatic changes in continental environments. The studied profile is composed of a 27 m thick saprolite, mostly developed in the past under wet-and-dry tropical climate in association with a duricrust, overlain by a 3 m thick yellow latosol formed more recently under present equatorial hot and humid climate. δ 18O-δD values determined for weathering goethite (pseudomorphs after pyrite) and kaolinite (microcrystalline clay groundmass) throughout the 30 m deep profile reflect formation temperatures consistent with present (25°C) and realistic past climatic temperatures (20°C-30°C), indicating that weathering minerals formed in isotopic equilibrium with their genetic environment and were not subjected to significant isotope exchange after formation. A distinct shift downward (2‰ for δ 18O, 15‰ for δD) from low to high δ 18O-δD values occurs around 20 m depth in the saprolite. It is interpreted as recording the change from the past tropical to the present equatorial climate. Goethite and kaolinite in the 5-10 m thick saprolite interval immediately above the active basement weathering front are in isotopic equilibrium with modern water and must have formed under present equatorial-humid conditions. In contrast, goethite and kaolinite found higher up in the saprolite and in the duricrust formed in the past under tropical wet and dry climate from waters distinctly depleted in 18O and D relative to modern water. The marked depletion of paleo-meteoric water at Yaou most likely reflects a more contrasted or "monsoonal" character of the ancient tropical climate. The present study shows that ancient weathering minerals in lateritic profiles preserve their δ 18O-δD values and carry a time signal. The time signal is best expressed in minerals formed rapidly at the weathering front and not subjected to post-formational remobilization, such as the goethite pseudomorphs after pyrite occurring at Yaou. Groundmass kaolinite is more susceptible to partial remobilization, through successive dissolution-precipitation reactions, which may obliterate the paleoclimatic signal. Unraveling the climatic record carried by weathering minerals in old soil systems is greatly enhanced by studying both oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions.

Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy

2015-04-01

The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.

A toy model linking atmospheric thermal radiation and sea ice growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thorndike, A. S.

1992-01-01

A simplified analytical model of sea ice growth is presented where the atmosphere is in thermal radiative equilibrium with the ice. This makes the downwelling longwave radiation reaching the ice surface an internal variable rather than a specified forcing. Analytical results demonstrate how the ice state depends on properties of the ice and on the externally specified climate.

Correcting anthropogenic ocean heat uptake estimates for the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebbie, Geoffrey

2017-04-01

Estimates of anthropogenic ocean heat uptake typically assume that the ocean was in equilibrium during the pre-industrial era. Recent reconstructions of the Common Era, however, show a multi-century surface cooling trend before the Industrial Revolution. Using a time-evolving state estimation method, we find that the 1750 C.E. ocean must have been out of equilibrium in order to fit the H.M.S. Challenger, WOCE, and Argo hydrographic data. When the disequilibrated ocean conditions are taken into account, the inferred ocean heat uptake from 1750-2014 C.E. is revised due to the deep ocean memory of Little Ice Age surface forcing. These effects of ocean disequilibrium should also be considered when interpreting climate sensitivity estimates.

Numerical modeling of the Snowmass Creek paleoglacier, Colorado, and climate in the Rocky Mountains during the Bull Lake glaciation (MIS 6)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eric M. Leonard; Mitchell A. Plummer; Paul E. Carrara

2014-04-01

Well-preserved moraines from the penultimate, or Bull Lake, glaciation of Snowmass Creek Valley in the Elk Range of Colorado present an opportunity to examine the character of the high-altitude climate in the Rocky Mountains during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 6. This study employs a 2-D coupled mass/energy balance and flow model to assess the magnitudes of temperature and precipitation change that could have sustained the glacier in mass-balance equilibrium at its maximum extent during the Bull Lake glaciation. Variable substrate effects on glacier flow and ice thickness make the modeling somewhat more complex than in geologically simpler settings. Model resultsmore » indicate that a temperature depression of about 6.7°C compared with the present (1971–2000 AD) would have been necessary to sustain the Snowmass Creek glacier in mass-balance equilibrium during the Bull Lake glaciation, assuming no change in precipitation amount or seasonality. A 50% increase or decrease from modern precipitation would have been coupled with 5.2°C and 9.1°C Bull Lake temperature depressions respectively. Uncertainty in these modeled temperature depressions is about 1°C.« less

Relevant climate response tests for stratospheric aerosol injection: A combined ethical and scientific analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenferna, Georges Alexandre; Russotto, Rick D.; Tan, Amanda; Gardiner, Stephen M.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we focus on stratospheric sulfate injection as a geoengineering scheme, and provide a combined scientific and ethical analysis of climate response tests, which are a subset of outdoor tests that would seek to impose detectable and attributable changes to climate variables on global or regional scales. We assess the current state of scientific understanding on the plausibility and scalability of climate response tests. Then, we delineate a minimal baseline against which to consider whether certain climate response tests would be relevant for a deployment scenario. Our analysis shows that some climate response tests, such as those attempting to detect changes in regional climate impacts, may not be deployable in time periods relevant to realistic geoengineering scenarios. This might pose significant challenges for justifying stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection deployment overall. We then survey some of the major ethical challenges that proposed climate response tests face. We consider what levels of confidence would be required to ethically justify approving a proposed test; whether the consequences of tests are subject to similar questions of justice, compensation, and informed consent as full-scale deployment; and whether questions of intent and hubris are morally relevant for climate response tests. We suggest further research into laboratory-based work and modeling may help to narrow the scientific uncertainties related to climate response tests, and help inform future ethical debate. However, even if such work is pursued, the ethical issues raised by proposed climate response tests are significant and manifold.

Application of a coupled ecosystem-chemical equilibrium model, DayCent-Chem, to stream and soil chemistry in a Rocky Mountain watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, M.D.; Baron, Jill S.; Ojima, D.S.

2007-01-01

Atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species have the potential to acidify terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, but nitrate and ammonium are also critical nutrients for plant and microbial productivity. Both the ecological response and the hydrochemical response to atmospheric deposition are of interest to regulatory and land management agencies. We developed a non-spatial biogeochemical model to simulate soil and surface water chemistry by linking the daily version of the CENTURY ecosystem model (DayCent) with a low temperature aqueous geochemical model, PHREEQC. The coupled model, DayCent-Chem, simulates the daily dynamics of plant production, soil organic matter, cation exchange, mineral weathering, elution, stream discharge, and solute concentrations in soil water and stream flow. By aerially weighting the contributions of separate bedrock/talus and tundra simulations, the model was able to replicate the measured seasonal and annual stream chemistry for most solutes for Andrews Creek in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park. Simulated soil chemistry, net primary production, live biomass, and soil organic matter for forest and tundra matched well with measurements. This model is appropriate for accurately describing ecosystem and surface water chemical response to atmospheric deposition and climate change. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deep arid system hydrodynamics 1. Equilibrium states and response times in thick desert vadose zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walvoord, Michelle Ann; Plummer, Mitchell A.; Phillips, Fred M.; Wolfsberg, Andrew V.

2002-01-01

Quantifying moisture fluxes through deep desert soils remains difficult because of the small magnitude of the fluxes and the lack of a comprehensive model to describe flow and transport through such dry material. A particular challenge for such a model is reproducing both observed matric potential and chloride profiles. We propose a conceptual model for flow in desert vadose zones that includes isothermal and nonisothermal vapor transport and the role of desert vegetation in supporting a net upward moisture flux below the root zone. Numerical simulations incorporating this conceptual model match typical matric potential and chloride profiles. The modeling approach thereby reconciles the paradox between the recognized importance of plants, upward driving forces, and vapor flow processes in desert vadose zones and the inadequacy of the downward‐only liquid flow assumption of the conventional chloride mass balance approach. Our work shows that water transport in thick desert vadose zones at steady state is usually dominated by upward vapor flow and that long response times, of the order of 104–105 years, are required to equilibrate to existing arid surface conditions. Simulation results indicate that most thick desert vadose zones have been locked in slow drying transients that began in response to a climate shift and establishment of desert vegetation many thousands of years ago.

Equilibrium drives of the low and high field side n = 2 plasma response and impact on global confinement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paz-Soldan, C.; Logan, N. C.; Haskey, S. R.

The nature of the multi-modal n=2 plasma response and its impact on global confinement is studied as a function of the axisymmetric equilibrium pressure, edge safety factor, collisionality, and L-versus H-mode conditions. Varying the relative phase (ΔΦ UL) between upper and lower in-vessel coils demonstrates that different n=2 poloidal spectra preferentially excite different plasma responses. These different plasma response modes are preferentially detected on the tokamak high-field side (HFS) or low-field side (LFS) midplanes, have different radial extents, couple differently to the resonant surfaces, and have variable impacts on edge stability and global confinement. In all equilibrium conditions studied, themore » observed confinement degradation shares the same ΔΦ UL dependence as the coupling to the resonant surfaces given by both ideal (IPEC) and resistive (MARS-F) MHD computation. Varying the edge safety factor shifts the equilibrium field-line pitch and thus the ΔΦ UL dependence of both the global confinement and the n=2 magnetic response. As edge safety factor is varied, modeling finds that the HFS response (but not the LFS response), the resonant surface coupling, and the edge displacements near the X-point all share the same ΔΦ UL dependence. The LFS response magnitude is strongly sensitive to the core pressure and is insensitive to the collisionality and edge safety factor. This indicates that the LFS measurements are primarily sensitive to a pressure-driven kink-ballooning mode that couples to the core plasma. MHD modeling accurately reproduces these (and indeed all) LFS experimental trends and supports this interpretation. In contrast to the LFS, the HFS magnetic response and correlated global confinement impact is unchanged with plasma pressure, but is strongly reduced in high collisionality conditions in both H- and L-mode. This experimentally suggests the bootstrap current drives the HFS response through the kink-peeling mode drive, though surprisingly weak or no dependence on the bootstrap current is seen in modeling. Instead, modeling is revealed to be very sensitive to the details of the edge current profile and equilibrium truncation. Furthermore, holding truncation fixed, most HFS experimental trends are not captured, thus demonstrating a stark contrast between the robustness of the HFS experimental results and the sensitivity of its computation.« less

Equilibrium drives of the low and high field side n  =  2 plasma response and impact on global confinement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz-Soldan, C.; Logan, N. C.; Haskey, S. R.; Nazikian, R.; Strait, E. J.; Chen, X.; Ferraro, N. M.; King, J. D.; Lyons, B. C.; Park, J.-K.

2016-05-01

The nature of the multi-modal n  =  2 plasma response and its impact on global confinement is studied as a function of the axisymmetric equilibrium pressure, edge safety factor, collisionality, and L-versus H-mode conditions. Varying the relative phase (Δ {φ\\text{UL}} ) between upper and lower in-vessel coils demonstrates that different n  =  2 poloidal spectra preferentially excite different plasma responses. These different plasma response modes are preferentially detected on the tokamak high-field side (HFS) or low-field side (LFS) midplanes, have different radial extents, couple differently to the resonant surfaces, and have variable impacts on edge stability and global confinement. In all equilibrium conditions studied, the observed confinement degradation shares the same Δ {φ\\text{UL}} dependence as the coupling to the resonant surfaces given by both ideal (IPEC) and resistive (MARS-F) MHD computation. Varying the edge safety factor shifts the equilibrium field-line pitch and thus the Δ {φ\\text{UL}} dependence of both the global confinement and the n  =  2 magnetic response. As edge safety factor is varied, modeling finds that the HFS response (but not the LFS response), the resonant surface coupling, and the edge displacements near the X-point all share the same Δ {φ\\text{UL}} dependence. The LFS response magnitude is strongly sensitive to the core pressure and is insensitive to the collisionality and edge safety factor. This indicates that the LFS measurements are primarily sensitive to a pressure-driven kink-ballooning mode that couples to the core plasma. MHD modeling accurately reproduces these (and indeed all) LFS experimental trends and supports this interpretation. In contrast to the LFS, the HFS magnetic response and correlated global confinement impact is unchanged with plasma pressure, but is strongly reduced in high collisionality conditions in both H- and L-mode. This experimentally suggests the bootstrap current drives the HFS response through the kink-peeling mode drive, though surprisingly weak or no dependence on the bootstrap current is seen in modeling. Instead, modeling is revealed to be very sensitive to the details of the edge current profile and equilibrium truncation. Holding truncation fixed, most HFS experimental trends are not captured, thus demonstrating a stark contrast between the robustness of the HFS experimental results and the sensitivity of its computation.

Equilibrium drives of the low and high field side n = 2 plasma response and impact on global confinement

DOE PAGES

Paz-Soldan, C.; Logan, N. C.; Haskey, S. R.; ...

2016-03-31

The nature of the multi-modal n=2 plasma response and its impact on global confinement is studied as a function of the axisymmetric equilibrium pressure, edge safety factor, collisionality, and L-versus H-mode conditions. Varying the relative phase (ΔΦ UL) between upper and lower in-vessel coils demonstrates that different n=2 poloidal spectra preferentially excite different plasma responses. These different plasma response modes are preferentially detected on the tokamak high-field side (HFS) or low-field side (LFS) midplanes, have different radial extents, couple differently to the resonant surfaces, and have variable impacts on edge stability and global confinement. In all equilibrium conditions studied, themore » observed confinement degradation shares the same ΔΦ UL dependence as the coupling to the resonant surfaces given by both ideal (IPEC) and resistive (MARS-F) MHD computation. Varying the edge safety factor shifts the equilibrium field-line pitch and thus the ΔΦ UL dependence of both the global confinement and the n=2 magnetic response. As edge safety factor is varied, modeling finds that the HFS response (but not the LFS response), the resonant surface coupling, and the edge displacements near the X-point all share the same ΔΦ UL dependence. The LFS response magnitude is strongly sensitive to the core pressure and is insensitive to the collisionality and edge safety factor. This indicates that the LFS measurements are primarily sensitive to a pressure-driven kink-ballooning mode that couples to the core plasma. MHD modeling accurately reproduces these (and indeed all) LFS experimental trends and supports this interpretation. In contrast to the LFS, the HFS magnetic response and correlated global confinement impact is unchanged with plasma pressure, but is strongly reduced in high collisionality conditions in both H- and L-mode. This experimentally suggests the bootstrap current drives the HFS response through the kink-peeling mode drive, though surprisingly weak or no dependence on the bootstrap current is seen in modeling. Instead, modeling is revealed to be very sensitive to the details of the edge current profile and equilibrium truncation. Furthermore, holding truncation fixed, most HFS experimental trends are not captured, thus demonstrating a stark contrast between the robustness of the HFS experimental results and the sensitivity of its computation.« less

Foraminiferal Stable Isotope Record at Millville, NJ: Implications for the onset of the PETM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, J. D.; Miller, K. G.

2016-12-01

Traditional paleoceanographic tools (magneto-biostratigraphy, orbital cycles) are insufficient to assign rates to the initial release of carbon during the rapid onset of the PETM (<10 kyr). The ODP Leg 174AX Millville, NJ PETM section (70 m paleodepth) is >10 times more expanded relative to the thickest open ocean sites (e.g., Site 690). The onset interval at Millville is defined by a bulk carbonate δ13C of 3.5‰ across 25 cm interval. Two groups used the geochemical changes to constrain the timing for the initial pulse of carbon. Wright and Schaller (2013) focused on the differential responses in δ13C and %CaCO3 arguing that the release was fast (<1 year). Conversely, Zeebe et al. (2016) assumed the initial covariance in δ18O and δ13C represented equilibrium conditions, modeling a 4 kyr duration for the release. We generated planktonic and benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records across the onset of the PETM CIE at Millville. Most of the δ13C change recorded by foraminifera occurred over the 25 cm onset interval. However, foraminiferal δ18O values continue to decrease for another 1.5 m above the initial δ13C decrease contradicting Zeebe et al.'s assumption of equilibrium conditions. The foraminiferal stable isotope pattern is similar to the modeled response following a large, instantaneous release of light carbon to the atmosphere, that produces a rapid (decadal) scale warming in the surface air masses followed by continued warming but at a slower rate. Differential responses in δ13C, δ18O, and %CaCO3 at the onset of the PETM are consistent with an instantaneous initial release of carbon with centennial-scale warming that continued well after the initial carbon pulse similar to that predicted by climate models. Fitting the Millville isotope records to these models suggests that peak warmth followed the initial release by 100 to 200 years. The mid-shelf location of Millville a made it responsive to atmospheric changes unlike open ocean sites where thermal inertia dampens the larger atmosphere changes.

New Proxies for Climate change parameters: Foram Culturing and Pteropod Potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keul, N.; Schneider, R. R.; Langer, G.; Bijma, J.; Peijnenburg, K. T.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most pressing challenges our society is currently facing and strong efforts are made to simulate future climate conditions. To better validate models that aim at predicting global temperature rise as a consequence of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, accurate atmospheric paleo-CO2 estimates in combination with temperature reconstructions are necessary. Consequently there is a strong need for reliable proxies, allowing reconstruction of climate change. With respect to foraminifera a combination of laboratory experiments and modeling is presented, to show the isolated impact of the different parameters of the carbonate system on trace element composition of their shells. We focus on U/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios, which have recently been established as new proxies reflecting changes in the carbonate system of seawater. While U/Ca correlates with carbonate ion concentration, Sr/Ca is primarily influenced by DIC. The latter is particularly promising since the impact of additional parameters is relatively well constrained and hence, Sr/Ca ratios may allow higher accuracy in carbonate system parameter reconstructions. Furthermore, our results will be discussed on how to advance our knowledge about foraminiferal biomineralization. Pteropods, among the first responders to ocean acidification and warming, are explored as carriers of marine paleoenvironmental signals. In order to characterize the stable isotopic composition of aragonitic pteropod shells and their variation in response to climate change parameters, pteropod shells were collected along a latitudinal transect in the Atlantic Ocean. By comparing shell oxygen isotopic composition to depth changes of the calculated aragonite equilibrium oxygen isotope values, we infer shallow calcification depths for Heliconoides inflatus (75 m), rendering this species a good potential proxy carrier for past variations in surface ocean properties. Furthermore, we demonstrate that indeed, pteropod shells are excellent recorders of climate change, as carbonate ion and temperature in the upper water column have dominant influences on pteropod shell carbon and oxygen isotopic composition. These results, in combination with a wide distribution and high abundance, make H. inflatus, a promising new proxy carrier in paleoceanography.

Stability boundaries for command augmentation systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shrivastava, P. C.

1987-01-01

The Stability Augmentation System (SAS) is a special case of the Command Augmentation System (CAS). Control saturation imposes bounds on achievable commands. The state equilibrium depends only on the open loop dynamics and control deflection. The control magnitude to achieve a desired command equilibrium is independent of the feedback gain. A feedback controller provides the desired response, maintains the system equilibrium under disturbances, but it does not affect the equilibrium values of states and control. The saturation boundaries change with commands, but the location of the equilibrium points in the saturated region remains unchanged. Nonzero command vectors yield saturation boundaries that are asymmetric with respect to the state equilibrium. Except for the saddle point case with MCE control law, the stability boundaries change with commands. For the cases of saddle point and unstable nodes, the region of stability decreases with increasing command magnitudes.

An Analog Earth Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varekamp, J. C.

2010-12-01

The earth climate is broadly governed by the radiative power of the sun as well as the heat retention and convective cooling of the atmosphere. I have constructed an analog earth model for an undergraduate climate class that simulates mean climate using these three parameters. The ‘earth’ is a hollow, black, bronze sphere (4 cm diameter) mounted on a thin insulated rod, and illuminated by two opposite optic fibers, with light focused on the sphere by a set of lenses. The sphere is encased in a large double-walled aluminum cylinder (34 cm diameter by 26 cm high) with separate water cooling jackets at the top, bottom, and sides. The cylinder can be filled with a gas of choice at a variety of pressures or can be run in vacuum. The exterior is cladded with insulation, and the temperature of the sphere, atmosphere and walls is monitored with thermocouples. The temperature and waterflow of the three cooling jackets can be monitored to establish the energy output of the whole system; the energy input is the energy yield of the two optic fibers. A small IR transmissive lens at the top provides the opportunity to hook up the fiber of a hyper spectrometer to monitor the emission spectrum of the black ‘earth’ sphere. A pressure gauge and gas inlet-outlet system for flushing of the cell completes it. The heat yield of the cooling water at the top is the sum of the radiative and convective components, whereas the bottom jacket only carries off the radiative heat of the sphere. Undergraduate E&ES students at Wesleyan University have run experiments with dry air, pure CO2, N2 and Ar at 1 atmosphere, and a low vacuum run was accomplished to calibrate the energy input. For each experiment, the lights are flipped on, the temperature acquisition routine is activated, and the sphere starts to warm up until an equilibrium temperature has been reached. The lights are then flipped off and the cooling sequence towards ambient is registered. The energy input is constant for a given experiment. For each time increment the radiative heat loss of the sphere is calculated from the Stefan Boltzman expression using the observed temperature at that time. The heating of the ‘earth sphere’ is accounted for in the energy balance equation by applying the temperature increase per time increment with the specific heat of bronze. The remaining energy term is the sum of the convective cooling and greenhouse effect. The heat budgets of the cooling trajectories were calculated analogous, with radiative and convective cooling causing the temperature drop per time increment. The greenhouse component again is lumped with the convective term. Equilibrium temperatures of 50-70 C were reached, with ambient temperature at 22 C. Somewhat surprising, experiments with radiatively neutral pure Argon gas yielded the highest equilibrium temperatures. Argon had the lowest specific heat of the gases used, and the observed equilibrium temperatures for different cell gases broadly scaled inversely with the heat capacity of those gases. Apparently, the efficiency of the free convective cooling strongly impacts the equilibrium temperatures. The greenhouse effects possibly have only a minor impact on final temperature as a result of the short cell pathlength. Experiments at higher cell filling pressures may provide more insight in this.

Landscape transformations at the dawn of agriculture in southern Syria (10.7-9.9 ka cal. BP): Plant-specific responses to the impact of human activities and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arranz-Otaegui, Amaia; López-Sáez, José Antonio; Araus, José Luis; Portillo, Marta; Balbo, Andrea; Iriarte, Eneko; Gourichon, Lionel; Braemer, Frank; Zapata, Lydia; Ibáñez, Juan José

2017-02-01

In southwest Asia, the accelerated impact of human activities on the landscape has often been linked to the development of fully agricultural societies during the middle and late Pre-Pottery Neolithic B (PPNB) period (around 10.2-7.9 ka cal. BP). This work contributes to the debate on the environmental impact of the so-called Neolitisation process by identifying the climatic and anthropogenic factors that contributed to change local and regional vegetation at the time when domesticated plants appeared and developed in southern Syria (around 10.7-9.9 ka cal. BP). In this work a multidisciplinary analysis of plant microremains (pollen and phytoliths) and macroremains (wood charcoal) is carried out along with stable carbon isotope discrimination of wood charcoals in an early PPNB site (Tell Qarassa North, west of the Jabal al-Arab area). Prior to 10.5 ka cal. BP, the results indicate a dynamic equilibrium in the local and regional vegetation, which comprised woodland-steppe, Mediterranean evergreen oak-woodlands, wetland vegetation and coniferous forests. Around 10.5-9.9 ka cal. BP, the elements that regulated the vegetation system changed, resulting in reduced proportions of arboreal cover and the spread of cold-tolerant and wetlands species. Our data show that reinforcing interaction between the elements of the anthropogenic (e.g. herding, fire-related activities) and climatic systems (e.g. temperature, rainfall) contributed to the transformation of early Holocene vegetation during the emergence of fully agricultural societies in southern Syria.

Natural Air-Sea Flux of CO2 in Simulations of the NASA-GISS Climate Model: Sensitivity to the Physical Ocean Model Formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanou, A.; Gregg, Watson W.; Romanski, J.; Kelley, M.; Bleck, R.; Healy, R.; Nazarenko, L.; Russell, G.; Schmidt, G. A.; Sun, S.;

Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model: ECHAM6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Bjorn; Giorgetta, Marco; Esch, Monika; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Crueger, Traute; Rast, Sebastian; Salzmann, Marc; Schmidt, Hauke; Bader, Jürgen; Block, Karoline; Brokopf, Renate; Fast, Irina; Kinne, Stefan; Kornblueh, Luis; Lohmann, Ulrike; Pincus, Robert; Reichler, Thomas; Roeckner, Erich

2013-06-01

ECHAM6, the sixth generation of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, is described. Major changes with respect to its predecessor affect the representation of shortwave radiative transfer, the height of the model top. Minor changes have been made to model tuning and convective triggering. Several model configurations, differing in horizontal and vertical resolution, are compared. As horizontal resolution is increased beyond T63, the simulated climate improves but changes are incremental; major biases appear to be limited by the parameterization of small-scale physical processes, such as clouds and convection. Higher vertical resolution in the middle atmosphere leads to a systematic reduction in temperature biases in the upper troposphere, and a better representation of the middle atmosphere and its modes of variability. ECHAM6 represents the present climate as well as, or better than, its predecessor. The most marked improvements are evident in the circulation of the extratropics. ECHAM6 continues to have a good representation of tropical variability. A number of biases, however, remain. These include a poor representation of low-level clouds, systematic shifts in major precipitation features, biases in the partitioning of precipitation between land and sea (particularly in the tropics), and midlatitude jets that appear to be insufficiently poleward. The response of ECHAM6 to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is similar to that of ECHAM5. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of the mixed-resolution (T63L95) configuration is between 2.9 and 3.4 K and is somewhat larger for the 47 level model. Cloud feedbacks and adjustments contribute positively to warming from increasing greenhouse gases.

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

PubMed Central

Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Verification of the ideal magnetohydrodynamic response at rational surfaces in the VMEC code

DOE PAGES

Lazerson, Samuel A.; Loizu, Joaquim; Hirshman, Steven; ...

2016-01-13

The VMEC nonlinear ideal MHD equilibrium code [S. P. Hirshman and J. C. Whitson, Phys. Fluids 26, 3553 (1983)] is compared against analytic linear ideal MHD theory in a screw-pinch-like configuration. The focus of such analysis is to verify the ideal MHD response at magnetic surfaces which possess magnetic transform (ι) which is resonant with spectral values of the perturbed boundary harmonics. A large aspect ratio circular cross section zero-beta equilibrium is considered. This equilibrium possess a rational surface with safety factor q = 2 at a normalized flux value of 0.5. A small resonant boundary perturbation is introduced, excitingmore » a response at the resonant rational surface. The code is found to capture the plasma response as predicted by a newly developed analytic theory that ensures the existence of nested flux surfaces by allowing for a jump in rotational transform (ι=1/q). The VMEC code satisfactorily reproduces these theoretical results without the necessity of an explicit transform discontinuity (Δι) at the rational surface. It is found that the response across the rational surfaces depends upon both radial grid resolution and local shear (dι/dΦ, where ι is the rotational transform and Φ the enclosed toroidal flux). Calculations of an implicit Δι suggest that it does not arise due to numerical artifacts (attributed to radial finite differences in VMEC) or existence conditions for flux surfaces as predicted by linear theory (minimum values of Δι). Scans of the rotational transform profile indicate that for experimentally relevant levels of transform shear the response becomes increasing localised. Furthermore, careful examination of a large experimental tokamak equilibrium, with applied resonant fields, indicates that this shielding response is present, suggesting the phenomena is not limited to this verification exercise.« less

The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M - Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.; Kirkevåg, A.; Seland, Ø.; Drange, H.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Medhaug, I.; Sand, M.; Seierstad, I. A.

2012-09-01

The NorESM1-M simulation results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html) are described and discussed. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible man made climate change. NorESM is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR on behalf of many contributors in USA. The ocean model is replaced by a developed version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with on-line calculations of aerosols, their direct effect, and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in a companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity slightly smaller than 2.9 K, a transient climate response just below 1.4 K, and is less sensitive than most other models. Cloud feedbacks damp the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near surface temperatures, for evaporation, and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield global surface air temperature increase almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100, and completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to reduce by 12%, 15-17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to shift northwards. There are indications of more frequent spring and summer blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sectors and that ENSO events weaken but appear more frequent. These indications are uncertain because of biases in the model's representation of present-day conditions. There are indications that positive phase PNA and negative phase NAO become less frequent under the RCP8.5 scenario, but also this result is considered uncertain. Single-forcing experiments indicate that aerosols and greenhouse gases produce similar geographical patterns of response for near surface temperature and precipitation. These patterns tend to have opposite sign, with important exceptions for precipitation at low latitudes. The asymmetric aerosol effects between the two hemispheres leads to a southward displacement of ITCZ. Both forcing agents thus tend to reduce northern hemispheric subtropical precipitation.

Soil Response to Global Change: Soil Process Domains and Pedogenic Thresholds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, O.; Kramer, M. G.; Chorover, J.

2013-12-01

The capacity of soil to withstand perturbations, whether driven by climate, land use change, or spread of invasive species, depends on its chemical composition and physical state. The dynamic interplay between stable, well buffered soil process domains and thresholds in soil state and function is a strong determinant of soil response to forcing from global change. In terrestrial ecosystems, edaphic responses are often mediated by availability of water and its flux into and through soils. Water influences soil processes in several ways: it supports biological production, hence proton-donor, electron-donor and complexing-ligand production; it determines the advective removal of dissolution products, and it can promote anoxia that leads microorganisms to utilize alternative electron acceptors. As a consequence climate patterns strongly influence global distribution of soil, although within region variability is governed by other factors such as landscape age, parent material and human land use. By contrast, soil properties can vary greatly among climate regions, variation which is guided by the functioning of a suite of chemical processes that tend to maintain chemical status quo. This soil 'buffering' involves acid-base reactions as minerals weather and oxidation-reduction reactions that are driven by microbial respiration. At the planetary scale, soil pH provides a reasonable indicator of process domains and varies from about 3.5 to10, globally, although most soils lie between about 4.5 and 8.5. Those that are above 7.5 are strongly buffered by the carbonate system, those that are characterized by neutral pH (7.5-6) are buffered by release of non-hydrolyzing cations from primary minerals and colloid surfaces, and those that are <6 are buffered by hydrolytic aluminum on colloidal surfaces. Alkali and alkaline (with the exception of limestone parent material) soils are usually associated with arid and semiarid conditions, neutral pH soils with young soils in both dry and wet environments and acid soils with wet environments. Furthermore acid soils often have lost much of their easily weatherable primary minerals and their soluble (plant nutrient) ions, and thus much of their ability to buffer against acidity introduced by biological respiration and its products. Acid soils are closer to thermodynamic equilibrium with their near-surface environment and are less vulnerable to change compared with soils that contain a substantial supply of weatherable minerals (young soils) or carbonate minerals (dry soils). The impact of changing seasonal and annual rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns associated with climate change depends on how current pedogenic thresholds manifest across the landscape. We expect that humid soils subjected to drying should undergo less change than arid or semi-arid soils subjected to wetter seasonal conditions. Land-use changes can drive differential responses depending on changing chemistry and porosity. Collectively these factors provide the framework from which to predict and map soil sensivity to global change and climate change in particular.

Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.

PubMed

Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E

2007-02-02

Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.

Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina

2016-02-01

We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias.

Assessing climate impacts

PubMed Central

Wohl, Ellen E.; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Zhang, Jian Yun

2000-01-01

Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fundamental driving-response interactions associated with climate variability, increasingly powerful measurement and modeling techniques make assessing climate impacts a rapidly developing frontier of science. PMID:11027321

Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses.

PubMed

Gienapp, P; Teplitsky, C; Alho, J S; Mills, J A; Merilä, J

2008-01-01

Rapid climate change is likely to impose strong selection pressures on traits important for fitness, and therefore, microevolution in response to climate-mediated selection is potentially an important mechanism mitigating negative consequences of climate change. We reviewed the empirical evidence for recent microevolutionary responses to climate change in longitudinal studies emphasizing the following three perspectives emerging from the published data. First, although signatures of climate change are clearly visible in many ecological processes, similar examples of microevolutionary responses in literature are in fact very rare. Second, the quality of evidence for microevolutionary responses to climate change is far from satisfactory as the documented responses are often - if not typically - based on nongenetic data. We reinforce the view that it is as important to make the distinction between genetic (evolutionary) and phenotypic (includes a nongenetic, plastic component) responses clear, as it is to understand the relative roles of plasticity and genetics in adaptation to climate change. Third, in order to illustrate the difficulties and their potential ubiquity in detection of microevolution in response to natural selection, we reviewed the quantitative genetic studies on microevolutionary responses to natural selection in the context of long-term studies of vertebrates. The available evidence points to the overall conclusion that many responses perceived as adaptations to changing environmental conditions could be environmentally induced plastic responses rather than microevolutionary adaptations. Hence, clear-cut evidence indicating a significant role for evolutionary adaptation to ongoing climate warming is conspicuously scarce.

Temperature in and out of equilibrium: A review of concepts, tools and attempts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puglisi, A.; Sarracino, A.; Vulpiani, A.

2017-11-01

We review the general aspects of the concept of temperature in equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. Although temperature is an old and well-established notion, it still presents controversial facets. After a short historical survey of the key role of temperature in thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, we tackle a series of issues which have been recently reconsidered. In particular, we discuss different definitions and their relevance for energy fluctuations. The interest in such a topic has been triggered by the recent observation of negative temperatures in condensed matter experiments. Moreover, the ability to manipulate systems at the micro and nano-scale urges to understand and clarify some aspects related to the statistical properties of small systems (as the issue of temperature's ;fluctuations;). We also discuss the notion of temperature in a dynamical context, within the theory of linear response for Hamiltonian systems at equilibrium and stochastic models with detailed balance, and the generalized fluctuation-response relations, which provide a hint for an extension of the definition of temperature in far-from-equilibrium systems. To conclude we consider non-Hamiltonian systems, such as granular materials, turbulence and active matter, where a general theoretical framework is still lacking.

Effect of Sediment Availability in Bedload-Dominated Rivers on Fluvial Geomorphic Equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marti, M.

2016-12-01

Channels are known to compensate for changes in sediment supply via covariate changes in channel properties, yet the timescale for adjustment remains poorly constrained. We propose that reductions in sediment flux inhibit equilibrium re-establishment and thus impact the timescale of system adjustment. Using run-of-river dams as natural experiments, this study quantifies the geomorphic response of channels to sediment supply reduction. Channel traits that facilitate increased sediment trapping behind the dam, such as large reservoir storage capacity relative to annual inflow and low slope, were expected to inhibit a channel's ability to re-establish equilibrium following impoundment, lengthening the equilibrium establishment timescale to tens or hundreds of years. Reaches associated with increased trapping were therefore anticipated to exhibit non-equilibrium forms. Channel equilibrium was evaluated downstream of 8 ROR dams in New England with varying degrees of sediment trapping. Sites cover a range of watershed sizes (3-155 km2), channel slopes (.05-5%), 2-year discharges (1.5-60 m3/s) and storage capacity volumes. Because equilibrium channel form is just sufficient to mobilize grains under bankfull conditions in bedload-dominated rivers, the Shields parameter was used to assess equilibrium form. Unregulated, upstream Shields values and regulated, downstream values were calculated at 14 total cross-sections extending 300-450 m upstream and downstream of each dam. Sediment trapping was estimated using Brune's curve (1953). On the Charles Brown Brook (VT), a marginally significant (p=0.08) increase in Shields values from a mean of 0.14 upstream to 0.41 downstream of a 100+ year old dam was observed. In contrast, reaches downstream of the 100+ year old Pelham dam (MA) exhibit significantly lower Shields values. This suggests that trapping behind the dam inhibits the downstream channel from reaching an equilibrium state, but not always in the same way. Better understanding of geomorphic response to reduced sediment flux as a control on equilibrium establishment will broaden the knowledge of geomorphic equilibrium and aid in management of regulated, bedload-dominated rivers.

Leveraging the Novel Climates of Arboreta to Understand Tree Responses to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettinger, A.; Wolkovich, E. M.; Joly, S.

2016-12-01

Rising global temperatures are expected to cause large-scale changes to forests, including altered mortality and recruitment rates, and dramatic changes in species composition, but exactly how tree growth will be affected by climate change is uncertain. Studies to date suggest that temperate and boreal tree responses to warming range from growing faster, slower, or at unchanged rates. Here we present an approach and preliminary findings that will improve predictions of tree responses to climate change by studying how tree traits, including phenology (e.g. the timing of leaf-out), wood density, leaf mass area, and height, relate to climate sensitivity (i.e. growth responses to annual changes in climate, Figure 1). We demonstrate how arboreta can be used to understand tree responses to climate change using 500 individuals across 65 tree species growing at the Arnold Arboretum, Boston, Massachusetts. Arboretum provide a unique opportunities for understanding temperate tree responses to climate change: they provide large collections of woody species growing together that enable traits to be studied across diverse species in a phylogenetic context. Furthermore, many species in arboreta are nonnative and have been exposed to "novel" climates that may resemble future conditions in their native distributions. We use a phylogenetic approach to understand how annual growth and climate sensitivity relate to focal traits, and asses what these findings may tell us about tree responses to climate change.

What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

PubMed

Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A

2016-01-01

Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.

A Game Theoretical Model for Location of Terror Response Facilities under Capacitated Resources

PubMed Central

Kang, Qi; Xu, Weisheng; Wu, Qidi

2013-01-01

This paper is concerned with the effect of capacity constraints on the locations of terror response facilities. We assume that the state has limited resources, and multiple facilities may be involved in the response until the demand is satisfied consequently. We formulate a leader-follower game model between the state and the terrorist and prove the existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium. An integer linear programming is proposed to obtain the equilibrium results when the facility number is fixed. The problem is demonstrated by a case study of the 19 districts of Shanghai, China. PMID:24459446

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A conceptual model of plant responses to climate with implications for monitoring ecosystem change

Treesearch

C. David Bertelsen

2013-01-01

Climate change is affecting natural systems on a global scale and is particularly rapid in the Southwest. It is important to identify impacts of a changing climate before ecosystems become unstable. Recognizing plant responses to climate change requires knowledge of both species present and plant responses to variable climatic conditions. A conceptual model derived...

Three-stage stochastic pump: Another type of Onsager-Casimir symmetry and results far from equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosas, Alexandre; Van den Broeck, Christian; Lindenberg, Katja

2018-06-01

The stochastic thermodynamic analysis of a time-periodic single particle pump sequentially exposed to three thermochemical reservoirs is presented. The analysis provides explicit results for flux, thermodynamic force, entropy production, work, and heat. These results apply near equilibrium as well as far from equilibrium. In the linear response regime, a different type of Onsager-Casimir symmetry is uncovered. The Onsager matrix becomes symmetric in the limit of zero dissipation.

Non-equilibrium effects in atmospheric characteristic oscillations due to radiation balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurgaliyeva, K. E.; Somsikov, V. M.

2008-12-01

Nowadays researches on global change of climate are faces the challenge of insufficient development of open system theory. In this connection the problem of energy and entropy exchange process between solar radiation and atmospheric gas influence on atmospheric dynamics in the frames of non-equilibrium thermodynamics was studied in this work. For this purpose the equations of flow [fluid] dynamics for interacting medium - gas and radiation - with taking into account the entropy production in atmosphere and its exchanging between gas and radiation were used in this work. Dispersion relation numerical analysis of atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) in non-equilibrium atmosphere was carried out. It has been established that the spectra in the daytime hours shifts on high-frequency region in comparison with nighttime spectra. This difference can reach several percent in certain atmospheric regions. For the spectrum of the equilibrium model of the atmosphere the difference between the daytime and nighttime spectra makes up several fractions of percent. A comparison of the theoretical calculations of AGWs spectrum with observations confirmed the availability of non-equilibrium effects in the AGWs spectral composition. In particular, that concerns of Antarctic data results gave the difference is about 4 percent, Almaty data results ranges between 1.3 - 6 per cent in depends of season. Investigation of wave disturbances on sunset and sunrise periods of time shows that there is a tendency for low frequency region at evening-time spectra and high frequency region at morning- time spectra.

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koven, C. D.; Chambers, J. Q.; Georgiou, K.

To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, themore » situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr −1 increasing CO 2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO 2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.« less

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

DOE PAGES

Koven, C. D.; Chambers, J. Q.; Georgiou, K.; ...

2015-09-07

To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, themore » situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr −1 increasing CO 2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO 2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.« less

Disruption of River Networks in Nature and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perron, J. T.; Black, B. A.; Stokes, M.; McCoy, S. W.; Goldberg, S. L.

2017-12-01

Many natural systems display especially informative behavior as they respond to perturbations. Landscapes are no exception. For example, longitudinal elevation profiles of rivers responding to changes in uplift rate can reveal differences among erosional mechanisms that are obscured while the profiles are in equilibrium. The responses of erosional river networks to perturbations, including disruption of their network structure by diversion, truncation, resurfacing, or river capture, may be equally revealing. In this presentation, we draw attention to features of disrupted erosional river networks that a general model of landscape evolution should be able to reproduce, including the consequences of different styles of planetary tectonics and the response to heterogeneous bedrock structure and deformation. A comparison of global drainage directions with long-wavelength topography on Earth, Mars, and Saturn's moon Titan reveals the extent to which persistent and relatively rapid crustal deformation has disrupted river networks on Earth. Motivated by this example and others, we ask whether current models of river network evolution adequately capture the disruption of river networks by tectonic, lithologic, or climatic perturbations. In some cases the answer appears to be no, and we suggest some processes that models may be missing.

Equilibrium moisture content during storage, manufacturing, and shipping of Bolivian wood products

Treesearch

Omar A. Espinoza; Brian H. Bond; Joseph R. Loferski

2007-01-01

After lumber is kiln-dried it is important to keep its moisture content (MC) as close as possible to its target value during all stages of production to assure final product quality. Knowledge of climate conditions at all stages of the manufacturing process is essential to provide a good control of lumber MC. This study is the first step to provide Bolivian companies...

Thermal response of a Fermi-Pasta-Ulam chain with Andersen thermostats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Ambrosio, Federico; Baiesi, Marco

2017-11-01

The linear response to temperature variations is well characterised for equilibrium systems but a similar theory is not available, for example, for inertial heat conducting systems, whose paradigm is the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) model driven by two different boundary temperatures. For models of inertial systems out of equilibrium, including relaxing systems, we show that Andersen thermostats are a natural tool for studying the thermal response. We derive a fluctuation-response relation that allows to predict thermal expansion coefficients or the heat capacitance in nonequilibrium regimes. Simulations of the FPU chain of oscillators suggest that estimates of susceptibilities obtained with our relation are better than those obtained via a small perturbation.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

2009-12-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be reached as the climate is further warmed. Finally, we suggest novel model validation techniques based upon comparing the characteristics of FY and MY ice within models to observations. We propose that keeping an account of FY and MY ice area within sea ice models offers a powerful new way to evaluate model projections of sea ice in a greenhouse warming climate.

Student Understanding of Liquid-Vapor Phase Equilibrium

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boudreaux, Andrew; Campbell, Craig

2012-01-01

Student understanding of the equilibrium coexistence of a liquid and its vapor was the subject of an extended investigation. Written assessment questions were administered to undergraduates enrolled in introductory physics and chemistry courses. Responses have been analyzed to document conceptual and reasoning difficulties in sufficient detail to…

Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:23468879

Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

PubMed

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

2012-01-01

Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

Effect of resonant magnetic perturbations on microturbulence in DIII-D pedestal

DOE PAGES

Holod, I.; Lin, Z.; Taimourzadeh, S.; ...

2016-10-03

Vacuum resonant magnetic perturbations (RMP) applied to otherwise axisymmetric tokamak plasmas produce in general a combination of non-resonant effects that preserve closed flux surfaces (kink response) and resonant effects that introduce magnetic islands and/or stochasticity (tearing response). The effect of the plasma kink response on the linear stability and nonlinear transport of edge turbulence is studied using the gyrokinetic toroidal code GTC for a DIII-D plasma with applied n = 2 vacuum RMP. GTC simulations use the 3D equilibrium of DIII-D discharge 158103 (Nazikian et al 2015 Phys. Rev. Lett. 114 105002), which is provided by nonlinear ideal MHD VMECmore » equilibrium solver in order to include the effect of the plasma kink response to the external field but to exclude island formation at rational surfaces. Analysis using the GTC simulation results reveal no increase of growth rates for the electrostatic drift wave instability and for the electromagnetic kinetic-ballooning mode in the presence of the plasma kink response to the RMP. Moreover, nonlinear electrostatic simulations show that the effect of the 3D equilibrium on zonal flow damping is very weak and found to be insufficient to modify turbulent transport in the electrostatic turbulence.« less

Educational climate seems unrelated to leadership skills of clinical consultants responsible of postgraduate medical education in clinical departments.

PubMed

Malling, Bente; Mortensen, Lene S; Scherpbier, Albert J J; Ringsted, Charlotte

2010-09-21

The educational climate is crucial in postgraduate medical education. Although leaders are in the position to influence the educational climate, the relationship between leadership skills and educational climate is unknown. This study investigates the relationship between the educational climate in clinical departments and the leadership skills of clinical consultants responsible for education. The study was a trans-sectional correlation study. The educational climate was investigated by a survey among all doctors (specialists and trainees) in the departments. Leadership skills of the consultants responsible for education were measured by multi-source feedback scores from heads of departments, peer consultants, and trainees. Doctors from 42 clinical departments representing 21 specialties participated. The response rate of the educational climate investigation was moderate 52% (420/811), Response rate was high in the multisource-feedback process 84.3% (420/498). The educational climate was scored quite high mean 3.9 (SD 0.3) on a five-point Likert scale. Likewise the leadership skills of the clinical consultants responsible for education were considered good, mean 5.4 (SD 0.6) on a seven-point Likert scale. There was no significant correlation between the scores concerning the educational climate and the scores on leadership skills, r = 0.17 (p = 0.29). This study found no relation between the educational climate and the leadership skills of the clinical consultants responsible for postgraduate medical education in clinical departments with the instruments used. Our results indicate that consultants responsible for education are in a weak position to influence the educational climate in the clinical department. Further studies are needed to explore, how heads of departments and other factors related to the clinical organisation could influence the educational climate.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

2016-01-01

Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

Dynamics Analysis of Anti-predator Model on Intermediate Predator With Ratio Dependent Functional Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savitri, D.

2018-01-01

This articel discusses a predator prey model with anti-predator on intermediate predator using ratio dependent functional responses. Dynamical analysis performed on the model includes determination of equilibrium point, stability and simulation. Three kinds of equilibrium points have been discussed, namely the extinction of prey point, the extinction of intermediate predator point and the extinction of predator point are exists under certain conditions. It can be shown that the result of numerical simulations are in accordance with analitical results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lazerson, Samuel A.; Loizu, Joaquim; Hirshman, Steven

The VMEC nonlinear ideal MHD equilibrium code [S. P. Hirshman and J. C. Whitson, Phys. Fluids 26, 3553 (1983)] is compared against analytic linear ideal MHD theory in a screw-pinch-like configuration. The focus of such analysis is to verify the ideal MHD response at magnetic surfaces which possess magnetic transform (ι) which is resonant with spectral values of the perturbed boundary harmonics. A large aspect ratio circular cross section zero-beta equilibrium is considered. This equilibrium possess a rational surface with safety factor q = 2 at a normalized flux value of 0.5. A small resonant boundary perturbation is introduced, excitingmore » a response at the resonant rational surface. The code is found to capture the plasma response as predicted by a newly developed analytic theory that ensures the existence of nested flux surfaces by allowing for a jump in rotational transform (ι=1/q). The VMEC code satisfactorily reproduces these theoretical results without the necessity of an explicit transform discontinuity (Δι) at the rational surface. It is found that the response across the rational surfaces depends upon both radial grid resolution and local shear (dι/dΦ, where ι is the rotational transform and Φ the enclosed toroidal flux). Calculations of an implicit Δι suggest that it does not arise due to numerical artifacts (attributed to radial finite differences in VMEC) or existence conditions for flux surfaces as predicted by linear theory (minimum values of Δι). Scans of the rotational transform profile indicate that for experimentally relevant levels of transform shear the response becomes increasing localised. Furthermore, careful examination of a large experimental tokamak equilibrium, with applied resonant fields, indicates that this shielding response is present, suggesting the phenomena is not limited to this verification exercise.« less

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

PubMed Central

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285

Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

PubMed

Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-03-04

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Equilibrium Temperatures and Albedos of Habitable Earth-Like Planets in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Genio, Anthony; Way, Michael; Amundsen, David; Sohl, Linda; Fujii, Yuka; Ebihara, Yuka; Kiang, Nancy; Chandler, Mark; Aleinov, Igor; Kelley, Maxwell

2017-01-01

The potential habitability of detected exoplanets is typically assessed using the concept of equilibrium temperature (T[subscript] e) based on cloud-free 1-D models with assumed albedo equal to Earth's (0.3) to determine whether a planet lies in the habitable zone. Incident stellar flux appears to be a better metric for stars unlike the Sun. These estimates, however, ignore the effect of clouds on planetary albedo and the fact that the climates of synchronously rotating planets are not well predicted by 1-D models. Given that most planet candidates that will be detected in the next few years will be tidally locked and orbiting M stars, how might the habitable zone e tailored to better in-form characterization with scarce observing resources?

Human alterations, dynamic equilibrium, and riparian ecosystem responses along selected rivers in Tuscany, Italy (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hupp, C. R.; Rinaldi, M.

2010-12-01

Many, if not most, streams have been mildly to severely affected by human disturbance, which complicates efforts to understand riparian ecosystems. Mediterranean regions have a long history of human influences including: dams, stream channelization, mining of sediment, and levee /canal construction. Typically these alterations reduce the ecosystem services that functioning floodplains provide and may negatively impact the natural ecology of floodplains through reductions in suitable habitats, biodiversity, and nutrient cycling. Additionally, human alterations typically shift affected streams away from a state of natural dynamic equilibrium, where net sediment deposition is approximately in balance with net erosion. Lack of equilibrium typically affects the degree to which floodplain ecosystems are connected to streamflow regime. Low connectivity, usually from human- or climate-induced incision, may result in reduced flow on floodplains and lowered water tables. High connectivity may result in severe sediment deposition. Connectivity has a direct impact on vegetation communities. Riparian vegetation distribution patterns and diversity relative to various fluvial geomorphic channel patterns, landforms, and processes are described and interpreted for selected rivers of Tuscany, Central Italy; with emphasis on channel evolution following human impacts. Multivariate analysis reveals distinct quantitative vegetation patterns related to six fluvial geomorphic surfaces. Analysis of vegetation data also shows distinct associations of plants with adjustment processes related to the stage of channel evolution. Plant distribution patterns coincide with disturbance/landform/soil moisture gradients. Species richness increases from channel bed to terrace and on heterogeneous riparian areas, while species richness decreases from moderate to intense incision and from low to intense narrowing. As a feedback mechanism, woody vegetation in particular may facilitate geomorphic recovery of floodplains by affecting sedimentation dynamics. Identification and understanding of critical fluvial parameters related to floodplain connectivity (e.g. stream gradient, grain-size, and hydrography) and spatial and temporal sediment deposition/erosion process trajectories should facilitate management efforts to retain and/or regain important ecosystem services.

Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schu, Kathryn L.

Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements. Neither policy induces major increases in fuel economy.

Students’ misconceptions on solubility equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiowati, H.; Utomo, S. B.; Ashadi

2018-05-01

This study investigated the students’ misconceptions of the solubility equilibrium. The participants of the study consisted of 164 students who were in the science class of second year high school. Instrument used is two-tier diagnostic test consisting of 15 items. Responses were marked and coded into four categories: understanding, misconception, understand little without misconception, and not understanding. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 45 students according to their written responses which reflected different perspectives, to obtain a more elaborated source of data. Data collected from multiple methods were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Based on the data analysis showed that the students misconceptions in all areas in solubility equilibrium. They had more misconceptions such as in the relation of solubility and solubility product, common-ion effect and pH in solubility, and precipitation concept.

Dynamic and static equilibrium sea level effects of Greenland Ice Sheet melt: An assessment of partially-coupled idealized water hosing experiments (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Griffies, S. M.; Yin, J.; Hay, C. C.; Stouffer, R. J.

2010-12-01

Regional sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change, but because they are studied by two different subdisciplines -- climate modeling and glacial rebound modeling -- projections that attempt to combine both have to date been scarce. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic "water-hosing" experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, freshwater hosing experiments in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) do not yield clear DSL trends but do generate DSL variability; comparing that variability to expected static equilibrium "fingerprints" suggests that at least about 40 years of observations are needed to detect the "fingerprints" of ice sheet melt at current Greenland melt rates of about 0.3 mm equivalent sea level (esl)/year. Accelerated melt rates of about 2--6 mm esl/y, as may occur later in the century, should be detectable above background DSL variability within less than a decade of their onset. At these higher melt rates, AOGCMs do yield clear DSL trends. In the GFDL CM 2.1 model, DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects come to dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds about 20 cm esl.

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

PubMed Central

Franks, Steven J; Weber, Jennifer J; Aitken, Sally N

2014-01-01

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species’ life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change. PMID:24454552

Can species distribution models really predict the expansion of invasive species?

PubMed

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Rome, Quentin; Villemant, Claire; Courchamp, Franck

2018-01-01

Predictive studies are of paramount importance for biological invasions, one of the biggest threats for biodiversity. To help and better prioritize management strategies, species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the potential invasive range of introduced species. Yet, SDMs have been regularly criticized, due to several strong limitations, such as violating the equilibrium assumption during the invasion process. Unfortunately, validation studies-with independent data-are too scarce to assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in invasion biology. Yet, biological invasions allow to test SDMs usefulness, by retrospectively assessing whether they would have accurately predicted the latest ranges of invasion. Here, we assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in predicting the expansion of invasive species. We used temporal occurrence data for the Asian hornet Vespa velutina nigrithorax, a species native to China that is invading Europe with a very fast rate. Specifically, we compared occurrence data from the last stage of invasion (independent validation points) to the climate suitability distribution predicted from models calibrated with data from the early stage of invasion. Despite the invasive species not being at equilibrium yet, the predicted climate suitability of validation points was high. SDMs can thus adequately predict the spread of V. v. nigrithorax, which appears to be-at least partially-climatically driven. In the case of V. v. nigrithorax, SDMs predictive accuracy was slightly but significantly better when models were calibrated with invasive data only, excluding native data. Although more validation studies for other invasion cases are needed to generalize our results, our findings are an important step towards validating the use of SDMs in invasion biology.

Can species distribution models really predict the expansion of invasive species?

PubMed Central

Rome, Quentin; Villemant, Claire; Courchamp, Franck

2018-01-01

Predictive studies are of paramount importance for biological invasions, one of the biggest threats for biodiversity. To help and better prioritize management strategies, species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the potential invasive range of introduced species. Yet, SDMs have been regularly criticized, due to several strong limitations, such as violating the equilibrium assumption during the invasion process. Unfortunately, validation studies–with independent data–are too scarce to assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in invasion biology. Yet, biological invasions allow to test SDMs usefulness, by retrospectively assessing whether they would have accurately predicted the latest ranges of invasion. Here, we assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in predicting the expansion of invasive species. We used temporal occurrence data for the Asian hornet Vespa velutina nigrithorax, a species native to China that is invading Europe with a very fast rate. Specifically, we compared occurrence data from the last stage of invasion (independent validation points) to the climate suitability distribution predicted from models calibrated with data from the early stage of invasion. Despite the invasive species not being at equilibrium yet, the predicted climate suitability of validation points was high. SDMs can thus adequately predict the spread of V. v. nigrithorax, which appears to be—at least partially–climatically driven. In the case of V. v. nigrithorax, SDMs predictive accuracy was slightly but significantly better when models were calibrated with invasive data only, excluding native data. Although more validation studies for other invasion cases are needed to generalize our results, our findings are an important step towards validating the use of SDMs in invasion biology. PMID:29509789

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Climate-Response Program in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lent, Robert M.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a framework for a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic climate-response program designed to provide early warning of changes in the seasonal water cycle of Maine. Climate-related hydrologic changes on Maine's rivers and lakes in the winter and spring during the last century are well documented, and several river and lake variables have been shown to be sensitive to air-temperature changes. Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. The framework of the hydrologic climate-response program presented here consists of four major parts: (1) identifying homogeneous climate-response regions; (2) identifying hydrologic components and key variables of those components that would be included in a hydrologic climate-response data network - as an example, streamflow has been identified as a primary component, with a key variable of streamflow being winter-spring streamflow timing; the data network would be created by maintaining existing USGS data-collection stations and establishing new ones to fill data gaps; (3) regularly updating historical trends of hydrologic data network variables; and (4) establishing basins for process-based studies. Components proposed for inclusion in the hydrologic climate-response data network have at least one key variable for which substantial historical data are available. The proposed components are streamflow, lake ice, river ice, snowpack, and groundwater. The proposed key variables of each component have extensive historical data at multiple sites and are expected to be responsive to climate change in the next few decades. These variables are also important for human water use and (or) ecosystem function. Maine would be divided into seven climate-response regions that follow major river-basin boundaries (basins subdivided to hydrologic units with 8-digit codes or larger) and have relatively homogeneous climates. Key hydrologic variables within each climate-response region would be analyzed regularly to maintain up-to-date analyses of year-to-year variability, decadal variability, and longer term trends. Finally, one basin in each climate-response region would be identified for process-based hydrologic and ecological studies.

A revised energy-balance framework for the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessler, A. E.

2017-12-01

Some of the most important conclusions of climate science are based on energy balance calculations, in which solar energy absorbed by the Earth system is set equal to infrared energy radiated to space. Traditionally, energy radiated to space is assumed to be proportional to surface temperature. We show here problems with this framework, including potential biases in estimates of climate sensitivity based on the 20th-century historical record. This could potentially explain why estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using observations over the 20th century yield values lower than other estimates. We then present a modified version of the energy balance framework in which energy radiated to space is assumed to be proportional to tropical atmospheric temperature. We use this new framework to estimate ECS and obtain an estimate of 3°C, with a likely range (66% confidence interval) of 2.2-4.1°C.

Southern Ocean Bottom Water Characteristics in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, Céline; Heywood, Karen; Stevens, David; Ridley, Jeff

2013-04-01

The depiction of Southern Ocean deep water properties and formation processes in climate models is an indicator of their capability to simulate future climate, heat and carbon uptake, and sea level rise. Southern Ocean potential temperature and density averaged over 1986-2005 from fifteen CMIP5 climate models are compared with an observed climatology, focusing on bottom water properties. The mean bottom properties are reasonably accurate for half of the models, but the other half may not yet have approached an equilibrium state. Eleven models create dense water on the Antarctic shelf, but it does not spill off and propagate northwards, alternatively mixing rapidly with less dense water. Instead most models create deep water by open ocean deep convection. Models with large deep convection areas are those with a strong seasonal cycle in sea ice. The most accurate bottom properties occur in models hosting deep convection in the Weddell and Ross gyres.

Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China

PubMed Central

Matsumoto, Ken’ichi

2015-01-01

This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks. PMID:26660094

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Coppin, David

General circulation models show that as the surface temperature increases, the convective anvil clouds shrink. By analyzing radiative–convective equilibrium simulations, our work shows that this behavior is rooted in basic energetic and thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere: As the climate warms, the clouds rise and remain at nearly the same temperature, but find themselves in a more stable atmosphere; this enhanced stability reduces the convective outflow in the upper troposphere and decreases the anvil cloud fraction. By warming the troposphere and increasing the upper-tropospheric stability, the clustering of deep convection also reduces the convective outflow and the anvil cloud fraction.more » When clouds are radiatively active, this robust coupling between temperature, high clouds, and circulation exerts a positive feedback on convective aggregation and favors the maintenance of strongly aggregated atmospheric states at high temperatures. This stability iris mechanism likely contributes to the narrowing of rainy areas as the climate warms. Whether or not it influences climate sensitivity requires further investigation.« less

Climatic implications of the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O in the Martian regolith

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zent, A. P.

1992-01-01

The current paradigm for quasi-periodic climate change on Mars holds that perhaps a few hundred millibars of CO2 are available for exchange between the atmosphere and regolith, and that a vast majority of that CO2 is presently absorbed into the regolith. The CO2 is partitioned between the regolith and atmosphere according to an equilibrium adsorptive relationship. If the atmospheric pressure exceeds the frost point at or near the poles, then quasi-permanent polar caps form and buffer the atmospheric pressure. This model was developed based upon laboratory studies of CO2 adsorption where no other adsorbates are present. We will conduct laboratory measurements of the simultaneous adsorption of H2O and CO2 under Mars-like conditions, and develop numerical expressions for use in climate modeling based upon our results.

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

1980-01-01

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics.

PubMed

Kirk, Devin; Jones, Natalie; Peacock, Stephanie; Phillips, Jessica; Molnár, Péter K; Krkošek, Martin; Luijckx, Pepijn

2018-02-01

The complexity of host-parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host-parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host-parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics

PubMed Central

Jones, Natalie; Peacock, Stephanie; Phillips, Jessica; Molnár, Péter K.; Krkošek, Martin; Luijckx, Pepijn

2018-01-01

The complexity of host–parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host–parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host–parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level. PMID:29415043

Tangent linear super-parameterization: attributable, decomposable moist processes for tropical variability studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mapes, B. E.; Kelly, P.; Song, S.; Hu, I. K.; Kuang, Z.

2015-12-01

An economical 10-layer global primitive equation solver is driven by time-independent forcing terms, derived from a training process, to produce a realisting eddying basic state with a tracer q trained to act like water vapor mixing ratio. Within this basic state, linearized anomaly moist physics in the column are applied in the form of a 20x20 matrix. The control matrix was derived from the results of Kuang (2010, 2012) who fitted a linear response function from a cloud resolving model in a state of deep convecting equilibrium. By editing this matrix in physical space and eigenspace, scaling and clipping its action, and optionally adding terms for processes that do not conserve moist statice energy (radiation, surface fluxes), we can decompose and explain the model's diverse moist process coupled variability. Recitified effects of this variability on the general circulation and climate, even in strictly zero-mean centered anomaly physic cases, also are sometimes surprising.

Regionally heterogeneous paleoenvironmental responses in the West African and South American monsoon systems on glacial to millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.

2008-12-01

Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.

The possibility of a tipping point in the Arctic sea ice cover, and associated early-warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jastamin Steene, Rebekka

2017-04-01

As the Arctic sea ice has become one of the primer indicators of global climate change, with a seemingly accelerated loss in both ice extent and volume the latest decades, the existence of a tipping point related to the Arctic sea ice cover has been widely debated. Several observed and potential abrupt transitions in the climate system may be interpreted as bifurcations in randomly driven dynamical systems. This means that a system approaching a bifurcation point shifts from one stable state to another, and we say that the system is subject to a critical transition. As the equilibrium states become unstable in the vicinity of a bifurcation point the characteristic relaxation times increases, and the system is said to experience a "critical slowing down". This makes it plausible to observe so called early-warning signals (EWS) when approaching a critical transition. In the Arctic non-linear mechanisms like the temperature response of the ice-albedo feedback can potentially cause a sudden shift to an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Using bifurcation theory and potential analyses we examine time series of observational data of the Arctic sea ice, investigating the possibility of multiple states in the behavior of the ice cover. We further debate whether a shift between states is irreversible, and whether it can be preluded by early-warning signals.

Climate response to the meltwater runoff from Greenland Ice Sheet: evolving sensitivity to discharging locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hallberg, R.; Sergienko, O. V.; Samuels, B.; Harrison, M.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) might have lost a large amount of its volume during the last interglacial and may do so again in the future due to climate warming. In this study, we show that the climate response to the GIS meltwater is sensitive to its discharging location initially but become insensitive after two to three hundred years. Two fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, CM2G and CM2M, are employed to do the test. They differ in only their ocean components, one with isopycnal coordinate and the other with z-coordinate. The ocean components of both model are run at the nominal 1° horizontal resolution. In each experiment, a prescribed freshwater flux of 0.1 Sv is discharged into a single gridbox near one of the four locations around Greenland - Petermann, 79 North, Jacobshavn and Helheim glaciers. The results from both models show that the climate impact during the first two to three hundred years, in terms of AMOC and sea ice extent, is 15% (CM2G) and 31% (CM2M) stronger when the freshwater is discharged from the northern GIS (Petermann and 79 North) than when it is discharged from the southern GIS (Jacobshavn and Helheim). This is due to easier access of the freshwater from northern GIS to the deepwater formation site in the Nordic Seas. In the long term (>300 year), however, the climate impacts become similar for freshwater discharged from all locations of the GIS. The East Greenland current accelerates with time and becomes significantly faster when the freshwater is discharged from the north than from the south. Therefore, freshwater from the north is transported efficiently towards the south first and then circulates back to the the Nordic Seas, making its impact to the deepwater formation there similar to the freshwater discharged from the south. Our study demonstrates that if freshwater is injected into the ocean in a very localized form as in the real world, its ability to impact the deepwater formation evolves with time. At equilibrium state, the impact of freshwater from upstream of deepwater formation site is not necessarily larger than that from other locations, as obtained by relatively low-resolution models. This may have implication on the deglacial phase of glacial cycles, during which freshwater discharge often lasts for many hundreds of years, and often studied with low-resolution models.

Spin noise spectroscopy beyond thermal equilibrium and linear response.

PubMed

Glasenapp, P; Sinitsyn, N A; Yang, Luyi; Rickel, D G; Roy, D; Greilich, A; Bayer, M; Crooker, S A

2014-10-10

Per the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, the information obtained from spin fluctuation studies in thermal equilibrium is necessarily constrained by the system's linear response functions. However, by including weak radio frequency magnetic fields, we demonstrate that intrinsic and random spin fluctuations even in strictly unpolarized ensembles can reveal underlying patterns of correlation and coupling beyond linear response, and can be used to study nonequilibrium and even multiphoton coherent spin phenomena. We demonstrate this capability in a classical vapor of (41)K alkali atoms, where spin fluctuations alone directly reveal Rabi splittings, the formation of Mollow triplets and Autler-Townes doublets, ac Zeeman shifts, and even nonlinear multiphoton coherences.

Adaptive behaviour and multiple equilibrium states in a predator-prey model.

PubMed

Pimenov, Alexander; Kelly, Thomas C; Korobeinikov, Andrei; O'Callaghan, Michael J A; Rachinskii, Dmitrii

2015-05-01

There is evidence that multiple stable equilibrium states are possible in real-life ecological systems. Phenomenological mathematical models which exhibit such properties can be constructed rather straightforwardly. For instance, for a predator-prey system this result can be achieved through the use of non-monotonic functional response for the predator. However, while formal formulation of such a model is not a problem, the biological justification for such functional responses and models is usually inconclusive. In this note, we explore a conjecture that a multitude of equilibrium states can be caused by an adaptation of animal behaviour to changes of environmental conditions. In order to verify this hypothesis, we consider a simple predator-prey model, which is a straightforward extension of the classic Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. In this model, we made an intuitively transparent assumption that the prey can change a mode of behaviour in response to the pressure of predation, choosing either "safe" of "risky" (or "business as usual") behaviour. In order to avoid a situation where one of the modes gives an absolute advantage, we introduce the concept of the "cost of a policy" into the model. A simple conceptual two-dimensional predator-prey model, which is minimal with this property, and is not relying on odd functional responses, higher dimensionality or behaviour change for the predator, exhibits two stable co-existing equilibrium states with basins of attraction separated by a separatrix of a saddle point. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disentangling residence time and temperature sensitivity of microbial decomposition in a global soil carbon model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, J.-F.; Pitman, A. J.; Abramowitz, G.

2014-03-01

Recent studies have identified the first-order parameterization of microbial decomposition as a major source of uncertainty in simulations and projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. Here, we use a reduced complexity model representative of the current state-of-the-art parameterization of soil organic carbon decomposition. We undertake a systematic sensitivity analysis to disentangle the effect of the time-invariant baseline residence time (k) and the sensitvity of microbial decomposition to temperature (Q10) on soil carbon dynamics at regional and global scales. Our simulations produce a range in total soil carbon at equilibrium of ~ 592 to 2745 Pg C which is similar to the ~ 561 to 2938 Pg C range in pre-industrial soil carbon in models used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This range depends primarily on the value of k, although the impact of Q10 is not trivial at regional scales. As climate changes through the historical period, and into the future, k is primarily responsible for the magnitude of the response in soil carbon, whereas Q10 determines whether the soil remains a sink, or becomes a source in the future mostly by its effect on mid-latitudes carbon balance. If we restrict our simulations to those simulating total soil carbon stocks consistent with observations of current stocks, the projected range in total soil carbon change is reduced by 42% for the historical simulations and 45% for the future projections. However, while this observation-based selection dismisses outliers it does not increase confidence in the future sign of the soil carbon feedback. We conclude that despite this result, future estimates of soil carbon, and how soil carbon responds to climate change should be constrained by available observational data sets.

Disentangling residence time and temperature sensitivity of microbial decomposition in a global soil carbon model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, J.-F.; Pitman, A. J.; Abramowitz, G.

2014-12-01

Recent studies have identified the first-order representation of microbial decomposition as a major source of uncertainty in simulations and projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. Here, we use a reduced complexity model representative of current state-of-the-art models of soil organic carbon decomposition. We undertake a systematic sensitivity analysis to disentangle the effect of the time-invariant baseline residence time (k) and the sensitivity of microbial decomposition to temperature (Q10) on soil carbon dynamics at regional and global scales. Our simulations produce a range in total soil carbon at equilibrium of ~ 592 to 2745 Pg C, which is similar to the ~ 561 to 2938 Pg C range in pre-industrial soil carbon in models used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This range depends primarily on the value of k, although the impact of Q10 is not trivial at regional scales. As climate changes through the historical period, and into the future, k is primarily responsible for the magnitude of the response in soil carbon, whereas Q10 determines whether the soil remains a sink, or becomes a source in the future mostly by its effect on mid-latitude carbon balance. If we restrict our simulations to those simulating total soil carbon stocks consistent with observations of current stocks, the projected range in total soil carbon change is reduced by 42% for the historical simulations and 45% for the future projections. However, while this observation-based selection dismisses outliers, it does not increase confidence in the future sign of the soil carbon feedback. We conclude that despite this result, future estimates of soil carbon and how soil carbon responds to climate change should be more constrained by available data sets of carbon stocks.

Forest soil carbon oxidation state and oxidative ratio responses to elevated CO 2

DOE PAGES

Hockaday, William C.; Gallagher, Morgan E.; Masiello, Caroline A.; ...

2015-09-21

The oxidative ratio (OR) of the biosphere is the stoichiometric ratio (O 2/CO 2) of gas exchange by photosynthesis and respiration a key parameter in budgeting calculations of the land and ocean carbon sinks. Carbon cycle-climate feedbacks could alter the OR of the biosphere by affecting the quantity and quality of organic matter in plant biomass and soil carbon pools. Here, this study considers the effect of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO 2]) on the OR of a hardwood forest after nine growing seasons of Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment. We measured changes in the carbon oxidation state (C ox)more » of biomass and soil carbon pools as a proxy for the ecosystem OR. The OR of net primary production, 1.039, was not affected by elevated [CO 2]. However, the C ox of the soil carbon pool was 40% higher at elevated [CO 2], and the estimated OR values for soil respiration increased from 1.006 at ambient [CO 2] to 1.054 at elevated [CO 2]. A biochemical inventory of the soil organic matter ascribed the increases in C ox and OR to faster turnover of reduced substrates, lignin and lipids, at elevated [CO 2]. This implicates the heterotrophic soil community response to elevated [CO 2] as a driver of disequilibrium in the ecosystem OR. The oxidation of soil carbon pool constitutes an unexpected terrestrial O 2 sink. Carbon budgets constructed under the assumption of OR equilibrium would equate such a terrestrial O 2 sink to CO 2 uptake by the ocean. We find that the potential for climate-driven disequilibriua in the cycling of O 2 and CO 2 warrants further investigation.« less

An overview of patient safety climate in the VA.

PubMed

Hartmann, Christine W; Rosen, Amy K; Meterko, Mark; Shokeen, Priti; Zhao, Shibei; Singer, Sara; Falwell, Alyson; Gaba, David M

2008-08-01

To assess variation in safety climate across VA hospitals nationally. Data were collected from employees at 30 VA hospitals over a 6-month period using the Patient Safety Climate in Healthcare Organizations survey. We sampled 100 percent of senior managers and physicians and a random 10 percent of other employees. At 10 randomly selected hospitals, we sampled an additional 100 percent of employees working in units with intrinsically higher hazards (high-hazard units [HHUs]). Data were collected using an anonymous survey design. We received 4,547 responses (49 percent response rate). The percent problematic response--lower percent reflecting higher levels of patient safety climate--ranged from 12.0-23.7 percent across hospitals (mean=17.5 percent). Differences in safety climate emerged by management level, clinician status, and workgroup. Supervisors and front-line staff reported lower levels of safety climate than senior managers; clinician responses reflected lower levels of safety climate than those of nonclinicians; and responses of employees in HHUs reflected lower levels of safety climate than those of workers in other areas. This is the first systematic study of patient safety climate in VA hospitals. Findings indicate an overall positive safety climate across the VA, but there is room for improvement.

Comparison of the Marcus and Pekar partitions in the context of non-equilibrium, polarizable-continuum solvation models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

You, Zhi-Qiang; Herbert, John M., E-mail: herbert@chemistry.ohio-state.edu; Mewes, Jan-Michael

2015-11-28

The Marcus and Pekar partitions are common, alternative models to describe the non-equilibrium dielectric polarization response that accompanies instantaneous perturbation of a solute embedded in a dielectric continuum. Examples of such a perturbation include vertical electronic excitation and vertical ionization of a solution-phase molecule. Here, we provide a general derivation of the accompanying polarization response, for a quantum-mechanical solute described within the framework of a polarizable continuum model (PCM) of electrostatic solvation. Although the non-equilibrium free energy is formally equivalent within the two partitions, albeit partitioned differently into “fast” versus “slow” polarization contributions, discretization of the PCM integral equations failsmore » to preserve certain symmetries contained in these equations (except in the case of the conductor-like models or when the solute cavity is spherical), leading to alternative, non-equivalent matrix equations. Unlike the total equilibrium solvation energy, however, which can differ dramatically between different formulations, we demonstrate that the equivalence of the Marcus and Pekar partitions for the non-equilibrium solvation correction is preserved to high accuracy. Differences in vertical excitation and ionization energies are <0.2 eV (and often <0.01 eV), even for systems specifically selected to afford a large polarization response. Numerical results therefore support the interchangeability of the Marcus and Pekar partitions, but also caution against relying too much on the fast PCM charges for interpretive value, as these charges differ greatly between the two partitions, especially in polar solvents.« less

Research Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-21

USER GUIDE Research Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska SERDP Project...Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...forecast landscape change in response to projected changes in climate , fire regime, and fire management. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

Response-Guided Community Detection: Application to Climate Index Discovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bello, Gonzalo; Angus, Michael; Pedemane, Navya

Discovering climate indices-time series that summarize spatiotemporal climate patterns-is a key task in the climate science domain. In this work, we approach this task as a problem of response-guided community detection; that is, identifying communities in a graph associated with a response variable of interest. To this end, we propose a general strategy for response-guided community detection that explicitly incorporates information of the response variable during the community detection process, and introduce a graph representation of spatiotemporal data that leverages information from multiple variables. We apply our proposed methodology to the discovery of climate indices associated with seasonal rainfall variability.more » Our results suggest that our methodology is able to capture the underlying patterns known to be associated with the response variable of interest and to improve its predictability compared to existing methodologies for data-driven climate index discovery and official forecasts.« less

Linking Southwest U.S. Drought to the Hiatus in Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Quan, X. W.; Livneh, B.

2014-12-01

Weather and climate of the new millennium has been unkind to the Southwest United States. Precipitation has been deficient, especially compared to prior decades of the late 20thCentury. Temperatures have been consistently above historical averages. And drought conditions have prevailed for a period now stretching 15 years in duration. Impacts of these dry and warm conditions have included compromised health of forests and ecosystems, more wildfires, reduced water resources most notably the declining elevations of Lake Mead and Powell and substantially diminished annual flows in the Colorado River. The question remains open concerning the extent to which this protracted drought episode is strongly a symptom of human induced climate change. While the prolonged drought, including its recent regional expression over California, has been unusually severe relative to droughts of the 20thCentury, some droughts in the paleoclimate record were more severe. To be sure, various studies have detected the consequences of warming temperatures on the hydrologic cycle over the greater western United States, but the drought's severity has principally resulted from deficient rains, the cause for which has yet to been determined. Here we present results from analysis of historical climate simulations to determine the factors contributing to a protracted reduction in Southwest regional precipitation. A parallel set of 2000 year-long equilibrium coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments, one subjected to late 19th Century radiative forcing and a second subjected to early 21st Century radiative forcing, is used to explore attributable impacts of long-term anthropogenic climate change. Historical atmospheric climate simulations are also used to address the effects of the specific observed evolution of sea surface temperatures. These are characterized by appreciable natural variations, one feature of which has been a cooling in the tropical east Pacific during the last 15 years related to the hiatus. Results are presented that demonstrate a strong link of the Southwest drought to this hiatus condition of the world oceans, and intercomparison with the equilibrium experiments permits us to disentangle that factor from impacts of long term global warming.

Lake Vanda: A sentinel for climate change in the McMurdo Sound Region of Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castendyk, Devin N.; Obryk, Maciej K.; Leidman, Sasha Z.; Gooseff, Michael; Hawes, Ian

2016-09-01

Lake Vanda is a perennially ice-covered, meromictic, endorheic lake located in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, and an exceptional sentinel of climate change within the region. Lake levels rose 15 m over the past 68 years in response to climate-driven variability in ice-cover sublimation, meltwater production, and annual discharge of the Onyx River, the main source of water to the lake. Evidence from a new bathymetric map and water balance model combined with annual growth laminations in benthic mats suggest that the most recent filling trend began abruptly 80 years ago, in the early 1930s. This change increased lake volume by > 50%, triggered the formation of a new, upper, thermohaline convection cell, and cooled the lower convection cell by at least 2 °C and the bottom-most waters by at > 4 °C. Additionally, the depth of the deep chlorophyll a maximum rose by > 2 m, and deep-growing benthic algal mats declined while shallow benthic mats colonized freshly inundated areas. We attribute changes in hydrology to regional variations in air flow related to the strength and position of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) pressure system which have increased the frequency of down-valley, föhn winds associated with surface air temperature warming in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. The ASL has also been implicated in the recent warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and provides a common link for climate-related change on opposite sides of the continent. If this trend persists, Lake Vanda should continue to rise and cool over the next 200 years until a new equilibrium lake level is achieved. Most likely, future lake rise will lead to isothermal conditions not conducive to thermohaline convection, resulting in a drastically different physical, biogeochemical, and biological structure than observed today.

Critical behavior within 20 fs drives the out-of-equilibrium laser-induced magnetic phase transition in nickel

PubMed Central

Tengdin, Phoebe; You, Wenjing; Chen, Cong; Shi, Xun; Zusin, Dmitriy; Zhang, Yingchao; Gentry, Christian; Blonsky, Adam; Keller, Mark; Oppeneer, Peter M.; Kapteyn, Henry C.; Tao, Zhensheng; Murnane, Margaret M.

2018-01-01

It has long been known that ferromagnets undergo a phase transition from ferromagnetic to paramagnetic at the Curie temperature, associated with critical phenomena such as a divergence in the heat capacity. A ferromagnet can also be transiently demagnetized by heating it with an ultrafast laser pulse. However, to date, the connection between out-of-equilibrium and equilibrium phase transitions, or how fast the out-of-equilibrium phase transitions can proceed, was not known. By combining time- and angle-resolved photoemission with time-resolved transverse magneto-optical Kerr spectroscopies, we show that the same critical behavior also governs the ultrafast magnetic phase transition in nickel. This is evidenced by several observations. First, we observe a divergence of the transient heat capacity of the electron spin system preceding material demagnetization. Second, when the electron temperature is transiently driven above the Curie temperature, we observe an extremely rapid change in the material response: The spin system absorbs sufficient energy within the first 20 fs to subsequently proceed through the phase transition, whereas demagnetization and the collapse of the exchange splitting occur on much longer, fluence-independent time scales of ~176 fs. Third, we find that the transient electron temperature alone dictates the magnetic response. Our results are important because they connect the out-of-equilibrium material behavior to the strongly coupled equilibrium behavior and uncover a new time scale in the process of ultrafast demagnetization. PMID:29511738

Critical behavior within 20 fs drives the out-of-equilibrium laser-induced magnetic phase transition in nickel.

PubMed

Tengdin, Phoebe; You, Wenjing; Chen, Cong; Shi, Xun; Zusin, Dmitriy; Zhang, Yingchao; Gentry, Christian; Blonsky, Adam; Keller, Mark; Oppeneer, Peter M; Kapteyn, Henry C; Tao, Zhensheng; Murnane, Margaret M

2018-03-01

It has long been known that ferromagnets undergo a phase transition from ferromagnetic to paramagnetic at the Curie temperature, associated with critical phenomena such as a divergence in the heat capacity. A ferromagnet can also be transiently demagnetized by heating it with an ultrafast laser pulse. However, to date, the connection between out-of-equilibrium and equilibrium phase transitions, or how fast the out-of-equilibrium phase transitions can proceed, was not known. By combining time- and angle-resolved photoemission with time-resolved transverse magneto-optical Kerr spectroscopies, we show that the same critical behavior also governs the ultrafast magnetic phase transition in nickel. This is evidenced by several observations. First, we observe a divergence of the transient heat capacity of the electron spin system preceding material demagnetization. Second, when the electron temperature is transiently driven above the Curie temperature, we observe an extremely rapid change in the material response: The spin system absorbs sufficient energy within the first 20 fs to subsequently proceed through the phase transition, whereas demagnetization and the collapse of the exchange splitting occur on much longer, fluence-independent time scales of ~176 fs. Third, we find that the transient electron temperature alone dictates the magnetic response. Our results are important because they connect the out-of-equilibrium material behavior to the strongly coupled equilibrium behavior and uncover a new time scale in the process of ultrafast demagnetization.

The Adverse Effects of Le Châtelier's Principle on Teacher Understanding of Chemical Equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Derek

2009-04-01

Although the scientific inadequacy of Le Châtelier's principle has long been documented in the literature, the principle is still treated as a central concept of chemical equilibrium by textbook writers and teachers in many countries. In the past, researchers' interest has focused on student misconceptions about chemical equilibrium and has neglected teacher misconceptions. This study aimed to determine how Le Châtelier's principle adversely affects teachers' ability to solve chemical equilibrium problems. This area of research is critically important because teachers cannot help their students understand what they themselves do not understand. In this study, a misconception test was developed and administered to a sample of 33 secondary chemistry teachers in Hong Kong. The test consisted of three open-ended chemical equilibrium questions. Analysis of teacher responses revealed that most of the 33 teachers failed the test as they relied on Le Châtelier's principle rather than the equilibrium law to tackle the three chemical equilibrium problems. Teachers' misconceptions about chemical equilibrium were categorized. Implications of these findings for chemistry teacher education and selection of curriculum content for school chemistry are discussed.

Is the Reaction Equilibrium Composition in Non-ideal Mixtures Uniquely Determined by the Initial Composition?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sefcik, Jan

1998-05-01

Reaction equilibrium can be mathematically described by the equilibrium equation and the reaction equilibrium composition can be calculated by solving this equation. It can be proved by non-elementary thermodynamic arguments that for a generic system with given initial composition, temperature and pressure there is a unique stable equilibrium state corresponding to the global minimum of the Gibbs free energy function. However, when the concept of equilibrium is introduced in undergraduate chemistry and chemical engineering courses, such arguments are generally not accessible. When there is a single reaction equilibrium among mixture components and the components form an ideal mixture, it has been demonstrated by a simple, elegant mathematical argument that there is a unique composition satisfying the equilibrium equation. It has been also suggested that this particular argument extends to non-ideal mixtures by simply incorporating activity coefficients. We show that the argument extension to non-ideal systems is not generally valid. Increasing non-ideality can result in non-monotonicity of the function crucial for the simple uniqueness argument, and only later it leads to non-uniqueness and hence phase separation. The main feature responsible for this is a composition dependence of activity coefficients in non-ideal mixtures.

Vegetation-rainfall feedbacks across the Sahel: a combined observational and modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2016-12-01

The Sahel rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability. Past modeling studies have concluded that the Sahel rainfall variability is primarily driven by oceanic forcings and amplified by land-atmosphere interactions. However, the relative importance of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers has never been assessed from observations. The current understanding of vegetation's impacts on climate, i.e. positive vegetation-rainfall feedback through the albedo, moisture, and momentum mechanisms, comes from untested models. Neither the positive vegetation-rainfall feedback, nor the underlying mechanisms, has been fully resolved in observations. The current study fills the knowledge gap about the observed vegetation-rainfall feedbacks, through the application of the multivariate statistical method Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) to observational data. According to GEFA, the observed oceanic impacts dominate over terrestrial impacts on Sahel rainfall, except in the post-monsoon period. Positive leaf area index (LAI) anomalies favor an extended, wetter monsoon across the Sahel, largely due to moisture recycling. The albedo mechanism is not responsible for this positive vegetation feedback on the seasonal-interannual time scale, which is too short for a grass-desert transition. A low-level stabilization and subsidence is observed in response to increased LAI - potentially responsible for a negative vegetation-rainfall feedback. However, the positive moisture feedback overwhelms the negative momentum feedback, resulting in an observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback. We further applied GEFA to a fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) control run, as an example of evaluating climate models against the GEFA-based observational benchmark. In contrast to the observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks, CESM simulates a negative vegetation-rainfall feedback across Sahel, peaking in the pre-monsoon season. The simulated negative feedback is largely due to the low-level stabilization caused by increased LAI. Positive moisture feedback is present in the CESM simulation, but an order weaker than the observed and weaker than the negative momentum feedback, thereby leading to the simulated negative vegetation-rainfall feedbacks.

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.

PubMed

Kissling, W D; Field, R; Korntheuer, H; Heyder, U; Böhning-Gaese, K

2010-07-12

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.

Modelling the response of a Himalayan watershed to climate change: new insights from linking high resolution in-situ data and remote sensing with an advanced simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.; Immerzeel, W.

2014-12-01

In high-elevation watersheds of the Himalayan region the correct representation of the internal states and process dynamics in glacio-hydrological models can often not be verified due to missing in-situ measurements. The aim of this study is to provide a fundamental understanding of the hydrology of a Himalayan watershed through the systematic integration of in-situ data in a glacio-hydrological model. We use ground data from the upper Langtang valley in Nepal combined with high resolution satellite data to understand specific processes and test the application of new model components specifically developed. We apply a new model for ablation under debris that takes into account the varying effect of debris thickness on melt rates. A novel approach is tested to reconstruct spatial fields of debris thickness through combination of energy balance modelling, UAV-derived geodetic mass balance and statistical techniques. The systematic integration of in-situ data for model calibration enables the application of a state-of-the art model with many parameters to model glacier evolution and catchment runoff in spite of the lack of continuous long-term historical records. It allows drawing conclusions on the importance of processes that have been suggested as being relevant but never quantified before. The simulations show that 8.7% of total water inputs originate from sub-debris ice melt. 4.5% originate from melted avalanched snow. These components can be locally much more important, since the spatial variability of processes within the valley is high. The model is then used to simulate the response of the catchment to climate change. We show that climate warming leads to an increase in future icemelt and a peak in glacier runoff by mid-century. The increase in total icemelt is due to higher melt rates and large areas that are currently located above the equilibrium line altitude additionally that will contribute to melt. Catchment runoff will not reach below current levels throughout the 21st century due to precipitation increases. Debris covered glacier area will disappear at a slower pace than non-debris covered area. Still, due to the relative climate insensitivity of melt rates below thick debris, the contribution of sub-debris icemelt to runoff will not exceed 10% at all times.

The changing contribution of top-down and bottom-up limitation of mesopredators during 220 years of land use and climate change.

PubMed

Pasanen-Mortensen, Marianne; Elmhagen, Bodil; Lindén, Harto; Bergström, Roger; Wallgren, Märtha; van der Velde, Ype; Cousins, Sara A O

2017-05-01

Apex predators may buffer bottom-up driven ecosystem change, as top-down suppression may dampen herbivore and mesopredator responses to increased resource availability. However, theory suggests that for this buffering capacity to be realized, the equilibrium abundance of apex predators must increase. This raises the question: will apex predators maintain herbivore/mesopredator limitation, if bottom-up change relaxes resource constraints? Here, we explore changes in mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) abundance over 220 years in response to eradication and recovery of an apex predator (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx), and changes in land use and climate which are linked to resource availability. A three-step approach was used. First, recent data from Finland and Sweden were modelled to estimate linear effects of lynx density, land use and winter temperature on fox density. Second, lynx density, land use and winter temperature was estimated in a 22 650 km 2 focal area in boreal and boreo-nemoral Sweden in the years 1830, 1920, 2010 and 2050. Third, the models and estimates were used to project historic and future fox densities in the focal area. Projected fox density was lowest in 1830 when lynx density was high, winters cold and the proportion of cropland low. Fox density peaked in 1920 due to lynx eradication, a mesopredator release boosted by favourable bottom-up changes - milder winters and cropland expansion. By 2010, lynx recolonization had reduced fox density, but it remained higher than in 1830, partly due to the bottom-up changes. Comparing 1830 to 2010, the contribution of top-down limitation decreased, while environment enrichment relaxed bottom-up limitation. Future scenarios indicated that by 2050, lynx density would have to increase by 79% to compensate for a projected climate-driven increase in fox density. We highlight that although top-down limitation in theory can buffer bottom-up change, this requires compensatory changes in apex predator abundance. Hence apex predator recolonization/recovery to historical levels would not be sufficient to compensate for widespread changes in climate and land use, which have relaxed the resource constraints for many herbivores and mesopredators. Variation in bottom-up conditions may also contribute to context dependence in apex predator effects. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

qtcm 0.1.2: A Python Implementation of the Neelin-Zeng Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J. W.-B.

2008-10-01

Historically, climate models have been developed incrementally and in compiled languages like Fortran. While the use of legacy compiled languages results in fast, time-tested code, the resulting model is limited in its modularity and cannot take advantage of functionality available with modern computer languages. Here we describe an effort at using the open-source, object-oriented language Python to create more flexible climate models: the package qtcm, a Python implementation of the intermediate-level Neelin-Zeng Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation model (QTCM1) of the atmosphere. The qtcm package retains the core numerics of QTCM1, written in Fortran to optimize model performance, but uses Python structures and utilities to wrap the QTCM1 Fortran routines and manage model execution. The resulting "mixed language" modeling package allows order and choice of subroutine execution to be altered at run time, and model analysis and visualization to be integrated in interactively with model execution at run time. This flexibility facilitates more complex scientific analysis using less complex code than would be possible using traditional languages alone, and provides tools to transform the traditional "formulate hypothesis → write and test code → run model → analyze results" sequence into a feedback loop that can be executed automatically by the computer.

qtcm 0.1.2: a Python implementation of the Neelin-Zeng Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J. W.-B.

2009-02-01

Historically, climate models have been developed incrementally and in compiled languages like Fortran. While the use of legacy compiled languages results in fast, time-tested code, the resulting model is limited in its modularity and cannot take advantage of functionality available with modern computer languages. Here we describe an effort at using the open-source, object-oriented language Python to create more flexible climate models: the package qtcm, a Python implementation of the intermediate-level Neelin-Zeng Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation model (QTCM1) of the atmosphere. The qtcm package retains the core numerics of QTCM1, written in Fortran to optimize model performance, but uses Python structures and utilities to wrap the QTCM1 Fortran routines and manage model execution. The resulting "mixed language" modeling package allows order and choice of subroutine execution to be altered at run time, and model analysis and visualization to be integrated in interactively with model execution at run time. This flexibility facilitates more complex scientific analysis using less complex code than would be possible using traditional languages alone, and provides tools to transform the traditional "formulate hypothesis → write and test code → run model → analyze results" sequence into a feedback loop that can be executed automatically by the computer.

Hydrographic biases in global coupled climate models and their relation to the meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plancherel, Yves

2015-01-01

Comparison of the volumetric θ/S distribution of models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) indicates that these models differ widely in their ability to represent the thermohaline properties of water masses. Relationships between features of the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic mean state of these models and aspects of their overturning circulations are investigated. This is achieved quantitatively with the help of seven diagnostic hydrographic stations. These few stations were specifically selected to provide a minimalist schematic of the global water mass system. Relationships between hydrographic conditions in the North Atlantic measured with a subset of these stations suggest that hydrographic properties in the subpolar North Atlantic are set by the circulation field of each model, pointing towards deficiencies in the models ability to resolve the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system as a major limitation. Since diapycnal mixing and viscosity parameterizations differ across CMIP3 models and exert a strong control on the overturning, it is likely that these architectural differences ultimately explain the main across-model differences in overturning circulation, temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic. The analysis of properties across the quasi-equilibrium states of the CMIP3 models agrees with previously reported relationships between meridional steric height gradients or horizontal density contrasts at depth and the strength of the deep water cell. Robust relationships are also found in the Southern Ocean linking measures of vertical stratification with the strength of the abyssal circulations across the CMIP3 models. Consistent correlations between aspects of the quasi-equilibrium hydrography in the Southern Ocean and the sensitivity of the abyssal cell to increasing radiative forcing by 2100 were found. Using these relations in conjunction with modern hydrographic observations to interpolate the fate of the abyssal cell suggests that the Southern abyssal cell may decrease by roughly 20 % by the end of the century. Similar systematic relationships between the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic states of the models and the sensitivity of their Atlantic deep water cell could not be found.

Degree of coupling and efficiency of energy converters far-from-equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vroylandt, Hadrien; Lacoste, David; Verley, Gatien

2018-02-01

In this paper, we introduce a real symmetric and positive semi-definite matrix, which we call the non-equilibrium conductance matrix, and which generalizes the Onsager response matrix for a system in a non-equilibrium stationary state. We then express the thermodynamic efficiency in terms of the coefficients of this matrix using a parametrization similar to the one used near equilibrium. This framework, then valid arbitrarily far from equilibrium allows to set bounds on the thermodynamic efficiency by a universal function depending only on the degree of coupling between input and output currents. It also leads to new general power-efficiency trade-offs valid for macroscopic machines that are compared to trade-offs previously obtained from uncertainty relations. We illustrate our results on an unicycle heat to heat converter and on a discrete model of a molecular motor.

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

PubMed

Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

2017-07-01

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Chen; Lai, Shiyu; Gao, Xueping; Xu, Liping

2015-10-01

To study the potential effects of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China, the field data analysis method is applied to data collected over a given monitoring period. Nine water quality parameters (water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen) and three climate indicators for 20 years (1992-2011) are considered. The annual trends exhibit significant trends with respect to certain water quality and climate parameters. Five parameters exhibit significant seasonality differences in the monthly means between the two decades (1992-2001 and 2002-2011) of the monitoring period. Non-parametric regression of the statistical analyses is performed to explore potential key climate drivers of water quality in the reservoir. The results indicate that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive impacts on water quality. However, an extremely cold spring and high wind speed are likely to affect the self-stabilising equilibrium states of the reservoir, which requires attention in the future. The results suggest that land use changes have important impact on nitrogen load. This study provides useful information regarding the potential effects of climate change on water quality in developing countries.

Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?

PubMed

Freeman, Mark C; Wagner, Gernot; Zeckhauser, Richard J

2015-11-28

Climate change is real and dangerous. Exactly how bad it will get, however, is uncertain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant for estimates of one of the key parameters: equilibrium climate sensitivity--how eventual temperatures will react as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double. Despite significant advances in climate science and increased confidence in the accuracy of the range itself, the 'likely' range has been 1.5-4.5°C for over three decades. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) narrowed it to 2-4.5°C, only to reverse its decision in 2013, reinstating the prior range. In addition, the 2013 IPCC report removed prior mention of 3°C as the 'best estimate'. We interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC decision to lower the bottom of the range and excise a best estimate. Intuitively, it might seem that a lower bottom would be good news. Here we ask: when might apparently good news about climate sensitivity in fact be bad news in the sense that it lowers societal well-being? The lowered bottom value also implies higher uncertainty about the temperature increase, definitely bad news. Under reasonable assumptions, both the lowering of the lower bound and the removal of the 'best estimate' may well be bad news. © 2015 The Author(s).

Significant Features Found in Simulated Tropical Climates Using a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.

2000-01-01

Cloud resolving model (CRM) has widely been used in recent years for simulations involving studies of radiative-convective systems and their role in determining the tropical regional climate. The growing popularity of CRMs usage can be credited for their inclusion of crucial and realistic features such like explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit radiative-convective interaction. For example, by using a two-dimensional cloud model with radiative-convective interaction process, found a QBO-like (quasibiennial oscillation) oscillation of mean zonal wind that affected the convective system. Accordingly, the model-generated rain band corresponding to convective activity propagated in the direction of the low-level zonal mean winds; however, the precipitation became "localized" (limited within a small portion of the domain) as zonal mean winds were removed. Two other CRM simulations by S94 and Grabowski et al. (1996, hereafter G96), respectively that produced distinctive quasi-equilibrium ("climate") states on both tropical water and energy, i.e., a cold/dry state in S94 and a warm/wet state in G96, have later been investigated by T99. They found that the pattern of the imposed large-scale horizontal wind and the magnitude of the imposed surface fluxes were the two crucial mechanisms in determining the tropical climate states. The warm/wet climate was found associated with prescribed strong surface winds, or with maintained strong vertical wind shears that well-organized convective systems prevailed. On the other hand, the cold/dry climate was produced due to imposed weak surface winds and weak wind shears throughout a vertically mixing process by convection. In this study, considered as a sequel of T99, the model simulations to be presented are generally similar to those of T99 (where a detailed model setup can be found), except for a more detailed discussion along with few more simulated experiments. There are twelve major experiments chosen for presentations that are introduced in section two. Several significant feature analyses regarding the rainfall properties, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), cloud-scale eddies, the stability issue, the convective system propagation, relative humidity, and the effect on the quasi-equilibrium state by the imposed constant. radiation or constant surface fluxes, and etc. will be presented in the meeting. However, only three of the subjects are discussed in section three. A brief summary is concluded in the end section.

Pleistocene tropical Pacific temperature sensitivity to radiative greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyck, K. A.; Ravelo, A. C.

2011-12-01

How high will Earth's global average surface temperature ultimately rise as greenhouse gas concentrations increase in the future? One way to tackle this question is to compare contemporaneous temperature and greenhouse gas concentration data from paleoclimate records, while considering that other radiative forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in the amount and distribution of incoming solar radiation associated with changes in the Earth's orbital configuration) also contribute to surface temperature change. Since the sensitivity of surface temperature varies with location and latitude, here we choose a central location representative of the west Pacific warm pool, far from upwelling regions or surface temperature gradients in order to minimize climate feedbacks associated with high-latitude regions or oceanic dynamics. The 'steady-state' or long-term temperature change associated with greenhouse gas radiative forcing is often labeled as equilibrium (or 'Earth system') climate sensitivity to the doubling of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. Climate models suggest that Earth system sensitivity does not change dramatically over times when CO2 was lower or higher than the modern atmospheric value. Thus, in our investigation of the changes in tropical SST, from the glacial to interglacial states when greenhouse gas forcing nearly doubled, we use Late Pleistocene paleoclimate records to constrain earth system sensitivity for the tropics. Here we use Mg/Ca-paleothermometry using the foraminifera G. ruber from ODP Site 871 from the past 500 kyr in the western Pacific warm pool to estimate tropical Pacific equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations to be ~4°C. This tropical SST sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing is ~1-2°C higher than that predicted by climate models of past glacial periods or future warming for the tropical Pacific. Equatorial Pacific SST sensitivity may be higher than predicted by models for a number of reasons. First, models may not be adequately representing long-term deep ocean feedbacks. Second, models may incorrectly parameterize tropical cloud (or other short-term) feedback processes. Lastly, either paleo-temperature or radiative forcing may have been incorrectly estimated (e.g. through calibration of paleoclimate evidence for temperature change). Since theory suggests that surface temperature in the high latitudes is more sensitive to radiative forcing changes than surface temperature in the tropics, the results of this study also imply that globally averaged Earth system sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations may be higher than most climate models predict.

Nucleation of Waterfalls at Fault Scarps Temporarily Shielded By Alluvial Fan Aggradation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malatesta, L. C.; Lamb, M. P.

2014-12-01

Waterfalls are important components of mountain river systems and they can serve as an agent to transfer tectonic, climatic, or authigenic signals upstream through a catchment. Retreating waterfalls lower the local base level of the adjacent hillslopes, and temporarily increase sediment delivery to the fluvial system. Their creation is often attributed to seismic ruptures, lithological boundaries, or the coalescence of multiple smaller steps. We explore here a mechanism for the nucleation of waterfalls that does not rely on sudden seismic slip but on the build-up of accumulated slip during periods of fault burial by fluvial aggradation. Alluvial fans are common features at the front of mountain ranges bound by normal or thrust faults. Climate change or internal forcing in the mountain catchment modifies the equilibrium slope of alluvial fans. When alluvial fans aggrade, they shield the active fault scarp from fluvial erosion allowing the scarp to grow undisturbed. The scarp may then be exposed when the channel incises into the fan exposing a new bedrock waterfall. We explore this mechanism analytically and using a numerical model for bedrock river incision and sediment deposition. We find that the creation of waterfalls by scarp burial is limited by three distinct timescales: 1) the critical timescale for the scarp to grow to the burial height, 2) the timescale of alluvial re-grading of the fan, and 3) the timescale of the external or internal forcing, such as climate change. The height of the waterfall is controlled by i) the difference in equilibrium alluvial-fan slopes, ii) the ratio of the respective fan and catchment sizes, iii) the catchment wide denudation rate, and iv) the fault slip rate. We test whether an individual waterfall could be produced by alluvial shielding of a scarp, and identify the tectonic, climatic, or authigenic nature of waterfalls using example field sites in the southwest United States.

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

Phylogenetic conservatism and trait correlates of spring phenological responses to climate change in northeast China.

PubMed

Du, Yanjun; Chen, Jingru; Willis, Charles G; Zhou, Zhiqiang; Liu, Tong; Dai, Wujun; Zhao, Yuan; Ma, Keping

2017-09-01

Climate change has resulted in major changes in plant phenology across the globe that includes leaf-out date and flowering time. The ability of species to respond to climate change, in part, depends on their response to climate as a phenological cue in general. Species that are not phenologically responsive may suffer in the face of continued climate change. Comparative studies of phenology have found phylogeny to be a reliable predictor of mean leaf-out date and flowering time at both the local and global scales. This is less true for flowering time response (i.e., the correlation between phenological timing and climate factors), while no study to date has explored whether the response of leaf-out date to climate factors exhibits phylogenetic signal. We used a 52-year observational phenological dataset for 52 woody species from the Forest Botanical Garden of Heilongjiang Province, China, to test phylogenetic signal in leaf-out date and flowering time, as well as, the response of these two phenological traits to both temperature and winter precipitation. Leaf-out date and flowering time were significantly responsive to temperature for most species, advancing, on average, 3.11 and 2.87 day/°C, respectively. Both leaf-out and flowering, and their responses to temperature exhibited significant phylogenetic signals. The response of leaf-out date to precipitation exhibited no phylogenetic signal, while flowering time response to precipitation did. Native species tended to have a weaker flowering response to temperature than non-native species. Earlier leaf-out species tended to have a greater response to winter precipitation. This study is the first to assess phylogenetic signal of leaf-out response to climate change, which suggests, that climate change has the potential to shape the plant communities, not only through flowering sensitivity, but also through leaf-out sensitivity.

University Policies under Varying Market Conditions: The Training of Electrical Engineers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eckstein, Zvi; And Others

1988-01-01

Analyzes an Israeli university's problem in optimizing the quality and quantity of electrical engineers in response to fluctuating enrollment. An equilibrium model considers the effect of students' occupation choice and the university's decision on the current and future demand and supply of engineers, in order to predict the equilibrium number of…

Slip slidin' away: A post-glacial environmental history of the Waipaoa River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, Basil; Rosser, Brenda J.

2018-04-01

The dramatic changes that occurred to the post-glacial landscape in the headwaters of the Waipaoa River basin are a consequence of perturbations about the equilibrium that exists between the rate of tectonic uplift and fluvial incision. At times when the amount of coarse sediment delivered to channels exceeds the capacity of streams to remove it, the channel bed rises at the rate of tectonic uplift. Once bedload overcapacity is replaced by undercapacity and the alluvial cover is depleted, streams reestablish contact with bedrock and recuperate the time lost to fluvial incision. The first major perturbation occurred during the final phase of the last glaciation (ca. 33-17.5 cal. ka), when aggradation was driven by a climate-forced variation in the relative supplies of sediment and water. We suggest that the subsequent transformation of channels in the headwaters of the Waipaoa River basin, from alluvial to bedrock, occurred as the atmospheric and oceanic circulation converged on their contemporary patterns ca. 12 cal. ka. A second major perturbation that continues to the present began ca. 1910-1912 CE, when a massive increase in sediment load was accompanied by a modest increase in water discharge after the native vegetation cover in the headwaters was replaced by pasture. The processes of terrace creation and incision are inherently unsteady, and in five interim cases incision was arrested by a transient increase in the thickness of the alluvial cover that was a response to climatic forcing. Events that disrupted the native vegetation cover in the headwaters also modulated patterns of sediment dispersal and accumulation in other parts of the fluvial system and caused rapid, storm-driven infilling of the Poverty Bay Flats. Tectonic subsidence dictates the course of the Waipaoa River across Poverty Bay Flats which, because the modern rate of floodplain construction by vertical accretion is rapid relative to the amount of destruction by lateral channel migration, has remained virtually unchanged for the past 100 years. During this time the channel assumed a narrower, deeper form that is in equilibrium with the contemporary supply of sediment and hydraulic regime.

Tool Belts: Latitudinal-Belt Predictions for the Persistence of Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willenbring, Jane; Brocard, Gilles

2016-04-01

The ability of rivers to cut through rock and re-establish equilibrium sets the pace of landscape response to uplift. Because of associations between tectonics, erosion, and weathering, high rates of rock uplift may initiate a cascade of processes that are linked to high rates of weathering and eventually sequestration of CO2 over geologic timescales. How long does it take to completely change the topographic form after uplift and where on Earth do relict landscapes persist despite uplift? Large expanses of subdued landscapes are common at high elevation in mountain ranges. Preservation of subdued fragments amongst steeply dissected regions can therefore be a simple matter of chance, reflecting the time it takes for dissection to remove any remaining parcel of the pre-existing topography after a tectonic perturbation. Some of these relicts may, however, possess characteristics - often a product of the climate - that make them intrinsically resistant to dissection. One common mode of conversion of a subdued landscape into a deeply dissected one is the propagation of upstream-migrating erosion waves that transmit the signal of uplift and base level lowering across entire landscapes. Following a shift in tectonic forcing, the Earth's surface progressively adjusts its topographic form over millions of years, seeking to re-establish equilibrium with the new forcing. Here, we show that a high degree of weathering leading to smaller average soil grains at the surface hinders the capacity of rivers to incise. We show that globally, rates of cosmogenic nuclide-derived denudation rates fall into latitudinal belts with (1) low rates of denudation in areas with high temperatures and high precipitation where rock fragments do not persist at the soil surface, (2) high rates of denudation at mid-latitudes where rock fragments exist and are carried efficiently by the river flow, and (3) low rates of denudation at high latitudes where large grains at the surface inhibit channelized flow. We hypothesize that climate sets the pace for landscape change through a balance between slope and grain size. This process acts as a governor on flux of weathering products to the oceans.

Processes governing the temperature structure of the tropical tropopause layer (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birner, T.

2013-12-01

The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is among the most important but least understood regions of the global climate system. The TTL sets the boundary condition for atmospheric tracers entering the stratosphere. Specifically, TTL temperatures control stratospheric water vapor concentrations, which play a key role in the radiative budget of the entire stratosphere with implications for tropospheric and surface climate. The TTL shows a curious stratification structure: temperature continues to decrease beyond the level of main convective outflow (~200 hPa) up to the cold point tropopause (~100 hPa), but TTL lapse rates are smaller than in the upper troposphere. A cold point tropopause well separated from the level of main convective outflow requires TTL cooling which may be the result of: 1) the detailed radiative balance in the TTL, 2) large-scale upwelling (forced by extratropical or tropical waves), 3) the large-scale hydrostatic response aloft deep convective heating, 4) overshooting convection, 5) breaking gravity waves. All of these processes may act in isolation or combine to produce the observed TTL temperature structure. Here, a critical discussion of these processes / mechanisms and their role in lifting the cold point tropopause above the level of main convective outflow is presented. Results are based on idealized radiative-convective equilibrium model simulations, contrasting single-column with cloud-resolving simulations, as well on simulations with chemistry-climate models and reanalysis data. While all of the above processes are capable of producing a TTL-like region in isolation, their combination is found to produce important feedbacks. In particular, both water vapor and ozone are found to have strong radiative effects on TTL temperatures, highlighting important feedbacks between transport circulations setting temperatures and tracer structures and the resulting tracer structures in turn affecting temperatures.

How and when to terminate the Pleistocene ice ages?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Kawamura, K.; Takahashi, K.; Raymo, M. E.; Okuno, J.; Blatter, H.

2015-12-01

Climate change with wax and wane of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheet occurred in the past 800 thousand years characterized by 100 thousand year cycle with a large amplitude of sawtooth pattern, following a transition from a period of 40 thousand years cycle with small amplitude of ice sheet change at about 1 million years ago. Although the importance of insolation as the ultimate driver is now appreciated, the mechanism what determines timing and strength of terminations are far from clearly understood. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. We discuss further the mechanism which determine the timing of ice age terminations by examining the role of astronomical forcing and change of atmospheric carbon dioxide contents through sensitivity experiments and comparison of several ice age cycles with different settings of astronomical forcings.

Lake volume monitoring from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crétaux, Jean-Francois; Abarca Del Rio, Rodrigo; Berge-Nguyen, Muriel; Arsen, Adalbert; Drolon, Vanessa; Maisongrande, Philippe

2016-04-01

Lakes are integrator of environmental changes occurring at regional to global scale and present a high variety of behaviors on a variety of time scales (cyclic and secular) depending on the climate conditions and their morphology. In addition their crucial importance as water stocks and retaining, given the significant environment changes occurring worldwide at many anthropocentric levels, has increased the necessity of monitoring all its morphodynamics characteristics, say water level, surface (water contour) and volume. The satellite altimetry and satellite imagery together are now widely used for the calculation of lakes and reservoirs water storage changes worldwide. However strategies and algorithms to calculate these characteristics are not straightforward and need development of specific approaches. We intend to present a review of some of these methodologies by using the lakes over the Tibetan Plateau to illustrate some critical aspects and issues (technical and scientific) linked with the survey of climate changes impacts on surface waters from remote sensing data. Many authors have measured water variations using the short period of remote sensing measurements available, although time series are probably too short to lead to definitive conclusions to link these results directly with the framework of climate changes. Indeed, many processes beyond the observations are still uncertain, for example the influence of morphology of the lakes. The time response for a lake to reach new state of equilibrium is one of the key aspects often neglected in the current literature. Observations over long period of time, therein maintaining a constellation of comprehensive and complementary satellite missions with a continuity of services over decades, especially when ground gauges network is too limited is therefore a necessity. In addition, the design of future satellite missions with new instrumental concepts (e.g. SAR, SARin, Ka band altimetry, Ka interferometry) is also suitable for complete monitoring of continental waters.

Abrupt climate change and extinction events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowley, Thomas J.

1988-01-01

There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds

Treesearch

Martin Wilmking; Glenn P. Juday; Valerie A. Barber; Harold S.J. Zald

2004-01-01

Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth-climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely...

Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoming

Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate. Motivated by the fact that natural variability of the atmosphere could obscure the signal of anthropogenic warming on time scales of years to decades, the large scale variability of the atmosphere is also studied. Analysis using simulations in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project reveals that the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) does not have a stable spatial pattern when 50-year long segments of data are used to calculate it. Some segments of data result in NAM-like variability with a very strong North Pacific center of action, while in some others it exhibits a more symmetric structure, with North Pacific and Euro-Atlantic centers of comparable strength. Perhaps somewhat puzzling, the NAM's North Pacific center of action is found to have a strengthening trend under anthropogenic warming. Lastly, the large-scale character of an atmosphere in rotating Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE) is studied, using a global atmospheric model with prescribed globally uniform sea surface temperature and no insolation. In such an equilibrium state, numerous tropical cyclone-like vortices develop in the extratropics, which move slowly poleward and westward. The typical spacing of simulated tropical cyclone-like vortices is comparable to the Rossby radius of deformation, while the production of available potential energy is at a scale slightly smaller than that of the vortices. It is hypothesized that the growth of tropical cyclone-like vortices is driven by the self-aggregation of convection, while baroclinic instability destabilizes any vortices that grow significantly larger than the deformation radius. A weak Hadley circulation dominates in the deep tropics, and an eastward-propagating wavenumber one MJO-like mode with a period of 30 to 40 days develops along the equator.

Adaptive Equilibrium Regulation: A Balancing Act in Two Timescales

PubMed Central

Boker, Steven M.

2015-01-01

An equilibrium involves a balancing of forces. Just as one maintains upright posture in standing or walking, many self-regulatory and interpersonal behaviors can be framed as a balancing act between an ever changing environment and within-person processes. The emerging balance between person and environment, the equilibria, are dynamic and adaptive in response to development and learning. A distinction is made between equilibrium achieved solely due to a short timescale balancing of forces and a longer timescale preferred equilibrium which we define as a state towards which the system slowly adapts. Together, these are developed into a framework that this article calls Adaptive Equilibrium Regulation (ÆR), which separates a regulatory process into two timescales: a faster regulation that automatically balances forces and a slower timescale adaptation process that reconfigures the fast regulation so as to move the system towards its preferred equilibrium when an environmental force persists over the longer timescale. This way of thinking leads to novel models for the interplay between multiple timescales of behavior, learning, and development. PMID:27066197

Climate Effect of Greenhouse Gas: Warming or Cooling is Determined by Temperature Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shia, R.

2011-12-01

The instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) is the initial change of the total energy in the climate system when the concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases. In my previous presentation at the 2010 Fall AGU meeting (A11J-02, "Mechanism of Radiative Forcing of Greenhouse Gas its Implication to the Global Warming"), it was demonstrated that IRF at TOA is generated by moving up of the emission weighting function. Thus, the temperature gradient plays a critical role in determining the climate effect of GHG. In this presentation the change of the outgoing infrared radiation flux at ToA is studied from a perturbation point of view. After the cancellation between the changes in the outgoing radiation flux from the surface emission and from the reemission of the atmosphere, the derivative of the outgoing flux to the concentration of GHG is found to be proportional to the temperature gradients below the level where the concentration of GHG changes. Therefore, the greenhouse gas contribute only to the magnitude of the radiative forcing, the temperature gradients decide the direction of the radiative forcing, i.e. warming or cooling, in addition to contributing to its magnitude. In response to the question "Does the negative IRF at ToA lead to the surface cooling or it only cools the upper part of the atmosphere?" the Eddington grey radiative equilibrium model is modified to simulate different scenarios. The original model has been used to illustrate the warming effect of GHG in textbooks of the atmospheric physics. It is modified by adding source terms from the absorption of the solar flux and the internal energy exchange in the atmosphere. In two cases the modified model generates atmospheres with a large and warm stratosphere and negative IRF at ToA when GHG increases by 25%. This negative radiative forcing can lead to the cooling of the atmosphere all the way down to the surface. The implications of the cooling effect of GHG to the climate change, including paleoclimatology and the prerequests for climate models to include cooling effect of GHG properly are discussed.

Insolation-driven 100 kyr glacial cycles and millennial climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Kawamura, K.; Raymo, M. E.; Okuno, J.; Takahashi, K.; Blatter, H.

2013-12-01

The waxing and waning of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past one million years is dominated by an approximately 100-kyr periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. However, insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100 kyr cycle which presumably arises through internal climatic feedbacks. Prior work with conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms of 100-kyr cycle at work remain unclear. Here, using comprehensive climate and ice sheet models, we show that the ~100-kyr periodicity is explained by insolation and internal feedback amongst the climate, ice sheet and lithosphere/asthenosphere system (reference). We found that equilibrium states of ice sheets exhibit hysteresis responses to summer insolation, and that the shape and position of the hysteresis loop play a key role in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that, after its inception, the ice sheet mass balance remains mostly positive or neutral through several precession cycles whose amplitude decreases towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to turn the mass balance to negative. Therefore, once the large ice sheet is established, only a moderate increase in insolation can trigger a negative mass balance, leading to a complete retreat within several thousand years, due to the delayed isostatic rebound. The effect of ocean circulation and millennial scale climate change are not playing the dominant role for determing the 100kyr cycle, but are effective for modifying the speed and geographical pattern of the waxing and waning of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and their melt water. (reference of the basic results: Abe-Ouchi et al, 2013, Insolation-driven 100,000 year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190-193.)

Hydro-climatic Changes: Potential Non-linear Responses of Phosphorus Dynamic in Aquatic/Semi-aquatic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pant, H. K.

2007-12-01

Depending on resilience, threshold and lag times, hydro-climatic changes can cause nonlinear and/or irreversible changes in phosphorus (P) dynamic, and instigate P enrichment in aquatic/semi-aquatic systems. Thus, studying direct/indirect effects of expected global climate change on bioavailability of organic P in aquatic systems are in critical need, to help manage or increase the resilience of the ecosystem. The central hypothesis of this study is that P dynamic in aquatic, especially freshwater, ecosystem is likely to behave nonlinearly due to expected changes in sediment and water acidity, redox status, etc., because of potential hydro-climatic changes in the decades to come, thus, could face irreversible adverse changes. Devising possible biological and chemical treatments for the removal of P from eutrophic lakes, estuaries, etc, as well as helping in predicting the movement and fate of P under changing hydro-climatic conditions would be crucial to manage aquatic ecosystem in the near future. The critical question is not how much P is stored in any given aquatic/semi-aquatic system, but how the resilience and nonlinearity relate to the stability of stored P are affected due to the levels of environmental stressors, which are expected to fluctuate due to global change in the decades to come. Studies related to 31P Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy analysis, and multiple hydraulic retention cycles showed that, in general, frequent drying and reflooding of a semi-aquatic system such as wetland could significantly increase the bioavailability of P due to degradation of relatively less stable organic P, e.g., glycerophosphate and nucleoside monophosphate. Moreover, nutrients flux from sediments to the water column depended on the concentration gradients of the sediment-water interface and redox status. Shift in equilibrium P concentration of the water column as the water level rises, may cause release of adsorbed P from the sediments. Restoration of a eutrophic system may involve stepwise efforts including control of catchment nutrient inputs, internal nutrient loading, and biomanipulation, however, flooding, previously non-flooded areas, could export massive amount of P to nearby aquatic bodies, in turn, may cause collapse of the ecosystem.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

PubMed

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change.

PubMed

Atkins, K E; Travis, J M J

2010-10-07

The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suppressor Mutation Analysis of the Sensory Rhodopsin I-Transducer Complex: Insights into the Color-Sensing Mechanism

PubMed Central

Jung, Kwang-Hwan; Spudich, John L.

1998-01-01

The molecular complex containing the phototaxis receptor sensory rhodopsin I (SRI) and transducer protein HtrI (halobacterial transducer for SRI) mediates color-sensitive phototaxis responses in the archaeon Halobacterium salinarum. One-photon excitation of the complex by orange light elicits attractant responses, while two-photon excitation (orange followed by near-UV light) elicits repellent responses in swimming cells. Several mutations in SRI and HtrI cause an unusual mutant phenotype, called orange-light-inverted signaling, in which the cell produces a repellent response to normally attractant light. We applied a selection procedure for intragenic and extragenic suppressors of orange-light-inverted mutants and identified 15 distinct second-site mutations that restore the attractant response. Two of the 3 suppressor mutations in SRI are positioned at the cytoplasmic ends of helices F and G, and 12 suppressor mutations in HtrI cluster at the cytoplasmic end of the second HtrI transmembrane helix (TM2). Nearly all suppressors invert the normally repellent response to two-photon stimulation to an attractant response when they are expressed with their suppressible mutant alleles or in an otherwise wild-type strain. The results lead to a model for control of flagellar reversal by the SRI-HtrI complex. The model invokes an equilibrium between the A (reversal-inhibiting) and R (reversal-stimulating) conformers of the signaling complex. Attractant light and repellent light shift the equilibrium toward the A and R conformers, respectively, and mutations are proposed to cause intrinsic shifts in the equilibrium in the dark form of the complex. Differences in the strength of the two-photon signal inversion and in the allele specificity of suppression are correlated, and this correlation can be explained in terms of different values of the equilibrium constant (Keq) for the conformational transition in different mutants and mutant-suppressor pairs. PMID:9555883

Modeling the intracellular pathogen-immune interaction with cure rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, Balram; Dubey, Preeti; Dubey, Uma S.

2016-09-01

Many common and emergent infectious diseases like Influenza, SARS, Hepatitis, Ebola etc. are caused by viral pathogens. These infections can be controlled or prevented by understanding the dynamics of pathogen-immune interaction in vivo. In this paper, interaction of pathogens with uninfected and infected cells in presence or absence of immune response are considered in four different cases. In the first case, the model considers the saturated nonlinear infection rate and linear cure rate without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells and without immune response. The next model considers the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells while all other terms are same as in the first case. The third model incorporates innate immune response, humoral immune response and Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) mediated immune response with cure rate and without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells. The last model is an extension of the third model in which the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells has been considered. Positivity and boundedness of solutions are established to ensure the well-posedness of the problem. It has been found that all the four models have two equilibria, namely, pathogen-free equilibrium point and pathogen-present equilibrium point. In each case, stability analysis of each equilibrium point is investigated. Pathogen-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when basic reproduction number is less or equal to unity. This implies that control or prevention of infection is independent of initial concentration of uninfected cells, infected cells, pathogens and immune responses in the body. The proposed models show that introduction of immune response and cure rate strongly affects the stability behavior of the system. Further, on computing basic reproduction number, it has been found to be minimum for the fourth model vis-a-vis other models. The analytical findings of each model have been exemplified by numerical simulations.

Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peteet, D.

2000-01-01

Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.

Simulating Dust Regional Impact on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2017-04-01

Dust is one of the most abundant aerosols, however, currently only a few regional climate downscalings account for dust. This study focuses on the Middle East and the Red Sea regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. The Red Sea is located between North Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which are first and third largest source regions of dust, respectively. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high dust optical depths in the region, especially over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. Modeled atmospheric radiative forcing at the surface, top of the atmosphere and absorption in the atmospheric column indicate that dust significantly perturbs radiative balance. Top of the atmosphere modeled forcing is validated against independently derived GERB satellite product. Due to strong radiative forcing at the sea surface (daily mean forcing during summer reaches -32 Wm-2 and 10 Wm-2 in SW and LW, respectively), using uncoupled ocean model with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions would result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea thermal regime and circulation. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix, and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.3-0.5 K cooling of the Red Sea surface waters, and weakens the overturning circulation in the Red Sea. The salinity distribution, freshwater, and heat budgets are significantly perturbed. This indicates that dust plays an important role in the formation of the Red Sea energy balance and circulation regimes, and has to be thoroughly accounted for in future modeling studies.

Sensitivity of the equilibrium surface temperature of a GCM to systematic changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Saltzman, Barry

1990-01-01

The equilibrium response of surface temperature to atmospheric CO2 concentration, for six values between 100 and 1000 ppm, is calculated from a series of GCM experiments. This response is nonlinear, showing greater sensitivity for lower values of CO2 than for the higher values. It is suggested that changes in CO2 concentration of a given magnitude (e.g., 100 ppm) played a larger role in the Pleistocene ice-age-type temperature variations than in causing global temperature changes due to anthropogenic increases.

Fluctuation-dissipation relation and stationary distribution of an exactly solvable many-particle model for active biomatter far from equilibrium.

PubMed

Netz, Roland R

2018-05-14

An exactly solvable, Hamiltonian-based model of many massive particles that are coupled by harmonic potentials and driven by stochastic non-equilibrium forces is introduced. The stationary distribution and the fluctuation-dissipation relation are derived in closed form for the general non-equilibrium case. Deviations from equilibrium are on one hand characterized by the difference of the obtained stationary distribution from the Boltzmann distribution; this is possible because the model derives from a particle Hamiltonian. On the other hand, the difference between the obtained non-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation and the standard equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem allows us to quantify non-equilibrium in an alternative fashion. Both indicators of non-equilibrium behavior, i.e., deviations from the Boltzmann distribution and deviations from the equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem, can be expressed in terms of a single non-equilibrium parameter α that involves the ratio of friction coefficients and random force strengths. The concept of a non-equilibrium effective temperature, which can be defined by the relation between fluctuations and the dissipation, is by comparison with the exactly derived stationary distribution shown not to hold, even if the effective temperature is made frequency dependent. The analysis is not confined to close-to-equilibrium situations but rather is exact and thus holds for arbitrarily large deviations from equilibrium. Also, the suggested harmonic model can be obtained from non-linear mechanical network systems by an expansion in terms of suitably chosen deviatory coordinates; the obtained results should thus be quite general. This is demonstrated by comparison of the derived non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation relation with experimental data on actin networks that are driven out of equilibrium by energy-consuming protein motors. The comparison is excellent and allows us to extract the non-equilibrium parameter α from experimental spectral response and fluctuation data.

Fluctuation-dissipation relation and stationary distribution of an exactly solvable many-particle model for active biomatter far from equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Netz, Roland R.

2018-05-01

An exactly solvable, Hamiltonian-based model of many massive particles that are coupled by harmonic potentials and driven by stochastic non-equilibrium forces is introduced. The stationary distribution and the fluctuation-dissipation relation are derived in closed form for the general non-equilibrium case. Deviations from equilibrium are on one hand characterized by the difference of the obtained stationary distribution from the Boltzmann distribution; this is possible because the model derives from a particle Hamiltonian. On the other hand, the difference between the obtained non-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation and the standard equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem allows us to quantify non-equilibrium in an alternative fashion. Both indicators of non-equilibrium behavior, i.e., deviations from the Boltzmann distribution and deviations from the equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem, can be expressed in terms of a single non-equilibrium parameter α that involves the ratio of friction coefficients and random force strengths. The concept of a non-equilibrium effective temperature, which can be defined by the relation between fluctuations and the dissipation, is by comparison with the exactly derived stationary distribution shown not to hold, even if the effective temperature is made frequency dependent. The analysis is not confined to close-to-equilibrium situations but rather is exact and thus holds for arbitrarily large deviations from equilibrium. Also, the suggested harmonic model can be obtained from non-linear mechanical network systems by an expansion in terms of suitably chosen deviatory coordinates; the obtained results should thus be quite general. This is demonstrated by comparison of the derived non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation relation with experimental data on actin networks that are driven out of equilibrium by energy-consuming protein motors. The comparison is excellent and allows us to extract the non-equilibrium parameter α from experimental spectral response and fluctuation data.

Deconstructing an Atmospheric Model: Variability and Response, Unstable Periodic Orbits, and the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gritsun, Andrei; Lucarini, Valerio

2016-04-01

Unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) provide the so-called skeletal dynamics of a sufficiently well-behaved chaotic dynamical system and provide a powerful tool for relating the response of the system to its variability. In fact, UPOs constitute natural modes of variability of the system, and resonant behaviour of the response of the system to can be associated to good correspondence between the geometry of one UPO and of the forcing term and between their periodicities. We have here analyzed a simple barotropic model of the atmosphere and constructed and found algorithmically a large number of UPOs. We have then studied the change in the climate resulting from changes in the forcing, in the orography, and in the Eckman friction. The most interesting result is the presence of a strong resonance in the orographic response on time scales of the order of about 3 days, corresponding to forced waves. Interestingly, such a spectral feature is entirely absent from the natural variability of the system and correspond to the excitation of a specific group of UPOs. This clarifies the fact that, as opposed to the case of quasi-equilibrium systems, it is far from obvious to associate forced and free variability in the spirit of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT). Reassuringly, ysing the complementary point of view of covariant Lyapunov vectors, we discover that the forcing projects substantially in the stable direction of the flow, which is exactly the mathematical setting under which the FDT cannot be applied.

Propagation of hydroclimatic variability through the critical zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, A. M.; Calabrese, S.; Parolari, A.

2016-12-01

The interaction between soil moisture dynamics and mineral-weathering reactions (e.g., ion exchange, precipitation-dissolution) affects the availability of nutrients to plants, composition of soils, soil acidification, as well as CO2 sequestration. Across the critical zone (CZ), this interaction is responsible for propagating hydroclimatic fluctuations to deeper soil layers, controlling weathering rates via leaching events which intermittently alter the alkalinity levels. In this contribution, we analyze these dynamics using a stochastic modeling approach based on spatially lumped description of soil hydrology and chemical weathering reactions forced by multi-scale temporal hydrologic variability. We quantify the role of soil moisture dynamics in filtering the rainfall fluctuations through its impacts on soil water chemistry, described by a system of ordinary differential equations (and algebraic equations, for the equilibrium reactions), driving the evolution of alkalinity, pH, the chemical species of the soil solution, and the mineral-weathering rate. A probabilistic description of the evolution of the critical zone is thus obtained, allowing us to describe the CZ response to long-term climate fluctuations, ecosystem and land-use conditions, in terms of key variables groups. The model is applied to the weathering rate of albite in the Calhoun CZ observatory and then extended to explore similarities and differences across other CZs. Typical time scales of response and degrees of sensitivities of CZ to hydroclimatic fluctuations and human forcing are also explored.

Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

2016-05-17

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

The evolutionary and behavioral modification of consumer responses to environmental change.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2014-02-21

How will evolution or other forms of adaptive change alter the response of a consumer species' population density to environmentally driven changes in population growth parameters? This question is addressed by analyzing some simple consumer-resource models to separate the ecological and evolutionary components of the population's response. Ecological responses are always decreased population size, but evolution of traits that have effects on both resource uptake rate and another fitness-related parameter may magnify, offset, or reverse this population decrease. Evolution can change ecologically driven decreases in population size to increases; this is likely when: (1) resources are initially below the density that maximizes resource growth, and (2) the evolutionary response decreases the consumer's resource uptake rate. Evolutionary magnification of the ecological decreases in population size can occur when the environmental change is higher trait-independent mortality. Such evolution-driven decreases are most likely when uptake-rate traits increase and the resource is initially below its maximum growth density. It is common for the difference between the new eco-evolutionary equilibrium and the new ecological equilibrium to be larger than that between the original and new ecological equilibrium densities. The relative magnitudes of ecological and evolutionary effects often depend sensitively on the magnitude of the environmental change and the nature of resource growth. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinearities, scale-dependence, and individualism of boreal forest trees to climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolken, J. M.; Mann, D. H.; Grant, T. A., III; Lloyd, A. H.; Hollingsworth, T. N.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of the climate-growth relationships of trees are complicated by the nonlinearity and variability of these responses through space and time. Furthermore, trees growing at the same site may exhibit opposing growth responses to climate, a phenomenon termed growth divergence. To date the majority of dendrochronological studies in Interior Alaska have involved white spruce growing at treeline, even though black spruce is the most abundant tree species. Although changing climate-growth relationships have been observed in black spruce, there is little known about the multivariate responses of individual trees to temperature and precipitation and whether or not black spruce exhibits growth divergences similar to those documented for white spruce. To evaluate the occurrence of growth divergences in black spruce, we collected cores from trees growing on a steep, north-facing toposequence having a gradient in environmental parameters. Our overall goal was to assess how the climate-growth relationships of black spruce change over space and time. Specifically, we evaluated how topography influences the climate-growth relationships of black spruce and if the growth responses to climate are homogeneous. At the site-level most trees responded negatively to temperature and positively to precipitation, while at the tree-level black spruce exhibited heterogenous growth responses to climate that varied in both space (i.e., between sites) and time (i.e., seasonally and annually). There was a dominant response-type at each site, but there was also considerable variability in the proportion of trees exhibiting each response-type combination. Even in a climatically extreme setting like Alaska's boreal forest, tree responses to climate variability are spatially and temporally complex, as well as highly nonlinear.

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

PubMed Central

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-01-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. PMID:24934878

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

PubMed

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-09-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Science, Ethics and the Climate Responsibilities of Industrial Carbon Producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frumhoff, P. C.

2014-12-01

The question of responsibility for climate change lies at the heart of societal debate over actions to curb greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for now unavoidable climate impacts. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change established the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" among nations, signaling the recognition that industrialized nations who had produced the lion's share of historic emissions bore particular responsibility for avoiding dangerous interference with the climate system. But climate responsibilities can be distributed in other ways as well. This talk focuses on the scientific, historical and ethical basis for considering the climate responsibilities of the major fossil energy companies that have produced and marketed the coal, oil and natural gas whose use largely drives global warming, often while investing in efforts to discredit the scientific evidence and prevent policies that would encourage a transition to low-carbon energy. Earth scientists and scientific societies who rely on financial support from these companies have an opportunity to consider what ethical stance they might take to align their research, scientific understanding and values.

Equatorial convergence of India and early Cenozoic climate trends

PubMed Central

Kent, Dennis V.; Muttoni, Giovanni

2008-01-01

India's northward flight and collision with Asia was a major driver of global tectonics in the Cenozoic and, we argue, of atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) and thus global climate. Subduction of Tethyan oceanic crust with a carpet of carbonate-rich pelagic sediments deposited during transit beneath the high-productivity equatorial belt resulted in a component flux of CO2 delivery to the atmosphere capable to maintain high pCO2 levels and warm climate conditions until the decarbonation factory shut down with the collision of Greater India with Asia at the Early Eocene climatic optimum at ≈50 Ma. At about this time, the India continent and the highly weatherable Deccan Traps drifted into the equatorial humid belt where uptake of CO2 by efficient silicate weathering further perturbed the delicate equilibrium between CO2 input to and removal from the atmosphere toward progressively lower pCO2 levels, thus marking the onset of a cooling trend over the Middle and Late Eocene that some suggest triggered the rapid expansion of Antarctic ice sheets at around the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. PMID:18809910

Equatorial convergence of India and early Cenozoic climate trends.

PubMed

Kent, Dennis V; Muttoni, Giovanni

2008-10-21

India's northward flight and collision with Asia was a major driver of global tectonics in the Cenozoic and, we argue, of atmospheric CO(2) concentration (pCO(2)) and thus global climate. Subduction of Tethyan oceanic crust with a carpet of carbonate-rich pelagic sediments deposited during transit beneath the high-productivity equatorial belt resulted in a component flux of CO(2) delivery to the atmosphere capable to maintain high pCO(2) levels and warm climate conditions until the decarbonation factory shut down with the collision of Greater India with Asia at the Early Eocene climatic optimum at approximately 50 Ma. At about this time, the India continent and the highly weatherable Deccan Traps drifted into the equatorial humid belt where uptake of CO(2) by efficient silicate weathering further perturbed the delicate equilibrium between CO(2) input to and removal from the atmosphere toward progressively lower pCO(2) levels, thus marking the onset of a cooling trend over the Middle and Late Eocene that some suggest triggered the rapid expansion of Antarctic ice sheets at around the Eocene-Oligocene boundary.

Fast Atmosphere-Ocean Model Runs with Large Changes in CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Rind, David H.; Colose, Christopher; Opstbaum, Roger F.

2013-01-01

How does climate sensitivity vary with the magnitude of climate forcing? This question was investigated with the use of a modified coupled atmosphere-ocean model, whose stability was improved so that the model would accommodate large radiative forcings yet be fast enough to reach rapid equilibrium. Experiments were performed in which atmospheric CO2 was multiplied by powers of 2, from 1/64 to 256 times the 1950 value. From 8 to 32 times, the 1950 CO2, climate sensitivity for doubling CO2 reaches 8 C due to increases in water vapor absorption and cloud top height and to reductions in low level cloud cover. As CO2 amount increases further, sensitivity drops as cloud cover and planetary albedo stabilize. No water vapor-induced runaway greenhouse caused by increased CO2 was found for the range of CO2 examined. With CO2 at or below 1/8 of the 1950 value, runaway sea ice does occur as the planet cascades to a snowball Earth climate with fully ice covered oceans and global mean surface temperatures near 30 C.

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments inmore » yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.« less

The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M - Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.; Kirkevåg, A.; Seland, Ø.; Drange, H.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Medhaug, I.; Sand, M.; Seierstad, I. A.

2013-03-01

NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html) without (NorESM1-M) and with (NorESM1-ME) interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15-17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to shift northwards. There are indications of more frequent occurrence of spring and summer blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while the amplitude of ENSO events weakens although they tend to appear more frequently. These indications are uncertain because of biases in the model's representation of present-day conditions. Positive phase PNA and negative phase NAO both appear less frequently under the RCP8.5 scenario, but also this result is considered uncertain. Single-forcing experiments indicate that aerosols and greenhouse gases produce similar geographical patterns of response for near-surface temperature and precipitation. These patterns tend to have opposite signs, although with important exceptions for precipitation at low latitudes. The asymmetric aerosol effects between the two hemispheres lead to a southward displacement of ITCZ. Both forcing agents, thus, tend to reduce Northern Hemispheric subtropical precipitation.

Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

2011-12-01

Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.

Dynamic Snap-Through of Thin-Walled Structures by a Reduced Order Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Przekop, Adam; Rizzi, Stephen A.

2006-01-01

The goal of this investigation is to further develop nonlinear modal numerical simulation methods for application to geometrically nonlinear response of structures exposed to combined high intensity random pressure fluctuations and thermal loadings. The study is conducted on a flat aluminum beam, which permits a comparison of results obtained by a reduced-order analysis with those obtained from a numerically intensive simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom. A uniformly distributed thermal loading is first applied to investigate the dynamic instability associated with thermal buckling. A uniformly distributed random loading is added to investigate the combined thermal-acoustic response. In the latter case, three types of response characteristics are considered, namely: (i) small amplitude vibration around one of the two stable buckling equilibrium positions, (ii) intermittent snap-through response between the two equilibrium positions, and (iii) persistent snap-through response between the two equilibrium positions. For the reduced order analysis, four categories of modal basis functions are identified including those having symmetric transverse (ST), anti-symmetric transverse (AT), symmetric in-plane (SI), and anti-symmetric in-plane (AI) displacements. The effect of basis selection on the quality of results is investigated for the dynamic thermal buckling and combined thermal-acoustic response. It is found that despite symmetric geometry, loading, and boundary conditions, the AT and SI modes must be included in the basis as they participate in the snap-through behavior.

Dynamic Snap-Through of Thermally Buckled Structures by a Reduced Order Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Przekop, Adam; Rizzi, Stephen A.

2007-01-01

The goal of this investigation is to further develop nonlinear modal numerical simulation methods for application to geometrically nonlinear response of structures exposed to combined high intensity random pressure fluctuations and thermal loadings. The study is conducted on a flat aluminum beam, which permits a comparison of results obtained by a reduced-order analysis with those obtained from a numerically intensive simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom. A uniformly distributed thermal loading is first applied to investigate the dynamic instability associated with thermal buckling. A uniformly distributed random loading is added to investigate the combined thermal-acoustic response. In the latter case, three types of response characteristics are considered, namely: (i) small amplitude vibration around one of the two stable buckling equilibrium positions, (ii) intermittent snap-through response between the two equilibrium positions, and (iii) persistent snap-through response between the two equilibrium positions. For the reduced-order analysis, four categories of modal basis functions are identified including those having symmetric transverse, anti-symmetric transverse, symmetric in-plane, and anti-symmetric in-plane displacements. The effect of basis selection on the quality of results is investigated for the dynamic thermal buckling and combined thermal-acoustic response. It is found that despite symmetric geometry, loading, and boundary conditions, the anti-symmetric transverse and symmetric in-plane modes must be included in the basis as they participate in the snap-through behavior.

The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.

PubMed

Boggs, Carol L

2016-10-01

Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Research progress of extreme climate and its vegetation response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xiaolin; Wei, Xiaoqing; Wang, Tao

2017-08-01

The IPCC’s fifth assessment report indicates that climate warming is unquestionable, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events may increase, and extreme weather events can destroy the growth conditions of vegetation that is otherwise in a stable condition. Therefore, it is essential to research the formation of extreme weather events and its ecological response, both in terms scientific development and the needs of societal development. This paper mainly examines these issues from the following aspects: (1) the definition of extreme climate events and the methods of studying the associated response of vegetation; (2) the research progress on extreme climate events and their vegetation response; and (3) the future direction of research on extreme climate and its vegetation response.

Uncertainty Quantification of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CCSM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, C. C.; Lucas, D. D.; Tannahill, J.; Klein, R.

2013-12-01

Uncertainty in the global mean equilibrium surface warming due to doubled atmospheric CO2, as computed by a "slab ocean" configuration of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), is quantified using 1,039 perturbed-input-parameter simulations. The slab ocean configuration reduces the model's e-folding time when approaching an equilibrium state to ~5 years. This time is much less than for the full ocean configuration, consistent with the shallow depth of the upper well-mixed layer of the ocean represented by the "slab." Adoption of the slab ocean configuration requires the assumption of preset values for the convergence of ocean heat transport beneath the upper well-mixed layer. A standard procedure for choosing these values maximizes agreement with the full ocean version's simulation of the present-day climate when input parameters assume their default values. For each new set of input parameter values, we computed the change in ocean heat transport implied by a "Phase 1" model run in which sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations were set equal to present-day values. The resulting total ocean heat transport (= standard value + change implied by Phase 1 run) was then input into "Phase 2" slab ocean runs with varying values of atmospheric CO2. Our uncertainty estimate is based on Latin Hypercube sampling over expert-provided uncertainty ranges of N = 36 adjustable parameters in the atmosphere (CAM4) and sea ice (CICE4) components of CCSM4. Two-dimensional projections of our sampling distribution for the N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of input parameters indicate full coverage of the N-dimensional parameter space, including edges. We used a machine learning-based support vector regression (SVR) statistical model to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of equilibrium warming. This fitting procedure produces a PDF that is qualitatively consistent with the raw histogram of our CCSM4 results. Most of the values from the SVR statistical model are within ~0.1 K of the raw results, well below the inter-decile range inferred below. Independent validation of the fit indicates residual errors that are distributed about zero with a standard deviation of 0.17 K. Analysis of variance shows that the equilibrium warming in CCSM4 is mainly linear in parameter changes. Thus, in accord with the Central Limit Theorem of statistics, the PDF of the warming is approximately Gaussian, i.e. symmetric about its mean value (3.0 K). Since SVR allows for highly nonlinear fits, the symmetry is not an artifact of the fitting procedure. The 10-90 percentile range of the PDF is 2.6-3.4 K, consistent with earlier estimates from CCSM4 but narrower than estimates from other models, which sometimes produce a high-temperature asymmetric tail in the PDF. This work was performed under auspices of the US Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and was funded by LLNL's Uncertainty Quantification Strategic Initiative (Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project 10-SI-013).

Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium
ice sheet volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøgeholm Mikkelsen, Troels; Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter

2018-01-01

Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent) smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr-1 (24-59 Gt yr-1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10-25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10-0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.

Convective Self-Aggregation in Numerical Simulations: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Holloway, Christopher E.; Muller, Caroline

2017-11-01

Organized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is "self-aggregation," in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.

Convective Self-Aggregation in Numerical Simulations: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Holloway, Christopher E.; Muller, Caroline

Organized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is ``self-aggregation,'' in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

2016-01-01

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

Technical note: Simultaneous fully dynamic characterization of multiple input–output relationships in climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.

We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to thosemore » of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Moreover, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.« less

Technical note: Simultaneous fully dynamic characterization of multiple input–output relationships in climate models

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.; ...

2017-02-17

We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to thosemore » of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Moreover, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.« less

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.

PubMed

Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D

2015-11-01

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner

2016-01-01

Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training...

Competition alters tree growth responses to climate at individual and stand scales

Treesearch

Kevin R. Ford; Ian K. Breckheimer; Jerry F. Franklin; James A. Freund; Steve J. Kroiss; Andrew J. Larson; Elinore J. Theobald; Janneke HilleRisLambers

2017-01-01

Understanding how climate affects tree growth is essential for assessing climate change impacts on forests but can be confounded by effects of competition, which strongly influences tree responses to climate. We characterized the joint influences of tree size, competition, and climate on diameter growth using hierarchical Bayesian methods applied to permanent sample...

Modulation of desensitization at glutamate receptors in isolated crucian carp horizontal cells by concanavalin A, cyclothiazide, aniracetam and PEPA.

PubMed

Shen, Y; Lu, T; Yang, X L

1999-03-01

In horizontal cells freshly dissociated from crucian carp (Carassius auratus) retina, we examined the effects of modulators of glutamate receptor desensitization, concanavalin A, cyclothiazide, aniracetam and 4-[2-(phenylsulfonylamino)ethylthio]-2,6-difluoro-phenoxyacetam ide (PEPA), on responses to rapid application of glutamate and kainate, using whole-cell voltage-clamp techniques. Incubation of concanavalin A suppressed the peak response but weakly potentiated the equilibrium response of horizontal cells to glutamate. Cyclothiazide blocked glutamate-induced desensitization in a dose-dependent manner, which resulted in a steady increase of the equilibrium current. The concentration of cyclothiazide causing a half-maximal potentiation for the equilibrium response was 85 microM. Furthermore, cyclothiazide shifted the dose-response relationship of the equilibrium current to the right, but slightly suppressed the kainate-induced sustained current. These effects of concanavalin A and cyclothiazide are consistent with the supposition that glutamate receptors of carp horizontal cells may be an alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methylisoxazole-4-propionate (AMPA)-preferring subtype. In order to further characterize the AMPA receptors of horizontal cells, modulation by aniracetam and PEPA of glutamate- and kainate-induced currents was studied. Aniracetam, a preferential modulator of flop variants of AMPA receptors, considerably blocked desensitization of glutamate-induced currents, but only slightly potentiated kainate-induced currents. It was further found that PEPA, a flop-preferring allosteric modulator of AMPA receptor desensitization, slightly suppressed the peak current, while it dramatically potentiated the equilibrium current induced by glutamate in a dose-dependent manner. PEPA was much potent than aniracetam at these receptors and showed the effect on glutamate-induced desensitization even at a concentration as low as 3 microM. PEPA also potentiated non-desensitizing currents induced by kainate, but with much less extent. These modulatory effects of concanavalin A, cyclothiazide, aniracetam and PEPA on AMPA receptors in carp horizontal cells were rather similar to those obtained at AMPA receptors assembled from flop variants expressed in Xenopus oocyte and HEK cell. Consequently, we speculate that the AMPA receptor on carp horizontal cells may predominantly carry the flop splice variants.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-01-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

PubMed

Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-06-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Maintenance of equilibrium point control during an unexpectedly loaded rapid limb movement.

PubMed

Simmons, R W; Richardson, C

1984-06-08

Two experiments investigated whether the equilibrium point hypothesis or the mass-spring model of motor control subserves positioning accuracy during spring loaded, rapid, bi-articulated movement. For intact preparations, the equilibrium point hypothesis predicts response accuracy to be determined by a mixture of afferent and efferent information, whereas the mass-spring model predicts positioning to be under a direct control system. Subjects completed a series of load-resisted training trials to a spatial target. The magnitude of a sustained spring load was unexpectedly increased on selected trials. Results indicated positioning accuracy and applied force varied with increases in load, which suggests that the original efferent commands are modified by afferent information during the movement as predicted by the equilibrium point hypothesis.

Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

PubMed

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

2012-01-01

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

A Zonal Climate Model for the 1-D Mars Evolution Code: Explaining Meridiani Planum.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, C. V.; McKay, C. P.; Zahnle, K. J.

2005-12-01

Recent MER Opportunity observations suggest there existed an extensive body of shallow water in the present Meridiani Planum during the late Noachian [1]. Observations of roughly contemporaneous valley networks show little net erosion [2]. Hypsometric analysis [3] finds that martian drainage basins are similar to terrestrial drainage basins in very arid regions. The immaturity of martian drainage basins suggests they were formed by infrequent fluvial action. If similar fluvial discharges are responsible for the laminations in the salt-bearing outcrops of Meridiani Planum, their explanation may require a climate model based on surface thermal equilibrium with diurnally averaged temperatures greater than freezing. In the context of Mars' chaotic obliquity, invoking a moderately thick atmosphere with seasonal insolation patterns may uncover the conditions under which the outcrops formed. We compounded a 1-D model of the evolution of Mars' inventories of CO2 over its lifetime called the Mars Evolution Code (MEC) [4]. We are assembling a zonal climate model that includes meridional heat transport, heat conduction to/from the regolith, latent heat deposition, and an albedo distribution based on the depositional patterns of ices. Since water vapor is an important greenhouse gas, and whose ice affects the albedo, we must install a full hydrological cycle. This requires a thermal model of the regolith to model diffusion of water vapor to/from a permafrost layer. Our model carries obliquity and eccentricity distributions consistent with Laskar et al. [5], so we will be able to model the movement of the ice cap with changes in obliquity. The climate model will be used to investigate the conditions under which ponded water could have occurred in the late Noachian, thus supplying a constraint on the free inventory of CO2 at that time. Our evolution code can then investigate Hesperian and Amazonian climates. The model could also be used to understand evidence of recent climate change, and the specifics of the layering of the northern polar cap. References [1] Hynek, B. M. (2004) Nature 431, 156. [2] Irwin, R. et al. (2004) LPI Conf. 35, 1991. [3] Stepinski, T. F., (2004) JGR E18, 2005 [4] Manning, C. V., et al. (2005Icarus submitted [5] Laskar, J. et al. (2004) Icarus, 170, 343.

The Once and Future North Atlantic: How the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Can Increase Stakeholder Preparedness in a Warming World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, P.; de Mutsert, K.

2013-12-01

Paleoclimatic reconstructions, particularly from periods that may serve as an analog to the present and future greenhouse-driven warming, are increasingly being used to validate climate models as well as to provide constraints on broad impacts such as global temperature and sea level change. However, paleoclimatic data remains under-utilized in decision-making processes by stakeholders, who typically rely on scenarios produced by computer models or naive extrapolation of present trends. We hope to increase the information available to stakeholders by incorporating paleoclimatic data from the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ~3ma) into a fisheries model of the North Atlantic. North Atlantic fisheries are economically important and are expected to be sensitive to climatic change. State of the art climate models remain unable to realistically simulate the North Atlantic, both over the observational record as well as during times in the geologic past such as the mPWP. Given that the mPWP shares many of the same boundary conditions as those likely to be seen in the near future, we seek to answer the question 'What if the climate of the future looks more like the climate of the past?' relative to what state of the art computer models currently project. To that end we have created a suite of future North Atlantic Ocean scenarios using output from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 modeling experiments, as well as the PRISM group's Mid-Pliocene ocean reconstruction. We use these scenarios to drive an ecosystem-based fisheries model using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software to identify differences between the scenarios as the North Atlantic Ocean changes through time. Additionally, we examine the spatial component of these differences by using the Ecospace module of EwE. Whereas the Ecosim realizations are intended to capture the dynamic response to changing oceanographic parameters (SST, SSS, DO) over time, the Ecospace experiments are intended to explore the impact of different equilibrium conditions on fish community longer-term spatial redistribution. By making use not only of climate model output but also paleoclimatic data from a period that closely resembles our near future, stakeholders can make decisions informed by a more robust range of potential outcomes as greenhouse emissions warm the planet.