Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps/incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghrist, Richard W.; Plakalovic, Dragan

2012-01-01

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections

PubMed Central

Bailey, Stephanie L.; Bono, Rose S.; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D.

2018-01-01

Background Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. Methods We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. Results We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Conclusions Standard error-checking techniques may not identify all errors in spreadsheet-based models. Comparing parallel model versions can aid in identifying unintentional errors and promoting reliable model projections, particularly when resources are limited. PMID:29570737

Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

PubMed

Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

2018-01-01

Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not identify all errors in spreadsheet-based models. Comparing parallel model versions can aid in identifying unintentional errors and promoting reliable model projections, particularly when resources are limited.

The Differences in Error Rate and Type between IELTS Writing Bands and Their Impact on Academic Workload

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Müller, Amanda

2015-01-01

This paper attempts to demonstrate the differences in writing between International English Language Testing System (IELTS) bands 6.0, 6.5 and 7.0. An analysis of exemplars provided from the IELTS test makers reveals that IELTS 6.0, 6.5 and 7.0 writers can make a minimum of 206 errors, 96 errors and 35 errors per 1000 words. The following section…

The Accuracy of Webcams in 2D Motion Analysis: Sources of Error and Their Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Page, A.; Moreno, R.; Candelas, P.; Belmar, F.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we show the potential of webcams as precision measuring instruments in a physics laboratory. Various sources of error appearing in 2D coordinate measurements using low-cost commercial webcams are discussed, quantifying their impact on accuracy and precision, and simple procedures to control these sources of error are presented.…

Impact of variational assimilation using multivariate background error covariances on the simulation of monsoon depressions over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhanya, M.; Chandrasekar, A.

2016-02-01

The background error covariance structure influences a variational data assimilation system immensely. The simulation of a weather phenomenon like monsoon depression can hence be influenced by the background correlation information used in the analysis formulation. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model Data assimilation (WRFDA) system includes an option for formulating multivariate background correlations for its three-dimensional variational (3DVar) system (cv6 option). The impact of using such a formulation in the simulation of three monsoon depressions over India is investigated in this study. Analysis and forecast fields generated using this option are compared with those obtained using the default formulation for regional background error correlations (cv5) in WRFDA and with a base run without any assimilation. The model rainfall forecasts are compared with rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and the other model forecast fields are compared with a high-resolution analysis as well as with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis. The results of the study indicate that inclusion of additional correlation information in background error statistics has a moderate impact on the vertical profiles of relative humidity, moisture convergence, horizontal divergence and the temperature structure at the depression centre at the analysis time of the cv5/cv6 sensitivity experiments. Moderate improvements are seen in two of the three depressions investigated in this study. An improved thermodynamic and moisture structure at the initial time is expected to provide for improved rainfall simulation. The results of the study indicate that the skill scores of accumulated rainfall are somewhat better for the cv6 option as compared to the cv5 option for at least two of the three depression cases studied, especially at the higher threshold levels. Considering the importance of utilising improved flow-dependent correlation structures for efficient data assimilation, the need for more studies on the impact of background error covariances is obvious.

First-order approximation error analysis of Risley-prism-based beam directing system.

PubMed

Zhao, Yanyan; Yuan, Yan

2014-12-01

To improve the performance of a Risley-prism system for optical detection and measuring applications, it is necessary to be able to determine the direction of the outgoing beam with high accuracy. In previous works, error sources and their impact on the performance of the Risley-prism system have been analyzed, but their numerical approximation accuracy was not high. Besides, pointing error analysis of the Risley-prism system has provided results for the case when the component errors, prism orientation errors, and assembly errors are certain. In this work, the prototype of a Risley-prism system was designed. The first-order approximations of the error analysis were derived and compared with the exact results. The directing errors of a Risley-prism system associated with wedge-angle errors, prism mounting errors, and bearing assembly errors were analyzed based on the exact formula and the first-order approximation. The comparisons indicated that our first-order approximation is accurate. In addition, the combined errors produced by the wedge-angle errors and mounting errors of the two prisms together were derived and in both cases were proved to be the sum of errors caused by the first and the second prism separately. Based on these results, the system error of our prototype was estimated. The derived formulas can be implemented to evaluate beam directing errors of any Risley-prism beam directing system with a similar configuration.

An experimental study of fault propagation in a jet-engine controller. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Gwan Seung

1990-01-01

An experimental analysis of the impact of transient faults on a microprocessor-based jet engine controller, used in the Boeing 747 and 757 aircrafts is described. A hierarchical simulation environment which allows the injection of transients during run-time and the tracing of their impact is described. Verification of the accuracy of this approach is also provided. A determination of the probability that a transient results in latch, pin or functional errors is made. Given a transient fault, there is approximately an 80 percent chance that there is no impact on the chip. An empirical model to depict the process of error exploration and degeneration in the target system is derived. The model shows that, if no latch errors occur within eight clock cycles, no significant damage is likely to happen. Thus, the overall impact of a transient is well contained. A state transition model is also derived from the measured data, to describe the error propagation characteristics within the chip, and to quantify the impact of transients on the external environment. The model is used to identify and isolate the critical fault propagation paths, the module most sensitive to fault propagation and the module with the highest potential of causing external pin errors.

Impact of exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology: effect of error type in time-series studies.

PubMed

Goldman, Gretchen T; Mulholland, James A; Russell, Armistead G; Strickland, Matthew J; Klein, Mitchel; Waller, Lance A; Tolbert, Paige E

2011-06-22

Two distinctly different types of measurement error are Berkson and classical. Impacts of measurement error in epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution are expected to depend on error type. We characterize measurement error due to instrument imprecision and spatial variability as multiplicative (i.e. additive on the log scale) and model it over a range of error types to assess impacts on risk ratio estimates both on a per measurement unit basis and on a per interquartile range (IQR) basis in a time-series study in Atlanta. Daily measures of twelve ambient air pollutants were analyzed: NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, CO, PM10 mass, PM2.5 mass, and PM2.5 components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon and organic carbon. Semivariogram analysis was applied to assess spatial variability. Error due to this spatial variability was added to a reference pollutant time-series on the log scale using Monte Carlo simulations. Each of these time-series was exponentiated and introduced to a Poisson generalized linear model of cardiovascular disease emergency department visits. Measurement error resulted in reduced statistical significance for the risk ratio estimates for all amounts (corresponding to different pollutants) and types of error. When modelled as classical-type error, risk ratios were attenuated, particularly for primary air pollutants, with average attenuation in risk ratios on a per unit of measurement basis ranging from 18% to 92% and on an IQR basis ranging from 18% to 86%. When modelled as Berkson-type error, risk ratios per unit of measurement were biased away from the null hypothesis by 2% to 31%, whereas risk ratios per IQR were attenuated (i.e. biased toward the null) by 5% to 34%. For CO modelled error amount, a range of error types were simulated and effects on risk ratio bias and significance were observed. For multiplicative error, both the amount and type of measurement error impact health effect estimates in air pollution epidemiology. By modelling instrument imprecision and spatial variability as different error types, we estimate direction and magnitude of the effects of error over a range of error types.

Local indicators of geocoding accuracy (LIGA): theory and application

PubMed Central

Jacquez, Geoffrey M; Rommel, Robert

2009-01-01

Background Although sources of positional error in geographic locations (e.g. geocoding error) used for describing and modeling spatial patterns are widely acknowledged, research on how such error impacts the statistical results has been limited. In this paper we explore techniques for quantifying the perturbability of spatial weights to different specifications of positional error. Results We find that a family of curves describes the relationship between perturbability and positional error, and use these curves to evaluate sensitivity of alternative spatial weight specifications to positional error both globally (when all locations are considered simultaneously) and locally (to identify those locations that would benefit most from increased geocoding accuracy). We evaluate the approach in simulation studies, and demonstrate it using a case-control study of bladder cancer in south-eastern Michigan. Conclusion Three results are significant. First, the shape of the probability distributions of positional error (e.g. circular, elliptical, cross) has little impact on the perturbability of spatial weights, which instead depends on the mean positional error. Second, our methodology allows researchers to evaluate the sensitivity of spatial statistics to positional accuracy for specific geographies. This has substantial practical implications since it makes possible routine sensitivity analysis of spatial statistics to positional error arising in geocoded street addresses, global positioning systems, LIDAR and other geographic data. Third, those locations with high perturbability (most sensitive to positional error) and high leverage (that contribute the most to the spatial weight being considered) will benefit the most from increased positional accuracy. These are rapidly identified using a new visualization tool we call the LIGA scatterplot. Herein lies a paradox for spatial analysis: For a given level of positional error increasing sample density to more accurately follow the underlying population distribution increases perturbability and introduces error into the spatial weights matrix. In some studies positional error may not impact the statistical results, and in others it might invalidate the results. We therefore must understand the relationships between positional accuracy and the perturbability of the spatial weights in order to have confidence in a study's results. PMID:19863795

Integrating prior information into microwave tomography part 2: Impact of errors in prior information on microwave tomography image quality.

PubMed

Kurrant, Douglas; Fear, Elise; Baran, Anastasia; LoVetri, Joe

2017-12-01

The authors have developed a method to combine a patient-specific map of tissue structure and average dielectric properties with microwave tomography. The patient-specific map is acquired with radar-based techniques and serves as prior information for microwave tomography. The impact that the degree of structural detail included in this prior information has on image quality was reported in a previous investigation. The aim of the present study is to extend this previous work by identifying and quantifying the impact that errors in the prior information have on image quality, including the reconstruction of internal structures and lesions embedded in fibroglandular tissue. This study also extends the work of others reported in literature by emulating a clinical setting with a set of experiments that incorporate heterogeneity into both the breast interior and glandular region, as well as prior information related to both fat and glandular structures. Patient-specific structural information is acquired using radar-based methods that form a regional map of the breast. Errors are introduced to create a discrepancy in the geometry and electrical properties between the regional map and the model used to generate the data. This permits the impact that errors in the prior information have on image quality to be evaluated. Image quality is quantitatively assessed by measuring the ability of the algorithm to reconstruct both internal structures and lesions embedded in fibroglandular tissue. The study is conducted using both 2D and 3D numerical breast models constructed from MRI scans. The reconstruction results demonstrate robustness of the method relative to errors in the dielectric properties of the background regional map, and to misalignment errors. These errors do not significantly influence the reconstruction accuracy of the underlying structures, or the ability of the algorithm to reconstruct malignant tissue. Although misalignment errors do not significantly impact the quality of the reconstructed fat and glandular structures for the 3D scenarios, the dielectric properties are reconstructed less accurately within the glandular structure for these cases relative to the 2D cases. However, general agreement between the 2D and 3D results was found. A key contribution of this paper is the detailed analysis of the impact of prior information errors on the reconstruction accuracy and ability to detect tumors. The results support the utility of acquiring patient-specific information with radar-based techniques and incorporating this information into MWT. The method is robust to errors in the dielectric properties of the background regional map, and to misalignment errors. Completion of this analysis is an important step toward developing the method into a practical diagnostic tool. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Inpatient medical errors involving glucose-lowering medications and their impact on patients: review of 2,598 incidents from a voluntary electronic error-reporting database.

PubMed

Amori, Renee E; Pittas, Anastassios G; Siegel, Richard D; Kumar, Sanjaya; Chen, Jack S; Karnam, Suneel; Golden, Sherita H; Salem, Deeb N

2008-01-01

To describe characteristics of inpatient medical errors involving hypoglycemic medications and their impact on patient care. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of medical errors and associated adverse events voluntarily reported by hospital employees and staff in 21 nonprofit, nonfederal health-care organizations in the United States that implemented a Web-based electronic error-reporting system (e-ERS) between August 1, 2000, and December 31, 2005. Persons reporting the errors determined the level of impact on patient care. The median duration of e-ERS use was 3.1 years, and 2,598 inpatient error reports involved insulin or orally administered hypoglycemic agents. Nursing staff provided 59% of the reports; physicians reported <2%. Approximately two-thirds of the errors (1,693 of 2,598) reached the patient. Errors that caused temporary harm necessitating major treatment or that caused permanent harm accounted for 1.5% of reports (40 of 2,598). Insulin was involved in 82% of reports, and orally administered hypoglycemic agents were involved in 18% of all reports (473 of 2,598). Sulfonylureas were implicated in 51.8% of reports involving oral hypoglycemic agents (9.4% of all reports). An e-ERS provides an accessible venue for reporting and tracking inpatient medical errors involving glucose-lowering medications. Results are limited by potential underreporting of events, particularly by physicians, and variations in the reporter perception of patient harm.

Single Event Upset Analysis: On-orbit performance of the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer Digital Signal Processor Memory aboard the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiaqiang; Choutko, Vitaly; Xiao, Liyi

2018-03-01

Based on the collection of error data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) Digital Signal Processors (DSP), on-orbit Single Event Upsets (SEUs) of the DSP program memory are analyzed. The daily error distribution and time intervals between errors are calculated to evaluate the reliability of the system. The particle density distribution of International Space Station (ISS) orbit is presented and the effects from the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) and the geomagnetic poles are analyzed. The impact of solar events on the DSP program memory is carried out combining data analysis and Monte Carlo simulation (MC). From the analysis and simulation results, it is concluded that the area corresponding to the SAA is the main source of errors on the ISS orbit. Solar events can also cause errors on DSP program memory, but the effect depends on the on-orbit particle density.

Strategic planning to reduce medical errors: Part I--diagnosis.

PubMed

Waldman, J Deane; Smith, Howard L

2012-01-01

Despite extensive dialogue and a continuing stream of proposed medical practice revisions, medical errors and adverse impacts persist. Connectivity of vital elements is often underestimated or not fully understood. This paper analyzes medical errors from a systems dynamics viewpoint (Part I). Our analysis suggests in Part II that the most fruitful strategies for dissolving medical errors include facilitating physician learning, educating patients about appropriate expectations surrounding treatment regimens, and creating "systematic" patient protections rather than depending on (nonexistent) perfect providers.

Orbit determination error analysis and comparison of station-keeping costs for Lissajous and halo-type libration point orbits and sensitivity analysis using experimental design techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, Steven C.

1993-01-01

Spacecraft in orbit near libration point L1 in the Sun-Earth system are excellent platforms for research concerning solar effects on the terrestrial environment. One spacecraft mission launched in 1978 used an L1 orbit for nearly 4 years, and future L1 orbital missions are also being planned. Orbit determination and station-keeping are, however, required for these orbits. In particular, orbit determination error analysis may be used to compute the state uncertainty after a predetermined tracking period; the predicted state uncertainty levels then will impact the control costs computed in station-keeping simulations. Error sources, such as solar radiation pressure and planetary mass uncertainties, are also incorporated. For future missions, there may be some flexibility in the type and size of the spacecraft's nominal trajectory, but different orbits may produce varying error analysis and station-keeping results. The nominal path, for instance, can be (nearly) periodic or distinctly quasi-periodic. A periodic 'halo' orbit may be constructed to be significantly larger than a quasi-periodic 'Lissajous' path; both may meet mission requirements, but perhaps the required control costs for these orbits are probably different. Also for this spacecraft tracking and control simulation problem, experimental design methods can be used to determine the most significant uncertainties. That is, these methods can determine the error sources in the tracking and control problem that most impact the control cost (output); it also produces an equation that gives the approximate functional relationship between the error inputs and the output.

Impact of device level faults in a digital avionic processor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suk, Ho Kim

1989-01-01

This study describes an experimental analysis of the impact of gate and device-level faults in the processor of a Bendix BDX-930 flight control system. Via mixed mode simulation, faults were injected at the gate (stuck-at) and at the transistor levels and, their propagation through the chip to the output pins was measured. The results show that there is little correspondence between a stuck-at and a device-level fault model, as far as error activity or detection within a functional unit is concerned. In so far as error activity outside the injected unit and at the output pins are concerned, the stuck-at and device models track each other. The stuck-at model, however, overestimates, by over 100 percent, the probability of fault propagation to the output pins. An evaluation of the Mean Error Durations and the Mean Time Between Errors at the output pins shows that the stuck-at model significantly underestimates (by 62 percent) the impact of an internal chip fault on the output pins. Finally, the study also quantifies the impact of device fault by location, both internally and at the output pins.

Impact of Spacecraft Shielding on Direct Ionization Soft Error Rates for sub-130 nm Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellish, Jonathan A.; Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Michael M.; Sanders, Anthony B.; Ladbury, Raymond L.; Oldham, Timothy R.; Marshall, Paul W.; Heidel, David F.; Rodbell, Kenneth P.

2010-01-01

We use ray tracing software to model various levels of spacecraft shielding complexity and energy deposition pulse height analysis to study how it affects the direct ionization soft error rate of microelectronic components in space. The analysis incorporates the galactic cosmic ray background, trapped proton, and solar heavy ion environments as well as the October 1989 and July 2000 solar particle events.

Impact of Spacecraft Shielding on Direct Ionization Soft Error Rates for Sub-130 nm Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellish, Jonathan A.; Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Sanders, Anthony B.; Ladbury, Raymond L.; Oldham, Timothy R.; Marshall, Paul W.; Heidel, David F.; Rodbell, Kenneth P.

2010-01-01

We use ray tracing software to model various levels of spacecraft shielding complexity and energy deposition pulse height analysis to study how it affects the direct ionization soft error rate of microelectronic components in space. The analysis incorporates the galactic cosmic ray background, trapped proton, and solar heavy ion environments as well as the October 1989 and July 2000 solar particle events.

Non-linear matter power spectrum covariance matrix errors and cosmological parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blot, L.; Corasaniti, P. S.; Amendola, L.; Kitching, T. D.

2016-06-01

The covariance of the matter power spectrum is a key element of the analysis of galaxy clustering data. Independent realizations of observational measurements can be used to sample the covariance, nevertheless statistical sampling errors will propagate into the cosmological parameter inference potentially limiting the capabilities of the upcoming generation of galaxy surveys. The impact of these errors as function of the number of realizations has been previously evaluated for Gaussian distributed data. However, non-linearities in the late-time clustering of matter cause departures from Gaussian statistics. Here, we address the impact of non-Gaussian errors on the sample covariance and precision matrix errors using a large ensemble of N-body simulations. In the range of modes where finite volume effects are negligible (0.1 ≲ k [h Mpc-1] ≲ 1.2), we find deviations of the variance of the sample covariance with respect to Gaussian predictions above ˜10 per cent at k > 0.3 h Mpc-1. Over the entire range these reduce to about ˜5 per cent for the precision matrix. Finally, we perform a Fisher analysis to estimate the effect of covariance errors on the cosmological parameter constraints. In particular, assuming Euclid-like survey characteristics we find that a number of independent realizations larger than 5000 is necessary to reduce the contribution of sampling errors to the cosmological parameter uncertainties at subpercent level. We also show that restricting the analysis to large scales k ≲ 0.2 h Mpc-1 results in a considerable loss in constraining power, while using the linear covariance to include smaller scales leads to an underestimation of the errors on the cosmological parameters.

TU-C-BRE-05: Clinical Implications of AAA Commissioning Errors and Ability of Common Commissioning ' Credentialing Procedures to Detect Them

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McVicker, A; Oldham, M; Yin, F

2014-06-15

Purpose: To test the ability of the TG-119 commissioning process and RPC credentialing to detect errors in the commissioning process for a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). Methods: We introduced commissioning errors into the commissioning process for the Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm (AAA) within the Eclipse TPS. We included errors in Dosimetric Leaf Gap (DLG), electron contamination, flattening filter material, and beam profile measurement with an inappropriately large farmer chamber (simulated using sliding window smoothing of profiles). We then evaluated the clinical impact of these errors on clinical intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans (head and neck, low and intermediate riskmore » prostate, mesothelioma, and scalp) by looking at PTV D99, and mean and max OAR dose. Finally, for errors with substantial clinical impact we determined sensitivity of the RPC IMRT film analysis at the midpoint between PTV and OAR using a 4mm distance to agreement metric, and of a 7% TLD dose comparison. We also determined sensitivity of the 3 dose planes of the TG-119 C-shape IMRT phantom using gamma criteria of 3% 3mm. Results: The largest clinical impact came from large changes in the DLG with a change of 1mm resulting in up to a 5% change in the primary PTV D99. This resulted in a discrepancy in the RPC TLDs in the PTVs and OARs of 7.1% and 13.6% respectively, which would have resulted in detection. While use of incorrect flattening filter caused only subtle errors (<1%) in clinical plans, the effect was most pronounced for the RPC TLDs in the OARs (>6%). Conclusion: The AAA commissioning process within the Eclipse TPS is surprisingly robust to user error. When errors do occur, the RPC and TG-119 commissioning credentialing criteria are effective at detecting them; however OAR TLDs are the most sensitive despite the RPC currently excluding them from analysis.« less

Using Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis to reduce medication errors in the process of drug prescription, validation and dispensing in hospitalised patients.

PubMed

Vélez-Díaz-Pallarés, Manuel; Delgado-Silveira, Eva; Carretero-Accame, María Emilia; Bermejo-Vicedo, Teresa

2013-01-01

To identify actions to reduce medication errors in the process of drug prescription, validation and dispensing, and to evaluate the impact of their implementation. A Health Care Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) was supported by a before-and-after medication error study to measure the actual impact on error rate after the implementation of corrective actions in the process of drug prescription, validation and dispensing in wards equipped with computerised physician order entry (CPOE) and unit-dose distribution system (788 beds out of 1080) in a Spanish university hospital. The error study was carried out by two observers who reviewed medication orders on a daily basis to register prescription errors by physicians and validation errors by pharmacists. Drugs dispensed in the unit-dose trolleys were reviewed for dispensing errors. Error rates were expressed as the number of errors for each process divided by the total opportunities for error in that process times 100. A reduction in prescription errors was achieved by providing training for prescribers on CPOE, updating prescription procedures, improving clinical decision support and automating the software connection to the hospital census (relative risk reduction (RRR), 22.0%; 95% CI 12.1% to 31.8%). Validation errors were reduced after optimising time spent in educating pharmacy residents on patient safety, developing standardised validation procedures and improving aspects of the software's database (RRR, 19.4%; 95% CI 2.3% to 36.5%). Two actions reduced dispensing errors: reorganising the process of filling trolleys and drawing up a protocol for drug pharmacy checking before delivery (RRR, 38.5%; 95% CI 14.1% to 62.9%). HFMEA facilitated the identification of actions aimed at reducing medication errors in a healthcare setting, as the implementation of several of these led to a reduction in errors in the process of drug prescription, validation and dispensing.

Failure analysis and modeling of a multicomputer system. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Subramani, Sujatha Srinivasan

1990-01-01

This thesis describes the results of an extensive measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a 7-machine DEC VaxCluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system error and failure characteristics, we develop reward models to analyze the impact of failures and errors on the system. The results show that, although 98 percent of errors in the shared resources recover, they result in 48 percent of all system failures. The analysis of rewards shows that the expected reward rate for the VaxCluster decreases to 0.5 in 100 days for a 3 out of 7 model, which is well over a 100 times that for a 7-out-of-7 model. A comparison of the reward rates for a range of k-out-of-n models indicates that the maximum increase in reward rate (0.25) occurs in going from the 6-out-of-7 model to the 5-out-of-7 model. The analysis also shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.2 vs. 0.91 for network errors). The large loss in reward rate for software errors is due to the fact that a large proportion (94 percent) of software errors lead to failure. In comparison, the high reward rate for network errors is due to fast recovery from a majority of these errors (median recovery duration is 0 seconds).

Failure analysis and modeling of a VAXcluster system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Dong; Iyer, Ravishankar K.; Subramani, Sujatha S.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses the results of a measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a DEC VAXcluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system dependability characteristics such as error and failure distributions and hazard rates for both individual machines and for the VAXcluster, reward models were developed to analyze the impact of failures on the system as a whole. The results show that more than 46 percent of all failures were due to errors in shared resources. This is despite the fact that these errors have a recovery probability greater than 0.99. The hazard rate calculations show that not only errors, but also failures occur in bursts. Approximately 40 percent of all failures occur in bursts and involved multiple machines. This result indicates that correlated failures are significant. Analysis of rewards shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.05 vs 0.74 for disk errors). The expected reward rate (reliability measure) of the VAXcluster drops to 0.5 in 18 hours for the 7-out-of-7 model and in 80 days for the 3-out-of-7 model.

Diffraction analysis of sidelobe characteristics of optical elements with ripple error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Luo, Yupeng; Bai, Jian; Zhou, Xiangdong; Du, Juan; Liu, Qun; Luo, Yujie

2018-03-01

The ripple errors of the lens lead to optical damage in high energy laser system. The analysis of sidelobe on the focal plane, caused by ripple error, provides a reference to evaluate the error and the imaging quality. In this paper, we analyze the diffraction characteristics of sidelobe of optical elements with ripple errors. First, we analyze the characteristics of ripple error and build relationship between ripple error and sidelobe. The sidelobe results from the diffraction of ripple errors. The ripple error tends to be periodic due to fabrication method on the optical surface. The simulated experiments are carried out based on angular spectrum method by characterizing ripple error as rotationally symmetric periodic structures. The influence of two major parameter of ripple including spatial frequency and peak-to-valley value to sidelobe is discussed. The results indicate that spatial frequency and peak-to-valley value both impact sidelobe at the image plane. The peak-tovalley value is the major factor to affect the energy proportion of the sidelobe. The spatial frequency is the major factor to affect the distribution of the sidelobe at the image plane.

Evaluation and error apportionment of an ensemble of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modelling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and American continents, this study aims at i) apportioning the error to the responsible processes using time-scale analysis, ii) helping to detect causes of models error, and iii) identifying the processes and scales most urgently requiring dedicated investigations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition and time series analysis of the models biases for several fields (ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature). The operational metrics (magnitude of the error, sign of the bias, associativity) provide an overall sense of model strengths and deficiencies, while apportioning the error to its constituent parts (bias, variance and covariance) can help to assess the nature and quality of the error. Each of the error components is analysed independently and apportioned to specific processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intra-day) using the error apportionment technique devised in the former phases of AQMEII.The application of the error apportionment method to the AQMEII Phase 3 simulations provides several key insights. In addition to reaffirming the strong impact

A theoretical basis for the analysis of multiversion software subject to coincident errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckhardt, D. E., Jr.; Lee, L. D.

1985-01-01

Fundamental to the development of redundant software techniques (known as fault-tolerant software) is an understanding of the impact of multiple joint occurrences of errors, referred to here as coincident errors. A theoretical basis for the study of redundant software is developed which: (1) provides a probabilistic framework for empirically evaluating the effectiveness of a general multiversion strategy when component versions are subject to coincident errors, and (2) permits an analytical study of the effects of these errors. An intensity function, called the intensity of coincident errors, has a central role in this analysis. This function describes the propensity of programmers to introduce design faults in such a way that software components fail together when executing in the application environment. A condition under which a multiversion system is a better strategy than relying on a single version is given.

Errors in radiation oncology: A study in pathways and dosimetric impact

PubMed Central

Drzymala, Robert E.; Purdy, James A.; Michalski, Jeff

2005-01-01

As complexity for treating patients increases, so does the risk of error. Some publications have suggested that record and verify (R&V) systems may contribute in propagating errors. Direct data transfer has the potential to eliminate most, but not all, errors. And although the dosimetric consequences may be obvious in some cases, a detailed study does not exist. In this effort, we examined potential errors in terms of scenarios, pathways of occurrence, and dosimetry. Our goal was to prioritize error prevention according to likelihood of event and dosimetric impact. For conventional photon treatments, we investigated errors of incorrect source‐to‐surface distance (SSD), energy, omitted wedge (physical, dynamic, or universal) or compensating filter, incorrect wedge or compensating filter orientation, improper rotational rate for arc therapy, and geometrical misses due to incorrect gantry, collimator or table angle, reversed field settings, and setup errors. For electron beam therapy, errors investigated included incorrect energy, incorrect SSD, along with geometric misses. For special procedures we examined errors for total body irradiation (TBI, incorrect field size, dose rate, treatment distance) and LINAC radiosurgery (incorrect collimation setting, incorrect rotational parameters). Likelihood of error was determined and subsequently rated according to our history of detecting such errors. Dosimetric evaluation was conducted by using dosimetric data, treatment plans, or measurements. We found geometric misses to have the highest error probability. They most often occurred due to improper setup via coordinate shift errors or incorrect field shaping. The dosimetric impact is unique for each case and depends on the proportion of fields in error and volume mistreated. These errors were short‐lived due to rapid detection via port films. The most significant dosimetric error was related to a reversed wedge direction. This may occur due to incorrect collimator angle or wedge orientation. For parallel‐opposed 60° wedge fields, this error could be as high as 80% to a point off‐axis. Other examples of dosimetric impact included the following: SSD, ~2%/cm for photons or electrons; photon energy (6 MV vs. 18 MV), on average 16% depending on depth, electron energy, ~0.5cm of depth coverage per MeV (mega‐electron volt). Of these examples, incorrect distances were most likely but rapidly detected by in vivo dosimetry. Errors were categorized by occurrence rate, methods and timing of detection, longevity, and dosimetric impact. Solutions were devised according to these criteria. To date, no one has studied the dosimetric impact of global errors in radiation oncology. Although there is heightened awareness that with increased use of ancillary devices and automation, there must be a parallel increase in quality check systems and processes, errors do and will continue to occur. This study has helped us identify and prioritize potential errors in our clinic according to frequency and dosimetric impact. For example, to reduce the use of an incorrect wedge direction, our clinic employs off‐axis in vivo dosimetry. To avoid a treatment distance setup error, we use both vertical table settings and optical distance indicator (ODI) values to properly set up fields. As R&V systems become more automated, more accurate and efficient data transfer will occur. This will require further analysis. Finally, we have begun examining potential intensity‐modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) errors according to the same criteria. PACS numbers: 87.53.Xd, 87.53.St PMID:16143793

Impact of patient-specific factors, irradiated left ventricular volume, and treatment set-up errors on the development of myocardial perfusion defects after radiation therapy for left-sided breast cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Elizabeth S.; Prosnitz, Robert G.; Yu Xiaoli

2006-11-15

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of patient-specific factors, left ventricle (LV) volume, and treatment set-up errors on the rate of perfusion defects 6 to 60 months post-radiation therapy (RT) in patients receiving tangential RT for left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2005, a total of 153 patients were enrolled onto an institutional review board-approved prospective study and had pre- and serial post-RT (6-60 months) cardiac perfusion scans to assess for perfusion defects. Of the patients, 108 had normal pre-RT perfusion scans and available follow-up data. The impact of patient-specific factors onmore » the rate of perfusion defects was assessed at various time points using univariate and multivariate analysis. The impact of set-up errors on the rate of perfusion defects was also analyzed using a one-tailed Fisher's Exact test. Results: Consistent with our prior results, the volume of LV in the RT field was the most significant predictor of perfusion defects on both univariate (p = 0.0005 to 0.0058) and multivariate analysis (p = 0.0026 to 0.0029). Body mass index (BMI) was the only significant patient-specific factor on both univariate (p = 0.0005 to 0.022) and multivariate analysis (p = 0.0091 to 0.05). In patients with very small volumes of LV in the planned RT fields, the rate of perfusion defects was significantly higher when the fields set-up 'too deep' (83% vs. 30%, p = 0.059). The frequency of deep set-up errors was significantly higher among patients with BMI {>=}25 kg/m{sup 2} compared with patients of normal weight (47% vs. 28%, p = 0.068). Conclusions: BMI {>=}25 kg/m{sup 2} may be a significant risk factor for cardiac toxicity after RT for left-sided breast cancer, possibly because of more frequent deep set-up errors resulting in the inclusion of additional heart in the RT fields. Further study is necessary to better understand the impact of patient-specific factors and set-up errors on the development of RT-induced perfusion defects.« less

A Nonlinear Adaptive Filter for Gyro Thermal Bias Error Cancellation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galante, Joseph M.; Sanner, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Deterministic errors in angular rate gyros, such as thermal biases, can have a significant impact on spacecraft attitude knowledge. In particular, thermal biases are often the dominant error source in MEMS gyros after calibration. Filters, such as J\\,fEKFs, are commonly used to mitigate the impact of gyro errors and gyro noise on spacecraft closed loop pointing accuracy, but often have difficulty in rapidly changing thermal environments and can be computationally expensive. In this report an existing nonlinear adaptive filter is used as the basis for a new nonlinear adaptive filter designed to estimate and cancel thermal bias effects. A description of the filter is presented along with an implementation suitable for discrete-time applications. A simulation analysis demonstrates the performance of the filter in the presence of noisy measurements and provides a comparison with existing techniques.

Methodology issues concerning the accuracy of kinematic data collection and analysis using the ariel performance analysis system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilmington, R. P.; Klute, Glenn K. (Editor); Carroll, Amy E. (Editor); Stuart, Mark A. (Editor); Poliner, Jeff (Editor); Rajulu, Sudhakar (Editor); Stanush, Julie (Editor)

1992-01-01

Kinematics, the study of motion exclusive of the influences of mass and force, is one of the primary methods used for the analysis of human biomechanical systems as well as other types of mechanical systems. The Anthropometry and Biomechanics Laboratory (ABL) in the Crew Interface Analysis section of the Man-Systems Division performs both human body kinematics as well as mechanical system kinematics using the Ariel Performance Analysis System (APAS). The APAS supports both analysis of analog signals (e.g. force plate data collection) as well as digitization and analysis of video data. The current evaluations address several methodology issues concerning the accuracy of the kinematic data collection and analysis used in the ABL. This document describes a series of evaluations performed to gain quantitative data pertaining to position and constant angular velocity movements under several operating conditions. Two-dimensional as well as three-dimensional data collection and analyses were completed in a controlled laboratory environment using typical hardware setups. In addition, an evaluation was performed to evaluate the accuracy impact due to a single axis camera offset. Segment length and positional data exhibited errors within 3 percent when using three-dimensional analysis and yielded errors within 8 percent through two-dimensional analysis (Direct Linear Software). Peak angular velocities displayed errors within 6 percent through three-dimensional analyses and exhibited errors of 12 percent when using two-dimensional analysis (Direct Linear Software). The specific results from this series of evaluations and their impacts on the methodology issues of kinematic data collection and analyses are presented in detail. The accuracy levels observed in these evaluations are also presented.

Impact of a reengineered electronic error-reporting system on medication event reporting and care process improvements at an urban medical center.

PubMed

McKaig, Donald; Collins, Christine; Elsaid, Khaled A

2014-09-01

A study was conducted to evaluate the impact of a reengineered approach to electronic error reporting at a 719-bed multidisciplinary urban medical center. The main outcome of interest was the monthly reported medication errors during the preimplementation (20 months) and postimplementation (26 months) phases. An interrupted time series analysis was used to describe baseline errors, immediate change following implementation of the current electronic error-reporting system (e-ERS), and trend of error reporting during postimplementation. Errors were categorized according to severity using the National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention (NCC MERP) Medication Error Index classifications. Reported errors were further analyzed by reporter and error site. During preimplementation, the monthly reported errors mean was 40.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 36.3-43.7). Immediately following e-ERS implementation, monthly reported errors significantly increased by 19.4 errors (95% CI: 8.4-30.5). The change in slope of reported errors trend was estimated at 0.76 (95% CI: 0.07-1.22). Near misses and no-patient-harm errors accounted for 90% of all errors, while errors that caused increased patient monitoring or temporary harm accounted for 9% and 1%, respectively. Nurses were the most frequent reporters, while physicians were more likely to report high-severity errors. Medical care units accounted for approximately half of all reported errors. Following the intervention, there was a significant increase in reporting of prevented errors and errors that reached the patient with no resultant harm. This improvement in reporting was sustained for 26 months and has contributed to designing and implementing quality improvement initiatives to enhance the safety of the medication use process.

Impact of TRMM and SSM/I-derived Precipitation and Moisture Data on the GEOS Global Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Olson, William S.

1999-01-01

Current global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation, evaporation, and related cloud and moisture in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of space-based rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) estimates to constrain these hydrological parameters in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. We present results showing that assimilating the 6-hour averaged rain rates and TPW estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments improves not only the precipitation and moisture estimates but also reduce state-dependent systematic errors in key climate parameters directly linked to convection such as the outgoing longwave radiation, clouds, and the large-scale circulation. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts beyond 1 day, but the impact is relatively modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged analysis. The study shows that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, improving the short-range forecast is not necessarily prerequisite for improving the assimilation as a climate data set. The full impact of a given type of observation on the assimilated data set should not be measured solely in terms of forecast skills.

CPO Prediction: Accuracy Assessment and Impact on UT1 Intensive Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malkin, Zinovy

2010-01-01

The UT1 Intensive results heavily depend on the celestial pole offset (CPO) model used during data processing. Since accurate CPO values are available with a delay of two to four weeks, CPO predictions are necessarily applied to the UT1 Intensive data analysis, and errors in the predictions can influence the operational UT1 accuracy. In this paper we assess the real accuracy of CPO prediction using the actual IERS and PUL predictions made in 2007-2009. Also, results of operational processing were analyzed to investigate the actual impact of EOP prediction errors on the rapid UT1 results. It was found that the impact of CPO prediction errors is at a level of several microseconds, whereas the impact of the inaccuracy in the polar motion prediction may be about one order of magnitude larger for ultra-rapid UT1 results. The situation can be amended if the IERS Rapid solution will be updated more frequently.

Dynamic analysis of Apollo-Salyut/Soyuz docking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schliesing, J. A.

1972-01-01

The use of a docking-system computer program in analyzing the dynamic environment produced by two impacting spacecraft and the attitude control systems is discussed. Performance studies were conducted to determine the mechanism load and capture sensitivity to parametric changes in the initial impact conditions. As indicated by the studies, capture latching is most sensitive to vehicle angular-alinement errors and is least sensitive to lateral-miss error. As proved by load-sensitivity studies, peak loads acting on the Apollo spacecraft are considerably lower than the Apollo design-limit loads.

Analysis of a planetary-rotation system for evaporated optical coatings.

PubMed

Oliver, J B

2016-10-20

The impact of planetary design considerations for optical coating deposition is analyzed, including the ideal number of planets, variations in system performance, and the deviation of planet motion from the ideal. System capacity is maximized for four planets, although substrate size can significantly influence this result. Guidance is provided in the design of high-performance deposition systems based on the relative impact of different error modes. Errors in planet mounting such that the planet surface is not perpendicular to the axis of rotation are particularly problematic, suggesting planetary design modifications would be appropriate.

Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Brakenhoff, Timo B; van Smeden, Maarten; Visseren, Frank L J; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2018-01-01

With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data'), measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error) is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate). For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

The impact of information technology and organizational focus on the visibility of patient care errors.

PubMed

Walston, Stephen L; Mwachofi, Ari; Aldosari, Bakheet; Al-Omar, Badran A; Yousef, Asmaa Al; Sheikh, Asiya

2010-01-01

INVESTIGATED: The implementation of information systems and the creation of an open culture, characterized by emphasis on patient safety and problem solving, are 2 means suggested to improve health care quality. This study examines the effects of use of information technology and focus on patient safety and problem solving on the visibility of patient care errors. A survey of nurses in Saudi Arabia is analyzed by means of factor analysis and multiregression analysis to examine nurses' use of information technology and culture in controlling errors. Our research suggests that greater use of information technology to control patient care errors may reduce the prevalence of such errors while an increased focus on patient safety and problem solving facilitates an open environment where errors can be more openly discussed and addressed. The use of technology appears to have a role in decreasing errors. Yet, an organization that focuses on problem solving and patient safety can open lines of communication and create a culture in which errors can be discussed and resolved.

Impact and quantification of the sources of error in DNA pooling designs.

PubMed

Jawaid, A; Sham, P

2009-01-01

The analysis of genome wide variation offers the possibility of unravelling the genes involved in the pathogenesis of disease. Genome wide association studies are also particularly useful for identifying and validating targets for therapeutic intervention as well as for detecting markers for drug efficacy and side effects. The cost of such large-scale genetic association studies may be reduced substantially by the analysis of pooled DNA from multiple individuals. However, experimental errors inherent in pooling studies lead to a potential increase in the false positive rate and a loss in power compared to individual genotyping. Here we quantify various sources of experimental error using empirical data from typical pooling experiments and corresponding individual genotyping counts using two statistical methods. We provide analytical formulas for calculating these different errors in the absence of complete information, such as replicate pool formation, and for adjusting for the errors in the statistical analysis. We demonstrate that DNA pooling has the potential of estimating allele frequencies accurately, and adjusting the pooled allele frequency estimates for differential allelic amplification considerably improves accuracy. Estimates of the components of error show that differential allelic amplification is the most important contributor to the error variance in absolute allele frequency estimation, followed by allele frequency measurement and pool formation errors. Our results emphasise the importance of minimising experimental errors and obtaining correct error estimates in genetic association studies.

Impact of temporal upscaling and chemical transport model horizontal resolution on reducing ozone exposure misclassification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yadong; Serre, Marc L.; Reyes, Jeanette M.; Vizuete, William

2017-10-01

We have developed a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework that integrates observations from a surface monitoring network and predictions from a Chemical Transport Model (CTM) to create improved exposure estimates that can be resolved into any spatial and temporal resolution. The flexibility of the framework allows for input of data in any choice of time scales and CTM predictions of any spatial resolution with varying associated degrees of estimation error and cost in terms of implementation and computation. This study quantifies the impact on exposure estimation error due to these choices by first comparing estimations errors when BME relied on ozone concentration data either as an hourly average, the daily maximum 8-h average (DM8A), or the daily 24-h average (D24A). Our analysis found that the use of DM8A and D24A data, although less computationally intensive, reduced estimation error more when compared to the use of hourly data. This was primarily due to the poorer CTM model performance in the hourly average predicted ozone. Our second analysis compared spatial variability and estimation errors when BME relied on CTM predictions with a grid cell resolution of 12 × 12 km2 versus a coarser resolution of 36 × 36 km2. Our analysis found that integrating the finer grid resolution CTM predictions not only reduced estimation error, but also increased the spatial variability in daily ozone estimates by 5 times. This improvement was due to the improved spatial gradients and model performance found in the finer resolved CTM simulation. The integration of observational and model predictions that is permitted in a BME framework continues to be a powerful approach for improving exposure estimates of ambient air pollution. The results of this analysis demonstrate the importance of also understanding model performance variability and its implications on exposure error.

Procrustes-based geometric morphometrics on MRI images: An example of inter-operator bias in 3D landmarks and its impact on big datasets.

PubMed

Daboul, Amro; Ivanovska, Tatyana; Bülow, Robin; Biffar, Reiner; Cardini, Andrea

2018-01-01

Using 3D anatomical landmarks from adult human head MRIs, we assessed the magnitude of inter-operator differences in Procrustes-based geometric morphometric analyses. An in depth analysis of both absolute and relative error was performed in a subsample of individuals with replicated digitization by three different operators. The effect of inter-operator differences was also explored in a large sample of more than 900 individuals. Although absolute error was not unusual for MRI measurements, including bone landmarks, shape was particularly affected by differences among operators, with up to more than 30% of sample variation accounted for by this type of error. The magnitude of the bias was such that it dominated the main pattern of bone and total (all landmarks included) shape variation, largely surpassing the effect of sex differences between hundreds of men and women. In contrast, however, we found higher reproducibility in soft-tissue nasal landmarks, despite relatively larger errors in estimates of nasal size. Our study exemplifies the assessment of measurement error using geometric morphometrics on landmarks from MRIs and stresses the importance of relating it to total sample variance within the specific methodological framework being used. In summary, precise landmarks may not necessarily imply negligible errors, especially in shape data; indeed, size and shape may be differentially impacted by measurement error and different types of landmarks may have relatively larger or smaller errors. Importantly, and consistently with other recent studies using geometric morphometrics on digital images (which, however, were not specific to MRI data), this study showed that inter-operator biases can be a major source of error in the analysis of large samples, as those that are becoming increasingly common in the 'era of big data'.

Procrustes-based geometric morphometrics on MRI images: An example of inter-operator bias in 3D landmarks and its impact on big datasets

PubMed Central

Ivanovska, Tatyana; Bülow, Robin; Biffar, Reiner; Cardini, Andrea

2018-01-01

Using 3D anatomical landmarks from adult human head MRIs, we assessed the magnitude of inter-operator differences in Procrustes-based geometric morphometric analyses. An in depth analysis of both absolute and relative error was performed in a subsample of individuals with replicated digitization by three different operators. The effect of inter-operator differences was also explored in a large sample of more than 900 individuals. Although absolute error was not unusual for MRI measurements, including bone landmarks, shape was particularly affected by differences among operators, with up to more than 30% of sample variation accounted for by this type of error. The magnitude of the bias was such that it dominated the main pattern of bone and total (all landmarks included) shape variation, largely surpassing the effect of sex differences between hundreds of men and women. In contrast, however, we found higher reproducibility in soft-tissue nasal landmarks, despite relatively larger errors in estimates of nasal size. Our study exemplifies the assessment of measurement error using geometric morphometrics on landmarks from MRIs and stresses the importance of relating it to total sample variance within the specific methodological framework being used. In summary, precise landmarks may not necessarily imply negligible errors, especially in shape data; indeed, size and shape may be differentially impacted by measurement error and different types of landmarks may have relatively larger or smaller errors. Importantly, and consistently with other recent studies using geometric morphometrics on digital images (which, however, were not specific to MRI data), this study showed that inter-operator biases can be a major source of error in the analysis of large samples, as those that are becoming increasingly common in the 'era of big data'. PMID:29787586

The Relation Between Inflation in Type-I and Type-II Error Rate and Population Divergence in Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Multi-Ethnic Populations.

PubMed

Derks, E M; Zwinderman, A H; Gamazon, E R

2017-05-01

Population divergence impacts the degree of population stratification in Genome Wide Association Studies. We aim to: (i) investigate type-I error rate as a function of population divergence (F ST ) in multi-ethnic (admixed) populations; (ii) evaluate the statistical power and effect size estimates; and (iii) investigate the impact of population stratification on the results of gene-based analyses. Quantitative phenotypes were simulated. Type-I error rate was investigated for Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with varying levels of F ST between the ancestral European and African populations. Type-II error rate was investigated for a SNP characterized by a high value of F ST . In all tests, genomic MDS components were included to correct for population stratification. Type-I and type-II error rate was adequately controlled in a population that included two distinct ethnic populations but not in admixed samples. Statistical power was reduced in the admixed samples. Gene-based tests showed no residual inflation in type-I error rate.

The approach of Bayesian model indicates media awareness of medical errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravichandran, K.; Arulchelvan, S.

2016-06-01

This research study brings out the factors behind the increase in medical malpractices in the Indian subcontinent in the present day environment and impacts of television media awareness towards it. Increased media reporting of medical malpractices and errors lead to hospitals taking corrective action and improve the quality of medical services that they provide. The model of Cultivation Theory can be used to measure the influence of media in creating awareness of medical errors. The patient's perceptions of various errors rendered by the medical industry from different parts of India were taken up for this study. Bayesian method was used for data analysis and it gives absolute values to indicate satisfaction of the recommended values. To find out the impact of maintaining medical records of a family online by the family doctor in reducing medical malpractices which creates the importance of service quality in medical industry through the ICT.

Soil pH Errors Propagation from Measurements to Spatial Predictions - Cost Benefit Analysis and Risk Assessment Implications for Practitioners and Modelers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, P. R.; Libohova, Z.; Seybold, C. A.; Wills, S. A.; Peaslee, S.; Beaudette, D.; Lindbo, D. L.

2017-12-01

The measurement errors and spatial prediction uncertainties of soil properties in the modeling community are usually assessed against measured values when available. However, of equal importance is the assessment of errors and uncertainty impacts on cost benefit analysis and risk assessments. Soil pH was selected as one of the most commonly measured soil properties used for liming recommendations. The objective of this study was to assess the error size from different sources and their implications with respect to management decisions. Error sources include measurement methods, laboratory sources, pedotransfer functions, database transections, spatial aggregations, etc. Several databases of measured and predicted soil pH were used for this study including the United States National Cooperative Soil Survey Characterization Database (NCSS-SCDB), the US Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. The distribution of errors among different sources from measurement methods to spatial aggregation showed a wide range of values. The greatest RMSE of 0.79 pH units was from spatial aggregation (SSURGO vs Kriging), while the measurement methods had the lowest RMSE of 0.06 pH units. Assuming the order of data acquisition based on the transaction distance i.e. from measurement method to spatial aggregation the RMSE increased from 0.06 to 0.8 pH units suggesting an "error propagation". This has major implications for practitioners and modeling community. Most soil liming rate recommendations are based on 0.1 pH unit increments, while the desired soil pH level increments are based on 0.4 to 0.5 pH units. Thus, even when the measured and desired target soil pH are the same most guidelines recommend 1 ton ha-1 lime, which translates in 111 ha-1 that the farmer has to factor in the cost-benefit analysis. However, this analysis need to be based on uncertainty predictions (0.5-1.0 pH units) rather than measurement errors (0.1 pH units) which would translate in 555-1,111 investment that need to be assessed against the risk. The modeling community can benefit from such analysis, however, error size and spatial distribution for global and regional predictions need to be assessed against the variability of other drivers and impact on management decisions.

Evaluation of the impact of observations on blended sea surface winds in a two-dimensional variational scheme using degrees of freedom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ting; Xiang, Jie; Fei, Jianfang; Wang, Yi; Liu, Chunxia; Li, Yuanxiang

2017-12-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the observational impacts on blended sea surface winds from a two-dimensional variational data assimilation (2D-Var) scheme. We begin by briefly introducing the analysis sensitivity with respect to observations in variational data assimilation systems and its relationship with the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS), and then the DFS concept is applied to the 2D-Var sea surface wind blending scheme. Two methods, a priori and a posteriori, are used to estimate the DFS of the zonal ( u) and meridional ( v) components of winds in the 2D-Var blending scheme. The a posteriori method can obtain almost the same results as the a priori method. Because only by-products of the blending scheme are used for the a posteriori method, the computation time is reduced significantly. The magnitude of the DFS is critically related to the observational and background error statistics. Changing the observational and background error variances can affect the DFS value. Because the observation error variances are assumed to be uniform, the observational influence at each observational location is related to the background error variance, and the observations located at the place where there are larger background error variances have larger influences. The average observational influence of u and v with respect to the analysis is about 40%, implying that the background influence with respect to the analysis is about 60%.

The Sensitivity of Adverse Event Cost Estimates to Diagnostic Coding Error

PubMed Central

Wardle, Gavin; Wodchis, Walter P; Laporte, Audrey; Anderson, Geoffrey M; Baker, Ross G

2012-01-01

Objective To examine the impact of diagnostic coding error on estimates of hospital costs attributable to adverse events. Data Sources Original and reabstracted medical records of 9,670 complex medical and surgical admissions at 11 hospital corporations in Ontario from 2002 to 2004. Patient specific costs, not including physician payments, were retrieved from the Ontario Case Costing Initiative database. Study Design Adverse events were identified among the original and reabstracted records using ICD10-CA (Canadian adaptation of ICD10) codes flagged as postadmission complications. Propensity score matching and multivariate regression analysis were used to estimate the cost of the adverse events and to determine the sensitivity of cost estimates to diagnostic coding error. Principal Findings Estimates of the cost of the adverse events ranged from $16,008 (metabolic derangement) to $30,176 (upper gastrointestinal bleeding). Coding errors caused the total cost attributable to the adverse events to be underestimated by 16 percent. The impact of coding error on adverse event cost estimates was highly variable at the organizational level. Conclusions Estimates of adverse event costs are highly sensitive to coding error. Adverse event costs may be significantly underestimated if the likelihood of error is ignored. PMID:22091908

Overcoming bias and systematic errors in next generation sequencing data.

PubMed

Taub, Margaret A; Corrada Bravo, Hector; Irizarry, Rafael A

2010-12-10

Considerable time and effort has been spent in developing analysis and quality assessment methods to allow the use of microarrays in a clinical setting. As is the case for microarrays and other high-throughput technologies, data from new high-throughput sequencing technologies are subject to technological and biological biases and systematic errors that can impact downstream analyses. Only when these issues can be readily identified and reliably adjusted for will clinical applications of these new technologies be feasible. Although much work remains to be done in this area, we describe consistently observed biases that should be taken into account when analyzing high-throughput sequencing data. In this article, we review current knowledge about these biases, discuss their impact on analysis results, and propose solutions.

Impact of electronic chemotherapy order forms on prescribing errors at an urban medical center: results from an interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Elsaid, K; Truong, T; Monckeberg, M; McCarthy, H; Butera, J; Collins, C

2013-12-01

To evaluate the impact of electronic standardized chemotherapy templates on incidence and types of prescribing errors. A quasi-experimental interrupted time series with segmented regression. A 700-bed multidisciplinary tertiary care hospital with an ambulatory cancer center. A multidisciplinary team including oncology physicians, nurses, pharmacists and information technologists. Standardized, regimen-specific, chemotherapy prescribing forms were developed and implemented over a 32-month period. Trend of monthly prevented prescribing errors per 1000 chemotherapy doses during the pre-implementation phase (30 months), immediate change in the error rate from pre-implementation to implementation and trend of errors during the implementation phase. Errors were analyzed according to their types: errors in communication or transcription, errors in dosing calculation and errors in regimen frequency or treatment duration. Relative risk (RR) of errors in the post-implementation phase (28 months) compared with the pre-implementation phase was computed with 95% confidence interval (CI). Baseline monthly error rate was stable with 16.7 prevented errors per 1000 chemotherapy doses. A 30% reduction in prescribing errors was observed with initiating the intervention. With implementation, a negative change in the slope of prescribing errors was observed (coefficient = -0.338; 95% CI: -0.612 to -0.064). The estimated RR of transcription errors was 0.74; 95% CI (0.59-0.92). The estimated RR of dosing calculation errors was 0.06; 95% CI (0.03-0.10). The estimated RR of chemotherapy frequency/duration errors was 0.51; 95% CI (0.42-0.62). Implementing standardized chemotherapy-prescribing templates significantly reduced all types of prescribing errors and improved chemotherapy safety.

Performance analysis of adaptive equalization for coherent acoustic communications in the time-varying ocean environment.

PubMed

Preisig, James C

2005-07-01

Equations are derived for analyzing the performance of channel estimate based equalizers. The performance is characterized in terms of the mean squared soft decision error (sigma2(s)) of each equalizer. This error is decomposed into two components. These are the minimum achievable error (sigma2(0)) and the excess error (sigma2(e)). The former is the soft decision error that would be realized by the equalizer if the filter coefficient calculation were based upon perfect knowledge of the channel impulse response and statistics of the interfering noise field. The latter is the additional soft decision error that is realized due to errors in the estimates of these channel parameters. These expressions accurately predict the equalizer errors observed in the processing of experimental data by a channel estimate based decision feedback equalizer (DFE) and a passive time-reversal equalizer. Further expressions are presented that allow equalizer performance to be predicted given the scattering function of the acoustic channel. The analysis using these expressions yields insights into the features of surface scattering that most significantly impact equalizer performance in shallow water environments and motivates the implementation of a DFE that is robust with respect to channel estimation errors.

Professional Development Processes That Promote Teacher Change: The Case of a Video-Based Program Focused on Leveraging Students' Mathematical Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santagata, Rossella; Bray, Wendy

2016-01-01

This study examined processes at the core of teacher professional development (PD) experiences that might positively impact teacher learning and more specifically teacher change. Four processes were considered in the context of a PD program focused on student mathematical errors: analysis of students' mathematical misconceptions as a lever for…

Error modeling and sensitivity analysis of a parallel robot with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuzhen; Xie, Fugui; Liu, Xinjun; Zhou, Yanhua

2014-07-01

Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parallelogram structures included by the robots as a link. As the established error model fails to reflect the error feature of the parallelogram structures, the effect of accuracy design and kinematic calibration based on the error model come to be undermined. An error modeling methodology is proposed to establish an error model of parallel robots with parallelogram structures. The error model can embody the geometric errors of all joints, including the joints of parallelogram structures. Thus it can contain more exhaustively the factors that reduce the accuracy of the robot. Based on the error model and some sensitivity indices defined in the sense of statistics, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Accordingly, some atlases are depicted to express each geometric error's influence on the moving platform's pose errors. From these atlases, the geometric errors that have greater impact on the accuracy of the moving platform are identified, and some sensitive areas where the pose errors of the moving platform are extremely sensitive to the geometric errors are also figured out. By taking into account the error factors which are generally neglected in all existing modeling methods, the proposed modeling method can thoroughly disclose the process of error transmission and enhance the efficacy of accuracy design and calibration.

Nuclear Reaction Models Responsible for Simulation of Neutron-induced Soft Errors in Microelectronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Y.; Abe, S.

2014-06-01

Terrestrial neutron-induced soft errors in MOSFETs from a 65 nm down to a 25 nm design rule are analyzed by means of multi-scale Monte Carlo simulation using the PHITS-HyENEXSS code system. Nuclear reaction models implemented in PHITS code are validated by comparisons with experimental data. From the analysis of calculated soft error rates, it is clarified that secondary He and H ions provide a major impact on soft errors with decreasing critical charge. It is also found that the high energy component from 10 MeV up to several hundreds of MeV in secondary cosmic-ray neutrons has the most significant source of soft errors regardless of design rule.

Coastal Zone Color Scanner atmospheric correction algorithm - Multiple scattering effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, Howard R.; Castano, Diego J.

1987-01-01

Errors due to multiple scattering which are expected to be encountered in application of the current Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) atmospheric correction algorithm are analyzed. The analysis is based on radiative transfer computations in model atmospheres, in which the aerosols and molecules are distributed vertically in an exponential manner, with most of the aerosol scattering located below the molecular scattering. A unique feature of the analysis is that it is carried out in scan coordinates rather than typical earth-sun coordinates, making it possible to determine the errors along typical CZCS scan lines. Information provided by the analysis makes it possible to judge the efficacy of the current algorithm with the current sensor and to estimate the impact of the algorithm-induced errors on a variety of applications.

Analysis of a planetary-rotation system for evaporated optical coatings

DOE PAGES

Oliver, J. B.

2016-01-01

The impact of planetary-design considerations for optical coating deposition is analyzed, including the ideal number of planets, variations in system performance, and the deviation of planet motion from the ideal. System capacity is maximized for four planets, although substrate size can significantly influence this result. Guidance is provided in the design of high-performance deposition systems based on the relative impact of different error modes. As a result, errors in planet mounting such that the planet surface is not perpendicular to its axis of rotation are particularly problematic, suggesting planetary design modifications would be appropriate.

Pollen flow in the wildservice tree, Sorbus torminalis (L.) Crantz. I. Evaluating the paternity analysis procedure in continuous populations.

PubMed

Oddou-Muratorio, S; Houot, M-L; Demesure-Musch, B; Austerlitz, F

2003-12-01

The joint development of polymorphic molecular markers and paternity analysis methods provides new approaches to investigate ongoing patterns of pollen flow in natural plant populations. However, paternity studies are hindered by false paternity assignment and the nondetection of true fathers. To gauge the risk of these two types of errors, we performed a simulation study to investigate the impact on paternity analysis of: (i) the assumed values for the size of the breeding male population (NBMP), and (ii) the rate of scoring error in genotype assessment. Our simulations were based on microsatellite data obtained from a natural population of the entomophilous wild service tree, Sorbus torminalis (L.) Crantz. We show that an accurate estimate of NBMP is required to minimize both types of errors, and we assess the reliability of a technique used to estimate NBMP based on parent-offspring genetic data. We then show that scoring errors in genotype assessment only slightly affect the assessment of paternity relationships, and conclude that it is generally better to neglect the scoring error rate in paternity analyses within a nonisolated population.

Instrument Reflections and Scene Amplitude Modulation in a Polychromatic Microwave Quadrature Interferometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dobson, Chris C.; Jones, Jonathan E.; Chavers, Greg

2003-01-01

A polychromatic microwave quadrature interferometer has been characterized using several laboratory plasmas. Reflections between the transmitter and the receiver have been observed, and the effects of including reflection terms in the data reduction equation have been examined. An error analysis which includes the reflections, modulation of the scene beam amplitude by the plasma, and simultaneous measurements at two frequencies has been applied to the empirical database, and the results are summarized. For reflection amplitudes around 1096, the reflection terms were found to reduce the calculated error bars for electron density measurements by about a factor of 2. The impact of amplitude modulation is also quantified. In the complete analysis, the mean error bar for high- density measurements is 7.596, and the mean phase shift error for low-density measurements is 1.2". .

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis. Revision 1.12

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Ross N.; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Grassotti, Christopher

1997-01-01

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Impact of genotyping errors on statistical power of association tests in genomic analyses: A case study

PubMed Central

Hou, Lin; Sun, Ning; Mane, Shrikant; Sayward, Fred; Rajeevan, Nallakkandi; Cheung, Kei-Hoi; Cho, Kelly; Pyarajan, Saiju; Aslan, Mihaela; Miller, Perry; Harvey, Philip D.; Gaziano, J. Michael; Concato, John; Zhao, Hongyu

2017-01-01

A key step in genomic studies is to assess high throughput measurements across millions of markers for each participant’s DNA, either using microarrays or sequencing techniques. Accurate genotype calling is essential for downstream statistical analysis of genotype-phenotype associations, and next generation sequencing (NGS) has recently become a more common approach in genomic studies. How the accuracy of variant calling in NGS-based studies affects downstream association analysis has not, however, been studied using empirical data in which both microarrays and NGS were available. In this article, we investigate the impact of variant calling errors on the statistical power to identify associations between single nucleotides and disease, and on associations between multiple rare variants and disease. Both differential and nondifferential genotyping errors are considered. Our results show that the power of burden tests for rare variants is strongly influenced by the specificity in variant calling, but is rather robust with regard to sensitivity. By using the variant calling accuracies estimated from a substudy of a Cooperative Studies Program project conducted by the Department of Veterans Affairs, we show that the power of association tests is mostly retained with commonly adopted variant calling pipelines. An R package, GWAS.PC, is provided to accommodate power analysis that takes account of genotyping errors (http://zhaocenter.org/software/). PMID:28019059

Vibration characteristics of teak wood filled steel tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danawade, Bharatesh Adappa; Malagi, Ravindra Rachappa

2018-05-01

The objective of this paper is to determine fundamental frequency and damping ratio of teak wood filled steel tubes. Mechanically bonded teak wood filled steel tubes have been evaluated by experimental impact hammer test using modal analysis. The results of impact hammer test were verified and validated by finite element tool ANSYS using harmonic analysis. The error between the two methods was observed to be within acceptable limit.

Incidence of speech recognition errors in the emergency department.

PubMed

Goss, Foster R; Zhou, Li; Weiner, Scott G

2016-09-01

Physician use of computerized speech recognition (SR) technology has risen in recent years due to its ease of use and efficiency at the point of care. However, error rates between 10 and 23% have been observed, raising concern about the number of errors being entered into the permanent medical record, their impact on quality of care and medical liability that may arise. Our aim was to determine the incidence and types of SR errors introduced by this technology in the emergency department (ED). Level 1 emergency department with 42,000 visits/year in a tertiary academic teaching hospital. A random sample of 100 notes dictated by attending emergency physicians (EPs) using SR software was collected from the ED electronic health record between January and June 2012. Two board-certified EPs annotated the notes and conducted error analysis independently. An existing classification schema was adopted to classify errors into eight errors types. Critical errors deemed to potentially impact patient care were identified. There were 128 errors in total or 1.3 errors per note, and 14.8% (n=19) errors were judged to be critical. 71% of notes contained errors, and 15% contained one or more critical errors. Annunciation errors were the highest at 53.9% (n=69), followed by deletions at 18.0% (n=23) and added words at 11.7% (n=15). Nonsense errors, homonyms and spelling errors were present in 10.9% (n=14), 4.7% (n=6), and 0.8% (n=1) of notes, respectively. There were no suffix or dictionary errors. Inter-annotator agreement was 97.8%. This is the first estimate at classifying speech recognition errors in dictated emergency department notes. Speech recognition errors occur commonly with annunciation errors being the most frequent. Error rates were comparable if not lower than previous studies. 15% of errors were deemed critical, potentially leading to miscommunication that could affect patient care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shuttle avionics and the goal language including the impact of error detection and redundancy management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flanders, J. H.; Helmers, C. T.; Stanten, S. F.

1973-01-01

The relationship is examined between the space shuttle onboard avionics and the ground test computer language GOAL when used in the onboard computers. The study is aimed at providing system analysis support to the feasibility analysis of a GOAL to HAL translator, where HAL is the language used to program the onboard computers for flight. The subject is dealt with in three aspects. First, the system configuration at checkout, the general checkout and launch sequences, and the inventory of subsystems are described. Secondly, the hierarchic organization of onboard software and different ways of introducing GOAL-derived software onboard are described. Also the flow of commands and test data during checkout is diagrammed. Finally, possible impact of error detection and redundancy management on the GOAL language is discussed.

A String of Mistakes: The Importance of Cascade Analysis in Describing, Counting, and Preventing Medical Errors

PubMed Central

Woolf, Steven H.; Kuzel, Anton J.; Dovey, Susan M.; Phillips, Robert L.

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND Notions about the most common errors in medicine currently rest on conjecture and weak epidemiologic evidence. We sought to determine whether cascade analysis is of value in clarifying the epidemiology and causes of errors and whether physician reports are sensitive to the impact of errors on patients. METHODS Eighteen US family physicians participating in a 6-country international study filed 75 anonymous error reports. The narratives were examined to identify the chain of events and the predominant proximal errors. We tabulated the consequences to patients, both reported by physicians and inferred by investigators. RESULTS A chain of errors was documented in 77% of incidents. Although 83% of the errors that ultimately occurred were mistakes in treatment or diagnosis, 2 of 3 were set in motion by errors in communication. Fully 80% of the errors that initiated cascades involved informational or personal miscommunication. Examples of informational miscommunication included communication breakdowns among colleagues and with patients (44%), misinformation in the medical record (21%), mishandling of patients’ requests and messages (18%), inaccessible medical records (12%), and inadequate reminder systems (5%). When asked whether the patient was harmed, physicians answered affirmatively in 43% of cases in which their narratives described harms. Psychological and emotional effects accounted for 17% of physician-reported consequences but 69% of investigator-inferred consequences. CONCLUSIONS Cascade analysis of physicians’ error reports is helpful in understanding the precipitant chain of events, but physicians provide incomplete information about how patients are affected. Miscommunication appears to play an important role in propagating diagnostic and treatment mistakes. PMID:15335130

[MODIS Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbott, Mark R.

1996-01-01

Our first activity is based on delivery of code to Bob Evans (University of Miami) for integration and eventual delivery to the MODIS Science Data Support Team. As we noted in our previous semi-annual report, coding required the development and analysis of an end-to-end model of fluorescence line height (FLH) errors and sensitivity. This model is described in a paper in press in Remote Sensing of the Environment. Once the code was delivered to Miami, we continue to use this error analysis to evaluate proposed changes in MODIS sensor specifications and performance. Simply evaluating such changes on a band by band basis may obscure the true impacts of changes in sensor performance that are manifested in the complete algorithm. This is especially true with FLH that is sensitive to band placement and width. The error model will be used by Howard Gordon (Miami) to evaluate the effects of absorbing aerosols on the FLH algorithm performance. Presently, FLH relies only on simple corrections for atmospheric effects (viewing geometry, Rayleigh scattering) without correcting for aerosols. Our analysis suggests that aerosols should have a small impact relative to changes in the quantum yield of fluorescence in phytoplankton. However, the effect of absorbing aerosol is a new process and will be evaluated by Gordon.

Predictability Experiments With the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, C. A.; Gelaro, R.; Rosmond, T. E.

2003-12-01

There are several areas of research in numerical weather prediction and atmospheric predictability, such as targeted observations and ensemble perturbation generation, where it is desirable to combine information about the uncertainty of the initial state with information about potential rapid perturbation growth. Singular vectors (SVs) provide a framework to accomplish this task in a mathematically rigorous and computationally feasible manner. In this study, SVs are calculated using the tangent and adjoint models of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The analysis error variance information produced by the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System is used as the initial-time SV norm. These VAR SVs are compared to SVs for which total energy is both the initial and final time norms (TE SVs). The incorporation of analysis error variance information has a significant impact on the structure and location of the SVs. This in turn has a significant impact on targeted observing applications. The utility and implications of such experiments in assessing the analysis error variance estimates will be explored. Computing support has been provided by the Department of Defense High Performance Computing Center at the Naval Oceanographic Office Major Shared Resource Center at Stennis, Mississippi.

Effects of data selection on the assimilation of AIRS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, Joanna; Brin, E.; Treadon, R.; Derber, J.; VanDelst, P.; DeSilva, A.; Marshall, J. Le; Poli, P.; Atlas, R.; Cruz, C.;

Effects of sterilization treatments on the analysis of TOC in water samples.

PubMed

Shi, Yiming; Xu, Lingfeng; Gong, Dongqin; Lu, Jun

2010-01-01

Decomposition experiments conducted with and without microbial processes are commonly used to study the effects of environmental microorganisms on the degradation of organic pollutants. However, the effects of biological pretreatment (sterilization) on organic matter often have a negative impact on such experiments. Based on the principle of water total organic carbon (TOC) analysis, the effects of physical sterilization treatments on determination of TOC and other water quality parameters were investigated. The results revealed that two conventional physical sterilization treatments, autoclaving and 60Co gamma-radiation sterilization, led to the direct decomposition of some organic pollutants, resulting in remarkable errors in the analysis of TOC in water samples. Furthermore, the extent of the errors varied with the intensity and the duration of sterilization treatments. Accordingly, a novel sterilization method for water samples, 0.45 microm micro-filtration coupled with ultraviolet radiation (MCUR), was developed in the present study. The results indicated that the MCUR method was capable of exerting a high bactericidal effect on the water sample while significantly decreasing the negative impact on the analysis of TOC and other water quality parameters. Before and after sterilization treatments, the relative errors of TOC determination could be controlled to lower than 3% for water samples with different categories and concentrations of organic pollutants by using MCUR.

Nuclear Reaction Models Responsible for Simulation of Neutron-induced Soft Errors in Microelectronics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watanabe, Y., E-mail: watanabe@aees.kyushu-u.ac.jp; Abe, S.

Terrestrial neutron-induced soft errors in MOSFETs from a 65 nm down to a 25 nm design rule are analyzed by means of multi-scale Monte Carlo simulation using the PHITS-HyENEXSS code system. Nuclear reaction models implemented in PHITS code are validated by comparisons with experimental data. From the analysis of calculated soft error rates, it is clarified that secondary He and H ions provide a major impact on soft errors with decreasing critical charge. It is also found that the high energy component from 10 MeV up to several hundreds of MeV in secondary cosmic-ray neutrons has the most significant sourcemore » of soft errors regardless of design rule.« less

New Methods for Assessing and Reducing Uncertainty in Microgravity Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giniaux, J. M.; Hooper, A. J.; Bagnardi, M.

2017-12-01

Microgravity surveying, also known as dynamic or 4D gravimetry is a time-dependent geophysical method used to detect mass fluctuations within the shallow crust, by analysing temporal changes in relative gravity measurements. We present here a detailed uncertainty analysis of temporal gravity measurements, considering for the first time all possible error sources, including tilt, error in drift estimations and timing errors. We find that some error sources that are actually ignored, can have a significant impact on the total error budget and it is therefore likely that some gravity signals may have been misinterpreted in previous studies. Our analysis leads to new methods for reducing some of the uncertainties associated with residual gravity estimation. In particular, we propose different approaches for drift estimation and free air correction depending on the survey set up. We also provide formulae to recalculate uncertainties for past studies and lay out a framework for best practice in future studies. We demonstrate our new approach on volcanic case studies, which include Kilauea in Hawaii and Askja in Iceland.

Mixtures of Berkson and classical covariate measurement error in the linear mixed model: Bias analysis and application to a study on ultrafine particles.

PubMed

Deffner, Veronika; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Breitner, Susanne; Schneider, Alexandra; Cyrys, Josef; Peters, Annette

2018-05-01

The ultrafine particle measurements in the Augsburger Umweltstudie, a panel study conducted in Augsburg, Germany, exhibit measurement error from various sources. Measurements of mobile devices show classical possibly individual-specific measurement error; Berkson-type error, which may also vary individually, occurs, if measurements of fixed monitoring stations are used. The combination of fixed site and individual exposure measurements results in a mixture of the two error types. We extended existing bias analysis approaches to linear mixed models with a complex error structure including individual-specific error components, autocorrelated errors, and a mixture of classical and Berkson error. Theoretical considerations and simulation results show, that autocorrelation may severely change the attenuation of the effect estimations. Furthermore, unbalanced designs and the inclusion of confounding variables influence the degree of attenuation. Bias correction with the method of moments using data with mixture measurement error partially yielded better results compared to the usage of incomplete data with classical error. Confidence intervals (CIs) based on the delta method achieved better coverage probabilities than those based on Bootstrap samples. Moreover, we present the application of these new methods to heart rate measurements within the Augsburger Umweltstudie: the corrected effect estimates were slightly higher than their naive equivalents. The substantial measurement error of ultrafine particle measurements has little impact on the results. The developed methodology is generally applicable to longitudinal data with measurement error. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Patient-reported Outcomes for Assessment of Quality of Life in Refractive Error: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Kandel, Himal; Khadka, Jyoti; Goggin, Michael; Pesudovs, Konrad

2017-12-01

This review has identified the best existing patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments in refractive error. The article highlights the limitations of the existing instruments and discusses the way forward. A systematic review was conducted to identify the types of PROs used in refractive error, to determine the quality of the existing PRO instruments in terms of their psychometric properties, and to determine the limitations in the content of the existing PRO instruments. Articles describing a PRO instrument measuring 1 or more domains of quality of life in people with refractive error were identified by electronic searches on the MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases. The information on content development, psychometric properties, validity, reliability, and responsiveness of those PRO instruments was extracted from the selected articles. The analysis was done based on a comprehensive set of assessment criteria. One hundred forty-eight articles describing 47 PRO instruments in refractive error were included in the review. Most of the articles (99 [66.9%]) used refractive error-specific PRO instruments. The PRO instruments comprised 19 refractive, 12 vision but nonrefractive, and 16 generic PRO instruments. Only 17 PRO instruments were validated in refractive error populations; six of them were developed using Rasch analysis. None of the PRO instruments has items across all domains of quality of life. The Quality of Life Impact of Refractive Correction, the Quality of Vision, and the Contact Lens Impact on Quality of Life have comparatively better quality with some limitations, compared with the other PRO instruments. This review describes the PRO instruments and informs the choice of an appropriate measure in refractive error. We identified need of a comprehensive and scientifically robust refractive error-specific PRO instrument. Item banking and computer-adaptive testing system can be the way to provide such an instrument.

Considerations for analysis of time-to-event outcomes measured with error: Bias and correction with SIMEX.

PubMed

Oh, Eric J; Shepherd, Bryan E; Lumley, Thomas; Shaw, Pamela A

2018-04-15

For time-to-event outcomes, a rich literature exists on the bias introduced by covariate measurement error in regression models, such as the Cox model, and methods of analysis to address this bias. By comparison, less attention has been given to understanding the impact or addressing errors in the failure time outcome. For many diseases, the timing of an event of interest (such as progression-free survival or time to AIDS progression) can be difficult to assess or reliant on self-report and therefore prone to measurement error. For linear models, it is well known that random errors in the outcome variable do not bias regression estimates. With nonlinear models, however, even random error or misclassification can introduce bias into estimated parameters. We compare the performance of 2 common regression models, the Cox and Weibull models, in the setting of measurement error in the failure time outcome. We introduce an extension of the SIMEX method to correct for bias in hazard ratio estimates from the Cox model and discuss other analysis options to address measurement error in the response. A formula to estimate the bias induced into the hazard ratio by classical measurement error in the event time for a log-linear survival model is presented. Detailed numerical studies are presented to examine the performance of the proposed SIMEX method under varying levels and parametric forms of the error in the outcome. We further illustrate the method with observational data on HIV outcomes from the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identification and assessment of common errors in the admission process of patients in Isfahan Fertility and Infertility Center based on "failure modes and effects analysis".

PubMed

Dehghan, Ashraf; Abumasoudi, Rouhollah Sheikh; Ehsanpour, Soheila

2016-01-01

Infertility and errors in the process of its treatment have a negative impact on infertile couples. The present study was aimed to identify and assess the common errors in the reception process by applying the approach of "failure modes and effects analysis" (FMEA). In this descriptive cross-sectional study, the admission process of fertility and infertility center of Isfahan was selected for evaluation of its errors based on the team members' decision. At first, the admission process was charted through observations and interviewing employees, holding multiple panels, and using FMEA worksheet, which has been used in many researches all over the world and also in Iran. Its validity was evaluated through content and face validity, and its reliability was evaluated through reviewing and confirmation of the obtained information by the FMEA team, and eventually possible errors, causes, and three indicators of severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection were determined and corrective actions were proposed. Data analysis was determined by the number of risk priority (RPN) which is calculated by multiplying the severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection. Twenty-five errors with RPN ≥ 125 was detected through the admission process, in which six cases of error had high priority in terms of severity and occurrence probability and were identified as high-risk errors. The team-oriented method of FMEA could be useful for assessment of errors and also to reduce the occurrence probability of errors.

[Validation of a method for notifying and monitoring medication errors in pediatrics].

PubMed

Guerrero-Aznar, M D; Jiménez-Mesa, E; Cotrina-Luque, J; Villalba-Moreno, A; Cumplido-Corbacho, R; Fernández-Fernández, L

2014-12-01

To analyze the impact of a multidisciplinary and decentralized safety committee in the pediatric management unit, and the joint implementation of a computing network application for reporting medication errors, monitoring the follow-up of the errors, and an analysis of the improvements introduced. An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional, pre-post intervention study was performed. An analysis was made of medication errors reported to the central safety committee in the twelve months prior to introduction, and those reported to the decentralized safety committee in the management unit in the nine months after implementation, using the computer application, and the strategies generated by the analysis of reported errors. Number of reported errors/10,000 days of stay, number of reported errors with harm per 10,000 days of stay, types of error, categories based on severity, stage of the process, and groups involved in the notification of medication errors. Reported medication errors increased 4.6 -fold, from 7.6 notifications of medication errors per 10,000 days of stay in the pre-intervention period to 36 in the post-intervention, rate ratio 0.21 (95% CI; 0.11-0.39) (P<.001). The medication errors with harm or requiring monitoring reported per 10,000 days of stay, was virtually unchanged from one period to the other ratio rate 0,77 (95% IC; 0,31-1,91) (P>.05). The notification of potential errors or errors without harm per 10,000 days of stay increased 17.4-fold (rate ratio 0.005., 95% CI; 0.001-0.026, P<.001). The increase in medication errors notified in the post-intervention period is a reflection of an increase in the motivation of health professionals to report errors through this new method. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, K.; Stajner, I.; Pawson, S.

2003-01-01

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Identifying Human Factors Issues in Aircraft Maintenance Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veinott, Elizabeth S.; Kanki, Barbara G.; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

Maintenance operations incidents submitted to the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) between 1986-1992 were systematically analyzed in order to identify issues relevant to human factors and crew coordination. This exploratory analysis involved 95 ASRS reports which represented a wide range of maintenance incidents. The reports were coded and analyzed according to the type of error (e.g, wrong part, procedural error, non-procedural error), contributing factors (e.g., individual, within-team, cross-team, procedure, tools), result of the error (e.g., aircraft damage or not) as well as the operational impact (e.g., aircraft flown to destination, air return, delay at gate). The main findings indicate that procedural errors were most common (48.4%) and that individual and team actions contributed to the errors in more than 50% of the cases. As for operational results, most errors were either corrected after landing at the destination (51.6%) or required the flight crew to stop enroute (29.5%). Interactions among these variables are also discussed. This analysis is a first step toward developing a taxonomy of crew coordination problems in maintenance. By understanding what variables are important and how they are interrelated, we may develop intervention strategies that are better tailored to the human factor issues involved.

A guide to evaluating linkage quality for the analysis of linked data.

PubMed

Harron, Katie L; Doidge, James C; Knight, Hannah E; Gilbert, Ruth E; Goldstein, Harvey; Cromwell, David A; van der Meulen, Jan H

2017-10-01

Linked datasets are an important resource for epidemiological and clinical studies, but linkage error can lead to biased results. For data security reasons, linkage of personal identifiers is often performed by a third party, making it difficult for researchers to assess the quality of the linked dataset in the context of specific research questions. This is compounded by a lack of guidance on how to determine the potential impact of linkage error. We describe how linkage quality can be evaluated and provide widely applicable guidance for both data providers and researchers. Using an illustrative example of a linked dataset of maternal and baby hospital records, we demonstrate three approaches for evaluating linkage quality: applying the linkage algorithm to a subset of gold standard data to quantify linkage error; comparing characteristics of linked and unlinked data to identify potential sources of bias; and evaluating the sensitivity of results to changes in the linkage procedure. These approaches can inform our understanding of the potential impact of linkage error and provide an opportunity to select the most appropriate linkage procedure for a specific analysis. Evaluating linkage quality in this way will improve the quality and transparency of epidemiological and clinical research using linked data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Rasch Analysis of the Student Refractive Error and Eyeglass Questionnaire

PubMed Central

Crescioni, Mabel; Messer, Dawn H.; Warholak, Terri L.; Miller, Joseph M.; Twelker, J. Daniel; Harvey, Erin M.

2014-01-01

Purpose To evaluate and refine a newly developed instrument, the Student Refractive Error and Eyeglasses Questionnaire (SREEQ), designed to measure the impact of uncorrected and corrected refractive error on vision-related quality of life (VRQoL) in school-aged children. Methods. A 38 statement instrument consisting of two parts was developed: Part A relates to perceptions regarding uncorrected vision and Part B relates to perceptions regarding corrected vision and includes other statements regarding VRQoL with spectacle correction. The SREEQ was administered to 200 Native American 6th through 12th grade students known to have previously worn and who currently require eyeglasses. Rasch analysis was conducted to evaluate the functioning of the SREEQ. Statements on Part A and Part B were analyzed to examine the dimensionality and constructs of the questionnaire, how well the items functioned, and the appropriateness of the response scale used. Results Rasch analysis suggested two items be eliminated and the measurement scale for matching items be reduced from a 4-point response scale to a 3-point response scale. With these modifications, categorical data were converted to interval level data, to conduct an item and person analysis. A shortened version of the SREEQ was constructed with these modifications, the SREEQ-R, which included the statements that were able to capture changes in VRQoL associated with spectacle wear for those with significant refractive error in our study population. Conclusions While the SREEQ Part B appears to be a have less than optimal reliability to assess the impact of spectacle correction on VRQoL in our student population, it is also able to detect statistically significant differences from pretest to posttest on both the group and individual levels to show that the instrument can assess the impact that glasses have on VRQoL. Further modifications to the questionnaire, such as those included in the SREEQ-R, could enhance its functionality. PMID:24811844

Analysis of the effects of Eye-Tracker performance on the pulse positioning errors during refractive surgery☆

PubMed Central

Arba-Mosquera, Samuel; Aslanides, Ioannis M.

2012-01-01

Purpose To analyze the effects of Eye-Tracker performance on the pulse positioning errors during refractive surgery. Methods A comprehensive model, which directly considers eye movements, including saccades, vestibular, optokinetic, vergence, and miniature, as well as, eye-tracker acquisition rate, eye-tracker latency time, scanner positioning time, laser firing rate, and laser trigger delay have been developed. Results Eye-tracker acquisition rates below 100 Hz correspond to pulse positioning errors above 1.5 mm. Eye-tracker latency times to about 15 ms correspond to pulse positioning errors of up to 3.5 mm. Scanner positioning times to about 9 ms correspond to pulse positioning errors of up to 2 mm. Laser firing rates faster than eye-tracker acquisition rates basically duplicate pulse-positioning errors. Laser trigger delays to about 300 μs have minor to no impact on pulse-positioning errors. Conclusions The proposed model can be used for comparison of laser systems used for ablation processes. Due to the pseudo-random nature of eye movements, positioning errors of single pulses are much larger than observed decentrations in the clinical settings. There is no single parameter that ‘alone’ minimizes the positioning error. It is the optimal combination of the several parameters that minimizes the error. The results of this analysis are important to understand the limitations of correcting very irregular ablation patterns.

Measurement error in time-series analysis: a simulation study comparing modelled and monitored data.

PubMed

Butland, Barbara K; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard W; Wilkinson, Paul; Heal, Mathew R; Doherty, Ruth M; Vieno, Massimo

2013-11-13

Assessing health effects from background exposure to air pollution is often hampered by the sparseness of pollution monitoring networks. However, regional atmospheric chemistry-transport models (CTMs) can provide pollution data with national coverage at fine geographical and temporal resolution. We used statistical simulation to compare the impact on epidemiological time-series analysis of additive measurement error in sparse monitor data as opposed to geographically and temporally complete model data. Statistical simulations were based on a theoretical area of 4 regions each consisting of twenty-five 5 km × 5 km grid-squares. In the context of a 3-year Poisson regression time-series analysis of the association between mortality and a single pollutant, we compared the error impact of using daily grid-specific model data as opposed to daily regional average monitor data. We investigated how this comparison was affected if we changed the number of grids per region containing a monitor. To inform simulations, estimates (e.g. of pollutant means) were obtained from observed monitor data for 2003-2006 for national network sites across the UK and corresponding model data that were generated by the EMEP-WRF CTM. Average within-site correlations between observed monitor and model data were 0.73 and 0.76 for rural and urban daily maximum 8-hour ozone respectively, and 0.67 and 0.61 for rural and urban loge(daily 1-hour maximum NO2). When regional averages were based on 5 or 10 monitors per region, health effect estimates exhibited little bias. However, with only 1 monitor per region, the regression coefficient in our time-series analysis was attenuated by an estimated 6% for urban background ozone, 13% for rural ozone, 29% for urban background loge(NO2) and 38% for rural loge(NO2). For grid-specific model data the corresponding figures were 19%, 22%, 54% and 44% respectively, i.e. similar for rural loge(NO2) but more marked for urban loge(NO2). Even if correlations between model and monitor data appear reasonably strong, additive classical measurement error in model data may lead to appreciable bias in health effect estimates. As process-based air pollution models become more widely used in epidemiological time-series analysis, assessments of error impact that include statistical simulation may be useful.

TH-B-BRC-00: How to Identify and Resolve Potential Clinical Errors Before They Impact Patients Treatment: Lessons Learned

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

2016-06-15

Radiation treatment consists of a chain of events influenced by the quality of machine operation, beam data commissioning, machine calibration, patient specific data, simulation, treatment planning, imaging and treatment delivery. There is always a chance that the clinical medical physicist may make or fail to detect an error in one of the events that may impact on the patient’s treatment. In the clinical scenario, errors may be systematic and, without peer review, may have a low detectability because they are not part of routine QA procedures. During treatment, there might be errors on machine that needs attention. External reviews ofmore » some of the treatment delivery components by independent reviewers, like IROC, can detect errors, but may not be timely. The goal of this session is to help junior clinical physicists identify potential errors as well as the approach of quality assurance to perform a root cause analysis to find and eliminate an error and to continually monitor for errors. A compilation of potential errors will be presented by examples of the thought process required to spot the error and determine the root cause. Examples may include unusual machine operation, erratic electrometer reading, consistent lower electron output, variation in photon output, body parts inadvertently left in beam, unusual treatment plan, poor normalization, hot spots etc. Awareness of the possibility and detection of error in any link of the treatment process chain will help improve the safe and accurate delivery of radiation to patients. Four experts will discuss how to identify errors in four areas of clinical treatment. D. Followill, NIH grant CA 180803.« less

Economic impact of medication error: a systematic review.

PubMed

Walsh, Elaine K; Hansen, Christina Raae; Sahm, Laura J; Kearney, Patricia M; Doherty, Edel; Bradley, Colin P

2017-05-01

Medication error is a significant source of morbidity and mortality among patients. Clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence are required for the implementation of quality of care interventions. Reduction of error-related cost is a key potential benefit of interventions addressing medication error. The aim of this review was to describe and quantify the economic burden associated with medication error. PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, CINAHL, EconLit, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Complete were searched. Studies published 2004-2016 assessing the economic impact of medication error were included. Cost values were expressed in Euro 2015. A narrative synthesis was performed. A total of 4572 articles were identified from database searching, and 16 were included in the review. One study met all applicable quality criteria. Fifteen studies expressed economic impact in monetary terms. Mean cost per error per study ranged from €2.58 to €111 727.08. Healthcare costs were used to measure economic impact in 15 of the included studies with one study measuring litigation costs. Four studies included costs incurred in primary care with the remaining 12 measuring hospital costs. Five studies looked at general medication error in a general population with 11 studies reporting the economic impact of an individual type of medication error or error within a specific patient population. Considerable variability existed between studies in terms of financial cost, patients, settings and errors included. Many were of poor quality. Assessment of economic impact was conducted predominantly in the hospital setting with little assessment of primary care impact. Limited parameters were used to establish economic impact. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Causal inference with measurement error in outcomes: Bias analysis and estimation methods.

PubMed

Shu, Di; Yi, Grace Y

2017-01-01

Inverse probability weighting estimation has been popularly used to consistently estimate the average treatment effect. Its validity, however, is challenged by the presence of error-prone variables. In this paper, we explore the inverse probability weighting estimation with mismeasured outcome variables. We study the impact of measurement error for both continuous and discrete outcome variables and reveal interesting consequences of the naive analysis which ignores measurement error. When a continuous outcome variable is mismeasured under an additive measurement error model, the naive analysis may still yield a consistent estimator; when the outcome is binary, we derive the asymptotic bias in a closed-form. Furthermore, we develop consistent estimation procedures for practical scenarios where either validation data or replicates are available. With validation data, we propose an efficient method for estimation of average treatment effect; the efficiency gain is substantial relative to usual methods of using validation data. To provide protection against model misspecification, we further propose a doubly robust estimator which is consistent even when either the treatment model or the outcome model is misspecified. Simulation studies are reported to assess the performance of the proposed methods. An application to a smoking cessation dataset is presented.

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope: Optical Jitter Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyde, T. Tupper; Ha, Kong Q.; Johnston, John D.; Howard, Joseph M.; Mosier, Gary E.

2004-01-01

This is a continuation of a series of papers on the integrated modeling activities for the James Webb Space Telescope(JWST). Starting with the linear optical model discussed in part one, and using the optical sensitivities developed in part two, we now assess the optical image motion and wavefront errors from the structural dynamics. This is often referred to as "jitter: analysis. The optical model is combined with the structural model and the control models to create a linear structural/optical/control model. The largest jitter is due to spacecraft reaction wheel assembly disturbances which are harmonic in nature and will excite spacecraft and telescope structural. The structural/optic response causes image quality degradation due to image motion (centroid error) as well as dynamic wavefront error. Jitter analysis results are used to predict imaging performance, improve the structural design, and evaluate the operational impact of the disturbance sources.

Traveltime inversion and error analysis for layered anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Fan; Zhou, Hua-wei

2011-02-01

While tilted transverse isotropy (TTI) is a good approximation of the velocity structure for many dipping and fractured strata, it is still challenging to estimate anisotropic depth models even when the tilted angle is known. With the assumption of weak anisotropy, we present a TTI traveltime inversion approach for models consisting of several thickness-varying layers where the anisotropic parameters are constant for each layer. For each model layer the inversion variables consist of the anisotropic parameters ɛ and δ, the tilted angle φ of its symmetry axis, layer velocity along the symmetry axis, and thickness variation of the layer. Using this method and synthetic data, we evaluate the effects of errors in some of the model parameters on the inverted values of the other parameters in crosswell and Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) acquisition geometry. The analyses show that the errors in the layer symmetry axes sensitively affect the inverted values of other parameters, especially δ. However, the impact of errors in δ on the inversion of other parameters is much less than the impact on δ from the errors in other parameters. Hence, a practical strategy is first to invert for the most error-tolerant parameter layer velocity, then progressively invert for ɛ in crosswell geometry or δ in VSP geometry.

A Case of Error Disclosure: A Communication Privacy Management Analysis

PubMed Central

Petronio, Sandra; Helft, Paul R.; Child, Jeffrey T.

2013-01-01

To better understand the process of disclosing medical errors to patients, this research offers a case analysis using Petronios’s theoretical frame of Communication Privacy Management (CPM). Given the resistance clinicians often feel about error disclosure, insights into the way choices are made by the clinicians in telling patients about the mistake has the potential to address reasons for resistance. Applying the evidenced-based CPM theory, developed over the last 35 years and dedicated to studying disclosure phenomenon, to disclosing medical mistakes potentially has the ability to reshape thinking about the error disclosure process. Using a composite case representing a surgical mistake, analysis based on CPM theory is offered to gain insights into conversational routines and disclosure management choices of revealing a medical error. The results of this analysis show that an underlying assumption of health information ownership by the patient and family can be at odds with the way the clinician tends to control disclosure about the error. In addition, the case analysis illustrates that there are embedded patterns of disclosure that emerge out of conversations the clinician has with the patient and the patient’s family members. These patterns unfold privacy management decisions on the part of the clinician that impact how the patient is told about the error and the way that patients interpret the meaning of the disclosure. These findings suggest the need for a better understanding of how patients manage their private health information in relationship to their expectations for the way they see the clinician caring for or controlling their health information about errors. Significance for public health Much of the mission central to public health sits squarely on the ability to communicate effectively. This case analysis offers an in-depth assessment of how error disclosure is complicated by misunderstandings, assuming ownership and control over information, unwittingly following conversational scripts that convey misleading messages, and the difficulty in regulating privacy boundaries in the stressful circumstances that occur with error disclosures. As a consequence, the potential contribution to public health is the ability to more clearly see the significance of the disclosure process that has implications for many public health issues. PMID:25170501

Impacts of motivational valence on the error-related negativity elicited by full and partial errors.

PubMed

Maruo, Yuya; Schacht, Annekathrin; Sommer, Werner; Masaki, Hiroaki

2016-02-01

Affect and motivation influence the error-related negativity (ERN) elicited by full errors; however, it is unknown whether they also influence ERNs to correct responses accompanied by covert incorrect response activation (partial errors). Here we compared a neutral condition with conditions, where correct responses were rewarded or where incorrect responses were punished with gains and losses of small amounts of money, respectively. Data analysis distinguished ERNs elicited by full and partial errors. In the reward and punishment conditions, ERN amplitudes to both full and partial errors were larger than in the neutral condition, confirming participants' sensitivity to the significance of errors. We also investigated the relationships between ERN amplitudes and the behavioral inhibition and activation systems (BIS/BAS). Regardless of reward/punishment condition, participants scoring higher on BAS showed smaller ERN amplitudes in full error trials. These findings provide further evidence that the ERN is related to motivational valence and that similar relationships hold for both full and partial errors. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of using an intravenous workflow management system (IVWMS) on cost and patient safety.

PubMed

Lin, Alex C; Deng, Yihong; Thaibah, Hilal; Hingl, John; Penm, Jonathan; Ivey, Marianne F; Thomas, Mark

2018-07-01

The aim of this study was to determine the financial costs associated with wasted and missing doses before and after the implementation of an intravenous workflow management system (IVWMS) and to quantify the number and the rate of detected intravenous (IV) preparation errors. A retrospective analysis of the sample hospital information system database was conducted using three months of data before and after the implementation of an IVWMS System (DoseEdge ® ) which uses barcode scanning and photographic technologies to track and verify each step of the preparation process. The financial impact associated with wasted and missing >IV doses was determined by combining drug acquisition, labor, accessory, and disposal costs. The intercepted error reports and pharmacist detected error reports were drawn from the IVWMS to quantify the number of errors by defined error categories. The total number of IV doses prepared before and after the implementation of the IVWMS system were 110,963 and 101,765 doses, respectively. The adoption of the IVWMS significantly reduced the amount of wasted and missing IV doses by 14,176 and 2268 doses, respectively (p < 0.001). The overall cost savings of using the system was $144,019 over 3 months. The total number of errors detected was 1160 (1.14%) after using the IVWMS. The implementation of the IVWMS facilitated workflow changes that led to a positive impact on cost and patient safety. The implementation of the IVWMS increased patient safety by enforcing standard operating procedures and bar code verifications. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Impact of time-of-flight PET on quantification errors in MR imaging-based attenuation correction.

PubMed

Mehranian, Abolfazl; Zaidi, Habib

2015-04-01

Time-of-flight (TOF) PET/MR imaging is an emerging imaging technology with great capabilities offered by TOF to improve image quality and lesion detectability. We assessed, for the first time, the impact of TOF image reconstruction on PET quantification errors induced by MR imaging-based attenuation correction (MRAC) using simulation and clinical PET/CT studies. Standard 4-class attenuation maps were derived by segmentation of CT images of 27 patients undergoing PET/CT examinations into background air, lung, soft-tissue, and fat tissue classes, followed by the assignment of predefined attenuation coefficients to each class. For each patient, 4 PET images were reconstructed: non-TOF and TOF both corrected for attenuation using reference CT-based attenuation correction and the resulting 4-class MRAC maps. The relative errors between non-TOF and TOF MRAC reconstructions were compared with their reference CT-based attenuation correction reconstructions. The bias was locally and globally evaluated using volumes of interest (VOIs) defined on lesions and normal tissues and CT-derived tissue classes containing all voxels in a given tissue, respectively. The impact of TOF on reducing the errors induced by metal-susceptibility and respiratory-phase mismatch artifacts was also evaluated using clinical and simulation studies. Our results show that TOF PET can remarkably reduce attenuation correction artifacts and quantification errors in the lungs and bone tissues. Using classwise analysis, it was found that the non-TOF MRAC method results in an error of -3.4% ± 11.5% in the lungs and -21.8% ± 2.9% in bones, whereas its TOF counterpart reduced the errors to -2.9% ± 7.1% and -15.3% ± 2.3%, respectively. The VOI-based analysis revealed that the non-TOF and TOF methods resulted in an average overestimation of 7.5% and 3.9% in or near lung lesions (n = 23) and underestimation of less than 5% for soft tissue and in or near bone lesions (n = 91). Simulation results showed that as TOF resolution improves, artifacts and quantification errors are substantially reduced. TOF PET substantially reduces artifacts and improves significantly the quantitative accuracy of standard MRAC methods. Therefore, MRAC should be less of a concern on future TOF PET/MR scanners with improved timing resolution. © 2015 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keitz, J. F.

1982-01-01

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

Local Setup Reproducibility of the Spinal Column When Using Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy for Craniospinal Irradiation With Patient in Supine Position

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stoiber, Eva Maria, E-mail: eva.stoiber@med.uni-heidelberg.de; Department of Medical Physics, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg; Giske, Kristina

Purpose: To evaluate local positioning errors of the lumbar spine during fractionated intensity-modulated radiotherapy of patients treated with craniospinal irradiation and to assess the impact of rotational error correction on these uncertainties for one patient setup correction strategy. Methods and Materials: 8 patients (6 adults, 2 children) treated with helical tomotherapy for craniospinal irradiation were retrospectively chosen for this analysis. Patients were immobilized with a deep-drawn Aquaplast head mask. Additionally to daily megavoltage control computed tomography scans of the skull, once-a-week positioning of the lumbar spine was assessed. Therefore, patient setup was corrected by a target point correction, derived frommore » a registration of the patient's skull. The residual positioning variations of the lumbar spine were evaluated applying a rigid-registration algorithm. The impact of different rotational error corrections was simulated. Results: After target point correction, residual local positioning errors of the lumbar spine varied considerably. Craniocaudal axis rotational error correction did not improve or deteriorate these translational errors, whereas simulation of a rotational error correction of the right-left and anterior-posterior axis increased these errors by a factor of 2 to 3. Conclusion: The patient fixation used allows for deformations between the patient's skull and spine. Therefore, for the setup correction strategy evaluated in this study, generous margins for the lumbar spinal target volume are needed to prevent a local geographic miss. With any applied correction strategy, it needs to be evaluated whether or not a rotational error correction is beneficial.« less

The impact of Doppler lidar wind observations on a single-level meteorological analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riishojgaard, L. P.; Atlas, R.; Emmitt, G. D.

2001-01-01

Through the use of observation operators, modern data assimilation systems have the capability to ingest observations of quantities that are not themselves model variables, but are mathematically related to those variables. An example of this are the so-called LOS (line of sight) winds that a Doppler wind Lidar can provide. The model - or data assimilation system - needs information about both components of the horizontal wind vectors, whereas the observations in this case only provide the projection of the wind vector onto a given direction. The analyzed value is then calculated essentially based on a comparison between the observation itself and the model-simulated value of the observed quantity. However, in order to assess the expected impact of such an observing system, it is important to examine the extent to which a meteorological analysis can be constrained by the LOS winds. The answer to this question depends on the fundamental character of the atmospheric flow fields that are analyzed, but more importantly it also depends on the real and assumed error covariance characteristics of these fields. A single-level wind analysis system designed to explore these issues has been built at the NASA Data Assimilation Office. In this system, simulated wind observations can be evaluated in terms of their impact on the analysis quality under various assumptions about their spatial distribution and error characteristics and about the error covariance of the background fields. The basic design of the system will be presented along with experimental results obtained with it. In particular, the value of simultaneously measuring LOS winds along two different directions for a given location will be discussed.

Ready-to-use pre-filled syringes of atropine for anaesthesia care in French hospitals - a budget impact analysis.

PubMed

Benhamou, Dan; Piriou, Vincent; De Vaumas, Cyrille; Albaladejo, Pierre; Malinovsky, Jean-Marc; Doz, Marianne; Lafuma, Antoine; Bouaziz, Hervé

2017-04-01

Patient safety is improved by the use of labelled, ready-to-use, pre-filled syringes (PFS) when compared to conventional methods of syringe preparation (CMP) of the same product from an ampoule. However, the PFS presentation costs more than the CMP presentation. To estimate the budget impact for French hospitals of switching from atropine in ampoules to atropine PFS for anaesthesia care. A model was constructed to simulate the financial consequences of the use of atropine PFS in operating theatres, taking into account wastage and medication errors. The model tested different scenarios and a sensitivity analysis was performed. In a reference scenario, the systematic use of atropine PFS rather than atropine CMP yielded a net one-year budget saving of €5,255,304. Medication errors outweighed other cost factors relating to the use of atropine CMP (€9,425,448). Avoidance of wastage in the case of atropine CMP (prepared and unused) was a major source of savings (€1,167,323). Significant savings were made by means of other scenarios examined. The sensitivity analysis suggests that the results obtained are robust and stable for a range of parameter estimates and assumptions. The financial model was based on data obtained from the literature and expert opinions. The budget impact analysis shows that even though atropine PFS is more expensive than atropine CMP, its use would lead to significant cost savings. Savings would mainly be due to fewer medication errors and their associated consequences and the absence of wastage when atropine syringes are prepared in advance. Copyright © 2016 Société française d'anesthésie et de réanimation (Sfar). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keitz, J. F.

1982-01-01

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

Incorporating Quality Scores in Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahn, Soyeon; Becker, Betsy Jane

2011-01-01

This paper examines the impact of quality-score weights in meta-analysis. A simulation examines the roles of study characteristics such as population effect size (ES) and its variance on the bias and mean square errors (MSEs) of the estimators for several patterns of relationship between quality and ES, and for specific patterns of systematic…

Sleep, mental health status, and medical errors among hospital nurses in Japan.

PubMed

Arimura, Mayumi; Imai, Makoto; Okawa, Masako; Fujimura, Toshimasa; Yamada, Naoto

2010-01-01

Medical error involving nurses is a critical issue since nurses' actions will have a direct and often significant effect on the prognosis of their patients. To investigate the significance of nurse health in Japan and its potential impact on patient services, a questionnaire-based survey amongst nurses working in hospitals was conducted, with the specific purpose of examining the relationship between shift work, mental health and self-reported medical errors. Multivariate analysis revealed significant associations between the shift work system, General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) scores and nurse errors: the odds ratios for shift system and GHQ were 2.1 and 1.1, respectively. It was confirmed that both sleep and mental health status among hospital nurses were relatively poor, and that shift work and poor mental health were significant factors contributing to medical errors.

Understanding diagnostic errors in medicine: a lesson from aviation

PubMed Central

Singh, H; Petersen, L A; Thomas, E J

2006-01-01

The impact of diagnostic errors on patient safety in medicine is increasingly being recognized. Despite the current progress in patient safety research, the understanding of such errors and how to prevent them is inadequate. Preliminary research suggests that diagnostic errors have both cognitive and systems origins. Situational awareness is a model that is primarily used in aviation human factors research that can encompass both the cognitive and the systems roots of such errors. This conceptual model offers a unique perspective in the study of diagnostic errors. The applicability of this model is illustrated by the analysis of a patient whose diagnosis of spinal cord compression was substantially delayed. We suggest how the application of this framework could lead to potential areas of intervention and outline some areas of future research. It is possible that the use of such a model in medicine could help reduce errors in diagnosis and lead to significant improvements in patient care. Further research is needed, including the measurement of situational awareness and correlation with health outcomes. PMID:16751463

The Impact of a Patient Safety Program on Medical Error Reporting

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-01

307 The Impact of a Patient Safety Program on Medical Error Reporting Donald R. Woolever Abstract Background: In response to the occurrence of...a sentinel event—a medical error with serious consequences—Eglin U.S. Air Force (USAF) Regional Hospital developed and implemented a patient safety...communication, teamwork, and reporting. Objective: To determine the impact of a patient safety program on patterns of medical error reporting. Methods: This

On the Need for Quantitative Bias Analysis in the Peer-Review Process.

PubMed

Fox, Matthew P; Lash, Timothy L

2017-05-15

Peer review is central to the process through which epidemiologists generate evidence to inform public health and medical interventions. Reviewers thereby act as critical gatekeepers to high-quality research. They are asked to carefully consider the validity of the proposed work or research findings by paying careful attention to the methodology and critiquing the importance of the insight gained. However, although many have noted problems with the peer-review system for both manuscripts and grant submissions, few solutions have been proposed to improve the process. Quantitative bias analysis encompasses all methods used to quantify the impact of systematic error on estimates of effect in epidemiologic research. Reviewers who insist that quantitative bias analysis be incorporated into the design, conduct, presentation, and interpretation of epidemiologic research could substantially strengthen the process. In the present commentary, we demonstrate how quantitative bias analysis can be used by investigators and authors, reviewers, funding agencies, and editors. By utilizing quantitative bias analysis in the peer-review process, editors can potentially avoid unnecessary rejections, identify key areas for improvement, and improve discussion sections by shifting from speculation on the impact of sources of error to quantification of the impact those sources of bias may have had. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Nino Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Shu-Chih; Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian

2010-01-01

This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.

Impact of an electronic medication administration record on medication administration efficiency and errors.

PubMed

McComas, Jeffery; Riingen, Michelle; Chae Kim, Son

2014-12-01

The study aims were to evaluate the impact of electronic medication administration record implementation on medication administration efficiency and occurrence of medication errors as well as to identify the predictors of medication administration efficiency in an acute care setting. A prospective, observational study utilizing time-and-motion technique was conducted before and after electronic medication administration record implementation in November 2011. A total of 156 cases of medication administration activities (78 pre- and 78 post-electronic medication administration record) involving 38 nurses were observed at the point of care. A separate retrospective review of the hospital Midas+ medication error database was also performed to collect the rates and origin of medication errors for 6 months before and after electronic medication administration record implementation. The mean medication administration time actually increased from 11.3 to 14.4 minutes post-electronic medication administration record (P = .039). In a multivariate analysis, electronic medication administration record was not a predictor of medication administration time, but the distractions/interruptions during medication administration process were significant predictors. The mean hospital-wide medication errors significantly decreased from 11.0 to 5.3 events per month post-electronic medication administration record (P = .034). Although no improvement in medication administration efficiency was observed, electronic medication administration record improved the quality of care with a significant decrease in medication errors.

Using Analysis Increments (AI) to Estimate and Correct Systematic Errors in the Global Forecast System (GFS) Online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhargava, K.; Kalnay, E.; Carton, J.; Yang, F.

2017-12-01

Systematic forecast errors, arising from model deficiencies, form a significant portion of the total forecast error in weather prediction models like the Global Forecast System (GFS). While much effort has been expended to improve models, substantial model error remains. The aim here is to (i) estimate the model deficiencies in the GFS that lead to systematic forecast errors, (ii) implement an online correction (i.e., within the model) scheme to correct GFS following the methodology of Danforth et al. [2007] and Danforth and Kalnay [2008, GRL]. Analysis Increments represent the corrections that new observations make on, in this case, the 6-hr forecast in the analysis cycle. Model bias corrections are estimated from the time average of the analysis increments divided by 6-hr, assuming that initial model errors grow linearly and first ignoring the impact of observation bias. During 2012-2016, seasonal means of the 6-hr model bias are generally robust despite changes in model resolution and data assimilation systems, and their broad continental scales explain their insensitivity to model resolution. The daily bias dominates the sub-monthly analysis increments and consists primarily of diurnal and semidiurnal components, also requiring a low dimensional correction. Analysis increments in 2015 and 2016 are reduced over oceans, which is attributed to improvements in the specification of the SSTs. These results encourage application of online correction, as suggested by Danforth and Kalnay, for mean, seasonal and diurnal and semidiurnal model biases in GFS to reduce both systematic and random errors. As the error growth in the short-term is still linear, estimated model bias corrections can be added as a forcing term in the model tendency equation to correct online. Preliminary experiments with GFS, correcting temperature and specific humidity online show reduction in model bias in 6-hr forecast. This approach can then be used to guide and optimize the design of sub-grid scale physical parameterizations, more accurate discretization of the model dynamics, boundary conditions, radiative transfer codes, and other potential model improvements which can then replace the empirical correction scheme. The analysis increments also provide guidance in testing new physical parameterizations.

Global distortion of GPS networks associated with satellite antenna model errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardellach, E.; Elósegui, P.; Davis, J. L.

2007-07-01

Recent studies of the GPS satellite phase center offsets (PCOs) suggest that these have been in error by ˜1 m. Previous studies had shown that PCO errors are absorbed mainly by parameters representing satellite clock and the radial components of site position. On the basis of the assumption that the radial errors are equal, PCO errors will therefore introduce an error in network scale. However, PCO errors also introduce distortions, or apparent deformations, within the network, primarily in the radial (vertical) component of site position that cannot be corrected via a Helmert transformation. Using numerical simulations to quantify the effects of PCO errors, we found that these PCO errors lead to a vertical network distortion of 6-12 mm per meter of PCO error. The network distortion depends on the minimum elevation angle used in the analysis of the GPS phase observables, becoming larger as the minimum elevation angle increases. The steady evolution of the GPS constellation as new satellites are launched, age, and are decommissioned, leads to the effects of PCO errors varying with time that introduce an apparent global-scale rate change. We demonstrate here that current estimates for PCO errors result in a geographically variable error in the vertical rate at the 1-2 mm yr-1 level, which will impact high-precision crustal deformation studies.

Global Distortion of GPS Networks Associated with Satellite Antenna Model Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardellach, E.; Elosequi, P.; Davis, J. L.

2007-01-01

Recent studies of the GPS satellite phase center offsets (PCOs) suggest that these have been in error by approx.1 m. Previous studies had shown that PCO errors are absorbed mainly by parameters representing satellite clock and the radial components of site position. On the basis of the assumption that the radial errors are equal, PCO errors will therefore introduce an error in network scale. However, PCO errors also introduce distortions, or apparent deformations, within the network, primarily in the radial (vertical) component of site position that cannot be corrected via a Helmert transformation. Using numerical simulations to quantify the effects of PC0 errors, we found that these PCO errors lead to a vertical network distortion of 6-12 mm per meter of PCO error. The network distortion depends on the minimum elevation angle used in the analysis of the GPS phase observables, becoming larger as the minimum elevation angle increases. The steady evolution of the GPS constellation as new satellites are launched, age, and are decommissioned, leads to the effects of PCO errors varying with time that introduce an apparent global-scale rate change. We demonstrate here that current estimates for PCO errors result in a geographically variable error in the vertical rate at the 1-2 mm/yr level, which will impact high-precision crustal deformation studies.

Frequency of data extraction errors and methods to increase data extraction quality: a methodological review.

PubMed

Mathes, Tim; Klaßen, Pauline; Pieper, Dawid

2017-11-28

Our objective was to assess the frequency of data extraction errors and its potential impact on results in systematic reviews. Furthermore, we evaluated the effect of different extraction methods, reviewer characteristics and reviewer training on error rates and results. We performed a systematic review of methodological literature in PubMed, Cochrane methodological registry, and by manual searches (12/2016). Studies were selected by two reviewers independently. Data were extracted in standardized tables by one reviewer and verified by a second. The analysis included six studies; four studies on extraction error frequency, one study comparing different reviewer extraction methods and two studies comparing different reviewer characteristics. We did not find a study on reviewer training. There was a high rate of extraction errors (up to 50%). Errors often had an influence on effect estimates. Different data extraction methods and reviewer characteristics had moderate effect on extraction error rates and effect estimates. The evidence base for established standards of data extraction seems weak despite the high prevalence of extraction errors. More comparative studies are needed to get deeper insights into the influence of different extraction methods.

Single Event Test Methodologies and System Error Rate Analysis for Triple Modular Redundant Field Programmable Gate Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Gregory; Edmonds, Larry D.; Swift, Gary; Carmichael, Carl; Tseng, Chen Wei; Heldt, Kevin; Anderson, Scott Arlo; Coe, Michael

2010-01-01

We present a test methodology for estimating system error rates of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) mitigated with Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR). The test methodology is founded in a mathematical model, which is also presented. Accelerator data from 90 nm Xilins Military/Aerospace grade FPGA are shown to fit the model. Fault injection (FI) results are discussed and related to the test data. Design implementation and the corresponding impact of multiple bit upset (MBU) are also discussed.

Impact of Measurement Error on Synchrophasor Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yilu; Gracia, Jose R.; Ewing, Paul D.

2015-07-01

Phasor measurement units (PMUs), a type of synchrophasor, are powerful diagnostic tools that can help avert catastrophic failures in the power grid. Because of this, PMU measurement errors are particularly worrisome. This report examines the internal and external factors contributing to PMU phase angle and frequency measurement errors and gives a reasonable explanation for them. It also analyzes the impact of those measurement errors on several synchrophasor applications: event location detection, oscillation detection, islanding detection, and dynamic line rating. The primary finding is that dynamic line rating is more likely to be influenced by measurement error. Other findings include themore » possibility of reporting nonoscillatory activity as an oscillation as the result of error, failing to detect oscillations submerged by error, and the unlikely impact of error on event location and islanding detection.« less

Physicians and pharmacists: collaboration to improve the quality of prescriptions in primary care in Mexico.

PubMed

Mino-León, Dolores; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia; Jasso, Luis; Douvoba, Svetlana Vladislavovna

2012-06-01

Inappropriate prescription is a relevant problem in primary health care settings in Mexico, with potentially harmful consequences for patients. To evaluate the effectiveness of incorporating a pharmacist into primary care health team to reduce prescription errors for patients with diabetes and/or hypertension. One Family Medicine Clinic from the Mexican Institute of Social Security in Mexico City. A "pharmacotherapy intervention" provided by pharmacists through a quasi experimental (before-after) design was carried out. Physicians who allowed access to their diabetes and/or hypertensive patients' medical records and prescriptions were included in the study. Prescription errors were classified as "filling", "clinical" or "both". Descriptive analysis, identification of potential drug-drug interactions (pD-DI), and comparison of the proportion of patients with prescriptions with errors detected "before" and "after" intervention were performed. Decrease in the proportion of patients who received prescriptions with errors after the intervention. Pharmacists detected at least one type of error in 79 out of 160 patients. Errors were "clinical", "both" and "filling" in 47, 21 and 11 of these patient's prescriptions respectively. Predominant errors were, in the subgroup of patient's prescriptions with "clinical" errors, pD-DI; in the subgroup of "both" errors, lack of information on dosing interval and pD-DI; and in the "filling" subgroup, lack of information on dosing interval. The pD-DI caused 50 % of the errors detected, from which 19 % were of major severity. The impact of the correction of errors post-intervention was observed in 19 % of patients who had erroneous prescriptions before the intervention of the pharmacist (49.3-30.3 %, p < 0.05). The impact of the intervention was relevant from a clinical point of view for the public health services in Mexico. The implementation of early warning systems of the most widely prescribed drugs is an alternative for reducing prescription errors and consequently the risks they may cause.

Improving patient safety using the sterile cockpit principle during medication administration: a collaborative, unit-based project.

PubMed

Fore, Amanda M; Sculli, Gary L; Albee, Doreen; Neily, Julia

2013-01-01

  To implement the sterile cockpit principle to decrease interruptions and distractions during high volume medication administration and reduce the number of medication errors.   While some studies have described the importance of reducing interruptions as a tactic to reduce medication errors, work is needed to assess the impact on patient outcomes.   Data regarding the type and frequency of distractions were collected during the first 11 weeks of implementation. Medication error rates were tracked 1 year before and after 1 year implementation.   Simple regression analysis showed a decrease in the mean number of distractions, (β = -0.193, P = 0.02) over time. The medication error rate decreased by 42.78% (P = 0.04) after implementation of the sterile cockpit principle.   The use of crew resource management techniques, including the sterile cockpit principle, applied to medication administration has a significant impact on patient safety.   Applying the sterile cockpit principle to inpatient medical units is a feasible approach to reduce the number of distractions during the administration of medication, thus, reducing the likelihood of medication error. 'Do Not Disturb' signs and vests are inexpensive, simple interventions that can be used as reminders to decrease distractions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Selection of noisy measurement locations for error reduction in static parameter identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanayei, Masoud; Onipede, Oladipo; Babu, Suresh R.

1992-09-01

An incomplete set of noisy static force and displacement measurements is used for parameter identification of structures at the element level. Measurement location and the level of accuracy in the measured data can drastically affect the accuracy of the identified parameters. A heuristic method is presented to select a limited number of degrees of freedom (DOF) to perform a successful parameter identification and to reduce the impact of measurement errors on the identified parameters. This pretest simulation uses an error sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of measurement errors on the parameter estimates. The selected DOF can be used for nondestructive testing and health monitoring of structures. Two numerical examples, one for a truss and one for a frame, are presented to demonstrate that using the measurements at the selected subset of DOF can limit the error in the parameter estimates.

Effects of upstream-biased third-order space correction terms on multidimensional Crowley advection schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlesinger, R. E.

1985-01-01

The impact of upstream-biased corrections for third-order spatial truncation error on the stability and phase error of the two-dimensional Crowley combined advective scheme with the cross-space term included is analyzed, putting primary emphasis on phase error reduction. The various versions of the Crowley scheme are formally defined, and their stability and phase error characteristics are intercompared using a linear Fourier component analysis patterned after Fromm (1968, 1969). The performances of the schemes under prototype simulation conditions are tested using time-dependent numerical experiments which advect an initially cone-shaped passive scalar distribution in each of three steady nondivergent flows. One such flow is solid rotation, while the other two are diagonal uniform flow and a strongly deformational vortex.

How Do Simulated Error Experiences Impact Attitudes Related to Error Prevention?

PubMed

Breitkreuz, Karen R; Dougal, Renae L; Wright, Melanie C

2016-10-01

The objective of this project was to determine whether simulated exposure to error situations changes attitudes in a way that may have a positive impact on error prevention behaviors. Using a stratified quasi-randomized experiment design, we compared risk perception attitudes of a control group of nursing students who received standard error education (reviewed medication error content and watched movies about error experiences) to an experimental group of students who reviewed medication error content and participated in simulated error experiences. Dependent measures included perceived memorability of the educational experience, perceived frequency of errors, and perceived caution with respect to preventing errors. Experienced nursing students perceived the simulated error experiences to be more memorable than movies. Less experienced students perceived both simulated error experiences and movies to be highly memorable. After the intervention, compared with movie participants, simulation participants believed errors occurred more frequently. Both types of education increased the participants' intentions to be more cautious and reported caution remained higher than baseline for medication errors 6 months after the intervention. This study provides limited evidence of an advantage of simulation over watching movies describing actual errors with respect to manipulating attitudes related to error prevention. Both interventions resulted in long-term impacts on perceived caution in medication administration. Simulated error experiences made participants more aware of how easily errors can occur, and the movie education made participants more aware of the devastating consequences of errors.

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vedam, S.; Docef, A.; Fix, M.

2005-06-15

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effectsmore » of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.« less

On the sensitivity of TG-119 and IROC credentialing to TPS commissioning errors.

PubMed

McVicker, Drew; Yin, Fang-Fang; Adamson, Justus D

2016-01-08

We investigate the sensitivity of IMRT commissioning using the TG-119 C-shape phantom and credentialing with the IROC head and neck phantom to treatment planning system commissioning errors. We introduced errors into the various aspects of the commissioning process for a 6X photon energy modeled using the analytical anisotropic algorithm within a commercial treatment planning system. Errors were implemented into the various components of the dose calculation algorithm including primary photons, secondary photons, electron contamination, and MLC parameters. For each error we evaluated the probability that it could be committed unknowingly during the dose algorithm commissioning stage, and the probability of it being identified during the verification stage. The clinical impact of each commissioning error was evaluated using representative IMRT plans including low and intermediate risk prostate, head and neck, mesothelioma, and scalp; the sensitivity of the TG-119 and IROC phantoms was evaluated by comparing dosimetric changes to the dose planes where film measurements occur and change in point doses where dosimeter measurements occur. No commissioning errors were found to have both a low probability of detection and high clinical severity. When errors do occur, the IROC credentialing and TG 119 commissioning criteria are generally effective at detecting them; however, for the IROC phantom, OAR point-dose measurements are the most sensitive despite being currently excluded from IROC analysis. Point-dose measurements with an absolute dose constraint were the most effective at detecting errors, while film analysis using a gamma comparison and the IROC film distance to agreement criteria were less effective at detecting the specific commissioning errors implemented here.

The impact of multiple endpoint dependency on Q and I(2) in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Christopher Glen; Becker, Betsy Jane

2014-09-01

A common assumption in meta-analysis is that effect sizes are independent. When correlated effect sizes are analyzed using traditional univariate techniques, this assumption is violated. This research assesses the impact of dependence arising from treatment-control studies with multiple endpoints on homogeneity measures Q and I(2) in scenarios using the unbiased standardized-mean-difference effect size. Univariate and multivariate meta-analysis methods are examined. Conditions included different overall outcome effects, study sample sizes, numbers of studies, between-outcomes correlations, dependency structures, and ways of computing the correlation. The univariate approach used typical fixed-effects analyses whereas the multivariate approach used generalized least-squares (GLS) estimates of a fixed-effects model, weighted by the inverse variance-covariance matrix. Increased dependence among effect sizes led to increased Type I error rates from univariate models. When effect sizes were strongly dependent, error rates were drastically higher than nominal levels regardless of study sample size and number of studies. In contrast, using GLS estimation to account for multiple-endpoint dependency maintained error rates within nominal levels. Conversely, mean I(2) values were not greatly affected by increased amounts of dependency. Last, we point out that the between-outcomes correlation should be estimated as a pooled within-groups correlation rather than using a full-sample estimator that does not consider treatment/control group membership. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impact of automated dispensing cabinets on medication selection and preparation error rates in an emergency department: a prospective and direct observational before-and-after study.

PubMed

Fanning, Laura; Jones, Nick; Manias, Elizabeth

2016-04-01

The implementation of automated dispensing cabinets (ADCs) in healthcare facilities appears to be increasing, in particular within Australian hospital emergency departments (EDs). While the investment in ADCs is on the increase, no studies have specifically investigated the impacts of ADCs on medication selection and preparation error rates in EDs. Our aim was to assess the impact of ADCs on medication selection and preparation error rates in an ED of a tertiary teaching hospital. Pre intervention and post intervention study involving direct observations of nurses completing medication selection and preparation activities before and after the implementation of ADCs in the original and new emergency departments within a 377-bed tertiary teaching hospital in Australia. Medication selection and preparation error rates were calculated and compared between these two periods. Secondary end points included the impact on medication error type and severity. A total of 2087 medication selection and preparations were observed among 808 patients pre and post intervention. Implementation of ADCs in the new ED resulted in a 64.7% (1.96% versus 0.69%, respectively, P = 0.017) reduction in medication selection and preparation errors. All medication error types were reduced in the post intervention study period. There was an insignificant impact on medication error severity as all errors detected were categorised as minor. The implementation of ADCs could reduce medication selection and preparation errors and improve medication safety in an ED setting. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measurement Model and Precision Analysis of Accelerometers for Maglev Vibration Isolation Platforms.

PubMed

Wu, Qianqian; Yue, Honghao; Liu, Rongqiang; Zhang, Xiaoyou; Ding, Liang; Liang, Tian; Deng, Zongquan

2015-08-14

High precision measurement of acceleration levels is required to allow active control for vibration isolation platforms. It is necessary to propose an accelerometer configuration measurement model that yields such a high measuring precision. In this paper, an accelerometer configuration to improve measurement accuracy is proposed. The corresponding calculation formulas of the angular acceleration were derived through theoretical analysis. A method is presented to minimize angular acceleration noise based on analysis of the root mean square noise of the angular acceleration. Moreover, the influence of installation position errors and accelerometer orientation errors on the calculation precision of the angular acceleration is studied. Comparisons of the output differences between the proposed configuration and the previous planar triangle configuration under the same installation errors are conducted by simulation. The simulation results show that installation errors have a relatively small impact on the calculation accuracy of the proposed configuration. To further verify the high calculation precision of the proposed configuration, experiments are carried out for both the proposed configuration and the planar triangle configuration. On the basis of the results of simulations and experiments, it can be concluded that the proposed configuration has higher angular acceleration calculation precision and can be applied to different platforms.

Measurement Model and Precision Analysis of Accelerometers for Maglev Vibration Isolation Platforms

PubMed Central

Wu, Qianqian; Yue, Honghao; Liu, Rongqiang; Zhang, Xiaoyou; Ding, Liang; Liang, Tian; Deng, Zongquan

2015-01-01

High precision measurement of acceleration levels is required to allow active control for vibration isolation platforms. It is necessary to propose an accelerometer configuration measurement model that yields such a high measuring precision. In this paper, an accelerometer configuration to improve measurement accuracy is proposed. The corresponding calculation formulas of the angular acceleration were derived through theoretical analysis. A method is presented to minimize angular acceleration noise based on analysis of the root mean square noise of the angular acceleration. Moreover, the influence of installation position errors and accelerometer orientation errors on the calculation precision of the angular acceleration is studied. Comparisons of the output differences between the proposed configuration and the previous planar triangle configuration under the same installation errors are conducted by simulation. The simulation results show that installation errors have a relatively small impact on the calculation accuracy of the proposed configuration. To further verify the high calculation precision of the proposed configuration, experiments are carried out for both the proposed configuration and the planar triangle configuration. On the basis of the results of simulations and experiments, it can be concluded that the proposed configuration has higher angular acceleration calculation precision and can be applied to different platforms. PMID:26287203

Automated drug dispensing system reduces medication errors in an intensive care setting.

PubMed

Chapuis, Claire; Roustit, Matthieu; Bal, Gaëlle; Schwebel, Carole; Pansu, Pascal; David-Tchouda, Sandra; Foroni, Luc; Calop, Jean; Timsit, Jean-François; Allenet, Benoît; Bosson, Jean-Luc; Bedouch, Pierrick

2010-12-01

We aimed to assess the impact of an automated dispensing system on the incidence of medication errors related to picking, preparation, and administration of drugs in a medical intensive care unit. We also evaluated the clinical significance of such errors and user satisfaction. Preintervention and postintervention study involving a control and an intervention medical intensive care unit. Two medical intensive care units in the same department of a 2,000-bed university hospital. Adult medical intensive care patients. After a 2-month observation period, we implemented an automated dispensing system in one of the units (study unit) chosen randomly, with the other unit being the control. The overall error rate was expressed as a percentage of total opportunities for error. The severity of errors was classified according to National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention categories by an expert committee. User satisfaction was assessed through self-administered questionnaires completed by nurses. A total of 1,476 medications for 115 patients were observed. After automated dispensing system implementation, we observed a reduced percentage of total opportunities for error in the study compared to the control unit (13.5% and 18.6%, respectively; p<.05); however, no significant difference was observed before automated dispensing system implementation (20.4% and 19.3%, respectively; not significant). Before-and-after comparisons in the study unit also showed a significantly reduced percentage of total opportunities for error (20.4% and 13.5%; p<.01). An analysis of detailed opportunities for error showed a significant impact of the automated dispensing system in reducing preparation errors (p<.05). Most errors caused no harm (National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention category C). The automated dispensing system did not reduce errors causing harm. Finally, the mean for working conditions improved from 1.0±0.8 to 2.5±0.8 on the four-point Likert scale. The implementation of an automated dispensing system reduced overall medication errors related to picking, preparation, and administration of drugs in the intensive care unit. Furthermore, most nurses favored the new drug dispensation organization.

Multi-factorial analysis of class prediction error: estimating optimal number of biomarkers for various classification rules.

PubMed

Khondoker, Mizanur R; Bachmann, Till T; Mewissen, Muriel; Dickinson, Paul; Dobrzelecki, Bartosz; Campbell, Colin J; Mount, Andrew R; Walton, Anthony J; Crain, Jason; Schulze, Holger; Giraud, Gerard; Ross, Alan J; Ciani, Ilenia; Ember, Stuart W J; Tlili, Chaker; Terry, Jonathan G; Grant, Eilidh; McDonnell, Nicola; Ghazal, Peter

2010-12-01

Machine learning and statistical model based classifiers have increasingly been used with more complex and high dimensional biological data obtained from high-throughput technologies. Understanding the impact of various factors associated with large and complex microarray datasets on the predictive performance of classifiers is computationally intensive, under investigated, yet vital in determining the optimal number of biomarkers for various classification purposes aimed towards improved detection, diagnosis, and therapeutic monitoring of diseases. We investigate the impact of microarray based data characteristics on the predictive performance for various classification rules using simulation studies. Our investigation using Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, Linear Discriminant Analysis and k-Nearest Neighbour shows that the predictive performance of classifiers is strongly influenced by training set size, biological and technical variability, replication, fold change and correlation between biomarkers. Optimal number of biomarkers for a classification problem should therefore be estimated taking account of the impact of all these factors. A database of average generalization errors is built for various combinations of these factors. The database of generalization errors can be used for estimating the optimal number of biomarkers for given levels of predictive accuracy as a function of these factors. Examples show that curves from actual biological data resemble that of simulated data with corresponding levels of data characteristics. An R package optBiomarker implementing the method is freely available for academic use from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (http://www.cran.r-project.org/web/packages/optBiomarker/).

Temporal uncertainty analysis of human errors based on interrelationships among multiple factors: a case of Minuteman III missile accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin; Zhao, Tingdi

2016-01-01

In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

A hierarchy of computationally derived surgical and patient influences on metal on metal press-fit acetabular cup failure.

PubMed

Clarke, S G; Phillips, A T M; Bull, A M J; Cobb, J P

2012-06-01

The impact of anatomical variation and surgical error on excessive wear and loosening of the acetabular component of large diameter metal-on-metal hip arthroplasties was measured using a multi-factorial analysis through 112 different simulations. Each surgical scenario was subject to eight different daily loading activities using finite element analysis. Excessive wear appears to be predominantly dependent on cup orientation, with inclination error having a higher influence than version error, according to the study findings. Acetabular cup loosening, as inferred from initial implant stability, appears to depend predominantly on factors concerning the area of cup-bone contact, specifically the level of cup seating achieved and the individual patient's anatomy. The extent of press fit obtained at time of surgery did not appear to influence either mechanism of failure in this study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of real-time data obtained from gravimetric preparation of antineoplastic agents shows medication errors with possible critical therapeutic impact: Results of a large-scale, multicentre, multinational, retrospective study.

PubMed

Terkola, R; Czejka, M; Bérubé, J

2017-08-01

Medication errors are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality especially with antineoplastic drugs, owing to their narrow therapeutic index. Gravimetric workflow software systems have the potential to reduce volumetric errors during intravenous antineoplastic drug preparation which may occur when verification is reliant on visual inspection. Our aim was to detect medication errors with possible critical therapeutic impact as determined by the rate of prevented medication errors in chemotherapy compounding after implementation of gravimetric measurement. A large-scale, retrospective analysis of data was carried out, related to medication errors identified during preparation of antineoplastic drugs in 10 pharmacy services ("centres") in five European countries following the introduction of an intravenous workflow software gravimetric system. Errors were defined as errors in dose volumes outside tolerance levels, identified during weighing stages of preparation of chemotherapy solutions which would not otherwise have been detected by conventional visual inspection. The gravimetric system detected that 7.89% of the 759 060 doses of antineoplastic drugs prepared at participating centres between July 2011 and October 2015 had error levels outside the accepted tolerance range set by individual centres, and prevented these doses from reaching patients. The proportion of antineoplastic preparations with deviations >10% ranged from 0.49% to 5.04% across sites, with a mean of 2.25%. The proportion of preparations with deviations >20% ranged from 0.21% to 1.27% across sites, with a mean of 0.71%. There was considerable variation in error levels for different antineoplastic agents. Introduction of a gravimetric preparation system for antineoplastic agents detected and prevented dosing errors which would not have been recognized with traditional methods and could have resulted in toxicity or suboptimal therapeutic outcomes for patients undergoing anticancer treatment. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensory feedback in a bump attractor model of path integration.

PubMed

Poll, Daniel B; Nguyen, Khanh; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

2016-04-01

Mammalian spatial navigation systems utilize several different sensory information channels. This information is converted into a neural code that represents the animal's current position in space by engaging place cell, grid cell, and head direction cell networks. In particular, sensory landmark (allothetic) cues can be utilized in concert with an animal's knowledge of its own velocity (idiothetic) cues to generate a more accurate representation of position than path integration provides on its own (Battaglia et al. The Journal of Neuroscience 24(19):4541-4550 (2004)). We develop a computational model that merges path integration with feedback from external sensory cues that provide a reliable representation of spatial position along an annular track. Starting with a continuous bump attractor model, we explore the impact of synaptic spatial asymmetry and heterogeneity, which disrupt the position code of the path integration process. We use asymptotic analysis to reduce the bump attractor model to a single scalar equation whose potential represents the impact of asymmetry and heterogeneity. Such imperfections cause errors to build up when the network performs path integration, but these errors can be corrected by an external control signal representing the effects of sensory cues. We demonstrate that there is an optimal strength and decay rate of the control signal when cues appear either periodically or randomly. A similar analysis is performed when errors in path integration arise from dynamic noise fluctuations. Again, there is an optimal strength and decay of discrete control that minimizes the path integration error.

Structural Damage Prediction and Analysis for Hypervelocity Impact. BUMPERII Suggestion and Problem Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

In the course of preparing the SD_SURF space debris analysis code, several problems and possibilities for improvement of the BUMPERII code were documented and sent to MSFC. These suggestions and problem reports are included here as a part of the contract final report. This includes reducing BUMPERII memory requirements, compiling problems with BUMPERII, FORTRAN-lint analysis of BUMPERII, and error in function PRV in BUMPERII.

The impact of estimation errors on evaluations of timber production opportunities.

Treesearch

Dennis L. Schweitzer

1970-01-01

Errors in estimating costs and return, the timing of harvests, and the cost of using funds can greatly affect the apparent desirability of investments in timber production. Partial derivatives are used to measure the impact of these errors on the predicted present net worth of potential investments in timber production. Graphs that illustrate the impact of each type...

Downscaling Aerosols and the Impact of Neglected Subgrid Processes on Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing for a Representative Global Climate Model Grid Spacing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gustafson, William I.; Qian, Yun; Fast, Jerome D.

2011-07-13

Recent improvements to many global climate models include detailed, prognostic aerosol calculations intended to better reproduce the observed climate. However, the trace gas and aerosol fields are treated at the grid-cell scale with no attempt to account for sub-grid impacts on the aerosol fields. This paper begins to quantify the error introduced by the neglected sub-grid variability for the shortwave aerosol radiative forcing for a representative climate model grid spacing of 75 km. An analysis of the value added in downscaling aerosol fields is also presented to give context to the WRF-Chem simulations used for the sub-grid analysis. We foundmore » that 1) the impact of neglected sub-grid variability on the aerosol radiative forcing is strongest in regions of complex topography and complicated flow patterns, and 2) scale-induced differences in emissions contribute strongly to the impact of neglected sub-grid processes on the aerosol radiative forcing. The two of these effects together, when simulated at 75 km vs. 3 km in WRF-Chem, result in an average daytime mean bias of over 30% error in top-of-atmosphere shortwave aerosol radiative forcing for a large percentage of central Mexico during the MILAGRO field campaign.« less

Performance Analysis of Amplify-and-Forward Relaying FSO/SC-QAM Systems over Weak Turbulence Channels and Pointing Error Impairments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trung, Ha Duyen

2017-12-01

In this paper, the end-to-end performance of free-space optical (FSO) communication system combining with Amplify-and-Forward (AF)-assisted or fixed-gain relaying technology using subcarrier quadrature amplitude modulation (SC-QAM) over weak atmospheric turbulence channels modeled by log-normal distribution with pointing error impairments is studied. More specifically, unlike previous studies on AF relaying FSO communication systems without pointing error effects; the pointing error effect is studied by taking into account the influence of beamwidth, aperture size and jitter variance. In addition, a combination of these models to analyze the combined effect of atmospheric turbulence and pointing error to AF relaying FSO/SC-QAM systems is used. Finally, an analytical expression is derived to evaluate the average symbol error rate (ASER) performance of such systems. The numerical results show that the impact of pointing error on the performance of AF relaying FSO/SC-QAM systems and how we use proper values of aperture size and beamwidth to improve the performance of such systems. Some analytical results are confirmed by Monte-Carlo simulations.

Model wall and recovery temperature effects on experimental heat transfer data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Throckmorton, D. A.; Stone, D. R.

1974-01-01

Basic analytical procedures are used to illustrate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the relative impact upon heat transfer data analysis of certain factors which may affect the accuracy of experimental heat transfer data. Inaccurate knowledge of adiabatic wall conditions results in a corresponding inaccuracy in the measured heat transfer coefficient. The magnitude of the resulting error is extreme for data obtained at wall temperatures approaching the adiabatic condition. High model wall temperatures and wall temperature gradients affect the level and distribution of heat transfer to an experimental model. The significance of each of these factors is examined and its impact upon heat transfer data analysis is assessed.

"Bed Side" Human Milk Analysis in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Fusch, Gerhard; Kwan, Celia; Kotrri, Gynter; Fusch, Christoph

2017-03-01

Human milk analyzers can measure macronutrient content in native breast milk to tailor adequate supplementation with fortifiers. This article reviews all studies using milk analyzers, including (i) evaluation of devices, (ii) the impact of different conditions on the macronutrient analysis of human milk, and (iii) clinical trials to improve growth. Results lack consistency, potentially due to systematic errors in the validation of the device, or pre-analytical sample preparation errors like homogenization. It is crucial to introduce good laboratory and clinical practice when using these devices; otherwise a non-validated clinical usage can severely affect growth outcomes of infants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of estimation algorithms for CDTI and CAS applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goka, T.

1985-01-01

Estimation algorithms for Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) and Collision Avoidance System (CAS) applications were analyzed and/or developed. The algorithms are based on actual or projected operational and performance characteristics of an Enhanced TCAS II traffic sensor developed by Bendix and the Federal Aviation Administration. Three algorithm areas are examined and discussed. These are horizontal x and y, range and altitude estimation algorithms. Raw estimation errors are quantified using Monte Carlo simulations developed for each application; the raw errors are then used to infer impacts on the CDTI and CAS applications. Applications of smoothing algorithms to CDTI problems are also discussed briefly. Technical conclusions are summarized based on the analysis of simulation results.

Preanalytical errors in medical laboratories: a review of the available methodologies of data collection and analysis.

PubMed

West, Jamie; Atherton, Jennifer; Costelloe, Seán J; Pourmahram, Ghazaleh; Stretton, Adam; Cornes, Michael

2017-01-01

Preanalytical errors have previously been shown to contribute a significant proportion of errors in laboratory processes and contribute to a number of patient safety risks. Accreditation against ISO 15189:2012 requires that laboratory Quality Management Systems consider the impact of preanalytical processes in areas such as the identification and control of non-conformances, continual improvement, internal audit and quality indicators. Previous studies have shown that there is a wide variation in the definition, repertoire and collection methods for preanalytical quality indicators. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry Working Group on Laboratory Errors and Patient Safety has defined a number of quality indicators for the preanalytical stage, and the adoption of harmonized definitions will support interlaboratory comparisons and continual improvement. There are a variety of data collection methods, including audit, manual recording processes, incident reporting mechanisms and laboratory information systems. Quality management processes such as benchmarking, statistical process control, Pareto analysis and failure mode and effect analysis can be used to review data and should be incorporated into clinical governance mechanisms. In this paper, The Association for Clinical Biochemistry and Laboratory Medicine PreAnalytical Specialist Interest Group review the various data collection methods available. Our recommendation is the use of the laboratory information management systems as a recording mechanism for preanalytical errors as this provides the easiest and most standardized mechanism of data capture.

Assimilation of NUCAPS Retrieved Profiles in GSI for Unique Forecasting Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily Beth; Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Blankenship, Clay

2015-01-01

Hyperspectral IR profiles can be assimilated in GSI as a separate observation other than radiosondes with only changes to tables in the fix directory. Assimilation of profiles does produce changes to analysis fields and evidenced by: Innovations larger than +/-2.0 K are present and represent where individual profiles impact the final temperature analysis.The updated temperature analysis is colder behind the cold front and warmer in the warm sector. The updated moisture analysis is modified more in the low levels and tends to be drier than the original model background Analysis of model output shows: Differences relative to 13-km RAP analyses are smaller when profiles are assimilated with NUCAPS errors. CAPE is under-forecasted when assimilating NUCAPS profiles, which could be problematic for severe weather forecasting Refining the assimilation technique to incorporate an error covariance matrix and creating a separate GSI module to assimilate satellite profiles may improve results.

Assessing the Impact of Analytical Error on Perceived Disease Severity.

PubMed

Kroll, Martin H; Garber, Carl C; Bi, Caixia; Suffin, Stephen C

2015-10-01

The perception of the severity of disease from laboratory results assumes that the results are free of analytical error; however, analytical error creates a spread of results into a band and thus a range of perceived disease severity. To assess the impact of analytical errors by calculating the change in perceived disease severity, represented by the hazard ratio, using non-high-density lipoprotein (nonHDL) cholesterol as an example. We transformed nonHDL values into ranges using the assumed total allowable errors for total cholesterol (9%) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (13%). Using a previously determined relationship between the hazard ratio and nonHDL, we calculated a range of hazard ratios for specified nonHDL concentrations affected by analytical error. Analytical error, within allowable limits, created a band of values of nonHDL, with a width spanning 30 to 70 mg/dL (0.78-1.81 mmol/L), depending on the cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. Hazard ratios ranged from 1.0 to 2.9, a 16% to 50% error. Increased bias widens this range and decreased bias narrows it. Error-transformed results produce a spread of values that straddle the various cutoffs for nonHDL. The range of the hazard ratio obscures the meaning of results, because the spread of ratios at different cutoffs overlap. The magnitude of the perceived hazard ratio error exceeds that for the allowable analytical error, and significantly impacts the perceived cardiovascular disease risk. Evaluating the error in the perceived severity (eg, hazard ratio) provides a new way to assess the impact of analytical error.

Impact of Forecast and Model Error Correlations In 4dvar Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zupanski, M.; Zupanski, D.; Vukicevic, T.; Greenwald, T.; Eis, K.; Vonder Haar, T.

A weak-constraint 4DVAR data assimilation system has been developed at Cooper- ative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University. It is based on the NCEP's ETA 4DVAR system, and it is fully parallel (MPI coding). The CIRA's 4DVAR system is aimed for satellite data assimilation research, with cur- rent focus on assimilation of cloudy radiances and microwave satellite measurements. Most important improvement over the previous 4DVAR system is a degree of gener- ality introduced into the new algorithm, namely for applications with different NWP models (e.g., RAMS, WRF, ETA, etc.), and for the choice of control variable. In cur- rent applications, the non-hydrostatic RAMS model and its adjoint are used, including all microphysical processess. The control variable includes potential temperature, ve- locity potential and stream function, vertical velocity, and seven mixing ratios with respect to all water phases. Since the statistics of the microphysical components of the control variable is not well known, a special attention will be paid to the impact of the forecast and model (prior) error correlations on the 4DVAR analysis. In particular, the sensitivity of the analysis with respect to decorrelation length will be examined. The prior error covariances are modelled using the compactly-supported, space-limited correlations developed at NASA DAO.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

PubMed

Dionisio, Kathie L; Chang, Howard H; Baxter, Lisa K

2016-11-25

Exposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health. ZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NO x , EC, PM 2.5 , SO 4 , O 3 ) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error. Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs. Substantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3-85% for population error, and 31-85% for total error. When CO, NO x or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copollutants based on the estimated type I error rate. The impact of exposure error must be considered when interpreting results of copollutant epidemiologic models, due to the possibility of attenuation of main pollutant RRs and the increased probability of false positives when measurement error is present.

TU-G-BRD-08: In-Vivo EPID Dosimetry: Quantifying the Detectability of Four Classes of Errors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ford, E; Phillips, M; Bojechko, C

Purpose: EPID dosimetry is an emerging method for treatment verification and QA. Given that the in-vivo EPID technique is in clinical use at some centers, we investigate the sensitivity and specificity for detecting different classes of errors. We assess the impact of these errors using dose volume histogram endpoints. Though data exist for EPID dosimetry performed pre-treatment, this is the first study quantifying its effectiveness when used during patient treatment (in-vivo). Methods: We analyzed 17 patients; EPID images of the exit dose were acquired and used to reconstruct the planar dose at isocenter. This dose was compared to the TPSmore » dose using a 3%/3mm gamma criteria. To simulate errors, modifications were made to treatment plans using four possible classes of error: 1) patient misalignment, 2) changes in patient body habitus, 3) machine output changes and 4) MLC misalignments. Each error was applied with varying magnitudes. To assess the detectability of the error, the area under a ROC curve (AUC) was analyzed. The AUC was compared to changes in D99 of the PTV introduced by the simulated error. Results: For systematic changes in the MLC leaves, changes in the machine output and patient habitus, the AUC varied from 0.78–0.97 scaling with the magnitude of the error. The optimal gamma threshold as determined by the ROC curve varied between 84–92%. There was little diagnostic power in detecting random MLC leaf errors and patient shifts (AUC 0.52–0.74). Some errors with weak detectability had large changes in D99. Conclusion: These data demonstrate the ability of EPID-based in-vivo dosimetry in detecting variations in patient habitus and errors related to machine parameters such as systematic MLC misalignments and machine output changes. There was no correlation found between the detectability of the error using the gamma pass rate, ROC analysis and the impact on the dose volume histogram. Funded by grant R18HS022244 from AHRQ.« less

Impact of ozone observations on the structure of a tropical cyclone using coupled atmosphere-chemistry data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, S.; Park, S. K.; Zupanski, M.

2015-04-01

Since the air quality forecast is related to both chemistry and meteorology, the coupled atmosphere-chemistry data assimilation (DA) system is essential to air quality forecasting. Ozone (O3) plays an important role in chemical reactions and is usually assimilated in chemical DA. In tropical cyclones (TCs), O3 usually shows a lower concentration inside the eyewall and an elevated concentration around the eye, impacting atmospheric as well as chemical variables. To identify the impact of O3 observations on TC structure, including atmospheric and chemical information, we employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with an ensemble-based DA algorithm - the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF). For a TC case that occurred over the East Asia, our results indicate that the ensemble forecast is reasonable, accompanied with larger background state uncertainty over the TC, and also over eastern China. Similarly, the assimilation of O3 observations impacts atmospheric and chemical variables near the TC and over eastern China. The strongest impact on air quality in the lower troposphere was over China, likely due to the pollution advection. In the vicinity of the TC, however, the strongest impact on chemical variables adjustment was at higher levels. The impact on atmospheric variables was similar in both over China and near the TC. The analysis results are validated using several measures that include the cost function, root-mean-squared error with respect to observations, and degrees of freedom for signal (DFS). All measures indicate a positive impact of DA on the analysis - the cost function and root mean square error have decreased by 16.9 and 8.87%, respectively. In particular, the DFS indicates a strong positive impact of observations in the TC area, with a weaker maximum over northeast China.

Ensemble data assimilation of total column ozone using a coupled meteorology-chemistry model and its impact on the structure of Typhoon Nabi (2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, S.; Park, S. K.; Zupanski, M.

2015-09-01

Ozone (O3) plays an important role in chemical reactions and is usually incorporated in chemical data assimilation (DA). In tropical cyclones (TCs), O3 usually shows a lower concentration inside the eyewall and an elevated concentration around the eye, impacting meteorological as well as chemical variables. To identify the impact of O3 observations on TC structure, including meteorological and chemical information, we developed a coupled meteorology-chemistry DA system by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and an ensemble-based DA algorithm - the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF). For a TC case that occurred over East Asia, Typhoon Nabi (2005), our results indicate that the ensemble forecast is reasonable, accompanied with larger background state uncertainty over the TC, and also over eastern China. Similarly, the assimilation of O3 observations impacts meteorological and chemical variables near the TC and over eastern China. The strongest impact on air quality in the lower troposphere was over China, likely due to the pollution advection. In the vicinity of the TC, however, the strongest impact on chemical variables adjustment was at higher levels. The impact on meteorological variables was similar in both over China and near the TC. The analysis results are verified using several measures that include the cost function, root mean square (RMS) error with respect to observations, and degrees of freedom for signal (DFS). All measures indicate a positive impact of DA on the analysis - the cost function and RMS error have decreased by 16.9 and 8.87 %, respectively. In particular, the DFS indicates a strong positive impact of observations in the TC area, with a weaker maximum over northeastern China.

Medical students' perceptions of a novel institutional incident reporting system : A thematic analysis.

PubMed

Gordon, Morris; Parakh, Dillan

2017-10-01

Errors in healthcare are a major patient safety issue, with incident reporting a key solution. The incident reporting system has been integrated within a new medical curriculum, encouraging medical students to take part in this key safety process. The aim of this study was to describe the system and assess how students perceived the reporting system with regards to its role in enhancing safety. Employing a thematic analysis, this study used interviews with medical students at the end of the first year. Thematic indices were developed according to the information emerging from the data. Through open, axial and then selective stages of coding, an understanding of how the system was perceived was established. Analysis of the interview specified five core themes: (1) Aims of the incident reporting system; (2) internalized cognition of the system; (3) the impact of the reporting system; (4) threshold for reporting; (5) feedback on the systems operation. Selective analysis revealed three overriding findings: lack of error awareness and error wisdom as underpinned by key theoretical constructs, student support of the principle of safety, and perceptions of a blame culture. Students did not interpret reporting as a manner to support institutional learning and safety, rather many perceived it as a tool for a blame culture. The impact reporting had on students was unexpected and may give insight into how other undergraduates and early graduates interpret such a system. Future studies should aim to produce interventions that can support a reporting culture.

Full-chip level MEEF analysis using model based lithography verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Juhwan; Wang, Lantian; Zhang, Daniel; Tang, Zongwu

2005-11-01

MEEF (Mask Error Enhancement Factor) has become a critical factor in CD uniformity control since optical lithography process moved to sub-resolution era. A lot of studies have been done by quantifying the impact of the mask CD (Critical Dimension) errors on the wafer CD errors1-2. However, the benefits from those studies were restricted only to small pattern areas of the full-chip data due to long simulation time. As fast turn around time can be achieved for the complicated verifications on very large data by linearly scalable distributed processing technology, model-based lithography verification becomes feasible for various types of applications such as post mask synthesis data sign off for mask tape out in production and lithography process development with full-chip data3,4,5. In this study, we introduced two useful methodologies for the full-chip level verification of mask error impact on wafer lithography patterning process. One methodology is to check MEEF distribution in addition to CD distribution through process window, which can be used for RET/OPC optimization at R&D stage. The other is to check mask error sensitivity on potential pinch and bridge hotspots through lithography process variation, where the outputs can be passed on to Mask CD metrology to add CD measurements on those hotspot locations. Two different OPC data were compared using the two methodologies in this study.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liang, X; Li, Z; Zheng, D

Purpose: In the context of evaluating dosimetric impacts of a variety of uncertainties involved in HDR Tandem-and-Ovoid treatment, to study the correlations between conventional point doses and 3D volumetric doses. Methods: For 5 cervical cancer patients treated with HDR T&O, 150 plans were retrospectively created to study dosimetric impacts of the following uncertainties: (1) inter-fractional applicator displacement between two treatment fractions within a single insertion by applying Fraction#1 plan to Fraction#2 CT; (2) positional dwell error simulated from −5mm to 5mm in 1mm steps; (3) simulated temporal dwell error of 0.05s, 0.1s, 0.5s, and 1s. The original plans were basedmore » on point dose prescription, from which the volume covered by the prescription dose was generated as the pseudo target volume to study the 3D target dose effect. OARs were contoured. The point and volumetric dose errors were calculated by taking the differences between original and simulated plans. The correlations between the point and volumetric dose errors were analyzed. Results: For the most clinically relevant positional dwell uncertainty of 1mm, temporal uncertainty of 0.05s, and inter-fractional applicator displacement within the same insertion, the mean target D90 and V100 deviation were within 1%. Among these uncertainties, the applicator displacement showed the largest potential target coverage impact (2.6% on D90) as well as the OAR dose impact (2.5% and 3.4% on bladder D2cc and rectum D2cc). The Spearman correlation analysis shows a correlation coefficient of 0.43 with a p-value of 0.11 between target D90 coverage and H point dose. Conclusion: With the most clinically relevant positional and temporal dwell uncertainties and patient interfractional applicator displacement within the same insertion, the dose error is within clinical acceptable range. The lack of correlation between H point and 3D volumetric dose errors is a motivator for the use of 3D treatment planning in cervical HDR brachytherapy.« less

An Empirically Derived Taxonomy of Factors Affecting Physicians' Willingness to Disclose Medical Errors

PubMed Central

Kaldjian, Lauris C; Jones, Elizabeth W; Rosenthal, Gary E; Tripp-Reimer, Toni; Hillis, Stephen L

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Physician disclosure of medical errors to institutions, patients, and colleagues is important for patient safety, patient care, and professional education. However, the variables that may facilitate or impede disclosure are diverse and lack conceptual organization. OBJECTIVE To develop an empirically derived, comprehensive taxonomy of factors that affects voluntary disclosure of errors by physicians. DESIGN A mixed-methods study using qualitative data collection (structured literature search and exploratory focus groups), quantitative data transformation (sorting and hierarchical cluster analysis), and validation procedures (confirmatory focus groups and expert review). RESULTS Full-text review of 316 articles identified 91 impeding or facilitating factors affecting physicians' willingness to disclose errors. Exploratory focus groups identified an additional 27 factors. Sorting and hierarchical cluster analysis organized factors into 8 domains. Confirmatory focus groups and expert review relocated 6 factors, removed 2 factors, and modified 4 domain names. The final taxonomy contained 4 domains of facilitating factors (responsibility to patient, responsibility to self, responsibility to profession, responsibility to community), and 4 domains of impeding factors (attitudinal barriers, uncertainties, helplessness, fears and anxieties). CONCLUSIONS A taxonomy of facilitating and impeding factors provides a conceptual framework for a complex field of variables that affects physicians' willingness to disclose errors to institutions, patients, and colleagues. This taxonomy can be used to guide the design of studies to measure the impact of different factors on disclosure, to assist in the design of error-reporting systems, and to inform educational interventions to promote the disclosure of errors to patients. PMID:16918739

Soft-Decision-Data Reshuffle to Mitigate Pulsed Radio Frequency Interference Impact on Low-Density-Parity-Check Code Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ni, Jianjun David

2011-01-01

This presentation briefly discusses a research effort on mitigation techniques of pulsed radio frequency interference (RFI) on a Low-Density-Parity-Check (LDPC) code. This problem is of considerable interest in the context of providing reliable communications to the space vehicle which might suffer severe degradation due to pulsed RFI sources such as large radars. The LDPC code is one of modern forward-error-correction (FEC) codes which have the decoding performance to approach the Shannon Limit. The LDPC code studied here is the AR4JA (2048, 1024) code recommended by the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) and it has been chosen for some spacecraft design. Even though this code is designed as a powerful FEC code in the additive white Gaussian noise channel, simulation data and test results show that the performance of this LDPC decoder is severely degraded when exposed to the pulsed RFI specified in the spacecraft s transponder specifications. An analysis work (through modeling and simulation) has been conducted to evaluate the impact of the pulsed RFI and a few implemental techniques have been investigated to mitigate the pulsed RFI impact by reshuffling the soft-decision-data available at the input of the LDPC decoder. The simulation results show that the LDPC decoding performance of codeword error rate (CWER) under pulsed RFI can be improved up to four orders of magnitude through a simple soft-decision-data reshuffle scheme. This study reveals that an error floor of LDPC decoding performance appears around CWER=1E-4 when the proposed technique is applied to mitigate the pulsed RFI impact. The mechanism causing this error floor remains unknown, further investigation is necessary.

Military Interoperable Digital Hospital Testbed (MIDHT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

and Analyze the resulting technological impact on medication errors, pharmacists ’ productivity, nurse satisfactions/workflow and patient...medication errors, pharmacists productivity, nurse satisfactions/workflow and patient satisfaction. 1.1.1 Pharmacy Robotics Implementation...1.2 Research and analyze the resulting technological impact on medication errors, pharmacist productivity, nurse satisfaction/workflow and patient

Determination of Barometric Altimeter Errors for the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Denise L.; Bunoz, Jean-Philippe; Gay, Robert

2012-01-01

The Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission is the unmanned flight test for the upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). During entry, the EFT-1 vehicle will trigger several Landing and Recovery System (LRS) events, such as parachute deployment, based on on-board altitude information. The primary altitude source is the filtered navigation solution updated with GPS measurement data. The vehicle also has three barometric altimeters that will be used to measure atmospheric pressure during entry. In the event that GPS data is not available during entry, the altitude derived from the barometric altimeter pressure will be used to trigger chute deployment for the drogues and main parachutes. Therefore it is important to understand the impact of error sources on the pressure measured by the barometric altimeters and on the altitude derived from that pressure. The error sources for the barometric altimeters are not independent, and many error sources result in bias in a specific direction. Therefore conventional error budget methods could not be applied. Instead, high fidelity Monte-Carlo simulation was performed and error bounds were determined based on the results of this analysis. Aerodynamic errors were the largest single contributor to the error budget for the barometric altimeters. The large errors drove a change to the altitude trigger setpoint for FBC jettison deploy.

Agreement and Movement: A Syntactic Analysis of Attraction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franck, Julie; Lassi, Glenda; Frauenfelder, Ulrich H.; Rizzi, Luigi

2006-01-01

This paper links experimental psycholinguistics and theoretical syntax in the study of subject--verb agreement. Three experiments of elicited spoken production making use of specific characteristics of Italian and French are presented. They manipulate and examine its impact on the occurrence of "attraction" errors (i.e. incorrect agreement with a…

The Use of Meta-Analytic Statistical Significance Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Polanin, Joshua R.; Pigott, Terri D.

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis multiplicity, the concept of conducting multiple tests of statistical significance within one review, is an underdeveloped literature. We address this issue by considering how Type I errors can impact meta-analytic results, suggest how statistical power may be affected through the use of multiplicity corrections, and propose how…

Quantifying the burden of opioid medication errors in adult oncology and palliative care settings: A systematic review.

PubMed

Heneka, Nicole; Shaw, Tim; Rowett, Debra; Phillips, Jane L

2016-06-01

Opioids are the primary pharmacological treatment for cancer pain and, in the palliative care setting, are routinely used to manage symptoms at the end of life. Opioids are one of the most frequently reported drug classes in medication errors causing patient harm. Despite their widespread use, little is known about the incidence and impact of opioid medication errors in oncology and palliative care settings. To determine the incidence, types and impact of reported opioid medication errors in adult oncology and palliative care patient settings. A systematic review. Five electronic databases and the grey literature were searched from 1980 to August 2014. Empirical studies published in English, reporting data on opioid medication error incidence, types or patient impact, within adult oncology and/or palliative care services, were included. Popay's narrative synthesis approach was used to analyse data. Five empirical studies were included in this review. Opioid error incidence rate was difficult to ascertain as each study focussed on a single narrow area of error. The predominant error type related to deviation from opioid prescribing guidelines, such as incorrect dosing intervals. None of the included studies reported the degree of patient harm resulting from opioid errors. This review has highlighted the paucity of the literature examining opioid error incidence, types and patient impact in adult oncology and palliative care settings. Defining, identifying and quantifying error reporting practices for these populations should be an essential component of future oncology and palliative care quality and safety initiatives. © The Author(s) 2015.

Publication bias was not a good reason to discourage trials with low power.

PubMed

Borm, George F; den Heijer, Martin; Zielhuis, Gerhard A

2009-01-01

The objective was to investigate whether it is justified to discourage trials with less than 80% power. Trials with low power are unlikely to produce conclusive results, but their findings can be used by pooling then in a meta-analysis. However, such an analysis may be biased, because trials with low power are likely to have a nonsignificant result and are less likely to be published than trials with a statistically significant outcome. We simulated several series of studies with varying degrees of publication bias and then calculated the "real" one-sided type I error and the bias of meta-analyses with a "nominal" error rate (significance level) of 2.5%. In single trials, in which heterogeneity was set at zero, low, and high, the error rates were 2.3%, 4.7%, and 16.5%, respectively. In multiple trials with 80%-90% power and a publication rate of 90% when the results were nonsignificant, the error rates could be as high as 5.1%. When the power was 50% and the publication rate of non-significant results was 60%, the error rates did not exceed 5.3%, whereas the bias was at most 15% of the difference used in the power calculation. The impact of publication bias does not warrant the exclusion of trials with 50% power.

Multi-Unit Considerations for Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

St. Germain, S.; Boring, R.; Banaseanu, G.

This paper uses the insights from the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) methodology to help identify human actions currently modeled in the single unit PSA that may need to be modified to account for additional challenges imposed by a multi-unit accident as well as identify possible new human actions that might be modeled to more accurately characterize multi-unit risk. In identifying these potential human action impacts, the use of the SPAR-H strategy to include both errors in diagnosis and errors in action is considered as well as identifying characteristics of a multi-unit accident scenario that may impact themore » selection of the performance shaping factors (PSFs) used in SPAR-H. The lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accident will be addressed to further help identify areas where improved modeling may be required. While these multi-unit impacts may require modifications to a Level 1 PSA model, it is expected to have much more importance for Level 2 modeling. There is little currently written specifically about multi-unit HRA issues. A review of related published research will be presented. While this paper cannot answer all issues related to multi-unit HRA, it will hopefully serve as a starting point to generate discussion and spark additional ideas towards the proper treatment of HRA in a multi-unit PSA.« less

Growth of Errors and Uncertainties in Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts of U.S. East Coast Cool Season Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Minghua

Cool-season extratropical cyclones near the U.S. East Coast often have significant impacts on the safety, health, environment and economy of this most densely populated region. Hence it is of vital importance to forecast these high-impact winter storm events as accurately as possible by numerical weather prediction (NWP), including in the medium-range. Ensemble forecasts are appealing to operational forecasters when forecasting such events because they can provide an envelope of likely solutions to serve user communities. However, it is generally accepted that ensemble outputs are not used efficiently in NWS operations mainly due to the lack of simple and quantitative tools to communicate forecast uncertainties and ensemble verification to assess model errors and biases. Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA), which employs a linear correlation and regression between a chosen forecast metric and the forecast state vector, can be used to analyze the forecast uncertainty development for both short- and medium-range forecasts. The application of ESA to a high-impact winter storm in December 2010 demonstrated that the sensitivity signals based on different forecast metrics are robust. In particular, the ESA based on the leading two EOF PCs can separate sensitive regions associated with cyclone amplitude and intensity uncertainties, respectively. The sensitivity signals were verified using the leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) method based on a multi-model ensemble from CMC, ECMWF, and NCEP. The climatology of ensemble sensitivities for the leading two EOF PCs based on 3-day and 6-day forecasts of historical cyclone cases was presented. It was found that the EOF1 pattern often represents the intensity variations while the EOF2 pattern represents the track variations along west-southwest and east-northeast direction. For PC1, the upper-level trough associated with the East Coast cyclone and its downstream ridge are important to the forecast uncertainty in cyclone strength. The initial differences in forecasting the ridge along the west coast of North America impact the EOF1 pattern most. For PC2, it was shown that the shift of the tri-polar structure is most significantly related to the cyclone track forecasts. The EOF/fuzzy clustering tool was applied to diagnose the scenarios in operational ensemble forecast of East Coast winter storms. It was shown that the clustering method could efficiently separate the forecast scenarios associated with East Coast storms based on the 90-member multi-model ensemble. A scenario-based ensemble verification method has been proposed and applied it to examine the capability of different EPSs in capturing the analysis scenarios for historical East Coast cyclone cases at lead times of 1-9 days. The results suggest that the NCEP model performs better in short-range forecasts in capturing the analysis scenario although it is under-dispersed. The ECMWF ensemble shows the best performance in the medium range. The CMC model is found to show the smallest percentage of members in the analysis group and a relatively high missing rate, suggesting that it is less reliable regarding capturing the analysis scenario when compared with the other two EPSs. A combination of NCEP and CMC models has been found to reduce the missing rate and improve the error-spread skill in medium- to extended-range forecasts. Based on the orthogonal features of the EOF patterns, the model errors for 1-6-day forecasts have been decomposed for the leading two EOF patterns. The results for error decomposition show that the NCEP model tends to better represent both EOF1 and EOF2 patterns by showing less intensity and displacement errors during 1-3 days. The ECMWF model is found to have the smallest errors in both EOF1 and EOF2 patterns during 4-6 days. We have also found that East Coast cyclones in the ECMWF forecast tend to be towards the southwest of the other two models in representing the EOF2 pattern, which is associated with the southwest-northeast shifting of the cyclone. This result suggests that ECMWF model may have a tendency to show a closer-to-shore solution in forecasting East Coast winter storms. The downstream impacts of Rossby wave packets (RWPs) on the predictability of winter storms are investigated to explore the source of ensemble uncertainties. The composited RWPA anomalies show that there are enhanced RWPs propagating across the Pacific in both large-error and large-spread cases over the verification regions. There are also indications that the errors might propagate with a speed comparable with the group velocity of RWPs. Based on the composite results as well as our observations of the operation daily RWPA, a conceptual model of errors/uncertainty development associated with RWPs has been proposed to serve as a practical tool to understand the evolution of forecast errors and uncertainties associated with the coherent RWPs originating from upstream as far as western Pacific. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Estimating Uncertainty in Long Term Total Ozone Records from Multiple Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frith, Stacey M.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Kramarova, Natalya; McPeters, Richard D.

2014-01-01

Total ozone measurements derived from the TOMS and SBUV backscattered solar UV instrument series cover the period from late 1978 to the present. As the SBUV series of instruments comes to an end, we look to the 10 years of data from the AURA Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and two years of data from the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) on board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite to continue the record. When combining these records to construct a single long-term data set for analysis we must estimate the uncertainty in the record resulting from potential biases and drifts in the individual measurement records. In this study we present a Monte Carlo analysis used to estimate uncertainties in the Merged Ozone Dataset (MOD), constructed from the Version 8.6 SBUV2 series of instruments. We extend this analysis to incorporate OMI and OMPS total ozone data into the record and investigate the impact of multiple overlapping measurements on the estimated error. We also present an updated column ozone trend analysis and compare the size of statistical error (error from variability not explained by our linear regression model) to that from instrument uncertainty.

Evaluation of drug administration errors in a teaching hospital

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Medication errors can occur at any of the three steps of the medication use process: prescribing, dispensing and administration. We aimed to determine the incidence, type and clinical importance of drug administration errors and to identify risk factors. Methods Prospective study based on disguised observation technique in four wards in a teaching hospital in Paris, France (800 beds). A pharmacist accompanied nurses and witnessed the preparation and administration of drugs to all patients during the three drug rounds on each of six days per ward. Main outcomes were number, type and clinical importance of errors and associated risk factors. Drug administration error rate was calculated with and without wrong time errors. Relationship between the occurrence of errors and potential risk factors were investigated using logistic regression models with random effects. Results Twenty-eight nurses caring for 108 patients were observed. Among 1501 opportunities for error, 415 administrations (430 errors) with one or more errors were detected (27.6%). There were 312 wrong time errors, ten simultaneously with another type of error, resulting in an error rate without wrong time error of 7.5% (113/1501). The most frequently administered drugs were the cardiovascular drugs (425/1501, 28.3%). The highest risks of error in a drug administration were for dermatological drugs. No potentially life-threatening errors were witnessed and 6% of errors were classified as having a serious or significant impact on patients (mainly omission). In multivariate analysis, the occurrence of errors was associated with drug administration route, drug classification (ATC) and the number of patient under the nurse's care. Conclusion Medication administration errors are frequent. The identification of its determinants helps to undertake designed interventions. PMID:22409837

Evaluation of drug administration errors in a teaching hospital.

PubMed

Berdot, Sarah; Sabatier, Brigitte; Gillaizeau, Florence; Caruba, Thibaut; Prognon, Patrice; Durieux, Pierre

2012-03-12

Medication errors can occur at any of the three steps of the medication use process: prescribing, dispensing and administration. We aimed to determine the incidence, type and clinical importance of drug administration errors and to identify risk factors. Prospective study based on disguised observation technique in four wards in a teaching hospital in Paris, France (800 beds). A pharmacist accompanied nurses and witnessed the preparation and administration of drugs to all patients during the three drug rounds on each of six days per ward. Main outcomes were number, type and clinical importance of errors and associated risk factors. Drug administration error rate was calculated with and without wrong time errors. Relationship between the occurrence of errors and potential risk factors were investigated using logistic regression models with random effects. Twenty-eight nurses caring for 108 patients were observed. Among 1501 opportunities for error, 415 administrations (430 errors) with one or more errors were detected (27.6%). There were 312 wrong time errors, ten simultaneously with another type of error, resulting in an error rate without wrong time error of 7.5% (113/1501). The most frequently administered drugs were the cardiovascular drugs (425/1501, 28.3%). The highest risks of error in a drug administration were for dermatological drugs. No potentially life-threatening errors were witnessed and 6% of errors were classified as having a serious or significant impact on patients (mainly omission). In multivariate analysis, the occurrence of errors was associated with drug administration route, drug classification (ATC) and the number of patient under the nurse's care. Medication administration errors are frequent. The identification of its determinants helps to undertake designed interventions.

Setting the Record Straight: Strong Positive Impacts Found from the National Evaluation of Upward Bound. Re-Analysis Documents Significant Positive Impacts Masked by Errors in Flawed Contractor Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cahalan, Margaret; Goodwin, David

2014-01-01

In January 2009, in the last week of the Bush Administration, the U.S. Department of Education (ED), upon orders from the departing political appointee staff, published the final report in a long running National Evaluation of Upward Bound (UB). The study was conducted by the contractor, Mathematica Policy Research. After more than a year in…

Investigation of Primary Mirror Segment's Residual Errors for the Thirty Meter Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seo, Byoung-Joon; Nissly, Carl; Angeli, George; MacMynowski, Doug; Sigrist, Norbert; Troy, Mitchell; Williams, Eric

2009-01-01

The primary mirror segment aberrations after shape corrections with warping harness have been identified as the single largest error term in the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) image quality error budget. In order to better understand the likely errors and how they will impact the telescope performance we have performed detailed simulations. We first generated unwarped primary mirror segment surface shapes that met TMT specifications. Then we used the predicted warping harness influence functions and a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor model to determine estimates for the 492 corrected segment surfaces that make up the TMT primary mirror. Surface and control parameters, as well as the number of subapertures were varied to explore the parameter space. The corrected segment shapes were then passed to an optical TMT model built using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) developed Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems (MACOS) ray-trace simulator. The generated exit pupil wavefront error maps provided RMS wavefront error and image-plane characteristics like the Normalized Point Source Sensitivity (PSSN). The results have been used to optimize the segment shape correction and wavefront sensor designs as well as provide input to the TMT systems engineering error budgets.

[The effectiveness of error reporting promoting strategy on nurse's attitude, patient safety culture, intention to report and reporting rate].

PubMed

Kim, Myoungsoo

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of strategies to promote reporting of errors on nurses' attitude to reporting errors, organizational culture related to patient safety, intention to report and reporting rate in hospital nurses. A nonequivalent control group non-synchronized design was used for this study. The program was developed and then administered to the experimental group for 12 weeks. Data were analyzed using descriptive analysis, X(2)-test, t-test, and ANCOVA with the SPSS 12.0 program. After the intervention, the experimental group showed significantly higher scores for nurses' attitude to reporting errors (experimental: 20.73 vs control: 20.52, F=5.483, p=.021) and reporting rate (experimental: 3.40 vs control: 1.33, F=1998.083, p<.001). There was no significant difference in some categories for organizational culture and intention to report. The study findings indicate that strategies that promote reporting of errors play an important role in producing positive attitudes to reporting errors and improving behavior of reporting. Further advanced strategies for reporting errors that can lead to improved patient safety should be developed and applied in a broad range of hospitals.

Prediction of transmission distortion for wireless video communication: analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Zhifeng; Wu, Dapeng

2012-03-01

Transmitting video over wireless is a challenging problem since video may be seriously distorted due to packet errors caused by wireless channels. The capability of predicting transmission distortion (i.e., video distortion caused by packet errors) can assist in designing video encoding and transmission schemes that achieve maximum video quality or minimum end-to-end video distortion. This paper is aimed at deriving formulas for predicting transmission distortion. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we identify the governing law that describes how the transmission distortion process evolves over time and analytically derive the transmission distortion formula as a closed-form function of video frame statistics, channel error statistics, and system parameters. Second, we identify, for the first time, two important properties of transmission distortion. The first property is that the clipping noise, which is produced by nonlinear clipping, causes decay of propagated error. The second property is that the correlation between motion-vector concealment error and propagated error is negative and has dominant impact on transmission distortion, compared with other correlations. Due to these two properties and elegant error/distortion decomposition, our formula provides not only more accurate prediction but also lower complexity than the existing methods.

Analysis and Compensation of Modulation Angular Rate Error Based on Missile-Borne Rotation Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiayu; Li, Jie; Zhang, Xi; Che, Xiaorui; Huang, Yugang; Feng, Kaiqiang

2018-05-04

The Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SSINS) provides a new solution to attitude measurement of a high-speed rotating missile. However, micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMS) inertial measurement unit (MIMU) outputs are corrupted by significant sensor errors. In order to improve the navigation precision, a rotation modulation technology method called Rotation Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (RSSINS) is introduced into SINS. In fact, the stability of the modulation angular rate is difficult to achieve in a high-speed rotation environment. The changing rotary angular rate has an impact on the inertial sensor error self-compensation. In this paper, the influence of modulation angular rate error, including acceleration-deceleration process, and instability of the angular rate on the navigation accuracy of RSSINS is deduced and the error characteristics of the reciprocating rotation scheme are analyzed. A new compensation method is proposed to remove or reduce sensor errors so as to make it possible to maintain high precision autonomous navigation performance by MIMU when there is no external aid. Experiments have been carried out to validate the performance of the method. In addition, the proposed method is applicable for modulation angular rate error compensation under various dynamic conditions.

Evaluation of Parenteral Nutrition Errors in an Era of Drug Shortages.

PubMed

Storey, Michael A; Weber, Robert J; Besco, Kelly; Beatty, Stuart; Aizawa, Kumiko; Mirtallo, Jay M

2016-04-01

Ingredient shortages have forced many organizations to change practices or use unfamiliar ingredients, which creates potential for error. Parenteral nutrition (PN) has been significantly affected, as every ingredient in PN has been impacted in recent years. Ingredient errors involving PN that were reported to the national anonymous MedMARx database between May 2009 and April 2011 were reviewed. Errors were categorized by ingredient, node, and severity. Categorization was validated by experts in medication safety and PN. A timeline of PN ingredient shortages was developed and compared with the PN errors to determine if events correlated with an ingredient shortage. This information was used to determine the prevalence and change in harmful PN errors during periods of shortage, elucidating whether a statistically significant difference exists in errors during shortage as compared with a control period (ie, no shortage). There were 1311 errors identified. Nineteen errors were associated with harm. Fat emulsions and electrolytes were the PN ingredients most frequently associated with error. Insulin was the ingredient most often associated with patient harm. On individual error review, PN shortages were described in 13 errors, most of which were associated with intravenous fat emulsions; none were associated with harm. There was no correlation of drug shortages with the frequency of PN errors. Despite the significant impact that shortages have had on the PN use system, no adverse impact on patient safety could be identified from these reported PN errors. © 2015 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, L.; Pawson, S.; Zhu, Z.; Nielsen, J. E.; Collatz, G. J.; Gregg, W. W.

2012-01-01

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. Fidelity and efficiency of time stepping schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri

2010-10-01

A major neglected weakness of many current hydrological models is the numerical method used to solve the governing model equations. This paper thoroughly evaluates several classes of time stepping schemes in terms of numerical reliability and computational efficiency in the context of conceptual hydrological modeling. Numerical experiments are carried out using 8 distinct time stepping algorithms and 6 different conceptual rainfall-runoff models, applied in a densely gauged experimental catchment, as well as in 12 basins with diverse physical and hydroclimatic characteristics. Results show that, over vast regions of the parameter space, the numerical errors of fixed-step explicit schemes commonly used in hydrology routinely dwarf the structural errors of the model conceptualization. This substantially degrades model predictions, but also, disturbingly, generates fortuitously adequate performance for parameter sets where numerical errors compensate for model structural errors. Simply running fixed-step explicit schemes with shorter time steps provides a poor balance between accuracy and efficiency: in some cases daily-step adaptive explicit schemes with moderate error tolerances achieved comparable or higher accuracy than 15 min fixed-step explicit approximations but were nearly 10 times more efficient. From the range of simple time stepping schemes investigated in this work, the fixed-step implicit Euler method and the adaptive explicit Heun method emerge as good practical choices for the majority of simulation scenarios. In combination with the companion paper, where impacts on model analysis, interpretation, and prediction are assessed, this two-part study vividly highlights the impact of numerical errors on critical performance aspects of conceptual hydrological models and provides practical guidelines for robust numerical implementation.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

EPA Science Inventory

BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of a...

The relationship between hand hygiene and health care-associated infection: it’s complicated

PubMed Central

McLaws, Mary-Louise

2015-01-01

The reasoning that improved hand hygiene compliance contributes to the prevention of health care-associated infections is widely accepted. It is also accepted that high hand hygiene alone cannot impact formidable risk factors, such as older age, immunosuppression, admission to the intensive care unit, longer length of stay, and indwelling devices. When hand hygiene interventions are concurrently undertaken with other routine or special preventive strategies, there is a potential for these concurrent strategies to confound the effect of the hand hygiene program. The result may be an overestimation of the hand hygiene intervention unless the design of the intervention or analysis controls the effect of the potential confounders. Other epidemiologic principles that may also impact the result of a hand hygiene program include failure to consider measurement error of the content of the hand hygiene program and the measurement error of compliance. Some epidemiological errors in hand hygiene programs aimed at reducing health care-associated infections are inherent and not easily controlled. Nevertheless, the inadvertent omission by authors to report these common epidemiological errors, including concurrent infection prevention strategies, suggests to readers that the effect of hand hygiene is greater than the sum of all infection prevention strategies. Worse still, this omission does not assist evidence-based practice. PMID:25678805

Online Error Reporting for Managing Quality Control Within Radiology.

PubMed

Golnari, Pedram; Forsberg, Daniel; Rosipko, Beverly; Sunshine, Jeffrey L

2016-06-01

Information technology systems within health care, such as picture archiving and communication system (PACS) in radiology, can have a positive impact on production but can also risk compromising quality. The widespread use of PACS has removed the previous feedback loop between radiologists and technologists. Instead of direct communication of quality discrepancies found for an examination, the radiologist submitted a paper-based quality-control report. A web-based issue-reporting tool can help restore some of the feedback loop and also provide possibilities for more detailed analysis of submitted errors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the hypothesis that data from use of an online error reporting software for quality control can focus our efforts within our department. For the 372,258 radiologic examinations conducted during the 6-month period study, 930 errors (390 exam protocol, 390 exam validation, and 150 exam technique) were submitted, corresponding to an error rate of 0.25 %. Within the category exam protocol, technologist documentation had the highest number of submitted errors in ultrasonography (77 errors [44 %]), while imaging protocol errors were the highest subtype error for computed tomography modality (35 errors [18 %]). Positioning and incorrect accession had the highest errors in the exam technique and exam validation error category, respectively, for nearly all of the modalities. An error rate less than 1 % could signify a system with a very high quality; however, a more likely explanation is that not all errors were detected or reported. Furthermore, staff reception of the error reporting system could also affect the reporting rate.

Proportion of medication error reporting and associated factors among nurses: a cross sectional study.

PubMed

Jember, Abebaw; Hailu, Mignote; Messele, Anteneh; Demeke, Tesfaye; Hassen, Mohammed

2018-01-01

A medication error (ME) is any preventable event that may cause or lead to inappropriate medication use or patient harm. Voluntary reporting has a principal role in appreciating the extent and impact of medication errors. Thus, exploration of the proportion of medication error reporting and associated factors among nurses is important to inform service providers and program implementers so as to improve the quality of the healthcare services. Institution based quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted among 397 nurses from March 6 to May 10, 2015. Stratified sampling followed by simple random sampling technique was used to select the study participants. The data were collected using structured self-administered questionnaire which was adopted from studies conducted in Australia and Jordan. A pilot study was carried out to validate the questionnaire before data collection for this study. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with the proportion of medication error reporting among nurses. An adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was computed to determine the level of significance. The proportion of medication error reporting among nurses was found to be 57.4%. Regression analysis showed that sex, marital status, having made a medication error and medication error experience were significantly associated with medication error reporting. The proportion of medication error reporting among nurses in this study was found to be higher than other studies.

Extraction of wind and temperature information from hybrid 4D-Var assimilation of stratospheric ozone using NAVGEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Douglas R.; Hoppel, Karl W.; Kuhl, David D.

2018-03-01

Extraction of wind and temperature information from stratospheric ozone assimilation is examined within the context of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) hybrid 4-D variational assimilation (4D-Var) data assimilation (DA) system. Ozone can improve the wind and temperature through two different DA mechanisms: (1) through the flow-of-the-day ensemble background error covariance that is blended together with the static background error covariance and (2) via the ozone continuity equation in the tangent linear model and adjoint used for minimizing the cost function. All experiments assimilate actual conventional data in order to maintain a similar realistic troposphere. In the stratosphere, the experiments assimilate simulated ozone and/or radiance observations in various combinations. The simulated observations are constructed for a case study based on a 16-day cycling truth experiment (TE), which is an analysis with no stratospheric observations. The impact of ozone on the analysis is evaluated by comparing the experiments to the TE for the last 6 days, allowing for a 10-day spin-up. Ozone assimilation benefits the wind and temperature when data are of sufficient quality and frequency. For example, assimilation of perfect (no applied error) global hourly ozone data constrains the stratospheric wind and temperature to within ˜ 2 m s-1 and ˜ 1 K. This demonstrates that there is dynamical information in the ozone distribution that can potentially be used to improve the stratosphere. This is particularly important for the tropics, where radiance observations have difficulty constraining wind due to breakdown of geostrophic balance. Global ozone assimilation provides the largest benefit when the hybrid blending coefficient is an intermediate value (0.5 was used in this study), rather than 0.0 (no ensemble background error covariance) or 1.0 (no static background error covariance), which is consistent with other hybrid DA studies. When perfect global ozone is assimilated in addition to radiance observations, wind and temperature error decreases of up to ˜ 3 m s-1 and ˜ 1 K occur in the tropical upper stratosphere. Assimilation of noisy global ozone (2 % errors applied) results in error reductions of ˜ 1 m s-1 and ˜ 0.5 K in the tropics and slightly increased temperature errors in the Northern Hemisphere polar region. Reduction of the ozone sampling frequency also reduces the benefit of ozone throughout the stratosphere, with noisy polar-orbiting data having only minor impacts on wind and temperature when assimilated with radiances. An examination of ensemble cross-correlations between ozone and other variables shows that a single ozone observation behaves like a potential vorticity (PV) charge, or a monopole of PV, with rotation about a vertical axis and vertically oriented temperature dipole. Further understanding of this relationship may help in designing observation systems that would optimize the impact of ozone on the dynamics.

Measurement error is often neglected in medical literature: a systematic review.

PubMed

Brakenhoff, Timo B; Mitroiu, Marian; Keogh, Ruth H; Moons, Karel G M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; van Smeden, Maarten

2018-06-01

In medical research, covariates (e.g., exposure and confounder variables) are often measured with error. While it is well accepted that this introduces bias and imprecision in exposure-outcome relations, it is unclear to what extent such issues are currently considered in research practice. The objective was to study common practices regarding covariate measurement error via a systematic review of general medicine and epidemiology literature. Original research published in 2016 in 12 high impact journals was full-text searched for phrases relating to measurement error. Reporting of measurement error and methods to investigate or correct for it were quantified and characterized. Two hundred and forty-seven (44%) of the 565 original research publications reported on the presence of measurement error. 83% of these 247 did so with respect to the exposure and/or confounder variables. Only 18 publications (7% of 247) used methods to investigate or correct for measurement error. Consequently, it is difficult for readers to judge the robustness of presented results to the existence of measurement error in the majority of publications in high impact journals. Our systematic review highlights the need for increased awareness about the possible impact of covariate measurement error. Additionally, guidance on the use of measurement error correction methods is necessary. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SU-E-J-15: A Patient-Centered Scheme to Mitigate Impacts of Treatment Setup Error

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, L; Southern Medical University, Guangzhou; Tian, Z

2014-06-01

Purpose: Current Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) is plan-centered. At each treatment fraction, we position the patient to match the setup in treatment plan. Inaccurate setup can compromise delivered dose distribution, and hence leading to suboptimal treatments. Moreover, current setup approach via couch shift under image guidance can correct translational errors, while rotational and deformation errors are hard to address. To overcome these problems, we propose in this abstract a patient-centered scheme to mitigate impacts of treatment setup errors. Methods: In the patient-centered scheme, we first position the patient on the couch approximately matching the planned-setup. Our Supercomputing Online Replanningmore » Environment (SCORE) is then employed to design an optimal treatment plan based on the daily patient geometry. It hence mitigates the impacts of treatment setup error and reduces the requirements on setup accuracy. We have conducted simulations studies in 10 head-and-neck (HN) patients to investigate the feasibility of this scheme. Rotational and deformation setup errors were simulated. Specifically, 1, 3, 5, 7 degrees of rotations were put on pitch, roll, and yaw directions; deformation errors were simulated by splitting neck movements into four basic types: rotation, lateral bending, flexion and extension. Setup variation ranges are based on observed numbers in previous studies. Dosimetric impacts of our scheme were evaluated on PTVs and OARs in comparison with original plan dose with original geometry and original plan recalculated dose with new setup geometries. Results: With conventional plan-centered approach, setup error could lead to significant PTV D99 decrease (−0.25∼+32.42%) and contralateral-parotid Dmean increase (−35.09∼+42.90%). The patientcentered approach is effective in mitigating such impacts to 0∼+0.20% and −0.03∼+5.01%, respectively. Computation time is <128 s. Conclusion: Patient-centered scheme is proposed to mitigate setup error impacts using replanning. Its superiority in terms of dosimetric impacts and feasibility has been shown through simulation studies on HN cases.« less

Opioid errors in inpatient palliative care services: a retrospective review.

PubMed

Heneka, Nicole; Shaw, Tim; Rowett, Debra; Lapkin, Samuel; Phillips, Jane L

2018-06-01

Opioids are a high-risk medicine frequently used to manage palliative patients' cancer-related pain and other symptoms. Despite the high volume of opioid use in inpatient palliative care services, and the potential for patient harm, few studies have focused on opioid errors in this population. To (i) identify the number of opioid errors reported by inpatient palliative care services, (ii) identify reported opioid error characteristics and (iii) determine the impact of opioid errors on palliative patient outcomes. A 24-month retrospective review of opioid errors reported in three inpatient palliative care services in one Australian state. Of the 55 opioid errors identified, 84% reached the patient. Most errors involved morphine (35%) or hydromorphone (29%). Opioid administration errors accounted for 76% of reported opioid errors, largely due to omitted dose (33%) or wrong dose (24%) errors. Patients were more likely to receive a lower dose of opioid than ordered as a direct result of an opioid error (57%), with errors adversely impacting pain and/or symptom management in 42% of patients. Half (53%) of the affected patients required additional treatment and/or care as a direct consequence of the opioid error. This retrospective review has provided valuable insights into the patterns and impact of opioid errors in inpatient palliative care services. Iatrogenic harm related to opioid underdosing errors contributed to palliative patients' unrelieved pain. Better understanding the factors that contribute to opioid errors and the role of safety culture in the palliative care service context warrants further investigation. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

On the impact of relatedness on SNP association analysis.

PubMed

Gross, Arnd; Tönjes, Anke; Scholz, Markus

2017-12-06

When testing for SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) associations in related individuals, observations are not independent. Simple linear regression assuming independent normally distributed residuals results in an increased type I error and the power of the test is also affected in a more complicate manner. Inflation of type I error is often successfully corrected by genomic control. However, this reduces the power of the test when relatedness is of concern. In the present paper, we derive explicit formulae to investigate how heritability and strength of relatedness contribute to variance inflation of the effect estimate of the linear model. Further, we study the consequences of variance inflation on hypothesis testing and compare the results with those of genomic control correction. We apply the developed theory to the publicly available HapMap trio data (N=129), the Sorbs (a self-contained population with N=977 characterised by a cryptic relatedness structure) and synthetic family studies with different sample sizes (ranging from N=129 to N=999) and different degrees of relatedness. We derive explicit and easily to apply approximation formulae to estimate the impact of relatedness on the variance of the effect estimate of the linear regression model. Variance inflation increases with increasing heritability. Relatedness structure also impacts the degree of variance inflation as shown for example family structures. Variance inflation is smallest for HapMap trios, followed by a synthetic family study corresponding to the trio data but with larger sample size than HapMap. Next strongest inflation is observed for the Sorbs, and finally, for a synthetic family study with a more extreme relatedness structure but with similar sample size as the Sorbs. Type I error increases rapidly with increasing inflation. However, for smaller significance levels, power increases with increasing inflation while the opposite holds for larger significance levels. When genomic control is applied, type I error is preserved while power decreases rapidly with increasing variance inflation. Stronger relatedness as well as higher heritability result in increased variance of the effect estimate of simple linear regression analysis. While type I error rates are generally inflated, the behaviour of power is more complex since power can be increased or reduced in dependence on relatedness and the heritability of the phenotype. Genomic control cannot be recommended to deal with inflation due to relatedness. Although it preserves type I error, the loss in power can be considerable. We provide a simple formula for estimating variance inflation given the relatedness structure and the heritability of a trait of interest. As a rule of thumb, variance inflation below 1.05 does not require correction and simple linear regression analysis is still appropriate.

The effect of dimple error on the horizontal launch angle and side spin of the golf ball during putting.

PubMed

Richardson, Ashley K; Mitchell, Andrew C S; Hughes, Gerwyn

2017-02-01

This study aimed to examine the effect of the impact point on the golf ball on the horizontal launch angle and side spin during putting with a mechanical putting arm and human participants. Putts of 3.2 m were completed with a mechanical putting arm (four putter-ball combinations, total of 160 trials) and human participants (two putter-ball combinations, total of 337 trials). The centre of the dimple pattern (centroid) was located and the following variables were measured: distance and angle of the impact point from the centroid and surface area of the impact zone. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify whether impact variables had significant associations with ball roll variables, horizontal launch angle and side spin. Significant associations were identified between impact variables and horizontal launch angle with the mechanical putting arm but this was not replicated with human participants. The variability caused by "dimple error" was minimal with the mechanical putting arm and not evident with human participants. Differences between the mechanical putting arm and human participants may be due to the way impulse is imparted on the ball. Therefore it is concluded that variability of impact point on the golf ball has a minimal effect on putting performance.

Economic measurement of medical errors using a hospital claims database.

PubMed

David, Guy; Gunnarsson, Candace L; Waters, Heidi C; Horblyuk, Ruslan; Kaplan, Harold S

2013-01-01

The primary objective of this study was to estimate the occurrence and costs of medical errors from the hospital perspective. Methods from a recent actuarial study of medical errors were used to identify medical injuries. A visit qualified as an injury visit if at least 1 of 97 injury groupings occurred at that visit, and the percentage of injuries caused by medical error was estimated. Visits with more than four injuries were removed from the population to avoid overestimation of cost. Population estimates were extrapolated from the Premier hospital database to all US acute care hospitals. There were an estimated 161,655 medical errors in 2008 and 170,201 medical errors in 2009. Extrapolated to the entire US population, there were more than 4 million unique injury visits containing more than 1 million unique medical errors each year. This analysis estimated that the total annual cost of measurable medical errors in the United States was $985 million in 2008 and just over $1 billion in 2009. The median cost per error to hospitals was $892 for 2008 and rose to $939 in 2009. Nearly one third of all medical injuries were due to error in each year. Medical errors directly impact patient outcomes and hospitals' profitability, especially since 2008 when Medicare stopped reimbursing hospitals for care related to certain preventable medical errors. Hospitals must rigorously analyze causes of medical errors and implement comprehensive preventative programs to reduce their occurrence as the financial burden of medical errors shifts to hospitals. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A procedure for the significance testing of unmodeled errors in GNSS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bofeng; Zhang, Zhetao; Shen, Yunzhong; Yang, Ling

2018-01-01

It is a crucial task to establish a precise mathematical model for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations in precise positioning. Due to the spatiotemporal complexity of, and limited knowledge on, systematic errors in GNSS observations, some residual systematic errors would inevitably remain even after corrected with empirical model and parameterization. These residual systematic errors are referred to as unmodeled errors. However, most of the existing studies mainly focus on handling the systematic errors that can be properly modeled and then simply ignore the unmodeled errors that may actually exist. To further improve the accuracy and reliability of GNSS applications, such unmodeled errors must be handled especially when they are significant. Therefore, a very first question is how to statistically validate the significance of unmodeled errors. In this research, we will propose a procedure to examine the significance of these unmodeled errors by the combined use of the hypothesis tests. With this testing procedure, three components of unmodeled errors, i.e., the nonstationary signal, stationary signal and white noise, are identified. The procedure is tested by using simulated data and real BeiDou datasets with varying error sources. The results show that the unmodeled errors can be discriminated by our procedure with approximately 90% confidence. The efficiency of the proposed procedure is further reassured by applying the time-domain Allan variance analysis and frequency-domain fast Fourier transform. In summary, the spatiotemporally correlated unmodeled errors are commonly existent in GNSS observations and mainly governed by the residual atmospheric biases and multipath. Their patterns may also be impacted by the receiver.

Correlation of Head Impacts to Change in Balance Error Scoring System Scores in Division I Men's Lacrosse Players.

PubMed

Miyashita, Theresa L; Diakogeorgiou, Eleni; Marrie, Kaitlyn

Investigation into the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts has yielded various results in the literature, with many supporting a link to neurological deficits. Little research has been conducted on men's lacrosse and associated balance deficits from head impacts. (1) Athletes will commit more errors on the postseason Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) test. (2) There will be a positive correlation to change in BESS scores and head impact exposure data. Prospective longitudinal study. Level 3. Thirty-four Division I men's lacrosse players (age, 19.59 ± 1.42 years) wore helmets instrumented with a sensor to collect head impact exposure data over the course of a competitive season. Players completed a BESS test at the start and end of the competitive season. The number of errors from pre- to postseason increased during the double-leg stance on foam ( P < 0.001), tandem stance on foam ( P = 0.009), total number of errors on a firm surface ( P = 0.042), and total number of errors on a foam surface ( P = 0.007). There were significant correlations only between the total errors on a foam surface and linear acceleration ( P = 0.038, r = 0.36), head injury criteria ( P = 0.024, r = 0.39), and Gadd Severity Index scores ( P = 0.031, r = 0.37). Changes in the total number of errors on a foam surface may be considered a sensitive measure to detect balance deficits associated with cumulative subconcussive head impacts sustained over the course of 1 lacrosse season, as measured by average linear acceleration, head injury criteria, and Gadd Severity Index scores. If there is microtrauma to the vestibular system due to repetitive subconcussive impacts, only an assessment that highly stresses the vestibular system may be able to detect these changes. Cumulative subconcussive impacts may result in neurocognitive dysfunction, including balance deficits, which are associated with an increased risk for injury. The development of a strategy to reduce total number of head impacts may curb the associated sequelae. Incorporation of a modified BESS test, firm surface only, may not be recommended as it may not detect changes due to repetitive impacts over the course of a competitive season.

Using comparative genome analysis to identify problems in annotated microbial genomes.

PubMed

Poptsova, Maria S; Gogarten, J Peter

2010-07-01

Genome annotation is a tedious task that is mostly done by automated methods; however, the accuracy of these approaches has been questioned since the beginning of the sequencing era. Genome annotation is a multilevel process, and errors can emerge at different stages: during sequencing, as a result of gene-calling procedures, and in the process of assigning gene functions. Missed or wrongly annotated genes differentially impact different types of analyses. Here we discuss and demonstrate how the methods of comparative genome analysis can refine annotations by locating missing orthologues. We also discuss possible reasons for errors and show that the second-generation annotation systems, which combine multiple gene-calling programs with similarity-based methods, perform much better than the first annotation tools. Since old errors may propagate to the newly sequenced genomes, we emphasize that the problem of continuously updating popular public databases is an urgent and unresolved one. Due to the progress in genome-sequencing technologies, automated annotation techniques will remain the main approach in the future. Researchers need to be aware of the existing errors in the annotation of even well-studied genomes, such as Escherichia coli, and consider additional quality control for their results.

Identifying the latent failures underpinning medication administration errors: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Lawton, Rebecca; Carruthers, Sam; Gardner, Peter; Wright, John; McEachan, Rosie R C

2012-08-01

The primary aim of this article was to identify the latent failures that are perceived to underpin medication errors. The study was conducted within three medical wards in a hospital in the United Kingdom. The study employed a cross-sectional qualitative design. Interviews were conducted with 12 nurses and eight managers. Interviews were transcribed and subject to thematic content analysis. A two-step inter-rater comparison tested the reliability of the themes. Ten latent failures were identified based on the analysis of the interviews. These were ward climate, local working environment, workload, human resources, team communication, routine procedures, bed management, written policies and procedures, supervision and leadership, and training. The discussion focuses on ward climate, the most prevalent theme, which is conceptualized here as interacting with failures in the nine other organizational structures and processes. This study is the first of its kind to identify the latent failures perceived to underpin medication errors in a systematic way. The findings can be used as a platform for researchers to test the impact of organization-level patient safety interventions and to design proactive error management tools and incident reporting systems in hospitals. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Photogrammetry experiments with a model eye.

PubMed Central

Rosenthal, A R; Falconer, D G; Pieper, I

1980-01-01

Digital photogrammetry was performed on stereophotographs of the optic nerve head of a modified Zeiss model eye in which optic cups of varying depths could be simulated. Experiments were undertaken to determine the impact of both photographic and ocular variables on the photogrammetric measurements of cup depth. The photogrammetric procedure tolerates refocusing, repositioning, and realignment as well as small variations in the geometric position of the camera. Progressive underestimation of cup depth was observed with increasing myopia, while progressive overestimation was noted with increasing hyperopia. High cylindrical errors at axis 90 degrees led to significant errors in cup depth estimates, while high cylindrical errors at axis 180 degrees did not materially affect the accuracy of the analysis. Finally, cup depths were seriously underestimated when the pupil diameter was less than 5.0 mm. Images PMID:7448139

Probabilistic wind/tornado/missile analyses for hazard and fragility evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Y.J.; Reich, M.

Detailed analysis procedures and examples are presented for the probabilistic evaluation of hazard and fragility against high wind, tornado, and tornado-generated missiles. In the tornado hazard analysis, existing risk models are modified to incorporate various uncertainties including modeling errors. A significant feature of this paper is the detailed description of the Monte-Carlo simulation analyses of tornado-generated missiles. A simulation procedure, which includes the wind field modeling, missile injection, solution of flight equations, and missile impact analysis, is described with application examples.

Analysis of naturalistic driving videos of fleet services drivers to estimate driver error and potentially distracting behaviors as risk factors for rear-end versus angle crashes.

PubMed

Harland, Karisa K; Carney, Cher; McGehee, Daniel

2016-07-03

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and odds of fleet driver errors and potentially distracting behaviors just prior to rear-end versus angle crashes. Analysis of naturalistic driving videos among fleet services drivers for errors and potentially distracting behaviors occurring in the 6 s before crash impact. Categorical variables were examined using the Pearson's chi-square test, and continuous variables, such as eyes-off-road time, were compared using the Student's t-test. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of a driver error or potentially distracting behavior being present in the seconds before rear-end versus angle crashes. Of the 229 crashes analyzed, 101 (44%) were rear-end and 128 (56%) were angle crashes. Driver age, gender, and presence of passengers did not differ significantly by crash type. Over 95% of rear-end crashes involved inadequate surveillance compared to only 52% of angle crashes (P < .0001). Almost 65% of rear-end crashes involved a potentially distracting driver behavior, whereas less than 40% of angle crashes involved these behaviors (P < .01). On average, drivers spent 4.4 s with their eyes off the road while operating or manipulating their cell phone. Drivers in rear-end crashes were at 3.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.73-5.44) times adjusted higher odds of being potentially distracted than those in angle crashes. Fleet driver driving errors and potentially distracting behaviors are frequent. This analysis provides data to inform safe driving interventions for fleet services drivers. Further research is needed in effective interventions to reduce the likelihood of drivers' distracting behaviors and errors that may potentially reducing crashes.

Towards the 1 mm/y stability of the radial orbit error at regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couhert, Alexandre; Cerri, Luca; Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michael; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Haines, Bruce J.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Bertiger, William I.; Desai, Shailen D.; Otten, Michiel

2015-01-01

An estimated orbit error budget for the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is constructed, using several measures of orbit error. The focus is on the long-term stability of the orbit time series for mean sea level applications on a regional scale. We discuss various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends; in particular this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-1 and Jason-2 (GPS, DORIS, SLR). The reference frame accuracy and its effect on Jason orbit is assessed. We also examine the impact of analysis method on the inference of Geographically Correlated Errors as well as the significance of estimated radial orbit error trends versus the time span of the analysis. Thus a long-term error budget of the 10-year Jason-1 and Envisat GDR-D orbit time series is provided for two time scales: interannual and decadal. As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the Precision Orbit Determination modeling, the overall accuracy of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is evaluated through comparison with external orbits based on different time-variable gravity models. This contribution is limited to an East-West “order-1” pattern at the 2 mm/y level (secular) and 4 mm level (seasonal), over the Jason-2 lifetime. The possibility of achieving sub-mm/y radial orbit stability over interannual and decadal periods at regional scales and the challenge of evaluating such an improvement using in situ independent data is discussed.

Towards the 1 mm/y Stability of the Radial Orbit Error at Regional Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Couhert, Alexandre; Cerri, Luca; Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Haines, Bruce J.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Bertiger, William I.; Desai, Shailen D.; Otten, Michiel

2015-01-01

An estimated orbit error budget for the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is constructed, using several measures of orbit error. The focus is on the long-term stability of the orbit time series for mean sea level applications on a regional scale. We discuss various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends; in particular this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-1 and Jason-2 (GPS, DORIS, SLR). The reference frame accuracy and its effect on Jason orbit is assessed. We also examine the impact of analysis method on the inference of Geographically Correlated Errors as well as the significance of estimated radial orbit error trends versus the time span of the analysis. Thus a long-term error budget of the 10-year Jason-1 and Envisat GDR-D orbit time series is provided for two time scales: interannual and decadal. As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the Precision Orbit Determination modeling, the overall accuracy of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is evaluated through comparison with external orbits based on different time-variable gravity models. This contribution is limited to an East-West "order-1" pattern at the 2 mm/y level (secular) and 4 mm level (seasonal), over the Jason-2 lifetime. The possibility of achieving sub-mm/y radial orbit stability over interannual and decadal periods at regional scales and the challenge of evaluating such an improvement using in situ independent data is discussed.

Towards the 1 mm/y Stability of the Radial Orbit Error at Regional Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Couhert, Alexandre; Cerri, Luca; Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Haines, Bruce J.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Bertiger, William I.; Desai, Shailen D.; Otten, Michiel

2014-01-01

An estimated orbit error budget for the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is constructed, using several measures of orbit error. The focus is on the long-term stability of the orbit time series for mean sea level applications on a regional scale. We discuss various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends; in particular this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-1 and Jason-2 (GPS, DORIS,SLR). The reference frame accuracy and its effect on Jason orbit is assessed. We also examine the impact of analysis method on the inference of Geographically Correlated Errors as well as the significance of estimated radial orbit error trends versus the time span of the analysis. Thus a long-term error budget of the 10-year Jason-1 and Envisat GDR-D orbit time series is provided for two time scales: interannual and decadal. As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the Precision Orbit Determination modeling, the overall accuracy of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is evaluated through comparison with external orbits based on different time-variable gravity models. This contribution is limited to an East-West "order-1" pattern at the 2 mm/y level (secular) and 4 mm level (seasonal), over the Jason-2 lifetime. The possibility of achieving sub-mm/y radial orbit stability over interannual and decadal periods at regional scales and the challenge of evaluating such an improvement using in situ independent data is discussed.

The grasping side of post-error slowing.

PubMed

Ceccarini, Francesco; Castiello, Umberto

2018-06-07

A common finding across many speeded reaction time (RT) tasks is that people tend to respond more slowly after making an error. This phenomenon, known as post-error slowing (PES), has been traditionally hypothesized to reflect a strategic increase in response caution, aimed at preventing the occurrence of new errors. However, this interpretation of PES has been challenged on multiple fronts. Firstly, recent investigations have suggested that errors may produce a decrement in performance accuracy and that PES might occur because error processing has a detrimental effect on subsequent information processing. Secondly, previous research has been criticized because of the limited ecological validity of speeded RT tasks. In the present study, we investigated error-reactivity in the context of goal-directed actions, in order to examine the extent to which PES effects impact on realistic and complex movements. Specifically, we investigated the effect of errors on the reach to grasp movement (Experiment 1). In addition to RTs, we performed a kinematical analysis in order to explore the underlying reorganization of the movements after an error. The results of the present study showed that error reactivity strategically influences the grasping component of the action, whereas the reaching component appears to be impermeable to PES. The resistance of the reaching component to PES was confirmed in a second 'only reaching' experiment (Experiment 2). These finding supports the hypothesis that error reactivity is a flexible process whose effects on behavior also depend on the motor components involved in the action. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Organizational safety culture and medical error reporting by Israeli nurses.

PubMed

Kagan, Ilya; Barnoy, Sivia

2013-09-01

To investigate the association between patient safety culture (PSC) and the incidence and reporting rate of medical errors by Israeli nurses. Self-administered structured questionnaires were distributed to a convenience sample of 247 registered nurses enrolled in training programs at Tel Aviv University (response rate = 91%). The questionnaire's three sections examined the incidence of medication mistakes in clinical practice, the reporting rate for these errors, and the participants' views and perceptions of the safety culture in their workplace at three levels (organizational, departmental, and individual performance). Pearson correlation coefficients, t tests, and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze the data. Most nurses encountered medical errors from a daily to a weekly basis. Six percent of the sample never reported their own errors, while half reported their own errors "rarely or sometimes." The level of PSC was positively and significantly correlated with the error reporting rate. PSC, place of birth, error incidence, and not having an academic nursing degree were significant predictors of error reporting, together explaining 28% of variance. This study confirms the influence of an organizational safety climate on readiness to report errors. Senior healthcare executives and managers can make a major impact on safety culture development by creating and promoting a vision and strategy for quality and safety and fostering their employees' motivation to implement improvement programs at the departmental and individual level. A positive, carefully designed organizational safety culture can encourage error reporting by staff and so improve patient safety. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Impact of Targeted Ocean Observations for Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliwell, G. R.; Srinivasan, A.; Kourafalou, V. H.; Yang, H.; Le Henaff, M.; Atlas, R. M.

2012-12-01

The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts produced by coupled forecast models is influenced by errors and biases in SST forecasts produced by the ocean model component and the resulting impact on the enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere that powers the storm. Errors and biases in fields used to initialize the ocean model seriously degrade SST forecast accuracy. One strategy for improving ocean model initialization is to design a targeted observing program using airplanes and in-situ devices such as floats and drifters so that assimilation of the additional data substantially reduces errors in the ocean analysis system that provides the initial fields. Given the complexity and expense of obtaining these additional observations, observing system design methods such as OSSEs are attractive for designing efficient observing strategies. A new fraternal-twin ocean OSSE system based on the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to assess the impact of targeted ocean profiles observed by hurricane research aircraft, and also by in-situ float and drifter deployments, on reducing errors in initial ocean fields. A 0.04-degree HYCOM simulation of the Gulf of Mexico is evaluated as the nature run by determining that important ocean circulation features such as the Loop Current and synoptic cyclones and anticyclones are realistically simulated. The data-assimilation system is run on a 0.08-degree HYCOM mesh with substantially different model configuration than the nature run, and it uses a new ENsemble Kalman Filter (ENKF) algorithm optimized for the ocean model's hybrid vertical coordinates. The OSSE system is evaluated and calibrated by first running Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to evaluate existing observing systems, specifically quantifying the impact of assimilating more than one satellite altimeter, and also the impact of assimilating targeted ocean profiles taken by the NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft in the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. OSSE evaluation and calibration is then performed by repeating these two OSEs with synthetic observations and comparing the resulting observing system impact to determine if it differs from the OSE results. OSSEs are first run to evaluate different airborne sampling strategies with respect to temporal frequency of flights and the horizontal separation of upper-ocean profiles during each flight. They are then run to assess the impact of releasing multiple floats and gliders. Evaluation strategy focuses on error reduction in fields important for hurricane forecasting such as the structure of ocean currents and eddies, upper ocean heat content distribution, and upper-ocean stratification.

Nurses' Perceived Skills and Attitudes About Updated Safety Concepts: Impact on Medication Administration Errors and Practices.

PubMed

Armstrong, Gail E; Dietrich, Mary; Norman, Linda; Barnsteiner, Jane; Mion, Lorraine

Approximately a quarter of medication errors in the hospital occur at the administration phase, which is solely under the purview of the bedside nurse. The purpose of this study was to assess bedside nurses' perceived skills and attitudes about updated safety concepts and examine their impact on medication administration errors and adherence to safe medication administration practices. Findings support the premise that medication administration errors result from an interplay among system-, unit-, and nurse-level factors.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of DART® Buoy Networks Based on Forecast Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Percival, Donald B.; Denbo, Donald W.; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y.; Mofjeld, Harold O.; Spillane, Michael C.; Titov, Vasily V.

2018-04-01

A performance measure for a DART® tsunami buoy network has been developed. DART® buoys are used to detect tsunamis, but the full potential of the data they collect is realized through accurate forecasts of inundations caused by the tsunamis. The performance measure assesses how well the network achieves its full potential through a statistical analysis of simulated forecasts of wave amplitudes outside an impact site and a consideration of how much the forecasts are degraded in accuracy when one or more buoys are inoperative. The analysis uses simulated tsunami amplitude time series collected at each buoy from selected source segments in the Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis database and involves a set for 1000 forecasts for each buoy/segment pair at sites just offshore of selected impact communities. Random error-producing scatter in the time series is induced by uncertainties in the source location, addition of real oceanic noise, and imperfect tidal removal. Comparison with an error-free standard leads to root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) for DART® buoys located near a subduction zone. The RMSEs indicate which buoy provides the best forecast (lowest RMSE) for sections of the zone, under a warning-time constraint for the forecasts of 3 h. The analysis also shows how the forecasts are degraded (larger minimum RMSE among the remaining buoys) when one or more buoys become inoperative. The RMSEs provide a way to assess array augmentation or redesign such as moving buoys to more optimal locations. Examples are shown for buoys off the Aleutian Islands and off the West Coast of South America for impact sites at Hilo HI and along the US West Coast (Crescent City CA and Port San Luis CA, USA). A simple measure (coded green, yellow or red) of the current status of the network's ability to deliver accurate forecasts is proposed to flag the urgency of buoy repair.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of DART® Buoy Networks Based on Forecast Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Percival, Donald B.; Denbo, Donald W.; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y.; Mofjeld, Harold O.; Spillane, Michael C.; Titov, Vasily V.

2018-03-01

A performance measure for a DART® tsunami buoy network has been developed. DART® buoys are used to detect tsunamis, but the full potential of the data they collect is realized through accurate forecasts of inundations caused by the tsunamis. The performance measure assesses how well the network achieves its full potential through a statistical analysis of simulated forecasts of wave amplitudes outside an impact site and a consideration of how much the forecasts are degraded in accuracy when one or more buoys are inoperative. The analysis uses simulated tsunami amplitude time series collected at each buoy from selected source segments in the Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis database and involves a set for 1000 forecasts for each buoy/segment pair at sites just offshore of selected impact communities. Random error-producing scatter in the time series is induced by uncertainties in the source location, addition of real oceanic noise, and imperfect tidal removal. Comparison with an error-free standard leads to root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) for DART® buoys located near a subduction zone. The RMSEs indicate which buoy provides the best forecast (lowest RMSE) for sections of the zone, under a warning-time constraint for the forecasts of 3 h. The analysis also shows how the forecasts are degraded (larger minimum RMSE among the remaining buoys) when one or more buoys become inoperative. The RMSEs provide a way to assess array augmentation or redesign such as moving buoys to more optimal locations. Examples are shown for buoys off the Aleutian Islands and off the West Coast of South America for impact sites at Hilo HI and along the US West Coast (Crescent City CA and Port San Luis CA, USA). A simple measure (coded green, yellow or red) of the current status of the network's ability to deliver accurate forecasts is proposed to flag the urgency of buoy repair.

Impact of Orbit Position Errors on Future Satellite Gravity Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Encarnacao, J.; Ditmar, P.; Klees, R.

2015-12-01

We present the results of a study of the impact of orbit positioning noise (OPN) caused by incomplete knowledge of the Earth's gravity field on gravity models estimated from satellite gravity data. The OPN is simulated as the difference between two sets of orbits integrated on the basis of different static gravity field models. The OPN is propagated into ll-SST data, here computed as averaged inter-satellite accelerations projected onto the Line of Sight (LoS) vector between the two satellites. We consider the cartwheel formation (CF), pendulum formation (PF), and trailing formation (TF) as they produce a different dominant orientation of the LoS vector. Given the polar orbits of the formations, the LoS vector is mainly aligned with the North-South direction in the TF, with the East-West direction in the PF (i.e. no along-track offset), and contains a radial component in the CF. An analytical analysis predicts that the CF suffers from a very high sensitivity to the OPN. This is a fundamental characteristic of this formation, which results from the amplification of this noise by diagonal components of the gravity gradient tensor (defined in the local frame) during the propagation into satellite gravity data. In contrast, the OPN in the data from PF and TF is only scaled by off-diagonal gravity gradient components, which are much smaller than the diagonal tensor components. A numerical analysis shows that the effect of the OPN is similar in the data collected by the TF and the PF. The amplification of the OPN errors for the CF leads to errors in the gravity model that are three orders of magnitude larger than those in case of the PF. This means that any implementation of the CF will most likely produce data with relatively low quality since this error dominates the error budget, especially at low frequencies. This is particularly critical for future gravimetric missions that will be equipped with highly accurate ranging sensors.

Noise removing in encrypted color images by statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, N.; Puech, W.

2012-03-01

Cryptographic techniques are used to secure confidential data from unauthorized access but these techniques are very sensitive to noise. A single bit change in encrypted data can have catastrophic impact over the decrypted data. This paper addresses the problem of removing bit error in visual data which are encrypted using AES algorithm in the CBC mode. In order to remove the noise, a method is proposed which is based on the statistical analysis of each block during the decryption. The proposed method exploits local statistics of the visual data and confusion/diffusion properties of the encryption algorithm to remove the errors. Experimental results show that the proposed method can be used at the receiving end for the possible solution for noise removing in visual data in encrypted domain.

Theory of sampling: four critical success factors before analysis.

PubMed

Wagner, Claas; Esbensen, Kim H

2015-01-01

Food and feed materials characterization, risk assessment, and safety evaluations can only be ensured if QC measures are based on valid analytical data, stemming from representative samples. The Theory of Sampling (TOS) is the only comprehensive theoretical framework that fully defines all requirements to ensure sampling correctness and representativity, and to provide the guiding principles for sampling in practice. TOS also defines the concept of material heterogeneity and its impact on the sampling process, including the effects from all potential sampling errors. TOS's primary task is to eliminate bias-generating errors and to minimize sampling variability. Quantitative measures are provided to characterize material heterogeneity, on which an optimal sampling strategy should be based. Four critical success factors preceding analysis to ensure a representative sampling process are presented here.

Systematic review of statistical approaches to quantify, or correct for, measurement error in a continuous exposure in nutritional epidemiology.

PubMed

Bennett, Derrick A; Landry, Denise; Little, Julian; Minelli, Cosetta

2017-09-19

Several statistical approaches have been proposed to assess and correct for exposure measurement error. We aimed to provide a critical overview of the most common approaches used in nutritional epidemiology. MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS and CINAHL were searched for reports published in English up to May 2016 in order to ascertain studies that described methods aimed to quantify and/or correct for measurement error for a continuous exposure in nutritional epidemiology using a calibration study. We identified 126 studies, 43 of which described statistical methods and 83 that applied any of these methods to a real dataset. The statistical approaches in the eligible studies were grouped into: a) approaches to quantify the relationship between different dietary assessment instruments and "true intake", which were mostly based on correlation analysis and the method of triads; b) approaches to adjust point and interval estimates of diet-disease associations for measurement error, mostly based on regression calibration analysis and its extensions. Two approaches (multiple imputation and moment reconstruction) were identified that can deal with differential measurement error. For regression calibration, the most common approach to correct for measurement error used in nutritional epidemiology, it is crucial to ensure that its assumptions and requirements are fully met. Analyses that investigate the impact of departures from the classical measurement error model on regression calibration estimates can be helpful to researchers in interpreting their findings. With regard to the possible use of alternative methods when regression calibration is not appropriate, the choice of method should depend on the measurement error model assumed, the availability of suitable calibration study data and the potential for bias due to violation of the classical measurement error model assumptions. On the basis of this review, we provide some practical advice for the use of methods to assess and adjust for measurement error in nutritional epidemiology.

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Constraints on a scale-dependent bias from galaxy clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amendola, L.; Menegoni, E.; Di Porto, C.; Corsi, M.; Branchini, E.

2017-01-01

We forecast the future constraints on scale-dependent parametrizations of galaxy bias and their impact on the estimate of cosmological parameters from the power spectrum of galaxies measured in a spectroscopic redshift survey. For the latter we assume a wide survey at relatively large redshifts, similar to the planned Euclid survey, as the baseline for future experiments. To assess the impact of the bias we perform a Fisher matrix analysis, and we adopt two different parametrizations of scale-dependent bias. The fiducial models for galaxy bias are calibrated using mock catalogs of H α emitting galaxies mimicking the expected properties of the objects that will be targeted by the Euclid survey. In our analysis we have obtained two main results. First of all, allowing for a scale-dependent bias does not significantly increase the errors on the other cosmological parameters apart from the rms amplitude of density fluctuations, σ8 , and the growth index γ , whose uncertainties increase by a factor up to 2, depending on the bias model adopted. Second, we find that the accuracy in the linear bias parameter b0 can be estimated to within 1%-2% at various redshifts regardless of the fiducial model. The nonlinear bias parameters have significantly large errors that depend on the model adopted. Despite this, in the more realistic scenarios departures from the simple linear bias prescription can be detected with a ˜2 σ significance at each redshift explored. Finally, we use the Fisher matrix formalism to assess the impact od assuming an incorrect bias model and find that the systematic errors induced on the cosmological parameters are similar or even larger than the statistical ones.

Survey of editors and reviewers of high-impact psychology journals: statistical and research design problems in submitted manuscripts.

PubMed

Harris, Alex; Reeder, Rachelle; Hyun, Jenny

2011-01-01

The authors surveyed 21 editors and reviewers from major psychology journals to identify and describe the statistical and design errors they encounter most often and to get their advice regarding prevention of these problems. Content analysis of the text responses revealed themes in 3 major areas: (a) problems with research design and reporting (e.g., lack of an a priori power analysis, lack of congruence between research questions and study design/analysis, failure to adequately describe statistical procedures); (b) inappropriate data analysis (e.g., improper use of analysis of variance, too many statistical tests without adjustments, inadequate strategy for addressing missing data); and (c) misinterpretation of results. If researchers attended to these common methodological and analytic issues, the scientific quality of manuscripts submitted to high-impact psychology journals might be significantly improved.

Impact of the HERA I+II combined data on the CT14 QCD global analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dulat, S.; Hou, T.-J.; Gao, J.; Guzzi, M.; Huston, J.; Nadolsky, P.; Pumplin, J.; Schmidt, C.; Stump, D.; Yuan, C.-P.

2016-11-01

A brief description of the impact of the recent HERA run I+II combination of inclusive deep inelastic scattering cross-section data on the CT14 global analysis of PDFs is given. The new CT14HERA2 PDFs at NLO and NNLO are illustrated. They employ the same parametrization used in the CT14 analysis, but with an additional shape parameter for describing the strange quark PDF. The HERA I+II data are reasonably well described by both CT14 and CT14HERA2 PDFs, and differences are smaller than the PDF uncertainties of the standard CT14 analysis. Both sets are acceptable when the error estimates are calculated in the CTEQ-TEA (CT) methodology and the standard CT14 PDFs are recommended to be continuously used for the analysis of LHC measurements.

Adaptive use of research aircraft data sets for hurricane forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, M. K.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2008-02-01

This study uses an adaptive observational strategy for hurricane forecasting. It shows the impacts of Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) and dropsonde data sets from Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) field campaigns on hurricane track and intensity forecasts. The following cases are used in this study: Bonnie, Danielle and Georges of 1998 and Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto of 2001. A single model run for each storm is carried out using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis as initial conditions, in addition to 50 other model runs where the analysis is randomly perturbed for each storm. The centers of maximum variance of the DLM heights are located from the forecast error variance fields at the 84-hr forecast. Back correlations are then performed using the centers of these maximum variances and the fields at the 36-hr forecast. The regions having the highest correlations in the vicinity of the hurricanes are indicative of regions from where the error growth emanates and suggests the need for additional observations. Data sets are next assimilated in those areas that contain high correlations. Forecasts are computed using the new initial conditions for the storm cases, and track and intensity skills are then examined with respect to the control forecast. The adaptive strategy is capable of identifying sensitive areas where additional observations can help in reducing the hurricane track forecast errors. A reduction of position error by approximately 52% for day 3 of forecast (averaged over 7 storm cases) over the control runs is observed. The intensity forecast shows only a slight positive impact due to the model’s coarse resolution.

Clinical implications and economic impact of accuracy differences among commercially available blood glucose monitoring systems.

PubMed

Budiman, Erwin S; Samant, Navendu; Resch, Ansgar

2013-03-01

Despite accuracy standards, there are performance differences among commercially available blood glucose monitoring (BGM) systems. The objective of this analysis was to assess the potential clinical and economic impact of accuracy differences of various BGM systems using a modeling approach. We simulated additional risk of hypoglycemia due to blood glucose (BG) measurement errors of five different BGM systems based on results of a real-world accuracy study, while retaining other sources of glycemic variability. Using data from published literature, we estimated an annual additional number of required medical interventions as a result of hypoglycemia. We based our calculations on patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and T2DM requiring multiple daily injections (MDIs) of insulin in a U.S. health care system. We estimated additional costs attributable to treatment of severe hypoglycemic episodes resulting from BG measurement errors. Results from our model predict an annual difference of approximately 296,000 severe hypoglycemic episodes from BG measurement errors for T1DM (105,000 for T2DM MDI) patients for the estimated U.S. population of 958,800 T1DM and 1,353,600 T2DM MDI patients, using the least accurate BGM system versus patients using the most accurate system in a U.S. health care system. This resulted in additional direct costs of approximately $339 million for T1DM and approximately $121 million for T2DM MDI patients per year. Our analysis shows that error patterns over the operating range of BGM meter may lead to relevant clinical and economic outcome differences that may not be reflected in a common accuracy metric or standard. Further research is necessary to validate the findings of this model-based approach. © 2013 Diabetes Technology Society.

Clinical Implications and Economic Impact of Accuracy Differences among Commercially Available Blood Glucose Monitoring Systems

PubMed Central

Budiman, Erwin S.; Samant, Navendu; Resch, Ansgar

2013-01-01

Background Despite accuracy standards, there are performance differences among commercially available blood glucose monitoring (BGM) systems. The objective of this analysis was to assess the potential clinical and economic impact of accuracy differences of various BGM systems using a modeling approach. Methods We simulated additional risk of hypoglycemia due to blood glucose (BG) measurement errors of five different BGM systems based on results of a real-world accuracy study, while retaining other sources of glycemic variability. Using data from published literature, we estimated an annual additional number of required medical interventions as a result of hypoglycemia. We based our calculations on patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and T2DM requiring multiple daily injections (MDIs) of insulin in a U.S. health care system. We estimated additional costs attributable to treatment of severe hypoglycemic episodes resulting from BG measurement errors.. Results Results from our model predict an annual difference of approximately 296,000 severe hypoglycemic episodes from BG measurement errors for T1DM (105,000 for T2DM MDI) patients for the estimated U.S. population of 958,800 T1DM and 1,353,600 T2DM MDI patients, using the least accurate BGM system versus patients using the most accurate system in a U.S. health care system. This resulted in additional direct costs of approximately $339 million for T1DM and approximately $121 million for T2DM MDI patients per year. Conclusions Our analysis shows that error patterns over the operating range of BGM meter may lead to relevant clinical and economic outcome differences that may not be reflected in a common accuracy metric or standard. PMID:23566995

Probing the Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Temporal Aliasing Errors and their Impact on Satellite Gravity Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiese, D. N.; McCullough, C. M.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that both single pair low-low satellite-to-satellite tracking (LL-SST) and dual-pair LL-SST hypothetical future satellite gravimetry missions utilizing improved onboard measurement systems relative to the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) will be limited by temporal aliasing errors; that is, the error introduced through deficiencies in models of high frequency mass variations required for the data processing. Here, we probe the spatio-temporal characteristics of temporal aliasing errors to understand their impact on satellite gravity retrievals using high fidelity numerical simulations. We find that while aliasing errors are dominant at long wavelengths and multi-day timescales, improving knowledge of high frequency mass variations at these resolutions translates into only modest improvements (i.e. spatial resolution/accuracy) in the ability to measure temporal gravity variations at monthly timescales. This result highlights the reliance on accurate models of high frequency mass variations for gravity processing, and the difficult nature of reducing temporal aliasing errors and their impact on satellite gravity retrievals.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health.MethodsZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NOx, EC, PM2.5, SO4, O3) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error.Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs.ResultsSubstantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3–85% for population error, and 31–85% for total error. When CO, NOx or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copoll

Engineering the electronic health record for safety: a multi-level video-based approach to diagnosing and preventing technology-induced error arising from usability problems.

PubMed

Borycki, Elizabeth M; Kushniruk, Andre W; Kuwata, Shigeki; Kannry, Joseph

2011-01-01

Electronic health records (EHRs) promise to improve and streamline healthcare through electronic entry and retrieval of patient data. Furthermore, based on a number of studies showing their positive benefits, they promise to reduce medical error and make healthcare safer. However, a growing body of literature has clearly documented that if EHRS are not designed properly and with usability as an important goal in their design, rather than reducing error, EHR deployment has the potential to actually increase medical error. In this paper we describe our approach to engineering (and reengineering) EHRs in order to increase their beneficial potential while at the same time improving their safety. The approach described in this paper involves an integration of the methods of usability analysis with video analysis of end users interacting with EHR systems and extends the evaluation of the usability of EHRs to include the assessment of the impact of these systems on work practices. Using clinical simulations, we analyze human-computer interaction in real healthcare settings (in a portable, low-cost and high fidelity manner) and include both artificial and naturalistic data collection to identify potential usability problems and sources of technology-induced error prior to widespread system release. Two case studies where the methods we have developed and refined have been applied at different levels of user-computer interaction are described.

Use of geographic information systems to assess the error associated with the use of place of residence in injury research.

PubMed

Amram, Ofer; Schuurman, Nadine; Yanchar, Natalie L; Pike, Ian; Friger, Michael; Griesdale, Donald

In any spatial research, the use of accurate location data is critical to the reliability of the results. Unfortunately, however, many of the administrative data sets used in injury research do not include the location at which the injury takes place. The aim of this paper is to examine the error associated with using place of residence as opposed to place of injury when identifying injury hotspots and hospital access. Traumatic Brian Injury (TBI) data from the BC Trauma Registry (BCTR) was used to identify all TBI patients admitted to BC hospitals between January 2000 and March 2013. In order to estimate how locational error impacts the identification of injury hotspots, the data was aggregated to the level of dissemination area (DA) and census tract (CT) and a linear regression was performed using place of residence as a predictor for place of injury. In order to assess the impact of locational error in studies examining hospital access, an analysis of the driving time between place of injury and place of residence and the difference in driving time between place of residence and the treatment hospital, and place of injury and the same hospital was conducted. The driving time analysis indicated that 73.3 % of the injuries occurred within 5 min of place of residence, 11.2 % between five and ten minutes and 15.5 % over 20 min. Misclassification error occurs at both the DA and CT level. The residual map of the DA clearly shows more detailed misclassification. As expected, the driving time between place of residence and place of injury and the difference between these same two locations and the treatment hospital share a positive relationship. In fact, the larger the distance was between the two locations, the larger the error was when estimating access to hospital. Our results highlight the need for more systematic recording of place of injury as this will allow researchers to more accurately pinpoint where injuries occur. It will also allow researchers to identify the causes of these injuries and to determine how these injuries might be prevented.

Understanding Human Error in Naval Aviation Mishaps.

PubMed

Miranda, Andrew T

2018-04-01

To better understand the external factors that influence the performance and decisions of aviators involved in Naval aviation mishaps. Mishaps in complex activities, ranging from aviation to nuclear power operations, are often the result of interactions between multiple components within an organization. The Naval aviation mishap database contains relevant information, both in quantitative statistics and qualitative reports, that permits analysis of such interactions to identify how the working atmosphere influences aviator performance and judgment. Results from 95 severe Naval aviation mishaps that occurred from 2011 through 2016 were analyzed using Bayes' theorem probability formula. Then a content analysis was performed on a subset of relevant mishap reports. Out of the 14 latent factors analyzed, the Bayes' application identified 6 that impacted specific aspects of aviator behavior during mishaps. Technological environment, misperceptions, and mental awareness impacted basic aviation skills. The remaining 3 factors were used to inform a content analysis of the contextual information within mishap reports. Teamwork failures were the result of plan continuation aggravated by diffused responsibility. Resource limitations and risk management deficiencies impacted judgments made by squadron commanders. The application of Bayes' theorem to historical mishap data revealed the role of latent factors within Naval aviation mishaps. Teamwork failures were seen to be considerably damaging to both aviator skill and judgment. Both the methods and findings have direct application for organizations interested in understanding the relationships between external factors and human error. It presents real-world evidence to promote effective safety decisions.

Error rates in forensic DNA analysis: definition, numbers, impact and communication.

PubMed

Kloosterman, Ate; Sjerps, Marjan; Quak, Astrid

2014-09-01

Forensic DNA casework is currently regarded as one of the most important types of forensic evidence, and important decisions in intelligence and justice are based on it. However, errors occasionally occur and may have very serious consequences. In other domains, error rates have been defined and published. The forensic domain is lagging behind concerning this transparency for various reasons. In this paper we provide definitions and observed frequencies for different types of errors at the Human Biological Traces Department of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) over the years 2008-2012. Furthermore, we assess their actual and potential impact and describe how the NFI deals with the communication of these numbers to the legal justice system. We conclude that the observed relative frequency of quality failures is comparable to studies from clinical laboratories and genetic testing centres. Furthermore, this frequency is constant over the five-year study period. The most common causes of failures related to the laboratory process were contamination and human error. Most human errors could be corrected, whereas gross contamination in crime samples often resulted in irreversible consequences. Hence this type of contamination is identified as the most significant source of error. Of the known contamination incidents, most were detected by the NFI quality control system before the report was issued to the authorities, and thus did not lead to flawed decisions like false convictions. However in a very limited number of cases crucial errors were detected after the report was issued, sometimes with severe consequences. Many of these errors were made in the post-analytical phase. The error rates reported in this paper are useful for quality improvement and benchmarking, and contribute to an open research culture that promotes public trust. However, they are irrelevant in the context of a particular case. Here case-specific probabilities of undetected errors are needed. These should be reported, separately from the match probability, when requested by the court or when there are internal or external indications for error. It should also be made clear that there are various other issues to consider, like DNA transfer. Forensic statistical models, in particular Bayesian networks, may be useful to take the various uncertainties into account and demonstrate their effects on the evidential value of the forensic DNA results. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis of Silica Exposure and Lung Cancer Using Human and Animal Studies.

PubMed

Bartell, Scott M; Hamra, Ghassan Badri; Steenland, Kyle

2017-03-01

Bayesian methods can be used to incorporate external information into epidemiologic exposure-response analyses of silica and lung cancer. We used data from a pooled mortality analysis of silica and lung cancer (n = 65,980), using untransformed and log-transformed cumulative exposure. Animal data came from chronic silica inhalation studies using rats. We conducted Bayesian analyses with informative priors based on the animal data and different cross-species extrapolation factors. We also conducted analyses with exposure measurement error corrections in the absence of a gold standard, assuming Berkson-type error that increased with increasing exposure. The pooled animal data exposure-response coefficient was markedly higher (log exposure) or lower (untransformed exposure) than the coefficient for the pooled human data. With 10-fold uncertainty, the animal prior had little effect on results for pooled analyses and only modest effects in some individual studies. One-fold uncertainty produced markedly different results for both pooled and individual studies. Measurement error correction had little effect in pooled analyses using log exposure. Using untransformed exposure, measurement error correction caused a 5% decrease in the exposure-response coefficient for the pooled analysis and marked changes in some individual studies. The animal prior had more impact for smaller human studies and for one-fold versus three- or 10-fold uncertainty. Adjustment for Berkson error using Bayesian methods had little effect on the exposure-response coefficient when exposure was log transformed or when the sample size was large. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B160.

Personnel reliability impact on petrochemical facilities monitoring system's failure skipping probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyukov, V. N.; Naumenko, A. P.

2017-08-01

The paper dwells upon urgent issues of evaluating impact of actions conducted by complex technological systems operators on their safe operation considering application of condition monitoring systems for elements and sub-systems of petrochemical production facilities. The main task for the research is to distinguish factors and criteria of monitoring system properties description, which would allow to evaluate impact of errors made by personnel on operation of real-time condition monitoring and diagnostic systems for machinery of petrochemical facilities, and find and objective criteria for monitoring system class, considering a human factor. On the basis of real-time condition monitoring concepts of sudden failure skipping risk, static and dynamic error, monitoring systems, one may solve a task of evaluation of impact that personnel's qualification has on monitoring system operation in terms of error in personnel or operators' actions while receiving information from monitoring systems and operating a technological system. Operator is considered as a part of the technological system. Although, personnel's behavior is usually a combination of the following parameters: input signal - information perceiving, reaction - decision making, response - decision implementing. Based on several researches on behavior of nuclear powers station operators in USA, Italy and other countries, as well as on researches conducted by Russian scientists, required data on operator's reliability were selected for analysis of operator's behavior at technological facilities diagnostics and monitoring systems. The calculations revealed that for the monitoring system selected as an example, the failure skipping risk for the set values of static (less than 0.01) and dynamic (less than 0.001) errors considering all related factors of data on reliability of information perception, decision-making, and reaction fulfilled is 0.037, in case when all the facilities and error probability are under control - not more than 0.027. In case when only pump and compressor units are under control, the failure skipping risk is not more than 0.022, when the probability of error in operator's action is not more than 0.011. The work output shows that on the basis of the researches results an assessment of operators' reliability can be made in terms of almost any kind of production, but considering only technological capabilities, since operators' psychological and general training considerable vary in different production industries. Using latest technologies of engineering psychology and design of data support systems, situation assessment systems, decision-making and responding system, as well as achievement in condition monitoring in various production industries one can evaluate hazardous condition skipping risk probability considering static, dynamic errors and human factor.

Fast Determination of Distribution-Connected PV Impacts Using a Variable Time-Step Quasi-Static Time-Series Approach: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mather, Barry

The increasing deployment of distribution-connected photovoltaic (DPV) systems requires utilities to complete complex interconnection studies. Relatively simple interconnection study methods worked well for low penetrations of photovoltaic systems, but more complicated quasi-static time-series (QSTS) analysis is required to make better interconnection decisions as DPV penetration levels increase. Tools and methods must be developed to support this. This paper presents a variable-time-step solver for QSTS analysis that significantly shortens the computational time and effort to complete a detailed analysis of the operation of a distribution circuit with many DPV systems. Specifically, it demonstrates that the proposed variable-time-step solver can reduce themore » required computational time by as much as 84% without introducing any important errors to metrics, such as the highest and lowest voltage occurring on the feeder, number of voltage regulator tap operations, and total amount of losses realized in the distribution circuit during a 1-yr period. Further improvement in computational speed is possible with the introduction of only modest errors in these metrics, such as a 91 percent reduction with less than 5 percent error when predicting voltage regulator operations.« less

Analysis of the technology acceptance model in examining hospital nurses' behavioral intentions toward the use of bar code medication administration.

PubMed

Song, Lunar; Park, Byeonghwa; Oh, Kyeung Mi

2015-04-01

Serious medication errors continue to exist in hospitals, even though there is technology that could potentially eliminate them such as bar code medication administration. Little is known about the degree to which the culture of patient safety is associated with behavioral intention to use bar code medication administration. Based on the Technology Acceptance Model, this study evaluated the relationships among patient safety culture and perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, and behavioral intention to use bar code medication administration technology among nurses in hospitals. Cross-sectional surveys with a convenience sample of 163 nurses using bar code medication administration were conducted. Feedback and communication about errors had a positive impact in predicting perceived usefulness (β=.26, P<.01) and perceived ease of use (β=.22, P<.05). In a multiple regression model predicting for behavioral intention, age had a negative impact (β=-.17, P<.05); however, teamwork within hospital units (β=.20, P<.05) and perceived usefulness (β=.35, P<.01) both had a positive impact on behavioral intention. The overall bar code medication administration behavioral intention model explained 24% (P<.001) of the variance. Identified factors influencing bar code medication administration behavioral intention can help inform hospitals to develop tailored interventions for RNs to reduce medication administration errors and increase patient safety by using this technology.

Analysis and Compensation of Modulation Angular Rate Error Based on Missile-Borne Rotation Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jiayu; Li, Jie; Zhang, Xi; Che, Xiaorui; Huang, Yugang; Feng, Kaiqiang

2018-01-01

The Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SSINS) provides a new solution to attitude measurement of a high-speed rotating missile. However, micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMS) inertial measurement unit (MIMU) outputs are corrupted by significant sensor errors. In order to improve the navigation precision, a rotation modulation technology method called Rotation Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (RSSINS) is introduced into SINS. In fact, the stability of the modulation angular rate is difficult to achieve in a high-speed rotation environment. The changing rotary angular rate has an impact on the inertial sensor error self-compensation. In this paper, the influence of modulation angular rate error, including acceleration-deceleration process, and instability of the angular rate on the navigation accuracy of RSSINS is deduced and the error characteristics of the reciprocating rotation scheme are analyzed. A new compensation method is proposed to remove or reduce sensor errors so as to make it possible to maintain high precision autonomous navigation performance by MIMU when there is no external aid. Experiments have been carried out to validate the performance of the method. In addition, the proposed method is applicable for modulation angular rate error compensation under various dynamic conditions. PMID:29734707

Sensitivity study on durability variables of marine concrete structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xin'gang; Li, Kefei

2013-06-01

In order to study the influence of parameters on durability of marine concrete structures, the parameter's sensitivity analysis was studied in this paper. With the Fick's 2nd law of diffusion and the deterministic sensitivity analysis method (DSA), the sensitivity factors of apparent surface chloride content, apparent chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the impact of design variables on concrete durability was different. The values of sensitivity factor of chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were higher than others. Relative less error in chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation coefficient induces a bigger error in concrete durability design and life prediction. According to probability sensitivity analysis (PSA), the influence of mean value and variance of concrete durability design variables on the durability failure probability was studied. The results of the study provide quantitative measures of the importance of concrete durability design and life prediction variables. It was concluded that the chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor have more influence on the reliability of marine concrete structural durability. In durability design and life prediction of marine concrete structures, it was very important to reduce the measure and statistic error of durability design variables.

Effects of Measurement Errors on Individual Tree Stem Volume Estimates for the Austrian National Forest Inventory

Treesearch

Ambros Berger; Thomas Gschwantner; Ronald E. McRoberts; Klemens Schadauer

2014-01-01

National forest inventories typically estimate individual tree volumes using models that rely on measurements of predictor variables such as tree height and diameter, both of which are subject to measurement error. The aim of this study was to quantify the impacts of these measurement errors on the uncertainty of the model-based tree stem volume estimates. The impacts...

The (mis)reporting of statistical results in psychology journals.

PubMed

Bakker, Marjan; Wicherts, Jelte M

2011-09-01

In order to study the prevalence, nature (direction), and causes of reporting errors in psychology, we checked the consistency of reported test statistics, degrees of freedom, and p values in a random sample of high- and low-impact psychology journals. In a second study, we established the generality of reporting errors in a random sample of recent psychological articles. Our results, on the basis of 281 articles, indicate that around 18% of statistical results in the psychological literature are incorrectly reported. Inconsistencies were more common in low-impact journals than in high-impact journals. Moreover, around 15% of the articles contained at least one statistical conclusion that proved, upon recalculation, to be incorrect; that is, recalculation rendered the previously significant result insignificant, or vice versa. These errors were often in line with researchers' expectations. We classified the most common errors and contacted authors to shed light on the origins of the errors.

Photon nonlinear mixing in subcarrier multiplexed quantum key distribution systems.

PubMed

Capmany, José

2009-04-13

We provide, for the first time to our knowledge, an analysis of the influence of nonlinear photon mixing on the end to end quantum bit error rate (QBER) performance of subcarrier multiplexed quantum key distribution systems. The results show that negligible impact is to be expected for modulation indexes in the range of 2%.

Evaluation of Remotely Sensed Data for the Application of Geospatial Techniques to Assess Hurricane Impacts on Coastal Bird Habitat

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

habitat analysis because of the high horizontal error between the mosaicked image tiles . The imagery was collected with a non-metric camera and likewise...possible with true color imagery (digital orthophotos ) or multispectral imagery, but usually comes at a much higher cost. Due to its availability and

Bayesian Analysis and Design for Joint Modeling of Two Binary Responses with Misclassification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stamey, James D.; Beavers, Daniel P.; Sherr, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Survey data are often subject to various types of errors such as misclassification. In this article, we consider a model where interest is simultaneously in two correlated response variables and one is potentially subject to misclassification. A motivating example of a recent study of the impact of a sexual education course for adolescents is…

Examining Feedback in an Instructional Video Game Using Process Data and Error Analysis. CRESST Report 817

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buschang, Rebecca E.; Kerr, Deirdre S.; Chung, Gregory K. W. K.

2012-01-01

Appropriately designed technology-based learning environments such as video games can be used to give immediate and individualized feedback to students. However, little is known about the design and use of feedback in instructional video games. This study investigated how feedback used in a mathematics video game about fractions impacted student…

Cover-Copy-Compare and Spelling: One versus Three Repetitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erion, Joel; Davenport, Cindy; Rodax, Nicole; Scholl, Bethany; Hardy, Jennifer

2009-01-01

Cover, copy, compare (CCC) has been used with success to improve spelling skills. This study adds to existing research by completing an analysis of the rewriting component of the intervention. The impact of varying the number of times a subject copied a word following an error was examined with four elementary age students. An adaptive alternating…

Impact of an antiretroviral stewardship strategy on medication error rates.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M; Hobbs, Athena Lv; Shumake, Jason D; Templet, Derek J; Padilla-Tolentino, Eimeira; Mondy, Kristin E

2018-05-02

The impact of an antiretroviral stewardship strategy on medication error rates was evaluated. This single-center, retrospective, comparative cohort study included patients at least 18 years of age infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who were receiving antiretrovirals and admitted to the hospital. A multicomponent approach was developed and implemented and included modifications to the order-entry and verification system, pharmacist education, and a pharmacist-led antiretroviral therapy checklist. Pharmacists performed prospective audits using the checklist at the time of order verification. To assess the impact of the intervention, a retrospective review was performed before and after implementation to assess antiretroviral errors. Totals of 208 and 24 errors were identified before and after the intervention, respectively, resulting in a significant reduction in the overall error rate ( p < 0.001). In the postintervention group, significantly lower medication error rates were found in both patient admissions containing at least 1 medication error ( p < 0.001) and those with 2 or more errors ( p < 0.001). Significant reductions were also identified in each error type, including incorrect/incomplete medication regimen, incorrect dosing regimen, incorrect renal dose adjustment, incorrect administration, and the presence of a major drug-drug interaction. A regression tree selected ritonavir as the only specific medication that best predicted more errors preintervention ( p < 0.001); however, no antiretrovirals reliably predicted errors postintervention. An antiretroviral stewardship strategy for hospitalized HIV patients including prospective audit by staff pharmacists through use of an antiretroviral medication therapy checklist at the time of order verification decreased error rates. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Outpatient Prescribing Errors and the Impact of Computerized Prescribing

PubMed Central

Gandhi, Tejal K; Weingart, Saul N; Seger, Andrew C; Borus, Joshua; Burdick, Elisabeth; Poon, Eric G; Leape, Lucian L; Bates, David W

2005-01-01

Background Medication errors are common among inpatients and many are preventable with computerized prescribing. Relatively little is known about outpatient prescribing errors or the impact of computerized prescribing in this setting. Objective To assess the rates, types, and severity of outpatient prescribing errors and understand the potential impact of computerized prescribing. Design Prospective cohort study in 4 adult primary care practices in Boston using prescription review, patient survey, and chart review to identify medication errors, potential adverse drug events (ADEs) and preventable ADEs. Participants Outpatients over age 18 who received a prescription from 24 participating physicians. Results We screened 1879 prescriptions from 1202 patients, and completed 661 surveys (response rate 55%). Of the prescriptions, 143 (7.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.4% to 8.8%) contained a prescribing error. Three errors led to preventable ADEs and 62 (43%; 3% of all prescriptions) had potential for patient injury (potential ADEs); 1 was potentially life-threatening (2%) and 15 were serious (24%). Errors in frequency (n=77, 54%) and dose (n=26, 18%) were common. The rates of medication errors and potential ADEs were not significantly different at basic computerized prescribing sites (4.3% vs 11.0%, P=.31; 2.6% vs 4.0%, P=.16) compared to handwritten sites. Advanced checks (including dose and frequency checking) could have prevented 95% of potential ADEs. Conclusions Prescribing errors occurred in 7.6% of outpatient prescriptions and many could have harmed patients. Basic computerized prescribing systems may not be adequate to reduce errors. More advanced systems with dose and frequency checking are likely needed to prevent potentially harmful errors. PMID:16117752

Relationships of Measurement Error and Prediction Error in Observed-Score Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Tim

2012-01-01

The focus of this paper is assessing the impact of measurement errors on the prediction error of an observed-score regression. Measures are presented and described for decomposing the linear regression's prediction error variance into parts attributable to the true score variance and the error variances of the dependent variable and the predictor…

Addressing Systematic Errors in Correlation Tracking on HMI Magnetograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, Sushant S.; Hathaway, David H.; Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Martens, Petrus C.

2017-08-01

Correlation tracking in solar magnetograms is an effective method to measure the differential rotation and meridional flow on the solar surface. However, since the tracking accuracy required to successfully measure meridional flow is very high, small systematic errors have a noticeable impact on measured meridional flow profiles. Additionally, the uncertainties of this kind of measurements have been historically underestimated, leading to controversy regarding flow profiles at high latitudes extracted from measurements which are unreliable near the solar limb.Here we present a set of systematic errors we have identified (and potential solutions), including bias caused by physical pixel sizes, center-to-limb systematics, and discrepancies between measurements performed using different time intervals. We have developed numerical techniques to get rid of these systematic errors and in the process improve the accuracy of the measurements by an order of magnitude.We also present a detailed analysis of uncertainties in these measurements using synthetic magnetograms and the quantification of an upper limit below which meridional flow measurements cannot be trusted as a function of latitude.

Accounting for response misclassification and covariate measurement error improves power and reduces bias in epidemiologic studies.

PubMed

Cheng, Dunlei; Branscum, Adam J; Stamey, James D

2010-07-01

To quantify the impact of ignoring misclassification of a response variable and measurement error in a covariate on statistical power, and to develop software for sample size and power analysis that accounts for these flaws in epidemiologic data. A Monte Carlo simulation-based procedure is developed to illustrate the differences in design requirements and inferences between analytic methods that properly account for misclassification and measurement error to those that do not in regression models for cross-sectional and cohort data. We found that failure to account for these flaws in epidemiologic data can lead to a substantial reduction in statistical power, over 25% in some cases. The proposed method substantially reduced bias by up to a ten-fold margin compared to naive estimates obtained by ignoring misclassification and mismeasurement. We recommend as routine practice that researchers account for errors in measurement of both response and covariate data when determining sample size, performing power calculations, or analyzing data from epidemiological studies. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Error Modeling of Multibaseline Optical Truss: Part 1: Modeling of System Level Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milman, Mark H.; Korechoff, R. E.; Zhang, L. D.

2004-01-01

Global astrometry is the measurement of stellar positions and motions. These are typically characterized by five parameters, including two position parameters, two proper motion parameters, and parallax. The Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) will derive these parameters for a grid of approximately 1300 stars covering the celestial sphere to an accuracy of approximately 4uas, representing a two orders of magnitude improvement over the most precise current star catalogues. Narrow angle astrometry will be performed to a 1uas accuracy. A wealth of scientific information will be obtained from these accurate measurements encompassing many aspects of both galactic (and extragalactic science. SIM will be subject to a number of instrument errors that can potentially degrade performance. Many of these errors are systematic in that they are relatively static and repeatable with respect to the time frame and direction of the observation. This paper and its companion define the modeling of the, contributing factors to these errors and the analysis of how they impact SIM's ability to perform astrometric science.

CME Velocity and Acceleration Error Estimates Using the Bootstrap Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michalek, Grzegorz; Gopalswamy, Nat; Yashiro, Seiji

2017-01-01

The bootstrap method is used to determine errors of basic attributes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) visually identified in images obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission's Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instruments. The basic parameters of CMEs are stored, among others, in a database known as the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog and are widely employed for many research studies. The basic attributes of CMEs (e.g. velocity and acceleration) are obtained from manually generated height-time plots. The subjective nature of manual measurements introduces random errors that are difficult to quantify. In many studies the impact of such measurement errors is overlooked. In this study we present a new possibility to estimate measurements errors in the basic attributes of CMEs. This approach is a computer-intensive method because it requires repeating the original data analysis procedure several times using replicate datasets. This is also commonly called the bootstrap method in the literature. We show that the bootstrap approach can be used to estimate the errors of the basic attributes of CMEs having moderately large numbers of height-time measurements. The velocity errors are in the vast majority small and depend mostly on the number of height-time points measured for a particular event. In the case of acceleration, the errors are significant, and for more than half of all CMEs, they are larger than the acceleration itself.

Accounting for uncertain fault geometry in earthquake source inversions - I: theory and simplified application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragon, Théa; Sladen, Anthony; Simons, Mark

2018-05-01

The ill-posed nature of earthquake source estimation derives from several factors including the quality and quantity of available observations and the fidelity of our forward theory. Observational errors are usually accounted for in the inversion process. Epistemic errors, which stem from our simplified description of the forward problem, are rarely dealt with despite their potential to bias the estimate of a source model. In this study, we explore the impact of uncertainties related to the choice of a fault geometry in source inversion problems. The geometry of a fault structure is generally reduced to a set of parameters, such as position, strike and dip, for one or a few planar fault segments. While some of these parameters can be solved for, more often they are fixed to an uncertain value. We propose a practical framework to address this limitation by following a previously implemented method exploring the impact of uncertainties on the elastic properties of our models. We develop a sensitivity analysis to small perturbations of fault dip and position. The uncertainties in fault geometry are included in the inverse problem under the formulation of the misfit covariance matrix that combines both prediction and observation uncertainties. We validate this approach with the simplified case of a fault that extends infinitely along strike, using both Bayesian and optimization formulations of a static inversion. If epistemic errors are ignored, predictions are overconfident in the data and source parameters are not reliably estimated. In contrast, inclusion of uncertainties in fault geometry allows us to infer a robust posterior source model. Epistemic uncertainties can be many orders of magnitude larger than observational errors for great earthquakes (Mw > 8). Not accounting for uncertainties in fault geometry may partly explain observed shallow slip deficits for continental earthquakes. Similarly, ignoring the impact of epistemic errors can also bias estimates of near surface slip and predictions of tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes. (Mw > 8)

Modeling longitudinal data, I: principles of multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Ravani, Pietro; Barrett, Brendan; Parfrey, Patrick

2009-01-01

Statistical models are used to study the relationship between exposure and disease while accounting for the potential role of other factors' impact on outcomes. This adjustment is useful to obtain unbiased estimates of true effects or to predict future outcomes. Statistical models include a systematic component and an error component. The systematic component explains the variability of the response variable as a function of the predictors and is summarized in the effect estimates (model coefficients). The error element of the model represents the variability in the data unexplained by the model and is used to build measures of precision around the point estimates (confidence intervals).

Average capacity of the ground to train communication link of a curved track in the turbulence of gamma-gamma distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yanqiu; Yu, Lin; Zhang, Yixin

2017-04-01

A model of the average capacity of optical wireless communication link with pointing errors for the ground-to-train of the curved track is established based on the non-Kolmogorov. By adopting the gamma-gamma distribution model, we derive the average capacity expression for this channel. The numerical analysis reveals that heavier fog reduces the average capacity of link. The strength of atmospheric turbulence, the variance of pointing errors, and the covered track length need to be reduced for the larger average capacity of link. The normalized beamwidth and the average signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the turbulence-free link need to be increased. We can increase the transmit aperture to expand the beamwidth and enhance the signal intensity, thereby decreasing the impact of the beam wander accordingly. As the system adopting the automatic tracking of beam at the receiver positioned on the roof of the train, for eliminating the pointing errors caused by beam wander and train vibration, the equivalent average capacity of the channel will achieve a maximum value. The impact of the non-Kolmogorov spectral index's variation on the average capacity of link can be ignored.

Use of error grid analysis to evaluate acceptability of a point of care prothrombin time meter.

PubMed

Petersen, John R; Vonmarensdorf, Hans M; Weiss, Heidi L; Elghetany, M Tarek

2010-02-01

Statistical methods (linear regression, correlation analysis, etc.) are frequently employed in comparing methods in the central laboratory (CL). Assessing acceptability of point of care testing (POCT) equipment, however, is more difficult because statistically significant biases may not have an impact on clinical care. We showed how error grid (EG) analysis can be used to evaluate POCT PT INR with the CL. We compared results from 103 patients seen in an anti-coagulation clinic that were on Coumadin maintenance therapy using fingerstick samples for POCT (Roche CoaguChek XS and S) and citrated venous blood samples for CL (Stago STAR). To compare clinical acceptability of results we developed an EG with zones A, B, C and D. Using 2nd order polynomial equation analysis, POCT results highly correlate with the CL for CoaguChek XS (R(2)=0. 955) and CoaguChek S (R(2)=0. 93), respectively but does not indicate if POCT results are clinically interchangeable with the CL. Using EG it is readily apparent which levels can be considered clinically identical to the CL despite analytical bias. We have demonstrated the usefulness of EG in determining acceptability of POCT PT INR testing and how it can be used to determine cut-offs where differences in POCT results may impact clinical care. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalized Background Error covariance matrix model (GEN_BE v2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Descombes, G.; Auligné, T.; Vandenberghe, F.; Barker, D. M.

2014-07-01

The specification of state background error statistics is a key component of data assimilation since it affects the impact observations will have on the analysis. In the variational data assimilation approach, applied in geophysical sciences, the dimensions of the background error covariance matrix (B) are usually too large to be explicitly determined and B needs to be modeled. Recent efforts to include new variables in the analysis such as cloud parameters and chemical species have required the development of the code to GENerate the Background Errors (GEN_BE) version 2.0 for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) community model to allow for a simpler, flexible, robust, and community-oriented framework that gathers methods used by meteorological operational centers and researchers. We present the advantages of this new design for the data assimilation community by performing benchmarks and showing some of the new features on data assimilation test cases. As data assimilation for clouds remains a challenge, we present a multivariate approach that includes hydrometeors in the control variables and new correlated errors. In addition, the GEN_BE v2.0 code is employed to diagnose error parameter statistics for chemical species, which shows that it is a tool flexible enough to involve new control variables. While the generation of the background errors statistics code has been first developed for atmospheric research, the new version (GEN_BE v2.0) can be easily extended to other domains of science and be chosen as a testbed for diagnostic and new modeling of B. Initially developed for variational data assimilation, the model of the B matrix may be useful for variational ensemble hybrid methods as well.

Generalized background error covariance matrix model (GEN_BE v2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Descombes, G.; Auligné, T.; Vandenberghe, F.; Barker, D. M.; Barré, J.

2015-03-01

The specification of state background error statistics is a key component of data assimilation since it affects the impact observations will have on the analysis. In the variational data assimilation approach, applied in geophysical sciences, the dimensions of the background error covariance matrix (B) are usually too large to be explicitly determined and B needs to be modeled. Recent efforts to include new variables in the analysis such as cloud parameters and chemical species have required the development of the code to GENerate the Background Errors (GEN_BE) version 2.0 for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) community model. GEN_BE allows for a simpler, flexible, robust, and community-oriented framework that gathers methods used by some meteorological operational centers and researchers. We present the advantages of this new design for the data assimilation community by performing benchmarks of different modeling of B and showing some of the new features in data assimilation test cases. As data assimilation for clouds remains a challenge, we present a multivariate approach that includes hydrometeors in the control variables and new correlated errors. In addition, the GEN_BE v2.0 code is employed to diagnose error parameter statistics for chemical species, which shows that it is a tool flexible enough to implement new control variables. While the generation of the background errors statistics code was first developed for atmospheric research, the new version (GEN_BE v2.0) can be easily applied to other domains of science and chosen to diagnose and model B. Initially developed for variational data assimilation, the model of the B matrix may be useful for variational ensemble hybrid methods as well.

Measuring the relationship between interruptions, multitasking and prescribing errors in an emergency department: a study protocol

PubMed Central

Raban, Magdalena Z; Walter, Scott R; Douglas, Heather E; Strumpman, Dana; Mackenzie, John; Westbrook, Johanna I

2015-01-01

Introduction Interruptions and multitasking are frequent in clinical settings, and have been shown in the cognitive psychology literature to affect performance, increasing the risk of error. However, comparatively less is known about their impact on errors in clinical work. This study will assess the relationship between prescribing errors, interruptions and multitasking in an emergency department (ED) using direct observations and chart review. Methods and analysis The study will be conducted in an ED of a 440-bed teaching hospital in Sydney, Australia. Doctors will be shadowed at proximity by observers for 2 h time intervals while they are working on day shift (between 0800 and 1800). Time stamped data on tasks, interruptions and multitasking will be recorded on a handheld computer using the validated Work Observation Method by Activity Timing (WOMBAT) tool. The prompts leading to interruptions and multitasking will also be recorded. When doctors prescribe medication, type of chart and chart sections written on, along with the patient's medical record number (MRN) will be recorded. A clinical pharmacist will access patient records and assess the medication orders for prescribing errors. The prescribing error rate will be calculated per prescribing task and is defined as the number of errors divided by the number of medication orders written during the prescribing task. The association between prescribing error rates, and rates of prompts, interruptions and multitasking will be assessed using statistical modelling. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been obtained from the hospital research ethics committee. Eligible doctors will be provided with written information sheets and written consent will be obtained if they agree to participate. Doctor details and MRNs will be kept separate from the data on prescribing errors, and will not appear in the final data set for analysis. Study results will be disseminated in publications and feedback to the ED. PMID:26463224

Identifying the Machine Translation Error Types with the Greatest Impact on Post-editing Effort

PubMed Central

Daems, Joke; Vandepitte, Sonia; Hartsuiker, Robert J.; Macken, Lieve

2017-01-01

Translation Environment Tools make translators’ work easier by providing them with term lists, translation memories and machine translation output. Ideally, such tools automatically predict whether it is more effortful to post-edit than to translate from scratch, and determine whether or not to provide translators with machine translation output. Current machine translation quality estimation systems heavily rely on automatic metrics, even though they do not accurately capture actual post-editing effort. In addition, these systems do not take translator experience into account, even though novices’ translation processes are different from those of professional translators. In this paper, we report on the impact of machine translation errors on various types of post-editing effort indicators, for professional translators as well as student translators. We compare the impact of MT quality on a product effort indicator (HTER) with that on various process effort indicators. The translation and post-editing process of student translators and professional translators was logged with a combination of keystroke logging and eye-tracking, and the MT output was analyzed with a fine-grained translation quality assessment approach. We find that most post-editing effort indicators (product as well as process) are influenced by machine translation quality, but that different error types affect different post-editing effort indicators, confirming that a more fine-grained MT quality analysis is needed to correctly estimate actual post-editing effort. Coherence, meaning shifts, and structural issues are shown to be good indicators of post-editing effort. The additional impact of experience on these interactions between MT quality and post-editing effort is smaller than expected. PMID:28824482

Identifying the Machine Translation Error Types with the Greatest Impact on Post-editing Effort.

PubMed

Daems, Joke; Vandepitte, Sonia; Hartsuiker, Robert J; Macken, Lieve

2017-01-01

Translation Environment Tools make translators' work easier by providing them with term lists, translation memories and machine translation output. Ideally, such tools automatically predict whether it is more effortful to post-edit than to translate from scratch, and determine whether or not to provide translators with machine translation output. Current machine translation quality estimation systems heavily rely on automatic metrics, even though they do not accurately capture actual post-editing effort. In addition, these systems do not take translator experience into account, even though novices' translation processes are different from those of professional translators. In this paper, we report on the impact of machine translation errors on various types of post-editing effort indicators, for professional translators as well as student translators. We compare the impact of MT quality on a product effort indicator (HTER) with that on various process effort indicators. The translation and post-editing process of student translators and professional translators was logged with a combination of keystroke logging and eye-tracking, and the MT output was analyzed with a fine-grained translation quality assessment approach. We find that most post-editing effort indicators (product as well as process) are influenced by machine translation quality, but that different error types affect different post-editing effort indicators, confirming that a more fine-grained MT quality analysis is needed to correctly estimate actual post-editing effort. Coherence, meaning shifts, and structural issues are shown to be good indicators of post-editing effort. The additional impact of experience on these interactions between MT quality and post-editing effort is smaller than expected.

A non-linear mathematical model for dynamic analysis of spur gears including shaft and bearing dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ozguven, H. Nevzat

1991-01-01

A six-degree-of-freedom nonlinear semi-definite model with time varying mesh stiffness has been developed for the dynamic analysis of spur gears. The model includes a spur gear pair, two shafts, two inertias representing load and prime mover, and bearings. As the shaft and bearing dynamics have also been considered in the model, the effect of lateral-torsional vibration coupling on the dynamics of gears can be studied. In the nonlinear model developed several factors such as time varying mesh stiffness and damping, separation of teeth, backlash, single- and double-sided impacts, various gear errors and profile modifications have been considered. The dynamic response to internal excitation has been calculated by using the 'static transmission error method' developed. The software prepared (DYTEM) employs the digital simulation technique for the solution, and is capable of calculating dynamic tooth and mesh forces, dynamic factors for pinion and gear, dynamic transmission error, dynamic bearing forces and torsions of shafts. Numerical examples are given in order to demonstrate the effect of shaft and bearing dynamics on gear dynamics.

Improvement and comparison of likelihood functions for model calibration and parameter uncertainty analysis within a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim

2014-11-01

In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.

A Medication Safety Model: A Case Study in Thai Hospital

PubMed Central

Rattanarojsakul, Phichai; Thawesaengskulthai, Natcha

2013-01-01

Reaching zero defects is vital in medication service. Medication error can be reduced if the causes are recognized. The purpose of this study is to search for a conceptual framework of the causes of medication error in Thailand and to examine relationship between these factors and its importance. The study was carried out upon an in-depth case study and survey of hospital personals who were involved in the drug use process. The structured survey was based on Emergency Care Research Institute (ECRI) (2008) questionnaires focusing on the important factors that affect the medication safety. Additional questionnaires included content to the context of Thailand's private hospital, validated by five-hospital qualified experts. By correlation Pearson analysis, the result revealed 14 important factors showing a linear relationship with drug administration error except the medication reconciliation. By independent sample t-test, the administration error in the hospital was significantly related to external impact. The multiple regression analysis of the detail of medication administration also indicated the patient identification before administration of medication, detection of the risk of medication adverse effects and assurance of medication administration at the right time, dosage and route were statistically significant at 0.05 level. The major implication of the study is to propose a medication safety model in a Thai private hospital. PMID:23985110

A medication safety model: a case study in Thai hospital.

PubMed

Rattanarojsakul, Phichai; Thawesaengskulthai, Natcha

2013-06-12

Reaching zero defects is vital in medication service. Medication error can be reduced if the causes are recognized. The purpose of this study is to search for a conceptual framework of the causes of medication error in Thailand and to examine relationship between these factors and its importance. The study was carried out upon an in-depth case study and survey of hospital personals who were involved in the drug use process. The structured survey was based on Emergency Care Research Institute (ECRI) (2008) questionnaires focusing on the important factors that affect the medication safety. Additional questionnaires included content to the context of Thailand's private hospital, validated by five-hospital qualified experts. By correlation Pearson analysis, the result revealed 14 important factors showing a linear relationship with drug administration error except the medication reconciliation. By independent sample t-test, the administration error in the hospital was significantly related to external impact. The multiple regression analysis of the detail of medication administration also indicated the patient identification before administration of medication, detection of the risk of medication adverse effects and assurance of medication administration at the right time, dosage and route were statistically significant at 0.05 level. The major implication of the study is to propose a medication safety model in a Thai private hospital.

Better P-curves: Making P-curve analysis more robust to errors, fraud, and ambitious P-hacking, a Reply to Ulrich and Miller (2015).

PubMed

Simonsohn, Uri; Simmons, Joseph P; Nelson, Leif D

2015-12-01

When studies examine true effects, they generate right-skewed p-curves, distributions of statistically significant results with more low (.01 s) than high (.04 s) p values. What else can cause a right-skewed p-curve? First, we consider the possibility that researchers report only the smallest significant p value (as conjectured by Ulrich & Miller, 2015), concluding that it is a very uncommon problem. We then consider more common problems, including (a) p-curvers selecting the wrong p values, (b) fake data, (c) honest errors, and (d) ambitiously p-hacked (beyond p < .05) results. We evaluate the impact of these common problems on the validity of p-curve analysis, and provide practical solutions that substantially increase its robustness. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Characterization of identification errors and uses in localization of poor modal correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Guillaume; Balmes, Etienne; Chancelier, Thierry

2017-05-01

While modal identification is a mature subject, very few studies address the characterization of errors associated with components of a mode shape. This is particularly important in test/analysis correlation procedures, where the Modal Assurance Criterion is used to pair modes and to localize at which sensors discrepancies occur. Poor correlation is usually attributed to modeling errors, but clearly identification errors also occur. In particular with 3D Scanning Laser Doppler Vibrometer measurement, many transfer functions are measured. As a result individual validation of each measurement cannot be performed manually in a reasonable time frame and a notable fraction of measurements is expected to be fairly noisy leading to poor identification of the associated mode shape components. The paper first addresses measurements and introduces multiple criteria. The error measures the difference between test and synthesized transfer functions around each resonance and can be used to localize poorly identified modal components. For intermediate error values, diagnostic of the origin of the error is needed. The level evaluates the transfer function amplitude in the vicinity of a given mode and can be used to eliminate sensors with low responses. A Noise Over Signal indicator, product of error and level, is then shown to be relevant to detect poorly excited modes and errors due to modal property shifts between test batches. Finally, a contribution is introduced to evaluate the visibility of a mode in each transfer. Using tests on a drum brake component, these indicators are shown to provide relevant insight into the quality of measurements. In a second part, test/analysis correlation is addressed with a focus on the localization of sources of poor mode shape correlation. The MACCo algorithm, which sorts sensors by the impact of their removal on a MAC computation, is shown to be particularly relevant. Combined with the error it avoids keeping erroneous modal components. Applied after removal of poor modal components, it provides spatial maps of poor correlation, which help localizing mode shape correlation errors and thus prepare the selection of model changes in updating procedures.

TH-B-BRC-01: How to Identify and Resolve Potential Clinical Errors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Das, I.

2016-06-15

Radiation treatment consists of a chain of events influenced by the quality of machine operation, beam data commissioning, machine calibration, patient specific data, simulation, treatment planning, imaging and treatment delivery. There is always a chance that the clinical medical physicist may make or fail to detect an error in one of the events that may impact on the patient’s treatment. In the clinical scenario, errors may be systematic and, without peer review, may have a low detectability because they are not part of routine QA procedures. During treatment, there might be errors on machine that needs attention. External reviews ofmore » some of the treatment delivery components by independent reviewers, like IROC, can detect errors, but may not be timely. The goal of this session is to help junior clinical physicists identify potential errors as well as the approach of quality assurance to perform a root cause analysis to find and eliminate an error and to continually monitor for errors. A compilation of potential errors will be presented by examples of the thought process required to spot the error and determine the root cause. Examples may include unusual machine operation, erratic electrometer reading, consistent lower electron output, variation in photon output, body parts inadvertently left in beam, unusual treatment plan, poor normalization, hot spots etc. Awareness of the possibility and detection of error in any link of the treatment process chain will help improve the safe and accurate delivery of radiation to patients. Four experts will discuss how to identify errors in four areas of clinical treatment. D. Followill, NIH grant CA 180803.« less

Accuracy of measurement in electrically evoked compound action potentials.

PubMed

Hey, Matthias; Müller-Deile, Joachim

2015-01-15

Electrically evoked compound action potentials (ECAP) in cochlear implant (CI) patients are characterized by the amplitude of the N1P1 complex. The measurement of evoked potentials yields a combination of the measured signal with various noise components but for ECAP procedures performed in the clinical routine, only the averaged curve is accessible. To date no detailed analysis of error dimension has been published. The aim of this study was to determine the error of the N1P1 amplitude and to determine the factors that impact the outcome. Measurements were performed on 32 CI patients with either CI24RE (CA) or CI512 implants using the Software Custom Sound EP (Cochlear). N1P1 error approximation of non-averaged raw data consisting of recorded single-sweeps was compared to methods of error approximation based on mean curves. The error approximation of the N1P1 amplitude using averaged data showed comparable results to single-point error estimation. The error of the N1P1 amplitude depends on the number of averaging steps and amplification; in contrast, the error of the N1P1 amplitude is not dependent on the stimulus intensity. Single-point error showed smaller N1P1 error and better coincidence with 1/√(N) function (N is the number of measured sweeps) compared to the known maximum-minimum criterion. Evaluation of N1P1 amplitude should be accompanied by indication of its error. The retrospective approximation of this measurement error from the averaged data available in clinically used software is possible and best done utilizing the D-trace in forward masking artefact reduction mode (no stimulation applied and recording contains only the switch-on-artefact). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of transport and modelling errors on the estimation of methane sources and sinks by inverse modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Locatelli, Robin; Bousquet, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric

2013-04-01

Since the nineties, inverse modelling by assimilating atmospheric measurements into a chemical transport model (CTM) has been used to derive sources and sinks of atmospheric trace gases. More recently, the high global warming potential of methane (CH4) and unexplained variations of its atmospheric mixing ratio caught the attention of several research groups. Indeed, the diversity and the variability of methane sources induce high uncertainty on the present and the future evolution of CH4 budget. With the increase of available measurement data to constrain inversions (satellite data, high frequency surface and tall tower observations, FTIR spectrometry,...), the main limiting factor is about to become the representation of atmospheric transport in CTMs. Indeed, errors in transport modelling directly converts into flux changes when assuming perfect transport in atmospheric inversions. Hence, we propose an inter-model comparison in order to quantify the impact of transport and modelling errors on the CH4 fluxes estimated into a variational inversion framework. Several inversion experiments are conducted using the same set-up (prior emissions, measurement and prior errors, OH field, initial conditions) of the variational system PYVAR, developed at LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, France). Nine different models (ACTM, IFS, IMPACT, IMPACT1x1, MOZART, PCTM, TM5, TM51x1 and TOMCAT) used in TRANSCOM-CH4 experiment (Patra el al, 2011) provide synthetic measurements data at up to 280 surface sites to constrain the inversions performed using the PYVAR system. Only the CTM (and the meteorological drivers which drive them) used to create the pseudo-observations vary among inversions. Consequently, the comparisons of the nine inverted methane fluxes obtained for 2005 give a good order of magnitude of the impact of transport and modelling errors on the estimated fluxes with current and future networks. It is shown that transport and modelling errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 TgCH4 per year at global scale, representing 5% of the total methane emissions for 2005. At continental scale, transport and modelling errors have bigger impacts in proportion to the area of the regions, ranging from 36 TgCH4 in North America to 7 TgCH4 in Boreal Eurasian, with a percentage range from 23% to 48%. Thus, contribution of transport and modelling errors to the mismatch between measurements and simulated methane concentrations is large considering the present questions on the methane budget. Moreover, diagnostics of statistics errors included in our inversions have been computed. It shows that errors contained in measurement errors covariance matrix are under-estimated in current inversions, suggesting to include more properly transport and modelling errors in future inversions.

Impact of random pointing and tracking errors on the design of coherent and incoherent optical intersatellite communication links

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Chien-Chung; Gardner, Chester S.

1989-01-01

Given the rms transmitter pointing error and the desired probability of bit error (PBE), it can be shown that an optimal transmitter antenna gain exists which minimizes the required transmitter power. Given the rms local oscillator tracking error, an optimum receiver antenna gain can be found which optimizes the receiver performance. The impact of pointing and tracking errors on the design of direct-detection pulse-position modulation (PPM) and heterodyne noncoherent frequency-shift keying (NCFSK) systems are then analyzed in terms of constraints on the antenna size and the power penalty incurred. It is shown that in the limit of large spatial tracking errors, the advantage in receiver sensitivity for the heterodyne system is quickly offset by the smaller antenna gain and the higher power penalty due to tracking errors. In contrast, for systems with small spatial tracking errors, the heterodyne system is superior because of the higher receiver sensitivity.

Assessing the statistical significance of the achieved classification error of classifiers constructed using serum peptide profiles, and a prescription for random sampling repeated studies for massive high-throughput genomic and proteomic studies.

PubMed

Lyons-Weiler, James; Pelikan, Richard; Zeh, Herbert J; Whitcomb, David C; Malehorn, David E; Bigbee, William L; Hauskrecht, Milos

2005-01-01

Peptide profiles generated using SELDI/MALDI time of flight mass spectrometry provide a promising source of patient-specific information with high potential impact on the early detection and classification of cancer and other diseases. The new profiling technology comes, however, with numerous challenges and concerns. Particularly important are concerns of reproducibility of classification results and their significance. In this work we describe a computational validation framework, called PACE (Permutation-Achieved Classification Error), that lets us assess, for a given classification model, the significance of the Achieved Classification Error (ACE) on the profile data. The framework compares the performance statistic of the classifier on true data samples and checks if these are consistent with the behavior of the classifier on the same data with randomly reassigned class labels. A statistically significant ACE increases our belief that a discriminative signal was found in the data. The advantage of PACE analysis is that it can be easily combined with any classification model and is relatively easy to interpret. PACE analysis does not protect researchers against confounding in the experimental design, or other sources of systematic or random error. We use PACE analysis to assess significance of classification results we have achieved on a number of published data sets. The results show that many of these datasets indeed possess a signal that leads to a statistically significant ACE.

The Impact of Incident Disclosure Behaviors on Medical Malpractice Claims.

PubMed

Giraldo, Priscila; Sato, Luke; Castells, Xavier

2017-06-30

To provide preliminary estimates of incident disclosure behaviors on medical malpractice claims. We conducted a descriptive analysis of data on medical malpractice claims obtained from the Controlled Risk Insurance Company and Risk Management Foundation of Harvard Medical Institutions (Cambridge, Massachusetts) between 2012 and 2013 (n = 434). The characteristics of disclosure and apology after medical errors were analyzed. Of 434 medical malpractice claims, 4.6% (n = 20) medical errors had been disclosed to the patient at the time of the error, and 5.9% (n = 26) had been followed by disclosure and apology. The highest number of disclosed injuries occurred in 2011 (23.9%; n = 11) and 2012 (34.8%; n = 16). There was no incremental increase during the financial years studied (2012-2013). The mean age of informed patients was 52.96 years, 58.7 % of the patients were female, and 52.2% were inpatients. Of the disclosed errors, 26.1% led to an adverse reaction, and 17.4% were fatal. The cause of disclosed medical error was improper surgical performance in 17.4% (95% confidence interval, 6.4-28.4). Disclosed medical errors were classified as medium severity in 67.4%. No apology statement was issued in 54.5% of medical errors classified as high severity. At the health-care centers studied, when a claim followed a medical error, providers infrequently disclosed medical errors or apologized to the patient or relatives. Most of the medical errors followed by disclosure and apology were classified as being of high and medium severity. No changes were detected in the volume of lawsuits over time.

Identification and assessment of common errors in the admission process of patients in Isfahan Fertility and Infertility Center based on “failure modes and effects analysis”

PubMed Central

Dehghan, Ashraf; Abumasoudi, Rouhollah Sheikh; Ehsanpour, Soheila

2016-01-01

Background: Infertility and errors in the process of its treatment have a negative impact on infertile couples. The present study was aimed to identify and assess the common errors in the reception process by applying the approach of “failure modes and effects analysis” (FMEA). Materials and Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, the admission process of fertility and infertility center of Isfahan was selected for evaluation of its errors based on the team members’ decision. At first, the admission process was charted through observations and interviewing employees, holding multiple panels, and using FMEA worksheet, which has been used in many researches all over the world and also in Iran. Its validity was evaluated through content and face validity, and its reliability was evaluated through reviewing and confirmation of the obtained information by the FMEA team, and eventually possible errors, causes, and three indicators of severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection were determined and corrective actions were proposed. Data analysis was determined by the number of risk priority (RPN) which is calculated by multiplying the severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection. Results: Twenty-five errors with RPN ≥ 125 was detected through the admission process, in which six cases of error had high priority in terms of severity and occurrence probability and were identified as high-risk errors. Conclusions: The team-oriented method of FMEA could be useful for assessment of errors and also to reduce the occurrence probability of errors. PMID:28194208

Hydro morphodynamic modelling in Mediterranean storms: errors and uncertainties under sharp gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Arcilla, A.; Gracia, V.; García, M.

2014-02-01

This paper deals with the limits in hydrodynamic and morphodynamic predictions for semi-enclosed coastal domains subject to sharp gradients (in bathymetry, topography, sediment transport and coastal damages). It starts with an overview of wave prediction limits (based on satellite images) in a restricted domain such as is the Mediterranean basin, followed by an in-depth analysis of the Catalan coast, one of the land boundaries of such a domain. The morphodynamic modeling for such gradient regions is next illustrated with the simulation of the largest recorded storm in the Catalan coast, whose morphological impact is a key element of the storm impact. The driving wave and surge conditions produce a morphodynamic response that is validated against the pre and post storm beach state, recovered from two LIDAR images. The quality of the fit is discussed in terms of the physical processes and the suitability of the employed modeling equations. Some remarks about the role of the numerical discretization and boundary conditions are also included in the analysis. From here an assessment of errors and uncertainties is presented, with the aim of establishing the prediction limits for coastal engineering flooding and erosion analyses.

The Impact of Atmospheric Modeling Errors on GRACE Estimates of Mass Loss in Greenland and Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardy, Ryan A.; Nerem, R. Steven; Wiese, David N.

2017-12-01

Systematic errors in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly mass estimates over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets can originate from low-frequency biases in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Operational Analysis model, the atmospheric component of the Atmospheric and Ocean Dealising Level-1B (AOD1B) product used to forward model atmospheric and ocean gravity signals in GRACE processing. These biases are revealed in differences in surface pressure between the ECMWF Operational Analysis model, state-of-the-art reanalyses, and in situ surface pressure measurements. While some of these errors are attributable to well-understood discrete model changes and have published corrections, we examine errors these corrections do not address. We compare multiple models and in situ data in Antarctica and Greenland to determine which models have the most skill relative to monthly averages of the dealiasing model. We also evaluate linear combinations of these models and synthetic pressure fields generated from direct interpolation of pressure observations. These models consistently reveal drifts in the dealiasing model that cause the acceleration of Antarctica's mass loss between April 2002 and August 2016 to be underestimated by approximately 4 Gt yr-2. We find similar results after attempting to solve the inverse problem, recovering pressure biases directly from the GRACE Jet Propulsion Laboratory RL05.1 M mascon solutions. Over Greenland, we find a 2 Gt yr-1 bias in mass trend. While our analysis focuses on errors in Release 05 of AOD1B, we also evaluate the new AOD1B RL06 product. We find that this new product mitigates some of the aforementioned biases.

Use of localized performance-based functions for the specification and correction of hybrid imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisson, Jerold B.; Mounts, Darryl I.; Fehniger, Michael J.

1992-08-01

Localized wavefront performance analysis (LWPA) is a system that allows the full utilization of the system optical transfer function (OTF) for the specification and acceptance of hybrid imaging systems. We show that LWPA dictates the correction of wavefront errors with the greatest impact on critical imaging spatial frequencies. This is accomplished by the generation of an imaging performance map-analogous to a map of the optic pupil error-using a local OTF. The resulting performance map a function of transfer function spatial frequency is directly relatable to the primary viewing condition of the end-user. In addition to optimizing quality for the viewer it will be seen that the system has the potential for an improved matching of the optical and electronic bandpass of the imager and for the development of more realistic acceptance specifications. 1. LOCAL WAVEFRONT PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS The LWPA system generates a local optical quality factor (LOQF) in the form of a map analogous to that used for the presentation and evaluation of wavefront errors. In conjunction with the local phase transfer function (LPTF) it can be used for maximally efficient specification and correction of imaging system pupil errors. The LOQF and LPTF are respectively equivalent to the global modulation transfer function (MTF) and phase transfer function (PTF) parts of the OTF. The LPTF is related to difference of the average of the errors in separated regions of the pupil. Figure

Examining the Error of Mis-Specifying Nonlinear Confounding Effect With Application on Accelerometer-Measured Physical Activity.

PubMed

Lee, Paul H

2017-06-01

Some confounders are nonlinearly associated with dependent variables, but they are often adjusted using a linear term. The purpose of this study was to examine the error of mis-specifying the nonlinear confounding effect. We carried out a simulation study to investigate the effect of adjusting for a nonlinear confounder in the estimation of a causal relationship between the exposure and outcome in 3 ways: using a linear term, binning into 5 equal-size categories, or using a restricted cubic spline of the confounder. Continuous, binary, and survival outcomes were simulated. We examined the confounder across varying measurement error. In addition, we performed a real data analysis examining the 3 strategies to handle the nonlinear effects of accelerometer-measured physical activity in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2006 data. The mis-specification of a nonlinear confounder had little impact on causal effect estimation for continuous outcomes. For binary and survival outcomes, this mis-specification introduced bias, which could be eliminated using spline adjustment only when there is small measurement error of the confounder. Real data analysis showed that the associations between high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes and mortality adjusted for physical activity with restricted cubic spline were about 3% to 11% larger than their counterparts adjusted with a linear term. For continuous outcomes, confounders with nonlinear effects can be adjusting with a linear term. Spline adjustment should be used for binary and survival outcomes on confounders with small measurement error.

Nature of nursing errors and their contributing factors in intensive care units.

PubMed

Eltaybani, Sameh; Mohamed, Nadia; Abdelwareth, Mona

2018-04-27

Errors tend to be multifactorial and so learning from nurses' experiences with them would be a powerful tool toward promoting patient safety. To identify the nature of nursing errors and their contributing factors in intensive care units (ICUs). A semi-structured interview with 112 critical care nurses to elicit the reports about their encountered errors followed by a content analysis. A total of 300 errors were reported. Most of them (94·3%) were classified in more than one error category, e.g. 'lack of intervention', 'lack of attentiveness' and 'documentation errors': these were the most frequently involved error categories. Approximately 40% of reported errors contributed to significant harm or death of the involved patients, with system-related factors being involved in 84·3% of them. More errors occur during the evening shift than the night and morning shifts (42·7% versus 28·7% and 16·7%, respectively). There is a statistically significant relation (p ≤ 0·001) between error disclosure to a nursing supervisor and its impact on the patient. Nurses are more likely to report their errors when they feel safe and when the reporting system is not burdensome, although an internationally standardized language to define and analyse nursing errors is needed. Improving the health care system, particularly the managerial and environmental aspects, might reduce nursing errors in ICUs in terms of their incidence and seriousness. Targeting error-liable times in the ICU, such as mid-evening and mid-night shifts, along with improved supervision and adequate staff reallocation, might tackle the incidence and seriousness of nursing errors. Development of individualized nursing interventions for patients with low health literacy and patients in isolation might create more meaningful dialogue for ICU health care safety. © 2018 British Association of Critical Care Nurses.

Fundamental Bounds for Sequence Reconstruction from Nanopore Sequencers.

PubMed

Magner, Abram; Duda, Jarosław; Szpankowski, Wojciech; Grama, Ananth

2016-06-01

Nanopore sequencers are emerging as promising new platforms for high-throughput sequencing. As with other technologies, sequencer errors pose a major challenge for their effective use. In this paper, we present a novel information theoretic analysis of the impact of insertion-deletion (indel) errors in nanopore sequencers. In particular, we consider the following problems: (i) for given indel error characteristics and rate, what is the probability of accurate reconstruction as a function of sequence length; (ii) using replicated extrusion (the process of passing a DNA strand through the nanopore), what is the number of replicas needed to accurately reconstruct the true sequence with high probability? Our results provide a number of important insights: (i) the probability of accurate reconstruction of a sequence from a single sample in the presence of indel errors tends quickly (i.e., exponentially) to zero as the length of the sequence increases; and (ii) replicated extrusion is an effective technique for accurate reconstruction. We show that for typical distributions of indel errors, the required number of replicas is a slow function (polylogarithmic) of sequence length - implying that through replicated extrusion, we can sequence large reads using nanopore sequencers. Moreover, we show that in certain cases, the required number of replicas can be related to information-theoretic parameters of the indel error distributions.

Disclosure of Medical Errors: What Factors Influence How Patients Respond?

PubMed Central

Mazor, Kathleen M; Reed, George W; Yood, Robert A; Fischer, Melissa A; Baril, Joann; Gurwitz, Jerry H

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Disclosure of medical errors is encouraged, but research on how patients respond to specific practices is limited. OBJECTIVE This study sought to determine whether full disclosure, an existing positive physician-patient relationship, an offer to waive associated costs, and the severity of the clinical outcome influenced patients' responses to medical errors. PARTICIPANTS Four hundred and seven health plan members participated in a randomized experiment in which they viewed video depictions of medical error and disclosure. DESIGN Subjects were randomly assigned to experimental condition. Conditions varied in type of medication error, level of disclosure, reference to a prior positive physician-patient relationship, an offer to waive costs, and clinical outcome. MEASURES Self-reported likelihood of changing physicians and of seeking legal advice; satisfaction, trust, and emotional response. RESULTS Nondisclosure increased the likelihood of changing physicians, and reduced satisfaction and trust in both error conditions. Nondisclosure increased the likelihood of seeking legal advice and was associated with a more negative emotional response in the missed allergy error condition, but did not have a statistically significant impact on seeking legal advice or emotional response in the monitoring error condition. Neither the existence of a positive relationship nor an offer to waive costs had a statistically significant impact. CONCLUSIONS This study provides evidence that full disclosure is likely to have a positive effect or no effect on how patients respond to medical errors. The clinical outcome also influences patients' responses. The impact of an existing positive physician-patient relationship, or of waiving costs associated with the error remains uncertain. PMID:16808770

Impact of geophysical model error for recovering temporal gravity field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Hao; Luo, Zhicai; Wu, Yihao; Li, Qiong; Xu, Chuang

2016-07-01

The impact of geophysical model error on recovered temporal gravity field models with both real and simulated GRACE observations is assessed in this paper. With real GRACE observations, we build four temporal gravity field models, i.e., HUST08a, HUST11a, HUST04 and HUST05. HUST08a and HUST11a are derived from different ocean tide models (EOT08a and EOT11a), while HUST04 and HUST05 are derived from different non-tidal models (AOD RL04 and AOD RL05). The statistical result shows that the discrepancies of the annual mass variability amplitudes in six river basins between HUST08a and HUST11a models, HUST04 and HUST05 models are all smaller than 1 cm, which demonstrates that geophysical model error slightly affects the current GRACE solutions. The impact of geophysical model error for future missions with more accurate satellite ranging is also assessed by simulation. The simulation results indicate that for current mission with range rate accuracy of 2.5 × 10- 7 m/s, observation error is the main reason for stripe error. However, when the range rate accuracy improves to 5.0 × 10- 8 m/s in the future mission, geophysical model error will be the main source for stripe error, which will limit the accuracy and spatial resolution of temporal gravity model. Therefore, observation error should be the primary error source taken into account at current range rate accuracy level, while more attention should be paid to improving the accuracy of background geophysical models for the future mission.

Professional liability insurance and medical error disclosure.

PubMed

McLennan, Stuart; Shaw, David; Leu, Agnes; Elger, Bernice

2015-01-01

To examine medicolegal stakeholders' views about the impact of professional liability insurance in Switzerland on medical error disclosure. Purposive sample of 23 key medicolegal stakeholders in Switzerland from a range of fields between October 2012 and February 2013. Data were collected via individual, face-to-face interviews using a researcher-developed semi-structured interview guide. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using conventional content analysis. Participants, particularly those with a legal or quality background, reported that concerns relating to professional liability insurance often inhibited communication with patients after a medical error. Healthcare providers were reported to be particularly concerned about losing their liability insurance cover for apologising to harmed patients. It was reported that the attempt to limit the exchange of information and communication could lead to a conflict with patient rights law. Participants reported that hospitals could, and in some case are, moving towards self-insurance approaches, which could increase flexibility regarding error communication The reported current practice of at least some liability insurance companies in Switzerland of inhibiting communication with harmed patients after an error is concerning and requires further investigation. With a new ethic of transparency regarding medical errors now prevailing internationally, this approach is increasingly being perceived to be misguided. A move away from hospitals relying solely on liability insurance may allow greater transparency after errors. Legalisation preventing the loss of liability insurance coverage for apologising to harmed patients should also be considered.

Experimental results of 5-Gbps free-space coherent optical communications with adaptive optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mo; Liu, Chao; Rui, Daoman; Xian, Hao

2018-07-01

In a free-space optical communication system with fiber optical components, the received signal beam must be coupled into a single-mode fiber (SMF) before being amplified and detected. The impacts analysis of tracking errors and wavefront distortion on SMF coupling show that under the condition of relatively strong turbulence, only the tracking errors compensation is not enough, and turbulence wavefront aberration is required to be corrected. Based on our previous study and design of SMF coupling system with a 137-element continuous surface deformable mirror AO unit, we perform an experiment of a 5-Gbps Free-space Coherent Optical Communication (FSCOC) system, in which the eye pattern and Bit-error Rate (BER) are displayed. The comparative results are shown that the influence of the atmospheric is fatal in FSCOC systems. The BER of coherent communication is under 10-6 with AO compensation, which drops significantly compared with the BER without AO correction.

Coil motion effects in watt balances: a theoretical check

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shisong; Schlamminger, Stephan; Haddad, Darine; Seifert, Frank; Chao, Leon; Pratt, Jon R.

2016-04-01

A watt balance is a precision apparatus for the measurement of the Planck constant that has been proposed as a primary method for realizing the unit of mass in a revised International System of Units. In contrast to an ampere balance, which was historically used to realize the unit of current in terms of the kilogram, the watt balance relates electrical and mechanical units through a virtual power measurement and has far greater precision. However, because the virtual power measurement requires the execution of a prescribed motion of a coil in a fixed magnetic field, systematic errors introduced by horizontal and rotational deviations of the coil from its prescribed path will compromise the accuracy. We model these potential errors using an analysis that accounts for the fringing field in the magnet, creating a framework for assessing the impact of this class of errors on the uncertainty of watt balance results.

Emmetropisation and the aetiology of refractive errors

PubMed Central

Flitcroft, D I

2014-01-01

The distribution of human refractive errors displays features that are not commonly seen in other biological variables. Compared with the more typical Gaussian distribution, adult refraction within a population typically has a negative skew and increased kurtosis (ie is leptokurtotic). This distribution arises from two apparently conflicting tendencies, first, the existence of a mechanism to control eye growth during infancy so as to bring refraction towards emmetropia/low hyperopia (ie emmetropisation) and second, the tendency of many human populations to develop myopia during later childhood and into adulthood. The distribution of refraction therefore changes significantly with age. Analysis of the processes involved in shaping refractive development allows for the creation of a life course model of refractive development. Monte Carlo simulations based on such a model can recreate the variation of refractive distributions seen from birth to adulthood and the impact of increasing myopia prevalence on refractive error distributions in Asia. PMID:24406411

The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

1986-01-01

The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

The Combined Effects of Measurement Error and Omitting Confounders in the Single-Mediator Model

PubMed Central

Fritz, Matthew S.; Kenny, David A.; MacKinnon, David P.

2016-01-01

Mediation analysis requires a number of strong assumptions be met in order to make valid causal inferences. Failing to account for violations of these assumptions, such as not modeling measurement error or omitting a common cause of the effects in the model, can bias the parameter estimates of the mediated effect. When the independent variable is perfectly reliable, for example when participants are randomly assigned to levels of treatment, measurement error in the mediator tends to underestimate the mediated effect, while the omission of a confounding variable of the mediator to outcome relation tends to overestimate the mediated effect. Violations of these two assumptions often co-occur, however, in which case the mediated effect could be overestimated, underestimated, or even, in very rare circumstances, unbiased. In order to explore the combined effect of measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model, the impact of each violation on the single-mediator model is first examined individually. Then the combined effect of having measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model is discussed. Throughout, an empirical example is provided to illustrate the effect of violating these assumptions on the mediated effect. PMID:27739903

Factors associated with reporting of medication errors by Israeli nurses.

PubMed

Kagan, Ilya; Barnoy, Sivia

2008-01-01

This study investigated medication error reporting among Israeli nurses, the relationship between nurses' personal views about error reporting, and the impact of the safety culture of the ward and hospital on this reporting. Nurses (n = 201) completed a questionnaire related to different aspects of error reporting (frequency, organizational norms of dealing with errors, and personal views on reporting). The higher the error frequency, the more errors went unreported. If the ward nurse manager corrected errors on the ward, error self-reporting decreased significantly. Ward nurse managers have to provide good role models.

Assessing the Impact of Pre-gpm Microwave Precipitation Observations in the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambon, Philippe; Zhang, Sara Q.; Hou, Arthur Y.; Zupanski, Milija; Cheung, Samson

2013-01-01

The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

Circular Probable Error for Circular and Noncircular Gaussian Impacts

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

1M simulated impacts ph(k)=mean(imp(:,1).^2+imp(:,2).^2<=CEP^2); % hit frequency on CEP end phit (j)=mean(ph...avg 100 hit frequencies to “incr n” end % GRAPHICS plot(i, phit ,’r-’); % error exponent versus Ph estimate

The impacts of observing flawed and flawless demonstrations on clinical skill learning.

PubMed

Domuracki, Kurt; Wong, Arthur; Olivieri, Lori; Grierson, Lawrence E M

2015-02-01

Clinical skills expertise can be advanced through accessible and cost-effective video-based observational practice activities. Previous findings suggest that the observation of performances of skills that include flaws can be beneficial to trainees. Observing the scope of variability within a skilled movement allows learners to develop strategies to manage the potential for and consequences associated with errors. This study tests this observational learning approach on the development of the skills of central line insertion (CLI). Medical trainees with no CLI experience (n = 39) were randomised to three observational practice groups: a group which viewed and assessed videos of an expert performing a CLI without any errors (F); a group which viewed and assessed videos that contained a mix of flawless and errorful performances (E), and a group which viewed the same videos as the E group but were also given information concerning the correctness of their assessments (FA). All participants interacted with their observational videos each day for 4 days. Following this period, participants returned to the laboratory and performed a simulation-based insertion, which was assessed using a standard checklist and a global rating scale for the skill. These ratings served as the dependent measures for analysis. The checklist analysis revealed no differences between observational learning groups (grand mean ± standard error: [20.3 ± 0.7]/25). However, the global rating analysis revealed a main effect of group (d.f.2,36 = 4.51, p = 0.018), which describes better CLI performance in the FA group, compared with the F and E groups. Observational practice that includes errors improves the global performance aspects of clinical skill learning as long as learners are given confirmation that what they are observing is errorful. These findings provide a refined perspective on the optimal organisation of skill education programmes that combine physical and observational practice activities. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Indoor-to-outdoor particle concentration ratio model for human exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Young; Ryu, Sung Hee; Lee, Gwangjae; Bae, Gwi-Nam

2016-02-01

This study presents an indoor-to-outdoor particle concentration ratio (IOR) model for improved estimates of indoor exposure levels. This model is useful in epidemiological studies with large population, because sampling indoor pollutants in all participants' house is often necessary but impractical. As a part of a study examining the association between air pollutants and atopic dermatitis in children, 16 parents agreed to measure the indoor and outdoor PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations at their homes for 48 h. Correlation analysis and multi-step multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to develop the IOR model. Temperature and floor level were found to be powerful predictors of the IOR. Despite the simplicity of the model, it demonstrated high accuracy in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE). Especially for long-term IOR estimations, the RMSE was as low as 0.064 and 0.063 for PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. When using a prediction model in an epidemiological study, understanding the consequence of the modeling error and justifying the use of the model is very important. In the last section, this paper discussed the impact of the modeling error and developed a novel methodology to justify the use of the model.

An Introduction to SPEAR (Seismogram Picking Error from Analyst Review)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeiler, C. P.; Velasco, A. A.; Anderson, D.; Pingitore, N. E.

2008-12-01

A grassroots initiative began in February of 2008 at the University of Texas at El Paso to understand how seismologists measure earthquakes. The Seismogram Picking Error from Analyst Review (SPEAR) project is designed to be a forum where seismologists can propose, discuss and experimentally test theories on proper procedures to identify and measure seismic phases. We outline the history of seismogram analysis and explore areas of seismogram analysis that still need to be defined. The main concern for SPEAR, at this time, is the impact of picking errors produced by merging earthquake catalogs. Our initial effort has been to establish a common data set for seismologists to pick. The preliminary studies from this data set have shown that significant bias between authors of catalogs may exist. We provide techniques to ensure that these biases can be identified and correctly managed to provide accurate mergers of earthquake measurements. The overall goal of SPEAR is to provide a repository of information to aid seismologists in comparing and sharing measurements. We want to document in the repository and explore all aspects of the picking process, from the basics of learning how to read a seismogram to complex transformations and enhancements of signals. Your participation in SPEAR will aid the seismological community to close the knowledge gaps that exist in seismogram analysis.

Curation of microarray oligonucleotides and corresponding ESTs/cDNAs used for gene expression analysis in zebra finches.

PubMed

Lovell, Peter V; Huizinga, Nicole A; Getachew, Abel; Mees, Brianna; Friedrich, Samantha R; Wirthlin, Morgan; Mello, Claudio V

2018-05-18

Zebra finches are a major model organism for investigating mechanisms of vocal learning, a trait that enables spoken language in humans. The development of cDNA collections with expressed sequence tags (ESTs) and microarrays has allowed for extensive molecular characterizations of circuitry underlying vocal learning and production. However, poor database curation can lead to errors in transcriptome and bioinformatics analyses, limiting the impact of these resources. Here we used genomic alignments and synteny analysis for orthology verification to curate and reannotate ~ 35% of the oligonucleotides and corresponding ESTs/cDNAs that make-up Agilent microarrays for gene expression analysis in finches. We found that: (1) 5475 out of 43,084 oligos (a) failed to align to the zebra finch genome, (b) aligned to multiple loci, or (c) aligned to Chr_un only, and thus need to be flagged until a better genome assembly is available, or (d) reflect cloning artifacts; (2) Out of 9635 valid oligos examined further, 3120 were incorrectly named, including 1533 with no known orthologs; and (3) 2635 oligos required name update. The resulting curated dataset provides a reference for correcting gene identification errors in previous finch microarrays studies, and avoiding such errors in future studies.

Experimental quantum verification in the presence of temporally correlated noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavadia, S.; Edmunds, C. L.; Hempel, C.; Ball, H.; Roy, F.; Stace, T. M.; Biercuk, M. J.

2018-02-01

Growth in the capabilities of quantum information hardware mandates access to techniques for performance verification that function under realistic laboratory conditions. Here we experimentally characterise the impact of common temporally correlated noise processes on both randomised benchmarking (RB) and gate-set tomography (GST). Our analysis highlights the role of sequence structure in enhancing or suppressing the sensitivity of quantum verification protocols to either slowly or rapidly varying noise, which we treat in the limiting cases of quasi-DC miscalibration and white noise power spectra. We perform experiments with a single trapped 171Yb+ ion-qubit and inject engineered noise (" separators="∝σ^ z ) to probe protocol performance. Experiments on RB validate predictions that measured fidelities over sequences are described by a gamma distribution varying between approximately Gaussian, and a broad, highly skewed distribution for rapidly and slowly varying noise, respectively. Similarly we find a strong gate set dependence of default experimental GST procedures in the presence of correlated errors, leading to significant deviations between estimated and calculated diamond distances in the presence of correlated σ^ z errors. Numerical simulations demonstrate that expansion of the gate set to include negative rotations can suppress these discrepancies and increase reported diamond distances by orders of magnitude for the same error processes. Similar effects do not occur for correlated σ^ x or σ^ y errors or depolarising noise processes, highlighting the impact of the critical interplay of selected gate set and the gauge optimisation process on the meaning of the reported diamond norm in correlated noise environments.

Cluster mislocation in kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calafut, Victoria; Bean, Rachel; Yu, Byeonghee

2017-12-01

We investigate the impact of a variety of analysis assumptions that influence cluster identification and location on the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) pairwise momentum signal and covariance estimation. Photometric and spectroscopic galaxy tracers from SDSS, WISE, and DECaLs, spanning redshifts 0.05

The impact of safety organizing, trusted leadership, and care pathways on reported medication errors in hospital nursing units.

PubMed

Vogus, Timothy J; Sutcliffe, Kathleen M

2011-01-01

Prior research has found that safety organizing behaviors of registered nurses (RNs) positively impact patient safety. However, little research exists on the joint benefits of safety organizing and other contextual factors that help foster safety. Although we know that organizational practices often have more powerful effects when combined with other mutually reinforcing practices, little research exists on the joint benefits of safety organizing and other contextual factors believed to foster safety. Specifically, we examined the benefits of bundling safety organizing with leadership (trust in manager) and design (use of care pathways) factors on reported medication errors. A total of 1033 RNs and 78 nurse managers in 78 emergency, internal medicine, intensive care, and surgery nursing units in 10 acute-care hospitals in Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, and Ohio who completed questionnaires between December 2003 and June 2004. Cross-sectional analysis of medication errors reported to the hospital incident reporting system for the 6 months after the administration of the survey linked to survey data on safety organizing, trust in manager, use of care pathways, and RN characteristics and staffing. Multilevel Poisson regression analyses indicated that the benefits of safety organizing on reported medication errors were amplified when paired with high levels of trust in manager or the use of care pathways. Safety organizing plays a key role in improving patient safety on hospital nursing units especially when bundled with other organizational components of a safety supportive system.

Mismeasurement and the resonance of strong confounders: correlated errors.

PubMed

Marshall, J R; Hastrup, J L; Ross, J S

1999-07-01

Confounding in epidemiology, and the limits of standard methods of control for an imperfectly measured confounder, have been understood for some time. However, most treatments of this problem are based on the assumption that errors of measurement in confounding and confounded variables are independent. This paper considers the situation in which a strong risk factor (confounder) and an inconsequential but suspected risk factor (confounded) are each measured with errors that are correlated; the situation appears especially likely to occur in the field of nutritional epidemiology. Error correlation appears to add little to measurement error as a source of bias in estimating the impact of a strong risk factor: it can add to, diminish, or reverse the bias induced by measurement error in estimating the impact of the inconsequential risk factor. Correlation of measurement errors can add to the difficulty involved in evaluating structures in which confounding and measurement error are present. In its presence, observed correlations among risk factors can be greater than, less than, or even opposite to the true correlations. Interpretation of multivariate epidemiologic structures in which confounding is likely requires evaluation of measurement error structures, including correlations among measurement errors.

Technical Note: Introduction of variance component analysis to setup error analysis in radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matsuo, Yukinori, E-mail: ymatsuo@kuhp.kyoto-u.ac.

Purpose: The purpose of this technical note is to introduce variance component analysis to the estimation of systematic and random components in setup error of radiotherapy. Methods: Balanced data according to the one-factor random effect model were assumed. Results: Analysis-of-variance (ANOVA)-based computation was applied to estimate the values and their confidence intervals (CIs) for systematic and random errors and the population mean of setup errors. The conventional method overestimates systematic error, especially in hypofractionated settings. The CI for systematic error becomes much wider than that for random error. The ANOVA-based estimation can be extended to a multifactor model considering multiplemore » causes of setup errors (e.g., interpatient, interfraction, and intrafraction). Conclusions: Variance component analysis may lead to novel applications to setup error analysis in radiotherapy.« less

Impact of miscommunication in medical dispute cases in Japan.

PubMed

Aoki, Noriaki; Uda, Kenji; Ohta, Sachiko; Kiuchi, Takahiro; Fukui, Tsuguya

2008-10-01

Medical disputes between physicians and patients can occur in non-negligent circumstances and may even result in compensation. We reviewed medical dispute cases to investigate the impact of miscommunication, especially in non-negligent situations. Systematic review of medical dispute records was done to identify the presence of the adverse events, the type of medical error, preventability, the perception of miscommunication by patients and the amount of compensation. The study was performed in Kyoto, Japan. We analyzed 155 medical dispute cases. We compared (i) frequency of miscommunication cases between negligent and non-negligent cases, and (ii) proportions of positive compensation between non-miscommunication and miscommunication cases stratified according to the existence of negligence. Multivariate logistic analysis was conducted to assess the independent factors related to positive compensation. Approximately 40% of the medical disputes (59/155) did not involve medical error (i.e. non-negligent). In the non-negligent cases, 64.4% (38/59) involved miscommunication, whereas in dispute cases with errors, 21.9% (21/96) involved miscommunications. (P

Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis

PubMed Central

Gobiet, Andreas

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan‐European data sets and a set that combines eight very high‐resolution station‐based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post‐processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small‐scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate‐mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments. PMID:28111497

Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis.

PubMed

Prein, Andreas F; Gobiet, Andreas

2017-01-01

Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan-European data sets and a set that combines eight very high-resolution station-based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post-processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small-scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate-mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments.

Impact of the voluntary withdrawal of over-the-counter cough and cold medications on pediatric ingestions reported to poison centers†

PubMed Central

Klein-Schwartz, Wendy; Sorkin, John David; Doyon, Suzanne

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Purpose To assess the impact of a voluntary withdrawal of over-the-counter cough and cold medications (OTC CCMs) labeled for children under age 2 years on pediatric ingestions reported to the American Association of Poison Control Centers. Methods Trend analysis of OTC CCMs ingestions in children under the age 6 years resulting from therapeutic errors or unintentional poisonings for 27 months before (pre-) and 15 months after (post-) the October 2007 voluntary withdrawal was conducted. The rates and outcome severity were examined. Results The mean annual rate of therapeutic errors involving OTC CCMs post-withdrawal, in children less than 2-years of age, 45.2/100 000 (95%CI 30.7–66.6) was 54% of the rate pre-withdrawal, 83.8/100 000 (95%CI 67.6–104.0). The decrease was statistically significant p < 0.02. In this age group, there was no difference in the frequency of severe outcomes resulting from therapeutic errors post-withdrawal. There was no significant difference in unintentional poisoning rates post-withdrawal 82.1/100 000 (66.0–102.2) vs. pre-withdrawal 98.3/100 000 (84.4–114.3) (p < 0.21) in children less than 2-years of age. There were no significant reductions in rates of therapeutic errors and unintentional poisonings in children ages 2–5 years, who were not targeted by the withdrawal. Conclusions A significant decrease in annual rates of therapeutic errors in children under 2-years reported to Poison Centers followed the voluntary withdrawal of OTC CCMs for children under age 2-years. Concerns that withdrawal of pediatric medications would paradoxically increase poisonings from parents giving products intended for older age groups to young children are not supported. PMID:20533537

Cluster designs to assess the prevalence of acute malnutrition by lot quality assurance sampling: a validation study by computer simulation.

PubMed

Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello; Deitchler, Megan; Hedt, Bethany L; Egge, Kari; Valadez, Joseph J

2009-04-01

Traditional lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methods require simple random sampling to guarantee valid results. However, cluster sampling has been proposed to reduce the number of random starting points. This study uses simulations to examine the classification error of two such designs, a 67x3 (67 clusters of three observations) and a 33x6 (33 clusters of six observations) sampling scheme to assess the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM). Further, we explore the use of a 67x3 sequential sampling scheme for LQAS classification of GAM prevalence. Results indicate that, for independent clusters with moderate intracluster correlation for the GAM outcome, the three sampling designs maintain approximate validity for LQAS analysis. Sequential sampling can substantially reduce the average sample size that is required for data collection. The presence of intercluster correlation can impact dramatically the classification error that is associated with LQAS analysis.

Effect of Correlated Precision Errors on Uncertainty of a Subsonic Venturi Calibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudson, S. T.; Bordelon, W. J., Jr.; Coleman, H. W.

1996-01-01

An uncertainty analysis performed in conjunction with the calibration of a subsonic venturi for use in a turbine test facility produced some unanticipated results that may have a significant impact in a variety of test situations. Precision uncertainty estimates using the preferred propagation techniques in the applicable American National Standards Institute/American Society of Mechanical Engineers standards were an order of magnitude larger than precision uncertainty estimates calculated directly from a sample of results (discharge coefficient) obtained at the same experimental set point. The differences were attributable to the effect of correlated precision errors, which previously have been considered negligible. An analysis explaining this phenomenon is presented. The article is not meant to document the venturi calibration, but rather to give a real example of results where correlated precision terms are important. The significance of the correlated precision terms could apply to many test situations.

VLBI height corrections due to gravitational deformation of antenna structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarti, P.; Negusini, M.; Abbondanza, C.; Petrov, L.

2009-12-01

From an analysis of regional European VLBI data we evaluate the impact of a VLBI signal path correction model developed to account for gravitational deformations of the antenna structures. The model was derived from a combination of terrestrial surveying methods applied to telescopes at Medicina and Noto in Italy. We find that the model corrections shift the derived height components of these VLBI telescopes' reference points downward by 14.5 and 12.2 mm, respectively. No other parameter estimates nor other station positions are affected. Such systematic height errors are much larger than the formal VLBI random errors and imply the possibility of significant VLBI frame scale distortions, of major concern for the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) and its applications. This demonstrates the urgent need to investigate gravitational deformations in other VLBI telescopes and eventually correct them in routine data analysis.

Sleep quality, posttraumatic stress, depression, and human errors in train drivers: a population-based nationwide study in South Korea.

PubMed

Jeon, Hong Jin; Kim, Ji-Hae; Kim, Bin-Na; Park, Seung Jin; Fava, Maurizio; Mischoulon, David; Kang, Eun-Ho; Roh, Sungwon; Lee, Dongsoo

2014-12-01

Human error is defined as an unintended error that is attributable to humans rather than machines, and that is important to avoid to prevent accidents. We aimed to investigate the association between sleep quality and human errors among train drivers. Cross-sectional. Population-based. A sample of 5,480 subjects who were actively working as train drivers were recruited in South Korea. The participants were 4,634 drivers who completed all questionnaires (response rate 84.6%). None. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), and the Korean Occupational Stress Scale (KOSS). Of 4,634 train drivers, 349 (7.5%) showed more than one human error per 5 y. Human errors were associated with poor sleep quality, higher PSQI total scores, short sleep duration at night, and longer sleep latency. Among train drivers with poor sleep quality, those who experienced severe posttraumatic stress showed a significantly higher number of human errors than those without. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that human errors were significantly associated with poor sleep quality and posttraumatic stress, whereas there were no significant associations with depression, trait and state anxiety, and work stress after adjusting for age, sex, education years, marital status, and career duration. Poor sleep quality was found to be associated with more human errors in train drivers, especially in those who experienced severe posttraumatic stress. © 2014 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

A Bayesian approach to model structural error and input variability in groundwater modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, T.; Valocchi, A. J.; Lin, Y. F. F.; Liang, F.

2015-12-01

Effective water resource management typically relies on numerical models to analyze groundwater flow and solute transport processes. Model structural error (due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of the "true" environmental system) and input forcing variability (which commonly arises since some inputs are uncontrolled or estimated with high uncertainty) are ubiquitous in groundwater models. Calibration that overlooks errors in model structure and input data can lead to biased parameter estimates and compromised predictions. We present a fully Bayesian approach for a complete assessment of uncertainty for spatially distributed groundwater models. The approach explicitly recognizes stochastic input and uses data-driven error models based on nonparametric kernel methods to account for model structural error. We employ exploratory data analysis to assist in specifying informative prior for error models to improve identifiability. The inference is facilitated by an efficient sampling algorithm based on DREAM-ZS and a parameter subspace multiple-try strategy to reduce the required number of forward simulations of the groundwater model. We demonstrate the Bayesian approach through a synthetic case study of surface-ground water interaction under changing pumping conditions. It is found that explicit treatment of errors in model structure and input data (groundwater pumping rate) has substantial impact on the posterior distribution of groundwater model parameters. Using error models reduces predictive bias caused by parameter compensation. In addition, input variability increases parametric and predictive uncertainty. The Bayesian approach allows for a comparison among the contributions from various error sources, which could inform future model improvement and data collection efforts on how to best direct resources towards reducing predictive uncertainty.

The impact of work-related stress on medication errors in Eastern Region Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Salam, Abdul; Segal, David M; Abu-Helalah, Munir Ahmad; Gutierrez, Mary Lou; Joosub, Imran; Ahmed, Wasim; Bibi, Rubina; Clarke, Elizabeth; Qarni, Ali Ahmed Al

2018-05-07

To examine the relationship between overall level and source-specific work-related stressors on medication errors rate. A cross-sectional study examined the relationship between overall levels of stress, 25 source-specific work-related stressors and medication error rate based on documented incident reports in Saudi Arabia (SA) hospital, using secondary databases. King Abdulaziz Hospital in Al-Ahsa, Eastern Region, SA. Two hundred and sixty-nine healthcare professionals (HCPs). The odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for HCPs documented incident report medication errors and self-reported sources of Job Stress Survey. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified source-specific work-related stress as significantly associated with HCPs who made at least one medication error per month (P < 0.05), including disruption to home life, pressure to meet deadlines, difficulties with colleagues, excessive workload, income over 10 000 riyals and compulsory night/weekend call duties either some or all of the time. Although not statistically significant, HCPs who reported overall stress were two times more likely to make at least one medication error per month than non-stressed HCPs (OR: 1.95, P = 0.081). This is the first study to use documented incident reports for medication errors rather than self-report to evaluate the level of stress-related medication errors in SA HCPs. Job demands, such as social stressors (home life disruption, difficulties with colleagues), time pressures, structural determinants (compulsory night/weekend call duties) and higher income, were significantly associated with medication errors whereas overall stress revealed a 2-fold higher trend.

Effects of minute misregistrations of prefabricated markers for image-guided dental implant surgery: an analytical evaluation.

PubMed

Rußig, Lorenz L; Schulze, Ralf K W

2013-12-01

The goal of the present study was to develop a theoretical analysis of errors in implant position, which can occur owing to minute registration errors of a reference marker in a cone beam computed tomography volume when inserting an implant with a surgical stent. A virtual dental-arch model was created using anatomic data derived from the literature. Basic trigonometry was used to compute effects of defined minute registration errors of only voxel size. The errors occurring at the implant's neck and apex both in horizontal as in vertical direction were computed for mean ±95%-confidence intervals of jaw width and length and typical implant lengths (8, 10 and 12 mm). Largest errors occur in vertical direction for larger voxel sizes and for greater arch dimensions. For a 10 mm implant in the frontal region, these can amount to a mean of 0.716 mm (range: 0.201-1.533 mm). Horizontal errors at the neck are negligible, with a mean overall deviation of 0.009 mm (range: 0.001-0.034 mm). Errors increase with distance to the registration marker and voxel size and are affected by implant length. Our study shows that minute and realistic errors occurring in the automated registration of a reference object have an impact on the implant's position and angulation. These errors occur in the fundamental initial step in the long planning chain; thus, they are critical and should be made aware to users of these systems. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling: 2. Impact of time stepping schemes on model analysis and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.

2010-10-01

Despite the widespread use of conceptual hydrological models in environmental research and operations, they remain frequently implemented using numerically unreliable methods. This paper considers the impact of the time stepping scheme on model analysis (sensitivity analysis, parameter optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo-based uncertainty estimation) and prediction. It builds on the companion paper (Clark and Kavetski, 2010), which focused on numerical accuracy, fidelity, and computational efficiency. Empirical and theoretical analysis of eight distinct time stepping schemes for six different hydrological models in 13 diverse basins demonstrates several critical conclusions. (1) Unreliable time stepping schemes, in particular, fixed-step explicit methods, suffer from troublesome numerical artifacts that severely deform the objective function of the model. These deformations are not rare isolated instances but can arise in any model structure, in any catchment, and under common hydroclimatic conditions. (2) Sensitivity analysis can be severely contaminated by numerical errors, often to the extent that it becomes dominated by the sensitivity of truncation errors rather than the model equations. (3) Robust time stepping schemes generally produce "better behaved" objective functions, free of spurious local optima, and with sufficient numerical continuity to permit parameter optimization using efficient quasi Newton methods. When implemented within a multistart framework, modern Newton-type optimizers are robust even when started far from the optima and provide valuable diagnostic insights not directly available from evolutionary global optimizers. (4) Unreliable time stepping schemes lead to inconsistent and biased inferences of the model parameters and internal states. (5) Even when interactions between hydrological parameters and numerical errors provide "the right result for the wrong reason" and the calibrated model performance appears adequate, unreliable time stepping schemes make the model unnecessarily fragile in predictive mode, undermining validation assessments and operational use. Erroneous or misleading conclusions of model analysis and prediction arising from numerical artifacts in hydrological models are intolerable, especially given that robust numerics are accepted as mainstream in other areas of science and engineering. We hope that the vivid empirical findings will encourage the conceptual hydrological community to close its Pandora's box of numerical problems, paving the way for more meaningful model application and interpretation.

Linear Combination Fitting (LCF)-XANES analysis of As speciation in selected mine-impacted materials

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This table provides sample identification labels and classification of sample type (tailings, calcinated, grey slime). For each sample, total arsenic and iron concentrations determined by acid digestion and ICP analysis are provided along with arsenic in-vitro bioaccessibility (As IVBA) values to estimate arsenic risk. Lastly, the table provides linear combination fitting results from synchrotron XANES analysis showing the distribution of arsenic speciation phases present in each sample along with fitting error (R-factor).This dataset is associated with the following publication:Ollson, C., E. Smith, K. Scheckel, A. Betts, and A. Juhasz. Assessment of arsenic speciation and bioaccessibility in mine-impacted materials. Diana Aga, Wonyong Choi, Andrew Daugulis, Gianluca Li Puma, Gerasimos Lyberatos, and Joo Hwa Tay JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, USA, 313: 130-137, (2016).

Optimal error analysis of the intraseasonal convection due to uncertainties of the sea surface temperature in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaojing; Tang, Youmin; Yao, Zhixiong

2017-04-01

The predictability of the convection related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is studied using a coupled model CESM (Community Earth System Model) and the climatically relevant singular vector (CSV) approach. The CSV approach is an ensemble-based strategy to calculate the optimal initial error on climate scale. In this study, we focus on the optimal initial error of the sea surface temperature in Indian Ocean, where is the location of the MJO onset. Six MJO events are chosen from the 10 years model simulation output. The results show that the large values of the SVs are mainly located in the bay of Bengal and the south central IO (around (25°S, 90°E)), which is a meridional dipole-like pattern. The fast error growth of the CSVs have important impacts on the prediction of the convection related to the MJO. The initial perturbations with the SV pattern result in the deep convection damping more quickly in the east Pacific Ocean. Moreover, the sensitivity studies of the CSVs show that different initial fields do not affect the CSVs obviously, while the perturbation domain is a more responsive factor to the CSVs. The rapid growth of the CSVs is found to be related to the west bay of Bengal, where the wind stress starts to be perturbed due to the CSV initial error. These results contribute to the establishment of an ensemble prediction system, as well as the optimal observation network. In addition, the analysis of the error growth can provide us some enlightment about the relationship between SST and the intraseasonal convection related to the MJO.

Close-range radar rainfall estimation and error analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Beek, C. Z.; Leijnse, H.; Hazenberg, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2016-08-01

Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) using ground-based weather radar is affected by many sources of error. The most important of these are (1) radar calibration, (2) ground clutter, (3) wet-radome attenuation, (4) rain-induced attenuation, (5) vertical variability in rain drop size distribution (DSD), (6) non-uniform beam filling and (7) variations in DSD. This study presents an attempt to separate and quantify these sources of error in flat terrain very close to the radar (1-2 km), where (4), (5) and (6) only play a minor role. Other important errors exist, like beam blockage, WLAN interferences and hail contamination and are briefly mentioned, but not considered in the analysis. A 3-day rainfall event (25-27 August 2010) that produced more than 50 mm of precipitation in De Bilt, the Netherlands, is analyzed using radar, rain gauge and disdrometer data. Without any correction, it is found that the radar severely underestimates the total rain amount (by more than 50 %). The calibration of the radar receiver is operationally monitored by analyzing the received power from the sun. This turns out to cause a 1 dB underestimation. The operational clutter filter applied by KNMI is found to incorrectly identify precipitation as clutter, especially at near-zero Doppler velocities. An alternative simple clutter removal scheme using a clear sky clutter map improves the rainfall estimation slightly. To investigate the effect of wet-radome attenuation, stable returns from buildings close to the radar are analyzed. It is shown that this may have caused an underestimation of up to 4 dB. Finally, a disdrometer is used to derive event and intra-event specific Z-R relations due to variations in the observed DSDs. Such variations may result in errors when applying the operational Marshall-Palmer Z-R relation. Correcting for all of these effects has a large positive impact on the radar-derived precipitation estimates and yields a good match between radar QPE and gauge measurements, with a difference of 5-8 %. This shows the potential of radar as a tool for rainfall estimation, especially at close ranges, but also underlines the importance of applying radar correction methods as individual errors can have a large detrimental impact on the QPE performance of the radar.

Two-step estimation in ratio-of-mediator-probability weighted causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Bein, Edward; Deutsch, Jonah; Hong, Guanglei; Porter, Kristin E; Qin, Xu; Yang, Cheng

2018-04-15

This study investigates appropriate estimation of estimator variability in the context of causal mediation analysis that employs propensity score-based weighting. Such an analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on the outcome into an indirect effect transmitted through a focal mediator and a direct effect bypassing the mediator. Ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting estimates these causal effects by adjusting for the confounding impact of a large number of pretreatment covariates through propensity score-based weighting. In step 1, a propensity score model is estimated. In step 2, the causal effects of interest are estimated using weights derived from the prior step's regression coefficient estimates. Statistical inferences obtained from this 2-step estimation procedure are potentially problematic if the estimated standard errors of the causal effect estimates do not reflect the sampling uncertainty in the estimation of the weights. This study extends to ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting analysis a solution to the 2-step estimation problem by stacking the score functions from both steps. We derive the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the indirect effect and direct effect 2-step estimators, provide simulation results, and illustrate with an application study. Our simulation results indicate that the sampling uncertainty in the estimated weights should not be ignored. The standard error estimation using the stacking procedure offers a viable alternative to bootstrap standard error estimation. We discuss broad implications of this approach for causal analysis involving propensity score-based weighting. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optical analysis of the star-tracker telescope for Gravity Probe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zissa, D. E.

1984-01-01

A ray tracing modeling of the star tracker telescope for Gravity Probe was used to predict the character of the output signal and its sensitivity to fabrication errors. In particular, the impact of the optical subsystem on the requirement of 1 milliarc second signal linearity over a + or - 50 milliarc second range was examined. Photomultiplier and solid state detector options were considered. Recommendations are made.

Exploring cosmic origins with CORE: Mitigation of systematic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natoli, P.; Ashdown, M.; Banerji, R.; Borrill, J.; Buzzelli, A.; de Gasperis, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Hivon, E.; Molinari, D.; Patanchon, G.; Polastri, L.; Tomasi, M.; Bouchet, F. R.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hoang, D. T.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T.; Lindholm, V.; McCarthy, D.; Piacentini, F.; Perdereau, O.; Polenta, G.; Tristram, M.; Achucarro, A.; Ade, P.; Allison, R.; Baccigalupi, C.; Ballardini, M.; Banday, A. J.; Bartlett, J.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Baumann, D.; Bersanelli, M.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonato, M.; Boulanger, F.; Brinckmann, T.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Cai, Z.-Y.; Calvo, M.; Carvalho, C.-S.; Castellano, M. G.; Challinor, A.; Chluba, J.; Clesse, S.; Colantoni, I.; Coppolecchia, A.; Crook, M.; D'Alessandro, G.; de Bernardis, P.; De Zotti, G.; Di Valentino, E.; Diego, J.-M.; Errard, J.; Feeney, S.; Fernandez-Cobos, R.; Finelli, F.; Forastieri, F.; Galli, S.; Genova-Santos, R.; Gerbino, M.; González-Nuevo, J.; Grandis, S.; Greenslade, J.; Gruppuso, A.; Hagstotz, S.; Hanany, S.; Handley, W.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Hervías-Caimapo, C.; Hills, M.; Keihänen, E.; Kitching, T.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lamagna, L.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lesgourgues, J.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Luzzi, G.; Maffei, B.; Mandolesi, N.; Martinez-González, E.; Martins, C. J. A. P.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.-B.; Migliaccio, M.; Monfardini, A.; Negrello, M.; Notari, A.; Pagano, L.; Paiella, A.; Paoletti, D.; Piat, M.; Pisano, G.; Pollo, A.; Poulin, V.; Quartin, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Roman, M.; Rossi, G.; Rubino-Martin, J.-A.; Salvati, L.; Signorelli, G.; Tartari, A.; Tramonte, D.; Trappe, N.; Trombetti, T.; Tucker, C.; Valiviita, J.; Van de Weijgaert, R.; van Tent, B.; Vennin, V.; Vielva, P.; Vittorio, N.; Wallis, C.; Young, K.; Zannoni, M.

2018-04-01

We present an analysis of the main systematic effects that could impact the measurement of CMB polarization with the proposed CORE space mission. We employ timeline-to-map simulations to verify that the CORE instrumental set-up and scanning strategy allow us to measure sky polarization to a level of accuracy adequate to the mission science goals. We also show how the CORE observations can be processed to mitigate the level of contamination by potentially worrying systematics, including intensity-to-polarization leakage due to bandpass mismatch, asymmetric main beams, pointing errors and correlated noise. We use analysis techniques that are well validated on data from current missions such as Planck to demonstrate how the residual contamination of the measurements by these effects can be brought to a level low enough not to hamper the scientific capability of the mission, nor significantly increase the overall error budget. We also present a prototype of the CORE photometric calibration pipeline, based on that used for Planck, and discuss its robustness to systematics, showing how CORE can achieve its calibration requirements. While a fine-grained assessment of the impact of systematics requires a level of knowledge of the system that can only be achieved in a future study phase, the analysis presented here strongly suggests that the main areas of concern for the CORE mission can be addressed using existing knowledge, techniques and algorithms.

An introduction to multiplicity issues in clinical trials: the what, why, when and how.

PubMed

Li, Guowei; Taljaard, Monica; Van den Heuvel, Edwin R; Levine, Mitchell Ah; Cook, Deborah J; Wells, George A; Devereaux, Philip J; Thabane, Lehana

2017-04-01

In clinical trials it is not uncommon to face a multiple testing problem which can have an impact on both type I and type II error rates, leading to inappropriate interpretation of trial results. Multiplicity issues may need to be considered at the design, analysis and interpretation stages of a trial. The proportion of trial reports not adequately correcting for multiple testing remains substantial. The purpose of this article is to provide an introduction to multiple testing issues in clinical trials, and to reduce confusion around the need for multiplicity adjustments. We use a tutorial, question-and-answer approach to address the key issues of why, when and how to consider multiplicity adjustments in trials. We summarize the relevant circumstances under which multiplicity adjustments ought to be considered, as well as options for carrying out multiplicity adjustments in terms of trial design factors including Population, Intervention/Comparison, Outcome, Time frame and Analysis (PICOTA). Results are presented in an easy-to-use table and flow diagrams. Confusion about multiplicity issues can be reduced or avoided by considering the potential impact of multiplicity on type I and II errors and, if necessary pre-specifying statistical approaches to either avoid or adjust for multiplicity in the trial protocol or analysis plan. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Branch-Based Model for the Diameters of the Pulmonary Airways: Accounting for Departures From Self-Consistency and Registration Errors

PubMed Central

Neradilek, Moni B.; Polissar, Nayak L.; Einstein, Daniel R.; Glenny, Robb W.; Minard, Kevin R.; Carson, James P.; Jiao, Xiangmin; Jacob, Richard E.; Cox, Timothy C.; Postlethwait, Edward M.; Corley, Richard A.

2017-01-01

We examine a previously published branch-based approach for modeling airway diameters that is predicated on the assumption of self-consistency across all levels of the tree. We mathematically formulate this assumption, propose a method to test it and develop a more general model to be used when the assumption is violated. We discuss the effect of measurement error on the estimated models and propose methods that take account of error. The methods are illustrated on data from MRI and CT images of silicone casts of two rats, two normal monkeys, and one ozone-exposed monkey. Our results showed substantial departures from self-consistency in all five subjects. When departures from self-consistency exist, we do not recommend using the self-consistency model, even as an approximation, as we have shown that it may likely lead to an incorrect representation of the diameter geometry. The new variance model can be used instead. Measurement error has an important impact on the estimated morphometry models and needs to be addressed in the analysis. PMID:22528468

Volume error analysis for lung nodules attached to pulmonary vessels in an anthropomorphic thoracic phantom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnard, Lisa M.; Gavrielides, Marios A.; Myers, Kyle J.; Zeng, Rongping; Peregoy, Jennifer; Pritchard, William; Karanian, John W.; Petrick, Nicholas

2008-03-01

High-resolution CT, three-dimensional (3D) methods for nodule volumetry have been introduced, with the hope that such methods will be more accurate and consistent than currently used planar measures of size. However, the error associated with volume estimation methods still needs to be quantified. Volume estimation error is multi-faceted in the sense that it is impacted by characteristics of the patient, the software tool and the CT system. The overall goal of this research is to quantify the various sources of measurement error and, when possible, minimize their effects. In the current study, we estimated nodule volume from ten repeat scans of an anthropomorphic phantom containing two synthetic spherical lung nodules (diameters: 5 and 10 mm; density: -630 HU), using a 16-slice Philips CT with 20, 50, 100 and 200 mAs exposures and 0.8 and 3.0 mm slice thicknesses. True volume was estimated from an average of diameter measurements, made using digital calipers. We report variance and bias results for volume measurements as a function of slice thickness, nodule diameter, and X-ray exposure.

Including sheath effects in the interpretation of planar retarding potential analyzer's low-energy ion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, L. E.; Lynch, K. A.; Fernandes, P. A.; Bekkeng, T. A.; Moen, J.; Zettergren, M.; Miceli, R. J.; Powell, S.; Lessard, M. R.; Horak, P.

2016-04-01

The interpretation of planar retarding potential analyzers (RPA) during ionospheric sounding rocket missions requires modeling the thick 3D plasma sheath. This paper overviews the theory of RPAs with an emphasis placed on the impact of the sheath on current-voltage (I-V) curves. It then describes the Petite Ion Probe (PIP) which has been designed to function in this difficult regime. The data analysis procedure for this instrument is discussed in detail. Data analysis begins by modeling the sheath with the Spacecraft Plasma Interaction System (SPIS), a particle-in-cell code. Test particles are traced through the sheath and detector to determine the detector's response. A training set is constructed from these simulated curves for a support vector regression analysis which relates the properties of the I-V curve to the properties of the plasma. The first in situ use of the PIPs occurred during the MICA sounding rocket mission which launched from Poker Flat, Alaska in February of 2012. These data are presented as a case study, providing valuable cross-instrument comparisons. A heritage top-hat thermal ion electrostatic analyzer, called the HT, and a multi-needle Langmuir probe have been used to validate both the PIPs and the data analysis method. Compared to the HT, the PIP ion temperature measurements agree with a root-mean-square error of 0.023 eV. These two instruments agree on the parallel-to-B plasma flow velocity with a root-mean-square error of 130 m/s. The PIP with its field of view aligned perpendicular-to-B provided a density measurement with an 11% error compared to the multi-needle Langmuir Probe. Higher error in the other PIP's density measurement is likely due to simplifications in the SPIS model geometry.

Long-term forecasting of meteorological time series using Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldesellasse, H. T.; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T.

2016-12-01

Wind is one of the crucial renewable energy sources which is expected to bring solutions to the challenges of clean energy and the global issue of climate change. A number of linear and nonlinear multivariate techniques has been used to predict the stochastic character of wind speed. A wind forecast with good accuracy has a positive impact on the reduction of electricity system cost and is essential for the effective grid management. Over the past years, few studies have been done on the assessment of teleconnections and its possible effects on the long-term wind speed variability in the UAE region. In this study Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA) method is applied to study the relationship between global climate oscillation indices and meteorological variables, with a major emphasis on wind speed and wind direction, of Abu Dhabi, UAE. The wind dataset was obtained from six ground stations. The first mode of NLCCA is capable of capturing the nonlinear mode of the climate indices at different seasons, showing the symmetry between the warm states and the cool states. The strength of the nonlinear canonical correlation between the two sets of variables varies with the lead/lag time. The performance of the models is assessed by calculating error indices such as the root mean square error (RMSE) and Mean absolute error (MAE). The results indicated that NLCCA models provide more accurate information about the nonlinear intrinsic behaviour of the dataset of variables than linear CCA model in terms of the correlation and root mean square error. Key words: Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA), Canonical Correlation Analysis, Neural Network, Climate Indices, wind speed, wind direction

Optimization of Aimpoints for Coordinate Seeking Weapons

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

aiming) and independent ( ballistic ) errors are taken into account, before utilizing each of the three damage functions representing the weapon. A Monte...characteristics such as the radius of the circle containing the weapon aimpoint, impact angle, dependent (aiming) and independent ( ballistic ) errors are taken...Dependent (Aiming) Error .................................8 2. Single Weapon Independent ( Ballistic ) Error .............................9 3

Impact of solids on composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bronson, Arturo; Maldonado, Jerry; Chern, Tzong; Martinez, Francisco; Mccord-Medrano, Johnnie; Roschke, Paul N.

1987-01-01

The failure modes of composite materials as a result of low velocity impact were investigated by simulating the impact with a finite element analysis. An important facet of the project is the modeling of the impact of a solid onto cylindrical shells composed of composite materials. The model under development will simulate the delamination sustained when a composite material encounters impact from another rigid body. The computer equipment was installed, the computer network tested, and a finite element method model was developed to compare results with known experimental data. The model simulated the impact of a steel rod onto a rotating shaft. Pre-processing programs (GMESH and TANVEL) were developed to generate node and element data for the input into the three dimensional, dynamic finite element analysis code (DYNA3D). The finite element mesh was configured with a fine mesh near the impact zone and a coarser mesh for the impacting rod and the regions surrounding the impacting zone. For the computer simulation, five impacting loads were used to determine the time history of the stresses, the scribed surface areas, and the amount of ridging. The processing time of the computer codes amounted from 1 to 4 days. The calculated surface area were within 6-12 percent, relative error when compated to the actual scratch area.

Error and Error Mitigation in Low-Coverage Genome Assemblies

PubMed Central

Hubisz, Melissa J.; Lin, Michael F.; Kellis, Manolis; Siepel, Adam

2011-01-01

The recent release of twenty-two new genome sequences has dramatically increased the data available for mammalian comparative genomics, but twenty of these new sequences are currently limited to ∼2× coverage. Here we examine the extent of sequencing error in these 2× assemblies, and its potential impact in downstream analyses. By comparing 2× assemblies with high-quality sequences from the ENCODE regions, we estimate the rate of sequencing error to be 1–4 errors per kilobase. While this error rate is fairly modest, sequencing error can still have surprising effects. For example, an apparent lineage-specific insertion in a coding region is more likely to reflect sequencing error than a true biological event, and the length distribution of coding indels is strongly distorted by error. We find that most errors are contributed by a small fraction of bases with low quality scores, in particular, by the ends of reads in regions of single-read coverage in the assembly. We explore several approaches for automatic sequencing error mitigation (SEM), making use of the localized nature of sequencing error, the fact that it is well predicted by quality scores, and information about errors that comes from comparisons across species. Our automatic methods for error mitigation cannot replace the need for additional sequencing, but they do allow substantial fractions of errors to be masked or eliminated at the cost of modest amounts of over-correction, and they can reduce the impact of error in downstream phylogenomic analyses. Our error-mitigated alignments are available for download. PMID:21340033

Determination of Barometric Altimeter Errors for the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Denise L.; Munoz, Jean-Philippe; Gay, Robert

2011-01-01

The EFT-1 mission is the unmanned flight test for the upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). During entry, the EFT-1 vehicle will trigger several Landing and Recovery System (LRS) events, such as parachute deployment, based on onboard altitude information. The primary altitude source is the filtered navigation solution updated with GPS measurement data. The vehicle also has three barometric altimeters that will be used to measure atmospheric pressure during entry. In the event that GPS data is not available during entry, the altitude derived from the barometric altimeter pressure will be used to trigger chute deployment for the drogues and main parachutes. Therefore it is important to understand the impact of error sources on the pressure measured by the barometric altimeters and on the altitude derived from that pressure. There are four primary error sources impacting the sensed pressure: sensor errors, Analog to Digital conversion errors, aerodynamic errors, and atmosphere modeling errors. This last error source is induced by the conversion from pressure to altitude in the vehicle flight software, which requires an atmosphere model such as the US Standard 1976 Atmosphere model. There are several secondary error sources as well, such as waves, tides, and latencies in data transmission. Typically, for error budget calculations it is assumed that all error sources are independent, normally distributed variables. Thus, the initial approach to developing the EFT-1 barometric altimeter altitude error budget was to create an itemized error budget under these assumptions. This budget was to be verified by simulation using high fidelity models of the vehicle hardware and software. The simulation barometric altimeter model includes hardware error sources and a data-driven model of the aerodynamic errors expected to impact the pressure in the midbay compartment in which the sensors are located. The aerodynamic model includes the pressure difference between the midbay compartment and the free stream pressure as a function of altitude, oscillations in sensed pressure due to wake effects, and an acoustics model capturing fluctuations in pressure due to motion of the passive vents separating the barometric altimeters from the outside of the vehicle.

Increased instrument intelligence--can it reduce laboratory error?

PubMed

Jekelis, Albert W

2005-01-01

Recent literature has focused on the reduction of laboratory errors and the potential impact on patient management. This study assessed the intelligent, automated preanalytical process-control abilities in newer generation analyzers as compared with older analyzers and the impact on error reduction. Three generations of immuno-chemistry analyzers were challenged with pooled human serum samples for a 3-week period. One of the three analyzers had an intelligent process of fluidics checks, including bubble detection. Bubbles can cause erroneous results due to incomplete sample aspiration. This variable was chosen because it is the most easily controlled sample defect that can be introduced. Traditionally, lab technicians have had to visually inspect each sample for the presence of bubbles. This is time consuming and introduces the possibility of human error. Instruments with bubble detection may be able to eliminate the human factor and reduce errors associated with the presence of bubbles. Specific samples were vortexed daily to introduce a visible quantity of bubbles, then immediately placed in the daily run. Errors were defined as a reported result greater than three standard deviations below the mean and associated with incomplete sample aspiration of the analyte of the individual analyzer Three standard deviations represented the target limits of proficiency testing. The results of the assays were examined for accuracy and precision. Efficiency, measured as process throughput, was also measured to associate a cost factor and potential impact of the error detection on the overall process. The analyzer performance stratified according to their level of internal process control The older analyzers without bubble detection reported 23 erred results. The newest analyzer with bubble detection reported one specimen incorrectly. The precision and accuracy of the nonvortexed specimens were excellent and acceptable for all three analyzers. No errors were found in the nonvortexed specimens. There were no significant differences in overall process time for any of the analyzers when tests were arranged in an optimal configuration. The analyzer with advanced fluidic intelligence demostrated the greatest ability to appropriately deal with an incomplete aspiration by not processing and reporting a result for the sample. This study suggests that preanalytical process-control capabilities could reduce errors. By association, it implies that similar intelligent process controls could favorably impact the error rate and, in the case of this instrument, do it without negatively impacting process throughput. Other improvements may be realized as a result of having an intelligent error-detection process including further reduction in misreported results, fewer repeats, less operator intervention, and less reagent waste.

A retrospective review of medical errors adjudicated in court between 2002 and 2012 in Spain.

PubMed

Giraldo, Priscila; Sato, Luke; Sala, María; Comas, Merce; Dywer, Kathy; Castells, Xavier

2016-02-01

This paper describes verdicts in court involving injury-producing medical errors in Spain. A descriptive analysis of 1041 closed court verdicts from Spain between January 2002 and December 2012. It was determined whether a medical error had occurred, and among those with medical error (n = 270), characteristics and results of litigation were analyzed. Data on litigation were obtained from the Thomson Reuters Aranzadi Westlaw databases. All verdicts involving health system were reviewed and classified according to the presence of medical error. Among those, contributory factors, medical specialty involved, health impact (death, disability and severity) and results of litigation (resolution, time to verdict and economic compensations) were described. Medical errors were involved in 25.9% of court verdicts. The cause of medical error was a diagnosis-related problem in 25.1% and surgical treatment in 22.2%, and Obstetrics-Gynecology was the most frequent involved specialty (21%). Most of them were of high severity (59.4%), one-third (32%) caused death. The average time interval between the occurrence of the error and the verdict was 7.8 years. The average indemnity payment was €239 505.24; the highest was psychiatry (€7 585 075.86) and the lowest was Emergency Medicine (€69 871.19). This study indicates that in Spain medical errors are common among verdicts involving the health system, most of them causing high-severity adverse outcomes. The interval between the medical error and the verdict is excessive, and there is a wide range of economic compensation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Associations between communication climate and the frequency of medical error reporting among pharmacists within an inpatient setting.

PubMed

Patterson, Mark E; Pace, Heather A; Fincham, Jack E

2013-09-01

Although error-reporting systems enable hospitals to accurately track safety climate through the identification of adverse events, these systems may be underused within a work climate of poor communication. The objective of this analysis is to identify the extent to which perceived communication climate among hospital pharmacists impacts medical error reporting rates. This cross-sectional study used survey responses from more than 5000 pharmacists responding to the 2010 Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSOPSC). Two composite scores were constructed for "communication openness" and "feedback and about error," respectively. Error reporting frequency was defined from the survey question, "In the past 12 months, how many event reports have you filled out and submitted?" Multivariable logistic regressions were used to estimate the likelihood of medical error reporting conditional upon communication openness or feedback levels, controlling for pharmacist years of experience, hospital geographic region, and ownership status. Pharmacists with higher communication openness scores compared with lower scores were 40% more likely to have filed or submitted a medical error report in the past 12 months (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7; P = 0.004). In contrast, pharmacists with higher communication feedback scores were not any more likely than those with lower scores to have filed or submitted a medical report in the past 12 months (OR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.8-1.3; P = 0.97). Hospital work climates that encourage pharmacists to freely communicate about problems related to patient safety is conducive to medical error reporting. The presence of feedback infrastructures about error may not be sufficient to induce error-reporting behavior.

The Impact of Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles on Short-term Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William

2007-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced spacebased atmospheric sounding systems. The combined AlRS/AMSU system provides radiance measurements used to retrieve temperature profiles with an accuracy of 1 K over 1 km layers under both clear and partly cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived humidity profiles is 15% in 2 km layers. Critical to the successful use of AIRS profiles for weather and climate studies is the use of profile quality indicators and error estimates provided with each profile Aside form monitoring changes in Earth's climate, one of the objectives of AIRS is to provide sounding information of sufficient accuracy such that the assimilation of the new observations, especially in data sparse region, will lead to an improvement in weather forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate highresolution AIRS profile data in a regional analysis/forecast model. The paper will focus on the impact of AIRS profiles on a rapidly developing east coast storm and will also discuss preliminary results for a 30-day forecast period, simulating a quasi-operation environment. Temperature and moisture profiles were obtained from the prototype version 5.0 EOS science team retrieval algorithm which includes explicit error information for each profile. The error profile information was used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for every profile location and pressure level for assimilation into the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS). The AIRS-enhanced analyses were used as initial fields for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system used by the SPORT project for regional weather forecast studies. The ADASWRF system will be run on CONUS domain with an emphasis on the east coast. The preliminary assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, intelligent use of the quality indicators, and forecast verification.

On a more rigorous gravity field processing for future LL-SST type gravity satellite missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daras, I.; Pail, R.; Murböck, M.

2013-12-01

In order to meet the augmenting demands of the user community concerning accuracies of temporal gravity field models, future gravity missions of low-low satellite-to-satellite tracking (LL-SST) type are planned to carry more precise sensors than their precedents. A breakthrough is planned with the improved LL-SST measurement link, where the traditional K-band microwave instrument of 1μm accuracy will be complemented by an inter-satellite ranging instrument of several nm accuracy. This study focuses on investigations concerning the potential performance of the new sensors and their impact in gravity field solutions. The processing methods for gravity field recovery have to meet the new sensor standards and be able to take full advantage of the new accuracies that they provide. We use full-scale simulations in a realistic environment to investigate whether the standard processing techniques suffice to fully exploit the new sensors standards. We achieve that by performing full numerical closed-loop simulations based on the Integral Equation approach. In our simulation scheme, we simulate dynamic orbits in a conventional tracking analysis to compute pseudo inter-satellite ranges or range-rates that serve as observables. Each part of the processing is validated separately with special emphasis on numerical errors and their impact in gravity field solutions. We demonstrate that processing with standard precision may be a limiting factor for taking full advantage of new generation sensors that future satellite missions will carry. Therefore we have created versions of our simulator with enhanced processing precision with primarily aim to minimize round-off system errors. Results using the enhanced precision show a big reduction of system errors that were present at the standard precision processing even for the error-free scenario, and reveal the improvements the new sensors will bring into the gravity field solutions. As a next step, we analyze the contribution of individual error sources to the system's error budget. More specifically we analyze sensor noise from the laser interferometer and the accelerometers, errors in the kinematic orbits and the background fields as well as temporal and spatial aliasing errors. We give special care on the assessment of error sources with stochastic behavior, such as the laser interferometer and the accelerometers, and their consistent stochastic modeling in frame of the adjustment process.

VLBI-derived troposphere parameters during CONT08

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinkelmann, R.; Böhm, J.; Bolotin, S.; Engelhardt, G.; Haas, R.; Lanotte, R.; MacMillan, D. S.; Negusini, M.; Skurikhina, E.; Titov, O.; Schuh, H.

2011-07-01

Time-series of zenith wet and total troposphere delays as well as north and east gradients are compared, and zenith total delays ( ZTD) are combined on the level of parameter estimates. Input data sets are provided by ten Analysis Centers (ACs) of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) for the CONT08 campaign (12-26 August 2008). The inconsistent usage of meteorological data and models, such as mapping functions, causes systematics among the ACs, and differing parameterizations and constraints add noise to the troposphere parameter estimates. The empirical standard deviation of ZTD among the ACs with regard to an unweighted mean is 4.6 mm. The ratio of the analysis noise to the observation noise assessed by the operator/software impact (OSI) model is about 2.5. These and other effects have to be accounted for to improve the intra-technique combination of VLBI-derived troposphere parameters. While the largest systematics caused by inconsistent usage of meteorological data can be avoided and the application of different mapping functions can be considered by applying empirical corrections, the noise has to be modeled in the stochastic model of intra-technique combination. The application of different stochastic models shows no significant effects on the combined parameters but results in different mean formal errors: the mean formal errors of the combined ZTD are 2.3 mm (unweighted), 4.4 mm (diagonal), 8.6 mm [variance component (VC) estimation], and 8.6 mm (operator/software impact, OSI). On the one hand, the OSI model, i.e. the inclusion of off-diagonal elements in the cofactor-matrix, considers the reapplication of observations yielding a factor of about two for mean formal errors as compared to the diagonal approach. On the other hand, the combination based on VC estimation shows large differences among the VCs and exhibits a comparable scaling of formal errors. Thus, for the combination of troposphere parameters a combination of the two extensions of the stochastic model is recommended.

A study and simulation of the impact of high-order aberrations to overlay error distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, G.; Wang, F.; Zhou, C.

2011-03-01

With reduction of design rules, a number of corresponding new technologies, such as i-HOPC, HOWA and DBO have been proposed and applied to eliminate overlay error. When these technologies are in use, any high-order error distribution needs to be clearly distinguished in order to remove the underlying causes. Lens aberrations are normally thought to mainly impact the Matching Machine Overlay (MMO). However, when using Image-Based overlay (IBO) measurement tools, aberrations become the dominant influence on single machine overlay (SMO) and even on stage repeatability performance. In this paper, several measurements of the error distributions of the lens of SMEE SSB600/10 prototype exposure tool are presented. Models that characterize the primary influence from lens magnification, high order distortion, coma aberration and telecentricity are shown. The contribution to stage repeatability (as measured with IBO tools) from the above errors was predicted with simulator and compared to experiments. Finally, the drift of every lens distortion that impact to SMO over several days was monitored and matched with the result of measurements.

Bayesian Hierarchical Models to Augment the Mediterranean Forecast System

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

In part 2 (Bonazzi et al., 2010), the impact of the ensemble forecast methodology based on MFS-Wind-BHM perturbations is documented. Forecast...absence of dt data stage inputs, the forecast impact of MFS-Error-BHM is neutral. Experiments are underway now to introduce dt back into the MFS-Error...BHM and quantify forecast impacts at MFS. MFS-SuperEnsemble-BHM We have assembled all needed datasets and completed algorithmic development

Suffering in Silence: Medical Error and its Impact on Health Care Providers.

PubMed

Robertson, Jennifer J; Long, Brit

2018-04-01

All humans are fallible. Because physicians are human, unintentional errors unfortunately occur. While unintentional medical errors have an impact on patients and their families, they may also contribute to adverse mental and emotional effects on the involved provider(s). These may include burnout, lack of concentration, poor work performance, posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, and even suicidality. The objectives of this article are to 1) discuss the impact medical error has on involved provider(s), 2) provide potential reasons why medical error can have a negative impact on provider mental health, and 3) suggest solutions for providers and health care organizations to recognize and mitigate the adverse effects medical error has on providers. Physicians and other providers may feel a variety of adverse emotions after medical error, including guilt, shame, anxiety, fear, and depression. It is thought that the pervasive culture of perfectionism and individual blame in medicine plays a considerable role toward these negative effects. In addition, studies have found that despite physicians' desire for support after medical error, many physicians feel a lack of personal and administrative support. This may further contribute to poor emotional well-being. Potential solutions in the literature are proposed, including provider counseling, learning from mistakes without fear of punishment, discussing mistakes with others, focusing on the system versus the individual, and emphasizing provider wellness. Much of the reviewed literature is limited in terms of an emergency medicine focus or even regarding physicians in general. In addition, most studies are survey- or interview-based, which limits objectivity. While additional, more objective research is needed in terms of mitigating the effects of error on physicians, this review may help provide insight and support for those who feel alone in their attempt to heal after being involved in an adverse medical event. Unintentional medical error will likely always be a part of the medical system. However, by focusing on provider as well as patient health, we may be able to foster resilience in providers and improve care for patients in healthy, safe, and constructive environments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SU-F-T-288: Impact of Trajectory Log Files for Clarkson-Based Independent Dose Verification of IMRT and VMAT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takahashi, R; Kamima, T; Tachibana, H

2016-06-15

Purpose: To investigate the effect of the trajectory files from linear accelerator for Clarkson-based independent dose verification in IMRT and VMAT plans. Methods: A CT-based independent dose verification software (Simple MU Analysis: SMU, Triangle Products, Japan) with a Clarksonbased algorithm was modified to calculate dose using the trajectory log files. Eclipse with the three techniques of step and shoot (SS), sliding window (SW) and Rapid Arc (RA) was used as treatment planning system (TPS). In this study, clinically approved IMRT and VMAT plans for prostate and head and neck (HN) at two institutions were retrospectively analyzed to assess the dosemore » deviation between DICOM-RT plan (PL) and trajectory log file (TJ). An additional analysis was performed to evaluate MLC error detection capability of SMU when the trajectory log files was modified by adding systematic errors (0.2, 0.5, 1.0 mm) and random errors (5, 10, 30 mm) to actual MLC position. Results: The dose deviations for prostate and HN in the two sites were 0.0% and 0.0% in SS, 0.1±0.0%, 0.1±0.1% in SW and 0.6±0.5%, 0.7±0.9% in RA, respectively. The MLC error detection capability shows the plans for HN IMRT were the most sensitive and 0.2 mm of systematic error affected 0.7% dose deviation on average. Effect of the MLC random error did not affect dose error. Conclusion: The use of trajectory log files including actual information of MLC location, gantry angle, etc should be more effective for an independent verification. The tolerance level for the secondary check using the trajectory file may be similar to that of the verification using DICOM-RT plan file. From the view of the resolution of MLC positional error detection, the secondary check could detect the MLC position error corresponding to the treatment sites and techniques. This research is partially supported by Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED)« less

Drought Persistence in Models and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

2017-04-01

Many regions of the world have experienced drought events that persisted several years and caused substantial economic and ecological impacts in the 20th century. However, it remains unclear whether there are significant trends in the frequency or severity of these prolonged drought events. In particular, an important issue is linked to systematic biases in the representation of persistent drought events in climate models, which impedes analysis related to the detection and attribution of drought trends. This study assesses drought persistence errors in global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), in the period of 1901-2010. The model simulations are compared with five gridded observational data products. The analysis focuses on two aspects: the identification of systematic biases in the models and the partitioning of the spread of drought-persistence-error into four possible sources of uncertainty: model uncertainty, observation uncertainty, internal climate variability and the estimation error of drought persistence. We use monthly and yearly dry-to-dry transition probabilities as estimates for drought persistence with drought conditions defined as negative precipitation anomalies. For both time scales we find that most model simulations consistently underestimated drought persistence except in a few regions such as India and Eastern South America. Partitioning the spread of the drought-persistence-error shows that at the monthly time scale model uncertainty and observation uncertainty are dominant, while the contribution from internal variability does play a minor role in most cases. At the yearly scale, the spread of the drought-persistence-error is dominated by the estimation error, indicating that the partitioning is not statistically significant, due to a limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current climate models and highlight the main contributors of uncertainty of drought-persistence-error. Future analyses will focus on investigating the temporal propagation of drought persistence to better understand the causes for the identified errors in the representation of drought persistence in state-of-the-art climate models.

Numerical Analysis of Orbital Perturbation Effects on Inclined Geosynchronous SAR

PubMed Central

Dong, Xichao; Hu, Cheng; Long, Teng; Li, Yuanhao

2016-01-01

The geosynchronous synthetic aperture radar (GEO SAR) is susceptible to orbit perturbations, leading to orbit drifts and variations. The influences behave very differently from those in low Earth orbit (LEO) SAR. In this paper, the impacts of perturbations on GEO SAR orbital elements are modelled based on the perturbed dynamic equations, and then, the focusing is analyzed theoretically and numerically by using the Systems Tool Kit (STK) software. The accurate GEO SAR slant range histories can be calculated according to the perturbed orbit positions in STK. The perturbed slant range errors are mainly the first and second derivatives, leading to image drifts and defocusing. Simulations of the point target imaging are performed to validate the aforementioned analysis. In the GEO SAR with an inclination of 53° and an argument of perigee of 90°, the Doppler parameters and the integration time are different and dependent on the geometry configurations. Thus, the influences are varying at different orbit positions: at the equator, the first-order phase errors should be mainly considered; at the perigee and apogee, the second-order phase errors should be mainly considered; at other positions, first-order and second-order exist simultaneously. PMID:27598168

Randomly correcting model errors in the ARPEGE-Climate v6.1 component of CNRM-CM: applications for seasonal forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batté, Lauriane; Déqué, Michel

2016-06-01

Stochastic methods are increasingly used in global coupled model climate forecasting systems to account for model uncertainties. In this paper, we describe in more detail the stochastic dynamics technique introduced by Batté and Déqué (2012) in the ARPEGE-Climate atmospheric model. We present new results with an updated version of CNRM-CM using ARPEGE-Climate v6.1, and show that the technique can be used both as a means of analyzing model error statistics and accounting for model inadequacies in a seasonal forecasting framework.The perturbations are designed as corrections of model drift errors estimated from a preliminary weakly nudged re-forecast run over an extended reference period of 34 boreal winter seasons. A detailed statistical analysis of these corrections is provided, and shows that they are mainly made of intra-month variance, thereby justifying their use as in-run perturbations of the model in seasonal forecasts. However, the interannual and systematic error correction terms cannot be neglected. Time correlation of the errors is limited, but some consistency is found between the errors of up to 3 consecutive days.These findings encourage us to test several settings of the random draws of perturbations in seasonal forecast mode. Perturbations are drawn randomly but consistently for all three prognostic variables perturbed. We explore the impact of using monthly mean perturbations throughout a given forecast month in a first ensemble re-forecast (SMM, for stochastic monthly means), and test the use of 5-day sequences of perturbations in a second ensemble re-forecast (S5D, for stochastic 5-day sequences). Both experiments are compared in the light of a REF reference ensemble with initial perturbations only. Results in terms of forecast quality are contrasted depending on the region and variable of interest, but very few areas exhibit a clear degradation of forecasting skill with the introduction of stochastic dynamics. We highlight some positive impacts of the method, mainly on Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics. The 500 hPa geopotential height bias is reduced, and improvements project onto the representation of North Atlantic weather regimes. A modest impact on ensemble spread is found over most regions, which suggests that this method could be complemented by other stochastic perturbation techniques in seasonal forecasting mode.

Accounting for sampling variability, injury under-reporting, and sensor error in concussion injury risk curves.

PubMed

Elliott, Michael R; Margulies, Susan S; Maltese, Matthew R; Arbogast, Kristy B

2015-09-18

There has been recent dramatic increase in the use of sensors affixed to the heads or helmets of athletes to measure the biomechanics of head impacts that lead to concussion. The relationship between injury and linear or rotational head acceleration measured by such sensors can be quantified with an injury risk curve. The utility of the injury risk curve relies on the accuracy of both the clinical diagnosis and the biomechanical measure. The focus of our analysis was to demonstrate the influence of three sources of error on the shape and interpretation of concussion injury risk curves: sampling variability associated with a rare event, concussion under-reporting, and sensor measurement error. We utilized Bayesian statistical methods to generate synthetic data from previously published concussion injury risk curves developed using data from helmet-based sensors on collegiate football players and assessed the effect of the three sources of error on the risk relationship. Accounting for sampling variability adds uncertainty or width to the injury risk curve. Assuming a variety of rates of unreported concussions in the non-concussed group, we found that accounting for under-reporting lowers the rotational acceleration required for a given concussion risk. Lastly, after accounting for sensor error, we find strengthened relationships between rotational acceleration and injury risk, further lowering the magnitude of rotational acceleration needed for a given risk of concussion. As more accurate sensors are designed and more sensitive and specific clinical diagnostic tools are introduced, our analysis provides guidance for the future development of comprehensive concussion risk curves. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of State-of-the-Art Mean Sea Surface and Geoid Models of the Arctic Ocean: Implications for Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skourup, Henriette; Farrell, Sinéad Louise; Hendricks, Stefan; Ricker, Robert; Armitage, Thomas W. K.; Ridout, Andy; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Haas, Christian; Baker, Steven

2017-11-01

State-of-the-art Arctic Ocean mean sea surface (MSS) models and global geoid models (GGMs) are used to support sea ice freeboard estimation from satellite altimeters, as well as in oceanographic studies such as mapping sea level anomalies and mean dynamic ocean topography. However, errors in a given model in the high-frequency domain, primarily due to unresolved gravity features, can result in errors in the estimated along-track freeboard. These errors are exacerbated in areas with a sparse lead distribution in consolidated ice pack conditions. Additionally model errors can impact ocean geostrophic currents, derived from satellite altimeter data, while remaining biases in these models may impact longer-term, multisensor oceanographic time series of sea level change in the Arctic. This study focuses on an assessment of five state-of-the-art Arctic MSS models (UCL13/04 and DTU15/13/10) and a commonly used GGM (EGM2008). We describe errors due to unresolved gravity features, intersatellite biases, and remaining satellite orbit errors, and their impact on the derivation of sea ice freeboard. The latest MSS models, incorporating CryoSat-2 sea surface height measurements, show improved definition of gravity features, such as the Gakkel Ridge. The standard deviation between models ranges 0.03-0.25 m. The impact of remaining MSS/GGM errors on freeboard retrieval can reach several decimeters in parts of the Arctic. While the maximum observed freeboard difference found in the central Arctic was 0.59 m (UCL13 MSS minus EGM2008 GGM), the standard deviation in freeboard differences is 0.03-0.06 m.

Approaching Error-Free Customer Satisfaction through Process Change and Feedback Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berglund, Kristin M.; Ludwig, Timothy D.

2009-01-01

Employee-based errors result in quality defects that can often impact customer satisfaction. This study examined the effects of a process change and feedback system intervention on error rates of 3 teams of retail furniture distribution warehouse workers. Archival records of error codes were analyzed and aggregated as the measure of quality. The…

The cost of adherence mismeasurement in serious mental illness: a claims-based analysis.

PubMed

Shafrin, Jason; Forma, Felicia; Scherer, Ethan; Hatch, Ainslie; Vytlacil, Edward; Lakdawalla, Darius

2017-05-01

To quantify how adherence mismeasurement affects the estimated impact of adherence on inpatient costs among patients with serious mental illness (SMI). Proportion of days covered (PDC) is a common claims-based measure of medication adherence. Because PDC does not measure medication ingestion, however, it may inaccurately measure adherence. We derived a formula to correct the bias that occurs in adherence-utilization studies resulting from errors in claims-based measures of adherence. We conducted a literature review to identify the correlation between gold-standard and claims-based adherence measures. We derived a bias-correction methodology to address claims-based medication adherence measurement error. We then applied this methodology to a case study of patients with SMI who initiated atypical antipsychotics in 2 large claims databases. Our literature review identified 6 studies of interest. The 4 most relevant ones measured correlations between 0.38 and 0.91. Our preferred estimate implies that the effect of adherence on inpatient spending estimated from claims data would understate the true effect by a factor of 5.3, if there were no other sources of bias. Although our procedure corrects for measurement error, such error also may amplify or mitigate other potential biases. For instance, if adherent patients are healthier than nonadherent ones, measurement error makes the resulting bias worse. On the other hand, if adherent patients are sicker, measurement error mitigates the other bias. Measurement error due to claims-based adherence measures is worth addressing, alongside other more widely emphasized sources of bias in inference.

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Cross Section Sensitivity and Propagated Errors in HZE Exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinbockel, John H.; Wilson, John W.; Blatnig, Steve R.; Qualls, Garry D.; Badavi, Francis F.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2005-01-01

It has long been recognized that galactic cosmic rays are of such high energy that they tend to pass through available shielding materials resulting in exposure of astronauts and equipment within space vehicles and habitats. Any protection provided by shielding materials result not so much from stopping such particles but by changing their physical character in interaction with shielding material nuclei forming, hopefully, less dangerous species. Clearly, the fidelity of the nuclear cross-sections is essential to correct specification of shield design and sensitivity to cross-section error is important in guiding experimental validation of cross-section models and database. We examine the Boltzmann transport equation which is used to calculate dose equivalent during solar minimum, with units (cSv/yr), associated with various depths of shielding materials. The dose equivalent is a weighted sum of contributions from neutrons, protons, light ions, medium ions and heavy ions. We investigate the sensitivity of dose equivalent calculations due to errors in nuclear fragmentation cross-sections. We do this error analysis for all possible projectile-fragment combinations (14,365 such combinations) to estimate the sensitivity of the shielding calculations to errors in the nuclear fragmentation cross-sections. Numerical differentiation with respect to the cross-sections will be evaluated in a broad class of materials including polyethylene, aluminum and copper. We will identify the most important cross-sections for further experimental study and evaluate their impact on propagated errors in shielding estimates.

Swath-altimetry measurements of the main stem Amazon River: measurement errors and hydraulic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, M. D.; Durand, M.; Jung, H. C.; Alsdorf, D.

2015-04-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, scheduled for launch in 2020, will provide a step-change improvement in the measurement of terrestrial surface-water storage and dynamics. In particular, it will provide the first, routine two-dimensional measurements of water-surface elevations. In this paper, we aimed to (i) characterise and illustrate in two dimensions the errors which may be found in SWOT swath measurements of terrestrial surface water, (ii) simulate the spatio-temporal sampling scheme of SWOT for the Amazon, and (iii) assess the impact of each of these on estimates of water-surface slope and river discharge which may be obtained from SWOT imagery. We based our analysis on a virtual mission for a ~260 km reach of the central Amazon (Solimões) River, using a hydraulic model to provide water-surface elevations according to SWOT spatio-temporal sampling to which errors were added based on a two-dimensional height error spectrum derived from the SWOT design requirements. We thereby obtained water-surface elevation measurements for the Amazon main stem as may be observed by SWOT. Using these measurements, we derived estimates of river slope and discharge and compared them to those obtained directly from the hydraulic model. We found that cross-channel and along-reach averaging of SWOT measurements using reach lengths greater than 4 km for the Solimões and 7.5 km for Purus reduced the effect of systematic height errors, enabling discharge to be reproduced accurately from the water height, assuming known bathymetry and friction. Using cross-sectional averaging and 20 km reach lengths, results show Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency values of 0.99 for the Solimões and 0.88 for the Purus, with 2.6 and 19.1 % average overall error in discharge, respectively. We extend the results to other rivers worldwide and infer that SWOT-derived discharge estimates may be more accurate for rivers with larger channel widths (permitting a greater level of cross-sectional averaging and the use of shorter reach lengths) and higher water-surface slopes (reducing the proportional impact of slope errors on discharge calculation).

Effect of Body Mass Index on Magnitude of Setup Errors in Patients Treated With Adjuvant Radiotherapy for Endometrial Cancer With Daily Image Guidance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Lilie L., E-mail: lin@uphs.upenn.edu; Hertan, Lauren; Rengan, Ramesh

2012-06-01

Purpose: To determine the impact of body mass index (BMI) on daily setup variations and frequency of imaging necessary for patients with endometrial cancer treated with adjuvant intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with daily image guidance. Methods and Materials: The daily shifts from a total of 782 orthogonal kilovoltage images from 30 patients who received pelvic IMRT between July 2008 and August 2010 were analyzed. The BMI, mean daily shifts, and random and systematic errors in each translational and rotational direction were calculated for each patient. Margin recipes were generated based on BMI. Linear regression and spearman rank correlation analysis were performed.more » To simulate a less-than-daily IGRT protocol, the average shift of the first five fractions was applied to subsequent setups without IGRT for assessing the impact on setup error and margin requirements. Results: Median BMI was 32.9 (range, 23-62). Of the 30 patients, 16.7% (n = 5) were normal weight (BMI <25); 23.3% (n = 7) were overweight (BMI {>=}25 to <30); 26.7% (n = 8) were mildly obese (BMI {>=}30 to <35); and 33.3% (n = 10) were moderately to severely obese (BMI {>=} 35). On linear regression, mean absolute vertical, longitudinal, and lateral shifts positively correlated with BMI (p = 0.0127, p = 0.0037, and p < 0.0001, respectively). Systematic errors in the longitudinal and vertical direction were found to be positively correlated with BMI category (p < 0.0001 for both). IGRT for the first five fractions, followed by correction of the mean error for all subsequent fractions, led to a substantial reduction in setup error and resultant margin requirement overall compared with no IGRT. Conclusions: Daily shifts, systematic errors, and margin requirements were greatest in obese patients. For women who are normal or overweight, a planning target margin margin of 7 to 10 mm may be sufficient without IGRT, but for patients who are moderately or severely obese, this is insufficient.« less

The relationship between external and local governance systems: the case of health care associated infections and medication errors in one NHS trust.

PubMed

Ramsay, Angus; Magnusson, Carin; Fulop, Naomi

2010-12-01

'Organisational governance'--the systems, processes, behaviours and cultures by which an organisation leads and controls its functions to achieve its objectives--is seen as an important influence on patient safety. The features of 'good' governance remain to be established, partly because the relationship between governance and safety requires more investigation. To describe external governance systems--for example, national targets and regulatory bodies--and an NHS Trust's formal governance systems for Health Care Associated Infections (HCAIs) and medication errors; to consider the relationships between these systems. External governance systems and formal internal governance systems for both medication errors and HCAIs were analysed based on documentary analysis and interviews with relevant hospital staff. Nationally, HCAIs appeared to be a higher priority than medication errors, reflected in national targets and the focus of regulatory bodies. Locally, HCAIs were found to be the focus of committees at all levels of the organisation and, unlike medication errors, a central component of the Trust's performance management system; medication errors were discussed in appropriate governance committees, but most governance of medication errors took place at divisional or ward level. The data suggest a relationship between national and local prioritisation of the safety issues examined: national targets on HCAIs influence the behaviour of regulators and professional organisations; and these, in turn, have a significant impact on Trust activity. A contributory factor might be that HCAIs are more amenable to measurement than medication errors, meaning HCAIs lend themselves better to target-setting.

Error reduction in three-dimensional metrology combining optical and touch probe data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerde, Janice R.; Christens-Barry, William A.

2010-08-01

Analysis of footwear under the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) is partly based on identifying the boundary ("parting line") between the "external surface area upper" (ESAU) and the sample's sole. Often, that boundary is obscured. We establish the parting line as the curved intersection between the sample outer surface and its insole surface. The outer surface is determined by discrete point cloud coordinates obtained using a laser scanner. The insole surface is defined by point cloud data, obtained using a touch probe device-a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). Because these point cloud data sets do not overlap spatially, a polynomial surface is fitted to the insole data and extended to intersect a mesh fitted to the outer surface point cloud. This line of intersection defines the ESAU boundary, permitting further fractional area calculations to proceed. The defined parting line location is sensitive to the polynomial used to fit experimental data. Extrapolation to the intersection with the ESAU can heighten this sensitivity. We discuss a methodology for transforming these data into a common reference frame. Three scenarios are considered: measurement error in point cloud coordinates, from fitting a polynomial surface to a point cloud then extrapolating beyond the data set, and error from reference frame transformation. These error sources can influence calculated surface areas. We describe experiments to assess error magnitude, the sensitivity of calculated results on these errors, and minimizing error impact on calculated quantities. Ultimately, we must ensure that statistical error from these procedures is minimized and within acceptance criteria.

Evaluation and testing of image quality of the Space Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jilong; Yi, Zhong; Zhou, Shuhong; Yu, Qian; Hou, Yinlong; Wang, Shanshan

2018-01-01

For the space solar extreme ultraviolet telescope, the star point test can not be performed in the x-ray band (19.5nm band) as there is not light source of bright enough. In this paper, the point spread function of the optical system is calculated to evaluate the imaging performance of the telescope system. Combined with the actual processing surface error, such as small grinding head processing and magnetorheological processing, the optical design software Zemax and data analysis software Matlab are used to directly calculate the system point spread function of the space solar extreme ultraviolet telescope. Matlab codes are programmed to generate the required surface error grid data. These surface error data is loaded to the specified surface of the telescope system by using the communication technique of DDE (Dynamic Data Exchange), which is used to connect Zemax and Matlab. As the different processing methods will lead to surface error with different size, distribution and spatial frequency, the impact of imaging is also different. Therefore, the characteristics of the surface error of different machining methods are studied. Combining with its position in the optical system and simulation its influence on the image quality, it is of great significance to reasonably choose the processing technology. Additionally, we have also analyzed the relationship between the surface error and the image quality evaluation. In order to ensure the final processing of the mirror to meet the requirements of the image quality, we should choose one or several methods to evaluate the surface error according to the different spatial frequency characteristics of the surface error.

Ion diffusion may introduce spurious current sources in current-source density (CSD) analysis.

PubMed

Halnes, Geir; Mäki-Marttunen, Tuomo; Pettersen, Klas H; Andreassen, Ole A; Einevoll, Gaute T

2017-07-01

Current-source density (CSD) analysis is a well-established method for analyzing recorded local field potentials (LFPs), that is, the low-frequency part of extracellular potentials. Standard CSD theory is based on the assumption that all extracellular currents are purely ohmic, and thus neglects the possible impact from ionic diffusion on recorded potentials. However, it has previously been shown that in physiological conditions with large ion-concentration gradients, diffusive currents can evoke slow shifts in extracellular potentials. Using computer simulations, we here show that diffusion-evoked potential shifts can introduce errors in standard CSD analysis, and can lead to prediction of spurious current sources. Further, we here show that the diffusion-evoked prediction errors can be removed by using an improved CSD estimator which accounts for concentration-dependent effects. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Standard CSD analysis does not account for ionic diffusion. Using biophysically realistic computer simulations, we show that unaccounted-for diffusive currents can lead to the prediction of spurious current sources. This finding may be of strong interest for in vivo electrophysiologists doing extracellular recordings in general, and CSD analysis in particular. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Error analysis of mathematical problems on TIMSS: A case of Indonesian secondary students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priyani, H. A.; Ekawati, R.

2018-01-01

Indonesian students’ competence in solving mathematical problems is still considered as weak. It was pointed out by the results of international assessment such as TIMSS. This might be caused by various types of errors made. Hence, this study aimed at identifying students’ errors in solving mathematical problems in TIMSS in the topic of numbers that considered as the fundamental concept in Mathematics. This study applied descriptive qualitative analysis. The subject was three students with most errors in the test indicators who were taken from 34 students of 8th graders. Data was obtained through paper and pencil test and student’s’ interview. The error analysis indicated that in solving Applying level problem, the type of error that students made was operational errors. In addition, for reasoning level problem, there are three types of errors made such as conceptual errors, operational errors and principal errors. Meanwhile, analysis of the causes of students’ errors showed that students did not comprehend the mathematical problems given.

The Presence or Absence of Definiteness in the Native Language and Its Impact on ESL Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abu-Melhim Abdel-Rahman

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if first language interference does play a significant role in the use of articles in English by native speakers of Arabic as compared to other ESL learners. An error analysis was conducted on the use of English articles in essays taken from two groups of advanced ESL learners. The essays were composed by…

Impact of gradient timing error on the tissue sodium concentration bioscale measured using flexible twisted projection imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Aiming; Atkinson, Ian C.; Vaughn, J. Thomas; Thulborn, Keith R.

2011-12-01

The rapid biexponential transverse relaxation of the sodium MR signal from brain tissue requires efficient k-space sampling for quantitative imaging in a time that is acceptable for human subjects. The flexible twisted projection imaging (flexTPI) sequence has been shown to be suitable for quantitative sodium imaging with an ultra-short echo time to minimize signal loss. The fidelity of the k-space center location is affected by the readout gradient timing errors on the three physical axes, which is known to cause image distortion for projection-based acquisitions. This study investigated the impact of these timing errors on the voxel-wise accuracy of the tissue sodium concentration (TSC) bioscale measured with the flexTPI sequence. Our simulations show greater than 20% spatially varying quantification errors when the gradient timing errors are larger than 10 μs on all three axes. The quantification is more tolerant of gradient timing errors on the Z-axis. An existing method was used to measure the gradient timing errors with <1 μs error. The gradient timing error measurement is shown to be RF coil dependent, and timing error differences of up to ˜16 μs have been observed between different RF coils used on the same scanner. The measured timing errors can be corrected prospectively or retrospectively to obtain accurate TSC values.

A large-area, spatially continuous assessment of land cover map error and its impact on downstream analyses.

PubMed

Estes, Lyndon; Chen, Peng; Debats, Stephanie; Evans, Tom; Ferreira, Stefanus; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Ragazzo, Gabrielle; Sheffield, Justin; Wolf, Adam; Wood, Eric; Caylor, Kelly

2018-01-01

Land cover maps increasingly underlie research into socioeconomic and environmental patterns and processes, including global change. It is known that map errors impact our understanding of these phenomena, but quantifying these impacts is difficult because many areas lack adequate reference data. We used a highly accurate, high-resolution map of South African cropland to assess (1) the magnitude of error in several current generation land cover maps, and (2) how these errors propagate in downstream studies. We first quantified pixel-wise errors in the cropland classes of four widely used land cover maps at resolutions ranging from 1 to 100 km, and then calculated errors in several representative "downstream" (map-based) analyses, including assessments of vegetative carbon stocks, evapotranspiration, crop production, and household food security. We also evaluated maps' spatial accuracy based on how precisely they could be used to locate specific landscape features. We found that cropland maps can have substantial biases and poor accuracy at all resolutions (e.g., at 1 km resolution, up to ∼45% underestimates of cropland (bias) and nearly 50% mean absolute error (MAE, describing accuracy); at 100 km, up to 15% underestimates and nearly 20% MAE). National-scale maps derived from higher-resolution imagery were most accurate, followed by multi-map fusion products. Constraining mapped values to match survey statistics may be effective at minimizing bias (provided the statistics are accurate). Errors in downstream analyses could be substantially amplified or muted, depending on the values ascribed to cropland-adjacent covers (e.g., with forest as adjacent cover, carbon map error was 200%-500% greater than in input cropland maps, but ∼40% less for sparse cover types). The average locational error was 6 km (600%). These findings provide deeper insight into the causes and potential consequences of land cover map error, and suggest several recommendations for land cover map users. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Advanced error diagnostics of the CMAQ and Chimere modelling systems within the AQMEII3 model evaluation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solazzo, Efisio; Hogrefe, Christian; Colette, Augustin; Garcia-Vivanco, Marta; Galmarini, Stefano

2017-09-01

The work here complements the overview analysis of the modelling systems participating in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3) by focusing on the performance for hourly surface ozone by two modelling systems, Chimere for Europe and CMAQ for North America. The evaluation strategy outlined in the course of the three phases of the AQMEII activity, aimed to build up a diagnostic methodology for model evaluation, is pursued here and novel diagnostic methods are proposed. In addition to evaluating the base case simulation in which all model components are configured in their standard mode, the analysis also makes use of sensitivity simulations in which the models have been applied by altering and/or zeroing lateral boundary conditions, emissions of anthropogenic precursors, and ozone dry deposition. To help understand of the causes of model deficiencies, the error components (bias, variance, and covariance) of the base case and of the sensitivity runs are analysed in conjunction with timescale considerations and error modelling using the available error fields of temperature, wind speed, and NOx concentration. The results reveal the effectiveness and diagnostic power of the methods devised (which remains the main scope of this study), allowing the detection of the timescale and the fields that the two models are most sensitive to. The representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics is pivotal to both models. In particular, (i) the fluctuations slower than ˜ 1.5 days account for 70-85 % of the mean square error of the full (undecomposed) ozone time series; (ii) a recursive, systematic error with daily periodicity is detected, responsible for 10-20 % of the quadratic total error; (iii) errors in representing the timing of the daily transition between stability regimes in the PBL are responsible for a covariance error as large as 9 ppb (as much as the standard deviation of the network-average ozone observations in summer in both Europe and North America); (iv) the CMAQ ozone error has a weak/negligible dependence on the errors in NO2, while the error in NO2 significantly impacts the ozone error produced by Chimere; (v) the response of the models to variations of anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions show a pronounced spatial heterogeneity, while the seasonal variability of the response is found to be less marked. Only during the winter season does the zeroing of boundary values for North America produce a spatially uniform deterioration of the model accuracy across the majority of the continent.

Error Propagation Analysis in the SAE Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) and the EDICT Tool Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaValley, Brian W.; Little, Phillip D.; Walter, Chris J.

2011-01-01

This report documents the capabilities of the EDICT tools for error modeling and error propagation analysis when operating with models defined in the Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL). We discuss our experience using the EDICT error analysis capabilities on a model of the Scalable Processor-Independent Design for Enhanced Reliability (SPIDER) architecture that uses the Reliable Optical Bus (ROBUS). Based on these experiences we draw some initial conclusions about model based design techniques for error modeling and analysis of highly reliable computing architectures.

Estimation of Separation Buffers for Wind-Prediction Error in an Airborne Separation Assistance System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Hoadley, Sherwood T.; Allen, B. Danette

2009-01-01

Wind prediction errors are known to affect the performance of automated air traffic management tools that rely on aircraft trajectory predictions. In particular, automated separation assurance tools, planned as part of the NextGen concept of operations, must be designed to account and compensate for the impact of wind prediction errors and other system uncertainties. In this paper we describe a high fidelity batch simulation study designed to estimate the separation distance required to compensate for the effects of wind-prediction errors throughout increasing traffic density on an airborne separation assistance system. These experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assurance systems. In this experiment, wind-prediction errors were varied between zero and forty knots while traffic density was increased several times current traffic levels. In order to accurately measure the full unmitigated impact of wind-prediction errors, no uncertainty buffers were added to the separation minima. The goal of the study was to measure the impact of wind-prediction errors in order to estimate the additional separation buffers necessary to preserve separation and to provide a baseline for future analyses. Buffer estimations from this study will be used and verified in upcoming safety evaluation experiments under similar simulation conditions. Results suggest that the strategic airborne separation functions exercised in this experiment can sustain wind prediction errors up to 40kts at current day air traffic density with no additional separation distance buffer and at eight times the current day with no more than a 60% increase in separation distance buffer.

Interventions to reduce medication errors in neonatal care: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Minh-Nha Rhylie; Mosel, Cassandra

2017-01-01

Background: Medication errors represent a significant but often preventable cause of morbidity and mortality in neonates. The objective of this systematic review was to determine the effectiveness of interventions to reduce neonatal medication errors. Methods: A systematic review was undertaken of all comparative and noncomparative studies published in any language, identified from searches of PubMed and EMBASE and reference-list checking. Eligible studies were those investigating the impact of any medication safety interventions aimed at reducing medication errors in neonates in the hospital setting. Results: A total of 102 studies were identified that met the inclusion criteria, including 86 comparative and 16 noncomparative studies. Medication safety interventions were classified into six themes: technology (n = 38; e.g. electronic prescribing), organizational (n = 16; e.g. guidelines, policies, and procedures), personnel (n = 13; e.g. staff education), pharmacy (n = 9; e.g. clinical pharmacy service), hazard and risk analysis (n = 8; e.g. error detection tools), and multifactorial (n = 18; e.g. any combination of previous interventions). Significant variability was evident across all included studies, with differences in intervention strategies, trial methods, types of medication errors evaluated, and how medication errors were identified and evaluated. Most studies demonstrated an appreciable risk of bias. The vast majority of studies (>90%) demonstrated a reduction in medication errors. A similar median reduction of 50–70% in medication errors was evident across studies included within each of the identified themes, but findings varied considerably from a 16% increase in medication errors to a 100% reduction in medication errors. Conclusion: While neonatal medication errors can be reduced through multiple interventions aimed at improving the medication use process, no single intervention appeared clearly superior. Further research is required to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of the various medication safety interventions to facilitate decisions regarding uptake and implementation into clinical practice. PMID:29387337

New Radiosonde Temperature Bias Adjustments for Potential NWP Applications Based on GPS RO Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, B.; Reale, A.; Ballish, B.; Seidel, D. J.

2014-12-01

Conventional radiosonde observations (RAOBs), along with satellite and other in situ data, are assimilated in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to generate a forecast. Radiosonde temperature observations, however, have solar and thermal radiation induced biases (typically a warm daytime bias from sunlight heating the sensor and a cold bias at night as the sensor emits longwave radiation). Radiation corrections made at stations based on algorithms provided by radiosonde manufacturers or national meteorological agencies may not be adequate, so biases remain. To adjust these biases, NWP centers may make additional adjustments to radiosonde data. However, the radiation correction (RADCOR) schemes used in the NOAA NCEP data assimilation and forecasting system is outdated and does not cover several widely-used contemporary radiosonde types. This study focuses on work whose objective is to improve these corrections and test their impacts on the NWP forecasting and analysis. GPS Radio Occultation (RO) dry temperature (Tdry) is considered to be highly accurate in the upper troposphere and low stratosphere where atmospheric water vapor is negligible. This study uses GPS RO Tdry from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) as the reference to quantify the radiation induced RAOB temperature errors by analyzing ~ 3-yr collocated RAOB and COSMIC GPS RO data compile by the NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS). The new radiation adjustments are developed for different solar angle categories and for all common sonde types flown in the WMO global operational upper air network. Results for global and several commonly used sondes are presented in the context of NCEP Global Forecast System observation-minus-background analysis, indicating projected impacts in reducing forecast error. Dedicated NWP impact studies to quantify the impact of the new RADCOR schemes on the NCEP analyses and forecast are under consideration.

Gender differences in promotion and scholarly impact: an analysis of 1460 academic ophthalmologists.

PubMed

Lopez, Santiago A; Svider, Peter F; Misra, Poonam; Bhagat, Neelakshi; Langer, Paul D; Eloy, Jean Anderson

2014-01-01

In recent years, gender differences in academic promotion have been documented within surgical fields. To the best of our knowledge, gender discrepancies in association with scholarly productivity have not been well assessed among academic ophthalmologists. Because research productivity is strongly associated with academic career advancement, we sought to determine whether gender differences in scholarly impact, measured by the h-index, exist among academic ophthalmologists. Academic rank and gender were determined using faculty listings from academic ophthalmology departments. h-index and publication experience (in years) of faculty members were determined using the Scopus database. Academic medical center. From assistant professor through professor, the h-index increased with subsequent academic rank (p < 0.001), although between chairpersons and professors no statistical difference was found (p > 0.05). Overall, men had higher h-indices (h = 10.4 ± 0.34 standard error of mean) than women (h = 6.0 ± 0.38 standard error of mean), a finding that was only statistically significant among assistant professors in a subgroup analysis. Women were generally underrepresented among senior positions. When controlling for publication range (i.e., length of time publishing), men had higher h-indices among those with 1 to 10 years of publication experience (p < 0.0001), whereas women had scholarly impact equivalent to and even exceeding that of men later in their careers. Women in academic ophthalmology continue to be underrepresented among senior faculty. Although women surpass men in scholarly productivity during the later stages of their careers, low scholarly impact during the earlier stages may impede academic advancement and partly explain the gender disparity in senior academic positions. Copyright © 2014 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mechanical properties of silicate glasses exposed to a low-Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiedlocher, David E.; Tucker, Dennis S.; Nichols, Ron; Kinser, Donald L.

1992-01-01

The effects of a 5.8 year exposure to low earth orbit environment upon the mechanical properties of commercial optical fused silica, low iron soda-lime-silica, Pyrex 7740, Vycor 7913, BK-7, and the glass ceramic Zerodur were examined. Mechanical testing employed the ASTM-F-394 piston on 3-ball method in a liquid nitrogen environment. Samples were exposed on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in two locations. Impacts were observed on all specimens except Vycor. Weibull analysis as well as a standard statistical evaluation were conducted. The Weibull analysis revealed no differences between control samples and the two exposed samples. We thus concluded that radiation components of the Earth orbital environment did not degrade the mechanical strength of the samples examined within the limits of experimental error. The upper bound of strength degradation for meteorite impacted samples based upon statistical analysis and observation was 50 percent.

Self-Reported and Observed Punitive Parenting Prospectively Predicts Increased Error-Related Brain Activity in Six-Year-Old Children.

PubMed

Meyer, Alexandria; Proudfit, Greg Hajcak; Bufferd, Sara J; Kujawa, Autumn J; Laptook, Rebecca S; Torpey, Dana C; Klein, Daniel N

2015-07-01

The error-related negativity (ERN) is a negative deflection in the event-related potential (ERP) occurring approximately 50 ms after error commission at fronto-central electrode sites and is thought to reflect the activation of a generic error monitoring system. Several studies have reported an increased ERN in clinically anxious children, and suggest that anxious children are more sensitive to error commission--although the mechanisms underlying this association are not clear. We have previously found that punishing errors results in a larger ERN, an effect that persists after punishment ends. It is possible that learning-related experiences that impact sensitivity to errors may lead to an increased ERN. In particular, punitive parenting might sensitize children to errors and increase their ERN. We tested this possibility in the current study by prospectively examining the relationship between parenting style during early childhood and children's ERN approximately 3 years later. Initially, 295 parents and children (approximately 3 years old) participated in a structured observational measure of parenting behavior, and parents completed a self-report measure of parenting style. At a follow-up assessment approximately 3 years later, the ERN was elicited during a Go/No-Go task, and diagnostic interviews were completed with parents to assess child psychopathology. Results suggested that both observational measures of hostile parenting and self-report measures of authoritarian parenting style uniquely predicted a larger ERN in children 3 years later. We previously reported that children in this sample with anxiety disorders were characterized by an increased ERN. A mediation analysis indicated that ERN magnitude mediated the relationship between harsh parenting and child anxiety disorder. Results suggest that parenting may shape children's error processing through environmental conditioning and thereby risk for anxiety, although future work is needed to confirm this hypothesis.

A Neural Network/Acoustic Emission Analysis of Impact Damaged Graphite/Epoxy Pressure Vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, James L.; Hill, Erik v. K.; Workman, Gary L.; Russell, Samuel S.

1995-01-01

Acoustic emission (AE) signal analysis has been used to measure the effects of impact damage on burst pressure in 5.75 inch diameter, inert propellant filled, filament wound pressure vessels. The AE data were collected from fifteen graphite/epoxy pressure vessels featuring five damage states and three resin systems. A burst pressure prediction model was developed by correlating the AE amplitude (frequency) distribution, generated during the first pressure ramp to 800 psig (approximately 25% of the average expected burst pressure for an undamaged vessel) to known burst pressures using a four layered back propagation neural network. The neural network, trained on three vessels from each resin system, was able to predict burst pressures with a worst case error of 5.7% for the entire fifteen bottle set.

A theoretical basis for the analysis of redundant software subject to coincident errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckhardt, D. E., Jr.; Lee, L. D.

1985-01-01

Fundamental to the development of redundant software techniques fault-tolerant software, is an understanding of the impact of multiple-joint occurrences of coincident errors. A theoretical basis for the study of redundant software is developed which provides a probabilistic framework for empirically evaluating the effectiveness of the general (N-Version) strategy when component versions are subject to coincident errors, and permits an analytical study of the effects of these errors. The basic assumptions of the model are: (1) independently designed software components are chosen in a random sample; and (2) in the user environment, the system is required to execute on a stationary input series. The intensity of coincident errors, has a central role in the model. This function describes the propensity to introduce design faults in such a way that software components fail together when executing in the user environment. The model is used to give conditions under which an N-Version system is a better strategy for reducing system failure probability than relying on a single version of software. A condition which limits the effectiveness of a fault-tolerant strategy is studied, and it is posted whether system failure probability varies monotonically with increasing N or whether an optimal choice of N exists.

Accurate Sample Assignment in a Multiplexed, Ultrasensitive, High-Throughput Sequencing Assay for Minimal Residual Disease.

PubMed

Bartram, Jack; Mountjoy, Edward; Brooks, Tony; Hancock, Jeremy; Williamson, Helen; Wright, Gary; Moppett, John; Goulden, Nick; Hubank, Mike

2016-07-01

High-throughput sequencing (HTS) (next-generation sequencing) of the rearranged Ig and T-cell receptor genes promises to be less expensive and more sensitive than current methods of monitoring minimal residual disease (MRD) in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. However, the adoption of new approaches by clinical laboratories requires careful evaluation of all potential sources of error and the development of strategies to ensure the highest accuracy. Timely and efficient clinical use of HTS platforms will depend on combining multiple samples (multiplexing) in each sequencing run. Here we examine the Ig heavy-chain gene HTS on the Illumina MiSeq platform for MRD. We identify errors associated with multiplexing that could potentially impact the accuracy of MRD analysis. We optimize a strategy that combines high-purity, sequence-optimized oligonucleotides, dual indexing, and an error-aware demultiplexing approach to minimize errors and maximize sensitivity. We present a probability-based, demultiplexing pipeline Error-Aware Demultiplexer that is suitable for all MiSeq strategies and accurately assigns samples to the correct identifier without excessive loss of data. Finally, using controls quantified by digital PCR, we show that HTS-MRD can accurately detect as few as 1 in 10(6) copies of specific leukemic MRD. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

BATMAN: Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, J.; Ascasibar, Y.; García-Benito, R.; Guidi, G.; Choudhury, O. S.; Bellocchi, E.; Sánchez, S. F.; Díaz, A. I.

2017-04-01

This paper describes the Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis (BATMAN), a novel image-segmentation technique based on Bayesian statistics that characterizes any astronomical data set containing spatial information and performs a tessellation based on the measurements and errors provided as input. The algorithm iteratively merges spatial elements as long as they are statistically consistent with carrying the same information (I.e. identical signal within the errors). We illustrate its operation and performance with a set of test cases including both synthetic and real integral-field spectroscopic data. The output segmentations adapt to the underlying spatial structure, regardless of its morphology and/or the statistical properties of the noise. The quality of the recovered signal represents an improvement with respect to the input, especially in regions with low signal-to-noise ratio. However, the algorithm may be sensitive to small-scale random fluctuations, and its performance in presence of spatial gradients is limited. Due to these effects, errors may be underestimated by as much as a factor of 2. Our analysis reveals that the algorithm prioritizes conservation of all the statistically significant information over noise reduction, and that the precise choice of the input data has a crucial impact on the results. Hence, the philosophy of BaTMAn is not to be used as a 'black box' to improve the signal-to-noise ratio, but as a new approach to characterize spatially resolved data prior to its analysis. The source code is publicly available at http://astro.ft.uam.es/SELGIFS/BaTMAn.

The NRL relocatable ocean/acoustic ensemble forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowley, C.; Martin, P.; Cummings, J.; Jacobs, G.; Coelho, E.; Bishop, C.; Hong, X.; Peggion, G.; Fabre, J.

2009-04-01

A globally relocatable regional ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed to support rapid implementation of new regional forecast domains. The system is in operational use at the Naval Oceanographic Office for a growing number of regional and coastal implementations. The new system is the basis for an ocean acoustic ensemble forecast and adaptive sampling capability. We present an overview of the forecast system and the ocean ensemble and adaptive sampling methods. The forecast system consists of core ocean data analysis and forecast modules, software for domain configuration, surface and boundary condition forcing processing, and job control, and global databases for ocean climatology, bathymetry, tides, and river locations and transports. The analysis component is the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system, a 3D multivariate optimum interpolation system that produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, geopotential, and vector velocity using remotely-sensed SST, SSH, and sea ice concentration, plus in situ observations of temperature, salinity, and currents from ships, buoys, XBTs, CTDs, profiling floats, and autonomous gliders. The forecast component is the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). The system supports one-way nesting and multiple assimilation methods. The ensemble system uses the ensemble transform technique with error variance estimates from the NCODA analysis to represent initial condition error. Perturbed surface forcing or an atmospheric ensemble is used to represent errors in surface forcing. The ensemble transform Kalman filter is used to assess the impact of adaptive observations on future analysis and forecast uncertainty for both ocean and acoustic properties.

What errors do peer reviewers detect, and does training improve their ability to detect them?

PubMed

Schroter, Sara; Black, Nick; Evans, Stephen; Godlee, Fiona; Osorio, Lyda; Smith, Richard

2008-10-01

To analyse data from a trial and report the frequencies with which major and minor errors are detected at a general medical journal, the types of errors missed and the impact of training on error detection. 607 peer reviewers at the BMJ were randomized to two intervention groups receiving different types of training (face-to-face training or a self-taught package) and a control group. Each reviewer was sent the same three test papers over the study period, each of which had nine major and five minor methodological errors inserted. BMJ peer reviewers. The quality of review, assessed using a validated instrument, and the number and type of errors detected before and after training. The number of major errors detected varied over the three papers. The interventions had small effects. At baseline (Paper 1) reviewers found an average of 2.58 of the nine major errors, with no notable difference between the groups. The mean number of errors reported was similar for the second and third papers, 2.71 and 3.0, respectively. Biased randomization was the error detected most frequently in all three papers, with over 60% of reviewers rejecting the papers identifying this error. Reviewers who did not reject the papers found fewer errors and the proportion finding biased randomization was less than 40% for each paper. Editors should not assume that reviewers will detect most major errors, particularly those concerned with the context of study. Short training packages have only a slight impact on improving error detection.

A Quality Improvement Project to Decrease Human Milk Errors in the NICU.

PubMed

Oza-Frank, Reena; Kachoria, Rashmi; Dail, James; Green, Jasmine; Walls, Krista; McClead, Richard E

2017-02-01

Ensuring safe human milk in the NICU is a complex process with many potential points for error, of which one of the most serious is administration of the wrong milk to the wrong infant. Our objective was to describe a quality improvement initiative that was associated with a reduction in human milk administration errors identified over a 6-year period in a typical, large NICU setting. We employed a quasi-experimental time series quality improvement initiative by using tools from the model for improvement, Six Sigma methodology, and evidence-based interventions. Scanned errors were identified from the human milk barcode medication administration system. Scanned errors of interest were wrong-milk-to-wrong-infant, expired-milk, or preparation errors. The scanned error rate and the impact of additional improvement interventions from 2009 to 2015 were monitored by using statistical process control charts. From 2009 to 2015, the total number of errors scanned declined from 97.1 per 1000 bottles to 10.8. Specifically, the number of expired milk error scans declined from 84.0 per 1000 bottles to 8.9. The number of preparation errors (4.8 per 1000 bottles to 2.2) and wrong-milk-to-wrong-infant errors scanned (8.3 per 1000 bottles to 2.0) also declined. By reducing the number of errors scanned, the number of opportunities for errors also decreased. Interventions that likely had the greatest impact on reducing the number of scanned errors included installation of bedside (versus centralized) scanners and dedicated staff to handle milk. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

An investigation of the usability of sound recognition for source separation of packaging wastes in reverse vending machines.

PubMed

Korucu, M Kemal; Kaplan, Özgür; Büyük, Osman; Güllü, M Kemal

2016-10-01

In this study, we investigate the usability of sound recognition for source separation of packaging wastes in reverse vending machines (RVMs). For this purpose, an experimental setup equipped with a sound recording mechanism was prepared. Packaging waste sounds generated by three physical impacts such as free falling, pneumatic hitting and hydraulic crushing were separately recorded using two different microphones. To classify the waste types and sizes based on sound features of the wastes, a support vector machine (SVM) and a hidden Markov model (HMM) based sound classification systems were developed. In the basic experimental setup in which only free falling impact type was considered, SVM and HMM systems provided 100% classification accuracy for both microphones. In the expanded experimental setup which includes all three impact types, material type classification accuracies were 96.5% for dynamic microphone and 97.7% for condenser microphone. When both the material type and the size of the wastes were classified, the accuracy was 88.6% for the microphones. The modeling studies indicated that hydraulic crushing impact type recordings were very noisy for an effective sound recognition application. In the detailed analysis of the recognition errors, it was observed that most of the errors occurred in the hitting impact type. According to the experimental results, it can be said that the proposed novel approach for the separation of packaging wastes could provide a high classification performance for RVMs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of health effects of prenatal methylmercury exposure using structural equation models.

PubMed

Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Keiding, Niels; Grandjean, Philippe; Weihe, Pal

2002-10-14

Observational studies in epidemiology always involve concerns regarding validity, especially measurement error, confounding, missing data, and other problems that may affect the study outcomes. Widely used standard statistical techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, may to some extent adjust for these shortcomings. However, structural equations may incorporate most of these considerations, thereby providing overall adjusted estimations of associations. This approach was used in a large epidemiological data set from a prospective study of developmental methyl-mercury toxicity. Structural equation models were developed for assessment of the association between biomarkers of prenatal mercury exposure and neuropsychological test scores in 7 year old children. Eleven neurobehavioral outcomes were grouped into motor function and verbally mediated function. Adjustment for local dependence and item bias was necessary for a satisfactory fit of the model, but had little impact on the estimated mercury effects. The mercury effect on the two latent neurobehavioral functions was similar to the strongest effects seen for individual test scores of motor function and verbal skills. Adjustment for contaminant exposure to poly chlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) changed the estimates only marginally, but the mercury effect could be reduced to non-significance by assuming a large measurement error for the PCB biomarker. The structural equation analysis allows correction for measurement error in exposure variables, incorporation of multiple outcomes and incomplete cases. This approach therefore deserves to be applied more frequently in the analysis of complex epidemiological data sets.

Identifying Changes of Complex Flood Dynamics with Recurrence Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendi, D.; Merz, B.; Marwan, N.

2016-12-01

Temporal changes in flood hazard system are known to be difficult to detect and attribute due to multiple drivers that include complex processes that are non-stationary and highly variable. These drivers, such as human-induced climate change, natural climate variability, implementation of flood defense, river training, or land use change, could impact variably on space-time scales and influence or mask each other. Flood time series may show complex behavior that vary at a range of time scales and may cluster in time. Moreover hydrological time series (i.e. discharge) are often subject to measurement errors, such as rating curve error especially in the case of extremes where observation are actually derived through extrapolation. This study focuses on the application of recurrence based data analysis techniques (recurrence plot) for understanding and quantifying spatio-temporal changes in flood hazard in Germany. The recurrence plot is known as an effective tool to visualize the dynamics of phase space trajectories i.e. constructed from a time series by using an embedding dimension and a time delay, and it is known to be effective in analyzing non-stationary and non-linear time series. Sensitivity of the common measurement errors and noise on recurrence analysis will also be analyzed and evaluated against conventional methods. The emphasis will be on the identification of characteristic recurrence properties that could associate typical dynamic to certain flood events.

Enzymatic creatinine assays allow estimation of glomerular filtration rate in stages 1 and 2 chronic kidney disease using CKD-EPI equation.

PubMed

Kuster, Nils; Cristol, Jean-Paul; Cavalier, Etienne; Bargnoux, Anne-Sophie; Halimi, Jean-Michel; Froissart, Marc; Piéroni, Laurence; Delanaye, Pierre

2014-01-20

The National Kidney Disease Education Program group demonstrated that MDRD equation is sensitive to creatinine measurement error, particularly at higher glomerular filtration rates. Thus, MDRD-based eGFR above 60 mL/min/1.73 m² should not be reported numerically. However, little is known about the impact of analytical error on CKD-EPI-based estimates. This study aimed at assessing the impact of analytical characteristics (bias and imprecision) of 12 enzymatic and 4 compensated Jaffe previously characterized creatinine assays on MDRD and CKD-EPI eGFR. In a simulation study, the impact of analytical error was assessed on a hospital population of 24084 patients. Ability using each assay to correctly classify patients according to chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages was evaluated. For eGFR between 60 and 90 mL/min/1.73 m², both equations were sensitive to analytical error. Compensated Jaffe assays displayed high bias in this range and led to poorer sensitivity/specificity for classification according to CKD stages than enzymatic assays. As compared to MDRD equation, CKD-EPI equation decreases impact of analytical error in creatinine measurement above 90 mL/min/1.73 m². Compensated Jaffe creatinine assays lead to important errors in eGFR and should be avoided. Accurate enzymatic assays allow estimation of eGFR until 90 mL/min/1.73 m² with MDRD and 120 mL/min/1.73 m² with CKD-EPI equation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observation impact studies with the Mercator Ocean analysis and forecasting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remy, E. D.; Le Traon, P. Y.; Lellouche, J. M.; Drevillon, M.; Turpin, V.; Benkiran, M.

2016-02-01

Mercator Ocean produces and delivers in real-time ocean analysis and forecasts on a daily basis. The quality of the analysis highly relies on the availability and quality of the assimilated observations.Tools are developed to estimate the impact of the present network and to help designing the future evolutions of the observing systems in the context of near real time production of ocean analysis and forecasts. OSE and OSSE are the main approaches used in this context. They allow the assessment of the efficiency of a given data set to constrain the ocean model circulation through the data assimilation process. Illustrations will mainly focus on the present and future evolution of the Argo observation network and altimetry constellation, including the potential impact of future SWOT data. Our systems show clear sensitivities to observation array changes, mainly depending on the specified observation error and regional dynamic. Impact on non observed variables can be important and are important to evaluate. Dedicated diagnostics has to be define to measure the improvements bring by each data set. Alternative approaches to OSE and OSSE are also explored: approximate computation of DFS will be presented and discussed. Limitations of each approach will be discussed in the context of real time operation.

Can Functional Movement Assessment Predict Football Head Impact Biomechanics?

PubMed

Ford, Julia M; Campbell, Kody R; Ford, Cassie B; Boyd, Kenneth E; Padua, Darin A; Mihalik, Jason P

2018-06-01

The purposes of this study was to determine functional movement assessments' ability to predict head impact biomechanics in college football players and to determine whether head impact biomechanics could explain preseason to postseason changes in functional movement performance. Participants (N = 44; mass, 109.0 ± 20.8 kg; age, 20.0 ± 1.3 yr) underwent two preseason and postseason functional movement assessment screenings: 1) Fusionetics Movement Efficiency Test and 2) Landing Error Scoring System (LESS). Fusionetics is scored 0 to 100, and participants were categorized into the following movement quality groups as previously published: good (≥75), moderate (50-75), and poor (<50). The LESS is scored 0 to 17, and participants were categorized into the following previously published movement quality groups: good (≤5 errors), moderate (6-7 errors), and poor (>7 errors). The Head Impact Telemetry (HIT) System measured head impact frequency and magnitude (linear acceleration and rotational acceleration). An encoder with six single-axis accelerometers was inserted between the padding of a commercially available Riddell football helmet. We used random intercepts general linear-mixed models to analyze our data. There were no effects of preseason movement assessment group on the two Head Impact Telemetry System impact outcomes: linear acceleration and rotational acceleration. Head impact frequency did not significantly predict preseason to postseason score changes obtained from the Fusionetics (F1,36 = 0.22, P = 0.643, R = 0.006) or the LESS (F1,36 < 0.01, P = 0.988, R < 0.001) assessments. Previous research has demonstrated an association between concussion and musculoskeletal injury, as well as functional movement assessment performance and musculoskeletal injury. The functional movement assessments chosen may not be sensitive enough to detect neurological and neuromuscular differences within the sample and subtle changes after sustaining head impacts.

Microgrid optimal scheduling considering impact of high penetration wind generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alanazi, Abdulaziz

The objective of this thesis is to study the impact of high penetration wind energy in economic and reliable operation of microgrids. Wind power is variable, i.e., constantly changing, and nondispatchable, i.e., cannot be controlled by the microgrid controller. Thus an accurate forecasting of wind power is an essential task in order to study its impacts in microgrid operation. Two commonly used forecasting methods including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) have been used in this thesis to improve the wind power forecasting. The forecasting error is calculated using a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and is improved using the ANN. The wind forecast is further used in the microgrid optimal scheduling problem. The microgrid optimal scheduling is performed by developing a viable model for security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) based on mixed-integer linear programing (MILP) method. The proposed SCUC is solved for various wind penetration levels and the relationship between the total cost and the wind power penetration is found. In order to reduce microgrid power transfer fluctuations, an additional constraint is proposed and added to the SCUC formulation. The new constraint would control the time-based fluctuations. The impact of the constraint on microgrid SCUC results is tested and validated with numerical analysis. Finally, the applicability of proposed models is demonstrated through numerical simulations.

Rapid Measurement and Correction of Phase Errors from B0 Eddy Currents: Impact on Image Quality for Non-Cartesian Imaging

PubMed Central

Brodsky, Ethan K.; Klaers, Jessica L.; Samsonov, Alexey A.; Kijowski, Richard; Block, Walter F.

2014-01-01

Non-Cartesian imaging sequences and navigational methods can be more sensitive to scanner imperfections that have little impact on conventional clinical sequences, an issue which has repeatedly complicated the commercialization of these techniques by frustrating transitions to multi-center evaluations. One such imperfection is phase errors caused by resonant frequency shifts from eddy currents induced in the cryostat by time-varying gradients, a phenomemon known as B0 eddy currents. These phase errors can have a substantial impact on sequences that use ramp sampling, bipolar gradients, and readouts at varying azimuthal angles. We present a method for measuring and correcting phase errors from B0 eddy currents and examine the results on two different scanner models. This technique yields significant improvements in image quality for high-resolution joint imaging on certain scanners. The results suggest that correction of short time B0 eddy currents in manufacturer provided service routines would simplify adoption of non-Cartesian sampling methods. PMID:22488532

Control of secondary electrons from ion beam impact using a positive potential electrode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crowley, T. P., E-mail: tpcrowley@xanthotechnologies.com; Demers, D. R.; Fimognari, P. J.

2016-11-15

Secondary electrons emitted when an ion beam impacts a detector can amplify the ion beam signal, but also introduce errors if electrons from one detector propagate to another. A potassium ion beam and a detector comprised of ten impact wires, four split-plates, and a pair of biased electrodes were used to demonstrate that a low-voltage, positive electrode can be used to maintain the beneficial amplification effect while greatly reducing the error introduced from the electrons traveling between detector elements.

Evaluation of the Relative Contribution of Observing Systems in Reanalyses: Aircraft Temperature Bias and Analysis Innovations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Dasilva, Arindo M.

2012-01-01

Reanalyses have become important sources of data in weather and climate research. While observations are the most crucial component of the systems, few research projects consider carefully the multitudes of assimilated observations and their impact on the results. This is partly due to the diversity of observations and their individual complexity, but also due to the unfriendly nature of the data formats. Here, we discuss the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and a companion dataset, the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO). GIO is simply a post-processing of the assimilated observations and their innovations (forecast error and analysis error) to a common spatio-temporal grid, following that of the MERRA analysis fields. This data includes in situ, retrieved and radiance observations that are assimilated and used in the reanalysis. While all these disparate observations and statistics are in a uniform easily accessible format, there are some limitations. Similar observations are binned to the grid, so that multiple observations are combined in the gridding process. The data is then implicitly thinned. Some details in the meta data may also be lost (e.g. aircraft or station ID). Nonetheless, the gridded observations should provide easy access to all the observations input to the reanalysis. To provide an example of the GIO data, a case study evaluating observing systems over the United States and statistics is presented, and demonstrates the evaluation of the observations and the data assimilation. The GIO data is used to collocate 200mb Radiosonde and Aircraft temperature measurements from 1979-2009. A known warm bias of the aircraft measurements is apparent compared to the radiosonde data. However, when larger quantities of aircraft data are available, they dominate the analysis and the radiosonde data become biased against the forecast. When AMSU radiances become available the radiosonde and aircraft analysis and forecast error take on an annual cycle. While this supports results of previous work that recommend bias corrections for the aircraft measurements, the interactions with AMSU radiances will also require further investigation. This also provides an example for reanalysis users in examining the available observations and their impact on the analysis. GIO data is presently available alongside the MERRA reanalysis.

Asteroid (21) Lutetia: Semi-Automatic Impact Craters Detection and Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenerowicz, M.; Banaszkiewicz, M.

2018-05-01

The need to develop an automated method, independent of lighting and surface conditions, for the identification and measurement of impact craters, as well as the creation of a reliable and efficient tool, has become a justification of our studies. This paper presents a methodology for the detection of impact craters based on their spectral and spatial features. The analysis aims at evaluation of the algorithm capabilities to determinate the spatial parameters of impact craters presented in a time series. In this way, time-consuming visual interpretation of images would be reduced to the special cases. The developed algorithm is tested on a set of OSIRIS high resolution images of asteroid Lutetia surface which is characterized by varied landforms and the abundance of craters created by collisions with smaller bodies of the solar system.The proposed methodology consists of three main steps: characterisation of objects of interest on limited set of data, semi-automatic extraction of impact craters performed for total set of data by applying the Mathematical Morphology image processing (Serra, 1988, Soille, 2003), and finally, creating libraries of spatial and spectral parameters for extracted impact craters, i.e. the coordinates of the crater center, semi-major and semi-minor axis, shadow length and cross-section. The overall accuracy of the proposed method is 98 %, the Kappa coefficient is 0.84, the correlation coefficient is ∼ 0.80, the omission error 24.11 %, the commission error 3.45 %. The obtained results show that methods based on Mathematical Morphology operators are effective also with a limited number of data and low-contrast images.

Meaningful Peer Review in Radiology: A Review of Current Practices and Potential Future Directions.

PubMed

Moriarity, Andrew K; Hawkins, C Matthew; Geis, J Raymond; Dreyer, Keith J; Kamer, Aaron P; Khandheria, Paras; Morey, Jose; Whitfill, James; Wiggins, Richard H; Itri, Jason N

2016-12-01

The current practice of peer review within radiology is well developed and widely implemented compared with other medical specialties. However, there are many factors that limit current peer review practices from reducing diagnostic errors and improving patient care. The development of "meaningful peer review" requires a transition away from compliance toward quality improvement, whereby the information and insights gained facilitate education and drive systematic improvements that reduce the frequency and impact of diagnostic error. The next generation of peer review requires significant improvements in IT functionality and integration, enabling features such as anonymization, adjudication by multiple specialists, categorization and analysis of errors, tracking, feedback, and easy export into teaching files and other media that require strong partnerships with vendors. In this article, the authors assess various peer review practices, with focused discussion on current limitations and future needs for meaningful peer review in radiology. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of RDSS positioning accuracy based on RNSS wide area differential technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Nan; Su, RanRan; Zhou, JianHua; Hu, XiaoGong; Gong, XiuQiang; Liu, Li; He, Feng; Guo, Rui; Ren, Hui; Hu, GuangMing; Zhang, Lei

2013-10-01

The BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) provides Radio Navigation Service System (RNSS) as well as Radio Determination Service System (RDSS). RDSS users can obtain positioning by responding the Master Control Center (MCC) inquiries to signal transmitted via GEO satellite transponder. The positioning result can be calculated with elevation constraint by MCC. The primary error sources affecting the RDSS positioning accuracy are the RDSS signal transceiver delay, atmospheric trans-mission delay and GEO satellite position error. During GEO orbit maneuver, poor orbit forecast accuracy significantly impacts RDSS services. A real-time 3-D orbital correction method based on wide-area differential technique is raised to correct the orbital error. Results from the observation shows that the method can successfully improve positioning precision during orbital maneuver, independent from the RDSS reference station. This improvement can reach 50% in maximum. Accurate calibration of the RDSS signal transceiver delay precision and digital elevation map may have a critical role in high precise RDSS positioning services.

A bounding-based solution approach for the continuous arc covering problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Ran; Murray, Alan T.; Batta, Rajan

2014-04-01

Road segments, telecommunication wiring, water and sewer pipelines, canals and the like are important features of the urban environment. They are often conceived of and represented as network-based arcs. As a result of the usefulness and significance of arc-based features, there is a need to site facilities along arcs to serve demand. Examples of such facilities include surveillance equipment, cellular towers, refueling centers and emergency response stations, with the intent of being economically efficient as well as providing good service along the arcs. While this amounts to a continuous location problem by nature, various discretizations are generally relied upon to solve such problems. The result is potential for representation errors that negatively impact analysis and decision making. This paper develops a solution approach for the continuous arc covering problem that theoretically eliminates representation errors. The developed approach is applied to optimally place acoustic sensors and cellular base stations along a road network. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach for ameliorating any error and uncertainty in the modeling process.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noel, Camille E.; Gutti, VeeraRajesh; Bosch, Walter

Purpose: To quantify the potential impact of the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise–Radiation Oncology Quality Assurance with Plan Veto (QAPV) on patient safety of external beam radiation therapy (RT) operations. Methods and Materials: An institutional database of events (errors and near-misses) was used to evaluate the ability of QAPV to prevent clinically observed events. We analyzed reported events that were related to Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine RT plan parameter inconsistencies between the intended treatment (on the treatment planning system) and the delivered treatment (on the treatment machine). Critical Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine RT plan parameters were identified.more » Each event was scored for importance using the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis methodology. Potential error occurrence (frequency) was derived according to the collected event data, along with the potential event severity, and the probability of detection with and without the theoretical implementation of the QAPV plan comparison check. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) with and without QAPV were compared to quantify the potential benefit of clinical implementation of QAPV. Results: The implementation of QAPV could reduce the RPN values for 15 of 22 (71%) of evaluated parameters, with an overall average reduction in RPN of 68 (range, 0-216). For the 6 high-risk parameters (>200), the average reduction in RPN value was 163 (range, 108-216). The RPN value reduction for the intermediate-risk (200 > RPN > 100) parameters was (0-140). With QAPV, the largest RPN value for “Beam Meterset” was reduced from 324 to 108. The maximum reduction in RPN value was for Beam Meterset (216, 66.7%), whereas the maximum percentage reduction was for Cumulative Meterset Weight (80, 88.9%). Conclusion: This analysis quantifies the value of the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise–Radiation Oncology QAPV implementation in clinical workflow. We demonstrate that although QAPV does not provide a comprehensive solution for error prevention in RT, it can have a significant impact on a subset of the most severe clinically observed events.« less

Impact Assessment of GNSS Spoofing Attacks on INS/GNSS Integrated Navigation System.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Li, Sihai; Fu, Qiangwen; Liu, Zhenbo

2018-05-04

In the face of emerging Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) spoofing attacks, there is a need to give a comprehensive analysis on how the inertial navigation system (INS)/GNSS integrated navigation system responds to different kinds of spoofing attacks. A better understanding of the integrated navigation system’s behavior with spoofed GNSS measurements gives us valuable clues to develop effective spoofing defenses. This paper focuses on an impact assessment of GNSS spoofing attacks on the integrated navigation system Kalman filter’s error covariance, innovation sequence and inertial sensor bias estimation. A simple and straightforward measurement-level trajectory spoofing simulation framework is presented, serving as the basis for an impact assessment of both unsynchronized and synchronized spoofing attacks. Recommendations are given for spoofing detection and mitigation based on our findings in the impact assessment process.

The evolution of Crew Resource Management training in commercial aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helmreich, R. L.; Merritt, A. C.; Wilhelm, J. A.

1999-01-01

In this study, we describe changes in the nature of Crew Resource Management (CRM) training in commercial aviation, including its shift from cockpit to crew resource management. Validation of the impact of CRM is discussed. Limitations of CRM, including lack of cross-cultural generality are considered. An overarching framework that stresses error management to increase acceptance of CRM concepts is presented. The error management approach defines behavioral strategies taught in CRM as error countermeasures that are employed to avoid error, to trap errors committed, and to mitigate the consequences of error.

42 CFR 431.992 - Corrective action plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... CMS, designed to reduce improper payments in each program based on its analysis of the error causes in... State must take the following actions: (1) Data analysis. States must conduct data analysis such as reviewing clusters of errors, general error causes, characteristics, and frequency of errors that are...

42 CFR 431.992 - Corrective action plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... CMS, designed to reduce improper payments in each program based on its analysis of the error causes in... State must take the following actions: (1) Data analysis. States must conduct data analysis such as reviewing clusters of errors, general error causes, characteristics, and frequency of errors that are...

The impact of command signal power distribution, processing delays, and speed scaling on neurally-controlled devices.

PubMed

Marathe, A R; Taylor, D M

2015-08-01

Decoding algorithms for brain-machine interfacing (BMI) are typically only optimized to reduce the magnitude of decoding errors. Our goal was to systematically quantify how four characteristics of BMI command signals impact closed-loop performance: (1) error magnitude, (2) distribution of different frequency components in the decoding errors, (3) processing delays, and (4) command gain. To systematically evaluate these different command features and their interactions, we used a closed-loop BMI simulator where human subjects used their own wrist movements to command the motion of a cursor to targets on a computer screen. Random noise with three different power distributions and four different relative magnitudes was added to the ongoing cursor motion in real time to simulate imperfect decoding. These error characteristics were tested with four different visual feedback delays and two velocity gains. Participants had significantly more trouble correcting for errors with a larger proportion of low-frequency, slow-time-varying components than they did with jittery, higher-frequency errors, even when the error magnitudes were equivalent. When errors were present, a movement delay often increased the time needed to complete the movement by an order of magnitude more than the delay itself. Scaling down the overall speed of the velocity command can actually speed up target acquisition time when low-frequency errors and delays are present. This study is the first to systematically evaluate how the combination of these four key command signal features (including the relatively-unexplored error power distribution) and their interactions impact closed-loop performance independent of any specific decoding method. The equations we derive relating closed-loop movement performance to these command characteristics can provide guidance on how best to balance these different factors when designing BMI systems. The equations reported here also provide an efficient way to compare a diverse range of decoding options offline.

The impact of command signal power distribution, processing delays, and speed scaling on neurally-controlled devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marathe, A. R.; Taylor, D. M.

2015-08-01

Objective. Decoding algorithms for brain-machine interfacing (BMI) are typically only optimized to reduce the magnitude of decoding errors. Our goal was to systematically quantify how four characteristics of BMI command signals impact closed-loop performance: (1) error magnitude, (2) distribution of different frequency components in the decoding errors, (3) processing delays, and (4) command gain. Approach. To systematically evaluate these different command features and their interactions, we used a closed-loop BMI simulator where human subjects used their own wrist movements to command the motion of a cursor to targets on a computer screen. Random noise with three different power distributions and four different relative magnitudes was added to the ongoing cursor motion in real time to simulate imperfect decoding. These error characteristics were tested with four different visual feedback delays and two velocity gains. Main results. Participants had significantly more trouble correcting for errors with a larger proportion of low-frequency, slow-time-varying components than they did with jittery, higher-frequency errors, even when the error magnitudes were equivalent. When errors were present, a movement delay often increased the time needed to complete the movement by an order of magnitude more than the delay itself. Scaling down the overall speed of the velocity command can actually speed up target acquisition time when low-frequency errors and delays are present. Significance. This study is the first to systematically evaluate how the combination of these four key command signal features (including the relatively-unexplored error power distribution) and their interactions impact closed-loop performance independent of any specific decoding method. The equations we derive relating closed-loop movement performance to these command characteristics can provide guidance on how best to balance these different factors when designing BMI systems. The equations reported here also provide an efficient way to compare a diverse range of decoding options offline.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount ofmore » uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST for a 1.5 MW turbine. The impact of lidar turbulence error on the predicted power from these different models is examined to determine the degree of turbulence measurement accuracy needed for accurate power prediction.« less

Impact of cell size on inventory and mapping errors in a cellular geographic information system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wehde, M. E. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The effect of grid position was found insignificant for maps but highly significant for isolated mapping units. A modelable relationship between mapping error and cell size was observed for the map segment analyzed. Map data structure was also analyzed with an interboundary distance distribution approach. Map data structure and the impact of cell size on that structure were observed. The existence of a model allowing prediction of mapping error based on map structure was hypothesized and two generations of models were tested under simplifying assumptions.

Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

2016-10-01

Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

Reducing the Familiarity of Conjunction Lures with Pictures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, Marianne E.

2013-01-01

Four experiments were conducted to test whether conjunction errors were reduced after pictorial encoding and whether the semantic overlap between study and conjunction items would impact error rates. Across 4 experiments, compound words studied with a single-picture had lower conjunction error rates during a recognition test than those words…

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Joey S.; Bienert, Nancy; Gomez, Ashley; Hunt, Sarah; Kraut, Joshua; Martin, Lynne; Morey, Susan; Green, Steven M.; Prevot, Thomas; Wu, Minghong G.

2013-01-01

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

SU-E-J-119: What Effect Have the Volume Defined in the Alignment Clipbox for Cervical Cancer Using Automatic Registration Methods for Cone- Beam CT Verification?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, W; Yang, H; Wang, Y

2014-06-01

Purpose: To investigate the impact of different clipbox volumes with automated registration techniques using commercially available software with on board volumetric imaging(OBI) for treatment verification in cervical cancer patients. Methods: Fifty cervical cancer patients received daily CBCT scans(on-board imaging v1.5 system, Varian Medical Systems) during the first treatment week and weekly thereafter were included this analysis. A total of 450 CBCT scans were registered to the planning CTscan using pelvic clipbox(clipbox-Pelvic) and around PTV clip box(clipbox- PTV). The translations(anterior-posterior, left-right, superior-inferior) and the rotations(yaw, pitch and roll) errors for each matches were recorded. The setup errors and the systematic andmore » random errors for both of the clip-boxes were calculated. Paired Samples t test was used to analysis the differences between clipbox-Pelvic and clipbox-PTV. Results: . The SD of systematic error(σ) was 1.0mm, 2.0mm,3.2mm and 1.9mm,2.3mm, 3.0mm in the AP, LR and SI directions for clipbox-Pelvic and clipbox-PTV, respectively. The average random error(Σ)was 1.7mm, 2.0mm,4.2mm and 1.7mm,3.4mm, 4.4mm in the AP, LR and SI directions for clipbox-Pelvic and clipbox-PTV, respectively. But, only the SI direction was acquired significantly differences between two image registration volumes(p=0.002,p=0.01 for mean and SD). For rotations, the yaw mean/SD and the pitch SD were acquired significantly differences between clipbox-Pelvic and clipbox-PTV. Conclusion: The defined volume for Image registration is important for cervical cancer when 3D/3D match was used. The alignment clipbox can effect the setup errors obtained. Further analysis is need to determine the optimal defined volume to use the image registration in cervical cancer. Conflict of interest: none.« less

Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Todling, Ricardo; Marchesin, Dan

2000-01-01

Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.

Error-Analysis for Correctness, Effectiveness, and Composing Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ewald, Helen Rothschild

The assumptions underpinning grammatical mistakes can often be detected by looking for patterns of errors in a student's work. Assumptions that negatively influence rhetorical effectiveness can similarly be detected through error analysis. On a smaller scale, error analysis can also reveal assumptions affecting rhetorical choice. Snags in the…

Dose-dependent effects of cannabis on the neural correlates of error monitoring in frequent cannabis users.

PubMed

Kowal, Mikael A; van Steenbergen, Henk; Colzato, Lorenza S; Hazekamp, Arno; van der Wee, Nic J A; Manai, Meriem; Durieux, Jeffrey; Hommel, Bernhard

2015-11-01

Cannabis has been suggested to impair the capacity to recognize discrepancies between expected and executed actions. However, there is a lack of conclusive evidence regarding the acute impact of cannabis on the neural correlates of error monitoring. In order to contribute to the available knowledge, we used a randomized, double-blind, between-groups design to investigate the impact of administration of a low (5.5 mg THC) or high (22 mg THC) dose of vaporized cannabis vs. placebo on the amplitudes of the error-related negativity (ERN) and error positivity (Pe) in the context of the Flanker task, in a group of frequent cannabis users (required to use cannabis minimally 4 times a week, for at least 2 years). Subjects in the high dose group (n=18) demonstrated a significantly diminished ERN in comparison to the placebo condition (n=19), whereas a reduced Pe amplitude was observed in both the high and low dose (n=18) conditions, as compared to placebo. The results suggest that a high dose of cannabis may affect the neural correlates of both the conscious (late), as well as the initial automatic processes involved in error monitoring, while a low dose of cannabis might impact only the conscious (late) processing of errors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo simulations of the impact of troposphere, clock and measurement errors on the repeatability of VLBI positions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pany, A.; Böhm, J.; MacMillan, D.; Schuh, H.; Nilsson, T.; Wresnik, J.

2011-01-01

Within the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) Monte Carlo simulations have been carried out to design the next generation VLBI system ("VLBI2010"). Simulated VLBI observables were generated taking into account the three most important stochastic error sources in VLBI, i.e. wet troposphere delay, station clock, and measurement error. Based on realistic physical properties of the troposphere and clocks we ran simulations to investigate the influence of the troposphere on VLBI analyses, and to gain information about the role of clock performance and measurement errors of the receiving system in the process of reaching VLBI2010's goal of mm position accuracy on a global scale. Our simulations confirm that the wet troposphere delay is the most important of these three error sources. We did not observe significant improvement of geodetic parameters if the clocks were simulated with an Allan standard deviation better than 1 × 10-14 at 50 min and found the impact of measurement errors to be relatively small compared with the impact of the troposphere. Along with simulations to test different network sizes, scheduling strategies, and antenna slew rates these studies were used as a basis for the definition and specification of VLBI2010 antennas and recording system and might also be an example for other space geodetic techniques.

Impact of spot charge inaccuracies in IMPT treatments.

PubMed

Kraan, Aafke C; Depauw, Nicolas; Clasie, Ben; Giunta, Marina; Madden, Tom; Kooy, Hanne M

2017-08-01

Spot charge is one parameter of pencil-beam scanning dose delivery system whose accuracy is typically high but whose required value has not been investigated. In this work we quantify the dose impact of spot charge inaccuracies on the dose distribution in patients. Knowing the effect of charge errors is relevant for conventional proton machines, as well as for new generation proton machines, where ensuring accurate charge may be challenging. Through perturbation of spot charge in treatment plans for seven patients and a phantom, we evaluated the dose impact of absolute (up to 5× 10 6 protons) and relative (up to 30%) charge errors. We investigated the dependence on beam width by studying scenarios with small, medium and large beam sizes. Treatment plan statistics included the Γ passing rate, dose-volume-histograms and dose differences. The allowable absolute charge error for small spot plans was about 2× 10 6 protons. Larger limits would be allowed if larger spots were used. For relative errors, the maximum allowable error size for small, medium and large spots was about 13%, 8% and 6% for small, medium and large spots, respectively. Dose distributions turned out to be surprisingly robust against random spot charge perturbation. Our study suggests that ensuring spot charge errors as small as 1-2% as is commonly aimed at in conventional proton therapy machines, is clinically not strictly needed. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Automatic Error Analysis Using Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothwell, E. J.; Cloud, M. J.

2012-01-01

A technique for automatic error analysis using interval mathematics is introduced. A comparison to standard error propagation methods shows that in cases involving complicated formulas, the interval approach gives comparable error estimates with much less effort. Several examples are considered, and numerical errors are computed using the INTLAB…

Influence of incident angle on the decoding in laser polarization encoding guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Muchun; Chen, Yanru; Zhao, Qi; Xin, Yu; Wen, Hongyuan

2009-07-01

Dynamic detection of polarization states is very important for laser polarization coding guidance systems. In this paper, a set of dynamic polarization decoding and detection system used in laser polarization coding guidance was designed. Detection process of the normal incident polarized light is analyzed with Jones Matrix; the system can effectively detect changes in polarization. Influence of non-normal incident light on performance of polarization decoding and detection system is studied; analysis showed that changes in incident angle will have a negative impact on measure results, the non-normal incident influence is mainly caused by second-order birefringence and polarization sensitivity effect generated in the phase delay and beam splitter prism. Combined with Fresnel formula, decoding errors of linearly polarized light, elliptically polarized light and circularly polarized light with different incident angles into the detector are calculated respectively, the results show that the decoding errors increase with increase of incident angle. Decoding errors have relations with geometry parameters, material refractive index of wave plate, polarization beam splitting prism. Decoding error can be reduced by using thin low-order wave-plate. Simulation of detection of polarized light with different incident angle confirmed the corresponding conclusions.

Modeling and calculation of impact friction caused by corner contact in gear transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Changjiang; Chen, Siyu

2014-09-01

Corner contact in gear pair causes vibration and noise, which has attracted many attentions. However, teeth errors and deformation make it difficulty to determine the point situated at corner contact and study the mechanism of teeth impact friction in the current researches. Based on the mechanism of corner contact, the process of corner contact is divided into two stages of impact and scratch, and the calculation model including gear equivalent error—combined deformation is established along the line of action. According to the distributive law, gear equivalent error is synthesized by base pitch error, normal backlash and tooth profile modification on the line of action. The combined tooth compliance of the first point lying in corner contact before the normal path is inversed along the line of action, on basis of the theory of engagement and the curve of tooth synthetic compliance & load-history. Combined secondarily the equivalent error with the combined deflection, the position standard of the point situated at corner contact is probed. Then the impact positions and forces, from the beginning to the end during corner contact before the normal path, are calculated accurately. Due to the above results, the lash model during corner contact is founded, and the impact force and frictional coefficient are quantified. A numerical example is performed and the averaged impact friction coefficient based on the presented calculation method is validated. This research obtains the results which could be referenced to understand the complex mechanism of teeth impact friction and quantitative calculation of the friction force and coefficient, and to gear exact design for tribology.

Laboratory errors and patient safety.

PubMed

Miligy, Dawlat A

2015-01-01

Laboratory data are extensively used in medical practice; consequently, laboratory errors have a tremendous impact on patient safety. Therefore, programs designed to identify and reduce laboratory errors, as well as, setting specific strategies are required to minimize these errors and improve patient safety. The purpose of this paper is to identify part of the commonly encountered laboratory errors throughout our practice in laboratory work, their hazards on patient health care and some measures and recommendations to minimize or to eliminate these errors. Recording the encountered laboratory errors during May 2008 and their statistical evaluation (using simple percent distribution) have been done in the department of laboratory of one of the private hospitals in Egypt. Errors have been classified according to the laboratory phases and according to their implication on patient health. Data obtained out of 1,600 testing procedure revealed that the total number of encountered errors is 14 tests (0.87 percent of total testing procedures). Most of the encountered errors lay in the pre- and post-analytic phases of testing cycle (representing 35.7 and 50 percent, respectively, of total errors). While the number of test errors encountered in the analytic phase represented only 14.3 percent of total errors. About 85.7 percent of total errors were of non-significant implication on patients health being detected before test reports have been submitted to the patients. On the other hand, the number of test errors that have been already submitted to patients and reach the physician represented 14.3 percent of total errors. Only 7.1 percent of the errors could have an impact on patient diagnosis. The findings of this study were concomitant with those published from the USA and other countries. This proves that laboratory problems are universal and need general standardization and bench marking measures. Original being the first data published from Arabic countries that evaluated the encountered laboratory errors and launch the great need for universal standardization and bench marking measures to control the laboratory work.

[Medication errors in a neonatal unit: One of the main adverse events].

PubMed

Esqué Ruiz, M T; Moretones Suñol, M G; Rodríguez Miguélez, J M; Sánchez Ortiz, E; Izco Urroz, M; de Lamo Camino, M; Figueras Aloy, J

2016-04-01

Neonatal units are one of the hospital areas most exposed to the committing of treatment errors. A medication error (ME) is defined as the avoidable incident secondary to drug misuse that causes or may cause harm to the patient. The aim of this paper is to present the incidence of ME (including feeding) reported in our neonatal unit and its characteristics and possible causal factors. A list of the strategies implemented for prevention is presented. An analysis was performed on the ME declared in a neonatal unit. A total of 511 MEs have been reported over a period of seven years in the neonatal unit. The incidence in the critical care unit was 32.2 per 1000 hospital days or 20 per 100 patients, of which 0.22 per 1000 days had serious repercussions. The ME reported were, 39.5% prescribing errors, 68.1% administration errors, 0.6% were adverse drug reactions. Around two-thirds (65.4%) were produced by drugs, with 17% being intercepted. The large majority (89.4%) had no impact on the patient, but 0.6% caused permanent damage or death. Nurses reported 65.4% of MEs. The most commonly implicated causal factor was distraction (59%). Simple corrective action (alerts), and intermediate (protocols, clinical sessions and courses) and complex actions (causal analysis, monograph) were performed. It is essential to determine the current state of ME, in order to establish preventive measures and, together with teamwork and good practices, promote a climate of safety. Copyright © 2015 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Variations in Static Force Control and Motor Unit Behavior with Error Amplification Feedback in the Elderly.

PubMed

Chen, Yi-Ching; Lin, Linda L; Lin, Yen-Ting; Hu, Chia-Ling; Hwang, Ing-Shiou

2017-01-01

Error amplification (EA) feedback is a promising approach to advance visuomotor skill. As error detection and visuomotor processing at short time scales decline with age, this study examined whether older adults could benefit from EA feedback that included higher-frequency information to guide a force-tracking task. Fourteen young and 14 older adults performed low-level static isometric force-tracking with visual guidance of typical visual feedback and EA feedback containing augmented high-frequency errors. Stabilogram diffusion analysis was used to characterize force fluctuation dynamics. Also, the discharge behaviors of motor units and pooled motor unit coherence were assessed following the decomposition of multi-channel surface electromyography (EMG). EA produced different behavioral and neurophysiological impacts on young and older adults. Older adults exhibited inferior task accuracy with EA feedback than with typical visual feedback, but not young adults. Although stabilogram diffusion analysis revealed that EA led to a significant decrease in critical time points for both groups, EA potentiated the critical point of force fluctuations [Formula: see text], short-term effective diffusion coefficients (Ds), and short-term exponent scaling only for the older adults. Moreover, in older adults, EA added to the size of discharge variability of motor units and discharge regularity of cumulative discharge rate, but suppressed the pooled motor unit coherence in the 13-35 Hz band. Virtual EA alters the strategic balance between open-loop and closed-loop controls for force-tracking. Contrary to expectations, the prevailing use of closed-loop control with EA that contained high-frequency error information enhanced the motor unit discharge variability and undermined the force steadiness in the older group, concerning declines in physiological complexity in the neurobehavioral system and the common drive to the motoneuronal pool against force destabilization.

Geospatial distribution modeling and determining suitability of groundwater quality for irrigation purpose using geospatial methods and water quality index (WQI) in Northern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidey, Amanuel

2018-06-01

Determining suitability and vulnerability of groundwater quality for irrigation use is a key alarm and first aid for careful management of groundwater resources to diminish the impacts on irrigation. This study was conducted to determine the overall suitability of groundwater quality for irrigation use and to generate their spatial distribution maps in Elala catchment, Northern Ethiopia. Thirty-nine groundwater samples were collected to analyze and map the water quality variables. Atomic absorption spectrophotometer, ultraviolet spectrophotometer, titration and calculation methods were used for laboratory groundwater quality analysis. Arc GIS, geospatial analysis tools, semivariogram model types and interpolation methods were used to generate geospatial distribution maps. Twelve and eight water quality variables were used to produce weighted overlay and irrigation water quality index models, respectively. Root-mean-square error, mean square error, absolute square error, mean error, root-mean-square standardized error, measured values versus predicted values were used for cross-validation. The overall weighted overlay model result showed that 146 km2 areas are highly suitable, 135 km2 moderately suitable and 60 km2 area unsuitable for irrigation use. The result of irrigation water quality index confirms 10.26% with no restriction, 23.08% with low restriction, 20.51% with moderate restriction, 15.38% with high restriction and 30.76% with the severe restriction for irrigation use. GIS and irrigation water quality index are better methods for irrigation water resources management to achieve a full yield irrigation production to improve food security and to sustain it for a long period, to avoid the possibility of increasing environmental problems for the future generation.

Variations in Static Force Control and Motor Unit Behavior with Error Amplification Feedback in the Elderly

PubMed Central

Chen, Yi-Ching; Lin, Linda L.; Lin, Yen-Ting; Hu, Chia-Ling; Hwang, Ing-Shiou

2017-01-01

Error amplification (EA) feedback is a promising approach to advance visuomotor skill. As error detection and visuomotor processing at short time scales decline with age, this study examined whether older adults could benefit from EA feedback that included higher-frequency information to guide a force-tracking task. Fourteen young and 14 older adults performed low-level static isometric force-tracking with visual guidance of typical visual feedback and EA feedback containing augmented high-frequency errors. Stabilogram diffusion analysis was used to characterize force fluctuation dynamics. Also, the discharge behaviors of motor units and pooled motor unit coherence were assessed following the decomposition of multi-channel surface electromyography (EMG). EA produced different behavioral and neurophysiological impacts on young and older adults. Older adults exhibited inferior task accuracy with EA feedback than with typical visual feedback, but not young adults. Although stabilogram diffusion analysis revealed that EA led to a significant decrease in critical time points for both groups, EA potentiated the critical point of force fluctuations <ΔFc2>, short-term effective diffusion coefficients (Ds), and short-term exponent scaling only for the older adults. Moreover, in older adults, EA added to the size of discharge variability of motor units and discharge regularity of cumulative discharge rate, but suppressed the pooled motor unit coherence in the 13–35 Hz band. Virtual EA alters the strategic balance between open-loop and closed-loop controls for force-tracking. Contrary to expectations, the prevailing use of closed-loop control with EA that contained high-frequency error information enhanced the motor unit discharge variability and undermined the force steadiness in the older group, concerning declines in physiological complexity in the neurobehavioral system and the common drive to the motoneuronal pool against force destabilization. PMID:29167637

Improving financial performance by modeling and analysis of radiology procedure scheduling at a large community hospital.

PubMed

Lu, Lingbo; Li, Jingshan; Gisler, Paula

2011-06-01

Radiology tests, such as MRI, CT-scan, X-ray and ultrasound, are cost intensive and insurance pre-approvals are necessary to get reimbursement. In some cases, tests may be denied for payments by insurance companies due to lack of pre-approvals, inaccurate or missing necessary information. This can lead to substantial revenue losses for the hospital. In this paper, we present a simulation study of a centralized scheduling process for outpatient radiology tests at a large community hospital (Central Baptist Hospital in Lexington, Kentucky). Based on analysis of the central scheduling process, a simulation model of information flow in the process has been developed. Using such a model, the root causes of financial losses associated with errors and omissions in this process were identified and analyzed, and their impacts were quantified. In addition, "what-if" analysis was conducted to identify potential process improvement strategies in the form of recommendations to the hospital leadership. Such a model provides a quantitative tool for continuous improvement and process control in radiology outpatient test scheduling process to reduce financial losses associated with process error. This method of analysis is also applicable to other departments in the hospital.

Wavefront reconstruction algorithm based on Legendre polynomials for radial shearing interferometry over a square area and error analysis.

PubMed

Kewei, E; Zhang, Chen; Li, Mengyang; Xiong, Zhao; Li, Dahai

2015-08-10

Based on the Legendre polynomials expressions and its properties, this article proposes a new approach to reconstruct the distorted wavefront under test of a laser beam over square area from the phase difference data obtained by a RSI system. And the result of simulation and experimental results verifies the reliability of the method proposed in this paper. The formula of the error propagation coefficients is deduced when the phase difference data of overlapping area contain noise randomly. The matrix T which can be used to evaluate the impact of high-orders Legendre polynomial terms on the outcomes of the low-order terms due to mode aliasing is proposed, and the magnitude of impact can be estimated by calculating the F norm of the T. In addition, the relationship between ratio shear, sampling points, terms of polynomials and noise propagation coefficients, and the relationship between ratio shear, sampling points and norms of the T matrix are both analyzed, respectively. Those research results can provide an optimization design way for radial shearing interferometry system with the theoretical reference and instruction.

A multivariate variational objective analysis-assimilation method. Part 1: Development of the basic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, Gary L.; Ochs, Harry T., III

1988-01-01

The variational method of undetermined multipliers is used to derive a multivariate model for objective analysis. The model is intended for the assimilation of 3-D fields of rawinsonde height, temperature and wind, and mean level temperature observed by satellite into a dynamically consistent data set. Relative measurement errors are taken into account. The dynamic equations are the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation. The model Euler-Lagrange equations are eleven linear and/or nonlinear partial differential and/or algebraic equations. A cyclical solution sequence is described. Other model features include a nonlinear terrain-following vertical coordinate that eliminates truncation error in the pressure gradient terms of the horizontal momentum equations and easily accommodates satellite observed mean layer temperatures in the middle and upper troposphere. A projection of the pressure gradient onto equivalent pressure surfaces removes most of the adverse impacts of the lower coordinate surface on the variational adjustment.

Cluster designs to assess the prevalence of acute malnutrition by lot quality assurance sampling: a validation study by computer simulation

PubMed Central

Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello; Deitchler, Megan; Hedt, Bethany L; Egge, Kari; Valadez, Joseph J

2009-01-01

Traditional lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methods require simple random sampling to guarantee valid results. However, cluster sampling has been proposed to reduce the number of random starting points. This study uses simulations to examine the classification error of two such designs, a 67×3 (67 clusters of three observations) and a 33×6 (33 clusters of six observations) sampling scheme to assess the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM). Further, we explore the use of a 67×3 sequential sampling scheme for LQAS classification of GAM prevalence. Results indicate that, for independent clusters with moderate intracluster correlation for the GAM outcome, the three sampling designs maintain approximate validity for LQAS analysis. Sequential sampling can substantially reduce the average sample size that is required for data collection. The presence of intercluster correlation can impact dramatically the classification error that is associated with LQAS analysis. PMID:20011037

Measuring exertion time, duty cycle and hand activity level for industrial tasks using computer vision.

PubMed

Akkas, Oguz; Lee, Cheng Hsien; Hu, Yu Hen; Harris Adamson, Carisa; Rempel, David; Radwin, Robert G

2017-12-01

Two computer vision algorithms were developed to automatically estimate exertion time, duty cycle (DC) and hand activity level (HAL) from videos of workers performing 50 industrial tasks. The average DC difference between manual frame-by-frame analysis and the computer vision DC was -5.8% for the Decision Tree (DT) algorithm, and 1.4% for the Feature Vector Training (FVT) algorithm. The average HAL difference was 0.5 for the DT algorithm and 0.3 for the FVT algorithm. A sensitivity analysis, conducted to examine the influence that deviations in DC have on HAL, found it remained unaffected when DC error was less than 5%. Thus, a DC error less than 10% will impact HAL less than 0.5 HAL, which is negligible. Automatic computer vision HAL estimates were therefore comparable to manual frame-by-frame estimates. Practitioner Summary: Computer vision was used to automatically estimate exertion time, duty cycle and hand activity level from videos of workers performing industrial tasks.

Combining principles of Cognitive Load Theory and diagnostic error analysis for designing job aids: Effects on motivation and diagnostic performance in a process control task.

PubMed

Kluge, Annette; Grauel, Britta; Burkolter, Dina

2013-03-01

Two studies are presented in which the design of a procedural aid and the impact of an additional decision aid for process control were assessed. In Study 1, a procedural aid was developed that avoids imposing unnecessary extraneous cognitive load on novices when controlling a complex technical system. This newly designed procedural aid positively affected germane load, attention, satisfaction, motivation, knowledge acquisition and diagnostic speed for novel faults. In Study 2, the effect of a decision aid for use before the procedural aid was investigated, which was developed based on an analysis of diagnostic errors committed in Study 1. Results showed that novices were able to diagnose both novel faults and practised faults, and were even faster at diagnosing novel faults. This research contributes to the question of how to optimally support novices in dealing with technical faults in process control. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Test and Finite Element Analysis for Two Full-Scale Helicopter Crash Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Annett, Martin S.; Horta,Lucas G.

2011-01-01

Finite element analyses have been performed for two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of a composite deployable energy absorber under combined flight loads. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish the baseline loads. The use of an energy absorbing device reduced the impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to analytical results. Details of the full-scale crash tests and development of the system-integrated finite element model are briefly described along with direct comparisons of acceleration magnitudes and durations for the first full-scale crash test. Because load levels were significantly different between tests, models developed for the purposes of predicting the overall system response with external energy absorbers were not adequate under more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. Relative error comparisons were inadequate to guide model calibration. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used for the second full-scale crash test. The calibrated parameter set reduced 2-norm prediction error by 51% but did not improve impact shape orthogonality.

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States.

PubMed

Kim, Min-Uk; Moon, Kyong Whan; Sohn, Jong-Ryeul; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

2018-05-18

We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA) tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA) and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH₃), 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl), 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF), and 69% nitric acid (HNO₃). The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

A precision analogue integrator system for heavy current measurement in MFDC resistance spot welding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yu-Jun; Zhang, Zhong-Dian; Xia, Zhen-Xin; Zhu, Shi-Liang; Zhang, Rui

2016-02-01

In order to control and monitor the quality of middle frequency direct current (MFDC) resistance spot welding (RSW), precision measurement of the welding current up to 100 kA is required, for which Rogowski coils are the only viable current transducers at present. Thus, a highly accurate analogue integrator is the key to restoring the converted signals collected from the Rogowski coils. Previous studies emphasised that the integration drift is a major factor that influences the performance of analogue integrators, but capacitive leakage error also has a significant impact on the result, especially in long-time pulse integration. In this article, new methods of measuring and compensating capacitive leakage error are proposed to fabricate a precision analogue integrator system for MFDC RSW. A voltage holding test is carried out to measure the integration error caused by capacitive leakage, and an original integrator with a feedback adder is designed to compensate capacitive leakage error in real time. The experimental results and statistical analysis show that the new analogue integrator system could constrain both drift and capacitive leakage error, of which the effect is robust to different voltage levels of output signals. The total integration error is limited within  ±0.09 mV s-1 0.005% s-1 or full scale at a 95% confidence level, which makes it possible to achieve the precision measurement of the welding current of MFDC RSW with Rogowski coils of 0.1% accuracy class.

Rain radar measurement error estimation using data assimilation in an advection-based nowcasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merker, Claire; Ament, Felix; Clemens, Marco

2017-04-01

The quantification of measurement uncertainty for rain radar data remains challenging. Radar reflectivity measurements are affected, amongst other things, by calibration errors, noise, blocking and clutter, and attenuation. Their combined impact on measurement accuracy is difficult to quantify due to incomplete process understanding and complex interdependencies. An improved quality assessment of rain radar measurements is of interest for applications both in meteorology and hydrology, for example for precipitation ensemble generation, rainfall runoff simulations, or in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction. Especially a detailed description of the spatial and temporal structure of errors is beneficial in order to make best use of the areal precipitation information provided by radars. Radar precipitation ensembles are one promising approach to represent spatially variable radar measurement errors. We present a method combining ensemble radar precipitation nowcasting with data assimilation to estimate radar measurement uncertainty at each pixel. This combination of ensemble forecast and observation yields a consistent spatial and temporal evolution of the radar error field. We use an advection-based nowcasting method to generate an ensemble reflectivity forecast from initial data of a rain radar network. Subsequently, reflectivity data from single radars is assimilated into the forecast using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The spread of the resulting analysis ensemble provides a flow-dependent, spatially and temporally correlated reflectivity error estimate at each pixel. We will present first case studies that illustrate the method using data from a high-resolution X-band radar network.

Undergraduate medical students' perceptions and intentions regarding patient safety during clinical clerkship.

PubMed

Lee, Hoo-Yeon; Hahm, Myung-Il; Lee, Sang Gyu

2018-04-04

The purpose of this study was to examine undergraduate medical students' perceptions and intentions regarding patient safety during clinical clerkships. Cross-sectional study administered in face-to-face interviews using modified the Medical Student Safety Attitudes and Professionalism Survey (MSSAPS) from three colleges of medicine in Korea. We assessed medical students' perceptions of the cultures ('safety', 'teamwork', and 'error disclosure'), 'behavioural intentions' concerning patient safety issues and 'overall patient safety'. Confirmatory factor analysis and Spearman's correlation analyses was performed. In total, 194(91.9%) of the 211 third-year undergraduate students participated. 78% of medical students reported that the quality of care received by patients was impacted by teamwork during clinical rotations. Regarding error disclosure, positive scores ranged from 10% to 74%. Except for one question asking whether the disclosure of medical errors was an important component of patient safety (74%), the percentages of positive scores for all the other questions were below 20%. 41.2% of medical students have intention to disclose it when they saw a medical error committed by another team member. Many students had difficulty speaking up about medical errors. Error disclosure guidelines and educational efforts aimed at developing sophisticated communication skills are needed. This study may serve as a reference for other institutions planning patient safety education in their curricula. Assessing student perceptions of safety culture can provide clerkship directors and clinical service chiefs with information that enhances the educational environment and promotes patient safety.

Measurement Error and Equating Error in Power Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Gary W.; Jiang, Tao

2016-01-01

Power analysis is a fundamental prerequisite for conducting scientific research. Without power analysis the researcher has no way of knowing whether the sample size is large enough to detect the effect he or she is looking for. This paper demonstrates how psychometric factors such as measurement error and equating error affect the power of…

Sleep quality, but not quantity, is associated with self-perceived minor error rates among emergency department nurses.

PubMed

Weaver, Amy L; Stutzman, Sonja E; Supnet, Charlene; Olson, DaiWai M

2016-03-01

The emergency department (ED) is demanding and high risk. The impact of sleep quantity has been hypothesized to impact patient care. This study investigated the hypothesis that fatigue and impaired mentation, due to sleep disturbance and shortened overall sleeping hours, would lead to increased nursing errors. This is a prospective observational study of 30 ED nurses using self-administered survey and sleep architecture measured by wrist actigraphy as predictors of self-reported error rates. An actigraphy device was worn prior to working a 12-hour shift and nurses completed the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). Error rates were reported on a visual analog scale at the end of a 12-hour shift. The PSQI responses indicated that 73.3% of subjects had poor sleep quality. Lower sleep quality measured by actigraphy (hours asleep/hours in bed) was associated with higher self-perceived minor errors. Sleep quantity (total hours slept) was not associated with minor, moderate, nor severe errors. Our study found that ED nurses' sleep quality, immediately prior to a working 12-hour shift, is more predictive of error than sleep quantity. These results present evidence that a "good night's sleep" prior to working a nursing shift in the ED is beneficial for reducing minor errors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distinctions between fraud, bias, errors, misunderstanding, and incompetence.

PubMed

DeMets, D L

1997-12-01

Randomized clinical trials are challenging not only in their design and analysis, but in their conduct as well. Despite the best intentions and efforts, problems often arise in the conduct of trials, including errors, misunderstandings, and bias. In some instances, key players in a trial may discover that they are not able or competent to meet requirements of the study. In a few cases, fraudulent activity occurs. While none of these problems is desirable, randomized clinical trials are usually found sufficiently robust by many key individuals to produce valid results. Other problems are not tolerable. Confusion may arise among scientists, scientific and lay press, and the public about the distinctions between these areas and their implications. We shall try to define these problems and illustrate their impact through a series of examples.

Understanding overlay signatures using machine learning on non-lithography context information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overcast, Marshall; Mellegaard, Corey; Daniel, David; Habets, Boris; Erley, Georg; Guhlemann, Steffen; Thrun, Xaver; Buhl, Stefan; Tottewitz, Steven

2018-03-01

Overlay errors between two layers can be caused by non-lithography processes. While these errors can be compensated by the run-to-run system, such process and tool signatures are not always stable. In order to monitor the impact of non-lithography context on overlay at regular intervals, a systematic approach is needed. Using various machine learning techniques, significant context parameters that relate to deviating overlay signatures are automatically identified. Once the most influential context parameters are found, a run-to-run simulation is performed to see how much improvement can be obtained. The resulting analysis shows good potential for reducing the influence of hidden context parameters on overlay performance. Non-lithographic contexts are significant contributors, and their automatic detection and classification will enable the overlay roadmap, given the corresponding control capabilities.

An Overview of Atmospheric Composition OSSE Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

daSilva, Arlinda

2012-01-01

A model-based Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a framework for numerical experimentation in which observables are simulated from fields generated by an earth system model, including a parameterized description of observational error characteristics. Simulated observations can be used for sampling studies, quantifying errors in analysis or retrieval algorithms, and ultimately being a planning tool for designing new observing missions. While this framework has traditionally been used to assess the impact of observations on numerical weather prediction, it has a much broader applicability, in particular to aerosols and chemical constituents. In this talk we will give a general overview of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with focus on its emerging atmospheric composition component.

Transportation of radionuclides in urban environs: draft environmental assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finley, N.C.; Aldrich, D.C.; Daniel, S.L.

1980-07-01

This report assesses the environmental consequences of the transportation of radioactive materials in densely populated urban areas, including estimates of the radiological, nonradiological, and social impacts arising from this process. The chapters of the report and the appendices which follow detail the methodology and results for each of four causative event categories: incident free transport, vehicular accidents, human errors or deviations from accepted quality assurance practices, and sabotage or malevolent acts. The numerical results are expressed in terms of the expected radiological and economic impacts from each. Following these discussions, alternatives to the current transport practice are considered. Then, themore » detailed analysis is extended from a limited area of New York city to other urban areas. The appendices contain the data bases and specific models used to evaluate these impacts, as well as discussions of chemical toxicity and the social impacts of radioactive material transport in urban areas. The latter are evaluated for each causative event category in terms of psychological, sociological, political, legal, and organizational impacts. The report is followed by an extensive bibliography covering the many fields of study which were required in performing the analysis.« less

GPS Data Filtration Method for Drive Cycle Analysis Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duran, A.; Earleywine, M.

2013-02-01

When employing GPS data acquisition systems to capture vehicle drive-cycle information, a number of errors often appear in the raw data samples, such as sudden signal loss, extraneous or outlying data points, speed drifting, and signal white noise, all of which limit the quality of field data for use in downstream applications. Unaddressed, these errors significantly impact the reliability of source data and limit the effectiveness of traditional drive-cycle analysis approaches and vehicle simulation software. Without reliable speed and time information, the validity of derived metrics for drive cycles, such as acceleration, power, and distance, become questionable. This study exploresmore » some of the common sources of error present in raw onboard GPS data and presents a detailed filtering process designed to correct for these issues. Test data from both light and medium/heavy duty applications are examined to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filtration process across the range of vehicle vocations. Graphical comparisons of raw and filtered cycles are presented, and statistical analyses are performed to determine the effects of the proposed filtration process on raw data. Finally, an evaluation of the overall benefits of data filtration on raw GPS data and present potential areas for continued research is presented.« less

Impact of shorter wavelengths on optical quality for laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wissinger, Alan B.; Noll, Robert J.; Tsacoyeanes, James G.; Tausanovitch, Jeanette R.

1993-01-01

This study explores parametrically as a function of wavelength the degrading effects of several common optical aberrations (defocus, astigmatism, wavefront tilts, etc.), using the heterodyne mixing efficiency factor as the merit function. A 60 cm diameter aperture beam expander with an expansion ratio of 15:1 and a primary mirror focal ratio of f/2 was designed for the study. An HDOS copyrighted analysis program determined the value of merit function for various optical misalignments. With sensitivities provided by the analysis, preliminary error budget and tolerance allocations were made for potential optical wavefront errors and boresight errors during laser shot transit time. These were compared with the baseline l.5 m CO2 LAWS and the optical fabrication state of the art (SOA) as characterized by the Hubble Space Telescope. Reducing wavelength and changing optical design resulted in optical quality tolerances within the SOA both at 2 and 1 micrometers. However, advanced sensing and control devices would be necessary to maintain on-orbit alignment. Optical tolerance for maintaining boresight stability would have to be tightened by a factor of 1.8 for a 2 micrometers system and by 3.6 for a 1 micrometers system relative to the baseline CO2 LAWS. Available SOA components could be used for operation at 2 micrometers but operation at 1 micrometers does not appear feasible.

Impact of shorter wavelengths on optical quality for laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wissinger, Alan B.; Noll, Robert J.; Tsacoyeanes, James G.; Tausanovitch, Jeanette R.

1993-01-01

This study explores parametrically as a function of wavelength the degrading effects of several common optical aberrations (defocus, astigmatism, wavefronttilts, etc.), using the heterodyne mixing efficiency factor as the merit function. A 60 cm diameter aperture beam expander with an expansion ratio of 15:1 and a primary mirror focal ratio of f/2 was designed for the study. An HDOS copyrighted analysis program determined the value of merit function for various optical misalignments. With sensitivities provided by the analysis, preliminary error budget and tolerance allocations were made for potential optical wavefront errors and boresight errors during laser shot transit time. These were compared with the baseline 1.5 m CO2 laws and the optical fabrication state of the art (SOA) as characterized by the Hubble Space Telescope. Reducing wavelength and changing optical design resulted in optical quality tolerances within the SOA both at 2 and 1 micrometer. However, advanced sensing and control devices would be necessary to be tightened by a factory of 1.8 for a 2 micrometer system and by 3.6 for a 1 micrometer system relative to the baseline CO2 LAWS. Available SOA components could be used for operation at 2 micrometers but operation at 1 micrometer does not appear feasible.

Development of an FBG Sensor Array for Multi-Impact Source Localization on CFRP Structures.

PubMed

Jiang, Mingshun; Sai, Yaozhang; Geng, Xiangyi; Sui, Qingmei; Liu, Xiaohui; Jia, Lei

2016-10-24

We proposed and studied an impact detection system based on a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor array and multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm to determine the location and the number of low velocity impacts on a carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) plate. A FBG linear array, consisting of seven FBG sensors, was used for detecting the ultrasonic signals from impacts. The edge-filter method was employed for signal demodulation. Shannon wavelet transform was used to extract narrow band signals from the impacts. The Gerschgorin disc theorem was used for estimating the number of impacts. We used the MUSIC algorithm to obtain the coordinates of multi-impacts. The impact detection system was tested on a 500 mm × 500 mm × 1.5 mm CFRP plate. The results show that the maximum error and average error of the multi-impacts' localization are 9.2 mm and 7.4 mm, respectively.

Impact of numerical choices on water conservation in the E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 1 (EAM V1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Kai; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark A.

The conservation of total water is an important numerical feature for global Earth system models. Even small conservation problems in the water budget can lead to systematic errors in century-long simulations for sea level rise projection. This study quantifies and reduces various sources of water conservation error in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Several sources of water conservation error have been identified during the development of the version 1 (V1) model. The largest errors result from the numerical coupling between the resolved dynamics and the parameterized sub-grid physics. A hybrid coupling using different methods formore » fluid dynamics and tracer transport provides a reduction of water conservation error by a factor of 50 at 1° horizontal resolution as well as consistent improvements at other resolutions. The second largest error source is the use of an overly simplified relationship between the surface moisture flux and latent heat flux at the interface between the host model and the turbulence parameterization. This error can be prevented by applying the same (correct) relationship throughout the entire model. Two additional types of conservation error that result from correcting the surface moisture flux and clipping negative water concentrations can be avoided by using mass-conserving fixers. With all four error sources addressed, the water conservation error in the V1 model is negligible and insensitive to the horizontal resolution. The associated changes in the long-term statistics of the main atmospheric features are small. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to show that the magnitudes of the conservation errors decrease strongly with temporal resolution but increase with horizontal resolution. The increased vertical resolution in the new model results in a very thin model layer at the Earth’s surface, which amplifies the conservation error associated with the surface moisture flux correction. We note that for some of the identified error sources, the proposed fixers are remedies rather than solutions to the problems at their roots. Future improvements in time integration would be beneficial for this model.« less

Impact of numerical choices on water conservation in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark A.; Wan, Hui; Leung, Ruby; Ma, Po-Lun; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Wolfe, Jon; Lin, Wuyin; Singh, Balwinder; Burrows, Susannah; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, Hailong; Qian, Yun; Tang, Qi; Caldwell, Peter; Xie, Shaocheng

2018-06-01

The conservation of total water is an important numerical feature for global Earth system models. Even small conservation problems in the water budget can lead to systematic errors in century-long simulations. This study quantifies and reduces various sources of water conservation error in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Several sources of water conservation error have been identified during the development of the version 1 (V1) model. The largest errors result from the numerical coupling between the resolved dynamics and the parameterized sub-grid physics. A hybrid coupling using different methods for fluid dynamics and tracer transport provides a reduction of water conservation error by a factor of 50 at 1° horizontal resolution as well as consistent improvements at other resolutions. The second largest error source is the use of an overly simplified relationship between the surface moisture flux and latent heat flux at the interface between the host model and the turbulence parameterization. This error can be prevented by applying the same (correct) relationship throughout the entire model. Two additional types of conservation error that result from correcting the surface moisture flux and clipping negative water concentrations can be avoided by using mass-conserving fixers. With all four error sources addressed, the water conservation error in the V1 model becomes negligible and insensitive to the horizontal resolution. The associated changes in the long-term statistics of the main atmospheric features are small. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to show that the magnitudes of the conservation errors in early V1 versions decrease strongly with temporal resolution but increase with horizontal resolution. The increased vertical resolution in V1 results in a very thin model layer at the Earth's surface, which amplifies the conservation error associated with the surface moisture flux correction. We note that for some of the identified error sources, the proposed fixers are remedies rather than solutions to the problems at their roots. Future improvements in time integration would be beneficial for V1.

Accuracy of CT-based attenuation correction in PET/CT bone imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abella, Monica; Alessio, Adam M.; Mankoff, David A.; MacDonald, Lawrence R.; Vaquero, Juan Jose; Desco, Manuel; Kinahan, Paul E.

2012-05-01

We evaluate the accuracy of scaling CT images for attenuation correction of PET data measured for bone. While the standard tri-linear approach has been well tested for soft tissues, the impact of CT-based attenuation correction on the accuracy of tracer uptake in bone has not been reported in detail. We measured the accuracy of attenuation coefficients of bovine femur segments and patient data using a tri-linear method applied to CT images obtained at different kVp settings. Attenuation values at 511 keV obtained with a 68Ga/68Ge transmission scan were used as a reference standard. The impact of inaccurate attenuation images on PET standardized uptake values (SUVs) was then evaluated using simulated emission images and emission images from five patients with elevated levels of FDG uptake in bone at disease sites. The CT-based linear attenuation images of the bovine femur segments underestimated the true values by 2.9 ± 0.3% for cancellous bone regardless of kVp. For compact bone the underestimation ranged from 1.3% at 140 kVp to 14.1% at 80 kVp. In the patient scans at 140 kVp the underestimation was approximately 2% averaged over all bony regions. The sensitivity analysis indicated that errors in PET SUVs in bone are approximately proportional to errors in the estimated attenuation coefficients for the same regions. The variability in SUV bias also increased approximately linearly with the error in linear attenuation coefficients. These results suggest that bias in bone uptake SUVs of PET tracers ranges from 2.4% to 5.9% when using CT scans at 140 and 120 kVp for attenuation correction. Lower kVp scans have the potential for considerably more error in dense bone. This bias is present in any PET tracer with bone uptake but may be clinically insignificant for many imaging tasks. However, errors from CT-based attenuation correction methods should be carefully evaluated if quantitation of tracer uptake in bone is important.

A Comprehensive Quality Assurance Program for Personnel and Procedures in Radiation Oncology: Value of Voluntary Error Reporting and Checklists

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalapurakal, John A., E-mail: j-kalapurakal@northwestern.edu; Zafirovski, Aleksandar; Smith, Jeffery

Purpose: This report describes the value of a voluntary error reporting system and the impact of a series of quality assurance (QA) measures including checklists and timeouts on reported error rates in patients receiving radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: A voluntary error reporting system was instituted with the goal of recording errors, analyzing their clinical impact, and guiding the implementation of targeted QA measures. In response to errors committed in relation to treatment of the wrong patient, wrong treatment site, and wrong dose, a novel initiative involving the use of checklists and timeouts for all staff was implemented. The impactmore » of these and other QA initiatives was analyzed. Results: From 2001 to 2011, a total of 256 errors in 139 patients after 284,810 external radiation treatments (0.09% per treatment) were recorded in our voluntary error database. The incidence of errors related to patient/tumor site, treatment planning/data transfer, and patient setup/treatment delivery was 9%, 40.2%, and 50.8%, respectively. The compliance rate for the checklists and timeouts initiative was 97% (P<.001). These and other QA measures resulted in a significant reduction in many categories of errors. The introduction of checklists and timeouts has been successful in eliminating errors related to wrong patient, wrong site, and wrong dose. Conclusions: A comprehensive QA program that regularly monitors staff compliance together with a robust voluntary error reporting system can reduce or eliminate errors that could result in serious patient injury. We recommend the adoption of these relatively simple QA initiatives including the use of checklists and timeouts for all staff to improve the safety of patients undergoing radiation therapy in the modern era.« less

Supporting Dictation Speech Recognition Error Correction: The Impact of External Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, Yongmei; Zhou, Lina

2011-01-01

Although speech recognition technology has made remarkable progress, its wide adoption is still restricted by notable effort made and frustration experienced by users while correcting speech recognition errors. One of the promising ways to improve error correction is by providing user support. Although support mechanisms have been proposed for…

A Practical Methodology for Quantifying Random and Systematic Components of Unexplained Variance in a Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, Richard; Obara, Clifford J.; Goodman, Wesley L.

2012-01-01

This paper documents a check standard wind tunnel test conducted in the Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel (0.3M TCT) that was designed and analyzed using the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE). The test designed to partition the unexplained variance of typical wind tunnel data samples into two constituent components, one attributable to ordinary random error, and one attributable to systematic error induced by covariate effects. Covariate effects in wind tunnel testing are discussed, with examples. The impact of systematic (non-random) unexplained variance on the statistical independence of sequential measurements is reviewed. The corresponding correlation among experimental errors is discussed, as is the impact of such correlation on experimental results generally. The specific experiment documented herein was organized as a formal test for the presence of unexplained variance in representative samples of wind tunnel data, in order to quantify the frequency with which such systematic error was detected, and its magnitude relative to ordinary random error. Levels of systematic and random error reported here are representative of those quantified in other facilities, as cited in the references.

A service evaluation of on-line image-guided radiotherapy to lower extremity sarcoma: Investigating the workload implications of a 3 mm action level for image assessment and correction prior to delivery.

PubMed

Taylor, C; Parker, J; Stratford, J; Warren, M

2018-05-01

Although all systematic and random positional setup errors can be corrected for in entirety during on-line image-guided radiotherapy, the use of a specified action level, below which no correction occurs, is also an option. The following service evaluation aimed to investigate the use of this 3 mm action level for on-line image assessment and correction (online, systematic set-up error and weekly evaluation) for lower extremity sarcoma, and understand the impact on imaging frequency and patient positioning error within one cancer centre. All patients were immobilised using a thermoplastic shell attached to a plastic base and an individual moulded footrest. A retrospective analysis of 30 patients was performed. Patient setup and correctional data derived from cone beam CT analysis was retrieved. The timing, frequency and magnitude of corrections were evaluated. The population systematic and random error was derived. 20% of patients had no systematic corrections over the duration of treatment, and 47% had one. The maximum number of systematic corrections per course of radiotherapy was 4, which occurred for 2 patients. 34% of episodes occurred within the first 5 fractions. All patients had at least one observed translational error during their treatment greater than 0.3 cm, and 80% of patients had at least one observed translational error during their treatment greater than 0.5 cm. The population systematic error was 0.14 cm, 0.10 cm, 0.14 cm and random error was 0.27 cm, 0.22 cm, 0.23 cm in the lateral, caudocranial and anteroposterial directions. The required Planning Target Volume margin for the study population was 0.55 cm, 0.41 cm and 0.50 cm in the lateral, caudocranial and anteroposterial directions. The 3 mm action level for image assessment and correction prior to delivery reduced the imaging burden and focussed intervention on patients that exhibited greater positional variability. This strategy could be an efficient deployment of departmental resources if full daily correction of positional setup error is not possible. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An Analysis of the Impact of RFID Technology on Inventory Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rekik, Yacine

Nowadays, most enterprises undertake large investments in order to implement information systems that support decision making for managing inventories. Nevertheless, if data collected from the physical processes used to feed these systems are not correct, there will be severe impacts on business performance. Inventory inaccuracy occurs when the inventory level in the Information System is not in agreement with the physically available inventory. In this chapter, we first describe the major factors generating inventory inaccuracy. Then, we provide situations permitting to manage an inventory system subject to errors. We provide a framework to model the inventory inaccuracy issue and focus on the impact of advanced identification systems, such as that provided by RFID technology, in improving the performance of a supply chain subject to inventory inaccuracies.

Latent human error analysis and efficient improvement strategies by fuzzy TOPSIS in aviation maintenance tasks.

PubMed

Chiu, Ming-Chuan; Hsieh, Min-Chih

2016-05-01

The purposes of this study were to develop a latent human error analysis process, to explore the factors of latent human error in aviation maintenance tasks, and to provide an efficient improvement strategy for addressing those errors. First, we used HFACS and RCA to define the error factors related to aviation maintenance tasks. Fuzzy TOPSIS with four criteria was applied to evaluate the error factors. Results show that 1) adverse physiological states, 2) physical/mental limitations, and 3) coordination, communication, and planning are the factors related to airline maintenance tasks that could be addressed easily and efficiently. This research establishes a new analytic process for investigating latent human error and provides a strategy for analyzing human error using fuzzy TOPSIS. Our analysis process complements shortages in existing methodologies by incorporating improvement efficiency, and it enhances the depth and broadness of human error analysis methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The impact of 3D volume of interest definition on accuracy and precision of activity estimation in quantitative SPECT and planar processing methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Bin; Frey, Eric C.

2010-06-01

Accurate and precise estimation of organ activities is essential for treatment planning in targeted radionuclide therapy. We have previously evaluated the impact of processing methodology, statistical noise and variability in activity distribution and anatomy on the accuracy and precision of organ activity estimates obtained with quantitative SPECT (QSPECT) and planar (QPlanar) processing. Another important factor impacting the accuracy and precision of organ activity estimates is accuracy of and variability in the definition of organ regions of interest (ROI) or volumes of interest (VOI). The goal of this work was thus to systematically study the effects of VOI definition on the reliability of activity estimates. To this end, we performed Monte Carlo simulation studies using randomly perturbed and shifted VOIs to assess the impact on organ activity estimates. The 3D NCAT phantom was used with activities that modeled clinically observed 111In ibritumomab tiuxetan distributions. In order to study the errors resulting from misdefinitions due to manual segmentation errors, VOIs of the liver and left kidney were first manually defined. Each control point was then randomly perturbed to one of the nearest or next-nearest voxels in three ways: with no, inward or outward directional bias, resulting in random perturbation, erosion or dilation, respectively, of the VOIs. In order to study the errors resulting from the misregistration of VOIs, as would happen, e.g. in the case where the VOIs were defined using a misregistered anatomical image, the reconstructed SPECT images or projections were shifted by amounts ranging from -1 to 1 voxels in increments of with 0.1 voxels in both the transaxial and axial directions. The activity estimates from the shifted reconstructions or projections were compared to those from the originals, and average errors were computed for the QSPECT and QPlanar methods, respectively. For misregistration, errors in organ activity estimations were linear in the shift for both the QSPECT and QPlanar methods. QPlanar was less sensitive to object definition perturbations than QSPECT, especially for dilation and erosion cases. Up to 1 voxel misregistration or misdefinition resulted in up to 8% error in organ activity estimates, with the largest errors for small or low uptake organs. Both types of VOI definition errors produced larger errors in activity estimates for a small and low uptake organs (i.e. -7.5% to 5.3% for the left kidney) than for a large and high uptake organ (i.e. -2.9% to 2.1% for the liver). We observed that misregistration generally had larger effects than misdefinition, with errors ranging from -7.2% to 8.4%. The different imaging methods evaluated responded differently to the errors from misregistration and misdefinition. We found that QSPECT was more sensitive to misdefinition errors, but less sensitive to misregistration errors, as compared to the QPlanar method. Thus, sensitivity to VOI definition errors should be an important criterion in evaluating quantitative imaging methods.

Improved L-BFGS diagonal preconditioners for a large-scale 4D-Var inversion system: application to CO2 flux constraints and analysis error calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bousserez, Nicolas; Henze, Daven; Bowman, Kevin; Liu, Junjie; Jones, Dylan; Keller, Martin; Deng, Feng

2013-04-01

This work presents improved analysis error estimates for 4D-Var systems. From operational NWP models to top-down constraints on trace gas emissions, many of today's data assimilation and inversion systems in atmospheric science rely on variational approaches. This success is due to both the mathematical clarity of these formulations and the availability of computationally efficient minimization algorithms. However, unlike Kalman Filter-based algorithms, these methods do not provide an estimate of the analysis or forecast error covariance matrices, these error statistics being propagated only implicitly by the system. From both a practical (cycling assimilation) and scientific perspective, assessing uncertainties in the solution of the variational problem is critical. For large-scale linear systems, deterministic or randomization approaches can be considered based on the equivalence between the inverse Hessian of the cost function and the covariance matrix of analysis error. For perfectly quadratic systems, like incremental 4D-Var, Lanczos/Conjugate-Gradient algorithms have proven to be most efficient in generating low-rank approximations of the Hessian matrix during the minimization. For weakly non-linear systems though, the Limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS), a quasi-Newton descent algorithm, is usually considered the best method for the minimization. Suitable for large-scale optimization, this method allows one to generate an approximation to the inverse Hessian using the latest m vector/gradient pairs generated during the minimization, m depending upon the available core memory. At each iteration, an initial low-rank approximation to the inverse Hessian has to be provided, which is called preconditioning. The ability of the preconditioner to retain useful information from previous iterations largely determines the efficiency of the algorithm. Here we assess the performance of different preconditioners to estimate the inverse Hessian of a large-scale 4D-Var system. The impact of using the diagonal preconditioners proposed by Gilbert and Le Maréchal (1989) instead of the usual Oren-Spedicato scalar will be first presented. We will also introduce new hybrid methods that combine randomization estimates of the analysis error variance with L-BFGS diagonal updates to improve the inverse Hessian approximation. Results from these new algorithms will be evaluated against standard large ensemble Monte-Carlo simulations. The methods explored here are applied to the problem of inferring global atmospheric CO2 fluxes using remote sensing observations, and are intended to be integrated with the future NASA Carbon Monitoring System.

Jason-2 systematic error analysis in the GPS derived orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melachroinos, S.; Lemoine, F. G.; Zelensky, N. P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; Chinn, D. S.

2011-12-01

Several results related to global or regional sea level changes still too often rely on the assumption that orbit errors coming from station coordinates adoption can be neglected in the total error budget (Ceri et al. 2010). In particular Instantaneous crust-fixed coordinates are obtained by adding to the linear ITRF model the geophysical high-frequency variations. In principle, geocenter motion should also be included in this computation, in order to reference these coordinates to the center of mass of the whole Earth. This correction is currently not applied when computing GDR orbits. Cerri et al. (2010) performed an analysis of systematic errors common to all coordinates along the North/South direction, as this type of bias, also known as Z-shift, has a clear impact on MSL estimates due to the unequal distribution of continental surface in the northern and southern hemispheres. The goal of this paper is to specifically study the main source of errors which comes from the current imprecision in the Z-axis realization of the frame. We focus here on the time variability of this Z-shift, which we can decompose in a drift and a periodic component due to the presumably omitted geocenter motion. A series of Jason-2 GPS-only orbits have been computed at NASA GSFC, using both IGS05 and IGS08. These orbits have been shown to agree radially at less than 1 cm RMS vs our SLR/DORIS std0905 and std1007 reduced-dynamic orbits and in comparison with orbits produced by other analysis centers (Melachroinos et al. 2011). Our GPS-only JASON-2 orbit accuracy is assessed using a number of tests including analysis of independent SLR and altimeter crossover residuals, orbit overlap differences, and direct comparison to orbits generated at GSFC using SLR and DORIS tracking, and to orbits generated externally at other centers. Tests based on SLR-crossover residuals provide the best performance indicator for independent validation of the NASA/GSFC GPS-only reduced dynamic orbits. Reduced dynamic versus dynamic orbit differences are used to characterize the remaining force model error and TRF instability. At first, we quantify the effect of a North/South displacement of the tracking reference points for each of the three techniques. We then compare these results to the study of Morel and Willis (2005) and Ceri et al. (2010). We extend the analysis to the most recent Jason-2 cycles. We evaluate the GPS vs SLR & DORIS orbits produced using the GEODYN.

Identifying patient safety problems associated with information technology in general practice: an analysis of incident reports.

PubMed

Magrabi, Farah; Liaw, Siaw Teng; Arachi, Diana; Runciman, William; Coiera, Enrico; Kidd, Michael R

2016-11-01

To identify the categories of problems with information technology (IT), which affect patient safety in general practice. General practitioners (GPs) reported incidents online or by telephone between May 2012 and November 2013. Incidents were reviewed against an existing classification for problems associated with IT and the clinical process impacted. 87 GPs across Australia. Types of problems, consequences and clinical processes. GPs reported 90 incidents involving IT which had an observable impact on the delivery of care, including actual patient harm as well as near miss events. Practice systems and medications were the most affected clinical processes. Problems with IT disrupted clinical workflow, wasted time and caused frustration. Issues with user interfaces, routine updates to software packages and drug databases, and the migration of records from one package to another generated clinical errors that were unique to IT; some could affect many patients at once. Human factors issues gave rise to some errors that have always existed with paper records but are more likely to occur and cause harm with IT. Such errors were linked to slips in concentration, multitasking, distractions and interruptions. Problems with patient identification and hybrid records generated errors that were in principle no different to paper records. Problems associated with IT include perennial risks with paper records, but additional disruptions in workflow and hazards for patients unique to IT, occasionally affecting multiple patients. Surveillance for such hazards may have general utility, but particularly in the context of migrating historical records to new systems and software updates to existing systems. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Addressing the impact of environmental uncertainty in plankton model calibration with a dedicated software system: the Marine Model Optimization Testbed (MarMOT 1.1 alpha)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemmings, J. C. P.; Challenor, P. G.

2012-04-01

A wide variety of different plankton system models have been coupled with ocean circulation models, with the aim of understanding and predicting aspects of environmental change. However, an ability to make reliable inferences about real-world processes from the model behaviour demands a quantitative understanding of model error that remains elusive. Assessment of coupled model output is inhibited by relatively limited observing system coverage of biogeochemical components. Any direct assessment of the plankton model is further inhibited by uncertainty in the physical state. Furthermore, comparative evaluation of plankton models on the basis of their design is inhibited by the sensitivity of their dynamics to many adjustable parameters. Parameter uncertainty has been widely addressed by calibrating models at data-rich ocean sites. However, relatively little attention has been given to quantifying uncertainty in the physical fields required by the plankton models at these sites, and tendencies in the biogeochemical properties due to the effects of horizontal processes are often neglected. Here we use model twin experiments, in which synthetic data are assimilated to estimate a system's known "true" parameters, to investigate the impact of error in a plankton model's environmental input data. The experiments are supported by a new software tool, the Marine Model Optimization Testbed, designed for rigorous analysis of plankton models in a multi-site 1-D framework. Simulated errors are derived from statistical characterizations of the mixed layer depth, the horizontal flux divergence tendencies of the biogeochemical tracers and the initial state. Plausible patterns of uncertainty in these data are shown to produce strong temporal and spatial variability in the expected simulation error variance over an annual cycle, indicating variation in the significance attributable to individual model-data differences. An inverse scheme using ensemble-based estimates of the simulation error variance to allow for this environment error performs well compared with weighting schemes used in previous calibration studies, giving improved estimates of the known parameters. The efficacy of the new scheme in real-world applications will depend on the quality of statistical characterizations of the input data. Practical approaches towards developing reliable characterizations are discussed.

Quantification of airport community noise impact in terms of noise levels, population density, and human subjective response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, R.

1981-01-01

The Fraction Impact Method (FIM), developed by the National Research Council (NRC) for assessing the amount and physiological effect of noise, is described. Here, the number of people exposed to a given level of noise is multiplied by a weighting factor that depends on noise level. It is pointed out that the Aircraft-noise Levels and Annoyance MOdel (ALAMO), recently developed at NASA Langley Research Center, can perform the NRC fractional impact calculations for given modes of operation at any U.S. airport. The sensitivity of these calculations to errors in estimates of population, noise level, and human subjective response is discussed. It is found that a change in source noise causes a substantially smaller change in contour area than would be predicted simply on the basis of inverse square law considerations. Another finding is that the impact calculations are generally less sensitive to source noise errors than to systematic errors in population or subjective response.

Effects of Correlated Errors on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romero-Wolf, Andres; Jacobs, C. S.

2011-01-01

As thermal errors are reduced instrumental and troposphere correlated errors will increasingly become more important. Work in progress shows that troposphere covariance error models improve data analysis results. We expect to see stronger effects with higher data rates. Temperature modeling of delay errors may further reduce temporal correlations in the data.

Investigation into diagnostic agreement using automated computer-assisted histopathology pattern recognition image analysis.

PubMed

Webster, Joshua D; Michalowski, Aleksandra M; Dwyer, Jennifer E; Corps, Kara N; Wei, Bih-Rong; Juopperi, Tarja; Hoover, Shelley B; Simpson, R Mark

2012-01-01

The extent to which histopathology pattern recognition image analysis (PRIA) agrees with microscopic assessment has not been established. Thus, a commercial PRIA platform was evaluated in two applications using whole-slide images. Substantial agreement, lacking significant constant or proportional errors, between PRIA and manual morphometric image segmentation was obtained for pulmonary metastatic cancer areas (Passing/Bablok regression). Bland-Altman analysis indicated heteroscedastic measurements and tendency toward increasing variance with increasing tumor burden, but no significant trend in mean bias. The average between-methods percent tumor content difference was -0.64. Analysis of between-methods measurement differences relative to the percent tumor magnitude revealed that method disagreement had an impact primarily in the smallest measurements (tumor burden <3%). Regression-based 95% limits of agreement indicated substantial agreement for method interchangeability. Repeated measures revealed concordance correlation of >0.988, indicating high reproducibility for both methods, yet PRIA reproducibility was superior (C.V.: PRIA = 7.4, manual = 17.1). Evaluation of PRIA on morphologically complex teratomas led to diagnostic agreement with pathologist assessments of pluripotency on subsets of teratomas. Accommodation of the diversity of teratoma histologic features frequently resulted in detrimental trade-offs, increasing PRIA error elsewhere in images. PRIA error was nonrandom and influenced by variations in histomorphology. File-size limitations encountered while training algorithms and consequences of spectral image processing dominance contributed to diagnostic inaccuracies experienced for some teratomas. PRIA appeared better suited for tissues with limited phenotypic diversity. Technical improvements may enhance diagnostic agreement, and consistent pathologist input will benefit further development and application of PRIA.

Assessment and Verification of SLS Block 1-B Exploration Upper Stage State and Stage Disposal Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patrick, Sean; Oliver, Emerson

2018-01-01

One of the SLS Navigation System's key performance requirements is a constraint on the payload system's delta-v allocation to correct for insertion errors due to vehicle state uncertainty at payload separation. The SLS navigation team has developed a Delta-Delta-V analysis approach to assess the effect on trajectory correction maneuver (TCM) design needed to correct for navigation errors. This approach differs from traditional covariance analysis based methods and makes no assumptions with regard to the propagation of the state dynamics. This allows for consideration of non-linearity in the propagation of state uncertainties. The Delta-Delta-V analysis approach re-optimizes perturbed SLS mission trajectories by varying key mission states in accordance with an assumed state error. The state error is developed from detailed vehicle 6-DOF Monte Carlo analysis or generated using covariance analysis. These perturbed trajectories are compared to a nominal trajectory to determine necessary TCM design. To implement this analysis approach, a tool set was developed which combines the functionality of a 3-DOF trajectory optimization tool, Copernicus, and a detailed 6-DOF vehicle simulation tool, Marshall Aerospace Vehicle Representation in C (MAVERIC). In addition to delta-v allocation constraints on SLS navigation performance, SLS mission requirement dictate successful upper stage disposal. Due to engine and propellant constraints, the SLS Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) must dispose into heliocentric space by means of a lunar fly-by maneuver. As with payload delta-v allocation, upper stage disposal maneuvers must place the EUS on a trajectory that maximizes the probability of achieving a heliocentric orbit post Lunar fly-by considering all sources of vehicle state uncertainty prior to the maneuver. To ensure disposal, the SLS navigation team has developed an analysis approach to derive optimal disposal guidance targets. This approach maximizes the state error covariance prior to the maneuver to develop and re-optimize a nominal disposal maneuver (DM) target that, if achieved, would maximize the potential for successful upper stage disposal. For EUS disposal analysis, a set of two tools was developed. The first considers only the nominal pre-disposal maneuver state, vehicle constraints, and an a priori estimate of the state error covariance. In the analysis, the optimal nominal disposal target is determined. This is performed by re-formulating the trajectory optimization to consider constraints on the eigenvectors of the error ellipse applied to the nominal trajectory. A bisection search methodology is implemented in the tool to refine these dispersions resulting in the maximum dispersion feasible for successful disposal via lunar fly-by. Success is defined based on the probability that the vehicle will not impact the lunar surface and will achieve a characteristic energy (C3) relative to the Earth such that it is no longer in the Earth-Moon system. The second tool propagates post-disposal maneuver states to determine the success of disposal for provided trajectory achieved states. This is performed using the optimized nominal target within the 6-DOF vehicle simulation. This paper will discuss the application of the Delta-Delta-V analysis approach for performance evaluation as well as trajectory re-optimization so as to demonstrate the system's capability in meeting performance constraints. Additionally, further discussion of the implementation of assessing disposal analysis will be provided.

The impact of long work hours and shift work on cognitive errors in nurses.

PubMed

Rhéaume, Ann; Mullen, Jane

2018-01-01

Pilot study to examine the impact of long work hours and shift work on cognitive errors in nurses. Twelve-hour shifts are more commonly used in hospital settings and there is growing concern over the impact that extended and irregular work hours have on nurses' well-being and performance. Twenty-eight nurses working different shifts (8-hr days and 12-hr rotation) participated in this study. Nurses were assessed at the beginning of four consecutive shifts using actigraphy, a sleep diary and an after work questionnaire. Nurses working 12-hr rotations had less total sleep time and less sleep efficiency than 8-hr day nurses. Twelve-hour rotation nurses also napped more than their counterparts. There were no differences between the two groups with respect to cognitive errors. Twelve-hour rotations have a negative effect on nurses' sleep patterns. There is no evidence indicating 12-hr rotations increased errors. Nurse managers can implement specific strategies, such as greater shift work flexibility and designated quiet time, to reduce the effects of disturbed sleep patterns in nurses. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantitative validation of carbon-fiber laminate low velocity impact simulations

DOE PAGES

English, Shawn A.; Briggs, Timothy M.; Nelson, Stacy M.

2015-09-26

Simulations of low velocity impact with a flat cylindrical indenter upon a carbon fiber fabric reinforced polymer laminate are rigorously validated. Comparison of the impact energy absorption between the model and experiment is used as the validation metric. Additionally, non-destructive evaluation, including ultrasonic scans and three-dimensional computed tomography, provide qualitative validation of the models. The simulations include delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. An orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model, capable of predicting progressive damage and failure, is developed in conjunction and described. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter uncertainties is used to predict a response distribution which ismore » then compared to experimental output using appropriate statistical methods. Lastly, the model form errors are exposed and corrected for use in an additional blind validation analysis. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating low velocity impact in structures of interest.« less

The impact of preclinical irreproducibility on drug development.

PubMed

Freedman, L P; Gibson, M C

2015-01-01

The development of novel therapeutics depends and builds upon the validity and reproducibility of previously published data and findings. Yet irreproducibility is pervasive in preclinical life science research and can be traced to cumulative errors or flaws in several areas, including reference materials, study design, laboratory protocols, and data collection and analysis. The expanded development and use of consensus-based standards and well-documented best practices is needed to both enhance reproducibility and drive therapeutic innovations. © 2014 ASCPT.

Consequences of incomplete surface energy balance closure for CO2 fluxes from open-path CO2/H2O infrared gas analyzers

Treesearch

Heping Liu; James T. Randerson; Jamie Lindfors; William J. Massman; Thomas Foken

2006-01-01

We present an approach for assessing the impact of systematic biases in measured energy fluxes on CO2 flux estimates obtained from open-path eddy-covariance systems. In our analysis, we present equations to analyse the propagation of errors through the Webb, Pearman, and Leuning (WPL) algorithm [Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 106, 85­100, 1980] that is widely used to...

Impact of Flow-Dependent Error Correlations and Tropospheric Chemistry on Assimilated Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, K.; Stajner, I.; Hayashi, H.; Pawson, S.; Jones, D. B. A.

2003-01-01

The presentation compares different versions of a global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office. The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) total and partial ozone column retrievals are the sole data assimilated in all of the experiments presented. We study the impact of changing the forecast error covariance model from a version assuming static correlations with a one that captures a short-term Lagrangian evolution of those correlations. This is further combined with a study of the impact of neglecting the tropospheric ozone production, loss and dry deposition rates, which are obtained from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. We compare statistical characteristics of the assimilated data and the results of validation against independent observations, obtained from WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres. On the other hand, the main sensitivity to tropospheric chemistry is in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. The best agreement between the assimilated ozone and the in-situ sonde data is in the experiment using both flow-dependent error covariances and tropospheric chemistry.

Skylab water balance error analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leonard, J. I.

1977-01-01

Estimates of the precision of the net water balance were obtained for the entire Skylab preflight and inflight phases as well as for the first two weeks of flight. Quantitative estimates of both total sampling errors and instrumentation errors were obtained. It was shown that measurement error is minimal in comparison to biological variability and little can be gained from improvement in analytical accuracy. In addition, a propagation of error analysis demonstrated that total water balance error could be accounted for almost entirely by the errors associated with body mass changes. Errors due to interaction between terms in the water balance equation (covariances) represented less than 10% of the total error. Overall, the analysis provides evidence that daily measurements of body water changes obtained from the indirect balance technique are reasonable, precise, and relaible. The method is not biased toward net retention or loss.

Impact of Tropospheric Aerosol Absorption on Ozone Retrieval from buv Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres, O.; Bhartia, P. K.

1998-01-01

The impact of tropospheric aerosols on the retrieval of column ozone amounts using spaceborne measurements of backscattered ultraviolet radiation is examined. Using radiative transfer calculations, we show that uv-absorbing desert dust may introduce errors as large as 10% in ozone column amount, depending on the aerosol layer height and optical depth. Smaller errors are produced by carbonaceous aerosols that result from biomass burning. Though the error is produced by complex interactions between ozone absorption (both stratospheric and tropospheric), aerosol scattering, and aerosol absorption, a surprisingly simple correction procedure reduces the error to about 1%, for a variety of aerosols and for a wide range of aerosol loading. Comparison of the corrected TOMS data with operational data indicates that though the zonal mean total ozone derived from TOMS are not significantly affected by these errors, localized affects in the tropics can be large enough to seriously affect the studies of tropospheric ozone that are currently undergoing using the TOMS data.

Experimental and data analysis techniques for deducing collision-induced forces from photographic histories of engine rotor fragment impact/interaction with a containment ring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeghiayan, R. P.; Leech, J. W.; Witmer, E. A.

1973-01-01

An analysis method termed TEJ-JET is described whereby measured transient elastic and inelastic deformations of an engine-rotor fragment-impacted structural ring are analyzed to deduce the transient external forces experienced by that ring as a result of fragment impact and interaction with the ring. Although the theoretical feasibility of the TEJ-JET concept was established, its practical feasibility when utilizing experimental measurements of limited precision and accuracy remains to be established. The experimental equipment and the techniques (high-speed motion photography) employed to measure the transient deformations of fragment-impacted rings are described. Sources of error and data uncertainties are identified. Techniques employed to reduce data reading uncertainties and to correct the data for optical-distortion effects are discussed. These procedures, including spatial smoothing of the deformed ring shape by Fourier series and timewise smoothing by Gram polynomials, are applied illustratively to recent measurements involving the impact of a single T58 turbine rotor blade against an aluminum containment ring. Plausible predictions of the fragment-ring impact/interaction forces are obtained by one branch of this TEJ-JET method; however, a second branch of this method, which provides an independent estimate of these forces, remains to be evaluated.

Assessing error sources for Landsat time series analysis for tropical test sites in Viet Nam and Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Michael; Verbesselt, Jan; Herold, Martin; Avitabile, Valerio

2013-10-01

Researchers who use remotely sensed data can spend half of their total effort analysing prior data. If this data preprocessing does not match the application, this time spent on data analysis can increase considerably and can lead to inaccuracies. Despite the existence of a number of methods for pre-processing Landsat time series, each method has shortcomings, particularly for mapping forest changes under varying illumination, data availability and atmospheric conditions. Based on the requirements of mapping forest changes as defined by the United Nations (UN) Reducing Emissions from Forest Degradation and Deforestation (REDD) program, the accurate reporting of the spatio-temporal properties of these changes is necessary. We compared the impact of three fundamentally different radiometric preprocessing techniques Moderate Resolution Atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN), Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) and simple Dark Object Subtraction (DOS) on mapping forest changes using Landsat time series data. A modification of Breaks For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) monitor was used to jointly map the spatial and temporal agreement of forest changes at test sites in Ethiopia and Viet Nam. The suitability of the pre-processing methods for the occurring forest change drivers was assessed using recently captured Ground Truth and high resolution data (1000 points). A method for creating robust generic forest maps used for the sampling design is presented. An assessment of error sources has been performed identifying haze as a major source for time series analysis commission error.

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elosegui, Pedro

2004-01-01

The few millimeter per year level accuracy of radial global velocity estimates with the Global Positioning System (GPS) is at least an order of magnitude poorer than the accuracy of horizontal global motions. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. GPS error sources relevant to this project can be classified in two broad categories: (1) those related to the analysis of the GPS phase observable, and (2) those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined from the analysis of GPS data important aspect in the first category include the effect on vertical rate estimates due to standard analysis choices, such as orbit modeling, network geometry, ambiguity resolution, as well as errors in models (or simply the lack of models) for clocks, multipath, phase-center variations, atmosphere, and solid-Earth tides. The second category includes the possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference flames for determining vertical velocities in a global scale. The latter has been the subject of our research activities during this reporting period.

Design of experiments-based monitoring of critical quality attributes for the spray-drying process of insulin by NIR spectroscopy.

PubMed

Maltesen, Morten Jonas; van de Weert, Marco; Grohganz, Holger

2012-09-01

Moisture content and aerodynamic particle size are critical quality attributes for spray-dried protein formulations. In this study, spray-dried insulin powders intended for pulmonary delivery were produced applying design of experiments methodology. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) in combination with preprocessing and multivariate analysis in the form of partial least squares projections to latent structures (PLS) were used to correlate the spectral data with moisture content and aerodynamic particle size measured by a time of flight principle. PLS models predicting the moisture content were based on the chemical information of the water molecules in the NIR spectrum. Models yielded prediction errors (RMSEP) between 0.39% and 0.48% with thermal gravimetric analysis used as reference method. The PLS models predicting the aerodynamic particle size were based on baseline offset in the NIR spectra and yielded prediction errors between 0.27 and 0.48 μm. The morphology of the spray-dried particles had a significant impact on the predictive ability of the models. Good predictive models could be obtained for spherical particles with a calibration error (RMSECV) of 0.22 μm, whereas wrinkled particles resulted in much less robust models with a Q (2) of 0.69. Based on the results in this study, NIR is a suitable tool for process analysis of the spray-drying process and for control of moisture content and particle size, in particular for smooth and spherical particles.

Model-based virtual VSB mask writer verification for efficient mask error checking and optimization prior to MDP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pack, Robert C.; Standiford, Keith; Lukanc, Todd; Ning, Guo Xiang; Verma, Piyush; Batarseh, Fadi; Chua, Gek Soon; Fujimura, Akira; Pang, Linyong

2014-10-01

A methodology is described wherein a calibrated model-based `Virtual' Variable Shaped Beam (VSB) mask writer process simulator is used to accurately verify complex Optical Proximity Correction (OPC) and Inverse Lithography Technology (ILT) mask designs prior to Mask Data Preparation (MDP) and mask fabrication. This type of verification addresses physical effects which occur in mask writing that may impact lithographic printing fidelity and variability. The work described here is motivated by requirements for extreme accuracy and control of variations for today's most demanding IC products. These extreme demands necessitate careful and detailed analysis of all potential sources of uncompensated error or variation and extreme control of these at each stage of the integrated OPC/ MDP/ Mask/ silicon lithography flow. The important potential sources of variation we focus on here originate on the basis of VSB mask writer physics and other errors inherent in the mask writing process. The deposited electron beam dose distribution may be examined in a manner similar to optical lithography aerial image analysis and image edge log-slope analysis. This approach enables one to catch, grade, and mitigate problems early and thus reduce the likelihood for costly long-loop iterations between OPC, MDP, and wafer fabrication flows. It moreover describes how to detect regions of a layout or mask where hotspots may occur or where the robustness to intrinsic variations may be improved by modification to the OPC, choice of mask technology, or by judicious design of VSB shots and dose assignment.

Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, N. C.; Errico, Ronald M.

2015-01-01

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

Modeling of mouse eye and errors in ocular parameters affecting refractive state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawa, Gurinder

Rodents eye are particularly used to study refractive error state of an eye and development of refractive eye. Genetic organization of rodents is similar to that of humans, which makes them interesting candidates to be researched upon. From rodents family mice models are encouraged over rats because of availability of genetically engineered models. Despite of extensive work that has been performed on mice and rat models, still no one is able to quantify an optical model, due to variability in the reported ocular parameters. In this Dissertation, we have extracted ocular parameters and generated schematics of eye from the raw data from School of Medicine, Detroit. In order to see how the rays would travel through an eye and the defects associated with an eye; ray tracing has been performed using ocular parameters. Finally we have systematically evaluated the contribution of various ocular parameters, such as radii of curvature of ocular surfaces, thicknesses of ocular components, and refractive indices of ocular refractive media, using variational analysis and a computational model of the rodent eye. Variational analysis revealed that variation in all the ocular parameters does affect the refractive status of the eye, but depending upon the magnitude of the impact those parameters are listed as critical or non critical. Variation in the depth of the vitreous chamber, thickness of the lens, radius of the anterior surface of the cornea, radius of the anterior surface of the lens, as well as refractive indices for the lens and vitreous, appears to have the largest impact on the refractive error and thus are categorized as critical ocular parameters. The radii of the posterior surfaces of the cornea and lens have much smaller contributions to the refractive state, while the radii of the anterior and posterior surfaces of the retina have no effect on the refractive error. These data provide the framework for further refinement of the optical models of the rat and mouse eye and suggest that extra efforts should be directed towards increasing the linear resolution of the rodent eye biometry and obtaining more accurate data for the refractive indices of the lens and vitreous.

Impact of Stewardship Interventions on Antiretroviral Medication Errors in an Urban Medical Center: A 3-Year, Multiphase Study.

PubMed

Zucker, Jason; Mittal, Jaimie; Jen, Shin-Pung; Cheng, Lucy; Cennimo, David

2016-03-01

There is a high prevalence of HIV infection in Newark, New Jersey, with University Hospital admitting approximately 600 HIV-infected patients per year. Medication errors involving antiretroviral therapy (ART) could significantly affect treatment outcomes. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of various stewardship interventions in reducing the prevalence of prescribing errors involving ART. This was a retrospective review of all inpatients receiving ART for HIV treatment during three distinct 6-month intervals over a 3-year period. During the first year, the baseline prevalence of medication errors was determined. During the second year, physician and pharmacist education was provided, and a computerized order entry system with drug information resources and prescribing recommendations was implemented. Prospective audit of ART orders with feedback was conducted in the third year. Analyses and comparisons were made across the three phases of this study. Of the 334 patients with HIV admitted in the first year, 45% had at least one antiretroviral medication error and 38% had uncorrected errors at the time of discharge. After education and computerized order entry, significant reductions in medication error rates were observed compared to baseline rates; 36% of 315 admissions had at least one error and 31% had uncorrected errors at discharge. While the prevalence of antiretroviral errors in year 3 was similar to that of year 2 (37% of 276 admissions), there was a significant decrease in the prevalence of uncorrected errors at discharge (12%) with the use of prospective review and intervention. Interventions, such as education and guideline development, can aid in reducing ART medication errors, but a committed stewardship program is necessary to elicit the greatest impact. © 2016 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Multi-Probe Methodology and Simulated Likelihood Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krause, E.; et al.

We present the methodology for and detail the implementation of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 3x2pt DES Year 1 (Y1) analysis, which combines configuration-space two-point statistics from three different cosmological probes: cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering, using data from the first year of DES observations. We have developed two independent modeling pipelines and describe the code validation process. We derive expressions for analytical real-space multi-probe covariances, and describe their validation with numerical simulations. We stress-test the inference pipelines in simulated likelihood analyses that vary 6-7 cosmology parameters plus 20 nuisance parameters and precisely resemble the analysis to be presented in the DES 3x2pt analysis paper, using a variety of simulated input data vectors with varying assumptions. We find that any disagreement between pipelines leads to changes in assigned likelihoodmore » $$\\Delta \\chi^2 \\le 0.045$$ with respect to the statistical error of the DES Y1 data vector. We also find that angular binning and survey mask do not impact our analytic covariance at a significant level. We determine lower bounds on scales used for analysis of galaxy clustering (8 Mpc$$~h^{-1}$$) and galaxy-galaxy lensing (12 Mpc$$~h^{-1}$$) such that the impact of modeling uncertainties in the non-linear regime is well below statistical errors, and show that our analysis choices are robust against a variety of systematics. These tests demonstrate that we have a robust analysis pipeline that yields unbiased cosmological parameter inferences for the flagship 3x2pt DES Y1 analysis. We emphasize that the level of independent code development and subsequent code comparison as demonstrated in this paper is necessary to produce credible constraints from increasingly complex multi-probe analyses of current data.« less

Human Factors Process Task Analysis: Liquid Oxygen Pump Acceptance Test Procedure at the Advanced Technology Development Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diorio, Kimberly A.; Voska, Ned (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides information on Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (HF PFMEA). HF PFMEA includes the following 10 steps: Describe mission; Define System; Identify human-machine; List human actions; Identify potential errors; Identify factors that effect error; Determine likelihood of error; Determine potential effects of errors; Evaluate risk; Generate solutions (manage error). The presentation also describes how this analysis was applied to a liquid oxygen pump acceptance test.

How Helpful Are Error Management and Counterfactual Thinking Instructions to Inexperienced Spreadsheet Users' Training Task Performance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caputi, Peter; Chan, Amy; Jayasuriya, Rohan

2011-01-01

This paper examined the impact of training strategies on the types of errors that novice users make when learning a commonly used spreadsheet application. Fifty participants were assigned to a counterfactual thinking training (CFT) strategy, an error management training strategy, or a combination of both strategies, and completed an easy task…

The Impact of Bar Code Medication Administration Technology on Reported Medication Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holecek, Andrea

2011-01-01

The use of bar-code medication administration technology is on the rise in acute care facilities in the United States. The technology is purported to decrease medication errors that occur at the point of administration. How significantly this technology affects actual rate and severity of error is unknown. This descriptive, longitudinal research…

The impact of model prediction error in designing geodetic networks for crustal deformation applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. R.

2017-12-01

Earth surface displacements measured at Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sites record crustal deformation due, for example, to slip on faults underground. A primary objective in designing geodetic networks to study crustal deformation is to maximize the ability to recover parameters of interest like fault slip. Given Green's functions (GFs) relating observed displacement to motion on buried dislocations representing a fault, one can use various methods to estimate spatially variable slip. However, assumptions embodied in the GFs, e.g., use of a simplified elastic structure, introduce spatially correlated model prediction errors (MPE) not reflected in measurement uncertainties (Duputel et al., 2014). In theory, selection algorithms should incorporate inter-site correlations to identify measurement locations that give unique information. I assess the impact of MPE on site selection by expanding existing methods (Klein et al., 2017; Reeves and Zhe, 1999) to incorporate this effect. Reeves and Zhe's algorithm sequentially adds or removes a predetermined number of data according to a criterion that minimizes the sum of squared errors (SSE) on parameter estimates. Adapting this method to GNSS network design, Klein et al. select new sites that maximize model resolution, using trade-off curves to determine when additional resolution gain is small. Their analysis uses uncorrelated data errors and GFs for a uniform elastic half space. I compare results using GFs for spatially variable strike slip on a discretized dislocation in a uniform elastic half space, a layered elastic half space, and a layered half space with inclusion of MPE. I define an objective criterion to terminate the algorithm once the next site removal would increase SSE more than the expected incremental SSE increase if all sites had equal impact. Using a grid of candidate sites with 8 km spacing, I find the relative value of the selected sites (defined by the percent increase in SSE that further removal of each site would cause) is more uniform when MPE is included. However, the number and distribution of selected sites depends primarily on site location relative to the fault. For this test case, inclusion of MPE has minimal practical impact; I will investigate whether these findings hold for more densely spaced candidate grids and dipping faults.

Slow Learner Errors Analysis in Solving Fractions Problems in Inclusive Junior High School Class

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novitasari, N.; Lukito, A.; Ekawati, R.

2018-01-01

A slow learner whose IQ is between 71 and 89 will have difficulties in solving mathematics problems that often lead to errors. The errors could be analyzed to where the errors may occur and its type. This research is qualitative descriptive which aims to describe the locations, types, and causes of slow learner errors in the inclusive junior high school class in solving the fraction problem. The subject of this research is one slow learner of seventh-grade student which was selected through direct observation by the researcher and through discussion with mathematics teacher and special tutor which handles the slow learner students. Data collection methods used in this study are written tasks and semistructured interviews. The collected data was analyzed by Newman’s Error Analysis (NEA). Results show that there are four locations of errors, namely comprehension, transformation, process skills, and encoding errors. There are four types of errors, such as concept, principle, algorithm, and counting errors. The results of this error analysis will help teachers to identify the causes of the errors made by the slow learner.

The impact of baryonic matter on gravitational lensing by galaxy clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Brandyn E.; King, Lindsay; Applegate, Douglas; McCarthy, Ian

2017-01-01

Since the bulk of the matter comprising galaxy clusters exists in the form of dark matter, gravitational N-body simulations have historically been an effective way to investigate large scale structure formation and the astrophysics of galaxy clusters. However, upcoming telescopes such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope are expected to have lower systematic errors than older generations, reducing measurement uncertainties and requiring that astrophysicists better quantify the impact of baryonic matter on the cluster lensing signal. Here we outline the effects of baryonic processes on cluster density profiles and on weak lensing mass and concentration estimates. Our analysis is done using clusters grown in the suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations known as cosmo-OWLS.

SU-D-201-01: A Multi-Institutional Study Quantifying the Impact of Simulated Linear Accelerator VMAT Errors for Nasopharynx

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pogson, E; Liverpool and Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, Liverpool, NSW; Ingham Institute for Applied Medical Research, Sydney, NSW

Purpose: To quantify the impact of differing magnitudes of simulated linear accelerator errors on the dose to the target volume and organs at risk for nasopharynx VMAT. Methods: Ten nasopharynx cancer patients were retrospectively replanned twice with one full arc VMAT by two institutions. Treatment uncertainties (gantry angle and collimator in degrees, MLC field size and MLC shifts in mm) were introduced into these plans at increments of 5,2,1,−1,−2 and −5. This was completed using an in-house Python script within Pinnacle3 and analysed using 3DVH and MatLab. The mean and maximum dose were calculated for the Planning Target Volume (PTV1),more » parotids, brainstem, and spinal cord and then compared to the original baseline plan. The D1cc was also calculated for the spinal cord and brainstem. Patient average results were compared across institutions. Results: Introduced gantry angle errors had the smallest effect of dose, no tolerances were exceeded for one institution, and the second institutions VMAT plans were only exceeded for gantry angle of ±5° affecting different sided parotids by 14–18%. PTV1, brainstem and spinal cord tolerances were exceeded for collimator angles of ±5 degrees, MLC shifts and MLC field sizes of ±1 and beyond, at the first institution. At the second institution, sensitivity to errors was marginally higher for some errors including the collimator error producing doses exceeding tolerances above ±2 degrees, and marginally lower with tolerances exceeded above MLC shifts of ±2. The largest differences occur with MLC field sizes, with both institutions reporting exceeded tolerances, for all introduced errors (±1 and beyond). Conclusion: The plan robustness for VMAT nasopharynx plans has been demonstrated. Gantry errors have the least impact on patient doses, however MLC field sizes exceed tolerances even with relatively low introduced errors and also produce the largest errors. This was consistent across both departments. The authors acknowledge funding support from the NSW Cancer Council.« less

Aluminum alloy material structure impact localization by using FBG sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiubin

2014-12-01

The aluminum alloy structure impact localization system by using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors and impact localization algorithm was investigated. A four-FBG sensing network was established. And the power intensity demodulation method was initialized employing the narrow-band tunable laser. The wavelet transform was used to weaken the impact signal noise. And the impact signal time difference was extracted to build the time difference localization algorithm. At last, a fiber Bragg grating impact localization system was established and experimentally verified. The experimental results showed that in the aluminum alloy plate with the 500 mm*500 mm*2 mm test area, the maximum and average impact abscissa localization errors were 11 mm and 6.25 mm, and the maximum and average impact ordinate localization errors were 9 mm and 4.25 mm, respectively. The fiber Bragg grating sensors and demodulation system are feasible to realize the aviation aluminum alloy material structure impact localization. The research results provide a reliable method for the aluminum alloy material structure impact localization.

Impact of number of co-existing rotors and inter-electrode distance on accuracy of rotor localization☆,☆☆

PubMed Central

Aronis, Konstantinos N.; Ashikaga, Hiroshi

2018-01-01

Background Conflicting evidence exists on the efficacy of focal impulse and rotor modulation on atrial fibrillation ablation. A potential explanation is inaccurate rotor localization from multiple rotors coexistence and a relatively large (9–11 mm) inter-electrode distance (IED) of the multi-electrode basket catheter. Methods and results We studied a numerical model of cardiac action potential to reproduce one through seven rotors in a two-dimensional lattice. We estimated rotor location using phase singularity, Shannon entropy and dominant frequency. We then spatially downsampled the time series to create IEDs of 2–30 mm. The error of rotor localization was measured with reference to the dynamics of phase singularity at the original spatial resolution (IED = 1 mm). IED has a significant impact on the error using all the methods. When only one rotor is present, the error increases exponentially as a function of IED. At the clinical IED of 10 mm, the error is 3.8 mm (phase singularity), 3.7 mm (dominant frequency), and 11.8 mm (Shannon entropy). When there are more than one rotors, the error of rotor localization increases 10-fold. The error based on the phase singularity method at the clinical IED of 10 mm ranges from 30.0 mm (two rotors) to 96.1 mm (five rotors). Conclusions The magnitude of error of rotor localization using a clinically available basket catheter, in the presence of multiple rotors might be high enough to impact the accuracy of targeting during AF ablation. Improvement of catheter design and development of high-density mapping catheters may improve clinical outcomes of FIRM-guided AF ablation. PMID:28988690

Impact of number of co-existing rotors and inter-electrode distance on accuracy of rotor localization.

PubMed

Aronis, Konstantinos N; Ashikaga, Hiroshi

Conflicting evidence exists on the efficacy of focal impulse and rotor modulation on atrial fibrillation ablation. A potential explanation is inaccurate rotor localization from multiple rotors coexistence and a relatively large (9-11mm) inter-electrode distance (IED) of the multi-electrode basket catheter. We studied a numerical model of cardiac action potential to reproduce one through seven rotors in a two-dimensional lattice. We estimated rotor location using phase singularity, Shannon entropy and dominant frequency. We then spatially downsampled the time series to create IEDs of 2-30mm. The error of rotor localization was measured with reference to the dynamics of phase singularity at the original spatial resolution (IED=1mm). IED has a significant impact on the error using all the methods. When only one rotor is present, the error increases exponentially as a function of IED. At the clinical IED of 10mm, the error is 3.8mm (phase singularity), 3.7mm (dominant frequency), and 11.8mm (Shannon entropy). When there are more than one rotors, the error of rotor localization increases 10-fold. The error based on the phase singularity method at the clinical IED of 10mm ranges from 30.0mm (two rotors) to 96.1mm (five rotors). The magnitude of error of rotor localization using a clinically available basket catheter, in the presence of multiple rotors might be high enough to impact the accuracy of targeting during AF ablation. Improvement of catheter design and development of high-density mapping catheters may improve clinical outcomes of FIRM-guided AF ablation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New dimension analyses with error analysis for quaking aspen and black spruce

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, K. D.; Botkin, D. B.; Feiveson, A. H.

1987-01-01

Dimension analysis for black spruce in wetland stands and trembling aspen are reported, including new approaches in error analysis. Biomass estimates for sacrificed trees have standard errors of 1 to 3%; standard errors for leaf areas are 10 to 20%. Bole biomass estimation accounts for most of the error for biomass, while estimation of branch characteristics and area/weight ratios accounts for the leaf area error. Error analysis provides insight for cost effective design of future analyses. Predictive equations for biomass and leaf area, with empirically derived estimators of prediction error, are given. Systematic prediction errors for small aspen trees and for leaf area of spruce from different site-types suggest a need for different predictive models within species. Predictive equations are compared with published equations; significant differences may be due to species responses to regional or site differences. Proportional contributions of component biomass in aspen change in ways related to tree size and stand development. Spruce maintains comparatively constant proportions with size, but shows changes corresponding to site. This suggests greater morphological plasticity of aspen and significance for spruce of nutrient conditions.

A quality assessment of 3D video analysis for full scale rockfall experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volkwein, A.; Glover, J.; Bourrier, F.; Gerber, W.

2012-04-01

Main goal of full scale rockfall experiments is to retrieve a 3D trajectory of a boulder along the slope. Such trajectories then can be used to calibrate rockfall simulation models. This contribution presents the application of video analysis techniques capturing rock fall velocity of some free fall full scale rockfall experiments along a rock face with an inclination of about 50 degrees. Different scaling methodologies have been evaluated. They mainly differ in the way the scaling factors between the movie frames and the reality and are determined. For this purpose some scale bars and targets with known dimensions have been distributed in advance along the slope. The single scaling approaches are briefly described as follows: (i) Image raster is scaled to the distant fixed scale bar then recalibrated to the plane of the passing rock boulder by taking the measured position of the nearest impact as the distance to the camera. The distance between the camera, scale bar, and passing boulder are surveyed. (ii) The image raster was scaled using the four nearest targets (identified using frontal video) from the trajectory to be analyzed. The average of the scaling factors was finally taken as scaling factor. (iii) The image raster was scaled using the four nearest targets from the trajectory to be analyzed. The scaling factor for one trajectory was calculated by balancing the mean scaling factors associated with the two nearest and the two farthest targets in relation to their mean distance to the analyzed trajectory. (iv) Same as previous method but with varying scaling factors during along the trajectory. It has shown that a direct measure of the scaling target and nearest impact zone is the most accurate. If constant plane is assumed it doesn't account for the lateral deviations of the rock boulder from the fall line consequently adding error into the analysis. Thus a combination of scaling methods (i) and (iv) are considered to give the best results. For best results regarding the lateral rough positioning along the slope, the frontal video must also be scaled. The error in scaling the video images can be evaluated by comparing the data by additional combination of the vertical trajectory component over time with the theoretical polynomial trend according to gravity. The different tracking techniques used to plot the position of the boulder's center of gravity all generated positional data with minimal error acceptable for trajectory analysis. However, when calculating instantaneous velocities an amplification of this error becomes un acceptable. A regression analysis of the data is helpful to optimize trajectory and velocity, respectively.

Economics of human performance and systems total ownership cost.

PubMed

Onkham, Wilawan; Karwowski, Waldemar; Ahram, Tareq Z

2012-01-01

Financial costs of investing in people is associated with training, acquisition, recruiting, and resolving human errors have a significant impact on increased total ownership costs. These costs can also affect the exaggerate budgets and delayed schedules. The study of human performance economical assessment in the system acquisition process enhances the visibility of hidden cost drivers which support program management informed decisions. This paper presents the literature review of human total ownership cost (HTOC) and cost impacts on overall system performance. Economic value assessment models such as cost benefit analysis, risk-cost tradeoff analysis, expected value of utility function analysis (EV), growth readiness matrix, multi-attribute utility technique, and multi-regressions model were introduced to reflect the HTOC and human performance-technology tradeoffs in terms of the dollar value. The human total ownership regression model introduces to address the influencing human performance cost component measurement. Results from this study will increase understanding of relevant cost drivers in the system acquisition process over the long term.

Adaptive UEP and Packet Size Assignment for Scalable Video Transmission over Burst-Error Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chen-Wei; Yang, Chu-Sing; Su, Yih-Ching

2006-12-01

This work proposes an adaptive unequal error protection (UEP) and packet size assignment scheme for scalable video transmission over a burst-error channel. An analytic model is developed to evaluate the impact of channel bit error rate on the quality of streaming scalable video. A video transmission scheme, which combines the adaptive assignment of packet size with unequal error protection to increase the end-to-end video quality, is proposed. Several distinct scalable video transmission schemes over burst-error channel have been compared, and the simulation results reveal that the proposed transmission schemes can react to varying channel conditions with less and smoother quality degradation.

Measuring the relationship between interruptions, multitasking and prescribing errors in an emergency department: a study protocol.

PubMed

Raban, Magdalena Z; Walter, Scott R; Douglas, Heather E; Strumpman, Dana; Mackenzie, John; Westbrook, Johanna I

2015-10-13

Interruptions and multitasking are frequent in clinical settings, and have been shown in the cognitive psychology literature to affect performance, increasing the risk of error. However, comparatively less is known about their impact on errors in clinical work. This study will assess the relationship between prescribing errors, interruptions and multitasking in an emergency department (ED) using direct observations and chart review. The study will be conducted in an ED of a 440-bed teaching hospital in Sydney, Australia. Doctors will be shadowed at proximity by observers for 2 h time intervals while they are working on day shift (between 0800 and 1800). Time stamped data on tasks, interruptions and multitasking will be recorded on a handheld computer using the validated Work Observation Method by Activity Timing (WOMBAT) tool. The prompts leading to interruptions and multitasking will also be recorded. When doctors prescribe medication, type of chart and chart sections written on, along with the patient's medical record number (MRN) will be recorded. A clinical pharmacist will access patient records and assess the medication orders for prescribing errors. The prescribing error rate will be calculated per prescribing task and is defined as the number of errors divided by the number of medication orders written during the prescribing task. The association between prescribing error rates, and rates of prompts, interruptions and multitasking will be assessed using statistical modelling. Ethics approval has been obtained from the hospital research ethics committee. Eligible doctors will be provided with written information sheets and written consent will be obtained if they agree to participate. Doctor details and MRNs will be kept separate from the data on prescribing errors, and will not appear in the final data set for analysis. Study results will be disseminated in publications and feedback to the ED. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Self-reported and observed punitive parenting prospectively predicts increased error-related brain activity in six-year-old children

PubMed Central

Meyer, Alexandria; Proudfit, Greg Hajcak; Bufferd, Sara J.; Kujawa, Autumn J.; Laptook, Rebecca S.; Torpey, Dana C.; Klein, Daniel N.

2017-01-01

The error-related negativity (ERN) is a negative deflection in the event-related potential (ERP) occurring approximately 50 ms after error commission at fronto-central electrode sites and is thought to reflect the activation of a generic error monitoring system. Several studies have reported an increased ERN in clinically anxious children, and suggest that anxious children are more sensitive to error commission—although the mechanisms underlying this association are not clear. We have previously found that punishing errors results in a larger ERN, an effect that persists after punishment ends. It is possible that learning-related experiences that impact sensitivity to errors may lead to an increased ERN. In particular, punitive parenting might sensitize children to errors and increase their ERN. We tested this possibility in the current study by prospectively examining the relationship between parenting style during early childhood and children’s ERN approximately three years later. Initially, 295 parents and children (approximately 3 years old) participated in a structured observational measure of parenting behavior, and parents completed a self-report measure of parenting style. At a follow-up assessment approximately three years later, the ERN was elicited during a Go/No-Go task, and diagnostic interviews were completed with parents to assess child psychopathology. Results suggested that both observational measures of hostile parenting and self-report measures of authoritarian parenting style uniquely predicted a larger ERN in children 3 years later. We previously reported that children in this sample with anxiety disorders were characterized by an increased ERN. A mediation analysis indicated that ERN magnitude mediated the relationship between harsh parenting and child anxiety disorder. Results suggest that parenting may shape children’s error processing through environmental conditioning and thereby risk for anxiety, although future work is needed to confirm this hypothesis. PMID:25092483

WE-H-BRC-05: Catastrophic Error Metrics for Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, S; Molloy, J

Purpose: Intuitive evaluation of complex radiotherapy treatments is impractical, while data transfer anomalies create the potential for catastrophic treatment delivery errors. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, logical scrutiny can be applied to patient-specific machine settings. Such tests can be automated, applied at the point of treatment delivery and can be dissociated from prior states of the treatment plan, potentially revealing errors introduced early in the process. Methods: Analytical metrics were formulated for conventional and intensity modulated RT (IMRT) treatments. These were designed to assess consistency between monitor unit settings, wedge values, prescription dose and leaf positioning (IMRT). Institutional metric averages formore » 218 clinical plans were stratified over multiple anatomical sites. Treatment delivery errors were simulated using a commercial treatment planning system and metric behavior assessed via receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) analysis. A positive result was returned if the erred plan metric value exceeded a given number of standard deviations, e.g. 2. The finding was declared true positive if the dosimetric impact exceeded 25%. ROC curves were generated over a range of metric standard deviations. Results: Data for the conventional treatment metric indicated standard deviations of 3%, 12%, 11%, 8%, and 5 % for brain, pelvis, abdomen, lung and breast sites, respectively. Optimum error declaration thresholds yielded true positive rates (TPR) between 0.7 and 1, and false positive rates (FPR) between 0 and 0.2. Two proposed IMRT metrics possessed standard deviations of 23% and 37%. The superior metric returned TPR and FPR of 0.7 and 0.2, respectively, when both leaf position and MUs were modelled. Isolation to only leaf position errors yielded TPR and FPR values of 0.9 and 0.1. Conclusion: Logical tests can reveal treatment delivery errors and prevent large, catastrophic errors. Analytical metrics are able to identify errors in monitor units, wedging and leaf positions with favorable sensitivity and specificity. In part by Varian.« less

The impact of lidar elevation uncertainty on mapping intertidal habitats on barrier islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Enwright, Nicholas M.; Wang, Lei; Borchert, Sinéad M.; Day, Richard H.; Feher, Laura C.; Osland, Michael J.

2018-01-01

While airborne lidar data have revolutionized the spatial resolution that elevations can be realized, data limitations are often magnified in coastal settings. Researchers have found that airborne lidar can have a vertical error as high as 60 cm in densely vegetated intertidal areas. The uncertainty of digital elevation models is often left unaddressed; however, in low-relief environments, such as barrier islands, centimeter differences in elevation can affect exposure to physically demanding abiotic conditions, which greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. In this study, we used airborne lidar elevation data, in situ elevation observations, lidar metadata, and tide gauge information to delineate low-lying lands and the intertidal wetlands on Dauphin Island, a barrier island along the coast of Alabama, USA. We compared three different elevation error treatments, which included leaving error untreated and treatments that used Monte Carlo simulations to incorporate elevation vertical uncertainty using general information from lidar metadata and site-specific Real-Time Kinematic Global Position System data, respectively. To aid researchers in instances where limited information is available for error propagation, we conducted a sensitivity test to assess the effect of minor changes to error and bias. Treatment of error with site-specific observations produced the fewest omission errors, although the treatment using the lidar metadata had the most well-balanced results. The percent coverage of intertidal wetlands was increased by up to 80% when treating the vertical error of the digital elevation models. Based on the results from the sensitivity analysis, it could be reasonable to use error and positive bias values from literature for similar environments, conditions, and lidar acquisition characteristics in the event that collection of site-specific data is not feasible and information in the lidar metadata is insufficient. The methodology presented in this study should increase efficiency and enhance results for habitat mapping and analyses in dynamic, low-relief coastal environments.

Systematic errors in temperature estimates from MODIS data covering the western Palearctic and their impact on a parasite development model.

PubMed

Alonso-Carné, Jorge; García-Martín, Alberto; Estrada-Peña, Agustin

2013-11-01

The modelling of habitat suitability for parasites is a growing area of research due to its association with climate change and ensuing shifts in the distribution of infectious diseases. Such models depend on remote sensing data and require accurate, high-resolution temperature measurements. The temperature is critical for accurate estimation of development rates and potential habitat ranges for a given parasite. The MODIS sensors aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution temperature data for remote sensing applications. This paper describes comparative analysis of MODIS-derived temperatures relative to ground records of surface temperature in the western Palaearctic. The results show that MODIS overestimated maximum temperature values and underestimated minimum temperatures by up to 5-6 °C. The combined use of both Aqua and Terra datasets provided the most accurate temperature estimates around latitude 35-44° N, with an overestimation during spring-summer months and an underestimation in autumn-winter. Errors in temperature estimation were associated with specific ecological regions within the target area as well as technical limitations in the temporal and orbital coverage of the satellites (e.g. sensor limitations and satellite transit times). We estimated error propagation of temperature uncertainties in parasite habitat suitability models by comparing outcomes of published models. Error estimates reached 36% of annual respective measurements depending on the model used. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of adequate image processing and points out the limitations of MODIS temperature data as inputs into predictive models concerning parasite lifecycles.

The impact of computerized physician order entry on prescription orders: A quasi-experimental study in Iran

PubMed Central

Khammarnia, Mohammad; Sharifian, Roxana; Zand, Farid; Barati, Omid; Keshtkaran, Ali; Sabetian, Golnar; Shahrokh, , Nasim; Setoodezadeh, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Background: One way to reduce medical errors associated with physician orders is computerized physician order entry (CPOE) software. This study was conducted to compare prescription orders between 2 groups before and after CPOE implementation in a hospital. Methods: We conducted a before-after prospective study in 2 intensive care unit (ICU) wards (as intervention and control wards) in the largest tertiary public hospital in South of Iran during 2014 and 2016. All prescription orders were validated by a clinical pharmacist and an ICU physician. The rates of ordering the errors in medical orders were compared before (manual ordering) and after implementation of the CPOE. A standard checklist was used for data collection. For the data analysis, SPSS Version 21, descriptive statistics, and analytical tests such as McNemar, chi-square, and logistic regression were used. Results: The CPOE significantly decreased 2 types of errors, illegible orders and lack of writing the drug form, in the intervention ward compared to the control ward (p< 0.05); however, the 2 errors increased due to the defect in the CPOE (p< 0.001). The use of CPOE decreased the prescription errors from 19% to 3% (p= 0.001), However, no differences were observed in the control ward (p<0.05). In addition, more errors occurred in the morning shift (p< 0.001). Conclusion: In general, the use of CPOE significantly reduced the prescription errors. Nonetheless, more caution should be exercised in the use of this system, and its deficiencies should be resolved. Furthermore, it is recommended that CPOE be used to improve the quality of delivered services in hospitals. PMID:29445698

The impact of computerized physician order entry on prescription orders: A quasi-experimental study in Iran.

PubMed

Khammarnia, Mohammad; Sharifian, Roxana; Zand, Farid; Barati, Omid; Keshtkaran, Ali; Sabetian, Golnar; Shahrokh, Nasim; Setoodezadeh, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Background: One way to reduce medical errors associated with physician orders is computerized physician order entry (CPOE) software. This study was conducted to compare prescription orders between 2 groups before and after CPOE implementation in a hospital. Methods: We conducted a before-after prospective study in 2 intensive care unit (ICU) wards (as intervention and control wards) in the largest tertiary public hospital in South of Iran during 2014 and 2016. All prescription orders were validated by a clinical pharmacist and an ICU physician. The rates of ordering the errors in medical orders were compared before (manual ordering) and after implementation of the CPOE. A standard checklist was used for data collection. For the data analysis, SPSS Version 21, descriptive statistics, and analytical tests such as McNemar, chi-square, and logistic regression were used. Results: The CPOE significantly decreased 2 types of errors, illegible orders and lack of writing the drug form, in the intervention ward compared to the control ward (p< 0.05); however, the 2 errors increased due to the defect in the CPOE (p< 0.001). The use of CPOE decreased the prescription errors from 19% to 3% (p= 0.001), However, no differences were observed in the control ward (p<0.05). In addition, more errors occurred in the morning shift (p< 0.001). Conclusion: In general, the use of CPOE significantly reduced the prescription errors. Nonetheless, more caution should be exercised in the use of this system, and its deficiencies should be resolved. Furthermore, it is recommended that CPOE be used to improve the quality of delivered services in hospitals.

Improving the quality of self-monitoring blood glucose measurement: a study in reducing calibration errors.

PubMed

Baum, John M; Monhaut, Nanette M; Parker, Donald R; Price, Christopher P

2006-06-01

Two independent studies reported that 16% of people who self-monitor blood glucose used incorrectly coded meters. The degree of analytical error, however, was not characterized. Our study objectives were to demonstrate that miscoding can cause analytical errors and to characterize the potential amount of bias that can occur. The impact of calibration error with three selfblood glucose monitoring systems (BGMSs), one of which has an autocoding feature, is reported. Fresh capillary fingerstick blood from 50 subjects, 18 men and 32 women ranging in age from 23 to 82 years, was used to measure glucose with three BGMSs. Two BGMSs required manual coding and were purposely miscoded using numbers different from the one recommended for the reagent lot used. Two properly coded meters of each BGMS were included to assess within-system variability. Different reagent lots were used to challenge a third system that had autocoding capability and could not be miscoded. Some within-system comparisons showed deviations of greater than +/-30% when results obtained with miscoded meters were compared with data obtained with ones programmed using the correct code number. Similar erroneous results were found when the miscoded meter results were compared with those obtained with a glucose analyzer. For some miscoded meter and test strip combinations, error grid analysis showed that 90% of results fell into zones indicating altered clinical action. Such inaccuracies were not found with the BGMS having the autocoding feature. When certain meter code number settings of two BGMSs were used in conjunction with test strips having code numbers that did not match, statistically and clinically inaccurate results were obtained. Coding errors resulted in analytical errors of greater than +/-30% (-31.6 to +60.9%). These results confirm the value of a BGMS with an automatic coding feature.

Sensitivity of surface meteorological analyses to observation networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyndall, Daniel Paul

A computationally efficient variational analysis system for two-dimensional meteorological fields is developed and described. This analysis approach is most efficient when the number of analysis grid points is much larger than the number of available observations, such as for large domain mesoscale analyses. The analysis system is developed using MATLAB software and can take advantage of multiple processors or processor cores. A version of the analysis system has been exported as a platform independent application (i.e., can be run on Windows, Linux, or Macintosh OS X desktop computers without a MATLAB license) with input/output operations handled by commonly available internet software combined with data archives at the University of Utah. The impact of observation networks on the meteorological analyses is assessed by utilizing a percentile ranking of individual observation sensitivity and impact, which is computed by using the adjoint of the variational surface assimilation system. This methodology is demonstrated using a case study of the analysis from 1400 UTC 27 October 2010 over the entire contiguous United States domain. The sensitivity of this approach to the dependence of the background error covariance on observation density is examined. Observation sensitivity and impact provide insight on the influence of observations from heterogeneous observing networks as well as serve as objective metrics for quality control procedures that may help to identify stations with significant siting, reporting, or representativeness issues.

Electron impact contribution to infrared NO emissions in auroral conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, L.; Brunger, M. J.

2007-11-01

Infrared emissions from nitric oxide, other than nightglow, are observed in aurora, principally due to a chemiluminescent reaction between excited nitrogen atoms and oxygen molecules that produces vibrationally excited NO. The rates for this chemiluminescent reaction have recently been revised. Based on new measurements of electron impact vibrational excitation of NO, it has been suggested that electron impact may also be significant in producing auroral NO emissions. We show results of a detailed calculation which predicts the infrared spectrum observed in rocket measurements, using the revised chemiluminescent rates and including electron impact excitation. For emissions from the second vibrational level and above, the shape of the spectrum can be reproduced within the statistical errors of the analysis of the measurements, although there is an unexplained discrepancy in the absolute value of the emissions. The inclusion of electron impact improves the agreement of the shape of the predicted spectrum with the measurements by accounting for part of the previously unexplained peak in emissions from the first vibrational level.

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

2014-01-01

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

Study of chromatic adaptation using memory color matches, Part II: colored illuminants.

PubMed

Smet, Kevin A G; Zhai, Qiyan; Luo, Ming R; Hanselaer, Peter

2017-04-03

In a previous paper, 12 corresponding color data sets were derived for 4 neutral illuminants using the long-term memory colours of five familiar objects. The data were used to test several linear (one-step and two-step von Kries, RLAB) and nonlinear (Hunt and Nayatani) chromatic adaptation transforms (CAT). This paper extends that study to a total of 156 corresponding color sets by including 9 more colored illuminants: 2 with low and 2 with high correlated color temperatures as well as 5 representing high chroma adaptive conditions. As in the previous study, a two-step von Kries transform whereby the degree of adaptation D is optimized to minimize the DEu'v' prediction errors outperformed all other tested models for both memory color and literature corresponding color sets, whereby prediction errors were lower for the memory color set. Most of the transforms tested, except the two- and one-step von Kries models with optimized D, showed large errors for corresponding color subsets that contained non-neutral adaptive conditions as all of them tended to overestimate the effective degree of adaptation in this study. An analysis of the impact of the sensor space primaries in which the adaptation is performed was found to have little impact compared to that of model choice. Finally, the effective degree of adaptation for the 13 illumination conditions (4 neutral + 9 colored) was successfully modelled using a bivariate Gaussian in a Macleod-Boyton like chromaticity diagram.

A classification on human factor accident/incident of China civil aviation in recent twelve years.

PubMed

Luo, Xiao-li

2004-10-01

To study human factor accident/incident occurred during 1990-2001 using new classification standard. The human factor accident/incident classification standard is developed on the basis of Reason's Model, combining with CAAC's traditional classifying method, and applied to the classified statistical analysis for 361 flying incidents and 35 flight accidents of China civil aviation, which is induced by human factors and occurred from 1990 to 2001. 1) the incident percentage of taxi and cruise is higher than that of takeoff, climb and descent. 2) The dominating type of flight incidents is diverging of runway, overrunning, near-miss, tail/wingtip/engine strike and ground obstacle impacting. 3) The top three accidents are out of control caused by crew, mountain collision and over runway. 4) Crew's basic operating skill is lower than what we imagined, the mostly representation is poor correcting ability when flight error happened. 5) Crew errors can be represented by incorrect control, regulation and procedure violation, disorientation and diverging percentage of correct flight level. The poor CRM skill is the dominant factor impacting China civil aviation safety, this result has a coincidence with previous study, but there is much difference and distinct characteristic in top incident phase, the type of crew error and behavior performance compared with that of advanced countries. We should strengthen CRM training for all of pilots aiming at the Chinese pilot behavior characteristic in order to improve the safety level of China civil aviation.

The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

2016-04-01

The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and radiation data) and ground-based eye observations of clouds and radiation measurements from weather stations. Our results show that many of the climate models have great difficulties representing the diurnal cycle of winds and clouds, leading to associated errors in radiation. Typical errors include a substantial underestimation of the lowest clouds accompanied by an overestimation of clouds at the top of the monsoon layer, indicating systematic problems in vertical exchange processes, which are also reflected in large errors in jet speed. Consequently, many models show a too flat diurnal cycle in cloudiness. This contribution is part of the EU-funded DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project that aims to investigate the impact of the drastic increase in anthropogenic emissions in West Africa on the local weather and climate, for example through cloud-aerosol interactions. The analysis of the capability of state-of-the-art numerical models to represent low-level cloudiness presented here is an important requisite for the planned assessments of the influence of anthropogenic aerosol.

Assessing the economic impacts of drought from the perspective of profit loss rate: a case study of the sugar industry in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Lin, L.; Chen, H.

2015-02-01

Natural disasters have enormous impacts on human society, especially on the development of the economy. To support decision making in mitigation and adaption to natural disasters, assessment of economic impacts is fundamental and of great significance. Based on a review of the literature of economic impact evaluation, this paper proposes a new assessment model of economic impact from drought by using the sugar industry in China as a case study, which focuses on the generation and transfer of economic impacts along a simple value chain involving only sugarcane growers and a sugar producing company. A perspective of profit loss rate is applied to scale economic impact with a model based on cost-and-benefit analysis. By using analysis of "with-and-without", profit loss is defined as the difference in profits between disaster-hit and disaster-free scenarios. To calculate profit, analysis on a time series of sugar price is applied. With the support of a linear regression model, an endogenous trend in sugar price is identified, and the time series of sugar price "without" disaster is obtained using an autoregressive error model to separate impact by disasters from the internal trend in sugar price. Unlike the settings in other assessment models, representative sugar prices, which represent value level in disaster-free condition and disaster-hit condition, are integrated from a long time series that covers the whole period of drought. As a result, it is found that in a rigid farming contract, sugarcane growers suffer far more than the sugar company when impacted by severe drought, which may promote the reflections on economic equality among various economic bodies at the occurrence of natural disasters.

Influence of Tooth Spacing Error on Gears With and Without Profile Modifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padmasolala, Giri; Lin, Hsiang H.; Oswald, Fred B.

2000-01-01

A computer simulation was conducted to investigate the effectiveness of profile modification for reducing dynamic loads in gears with different tooth spacing errors. The simulation examined varying amplitudes of spacing error and differences in the span of teeth over which the error occurs. The modification considered included both linear and parabolic tip relief. The analysis considered spacing error that varies around most of the gear circumference (similar to a typical sinusoidal error pattern) as well as a shorter span of spacing errors that occurs on only a few teeth. The dynamic analysis was performed using a revised version of a NASA gear dynamics code, modified to add tooth spacing errors to the analysis. Results obtained from the investigation show that linear tip relief is more effective in reducing dynamic loads on gears with small spacing errors but parabolic tip relief becomes more effective as the amplitude of spacing error increases. In addition, the parabolic modification is more effective for the more severe error case where the error is spread over a longer span of teeth. The findings of this study can be used to design robust tooth profile modification for improving dynamic performance of gear sets with different tooth spacing errors.

Software Requirements Analysis as Fault Predictor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Dolores

2003-01-01

Waiting until the integration and system test phase to discover errors leads to more costly rework than resolving those same errors earlier in the lifecycle. Costs increase even more significantly once a software system has become operational. WE can assess the quality of system requirements, but do little to correlate this information either to system assurance activities or long-term reliability projections - both of which remain unclear and anecdotal. Extending earlier work on requirements accomplished by the ARM tool, measuring requirements quality information against code complexity and test data for the same system may be used to predict specific software modules containing high impact or deeply embedded faults now escaping in operational systems. Such knowledge would lead to more effective and efficient test programs. It may enable insight into whether a program should be maintained or started over.

Software reliability experiments data analysis and investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, J. Leslie; Caglayan, Alper K.

1991-01-01

The objectives are to investigate the fundamental reasons which cause independently developed software programs to fail dependently, and to examine fault tolerant software structures which maximize reliability gain in the presence of such dependent failure behavior. The authors used 20 redundant programs from a software reliability experiment to analyze the software errors causing coincident failures, to compare the reliability of N-version and recovery block structures composed of these programs, and to examine the impact of diversity on software reliability using subpopulations of these programs. The results indicate that both conceptually related and unrelated errors can cause coincident failures and that recovery block structures offer more reliability gain than N-version structures if acceptance checks that fail independently from the software components are available. The authors present a theory of general program checkers that have potential application for acceptance tests.

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elosegui, Pedro

2005-01-01

The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a large number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. A set of GPS error sources relevant to this project are those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined &om the analysis of GPS data, including possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference frames. This is were our research activities during this reporting period have concentrated. During this reporting period, we have researched two topics: (1) The effect of errors on the GPS satellite antenna models (or lack thereof) on global GPS vertical position and velocity estimates; (2) The effect of reference W e definition and practice on estimates of the geocenter variations.

Branch-Based Model for the Diameters of the Pulmonary Airways: Accounting for Departures From Self-Consistency and Registration Errors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neradilek, Moni B.; Polissar, Nayak L.; Einstein, Daniel R.

2012-04-24

We examine a previously published branch-based approach to modeling airway diameters that is predicated on the assumption of self-consistency across all levels of the tree. We mathematically formulate this assumption, propose a method to test it and develop a more general model to be used when the assumption is violated. We discuss the effect of measurement error on the estimated models and propose methods that account for it. The methods are illustrated on data from MRI and CT images of silicone casts of two rats, two normal monkeys and one ozone-exposed monkey. Our results showed substantial departures from self-consistency inmore » all five subjects. When departures from selfconsistency exist we do not recommend using the self-consistency model, even as an approximation, as we have shown that it may likely lead to an incorrect representation of the diameter geometry. Measurement error has an important impact on the estimated morphometry models and needs to be accounted for in the analysis.« less

Item Discrimination and Type I Error in the Detection of Differential Item Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Yanju; Brooks, Gordon P.; Johanson, George A.

2012-01-01

In 2009, DeMars stated that when impact exists there will be Type I error inflation, especially with larger sample sizes and larger discrimination parameters for items. One purpose of this study is to present the patterns of Type I error rates using Mantel-Haenszel (MH) and logistic regression (LR) procedures when the mean ability between the…

Quasi-eccentricity error modeling and compensation in vision metrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yijun; Zhang, Xu; Cheng, Wei; Zhu, Limin

2018-04-01

Circular targets are commonly used in vision applications for its detection accuracy and robustness. The eccentricity error of the circular target caused by perspective projection is one of the main factors of measurement error which needs to be compensated in high-accuracy measurement. In this study, the impact of the lens distortion on the eccentricity error is comprehensively investigated. The traditional eccentricity error turns to a quasi-eccentricity error in the non-linear camera model. The quasi-eccentricity error model is established by comparing the quasi-center of the distorted ellipse with the true projection of the object circle center. Then, an eccentricity error compensation framework is proposed which compensates the error by iteratively refining the image point to the true projection of the circle center. Both simulation and real experiment confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in several vision applications.

Height bias and scale effect induced by antenna gravitational deformations in geodetic VLBI data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarti, Pierguido; Abbondanza, Claudio; Petrov, Leonid; Negusini, Monia

2011-01-01

The impact of signal path variations (SPVs) caused by antenna gravitational deformations on geodetic very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) results is evaluated for the first time. Elevation-dependent models of SPV for Medicina and Noto (Italy) telescopes were derived from a combination of terrestrial surveying methods to account for gravitational deformations. After applying these models in geodetic VLBI data analysis, estimates of the antenna reference point positions are shifted upward by 8.9 and 6.7 mm, respectively. The impact on other parameters is negligible. To simulate the impact of antenna gravitational deformations on the entire VLBI network, lacking measurements for other telescopes, we rescaled the SPV models of Medicina and Noto for other antennas according to their size. The effects of the simulations are changes in VLBI heights in the range [-3, 73] mm and a net scale increase of 0.3-0.8 ppb. The height bias is larger than random errors of VLBI position estimates, implying the possibility of significant scale distortions related to antenna gravitational deformations. This demonstrates the need to precisely measure gravitational deformations of other VLBI telescopes, to derive their precise SPV models and to apply them in routine geodetic data analysis.

The impact of different background errors in the assimilation of satellite radiances and in-situ observational data using WRFDA for three rainfall events over Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakeri, Zeinab; Azadi, Majid; Ghader, Sarmad

2018-01-01

Satellite radiances and in-situ observations are assimilated through Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system into Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model over Iran and its neighboring area. Domain specific background error based on x and y components of wind speed (UV) control variables is calculated for WRFDA system and some sensitivity experiments are carried out to compare the impact of global background error and the domain specific background errors, both on the precipitation and 2-m temperature forecasts over Iran. Three precipitation events that occurred over the country during January, September and October 2014 are simulated in three different experiments and the results for precipitation and 2-m temperature are verified against the verifying surface observations. Results show that using domain specific background error improves 2-m temperature and 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts consistently, while global background error may even degrade the forecasts compared to the experiments without data assimilation. The improvement in 2-m temperature is more evident during the first forecast hours and decreases significantly as the forecast length increases.