Causal inference with measurement error in outcomes: Bias analysis and estimation methods.

PubMed

Shu, Di; Yi, Grace Y

2017-01-01

Inverse probability weighting estimation has been popularly used to consistently estimate the average treatment effect. Its validity, however, is challenged by the presence of error-prone variables. In this paper, we explore the inverse probability weighting estimation with mismeasured outcome variables. We study the impact of measurement error for both continuous and discrete outcome variables and reveal interesting consequences of the naive analysis which ignores measurement error. When a continuous outcome variable is mismeasured under an additive measurement error model, the naive analysis may still yield a consistent estimator; when the outcome is binary, we derive the asymptotic bias in a closed-form. Furthermore, we develop consistent estimation procedures for practical scenarios where either validation data or replicates are available. With validation data, we propose an efficient method for estimation of average treatment effect; the efficiency gain is substantial relative to usual methods of using validation data. To provide protection against model misspecification, we further propose a doubly robust estimator which is consistent even when either the treatment model or the outcome model is misspecified. Simulation studies are reported to assess the performance of the proposed methods. An application to a smoking cessation dataset is presented.

Measurement error in earnings data: Using a mixture model approach to combine survey and register data.

PubMed

Meijer, Erik; Rohwedder, Susann; Wansbeek, Tom

2012-01-01

Survey data on earnings tend to contain measurement error. Administrative data are superior in principle, but they are worthless in case of a mismatch. We develop methods for prediction in mixture factor analysis models that combine both data sources to arrive at a single earnings figure. We apply the methods to a Swedish data set. Our results show that register earnings data perform poorly if there is a (small) probability of a mismatch. Survey earnings data are more reliable, despite their measurement error. Predictors that combine both and take conditional class probabilities into account outperform all other predictors.

Soft-decision decoding techniques for linear block codes and their error performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu

1996-01-01

The first paper presents a new minimum-weight trellis-based soft-decision iterative decoding algorithm for binary linear block codes. The second paper derives an upper bound on the probability of block error for multilevel concatenated codes (MLCC). The bound evaluates difference in performance for different decompositions of some codes. The third paper investigates the bit error probability code for maximum likelihood decoding of binary linear codes. The fourth and final paper included in this report is concerns itself with the construction of multilevel concatenated block modulation codes using a multilevel concatenation scheme for the frequency non-selective Rayleigh fading channel.

Performance of concatenated Reed-Solomon/Viterbi channel coding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divsalar, D.; Yuen, J. H.

1982-01-01

The concatenated Reed-Solomon (RS)/Viterbi coding system is reviewed. The performance of the system is analyzed and results are derived with a new simple approach. A functional model for the input RS symbol error probability is presented. Based on this new functional model, we compute the performance of a concatenated system in terms of RS word error probability, output RS symbol error probability, bit error probability due to decoding failure, and bit error probability due to decoding error. Finally we analyze the effects of the noisy carrier reference and the slow fading on the system performance.

On the Discriminant Analysis in the 2-Populations Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rublík, František

2008-01-01

The empirical Bayes Gaussian rule, which in the normal case yields good values of the probability of total error, may yield high values of the maximum probability error. From this point of view the presented modified version of the classification rule of Broffitt, Randles and Hogg appears to be superior. The modification included in this paper is termed as a WR method, and the choice of its weights is discussed. The mentioned methods are also compared with the K nearest neighbours classification rule.

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massey, J. L.

1976-01-01

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

Use of modeling to identify vulnerabilities to human error in laparoscopy.

PubMed

Funk, Kenneth H; Bauer, James D; Doolen, Toni L; Telasha, David; Nicolalde, R Javier; Reeber, Miriam; Yodpijit, Nantakrit; Long, Myra

2010-01-01

This article describes an exercise to investigate the utility of modeling and human factors analysis in understanding surgical processes and their vulnerabilities to medical error. A formal method to identify error vulnerabilities was developed and applied to a test case of Veress needle insertion during closed laparoscopy. A team of 2 surgeons, a medical assistant, and 3 engineers used hierarchical task analysis and Integrated DEFinition language 0 (IDEF0) modeling to create rich models of the processes used in initial port creation. Using terminology from a standardized human performance database, detailed task descriptions were written for 4 tasks executed in the process of inserting the Veress needle. Key terms from the descriptions were used to extract from the database generic errors that could occur. Task descriptions with potential errors were translated back into surgical terminology. Referring to the process models and task descriptions, the team used a modified failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to consider each potential error for its probability of occurrence, its consequences if it should occur and be undetected, and its probability of detection. The resulting likely and consequential errors were prioritized for intervention. A literature-based validation study confirmed the significance of the top error vulnerabilities identified using the method. Ongoing work includes design and evaluation of procedures to correct the identified vulnerabilities and improvements to the modeling and vulnerability identification methods. Copyright 2010 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance Analysis of an Inter-Relay Co-operation in FSO Communication System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Himanshu; Aggarwal, Mona; Ahuja, Swaran

2018-04-01

In this work, we analyze the outage and error performance of a one-way inter-relay assisted free space optical link. The assumption of the absence of direct link between the source and destination node is being made for the analysis, and the feasibility of such system configuration is studied. We consider the influence of path loss, atmospheric turbulence and pointing error impairments, and investigate the effect of these parameters on the system performance. The turbulence-induced fading is modeled by independent but not necessarily identically distributed gamma-gamma fading statistics. The closed-form expressions for outage probability and probability of error are derived and illustrated by numerical plots. It is concluded that the absence of line of sight path between source and destination nodes does not lead to significant performance degradation. Moreover, for the system model under consideration, interconnected relaying provides better error performance than the non-interconnected relaying and dual-hop serial relaying techniques.

Theoretical Analysis of Rain Attenuation Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Surendra Kr.; Jha, Santosh Kr.; Jha, Lallan

2007-07-01

Satellite communication technologies are now highly developed and high quality, distance-independent services have expanded over a very wide area. As for the system design of the Hokkaido integrated telecommunications(HIT) network, it must first overcome outages of satellite links due to rain attenuation in ka frequency bands. In this paper theoretical analysis of rain attenuation probability on a slant path has been made. The formula proposed is based Weibull distribution and incorporates recent ITU-R recommendations concerning the necessary rain rates and rain heights inputs. The error behaviour of the model was tested with the loading rain attenuation prediction model recommended by ITU-R for large number of experiments at different probability levels. The novel slant path rain attenuastion prediction model compared to the ITU-R one exhibits a similar behaviour at low time percentages and a better root-mean-square error performance for probability levels above 0.02%. The set of presented models exhibits the advantage of implementation with little complexity and is considered useful for educational and back of the envelope computations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps/incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Integrated Data Analysis for Fusion: A Bayesian Tutorial for Fusion Diagnosticians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinklage, Andreas; Dreier, Heiko; Fischer, Rainer; Gori, Silvio; Preuss, Roland; Toussaint, Udo von

2008-03-01

Integrated Data Analysis (IDA) offers a unified way of combining information relevant to fusion experiments. Thereby, IDA meets with typical issues arising in fusion data analysis. In IDA, all information is consistently formulated as probability density functions quantifying uncertainties in the analysis within the Bayesian probability theory. For a single diagnostic, IDA allows the identification of faulty measurements and improvements in the setup. For a set of diagnostics, IDA gives joint error distributions allowing the comparison and integration of different diagnostics results. Validation of physics models can be performed by model comparison techniques. Typical data analysis applications benefit from IDA capabilities of nonlinear error propagation, the inclusion of systematic effects and the comparison of different physics models. Applications range from outlier detection, background discrimination, model assessment and design of diagnostics. In order to cope with next step fusion device requirements, appropriate techniques are explored for fast analysis applications.

Type I error probability spending for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance with binomial data.

PubMed

Silva, Ivair R

2018-01-15

Type I error probability spending functions are commonly used for designing sequential analysis of binomial data in clinical trials, but it is also quickly emerging for near-continuous sequential analysis of post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. It is well known that, for clinical trials, when the null hypothesis is not rejected, it is still important to minimize the sample size. Unlike in post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance, that is not important. In post-market safety surveillance, specially when the surveillance involves identification of potential signals, the meaningful statistical performance measure to be minimized is the expected sample size when the null hypothesis is rejected. The present paper shows that, instead of the convex Type I error spending shape conventionally used in clinical trials, a concave shape is more indicated for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. This is shown for both, continuous and group sequential analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Performance analysis of a cascaded coding scheme with interleaved outer code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1986-01-01

A cascaded coding scheme for a random error channel with a bit-error rate is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code C sub 1 is an (n sub 1, m sub 1l) binary linear block code which is designed for simultaneous error correction and detection. The outer code C sub 2 is a linear block code with symbols from the Galois field GF (2 sup l) which is designed for correcting both symbol errors and erasures, and is interleaved with a degree m sub 1. A procedure for computing the probability of a correct decoding is presented and an upper bound on the probability of a decoding error is derived. The bound provides much better results than the previous bound for a cascaded coding scheme with an interleaved outer code. Example schemes with inner codes ranging from high rates to very low rates are evaluated. Several schemes provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit-error rates say 10 to the -1 to 10 to the -2 power.

Validation of Metrics as Error Predictors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendling, Jan

In this chapter, we test the validity of metrics that were defined in the previous chapter for predicting errors in EPC business process models. In Section 5.1, we provide an overview of how the analysis data is generated. Section 5.2 describes the sample of EPCs from practice that we use for the analysis. Here we discuss a disaggregation by the EPC model group and by error as well as a correlation analysis between metrics and error. Based on this sample, we calculate a logistic regression model for predicting error probability with the metrics as input variables in Section 5.3. In Section 5.4, we then test the regression function for an independent sample of EPC models from textbooks as a cross-validation. Section 5.5 summarizes the findings.

Threshold detection in an on-off binary communications channel with atmospheric scintillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, W. E.; Marino, J. T., Jr.

1974-01-01

The optimum detection threshold in an on-off binary optical communications system operating in the presence of atmospheric turbulence was investigated assuming a poisson detection process and log normal scintillation. The dependence of the probability of bit error on log amplitude variance and received signal strength was analyzed and semi-emperical relationships to predict the optimum detection threshold derived. On the basis of this analysis a piecewise linear model for an adaptive threshold detection system is presented. Bit error probabilities for non-optimum threshold detection system were also investigated.

Threshold detection in an on-off binary communications channel with atmospheric scintillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, W. E.

1975-01-01

The optimum detection threshold in an on-off binary optical communications system operating in the presence of atmospheric turbulence was investigated assuming a poisson detection process and log normal scintillation. The dependence of the probability of bit error on log amplitude variance and received signal strength was analyzed and semi-empirical relationships to predict the optimum detection threshold derived. On the basis of this analysis a piecewise linear model for an adaptive threshold detection system is presented. The bit error probabilities for nonoptimum threshold detection systems were also investigated.

Objective Analysis of Oceanic Data for Coast Guard Trajectory Models Phase II

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-12-01

as outliers depends on the desired probability of false alarm, Pfa values, which is the probability of marking a valid point as an outlier. Table 2-2...constructed to minimize the mean-squared prediction error of the grid point estimate under the constraint that the estimate is unbiased . The...prediction error, e= Zl(S) _oizl(Si)+oC1iZz(S) (2.44) subject to the constraints of unbiasedness , • c/1 = 1,and (2.45) i SCC12 = 0. (2.46) Denoting

Fundamental Bounds for Sequence Reconstruction from Nanopore Sequencers.

PubMed

Magner, Abram; Duda, Jarosław; Szpankowski, Wojciech; Grama, Ananth

2016-06-01

Nanopore sequencers are emerging as promising new platforms for high-throughput sequencing. As with other technologies, sequencer errors pose a major challenge for their effective use. In this paper, we present a novel information theoretic analysis of the impact of insertion-deletion (indel) errors in nanopore sequencers. In particular, we consider the following problems: (i) for given indel error characteristics and rate, what is the probability of accurate reconstruction as a function of sequence length; (ii) using replicated extrusion (the process of passing a DNA strand through the nanopore), what is the number of replicas needed to accurately reconstruct the true sequence with high probability? Our results provide a number of important insights: (i) the probability of accurate reconstruction of a sequence from a single sample in the presence of indel errors tends quickly (i.e., exponentially) to zero as the length of the sequence increases; and (ii) replicated extrusion is an effective technique for accurate reconstruction. We show that for typical distributions of indel errors, the required number of replicas is a slow function (polylogarithmic) of sequence length - implying that through replicated extrusion, we can sequence large reads using nanopore sequencers. Moreover, we show that in certain cases, the required number of replicas can be related to information-theoretic parameters of the indel error distributions.

Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in BPA Control Area: Task 2 Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Shuai; Makarov, Yuri V.; McKinstry, Craig A.

Task report detailing low probability tail event analysis and mitigation in BPA control area. Tail event refers to the situation in a power system when unfavorable forecast errors of load and wind are superposed onto fast load and wind ramps, or non-wind generators falling short of scheduled output, causing the imbalance between generation and load to become very significant.

Student Distractor Choices on the Mathematics Virginia Standards of Learning Middle School Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Virginia Vimpeny

2011-01-01

Number Concepts; Measurement; Geometry; Probability; Statistics; and Patterns, Functions and Algebra. Procedural Errors were further categorized into the following content categories: Computation; Measurement; Statistics; and Patterns, Functions, and Algebra. The results of the analysis showed the main sources of error for 6th, 7th, and 8th…

A Generalized Process Model of Human Action Selection and Error and its Application to Error Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

Macmillan & Creelman , 2005). This is a quite high degree of discriminability and it means that when the decision model predicts a probability of...ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, 27(8), 861-874. Retrieved from Google Scholar. Macmillan, N. A., & Creelman , C. D. (2005). Detection

Two-step estimation in ratio-of-mediator-probability weighted causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Bein, Edward; Deutsch, Jonah; Hong, Guanglei; Porter, Kristin E; Qin, Xu; Yang, Cheng

2018-04-15

This study investigates appropriate estimation of estimator variability in the context of causal mediation analysis that employs propensity score-based weighting. Such an analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on the outcome into an indirect effect transmitted through a focal mediator and a direct effect bypassing the mediator. Ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting estimates these causal effects by adjusting for the confounding impact of a large number of pretreatment covariates through propensity score-based weighting. In step 1, a propensity score model is estimated. In step 2, the causal effects of interest are estimated using weights derived from the prior step's regression coefficient estimates. Statistical inferences obtained from this 2-step estimation procedure are potentially problematic if the estimated standard errors of the causal effect estimates do not reflect the sampling uncertainty in the estimation of the weights. This study extends to ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting analysis a solution to the 2-step estimation problem by stacking the score functions from both steps. We derive the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the indirect effect and direct effect 2-step estimators, provide simulation results, and illustrate with an application study. Our simulation results indicate that the sampling uncertainty in the estimated weights should not be ignored. The standard error estimation using the stacking procedure offers a viable alternative to bootstrap standard error estimation. We discuss broad implications of this approach for causal analysis involving propensity score-based weighting. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Exploiting Outage and Error Probability of Cooperative Incremental Relaying in Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Nasir, Hina; Javaid, Nadeem; Sher, Muhammad; Qasim, Umar; Khan, Zahoor Ali; Alrajeh, Nabil; Niaz, Iftikhar Azim

2016-01-01

This paper embeds a bi-fold contribution for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs); performance analysis of incremental relaying in terms of outage and error probability, and based on the analysis proposition of two new cooperative routing protocols. Subject to the first contribution, a three step procedure is carried out; a system model is presented, the number of available relays are determined, and based on cooperative incremental retransmission methodology, closed-form expressions for outage and error probability are derived. Subject to the second contribution, Adaptive Cooperation in Energy (ACE) efficient depth based routing and Enhanced-ACE (E-ACE) are presented. In the proposed model, feedback mechanism indicates success or failure of data transmission. If direct transmission is successful, there is no need for relaying by cooperative relay nodes. In case of failure, all the available relays retransmit the data one by one till the desired signal quality is achieved at destination. Simulation results show that the ACE and E-ACE significantly improves network performance, i.e., throughput, when compared with other incremental relaying protocols like Cooperative Automatic Repeat reQuest (CARQ). E-ACE and ACE achieve 69% and 63% more throughput respectively as compared to CARQ in hard underwater environment. PMID:27420061

Potential benefit of electronic pharmacy claims data to prevent medication history errors and resultant inpatient order errors

PubMed Central

Palmer, Katherine A; Shane, Rita; Wu, Cindy N; Bell, Douglas S; Diaz, Frank; Cook-Wiens, Galen; Jackevicius, Cynthia A

2016-01-01

Objective We sought to assess the potential of a widely available source of electronic medication data to prevent medication history errors and resultant inpatient order errors. Methods We used admission medication history (AMH) data from a recent clinical trial that identified 1017 AMH errors and 419 resultant inpatient order errors among 194 hospital admissions of predominantly older adult patients on complex medication regimens. Among the subset of patients for whom we could access current Surescripts electronic pharmacy claims data (SEPCD), two pharmacists independently assessed error severity and our main outcome, which was whether SEPCD (1) was unrelated to the medication error; (2) probably would not have prevented the error; (3) might have prevented the error; or (4) probably would have prevented the error. Results Seventy patients had both AMH errors and current, accessible SEPCD. SEPCD probably would have prevented 110 (35%) of 315 AMH errors and 46 (31%) of 147 resultant inpatient order errors. When we excluded the least severe medication errors, SEPCD probably would have prevented 99 (47%) of 209 AMH errors and 37 (61%) of 61 resultant inpatient order errors. SEPCD probably would have prevented at least one AMH error in 42 (60%) of 70 patients. Conclusion When current SEPCD was available for older adult patients on complex medication regimens, it had substantial potential to prevent AMH errors and resultant inpatient order errors, with greater potential to prevent more severe errors. Further study is needed to measure the benefit of SEPCD in actual use at hospital admission. PMID:26911817

Reliability of drivers in urban intersections.

PubMed

Gstalter, Herbert; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

2010-01-01

The concept of human reliability has been widely used in industrial settings by human factors experts to optimise the person-task fit. Reliability is estimated by the probability that a task will successfully be completed by personnel in a given stage of system operation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a technique used to calculate human error probabilities as the ratio of errors committed to the number of opportunities for that error. To transfer this notion to the measurement of car driver reliability the following components are necessary: a taxonomy of driving tasks, a definition of correct behaviour in each of these tasks, a list of errors as deviations from the correct actions and an adequate observation method to register errors and opportunities for these errors. Use of the SAFE-task analysis procedure recently made it possible to derive driver errors directly from the normative analysis of behavioural requirements. Driver reliability estimates could be used to compare groups of tasks (e.g. different types of intersections with their respective regulations) as well as groups of drivers' or individual drivers' aptitudes. This approach was tested in a field study with 62 drivers of different age groups. The subjects drove an instrumented car and had to complete an urban test route, the main features of which were 18 intersections representing six different driving tasks. The subjects were accompanied by two trained observers who recorded driver errors using standardized observation sheets. Results indicate that error indices often vary between both the age group of drivers and the type of driving task. The highest error indices occurred in the non-signalised intersection tasks and the roundabout, which exactly equals the corresponding ratings of task complexity from the SAFE analysis. A comparison of age groups clearly shows the disadvantage of older drivers, whose error indices in nearly all tasks are significantly higher than those of the other groups. The vast majority of these errors could be explained by high task load in the intersections, as they represent difficult tasks. The discussion shows how reliability estimates can be used in a constructive way to propose changes in car design, intersection layout and regulation as well as driver training.

Asteroid orbital error analysis: Theory and application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muinonen, K.; Bowell, Edward

1992-01-01

We present a rigorous Bayesian theory for asteroid orbital error estimation in which the probability density of the orbital elements is derived from the noise statistics of the observations. For Gaussian noise in a linearized approximation the probability density is also Gaussian, and the errors of the orbital elements at a given epoch are fully described by the covariance matrix. The law of error propagation can then be applied to calculate past and future positional uncertainty ellipsoids (Cappellari et al. 1976, Yeomans et al. 1987, Whipple et al. 1991). To our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian approach has been formulated for orbital element estimation. In contrast to the classical Fisherian school of statistics, the Bayesian school allows a priori information to be formally present in the final estimation. However, Bayesian estimation does give the same results as Fisherian estimation when no priori information is assumed (Lehtinen 1988, and reference therein).

Cost effectiveness of a pharmacist-led information technology intervention for reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices (PINCER).

PubMed

Elliott, Rachel A; Putman, Koen D; Franklin, Matthew; Annemans, Lieven; Verhaeghe, Nick; Eden, Martin; Hayre, Jasdeep; Rodgers, Sarah; Sheikh, Aziz; Avery, Anthony J

2014-06-01

We recently showed that a pharmacist-led information technology-based intervention (PINCER) was significantly more effective in reducing medication errors in general practices than providing simple feedback on errors, with cost per error avoided at £79 (US$131). We aimed to estimate cost effectiveness of the PINCER intervention by combining effectiveness in error reduction and intervention costs with the effect of the individual errors on patient outcomes and healthcare costs, to estimate the effect on costs and QALYs. We developed Markov models for each of six medication errors targeted by PINCER. Clinical event probability, treatment pathway, resource use and costs were extracted from literature and costing tariffs. A composite probabilistic model combined patient-level error models with practice-level error rates and intervention costs from the trial. Cost per extra QALY and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were generated from the perspective of NHS England, with a 5-year time horizon. The PINCER intervention generated £2,679 less cost and 0.81 more QALYs per practice [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER): -£3,037 per QALY] in the deterministic analysis. In the probabilistic analysis, PINCER generated 0.001 extra QALYs per practice compared with simple feedback, at £4.20 less per practice. Despite this extremely small set of differences in costs and outcomes, PINCER dominated simple feedback with a mean ICER of -£3,936 (standard error £2,970). At a ceiling 'willingness-to-pay' of £20,000/QALY, PINCER reaches 59 % probability of being cost effective. PINCER produced marginal health gain at slightly reduced overall cost. Results are uncertain due to the poor quality of data to inform the effect of avoiding errors.

Precoded spatial multiplexing MIMO system with spatial component interleaver.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang; Wu, Zhanji

In this paper, the performance of precoded bit-interleaved coded modulation (BICM) spatial multiplexing multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) system with spatial component interleaver is investigated. For the ideal precoded spatial multiplexing MIMO system with spatial component interleaver based on singular value decomposition (SVD) of the MIMO channel, the average pairwise error probability (PEP) of coded bits is derived. Based on the PEP analysis, the optimum spatial Q-component interleaver design criterion is provided to achieve the minimum error probability. For the limited feedback precoded proposed scheme with linear zero forcing (ZF) receiver, in order to minimize a bound on the average probability of a symbol vector error, a novel effective signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)-based precoding matrix selection criterion and a simplified criterion are proposed. Based on the average mutual information (AMI)-maximization criterion, the optimal constellation rotation angles are investigated. Simulation results indicate that the optimized spatial multiplexing MIMO system with spatial component interleaver can achieve significant performance advantages compared to the conventional spatial multiplexing MIMO system.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simonen, E.P.; Johnson, K.I.; Simonen, F.A.

The Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis (VISA-II) code was developed to allow calculations of the failure probability of a reactor pressure vessel subject to defined pressure/temperature transients. A version of the code, revised by Pacific Northwest Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, was used to evaluate the sensitivities of calculated through-wall flaw probability to material, flaw and calculational assumptions. Probabilities were more sensitive to flaw assumptions than to material or calculational assumptions. Alternative flaw assumptions changed the probabilities by one to two orders of magnitude, whereas alternative material assumptions typically changed the probabilities by a factor of two or less.more » Flaw shape, flaw through-wall position and flaw inspection were sensitivities examined. Material property sensitivities included the assumed distributions in copper content and fracture toughness. Methods of modeling flaw propagation that were evaluated included arrest/reinitiation toughness correlations, multiple toughness values along the length of a flaw, flaw jump distance for each computer simulation and added error in estimating irradiated properties caused by the trend curve correlation error.« less

Trellises and Trellis-Based Decoding Algorithms for Linear Block Codes. Part 3; The Map and Related Decoding Algirithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc

1998-01-01

In a coded communication system with equiprobable signaling, MLD minimizes the word error probability and delivers the most likely codeword associated with the corresponding received sequence. This decoding has two drawbacks. First, minimization of the word error probability is not equivalent to minimization of the bit error probability. Therefore, MLD becomes suboptimum with respect to the bit error probability. Second, MLD delivers a hard-decision estimate of the received sequence, so that information is lost between the input and output of the ML decoder. This information is important in coded schemes where the decoded sequence is further processed, such as concatenated coding schemes, multi-stage and iterative decoding schemes. In this chapter, we first present a decoding algorithm which both minimizes bit error probability, and provides the corresponding soft information at the output of the decoder. This algorithm is referred to as the MAP (maximum aposteriori probability) decoding algorithm.

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1985-01-01

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Analysis of space telescope data collection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.; Schoggen, W. O.

1982-01-01

An analysis of the expected performance for the Multiple Access (MA) system is provided. The analysis covers the expected bit error rate performance, the effects of synchronization loss, the problem of self-interference, and the problem of phase ambiguity. The problem of false acceptance of a command word due to data inversion is discussed. A mathematical determination of the probability of accepting an erroneous command word due to a data inversion is presented. The problem is examined for three cases: (1) a data inversion only, (2) a data inversion and a random error within the same command word, and a block (up to 256 48-bit words) containing both a data inversion and a random error.

State space truncation with quantified errors for accurate solutions to discrete Chemical Master Equation

PubMed Central

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

2016-01-01

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEG), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. We further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of 1) the birth and death model, 2) the single gene expression model, 3) the genetic toggle switch model, and 4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate out theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks. PMID:27105653

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. Wemore » further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.« less

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

DOE PAGES

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

2016-04-22

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. Wemore » further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.« less

Fusion of Scores in a Detection Context Based on Alpha Integration.

PubMed

Soriano, Antonio; Vergara, Luis; Ahmed, Bouziane; Salazar, Addisson

2015-09-01

We present a new method for fusing scores corresponding to different detectors (two-hypotheses case). It is based on alpha integration, which we have adapted to the detection context. Three optimization methods are presented: least mean square error, maximization of the area under the ROC curve, and minimization of the probability of error. Gradient algorithms are proposed for the three methods. Different experiments with simulated and real data are included. Simulated data consider the two-detector case to illustrate the factors influencing alpha integration and demonstrate the improvements obtained by score fusion with respect to individual detector performance. Two real data cases have been considered. In the first, multimodal biometric data have been processed. This case is representative of scenarios in which the probability of detection is to be maximized for a given probability of false alarm. The second case is the automatic analysis of electroencephalogram and electrocardiogram records with the aim of reproducing the medical expert detections of arousal during sleeping. This case is representative of scenarios in which probability of error is to be minimized. The general superior performance of alpha integration verifies the interest of optimizing the fusing parameters.

Computational Methods for Structural Mechanics and Dynamics, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stroud, W. Jefferson (Editor); Housner, Jerrold M. (Editor); Tanner, John A. (Editor); Hayduk, Robert J. (Editor)

1989-01-01

The structural analysis methods research has several goals. One goal is to develop analysis methods that are general. This goal of generality leads naturally to finite-element methods, but the research will also include other structural analysis methods. Another goal is that the methods be amenable to error analysis; that is, given a physical problem and a mathematical model of that problem, an analyst would like to know the probable error in predicting a given response quantity. The ultimate objective is to specify the error tolerances and to use automated logic to adjust the mathematical model or solution strategy to obtain that accuracy. A third goal is to develop structural analysis methods that can exploit parallel processing computers. The structural analysis methods research will focus initially on three types of problems: local/global nonlinear stress analysis, nonlinear transient dynamics, and tire modeling.

Analysis of synchronous digital-modulation schemes for satellite communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takhar, G. S.; Gupta, S. C.

1975-01-01

The multipath communication channel for space communications is modeled as a multiplicative channel. This paper discusses the effects of multiplicative channel processes on the symbol error rate for quadrature modulation (QM) digital modulation schemes. An expression for the upper bound on the probability of error is derived and numerically evaluated. The results are compared with those obtained for additive channels.

Clinical implementation and failure mode and effects analysis of HDR skin brachytherapy using Valencia and Leipzig surface applicators.

PubMed

Sayler, Elaine; Eldredge-Hindy, Harriet; Dinome, Jessie; Lockamy, Virginia; Harrison, Amy S

2015-01-01

The planning procedure for Valencia and Leipzig surface applicators (VLSAs) (Nucletron, Veenendaal, The Netherlands) differs substantially from CT-based planning; the unfamiliarity could lead to significant errors. This study applies failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to high-dose-rate (HDR) skin brachytherapy using VLSAs to ensure safety and quality. A multidisciplinary team created a protocol for HDR VLSA skin treatments and applied FMEA. Failure modes were identified and scored by severity, occurrence, and detectability. The clinical procedure was then revised to address high-scoring process nodes. Several key components were added to the protocol to minimize risk probability numbers. (1) Diagnosis, prescription, applicator selection, and setup are reviewed at weekly quality assurance rounds. Peer review reduces the likelihood of an inappropriate treatment regime. (2) A template for HDR skin treatments was established in the clinic's electronic medical record system to standardize treatment instructions. This reduces the chances of miscommunication between the physician and planner as well as increases the detectability of an error. (3) A screen check was implemented during the second check to increase detectability of an error. (4) To reduce error probability, the treatment plan worksheet was designed to display plan parameters in a format visually similar to the treatment console display, facilitating data entry and verification. (5) VLSAs are color coded and labeled to match the electronic medical record prescriptions, simplifying in-room selection and verification. Multidisciplinary planning and FMEA increased detectability and reduced error probability during VLSA HDR brachytherapy. This clinical model may be useful to institutions implementing similar procedures. Copyright © 2015 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fisher classifier and its probability of error estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

Computationally efficient expressions are derived for estimating the probability of error using the leave-one-out method. The optimal threshold for the classification of patterns projected onto Fisher's direction is derived. A simple generalization of the Fisher classifier to multiple classes is presented. Computational expressions are developed for estimating the probability of error of the multiclass Fisher classifier.

Failure analysis and modeling of a VAXcluster system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Dong; Iyer, Ravishankar K.; Subramani, Sujatha S.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses the results of a measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a DEC VAXcluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system dependability characteristics such as error and failure distributions and hazard rates for both individual machines and for the VAXcluster, reward models were developed to analyze the impact of failures on the system as a whole. The results show that more than 46 percent of all failures were due to errors in shared resources. This is despite the fact that these errors have a recovery probability greater than 0.99. The hazard rate calculations show that not only errors, but also failures occur in bursts. Approximately 40 percent of all failures occur in bursts and involved multiple machines. This result indicates that correlated failures are significant. Analysis of rewards shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.05 vs 0.74 for disk errors). The expected reward rate (reliability measure) of the VAXcluster drops to 0.5 in 18 hours for the 7-out-of-7 model and in 80 days for the 3-out-of-7 model.

Average symbol error rate for M-ary quadrature amplitude modulation in generalized atmospheric turbulence and misalignment errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Prabhat Kumar

2016-11-01

A framework is presented for the analysis of average symbol error rate (SER) for M-ary quadrature amplitude modulation in a free-space optical communication system. The standard probability density function (PDF)-based approach is extended to evaluate the average SER by representing the Q-function through its Meijer's G-function equivalent. Specifically, a converging power series expression for the average SER is derived considering the zero-boresight misalignment errors in the receiver side. The analysis presented here assumes a unified expression for the PDF of channel coefficient which incorporates the M-distributed atmospheric turbulence and Rayleigh-distributed radial displacement for the misalignment errors. The analytical results are compared with the results obtained using Q-function approximation. Further, the presented results are supported by the Monte Carlo simulations.

Neuropsychological analysis of a typewriting disturbance following cerebral damage.

PubMed

Boyle, M; Canter, G J

1987-01-01

Following a left CVA, a skilled professional typist sustained a disturbance of typing disproportionate to her handwriting disturbance. Typing errors were predominantly of the sequencing type, with spatial errors much less frequent, suggesting that the impairment was based on a relatively early (premotor) stage of processing. Depriving the subject of visual feedback during handwriting greatly increased her error rate. Similarly, interfering with auditory feedback during speech substantially reduced her self-correction of speech errors. These findings suggested that impaired ability to utilize somesthetic information--probably caused by the subject's parietal lobe lesion--may have been the basis of the typing disorder.

Relating Regime Structure to Probability Distribution and Preferred Structure of Small Errors in a Large Atmospheric GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straus, D. M.

2007-12-01

The probability distribution (pdf) of errors is followed in identical twin studies using the COLA T63 AGCM, integrated with observed SST for 15 recent winters. 30 integrations per winter (for 15 winters) are available with initial errors that are extremely small. The evolution of the pdf is tested for multi-modality, and the results interpreted in terms of clusters / regimes found in: (a) the set of 15x30 integrations mentioned, and (b) a larger ensemble of 55x15 integrations made with the same GCM using the same SSTs. The mapping of pdf evolution and clusters is also carried out for each winter separately, using the clusters found in the 55-member ensemble for the same winter alone. This technique yields information on the change in regimes caused by different boundary forcing (Straus and Molteni, 2004; Straus, Corti and Molteni, 2006). Analysis of the growing errors in terms of baroclinic and barotropic components allows for interpretation of the corresponding instabilities.

SEC proton prediction model: verification and analysis.

PubMed

Balch, C C

1999-06-01

This paper describes a model that has been used at the NOAA Space Environment Center since the early 1970s as a guide for the prediction of solar energetic particle events. The algorithms for proton event probability, peak flux, and rise time are described. The predictions are compared with observations. The current model shows some ability to distinguish between proton event associated flares and flares that are not associated with proton events. The comparisons of predicted and observed peak flux show considerable scatter, with an rms error of almost an order of magnitude. Rise time comparisons also show scatter, with an rms error of approximately 28 h. The model algorithms are analyzed using historical data and improvements are suggested. Implementation of the algorithm modifications reduces the rms error in the log10 of the flux prediction by 21%, and the rise time rms error by 31%. Improvements are also realized in the probability prediction by deriving the conditional climatology for proton event occurrence given flare characteristics.

A cascaded coding scheme for error control and its performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Kasami, Tadao; Fujiwara, Tohru; Takata, Toyoo

1986-01-01

A coding scheme is investigated for error control in data communication systems. The scheme is obtained by cascading two error correcting codes, called the inner and outer codes. The error performance of the scheme is analyzed for a binary symmetric channel with bit error rate epsilon <1/2. It is shown that if the inner and outer codes are chosen properly, extremely high reliability can be attained even for a high channel bit error rate. Various specific example schemes with inner codes ranging form high rates to very low rates and Reed-Solomon codes as inner codes are considered, and their error probabilities are evaluated. They all provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit error rates. Several example schemes are being considered by NASA for satellite and spacecraft down link error control.

A simulator for evaluating methods for the detection of lesion-deficit associations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Megalooikonomou, V.; Davatzikos, C.; Herskovits, E. H.

2000-01-01

Although much has been learned about the functional organization of the human brain through lesion-deficit analysis, the variety of statistical and image-processing methods developed for this purpose precludes a closed-form analysis of the statistical power of these systems. Therefore, we developed a lesion-deficit simulator (LDS), which generates artificial subjects, each of which consists of a set of functional deficits, and a brain image with lesions; the deficits and lesions conform to predefined distributions. We used probability distributions to model the number, sizes, and spatial distribution of lesions, to model the structure-function associations, and to model registration error. We used the LDS to evaluate, as examples, the effects of the complexities and strengths of lesion-deficit associations, and of registration error, on the power of lesion-deficit analysis. We measured the numbers of recovered associations from these simulated data, as a function of the number of subjects analyzed, the strengths and number of associations in the statistical model, the number of structures associated with a particular function, and the prior probabilities of structures being abnormal. The number of subjects required to recover the simulated lesion-deficit associations was found to have an inverse relationship to the strength of associations, and to the smallest probability in the structure-function model. The number of structures associated with a particular function (i.e., the complexity of associations) had a much greater effect on the performance of the analysis method than did the total number of associations. We also found that registration error of 5 mm or less reduces the number of associations discovered by approximately 13% compared to perfect registration. The LDS provides a flexible framework for evaluating many aspects of lesion-deficit analysis.

Error Patterns in Ordering Fractions among At-Risk Fourth-Grade Students

PubMed Central

Malone, Amelia S.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

2016-01-01

The 3 purposes of this study were to: (a) describe fraction ordering errors among at-risk 4th-grade students; (b) assess the effect of part-whole understanding and accuracy of fraction magnitude estimation on the probability of committing errors; and (c) examine the effect of students' ability to explain comparing problems on the probability of committing errors. Students (n = 227) completed a 9-item ordering test. A high proportion (81%) of problems were completed incorrectly. Most (65% of) errors were due to students misapplying whole number logic to fractions. Fraction-magnitude estimation skill, but not part-whole understanding, significantly predicted the probability of committing this type of error. Implications for practice are discussed. PMID:26966153

Sensitivity study on durability variables of marine concrete structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xin'gang; Li, Kefei

2013-06-01

In order to study the influence of parameters on durability of marine concrete structures, the parameter's sensitivity analysis was studied in this paper. With the Fick's 2nd law of diffusion and the deterministic sensitivity analysis method (DSA), the sensitivity factors of apparent surface chloride content, apparent chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the impact of design variables on concrete durability was different. The values of sensitivity factor of chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were higher than others. Relative less error in chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation coefficient induces a bigger error in concrete durability design and life prediction. According to probability sensitivity analysis (PSA), the influence of mean value and variance of concrete durability design variables on the durability failure probability was studied. The results of the study provide quantitative measures of the importance of concrete durability design and life prediction variables. It was concluded that the chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor have more influence on the reliability of marine concrete structural durability. In durability design and life prediction of marine concrete structures, it was very important to reduce the measure and statistic error of durability design variables.

Doctors' duty to disclose error: a deontological or Kantian ethical analysis.

PubMed

Bernstein, Mark; Brown, Barry

2004-05-01

Medical (surgical) error is being talked about more openly and besides being the subject of retrospective reviews, is now the subject of prospective research. Disclosure of error has been a difficult issue because of fear of embarrassment for doctors in the eyes of their peers, and fear of punitive action by patients, consisting of medicolegal action and/or complaints to doctors' governing bodies. This paper examines physicians' and surgeons' duty to disclose error, from an ethical standpoint; specifically by applying the moral philosophical theory espoused by Immanuel Kant (ie. deontology). The purpose of this discourse is to apply moral philosophical analysis to a delicate but important issue which will be a matter all physicians and surgeons will have to confront, probably numerous times, in their professional careers.

Probability of undetected error after decoding for a concatenated coding scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Lin, S.

1984-01-01

A concatenated coding scheme for error control in data communications is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code is used for both error correction and detection, however the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if the outer code detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error is derived and bounded. A particular example, proposed for NASA telecommand system is analyzed.

Delay Analysis and Optimization of Bandwidth Request under Unicast Polling in IEEE 802.16e over Gilbert-Elliot Error Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Eunju; Kim, Kyung Jae; Roijers, Frank; Choi, Bong Dae

In the centralized polling mode in IEEE 802.16e, a base station (BS) polls mobile stations (MSs) for bandwidth reservation in one of three polling modes; unicast, multicast, or broadcast pollings. In unicast polling, the BS polls each individual MS to allow to transmit a bandwidth request packet. This paper presents an analytical model for the unicast polling of bandwidth request in IEEE 802.16e networks over Gilbert-Elliot error channel. We derive the probability distribution for the delay of bandwidth requests due to wireless transmission errors and find the loss probability of request packets due to finite retransmission attempts. By using the delay distribution and the loss probability, we optimize the number of polling slots within a frame and the maximum retransmission number while satisfying QoS on the total loss probability which combines two losses: packet loss due to the excess of maximum retransmission and delay outage loss due to the maximum tolerable delay bound. In addition, we obtain the utilization of polling slots, which is defined as the ratio of the number of polling slots used for the MS's successful transmission to the total number of polling slots used by the MS over a long run time. Analysis results are shown to well match with simulation results. Numerical results give examples of the optimal number of polling slots within a frame and the optimal maximum retransmission number depending on delay bounds, the number of MSs, and the channel conditions.

The genomic structure: proof of the role of non-coding DNA.

PubMed

Bouaynaya, Nidhal; Schonfeld, Dan

2006-01-01

We prove that the introns play the role of a decoy in absorbing mutations in the same way hollow uninhabited structures are used by the military to protect important installations. Our approach is based on a probability of error analysis, where errors are mutations which occur in the exon sequences. We derive the optimal exon length distribution, which minimizes the probability of error in the genome. Furthermore, to understand how can Nature generate the optimal distribution, we propose a diffusive random walk model for exon generation throughout evolution. This model results in an alpha stable exon length distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to the optimal distribution. Experimental results show that both distributions accurately fit the real data. Given that introns also drive biological evolution by increasing the rate of unequal crossover between genes, we conclude that the role of introns is to maintain a genius balance between stability and adaptability in eukaryotic genomes.

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2010-01-01

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

Linguistic pattern analysis of misspellings of typically developing writers in grades 1-9.

PubMed

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Sillian, Elaine R; Berninger, Virginia W; Dow, Michael

2012-12-01

A mixed-methods approach, evaluating triple word-form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in Grades 1-9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade-level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between Grades 4 and 5. Similar error types were noted across age groups, but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Triple word-form theory was supported. By Grade 1, orthographic errors predominated, and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects nonlinear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling.

Analysis of the Hessian for Inverse Scattering Problems. Part 3. Inverse Medium Scattering of Electromagnetic Waves in Three Dimensions

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

small data noise and model error, the discrete Hessian can be approximated by a low-rank matrix. This in turn enables fast solution of an appropriately...implication of the compactness of the Hessian is that for small data noise and model error, the discrete Hessian can be approximated by a low-rank matrix. This...probability distribution is given by the inverse of the Hessian of the negative log likelihood function. For Gaussian data noise and model error, this

A cascaded coding scheme for error control and its performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1986-01-01

A coding scheme for error control in data communication systems is investigated. The scheme is obtained by cascading two error correcting codes, called the inner and the outer codes. The error performance of the scheme is analyzed for a binary symmetric channel with bit error rate epsilon < 1/2. It is shown that, if the inner and outer codes are chosen properly, extremely high reliability can be attained even for a high channel bit error rate. Various specific example schemes with inner codes ranging from high rates to very low rates and Reed-Solomon codes are considered, and their probabilities are evaluated. They all provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit error rates, say 0.1 to 0.01. Several example schemes are being considered by NASA for satellite and spacecraft down link error control.

On the timing problem in optical PPM communications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gagliardi, R. M.

1971-01-01

Investigation of the effects of imperfect timing in a direct-detection (noncoherent) optical system using pulse-position-modulation bits. Special emphasis is placed on specification of timing accuracy, and an examination of system degradation when this accuracy is not attained. Bit error probabilities are shown as a function of timing errors, from which average error probabilities can be computed for specific synchronization methods. Of significant importance is shown to be the presence of a residual, or irreducible error probability, due entirely to the timing system, that cannot be overcome by the data channel.

Assessing Gaussian Assumption of PMU Measurement Error Using Field Data

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shaobu; Zhao, Junbo; Huang, Zhenyu; ...

2017-10-13

Gaussian PMU measurement error has been assumed for many power system applications, such as state estimation, oscillatory modes monitoring, voltage stability analysis, to cite a few. This letter proposes a simple yet effective approach to assess this assumption by using the stability property of a probability distribution and the concept of redundant measurement. Extensive results using field PMU data from WECC system reveal that the Gaussian assumption is questionable.

Quantitative Analysis Tools and Digital Phantoms for Deformable Image Registration Quality Assurance.

PubMed

Kim, Haksoo; Park, Samuel B; Monroe, James I; Traughber, Bryan J; Zheng, Yiran; Lo, Simon S; Yao, Min; Mansur, David; Ellis, Rodney; Machtay, Mitchell; Sohn, Jason W

2015-08-01

This article proposes quantitative analysis tools and digital phantoms to quantify intrinsic errors of deformable image registration (DIR) systems and establish quality assurance (QA) procedures for clinical use of DIR systems utilizing local and global error analysis methods with clinically realistic digital image phantoms. Landmark-based image registration verifications are suitable only for images with significant feature points. To address this shortfall, we adapted a deformation vector field (DVF) comparison approach with new analysis techniques to quantify the results. Digital image phantoms are derived from data sets of actual patient images (a reference image set, R, a test image set, T). Image sets from the same patient taken at different times are registered with deformable methods producing a reference DVFref. Applying DVFref to the original reference image deforms T into a new image R'. The data set, R', T, and DVFref, is from a realistic truth set and therefore can be used to analyze any DIR system and expose intrinsic errors by comparing DVFref and DVFtest. For quantitative error analysis, calculating and delineating differences between DVFs, 2 methods were used, (1) a local error analysis tool that displays deformation error magnitudes with color mapping on each image slice and (2) a global error analysis tool that calculates a deformation error histogram, which describes a cumulative probability function of errors for each anatomical structure. Three digital image phantoms were generated from three patients with a head and neck, a lung and a liver cancer. The DIR QA was evaluated using the case with head and neck. © The Author(s) 2014.

A shift from significance test to hypothesis test through power analysis in medical research.

PubMed

Singh, G

2006-01-01

Medical research literature until recently, exhibited substantial dominance of the Fisher's significance test approach of statistical inference concentrating more on probability of type I error over Neyman-Pearson's hypothesis test considering both probability of type I and II error. Fisher's approach dichotomises results into significant or not significant results with a P value. The Neyman-Pearson's approach talks of acceptance or rejection of null hypothesis. Based on the same theory these two approaches deal with same objective and conclude in their own way. The advancement in computing techniques and availability of statistical software have resulted in increasing application of power calculations in medical research and thereby reporting the result of significance tests in the light of power of the test also. Significance test approach, when it incorporates power analysis contains the essence of hypothesis test approach. It may be safely argued that rising application of power analysis in medical research may have initiated a shift from Fisher's significance test to Neyman-Pearson's hypothesis test procedure.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks.

PubMed

Eichele, Tom; Debener, Stefan; Calhoun, Vince D; Specht, Karsten; Engel, Andreas K; Hugdahl, Kenneth; von Cramon, D Yves; Ullsperger, Markus

2008-04-22

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional MRI and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we studied error preceding brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis. We found a set of brain regions in which the temporal evolution of activation predicted performance errors. These maladaptive brain activity changes started to evolve approximately 30 sec before the error. In particular, a coincident decrease of deactivation in default mode regions of the brain, together with a decline of activation in regions associated with maintaining task effort, raised the probability of future errors. Our findings provide insights into the brain network dynamics preceding human performance errors and suggest that monitoring of the identified precursor states may help in avoiding human errors in critical real-world situations.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks

PubMed Central

Eichele, Tom; Debener, Stefan; Calhoun, Vince D.; Specht, Karsten; Engel, Andreas K.; Hugdahl, Kenneth; von Cramon, D. Yves; Ullsperger, Markus

2008-01-01

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional MRI and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we studied error preceding brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis. We found a set of brain regions in which the temporal evolution of activation predicted performance errors. These maladaptive brain activity changes started to evolve ≈30 sec before the error. In particular, a coincident decrease of deactivation in default mode regions of the brain, together with a decline of activation in regions associated with maintaining task effort, raised the probability of future errors. Our findings provide insights into the brain network dynamics preceding human performance errors and suggest that monitoring of the identified precursor states may help in avoiding human errors in critical real-world situations. PMID:18427123

Exploring the impact of forcing error characteristics on physically based snow simulations within a global sensitivity analysis framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raleigh, M. S.; Lundquist, J. D.; Clark, M. P.

2015-07-01

Physically based models provide insights into key hydrologic processes but are associated with uncertainties due to deficiencies in forcing data, model parameters, and model structure. Forcing uncertainty is enhanced in snow-affected catchments, where weather stations are scarce and prone to measurement errors, and meteorological variables exhibit high variability. Hence, there is limited understanding of how forcing error characteristics affect simulations of cold region hydrology and which error characteristics are most important. Here we employ global sensitivity analysis to explore how (1) different error types (i.e., bias, random errors), (2) different error probability distributions, and (3) different error magnitudes influence physically based simulations of four snow variables (snow water equivalent, ablation rates, snow disappearance, and sublimation). We use the Sobol' global sensitivity analysis, which is typically used for model parameters but adapted here for testing model sensitivity to coexisting errors in all forcings. We quantify the Utah Energy Balance model's sensitivity to forcing errors with 1 840 000 Monte Carlo simulations across four sites and five different scenarios. Model outputs were (1) consistently more sensitive to forcing biases than random errors, (2) generally less sensitive to forcing error distributions, and (3) critically sensitive to different forcings depending on the relative magnitude of errors. For typical error magnitudes found in areas with drifting snow, precipitation bias was the most important factor for snow water equivalent, ablation rates, and snow disappearance timing, but other forcings had a more dominant impact when precipitation uncertainty was due solely to gauge undercatch. Additionally, the relative importance of forcing errors depended on the model output of interest. Sensitivity analysis can reveal which forcing error characteristics matter most for hydrologic modeling.

Sample Size Determination for Rasch Model Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draxler, Clemens

2010-01-01

This paper is concerned with supplementing statistical tests for the Rasch model so that additionally to the probability of the error of the first kind (Type I probability) the probability of the error of the second kind (Type II probability) can be controlled at a predetermined level by basing the test on the appropriate number of observations.…

78 FR 28597 - State Median Income Estimates for a Four-Person Household: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-15

....gov/acs/www/ or contact the Census Bureau's Social, Economic, and Housing Statistics Division at (301...) Sampling Error, which consists of the error that arises from the use of probability sampling to create the... direction; and (2) Sampling Error, which consists of the error that arises from the use of probability...

The effect of divided attention on novices and experts in laparoscopic task performance.

PubMed

Ghazanfar, Mudassar Ali; Cook, Malcolm; Tang, Benjie; Tait, Iain; Alijani, Afshin

2015-03-01

Attention is important for the skilful execution of surgery. The surgeon's attention during surgery is divided between surgery and outside distractions. The effect of this divided attention has not been well studied previously. We aimed to compare the effect of dividing attention of novices and experts on a laparoscopic task performance. Following ethical approval, 25 novices and 9 expert surgeons performed a standardised peg transfer task in a laboratory setup under three randomly assigned conditions: silent as control condition and two standardised auditory distracting tasks requiring response (easy and difficult) as study conditions. Human reliability assessment was used for surgical task analysis. Primary outcome measures were correct auditory responses, task time, number of surgical errors and instrument movements. Secondary outcome measures included error rate, error probability and hand specific differences. Non-parametric statistics were used for data analysis. 21109 movements and 9036 total errors were analysed. Novices had increased mean task completion time (seconds) (171 ± 44SD vs. 149 ± 34, p < 0.05), number of total movements (227 ± 27 vs. 213 ± 26, p < 0.05) and number of errors (127 ± 51 vs. 96 ± 28, p < 0.05) during difficult study conditions compared to control. The correct responses to auditory stimuli were less frequent in experts (68 %) compared to novices (80 %). There was a positive correlation between error rate and error probability in novices (r (2) = 0.533, p < 0.05) but not in experts (r (2) = 0.346, p > 0.05). Divided attention conditions in theatre environment require careful consideration during surgical training as the junior surgeons are less able to focus their attention during these conditions.

An error analysis perspective for patient alignment systems.

PubMed

Figl, Michael; Kaar, Marcus; Hoffman, Rainer; Kratochwil, Alfred; Hummel, Johann

2013-09-01

This paper analyses the effects of error sources which can be found in patient alignment systems. As an example, an ultrasound (US) repositioning system and its transformation chain are assessed. The findings of this concept can also be applied to any navigation system. In a first step, all error sources were identified and where applicable, corresponding target registration errors were computed. By applying error propagation calculations on these commonly used registration/calibration and tracking errors, we were able to analyse the components of the overall error. Furthermore, we defined a special situation where the whole registration chain reduces to the error caused by the tracking system. Additionally, we used a phantom to evaluate the errors arising from the image-to-image registration procedure, depending on the image metric used. We have also discussed how this analysis can be applied to other positioning systems such as Cone Beam CT-based systems or Brainlab's ExacTrac. The estimates found by our error propagation analysis are in good agreement with the numbers found in the phantom study but significantly smaller than results from patient evaluations. We probably underestimated human influences such as the US scan head positioning by the operator and tissue deformation. Rotational errors of the tracking system can multiply these errors, depending on the relative position of tracker and probe. We were able to analyse the components of the overall error of a typical patient positioning system. We consider this to be a contribution to the optimization of the positioning accuracy for computer guidance systems.

Type I error probabilities based on design-stage strategies with applications to noninferiority trials.

PubMed

Rothmann, Mark

2005-01-01

When testing the equality of means from two different populations, a t-test or large sample normal test tend to be performed. For these tests, when the sample size or design for the second sample is dependent on the results of the first sample, the type I error probability is altered for each specific possibility in the null hypothesis. We will examine the impact on the type I error probabilities for two confidence interval procedures and procedures using test statistics when the design for the second sample or experiment is dependent on the results from the first sample or experiment (or series of experiments). Ways for controlling a desired maximum type I error probability or a desired type I error rate will be discussed. Results are applied to the setting of noninferiority comparisons in active controlled trials where the use of a placebo is unethical.

Inverse sequential detection of parameter changes in developing time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1992-01-01

Progressive values of two probabilities are obtained for parameter estimates derived from an existing set of values and from the same set enlarged by one or more new values, respectively. One probability is that of erroneously preferring the second of these estimates for the existing data ('type 1 error'), while the second probability is that of erroneously accepting their estimates for the enlarged test ('type 2 error'). A more stable combined 'no change' probability which always falls between 0.5 and 0 is derived from the (logarithmic) width of the uncertainty region of an equivalent 'inverted' sequential probability ratio test (SPRT, Wald 1945) in which the error probabilities are calculated rather than prescribed. A parameter change is indicated when the compound probability undergoes a progressive decrease. The test is explicitly formulated and exemplified for Gaussian samples.

Poster error probability in the Mu-11 Sequential Ranging System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coyle, C. W.

1981-01-01

An expression is derived for the posterior error probability in the Mu-2 Sequential Ranging System. An algorithm is developed which closely bounds the exact answer and can be implemented in the machine software. A computer simulation is provided to illustrate the improved level of confidence in a ranging acquisition using this figure of merit as compared to that using only the prior probabilities. In a simulation of 20,000 acquisitions with an experimentally determined threshold setting, the algorithm detected 90% of the actual errors and made false indication of errors on 0.2% of the acquisitions.

Analysis of en route operational errors : probability of resolution and time-on-position.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-02-01

The Federation Administrations Air Traffic Control Organization Safety Management System (SMS) is : designed to prevent the introduction of unacceptable safety risk into the National Airspace System. One of the : most important safety metrics used...

Power and type I error results for a bias-correction approach recently shown to provide accurate odds ratios of genetic variants for the secondary phenotypes associated with primary diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Shete, Sanjay

2011-11-01

We recently proposed a bias correction approach to evaluate accurate estimation of the odds ratio (OR) of genetic variants associated with a secondary phenotype, in which the secondary phenotype is associated with the primary disease, based on the original case-control data collected for the purpose of studying the primary disease. As reported in this communication, we further investigated the type I error probabilities and powers of the proposed approach, and compared the results to those obtained from logistic regression analysis (with or without adjustment for the primary disease status). We performed a simulation study based on a frequency-matching case-control study with respect to the secondary phenotype of interest. We examined the empirical distribution of the natural logarithm of the corrected OR obtained from the bias correction approach and found it to be normally distributed under the null hypothesis. On the basis of the simulation study results, we found that the logistic regression approaches that adjust or do not adjust for the primary disease status had low power for detecting secondary phenotype associated variants and highly inflated type I error probabilities, whereas our approach was more powerful for identifying the SNP-secondary phenotype associations and had better-controlled type I error probabilities. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

A concatenated coding scheme for error control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1985-01-01

A concatenated coding scheme for error contol in data communications was analyzed. The inner code is used for both error correction and detection, however the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if either the inner code decoder fails to make a successful decoding or the outer code decoder detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error of the proposed scheme is derived. An efficient method for computing this probability is presented. Throughout efficiency of the proposed error control scheme incorporated with a selective repeat ARQ retransmission strategy is analyzed.

Errors in the estimation of the variance: implications for multiple-probability fluctuation analysis.

PubMed

Saviane, Chiara; Silver, R Angus

2006-06-15

Synapses play a crucial role in information processing in the brain. Amplitude fluctuations of synaptic responses can be used to extract information about the mechanisms underlying synaptic transmission and its modulation. In particular, multiple-probability fluctuation analysis can be used to estimate the number of functional release sites, the mean probability of release and the amplitude of the mean quantal response from fits of the relationship between the variance and mean amplitude of postsynaptic responses, recorded at different probabilities. To determine these quantal parameters, calculate their uncertainties and the goodness-of-fit of the model, it is important to weight the contribution of each data point in the fitting procedure. We therefore investigated the errors associated with measuring the variance by determining the best estimators of the variance of the variance and have used simulations of synaptic transmission to test their accuracy and reliability under different experimental conditions. For central synapses, which generally have a low number of release sites, the amplitude distribution of synaptic responses is not normal, thus the use of a theoretical variance of the variance based on the normal assumption is not a good approximation. However, appropriate estimators can be derived for the population and for limited sample sizes using a more general expression that involves higher moments and introducing unbiased estimators based on the h-statistics. Our results are likely to be relevant for various applications of fluctuation analysis when few channels or release sites are present.

Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-06-01

p p′ : The probability of some event. ,i ip q : The probability of event . i Π : An aggregation of proportional data used in calculating a test ...statistical tests of the significance of the term and also is conducted in a multivariate framework rather than the ROSA univariate approach. A...residual error is ˆ−e = y y (45) The coefficient provides a ready indicator of the contribution for the associated variable and statistical tests

SU-C-BRD-02: A Team Focused Clinical Implementation and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis of HDR Skin Brachytherapy Using Valencia and Leipzig Surface Applicators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sayler, E; Harrison, A; Eldredge-Hindy, H

Purpose: and Leipzig applicators (VLAs) are single-channel brachytherapy surface applicators used to treat skin lesions up to 2cm diameter. Source dwell times can be calculated and entered manually after clinical set-up or ultrasound. This procedure differs dramatically from CT-based planning; the novelty and unfamiliarity could lead to severe errors. To build layers of safety and ensure quality, a multidisciplinary team created a protocol and applied Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to the clinical procedure for HDR VLA skin treatments. Methods: team including physicists, physicians, nurses, therapists, residents, and administration developed a clinical procedure for VLA treatment. The procedure wasmore » evaluated using FMEA. Failure modes were identified and scored by severity, occurrence, and detection. The clinical procedure was revised to address high-scoring process nodes. Results: Several key components were added to the clinical procedure to minimize risk probability numbers (RPN): -Treatments are reviewed at weekly QA rounds, where physicians discuss diagnosis, prescription, applicator selection, and set-up. Peer review reduces the likelihood of an inappropriate treatment regime. -A template for HDR skin treatments was established in the clinical EMR system to standardize treatment instructions. This reduces the chances of miscommunication between the physician and planning physicist, and increases the detectability of an error during the physics second check. -A screen check was implemented during the second check to increase detectability of an error. -To reduce error probability, the treatment plan worksheet was designed to display plan parameters in a format visually similar to the treatment console display. This facilitates data entry and verification. -VLAs are color-coded and labeled to match the EMR prescriptions, which simplifies in-room selection and verification. Conclusion: Multidisciplinary planning and FMEA increased delectability and reduced error probability during VLA HDR Brachytherapy. This clinical model may be useful to institutions implementing similar procedures.« less

Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

2005-07-01

This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probabilitymore » of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues.« less

Linguistic Pattern Analysis of Misspellings of Typically Developing Writers in Grades 1 to 9

PubMed Central

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Silliman, Elaine R.; Berninger, Virginia W.; Dow, Michael

2012-01-01

Purpose A mixed methods approach, evaluating triple word form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Method Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in grades 1–9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Results Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between grades 4–5. Similar error types were noted across age groups but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Conclusions Triple word-form theory was supported. By grade 1, orthographic errors predominated and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects non-linear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling. PMID:22473834

The effect of timing errors in optical digital systems.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gagliardi, R. M.

1972-01-01

The use of digital transmission with narrow light pulses appears attractive for data communications, but carries with it a stringent requirement on system bit timing. The effects of imperfect timing in direct-detection (noncoherent) optical binary systems are investigated using both pulse-position modulation and on-off keying for bit transmission. Particular emphasis is placed on specification of timing accuracy and an examination of system degradation when this accuracy is not attained. Bit error probabilities are shown as a function of timing errors from which average error probabilities can be computed for specific synchronization methods. Of significance is the presence of a residual or irreducible error probability in both systems, due entirely to the timing system, which cannot be overcome by the data channel.

Performance analysis of dual-hop optical wireless communication systems over k-distribution turbulence channel with pointing error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Neha; Sriram Kumar, D.; Jha, Pranav Kumar

2017-06-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of the dual-hop free space optical (FSO) communication systems under the effect of strong atmospheric turbulence together with misalignment effects (pointing error). We consider a relay assisted link using decode and forward (DF) relaying protocol between source and destination with the assumption that Channel State Information is available at both transmitting and receiving terminals. The atmospheric turbulence channels are modeled by k-distribution with pointing error impairment. The exact closed form expression is derived for outage probability and bit error rate and illustrated through numerical plots. Further BER results are compared for the different modulation schemes.

More on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheung, K.-M.

1987-01-01

The decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes (more generally, linear maximum distance separable codes) is examined. McEliece and Swanson offered an upper bound on P sub E (u), the decoder error probability given that u symbol errors occurs. This upper bound is slightly greater than Q, the probability that a completely random error pattern will cause decoder error. By using a combinatoric technique, the principle of inclusion and exclusion, an exact formula for P sub E (u) is derived. The P sub e (u) for the (255, 223) Reed-Solomon Code used by NASA, and for the (31,15) Reed-Solomon code (JTIDS code), are calculated using the exact formula, and the P sub E (u)'s are observed to approach the Q's of the codes rapidly as u gets larger. An upper bound for the expression is derived, and is shown to decrease nearly exponentially as u increases. This proves analytically that P sub E (u) indeed approaches Q as u becomes large, and some laws of large numbers come into play.

Analysis of binary responses with outcome-specific misclassification probability in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Rekaya, Romdhane; Smith, Shannon; Hay, El Hamidi; Farhat, Nourhene; Aggrey, Samuel E

2016-01-01

Errors in the binary status of some response traits are frequent in human, animal, and plant applications. These error rates tend to differ between cases and controls because diagnostic and screening tests have different sensitivity and specificity. This increases the inaccuracies of classifying individuals into correct groups, giving rise to both false-positive and false-negative cases. The analysis of these noisy binary responses due to misclassification will undoubtedly reduce the statistical power of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). A threshold model that accommodates varying diagnostic errors between cases and controls was investigated. A simulation study was carried out where several binary data sets (case-control) were generated with varying effects for the most influential single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and different diagnostic error rate for cases and controls. Each simulated data set consisted of 2000 individuals. Ignoring misclassification resulted in biased estimates of true influential SNP effects and inflated estimates for true noninfluential markers. A substantial reduction in bias and increase in accuracy ranging from 12% to 32% was observed when the misclassification procedure was invoked. In fact, the majority of influential SNPs that were not identified using the noisy data were captured using the proposed method. Additionally, truly misclassified binary records were identified with high probability using the proposed method. The superiority of the proposed method was maintained across different simulation parameters (misclassification rates and odds ratios) attesting to its robustness.

System statistical reliability model and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lekach, V. S.; Rood, H.

1973-01-01

A digital computer code was developed to simulate the time-dependent behavior of the 5-kwe reactor thermoelectric system. The code was used to determine lifetime sensitivity coefficients for a number of system design parameters, such as thermoelectric module efficiency and degradation rate, radiator absorptivity and emissivity, fuel element barrier defect constant, beginning-of-life reactivity, etc. A probability distribution (mean and standard deviation) was estimated for each of these design parameters. Then, error analysis was used to obtain a probability distribution for the system lifetime (mean = 7.7 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). From this, the probability that the system will achieve the design goal of 5 years lifetime is 0.993. This value represents an estimate of the degradation reliability of the system.

Neural dynamics of reward probability coding: a Magnetoencephalographic study in humans

PubMed Central

Thomas, Julie; Vanni-Mercier, Giovanna; Dreher, Jean-Claude

2013-01-01

Prediction of future rewards and discrepancy between actual and expected outcomes (prediction error) are crucial signals for adaptive behavior. In humans, a number of fMRI studies demonstrated that reward probability modulates these two signals in a large brain network. Yet, the spatio-temporal dynamics underlying the neural coding of reward probability remains unknown. Here, using magnetoencephalography, we investigated the neural dynamics of prediction and reward prediction error computations while subjects learned to associate cues of slot machines with monetary rewards with different probabilities. We showed that event-related magnetic fields (ERFs) arising from the visual cortex coded the expected reward value 155 ms after the cue, demonstrating that reward value signals emerge early in the visual stream. Moreover, a prediction error was reflected in ERF peaking 300 ms after the rewarded outcome and showing decreasing amplitude with higher reward probability. This prediction error signal was generated in a network including the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex. These findings pinpoint the spatio-temporal characteristics underlying reward probability coding. Together, our results provide insights into the neural dynamics underlying the ability to learn probabilistic stimuli-reward contingencies. PMID:24302894

Bit Error Probability for Maximum Likelihood Decoding of Linear Block Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc P. C.; Rhee, Dojun

1996-01-01

In this paper, the bit error probability P(sub b) for maximum likelihood decoding of binary linear codes is investigated. The contribution of each information bit to P(sub b) is considered. For randomly generated codes, it is shown that the conventional approximation at high SNR P(sub b) is approximately equal to (d(sub H)/N)P(sub s), where P(sub s) represents the block error probability, holds for systematic encoding only. Also systematic encoding provides the minimum P(sub b) when the inverse mapping corresponding to the generator matrix of the code is used to retrieve the information sequence. The bit error performances corresponding to other generator matrix forms are also evaluated. Although derived for codes with a generator matrix randomly generated, these results are shown to provide good approximations for codes used in practice. Finally, for decoding methods which require a generator matrix with a particular structure such as trellis decoding or algebraic-based soft decision decoding, equivalent schemes that reduce the bit error probability are discussed.

U.S. Maternally Linked Birth Records May Be Biased for Hispanics and Other Population Groups

PubMed Central

LEISS, JACK K.; GILES, DENISE; SULLIVAN, KRISTIN M.; MATHEWS, RAHEL; SENTELLE, GLENDA; TOMASHEK, KAY M.

2010-01-01

Purpose To advance understanding of linkage error in U.S. maternally linked datasets, and how the error may affect results of studies based on the linked data. Methods North Carolina birth and fetal death records for 1988-1997 were maternally linked (n=1,030,029). The maternal set probability, defined as the probability that all records assigned to the same maternal set do in fact represent events to the same woman, was used to assess differential maternal linkage error across race/ethnic groups. Results Maternal set probabilities were lower for records specifying Asian or Hispanic race/ethnicity, suggesting greater maternal linkage error. The lower probabilities for Hispanics were concentrated in women of Mexican origin who were not born in the United States. Conclusions Differential maternal linkage error may be a source of bias in studies using U.S. maternally linked datasets to make comparisons between Hispanics and other groups or among Hispanic subgroups. Methods to quantify and adjust for this potential bias are needed. PMID:20006273

On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannesson, R.

1973-01-01

An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.

Development and application of an empirical probability distribution for the prediction error of re-entry body maximum dynamic pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lanzi, R. James; Vincent, Brett T.

1993-01-01

The relationship between actual and predicted re-entry maximum dynamic pressure is characterized using a probability density function and a cumulative distribution function derived from sounding rocket flight data. This paper explores the properties of this distribution and demonstrates applications of this data with observed sounding rocket re-entry body damage characteristics to assess probabilities of sustaining various levels of heating damage. The results from this paper effectively bridge the gap existing in sounding rocket reentry analysis between the known damage level/flight environment relationships and the predicted flight environment.

Error Patterns in Ordering Fractions among At-Risk Fourth-Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malone, Amelia Schneider; Fuchs, Lynn S.

2015-01-01

The 3 purposes of this study were to: (a) describe fraction ordering errors among at-risk 4th-grade students; (b) assess the effect of part-whole understanding and accuracy of fraction magnitude estimation on the probability of committing errors; and (c) examine the effect of students' ability to explain comparing problems on the probability of…

Use of attribute association error probability estimates to evaluate quality of medical record geocodes.

PubMed

Klaus, Christian A; Carrasco, Luis E; Goldberg, Daniel W; Henry, Kevin A; Sherman, Recinda L

2015-09-15

The utility of patient attributes associated with the spatiotemporal analysis of medical records lies not just in their values but also the strength of association between them. Estimating the extent to which a hierarchy of conditional probability exists between patient attribute associations such as patient identifying fields, patient and date of diagnosis, and patient and address at diagnosis is fundamental to estimating the strength of association between patient and geocode, and patient and enumeration area. We propose a hierarchy for the attribute associations within medical records that enable spatiotemporal relationships. We also present a set of metrics that store attribute association error probability (AAEP), to estimate error probability for all attribute associations upon which certainty in a patient geocode depends. A series of experiments were undertaken to understand how error estimation could be operationalized within health data and what levels of AAEP in real data reveal themselves using these methods. Specifically, the goals of this evaluation were to (1) assess if the concept of our error assessment techniques could be implemented by a population-based cancer registry; (2) apply the techniques to real data from a large health data agency and characterize the observed levels of AAEP; and (3) demonstrate how detected AAEP might impact spatiotemporal health research. We present an evaluation of AAEP metrics generated for cancer cases in a North Carolina county. We show examples of how we estimated AAEP for selected attribute associations and circumstances. We demonstrate the distribution of AAEP in our case sample across attribute associations, and demonstrate ways in which disease registry specific operations influence the prevalence of AAEP estimates for specific attribute associations. The effort to detect and store estimates of AAEP is worthwhile because of the increase in confidence fostered by the attribute association level approach to the assessment of uncertainty in patient geocodes, relative to existing geocoding related uncertainty metrics.

VHF command system study. [spectral analysis of GSFC VHF-PSK and VHF-FSK Command Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gee, T. H.; Geist, J. M.

1973-01-01

Solutions are provided to specific problems arising in the GSFC VHF-PSK and VHF-FSK Command Systems in support of establishment and maintenance of Data Systems Standards. Signal structures which incorporate transmission on the uplink of a clock along with the PSK or FSK data are considered. Strategies are developed for allocating power between the clock and data, and spectral analyses are performed. Bit error probability and other probabilities pertinent to correct transmission of command messages are calculated. Biphase PCM/PM and PCM/FM are considered as candidate modulation techniques on the telemetry downlink, with application to command verification. Comparative performance of PCM/PM and PSK systems is given special attention, including implementation considerations. Gain in bit error performance due to coding is also considered.

Performance Analysis of HF Band FB-MC-SS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hussein Moradi; Stephen Andrew Laraway; Behrouz Farhang-Boroujeny

Abstract—In a recent paper [1] the filter bank multicarrier spread spectrum (FB-MC-SS) waveform was proposed for wideband spread spectrum HF communications. A significant benefit of this waveform is robustness against narrow and partial band interference. Simulation results in [1] demonstrated good performance in a wideband HF channel over a wide range of conditions. In this paper we present a theoretical analysis of the bit error probably for this system. Our analysis tailors the results from [2] where BER performance was analyzed for maximum ration combining systems that accounted for correlation between subcarriers and channel estimation error. Equations are give formore » BER that closely match the simulated performance in most situations.« less

A theoretical basis for the analysis of redundant software subject to coincident errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckhardt, D. E., Jr.; Lee, L. D.

1985-01-01

Fundamental to the development of redundant software techniques fault-tolerant software, is an understanding of the impact of multiple-joint occurrences of coincident errors. A theoretical basis for the study of redundant software is developed which provides a probabilistic framework for empirically evaluating the effectiveness of the general (N-Version) strategy when component versions are subject to coincident errors, and permits an analytical study of the effects of these errors. The basic assumptions of the model are: (1) independently designed software components are chosen in a random sample; and (2) in the user environment, the system is required to execute on a stationary input series. The intensity of coincident errors, has a central role in the model. This function describes the propensity to introduce design faults in such a way that software components fail together when executing in the user environment. The model is used to give conditions under which an N-Version system is a better strategy for reducing system failure probability than relying on a single version of software. A condition which limits the effectiveness of a fault-tolerant strategy is studied, and it is posted whether system failure probability varies monotonically with increasing N or whether an optimal choice of N exists.

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Lightning Stroke Contacted the Surface Within Any Radius of Any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William; Merceret, Francis J.

2010-01-01

A technique has been developed to calculate the probability that any nearby lightning stroke is within any radius of any point of interest. In practice, this provides the probability that a nearby lightning stroke was within a key distance of a facility, rather than the error ellipses centered on the stroke. This process takes the current bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to get the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius. This new facility-centric technique will be much more useful to the space launch customers and may supersede the lightning error ellipse approach discussed in [5], [6].

Multifractal diffusion entropy analysis: Optimal bin width of probability histograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jizba, Petr; Korbel, Jan

2014-11-01

In the framework of Multifractal Diffusion Entropy Analysis we propose a method for choosing an optimal bin-width in histograms generated from underlying probability distributions of interest. The method presented uses techniques of Rényi’s entropy and the mean squared error analysis to discuss the conditions under which the error in the multifractal spectrum estimation is minimal. We illustrate the utility of our approach by focusing on a scaling behavior of financial time series. In particular, we analyze the S&P500 stock index as sampled at a daily rate in the time period 1950-2013. In order to demonstrate a strength of the method proposed we compare the multifractal δ-spectrum for various bin-widths and show the robustness of the method, especially for large values of q. For such values, other methods in use, e.g., those based on moment estimation, tend to fail for heavy-tailed data or data with long correlations. Connection between the δ-spectrum and Rényi’s q parameter is also discussed and elucidated on a simple example of multiscale time series.

Synthesis and analysis of discriminators under influence of broadband non-Gaussian noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artyushenko, V. M.; Volovach, V. I.

2018-01-01

We considered the problems of the synthesis and analysis of discriminators, when the useful signal is exposed to non-Gaussian additive broadband noise. It is shown that in this case, the discriminator of the tracking meter should contain the nonlinear transformation unit, the characteristics of which are determined by the Fisher information relative to the probability density function of the mixture of non-Gaussian broadband noise and mismatch errors. The parameters of the discriminatory and phase characteristics of the discriminators working under the above conditions are obtained. It is shown that the efficiency of non-linear processing depends on the ratio of power of FM noise to the power of Gaussian noise. The analysis of the information loss of signal transformation caused by the linear section of discriminatory characteristics of the unit of nonlinear transformations of the discriminator is carried out. It is shown that the average slope of the nonlinear transformation characteristic is determined by the Fisher information relative to the probability density function of the mixture of non-Gaussian noise and mismatch errors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herberger, Sarah M.; Boring, Ronald L.

Abstract Objectives: This paper discusses the differences between classical human reliability analysis (HRA) dependence and the full spectrum of probabilistic dependence. Positive influence suggests an error increases the likelihood of subsequent errors or success increases the likelihood of subsequent success. Currently the typical method for dependence in HRA implements the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) positive dependence equations. This assumes that the dependence between two human failure events varies at discrete levels between zero and complete dependence (as defined by THERP). Dependence in THERP does not consistently span dependence values between 0 and 1. In contrast, probabilistic dependencemore » employs Bayes Law, and addresses a continuous range of dependence. Methods: Using the laws of probability, complete dependence and maximum positive dependence do not always agree. Maximum dependence is when two events overlap to their fullest amount. Maximum negative dependence is the smallest amount that two events can overlap. When the minimum probability of two events overlapping is less than independence, negative dependence occurs. For example, negative dependence is when an operator fails to actuate Pump A, thereby increasing his or her chance of actuating Pump B. The initial error actually increases the chance of subsequent success. Results: Comparing THERP and probability theory yields different results in certain scenarios; with the latter addressing negative dependence. Given that most human failure events are rare, the minimum overlap is typically 0. And when the second event is smaller than the first event the max dependence is less than 1, as defined by Bayes Law. As such alternative dependence equations are provided along with a look-up table defining the maximum and maximum negative dependence given the probability of two events. Conclusions: THERP dependence has been used ubiquitously for decades, and has provided approximations of the dependencies between two events. Since its inception, computational abilities have increased exponentially, and alternative approaches that follow the laws of probability dependence need to be implemented. These new approaches need to consider negative dependence and identify when THERP output is not appropriate.« less

Entanglement-enhanced Neyman-Pearson target detection using quantum illumination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) provides entanglement-based target detection---in an entanglement-breaking environment---whose performance is significantly better than that of optimum classical-illumination target detection. QI's performance advantage was established in a Bayesian setting with the target presumed equally likely to be absent or present and error probability employed as the performance metric. Radar theory, however, eschews that Bayesian approach, preferring the Neyman-Pearson performance criterion to avoid the difficulties of accurately assigning prior probabilities to target absence and presence and appropriate costs to false-alarm and miss errors. We have recently reported an architecture---based on sum-frequency generation (SFG) and feedforward (FF) processing---for minimum error-probability QI target detection with arbitrary prior probabilities for target absence and presence. In this paper, we use our results for FF-SFG reception to determine the receiver operating characteristic---detection probability versus false-alarm probability---for optimum QI target detection under the Neyman-Pearson criterion.

FRamework Assessing Notorious Contributing Influences for Error (FRANCIE): Perspective on Taxonomy Development to Support Error Reporting and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lon N. Haney; David I. Gertman

2003-04-01

Beginning in the 1980s a primary focus of human reliability analysis was estimation of human error probabilities. However, detailed qualitative modeling with comprehensive representation of contextual variables often was lacking. This was likely due to the lack of comprehensive error and performance shaping factor taxonomies, and the limited data available on observed error rates and their relationship to specific contextual variables. In the mid 90s Boeing, America West Airlines, NASA Ames Research Center and INEEL partnered in a NASA sponsored Advanced Concepts grant to: assess the state of the art in human error analysis, identify future needs for human errormore » analysis, and develop an approach addressing these needs. Identified needs included the need for a method to identify and prioritize task and contextual characteristics affecting human reliability. Other needs identified included developing comprehensive taxonomies to support detailed qualitative modeling and to structure meaningful data collection efforts across domains. A result was the development of the FRamework Assessing Notorious Contributing Influences for Error (FRANCIE) with a taxonomy for airline maintenance tasks. The assignment of performance shaping factors to generic errors by experts proved to be valuable to qualitative modeling. Performance shaping factors and error types from such detailed approaches can be used to structure error reporting schemes. In a recent NASA Advanced Human Support Technology grant FRANCIE was refined, and two new taxonomies for use on space missions were developed. The development, sharing, and use of error taxonomies, and the refinement of approaches for increased fidelity of qualitative modeling is offered as a means to help direct useful data collection strategies.« less

The random coding bound is tight for the average code.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallager, R. G.

1973-01-01

The random coding bound of information theory provides a well-known upper bound to the probability of decoding error for the best code of a given rate and block length. The bound is constructed by upperbounding the average error probability over an ensemble of codes. The bound is known to give the correct exponential dependence of error probability on block length for transmission rates above the critical rate, but it gives an incorrect exponential dependence at rates below a second lower critical rate. Here we derive an asymptotic expression for the average error probability over the ensemble of codes used in the random coding bound. The result shows that the weakness of the random coding bound at rates below the second critical rate is due not to upperbounding the ensemble average, but rather to the fact that the best codes are much better than the average at low rates.

Landsat D Thematic Mapper image dimensionality reduction and geometric correction accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ford, G. E.

1986-01-01

To characterize and quantify the performance of the Landsat thematic mapper (TM), techniques for dimensionality reduction by linear transformation have been studied and evaluated and the accuracy of the correction of geometric errors in TM images analyzed. Theoretical evaluations and comparisons for existing methods for the design of linear transformation for dimensionality reduction are presented. These methods include the discrete Karhunen Loeve (KL) expansion, Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Thematic Mapper (TM)-Tasseled Cap Linear Transformation and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). A unified approach to these design problems is presented in which each method involves optimizing an objective function with respect to the linear transformation matrix. From these studies, four modified methods are proposed. They are referred to as the Space Variant Linear Transformation, the KL Transform-MDA hybrid method, and the First and Second Version of the Weighted MDA method. The modifications involve the assignment of weights to classes to achieve improvements in the class conditional probability of error for classes with high weights. Experimental evaluations of the existing and proposed methods have been performed using the six reflective bands of the TM data. It is shown that in terms of probability of classification error and the percentage of the cumulative eigenvalues, the six reflective bands of the TM data require only a three dimensional feature space. It is shown experimentally as well that for the proposed methods, the classes with high weights have improvements in class conditional probability of error estimates as expected.

75 FR 26780 - State Median Income Estimate for a Four-Person Family: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-12

... Household Economic Statistics Division at (301) 763-3243. Under the advice of the Census Bureau, HHS..., which consists of the error that arises from the use of probability sampling to create the sample. For...) Sampling Error, which consists of the error that arises from the use of probability sampling to create the...

Upper bounds on the error probabilities and asymptotic error exponents in quantum multiple state discrimination

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Audenaert, Koenraad M. R., E-mail: koenraad.audenaert@rhul.ac.uk; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Ghent, S9, Krijgslaan 281, B-9000 Ghent; Mosonyi, Milán, E-mail: milan.mosonyi@gmail.com

2014-10-01

We consider the multiple hypothesis testing problem for symmetric quantum state discrimination between r given states σ₁, …, σ{sub r}. By splitting up the overall test into multiple binary tests in various ways we obtain a number of upper bounds on the optimal error probability in terms of the binary error probabilities. These upper bounds allow us to deduce various bounds on the asymptotic error rate, for which it has been hypothesized that it is given by the multi-hypothesis quantum Chernoff bound (or Chernoff divergence) C(σ₁, …, σ{sub r}), as recently introduced by Nussbaum and Szkoła in analogy with Salikhov'smore » classical multi-hypothesis Chernoff bound. This quantity is defined as the minimum of the pairwise binary Chernoff divergences min{sub j« less

Reducing number entry errors: solving a widespread, serious problem.

PubMed

Thimbleby, Harold; Cairns, Paul

2010-10-06

Number entry is ubiquitous: it is required in many fields including science, healthcare, education, government, mathematics and finance. People entering numbers are to be expected to make errors, but shockingly few systems make any effort to detect, block or otherwise manage errors. Worse, errors may be ignored but processed in arbitrary ways, with unintended results. A standard class of error (defined in the paper) is an 'out by 10 error', which is easily made by miskeying a decimal point or a zero. In safety-critical domains, such as drug delivery, out by 10 errors generally have adverse consequences. Here, we expose the extent of the problem of numeric errors in a very wide range of systems. An analysis of better error management is presented: under reasonable assumptions, we show that the probability of out by 10 errors can be halved by better user interface design. We provide a demonstration user interface to show that the approach is practical.To kill an error is as good a service as, and sometimes even better than, the establishing of a new truth or fact. (Charles Darwin 1879 [2008], p. 229).

Interference Analysis for Highly Directional 60 GHz Mesh Networks: The Case for Rethinking Medium Access Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-24

Helmken, “Performance analysis of coherent DS - CDMA systems in a Nakagami fading channel with arbitrary parameters,” Vehicular Technology, IEEE...Transactions on, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 289–297, may 1997. [26] M. Sunay and P. McLane, “Calculating error probabilities for DS - CDMA systems: when not to use

A concatenated coding scheme for error control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasami, T.; Fujiwara, T.; Lin, S.

1986-01-01

In this paper, a concatenated coding scheme for error control in data communications is presented and analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code is used for both error correction and detection; however, the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if either the inner code decoder fails to make a successful decoding or the outer code decoder detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error (or decoding error) of the proposed scheme is derived. An efficient method for computing this probability is presented. Throughput efficiency of the proposed error control scheme incorporated with a selective-repeat ARQ retransmission strategy is also analyzed. Three specific examples are presented. One of the examples is proposed for error control in the NASA Telecommand System.

Probability of Detection of Genotyping Errors and Mutations as Inheritance Inconsistencies in Nuclear-Family Data

PubMed Central

Douglas, Julie A.; Skol, Andrew D.; Boehnke, Michael

2002-01-01

Gene-mapping studies routinely rely on checking for Mendelian transmission of marker alleles in a pedigree, as a means of screening for genotyping errors and mutations, with the implicit assumption that, if a pedigree is consistent with Mendel’s laws of inheritance, then there are no genotyping errors. However, the occurrence of inheritance inconsistencies alone is an inadequate measure of the number of genotyping errors, since the rate of occurrence depends on the number and relationships of genotyped pedigree members, the type of errors, and the distribution of marker-allele frequencies. In this article, we calculate the expected probability of detection of a genotyping error or mutation as an inheritance inconsistency in nuclear-family data, as a function of both the number of genotyped parents and offspring and the marker-allele frequency distribution. Through computer simulation, we explore the sensitivity of our analytic calculations to the underlying error model. Under a random-allele–error model, we find that detection rates are 51%–77% for multiallelic markers and 13%–75% for biallelic markers; detection rates are generally lower when the error occurs in a parent than in an offspring, unless a large number of offspring are genotyped. Errors are especially difficult to detect for biallelic markers with equally frequent alleles, even when both parents are genotyped; in this case, the maximum detection rate is 34% for four-person nuclear families. Error detection in families in which parents are not genotyped is limited, even with multiallelic markers. Given these results, we recommend that additional error checking (e.g., on the basis of multipoint analysis) be performed, beyond routine checking for Mendelian consistency. Furthermore, our results permit assessment of the plausibility of an observed number of inheritance inconsistencies for a family, allowing the detection of likely pedigree—rather than genotyping—errors in the early stages of a genome scan. Such early assessments are valuable in either the targeting of families for resampling or discontinued genotyping. PMID:11791214

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in chemical analysis--a case study of ICP-MS.

PubMed

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; Epstein, Malka; Fajgelj, Ales; Ellison, Stephen L R

2014-12-01

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in a chemical analysis was used for determination of distributions of the error quantification scores (scores of likelihood and severity, and scores of effectiveness of a laboratory quality system in prevention of the errors). The simulation was based on modeling of an expert behavior: confident, reasonably doubting and irresolute expert judgments were taken into account by means of different probability mass functions (pmfs). As a case study, 36 scenarios of human errors which may occur in elemental analysis of geological samples by ICP-MS were examined. Characteristics of the score distributions for three pmfs of an expert behavior were compared. Variability of the scores, as standard deviation of the simulated score values from the distribution mean, was used for assessment of the score robustness. A range of the score values, calculated directly from elicited data and simulated by a Monte Carlo method for different pmfs, was also discussed from the robustness point of view. It was shown that robustness of the scores, obtained in the case study, can be assessed as satisfactory for the quality risk management and improvement of a laboratory quality system against human errors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mixtures of Berkson and classical covariate measurement error in the linear mixed model: Bias analysis and application to a study on ultrafine particles.

PubMed

Deffner, Veronika; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Breitner, Susanne; Schneider, Alexandra; Cyrys, Josef; Peters, Annette

2018-05-01

The ultrafine particle measurements in the Augsburger Umweltstudie, a panel study conducted in Augsburg, Germany, exhibit measurement error from various sources. Measurements of mobile devices show classical possibly individual-specific measurement error; Berkson-type error, which may also vary individually, occurs, if measurements of fixed monitoring stations are used. The combination of fixed site and individual exposure measurements results in a mixture of the two error types. We extended existing bias analysis approaches to linear mixed models with a complex error structure including individual-specific error components, autocorrelated errors, and a mixture of classical and Berkson error. Theoretical considerations and simulation results show, that autocorrelation may severely change the attenuation of the effect estimations. Furthermore, unbalanced designs and the inclusion of confounding variables influence the degree of attenuation. Bias correction with the method of moments using data with mixture measurement error partially yielded better results compared to the usage of incomplete data with classical error. Confidence intervals (CIs) based on the delta method achieved better coverage probabilities than those based on Bootstrap samples. Moreover, we present the application of these new methods to heart rate measurements within the Augsburger Umweltstudie: the corrected effect estimates were slightly higher than their naive equivalents. The substantial measurement error of ultrafine particle measurements has little impact on the results. The developed methodology is generally applicable to longitudinal data with measurement error. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burgman, M.A.; Wintle, B.A.; Thompson, C.A.; Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Ben-Haim, Y.

2010-01-01

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered. ?? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.

Grid Resolution Study over Operability Space for a Mach 1.7 Low Boom External Compression Inlet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Bernhard H.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a statistical methodology whereby the probability limits associated with CFD grid resolution of inlet flow analysis can be determined which provide quantitative information on the distribution of that error over the specified operability range. The objectives of this investigation is to quantify the effects of both random (accuracy) and systemic (biasing) errors associated with grid resolution in the analysis of the Lockheed Martin Company (LMCO) N+2 Low Boom external compression supersonic inlet. The study covers the entire operability space as defined previously by the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) High Speed Research (HSR) program goals. The probability limits in terms of a 95.0% confidence interval on the analysis data were evaluated for four ARP1420 inlet metrics, namely (1) total pressure recovery (PFAIP), (2) radial hub distortion (DPH/P), (3) ) radial tip distortion (DPT/P), and (4) ) circumferential distortion (DPC/P). In general, the resulting +/-0.95 delta Y interval was unacceptably large in comparison to the stated goals of the HSCT program. Therefore, the conclusion was reached that the "standard grid" size was insufficient for this type of analysis. However, in examining the statistical data, it was determined that the CFD analysis results at the outer fringes of the operability space were the determining factor in the measure of statistical uncertainty. Adequate grids are grids that are free of biasing (systemic) errors and exhibit low random (precision) errors in comparison to their operability goals. In order to be 100% certain that the operability goals have indeed been achieved for each of the inlet metrics, the Y+/-0.95 delta Y limit must fall inside the stated operability goals. For example, if the operability goal for DPC/P circumferential distortion is =0.06, then the forecast Y for DPC/P plus the 95% confidence interval on DPC/P, i.e. +/-0.95 delta Y, must all be less than or equal to 0.06.

Analysis of error type and frequency in apraxia of speech among Portuguese speakers.

PubMed

Cera, Maysa Luchesi; Minett, Thaís Soares Cianciarullo; Ortiz, Karin Zazo

2010-01-01

Most studies characterizing errors in the speech of patients with apraxia involve English language. To analyze the types and frequency of errors produced by patients with apraxia of speech whose mother tongue was Brazilian Portuguese. 20 adults with apraxia of speech caused by stroke were assessed. The types of error committed by patients were analyzed both quantitatively and qualitatively, and frequencies compared. We observed the presence of substitution, omission, trial-and-error, repetition, self-correction, anticipation, addition, reiteration and metathesis, in descending order of frequency, respectively. Omission type errors were one of the most commonly occurring whereas addition errors were infrequent. These findings differed to those reported in English speaking patients, probably owing to differences in the methodologies used for classifying error types; the inclusion of speakers with apraxia secondary to aphasia; and the difference in the structure of Portuguese language to English in terms of syllable onset complexity and effect on motor control. The frequency of omission and addition errors observed differed to the frequency reported for speakers of English.

Outage probability of a relay strategy allowing intra-link errors utilizing Slepian-Wolf theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Meng; Anwar, Khoirul; Matsumoto, Tad

2013-12-01

In conventional decode-and-forward (DF) one-way relay systems, a data block received at the relay node is discarded, if the information part is found to have errors after decoding. Such errors are referred to as intra-link errors in this article. However, in a setup where the relay forwards data blocks despite possible intra-link errors, the two data blocks, one from the source node and the other from the relay node, are highly correlated because they were transmitted from the same source. In this article, we focus on the outage probability analysis of such a relay transmission system, where source-destination and relay-destination links, Link 1 and Link 2, respectively, are assumed to suffer from the correlated fading variation due to block Rayleigh fading. The intra-link is assumed to be represented by a simple bit-flipping model, where some of the information bits recovered at the relay node are the flipped version of their corresponding original information bits at the source. The correlated bit streams are encoded separately by the source and relay nodes, and transmitted block-by-block to a common destination using different time slots, where the information sequence transmitted over Link 2 may be a noise-corrupted interleaved version of the original sequence. The joint decoding takes place at the destination by exploiting the correlation knowledge of the intra-link (source-relay link). It is shown that the outage probability of the proposed transmission technique can be expressed by a set of double integrals over the admissible rate range, given by the Slepian-Wolf theorem, with respect to the probability density function ( pdf) of the instantaneous signal-to-noise power ratios (SNR) of Link 1 and Link 2. It is found that, with the Slepian-Wolf relay technique, so far as the correlation ρ of the complex fading variation is | ρ|<1, the 2nd order diversity can be achieved only if the two bit streams are fully correlated. This indicates that the diversity order exhibited in the outage curve converges to 1 when the bit streams are not fully correlated. Moreover, the Slepian-Wolf outage probability is proved to be smaller than that of the 2nd order maximum ratio combining (MRC) diversity, if the average SNRs of the two independent links are the same. Exact as well as asymptotic expressions of the outage probability are theoretically derived in the article. In addition, the theoretical outage results are compared with the frame-error-rate (FER) curves, obtained by a series of simulations for the Slepian-Wolf relay system based on bit-interleaved coded modulation with iterative detection (BICM-ID). It is shown that the FER curves exhibit the same tendency as the theoretical results.

An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

2017-10-01

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Performance of cellular frequency-hopped spread-spectrum radio networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gluck, Jeffrey W.; Geraniotis, Evaggelos

1989-10-01

Multiple access interference is characterized for cellular mobile networks, in which users are assumed to be Poisson-distributed in the plane and employ frequency-hopped spread-spectrum signaling with transmitter-oriented assignment of frequency-hopping patterns. Exact expressions for the bit error probabilities are derived for binary coherently demodulated systems without coding. Approximations for the packet error probability are derived for coherent and noncoherent systems and these approximations are applied when forward-error-control coding is employed. In all cases, the effects of varying interference power are accurately taken into account according to some propagation law. Numerical results are given in terms of bit error probability for the exact case and throughput for the approximate analyses. Comparisons are made with previously derived bounds and it is shown that these tend to be very pessimistic.

Comparison of rate one-half, equivalent constraint length 24, binary convolutional codes for use with sequential decoding on the deep-space channel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massey, J. L.

1976-01-01

Virtually all previously-suggested rate 1/2 binary convolutional codes with KE = 24 are compared. Their distance properties are given; and their performance, both in computation and in error probability, with sequential decoding on the deep-space channel is determined by simulation. Recommendations are made both for the choice of a specific KE = 24 code as well as for codes to be included in future coding standards for the deep-space channel. A new result given in this report is a method for determining the statistical significance of error probability data when the error probability is so small that it is not feasible to perform enough decoding simulations to obtain more than a very small number of decoding errors.

Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalet, Alan M.; Gennari, John H.; Ford, Eric C.; Phillips, Mark H.

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wijesooriya, K; Seitter, K; Desai, V

Purpose: To present our single institution experience on catching errors with trajectory log file analysis. The reported causes of failures, probability of occurrences (O), severity of effects (S), and the probability of the failures to be undetected (D) could be added to guidelines of FMEA analysis. Methods: From March 2013 to March 2014, 19569 patient treatment fields/arcs were analyzed. This work includes checking all 131 treatment delivery parameters for all patients, all treatment sites and all treatment delivery fractions. TrueBeam trajectory log files for all treatment field types as well as all imaging types were accessed, read in every 20ms,more » and every control point (total of 37 million parameters) compared to the physician approved plan in the planning system. Results: Couch angle outlier occurrence: N= 327, range = −1.7 −1.2 deg; gantry angle outlier occurrence: N =59, range = 0.09 – 5.61 deg, collimator angle outlier occurrence: N = 13, range = −0.2 – 0.2 deg. VMAT cases have slightly larger variations in mechanical parameters. MLC: 3D single control point fields have a maximum deviation of 0.04 mm, 39 step and shoot IMRT cases have MLC −0.3 – 0.5 mm deviations, all (1286) VMAT cases have −0.9 – 0.7 mm deviations. Two possible serious errors were found: 1) A 4 cm isocenter shift for the PA beam of an AP-PA pair, under-dosing a portion of PTV by 25%. 2) Delivery with MLC leaves abutted behind the jaws as opposed to the midline as planned, leading to a under-dosing of a small volume of the PTV by 25%, by just the boost plan. Due to their error origin, neither of these errors could have been detected by pre-treatment verification. Conclusion: Performing Trajectory Log file analysis could catch typically undetected errors to avoid potentially adverse incidents.« less

Field evaluation of distance-estimation error during wetland-dependent bird surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Conway, Courtney J.

2012-01-01

Context: The most common methods to estimate detection probability during avian point-count surveys involve recording a distance between the survey point and individual birds detected during the survey period. Accurately measuring or estimating distance is an important assumption of these methods; however, this assumption is rarely tested in the context of aural avian point-count surveys. Aims: We expand on recent bird-simulation studies to document the error associated with estimating distance to calling birds in a wetland ecosystem. Methods: We used two approaches to estimate the error associated with five surveyor's distance estimates between the survey point and calling birds, and to determine the factors that affect a surveyor's ability to estimate distance. Key results: We observed biased and imprecise distance estimates when estimating distance to simulated birds in a point-count scenario (x̄error = -9 m, s.d.error = 47 m) and when estimating distances to real birds during field trials (x̄error = 39 m, s.d.error = 79 m). The amount of bias and precision in distance estimates differed among surveyors; surveyors with more training and experience were less biased and more precise when estimating distance to both real and simulated birds. Three environmental factors were important in explaining the error associated with distance estimates, including the measured distance from the bird to the surveyor, the volume of the call and the species of bird. Surveyors tended to make large overestimations to birds close to the survey point, which is an especially serious error in distance sampling. Conclusions: Our results suggest that distance-estimation error is prevalent, but surveyor training may be the easiest way to reduce distance-estimation error. Implications: The present study has demonstrated how relatively simple field trials can be used to estimate the error associated with distance estimates used to estimate detection probability during avian point-count surveys. Evaluating distance-estimation errors will allow investigators to better evaluate the accuracy of avian density and trend estimates. Moreover, investigators who evaluate distance-estimation errors could employ recently developed models to incorporate distance-estimation error into analyses. We encourage further development of such models, including the inclusion of such models into distance-analysis software.

A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods

DOE PAGES

Groth, Katrina M.; Smith, Curtis L.; Swiler, Laura P.

2014-04-05

In the past several years, several international agencies have begun to collect data on human performance in nuclear power plant simulators [1]. This data provides a valuable opportunity to improve human reliability analysis (HRA), but there improvements will not be realized without implementation of Bayesian methods. Bayesian methods are widely used in to incorporate sparse data into models in many parts of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but Bayesian methods have not been adopted by the HRA community. In this article, we provide a Bayesian methodology to formally use simulator data to refine the human error probabilities (HEPs) assigned by existingmore » HRA methods. We demonstrate the methodology with a case study, wherein we use simulator data from the Halden Reactor Project to update the probability assignments from the SPAR-H method. The case study demonstrates the ability to use performance data, even sparse data, to improve existing HRA methods. Furthermore, this paper also serves as a demonstration of the value of Bayesian methods to improve the technical basis of HRA.« less

Free space optical ultra-wideband communications over atmospheric turbulence channels.

PubMed

Davaslioğlu, Kemal; Cağiral, Erman; Koca, Mutlu

2010-08-02

A hybrid impulse radio ultra-wideband (IR-UWB) communication system in which UWB pulses are transmitted over long distances through free space optical (FSO) links is proposed. FSO channels are characterized by random fluctuations in the received light intensity mainly due to the atmospheric turbulence. For this reason, theoretical detection error probability analysis is presented for the proposed system for a time-hopping pulse-position modulated (TH-PPM) UWB signal model under weak, moderate and strong turbulence conditions. For the optical system output distributed over radio frequency UWB channels, composite error analysis is also presented. The theoretical derivations are verified via simulation results, which indicate a computationally and spectrally efficient UWB-over-FSO system.

Analysis of the “naming game” with learning errors in communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yang; Chen, Guanrong

2015-07-01

Naming game simulates the process of naming an objective by a population of agents organized in a certain communication network. By pair-wise iterative interactions, the population reaches consensus asymptotically. We study naming game with communication errors during pair-wise conversations, with error rates in a uniform probability distribution. First, a model of naming game with learning errors in communications (NGLE) is proposed. Then, a strategy for agents to prevent learning errors is suggested. To that end, three typical topologies of communication networks, namely random-graph, small-world and scale-free networks, are employed to investigate the effects of various learning errors. Simulation results on these models show that 1) learning errors slightly affect the convergence speed but distinctively increase the requirement for memory of each agent during lexicon propagation; 2) the maximum number of different words held by the population increases linearly as the error rate increases; 3) without applying any strategy to eliminate learning errors, there is a threshold of the learning errors which impairs the convergence. The new findings may help to better understand the role of learning errors in naming game as well as in human language development from a network science perspective.

Analysis of the "naming game" with learning errors in communications.

PubMed

Lou, Yang; Chen, Guanrong

2015-07-16

Naming game simulates the process of naming an objective by a population of agents organized in a certain communication network. By pair-wise iterative interactions, the population reaches consensus asymptotically. We study naming game with communication errors during pair-wise conversations, with error rates in a uniform probability distribution. First, a model of naming game with learning errors in communications (NGLE) is proposed. Then, a strategy for agents to prevent learning errors is suggested. To that end, three typical topologies of communication networks, namely random-graph, small-world and scale-free networks, are employed to investigate the effects of various learning errors. Simulation results on these models show that 1) learning errors slightly affect the convergence speed but distinctively increase the requirement for memory of each agent during lexicon propagation; 2) the maximum number of different words held by the population increases linearly as the error rate increases; 3) without applying any strategy to eliminate learning errors, there is a threshold of the learning errors which impairs the convergence. The new findings may help to better understand the role of learning errors in naming game as well as in human language development from a network science perspective.

Diversity Order Analysis of Dual-Hop Relaying with Partial Relay Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Vo Nguyen Quoc; Kong, Hyung Yun

In this paper, we study the performance of dual hop relaying in which the best relay selected by partial relay selection will help the source-destination link to overcome the channel impairment. Specifically, closed-form expressions for outage probability, symbol error probability and achievable diversity gain are derived using the statistical characteristic of the signal-to-noise ratio. Numerical investigation shows that the system achieves diversity of two regardless of relay number and also confirms the correctness of the analytical results. Furthermore, the performance loss due to partial relay selection is investigated.

Optimizing the interpretation of CT for appendicitis: modeling health utilities for clinical practice.

PubMed

Blackmore, C Craig; Terasawa, Teruhiko

2006-02-01

Error in radiology can be reduced by standardizing the interpretation of imaging studies to the optimum sensitivity and specificity. In this report, the authors demonstrate how the optimal interpretation of appendiceal computed tomography (CT) can be determined and how it varies in different clinical scenarios. Utility analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve modeling were used to determine the trade-off between false-positive and false-negative test results to determine the optimal operating point on the ROC curve for the interpretation of appendicitis CT. Modeling was based on a previous meta-analysis for the accuracy of CT and on literature estimates of the utilities of various health states. The posttest probability of appendicitis was derived using Bayes's theorem. At a low prevalence of disease (screening), appendicitis CT should be interpreted at high specificity (97.7%), even at the expense of lower sensitivity (75%). Conversely, at a high probability of disease, high sensitivity (97.4%) is preferred (specificity 77.8%). When the clinical diagnosis of appendicitis is equivocal, CT interpretation should emphasize both sensitivity and specificity (sensitivity 92.3%, specificity 91.5%). Radiologists can potentially decrease medical error and improve patient health by varying the interpretation of appendiceal CT on the basis of the clinical probability of appendicitis. This report is an example of how utility analysis can be used to guide radiologists in the interpretation of imaging studies and provide guidance on appropriate targets for the standardization of interpretation.

Analysis of a first order phase locked loop in the presence of Gaussian noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blasche, P. R.

1977-01-01

A first-order digital phase locked loop is analyzed by application of a Markov chain model. Steady state loop error probabilities, phase standard deviation, and mean loop transient times are determined for various input signal to noise ratios. Results for direct loop simulation are presented for comparison.

A human reliability based usability evaluation method for safety-critical software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, R. L.; Tran, T. Q.; Gertman, D. I.

2006-07-01

Boring and Gertman (2005) introduced a novel method that augments heuristic usability evaluation methods with that of the human reliability analysis method of SPAR-H. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to individual heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). Although this UEP is not a literal probability of error, it nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. This method allows one to seamlessly prioritize and identify usability issues (i.e., a higher UEP requires more immediate fixes). However, the original version of this method required the usability evaluator to assign priority weights to the final UEP, thusmore » allowing the priority of a usability issue to differ among usability evaluators. The purpose of this paper is to explore an alternative approach to standardize the priority weighting of the UEP in an effort to improve the method's reliability. (authors)« less

Fault-tolerant clock synchronization validation methodology. [in computer systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Johnson, Sally C.

1987-01-01

A validation method for the synchronization subsystem of a fault-tolerant computer system is presented. The high reliability requirement of flight-crucial systems precludes the use of most traditional validation methods. The method presented utilizes formal design proof to uncover design and coding errors and experimentation to validate the assumptions of the design proof. The experimental method is described and illustrated by validating the clock synchronization system of the Software Implemented Fault Tolerance computer. The design proof of the algorithm includes a theorem that defines the maximum skew between any two nonfaulty clocks in the system in terms of specific system parameters. Most of these parameters are deterministic. One crucial parameter is the upper bound on the clock read error, which is stochastic. The probability that this upper bound is exceeded is calculated from data obtained by the measurement of system parameters. This probability is then included in a detailed reliability analysis of the system.

Probabilistic performance estimators for computational chemistry methods: The empirical cumulative distribution function of absolute errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pernot, Pascal; Savin, Andreas

2018-06-01

Benchmarking studies in computational chemistry use reference datasets to assess the accuracy of a method through error statistics. The commonly used error statistics, such as the mean signed and mean unsigned errors, do not inform end-users on the expected amplitude of prediction errors attached to these methods. We show that, the distributions of model errors being neither normal nor zero-centered, these error statistics cannot be used to infer prediction error probabilities. To overcome this limitation, we advocate for the use of more informative statistics, based on the empirical cumulative distribution function of unsigned errors, namely, (1) the probability for a new calculation to have an absolute error below a chosen threshold and (2) the maximal amplitude of errors one can expect with a chosen high confidence level. Those statistics are also shown to be well suited for benchmarking and ranking studies. Moreover, the standard error on all benchmarking statistics depends on the size of the reference dataset. Systematic publication of these standard errors would be very helpful to assess the statistical reliability of benchmarking conclusions.

Robust LOD scores for variance component-based linkage analysis.

PubMed

Blangero, J; Williams, J T; Almasy, L

2000-01-01

The variance component method is now widely used for linkage analysis of quantitative traits. Although this approach offers many advantages, the importance of the underlying assumption of multivariate normality of the trait distribution within pedigrees has not been studied extensively. Simulation studies have shown that traits with leptokurtic distributions yield linkage test statistics that exhibit excessive Type I error when analyzed naively. We derive analytical formulae relating the deviation from the expected asymptotic distribution of the lod score to the kurtosis and total heritability of the quantitative trait. A simple correction constant yields a robust lod score for any deviation from normality and for any pedigree structure, and effectively eliminates the problem of inflated Type I error due to misspecification of the underlying probability model in variance component-based linkage analysis.

Modulation/demodulation techniques for satellite communications. Part 1: Background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omura, J. K.; Simon, M. K.

1981-01-01

Basic characteristics of digital data transmission systems described include the physical communication links, the notion of bandwidth, FCC regulations, and performance measurements such as bit rates, bit error probabilities, throughputs, and delays. The error probability performance and spectral characteristics of various modulation/demodulation techniques commonly used or proposed for use in radio and satellite communication links are summarized. Forward error correction with block or convolutional codes is also discussed along with the important coding parameter, channel cutoff rate.

Voxel-based statistical analysis of uncertainties associated with deformable image registration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shunshan; Glide-Hurst, Carri; Lu, Mei; Kim, Jinkoo; Wen, Ning; Adams, Jeffrey N.; Gordon, James; Chetty, Indrin J.; Zhong, Hualiang

2013-09-01

Deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms have inherent uncertainties in their displacement vector fields (DVFs).The purpose of this study is to develop an optimal metric to estimate DIR uncertainties. Six computational phantoms have been developed from the CT images of lung cancer patients using a finite element method (FEM). The FEM generated DVFs were used as a standard for registrations performed on each of these phantoms. A mechanics-based metric, unbalanced energy (UE), was developed to evaluate these registration DVFs. The potential correlation between UE and DIR errors was explored using multivariate analysis, and the results were validated by landmark approach and compared with two other error metrics: DVF inverse consistency (IC) and image intensity difference (ID). Landmark-based validation was performed using the POPI-model. The results show that the Pearson correlation coefficient between UE and DIR error is rUE-error = 0.50. This is higher than rIC-error = 0.29 for IC and DIR error and rID-error = 0.37 for ID and DIR error. The Pearson correlation coefficient between UE and the product of the DIR displacements and errors is rUE-error × DVF = 0.62 for the six patients and rUE-error × DVF = 0.73 for the POPI-model data. It has been demonstrated that UE has a strong correlation with DIR errors, and the UE metric outperforms the IC and ID metrics in estimating DIR uncertainties. The quantified UE metric can be a useful tool for adaptive treatment strategies, including probability-based adaptive treatment planning.

Personnel reliability impact on petrochemical facilities monitoring system's failure skipping probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyukov, V. N.; Naumenko, A. P.

2017-08-01

The paper dwells upon urgent issues of evaluating impact of actions conducted by complex technological systems operators on their safe operation considering application of condition monitoring systems for elements and sub-systems of petrochemical production facilities. The main task for the research is to distinguish factors and criteria of monitoring system properties description, which would allow to evaluate impact of errors made by personnel on operation of real-time condition monitoring and diagnostic systems for machinery of petrochemical facilities, and find and objective criteria for monitoring system class, considering a human factor. On the basis of real-time condition monitoring concepts of sudden failure skipping risk, static and dynamic error, monitoring systems, one may solve a task of evaluation of impact that personnel's qualification has on monitoring system operation in terms of error in personnel or operators' actions while receiving information from monitoring systems and operating a technological system. Operator is considered as a part of the technological system. Although, personnel's behavior is usually a combination of the following parameters: input signal - information perceiving, reaction - decision making, response - decision implementing. Based on several researches on behavior of nuclear powers station operators in USA, Italy and other countries, as well as on researches conducted by Russian scientists, required data on operator's reliability were selected for analysis of operator's behavior at technological facilities diagnostics and monitoring systems. The calculations revealed that for the monitoring system selected as an example, the failure skipping risk for the set values of static (less than 0.01) and dynamic (less than 0.001) errors considering all related factors of data on reliability of information perception, decision-making, and reaction fulfilled is 0.037, in case when all the facilities and error probability are under control - not more than 0.027. In case when only pump and compressor units are under control, the failure skipping risk is not more than 0.022, when the probability of error in operator's action is not more than 0.011. The work output shows that on the basis of the researches results an assessment of operators' reliability can be made in terms of almost any kind of production, but considering only technological capabilities, since operators' psychological and general training considerable vary in different production industries. Using latest technologies of engineering psychology and design of data support systems, situation assessment systems, decision-making and responding system, as well as achievement in condition monitoring in various production industries one can evaluate hazardous condition skipping risk probability considering static, dynamic errors and human factor.

A quarter of a century of the DBQ: some supplementary notes on its validity with regard to accidents.

PubMed

de Winter, Joost C F; Dodou, Dimitra; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

This article synthesises the latest information on the relationship between the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) and accidents. We show by means of computer simulation that correlations with accidents are necessarily small because accidents are rare events. An updated meta-analysis on the zero-order correlations between the DBQ and self-reported accidents yielded an overall r of .13 (fixed-effect and random-effects models) for violations (57,480 participants; 67 samples) and .09 (fixed-effect and random-effects models) for errors (66,028 participants; 56 samples). An analysis of a previously published DBQ dataset (975 participants) showed that by aggregating across four measurement occasions, the correlation coefficient with self-reported accidents increased from .14 to .24 for violations and from .11 to .19 for errors. Our meta-analysis also showed that DBQ violations (r = .24; 6353 participants; 20 samples) but not DBQ errors (r = - .08; 1086 participants; 16 samples) correlated with recorded vehicle speed. Practitioner Summary: The DBQ is probably the most widely used self-report questionnaire in driver behaviour research. This study shows that DBQ violations and errors correlate moderately with self-reported traffic accidents.

Explanation of asymmetric dynamics of human water consumption in arid regions: prospect theory versus expected utility theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, F.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Based on socioeconomic and hydrological data in three arid inland basins and error analysis, the dynamics of human water consumption (HWC) are analyzed to be asymmetric, i.e., HWC increase rapidly in wet periods while maintain or decrease slightly in dry periods. Besides the qualitative analysis that in wet periods great water availability inspires HWC to grow fast but the now expanded economy is managed to sustain by over-exploitation in dry periods, two quantitative models are established and tested, based on expected utility theory (EUT) and prospect theory (PT) respectively. EUT states that humans make decisions based on the total expected utility, namely the sum of utility function multiplied by probability of each result, while PT states that the utility function is defined over gains and losses separately, and probability should be replaced by probability weighting function.

The calculation of average error probability in a digital fibre optical communication system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugemalira, R. A. M.

1980-03-01

This paper deals with the problem of determining the average error probability in a digital fibre optical communication system, in the presence of message dependent inhomogeneous non-stationary shot noise, additive Gaussian noise and intersymbol interference. A zero-forcing equalization receiver filter is considered. Three techniques for error rate evaluation are compared. The Chernoff bound and the Gram-Charlier series expansion methods are compared to the characteristic function technique. The latter predicts a higher receiver sensitivity

Detection of presence of chemical precursors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jing (Inventor); Meyyappan, Meyya (Inventor); Lu, Yijiang (Inventor)

2009-01-01

Methods and systems for determining if one or more target molecules are present in a gas, by exposing a functionalized carbon nanostructure (CNS) to the gas and measuring an electrical parameter value EPV(n) associated with each of N CNS sub-arrays. In a first embodiment, a most-probable concentration value C(opt) is estimated, and an error value, depending upon differences between the measured values EPV(n) and corresponding values EPV(n;C(opt)) is computed. If the error value is less than a first error threshold value, the system interprets this as indicating that the target molecule is present in a concentration C.apprxeq.C(opt). A second embodiment uses extensive statistical and vector space analysis to estimate target molecule concentration.

Probability shapes perceptual precision: A study in orientation estimation.

PubMed

Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

2015-12-01

Probability is known to affect perceptual estimations, but an understanding of mechanisms is lacking. Moving beyond binary classification tasks, we had naive participants report the orientation of briefly viewed gratings where we systematically manipulated contingent probability. Participants rapidly developed faster and more precise estimations for high-probability tilts. The shapes of their error distributions, as indexed by a kurtosis measure, also showed a distortion from Gaussian. This kurtosis metric was robust, capturing probability effects that were graded, contextual, and varying as a function of stimulus orientation. Our data can be understood as a probability-induced reduction in the variability or "shape" of estimation errors, as would be expected if probability affects the perceptual representations. As probability manipulations are an implicit component of many endogenous cuing paradigms, changes at the perceptual level could account for changes in performance that might have traditionally been ascribed to "attention." (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Reliability of Memories Protected by Multibit Error Correction Codes Against MBUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Zhu; Yi, Xiao Li; Chang, Liu; Wei, Zhang Jian

2011-02-01

As technology scales, more and more memory cells can be placed in a die. Therefore, the probability that a single event induces multiple bit upsets (MBUs) in adjacent memory cells gets greater. Generally, multibit error correction codes (MECCs) are effective approaches to mitigate MBUs in memories. In order to evaluate the robustness of protected memories, reliability models have been widely studied nowadays. Instead of irradiation experiments, the models can be used to quickly evaluate the reliability of memories in the early design. To build an accurate model, some situations should be considered. Firstly, when MBUs are presented in memories, the errors induced by several events may overlap each other, which is more frequent than single event upset (SEU) case. Furthermore, radiation experiments show that the probability of MBUs strongly depends on angles of the radiation event. However, reliability models which consider the overlap of multiple bit errors and angles of radiation event have not been proposed in the present literature. In this paper, a more accurate model of memories with MECCs is presented. Both the overlap of multiple bit errors and angles of event are considered in the model, which produces a more precise analysis in the calculation of mean time to failure (MTTF) for memory systems under MBUs. In addition, memories with scrubbing and nonscrubbing are analyzed in the proposed model. Finally, we evaluate the reliability of memories under MBUs in Matlab. The simulation results verify the validity of the proposed model.

Temporal uncertainty analysis of human errors based on interrelationships among multiple factors: a case of Minuteman III missile accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin; Zhao, Tingdi

2016-01-01

In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

[Medical errors: inevitable but preventable].

PubMed

Giard, R W

2001-10-27

Medical errors are increasingly reported in the lay press. Studies have shown dramatic error rates of 10 percent or even higher. From a methodological point of view, studying the frequency and causes of medical errors is far from simple. Clinical decisions on diagnostic or therapeutic interventions are always taken within a clinical context. Reviewing outcomes of interventions without taking into account both the intentions and the arguments for a particular action will limit the conclusions from a study on the rate and preventability of errors. The interpretation of the preventability of medical errors is fraught with difficulties and probably highly subjective. Blaming the doctor personally does not do justice to the actual situation and especially the organisational framework. Attention for and improvement of the organisational aspects of error are far more important then litigating the person. To err is and will remain human and if we want to reduce the incidence of faults we must be able to learn from our mistakes. That requires an open attitude towards medical mistakes, a continuous effort in their detection, a sound analysis and, where feasible, the institution of preventive measures.

Characteristics of Chinese-English bilingual dyslexia in right occipito-temporal lesion.

PubMed

Ting, Simon Kang Seng; Chia, Pei Shi; Chan, Yiong Huak; Kwek, Kevin Jun Hong; Tan, Wilnard; Hameed, Shahul; Tan, Eng-King

2017-11-01

Current literature suggests that right hemisphere lesions produce predominant spatial-related dyslexic error in English speakers. However, little is known regarding such lesions in Chinese speakers. In this paper, we describe the dyslexic characteristics of a Chinese-English bilingual patient with a right posterior cortical lesion. He was found to have profound spatial-related errors during his English word reading, in both real and non-words. During Chinese word reading, there was significantly less error compared to English, probably due to the ideographic nature of the Chinese language. He was also found to commit phonological-like visual errors in English, characterized by error responses that were visually similar to the actual word. There was no significant difference in visual errors during English word reading compared with Chinese. In general, our patient's performance in both languages appears to be consistent with the current literature on right posterior hemisphere lesions. Additionally, his performance also likely suggests that the right posterior cortical region participates in the visual analysis of orthographical word representation, both in ideographical and alphabetic languages, at least from a bilingual perspective. Future studies should further examine the role of the right posterior region in initial visual analysis of both languages. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of preparation time and trial type probability on performance of anti- and pro-saccades.

PubMed

Pierce, Jordan E; McDowell, Jennifer E

2016-02-01

Cognitive control optimizes responses to relevant task conditions by balancing bottom-up stimulus processing with top-down goal pursuit. It can be investigated using the ocular motor system by contrasting basic prosaccades (look toward a stimulus) with complex antisaccades (look away from a stimulus). Furthermore, the amount of time allotted between trials, the need to switch task sets, and the time allowed to prepare for an upcoming saccade all impact performance. In this study the relative probabilities of anti- and pro-saccades were manipulated across five blocks of interleaved trials, while the inter-trial interval and trial type cue duration were varied across subjects. Results indicated that inter-trial interval had no significant effect on error rates or reaction times (RTs), while a shorter trial type cue led to more antisaccade errors and faster overall RTs. Responses following a shorter cue duration also showed a stronger effect of trial type probability, with more antisaccade errors in blocks with a low antisaccade probability and slower RTs for each saccade task when its trial type was unlikely. A longer cue duration yielded fewer errors and slower RTs, with a larger switch cost for errors compared to a short cue duration. Findings demonstrated that when the trial type cue duration was shorter, visual motor responsiveness was faster and subjects relied upon the implicit trial probability context to improve performance. When the cue duration was longer, increased fixation-related activity may have delayed saccade motor preparation and slowed responses, guiding subjects to respond in a controlled manner regardless of trial type probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of rare events in quantum error correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravyi, Sergey; Vargo, Alexander

2013-12-01

We consider the problem of calculating the logical error probability for a stabilizer quantum code subject to random Pauli errors. To access the regime of large code distances where logical errors are extremely unlikely we adopt the splitting method widely used in Monte Carlo simulations of rare events and Bennett's acceptance ratio method for estimating the free energy difference between two canonical ensembles. To illustrate the power of these methods in the context of error correction, we calculate the logical error probability PL for the two-dimensional surface code on a square lattice with a pair of holes for all code distances d≤20 and all error rates p below the fault-tolerance threshold. Our numerical results confirm the expected exponential decay PL˜exp[-α(p)d] and provide a simple fitting formula for the decay rate α(p). Both noiseless and noisy syndrome readout circuits are considered.

A Generally Robust Approach for Testing Hypotheses and Setting Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keselman, H. J.; Algina, James; Lix, Lisa M.; Wilcox, Rand R.; Deering, Kathleen N.

2008-01-01

Standard least squares analysis of variance methods suffer from poor power under arbitrarily small departures from normality and fail to control the probability of a Type I error when standard assumptions are violated. This article describes a framework for robust estimation and testing that uses trimmed means with an approximate degrees of…

A New Twist on the Marcum Q-Function and its Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Marvin K.

1997-01-01

A new form of the Marcum Q-Function is presented that has both computational and analytical advantages. The new form is particularly useful in simplifying and rendering more accurate the analysis of the error probability performance of uncoded and coded partially coherent, differentially coherent, and noncoherent communication systems in the presence of fading.

On Space Exploration and Human Error: A Paper on Reliability and Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, David G.; Maluf, David A.; Gawdiak, Yuri

2005-01-01

NASA space exploration should largely address a problem class in reliability and risk management stemming primarily from human error, system risk and multi-objective trade-off analysis, by conducting research into system complexity, risk characterization and modeling, and system reasoning. In general, in every mission we can distinguish risk in three possible ways: a) known-known, b) known-unknown, and c) unknown-unknown. It is probably almost certain that space exploration will partially experience similar known or unknown risks embedded in the Apollo missions, Shuttle or Station unless something alters how NASA will perceive and manage safety and reliability

Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

PubMed

Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

2011-06-01

Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

Applications of Some Artificial Intelligence Methods to Satellite Soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munteanu, M. J.; Jakubowicz, O.

1985-01-01

Hard clustering of temperature profiles and regression temperature retrievals were used to refine the method using the probabilities of membership of each pattern vector in each of the clusters derived with discriminant analysis. In hard clustering the maximum probability is taken and the corresponding cluster as the correct cluster are considered discarding the rest of the probabilities. In fuzzy partitioned clustering these probabilities are kept and the final regression retrieval is a weighted regression retrieval of several clusters. This method was used in the clustering of brightness temperatures where the purpose was to predict tropopause height. A further refinement is the division of temperature profiles into three major regions for classification purposes. The results are summarized in the tables total r.m.s. errors are displayed. An approach based on fuzzy logic which is intimately related to artificial intelligence methods is recommended.

Analytic barrage attack model. Final report, January 1986-January 1989

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

St Ledger, J.W.; Naegeli, R.E.; Dowden, N.A.

An analytic model is developed for a nuclear barrage attack, assuming weapons with no aiming error and a cookie-cutter damage function. The model is then extended with approximations for the effects of aiming error and distance damage sigma. The final result is a fast running model which calculates probability of damage for a barrage attack. The probability of damage is accurate to within seven percent or better, for weapon reliabilities of 50 to 100 percent, distance damage sigmas of 0.5 or less, and zero to very large circular error probabilities. FORTRAN 77 coding is included in the report for themore » analytic model and for a numerical model used to check the analytic results.« less

Orbit determination error analysis and comparison of station-keeping costs for Lissajous and halo-type libration point orbits and sensitivity analysis using experimental design techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, Steven C.

1993-01-01

Spacecraft in orbit near libration point L1 in the Sun-Earth system are excellent platforms for research concerning solar effects on the terrestrial environment. One spacecraft mission launched in 1978 used an L1 orbit for nearly 4 years, and future L1 orbital missions are also being planned. Orbit determination and station-keeping are, however, required for these orbits. In particular, orbit determination error analysis may be used to compute the state uncertainty after a predetermined tracking period; the predicted state uncertainty levels then will impact the control costs computed in station-keeping simulations. Error sources, such as solar radiation pressure and planetary mass uncertainties, are also incorporated. For future missions, there may be some flexibility in the type and size of the spacecraft's nominal trajectory, but different orbits may produce varying error analysis and station-keeping results. The nominal path, for instance, can be (nearly) periodic or distinctly quasi-periodic. A periodic 'halo' orbit may be constructed to be significantly larger than a quasi-periodic 'Lissajous' path; both may meet mission requirements, but perhaps the required control costs for these orbits are probably different. Also for this spacecraft tracking and control simulation problem, experimental design methods can be used to determine the most significant uncertainties. That is, these methods can determine the error sources in the tracking and control problem that most impact the control cost (output); it also produces an equation that gives the approximate functional relationship between the error inputs and the output.

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: NGC 2682 uvby-Hbeta photometry (Balaguer-Nunez+, 2007)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaguer-Nunez, L.; Galadi-Enriquez, D.; Jordi, C.

2007-05-01

The catalogue of uvby-Hbeta and J2000 coordinates for 1843 stars in an area of 50'x50' around NGC 2682. We mark the selection of probable members of NGC 2682, combining the photometric study with an astrometric analysis. The cross-identification of stars in common with the astrometry (Zhao et al., 1993, Cat. ), BDA (htpp://obswww.unige.ch/WEBDA), Sanders (1977A&AS...27...89S), Hipparcos (ESA, 1997, Cat. ), Tycho-2 (Hog et al., 2000, Cat. ), and USNO-2 (Monet et al., 1998, Cat. ) catalogues. The proper motions from Zhao et al. (1993, Cat. ), their errors and membership probabilities of 1046 stars in the area of M~67, with parametric and non parametric membership probabilities. (3 data files).

Estimating parameters for probabilistic linkage of privacy-preserved datasets.

PubMed

Brown, Adrian P; Randall, Sean M; Ferrante, Anna M; Semmens, James B; Boyd, James H

2017-07-10

Probabilistic record linkage is a process used to bring together person-based records from within the same dataset (de-duplication) or from disparate datasets using pairwise comparisons and matching probabilities. The linkage strategy and associated match probabilities are often estimated through investigations into data quality and manual inspection. However, as privacy-preserved datasets comprise encrypted data, such methods are not possible. In this paper, we present a method for estimating the probabilities and threshold values for probabilistic privacy-preserved record linkage using Bloom filters. Our method was tested through a simulation study using synthetic data, followed by an application using real-world administrative data. Synthetic datasets were generated with error rates from zero to 20% error. Our method was used to estimate parameters (probabilities and thresholds) for de-duplication linkages. Linkage quality was determined by F-measure. Each dataset was privacy-preserved using separate Bloom filters for each field. Match probabilities were estimated using the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm on the privacy-preserved data. Threshold cut-off values were determined by an extension to the EM algorithm allowing linkage quality to be estimated for each possible threshold. De-duplication linkages of each privacy-preserved dataset were performed using both estimated and calculated probabilities. Linkage quality using the F-measure at the estimated threshold values was also compared to the highest F-measure. Three large administrative datasets were used to demonstrate the applicability of the probability and threshold estimation technique on real-world data. Linkage of the synthetic datasets using the estimated probabilities produced an F-measure that was comparable to the F-measure using calculated probabilities, even with up to 20% error. Linkage of the administrative datasets using estimated probabilities produced an F-measure that was higher than the F-measure using calculated probabilities. Further, the threshold estimation yielded results for F-measure that were only slightly below the highest possible for those probabilities. The method appears highly accurate across a spectrum of datasets with varying degrees of error. As there are few alternatives for parameter estimation, the approach is a major step towards providing a complete operational approach for probabilistic linkage of privacy-preserved datasets.

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE PAGES

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

2018-01-01

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

The Use Of Computational Human Performance Modeling As Task Analysis Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacuqes Hugo; David Gertman

2012-07-01

During a review of the Advanced Test Reactor safety basis at the Idaho National Laboratory, human factors engineers identified ergonomic and human reliability risks involving the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element to the air during manual fuel movement and inspection in the canal. There were clear indications that these risks increased the probability of human error and possible severe physical outcomes to the operator. In response to this concern, a detailed study was conducted to determine the probability of the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element. Due to practical and safety constraints, the task network analysis technique was employedmore » to study the work procedures at the canal. Discrete-event simulation software was used to model the entire procedure as well as the salient physical attributes of the task environment, such as distances walked, the effect of dropped tools, the effect of hazardous body postures, and physical exertion due to strenuous tool handling. The model also allowed analysis of the effect of cognitive processes such as visual perception demands, auditory information and verbal communication. The model made it possible to obtain reliable predictions of operator performance and workload estimates. It was also found that operator workload as well as the probability of human error in the fuel inspection and transfer task were influenced by the concurrent nature of certain phases of the task and the associated demand on cognitive and physical resources. More importantly, it was possible to determine with reasonable accuracy the stages as well as physical locations in the fuel handling task where operators would be most at risk of losing their balance and falling into the canal. The model also provided sufficient information for a human reliability analysis that indicated that the postulated fuel exposure accident was less than credible.« less

Correcting for particle counting bias error in turbulent flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, R. V.; Baratuci, W.

1985-01-01

An ideal seeding device is proposed generating particles that exactly follow the flow out are still a major source of error, i.e., with a particle counting bias wherein the probability of measuring velocity is a function of velocity. The error in the measured mean can be as much as 25%. Many schemes have been put forward to correct for this error, but there is not universal agreement as to the acceptability of any one method. In particular it is sometimes difficult to know if the assumptions required in the analysis are fulfilled by any particular flow measurement system. To check various correction mechanisms in an ideal way and to gain some insight into how to correct with the fewest initial assumptions, a computer simulation is constructed to simulate laser anemometer measurements in a turbulent flow. That simulator and the results of its use are discussed.

Relation between minimum-error discrimination and optimum unambiguous discrimination

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qiu Daowen; SQIG-Instituto de Telecomunicacoes, Departamento de Matematica, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa, Avenida Rovisco Pais PT-1049-001, Lisbon; Li Lvjun

2010-09-15

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the minimum-error probability Q{sub E} of ambiguous discrimination and the optimal inconclusive probability Q{sub U} of unambiguous discrimination. It is known that for discriminating two states, the inequality Q{sub U{>=}}2Q{sub E} has been proved in the literature. The main technical results are as follows: (1) We show that, for discriminating more than two states, Q{sub U{>=}}2Q{sub E} may not hold again, but the infimum of Q{sub U}/Q{sub E} is 1, and there is no supremum of Q{sub U}/Q{sub E}, which implies that the failure probabilities of the two schemes for discriminating somemore » states may be narrowly or widely gapped. (2) We derive two concrete formulas of the minimum-error probability Q{sub E} and the optimal inconclusive probability Q{sub U}, respectively, for ambiguous discrimination and unambiguous discrimination among arbitrary m simultaneously diagonalizable mixed quantum states with given prior probabilities. In addition, we show that Q{sub E} and Q{sub U} satisfy the relationship that Q{sub U{>=}}(m/m-1)Q{sub E}.« less

Cooperative MIMO communication at wireless sensor network: an error correcting code approach.

PubMed

Islam, Mohammad Rakibul; Han, Young Shin

2011-01-01

Cooperative communication in wireless sensor network (WSN) explores the energy efficient wireless communication schemes between multiple sensors and data gathering node (DGN) by exploiting multiple input multiple output (MIMO) and multiple input single output (MISO) configurations. In this paper, an energy efficient cooperative MIMO (C-MIMO) technique is proposed where low density parity check (LDPC) code is used as an error correcting code. The rate of LDPC code is varied by varying the length of message and parity bits. Simulation results show that the cooperative communication scheme outperforms SISO scheme in the presence of LDPC code. LDPC codes with different code rates are compared using bit error rate (BER) analysis. BER is also analyzed under different Nakagami fading scenario. Energy efficiencies are compared for different targeted probability of bit error p(b). It is observed that C-MIMO performs more efficiently when the targeted p(b) is smaller. Also the lower encoding rate for LDPC code offers better error characteristics.

Cooperative MIMO Communication at Wireless Sensor Network: An Error Correcting Code Approach

PubMed Central

Islam, Mohammad Rakibul; Han, Young Shin

2011-01-01

Cooperative communication in wireless sensor network (WSN) explores the energy efficient wireless communication schemes between multiple sensors and data gathering node (DGN) by exploiting multiple input multiple output (MIMO) and multiple input single output (MISO) configurations. In this paper, an energy efficient cooperative MIMO (C-MIMO) technique is proposed where low density parity check (LDPC) code is used as an error correcting code. The rate of LDPC code is varied by varying the length of message and parity bits. Simulation results show that the cooperative communication scheme outperforms SISO scheme in the presence of LDPC code. LDPC codes with different code rates are compared using bit error rate (BER) analysis. BER is also analyzed under different Nakagami fading scenario. Energy efficiencies are compared for different targeted probability of bit error pb. It is observed that C-MIMO performs more efficiently when the targeted pb is smaller. Also the lower encoding rate for LDPC code offers better error characteristics. PMID:22163732

Improving specialist drug prescribing in primary care using task and error analysis: an observational study.

PubMed

Chana, Narinder; Porat, Talya; Whittlesea, Cate; Delaney, Brendan

2017-03-01

Electronic prescribing has benefited from computerised clinical decision support systems (CDSSs); however, no published studies have evaluated the potential for a CDSS to support GPs in prescribing specialist drugs. To identify potential weaknesses and errors in the existing process of prescribing specialist drugs that could be addressed in the development of a CDSS. Semi-structured interviews with key informants followed by an observational study involving GPs in the UK. Twelve key informants were interviewed to investigate the use of CDSSs in the UK. Nine GPs were observed while performing case scenarios depicting requests from hospitals or patients to prescribe a specialist drug. Activity diagrams, hierarchical task analysis, and systematic human error reduction and prediction approach analyses were performed. The current process of prescribing specialist drugs by GPs is prone to error. Errors of omission due to lack of information were the most common errors, which could potentially result in a GP prescribing a specialist drug that should only be prescribed in hospitals, or prescribing a specialist drug without reference to a shared care protocol. Half of all possible errors in the prescribing process had a high probability of occurrence. A CDSS supporting GPs during the process of prescribing specialist drugs is needed. This could, first, support the decision making of whether or not to undertake prescribing, and, second, provide drug-specific parameters linked to shared care protocols, which could reduce the errors identified and increase patient safety. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

The inference of atmospheric ozone using satellite horizon measurements in the 1042 per cm band.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, J. M., III; Drayson, S. R.

1972-01-01

Description of a method for inferring atmospheric ozone information using infrared horizon radiance measurements in the 1042 per cm band. An analysis based on this method proves the feasibility of the horizon experiment for determining ozone information and shows that the ozone partial pressure can be determined in the altitude range from 50 down to 25 km. A comprehensive error study is conducted which considers effects of individual errors as well as the effect of all error sources acting simultaneously. The results show that in the absence of a temperature profile bias error, it should be possible to determine the ozone partial pressure to within an rms value of 15 to 20%. It may be possible to reduce this rms error to 5% by smoothing the solution profile. These results would be seriously degraded by an atmospheric temperature bias error of only 3 K; thus, great care should be taken to minimize this source of error in an experiment. It is probable, in view of recent technological developments, that these errors will be much smaller in future flight experiments and the altitude range will widen to include from about 60 km down to the tropopause region.

Head repositioning accuracy to neutral: a comparative study of error calculation.

PubMed

Hill, Robert; Jensen, Pål; Baardsen, Tor; Kulvik, Kristian; Jull, Gwendolen; Treleaven, Julia

2009-02-01

Deficits in cervical proprioception have been identified in subjects with neck pain through the measure of head repositioning accuracy (HRA). Nevertheless there appears to be no general consensus regarding the construct of measurement of error used for calculating HRA. This study investigated four different mathematical methods of measurement of error to determine if there were any differences in their ability to discriminate between a control group and subjects with a whiplash associated disorder. The four methods for measuring cervical joint position error were calculated using a previous data set consisting of 50 subjects with whiplash complaining of dizziness (WAD D), 50 subjects with whiplash not complaining of dizziness (WAD ND) and 50 control subjects. The results indicated that no one measure of HRA uniquely detected or defined the differences between the whiplash and control groups. Constant error (CE) was significantly different between the whiplash and control groups from extension (p<0.05). Absolute errors (AEs) and root mean square errors (RMSEs) demonstrated differences between the two WAD groups in rotation trials (p<0.05). No differences were seen with variable error (VE). The results suggest that a combination of AE (or RMSE) and CE are probably the most suitable measures for analysis of HRA.

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghrist, Richard W.; Plakalovic, Dragan

2012-01-01

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

At least some errors are randomly generated (Freud was wrong)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellen, A. J.; Senders, J. W.

1986-01-01

An experiment was carried out to expose something about human error generating mechanisms. In the context of the experiment, an error was made when a subject pressed the wrong key on a computer keyboard or pressed no key at all in the time allotted. These might be considered, respectively, errors of substitution and errors of omission. Each of seven subjects saw a sequence of three digital numbers, made an easily learned binary judgement about each, and was to press the appropriate one of two keys. Each session consisted of 1,000 presentations of randomly permuted, fixed numbers broken into 10 blocks of 100. One of two keys should have been pressed within one second of the onset of each stimulus. These data were subjected to statistical analyses in order to probe the nature of the error generating mechanisms. Goodness of fit tests for a Poisson distribution for the number of errors per 50 trial interval and for an exponential distribution of the length of the intervals between errors were carried out. There is evidence for an endogenous mechanism that may best be described as a random error generator. Furthermore, an item analysis of the number of errors produced per stimulus suggests the existence of a second mechanism operating on task driven factors producing exogenous errors. Some errors, at least, are the result of constant probability generating mechanisms with error rate idiosyncratically determined for each subject.

Quantization of high dimensional Gaussian vector using permutation modulation with application to information reconciliation in continuous variable QKD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneshgaran, Fred; Mondin, Marina; Olia, Khashayar

This paper is focused on the problem of Information Reconciliation (IR) for continuous variable Quantum Key Distribution (QKD). The main problem is quantization and assignment of labels to the samples of the Gaussian variables observed at Alice and Bob. Trouble is that most of the samples, assuming that the Gaussian variable is zero mean which is de-facto the case, tend to have small magnitudes and are easily disturbed by noise. Transmission over longer and longer distances increases the losses corresponding to a lower effective Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) exasperating the problem. Quantization over higher dimensions is advantageous since it allows for fractional bit per sample accuracy which may be needed at very low SNR conditions whereby the achievable secret key rate is significantly less than one bit per sample. In this paper, we propose to use Permutation Modulation (PM) for quantization of Gaussian vectors potentially containing thousands of samples. PM is applied to the magnitudes of the Gaussian samples and we explore the dependence of the sign error probability on the magnitude of the samples. At very low SNR, we may transmit the entire label of the PM code from Bob to Alice in Reverse Reconciliation (RR) over public channel. The side information extracted from this label can then be used by Alice to characterize the sign error probability of her individual samples. Forward Error Correction (FEC) coding can be used by Bob on each subset of samples with similar sign error probability to aid Alice in error correction. This can be done for different subsets of samples with similar sign error probabilities leading to an Unequal Error Protection (UEP) coding paradigm.

Publisher Correction: Polymorphic design of DNA origami structures through mechanical control of modular components.

PubMed

Lee, Chanseok; Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Do-Nyun

2018-02-07

The originally published version of this Article contained an error in Figure 5. In panel f, the right y-axis 'Strain energy (kbT)' was labelled 'Probability' and the left y-axis 'Probability' was labelled 'Strain energy (kbT)'. This error has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

A contemporary approach to the problem of determining physical parameters according to the results of measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elyasberg, P. Y.

1979-01-01

The shortcomings of the classical approach are set forth, and the newer methods resulting from these shortcomings are explained. The problem was approached with the assumption that the probabilities of error were known, as well as without knowledge of the distribution of the probabilities of error. The advantages of the newer approach are discussed.

mtDNAmanager: a Web-based tool for the management and quality analysis of mitochondrial DNA control-region sequences

PubMed Central

Lee, Hwan Young; Song, Injee; Ha, Eunho; Cho, Sung-Bae; Yang, Woo Ick; Shin, Kyoung-Jin

2008-01-01

Background For the past few years, scientific controversy has surrounded the large number of errors in forensic and literature mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data. However, recent research has shown that using mtDNA phylogeny and referring to known mtDNA haplotypes can be useful for checking the quality of sequence data. Results We developed a Web-based bioinformatics resource "mtDNAmanager" that offers a convenient interface supporting the management and quality analysis of mtDNA sequence data. The mtDNAmanager performs computations on mtDNA control-region sequences to estimate the most-probable mtDNA haplogroups and retrieves similar sequences from a selected database. By the phased designation of the most-probable haplogroups (both expected and estimated haplogroups), mtDNAmanager enables users to systematically detect errors whilst allowing for confirmation of the presence of clear key diagnostic mutations and accompanying mutations. The query tools of mtDNAmanager also facilitate database screening with two options of "match" and "include the queried nucleotide polymorphism". In addition, mtDNAmanager provides Web interfaces for users to manage and analyse their own data in batch mode. Conclusion The mtDNAmanager will provide systematic routines for mtDNA sequence data management and analysis via easily accessible Web interfaces, and thus should be very useful for population, medical and forensic studies that employ mtDNA analysis. mtDNAmanager can be accessed at . PMID:19014619

Apollo 15 mission report: Apollo 15 guidance, navigation, and control system performance analysis report (supplement 1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

This report contains the results of additional studies which were conducted to confirm the conclusions of the MSC Mission Report and contains analyses which were not completed in time to meet the mission report deadline. The LM IMU data were examined during the lunar descent and ascent phases. Most of the PGNCS descent absolute velocity error was caused by platform misalignments. PGNCS radial velocity divergence from AGS during the early part of descent was partially caused by PGNCS gravity computation differences from AGS. The remainder of the differences between PGNCS and AGS velocity were easily attributable to attitude reference alignment differences and tolerable instrument errors. For ascent the PGNCS radial velocity error at insertion was examined. The total error of 10.8 ft/sec was well within mission constraints but larger than expected. Of the total error, 2.30 ft/sec was PIPA bias error, which was suspected to exist pre-lunar liftoff. The remaining 8.5 ft/sec is most probably satisified with a large pre-liftoff planform misalignment.

An Upper Bound on High Speed Satellite Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2015-01-01

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, PC †, have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum PC. If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but potentially useful Pc upper bound.

The decline and fall of Type II error rates

Treesearch

Steve Verrill; Mark Durst

2005-01-01

For general linear models with normally distributed random errors, the probability of a Type II error decreases exponentially as a function of sample size. This potentially rapid decline reemphasizes the importance of performing power calculations.

Optical Communications: A Compendium of Signal Formats, Receiver Architectures, Analysis Mathematics, and Performance Characteristics

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-09

the properties that Ps 2 = (2N,) M = 2 (147) Ps4 = 0-(l-Ps 2 ) 2 M =4 . (148) Interestingly, the bit-error probability from Gray-coded 4PSK is the...comparisons will motivate the reader to invent efficient systems that can achieve the theoretical possibilities. 61 REFERENCES [1] Ban, M., Kurokawa, K

Metrics for Business Process Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendling, Jan

Up until now, there has been little research on why people introduce errors in real-world business process models. In a more general context, Simon [404] points to the limitations of cognitive capabilities and concludes that humans act rationally only to a certain extent. Concerning modeling errors, this argument would imply that human modelers lose track of the interrelations of large and complex models due to their limited cognitive capabilities and introduce errors that they would not insert in a small model. A recent study by Mendling et al. [275] explores in how far certain complexity metrics of business process models have the potential to serve as error determinants. The authors conclude that complexity indeed appears to have an impact on error probability. Before we can test such a hypothesis in a more general setting, we have to establish an understanding of how we can define determinants that drive error probability and how we can measure them.

Quantum state discrimination bounds for finite sample size

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Audenaert, Koenraad M. R.; Mosonyi, Milan; Mathematical Institute, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Egry Jozsef u 1., Budapest 1111

2012-12-15

In the problem of quantum state discrimination, one has to determine by measurements the state of a quantum system, based on the a priori side information that the true state is one of the two given and completely known states, {rho} or {sigma}. In general, it is not possible to decide the identity of the true state with certainty, and the optimal measurement strategy depends on whether the two possible errors (mistaking {rho} for {sigma}, or the other way around) are treated as of equal importance or not. Results on the quantum Chernoff and Hoeffding bounds and the quantum Stein'smore » lemma show that, if several copies of the system are available then the optimal error probabilities decay exponentially in the number of copies, and the decay rate is given by a certain statistical distance between {rho} and {sigma} (the Chernoff distance, the Hoeffding distances, and the relative entropy, respectively). While these results provide a complete solution to the asymptotic problem, they are not completely satisfying from a practical point of view. Indeed, in realistic scenarios one has access only to finitely many copies of a system, and therefore it is desirable to have bounds on the error probabilities for finite sample size. In this paper we provide finite-size bounds on the so-called Stein errors, the Chernoff errors, the Hoeffding errors, and the mixed error probabilities related to the Chernoff and the Hoeffding errors.« less

Distribution of the two-sample t-test statistic following blinded sample size re-estimation.

PubMed

Lu, Kaifeng

2016-05-01

We consider the blinded sample size re-estimation based on the simple one-sample variance estimator at an interim analysis. We characterize the exact distribution of the standard two-sample t-test statistic at the final analysis. We describe a simulation algorithm for the evaluation of the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at given treatment effect. We compare the blinded sample size re-estimation method with two unblinded methods with respect to the empirical type I error, the empirical power, and the empirical distribution of the standard deviation estimator and final sample size. We characterize the type I error inflation across the range of standardized non-inferiority margin for non-inferiority trials, and derive the adjusted significance level to ensure type I error control for given sample size of the internal pilot study. We show that the adjusted significance level increases as the sample size of the internal pilot study increases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cue-based assertion classification for Swedish clinical text – developing a lexicon for pyConTextSwe

PubMed Central

Velupillai, Sumithra; Skeppstedt, Maria; Kvist, Maria; Mowery, Danielle; Chapman, Brian E.; Dalianis, Hercules; Chapman, Wendy W.

2014-01-01

Objective The ability of a cue-based system to accurately assert whether a disorder is affirmed, negated, or uncertain is dependent, in part, on its cue lexicon. In this paper, we continue our study of porting an assertion system (pyConTextNLP) from English to Swedish (pyConTextSwe) by creating an optimized assertion lexicon for clinical Swedish. Methods and material We integrated cues from four external lexicons, along with generated inflections and combinations. We used subsets of a clinical corpus in Swedish. We applied four assertion classes (definite existence, probable existence, probable negated existence and definite negated existence) and two binary classes (existence yes/no and uncertainty yes/no) to pyConTextSwe. We compared pyConTextSwe’s performance with and without the added cues on a development set, and improved the lexicon further after an error analysis. On a separate evaluation set, we calculated the system’s final performance. Results Following integration steps, we added 454 cues to pyConTextSwe. The optimized lexicon developed after an error analysis resulted in statistically significant improvements on the development set (83% F-score, overall). The system’s final F-scores on an evaluation set were 81% (overall). For the individual assertion classes, F-score results were 88% (definite existence), 81% (probable existence), 55% (probable negated existence), and 63% (definite negated existence). For the binary classifications existence yes/no and uncertainty yes/no, final system performance was 97%/87% and 78%/86% F-score, respectively. Conclusions We have successfully ported pyConTextNLP to Swedish (pyConTextSwe). We have created an extensive and useful assertion lexicon for Swedish clinical text, which could form a valuable resource for similar studies, and which is publicly available. PMID:24556644

Data and results of a laboratory investigation of microprocessor upset caused by simulated lightning-induced analog transients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, C. M.

1984-01-01

A methodology was developed a assess the upset susceptibility/reliability of a computer system onboard an aircraft flying through a lightning environment. Upset error modes in a general purpose microprocessor were studied. The upset tests involved the random input of analog transients which model lightning induced signals onto interface lines of an 8080 based microcomputer from which upset error data was recorded. The program code on the microprocessor during tests is designed to exercise all of the machine cycles and memory addressing techniques implemented in the 8080 central processing unit. A statistical analysis is presented in which possible correlations are established between the probability of upset occurrence and transient signal inputs during specific processing states and operations. A stochastic upset susceptibility model for the 8080 microprocessor is presented. The susceptibility of this microprocessor to upset, once analog transients have entered the system, is determined analytically by calculating the state probabilities of the stochastic model.

Sensitivity to prediction error in reach adaptation

PubMed Central

Haith, Adrian M.; Harran, Michelle D.; Shadmehr, Reza

2012-01-01

It has been proposed that the brain predicts the sensory consequences of a movement and compares it to the actual sensory feedback. When the two differ, an error signal is formed, driving adaptation. How does an error in one trial alter performance in the subsequent trial? Here we show that the sensitivity to error is not constant but declines as a function of error magnitude. That is, one learns relatively less from large errors compared with small errors. We performed an experiment in which humans made reaching movements and randomly experienced an error in both their visual and proprioceptive feedback. Proprioceptive errors were created with force fields, and visual errors were formed by perturbing the cursor trajectory to create a visual error that was smaller, the same size, or larger than the proprioceptive error. We measured single-trial adaptation and calculated sensitivity to error, i.e., the ratio of the trial-to-trial change in motor commands to error size. We found that for both sensory modalities sensitivity decreased with increasing error size. A reanalysis of a number of previously published psychophysical results also exhibited this feature. Finally, we asked how the brain might encode sensitivity to error. We reanalyzed previously published probabilities of cerebellar complex spikes (CSs) and found that this probability declined with increasing error size. From this we posit that a CS may be representative of the sensitivity to error, and not error itself, a hypothesis that may explain conflicting reports about CSs and their relationship to error. PMID:22773782

Asymmetric Memory Circuit Would Resist Soft Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehler, Martin G.; Perlman, Marvin

1990-01-01

Some nonlinear error-correcting codes more efficient in presence of asymmetry. Combination of circuit-design and coding concepts expected to make integrated-circuit random-access memories more resistant to "soft" errors (temporary bit errors, also called "single-event upsets" due to ionizing radiation). Integrated circuit of new type made deliberately more susceptible to one kind of bit error than to other, and associated error-correcting code adapted to exploit this asymmetry in error probabilities.

On the Probability of Error and Stochastic Resonance in Discrete Memoryless Channels

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Information - Driven Doppler Shift Estimation and Compensation Methods for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks ”, which is to analyze and develop... underwater wireless sensor networks . We formulated an analytic relationship that relates the average probability of error to the systems parameters, the...thesis, we studied the performance of Discrete Memoryless Channels (DMC), arising in the context of cooperative underwater wireless sensor networks

Probability of misclassifying biological elements in surface waters.

PubMed

Loga, Małgorzata; Wierzchołowska-Dziedzic, Anna

2017-11-24

Measurement uncertainties are inherent to assessment of biological indices of water bodies. The effect of these uncertainties on the probability of misclassification of ecological status is the subject of this paper. Four Monte-Carlo (M-C) models were applied to simulate the occurrence of random errors in the measurements of metrics corresponding to four biological elements of surface waters: macrophytes, phytoplankton, phytobenthos, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Long series of error-prone measurement values of these metrics, generated by M-C models, were used to identify cases in which values of any of the four biological indices lay outside of the "true" water body class, i.e., outside the class assigned from the actual physical measurements. Fraction of such cases in the M-C generated series was used to estimate the probability of misclassification. The method is particularly useful for estimating the probability of misclassification of the ecological status of surface water bodies in the case of short sequences of measurements of biological indices. The results of the Monte-Carlo simulations show a relatively high sensitivity of this probability to measurement errors of the river macrophyte index (MIR) and high robustness to measurement errors of the benthic macroinvertebrate index (MMI). The proposed method of using Monte-Carlo models to estimate the probability of misclassification has significant potential for assessing the uncertainty of water body status reported to the EC by the EU member countries according to WFD. The method can be readily applied also in risk assessment of water management decisions before adopting the status dependent corrective actions.

Specificity of Atmosphere Correction of Satellite Ocean Color Data in Far-Eastern Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trusenkova, O.; Kachur, V.; Aleksanin, A. I.

2016-02-01

It was carried out an error analysis of satellite reflectance coefficients (Rrs) of MODIS/AQUA colour data for two atmospheric correction algorithms (NIR, MUMM) in the Far-Eastern region. Some sets of unique data of in situ and satellite measurements have been analysed. A set has some measurements with ASD spectroradiometer for each satellite pass. The measurement allocations were selected so the Chlorophyll-a concentration has high variability. Analysis of arbitrary set demonstrated that the main error component is systematic error, and it has simple relations on Rrs values. The reasons of such error behavior are considered. The most probable explanation of the large errors of oceanic color parameters in the Far-Eastern region is the ability of high concentrations of continental aerosol. A comparison of satellite and in situ measurements at AERONET stations of USA and South Korea regions has been made. It was shown that for NIR-correction of the atmosphere influence the error values in these two regions have differences up to 10 times for almost the same water turbidity and relatively good accuracy of computation of aerosol optical thickness. The study was supported by grant Russian Scientific Foundation No. 14-50-00034, by grant of Russian Foundation of Basic Research No.15-35-21032-mol-a-ved, and by Program of Basic Research "Far East" of Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

[Failure modes and effects analysis in the prescription, validation and dispensing process].

PubMed

Delgado Silveira, E; Alvarez Díaz, A; Pérez Menéndez-Conde, C; Serna Pérez, J; Rodríguez Sagrado, M A; Bermejo Vicedo, T

2012-01-01

To apply a failure modes and effects analysis to the prescription, validation and dispensing process for hospitalised patients. A work group analysed all of the stages included in the process from prescription to dispensing, identifying the most critical errors and establishing potential failure modes which could produce a mistake. The possible causes, their potential effects, and the existing control systems were analysed to try and stop them from developing. The Hazard Score was calculated, choosing those that were ≥ 8, and a Severity Index = 4 was selected independently of the hazard Score value. Corrective measures and an implementation plan were proposed. A flow diagram that describes the whole process was obtained. A risk analysis was conducted of the chosen critical points, indicating: failure mode, cause, effect, severity, probability, Hazard Score, suggested preventative measure and strategy to achieve so. Failure modes chosen: Prescription on the nurse's form; progress or treatment order (paper); Prescription to incorrect patient; Transcription error by nursing staff and pharmacist; Error preparing the trolley. By applying a failure modes and effects analysis to the prescription, validation and dispensing process, we have been able to identify critical aspects, the stages in which errors may occur and the causes. It has allowed us to analyse the effects on the safety of the process, and establish measures to prevent or reduce them. Copyright © 2010 SEFH. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

PubMed

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Three-class ROC analysis--the equal error utility assumption and the optimality of three-class ROC surface using the ideal observer.

PubMed

He, Xin; Frey, Eric C

2006-08-01

Previously, we have developed a decision model for three-class receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on decision theory. The proposed decision model maximizes the expected decision utility under the assumption that incorrect decisions have equal utilities under the same hypothesis (equal error utility assumption). This assumption reduced the dimensionality of the "general" three-class ROC analysis and provided a practical figure-of-merit to evaluate the three-class task performance. However, it also limits the generality of the resulting model because the equal error utility assumption will not apply for all clinical three-class decision tasks. The goal of this study was to investigate the optimality of the proposed three-class decision model with respect to several other decision criteria. In particular, besides the maximum expected utility (MEU) criterion used in the previous study, we investigated the maximum-correctness (MC) (or minimum-error), maximum likelihood (ML), and Nyman-Pearson (N-P) criteria. We found that by making assumptions for both MEU and N-P criteria, all decision criteria lead to the previously-proposed three-class decision model. As a result, this model maximizes the expected utility under the equal error utility assumption, maximizes the probability of making correct decisions, satisfies the N-P criterion in the sense that it maximizes the sensitivity of one class given the sensitivities of the other two classes, and the resulting ROC surface contains the maximum likelihood decision operating point. While the proposed three-class ROC analysis model is not optimal in the general sense due to the use of the equal error utility assumption, the range of criteria for which it is optimal increases its applicability for evaluating and comparing a range of diagnostic systems.

Equalization and detection for digital communication over nonlinear bandlimited satellite communication channels. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutierrez, Alberto, Jr.

1995-01-01

This dissertation evaluates receiver-based methods for mitigating the effects due to nonlinear bandlimited signal distortion present in high data rate satellite channels. The effects of the nonlinear bandlimited distortion is illustrated for digitally modulated signals. A lucid development of the low-pass Volterra discrete time model for a nonlinear communication channel is presented. In addition, finite-state machine models are explicitly developed for a nonlinear bandlimited satellite channel. A nonlinear fixed equalizer based on Volterra series has previously been studied for compensation of noiseless signal distortion due to a nonlinear satellite channel. This dissertation studies adaptive Volterra equalizers on a downlink-limited nonlinear bandlimited satellite channel. We employ as figure of merits performance in the mean-square error and probability of error senses. In addition, a receiver consisting of a fractionally-spaced equalizer (FSE) followed by a Volterra equalizer (FSE-Volterra) is found to give improvement beyond that gained by the Volterra equalizer. Significant probability of error performance improvement is found for multilevel modulation schemes. Also, it is found that probability of error improvement is more significant for modulation schemes, constant amplitude and multilevel, which require higher signal to noise ratios (i.e., higher modulation orders) for reliable operation. The maximum likelihood sequence detection (MLSD) receiver for a nonlinear satellite channel, a bank of matched filters followed by a Viterbi detector, serves as a probability of error lower bound for the Volterra and FSE-Volterra equalizers. However, this receiver has not been evaluated for a specific satellite channel. In this work, an MLSD receiver is evaluated for a specific downlink-limited satellite channel. Because of the bank of matched filters, the MLSD receiver may be high in complexity. Consequently, the probability of error performance of a more practical suboptimal MLSD receiver, requiring only a single receive filter, is evaluated.

Development of a Nonlinear Probability of Collision Tool for the Earth Observing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKinley, David P.

2006-01-01

The Earth Observing System (EOS) spacecraft Terra, Aqua, and Aura fly in constellation with several other spacecraft in 705-kilometer mean altitude sun-synchronous orbits. All three spacecraft are operated by the Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). In 2004, the ESMO project began assessing the probability of collision of the EOS spacecraft with other space objects. In addition to conjunctions with high relative velocities, the collision assessment method for the EOS spacecraft must address conjunctions with low relative velocities during potential collisions between constellation members. Probability of Collision algorithms that are based on assumptions of high relative velocities and linear relative trajectories are not suitable for these situations; therefore an algorithm for handling the nonlinear relative trajectories was developed. This paper describes this algorithm and presents results from its validation for operational use. The probability of collision is typically calculated by integrating a Gaussian probability distribution over the volume swept out by a sphere representing the size of the space objects involved in the conjunction. This sphere is defined as the Hard Body Radius. With the assumption of linear relative trajectories, this volume is a cylinder, which translates into simple limits of integration for the probability calculation. For the case of nonlinear relative trajectories, the volume becomes a complex geometry. However, with an appropriate choice of coordinate systems, the new algorithm breaks down the complex geometry into a series of simple cylinders that have simple limits of integration. This nonlinear algorithm will be discussed in detail in the paper. The nonlinear Probability of Collision algorithm was first verified by showing that, when used in high relative velocity cases, it yields similar answers to existing high relative velocity linear relative trajectory algorithms. The comparison with the existing high velocity/linear theory will also be used to determine at what relative velocity the analysis should use the new nonlinear theory in place of the existing linear theory. The nonlinear algorithm was also compared to a known exact solution for the probability of collision between two objects when the relative motion is strictly circular and the error covariance is spherically symmetric. Figure I shows preliminary results from this comparison by plotting the probabilities calculated from the new algorithm and those from the exact solution versus the Hard Body Radius to Covariance ratio. These results show about 5% error when the Hard Body Radius is equal to one half the spherical covariance magnitude. The algorithm was then combined with a high fidelity orbit state and error covariance propagator into a useful tool for analyzing low relative velocity nonlinear relative trajectories. The high fidelity propagator is capable of using atmospheric drag, central body gravitational, solar radiation, and third body forces to provide accurate prediction of the relative trajectories and covariance evolution. The covariance propagator also includes a process noise model to ensure realistic evolutions of the error covariance. This paper will describe the integration of the nonlinear probability algorithm and the propagators into a useful collision assessment tool. Finally, a hypothetical case study involving a low relative velocity conjunction between members of the Earth Observation System constellation will be presented.

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Logue, Daniel R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which maximizes the use of available resources. Increased implementation of approaches that consider detection error promote ecological advancements and conservation and management decisions that are better informed.

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

A method to compute SEU fault probabilities in memory arrays with error correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gercek, Gokhan

1994-01-01

With the increasing packing densities in VLSI technology, Single Event Upsets (SEU) due to cosmic radiations are becoming more of a critical issue in the design of space avionics systems. In this paper, a method is introduced to compute the fault (mishap) probability for a computer memory of size M words. It is assumed that a Hamming code is used for each word to provide single error correction. It is also assumed that every time a memory location is read, single errors are corrected. Memory is read randomly whose distribution is assumed to be known. In such a scenario, a mishap is defined as two SEU's corrupting the same memory location prior to a read. The paper introduces a method to compute the overall mishap probability for the entire memory for a mission duration of T hours.

Effects of track and threat information on judgments of hurricane strike probability.

PubMed

Wu, Hao-Che; Lindell, Michael K; Prater, Carla S; Samuelson, Charles D

2014-06-01

Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone-a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Environmental monitoring and assessment of landscape dynamics in southern coast of the Caspian Sea through intensity analysis and imprecise land-use data.

PubMed

Hasani, Mohammad; Sakieh, Yousef; Dezhkam, Sadeq; Ardakani, Tahereh; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul

2017-04-01

A hierarchical intensity analysis of land-use change is applied to evaluate the dynamics of a coupled urban coastal system in Rasht County, Iran. Temporal land-use layers of 1987, 1999, and 2011 are employed, while spatial accuracy metrics are only available for 2011 data (overall accuracy of 94%). The errors in 1987 and 1999 layers are unknown, which can influence the accuracy of temporal change information. Such data were employed to examine the size and the type of errors that could justify deviations from uniform change intensities. Accordingly, errors comprising 3.31 and 7.47% of 1999 and 2011 maps, respectively, could explain all differences from uniform gains and errors including 5.21 and 1.81% of 1987 and 1999 maps, respectively, could explain all deviations from uniform losses. Additional historical information is also applied for uncertainty assessment and to separate probable map errors from actual land-use changes. In this regard, historical processes in Rasht County can explain different types of transition that are either consistent or inconsistent to known processes. The intensity analysis assisted in identification of systematic transitions and detection of competitive categories, which cannot be investigated through conventional change detection methods. Based on results, built-up area is the most active gaining category in the area and wetland category with less areal extent is more sensitive to intense land-use change processes. Uncertainty assessment results also indicated that there are no considerable classification errors in temporal land-use data and these imprecise layers can reliably provide implications for informed decision making.

Assessment and Verification of SLS Block 1-B Exploration Upper Stage State and Stage Disposal Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patrick, Sean; Oliver, Emerson

2018-01-01

One of the SLS Navigation System's key performance requirements is a constraint on the payload system's delta-v allocation to correct for insertion errors due to vehicle state uncertainty at payload separation. The SLS navigation team has developed a Delta-Delta-V analysis approach to assess the effect on trajectory correction maneuver (TCM) design needed to correct for navigation errors. This approach differs from traditional covariance analysis based methods and makes no assumptions with regard to the propagation of the state dynamics. This allows for consideration of non-linearity in the propagation of state uncertainties. The Delta-Delta-V analysis approach re-optimizes perturbed SLS mission trajectories by varying key mission states in accordance with an assumed state error. The state error is developed from detailed vehicle 6-DOF Monte Carlo analysis or generated using covariance analysis. These perturbed trajectories are compared to a nominal trajectory to determine necessary TCM design. To implement this analysis approach, a tool set was developed which combines the functionality of a 3-DOF trajectory optimization tool, Copernicus, and a detailed 6-DOF vehicle simulation tool, Marshall Aerospace Vehicle Representation in C (MAVERIC). In addition to delta-v allocation constraints on SLS navigation performance, SLS mission requirement dictate successful upper stage disposal. Due to engine and propellant constraints, the SLS Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) must dispose into heliocentric space by means of a lunar fly-by maneuver. As with payload delta-v allocation, upper stage disposal maneuvers must place the EUS on a trajectory that maximizes the probability of achieving a heliocentric orbit post Lunar fly-by considering all sources of vehicle state uncertainty prior to the maneuver. To ensure disposal, the SLS navigation team has developed an analysis approach to derive optimal disposal guidance targets. This approach maximizes the state error covariance prior to the maneuver to develop and re-optimize a nominal disposal maneuver (DM) target that, if achieved, would maximize the potential for successful upper stage disposal. For EUS disposal analysis, a set of two tools was developed. The first considers only the nominal pre-disposal maneuver state, vehicle constraints, and an a priori estimate of the state error covariance. In the analysis, the optimal nominal disposal target is determined. This is performed by re-formulating the trajectory optimization to consider constraints on the eigenvectors of the error ellipse applied to the nominal trajectory. A bisection search methodology is implemented in the tool to refine these dispersions resulting in the maximum dispersion feasible for successful disposal via lunar fly-by. Success is defined based on the probability that the vehicle will not impact the lunar surface and will achieve a characteristic energy (C3) relative to the Earth such that it is no longer in the Earth-Moon system. The second tool propagates post-disposal maneuver states to determine the success of disposal for provided trajectory achieved states. This is performed using the optimized nominal target within the 6-DOF vehicle simulation. This paper will discuss the application of the Delta-Delta-V analysis approach for performance evaluation as well as trajectory re-optimization so as to demonstrate the system's capability in meeting performance constraints. Additionally, further discussion of the implementation of assessing disposal analysis will be provided.

Multiple statistical tests: Lessons from a d20.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R

2016-01-01

Statistical analyses are often conducted with α= .05. When multiple statistical tests are conducted, this procedure needs to be adjusted to compensate for the otherwise inflated Type I error. In some instances in tabletop gaming, sometimes it is desired to roll a 20-sided die (or 'd20') twice and take the greater outcome. Here I draw from probability theory and the case of a d20, where the probability of obtaining any specific outcome is (1)/ 20, to determine the probability of obtaining a specific outcome (Type-I error) at least once across repeated, independent statistical tests.

The price of complexity in financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; May, Robert M.; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E.

2016-09-01

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises.

The price of complexity in financial networks.

PubMed

Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; May, Robert M; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E

2016-09-06

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises.

Error rates in forensic DNA analysis: definition, numbers, impact and communication.

PubMed

Kloosterman, Ate; Sjerps, Marjan; Quak, Astrid

2014-09-01

Forensic DNA casework is currently regarded as one of the most important types of forensic evidence, and important decisions in intelligence and justice are based on it. However, errors occasionally occur and may have very serious consequences. In other domains, error rates have been defined and published. The forensic domain is lagging behind concerning this transparency for various reasons. In this paper we provide definitions and observed frequencies for different types of errors at the Human Biological Traces Department of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) over the years 2008-2012. Furthermore, we assess their actual and potential impact and describe how the NFI deals with the communication of these numbers to the legal justice system. We conclude that the observed relative frequency of quality failures is comparable to studies from clinical laboratories and genetic testing centres. Furthermore, this frequency is constant over the five-year study period. The most common causes of failures related to the laboratory process were contamination and human error. Most human errors could be corrected, whereas gross contamination in crime samples often resulted in irreversible consequences. Hence this type of contamination is identified as the most significant source of error. Of the known contamination incidents, most were detected by the NFI quality control system before the report was issued to the authorities, and thus did not lead to flawed decisions like false convictions. However in a very limited number of cases crucial errors were detected after the report was issued, sometimes with severe consequences. Many of these errors were made in the post-analytical phase. The error rates reported in this paper are useful for quality improvement and benchmarking, and contribute to an open research culture that promotes public trust. However, they are irrelevant in the context of a particular case. Here case-specific probabilities of undetected errors are needed. These should be reported, separately from the match probability, when requested by the court or when there are internal or external indications for error. It should also be made clear that there are various other issues to consider, like DNA transfer. Forensic statistical models, in particular Bayesian networks, may be useful to take the various uncertainties into account and demonstrate their effects on the evidential value of the forensic DNA results. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of random element displacement on DOA estimates obtained with (Khatri-Rao-)root-MUSIC.

PubMed

Inghelbrecht, Veronique; Verhaevert, Jo; van Hecke, Tanja; Rogier, Hendrik

2014-11-11

Although a wide range of direction of arrival (DOA) estimation algorithms has been described for a diverse range of array configurations, no specific stochastic analysis framework has been established to assess the probability density function of the error on DOA estimates due to random errors in the array geometry. Therefore, we propose a stochastic collocation method that relies on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion to connect the statistical distribution of random position errors to the resulting distribution of the DOA estimates. We apply this technique to the conventional root-MUSIC and the Khatri-Rao-root-MUSIC methods. According to Monte-Carlo simulations, this novel approach yields a speedup by a factor of more than 100 in terms of CPU-time for a one-dimensional case and by a factor of 56 for a two-dimensional case.

A Parallel Decoding Algorithm for Short Polar Codes Based on Error Checking and Correcting

PubMed Central

Pan, Xiaofei; Pan, Kegang; Ye, Zhan; Gong, Chao

2014-01-01

We propose a parallel decoding algorithm based on error checking and correcting to improve the performance of the short polar codes. In order to enhance the error-correcting capacity of the decoding algorithm, we first derive the error-checking equations generated on the basis of the frozen nodes, and then we introduce the method to check the errors in the input nodes of the decoder by the solutions of these equations. In order to further correct those checked errors, we adopt the method of modifying the probability messages of the error nodes with constant values according to the maximization principle. Due to the existence of multiple solutions of the error-checking equations, we formulate a CRC-aided optimization problem of finding the optimal solution with three different target functions, so as to improve the accuracy of error checking. Besides, in order to increase the throughput of decoding, we use a parallel method based on the decoding tree to calculate probability messages of all the nodes in the decoder. Numerical results show that the proposed decoding algorithm achieves better performance than that of some existing decoding algorithms with the same code length. PMID:25540813

MASTER: a model to improve and standardize clinical breakpoints for antimicrobial susceptibility testing using forecast probabilities.

PubMed

Blöchliger, Nicolas; Keller, Peter M; Böttger, Erik C; Hombach, Michael

2017-09-01

The procedure for setting clinical breakpoints (CBPs) for antimicrobial susceptibility has been poorly standardized with respect to population data, pharmacokinetic parameters and clinical outcome. Tools to standardize CBP setting could result in improved antibiogram forecast probabilities. We propose a model to estimate probabilities for methodological categorization errors and defined zones of methodological uncertainty (ZMUs), i.e. ranges of zone diameters that cannot reliably be classified. The impact of ZMUs on methodological error rates was used for CBP optimization. The model distinguishes theoretical true inhibition zone diameters from observed diameters, which suffer from methodological variation. True diameter distributions are described with a normal mixture model. The model was fitted to observed inhibition zone diameters of clinical Escherichia coli strains. Repeated measurements for a quality control strain were used to quantify methodological variation. For 9 of 13 antibiotics analysed, our model predicted error rates of < 0.1% applying current EUCAST CBPs. Error rates were > 0.1% for ampicillin, cefoxitin, cefuroxime and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid. Increasing the susceptible CBP (cefoxitin) and introducing ZMUs (ampicillin, cefuroxime, amoxicillin/clavulanic acid) decreased error rates to < 0.1%. ZMUs contained low numbers of isolates for ampicillin and cefuroxime (3% and 6%), whereas the ZMU for amoxicillin/clavulanic acid contained 41% of all isolates and was considered not practical. We demonstrate that CBPs can be improved and standardized by minimizing methodological categorization error rates. ZMUs may be introduced if an intermediate zone is not appropriate for pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic or drug dosing reasons. Optimized CBPs will provide a standardized antibiotic susceptibility testing interpretation at a defined level of probability. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Performance of Noncoherent Orthogonal M-FSK in the Presence of Timing and Frequency Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinedi, Sami; Simon, Marvin K.; Raphaeli, Dan

1993-01-01

Practical M-FSK systems experience a combination of time and frequency offsets (errors). This paper assesses the deleterious effect of these offsets, first individually and then combined, on the average bit error probability performance of the system.

Bayesian learning for spatial filtering in an EEG-based brain-computer interface.

PubMed

Zhang, Haihong; Yang, Huijuan; Guan, Cuntai

2013-07-01

Spatial filtering for EEG feature extraction and classification is an important tool in brain-computer interface. However, there is generally no established theory that links spatial filtering directly to Bayes classification error. To address this issue, this paper proposes and studies a Bayesian analysis theory for spatial filtering in relation to Bayes error. Following the maximum entropy principle, we introduce a gamma probability model for describing single-trial EEG power features. We then formulate and analyze the theoretical relationship between Bayes classification error and the so-called Rayleigh quotient, which is a function of spatial filters and basically measures the ratio in power features between two classes. This paper also reports our extensive study that examines the theory and its use in classification, using three publicly available EEG data sets and state-of-the-art spatial filtering techniques and various classifiers. Specifically, we validate the positive relationship between Bayes error and Rayleigh quotient in real EEG power features. Finally, we demonstrate that the Bayes error can be practically reduced by applying a new spatial filter with lower Rayleigh quotient.

Hazard Function Estimation with Cause-of-Death Data Missing at Random.

PubMed

Wang, Qihua; Dinse, Gregg E; Liu, Chunling

2012-04-01

Hazard function estimation is an important part of survival analysis. Interest often centers on estimating the hazard function associated with a particular cause of death. We propose three nonparametric kernel estimators for the hazard function, all of which are appropriate when death times are subject to random censorship and censoring indicators can be missing at random. Specifically, we present a regression surrogate estimator, an imputation estimator, and an inverse probability weighted estimator. All three estimators are uniformly strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We derive asymptotic representations of the mean squared error and the mean integrated squared error for these estimators and we discuss a data-driven bandwidth selection method. A simulation study, conducted to assess finite sample behavior, demonstrates that the proposed hazard estimators perform relatively well. We illustrate our methods with an analysis of some vascular disease data.

Observation of non-classical correlations in sequential measurements of photon polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yutaro; Iinuma, Masataka; Hofmann, Holger F.

2016-10-01

A sequential measurement of two non-commuting quantum observables results in a joint probability distribution for all output combinations that can be explained in terms of an initial joint quasi-probability of the non-commuting observables, modified by the resolution errors and back-action of the initial measurement. Here, we show that the error statistics of a sequential measurement of photon polarization performed at different measurement strengths can be described consistently by an imaginary correlation between the statistics of resolution and back-action. The experimental setup was designed to realize variable strength measurements with well-controlled imaginary correlation between the statistical errors caused by the initial measurement of diagonal polarizations, followed by a precise measurement of the horizontal/vertical polarization. We perform the experimental characterization of an elliptically polarized input state and show that the same complex joint probability distribution is obtained at any measurement strength.

The Limits of Coding with Joint Constraints on Detected and Undetected Error Rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolinar, Sam; Andrews, Kenneth; Pollara, Fabrizio; Divsalar, Dariush

2008-01-01

We develop a remarkably tight upper bound on the performance of a parameterized family of bounded angle maximum-likelihood (BA-ML) incomplete decoders. The new bound for this class of incomplete decoders is calculated from the code's weight enumerator, and is an extension of Poltyrev-type bounds developed for complete ML decoders. This bound can also be applied to bound the average performance of random code ensembles in terms of an ensemble average weight enumerator. We also formulate conditions defining a parameterized family of optimal incomplete decoders, defined to minimize both the total codeword error probability and the undetected error probability for any fixed capability of the decoder to detect errors. We illustrate the gap between optimal and BA-ML incomplete decoding via simulation of a small code.

Thyroid cancer following scalp irradiation: a reanalysis accounting for uncertainty in dosimetry.

PubMed

Schafer, D W; Lubin, J H; Ron, E; Stovall, M; Carroll, R J

2001-09-01

In the 1940s and 1950s, over 20,000 children in Israel were treated for tinea capitis (scalp ringworm) by irradiation to induce epilation. Follow-up studies showed that the radiation exposure was associated with the development of malignant thyroid neoplasms. Despite this clear evidence of an effect, the magnitude of the dose-response relationship is much less clear because of probable errors in individual estimates of dose to the thyroid gland. Such errors have the potential to bias dose-response estimation, a potential that was not widely appreciated at the time of the original analyses. We revisit this issue, describing in detail how errors in dosimetry might occur, and we develop a new dose-response model that takes the uncertainties of the dosimetry into account. Our model for the uncertainty in dosimetry is a complex and new variant of the classical multiplicative Berkson error model, having components of classical multiplicative measurement error as well as missing data. Analysis of the tinea capitis data suggests that measurement error in the dosimetry has only a negligible effect on dose-response estimation and inference as well as on the modifying effect of age at exposure.

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions

PubMed Central

Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents. PMID:28793348

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

PubMed

Wang, Hetang; Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.

Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Stuart G.

2013-05-01

Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

Transmission of trisomy decreases with maternal age in mouse models of Down syndrome, mirroring a phenomenon in human Down syndrome mothers.

PubMed

Stern, Shani; Biron, David; Moses, Elisha

2016-07-11

Down syndrome incidence in humans increases dramatically with maternal age. This is mainly the result of increased meiotic errors, but factors such as differences in abortion rate may play a role as well. Since the meiotic error rate increases almost exponentially after a certain age, its contribution to the overall incidence aneuploidy may mask the contribution of other processes. To focus on such selection mechanisms we investigated transmission in trisomic females, using data from mouse models and from Down syndrome humans. In trisomic females the a-priori probability for trisomy is independent of meiotic errors and thus approximately constant in the early embryo. Despite this, the rate of transmission of the extra chromosome decreases with age in females of the Ts65Dn and, as we show, for the Tc1 mouse models for Down syndrome. Evaluating progeny of 73 Tc1 births and 112 Ts65Dn births from females aged 130 days to 250 days old showed that both models exhibit a 3-fold reduction of the probability to transmit the trisomy with increased maternal ageing. This is concurrent with a 2-fold reduction of litter size with maternal ageing. Furthermore, analysis of previously reported 30 births in Down syndrome women shows a similar tendency with an almost three fold reduction in the probability to have a Down syndrome child between a 20 and 30 years old Down syndrome woman. In the two types of mice models for Down syndrome that were used for this study, and in human Down syndrome, older females have significantly lower probability to transmit the trisomy to the offspring. Our findings, taken together with previous reports of decreased supportive environment of the older uterus, add support to the notion that an older uterus negatively selects the less fit trisomic embryos.

The price of complexity in financial networks

PubMed Central

May, Robert M.; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E.

2016-01-01

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises. PMID:27555583

SPECIAL ISSUE ON OPTICAL PROCESSING OF INFORMATION: Analysis of the precision parameters of an optoelectronic vector-matrix processor of digital information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odinokov, S. B.; Petrov, A. V.

1995-10-01

Mathematical models of components of a vector-matrix optoelectronic multiplier are considered. Perturbing factors influencing a real optoelectronic system — noise and errors of radiation sources and detectors, nonlinearity of an analogue—digital converter, nonideal optical systems — are taken into account. Analytic expressions are obtained for relating the precision of such a multiplier to the probability of an error amounting to one bit, to the parameters describing the quality of the multiplier components, and to the quality of the optical system of the processor. Various methods of increasing the dynamic range of a multiplier are considered at the technical systems level.

Gaussian Hypothesis Testing and Quantum Illumination.

PubMed

Wilde, Mark M; Tomamichel, Marco; Lloyd, Seth; Berta, Mario

2017-09-22

Quantum hypothesis testing is one of the most basic tasks in quantum information theory and has fundamental links with quantum communication and estimation theory. In this paper, we establish a formula that characterizes the decay rate of the minimal type-II error probability in a quantum hypothesis test of two Gaussian states given a fixed constraint on the type-I error probability. This formula is a direct function of the mean vectors and covariance matrices of the quantum Gaussian states in question. We give an application to quantum illumination, which is the task of determining whether there is a low-reflectivity object embedded in a target region with a bright thermal-noise bath. For the asymmetric-error setting, we find that a quantum illumination transmitter can achieve an error probability exponent stronger than a coherent-state transmitter of the same mean photon number, and furthermore, that it requires far fewer trials to do so. This occurs when the background thermal noise is either low or bright, which means that a quantum advantage is even easier to witness than in the symmetric-error setting because it occurs for a larger range of parameters. Going forward from here, we expect our formula to have applications in settings well beyond those considered in this paper, especially to quantum communication tasks involving quantum Gaussian channels.

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.; Qi, S.L.

2007-01-01

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Network problem threshold

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gejji, Raghvendra, R.

1992-01-01

Network transmission errors such as collisions, CRC errors, misalignment, etc. are statistical in nature. Although errors can vary randomly, a high level of errors does indicate specific network problems, e.g. equipment failure. In this project, we have studied the random nature of collisions theoretically as well as by gathering statistics, and established a numerical threshold above which a network problem is indicated with high probability.

Fall 2014 SEI Research Review Probabilistic Analysis of Time Sensitive Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-28

Osmosis SMC Tool Osmosis is a tool for Statistical Model Checking (SMC) with Semantic Importance Sampling. • Input model is written in subset of C...ASSERT() statements in model indicate conditions that must hold. • Input probability distributions defined by the user. • Osmosis returns the...on: – Target relative error, or – Set number of simulations Osmosis Main Algorithm 1 http://dreal.cs.cmu.edu/ (?⃑?): Indicator

Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

PubMed Central

Crawford, Forrest W.; Suchard, Marc A.

2011-01-01

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with n current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate λn and a particle dies with instantaneous rate μn. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics. PMID:21984359

Influence of conversion on the location of points and lines: The change of location entropy and the probability of a vector point inside the converted grid point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Nan

2018-03-01

Conversion of points or lines from vector to grid format, or vice versa, is the first operation required for most spatial analysis. Conversion, however, usually causes the location of points or lines to change, which influences the reliability of the results of spatial analysis or even results in analysis errors. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the change of the location of points and lines during conversion using the concepts of probability and entropy. This paper shows that when a vector point is converted to a grid point, the vector point may be outside or inside the grid point. This paper deduces a formula for computing the probability that the vector point is inside the grid point. It was found that the probability increased with the side length of the grid and with the variances of the coordinates of the vector point. In addition, the location entropy of points and lines are defined in this paper. Formulae for computing the change of the location entropy during conversion are deduced. The probability mentioned above and the change of location entropy may be used to evaluate the location reliability of points and lines in Geographic Information Systems and may be used to choose an appropriate range of the side length of grids before conversion. The results of this study may help scientists and users to avoid mistakes caused by the change of location during conversion as well as in spatial decision and analysis.

Bias analysis applied to Agricultural Health Study publications to estimate non-random sources of uncertainty.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L

2007-11-26

The associations of pesticide exposure with disease outcomes are estimated without the benefit of a randomized design. For this reason and others, these studies are susceptible to systematic errors. I analyzed studies of the associations between alachlor and glyphosate exposure and cancer incidence, both derived from the Agricultural Health Study cohort, to quantify the bias and uncertainty potentially attributable to systematic error. For each study, I identified the prominent result and important sources of systematic error that might affect it. I assigned probability distributions to the bias parameters that allow quantification of the bias, drew a value at random from each assigned distribution, and calculated the estimate of effect adjusted for the biases. By repeating the draw and adjustment process over multiple iterations, I generated a frequency distribution of adjusted results, from which I obtained a point estimate and simulation interval. These methods were applied without access to the primary record-level dataset. The conventional estimates of effect associating alachlor and glyphosate exposure with cancer incidence were likely biased away from the null and understated the uncertainty by quantifying only random error. For example, the conventional p-value for a test of trend in the alachlor study equaled 0.02, whereas fewer than 20% of the bias analysis iterations yielded a p-value of 0.02 or lower. Similarly, the conventional fully-adjusted result associating glyphosate exposure with multiple myleoma equaled 2.6 with 95% confidence interval of 0.7 to 9.4. The frequency distribution generated by the bias analysis yielded a median hazard ratio equal to 1.5 with 95% simulation interval of 0.4 to 8.9, which was 66% wider than the conventional interval. Bias analysis provides a more complete picture of true uncertainty than conventional frequentist statistical analysis accompanied by a qualitative description of study limitations. The latter approach is likely to lead to overconfidence regarding the potential for causal associations, whereas the former safeguards against such overinterpretations. Furthermore, such analyses, once programmed, allow rapid implementation of alternative assignments of probability distributions to the bias parameters, so elevate the plane of discussion regarding study bias from characterizing studies as "valid" or "invalid" to a critical and quantitative discussion of sources of uncertainty.

Statistical Reporting Errors and Collaboration on Statistical Analyses in Psychological Science.

PubMed

Veldkamp, Coosje L S; Nuijten, Michèle B; Dominguez-Alvarez, Linda; van Assen, Marcel A L M; Wicherts, Jelte M

2014-01-01

Statistical analysis is error prone. A best practice for researchers using statistics would therefore be to share data among co-authors, allowing double-checking of executed tasks just as co-pilots do in aviation. To document the extent to which this 'co-piloting' currently occurs in psychology, we surveyed the authors of 697 articles published in six top psychology journals and asked them whether they had collaborated on four aspects of analyzing data and reporting results, and whether the described data had been shared between the authors. We acquired responses for 49.6% of the articles and found that co-piloting on statistical analysis and reporting results is quite uncommon among psychologists, while data sharing among co-authors seems reasonably but not completely standard. We then used an automated procedure to study the prevalence of statistical reporting errors in the articles in our sample and examined the relationship between reporting errors and co-piloting. Overall, 63% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent with the reported test statistic and the accompanying degrees of freedom, and 20% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent to such a degree that it may have affected decisions about statistical significance. Overall, the probability that a given p-value was inconsistent was over 10%. Co-piloting was not found to be associated with reporting errors.

Statistical Reporting Errors and Collaboration on Statistical Analyses in Psychological Science

PubMed Central

Veldkamp, Coosje L. S.; Nuijten, Michèle B.; Dominguez-Alvarez, Linda; van Assen, Marcel A. L. M.; Wicherts, Jelte M.

2014-01-01

Statistical analysis is error prone. A best practice for researchers using statistics would therefore be to share data among co-authors, allowing double-checking of executed tasks just as co-pilots do in aviation. To document the extent to which this ‘co-piloting’ currently occurs in psychology, we surveyed the authors of 697 articles published in six top psychology journals and asked them whether they had collaborated on four aspects of analyzing data and reporting results, and whether the described data had been shared between the authors. We acquired responses for 49.6% of the articles and found that co-piloting on statistical analysis and reporting results is quite uncommon among psychologists, while data sharing among co-authors seems reasonably but not completely standard. We then used an automated procedure to study the prevalence of statistical reporting errors in the articles in our sample and examined the relationship between reporting errors and co-piloting. Overall, 63% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent with the reported test statistic and the accompanying degrees of freedom, and 20% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent to such a degree that it may have affected decisions about statistical significance. Overall, the probability that a given p-value was inconsistent was over 10%. Co-piloting was not found to be associated with reporting errors. PMID:25493918

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A computer-controlled instrumentation system for third octave analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faulcon, N. D.; Monteith, J. H.

1978-01-01

An instrumentation system is described which employs a minicomputer, a one-third octave band analyzer, and a time code/tape search unit for the automatic control and analysis of third-octave data. With this system the information necessary for data adjustment is formatted in such a way as to eliminate much operator interface, thereby substantially reducing the probability for error. A description of a program for the calculation of effective perceived noise level from aircraft noise data is included as an example of how this system can be used.

Performance analysis for mixed FSO/RF Nakagami-m and Exponentiated Weibull dual-hop airborne systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Zhao; Shang-hong, Zhao; Wei-hu, Zhao; Ke-fan, Chen

2017-06-01

In this paper, the performances of mixed free-space optical (FSO)/radio frequency (RF) systems are presented based on the decode-and-forward relaying. The Exponentiated Weibull fading channel with pointing error effect is adopted for the atmospheric fluctuation of FSO channel and the RF link undergoes the Nakagami-m fading. We derived the analytical expression for cumulative distribution function (CDF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The novel mathematical presentations of outage probability and average bit-error-rate (BER) are developed based on the Meijer's G function. The analytical results show an accurately match to the Monte-Carlo simulation results. The outage and BER performance for the mixed system by decode-and-forward relay are investigated considering atmospheric turbulence and pointing error condition. The effect of aperture averaging is evaluated in all atmospheric turbulence conditions as well.

Use of Bayesian Inference in Crystallographic Structure Refinement via Full Diffraction Profile Analysis

PubMed Central

Fancher, Chris M.; Han, Zhen; Levin, Igor; Page, Katharine; Reich, Brian J.; Smith, Ralph C.; Wilson, Alyson G.; Jones, Jacob L.

2016-01-01

A Bayesian inference method for refining crystallographic structures is presented. The distribution of model parameters is stochastically sampled using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Posterior probability distributions are constructed for all model parameters to properly quantify uncertainty by appropriately modeling the heteroskedasticity and correlation of the error structure. The proposed method is demonstrated by analyzing a National Institute of Standards and Technology silicon standard reference material. The results obtained by Bayesian inference are compared with those determined by Rietveld refinement. Posterior probability distributions of model parameters provide both estimates and uncertainties. The new method better estimates the true uncertainties in the model as compared to the Rietveld method. PMID:27550221

Non-Parametric Collision Probability for Low-Velocity Encounters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2007-01-01

An implicit, but not necessarily obvious, assumption in all of the current techniques for assessing satellite collision probability is that the relative position uncertainty is perfectly correlated in time. If there is any mis-modeling of the dynamics in the propagation of the relative position error covariance matrix, time-wise de-correlation of the uncertainty will increase the probability of collision over a given time interval. The paper gives some examples that illustrate this point. This paper argues that, for the present, Monte Carlo analysis is the best available tool for handling low-velocity encounters, and suggests some techniques for addressing the issues just described. One proposal is for the use of a non-parametric technique that is widely used in actuarial and medical studies. The other suggestion is that accurate process noise models be used in the Monte Carlo trials to which the non-parametric estimate is applied. A further contribution of this paper is a description of how the time-wise decorrelation of uncertainty increases the probability of collision.

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Quantum-state comparison and discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, A.; Hashimoto, T.; Horibe, M.

2018-05-01

We investigate the performance of discrimination strategy in the comparison task of known quantum states. In the discrimination strategy, one infers whether or not two quantum systems are in the same state on the basis of the outcomes of separate discrimination measurements on each system. In some cases with more than two possible states, the optimal strategy in minimum-error comparison is that one should infer the two systems are in different states without any measurement, implying that the discrimination strategy performs worse than the trivial "no-measurement" strategy. We present a sufficient condition for this phenomenon to happen. For two pure states with equal prior probabilities, we determine the optimal comparison success probability with an error margin, which interpolates the minimum-error and unambiguous comparison. We find that the discrimination strategy is not optimal except for the minimum-error case.

Type-II generalized family-wise error rate formulas with application to sample size determination.

PubMed

Delorme, Phillipe; de Micheaux, Pierre Lafaye; Liquet, Benoit; Riou, Jérémie

2016-07-20

Multiple endpoints are increasingly used in clinical trials. The significance of some of these clinical trials is established if at least r null hypotheses are rejected among m that are simultaneously tested. The usual approach in multiple hypothesis testing is to control the family-wise error rate, which is defined as the probability that at least one type-I error is made. More recently, the q-generalized family-wise error rate has been introduced to control the probability of making at least q false rejections. For procedures controlling this global type-I error rate, we define a type-II r-generalized family-wise error rate, which is directly related to the r-power defined as the probability of rejecting at least r false null hypotheses. We obtain very general power formulas that can be used to compute the sample size for single-step and step-wise procedures. These are implemented in our R package rPowerSampleSize available on the CRAN, making them directly available to end users. Complexities of the formulas are presented to gain insight into computation time issues. Comparison with Monte Carlo strategy is also presented. We compute sample sizes for two clinical trials involving multiple endpoints: one designed to investigate the effectiveness of a drug against acute heart failure and the other for the immunogenicity of a vaccine strategy against pneumococcus. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multiple symbol partially coherent detection of MPSK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, M. K.; Divsalar, D.

1992-01-01

It is shown that by using the known (or estimated) value of carrier tracking loop signal to noise ratio (SNR) in the decision metric, it is possible to improve the error probability performance of a partially coherent multiple phase-shift-keying (MPSK) system relative to that corresponding to the commonly used ideal coherent decision rule. Using a maximum-likeihood approach, an optimum decision metric is derived and shown to take the form of a weighted sum of the ideal coherent decision metric (i.e., correlation) and the noncoherent decision metric which is optimum for differential detection of MPSK. The performance of a receiver based on this optimum decision rule is derived and shown to provide continued improvement with increasing length of observation interval (data symbol sequence length). Unfortunately, increasing the observation length does not eliminate the error floor associated with the finite loop SNR. Nevertheless, in the limit of infinite observation length, the average error probability performance approaches the algebraic sum of the error floor and the performance of ideal coherent detection, i.e., at any error probability above the error floor, there is no degradation due to the partial coherence. It is shown that this limiting behavior is virtually achievable with practical size observation lengths. Furthermore, the performance is quite insensitive to mismatch between the estimate of loop SNR (e.g., obtained from measurement) fed to the decision metric and its true value. These results may be of use in low-cost Earth-orbiting or deep-space missions employing coded modulations.

Assessment of Mental, Emotional and Physical Stress through Analysis of Physiological Signals Using Smartphones.

PubMed

Mohino-Herranz, Inma; Gil-Pita, Roberto; Ferreira, Javier; Rosa-Zurera, Manuel; Seoane, Fernando

2015-10-08

Determining the stress level of a subject in real time could be of special interest in certain professional activities to allow the monitoring of soldiers, pilots, emergency personnel and other professionals responsible for human lives. Assessment of current mental fitness for executing a task at hand might avoid unnecessary risks. To obtain this knowledge, two physiological measurements were recorded in this work using customized non-invasive wearable instrumentation that measures electrocardiogram (ECG) and thoracic electrical bioimpedance (TEB) signals. The relevant information from each measurement is extracted via evaluation of a reduced set of selected features. These features are primarily obtained from filtered and processed versions of the raw time measurements with calculations of certain statistical and descriptive parameters. Selection of the reduced set of features was performed using genetic algorithms, thus constraining the computational cost of the real-time implementation. Different classification approaches have been studied, but neural networks were chosen for this investigation because they represent a good tradeoff between the intelligence of the solution and computational complexity. Three different application scenarios were considered. In the first scenario, the proposed system is capable of distinguishing among different types of activity with a 21.2% probability error, for activities coded as neutral, emotional, mental and physical. In the second scenario, the proposed solution distinguishes among the three different emotional states of neutral, sadness and disgust, with a probability error of 4.8%. In the third scenario, the system is able to distinguish between low mental load and mental overload with a probability error of 32.3%. The computational cost was calculated, and the solution was implemented in commercially available Android-based smartphones. The results indicate that execution of such a monitoring solution is negligible compared to the nominal computational load of current smartphones.

Variance estimation when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with survival analysis.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2016-12-30

Propensity score methods are used to reduce the effects of observed confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments or exposures. A popular method of using the propensity score is inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). When using this method, a weight is calculated for each subject that is equal to the inverse of the probability of receiving the treatment that was actually received. These weights are then incorporated into the analyses to minimize the effects of observed confounding. Previous research has found that these methods result in unbiased estimation when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes. However, conventional methods of variance estimation were shown to result in biased estimates of standard error. In this study, we conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine different methods of variance estimation when using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the effect of treatment. We considered three variance estimation methods: (i) a naïve model-based variance estimator; (ii) a robust sandwich-type variance estimator; and (iii) a bootstrap variance estimator. We considered estimation of both the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect in the treated. We found that the use of a bootstrap estimator resulted in approximately correct estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates. The other estimators resulted in biased estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with incorrect coverage rates. Our simulations were informed by a case study examining the effect of statin prescribing on mortality. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting the probability of slip in gait: methodology and distribution study.

PubMed

Gragg, Jared; Yang, James

2016-01-01

The likelihood of a slip is related to the available and required friction for a certain activity, here gait. Classical slip and fall analysis presumed that a walking surface was safe if the difference between the mean available and required friction coefficients exceeded a certain threshold. Previous research was dedicated to reformulating the classical slip and fall theory to include the stochastic variation of the available and required friction when predicting the probability of slip in gait. However, when predicting the probability of a slip, previous researchers have either ignored the variation in the required friction or assumed the available and required friction to be normally distributed. Also, there are no published results that actually give the probability of slip for various combinations of required and available frictions. This study proposes a modification to the equation for predicting the probability of slip, reducing the previous equation from a double-integral to a more convenient single-integral form. Also, a simple numerical integration technique is provided to predict the probability of slip in gait: the trapezoidal method. The effect of the random variable distributions on the probability of slip is also studied. It is shown that both the required and available friction distributions cannot automatically be assumed as being normally distributed. The proposed methods allow for any combination of distributions for the available and required friction, and numerical results are compared to analytical solutions for an error analysis. The trapezoidal method is shown to be highly accurate and efficient. The probability of slip is also shown to be sensitive to the input distributions of the required and available friction. Lastly, a critical value for the probability of slip is proposed based on the number of steps taken by an average person in a single day.

The Number of Patients and Events Required to Limit the Risk of Overestimation of Intervention Effects in Meta-Analysis—A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Thorlund, Kristian; Imberger, Georgina; Walsh, Michael; Chu, Rong; Gluud, Christian; Wetterslev, Jørn; Guyatt, Gordon; Devereaux, Philip J.; Thabane, Lehana

2011-01-01

Background Meta-analyses including a limited number of patients and events are prone to yield overestimated intervention effect estimates. While many assume bias is the cause of overestimation, theoretical considerations suggest that random error may be an equal or more frequent cause. The independent impact of random error on meta-analyzed intervention effects has not previously been explored. It has been suggested that surpassing the optimal information size (i.e., the required meta-analysis sample size) provides sufficient protection against overestimation due to random error, but this claim has not yet been validated. Methods We simulated a comprehensive array of meta-analysis scenarios where no intervention effect existed (i.e., relative risk reduction (RRR) = 0%) or where a small but possibly unimportant effect existed (RRR = 10%). We constructed different scenarios by varying the control group risk, the degree of heterogeneity, and the distribution of trial sample sizes. For each scenario, we calculated the probability of observing overestimates of RRR>20% and RRR>30% for each cumulative 500 patients and 50 events. We calculated the cumulative number of patients and events required to reduce the probability of overestimation of intervention effect to 10%, 5%, and 1%. We calculated the optimal information size for each of the simulated scenarios and explored whether meta-analyses that surpassed their optimal information size had sufficient protection against overestimation of intervention effects due to random error. Results The risk of overestimation of intervention effects was usually high when the number of patients and events was small and this risk decreased exponentially over time as the number of patients and events increased. The number of patients and events required to limit the risk of overestimation depended considerably on the underlying simulation settings. Surpassing the optimal information size generally provided sufficient protection against overestimation. Conclusions Random errors are a frequent cause of overestimation of intervention effects in meta-analyses. Surpassing the optimal information size will provide sufficient protection against overestimation. PMID:22028777

Probability Theory, Not the Very Guide of Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Juslin, Peter; Nilsson, Hakan; Winman, Anders

2009-01-01

Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against which to evaluate inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of violations of this norm include the conjunction error and base-rate neglect. Many of these phenomena require multiplicative probability integration, whereas people seem more inclined to linear additive…

Development of a Methodology to Optimally Allocate Visual Inspection Time

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

Model and then takes into account the costs of the errors. The purpose of the Alternative Model is to not make 104 costly mistakes while meeting the...James Buck, and Virgil Anderson, AIIE Transactions, Volume 11, No.4, December 1979. 26. "Inspection of Sheet Materials - Model and Data", Colin G. Drury ...worker error, the probability of inspector error, and the cost of system error. Paired comparisons of error phenomena from operational personnel are

Discrepancy-based error estimates for Quasi-Monte Carlo III. Error distributions and central limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoogland, Jiri; Kleiss, Ronald

1997-04-01

In Quasi-Monte Carlo integration, the integration error is believed to be generally smaller than in classical Monte Carlo with the same number of integration points. Using an appropriate definition of an ensemble of quasi-random point sets, we derive various results on the probability distribution of the integration error, which can be compared to the standard Central Limit Theorem for normal stochastic sampling. In many cases, a Gaussian error distribution is obtained.

Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation For Nearshore Hydrodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardani, S.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2012-12-01

Numerical models represent deterministic approaches used for the relevant physical processes in the nearshore. Complexity of the physics of the model and uncertainty involved in the model inputs compel us to apply a stochastic approach to analyze the robustness of the model. The Bayesian inverse problem is one powerful way to estimate the important input model parameters (determined by apriori sensitivity analysis) and can be used for uncertainty analysis of the outputs. Bayesian techniques can be used to find the range of most probable parameters based on the probability of the observed data and the residual errors. In this study, the effect of input data involving lateral (Neumann) boundary conditions, bathymetry and off-shore wave conditions on nearshore numerical models are considered. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a deterministic numerical model (the Delft3D modeling suite for coupled waves and flow) for the resulting uncertainty analysis of the outputs (wave height, flow velocity, mean sea level and etc.). Uncertainty analysis of outputs is performed by random sampling from the input probability distribution functions and running the model as required until convergence to the consistent results is achieved. The case study used in this analysis is the Duck94 experiment, which was conducted at the U.S. Army Field Research Facility at Duck, North Carolina, USA in the fall of 1994. The joint probability of model parameters relevant for the Duck94 experiments will be found using the Bayesian approach. We will further show that, by using Bayesian techniques to estimate the optimized model parameters as inputs and applying them for uncertainty analysis, we can obtain more consistent results than using the prior information for input data which means that the variation of the uncertain parameter will be decreased and the probability of the observed data will improve as well. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Delft3D, uncertainty analysis, Bayesian techniques, MCMC

Analysis of the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in Assessing Rounding Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weijie; Lu, Yanmin

2018-03-01

Most existing Collaborative Filtering (CF) algorithms predict a rating as the preference of an active user toward a given item, which is always a decimal fraction. Meanwhile, the actual ratings in most data sets are integers. In this paper, we discuss and demonstrate why rounding can bring different influences to these two metrics; prove that rounding is necessary in post-processing of the predicted ratings, eliminate of model prediction bias, improving the accuracy of the prediction. In addition, we also propose two new rounding approaches based on the predicted rating probability distribution, which can be used to round the predicted rating to an optimal integer rating, and get better prediction accuracy compared to the Basic Rounding approach. Extensive experiments on different data sets validate the correctness of our analysis and the effectiveness of our proposed rounding approaches.

Hazard Function Estimation with Cause-of-Death Data Missing at Random

PubMed Central

Wang, Qihua; Dinse, Gregg E.; Liu, Chunling

2010-01-01

Hazard function estimation is an important part of survival analysis. Interest often centers on estimating the hazard function associated with a particular cause of death. We propose three nonparametric kernel estimators for the hazard function, all of which are appropriate when death times are subject to random censorship and censoring indicators can be missing at random. Specifically, we present a regression surrogate estimator, an imputation estimator, and an inverse probability weighted estimator. All three estimators are uniformly strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We derive asymptotic representations of the mean squared error and the mean integrated squared error for these estimators and we discuss a data-driven bandwidth selection method. A simulation study, conducted to assess finite sample behavior, demonstrates that the proposed hazard estimators perform relatively well. We illustrate our methods with an analysis of some vascular disease data. PMID:22267874

Moderate Deviation Analysis for Classical Communication over Quantum Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chubb, Christopher T.; Tan, Vincent Y. F.; Tomamichel, Marco

2017-11-01

We analyse families of codes for classical data transmission over quantum channels that have both a vanishing probability of error and a code rate approaching capacity as the code length increases. To characterise the fundamental tradeoff between decoding error, code rate and code length for such codes we introduce a quantum generalisation of the moderate deviation analysis proposed by Altŭg and Wagner as well as Polyanskiy and Verdú. We derive such a tradeoff for classical-quantum (as well as image-additive) channels in terms of the channel capacity and the channel dispersion, giving further evidence that the latter quantity characterises the necessary backoff from capacity when transmitting finite blocks of classical data. To derive these results we also study asymmetric binary quantum hypothesis testing in the moderate deviations regime. Due to the central importance of the latter task, we expect that our techniques will find further applications in the analysis of other quantum information processing tasks.

Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, D. W.

1976-01-01

Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paielli, Russell A.; Erzberger, Heinz

1996-01-01

The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. A method is developed in this paper to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and Monte Carlo validation are presented.

Memorabeatlia: a naturalistic study of long-term memory.

PubMed

Hyman, I E; Rubin, D C

1990-03-01

Seventy-six undergraduates were given the titles and first lines of Beatles' songs and asked to recall the songs. Seven hundred and four different undergraduates were cued with one line from each of 25 Beatles' songs and asked to recall the title. The probability of recalling a line was best predicted by the number of times a line was repeated in the song and how early the line first appeared in the song. The probability of cuing to the title was best predicted by whether the line shared words with the title. Although the subjects recalled only 21% of the lines, there were very few errors in recall, and the errors rarely violated the rhythmic, poetic, or thematic constraints of the songs. Acting together, these constraints can account for the near verbatim recall observed. Fourteen subjects, who transcribed one song, made fewer and different errors than the subjects who had recalled the song, indicating that the errors in recall were not primarily the result of errors in encoding.

Quality improvement of diagnosis of the electromyography data based on statistical characteristics of the measured signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selivanova, Karina G.; Avrunin, Oleg G.; Zlepko, Sergii M.; Romanyuk, Sergii O.; Zabolotna, Natalia I.; Kotyra, Andrzej; Komada, Paweł; Smailova, Saule

2016-09-01

Research and systematization of motor disorders, taking into account the clinical and neurophysiologic phenomena, are important and actual problem of neurology. The article describes a technique for decomposing surface electromyography (EMG), using Principal Component Analysis. The decomposition is achieved by a set of algorithms that uses a specially developed for analyze EMG. The accuracy was verified by calculation of Mahalanobis distance and Probability error.

Data processing 1: Advancements in machine analysis of multispectral data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swain, P. H.

1972-01-01

Multispectral data processing procedures are outlined beginning with the data display process used to accomplish data editing and proceeding through clustering, feature selection criterion for error probability estimation, and sample clustering and sample classification. The effective utilization of large quantities of remote sensing data by formulating a three stage sampling model for evaluation of crop acreage estimates represents an improvement in determining the cost benefit relationship associated with remote sensing technology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan; Lin, Guang

In decision-making for groundwater management and contamination remediation, it is important to accurately evaluate the probability of the occurrence of a failure event. For small failure probability analysis, a large number of model evaluations are needed in the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, which is impractical for CPU-demanding models. One approach to alleviate the computational cost caused by the model evaluations is to construct a computationally inexpensive surrogate model instead. However, using a surrogate approximation can cause an extra error in the failure probability analysis. Moreover, constructing accurate surrogates is challenging for high-dimensional models, i.e., models containing many uncertain input parameters.more » To address these issues, we propose an efficient two-stage MC approach for small failure probability analysis in high-dimensional groundwater contaminant transport modeling. In the first stage, a low-dimensional representation of the original high-dimensional model is sought with Karhunen–Loève expansion and sliced inverse regression jointly, which allows for the easy construction of a surrogate with polynomial chaos expansion. Then a surrogate-based MC simulation is implemented. In the second stage, the small number of samples that are close to the failure boundary are re-evaluated with the original model, which corrects the bias introduced by the surrogate approximation. The proposed approach is tested with a numerical case study and is shown to be 100 times faster than the traditional MC approach in achieving the same level of estimation accuracy.« less

Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Eicker, A.; Forootan, E.; Springer, A.; Longuevergne, L.

2016-12-01

Using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust 'hotspot' regions of high probability of peak anomalous - i.e. with respect to the seasonal cycle - water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/mon). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hotspot regions to GRACE results, and that most exceptions are located in the Tropics. However, a simulation experiment reveals that differences observed by GRACE are statistically significant, and further error analysis suggests that by around the year 2020 it will be possible to detect temporal changes in the frequency of extreme total fluxes (i.e. combined effects of mainly precipitation and floods) for at least 10-20% of the continental area, assuming that we have a continuation of GRACE by its follow-up GRACE-FO. J. Kusche et al. (2016): Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry, Geophysical Research Letters, accepted online, doi:10.1002/2016GL069538

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Bejger, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bogan, C.; Bohe, A.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, C.; Casentini, J.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, C.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M.; Conte, A.; Conti, L.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Darman, N. S.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Engels, W.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fenyvesi, E.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H. A. G.; Gaebel, S.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Geng, P.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gordon, N. A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huang, S.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jang, H.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jian, L.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Johnson-McDaniel, N. K.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; K, Haris; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kapadia, S. J.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Kehl, M. S.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chi-Woong; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Kim, N.; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Królak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Lewis, J. B.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lousto, C. O.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magaña Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D. J.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Patrick, Z.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O. E. S.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, N. D.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strauss, N. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Heijningen, J. V.; Vano-Vinuales, A.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yablon, J.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yu, H.; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S. E.; Zweizig, J.; Boyle, M.; Brügmann, B.; Campanelli, M.; Chu, T.; Clark, M.; Haas, R.; Hemberger, D.; Hinder, I.; Kidder, L. E.; Kinsey, M.; Laguna, P.; Ossokine, S.; Pan, Y.; Röver, C.; Scheel, M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Zlochower, Y.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2016-10-01

This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015 [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016).]. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] presented parameter estimation of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and an 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here, we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).], and we quote updated component masses of 35-3+5 M⊙ and 3 0-4+3 M⊙ (where errors correspond to 90% symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate <0.65 and a secondary spin estimate <0.75 at 90% probability. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here, we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted.

Assessing flight safety differences between the United States regional and major airlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharp, Broderick H.

During 2008, the U.S. domestic airline departures exceeded 28,000 flights per day. Thirty-nine or less than 0.2 of 1% of these flights resulted in operational incidents or accidents. However, even a low percentage of airline accidents and incidents continue to cause human suffering and property loss. The charge of this study was the comparison of U.S. major and regional airline safety histories. The study spans safety events from January 1982 through December 2008. In this quantitative analysis, domestic major and regional airlines were statistically tested for their flight safety differences. Four major airlines and thirty-seven regional airlines qualified for the safety study which compared the airline groups' fatal accidents, incidents, non-fatal accidents, pilot errors, and the remaining six safety event probable cause types. The six other probable cause types are mechanical failure, weather, air traffic control, maintenance, other, and unknown causes. The National Transportation Safety Board investigated each airline safety event, and assigned a probable cause to each event. A sample of 500 events was randomly selected from the 1,391 airlines' accident and incident population. The airline groups' safety event probabilities were estimated using the least squares linear regression. A probability significance level of 5% was chosen to conclude the appropriate research question hypothesis. The airline fatal accidents and incidents probability levels were 1.2% and 0.05% respectively. These two research questions did not reach the 5% significance level threshold. Therefore, the airline groups' fatal accidents and non-destructive incidents probabilities favored the airline groups' safety differences hypothesis. The linear progression estimates for the remaining three research questions were 71.5% for non-fatal accidents, 21.8% for the pilot errors, and 7.4% significance level for the six probable causes. These research questions' linear regressions are greater than the 5% level. Consequently, these three research questions favored airline groups' safety similarities hypothesis. The study indicates the U.S. domestic major airlines were safer than the regional airlines. Ideas for potential airline safety progress can examine pilot fatigue, the airline groups' hiring policies, the government's airline oversight personnel, or the comparison of individual airline's operational policies.

Optimizer convergence and local minima errors and their clinical importance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeraj, Robert; Wu, Chuan; Mackie, Thomas R.

2003-09-01

Two of the errors common in the inverse treatment planning optimization have been investigated. The first error is the optimizer convergence error, which appears because of non-perfect convergence to the global or local solution, usually caused by a non-zero stopping criterion. The second error is the local minima error, which occurs when the objective function is not convex and/or the feasible solution space is not convex. The magnitude of the errors, their relative importance in comparison to other errors as well as their clinical significance in terms of tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) were investigated. Two inherently different optimizers, a stochastic simulated annealing and deterministic gradient method were compared on a clinical example. It was found that for typical optimization the optimizer convergence errors are rather small, especially compared to other convergence errors, e.g., convergence errors due to inaccuracy of the current dose calculation algorithms. This indicates that stopping criteria could often be relaxed leading into optimization speed-ups. The local minima errors were also found to be relatively small and typically in the range of the dose calculation convergence errors. Even for the cases where significantly higher objective function scores were obtained the local minima errors were not significantly higher. Clinical evaluation of the optimizer convergence error showed good correlation between the convergence of the clinical TCP or NTCP measures and convergence of the physical dose distribution. On the other hand, the local minima errors resulted in significantly different TCP or NTCP values (up to a factor of 2) indicating clinical importance of the local minima produced by physical optimization.

Optimizer convergence and local minima errors and their clinical importance.

PubMed

Jeraj, Robert; Wu, Chuan; Mackie, Thomas R

2003-09-07

Two of the errors common in the inverse treatment planning optimization have been investigated. The first error is the optimizer convergence error, which appears because of non-perfect convergence to the global or local solution, usually caused by a non-zero stopping criterion. The second error is the local minima error, which occurs when the objective function is not convex and/or the feasible solution space is not convex. The magnitude of the errors, their relative importance in comparison to other errors as well as their clinical significance in terms of tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) were investigated. Two inherently different optimizers, a stochastic simulated annealing and deterministic gradient method were compared on a clinical example. It was found that for typical optimization the optimizer convergence errors are rather small, especially compared to other convergence errors, e.g., convergence errors due to inaccuracy of the current dose calculation algorithms. This indicates that stopping criteria could often be relaxed leading into optimization speed-ups. The local minima errors were also found to be relatively small and typically in the range of the dose calculation convergence errors. Even for the cases where significantly higher objective function scores were obtained the local minima errors were not significantly higher. Clinical evaluation of the optimizer convergence error showed good correlation between the convergence of the clinical TCP or NTCP measures and convergence of the physical dose distribution. On the other hand, the local minima errors resulted in significantly different TCP or NTCP values (up to a factor of 2) indicating clinical importance of the local minima produced by physical optimization.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C.

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitly describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C., E-mail: g.aslanyan@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: r.easther@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: lpri691@aucklanduni.ac.nz

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitlymore » describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.« less

Automatic target recognition apparatus and method

DOEpatents

Baumgart, Chris W.; Ciarcia, Christopher A.

2000-01-01

An automatic target recognition apparatus (10) is provided, having a video camera/digitizer (12) for producing a digitized image signal (20) representing an image containing therein objects which objects are to be recognized if they meet predefined criteria. The digitized image signal (20) is processed within a video analysis subroutine (22) residing in a computer (14) in a plurality of parallel analysis chains such that the objects are presumed to be lighter in shading than the background in the image in three of the chains and further such that the objects are presumed to be darker than the background in the other three chains. In two of the chains the objects are defined by surface texture analysis using texture filter operations. In another two of the chains the objects are defined by background subtraction operations. In yet another two of the chains the objects are defined by edge enhancement processes. In each of the analysis chains a calculation operation independently determines an error factor relating to the probability that the objects are of the type which should be recognized, and a probability calculation operation combines the results of the analysis chains.

Noise Estimation and Adaptive Encoding for Asymmetric Quantum Error Correcting Codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florjanczyk, Jan; Brun, Todd; CenterQuantum Information Science; Technology Team

We present a technique that improves the performance of asymmetric quantum error correcting codes in the presence of biased qubit noise channels. Our study is motivated by considering what useful information can be learned from the statistics of syndrome measurements in stabilizer quantum error correcting codes (QECC). We consider the case of a qubit dephasing channel where the dephasing axis is unknown and time-varying. We are able to estimate the dephasing angle from the statistics of the standard syndrome measurements used in stabilizer QECC's. We use this estimate to rotate the computational basis of the code in such a way that the most likely type of error is covered by the highest distance of the asymmetric code. In particular, we use the [ [ 15 , 1 , 3 ] ] shortened Reed-Muller code which can correct one phase-flip error but up to three bit-flip errors. In our simulations, we tune the computational basis to match the estimated dephasing axis which in turn leads to a decrease in the probability of a phase-flip error. With a sufficiently accurate estimate of the dephasing axis, our memory's effective error is dominated by the much lower probability of four bit-flips. Aro MURI Grant No. W911NF-11-1-0268.

Predicting Manual Therapy Treatment Success in Patients With Chronic Ankle Instability: Improving Self-Reported Function.

PubMed

Wikstrom, Erik A; McKeon, Patrick O

2017-04-01

  Therapeutic modalities that stimulate sensory receptors around the foot-ankle complex improve chronic ankle instability (CAI)-associated impairments. However, not all patients have equal responses to these modalities. Identifying predictors of treatment success could improve clinician efficiency when treating patients with CAI.   To conduct a response analysis on existing data to identify predictors of improved self-reported function in patients with CAI.   Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled clinical trial.   Sports medicine research laboratories.   Fifty-nine patients with CAI, which was defined in accordance with the International Ankle Consortium recommendations.   Participants were randomized into 3 treatment groups (plantar massage [PM], ankle-joint mobilization [AJM], or calf stretching [CS]) that received six 5-minute treatments over 2 weeks.   Treatment success, defined as a patient exceeding the minimally clinically important difference of the Foot and Ankle Ability Measure-Sport (FAAM-S).   Patients with ≤5 recurrent sprains and ≤82.73% on the Foot and Ankle Ability Measure had a 98% probability of having a meaningful FAAM-S improvement after AJM. As well, ≥5 balance errors demonstrated 98% probability of meaningful FAAM-S improvements from AJM. Patients <22 years old and with ≤9.9 cm of dorsiflexion had a 99% probability of a meaningful FAAM-S improvement after PM. Also, those who made ≥2 single-limb-stance errors had a 98% probability of a meaningful FAAM-S improvement from PM. Patients with ≤53.1% on the FAAM-S had an 83% probability of a meaningful FAAM-S improvement after CS.   Each sensory-targeted ankle-rehabilitation strategy resulted in a unique combination of predictors of success for patients with CAI. Specific indicators of success with AJM were deficits in self-reported function, single-limb balance, and <5 previous sprains. Age, weight-bearing-dorsiflexion restrictions, and single-limb balance deficits identified patients with CAI who will respond well to PM. Assessing self-reported sport-related function can identify CAI patients who will respond positively to CS.

An all digital phase locked loop for synchronization of a sinusoidal signal embedded in white Gaussian noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddy, C. P.; Gupta, S. C.

1973-01-01

An all digital phase locked loop which tracks the phase of the incoming sinusoidal signal once per carrier cycle is proposed. The different elements and their functions and the phase lock operation are explained in detail. The nonlinear difference equations which govern the operation of the digital loop when the incoming signal is embedded in white Gaussian noise are derived, and a suitable model is specified. The performance of the digital loop is considered for the synchronization of a sinusoidal signal. For this, the noise term is suitably modelled which allows specification of the output probabilities for the two level quantizer in the loop at any given phase error. The loop filter considered increases the probability of proper phase correction. The phase error states in modulo two-pi forms a finite state Markov chain which enables the calculation of steady state probabilities, RMS phase error, transient response and mean time for cycle skipping.

Inference of emission rates from multiple sources using Bayesian probability theory.

PubMed

Yee, Eugene; Flesch, Thomas K

2010-03-01

The determination of atmospheric emission rates from multiple sources using inversion (regularized least-squares or best-fit technique) is known to be very susceptible to measurement and model errors in the problem, rendering the solution unusable. In this paper, a new perspective is offered for this problem: namely, it is argued that the problem should be addressed as one of inference rather than inversion. Towards this objective, Bayesian probability theory is used to estimate the emission rates from multiple sources. The posterior probability distribution for the emission rates is derived, accounting fully for the measurement errors in the concentration data and the model errors in the dispersion model used to interpret the data. The Bayesian inferential methodology for emission rate recovery is validated against real dispersion data, obtained from a field experiment involving various source-sensor geometries (scenarios) consisting of four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors. The recovery of discrete emission rates from three different scenarios obtained using Bayesian inference and singular value decomposition inversion are compared and contrasted.

Radar detection with the Neyman-Pearson criterion using supervised-learning-machines trained with the cross-entropy error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarabo-Amores, María-Pilar; la Mata-Moya, David de; Gil-Pita, Roberto; Rosa-Zurera, Manuel

2013-12-01

The application of supervised learning machines trained to minimize the Cross-Entropy error to radar detection is explored in this article. The detector is implemented with a learning machine that implements a discriminant function, which output is compared to a threshold selected to fix a desired probability of false alarm. The study is based on the calculation of the function the learning machine approximates to during training, and the application of a sufficient condition for a discriminant function to be used to approximate the optimum Neyman-Pearson (NP) detector. In this article, the function a supervised learning machine approximates to after being trained to minimize the Cross-Entropy error is obtained. This discriminant function can be used to implement the NP detector, which maximizes the probability of detection, maintaining the probability of false alarm below or equal to a predefined value. Some experiments about signal detection using neural networks are also presented to test the validity of the study.

Predicting balance improvements following STARS treatments in chronic ankle instability participants.

PubMed

Wikstrom, Erik A; McKeon, Patrick O

2017-04-01

Sensory Targeted Ankle Rehabilitation Strategies that stimulate sensory receptors improve postural control in chronic ankle instability participants. However, not all participants have equal responses. Therefore, identifying predictors of treatment success is needed to improve clinician efficiency when treating chronic ankle instability. Therefore, the purpose was to identify predictors of successfully improving postural control in chronic ankle instability participants. Secondary data analysis. Fifty-nine participants with self-reported chronic ankle instability participated. The condition was defined as a history of at least two episodes of "giving way" within the past 6 months; and limitations in self-reported function as measured by the Foot and Ankle Ability Measure. Participants were randomized into three treatment groups (plantar massage, ankle joint mobilization, calf stretching) that received 6, 5-min treatment sessions over a 2-week period. The main outcome measure was treatment success, defined as a participant exceeding the minimal detectable change score for a clinician-oriented single limb balance test. Participants with ≥3 balance test errors had a 73% probability of treatment success following ankle joint mobilizations. Participants with a self-reported function between limb difference <16.07% and who made >2.5 errors had a 99% probability of treatment success following plantar massage. Those who sustained ≥11 ankle sprains had a 94% treatment success probability following calf stretching. Self-reported functional deficits, worse single limb balance, and number of previous ankle sprains are important characteristics when determining if chronic ankle instability participants will have an increased probability of treatment success. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multistate dynamic site occupancy model for spatially aggregated sessile communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fukaya, Keiichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2017-01-01

Estimation of transition probabilities of sessile communities seems easy in principle but may still be difficult in practice because resampling error (i.e. a failure to resample exactly the same location at fixed points) may cause significant estimation bias. Previous studies have developed novel analytical methods to correct for this estimation bias. However, they did not consider the local structure of community composition induced by the aggregated distribution of organisms that is typically observed in sessile assemblages and is very likely to affect observations.We developed a multistate dynamic site occupancy model to estimate transition probabilities that accounts for resampling errors associated with local community structure. The model applies a nonparametric multivariate kernel smoothing methodology to the latent occupancy component to estimate the local state composition near each observation point, which is assumed to determine the probability distribution of data conditional on the occurrence of resampling error.By using computer simulations, we confirmed that an observation process that depends on local community structure may bias inferences about transition probabilities. By applying the proposed model to a real data set of intertidal sessile communities, we also showed that estimates of transition probabilities and of the properties of community dynamics may differ considerably when spatial dependence is taken into account.Results suggest the importance of accounting for resampling error and local community structure for developing management plans that are based on Markovian models. Our approach provides a solution to this problem that is applicable to broad sessile communities. It can even accommodate an anisotropic spatial correlation of species composition, and may also serve as a basis for inferring complex nonlinear ecological dynamics.

Maximizing the probability of satisfying the clinical goals in radiation therapy treatment planning under setup uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fredriksson, Albin, E-mail: albin.fredriksson@raysearchlabs.com; Hårdemark, Björn; Forsgren, Anders

2015-07-15

Purpose: This paper introduces a method that maximizes the probability of satisfying the clinical goals in intensity-modulated radiation therapy treatments subject to setup uncertainty. Methods: The authors perform robust optimization in which the clinical goals are constrained to be satisfied whenever the setup error falls within an uncertainty set. The shape of the uncertainty set is included as a variable in the optimization. The goal of the optimization is to modify the shape of the uncertainty set in order to maximize the probability that the setup error will fall within the modified set. Because the constraints enforce the clinical goalsmore » to be satisfied under all setup errors within the uncertainty set, this is equivalent to maximizing the probability of satisfying the clinical goals. This type of robust optimization is studied with respect to photon and proton therapy applied to a prostate case and compared to robust optimization using an a priori defined uncertainty set. Results: Slight reductions of the uncertainty sets resulted in plans that satisfied a larger number of clinical goals than optimization with respect to a priori defined uncertainty sets, both within the reduced uncertainty sets and within the a priori, nonreduced, uncertainty sets. For the prostate case, the plans taking reduced uncertainty sets into account satisfied 1.4 (photons) and 1.5 (protons) times as many clinical goals over the scenarios as the method taking a priori uncertainty sets into account. Conclusions: Reducing the uncertainty sets enabled the optimization to find better solutions with respect to the errors within the reduced as well as the nonreduced uncertainty sets and thereby achieve higher probability of satisfying the clinical goals. This shows that asking for a little less in the optimization sometimes leads to better overall plan quality.« less

The role of the uncertainty of measurement of serum creatinine concentrations in the diagnosis of acute kidney injury.

PubMed

Kin Tekce, Buket; Tekce, Hikmet; Aktas, Gulali; Uyeturk, Ugur

2016-01-01

Uncertainty of measurement is the numeric expression of the errors associated with all measurements taken in clinical laboratories. Serum creatinine concentration is the most common diagnostic marker for acute kidney injury. The goal of this study was to determine the effect of the uncertainty of measurement of serum creatinine concentrations on the diagnosis of acute kidney injury. We calculated the uncertainty of measurement of serum creatinine according to the Nordtest Guide. Retrospectively, we identified 289 patients who were evaluated for acute kidney injury. Of the total patient pool, 233 were diagnosed with acute kidney injury using the AKIN classification scheme and then were compared using statistical analysis. We determined nine probabilities of the uncertainty of measurement of serum creatinine concentrations. There was a statistically significant difference in the number of patients diagnosed with acute kidney injury when uncertainty of measurement was taken into consideration (first probability compared to the fifth p = 0.023 and first probability compared to the ninth p = 0.012). We found that the uncertainty of measurement for serum creatinine concentrations was an important factor for correctly diagnosing acute kidney injury. In addition, based on the AKIN classification scheme, minimizing the total allowable error levels for serum creatinine concentrations is necessary for the accurate diagnosis of acute kidney injury by clinicians.

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Shen, Yun; Tobia, Michael J; Sommer, Tobias; Obermayer, Klaus

2014-07-01

We derive a family of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning methods for agents, who face sequential decision-making tasks in uncertain environments. By applying a utility function to the temporal difference (TD) error, nonlinear transformations are effectively applied not only to the received rewards but also to the true transition probabilities of the underlying Markov decision process. When appropriate utility functions are chosen, the agents' behaviors express key features of human behavior as predicted by prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979 ), for example, different risk preferences for gains and losses, as well as the shape of subjective probability curves. We derive a risk-sensitive Q-learning algorithm, which is necessary for modeling human behavior when transition probabilities are unknown, and prove its convergence. As a proof of principle for the applicability of the new framework, we apply it to quantify human behavior in a sequential investment task. We find that the risk-sensitive variant provides a significantly better fit to the behavioral data and that it leads to an interpretation of the subject's responses that is indeed consistent with prospect theory. The analysis of simultaneously measured fMRI signals shows a significant correlation of the risk-sensitive TD error with BOLD signal change in the ventral striatum. In addition we find a significant correlation of the risk-sensitive Q-values with neural activity in the striatum, cingulate cortex, and insula that is not present if standard Q-values are used.

Statistical analysis of the limitation of half integer resonances on the available momentum acceptance of the High Energy Photon Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Yi; Duan, Zhe

2017-01-01

In a diffraction-limited storage ring, half integer resonances can have strong effects on the beam dynamics, associated with the large detuning terms from the strong focusing and strong sextupoles as required for an ultralow emittance. In this study, the limitation of half integer resonances on the available momentum acceptance (MA) was statistically analyzed based on one design of the High Energy Photon Source (HEPS). It was found that the probability of MA reduction due to crossing of half integer resonances is closely correlated with the level of beta beats at the nominal tunes, but independent of the error sources. The analysis indicated that for the presented HEPS lattice design, the rms amplitude of beta beats should be kept below 1.5% horizontally and 2.5% vertically to reach a small MA reduction probability of about 1%.

LabVIEW 2010 Computer Vision Platform Based Virtual Instrument and Its Application for Pitting Corrosion Study.

PubMed

Ramos, Rogelio; Zlatev, Roumen; Valdez, Benjamin; Stoytcheva, Margarita; Carrillo, Mónica; García, Juan-Francisco

2013-01-01

A virtual instrumentation (VI) system called VI localized corrosion image analyzer (LCIA) based on LabVIEW 2010 was developed allowing rapid automatic and subjective error-free determination of the pits number on large sized corroded specimens. The VI LCIA controls synchronously the digital microscope image taking and its analysis, finally resulting in a map file containing the coordinates of the detected probable pits containing zones on the investigated specimen. The pits area, traverse length, and density are also determined by the VI using binary large objects (blobs) analysis. The resulting map file can be used further by a scanning vibrating electrode technique (SVET) system for rapid (one pass) "true/false" SVET check of the probable zones only passing through the pit's centers avoiding thus the entire specimen scan. A complete SVET scan over the already proved "true" zones could determine the corrosion rate in any of the zones.

Local indicators of geocoding accuracy (LIGA): theory and application

PubMed Central

Jacquez, Geoffrey M; Rommel, Robert

2009-01-01

Background Although sources of positional error in geographic locations (e.g. geocoding error) used for describing and modeling spatial patterns are widely acknowledged, research on how such error impacts the statistical results has been limited. In this paper we explore techniques for quantifying the perturbability of spatial weights to different specifications of positional error. Results We find that a family of curves describes the relationship between perturbability and positional error, and use these curves to evaluate sensitivity of alternative spatial weight specifications to positional error both globally (when all locations are considered simultaneously) and locally (to identify those locations that would benefit most from increased geocoding accuracy). We evaluate the approach in simulation studies, and demonstrate it using a case-control study of bladder cancer in south-eastern Michigan. Conclusion Three results are significant. First, the shape of the probability distributions of positional error (e.g. circular, elliptical, cross) has little impact on the perturbability of spatial weights, which instead depends on the mean positional error. Second, our methodology allows researchers to evaluate the sensitivity of spatial statistics to positional accuracy for specific geographies. This has substantial practical implications since it makes possible routine sensitivity analysis of spatial statistics to positional error arising in geocoded street addresses, global positioning systems, LIDAR and other geographic data. Third, those locations with high perturbability (most sensitive to positional error) and high leverage (that contribute the most to the spatial weight being considered) will benefit the most from increased positional accuracy. These are rapidly identified using a new visualization tool we call the LIGA scatterplot. Herein lies a paradox for spatial analysis: For a given level of positional error increasing sample density to more accurately follow the underlying population distribution increases perturbability and introduces error into the spatial weights matrix. In some studies positional error may not impact the statistical results, and in others it might invalidate the results. We therefore must understand the relationships between positional accuracy and the perturbability of the spatial weights in order to have confidence in a study's results. PMID:19863795

Heritability of lenticular myopia in English Springer spaniels.

PubMed

Kubai, Melissa A; Labelle, Amber L; Hamor, Ralph E; Mutti, Donald O; Famula, Thomas R; Murphy, Christopher J

2013-11-08

We determined whether naturally-occurring lenticular myopia in English Springer spaniels (ESS) has a genetic component. Streak retinoscopy was performed on 226 related ESS 30 minutes after the onset of pharmacologic mydriasis and cycloplegia. A pedigree was constructed to determine relationships between affected offspring and parents. Estimation of heritability was done in a Bayesian analysis (facilitated by the MCMCglmm package of R) of refractive error in a model, including terms for sex and coat color. Myopia was defined as ≤-0.5 diopters (D) spherical equivalent. The median refractive error for ESS was 0.25 D (range, -3.5 to +4.5 D). Median age was 0.2 years (range, 0.1-15 years). The prevalence of myopia in related ESS was 19% (42/226). The ESS had a strong correlation (r = 0.95) for refractive error between the two eyes. Moderate heritability was present for refractive error with a mean value of 0.29 (95% highest probability density, 0.07-0.50). The distribution of refractive error, and subsequently lenticular myopia, has a moderate genetic component in ESS. Further investigation of genes responsible for regulation of the development of refractive ocular components in canines is warranted.

Modeling misidentification errors in capture-recapture studies using photographic identification of evolving marks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yoshizaki, J.; Pollock, K.H.; Brownie, C.; Webster, R.A.

2009-01-01

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) are used to identify individual animals in a capture-recapture study. Photographic identification (photoID) typically uses photographic images of animals' naturally existing features as tags (photographic tags) and is subject to two main causes of identification errors: those related to quality of photographs (non-evolving natural tags) and those related to changes in natural marks (evolving natural tags). The conventional methods for analysis of capture-recapture data do not account for identification errors, and to do so requires a detailed understanding of the misidentification mechanism. Focusing on the situation where errors are due to evolving natural tags, we propose a misidentification mechanism and outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies. We introduce methods for estimating population size based on this model. Using a simulation study, we show that conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored, and that, in comparison, our new estimators have better properties except in cases with low capture probabilities (<0.2) or low misidentification rates (<2.5%). ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Evaluation of Two Crew Module Boilerplate Tests Using Newly Developed Calibration Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Reaves, Mercedes C.

2012-01-01

The paper discusses a application of multi-dimensional calibration metrics to evaluate pressure data from water drop tests of the Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) crew module boilerplate. Specifically, three metrics are discussed: 1) a metric to assess the probability of enveloping the measured data with the model, 2) a multi-dimensional orthogonality metric to assess model adequacy between test and analysis, and 3) a prediction error metric to conduct sensor placement to minimize pressure prediction errors. Data from similar (nearly repeated) capsule drop tests shows significant variability in the measured pressure responses. When compared to expected variability using model predictions, it is demonstrated that the measured variability cannot be explained by the model under the current uncertainty assumptions.

A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, Anne B.; Koussis, Antonis D.; Beale, Guy O.

1989-01-01

A new channel dynamics scheme (alternative system predictor in real time (ASPIRE)), designed specifically for real-time river flow forecasting, is introduced to reduce uncertainty in the forecast. ASPIRE is a storage routing model that limits the influence of catchment model forecast errors to the downstream station closest to the catchment. Comparisons with the Muskingum routing scheme in field tests suggest that the ASPIRE scheme can provide more accurate forecasts, probably because discharge observations are used to a maximum advantage and routing reaches (and model errors in each reach) are uncoupled. Using ASPIRE in conjunction with the Kalman filter did not improve forecast accuracy relative to a deterministic updating procedure. Theoretical analysis suggests that this is due to a large process noise to measurement noise ratio.

On the Determinants of the Conjunction Fallacy: Probability versus Inductive Confirmation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena

2013-01-01

Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such…

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke Was Within Any Radius of Any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2010-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station.

Superior model for fault tolerance computation in designing nano-sized circuit systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, N. S. S., E-mail: narinderjit@petronas.com.my; Muthuvalu, M. S., E-mail: msmuthuvalu@gmail.com; Asirvadam, V. S., E-mail: vijanth-sagayan@petronas.com.my

2014-10-24

As CMOS technology scales nano-metrically, reliability turns out to be a decisive subject in the design methodology of nano-sized circuit systems. As a result, several computational approaches have been developed to compute and evaluate reliability of desired nano-electronic circuits. The process of computing reliability becomes very troublesome and time consuming as the computational complexity build ups with the desired circuit size. Therefore, being able to measure reliability instantly and superiorly is fast becoming necessary in designing modern logic integrated circuits. For this purpose, the paper firstly looks into the development of an automated reliability evaluation tool based on the generalizationmore » of Probabilistic Gate Model (PGM) and Boolean Difference-based Error Calculator (BDEC) models. The Matlab-based tool allows users to significantly speed-up the task of reliability analysis for very large number of nano-electronic circuits. Secondly, by using the developed automated tool, the paper explores into a comparative study involving reliability computation and evaluation by PGM and, BDEC models for different implementations of same functionality circuits. Based on the reliability analysis, BDEC gives exact and transparent reliability measures, but as the complexity of the same functionality circuits with respect to gate error increases, reliability measure by BDEC tends to be lower than the reliability measure by PGM. The lesser reliability measure by BDEC is well explained in this paper using distribution of different signal input patterns overtime for same functionality circuits. Simulation results conclude that the reliability measure by BDEC depends not only on faulty gates but it also depends on circuit topology, probability of input signals being one or zero and also probability of error on signal lines.« less

On the value of Mendelian laws of segregation in families: data quality control, imputation and beyond

PubMed Central

Blue, Elizabeth Marchani; Sun, Lei; Tintle, Nathan L.; Wijsman, Ellen M.

2014-01-01

When analyzing family data, we dream of perfectly informative data, even whole genome sequences (WGS) for all family members. Reality intervenes, and we find next-generation sequence (NGS) data have error, and are often too expensive or impossible to collect on everyone. Genetic Analysis Workshop 18 groups “Quality Control” and “Dropping WGS through families using GWAS framework” focused on finding, correcting, and using errors within the available sequence and family data, developing methods to infer and analyze missing sequence data among relatives, and testing for linkage and association with simulated blood pressure. We found that single nucleotide polymorphisms, NGS, and imputed data are generally concordant, but that errors are particularly likely at rare variants, homozygous genotypes, within regions with repeated sequences or structural variants, and within sequence data imputed from unrelateds. Admixture complicated identification of cryptic relatedness, but information from Mendelian transmission improved error detection and provided an estimate of the de novo mutation rate. Both genotype and pedigree errors had an adverse effect on subsequent analyses. Computationally fast rules-based imputation was accurate, but could not cover as many loci or subjects as more computationally demanding probability-based methods. Incorporating population-level data into pedigree-based imputation methods improved results. Observed data outperformed imputed data in association testing, but imputed data were also useful. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of existing methods, and suggest possible future directions. Topics include improving communication between those performing data collection and analysis, establishing thresholds for and improving imputation quality, and incorporating error into imputation and analytical models. PMID:25112184

Improvement and comparison of likelihood functions for model calibration and parameter uncertainty analysis within a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim

2014-11-01

In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.

Error Patterns in Ordering Fractions among At-Risk Fourth-Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malone, Amelia S.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

2017-01-01

The three purposes of this study were to (a) describe fraction ordering errors among at-risk fourth grade students, (b) assess the effect of part-whole understanding and accuracy of fraction magnitude estimation on the probability of committing errors, and (c) examine the effect of students' ability to explain comparing problems on the probability…

Medication errors in chemotherapy preparation and administration: a survey conducted among oncology nurses in Turkey.

PubMed

Ulas, Arife; Silay, Kamile; Akinci, Sema; Dede, Didem Sener; Akinci, Muhammed Bulent; Sendur, Mehmet Ali Nahit; Cubukcu, Erdem; Coskun, Hasan Senol; Degirmenci, Mustafa; Utkan, Gungor; Ozdemir, Nuriye; Isikdogan, Abdurrahman; Buyukcelik, Abdullah; Inanc, Mevlude; Bilici, Ahmet; Odabasi, Hatice; Cihan, Sener; Avci, Nilufer; Yalcin, Bulent

2015-01-01

Medication errors in oncology may cause severe clinical problems due to low therapeutic indices and high toxicity of chemotherapeutic agents. We aimed to investigate unintentional medication errors and underlying factors during chemotherapy preparation and administration based on a systematic survey conducted to reflect oncology nurses experience. This study was conducted in 18 adult chemotherapy units with volunteer participation of 206 nurses. A survey developed by primary investigators and medication errors (MAEs) defined preventable errors during prescription of medication, ordering, preparation or administration. The survey consisted of 4 parts: demographic features of nurses; workload of chemotherapy units; errors and their estimated monthly number during chemotherapy preparation and administration; and evaluation of the possible factors responsible from ME. The survey was conducted by face to face interview and data analyses were performed with descriptive statistics. Chi-square or Fisher exact tests were used for a comparative analysis of categorical data. Some 83.4% of the 210 nurses reported one or more than one error during chemotherapy preparation and administration. Prescribing or ordering wrong doses by physicians (65.7%) and noncompliance with administration sequences during chemotherapy administration (50.5%) were the most common errors. The most common estimated average monthly error was not following the administration sequence of the chemotherapeutic agents (4.1 times/month, range 1-20). The most important underlying reasons for medication errors were heavy workload (49.7%) and insufficient number of staff (36.5%). Our findings suggest that the probability of medication error is very high during chemotherapy preparation and administration, the most common involving prescribing and ordering errors. Further studies must address the strategies to minimize medication error in chemotherapy receiving patients, determine sufficient protective measures and establishing multistep control mechanisms.

Performance analysis of a coherent free space optical communication system based on experiment.

PubMed

Cao, Jingtai; Zhao, Xiaohui; Liu, Wei; Gu, Haijun

2017-06-26

Based on our previous study and designed experimental AO system with a 97-element continuous surface deformable mirror, we conduct the performance analysis of a coherent free space optical communication (FSOC) system for mixing efficiency (ME), bit error rate (BER) and outage probability under different Greenwood frequency and atmospheric coherent length. The results show that the influence of the atmospheric temporal characteristics on the performance is slightly stronger than that of the spatial characteristics when the receiving aperture and the number of sub-apertures are given. This analysis result provides a reference for the design of the coherent FSOC system.

Statistical analysis of AFE GN&C aeropass performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Ho-Pen; French, Raymond A.

1990-01-01

Performance of the guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system used on the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) spacecraft has been studied with Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the AFE GN&C is investigated with a 6-DOF numerical dynamic model which includes a Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) and a gravitational model with oblateness corrections. The study considers all the uncertainties due to the environment and the system itself. In the AFE's aeropass phase, perturbations on the system performance are caused by an error space which has over 20 dimensions of the correlated/uncorrelated error sources. The goal of this study is to determine, in a statistical sense, how much flight path angle error can be tolerated at entry interface (EI) and still have acceptable delta-V capability at exit to position the AFE spacecraft for recovery. Assuming there is fuel available to produce 380 ft/sec of delta-V at atmospheric exit, a 3-sigma standard deviation in flight path angle error of 0.04 degrees at EI would result in a 98-percent probability of mission success.

Monte Carlo simulation of errors in the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility - A second-rank symmetric tensor. [for grains in sedimentary and volcanic rocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lienert, Barry R.

1991-01-01

Monte Carlo perturbations of synthetic tensors to evaluate the Hext/Jelinek elliptical confidence regions for anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) eigenvectors are used. When the perturbations are 33 percent of the minimum anisotropy, both the shapes and probability densities of the resulting eigenvector distributions agree with the elliptical distributions predicted by the Hext/Jelinek equations. When the perturbation size is increased to 100 percent of the minimum eigenvalue difference, the major axis of the 95 percent confidence ellipse underestimates the observed eigenvector dispersion by about 10 deg. The observed distributions of the principal susceptibilities (eigenvalues) are close to being normal, with standard errors that agree well with the calculated Hext/Jelinek errors. The Hext/Jelinek ellipses are also able to describe the AMS dispersions due to instrumental noise and provide reasonable limits for the AMS dispersions observed in two Hawaiian basaltic dikes. It is concluded that the Hext/Jelinek method provides a satisfactory description of the errors in AMS data and should be a standard part of any AMS data analysis.

Impact of device level faults in a digital avionic processor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suk, Ho Kim

1989-01-01

This study describes an experimental analysis of the impact of gate and device-level faults in the processor of a Bendix BDX-930 flight control system. Via mixed mode simulation, faults were injected at the gate (stuck-at) and at the transistor levels and, their propagation through the chip to the output pins was measured. The results show that there is little correspondence between a stuck-at and a device-level fault model, as far as error activity or detection within a functional unit is concerned. In so far as error activity outside the injected unit and at the output pins are concerned, the stuck-at and device models track each other. The stuck-at model, however, overestimates, by over 100 percent, the probability of fault propagation to the output pins. An evaluation of the Mean Error Durations and the Mean Time Between Errors at the output pins shows that the stuck-at model significantly underestimates (by 62 percent) the impact of an internal chip fault on the output pins. Finally, the study also quantifies the impact of device fault by location, both internally and at the output pins.

Population viability analysis with species occurrence data from museum collections.

PubMed

Skarpaas, Olav; Stabbetorp, Odd E

2011-06-01

The most comprehensive data on many species come from scientific collections. Thus, we developed a method of population viability analysis (PVA) in which this type of occurrence data can be used. In contrast to classical PVA, our approach accounts for the inherent observation error in occurrence data and allows the estimation of the population parameters needed for viability analysis. We tested the sensitivity of the approach to spatial resolution of the data, length of the time series, sampling effort, and detection probability with simulated data and conducted PVAs for common, rare, and threatened species. We compared the results of these PVAs with results of standard method PVAs in which observation error is ignored. Our method provided realistic estimates of population growth terms and quasi-extinction risk in cases in which the standard method without observation error could not. For low values of any of the sampling variables we tested, precision decreased, and in some cases biased estimates resulted. The results of our PVAs with the example species were consistent with information in the literature on these species. Our approach may facilitate PVA for a wide range of species of conservation concern for which demographic data are lacking but occurrence data are readily available. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, Michael

2017-09-01

Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.

Radiology's Achilles' heel: error and variation in the interpretation of the Röntgen image.

PubMed

Robinson, P J

1997-11-01

The performance of the human eye and brain has failed to keep pace with the enormous technical progress in the first full century of radiology. Errors and variations in interpretation now represent the weakest aspect of clinical imaging. Those interpretations which differ from the consensus view of a panel of "experts" may be regarded as errors; where experts fail to achieve consensus, differing reports are regarded as "observer variation". Errors arise from poor technique, failures of perception, lack of knowledge and misjudgments. Observer variation is substantial and should be taken into account when different diagnostic methods are compared; in many cases the difference between observers outweighs the difference between techniques. Strategies for reducing error include attention to viewing conditions, training of the observers, availability of previous films and relevant clinical data, dual or multiple reporting, standardization of terminology and report format, and assistance from computers. Digital acquisition and display will probably not affect observer variation but the performance of radiologists, as measured by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, may be improved by computer-directed search for specific image features. Other current developments show that where image features can be comprehensively described, computer analysis can replace the perception function of the observer, whilst the function of interpretation can in some cases be performed better by artificial neural networks. However, computer-assisted diagnosis is still in its infancy and complete replacement of the human observer is as yet a remote possibility.

Information Theoretic Studies and Assessment of Space Object Identification

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-24

localization are contained in Ref. [5]. 1.7.1 A Bayesian MPE Based Analysis of 2D Point-Source-Pair Superresolution In a second recently submitted paper [6], a...related problem of the optical superresolution (OSR) of a pair of equal-brightness point sources separated spatially by a distance (or angle) smaller...1403.4897 [physics.optics] (19 March 2014). 6. S. Prasad, “Asymptotics of Bayesian error probability and 2D pair superresolution ,” submitted to Opt. Express

Cedar Grove: An Interdisciplinary Investigation of a Late Caddo Farmstead in the Red River Valley.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-31

a mixed subsistence economy. Nutritional adequacy was is free from problems and potential errors. Each method to be tested by analysis of the...horses. A 1517 slave raid by Hernandez de "wherein Margry made inexcusable alterations, deletions, and Cordoba on the Yucatan was the precursor for the... nutrition , low infection and porotic corresponded closely with the chronological distribution of hyperostosis rates, and a low probability of dying at

Preliminary Analysis of Effect of Random Segment Errors on Coronagraph Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, Mark T.; Shaklan, Stuart B.; Stahl, H. Philip

2015-01-01

Are we alone in the Universe is probably the most compelling science question of our generation. To answer it requires a large aperture telescope with extreme wavefront stability. To image and characterize Earth-like planets requires the ability to block 10(exp 10) of the host stars light with a 10(exp -11) stability. For an internal coronagraph, this requires correcting wavefront errors and keeping that correction stable to a few picometers rms for the duration of the science observation. This requirement places severe specifications upon the performance of the observatory, telescope and primary mirror. A key task of the AMTD project (initiated in FY12) is to define telescope level specifications traceable to science requirements and flow those specifications to the primary mirror. From a systems perspective, probably the most important question is: What is the telescope wavefront stability specification? Previously, we suggested this specification should be 10 picometers per 10 minutes; considered issues of how this specification relates to architecture, i.e. monolithic or segmented primary mirror; and asked whether it was better to have few or many segmented. This paper reviews the 10 picometers per 10 minutes specification; provides analysis related to the application of this specification to segmented apertures; and suggests that a 3 or 4 ring segmented aperture is more sensitive to segment rigid body motion that an aperture with fewer or more segments.

Learning time-dependent noise to reduce logical errors: real time error rate estimation in quantum error correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Ming-Xia; Li, Ying

2017-12-01

Quantum error correction is important to quantum information processing, which allows us to reliably process information encoded in quantum error correction codes. Efficient quantum error correction benefits from the knowledge of error rates. We propose a protocol for monitoring error rates in real time without interrupting the quantum error correction. Any adaptation of the quantum error correction code or its implementation circuit is not required. The protocol can be directly applied to the most advanced quantum error correction techniques, e.g. surface code. A Gaussian processes algorithm is used to estimate and predict error rates based on error correction data in the past. We find that using these estimated error rates, the probability of error correction failures can be significantly reduced by a factor increasing with the code distance.

Probabilistic analysis on the failure of reactivity control for the PWR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sony Tjahyani, D. T.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

The fundamental safety function of the power reactor is to control reactivity, to remove heat from the reactor, and to confine radioactive material. The safety analysis is used to ensure that each parameter is fulfilled during the design and is done by deterministic and probabilistic method. The analysis of reactivity control is important to be done because it will affect the other of fundamental safety functions. The purpose of this research is to determine the failure probability of the reactivity control and its failure contribution on a PWR design. The analysis is carried out by determining intermediate events, which cause the failure of reactivity control. Furthermore, the basic event is determined by deductive method using the fault tree analysis. The AP1000 is used as the object of research. The probability data of component failure or human error, which is used in the analysis, is collected from IAEA, Westinghouse, NRC and other published documents. The results show that there are six intermediate events, which can cause the failure of the reactivity control. These intermediate events are uncontrolled rod bank withdrawal at low power or full power, malfunction of boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal, malfunction of improper position of fuel assembly and ejection of control rod. The failure probability of reactivity control is 1.49E-03 per year. The causes of failures which are affected by human factor are boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal and malfunction of improper position for fuel assembly. Based on the assessment, it is concluded that the failure probability of reactivity control on the PWR is still within the IAEA criteria.

Effects of structural error on the estimates of parameters of dynamical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadaegh, F. Y.; Bekey, G. A.

1986-01-01

In this paper, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced for identifying a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of parameters are given. The effects of structural error on the parameter estimates for both the deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Position Error Covariance Matrix Validation and Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joe, Jr.

2016-01-01

In order to calculate operationally accurate collision probabilities, the position error covariance matrices predicted at times of closest approach must be sufficiently accurate representations of the position uncertainties. This presentation will discuss why the Gaussian distribution is a reasonable expectation for the position uncertainty and how this assumed distribution type is used in the validation and correction of position error covariance matrices.

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana

2014-01-01

Most businesses recognize that people will make mistakes and assume errors are just part of the cost of doing business, but does it need to be? Companies with high risk, or major consequences, should consider the effect of human error. In a variety of industries, Human Errors have caused costly failures and workplace injuries. These have included: airline mishaps, medical malpractice, administration of medication and major oil spills have all been blamed on human error. A technique to mitigate or even eliminate some of these costly human errors is the use of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). Various methodologies are available to perform Human Reliability Assessments that range from identifying the most likely areas for concern to detailed assessments with human error failure probabilities calculated. Which methodology to use would be based on a variety of factors that would include: 1) how people react and act in different industries, and differing expectations based on industries standards, 2) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 3) type and availability of data and 4) how the industry views risk & reliability influences ( types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks versus cost based concerns). The Human Reliability Assessments should be the first step to reduce, mitigate or eliminate the costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify human error risks allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these risks and prevent costly failures.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morley, Steven

The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient ofmore » variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.« less

How Big of a Problem is Analytic Error in Secondary Analyses of Survey Data?

PubMed

West, Brady T; Sakshaug, Joseph W; Aurelien, Guy Alain S

2016-01-01

Secondary analyses of survey data collected from large probability samples of persons or establishments further scientific progress in many fields. The complex design features of these samples improve data collection efficiency, but also require analysts to account for these features when conducting analysis. Unfortunately, many secondary analysts from fields outside of statistics, biostatistics, and survey methodology do not have adequate training in this area, and as a result may apply incorrect statistical methods when analyzing these survey data sets. This in turn could lead to the publication of incorrect inferences based on the survey data that effectively negate the resources dedicated to these surveys. In this article, we build on the results of a preliminary meta-analysis of 100 peer-reviewed journal articles presenting analyses of data from a variety of national health surveys, which suggested that analytic errors may be extremely prevalent in these types of investigations. We first perform a meta-analysis of a stratified random sample of 145 additional research products analyzing survey data from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT), which describes features of the U.S. Science and Engineering workforce, and examine trends in the prevalence of analytic error across the decades used to stratify the sample. We once again find that analytic errors appear to be quite prevalent in these studies. Next, we present several example analyses of real SESTAT data, and demonstrate that a failure to perform these analyses correctly can result in substantially biased estimates with standard errors that do not adequately reflect complex sample design features. Collectively, the results of this investigation suggest that reviewers of this type of research need to pay much closer attention to the analytic methods employed by researchers attempting to publish or present secondary analyses of survey data.

How Big of a Problem is Analytic Error in Secondary Analyses of Survey Data?

PubMed Central

West, Brady T.; Sakshaug, Joseph W.; Aurelien, Guy Alain S.

2016-01-01

Secondary analyses of survey data collected from large probability samples of persons or establishments further scientific progress in many fields. The complex design features of these samples improve data collection efficiency, but also require analysts to account for these features when conducting analysis. Unfortunately, many secondary analysts from fields outside of statistics, biostatistics, and survey methodology do not have adequate training in this area, and as a result may apply incorrect statistical methods when analyzing these survey data sets. This in turn could lead to the publication of incorrect inferences based on the survey data that effectively negate the resources dedicated to these surveys. In this article, we build on the results of a preliminary meta-analysis of 100 peer-reviewed journal articles presenting analyses of data from a variety of national health surveys, which suggested that analytic errors may be extremely prevalent in these types of investigations. We first perform a meta-analysis of a stratified random sample of 145 additional research products analyzing survey data from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT), which describes features of the U.S. Science and Engineering workforce, and examine trends in the prevalence of analytic error across the decades used to stratify the sample. We once again find that analytic errors appear to be quite prevalent in these studies. Next, we present several example analyses of real SESTAT data, and demonstrate that a failure to perform these analyses correctly can result in substantially biased estimates with standard errors that do not adequately reflect complex sample design features. Collectively, the results of this investigation suggest that reviewers of this type of research need to pay much closer attention to the analytic methods employed by researchers attempting to publish or present secondary analyses of survey data. PMID:27355817

Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Dale L; Fang, Xiangming; Mazumdar, Soumya; Rushton, Gerard

2007-01-10

The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km) outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m) than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m). The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

An Error-Entropy Minimization Algorithm for Tracking Control of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems with Non-Gaussian Variables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yunlong; Wang, Aiping; Guo, Lei

This paper presents an error-entropy minimization tracking control algorithm for a class of dynamic stochastic system. The system is represented by a set of time-varying discrete nonlinear equations with non-Gaussian stochastic input, where the statistical properties of stochastic input are unknown. By using Parzen windowing with Gaussian kernel to estimate the probability densities of errors, recursive algorithms are then proposed to design the controller such that the tracking error can be minimized. The performance of the error-entropy minimization criterion is compared with the mean-square-error minimization in the simulation results.

Impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the performance of a relay-assisted free-space optical communication system over exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian; Fu, Huihua; Wang, Ranran; Guo, Lixin

2016-09-20

The impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the system performance of decode-and-forward protocol-based multihop parallel optical wireless communication systems is studied. For the aggregated fading channel, the atmospheric turbulence is simulated by an exponentiated Weibull model, and pointing errors are described by one recently proposed statistical model including both boresight and jitter. The binary phase-shift keying subcarrier intensity modulation-based analytical average bit error rate (ABER) and outage probability expressions are achieved for a nonidentically and independently distributed system. The ABER and outage probability are then analyzed with different turbulence strengths, receiving aperture sizes, structure parameters (P and Q), jitter variances, and boresight displacements. The results show that aperture averaging offers almost the same system performance improvement with boresight included or not, despite the values of P and Q. The performance enhancement owing to the increase of cooperative path (P) is more evident with nonzero boresight than that with zero boresight (jitter only), whereas the performance deterioration because of the increasing hops (Q) with nonzero boresight is almost the same as that with zero boresight. Monte Carlo simulation is offered to verify the validity of ABER and outage probability expressions.

Genetic Algorithm-Based Motion Estimation Method using Orientations and EMGs for Robot Controls

PubMed Central

Chae, Jeongsook; Jin, Yong; Sung, Yunsick

2018-01-01

Demand for interactive wearable devices is rapidly increasing with the development of smart devices. To accurately utilize wearable devices for remote robot controls, limited data should be analyzed and utilized efficiently. For example, the motions by a wearable device, called Myo device, can be estimated by measuring its orientation, and calculating a Bayesian probability based on these orientation data. Given that Myo device can measure various types of data, the accuracy of its motion estimation can be increased by utilizing these additional types of data. This paper proposes a motion estimation method based on weighted Bayesian probability and concurrently measured data, orientations and electromyograms (EMG). The most probable motion among estimated is treated as a final estimated motion. Thus, recognition accuracy can be improved when compared to the traditional methods that employ only a single type of data. In our experiments, seven subjects perform five predefined motions. When orientation is measured by the traditional methods, the sum of the motion estimation errors is 37.3%; likewise, when only EMG data are used, the error in motion estimation by the proposed method was also 37.3%. The proposed combined method has an error of 25%. Therefore, the proposed method reduces motion estimation errors by 12%. PMID:29324641

Anatomy of an incident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cournoyer, Michael E.; Trujillo, Stanley; Lawton, Cindy M.

A traditional view of incidents is that they are caused by shortcomings in human competence, attention, or attitude. It may be under the label of “loss of situational awareness,” procedure “violation,” or “poor” management. A different view is that human error is not the cause of failure, but a symptom of failure – trouble deeper inside the system. In this perspective, human error is not the conclusion, but rather the starting point of investigations. During an investigation, three types of information are gathered: physical, documentary, and human (recall/experience). Through the causal analysis process, apparent cause or apparent causes are identifiedmore » as the most probable cause or causes of an incident or condition that management has the control to fix and for which effective recommendations for corrective actions can be generated. A causal analysis identifies relevant human performance factors. In the following presentation, the anatomy of a radiological incident is discussed, and one case study is presented. We analyzed the contributing factors that caused a radiological incident. When underlying conditions, decisions, actions, and inactions that contribute to the incident are identified. This includes weaknesses that may warrant improvements that tolerate error. Measures that reduce consequences or likelihood of recurrence are discussed.« less

Anatomy of an incident

DOE PAGES

Cournoyer, Michael E.; Trujillo, Stanley; Lawton, Cindy M.; ...

2016-03-23

A traditional view of incidents is that they are caused by shortcomings in human competence, attention, or attitude. It may be under the label of “loss of situational awareness,” procedure “violation,” or “poor” management. A different view is that human error is not the cause of failure, but a symptom of failure – trouble deeper inside the system. In this perspective, human error is not the conclusion, but rather the starting point of investigations. During an investigation, three types of information are gathered: physical, documentary, and human (recall/experience). Through the causal analysis process, apparent cause or apparent causes are identifiedmore » as the most probable cause or causes of an incident or condition that management has the control to fix and for which effective recommendations for corrective actions can be generated. A causal analysis identifies relevant human performance factors. In the following presentation, the anatomy of a radiological incident is discussed, and one case study is presented. We analyzed the contributing factors that caused a radiological incident. When underlying conditions, decisions, actions, and inactions that contribute to the incident are identified. This includes weaknesses that may warrant improvements that tolerate error. Measures that reduce consequences or likelihood of recurrence are discussed.« less

A TCP model for external beam treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, Sean; Putten, Wil van der

2013-03-15

Purpose: Biological models offer the ability to predict clinical outcomes. The authors describe a model to predict the clinical response of intermediate-risk prostate cancer to external beam radiotherapy for a variety of fractionation regimes. Methods: A fully heterogeneous population averaged tumor control probability model was fit to clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments. The tumor control probability model was then employed to predict the clinical outcome of extreme hypofractionation regimes, as utilized in stereotactic body radiotherapy. Results: The tumor control probability model achieves an excellent level of fit, R{sup 2} value of 0.93 and a root meanmore » squared error of 1.31%, to the clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments using realistic values for biological input parameters. Residuals Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 1.0% are produced by the tumor control probability model when compared to clinical outcome data for stereotactic body radiotherapy. Conclusions: The authors conclude that this tumor control probability model, used with the optimized radiosensitivity values obtained from the fit, is an appropriate mechanistic model for the analysis and evaluation of external beam RT plans with regard to tumor control for these clinical conditions.« less

SU-E-J-172: Bio-Physical Effects of Patients Set-Up Errors According to Whole Breast Irradiation Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, S; Suh, T; Park, S

2015-06-15

Purpose: The dose-related effects of patient setup errors on biophysical indices were evaluated for conventional wedge (CW) and field-in-field (FIF) whole breast irradiation techniques. Methods: The treatment plans for 10 patients receiving whole left breast irradiation were retrospectively selected. Radiobiological and physical effects caused by dose variations were evaluated by shifting the isocenters and gantry angles of the treatment plans. Dose-volume histograms of the planning target volume (PTV), heart, and lungs were generated, and conformity index (CI), homogeneity index (HI), tumor control probability (TCP), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) were determined. Results: For “isocenter shift plan” with posterior direction,more » the D95 of the PTV decreased by approximately 15% and the TCP of the PTV decreased by approximately 50% for the FIF technique and by 40% for the CW; however, the NTCPs of the lungs and heart increased by about 13% and 1%, respectively, for both techniques. Increasing the gantry angle decreased the TCPs of the PTV by 24.4% (CW) and by 34% (FIF). The NTCPs for the two techniques differed by only 3%. In case of CW, the CIs and HIs were much higher than that of the FIF in all cases. It had a significant difference between two techniques (p<0.01). According to our results, however, the FIF had more sensitive response by set up errors rather than CW in bio-physical aspects. Conclusions: The radiobiological-based analysis can detect significant dosimetric errors then, can provide a practical patient quality assurance method to guide the radiobiological and physical effects.« less

Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veran, Sophie; Kleiner, Kevin J.; Choquet, Remi; Collazo, Jaime; Nichols, James D.

2012-01-01

Land cover data are widely used in ecology as land cover change is a major component of changes affecting ecological systems. Landscape change estimates are characterized by classification errors. Researchers have used error matrices to adjust estimates of areal extent, but estimation of land cover change is more difficult and more challenging, with error in classification being confused with change. We modeled land cover dynamics for a discrete set of habitat states. The approach accounts for state uncertainty to produce unbiased estimates of habitat transition probabilities using ground information to inform error rates. We consider the case when true and observed habitat states are available for the same geographic unit (pixel) and when true and observed states are obtained at one level of resolution, but transition probabilities estimated at a different level of resolution (aggregations of pixels). Simulation results showed a strong bias when estimating transition probabilities if misclassification was not accounted for. Scaling-up does not necessarily decrease the bias and can even increase it. Analyses of land cover data in the Southeast region of the USA showed that land change patterns appeared distorted if misclassification was not accounted for: rate of habitat turnover was artificially increased and habitat composition appeared more homogeneous. Not properly accounting for land cover misclassification can produce misleading inferences about habitat state and dynamics and also misleading predictions about species distributions based on habitat. Our models that explicitly account for state uncertainty should be useful in obtaining more accurate inferences about change from data that include errors.

Study on the Rationality and Validity of Probit Models of Domino Effect to Chemical Process Equipment caused by Overpressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Dongliang; Huang, Guangtuan; Jiang, Juncheng; Zhang, Mingguang; Wang, Zhirong

2013-04-01

Overpressure is one important cause of domino effect in accidents of chemical process equipments. Some models considering propagation probability and threshold values of the domino effect caused by overpressure have been proposed in previous study. In order to prove the rationality and validity of the models reported in the reference, two boundary values of three damage degrees reported were considered as random variables respectively in the interval [0, 100%]. Based on the overpressure data for damage to the equipment and the damage state, and the calculation method reported in the references, the mean square errors of the four categories of damage probability models of overpressure were calculated with random boundary values, and then a relationship of mean square error vs. the two boundary value was obtained, the minimum of mean square error was obtained, compared with the result of the present work, mean square error decreases by about 3%. Therefore, the error was in the acceptable range of engineering applications, the models reported can be considered reasonable and valid.

Estimating alarm thresholds and the number of components in mixture distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burr, Tom; Hamada, Michael S.

2012-09-01

Mixtures of probability distributions arise in many nuclear assay and forensic applications, including nuclear weapon detection, neutron multiplicity counting, and in solution monitoring (SM) for nuclear safeguards. SM data is increasingly used to enhance nuclear safeguards in aqueous reprocessing facilities having plutonium in solution form in many tanks. This paper provides background for mixture probability distributions and then focuses on mixtures arising in SM data. SM data can be analyzed by evaluating transfer-mode residuals defined as tank-to-tank transfer differences, and wait-mode residuals defined as changes during non-transfer modes. A previous paper investigated impacts on transfer-mode and wait-mode residuals of event marking errors which arise when the estimated start and/or stop times of tank events such as transfers are somewhat different from the true start and/or stop times. Event marking errors contribute to non-Gaussian behavior and larger variation than predicted on the basis of individual tank calibration studies. This paper illustrates evidence for mixture probability distributions arising from such event marking errors and from effects such as condensation or evaporation during non-transfer modes, and pump carryover during transfer modes. A quantitative assessment of the sample size required to adequately characterize a mixture probability distribution arising in any context is included.

Maximum entropy approach to statistical inference for an ocean acoustic waveguide.

PubMed

Knobles, D P; Sagers, J D; Koch, R A

2012-02-01

A conditional probability distribution suitable for estimating the statistical properties of ocean seabed parameter values inferred from acoustic measurements is derived from a maximum entropy principle. The specification of the expectation value for an error function constrains the maximization of an entropy functional. This constraint determines the sensitivity factor (β) to the error function of the resulting probability distribution, which is a canonical form that provides a conservative estimate of the uncertainty of the parameter values. From the conditional distribution, marginal distributions for individual parameters can be determined from integration over the other parameters. The approach is an alternative to obtaining the posterior probability distribution without an intermediary determination of the likelihood function followed by an application of Bayes' rule. In this paper the expectation value that specifies the constraint is determined from the values of the error function for the model solutions obtained from a sparse number of data samples. The method is applied to ocean acoustic measurements taken on the New Jersey continental shelf. The marginal probability distribution for the values of the sound speed ratio at the surface of the seabed and the source levels of a towed source are examined for different geoacoustic model representations. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

Average BER and outage probability of the ground-to-train OWC link in turbulence with rain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yixin; Yang, Yanqiu; Hu, Beibei; Yu, Lin; Hu, Zheng-Da

2017-09-01

The bit-error rate (BER) and outage probability of optical wireless communication (OWC) link for the ground-to-train of the curved track in turbulence with rain is evaluated. Considering the re-modulation effects of raining fluctuation on optical signal modulated by turbulence, we set up the models of average BER and outage probability in the present of pointing errors, based on the double inverse Gaussian (IG) statistical distribution model. The numerical results indicate that, for the same covered track length, the larger curvature radius increases the outage probability and average BER. The performance of the OWC link in turbulence with rain is limited mainly by the rain rate and pointing errors which are induced by the beam wander and train vibration. The effect of the rain rate on the performance of the link is more severe than the atmospheric turbulence, but the fluctuation owing to the atmospheric turbulence affects the laser beam propagation more greatly than the skewness of the rain distribution. Besides, the turbulence-induced beam wander has a more significant impact on the system in heavier rain. We can choose the size of transmitting and receiving apertures and improve the shockproof performance of the tracks to optimize the communication performance of the system.

Computation and measurement of cell decision making errors using single cell data

PubMed Central

Habibi, Iman; Cheong, Raymond; Levchenko, Andre; Emamian, Effat S.; Abdi, Ali

2017-01-01

In this study a new computational method is developed to quantify decision making errors in cells, caused by noise and signaling failures. Analysis of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling pathway which regulates the transcription factor Nuclear Factor κB (NF-κB) using this method identifies two types of incorrect cell decisions called false alarm and miss. These two events represent, respectively, declaring a signal which is not present and missing a signal that does exist. Using single cell experimental data and the developed method, we compute false alarm and miss error probabilities in wild-type cells and provide a formulation which shows how these metrics depend on the signal transduction noise level. We also show that in the presence of abnormalities in a cell, decision making processes can be significantly affected, compared to a wild-type cell, and the method is able to model and measure such effects. In the TNF—NF-κB pathway, the method computes and reveals changes in false alarm and miss probabilities in A20-deficient cells, caused by cell’s inability to inhibit TNF-induced NF-κB response. In biological terms, a higher false alarm metric in this abnormal TNF signaling system indicates perceiving more cytokine signals which in fact do not exist at the system input, whereas a higher miss metric indicates that it is highly likely to miss signals that actually exist. Overall, this study demonstrates the ability of the developed method for modeling cell decision making errors under normal and abnormal conditions, and in the presence of transduction noise uncertainty. Compared to the previously reported pathway capacity metric, our results suggest that the introduced decision error metrics characterize signaling failures more accurately. This is mainly because while capacity is a useful metric to study information transmission in signaling pathways, it does not capture the overlap between TNF-induced noisy response curves. PMID:28379950

Computation and measurement of cell decision making errors using single cell data.

PubMed

Habibi, Iman; Cheong, Raymond; Lipniacki, Tomasz; Levchenko, Andre; Emamian, Effat S; Abdi, Ali

2017-04-01

In this study a new computational method is developed to quantify decision making errors in cells, caused by noise and signaling failures. Analysis of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling pathway which regulates the transcription factor Nuclear Factor κB (NF-κB) using this method identifies two types of incorrect cell decisions called false alarm and miss. These two events represent, respectively, declaring a signal which is not present and missing a signal that does exist. Using single cell experimental data and the developed method, we compute false alarm and miss error probabilities in wild-type cells and provide a formulation which shows how these metrics depend on the signal transduction noise level. We also show that in the presence of abnormalities in a cell, decision making processes can be significantly affected, compared to a wild-type cell, and the method is able to model and measure such effects. In the TNF-NF-κB pathway, the method computes and reveals changes in false alarm and miss probabilities in A20-deficient cells, caused by cell's inability to inhibit TNF-induced NF-κB response. In biological terms, a higher false alarm metric in this abnormal TNF signaling system indicates perceiving more cytokine signals which in fact do not exist at the system input, whereas a higher miss metric indicates that it is highly likely to miss signals that actually exist. Overall, this study demonstrates the ability of the developed method for modeling cell decision making errors under normal and abnormal conditions, and in the presence of transduction noise uncertainty. Compared to the previously reported pathway capacity metric, our results suggest that the introduced decision error metrics characterize signaling failures more accurately. This is mainly because while capacity is a useful metric to study information transmission in signaling pathways, it does not capture the overlap between TNF-induced noisy response curves.

Bayesian assessment of overtriage and undertriage at a level I trauma centre.

PubMed

DiDomenico, Paul B; Pietzsch, Jan B; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

2008-07-13

We analysed the trauma triage system at a specific level I trauma centre to assess rates of over- and undertriage and to support recommendations for system improvements. The triage process is designed to estimate the severity of patient injury and allocate resources accordingly, with potential errors of overestimation (overtriage) consuming excess resources and underestimation (undertriage) potentially leading to medical errors.We first modelled the overall trauma system using risk analysis methods to understand interdependencies among the actions of the participants. We interviewed six experienced trauma surgeons to obtain their expert opinion of the over- and undertriage rates occurring in the trauma centre. We then assessed actual over- and undertriage rates in a random sample of 86 trauma cases collected over a six-week period at the same centre. We employed Bayesian analysis to quantitatively combine the data with the prior probabilities derived from expert opinion in order to obtain posterior distributions. The results were estimates of overtriage and undertriage in 16.1 and 4.9% of patients, respectively. This Bayesian approach, which provides a quantitative assessment of the error rates using both case data and expert opinion, provides a rational means of obtaining a best estimate of the system's performance. The overall approach that we describe in this paper can be employed more widely to analyse complex health care delivery systems, with the objective of reduced errors, patient risk and excess costs.

A fast Monte Carlo EM algorithm for estimation in latent class model analysis with an application to assess diagnostic accuracy for cervical neoplasia in women with AGC

PubMed Central

Kang, Le; Carter, Randy; Darcy, Kathleen; Kauderer, James; Liao, Shu-Yuan

2013-01-01

In this article we use a latent class model (LCM) with prevalence modeled as a function of covariates to assess diagnostic test accuracy in situations where the true disease status is not observed, but observations on three or more conditionally independent diagnostic tests are available. A fast Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm with binary (disease) diagnostic data is implemented to estimate parameters of interest; namely, sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence of the disease as a function of covariates. To obtain standard errors for confidence interval construction of estimated parameters, the missing information principle is applied to adjust information matrix estimates. We compare the adjusted information matrix based standard error estimates with the bootstrap standard error estimates both obtained using the fast MCEM algorithm through an extensive Monte Carlo study. Simulation demonstrates that the adjusted information matrix approach estimates the standard error similarly with the bootstrap methods under certain scenarios. The bootstrap percentile intervals have satisfactory coverage probabilities. We then apply the LCM analysis to a real data set of 122 subjects from a Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) study of significant cervical lesion (S-CL) diagnosis in women with atypical glandular cells of undetermined significance (AGC) to compare the diagnostic accuracy of a histology-based evaluation, a CA-IX biomarker-based test and a human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA test. PMID:24163493

Quantum illumination for enhanced detection of Rayleigh-fading targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) is an entanglement-enhanced sensing system whose performance advantage over a comparable classical system survives its usage in an entanglement-breaking scenario plagued by loss and noise. In particular, QI's error-probability exponent for discriminating between equally likely hypotheses of target absence or presence is 6 dB higher than that of the optimum classical system using the same transmitted power. This performance advantage, however, presumes that the target return, when present, has known amplitude and phase, a situation that seldom occurs in light detection and ranging (lidar) applications. At lidar wavelengths, most target surfaces are sufficiently rough that their returns are speckled, i.e., they have Rayleigh-distributed amplitudes and uniformly distributed phases. QI's optical parametric amplifier receiver—which affords a 3 dB better-than-classical error-probability exponent for a return with known amplitude and phase—fails to offer any performance gain for Rayleigh-fading targets. We show that the sum-frequency generation receiver [Zhuang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 040801 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.040801]—whose error-probability exponent for a nonfading target achieves QI's full 6 dB advantage over optimum classical operation—outperforms the classical system for Rayleigh-fading targets. In this case, QI's advantage is subexponential: its error probability is lower than the classical system's by a factor of 1 /ln(M κ ¯NS/NB) , when M κ ¯NS/NB≫1 , with M ≫1 being the QI transmitter's time-bandwidth product, NS≪1 its brightness, κ ¯ the target return's average intensity, and NB the background light's brightness.

Dissociating error-based and reinforcement-based loss functions during sensorimotor learning

PubMed Central

McGregor, Heather R.; Mohatarem, Ayman

2017-01-01

It has been proposed that the sensorimotor system uses a loss (cost) function to evaluate potential movements in the presence of random noise. Here we test this idea in the context of both error-based and reinforcement-based learning. In a reaching task, we laterally shifted a cursor relative to true hand position using a skewed probability distribution. This skewed probability distribution had its mean and mode separated, allowing us to dissociate the optimal predictions of an error-based loss function (corresponding to the mean of the lateral shifts) and a reinforcement-based loss function (corresponding to the mode). We then examined how the sensorimotor system uses error feedback and reinforcement feedback, in isolation and combination, when deciding where to aim the hand during a reach. We found that participants compensated differently to the same skewed lateral shift distribution depending on the form of feedback they received. When provided with error feedback, participants compensated based on the mean of the skewed noise. When provided with reinforcement feedback, participants compensated based on the mode. Participants receiving both error and reinforcement feedback continued to compensate based on the mean while repeatedly missing the target, despite receiving auditory, visual and monetary reinforcement feedback that rewarded hitting the target. Our work shows that reinforcement-based and error-based learning are separable and can occur independently. Further, when error and reinforcement feedback are in conflict, the sensorimotor system heavily weights error feedback over reinforcement feedback. PMID:28753634

Dissociating error-based and reinforcement-based loss functions during sensorimotor learning.

PubMed

Cashaback, Joshua G A; McGregor, Heather R; Mohatarem, Ayman; Gribble, Paul L

2017-07-01

It has been proposed that the sensorimotor system uses a loss (cost) function to evaluate potential movements in the presence of random noise. Here we test this idea in the context of both error-based and reinforcement-based learning. In a reaching task, we laterally shifted a cursor relative to true hand position using a skewed probability distribution. This skewed probability distribution had its mean and mode separated, allowing us to dissociate the optimal predictions of an error-based loss function (corresponding to the mean of the lateral shifts) and a reinforcement-based loss function (corresponding to the mode). We then examined how the sensorimotor system uses error feedback and reinforcement feedback, in isolation and combination, when deciding where to aim the hand during a reach. We found that participants compensated differently to the same skewed lateral shift distribution depending on the form of feedback they received. When provided with error feedback, participants compensated based on the mean of the skewed noise. When provided with reinforcement feedback, participants compensated based on the mode. Participants receiving both error and reinforcement feedback continued to compensate based on the mean while repeatedly missing the target, despite receiving auditory, visual and monetary reinforcement feedback that rewarded hitting the target. Our work shows that reinforcement-based and error-based learning are separable and can occur independently. Further, when error and reinforcement feedback are in conflict, the sensorimotor system heavily weights error feedback over reinforcement feedback.

Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions aimed at preventing medication error at hospital admission (medicines reconciliation).

PubMed

Karnon, Jonathan; Campbell, Fiona; Czoski-Murray, Carolyn

2009-04-01

Medication errors can lead to preventable adverse drug events (pADEs) that have significant cost and health implications. Errors often occur at care interfaces, and various interventions have been devised to reduce medication errors at the point of admission to hospital. The aim of this study is to assess the incremental costs and effects [measured as quality adjusted life years (QALYs)] of a range of such interventions for which evidence of effectiveness exists. A previously published medication errors model was adapted to describe the pathway of errors occurring at admission through to the occurrence of pADEs. The baseline model was populated using literature-based values, and then calibrated to observed outputs. Evidence of effects was derived from a systematic review of interventions aimed at preventing medication error at hospital admission. All five interventions, for which evidence of effectiveness was identified, are estimated to be extremely cost-effective when compared with the baseline scenario. Pharmacist-led reconciliation intervention has the highest expected net benefits, and a probability of being cost-effective of over 60% by a QALY value of pound10 000. The medication errors model provides reasonably strong evidence that some form of intervention to improve medicines reconciliation is a cost-effective use of NHS resources. The variation in the reported effectiveness of the few identified studies of medication error interventions illustrates the need for extreme attention to detail in the development of interventions, but also in their evaluation and may justify the primary evaluation of more than one specification of included interventions.

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Camp, J. B.;

Method of estimating natural recharge to the Edwards Aquifer in the San Antonio area, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso

1978-01-01

The principal errors in the estimates of annual recharge are related to errors in estimating runoff in ungaged areas, which represent about 30 percent of the infiltration area. The estimated long-term average annual recharge in each basin, however, is probably representative of the actual recharge because the averaging procedure tends to cancel out the major errors.

J-Plus: Morphological Classification Of Compact And Extended Sources By Pdf Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Sanjuan, C.; Vázquez-Ramió, H.; Varela, J.; Spinoso, D.; Cristóbal-Hornillos, D.; Viironen, K.; Muniesa, D.; J-PLUS Collaboration

2017-10-01

We present a morphological classification of J-PLUS EDR sources into compact (i.e. stars) and extended (i.e. galaxies). Such classification is based on the Bayesian modelling of the concentration distribution, including observational errors and magnitude + sky position priors. We provide the star / galaxy probability of each source computed from the gri images. The comparison with the SDSS number counts support our classification up to r 21. The 31.7 deg² analised comprises 150k stars and 101k galaxies.

A Method to Estimate the Probability that any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within any Radius of any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2011-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud to ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: probability versus inductive confirmation.

PubMed

Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena

2013-02-01

Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such accounts with a different reading of the phenomenon based on the notion of inductive confirmation as defined by contemporary Bayesian theorists. Averaging rule hypotheses along with the random error model and many other existing proposals are shown to all imply that conjunction fallacy rates would rise as the perceived probability of the added conjunct does. By contrast, our account predicts that the conjunction fallacy depends on the added conjunct being perceived as inductively confirmed. Four studies are reported in which the judged probability versus confirmation of the added conjunct have been systematically manipulated and dissociated. The results consistently favor a confirmation-theoretic account of the conjunction fallacy against competing views. Our proposal is also discussed in connection with related issues in the study of human inductive reasoning. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

A Method to Estimate the Probability that Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within Any Radius of Any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa; Roeder, WIlliam P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2011-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Legal consequences of the moral duty to report errors.

PubMed

Hall, Jacqulyn Kay

2003-09-01

Increasingly, clinicians are under a moral duty to report errors to the patients who are injured by such errors. The sources of this duty are identified, and its probable impact on malpractice litigation and criminal law is discussed. The potential consequences of enforcing this new moral duty as a minimum in law are noted. One predicted consequence is that the trend will be accelerated toward government payment of compensation for errors. The effect of truth-telling on individuals is discussed.

An extended Reed Solomon decoder design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, J.; Owsley, P.; Purviance, J.

1991-01-01

It has previously been shown that the Reed-Solomon (RS) codes can correct errors beyond the Singleton and Rieger Bounds with an arbitrarily small probability of a miscorrect. That is, an (n,k) RS code can correct more than (n-k)/2 errors. An implementation of such an RS decoder is presented in this paper. An existing RS decoder, the AHA4010, is utilized in this work. This decoder is especially useful for errors which are patterned with a long burst plus some random errors.

Fifty Years of THERP and Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring

2012-06-01

In 1962 at a Human Factors Society symposium, Alan Swain presented a paper introducing a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). This was followed in 1963 by a Sandia Laboratories monograph outlining basic human error quantification using THERP and, in 1964, by a special journal edition of Human Factors on quantification of human performance. Throughout the 1960s, Swain and his colleagues focused on collecting human performance data for the Sandia Human Error Rate Bank (SHERB), primarily in connection with supporting the reliability of nuclear weapons assembly in the US. In 1969, Swain met with Jens Rasmussen of Risø Nationalmore » Laboratory and discussed the applicability of THERP to nuclear power applications. By 1975, in WASH-1400, Swain had articulated the use of THERP for nuclear power applications, and the approach was finalized in the watershed publication of the NUREG/CR-1278 in 1983. THERP is now 50 years old, and remains the most well known and most widely used HRA method. In this paper, the author discusses the history of THERP, based on published reports and personal communication and interviews with Swain. The author also outlines the significance of THERP. The foundations of human reliability analysis are found in THERP: human failure events, task analysis, performance shaping factors, human error probabilities, dependence, event trees, recovery, and pre- and post-initiating events were all introduced in THERP. While THERP is not without its detractors, and it is showing signs of its age in the face of newer technological applications, the longevity of THERP is a testament of its tremendous significance. THERP started the field of human reliability analysis. This paper concludes with a discussion of THERP in the context of newer methods, which can be seen as extensions of or departures from Swain’s pioneering work.« less

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Does raising type 1 error rate improve power to detect interactions in linear regression models? A simulation study.

PubMed

Durand, Casey P

2013-01-01

Statistical interactions are a common component of data analysis across a broad range of scientific disciplines. However, the statistical power to detect interactions is often undesirably low. One solution is to elevate the Type 1 error rate so that important interactions are not missed in a low power situation. To date, no study has quantified the effects of this practice on power in a linear regression model. A Monte Carlo simulation study was performed. A continuous dependent variable was specified, along with three types of interactions: continuous variable by continuous variable; continuous by dichotomous; and dichotomous by dichotomous. For each of the three scenarios, the interaction effect sizes, sample sizes, and Type 1 error rate were varied, resulting in a total of 240 unique simulations. In general, power to detect the interaction effect was either so low or so high at α = 0.05 that raising the Type 1 error rate only served to increase the probability of including a spurious interaction in the model. A small number of scenarios were identified in which an elevated Type 1 error rate may be justified. Routinely elevating Type 1 error rate when testing interaction effects is not an advisable practice. Researchers are best served by positing interaction effects a priori and accounting for them when conducting sample size calculations.

Error-related negativities elicited by monetary loss and cues that predict loss.

PubMed

Dunning, Jonathan P; Hajcak, Greg

2007-11-19

Event-related potential studies have reported error-related negativity following both error commission and feedback indicating errors or monetary loss. The present study examined whether error-related negativities could be elicited by a predictive cue presented prior to both the decision and subsequent feedback in a gambling task. Participants were presented with a cue that indicated the probability of reward on the upcoming trial (0, 50, and 100%). Results showed a negative deflection in the event-related potential in response to loss cues compared with win cues; this waveform shared a similar latency and morphology with the traditional feedback error-related negativity.

Quantum error-correction failure distributions: Comparison of coherent and stochastic error models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Jeff P.; Trout, Colin J.; Lucarelli, Dennis; Clader, B. D.

2017-06-01

We compare failure distributions of quantum error correction circuits for stochastic errors and coherent errors. We utilize a fully coherent simulation of a fault-tolerant quantum error correcting circuit for a d =3 Steane and surface code. We find that the output distributions are markedly different for the two error models, showing that no simple mapping between the two error models exists. Coherent errors create very broad and heavy-tailed failure distributions. This suggests that they are susceptible to outlier events and that mean statistics, such as pseudothreshold estimates, may not provide the key figure of merit. This provides further statistical insight into why coherent errors can be so harmful for quantum error correction. These output probability distributions may also provide a useful metric that can be utilized when optimizing quantum error correcting codes and decoding procedures for purely coherent errors.

Human-computer interaction in multitask situations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouse, W. B.

1977-01-01

Human-computer interaction in multitask decisionmaking situations is considered, and it is proposed that humans and computers have overlapping responsibilities. Queueing theory is employed to model this dynamic approach to the allocation of responsibility between human and computer. Results of simulation experiments are used to illustrate the effects of several system variables including number of tasks, mean time between arrivals of action-evoking events, human-computer speed mismatch, probability of computer error, probability of human error, and the level of feedback between human and computer. Current experimental efforts are discussed and the practical issues involved in designing human-computer systems for multitask situations are considered.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Accurate Sample Assignment in a Multiplexed, Ultrasensitive, High-Throughput Sequencing Assay for Minimal Residual Disease.

PubMed

Bartram, Jack; Mountjoy, Edward; Brooks, Tony; Hancock, Jeremy; Williamson, Helen; Wright, Gary; Moppett, John; Goulden, Nick; Hubank, Mike

2016-07-01

High-throughput sequencing (HTS) (next-generation sequencing) of the rearranged Ig and T-cell receptor genes promises to be less expensive and more sensitive than current methods of monitoring minimal residual disease (MRD) in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. However, the adoption of new approaches by clinical laboratories requires careful evaluation of all potential sources of error and the development of strategies to ensure the highest accuracy. Timely and efficient clinical use of HTS platforms will depend on combining multiple samples (multiplexing) in each sequencing run. Here we examine the Ig heavy-chain gene HTS on the Illumina MiSeq platform for MRD. We identify errors associated with multiplexing that could potentially impact the accuracy of MRD analysis. We optimize a strategy that combines high-purity, sequence-optimized oligonucleotides, dual indexing, and an error-aware demultiplexing approach to minimize errors and maximize sensitivity. We present a probability-based, demultiplexing pipeline Error-Aware Demultiplexer that is suitable for all MiSeq strategies and accurately assigns samples to the correct identifier without excessive loss of data. Finally, using controls quantified by digital PCR, we show that HTS-MRD can accurately detect as few as 1 in 10(6) copies of specific leukemic MRD. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the confusion matrix method in the validation of an automated system for measuring feeding behaviour of cattle.

PubMed

Ruuska, Salla; Hämäläinen, Wilhelmiina; Kajava, Sari; Mughal, Mikaela; Matilainen, Pekka; Mononen, Jaakko

2018-03-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate empirically confusion matrices in device validation. We compared the confusion matrix method to linear regression and error indices in the validation of a device measuring feeding behaviour of dairy cattle. In addition, we studied how to extract additional information on classification errors with confusion probabilities. The data consisted of 12 h behaviour measurements from five dairy cows; feeding and other behaviour were detected simultaneously with a device and from video recordings. The resulting 216 000 pairs of classifications were used to construct confusion matrices and calculate performance measures. In addition, hourly durations of each behaviour were calculated and the accuracy of measurements was evaluated with linear regression and error indices. All three validation methods agreed when the behaviour was detected very accurately or inaccurately. Otherwise, in the intermediate cases, the confusion matrix method and error indices produced relatively concordant results, but the linear regression method often disagreed with them. Our study supports the use of confusion matrix analysis in validation since it is robust to any data distribution and type of relationship, it makes a stringent evaluation of validity, and it offers extra information on the type and sources of errors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Error suppression and correction for quantum annealing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lidar, Daniel

While adiabatic quantum computing and quantum annealing enjoy a certain degree of inherent robustness against excitations and control errors, there is no escaping the need for error correction or suppression. In this talk I will give an overview of our work on the development of such error correction and suppression methods. We have experimentally tested one such method combining encoding, energy penalties and decoding, on a D-Wave Two processor, with encouraging results. Mean field theory shows that this can be explained in terms of a softening of the closing of the gap due to the energy penalty, resulting in protection against excitations that occur near the quantum critical point. Decoding recovers population from excited states and enhances the success probability of quantum annealing. Moreover, we have demonstrated that using repetition codes with increasing code distance can lower the effective temperature of the annealer. References: K.L. Pudenz, T. Albash, D.A. Lidar, ``Error corrected quantum annealing with hundreds of qubits'', Nature Commun. 5, 3243 (2014). K.L. Pudenz, T. Albash, D.A. Lidar, ``Quantum annealing correction for random Ising problems'', Phys. Rev. A. 91, 042302 (2015). S. Matsuura, H. Nishimori, T. Albash, D.A. Lidar, ``Mean Field Analysis of Quantum Annealing Correction''. arXiv:1510.07709. W. Vinci et al., in preparation.

An experimental study of fault propagation in a jet-engine controller. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Gwan Seung

1990-01-01

An experimental analysis of the impact of transient faults on a microprocessor-based jet engine controller, used in the Boeing 747 and 757 aircrafts is described. A hierarchical simulation environment which allows the injection of transients during run-time and the tracing of their impact is described. Verification of the accuracy of this approach is also provided. A determination of the probability that a transient results in latch, pin or functional errors is made. Given a transient fault, there is approximately an 80 percent chance that there is no impact on the chip. An empirical model to depict the process of error exploration and degeneration in the target system is derived. The model shows that, if no latch errors occur within eight clock cycles, no significant damage is likely to happen. Thus, the overall impact of a transient is well contained. A state transition model is also derived from the measured data, to describe the error propagation characteristics within the chip, and to quantify the impact of transients on the external environment. The model is used to identify and isolate the critical fault propagation paths, the module most sensitive to fault propagation and the module with the highest potential of causing external pin errors.

Assessment of imperfect detection of blister rust in whitebark pine within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, Wilson J.; Irvine, Kathryn M.

2017-01-01

We examined data on white pine blister rust (blister rust) collected during the monitoring of whitebark pine trees in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (from 2004-2015). Summaries of repeat observations performed by multiple independent observers are reviewed and discussed. These summaries show variability among observers and the potential for errors being made in blister rust status. Based on this assessment, we utilized occupancy models to analyze blister rust prevalence while explicitly accounting for imperfect detection. Available covariates were used to model both the probability of a tree being infected with blister rust and the probability of an observer detecting the infection. The fitted model provided strong evidence that the probability of blister rust infection increases as tree diameter increases and decreases as site elevation increases. Most importantly, we found evidence of heterogeneity in detection probabilities related to tree size and average slope of a transect. These results suggested that detecting the presence of blister rust was more difficult in larger trees. Also, there was evidence that blister rust was easier to detect on transects located on steeper slopes. Our model accounted for potential impacts of observer experience on blister rust detection probabilities and also showed moderate variability among the different observers in their ability to detect blister rust. Based on these model results, we suggest that multiple observer sampling continue in future field seasons in order to allow blister rust prevalence estimates to be corrected for imperfect detection. We suggest that the multiple observer effort be spread out across many transects (instead of concentrated at a few each field season) while retaining the overall proportion of trees with multiple observers around 5-20%. Estimates of prevalence are confounded with detection unless it is explicitly accounted for in an analysis and we demonstrate how an occupancy model can be used to do account for this source of observation error.

Assessment and quantification of patient set-up errors in nasopharyngeal cancer patients and their biological and dosimetric impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD), tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP).

PubMed

Boughalia, A; Marcie, S; Fellah, M; Chami, S; Mekki, F

2015-06-01

The aim of this study is to assess and quantify patients' set-up errors using an electronic portal imaging device and to evaluate their dosimetric and biological impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) on predictive models, such as the tumour control probability (TCP) and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). 20 patients treated for nasopharyngeal cancer were enrolled in the radiotherapy-oncology department of HCA. Systematic and random errors were quantified. The dosimetric and biological impact of these set-up errors on the target volume and the organ at risk (OARs) coverage were assessed using calculation of dose-volume histogram, gEUD, TCP and NTCP. For this purpose, an in-house software was developed and used. The standard deviations (1SDs) of the systematic set-up and random set-up errors were calculated for the lateral and subclavicular fields and gave the following results: ∑ = 0.63 ± (0.42) mm and σ = 3.75 ± (0.79) mm, respectively. Thus a planning organ at risk volume (PRV) margin of 3 mm was defined around the OARs, and a 5-mm margin used around the clinical target volume. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP calculations obtained with and without set-up errors have shown increased values for tumour, where ΔgEUD (tumour) = 1.94% Gy (p = 0.00721) and ΔTCP = 2.03%. The toxicity of OARs was quantified using gEUD and NTCP. The values of ΔgEUD (OARs) vary from 0.78% to 5.95% in the case of the brainstem and the optic chiasm, respectively. The corresponding ΔNTCP varies from 0.15% to 0.53%, respectively. The quantification of set-up errors has a dosimetric and biological impact on the tumour and on the OARs. The developed in-house software using the concept of gEUD, TCP and NTCP biological models has been successfully used in this study. It can be used also to optimize the treatment plan established for our patients. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP may be more suitable tools to assess the treatment plans before treating the patients.

Analysis of automatic repeat request methods for deep-space downlinks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollara, F.; Ekroot, L.

1995-01-01

Automatic repeat request (ARQ) methods cannot increase the capacity of a memoryless channel. However, they can be used to decrease the complexity of the channel-coding system to achieve essentially error-free transmission and to reduce link margins when the channel characteristics are poorly predictable. This article considers ARQ methods on a power-limited channel (e.g., the deep-space channel), where it is important to minimize the total power needed to transmit the data, as opposed to a bandwidth-limited channel (e.g., terrestrial data links), where the spectral efficiency or the total required transmission time is the most relevant performance measure. In the analysis, we compare the performance of three reference concatenated coded systems used in actual deep-space missions to that obtainable by ARQ methods using the same codes, in terms of required power, time to transmit with a given number of retransmissions, and achievable probability of word error. The ultimate limits of ARQ with an arbitrary number of retransmissions are also derived.

Correcting for Measurement Error in Time-Varying Covariates in Marginal Structural Models.

PubMed

Kyle, Ryan P; Moodie, Erica E M; Klein, Marina B; Abrahamowicz, Michał

2016-08-01

Unbiased estimation of causal parameters from marginal structural models (MSMs) requires a fundamental assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Unfortunately, the time-varying covariates used to obtain inverse probability weights are often error-prone. Although substantial measurement error in important confounders is known to undermine control of confounders in conventional unweighted regression models, this issue has received comparatively limited attention in the MSM literature. Here we propose a novel application of the simulation-extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure to address measurement error in time-varying covariates, and we compare 2 approaches. The direct approach to SIMEX-based correction targets outcome model parameters, while the indirect approach corrects the weights estimated using the exposure model. We assess the performance of the proposed methods in simulations under different clinically plausible assumptions. The simulations demonstrate that measurement errors in time-dependent covariates may induce substantial bias in MSM estimators of causal effects of time-varying exposures, and that both proposed SIMEX approaches yield practically unbiased estimates in scenarios featuring low-to-moderate degrees of error. We illustrate the proposed approach in a simple analysis of the relationship between sustained virological response and liver fibrosis progression among persons infected with hepatitis C virus, while accounting for measurement error in γ-glutamyltransferase, using data collected in the Canadian Co-infection Cohort Study from 2003 to 2014. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, H; Chen, Z; Nath, R

Purpose: kV fluoroscopic imaging combined with MV treatment beam imaging has been investigated for intrafractional motion monitoring and correction. It is, however, subject to additional kV imaging dose to normal tissue. To balance tracking accuracy and imaging dose, we previously proposed an adaptive imaging strategy to dynamically decide future imaging type and moments based on motion tracking uncertainty. kV imaging may be used continuously for maximal accuracy or only when the position uncertainty (probability of out of threshold) is high if a preset imaging dose limit is considered. In this work, we propose more accurate methods to estimate tracking uncertaintymore » through analyzing acquired data in real-time. Methods: We simulated motion tracking process based on a previously developed imaging framework (MV + initial seconds of kV imaging) using real-time breathing data from 42 patients. Motion tracking errors for each time point were collected together with the time point’s corresponding features, such as tumor motion speed and 2D tracking error of previous time points, etc. We tested three methods for error uncertainty estimation based on the features: conditional probability distribution, logistic regression modeling, and support vector machine (SVM) classification to detect errors exceeding a threshold. Results: For conditional probability distribution, polynomial regressions on three features (previous tracking error, prediction quality, and cosine of the angle between the trajectory and the treatment beam) showed strong correlation with the variation (uncertainty) of the mean 3D tracking error and its standard deviation: R-square = 0.94 and 0.90, respectively. The logistic regression and SVM classification successfully identified about 95% of tracking errors exceeding 2.5mm threshold. Conclusion: The proposed methods can reliably estimate the motion tracking uncertainty in real-time, which can be used to guide adaptive additional imaging to confirm the tumor is within the margin or initialize motion compensation if it is out of the margin.« less

Stochastic approach for an unbiased estimation of the probability of a successful separation in conventional chromatography and sequential elution liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Ennis, Erin J; Foley, Joe P

2016-07-15

A stochastic approach was utilized to estimate the probability of a successful isocratic or gradient separation in conventional chromatography for numbers of sample components, peak capacities, and saturation factors ranging from 2 to 30, 20-300, and 0.017-1, respectively. The stochastic probabilities were obtained under conditions of (i) constant peak width ("gradient" conditions) and (ii) peak width increasing linearly with time ("isocratic/constant N" conditions). The isocratic and gradient probabilities obtained stochastically were compared with the probabilities predicted by Martin et al. [Anal. Chem., 58 (1986) 2200-2207] and Davis and Stoll [J. Chromatogr. A, (2014) 128-142]; for a given number of components and peak capacity the same trend is always observed: probability obtained with the isocratic stochastic approach

Finding Useful Questions: On Bayesian Diagnosticity, Probability, Impact, and Information Gain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Jonathan D.

2005-01-01

Several norms for how people should assess a question's usefulness have been proposed, notably Bayesian diagnosticity, information gain (mutual information), Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact (absolute change). Several probabilistic models of previous experiments on categorization, covariation assessment,…

Teaching Uncertainties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duerdoth, Ian

2009-01-01

The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

Circular Probable Error for Circular and Noncircular Gaussian Impacts

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

1M simulated impacts ph(k)=mean(imp(:,1).^2+imp(:,2).^2<=CEP^2); % hit frequency on CEP end phit (j)=mean(ph...avg 100 hit frequencies to “incr n” end % GRAPHICS plot(i, phit ,’r-’); % error exponent versus Ph estimate

Modeling marine oily wastewater treatment by a probabilistic agent-based approach.

PubMed

Jing, Liang; Chen, Bing; Zhang, Baiyu; Ye, Xudong

2018-02-01

This study developed a novel probabilistic agent-based approach for modeling of marine oily wastewater treatment processes. It begins first by constructing a probability-based agent simulation model, followed by a global sensitivity analysis and a genetic algorithm-based calibration. The proposed modeling approach was tested through a case study of the removal of naphthalene from marine oily wastewater using UV irradiation. The removal of naphthalene was described by an agent-based simulation model using 8 types of agents and 11 reactions. Each reaction was governed by a probability parameter to determine its occurrence. The modeling results showed that the root mean square errors between modeled and observed removal rates were 8.73 and 11.03% for calibration and validation runs, respectively. Reaction competition was analyzed by comparing agent-based reaction probabilities, while agents' heterogeneity was visualized by plotting their real-time spatial distribution, showing a strong potential for reactor design and process optimization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Syndrome Diagnosis: Human Intuition or Machine Intelligence?

PubMed Central

Braaten, Øivind; Friestad, Johannes

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether artificial intelligence methods can represent objective methods that are essential in syndrome diagnosis. Most syndromes have no external criterion standard of diagnosis. The predictive value of a clinical sign used in diagnosis is dependent on the prior probability of the syndrome diagnosis. Clinicians often misjudge the probabilities involved. Syndromology needs objective methods to ensure diagnostic consistency, and take prior probabilities into account. We applied two basic artificial intelligence methods to a database of machine-generated patients - a ‘vector method’ and a set method. As reference methods we ran an ID3 algorithm, a cluster analysis and a naive Bayes’ calculation on the same patient series. The overall diagnostic error rate for the the vector algorithm was 0.93%, and for the ID3 0.97%. For the clinical signs found by the set method, the predictive values varied between 0.71 and 1.0. The artificial intelligence methods that we used, proved simple, robust and powerful, and represent objective diagnostic methods. PMID:19415142

On the performance of energy detection-based CR with SC diversity over IG channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Pappu Kumar; Soni, Sanjay Kumar; Jain, Priyanka

2017-12-01

Cognitive radio (CR) is a viable 5G technology to address the scarcity of the spectrum. Energy detection-based sensing is known to be the simplest method as far as hardware complexity is concerned. In this paper, the performance of spectrum sensing-based energy detection technique in CR networks over inverse Gaussian channel for selection combining diversity technique is analysed. More specifically, accurate analytical expressions for the average detection probability under different detection scenarios such as single channel (no diversity) and with diversity reception are derived and evaluated. Further, the detection threshold parameter is optimised by minimising the probability of error over several diversity branches. The results clearly show the significant improvement in the probability of detection when optimised threshold parameter is applied. The impact of shadowing parameters on the performance of energy detector is studied in terms of complimentary receiver operating characteristic curve. To verify the correctness of our analysis, the derived analytical expressions are corroborated via exact result and Monte Carlo simulations.

Discovering Peripheral Arterial Disease Cases from Radiology Notes Using Natural Language Processing

PubMed Central

Savova, Guergana K.; Fan, Jin; Ye, Zi; Murphy, Sean P.; Zheng, Jiaping; Chute, Christopher G.; Kullo, Iftikhar J.

2010-01-01

As part of the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics Network, we applied, extended and evaluated an open source clinical Natural Language Processing system, Mayo’s Clinical Text Analysis and Knowledge Extraction System, for the discovery of peripheral arterial disease cases from radiology reports. The manually created gold standard consisted of 223 positive, 19 negative, 63 probable and 150 unknown cases. Overall accuracy agreement between the system and the gold standard was 0.93 as compared to a named entity recognition baseline of 0.46. Sensitivity for the positive, probable and unknown cases was 0.93–0.96, and for the negative cases was 0.72. Specificity and negative predictive value for all categories were in the 90’s. The positive predictive value for the positive and unknown categories was in the high 90’s, for the negative category was 0.84, and for the probable category was 0.63. We outline the main sources of errors and suggest improvements. PMID:21347073

Syndrome diagnosis: human intuition or machine intelligence?

PubMed

Braaten, Oivind; Friestad, Johannes

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether artificial intelligence methods can represent objective methods that are essential in syndrome diagnosis. Most syndromes have no external criterion standard of diagnosis. The predictive value of a clinical sign used in diagnosis is dependent on the prior probability of the syndrome diagnosis. Clinicians often misjudge the probabilities involved. Syndromology needs objective methods to ensure diagnostic consistency, and take prior probabilities into account. We applied two basic artificial intelligence methods to a database of machine-generated patients - a 'vector method' and a set method. As reference methods we ran an ID3 algorithm, a cluster analysis and a naive Bayes' calculation on the same patient series. The overall diagnostic error rate for the the vector algorithm was 0.93%, and for the ID3 0.97%. For the clinical signs found by the set method, the predictive values varied between 0.71 and 1.0. The artificial intelligence methods that we used, proved simple, robust and powerful, and represent objective diagnostic methods.

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herzog, James P. (Inventor); Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

2005-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

2006-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Surveillance System and Method having an Adaptive Sequential Probability Fault Detection Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

2008-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Distributed Immune Systems for Wireless Network Information Assurance

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-26

ratio test (SPRT), where the goal is to optimize a hypothesis testing problem given a trade-off between the probability of errors and the...using cumulative sum (CUSUM) and Girshik-Rubin-Shiryaev (GRSh) statistics. In sequential versions of the problem the sequential probability ratio ...the more complicated problems, in particular those where no clear mean can be established. We developed algorithms based on the sequential probability

Prediction of Foreign Object Debris/Damage type based in human factors for aeronautics using logistic regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romo, David Ricardo

Foreign Object Debris/Damage (FOD) has been an issue for military and commercial aircraft manufacturers since the early ages of aviation and aerospace. Currently, aerospace is growing rapidly and the chances of FOD presence are growing as well. One of the principal causes in manufacturing is the human error. The cost associated with human error in commercial and military aircrafts is approximately accountable for 4 billion dollars per year. This problem is currently addressed with prevention programs, elimination techniques, and designation of FOD areas, controlled access, restrictions of personal items entering designated areas, tool accountability, and the use of technology such as Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags, etc. All of the efforts mentioned before, have not show a significant occurrence reduction in terms of manufacturing processes. On the contrary, a repetitive path of occurrence is present, and the cost associated has not declined in a significant manner. In order to address the problem, this thesis proposes a new approach using statistical analysis. The effort of this thesis is to create a predictive model using historical categorical data from an aircraft manufacturer only focusing in human error causes. The use of contingency tables, natural logarithm of the odds and probability transformation is used in order to provide the predicted probabilities of each aircraft. A case of study is shown in this thesis in order to show the applied methodology. As a result, this approach is able to predict the possible outcomes of FOD by the workstation/area needed, and monthly predictions per workstation. This thesis is intended to be the starting point of statistical data analysis regarding FOD in human factors. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the areas where human error is the primary cause of FOD occurrence in order to design and implement accurate solutions. The advantages of the proposed methodology can go from the reduction of cost production, quality issues, repair cost, and assembly process time. Finally, a more reliable process is achieved, and the proposed methodology may be used in other aircrafts.

Analysis of a Statistical Relationship Between Dose and Error Tallies in Semiconductor Digital Integrated Circuits for Application to Radiation Monitoring Over a Wireless Sensor Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colins, Karen; Li, Liqian; Liu, Yu

2017-05-01

Mass production of widely used semiconductor digital integrated circuits (ICs) has lowered unit costs to the level of ordinary daily consumables of a few dollars. It is therefore reasonable to contemplate the idea of an engineered system that consumes unshielded low-cost ICs for the purpose of measuring gamma radiation dose. Underlying the idea is the premise of a measurable correlation between an observable property of ICs and radiation dose. Accumulation of radiation-damage-induced state changes or error events is such a property. If correct, the premise could make possible low-cost wide-area radiation dose measurement systems, instantiated as wireless sensor networks (WSNs) with unshielded consumable ICs as nodes, communicating error events to a remote base station. The premise has been investigated quantitatively for the first time in laboratory experiments and related analyses performed at the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories. State changes or error events were recorded in real time during irradiation of samples of ICs of different types in a 60Co gamma cell. From the error-event sequences, empirical distribution functions of dose were generated. The distribution functions were inverted and probabilities scaled by total error events, to yield plots of the relationship between dose and error tallies. Positive correlation was observed, and discrete functional dependence of dose quantiles on error tallies was measured, demonstrating the correctness of the premise. The idea of an engineered system that consumes unshielded low-cost ICs in a WSN, for the purpose of measuring gamma radiation dose over wide areas, is therefore tenable.

Evaluation of Satellite and Model Precipitation Products Over Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, M. T.; Amjad, M.

2017-12-01

Satellite-based remote sensing, gauge stations, and models are the three major platforms to acquire precipitation dataset. Among them satellites and models have the advantage of retrieving spatially and temporally continuous and consistent datasets, while the uncertainty estimates of these retrievals are often required for many hydrological studies to understand the source and the magnitude of the uncertainty in hydrological response parameters. In this study, satellite and model precipitation data products are validated over various temporal scales (daily, 3-daily, 7-daily, 10-daily and monthly) using in-situ measured precipitation observations from a network of 733 gauges from all over the Turkey. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 and European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model estimates (daily, 3-daily, 7-daily and 10-daily accumulated forecast) are used in this study. Retrievals are evaluated for their mean and standard deviation and their accuracies are evaluated via bias, root mean square error, error standard deviation and correlation coefficient statistics. Intensity vs frequency analysis and some contingency table statistics like percent correct, probability of detection, false alarm ratio and critical success index are determined using daily time-series. Both ECMWF forecasts and TRMM observations, on average, overestimate the precipitation compared to gauge estimates; wet biases are 10.26 mm/month and 8.65 mm/month, respectively for ECMWF and TRMM. RMSE values of ECMWF forecasts and TRMM estimates are 39.69 mm/month and 41.55 mm/month, respectively. Monthly correlations between Gauges-ECMWF, Gauges-TRMM and ECMWF-TRMM are 0.76, 0.73 and 0.81, respectively. The model and the satellite error statistics are further compared against the gauges error statistics based on inverse distance weighting (IWD) analysis. Both the model and satellite data have less IWD errors (14.72 mm/month and 10.75 mm/month, respectively) compared to gauges IWD error (21.58 mm/month). These results show that, on average, ECMWF forecast data have higher skill than TRMM observations. Overall, both ECMWF forecast data and TRMM observations show good potential for catchment scale hydrological analysis.

An approximate methods approach to probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclung, R. C.; Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Thacker, B. H.; Burnside, O. H.

1989-01-01

A major research and technology program in Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) is currently being sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center with Southwest Research Institute as the prime contractor. This program is motivated by the need to accurately predict structural response in an environment where the loadings, the material properties, and even the structure may be considered random. The heart of PSAM is a software package which combines advanced structural analysis codes with a fast probability integration (FPI) algorithm for the efficient calculation of stochastic structural response. The basic idea of PAAM is simple: make an approximate calculation of system response, including calculation of the associated probabilities, with minimal computation time and cost, based on a simplified representation of the geometry, loads, and material. The deterministic solution resulting should give a reasonable and realistic description of performance-limiting system responses, although some error will be inevitable. If the simple model has correctly captured the basic mechanics of the system, however, including the proper functional dependence of stress, frequency, etc. on design parameters, then the response sensitivities calculated may be of significantly higher accuracy.

Degradation data analysis based on a generalized Wiener process subject to measurement error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Junxing; Wang, Zhihua; Zhang, Yongbo; Fu, Huimin; Liu, Chengrui; Krishnaswamy, Sridhar

2017-09-01

Wiener processes have received considerable attention in degradation modeling over the last two decades. In this paper, we propose a generalized Wiener process degradation model that takes unit-to-unit variation, time-correlated structure and measurement error into considerations simultaneously. The constructed methodology subsumes a series of models studied in the literature as limiting cases. A simple method is given to determine the transformed time scale forms of the Wiener process degradation model. Then model parameters can be estimated based on a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the probability distribution function (PDF) of the Wiener process with measurement errors are given based on the concept of the first hitting time (FHT). The percentiles of performance degradation (PD) and failure time distribution (FTD) are also obtained. Finally, a comprehensive simulation study is accomplished to demonstrate the necessity of incorporating measurement errors in the degradation model and the efficiency of the proposed model. Two illustrative real applications involving the degradation of carbon-film resistors and the wear of sliding metal are given. The comparative results show that the constructed approach can derive a reasonable result and an enhanced inference precision.

Analysis of counting errors in the phase/Doppler particle analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oldenburg, John R.

1987-01-01

NASA is investigating the application of the Phase Doppler measurement technique to provide improved drop sizing and liquid water content measurements in icing research. The magnitude of counting errors were analyzed because these errors contribute to inaccurate liquid water content measurements. The Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer counting errors due to data transfer losses and coincidence losses were analyzed for data input rates from 10 samples/sec to 70,000 samples/sec. Coincidence losses were calculated by determining the Poisson probability of having more than one event occurring during the droplet signal time. The magnitude of the coincidence loss can be determined, and for less than a 15 percent loss, corrections can be made. The data transfer losses were estimated for representative data transfer rates. With direct memory access enabled, data transfer losses are less than 5 percent for input rates below 2000 samples/sec. With direct memory access disabled losses exceeded 20 percent at a rate of 50 samples/sec preventing accurate number density or mass flux measurements. The data transfer losses of a new signal processor were analyzed and found to be less than 1 percent for rates under 65,000 samples/sec.

Evaluation of CDMA system capacity for mobile satellite system applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Partrick O.; Geraniotis, Evaggelos A.

1988-01-01

A specific Direct-Sequence/Pseudo-Noise (DS/PN) Code-Division Multiple-Access (CDMA) mobile satellite system (MSAT) architecture is discussed. The performance of this system is evaluated in terms of the maximum number of active MSAT subscribers that can be supported at a given uncoded bit-error probability. The evaluation decouples the analysis of the multiple-access capability (i.e., the number of instantaneous user signals) from the analysis of the multiple-access mutliplier effect allowed by the use of CDMA with burst-modem operation. We combine the results of these two analyses and present numerical results for scenarios of interest to the mobile satellite system community.

Reciprocally-Benefited Secure Transmission for Spectrum Sensing-Based Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Dawei; Ren, Pinyi; Du, Qinghe; Sun, Li; Wang, Yichen

2016-01-01

The rapid proliferation of independently-designed and -deployed wireless sensor networks extremely crowds the wireless spectrum and promotes the emergence of cognitive radio sensor networks (CRSN). In CRSN, the sensor node (SN) can make full use of the unutilized licensed spectrum, and the spectrum efficiency is greatly improved. However, inevitable spectrum sensing errors will adversely interfere with the primary transmission, which may result in primary transmission outage. To compensate the adverse effect of spectrum sensing errors, we propose a reciprocally-benefited secure transmission strategy, in which SN’s interference to the eavesdropper is employed to protect the primary confidential messages while the CRSN is also rewarded with a loose spectrum sensing error probability constraint. Specifically, according to the spectrum sensing results and primary users’ activities, there are four system states in this strategy. For each state, we analyze the primary secrecy rate and the SN’s transmission rate by taking into account the spectrum sensing errors. Then, the SN’s transmit power is optimally allocated for each state so that the average transmission rate of CRSN is maximized under the constraint of the primary maximum permitted secrecy outage probability. In addition, the performance tradeoff between the transmission rate of CRSN and the primary secrecy outage probability is investigated. Moreover, we analyze the primary secrecy rate for the asymptotic scenarios and derive the closed-form expression of the SN’s transmission outage probability. Simulation results show that: (1) the performance of the SN’s average throughput in the proposed strategy outperforms the conventional overlay strategy; (2) both the primary network and CRSN benefit from the proposed strategy. PMID:27897988

Analysis of multiuser mixed RF/FSO relay networks for performance improvements in Cloud Computing-Based Radio Access Networks (CC-RANs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alimi, Isiaka A.; Monteiro, Paulo P.; Teixeira, António L.

2017-11-01

The key paths toward the fifth generation (5G) network requirements are towards centralized processing and small-cell densification systems that are implemented on the cloud computing-based radio access networks (CC-RANs). The increasing recognitions of the CC-RANs can be attributed to their valuable features regarding system performance optimization and cost-effectiveness. Nevertheless, realization of the stringent requirements of the fronthaul that connects the network elements is highly demanding. In this paper, considering the small-cell network architectures, we present multiuser mixed radio-frequency/free-space optical (RF/FSO) relay networks as feasible technologies for the alleviation of the stringent requirements in the CC-RANs. In this study, we use the end-to-end (e2e) outage probability, average symbol error probability (ASEP), and ergodic channel capacity as the performance metrics in our analysis. Simulation results show the suitability of deployment of mixed RF/FSO schemes in the real-life scenarios.

LabVIEW 2010 Computer Vision Platform Based Virtual Instrument and Its Application for Pitting Corrosion Study

PubMed Central

Ramos, Rogelio; Zlatev, Roumen; Valdez, Benjamin; Stoytcheva, Margarita; Carrillo, Mónica; García, Juan-Francisco

2013-01-01

A virtual instrumentation (VI) system called VI localized corrosion image analyzer (LCIA) based on LabVIEW 2010 was developed allowing rapid automatic and subjective error-free determination of the pits number on large sized corroded specimens. The VI LCIA controls synchronously the digital microscope image taking and its analysis, finally resulting in a map file containing the coordinates of the detected probable pits containing zones on the investigated specimen. The pits area, traverse length, and density are also determined by the VI using binary large objects (blobs) analysis. The resulting map file can be used further by a scanning vibrating electrode technique (SVET) system for rapid (one pass) “true/false” SVET check of the probable zones only passing through the pit's centers avoiding thus the entire specimen scan. A complete SVET scan over the already proved “true” zones could determine the corrosion rate in any of the zones. PMID:23691434

Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Eicker, A.; Forootan, E.; Springer, A.; Longuevergne, L.

2016-08-01

Using data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust "hot spot" regions of high probability of peak anomalous—i.e., with respect to the seasonal cycle—water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/month). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hot spot regions to GRACE results and that most exceptions are located in the tropics. However, a simulation experiment reveals that differences observed by GRACE are statistically significant, and further error analysis suggests that by around the year 2020, it will be possible to detect temporal changes in the frequency of extreme total fluxes (i.e., combined effects of mainly precipitation and floods) for at least 10-20% of the continental area, assuming that we have a continuation of GRACE by its follow-up GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission.

Investigation of an Optimum Detection Scheme for a Star-Field Mapping System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldridge, M. D.; Credeur, L.

1970-01-01

An investigation was made to determine the optimum detection scheme for a star-field mapping system that uses coded detection resulting from starlight shining through specially arranged multiple slits of a reticle. The computer solution of equations derived from a theoretical model showed that the greatest probability of detection for a given star and background intensity occurred with the use of a single transparent slit. However, use of multiple slits improved the system's ability to reject the detection of undesirable lower intensity stars, but only by decreasing the probability of detection for lower intensity stars to be mapped. Also, it was found that the coding arrangement affected the root-mean-square star-position error and that detection is possible with error in the system's detected spin rate, though at a reduced probability.

Discrete coding of stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error in the dorsal striatum.

PubMed

Oyama, Kei; Tateyama, Yukina; Hernádi, István; Tobler, Philippe N; Iijima, Toshio; Tsutsui, Ken-Ichiro

2015-11-01

To investigate how the striatum integrates sensory information with reward information for behavioral guidance, we recorded single-unit activity in the dorsal striatum of head-fixed rats participating in a probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning task with auditory conditioned stimuli (CSs) in which reward probability was fixed for each CS but parametrically varied across CSs. We found that the activity of many neurons was linearly correlated with the reward probability indicated by the CSs. The recorded neurons could be classified according to their firing patterns into functional subtypes coding reward probability in different forms such as stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error. These results suggest that several functional subgroups of dorsal striatal neurons represent different kinds of information formed through extensive prior exposure to CS-reward contingencies. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Discrete coding of stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error in the dorsal striatum

PubMed Central

Oyama, Kei; Tateyama, Yukina; Hernádi, István; Tobler, Philippe N.; Iijima, Toshio

2015-01-01

To investigate how the striatum integrates sensory information with reward information for behavioral guidance, we recorded single-unit activity in the dorsal striatum of head-fixed rats participating in a probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning task with auditory conditioned stimuli (CSs) in which reward probability was fixed for each CS but parametrically varied across CSs. We found that the activity of many neurons was linearly correlated with the reward probability indicated by the CSs. The recorded neurons could be classified according to their firing patterns into functional subtypes coding reward probability in different forms such as stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error. These results suggest that several functional subgroups of dorsal striatal neurons represent different kinds of information formed through extensive prior exposure to CS-reward contingencies. PMID:26378201

Multiplicity Control in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cribbie, Robert A.

2007-01-01

Researchers conducting structural equation modeling analyses rarely, if ever, control for the inflated probability of Type I errors when evaluating the statistical significance of multiple parameters in a model. In this study, the Type I error control, power and true model rates of famsilywise and false discovery rate controlling procedures were…

Probabilities of Occurrence of Baro-Fuze System Errors More Than 1000 Feet Too Low Due to Ignoring the Meteorological Forecast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Charles, B.N.

1955-05-12

Charts of the geographical distribution of the annual and seasonal D-values and their standard deviations at altitudes of 4500, 6000, and 7000 feeet over Eurasia are derived, which are used to estimate the frequency of baro system errors.

Rewriting evolution--"been there, done that".

PubMed

Penny, David

2013-01-01

A recent paper by a science journalist in Nature shows major errors in understanding phylogenies, in this case of placental mammals. The underlying unrooted tree is probably correct, but the placement of the root just reflects a well-known error from the acceleration in the rate of evolution among some myomorph rodents.

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

2010-01-01

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

The effects of recall errors and of selection bias in epidemiologic studies of mobile phone use and cancer risk.

PubMed

Vrijheid, Martine; Deltour, Isabelle; Krewski, Daniel; Sanchez, Marie; Cardis, Elisabeth

2006-07-01

This paper examines the effects of systematic and random errors in recall and of selection bias in case-control studies of mobile phone use and cancer. These sensitivity analyses are based on Monte-Carlo computer simulations and were carried out within the INTERPHONE Study, an international collaborative case-control study in 13 countries. Recall error scenarios simulated plausible values of random and systematic, non-differential and differential recall errors in amount of mobile phone use reported by study subjects. Plausible values for the recall error were obtained from validation studies. Selection bias scenarios assumed varying selection probabilities for cases and controls, mobile phone users, and non-users. Where possible these selection probabilities were based on existing information from non-respondents in INTERPHONE. Simulations used exposure distributions based on existing INTERPHONE data and assumed varying levels of the true risk of brain cancer related to mobile phone use. Results suggest that random recall errors of plausible levels can lead to a large underestimation in the risk of brain cancer associated with mobile phone use. Random errors were found to have larger impact than plausible systematic errors. Differential errors in recall had very little additional impact in the presence of large random errors. Selection bias resulting from underselection of unexposed controls led to J-shaped exposure-response patterns, with risk apparently decreasing at low to moderate exposure levels. The present results, in conjunction with those of the validation studies conducted within the INTERPHONE study, will play an important role in the interpretation of existing and future case-control studies of mobile phone use and cancer risk, including the INTERPHONE study.

Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

PubMed Central

Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

2011-01-01

Some current theories of probabilistic categorization assume that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report two probabilistic-categorization experiments that investigated error discounting by shifting feedback probabilities to new values after different amounts of training. In both experiments, responding gradually became less responsive to errors, and learning was slowed for some time after the feedback shift. Both results are indicative of error discounting. Quantitative modeling of the data revealed that adding a mechanism for error discounting significantly improved the fits of an exemplar-based and a rule-based associative learning model, as well as of a recency-based model of categorization. We conclude that error discounting is an important component of probabilistic learning. PMID:21355666

Modeling of a bubble-memory organization with self-checking translators to achieve high reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouricius, W. G.; Carter, W. C.; Hsieh, E. P.; Wadia, A. B.; Jessep, D. C., Jr.

1973-01-01

Study of the design and modeling of a highly reliable bubble-memory system that has the capabilities of: (1) correcting a single 16-adjacent bit-group error resulting from failures in a single basic storage module (BSM), and (2) detecting with a probability greater than 0.99 any double errors resulting from failures in BSM's. The results of the study justify the design philosophy adopted of employing memory data encoding and a translator to correct single group errors and detect double group errors to enhance the overall system reliability.

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.W.; Weir, Linda A.; McClintock, Brett T.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Bailey, Larissa L.; Simons, Theodore R.

2012-01-01

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, that recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI: -46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%; -3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently, but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.

Anti-D immunoglobulin preparations: the stability of anti-D concentrations and the error of the assay of anti-D.

PubMed

Hughes-Jones, N C; Hunt, V A; Maycock, W D; Wesley, E D; Vallet, L

1978-01-01

An analysis of the assay of 28 preparations of anti-D immunoglobulin using a radioisotope method carried out at 6-montly intervals for 2--4.5 years showed an average fall in anti-D concentration of 10.6% each year, with 99% confidence limits of 6.8--14.7%. The fall in anti-D concentration after storage at 37 degrees C for 1 month was less than 8%, the minimum change that could be detected. No significant change in physical characteristics of the immunoglobulin were detected. The error of a single estimate of anti-D by the radioisotope method (125I-labelled anti-IgG) used here was calculated to be such that the true value probably (p = 0.95) lay between 66 and 150% of the estimated value.

Efficient automatic OCR word validation using word partial format derivation and language model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Siyuan; Misra, Dharitri; Thoma, George R.

2010-01-01

In this paper we present an OCR validation module, implemented for the System for Preservation of Electronic Resources (SPER) developed at the U.S. National Library of Medicine.1 The module detects and corrects suspicious words in the OCR output of scanned textual documents through a procedure of deriving partial formats for each suspicious word, retrieving candidate words by partial-match search from lexicons, and comparing the joint probabilities of N-gram and OCR edit transformation corresponding to the candidates. The partial format derivation, based on OCR error analysis, efficiently and accurately generates candidate words from lexicons represented by ternary search trees. In our test case comprising a historic medico-legal document collection, this OCR validation module yielded the correct words with 87% accuracy and reduced the overall OCR word errors by around 60%.

Stochastic analysis of the control of the movement of the spacecraft in the vicinity of the colinear libration point by means of the forces of luminous pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lukyanov, S. S.

1983-01-01

This paper is dedicated to the possible investigation of the utilization of the solar radiation pressure for the spacecraft motion control in the vicinity of collinear libration point of planar restricted ring problem of three bodies. The control is realized by changing the solar sail area at its permanent orientation. In this problem the influence of the trajectory errors and the errors of the execution control is accounted. It is worked out, the estimation method of the solar sail sizes, which are necessary for spacecraft keeping in the vicinity of collinear libration point during the certain time with given probability. The main control parameters were calculated for some examples in case of libration points of the Sun-Earth and Earth-Moon systems.

Measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution with source state errors and statistical fluctuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Yu, Zong-Wen; Wang, Xiang-Bin

2017-03-01

We show how to calculate the secure final key rate in the four-intensity decoy-state measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution protocol with both source errors and statistical fluctuations with a certain failure probability. Our results rely only on the range of only a few parameters in the source state. All imperfections in this protocol have been taken into consideration without assuming any specific error patterns of the source.

Drought Persistence in Models and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

2017-04-01

Many regions of the world have experienced drought events that persisted several years and caused substantial economic and ecological impacts in the 20th century. However, it remains unclear whether there are significant trends in the frequency or severity of these prolonged drought events. In particular, an important issue is linked to systematic biases in the representation of persistent drought events in climate models, which impedes analysis related to the detection and attribution of drought trends. This study assesses drought persistence errors in global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), in the period of 1901-2010. The model simulations are compared with five gridded observational data products. The analysis focuses on two aspects: the identification of systematic biases in the models and the partitioning of the spread of drought-persistence-error into four possible sources of uncertainty: model uncertainty, observation uncertainty, internal climate variability and the estimation error of drought persistence. We use monthly and yearly dry-to-dry transition probabilities as estimates for drought persistence with drought conditions defined as negative precipitation anomalies. For both time scales we find that most model simulations consistently underestimated drought persistence except in a few regions such as India and Eastern South America. Partitioning the spread of the drought-persistence-error shows that at the monthly time scale model uncertainty and observation uncertainty are dominant, while the contribution from internal variability does play a minor role in most cases. At the yearly scale, the spread of the drought-persistence-error is dominated by the estimation error, indicating that the partitioning is not statistically significant, due to a limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current climate models and highlight the main contributors of uncertainty of drought-persistence-error. Future analyses will focus on investigating the temporal propagation of drought persistence to better understand the causes for the identified errors in the representation of drought persistence in state-of-the-art climate models.

Peak-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Peak-flow annual exceedance probabilities, also called probability-percent chance flow estimates, and regional regression equations are provided describing the peak-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate peak-flow data. Analysis of Virginia peak-flow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating unregulated peak flow of gaged and ungaged streams. Station peak-flow characteristics identified by fitting the logarithms of annual peak flows to a Log Pearson Type III frequency distribution yield annual exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.4292, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 for 476 streamgaging stations. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression model equations for six physiographic regions to estimate regional annual exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted peak-flow values that combine annual exceedance probabilities computed from gaging station data and from regional regression equations provide improved peak-flow estimates. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing selected peak-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, peak-flow estimates, basin characteristics, regional regression model equations, error estimates, definitions, data sources, and candidate regression model equations. This study supersedes previous studies of peak flows in Virginia.

Asymmetries in Predictive and Diagnostic Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernbach, Philip M.; Darlow, Adam; Sloman, Steven A.

2011-01-01

In this article, we address the apparent discrepancy between causal Bayes net theories of cognition, which posit that judgments of uncertainty are generated from causal beliefs in a way that respects the norms of probability, and evidence that probability judgments based on causal beliefs are systematically in error. One purported source of bias…

Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

PubMed

Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-05

Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anytime synthetic projection: Maximizing the probability of goal satisfaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, Mark; Bresina, John L.

1990-01-01

A projection algorithm is presented for incremental control rule synthesis. The algorithm synthesizes an initial set of goal achieving control rules using a combination of situation probability and estimated remaining work as a search heuristic. This set of control rules has a certain probability of satisfying the given goal. The probability is incrementally increased by synthesizing additional control rules to handle 'error' situations the execution system is likely to encounter when following the initial control rules. By using situation probabilities, the algorithm achieves a computationally effective balance between the limited robustness of triangle tables and the absolute robustness of universal plans.

Bounds on Block Error Probability for Multilevel Concatenated Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Moorthy, Hari T.; Stojanovic, Diana

1996-01-01

Maximum likelihood decoding of long block codes is not feasable due to large complexity. Some classes of codes are shown to be decomposable into multilevel concatenated codes (MLCC). For these codes, multistage decoding provides good trade-off between performance and complexity. In this paper, we derive an upper bound on the probability of block error for MLCC. We use this bound to evaluate difference in performance for different decompositions of some codes. Examples given show that a significant reduction in complexity can be achieved when increasing number of stages of decoding. Resulting performance degradation varies for different decompositions. A guideline is given for finding good m-level decompositions.

Performance of DPSK with convolutional encoding on time-varying fading channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mui, S. Y.; Modestino, J. W.

1977-01-01

The bit error probability performance of a differentially-coherent phase-shift keyed (DPSK) modem with convolutional encoding and Viterbi decoding on time-varying fading channels is examined. Both the Rician and the lognormal channels are considered. Bit error probability upper bounds on fully-interleaved (zero-memory) fading channels are derived and substantiated by computer simulation. It is shown that the resulting coded system performance is a relatively insensitive function of the choice of channel model provided that the channel parameters are related according to the correspondence developed as part of this paper. Finally, a comparison of DPSK with a number of other modulation strategies is provided.

Modeling workplace contact networks: The effects of organizational structure, architecture, and reporting errors on epidemic predictions.

PubMed

Potter, Gail E; Smieszek, Timo; Sailer, Kerstin

2015-09-01

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are important settings for infectious disease transmission, few studies have collected workplace contact data and estimated workplace contact networks. We use contact diaries, architectural distance measures, and institutional structures to estimate social contact networks within a Swiss research institute. Some contact reports were inconsistent, indicating reporting errors. We adjust for this with a latent variable model, jointly estimating the true (unobserved) network of contacts and duration-specific reporting probabilities. We find that contact probability decreases with distance, and that research group membership, role, and shared projects are strongly predictive of contact patterns. Estimated reporting probabilities were low only for 0-5 min contacts. Adjusting for reporting error changed the estimate of the duration distribution, but did not change the estimates of covariate effects and had little effect on epidemic predictions. Our epidemic simulation study indicates that inclusion of network structure based on architectural and organizational structure data can improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting models.

Modeling workplace contact networks: The effects of organizational structure, architecture, and reporting errors on epidemic predictions

PubMed Central

Potter, Gail E.; Smieszek, Timo; Sailer, Kerstin

2015-01-01

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are important settings for infectious disease transmission, few studies have collected workplace contact data and estimated workplace contact networks. We use contact diaries, architectural distance measures, and institutional structures to estimate social contact networks within a Swiss research institute. Some contact reports were inconsistent, indicating reporting errors. We adjust for this with a latent variable model, jointly estimating the true (unobserved) network of contacts and duration-specific reporting probabilities. We find that contact probability decreases with distance, and that research group membership, role, and shared projects are strongly predictive of contact patterns. Estimated reporting probabilities were low only for 0–5 min contacts. Adjusting for reporting error changed the estimate of the duration distribution, but did not change the estimates of covariate effects and had little effect on epidemic predictions. Our epidemic simulation study indicates that inclusion of network structure based on architectural and organizational structure data can improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting models. PMID:26634122

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time-Series and Intervention Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei

2017-07-01

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time-series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time-series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two-month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time-series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Asymmetric soft-error resistant memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehler, Martin G. (Inventor); Perlman, Marvin (Inventor)

1991-01-01

A memory system is provided, of the type that includes an error-correcting circuit that detects and corrects, that more efficiently utilizes the capacity of a memory formed of groups of binary cells whose states can be inadvertently switched by ionizing radiation. Each memory cell has an asymmetric geometry, so that ionizing radiation causes a significantly greater probability of errors in one state than in the opposite state (e.g., an erroneous switch from '1' to '0' is far more likely than a switch from '0' to'1'. An asymmetric error correcting coding circuit can be used with the asymmetric memory cells, which requires fewer bits than an efficient symmetric error correcting code.

Discrimination of binary coherent states using a homodyne detector and a photon number resolving detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wittmann, Christoffer; Sych, Denis; Leuchs, Gerd

2010-06-15

We investigate quantum measurement strategies capable of discriminating two coherent states probabilistically with significantly smaller error probabilities than can be obtained using nonprobabilistic state discrimination. We apply a postselection strategy to the measurement data of a homodyne detector as well as a photon number resolving detector in order to lower the error probability. We compare the two different receivers with an optimal intermediate measurement scheme where the error rate is minimized for a fixed rate of inconclusive results. The photon number resolving (PNR) receiver is experimentally demonstrated and compared to an experimental realization of a homodyne receiver with postselection. Inmore » the comparison, it becomes clear that the performance of the PNR receiver surpasses the performance of the homodyne receiver, which we prove to be optimal within any Gaussian operations and conditional dynamics.« less

Peelle's pertinent puzzle using the Monte Carlo technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kawano, Toshihiko; Talou, Patrick; Burr, Thomas

2009-01-01

We try to understand the long-standing problem of the Peelle's Pertinent Puzzle (PPP) using the Monte Carlo technique. We allow the probability density functions to be any kind of form to assume the impact of distribution, and obtain the least-squares solution directly from numerical simulations. We found that the standard least squares method gives the correct answer if a weighting function is properly provided. Results from numerical simulations show that the correct answer of PPP is 1.1 {+-} 0.25 if the common error is multiplicative. The thought-provoking answer of 0.88 is also correct, if the common error is additive, andmore » if the error is proportional to the measured values. The least squares method correctly gives us the most probable case, where the additive component has a negative value. Finally, the standard method fails for PPP due to a distorted (non Gaussian) joint distribution.« less

Driver landmark and traffic sign identification in early Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Uc, E Y; Rizzo, M; Anderson, S W; Shi, Q; Dawson, J D

2005-06-01

To assess visual search and recognition of roadside targets and safety errors during a landmark and traffic sign identification task in drivers with Alzheimer's disease. 33 drivers with probable Alzheimer's disease of mild severity and 137 neurologically normal older adults underwent a battery of visual and cognitive tests and were asked to report detection of specific landmarks and traffic signs along a segment of an experimental drive. The drivers with mild Alzheimer's disease identified significantly fewer landmarks and traffic signs and made more at-fault safety errors during the task than control subjects. Roadside target identification performance and safety errors were predicted by scores on standardised tests of visual and cognitive function. Drivers with Alzheimer's disease are impaired in a task of visual search and recognition of roadside targets; the demands of these targets on visual perception, attention, executive functions, and memory probably increase the cognitive load, worsening driving safety.

Spatial Variation of Soil Lead in an Urban Community Garden: Implications for Risk-Based Sampling.

PubMed

Bugdalski, Lauren; Lemke, Lawrence D; McElmurry, Shawn P

2014-01-01

Soil lead pollution is a recalcitrant problem in urban areas resulting from a combination of historical residential, industrial, and transportation practices. The emergence of urban gardening movements in postindustrial cities necessitates accurate assessment of soil lead levels to ensure safe gardening. In this study, we examined small-scale spatial variability of soil lead within a 15 × 30 m urban garden plot established on two adjacent residential lots located in Detroit, Michigan, USA. Eighty samples collected using a variably spaced sampling grid were analyzed for total, fine fraction (less than 250 μm), and bioaccessible soil lead. Measured concentrations varied at sampling scales of 1-10 m and a hot spot exceeding 400 ppm total soil lead was identified in the northwest portion of the site. An interpolated map of total lead was treated as an exhaustive data set, and random sampling was simulated to generate Monte Carlo distributions and evaluate alternative sampling strategies intended to estimate the average soil lead concentration or detect hot spots. Increasing the number of individual samples decreases the probability of overlooking the hot spot (type II error). However, the practice of compositing and averaging samples decreased the probability of overestimating the mean concentration (type I error) at the expense of increasing the chance for type II error. The results reported here suggest a need to reconsider U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sampling objectives and consequent guidelines for reclaimed city lots where soil lead distributions are expected to be nonuniform. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix B - system descriptions and fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix B provides a description of Browns Ferry, Unit 1, plant systems and the failure evaluation of those systems as they apply to accidents at Browns Ferry. Information is presented concerning front-line system fault analysis; support system fault analysis; human error models andmore » probabilities; and generic control circuit analyses.« less

Cumulative uncertainty in measured streamflow and water quality data for small watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmel, R.D.; Cooper, R.J.; Slade, R.M.; Haney, R.L.; Arnold, J.G.

2006-01-01

The scientific community has not established an adequate understanding of the uncertainty inherent in measured water quality data, which is introduced by four procedural categories: streamflow measurement, sample collection, sample preservation/storage, and laboratory analysis. Although previous research has produced valuable information on relative differences in procedures within these categories, little information is available that compares the procedural categories or presents the cumulative uncertainty in resulting water quality data. As a result, quality control emphasis is often misdirected, and data uncertainty is typically either ignored or accounted for with an arbitrary margin of safety. Faced with the need for scientifically defensible estimates of data uncertainty to support water resource management, the objectives of this research were to: (1) compile selected published information on uncertainty related to measured streamflow and water quality data for small watersheds, (2) use a root mean square error propagation method to compare the uncertainty introduced by each procedural category, and (3) use the error propagation method to determine the cumulative probable uncertainty in measured streamflow, sediment, and nutrient data. Best case, typical, and worst case "data quality" scenarios were examined. Averaged across all constituents, the calculated cumulative probable uncertainty (??%) contributed under typical scenarios ranged from 6% to 19% for streamflow measurement, from 4% to 48% for sample collection, from 2% to 16% for sample preservation/storage, and from 5% to 21% for laboratory analysis. Under typical conditions, errors in storm loads ranged from 8% to 104% for dissolved nutrients, from 8% to 110% for total N and P, and from 7% to 53% for TSS. Results indicated that uncertainty can increase substantially under poor measurement conditions and limited quality control effort. This research provides introductory scientific estimates of uncertainty in measured water quality data. The results and procedures presented should also assist modelers in quantifying the "quality"of calibration and evaluation data sets, determining model accuracy goals, and evaluating model performance.

The Heuristic Value of p in Inductive Statistical Inference

PubMed Central

Krueger, Joachim I.; Heck, Patrick R.

2017-01-01

Many statistical methods yield the probability of the observed data – or data more extreme – under the assumption that a particular hypothesis is true. This probability is commonly known as ‘the’ p-value. (Null Hypothesis) Significance Testing ([NH]ST) is the most prominent of these methods. The p-value has been subjected to much speculation, analysis, and criticism. We explore how well the p-value predicts what researchers presumably seek: the probability of the hypothesis being true given the evidence, and the probability of reproducing significant results. We also explore the effect of sample size on inferential accuracy, bias, and error. In a series of simulation experiments, we find that the p-value performs quite well as a heuristic cue in inductive inference, although there are identifiable limits to its usefulness. We conclude that despite its general usefulness, the p-value cannot bear the full burden of inductive inference; it is but one of several heuristic cues available to the data analyst. Depending on the inferential challenge at hand, investigators may supplement their reports with effect size estimates, Bayes factors, or other suitable statistics, to communicate what they think the data say. PMID:28649206

The Heuristic Value of p in Inductive Statistical Inference.

PubMed

Krueger, Joachim I; Heck, Patrick R

2017-01-01

Many statistical methods yield the probability of the observed data - or data more extreme - under the assumption that a particular hypothesis is true. This probability is commonly known as 'the' p -value. (Null Hypothesis) Significance Testing ([NH]ST) is the most prominent of these methods. The p -value has been subjected to much speculation, analysis, and criticism. We explore how well the p -value predicts what researchers presumably seek: the probability of the hypothesis being true given the evidence, and the probability of reproducing significant results. We also explore the effect of sample size on inferential accuracy, bias, and error. In a series of simulation experiments, we find that the p -value performs quite well as a heuristic cue in inductive inference, although there are identifiable limits to its usefulness. We conclude that despite its general usefulness, the p -value cannot bear the full burden of inductive inference; it is but one of several heuristic cues available to the data analyst. Depending on the inferential challenge at hand, investigators may supplement their reports with effect size estimates, Bayes factors, or other suitable statistics, to communicate what they think the data say.

Cluster membership probability: polarimetric approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medhi, Biman J.; Tamura, Motohide

2013-04-01

Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q (per cent) and u (per cent) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the interstellar and intracluster differential reddening in the open cluster. It is found that this method could be used to estimate the cluster membership probability if we have additional polarimetric and photometric information for a star to identify it as a probable member/non-member of a particular cluster, such as the maximum wavelength value (λmax), the unit weight error of the fit (σ1), the dispersion in the polarimetric position angles (overline{ɛ }), reddening (E(B - V)) or the differential intracluster reddening (ΔE(B - V)). This method could also be used to estimate the membership probability of known member stars having no membership probability as well as to resolve disagreements about membership among different proper-motion surveys.

Stochastic Formal Correctness of Numerical Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daumas, Marc; Lester, David; Martin-Dorel, Erik; Truffert, Annick

2009-01-01

We provide a framework to bound the probability that accumulated errors were never above a given threshold on numerical algorithms. Such algorithms are used for example in aircraft and nuclear power plants. This report contains simple formulas based on Levy's and Markov's inequalities and it presents a formal theory of random variables with a special focus on producing concrete results. We selected four very common applications that fit in our framework and cover the common practices of systems that evolve for a long time. We compute the number of bits that remain continuously significant in the first two applications with a probability of failure around one out of a billion, where worst case analysis considers that no significant bit remains. We are using PVS as such formal tools force explicit statement of all hypotheses and prevent incorrect uses of theorems.

29 CFR 18.103 - Rulings on evidence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... is more probably true than not true that the error did not materially contribute to the decision or... if explicitly not relied upon by the judge in support of the decision or order. (b) Record of offer... making of an offer in question and answer form. (c) Plain error. Nothing in this rule precludes taking...

Rewriting Evolution—“Been There, Done That”

PubMed Central

Penny, David

2013-01-01

A recent paper by a science journalist in Nature shows major errors in understanding phylogenies, in this case of placental mammals. The underlying unrooted tree is probably correct, but the placement of the root just reflects a well-known error from the acceleration in the rate of evolution among some myomorph rodents. PMID:23558594

Dosimetric effects of patient rotational setup errors on prostate IMRT treatments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Weihua; Yang, Yong; Li, Xiang; Heron, Dwight E.; Saiful Huq, M.; Yue, Ning J.

2006-10-01

The purpose of this work is to determine dose delivery errors that could result from systematic rotational setup errors (ΔΦ) for prostate cancer patients treated with three-phase sequential boost IMRT. In order to implement this, different rotational setup errors around three Cartesian axes were simulated for five prostate patients and dosimetric indices, such as dose-volume histogram (DVH), tumour control probability (TCP), normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and equivalent uniform dose (EUD), were employed to evaluate the corresponding dosimetric influences. Rotational setup errors were simulated by adjusting the gantry, collimator and horizontal couch angles of treatment beams and the dosimetric effects were evaluated by recomputing the dose distributions in the treatment planning system. Our results indicated that, for prostate cancer treatment with the three-phase sequential boost IMRT technique, the rotational setup errors do not have significant dosimetric impacts on the cumulative plan. Even in the worst-case scenario with ΔΦ = 3°, the prostate EUD varied within 1.5% and TCP decreased about 1%. For seminal vesicle, slightly larger influences were observed. However, EUD and TCP changes were still within 2%. The influence on sensitive structures, such as rectum and bladder, is also negligible. This study demonstrates that the rotational setup error degrades the dosimetric coverage of target volume in prostate cancer treatment to a certain degree. However, the degradation was not significant for the three-phase sequential boost prostate IMRT technique and for the margin sizes used in our institution.

An MEG signature corresponding to an axiomatic model of reward prediction error.

PubMed

Talmi, Deborah; Fuentemilla, Lluis; Litvak, Vladimir; Duzel, Emrah; Dolan, Raymond J

2012-01-02

Optimal decision-making is guided by evaluating the outcomes of previous decisions. Prediction errors are theoretical teaching signals which integrate two features of an outcome: its inherent value and prior expectation of its occurrence. To uncover the magnetic signature of prediction errors in the human brain we acquired magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data while participants performed a gambling task. Our primary objective was to use formal criteria, based upon an axiomatic model (Caplin and Dean, 2008a), to determine the presence and timing profile of MEG signals that express prediction errors. We report analyses at the sensor level, implemented in SPM8, time locked to outcome onset. We identified, for the first time, a MEG signature of prediction error, which emerged approximately 320 ms after an outcome and expressed as an interaction between outcome valence and probability. This signal followed earlier, separate signals for outcome valence and probability, which emerged approximately 200 ms after an outcome. Strikingly, the time course of the prediction error signal, as well as the early valence signal, resembled the Feedback-Related Negativity (FRN). In simultaneously acquired EEG data we obtained a robust FRN, but the win and loss signals that comprised this difference wave did not comply with the axiomatic model. Our findings motivate an explicit examination of the critical issue of timing embodied in computational models of prediction errors as seen in human electrophysiological data. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing boundary conditions for the conjunction fallacy: effects of response mode, conceptual focus, and problem type.

PubMed

Wedell, Douglas H; Moro, Rodrigo

2008-04-01

Two experiments used within-subject designs to examine how conjunction errors depend on the use of (1) choice versus estimation tasks, (2) probability versus frequency language, and (3) conjunctions of two likely events versus conjunctions of likely and unlikely events. All problems included a three-option format verified to minimize misinterpretation of the base event. In both experiments, conjunction errors were reduced when likely events were conjoined. Conjunction errors were also reduced for estimations compared with choices, with this reduction greater for likely conjuncts, an interaction effect. Shifting conceptual focus from probabilities to frequencies did not affect conjunction error rates. Analyses of numerical estimates for a subset of the problems provided support for the use of three general models by participants for generating estimates. Strikingly, the order in which the two tasks were carried out did not affect the pattern of results, supporting the idea that the mode of responding strongly determines the mode of thinking about conjunctions and hence the occurrence of the conjunction fallacy. These findings were evaluated in terms of implications for rationality of human judgment and reasoning.

Analysis and design of a second-order digital phase-locked loop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blasche, P. R.

1979-01-01

A specific second-order digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) was modeled as a first-order Markov chain with alternatives. From the matrix of transition probabilities of the Markov chain, the steady-state phase error of the DPLL was determined. In a similar manner the loop's response was calculated for a fading input. Additionally, a hardware DPLL was constructed and tested to provide a comparison to the results obtained from the Markov chain model. In all cases tested, good agreement was found between the theoretical predictions and the experimental data.

[Gas chromatographic isolation of chloropicrin in drinking water].

PubMed

Malysheva, A G; Sotnikov, E E; Moskovkin, A S; Kamenetskaia, D B

2004-01-01

Gas chromatographic method has been developed to identify chloropicrin in the drinking water, which is based on its separation from water by statistic gas extraction and on the analysis of equilibrium vapor phase on a capillary column with electron-capture and nitrogen-phosphorus detectors connected in series. The method allows chloropicrin to be detected at the level of 5 mg/dm3 with a total measurement error of +/- 10% at a confidence probability of 0.95. The paper shows that the sensitivity of identification can be significantly increased.

Adaptive Optics Communications Performance Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srinivasan, M.; Vilnrotter, V.; Troy, M.; Wilson, K.

2004-01-01

The performance improvement obtained through the use of adaptive optics for deep-space communications in the presence of atmospheric turbulence is analyzed. Using simulated focal-plane signal-intensity distributions, uncoded pulse-position modulation (PPM) bit-error probabilities are calculated assuming the use of an adaptive focal-plane detector array as well as an adaptively sized single detector. It is demonstrated that current practical adaptive optics systems can yield performance gains over an uncompensated system ranging from approximately 1 dB to 6 dB depending upon the PPM order and background radiation level.

Bayesian operational modal analysis with asynchronous data, Part II: Posterior uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yi-Chen; Au, Siu-Kui

2018-01-01

A Bayesian modal identification method has been proposed in the companion paper that allows the most probable values of modal parameters to be determined using asynchronous ambient vibration data. This paper investigates the identification uncertainty of modal parameters in terms of their posterior covariance matrix. Computational issues are addressed. Analytical expressions are derived to allow the posterior covariance matrix to be evaluated accurately and efficiently. Synthetic, laboratory and field data examples are presented to verify the consistency, investigate potential modelling error and demonstrate practical applications.

A Probabilistic, Facility-Centric Approach to Lightning Strike Location

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William p.; Merceret, Francis J.

2012-01-01

A new probabilistic facility-centric approach to lightning strike location has been developed. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collisionith spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Maximum likelihood estimation of label imperfections and its use in the identification of mislabeled patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

The problem of estimating label imperfections and the use of the estimation in identifying mislabeled patterns is presented. Expressions for the maximum likelihood estimates of classification errors and a priori probabilities are derived from the classification of a set of labeled patterns. Expressions also are given for the asymptotic variances of probability of correct classification and proportions. Simple models are developed for imperfections in the labels and for classification errors and are used in the formulation of a maximum likelihood estimation scheme. Schemes are presented for the identification of mislabeled patterns in terms of threshold on the discriminant functions for both two-class and multiclass cases. Expressions are derived for the probability that the imperfect label identification scheme will result in a wrong decision and are used in computing thresholds. The results of practical applications of these techniques in the processing of remotely sensed multispectral data are presented.

Dynamic Target Definition: a novel approach for PTV definition in ion beam therapy.

PubMed

Cabal, Gonzalo A; Jäkel, Oliver

2013-05-01

To present a beam arrangement specific approach for PTV definition in ion beam therapy. By means of a Monte Carlo error propagation analysis a criteria is formulated to assess whether a voxel is safely treated. Based on this a non-isotropical expansion rule is proposed aiming to minimize the impact of uncertainties on the dose delivered. The method is exemplified in two cases: a Head and Neck case and a Prostate case. In both cases the modality used is proton beam irradiation and the sources of uncertainties taken into account are positioning (set up) errors and range uncertainties. It is shown how different beam arrangements have an impact on plan robustness which leads to different target expansions necessary to assure a predefined level of plan robustness. The relevance of appropriate beam angle arrangements as a way to minimize uncertainties is demonstrated. A novel method for PTV definition in on beam therapy is presented. The method show promising results by improving the probability of correct dose CTV coverage while reducing the size of the PTV volume. In a clinical scenario this translates into an enhanced tumor control probability while reducing the volume of healthy tissue being irradiated. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A potential risk of overestimating apparent diffusion coefficient in parotid glands.

PubMed

Liu, Yi-Jui; Lee, Yi-Hsiung; Chang, Hing-Chiu; Huang, Teng-Yi; Chiu, Hui-Chu; Wang, Chih-Wei; Chiou, Ta-Wei; Hsu, Kang; Juan, Chun-Jung; Huang, Guo-Shu; Hsu, Hsian-He

2015-01-01

To investigate transient signal loss on diffusion weighted images (DWI) and overestimation of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) in parotid glands using single shot echoplanar DWI (EPDWI). This study enrolled 6 healthy subjects and 7 patients receiving radiotherapy. All participants received dynamic EPDWI with a total of 8 repetitions. Imaging quality of DWI was evaluated. Probability of severe overestimation of ADC (soADC), defined by an ADC ratio more than 1.2, was calculated. Error on T2WI, DWI, and ADC was computed. Statistical analysis included paired Student t testing and Mann-Whitney U test. A P value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Transient signal loss was visually detected on some excitations of DWI but not on T2WI or mean DWI. soADC occurred randomly among 8 excitations and 3 directions of diffusion encoding gradients. Probability of soADC was significantly higher in radiotherapy group (42.86%) than in healthy group (24.39%). The mean error percentage decreased as the number of excitations increased on all images, and, it was smallest on T2WI, followed by DWI and ADC in an increasing order. Transient signal loss on DWI was successfully detected by dynamic EPDWI. The signal loss on DWI and overestimation of ADC could be partially remedied by increasing the number of excitations.

The Dolinar Receiver in an Information Theoretic Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erkmen, Baris I.; Birnbaum, Kevin M.; Moision, Bruce E.; Dolinar, Samuel J.

2011-01-01

Optical communication at the quantum limit requires that measurements on the optical field be maximally informative, but devising physical measurements that accomplish this objective has proven challenging. The Dolinar receiver exemplifies a rare instance of success in distinguishing between two coherent states: an adaptive local oscillator is mixed with the signal prior to photodetection, which yields an error probability that meets the Helstrom lower bound with equality. Here we apply the same local-oscillator-based architecture with aninformation-theoretic optimization criterion. We begin with analysis of this receiver in a general framework for an arbitrary coherent-state modulation alphabet, and then we concentrate on two relevant examples. First, we study a binary antipodal alphabet and show that the Dolinar receiver's feedback function not only minimizes the probability of error, but also maximizes the mutual information. Next, we study ternary modulation consistingof antipodal coherent states and the vacuum state. We derive an analytic expression for a near-optimal local oscillator feedback function, and, via simulation, we determine its photon information efficiency (PIE). We provide the PIE versus dimensional information efficiency (DIE) trade-off curve and show that this modulation and the our receiver combination performs universally better than (generalized) on-off keying plus photoncounting, although, the advantage asymptotically vanishes as the bits-per-photon diverges towards infinity.

Variability Analysis based on POSS1/POSS2 Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mickaelian, Areg M.; Sarkissian, Alain; Sinamyan, Parandzem K.

2012-04-01

We introduce accurate magnitudes as combined calculations from catalogues based on accurate measurements of POSS1- and POSS2-epoch plates. The photometric accuracy of various catalogues was established, and statistical weights for each of them have been calculated. To achieve the best possible magnitudes, we used weighted averaging of data from APM, MAPS, USNO-A2.0, USNO-B1.0 (for POSS1-epoch), and USNO-B1.0 and GSC 2.3.2 (for POSS2-epoch) catalogues. The r.m.s. accuracy of magnitudes achieved for POSS1 is 0.184 in B and 0.173 mag in R, or 0.138 in B and 0.128 in R for POSS2. By adopting those new magnitudes we examined the First Byurakan Survey (FBS) of blue stellar objects for variability, and uncovered 336 probable and possible variables among 1103 objects with POSS2-POSS1 >= 3σ of the errors, including 161 highly probable variables. We have developed methods to control and exclude accidental errors for any survey. We compared and combined our results with those given in Northern Sky Variability Survey (NSVS) database, and obtained firm candidates for variability. By such an approach it will be possible to conduct investigations of variability for large numbers of objects.

Resampling-Based Empirical Bayes Multiple Testing Procedures for Controlling Generalized Tail Probability and Expected Value Error Rates: Focus on the False Discovery Rate and Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Dudoit, Sandrine; Gilbert, Houston N.; van der Laan, Mark J.

2014-01-01

Summary This article proposes resampling-based empirical Bayes multiple testing procedures for controlling a broad class of Type I error rates, defined as generalized tail probability (gTP) error rates, gTP(q, g) = Pr(g(Vn, Sn) > q), and generalized expected value (gEV) error rates, gEV(g) = E[g(Vn, Sn)], for arbitrary functions g(Vn, Sn) of the numbers of false positives Vn and true positives Sn. Of particular interest are error rates based on the proportion g(Vn, Sn) = Vn/(Vn + Sn) of Type I errors among the rejected hypotheses, such as the false discovery rate (FDR), FDR = E[Vn/(Vn + Sn)]. The proposed procedures offer several advantages over existing methods. They provide Type I error control for general data generating distributions, with arbitrary dependence structures among variables. Gains in power are achieved by deriving rejection regions based on guessed sets of true null hypotheses and null test statistics randomly sampled from joint distributions that account for the dependence structure of the data. The Type I error and power properties of an FDR-controlling version of the resampling-based empirical Bayes approach are investigated and compared to those of widely-used FDR-controlling linear step-up procedures in a simulation study. The Type I error and power trade-off achieved by the empirical Bayes procedures under a variety of testing scenarios allows this approach to be competitive with or outperform the Storey and Tibshirani (2003) linear step-up procedure, as an alternative to the classical Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) procedure. PMID:18932138

Science, practice, and human errors in controlling Clostridium botulinum in heat-preserved food in hermetic containers.

PubMed

Pflug, Irving J

2010-05-01

The incidence of botulism in canned food in the last century is reviewed along with the background science; a few conclusions are reached based on analysis of published data. There are two primary aspects to botulism control: the design of an adequate process and the delivery of the adequate process to containers of food. The probability that the designed process will not be adequate to control Clostridium botulinum is very small, probably less than 1.0 x 10(-6), based on containers of food, whereas the failure of the operator of the processing equipment to deliver the specified process to containers of food may be of the order of 1 in 40, to 1 in 100, based on processing units (retort loads). In the commercial food canning industry, failure to deliver the process will probably be of the order of 1.0 x 10(-4) to 1.0 x 10(-6) when U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulations are followed. Botulism incidents have occurred in food canning plants that have not followed the FDA regulations. It is possible but very rare to have botulism result from postprocessing contamination. It may thus be concluded that botulism incidents in canned food are primarily the result of human failure in the delivery of the designed or specified process to containers of food that, in turn, result in the survival, outgrowth, and toxin production of C. botulinum spores. Therefore, efforts in C. botulinum control should be concentrated on reducing human errors in the delivery of the specified process to containers of food.

Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Peppler, Marie C.; Danz, Mari E.; Hubbard, Laura E.

2017-05-22

Flood-frequency characteristics for 360 gaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Wisconsin are presented for percent annual exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 50 using a statewide skewness map developed for this report. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of the equations presented in this report. The State was divided into eight areas of similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, main-channel slope, and several land-use variables. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood ranges from 56 to 70 percent for Wisconsin Streams; these values are larger than results presented in previous reports. The increase in the standard error of prediction is likely due to increased variability of the annual-peak discharges, resulting in increased variability in the magnitude of flood peaks at higher frequencies. For each of the unregulated rural streamflow-gaging stations, a weighted estimate based on the at-site log Pearson type III analysis and the multiple regression results was determined. The weighted estimate generally has a lower uncertainty than either the Log Pearson type III or multiple regression estimates. For regulated streams, a graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics was developed from the relations of discharge and drainage area for selected annual exceedance probabilities. Graphs for the major regulated streams in Wisconsin are presented in the report.

Assessment and quantification of patient set-up errors in nasopharyngeal cancer patients and their biological and dosimetric impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD), tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP)

PubMed Central

Marcie, S; Fellah, M; Chami, S; Mekki, F

2015-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study is to assess and quantify patients' set-up errors using an electronic portal imaging device and to evaluate their dosimetric and biological impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) on predictive models, such as the tumour control probability (TCP) and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Methods: 20 patients treated for nasopharyngeal cancer were enrolled in the radiotherapy–oncology department of HCA. Systematic and random errors were quantified. The dosimetric and biological impact of these set-up errors on the target volume and the organ at risk (OARs) coverage were assessed using calculation of dose–volume histogram, gEUD, TCP and NTCP. For this purpose, an in-house software was developed and used. Results: The standard deviations (1SDs) of the systematic set-up and random set-up errors were calculated for the lateral and subclavicular fields and gave the following results: ∑ = 0.63 ± (0.42) mm and σ = 3.75 ± (0.79) mm, respectively. Thus a planning organ at risk volume (PRV) margin of 3 mm was defined around the OARs, and a 5-mm margin used around the clinical target volume. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP calculations obtained with and without set-up errors have shown increased values for tumour, where ΔgEUD (tumour) = 1.94% Gy (p = 0.00721) and ΔTCP = 2.03%. The toxicity of OARs was quantified using gEUD and NTCP. The values of ΔgEUD (OARs) vary from 0.78% to 5.95% in the case of the brainstem and the optic chiasm, respectively. The corresponding ΔNTCP varies from 0.15% to 0.53%, respectively. Conclusion: The quantification of set-up errors has a dosimetric and biological impact on the tumour and on the OARs. The developed in-house software using the concept of gEUD, TCP and NTCP biological models has been successfully used in this study. It can be used also to optimize the treatment plan established for our patients. Advances in knowledge: The gEUD, TCP and NTCP may be more suitable tools to assess the treatment plans before treating the patients. PMID:25882689

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows at ungaged sites in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, S. Jerrod; Lewis, Jason M.; Graves, Grant M.

2015-09-28

Generalized-least-squares multiple-linear regression analysis was used to formulate regression relations between peak-streamflow frequency statistics and basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area was the only basin characteristic determined to be statistically significant for all percentage of annual exceedance probabilities and was the only basin characteristic used in regional regression equations for estimating peak-streamflow frequency statistics on unregulated streams in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle. The regression model pseudo-coefficient of determination, converted to percent, for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations ranged from about 38 to 63 percent. The standard errors of prediction and the standard model errors for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations ranged from about 84 to 148 percent and from about 76 to 138 percent, respectively. These errors were comparable to those reported for regional peak-streamflow frequency regression equations for the High Plains areas of Texas and Colorado. The root mean square errors for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations (ranging from 3,170 to 92,000 cubic feet per second) were less than the root mean square errors for the Oklahoma statewide regression equations (ranging from 18,900 to 412,000 cubic feet per second); therefore, the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations produce more accurate peak-streamflow statistic estimates for the irrigated period of record in the Oklahoma Panhandle than do the Oklahoma statewide regression equations. The regression equations developed in this report are applicable to streams that are not substantially affected by regulation, impoundment, or surface-water withdrawals. These regression equations are intended for use for stream sites with contributing drainage areas less than or equal to about 2,060 square miles, the maximum value for the independent variable used in the regression analysis.

Are quantitative trait-dependent sampling designs cost-effective for analysis of rare and common variants?

PubMed

Yilmaz, Yildiz E; Bull, Shelley B

2011-11-29

Use of trait-dependent sampling designs in whole-genome association studies of sequence data can reduce total sequencing costs with modest losses of statistical efficiency. In a quantitative trait (QT) analysis of data from the Genetic Analysis Workshop 17 mini-exome for unrelated individuals in the Asian subpopulation, we investigate alternative designs that sequence only 50% of the entire cohort. In addition to a simple random sampling design, we consider extreme-phenotype designs that are of increasing interest in genetic association analysis of QTs, especially in studies concerned with the detection of rare genetic variants. We also evaluate a novel sampling design in which all individuals have a nonzero probability of being selected into the sample but in which individuals with extreme phenotypes have a proportionately larger probability. We take differential sampling of individuals with informative trait values into account by inverse probability weighting using standard survey methods which thus generalizes to the source population. In replicate 1 data, we applied the designs in association analysis of Q1 with both rare and common variants in the FLT1 gene, based on knowledge of the generating model. Using all 200 replicate data sets, we similarly analyzed Q1 and Q4 (which is known to be free of association with FLT1) to evaluate relative efficiency, type I error, and power. Simulation study results suggest that the QT-dependent selection designs generally yield greater than 50% relative efficiency compared to using the entire cohort, implying cost-effectiveness of 50% sample selection and worthwhile reduction of sequencing costs.

An Upper Bound on Orbital Debris Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2015-01-01

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, P (sub c), have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum P (sub c). If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but useful P (sub c) upper bound. There are various avenues along which an upper bound on the high speed satellite collision probability has been pursued. Typically, for the collision plane representation of the high speed collision probability problem, the predicted miss position in the collision plane is assumed fixed. Then the shape (aspect ratio of ellipse), the size (scaling of standard deviations) or the orientation (rotation of ellipse principal axes) of the combined position error ellipse is varied to obtain a maximum P (sub c). Regardless as to the exact details of the approach, previously presented methods all assume that an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object and the two are combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. This combined position error covariance matrix is then modified according to the chosen scheme to arrive at a maximum P (sub c). But what if error covariance information for one of the two objects is not available? When error covariance information for one of the objects is not available the analyst has commonly defaulted to the situation in which only the relative miss position and velocity are known without any corresponding state error covariance information. The various usual methods of finding a maximum P (sub c) do no good because the analyst defaults to no knowledge of the combined, relative position error covariance matrix. It is reasonable to think, given an assumption of no covariance information, an analyst might still attempt to determine the error covariance matrix that results in an upper bound on the P (sub c). Without some guidance on limits to the shape, size and orientation of the unknown covariance matrix, the limiting case is a degenerate ellipse lying along the relative miss vector in the collision plane. Unless the miss position is exceptionally large or the at-risk object is exceptionally small, this method results in a maximum P (sub c) too large to be of practical use. For example, assuming that the miss distance is equal to the current ISS alert volume along-track (+ or -) distance of 25 kilometers and that the at-risk area has a 70 meter radius. The maximum (degenerate ellipse) P (sub c) is about 0.00136. At 40 kilometers, the maximum P (sub c) would be 0.00085 which is still almost an order of magnitude larger than the ISS maneuver threshold of 0.0001. In fact, a miss distance of almost 340 kilometers is necessary to reduce the maximum P (sub c) associated with this degenerate ellipse to the ISS maneuver threshold value. Such a result is frequently of no practical value to the analyst. Some improvement may be made with respect to this problem by realizing that while the position error covariance matrix of one of the objects (usually the debris object) may not be known the position error covariance matrix of the other object (usually the asset) is almost always available. Making use of the position error covariance information for the one object provides an improvement in finding a maximum P (sub c) which, in some cases, may offer real utility. The equations to be used are presented and their use discussed.

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mashiku, Alinda; Garrison, James L.; Carpenter, J. Russell

2012-01-01

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency.

Automated Comparative Auditing of NCIT Genomic Roles Using NCBI

PubMed Central

Cohen, Barry; Oren, Marc; Min, Hua; Perl, Yehoshua; Halper, Michael

2008-01-01

Biomedical research has identified many human genes and various knowledge about them. The National Cancer Institute Thesaurus (NCIT) represents such knowledge as concepts and roles (relationships). Due to the rapid advances in this field, it is to be expected that the NCIT’s Gene hierarchy will contain role errors. A comparative methodology to audit the Gene hierarchy with the use of the National Center for Biotechnology Information’s (NCBI’s) Entrez Gene database is presented. The two knowledge sources are accessed via a pair of Web crawlers to ensure up-to-date data. Our algorithms then compare the knowledge gathered from each, identify discrepancies that represent probable errors, and suggest corrective actions. The primary focus is on two kinds of gene-roles: (1) the chromosomal locations of genes, and (2) the biological processes in which genes plays a role. Regarding chromosomal locations, the discrepancies revealed are striking and systematic, suggesting a structurally common origin. In regard to the biological processes, difficulties arise because genes frequently play roles in multiple processes, and processes may have many designations (such as synonymous terms). Our algorithms make use of the roles defined in the NCIT Biological Process hierarchy to uncover many probable gene-role errors in the NCIT. These results show that automated comparative auditing is a promising technique that can identify a large number of probable errors and corrections for them in a terminological genomic knowledge repository, thus facilitating its overall maintenance. PMID:18486558

Multiple imputation to account for measurement error in marginal structural models

PubMed Central

Edwards, Jessie K.; Cole, Stephen R.; Westreich, Daniel; Crane, Heidi; Eron, Joseph J.; Mathews, W. Christopher; Moore, Richard; Boswell, Stephen L.; Lesko, Catherine R.; Mugavero, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Background Marginal structural models are an important tool for observational studies. These models typically assume that variables are measured without error. We describe a method to account for differential and non-differential measurement error in a marginal structural model. Methods We illustrate the method estimating the joint effects of antiretroviral therapy initiation and current smoking on all-cause mortality in a United States cohort of 12,290 patients with HIV followed for up to 5 years between 1998 and 2011. Smoking status was likely measured with error, but a subset of 3686 patients who reported smoking status on separate questionnaires composed an internal validation subgroup. We compared a standard joint marginal structural model fit using inverse probability weights to a model that also accounted for misclassification of smoking status using multiple imputation. Results In the standard analysis, current smoking was not associated with increased risk of mortality. After accounting for misclassification, current smoking without therapy was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.2 (95% CI: 0.6, 2.3)]. The HR for current smoking and therapy (0.4 (95% CI: 0.2, 0.7)) was similar to the HR for no smoking and therapy (0.4; 95% CI: 0.2, 0.6). Conclusions Multiple imputation can be used to account for measurement error in concert with methods for causal inference to strengthen results from observational studies. PMID:26214338

A post audit of a model-designed ground water extraction system.

PubMed

Andersen, Peter F; Lu, Silong

2003-01-01

Model post audits test the predictive capabilities of ground water models and shed light on their practical limitations. In the work presented here, ground water model predictions were used to design an extraction/treatment/injection system at a military ammunition facility and then were re-evaluated using site-specific water-level data collected approximately one year after system startup. The water-level data indicated that performance specifications for the design, i.e., containment, had been achieved over the required area, but that predicted water-level changes were greater than observed, particularly in the deeper zones of the aquifer. Probable model error was investigated by determining the changes that were required to obtain an improved match to observed water-level changes. This analysis suggests that the originally estimated hydraulic properties were in error by a factor of two to five. These errors may have resulted from attributing less importance to data from deeper zones of the aquifer and from applying pumping test results to a volume of material that was larger than the volume affected by the pumping test. To determine the importance of these errors to the predictions of interest, the models were used to simulate the capture zones resulting from the originally estimated and updated parameter values. The study suggests that, despite the model error, the ground water model contributed positively to the design of the remediation system.

Clarification of terminology in medication errors: definitions and classification.

PubMed

Ferner, Robin E; Aronson, Jeffrey K

2006-01-01

We have previously described and analysed some terms that are used in drug safety and have proposed definitions. Here we discuss and define terms that are used in the field of medication errors, particularly terms that are sometimes misunderstood or misused. We also discuss the classification of medication errors. A medication error is a failure in the treatment process that leads to, or has the potential to lead to, harm to the patient. Errors can be classified according to whether they are mistakes, slips, or lapses. Mistakes are errors in the planning of an action. They can be knowledge based or rule based. Slips and lapses are errors in carrying out an action - a slip through an erroneous performance and a lapse through an erroneous memory. Classification of medication errors is important because the probabilities of errors of different classes are different, as are the potential remedies.

Lunar crescent visibility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doggett, Leroy E.; Schaefer, Bradley E.

1994-01-01

We report the results of five Moonwatches, in which more than 2000 observers throughout North America attempted to sight the thin lunar crescent. For each Moonwatch we were able to determine the position of the Lunar Date Line (LDL), the line along which a normal observer has a 50% probability of spotting the Moon. The observational LDLs were then compared with predicted LDLs derived from crescent visibility prediction algorithms. We find that ancient and medieval rules are higly unreliable. More recent empirical criteria, based on the relative altitude and azimuth of the Moon at the time of sunset, have a reasonable accuracy, with the best specific formulation being due to Yallop. The modern theoretical model by Schaefer (based on the physiology of the human eye and the local observing conditions) is found to have the least systematic error, the least average error, and the least maximum error of all models tested. Analysis of the observations also provided information about atmospheric, optical and human factors that affect the observations. We show that observational lunar calendars have a natural bias to begin early.

Magnetic resonance imaging-targeted, 3D transrectal ultrasound-guided fusion biopsy for prostate cancer: Quantifying the impact of needle delivery error on diagnosis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, Peter R., E-mail: pmarti46@uwo.ca; Cool, Derek W.; Romagnoli, Cesare

2014-07-15

Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-targeted, 3D transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided “fusion” prostate biopsy intends to reduce the ∼23% false negative rate of clinical two-dimensional TRUS-guided sextant biopsy. Although it has been reported to double the positive yield, MRI-targeted biopsies continue to yield false negatives. Therefore, the authors propose to investigate how biopsy system needle delivery error affects the probability of sampling each tumor, by accounting for uncertainties due to guidance system error, image registration error, and irregular tumor shapes. Methods: T2-weighted, dynamic contrast-enhanced T1-weighted, and diffusion-weighted prostate MRI and 3D TRUS images were obtained from 49 patients. A radiologist and radiologymore » resident contoured 81 suspicious regions, yielding 3D tumor surfaces that were registered to the 3D TRUS images using an iterative closest point prostate surface-based method to yield 3D binary images of the suspicious regions in the TRUS context. The probabilityP of obtaining a sample of tumor tissue in one biopsy core was calculated by integrating a 3D Gaussian distribution over each suspicious region domain. Next, the authors performed an exhaustive search to determine the maximum root mean squared error (RMSE, in mm) of a biopsy system that gives P ≥ 95% for each tumor sample, and then repeated this procedure for equal-volume spheres corresponding to each tumor sample. Finally, the authors investigated the effect of probe-axis-direction error on measured tumor burden by studying the relationship between the error and estimated percentage of core involvement. Results: Given a 3.5 mm RMSE for contemporary fusion biopsy systems,P ≥ 95% for 21 out of 81 tumors. The authors determined that for a biopsy system with 3.5 mm RMSE, one cannot expect to sample tumors of approximately 1 cm{sup 3} or smaller with 95% probability with only one biopsy core. The predicted maximum RMSE giving P ≥ 95% for each tumor was consistently greater when using spherical tumor shapes as opposed to no shape assumption. However, an assumption of spherical tumor shape for RMSE = 3.5 mm led to a mean overestimation of tumor sampling probabilities of 3%, implying that assuming spherical tumor shape may be reasonable for many prostate tumors. The authors also determined that a biopsy system would need to have a RMS needle delivery error of no more than 1.6 mm in order to sample 95% of tumors with one core. The authors’ experiments also indicated that the effect of axial-direction error on the measured tumor burden was mitigated by the 18 mm core length at 3.5 mm RMSE. Conclusions: For biopsy systems with RMSE ≥ 3.5 mm, more than one biopsy core must be taken from the majority of tumors to achieveP ≥ 95%. These observations support the authors’ perspective that some tumors of clinically significant sizes may require more than one biopsy attempt in order to be sampled during the first biopsy session. This motivates the authors’ ongoing development of an approach to optimize biopsy plans with the aim of achieving a desired probability of obtaining a sample from each tumor, while minimizing the number of biopsies. Optimized planning of within-tumor targets for MRI-3D TRUS fusion biopsy could support earlier diagnosis of prostate cancer while it remains localized to the gland and curable.« less

Error protection capability of space shuttle data bus designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Proch, G. E.

1974-01-01

Error protection assurance in the reliability of digital data communications is discussed. The need for error protection on the space shuttle data bus system has been recognized and specified as a hardware requirement. The error protection techniques of particular concern are those designed into the Shuttle Main Engine Interface (MEI) and the Orbiter Multiplex Interface Adapter (MIA). The techniques and circuit design details proposed for these hardware are analyzed in this report to determine their error protection capability. The capability is calculated in terms of the probability of an undetected word error. Calculated results are reported for a noise environment that ranges from the nominal noise level stated in the hardware specifications to burst levels which may occur in extreme or anomalous conditions.

The Effects and Side-Effects of Statistics Education: Psychology Students' (Mis-)Conceptions of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morsanyi, Kinga; Primi, Caterina; Chiesi, Francesca; Handley, Simon

2009-01-01

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists'…

Robust Connectivity in Sensory and Ad Hoc Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

as the prior probability is π0 = 0.8, the error probability should be capped at 0.2. This seemingly pathological result is due to the fact that the...publications and is the author of the book Multirate and Wavelet Signal Processing (Academic Press, 1998). His research interests include multiscale signal and

Lessons Learned from Dependency Usage in HERA: Implications for THERP-Related HRA Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

April M. Whaley; Ronald L. Boring; Harold S. Blackman

Dependency occurs when the probability of success or failure on one action changes the probability of success or failure on a subsequent action. Dependency may serve as a modifier on the human error probabilities (HEPs) for successive actions in human reliability analysis (HRA) models. Discretion should be employed when determining whether or not a dependency calculation is warranted: dependency should not be assigned without strongly grounded reasons. Human reliability analysts may sometimes assign dependency in cases where it is unwarranted. This inappropriate assignment is attributed to a lack of clear guidance to encompass the range of scenarios human reliability analystsmore » are addressing. Inappropriate assignment of dependency produces inappropriately elevated HEP values. Lessons learned about dependency usage in the Human Event Repository and Analysis (HERA) system may provide clarification and guidance for analysts using first-generation HRA methods. This paper presents the HERA approach to dependency assessment and discusses considerations for dependency usage in HRA, including the cognitive basis for dependency, direction for determining when dependency should be assessed, considerations for determining the dependency level, temporal issues to consider when assessing dependency, (e.g., considering task sequence versus overall event sequence, and dependency over long periods of time), and diagnosis and action influences on dependency.« less

Laser damage metrology in biaxial nonlinear crystals using different test beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hildenbrand, Anne; Wagner, Frank R.; Akhouayri, Hassan; Natoli, Jean-Yves; Commandre, Mireille

2008-01-01

Laser damage measurements in nonlinear optical crystals, in particular in biaxial crystals, may be influenced by several effects proper to these materials or greatly enhanced in these materials. Before discussion of these effects, we address the topic of error bar determination for probability measurements. Error bars for the damage probabilities are important because nonlinear crystals are often small and expensive, thus only few sites are used for a single damage probability measurement. We present the mathematical basics and a flow diagram for the numerical calculation of error bars for probability measurements that correspond to a chosen confidence level. Effects that possibly modify the maximum intensity in a biaxial nonlinear crystal are: focusing aberration, walk-off and self-focusing. Depending on focusing conditions, propagation direction, polarization of the light and the position of the focus point in the crystal, strong aberrations may change the beam profile and drastically decrease the maximum intensity in the crystal. A correction factor for this effect is proposed, but quantitative corrections are not possible without taking into account the experimental beam profile after the focusing lens. The characteristics of walk-off and self-focusing have quickly been reviewed for the sake of completeness of this article. Finally, parasitic second harmonic generation may influence the laser damage behavior of crystals. The important point for laser damage measurements is that the amount of externally observed SHG after the crystal does not correspond to the maximum amount of second harmonic light inside the crystal.

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks.

PubMed

He, Jieyue; Wang, Chunyan; Qiu, Kunpu; Zhong, Wei

2014-01-01

Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism evaluation based on circuit simulation method excludes most of subgraphs which are not probability isomorphism and reduces the search space of the probability isomorphism subgraphs using the mismatch values in the node voltage set. It is an innovative way to find the frequent probability patterns, which can be efficiently applied to probability motif discovery problems in the further studies.

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism evaluation based on circuit simulation method excludes most of subgraphs which are not probability isomorphism and reduces the search space of the probability isomorphism subgraphs using the mismatch values in the node voltage set. It is an innovative way to find the frequent probability patterns, which can be efficiently applied to probability motif discovery problems in the further studies. PMID:25350277

Meta-analysis with missing study-level sample variance data.

PubMed

Chowdhry, Amit K; Dworkin, Robert H; McDermott, Michael P

2016-07-30

We consider a study-level meta-analysis with a normally distributed outcome variable and possibly unequal study-level variances, where the object of inference is the difference in means between a treatment and control group. A common complication in such an analysis is missing sample variances for some studies. A frequently used approach is to impute the weighted (by sample size) mean of the observed variances (mean imputation). Another approach is to include only those studies with variances reported (complete case analysis). Both mean imputation and complete case analysis are only valid under the missing-completely-at-random assumption, and even then the inverse variance weights produced are not necessarily optimal. We propose a multiple imputation method employing gamma meta-regression to impute the missing sample variances. Our method takes advantage of study-level covariates that may be used to provide information about the missing data. Through simulation studies, we show that multiple imputation, when the imputation model is correctly specified, is superior to competing methods in terms of confidence interval coverage probability and type I error probability when testing a specified group difference. Finally, we describe a similar approach to handling missing variances in cross-over studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating true human and animal host source contribution in quantitative microbial source tracking using the Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Silkie, Sarah S; Nelson, Kara L; Wuertz, Stefan

2010-09-01

Cultivation- and library-independent, quantitative PCR-based methods have become the method of choice in microbial source tracking. However, these qPCR assays are not 100% specific and sensitive for the target sequence in their respective hosts' genome. The factors that can lead to false positive and false negative information in qPCR results are well defined. It is highly desirable to have a way of removing such false information to estimate the true concentration of host-specific genetic markers and help guide the interpretation of environmental monitoring studies. Here we propose a statistical model based on the Law of Total Probability to predict the true concentration of these markers. The distributions of the probabilities of obtaining false information are estimated from representative fecal samples of known origin. Measurement error is derived from the sample precision error of replicated qPCR reactions. Then, the Monte Carlo method is applied to sample from these distributions of probabilities and measurement error. The set of equations given by the Law of Total Probability allows one to calculate the distribution of true concentrations, from which their expected value, confidence interval and other statistical characteristics can be easily evaluated. The output distributions of predicted true concentrations can then be used as input to watershed-wide total maximum daily load determinations, quantitative microbial risk assessment and other environmental models. This model was validated by both statistical simulations and real world samples. It was able to correct the intrinsic false information associated with qPCR assays and output the distribution of true concentrations of Bacteroidales for each animal host group. Model performance was strongly affected by the precision error. It could perform reliably and precisely when the standard deviation of the precision error was small (≤ 0.1). Further improvement on the precision of sample processing and qPCR reaction would greatly improve the performance of the model. This methodology, built upon Bacteroidales assays, is readily transferable to any other microbial source indicator where a universal assay for fecal sources of that indicator exists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA double-strand-break complexity levels and their possible contributions to the probability for error-prone processing and repair pathway choice.

PubMed

Schipler, Agnes; Iliakis, George

2013-09-01

Although the DNA double-strand break (DSB) is defined as a rupture in the double-stranded DNA molecule that can occur without chemical modification in any of the constituent building blocks, it is recognized that this form is restricted to enzyme-induced DSBs. DSBs generated by physical or chemical agents can include at the break site a spectrum of base alterations (lesions). The nature and number of such chemical alterations define the complexity of the DSB and are considered putative determinants for repair pathway choice and the probability that errors will occur during this processing. As the pathways engaged in DSB processing show distinct and frequently inherent propensities for errors, pathway choice also defines the error-levels cells opt to accept. Here, we present a classification of DSBs on the basis of increasing complexity and discuss how complexity may affect processing, as well as how it may cause lethal or carcinogenic processing errors. By critically analyzing the characteristics of DSB repair pathways, we suggest that all repair pathways can in principle remove lesions clustering at the DSB but are likely to fail when they encounter clusters of DSBs that cause a local form of chromothripsis. In the same framework, we also analyze the rational of DSB repair pathway choice.

Relay-aided free-space optical communications using α - μ distribution over atmospheric turbulence channels with misalignment errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhya, Abhijeet; Dwivedi, Vivek K.; Singh, G.

2018-06-01

In this paper, we have analyzed the performance of dual hop radio frequency (RF)/free-space optical (FSO) fixed gain relay environment confined by atmospheric turbulence induced fading channel over FSO link and modeled using α - μ distribution. The RF hop of the amplify-and-forward scheme undergoes the Rayleigh fading and the proposed system model also considers the pointing error effect on the FSO link. A novel and accurate mathematical expression of the probability density function for a FSO link experiencing α - μ distributed atmospheric turbulence in the presence of pointing error is derived. Further, we have presented analytical expressions of outage probability and bit error rate in terms of Meijer-G function. In addition to this, a useful and mathematically tractable closed-form expression for the end-to-end ergodic capacity of the dual hop scheme in terms of bivariate Fox's H function is derived. The atmospheric turbulence, misalignment errors and various binary modulation schemes for intensity modulation on optical wireless link are considered to yield the results. Finally, we have analyzed each of the three performance metrics for high SNR in order to represent them in terms of elementary functions and the achieved analytical results are supported by computer-based simulations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olama, Mohammed M; Matalgah, Mustafa M; Bobrek, Miljko

Traditional encryption techniques require packet overhead, produce processing time delay, and suffer from severe quality of service deterioration due to fades and interference in wireless channels. These issues reduce the effective transmission data rate (throughput) considerably in wireless communications, where data rate with limited bandwidth is the main constraint. In this paper, performance evaluation analyses are conducted for an integrated signaling-encryption mechanism that is secure and enables improved throughput and probability of bit-error in wireless channels. This mechanism eliminates the drawbacks stated herein by encrypting only a small portion of an entire transmitted frame, while the rest is not subjectmore » to traditional encryption but goes through a signaling process (designed transformation) with the plaintext of the portion selected for encryption. We also propose to incorporate error correction coding solely on the small encrypted portion of the data to drastically improve the overall bit-error rate performance while not noticeably increasing the required bit-rate. We focus on validating the signaling-encryption mechanism utilizing Hamming and convolutional error correction coding by conducting an end-to-end system-level simulation-based study. The average probability of bit-error and throughput of the encryption mechanism are evaluated over standard Gaussian and Rayleigh fading-type channels and compared to the ones of the conventional advanced encryption standard (AES).« less

Modeling and Analysis of Gated, Pulsed RFI and Its Effect on GPS Receivers: Analysis of Average Cycle Slip Rate and Average Bit Error Probability

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

as a function of the pulse duty cycle PDC is [1]: ∆C/N0 = 20 log(1 − PDC ) (1) PDC , PW × PRF (2) where PW represents the pulse width (sec) and PRF is...corresponding degradation in C/N0 should now be modeled as ∆C/N0 = 20 log(1 − PDCLIM) (3) PDCLIM , PDC τobs TTC . (4) The degradation model of Eqn. 3 and 4...cycle that is the product of the duty cycle of the pulsed waveform ( PDC ) and the duty cycle of the of the gating waveform (τobs/TTC). While such a model

Statistical Significance of Optical Map Alignments

PubMed Central

Sarkar, Deepayan; Goldstein, Steve; Schwartz, David C.

2012-01-01

Abstract The Optical Mapping System constructs ordered restriction maps spanning entire genomes through the assembly and analysis of large datasets comprising individually analyzed genomic DNA molecules. Such restriction maps uniquely reveal mammalian genome structure and variation, but also raise computational and statistical questions beyond those that have been solved in the analysis of smaller, microbial genomes. We address the problem of how to filter maps that align poorly to a reference genome. We obtain map-specific thresholds that control errors and improve iterative assembly. We also show how an optimal self-alignment score provides an accurate approximation to the probability of alignment, which is useful in applications seeking to identify structural genomic abnormalities. PMID:22506568

Mixed-venous oxygen tension by nitrogen rebreathing - A critical, theoretical analysis.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelman, G. R.

1972-01-01

There is dispute about the validity of the nitrogen rebreathing technique for determination of mixed-venous oxygen tension. This theoretical analysis examines the circumstances under which the technique is likely to be applicable. When the plateau method is used the probable error in mixed-venous oxygen tension is plus or minus 2.5 mm Hg at rest, and of the order of plus or minus 1 mm Hg during exercise. Provided, that the rebreathing bag size is reasonably chosen, Denison's (1967) extrapolation technique gives results at least as accurate as those obtained by the plateau method. At rest, however, extrapolation should be to 30 rather than to 20 sec.

The performance of trellis coded multilevel DPSK on a fading mobile satellite channel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Marvin K.; Divsalar, Dariush

1987-01-01

The performance of trellis coded multilevel differential phase-shift-keying (MDPSK) over Rician and Rayleigh fading channels is discussed. For operation at L-Band, this signalling technique leads to a more robust system than the coherent system with dual pilot tone calibration previously proposed for UHF. The results are obtained using a combination of analysis and simulation. The analysis shows that the design criterion for trellis codes to be operated on fading channels with interleaving/deinterleaving is no longer free Euclidean distance. The correct design criterion for optimizing bit error probability of trellis coded MDPSK over fading channels will be presented along with examples illustrating its application.

Monte Carlo study on pulse response of underwater optical channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jing; Ma, Yong; Zhou, Qunqun; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Hongyuan

2012-06-01

Pulse response of the underwater wireless optical channel is significant for the analysis of channel capacity and error probability. Traditional vector radiative transfer theory (VRT) is not able to deal with the effect of receiving aperture. On the other hand, general water tank experiments cannot acquire an accurate pulse response due to the limited time resolution of the photo-electronic detector. We present a Monte Carlo simulation model to extract the time-domain pulse response undersea. In comparison with the VRT model, a more accurate pulse response for practical ocean communications could be achieved through statistical analysis of the received photons. The proposed model is more reasonable for the study of the underwater optical channel.

A stochastic differential equation model of diurnal cortisol patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, E. N.; Meehan, P. M.; Dempster, A. P.

2001-01-01

Circadian modulation of episodic bursts is recognized as the normal physiological pattern of diurnal variation in plasma cortisol levels. The primary physiological factors underlying these diurnal patterns are the ultradian timing of secretory events, circadian modulation of the amplitude of secretory events, infusion of the hormone from the adrenal gland into the plasma, and clearance of the hormone from the plasma by the liver. Each measured plasma cortisol level has an error arising from the cortisol immunoassay. We demonstrate that all of these three physiological principles can be succinctly summarized in a single stochastic differential equation plus measurement error model and show that physiologically consistent ranges of the model parameters can be determined from published reports. We summarize the model parameters in terms of the multivariate Gaussian probability density and establish the plausibility of the model with a series of simulation studies. Our framework makes possible a sensitivity analysis in which all model parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. The model offers an approach for simultaneously representing cortisol's ultradian, circadian, and kinetic properties. Our modeling paradigm provides a framework for simulation studies and data analysis that should be readily adaptable to the analysis of other endocrine hormone systems.

Towards automatic Markov reliability modeling of computer architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liceaga, C. A.; Siewiorek, D. P.

1986-01-01

The analysis and evaluation of reliability measures using time-varying Markov models is required for Processor-Memory-Switch (PMS) structures that have competing processes such as standby redundancy and repair, or renewal processes such as transient or intermittent faults. The task of generating these models is tedious and prone to human error due to the large number of states and transitions involved in any reasonable system. Therefore model formulation is a major analysis bottleneck, and model verification is a major validation problem. The general unfamiliarity of computer architects with Markov modeling techniques further increases the necessity of automating the model formulation. This paper presents an overview of the Automated Reliability Modeling (ARM) program, under development at NASA Langley Research Center. ARM will accept as input a description of the PMS interconnection graph, the behavior of the PMS components, the fault-tolerant strategies, and the operational requirements. The output of ARM will be the reliability of availability Markov model formulated for direct use by evaluation programs. The advantages of such an approach are (a) utility to a large class of users, not necessarily expert in reliability analysis, and (b) a lower probability of human error in the computation.

Discriminating quantum-optical beam-splitter channels with number-diagonal signal states: Applications to quantum reading and target detection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nair, Ranjith

2011-09-15

We consider the problem of distinguishing, with minimum probability of error, two optical beam-splitter channels with unequal complex-valued reflectivities using general quantum probe states entangled over M signal and M' idler mode pairs of which the signal modes are bounced off the beam splitter while the idler modes are retained losslessly. We obtain a lower bound on the output state fidelity valid for any pure input state. We define number-diagonal signal (NDS) states to be input states whose density operator in the signal modes is diagonal in the multimode number basis. For such input states, we derive series formulas formore » the optimal error probability, the output state fidelity, and the Chernoff-type upper bounds on the error probability. For the special cases of quantum reading of a classical digital memory and target detection (for which the reflectivities are real valued), we show that for a given input signal photon probability distribution, the fidelity is minimized by the NDS states with that distribution and that for a given average total signal energy N{sub s}, the fidelity is minimized by any multimode Fock state with N{sub s} total signal photons. For reading of an ideal memory, it is shown that Fock state inputs minimize the Chernoff bound. For target detection under high-loss conditions, a no-go result showing the lack of appreciable quantum advantage over coherent state transmitters is derived. A comparison of the error probability performance for quantum reading of number state and two-mode squeezed vacuum state (or EPR state) transmitters relative to coherent state transmitters is presented for various values of the reflectances. While the nonclassical states in general perform better than the coherent state, the quantitative performance gains differ depending on the values of the reflectances. The experimental outlook for realizing nonclassical gains from number state transmitters with current technology at moderate to high values of the reflectances is argued to be good.« less

On Two-Stage Multiple Comparison Procedures When There Are Unequal Sample Sizes in the First Stage.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Rand R.

1984-01-01

Two stage multiple-comparison procedures give an exact solution to problems of power and Type I errors, but require equal sample sizes in the first stage. This paper suggests a method of evaluating the experimentwise Type I error probability when the first stage has unequal sample sizes. (Author/BW)

Planned Hypothesis Tests Are Not Necessarily Exempt from Multiplicity Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frane, Andrew V.

2015-01-01

Scientific research often involves testing more than one hypothesis at a time, which can inflate the probability that a Type I error (false discovery) will occur. To prevent this Type I error inflation, adjustments can be made to the testing procedure that compensate for the number of tests. Yet many researchers believe that such adjustments are…

Stimulus-Outcome Learnability Differentially Activates Anterior Cingulate and Hippocampus at Feedback Processing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Paul F.

2009-01-01

Memory systems are known to be influenced by feedback and error processing, but it is not well known what aspects of outcome contingencies are related to different memory systems. Here we use the Rescorla-Wagner model to estimate prediction errors in an fMRI study of stimulus-outcome association learning. The conditional probabilities of outcomes…

Microcircuit radiation effects databank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Radiation test data submitted by many testers is collated to serve as a reference for engineers who are concerned with and have some knowledge of the effects of the natural radiation environment on microcircuits. Total dose damage information and single event upset cross sections, i.e., the probability of a soft error (bit flip) or of a hard error (latchup) are presented.

Stereotactic probability and variability of speech arrest and anomia sites during stimulation mapping of the language dominant hemisphere.

PubMed

Chang, Edward F; Breshears, Jonathan D; Raygor, Kunal P; Lau, Darryl; Molinaro, Annette M; Berger, Mitchel S

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE Functional mapping using direct cortical stimulation is the gold standard for the prevention of postoperative morbidity during resective surgery in dominant-hemisphere perisylvian regions. Its role is necessitated by the significant interindividual variability that has been observed for essential language sites. The aim in this study was to determine the statistical probability distribution of eliciting aphasic errors for any given stereotactically based cortical position in a patient cohort and to quantify the variability at each cortical site. METHODS Patients undergoing awake craniotomy for dominant-hemisphere primary brain tumor resection between 1999 and 2014 at the authors' institution were included in this study, which included counting and picture-naming tasks during dense speech mapping via cortical stimulation. Positive and negative stimulation sites were collected using an intraoperative frameless stereotactic neuronavigation system and were converted to Montreal Neurological Institute coordinates. Data were iteratively resampled to create mean and standard deviation probability maps for speech arrest and anomia. Patients were divided into groups with a "classic" or an "atypical" location of speech function, based on the resultant probability maps. Patient and clinical factors were then assessed for their association with an atypical location of speech sites by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS Across 102 patients undergoing speech mapping, the overall probabilities of speech arrest and anomia were 0.51 and 0.33, respectively. Speech arrest was most likely to occur with stimulation of the posterior inferior frontal gyrus (maximum probability from individual bin = 0.025), and variance was highest in the dorsal premotor cortex and the posterior superior temporal gyrus. In contrast, stimulation within the posterior perisylvian cortex resulted in the maximum mean probability of anomia (maximum probability = 0.012), with large variance in the regions surrounding the posterior superior temporal gyrus, including the posterior middle temporal, angular, and supramarginal gyri. Patients with atypical speech localization were far more likely to have tumors in canonical Broca's or Wernicke's areas (OR 7.21, 95% CI 1.67-31.09, p < 0.01) or to have multilobar tumors (OR 12.58, 95% CI 2.22-71.42, p < 0.01), than were patients with classic speech localization. CONCLUSIONS This study provides statistical probability distribution maps for aphasic errors during cortical stimulation mapping in a patient cohort. Thus, the authors provide an expected probability of inducing speech arrest and anomia from specific 10-mm 2 cortical bins in an individual patient. In addition, they highlight key regions of interindividual mapping variability that should be considered preoperatively. They believe these results will aid surgeons in their preoperative planning of eloquent cortex resection.

Computer-aided diagnosis with potential application to rapid detection of disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Burr, Tom; Koster, Frederick; Picard, Rick; Forslund, Dave; Wokoun, Doug; Joyce, Ed; Brillman, Judith; Froman, Phil; Lee, Jack

2007-04-15

Our objectives are to quickly interpret symptoms of emergency patients to identify likely syndromes and to improve population-wide disease outbreak detection. We constructed a database of 248 syndromes, each syndrome having an estimated probability of producing any of 85 symptoms, with some two-way, three-way, and five-way probabilities reflecting correlations among symptoms. Using these multi-way probabilities in conjunction with an iterative proportional fitting algorithm allows estimation of full conditional probabilities. Combining these conditional probabilities with misdiagnosis error rates and incidence rates via Bayes theorem, the probability of each syndrome is estimated. We tested a prototype of computer-aided differential diagnosis (CADDY) on simulated data and on more than 100 real cases, including West Nile Virus, Q fever, SARS, anthrax, plague, tularaemia and toxic shock cases. We conclude that: (1) it is important to determine whether the unrecorded positive status of a symptom means that the status is negative or that the status is unknown; (2) inclusion of misdiagnosis error rates produces more realistic results; (3) the naive Bayes classifier, which assumes all symptoms behave independently, is slightly outperformed by CADDY, which includes available multi-symptom information on correlations; as more information regarding symptom correlations becomes available, the advantage of CADDY over the naive Bayes classifier should increase; (4) overlooking low-probability, high-consequence events is less likely if the standard output summary is augmented with a list of rare syndromes that are consistent with observed symptoms, and (5) accumulating patient-level probabilities across a larger population can aid in biosurveillance for disease outbreaks. c 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

RFI in hybrid loops - Simulation and experimental results.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemer, R. E.; Nelson, D. R.; Raghavan, H. R.

1972-01-01

A digital simulation of an imperfect second-order hybrid phase-locked loop (HPLL) operating in radio frequency interference (RFI) is described. Its performance is characterized in terms of phase error variance and phase error probability density function (PDF). Monte-Carlo simulation is used to show that the HPLL can be superior to the conventional phase-locked loops in RFI backgrounds when minimum phase error variance is the goodness criterion. Similar experimentally obtained data are given in support of the simulation data.

Quantum computing and probability.

PubMed

Ferry, David K

2009-11-25

Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

Exploration of multiphoton entangled states by using weak nonlinearities

PubMed Central

He, Ying-Qiu; Ding, Dong; Yan, Feng-Li; Gao, Ting

2016-01-01

We propose a fruitful scheme for exploring multiphoton entangled states based on linear optics and weak nonlinearities. Compared with the previous schemes the present method is more feasible because there are only small phase shifts instead of a series of related functions of photon numbers in the process of interaction with Kerr nonlinearities. In the absence of decoherence we analyze the error probabilities induced by homodyne measurement and show that the maximal error probability can be made small enough even when the number of photons is large. This implies that the present scheme is quite tractable and it is possible to produce entangled states involving a large number of photons. PMID:26751044

Non-airborne conflicts: The causes and effects of runway transgressions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tarrel, Richard J.

1985-01-01

The 1210 ASRS runway transgression reports are studied and expanded to yield descriptive statistics. Additionally, a one of three subset was studied in detail for purposes of evaluating the causes, risks, and consequences behind trangression events. Occurrences are subdivided by enabling factor and flight phase designations. It is concluded that a larger risk of collision is associated with controller enabled departure transgressions over all other categories. The influence of this type is especially evident during the period following the air traffic controllers' strike of 1981. Causal analysis indicates that, coincidentally, controller enabled departure transgressions also, show the strongest correlations between causal factors. It shows that departure errors occur more often when visibility is reduced, and when multiple takeoff runways or intersection takeoffs are employed. In general, runway transgressions attributable to both pilot and controller errors arise from three problem areas: information transfer, awareness, and spatial judgement. Enhanced awareness by controllers will probably reduce controller enabled incidents.

Performance Analysis of Direct-Sequence Code-Division Multiple-Access Communications with Asymmetric Quadrature Phase-Shift-Keying Modulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, C.-W.; Stark, W.

2005-01-01

This article considers a quaternary direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) communication system with asymmetric quadrature phase-shift-keying (AQPSK) modulation for unequal error protection (UEP) capability. Both time synchronous and asynchronous cases are investigated. An expression for the probability distribution of the multiple-access interference is derived. The exact bit-error performance and the approximate performance using a Gaussian approximation and random signature sequences are evaluated by extending the techniques used for uniform quadrature phase-shift-keying (QPSK) and binary phase-shift-keying (BPSK) DS-CDMA systems. Finally, a general system model with unequal user power and the near-far problem is considered and analyzed. The results show that, for a system with UEP capability, the less protected data bits are more sensitive to the near-far effect that occurs in a multiple-access environment than are the more protected bits.

A note on variance estimation in random effects meta-regression.

PubMed

Sidik, Kurex; Jonkman, Jeffrey N

2005-01-01

For random effects meta-regression inference, variance estimation for the parameter estimates is discussed. Because estimated weights are used for meta-regression analysis in practice, the assumed or estimated covariance matrix used in meta-regression is not strictly correct, due to possible errors in estimating the weights. Therefore, this note investigates the use of a robust variance estimation approach for obtaining variances of the parameter estimates in random effects meta-regression inference. This method treats the assumed covariance matrix of the effect measure variables as a working covariance matrix. Using an example of meta-analysis data from clinical trials of a vaccine, the robust variance estimation approach is illustrated in comparison with two other methods of variance estimation. A simulation study is presented, comparing the three methods of variance estimation in terms of bias and coverage probability. We find that, despite the seeming suitability of the robust estimator for random effects meta-regression, the improved variance estimator of Knapp and Hartung (2003) yields the best performance among the three estimators, and thus may provide the best protection against errors in the estimated weights.

The root cause of ability and inability to assemble and install components using written manual with or without diagrams among non-native English speakers: Root cause analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukri, S. Ahmad; Millar, R.; Gratton, G.; Garner, M.; Noh, H. Mohd

2017-12-01

Documentation errors and human errors are often claimed to be the contributory factors for aircraft maintenance mistakes. This paper highlights the preliminary results of the third phase of a four-phased research on communication media that are utilised in an aircraft maintenance organisation. The second phase has looked into the probability of success and failure in completing a task by 60 subjects while in this third phase, the same subjects have been interviewed immediately after completing the task by using Root Cause Analysis (RCA) method. It is discovered that the root cause of their inability to finish the task while using only written manual is the absence of diagrams. However, haste is identified to be the root cause for the incompletion of the task when both manual and diagram are given to the participants. It is observed that those who are able to complete the task is due to their reference to both manual and diagram, simultaneously.

Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Elith, Jane; Tyre, A.; Carmel, Y.; Fegraus, E.; Wintle, B.A.; Burgman, M.; Ben-Haim, Y.

2006-01-01

Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence?absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data?erroneous species presence?absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of apparently equal biological value, one would prefer the option whose value is relatively insensitive to errors in planning inputs. In this work we show how uncertainty analysis for reserve planning can be implemented within a framework of information-gap decision theory, generating reserve designs that are robust to uncertainty. Consideration of uncertainty involves modifications to the typical objective functions used in reserve selection. Search for robust-optimal reserve structures can still be implemented via typical reserve selection optimization techniques, including stepwise heuristics, integer-programming and stochastic global search.

Decision-making when data and inferences are not conclusive: risk-benefit and acceptable regret approach.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Schell, Michael J; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2008-07-01

The absolute truth in research is unobtainable, as no evidence or research hypothesis is ever 100% conclusive. Therefore, all data and inferences can in principle be considered as "inconclusive." Scientific inference and decision-making need to take into account errors, which are unavoidable in the research enterprise. The errors can occur at the level of conclusions that aim to discern the truthfulness of research hypothesis based on the accuracy of research evidence and hypothesis, and decisions, the goal of which is to enable optimal decision-making under present and specific circumstances. To optimize the chance of both correct conclusions and correct decisions, the synthesis of all major statistical approaches to clinical research is needed. The integration of these approaches (frequentist, Bayesian, and decision-analytic) can be accomplished through formal risk:benefit (R:B) analysis. This chapter illustrates the rational choice of a research hypothesis using R:B analysis based on decision-theoretic expected utility theory framework and the concept of "acceptable regret" to calculate the threshold probability of the "truth" above which the benefit of accepting a research hypothesis outweighs its risks.

Comprehensive Anti-error Study on Power Grid Dispatching Based on Regional Regulation and Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yunju; Chen, Zhongyi; Guo, Ming; Lin, Shunsheng; Yan, Yinyang

2018-01-01

With the large capacity of the power system, the development trend of the large unit and the high voltage, the scheduling operation is becoming more frequent and complicated, and the probability of operation error increases. This paper aims at the problem of the lack of anti-error function, single scheduling function and low working efficiency for technical support system in regional regulation and integration, the integrated construction of the error prevention of the integrated architecture of the system of dispatching anti - error of dispatching anti - error of power network based on cloud computing has been proposed. Integrated system of error prevention of Energy Management System, EMS, and Operation Management System, OMS have been constructed either. The system architecture has good scalability and adaptability, which can improve the computational efficiency, reduce the cost of system operation and maintenance, enhance the ability of regional regulation and anti-error checking with broad development prospects.

Using the weighted area under the net benefit curve for decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Talluri, Rajesh; Shete, Sanjay

2016-07-18

Risk prediction models have been proposed for various diseases and are being improved as new predictors are identified. A major challenge is to determine whether the newly discovered predictors improve risk prediction. Decision curve analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the area under the curve and net reclassification index to evaluate the performance of prediction models in clinical scenarios. The decision curve computed using the net benefit can evaluate the predictive performance of risk models at a given or range of threshold probabilities. However, when the decision curves for 2 competing models cross in the range of interest, it is difficult to identify the best model as there is no readily available summary measure for evaluating the predictive performance. The key deterrent for using simple measures such as the area under the net benefit curve is the assumption that the threshold probabilities are uniformly distributed among patients. We propose a novel measure for performing decision curve analysis. The approach estimates the distribution of threshold probabilities without the need of additional data. Using the estimated distribution of threshold probabilities, the weighted area under the net benefit curve serves as the summary measure to compare risk prediction models in a range of interest. We compared 3 different approaches, the standard method, the area under the net benefit curve, and the weighted area under the net benefit curve. Type 1 error and power comparisons demonstrate that the weighted area under the net benefit curve has higher power compared to the other methods. Several simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the improvement in model comparison using the weighted area under the net benefit curve compared to the standard method. The proposed measure improves decision curve analysis by using the weighted area under the curve and thereby improves the power of the decision curve analysis to compare risk prediction models in a clinical scenario.

Analytical Assessment of Simultaneous Parallel Approach Feasibility from Total System Error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madden, Michael M.

2014-01-01

In a simultaneous paired approach to closely-spaced parallel runways, a pair of aircraft flies in close proximity on parallel approach paths. The aircraft pair must maintain a longitudinal separation within a range that avoids wake encounters and, if one of the aircraft blunders, avoids collision. Wake avoidance defines the rear gate of the longitudinal separation. The lead aircraft generates a wake vortex that, with the aid of crosswinds, can travel laterally onto the path of the trail aircraft. As runway separation decreases, the wake has less distance to traverse to reach the path of the trail aircraft. The total system error of each aircraft further reduces this distance. The total system error is often modeled as a probability distribution function. Therefore, Monte-Carlo simulations are a favored tool for assessing a "safe" rear-gate. However, safety for paired approaches typically requires that a catastrophic wake encounter be a rare one-in-a-billion event during normal operation. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation to assert this event rarity with confidence requires a massive number of runs. Such large runs do not lend themselves to rapid turn-around during the early stages of investigation when the goal is to eliminate the infeasible regions of the solution space and to perform trades among the independent variables in the operational concept. One can employ statistical analysis using simplified models more efficiently to narrow the solution space and identify promising trades for more in-depth investigation using Monte-Carlo simulations. These simple, analytical models not only have to address the uncertainty of the total system error but also the uncertainty in navigation sources used to alert an abort of the procedure. This paper presents a method for integrating total system error, procedure abort rates, avionics failures, and surveillance errors into a statistical analysis that identifies the likely feasible runway separations for simultaneous paired approaches.

IMPROVED Ti II log(gf) VALUES AND ABUNDANCE DETERMINATIONS IN THE PHOTOSPHERES OF THE SUN AND METAL-POOR STAR HD 84937

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, M. P.; Lawler, J. E.; Sneden, C.

2013-10-01

Atomic transition probability measurements for 364 lines of Ti II in the UV through near-IR are reported. Branching fractions from data recorded using a Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) and a new echelle spectrometer are combined with published radiative lifetimes to determine these transition probabilities. The new results are in generally good agreement with previously reported FTS measurements. Use of the new echelle spectrometer, independent radiometric calibration methods, and independent data analysis routines enables a reduction of systematic errors and overall improvement in transition probability accuracy over previous measurements. The new Ti II data are applied to high-resolution visible and UVmore » spectra of the Sun and metal-poor star HD 84937 to derive new, more accurate Ti abundances. Lines covering a range of wavelength and excitation potential are used to search for non-LTE effects. The Ti abundances derived using Ti II for these two stars match those derived using Ti I and support the relative Ti/Fe abundance ratio versus metallicity seen in previous studies.« less

The statistical validity of nursing home survey findings.

PubMed

Woolley, Douglas C

2011-11-01

The Medicare nursing home survey is a high-stakes process whose findings greatly affect nursing homes, their current and potential residents, and the communities they serve. Therefore, survey findings must achieve high validity. This study looked at the validity of one key assessment made during a nursing home survey: the observation of the rate of errors in administration of medications to residents (med-pass). Statistical analysis of the case under study and of alternative hypothetical cases. A skilled nursing home affiliated with a local medical school. The nursing home administrators and the medical director. Observational study. The probability that state nursing home surveyors make a Type I or Type II error in observing med-pass error rates, based on the current case and on a series of postulated med-pass error rates. In the common situation such as our case, where med-pass errors occur at slightly above a 5% rate after 50 observations, and therefore trigger a citation, the chance that the true rate remains above 5% after a large number of observations is just above 50%. If the true med-pass error rate were as high as 10%, and the survey team wished to achieve 75% accuracy in determining that a citation was appropriate, they would have to make more than 200 med-pass observations. In the more common situation where med pass errors are closer to 5%, the team would have to observe more than 2000 med-passes to achieve even a modest 75% accuracy in their determinations. In settings where error rates are low, large numbers of observations of an activity must be made to reach acceptable validity of estimates for the true rates of errors. In observing key nursing home functions with current methodology, the State Medicare nursing home survey process does not adhere to well-known principles of valid error determination. Alternate approaches in survey methodology are discussed. Copyright © 2011 American Medical Directors Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the use of biomathematical models in patient-specific IMRT dose QA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhen Heming; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Tome, Wolfgang A.

2013-07-15

Purpose: To investigate the use of biomathematical models such as tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) as new quality assurance (QA) metrics.Methods: Five different types of error (MLC transmission, MLC penumbra, MLC tongue and groove, machine output, and MLC position) were intentionally induced to 40 clinical intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) patient plans (20 H and N cases and 20 prostate cases) to simulate both treatment planning system errors and machine delivery errors in the IMRT QA process. The changes in TCP and NTCP for eight different anatomic structures (H and N: CTV, GTV, both parotids,more » spinal cord, larynx; prostate: CTV, rectal wall) were calculated as the new QA metrics to quantify the clinical impact on patients. The correlation between the change in TCP/NTCP and the change in selected DVH values was also evaluated. The relation between TCP/NTCP change and the characteristics of the TCP/NTCP curves is discussed.Results:{Delta}TCP and {Delta}NTCP were summarized for each type of induced error and each structure. The changes/degradations in TCP and NTCP caused by the errors vary widely depending on dose patterns unique to each plan, and are good indicators of each plan's 'robustness' to that type of error.Conclusions: In this in silico QA study the authors have demonstrated the possibility of using biomathematical models not only as patient-specific QA metrics but also as objective indicators that quantify, pretreatment, a plan's robustness with respect to possible error types.« less