Research on Signature Verification Method Based on Discrete Fréchet Distance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, J. L.; Wu, W.

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a multi-feature signature template based on discrete Fréchet distance, which breaks through the limitation of traditional signature authentication using a single signature feature. It solves the online handwritten signature authentication signature global feature template extraction calculation workload, signature feature selection unreasonable problem. In this experiment, the false recognition rate (FAR) and false rejection rate (FRR) of the statistical signature are calculated and the average equal error rate (AEER) is calculated. The feasibility of the combined template scheme is verified by comparing the average equal error rate of the combination template and the original template.

Accuracy and reliability of forensic latent fingerprint decisions

PubMed Central

Ulery, Bradford T.; Hicklin, R. Austin; Buscaglia, JoAnn; Roberts, Maria Antonia

2011-01-01

The interpretation of forensic fingerprint evidence relies on the expertise of latent print examiners. The National Research Council of the National Academies and the legal and forensic sciences communities have called for research to measure the accuracy and reliability of latent print examiners’ decisions, a challenging and complex problem in need of systematic analysis. Our research is focused on the development of empirical approaches to studying this problem. Here, we report on the first large-scale study of the accuracy and reliability of latent print examiners’ decisions, in which 169 latent print examiners each compared approximately 100 pairs of latent and exemplar fingerprints from a pool of 744 pairs. The fingerprints were selected to include a range of attributes and quality encountered in forensic casework, and to be comparable to searches of an automated fingerprint identification system containing more than 58 million subjects. This study evaluated examiners on key decision points in the fingerprint examination process; procedures used operationally include additional safeguards designed to minimize errors. Five examiners made false positive errors for an overall false positive rate of 0.1%. Eighty-five percent of examiners made at least one false negative error for an overall false negative rate of 7.5%. Independent examination of the same comparisons by different participants (analogous to blind verification) was found to detect all false positive errors and the majority of false negative errors in this study. Examiners frequently differed on whether fingerprints were suitable for reaching a conclusion. PMID:21518906

Accuracy and reliability of forensic latent fingerprint decisions.

PubMed

Ulery, Bradford T; Hicklin, R Austin; Buscaglia, Joann; Roberts, Maria Antonia

2011-05-10

The interpretation of forensic fingerprint evidence relies on the expertise of latent print examiners. The National Research Council of the National Academies and the legal and forensic sciences communities have called for research to measure the accuracy and reliability of latent print examiners' decisions, a challenging and complex problem in need of systematic analysis. Our research is focused on the development of empirical approaches to studying this problem. Here, we report on the first large-scale study of the accuracy and reliability of latent print examiners' decisions, in which 169 latent print examiners each compared approximately 100 pairs of latent and exemplar fingerprints from a pool of 744 pairs. The fingerprints were selected to include a range of attributes and quality encountered in forensic casework, and to be comparable to searches of an automated fingerprint identification system containing more than 58 million subjects. This study evaluated examiners on key decision points in the fingerprint examination process; procedures used operationally include additional safeguards designed to minimize errors. Five examiners made false positive errors for an overall false positive rate of 0.1%. Eighty-five percent of examiners made at least one false negative error for an overall false negative rate of 7.5%. Independent examination of the same comparisons by different participants (analogous to blind verification) was found to detect all false positive errors and the majority of false negative errors in this study. Examiners frequently differed on whether fingerprints were suitable for reaching a conclusion.

Controlling false-negative errors in microarray differential expression analysis: a PRIM approach.

PubMed

Cole, Steve W; Galic, Zoran; Zack, Jerome A

2003-09-22

Theoretical considerations suggest that current microarray screening algorithms may fail to detect many true differences in gene expression (Type II analytic errors). We assessed 'false negative' error rates in differential expression analyses by conventional linear statistical models (e.g. t-test), microarray-adapted variants (e.g. SAM, Cyber-T), and a novel strategy based on hold-out cross-validation. The latter approach employs the machine-learning algorithm Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to infer minimum thresholds for reliable change in gene expression from Boolean conjunctions of fold-induction and raw fluorescence measurements. Monte Carlo analyses based on four empirical data sets show that conventional statistical models and their microarray-adapted variants overlook more than 50% of genes showing significant up-regulation. Conjoint PRIM prediction rules recover approximately twice as many differentially expressed transcripts while maintaining strong control over false-positive (Type I) errors. As a result, experimental replication rates increase and total analytic error rates decline. RT-PCR studies confirm that gene inductions detected by PRIM but overlooked by other methods represent true changes in mRNA levels. PRIM-based conjoint inference rules thus represent an improved strategy for high-sensitivity screening of DNA microarrays. Freestanding JAVA application at http://microarray.crump.ucla.edu/focus

Specificity control for read alignments using an artificial reference genome-guided false discovery rate.

PubMed

Giese, Sven H; Zickmann, Franziska; Renard, Bernhard Y

2014-01-01

Accurate estimation, comparison and evaluation of read mapping error rates is a crucial step in the processing of next-generation sequencing data, as further analysis steps and interpretation assume the correctness of the mapping results. Current approaches are either focused on sensitivity estimation and thereby disregard specificity or are based on read simulations. Although continuously improving, read simulations are still prone to introduce a bias into the mapping error quantitation and cannot capture all characteristics of an individual dataset. We introduce ARDEN (artificial reference driven estimation of false positives in next-generation sequencing data), a novel benchmark method that estimates error rates of read mappers based on real experimental reads, using an additionally generated artificial reference genome. It allows a dataset-specific computation of error rates and the construction of a receiver operating characteristic curve. Thereby, it can be used for optimization of parameters for read mappers, selection of read mappers for a specific problem or for filtering alignments based on quality estimation. The use of ARDEN is demonstrated in a general read mapper comparison, a parameter optimization for one read mapper and an application example in single-nucleotide polymorphism discovery with a significant reduction in the number of false positive identifications. The ARDEN source code is freely available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/arden/.

Multiplicity Control in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cribbie, Robert A.

2007-01-01

Researchers conducting structural equation modeling analyses rarely, if ever, control for the inflated probability of Type I errors when evaluating the statistical significance of multiple parameters in a model. In this study, the Type I error control, power and true model rates of famsilywise and false discovery rate controlling procedures were…

ADEPT, a dynamic next generation sequencing data error-detection program with trimming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Shihai; Lo, Chien-Chi; Li, Po-E

Illumina is the most widely used next generation sequencing technology and produces millions of short reads that contain errors. These sequencing errors constitute a major problem in applications such as de novo genome assembly, metagenomics analysis and single nucleotide polymorphism discovery. In this study, we present ADEPT, a dynamic error detection method, based on the quality scores of each nucleotide and its neighboring nucleotides, together with their positions within the read and compares this to the position-specific quality score distribution of all bases within the sequencing run. This method greatly improves upon other available methods in terms of the truemore » positive rate of error discovery without affecting the false positive rate, particularly within the middle of reads. We conclude that ADEPT is the only tool to date that dynamically assesses errors within reads by comparing position-specific and neighboring base quality scores with the distribution of quality scores for the dataset being analyzed. The result is a method that is less prone to position-dependent under-prediction, which is one of the most prominent issues in error prediction. The outcome is that ADEPT improves upon prior efforts in identifying true errors, primarily within the middle of reads, while reducing the false positive rate.« less

ADEPT, a dynamic next generation sequencing data error-detection program with trimming

DOE PAGES

Feng, Shihai; Lo, Chien-Chi; Li, Po-E; ...

2016-02-29

Illumina is the most widely used next generation sequencing technology and produces millions of short reads that contain errors. These sequencing errors constitute a major problem in applications such as de novo genome assembly, metagenomics analysis and single nucleotide polymorphism discovery. In this study, we present ADEPT, a dynamic error detection method, based on the quality scores of each nucleotide and its neighboring nucleotides, together with their positions within the read and compares this to the position-specific quality score distribution of all bases within the sequencing run. This method greatly improves upon other available methods in terms of the truemore » positive rate of error discovery without affecting the false positive rate, particularly within the middle of reads. We conclude that ADEPT is the only tool to date that dynamically assesses errors within reads by comparing position-specific and neighboring base quality scores with the distribution of quality scores for the dataset being analyzed. The result is a method that is less prone to position-dependent under-prediction, which is one of the most prominent issues in error prediction. The outcome is that ADEPT improves upon prior efforts in identifying true errors, primarily within the middle of reads, while reducing the false positive rate.« less

Trust and the Compliance-Reliance Paradigm: The Effects of Risk, Error Bias, and Reliability on Trust and Dependence.

PubMed

Chancey, Eric T; Bliss, James P; Yamani, Yusuke; Handley, Holly A H

2017-05-01

This study provides a theoretical link between trust and the compliance-reliance paradigm. We propose that for trust mediation to occur, the operator must be presented with a salient choice, and there must be an element of risk for dependence. Research suggests that false alarms and misses affect dependence via two independent processes, hypothesized as trust in signals and trust in nonsignals. These two trust types manifest in categorically different behaviors: compliance and reliance. Eighty-eight participants completed a primary flight task and a secondary signaling system task. Participants evaluated their trust according to the informational bases of trust: performance, process, and purpose. Participants were in a high- or low-risk group. Signaling systems varied by reliability (90%, 60%) within subjects and error bias (false alarm prone, miss prone) between subjects. False-alarm rate affected compliance but not reliance. Miss rate affected reliance but not compliance. Mediation analyses indicated that trust mediated the relationship between false-alarm rate and compliance. Bayesian mediation analyses favored evidence indicating trust did not mediate miss rate and reliance. Conditional indirect effects indicated that factors of trust mediated the relationship between false-alarm rate and compliance (i.e., purpose) and reliance (i.e., process) but only in the high-risk group. The compliance-reliance paradigm is not the reflection of two types of trust. This research could be used to update training and design recommendations that are based upon the assumption that trust causes operator responses regardless of error bias.

Automatic mouse ultrasound detector (A-MUD): A new tool for processing rodent vocalizations

PubMed Central

Reitschmidt, Doris; Noll, Anton; Balazs, Peter; Penn, Dustin J.

2017-01-01

House mice (Mus musculus) emit complex ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) during social and sexual interactions, which have features similar to bird song (i.e., they are composed of several different types of syllables, uttered in succession over time to form a pattern of sequences). Manually processing complex vocalization data is time-consuming and potentially subjective, and therefore, we developed an algorithm that automatically detects mouse ultrasonic vocalizations (Automatic Mouse Ultrasound Detector or A-MUD). A-MUD is a script that runs on STx acoustic software (S_TOOLS-STx version 4.2.2), which is free for scientific use. This algorithm improved the efficiency of processing USV files, as it was 4–12 times faster than manual segmentation, depending upon the size of the file. We evaluated A-MUD error rates using manually segmented sound files as a ‘gold standard’ reference, and compared them to a commercially available program. A-MUD had lower error rates than the commercial software, as it detected significantly more correct positives, and fewer false positives and false negatives. The errors generated by A-MUD were mainly false negatives, rather than false positives. This study is the first to systematically compare error rates for automatic ultrasonic vocalization detection methods, and A-MUD and subsequent versions will be made available for the scientific community. PMID:28727808

Prescription errors before and after introduction of electronic medication alert system in a pediatric emergency department.

PubMed

Sethuraman, Usha; Kannikeswaran, Nirupama; Murray, Kyle P; Zidan, Marwan A; Chamberlain, James M

2015-06-01

Prescription errors occur frequently in pediatric emergency departments (PEDs).The effect of computerized physician order entry (CPOE) with electronic medication alert system (EMAS) on these is unknown. The objective was to compare prescription errors rates before and after introduction of CPOE with EMAS in a PED. The hypothesis was that CPOE with EMAS would significantly reduce the rate and severity of prescription errors in the PED. A prospective comparison of a sample of outpatient, medication prescriptions 5 months before and after CPOE with EMAS implementation (7,268 before and 7,292 after) was performed. Error types and rates, alert types and significance, and physician response were noted. Medication errors were deemed significant if there was a potential to cause life-threatening injury, failure of therapy, or an adverse drug effect. There was a significant reduction in the errors per 100 prescriptions (10.4 before vs. 7.3 after; absolute risk reduction = 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.2 to 4.0). Drug dosing error rates decreased from 8 to 5.4 per 100 (absolute risk reduction = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.8 to 3.4). Alerts were generated for 29.6% of prescriptions, with 45% involving drug dose range checking. The sensitivity of CPOE with EMAS in identifying errors in prescriptions was 45.1% (95% CI = 40.8% to 49.6%), and the specificity was 57% (95% CI = 55.6% to 58.5%). Prescribers modified 20% of the dosing alerts, resulting in the error not reaching the patient. Conversely, 11% of true dosing alerts for medication errors were overridden by the prescribers: 88 (11.3%) resulted in medication errors, and 684 (88.6%) were false-positive alerts. A CPOE with EMAS was associated with a decrease in overall prescription errors in our PED. Further system refinements are required to reduce the high false-positive alert rates. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Malingering in Toxic Exposure. Classification Accuracy of Reliable Digit Span and WAIS-III Digit Span Scaled Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greve, Kevin W.; Springer, Steven; Bianchini, Kevin J.; Black, F. William; Heinly, Matthew T.; Love, Jeffrey M.; Swift, Douglas A.; Ciota, Megan A.

2007-01-01

This study examined the sensitivity and false-positive error rate of reliable digit span (RDS) and the WAIS-III Digit Span (DS) scaled score in persons alleging toxic exposure and determined whether error rates differed from published rates in traumatic brain injury (TBI) and chronic pain (CP). Data were obtained from the files of 123 persons…

Usefulness of biological fingerprint in magnetic resonance imaging for patient verification.

PubMed

Ueda, Yasuyuki; Morishita, Junji; Kudomi, Shohei; Ueda, Katsuhiko

2016-09-01

The purpose of our study is to investigate the feasibility of automated patient verification using multi-planar reconstruction (MPR) images generated from three-dimensional magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of the brain. Several anatomy-related MPR images generated from three-dimensional fast scout scan of each MR examination were used as biological fingerprint images in this study. The database of this study consisted of 730 temporal pairs of MR examination of the brain. We calculated the correlation value between current and prior biological fingerprint images of the same patient and also all combinations of two images for different patients to evaluate the effectiveness of our method for patient verification. The best performance of our system were as follows: a half-total error rate of 1.59 % with a false acceptance rate of 0.023 % and a false rejection rate of 3.15 %, an equal error rate of 1.37 %, and a rank-one identification rate of 98.6 %. Our method makes it possible to verify the identity of the patient using only some existing medical images without the addition of incidental equipment. Also, our method will contribute to patient misidentification error management caused by human errors.

Type-II generalized family-wise error rate formulas with application to sample size determination.

PubMed

Delorme, Phillipe; de Micheaux, Pierre Lafaye; Liquet, Benoit; Riou, Jérémie

2016-07-20

Multiple endpoints are increasingly used in clinical trials. The significance of some of these clinical trials is established if at least r null hypotheses are rejected among m that are simultaneously tested. The usual approach in multiple hypothesis testing is to control the family-wise error rate, which is defined as the probability that at least one type-I error is made. More recently, the q-generalized family-wise error rate has been introduced to control the probability of making at least q false rejections. For procedures controlling this global type-I error rate, we define a type-II r-generalized family-wise error rate, which is directly related to the r-power defined as the probability of rejecting at least r false null hypotheses. We obtain very general power formulas that can be used to compute the sample size for single-step and step-wise procedures. These are implemented in our R package rPowerSampleSize available on the CRAN, making them directly available to end users. Complexities of the formulas are presented to gain insight into computation time issues. Comparison with Monte Carlo strategy is also presented. We compute sample sizes for two clinical trials involving multiple endpoints: one designed to investigate the effectiveness of a drug against acute heart failure and the other for the immunogenicity of a vaccine strategy against pneumococcus. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: effect of sample storage time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franson, J.C.; Hohman, W.L.; Moore, J.L.; Smith, M.R.

1996-01-01

We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback dueks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of ≥0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2010-01-01

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identifications in forensic science

PubMed Central

Song, John; Vorburger, Theodore V.; Chu, Wei; Yen, James; Soons, Johannes A.; Ott, Daniel B.; Zhang, Nien Fan

2018-01-01

Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identification is a fundamental challenge in forensic science. This paper describes the recently developed congruent matching cells (CMC) method for image comparisons, its application to firearm evidence identification, and its usage and initial tests for error rate estimation. The CMC method divides compared topography images into correlation cells. Four identification parameters are defined for quantifying both the topography similarity of the correlated cell pairs and the pattern congruency of the registered cell locations. A declared match requires a significant number of CMCs, i.e., cell pairs that meet all similarity and congruency requirements. Initial testing on breech face impressions of a set of 40 cartridge cases fired with consecutively manufactured pistol slides showed wide separation between the distributions of CMC numbers observed for known matching and known non-matching image pairs. Another test on 95 cartridge cases from a different set of slides manufactured by the same process also yielded widely separated distributions. The test results were used to develop two statistical models for the probability mass function of CMC correlation scores. The models were applied to develop a framework for estimating cumulative false positive and false negative error rates and individual error rates of declared matches and non-matches for this population of breech face impressions. The prospect for applying the models to large populations and realistic case work is also discussed. The CMC method can provide a statistical foundation for estimating error rates in firearm evidence identifications, thus emulating methods used for forensic identification of DNA evidence. PMID:29331680

Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identifications in forensic science.

PubMed

Song, John; Vorburger, Theodore V; Chu, Wei; Yen, James; Soons, Johannes A; Ott, Daniel B; Zhang, Nien Fan

2018-03-01

Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identification is a fundamental challenge in forensic science. This paper describes the recently developed congruent matching cells (CMC) method for image comparisons, its application to firearm evidence identification, and its usage and initial tests for error rate estimation. The CMC method divides compared topography images into correlation cells. Four identification parameters are defined for quantifying both the topography similarity of the correlated cell pairs and the pattern congruency of the registered cell locations. A declared match requires a significant number of CMCs, i.e., cell pairs that meet all similarity and congruency requirements. Initial testing on breech face impressions of a set of 40 cartridge cases fired with consecutively manufactured pistol slides showed wide separation between the distributions of CMC numbers observed for known matching and known non-matching image pairs. Another test on 95 cartridge cases from a different set of slides manufactured by the same process also yielded widely separated distributions. The test results were used to develop two statistical models for the probability mass function of CMC correlation scores. The models were applied to develop a framework for estimating cumulative false positive and false negative error rates and individual error rates of declared matches and non-matches for this population of breech face impressions. The prospect for applying the models to large populations and realistic case work is also discussed. The CMC method can provide a statistical foundation for estimating error rates in firearm evidence identifications, thus emulating methods used for forensic identification of DNA evidence. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Type I and Type II error concerns in fMRI research: re-balancing the scale

PubMed Central

Cunningham, William A.

2009-01-01

Statistical thresholding (i.e. P-values) in fMRI research has become increasingly conservative over the past decade in an attempt to diminish Type I errors (i.e. false alarms) to a level traditionally allowed in behavioral science research. In this article, we examine the unintended negative consequences of this single-minded devotion to Type I errors: increased Type II errors (i.e. missing true effects), a bias toward studying large rather than small effects, a bias toward observing sensory and motor processes rather than complex cognitive and affective processes and deficient meta-analyses. Power analyses indicate that the reductions in acceptable P-values over time are producing dramatic increases in the Type II error rate. Moreover, the push for a mapwide false discovery rate (FDR) of 0.05 is based on the assumption that this is the FDR in most behavioral research; however, this is an inaccurate assessment of the conventions in actual behavioral research. We report simulations demonstrating that combined intensity and cluster size thresholds such as P < 0.005 with a 10 voxel extent produce a desirable balance between Types I and II error rates. This joint threshold produces high but acceptable Type II error rates and produces a FDR that is comparable to the effective FDR in typical behavioral science articles (while a 20 voxel extent threshold produces an actual FDR of 0.05 with relatively common imaging parameters). We recommend a greater focus on replication and meta-analysis rather than emphasizing single studies as the unit of analysis for establishing scientific truth. From this perspective, Type I errors are self-erasing because they will not replicate, thus allowing for more lenient thresholding to avoid Type II errors. PMID:20035017

Software for Quantifying and Simulating Microsatellite Genotyping Error

PubMed Central

Johnson, Paul C.D.; Haydon, Daniel T.

2007-01-01

Microsatellite genetic marker data are exploited in a variety of fields, including forensics, gene mapping, kinship inference and population genetics. In all of these fields, inference can be thwarted by failure to quantify and account for data errors, and kinship inference in particular can benefit from separating errors into two distinct classes: allelic dropout and false alleles. Pedant is MS Windows software for estimating locus-specific maximum likelihood rates of these two classes of error. Estimation is based on comparison of duplicate error-prone genotypes: neither reference genotypes nor pedigree data are required. Other functions include: plotting of error rate estimates and confidence intervals; simulations for performing power analysis and for testing the robustness of error rate estimates to violation of the underlying assumptions; and estimation of expected heterozygosity, which is a required input. The program, documentation and source code are available from http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/~paulj/pedant.html. PMID:20066126

A comparison of acoustic montoring methods for common anurans of the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brauer, Corinne; Donovan, Therese; Mickey, Ruth M.; Katz, Jonathan; Mitchell, Brian R.

2016-01-01

Many anuran monitoring programs now include autonomous recording units (ARUs). These devices collect audio data for extended periods of time with little maintenance and at sites where traditional call surveys might be difficult. Additionally, computer software programs have grown increasingly accurate at automatically identifying the calls of species. However, increased automation may cause increased error. We collected 435 min of audio data with 2 types of ARUs at 10 wetland sites in Vermont and New York, USA, from 1 May to 1 July 2010. For each minute, we determined presence or absence of 4 anuran species (Hyla versicolor, Pseudacris crucifer, Anaxyrus americanus, and Lithobates clamitans) using 1) traditional human identification versus 2) computer-mediated identification with software package, Song Scope® (Wildlife Acoustics, Concord, MA). Detections were compared with a data set consisting of verified calls in order to quantify false positive, false negative, true positive, and true negative rates. Multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed a strong (P < 0.001) 3-way interaction between the ARU recorder type, identification method, and focal species, as well as a trend in the main effect of rain (P = 0.059). Overall, human surveyors had the lowest total error rate (<2%) compared with 18–31% total errors with automated methods. Total error rates varied by species, ranging from 4% for A. americanus to 26% for L. clamitans. The presence of rain may reduce false negative rates. For survey minutes where anurans were known to be calling, the odds of a false negative were increased when fewer individuals of the same species were calling.

False-positive rate determination of protein target discovery using a covalent modification- and mass spectrometry-based proteomics platform.

PubMed

Strickland, Erin C; Geer, M Ariel; Hong, Jiyong; Fitzgerald, Michael C

2014-01-01

Detection and quantitation of protein-ligand binding interactions is important in many areas of biological research. Stability of proteins from rates of oxidation (SPROX) is an energetics-based technique for identifying the proteins targets of ligands in complex biological mixtures. Knowing the false-positive rate of protein target discovery in proteome-wide SPROX experiments is important for the correct interpretation of results. Reported here are the results of a control SPROX experiment in which chemical denaturation data is obtained on the proteins in two samples that originated from the same yeast lysate, as would be done in a typical SPROX experiment except that one sample would be spiked with the test ligand. False-positive rates of 1.2-2.2% and <0.8% are calculated for SPROX experiments using Q-TOF and Orbitrap mass spectrometer systems, respectively. Our results indicate that the false-positive rate is largely determined by random errors associated with the mass spectral analysis of the isobaric mass tag (e.g., iTRAQ®) reporter ions used for peptide quantitation. Our results also suggest that technical replicates can be used to effectively eliminate such false positives that result from this random error, as is demonstrated in a SPROX experiment to identify yeast protein targets of the drug, manassantin A. The impact of ion purity in the tandem mass spectral analyses and of background oxidation on the false-positive rate of protein target discovery using SPROX is also discussed.

Expanded newborn metabolic screening programme in Hong Kong: a three-year journey.

PubMed

Chong, S C; Law, L K; Hui, J; Lai, C Y; Leung, T Y; Yuen, Y P

2017-10-01

No universal expanded newborn screening service for inborn errors of metabolism is available in Hong Kong despite its long history in developed western countries and rapid development in neighbouring Asian countries. To increase the local awareness and preparedness, the Centre of Inborn Errors of Metabolism of the Chinese University of Hong Kong started a private inborn errors of metabolism screening programme in July 2013. This study aimed to describe the results and implementation of this screening programme. We retrieved the demographics of the screened newborns and the screening results from July 2013 to July 2016. These data were used to calculate quality metrics such as call-back rate and false-positive rate. Clinical details of true-positive and false-negative cases and their outcomes were described. Finally, the call-back logistics for newborns with positive screening results were reviewed. During the study period, 30 448 newborns referred from 13 private and public units were screened. Of the samples, 98.3% were collected within 7 days of life. The overall call-back rate was 0.128% (39/30 448) and the false-positive rate was 0.105% (32/30 448). Six neonates were confirmed to have inborn errors of metabolism, including two cases of medium-chain acyl-coenzyme A dehydrogenase deficiency, one case of carnitine-acylcarnitine translocase deficiency, and three milder conditions. One case of maternal carnitine uptake defect was diagnosed. All patients remained asymptomatic at their last follow-up. The Centre of Inborn Errors of Metabolism has established a comprehensive expanded newborn screening programme for selected inborn errors of metabolism. It sets a standard against which the performance of other private newborn screening tests can be compared. Our experience can also serve as a reference for policymakers when they contemplate establishing a government-funded universal expanded newborn screening programme in the future.

An extension of the receiver operating characteristic curve and AUC-optimal classification.

PubMed

Takenouchi, Takashi; Komori, Osamu; Eguchi, Shinto

2012-10-01

While most proposed methods for solving classification problems focus on minimization of the classification error rate, we are interested in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides more information about classification performance than the error rate does. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a natural measure for overall assessment of a classifier based on the ROC curve. We discuss a class of concave functions for AUC maximization in which a boosting-type algorithm including RankBoost is considered, and the Bayesian risk consistency and the lower bound of the optimum function are discussed. A procedure derived by maximizing a specific optimum function has high robustness, based on gross error sensitivity. Additionally, we focus on the partial AUC, which is the partial area under the ROC curve. For example, in medical screening, a high true-positive rate to the fixed lower false-positive rate is preferable and thus the partial AUC corresponding to lower false-positive rates is much more important than the remaining AUC. We extend the class of concave optimum functions for partial AUC optimality with the boosting algorithm. We investigated the validity of the proposed method through several experiments with data sets in the UCI repository.

Time Course of Visual Extrapolation Accuracy

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-09-01

The pond and duckweed problem: Three experiments on the misperception of exponential growth . Acta Psychologica 43, 239-251. Wiener, E.L., 1962...random variation in tracker velocity. Both models predicted changes in hit and false alarm rates well, except in a condition where response asymmetries...systematic velocity error in tracking, only random variation in tracker velocity. Both models predicted changes in hit and false alarm rates well

Effectiveness of Toyota process redesign in reducing thyroid gland fine-needle aspiration error.

PubMed

Raab, Stephen S; Grzybicki, Dana Marie; Sudilovsky, Daniel; Balassanian, Ronald; Janosky, Janine E; Vrbin, Colleen M

2006-10-01

Our objective was to determine whether the Toyota Production System process redesign resulted in diagnostic error reduction for patients who underwent cytologic evaluation of thyroid nodules. In this longitudinal, nonconcurrent cohort study, we compared the diagnostic error frequency of a thyroid aspiration service before and after implementation of error reduction initiatives consisting of adoption of a standardized diagnostic terminology scheme and an immediate interpretation service. A total of 2,424 patients underwent aspiration. Following terminology standardization, the false-negative rate decreased from 41.8% to 19.1% (P = .006), the specimen nondiagnostic rate increased from 5.8% to 19.8% (P < .001), and the sensitivity increased from 70.2% to 90.6% (P < .001). Cases with an immediate interpretation had a lower noninterpretable specimen rate than those without immediate interpretation (P < .001). Toyota process change led to significantly fewer diagnostic errors for patients who underwent thyroid fine-needle aspiration.

Minimizing false positive error with multiple performance validity tests: response to Bilder, Sugar, and Hellemann (2014 this issue).

PubMed

Larrabee, Glenn J

2014-01-01

Bilder, Sugar, and Hellemann (2014 this issue) contend that empirical support is lacking for use of multiple performance validity tests (PVTs) in evaluation of the individual case, differing from the conclusions of Davis and Millis (2014), and Larrabee (2014), who found no substantial increase in false positive rates using a criterion of failure of ≥ 2 PVTs and/or Symptom Validity Tests (SVTs) out of multiple tests administered. Reconsideration of data presented in Larrabee (2014) supports a criterion of ≥ 2 out of up to 7 PVTs/SVTs, as keeping false positive rates close to and in most cases below 10% in cases with bona fide neurologic, psychiatric, and developmental disorders. Strategies to minimize risk of false positive error are discussed, including (1) adjusting individual PVT cutoffs or criterion for number of PVTs failed, for examinees who have clinical histories placing them at risk for false positive identification (e.g., severe TBI, schizophrenia), (2) using the history of the individual case to rule out conditions known to result in false positive errors, (3) using normal performance in domains mimicked by PVTs to show that sufficient native ability exists for valid performance on the PVT(s) that have been failed, and (4) recognizing that as the number of PVTs/SVTs failed increases, the likelihood of valid clinical presentation decreases, with a corresponding increase in the likelihood of invalid test performance and symptom report.

False-negative and false-positive errors in abdominal pain evaluation: failure to diagnose acute appendicitis and unnecessary surgery.

PubMed

Graff, L; Russell, J; Seashore, J; Tate, J; Elwell, A; Prete, M; Werdmann, M; Maag, R; Krivenko, C; Radford, M

2000-11-01

To test the hypothesis that physician errors (failure to diagnose appendicitis at initial evaluation) correlate with adverse outcome. The authors also postulated that physician errors would correlate with delays in surgery, delays in surgery would correlate with adverse outcomes, and physician errors would occur on patients with atypical presentations. This was a retrospective two-arm observational cohort study at 12 acute care hospitals: 1) consecutive patients who had an appendectomy for appendicitis and 2) consecutive emergency department abdominal pain patients. Outcome measures were adverse events (perforation, abscess) and physician diagnostic performance (false-positive decisions, false-negative decisions). The appendectomy arm of the study included 1, 026 patients with 110 (10.5%) false-positive decisions (range by hospital 4.7% to 19.5%). Of the 916 patients with appendicitis, 170 (18.6%) false-negative decisions were made (range by hospital 10.6% to 27.8%). Patients who had false-negative decisions had increased risks of perforation (r = 0.59, p = 0.058) and of abscess formation (r = 0.81, p = 0.002). For admitted patients, when the inhospital delay before surgery was >20 hours, the risk of perforation was increased [2.9 odds ratio (OR) 95% CI = 1.8 to 4.8]. The amount of delay from initial physician evaluation until surgery varied with physician diagnostic performance: 7.0 hours (95% CI = 6.7 to 7.4) if the initial physician made the diagnosis, 72.4 hours (95% CI = 51.2 to 93.7) if the initial office physician missed the diagnosis, and 63.1 hours (95% CI = 47.9 to 78.4) if the initial emergency physician missed the diagnosis. Patients whose diagnosis was initially missed by the physician had fewer signs and symptoms of appendicitis than patients whose diagnosis was made initially [appendicitis score 2.0 (95% CI = 1.6 to 2.3) vs 6.5 (95% CI = 6.4 to 6.7)]. Older patients (>41 years old) had more false-negative decisions and a higher risk of perforation or abscess (3.5 OR 95% CI = 2.4 to 5.1). False-positive decisions were made for patients who had signs and symptoms similar to those of appendicitis patients [appendicitis score 5.7 (95% CI = 5.2 to 6.1) vs 6.5 (95% CI = 6.4 to 6.7)]. Female patients had an increased risk of false-positive surgery (2.3 OR 95% CI = 1.5 to 3.4). The abdominal pain arm of the study included 1,118 consecutive patients submitted by eight hospitals, with 44 patients having appendicitis. Hospitals with observation units compared with hospitals without observation units had a higher "rule out appendicitis" evaluation rate [33.7% (95% CI = 27 to 38) vs 24.7% (95% CI = 23 to 27)] and a similar hospital admission rate (27.6% vs 24.7%, p = NS). There was a lower miss-diagnosis rate (15.1% vs 19.4%, p = NS power 0.02), lower perforation rate (19.0% vs 20.6%, p = NS power 0.05), and lower abscess rate (5.6% vs 6.9%, p = NS power 0.06), but these did not reach statistical significance. Errors in physician diagnostic decisions correlated with patient clinical findings, i.e., the missed diagnoses were on appendicitis patients with few clinical findings and unnecessary surgeries were on non-appendicitis patients with clinical findings similar to those of patients with appendicitis. Adverse events (perforation, abscess formation) correlated with physician false-negative decisions.

Precision and recall estimates for two-hybrid screens

PubMed Central

Huang, Hailiang; Bader, Joel S.

2009-01-01

Motivation: Yeast two-hybrid screens are an important method to map pairwise protein interactions. This method can generate spurious interactions (false discoveries), and true interactions can be missed (false negatives). Previously, we reported a capture–recapture estimator for bait-specific precision and recall. Here, we present an improved method that better accounts for heterogeneity in bait-specific error rates. Result: For yeast, worm and fly screens, we estimate the overall false discovery rates (FDRs) to be 9.9%, 13.2% and 17.0% and the false negative rates (FNRs) to be 51%, 42% and 28%. Bait-specific FDRs and the estimated protein degrees are then used to identify protein categories that yield more (or fewer) false positive interactions and more (or fewer) interaction partners. While membrane proteins have been suggested to have elevated FDRs, the current analysis suggests that intrinsic membrane proteins may actually have reduced FDRs. Hydrophobicity is positively correlated with decreased error rates and fewer interaction partners. These methods will be useful for future two-hybrid screens, which could use ultra-high-throughput sequencing for deeper sampling of interacting bait–prey pairs. Availability: All software (C source) and datasets are available as supplemental files and at http://www.baderzone.org under the Lesser GPL v. 3 license. Contact: joel.bader@jhu.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:19091773

Evaluation of Second-Level Inference in fMRI Analysis

PubMed Central

Roels, Sanne P.; Loeys, Tom; Moerkerke, Beatrijs

2016-01-01

We investigate the impact of decisions in the second-level (i.e., over subjects) inferential process in functional magnetic resonance imaging on (1) the balance between false positives and false negatives and on (2) the data-analytical stability, both proxies for the reproducibility of results. Second-level analysis based on a mass univariate approach typically consists of 3 phases. First, one proceeds via a general linear model for a test image that consists of pooled information from different subjects. We evaluate models that take into account first-level (within-subjects) variability and models that do not take into account this variability. Second, one proceeds via inference based on parametrical assumptions or via permutation-based inference. Third, we evaluate 3 commonly used procedures to address the multiple testing problem: familywise error rate correction, False Discovery Rate (FDR) correction, and a two-step procedure with minimal cluster size. Based on a simulation study and real data we find that the two-step procedure with minimal cluster size results in most stable results, followed by the familywise error rate correction. The FDR results in most variable results, for both permutation-based inference and parametrical inference. Modeling the subject-specific variability yields a better balance between false positives and false negatives when using parametric inference. PMID:26819578

Decisions to shoot in a weapon identification task: The influence of cultural stereotypes and perceived threat on false positive errors.

PubMed

Fleming, Kevin K; Bandy, Carole L; Kimble, Matthew O

2010-01-01

The decision to shoot a gun engages executive control processes that can be biased by cultural stereotypes and perceived threat. The neural locus of the decision to shoot is likely to be found in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), where cognition and affect converge. Male military cadets at Norwich University (N=37) performed a weapon identification task in which they made rapid decisions to shoot when images of guns appeared briefly on a computer screen. Reaction times, error rates, and electroencephalogram (EEG) activity were recorded. Cadets reacted more quickly and accurately when guns were primed by images of Middle-Eastern males wearing traditional clothing. However, cadets also made more false positive errors when tools were primed by these images. Error-related negativity (ERN) was measured for each response. Deeper ERNs were found in the medial-frontal cortex following false positive responses. Cadets who made fewer errors also produced deeper ERNs, indicating stronger executive control. Pupil size was used to measure autonomic arousal related to perceived threat. Images of Middle-Eastern males in traditional clothing produced larger pupil sizes. An image of Osama bin Laden induced the largest pupil size, as would be predicted for the exemplar of Middle East terrorism. Cadets who showed greater increases in pupil size also made more false positive errors. Regression analyses were performed to evaluate predictions based on current models of perceived threat, stereotype activation, and cognitive control. Measures of pupil size (perceived threat) and ERN (cognitive control) explained significant proportions of the variance in false positive errors to Middle-Eastern males in traditional clothing, while measures of reaction time, signal detection response bias, and stimulus discriminability explained most of the remaining variance.

Decisions to Shoot in a Weapon Identification Task: The Influence of Cultural Stereotypes and Perceived Threat on False Positive Errors

PubMed Central

Fleming, Kevin K.; Bandy, Carole L.; Kimble, Matthew O.

2014-01-01

The decision to shoot engages executive control processes that can be biased by cultural stereotypes and perceived threat. The neural locus of the decision to shoot is likely to be found in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) where cognition and affect converge. Male military cadets at Norwich University (N=37) performed a weapon identification task in which they made rapid decisions to shoot when images of guns appeared briefly on a computer screen. Reaction times, error rates, and EEG activity were recorded. Cadets reacted more quickly and accurately when guns were primed by images of middle-eastern males wearing traditional clothing. However, cadets also made more false positive errors when tools were primed by these images. Error-related negativity (ERN) was measured for each response. Deeper ERN’s were found in the medial-frontal cortex following false positive responses. Cadets who made fewer errors also produced deeper ERN’s, indicating stronger executive control. Pupil size was used to measure autonomic arousal related to perceived threat. Images of middle-eastern males in traditional clothing produced larger pupil sizes. An image of Osama bin Laden induced the largest pupil size, as would be predicted for the exemplar of Middle East terrorism. Cadets who showed greater increases in pupil size also made more false positive errors. Regression analyses were performed to evaluate predictions based on current models of perceived threat, stereotype activation, and cognitive control. Measures of pupil size (perceived threat) and ERN (cognitive control) explained significant proportions of the variance in false positive errors to middle-eastern males in traditional clothing, while measures of reaction time, signal detection response bias, and stimulus discriminability explained most of the remaining variance. PMID:19813139

The Use of Error Data to Study the Development of Verbal Encoding of Pictorial Stimuli.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cramer, Phebe

If older children automatically label pictorial stimuli, then their performance should be impaired on tasks in which such labeling would increase the error rate. Children were asked to learn pairs of verbal or pictorial stimuli which, when combined, formed a different compound word (BUTTER-FLY). Subsequently, a false recognition test that included…

Retrieval Failure Contributes to Gist-Based False Recognition

PubMed Central

Guerin, Scott A.; Robbins, Clifford A.; Gilmore, Adrian W.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2011-01-01

People often falsely recognize items that are similar to previously encountered items. This robust memory error is referred to as gist-based false recognition. A widely held view is that this error occurs because the details fade rapidly from our memory. Contrary to this view, an initial experiment revealed that, following the same encoding conditions that produce high rates of gist-based false recognition, participants overwhelmingly chose the correct target rather than its related foil when given the option to do so. A second experiment showed that this result is due to increased access to stored details provided by reinstatement of the originally encoded photograph, rather than to increased attention to the details. Collectively, these results suggest that details needed for accurate recognition are, to a large extent, still stored in memory and that a critical factor determining whether false recognition will occur is whether these details can be accessed during retrieval. PMID:22125357

Dataset for Testing Contamination Source Identification Methods for Water Distribution Networks

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This dataset includes the results of a simulation study using the source inversion techniques available in the Water Security Toolkit. The data was created to test the different techniques for accuracy, specificity, false positive rate, and false negative rate. The tests examined different parameters including measurement error, modeling error, injection characteristics, time horizon, network size, and sensor placement. The water distribution system network models that were used in the study are also included in the dataset. This dataset is associated with the following publication:Seth, A., K. Klise, J. Siirola, T. Haxton , and C. Laird. Testing Contamination Source Identification Methods for Water Distribution Networks. Journal of Environmental Division, Proceedings of American Society of Civil Engineers. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), Reston, VA, USA, ., (2016).

A survey of computational methods and error rate estimation procedures for peptide and protein identification in shotgun proteomics

PubMed Central

Nesvizhskii, Alexey I.

2010-01-01

This manuscript provides a comprehensive review of the peptide and protein identification process using tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) data generated in shotgun proteomic experiments. The commonly used methods for assigning peptide sequences to MS/MS spectra are critically discussed and compared, from basic strategies to advanced multi-stage approaches. A particular attention is paid to the problem of false-positive identifications. Existing statistical approaches for assessing the significance of peptide to spectrum matches are surveyed, ranging from single-spectrum approaches such as expectation values to global error rate estimation procedures such as false discovery rates and posterior probabilities. The importance of using auxiliary discriminant information (mass accuracy, peptide separation coordinates, digestion properties, and etc.) is discussed, and advanced computational approaches for joint modeling of multiple sources of information are presented. This review also includes a detailed analysis of the issues affecting the interpretation of data at the protein level, including the amplification of error rates when going from peptide to protein level, and the ambiguities in inferring the identifies of sample proteins in the presence of shared peptides. Commonly used methods for computing protein-level confidence scores are discussed in detail. The review concludes with a discussion of several outstanding computational issues. PMID:20816881

38 CFR 4.9 - Congenital or developmental defects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Congenital or... SCHEDULE FOR RATING DISABILITIES General Policy in Rating § 4.9 Congenital or developmental defects. Mere congenital or developmental defects, absent, displaced or supernumerary parts, refractive error of the eye...

Analysis of binary responses with outcome-specific misclassification probability in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Rekaya, Romdhane; Smith, Shannon; Hay, El Hamidi; Farhat, Nourhene; Aggrey, Samuel E

2016-01-01

Errors in the binary status of some response traits are frequent in human, animal, and plant applications. These error rates tend to differ between cases and controls because diagnostic and screening tests have different sensitivity and specificity. This increases the inaccuracies of classifying individuals into correct groups, giving rise to both false-positive and false-negative cases. The analysis of these noisy binary responses due to misclassification will undoubtedly reduce the statistical power of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). A threshold model that accommodates varying diagnostic errors between cases and controls was investigated. A simulation study was carried out where several binary data sets (case-control) were generated with varying effects for the most influential single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and different diagnostic error rate for cases and controls. Each simulated data set consisted of 2000 individuals. Ignoring misclassification resulted in biased estimates of true influential SNP effects and inflated estimates for true noninfluential markers. A substantial reduction in bias and increase in accuracy ranging from 12% to 32% was observed when the misclassification procedure was invoked. In fact, the majority of influential SNPs that were not identified using the noisy data were captured using the proposed method. Additionally, truly misclassified binary records were identified with high probability using the proposed method. The superiority of the proposed method was maintained across different simulation parameters (misclassification rates and odds ratios) attesting to its robustness.

How does aging affect the types of error made in a visual short-term memory ‘object-recall’ task?

PubMed Central

Sapkota, Raju P.; van der Linde, Ian; Pardhan, Shahina

2015-01-01

This study examines how normal aging affects the occurrence of different types of incorrect responses in a visual short-term memory (VSTM) object-recall task. Seventeen young (Mean = 23.3 years, SD = 3.76), and 17 normally aging older (Mean = 66.5 years, SD = 6.30) adults participated. Memory stimuli comprised two or four real world objects (the memory load) presented sequentially, each for 650 ms, at random locations on a computer screen. After a 1000 ms retention interval, a test display was presented, comprising an empty box at one of the previously presented two or four memory stimulus locations. Participants were asked to report the name of the object presented at the cued location. Errors rates wherein participants reported the names of objects that had been presented in the memory display but not at the cued location (non-target errors) vs. objects that had not been presented at all in the memory display (non-memory errors) were compared. Significant effects of aging, memory load and target recency on error type and absolute error rates were found. Non-target error rate was higher than non-memory error rate in both age groups, indicating that VSTM may have been more often than not populated with partial traces of previously presented items. At high memory load, non-memory error rate was higher in young participants (compared to older participants) when the memory target had been presented at the earliest temporal position. However, non-target error rates exhibited a reversed trend, i.e., greater error rates were found in older participants when the memory target had been presented at the two most recent temporal positions. Data are interpreted in terms of proactive interference (earlier examined non-target items interfering with more recent items), false memories (non-memory items which have a categorical relationship to presented items, interfering with memory targets), slot and flexible resource models, and spatial coding deficits. PMID:25653615

How does aging affect the types of error made in a visual short-term memory 'object-recall' task?

PubMed

Sapkota, Raju P; van der Linde, Ian; Pardhan, Shahina

2014-01-01

This study examines how normal aging affects the occurrence of different types of incorrect responses in a visual short-term memory (VSTM) object-recall task. Seventeen young (Mean = 23.3 years, SD = 3.76), and 17 normally aging older (Mean = 66.5 years, SD = 6.30) adults participated. Memory stimuli comprised two or four real world objects (the memory load) presented sequentially, each for 650 ms, at random locations on a computer screen. After a 1000 ms retention interval, a test display was presented, comprising an empty box at one of the previously presented two or four memory stimulus locations. Participants were asked to report the name of the object presented at the cued location. Errors rates wherein participants reported the names of objects that had been presented in the memory display but not at the cued location (non-target errors) vs. objects that had not been presented at all in the memory display (non-memory errors) were compared. Significant effects of aging, memory load and target recency on error type and absolute error rates were found. Non-target error rate was higher than non-memory error rate in both age groups, indicating that VSTM may have been more often than not populated with partial traces of previously presented items. At high memory load, non-memory error rate was higher in young participants (compared to older participants) when the memory target had been presented at the earliest temporal position. However, non-target error rates exhibited a reversed trend, i.e., greater error rates were found in older participants when the memory target had been presented at the two most recent temporal positions. Data are interpreted in terms of proactive interference (earlier examined non-target items interfering with more recent items), false memories (non-memory items which have a categorical relationship to presented items, interfering with memory targets), slot and flexible resource models, and spatial coding deficits.

Discrimination of plant-parasitic nematodes from complex soil communities using ecometagenetics.

PubMed

Porazinska, Dorota L; Morgan, Matthew J; Gaspar, John M; Court, Leon N; Hardy, Christopher M; Hodda, Mike

2014-07-01

Many plant pathogens are microscopic, cryptic, and difficult to diagnose. The new approach of ecometagenetics, involving ultrasequencing, bioinformatics, and biostatistics, has the potential to improve diagnoses of plant pathogens such as nematodes from the complex mixtures found in many agricultural and biosecurity situations. We tested this approach on a gradient of complexity ranging from a few individuals from a few species of known nematode pathogens in a relatively defined substrate to a complex and poorly known suite of nematode pathogens in a complex forest soil, including its associated biota of unknown protists, fungi, and other microscopic eukaryotes. We added three known but contrasting species (Pratylenchus neglectus, the closely related P. thornei, and Heterodera avenae) to half the set of substrates, leaving the other half without them. We then tested whether all nematode pathogens-known and unknown, indigenous, and experimentally added-were detected consistently present or absent. We always detected the Pratylenchus spp. correctly and with the number of sequence reads proportional to the numbers added. However, a single cyst of H. avenae was only identified approximately half the time it was present. Other plant-parasitic nematodes and nematodes from other trophic groups were detected well but other eukaryotes were detected less consistently. DNA sampling errors or informatic errors or both were involved in misidentification of H. avenae; however, the proportions of each varied in the different bioinformatic pipelines and with different parameters used. To a large extent, false-positive and false-negative errors were complementary: pipelines and parameters with the highest false-positive rates had the lowest false-negative rates and vice versa. Sources of error identified included assumptions in the bioinformatic pipelines, slight differences in primer regions, the number of sequence reads regarded as the minimum threshold for inclusion in analysis, and inaccessible DNA in resistant life stages. Identification of the sources of error allows us to suggest ways to improve identification using ecometagenetics.

Testing jumps via false discovery rate control.

PubMed

Yen, Yu-Min

2013-01-01

Many recently developed nonparametric jump tests can be viewed as multiple hypothesis testing problems. For such multiple hypothesis tests, it is well known that controlling type I error often makes a large proportion of erroneous rejections, and such situation becomes even worse when the jump occurrence is a rare event. To obtain more reliable results, we aim to control the false discovery rate (FDR), an efficient compound error measure for erroneous rejections in multiple testing problems. We perform the test via the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) test statistic, and control the FDR with the Benjamini and Hochberg (BH) procedure. We provide asymptotic results for the FDR control. From simulations, we examine relevant theoretical results and demonstrate the advantages of controlling the FDR. The hybrid approach is then applied to empirical analysis on two benchmark stock indices with high frequency data.

False memory in aging resulting from self-referential processing.

PubMed

Rosa, Nicole M; Gutchess, Angela H

2013-11-01

Referencing the self is known to enhance accurate memory, but less is known about how the strategy affects false memory, particularly for highly self-relevant information. Because older adults are more prone to false memories, we tested whether self-referencing increased false memories with age. In 2 studies, older and younger adults rated adjectives for self-descriptiveness and later completed a surprise recognition test comprised of words rated previously for self-descriptiveness and novel lure words. Lure words were subsequently rated for self-descriptiveness in order to assess the impact of self-relevance on false memory. Study 2 introduced commonness judgments as a control condition, such that participants completed a recognition test on adjectives rated for commonness in addition to adjectives in the self-descriptiveness condition. Across both studies, findings indicate an increased response bias to self-referencing that increased hit rates for both older and younger adults but also increased false alarms as information became more self-descriptive, particularly for older adults. Although the present study supports previous literature showing a boost in memory for self-referenced information, the increase in false alarms, especially in older adults, highlights the potential for memory errors, particularly for information that is strongly related to the self.

History, Epidemic Evolution, and Model Burn-In for a Network of Annual Invasion: Soybean Rust.

PubMed

Sanatkar, M R; Scoglio, C; Natarajan, B; Isard, S A; Garrett, K A

2015-07-01

Ecological history may be an important driver of epidemics and disease emergence. We evaluated the role of history and two related concepts, the evolution of epidemics and the burn-in period required for fitting a model to epidemic observations, for the U.S. soybean rust epidemic (caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi). This disease allows evaluation of replicate epidemics because the pathogen reinvades the United States each year. We used a new maximum likelihood estimation approach for fitting the network model based on observed U.S. epidemics. We evaluated the model burn-in period by comparing model fit based on each combination of other years of observation. When the miss error rates were weighted by 0.9 and false alarm error rates by 0.1, the mean error rate did decline, for most years, as more years were used to construct models. Models based on observations in years closer in time to the season being estimated gave lower miss error rates for later epidemic years. The weighted mean error rate was lower in backcasting than in forecasting, reflecting how the epidemic had evolved. Ongoing epidemic evolution, and potential model failure, can occur because of changes in climate, host resistance and spatial patterns, or pathogen evolution.

Intra-operative Localization of Brachytherapy Implants Using Intensity-based Registration

PubMed Central

KarimAghaloo, Z.; Abolmaesumi, P.; Ahmidi, N.; Chen, T.K.; Gobbi, D. G.; Fichtinger, G.

2010-01-01

In prostate brachytherapy, a transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) will show the prostate boundary but not all the implanted seeds, while fluoroscopy will show all the seeds clearly but not the boundary. We propose an intensity-based registration between TRUS images and the implant reconstructed from uoroscopy as a means of achieving accurate intra-operative dosimetry. The TRUS images are first filtered and compounded, and then registered to the uoroscopy model via mutual information. A training phantom was implanted with 48 seeds and imaged. Various ultrasound filtering techniques were analyzed, and the best results were achieved with the Bayesian combination of adaptive thresholding, phase congruency, and compensation for the non-uniform ultrasound beam profile in the elevation and lateral directions. The average registration error between corresponding seeds relative to the ground truth was 0.78 mm. The effect of false positives and false negatives in ultrasound were investigated by masking true seeds in the uoroscopy volume or adding false seeds. The registration error remained below 1.01 mm when the false positive rate was 31%, and 0.96 mm when the false negative rate was 31%. This fully automated method delivers excellent registration accuracy and robustness in phantom studies, and promises to demonstrate clinically adequate performance on human data as well. Keywords: Prostate brachytherapy, Ultrasound, Fluoroscopy, Registration. PMID:21152376

False Discovery Control in Large-Scale Spatial Multiple Testing

PubMed Central

Sun, Wenguang; Reich, Brian J.; Cai, T. Tony; Guindani, Michele; Schwartzman, Armin

2014-01-01

Summary This article develops a unified theoretical and computational framework for false discovery control in multiple testing of spatial signals. We consider both point-wise and cluster-wise spatial analyses, and derive oracle procedures which optimally control the false discovery rate, false discovery exceedance and false cluster rate, respectively. A data-driven finite approximation strategy is developed to mimic the oracle procedures on a continuous spatial domain. Our multiple testing procedures are asymptotically valid and can be effectively implemented using Bayesian computational algorithms for analysis of large spatial data sets. Numerical results show that the proposed procedures lead to more accurate error control and better power performance than conventional methods. We demonstrate our methods for analyzing the time trends in tropospheric ozone in eastern US. PMID:25642138

Stereotype threat can reduce older adults' memory errors.

PubMed

Barber, Sarah J; Mather, Mara

2013-01-01

Stereotype threat often incurs the cost of reducing the amount of information that older adults accurately recall. In the current research, we tested whether stereotype threat can also benefit memory. According to the regulatory focus account of stereotype threat, threat induces a prevention focus in which people become concerned with avoiding errors of commission and are sensitive to the presence or absence of losses within their environment. Because of this, we predicted that stereotype threat might reduce older adults' memory errors. Results were consistent with this prediction. Older adults under stereotype threat had lower intrusion rates during free-recall tests (Experiments 1 and 2). They also reduced their false alarms and adopted more conservative response criteria during a recognition test (Experiment 2). Thus, stereotype threat can decrease older adults' false memories, albeit at the cost of fewer veridical memories, as well.

Improved Conflict Detection for Reducing Operational Errors in Air Traffic Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paielli, Russell A.; Erzberger, Hainz

2003-01-01

An operational error is an incident in which an air traffic controller allows the separation between two aircraft to fall below the minimum separation standard. The rates of such errors in the US have increased significantly over the past few years. This paper proposes new detection methods that can help correct this trend by improving on the performance of Conflict Alert, the existing software in the Host Computer System that is intended to detect and warn controllers of imminent conflicts. In addition to the usual trajectory based on the flight plan, a "dead-reckoning" trajectory (current velocity projection) is also generated for each aircraft and checked for conflicts. Filters for reducing common types of false alerts were implemented. The new detection methods were tested in three different ways. First, a simple flightpath command language was developed t o generate precisely controlled encounters for the purpose of testing the detection software. Second, written reports and tracking data were obtained for actual operational errors that occurred in the field, and these were "replayed" to test the new detection algorithms. Finally, the detection methods were used to shadow live traffic, and performance was analysed, particularly with regard to the false-alert rate. The results indicate that the new detection methods can provide timely warnings of imminent conflicts more consistently than Conflict Alert.

SU-G-BRB-11: On the Sensitivity of An EPID-Based 3D Dose Verification System to Detect Delivery Errors in VMAT Treatments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gonzalez, P; Olaciregui-Ruiz, I; Mijnheer, B

2016-06-15

Purpose: To investigate the sensitivity of an EPID-based 3D dose verification system to detect delivery errors in VMAT treatments. Methods: For this study 41 EPID-reconstructed 3D in vivo dose distributions of 15 different VMAT plans (H&N, lung, prostate and rectum) were selected. To simulate the effect of delivery errors, their TPS plans were modified by: 1) scaling of the monitor units by ±3% and ±6% and 2) systematic shifting of leaf bank positions by ±1mm, ±2mm and ±5mm. The 3D in vivo dose distributions where then compared to the unmodified and modified treatment plans. To determine the detectability of themore » various delivery errors, we made use of a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) methodology. True positive and false positive rates were calculated as a function of the γ-parameters γmean, γ1% (near-maximum γ) and the PTV dose parameter ΔD{sub 50} (i.e. D{sub 50}(EPID)-D{sub 50}(TPS)). The ROC curve is constructed by plotting the true positive rate vs. the false positive rate. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) then serves as a measure of the performance of the EPID dosimetry system in detecting a particular error; an ideal system has AUC=1. Results: The AUC ranges for the machine output errors and systematic leaf position errors were [0.64 – 0.93] and [0.48 – 0.92] respectively using γmean, [0.57 – 0.79] and [0.46 – 0.85] using γ1% and [0.61 – 0.77] and [ 0.48 – 0.62] using ΔD{sub 50}. Conclusion: For the verification of VMAT deliveries, the parameter γmean is the best discriminator for the detection of systematic leaf position errors and monitor unit scaling errors. Compared to γmean and γ1%, the parameter ΔD{sub 50} performs worse as a discriminator in all cases.« less

Evaluating suggestibility to additive and contradictory misinformation following explicit error detection in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Huff, Mark J; Umanath, Sharda

2018-06-01

In 2 experiments, we assessed age-related suggestibility to additive and contradictory misinformation (i.e., remembering of false details from an external source). After reading a fictional story, participants answered questions containing misleading details that were either additive (misleading details that supplemented an original event) or contradictory (errors that changed original details). On a final test, suggestibility was greater for additive than contradictory misinformation, and older adults endorsed fewer false contradictory details than younger adults. To mitigate suggestibility in Experiment 2, participants were warned about potential errors, instructed to detect errors, or instructed to detect errors after exposure to examples of additive and contradictory details. Again, suggestibility to additive misinformation was greater than contradictory, and older adults endorsed less contradictory misinformation. Only after detection instructions with misinformation examples were younger adults able to reduce contradictory misinformation effects and reduced these effects to the level of older adults. Additive misinformation however, was immune to all warning and detection instructions. Thus, older adults were less susceptible to contradictory misinformation errors, and younger adults could match this misinformation rate when warning/detection instructions were strong. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Reducing Error Rates for Iris Image using higher Contrast in Normalization process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminu Ghali, Abdulrahman; Jamel, Sapiee; Abubakar Pindar, Zahraddeen; Hasssan Disina, Abdulkadir; Mat Daris, Mustafa

2017-08-01

Iris recognition system is the most secured, and faster means of identification and authentication. However, iris recognition system suffers a setback from blurring, low contrast and illumination due to low quality image which compromises the accuracy of the system. The acceptance or rejection rates of verified user depend solely on the quality of the image. In many cases, iris recognition system with low image contrast could falsely accept or reject user. Therefore this paper adopts Histogram Equalization Technique to address the problem of False Rejection Rate (FRR) and False Acceptance Rate (FAR) by enhancing the contrast of the iris image. A histogram equalization technique enhances the image quality and neutralizes the low contrast of the image at normalization stage. The experimental result shows that Histogram Equalization Technique has reduced FRR and FAR compared to the existing techniques.

Evaluation of Natural Language Processing (NLP) Systems to Annotate Drug Product Labeling with MedDRA Terminology.

PubMed

Ly, Thomas; Pamer, Carol; Dang, Oanh; Brajovic, Sonja; Haider, Shahrukh; Botsis, Taxiarchis; Milward, David; Winter, Andrew; Lu, Susan; Ball, Robert

2018-05-31

The FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) is a primary data source for identifying unlabeled adverse events (AEs) in a drug or biologic drug product's postmarketing phase. Many AE reports must be reviewed by drug safety experts to identify unlabeled AEs, even if the reported AEs are previously identified, labeled AEs. Integrating the labeling status of drug product AEs into FAERS could increase report triage and review efficiency. Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) is the standard for coding AE terms in FAERS cases. However, drug manufacturers are not required to use MedDRA to describe AEs in product labels. We hypothesized that natural language processing (NLP) tools could assist in automating the extraction and MedDRA mapping of AE terms in drug product labels. We evaluated the performance of three NLP systems, (ETHER, I2E, MetaMap) for their ability to extract AE terms from drug labels and translate the terms to MedDRA Preferred Terms (PTs). Pharmacovigilance-based annotation guidelines for extracting AE terms from drug labels were developed for this study. We compared each system's output to MedDRA PT AE lists, manually mapped by FDA pharmacovigilance experts using the guidelines, for ten drug product labels known as the "gold standard AE list" (GSL) dataset. Strict time and configuration conditions were imposed in order to test each system's capabilities under conditions of no human intervention and minimal system configuration. Each NLP system's output was evaluated for precision, recall and F measure in comparison to the GSL. A qualitative error analysis (QEA) was conducted to categorize a random sample of each NLP system's false positive and false negative errors. A total of 417, 278, and 250 false positive errors occurred in the ETHER, I2E, and MetaMap outputs, respectively. A total of 100, 80, and 187 false negative errors occurred in ETHER, I2E, and MetaMap outputs, respectively. Precision ranged from 64% to 77%, recall from 64% to 83% and F measure from 67% to 79%. I2E had the highest precision (77%), recall (83%) and F measure (79%). ETHER had the lowest precision (64%). MetaMap had the lowest recall (64%). The QEA found that the most prevalent false positive errors were context errors such as "Context error/General term", "Context error/Instructions or monitoring parameters", "Context error/Medical history preexisting condition underlying condition risk factor or contraindication", and "Context error/AE manifestations or secondary complication". The most prevalent false negative errors were in the "Incomplete or missed extraction" error category. Missing AE terms were typically due to long terms, or terms containing non-contiguous words which do not correspond exactly to MedDRA synonyms. MedDRA mapping errors were a minority of errors for ETHER and I2E but were the most prevalent false positive errors for MetaMap. The results demonstrate that it may be feasible to use NLP tools to extract and map AE terms to MedDRA PTs. However, the NLP tools we tested would need to be modified or reconfigured to lower the error rates to support their use in a regulatory setting. Tools specific for extracting AE terms from drug labels and mapping the terms to MedDRA PTs may need to be developed to support pharmacovigilance. Conducting research using additional NLP systems on a larger, diverse GSL would also be informative. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Multiple hypotheses testing based on ordered p values--a historical survey with applications to medical research.

PubMed

Hommel, Gerhard; Bretz, Frank; Maurer, Willi

2011-07-01

Global tests and multiple test procedures are often based on ordered p values. Such procedures are available for arbitrary dependence structures as well as for specific dependence assumptions of the test statistics. Most of these procedures have been considered as global tests. Multiple test procedures can be obtained by applying the closure principle in order to control the familywise error rate, or by using the false discovery rate as a criterion for type I error rate control. We provide an overview and present examples showing the importance of these procedures in medical research. Finally, we discuss modifications when different weights for the hypotheses of interest are chosen.

Characterisation of false-positive observations in botanical surveys

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Errors in botanical surveying are a common problem. The presence of a species is easily overlooked, leading to false-absences; while misidentifications and other mistakes lead to false-positive observations. While it is common knowledge that these errors occur, there are few data that can be used to quantify and describe these errors. Here we characterise false-positive errors for a controlled set of surveys conducted as part of a field identification test of botanical skill. Surveys were conducted at sites with a verified list of vascular plant species. The candidates were asked to list all the species they could identify in a defined botanically rich area. They were told beforehand that their final score would be the sum of the correct species they listed, but false-positive errors counted against their overall grade. The number of errors varied considerably between people, some people create a high proportion of false-positive errors, but these are scattered across all skill levels. Therefore, a person’s ability to correctly identify a large number of species is not a safeguard against the generation of false-positive errors. There was no phylogenetic pattern to falsely observed species; however, rare species are more likely to be false-positive as are species from species rich genera. Raising the threshold for the acceptance of an observation reduced false-positive observations dramatically, but at the expense of more false negative errors. False-positive errors are higher in field surveying of plants than many people may appreciate. Greater stringency is required before accepting species as present at a site, particularly for rare species. Combining multiple surveys resolves the problem, but requires a considerable increase in effort to achieve the same sensitivity as a single survey. Therefore, other methods should be used to raise the threshold for the acceptance of a species. For example, digital data input systems that can verify, feedback and inform the user are likely to reduce false-positive errors significantly. PMID:28533972

The human false-negative rate of rescreening Pap tests. Measured in a two-arm prospective clinical trial.

PubMed

Renshaw, A A; Lezon, K M; Wilbur, D C

2001-04-25

Routine quality control rescreening often is used to calculate the false-negative rate (FNR) of gynecologic cytology. Theoretic analysis suggests that this is not appropriate, due to the high FNR of rescreening and the inability to actually measure it. The authors sought to determine the FNR of manual rescreening in a large, prospective, two-arm clinical trial using an analytic instrument in the evaluation. The results of the Autopap System Clinical Trial, encompassing 25,124 analyzed slides, were reviewed. The false-negative and false-positive rates at various thresholds were determined for routine primary screening, routine rescreening, Autopap primary screening, and Autopap rescreening by using a simple, standard methodology. The FNR of routine manual rescreening at the level of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) was 73%, more than 3 times the FNR of primary screening; 11 cases were detected. The FNR of Autopap rescreening was 34%; 80 cases were detected. Routine manual rescreening decreased the laboratory FNR by less than 1%; Autopap rescreening reduced the overall laboratory FNR by 5.7%. At the same time, the false-positive rate for Autopap screening was significantly less than that of routine manual screening at the ASCUS level (4.7% vs. 5.6%; P < 0.0001). Rescreening with the Autopap system remained more sensitive than manual rescreening at the low grade squamous intraepithelial lesions threshold (FNR of 58.8% vs. 100%, respectively), although the number of cases rescreened was low. Routine manual rescreening cannot be used to calculate the FNR of primary screening. Routine rescreening is an extremely ineffective method to detect error and thereby decrease a laboratory's FNR. The Autopap system is a much more effective way of detecting errors within a laboratory and reduces the laboratory's FNR by greater than 25%.

The optimal power puzzle: scrutiny of the monotone likelihood ratio assumption in multiple testing.

PubMed

Cao, Hongyuan; Sun, Wenguang; Kosorok, Michael R

2013-01-01

In single hypothesis testing, power is a non-decreasing function of type I error rate; hence it is desirable to test at the nominal level exactly to achieve optimal power. The puzzle lies in the fact that for multiple testing, under the false discovery rate paradigm, such a monotonic relationship may not hold. In particular, exact false discovery rate control may lead to a less powerful testing procedure if a test statistic fails to fulfil the monotone likelihood ratio condition. In this article, we identify different scenarios wherein the condition fails and give caveats for conducting multiple testing in practical settings.

False Memory in Aging Resulting From Self-Referential Processing

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objectives. Referencing the self is known to enhance accurate memory, but less is known about how the strategy affects false memory, particularly for highly self-relevant information. Because older adults are more prone to false memories, we tested whether self-referencing increased false memories with age. Method. In 2 studies, older and younger adults rated adjectives for self-descriptiveness and later completed a surprise recognition test comprised of words rated previously for self-descriptiveness and novel lure words. Lure words were subsequently rated for self-descriptiveness in order to assess the impact of self-relevance on false memory. Study 2 introduced commonness judgments as a control condition, such that participants completed a recognition test on adjectives rated for commonness in addition to adjectives in the self-descriptiveness condition. Results. Across both studies, findings indicate an increased response bias to self-referencing that increased hit rates for both older and younger adults but also increased false alarms as information became more self-descriptive, particularly for older adults. Discussion. Although the present study supports previous literature showing a boost in memory for self-referenced information, the increase in false alarms, especially in older adults, highlights the potential for memory errors, particularly for information that is strongly related to the self. PMID:23576449

Specificity of reliable change models and review of the within-subjects standard deviation as an error term.

PubMed

Hinton-Bayre, Anton D

2011-02-01

There is an ongoing debate over the preferred method(s) for determining the reliable change (RC) in individual scores over time. In the present paper, specificity comparisons of several classic and contemporary RC models were made using a real data set. This included a more detailed review of a new RC model recently proposed in this journal, that used the within-subjects standard deviation (WSD) as the error term. It was suggested that the RC(WSD) was more sensitive to change and theoretically superior. The current paper demonstrated that even in the presence of mean practice effects, false-positive rates were comparable across models when reliability was good and initial and retest variances were equivalent. However, when variances differed, discrepancies in classification across models became evident. Notably, the RC using the WSD provided unacceptably high false-positive rates in this setting. It was considered that the WSD was never intended for measuring change in this manner. The WSD actually combines systematic and error variance. The systematic variance comes from measurable between-treatment differences, commonly referred to as practice effect. It was further demonstrated that removal of the systematic variance and appropriate modification of the residual error term for the purpose of testing individual change yielded an error term already published and criticized in the literature. A consensus on the RC approach is needed. To that end, further comparison of models under varied conditions is encouraged.

Stereotype threat can reduce older adults' memory errors

PubMed Central

Barber, Sarah J.; Mather, Mara

2014-01-01

Stereotype threat often incurs the cost of reducing the amount of information that older adults accurately recall. In the current research we tested whether stereotype threat can also benefit memory. According to the regulatory focus account of stereotype threat, threat induces a prevention focus in which people become concerned with avoiding errors of commission and are sensitive to the presence or absence of losses within their environment (Seibt & Förster, 2004). Because of this, we predicted that stereotype threat might reduce older adults' memory errors. Results were consistent with this prediction. Older adults under stereotype threat had lower intrusion rates during free-recall tests (Experiments 1 & 2). They also reduced their false alarms and adopted more conservative response criteria during a recognition test (Experiment 2). Thus, stereotype threat can decrease older adults' false memories, albeit at the cost of fewer veridical memories, as well. PMID:24131297

Factors that influence the generation of autobiographical memory conjunction errors

PubMed Central

Devitt, Aleea L.; Monk-Fromont, Edwin; Schacter, Daniel L.; Addis, Donna Rose

2015-01-01

The constructive nature of memory is generally adaptive, allowing us to efficiently store, process and learn from life events, and simulate future scenarios to prepare ourselves for what may come. However, the cost of a flexibly constructive memory system is the occasional conjunction error, whereby the components of an event are authentic, but the combination of those components is false. Using a novel recombination paradigm, it was demonstrated that details from one autobiographical memory may be incorrectly incorporated into another, forming autobiographical memory conjunction errors that elude typical reality monitoring checks. The factors that contribute to the creation of these conjunction errors were examined across two experiments. Conjunction errors were more likely to occur when the corresponding details were partially rather than fully recombined, likely due to increased plausibility and ease of simulation of partially recombined scenarios. Brief periods of imagination increased conjunction error rates, in line with the imagination inflation effect. Subjective ratings suggest that this inflation is due to similarity of phenomenological experience between conjunction and authentic memories, consistent with a source monitoring perspective. Moreover, objective scoring of memory content indicates that increased perceptual detail may be particularly important for the formation of autobiographical memory conjunction errors. PMID:25611492

Factors that influence the generation of autobiographical memory conjunction errors.

PubMed

Devitt, Aleea L; Monk-Fromont, Edwin; Schacter, Daniel L; Addis, Donna Rose

2016-01-01

The constructive nature of memory is generally adaptive, allowing us to efficiently store, process and learn from life events, and simulate future scenarios to prepare ourselves for what may come. However, the cost of a flexibly constructive memory system is the occasional conjunction error, whereby the components of an event are authentic, but the combination of those components is false. Using a novel recombination paradigm, it was demonstrated that details from one autobiographical memory (AM) may be incorrectly incorporated into another, forming AM conjunction errors that elude typical reality monitoring checks. The factors that contribute to the creation of these conjunction errors were examined across two experiments. Conjunction errors were more likely to occur when the corresponding details were partially rather than fully recombined, likely due to increased plausibility and ease of simulation of partially recombined scenarios. Brief periods of imagination increased conjunction error rates, in line with the imagination inflation effect. Subjective ratings suggest that this inflation is due to similarity of phenomenological experience between conjunction and authentic memories, consistent with a source monitoring perspective. Moreover, objective scoring of memory content indicates that increased perceptual detail may be particularly important for the formation of AM conjunction errors.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

PubMed

Dionisio, Kathie L; Chang, Howard H; Baxter, Lisa K

2016-11-25

Exposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health. ZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NO x , EC, PM 2.5 , SO 4 , O 3 ) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error. Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs. Substantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3-85% for population error, and 31-85% for total error. When CO, NO x or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copollutants based on the estimated type I error rate. The impact of exposure error must be considered when interpreting results of copollutant epidemiologic models, due to the possibility of attenuation of main pollutant RRs and the increased probability of false positives when measurement error is present.

How allele frequency and study design affect association test statistics with misrepresentation errors.

PubMed

Escott-Price, Valentina; Ghodsi, Mansoureh; Schmidt, Karl Michael

2014-04-01

We evaluate the effect of genotyping errors on the type-I error of a general association test based on genotypes, showing that, in the presence of errors in the case and control samples, the test statistic asymptotically follows a scaled non-central $\\chi ^2$ distribution. We give explicit formulae for the scaling factor and non-centrality parameter for the symmetric allele-based genotyping error model and for additive and recessive disease models. They show how genotyping errors can lead to a significantly higher false-positive rate, growing with sample size, compared with the nominal significance levels. The strength of this effect depends very strongly on the population distribution of the genotype, with a pronounced effect in the case of rare alleles, and a great robustness against error in the case of large minor allele frequency. We also show how these results can be used to correct $p$-values.

Neural network for photoplethysmographic respiratory rate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, Anders

2001-10-01

The photoplethysmographic signal (PPG) includes respiratory components seen as frequency modulation of the heart rate (respiratory sinus arrhythmia, RSA), amplitude modulation of the cardiac pulse, and respiratory induced intensity variations (RIIV) in the PPG baseline. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of these components in determining respiratory rate, and to combine the components in a neural network for improved accuracy. The primary goal is to design a PPG ventilation monitoring system. PPG signals were recorded from 15 healthy subjects. From these signals, the systolic waveform, diastolic waveform, respiratory sinus arrhythmia, pulse amplitude and RIIV were extracted. By using simple algorithms, the rates of false positive and false negative detection of breaths were calculated for each of the five components in a separate analysis. Furthermore, a simple neural network (NN) was tried out in a combined pattern recognition approach. In the separate analysis, the error rates (sum of false positives and false negatives) ranged from 9.7% (pulse amplitude) to 14.5% (systolic waveform). The corresponding value of the NN analysis was 9.5-9.6%.

SU-G-BRB-03: Assessing the Sensitivity and False Positive Rate of the Integrated Quality Monitor (IQM) Large Area Ion Chamber to MLC Positioning Errors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boehnke, E McKenzie; DeMarco, J; Steers, J

2016-06-15

Purpose: To examine both the IQM’s sensitivity and false positive rate to varying MLC errors. By balancing these two characteristics, an optimal tolerance value can be derived. Methods: An un-modified SBRT Liver IMRT plan containing 7 fields was randomly selected as a representative clinical case. The active MLC positions for all fields were perturbed randomly from a square distribution of varying width (±1mm to ±5mm). These unmodified and modified plans were measured multiple times each by the IQM (a large area ion chamber mounted to a TrueBeam linac head). Measurements were analyzed relative to the initial, unmodified measurement. IQM readingsmore » are analyzed as a function of control points. In order to examine sensitivity to errors along a field’s delivery, each measured field was divided into 5 groups of control points, and the maximum error in each group was recorded. Since the plans have known errors, we compared how well the IQM is able to differentiate between unmodified and error plans. ROC curves and logistic regression were used to analyze this, independent of thresholds. Results: A likelihood-ratio Chi-square test showed that the IQM could significantly predict whether a plan had MLC errors, with the exception of the beginning and ending control points. Upon further examination, we determined there was ramp-up occurring at the beginning of delivery. Once the linac AFC was tuned, the subsequent measurements (relative to a new baseline) showed significant (p <0.005) abilities to predict MLC errors. Using the area under the curve, we show the IQM’s ability to detect errors increases with increasing MLC error (Spearman’s Rho=0.8056, p<0.0001). The optimal IQM count thresholds from the ROC curves are ±3%, ±2%, and ±7% for the beginning, middle 3, and end segments, respectively. Conclusion: The IQM has proven to be able to detect not only MLC errors, but also differences in beam tuning (ramp-up). Partially supported by the Susan Scott Foundation.« less

GenomePeek—an online tool for prokaryotic genome and metagenome analysis

DOE PAGES

McNair, Katelyn; Edwards, Robert A.

2015-06-16

As increases in prokaryotic sequencing take place, a method to quickly and accurately analyze this data is needed. Previous tools are mainly designed for metagenomic analysis and have limitations; such as long runtimes and significant false positive error rates. The online tool GenomePeek (edwards.sdsu.edu/GenomePeek) was developed to analyze both single genome and metagenome sequencing files, quickly and with low error rates. GenomePeek uses a sequence assembly approach where reads to a set of conserved genes are extracted, assembled and then aligned against the highly specific reference database. GenomePeek was found to be faster than traditional approaches while still keeping errormore » rates low, as well as offering unique data visualization options.« less

Brain fingerprinting field studies comparing P300-MERMER and P300 brainwave responses in the detection of concealed information.

PubMed

Farwell, Lawrence A; Richardson, Drew C; Richardson, Graham M

2013-08-01

Brain fingerprinting detects concealed information stored in the brain by measuring brainwave responses. We compared P300 and P300-MERMER event-related brain potentials for error rate/accuracy and statistical confidence in four field/real-life studies. 76 tests detected presence or absence of information regarding (1) real-life events including felony crimes; (2) real crimes with substantial consequences (either a judicial outcome, i.e., evidence admitted in court, or a $100,000 reward for beating the test); (3) knowledge unique to FBI agents; and (4) knowledge unique to explosives (EOD/IED) experts. With both P300 and P300-MERMER, error rate was 0 %: determinations were 100 % accurate, no false negatives or false positives; also no indeterminates. Countermeasures had no effect. Median statistical confidence for determinations was 99.9 % with P300-MERMER and 99.6 % with P300. Brain fingerprinting methods and scientific standards for laboratory and field applications are discussed. Major differences in methods that produce different results are identified. Markedly different methods in other studies have produced over 10 times higher error rates and markedly lower statistical confidences than those of these, our previous studies, and independent replications. Data support the hypothesis that accuracy, reliability, and validity depend on following the brain fingerprinting scientific standards outlined herein.

Real-time detection of faecally contaminated drinking water with tryptophan-like fluorescence: defining threshold values.

PubMed

Sorensen, James P R; Baker, Andy; Cumberland, Susan A; Lapworth, Dan J; MacDonald, Alan M; Pedley, Steve; Taylor, Richard G; Ward, Jade S T

2018-05-01

We assess the use of fluorescent dissolved organic matter at excitation-emission wavelengths of 280nm and 360nm, termed tryptophan-like fluorescence (TLF), as an indicator of faecally contaminated drinking water. A significant logistic regression model was developed using TLF as a predictor of thermotolerant coliforms (TTCs) using data from groundwater- and surface water-derived drinking water sources in India, Malawi, South Africa and Zambia. A TLF threshold of 1.3ppb dissolved tryptophan was selected to classify TTC contamination. Validation of the TLF threshold indicated a false-negative error rate of 15% and a false-positive error rate of 18%. The threshold was unsuccessful at classifying contaminated sources containing <10 TTC cfu per 100mL, which we consider the current limit of detection. If only sources above this limit were classified, the false-negative error rate was very low at 4%. TLF intensity was very strongly correlated with TTC concentration (ρ s =0.80). A higher threshold of 6.9ppb dissolved tryptophan is proposed to indicate heavily contaminated sources (≥100 TTC cfu per 100mL). Current commercially available fluorimeters are easy-to-use, suitable for use online and in remote environments, require neither reagents nor consumables, and crucially provide an instantaneous reading. TLF measurements are not appreciably impaired by common intereferents, such as pH, turbidity and temperature, within typical natural ranges. The technology is a viable option for the real-time screening of faecally contaminated drinking water globally. Copyright © 2017 Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as represented by the British Geological Survey (BGS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adult age differences in unconscious transference: source confusion or identity blending?

PubMed

Perfect, Timothy J; Harris, Lucy J

2003-06-01

Eyewitnesses are known often to falsely identify a familiar but innocent bystander when asked to pick out a perpetrator from a lineup. Such unconscious transference errors have been attributed to either identity confusions at encoding or source retrieval errors. Three experiments contrasted younger and older adults in their susceptibility to such misidentifications. Participants saw photographs of perpetrators, then a series of mug shots of innocent bystanders. A week later, they saw lineups containing bystanders (and others containing perpetrators in Experiment 3) and were asked whether any of the perpetrators were present. When younger faces were used as stimuli (Experiments 1 and 3), older adults showed higher rates of transference errors. When older faces were used as stimuli (Experiments 2 and 3), no such age effects in rates of unconscious transference were apparent. In addition, older adults in Experiment 3 showed an own-age bias effect for correct identification of targets. Unconscious transference errors were found to be due to both source retrieval errors and identity confusions, but age-related increases were found only in the latter.

Pollen flow in the wildservice tree, Sorbus torminalis (L.) Crantz. I. Evaluating the paternity analysis procedure in continuous populations.

PubMed

Oddou-Muratorio, S; Houot, M-L; Demesure-Musch, B; Austerlitz, F

2003-12-01

The joint development of polymorphic molecular markers and paternity analysis methods provides new approaches to investigate ongoing patterns of pollen flow in natural plant populations. However, paternity studies are hindered by false paternity assignment and the nondetection of true fathers. To gauge the risk of these two types of errors, we performed a simulation study to investigate the impact on paternity analysis of: (i) the assumed values for the size of the breeding male population (NBMP), and (ii) the rate of scoring error in genotype assessment. Our simulations were based on microsatellite data obtained from a natural population of the entomophilous wild service tree, Sorbus torminalis (L.) Crantz. We show that an accurate estimate of NBMP is required to minimize both types of errors, and we assess the reliability of a technique used to estimate NBMP based on parent-offspring genetic data. We then show that scoring errors in genotype assessment only slightly affect the assessment of paternity relationships, and conclude that it is generally better to neglect the scoring error rate in paternity analyses within a nonisolated population.

An investigation into false-negative transthoracic fine needle aspiration and core biopsy specimens.

PubMed

Minot, Douglas M; Gilman, Elizabeth A; Aubry, Marie-Christine; Voss, Jesse S; Van Epps, Sarah G; Tuve, Delores J; Sciallis, Andrew P; Henry, Michael R; Salomao, Diva R; Lee, Peter; Carlson, Stephanie K; Clayton, Amy C

2014-12-01

Transthoracic fine needle aspiration (TFNA)/core needle biopsy (CNB) under computed tomography (CT) guidance has proved useful in the assessment of pulmonary nodules. We sought to determine the TFNA false-negative (FN) rate at our institution and identify potential causes of FN diagnoses. Medical records were reviewed from 1,043 consecutive patients who underwent CT-guided TFNA with or without CNB of lung nodules over a 5-year time period (2003-2007). Thirty-seven FN cases of "negative" TFNA/CNB with malignant outcome were identified with 36 cases available for review, of which 35 had a corresponding CNB. Cases were reviewed independently (blinded to original diagnosis) by three pathologists with 15 age- and sex-matched positive and negative controls. Diagnosis (i.e., nondiagnostic, negative or positive for malignancy, atypical or suspicious) and qualitative assessments were recorded. Consensus diagnosis was suspicious or positive in 10 (28%) of 36 TFNA cases and suspicious in 1 (3%) of 35 CNB cases, indicating potential interpretive errors. Of the 11 interpretive errors (including both suspicious and positive cases), 8 were adenocarcinomas, 1 squamous cell carcinoma, 1 metastatic renal cell carcinoma, and 1 lymphoma. The remaining 25 FN cases (69.4%) were considered sampling errors and consisted of 7 adenocarcinomas, 3 nonsmall cell carcinomas, 3 lymphomas, 2 squamous cell carcinomas, and 2 renal cell carcinomas. Interpretive and sampling error cases were more likely to abut the pleura, while histopathologically, they tended to be necrotic and air-dried. The overall FN rate in this patient cohort is 3.5% (1.1% interpretive and 2.4% sampling errors). © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

When the Single Matters more than the Group (II): Addressing the Problem of High False Positive Rates in Single Case Voxel Based Morphometry Using Non-parametric Statistics.

PubMed

Scarpazza, Cristina; Nichols, Thomas E; Seramondi, Donato; Maumet, Camille; Sartori, Giuseppe; Mechelli, Andrea

2016-01-01

In recent years, an increasing number of studies have used Voxel Based Morphometry (VBM) to compare a single patient with a psychiatric or neurological condition of interest against a group of healthy controls. However, the validity of this approach critically relies on the assumption that the single patient is drawn from a hypothetical population with a normal distribution and variance equal to that of the control group. In a previous investigation, we demonstrated that family-wise false positive error rate (i.e., the proportion of statistical comparisons yielding at least one false positive) in single case VBM are much higher than expected (Scarpazza et al., 2013). Here, we examine whether the use of non-parametric statistics, which does not rely on the assumptions of normal distribution and equal variance, would enable the investigation of single subjects with good control of false positive risk. We empirically estimated false positive rates (FPRs) in single case non-parametric VBM, by performing 400 statistical comparisons between a single disease-free individual and a group of 100 disease-free controls. The impact of smoothing (4, 8, and 12 mm) and type of pre-processing (Modulated, Unmodulated) was also examined, as these factors have been found to influence FPRs in previous investigations using parametric statistics. The 400 statistical comparisons were repeated using two independent, freely available data sets in order to maximize the generalizability of the results. We found that the family-wise error rate was 5% for increases and 3.6% for decreases in one data set; and 5.6% for increases and 6.3% for decreases in the other data set (5% nominal). Further, these results were not dependent on the level of smoothing and modulation. Therefore, the present study provides empirical evidence that single case VBM studies with non-parametric statistics are not susceptible to high false positive rates. The critical implication of this finding is that VBM can be used to characterize neuroanatomical alterations in individual subjects as long as non-parametric statistics are employed.

Localized Glaucomatous Change Detection within the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Framework

PubMed Central

Balasubramanian, Madhusudhanan; Kriegman, David J.; Bowd, Christopher; Holst, Michael; Weinreb, Robert N.; Sample, Pamela A.; Zangwill, Linda M.

2012-01-01

Purpose. To detect localized glaucomatous structural changes using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) framework with false-positive control that minimizes confirmatory follow-ups, and to compare the results to topographic change analysis (TCA). Methods. We included 167 participants (246 eyes) with ≥4 Heidelberg Retina Tomograph (HRT)-II exams from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study; 36 eyes progressed by stereo-photographs or visual fields. All other patient eyes (n = 210) were non-progressing. Specificities were evaluated using 21 normal eyes. Significance of change at each HRT superpixel between each follow-up and its nearest baseline (obtained using POD) was estimated using mixed-effects ANOVA. Locations with significant reduction in retinal height (red pixels) were determined using Bonferroni, Lehmann-Romano k-family-wise error rate (k-FWER), and Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) type I error control procedures. Observed positive rate (OPR) in each follow-up was calculated as a ratio of number of red pixels within disk to disk size. Progression by POD was defined as one or more follow-ups with OPR greater than the anticipated false-positive rate. TCA was evaluated using the recently proposed liberal, moderate, and conservative progression criteria. Results. Sensitivity in progressors, specificity in normals, and specificity in non-progressors, respectively, were POD-Bonferroni = 100%, 0%, and 0%; POD k-FWER = 78%, 86%, and 43%; POD-FDR = 78%, 86%, and 43%; POD k-FWER with retinal height change ≥50 μm = 61%, 95%, and 60%; TCA-liberal = 86%, 62%, and 21%; TCA-moderate = 53%, 100%, and 70%; and TCA-conservative = 17%, 100%, and 84%. Conclusions. With a stronger control of type I errors, k-FWER in POD framework minimized confirmatory follow-ups while providing diagnostic accuracy comparable to TCA. Thus, POD with k-FWER shows promise to reduce the number of confirmatory follow-ups required for clinical care and studies evaluating new glaucoma treatments. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00221897.) PMID:22491406

Assessing differential expression in two-color microarrays: a resampling-based empirical Bayes approach.

PubMed

Li, Dongmei; Le Pape, Marc A; Parikh, Nisha I; Chen, Will X; Dye, Timothy D

2013-01-01

Microarrays are widely used for examining differential gene expression, identifying single nucleotide polymorphisms, and detecting methylation loci. Multiple testing methods in microarray data analysis aim at controlling both Type I and Type II error rates; however, real microarray data do not always fit their distribution assumptions. Smyth's ubiquitous parametric method, for example, inadequately accommodates violations of normality assumptions, resulting in inflated Type I error rates. The Significance Analysis of Microarrays, another widely used microarray data analysis method, is based on a permutation test and is robust to non-normally distributed data; however, the Significance Analysis of Microarrays method fold change criteria are problematic, and can critically alter the conclusion of a study, as a result of compositional changes of the control data set in the analysis. We propose a novel approach, combining resampling with empirical Bayes methods: the Resampling-based empirical Bayes Methods. This approach not only reduces false discovery rates for non-normally distributed microarray data, but it is also impervious to fold change threshold since no control data set selection is needed. Through simulation studies, sensitivities, specificities, total rejections, and false discovery rates are compared across the Smyth's parametric method, the Significance Analysis of Microarrays, and the Resampling-based empirical Bayes Methods. Differences in false discovery rates controls between each approach are illustrated through a preterm delivery methylation study. The results show that the Resampling-based empirical Bayes Methods offer significantly higher specificity and lower false discovery rates compared to Smyth's parametric method when data are not normally distributed. The Resampling-based empirical Bayes Methods also offers higher statistical power than the Significance Analysis of Microarrays method when the proportion of significantly differentially expressed genes is large for both normally and non-normally distributed data. Finally, the Resampling-based empirical Bayes Methods are generalizable to next generation sequencing RNA-seq data analysis.

Evaluating methods of correcting for multiple comparisons implemented in SPM12 in social neuroscience fMRI studies: an example from moral psychology.

PubMed

Han, Hyemin; Glenn, Andrea L

2018-06-01

In fMRI research, the goal of correcting for multiple comparisons is to identify areas of activity that reflect true effects, and thus would be expected to replicate in future studies. Finding an appropriate balance between trying to minimize false positives (Type I error) while not being too stringent and omitting true effects (Type II error) can be challenging. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of these types of errors may differ for different areas of study. In many areas of social neuroscience that involve complex processes and considerable individual differences, such as the study of moral judgment, effects are typically smaller and statistical power weaker, leading to the suggestion that less stringent corrections that allow for more sensitivity may be beneficial and also result in more false positives. Using moral judgment fMRI data, we evaluated four commonly used methods for multiple comparison correction implemented in Statistical Parametric Mapping 12 by examining which method produced the most precise overlap with results from a meta-analysis of relevant studies and with results from nonparametric permutation analyses. We found that voxelwise thresholding with familywise error correction based on Random Field Theory provides a more precise overlap (i.e., without omitting too few regions or encompassing too many additional regions) than either clusterwise thresholding, Bonferroni correction, or false discovery rate correction methods.

A Study of False-Positive and False-Negative Error Rates in Cartridge Case Comparisons

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-07

materials for the study, in particular Vicki Sieve. 3 Abstract: This report provides the details for a study designed to...participate in ASCLD were provided with 15 sets of 3 known + 1 unknown cartridge cases fired from a collection of 25 new Ruger SR9 handguns . The...answer sheet allowing for the AFTE range of conclusions, and return shipping materials . They were also asked to assess how many of the 3 knowns were

Effectiveness of screening aqueous contrast swallow in detecting clinically significant anastomotic leaks after esophagectomy.

PubMed

Tirnaksiz, M B; Deschamps, C; Allen, M S; Johnson, D C; Pairolero, P C

2005-01-01

Aqueous contrast swallow study is recommended as a screening procedure for the evaluation of esophageal anastomotic integrity following esophagectomy. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of water-soluble contrast swallow screening as a predictor of clinically significant anastomotic leak in patients with esophagectomy. The records of 505 consecutive patients undergoing esophagectomy in Mayo Clinic from January 1991 through December 1995 were retrospectively reviewed. 464 (92%) patients had water-soluble contrast swallows performed in the early postoperative period (median postoperative day 7, range 4-11 days). A total of 39 radiological leaks were obtained but only 17 of these had clinical signs of anastomotic leakage. Furthermore, 25 patients who had normal swallow study developed a clinical anastomotic leak. There were therefore 22 (4.7%) false positive and 25 (5.4%) false negative results giving values for the specificity, sensitivity and false negative error rate of the radiological examination of 94.7, 40.4, and 59.5% respectively. Aspiration of the contrast agent was noted on fluoroscopy in 30 (6.5%) patients. Only 2 (0.4%) patients developed aqueous contrast agent-caused aspiration pneumonia. There was no procedure-related mortality. While radiological assessment of esophageal anastomoses in the early postoperative period using aqueous contrast agents appears to be a relatively safe procedure, the poor sensitivity and high false negative error rate of this technique, when performed on postoperative day 7 and in a series with clinical anastomotic leak rate of 9%, is insufficient for it to be worthwhile as a screening procedure. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Best research practices in psychology: Illustrating epistemological and pragmatic considerations with the case of relationship science.

PubMed

Finkel, Eli J; Eastwick, Paul W; Reis, Harry T

2015-02-01

In recent years, a robust movement has emerged within psychology to increase the evidentiary value of our science. This movement, which has analogs throughout the empirical sciences, is broad and diverse, but its primary emphasis has been on the reduction of statistical false positives. The present article addresses epistemological and pragmatic issues that we, as a field, must consider as we seek to maximize the scientific value of this movement. Regarding epistemology, this article contrasts the false-positives-reduction (FPR) approach with an alternative, the error balance (EB) approach, which argues that any serious consideration of optimal scientific practice must contend simultaneously with both false-positive and false-negative errors. Regarding pragmatics, the movement has devoted a great deal of attention to issues that frequently arise in laboratory experiments and one-shot survey studies, but it has devoted less attention to issues that frequently arise in intensive and/or longitudinal studies. We illustrate these epistemological and pragmatic considerations with the case of relationship science, one of the many research domains that frequently employ intensive and/or longitudinal methods. Specifically, we examine 6 research prescriptions that can help to reduce false-positive rates: preregistration, prepublication sharing of materials, postpublication sharing of data, close replication, avoiding piecemeal publication, and increasing sample size. For each, we offer concrete guidance not only regarding how researchers can improve their research practices and balance the risk of false-positive and false-negative errors, but also how the movement can capitalize upon insights from research practices within relationship science to make the movement stronger and more inclusive. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

DCT-based iris recognition.

PubMed

Monro, Donald M; Rakshit, Soumyadip; Zhang, Dexin

2007-04-01

This paper presents a novel iris coding method based on differences of discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of overlapped angular patches from normalized iris images. The feature extraction capabilities of the DCT are optimized on the two largest publicly available iris image data sets, 2,156 images of 308 eyes from the CASIA database and 2,955 images of 150 eyes from the Bath database. On this data, we achieve 100 percent Correct Recognition Rate (CRR) and perfect Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves with no registered false accepts or rejects. Individual feature bit and patch position parameters are optimized for matching through a product-of-sum approach to Hamming distance calculation. For verification, a variable threshold is applied to the distance metric and the False Acceptance Rate (FAR) and False Rejection Rate (FRR) are recorded. A new worst-case metric is proposed for predicting practical system performance in the absence of matching failures, and the worst case theoretical Equal Error Rate (EER) is predicted to be as low as 2.59 x 10(-4) on the available data sets.

49 CFR 385.15 - Administrative review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Administrative review. 385.15 Section 385.15... General § 385.15 Administrative review. (a) A motor carrier may request the FMCSA to conduct an administrative review if it believes FMCSA has committed an error in assigning its proposed safety rating in...

45 CFR 98.101 - Case Review Methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Case Review Methodology. 98.101 Section 98.101 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.101 Case Review Methodology. (a) Case Reviews and Sampling—In preparing...

45 CFR 98.101 - Case Review Methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Case Review Methodology. 98.101 Section 98.101 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.101 Case Review Methodology. (a) Case Reviews and Sampling—In preparing...

45 CFR 98.101 - Case Review Methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Case Review Methodology. 98.101 Section 98.101 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.101 Case Review Methodology. (a) Case Reviews and Sampling—In preparing...

45 CFR 98.101 - Case Review Methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Case Review Methodology. 98.101 Section 98.101 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.101 Case Review Methodology. (a) Case Reviews and Sampling—In preparing...

45 CFR 98.101 - Case Review Methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Case Review Methodology. 98.101 Section 98.101 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.101 Case Review Methodology. (a) Case Reviews and Sampling—In preparing...

Tuberculosis cure rates and the ETR.Net: investigating the quality of reporting treatment outcomes from primary healthcare facilities in Mpumalanga province, South Africa.

PubMed

Dreyer, A W; Mbambo, D; Machaba, M; Oliphant, C E M; Claassens, M M

2017-03-10

Tuberculosis control programs rely on accurate collection of routine surveillance data to inform program decisions including resource allocation and specific interventions. The electronic TB register (ETR.Net) is dependent on accurate data transcription from both paperbased clinical records and registers at the facilities to report treatment outcome data. The study describes the quality of reporting of TB treatment outcomes from facilities in the Ehlanzeni District, Mpumalanga Province. A descriptive crossectional study of primary healthcare facilities in the district for the period 1 January - 31 December 2010 was performed. New smear positive TB cure rate data was obtained from the ETR.Net followed by verification of paperbased clinical records, both TB folders and the TB register, of 20% of all new smear positive cases across the district for correct reporting to the ETR.Net. Facilities were grouped according to high (>70%) and low cure rates (≤ 70%) as well as high (> 20%) and low (≤ 20%) error proportions in reporting. Kappa statistic was used to determine agreement between paperbased record, TB register and ETR.Net. Of the100 facilities (951 patient clinical records), 51(51%) had high cure rates and high error proportions, 14(14%) had a high cure rate and low error proportion whereas 30(30%) had low cure rates and high error proportions and five (5%) had a low cure rate with low error proportion. Fair agreement was observed (Kappa = 0.33) overall and between registers. Of the 473 patient clinical records which indicated cured, 383(81%) was correctly captured onto the ETR.Net, whereas 51(10.8%) was incorrectly captured and 39(8.2%) was not captured at all. Over reporting of treatment success of 12% occurred on the ETR.Net. The high error proportion in reporting onto the ETR.Net could result in a false sense of improvement in the TB control programme in the Ehlanzeni district.

Are false-positive rates leading to an overestimation of noise-induced hearing loss?

PubMed

Schlauch, Robert S; Carney, Edward

2011-04-01

To estimate false-positive rates for rules proposed to identify early noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) using the presence of notches in audiograms. Audiograms collected from school-age children in a national survey of health and nutrition (the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey [NHANES III]; National Center for Health Statistics, 1994) were examined using published rules for identifying noise notches at various pass-fail criteria. These results were compared with computer-simulated "flat" audiograms. The proportion of these identified as having a noise notch is an estimate of the false-positive rate for a particular rule. Audiograms from the NHANES III for children 6-11 years of age yielded notched audiograms at rates consistent with simulations, suggesting that this group does not have significant NIHL. Further, pass-fail criteria for rules suggested by expert clinicians, applied to NHANES III audiometric data, yielded unacceptably high false-positive rates. Computer simulations provide an effective method for estimating false-positive rates for protocols used to identify notched audiograms. Audiometric precision could possibly be improved by (a) eliminating systematic calibration errors, including a possible problem with reference levels for TDH-style earphones; (b) repeating and averaging threshold measurements; and (c) using earphones that yield lower variability for 6.0 and 8.0 kHz--2 frequencies critical for identifying noise notches.

Analysis of space telescope data collection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.; Schoggen, W. O.

1982-01-01

An analysis of the expected performance for the Multiple Access (MA) system is provided. The analysis covers the expected bit error rate performance, the effects of synchronization loss, the problem of self-interference, and the problem of phase ambiguity. The problem of false acceptance of a command word due to data inversion is discussed. A mathematical determination of the probability of accepting an erroneous command word due to a data inversion is presented. The problem is examined for three cases: (1) a data inversion only, (2) a data inversion and a random error within the same command word, and a block (up to 256 48-bit words) containing both a data inversion and a random error.

The "subjective" pupil old/new effect: is the truth plain to see?

PubMed

Montefinese, Maria; Ambrosini, Ettore; Fairfield, Beth; Mammarella, Nicola

2013-07-01

Human memory is an imperfect process, prone to distortion and errors that range from minor disturbances to major errors that can have serious consequences on everyday life. In this study, we investigated false remembering of manipulatory verbs using an explicit recognition task and pupillometry. Our results replicated the "classical" pupil old/new effect as well as data in false remembering literature that show how items must be recognize as old in order for the pupil size to increase (e.g., "subjective" pupil old/new effect), even though these items do not necessarily have to be truly old. These findings support the strength-of-memory trace account that affirms that pupil dilation is related to experience rather than to the accuracy of recognition. Moreover, behavioral results showed higher rates of true and false recognitions for manipulatory verbs and a consequent larger pupil diameter, supporting the embodied view of language. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient error correction for next-generation sequencing of viral amplicons

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Next-generation sequencing allows the analysis of an unprecedented number of viral sequence variants from infected patients, presenting a novel opportunity for understanding virus evolution, drug resistance and immune escape. However, sequencing in bulk is error prone. Thus, the generated data require error identification and correction. Most error-correction methods to date are not optimized for amplicon analysis and assume that the error rate is randomly distributed. Recent quality assessment of amplicon sequences obtained using 454-sequencing showed that the error rate is strongly linked to the presence and size of homopolymers, position in the sequence and length of the amplicon. All these parameters are strongly sequence specific and should be incorporated into the calibration of error-correction algorithms designed for amplicon sequencing. Results In this paper, we present two new efficient error correction algorithms optimized for viral amplicons: (i) k-mer-based error correction (KEC) and (ii) empirical frequency threshold (ET). Both were compared to a previously published clustering algorithm (SHORAH), in order to evaluate their relative performance on 24 experimental datasets obtained by 454-sequencing of amplicons with known sequences. All three algorithms show similar accuracy in finding true haplotypes. However, KEC and ET were significantly more efficient than SHORAH in removing false haplotypes and estimating the frequency of true ones. Conclusions Both algorithms, KEC and ET, are highly suitable for rapid recovery of error-free haplotypes obtained by 454-sequencing of amplicons from heterogeneous viruses. The implementations of the algorithms and data sets used for their testing are available at: http://alan.cs.gsu.edu/NGS/?q=content/pyrosequencing-error-correction-algorithm PMID:22759430

Efficient error correction for next-generation sequencing of viral amplicons.

PubMed

Skums, Pavel; Dimitrova, Zoya; Campo, David S; Vaughan, Gilberto; Rossi, Livia; Forbi, Joseph C; Yokosawa, Jonny; Zelikovsky, Alex; Khudyakov, Yury

2012-06-25

Next-generation sequencing allows the analysis of an unprecedented number of viral sequence variants from infected patients, presenting a novel opportunity for understanding virus evolution, drug resistance and immune escape. However, sequencing in bulk is error prone. Thus, the generated data require error identification and correction. Most error-correction methods to date are not optimized for amplicon analysis and assume that the error rate is randomly distributed. Recent quality assessment of amplicon sequences obtained using 454-sequencing showed that the error rate is strongly linked to the presence and size of homopolymers, position in the sequence and length of the amplicon. All these parameters are strongly sequence specific and should be incorporated into the calibration of error-correction algorithms designed for amplicon sequencing. In this paper, we present two new efficient error correction algorithms optimized for viral amplicons: (i) k-mer-based error correction (KEC) and (ii) empirical frequency threshold (ET). Both were compared to a previously published clustering algorithm (SHORAH), in order to evaluate their relative performance on 24 experimental datasets obtained by 454-sequencing of amplicons with known sequences. All three algorithms show similar accuracy in finding true haplotypes. However, KEC and ET were significantly more efficient than SHORAH in removing false haplotypes and estimating the frequency of true ones. Both algorithms, KEC and ET, are highly suitable for rapid recovery of error-free haplotypes obtained by 454-sequencing of amplicons from heterogeneous viruses.The implementations of the algorithms and data sets used for their testing are available at: http://alan.cs.gsu.edu/NGS/?q=content/pyrosequencing-error-correction-algorithm.

Rate of false conviction of criminal defendants who are sentenced to death

PubMed Central

Gross, Samuel R.; O’Brien, Barbara; Hu, Chen; Kennedy, Edward H.

2014-01-01

The rate of erroneous conviction of innocent criminal defendants is often described as not merely unknown but unknowable. There is no systematic method to determine the accuracy of a criminal conviction; if there were, these errors would not occur in the first place. As a result, very few false convictions are ever discovered, and those that are discovered are not representative of the group as a whole. In the United States, however, a high proportion of false convictions that do come to light and produce exonerations are concentrated among the tiny minority of cases in which defendants are sentenced to death. This makes it possible to use data on death row exonerations to estimate the overall rate of false conviction among death sentences. The high rate of exoneration among death-sentenced defendants appears to be driven by the threat of execution, but most death-sentenced defendants are removed from death row and resentenced to life imprisonment, after which the likelihood of exoneration drops sharply. We use survival analysis to model this effect, and estimate that if all death-sentenced defendants remained under sentence of death indefinitely, at least 4.1% would be exonerated. We conclude that this is a conservative estimate of the proportion of false conviction among death sentences in the United States. PMID:24778209

RATIR Follow-up of LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golkhou, V. Zach; Butler, Nathaniel R.; Strausbaugh, Robert; Troja, Eleonora; Kutyrev, Alexander; Lee, William H.; Román-Zúñiga, Carlos G.; Watson, Alan M.

2018-04-01

We have recently witnessed the first multi-messenger detection of colliding neutron stars through gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic (EM) waves (GW 170817) thanks to the joint efforts of LIGO/Virgo and Space/Ground-based telescopes. In this paper, we report on the RATIR follow-up observation strategies and show the results for the trigger G194575. This trigger is not of astrophysical interest; however, it is of great interest to the robust design of a follow-up engine to explore large sky-error regions. We discuss the development of an image-subtraction pipeline for the six-color, optical/NIR imaging camera RATIR. Considering a two-band (i and r) campaign in the fall of 2015, we find that the requirement of simultaneous detection in both bands leads to a factor ∼10 reduction in false alarm rate, which can be further reduced using additional bands. We also show that the performance of our proposed algorithm is robust to fluctuating observing conditions, maintaining a low false alarm rate with a modest decrease in system efficiency that can be overcome utilizing repeat visits. Expanding our pipeline to search for either optical or NIR detections (three or more bands), considering separately the optical riZ and NIR YJH bands, should result in a false alarm rate ≈1% and an efficiency ≈90%. RATIR’s simultaneous optical/NIR observations are expected to yield about one candidate transient in the vast 100 deg2 LIGO error region for prioritized follow-up with larger aperture telescopes.

Use of Near-Infrared Spectroscopy and Chemometrics for the Nondestructive Identification of Concealed Damage in Raw Almonds (Prunus dulcis).

PubMed

Rogel-Castillo, Cristian; Boulton, Roger; Opastpongkarn, Arunwong; Huang, Guangwei; Mitchell, Alyson E

2016-07-27

Concealed damage (CD) is defined as a brown discoloration of the kernel interior (nutmeat) that appears only after moderate to high heat treatment (e.g., blanching, drying, roasting, etc.). Raw almonds with CD have no visible defects before heat treatment. Currently, there are no screening methods available for detecting CD in raw almonds. Herein, the feasibility of using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy between 1125 and 2153 nm for the detection of CD in almonds is demonstrated. Almond kernels with CD have less NIR absorbance in the region related with oil, protein, and carbohydrates. With the use of partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and selection of specific wavelengths, three classification models were developed. The calibration models have false-positive and false-negative error rates ranging between 12.4 and 16.1% and between 10.6 and 17.2%, respectively. The percent error rates ranged between 8.2 and 9.2%. Second-derivative preprocessing of the selected wavelength resulted in the most robust predictive model.

Introducing Bayesian thinking to high-throughput screening for false-negative rate estimation.

PubMed

Wei, Xin; Gao, Lin; Zhang, Xiaolei; Qian, Hong; Rowan, Karen; Mark, David; Peng, Zhengwei; Huang, Kuo-Sen

2013-10-01

High-throughput screening (HTS) has been widely used to identify active compounds (hits) that bind to biological targets. Because of cost concerns, the comprehensive screening of millions of compounds is typically conducted without replication. Real hits that fail to exhibit measurable activity in the primary screen due to random experimental errors will be lost as false-negatives. Conceivably, the projected false-negative rate is a parameter that reflects screening quality. Furthermore, it can be used to guide the selection of optimal numbers of compounds for hit confirmation. Therefore, a method that predicts false-negative rates from the primary screening data is extremely valuable. In this article, we describe the implementation of a pilot screen on a representative fraction (1%) of the screening library in order to obtain information about assay variability as well as a preliminary hit activity distribution profile. Using this training data set, we then developed an algorithm based on Bayesian logic and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the number of true active compounds and potential missed hits from the full library screen. We have applied this strategy to five screening projects. The results demonstrate that this method produces useful predictions on the numbers of false negatives.

Follow-up of negative MRI-targeted prostate biopsies: when are we missing cancer?

PubMed

Gold, Samuel A; Hale, Graham R; Bloom, Jonathan B; Smith, Clayton P; Rayn, Kareem N; Valera, Vladimir; Wood, Bradford J; Choyke, Peter L; Turkbey, Baris; Pinto, Peter A

2018-05-21

Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) has improved clinicians' ability to detect clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa). Combining or fusing these images with the real-time imaging of transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) allows urologists to better sample lesions with a targeted biopsy (Tbx) leading to the detection of greater rates of csPCa and decreased rates of low-risk PCa. In this review, we evaluate the technical aspects of the mpMRI-guided Tbx procedure to identify possible sources of error and provide clinical context to a negative Tbx. A literature search was conducted of possible reasons for false-negative TBx. This includes discussion on false-positive mpMRI findings, termed "PCa mimics," that may incorrectly suggest high likelihood of csPCa as well as errors during Tbx resulting in inexact image fusion or biopsy needle placement. Despite the strong negative predictive value associated with Tbx, concerns of missed disease often remain, especially with MR-visible lesions. This raises questions about what to do next after a negative Tbx result. Potential sources of error can arise from each step in the targeted biopsy process ranging from "PCa mimics" or technical errors during mpMRI acquisition to failure to properly register MRI and TRUS images on a fusion biopsy platform to technical or anatomic limits on needle placement accuracy. A better understanding of these potential pitfalls in the mpMRI-guided Tbx procedure will aid interpretation of a negative Tbx, identify areas for improving technical proficiency, and improve both physician understanding of negative Tbx and patient-management options.

The Distinctions of False and Fuzzy Memories.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schooler, Jonathan W.

1998-01-01

Notes that fuzzy-trace theory has been used to understand false memories of children. Demonstrates the irony imbedded in the theory, maintaining that a central implication of fuzzy-trace theory is that some errors characterized as false memories are not really false at all. These errors, when applied to false alarms to related lures, are best…

Maximizing the sensitivity and reliability of peptide identification in large-scale proteomic experiments by harnessing multiple search engines.

PubMed

Yu, Wen; Taylor, J Alex; Davis, Michael T; Bonilla, Leo E; Lee, Kimberly A; Auger, Paul L; Farnsworth, Chris C; Welcher, Andrew A; Patterson, Scott D

2010-03-01

Despite recent advances in qualitative proteomics, the automatic identification of peptides with optimal sensitivity and accuracy remains a difficult goal. To address this deficiency, a novel algorithm, Multiple Search Engines, Normalization and Consensus is described. The method employs six search engines and a re-scoring engine to search MS/MS spectra against protein and decoy sequences. After the peptide hits from each engine are normalized to error rates estimated from the decoy hits, peptide assignments are then deduced using a minimum consensus model. These assignments are produced in a series of progressively relaxed false-discovery rates, thus enabling a comprehensive interpretation of the data set. Additionally, the estimated false-discovery rate was found to have good concordance with the observed false-positive rate calculated from known identities. Benchmarking against standard proteins data sets (ISBv1, sPRG2006) and their published analysis, demonstrated that the Multiple Search Engines, Normalization and Consensus algorithm consistently achieved significantly higher sensitivity in peptide identifications, which led to increased or more robust protein identifications in all data sets compared with prior methods. The sensitivity and the false-positive rate of peptide identification exhibit an inverse-proportional and linear relationship with the number of participating search engines.

Context-sensitive extraction of tree crown objects in urban areas using VHR satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardila, Juan P.; Bijker, Wietske; Tolpekin, Valentyn A.; Stein, Alfred

2012-04-01

Municipalities need accurate and updated inventories of urban vegetation in order to manage green resources and estimate their return on investment in urban forestry activities. Earlier studies have shown that semi-automatic tree detection using remote sensing is a challenging task. This study aims to develop a reproducible geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) methodology to locate and delineate tree crowns in urban areas using high resolution imagery. We propose a GEOBIA approach that considers the spectral, spatial and contextual characteristics of tree objects in the urban space. The study presents classification rules that exploit object features at multiple segmentation scales modifying the labeling and shape of image-objects. The GEOBIA methodology was implemented on QuickBird images acquired over the cities of Enschede and Delft (The Netherlands), resulting in an identification rate of 70% and 82% respectively. False negative errors concentrated on small trees and false positive errors in private gardens. The quality of crown boundaries was acceptable, with an overall delineation error <0.24 outside of gardens and backyards.

Coincidence and covariance data acquisition in photoelectron and -ion spectroscopy. II. Analysis and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikosch, Jochen; Patchkovskii, Serguei

2013-10-01

We use an analytical theory of noisy Poisson processes, developed in the preceding companion publication, to compare coincidence and covariance measurement approaches in photoelectron and -ion spectroscopy. For non-unit detection efficiencies, coincidence data acquisition (DAQ) suffers from false coincidences. The rate of false coincidences grows quadratically with the rate of elementary ionization events. To minimize false coincidences for rare event outcomes, very low event rates may hence be required. Coincidence measurements exhibit high tolerance to noise introduced by unstable experimental conditions. Covariance DAQ on the other hand is free of systematic errors as long as stable experimental conditions are maintained. In the presence of noise, all channels in a covariance measurement become correlated. Under favourable conditions, covariance DAQ may allow orders of magnitude reduction in measurement times. Finally, we use experimental data for strong-field ionization of 1,3-butadiene to illustrate how fluctuations in experimental conditions can contaminate a covariance measurement, and how such contamination can be detected.

Mixed group validation: a method to address the limitations of criterion group validation in research on malingering detection.

PubMed

Frederick, R I

2000-01-01

Mixed group validation (MGV) is offered as an alternative to criterion group validation (CGV) to estimate the true positive and false positive rates of tests and other diagnostic signs. CGV requires perfect confidence about each research participant's status with respect to the presence or absence of pathology. MGV determines diagnostic efficiencies based on group data; knowing an individual's status with respect to pathology is not required. MGV can use relatively weak indicators to validate better diagnostic signs, whereas CGV requires perfect diagnostic signs to avoid error in computing true positive and false positive rates. The process of MGV is explained, and a computer simulation demonstrates the soundness of the procedure. MGV of the Rey 15-Item Memory Test (Rey, 1958) for 723 pre-trial criminal defendants resulted in higher estimates of true positive rates and lower estimates of false positive rates as compared with prior research conducted with CGV. The author demonstrates how MGV addresses all the criticisms Rogers (1997b) outlined for differential prevalence designs in malingering detection research. Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Decision Theoretic Approach to Evaluate Radiation Detection Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nobles, Mallory A.; Sego, Landon H.; Cooley, Scott K.

2013-07-01

There are a variety of sensor systems deployed at U.S. border crossings and ports of entry that scan for illicit nuclear material. In this work, we develop a framework for comparing the performance of detection algorithms that interpret the output of these scans and determine when secondary screening is needed. We optimize each algorithm to minimize its risk, or expected loss. We measure an algorithm’s risk by considering its performance over a sample, the probability distribution of threat sources, and the consequence of detection errors. While it is common to optimize algorithms by fixing one error rate and minimizing another,more » our framework allows one to simultaneously consider multiple types of detection errors. Our framework is flexible and easily adapted to many different assumptions regarding the probability of a vehicle containing illicit material, and the relative consequences of a false positive and false negative errors. Our methods can therefore inform decision makers of the algorithm family and parameter values which best reduce the threat from illicit nuclear material, given their understanding of the environment at any point in time. To illustrate the applicability of our methods, in this paper, we compare the risk from two families of detection algorithms and discuss the policy implications of our results.« less

Influence of ECG measurement accuracy on ECG diagnostic statements.

PubMed

Zywietz, C; Celikag, D; Joseph, G

1996-01-01

Computer analysis of electrocardiograms (ECGs) provides a large amount of ECG measurement data, which may be used for diagnostic classification and storage in ECG databases. Until now, neither error limits for ECG measurements have been specified nor has their influence on diagnostic statements been systematically investigated. An analytical method is presented to estimate the influence of measurement errors on the accuracy of diagnostic ECG statements. Systematic (offset) errors will usually result in an increase of false positive or false negative statements since they cause a shift of the working point on the receiver operating characteristics curve. Measurement error dispersion broadens the distribution function of discriminative measurement parameters and, therefore, usually increases the overlap between discriminative parameters. This results in a flattening of the receiver operating characteristics curve and an increase of false positive and false negative classifications. The method developed has been applied to ECG conduction defect diagnoses by using the proposed International Electrotechnical Commission's interval measurement tolerance limits. These limits appear too large because more than 30% of false positive atrial conduction defect statements and 10-18% of false intraventricular conduction defect statements could be expected due to tolerated measurement errors. To assure long-term usability of ECG measurement databases, it is recommended that systems provide its error tolerance limits obtained on a defined test set.

Associations of hallucination proneness with free-recall intrusions and response bias in a nonclinical sample.

PubMed

Brébion, Gildas; Larøi, Frank; Van der Linden, Martial

2010-10-01

Hallucinations in patients with schizophrenia have been associated with a liberal response bias in signal detection and recognition tasks and with various types of source-memory error. We investigated the associations of hallucination proneness with free-recall intrusions and false recognitions of words in a nonclinical sample. A total of 81 healthy individuals were administered a verbal memory task involving free recall and recognition of one nonorganizable and one semantically organizable list of words. Hallucination proneness was assessed by means of a self-rating scale. Global hallucination proneness was associated with free-recall intrusions in the nonorganizable list and with a response bias reflecting tendency to make false recognitions of nontarget words in both types of list. The verbal hallucination score was associated with more intrusions and with a reduced tendency to make false recognitions of words. The associations between global hallucination proneness and two types of verbal memory error in a nonclinical sample corroborate those observed in patients with schizophrenia and suggest that common cognitive mechanisms underlie hallucinations in psychiatric and nonclinical individuals.

Prospective evaluation of radionuclide scanning in detection of intestinal necrosis in neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haase, G.M.; Sfakianakis, G.N.; Lobe, T.E.

1981-06-01

The ability of external imaging to demonstrate intestinal infarction in neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) was prospectively evaluated. The radiopharmaceutical technetium--99m diphosphonate was injected intravenously and the patients subsequently underwent abdominal scanning. Clinical patient care and interpretation of the images were entirely independent throughout the study. Of 33 studies, 7 were positive, 4 were suspicious, and 22 were negative. One false positive study detected ischemia without transmural infarction. The second false positive scan occurred postoperatively and was due to misinterpretation of the hyperactivity along the surgical incision. None of the suspicious cases had damaged bowel. The two false negative studies clearlymore » failed to demonstrate frank intestinal necrosis. The presence of very small areas of infarction, errors in technical settings, subjective interpretation of scans and delayed clearance of the radionuclide in a critically ill neonate may all limit the accuracy of external abdominal scanning. However, in spite of an error rate of 12%, it is likely that this technique will enhance the present clinical, laboratory, and radiologic parameters of patient management in NEC.« less

Finkelstein's test: a descriptive error that can produce a false positive.

PubMed

Elliott, B G

1992-08-01

Over the last three decades an error in performing Finkelstein's test has crept into the English literature in both text books and journals. This error can produce a false-positive, and if relied upon, a wrong diagnosis can be made, leading to inappropriate surgery.

Using warnings to reduce categorical false memories in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Carmichael, Anna M; Gutchess, Angela H

2016-07-01

Warnings about memory errors can reduce their incidence, although past work has largely focused on associative memory errors. The current study sought to explore whether warnings could be tailored to specifically reduce false recall of categorical information in both younger and older populations. Before encoding word pairs designed to induce categorical false memories, half of the younger and older participants were warned to avoid committing these types of memory errors. Older adults who received a warning committed fewer categorical memory errors, as well as other types of semantic memory errors, than those who did not receive a warning. In contrast, young adults' memory errors did not differ for the warning versus no-warning groups. Our findings provide evidence for the effectiveness of warnings at reducing categorical memory errors in older adults, perhaps by supporting source monitoring, reduction in reliance on gist traces, or through effective metacognitive strategies.

Robust Linear Models for Cis-eQTL Analysis.

PubMed

Rantalainen, Mattias; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Holmes, Christopher C

2015-01-01

Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) analysis enables characterisation of functional genetic variation influencing expression levels of individual genes. In outbread populations, including humans, eQTLs are commonly analysed using the conventional linear model, adjusting for relevant covariates, assuming an allelic dosage model and a Gaussian error term. However, gene expression data generally have noise that induces heavy-tailed errors relative to the Gaussian distribution and often include atypical observations, or outliers. Such departures from modelling assumptions can lead to an increased rate of type II errors (false negatives), and to some extent also type I errors (false positives). Careful model checking can reduce the risk of type-I errors but often not type II errors, since it is generally too time-consuming to carefully check all models with a non-significant effect in large-scale and genome-wide studies. Here we propose the application of a robust linear model for eQTL analysis to reduce adverse effects of deviations from the assumption of Gaussian residuals. We present results from a simulation study as well as results from the analysis of real eQTL data sets. Our findings suggest that in many situations robust models have the potential to provide more reliable eQTL results compared to conventional linear models, particularly in respect to reducing type II errors due to non-Gaussian noise. Post-genomic data, such as that generated in genome-wide eQTL studies, are often noisy and frequently contain atypical observations. Robust statistical models have the potential to provide more reliable results and increased statistical power under non-Gaussian conditions. The results presented here suggest that robust models should be considered routinely alongside other commonly used methodologies for eQTL analysis.

Biases in Planet Occurrence Caused by Unresolved Binaries in Transit Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouma, L. G.; Masuda, Kento; Winn, Joshua N.

2018-06-01

Wide-field surveys for transiting planets, such as the NASA Kepler and TESS missions, are usually conducted without knowing which stars have binary companions. Unresolved and unrecognized binaries give rise to systematic errors in planet occurrence rates, including misclassified planets and mistakes in completeness corrections. The individual errors can have different signs, making it difficult to anticipate the net effect on inferred occurrence rates. Here, we use simplified models of signal-to-noise limited transit surveys to try and clarify the situation. We derive a formula for the apparent occurrence rate density measured by an observer who falsely assumes all stars are single. The formula depends on the binary fraction, the mass function of the secondary stars, and the true occurrence of planets around primaries, secondaries, and single stars. It also takes into account the Malmquist bias by which binaries are over-represented in flux-limited samples. Application of the formula to an idealized Kepler-like survey shows that for planets larger than 2 R ⊕, the net systematic error is of order 5%. In particular, unrecognized binaries are unlikely to be the reason for the apparent discrepancies between hot-Jupiter occurrence rates measured in different surveys. For smaller planets the errors are potentially larger: the occurrence of Earth-sized planets could be overestimated by as much as 50%. We also show that whenever high-resolution imaging reveals a transit host star to be a binary, the planet is usually more likely to orbit the primary star than the secondary star.

Autonomic responses to correct outcomes and interaction errors during single-switch scanning among children with severe spastic quadriplegic cerebral palsy

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The combination of single-switch access technology and scanning is the most promising means of augmentative and alternative communication for many children with severe physical disabilities. However, the physical impairment of the child and the technology’s limited ability to interpret the child’s intentions often lead to false positives and negatives (corresponding to accidental and missed selections, respectively) occurring at rates that frustrate the user and preclude functional communication. Multiple psychophysiological studies have associated cardiac deceleration and increased phasic electrodermal activity with self-realization of errors among able-bodied individuals. Thus, physiological measurements have potential utility at enhancing single-switch access, provided that such prototypical autonomic responses exist in persons with profound disabilities. Methods The present case series investigated the autonomic responses of three pediatric single-switch users with severe spastic quadriplegic cerebral palsy, in the context of a single-switch letter matching activity. Each participant exhibited distinct autonomic responses to activity engagement. Results Our analysis confirmed the presence of the autonomic response pattern of cardiac deceleration and increased phasic electrodermal activity following true positives, false positives and false negatives errors, but not subsequent to true negative outcomes. Conclusions These findings suggest that there may be merit in complementing single-switch input with autonomic measurements to improve augmentative and alternative communications for pediatric access technology users. PMID:24607065

Autonomic responses to correct outcomes and interaction errors during single-switch scanning among children with severe spastic quadriplegic cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Leung, Brian; Chau, Tom

2014-03-08

The combination of single-switch access technology and scanning is the most promising means of augmentative and alternative communication for many children with severe physical disabilities. However, the physical impairment of the child and the technology's limited ability to interpret the child's intentions often lead to false positives and negatives (corresponding to accidental and missed selections, respectively) occurring at rates that frustrate the user and preclude functional communication. Multiple psychophysiological studies have associated cardiac deceleration and increased phasic electrodermal activity with self-realization of errors among able-bodied individuals. Thus, physiological measurements have potential utility at enhancing single-switch access, provided that such prototypical autonomic responses exist in persons with profound disabilities. The present case series investigated the autonomic responses of three pediatric single-switch users with severe spastic quadriplegic cerebral palsy, in the context of a single-switch letter matching activity. Each participant exhibited distinct autonomic responses to activity engagement. Our analysis confirmed the presence of the autonomic response pattern of cardiac deceleration and increased phasic electrodermal activity following true positives, false positives and false negatives errors, but not subsequent to true negative outcomes. These findings suggest that there may be merit in complementing single-switch input with autonomic measurements to improve augmentative and alternative communications for pediatric access technology users.

False Operation of Static Random Access Memory Cells under Alternating Current Power Supply Voltage Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, Takuya; Takata, Hidehiro; Nii, Koji; Nagata, Makoto

2013-04-01

Static random access memory (SRAM) cores exhibit susceptibility against power supply voltage variation. False operation is investigated among SRAM cells under sinusoidal voltage variation on power lines introduced by direct RF power injection. A standard SRAM core of 16 kbyte in a 90 nm 1.5 V technology is diagnosed with built-in self test and on-die noise monitor techniques. The sensitivity of bit error rate is shown to be high against the frequency of injected voltage variation, while it is not greatly influenced by the difference in frequency and phase against SRAM clocking. It is also observed that the distribution of false bits is substantially random in a cell array.

Between-Batch Pharmacokinetic Variability Inflates Type I Error Rate in Conventional Bioequivalence Trials: A Randomized Advair Diskus Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Burmeister Getz, E; Carroll, K J; Mielke, J; Benet, L Z; Jones, B

2017-03-01

We previously demonstrated pharmacokinetic differences among manufacturing batches of a US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved dry powder inhalation product (Advair Diskus 100/50) large enough to establish between-batch bio-inequivalence. Here, we provide independent confirmation of pharmacokinetic bio-inequivalence among Advair Diskus 100/50 batches, and quantify residual and between-batch variance component magnitudes. These variance estimates are used to consider the type I error rate of the FDA's current two-way crossover design recommendation. When between-batch pharmacokinetic variability is substantial, the conventional two-way crossover design cannot accomplish the objectives of FDA's statistical bioequivalence test (i.e., cannot accurately estimate the test/reference ratio and associated confidence interval). The two-way crossover, which ignores between-batch pharmacokinetic variability, yields an artificially narrow confidence interval on the product comparison. The unavoidable consequence is type I error rate inflation, to ∼25%, when between-batch pharmacokinetic variability is nonzero. This risk of a false bioequivalence conclusion is substantially higher than asserted by regulators as acceptable consumer risk (5%). © 2016 The Authors Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC/SWRC from 2010-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jian, L. K.

2017-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements near Earth, STEREO-A and STEREO-B for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B and we observed an arrival (hit), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

A soft kinetic data structure for lesion border detection.

PubMed

Kockara, Sinan; Mete, Mutlu; Yip, Vincent; Lee, Brendan; Aydin, Kemal

2010-06-15

The medical imaging and image processing techniques, ranging from microscopic to macroscopic, has become one of the main components of diagnostic procedures to assist dermatologists in their medical decision-making processes. Computer-aided segmentation and border detection on dermoscopic images is one of the core components of diagnostic procedures and therapeutic interventions for skin cancer. Automated assessment tools for dermoscopic images have become an important research field mainly because of inter- and intra-observer variations in human interpretations. In this study, a novel approach-graph spanner-for automatic border detection in dermoscopic images is proposed. In this approach, a proximity graph representation of dermoscopic images in order to detect regions and borders in skin lesion is presented. Graph spanner approach is examined on a set of 100 dermoscopic images whose manually drawn borders by a dermatologist are used as the ground truth. Error rates, false positives and false negatives along with true positives and true negatives are quantified by digitally comparing results with manually determined borders from a dermatologist. The results show that the highest precision and recall rates obtained to determine lesion boundaries are 100%. However, accuracy of assessment averages out at 97.72% and borders errors' mean is 2.28% for whole dataset.

Analysis of false results in a series of 835 fine needle aspirates of breast lesions.

PubMed

Willis, S L; Ramzy, I

1995-01-01

To analyze cases of false diagnoses from a large series to help increase the accuracy of fine needle aspiration of palpable breast lesions. The results of FNA of 835 palpable breast lesions were analyzed to determine the reasons for false positive, false negative and false suspicious diagnoses. Of the 835 aspirates, 174 were reported as positive, 549 as negative and 66 as suspicious or atypical but not diagnostic of malignancy. Forty-six cases were considered unsatisfactory. Tissue was available for comparison in 286 cases. The cytologic diagnoses in these cases were reported as follows: positive, 125 (43.7%); suspicious, 33 (11.5%); atypical, 18 (6.2%); negative, 92 (32%); and unsatisfactory, 18 (6.2%). There was one false positive diagnosis, yielding a false positive rate of 0.8%. This lesion was a case of fibrocystic change with hyperplasia, focal fat necrosis and reparative atypia. There were 14 false negative cases, resulting in a false negative rate of 13.2%. Nearly all these cases were sampling errors and included infiltrating ductal carcinomas (9), ductal carcinomas in situ (2), infiltrating lobular carcinomas (2) and tubular carcinoma (1). Most of the suspicious and atypical lesions proved to be carcinomas (35/50). The remainder were fibroadenomas (6), fibrocystic change (4), gynecomastia (2), adenosis (2) and granulomatous mastitis (1). A positive diagnosis of malignancy by FNA is reliable in establishing the diagnosis and planning the treatment of breast cancer. The false-positive rate is very low, with only a single case reported in 835 aspirates. Most false negatives are due to sampling and not to interpretive difficulties. The category "suspicious but not diagnostic of malignancy" serves a useful purpose in management of patients with breast lumps.

Medical Error Avoidance in Intraoperative Neurophysiological Monitoring: The Communication Imperative.

PubMed

Skinner, Stan; Holdefer, Robert; McAuliffe, John J; Sala, Francesco

2017-11-01

Error avoidance in medicine follows similar rules that apply within the design and operation of other complex systems. The error-reduction concepts that best fit the conduct of testing during intraoperative neuromonitoring are forgiving design (reversibility of signal loss to avoid/prevent injury) and system redundancy (reduction of false reports by the multiplication of the error rate of tests independently assessing the same structure). However, error reduction in intraoperative neuromonitoring is complicated by the dichotomous roles (and biases) of the neurophysiologist (test recording and interpretation) and surgeon (intervention). This "interventional cascade" can be given as follows: test → interpretation → communication → intervention → outcome. Observational and controlled trials within operating rooms demonstrate that optimized communication, collaboration, and situational awareness result in fewer errors. Well-functioning operating room collaboration depends on familiarity and trust among colleagues. Checklists represent one method to initially enhance communication and avoid obvious errors. All intraoperative neuromonitoring supervisors should strive to use sufficient means to secure situational awareness and trusted communication/collaboration. Face-to-face audiovisual teleconnections may help repair deficiencies when a particular practice model disallows personal operating room availability. All supervising intraoperative neurophysiologists need to reject an insular or deferential or distant mindset.

Cognitive mechanisms of false facial recognition in older adults.

PubMed

Edmonds, Emily C; Glisky, Elizabeth L; Bartlett, James C; Rapcsak, Steven Z

2012-03-01

Older adults show elevated false alarm rates on recognition memory tests involving faces in comparison to younger adults. It has been proposed that this age-related increase in false facial recognition reflects a deficit in recollection and a corresponding increase in the use of familiarity when making memory decisions. To test this hypothesis, we examined the performance of 40 older adults and 40 younger adults on a face recognition memory paradigm involving three different types of lures with varying levels of familiarity. A robust age effect was found, with older adults demonstrating a markedly heightened false alarm rate in comparison to younger adults for "familiarized lures" that were exact repetitions of faces encountered earlier in the experiment, but outside the study list, and therefore required accurate recollection of contextual information to reject. By contrast, there were no age differences in false alarms to "conjunction lures" that recombined parts of study list faces, or to entirely new faces. Overall, the pattern of false recognition errors observed in older adults was consistent with excessive reliance on a familiarity-based response strategy. Specifically, in the absence of recollection older adults appeared to base their memory decisions on item familiarity, as evidenced by a linear increase in false alarm rates with increasing familiarity of the lures. These findings support the notion that automatic memory processes such as familiarity remain invariant with age, while more controlled memory processes such as recollection show age-related decline.

Implementation of a high-speed face recognition system that uses an optical parallel correlator.

PubMed

Watanabe, Eriko; Kodate, Kashiko

2005-02-10

We implement a fully automatic fast face recognition system by using a 1000 frame/s optical parallel correlator designed and assembled by us. The operational speed for the 1:N (i.e., matching one image against N, where N refers to the number of images in the database) identification experiment (4000 face images) amounts to less than 1.5 s, including the preprocessing and postprocessing times. The binary real-only matched filter is devised for the sake of face recognition, and the system is optimized by the false-rejection rate (FRR) and the false-acceptance rate (FAR), according to 300 samples selected by the biometrics guideline. From trial 1:N identification experiments with the optical parallel correlator, we acquired low error rates of 2.6% FRR and 1.3% FAR. Facial images of people wearing thin glasses or heavy makeup that rendered identification difficult were identified with this system.

A statistical investigation into the stability of iris recognition in diverse population sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, John J.; Etter, Delores M.

2014-05-01

Iris recognition is increasingly being deployed on population wide scales for important applications such as border security, social service administration, criminal identification and general population management. The error rates for this incredibly accurate form of biometric identification are established using well known, laboratory quality datasets. However, it is has long been acknowledged in biometric theory that not all individuals have the same likelihood of being correctly serviced by a biometric system. Typically, techniques for identifying clients that are likely to experience a false non-match or a false match error are carried out on a per-subject basis. This research makes the novel hypothesis that certain ethnical denominations are more or less likely to experience a biometric error. Through established statistical techniques, we demonstrate this hypothesis to be true and document the notable effect that the ethnicity of the client has on iris similarity scores. Understanding the expected impact of ethnical diversity on iris recognition accuracy is crucial to the future success of this technology as it is deployed in areas where the target population consists of clientele from a range of geographic backgrounds, such as border crossings and immigration check points.

To Control False Positives in Gene-Gene Interaction Analysis: Two Novel Conditional Entropy-Based Approaches

PubMed Central

Lin, Meihua; Li, Haoli; Zhao, Xiaolei; Qin, Jiheng

2013-01-01

Genome-wide analysis of gene-gene interactions has been recognized as a powerful avenue to identify the missing genetic components that can not be detected by using current single-point association analysis. Recently, several model-free methods (e.g. the commonly used information based metrics and several logistic regression-based metrics) were developed for detecting non-linear dependence between genetic loci, but they are potentially at the risk of inflated false positive error, in particular when the main effects at one or both loci are salient. In this study, we proposed two conditional entropy-based metrics to challenge this limitation. Extensive simulations demonstrated that the two proposed metrics, provided the disease is rare, could maintain consistently correct false positive rate. In the scenarios for a common disease, our proposed metrics achieved better or comparable control of false positive error, compared to four previously proposed model-free metrics. In terms of power, our methods outperformed several competing metrics in a range of common disease models. Furthermore, in real data analyses, both metrics succeeded in detecting interactions and were competitive with the originally reported results or the logistic regression approaches. In conclusion, the proposed conditional entropy-based metrics are promising as alternatives to current model-based approaches for detecting genuine epistatic effects. PMID:24339984

An improved PCA method with application to boiler leak detection.

PubMed

Sun, Xi; Marquez, Horacio J; Chen, Tongwen; Riaz, Muhammad

2005-07-01

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a popular fault detection technique. It has been widely used in process industries, especially in the chemical industry. In industrial applications, achieving a sensitive system capable of detecting incipient faults, which maintains the false alarm rate to a minimum, is a crucial issue. Although a lot of research has been focused on these issues for PCA-based fault detection and diagnosis methods, sensitivity of the fault detection scheme versus false alarm rate continues to be an important issue. In this paper, an improved PCA method is proposed to address this problem. In this method, a new data preprocessing scheme and a new fault detection scheme designed for Hotelling's T2 as well as the squared prediction error are developed. A dynamic PCA model is also developed for boiler leak detection. This new method is applied to boiler water/steam leak detection with real data from Syncrude Canada's utility plant in Fort McMurray, Canada. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively reduce false alarm rate, provide effective and correct leak alarms, and give early warning to operators.

Cognitive errors: thinking clearly when it could be child maltreatment.

PubMed

Laskey, Antoinette L

2014-10-01

Cognitive errors have been studied in a broad array of fields, including medicine. The more that is understood about how the human mind processes complex information, the more it becomes clear that certain situations are particularly susceptible to less than optimal outcomes because of these errors. This article explores how some of the known cognitive errors may influence the diagnosis of child abuse, resulting in both false-negative and false-positive diagnoses. Suggested remedies for these errors are offered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact and quantification of the sources of error in DNA pooling designs.

PubMed

Jawaid, A; Sham, P

2009-01-01

The analysis of genome wide variation offers the possibility of unravelling the genes involved in the pathogenesis of disease. Genome wide association studies are also particularly useful for identifying and validating targets for therapeutic intervention as well as for detecting markers for drug efficacy and side effects. The cost of such large-scale genetic association studies may be reduced substantially by the analysis of pooled DNA from multiple individuals. However, experimental errors inherent in pooling studies lead to a potential increase in the false positive rate and a loss in power compared to individual genotyping. Here we quantify various sources of experimental error using empirical data from typical pooling experiments and corresponding individual genotyping counts using two statistical methods. We provide analytical formulas for calculating these different errors in the absence of complete information, such as replicate pool formation, and for adjusting for the errors in the statistical analysis. We demonstrate that DNA pooling has the potential of estimating allele frequencies accurately, and adjusting the pooled allele frequency estimates for differential allelic amplification considerably improves accuracy. Estimates of the components of error show that differential allelic amplification is the most important contributor to the error variance in absolute allele frequency estimation, followed by allele frequency measurement and pool formation errors. Our results emphasise the importance of minimising experimental errors and obtaining correct error estimates in genetic association studies.

Error rates in forensic DNA analysis: definition, numbers, impact and communication.

PubMed

Kloosterman, Ate; Sjerps, Marjan; Quak, Astrid

2014-09-01

Forensic DNA casework is currently regarded as one of the most important types of forensic evidence, and important decisions in intelligence and justice are based on it. However, errors occasionally occur and may have very serious consequences. In other domains, error rates have been defined and published. The forensic domain is lagging behind concerning this transparency for various reasons. In this paper we provide definitions and observed frequencies for different types of errors at the Human Biological Traces Department of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) over the years 2008-2012. Furthermore, we assess their actual and potential impact and describe how the NFI deals with the communication of these numbers to the legal justice system. We conclude that the observed relative frequency of quality failures is comparable to studies from clinical laboratories and genetic testing centres. Furthermore, this frequency is constant over the five-year study period. The most common causes of failures related to the laboratory process were contamination and human error. Most human errors could be corrected, whereas gross contamination in crime samples often resulted in irreversible consequences. Hence this type of contamination is identified as the most significant source of error. Of the known contamination incidents, most were detected by the NFI quality control system before the report was issued to the authorities, and thus did not lead to flawed decisions like false convictions. However in a very limited number of cases crucial errors were detected after the report was issued, sometimes with severe consequences. Many of these errors were made in the post-analytical phase. The error rates reported in this paper are useful for quality improvement and benchmarking, and contribute to an open research culture that promotes public trust. However, they are irrelevant in the context of a particular case. Here case-specific probabilities of undetected errors are needed. These should be reported, separately from the match probability, when requested by the court or when there are internal or external indications for error. It should also be made clear that there are various other issues to consider, like DNA transfer. Forensic statistical models, in particular Bayesian networks, may be useful to take the various uncertainties into account and demonstrate their effects on the evidential value of the forensic DNA results. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why We Should Not Be Indifferent to Specification Choices for Difference-in-Differences.

PubMed

Ryan, Andrew M; Burgess, James F; Dimick, Justin B

2015-08-01

To evaluate the effects of specification choices on the accuracy of estimates in difference-in-differences (DID) models. Process-of-care quality data from Hospital Compare between 2003 and 2009. We performed a Monte Carlo simulation experiment to estimate the effect of an imaginary policy on quality. The experiment was performed for three different scenarios in which the probability of treatment was (1) unrelated to pre-intervention performance; (2) positively correlated with pre-intervention levels of performance; and (3) positively correlated with pre-intervention trends in performance. We estimated alternative DID models that varied with respect to the choice of data intervals, the comparison group, and the method of obtaining inference. We assessed estimator bias as the mean absolute deviation between estimated program effects and their true value. We evaluated the accuracy of inferences through statistical power and rates of false rejection of the null hypothesis. Performance of alternative specifications varied dramatically when the probability of treatment was correlated with pre-intervention levels or trends. In these cases, propensity score matching resulted in much more accurate point estimates. The use of permutation tests resulted in lower false rejection rates for the highly biased estimators, but the use of clustered standard errors resulted in slightly lower false rejection rates for the matching estimators. When treatment and comparison groups differed on pre-intervention levels or trends, our results supported specifications for DID models that include matching for more accurate point estimates and models using clustered standard errors or permutation tests for better inference. Based on our findings, we propose a checklist for DID analysis. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Evaluation of logistic regression models and effect of covariates for case-control study in RNA-Seq analysis.

PubMed

Choi, Seung Hoan; Labadorf, Adam T; Myers, Richard H; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Dupuis, Josée; DeStefano, Anita L

2017-02-06

Next generation sequencing provides a count of RNA molecules in the form of short reads, yielding discrete, often highly non-normally distributed gene expression measurements. Although Negative Binomial (NB) regression has been generally accepted in the analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data, its appropriateness has not been exhaustively evaluated. We explore logistic regression as an alternative method for RNA-Seq studies designed to compare cases and controls, where disease status is modeled as a function of RNA-Seq reads using simulated and Huntington disease data. We evaluate the effect of adjusting for covariates that have an unknown relationship with gene expression. Finally, we incorporate the data adaptive method in order to compare false positive rates. When the sample size is small or the expression levels of a gene are highly dispersed, the NB regression shows inflated Type-I error rates but the Classical logistic and Bayes logistic (BL) regressions are conservative. Firth's logistic (FL) regression performs well or is slightly conservative. Large sample size and low dispersion generally make Type-I error rates of all methods close to nominal alpha levels of 0.05 and 0.01. However, Type-I error rates are controlled after applying the data adaptive method. The NB, BL, and FL regressions gain increased power with large sample size, large log2 fold-change, and low dispersion. The FL regression has comparable power to NB regression. We conclude that implementing the data adaptive method appropriately controls Type-I error rates in RNA-Seq analysis. Firth's logistic regression provides a concise statistical inference process and reduces spurious associations from inaccurately estimated dispersion parameters in the negative binomial framework.

The probability of false positives in zero-dimensional analyses of one-dimensional kinematic, force and EMG trajectories.

PubMed

Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

2016-06-14

A false positive is the mistake of inferring an effect when none exists, and although α controls the false positive (Type I error) rate in classical hypothesis testing, a given α value is accurate only if the underlying model of randomness appropriately reflects experimentally observed variance. Hypotheses pertaining to one-dimensional (1D) (e.g. time-varying) biomechanical trajectories are most often tested using a traditional zero-dimensional (0D) Gaussian model of randomness, but variance in these datasets is clearly 1D. The purpose of this study was to determine the likelihood that analyzing smooth 1D data with a 0D model of variance will produce false positives. We first used random field theory (RFT) to predict the probability of false positives in 0D analyses. We then validated RFT predictions via numerical simulations of smooth Gaussian 1D trajectories. Results showed that, across a range of public kinematic, force/moment and EMG datasets, the median false positive rate was 0.382 and not the assumed α=0.05, even for a simple two-sample t test involving N=10 trajectories per group. The median false positive rate for experiments involving three-component vector trajectories was p=0.764. This rate increased to p=0.945 for two three-component vector trajectories, and to p=0.999 for six three-component vectors. This implies that experiments involving vector trajectories have a high probability of yielding 0D statistical significance when there is, in fact, no 1D effect. Either (a) explicit a priori identification of 0D variables or (b) adoption of 1D methods can more tightly control α. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Specificity and false positive rates of the Test of Memory Malingering, Rey 15-item Test, and Rey Word Recognition Test among forensic inpatients with intellectual disabilities.

PubMed

Love, Christopher M; Glassmire, David M; Zanolini, Shanna Jordan; Wolf, Amanda

2014-10-01

This study evaluated the specificity and false positive (FP) rates of the Rey 15-Item Test (FIT), Word Recognition Test (WRT), and Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) in a sample of 21 forensic inpatients with mild intellectual disability (ID). The FIT demonstrated an FP rate of 23.8% with the standard quantitative cutoff score. Certain qualitative error types on the FIT showed promise and had low FP rates. The WRT obtained an FP rate of 0.0% with previously reported cutoff scores. Finally, the TOMM demonstrated low FP rates of 4.8% and 0.0% on Trial 2 and the Retention Trial, respectively, when applying the standard cutoff score. FP rates are reported for a range of cutoff scores and compared with published research on individuals diagnosed with ID. Results indicated that although the quantitative variables on the FIT had unacceptably high FP rates, the TOMM and WRT had low FP rates, increasing the confidence clinicians can place in scores reflecting poor effort on these measures during ID evaluations. © The Author(s) 2014.

Reducing false-positive incidental findings with ensemble genotyping and logistic regression based variant filtering methods.

PubMed

Hwang, Kyu-Baek; Lee, In-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Hambuch, Tina; Choe, Yongjoon; Kim, MinHyeok; Lee, Kyungjoon; Song, Taemin; Neu, Matthew B; Gupta, Neha; Kohane, Isaac S; Green, Robert C; Kong, Sek Won

2014-08-01

As whole genome sequencing (WGS) uncovers variants associated with rare and common diseases, an immediate challenge is to minimize false-positive findings due to sequencing and variant calling errors. False positives can be reduced by combining results from orthogonal sequencing methods, but costly. Here, we present variant filtering approaches using logistic regression (LR) and ensemble genotyping to minimize false positives without sacrificing sensitivity. We evaluated the methods using paired WGS datasets of an extended family prepared using two sequencing platforms and a validated set of variants in NA12878. Using LR or ensemble genotyping based filtering, false-negative rates were significantly reduced by 1.1- to 17.8-fold at the same levels of false discovery rates (5.4% for heterozygous and 4.5% for homozygous single nucleotide variants (SNVs); 30.0% for heterozygous and 18.7% for homozygous insertions; 25.2% for heterozygous and 16.6% for homozygous deletions) compared to the filtering based on genotype quality scores. Moreover, ensemble genotyping excluded > 98% (105,080 of 107,167) of false positives while retaining > 95% (897 of 937) of true positives in de novo mutation (DNM) discovery in NA12878, and performed better than a consensus method using two sequencing platforms. Our proposed methods were effective in prioritizing phenotype-associated variants, and an ensemble genotyping would be essential to minimize false-positive DNM candidates. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Reducing false positive incidental findings with ensemble genotyping and logistic regression-based variant filtering methods

PubMed Central

Hwang, Kyu-Baek; Lee, In-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Hambuch, Tina; Choi, Yongjoon; Kim, MinHyeok; Lee, Kyungjoon; Song, Taemin; Neu, Matthew B.; Gupta, Neha; Kohane, Isaac S.; Green, Robert C.; Kong, Sek Won

2014-01-01

As whole genome sequencing (WGS) uncovers variants associated with rare and common diseases, an immediate challenge is to minimize false positive findings due to sequencing and variant calling errors. False positives can be reduced by combining results from orthogonal sequencing methods, but costly. Here we present variant filtering approaches using logistic regression (LR) and ensemble genotyping to minimize false positives without sacrificing sensitivity. We evaluated the methods using paired WGS datasets of an extended family prepared using two sequencing platforms and a validated set of variants in NA12878. Using LR or ensemble genotyping based filtering, false negative rates were significantly reduced by 1.1- to 17.8-fold at the same levels of false discovery rates (5.4% for heterozygous and 4.5% for homozygous SNVs; 30.0% for heterozygous and 18.7% for homozygous insertions; 25.2% for heterozygous and 16.6% for homozygous deletions) compared to the filtering based on genotype quality scores. Moreover, ensemble genotyping excluded > 98% (105,080 of 107,167) of false positives while retaining > 95% (897 of 937) of true positives in de novo mutation (DNM) discovery, and performed better than a consensus method using two sequencing platforms. Our proposed methods were effective in prioritizing phenotype-associated variants, and ensemble genotyping would be essential to minimize false positive DNM candidates. PMID:24829188

Adaptive Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Climbing Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Charles Alexander; Thipphavong, David P.; Erzberger, Heinz

2012-01-01

Aircraft climb trajectories are difficult to predict, and large errors in these predictions reduce the potential operational benefits of some advanced features for NextGen. The algorithm described in this paper improves climb trajectory prediction accuracy by adjusting trajectory predictions based on observed track data. It utilizes rate-of-climb and airspeed measurements derived from position data to dynamically adjust the aircraft weight modeled for trajectory predictions. In simulations with weight uncertainty, the algorithm is able to adapt to within 3 percent of the actual gross weight within two minutes of the initial adaptation. The root-mean-square of altitude errors for five-minute predictions was reduced by 73 percent. Conflict detection performance also improved, with a 15 percent reduction in missed alerts and a 10 percent reduction in false alerts. In a simulation with climb speed capture intent and weight uncertainty, the algorithm improved climb trajectory prediction accuracy by up to 30 percent and conflict detection performance, reducing missed and false alerts by up to 10 percent.

Recognizing the Presidents: Was Alexander Hamilton President?

PubMed

Roediger, Henry L; DeSoto, K Andrew

2016-05-01

Studies over the past 40 years have shown that Americans can recall about half the U.S. presidents. Do people know the presidents even though they are unable to access them for recall? We investigated this question using the powerful cues of a recognition test. Specifically, we tested the ability of 326 online subjects to recognize U.S. presidents when presented with their full names among various types of lures. The hit rate for presidential recognition was .88, well above the proportion produced in free recall but far from perfect. Presidents Franklin Pierce and Chester Arthur were recognized less than 60% of the time. Interestingly, four nonpresidents were falsely recognized at relatively high rates, and Alexander Hamilton was more frequently identified as president than were several actual presidents. Even on a recognition test, knowledge of American presidents is imperfect and prone to error. The false alarm data support the theory that false fame can arise from contextual familiarity. © The Author(s) 2016.

False recognition of facial expressions of emotion: causes and implications.

PubMed

Fernández-Dols, José-Miguel; Carrera, Pilar; Barchard, Kimberly A; Gacitua, Marta

2008-08-01

This article examines the importance of semantic processes in the recognition of emotional expressions, through a series of three studies on false recognition. The first study found a high frequency of false recognition of prototypical expressions of emotion when participants viewed slides and video clips of nonprototypical fearful and happy expressions. The second study tested whether semantic processes caused false recognition. The authors found that participants made significantly higher error rates when asked to detect expressions that corresponded to semantic labels than when asked to detect visual stimuli. Finally, given that previous research reported that false memories are less prevalent in younger children, the third study tested whether false recognition of prototypical expressions increased with age. The authors found that 67% of eight- to nine-year-old children reported nonpresent prototypical expressions of fear in a fearful context, but only 40% of 6- to 7-year-old children did so. Taken together, these three studies demonstrate the importance of semantic processes in the detection and categorization of prototypical emotional expressions.

The ADRA2B gene in the production of false memories for affective information in healthy female volunteers.

PubMed

Fairfield, Beth; Mammarella, Nicola; Di Domenico, Alberto; D'Aurora, Marco; Stuppia, Liborio; Gatta, Valentina

2017-08-30

False memories are common memory distortions in everyday life and seem to increase with affectively connoted complex information. In line with recent studies showing a significant interaction between the noradrenergic system and emotional memory, we investigated whether healthy volunteer carriers of the deletion variant of the ADRA2B gene that codes for the α2b-adrenergic receptor are more prone to false memories than non-carriers. In this study, we collected genotype data from 212 healthy female volunteers; 91 ADRA2B carriers and 121 non-carriers. To assess gene effects on false memories for affective information, factorial mixed model analysis of variances (ANOVAs) were conducted with genotype as the between-subjects factor and type of memory error as the within-subjects factor. We found that although carriers and non-carriers made comparable numbers of false memory errors, they showed differences in the direction of valence biases, especially for inferential causal errors. Specifically, carriers produced fewer causal false memory errors for scripts with a negative outcome, whereas non-carriers showed a more general emotional effect and made fewer causal errors with both positive and negative outcomes. These findings suggest that putatively higher levels of noradrenaline in deletion carriers may enhance short-term consolidation of negative information and lead to fewer memory distortions when facing negative events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An improved procedure for the validation of satellite-based precipitation estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Ling; Tian, Yudong; Yan, Fang; Habib, Emad

2015-09-01

The objective of this study is to propose and test a new procedure to improve the validation of remote-sensing, high-resolution precipitation estimates. Our recent studies show that many conventional validation measures do not accurately capture the unique error characteristics in precipitation estimates to better inform both data producers and users. The proposed new validation procedure has two steps: 1) an error decomposition approach to separate the total retrieval error into three independent components: hit error, false precipitation and missed precipitation; and 2) the hit error is further analyzed based on a multiplicative error model. In the multiplicative error model, the error features are captured by three model parameters. In this way, the multiplicative error model separates systematic and random errors, leading to more accurate quantification of the uncertainties. The proposed procedure is used to quantitatively evaluate the recent two versions (Version 6 and 7) of TRMM's Multi-sensor Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time and research product suite (3B42 and 3B42RT) for seven years (2005-2011) over the continental United States (CONUS). The gauge-based National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) near-real-time daily precipitation analysis is used as the reference. In addition, the radar-based NCEP Stage IV precipitation data are also model-fitted to verify the effectiveness of the multiplicative error model. The results show that winter total bias is dominated by the missed precipitation over the west coastal areas and the Rocky Mountains, and the false precipitation over large areas in Midwest. The summer total bias is largely coming from the hit bias in Central US. Meanwhile, the new version (V7) tends to produce more rainfall in the higher rain rates, which moderates the significant underestimation exhibited in the previous V6 products. Moreover, the error analysis from the multiplicative error model provides a clear and concise picture of the systematic and random errors, with both versions of 3B42RT have higher errors in varying degrees than their research (post-real-time) counterparts. The new V7 algorithm shows obvious improvements in reducing random errors in both winter and summer seasons, compared to its predecessors V6. Stage IV, as expected, surpasses the satellite-based datasets in all the metrics over CONUS. Based on the results, we recommend the new procedure be adopted for routine validation of satellite-based precipitation datasets, and we expect the procedure will work effectively for higher resolution data to be produced in the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) era.

ERASE-Seq: Leveraging replicate measurements to enhance ultralow frequency variant detection in NGS data

PubMed Central

Kamps-Hughes, Nick; McUsic, Andrew; Kurihara, Laurie; Harkins, Timothy T.; Pal, Prithwish; Ray, Claire

2018-01-01

The accurate detection of ultralow allele frequency variants in DNA samples is of interest in both research and medical settings, particularly in liquid biopsies where cancer mutational status is monitored from circulating DNA. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies employing molecular barcoding have shown promise but significant sensitivity and specificity improvements are still needed to detect mutations in a majority of patients before the metastatic stage. To address this we present analytical validation data for ERASE-Seq (Elimination of Recurrent Artifacts and Stochastic Errors), a method for accurate and sensitive detection of ultralow frequency DNA variants in NGS data. ERASE-Seq differs from previous methods by creating a robust statistical framework to utilize technical replicates in conjunction with background error modeling, providing a 10 to 100-fold reduction in false positive rates compared to published molecular barcoding methods. ERASE-Seq was tested using spiked human DNA mixtures with clinically realistic DNA input quantities to detect SNVs and indels between 0.05% and 1% allele frequency, the range commonly found in liquid biopsy samples. Variants were detected with greater than 90% sensitivity and a false positive rate below 0.1 calls per 10,000 possible variants. The approach represents a significant performance improvement compared to molecular barcoding methods and does not require changing molecular reagents. PMID:29630678

Toward noncooperative iris recognition: a classification approach using multiple signatures.

PubMed

Proença, Hugo; Alexandre, Luís A

2007-04-01

This paper focuses on noncooperative iris recognition, i.e., the capture of iris images at large distances, under less controlled lighting conditions, and without active participation of the subjects. This increases the probability of capturing very heterogeneous images (regarding focus, contrast, or brightness) and with several noise factors (iris obstructions and reflections). Current iris recognition systems are unable to deal with noisy data and substantially increase their error rates, especially the false rejections, in these conditions. We propose an iris classification method that divides the segmented and normalized iris image into six regions, makes an independent feature extraction and comparison for each region, and combines each of the dissimilarity values through a classification rule. Experiments show a substantial decrease, higher than 40 percent, of the false rejection rates in the recognition of noisy iris images.

Repetition increases false recollection in older people.

PubMed

Pitarque, Alfonso; Sales, Alicia; Meléndez, Juan Carlos; Algarabel, Salvador

2015-02-01

Aging is accompanied by an increase in false alarms on recognition tasks, and these false alarms increase with repetition in older people (but not in young people). Traditionally, this increase was thought to be due to a greater use of familiarity in older people, but it was recently pointed out that false alarms also have a clear recollection component in these people. The main objective of our study is to analyze whether the expected increase in the rate of false alarms in older people due to stimulus repetition is produced by an inadequate use of familiarity, recollection, or both processes. To do so, we carried out an associative recognition experiment using pairs of words and pairs of images (faces associated with everyday contexts), in which we analyzed whether the repetition of some of the pairs increases the rate of false alarms in older people (compared to what was found in a sample of young people), and whether this increase is due to familiarity or recollection (using a remember-know paradigm). Our results show that the increase in false alarms in older people due to repetition is produced by false recollection, calling into question both dual and single-process models of recognition. Also, older people falsely recollect details of never studied stimuli, a clear case of perceptual illusions. These results are better explained in terms of source-monitoring errors, mediated by people's retrieval expectations. © 2014 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

POWER-ENHANCED MULTIPLE DECISION FUNCTIONS CONTROLLING FAMILY-WISE ERROR AND FALSE DISCOVERY RATES.

PubMed

Peña, Edsel A; Habiger, Joshua D; Wu, Wensong

2011-02-01

Improved procedures, in terms of smaller missed discovery rates (MDR), for performing multiple hypotheses testing with weak and strong control of the family-wise error rate (FWER) or the false discovery rate (FDR) are developed and studied. The improvement over existing procedures such as the Šidák procedure for FWER control and the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure for FDR control is achieved by exploiting possible differences in the powers of the individual tests. Results signal the need to take into account the powers of the individual tests and to have multiple hypotheses decision functions which are not limited to simply using the individual p -values, as is the case, for example, with the Šidák, Bonferroni, or BH procedures. They also enhance understanding of the role of the powers of individual tests, or more precisely the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) functions of decision processes, in the search for better multiple hypotheses testing procedures. A decision-theoretic framework is utilized, and through auxiliary randomizers the procedures could be used with discrete or mixed-type data or with rank-based nonparametric tests. This is in contrast to existing p -value based procedures whose theoretical validity is contingent on each of these p -value statistics being stochastically equal to or greater than a standard uniform variable under the null hypothesis. Proposed procedures are relevant in the analysis of high-dimensional "large M , small n " data sets arising in the natural, physical, medical, economic and social sciences, whose generation and creation is accelerated by advances in high-throughput technology, notably, but not limited to, microarray technology.

Bias correction for selecting the minimal-error classifier from many machine learning models.

PubMed

Ding, Ying; Tang, Shaowu; Liao, Serena G; Jia, Jia; Oesterreich, Steffi; Lin, Yan; Tseng, George C

2014-11-15

Supervised machine learning is commonly applied in genomic research to construct a classifier from the training data that is generalizable to predict independent testing data. When test datasets are not available, cross-validation is commonly used to estimate the error rate. Many machine learning methods are available, and it is well known that no universally best method exists in general. It has been a common practice to apply many machine learning methods and report the method that produces the smallest cross-validation error rate. Theoretically, such a procedure produces a selection bias. Consequently, many clinical studies with moderate sample sizes (e.g. n = 30-60) risk reporting a falsely small cross-validation error rate that could not be validated later in independent cohorts. In this article, we illustrated the probabilistic framework of the problem and explored the statistical and asymptotic properties. We proposed a new bias correction method based on learning curve fitting by inverse power law (IPL) and compared it with three existing methods: nested cross-validation, weighted mean correction and Tibshirani-Tibshirani procedure. All methods were compared in simulation datasets, five moderate size real datasets and two large breast cancer datasets. The result showed that IPL outperforms the other methods in bias correction with smaller variance, and it has an additional advantage to extrapolate error estimates for larger sample sizes, a practical feature to recommend whether more samples should be recruited to improve the classifier and accuracy. An R package 'MLbias' and all source files are publicly available. tsenglab.biostat.pitt.edu/software.htm. ctseng@pitt.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Differentiating true and false schematic memories in older adults.

PubMed

Webb, Christina E; Dennis, Nancy A

2018-02-06

While schemas aid memory for schematically related information, the gist induced by the schema can also lead to high rates of false memories, especially in older adults. The neural mechanisms that support and differentiate true and false memories in aging are not well understood. The current study sought to clarify this, using a novel scene paradigm to investigate the role of schemas on true and false memories in older adults. Healthy older adults encoded schematic scenes (e.g., bathroom). At retrieval, participants were tested on their memory for both schematic and non-schematic targets and lures while fMRI data was collected. Results indicate that true memories were supported by the typical retrieval network, and activity in this network was greater for true than false memories. Schema specific retrieval was supported by mPFC, extending this common finding to aging. While no region differentiated false memories compared to correct rejections, results showed that individual differences in false memory rates were associated with variability in neural activity. The findings underscore the importance of elucidating the neural basis of cognition within older adults, as well as the specific contribution of individual differences to the neural basis of memory errors in aging. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

False-Positive Rate of AKI Using Consensus Creatinine-Based Criteria.

PubMed

Lin, Jennie; Fernandez, Hilda; Shashaty, Michael G S; Negoianu, Dan; Testani, Jeffrey M; Berns, Jeffrey S; Parikh, Chirag R; Wilson, F Perry

2015-10-07

Use of small changes in serum creatinine to diagnose AKI allows for earlier detection but may increase diagnostic false-positive rates because of inherent laboratory and biologic variabilities of creatinine. We examined serum creatinine measurement characteristics in a prospective observational clinical reference cohort of 2267 adult patients with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and used these data to create a simulation cohort to model AKI false-positive rates. We simulated up to seven successive blood draws on an equal population of hypothetical patients with unchanging true serum creatinine values. Error terms generated from laboratory and biologic variabilities were added to each simulated patient's true serum creatinine value to obtain the simulated measured serum creatinine for each blood draw. We determined the proportion of patients who would be erroneously diagnosed with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria. Within the clinical cohort, 75.0% of patients received four serum creatinine draws within at least one 48-hour period during hospitalization. After four simulated creatinine measurements that accounted for laboratory variability calculated from assay characteristics and 4.4% of biologic variability determined from the clinical cohort and publicly available data, the overall false-positive rate for AKI diagnosis was 8.0% (interquartile range =7.9%-8.1%), whereas patients with true serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dl (representing 21% of the clinical cohort) had a false-positive AKI diagnosis rate of 30.5% (interquartile range =30.1%-30.9%) versus 2.0% (interquartile range =1.9%-2.1%) in patients with true serum creatinine values <1.5 mg/dl (P<0.001). Use of small serum creatinine changes to diagnose AKI is limited by high false-positive rates caused by inherent variability of serum creatinine at higher baseline values, potentially misclassifying patients with CKD in AKI studies. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

pyAmpli: an amplicon-based variant filter pipeline for targeted resequencing data.

PubMed

Beyens, Matthias; Boeckx, Nele; Van Camp, Guy; Op de Beeck, Ken; Vandeweyer, Geert

2017-12-14

Haloplex targeted resequencing is a popular method to analyze both germline and somatic variants in gene panels. However, involved wet-lab procedures may introduce false positives that need to be considered in subsequent data-analysis. No variant filtering rationale addressing amplicon enrichment related systematic errors, in the form of an all-in-one package, exists to our knowledge. We present pyAmpli, a platform independent parallelized Python package that implements an amplicon-based germline and somatic variant filtering strategy for Haloplex data. pyAmpli can filter variants for systematic errors by user pre-defined criteria. We show that pyAmpli significantly increases specificity, without reducing sensitivity, essential for reporting true positive clinical relevant mutations in gene panel data. pyAmpli is an easy-to-use software tool which increases the true positive variant call rate in targeted resequencing data. It specifically reduces errors related to PCR-based enrichment of targeted regions.

Controlling the type I error rate in two-stage sequential adaptive designs when testing for average bioequivalence.

PubMed

Maurer, Willi; Jones, Byron; Chen, Ying

2018-05-10

In a 2×2 crossover trial for establishing average bioequivalence (ABE) of a generic agent and a currently marketed drug, the recommended approach to hypothesis testing is the two one-sided test (TOST) procedure, which depends, among other things, on the estimated within-subject variability. The power of this procedure, and therefore the sample size required to achieve a minimum power, depends on having a good estimate of this variability. When there is uncertainty, it is advisable to plan the design in two stages, with an interim sample size reestimation after the first stage, using an interim estimate of the within-subject variability. One method and 3 variations of doing this were proposed by Potvin et al. Using simulation, the operating characteristics, including the empirical type I error rate, of the 4 variations (called Methods A, B, C, and D) were assessed by Potvin et al and Methods B and C were recommended. However, none of these 4 variations formally controls the type I error rate of falsely claiming ABE, even though the amount of inflation produced by Method C was considered acceptable. A major disadvantage of assessing type I error rate inflation using simulation is that unless all possible scenarios for the intended design and analysis are investigated, it is impossible to be sure that the type I error rate is controlled. Here, we propose an alternative, principled method of sample size reestimation that is guaranteed to control the type I error rate at any given significance level. This method uses a new version of the inverse-normal combination of p-values test, in conjunction with standard group sequential techniques, that is more robust to large deviations in initial assumptions regarding the variability of the pharmacokinetic endpoints. The sample size reestimation step is based on significance levels and power requirements that are conditional on the first-stage results. This necessitates a discussion and exploitation of the peculiar properties of the power curve of the TOST testing procedure. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real ABE study and compare the operating characteristics of our proposed method with those of Method B of Povin et al. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

WE-H-BRC-05: Catastrophic Error Metrics for Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, S; Molloy, J

Purpose: Intuitive evaluation of complex radiotherapy treatments is impractical, while data transfer anomalies create the potential for catastrophic treatment delivery errors. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, logical scrutiny can be applied to patient-specific machine settings. Such tests can be automated, applied at the point of treatment delivery and can be dissociated from prior states of the treatment plan, potentially revealing errors introduced early in the process. Methods: Analytical metrics were formulated for conventional and intensity modulated RT (IMRT) treatments. These were designed to assess consistency between monitor unit settings, wedge values, prescription dose and leaf positioning (IMRT). Institutional metric averages formore » 218 clinical plans were stratified over multiple anatomical sites. Treatment delivery errors were simulated using a commercial treatment planning system and metric behavior assessed via receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) analysis. A positive result was returned if the erred plan metric value exceeded a given number of standard deviations, e.g. 2. The finding was declared true positive if the dosimetric impact exceeded 25%. ROC curves were generated over a range of metric standard deviations. Results: Data for the conventional treatment metric indicated standard deviations of 3%, 12%, 11%, 8%, and 5 % for brain, pelvis, abdomen, lung and breast sites, respectively. Optimum error declaration thresholds yielded true positive rates (TPR) between 0.7 and 1, and false positive rates (FPR) between 0 and 0.2. Two proposed IMRT metrics possessed standard deviations of 23% and 37%. The superior metric returned TPR and FPR of 0.7 and 0.2, respectively, when both leaf position and MUs were modelled. Isolation to only leaf position errors yielded TPR and FPR values of 0.9 and 0.1. Conclusion: Logical tests can reveal treatment delivery errors and prevent large, catastrophic errors. Analytical metrics are able to identify errors in monitor units, wedging and leaf positions with favorable sensitivity and specificity. In part by Varian.« less

Newborn screening for citrin deficiency and carnitine uptake defect using second-tier molecular tests.

PubMed

Wang, Li-Yun; Chen, Nien-I; Chen, Pin-Wen; Chiang, Shu-Chuan; Hwu, Wuh-Liang; Lee, Ni-Chung; Chien, Yin-Hsiu

2013-02-10

Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) analysis is a powerful tool for newborn screening, and many rare inborn errors of metabolism are currently screened using MS/MS. However, the sensitivity of MS/MS screening for several inborn errors, including citrin deficiency (screened by citrulline level) and carnitine uptake defect (CUD, screened by free carnitine level), is not satisfactory. This study was conducted to determine whether a second-tier molecular test could improve the sensitivity of citrin deficiency and CUD detection without increasing the false-positive rate. Three mutations in the SLC25A13 gene (for citrin deficiency) and one mutation in the SLC22A5 gene (for CUD) were analyzed in newborns who demonstrated an inconclusive primary screening result (with levels between the screening and diagnostic cutoffs). The results revealed that 314 of 46 699 newborns received a second-tier test for citrin deficiency, and two patients were identified; 206 of 30 237 newborns received a second-tier testing for CUD, and one patient was identified. No patients were identified using the diagnostic cutoffs. Although the incidences for citrin deficiency (1:23 350) and CUD (1:30 000) detected by screening are still lower than the incidences calculated from the mutation carrier rates, the second-tier molecular test increases the sensitivity of newborn screening for citrin deficiency and CUD without increasing the false-positive rate. Utilizing a molecular second-tier test for citrin deficiency and carnitine transporter deficiency is feasible.

A critical reappraisal of false negative sentinel lymph node biopsy in melanoma.

PubMed

Manca, G; Romanini, A; Rubello, D; Mazzarri, S; Boni, G; Chiacchio, S; Tredici, M; Duce, V; Tardelli, E; Volterrani, D; Mariani, G

2014-06-01

Lymphatic mapping and sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) have completely changed the clinical management of cutaneous melanoma. This procedure has been accepted worldwide as a recognized method for nodal staging. SLNB is able to accurately determine nodal basin status, providing the most useful prognostic information. However, SLNB is not a perfect diagnostic test. Several large-scale studies have reported a relatively high false-negative rate (5.6-21%), correctly defined as the proportion of false-negative results with respect to the total number of "actual" positive lymph nodes. The main purpose of this review is to address the technical issues that nuclear physicians, surgeons, and pathologists should carefully consider to improve the accuracy of SLNB by minimizing its false-negative rate. In particular, SPECT/CT imaging has demonstrated to be able to identify a greater number of sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) than those found by planar lymphoscintigraphy. Furthermore, a unique definition in the international guidelines is missing for the operational identification of SLNs, which may be partly responsible for this relatively high false-negative rate of SLNB. Therefore, it is recommended for the scientific community to agree on the radioactive counting rate threshold so that the surgeon can be better radioguided to detect all the lymph nodes which are most likely to harbor metastases. Another possible source of error may be linked to the examination of the harvested SLNs by conventional histopathological methods. A more careful and extensive SLN analysis (e.g. molecular analysis by RT-PCR) is able to find more positive nodes, so that the false-negative rate is reduced. Older age at diagnosis, deeper lesions, histologic ulceration, head-neck anatomical location of primary lesions are the clinical factors associated with false-negative SLNBs in melanoma patients. There is still much controversy about the clinical significance of a false-negative SLNB on the prognosis of melanoma patients. Indeed, most studies have failed to show that there is worse melanoma-specific survival for false-negative compared to true-positive SLNB patients.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, Alexandra M.; Mays, M. Leila; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Jian, Lan K.; Odstrcil, Dusan; MacNeice, Peter

2018-03-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

Fully automatic region of interest selection in glomerular filtration rate estimation from 99mTc-DTPA renogram.

PubMed

Lin, Kun-Ju; Huang, Jia-Yann; Chen, Yung-Sheng

2011-12-01

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is a common accepted standard estimation of renal function. Gamma camera-based methods for estimating renal uptake of (99m)Tc-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) without blood or urine sampling have been widely used. Of these, the method introduced by Gates has been the most common method. Currently, most of gamma cameras are equipped with a commercial program for GFR determination, a semi-quantitative analysis by manually drawing region of interest (ROI) over each kidney. Then, the GFR value can be computed from the scintigraphic determination of (99m)Tc-DTPA uptake within the kidney automatically. Delineating the kidney area is difficult when applying a fixed threshold value. Moreover, hand-drawn ROIs are tedious, time consuming, and dependent highly on operator skill. Thus, we developed a fully automatic renal ROI estimation system based on the temporal changes in intensity counts, intensity-pair distribution image contrast enhancement method, adaptive thresholding, and morphological operations that can locate the kidney area and obtain the GFR value from a (99m)Tc-DTPA renogram. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, 30 clinical dynamic renograms were introduced. The fully automatic approach failed in one patient with very poor renal function. Four patients had a unilateral kidney, and the others had bilateral kidneys. The automatic contours from the remaining 54 kidneys were compared with the contours of manual drawing. The 54 kidneys were included for area error and boundary error analyses. There was high correlation between two physicians' manual contours and the contours obtained by our approach. For area error analysis, the mean true positive area overlap is 91%, the mean false negative is 13.4%, and the mean false positive is 9.3%. The boundary error is 1.6 pixels. The GFR calculated using this automatic computer-aided approach is reproducible and may be applied to help nuclear medicine physicians in clinical practice.

Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daily, Jonathan P.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Smith, David; Snyder, Craig D.

2012-01-01

Threshold detection methods are increasingly popular for assessing nonlinear responses to environmental change, but their statistical performance remains poorly understood. We simulated linear change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities and evaluated the performance of commonly used threshold detection methods based on model fitting (piecewise quantile regression [PQR]), data partitioning (nonparametric change point analysis [NCPA]), and a hybrid approach (significant zero crossings [SiZer]). We demonstrated that false detection of ecological thresholds (type I errors) and inferences on threshold locations are influenced by sample size, rate of linear change, and frequency of observations across the environmental gradient (i.e., sample-environment distribution, SED). However, the relative importance of these factors varied among statistical methods and between inference types. False detection rates were influenced primarily by user-selected parameters for PQR (τ) and SiZer (bandwidth) and secondarily by sample size (for PQR) and SED (for SiZer). In contrast, the location of reported thresholds was influenced primarily by SED. Bootstrapped confidence intervals for NCPA threshold locations revealed strong correspondence to SED. We conclude that the choice of statistical methods for threshold detection should be matched to experimental and environmental constraints to minimize false detection rates and avoid spurious inferences regarding threshold location.

E/N effects on K0 values revealed by high precision measurements under low field conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauck, Brian C.; Siems, William F.; Harden, Charles S.; McHugh, Vincent M.; Hill, Herbert H.

2016-07-01

Ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) is used to detect chemical warfare agents, explosives, and narcotics. While IMS has a low rate of false positives, their occurrence causes the loss of time and money as the alarm is verified. Because numerous variables affect the reduced mobility (K0) of an ion, wide detection windows are required in order to ensure a low false negative response rate. Wide detection windows, however, reduce response selectivity, and interferents with similar K0 values may be mistaken for targeted compounds and trigger a false positive alarm. Detection windows could be narrowed if reference K0 values were accurately known for specific instrumental conditions. Unfortunately, there is a lack of confidence in the literature values due to discrepancies in the reported K0 values and their lack of reported error. This creates the need for the accurate control and measurement of each variable affecting ion mobility, as well as for a central accurate IMS database for reference and calibration. A new ion mobility spectrometer has been built that reduces the error of measurements affecting K0 by an order of magnitude less than ±0.2%. Precise measurements of ±0.002 cm2 V-1 s-1 or better have been produced and, as a result, an unexpected relationship between K0 and the electric field to number density ratio (E/N) has been discovered in which the K0 values of ions decreased as a function of E/N along a second degree polynomial trend line towards an apparent asymptote at approximately 4 Td.

Jumping to the wrong conclusions? An investigation of the mechanisms of reasoning errors in delusions

PubMed Central

Jolley, Suzanne; Thompson, Claire; Hurley, James; Medin, Evelina; Butler, Lucy; Bebbington, Paul; Dunn, Graham; Freeman, Daniel; Fowler, David; Kuipers, Elizabeth; Garety, Philippa

2014-01-01

Understanding how people with delusions arrive at false conclusions is central to the refinement of cognitive behavioural interventions. Making hasty decisions based on limited data (‘jumping to conclusions’, JTC) is one potential causal mechanism, but reasoning errors may also result from other processes. In this study, we investigated the correlates of reasoning errors under differing task conditions in 204 participants with schizophrenia spectrum psychosis who completed three probabilistic reasoning tasks. Psychotic symptoms, affect, and IQ were also evaluated. We found that hasty decision makers were more likely to draw false conclusions, but only 37% of their reasoning errors were consistent with the limited data they had gathered. The remainder directly contradicted all the presented evidence. Reasoning errors showed task-dependent associations with IQ, affect, and psychotic symptoms. We conclude that limited data-gathering contributes to false conclusions but is not the only mechanism involved. Delusions may also be maintained by a tendency to disregard evidence. Low IQ and emotional biases may contribute to reasoning errors in more complex situations. Cognitive strategies to reduce reasoning errors should therefore extend beyond encouragement to gather more data, and incorporate interventions focused directly on these difficulties. PMID:24958065

Statistical Analysis of Hit/Miss Data (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

HDBK-1823A, 2009). Other agencies and industries have also made use of this guidance (Gandossi et al., 2010) and ( Drury et al., 2006). It should...better accounting of false call rates such that the POD curve doesn’t converge to 0 for small flaw sizes. The difficulty with conventional methods...2002. Drury , Ghylin, and Holness, Error Analysis and Threat Magnitude for Carry-on Bag Inspection, Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomic

Imagery Ability and Task Performance.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-24

expected both the reaction times and the error rates to be higher for the more difficult trials on each dimension, and this was true in the curvature and... true and two false assertions about "* the spatial relationships between the shapes in that particular 13 configuration. An example of one...the shapes, the shapes were returned to the experimenter and the subject was given a booklet containing the ten descriptions, each on a separate page

Processing Images of Craters for Spacecraft Navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Yang; Johnson, Andrew E.; Matthies, Larry H.

2009-01-01

A crater-detection algorithm has been conceived to enable automation of what, heretofore, have been manual processes for utilizing images of craters on a celestial body as landmarks for navigating a spacecraft flying near or landing on that body. The images are acquired by an electronic camera aboard the spacecraft, then digitized, then processed by the algorithm, which consists mainly of the following steps: 1. Edges in an image detected and placed in a database. 2. Crater rim edges are selected from the edge database. 3. Edges that belong to the same crater are grouped together. 4. An ellipse is fitted to each group of crater edges. 5. Ellipses are refined directly in the image domain to reduce errors introduced in the detection of edges and fitting of ellipses. 6. The quality of each detected crater is evaluated. It is planned to utilize this algorithm as the basis of a computer program for automated, real-time, onboard processing of crater-image data. Experimental studies have led to the conclusion that this algorithm is capable of a detection rate >93 percent, a false-alarm rate <5 percent, a geometric error <0.5 pixel, and a position error <0.3 pixel.

Correcting for sequencing error in maximum likelihood phylogeny inference.

PubMed

Kuhner, Mary K; McGill, James

2014-11-04

Accurate phylogenies are critical to taxonomy as well as studies of speciation processes and other evolutionary patterns. Accurate branch lengths in phylogenies are critical for dating and rate measurements. Such accuracy may be jeopardized by unacknowledged sequencing error. We use simulated data to test a correction for DNA sequencing error in maximum likelihood phylogeny inference. Over a wide range of data polymorphism and true error rate, we found that correcting for sequencing error improves recovery of the branch lengths, even if the assumed error rate is up to twice the true error rate. Low error rates have little effect on recovery of the topology. When error is high, correction improves topological inference; however, when error is extremely high, using an assumed error rate greater than the true error rate leads to poor recovery of both topology and branch lengths. The error correction approach tested here was proposed in 2004 but has not been widely used, perhaps because researchers do not want to commit to an estimate of the error rate. This study shows that correction with an approximate error rate is generally preferable to ignoring the issue. Copyright © 2014 Kuhner and McGill.

Can false memories be corrected by feedback in the DRM paradigm?

PubMed

McConnell, Melissa D; Hunt, R Reed

2007-07-01

Normal processes of comprehension frequently yield false memories as an unwanted by-product. The simple paradigm now known as the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm takes advantage of this fact and has been used to reliably produce false memory for laboratory study. Among the findings from past research is the difficulty of preventing false memories in this paradigm. The purpose of the present experiments was to examine the effectiveness of feedback in correcting false memories. Two experiments were conducted, in which participants recalled DRM lists and either received feedback on their performance or did not. A subsequent recall test was administered to assess the effect of feedback. The results showed promising effects of feedback: Feedback enhanced both error correction and the propagation of correct recall. The data replicated other data of studies that have shown substantial error perseveration following feedback. These data also provide new information on the occurrence of errors following feedback. The results are discussed in terms of the activation-monitoring theory of false memory.

How many genetic markers to tag an individual? An empirical assessment of false matching rates among close relatives.

PubMed

Rew, Mary Beth; Robbins, Jooke; Mattila, David; Palsbøll, Per J; Bérube, Martine

2011-04-01

Genetic identification of individuals is now commonplace, enabling the application of tagging methods to elusive species or species that cannot be tagged by traditional methods. A key aspect is determining the number of loci required to ensure that different individuals have non-matching multi-locus genotypes. Closely related individuals are of particular concern because of elevated matching probabilities caused by their recent co-ancestry. This issue may be addressed by increasing the number of loci to a level where full siblings (the relatedness category with the highest matching probability) are expected to have non-matching multi-locus genotypes. However, increasing the number of loci to meet this "full-sib criterion" greatly increases the laboratory effort, which in turn may increase the genotyping error rate resulting in an upward-biased mark-recapture estimate of abundance as recaptures are missed due to genotyping errors. We assessed the contribution of false matches from close relatives among 425 maternally related humpback whales, each genotyped at 20 microsatellite loci. We observed a very low (0.5-4%) contribution to falsely matching samples from pairs of first-order relatives (i.e., parent and offspring or full siblings). The main contribution to falsely matching individuals from close relatives originated from second-order relatives (e.g., half siblings), which was estimated at 9%. In our study, the total number of observed matches agreed well with expectations based upon the matching probability estimated for unrelated individuals, suggesting that the full-sib criterion is overly conservative, and would have required a 280% relative increase in effort. We suggest that, under most circumstances, the overall contribution to falsely matching samples from close relatives is likely to be low, and hence applying the full-sib criterion is unnecessary. In those cases where close relatives may present a significant issue, such as unrepresentative sampling, we propose three different genotyping strategies requiring only a modest increase in effort, which will greatly reduce the number of false matches due to the presence of related individuals.

Data-driven region-of-interest selection without inflating Type I error rate.

PubMed

Brooks, Joseph L; Zoumpoulaki, Alexia; Bowman, Howard

2017-01-01

In ERP and other large multidimensional neuroscience data sets, researchers often select regions of interest (ROIs) for analysis. The method of ROI selection can critically affect the conclusions of a study by causing the researcher to miss effects in the data or to detect spurious effects. In practice, to avoid inflating Type I error rate (i.e., false positives), ROIs are often based on a priori hypotheses or independent information. However, this can be insensitive to experiment-specific variations in effect location (e.g., latency shifts) reducing power to detect effects. Data-driven ROI selection, in contrast, is nonindependent and uses the data under analysis to determine ROI positions. Therefore, it has potential to select ROIs based on experiment-specific information and increase power for detecting effects. However, data-driven methods have been criticized because they can substantially inflate Type I error rate. Here, we demonstrate, using simulations of simple ERP experiments, that data-driven ROI selection can indeed be more powerful than a priori hypotheses or independent information. Furthermore, we show that data-driven ROI selection using the aggregate grand average from trials (AGAT), despite being based on the data at hand, can be safely used for ROI selection under many circumstances. However, when there is a noise difference between conditions, using the AGAT can inflate Type I error and should be avoided. We identify critical assumptions for use of the AGAT and provide a basis for researchers to use, and reviewers to assess, data-driven methods of ROI localization in ERP and other studies. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Simulated rRNA/DNA Ratios Show Potential To Misclassify Active Populations as Dormant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steven, Blaire; Hesse, Cedar; Soghigian, John

The use of rRNA/DNA ratios derived from surveys of rRNA sequences in RNA and DNA extracts is an appealing but poorly validated approach to infer the activity status of environmental microbes. To improve the interpretation of rRNA/DNA ratios, we performed simulations to investigate the effects of community structure, rRNA amplification, and sampling depth on the accuracy of rRNA/DNA ratios in classifying bacterial populations as “active” or “dormant.” Community structure was an insignificant factor. In contrast, the extent of rRNA amplification that occurs as cells transition from dormant to growing had a significant effect (P < 0.0001) on classification accuracy, withmore » misclassification errors ranging from 16 to 28%, depending on the rRNA amplification model. The error rate increased to 47% when communities included a mixture of rRNA amplification models, but most of the inflated error was false negatives (i.e., active populations misclassified as dormant). Sampling depth also affected error rates (P < 0.001). Inadequate sampling depth produced various artifacts that are characteristic of rRNA/DNA ratios generated from real communities. These data show important constraints on the use of rRNA/DNA ratios to infer activity status. Whereas classification of populations as active based on rRNA/DNA ratios appears generally valid, classification of populations as dormant is potentially far less accurate.« less

Simulated rRNA/DNA Ratios Show Potential To Misclassify Active Populations as Dormant

DOE PAGES

Steven, Blaire; Hesse, Cedar; Soghigian, John; ...

2017-03-31

The use of rRNA/DNA ratios derived from surveys of rRNA sequences in RNA and DNA extracts is an appealing but poorly validated approach to infer the activity status of environmental microbes. To improve the interpretation of rRNA/DNA ratios, we performed simulations to investigate the effects of community structure, rRNA amplification, and sampling depth on the accuracy of rRNA/DNA ratios in classifying bacterial populations as “active” or “dormant.” Community structure was an insignificant factor. In contrast, the extent of rRNA amplification that occurs as cells transition from dormant to growing had a significant effect (P < 0.0001) on classification accuracy, withmore » misclassification errors ranging from 16 to 28%, depending on the rRNA amplification model. The error rate increased to 47% when communities included a mixture of rRNA amplification models, but most of the inflated error was false negatives (i.e., active populations misclassified as dormant). Sampling depth also affected error rates (P < 0.001). Inadequate sampling depth produced various artifacts that are characteristic of rRNA/DNA ratios generated from real communities. These data show important constraints on the use of rRNA/DNA ratios to infer activity status. Whereas classification of populations as active based on rRNA/DNA ratios appears generally valid, classification of populations as dormant is potentially far less accurate.« less

Amelogenin test: From forensics to quality control in clinical and biochemical genomics.

PubMed

Francès, F; Portolés, O; González, J I; Coltell, O; Verdú, F; Castelló, A; Corella, D

2007-01-01

The increasing number of samples from the biomedical genetic studies and the number of centers participating in the same involves increasing risk of mistakes in the different sample handling stages. We have evaluated the usefulness of the amelogenin test for quality control in sample identification. Amelogenin test (frequently used in forensics) was undertaken on 1224 individuals participating in a biomedical study. Concordance between referred sex in the database and amelogenin test was estimated. Additional sex-error genetic detecting systems were developed. The overall concordance rate was 99.84% (1222/1224). Two samples showed a female amelogenin test outcome, being codified as males in the database. The first, after checking sex-specific biochemical and clinical profile data was found to be due to a codification error in the database. In the second, after checking the database, no apparent error was discovered because a correct male profile was found. False negatives in amelogenin male sex determination were discarded by additional tests, and feminine sex was confirmed. A sample labeling error was revealed after a new DNA extraction. The amelogenin test is a useful quality control tool for detecting sex-identification errors in large genomic studies, and can contribute to increase its validity.

Digital data detection and synchronization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noack, T. L.; Morris, J. F.

1973-01-01

The primary accomplishments have been in the analysis and simulation of receivers and bit synchronizers. It has been discovered that tracking rate effects play, a rather fundamental role in both receiver and synchronizer performance, but that data relating to recorder time-base-error, for the proper characterization of this phenomenon, is in rather short supply. It is possible to obtain operationally useful tape recorder time-base-error data from high signal-to-noise ratio tapes using synchronizers with relatively wideband tracking loops. Low signal-to-noise ratio tapes examined in the same way would not be synchronizable. Additional areas of interest covered are receiver false lock, cycle slipping, and other unusual phenomena, which have been described to some extent in this and earlier reports and simulated during the study.

Costas loop lock detection in the advanced receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mileant, A.; Hinedi, S.

1989-01-01

The advanced receiver currently being developed uses a Costas digital loop to demodulate the subcarrier. Previous analyses of lock detector algorithms for Costas loops have ignored the effects of the inherent correlation between the samples of the phase-error process. Accounting for this correlation is necessary to achieve the desired lock-detection probability for a given false-alarm rate. Both analysis and simulations are used to quantify the effects of phase correlation on lock detection for the square-law and the absolute-value type detectors. Results are obtained which depict the lock-detection probability as a function of loop signal-to-noise ratio for a given false-alarm rate. The mathematical model and computer simulation show that the square-law detector experiences less degradation due to phase jitter than the absolute-value detector and that the degradation in detector signal-to-noise ratio is more pronounced for square-wave than for sine-wave signals.

Performance Evaluation of a Biometric System Based on Acoustic Images

PubMed Central

Izquierdo-Fuente, Alberto; del Val, Lara; Jiménez, María I.; Villacorta, Juan J.

2011-01-01

An acoustic electronic scanning array for acquiring images from a person using a biometric application is developed. Based on pulse-echo techniques, multifrequency acoustic images are obtained for a set of positions of a person (front, front with arms outstretched, back and side). Two Uniform Linear Arrays (ULA) with 15 λ/2-equispaced sensors have been employed, using different spatial apertures in order to reduce sidelobe levels. Working frequencies have been designed on the basis of the main lobe width, the grating lobe levels and the frequency responses of people and sensors. For a case-study with 10 people, the acoustic profiles, formed by all images acquired, are evaluated and compared in a mean square error sense. Finally, system performance, using False Match Rate (FMR)/False Non-Match Rate (FNMR) parameters and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, is evaluated. On the basis of the obtained results, this system could be used for biometric applications. PMID:22163708

Turtle: identifying frequent k-mers with cache-efficient algorithms.

PubMed

Roy, Rajat Shuvro; Bhattacharya, Debashish; Schliep, Alexander

2014-07-15

Counting the frequencies of k-mers in read libraries is often a first step in the analysis of high-throughput sequencing data. Infrequent k-mers are assumed to be a result of sequencing errors. The frequent k-mers constitute a reduced but error-free representation of the experiment, which can inform read error correction or serve as the input to de novo assembly methods. Ideally, the memory requirement for counting should be linear in the number of frequent k-mers and not in the, typically much larger, total number of k-mers in the read library. We present a novel method that balances time, space and accuracy requirements to efficiently extract frequent k-mers even for high-coverage libraries and large genomes such as human. Our method is designed to minimize cache misses in a cache-efficient manner by using a pattern-blocked Bloom filter to remove infrequent k-mers from consideration in combination with a novel sort-and-compact scheme, instead of a hash, for the actual counting. Although this increases theoretical complexity, the savings in cache misses reduce the empirical running times. A variant of method can resort to a counting Bloom filter for even larger savings in memory at the expense of false-negative rates in addition to the false-positive rates common to all Bloom filter-based approaches. A comparison with the state-of-the-art shows reduced memory requirements and running times. The tools are freely available for download at http://bioinformatics.rutgers.edu/Software/Turtle and http://figshare.com/articles/Turtle/791582. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sentinel lymph node mapping in melanoma: the issue of false-negative findings.

PubMed

Manca, Gianpiero; Rubello, Domenico; Romanini, Antonella; Boni, Giuseppe; Chiacchio, Serena; Tredici, Manuel; Mazzarri, Sara; Duce, Valerio; Colletti, Patrick M; Volterrani, Duccio; Mariani, Giuliano

2014-07-01

Management of cutaneous melanoma has changed after introduction in the clinical routine of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) for nodal staging. By defining the nodal basin status, SLNB provides a powerful prognostic information. Nevertheless, some debate still surrounds the accuracy of this procedure in terms of false-negative rate. Several large-scale studies have reported a relatively high false-negative rate (5.6%-21%), correctly defined as the proportion of false-negative results with respect to the total number of "actual" positive lymph nodes. In this review, we identified all the technical aspects that the nuclear medicine physician, the surgeon, and the pathologist should take into account to improve accuracy of the procedure and minimize the false-negative rate. In particular, SPECT/CT imaging detects more SLNs than those found by planar lymphoscintigraphy. Furthermore, the nuclear medicine community should reach a consensus on the radioactive counting rate threshold to better guide the surgeon in identifying the lymph nodes with the highest likelihood of housing metastases ("true biologic SLNs"). Analysis of the harvested SLNs by conventional techniques is also a further potential source for error. More accurate SLN analysis (eg, molecular analysis by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction) and more extensive SLN sampling identify more positive nodes, thus reducing the false-negative rate.The clinical factors identifying patients at higher-risk local recurrence after a negative SLNB include older age at diagnosis, deeper lesions, histological ulceration, and head-neck anatomic location of the primary lesion.The clinical impact of a false-negative SLNB on the prognosis of melanoma patients remains controversial, because the majority of studies have failed to demonstrate overall statistically significant disadvantage in melanoma-specific survival for false-negative SLNB patients compared with true-positive SLNB patients.When new more effective drugs will be available in the adjuvant setting for stage III melanoma patients, the implication of an accurate staging procedure for the sentinel lymph nodes will be crucial for both patients and clinicians. Standardization and accuracy of SLN identification, removal, and analysis are required.

Serum Free Light Chain Assay and κ/λ Ratio Performance in Patients Without Monoclonal Gammopathies:  High False-Positive Rate.

PubMed

Singh, Gurmukh

2016-08-01

Serum free light chain assay is a recommended screening test for monoclonal gammopathies. Anecdotal observations indicated a high rate of false-positive abnormal κ/λ ratios. This study was undertaken to ascertain the magnitude of the false-positive rate and factors contributing to the error rate. Results of serum protein electrophoresis, serum free light chains, and related tests, usually done for investigation of suspected monoclonal gammopathy, were reviewed retrospectively for 270 patients and 297 observations. Using the conventional κ/λ ratio, 36.4% of the ratios were abnormal, in the absence of monoclonal gammopathy. When the renal κ/λ ratio was used, the rate of abnormal κ/λ ratios was 30.1%. In patients with a γ-globulin concentration of 1.6 g/dL or more, the usual κ/λ ratio was abnormal in 54.8% of the patients. Urine protein electrophoresis was used in 53 (19.6%) instances, whereas bone marrow examination was done in 65 (24.1%) cases. Usual κ/λ ratio was abnormal in 36.4% of the observations in patients without evidence of monoclonal gammopathy, and an abnormal κ/λ ratio should not be used as the sole indicator for diagnosis of neoplastic proliferation of the lympho-plasmacytic system. Hypergammaglobulinemia is associated with a higher rate of false-positive abnormal κ/λ ratios. Examination of urine for monoclonal immunoglobulins may be underused, and recommendations by some to use serum free light chain assay in place of, rather than as an adjunct to, urine electrophoresis are not warranted. © American Society for Clinical Pathology, 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A real-time heat strain risk classifier using heart rate and skin temperature.

PubMed

Buller, Mark J; Latzka, William A; Yokota, Miyo; Tharion, William J; Moran, Daniel S

2008-12-01

Heat injury is a real concern to workers engaged in physically demanding tasks in high heat strain environments. Several real-time physiological monitoring systems exist that can provide indices of heat strain, e.g. physiological strain index (PSI), and provide alerts to medical personnel. However, these systems depend on core temperature measurement using expensive, ingestible thermometer pills. Seeking a better solution, we suggest the use of a model which can identify the probability that individuals are 'at risk' from heat injury using non-invasive measures. The intent is for the system to identify individuals who need monitoring more closely or who should apply heat strain mitigation strategies. We generated a model that can identify 'at risk' (PSI 7.5) workers from measures of heart rate and chest skin temperature. The model was built using data from six previously published exercise studies in which some subjects wore chemical protective equipment. The model has an overall classification error rate of 10% with one false negative error (2.7%), and outperforms an earlier model and a least squares regression model with classification errors of 21% and 14%, respectively. Additionally, the model allows the classification criteria to be adjusted based on the task and acceptable level of risk. We conclude that the model could be a valuable part of a multi-faceted heat strain management system.

Field‐readable alphanumeric flags are valuable markers for shorebirds: use of double‐marking to identify cases of misidentification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roche, Erin A.; Dovichin, Colin M.; Arnold, Todd W.

2014-01-01

Implicit assumptions for most mark-recapture studies are that individuals do not lose their markers and all observed markers are correctly recorded. If these assumptions are violated, e.g., due to loss or extreme wear of markers, estimates of population size and vital rates will be biased. Double-marking experiments have been widely used to estimate rates of marker loss and adjust for associated bias, and we extended this approach to estimate rates of recording errors. We double-marked 309 Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) with unique combinations of color bands and alphanumeric flags and used multi-state mark recapture models to estimate the frequency with which plovers were misidentified. Observers were twice as likely to read and report an invalid color-band combination (2.4% of the time) as an invalid alphanumeric code (1.0%). Observers failed to read matching band combinations or alphanumeric flag codes 4.5% of the time. Unlike previous band resighting studies, use of two resightable markers allowed us to identify when resighting errors resulted in reports of combinations or codes that were valid, but still incorrect; our results suggest this may be a largely unappreciated problem in mark-resight studies. Field-readable alphanumeric flags offer a promising auxiliary marker for identifying and potentially adjusting for false-positive resighting errors that may otherwise bias demographic estimates.

Learning time-dependent noise to reduce logical errors: real time error rate estimation in quantum error correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Ming-Xia; Li, Ying

2017-12-01

Quantum error correction is important to quantum information processing, which allows us to reliably process information encoded in quantum error correction codes. Efficient quantum error correction benefits from the knowledge of error rates. We propose a protocol for monitoring error rates in real time without interrupting the quantum error correction. Any adaptation of the quantum error correction code or its implementation circuit is not required. The protocol can be directly applied to the most advanced quantum error correction techniques, e.g. surface code. A Gaussian processes algorithm is used to estimate and predict error rates based on error correction data in the past. We find that using these estimated error rates, the probability of error correction failures can be significantly reduced by a factor increasing with the code distance.

Adaptive Impact-Driven Detection of Silent Data Corruption for HPC Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di, Sheng; Cappello, Franck

For exascale HPC applications, silent data corruption (SDC) is one of the most dangerous problems because there is no indication that there are errors during the execution. We propose an adaptive impact-driven method that can detect SDCs dynamically. The key contributions are threefold. (1) We carefully characterize 18 real-world HPC applications and discuss the runtime data features, as well as the impact of the SDCs on their execution results. (2) We propose an impact-driven detection model that does not blindly improve the prediction accuracy, but instead detects only influential SDCs to guarantee user-acceptable execution results. (3) Our solution can adaptmore » to dynamic prediction errors based on local runtime data and can automatically tune detection ranges for guaranteeing low false alarms. Experiments show that our detector can detect 80-99.99% of SDCs with a false alarm rate less that 1% of iterations for most cases. The memory cost and detection overhead are reduced to 15% and 6.3%, respectively, for a large majority of applications.« less

Human Factors Evaluation of Conflict Detection Tool for Terminal Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verma, Savita Arora; Tang, Huabin; Ballinger, Deborah; Chinn, Fay Cherie; Kozon, Thomas E.

2013-01-01

A conflict detection and resolution tool, Terminal-area Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE), is being developed to improve the timeliness and accuracy of alerts and reduce the false alert rate observed with the currently deployed technology. The legacy system in use today, Conflict Alert, relies primarily on a dead reckoning algorithm, whereas T-TSAFE uses intent information to augment dead reckoning. In previous experiments, T-TSAFE was found to reduce the rate of false alerts and increase time between the alert to the controller and a loss of separation over the legacy system. In the present study, T-TSAFE was tested under two meteorological conditions, 1) all aircraft operated under instrument flight regimen, and 2) some aircraft operated under mixed operating conditions. The tool was used to visually alert controllers to predicted Losses of separation throughout the terminal airspace, and show compression errors, on final approach. The performance of T-TSAFE on final approach was compared with Automated Terminal Proximity Alert (ATPA), a tool recently deployed by the FAA. Results show that controllers did not report differences in workload or situational awareness between the T-TSAFE and ATPA cones but did prefer T-TSAFE features over ATPA functionality. T-TSAFE will provide one tool that shows alerts in the data blocks and compression errors via cones on the final approach, implementing all tactical conflict detection and alerting via one tool in TRACON airspace.

False-Positive Error Rates for Reliable Digit Span and Auditory Verbal Learning Test Performance Validity Measures in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Early Alzheimer Disease.

PubMed

Loring, David W; Goldstein, Felicia C; Chen, Chuqing; Drane, Daniel L; Lah, James J; Zhao, Liping; Larrabee, Glenn J

2016-06-01

The objective is to examine failure on three embedded performance validity tests [Reliable Digit Span (RDS), Auditory Verbal Learning Test (AVLT) logistic regression, and AVLT recognition memory] in early Alzheimer disease (AD; n = 178), amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 365), and cognitively intact age-matched controls (n = 206). Neuropsychological tests scores were obtained from subjects participating in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). RDS failure using a ≤7 RDS threshold was 60/178 (34%) for early AD, 52/365 (14%) for MCI, and 17/206 (8%) for controls. A ≤6 RDS criterion reduced this rate to 24/178 (13%) for early AD, 15/365 (4%) for MCI, and 7/206 (3%) for controls. AVLT logistic regression probability of ≥.76 yielded unacceptably high false-positive rates in both clinical groups [early AD = 149/178 (79%); MCI = 159/365 (44%)] but not cognitively intact controls (13/206, 6%). AVLT recognition criterion of ≤9/15 classified 125/178 (70%) of early AD, 155/365 (42%) of MCI, and 18/206 (9%) of control scores as invalid, which decreased to 66/178 (37%) for early AD, 46/365 (13%) for MCI, and 10/206 (5%) for controls when applying a ≤5/15 criterion. Despite high false-positive rates across individual measures and thresholds, combining RDS ≤ 6 and AVLT recognition ≤9/15 classified only 9/178 (5%) of early AD and 4/365 (1%) of MCI patients as invalid performers. Embedded validity cutoffs derived from mixed clinical groups produce unacceptably high false-positive rates in MCI and early AD. Combining embedded PVT indicators lowers the false-positive rate. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Jumping to the wrong conclusions? An investigation of the mechanisms of reasoning errors in delusions.

PubMed

Jolley, Suzanne; Thompson, Claire; Hurley, James; Medin, Evelina; Butler, Lucy; Bebbington, Paul; Dunn, Graham; Freeman, Daniel; Fowler, David; Kuipers, Elizabeth; Garety, Philippa

2014-10-30

Understanding how people with delusions arrive at false conclusions is central to the refinement of cognitive behavioural interventions. Making hasty decisions based on limited data ('jumping to conclusions', JTC) is one potential causal mechanism, but reasoning errors may also result from other processes. In this study, we investigated the correlates of reasoning errors under differing task conditions in 204 participants with schizophrenia spectrum psychosis who completed three probabilistic reasoning tasks. Psychotic symptoms, affect, and IQ were also evaluated. We found that hasty decision makers were more likely to draw false conclusions, but only 37% of their reasoning errors were consistent with the limited data they had gathered. The remainder directly contradicted all the presented evidence. Reasoning errors showed task-dependent associations with IQ, affect, and psychotic symptoms. We conclude that limited data-gathering contributes to false conclusions but is not the only mechanism involved. Delusions may also be maintained by a tendency to disregard evidence. Low IQ and emotional biases may contribute to reasoning errors in more complex situations. Cognitive strategies to reduce reasoning errors should therefore extend beyond encouragement to gather more data, and incorporate interventions focused directly on these difficulties. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Working Memory Encoding and False Memory in Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder in a Spatial Delayed Response Task

PubMed Central

Mayer, Jutta S.; Park, Sohee

2014-01-01

Working memory (WM) impairment is a core feature of schizophrenia, but the contributions of different WM components are not yet specified. Here, we investigated the potential role of inefficient encoding in reduced WM performance in patients with schizophrenia (PSZ). Twenty-eight PSZ, 16 patients with bipolar disorder (PBP), 16 unaffected and unmedicated relatives of PSZ (REL), and 29 demographically matched healthy controls (HC) performed a spatial delayed response task with either low or high WM demands. The demands on attentional selection were also manipulated by presenting distractor stimuli during encoding in some of the trials. After each trial, participants rated their level of response confidence. This allowed us to analyze different types of WM responses. WM was severely impaired in PSZ compared to HC; this reduction was mainly due to an increase in the amount of false memory responses (incorrect responses that were given with high confidence) rather than an increase in the amount of incorrect and not-confident responses. Although PBP showed WM impairments, they did not have increased false memory errors. In contrast, reduced WM in REL was also accompanied by an increase in false memory errors. The presentation of distractors led to a decline in WM performance, which was comparable across groups indicating that attentional selection was intact in PSZ. These findings suggest that inefficient WM encoding is responsible for impaired WM in schizophrenia and point to differential mechanisms underlying WM impairments in PSZ and PBP. PMID:22708888

The use of source memory to identify one's own episodic confusion errors.

PubMed

Smith, S M; Tindell, D R; Pierce, B H; Gilliland, T R; Gerkens, D R

2001-03-01

In 4 category cued recall experiments, participants falsely recalled nonlist common members, a semantic confusion error. Errors were more likely if critical nonlist words were presented on an incidental task, causing source memory failures called episodic confusion errors. Participants could better identify the source of falsely recalled words if they had deeply processed the words on the incidental task. For deep but not shallow processing, participants could reliably include or exclude incidentally shown category members in recall. The illusion that critical items actually appeared on categorized lists was diminished but not eradicated when participants identified episodic confusion errors post hoc among their own recalled responses; participants often believed that critical items had been on both the incidental task and the study list. Improved source monitoring can potentially mitigate episodic (but not semantic) confusion errors.

Physical and biological pretreatment quality assurance of the head and neck cancer plan with the volumetric modulated arc therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, So-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Soo; Lee, Yun-Hee; Lee, Seu-Ran; Kim, Min-Ju; Suh, Tae-Suk

2015-09-01

The aim of this work is to demonstrate both the physical and the biological quality assurance (QA) aspects as pretreatment QA of the head and neck (H&N) cancer plan for the volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Ten H&N plans were studied. The COMPASS® dosimetry analysis system and the tumor control probability (TCP) and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) calculation free program were used as the respective measurement and calculation tools. The reliability of these tools was verified by a benchmark study in accordance with the TG-166 report. For the physical component of QA, the gamma passing rates and the false negative cases between the calculated and the measured data were evaluated. The biological component of QA was performed based on the equivalent uniform dose (EUD), TCP and NTCP values. The evaluation was performed for the planning target volumes (PTVs) and the organs at risks (OARs), including the eyes, the lens, the parotid glands, the esophagus, the spinal cord, and the brainstem. All cases had gamma passing rates above 95% at an acceptance tolerance level with the 3%/3 mm criteria. In addition, the false negative instances were presented for the PTVs and OARs. The gamma passing rates exhibited a weak correlation with false negative cases. For the biological QA, the physical dose errors affect the EUD and the TCP for the PTVs, but no linear correlation existed between them. The EUD and NTCP for the OARs were shown the random differences that could not be attributed to the dose errors from the physical QA. The differences in the EUD and NTCP between the calculated and the measured results were mainly demonstrated for the parotid glands. This study describes the importance and the necessity of improved QA to accompany both the physical and the biological aspects for accurate radiation treatment.

Children with ADHD Symptoms Are Less Susceptible to Gap-Filling Errors than Typically Developing Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirandola, C.; Paparella, G.; Re, A. M.; Ghetti, S.; Cornoldi, C.

2012-01-01

Enhanced semantic processing is associated with increased false recognition of items consistent with studied material, suggesting that children with poor semantic skills could produce fewer false memories. We examined whether memory errors differed in children with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and controls. Children viewed 18…

Over-Distribution in Source Memory

PubMed Central

Brainerd, C. J.; Reyna, V. F.; Holliday, R. E.; Nakamura, K.

2012-01-01

Semantic false memories are confounded with a second type of error, over-distribution, in which items are attributed to contradictory episodic states. Over-distribution errors have proved to be more common than false memories when the two are disentangled. We investigated whether over-distribution is prevalent in another classic false memory paradigm: source monitoring. It is. Conventional false memory responses (source misattributions) were predominantly over-distribution errors, but unlike semantic false memory, over-distribution also accounted for more than half of true memory responses (correct source attributions). Experimental control of over-distribution was achieved via a series of manipulations that affected either recollection of contextual details or item memory (concreteness, frequency, list-order, number of presentation contexts, and individual differences in verbatim memory). A theoretical model was used to analyze the data (conjoint process dissociation) that predicts that predicts that (a) over-distribution is directly proportional to item memory but inversely proportional to recollection and (b) item memory is not a necessary precondition for recollection of contextual details. The results were consistent with both predictions. PMID:21942494

Determining decision thresholds and evaluating indicators when conservation status is measured as a continuum.

PubMed

Connors, B M; Cooper, A B

2014-12-01

Categorization of the status of populations, species, and ecosystems underpins most conservation activities. Status is often based on how a system's current indicator value (e.g., change in abundance) relates to some threshold of conservation concern. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves can be used to quantify the statistical reliability of indicators of conservation status and evaluate trade-offs between correct (true positive) and incorrect (false positive) classifications across a range of decision thresholds. However, ROC curves assume a discrete, binary relationship between an indicator and the conservation status it is meant to track, which is a simplification of the more realistic continuum of conservation status, and may limit the applicability of ROC curves in conservation science. We describe a modified ROC curve that treats conservation status as a continuum rather than a discrete state. We explored the influence of this continuum and typical sources of variation in abundance that can lead to classification errors (i.e., random variation and measurement error) on the true and false positive rates corresponding to varying decision thresholds and the reliability of change in abundance as an indicator of conservation status, respectively. We applied our modified ROC approach to an indicator of endangerment in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) (i.e., percent decline in geometric mean abundance) and an indicator of marine ecosystem structure and function (i.e., detritivore biomass). Failure to treat conservation status as a continuum when choosing thresholds for indicators resulted in the misidentification of trade-offs between true and false positive rates and the overestimation of an indicator's reliability. We argue for treating conservation status as a continuum when ROC curves are used to evaluate decision thresholds in indicators for the assessment of conservation status. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Imperfect pathogen detection from non-invasive skin swabs biases disease inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

DiRenzo, Graziella V.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Longo, Ana; Che-Castaldo, Christian; Zamudio, Kelly R.; Lips, Karen

2018-01-01

1. Conservation managers rely on accurate estimates of disease parameters, such as pathogen prevalence and infection intensity, to assess disease status of a host population. However, these disease metrics may be biased if low-level infection intensities are missed by sampling methods or laboratory diagnostic tests. These false negatives underestimate pathogen prevalence and overestimate mean infection intensity of infected individuals. 2. Our objectives were two-fold. First, we quantified false negative error rates of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis on non-invasive skin swabs collected from an amphibian community in El Copé, Panama. We swabbed amphibians twice in sequence, and we used a recently developed hierarchical Bayesian estimator to assess disease status of the population. Second, we developed a novel hierarchical Bayesian model to simultaneously account for imperfect pathogen detection from field sampling and laboratory diagnostic testing. We evaluated the performance of the model using simulations and varying sampling design to quantify the magnitude of bias in estimates of pathogen prevalence and infection intensity. 3. We show that Bd detection probability from skin swabs was related to host infection intensity, where Bd infections < 10 zoospores have < 95% probability of being detected. If imperfect Bd detection was not considered, then Bd prevalence was underestimated by as much as 16%. In the Bd-amphibian system, this indicates a need to correct for imperfect pathogen detection caused by skin swabs in persisting host communities with low-level infections. More generally, our results have implications for study designs in other disease systems, particularly those with similar objectives, biology, and sampling decisions. 4. Uncertainty in pathogen detection is an inherent property of most sampling protocols and diagnostic tests, where the magnitude of bias depends on the study system, type of infection, and false negative error rates. Given that it may be difficult to know this information in advance, we advocate that the most cautious approach is to assume all errors are possible and to accommodate them by adjusting sampling designs. The modeling framework presented here improves the accuracy in estimating pathogen prevalence and infection intensity.

Are special read alignment strategies necessary and cost-effective when handling sequencing reads from patient-derived tumor xenografts?

PubMed

Tso, Kai-Yuen; Lee, Sau Dan; Lo, Kwok-Wai; Yip, Kevin Y

2014-12-23

Patient-derived tumor xenografts in mice are widely used in cancer research and have become important in developing personalized therapies. When these xenografts are subject to DNA sequencing, the samples could contain various amounts of mouse DNA. It has been unclear how the mouse reads would affect data analyses. We conducted comprehensive simulations to compare three alignment strategies at different mutation rates, read lengths, sequencing error rates, human-mouse mixing ratios and sequenced regions. We also sequenced a nasopharyngeal carcinoma xenograft and a cell line to test how the strategies work on real data. We found the "filtering" and "combined reference" strategies performed better than aligning reads directly to human reference in terms of alignment and variant calling accuracies. The combined reference strategy was particularly good at reducing false negative variants calls without significantly increasing the false positive rate. In some scenarios the performance gain of these two special handling strategies was too small for special handling to be cost-effective, but it was found crucial when false non-synonymous SNVs should be minimized, especially in exome sequencing. Our study systematically analyzes the effects of mouse contamination in the sequencing data of human-in-mouse xenografts. Our findings provide information for designing data analysis pipelines for these data.

A New Method for Assessing How Sensitivity and Specificity of Linkage Studies Affects Estimation

PubMed Central

Moore, Cecilia L.; Amin, Janaki; Gidding, Heather F.; Law, Matthew G.

2014-01-01

Background While the importance of record linkage is widely recognised, few studies have attempted to quantify how linkage errors may have impacted on their own findings and outcomes. Even where authors of linkage studies have attempted to estimate sensitivity and specificity based on subjects with known status, the effects of false negatives and positives on event rates and estimates of effect are not often described. Methods We present quantification of the effect of sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process on event rates and incidence, as well as the resultant effect on relative risks. Formulae to estimate the true number of events and estimated relative risk adjusted for given linkage sensitivity and specificity are then derived and applied to data from a prisoner mortality study. The implications of false positive and false negative matches are also discussed. Discussion Comparisons of the effect of sensitivity and specificity on incidence and relative risks indicate that it is more important for linkages to be highly specific than sensitive, particularly if true incidence rates are low. We would recommend that, where possible, some quantitative estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process be performed, allowing the effect of these quantities on observed results to be assessed. PMID:25068293

Magnetic Resonance–Based Automatic Air Segmentation for Generation of Synthetic Computed Tomography Scans in the Head Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Weili; Kim, Joshua P.; Kadbi, Mo

2015-11-01

Purpose: To incorporate a novel imaging sequence for robust air and tissue segmentation using ultrashort echo time (UTE) phase images and to implement an innovative synthetic CT (synCT) solution as a first step toward MR-only radiation therapy treatment planning for brain cancer. Methods and Materials: Ten brain cancer patients were scanned with a UTE/Dixon sequence and other clinical sequences on a 1.0 T open magnet with simulation capabilities. Bone-enhanced images were generated from a weighted combination of water/fat maps derived from Dixon images and inverted UTE images. Automated air segmentation was performed using unwrapped UTE phase maps. Segmentation accuracy was assessedmore » by calculating segmentation errors (true-positive rate, false-positive rate, and Dice similarity indices using CT simulation (CT-SIM) as ground truth. The synCTs were generated using a voxel-based, weighted summation method incorporating T2, fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), UTE1, and bone-enhanced images. Mean absolute error (MAE) characterized Hounsfield unit (HU) differences between synCT and CT-SIM. A dosimetry study was conducted, and differences were quantified using γ-analysis and dose-volume histogram analysis. Results: On average, true-positive rate and false-positive rate for the CT and MR-derived air masks were 80.8% ± 5.5% and 25.7% ± 6.9%, respectively. Dice similarity indices values were 0.78 ± 0.04 (range, 0.70-0.83). Full field of view MAE between synCT and CT-SIM was 147.5 ± 8.3 HU (range, 138.3-166.2 HU), with the largest errors occurring at bone–air interfaces (MAE 422.5 ± 33.4 HU for bone and 294.53 ± 90.56 HU for air). Gamma analysis revealed pass rates of 99.4% ± 0.04%, with acceptable treatment plan quality for the cohort. Conclusions: A hybrid MRI phase/magnitude UTE image processing technique was introduced that significantly improved bone and air contrast in MRI. Segmented air masks and bone-enhanced images were integrated into our synCT pipeline for brain, and results agreed well with clinical CTs, thereby supporting MR-only radiation therapy treatment planning in the brain.« less

Magnetic Resonance-Based Automatic Air Segmentation for Generation of Synthetic Computed Tomography Scans in the Head Region.

PubMed

Zheng, Weili; Kim, Joshua P; Kadbi, Mo; Movsas, Benjamin; Chetty, Indrin J; Glide-Hurst, Carri K

2015-11-01

To incorporate a novel imaging sequence for robust air and tissue segmentation using ultrashort echo time (UTE) phase images and to implement an innovative synthetic CT (synCT) solution as a first step toward MR-only radiation therapy treatment planning for brain cancer. Ten brain cancer patients were scanned with a UTE/Dixon sequence and other clinical sequences on a 1.0 T open magnet with simulation capabilities. Bone-enhanced images were generated from a weighted combination of water/fat maps derived from Dixon images and inverted UTE images. Automated air segmentation was performed using unwrapped UTE phase maps. Segmentation accuracy was assessed by calculating segmentation errors (true-positive rate, false-positive rate, and Dice similarity indices using CT simulation (CT-SIM) as ground truth. The synCTs were generated using a voxel-based, weighted summation method incorporating T2, fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), UTE1, and bone-enhanced images. Mean absolute error (MAE) characterized Hounsfield unit (HU) differences between synCT and CT-SIM. A dosimetry study was conducted, and differences were quantified using γ-analysis and dose-volume histogram analysis. On average, true-positive rate and false-positive rate for the CT and MR-derived air masks were 80.8% ± 5.5% and 25.7% ± 6.9%, respectively. Dice similarity indices values were 0.78 ± 0.04 (range, 0.70-0.83). Full field of view MAE between synCT and CT-SIM was 147.5 ± 8.3 HU (range, 138.3-166.2 HU), with the largest errors occurring at bone-air interfaces (MAE 422.5 ± 33.4 HU for bone and 294.53 ± 90.56 HU for air). Gamma analysis revealed pass rates of 99.4% ± 0.04%, with acceptable treatment plan quality for the cohort. A hybrid MRI phase/magnitude UTE image processing technique was introduced that significantly improved bone and air contrast in MRI. Segmented air masks and bone-enhanced images were integrated into our synCT pipeline for brain, and results agreed well with clinical CTs, thereby supporting MR-only radiation therapy treatment planning in the brain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparing source-based and gist-based false recognition in aging and Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Pierce, Benton H; Sullivan, Alison L; Schacter, Daniel L; Budson, Andrew E

2005-07-01

This study examined 2 factors contributing to false recognition of semantic associates: errors based on confusion of source and errors based on general similarity information or gist. The authors investigated these errors in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), age-matched control participants, and younger adults, focusing on each group's ability to use recollection of source information to suppress false recognition. The authors used a paradigm consisting of both deep and shallow incidental encoding tasks, followed by study of a series of categorized lists in which several typical exemplars were omitted. Results showed that healthy older adults were able to use recollection from the deep processing task to some extent but less than that used by younger adults. In contrast, false recognition in AD patients actually increased following the deep processing task, suggesting that they were unable to use recollection to oppose familiarity arising from incidental presentation. (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

Reaction time, impulsivity, and attention in hyperactive children and controls: a video game technique.

PubMed

Mitchell, W G; Chavez, J M; Baker, S A; Guzman, B L; Azen, S P

1990-07-01

Maturation of sustained attention was studied in a group of 52 hyperactive elementary school children and 152 controls using a microcomputer-based test formatted to resemble a video game. In nonhyperactive children, both simple and complex reaction time decreased with age, as did variability of response time. Omission errors were extremely infrequent on simple reaction time and decreased with age on the more complex tasks. Commission errors had an inconsistent relationship with age. Hyperactive children were slower, more variable, and made more errors on all segments of the game than did controls. Both motor speed and calculated mental speed were slower in hyperactive children, with greater discrepancy for responses directed to the nondominant hand, suggesting that a selective right hemisphere deficit may be present in hyperactives. A summary score (number of individual game scores above the 95th percentile) of 4 or more detected 60% of hyperactive subjects with a false positive rate of 5%. Agreement with the Matching Familiar Figures Test was 75% in the hyperactive group.

False recollection of the role played by an actor in an event

PubMed Central

Earles, Julie L.; Upshaw, Christin

2013-01-01

Two experiments demonstrated that eyewitnesses more frequently associate an actor with the actions of another person when those two people had appeared together in the same event, rather than in different events. This greater likelihood of binding an actor with the actions of another person from the same event was associated with high-confidence recognition judgments and “remember” responses in a remember–know task, suggesting that viewing an actor together with the actions of another person led participants to falsely recollect having seen that actor perform those actions. An analysis of age differences provided evidence that familiarity also contributed to false recognition independently of a false-recollection mechanism. In particular, older adults were more likely than young adults to falsely recognize a novel conjunction of a familiar actor and action, regardless of whether that actor and action were from the same or from different events. Older adults’ elevated rate of false recognition was associated with intermediate confidence levels, suggesting that it stemmed from increased reliance on familiarity rather than from false recollection. The implications of these results are discussed for theories of conjunction errors in memory and of unconscious transference in eyewitness testimony. PMID:23722927

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 3.552 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Harmless error. 3.552 Section 3.552 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL PROVISIONS PATIENT SAFETY ORGANIZATIONS AND PATIENT SAFETY WORK PRODUCT Enforcement Program § 3.552 Harmless error. No error in either the...

Evaluation of trauma care using TRISS method: the role of adjusted misclassification rate and adjusted w-statistic.

PubMed

Llullaku, Sadik S; Hyseni, Nexhmi Sh; Bytyçi, Cen I; Rexhepi, Sylejman K

2009-01-15

Major trauma is a leading cause of death worldwide. Evaluation of trauma care using Trauma Injury and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) method is focused in trauma outcome (deaths and survivors). For testing TRISS method TRISS misclassification rate is used. Calculating w-statistic, as a difference between observed and TRISS expected survivors, we compare our trauma care results with the TRISS standard. The aim of this study is to analyze interaction between misclassification rate and w-statistic and to adjust these parameters to be closer to the truth. Analysis of components of TRISS misclassification rate and w-statistic and actual trauma outcome. The component of false negative (FN) (by TRISS method unexpected deaths) has two parts: preventable (Pd) and non-preventable (nonPd) trauma deaths. Pd represents inappropriate trauma care of an institution; otherwise nonpreventable trauma deaths represents errors in TRISS method. Removing patients with preventable trauma deaths we get an Adjusted misclassification rate: (FP + FN - Pd)/N or (b+c-Pd)/N. Substracting nonPd from FN value in w-statistic formula we get an Adjusted w-statistic: [FP-(FN - nonPd)]/N, respectively (FP-Pd)/N, or (b-Pd)/N). Because adjusted formulas clean method from inappropriate trauma care, and clean trauma care from the methods error, TRISS adjusted misclassification rate and adjusted w-statistic gives more realistic results and may be used in researches of trauma outcome.

Accuracy Evaluation of a 3-Dimensional Surface Imaging System for Guidance in Deep-Inspiration Breath-Hold Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alderliesten, Tanja; Sonke, Jan-Jakob; Betgen, Anja

2013-02-01

Purpose: To investigate the applicability of 3-dimensional (3D) surface imaging for image guidance in deep-inspiration breath-hold radiation therapy (DIBH-RT) for patients with left-sided breast cancer. For this purpose, setup data based on captured 3D surfaces was compared with setup data based on cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). Methods and Materials: Twenty patients treated with DIBH-RT after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) were included. Before the start of treatment, each patient underwent a breath-hold CT scan for planning purposes. During treatment, dose delivery was preceded by setup verification using CBCT of the left breast. 3D surfaces were captured by a surface imaging systemmore » concurrently with the CBCT scan. Retrospectively, surface registrations were performed for CBCT to CT and for a captured 3D surface to CT. The resulting setup errors were compared with linear regression analysis. For the differences between setup errors, group mean, systematic error, random error, and 95% limits of agreement were calculated. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed. Results: Good correlation between setup errors was found: R{sup 2}=0.70, 0.90, 0.82 in left-right, craniocaudal, and anterior-posterior directions, respectively. Systematic errors were {<=}0.17 cm in all directions. Random errors were {<=}0.15 cm. The limits of agreement were -0.34-0.48, -0.42-0.39, and -0.52-0.23 cm in left-right, craniocaudal, and anterior-posterior directions, respectively. ROC analysis showed that a threshold between 0.4 and 0.8 cm corresponds to promising true positive rates (0.78-0.95) and false positive rates (0.12-0.28). Conclusions: The results support the application of 3D surface imaging for image guidance in DIBH-RT after BCS.« less

A Robust Method to Detect Zero Velocity for Improved 3D Personal Navigation Using Inertial Sensors

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhengyi; Wei, Jianming; Zhang, Bo; Yang, Weijun

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a robust zero velocity (ZV) detector algorithm to accurately calculate stationary periods in a gait cycle. The proposed algorithm adopts an effective gait cycle segmentation method and introduces a Bayesian network (BN) model based on the measurements of inertial sensors and kinesiology knowledge to infer the ZV period. During the detected ZV period, an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is used to estimate the error states and calibrate the position error. The experiments reveal that the removal rate of ZV false detections by the proposed method increases 80% compared with traditional method at high walking speed. Furthermore, based on the detected ZV, the Personal Inertial Navigation System (PINS) algorithm aided by EKF performs better, especially in the altitude aspect. PMID:25831086

Prediction-Oriented Marker Selection (PROMISE): With Application to High-Dimensional Regression.

PubMed

Kim, Soyeon; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Lee, J Jack

2017-06-01

In personalized medicine, biomarkers are used to select therapies with the highest likelihood of success based on an individual patient's biomarker/genomic profile. Two goals are to choose important biomarkers that accurately predict treatment outcomes and to cull unimportant biomarkers to reduce the cost of biological and clinical verifications. These goals are challenging due to the high dimensionality of genomic data. Variable selection methods based on penalized regression (e.g., the lasso and elastic net) have yielded promising results. However, selecting the right amount of penalization is critical to simultaneously achieving these two goals. Standard approaches based on cross-validation (CV) typically provide high prediction accuracy with high true positive rates but at the cost of too many false positives. Alternatively, stability selection (SS) controls the number of false positives, but at the cost of yielding too few true positives. To circumvent these issues, we propose prediction-oriented marker selection (PROMISE), which combines SS with CV to conflate the advantages of both methods. Our application of PROMISE with the lasso and elastic net in data analysis shows that, compared to CV, PROMISE produces sparse solutions, few false positives, and small type I + type II error, and maintains good prediction accuracy, with a marginal decrease in the true positive rates. Compared to SS, PROMISE offers better prediction accuracy and true positive rates. In summary, PROMISE can be applied in many fields to select regularization parameters when the goals are to minimize false positives and maximize prediction accuracy.

A Comparative Study of Anomaly Detection Techniques for Smart City Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Garcia-Font, Victor; Garrigues, Carles; Rifà-Pous, Helena

2016-06-13

In many countries around the world, smart cities are becoming a reality. These cities contribute to improving citizens' quality of life by providing services that are normally based on data extracted from wireless sensor networks (WSN) and other elements of the Internet of Things. Additionally, public administration uses these smart city data to increase its efficiency, to reduce costs and to provide additional services. However, the information received at smart city data centers is not always accurate, because WSNs are sometimes prone to error and are exposed to physical and computer attacks. In this article, we use real data from the smart city of Barcelona to simulate WSNs and implement typical attacks. Then, we compare frequently used anomaly detection techniques to disclose these attacks. We evaluate the algorithms under different requirements on the available network status information. As a result of this study, we conclude that one-class Support Vector Machines is the most appropriate technique. We achieve a true positive rate at least 56% higher than the rates achieved with the other compared techniques in a scenario with a maximum false positive rate of 5% and a 26% higher in a scenario with a false positive rate of 15%.

A Comparative Study of Anomaly Detection Techniques for Smart City Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Garcia-Font, Victor; Garrigues, Carles; Rifà-Pous, Helena

2016-01-01

In many countries around the world, smart cities are becoming a reality. These cities contribute to improving citizens’ quality of life by providing services that are normally based on data extracted from wireless sensor networks (WSN) and other elements of the Internet of Things. Additionally, public administration uses these smart city data to increase its efficiency, to reduce costs and to provide additional services. However, the information received at smart city data centers is not always accurate, because WSNs are sometimes prone to error and are exposed to physical and computer attacks. In this article, we use real data from the smart city of Barcelona to simulate WSNs and implement typical attacks. Then, we compare frequently used anomaly detection techniques to disclose these attacks. We evaluate the algorithms under different requirements on the available network status information. As a result of this study, we conclude that one-class Support Vector Machines is the most appropriate technique. We achieve a true positive rate at least 56% higher than the rates achieved with the other compared techniques in a scenario with a maximum false positive rate of 5% and a 26% higher in a scenario with a false positive rate of 15%. PMID:27304957

A novel onset detection technique for brain-computer interfaces using sound-production related cognitive tasks in simulated-online system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, YoungJae; Sepulveda, Francisco

2017-02-01

Objective. Self-paced EEG-based BCIs (SP-BCIs) have traditionally been avoided due to two sources of uncertainty: (1) precisely when an intentional command is sent by the brain, i.e., the command onset detection problem, and (2) how different the intentional command is when compared to non-specific (or idle) states. Performance evaluation is also a problem and there are no suitable standard metrics available. In this paper we attempted to tackle these issues. Approach. Self-paced covert sound-production cognitive tasks (i.e., high pitch and siren-like sounds) were used to distinguish between intentional commands (IC) and idle states. The IC states were chosen for their ease of execution and negligible overlap with common cognitive states. Band power and a digital wavelet transform were used for feature extraction, and the Davies-Bouldin index was used for feature selection. Classification was performed using linear discriminant analysis. Main results. Performance was evaluated under offline and simulated-online conditions. For the latter, a performance score called true-false-positive (TFP) rate, ranging from 0 (poor) to 100 (perfect), was created to take into account both classification performance and onset timing errors. Averaging the results from the best performing IC task for all seven participants, an 77.7% true-positive (TP) rate was achieved in offline testing. For simulated-online analysis the best IC average TFP score was 76.67% (87.61% TP rate, 4.05% false-positive rate). Significance. Results were promising when compared to previous IC onset detection studies using motor imagery, in which best TP rates were reported as 72.0% and 79.7%, and which, crucially, did not take timing errors into account. Moreover, based on our literature review, there is no previous covert sound-production onset detection system for spBCIs. Results showed that the proposed onset detection technique and TFP performance metric have good potential for use in SP-BCIs.

Multiple Hypothesis Testing for Experimental Gingivitis Based on Wilcoxon Signed Rank Statistics

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; Sen, Pranab K.; Offenbacher, Steven

2011-01-01

Dental research often involves repeated multivariate outcomes on a small number of subjects for which there is interest in identifying outcomes that exhibit change in their levels over time as well as to characterize the nature of that change. In particular, periodontal research often involves the analysis of molecular mediators of inflammation for which multivariate parametric methods are highly sensitive to outliers and deviations from Gaussian assumptions. In such settings, nonparametric methods may be favored over parametric ones. Additionally, there is a need for statistical methods that control an overall error rate for multiple hypothesis testing. We review univariate and multivariate nonparametric hypothesis tests and apply them to longitudinal data to assess changes over time in 31 biomarkers measured from the gingival crevicular fluid in 22 subjects whereby gingivitis was induced by temporarily withholding tooth brushing. To identify biomarkers that can be induced to change, multivariate Wilcoxon signed rank tests for a set of four summary measures based upon area under the curve are applied for each biomarker and compared to their univariate counterparts. Multiple hypothesis testing methods with choice of control of the false discovery rate or strong control of the family-wise error rate are examined. PMID:21984957

On the challenges of drawing conclusions from p-values just below 0.05

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

In recent years, researchers have attempted to provide an indication of the prevalence of inflated Type 1 error rates by analyzing the distribution of p-values in the published literature. De Winter & Dodou (2015) analyzed the distribution (and its change over time) of a large number of p-values automatically extracted from abstracts in the scientific literature. They concluded there is a ‘surge of p-values between 0.041–0.049 in recent decades’ which ‘suggests (but does not prove) questionable research practices have increased over the past 25 years.’ I show the changes in the ratio of fractions of p-values between 0.041–0.049 over the years are better explained by assuming the average power has decreased over time. Furthermore, I propose that their observation that p-values just below 0.05 increase more strongly than p-values above 0.05 can be explained by an increase in publication bias (or the file drawer effect) over the years (cf. Fanelli, 2012; Pautasso, 2010, which has led to a relative decrease of ‘marginally significant’ p-values in abstracts in the literature (instead of an increase in p-values just below 0.05). I explain why researchers analyzing large numbers of p-values need to relate their assumptions to a model of p-value distributions that takes into account the average power of the performed studies, the ratio of true positives to false positives in the literature, the effects of publication bias, and the Type 1 error rate (and possible mechanisms through which it has inflated). Finally, I discuss why publication bias and underpowered studies might be a bigger problem for science than inflated Type 1 error rates, and explain the challenges when attempting to draw conclusions about inflated Type 1 error rates from a large heterogeneous set of p-values. PMID:26246976

A novel gamma-fitting statistical method for anti-drug antibody assays to establish assay cut points for data with non-normal distribution.

PubMed

Schlain, Brian; Amaravadi, Lakshmi; Donley, Jean; Wickramasekera, Ananda; Bennett, Donald; Subramanyam, Meena

2010-01-31

In recent years there has been growing recognition of the impact of anti-drug or anti-therapeutic antibodies (ADAs, ATAs) on the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic behavior of the drug, which ultimately affects drug exposure and activity. These anti-drug antibodies can also impact safety of the therapeutic by inducing a range of reactions from hypersensitivity to neutralization of the activity of an endogenous protein. Assessments of immunogenicity, therefore, are critically dependent on the bioanalytical method used to test samples, in which a positive versus negative reactivity is determined by a statistically derived cut point based on the distribution of drug naïve samples. For non-normally distributed data, a novel gamma-fitting method for obtaining assay cut points is presented. Non-normal immunogenicity data distributions, which tend to be unimodal and positively skewed, can often be modeled by 3-parameter gamma fits. Under a gamma regime, gamma based cut points were found to be more accurate (closer to their targeted false positive rates) compared to normal or log-normal methods and more precise (smaller standard errors of cut point estimators) compared with the nonparametric percentile method. Under a gamma regime, normal theory based methods for estimating cut points targeting a 5% false positive rate were found in computer simulation experiments to have, on average, false positive rates ranging from 6.2 to 8.3% (or positive biases between +1.2 and +3.3%) with bias decreasing with the magnitude of the gamma shape parameter. The log-normal fits tended, on average, to underestimate false positive rates with negative biases as large a -2.3% with absolute bias decreasing with the shape parameter. These results were consistent with the well known fact that gamma distributions become less skewed and closer to a normal distribution as their shape parameters increase. Inflated false positive rates, especially in a screening assay, shifts the emphasis to confirm test results in a subsequent test (confirmatory assay). On the other hand, deflated false positive rates in the case of screening immunogenicity assays will not meet the minimum 5% false positive target as proposed in the immunogenicity assay guidance white papers. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supporting diagnosis of attention-deficit hyperactive disorder with novelty detection.

PubMed

Lee, Hyoung-Joo; Cho, Sungzoon; Shin, Min-Sup

2008-03-01

Computerized continuous performance test (CPT) is a widely used diagnostic tool for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It measures the number of correctly detected stimuli as well as response times. Typically, when calculating a cut-off score for discriminating between normal and abnormal, only the normal children's data are collected. Then the average and standard deviation of each measure or variable is computed. If any of variables is larger than 2 sigma above the average, that child is diagnosed as abnormal. We will call this approach as "T-score 70" classifier. However, its performance has a lot to be desired due to a high false negative error. In order to improve the classification accuracy we propose to use novelty detection approaches for supporting ADHD diagnosis. Novelty detection is a model building framework where a classifier is constructed using only one class of training data and a new input pattern is classified according to its similarity to the training data. A total of eight novelty detectors are introduced and applied to our ADHD datasets collected from two modes of tests, visual and auditory. They are evaluated and compared with the T-score model on validation datasets in terms of false positive and negative error rates, and area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AuROC). Experimental results show that the cut-off score of 70 is suboptimal which leads to a low false positive error but a very high false negative error. A few novelty detectors such as Parzen density estimators yield much more balanced classification performances. Moreover, most novelty detectors outperform the T-score method for most age groups statistically with a significance level of 1% in terms of AuROC. In particular, we recommend the Parzen and Gaussian density estimators, kernel principal component analysis, one-class support vector machine, and K-means clustering novelty detector which can improve upon the T-score method on average by at least 30% for the visual test and 40% for the auditory test. In addition, their performances are relatively stable over various parameter values as long as they are within reasonable ranges. The proposed novelty detection approaches can replace the T-score method which has been considered the "gold standard" for supporting ADHD diagnosis. Furthermore, they can be applied to other psychological tests where only normal data are available.

Quality assuring HIV point of care testing using whole blood samples.

PubMed

Dare-Smith, Raellene; Badrick, Tony; Cunningham, Philip; Kesson, Alison; Badman, Susan

2016-08-01

The Royal College of Pathologists Australasia Quality Assurance Programs (RCPAQAP), have offered dedicated external quality assurance (EQA) for HIV point of care testing (PoCT) since 2011. Prior to this, EQA for these tests was available within the comprehensive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) module. EQA testing for HIV has typically involved the supply of serum or plasma, while in the clinic or community based settings HIV PoCT is generally performed using whole blood obtained by capillary finger-stick collection. RCPAQAP has offered EQA for HIV PoCT using stabilised whole blood since 2014. A total of eight surveys have been undertaken over a period of 2 years from 2014 to 2015. Of the 962 responses received, the overall consensus rate was found to be 98% (941/962). A total of 21 errors were detected. The majority of errors were attributable to false reactive HIV p24 antigen results (9/21, 43%), followed by false reactive HIV antibody results (8/21, 38%). There were 4/21 (19%) false negative HIV antibody results and no false negative HIV p24 antigen results reported. Overall performance was observed to vary minimally between surveys, from a low of 94% up to 99% concordant. Encouraging levels of testing proficiency for HIV PoCT are indicated by these data, but they also confirm the need for HIV PoCT sites to participate in external quality assurance programs to ensure the ongoing provision of high quality patient care. Copyright © 2016 Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia. All rights reserved.

5 CFR 1601.34 - Error correction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Error correction. 1601.34 Section 1601.34 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL RETIREMENT THRIFT INVESTMENT BOARD PARTICIPANTS' CHOICES OF TSP FUNDS... in the wrong investment fund, will be corrected in accordance with the error correction regulations...

5 CFR 1601.34 - Error correction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Error correction. 1601.34 Section 1601.34 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL RETIREMENT THRIFT INVESTMENT BOARD PARTICIPANTS' CHOICES OF TSP FUNDS... in the wrong investment fund, will be corrected in accordance with the error correction regulations...

Combining Gravitational Wave Events with their Electromagnetic Counterparts: A Realistic Joint False-Alarm Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackley, Kendall; Eikenberry, Stephen; Klimenko, Sergey; LIGO Team

2017-01-01

We present a false-alarm rate for a joint detection of gravitational wave (GW) events and associated electromagnetic (EM) counterparts for Advanced LIGO and Virgo (LV) observations during the first years of operation. Using simulated GW events and their recostructed probability skymaps, we tile over the error regions using sets of archival wide-field telescope survey images and recover the number of astrophysical transients to be expected during LV-EM followup. With the known GW event injection coordinates we inject artificial electromagnetic (EM) sources at that site based on theoretical and observational models on a one-to-one basis. We calculate the EM false-alarm probability using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm based on shapelet analysis which has shown to be a strong discriminator between astrophysical transients and image artifacts while reducing the set of transients to be manually vetted by five orders of magnitude. We also show the performance of our method in context with other machine-learned transient classification and reduction algorithms, showing comparability without the need for a large set of training data opening the possibility for next-generation telescopes to take advantage of this pipeline for LV-EM followup missions.

A Modified Protocol for Color Vision Screening Using Ishihara.

PubMed

Chorley, Adrian C

2015-08-01

The Ishihara plates are commonly used as an initial occupational screening test for color vision. While effective at detecting red-green deficiencies, the color deficient subject can learn the test using different techniques. Some medical standards such as the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) require plate randomization and apply a stricter pass/fail requirement than suggested by Ishihara. This has been reported to increase the false positive rate up to ∼50%. Two modifications to the Ishihara protocol are investigated. These involved allowing subjects a second attempt where one or two reading errors were made and the presentation of rotated Ishihara plates. A reduction of false positive rate to 5.9% was found. Correct identification of certain rotated Ishihara plates was not affected. By using a modified Ishihara protocol, fewer color normal subjects would require unnecessary advanced color vision examination. Further, additional safeguards would be in place to ensure that no subject with a color vision deficiency could pass the Ishihara test.

A cascaded coding scheme for error control and its performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Kasami, Tadao; Fujiwara, Tohru; Takata, Toyoo

1986-01-01

A coding scheme is investigated for error control in data communication systems. The scheme is obtained by cascading two error correcting codes, called the inner and outer codes. The error performance of the scheme is analyzed for a binary symmetric channel with bit error rate epsilon <1/2. It is shown that if the inner and outer codes are chosen properly, extremely high reliability can be attained even for a high channel bit error rate. Various specific example schemes with inner codes ranging form high rates to very low rates and Reed-Solomon codes as inner codes are considered, and their error probabilities are evaluated. They all provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit error rates. Several example schemes are being considered by NASA for satellite and spacecraft down link error control.

Identifying significant gene‐environment interactions using a combination of screening testing and hierarchical false discovery rate control

PubMed Central

Shen, Li; Saykin, Andrew J.; Williams, Scott M.; Moore, Jason H.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Although gene‐environment (G× E) interactions play an important role in many biological systems, detecting these interactions within genome‐wide data can be challenging due to the loss in statistical power incurred by multiple hypothesis correction. To address the challenge of poor power and the limitations of existing multistage methods, we recently developed a screening‐testing approach for G× E interaction detection that combines elastic net penalized regression with joint estimation to support a single omnibus test for the presence of G× E interactions. In our original work on this technique, however, we did not assess type I error control or power and evaluated the method using just a single, small bladder cancer data set. In this paper, we extend the original method in two important directions and provide a more rigorous performance evaluation. First, we introduce a hierarchical false discovery rate approach to formally assess the significance of individual G× E interactions. Second, to support the analysis of truly genome‐wide data sets, we incorporate a score statistic‐based prescreening step to reduce the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms prior to fitting the first stage penalized regression model. To assess the statistical properties of our method, we compare the type I error rate and statistical power of our approach with competing techniques using both simple simulation designs as well as designs based on real disease architectures. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of our approach to identify biologically plausible SNP‐education interactions relative to Alzheimer's disease status using genome‐wide association study data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). PMID:27578615

Coordinate based random effect size meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies.

PubMed

Tench, C R; Tanasescu, Radu; Constantinescu, C S; Auer, D P; Cottam, W J

2017-06-01

Low power in neuroimaging studies can make them difficult to interpret, and Coordinate based meta-analysis (CBMA) may go some way to mitigating this issue. CBMA has been used in many analyses to detect where published functional MRI or voxel-based morphometry studies testing similar hypotheses report significant summary results (coordinates) consistently. Only the reported coordinates and possibly t statistics are analysed, and statistical significance of clusters is determined by coordinate density. Here a method of performing coordinate based random effect size meta-analysis and meta-regression is introduced. The algorithm (ClusterZ) analyses both coordinates and reported t statistic or Z score, standardised by the number of subjects. Statistical significance is determined not by coordinate density, but by a random effects meta-analyses of reported effects performed cluster-wise using standard statistical methods and taking account of censoring inherent in the published summary results. Type 1 error control is achieved using the false cluster discovery rate (FCDR), which is based on the false discovery rate. This controls both the family wise error rate under the null hypothesis that coordinates are randomly drawn from a standard stereotaxic space, and the proportion of significant clusters that are expected under the null. Such control is necessary to avoid propagating and even amplifying the very issues motivating the meta-analysis in the first place. ClusterZ is demonstrated on both numerically simulated data and on real data from reports of grey matter loss in multiple sclerosis (MS) and syndromes suggestive of MS, and of painful stimulus in healthy controls. The software implementation is available to download and use freely. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Comparative studies of serological typing and HLA-A, B antigen genotyping with PCR using sequence-specific primers].

PubMed

Wu, Da-lin; Ling, Han-xin; Tang, Hao

2004-11-01

To evaluate the accuracy of PCR with sequence-specific primers (PCR-SSP) for HLA-I genotyping and analyze the causes of the errors occurring in the genotyping. DNA samples and were obtained from 34 clinical patients, and serological typing with monoclonal antibody (mAb) and HLA-A and, B antigen genotyping with PCR-SSP were performed. HLA-A and, B alleles were successfully typed in 34 clinical samples by mAb and PCR-SSP. No false positive or false negative results were found, and the erroneous and missed diagnosis rates were obviously higher in serological detection, being 23.5% for HLA-A and 26.5% for HLA-B. Error or confusion was more likely to occur in the antigens of A2 and A68, A32 and A33, B5, B60 and B61. DNA typing for HLA-I class (A, B antigens) by PCR-SSP has high resolution, high specificity, and good reproducibility, which is more suitable for clinical application than serological typing. PCR-SSP may accurately detect the alleles that are easily missed or mistaken in serological typing.

An audit of intraoperative frozen section in Johor.

PubMed

Khoo, J J

2004-03-01

A 4-year-review was carried out on intraoperative frozen section consultations in Sultanah Aminah Hospital, Johor Bahru. Two hundred and fifteen specimens were received from 79 patients in the period between January 1999 and December 2002. An average of 2.72 specimens per patient was received. The overall diagnostic accuracy was high, 97.56%. The diagnoses were deferred in 4.65% of the specimens. False positive diagnoses were made in 3 specimens (1.46%) and false negative diagnoses in 2 specimens (0.98%). This gave an error rate of 2.44%. The main cause of error was incorrect interpretation of the pathologic findings. In the present study, frozen sections showed good sensitivity (97.98%) and specificity (97.16%). Despite its limitations, frozen section is still generally considered to be an accurate mode of intraoperative consultation to assist the surgeon in deciding the best therapeutic approach for his patient at the operating table. The use of frozen section with proper indications was cost-effective as it helped lower the number of reoperations. An audit of intraoperative frozen section from time to time serves as part of an ongoing quality assurance program and should be recommended where the service is available.

Accuracy of vaginal symptom self-diagnosis algorithms for deployed military women.

PubMed

Ryan-Wenger, Nancy A; Neal, Jeremy L; Jones, Ashley S; Lowe, Nancy K

2010-01-01

Deployed military women have an increased risk for development of vaginitis due to extreme temperatures, primitive sanitation, hygiene and laundry facilities, and unavailable or unacceptable healthcare resources. The Women in the Military Self-Diagnosis (WMSD) and treatment kit was developed as a field-expedient solution to this problem. The primary study aims were to evaluate the accuracy of women's self-diagnosis of vaginal symptoms and eight diagnostic algorithms and to predict potential self-medication omission and commission error rates. Participants included 546 active duty, deployable Army (43.3%) and Navy (53.6%) women with vaginal symptoms who sought healthcare at troop medical clinics on base.In the clinic lavatory, women conducted a self-diagnosis using a sterile cotton swab to obtain vaginal fluid, a FemExam card to measure positive or negative pH and amines, and the investigator-developed WMSD Decision-Making Guide. Potential self-diagnoses were "bacterial infection" (bacterial vaginosis [BV] and/or trichomonas vaginitis [TV]), "yeast infection" (candida vaginitis [CV]), "no infection/normal," or "unclear." The Affirm VPIII laboratory reference standard was used to detect clinically significant amounts of vaginal fluid DNA for organisms associated with BV, TV, and CV. Women's self-diagnostic accuracy was 56% for BV/TV and 69.2% for CV. False-positives would have led to a self-medication commission error rate of 20.3% for BV/TV and 8% for CV. Potential self-medication omission error rates due to false-negatives were 23.7% for BV/TV and 24.8% for CV. The positive predictive value of diagnostic algorithms ranged from 0% to 78.1% for BV/TV and 41.7% for CV. The algorithms were based on clinical diagnostic standards. The nonspecific nature of vaginal symptoms, mixed infections, and a faulty device intended to measure vaginal pH and amines explain why none of the algorithms reached the goal of 95% accuracy. The next prototype of the WMSD kit will not include nonspecific vaginal signs and symptoms in favor of recently available point-of-care devices that identify antigens or enzymes of the causative BV, TV, and CV organisms.

Analyzing False Positives of Four Questions in the Force Concept Inventory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yasuda, Jun-ichro; Mae, Naohiro; Hull, Michael M.; Taniguchi, Masa-aki

2018-01-01

In this study, we analyze the systematic error from false positives of the Force Concept Inventory (FCI). We compare the systematic errors of question 6 (Q.6), Q.7, and Q.16, for which clearly erroneous reasoning has been found, with Q.5, for which clearly erroneous reasoning has not been found. We determine whether or not a correct response to a…

Conditional Outlier Detection for Clinical Alerting

PubMed Central

Hauskrecht, Milos; Valko, Michal; Batal, Iyad; Clermont, Gilles; Visweswaran, Shyam; Cooper, Gregory F.

2010-01-01

We develop and evaluate a data-driven approach for detecting unusual (anomalous) patient-management actions using past patient cases stored in an electronic health record (EHR) system. Our hypothesis is that patient-management actions that are unusual with respect to past patients may be due to a potential error and that it is worthwhile to raise an alert if such a condition is encountered. We evaluate this hypothesis using data obtained from the electronic health records of 4,486 post-cardiac surgical patients. We base the evaluation on the opinions of a panel of experts. The results support that anomaly-based alerting can have reasonably low false alert rates and that stronger anomalies are correlated with higher alert rates. PMID:21346986

Conditional outlier detection for clinical alerting.

PubMed

Hauskrecht, Milos; Valko, Michal; Batal, Iyad; Clermont, Gilles; Visweswaran, Shyam; Cooper, Gregory F

2010-11-13

We develop and evaluate a data-driven approach for detecting unusual (anomalous) patient-management actions using past patient cases stored in an electronic health record (EHR) system. Our hypothesis is that patient-management actions that are unusual with respect to past patients may be due to a potential error and that it is worthwhile to raise an alert if such a condition is encountered. We evaluate this hypothesis using data obtained from the electronic health records of 4,486 post-cardiac surgical patients. We base the evaluation on the opinions of a panel of experts. The results support that anomaly-based alerting can have reasonably low false alert rates and that stronger anomalies are correlated with higher alert rates.

Statistical testing and power analysis for brain-wide association study.

PubMed

Gong, Weikang; Wan, Lin; Lu, Wenlian; Ma, Liang; Cheng, Fan; Cheng, Wei; Grünewald, Stefan; Feng, Jianfeng

2018-04-05

The identification of connexel-wise associations, which involves examining functional connectivities between pairwise voxels across the whole brain, is both statistically and computationally challenging. Although such a connexel-wise methodology has recently been adopted by brain-wide association studies (BWAS) to identify connectivity changes in several mental disorders, such as schizophrenia, autism and depression, the multiple correction and power analysis methods designed specifically for connexel-wise analysis are still lacking. Therefore, we herein report the development of a rigorous statistical framework for connexel-wise significance testing based on the Gaussian random field theory. It includes controlling the family-wise error rate (FWER) of multiple hypothesis testings using topological inference methods, and calculating power and sample size for a connexel-wise study. Our theoretical framework can control the false-positive rate accurately, as validated empirically using two resting-state fMRI datasets. Compared with Bonferroni correction and false discovery rate (FDR), it can reduce false-positive rate and increase statistical power by appropriately utilizing the spatial information of fMRI data. Importantly, our method bypasses the need of non-parametric permutation to correct for multiple comparison, thus, it can efficiently tackle large datasets with high resolution fMRI images. The utility of our method is shown in a case-control study. Our approach can identify altered functional connectivities in a major depression disorder dataset, whereas existing methods fail. A software package is available at https://github.com/weikanggong/BWAS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Error minimizing algorithms for nearest eighbor classifiers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, Reid B; Hush, Don; Zimmer, G. Beate

2011-01-03

Stack Filters define a large class of discrete nonlinear filter first introd uced in image and signal processing for noise removal. In recent years we have suggested their application to classification problems, and investigated their relationship to other types of discrete classifiers such as Decision Trees. In this paper we focus on a continuous domain version of Stack Filter Classifiers which we call Ordered Hypothesis Machines (OHM), and investigate their relationship to Nearest Neighbor classifiers. We show that OHM classifiers provide a novel framework in which to train Nearest Neighbor type classifiers by minimizing empirical error based loss functions. Wemore » use the framework to investigate a new cost sensitive loss function that allows us to train a Nearest Neighbor type classifier for low false alarm rate applications. We report results on both synthetic data and real-world image data.« less

An educational and audit tool to reduce prescribing error in intensive care.

PubMed

Thomas, A N; Boxall, E M; Laha, S K; Day, A J; Grundy, D

2008-10-01

To reduce prescribing errors in an intensive care unit by providing prescriber education in tutorials, ward-based teaching and feedback in 3-monthly cycles with each new group of trainee medical staff. Prescribing audits were conducted three times in each 3-month cycle, once pretraining, once post-training and a final audit after 6 weeks. The audit information was fed back to prescribers with their correct prescribing rates, rates for individual error types and total error rates together with anonymised information about other prescribers' error rates. The percentage of prescriptions with errors decreased over each 3-month cycle (pretraining 25%, 19%, (one missing data point), post-training 23%, 6%, 11%, final audit 7%, 3%, 5% (p<0.0005)). The total number of prescriptions and error rates varied widely between trainees (data collection one; cycle two: range of prescriptions written: 1-61, median 18; error rate: 0-100%; median: 15%). Prescriber education and feedback reduce manual prescribing errors in intensive care.

A Six Sigma Trial For Reduction of Error Rates in Pathology Laboratory.

PubMed

Tosuner, Zeynep; Gücin, Zühal; Kiran, Tuğçe; Büyükpinarbaşili, Nur; Turna, Seval; Taşkiran, Olcay; Arici, Dilek Sema

2016-01-01

A major target of quality assurance is the minimization of error rates in order to enhance patient safety. Six Sigma is a method targeting zero error (3.4 errors per million events) used in industry. The five main principles of Six Sigma are defining, measuring, analysis, improvement and control. Using this methodology, the causes of errors can be examined and process improvement strategies can be identified. The aim of our study was to evaluate the utility of Six Sigma methodology in error reduction in our pathology laboratory. The errors encountered between April 2014 and April 2015 were recorded by the pathology personnel. Error follow-up forms were examined by the quality control supervisor, administrative supervisor and the head of the department. Using Six Sigma methodology, the rate of errors was measured monthly and the distribution of errors at the preanalytic, analytic and postanalytical phases was analysed. Improvement strategies were reclaimed in the monthly intradepartmental meetings and the control of the units with high error rates was provided. Fifty-six (52.4%) of 107 recorded errors in total were at the pre-analytic phase. Forty-five errors (42%) were recorded as analytical and 6 errors (5.6%) as post-analytical. Two of the 45 errors were major irrevocable errors. The error rate was 6.8 per million in the first half of the year and 1.3 per million in the second half, decreasing by 79.77%. The Six Sigma trial in our pathology laboratory provided the reduction of the error rates mainly in the pre-analytic and analytic phases.

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Waggoner, Bruce; Bryant, Larry

2014-01-01

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Detecting Signatures of GRACE Sensor Errors in Range-Rate Residuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, S.; Flury, J.

2016-12-01

In order to reach the accuracy of the GRACE baseline, predicted earlier from the design simulations, efforts are ongoing since a decade. GRACE error budget is highly dominated by noise from sensors, dealiasing models and modeling errors. GRACE range-rate residuals contain these errors. Thus, their analysis provides an insight to understand the individual contribution to the error budget. Hence, we analyze the range-rate residuals with focus on contribution of sensor errors due to mis-pointing and bad ranging performance in GRACE solutions. For the analysis of pointing errors, we consider two different reprocessed attitude datasets with differences in pointing performance. Then range-rate residuals are computed from these two datasetsrespectively and analysed. We further compare the system noise of four K-and Ka- band frequencies of the two spacecrafts, with range-rate residuals. Strong signatures of mis-pointing errors can be seen in the range-rate residuals. Also, correlation between range frequency noise and range-rate residuals are seen.

Re-adjusting the cut-off score of the Korean version of the Childhood Autism Rating Scale for high-functioning individuals with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Kwon, Hyuk-Jin; Yoo, Hee-Jeong; Kim, Joo-Hyun; Noh, Dong-Hyun; Sunwoo, Hyun-Jung; Jeon, Ye Seul; Lee, Sang-Youn; Jo, Ye-Ul; Bong, Gui-Young

2017-10-01

The current cut-off score of the Korean version of the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (K-CARS) does not seem to be sensitive enough to precisely diagnose high-functioning autism. The aim of this study was to identify the optimal cut-off score of K-CARS for diagnosing high-functioning individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). A total of 329 participants were assessed by the Korean versions of the Autism Diagnostic Interview - Revised (K-ADI-R), Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (K-ADOS), and K-CARS. IQ and Social Maturity Scale scores were also obtained. The true positive and false negative rates of K-CARS were 77.2% and 22.8%, respectively. Verbal IQ (VIQ) and Social Quotient (SQ) were significant predictors of misclassification. The false negative rate increased to 36.0% from 19.8% when VIQ was >69.5, and the rate increased to 44.1% for participants with VIQ > 69.5 and SQ > 75.5. In addition, if SQ was >83.5, the false negative rate increased to 46.7%, even if the participant's VIQ was ≤69.5. Optimal cut-off scores were 28.5 (for VIQ ≤ 69.5 and SQ ≤ 75.5), 24.25 (for VIQ > 69.5 and SQ > 75.5), and 24.5 (for SQ > 83.5), respectively. The likelihood of a false negative error increases when K-CARS is used to diagnose high-functioning autism and Asperger's syndrome. For subjects with ASD and substantial verbal ability, the cut-off score for K-CARS should be re-adjusted and/or supplementary diagnostic tools might be needed to enhance diagnostic accuracy for ASD. © 2017 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2017 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Source misattributions and false recognition errors: examining the role of perceptual resemblance and imagery generation processes.

PubMed

Foley, Mary Ann; Bays, Rebecca Brooke; Foy, Jeffrey; Woodfield, Mila

2015-01-01

In three experiments, we examine the extent to which participants' memory errors are affected by the perceptual features of an encoding series and imagery generation processes. Perceptual features were examined by manipulating the features associated with individual items as well as the relationships among items. An encoding instruction manipulation was included to examine the effects of explicit requests to generate images. In all three experiments, participants falsely claimed to have seen pictures of items presented as words, committing picture misattribution errors. These misattribution errors were exaggerated when the perceptual resemblance between pictures and images was relatively high (Experiment 1) and when explicit requests to generate images were omitted from encoding instructions (Experiments 1 and 2). When perceptual cues made the thematic relationships among items salient, the level and pattern of misattribution errors were also affected (Experiments 2 and 3). Results address alternative views about the nature of internal representations resulting in misattribution errors and refute the idea that these errors reflect only participants' general impressions or beliefs about what was seen.

Aged-related Neural Changes during Memory Conjunction Errors

PubMed Central

Giovanello, Kelly S.; Kensinger, Elizabeth A.; Wong, Alana T.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2013-01-01

Human behavioral studies demonstrate that healthy aging is often accompanied by increases in memory distortions or errors. Here we used event-related functional MRI to examine the neural basis of age-related memory distortions. We utilized the memory conjunction error paradigm, a laboratory procedure known to elicit high levels of memory errors. For older adults, right parahippocampal gyrus showed significantly greater activity during false than during accurate retrieval. We observed no regions in which activity was greater during false than during accurate retrieval for young adults. Young adults, however, showed significantly greater activity than old adults during accurate retrieval in right hippocampus. By contrast, older adults demonstrated greater activity than young adults during accurate retrieval in right inferior and middle prefrontal cortex. These data are consistent with the notion that age-related memory conjunction errors arise from dysfunction of hippocampal system mechanisms, rather than impairments in frontally-mediated monitoring processes. PMID:19445606

Bladder cancer diagnosis with CT urography: test characteristics and reasons for false-positive and false-negative results.

PubMed

Trinh, Tony W; Glazer, Daniel I; Sadow, Cheryl A; Sahni, V Anik; Geller, Nina L; Silverman, Stuart G

2018-03-01

To determine test characteristics of CT urography for detecting bladder cancer in patients with hematuria and those undergoing surveillance, and to analyze reasons for false-positive and false-negative results. A HIPAA-compliant, IRB-approved retrospective review of reports from 1623 CT urograms between 10/2010 and 12/31/2013 was performed. 710 examinations for hematuria or bladder cancer history were compared to cystoscopy performed within 6 months. Reference standard was surgical pathology or 1-year minimum clinical follow-up. False-positive and false-negative examinations were reviewed to determine reasons for errors. Ninety-five bladder cancers were detected. CT urography accuracy: was 91.5% (650/710), sensitivity 86.3% (82/95), specificity 92.4% (568/615), positive predictive value 63.6% (82/129), and negative predictive value was 97.8% (568/581). Of 43 false positives, the majority of interpretation errors were due to benign prostatic hyperplasia (n = 12), trabeculated bladder (n = 9), and treatment changes (n = 8). Other causes include blood clots, mistaken normal anatomy, infectious/inflammatory changes, or had no cystoscopic correlate. Of 13 false negatives, 11 were due to technique, one to a large urinary residual, one to artifact. There were no errors in perception. CT urography is an accurate test for diagnosing bladder cancer; however, in protocols relying predominantly on excretory phase images, overall sensitivity remains insufficient to obviate cystoscopy. Awareness of bladder cancer mimics may reduce false-positive results. Improvements in CTU technique may reduce false-negative results.

A cascaded coding scheme for error control and its performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1986-01-01

A coding scheme for error control in data communication systems is investigated. The scheme is obtained by cascading two error correcting codes, called the inner and the outer codes. The error performance of the scheme is analyzed for a binary symmetric channel with bit error rate epsilon < 1/2. It is shown that, if the inner and outer codes are chosen properly, extremely high reliability can be attained even for a high channel bit error rate. Various specific example schemes with inner codes ranging from high rates to very low rates and Reed-Solomon codes are considered, and their probabilities are evaluated. They all provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit error rates, say 0.1 to 0.01. Several example schemes are being considered by NASA for satellite and spacecraft down link error control.

Newborn screening: a review of history, recent advancements, and future perspectives in the era of next generation sequencing.

PubMed

Almannai, Mohammed; Marom, Ronit; Sutton, V Reid

2016-12-01

The purpose of this review is to summarize the development and recent advancements of newborn screening. Early initiation of medical care has modified the outcome for many disorders that were previously associated with high morbidity (such as cystic fibrosis, primary immune deficiencies, and inborn errors of metabolism) or with significant neurodevelopmental disabilities (such as phenylketonuria and congenital hypothyroidism). The new era of mass spectrometry and next generation sequencing enables the expansion of the newborn screen panel, and will help to address technical issues such as turnaround time, and decreasing false-positive and false-negative rates for the testing. The newborn screening program is a successful public health initiative that facilitates early diagnosis of treatable disorders to reduce long-term morbidity and mortality.

Short communication: Prediction of retention pay-off using a machine learning algorithm.

PubMed

Shahinfar, Saleh; Kalantari, Afshin S; Cabrera, Victor; Weigel, Kent

2014-05-01

Replacement decisions have a major effect on dairy farm profitability. Dynamic programming (DP) has been widely studied to find the optimal replacement policies in dairy cattle. However, DP models are computationally intensive and might not be practical for daily decision making. Hence, the ability of applying machine learning on a prerun DP model to provide fast and accurate predictions of nonlinear and intercorrelated variables makes it an ideal methodology. Milk class (1 to 5), lactation number (1 to 9), month in milk (1 to 20), and month of pregnancy (0 to 9) were used to describe all cows in a herd in a DP model. Twenty-seven scenarios based on all combinations of 3 levels (base, 20% above, and 20% below) of milk production, milk price, and replacement cost were solved with the DP model, resulting in a data set of 122,716 records, each with a calculated retention pay-off (RPO). Then, a machine learning model tree algorithm was used to mimic the evaluated RPO with DP. The correlation coefficient factor was used to observe the concordance of RPO evaluated by DP and RPO predicted by the model tree. The obtained correlation coefficient was 0.991, with a corresponding value of 0.11 for relative absolute error. At least 100 instances were required per model constraint, resulting in 204 total equations (models). When these models were used for binary classification of positive and negative RPO, error rates were 1% false negatives and 9% false positives. Applying this trained model from simulated data for prediction of RPO for 102 actual replacement records from the University of Wisconsin-Madison dairy herd resulted in a 0.994 correlation with 0.10 relative absolute error rate. Overall results showed that model tree has a potential to be used in conjunction with DP to assist farmers in their replacement decisions. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupancy models for data with false positive and false negative errors and heterogeneity across sites and surveys

Treesearch

Paige F.B. Ferguson; Michael J. Conroy; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman; Nigel Yoccoz

2015-01-01

False positive detections, such as species misidentifications, occur in ecological data, although many models do not account for them. Consequently, these models are expected to generate biased inference.The main challenge in an analysis of data with false positives is to distinguish false positive and false negative...

Linguistic Determinants of the Difficulty of True-False Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Candida C.; Peterson, James L.

1976-01-01

Adults read a prose passage and responded to passages based on it which were either true or false and were phrased either affirmatively or negatively. True negatives yielded most errors, followed in order by false negatives, true affirmatives, and false affirmatives. (Author/RC)

A Simple Exact Error Rate Analysis for DS-CDMA with Arbitrary Pulse Shape in Flat Nakagami Fading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Azizur; Sasaki, Shigenobu; Kikuchi, Hisakazu; Harada, Hiroshi; Kato, Shuzo

A simple exact error rate analysis is presented for random binary direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) considering a general pulse shape and flat Nakagami fading channel. First of all, a simple model is developed for the multiple access interference (MAI). Based on this, a simple exact expression of the characteristic function (CF) of MAI is developed in a straight forward manner. Finally, an exact expression of error rate is obtained following the CF method of error rate analysis. The exact error rate so obtained can be much easily evaluated as compared to the only reliable approximate error rate expression currently available, which is based on the Improved Gaussian Approximation (IGA).

Architecture for an artificial immune system.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, S A; Forrest, S

2000-01-01

An artificial immune system (ARTIS) is described which incorporates many properties of natural immune systems, including diversity, distributed computation, error tolerance, dynamic learning and adaptation, and self-monitoring. ARTIS is a general framework for a distributed adaptive system and could, in principle, be applied to many domains. In this paper, ARTIS is applied to computer security in the form of a network intrusion detection system called LISYS. LISYS is described and shown to be effective at detecting intrusions, while maintaining low false positive rates. Finally, similarities and differences between ARTIS and Holland's classifier systems are discussed.

A pipeline leakage locating method based on the gradient descent algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yulong; Yang, Fan; Ni, Na

2018-04-01

A pipeline leakage locating method based on the gradient descent algorithm is proposed in this paper. The method has low computing complexity, which is suitable for practical application. We have built experimental environment in real underground pipeline network. A lot of real data has been gathered in the past three months. Every leak point has been certificated by excavation. Results show that positioning error is within 0.4 meter. Rate of false alarm and missing alarm are both under 20%. The calculating time is not above 5 seconds.

Effect of bar-code technology on the safety of medication administration.

PubMed

Poon, Eric G; Keohane, Carol A; Yoon, Catherine S; Ditmore, Matthew; Bane, Anne; Levtzion-Korach, Osnat; Moniz, Thomas; Rothschild, Jeffrey M; Kachalia, Allen B; Hayes, Judy; Churchill, William W; Lipsitz, Stuart; Whittemore, Anthony D; Bates, David W; Gandhi, Tejal K

2010-05-06

Serious medication errors are common in hospitals and often occur during order transcription or administration of medication. To help prevent such errors, technology has been developed to verify medications by incorporating bar-code verification technology within an electronic medication-administration system (bar-code eMAR). We conducted a before-and-after, quasi-experimental study in an academic medical center that was implementing the bar-code eMAR. We assessed rates of errors in order transcription and medication administration on units before and after implementation of the bar-code eMAR. Errors that involved early or late administration of medications were classified as timing errors and all others as nontiming errors. Two clinicians reviewed the errors to determine their potential to harm patients and classified those that could be harmful as potential adverse drug events. We observed 14,041 medication administrations and reviewed 3082 order transcriptions. Observers noted 776 nontiming errors in medication administration on units that did not use the bar-code eMAR (an 11.5% error rate) versus 495 such errors on units that did use it (a 6.8% error rate)--a 41.4% relative reduction in errors (P<0.001). The rate of potential adverse drug events (other than those associated with timing errors) fell from 3.1% without the use of the bar-code eMAR to 1.6% with its use, representing a 50.8% relative reduction (P<0.001). The rate of timing errors in medication administration fell by 27.3% (P<0.001), but the rate of potential adverse drug events associated with timing errors did not change significantly. Transcription errors occurred at a rate of 6.1% on units that did not use the bar-code eMAR but were completely eliminated on units that did use it. Use of the bar-code eMAR substantially reduced the rate of errors in order transcription and in medication administration as well as potential adverse drug events, although it did not eliminate such errors. Our data show that the bar-code eMAR is an important intervention to improve medication safety. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00243373.) 2010 Massachusetts Medical Society

Development and implementation of a human accuracy program in patient foodservice.

PubMed

Eden, S H; Wood, S M; Ptak, K M

1987-04-01

For many years, industry has utilized the concept of human error rates to monitor and minimize human errors in the production process. A consistent quality-controlled product increases consumer satisfaction and repeat purchase of product. Administrative dietitians have applied the concepts of using human error rates (the number of errors divided by the number of opportunities for error) at four hospitals, with a total bed capacity of 788, within a tertiary-care medical center. Human error rate was used to monitor and evaluate trayline employee performance and to evaluate layout and tasks of trayline stations, in addition to evaluating employees in patient service areas. Long-term employees initially opposed the error rate system with some hostility and resentment, while newer employees accepted the system. All employees now believe that the constant feedback given by supervisors enhances their self-esteem and productivity. Employee error rates are monitored daily and are used to counsel employees when necessary; they are also utilized during annual performance evaluation. Average daily error rates for a facility staffed by new employees decreased from 7% to an acceptable 3%. In a facility staffed by long-term employees, the error rate increased, reflecting improper error documentation. Patient satisfaction surveys reveal satisfaction, for tray accuracy increased from 88% to 92% in the facility staffed by long-term employees and has remained above the 90% standard in the facility staffed by new employees.

The influence of the structure and culture of medical group practices on prescription drug errors.

PubMed

Kralewski, John E; Dowd, Bryan E; Heaton, Alan; Kaissi, Amer

2005-08-01

This project was designed to identify the magnitude of prescription drug errors in medical group practices and to explore the influence of the practice structure and culture on those error rates. Seventy-eight practices serving an upper Midwest managed care (Care Plus) plan during 2001 were included in the study. Using Care Plus claims data, prescription drug error rates were calculated at the enrollee level and then were aggregated to the group practice that each enrollee selected to provide and manage their care. Practice structure and culture data were obtained from surveys of the practices. Data were analyzed using multivariate regression. Both the culture and the structure of these group practices appear to influence prescription drug error rates. Seeing more patients per clinic hour, more prescriptions per patient, and being cared for in a rural clinic were all strongly associated with more errors. Conversely, having a case manager program is strongly related to fewer errors in all of our analyses. The culture of the practices clearly influences error rates, but the findings are mixed. Practices with cohesive cultures have lower error rates but, contrary to our hypothesis, cultures that value physician autonomy and individuality also have lower error rates than those with a more organizational orientation. Our study supports the contention that there are a substantial number of prescription drug errors in the ambulatory care sector. Even by the strictest definition, there were about 13 errors per 100 prescriptions for Care Plus patients in these group practices during 2001. Our study demonstrates that the structure of medical group practices influences prescription drug error rates. In some cases, this appears to be a direct relationship, such as the effects of having a case manager program on fewer drug errors, but in other cases the effect appears to be indirect through the improvement of drug prescribing practices. An important aspect of this study is that it provides insights into the relationships of the structure and culture of medical group practices and prescription drug errors and provides direction for future research. Research focused on the factors influencing the high error rates in rural areas and how the interaction of practice structural and cultural attributes influence error rates would add important insights into our findings. For medical practice directors, our data show that they should focus on patient care coordination to reduce errors.

Multi-temporal change image inference towards false alarms reduction for an operational photogrammetric rockfall detection system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partsinevelos, Panagiotis; Kallimani, Christina; Tripolitsiotis, Achilleas

2015-06-01

Rockfall incidents affect civil security and hamper the sustainable growth of hard to access mountainous areas due to casualties, injuries and infrastructure loss. Rockfall occurrences cannot be easily prevented, whereas previous studies for rockfall multiple sensor early detection systems have focused on large scale incidents. However, even a single rock may cause the loss of a human life along transportation routes thus, it is highly important to establish methods for the early detection of small-scale rockfall incidents. Terrestrial photogrammetric techniques are prone to a series of errors leading to false alarm incidents, including vegetation, wind, and non relevant change in the scene under consideration. In this study, photogrammetric monitoring of rockfall prone slopes is established and the resulting multi-temporal change imagery is processed in order to minimize false alarm incidents. Integration of remote sensing imagery analysis techniques is hereby applied to enhance early detection of a rockfall. Experimental data demonstrated that an operational system able to identify a 10-cm rock movement within a 10% false alarm rate is technically feasible.

Emergency department discharge prescription errors in an academic medical center

PubMed Central

Belanger, April; Devine, Lauren T.; Lane, Aaron; Condren, Michelle E.

2017-01-01

This study described discharge prescription medication errors written for emergency department patients. This study used content analysis in a cross-sectional design to systematically categorize prescription errors found in a report of 1000 discharge prescriptions submitted in the electronic medical record in February 2015. Two pharmacy team members reviewed the discharge prescription list for errors. Open-ended data were coded by an additional rater for agreement on coding categories. Coding was based upon majority rule. Descriptive statistics were used to address the study objective. Categories evaluated were patient age, provider type, drug class, and type and time of error. The discharge prescription error rate out of 1000 prescriptions was 13.4%, with “incomplete or inadequate prescription” being the most commonly detected error (58.2%). The adult and pediatric error rates were 11.7% and 22.7%, respectively. The antibiotics reviewed had the highest number of errors. The highest within-class error rates were with antianginal medications, antiparasitic medications, antacids, appetite stimulants, and probiotics. Emergency medicine residents wrote the highest percentage of prescriptions (46.7%) and had an error rate of 9.2%. Residents of other specialties wrote 340 prescriptions and had an error rate of 20.9%. Errors occurred most often between 10:00 am and 6:00 pm. PMID:28405061

Evaluation of exome variants using the Ion Proton Platform to sequence error-prone regions.

PubMed

Seo, Heewon; Park, Yoomi; Min, Byung Joo; Seo, Myung Eui; Kim, Ju Han

2017-01-01

The Ion Proton sequencer from Thermo Fisher accurately determines sequence variants from target regions with a rapid turnaround time at a low cost. However, misleading variant-calling errors can occur. We performed a systematic evaluation and manual curation of read-level alignments for the 675 ultrarare variants reported by the Ion Proton sequencer from 27 whole-exome sequencing data but that are not present in either the 1000 Genomes Project and the Exome Aggregation Consortium. We classified positive variant calls into 393 highly likely false positives, 126 likely false positives, and 156 likely true positives, which comprised 58.2%, 18.7%, and 23.1% of the variants, respectively. We identified four distinct error patterns of variant calling that may be bioinformatically corrected when using different strategies: simplicity region, SNV cluster, peripheral sequence read, and base inversion. Local de novo assembly successfully corrected 201 (38.7%) of the 519 highly likely or likely false positives. We also demonstrate that the two sequencing kits from Thermo Fisher (the Ion PI Sequencing 200 kit V3 and the Ion PI Hi-Q kit) exhibit different error profiles across different error types. A refined calling algorithm with better polymerase may improve the performance of the Ion Proton sequencing platform.

Arousal-But Not Valence-Reduces False Memories at Retrieval.

PubMed

Mirandola, Chiara; Toffalini, Enrico

2016-01-01

Mood affects both memory accuracy and memory distortions. However, some aspects of this relation are still poorly understood: (1) whether valence and arousal equally affect false memory production, and (2) whether retrieval-related processes matter; the extant literature typically shows that mood influences memory performance when it is induced before encoding, leaving unsolved whether mood induced before retrieval also impacts memory. We examined how negative, positive, and neutral mood induced before retrieval affected inferential false memories and related subjective memory experiences. A recognition-memory paradigm for photographs depicting script-like events was employed. Results showed that individuals in both negative and positive moods-similar in arousal levels-correctly recognized more target events and endorsed fewer false memories (and these errors were linked to remember responses less frequently), compared to individuals in neutral mood. This suggests that arousal (but not valence) predicted memory performance; furthermore, we found that arousal ratings provided by participants were more adequate predictors of memory performance than their actual belonging to either positive, negative or neutral mood groups. These findings suggest that arousal has a primary role in affecting memory, and that mood exerts its power on true and false memory even when induced at retrieval.

Arousal—But Not Valence—Reduces False Memories at Retrieval

PubMed Central

Mirandola, Chiara; Toffalini, Enrico

2016-01-01

Mood affects both memory accuracy and memory distortions. However, some aspects of this relation are still poorly understood: (1) whether valence and arousal equally affect false memory production, and (2) whether retrieval-related processes matter; the extant literature typically shows that mood influences memory performance when it is induced before encoding, leaving unsolved whether mood induced before retrieval also impacts memory. We examined how negative, positive, and neutral mood induced before retrieval affected inferential false memories and related subjective memory experiences. A recognition-memory paradigm for photographs depicting script-like events was employed. Results showed that individuals in both negative and positive moods–similar in arousal levels–correctly recognized more target events and endorsed fewer false memories (and these errors were linked to remember responses less frequently), compared to individuals in neutral mood. This suggests that arousal (but not valence) predicted memory performance; furthermore, we found that arousal ratings provided by participants were more adequate predictors of memory performance than their actual belonging to either positive, negative or neutral mood groups. These findings suggest that arousal has a primary role in affecting memory, and that mood exerts its power on true and false memory even when induced at retrieval. PMID:26938737

A Highly Accurate Face Recognition System Using Filtering Correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Eriko; Ishikawa, Sayuri; Kodate, Kashiko

2007-09-01

The authors previously constructed a highly accurate fast face recognition optical correlator (FARCO) [E. Watanabe and K. Kodate: Opt. Rev. 12 (2005) 460], and subsequently developed an improved, super high-speed FARCO (S-FARCO), which is able to process several hundred thousand frames per second. The principal advantage of our new system is its wide applicability to any correlation scheme. Three different configurations were proposed, each depending on correlation speed. This paper describes and evaluates a software correlation filter. The face recognition function proved highly accurate, seeing that a low-resolution facial image size (64 × 64 pixels) has been successfully implemented. An operation speed of less than 10 ms was achieved using a personal computer with a central processing unit (CPU) of 3 GHz and 2 GB memory. When we applied the software correlation filter to a high-security cellular phone face recognition system, experiments on 30 female students over a period of three months yielded low error rates: 0% false acceptance rate and 2% false rejection rate. Therefore, the filtering correlation works effectively when applied to low resolution images such as web-based images or faces captured by a monitoring camera.

MSblender: A probabilistic approach for integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines.

PubMed

Kwon, Taejoon; Choi, Hyungwon; Vogel, Christine; Nesvizhskii, Alexey I; Marcotte, Edward M

2011-07-01

Shotgun proteomics using mass spectrometry is a powerful method for protein identification but suffers limited sensitivity in complex samples. Integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines is a promising strategy to increase the number of peptide identifications and reduce the volume of unassigned tandem mass spectra. Existing methods pool statistical significance scores such as p-values or posterior probabilities of peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) from multiple search engines after high scoring peptides have been assigned to spectra, but these methods lack reliable control of identification error rates as data are integrated from different search engines. We developed a statistically coherent method for integrative analysis, termed MSblender. MSblender converts raw search scores from search engines into a probability score for every possible PSM and properly accounts for the correlation between search scores. The method reliably estimates false discovery rates and identifies more PSMs than any single search engine at the same false discovery rate. Increased identifications increment spectral counts for most proteins and allow quantification of proteins that would not have been quantified by individual search engines. We also demonstrate that enhanced quantification contributes to improve sensitivity in differential expression analyses.

MSblender: a probabilistic approach for integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines

PubMed Central

Kwon, Taejoon; Choi, Hyungwon; Vogel, Christine; Nesvizhskii, Alexey I.; Marcotte, Edward M.

2011-01-01

Shotgun proteomics using mass spectrometry is a powerful method for protein identification but suffers limited sensitivity in complex samples. Integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines is a promising strategy to increase the number of peptide identifications and reduce the volume of unassigned tandem mass spectra. Existing methods pool statistical significance scores such as p-values or posterior probabilities of peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) from multiple search engines after high scoring peptides have been assigned to spectra, but these methods lack reliable control of identification error rates as data are integrated from different search engines. We developed a statistically coherent method for integrative analysis, termed MSblender. MSblender converts raw search scores from search engines into a probability score for all possible PSMs and properly accounts for the correlation between search scores. The method reliably estimates false discovery rates and identifies more PSMs than any single search engine at the same false discovery rate. Increased identifications increment spectral counts for all detected proteins and allow quantification of proteins that would not have been quantified by individual search engines. We also demonstrate that enhanced quantification contributes to improve sensitivity in differential expression analyses. PMID:21488652

Video-Based Fingerprint Verification

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Yin, Yilong; Liu, Lili

2013-01-01

Conventional fingerprint verification systems use only static information. In this paper, fingerprint videos, which contain dynamic information, are utilized for verification. Fingerprint videos are acquired by the same capture device that acquires conventional fingerprint images, and the user experience of providing a fingerprint video is the same as that of providing a single impression. After preprocessing and aligning processes, “inside similarity” and “outside similarity” are defined and calculated to take advantage of both dynamic and static information contained in fingerprint videos. Match scores between two matching fingerprint videos are then calculated by combining the two kinds of similarity. Experimental results show that the proposed video-based method leads to a relative reduction of 60 percent in the equal error rate (EER) in comparison to the conventional single impression-based method. We also analyze the time complexity of our method when different combinations of strategies are used. Our method still outperforms the conventional method, even if both methods have the same time complexity. Finally, experimental results demonstrate that the proposed video-based method can lead to better accuracy than the multiple impressions fusion method, and the proposed method has a much lower false acceptance rate (FAR) when the false rejection rate (FRR) is quite low. PMID:24008283

Decision Making for Borderline Cases in Pass/Fail Clinical Anatomy Courses: The Practical Value of the Standard Error of Measurement and Likelihood Ratio in a Diagnostic Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Severo, Milton; Silva-Pereira, Fernanda; Ferreira, Maria Amelia

2013-01-01

Several studies have shown that the standard error of measurement (SEM) can be used as an additional “safety net” to reduce the frequency of false-positive or false-negative student grading classifications. Practical examinations in clinical anatomy are often used as diagnostic tests to admit students to course final examinations. The aim of this…

Fast Face-Recognition Optical Parallel Correlator Using High Accuracy Correlation Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Eriko; Kodate, Kashiko

2005-11-01

We designed and fabricated a fully automatic fast face recognition optical parallel correlator [E. Watanabe and K. Kodate: Appl. Opt. 44 (2005) 5666] based on the VanderLugt principle. The implementation of an as-yet unattained ultra high-speed system was aided by reconfiguring the system to make it suitable for easier parallel processing, as well as by composing a higher accuracy correlation filter and high-speed ferroelectric liquid crystal-spatial light modulator (FLC-SLM). In running trial experiments using this system (dubbed FARCO), we succeeded in acquiring remarkably low error rates of 1.3% for false match rate (FMR) and 2.6% for false non-match rate (FNMR). Given the results of our experiments, the aim of this paper is to examine methods of designing correlation filters and arranging database image arrays for even faster parallel correlation, underlining the issues of calculation technique, quantization bit rate, pixel size and shift from optical axis. The correlation filter has proved its excellent performance and higher precision than classical correlation and joint transform correlator (JTC). Moreover, arrangement of multi-object reference images leads to 10-channel correlation signals, as sharply marked as those of a single channel. This experiment result demonstrates great potential for achieving the process speed of 10000 face/s.

Cognitive tests predict real-world errors: the relationship between drug name confusion rates in laboratory-based memory and perception tests and corresponding error rates in large pharmacy chains

PubMed Central

Schroeder, Scott R; Salomon, Meghan M; Galanter, William L; Schiff, Gordon D; Vaida, Allen J; Gaunt, Michael J; Bryson, Michelle L; Rash, Christine; Falck, Suzanne; Lambert, Bruce L

2017-01-01

Background Drug name confusion is a common type of medication error and a persistent threat to patient safety. In the USA, roughly one per thousand prescriptions results in the wrong drug being filled, and most of these errors involve drug names that look or sound alike. Prior to approval, drug names undergo a variety of tests to assess their potential for confusability, but none of these preapproval tests has been shown to predict real-world error rates. Objectives We conducted a study to assess the association between error rates in laboratory-based tests of drug name memory and perception and real-world drug name confusion error rates. Methods Eighty participants, comprising doctors, nurses, pharmacists, technicians and lay people, completed a battery of laboratory tests assessing visual perception, auditory perception and short-term memory of look-alike and sound-alike drug name pairs (eg, hydroxyzine/hydralazine). Results Laboratory test error rates (and other metrics) significantly predicted real-world error rates obtained from a large, outpatient pharmacy chain, with the best-fitting model accounting for 37% of the variance in real-world error rates. Cross-validation analyses confirmed these results, showing that the laboratory tests also predicted errors from a second pharmacy chain, with 45% of the variance being explained by the laboratory test data. Conclusions Across two distinct pharmacy chains, there is a strong and significant association between drug name confusion error rates observed in the real world and those observed in laboratory-based tests of memory and perception. Regulators and drug companies seeking a validated preapproval method for identifying confusing drug names ought to consider using these simple tests. By using a standard battery of memory and perception tests, it should be possible to reduce the number of confusing look-alike and sound-alike drug name pairs that reach the market, which will help protect patients from potentially harmful medication errors. PMID:27193033

Dispensing error rate after implementation of an automated pharmacy carousel system.

PubMed

Oswald, Scott; Caldwell, Richard

2007-07-01

A study was conducted to determine filling and dispensing error rates before and after the implementation of an automated pharmacy carousel system (APCS). The study was conducted in a 613-bed acute and tertiary care university hospital. Before the implementation of the APCS, filling and dispensing rates were recorded during October through November 2004 and January 2005. Postimplementation data were collected during May through June 2006. Errors were recorded in three areas of pharmacy operations: first-dose or missing medication fill, automated dispensing cabinet fill, and interdepartmental request fill. A filling error was defined as an error caught by a pharmacist during the verification step. A dispensing error was defined as an error caught by a pharmacist observer after verification by the pharmacist. Before implementation of the APCS, 422 first-dose or missing medication orders were observed between October 2004 and January 2005. Independent data collected in December 2005, approximately six weeks after the introduction of the APCS, found that filling and error rates had increased. The filling rate for automated dispensing cabinets was associated with the largest decrease in errors. Filling and dispensing error rates had decreased by December 2005. In terms of interdepartmental request fill, no dispensing errors were noted in 123 clinic orders dispensed before the implementation of the APCS. One dispensing error out of 85 clinic orders was identified after implementation of the APCS. The implementation of an APCS at a university hospital decreased medication filling errors related to automated cabinets only and did not affect other filling and dispensing errors.

The Statistical Loop Analyzer (SLA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindsey, W. C.

1985-01-01

The statistical loop analyzer (SLA) is designed to automatically measure the acquisition, tracking and frequency stability performance characteristics of symbol synchronizers, code synchronizers, carrier tracking loops, and coherent transponders. Automated phase lock and system level tests can also be made using the SLA. Standard baseband, carrier and spread spectrum modulation techniques can be accomodated. Through the SLA's phase error jitter and cycle slip measurements the acquisition and tracking thresholds of the unit under test are determined; any false phase and frequency lock events are statistically analyzed and reported in the SLA output in probabilistic terms. Automated signal drop out tests can be performed in order to trouble shoot algorithms and evaluate the reacquisition statistics of the unit under test. Cycle slip rates and cycle slip probabilities can be measured using the SLA. These measurements, combined with bit error probability measurements, are all that are needed to fully characterize the acquisition and tracking performance of a digital communication system.

Multi-criteria decision making approaches for quality control of genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Malovini, Alberto; Rognoni, Carla; Puca, Annibale; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2009-03-01

Experimental errors in the genotyping phases of a Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) can lead to false positive findings and to spurious associations. An appropriate quality control phase could minimize the effects of this kind of errors. Several filtering criteria can be used to perform quality control. Currently, no formal methods have been proposed for taking into account at the same time these criteria and the experimenter's preferences. In this paper we propose two strategies for setting appropriate genotyping rate thresholds for GWAS quality control. These two approaches are based on the Multi-Criteria Decision Making theory. We have applied our method on a real dataset composed by 734 individuals affected by Arterial Hypertension (AH) and 486 nonagenarians without history of AH. The proposed strategies appear to deal with GWAS quality control in a sound way, as they lead to rationalize and make explicit the experimenter's choices thus providing more reproducible results.

Passport Officers’ Errors in Face Matching

PubMed Central

White, David; Kemp, Richard I.; Jenkins, Rob; Matheson, Michael; Burton, A. Mike

2014-01-01

Photo-ID is widely used in security settings, despite research showing that viewers find it very difficult to match unfamiliar faces. Here we test participants with specialist experience and training in the task: passport-issuing officers. First, we ask officers to compare photos to live ID-card bearers, and observe high error rates, including 14% false acceptance of ‘fraudulent’ photos. Second, we compare passport officers with a set of student participants, and find equally poor levels of accuracy in both groups. Finally, we observe that passport officers show no performance advantage over the general population on a standardised face-matching task. Across all tasks, we observe very large individual differences: while average performance of passport staff was poor, some officers performed very accurately – though this was not related to length of experience or training. We propose that improvements in security could be made by emphasising personnel selection. PMID:25133682

Passport officers' errors in face matching.

PubMed

White, David; Kemp, Richard I; Jenkins, Rob; Matheson, Michael; Burton, A Mike

2014-01-01

Photo-ID is widely used in security settings, despite research showing that viewers find it very difficult to match unfamiliar faces. Here we test participants with specialist experience and training in the task: passport-issuing officers. First, we ask officers to compare photos to live ID-card bearers, and observe high error rates, including 14% false acceptance of 'fraudulent' photos. Second, we compare passport officers with a set of student participants, and find equally poor levels of accuracy in both groups. Finally, we observe that passport officers show no performance advantage over the general population on a standardised face-matching task. Across all tasks, we observe very large individual differences: while average performance of passport staff was poor, some officers performed very accurately--though this was not related to length of experience or training. We propose that improvements in security could be made by emphasising personnel selection.

Parity Nonconservation in Proton-Proton and Proton-Water Scattering at 1.5 GeV/c

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Mischke, R. E.; Bowman, J. D.; Carlini, R.; MacArthur, D.; Nagle, D. E.; Frauenfelder, H.; Harper, R. W.; Yuan, V.; McDonald, A. B.; Talaga, R. L.

1984-07-01

Experiments searching for parity nonconservation in the scattering of 1.5 GeV/c (800 MeV) polarized protons from an unpolarized water target and a liquid hydrogen target are described. The intensity of the incident proton beam was measured upstream and downstream of the target by a pair of ionization detectors. The beam helicity was reversed at a 30-Hz rate. Auxiliary detectors monitored beam properties that could give rise to false effects. The result for the longitudinal asymmetry from the water is A{sub L} = (1.7 +- 3.3 +- 1.4) x 10{sup -7}, where the first error is statistical and the second is an estimate of systematic effects. The hydrogen data yield a preliminary result of A{sub L} = (1.0 +- 1.6) x 10{sup -7}. The systematic errors for p-p are expected to be < 1 x 10{sup -7}.

The Pitfalls of Thesaurus Ontologization – the Case of the NCI Thesaurus

PubMed Central

Schulz, Stefan; Schober, Daniel; Tudose, Ilinca; Stenzhorn, Holger

2010-01-01

Thesauri that are “ontologized” into OWL-DL semantics are highly amenable to modeling errors resulting from falsely interpreting existential restrictions. We investigated the OWL-DL representation of the NCI Thesaurus (NCIT) in order to assess the correctness of existential restrictions. A random sample of 354 axioms using the someValuesFrom operator was taken. According to a rating performed by two domain experts, roughly half of these examples, and in consequence more than 76,000 axioms in the OWL-DL version, make incorrect assertions if interpreted according to description logics semantics. These axioms therefore constitute a huge source for unintended models, rendering most logic-based reasoning unreliable. After identifying typical error patterns we discuss some possible improvements. Our recommendation is to either amend the problematic axioms in the OWL-DL formalization or to consider some less strict representational format. PMID:21347074

Analyzing false positives of four questions in the Force Concept Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasuda, Jun-ichiro; Mae, Naohiro; Hull, Michael M.; Taniguchi, Masa-aki

2018-06-01

In this study, we analyze the systematic error from false positives of the Force Concept Inventory (FCI). We compare the systematic errors of question 6 (Q.6), Q.7, and Q.16, for which clearly erroneous reasoning has been found, with Q.5, for which clearly erroneous reasoning has not been found. We determine whether or not a correct response to a given FCI question is a false positive using subquestions. In addition to the 30 original questions, subquestions were introduced for Q.5, Q.6, Q.7, and Q.16. This modified version of the FCI was administered to 1145 university students in Japan from 2015 to 2017. In this paper, we discuss our finding that the systematic errors of Q.6, Q.7, and Q.16 are much larger than that of Q.5 for students with mid-level FCI scores. Furthermore, we find that, averaged over the data sample, the sum of the false positives from Q.5, Q.6, Q.7, and Q.16 is about 10% of the FCI score of a midlevel student.

48 CFR 22.1015 - Discovery of errors by the Department of Labor.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Discovery of errors by the... REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS APPLICATION OF LABOR LAWS TO GOVERNMENT ACQUISITIONS Service Contract Act of 1965, as Amended 22.1015 Discovery of errors by the Department of Labor. If the Department of...

12 CFR 205.11 - Procedures for resolving errors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Procedures for resolving errors. 205.11 Section 205.11 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM ELECTRONIC FUND TRANSFERS (REGULATION E) § 205.11 Procedures for resolving errors. (a) Definition of error—(1...

Unobtrusive Biometric System Based on Electroencephalogram Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riera, A.; Soria-Frisch, A.; Caparrini, M.; Grau, C.; Ruffini, G.

2007-12-01

Features extracted from electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings have proved to be unique enough between subjects for biometric applications. We show here that biometry based on these recordings offers a novel way to robustly authenticate or identify subjects. In this paper, we present a rapid and unobtrusive authentication method that only uses 2 frontal electrodes referenced to another one placed at the ear lobe. Moreover, the system makes use of a multistage fusion architecture, which demonstrates to improve the system performance. The performance analysis of the system presented in this paper stems from an experiment with 51 subjects and 36 intruders, where an equal error rate (EER) of 3.4% is obtained, that is, true acceptance rate (TAR) of 96.6% and a false acceptance rate (FAR) of 3.4%. The obtained performance measures improve the results of similar systems presented in earlier work.

Rapid Identification and Susceptibility Testing of Candida spp. from Positive Blood Cultures by Combination of Direct MALDI-TOF Mass Spectrometry and Direct Inoculation of Vitek 2

PubMed Central

Idelevich, Evgeny A.; Grunewald, Camilla M.; Wüllenweber, Jörg; Becker, Karsten

2014-01-01

Fungaemia is associated with high mortality rates and early appropriate antifungal therapy is essential for patient management. However, classical diagnostic workflow takes up to several days due to the slow growth of yeasts. Therefore, an approach for direct species identification and direct antifungal susceptibility testing (AFST) without prior time-consuming sub-culturing of yeasts from positive blood cultures (BCs) is urgently needed. Yeast cell pellets prepared using Sepsityper kit were used for direct identification by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry (MS) and for direct inoculation of Vitek 2 AST-YS07 card for AFST. For comparison, MALDI-TOF MS and Vitek 2 testing were performed from yeast subculture. A total of twenty four positive BCs including twelve C. glabrata, nine C. albicans, two C. dubliniensis and one C. krusei isolate were processed. Applying modified thresholds for species identification (score ≥1.5 with two identical consecutive propositions), 62.5% of BCs were identified by direct MALDI-TOF MS. AFST results were generated for 72.7% of BCs directly tested by Vitek 2 and for 100% of standardized suspensions from 24 h cultures. Thus, AFST comparison was possible for 70 isolate-antifungal combinations. Essential agreement (minimum inhibitory concentration difference ≤1 double dilution step) was 88.6%. Very major errors (VMEs) (false-susceptibility), major errors (false-resistance) and minor errors (false categorization involving intermediate result) amounted to 33.3% (of resistant isolates), 1.9% (of susceptible isolates) and 1.4% providing 90.0% categorical agreement. All VMEs were due to fluconazole or voriconazole. This direct method saved on average 23.5 h for identification and 15.1 h for AFST, compared to routine procedures. However, performance for azole susceptibility testing was suboptimal and testing from subculture remains indispensable to validate the direct finding. PMID:25489741

Rapid identification and susceptibility testing of Candida spp. from positive blood cultures by combination of direct MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and direct inoculation of Vitek 2.

PubMed

Idelevich, Evgeny A; Grunewald, Camilla M; Wüllenweber, Jörg; Becker, Karsten

2014-01-01

Fungaemia is associated with high mortality rates and early appropriate antifungal therapy is essential for patient management. However, classical diagnostic workflow takes up to several days due to the slow growth of yeasts. Therefore, an approach for direct species identification and direct antifungal susceptibility testing (AFST) without prior time-consuming sub-culturing of yeasts from positive blood cultures (BCs) is urgently needed. Yeast cell pellets prepared using Sepsityper kit were used for direct identification by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry (MS) and for direct inoculation of Vitek 2 AST-YS07 card for AFST. For comparison, MALDI-TOF MS and Vitek 2 testing were performed from yeast subculture. A total of twenty four positive BCs including twelve C. glabrata, nine C. albicans, two C. dubliniensis and one C. krusei isolate were processed. Applying modified thresholds for species identification (score ≥ 1.5 with two identical consecutive propositions), 62.5% of BCs were identified by direct MALDI-TOF MS. AFST results were generated for 72.7% of BCs directly tested by Vitek 2 and for 100% of standardized suspensions from 24 h cultures. Thus, AFST comparison was possible for 70 isolate-antifungal combinations. Essential agreement (minimum inhibitory concentration difference ≤ 1 double dilution step) was 88.6%. Very major errors (VMEs) (false-susceptibility), major errors (false-resistance) and minor errors (false categorization involving intermediate result) amounted to 33.3% (of resistant isolates), 1.9% (of susceptible isolates) and 1.4% providing 90.0% categorical agreement. All VMEs were due to fluconazole or voriconazole. This direct method saved on average 23.5 h for identification and 15.1 h for AFST, compared to routine procedures. However, performance for azole susceptibility testing was suboptimal and testing from subculture remains indispensable to validate the direct finding.

Comparison of the accuracy rates of 3-T and 1.5-T MRI of the knee in the diagnosis of meniscal tear.

PubMed

Grossman, Jeffrey W; De Smet, Arthur A; Shinki, Kazuhiko

2009-08-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of 3-T MRI with that of 1.5-T MRI of the knee in the diagnosis of meniscal tear and to analyze the causes of diagnostic error. We reviewed the medical records and original MRI interpretations of 100 consecutive patients who underwent 3-T MRI of the knee and of 100 consecutive patients who underwent 1.5-T MRI of the knee to determine the accuracy of diagnoses of meniscal tear. Knee arthroscopy was the reference standard. We retrospectively reviewed all MRI diagnostic errors to determine the cause of the errors. At arthroscopy, 109 medial and 77 lateral meniscal tears were identified in the 200 patients. With two abnormal MR images indicating a meniscal tear, the sensitivity and specificity for medial tear were 92.7% and 82.2% at 1.5-T MRI and 92.6% and 76.1% at 3-T MRI (p = 1.0, p = 0.61). The sensitivity and specificity for lateral tears were 68.4% and 95.2% at 1.5-T MRI and 69.2% and 91.8% at 3-T MRI (p = 1.0, p = 0.49). Of the false-positive diagnoses of medial meniscal tear, five of eight at 1.5 T and seven of 11 at 3 T were apparent peripheral longitudinal tears of the posterior horn. Fifteen of the 26 missed medial and lateral meniscal tears were not seen in retrospect even with knowledge of the tear type and location. Allowing for sample size limitations, we found comparable accuracy of 3-T and 1.5-T MRI of the knee in the diagnosis of meniscal tear. The causes of false-positive and false-negative MRI diagnoses of meniscal tear are similar for 3-T and 1.5-T MRI.

GWASinlps: Nonlocal prior based iterative SNP selection tool for genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Sanyal, Nilotpal; Lo, Min-Tzu; Kauppi, Karolina; Djurovic, Srdjan; Andreassen, Ole A; Johnson, Valen E; Chen, Chi-Hua

2018-06-19

Multiple marker analysis of the genome-wide association study (GWAS) data has gained ample attention in recent years. However, because of the ultra high-dimensionality of GWAS data, such analysis is challenging. Frequently used penalized regression methods often lead to large number of false positives, whereas Bayesian methods are computationally very expensive. Motivated to ameliorate these issues simultaneously, we consider the novel approach of using nonlocal priors in an iterative variable selection framework. We develop a variable selection method, named, iterative nonlocal prior based selection for GWAS, or GWASinlps, that combines, in an iterative variable selection framework, the computational efficiency of the screen-and-select approach based on some association learning and the parsimonious uncertainty quantification provided by the use of nonlocal priors. The hallmark of our method is the introduction of 'structured screen-and-select' strategy, that considers hierarchical screening, which is not only based on response-predictor associations, but also based on response-response associations, and concatenates variable selection within that hierarchy. Extensive simulation studies with SNPs having realistic linkage disequilibrium structures demonstrate the advantages of our computationally efficient method compared to several frequentist and Bayesian variable selection methods, in terms of true positive rate, false discovery rate, mean squared error, and effect size estimation error. Further, we provide empirical power analysis useful for study design. Finally, a real GWAS data application was considered with human height as phenotype. An R-package for implementing the GWASinlps method is available at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/GWASinlps/index.html. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Optimizing the TESS Planet Finding Pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitamitara, Aerbwong; Smith, Jeffrey C.; Tenenbaum, Peter; TESS Science Processing Operations Center

2017-10-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is a new NASA planet finding all-sky survey that will observe stars within 200 light years and 10-100 times brighter than that of the highly successful Kepler mission. TESS is expected to detect ~1000 planets smaller than Neptune and dozens of Earth size planets. As in the Kepler mission, the Science Processing Operations Center (SPOC) processing pipeline at NASA Ames Research center is tasked with calibrating the raw pixel data, generating systematic error corrected light curves and then detecting and validating transit signals. The Transiting Planet Search (TPS) component of the pipeline must be modified and tuned for the new data characteristics in TESS. For example, due to each sector being viewed for as little as 28 days, the pipeline will be identifying transiting planets based on a minimum of two transit signals rather than three, as in the Kepler mission. This may result in a significantly higher false positive rate. The study presented here is to measure the detection efficiency of the TESS pipeline using simulated data. Transiting planets identified by TPS are compared to transiting planets from the simulated transit model using the measured epochs, periods, transit durations and the expected detection statistic of injected transit signals (expected MES). From the comparisons, the recovery and false positive rates of TPS is measured. Measurements of recovery in TPS are then used to adjust TPS configuration parameters to maximize the planet recovery rate and minimize false detections. The improvements in recovery rate between initial TPS conditions and after various adjustments will be presented and discussed.

Differential detection in quadrature-quadrature phase shift keying (Q2PSK) systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Ghandour, Osama M.; Saha, Debabrata

1991-05-01

A generalized quadrature-quadrature phase shift keying (Q2PSK) signaling format is considered for differential encoding and differential detection. Performance in the presence of additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) is analyzed. Symbol error rate is found to be approximately twice the symbol error rate in a quaternary DPSK system operating at the same Eb/N0. However, the bandwidth efficiency of differential Q2PSK is substantially higher than that of quaternary DPSK. When the error is due to AWGN, the ratio of double error rate to single error rate can be very high, and the ratio may approach zero at high SNR. To improve error rate, differential detection through maximum-likelihood decoding based on multiple or N symbol observations is considered. If N and SNR are large this decoding gives a 3-dB advantage in error rate over conventional N = 2 differential detection, fully recovering the energy loss (as compared to coherent detection) if the observation is extended to a large number of symbol durations.

Error Correction using Quantum Quasi-Cyclic Low-Density Parity-Check(LDPC) Codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Lin; Brun, Todd; Quantum Research Team

Quasi-cyclic LDPC codes can approach the Shannon capacity and have efficient decoders. Manabu Hagiwara et al., 2007 presented a method to calculate parity check matrices with high girth. Two distinct, orthogonal matrices Hc and Hd are used. Using submatrices obtained from Hc and Hd by deleting rows, we can alter the code rate. The submatrix of Hc is used to correct Pauli X errors, and the submatrix of Hd to correct Pauli Z errors. We simulated this system for depolarizing noise on USC's High Performance Computing Cluster, and obtained the block error rate (BER) as a function of the error weight and code rate. From the rates of uncorrectable errors under different error weights we can extrapolate the BER to any small error probability. Our results show that this code family can perform reasonably well even at high code rates, thus considerably reducing the overhead compared to concatenated and surface codes. This makes these codes promising as storage blocks in fault-tolerant quantum computation. Error Correction using Quantum Quasi-Cyclic Low-Density Parity-Check(LDPC) Codes.

A Robust False Matching Points Detection Method for Remote Sensing Image Registration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, X. J.; Tang, P.

2015-04-01

Given the influences of illumination, imaging angle, and geometric distortion, among others, false matching points still occur in all image registration algorithms. Therefore, false matching points detection is an important step in remote sensing image registration. Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) is typically used to detect false matching points. However, RANSAC method cannot detect all false matching points in some remote sensing images. Therefore, a robust false matching points detection method based on Knearest- neighbour (K-NN) graph (KGD) is proposed in this method to obtain robust and high accuracy result. The KGD method starts with the construction of the K-NN graph in one image. K-NN graph can be first generated for each matching points and its K nearest matching points. Local transformation model for each matching point is then obtained by using its K nearest matching points. The error of each matching point is computed by using its transformation model. Last, L matching points with largest error are identified false matching points and removed. This process is iterative until all errors are smaller than the given threshold. In addition, KGD method can be used in combination with other methods, such as RANSAC. Several remote sensing images with different resolutions and terrains are used in the experiment. We evaluate the performance of KGD method, RANSAC + KGD method, RANSAC, and Graph Transformation Matching (GTM). The experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of the KGD and RANSAC + KGD methods.

Surgeon Training, Protocol Compliance, and Technical Outcomes From Breast Cancer Sentinel Lymph Node Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Ashikaga, Takamaru; Harlow, Seth P.; Skelly, Joan M.; Julian, Thomas B.; Brown, Ann M.; Weaver, Donald L.; Wolmark, Norman

2009-01-01

Background The National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-32 trial was designed to determine whether sentinel lymph node resection can achieve the same therapeutic outcomes as axillary lymph node resection but with fewer side effects and is one of the most carefully controlled and monitored randomized trials in the field of surgical oncology. We evaluated the relationship of surgeon trial preparation, protocol compliance audit, and technical outcomes. Methods Preparation for this trial included a protocol manual, a site visit with key participants, an intraoperative session with the surgeon, and prerandomization documentation of protocol compliance. Training categories included surgeons who submitted material on five prerandomization surgeries and were trained by a core trainer (category 1) or by a site trainer (category 2). An expedited group (category 3) included surgeons with extensive experience who submitted material on one prerandomization surgery. At completion of training, surgeons could accrue patients. Two hundred twenty-four surgeons enrolled 4994 patients with breast cancer and were audited for 94 specific items in the following four categories: procedural, operative note, pathology report, and data entry. The relationship of training method; protocol compliance performance audit; and the technical outcomes of the sentinel lymph node resection rate, false-negative rate, and number of sentinel lymph nodes removed was determined. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results The overall sentinel lymph node resection success rate was 96.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 96.4% to 97.4%), and the overall false-negative rate was 9.5% (95% CI = 7.4% to 12.0%), with no statistical differences between training methods. Overall audit outcomes were excellent in all four categories. For all three training groups combined, a statistically significant positive association was observed between surgeons’ average number of procedural errors and their false-negative rate (ρ = +0.188, P = .021). Conclusions All three training methods resulted in uniform and high overall sentinel lymph node resection rates. Subgroup analyses identified some variation in false-negative rates that were related to audited outcome performance measures. PMID:19704072

Executive Council lists and general practitioner files

PubMed Central

Farmer, R. D. T.; Knox, E. G.; Cross, K. W.; Crombie, D. L.

1974-01-01

An investigation of the accuracy of general practitioner and Executive Council files was approached by a comparison of the two. High error rates were found, including both file errors and record errors. On analysis it emerged that file error rates could not be satisfactorily expressed except in a time-dimensioned way, and we were unable to do this within the context of our study. Record error rates and field error rates were expressible as proportions of the number of records on both the lists; 79·2% of all records exhibited non-congruencies and particular information fields had error rates ranging from 0·8% (assignation of sex) to 68·6% (assignation of civil state). Many of the errors, both field errors and record errors, were attributable to delayed updating of mutable information. It is concluded that the simple transfer of Executive Council lists to a computer filing system would not solve all the inaccuracies and would not in itself permit Executive Council registers to be used for any health care applications requiring high accuracy. For this it would be necessary to design and implement a purpose designed health care record system which would include, rather than depend upon, the general practitioner remuneration system. PMID:4816588

False Memories for Affective Information in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Fairfield, Beth; Altamura, Mario; Padalino, Flavia A; Balzotti, Angela; Di Domenico, Alberto; Mammarella, Nicola

2016-01-01

Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, 24 patients and 24 healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative, or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls ( p  < 0.05) when remembering episodes with positive or negative outcomes. The effect of valence was apparent in the patient group. For example, it did not affect the production causal false memories ( p  > 0.05) resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e., neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes). Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved.

False Memories for Affective Information in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Fairfield, Beth; Altamura, Mario; Padalino, Flavia A.; Balzotti, Angela; Di Domenico, Alberto; Mammarella, Nicola

2016-01-01

Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, 24 patients and 24 healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative, or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls (p < 0.05) when remembering episodes with positive or negative outcomes. The effect of valence was apparent in the patient group. For example, it did not affect the production causal false memories (p > 0.05) resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e., neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes). Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved. PMID:27965600

What are incident reports telling us? A comparative study at two Australian hospitals of medication errors identified at audit, detected by staff and reported to an incident system

PubMed Central

Westbrook, Johanna I.; Li, Ling; Lehnbom, Elin C.; Baysari, Melissa T.; Braithwaite, Jeffrey; Burke, Rosemary; Conn, Chris; Day, Richard O.

2015-01-01

Objectives To (i) compare medication errors identified at audit and observation with medication incident reports; (ii) identify differences between two hospitals in incident report frequency and medication error rates; (iii) identify prescribing error detection rates by staff. Design Audit of 3291patient records at two hospitals to identify prescribing errors and evidence of their detection by staff. Medication administration errors were identified from a direct observational study of 180 nurses administering 7451 medications. Severity of errors was classified. Those likely to lead to patient harm were categorized as ‘clinically important’. Setting Two major academic teaching hospitals in Sydney, Australia. Main Outcome Measures Rates of medication errors identified from audit and from direct observation were compared with reported medication incident reports. Results A total of 12 567 prescribing errors were identified at audit. Of these 1.2/1000 errors (95% CI: 0.6–1.8) had incident reports. Clinically important prescribing errors (n = 539) were detected by staff at a rate of 218.9/1000 (95% CI: 184.0–253.8), but only 13.0/1000 (95% CI: 3.4–22.5) were reported. 78.1% (n = 421) of clinically important prescribing errors were not detected. A total of 2043 drug administrations (27.4%; 95% CI: 26.4–28.4%) contained ≥1 errors; none had an incident report. Hospital A had a higher frequency of incident reports than Hospital B, but a lower rate of errors at audit. Conclusions Prescribing errors with the potential to cause harm frequently go undetected. Reported incidents do not reflect the profile of medication errors which occur in hospitals or the underlying rates. This demonstrates the inaccuracy of using incident frequency to compare patient risk or quality performance within or across hospitals. New approaches including data mining of electronic clinical information systems are required to support more effective medication error detection and mitigation. PMID:25583702

Modelling eye movements in a categorical search task

PubMed Central

Zelinsky, Gregory J.; Adeli, Hossein; Peng, Yifan; Samaras, Dimitris

2013-01-01

We introduce a model of eye movements during categorical search, the task of finding and recognizing categorically defined targets. It extends a previous model of eye movements during search (target acquisition model, TAM) by using distances from an support vector machine classification boundary to create probability maps indicating pixel-by-pixel evidence for the target category in search images. Other additions include functionality enabling target-absent searches, and a fixation-based blurring of the search images now based on a mapping between visual and collicular space. We tested this model on images from a previously conducted variable set-size (6/13/20) present/absent search experiment where participants searched for categorically defined teddy bear targets among random category distractors. The model not only captured target-present/absent set-size effects, but also accurately predicted for all conditions the numbers of fixations made prior to search judgements. It also predicted the percentages of first eye movements during search landing on targets, a conservative measure of search guidance. Effects of set size on false negative and false positive errors were also captured, but error rates in general were overestimated. We conclude that visual features discriminating a target category from non-targets can be learned and used to guide eye movements during categorical search. PMID:24018720

False Recognition in Behavioral Variant Frontotemporal Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease-Disinhibition or Amnesia?

PubMed

Flanagan, Emma C; Wong, Stephanie; Dutt, Aparna; Tu, Sicong; Bertoux, Maxime; Irish, Muireann; Piguet, Olivier; Rao, Sulakshana; Hodges, John R; Ghosh, Amitabha; Hornberger, Michael

2016-01-01

Episodic memory recall processes in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) can be similarly impaired, whereas recognition performance is more variable. A potential reason for this variability could be false-positive errors made on recognition trials and whether these errors are due to amnesia per se or a general over-endorsement of recognition items regardless of memory. The current study addressed this issue by analysing recognition performance on the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT) in 39 bvFTD, 77 AD and 61 control participants from two centers (India, Australia), as well as disinhibition assessed using the Hayling test. Whereas both AD and bvFTD patients were comparably impaired on delayed recall, bvFTD patients showed intact recognition performance in terms of the number of correct hits. However, both patient groups endorsed significantly more false-positives than controls, and bvFTD and AD patients scored equally poorly on a sensitivity index (correct hits-false-positives). Furthermore, measures of disinhibition were significantly associated with false positives in both groups, with a stronger relationship with false-positives in bvFTD. Voxel-based morphometry analyses revealed similar neural correlates of false positive endorsement across bvFTD and AD, with both patient groups showing involvement of prefrontal and Papez circuitry regions, such as medial temporal and thalamic regions, and a DTI analysis detected an emerging but non-significant trend between false positives and decreased fornix integrity in bvFTD only. These findings suggest that false-positive errors on recognition tests relate to similar mechanisms in bvFTD and AD, reflecting deficits in episodic memory processes and disinhibition. These findings highlight that current memory tests are not sufficient to accurately distinguish between bvFTD and AD patients.

31 CFR 306.55 - Signatures, minor errors and change of name.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Signatures, minor errors and change... GOVERNING U.S. SECURITIES Assignments by or in Behalf of Individuals § 306.55 Signatures, minor errors and change of name. The owner's signature to an assignment should be in the form in which the security is...

12 CFR 205.8 - Change in terms notice; error resolution notice.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Change in terms notice; error resolution notice. 205.8 Section 205.8 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM ELECTRONIC FUND TRANSFERS (REGULATION E) § 205.8 Change in terms notice; error resolution notice...

Detecting genotyping errors and describing black bear movement in northern Idaho

Treesearch

Michael K. Schwartz; Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jim Hayden; Cory Engkjer

2006-01-01

Non-invasive genetic sampling has become a favored tool to enumerate wildlife. Genetic errors, caused by poor quality samples, can lead to substantial biases in numerical estimates of individuals. We demonstrate how the computer program DROPOUT can detect amplification errors (false alleles and allelic dropout) in a black bear (Ursus americanus) dataset collected in...

31 CFR 306.55 - Signatures, minor errors and change of name.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance:Treasury 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Signatures, minor errors and change of name. 306.55 Section 306.55 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance... GOVERNING U.S. SECURITIES Assignments by or in Behalf of Individuals § 306.55 Signatures, minor errors and...

12 CFR 205.8 - Change in terms notice; error resolution notice.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Change in terms notice; error resolution notice. 205.8 Section 205.8 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM ELECTRONIC FUND TRANSFERS (REGULATION E) § 205.8 Change in terms notice; error resolution notice...

Cognitive tests predict real-world errors: the relationship between drug name confusion rates in laboratory-based memory and perception tests and corresponding error rates in large pharmacy chains.

PubMed

Schroeder, Scott R; Salomon, Meghan M; Galanter, William L; Schiff, Gordon D; Vaida, Allen J; Gaunt, Michael J; Bryson, Michelle L; Rash, Christine; Falck, Suzanne; Lambert, Bruce L

2017-05-01

Drug name confusion is a common type of medication error and a persistent threat to patient safety. In the USA, roughly one per thousand prescriptions results in the wrong drug being filled, and most of these errors involve drug names that look or sound alike. Prior to approval, drug names undergo a variety of tests to assess their potential for confusability, but none of these preapproval tests has been shown to predict real-world error rates. We conducted a study to assess the association between error rates in laboratory-based tests of drug name memory and perception and real-world drug name confusion error rates. Eighty participants, comprising doctors, nurses, pharmacists, technicians and lay people, completed a battery of laboratory tests assessing visual perception, auditory perception and short-term memory of look-alike and sound-alike drug name pairs (eg, hydroxyzine/hydralazine). Laboratory test error rates (and other metrics) significantly predicted real-world error rates obtained from a large, outpatient pharmacy chain, with the best-fitting model accounting for 37% of the variance in real-world error rates. Cross-validation analyses confirmed these results, showing that the laboratory tests also predicted errors from a second pharmacy chain, with 45% of the variance being explained by the laboratory test data. Across two distinct pharmacy chains, there is a strong and significant association between drug name confusion error rates observed in the real world and those observed in laboratory-based tests of memory and perception. Regulators and drug companies seeking a validated preapproval method for identifying confusing drug names ought to consider using these simple tests. By using a standard battery of memory and perception tests, it should be possible to reduce the number of confusing look-alike and sound-alike drug name pairs that reach the market, which will help protect patients from potentially harmful medication errors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Secure and Privacy Enhanced Gait Authentication on Smart Phone

PubMed Central

Choi, Deokjai

2014-01-01

Smart environments established by the development of mobile technology have brought vast benefits to human being. However, authentication mechanisms on portable smart devices, particularly conventional biometric based approaches, still remain security and privacy concerns. These traditional systems are mostly based on pattern recognition and machine learning algorithms, wherein original biometric templates or extracted features are stored under unconcealed form for performing matching with a new biometric sample in the authentication phase. In this paper, we propose a novel gait based authentication using biometric cryptosystem to enhance the system security and user privacy on the smart phone. Extracted gait features are merely used to biometrically encrypt a cryptographic key which is acted as the authentication factor. Gait signals are acquired by using an inertial sensor named accelerometer in the mobile device and error correcting codes are adopted to deal with the natural variation of gait measurements. We evaluate our proposed system on a dataset consisting of gait samples of 34 volunteers. We achieved the lowest false acceptance rate (FAR) and false rejection rate (FRR) of 3.92% and 11.76%, respectively, in terms of key length of 50 bits. PMID:24955403

Self-authentication of value documents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayosh, Thomas D.

1998-04-01

To prevent fraud it is critical to distinguish an authentic document from a counterfeit or altered document. Most current technologies rely on difficult-to-print human detectable features which are added to a document to prevent illegal reproduction. Fraud detection is mostly accomplished by human observation and is based upon the examiner's knowledge, experience and time allotted for examination of a document. Another approach to increasing the security of a value document is to add a unique property to each document. Data about that property is then encoded on the document itself and finally secured using a public key based digital signature. In such a scheme, machine readability of authenticity is possible. This paper describes a patent-applied-for methodology using the unique property of magnetic ink printing, magnetic remanence, that provides for full self- authentication when used with a recordable magnetic stripe for storing a digital signature and other document data. Traditionally the authenticity of a document is determined by physical examination for color, background printing, paper texture, printing resolution, and ink characteristics. On an initial level, there may be numerous security features present on a value document but only a few can be detected and evaluated by the untrained individual. Because security features are normally not standardized except on currency, training tellers and cashiers to do extensive security evaluation is not practical, even though these people are often the only people who get a chance to closely examine the document in a payment system which is back-end automated. In the context of this paper, one should be thinking about value documents such as commercial and personal checks although the concepts presented here can easily be applied to travelers cheques, credit cards, event tickets, passports, driver's licenses, motor vehicle titles, and even currency. For a practical self-authentication system, the false alarms should be less than 1% on the first read pass. Causes of false alarms could be the lack of robustness of the taggant discrimination algorithm, excessive document skew as it is being read, or errors in reading the recordable stripe. The false alarm rate is readily tested by reading the magnetic tags and digitally signing documents in one reader and performing authentication in at least two other reading devices. When reading the same check in the same reader where signed, the error metric is typically in the range of 0.0600. When comparing different checks in different readers, the error metric generally reports values in the range of 0.3930. It is clear from tests to date that the taggant patterns are randomly different for checks even when printed serially one after another using the same printing process. Testing results to date on the robustness of the taggant comparison and discrimination algorithms indicate that it is probable that low false alarms and very low false accept rates will be achieved.

Quality Control of High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy: Treatment Delivery Analysis Using Statistical Process Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Able, Charles M., E-mail: cable@wfubmc.edu; Bright, Megan; Frizzell, Bart

Purpose: Statistical process control (SPC) is a quality control method used to ensure that a process is well controlled and operates with little variation. This study determined whether SPC was a viable technique for evaluating the proper operation of a high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy treatment delivery system. Methods and Materials: A surrogate prostate patient was developed using Vyse ordnance gelatin. A total of 10 metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) were placed from prostate base to apex. Computed tomography guidance was used to accurately position the first detector in each train at the base. The plan consisted of 12 needles withmore » 129 dwell positions delivering a prescribed peripheral dose of 200 cGy. Sixteen accurate treatment trials were delivered as planned. Subsequently, a number of treatments were delivered with errors introduced, including wrong patient, wrong source calibration, wrong connection sequence, single needle displaced inferiorly 5 mm, and entire implant displaced 2 mm and 4 mm inferiorly. Two process behavior charts (PBC), an individual and a moving range chart, were developed for each dosimeter location. Results: There were 4 false positives resulting from 160 measurements from 16 accurately delivered treatments. For the inaccurately delivered treatments, the PBC indicated that measurements made at the periphery and apex (regions of high-dose gradient) were much more sensitive to treatment delivery errors. All errors introduced were correctly identified by either the individual or the moving range PBC in the apex region. Measurements at the urethra and base were less sensitive to errors. Conclusions: SPC is a viable method for assessing the quality of HDR treatment delivery. Further development is necessary to determine the most effective dose sampling, to ensure reproducible evaluation of treatment delivery accuracy.« less

Evaluation of the importance of time-frequency contributions to speech intelligibility in noise

PubMed Central

Yu, Chengzhu; Wójcicki, Kamil K.; Loizou, Philipos C.; Hansen, John H. L.; Johnson, Michael T.

2014-01-01

Recent studies on binary masking techniques make the assumption that each time-frequency (T-F) unit contributes an equal amount to the overall intelligibility of speech. The present study demonstrated that the importance of each T-F unit to speech intelligibility varies in accordance with speech content. Specifically, T-F units are categorized into two classes, speech-present T-F units and speech-absent T-F units. Results indicate that the importance of each speech-present T-F unit to speech intelligibility is highly related to the loudness of its target component, while the importance of each speech-absent T-F unit varies according to the loudness of its masker component. Two types of mask errors are also considered, which include miss and false alarm errors. Consistent with previous work, false alarm errors are shown to be more harmful to speech intelligibility than miss errors when the mixture signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is below 0 dB. However, the relative importance between the two types of error is conditioned on the SNR level of the input speech signal. Based on these observations, a mask-based objective measure, the loudness weighted hit-false, is proposed for predicting speech intelligibility. The proposed objective measure shows significantly higher correlation with intelligibility compared to two existing mask-based objective measures. PMID:24815280

Classification based upon gene expression data: bias and precision of error rates.

PubMed

Wood, Ian A; Visscher, Peter M; Mengersen, Kerrie L

2007-06-01

Gene expression data offer a large number of potentially useful predictors for the classification of tissue samples into classes, such as diseased and non-diseased. The predictive error rate of classifiers can be estimated using methods such as cross-validation. We have investigated issues of interpretation and potential bias in the reporting of error rate estimates. The issues considered here are optimization and selection biases, sampling effects, measures of misclassification rate, baseline error rates, two-level external cross-validation and a novel proposal for detection of bias using the permutation mean. Reporting an optimal estimated error rate incurs an optimization bias. Downward bias of 3-5% was found in an existing study of classification based on gene expression data and may be endemic in similar studies. Using a simulated non-informative dataset and two example datasets from existing studies, we show how bias can be detected through the use of label permutations and avoided using two-level external cross-validation. Some studies avoid optimization bias by using single-level cross-validation and a test set, but error rates can be more accurately estimated via two-level cross-validation. In addition to estimating the simple overall error rate, we recommend reporting class error rates plus where possible the conditional risk incorporating prior class probabilities and a misclassification cost matrix. We also describe baseline error rates derived from three trivial classifiers which ignore the predictors. R code which implements two-level external cross-validation with the PAMR package, experiment code, dataset details and additional figures are freely available for non-commercial use from http://www.maths.qut.edu.au/profiles/wood/permr.jsp

Do Errors on Classroom Reading Tasks Slow Growth in Reading? Technical Report No. 404.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Richard C.; And Others

A pervasive finding from research on teaching and classroom learning is that a low rate of error on classroom tasks is associated with large year to year gains in achievement, particularly for reading in the primary grades. The finding of a negative relationship between error rate, especially rate of oral reading errors, and gains in reading…

Estimating genotype error rates from high-coverage next-generation sequence data.

PubMed

Wall, Jeffrey D; Tang, Ling Fung; Zerbe, Brandon; Kvale, Mark N; Kwok, Pui-Yan; Schaefer, Catherine; Risch, Neil

2014-11-01

Exome and whole-genome sequencing studies are becoming increasingly common, but little is known about the accuracy of the genotype calls made by the commonly used platforms. Here we use replicate high-coverage sequencing of blood and saliva DNA samples from four European-American individuals to estimate lower bounds on the error rates of Complete Genomics and Illumina HiSeq whole-genome and whole-exome sequencing. Error rates for nonreference genotype calls range from 0.1% to 0.6%, depending on the platform and the depth of coverage. Additionally, we found (1) no difference in the error profiles or rates between blood and saliva samples; (2) Complete Genomics sequences had substantially higher error rates than Illumina sequences had; (3) error rates were higher (up to 6%) for rare or unique variants; (4) error rates generally declined with genotype quality (GQ) score, but in a nonlinear fashion for the Illumina data, likely due to loss of specificity of GQ scores greater than 60; and (5) error rates increased with increasing depth of coverage for the Illumina data. These findings, especially (3)-(5), suggest that caution should be taken in interpreting the results of next-generation sequencing-based association studies, and even more so in clinical application of this technology in the absence of validation by other more robust sequencing or genotyping methods. © 2014 Wall et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Choice of Reference Sequence and Assembler for Alignment of Listeria monocytogenes Short-Read Sequence Data Greatly Influences Rates of Error in SNP Analyses

PubMed Central

Pightling, Arthur W.; Petronella, Nicholas; Pagotto, Franco

2014-01-01

The wide availability of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and an abundance of open-source software have made detection of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in bacterial genomes an increasingly accessible and effective tool for comparative analyses. Thus, ensuring that real nucleotide differences between genomes (i.e., true SNPs) are detected at high rates and that the influences of errors (such as false positive SNPs, ambiguously called sites, and gaps) are mitigated is of utmost importance. The choices researchers make regarding the generation and analysis of WGS data can greatly influence the accuracy of short-read sequence alignments and, therefore, the efficacy of such experiments. We studied the effects of some of these choices, including: i) depth of sequencing coverage, ii) choice of reference-guided short-read sequence assembler, iii) choice of reference genome, and iv) whether to perform read-quality filtering and trimming, on our ability to detect true SNPs and on the frequencies of errors. We performed benchmarking experiments, during which we assembled simulated and real Listeria monocytogenes strain 08-5578 short-read sequence datasets of varying quality with four commonly used assemblers (BWA, MOSAIK, Novoalign, and SMALT), using reference genomes of varying genetic distances, and with or without read pre-processing (i.e., quality filtering and trimming). We found that assemblies of at least 50-fold coverage provided the most accurate results. In addition, MOSAIK yielded the fewest errors when reads were aligned to a nearly identical reference genome, while using SMALT to align reads against a reference sequence that is ∼0.82% distant from 08-5578 at the nucleotide level resulted in the detection of the greatest numbers of true SNPs and the fewest errors. Finally, we show that whether read pre-processing improves SNP detection depends upon the choice of reference sequence and assembler. In total, this study demonstrates that researchers should test a variety of conditions to achieve optimal results. PMID:25144537

Speech Errors across the Lifespan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vousden, Janet I.; Maylor, Elizabeth A.

2006-01-01

Dell, Burger, and Svec (1997) proposed that the proportion of speech errors classified as anticipations (e.g., "moot and mouth") can be predicted solely from the overall error rate, such that the greater the error rate, the lower the anticipatory proportion (AP) of errors. We report a study examining whether this effect applies to changes in error…

Computer calculated dose in paediatric prescribing.

PubMed

Kirk, Richard C; Li-Meng Goh, Denise; Packia, Jeya; Min Kam, Huey; Ong, Benjamin K C

2005-01-01

Medication errors are an important cause of hospital-based morbidity and mortality. However, only a few medication error studies have been conducted in children. These have mainly quantified errors in the inpatient setting; there is very little data available on paediatric outpatient and emergency department medication errors and none on discharge medication. This deficiency is of concern because medication errors are more common in children and it has been suggested that the risk of an adverse drug event as a consequence of a medication error is higher in children than in adults. The aims of this study were to assess the rate of medication errors in predominantly ambulatory paediatric patients and the effect of computer calculated doses on medication error rates of two commonly prescribed drugs. This was a prospective cohort study performed in a paediatric unit in a university teaching hospital between March 2003 and August 2003. The hospital's existing computer clinical decision support system was modified so that doctors could choose the traditional prescription method or the enhanced method of computer calculated dose when prescribing paracetamol (acetaminophen) or promethazine. All prescriptions issued to children (<16 years of age) at the outpatient clinic, emergency department and at discharge from the inpatient service were analysed. A medication error was defined as to have occurred if there was an underdose (below the agreed value), an overdose (above the agreed value), no frequency of administration specified, no dose given or excessive total daily dose. The medication error rates and the factors influencing medication error rates were determined using SPSS version 12. From March to August 2003, 4281 prescriptions were issued. Seven prescriptions (0.16%) were excluded, hence 4274 prescriptions were analysed. Most prescriptions were issued by paediatricians (including neonatologists and paediatric surgeons) and/or junior doctors. The error rate in the children's emergency department was 15.7%, for outpatients was 21.5% and for discharge medication was 23.6%. Most errors were the result of an underdose (64%; 536/833). The computer calculated dose error rate was 12.6% compared with the traditional prescription error rate of 28.2%. Logistical regression analysis showed that computer calculated dose was an important and independent variable influencing the error rate (adjusted relative risk = 0.436, 95% CI 0.336, 0.520, p < 0.001). Other important independent variables were seniority and paediatric training of the person prescribing and the type of drug prescribed. Medication error, especially underdose, is common in outpatient, emergency department and discharge prescriptions. Computer calculated doses can significantly reduce errors, but other risk factors have to be concurrently addressed to achieve maximum benefit.

Parametric vs. non-parametric statistics of low resolution electromagnetic tomography (LORETA).

PubMed

Thatcher, R W; North, D; Biver, C

2005-01-01

This study compared the relative statistical sensitivity of non-parametric and parametric statistics of 3-dimensional current sources as estimated by the EEG inverse solution Low Resolution Electromagnetic Tomography (LORETA). One would expect approximately 5% false positives (classification of a normal as abnormal) at the P < .025 level of probability (two tailed test) and approximately 1% false positives at the P < .005 level. EEG digital samples (2 second intervals sampled 128 Hz, 1 to 2 minutes eyes closed) from 43 normal adult subjects were imported into the Key Institute's LORETA program. We then used the Key Institute's cross-spectrum and the Key Institute's LORETA output files (*.lor) as the 2,394 gray matter pixel representation of 3-dimensional currents at different frequencies. The mean and standard deviation *.lor files were computed for each of the 2,394 gray matter pixels for each of the 43 subjects. Tests of Gaussianity and different transforms were computed in order to best approximate a normal distribution for each frequency and gray matter pixel. The relative sensitivity of parametric vs. non-parametric statistics were compared using a "leave-one-out" cross validation method in which individual normal subjects were withdrawn and then statistically classified as being either normal or abnormal based on the remaining subjects. Log10 transforms approximated Gaussian distribution in the range of 95% to 99% accuracy. Parametric Z score tests at P < .05 cross-validation demonstrated an average misclassification rate of approximately 4.25%, and range over the 2,394 gray matter pixels was 27.66% to 0.11%. At P < .01 parametric Z score cross-validation false positives were 0.26% and ranged from 6.65% to 0% false positives. The non-parametric Key Institute's t-max statistic at P < .05 had an average misclassification error rate of 7.64% and ranged from 43.37% to 0.04% false positives. The nonparametric t-max at P < .01 had an average misclassification rate of 6.67% and ranged from 41.34% to 0% false positives of the 2,394 gray matter pixels for any cross-validated normal subject. In conclusion, adequate approximation to Gaussian distribution and high cross-validation can be achieved by the Key Institute's LORETA programs by using a log10 transform and parametric statistics, and parametric normative comparisons had lower false positive rates than the non-parametric tests.

Design of analytical failure detection using secondary observers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sisar, M.

1982-01-01

The problem of designing analytical failure-detection systems (FDS) for sensors and actuators, using observers, is addressed. The use of observers in FDS is related to the examination of the n-dimensional observer error vector which carries the necessary information on possible failures. The problem is that in practical systems, in which only some of the components of the state vector are measured, one has access only to the m-dimensional observer-output error vector, with m or = to n. In order to cope with these cases, a secondary observer is synthesized to reconstruct the entire observer-error vector from the observer output error vector. This approach leads toward the design of highly sensitive and reliable FDS, with the possibility of obtaining a unique fingerprint for every possible failure. In order to keep the observer's (or Kalman filter) false-alarm rate under a certain specified value, it is necessary to have an acceptable matching between the observer (or Kalman filter) models and the system parameters. A previously developed adaptive observer algorithm is used to maintain the desired system-observer model matching, despite initial mismatching or system parameter variations. Conditions for convergence for the adaptive process are obtained, leading to a simple adaptive law (algorithm) with the possibility of an a priori choice of fixed adaptive gains. Simulation results show good tracking performance with small observer output errors, while accurate and fast parameter identification, in both deterministic and stochastic cases, is obtained.

Angular rate optimal design for the rotary strapdown inertial navigation system.

PubMed

Yu, Fei; Sun, Qian

2014-04-22

Due to the characteristics of high precision for a long duration, the rotary strapdown inertial navigation system (RSINS) has been widely used in submarines and surface ships. Nowadays, the core technology, the rotating scheme, has been studied by numerous researchers. It is well known that as one of the key technologies, the rotating angular rate seriously influences the effectiveness of the error modulating. In order to design the optimal rotating angular rate of the RSINS, the relationship between the rotating angular rate and the velocity error of the RSINS was analyzed in detail based on the Laplace transform and the inverse Laplace transform in this paper. The analysis results showed that the velocity error of the RSINS depends on not only the sensor error, but also the rotating angular rate. In order to minimize the velocity error, the rotating angular rate of the RSINS should match the sensor error. One optimal design method for the rotating rate of the RSINS was also proposed in this paper. Simulation and experimental results verified the validity and superiority of this optimal design method for the rotating rate of the RSINS.

Comparison of Meropenem MICs and Susceptibilities for Carbapenemase-Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae Isolates by Various Testing Methods▿

PubMed Central

Bulik, Catharine C.; Fauntleroy, Kathy A.; Jenkins, Stephen G.; Abuali, Mayssa; LaBombardi, Vincent J.; Nicolau, David P.; Kuti, Joseph L.

2010-01-01

We describe the levels of agreement between broth microdilution, Etest, Vitek 2, Sensititre, and MicroScan methods to accurately define the meropenem MIC and categorical interpretation of susceptibility against carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC). A total of 46 clinical K. pneumoniae isolates with KPC genotypes, all modified Hodge test and blaKPC positive, collected from two hospitals in NY were included. Results obtained by each method were compared with those from broth microdilution (the reference method), and agreement was assessed based on MICs and Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) interpretative criteria using 2010 susceptibility breakpoints. Based on broth microdilution, 0%, 2.2%, and 97.8% of the KPC isolates were classified as susceptible, intermediate, and resistant to meropenem, respectively. Results from MicroScan demonstrated the most agreement with those from broth microdilution, with 95.6% agreement based on the MIC and 2.2% classified as minor errors, and no major or very major errors. Etest demonstrated 82.6% agreement with broth microdilution MICs, a very major error rate of 2.2%, and a minor error rate of 2.2%. Vitek 2 MIC agreement was 30.4%, with a 23.9% very major error rate and a 39.1% minor error rate. Sensititre demonstrated MIC agreement for 26.1% of isolates, with a 3% very major error rate and a 26.1% minor error rate. Application of FDA breakpoints had little effect on minor error rates but increased very major error rates to 58.7% for Vitek 2 and Sensititre. Meropenem MIC results and categorical interpretations for carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae differ by methodology. Confirmation of testing results is encouraged when an accurate MIC is required for antibiotic dosing optimization. PMID:20484603

The effectiveness of the error reporting promoting program on the nursing error incidence rate in Korean operating rooms.

PubMed

Kim, Myoung-Soo; Kim, Jung-Soon; Jung, In Sook; Kim, Young Hae; Kim, Ho Jung

2007-03-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate an error reporting promoting program(ERPP) to systematically reduce the incidence rate of nursing errors in operating room. A non-equivalent control group non-synchronized design was used. Twenty-six operating room nurses who were in one university hospital in Busan participated in this study. They were stratified into four groups according to their operating room experience and were allocated to the experimental and control groups using a matching method. Mann-Whitney U Test was used to analyze the differences pre and post incidence rates of nursing errors between the two groups. The incidence rate of nursing errors decreased significantly in the experimental group compared to the pre-test score from 28.4% to 15.7%. The incidence rate by domains, it decreased significantly in the 3 domains-"compliance of aseptic technique", "management of document", "environmental management" in the experimental group while it decreased in the control group which was applied ordinary error-reporting method. Error-reporting system can make possible to hold the errors in common and to learn from them. ERPP was effective to reduce the errors of recognition-related nursing activities. For the wake of more effective error-prevention, we will be better to apply effort of risk management along the whole health care system with this program.

Validation Relaxation: A Quality Assurance Strategy for Electronic Data Collection

PubMed Central

Gordon, Nicholas; Griffiths, Thomas; Kraemer, John D; Siedner, Mark J

2017-01-01

Background The use of mobile devices for data collection in developing world settings is becoming increasingly common and may offer advantages in data collection quality and efficiency relative to paper-based methods. However, mobile data collection systems can hamper many standard quality assurance techniques due to the lack of a hardcopy backup of data. Consequently, mobile health data collection platforms have the potential to generate datasets that appear valid, but are susceptible to unidentified database design flaws, areas of miscomprehension by enumerators, and data recording errors. Objective We describe the design and evaluation of a strategy for estimating data error rates and assessing enumerator performance during electronic data collection, which we term “validation relaxation.” Validation relaxation involves the intentional omission of data validation features for select questions to allow for data recording errors to be committed, detected, and monitored. Methods We analyzed data collected during a cluster sample population survey in rural Liberia using an electronic data collection system (Open Data Kit). We first developed a classification scheme for types of detectable errors and validation alterations required to detect them. We then implemented the following validation relaxation techniques to enable data error conduct and detection: intentional redundancy, removal of “required” constraint, and illogical response combinations. This allowed for up to 11 identifiable errors to be made per survey. The error rate was defined as the total number of errors committed divided by the number of potential errors. We summarized crude error rates and estimated changes in error rates over time for both individuals and the entire program using logistic regression. Results The aggregate error rate was 1.60% (125/7817). Error rates did not differ significantly between enumerators (P=.51), but decreased for the cohort with increasing days of application use, from 2.3% at survey start (95% CI 1.8%-2.8%) to 0.6% at day 45 (95% CI 0.3%-0.9%; OR=0.969; P<.001). The highest error rate (84/618, 13.6%) occurred for an intentional redundancy question for a birthdate field, which was repeated in separate sections of the survey. We found low error rates (0.0% to 3.1%) for all other possible errors. Conclusions A strategy of removing validation rules on electronic data capture platforms can be used to create a set of detectable data errors, which can subsequently be used to assess group and individual enumerator error rates, their trends over time, and categories of data collection that require further training or additional quality control measures. This strategy may be particularly useful for identifying individual enumerators or systematic data errors that are responsive to enumerator training and is best applied to questions for which errors cannot be prevented through training or software design alone. Validation relaxation should be considered as a component of a holistic data quality assurance strategy. PMID:28821474

Validation Relaxation: A Quality Assurance Strategy for Electronic Data Collection.

PubMed

Kenny, Avi; Gordon, Nicholas; Griffiths, Thomas; Kraemer, John D; Siedner, Mark J

2017-08-18

The use of mobile devices for data collection in developing world settings is becoming increasingly common and may offer advantages in data collection quality and efficiency relative to paper-based methods. However, mobile data collection systems can hamper many standard quality assurance techniques due to the lack of a hardcopy backup of data. Consequently, mobile health data collection platforms have the potential to generate datasets that appear valid, but are susceptible to unidentified database design flaws, areas of miscomprehension by enumerators, and data recording errors. We describe the design and evaluation of a strategy for estimating data error rates and assessing enumerator performance during electronic data collection, which we term "validation relaxation." Validation relaxation involves the intentional omission of data validation features for select questions to allow for data recording errors to be committed, detected, and monitored. We analyzed data collected during a cluster sample population survey in rural Liberia using an electronic data collection system (Open Data Kit). We first developed a classification scheme for types of detectable errors and validation alterations required to detect them. We then implemented the following validation relaxation techniques to enable data error conduct and detection: intentional redundancy, removal of "required" constraint, and illogical response combinations. This allowed for up to 11 identifiable errors to be made per survey. The error rate was defined as the total number of errors committed divided by the number of potential errors. We summarized crude error rates and estimated changes in error rates over time for both individuals and the entire program using logistic regression. The aggregate error rate was 1.60% (125/7817). Error rates did not differ significantly between enumerators (P=.51), but decreased for the cohort with increasing days of application use, from 2.3% at survey start (95% CI 1.8%-2.8%) to 0.6% at day 45 (95% CI 0.3%-0.9%; OR=0.969; P<.001). The highest error rate (84/618, 13.6%) occurred for an intentional redundancy question for a birthdate field, which was repeated in separate sections of the survey. We found low error rates (0.0% to 3.1%) for all other possible errors. A strategy of removing validation rules on electronic data capture platforms can be used to create a set of detectable data errors, which can subsequently be used to assess group and individual enumerator error rates, their trends over time, and categories of data collection that require further training or additional quality control measures. This strategy may be particularly useful for identifying individual enumerators or systematic data errors that are responsive to enumerator training and is best applied to questions for which errors cannot be prevented through training or software design alone. Validation relaxation should be considered as a component of a holistic data quality assurance strategy. ©Avi Kenny, Nicholas Gordon, Thomas Griffiths, John D Kraemer, Mark J Siedner. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 18.08.2017.

Limitations of Surface Mapping Technology in Accurately Identifying Critical Errors in Dental Students' Crown Preparations.

PubMed

Furness, Alan R; Callan, Richard S; Mackert, J Rodway; Mollica, Anthony G

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Planmeca Compare software in identifying and quantifying a common critical error in dental students' crown preparations. In 2014-17, a study was conducted at one U.S. dental school that evaluated an ideal crown prep made by a faculty member on a dentoform to modified preps. Two types of preparation errors were created by the addition of flowable composite to the occlusal surface of identical dies of the preparations to represent the underreduction of the distolingual cusp. The error was divided into two classes: the minor class allowed for 1 mm of occlusal clearance, and the major class allowed for no occlusal clearance. The preparations were then digitally evaluated against the ideal preparation using Planmeca Compare. Percent comparison values were obtained from each trial and averaged together. False positives and false negatives were also identified and used to determine the accuracy of the evaluation. Critical errors that did not involve a substantial change in the surface area of the preparation were inconsistently identified. Within the limitations of this study, the authors concluded that the Compare software was unable to consistently identify common critical errors within an acceptable degree of error.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morley, Steven

The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient ofmore » variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.« less

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part 1; Improved Method and Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Yang, Song; Petty, Grant W.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Bell, Thomas L.; Braun, Scott A.; Wang, Yansen; Lang, Stephen E.; Johnson, Daniel E.;

Inferential false memories of events: negative consequences protect from distortions when the events are free from further elaboration.

PubMed

Mirandola, Chiara; Toffalini, Enrico; Grassano, Massimo; Cornoldi, Cesare; Melinder, Annika

2014-01-01

The present experiment was conducted to investigate whether negative emotionally charged and arousing content of to-be-remembered scripted material would affect propensity towards memory distortions. We further investigated whether elaboration of the studied material through free recall would affect the magnitude of memory errors. In this study participants saw eight scripts. Each of the scripts included an effect of an action, the cause of which was not presented. Effects were either negatively emotional or neutral. Participants were assigned to either a yes/no recognition test group (recognition), or to a recall and yes/no recognition test group (elaboration + recognition). Results showed that participants in the recognition group produced fewer memory errors in the emotional condition. Conversely, elaboration + recognition participants had lower accuracy and produced more emotional memory errors than the other group, suggesting a mediating role of semantic elaboration on the generation of false memories. The role of emotions and semantic elaboration on the generation of false memories is discussed.

5 CFR 839.1002 - Will OPM compute the lost earnings if my qualifying retirement coverage error was previously...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Will OPM compute the lost earnings if my... compute the lost earnings if my qualifying retirement coverage error was previously corrected and I made... coverage error was previously corrected, OPM will compute the lost earnings on your make-up contributions...

Crystal Genetics, Inc.

PubMed

Kermani, Bahram G

2016-07-01

Crystal Genetics, Inc. is an early-stage genetic test company, focused on achieving the highest possible clinical-grade accuracy and comprehensiveness for detecting germline (e.g., in hereditary cancer) and somatic (e.g., in early cancer detection) mutations. Crystal's mission is to significantly improve the health status of the population, by providing high accuracy, comprehensive, flexible and affordable genetic tests, primarily in cancer. Crystal's philosophy is that when it comes to detecting mutations that are strongly correlated with life-threatening diseases, the detection accuracy of every single mutation counts: a single false-positive error could cause severe anxiety for the patient. And, more importantly, a single false-negative error could potentially cost the patient's life. Crystal's objective is to eliminate both of these error types.

Recognition errors suggest fast familiarity and slow recollection in rhesus monkeys

PubMed Central

Basile, Benjamin M.; Hampton, Robert R.

2013-01-01

One influential model of recognition posits two underlying memory processes: recollection, which is detailed but relatively slow, and familiarity, which is quick but lacks detail. Most of the evidence for this dual-process model in nonhumans has come from analyses of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in rats, but whether ROC analyses can demonstrate dual processes has been repeatedly challenged. Here, we present independent converging evidence for the dual-process model from analyses of recognition errors made by rhesus monkeys. Recognition choices were made in three different ways depending on processing duration. Short-latency errors were disproportionately false alarms to familiar lures, suggesting control by familiarity. Medium-latency responses were less likely to be false alarms and were more accurate, suggesting onset of a recollective process that could correctly reject familiar lures. Long-latency responses were guesses. A response deadline increased false alarms, suggesting that limiting processing time weakened the contribution of recollection and strengthened the contribution of familiarity. Together, these findings suggest fast familiarity and slow recollection in monkeys, that monkeys use a “recollect to reject” strategy to countermand false familiarity, and that primate recognition performance is well-characterized by a dual-process model consisting of recollection and familiarity. PMID:23864646

An error criterion for determining sampling rates in closed-loop control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brecher, S. M.

1972-01-01

The determination of an error criterion which will give a sampling rate for adequate performance of linear, time-invariant closed-loop, discrete-data control systems was studied. The proper modelling of the closed-loop control system for characterization of the error behavior, and the determination of an absolute error definition for performance of the two commonly used holding devices are discussed. The definition of an adequate relative error criterion as a function of the sampling rate and the parameters characterizing the system is established along with the determination of sampling rates. The validity of the expressions for the sampling interval was confirmed by computer simulations. Their application solves the problem of making a first choice in the selection of sampling rates.

What are incident reports telling us? A comparative study at two Australian hospitals of medication errors identified at audit, detected by staff and reported to an incident system.

PubMed

Westbrook, Johanna I; Li, Ling; Lehnbom, Elin C; Baysari, Melissa T; Braithwaite, Jeffrey; Burke, Rosemary; Conn, Chris; Day, Richard O

2015-02-01

To (i) compare medication errors identified at audit and observation with medication incident reports; (ii) identify differences between two hospitals in incident report frequency and medication error rates; (iii) identify prescribing error detection rates by staff. Audit of 3291 patient records at two hospitals to identify prescribing errors and evidence of their detection by staff. Medication administration errors were identified from a direct observational study of 180 nurses administering 7451 medications. Severity of errors was classified. Those likely to lead to patient harm were categorized as 'clinically important'. Two major academic teaching hospitals in Sydney, Australia. Rates of medication errors identified from audit and from direct observation were compared with reported medication incident reports. A total of 12 567 prescribing errors were identified at audit. Of these 1.2/1000 errors (95% CI: 0.6-1.8) had incident reports. Clinically important prescribing errors (n = 539) were detected by staff at a rate of 218.9/1000 (95% CI: 184.0-253.8), but only 13.0/1000 (95% CI: 3.4-22.5) were reported. 78.1% (n = 421) of clinically important prescribing errors were not detected. A total of 2043 drug administrations (27.4%; 95% CI: 26.4-28.4%) contained ≥ 1 errors; none had an incident report. Hospital A had a higher frequency of incident reports than Hospital B, but a lower rate of errors at audit. Prescribing errors with the potential to cause harm frequently go undetected. Reported incidents do not reflect the profile of medication errors which occur in hospitals or the underlying rates. This demonstrates the inaccuracy of using incident frequency to compare patient risk or quality performance within or across hospitals. New approaches including data mining of electronic clinical information systems are required to support more effective medication error detection and mitigation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care.

Classification of radiological errors in chest radiographs, using support vector machine on the spatial frequency features of false- negative and false-positive regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrzyk, Mariusz W.; Donovan, Tim; Brennan, Patrick C.; Dix, Alan; Manning, David J.

2011-03-01

Aim: To optimize automated classification of radiological errors during lung nodule detection from chest radiographs (CxR) using a support vector machine (SVM) run on the spatial frequency features extracted from the local background of selected regions. Background: The majority of the unreported pulmonary nodules are visually detected but not recognized; shown by the prolonged dwell time values at false-negative regions. Similarly, overestimated nodule locations are capturing substantial amounts of foveal attention. Spatial frequency properties of selected local backgrounds are correlated with human observer responses either in terms of accuracy in indicating abnormality position or in the precision of visual sampling the medical images. Methods: Seven radiologists participated in the eye tracking experiments conducted under conditions of pulmonary nodule detection from a set of 20 postero-anterior CxR. The most dwelled locations have been identified and subjected to spatial frequency (SF) analysis. The image-based features of selected ROI were extracted with un-decimated Wavelet Packet Transform. An analysis of variance was run to select SF features and a SVM schema was implemented to classify False-Negative and False-Positive from all ROI. Results: A relative high overall accuracy was obtained for each individually developed Wavelet-SVM algorithm, with over 90% average correct ratio for errors recognition from all prolonged dwell locations. Conclusion: The preliminary results show that combined eye-tracking and image-based features can be used for automated detection of radiological error with SVM. The work is still in progress and not all analytical procedures have been completed, which might have an effect on the specificity of the algorithm.

Technological Advancements and Error Rates in Radiation Therapy Delivery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Margalit, Danielle N., E-mail: dmargalit@partners.org; Harvard Cancer Consortium and Brigham and Women's Hospital/Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA; Chen, Yu-Hui

2011-11-15

Purpose: Technological advances in radiation therapy (RT) delivery have the potential to reduce errors via increased automation and built-in quality assurance (QA) safeguards, yet may also introduce new types of errors. Intensity-modulated RT (IMRT) is an increasingly used technology that is more technically complex than three-dimensional (3D)-conformal RT and conventional RT. We determined the rate of reported errors in RT delivery among IMRT and 3D/conventional RT treatments and characterized the errors associated with the respective techniques to improve existing QA processes. Methods and Materials: All errors in external beam RT delivery were prospectively recorded via a nonpunitive error-reporting system atmore » Brigham and Women's Hospital/Dana Farber Cancer Institute. Errors are defined as any unplanned deviation from the intended RT treatment and are reviewed during monthly departmental quality improvement meetings. We analyzed all reported errors since the routine use of IMRT in our department, from January 2004 to July 2009. Fisher's exact test was used to determine the association between treatment technique (IMRT vs. 3D/conventional) and specific error types. Effect estimates were computed using logistic regression. Results: There were 155 errors in RT delivery among 241,546 fractions (0.06%), and none were clinically significant. IMRT was commonly associated with errors in machine parameters (nine of 19 errors) and data entry and interpretation (six of 19 errors). IMRT was associated with a lower rate of reported errors compared with 3D/conventional RT (0.03% vs. 0.07%, p = 0.001) and specifically fewer accessory errors (odds ratio, 0.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.78) and setup errors (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.79). Conclusions: The rate of errors in RT delivery is low. The types of errors differ significantly between IMRT and 3D/conventional RT, suggesting that QA processes must be uniquely adapted for each technique. There was a lower error rate with IMRT compared with 3D/conventional RT, highlighting the need for sustained vigilance against errors common to more traditional treatment techniques.« less

Error Rate Comparison during Polymerase Chain Reaction by DNA Polymerase

DOE PAGES

McInerney, Peter; Adams, Paul; Hadi, Masood Z.

2014-01-01

As larger-scale cloning projects become more prevalent, there is an increasing need for comparisons among high fidelity DNA polymerases used for PCR amplification. All polymerases marketed for PCR applications are tested for fidelity properties (i.e., error rate determination) by vendors, and numerous literature reports have addressed PCR enzyme fidelity. Nonetheless, it is often difficult to make direct comparisons among different enzymes due to numerous methodological and analytical differences from study to study. We have measured the error rates for 6 DNA polymerases commonly used in PCR applications, including 3 polymerases typically used for cloning applications requiring high fidelity. Error ratemore » measurement values reported here were obtained by direct sequencing of cloned PCR products. The strategy employed here allows interrogation of error rate across a very large DNA sequence space, since 94 unique DNA targets were used as templates for PCR cloning. The six enzymes included in the study, Taq polymerase, AccuPrime-Taq High Fidelity, KOD Hot Start, cloned Pfu polymerase, Phusion Hot Start, and Pwo polymerase, we find the lowest error rates with Pfu , Phusion, and Pwo polymerases. Error rates are comparable for these 3 enzymes and are >10x lower than the error rate observed with Taq polymerase. Mutation spectra are reported, with the 3 high fidelity enzymes displaying broadly similar types of mutations. For these enzymes, transition mutations predominate, with little bias observed for type of transition.« less

Implementation of bayesian model averaging on the weather data forecasting applications utilizing open weather map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmat, R. F.; Nasution, F. R.; Seniman; Syahputra, M. F.; Sitompul, O. S.

2018-02-01

Weather is condition of air in a certain region at a relatively short period of time, measured with various parameters such as; temperature, air preasure, wind velocity, humidity and another phenomenons in the atmosphere. In fact, extreme weather due to global warming would lead to drought, flood, hurricane and other forms of weather occasion, which directly affects social andeconomic activities. Hence, a forecasting technique is to predict weather with distinctive output, particullary mapping process based on GIS with information about current weather status in certain cordinates of each region with capability to forecast for seven days afterward. Data used in this research are retrieved in real time from the server openweathermap and BMKG. In order to obtain a low error rate and high accuracy of forecasting, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The result shows that the BMA method has good accuracy. Forecasting error value is calculated by mean square error shows (MSE). The error value emerges at minumum temperature rated at 0.28 and maximum temperature rated at 0.15. Meanwhile, the error value of minimum humidity rates at 0.38 and the error value of maximum humidity rates at 0.04. Afterall, the forecasting error rate of wind speed is at 0.076. The lower the forecasting error rate, the more optimized the accuracy is.

Type I error rates of rare single nucleotide variants are inflated in tests of association with non-normally distributed traits using simple linear regression methods.

PubMed

Schwantes-An, Tae-Hwi; Sung, Heejong; Sabourin, Jeremy A; Justice, Cristina M; Sorant, Alexa J M; Wilson, Alexander F

2016-01-01

In this study, the effects of (a) the minor allele frequency of the single nucleotide variant (SNV), (b) the degree of departure from normality of the trait, and (c) the position of the SNVs on type I error rates were investigated in the Genetic Analysis Workshop (GAW) 19 whole exome sequence data. To test the distribution of the type I error rate, 5 simulated traits were considered: standard normal and gamma distributed traits; 2 transformed versions of the gamma trait (log 10 and rank-based inverse normal transformations); and trait Q1 provided by GAW 19. Each trait was tested with 313,340 SNVs. Tests of association were performed with simple linear regression and average type I error rates were determined for minor allele frequency classes. Rare SNVs (minor allele frequency < 0.05) showed inflated type I error rates for non-normally distributed traits that increased as the minor allele frequency decreased. The inflation of average type I error rates increased as the significance threshold decreased. Normally distributed traits did not show inflated type I error rates with respect to the minor allele frequency for rare SNVs. There was no consistent effect of transformation on the uniformity of the distribution of the location of SNVs with a type I error.

Estimating Rain Rates from Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauge Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jianxin; Fisher, Brad L.; Wolff, David B.

2007-01-01

This paper describes the cubic spline based operational system for the generation of the TRMM one-minute rain rate product 2A-56 from Tipping Bucket (TB) gauge measurements. Methodological issues associated with applying the cubic spline to the TB gauge rain rate estimation are closely examined. A simulated TB gauge from a Joss-Waldvogel (JW) disdrometer is employed to evaluate effects of time scales and rain event definitions on errors of the rain rate estimation. The comparison between rain rates measured from the JW disdrometer and those estimated from the simulated TB gauge shows good overall agreement; however, the TB gauge suffers sampling problems, resulting in errors in the rain rate estimation. These errors are very sensitive to the time scale of rain rates. One-minute rain rates suffer substantial errors, especially at low rain rates. When one minute rain rates are averaged to 4-7 minute or longer time scales, the errors dramatically reduce. The rain event duration is very sensitive to the event definition but the event rain total is rather insensitive, provided that the events with less than 1 millimeter rain totals are excluded. Estimated lower rain rates are sensitive to the event definition whereas the higher rates are not. The median relative absolute errors are about 22% and 32% for 1-minute TB rain rates higher and lower than 3 mm per hour, respectively. These errors decrease to 5% and 14% when TB rain rates are used at 7-minute scale. The radar reflectivity-rainrate (Ze-R) distributions drawn from large amount of 7-minute TB rain rates and radar reflectivity data are mostly insensitive to the event definition.

Typologies of Extreme Longevity Myths

PubMed Central

Young, Robert D.; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T.

2010-01-01

Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980–2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism. PMID:21461047

Typologies of extreme longevity myths.

PubMed

Young, Robert D; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T

2010-01-01

Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980-2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

Muver, a computational framework for accurately calling accumulated mutations.

PubMed

Burkholder, Adam B; Lujan, Scott A; Lavender, Christopher A; Grimm, Sara A; Kunkel, Thomas A; Fargo, David C

2018-05-09

Identification of mutations from next-generation sequencing data typically requires a balance between sensitivity and accuracy. This is particularly true of DNA insertions and deletions (indels), that can impart significant phenotypic consequences on cells but are harder to call than substitution mutations from whole genome mutation accumulation experiments. To overcome these difficulties, we present muver, a computational framework that integrates established bioinformatics tools with novel analytical methods to generate mutation calls with the extremely low false positive rates and high sensitivity required for accurate mutation rate determination and comparison. Muver uses statistical comparison of ancestral and descendant allelic frequencies to identify variant loci and assigns genotypes with models that include per-sample assessments of sequencing errors by mutation type and repeat context. Muver identifies maximally parsimonious mutation pathways that connect these genotypes, differentiating potential allelic conversion events and delineating ambiguities in mutation location, type, and size. Benchmarking with a human gold standard father-son pair demonstrates muver's sensitivity and low false positive rates. In DNA mismatch repair (MMR) deficient Saccharomyces cerevisiae, muver detects multi-base deletions in homopolymers longer than the replicative polymerase footprint at rates greater than predicted for sequential single-base deletions, implying a novel multi-repeat-unit slippage mechanism. Benchmarking results demonstrate the high accuracy and sensitivity achieved with muver, particularly for indels, relative to available tools. Applied to an MMR-deficient Saccharomyces cerevisiae system, muver mutation calls facilitate mechanistic insights into DNA replication fidelity.

5 CFR 891.105 - Correction of errors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Correction of errors. 891.105 Section 891.105 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) RETIRED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS Administration and General Provisions § 891.105...

Approximation of Bit Error Rates in Digital Communications

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

and Technology Organisation DSTO—TN—0761 ABSTRACT This report investigates the estimation of bit error rates in digital communi- cations, motivated by...recent work in [6]. In the latter, bounds are used to construct estimates for bit error rates in the case of differentially coherent quadrature phase

Randomly auditing research labs could be an affordable way to improve research quality: A simulation study

PubMed Central

Zardo, Pauline; Graves, Nicholas

2018-01-01

The “publish or perish” incentive drives many researchers to increase the quantity of their papers at the cost of quality. Lowering quality increases the number of false positive errors which is a key cause of the reproducibility crisis. We adapted a previously published simulation of the research world where labs that produce many papers are more likely to have “child” labs that inherit their characteristics. This selection creates a competitive spiral that favours quantity over quality. To try to halt the competitive spiral we added random audits that could detect and remove labs with a high proportion of false positives, and also improved the behaviour of “child” and “parent” labs who increased their effort and so lowered their probability of making a false positive error. Without auditing, only 0.2% of simulations did not experience the competitive spiral, defined by a convergence to the highest possible false positive probability. Auditing 1.35% of papers avoided the competitive spiral in 71% of simulations, and auditing 1.94% of papers in 95% of simulations. Audits worked best when they were only applied to established labs with 50 or more papers compared with labs with 25 or more papers. Adding a ±20% random error to the number of false positives to simulate peer reviewer error did not reduce the audits’ efficacy. The main benefit of the audits was via the increase in effort in “child” and “parent” labs. Audits improved the literature by reducing the number of false positives from 30.2 per 100 papers to 12.3 per 100 papers. Auditing 1.94% of papers would cost an estimated $15.9 million per year if applied to papers produced by National Institutes of Health funding. Our simulation greatly simplifies the research world and there are many unanswered questions about if and how audits would work that can only be addressed by a trial of an audit. PMID:29649314

Randomly auditing research labs could be an affordable way to improve research quality: A simulation study.

PubMed

Barnett, Adrian G; Zardo, Pauline; Graves, Nicholas

2018-01-01

The "publish or perish" incentive drives many researchers to increase the quantity of their papers at the cost of quality. Lowering quality increases the number of false positive errors which is a key cause of the reproducibility crisis. We adapted a previously published simulation of the research world where labs that produce many papers are more likely to have "child" labs that inherit their characteristics. This selection creates a competitive spiral that favours quantity over quality. To try to halt the competitive spiral we added random audits that could detect and remove labs with a high proportion of false positives, and also improved the behaviour of "child" and "parent" labs who increased their effort and so lowered their probability of making a false positive error. Without auditing, only 0.2% of simulations did not experience the competitive spiral, defined by a convergence to the highest possible false positive probability. Auditing 1.35% of papers avoided the competitive spiral in 71% of simulations, and auditing 1.94% of papers in 95% of simulations. Audits worked best when they were only applied to established labs with 50 or more papers compared with labs with 25 or more papers. Adding a ±20% random error to the number of false positives to simulate peer reviewer error did not reduce the audits' efficacy. The main benefit of the audits was via the increase in effort in "child" and "parent" labs. Audits improved the literature by reducing the number of false positives from 30.2 per 100 papers to 12.3 per 100 papers. Auditing 1.94% of papers would cost an estimated $15.9 million per year if applied to papers produced by National Institutes of Health funding. Our simulation greatly simplifies the research world and there are many unanswered questions about if and how audits would work that can only be addressed by a trial of an audit.

Biometric Authentication Using the PPG: A Long-Term Feasibility Study

PubMed Central

Alesanco, Álvaro

2018-01-01

The photoplethysmogram (PPG) is a biomedical signal that can be used to estimate volumetric blood flow changes in the peripheral circulation. During the past few years, several works have been published in order to assess the potential for PPGs to be used in biometric authentication systems, but results are inconclusive. In this paper we perform an analysis of the feasibility of using the PPG as a realistic biometric alternative in the long term. Several feature extractors (based on the time domain and the Karhunen–Loève transform) and matching metrics (Manhattan and Euclidean distances) have been tested using four different PPG databases (PRRB, MIMIC-II, Berry, and Nonin). We show that the false match rate (FMR) and false non-match rate (FNMR) values remain constant in different time instances for a selected threshold, which is essential for using the PPG for biometric authentication purposes. On the other hand, obtained equal error rate (EER) values for signals recorded during the same session range from 1.0% for high-quality signals recorded in controlled conditions to 8% for those recorded in conditions closer to real-world scenarios. Moreover, in certain scenarios, EER values rise up to 23.2% for signals recorded over different days, signaling that performance degradation could take place with time. PMID:29751681

Biometric Authentication Using the PPG: A Long-Term Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Sancho, Jorge; Alesanco, Álvaro; García, José

2018-05-11

The photoplethysmogram (PPG) is a biomedical signal that can be used to estimate volumetric blood flow changes in the peripheral circulation. During the past few years, several works have been published in order to assess the potential for PPGs to be used in biometric authentication systems, but results are inconclusive. In this paper we perform an analysis of the feasibility of using the PPG as a realistic biometric alternative in the long term. Several feature extractors (based on the time domain and the Karhunen⁻Loève transform) and matching metrics (Manhattan and Euclidean distances) have been tested using four different PPG databases (PRRB, MIMIC-II, Berry, and Nonin). We show that the false match rate ( FMR ) and false non-match rate ( FNMR ) values remain constant in different time instances for a selected threshold, which is essential for using the PPG for biometric authentication purposes. On the other hand, obtained equal error rate (EER) values for signals recorded during the same session range from 1.0% for high-quality signals recorded in controlled conditions to 8% for those recorded in conditions closer to real-world scenarios. Moreover, in certain scenarios, EER values rise up to 23.2% for signals recorded over different days, signaling that performance degradation could take place with time.

Analysis of the effects of Eye-Tracker performance on the pulse positioning errors during refractive surgery☆

PubMed Central

Arba-Mosquera, Samuel; Aslanides, Ioannis M.

2012-01-01

Purpose To analyze the effects of Eye-Tracker performance on the pulse positioning errors during refractive surgery. Methods A comprehensive model, which directly considers eye movements, including saccades, vestibular, optokinetic, vergence, and miniature, as well as, eye-tracker acquisition rate, eye-tracker latency time, scanner positioning time, laser firing rate, and laser trigger delay have been developed. Results Eye-tracker acquisition rates below 100 Hz correspond to pulse positioning errors above 1.5 mm. Eye-tracker latency times to about 15 ms correspond to pulse positioning errors of up to 3.5 mm. Scanner positioning times to about 9 ms correspond to pulse positioning errors of up to 2 mm. Laser firing rates faster than eye-tracker acquisition rates basically duplicate pulse-positioning errors. Laser trigger delays to about 300 μs have minor to no impact on pulse-positioning errors. Conclusions The proposed model can be used for comparison of laser systems used for ablation processes. Due to the pseudo-random nature of eye movements, positioning errors of single pulses are much larger than observed decentrations in the clinical settings. There is no single parameter that ‘alone’ minimizes the positioning error. It is the optimal combination of the several parameters that minimizes the error. The results of this analysis are important to understand the limitations of correcting very irregular ablation patterns.

Failure analysis and modeling of a multicomputer system. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Subramani, Sujatha Srinivasan

1990-01-01

This thesis describes the results of an extensive measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a 7-machine DEC VaxCluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system error and failure characteristics, we develop reward models to analyze the impact of failures and errors on the system. The results show that, although 98 percent of errors in the shared resources recover, they result in 48 percent of all system failures. The analysis of rewards shows that the expected reward rate for the VaxCluster decreases to 0.5 in 100 days for a 3 out of 7 model, which is well over a 100 times that for a 7-out-of-7 model. A comparison of the reward rates for a range of k-out-of-n models indicates that the maximum increase in reward rate (0.25) occurs in going from the 6-out-of-7 model to the 5-out-of-7 model. The analysis also shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.2 vs. 0.91 for network errors). The large loss in reward rate for software errors is due to the fact that a large proportion (94 percent) of software errors lead to failure. In comparison, the high reward rate for network errors is due to fast recovery from a majority of these errors (median recovery duration is 0 seconds).

Investigating the variability of memory distortion for an analogue trauma.

PubMed

Strange, Deryn; Takarangi, Melanie K T

2015-01-01

In this paper, we examine whether source monitoring (SM) errors might be one mechanism that accounts for traumatic memory distortion. Participants watched a traumatic film with some critical (crux) and non-critical (non-crux) scenes removed. Twenty-four hours later, they completed a memory test. To increase the likelihood participants would notice the film's gaps, we inserted visual static for the length of each missing scene. We then added manipulations designed to affect people's SM behaviour. To encourage systematic SM, before watching the film, we warned half the participants that we had removed some scenes. To encourage heuristic SM some participants also saw labels describing the missing scenes. Adding static highlighting, the missing scenes did not affect false recognition of those missing scenes. However, a warning decreased, while labels increased, participants' false recognition rates. We conclude that manipulations designed to affect SM behaviour also affect the degree of memory distortion in our paradigm.

Angular Rate Optimal Design for the Rotary Strapdown Inertial Navigation System

PubMed Central

Yu, Fei; Sun, Qian

2014-01-01

Due to the characteristics of high precision for a long duration, the rotary strapdown inertial navigation system (RSINS) has been widely used in submarines and surface ships. Nowadays, the core technology, the rotating scheme, has been studied by numerous researchers. It is well known that as one of the key technologies, the rotating angular rate seriously influences the effectiveness of the error modulating. In order to design the optimal rotating angular rate of the RSINS, the relationship between the rotating angular rate and the velocity error of the RSINS was analyzed in detail based on the Laplace transform and the inverse Laplace transform in this paper. The analysis results showed that the velocity error of the RSINS depends on not only the sensor error, but also the rotating angular rate. In order to minimize the velocity error, the rotating angular rate of the RSINS should match the sensor error. One optimal design method for the rotating rate of the RSINS was also proposed in this paper. Simulation and experimental results verified the validity and superiority of this optimal design method for the rotating rate of the RSINS. PMID:24759115

Reverse Transcription Errors and RNA-DNA Differences at Short Tandem Repeats.

PubMed

Fungtammasan, Arkarachai; Tomaszkiewicz, Marta; Campos-Sánchez, Rebeca; Eckert, Kristin A; DeGiorgio, Michael; Makova, Kateryna D

2016-10-01

Transcript variation has important implications for organismal function in health and disease. Most transcriptome studies focus on assessing variation in gene expression levels and isoform representation. Variation at the level of transcript sequence is caused by RNA editing and transcription errors, and leads to nongenetically encoded transcript variants, or RNA-DNA differences (RDDs). Such variation has been understudied, in part because its detection is obscured by reverse transcription (RT) and sequencing errors. It has only been evaluated for intertranscript base substitution differences. Here, we investigated transcript sequence variation for short tandem repeats (STRs). We developed the first maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) to infer RT error and RDD rates, taking next generation sequencing error rates into account. Using the MLE, we empirically evaluated RT error and RDD rates for STRs in a large-scale DNA and RNA replicated sequencing experiment conducted in a primate species. The RT error rates increased exponentially with STR length and were biased toward expansions. The RDD rates were approximately 1 order of magnitude lower than the RT error rates. The RT error rates estimated with the MLE from a primate data set were concordant with those estimated with an independent method, barcoded RNA sequencing, from a Caenorhabditis elegans data set. Our results have important implications for medical genomics, as STR allelic variation is associated with >40 diseases. STR nonallelic transcript variation can also contribute to disease phenotype. The MLE and empirical rates presented here can be used to evaluate the probability of disease-associated transcripts arising due to RDD. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Polymyxin B Etest Fails to Distinguish Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae with Elevated Polymyxin B MICs

PubMed Central

Kulengowski, Brandon; Brignola, Matthew; Gallagher, Chanah; Rutter, W Cliff; Ribes, Julie A; Burgess, David S

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Polymyxins are being revitalized to combat carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). However, evaluating the activity of these agents by traditional broth dilution methods is not practical for busy clinical laboratories. We compared polymyxin B (PMB) activity utilizing two quantitative susceptibility testing methods, Etest® and broth microdilution (BMD), against CRE isolates from patients at an academic medical center. Methods PMB activity against 70 recent CRE clinical isolates was determined by BMD and Etest® according to CLSI guidelines. P. aeruginosa ATCC® 27853 was used as a quality control strain. The CLSI PMB susceptibility breakpoint of non-fermenting gram-negative bacteria (<2 mg/L) was used. Essential agreement between methods was defined as an MIC measured within 1 log2 dilution. Categorical agreement was defined between methods as classification of isolates in the same susceptibility category (susceptible or resistant). Major and very major error rates were calculated, and McNemar’s test was used for determining a difference between methods. Results CRE isolates were primarily Enterobacter spp. (43%), followed by K. pneumoniae (41%) and E. coli (9%). Essential agreement between testing methods was low (9%), but categorical agreement was 81% (P = 0.0002). Although false non-susceptibility was never observed by Etest® (BMD as reference), the rate of very major errors by Etest® was high (19%). Etest® miscalled 87% of PMB-resistant CRE. Conclusion Etest® reporting of false susceptibility may result in inappropriate antibiotic utilization and treatment failure clinically. We do not recommend using Etest® for PMB susceptibility testing for routine patient care. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

Finding SDSS Galaxy Clusters in 4-dimensional Color Space Using the False Discovery Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichol, R. C.; Miller, C. J.; Reichart, D.; Wasserman, L.; Genovese, C.; SDSS Collaboration

2000-12-01

We describe a recently developed statistical technique that provides a meaningful cut-off in probability-based decision making. We are concerned with multiple testing, where each test produces a well-defined probability (or p-value). By well-known, we mean that the null hypothesis used to determine the p-value is fully understood and appropriate. The method is entitled False Discovery Rate (FDR) and its largest advantage over other measures is that it allows one to specify a maximal amount of acceptable error. As an example of this tool, we apply FDR to a four-dimensional clustering algorithm using SDSS data. For each galaxy (or test galaxy), we count the number of neighbors that fit within one standard deviation of a four dimensional Gaussian centered on that test galaxy. The mean and standard deviation of that Gaussian are determined from the colors and errors of the test galaxy. We then take that same Gaussian and place it on a random selection of n galaxies and make a similar count. In the limit of large n, we expect the median count around these random galaxies to represent a typical field galaxy. For every test galaxy we determine the probability (or p-value) that it is a field galaxy based on these counts. A low p-value implies that the test galaxy is in a cluster environment. Once we have a p-value for every galaxy, we use FDR to determine at what level we should make our probability cut-off. Once this cut-off is made, we have a final sample of galaxies that are cluster-like galaxies. Using FDR, we also know the maximum amount of field contamination in our cluster galaxy sample. We present our preliminary galaxy clustering results using these methods.

Analysis and Compensation of Modulation Angular Rate Error Based on Missile-Borne Rotation Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiayu; Li, Jie; Zhang, Xi; Che, Xiaorui; Huang, Yugang; Feng, Kaiqiang

2018-05-04

The Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SSINS) provides a new solution to attitude measurement of a high-speed rotating missile. However, micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMS) inertial measurement unit (MIMU) outputs are corrupted by significant sensor errors. In order to improve the navigation precision, a rotation modulation technology method called Rotation Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (RSSINS) is introduced into SINS. In fact, the stability of the modulation angular rate is difficult to achieve in a high-speed rotation environment. The changing rotary angular rate has an impact on the inertial sensor error self-compensation. In this paper, the influence of modulation angular rate error, including acceleration-deceleration process, and instability of the angular rate on the navigation accuracy of RSSINS is deduced and the error characteristics of the reciprocating rotation scheme are analyzed. A new compensation method is proposed to remove or reduce sensor errors so as to make it possible to maintain high precision autonomous navigation performance by MIMU when there is no external aid. Experiments have been carried out to validate the performance of the method. In addition, the proposed method is applicable for modulation angular rate error compensation under various dynamic conditions.

45 CFR 98.102 - Content of Error Rate Reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

....102 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.102 Content of Error Rate Reports. (a) Baseline Submission Report... payments by the total dollar amount of child care payments that the State, the District of Columbia or...

45 CFR 98.102 - Content of Error Rate Reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

....102 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.102 Content of Error Rate Reports. (a) Baseline Submission Report... payments by the total dollar amount of child care payments that the State, the District of Columbia or...

45 CFR 98.102 - Content of Error Rate Reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

....102 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.102 Content of Error Rate Reports. (a) Baseline Submission Report... payments by the total dollar amount of child care payments that the State, the District of Columbia or...

45 CFR 98.102 - Content of Error Rate Reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

....102 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.102 Content of Error Rate Reports. (a) Baseline Submission Report... payments by the total dollar amount of child care payments that the State, the District of Columbia or...

Impact of an antiretroviral stewardship strategy on medication error rates.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M; Hobbs, Athena Lv; Shumake, Jason D; Templet, Derek J; Padilla-Tolentino, Eimeira; Mondy, Kristin E

2018-05-02

The impact of an antiretroviral stewardship strategy on medication error rates was evaluated. This single-center, retrospective, comparative cohort study included patients at least 18 years of age infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who were receiving antiretrovirals and admitted to the hospital. A multicomponent approach was developed and implemented and included modifications to the order-entry and verification system, pharmacist education, and a pharmacist-led antiretroviral therapy checklist. Pharmacists performed prospective audits using the checklist at the time of order verification. To assess the impact of the intervention, a retrospective review was performed before and after implementation to assess antiretroviral errors. Totals of 208 and 24 errors were identified before and after the intervention, respectively, resulting in a significant reduction in the overall error rate ( p < 0.001). In the postintervention group, significantly lower medication error rates were found in both patient admissions containing at least 1 medication error ( p < 0.001) and those with 2 or more errors ( p < 0.001). Significant reductions were also identified in each error type, including incorrect/incomplete medication regimen, incorrect dosing regimen, incorrect renal dose adjustment, incorrect administration, and the presence of a major drug-drug interaction. A regression tree selected ritonavir as the only specific medication that best predicted more errors preintervention ( p < 0.001); however, no antiretrovirals reliably predicted errors postintervention. An antiretroviral stewardship strategy for hospitalized HIV patients including prospective audit by staff pharmacists through use of an antiretroviral medication therapy checklist at the time of order verification decreased error rates. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypoglycemia early alarm systems based on recursive autoregressive partial least squares models.

PubMed

Bayrak, Elif Seyma; Turksoy, Kamuran; Cinar, Ali; Quinn, Lauretta; Littlejohn, Elizabeth; Rollins, Derrick

2013-01-01

Hypoglycemia caused by intensive insulin therapy is a major challenge for artificial pancreas systems. Early detection and prevention of potential hypoglycemia are essential for the acceptance of fully automated artificial pancreas systems. Many of the proposed alarm systems are based on interpretation of recent values or trends in glucose values. In the present study, subject-specific linear models are introduced to capture glucose variations and predict future blood glucose concentrations. These models can be used in early alarm systems of potential hypoglycemia. A recursive autoregressive partial least squares (RARPLS) algorithm is used to model the continuous glucose monitoring sensor data and predict future glucose concentrations for use in hypoglycemia alarm systems. The partial least squares models constructed are updated recursively at each sampling step with a moving window. An early hypoglycemia alarm algorithm using these models is proposed and evaluated. Glucose prediction models based on real-time filtered data has a root mean squared error of 7.79 and a sum of squares of glucose prediction error of 7.35% for six-step-ahead (30 min) glucose predictions. The early alarm systems based on RARPLS shows good performance. A sensitivity of 86% and a false alarm rate of 0.42 false positive/day are obtained for the early alarm system based on six-step-ahead predicted glucose values with an average early detection time of 25.25 min. The RARPLS models developed provide satisfactory glucose prediction with relatively smaller error than other proposed algorithms and are good candidates to forecast and warn about potential hypoglycemia unless preventive action is taken far in advance. © 2012 Diabetes Technology Society.

Perils of using speed zone data to assess real-world compliance to speed limits.

PubMed

Chevalier, Anna; Clarke, Elizabeth; Chevalier, Aran John; Brown, Julie; Coxon, Kristy; Ivers, Rebecca; Keay, Lisa

2017-11-17

Real-world driving studies, including those involving speeding alert devices and autonomous vehicles, can gauge an individual vehicle's speeding behavior by comparing measured speed with mapped speed zone data. However, there are complexities with developing and maintaining a database of mapped speed zones over a large geographic area that may lead to inaccuracies within the data set. When this approach is applied to large-scale real-world driving data or speeding alert device data to determine speeding behavior, these inaccuracies may result in invalid identification of speeding. We investigated speeding events based on service provider speed zone data. We compared service provider speed zone data (Speed Alert by Smart Car Technologies Pty Ltd., Ultimo, NSW, Australia) against a second set of speed zone data (Google Maps Application Programming Interface [API] mapped speed zones). We found a systematic error in the zones where speed limits of 50-60 km/h, typical of local roads, were allocated to high-speed motorways, which produced false speed limits in the speed zone database. The result was detection of false-positive high-range speeding. Through comparison of the service provider speed zone data against a second set of speed zone data, we were able to identify and eliminate data most affected by this systematic error, thereby establishing a data set of speeding events with a high level of sensitivity (a true positive rate of 92% or 6,412/6,960). Mapped speed zones can be a source of error in real-world driving when examining vehicle speed. We explored the types of inaccuracies found within speed zone data and recommend that a second set of speed zone data be utilized when investigating speeding behavior or developing mapped speed zone data to minimize inaccuracy in estimates of speeding.

A new pooling strategy for high-throughput screening: the Shifted Transversal Design

PubMed Central

Thierry-Mieg, Nicolas

2006-01-01

Background In binary high-throughput screening projects where the goal is the identification of low-frequency events, beyond the obvious issue of efficiency, false positives and false negatives are a major concern. Pooling constitutes a natural solution: it reduces the number of tests, while providing critical duplication of the individual experiments, thereby correcting for experimental noise. The main difficulty consists in designing the pools in a manner that is both efficient and robust: few pools should be necessary to correct the errors and identify the positives, yet the experiment should not be too vulnerable to biological shakiness. For example, some information should still be obtained even if there are slightly more positives or errors than expected. This is known as the group testing problem, or pooling problem. Results In this paper, we present a new non-adaptive combinatorial pooling design: the "shifted transversal design" (STD). It relies on arithmetics, and rests on two intuitive ideas: minimizing the co-occurrence of objects, and constructing pools of constant-sized intersections. We prove that it allows unambiguous decoding of noisy experimental observations. This design is highly flexible, and can be tailored to function robustly in a wide range of experimental settings (i.e., numbers of objects, fractions of positives, and expected error-rates). Furthermore, we show that our design compares favorably, in terms of efficiency, to the previously described non-adaptive combinatorial pooling designs. Conclusion This method is currently being validated by field-testing in the context of yeast-two-hybrid interactome mapping, in collaboration with Marc Vidal's lab at the Dana Farber Cancer Institute. Many similar projects could benefit from using the Shifted Transversal Design. PMID:16423300

Hypoglycemia Early Alarm Systems Based on Recursive Autoregressive Partial Least Squares Models

PubMed Central

Bayrak, Elif Seyma; Turksoy, Kamuran; Cinar, Ali; Quinn, Lauretta; Littlejohn, Elizabeth; Rollins, Derrick

2013-01-01

Background Hypoglycemia caused by intensive insulin therapy is a major challenge for artificial pancreas systems. Early detection and prevention of potential hypoglycemia are essential for the acceptance of fully automated artificial pancreas systems. Many of the proposed alarm systems are based on interpretation of recent values or trends in glucose values. In the present study, subject-specific linear models are introduced to capture glucose variations and predict future blood glucose concentrations. These models can be used in early alarm systems of potential hypoglycemia. Methods A recursive autoregressive partial least squares (RARPLS) algorithm is used to model the continuous glucose monitoring sensor data and predict future glucose concentrations for use in hypoglycemia alarm systems. The partial least squares models constructed are updated recursively at each sampling step with a moving window. An early hypoglycemia alarm algorithm using these models is proposed and evaluated. Results Glucose prediction models based on real-time filtered data has a root mean squared error of 7.79 and a sum of squares of glucose prediction error of 7.35% for six-step-ahead (30 min) glucose predictions. The early alarm systems based on RARPLS shows good performance. A sensitivity of 86% and a false alarm rate of 0.42 false positive/day are obtained for the early alarm system based on six-step-ahead predicted glucose values with an average early detection time of 25.25 min. Conclusions The RARPLS models developed provide satisfactory glucose prediction with relatively smaller error than other proposed algorithms and are good candidates to forecast and warn about potential hypoglycemia unless preventive action is taken far in advance. PMID:23439179

When do latent class models overstate accuracy for diagnostic and other classifiers in the absence of a gold standard?

PubMed

Spencer, Bruce D

2012-06-01

Latent class models are increasingly used to assess the accuracy of medical diagnostic tests and other classifications when no gold standard is available and the true state is unknown. When the latent class is treated as the true class, the latent class models provide measures of components of accuracy including specificity and sensitivity and their complements, type I and type II error rates. The error rates according to the latent class model differ from the true error rates, however, and empirical comparisons with a gold standard suggest the true error rates often are larger. We investigate conditions under which the true type I and type II error rates are larger than those provided by the latent class models. Results from Uebersax (1988, Psychological Bulletin 104, 405-416) are extended to accommodate random effects and covariates affecting the responses. The results are important for interpreting the results of latent class analyses. An error decomposition is presented that incorporates an error component from invalidity of the latent class model. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Estimating gene gain and loss rates in the presence of error in genome assembly and annotation using CAFE 3.

PubMed

Han, Mira V; Thomas, Gregg W C; Lugo-Martinez, Jose; Hahn, Matthew W

2013-08-01

Current sequencing methods produce large amounts of data, but genome assemblies constructed from these data are often fragmented and incomplete. Incomplete and error-filled assemblies result in many annotation errors, especially in the number of genes present in a genome. This means that methods attempting to estimate rates of gene duplication and loss often will be misled by such errors and that rates of gene family evolution will be consistently overestimated. Here, we present a method that takes these errors into account, allowing one to accurately infer rates of gene gain and loss among genomes even with low assembly and annotation quality. The method is implemented in the newest version of the software package CAFE, along with several other novel features. We demonstrate the accuracy of the method with extensive simulations and reanalyze several previously published data sets. Our results show that errors in genome annotation do lead to higher inferred rates of gene gain and loss but that CAFE 3 sufficiently accounts for these errors to provide accurate estimates of important evolutionary parameters.

Derivation of an analytic expression for the error associated with the noise reduction rating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, William J.

2005-04-01

Hearing protection devices are assessed using the Real Ear Attenuation at Threshold (REAT) measurement procedure for the purpose of estimating the amount of noise reduction provided when worn by a subject. The rating number provided on the protector label is a function of the mean and standard deviation of the REAT results achieved by the test subjects. If a group of subjects have a large variance, then it follows that the certainty of the rating should be correspondingly lower. No estimate of the error of a protector's rating is given by existing standards or regulations. Propagation of errors was applied to the Noise Reduction Rating to develop an analytic expression for the hearing protector rating error term. Comparison of the analytic expression for the error to the standard deviation estimated from Monte Carlo simulation of subject attenuations yielded a linear relationship across several protector types and assumptions for the variance of the attenuations.

Errors in laboratory medicine: practical lessons to improve patient safety.

PubMed

Howanitz, Peter J

2005-10-01

Patient safety is influenced by the frequency and seriousness of errors that occur in the health care system. Error rates in laboratory practices are collected routinely for a variety of performance measures in all clinical pathology laboratories in the United States, but a list of critical performance measures has not yet been recommended. The most extensive databases describing error rates in pathology were developed and are maintained by the College of American Pathologists (CAP). These databases include the CAP's Q-Probes and Q-Tracks programs, which provide information on error rates from more than 130 interlaboratory studies. To define critical performance measures in laboratory medicine, describe error rates of these measures, and provide suggestions to decrease these errors, thereby ultimately improving patient safety. A review of experiences from Q-Probes and Q-Tracks studies supplemented with other studies cited in the literature. Q-Probes studies are carried out as time-limited studies lasting 1 to 4 months and have been conducted since 1989. In contrast, Q-Tracks investigations are ongoing studies performed on a yearly basis and have been conducted only since 1998. Participants from institutions throughout the world simultaneously conducted these studies according to specified scientific designs. The CAP has collected and summarized data for participants about these performance measures, including the significance of errors, the magnitude of error rates, tactics for error reduction, and willingness to implement each of these performance measures. A list of recommended performance measures, the frequency of errors when these performance measures were studied, and suggestions to improve patient safety by reducing these errors. Error rates for preanalytic and postanalytic performance measures were higher than for analytic measures. Eight performance measures were identified, including customer satisfaction, test turnaround times, patient identification, specimen acceptability, proficiency testing, critical value reporting, blood product wastage, and blood culture contamination. Error rate benchmarks for these performance measures were cited and recommendations for improving patient safety presented. Not only has each of the 8 performance measures proven practical, useful, and important for patient care, taken together, they also fulfill regulatory requirements. All laboratories should consider implementing these performance measures and standardizing their own scientific designs, data analysis, and error reduction strategies according to findings from these published studies.

Positive events protect children from causal false memories for scripted events.

PubMed

Melinder, Annika; Toffalini, Enrico; Geccherle, Eleonora; Cornoldi, Cesare

2017-11-01

Adults produce fewer inferential false memories for scripted events when their conclusions are emotionally charged than when they are neutral, but it is not clear whether the same effect is also found in children. In the present study, we examined this issue in a sample of 132 children aged 6-12 years (mean 9 years, 3 months). Participants encoded photographs depicting six script-like events that had a positively, negatively, or a neutral valenced ending. Subsequently, true and false recognition memory of photographs related to the observed scripts was tested as a function of emotionality. Causal errors-a type of false memory thought to stem from inferential processes-were found to be affected by valence: children made fewer causal errors for positive than for neutral or negative events. Hypotheses are proposed on why adults were found protected against inferential false memories not only by positive (as for children) but also by negative endings when administered similar versions of the same paradigm.

The statistical validity of nursing home survey findings.

PubMed

Woolley, Douglas C

2011-11-01

The Medicare nursing home survey is a high-stakes process whose findings greatly affect nursing homes, their current and potential residents, and the communities they serve. Therefore, survey findings must achieve high validity. This study looked at the validity of one key assessment made during a nursing home survey: the observation of the rate of errors in administration of medications to residents (med-pass). Statistical analysis of the case under study and of alternative hypothetical cases. A skilled nursing home affiliated with a local medical school. The nursing home administrators and the medical director. Observational study. The probability that state nursing home surveyors make a Type I or Type II error in observing med-pass error rates, based on the current case and on a series of postulated med-pass error rates. In the common situation such as our case, where med-pass errors occur at slightly above a 5% rate after 50 observations, and therefore trigger a citation, the chance that the true rate remains above 5% after a large number of observations is just above 50%. If the true med-pass error rate were as high as 10%, and the survey team wished to achieve 75% accuracy in determining that a citation was appropriate, they would have to make more than 200 med-pass observations. In the more common situation where med pass errors are closer to 5%, the team would have to observe more than 2000 med-passes to achieve even a modest 75% accuracy in their determinations. In settings where error rates are low, large numbers of observations of an activity must be made to reach acceptable validity of estimates for the true rates of errors. In observing key nursing home functions with current methodology, the State Medicare nursing home survey process does not adhere to well-known principles of valid error determination. Alternate approaches in survey methodology are discussed. Copyright © 2011 American Medical Directors Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

False biochemical diagnosis of hyperthyroidism in streptavidin-biotin-based immunoassays: the problem of biotin intake and related interferences.

PubMed

Piketty, Marie-Liesse; Polak, Michel; Flechtner, Isabelle; Gonzales-Briceño, Laura; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude

2017-05-01

Immunoassays are now commonly used for hormone measurement, in high throughput analytical platforms. Immunoassays are generally robust to interference. However, endogenous analytical error may occur in some patients; this may be encountered in biotin supplementation or in the presence of anti-streptavidin antibody, in immunoassays involving streptavidin-biotin interaction. In these cases, the interference may induce both false positive and false negative results, and simulate a seemingly coherent hormonal profile. It is to be feared that this type of errors will be more frequently observed. This review underlines the importance of keeping close interactions between biologists and clinicians to be able to correlate the hormonal assay results with the clinical picture.

Clinical biochemistry laboratory rejection rates due to various types of preanalytical errors.

PubMed

Atay, Aysenur; Demir, Leyla; Cuhadar, Serap; Saglam, Gulcan; Unal, Hulya; Aksun, Saliha; Arslan, Banu; Ozkan, Asuman; Sutcu, Recep

2014-01-01

Preanalytical errors, along the process from the beginning of test requests to the admissions of the specimens to the laboratory, cause the rejection of samples. The aim of this study was to better explain the reasons of rejected samples, regarding to their rates in certain test groups in our laboratory. This preliminary study was designed on the rejected samples in one-year period, based on the rates and types of inappropriateness. Test requests and blood samples of clinical chemistry, immunoassay, hematology, glycated hemoglobin, coagulation and erythrocyte sedimentation rate test units were evaluated. Types of inappropriateness were evaluated as follows: improperly labelled samples, hemolysed, clotted specimen, insufficient volume of specimen and total request errors. A total of 5,183,582 test requests from 1,035,743 blood collection tubes were considered. The total rejection rate was 0.65 %. The rejection rate of coagulation group was significantly higher (2.28%) than the other test groups (P < 0.001) including insufficient volume of specimen error rate as 1.38%. Rejection rates of hemolysis, clotted specimen and insufficient volume of sample error were found to be 8%, 24% and 34%, respectively. Total request errors, particularly, for unintelligible requests were 32% of the total for inpatients. The errors were especially attributable to unintelligible requests of inappropriate test requests, improperly labelled samples for inpatients and blood drawing errors especially due to insufficient volume of specimens in a coagulation test group. Further studies should be performed after corrective and preventive actions to detect a possible decrease in rejecting samples.

Empirical Validation of Pooled Whole Genome Population Re-Sequencing in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Zhu, Yuan; Bergland, Alan O.; González, Josefa; Petrov, Dmitri A.

2012-01-01

The sequencing of pooled non-barcoded individuals is an inexpensive and efficient means of assessing genome-wide population allele frequencies, yet its accuracy has not been thoroughly tested. We assessed the accuracy of this approach on whole, complex eukaryotic genomes by resequencing pools of largely isogenic, individually sequenced Drosophila melanogaster strains. We called SNPs in the pooled data and estimated false positive and false negative rates using the SNPs called in individual strain as a reference. We also estimated allele frequency of the SNPs using “pooled” data and compared them with “true” frequencies taken from the estimates in the individual strains. We demonstrate that pooled sequencing provides a faithful estimate of population allele frequency with the error well approximated by binomial sampling, and is a reliable means of novel SNP discovery with low false positive rates. However, a sufficient number of strains should be used in the pooling because variation in the amount of DNA derived from individual strains is a substantial source of noise when the number of pooled strains is low. Our results and analysis confirm that pooled sequencing is a very powerful and cost-effective technique for assessing of patterns of sequence variation in populations on genome-wide scales, and is applicable to any dataset where sequencing individuals or individual cells is impossible, difficult, time consuming, or expensive. PMID:22848651

Error rate information in attention allocation pilot models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faulkner, W. H.; Onstott, E. D.

1977-01-01

The Northrop urgency decision pilot model was used in a command tracking task to compare the optimized performance of multiaxis attention allocation pilot models whose urgency functions were (1) based on tracking error alone, and (2) based on both tracking error and error rate. A matrix of system dynamics and command inputs was employed, to create both symmetric and asymmetric two axis compensatory tracking tasks. All tasks were single loop on each axis. Analysis showed that a model that allocates control attention through nonlinear urgency functions using only error information could not achieve performance of the full model whose attention shifting algorithm included both error and error rate terms. Subsequent to this analysis, tracking performance predictions for the full model were verified by piloted flight simulation. Complete model and simulation data are presented.

7 CFR 275.23 - Determination of State agency program performance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... NUTRITION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOOD STAMP AND FOOD DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM PERFORMANCE REPORTING... section, the adjusted regressed payment error rate shall be calculated to yield the State agency's payment error rate. The adjusted regressed payment error rate is given by r 1″ + r 2″. (ii) If FNS determines...

The Relation Between Inflation in Type-I and Type-II Error Rate and Population Divergence in Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Multi-Ethnic Populations.

PubMed

Derks, E M; Zwinderman, A H; Gamazon, E R

2017-05-01

Population divergence impacts the degree of population stratification in Genome Wide Association Studies. We aim to: (i) investigate type-I error rate as a function of population divergence (F ST ) in multi-ethnic (admixed) populations; (ii) evaluate the statistical power and effect size estimates; and (iii) investigate the impact of population stratification on the results of gene-based analyses. Quantitative phenotypes were simulated. Type-I error rate was investigated for Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with varying levels of F ST between the ancestral European and African populations. Type-II error rate was investigated for a SNP characterized by a high value of F ST . In all tests, genomic MDS components were included to correct for population stratification. Type-I and type-II error rate was adequately controlled in a population that included two distinct ethnic populations but not in admixed samples. Statistical power was reduced in the admixed samples. Gene-based tests showed no residual inflation in type-I error rate.

Improving the quality of cognitive screening assessments: ACEmobile, an iPad-based version of the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-III.

PubMed

Newman, Craig G J; Bevins, Adam D; Zajicek, John P; Hodges, John R; Vuillermoz, Emil; Dickenson, Jennifer M; Kelly, Denise S; Brown, Simona; Noad, Rupert F

2018-01-01

Ensuring reliable administration and reporting of cognitive screening tests are fundamental in establishing good clinical practice and research. This study captured the rate and type of errors in clinical practice, using the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-III (ACE-III), and then the reduction in error rate using a computerized alternative, the ACEmobile app. In study 1, we evaluated ACE-III assessments completed in National Health Service (NHS) clinics ( n  = 87) for administrator error. In study 2, ACEmobile and ACE-III were then evaluated for their ability to capture accurate measurement. In study 1, 78% of clinically administered ACE-IIIs were either scored incorrectly or had arithmetical errors. In study 2, error rates seen in the ACE-III were reduced by 85%-93% using ACEmobile. Error rates are ubiquitous in routine clinical use of cognitive screening tests and the ACE-III. ACEmobile provides a framework for supporting reduced administration, scoring, and arithmetical error during cognitive screening.

Estimating true human and animal host source contribution in quantitative microbial source tracking using the Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Silkie, Sarah S; Nelson, Kara L; Wuertz, Stefan

2010-09-01

Cultivation- and library-independent, quantitative PCR-based methods have become the method of choice in microbial source tracking. However, these qPCR assays are not 100% specific and sensitive for the target sequence in their respective hosts' genome. The factors that can lead to false positive and false negative information in qPCR results are well defined. It is highly desirable to have a way of removing such false information to estimate the true concentration of host-specific genetic markers and help guide the interpretation of environmental monitoring studies. Here we propose a statistical model based on the Law of Total Probability to predict the true concentration of these markers. The distributions of the probabilities of obtaining false information are estimated from representative fecal samples of known origin. Measurement error is derived from the sample precision error of replicated qPCR reactions. Then, the Monte Carlo method is applied to sample from these distributions of probabilities and measurement error. The set of equations given by the Law of Total Probability allows one to calculate the distribution of true concentrations, from which their expected value, confidence interval and other statistical characteristics can be easily evaluated. The output distributions of predicted true concentrations can then be used as input to watershed-wide total maximum daily load determinations, quantitative microbial risk assessment and other environmental models. This model was validated by both statistical simulations and real world samples. It was able to correct the intrinsic false information associated with qPCR assays and output the distribution of true concentrations of Bacteroidales for each animal host group. Model performance was strongly affected by the precision error. It could perform reliably and precisely when the standard deviation of the precision error was small (≤ 0.1). Further improvement on the precision of sample processing and qPCR reaction would greatly improve the performance of the model. This methodology, built upon Bacteroidales assays, is readily transferable to any other microbial source indicator where a universal assay for fecal sources of that indicator exists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Documentation of study medication dispensing in a prospective large randomized clinical trial: experiences from the ARISTOTLE Trial.

PubMed

Alexander, John H; Levy, Elliott; Lawrence, Jack; Hanna, Michael; Waclawski, Anthony P; Wang, Junyuan; Califf, Robert M; Wallentin, Lars; Granger, Christopher B

2013-09-01

In ARISTOTLE, apixaban resulted in a 21% reduction in stroke, a 31% reduction in major bleeding, and an 11% reduction in death. However, approval of apixaban was delayed to investigate a statement in the clinical study report that "7.3% of subjects in the apixaban group and 1.2% of subjects in the warfarin group received, at some point during the study, a container of the wrong type." Rates of study medication dispensing error were characterized through reviews of study medication container tear-off labels in 6,520 participants from randomly selected study sites. The potential effect of dispensing errors on study outcomes was statistically simulated in sensitivity analyses in the overall population. The rate of medication dispensing error resulting in treatment error was 0.04%. Rates of participants receiving at least 1 incorrect container were 1.04% (34/3,273) in the apixaban group and 0.77% (25/3,247) in the warfarin group. Most of the originally reported errors were data entry errors in which the correct medication container was dispensed but the wrong container number was entered into the case report form. Sensitivity simulations in the overall trial population showed no meaningful effect of medication dispensing error on the main efficacy and safety outcomes. Rates of medication dispensing error were low and balanced between treatment groups. The initially reported dispensing error rate was the result of data recording and data management errors and not true medication dispensing errors. These analyses confirm the previously reported results of ARISTOTLE. © 2013.

Propagation of stage measurement uncertainties to streamflow time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horner, Ivan; Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin; Branger, Flora; McMillan, Hilary

2016-04-01

Streamflow uncertainties due to stage measurements errors are generally overlooked in the promising probabilistic approaches that have emerged in the last decade. We introduce an original error model for propagating stage uncertainties through a stage-discharge rating curve within a Bayesian probabilistic framework. The method takes into account both rating curve (parametric errors and structural errors) and stage uncertainty (systematic and non-systematic errors). Practical ways to estimate the different types of stage errors are also presented: (1) non-systematic errors due to instrument resolution and precision and non-stationary waves and (2) systematic errors due to gauge calibration against the staff gauge. The method is illustrated at a site where the rating-curve-derived streamflow can be compared with an accurate streamflow reference. The agreement between the two time series is overall satisfying. Moreover, the quantification of uncertainty is also satisfying since the streamflow reference is compatible with the streamflow uncertainty intervals derived from the rating curve and the stage uncertainties. Illustrations from other sites are also presented. Results are much contrasted depending on the site features. In some cases, streamflow uncertainty is mainly due to stage measurement errors. The results also show the importance of discriminating systematic and non-systematic stage errors, especially for long term flow averages. Perspectives for improving and validating the streamflow uncertainty estimates are eventually discussed.

Distillation with Sublogarithmic Overhead.

PubMed

Hastings, Matthew B; Haah, Jeongwan

2018-02-02

It has been conjectured that, for any distillation protocol for magic states for the T gate, the number of noisy input magic states required per output magic state at output error rate ε is Ω[log(1/ε)]. We show that this conjecture is false. We find a family of quantum error correcting codes of parameters ⟦∑[under i=w+1][over m](m/i),∑[under i=0][over w](m/i),∑[under i=w+1][over r+1](r+1/i)⟧ for any integers m>2r, r>w≥0, by puncturing quantum Reed-Muller codes. When m>νr, our code admits a transversal logical gate at the νth level of Clifford hierarchy. In a distillation protocol for magic states at the level ν=3 (T gate), the ratio of input to output magic states is O(log^{γ}(1/ε)), where γ=log(n/k)/log(d)<0.678 for some m, r, w. The smallest code in our family for which γ<1 is on ≈2^{58} qubits.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approaches for Quality Control of Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Malovini, Alberto; Rognoni, Carla; Puca, Annibale; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2009-01-01

Experimental errors in the genotyping phases of a Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) can lead to false positive findings and to spurious associations. An appropriate quality control phase could minimize the effects of this kind of errors. Several filtering criteria can be used to perform quality control. Currently, no formal methods have been proposed for taking into account at the same time these criteria and the experimenter’s preferences. In this paper we propose two strategies for setting appropriate genotyping rate thresholds for GWAS quality control. These two approaches are based on the Multi-Criteria Decision Making theory. We have applied our method on a real dataset composed by 734 individuals affected by Arterial Hypertension (AH) and 486 nonagenarians without history of AH. The proposed strategies appear to deal with GWAS quality control in a sound way, as they lead to rationalize and make explicit the experimenter’s choices thus providing more reproducible results. PMID:21347174

[Expand newborn screening using tandem mass spectrometry: two years' experience in Nuevo León, Mexico].

PubMed

Torres-Sepúlveda, María del Rosario; Martínez-de Villarreal, Laura E; Esmer, Carmen; González-Alanís, Rogerio; Ruiz-Herrera, Consuelo; Sánchez-Peña, Alejandra; Mendoza-Cruz, José Alberto; Villarreal-Pérez, Jesús Z

2008-01-01

To initiate a statewide expanded metabolic screening program in neonates with the purpose of identifying the most common inborn errors of metabolism. From March 2002 through February 2004, a blood sample was obtained between 24 and 48 hours after delivery from every consecutive child born in public hospitals in Nuevo León. It was spotted on filter paper and analyzed by tandem mass spectrometry for expanded metabolic screening. A total of 42 264 samples were analyzed. Were obtained seven positive results, one for each disorder: homocystinuria, hyperphenylalaninemia, citrulinemia, transient tyrosinemia, 3-methylcrotonyl CoA carboxylase deficiency, 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl CoA deficiency, and classic galactosemia. The estimated incidence of inborn errors of metabolism is 1:5 000, with a false positive rate of 0.22%. The program permitted the identification of metabolic disorders in the newborn, allowing an early intervention and prevention of life-threatening events and permanent neurological damage.

Analysis of F-16 radar discrepancies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riche, K. A.

1982-12-01

One hundred and eight aircraft were randomly selected from three USAF F-16 bases and examined. These aircraft included 63 single-seat F-16As and 45 two-seat F-16Bs and encompassed 8,525 sorties and 748 radar system write-ups. Programs supported by the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) were run on the data. Of the 748 discrepancies, over one-third of them occurred within three sorties of each other and half within six sorties. Sixteen percent of all aircraft which had a discrepancy within three sorties had another write-up within the next three sorties. Designated repeat/recurring write-ups represented one-third of all the instances in which the write-up separation interval was three sorties or less. This is an indication that maintenance is unable to correct equipment failures as they occur, most likely because the false alarm rate is too high and maintenance is unable to duplicate the error conditions on the ground for correct error diagnosis.

RED NOISE VERSUS PLANETARY INTERPRETATIONS IN THE MICROLENSING EVENT OGLE-2013-BLG-446

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bachelet, E.; Bramich, D. M.; AlSubai, K.

2015-10-20

For all exoplanet candidates, the reliability of a claimed detection needs to be assessed through a careful study of systematic errors in the data to minimize the false positives rate. We present a method to investigate such systematics in microlensing data sets using the microlensing event OGLE-2013-BLG-0446 as a case study. The event was observed from multiple sites around the world and its high magnification (A{sub max} ∼ 3000) allowed us to investigate the effects of terrestrial and annual parallax. Real-time modeling of the event while it was still ongoing suggested the presence of an extremely low-mass companion (∼3M{sub ⨁})more » to the lensing star, leading to substantial follow-up coverage of the light curve. We test and compare different models for the light curve and conclude that the data do not favor the planetary interpretation when systematic errors are taken into account.« less

Prescribing errors during hospital inpatient care: factors influencing identification by pharmacists.

PubMed

Tully, Mary P; Buchan, Iain E

2009-12-01

To investigate the prevalence of prescribing errors identified by pharmacists in hospital inpatients and the factors influencing error identification rates by pharmacists throughout hospital admission. 880-bed university teaching hospital in North-west England. Data about prescribing errors identified by pharmacists (median: 9 (range 4-17) collecting data per day) when conducting routine work were prospectively recorded on 38 randomly selected days over 18 months. Proportion of new medication orders in which an error was identified; predictors of error identification rate, adjusted for workload and seniority of pharmacist, day of week, type of ward or stage of patient admission. 33,012 new medication orders were reviewed for 5,199 patients; 3,455 errors (in 10.5% of orders) were identified for 2,040 patients (39.2%; median 1, range 1-12). Most were problem orders (1,456, 42.1%) or potentially significant errors (1,748, 50.6%); 197 (5.7%) were potentially serious; 1.6% (n = 54) were potentially severe or fatal. Errors were 41% (CI: 28-56%) more likely to be identified at patient's admission than at other times, independent of confounders. Workload was the strongest predictor of error identification rates, with 40% (33-46%) less errors identified on the busiest days than at other times. Errors identified fell by 1.9% (1.5-2.3%) for every additional chart checked, independent of confounders. Pharmacists routinely identify errors but increasing workload may reduce identification rates. Where resources are limited, they may be better spent on identifying and addressing errors immediately after admission to hospital.

Errors Recruit both Cognitive and Emotional Monitoring Systems: Simultaneous Intracranial Recordings in the Dorsal Anterior Cingulate Gyrus and Amygdala Combined with fMRI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pourtois, Gilles; Vocat, Roland; N'Diaye, Karim; Spinelli, Laurent; Seeck, Margitta; Vuilleumier, Patrik

2010-01-01

We studied error monitoring in a human patient with unique implantation of depth electrodes in both the left dorsal cingulate gyrus and medial temporal lobe prior to surgery. The patient performed a speeded go/nogo task and made a substantial number of commission errors (false alarms). As predicted, intracranial Local Field Potentials (iLFPs) in…

Many tests of significance: new methods for controlling type I errors.

PubMed

Keselman, H J; Miller, Charles W; Holland, Burt

2011-12-01

There have been many discussions of how Type I errors should be controlled when many hypotheses are tested (e.g., all possible comparisons of means, correlations, proportions, the coefficients in hierarchical models, etc.). By and large, researchers have adopted familywise (FWER) control, though this practice certainly is not universal. Familywise control is intended to deal with the multiplicity issue of computing many tests of significance, yet such control is conservative--that is, less powerful--compared to per test/hypothesis control. The purpose of our article is to introduce the readership, particularly those readers familiar with issues related to controlling Type I errors when many tests of significance are computed, to newer methods that provide protection from the effects of multiple testing, yet are more powerful than familywise controlling methods. Specifically, we introduce a number of procedures that control the k-FWER. These methods--say, 2-FWER instead of 1-FWER (i.e., FWER)--are equivalent to specifying that the probability of 2 or more false rejections is controlled at .05, whereas FWER controls the probability of any (i.e., 1 or more) false rejections at .05. 2-FWER implicitly tolerates 1 false rejection and makes no explicit attempt to control the probability of its occurrence, unlike FWER, which tolerates no false rejections at all. More generally, k-FWER tolerates k - 1 false rejections, but controls the probability of k or more false rejections at α =.05. We demonstrate with two published data sets how more hypotheses can be rejected with k-FWER methods compared to FWER control.

Topological quantum computing with a very noisy network and local error rates approaching one percent.

PubMed

Nickerson, Naomi H; Li, Ying; Benjamin, Simon C

2013-01-01

A scalable quantum computer could be built by networking together many simple processor cells, thus avoiding the need to create a single complex structure. The difficulty is that realistic quantum links are very error prone. A solution is for cells to repeatedly communicate with each other and so purify any imperfections; however prior studies suggest that the cells themselves must then have prohibitively low internal error rates. Here we describe a method by which even error-prone cells can perform purification: groups of cells generate shared resource states, which then enable stabilization of topologically encoded data. Given a realistically noisy network (≥10% error rate) we find that our protocol can succeed provided that intra-cell error rates for initialisation, state manipulation and measurement are below 0.82%. This level of fidelity is already achievable in several laboratory systems.

Analysis and Compensation of Modulation Angular Rate Error Based on Missile-Borne Rotation Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jiayu; Li, Jie; Zhang, Xi; Che, Xiaorui; Huang, Yugang; Feng, Kaiqiang

2018-01-01

The Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SSINS) provides a new solution to attitude measurement of a high-speed rotating missile. However, micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMS) inertial measurement unit (MIMU) outputs are corrupted by significant sensor errors. In order to improve the navigation precision, a rotation modulation technology method called Rotation Semi-Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (RSSINS) is introduced into SINS. In fact, the stability of the modulation angular rate is difficult to achieve in a high-speed rotation environment. The changing rotary angular rate has an impact on the inertial sensor error self-compensation. In this paper, the influence of modulation angular rate error, including acceleration-deceleration process, and instability of the angular rate on the navigation accuracy of RSSINS is deduced and the error characteristics of the reciprocating rotation scheme are analyzed. A new compensation method is proposed to remove or reduce sensor errors so as to make it possible to maintain high precision autonomous navigation performance by MIMU when there is no external aid. Experiments have been carried out to validate the performance of the method. In addition, the proposed method is applicable for modulation angular rate error compensation under various dynamic conditions. PMID:29734707

Accuracy of cited “facts” in medical research articles: A review of study methodology and recalculation of quotation error rate

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Previous reviews estimated that approximately 20 to 25% of assertions cited from original research articles, or “facts,” are inaccurately quoted in the medical literature. These reviews noted that the original studies were dissimilar and only began to compare the methods of the original studies. The aim of this review is to examine the methods of the original studies and provide a more specific rate of incorrectly cited assertions, or quotation errors, in original research articles published in medical journals. Additionally, the estimate of quotation errors calculated here is based on the ratio of quotation errors to quotations examined (a percent) rather than the more prevalent and weighted metric of quotation errors to the references selected. Overall, this resulted in a lower estimate of the quotation error rate in original medical research articles. A total of 15 studies met the criteria for inclusion in the primary quantitative analysis. Quotation errors were divided into two categories: content ("factual") or source (improper indirect citation) errors. Content errors were further subdivided into major and minor errors depending on the degree that the assertion differed from the original source. The rate of quotation errors recalculated here is 14.5% (10.5% to 18.6% at a 95% confidence interval). These content errors are predominantly, 64.8% (56.1% to 73.5% at a 95% confidence interval), major errors or cited assertions in which the referenced source either fails to substantiate, is unrelated to, or contradicts the assertion. Minor errors, which are an oversimplification, overgeneralization, or trivial inaccuracies, are 35.2% (26.5% to 43.9% at a 95% confidence interval). Additionally, improper secondary (or indirect) citations, which are distinguished from calculations of quotation accuracy, occur at a rate of 10.4% (3.4% to 17.5% at a 95% confidence interval). PMID:28910404

Accuracy of cited "facts" in medical research articles: A review of study methodology and recalculation of quotation error rate.

PubMed

Mogull, Scott A

2017-01-01

Previous reviews estimated that approximately 20 to 25% of assertions cited from original research articles, or "facts," are inaccurately quoted in the medical literature. These reviews noted that the original studies were dissimilar and only began to compare the methods of the original studies. The aim of this review is to examine the methods of the original studies and provide a more specific rate of incorrectly cited assertions, or quotation errors, in original research articles published in medical journals. Additionally, the estimate of quotation errors calculated here is based on the ratio of quotation errors to quotations examined (a percent) rather than the more prevalent and weighted metric of quotation errors to the references selected. Overall, this resulted in a lower estimate of the quotation error rate in original medical research articles. A total of 15 studies met the criteria for inclusion in the primary quantitative analysis. Quotation errors were divided into two categories: content ("factual") or source (improper indirect citation) errors. Content errors were further subdivided into major and minor errors depending on the degree that the assertion differed from the original source. The rate of quotation errors recalculated here is 14.5% (10.5% to 18.6% at a 95% confidence interval). These content errors are predominantly, 64.8% (56.1% to 73.5% at a 95% confidence interval), major errors or cited assertions in which the referenced source either fails to substantiate, is unrelated to, or contradicts the assertion. Minor errors, which are an oversimplification, overgeneralization, or trivial inaccuracies, are 35.2% (26.5% to 43.9% at a 95% confidence interval). Additionally, improper secondary (or indirect) citations, which are distinguished from calculations of quotation accuracy, occur at a rate of 10.4% (3.4% to 17.5% at a 95% confidence interval).

The Relationship between Occurrence Timing of Dispensing Errors and Subsequent Danger to Patients under the Situation According to the Classification of Drugs by Efficacy.

PubMed

Tsuji, Toshikazu; Nagata, Kenichiro; Kawashiri, Takehiro; Yamada, Takaaki; Irisa, Toshihiro; Murakami, Yuko; Kanaya, Akiko; Egashira, Nobuaki; Masuda, Satohiro

2016-01-01

There are many reports regarding various medical institutions' attempts at the prevention of dispensing errors. However, the relationship between occurrence timing of dispensing errors and subsequent danger to patients has not been studied under the situation according to the classification of drugs by efficacy. Therefore, we analyzed the relationship between position and time regarding the occurrence of dispensing errors. Furthermore, we investigated the relationship between occurrence timing of them and danger to patients. In this study, dispensing errors and incidents in three categories (drug name errors, drug strength errors, drug count errors) were classified into two groups in terms of its drug efficacy (efficacy similarity (-) group, efficacy similarity (+) group), into three classes in terms of the occurrence timing of dispensing errors (initial phase errors, middle phase errors, final phase errors). Then, the rates of damage shifting from "dispensing errors" to "damage to patients" were compared as an index of danger between two groups and among three classes. Consequently, the rate of damage in "efficacy similarity (-) group" was significantly higher than that in "efficacy similarity (+) group". Furthermore, the rate of damage is the highest in "initial phase errors", the lowest in "final phase errors" among three classes. From the results of this study, it became clear that the earlier the timing of dispensing errors occurs, the more severe the damage to patients becomes.

Agreeableness and Conscientiousness as Predictors of University Students' Self/Peer-Assessment Rating Error

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birjandi, Parviz; Siyyari, Masood

2016-01-01

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the role of two personality traits (i.e. Agreeableness and Conscientiousness from the Big Five personality traits) in predicting rating error in the self-assessment and peer-assessment of composition writing. The average self/peer-rating errors of 136 Iranian English major undergraduates…

National Suicide Rates a Century after Durkheim: Do We Know Enough to Estimate Error?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Claassen, Cynthia A.; Yip, Paul S.; Corcoran, Paul; Bossarte, Robert M.; Lawrence, Bruce A.; Currier, Glenn W.

2010-01-01

Durkheim's nineteenth-century analysis of national suicide rates dismissed prior concerns about mortality data fidelity. Over the intervening century, however, evidence documenting various types of error in suicide data has only mounted, and surprising levels of such error continue to be routinely uncovered. Yet the annual suicide rate remains the…

The Relationship of Error Rate and Comprehension in Second and Third Grade Oral Reading Fluency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbott, Mary; Wills, Howard; Miller, Angela; Kaufman, Journ

2012-01-01

This study explored the relationships of oral reading speed and error rate on comprehension with second and third grade students with identified reading risk. The study included 920 second and 974 third graders. Results found a significant relationship between error rate, oral reading fluency, and reading comprehension performance, and…

What Are Error Rates for Classifying Teacher and School Performance Using Value-Added Models?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schochet, Peter Z.; Chiang, Hanley S.

2013-01-01

This article addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using a realistic performance measurement system scheme based on hypothesis testing, the authors develop error rate formulas based on ordinary least squares and…

27 CFR 46.245 - Errors in records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Errors in records. 46.245 Section 46.245 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) TOBACCO MISCELLANEOUS REGULATIONS RELATING TO TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND...

27 CFR 46.245 - Errors in records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Errors in records. 46.245 Section 46.245 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) TOBACCO MISCELLANEOUS REGULATIONS RELATING TO TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND...

Decrease in medical command errors with use of a "standing orders" protocol system.

PubMed

Holliman, C J; Wuerz, R C; Meador, S A

1994-05-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the physician medical command error rates and paramedic error rates after implementation of a "standing orders" protocol system for medical command. These patient-care error rates were compared with the previously reported rates for a "required call-in" medical command system (Ann Emerg Med 1992; 21(4):347-350). A secondary aim of the study was to determine if the on-scene time interval was increased by the standing orders system. Prospectively conducted audit of prehospital advanced life support (ALS) trip sheets was made at an urban ALS paramedic service with on-line physician medical command from three local hospitals. All ALS run sheets from the start time of the standing orders system (April 1, 1991) for a 1-year period ending on March 30, 1992 were reviewed as part of an ongoing quality assurance program. Cases were identified as nonjustifiably deviating from regional emergency medical services (EMS) protocols as judged by agreement of three physician reviewers (the same methodology as a previously reported command error study in the same ALS system). Medical command and paramedic errors were identified from the prehospital ALS run sheets and categorized. Two thousand one ALS runs were reviewed; 24 physician errors (1.2% of the 1,928 "command" runs) and eight paramedic errors (0.4% of runs) were identified. The physician error rate was decreased from the 2.6% rate in the previous study (P < .0001 by chi 2 analysis). The on-scene time interval did not increase with the "standing orders" system.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Quantifying Data Quality for Clinical Trials Using Electronic Data Capture

PubMed Central

Nahm, Meredith L.; Pieper, Carl F.; Cunningham, Maureen M.

2008-01-01

Background Historically, only partial assessments of data quality have been performed in clinical trials, for which the most common method of measuring database error rates has been to compare the case report form (CRF) to database entries and count discrepancies. Importantly, errors arising from medical record abstraction and transcription are rarely evaluated as part of such quality assessments. Electronic Data Capture (EDC) technology has had a further impact, as paper CRFs typically leveraged for quality measurement are not used in EDC processes. Methods and Principal Findings The National Institute on Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network has developed, implemented, and evaluated methodology for holistically assessing data quality on EDC trials. We characterize the average source-to-database error rate (14.3 errors per 10,000 fields) for the first year of use of the new evaluation method. This error rate was significantly lower than the average of published error rates for source-to-database audits, and was similar to CRF-to-database error rates reported in the published literature. We attribute this largely to an absence of medical record abstraction on the trials we examined, and to an outpatient setting characterized by less acute patient conditions. Conclusions Historically, medical record abstraction is the most significant source of error by an order of magnitude, and should be measured and managed during the course of clinical trials. Source-to-database error rates are highly dependent on the amount of structured data collection in the clinical setting and on the complexity of the medical record, dependencies that should be considered when developing data quality benchmarks. PMID:18725958

Effect of atmospheric turbulence on the bit error probability of a space to ground near infrared laser communications link using binary pulse position modulation and an avalanche photodiode detector

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safren, H. G.

1987-01-01

The effect of atmospheric turbulence on the bit error rate of a space-to-ground near infrared laser communications link is investigated, for a link using binary pulse position modulation and an avalanche photodiode detector. Formulas are presented for the mean and variance of the bit error rate as a function of signal strength. Because these formulas require numerical integration, they are of limited practical use. Approximate formulas are derived which are easy to compute and sufficiently accurate for system feasibility studies, as shown by numerical comparison with the exact formulas. A very simple formula is derived for the bit error rate as a function of signal strength, which requires only the evaluation of an error function. It is shown by numerical calculations that, for realistic values of the system parameters, the increase in the bit error rate due to turbulence does not exceed about thirty percent for signal strengths of four hundred photons per bit or less. The increase in signal strength required to maintain an error rate of one in 10 million is about one or two tenths of a db.

[The problem of small "n" and big "P" in neuropsycho-pharmacology, or how to keep the rate of false discoveries under control].

PubMed

Petschner, Péter; Bagdy, György; Tóthfalusi, Laszló

2015-03-01

One of the characteristics of many methods used in neuropsychopharmacology is that a large number of parameters (P) are measured in relatively few subjects (n). Functional magnetic resonance imaging, electroencephalography (EEG) and genomic studies are typical examples. For example one microarray chip can contain thousands of probes. Therefore, in studies using microarray chips, P may be several thousand-fold larger than n. Statistical analysis of such studies is a challenging task and they are refereed to in the statistical literature such as the small "n" big "P" problem. The problem has many facets including the controversies associated with multiple hypothesis testing. A typical scenario in this context is, when two or more groups are compared by the individual attributes. If the increased classification error due to the multiple testing is neglected, then several highly significant differences will be discovered. But in reality, some of these significant differences are coincidental, not reproducible findings. Several methods were proposed to solve this problem. In this review we discuss two of the proposed solutions, algorithms to compare sets and statistical hypothesis tests controlling the false discovery rate.

How to talk about protein‐level false discovery rates in shotgun proteomics

PubMed Central

The, Matthew; Tasnim, Ayesha

2016-01-01

A frequently sought output from a shotgun proteomics experiment is a list of proteins that we believe to have been present in the analyzed sample before proteolytic digestion. The standard technique to control for errors in such lists is to enforce a preset threshold for the false discovery rate (FDR). Many consider protein‐level FDRs a difficult and vague concept, as the measurement entities, spectra, are manifestations of peptides and not proteins. Here, we argue that this confusion is unnecessary and provide a framework on how to think about protein‐level FDRs, starting from its basic principle: the null hypothesis. Specifically, we point out that two competing null hypotheses are used concurrently in today's protein inference methods, which has gone unnoticed by many. Using simulations of a shotgun proteomics experiment, we show how confusing one null hypothesis for the other can lead to serious discrepancies in the FDR. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the same simulations can be used to verify FDR estimates of protein inference methods. In particular, we show that, for a simple protein inference method, decoy models can be used to accurately estimate protein‐level FDRs for both competing null hypotheses. PMID:27503675

Validation of Satellite Precipitation (trmm 3B43) in Ecuadorian Coastal Plains, Andean Highlands and Amazonian Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballari, D.; Castro, E.; Campozano, L.

2016-06-01

Precipitation monitoring is of utmost importance for water resource management. However, in regions of complex terrain such as Ecuador, the high spatio-temporal precipitation variability and the scarcity of rain gauges, make difficult to obtain accurate estimations of precipitation. Remotely sensed estimated precipitation, such as the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis TRMM, can cope with this problem after a validation process, which must be representative in space and time. In this work we validate monthly estimates from TRMM 3B43 satellite precipitation (0.25° x 0.25° resolution), by using ground data from 14 rain gauges in Ecuador. The stations are located in the 3 most differentiated regions of the country: the Pacific coastal plains, the Andean highlands, and the Amazon rainforest. Time series, between 1998 - 2010, of imagery and rain gauges were compared using statistical error metrics such as bias, root mean square error, and Pearson correlation; and with detection indexes such as probability of detection, equitable threat score, false alarm rate and frequency bias index. The results showed that precipitation seasonality is well represented and TRMM 3B43 acceptably estimates the monthly precipitation in the three regions of the country. According to both, statistical error metrics and detection indexes, the coastal and Amazon regions are better estimated quantitatively than the Andean highlands. Additionally, it was found that there are better estimations for light precipitation rates. The present validation of TRMM 3B43 provides important results to support further studies on calibration and bias correction of precipitation in ungagged watershed basins.

Computation and measurement of cell decision making errors using single cell data

PubMed Central

Habibi, Iman; Cheong, Raymond; Levchenko, Andre; Emamian, Effat S.; Abdi, Ali

2017-01-01

In this study a new computational method is developed to quantify decision making errors in cells, caused by noise and signaling failures. Analysis of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling pathway which regulates the transcription factor Nuclear Factor κB (NF-κB) using this method identifies two types of incorrect cell decisions called false alarm and miss. These two events represent, respectively, declaring a signal which is not present and missing a signal that does exist. Using single cell experimental data and the developed method, we compute false alarm and miss error probabilities in wild-type cells and provide a formulation which shows how these metrics depend on the signal transduction noise level. We also show that in the presence of abnormalities in a cell, decision making processes can be significantly affected, compared to a wild-type cell, and the method is able to model and measure such effects. In the TNF—NF-κB pathway, the method computes and reveals changes in false alarm and miss probabilities in A20-deficient cells, caused by cell’s inability to inhibit TNF-induced NF-κB response. In biological terms, a higher false alarm metric in this abnormal TNF signaling system indicates perceiving more cytokine signals which in fact do not exist at the system input, whereas a higher miss metric indicates that it is highly likely to miss signals that actually exist. Overall, this study demonstrates the ability of the developed method for modeling cell decision making errors under normal and abnormal conditions, and in the presence of transduction noise uncertainty. Compared to the previously reported pathway capacity metric, our results suggest that the introduced decision error metrics characterize signaling failures more accurately. This is mainly because while capacity is a useful metric to study information transmission in signaling pathways, it does not capture the overlap between TNF-induced noisy response curves. PMID:28379950

Computation and measurement of cell decision making errors using single cell data.

PubMed

Habibi, Iman; Cheong, Raymond; Lipniacki, Tomasz; Levchenko, Andre; Emamian, Effat S; Abdi, Ali

2017-04-01

In this study a new computational method is developed to quantify decision making errors in cells, caused by noise and signaling failures. Analysis of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling pathway which regulates the transcription factor Nuclear Factor κB (NF-κB) using this method identifies two types of incorrect cell decisions called false alarm and miss. These two events represent, respectively, declaring a signal which is not present and missing a signal that does exist. Using single cell experimental data and the developed method, we compute false alarm and miss error probabilities in wild-type cells and provide a formulation which shows how these metrics depend on the signal transduction noise level. We also show that in the presence of abnormalities in a cell, decision making processes can be significantly affected, compared to a wild-type cell, and the method is able to model and measure such effects. In the TNF-NF-κB pathway, the method computes and reveals changes in false alarm and miss probabilities in A20-deficient cells, caused by cell's inability to inhibit TNF-induced NF-κB response. In biological terms, a higher false alarm metric in this abnormal TNF signaling system indicates perceiving more cytokine signals which in fact do not exist at the system input, whereas a higher miss metric indicates that it is highly likely to miss signals that actually exist. Overall, this study demonstrates the ability of the developed method for modeling cell decision making errors under normal and abnormal conditions, and in the presence of transduction noise uncertainty. Compared to the previously reported pathway capacity metric, our results suggest that the introduced decision error metrics characterize signaling failures more accurately. This is mainly because while capacity is a useful metric to study information transmission in signaling pathways, it does not capture the overlap between TNF-induced noisy response curves.

Experimental design and statistical methods for improved hit detection in high-throughput screening.

PubMed

Malo, Nathalie; Hanley, James A; Carlile, Graeme; Liu, Jing; Pelletier, Jerry; Thomas, David; Nadon, Robert

2010-09-01

Identification of active compounds in high-throughput screening (HTS) contexts can be substantially improved by applying classical experimental design and statistical inference principles to all phases of HTS studies. The authors present both experimental and simulated data to illustrate how true-positive rates can be maximized without increasing false-positive rates by the following analytical process. First, the use of robust data preprocessing methods reduces unwanted variation by removing row, column, and plate biases. Second, replicate measurements allow estimation of the magnitude of the remaining random error and the use of formal statistical models to benchmark putative hits relative to what is expected by chance. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses revealed superior power for data preprocessed by a trimmed-mean polish method combined with the RVM t-test, particularly for small- to moderate-sized biological hits.

AfterQC: automatic filtering, trimming, error removing and quality control for fastq data.

PubMed

Chen, Shifu; Huang, Tanxiao; Zhou, Yanqing; Han, Yue; Xu, Mingyan; Gu, Jia

2017-03-14

Some applications, especially those clinical applications requiring high accuracy of sequencing data, usually have to face the troubles caused by unavoidable sequencing errors. Several tools have been proposed to profile the sequencing quality, but few of them can quantify or correct the sequencing errors. This unmet requirement motivated us to develop AfterQC, a tool with functions to profile sequencing errors and correct most of them, plus highly automated quality control and data filtering features. Different from most tools, AfterQC analyses the overlapping of paired sequences for pair-end sequencing data. Based on overlapping analysis, AfterQC can detect and cut adapters, and furthermore it gives a novel function to correct wrong bases in the overlapping regions. Another new feature is to detect and visualise sequencing bubbles, which can be commonly found on the flowcell lanes and may raise sequencing errors. Besides normal per cycle quality and base content plotting, AfterQC also provides features like polyX (a long sub-sequence of a same base X) filtering, automatic trimming and K-MER based strand bias profiling. For each single or pair of FastQ files, AfterQC filters out bad reads, detects and eliminates sequencer's bubble effects, trims reads at front and tail, detects the sequencing errors and corrects part of them, and finally outputs clean data and generates HTML reports with interactive figures. AfterQC can run in batch mode with multiprocess support, it can run with a single FastQ file, a single pair of FastQ files (for pair-end sequencing), or a folder for all included FastQ files to be processed automatically. Based on overlapping analysis, AfterQC can estimate the sequencing error rate and profile the error transform distribution. The results of our error profiling tests show that the error distribution is highly platform dependent. Much more than just another new quality control (QC) tool, AfterQC is able to perform quality control, data filtering, error profiling and base correction automatically. Experimental results show that AfterQC can help to eliminate the sequencing errors for pair-end sequencing data to provide much cleaner outputs, and consequently help to reduce the false-positive variants, especially for the low-frequency somatic mutations. While providing rich configurable options, AfterQC can detect and set all the options automatically and require no argument in most cases.

The random coding bound is tight for the average code.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallager, R. G.

1973-01-01

The random coding bound of information theory provides a well-known upper bound to the probability of decoding error for the best code of a given rate and block length. The bound is constructed by upperbounding the average error probability over an ensemble of codes. The bound is known to give the correct exponential dependence of error probability on block length for transmission rates above the critical rate, but it gives an incorrect exponential dependence at rates below a second lower critical rate. Here we derive an asymptotic expression for the average error probability over the ensemble of codes used in the random coding bound. The result shows that the weakness of the random coding bound at rates below the second critical rate is due not to upperbounding the ensemble average, but rather to the fact that the best codes are much better than the average at low rates.

Multicomponent blood lipid analysis by means of near infrared spectroscopy, in geese.

PubMed

Bazar, George; Eles, Viktoria; Kovacs, Zoltan; Romvari, Robert; Szabo, Andras

2016-08-01

This study provides accurate near infrared (NIR) spectroscopic models on some laboratory determined clinicochemical parameters (i.e. total lipid (5.57±1.95 g/l), triglyceride (2.59±1.36 mmol/l), total cholesterol (3.81±0.68 mmol/l), high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (2.45±0.58 mmol/l)) of blood serum samples of fattened geese. To increase the performance of multivariate chemometrics, samples significantly deviating from the regression models implying laboratory error were excluded from the final calibration datasets. Reference data of excluded samples having outlier spectra in principal component analysis were not marked as false. Samples deviating from the regression models but having non outlier spectra in PCA were identified as having false reference constituent values. Based on the NIR selection methods, 5% of the reference measurement data were rated as doubtful. The achieved models reached R(2) of 0.864, 0.966, 0.850, 0.793, and RMSE of 0.639 g/l, 0.232 mmol/l, 0.210 mmol/l, 0.241 mmol/l for total lipid, triglyceride, total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol, respectively, during independent validation. Classical analytical techniques focus on single constituents and often require chemicals, time-consuming measurements, and experienced technicians. NIR technique provides a quick, cost effective, non-hazardous alternative method for analysis of several constituents based on one single spectrum of each sample, and it also offers the possibility for looking at the laboratory reference data critically. Evaluation of reference data to identify and exclude falsely analyzed samples can provide warning feedback to the reference laboratory, especially in the case of analyses where laboratory methods are not perfectly suited to the subjected material and there is an increased chance of laboratory error. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A prospective audit of a nurse independent prescribing within critical care.

PubMed

Carberry, Martin; Connelly, Sarah; Murphy, Jennifer

2013-05-01

To determine the prescribing activity of different staff groups within intensive care unit (ICU) and combined high dependency unit (HDU), namely trainee and consultant medical staff and advanced nurse practitioners in critical care (ANPCC); to determine the number and type of prescription errors; to compare error rates between prescribing groups and to raise awareness of prescribing activity within critical care. The introduction of government legislation has led to the development of non-medical prescribing roles in acute care. This has facilitated an opportunity for the ANPCC working in critical care to develop a prescribing role. The audit was performed over 7 days (Monday-Sunday), on rolling days over a 7-week period in September and October 2011 in three ICUs. All drug entries made on the ICU prescription by the three groups, trainee medical staff, ANPCCs and consultant anaesthetists, were audited once for errors. Data were collected by reviewing all drug entries for errors namely, patient data, drug dose, concentration, rate and frequency, legibility and prescriber signature. A paper data collection tool was used initially; data was later entered onto a Microsoft Access data base. A total of 1418 drug entries were audited from 77 patient prescription Cardexes. Error rates were reported as, 40 errors in 1418 prescriptions (2·8%): ANPCC errors, n = 2 in 388 prescriptions (0·6%); trainee medical staff errors, n = 33 in 984 (3·4%); consultant errors, n = 5 in 73 (6·8%). The error rates were significantly different for different prescribing groups (p < 0·01). This audit shows that prescribing error rates were low (2·8%). Having the lowest error rate, the nurse practitioners are at least as effective as other prescribing groups within this audit, in terms of errors only, in prescribing diligence. National data is required in order to benchmark independent nurse prescribing practice in critical care. These findings could be used to inform research and role development within the critical care. © 2012 The Authors. Nursing in Critical Care © 2012 British Association of Critical Care Nurses.

Separate Medication Preparation Rooms Reduce Interruptions and Medication Errors in the Hospital Setting: A Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Huckels-Baumgart, Saskia; Baumgart, André; Buschmann, Ute; Schüpfer, Guido; Manser, Tanja

2016-12-21

Interruptions and errors during the medication process are common, but published literature shows no evidence supporting whether separate medication rooms are an effective single intervention in reducing interruptions and errors during medication preparation in hospitals. We tested the hypothesis that the rate of interruptions and reported medication errors would decrease as a result of the introduction of separate medication rooms. Our aim was to evaluate the effect of separate medication rooms on interruptions during medication preparation and on self-reported medication error rates. We performed a preintervention and postintervention study using direct structured observation of nurses during medication preparation and daily structured medication error self-reporting of nurses by questionnaires in 2 wards at a major teaching hospital in Switzerland. A volunteer sample of 42 nurses was observed preparing 1498 medications for 366 patients over 17 hours preintervention and postintervention on both wards. During 122 days, nurses completed 694 reporting sheets containing 208 medication errors. After the introduction of the separate medication room, the mean interruption rate decreased significantly from 51.8 to 30 interruptions per hour (P < 0.01), and the interruption-free preparation time increased significantly from 1.4 to 2.5 minutes (P < 0.05). Overall, the mean medication error rate per day was also significantly reduced after implementation of the separate medication room from 1.3 to 0.9 errors per day (P < 0.05). The present study showed the positive effect of a hospital-based intervention; after the introduction of the separate medication room, the interruption and medication error rates decreased significantly.

Evaluation of genomic high-throughput sequencing data generated on Illumina HiSeq and Genome Analyzer systems

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The generation and analysis of high-throughput sequencing data are becoming a major component of many studies in molecular biology and medical research. Illumina's Genome Analyzer (GA) and HiSeq instruments are currently the most widely used sequencing devices. Here, we comprehensively evaluate properties of genomic HiSeq and GAIIx data derived from two plant genomes and one virus, with read lengths of 95 to 150 bases. Results We provide quantifications and evidence for GC bias, error rates, error sequence context, effects of quality filtering, and the reliability of quality values. By combining different filtering criteria we reduced error rates 7-fold at the expense of discarding 12.5% of alignable bases. While overall error rates are low in HiSeq data we observed regions of accumulated wrong base calls. Only 3% of all error positions accounted for 24.7% of all substitution errors. Analyzing the forward and reverse strands separately revealed error rates of up to 18.7%. Insertions and deletions occurred at very low rates on average but increased to up to 2% in homopolymers. A positive correlation between read coverage and GC content was found depending on the GC content range. Conclusions The errors and biases we report have implications for the use and the interpretation of Illumina sequencing data. GAIIx and HiSeq data sets show slightly different error profiles. Quality filtering is essential to minimize downstream analysis artifacts. Supporting previous recommendations, the strand-specificity provides a criterion to distinguish sequencing errors from low abundance polymorphisms. PMID:22067484

32 CFR Appendix B to Part 150 - Format for Assignment of Errors and Brief on Behalf of Accused (§ 150.15)

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Format for Assignment of Errors and Brief on Behalf of Accused (§ 150.15) B Appendix B to Part 150 National Defense Department of Defense OFFICE OF... OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Pt. 150, App. B Appendix B to Part 150—Format for Assignment of Errors and...

32 CFR Appendix B to Part 150 - Format for Assignment of Errors and Brief on Behalf of Accused (§ 150.15)

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Format for Assignment of Errors and Brief on Behalf of Accused (§ 150.15) B Appendix B to Part 150 National Defense Department of Defense OFFICE OF... OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Pt. 150, App. B Appendix B to Part 150—Format for Assignment of Errors and...

Genotyping and inflated type I error rate in genome-wide association case/control studies

PubMed Central

Sampson, Joshua N; Zhao, Hongyu

2009-01-01

Background One common goal of a case/control genome wide association study (GWAS) is to find SNPs associated with a disease. Traditionally, the first step in such studies is to assign a genotype to each SNP in each subject, based on a statistic summarizing fluorescence measurements. When the distributions of the summary statistics are not well separated by genotype, the act of genotype assignment can lead to more potential problems than acknowledged by the literature. Results Specifically, we show that the proportions of each called genotype need not equal the true proportions in the population, even as the number of subjects grows infinitely large. The called genotypes for two subjects need not be independent, even when their true genotypes are independent. Consequently, p-values from tests of association can be anti-conservative, even when the distributions of the summary statistic for the cases and controls are identical. To address these problems, we propose two new tests designed to reduce the inflation in the type I error rate caused by these problems. The first algorithm, logiCALL, measures call quality by fully exploring the likelihood profile of intensity measurements, and the second algorithm avoids genotyping by using a likelihood ratio statistic. Conclusion Genotyping can introduce avoidable false positives in GWAS. PMID:19236714

THE TEACHING OF PHYSICS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

WARREN, J. W.

MANY IDEAS TAUGHT IN ELEMENTARY PHYSICS TODAY ARE EITHER FALSE IN FACT OR ABSURD IN LOGIC, AND HAVING BEEN CARRIED ALONG BY TRADITIONAL PRACTICE, THESE ERRORS AND MISCONCEPTIONS CONTINUE TO BE PROMULGATED. MANY MISCONCEPTIONS AND ERRORS COMMONLY FOUND IN CURRENT TEXTBOOKS ARE EXAMINED. AREAS DEALT WITH ARE (1) FORCES, (2) GRAVITATION, (3) ENERGY,…

27 CFR 478.48 - Correction of error on license.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Correction of error on license. 478.48 Section 478.48 Alcohol, Tobacco Products, and Firearms BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO, FIREARMS, AND EXPLOSIVES, DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE FIREARMS AND AMMUNITION COMMERCE IN FIREARMS AND AMMUNITION...

27 CFR 478.48 - Correction of error on license.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Correction of error on license. 478.48 Section 478.48 Alcohol, Tobacco Products, and Firearms BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO, FIREARMS, AND EXPLOSIVES, DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE FIREARMS AND AMMUNITION COMMERCE IN FIREARMS AND AMMUNITION...

27 CFR 478.48 - Correction of error on license.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Correction of error on license. 478.48 Section 478.48 Alcohol, Tobacco Products, and Firearms BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO, FIREARMS, AND EXPLOSIVES, DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE FIREARMS AND AMMUNITION COMMERCE IN FIREARMS AND AMMUNITION...

32 CFR 150.15 - Assignments of error and briefs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Assignments of error and briefs. 150.15 Section 150.15 National Defense Department of Defense OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE REGULATIONS..., double-spaced on white paper, and securely fastened at the top. All references to matters contained in...

32 CFR 150.15 - Assignments of error and briefs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Assignments of error and briefs. 150.15 Section 150.15 National Defense Department of Defense OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE REGULATIONS..., double-spaced on white paper, and securely fastened at the top. All references to matters contained in...

32 CFR 150.15 - Assignments of error and briefs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Assignments of error and briefs. 150.15 Section 150.15 National Defense Department of Defense OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE REGULATIONS..., double-spaced on white paper, and securely fastened at the top. All references to matters contained in...

32 CFR 150.15 - Assignments of error and briefs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Assignments of error and briefs. 150.15 Section 150.15 National Defense Department of Defense OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE REGULATIONS..., double-spaced on white paper, and securely fastened at the top. All references to matters contained in...

5 CFR 894.105 - Who may correct an error in my enrollment?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Who may correct an error in my enrollment? 894.105 Section 894.105 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES DENTAL AND VISION INSURANCE PROGRAM Administration and...

45 CFR 60.6 - Reporting errors, omissions, and revisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reporting errors, omissions, and revisions. 60.6 Section 60.6 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION NATIONAL PRACTITIONER DATA BANK FOR ADVERSE INFORMATION ON PHYSICIANS AND OTHER HEALTH CARE PRACTITIONERS Reporting of...

5 CFR 894.105 - Who may correct an error in my enrollment?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Who may correct an error in my enrollment? 894.105 Section 894.105 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES DENTAL AND VISION INSURANCE PROGRAM Administration and...

5 CFR 894.105 - Who may correct an error in my enrollment?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Who may correct an error in my enrollment? 894.105 Section 894.105 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES DENTAL AND VISION INSURANCE PROGRAM Administration and...

Error Rates in Measuring Teacher and School Performance Based on Student Test Score Gains. NCEE 2010-4004

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schochet, Peter Z.; Chiang, Hanley S.

2010-01-01

This paper addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using realistic performance measurement system schemes based on hypothesis testing, we develop error rate formulas based on OLS and Empirical Bayes estimators.…

Improving the prediction of going concern of Taiwanese listed companies using a hybrid of LASSO with data mining techniques.

PubMed

Goo, Yeung-Ja James; Chi, Der-Jang; Shen, Zong-De

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to establish rigorous and reliable going concern doubt (GCD) prediction models. This study first uses the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to select variables and then applies data mining techniques to establish prediction models, such as neural network (NN), classification and regression tree (CART), and support vector machine (SVM). The samples of this study include 48 GCD listed companies and 124 NGCD (non-GCD) listed companies from 2002 to 2013 in the TEJ database. We conduct fivefold cross validation in order to identify the prediction accuracy. According to the empirical results, the prediction accuracy of the LASSO-NN model is 88.96 % (Type I error rate is 12.22 %; Type II error rate is 7.50 %), the prediction accuracy of the LASSO-CART model is 88.75 % (Type I error rate is 13.61 %; Type II error rate is 14.17 %), and the prediction accuracy of the LASSO-SVM model is 89.79 % (Type I error rate is 10.00 %; Type II error rate is 15.83 %).

Performance improvement of robots using a learning control scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishna, Ramuhalli; Chiang, Pen-Tai; Yang, Jackson C. S.

1987-01-01

Many applications of robots require that the same task be repeated a number of times. In such applications, the errors associated with one cycle are also repeated every cycle of the operation. An off-line learning control scheme is used here to modify the command function which would result in smaller errors in the next operation. The learning scheme is based on a knowledge of the errors and error rates associated with each cycle. Necessary conditions for the iterative scheme to converge to zero errors are derived analytically considering a second order servosystem model. Computer simulations show that the errors are reduced at a faster rate if the error rate is included in the iteration scheme. The results also indicate that the scheme may increase the magnitude of errors if the rate information is not included in the iteration scheme. Modification of the command input using a phase and gain adjustment is also proposed to reduce the errors with one attempt. The scheme is then applied to a computer model of a robot system similar to PUMA 560. Improved performance of the robot is shown by considering various cases of trajectory tracing. The scheme can be successfully used to improve the performance of actual robots within the limitations of the repeatability and noise characteristics of the robot.

Improved compliance with the World Health Organization Surgical Safety Checklist is associated with reduced surgical specimen labelling errors.

PubMed

Martis, Walston R; Hannam, Jacqueline A; Lee, Tracey; Merry, Alan F; Mitchell, Simon J

2016-09-09

A new approach to administering the surgical safety checklist (SSC) at our institution using wall-mounted charts for each SSC domain coupled with migrated leadership among operating room (OR) sub-teams, led to improved compliance with the Sign Out domain. Since surgical specimens are reviewed at Sign Out, we aimed to quantify any related change in surgical specimen labelling errors. Prospectively maintained error logs for surgical specimens sent to pathology were examined for the six months before and after introduction of the new SSC administration paradigm. We recorded errors made in the labelling or completion of the specimen pot and on the specimen laboratory request form. Total error rates were calculated from the number of errors divided by total number of specimens. Rates from the two periods were compared using a chi square test. There were 19 errors in 4,760 specimens (rate 3.99/1,000) and eight errors in 5,065 specimens (rate 1.58/1,000) before and after the change in SSC administration paradigm (P=0.0225). Improved compliance with administering the Sign Out domain of the SSC can reduce surgical specimen errors. This finding provides further evidence that OR teams should optimise compliance with the SSC.

Citation Help in Databases: The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Ullen, Mary; Kessler, Jane

2012-01-01

In 2005, the authors reviewed citation help in databases and found an error rate of 4.4 errors per citation. This article describes a follow-up study that revealed a modest improvement in the error rate to 3.4 errors per citation, still unacceptably high. The most problematic area was retrieval statements. The authors conclude that librarians…

Mimicking Aphasic Semantic Errors in Normal Speech Production: Evidence from a Novel Experimental Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodgson, Catherine; Lambon Ralph, Matthew A.

2008-01-01

Semantic errors are commonly found in semantic dementia (SD) and some forms of stroke aphasia and provide insights into semantic processing and speech production. Low error rates are found in standard picture naming tasks in normal controls. In order to increase error rates and thus provide an experimental model of aphasic performance, this study…

Physical fault tolerance of nanoelectronics.

PubMed

Szkopek, Thomas; Roychowdhury, Vwani P; Antoniadis, Dimitri A; Damoulakis, John N

2011-04-29

The error rate in complementary transistor circuits is suppressed exponentially in electron number, arising from an intrinsic physical implementation of fault-tolerant error correction. Contrariwise, explicit assembly of gates into the most efficient known fault-tolerant architecture is characterized by a subexponential suppression of error rate with electron number, and incurs significant overhead in wiring and complexity. We conclude that it is more efficient to prevent logical errors with physical fault tolerance than to correct logical errors with fault-tolerant architecture.

Comparison of Agar Dilution, Disk Diffusion, MicroScan, and Vitek Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing Methods to Broth Microdilution for Detection of Fluoroquinolone-Resistant Isolates of the Family Enterobacteriaceae

PubMed Central

Steward, Christine D.; Stocker, Sheila A.; Swenson, Jana M.; O’Hara, Caroline M.; Edwards, Jonathan R.; Gaynes, Robert P.; McGowan, John E.; Tenover, Fred C.

1999-01-01

Fluoroquinolone resistance appears to be increasing in many species of bacteria, particularly in those causing nosocomial infections. However, the accuracy of some antimicrobial susceptibility testing methods for detecting fluoroquinolone resistance remains uncertain. Therefore, we compared the accuracy of the results of agar dilution, disk diffusion, MicroScan Walk Away Neg Combo 15 conventional panels, and Vitek GNS-F7 cards to the accuracy of the results of the broth microdilution reference method for detection of ciprofloxacin and ofloxacin resistance in 195 clinical isolates of the family Enterobacteriaceae collected from six U.S. hospitals for a national surveillance project (Project ICARE [Intensive Care Antimicrobial Resistance Epidemiology]). For ciprofloxacin, very major error rates were 0% (disk diffusion and MicroScan), 0.9% (agar dilution), and 2.7% (Vitek), while major error rates ranged from 0% (agar dilution) to 3.7% (MicroScan and Vitek). Minor error rates ranged from 12.3% (agar dilution) to 20.5% (MicroScan). For ofloxacin, no very major errors were observed, and major errors were noted only with MicroScan (3.7% major error rate). Minor error rates ranged from 8.2% (agar dilution) to 18.5% (Vitek). Minor errors for all methods were substantially reduced when results with MICs within ±1 dilution of the broth microdilution reference MIC were excluded from analysis. However, the high number of minor errors by all test systems remains a concern. PMID:9986809

Quantizing and sampling considerations in digital phased-locked loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurst, G. T.; Gupta, S. C.

1974-01-01

The quantizer problem is first considered. The conditions under which the uniform white sequence model for the quantizer error is valid are established independent of the sampling rate. An equivalent spectral density is defined for the quantizer error resulting in an effective SNR value. This effective SNR may be used to determine quantized performance from infinitely fine quantized results. Attention is given to sampling rate considerations. Sampling rate characteristics of the digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) structure are investigated for the infinitely fine quantized system. The predicted phase error variance equation is examined as a function of the sampling rate. Simulation results are presented and a method is described which enables the minimum required sampling rate to be determined from the predicted phase error variance equations.

Organizational safety culture and medical error reporting by Israeli nurses.

PubMed

Kagan, Ilya; Barnoy, Sivia

2013-09-01

To investigate the association between patient safety culture (PSC) and the incidence and reporting rate of medical errors by Israeli nurses. Self-administered structured questionnaires were distributed to a convenience sample of 247 registered nurses enrolled in training programs at Tel Aviv University (response rate = 91%). The questionnaire's three sections examined the incidence of medication mistakes in clinical practice, the reporting rate for these errors, and the participants' views and perceptions of the safety culture in their workplace at three levels (organizational, departmental, and individual performance). Pearson correlation coefficients, t tests, and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze the data. Most nurses encountered medical errors from a daily to a weekly basis. Six percent of the sample never reported their own errors, while half reported their own errors "rarely or sometimes." The level of PSC was positively and significantly correlated with the error reporting rate. PSC, place of birth, error incidence, and not having an academic nursing degree were significant predictors of error reporting, together explaining 28% of variance. This study confirms the influence of an organizational safety climate on readiness to report errors. Senior healthcare executives and managers can make a major impact on safety culture development by creating and promoting a vision and strategy for quality and safety and fostering their employees' motivation to implement improvement programs at the departmental and individual level. A positive, carefully designed organizational safety culture can encourage error reporting by staff and so improve patient safety. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Task errors by emergency physicians are associated with interruptions, multitasking, fatigue and working memory capacity: a prospective, direct observation study.

PubMed

Westbrook, Johanna I; Raban, Magdalena Z; Walter, Scott R; Douglas, Heather

2018-01-09

Interruptions and multitasking have been demonstrated in experimental studies to reduce individuals' task performance. These behaviours are frequently used by clinicians in high-workload, dynamic clinical environments, yet their effects have rarely been studied. To assess the relative contributions of interruptions and multitasking by emergency physicians to prescribing errors. 36 emergency physicians were shadowed over 120 hours. All tasks, interruptions and instances of multitasking were recorded. Physicians' working memory capacity (WMC) and preference for multitasking were assessed using the Operation Span Task (OSPAN) and Inventory of Polychronic Values. Following observation, physicians were asked about their sleep in the previous 24 hours. Prescribing errors were used as a measure of task performance. We performed multivariate analysis of prescribing error rates to determine associations with interruptions and multitasking, also considering physician seniority, age, psychometric measures, workload and sleep. Physicians experienced 7.9 interruptions/hour. 28 clinicians were observed prescribing 239 medication orders which contained 208 prescribing errors. While prescribing, clinicians were interrupted 9.4 times/hour. Error rates increased significantly if physicians were interrupted (rate ratio (RR) 2.82; 95% CI 1.23 to 6.49) or multitasked (RR 1.86; 95% CI 1.35 to 2.56) while prescribing. Having below-average sleep showed a >15-fold increase in clinical error rate (RR 16.44; 95% CI 4.84 to 55.81). WMC was protective against errors; for every 10-point increase on the 75-point OSPAN, a 19% decrease in prescribing errors was observed. There was no effect of polychronicity, workload, physician gender or above-average sleep on error rates. Interruptions, multitasking and poor sleep were associated with significantly increased rates of prescribing errors among emergency physicians. WMC mitigated the negative influence of these factors to an extent. These results confirm experimental findings in other fields and raise questions about the acceptability of the high rates of multitasking and interruption in clinical environments. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Assessing environmental DNA detection in controlled lentic systems.

PubMed

Moyer, Gregory R; Díaz-Ferguson, Edgardo; Hill, Jeffrey E; Shea, Colin

2014-01-01

Little consideration has been given to environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling strategies for rare species. The certainty of species detection relies on understanding false positive and false negative error rates. We used artificial ponds together with logistic regression models to assess the detection of African jewelfish eDNA at varying fish densities (0, 0.32, 1.75, and 5.25 fish/m3). Our objectives were to determine the most effective water stratum for eDNA detection, estimate true and false positive eDNA detection rates, and assess the number of water samples necessary to minimize the risk of false negatives. There were 28 eDNA detections in 324, 1-L, water samples collected from four experimental ponds. The best-approximating model indicated that the per-L-sample probability of eDNA detection was 4.86 times more likely for every 2.53 fish/m3 (1 SD) increase in fish density and 1.67 times less likely for every 1.02 C (1 SD) increase in water temperature. The best section of the water column to detect eDNA was the surface and to a lesser extent the bottom. Although no false positives were detected, the estimated likely number of false positives in samples from ponds that contained fish averaged 3.62. At high densities of African jewelfish, 3-5 L of water provided a >95% probability for the presence/absence of its eDNA. Conversely, at moderate and low densities, the number of water samples necessary to achieve a >95% probability of eDNA detection approximated 42-73 and >100 L, respectively. Potential biases associated with incomplete detection of eDNA could be alleviated via formal estimation of eDNA detection probabilities under an occupancy modeling framework; alternatively, the filtration of hundreds of liters of water may be required to achieve a high (e.g., 95%) level of certainty that African jewelfish eDNA will be detected at low densities (i.e., <0.32 fish/m3 or 1.75 g/m3).

What does "Diversity" Mean for Public Engagement in Science? A New Metric for Innovation Ecosystem Diversity.

PubMed

Özdemir, Vural; Springer, Simon

2018-03-01

Diversity is increasingly at stake in early 21st century. Diversity is often conceptualized across ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic status, sexual preference, and professional credentials, among other categories of difference. These are important and relevant considerations and yet, they are incomplete. Diversity also rests in the way we frame questions long before answers are sought. Such diversity in the framing (epistemology) of scientific and societal questions is important for they influence the types of data, results, and impacts produced by research. Errors in the framing of a research question, whether in technical science or social science, are known as type III errors, as opposed to the better known type I (false positives) and type II errors (false negatives). Kimball defined "error of the third kind" as giving the right answer to the wrong problem. Raiffa described the type III error as correctly solving the wrong problem. Type III errors are upstream or design flaws, often driven by unchecked human values and power, and can adversely impact an entire innovation ecosystem, waste money, time, careers, and precious resources by focusing on the wrong or incorrectly framed question and hypothesis. Decades may pass while technology experts, scientists, social scientists, funding agencies and management consultants continue to tackle questions that suffer from type III errors. We propose a new diversity metric, the Frame Diversity Index (FDI), based on the hitherto neglected diversities in knowledge framing. The FDI would be positively correlated with epistemological diversity and technological democracy, and inversely correlated with prevalence of type III errors in innovation ecosystems, consortia, and knowledge networks. We suggest that the FDI can usefully measure (and prevent) type III error risks in innovation ecosystems, and help broaden the concepts and practices of diversity and inclusion in science, technology, innovation and society.

Model studies of the beam-filling error for rain-rate retrieval with microwave radiometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ha, Eunho; North, Gerald R.

1995-01-01

Low-frequency (less than 20 GHz) single-channel microwave retrievals of rain rate encounter the problem of beam-filling error. This error stems from the fact that the relationship between microwave brightness temperature and rain rate is nonlinear, coupled with the fact that the field of view is large or comparable to important scales of variability of the rain field. This means that one may not simply insert the area average of the brightness temperature into the formula for rain rate without incurring both bias and random error. The statistical heterogeneity of the rain-rate field in the footprint of the instrument is key to determining the nature of these errors. This paper makes use of a series of random rain-rate fields to study the size of the bias and random error associated with beam filling. A number of examples are analyzed in detail: the binomially distributed field, the gamma, the Gaussian, the mixed gamma, the lognormal, and the mixed lognormal ('mixed' here means there is a finite probability of no rain rate at a point of space-time). Of particular interest are the applicability of a simple error formula due to Chiu and collaborators and a formula that might hold in the large field of view limit. It is found that the simple formula holds for Gaussian rain-rate fields but begins to fail for highly skewed fields such as the mixed lognormal. While not conclusively demonstrated here, it is suggested that the notionof climatologically adjusting the retrievals to remove the beam-filling bias is a reasonable proposition.

Effect of cataract surgery and pupil dilation on iris pattern recognition for personal authentication.

PubMed

Dhir, L; Habib, N E; Monro, D M; Rakshit, S

2010-06-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of cataract surgery and pupil dilation on iris pattern recognition for personal authentication. Prospective non-comparative cohort study. Images of 15 subjects were captured before (enrolment), and 5, 10, and 15 min after instillation of mydriatics before routine cataract surgery. After cataract surgery, images were captured 2 weeks thereafter. Enrolled and test images (after pupillary dilation and after cataract surgery) were segmented to extract the iris. This was then unwrapped onto a rectangular format for normalization and a novel method using the Discrete Cosine Transform was applied to encode the image into binary bits. The numerical difference between two iris codes (Hamming distance, HD) was calculated. The HD between identification and enrolment codes was used as a score and was compared with a confidence threshold for specific equipment, giving a match or non-match result. The Correct Recognition Rate (CRR) and Equal Error Rates (EERs) were calculated to analyse overall system performance. After cataract surgery, perfect identification and verification was achieved, with zero false acceptance rate, zero false rejection rate, and zero EER. After pupillary dilation, non-elastic deformation occurs and a CRR of 86.67% and EER of 9.33% were obtained. Conventional circle-based localization methods are inadequate. Matching reliability decreases considerably with increase in pupillary dilation. Cataract surgery has no effect on iris pattern recognition, whereas pupil dilation may be used to defeat an iris-based authentication system.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McInerney, Peter; Adams, Paul; Hadi, Masood Z.

As larger-scale cloning projects become more prevalent, there is an increasing need for comparisons among high fidelity DNA polymerases used for PCR amplification. All polymerases marketed for PCR applications are tested for fidelity properties (i.e., error rate determination) by vendors, and numerous literature reports have addressed PCR enzyme fidelity. Nonetheless, it is often difficult to make direct comparisons among different enzymes due to numerous methodological and analytical differences from study to study. We have measured the error rates for 6 DNA polymerases commonly used in PCR applications, including 3 polymerases typically used for cloning applications requiring high fidelity. Error ratemore » measurement values reported here were obtained by direct sequencing of cloned PCR products. The strategy employed here allows interrogation of error rate across a very large DNA sequence space, since 94 unique DNA targets were used as templates for PCR cloning. The six enzymes included in the study, Taq polymerase, AccuPrime-Taq High Fidelity, KOD Hot Start, cloned Pfu polymerase, Phusion Hot Start, and Pwo polymerase, we find the lowest error rates with Pfu , Phusion, and Pwo polymerases. Error rates are comparable for these 3 enzymes and are >10x lower than the error rate observed with Taq polymerase. Mutation spectra are reported, with the 3 high fidelity enzymes displaying broadly similar types of mutations. For these enzymes, transition mutations predominate, with little bias observed for type of transition.« less

Decision support system for determining the contact lens for refractive errors patients with classification ID3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Situmorang, B. H.; Setiawan, M. P.; Tosida, E. T.

2017-01-01

Refractive errors are abnormalities of the refraction of light so that the shadows do not focus precisely on the retina resulting in blurred vision [1]. Refractive errors causing the patient should wear glasses or contact lenses in order eyesight returned to normal. The use of glasses or contact lenses in a person will be different from others, it is influenced by patient age, the amount of tear production, vision prescription, and astigmatic. Because the eye is one organ of the human body is very important to see, then the accuracy in determining glasses or contact lenses which will be used is required. This research aims to develop a decision support system that can produce output on the right contact lenses for refractive errors patients with a value of 100% accuracy. Iterative Dichotomize Three (ID3) classification methods will generate gain and entropy values of attributes that include code sample data, age of the patient, astigmatic, the ratio of tear production, vision prescription, and classes that will affect the outcome of the decision tree. The eye specialist test result for the training data obtained the accuracy rate of 96.7% and an error rate of 3.3%, the result test using confusion matrix obtained the accuracy rate of 96.1% and an error rate of 3.1%; for the data testing obtained accuracy rate of 100% and an error rate of 0.

Mitigating errors caused by interruptions during medication verification and administration: interventions in a simulated ambulatory chemotherapy setting.

PubMed

Prakash, Varuna; Koczmara, Christine; Savage, Pamela; Trip, Katherine; Stewart, Janice; McCurdie, Tara; Cafazzo, Joseph A; Trbovich, Patricia

2014-11-01

Nurses are frequently interrupted during medication verification and administration; however, few interventions exist to mitigate resulting errors, and the impact of these interventions on medication safety is poorly understood. The study objectives were to (A) assess the effects of interruptions on medication verification and administration errors, and (B) design and test the effectiveness of targeted interventions at reducing these errors. The study focused on medication verification and administration in an ambulatory chemotherapy setting. A simulation laboratory experiment was conducted to determine interruption-related error rates during specific medication verification and administration tasks. Interventions to reduce these errors were developed through a participatory design process, and their error reduction effectiveness was assessed through a postintervention experiment. Significantly more nurses committed medication errors when interrupted than when uninterrupted. With use of interventions when interrupted, significantly fewer nurses made errors in verifying medication volumes contained in syringes (16/18; 89% preintervention error rate vs 11/19; 58% postintervention error rate; p=0.038; Fisher's exact test) and programmed in ambulatory pumps (17/18; 94% preintervention vs 11/19; 58% postintervention; p=0.012). The rate of error commission significantly decreased with use of interventions when interrupted during intravenous push (16/18; 89% preintervention vs 6/19; 32% postintervention; p=0.017) and pump programming (7/18; 39% preintervention vs 1/19; 5% postintervention; p=0.017). No statistically significant differences were observed for other medication verification tasks. Interruptions can lead to medication verification and administration errors. Interventions were highly effective at reducing unanticipated errors of commission in medication administration tasks, but showed mixed effectiveness at reducing predictable errors of detection in medication verification tasks. These findings can be generalised and adapted to mitigate interruption-related errors in other settings where medication verification and administration are required. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Mitigating errors caused by interruptions during medication verification and administration: interventions in a simulated ambulatory chemotherapy setting

PubMed Central

Prakash, Varuna; Koczmara, Christine; Savage, Pamela; Trip, Katherine; Stewart, Janice; McCurdie, Tara; Cafazzo, Joseph A; Trbovich, Patricia

2014-01-01

Background Nurses are frequently interrupted during medication verification and administration; however, few interventions exist to mitigate resulting errors, and the impact of these interventions on medication safety is poorly understood. Objective The study objectives were to (A) assess the effects of interruptions on medication verification and administration errors, and (B) design and test the effectiveness of targeted interventions at reducing these errors. Methods The study focused on medication verification and administration in an ambulatory chemotherapy setting. A simulation laboratory experiment was conducted to determine interruption-related error rates during specific medication verification and administration tasks. Interventions to reduce these errors were developed through a participatory design process, and their error reduction effectiveness was assessed through a postintervention experiment. Results Significantly more nurses committed medication errors when interrupted than when uninterrupted. With use of interventions when interrupted, significantly fewer nurses made errors in verifying medication volumes contained in syringes (16/18; 89% preintervention error rate vs 11/19; 58% postintervention error rate; p=0.038; Fisher's exact test) and programmed in ambulatory pumps (17/18; 94% preintervention vs 11/19; 58% postintervention; p=0.012). The rate of error commission significantly decreased with use of interventions when interrupted during intravenous push (16/18; 89% preintervention vs 6/19; 32% postintervention; p=0.017) and pump programming (7/18; 39% preintervention vs 1/19; 5% postintervention; p=0.017). No statistically significant differences were observed for other medication verification tasks. Conclusions Interruptions can lead to medication verification and administration errors. Interventions were highly effective at reducing unanticipated errors of commission in medication administration tasks, but showed mixed effectiveness at reducing predictable errors of detection in medication verification tasks. These findings can be generalised and adapted to mitigate interruption-related errors in other settings where medication verification and administration are required. PMID:24906806

ClubSub-P: Cluster-Based Subcellular Localization Prediction for Gram-Negative Bacteria and Archaea

PubMed Central

Paramasivam, Nagarajan; Linke, Dirk

2011-01-01

The subcellular localization (SCL) of proteins provides important clues to their function in a cell. In our efforts to predict useful vaccine targets against Gram-negative bacteria, we noticed that misannotated start codons frequently lead to wrongly assigned SCLs. This and other problems in SCL prediction, such as the relatively high false-positive and false-negative rates of some tools, can be avoided by applying multiple prediction tools to groups of homologous proteins. Here we present ClubSub-P, an online database that combines existing SCL prediction tools into a consensus pipeline from more than 600 proteomes of fully sequenced microorganisms. On top of the consensus prediction at the level of single sequences, the tool uses clusters of homologous proteins from Gram-negative bacteria and from Archaea to eliminate false-positive and false-negative predictions. ClubSub-P can assign the SCL of proteins from Gram-negative bacteria and Archaea with high precision. The database is searchable, and can easily be expanded using either new bacterial genomes or new prediction tools as they become available. This will further improve the performance of the SCL prediction, as well as the detection of misannotated start codons and other annotation errors. ClubSub-P is available online at http://toolkit.tuebingen.mpg.de/clubsubp/ PMID:22073040

TECHNICAL ADVANCES: Effects of genotyping protocols on success and errors in identifying individual river otters (Lontra canadensis) from their faeces.

PubMed

Hansen, Heidi; Ben-David, Merav; McDonald, David B

2008-03-01

In noninvasive genetic sampling, when genotyping error rates are high and recapture rates are low, misidentification of individuals can lead to overestimation of population size. Thus, estimating genotyping errors is imperative. Nonetheless, conducting multiple polymerase chain reactions (PCRs) at multiple loci is time-consuming and costly. To address the controversy regarding the minimum number of PCRs required for obtaining a consensus genotype, we compared consumer-style the performance of two genotyping protocols (multiple-tubes and 'comparative method') in respect to genotyping success and error rates. Our results from 48 faecal samples of river otters (Lontra canadensis) collected in Wyoming in 2003, and from blood samples of five captive river otters amplified with four different primers, suggest that use of the comparative genotyping protocol can minimize the number of PCRs per locus. For all but five samples at one locus, the same consensus genotypes were reached with fewer PCRs and with reduced error rates with this protocol compared to the multiple-tubes method. This finding is reassuring because genotyping errors can occur at relatively high rates even in tissues such as blood and hair. In addition, we found that loci that amplify readily and yield consensus genotypes, may still exhibit high error rates (7-32%) and that amplification with different primers resulted in different types and rates of error. Thus, assigning a genotype based on a single PCR for several loci could result in misidentification of individuals. We recommend that programs designed to statistically assign consensus genotypes should be modified to allow the different treatment of heterozygotes and homozygotes intrinsic to the comparative method. © 2007 The Authors.

National suicide rates a century after Durkheim: do we know enough to estimate error?

PubMed

Claassen, Cynthia A; Yip, Paul S; Corcoran, Paul; Bossarte, Robert M; Lawrence, Bruce A; Currier, Glenn W

2010-06-01

Durkheim's nineteenth-century analysis of national suicide rates dismissed prior concerns about mortality data fidelity. Over the intervening century, however, evidence documenting various types of error in suicide data has only mounted, and surprising levels of such error continue to be routinely uncovered. Yet the annual suicide rate remains the most widely used population-level suicide metric today. After reviewing the unique sources of bias incurred during stages of suicide data collection and concatenation, we propose a model designed to uniformly estimate error in future studies. A standardized method of error estimation uniformly applied to mortality data could produce data capable of promoting high quality analyses of cross-national research questions.

Does Mckuer's Law Hold for Heart Rate Control via Biofeedback Display?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Courter, B. J.; Jex, H. R.

1984-01-01

Some persons can control their pulse rate with the aid of a biofeedback display. If the biofeedback display is modified to show the error between a command pulse-rate and the measured rate, a compensatory (error correcting) heart rate tracking control loop can be created. The dynamic response characteristics of this control loop when subjected to step and quasi-random disturbances were measured. The control loop includes a beat-to-beat cardiotachmeter differenced with a forcing function from a quasi-random input generator; the resulting error pulse-rate is displayed as feedback. The subject acts to null the displayed pulse-rate error, thereby closing a compensatory control loop. McRuer's Law should hold for this case. A few subjects already skilled in voluntary pulse-rate control were tested for heart-rate control response. Control-law properties are derived, such as: crossover frequency, stability margins, and closed-loop bandwidth. These are evaluated for a range of forcing functions and for step as well as random disturbances.

Online automatic tuning and control for fed-batch cultivation

PubMed Central

van Straten, Gerrit; van der Pol, Leo A.; van Boxtel, Anton J. B.

2007-01-01

Performance of controllers applied in biotechnological production is often below expectation. Online automatic tuning has the capability to improve control performance by adjusting control parameters. This work presents automatic tuning approaches for model reference specific growth rate control during fed-batch cultivation. The approaches are direct methods that use the error between observed specific growth rate and its set point; systematic perturbations of the cultivation are not necessary. Two automatic tuning methods proved to be efficient, in which the adaptation rate is based on a combination of the error, squared error and integral error. These methods are relatively simple and robust against disturbances, parameter uncertainties, and initialization errors. Application of the specific growth rate controller yields a stable system. The controller and automatic tuning methods are qualified by simulations and laboratory experiments with Bordetella pertussis. PMID:18157554

A Response to Odland et al.'s Misleading, Alarmist Estimates of Risk for Overpathologizing when Interpreting the MMPI-2-RF.

PubMed

Tarescavage, Anthony M; Ben-Porath, Yossef S

2015-01-01

In a recently published article in this journal, Odland, Lammy, Perle, Martin, and Grote report Monte Carlo-simulated normative base rates of scale elevations on the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF). Their primary conclusion--reflected in the title of their article--is that MMPI-2-RF interpretation is associated with "high risk of pathologizing healthy adults" when the 40 substantive scales of the test are simultaneously interpreted. In this paper, we describe how their conclusion follows from several faulty premises, three of which were already debunked in an earlier article and remain false despite counterarguments proposed by Odland and colleagues. We also address these authors' misinterpretation of their analyses and, furthermore, their premise that MMPI-2-RF interpretive guidelines are flawed because they "currently do not account for a basic statistical principle: Type I (or alpha) error inflation" (p. 1). This premise is irrelevant to psychological test interpretation and misaligned with neuropsychological testing literature cited in support of it. Consistent with suggestions by some of the authors they cite, we reiterate MMPI-2-RF interpretive guidelines designed to mitigate the impact of measurement error (not alpha error) by way of a scientific assessment approach that relies on integration of information derived from multiple sources.

Fine-Scale Event Location and Error Analysis in NET-VISA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, N. S.; Russell, S.

2016-12-01

NET-VISA is a generative probabilistic model for the occurrence of seismic, hydro, and atmospheric events, and the propagation of energy from these events through various mediums and phases before being detected, or misdetected, by IMS stations. It is built on top of the basic station, and arrival detection processing at the IDC, and is currently being tested in the IDC network processing pipelines. A key distinguishing feature of NET-VISA is that it is easy to incorporate prior scientific knowledge and historical data into the probabilistic model. The model accounts for both detections and mis-detections when forming events, and this allows it to make more accurate event hypothesis. It has been continuously evaluated since 2012, and in each year it makes a roughly 60% reduction in the number of missed events without increasing the false event rate as compared to the existing GA algorithm. More importantly the model finds large numbers of events that have been confirmed by regional seismic bulletins but missed by the IDC analysts using the same data. In this work we focus on enhancements to the model to improve the location accuracy, and error ellipses. We will present a new version of the model that focuses on the fine scale around the event location, and present error ellipses and analysis of recent important events.

Total Dose Effects on Error Rates in Linear Bipolar Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchner, Stephen; McMorrow, Dale; Bernard, Muriel; Roche, Nicholas; Dusseau, Laurent

2007-01-01

The shapes of single event transients in linear bipolar circuits are distorted by exposure to total ionizing dose radiation. Some transients become broader and others become narrower. Such distortions may affect SET system error rates in a radiation environment. If the transients are broadened by TID, the error rate could increase during the course of a mission, a possibility that has implications for hardness assurance.

High-Threshold Low-Overhead Fault-Tolerant Classical Computation and the Replacement of Measurements with Unitary Quantum Gates.

PubMed

Cruikshank, Benjamin; Jacobs, Kurt

2017-07-21

von Neumann's classic "multiplexing" method is unique in achieving high-threshold fault-tolerant classical computation (FTCC), but has several significant barriers to implementation: (i) the extremely complex circuits required by randomized connections, (ii) the difficulty of calculating its performance in practical regimes of both code size and logical error rate, and (iii) the (perceived) need for large code sizes. Here we present numerical results indicating that the third assertion is false, and introduce a novel scheme that eliminates the two remaining problems while retaining a threshold very close to von Neumann's ideal of 1/6. We present a simple, highly ordered wiring structure that vastly reduces the circuit complexity, demonstrates that randomization is unnecessary, and provides a feasible method to calculate the performance. This in turn allows us to show that the scheme requires only moderate code sizes, vastly outperforms concatenation schemes, and under a standard error model a unitary implementation realizes universal FTCC with an accuracy threshold of p<5.5%, in which p is the error probability for 3-qubit gates. FTCC is a key component in realizing measurement-free protocols for quantum information processing. In view of this, we use our scheme to show that all-unitary quantum circuits can reproduce any measurement-based feedback process in which the asymptotic error probabilities for the measurement and feedback are (32/63)p≈0.51p and 1.51p, respectively.

Ethics and Animal Numbers: Informal Analyses, Uncertain Sample Sizes, Inefficient Replications, and Type I Errors

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

To obtain approval for the use vertebrate animals in research, an investigator must assure an ethics committee that the proposed number of animals is the minimum necessary to achieve a scientific goal. How does an investigator make that assurance? A power analysis is most accurate when the outcome is known before the study, which it rarely is. A ‘pilot study’ is appropriate only when the number of animals used is a tiny fraction of the numbers that will be invested in the main study because the data for the pilot animals cannot legitimately be used again in the main study without increasing the rate of type I errors (false discovery). Traditional significance testing requires the investigator to determine the final sample size before any data are collected and then to delay analysis of any of the data until all of the data are final. An investigator often learns at that point either that the sample size was larger than necessary or too small to achieve significance. Subjects cannot be added at this point in the study without increasing type I errors. In addition, journal reviewers may require more replications in quantitative studies than are truly necessary. Sequential stopping rules used with traditional significance tests allow incremental accumulation of data on a biomedical research problem so that significance, replicability, and use of a minimal number of animals can be assured without increasing type I errors. PMID:21838970

Teaching and Learning "False Friends": A Review of Some Useful Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varela, Maria Luisa Roca

2011-01-01

False friends are words in two languages that are similar in form but different in meaning (e.g. English "library" "place for reading and borrowing books" vs Spanish "libreria" "bookshop"). From the point of view of EFL teaching and learning, false friends are important because they lead us to errors in L2 production and comprehension (e.g. "I am…

Performance analysis of a cascaded coding scheme with interleaved outer code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1986-01-01

A cascaded coding scheme for a random error channel with a bit-error rate is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code C sub 1 is an (n sub 1, m sub 1l) binary linear block code which is designed for simultaneous error correction and detection. The outer code C sub 2 is a linear block code with symbols from the Galois field GF (2 sup l) which is designed for correcting both symbol errors and erasures, and is interleaved with a degree m sub 1. A procedure for computing the probability of a correct decoding is presented and an upper bound on the probability of a decoding error is derived. The bound provides much better results than the previous bound for a cascaded coding scheme with an interleaved outer code. Example schemes with inner codes ranging from high rates to very low rates are evaluated. Several schemes provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit-error rates say 10 to the -1 to 10 to the -2 power.

The effects of increasing semantic-associate list length on the Deese-Roediger-McDermott false recognition memory: Dual false-memory process in retrieval from sub- and supraspan lists.

PubMed

Jou, Jerwen; Arredondo, Mario L; Li, Cheng; Escamilla, Eric E; Zuniga, Richard

2017-10-01

In this study, the number of semantic associates in Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) lists was varied from 4 to 14 in a modified Sternberg paradigm. The false alarm (FA) and correct rejection (CR) reaction time (RT)/memory-set size (MSS) functions of critical lures showed a cross-over interaction at approximately MSS 7, suggesting a reversal of the relative dominance between these two responses to the critical lure at this point and also indicating the location of the boundary between the sub- and supraspan MSS. For the subspan lists, FA to critical lures was slower than CR, suggesting a slow, strategic mechanism driving the false memory. Conversely, for the supraspan lists, critical lure FA was faster than its CR, suggesting a spontaneous mechanism driving the false memory. Results of two experiments showed that an automatic, fast, and a slow, controlled process could be error-prone or error-corrective, depending on the length of the DRM memory list. Thus there is a dual retrieval process in false memory as in true memory. The findings can be explained by both the activation/monitoring and the fuzzy-trace theories.

The effect of speaking rate on serial-order sound-level errors in normal healthy controls and persons with aphasia.

PubMed

Fossett, Tepanta R D; McNeil, Malcolm R; Pratt, Sheila R; Tompkins, Connie A; Shuster, Linda I

Although many speech errors can be generated at either a linguistic or motoric level of production, phonetically well-formed sound-level serial-order errors are generally assumed to result from disruption of phonologic encoding (PE) processes. An influential model of PE (Dell, 1986; Dell, Burger & Svec, 1997) predicts that speaking rate should affect the relative proportion of these serial-order sound errors (anticipations, perseverations, exchanges). These predictions have been extended to, and have special relevance for persons with aphasia (PWA) because of the increased frequency with which speech errors occur and because their localization within the functional linguistic architecture may help in diagnosis and treatment. Supporting evidence regarding the effect of speaking rate on phonological encoding has been provided by studies using young normal language (NL) speakers and computer simulations. Limited data exist for older NL users and no group data exist for PWA. This study tested the phonologic encoding properties of Dell's model of speech production (Dell, 1986; Dell,et al., 1997), which predicts that increasing speaking rate affects the relative proportion of serial-order sound errors (i.e., anticipations, perseverations, and exchanges). The effects of speech rate on the error ratios of anticipation/exchange (AE), anticipation/perseveration (AP) and vocal reaction time (VRT) were examined in 16 normal healthy controls (NHC) and 16 PWA without concomitant motor speech disorders. The participants were recorded performing a phonologically challenging (tongue twister) speech production task at their typical and two faster speaking rates. A significant effect of increased rate was obtained for the AP but not the AE ratio. Significant effects of group and rate were obtained for VRT. Although the significant effect of rate for the AP ratio provided evidence that changes in speaking rate did affect PE, the results failed to support the model derived predictions regarding the direction of change for error type proportions. The current findings argued for an alternative concept of the role of activation and decay in influencing types of serial-order sound errors. Rather than a slow activation decay rate (Dell, 1986), the results of the current study were more compatible with an alternative explanation of rapid activation decay or slow build-up of residual activation.

Evaluation of TRMM Ground-Validation Radar-Rain Errors Using Rain Gauge Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jianxin; Wolff, David B.

2009-01-01

Ground-validation (GV) radar-rain products are often utilized for validation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spaced-based rain estimates, and hence, quantitative evaluation of the GV radar-rain product error characteristics is vital. This study uses quality-controlled gauge data to compare with TRMM GV radar rain rates in an effort to provide such error characteristics. The results show that significant differences of concurrent radar-gauge rain rates exist at various time scales ranging from 5 min to 1 day, despite lower overall long-term bias. However, the differences between the radar area-averaged rain rates and gauge point rain rates cannot be explained as due to radar error only. The error variance separation method is adapted to partition the variance of radar-gauge differences into the gauge area-point error variance and radar rain estimation error variance. The results provide relatively reliable quantitative uncertainty evaluation of TRMM GV radar rain estimates at various times scales, and are helpful to better understand the differences between measured radar and gauge rain rates. It is envisaged that this study will contribute to better utilization of GV radar rain products to validate versatile spaced-based rain estimates from TRMM, as well as the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement, and other satellites.

Validation of prostate-specific antigen laboratory values recorded in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries.

PubMed

Adamo, Margaret Peggy; Boten, Jessica A; Coyle, Linda M; Cronin, Kathleen A; Lam, Clara J K; Negoita, Serban; Penberthy, Lynne; Stevens, Jennifer L; Ward, Kevin C

2017-02-15

Researchers have used prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values collected by central cancer registries to evaluate tumors for potential aggressive clinical disease. An independent study collecting PSA values suggested a high error rate (18%) related to implied decimal points. To evaluate the error rate in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, a comprehensive review of PSA values recorded across all SEER registries was performed. Consolidated PSA values for eligible prostate cancer cases in SEER registries were reviewed and compared with text documentation from abstracted records. Four types of classification errors were identified: implied decimal point errors, abstraction or coding implementation errors, nonsignificant errors, and changes related to "unknown" values. A total of 50,277 prostate cancer cases diagnosed in 2012 were reviewed. Approximately 94.15% of cases did not have meaningful changes (85.85% correct, 5.58% with a nonsignificant change of <1 ng/mL, and 2.80% with no clinical change). Approximately 5.70% of cases had meaningful changes (1.93% due to implied decimal point errors, 1.54% due to abstract or coding errors, and 2.23% due to errors related to unknown categories). Only 419 of the original 50,277 cases (0.83%) resulted in a change in disease stage due to a corrected PSA value. The implied decimal error rate was only 1.93% of all cases in the current validation study, with a meaningful error rate of 5.81%. The reasons for the lower error rate in SEER are likely due to ongoing and rigorous quality control and visual editing processes by the central registries. The SEER program currently is reviewing and correcting PSA values back to 2004 and will re-release these data in the public use research file. Cancer 2017;123:697-703. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Errors Affect Hypothetical Intertemporal Food Choice in Women

PubMed Central

Sellitto, Manuela; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe

2014-01-01

Growing evidence suggests that the ability to control behavior is enhanced in contexts in which errors are more frequent. Here we investigated whether pairing desirable food with errors could decrease impulsive choice during hypothetical temporal decisions about food. To this end, healthy women performed a Stop-signal task in which one food cue predicted high-error rate, and another food cue predicted low-error rate. Afterwards, we measured participants’ intertemporal preferences during decisions between smaller-immediate and larger-delayed amounts of food. We expected reduced sensitivity to smaller-immediate amounts of food associated with high-error rate. Moreover, taking into account that deprivational states affect sensitivity for food, we controlled for participants’ hunger. Results showed that pairing food with high-error likelihood decreased temporal discounting. This effect was modulated by hunger, indicating that, the lower the hunger level, the more participants showed reduced impulsive preference for the food previously associated with a high number of errors as compared with the other food. These findings reveal that errors, which are motivationally salient events that recruit cognitive control and drive avoidance learning against error-prone behavior, are effective in reducing impulsive choice for edible outcomes. PMID:25244534

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbee, D; McCarthy, A; Galavis, P

Purpose: Errors found during initial physics plan checks frequently require replanning and reprinting, resulting decreased departmental efficiency. Additionally, errors may be missed during physics checks, resulting in potential treatment errors or interruption. This work presents a process control created using the Eclipse Scripting API (ESAPI) enabling dosimetrists and physicists to detect potential errors in the Eclipse treatment planning system prior to performing any plan approvals or printing. Methods: Potential failure modes for five categories were generated based on available ESAPI (v11) patient object properties: Images, Contours, Plans, Beams, and Dose. An Eclipse script plugin (PlanCheck) was written in C# tomore » check errors most frequently observed clinically in each of the categories. The PlanCheck algorithms were devised to check technical aspects of plans, such as deliverability (e.g. minimum EDW MUs), in addition to ensuring that policy and procedures relating to planning were being followed. The effect on clinical workflow efficiency was measured by tracking the plan document error rate and plan revision/retirement rates in the Aria database over monthly intervals. Results: The number of potential failure modes the PlanCheck script is currently capable of checking for in the following categories: Images (6), Contours (7), Plans (8), Beams (17), and Dose (4). Prior to implementation of the PlanCheck plugin, the observed error rates in errored plan documents and revised/retired plans in the Aria database was 20% and 22%, respectively. Error rates were seen to decrease gradually over time as adoption of the script improved. Conclusion: A process control created using the Eclipse scripting API enabled plan checks to occur within the planning system, resulting in reduction in error rates and improved efficiency. Future work includes: initiating full FMEA for planning workflow, extending categories to include additional checks outside of ESAPI via Aria database queries, and eventual automated plan checks.« less

Bit-error rate for free-space adaptive optics laser communications.

PubMed

Tyson, Robert K

2002-04-01

An analysis of adaptive optics compensation for atmospheric-turbulence-induced scintillation is presented with the figure of merit being the laser communications bit-error rate. The formulation covers weak, moderate, and strong turbulence; on-off keying; and amplitude-shift keying, over horizontal propagation paths or on a ground-to-space uplink or downlink. The theory shows that under some circumstances the bit-error rate can be improved by a few orders of magnitude with the addition of adaptive optics to compensate for the scintillation. Low-order compensation (less than 40 Zernike modes) appears to be feasible as well as beneficial for reducing the bit-error rate and increasing the throughput of the communication link.

Transcriptional fidelities of human mitochondrial POLRMT, yeast mitochondrial Rpo41, and phage T7 single-subunit RNA polymerases.

PubMed

Sultana, Shemaila; Solotchi, Mihai; Ramachandran, Aparna; Patel, Smita S

2017-11-03

Single-subunit RNA polymerases (RNAPs) are present in phage T7 and in mitochondria of all eukaryotes. This RNAP class plays important roles in biotechnology and cellular energy production, but we know little about its fidelity and error rates. Herein, we report the error rates of three single-subunit RNAPs measured from the catalytic efficiencies of correct and all possible incorrect nucleotides. The average error rates of T7 RNAP (2 × 10 -6 ), yeast mitochondrial Rpo41 (6 × 10 -6 ), and human mitochondrial POLRMT (RNA polymerase mitochondrial) (2 × 10 -5 ) indicate high accuracy/fidelity of RNA synthesis resembling those of replicative DNA polymerases. All three RNAPs exhibit a distinctly high propensity for GTP misincorporation opposite dT, predicting frequent A→G errors in RNA with rates of ∼10 -4 The A→C, G→A, A→U, C→U, G→U, U→C, and U→G errors mostly due to pyrimidine-purine mismatches were relatively frequent (10 -5 -10 -6 ), whereas C→G, U→A, G→C, and C→A errors from purine-purine and pyrimidine-pyrimidine mismatches were rare (10 -7 -10 -10 ). POLRMT also shows a high C→A error rate on 8-oxo-dG templates (∼10 -4 ). Strikingly, POLRMT shows a high mutagenic bypass rate, which is exacerbated by TEFM (transcription elongation factor mitochondrial). The lifetime of POLRMT on terminally mismatched elongation substrate is increased in the presence of TEFM, which allows POLRMT to efficiently bypass the error and continue with transcription. This investigation of nucleotide selectivity on normal and oxidatively damaged DNA by three single-subunit RNAPs provides the basic information to understand the error rates in mitochondria and, in the case of T7 RNAP, to assess the quality of in vitro transcribed RNAs. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince.

PubMed

Gunn, Lachlan J; Chapeau-Blondeau, François; McDonnell, Mark D; Davis, Bruce R; Allison, Andrew; Abbott, Derek

2016-03-01

Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The assumption of independence is often made in good faith; however, rarely is consideration given to whether a systemic failure has occurred. Taking this into account can cause certainty in a hypothesis to decrease as the evidence for it becomes apparently stronger. We perform a probabilistic Bayesian analysis of this effect with examples based on (i) archaeological evidence, (ii) weighing of legal evidence and (iii) cryptographic primality testing. In this paper, we investigate the effects of small error rates in a set of measurements or observations. We find that even with very low systemic failure rates, high confidence is surprisingly difficult to achieve; in particular, we find that certain analyses of cryptographically important numerical tests are highly optimistic, underestimating their false-negative rate by as much as a factor of 2 80 .

Effectiveness of symptom validity measures in identifying cognitive and behavioral symptom exaggeration in adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

PubMed

Marshall, Paul; Schroeder, Ryan; O'Brien, Jeffrey; Fischer, Rebecca; Ries, Adam; Blesi, Brita; Barker, Jessica

2010-10-01

This study examines the effectiveness of symptom validity measures to detect suspect effort in cognitive testing and invalid completion of ADHD behavior rating scales in 268 adults referred for ADHD assessment. Patients were diagnosed with ADHD based on cognitive testing, behavior rating scales, and clinical interview. Suspect effort was diagnosed by at least two of the following: failure on embedded and free-standing SVT measures, a score > 2 SD below the ADD population average on tests, failure on an ADHD behavior rating scale validity scale, or a major discrepancy between reported and observed ADHD behaviors. A total of 22% of patients engaged in symptom exaggeration. The Word Memory test immediate recall and consistency score (both 64%), TOVA omission errors (63%) and reaction time variability (54%), CAT-A infrequency scale (58%), and b Test (47%) had good sensitivity as well as at least 90% specificity. Clearly, such measures should be used to help avoid making false positive diagnoses of ADHD.

Poster error probability in the Mu-11 Sequential Ranging System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coyle, C. W.

1981-01-01

An expression is derived for the posterior error probability in the Mu-2 Sequential Ranging System. An algorithm is developed which closely bounds the exact answer and can be implemented in the machine software. A computer simulation is provided to illustrate the improved level of confidence in a ranging acquisition using this figure of merit as compared to that using only the prior probabilities. In a simulation of 20,000 acquisitions with an experimentally determined threshold setting, the algorithm detected 90% of the actual errors and made false indication of errors on 0.2% of the acquisitions.

47 CFR 1.1167 - Error claims related to regulatory fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Challenges to determinations or an insufficient regulatory fee payment or delinquent fees should be made in writing. A challenge to a determination that a party is delinquent in paying a standard regulatory fee... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Error claims related to regulatory fees. 1.1167...

Older, Not Younger, Children Learn More False Facts from Stories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fazio, Lisa K.; Marsh, Elizabeth J.

2008-01-01

Early school-aged children listened to stories that contained correct and incorrect facts. All ages answered more questions correctly after having heard the correct fact in the story. Only the older children, however, produced story errors on a later general knowledge test. Source errors did not drive the increased suggestibility in older…

17 CFR 232.103 - Liability for transmission errors or omissions in documents filed via EDGAR.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Liability for transmission errors or omissions in documents filed via EDGAR. 232.103 Section 232.103 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION REGULATION S-T-GENERAL RULES AND REGULATIONS FOR ELECTRONIC...

5 CFR 839.303 - Is my employer required to find employees with a retirement coverage error?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... THE FEDERAL ERRONEOUS RETIREMENT COVERAGE CORRECTIONS ACT Employer Responsibility to Notify Employees § 839.303 Is my employer required to find employees with a retirement coverage error? The FERCCA... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Is my employer required to find employees...

48 CFR 36.608 - Liability for Government costs resulting from design errors or deficiencies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Liability for Government costs resulting from design errors or deficiencies. 36.608 Section 36.608 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SPECIAL CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Architect-Engineer Service...

48 CFR 36.609-2 - Redesign responsibility for design errors or deficiencies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Redesign responsibility for design errors or deficiencies. 36.609-2 Section 36.609-2 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SPECIAL CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Architect-Engineer Services 36.609-2...

45 CFR 61.6 - Reporting errors, omissions, revisions or whether an action is on appeal.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Reporting errors, omissions, revisions or whether an action is on appeal. 61.6 Section 61.6 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION HEALTHCARE INTEGRITY AND PROTECTION DATA BANK FOR FINAL ADVERSE INFORMATION ON...

45 CFR 61.6 - Reporting errors, omissions, revisions or whether an action is on appeal.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Reporting errors, omissions, revisions or whether an action is on appeal. 61.6 Section 61.6 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION HEALTHCARE INTEGRITY AND PROTECTION DATA BANK FOR FINAL ADVERSE INFORMATION ON...

45 CFR 61.6 - Reporting errors, omissions, revisions or whether an action is on appeal.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reporting errors, omissions, revisions or whether an action is on appeal. 61.6 Section 61.6 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION HEALTHCARE INTEGRITY AND PROTECTION DATA BANK FOR FINAL ADVERSE INFORMATION ON...

Confabulation and epistemic authority.

PubMed

Robins, Sarah

2018-01-01

Mahr & Csibra (M&C) claim that episodic remembering's autonoetic character serves as an indicator of epistemic authority. This proposal is difficult to reconcile with the existence of confabulation errors - where participants fabricate memories of experiences that never happened to them. Making confabulation errors damages one's epistemic authority, but these false memories have an autonoetic character.

Classification Model for Forest Fire Hotspot Occurrences Prediction Using ANFIS Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijayanto, A. K.; Sani, O.; Kartika, N. D.; Herdiyeni, Y.

2017-01-01

This study proposed the application of data mining technique namely Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) on forest fires hotspot data to develop classification models for hotspots occurrence in Central Kalimantan. Hotspot is a point that is indicated as the location of fires. In this study, hotspot distribution is categorized as true alarm and false alarm. ANFIS is a soft computing method in which a given inputoutput data set is expressed in a fuzzy inference system (FIS). The FIS implements a nonlinear mapping from its input space to the output space. The method of this study classified hotspots as target objects by correlating spatial attributes data using three folds in ANFIS algorithm to obtain the best model. The best result obtained from the 3rd fold provided low error for training (error = 0.0093676) and also low error testing result (error = 0.0093676). Attribute of distance to road is the most determining factor that influences the probability of true and false alarm where the level of human activities in this attribute is higher. This classification model can be used to develop early warning system of forest fire.

Measurement error: Implications for diagnosis and discrepancy models of developmental dyslexia.

PubMed

Cotton, Sue M; Crewther, David P; Crewther, Sheila G

2005-08-01

The diagnosis of developmental dyslexia (DD) is reliant on a discrepancy between intellectual functioning and reading achievement. Discrepancy-based formulae have frequently been employed to establish the significance of the difference between 'intelligence' and 'actual' reading achievement. These formulae, however, often fail to take into consideration test reliability and the error associated with a single test score. This paper provides an illustration of the potential effects that test reliability and measurement error can have on the diagnosis of dyslexia, with particular reference to discrepancy models. The roles of reliability and standard error of measurement (SEM) in classic test theory are also briefly reviewed. This is followed by illustrations of how SEM and test reliability can aid with the interpretation of a simple discrepancy-based formula of DD. It is proposed that a lack of consideration of test theory in the use of discrepancy-based models of DD can lead to misdiagnosis (both false positives and false negatives). Further, misdiagnosis in research samples affects reproducibility and generalizability of findings. This in turn, may explain current inconsistencies in research on the perceptual, sensory, and motor correlates of dyslexia.

A comparison of medication administration errors from original medication packaging and multi-compartment compliance aids in care homes: A prospective observational study.

PubMed

Gilmartin-Thomas, Julia Fiona-Maree; Smith, Felicity; Wolfe, Rory; Jani, Yogini

2017-07-01

No published study has been specifically designed to compare medication administration errors between original medication packaging and multi-compartment compliance aids in care homes, using direct observation. Compare the effect of original medication packaging and multi-compartment compliance aids on medication administration accuracy. Prospective observational. Ten Greater London care homes. Nurses and carers administering medications. Between October 2014 and June 2015, a pharmacist researcher directly observed solid, orally administered medications in tablet or capsule form at ten purposively sampled care homes (five only used original medication packaging and five used both multi-compartment compliance aids and original medication packaging). The medication administration error rate was calculated as the number of observed doses administered (or omitted) in error according to medication administration records, compared to the opportunities for error (total number of observed doses plus omitted doses). Over 108.4h, 41 different staff (35 nurses, 6 carers) were observed to administer medications to 823 residents during 90 medication administration rounds. A total of 2452 medication doses were observed (1385 from original medication packaging, 1067 from multi-compartment compliance aids). One hundred and seventy eight medication administration errors were identified from 2493 opportunities for error (7.1% overall medication administration error rate). A greater medication administration error rate was seen for original medication packaging than multi-compartment compliance aids (9.3% and 3.1% respectively, risk ratio (RR)=3.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4 to 6.1, p<0.001). Similar differences existed when comparing medication administration error rates between original medication packaging (from original medication packaging-only care homes) and multi-compartment compliance aids (RR=2.3, 95%CI 1.1 to 4.9, p=0.03), and between original medication packaging and multi-compartment compliance aids within care homes that used a combination of both medication administration systems (RR=4.3, 95%CI 2.7 to 6.8, p<0.001). A significant difference in error rate was not observed between use of a single or combination medication administration system (p=0.44). The significant difference in, and high overall, medication administration error rate between original medication packaging and multi-compartment compliance aids supports the use of the latter in care homes, as well as local investigation of tablet and capsule impact on medication administration errors and staff training to prevent errors occurring. As a significant difference in error rate was not observed between use of a single or combination medication administration system, common practice of using both multi-compartment compliance aids (for most medications) and original packaging (for medications with stability issues) is supported. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The threshold vs LNT showdown: Dose rate findings exposed flaws in the LNT model part 2. How a mistake led BEIR I to adopt LNT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calabrese, Edward J., E-mail: edwardc@schoolph.uma

This paper reveals that nearly 25 years after the used Russell's dose-rate data to support the adoption of the linear-no-threshold (LNT) dose response model for genetic and cancer risk assessment, Russell acknowledged a significant under-reporting of the mutation rate of the historical control group. This error, which was unknown to BEIR I, had profound implications, leading it to incorrectly adopt the LNT model, which was a decision that profoundly changed the course of risk assessment for radiation and chemicals to the present. -- Highlights: • The BEAR I Genetics Panel made an error in denying dose rate for mutation. •more » The BEIR I Genetics Subcommittee attempted to correct this dose rate error. • The control group used for risk assessment by BEIR I is now known to be in error. • Correcting this error contradicts the LNT, supporting a threshold model.« less

Estimating False Positive Contamination in Crater Annotations from Citizen Science Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tar, P. D.; Bugiolacchi, R.; Thacker, N. A.; Gilmour, J. D.

2017-01-01

Web-based citizen science often involves the classification of image features by large numbers of minimally trained volunteers, such as the identification of lunar impact craters under the Moon Zoo project. Whilst such approaches facilitate the analysis of large image data sets, the inexperience of users and ambiguity in image content can lead to contamination from false positive identifications. We give an approach, using Linear Poisson Models and image template matching, that can quantify levels of false positive contamination in citizen science Moon Zoo crater annotations. Linear Poisson Models are a form of machine learning which supports predictive error modelling and goodness-of-fits, unlike most alternative machine learning methods. The proposed supervised learning system can reduce the variability in crater counts whilst providing predictive error assessments of estimated quantities of remaining true verses false annotations. In an area of research influenced by human subjectivity, the proposed method provides a level of objectivity through the utilisation of image evidence, guided by candidate crater identifications.

Developing new extension of GafChromic RTQA2 film to patient quality assurance field using a plan-based calibration method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jiayuan; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Jiazhou; Xie, Jiang; Chen, Junchao; Hu, Weigang

2015-10-01

GafChromic RTQA2 film is a type of radiochromic film designed for light field and radiation field alignment. The aim of this study is to extend the application of RTQA2 film to the measurement of patient specific quality assurance (QA) fields as a 2D relative dosimeter. Pre-irradiated and post-irradiated RTQA2 films were scanned in reflection mode using a flatbed scanner. A plan-based calibration (PBC) method utilized the mapping information of the calculated dose image and film grayscale image to create a dose versus pixel value calibration model. This model was used to calibrate the film grayscale image to the film relative dose image. The dose agreement between calculated and film dose images were analyzed by gamma analysis. To evaluate the feasibility of this method, eight clinically approved RapidArc cases (one abdomen cancer and seven head-and-neck cancer patients) were tested using this method. Moreover, three MLC gap errors and two MLC transmission errors were introduced to eight Rapidarc cases respectively to test the robustness of this method. The PBC method could overcome the film lot and post-exposure time variations of RTQA2 film to get a good 2D relative dose calibration result. The mean gamma passing rate of eight patients was 97.90%  ±  1.7%, which showed good dose consistency between calculated and film dose images. In the error test, the PBC method could over-calibrate the film, which means some dose error in the film would be falsely corrected to keep the dose in film consistent with the dose in the calculated dose image. This would then lead to a false negative result in the gamma analysis. In these cases, the derivative curve of the dose calibration curve would be non-monotonic which would expose the dose abnormality. By using the PBC method, we extended the application of more economical RTQA2 film to patient specific QA. The robustness of the PBC method has been improved by analyzing the monotonicity of the derivative of the calibration curve.

Impact of automated dispensing cabinets on medication selection and preparation error rates in an emergency department: a prospective and direct observational before-and-after study.

PubMed

Fanning, Laura; Jones, Nick; Manias, Elizabeth

2016-04-01

The implementation of automated dispensing cabinets (ADCs) in healthcare facilities appears to be increasing, in particular within Australian hospital emergency departments (EDs). While the investment in ADCs is on the increase, no studies have specifically investigated the impacts of ADCs on medication selection and preparation error rates in EDs. Our aim was to assess the impact of ADCs on medication selection and preparation error rates in an ED of a tertiary teaching hospital. Pre intervention and post intervention study involving direct observations of nurses completing medication selection and preparation activities before and after the implementation of ADCs in the original and new emergency departments within a 377-bed tertiary teaching hospital in Australia. Medication selection and preparation error rates were calculated and compared between these two periods. Secondary end points included the impact on medication error type and severity. A total of 2087 medication selection and preparations were observed among 808 patients pre and post intervention. Implementation of ADCs in the new ED resulted in a 64.7% (1.96% versus 0.69%, respectively, P = 0.017) reduction in medication selection and preparation errors. All medication error types were reduced in the post intervention study period. There was an insignificant impact on medication error severity as all errors detected were categorised as minor. The implementation of ADCs could reduce medication selection and preparation errors and improve medication safety in an ED setting. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Teamwork and clinical error reporting among nurses in Korean hospitals.

PubMed

Hwang, Jee-In; Ahn, Jeonghoon

2015-03-01

To examine levels of teamwork and its relationships with clinical error reporting among Korean hospital nurses. The study employed a cross-sectional survey design. We distributed a questionnaire to 674 nurses in two teaching hospitals in Korea. The questionnaire included items on teamwork and the reporting of clinical errors. We measured teamwork using the Teamwork Perceptions Questionnaire, which has five subscales including team structure, leadership, situation monitoring, mutual support, and communication. Using logistic regression analysis, we determined the relationships between teamwork and error reporting. The response rate was 85.5%. The mean score of teamwork was 3.5 out of 5. At the subscale level, mutual support was rated highest, while leadership was rated lowest. Of the participating nurses, 522 responded that they had experienced at least one clinical error in the last 6 months. Among those, only 53.0% responded that they always or usually reported clinical errors to their managers and/or the patient safety department. Teamwork was significantly associated with better error reporting. Specifically, nurses with a higher team communication score were more likely to report clinical errors to their managers and the patient safety department (odds ratio = 1.82, 95% confidence intervals [1.05, 3.14]). Teamwork was rated as moderate and was positively associated with nurses' error reporting performance. Hospital executives and nurse managers should make substantial efforts to enhance teamwork, which will contribute to encouraging the reporting of errors and improving patient safety. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Entanglement-enhanced Neyman-Pearson target detection using quantum illumination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) provides entanglement-based target detection---in an entanglement-breaking environment---whose performance is significantly better than that of optimum classical-illumination target detection. QI's performance advantage was established in a Bayesian setting with the target presumed equally likely to be absent or present and error probability employed as the performance metric. Radar theory, however, eschews that Bayesian approach, preferring the Neyman-Pearson performance criterion to avoid the difficulties of accurately assigning prior probabilities to target absence and presence and appropriate costs to false-alarm and miss errors. We have recently reported an architecture---based on sum-frequency generation (SFG) and feedforward (FF) processing---for minimum error-probability QI target detection with arbitrary prior probabilities for target absence and presence. In this paper, we use our results for FF-SFG reception to determine the receiver operating characteristic---detection probability versus false-alarm probability---for optimum QI target detection under the Neyman-Pearson criterion.

Determination of Type I Error Rates and Power of Answer Copying Indices under Various Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yormaz, Seha; Sünbül, Önder

2017-01-01

This study aims to determine the Type I error rates and power of S[subscript 1] , S[subscript 2] indices and kappa statistic at detecting copying on multiple-choice tests under various conditions. It also aims to determine how copying groups are created in order to calculate how kappa statistics affect Type I error rates and power. In this study,…

Can a two-hour lecture by a pharmacist improve the quality of prescriptions in a pediatric hospital? A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Vairy, Stephanie; Corny, Jennifer; Jamoulle, Olivier; Levy, Arielle; Lebel, Denis; Carceller, Ana

2017-12-01

A high rate of prescription errors exists in pediatric teaching hospitals, especially during initial training. To determine the effectiveness of a two-hour lecture by a pharmacist on rates of prescription errors and quality of prescriptions. A two-hour lecture led by a pharmacist was provided to 11 junior pediatric residents (PGY-1) as part of a one-month immersion program. A control group included 15 residents without the intervention. We reviewed charts to analyze the first 50 prescriptions of each resident. Data were collected from 1300 prescriptions involving 451 patients, 550 in the intervention group and 750 in the control group. The rate of prescription errors in the intervention group was 9.6% compared to 11.3% in the control group (p=0.32), affecting 106 patients. Statistically significant differences between both groups were prescriptions with unwritten doses (p=0.01) and errors involving overdosing (p=0.04). We identified many errors as well as issues surrounding quality of prescriptions. We found a 10.6% prescription error rate. This two-hour lecture seems insufficient to reduce prescription errors among junior pediatric residents. This study highlights the most frequent types of errors and prescription quality issues that should be targeted by future educational interventions.

Zero tolerance prescribing: a strategy to reduce prescribing errors on the paediatric intensive care unit.

PubMed

Booth, Rachelle; Sturgess, Emma; Taberner-Stokes, Alison; Peters, Mark

2012-11-01

To establish the baseline prescribing error rate in a tertiary paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and to determine the impact of a zero tolerance prescribing (ZTP) policy incorporating a dedicated prescribing area and daily feedback of prescribing errors. A prospective, non-blinded, observational study was undertaken in a 12-bed tertiary PICU over a period of 134 weeks. Baseline prescribing error data were collected on weekdays for all patients for a period of 32 weeks, following which the ZTP policy was introduced. Daily error feedback was introduced after a further 12 months. Errors were sub-classified as 'clinical', 'non-clinical' and 'infusion prescription' errors and the effects of interventions considered separately. The baseline combined prescribing error rate was 892 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 765-1,019) errors per 1,000 PICU occupied bed days (OBDs), comprising 25.6 % clinical, 44 % non-clinical and 30.4 % infusion prescription errors. The combined interventions of ZTP plus daily error feedback were associated with a reduction in the combined prescribing error rate to 447 (95 % CI 389-504) errors per 1,000 OBDs (p < 0.0001), an absolute risk reduction of 44.5 % (95 % CI 40.8-48.0 %). Introduction of the ZTP policy was associated with a significant decrease in clinical and infusion prescription errors, while the introduction of daily error feedback was associated with a significant reduction in non-clinical prescribing errors. The combined interventions of ZTP and daily error feedback were associated with a significant reduction in prescribing errors in the PICU, in line with Department of Health requirements of a 40 % reduction within 5 years.

Frequency and analysis of non-clinical errors made in radiology reports using the National Integrated Medical Imaging System voice recognition dictation software.

PubMed

Motyer, R E; Liddy, S; Torreggiani, W C; Buckley, O

2016-11-01

Voice recognition (VR) dictation of radiology reports has become the mainstay of reporting in many institutions worldwide. Despite benefit, such software is not without limitations, and transcription errors have been widely reported. Evaluate the frequency and nature of non-clinical transcription error using VR dictation software. Retrospective audit of 378 finalised radiology reports. Errors were counted and categorised by significance, error type and sub-type. Data regarding imaging modality, report length and dictation time was collected. 67 (17.72 %) reports contained ≥1 errors, with 7 (1.85 %) containing 'significant' and 9 (2.38 %) containing 'very significant' errors. A total of 90 errors were identified from the 378 reports analysed, with 74 (82.22 %) classified as 'insignificant', 7 (7.78 %) as 'significant', 9 (10 %) as 'very significant'. 68 (75.56 %) errors were 'spelling and grammar', 20 (22.22 %) 'missense' and 2 (2.22 %) 'nonsense'. 'Punctuation' error was most common sub-type, accounting for 27 errors (30 %). Complex imaging modalities had higher error rates per report and sentence. Computed tomography contained 0.040 errors per sentence compared to plain film with 0.030. Longer reports had a higher error rate, with reports >25 sentences containing an average of 1.23 errors per report compared to 0-5 sentences containing 0.09. These findings highlight the limitations of VR dictation software. While most error was deemed insignificant, there were occurrences of error with potential to alter report interpretation and patient management. Longer reports and reports on more complex imaging had higher error rates and this should be taken into account by the reporting radiologist.

Empirical extensions of the lasso penalty to reduce the false discovery rate in high-dimensional Cox regression models.

PubMed

Ternès, Nils; Rotolo, Federico; Michiels, Stefan

2016-07-10

Correct selection of prognostic biomarkers among multiple candidates is becoming increasingly challenging as the dimensionality of biological data becomes higher. Therefore, minimizing the false discovery rate (FDR) is of primary importance, while a low false negative rate (FNR) is a complementary measure. The lasso is a popular selection method in Cox regression, but its results depend heavily on the penalty parameter λ. Usually, λ is chosen using maximum cross-validated log-likelihood (max-cvl). However, this method has often a very high FDR. We review methods for a more conservative choice of λ. We propose an empirical extension of the cvl by adding a penalization term, which trades off between the goodness-of-fit and the parsimony of the model, leading to the selection of fewer biomarkers and, as we show, to the reduction of the FDR without large increase in FNR. We conducted a simulation study considering null and moderately sparse alternative scenarios and compared our approach with the standard lasso and 10 other competitors: Akaike information criterion (AIC), corrected AIC, Bayesian information criterion (BIC), extended BIC, Hannan and Quinn information criterion (HQIC), risk information criterion (RIC), one-standard-error rule, adaptive lasso, stability selection, and percentile lasso. Our extension achieved the best compromise across all the scenarios between a reduction of the FDR and a limited raise of the FNR, followed by the AIC, the RIC, and the adaptive lasso, which performed well in some settings. We illustrate the methods using gene expression data of 523 breast cancer patients. In conclusion, we propose to apply our extension to the lasso whenever a stringent FDR with a limited FNR is targeted. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Addressing Angular Single-Event Effects in the Estimation of On-Orbit Error Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, David S.; Swift, Gary M.; Wirthlin, Michael J.

2015-12-01

Our study describes complications introduced by angular direct ionization events on space error rate predictions. In particular, prevalence of multiple-cell upsets and a breakdown in the application of effective linear energy transfer in modern-scale devices can skew error rates approximated from currently available estimation models. Moreover, this paper highlights the importance of angular testing and proposes a methodology to extend existing error estimation tools to properly consider angular strikes in modern-scale devices. Finally, these techniques are illustrated with test data provided from a modern 28 nm SRAM-based device.

Reducing the Familiarity of Conjunction Lures with Pictures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, Marianne E.

2013-01-01

Four experiments were conducted to test whether conjunction errors were reduced after pictorial encoding and whether the semantic overlap between study and conjunction items would impact error rates. Across 4 experiments, compound words studied with a single-picture had lower conjunction error rates during a recognition test than those words…

45 CFR 98.100 - Error Rate Report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND... rates, which is defined as the percentage of cases with an error (expressed as the total number of cases with an error compared to the total number of cases); the percentage of cases with an improper payment...

Certification of ICI 1012 optical data storage tape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, J. M.

1993-01-01

ICI has developed a unique and novel method of certifying a Terabyte optical tape. The tape quality is guaranteed as a statistical upper limit on the probability of uncorrectable errors. This is called the Corrected Byte Error Rate or CBER. We developed this probabilistic method because of two reasons why error rate cannot be measured directly. Firstly, written data is indelible, so one cannot employ write/read tests such as used for magnetic tape. Secondly, the anticipated error rates need impractically large samples to measure accurately. For example, a rate of 1E-12 implies only one byte in error per tape. The archivability of ICI 1012 Data Storage Tape in general is well characterized and understood. Nevertheless, customers expect performance guarantees to be supported by test results on individual tapes. In particular, they need assurance that data is retrievable after decades in archive. This paper describes the mathematical basis, measurement apparatus and applicability of the certification method.

The dependence of crowding on flanker complexity and target-flanker similarity

PubMed Central

Bernard, Jean-Baptiste; Chung, Susana T.L.

2013-01-01

We examined the effects of the spatial complexity of flankers and target-flanker similarity on the performance of identifying crowded letters. On each trial, observers identified the middle character of random strings of three characters (“trigrams”) briefly presented at 10° below fixation. We tested the 26 lowercase letters of the Times-Roman and Courier fonts, a set of 79 characters (letters and non-letters) of the Times-Roman font, and the uppercase letters of two highly complex ornamental fonts, Edwardian and Aristocrat. Spatial complexity of characters was quantified by the length of the morphological skeleton of each character, and target-flanker similarity was defined based on a psychometric similarity matrix. Our results showed that (1) letter identification error rate increases with flanker complexity up to a certain value, beyond which error rate becomes independent of flanker complexity; (2) the increase of error rate is slower for high-complexity target letters; (3) error rate increases with target-flanker similarity; and (4) mislocation error rate increases with target-flanker similarity. These findings, combined with the current understanding of the faulty feature integration account of crowding, provide some constraints of how the feature integration process could cause perceptual errors. PMID:21730225