Impact of revised and potential future albedo estimates on CCSM3 simulations of growing-season surface temperature fields for North America

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; David Y. Hollinger; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bain; Shiyuan. Zhong

2010-01-01

Recently published albedo research has resulted in improved growing-season albedo estimates for forest and grassland vegetation. The impact of these improved estimates on the ability of climate models to simulate growing-season surface temperature patterns is unknown. We have developed a set of current-climate surface temperature scenarios for North America using the...

Estimating the National Carbon Abatement Potential of City Policies: A Data-Driven Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Heeter, Jenny; Keyser, David

Cities are increasingly taking actions such as building code enforcement, urban planning, and public transit expansion to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in their communities and municipal operations. However, many cities lack the quantitative information needed to estimate policy impacts and prioritize city actions in terms of carbon abatement potential and cost effectiveness. This report fills this research gap by providing methodologies to assess the carbon abatement potential of a variety of city actions. The methodologies are applied to an energy use data set of 23,458 cities compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy City Energy Profile tool. The analysismore » develops a national estimate of the carbon abatement potential of realizable city actions in six specific policy areas encompassing the most commonly implemented city actions. The results of this analysis suggest that, in aggregate, cities could reduce nationwide carbon emissions by about 210 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMT CO2) per year in a 'moderate abatement scenario' by 2035 and 480 MMT CO2/year in a 'high abatement scenario' by 2035 through these common actions typically within a city's control in the six policy areas. The aggregate carbon abatement potential of these specific areas equates to a reduction of 3%-7% relative to 2013 U.S. emissions. At the city level, the results suggest the average city could reduce carbon emissions by 7% (moderate) to 19% (high) relative to current city-level emissions. In the context of U.S. climate commitments under the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21), the estimated national abatement potential of the city actions analyzed in this report equates to about 15%-35% of the remaining carbon abatement necessary to achieve the U.S. COP21 target. Additional city actions outside the scope of this report, such as community choice aggregation (city-level purchasing of renewable energy), zero energy districts, and multi-level governance strategies, could significantly augment the carbon abatement contributions of city actions toward national climate targets. The results suggest that cities may play a pivotal role in progress toward national climate targets. In addition to providing carbon and emissions estimates, this report estimates the national net economic impacts of policies for which cost and benefit data are available. Impact metrics include employment, worker earnings, and gross domestic product (GDP). For the policy areas studied, the economic analysis demonstrates that city carbon abatement may be achieved with only minimal and generally slightly positive economic impacts. Employment impacts range from 0.04% to 0.13% of U.S, employment during implementation and zero to 0.1% thereafter. GDP estimates show net impacts of 0.02% to 0.07% of GDP during implementation and impacts from -0.02% to zero thereafter. This report quantitatively demonstrates the material impact of a limited set of local policy areas on national carbon abatement potential. The magnitude of estimated carbon reductions from city policies, 3%-7% of national emissions by 2035, suggests an important role for city-led actions in reaching U.S. climate goals. Multi-level governance at the city, state, and national levels could augment the carbon abatement potential of city actions and make cities a key component of long-term U.S. climate strategies.« less

A Geography-Specific Approach to Estimating the Distributional Impact of Highway Tolls: An Application to the Puget Sound Region of Washington State

PubMed Central

Plotnick, Robert D.; Romich, Jennifer; Thacker, Jennifer; Dunbar, Matthew

2011-01-01

This study contributes to the debate about tolls’ equity impacts by examining the potential economic costs of tolling for low-income and non-low-income households. Using data from the Puget Sound metropolitan region in Washington State and GIS methods to map driving routes from home to work, we examine car ownership and transportation patterns among low-income and non-low-income households. We follow standard practice of estimating tolls’ potential impact only on households with workers who would drive on tolled and non-tolled facilities. We then redo the analysis including broader groups of households. We find that the degree of regressivity is quite sensitive to the set of households included in the analysis. The results suggest that distributional analyses of tolls should estimate impacts on all households in the relevant region in addition to impacts on just users of roads that are currently tolled or likely to be tolled. PMID:21818172

Inventory Data Package for Hanford Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kincaid, Charles T.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

2006-06-01

This document presents the basis for a compilation of inventory for radioactive contaminants of interest by year for all potentially impactive waste sites on the Hanford Site for which inventory data exist in records or could be reasonably estimated. This document also includes discussions of the historical, current, and reasonably foreseeable (1944 to 2070) future radioactive waste and waste sites; the inventories of radionuclides that may have a potential for environmental impacts; a description of the method(s) for estimating inventories where records are inadequate; a description of the screening method(s) used to select those sites and contaminants that might makemore » a substantial contribution to impacts; a listing of the remedial actions and their completion dates for waste sites; and tables showing the best estimate inventories available for Hanford assessments.« less

Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frei, Allan; Nolin, Anne W.; Serreze, Mark C.; Armstrong, Richard L.; McGinnis, David L.; Robinson, David A.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-11-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-01-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Considerations in evaluating potential socioeconomic impacts of offshore platform decommissioning in California.

PubMed

Kruse, Sarah A; Bernstein, Brock; Scholz, Astrid J

2015-10-01

The 27 oil and gas platforms offshore southern California will eventually reach the end of their useful lifetimes (estimated between 2015 and 2030) and will be decommissioned. Current state and federal laws and regulations allow for alternative uses in lieu of the complete removal required in existing leases. Any decommissioning pathway will create a complex mix of costs, benefits, opportunities, and constraints for multiple user groups. To assist the California Natural Resources Agency in understanding these issues, we evaluated the potential socioeconomic impacts of the 2 most likely options: complete removal and partial removal of the structure to 85 feet below the waterline with the remaining structure left in place as an artificial reef-generally defined as a manmade structure with some properties that mimic a natural reef. We estimated impacts on commercial fishing, commercial shipping, recreational fishing, nonconsumptive boating, and nonconsumptive SCUBA diving. Available data supported quantitative estimates for some impacts, semiquantitative estimates for others, and only qualitative approximations of the direction of impact for still others. Even qualitative estimates of the direction of impacts and of user groups' likely preferred options have been useful to the public and decision makers and provided valuable input to the project's integrative decision model. Uncertainty surrounds even qualitative estimates of the likely direction of impact where interactions between multiple impacts could occur or where user groups include subsets that would experience the same option differently. In addition, we were unable to quantify effects on ecosystem value and on the larger regional ecosystem, because of data gaps on the population sizes and dynamics of key species and the uncertainty surrounding the contribution of platforms to available hard substrate and related natural populations offshore southern California. © 2015 SETAC.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

EPA Science Inventory

BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of a...

An ecological framework for informing permitting decisions on scientific activities in protected areas

PubMed Central

Saarman, Emily T.; Owens, Brian; Murray, Steven N.; Weisberg, Stephen B.; Field, John C.; Nielsen, Karina J.

2018-01-01

There are numerous reasons to conduct scientific research within protected areas, but research activities may also negatively impact organisms and habitats, and thus conflict with a protected area’s conservation goals. We developed a quantitative ecological decision-support framework that estimates these potential impacts so managers can weigh costs and benefits of proposed research projects and make informed permitting decisions. The framework generates quantitative estimates of the ecological impacts of the project and the cumulative impacts of the proposed project and all other projects in the protected area, and then compares the estimated cumulative impacts of all projects with policy-based acceptable impact thresholds. We use a series of simplified equations (models) to assess the impacts of proposed research to: a) the population of any targeted species, b) the major ecological assemblages that make up the community, and c) the physical habitat that supports protected area biota. These models consider both targeted and incidental impacts to the ecosystem and include consideration of the vulnerability of targeted species, assemblages, and habitats, based on their recovery time and ecological role. We parameterized the models for a wide variety of potential research activities that regularly occur in the study area using a combination of literature review and expert judgment with a precautionary approach to uncertainty. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to examine the relationships between model input parameters and estimated impacts to understand the dominant drivers of the ecological impact estimates. Although the decision-support framework was designed for and adopted by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife for permitting scientific studies in the state-wide network of marine protected areas (MPAs), the framework can readily be adapted for terrestrial and freshwater protected areas. PMID:29920527

Methods of Economic Valuation of The Health Risks Associated with Nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shalhevet, S.; Haruvy, N.

The worldwide market for nanomaterials is growing rapidly, but relatively little is still known about the potential risks associated with these materials. The potential health hazards associated with exposure to nanomaterials may lead in the future to increased health costs as well as increased economic costs to the companies involved, as has happened in the past in the case of asbestos. Therefore, it is important to make an initial estimate of the potential costs associated with these health hazards, and to prepare ahead with appropriate health insurance for individuals and financial insurance for companies. While several studies have examined the environmental and health hazards of different nanomaterials by performing life cycle impact assessments, so far these studies have concentrated on the cost of production, and did not estimate the economic impact of the health hazards. This paper discusses methods of evaluating the economic impact of potential health hazards on the public. The proposed method is based on using life cycle impact assessment studies of nanomaterials to estimate the DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) associated with the increased probability of these health hazards. The economic valuation of DALY's can be carried out based on the income lost and the costs of medical treatment. The total expected increase in cost depends on the increase in the statistical probability of each disease.

Brazilian Amazon Roads and Parks: Temporal & Spatial Deforestation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfaff, A.; Robalino, J.

2011-12-01

Heterogeneous Forest Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: spatial frontier dynamics & impacts of Brazilian Amazon road changes Prior research on road impacts has almost completely ignored heterogeneity of impacts and as a result both empirically understated potential impact and missed policy potential. We note von Thunen's model suggests not only heterogeneity with distance from market but also specifically road impacts rising then falling with distance ('non-monoThunicity') Endogenous development and partial adjustment dynamics support this for the short run. Causal effects result from studying Brazilian Amazon deforestation (1976-87, 2000-04) using matching for short-run responses to lagged new roads changes (1968-75, 1985-00). We show the critical role of prior development, proxied by 1968 and 1985 road distances, for which exact matching addresses development trends and transforms impact estimates. Splitting the sample on this measure finds confirmation of the nonmonotonic predictions: new road impacts are relatively low if a prior road was close, such that prior transport access and endogenous development dynamics compete with the new road for influence, but also if a prior road was far, since first-decade adjustment in pristine areas is limited; yet in between these bounds, investments immediately raise deforestation significantly. This pattern helps to explain lower estimates within research on a single average impact. It suggests potential for REDD if a country chooses to shift its spatial transport networks. Protected Areas & Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: modeling and testing the impacts of varied PA strategies We model and then estimate the impacts of multiple types of protected areas upon 2000 - 2004 deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Our modeling starts with federal versus state objectives and predicts differences in both choice and implementation of each PA strategy that we examine. Our empirical examination brings not only breakdowns sufficient to test the model's implications but also, critically, explicit controls for the influences of the characteristics of protected lands. Controlling for how PAs differ from unprotected lands cuts impact estimates roughly in half, implying that accounting for and planning around site characteristics should be a part of REDD. For instance, we highlight differences among the improved impacts estimates across PA subsets: Federal vs. State vs. Indigenous; 1980s vs. 1990s; and Integral Protection vs. Sustainable Use. Without correcting for the differences in land characteristics, each of the subsets we examine is estimated to cause significant reduction in deforestation. Corrections find Federal and Indigenous prevented more clearing than did State, while Sustainable Use areas blocked more deforestation than Integral Protection. The reason for these unequal shifts in estimates is that the different PA subsets were allocated to different types of locations. That protection's impact is not uniform is important for REDD and those designing institutions should note what local planners may favor.

Potential impact of air quality restrictions on logging residue burning

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer; James N. Westwood

1970-01-01

The number of potential burning days and the potential burn acreage under smoke control restrictions were estimated for hypothetical forest areas on both sides of a pollution prone area, the Willamette Valley in western Oregon. On the basis of a sample of 2 dry years, the greatest impact on burning operations applied to low elevation forests west of the Valley. The...

Shared Solar. Current Landscape, Market Potential, and the Impact of Federal Securities Regulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feldman, David; Brockway, Anna M.; Ulrich, Elaine

2015-04-07

This report provides a high-level overview of the current U.S. shared solar landscape, the impact that a given shared solar program’s structure has on requiring federal securities oversight, as well as an estimate of market potential for U.S. shared solar deployment.

Shared Solar. Current Landscape, Market Potential, and the Impact of Federal Securities Regulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feldman, David; Brockway, Anna M.; Ulrich, Elaine

2015-04-01

This report provides a high-level overview of the current U.S. shared solar landscape and the impact that a given shared solar program’s structure has on requiring federal securities oversight, as well as an estimate of market potential for U.S. shared solar deployment.

Static metrics of impact for a dynamic problem: The need for smarter tools to guide suicide prevention planning and investment.

PubMed

Page, Andrew; Atkinson, Jo-An; Heffernan, Mark; McDonnell, Geoff; Prodan, Ante; Osgood, Nathaniel; Hickie, Ian

2018-01-01

This study investigates two approaches to estimate the potential impact of a population-level intervention on Australian suicide, to highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytic approaches for informing evidence-based strategies for suicide prevention. The potential impact of a psychosocial therapy intervention on the incidence of suicide in Australia over the next 10 years was used as a case study to compare the potential impact on suicides averted using: (1) a traditional epidemiological measure of population attributable risk and (2) a dynamic measure of population impact based on a systems science model of suicide that incorporates changes over time. Based on the population preventive fraction, findings suggest that the psychosocial therapy intervention if implemented among all eligible individuals in the Australian population would prevent 5.4% of suicides (or 1936 suicides) over the next 10 years. In comparison, estimates from the dynamic simulation model which accounts for changes in the effect size of the intervention over time, the time taken for the intervention to have an impact in the population, and likely barriers to the uptake and availability of services suggest that the intervention would avert a lower proportion of suicides (between 0.4% and 0.5%) over the same follow-up period. Traditional epidemiological measures used to estimate population health burden have several limitations that are often understated and can lead to unrealistic expectations of the potential impact of evidence-based interventions in real-world settings. This study highlights these limitations and proposes an alternative analytic approach to guide policy and practice decisions to achieve reductions in Australian suicide.

Years of Life and Productivity Loss from Potentially Avoidable Colorectal Cancer Deaths in U.S. Counties with Lower Educational Attainment (2008–2012)

PubMed Central

Weir, Hannah K.; Li, Chunyu; Henley, S. Jane; Joseph, Djenaba

2018-01-01

Background Educational attainment (EA) is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. Colorectal cancer screening can save lives if precancerous polyps or early cancers are found and successfully treated. This study aims to estimate the potential productivity loss (PPL) and associated avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths among screen-eligible adults residing in lower EA counties in the United States. Methods Mortality and population data were used to examine colorectal cancer deaths (2008–2012) among adults aged 50 to 74 years in lower EA counties, and to estimate the expected number of deaths using the mortality experience from high EA counties. Excess deaths (observed–expected) were used to estimate potential years life lost, and the human capital method was used to estimate PPL in 2012 U.S. dollars. Results County-level colorectal cancer death rates were inversely associated with county-level EA. Of the 100,857 colorectal cancer deaths in lower EA counties, we estimated that more than 21,000 (1 in 5) was potentially avoidable and resulted in nearly $2 billion annual productivity loss. Conclusions County-level EA disparities contribute to a large number of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths. Increased prevention and improved screening potentially could decrease deaths and help reduce the associated economic burden in lower EA communities. Increased screening could further reduce deaths in all EA groups. Impact These results estimate the large economic impact of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths in economically disadvantaged communities, as measured by lower EA. PMID:28003180

Potential Impact of Conjugate Vaccine on the Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease among Children in Scotland

PubMed Central

Clarke, Stuart C.; Jefferies, Johanna M.; Smith, Andrew J.; McMenamin, Jim; Mitchell, Timothy J.; Edwards, Giles F. S.

2006-01-01

We sought to determine the potential impact of seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children in Scotland. Invasive pneumococci from blood and cerebrospinal fluid, isolated between 2000 and 2004 from all children aged less than 5 years in Scotland, were characterized by serotyping. Using reported efficacy data of the seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) along with likely coverage rates, we made an estimation of the potential impact on the incidence of IPD among children in Scotland. A total of 217 pneumococci were characterized into 22 different serogroups/types, the most common, in rank order, being 14, 19F, 6B, 18C, 23F, 9V, 4, 1, 19A, and 6A. Estimated serotype coverage for PCV7 was 76.5% in those aged less than 5 years of age but increased to 88.9% for those aged 1 year. By using serotype coverage and estimates of vaccine efficacy and uptake, the potential impact of the vaccine for those greater than 2 months of age, but less than 5 years, was estimated as 67.3%, leading to an average of 29 preventable cases per year. The introduction of PCV7 into the childhood immunization schedule would reduce the burden of pneumococcal disease in children, and the incidence would be particularly reduced in those children aged 1 year. Additional benefits may be gained in adults through herd protection. Continued surveillance of IPD is required before, during, and after the introduction of PCV7. PMID:16597842

Potential impact of a nonavalent HPV vaccine on the occurrence of HPV-related diseases in France.

PubMed

Riethmuller, Didier; Jacquard, Anne-Carole; Lacau St Guily, Jean; Aubin, François; Carcopino, Xavier; Pradat, Pierre; Dahlab, André; Prétet, Jean-Luc

2015-05-02

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection is known to be associated with a number of conditions including cervical, vaginal, vulvar, penile, anal neoplasias and cancers, oropharynx cancers and genitals warts (GW). Two prophylactic vaccines are currently available: a bivalent vaccine designed to prevent HPV type 16 and 18 infection and a quadrivalent vaccine targeting HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18. In France, HPV vaccination is recommended in 11-14 year-old girls with a catch-up for girls aged 15-19. The objective of this study was to assess the potential impact of an HPV 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 nonavalent vaccine on anogenital and oropharyngeal HPV-related diseases in France. HPV genotype distributions from 6 multicentric retrospective studies (EDiTH I to VI) were analyzed including 516 cases of invasive cervical cancers (ICC), 493 high-grade cervical neoplasias (CIN2/3), 397 low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), 423 GW, 366 anal cancer and 314 oropharyngeal carcinomas. Low and high estimates of HPV vaccine impact were calculated as follows: low estimate: prevalence of HPV 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 genotypes alone or in association but excluding presence of another HPV type; high estimate: prevalence of HPV 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 genotypes alone or in association, possibly in presence of another HPV type. Estimates of potential impact varied from 85% (low estimate) to 92% (high estimate) for ICC, 77% to 90% for CIN2/3, 26% to 56% for LSIL, 69% to 90% for GW, 81% to 93% for anal cancer, and 41% to 44% for oropharyngeal carcinomas. Compared to the quadrivalent vaccine, the proportion of additional cases potentially prevented by the nonavalent vaccine was 9.9%-15.3% for ICC, 24.7%-33.3% for CIN2/3, 12.3%-22.7% for LSIL, 2.1%-5.4% for GW, 8.5%-10.4% for anal cancer, and 0.0%-1.6% for oropharyngeal carcinoma. The nonavalent HPV vaccine showed significant increased potential impact compared to the HPV 6/11/16/18 quadrivalent vaccine for ICC, CIN2/3 and LSIL. Considering a 100% vaccine efficacy and high vaccine coverage, about 90% of ICC, CIN2/3, GW or anal cancer cases could be prevented by a nonavalent HPV vaccine in France.

Modeling potential evapotranspiration of two forested watersheds in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

L.Y. Rao; G. Sun; C.R. Ford; J.M. Vose

2011-01-01

Global climate change has direct impacts on watershed hydrology through altering evapotranspiration (ET) processes at multiple scales. There are many methods to estimate forest ET with models, but the most practical and the most popular one is the potential ET (PET) based method. However, the choice of PET methods for AET estimation remains challenging. This study...

Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species

PubMed Central

Copeland, Holly E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Naugle, David E.; Pocewicz, Amy; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

2009-01-01

Background Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence. Methodology/Principal Findings We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7–19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area. Conclusions/Significance Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation. PMID:19826472

Potential public health impact of Age-Related Eye Disease Study results: AREDS report no. 11.

PubMed

Bressler, Neil M; Bressler, Susan B; Congdon, Nathan G; Ferris, Frederick L; Friedman, David S; Klein, Ronald; Lindblad, Anne S; Milton, Roy C; Seddon, Johanna M

2003-11-01

To estimate the potential public health impact of the findings of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) on reducing the number of persons developing advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) during the next 5 years in the United States. The AREDS clinical trial provides estimates of AMD progression rates and of reduction in risk of developing advanced AMD when a high-dose nutritional supplement of antioxidants and zinc is used. These results are applied to estimates of the US population at risk, to estimate the number of people who would potentially avoid advanced AMD during 5 years if those at risk were to take a supplement such as that used in AREDS. An estimated 8 million persons at least 55 years old in the United States have monocular or binocular intermediate AMD or monocular advanced AMD. They are considered to be at high risk for advanced AMD and are those for whom the AREDS formulation should be considered. Of these people, 1.3 million would develop advanced AMD if no treatment were given to reduce their risk. If all of these people at risk received supplements such as those used in AREDS, more than 300,000 (95% confidence interval, 158,000-487,000) of them would avoid advanced AMD and any associated vision loss during the next 5 years. If people at high risk for advanced AMD received supplements such as those suggested by AREDS results, the potential impact on public health in the United States would be considerable during the next 5 years.

Economic impacts of a California tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Adam; Wing, Ian Sue; Wei, Dan; Wein, Anne

2016-01-01

The economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern California are estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economy is modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting through markets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage and business downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction of Gross Domestic Product for Southern California, Rest of California, and U.S. economies. For California, total economic impacts represent the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier) effects of lost production in industries upstream and downstream in the supply-chain of sectors that are directly impacted by port cargo disruptions at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach (POLA/POLB), property damage along the coast, and evacuation of potentially inundated areas. These impacts are estimated to be $2.2 billion from port disruptions, $0.9 billion from property damages, and $2.8 billion from evacuations. Various economic-resilience tactics can potentially reduce the direct and total impacts by 80–85%.

Variable input observer for state estimation of high-rate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Jonathan; Cao, Liang; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob

2017-04-01

High-rate systems operating in the 10 μs to 10 ms timescale are likely to experience damaging effects due to rapid environmental changes (e.g., turbulence, ballistic impact). Some of these systems could benefit from real-time state estimation to enable their full potential. Examples of such systems include blast mitigation strategies, automotive airbag technologies, and hypersonic vehicles. Particular challenges in high-rate state estimation include: 1) complex time varying nonlinearities of system (e.g. noise, uncertainty, and disturbance); 2) rapid environmental changes; 3) requirement of high convergence rate. Here, we propose using a Variable Input Observer (VIO) concept to vary the input space as the event unfolds. When systems experience high-rate dynamics, rapid changes in the system occur. To investigate the VIO's potential, a VIO-based neuro-observer is constructed and studied using experimental data collected from a laboratory impact test. Results demonstrate that the input space is unique to different impact conditions, and that adjusting the input space throughout the dynamic event produces better estimations than using a traditional fixed input space strategy.

Years of Life and Productivity Loss from Potentially Avoidable Colorectal Cancer Deaths in U.S. Counties with Lower Educational Attainment (2008-2012).

PubMed

Weir, Hannah K; Li, Chunyu; Henley, S Jane; Joseph, Djenaba

2017-05-01

Background: Educational attainment (EA) is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. Colorectal cancer screening can save lives if precancerous polyps or early cancers are found and successfully treated. This study aims to estimate the potential productivity loss (PPL) and associated avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths among screen-eligible adults residing in lower EA counties in the United States. Methods: Mortality and population data were used to examine colorectal cancer deaths (2008-2012) among adults aged 50 to 74 years in lower EA counties, and to estimate the expected number of deaths using the mortality experience from high EA counties. Excess deaths (observed-expected) were used to estimate potential years life lost, and the human capital method was used to estimate PPL in 2012 U.S. dollars. Results: County-level colorectal cancer death rates were inversely associated with county-level EA. Of the 100,857 colorectal cancer deaths in lower EA counties, we estimated that more than 21,000 (1 in 5) was potentially avoidable and resulted in nearly $2 billion annual productivity loss. Conclusions: County-level EA disparities contribute to a large number of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths. Increased prevention and improved screening potentially could decrease deaths and help reduce the associated economic burden in lower EA communities. Increased screening could further reduce deaths in all EA groups. Impact: These results estimate the large economic impact of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths in economically disadvantaged communities, as measured by lower EA. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(5); 736-42. ©2016 AACR . ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

PubMed

Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

2017-07-07

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Leyla V.; Wright, Mark G.

2017-01-01

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments. PMID:28686180

Estimating Pesticide Effects on Fecundity Rates of Wild Birds Using Current Laboratory Reproduction Tests

EPA Science Inventory

The manuscript reviews the issues concerning the use of results on pesticide effects from laboratory avian reproduction tests for estimating potential impacts of pesticides on fecundity rates in avian population models.

Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Melissa

This thesis estimates available coal resources, recoverability, mining costs, environmental impacts, and environmental control costs for the United States under technological and environmental uncertainty. It argues for a comprehensive, well-planned research program that will resolve resource uncertainty, and innovate new technologies to improve recovery and environmental performance. A stochastic process and cost (constant 2005) model for longwall, continuous, and surface mines based on current technology and mining practice data was constructed. It estimates production and cost ranges within 5-11 percent of 2006 prices and production rates. The model was applied to the National Coal Resource Assessment. Assuming the cheapest mining method is chosen to extract coal, 250-320 billion tons are recoverable. Two-thirds to all coal resource can be mined at a cost less than 4/mmBTU. If U.S. coal demand substantially increases, as projected by alternate Energy Information Administration (EIA), resources might not last more than 100 years. By scheduling cost to meet EIA projected demand, estimated cost uncertainty increases over time. It costs less than 15/ton to mine in the first 10 years of a 100 year time period, 10-30/ton in the following 50 years, and 15-$90/ton thereafter. Environmental impacts assessed are subsidence from underground mines, surface mine pit area, erosion, acid mine drainage, air pollutant and methane emissions. The analysis reveals that environmental impacts are significant and increasing as coal demand increases. Control technologies recommended to reduce these impacts are backfilling underground mines, surface pit reclamation, substitution of robotic underground mining systems for surface pit mining, soil replacement for erosion, placing barriers between exposed coal and the elements to avoid acid formation, and coalbed methane development to avoid methane emissions during mining. The costs to apply these technologies to meet more stringent environmental regulation scenarios are estimated. The results show that the cost of meeting these regulatory scenarios could increase mining costs two to six times the business as usual cost, which could significantly affect the cost of coal-powered electricity generation. This thesis provides a first estimate of resource availability, mining cost, and environmental impact assessment and cost analysis. Available resource is not completely reported, so the available estimate is lower than actual resource. Mining costs are optimized, so provide a low estimate of potential costs. Environmental impact estimates are on the high end of potential impact that may be incurred because it is assumed that impact is unavoidable. Control costs vary. Estimated cost to control subsidence and surface mine pit impacts are suitable estimates of the cost to reduce land impacts. Erosion control and robotic mining system costs are lower, and methane and acid mine drainage control costs are higher, than they may be in the case that these impacts must be reduced.

Impacts of surface water diversions for marijuana cultivation on aquatic habitat in four northwestern California watersheds.

PubMed

Bauer, Scott; Olson, Jennifer; Cockrill, Adam; van Hattem, Michael; Miller, Linda; Tauzer, Margaret; Leppig, Gordon

2015-01-01

Marijuana (Cannabis sativa L.) cultivation has proliferated in northwestern California since at least the mid-1990s. The environmental impacts associated with marijuana cultivation appear substantial, yet have been difficult to quantify, in part because cultivation is clandestine and often occurs on private property. To evaluate the impacts of water diversions at a watershed scale, we interpreted high-resolution aerial imagery to estimate the number of marijuana plants being cultivated in four watersheds in northwestern California, USA. Low-altitude aircraft flights and search warrants executed with law enforcement at cultivation sites in the region helped to validate assumptions used in aerial imagery interpretation. We estimated the water demand of marijuana irrigation and the potential effects water diversions could have on stream flow in the study watersheds. Our results indicate that water demand for marijuana cultivation has the potential to divert substantial portions of streamflow in the study watersheds, with an estimated flow reduction of up to 23% of the annual seven-day low flow in the least impacted of the study watersheds. Estimates from the other study watersheds indicate that water demand for marijuana cultivation exceeds streamflow during the low-flow period. In the most impacted study watersheds, diminished streamflow is likely to have lethal or sub-lethal effects on state- and federally-listed salmon and steelhead trout and to cause further decline of sensitive amphibian species.

Impacts of Surface Water Diversions for Marijuana Cultivation on Aquatic Habitat in Four Northwestern California Watersheds

PubMed Central

Cockrill, Adam; van Hattem, Michael; Miller, Linda; Tauzer, Margaret; Leppig, Gordon

2015-01-01

Marijuana (Cannabis sativa L.) cultivation has proliferated in northwestern California since at least the mid-1990s. The environmental impacts associated with marijuana cultivation appear substantial, yet have been difficult to quantify, in part because cultivation is clandestine and often occurs on private property. To evaluate the impacts of water diversions at a watershed scale, we interpreted high-resolution aerial imagery to estimate the number of marijuana plants being cultivated in four watersheds in northwestern California, USA. Low-altitude aircraft flights and search warrants executed with law enforcement at cultivation sites in the region helped to validate assumptions used in aerial imagery interpretation. We estimated the water demand of marijuana irrigation and the potential effects water diversions could have on stream flow in the study watersheds. Our results indicate that water demand for marijuana cultivation has the potential to divert substantial portions of streamflow in the study watersheds, with an estimated flow reduction of up to 23% of the annual seven-day low flow in the least impacted of the study watersheds. Estimates from the other study watersheds indicate that water demand for marijuana cultivation exceeds streamflow during the low-flow period. In the most impacted study watersheds, diminished streamflow is likely to have lethal or sub-lethal effects on state-and federally-listed salmon and steelhead trout and to cause further decline of sensitive amphibian species. PMID:25785849

Salinity impacts on water solubility and n-octanol/water partition coefficients of selected pesticides and oil constituents.

PubMed

Saranjampour, Parichehr; Vebrosky, Emily N; Armbrust, Kevin L

2017-09-01

Salinity has been reported to influence the water solubility of organic chemicals entering marine ecosystems. However, limited data are available on salinity impacts for chemicals potentially entering seawater. Impacts on water solubility would correspondingly impact chemical sorption as well as overall bioavailability and exposure estimates used in the regulatory assessment. The pesticides atrazine, fipronil, bifenthrin, and cypermethrin, as well as the crude oil constituent dibenzothiophene together with 3 of its alkyl derivatives, all have different polarities and were selected as model compounds to demonstrate the impact of salinity on their solubility and partitioning behavior. The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (K OW ) was measured in both distilled-deionized water and artificial seawater (3.2%). All compounds had diminished solubility and increased K OW values in artificial seawater compared with distilled-deionized water. A linear correlation curve estimated salinity may increase the log K OW value by 2.6%/1 log unit increase in distilled water (R 2  = 0.97). Salinity appears to generally decrease the water solubility and increase the partitioning potential. Environmental fate estimates based on these parameters indicate elevated chemical sorption to sediment, overall bioavailability, and toxicity in artificial seawater. These dramatic differences suggest that salinity should be taken into account when exposure estimates are made for marine organisms. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2274-2280. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Large Crater Clustering tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laura, Jason; Skinner, James A.; Hunter, Marc A.

2017-08-01

In this paper we present the Large Crater Clustering (LCC) tool set, an ArcGIS plugin that supports the quantitative approximation of a primary impact location from user-identified locations of possible secondary impact craters or the long-axes of clustered secondary craters. The identification of primary impact craters directly supports planetary geologic mapping and topical science studies where the chronostratigraphic age of some geologic units may be known, but more distant features have questionable geologic ages. Previous works (e.g., McEwen et al., 2005; Dundas and McEwen, 2007) have shown that the source of secondary impact craters can be estimated from secondary impact craters. This work adapts those methods into a statistically robust tool set. We describe the four individual tools within the LCC tool set to support: (1) processing individually digitized point observations (craters), (2) estimating the directional distribution of a clustered set of craters, back projecting the potential flight paths (crater clusters or linearly approximated catenae or lineaments), (3) intersecting projected paths, and (4) intersecting back-projected trajectories to approximate the local of potential source primary craters. We present two case studies using secondary impact features mapped in two regions of Mars. We demonstrate that the tool is able to quantitatively identify primary impacts and supports the improved qualitative interpretation of potential secondary crater flight trajectories.

Impact-based earthquake alerts with the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system: what's next?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Garcia, D.; So, E.; Hearne, M.

2012-01-01

In September 2010, the USGS began publicly releasing earthquake alerts for significant earthquakes around the globe based on estimates of potential casualties and economic losses with its Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. These estimates significantly enhanced the utility of the USGS PAGER system which had been, since 2006, providing estimated population exposures to specific shaking intensities. Quantifying earthquake impacts and communicating estimated losses (and their uncertainties) to the public, the media, humanitarian, and response communities required a new protocol—necessitating the development of an Earthquake Impact Scale—described herein and now deployed with the PAGER system. After two years of PAGER-based impact alerting, we now review operations, hazard calculations, loss models, alerting protocols, and our success rate for recent (2010-2011) events. This review prompts analyses of the strengths, limitations, opportunities, and pressures, allowing clearer definition of future research and development priorities for the PAGER system.

Public Release of Estimated Impact-Based Earthquake Alerts - An Update to the U.S. Geological Survey PAGER System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.; Jaiswal, K. S.; Marano, K.; Hearne, M.; Earle, P. S.; So, E.; Garcia, D.; Hayes, G. P.; Mathias, S.; Applegate, D.; Bausch, D.

2010-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun publicly releasing earthquake alerts for significant earthquakes around the globe based on estimates of potential casualties and economic losses. These estimates should significantly enhance the utility of the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system that has been providing estimated ShakeMaps and computing population exposures to specific shaking intensities since 2007. Quantifying earthquake impacts and communicating loss estimates (and their uncertainties) to the public has been the culmination of several important new and evolving components of the system. First, the operational PAGER system now relies on empirically-based loss models that account for estimated shaking hazard, population exposure, and employ country-specific fatality and economic loss functions derived using analyses of losses due to recent and past earthquakes. In some countries, our empirical loss models are informed in part by PAGER’s semi-empirical and analytical loss models, and building exposure and vulnerability data sets, all of which are being developed in parallel to the empirical approach. Second, human and economic loss information is now portrayed as a supplement to existing intensity/exposure content on both PAGER summary alert (available via cell phone/email) messages and web pages. Loss calculations also include estimates of the economic impact with respect to the country’s gross domestic product. Third, in order to facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake responses based on our probable loss estimates, in early 2010 we proposed a four-level Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS). Instead of simply issuing median estimates for losses—which can be easily misunderstood and misused—this scale provides ranges of losses from which potential responders can gauge expected overall impact from strong shaking. EIS is based on two complementary criteria: the estimated cost of damage, which is most suitable for U.S. domestic events; and estimated ranges of fatalities, which are generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in earthquake-vulnerable countries. Alert levels are characterized by alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered when estimated US dollar losses reach 1 million, 100 million, and 1 billion+ levels, respectively. Finally, alerting protocols now explicitly support EIS-based alerts. Critical users can receive PAGER alerts i) based on the EIS-based alert level, in addition to or as an alternative to magnitude and population/intensity exposure-based alerts, and ii) optionally, based on user-selected regions of the world. The essence of PAGER’s impact-based alerting is that actionable loss information is now available in the immediate aftermath of significant earthquakes worldwide based on quantifiable, albeit uncertain, loss estimates provided by the USGS.

Consequence assessment for Airborne Releases of SO{sub 2} from the Y-12 Pilot Dechlorination Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pendergrass, W.R.

The Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division was requested by the Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge Operations Office to conduct a consequence assessment for potential atmospheric releases of SO{sub 2} from the Y-12 Pilot Dechlorination Facility. The focus of the assessment was to identify ``worst`` case meteorology which posed the highest concentration exposure potential for both on-site as well as off-site populations. A series of plausible SO{sub 2} release scenarios were provided by Y-12 for the consequence assessment. Each scenario was evaluated for predictions of downwind concentration, estimates of a five-minute time weighted average, and estimate of the dimension of themore » puff. The highest hazard potential was associated with Scenario 1, in which a total of eight SO{sub 2} cylinders are released internally to the Pilot Facility and exhausted through the emergency venting system. A companion effort was also conducted to evaluate the potential for impact of releases of SO{sub 2} from the Pilot Facility on the population of Oak Ridge. While specific transport trajectory data is not available for the Pilot Facility, extrapolations based on the Oak Ridge Site Survey and climatological records from the Y-12 meteorological program does not indicate the potential for impact on the city of Oak Ridge. Steering by the local topographical features severely limits the potential impact ares. Due to the lack of specific observational data, both tracer and meteorological, only inferences can be made concerning impact zones. It is recommended tat the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations examine the potential for off-site impact and develop the background data to prepare impact zones for releases of hazardous materials from the Y-12 facility.« less

Managing oral phosphate binder medication expenditures within the Medicare bundled end-stage renal disease prospective payment system: economic implications for large U.S. dialysis organizations.

PubMed

Park, Haesuk; Rascati, Karen L; Keith, Michael S

2015-06-01

From January 2016, payment for oral-only renal medications (including phosphate binders and cinacalcet) was expected to be included in the new Medicare bundled end-stage renal disease (ESRD) prospective payment system (PPS). The implementation of the ESRD PPS has generated concern within the nephrology community because of the potential for inadequate funding and the impact on patient quality of care. To estimate the potential economic impact of the new Medicare bundled ESRD PPS reimbursement from the perspective of a large dialysis organization in the United States. We developed an interactive budget impact model to evaluate the potential economic implications of Medicare payment changes to large dialysis organizations treating patients with ESRD who are receiving phosphate binders. In this analysis, we focused on the budget impact of the intended 2016 integration of oral renal drugs, specifically oral phosphate binders, into the PPS. We also utilized the model to explore the budgetary impact of a variety of potential shifts in phosphate binder market shares under the bundled PPS from 2013 to 2016. The base model predicts that phosphate binder costs will increase to $34.48 per dialysis session in 2016, with estimated U.S. total costs for phosphate binders of over $682 million. Based on these estimates, a projected Medicare PPS $33.44 reimbursement rate for coverage of all oral-only renal medications (i.e., phosphate binders and cinacalcet) would be insufficient to cover these costs. A potential renal drugs and services budget shortfall for large dialysis organizations of almost $346 million was projected. Our findings suggest that large dialysis organizations will be challenged to manage phosphate binder expenditures within the planned Medicare bundled rate structure. As a result, large dialysis organizations may have to make treatment choices in light of potential inadequate funding, which could have important implications for the quality of care for patients with ESRD.

The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.; Basoli, D.; Griot, O.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for new research into the social and economic impacts of space weather and for the development of quantitative estimates of potential costs. In response to this call, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Abt Associates are working together to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of space weather to U.S. interests. This study covers impacts resulting from both moderate and severe space weather events across four technological sectors: Electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) users. It captures the full range of potential impacts, identified from an extensive literature review and from additional conversations with more than 50 sector stakeholders of diverse expertise from engineering to operations to end users. We organize and discuss our findings in terms of five broad but interrelated impact categories including Defensive Investments, Mitigating Actions, Asset Damages, Service Interruptions, and Health Effects. We also present simple, tractable estimates of the potential costs where we focused on quantifying a subset of all identified impacts that are apt to be largest and are also most plausible during moderate and more severe space weather scenarios. We hope that our systematic exploration of the social and economic impacts provides a foundation for the future work that is critical for designing technologies, developing procedures, and implementing policies that can effectively reduce our known and evolving vulnerabilities to this natural hazard.

Estimating landscape-scale impacts of agricultural management on soil carbon using measurements and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schipanski, M.; Rosenzweig, S. T.; Robertson, A. D.; Sherrod, L. A.; Ghimire, R.; McMaster, G. S.

2017-12-01

Agriculture covers 40% of Earth's ice-free land area and has broad impacts on global biogeochemical cycles. While some agricultural management changes are small in scale or impact, others have the potential to shift biogeochemical cycles at landscape and larger scales if widely adopted. Understanding which management practices have the potential to contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation while maintaining productivity requires scaling up estimates spatially and temporally. We used on-farm, long-term, and landscape scale datasets to estimate how crop rotations impact soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation rates under current and future climate scenarios across the semi-arid Central and Southern Great Plains. We used a stratified, landscape-scale soil sampling approach across 96 farm fields to evaluate crop rotation intensity effects on SOC pools and pesticide inputs. Replacing traditional wheat-fallow rotations with more diverse, continuously cropped rotations increased SOC by 17% and 12% in 0-10 cm and 0-20 cm depths, respectively, and reduced herbicide use by 50%. Using USDA Cropland Data Layer, we estimated soil C accumulation and pesticide reduction potentials of shifting to more intensive rotations. We also used a 30-year cropping systems experiment to calibrate and validate the Daycent model to evaluate rotation intensify effects under future climate change scenarios. The model estimated greater SOC accumulation rates under continuously cropped rotations, but SOC stocks peaked and then declined for all cropping systems beyond 2050 under future climate scenarios. Perennial grasslands were the only system estimated to maintain SOC levels in the future. In the Southern High Plains, soil C declined despite increasing input intensity under current weather while modest gains were simulated under future climate for sorghum-based cropping systems. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of semi-arid regions to climate change, which will be compounded by declining groundwater levels along the western edge of the High Plains Aquifer that increase reliance on dryland farming systems. Understanding these challenges provides opportunities to develop future transition and adaptation strategies in partnership with producers, policy makers, and rural communities.

Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate

PubMed Central

Littleton, Ashley C.; Cox, Leah M.; DeFreese, J.D.; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C.; Schmidt, Julianne D.; Marshall, Stephen W.; Guskiewicz, Kevin M.

2015-01-01

Abstract Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information related to primary position played and participation in games and practice contacts during the pre-season, regular season, and post-season of each year of their high school, college, and professional football careers. Spring football for college was also included. We calculated contact exposure estimates for 64 former football players (n=32 college football only, n=32 professional and college football). The head impact exposure estimate (HIEE) discriminated between individuals who stopped after college football, and individuals who played professional football (p<0.001). The HIEE measure was independent of concussion history (p=0.82). Estimating total hours of contact exposure may allow for the detection of differences between individuals with variation in subconcussive impacts, regardless of concussion history. This measure is valuable for the surveillance of subconcussive impacts and their associated potential negative effects. PMID:25603189

Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate.

PubMed

Kerr, Zachary Y; Littleton, Ashley C; Cox, Leah M; DeFreese, J D; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C; Schmidt, Julianne D; Marshall, Stephen W; Guskiewicz, Kevin M

2015-07-15

Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information related to primary position played and participation in games and practice contacts during the pre-season, regular season, and post-season of each year of their high school, college, and professional football careers. Spring football for college was also included. We calculated contact exposure estimates for 64 former football players (n = 32 college football only, n = 32 professional and college football). The head impact exposure estimate (HIEE) discriminated between individuals who stopped after college football, and individuals who played professional football (p < 0.001). The HIEE measure was independent of concussion history (p = 0.82). Estimating total hours of contact exposure may allow for the detection of differences between individuals with variation in subconcussive impacts, regardless of concussion history. This measure is valuable for the surveillance of subconcussive impacts and their associated potential negative effects.

Modeling of GE Appliances: Cost Benefit Study of Smart Appliances in Wholesale Energy, Frequency Regulation, and Spinning Reserve Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fuller, Jason C.; Parker, Graham B.

This report is the second in a series of three reports describing the potential of GE’s DR-enabled appliances to provide benefits to the utility grid. The first report described the modeling methodology used to represent the GE appliances in the GridLAB-D simulation environment and the estimated potential for peak demand reduction at various deployment levels. The third report will explore the technical capability of aggregated group actions to positively impact grid stability, including frequency and voltage regulation and spinning reserves, and the impacts on distribution feeder voltage regulation, including mitigation of fluctuations caused by high penetration of photovoltaic distributed generation.more » In this report, a series of analytical methods were presented to estimate the potential cost benefit of smart appliances while utilizing demand response. Previous work estimated the potential technical benefit (i.e., peak reduction) of smart appliances, while this report focuses on the monetary value of that participation. The effects on wholesale energy cost and possible additional revenue available by participating in frequency regulation and spinning reserve markets were explored.« less

Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.

2010-01-01

While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of themore » U.S. economy.« less

An Empirical Investigation of the Potential Impact of Item Misfit on Test Scores. Research Report. ETS RR-17-60

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Sooyeon; Robin, Frederic

2017-01-01

In this study, we examined the potential impact of item misfit on the reported scores of an admission test from the subpopulation invariance perspective. The target population of the test consisted of 3 major subgroups with different geographic regions. We used the logistic regression function to estimate item parameters of the operational items…

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Darius Adams; Tara Barrett

2010-01-01

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests of the United States. The model, coupled with...

Quantifying potential health impacts of cadmium in cigarettes on smoker risk of lung cancer: a portfolio-of-mechanisms approach.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2006-12-01

This article introduces an approach to estimating the uncertain potential effects on lung cancer risk of removing a particular constituent, cadmium (Cd), from cigarette smoke, given the useful but incomplete scientific information available about its modes of action. The approach considers normal cell proliferation; DNA repair inhibition in normal cells affected by initiating events; proliferation, promotion, and progression of initiated cells; and death or sparing of initiated and malignant cells as they are further transformed to become fully tumorigenic. Rather than estimating unmeasured model parameters by curve fitting to epidemiological or animal experimental tumor data, we attempt rough estimates of parameters based on their biological interpretations and comparison to corresponding genetic polymorphism data. The resulting parameter estimates are admittedly uncertain and approximate, but they suggest a portfolio approach to estimating impacts of removing Cd that gives usefully robust conclusions. This approach views Cd as creating a portfolio of uncertain health impacts that can be expressed as biologically independent relative risk factors having clear mechanistic interpretations. Because Cd can act through many distinct biological mechanisms, it appears likely (subjective probability greater than 40%) that removing Cd from cigarette smoke would reduce smoker risks of lung cancer by at least 10%, although it is possible (consistent with what is known) that the true effect could be much larger or smaller. Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects.

75 FR 1568 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Proposed Designation of Critical Habitat for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-12

... designation. The majority of the total future baseline impacts are associated with development projects ($6.4... development projects. The DEA estimates that total potential incremental economic impacts in areas proposed as..., the range in total incremental impacts is due to the range in development forecasts. The lack of...

Estimating landscape-scale impacts of agricultural management on soil carbon using measurements and models.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agriculture covers 40% of Earth’s ice-free land area and has broad impacts on global biogeochemical cycles. While some agricultural management changes are small in scale or impact, others have the potential to shift biogeochemical cycles at landscape and larger scales if widely adopted. Understandin...

Estimating the population-level impact of vaccines using synthetic controls

PubMed Central

Bruhn, Christian A. W.; Hetterich, Stephen; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Kürüm, Esra; Taylor, Robert J.; Lustig, Roger; Shapiro, Eugene D.; Warren, Joshua L.; Weinberger, Daniel M.

2017-01-01

When a new vaccine is introduced, it is critical to monitor trends in disease rates to ensure that the vaccine is effective and to quantify its impact. However, estimates from observational studies can be confounded by unrelated changes in healthcare utilization, changes in the underlying health of the population, or changes in reporting. Other diseases are often used to detect and adjust for these changes, but choosing an appropriate control disease a priori is a major challenge. The “synthetic controls” (causal impact) method, which was originally developed for website analytics and social sciences, provides an appealing solution. With this approach, potential comparison time series are combined into a composite and are used to generate a counterfactual estimate, which can be compared with the time series of interest after the intervention. We sought to estimate changes in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia associated with the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in five countries in the Americas. Using synthetic controls, we found a substantial decline in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in infants in all five countries (average of 20%), whereas estimates for young and middle-aged adults varied by country and were potentially influenced by the 2009 influenza pandemic. In contrast to previous reports, we did not detect a decline in all-cause pneumonia in older adults in any country. Synthetic controls promise to increase the accuracy of studies of vaccine impact and to increase comparability of results between populations compared with alternative approaches. PMID:28154145

Estimating the population-level impact of vaccines using synthetic controls.

PubMed

Bruhn, Christian A W; Hetterich, Stephen; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Kürüm, Esra; Taylor, Robert J; Lustig, Roger; Shapiro, Eugene D; Warren, Joshua L; Simonsen, Lone; Weinberger, Daniel M

2017-02-14

When a new vaccine is introduced, it is critical to monitor trends in disease rates to ensure that the vaccine is effective and to quantify its impact. However, estimates from observational studies can be confounded by unrelated changes in healthcare utilization, changes in the underlying health of the population, or changes in reporting. Other diseases are often used to detect and adjust for these changes, but choosing an appropriate control disease a priori is a major challenge. The "synthetic controls" (causal impact) method, which was originally developed for website analytics and social sciences, provides an appealing solution. With this approach, potential comparison time series are combined into a composite and are used to generate a counterfactual estimate, which can be compared with the time series of interest after the intervention. We sought to estimate changes in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia associated with the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in five countries in the Americas. Using synthetic controls, we found a substantial decline in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in infants in all five countries (average of 20%), whereas estimates for young and middle-aged adults varied by country and were potentially influenced by the 2009 influenza pandemic. In contrast to previous reports, we did not detect a decline in all-cause pneumonia in older adults in any country. Synthetic controls promise to increase the accuracy of studies of vaccine impact and to increase comparability of results between populations compared with alternative approaches.

Cost-savings for biosimilars in the United States: a theoretical framework and budget impact case study application using filgrastim.

PubMed

Grewal, Simrun; Ramsey, Scott; Balu, Sanjeev; Carlson, Josh J

2018-05-18

Biosimilars can directly reduce the cost of treating patients for whom a reference biologic is indicated by offering a highly similar, lower priced alternative. We examine factors related to biosimilar regulatory approval, uptake, pricing, and financing and the potential impact on drug expenditures in the U.S. We developed a framework to illustrate how key factors including regulatory policies, provider and patient perception, pricing, and payer policies impact biosimilar cost-savings. Further, we developed a budget impact cost model to estimate savings from filgrastim biosimilars under various scenarios. The model uses publicly available data on disease incidence, treatment patterns, market share, and drug prices to estimate the cost-savings over a 5-year time horizon. We estimate five-year cost savings of $256 million, of which 18% ($47 million) are from reduced patient out-of-pocket costs, 34% ($86 million) are savings to commercial payers, and 48% ($123 million) are savings for Medicare. Additional scenarios demonstrate the impact of uncertain factors, including price, uptake, and financing policies. A variety or interrelated factors influence the development, uptake, and cost-savings for Biosimilars use in the U.S. The filgrastim case is a useful example that illustrates these factors and the potential magnitude of costs savings.

Comparison of estimated and measured sediment yield in the Gualala River

Treesearch

Matthew O’Connor; Jack Lewis; Robert Pennington

2012-01-01

This study compares quantitative erosion rate estimates developed at different spatial and temporal scales. It is motivated by the need to assess potential water quality impacts of a proposed vineyard development project in the Gualala River watershed. Previous erosion rate estimates were developed using sediment source assessment techniques by the North Coast Regional...

Budget Impact Analysis of Prolonged Half-Life Recombinant FVIII Therapy for Hemophilia in the United States.

PubMed

McMullen, Suzanne; Buckley, Brieana; Hall, Eric; Kendter, Jon; Johnston, Karissa

2017-01-01

Hemophilia A is a factor VIII deficiency, associated with spontaneous, recurrent bleeding episodes. This may lead to comorbidities such as arthropathy and joint replacement, which contribute to morbidity and increased health care expenditure. Recombinant factor VIII Fc fusion protein (rFVIIIFc), a prolonged half-life factor therapy, requires fewer infusions, resulting in reduced treatment burden. Use a budget impact analysis to assess the potential economic impact of introducing rFVIIIFc to a formulary from the perspective of a private payer in the United States. The budget impact model was developed to estimate the potential economic impact of adding rFVIIIFc to a private payer formulary across a 2-year time period. The eligible patient population consisted of inhibitor-free adults with severe hemophilia A, receiving recombinant-based episodic or prophylaxis treatment regimens. Patients were assumed to switch from conventional recombinant factor treatment to rFVIIIFc. Only medication costs were included in the model. The introduction of rFVIIIFc is estimated to have a budget impact of 1.4% ($0.12 per member per month) across 2 years for a private payer population of 1,000,000 (estimated 19.7 individuals receiving treatment for hemophilia A). The introduction of rFVIIIFc is estimated to prevent 124 bleeds across 2 years at a cost of $1891 per bleed avoided. Hemophilia A is a rare disease with a low prevalence; therefore, the overall cost to society of introducing rFVIIIFc is small. Considerations for comprehensively assessing the budget impact of introducing rFVIIIFc should include episodic and prophylaxis regimens, bleed avoidance, and annual factor consumption required under alternative scenarios. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reassessment of the potential economic impact of cattle parasites in Brazil.

PubMed

Grisi, Laerte; Leite, Romário Cerqueira; Martins, João Ricardo de Souza; Barros, Antonio Thadeu Medeiros de; Andreotti, Renato; Cançado, Paulo Henrique Duarte; León, Adalberto Angel Pérez de; Pereira, Jairo Barros; Villela, Humberto Silva

2014-01-01

The profitability of livestock activities can be diminished significantly by the effects of parasites. Economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Brazil were estimated on an annual basis, considering the total number of animals at risk and the potential detrimental effects of parasitism on cattle productivity. Estimates in U.S. dollars (USD) were based on reported yield losses among untreated animals and reflected some of the effects of parasitic diseases. Relevant parasites that affect cattle productivity in Brazil, and their economic impact in USD billions include: gastrointestinal nematodes - $7.11; cattle tick (Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus) - $3.24; horn fly (Haematobia irritans) - $2.56; cattle grub (Dermatobia hominis) - $0.38; New World screwworm fly (Cochliomyia hominivorax) - $0.34; and stable fly (Stomoxys calcitrans) - $0.34. The combined annual economic loss due to internal and external parasites of cattle in Brazil considered here was estimated to be at least USD 13.96 billion. These findings are discussed in the context of methodologies and research that are required in order to improve the accuracy of these economic impact assessments. This information needs to be taken into consideration when developing sustainable policies for mitigating the impact of parasitism on the profitability of Brazilian cattle producers.

Economic costs of protistan and metazoan parasites to global mariculture.

PubMed

Shinn, A P; Pratoomyot, J; Bron, J E; Paladini, G; Brooker, E E; Brooker, A J

2015-01-01

Parasites have a major impact on global finfish and shellfish aquaculture, having significant effects on farm production, sustainability and economic viability. Parasite infections and impacts can, according to pathogen and context, be considered to be either unpredictable/sporadic or predictable/regular. Although both types of infection may result in the loss of stock and incur costs associated with the control and management of infection, predictable infections can also lead to costs associated with prophylaxis and related activities. The estimation of the economic cost of a parasite event is frequently complicated by the complex interplay of numerous factors associated with a specific incident, which may range from direct production losses to downstream socio-economic impacts on livelihoods and satellite industries associated with the primary producer. In this study, we examine the world's major marine and brackish water aquaculture production industries and provide estimates of the potential economic costs attributable to a range of key parasite pathogens using 498 specific events for the purposes of illustration and estimation of costs. This study provides a baseline resource for risk assessment and the development of more robust biosecurity practices, which can in turn help mitigate against and/or minimise the potential impacts of parasite-mediated disease in aquaculture.

Health Impact Modelling of Active Travel Visions for England and Wales Using an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM)

PubMed Central

Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott

2013-01-01

Background Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Methods Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. Results This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Conclusions Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research. PMID:23326315

Health impact modelling of active travel visions for England and Wales using an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM).

PubMed

Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott

2013-01-01

Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research.

A financial impact assessment of LD 1725 : stream crossings.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This report looks at the potential financial impact of LD 1725, a Maine Legislative bill that was : considered during the second regular session of the 124th Maine Legislature. The bill would : affect the design & construction of an estimated 30,000 ...

MODELS TO ESTIMATE VOLATILE ORGANIC HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS FROM MUNICIPAL SEWER SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Emissions from municipal sewers are usually omitted from hazardous air pollutant (HAP) emission inventories. This omission may result from a lack of appreciation for the potential emission impact and/or from inadequate emission estimation procedures. This paper presents an analys...

Woody biomass supply from thinnings to reduce fire hazard in the U.S. West and its potential impact on regional wood markets

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog; Peter J. Ince; Henry Spelter; Andi Kramp; R. James Barbour

2008-01-01

Part I of this paper identifies timberland areas in 12 western states where thinning treatments are judged to be needed to reduce fire hazard and may ?pay for themselves?? at a scale to make investment in forest product processing a realistic option. We also estimate amounts of biomass removed and costs of removal. Part II of this paper estimates the market impact if...

Ecosystem services impacts associated with environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nitrogen release to the environment from human activities can have important and costly impacts on human health, recreation, transportation, fisheries, and ecosystem health. Recent efforts to quantify these damage costs have identified annual damages associated with reactive nitrogen release to the EU and US in the hundreds of billions of US dollars (USD). The general approach used to estimate these damages associated with reactive nitrogen are derived from a variety of methods to estimate economic damages, for example, impacts to human respiratory health in terms of hospital visits and mortality, willingness to pay to improve a water body and costs to replace or treat drinking water systems affected by nitrate or cyanotoxin contamination. These values are then extrapolated to other areas to develop the damage cost estimates that are probably best seen as potential damage costs, particularly for aquatic ecosystems. We seek to provide an additional verification of these potential damages using data assembled by the US EPA for case studies of measured costs of nutrient impacts across the US from 2000-2012. We compare the spatial distribution and the magnitude of these costs with the spatial distribution and magnitude of costs from HUC8 watershed units across the US by Sobota et al. (2015). We anticipate that this analysis will provide a ground truthing of existing damage cost estimates, and continue to support the incorporation of cost and benefit informatio

The economic impact of pig-associated parasitic zoonosis in Northern Lao PDR.

PubMed

Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Conlan, James V; Racloz, Vanessa Nadine; Reid, Simon Andrew; Blacksell, Stuart D; Fenwick, Stanley G; Thompson, Andrew R C; Khamlome, Boualam; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Whittaker, Maxine

2013-03-01

The parasitic zoonoses human cysticercosis (Taenia solium), taeniasis (other Taenia species) and trichinellosis (Trichinella species) are endemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). This study was designed to quantify the economic burden pig-associated zoonotic disease pose in Lao PDR. In particular, the analysis included estimation of the losses in the pork industry as well as losses due to human illness and lost productivity. A Markov-probability based decision-tree model was chosen to form the basis of the calculations to estimate the economic and public health impacts of taeniasis, trichinellosis and cysticercosis. Two different decision trees were run simultaneously on the model's human cohort. A third decision tree simulated the potential impacts on pig production. The human capital method was used to estimate productivity loss. The results found varied significantly depending on the rate of hospitalisation due to neurocysticerosis. This study is the first systematic estimate of the economic impact of pig-associated zoonotic diseases in Lao PDR that demonstrates the significance of the diseases in that country.

FOOTPRINT: A COMPUTER APPLICATION FOR ESTIMATING PLUME AREAS OF BTEX COMPOUNDS IN GROUND WATER IMPACTED BY A SPILL OF GASOLINE CONTAINING ETHANOL

EPA Science Inventory

Ethanol has a potential negative impact on the natural biodegradation of other gasoline constituents, including BTEX compounds, in ground water. The impact of ethanol on the size of the BTEX plume should be considered in the risk evaluation of spills of gasoline containing ethan...

The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands.

PubMed

Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard; Smith, Richard D; Edmunds, John W; Beutels, Philippe

2010-12-01

The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) showed that infectious disease outbreaks can have notable macroeconomic impacts. The current H1N1 and potential H5N1 flu pandemics could have a much greater impact. Using a multi-sector single country computable general equilibrium model of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands, together with disease scenarios of varying severity, we examine the potential economic cost of a modern pandemic. Policies of school closure, vaccination and antivirals, together with prophylactic absence from work are evaluated and their cost impacts are estimated. Results suggest GDP losses from the disease of approximately 0.5-2% but school closure and prophylactic absenteeism more than triples these effects. Increasing school closures from 4 weeks at the peak to entire pandemic closure almost doubles the economic cost, but antivirals and vaccinations seem worthwhile. Careful planning is therefore important to ensure expensive policies to mitigate the pandemic are effective in minimising illness and deaths.

A model for estimating the impact of changes in children's vaccines.

PubMed

Simpson, K N; Biddle, A K; Rabinovich, N R

1995-12-01

To assist in strategic planning for the improvement of vaccines and vaccine programs, an economic model was developed and tested that estimates the potential impact of vaccine innovations on health outcomes and costs associated with vaccination and illness. A multistep, iterative process of data extraction/integration was used to develop the model and the scenarios. Parameter replication, sensitivity analysis, and expert review were used to validate the model. The greatest impact on the improvement of health is expected to result from the production of less reactogenic vaccines that require fewer inoculations for immunity. The greatest economic impact is predicted from improvements that decrease the number of inoculations required. Scenario analysis may be useful for integrating health outcomes and economic data into decision making. For childhood infections, this analysis indicates that large cost savings can be achieved in the future if we can improve vaccine efficacy so that the number of required inoculations is reduced. Such an improvement represents a large potential "payback" for the United States and might benefit other countries.

Clark county monitoring program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conway, Sheila; Auger, Jeremy; Navies, Irene

2007-07-01

Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Since 1988, Clark County has been one of the counties designated by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) as an 'Affected Unit of Local Government' (AULG). The AULG designation is an acknowledgement by the federal government that could be negatively impacted to a considerable degree by activities associated with the Yucca Mountain High Level Nuclear Waste Repository. These negative effects would have an impact on residents as individuals and the community as a whole. As an AULG, Clark County is authorized to identify 'any potential economic, social, public healthmore » and safety, and environmental impacts' of the potential repository (42 USC Section 10135(C)(1)(B)(1)). Toward this end, Clark County has conducted numerous studies of potential impacts, many of which are summarized in the Clark County's Impact Assessment Report that was submitted by the DOE and the president of the United States in February 2002. Given the unprecedented magnitude and duration of the DoE's proposal, as well as the many unanswered questions about the number of shipments and the modal mix, the estimate of impacts described in these studies are preliminary. In order to refine these estimates, Clark County Comprehensive Planning Department's Nuclear Waste Division is continuing to assess potential impacts. In addition, the County has implemented a Monitoring Program designed to capture changes to the social, environmental, and economic well-being of its residents resulting from the Yucca Mountain project and other significant events within the County. The Monitoring Program acts as an 'early warning system' that allows Clark County decision makers to proactive respond to impacts from the Yucca Mountain Project. (authors)« less

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.

This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

The benefits of improved technologies in agricultural aviation. [economic impact and aircraft configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The economic benefits attributable to a variety of potential technological improvements in agricultural aviation are discussed. Topics covered include: the ag-air industry, the data base used to estimate the potential benefits and a summary of the potential benefits from technological improvements; ag-air activities in the United States; foreign ag-air activities; major ag-air aircraft is use and manufacturers' sales and distribution networks; and estimates of the benefits to the United States of proposed technological improvements to the aircraft and dispersal equipment. A bibliography of references is appended.

Life cycle water consumption and wastewater generation impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well.

PubMed

Jiang, Mohan; Hendrickson, Chris T; VanBriesen, Jeanne M

2014-01-01

This study estimates the life cycle water consumption and wastewater generation impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well from its construction to end of life. Direct water consumption at the well site was assessed by analysis of data from approximately 500 individual well completion reports collected in 2010 by the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Indirect water consumption for supply chain production at each life cycle stage of the well was estimated using the economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) method. Life cycle direct and indirect water quality pollution impacts were assessed and compared using the tool for the reduction and assessment of chemical and other environmental impacts (TRACI). Wastewater treatment cost was proposed as an additional indicator for water quality pollution impacts from shale gas well wastewater. Four water management scenarios for Marcellus shale well wastewater were assessed: current conditions in Pennsylvania; complete discharge; direct reuse and desalination; and complete desalination. The results show that under the current conditions, an average Marcellus shale gas well consumes 20,000 m(3) (with a range from 6700 to 33,000 m(3)) of freshwater per well over its life cycle excluding final gas utilization, with 65% direct water consumption at the well site and 35% indirect water consumption across the supply chain production. If all flowback and produced water is released into the environment without treatment, direct wastewater from a Marcellus shale gas well is estimated to have 300-3000 kg N-eq eutrophication potential, 900-23,000 kg 2,4D-eq freshwater ecotoxicity potential, 0-370 kg benzene-eq carcinogenic potential, and 2800-71,000 MT toluene-eq noncarcinogenic potential. The potential toxicity of the chemicals in the wastewater from the well site exceeds those associated with supply chain production, except for carcinogenic effects. If all the Marcellus shale well wastewater is treated to surface discharge standards by desalination, $59,000-270,000 per well would be required. The life cycle study results indicate that when gas end use is not considered hydraulic fracturing is the largest contributor to the life cycle water impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well.

Recent Approaches to Estimate Associations Between Source-Specific Air Pollution and Health.

PubMed

Krall, Jenna R; Strickland, Matthew J

2017-03-01

Estimating health effects associated with source-specific exposure is important for better understanding how pollution impacts health and for developing policies to better protect public health. Although epidemiologic studies of sources can be informative, these studies are challenging to conduct because source-specific exposures (e.g., particulate matter from vehicles) often are not directly observed and must be estimated. We reviewed recent studies that estimated associations between pollution sources and health to identify methodological developments designed to address important challenges. Notable advances in epidemiologic studies of sources include approaches for (1) propagating uncertainty in source estimation into health effect estimates, (2) assessing regional and seasonal variability in emissions sources and source-specific health effects, and (3) addressing potential confounding in estimated health effects. Novel methodological approaches to address challenges in studies of pollution sources, particularly evaluation of source-specific health effects, are important for determining how source-specific exposure impacts health.

Cost-effectiveness of a potential future Helicobacter pylori vaccine in the Netherlands: the impact of varying the discount rate for health.

PubMed

de Vries, Robin; Klok, Rogier M; Brouwers, Jacobus R B J; Postma, Maarten J

2009-02-05

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Helicobacter pylori (HP) vaccine for the Dutch situation, we developed a Markov model. Several HP prevalence scenarios were assessed. Additionally, we assessed the impact of the discount rate for health on the outcomes, as this influence can be profound for vaccines. When applying the current discount rate of 1.5% for health, the expected cost-effectiveness of HP vaccination is estimated below the informal Dutch threshold of euro 20,000/LYG when the HP prevalence is assumed > or =20% in the Dutch population. In conclusion, we showed that HP vaccination could possibly be a cost-effective intervention. However, this depends to a large extend on the prevalence of HP in the population. Furthermore, we showed the large impact of the discount rate for health on the cost-effectiveness of a HP vaccination program, illustrative for other vaccination programs.

Valuing Non-CO2 GHG Emission Changes in Benefit-Cost ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The climate impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impose social costs on society. To date, EPA has not had an approach to estimate the economic benefits of reducing emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (or the costs of increasing them) that is consistent with the methodology underlying the U.S. Government’s current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC). A recently published paper presents estimates of the social cost of methane that are consistent with the SCC estimates. The Agency is seeking review of the potential application of these new benefit estimates to benefit cost analysis in relation to current practice in this area. The goal of this project is to improve upon the current treatment of non-CO2 GHG emission impacts in benefit-cost analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

Chemical supply chain modeling for analysis of homeland security events

DOE PAGES

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.; ...

2013-09-06

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD

EPA Science Inventory

Because of the uncertainties surrounding prediction of climate change, it is common to employ climate scenarios to estimate its impacts on a system. Climate scenarios are sets of climatic perturbations used with models to test system sensitivity to projected changes. In this stud...

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 2. Introduction and Framework for Analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-09-01

The study represents the first systematic attempt to estimate the potential impacts of a wide range of IP options in different settings. The output of this study should provide local decision-makers with a better understanding of the varied impacts a...

Using cell phone location to assess misclassification errors in air pollution exposure estimation.

PubMed

Yu, Haofei; Russell, Armistead; Mulholland, James; Huang, Zhijiong

2018-02-01

Air pollution epidemiologic and health impact studies often rely on home addresses to estimate individual subject's pollution exposure. In this study, we used detailed cell phone location data, the call detail record (CDR), to account for the impact of spatiotemporal subject mobility on estimates of ambient air pollutant exposure. This approach was applied on a sample with 9886 unique simcard IDs in Shenzhen, China, on one mid-week day in October 2013. Hourly ambient concentrations of six chosen pollutants were simulated by the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model fused with observational data, and matched with detailed location data for these IDs. The results were compared with exposure estimates using home addresses to assess potential exposure misclassification errors. We found the misclassifications errors are likely to be substantial when home location alone is applied. The CDR based approach indicates that the home based approach tends to over-estimate exposures for subjects with higher exposure levels and under-estimate exposures for those with lower exposure levels. Our results show that the cell phone location based approach can be used to assess exposure misclassification error and has the potential for improving exposure estimates in air pollution epidemiology studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Counting Jobs and Economic Impacts from Distributed Wind in the United States (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.

This conference poster describes the distributed wind Jobs and Economic Development Imapcts (JEDI) model. The goal of this work is to provide a model that estimates jobs and other economic effects associated with the domestic distributed wind industry. The distributed wind JEDI model is a free input-output model that estimates employment and other impacts resulting from an investment in distributed wind installations. Default inputs are from installers and industry experts and are based on existing projects. User input can be minimal (use defaults) or very detailed for more precise results. JEDI can help evaluate potential scenarios, current or future; informmore » stakeholders and decision-makers; assist businesses in evaluating economic development impacts and estimating jobs; assist government organizations with planning and evaluating and developing communities.« less

Bedload transport rates in a gravel bedded-river derived from high-resolution monitoring using seismic impact plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, Peter; Soar, Philip

2015-04-01

Accurate characterisation of bedload transport rates is critical for a better understanding of geomorphological process dynamics, aquatic habitats, sediment budgets and strategies for catchment-scale initiatives in sediment management under conditions of climate change. However, rate estimation is challenging in practice: direct measurements are costly and logistically difficult to achieve with acceptable accuracy over geomorphologically-relevant time periods, and the uncertainty in transport rates predicted from empirical formulae and numerical simulation is rarely below 50 per cent. Partly reflecting these issues, passive technologies for continuous bedload monitoring are becoming increasingly popular. Sensors such as seismic impact plates offer the opportunity to characterise bedload activity at exceptionally high resolution - monitoring from the River Avon, (Devon, UK) indicated that despite significant intra-event and between-plate differences in apparent bedload transport aggregated over 5-minute periods, the magnitude-frequency product of discharge and impact frequency result in a highly plausible effective discharge, supporting the potential value of impact plates as indicators of relative sediment transport loads over annual timescales. Whereas the focus in bedload rate estimation to date has been on developing satisfactory sediment rating curves from detection signals, we instead develop a method for directly estimating bedload transport rates from impact plate data as a function of intensity of transport (count, n, per second), bed material mass (kg) and cross-stream transport variability. Bulk sediment samples are converted to a mass in transit for each instantaneous discharge according to the intensity of transport and a Monte Carlo simulation of the load in transit determined at random from the bed material particle size distribution. The lower detection threshold is determined using experimental calibration and the upper size limit is determined from incipient motion estimates thereby establishing the fraction of transported material sensed by the plates. The lateral variability in transport rates across the cross-section is estimated empirically using multiple plates or by interpolation. This procedure provides a potentially affordable and robust method of achieving uncertainty-bound indicative measures of bedload transport with the potential for wide-ranging practical applications.

A Two-Stage Method to Determine Optimal Product Sampling considering Dynamic Potential Market

PubMed Central

Hu, Zhineng; Lu, Wei; Han, Bing

2015-01-01

This paper develops an optimization model for the diffusion effects of free samples under dynamic changes in potential market based on the characteristics of independent product and presents a two-stage method to figure out the sampling level. The impact analysis of the key factors on the sampling level shows that the increase of the external coefficient or internal coefficient has a negative influence on the sampling level. And the changing rate of the potential market has no significant influence on the sampling level whereas the repeat purchase has a positive one. Using logistic analysis and regression analysis, the global sensitivity analysis gives a whole analysis of the interaction of all parameters, which provides a two-stage method to estimate the impact of the relevant parameters in the case of inaccuracy of the parameters and to be able to construct a 95% confidence interval for the predicted sampling level. Finally, the paper provides the operational steps to improve the accuracy of the parameter estimation and an innovational way to estimate the sampling level. PMID:25821847

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.;

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

2016-12-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Uncertainty of climate change impacts on soil erosion from cropland in central Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Impacts of climate change on soil erosion and the potential need for additional conservation actions are typically estimated by applying a hydrologic and soil erosion model under present and future climate conditions defined by an emission scenario. Projecting future climate conditions harbors sever...

USING SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR ESTIMATING IMPACTS TO GROUND WATER AT PETROLEUM RELEASE SITES - WORKSHOP

EPA Science Inventory

Regulators and consultants alike are routinely tasked with predicting potential future impacts to ground water resources from leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. Site data is usually sparse, variable, and uncertain at best. However, this type of data can be evaluated ...

FEASIBILITY STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NITROGEN IN CAPE COD EMBAYMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to explore the feasibility of studying potential effects of climate change on impairments resulting from nitrogen loadings in the salt water embayments of Cape Cod. The report includes a recommended plan for studying these impacts, an estimate of t...

Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

2016-04-01

Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches incorporated in the model. The stage/discharge relations obtained at gauging stations were also compared to the real rating curves, showing a very different behavior of the method depending on the local configuration of the considered site. Some developments are now in progress in order to evaluate and validate, as far as possible, the results of the entire simulation chain at the event scale. This work relies on the comparison of simulation results (estimated flood impacts) with insurance losses data (provided by CCR) for several significant past flood events. The first results of this work will be presented.

Estimate of Fuel Consumption and GHG Emission Impact from an Automated Mobility District

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yuche; Young, Stanley; Qi, Xuewei

2015-10-19

This study estimates the range of fuel and emissions impact of an automated-vehicle (AV) based transit system that services campus-based developments, termed an automated mobility district (AMD). The study develops a framework to quantify the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts of a transit system comprised of AVs, taking into consideration average vehicle fleet composition, fuel consumption/GHG emission of vehicles within specific speed bins, and the average occupancy of passenger vehicles and transit vehicles. The framework is exercised using a previous mobility analysis of a personal rapid transit (PRT) system, a system which shares many attributes with envisionedmore » AV-based transit systems. Total fuel consumption and GHG emissions with and without an AMD are estimated, providing a range of potential system impacts on sustainability. The results of a previous case study based of a proposed implementation of PRT on the Kansas State University (KSU) campus in Manhattan, Kansas, serves as the basis to estimate personal miles traveled supplanted by an AMD at varying levels of service. The results show that an AMD has the potential to reduce total system fuel consumption and GHG emissions, but the amount is largely dependent on operating and ridership assumptions. The study points to the need to better understand ride-sharing scenarios and calls for future research on sustainability benefits of an AMD system at both vehicle and system levels.« less

Financial impact of tertiary care in an academic medical center.

PubMed

Huber, T S; Carlton, L M; O'Hern, D G; Hardt, N S; Keith Ozaki, C; Flynn, T C; Seeger, J M

2000-06-01

To analyze the financial impact of three complex vascular surgical procedures to both an academic hospital and a department of surgery and to examine the potential impact of decreased reimbursements. The cost of providing tertiary care has been implicated as one potential cause of the financial difficulties affecting academic medical centers. Patients undergoing revascularization for chronic mesenteric ischemia, elective thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and treatment of infected aortic grafts at the University of Florida were compared with those undergoing elective infrarenal aortic reconstruction and carotid endarterectomy. Hospital costs and profit summaries were obtained from the Clinical Resource Management Office. Departmental costs and profit summary were estimated based on the procedural relative value units (RVUs), the average clinical cost per RVU ($33.12), surgeon charges, and the collection rate for the vascular surgery division (30.2%) obtained from the Faculty Group Practice. Surgeon work effort was analyzed using the procedural work RVUs and the estimated total care time. The analyses were performed for all payors and the subset of Medicare patients, and the potential impact of a 15% reduction in hospital and physician reimbursement was analyzed. Net hospital income was positive for all but one of the tertiary care procedures, but net losses were sustained by the hospital for the mesenteric ischemia and infected aortic graft groups among the Medicare patients. In contrast, the estimated reimbursement to the department of surgery for all payors was insufficient to offset the clinical cost of providing the RVUs for all procedures, and the estimated losses were greater for the Medicare patients alone. The surgeon work effort was dramatically higher for the tertiary care procedures, whereas the reimbursement per work effort was lower. A 15% reduction in reimbursement would result in an estimated net loss to the hospital for each of the tertiary care procedures and would exacerbate the estimated losses to the department. Caring for complex surgical problems is currently profitable to an academic hospital but is associated with marginal losses for a department of surgery. Economic forces resulting from further decreases in hospital and physician reimbursement may limit access to academic medical centers and surgeons for patients with complex surgical problems and may compromise the overall academic mission.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Anthoff, David; Rose, Steven K.

We use FUND 3.8 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride emissions. The damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide—is also estimated. The damage potentials are compared to several metrics, focusing in particular on the global warming potentials, which are frequently used to measure the trade-off between gases in the form of carbon dioxide equivalents. We find that damage potentials could be significantly higher than global warming potentials. This finding implies that previous papersmore » have underestimated the relative importance of reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from an economic damage perspective. We show results for a range of sensitivity analyses: carbon dioxide fertilization on agriculture productivity, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. The sensitivity of the results to carbon dioxide fertilization is a primary focus as it is an important element of climate change that has not been considered in much of the previous literature. We estimate that carbon dioxide fertilization has a large positive impact that reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide with a much smaller effect on the other greenhouse gases. As a result, our estimates of the damage potentials of methane and nitrous oxide are much higher compared to estimates that ignore carbon dioxide fertilization. As a result, our base estimates of the damage potential for methane and nitrous oxide that include carbon dioxide fertilization are twice their respective global warming potentials. Our base estimate of the damage potential of sulphur hexafluoride is similar to the one previous estimate, both almost three times the global warming potential.« less

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Foskolos, Andreas; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Moorby, Jon M; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001-2020.

PubMed

Ozawa, Sachiko; Clark, Samantha; Portnoy, Allison; Grewal, Simrun; Stack, Meghan L; Sinha, Anushua; Mirelman, Andrew; Franklin, Heather; Friberg, Ingrid K; Tam, Yvonne; Walker, Neff; Clark, Andrew; Ferrari, Matthew; Suraratdecha, Chutima; Sweet, Steven; Goldie, Sue J; Garske, Tini; Li, Michelle; Hansen, Peter M; Johnson, Hope L; Walker, Damian

2017-09-01

To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs - expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) - of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world's poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health.

Footprint (A Screening Model for Estimating the Area of a Plume Produced from Gasoline Containing Ethanol

EPA Science Inventory

FOOTPRINT is a simple and user-friendly screening model to estimate the length and surface area of BTEX plumes in ground water produced from a spill of gasoline that contains ethanol. Ethanol has a potential negative impact on the natural biodegradation of BTEX compounds in groun...

Results of rainfall simulation to estimate sediment-bound carbon and nitrogen loss from an Atlantic Coastal Plain (USDA) ultisol

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impact of erosion on soil and carbon loss and redistribution within landscapes is an important component for developing estimates of carbon sequestration potential, management plans to maintain soil quality, and transport of sediment bound agrochemicals. Soils of the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Pl...

FOOTPRINT: A New Tool to Predict the Potential Impact of Biofuels on BTEX Plumes

EPA Science Inventory

Ahsanuzzaman et al. (2008) used the Deeb et al. (2002) conceptual model to construct a simple screening model to estimate the area of a plume of benzene produced from a release of gasoline containing ethanol. The screening model estimates the plume area, or footprint of the plum...

Estimating nitrogen loading and far-field dispersal potential from background sources and coastal finfish aquaculture: A simple framework and case study in Atlantic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIver, R.; Milewski, I.; Loucks, R.; Smith, R.

2018-05-01

Far-field nutrient impacts associated with finfish aquaculture have been identified as a topic of concern for regulators, managers, scientists, and the public for over two decades but disentangling aquaculture impacts from those caused by other natural and anthropogenic sources has impeded the development of monitoring metrics and management plans. We apply a bulk, steady-state nitrogen loading model (NLM) framework to estimate the annual input of Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN) from point and non-point sources to the watershed surrounding Port Mouton Bay, Nova Scotia (Canada). We then use the results of the NLM together with estimates of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading from a sea-cage trout farm in the Bay and progressive vector diagrams to illustrate potential patterns of DIN dispersal from the trout farm. Our estimated anthropogenic nitrogen contribution to Port Mouton Bay from all terrestrial and atmospheric sources is ∼211,703 kg TDN/year with atmospheric deposition accounting for almost all (98.6%). At a stocking level of ∼400,000 rainbow trout, the Port Mouton Bay sea-cage farm increases the annual anthropogenic TDN loading to the bay by 14.4% or 30,400 kg. Depending on current flow rates, nitrogen flux from the trout farm can be more than double the background concentrations of TDN near the farm site. Although it is unlikely that nitrogen loading from this single fish farm is saturating the DIN requirements of the entire bay, progressive vector diagrams suggest that the dispersal potential may be insufficient to mitigate potential symptoms of eutrophication associated with nitrogen fluxes. We present an accessible and user-friendly tool for managers to estimate baseline nutrient loading in relation to aquaculture and our use of progressive vector diagrams illustrate a practical and simple method for characterizing potential nutrient dispersal based on local conditions and spatial scales. Our study joins numerous studies which have highlighted the need for more effective monitoring and assessment methods to improve the detection of aquaculture effects at far-field scales and to assess those effects in relation to other natural and anthropogenic factors impacting coastal habitats.

Impact of Stream Management Zones and Road Beautifying Buffers on Long-Term Fiber Supply in Georgia

Treesearch

Michal Zasada; Chris J. Cieszewski; Roger C. Lowe

2005-01-01

Streamside management zones (SMZs) and road beautifying buffers (RBBs) in Georgia have had an unknown impact on the available wood supply in the state. We used Forest Inventory and Analysis data, Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, Gap Analysis Program and other geographic information system data to estimate the potential impact of SMZs and RBBs in the current and future...

Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie

This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie

This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

Assessing the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Slater, Hannah C; Griffin, Jamie T; Ghani, Azra C; Okell, Lucy C

2016-01-06

Artemisinin and partner drug resistant malaria parasites have emerged in Southeast Asia. If resistance were to emerge in Africa it could have a devastating impact on malaria-related morbidity and mortality. This study estimates the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance on disease burden in Africa if it were to emerge. Using data from Asia and Africa, five possible artemisinin and partner drug resistance scenarios are characterized. An individual-based malaria transmission model is used to estimate the impact of each resistance scenario on clinical incidence and parasite prevalence across Africa. Artemisinin resistance is characterized by slow parasite clearance and partner drug resistance is associated with late clinical failure or late parasitological failure. Scenarios with high levels of recrudescent infections resulted in far greater increases in clinical incidence compared to scenarios with high levels of slow parasite clearance. Across Africa, it is estimated that artemisinin and partner drug resistance at levels similar to those observed in Oddar Meanchey province in Cambodia could result in an additional 78 million cases over a 5 year period, a 7% increase in cases compared to a scenario with no resistance. A scenario with high levels of slow clearance but no recrudescence resulted in an additional 10 million additional cases over the same period. Artemisinin resistance is potentially a more pressing concern than partner drug resistance due to the lack of viable alternatives. However, it is predicted that a failing partner drug will result in greater increases in malaria cases and morbidity than would be observed from artemisinin resistance only.

The Estimation and Inclusion of Presenteeism Costs in Applied Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

2017-03-01

Given the significant costs of reduced productivity (presenteeism) in comparison to absenteeism, and overall societal costs, presenteeism has a potentially important role to play in economic evaluations. However, these costs are often excluded. The objective of this study is to review applied cost of illness studies and economic evaluations to identify valuation methods used for, and impact of including presenteeism costs in practice. A structured systematic review was carried out to explore (i) the extent to which presenteeism has been applied in cost of illness studies and economic evaluations and (ii) the overall impact of including presenteeism on overall costs and outcomes. Potential articles were identified by searching Medline, PsycINFO and NHS EED databases. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from economic evaluations and cost of illness studies incorporating presenteeism costs. A total of 28 studies were included in the systematic review which also demonstrated that presenteeism costs are rarely included in full economic evaluations. Estimation and monetisation methods differed between the instruments. The impact of disease on presenteeism whilst in paid work is high. The potential impact of presenteeism costs needs to be highlighted and greater consideration should be given to including these in economic evaluations and cost of illness studies. The importance of including presenteeism costs when conducting economic evaluation from a societal perspective should be emphasised in national economic guidelines and more methodological work is required to improve the practical application of presenteeism instruments to generate productivity cost estimates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change impact on operation of dams and hydroelectricity generation in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsani, N.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Fekete, B. M.

2016-12-01

We are using a large-scale, high-resolution, fully integrated hydrological/reservoir/hydroelectricity model to investigate the impact of climate change on the operation of 11037 dams and generation of electricity from 375 hydroelectric power plants in the Northeastern United States. Moreover, we estimate the hydropower potential of the region by energizing the existing non-powered dams and then studying the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential. We show that climate change increases the impact of dams on the hydrology of the region. Warmer temperatures produce shorter frozen periods, earlier snowmelt and elevated evapotranspiration rates, which when combined with changes in precipitation, are projected to increase water availability in winter but reduce it during summer. As a result, the water that is stored by dams will be more than ever a necessary part of the routine water systems operations to compensate for these seasonal imbalances. The function of dams as emergency water storage for creating drought resiliency will mostly diminish in the future. Building more dams to cope with the local impacts of climate change on water resources and to offset the increased drought vulnerability may thus be inevitable. Annual hydroelectricity generation in the region is 41 Twh. Our estimate of the annual hydropower potential of non-powered dams adds up to 350 Twh. Climate change may reduce hydropower potential from non-powered dams by up to 13% and reduce current hydroelectricity generation by up to 8% annually. Hydroelectricity generation and hydropower potential may increase in winter months and decline in months of summer and fall. These changes call for recalibration of dam operations and may raise conflict of interests in multipurpose dams.

The economic benefits of reducing physical inactivity: an Australian example

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Physical inactivity has major impacts on health and productivity. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity in the 2008 Australian adult population. The economic benefits were estimated as 'opportunity cost savings', which represent resources utilized in the treatment of preventable disease that are potentially available for re-direction to another purpose from fewer incident cases of disease occurring in communities. Methods Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 10% feasible, reduction target for physical inactivity from current Australian levels (70%). Lifetime cohort health benefits were estimated as fewer incident cases of inactivity-related diseases; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex. Opportunity costs were estimated as health sector cost impacts, as well as paid and unpaid production gains and leisure impacts from fewer disease events associated with reduced physical inactivity. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of physically active and inactive adults, and valued using the friction cost approach. The impact of an improvement in health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modeled from time use survey data, as applied to the exposed and non-exposed population subgroups and valued by suitable proxy. Potential costs associated with interventions to increase physical activity were not included. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariate sensitivity analyses were undertaken to provide information on the strength of the conclusions. Results A 10% reduction in physical inactivity would result in 6,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 2,000 fewer deaths, 25,000 fewer DALYs and provide gains in working days (114,000), days of home-based production (180,000) while conferring a AUD96 million reduction in health sector costs. Lifetime potential opportunity cost savings in workforce production (AUD12 million), home-based production (AUD71 million) and leisure-based production (AUD79 million) was estimated (total AUD162 million 95% uncertainty interval AUD136 million, AUD196 million). Conclusions Opportunity cost savings and health benefits conservatively estimated from a reduction in population-level physical inactivity may be substantial. The largest savings will benefit individuals in the form of unpaid production and leisure gains, followed by the health sector, business and government. PMID:21943093

The economic benefits of reducing physical inactivity: an Australian example.

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Cumming, Toby B; Sheppard, Lauren; Pearce, Dora C; Carter, Rob; Magnus, Anne

2011-09-24

Physical inactivity has major impacts on health and productivity. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity in the 2008 Australian adult population. The economic benefits were estimated as 'opportunity cost savings', which represent resources utilized in the treatment of preventable disease that are potentially available for re-direction to another purpose from fewer incident cases of disease occurring in communities. Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 10% feasible, reduction target for physical inactivity from current Australian levels (70%). Lifetime cohort health benefits were estimated as fewer incident cases of inactivity-related diseases; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex. Opportunity costs were estimated as health sector cost impacts, as well as paid and unpaid production gains and leisure impacts from fewer disease events associated with reduced physical inactivity. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of physically active and inactive adults, and valued using the friction cost approach. The impact of an improvement in health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modeled from time use survey data, as applied to the exposed and non-exposed population subgroups and valued by suitable proxy. Potential costs associated with interventions to increase physical activity were not included. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariate sensitivity analyses were undertaken to provide information on the strength of the conclusions. A 10% reduction in physical inactivity would result in 6,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 2,000 fewer deaths, 25,000 fewer DALYs and provide gains in working days (114,000), days of home-based production (180,000) while conferring a AUD96 million reduction in health sector costs. Lifetime potential opportunity cost savings in workforce production (AUD12 million), home-based production (AUD71 million) and leisure-based production (AUD79 million) was estimated (total AUD162 million 95% uncertainty interval AUD136 million, AUD196 million). Opportunity cost savings and health benefits conservatively estimated from a reduction in population-level physical inactivity may be substantial. The largest savings will benefit individuals in the form of unpaid production and leisure gains, followed by the health sector, business and government.

Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wein, Anne; Rose, Adam; Sue Wing, Ian; Wei, Dan

2013-01-01

This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. An appropriate measure of the economic impacts on the California economy for the SAFRR tsunami scenario is the reduction in GDP. The economic impacts are first calculated without resilience, the ability of the economy to adjust to disruptions in ways that mute potential negative impacts. There are many types of resilience, including using existing inventories of materials, using unused capacity, conserving inputs, substituting for disrupted supplies, recapturing production after the disruption is restored, and many others. A method for estimating resilience, identified in the port system and sectors affected by property damages, is applied to indicate potential reductions of direct and total economic impacts. In this SAFRR tsunami scenario analysis of economic impacts to California, we implement established techniques used to model the economic impacts for two previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scenarios: the southern California Shakeout earthquake (Rose and others, 2011) and the California ARkStorm severe winter storm (Sue Wing and others, written commun., 2013). For the SAFRR tsunami scenario, we reviewed the relevant studies that assess economic impacts from previous tsunami events affecting California and elsewhere and estimate the economic impacts of potential tsunami and other threats to POLA and POLB. To our knowledge, assessment of impacts to the California economy from distant source tsunamis does not exist. Previous tsunamis, including those from the 1960 Chile earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 2008 Chile earthquake and the 2011 Japan earthquake, had only relatively minor or very localized severe damage (such as that in Crescent City in 1964), and no studies of the economic impacts were completed. A rare study of the economic impacts of a tsunami event has recently been produced for the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami (Kajitani and others, 2013). Quarterly declines in Japan’s GDP are observed to peak at ‒1.63 percent in the second quarter after the event and stagnate for the rest of the year. The majority of the economic impacts are attributed to the tsunami rather than the earthquake. The hardest hit sectors are identified as agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and tourism. Other relevant studies have focused on the economic impacts of threats that close POLA and POLB. We find one analysis of a potential tsunami scenario affecting the California economy through disruption of port operations. Borrero and others (2005) estimated economic impacts to the southern California economy of $7 to $40 billion from a locally generated tsunami that closes POLA and POLB for as much as 1 year. There have also been several studies of the economic impacts of non-tsunami events affecting POLA and POLB. Analyses of an 11-day labor lockout produced a range of estimated national impacts of as much as $1.94 billion/day (Park and others 2008, Martin Associates 2001). Examination of a potential terrorist attack that closes the San Pedro port for 1 month yielded a $29 billion impact to the California economy (Park, 2008). These studies have reinforced the importance of recognizing economic resilience in economic impact analyses. Hall (2004) criticized the upper-end estimate of national economic impacts from the labor lockout based on model shortcomings that neglected short-run substitution behavior and fixed the long-run economic behaviors. Following the 2011 Japanese tsunami, resilience was observed in the forms of rapid recovery of manufacturing sectors, energy conservation, and insurance (Kajitani and others, 2013).

Seasonal homes and natural resources: patterns of use and impact in Michigan.

Treesearch

Daniel J. Stynes; JiaJia Zheng; Susan I. Stewart

1997-01-01

Describes patterns of seasonal home ownerships and use in northern lower Michigan, including recreational use of nearby public and private lands and potential use of the seasonal home as a retirement home. Estimates economic impacts associated with seasonal home related spending in the 33 counties of northern lower Michigan.

The Economic Impact of UUM International Students' Expenditure on Business Activities in Changlun

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hassan, Sallahuddin; Othman, Zalila; Sabudin, Noor Sa'adah; Mohaideen, Zalina Mohd; Hidthir, Mohamad Helmi

2018-01-01

This study examines the potential impact from the expenditure patterns of UUM international students in Changlun on local development particularly among Changlun businesses. For this purpose, the international students' expenditure patterns in Changlun are examined in terms of the estimated monthly expenditure, the location of spending and the…

Climate change impacts on runoff, sediment, and nutrient loads in an agricultural watershed in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Projected climate change can impact various aspects of agricultural systems, including the nutrient and sediment loads exported from agricultural fields. This study evaluated the potential changes in runoff, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads using projected climate estimates from 2041 – 2070 ...

Red imported fire ant impacts on upland arthropods in Southern Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Epperson, D.M.; Allen, Craig R.

2010-01-01

Red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) have negative impacts on a broad array of invertebrate species. We investigated the impacts of fire ants on the upland arthropod community on 20???40 ha study sites in southern Mississippi. Study sites were sampled from 19972000 before, during, and after fire ant bait treatments to reduce fire ant populations. Fire ant abundance was assessed with bait transects on all sites, and fire ant population indices were estimated on a subset of study sites. Species richness and diversity of other ant species was also assessed from bait transects. Insect biomass and diversity was determined from light trap samples. Following treatments, fire ant abundance and population indices were significantly reduced, and ant species diversity and richness were greater on treated sites. Arthropod biomass, species diversity and species richness estimated from light trap samples were negatively correlated with fire ant abundance, but there were no observable treatment effects. Solenopsis invicta has the potential to negatively impact native arthropod communities resulting in a potential loss of both species and function.

The Very Light Jet Arrives: Stakeholders and Their Perceptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cobb, Richard; Thomas, James L.; Cobb, Laura A.

2007-01-01

This article summarizes the initial results of a systematic study that addressed issues related to the direct and indirect market impact of very light jet (VLJ) aircraft. Although reports in the popular press offer wide-ranging estimates of the impact that these new jets will have on existing air travel, no systematic data exists that may be of use to all potential stakeholders. This introductory study serves to describe potential VLJ users and their perceptions of this new type of aircraft.

Radiological impact of 2016 operations at the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Minter, K. L.; Jannik, G. T.; Dixon, K. M.

This report presents the environmental dose assessment methods and the estimated potential doses to the offsite public from 2016 Savannah River Site (SRS) air and liquid radioactive releases. Also documented are potential doses from special-case exposure scenarios, such as the consumption of wildlife or goat milk.

Potential economic impact assessment for cattle parasites in Mexico review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Here, economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis. The main factors taken into consideration for this assessment included the total number of animals at risk, potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production or weight gain, and records of cond...

Potential economic impact of parasites on the cattle industry of Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Parasitic diseases remain an important factor affecting the productivity of cattle in Mexico. Economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis considering the total number of animals at risk and the potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production,...

Potential Climate-Induced Runoff Changes and Associated Uncertainty in Four Pacific Northwest Estuaries

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a larger investigation into potential impacts of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries. These were the Coquille River estuary, the South Slough of Coos Bay, and the Yaquina Bay...

A low-cost uterine balloon tamponade for management of postpartum hemorrhage: modeling the potential impact on maternal mortality and morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Herrick, Tara; Mvundura, Mercy; Burke, Thomas F; Abu-Haydar, Elizabeth

2017-11-13

Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is the leading cause of maternal deaths worldwide. This study sought to quantify the potential health impact (morbidity and mortality reductions) that a low-cost uterine balloon tamponade (UBT) could have on women suffering from uncontrolled PPH due to uterine atony in sub-Saharan Africa. The Maternal and Neonatal Directed Assessment of Technology (MANDATE) model was used to estimate maternal deaths, surgeries averted, and cases of severe anemia prevented through UBT use among women with PPH who receive a uterotonic drug but fail this therapy in a health facility. Estimates were generated for the year 2018. The main outcome measures were lives saved, surgeries averted, and severe anemia prevented. The base case model estimated that widespread use of a low-cost UBT in clinics and hospitals could save 6547 lives (an 11% reduction in maternal deaths), avert 10,823 surgeries, and prevent 634 severe anemia cases in sub-Saharan Africa annually. A low-cost UBT has a strong potential to save lives and reduce morbidity. It can also potentially reduce costly downstream interventions for women who give birth in a health care facility. This technology may be especially useful for meeting global targets for reducing maternal mortality as identified in Sustainable Development Goal 3.

Carpooling: status and potential

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kendall, D.C.

1975-06-01

Studies were conducted to analyze the status and potential of work-trip carpooling as a means of achieving more efficient use of the automobile. Current and estimated maximum potential levels of carpooling are presented together with analyses revealing characteristics of carpool trips, incentives, impacts of increased carpooling and issues related to carpool matching services. National survey results indicate the average auto occupancy for urban work-trip is 1.2 passengers per auto. This value, and average carpool occupancy of 2.5, have been relatively stable over the last five years. An increase in work-trip occupancy from 1.2 to 1.8 would require a 100% increasemore » in the number of carpoolers. A model was developed to predict the maximum potential level of carpooling in an urban area. Results from applying the model to the Boston region were extrapolated to estimate a maximum nationwide potential between 47 and 71% of peak period auto commuters. Maximum benefits of increased carpooling include up to 10% savings in auto fuel consumption. A technique was developed for estimating the number of participants required in a carpool matching service to achieve a chosen level of matching among respondents, providing insight into tradeoffs between employer and regional or centralized matching services. Issues recommended for future study include incentive policies and their impacts on other modes, and the evaluation of new and ongoing carpool matching services. (11 references) (GRA)« less

Potential for reduced methane and carbon dioxide emissions from livestock and pasture management in the tropics

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K.; Herrero, Mario

2010-01-01

We estimate the potential reductions in methane and carbon dioxide emissions from several livestock and pasture management options in the mixed and rangeland-based production systems in the tropics. The impacts of adoption of improved pastures, intensifying ruminant diets, changes in land-use practices, and changing breeds of large ruminants on the production of methane and carbon dioxide are calculated for two levels of adoption: complete adoption, to estimate the upper limit to reductions in these greenhouse gases (GHGs), and optimistic but plausible adoption rates taken from the literature, where these exist. Results are expressed both in GHG per ton of livestock product and in Gt CO2-eq. We estimate that the maximum mitigation potential of these options in the land-based livestock systems in the tropics amounts to approximately 7% of the global agricultural mitigation potential to 2030. Using historical adoption rates from the literature, the plausible mitigation potential of these options could contribute approximately 4% of global agricultural GHG mitigation. This could be worth on the order of $1.3 billion per year at a price of $20 per t CO2-eq. The household-level and sociocultural impacts of some of these options warrant further study, however, because livestock have multiple roles in tropical systems that often go far beyond their productive utility. PMID:20823225

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site.

PubMed

Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Bjerg, Poul L

2010-05-01

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public health impacts of secondary particulate formation from aromatic hydrocarbons in gasoline

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Aromatic hydrocarbons emitted from gasoline-powered vehicles contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), which increases the atmospheric mass concentration of fine particles (PM2.5). Here we estimate the public health burden associated with exposures to the subset of PM2.5 that originates from vehicle emissions of aromatics under business as usual conditions. Methods The PM2.5 contribution from gasoline aromatics is estimated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the results are compared to ambient measurements from the literature. Marginal PM2.5 annualized concentration changes are used to calculate premature mortalities using concentration-response functions, with a value of mortality reduction approach used to monetize the social cost of mortality impacts. Morbidity impacts are qualitatively discussed. Results Modeled aromatic SOA concentrations from CMAQ fall short of ambient measurements by approximately a factor of two nationwide, with strong regional differences. After accounting for this model bias, the estimated public health impacts from exposure to PM2.5 originating from aromatic hydrocarbons in gasoline lead to a central estimate of approximately 3800 predicted premature mortalities nationwide, with estimates ranging from 1800 to over 4700 depending on the specific concentration-response function used. These impacts are associated with total social costs of $28.2B, and range from $13.6B to $34.9B in 2006$. Conclusions These preliminary quantitative estimates indicate particulates from vehicular emissions of aromatic hydrocarbons demonstrate a nontrivial public health burden. The results provide a baseline from which to evaluate potential public health impacts of changes in gasoline composition. PMID:23425393

The health benefits of selective taxation as an economic instrument in relation to IHD and nutrition-related cancers.

PubMed

Holm, Astrid L; Laursen, Mai-Britt; Koch, Maria; Jensen, Jørgen D; Diderichsen, Finn

2013-12-01

The present study aimed to estimate the health benefits of selective taxation of healthy and unhealthy food commodities in relation to CVD and nutrition-related cancers. The potential health effects of a selective taxation scenario were estimated as changes in the burden of disease, measured by disability-adjusted life years, from health outcomes affected by the changes in food intake. The change in burden of a disease was calculated as the change in incidence of the disease due to a modified exposure level, using the potential impact fraction. Estimates of relative risk for the associations between various foods and relevant diseases were found through a literature search and used in the calculation of potential impact fractions. The study was based in Denmark, estimating the health effects of a Danish selective taxation scenario. The potential health effects of selective taxation were modelled for the adult Danish population. Halving the rate of value-added tax on fruit and vegetables and increasing the tax on fats would result in moderate reductions in the burden of disease from IHD, ischaemic stroke, and colorectal, lung and breast cancer (0·4–2·4 % change). The largest effect could be obtained through increased intake of fruit and vegetables (0·9–2·4 %). Applying selective taxation to healthy and unhealthy foods can moderately reduce the burden of disease in the Danish population.

ReachScan - an Exposure Assessment Model

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

ReachScan estimates surface water concentrations downstream from industrial sites to assess impacts on the aquatic environment and potential dose rates for humans exposed via ingestion of drinking water and fish.

Sodium intake in US ethnic subgroups and potential impact of a new sodium reduction technology: NHANES Dietary Modeling.

PubMed

Fulgoni, Victor L; Agarwal, Sanjiv; Spence, Lisa; Samuel, Priscilla

2014-12-18

Because excessive dietary sodium intake is a major contributor to hypertension, a reduction in dietary sodium has been recommended for the US population. Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010 data, we estimated current sodium intake in US population ethnic subgroups and modeled the potential impact of a new sodium reduction technology on sodium intake. NHANES 2007-2010 data were analyzed using The National Cancer Institute method to estimate usual intake in population subgroups. Potential impact of SODA-LO® Salt Microspheres sodium reduction technology on sodium intake was modeled using suggested sodium reductions of 20-30% in 953 foods and assuming various market penetrations. SAS 9.2, SUDAAN 11, and NHANES survey weights were used in all calculations with assessment across age, gender and ethnic groups. Current sodium intake across all population subgroups exceeds the Dietary Guidelines 2010 recommendations and has not changed during the last decade. However, sodium intake measured as a function of food intake has decreased significantly during the last decade for all ethnicities. "Grain Products" and "Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Mixtures" contribute about 2/3rd of total sodium intake. Sodium reduction, using SODA-LO® Salt Microspheres sodium reduction technology (with 100% market penetration) was estimated to be 185-323 mg/day or 6.3-8.4% of intake depending upon age, gender and ethnic group. Current sodium intake in US ethnic subgroups exceeds the recommendations and sodium reduction technologies could potentially help reduce dietary sodium intake among those groups.

Estimating the impact of grouping misclassification on risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Environmental health risk assessments of chemical mixtures that rely on component approaches often begin by grouping the chemicals of concern according to toxicological similarity. Approaches that assume dose addition typically are used for groups of similarly-acting chemicals and those that assume response addition are used for groups of independently acting chemicals. Grouping criteria for similarity can include a common adverse outcome pathway (AOP) and similarly shaped dose-response curves, with the latter used in the relative potency factor (RPF) method for estimating mixture response. Independence of toxic action is generally assumed if there is evidence that the chemicals act by different mechanisms. Several questions arise about the potential for misclassification error in the mixture risk prediction. If a common AOP has been established, how much error could there be if the same dose-response curve shape is assumed for all chemicals, when the shapes truly differ and, conversely, what is the error potential if different shapes are assumed when they are not? In particular, how do those concerns impact the choice of index chemical and uncertainty of the RPF-estimated mixture response? What is the quantitative impact if dose additivity is assumed when complete or partial independence actually holds and vice versa? These concepts and implications will be presented with numerical examples in the context of uncertainty of the RPF-estimated mixture response,

Are environmental risk estimations linked to the actual environmental impact? Application to an oil handling facility (NE Spain).

PubMed

Valdor, Paloma F; Puente, Araceli; Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Juanes, José A

2017-01-30

The environmental risk analysis of aquatic systems includes the evaluation of the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. In harbor areas, pollution is provided by a complex mixture of substances with different levels of toxicity, persistence and bioaccumulation, which complicates the hazards characterization and their multiple effects. A study of the relationship between the environmental impact and the environmental risk assessment at a specific isolated oil handling facility was undertaken. The environmental risk of the oil handling facility, considering the consequences of specific pollutants, was estimated and the associated environmental impact was quantified based on a 'weights of evidence' approach. The contamination quantified at the potentially affected area around the monobuoy of Tarragona has proved to be related with environmental risk estimations but the lines of evidence obtained do not allow us to assert that the activity developed at this facility has an associated environmental impact. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of an equality constraint on the class-specific residual variances in regression mixtures: A Monte Carlo simulation study

PubMed Central

Kim, Minjung; Lamont, Andrea E.; Jaki, Thomas; Feaster, Daniel; Howe, George; Van Horn, M. Lee

2015-01-01

Regression mixture models are a novel approach for modeling heterogeneous effects of predictors on an outcome. In the model building process residual variances are often disregarded and simplifying assumptions made without thorough examination of the consequences. This simulation study investigated the impact of an equality constraint on the residual variances across latent classes. We examine the consequence of constraining the residual variances on class enumeration (finding the true number of latent classes) and parameter estimates under a number of different simulation conditions meant to reflect the type of heterogeneity likely to exist in applied analyses. Results showed that bias in class enumeration increased as the difference in residual variances between the classes increased. Also, an inappropriate equality constraint on the residual variances greatly impacted estimated class sizes and showed the potential to greatly impact parameter estimates in each class. Results suggest that it is important to make assumptions about residual variances with care and to carefully report what assumptions were made. PMID:26139512

Not just for poor kids: The impact of universal free school breakfast on meal participation and student outcomes

PubMed Central

Leos-Urbel, Jacob; Schwartz, Amy Ellen; Weinstein, Meryle; Corcoran, Sean

2013-01-01

This paper examines the impact of the implementation of a universal free school breakfast policy on meals program participation, attendance, and academic achievement. In 2003, New York City made school breakfast free for all students regardless of income, while increasing the price of lunch for those ineligible for meal subsidies. Using a difference-indifference estimation strategy, we derive plausibly causal estimates of the policy’s impact by exploiting within and between group variation in school meal pricing before and after the policy change. Our estimates suggest that the policy resulted in small increases in breakfast participation both for students who experienced a decrease in the price of breakfast and for free-lunch eligible students who experienced no price change. The latter suggests that universal provision may alter behavior through mechanisms other than price, highlighting the potential merits of universal provision over targeted services. We find limited evidence of policy impacts on academic outcomes. PMID:24465073

Economic Impacts of Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Agro-terrorism in the United States: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Rose, Adam; Bumsoo, Lee

2013-01-01

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus has high agro-terrorism potential because it is contagious, can be easily transmitted via inanimate objects and can be spread by wind. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results in massive slaughtering of animals (for disease control) and disruptions in meat supply chains and trade, with potentially large economic losses. Although the United States has been FMD-free since 1929, the potential of FMD as a deliberate terrorist weapon calls for estimates of the physical and economic damage that could result from an outbreak. This paper estimates the economic impacts of three alternative scenariosmore » of potential FMD attacks using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy. The three scenarios range from a small outbreak successfully contained within a state to a large multi-state attack resulting in slaughtering of 30 percent of the national livestock. Overall, the value of total output losses in our simulations range between $37 billion (0.15% of 2006 baseline economic output) and $228 billion (0.92%). Major impacts stem from the supply constraint on livestock due to massive animal slaughtering. As expected, the economic losses are heavily concentrated in agriculture and food manufacturing sectors, with losses ranging from $23 billion to $61 billion in the two industries.« less

Annual losses from disease in Pacific Northwest forests.

Treesearch

T.W Childs; K.R. Shea

1967-01-01

This report presents current estimates of annual disease impact on forest productivity of Oregon and Washington. It is concerned exclusively with losses of timber volumes and of potential timber growth in today's forests.Annual loss from disease in this region is estimated at 3,133 million board feet or 403 million cubic feet. This is about 13 percent...

Methods of mesophyll conductance estimation: its impact on key biochemical parameters and photosynthetic limitations in phosphorus-stressed soybean across CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Photosynthetic potential in C3 plants is largely limited by CO2 diffusion through stomata (Ls) and mesophyll (Lm) and photo-biochemical (Lb) processes. Accurate estimation of mesophyll conductance (gm) using gas exchange (GE) and chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) parameters of the photosynthetic proces...

A review of the challenges and opportunities in estimating above ground forest biomass using tree-level models

Treesearch

Hailemariam Temesgen; David Affleck; Krishna Poudel; Andrew Gray; John Sessions

2015-01-01

Accurate biomass measurements and analyses are critical components in quantifying carbon stocks and sequestration rates, assessing potential impacts due to climate change, locating bio-energy processing plants, and mapping and planning fuel treatments. To this end, biomass equations will remain a key component of future carbon measurements and estimation. As...

Potential for Improved Crop Yield Prediction Through Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture Data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop yield estimates have a strong impact on dealing with food shortages and on market demand and supply; these estimates are critical for decision-making processes by the U.S. Government, policy makers, stakeholders, etc. Most of the decision making is based on forecasts provided by the U.S. Depart...

Life Cycle Water Consumption and Wastewater Generation Impacts of a Marcellus Shale Gas Well

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

This study estimates the life cycle water consumption and wastewater generation impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well from its construction to end of life. Direct water consumption at the well site was assessed by analysis of data from approximately 500 individual well completion reports collected in 2010 by the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Indirect water consumption for supply chain production at each life cycle stage of the well was estimated using the economic input–output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) method. Life cycle direct and indirect water quality pollution impacts were assessed and compared using the tool for the reduction and assessment of chemical and other environmental impacts (TRACI). Wastewater treatment cost was proposed as an additional indicator for water quality pollution impacts from shale gas well wastewater. Four water management scenarios for Marcellus shale well wastewater were assessed: current conditions in Pennsylvania; complete discharge; direct reuse and desalination; and complete desalination. The results show that under the current conditions, an average Marcellus shale gas well consumes 20 000 m3 (with a range from 6700 to 33 000 m3) of freshwater per well over its life cycle excluding final gas utilization, with 65% direct water consumption at the well site and 35% indirect water consumption across the supply chain production. If all flowback and produced water is released into the environment without treatment, direct wastewater from a Marcellus shale gas well is estimated to have 300–3000 kg N-eq eutrophication potential, 900–23 000 kg 2,4D-eq freshwater ecotoxicity potential, 0–370 kg benzene-eq carcinogenic potential, and 2800–71 000 MT toluene-eq noncarcinogenic potential. The potential toxicity of the chemicals in the wastewater from the well site exceeds those associated with supply chain production, except for carcinogenic effects. If all the Marcellus shale well wastewater is treated to surface discharge standards by desalination, $59 000–270 000 per well would be required. The life cycle study results indicate that when gas end use is not considered hydraulic fracturing is the largest contributor to the life cycle water impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well. PMID:24380628

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Schnase, J.L.

2006-01-01

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Evaluating the impact of the HIV pandemic on measles control and elimination.

PubMed

Helfand, Rita F; Moss, William J; Harpaz, Rafael; Scott, Susana; Cutts, Felicity

2005-05-01

To estimate the impact of the HIV pandemic on vaccine-acquired population immunity to measles virus because high levels of population immunity are required to eliminate transmission of measles virus in large geographical areas, and HIV infection can reduce the efficacy of measles vaccination. A literature review was conducted to estimate key parameters relating to the potential impact of HIV infection on the epidemiology of measles in sub-Saharan Africa; parameters included the prevalence of HIV, child mortality, perinatal HIV transmission rates and protective immune responses to measles vaccination. These parameter estimates were incorporated into a simple model, applicable to regions that have a high prevalence of HIV, to estimate the potential impact of HIV infection on population immunity against measles. The model suggests that the HIV pandemic should not introduce an insurmountable barrier to measles control and elimination, in part because higher rates of primary and secondary vaccine failure among HIV-infected children are counteracted by their high mortality rate. The HIV pandemic could result in a 2-3% increase in the proportion of the birth cohort susceptible to measles, and more frequent supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) may be necessary to control or eliminate measles. In the model the optimal interval between SIAs was most influenced by the coverage rate for routine measles vaccination. The absence of a second opportunity for vaccination resulted in the greatest increase in the number of susceptible children. These results help explain the initial success of measles elimination efforts in southern Africa, where measles control has been achieved in a setting of high HIV prevalence.

Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001–2020

PubMed Central

Clark, Samantha; Portnoy, Allison; Grewal, Simrun; Stack, Meghan L; Sinha, Anushua; Mirelman, Andrew; Franklin, Heather; Friberg, Ingrid K; Tam, Yvonne; Walker, Neff; Clark, Andrew; Ferrari, Matthew; Suraratdecha, Chutima; Sweet, Steven; Goldie, Sue J; Garske, Tini; Li, Michelle; Hansen, Peter M; Johnson, Hope L; Walker, Damian

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Methods We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs – expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) – of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. Findings We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. Conclusion By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world’s poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health. PMID:28867843

The impact of a national poverty reduction program on the characteristics of sex partners among Kenyan adolescents.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Molly; Pettifor, Audrey; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Halpern, Carolyn Tucker; Handa, Sudhanshu

2014-02-01

Cash transfer programs have the potential to prevent the spread of HIV, particularly among adolescents. One mechanism through which these programs may work is by influencing the characteristics of the people adolescents choose as sex partners. We examined the four-year impact of a Kenyan cash transfer program on partner age, partner enrollment in school, and transactional sex-based relationships among 684 adolescents. We found no significant impact of the program on partner characteristics overall, though estimates varied widely by gender, age, schooling, and economic status. Results highlight the importance of context in exploring the potential HIV preventive effects of cash transfers.

Costs of abandoned coal mine reclamation and associated recreation benefits in Ohio.

PubMed

Mishra, Shruti K; Hitzhusen, Frederick J; Sohngen, Brent L; Guldmann, Jean-Michel

2012-06-15

Two hundred years of coal mining in Ohio have degraded land and water resources, imposing social costs on its citizens. An interdisciplinary approach employing hydrology, geographic information systems, and a recreation visitation function model, is used to estimate the damages from upstream coal mining to lakes in Ohio. The estimated recreational damages to five of the coal-mining-impacted lakes, using dissolved sulfate as coal-mining-impact indicator, amount to $21 Million per year. Post-reclamation recreational benefits from reducing sulfate concentrations by 6.5% and 15% in the five impacted lakes were estimated to range from $1.89 to $4.92 Million per year, with a net present value ranging from $14.56 Million to $37.79 Million. A benefit costs analysis (BCA) of recreational benefits and coal mine reclamation costs provides some evidence for potential Pareto improvement by investing limited resources in reclamation projects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement Error and Environmental Epidemiology: A Policy Perspective

PubMed Central

Edwards, Jessie K.; Keil, Alexander P.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review Measurement error threatens public health by producing bias in estimates of the population impact of environmental exposures. Quantitative methods to account for measurement bias can improve public health decision making. Recent findings We summarize traditional and emerging methods to improve inference under a standard perspective, in which the investigator estimates an exposure response function, and a policy perspective, in which the investigator directly estimates population impact of a proposed intervention. Summary Under a policy perspective, the analysis must be sensitive to errors in measurement of factors that modify the effect of exposure on outcome, must consider whether policies operate on the true or measured exposures, and may increasingly need to account for potentially dependent measurement error of two or more exposures affected by the same policy or intervention. Incorporating approaches to account for measurement error into such a policy perspective will increase the impact of environmental epidemiology. PMID:28138941

A Strategy for Assessing the Impact of Time-Varying Family Risk Factors on High School Dropout

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randolph, Karen A.; Fraser, Mark W.; Orthner, Dennis K.

2006-01-01

Human behavior is dynamic, influenced by changing situations over time. Yet the impact of the dynamic nature of important explanatory variables on outcomes has only recently begun to be estimated in developmental models. Using a risk factor perspective, this article demonstrates the potential benefits of regressing time-varying outcome measures on…

A Randomized Trial Assessing the Impact of a Personal Printed Feedback Portrait on Statin Prescribing in Primary Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dormuth, Colin R.; Carney, Greg; Taylor, Suzanne; Bassett, Ken; Maclure, Malcolm

2012-01-01

Introduction: Knowledge translation (KT) initiatives have the potential to improve prescribing quality and produce savings that exceed the cost of the KT program itself, including the cost of evaluation using pragmatic study methods. Our objective was to measure the impact and estimated savings resulting from the distribution of individualized…

Using Google Scholar to Estimate the Impact of Journal Articles in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Aalst, Jan

2010-01-01

This article discusses the potential of Google Scholar as an alternative or complement to the Web of Science and Scopus for measuring the impact of journal articles in education. Three handbooks on research in science education, language education, and educational technology were used to identify a sample of 112 accomplished scholars. Google…

The Impact of Summer Learning Loss on Measures of School Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McEachin, Andrew; Atteberry, Allison

2017-01-01

State and federal accountability policies are predicated on the ability to estimate valid and reliable measures of school impacts on student learning. The typical spring-to-spring testing window potentially conflates the amount of learning that occurs during the school year with learning that occurs during the summer. We use a unique dataset to…

Perception-based Impact upon Community Resilience in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, S.; Li, H.

2008-05-01

In the event of natural disasters, recovery from the direct and indirect effects of the disaster phenomena are topics of most community emergency response plans. In addition to the direct and indirect impacts that represent changes in activity that can be tied directly to an event, additional perception-based impacts are possible. Usually these perception-based impacts are larger and more difficult to measure or mitigate than direct impacts. These impacts are based primarily on the affected population's changes in attitudes toward a particular neighborhood or region based on fear of a future event or future losses. These impacts can be motivated by fear of future storms or man-caused events, lingering toxic contamination that may or may not have been removed, and any other behavior by individuals that cannot be explained by actual events or calculated measures of risk or uncertainty. Perception-based impacts are often difficult to estimate directly. In many instaces, case studies of comparable events are used to attempt to develop judgemental estimates of possible future impacts on the area of question. For example, impacts from such events as Love Canal, the Three Mile Island nucear accident, the September 11 attacks, and the Goiana radioactive material spill are used to get a sense of the severity and duration of possible perception-based impacts of a particular event. Perception-based impacts can include additional losses in property value, losses in population (or reduced rates of population due to lower migration rates) that cannot be attributed to actual economic and demographic changes that can be tied to the event directly. Additional perception-based impacts can include long-term worker absenteeism by an asymptomatic public (i.e., the worried well), losses in tourism, losses in cargo at transportation hubs due to fears by shippers and recipients who choose alternative modes of transportation for shipping goods into the affected area. Another proxy for perception-based impacts from man-caused events can be additional security expenditures by government, the private sector, and individuals. This presentation will describe potential methodologies for estimating or anticipating these potential events for generic planning scenarios.

Potential Air Emission Impacts of Cellulosic Ethanol Production at Seven Demonstration Refineries in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

This paper reports on the estimated potential air emissions as found in air permits and supporting documentation for seven of the first group of pre-commercial or Ademonstration@ U.S. cellulosic ethanol refineries currently operating or planning to operate in the near future. Th...

Predicting Residential Exposure to Phthalate Plasticizer Emitted from Vinyl Flooring: Sensitivity, Uncertainty, and Implications for Biomonitoring

EPA Science Inventory

Given the ubiquitous nature of phthalates in the environment and the potential for adverse human health impacts, there is a need to understand the potential human exposure. A three-compartment model is developed to estimate the emission rate of di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) f...

A review of potential tsunami impacts to the Suez Canal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finkl, C.; Pelinovsky, E.

2012-04-01

Destructive tsunamis in the eastern Mediterranean and Red seas, induced by earthquakes and/or volcanic activity, pose potential hazards to docked seaport shipping and fixed harbor infrastructure as well as to in-transit international shipping within the Suez Canal. Potential vulnerabilities of the Suez Canal to possible tsunami impacts are reviewed by reference to geological, historical, archaeoseismological, and anecdotal data. Tsunami catalogues and databases compiled by earlier researchers are perused to estimate potential return periods for tsunami events that could affect directly the Suez Canal and its closely associated operational infrastructures. Analysis of these various records indicates a centurial return period, or multiples thereof, for long-wave repetition that could generally affect the Nile Delta. It is estimated that tsunami waves 2 m high would have a breaking length about 5 km down Canal whereas a 10 m wave break would occur about 1 km into the Canal. Should a tsunami strike the eastern flanks of the Nile Delta, it would damage Egypt's maritime infrastructure and multi-national commercial vessels and military ships then using the Canal.

Life cycle economic and environmental implications of using nanocomposites in automobiles.

PubMed

Lloyd, Shannon M; Lave, Lester B

2003-08-01

By reducing the energy and materials required to provide goods and services, nanotechnology has the potential to provide more appealing products while improving environmental performance and sustainability. Whether and how soon this potential could be realized depends on phrasing the right research and development (R&D) questions and pursuing commercialization intelligently. A sufficiently broad perspective at the outset is required to understand economic and technical feasibility, estimate life cycle environmental implications, and minimize unanticipated negative impacts. The rapid rise in federally funded nanotechnology R&D dictates that consideration of societal benefits will have a large role in setting the R&D agenda. We estimate potential selected economic and environmental impacts associated with the use of nanotechnology in the automotive industry. In particular, we project the material processing and fuel economy benefits associated with using a clay-polypropylene nanocomposite instead of steel or aluminum in light-duty vehicle body panels. Although the manufacturing cost is currently higher, a life cycle analysis shows potential benefits in reducing energy use and environment discharges by using a nanocomposite design.

The need for better evidence to evaluate the health & economic benefits of India's Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana

PubMed Central

Nandi, Arindam; Holtzman, E. Phoebe; Malani, Anup; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-01-01

In this review the existing evidence on the impact of Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY) is discussed in the context of international literature available on health insurance. We describe potential pathways through which health insurance can affect health and economic outcomes, discuss evidence from other developing countries, and identify potential biases and inconsistencies in existing studies on RSBY impact. Given the relatively recent introduction of RSBY, lack of quality, verifiable data on utilization patterns, and the absence of reliable evaluation studies, there is a need to exercise caution while assessing the merits of the programme. Considering the enormous potential and cost of the programme, we emphasize the need for a rigorous impact evaluation of RSBY. It will not only help capture the real impact of the scheme, but may also be able to estimate the extent of systemic inefficiencies at the level of the consumer. PMID:26609029

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

2013-06-01

The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

Estimating peak skin and eye lens dose from neuroperfusion examinations: use of Monte Carlo based simulations and comparisons to CTDIvol, AAPM Report No. 111, and ImPACT dosimetry tool values.

PubMed

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H; Villablanca, J Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H; Cody, Dianna D; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2013-09-01

CT neuroperfusion examinations are capable of delivering high radiation dose to the skin or lens of the eyes of a patient and can possibly cause deterministic radiation injury. The purpose of this study is to: (a) estimate peak skin dose and eye lens dose from CT neuroperfusion examinations based on several voxelized adult patient models of different head size and (b) investigate how well those doses can be approximated by some commonly used CT dose metrics or tools, such as CTDIvol, American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and the ImPACT organ dose calculator spreadsheet. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate peak skin and eye lens dose on voxelized patient models, including GSF's Irene, Frank, Donna, and Golem, on four scanners from the major manufacturers at the widest collimation under all available tube potentials. Doses were reported on a per 100 mAs basis. CTDIvol measurements for a 16 cm CTDI phantom, AAPM Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and ImPACT calculations were performed for available scanners at all tube potentials. These were then compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. The dose variations across the different voxelized patient models were small. Dependent on the tube potential and scanner and patient model, CTDIvol values overestimated peak skin dose by 26%-65%, and overestimated eye lens dose by 33%-106%, when compared to Monte Carlo simulations. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements were much closer to peak skin estimates ranging from a 14% underestimate to a 33% overestimate, and with eye lens dose estimates ranging from a 9% underestimate to a 66% overestimate. The ImPACT spreadsheet overestimated eye lens dose by 2%-82% relative to voxelized model simulations. CTDIvol consistently overestimates dose to eye lens and skin. The ImPACT tool also overestimated dose to eye lenses. As such they are still useful as a conservative predictor of dose for CT neuroperfusion studies. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements are a better predictor of both peak skin and eye lens dose than CTDIvol and ImPACT for the patient models used in this study. It should be remembered that both the AAPM Report No. 111 peak dose metric and CTDIvol dose metric are dose indices and were not intended to represent actual organ doses.

Estimating peak skin and eye lens dose from neuroperfusion examinations: Use of Monte Carlo based simulations and comparisons to CTDIvol, AAPM Report No. 111, and ImPACT dosimetry tool values

PubMed Central

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H.; Villablanca, J. Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H.; Cody, Dianna D.; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.

2013-01-01

Purpose: CT neuroperfusion examinations are capable of delivering high radiation dose to the skin or lens of the eyes of a patient and can possibly cause deterministic radiation injury. The purpose of this study is to: (a) estimate peak skin dose and eye lens dose from CT neuroperfusion examinations based on several voxelized adult patient models of different head size and (b) investigate how well those doses can be approximated by some commonly used CT dose metrics or tools, such as CTDIvol, American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and the ImPACT organ dose calculator spreadsheet. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate peak skin and eye lens dose on voxelized patient models, including GSF's Irene, Frank, Donna, and Golem, on four scanners from the major manufacturers at the widest collimation under all available tube potentials. Doses were reported on a per 100 mAs basis. CTDIvol measurements for a 16 cm CTDI phantom, AAPM Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and ImPACT calculations were performed for available scanners at all tube potentials. These were then compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. Results: The dose variations across the different voxelized patient models were small. Dependent on the tube potential and scanner and patient model, CTDIvol values overestimated peak skin dose by 26%–65%, and overestimated eye lens dose by 33%–106%, when compared to Monte Carlo simulations. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements were much closer to peak skin estimates ranging from a 14% underestimate to a 33% overestimate, and with eye lens dose estimates ranging from a 9% underestimate to a 66% overestimate. The ImPACT spreadsheet overestimated eye lens dose by 2%–82% relative to voxelized model simulations. Conclusions: CTDIvol consistently overestimates dose to eye lens and skin. The ImPACT tool also overestimated dose to eye lenses. As such they are still useful as a conservative predictor of dose for CT neuroperfusion studies. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements are a better predictor of both peak skin and eye lens dose than CTDIvol and ImPACT for the patient models used in this study. It should be remembered that both the AAPM Report No. 111 peak dose metric and CTDIvol dose metric are dose indices and were not intended to represent actual organ doses. PMID:24007152

Ground water contamination and costs of pesticide restrictions in the southeastern coastal plain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danielson, L.E.; Carlson, G.A.; Liu, S.

The project developed new methodology for estimating: (1) groundwater contamination potential (GWCP) in the Southeast Coastal Plain, and (2) the potential economic impacts of selected policies that restrict pesticide use. The potential for ground water contamination was estimated by use of a simple matrix for combining ratings for both soil leaching potential and pesticide leaching potential. Key soil variables included soil texture, soil acidity and organic matter content. Key pesticide characteristics included Koc, pesticide half-life, the rate of application and the fraction of the pesticide hitting the soil. Comparisons of pesticide use from various farmer and expert opinion surveys weremore » made for pesticide groups and for individual pesticide products. Methodology for merging the GWCP changes and lost benefits from selected herbicide cancellations was developed using corn production in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Economic evaluations of pesticide cancellations for corn included national and Coastal Plain estimates for atrazine; metolachlor; dicamba; dicamba and atrazine; and dicamba, atrazine and metolachlor.« less

Mitigation, adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets.

Treesearch

Brent Sohngen; Ralph Alig

2000-01-01

This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the...

Families as Natural Experiments: A Procedure for Estimating the Potentially Biasing Influence of Families on Relationships Between Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teachman, Jay D.

1995-01-01

Argues that data on siblings provide a way to account for the impact of unmeasured, omitted variables on relationships of interest because families form a sort of natural experiment, with similar experiences and common genetic heritage. Proposes a latent-variable structural equation approach to the problem, which provides estimates of both within-…

Estimating the Potential Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Adverse Maternal and Child Health Outcomes in the United States Using the SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model.

PubMed

Levy, David; Mohlman, Mary Katherine; Zhang, Yian

2016-05-01

Numerous studies document the causal relationship between prenatal smoking and adverse maternal and child health (MCH) outcomes. Studies also reveal the impact that tobacco control policies have on prenatal smoking. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of tobacco control policies on prenatal smoking prevalence and adverse MCH outcomes. The US SimSmoke simulation model was extended to consider adverse MCH outcomes. The model estimates prenatal smoking prevalence and, applying standard attribution methods, uses estimates of MCH prevalence and relative smoking risks to estimate smoking-attributable MCH outcomes over time. The model then estimates the effect of tobacco control policies on adverse birth outcomes averted. Different tobacco control policies have varying impacts on the number of smoking-attributable adverse MCH birth outcomes. Higher cigarette taxes and comprehensive marketing bans individually have the biggest impact with a 5% to 10% reduction across all outcomes for the period from 2015 to 2065. The policies with the lowest impact (2%-3% decrease) during this period are cessation treatment, health warnings, and complete smoke-free laws. Combinations of all policies with each tax level lead to 23% to 28% decreases across all outcomes. Our findings demonstrate the substantial impact of strong tobacco control policies for preventing adverse MCH outcomes, including long-term health implications for children exposed to low birth weight and preterm birth. These benefits are often overlooked in discussions of tobacco control. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of Lives Saved Tool model child mortality estimates against measured data from vector control studies in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and indoor-residual spraying have been scaled-up across sub-Saharan Africa as part of international efforts to control malaria. These interventions have the potential to significantly impact child survival. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was developed to provide national and regional estimates of cause-specific mortality based on the extent of intervention coverage scale-up. We compared the percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST against measured reductions in all-cause child mortality from studies assessing the impact of vector control interventions in Africa. Methods We performed a literature search for appropriate studies and compared reductions in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST to 4 studies that estimated changes in all-cause child mortality following the scale-up of vector control interventions. The following key parameters measured by each study were applied to available country projections: baseline all-cause child mortality rate, proportion of mortality due to malaria, and population coverage of vector control interventions at baseline and follow-up years. Results The percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by the LiST model fell within the confidence intervals around the measured mortality reductions for all 4 studies. Two of the LiST estimates overestimated the mortality reductions by 6.1 and 4.2 percentage points (33% and 35% relative to the measured estimates), while two underestimated the mortality reductions by 4.7 and 6.2 percentage points (22% and 25% relative to the measured estimates). Conclusions The LiST model did not systematically under- or overestimate the impact of ITNs on all-cause child mortality. These results show the LiST model to perform reasonably well at estimating the effect of vector control scale-up on child mortality when compared against measured data from studies across a range of malaria transmission settings. The LiST model appears to be a useful tool in estimating the potential mortality reduction achieved from scaling-up malaria control interventions. PMID:21501453

Energy Cost Impact of Non-Residential Energy Code Requirements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jian; Hart, Philip R.; Rosenberg, Michael I.

2016-08-22

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code contains 396 separate requirements applicable to non-residential buildings; however, there is no systematic analysis of the energy cost impact of each requirement. Consequently, limited code department budgets for plan review, inspection, and training cannot be focused on the most impactful items. An inventory and ranking of code requirements based on their potential energy cost impact is under development. The initial phase focuses on office buildings with simple HVAC systems in climate zone 4C. Prototype building simulations were used to estimate the energy cost impact of varying levels of non-compliance. A preliminary estimate of themore » probability of occurrence of each level of non-compliance was combined with the estimated lost savings for each level to rank the requirements according to expected savings impact. The methodology to develop and refine further energy cost impacts, specific to building type, system type, and climate location is demonstrated. As results are developed, an innovative alternative method for compliance verification can focus efforts so only the most impactful requirements from an energy cost perspective are verified for every building and a subset of the less impactful requirements are verified on a random basis across a building population. The results can be further applied in prioritizing training material development and specific areas of building official training.« less

Evaluation of the environmental impact of apple pest control strategies using pesticide risk indicators.

PubMed

Ioriatti, Claudio; Agnello, Arthur M; Martini, Fabrizio; Kovach, Joseph

2011-10-01

Various pesticide risk indicators have been developed for estimating pesticide impact on human health and the environment. The present work applied a pesticide risk indicator to estimate change in pesticide risk in apple production between 2001 and 2009. The "Environmental Impact Quotient" was used, which evaluates potential impacts of pesticide active ingredients on farm workers, consumers, and nontarget organisms. A modified Environmental Impact Quotient was also tested, which accounts for all ingredients in the formulation presenting a health or environmental hazard, as identified in the Security Data Sheet. Irrespective of the rating system applied, an overall average improvement in environmental impact of apple protection strategies was indicated ranging from 23 to 24%. Hazard reduction was more significant when estimated per treatment, and was higher for acaricides and insecticides than for fungicides. Improvement appeared to be a consequence of using more selective and more effective active ingredients, applying alternative pest control techniques, compulsory periodic sprayer calibration, and wider use of dwarfing orchards. The modified Environmental Impact Quotient does not overcome all limitations regarding accuracy of pesticide risk indicators, but its ease of use in relying on official, easily accessible data, and the consistency of its results, makes it a good candidate for monitoring the success of reduced risk policies. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Semiparametric Estimation of the Impacts of Longitudinal Interventions on Adolescent Obesity using Targeted Maximum-Likelihood: Accessible Estimation with the ltmle Package

PubMed Central

Decker, Anna L.; Hubbard, Alan; Crespi, Catherine M.; Seto, Edmund Y.W.; Wang, May C.

2015-01-01

While child and adolescent obesity is a serious public health concern, few studies have utilized parameters based on the causal inference literature to examine the potential impacts of early intervention. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the causal effects of early interventions to improve physical activity and diet during adolescence on body mass index (BMI), a measure of adiposity, using improved techniques. The most widespread statistical method in studies of child and adolescent obesity is multi-variable regression, with the parameter of interest being the coefficient on the variable of interest. This approach does not appropriately adjust for time-dependent confounding, and the modeling assumptions may not always be met. An alternative parameter to estimate is one motivated by the causal inference literature, which can be interpreted as the mean change in the outcome under interventions to set the exposure of interest. The underlying data-generating distribution, upon which the estimator is based, can be estimated via a parametric or semi-parametric approach. Using data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Growth and Health Study, a 10-year prospective cohort study of adolescent girls, we estimated the longitudinal impact of physical activity and diet interventions on 10-year BMI z-scores via a parameter motivated by the causal inference literature, using both parametric and semi-parametric estimation approaches. The parameters of interest were estimated with a recently released R package, ltmle, for estimating means based upon general longitudinal treatment regimes. We found that early, sustained intervention on total calories had a greater impact than a physical activity intervention or non-sustained interventions. Multivariable linear regression yielded inflated effect estimates compared to estimates based on targeted maximum-likelihood estimation and data-adaptive super learning. Our analysis demonstrates that sophisticated, optimal semiparametric estimation of longitudinal treatment-specific means via ltmle provides an incredibly powerful, yet easy-to-use tool, removing impediments for putting theory into practice. PMID:26046009

Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldman, Marvin; Hoover, Mark D.; Nelson, Robert C.; Templeton, William; Bollinger, Lance; Anspaugh, Lynn

1991-01-01

Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later time after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher.

Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: a proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP.

PubMed

Voorhees, A Scott; Fann, Neal; Fulcher, Charles; Dolwick, Patrick; Hubbell, Bryan; Bierwagen, Britta; Morefield, Philip

2011-02-15

Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and is likely to increase heat-related human health morbidity and mortality risks. The objective of this work was to develop a proof-of-concept approach for estimating excess heat-related premature deaths in the continental United States resulting from potential changes in future temperature using the BenMAP model. In this approach we adapt the methods and tools that the US Environmental Protection Agency uses to assess air pollution health impacts by incorporating temperature modeling and heat mortality health impact functions. This new method demonstrates the ability to apply the existing temperature-health literature to quantify prospective changes in climate-sensitive heat-related mortality. We compared estimates of future temperature with and without climate change and applied heat-mortality health functions to estimate relative changes in heat-related premature mortality. Using the A1B emissions scenario, we applied the GISS-II global circulation model downscaled to 36-km using MM5 and formatted using the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor. For averaged temperatures derived from the 5 years 2048-2052 relative to 1999-2003 we estimated for the warm season May-September a national U.S. estimate of annual incidence of heat-related mortality to be 3700-3800 from all causes, 3500 from cardiovascular disease, and 21 000-27 000 from nonaccidental death, applying various health impact functions. Our estimates of mortality, produced to validate the application of a new methodology, suggest the importance of quantifying heat impacts in economic assessments of climate change.

Impact of Exposure Uncertainty on the Association between Perfluorooctanoate and Preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project Population.

PubMed

Avanasi, Raghavendhran; Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Vieira, Verónica M; Savitz, David A; Bartell, Scott M

2016-01-01

Uncertainty in exposure estimates from models can result in exposure measurement error and can potentially affect the validity of epidemiological studies. We recently used a suite of environmental models and an integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic model to estimate individual perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) serum concentrations and assess the association with preeclampsia from 1990 through 2006 for the C8 Health Project participants. The aims of the current study are to evaluate impact of uncertainty in estimated PFOA drinking-water concentrations on estimated serum concentrations and their reported epidemiological association with preeclampsia. For each individual public water district, we used Monte Carlo simulations to vary the year-by-year PFOA drinking-water concentration by randomly sampling from lognormal distributions for random error in the yearly public water district PFOA concentrations, systematic error specific to each water district, and global systematic error in the release assessment (using the estimated concentrations from the original fate and transport model as medians and a range of 2-, 5-, and 10-fold uncertainty). Uncertainty in PFOA water concentrations could cause major changes in estimated serum PFOA concentrations among participants. However, there is relatively little impact on the resulting epidemiological association in our simulations. The contribution of exposure uncertainty to the total uncertainty (including regression parameter variance) ranged from 5% to 31%, and bias was negligible. We found that correlated exposure uncertainty can substantially change estimated PFOA serum concentrations, but results in only minor impacts on the epidemiological association between PFOA and preeclampsia. Avanasi R, Shin HM, Vieira VM, Savitz DA, Bartell SM. 2016. Impact of exposure uncertainty on the association between perfluorooctanoate and preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project population. Environ Health Perspect 124:126-132; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409044.

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

PubMed Central

Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

2013-01-01

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on different geographical scales. PMID:23555771

Costs and global impacts of black carbon abatement strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje K.; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Myhre, Gunnar; Skeie, Ragnhild B.

2009-09-01

Abatement of particulate matter has traditionally been driven by health concerns rather than its role in global warming. Here we assess future abatement strategies in terms of how much they reduce the climate impact of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) from contained combustion. We develop global scenarios which take into account regional differences in climate impact, costs of abatement and ability to pay, as well as both the direct and indirect (snow-albedo) climate impact of BC and OC. To represent the climate impact, we estimate consistent region-specific values of direct and indirect global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP). The indirect GWP has been estimated using a physical approach and includes the effect of change in albedo from BC deposited on snow. The indirect GWP is highest in the Middle East followed by Russia, Europe and North America, while the total GWP is highest in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. We conclude that prioritizing emission reductions in Asia represents the most cost-efficient global abatement strategy for BC because Asia is (1) responsible for a large share of total emissions, (2) has lower abatement costs compared to Europe and North America and (3) has large health cobenefits from reduced PM10 emissions.

The ISO 50001 Impact Estimator Tool (IET 50001 V1.1.4) - User Guide and Introduction to the ISO 50001 Impacts Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Therkelsen, Peter L.; Rao, Prakash; Aghajanzadeh, Arian

ISO 50001-Energy management systems – Requirements with guidance for use, is an internationally developed standard that provides organizations with a flexible framework for implementing an energy management system (EnMS) with the goal of continual energy performance improvement. The ISO 50001 standard was first published in 2011 and has since seen growth in the number of certificates issued around the world, primarily in the industrial (agriculture, manufacturing, and mining) and service (commercial) sectors. Policy makers in many regions and countries are looking to or are already using ISO 50001 as a basis for energy efficiency, carbon reduction, and other energy performancemore » improvement schemes. The Impact Estimator Tool 50001 (IET 50001 Tool) is a computational model developed to assist researchers and policy makers determine the potential impact of ISO 50001 implementation in the industrial and service (commercial) sectors for a given region or country. The IET 50001 Tool is based upon a methodology initially developed by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory that has been improved upon and vetted by a group of international researchers. By using a commonly accepted and transparent methodology, users of the IET 50001 Tool can easily and clearly communicate the potential impact of ISO 50001 for a region or country.« less

Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

Treesearch

Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran

2017-01-01

Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

Comparing Impact Findings from Design-Based and Model-Based Methods: An Empirical Investigation. NCEE 2017-4026

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kautz, Tim; Schochet, Peter Z.; Tilley, Charles

2017-01-01

A new design-based theory has recently been developed to estimate impacts for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and basic quasi-experimental designs (QEDs) for a wide range of designs used in social policy research (Imbens & Rubin, 2015; Schochet, 2016). These methods use the potential outcomes framework and known features of study designs…

Implications of Middle School Behavior Problems for High School Graduation and Employment Outcomes of Young Adults: Estimation of a Recursive Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karakus, Mustafa C.; Salkever, David S.; Slade, Eric P.; Ialongo, Nicholas; Stuart, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

The potentially serious adverse impacts of behavior problems during adolescence on employment outcomes in adulthood provide a key economic rationale for early intervention programs. However, the extent to which lower educational attainment accounts for the total impact of adolescent behavior problems on later employment remains unclear. As an…

A quantitative approach to assessing the efficacy of occupant protection programs: A case study from Montana.

PubMed

Manlove, Kezia; Stanley, Laura; Peck, Alyssa

2015-10-01

Quantitative evaluation of vehicle occupant protection programs is critical for ensuring efficient government resource allocation, but few methods exist for conducting evaluation across multiple programs simultaneously. Here we present an analysis of occupant protection efficacy in the state of Montana. This approach relies on seat belt compliance rates as measured by the National Occupant Protection Usage Survey (NOPUS). A hierarchical logistic regression model is used to estimate the impacts of four Montana Department of Transportation (MDT)-funded occupant protection programs used in the state of Montana, following adjustment for a suite of potential confounders. Activity from two programs, Buckle Up coalitions and media campaigns, are associated with increased seat belt use in Montana, whereas the impact of another program, Selective Traffic Enforcement, is potentially masked by other program activity. A final program, Driver's Education, is not associated with any shift in seat belt use. This method allows for a preliminary quantitative estimation of program impacts without requiring states to obtain any new seat belt use data. This approach provides states a preliminary look at program impacts, and a means for carefully planning future program allocation and investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Populations potentially exposed to traffic-related air pollution in seven world cities.

PubMed

Su, Jason G; Apte, Joshua S; Lipsitt, Jonah; Garcia-Gonzales, Diane A; Beckerman, Bernardo S; de Nazelle, Audrey; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Jerrett, Michael

2015-05-01

Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) likely exerts a large burden of disease globally, and in many places, traffic is increasing dramatically. The impact, however, of urban form on the portion of population potentially exposed to TRAP remains poorly understood. In this study, we estimate portions of population potentially exposed to TRAP across seven global cities of various urban forms. Data on population distributions and road networks were collected from the best available sources in each city and from remote sensing analysis. Using spatial mapping techniques, we first overlaid road buffers onto population data to estimate the portions of population potentially exposed for four plausible impact zones. Based on a most likely scenario with impacts from highways up to 300meters and major roadways up to 50meters, we identified that the portions of population potentially exposed for the seven cities ranged from 23 to 96%. High-income North American cities had the lowest potential exposure portions, while those in Europe had the highest. Second, we adjusted exposure zone concentration levels based on a literature suggested multiplier for each city using corresponding background concentrations. Though Beijing and Mexico City did not have the highest portion of population exposure, those in their exposure zones had the highest levels of exposure. For all seven cities, the portion of population potentially exposed was positively correlated with roadway density and, to a lesser extent, with population density. These analyses suggest that urban form may influence the portion of population exposed to TRAP and vehicle emissions and other factors may influence the exposure levels. Greater understanding of urban form and other factors influencing potential exposure to TRAP may help inform interventions that protect public health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581

Assessing the Potential Environmental Consequences of a New Energetic Material: A Phased Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

Melting point • Ionization potential (2) QSAR approaches can also be used to estimate toxicological impact. Toxicity QSAR models can often... TOXICOLOGY STUDY NO. 87-XE-03N3-05 ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF A NEW ENERGETIC MATERIAL: A PHASED APPROACH...SEPTEMBER 2005 Published: December 2007 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Toxicology Study No. 87-XE-03N3-05

[Labor productivity losses attributable to premature deaths due to traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012].

PubMed

Cubí-Mollá, Patricia; Peña-Longobardo, Luz María; Casal, Bruno; Rivera, Berta; Oliva-Moreno, Juan

2015-09-01

To estimate the years of potential life lost, years of potential productive life lost and the labor productivity losses attributable to premature deaths due to traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012 in Spain. Several statistical sources were combined (Spanish Registry of Deaths, Labor Force Survey and Wage Structure Survey) to develop a simulation model based on the human capital approach. This model allowed us to estimate the loss of labor productivity caused by premature deaths following traffic injuries from 2002 to 2012. In addition, mortality tables with life expectancy estimates were used to compute years of potential life lost and years of potential productive life lost. The estimated loss of labour productivity caused by fatal traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012 in Spain amounted to 9,521 million euros (baseline year 2012). The aggregate number of years of potential life lost in the period amounted to 1,433,103, whereas the years of potential productive life lost amounted to 875,729. Throughout the period analyzed, labor productivity losses and years of life lost diminished substantially. Labor productivity losses due to fatal traffic injuries decreased throughout the period analyzed. Nevertheless, the cumulative loss was alarmingly high. Estimation of the economic impact of health problems can complement conventional indicators of distinct dimensions and be used to support public policy making. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Effect of driver's age and side of impact on crash severity along urban freeways: a mixed logit approach.

PubMed

Haleem, Kirolos; Gan, Albert

2013-09-01

This study identifies geometric, traffic, environmental, vehicle-related, and driver-related predictors of crash injury severity on urban freeways. The study takes advantage of the mixed logit model's ability to account for unobserved effects that are difficult to quantify and may affect the model estimation, such as the driver's reaction at the time of crash. Crashes of 5 years occurring on 89 urban freeway segments throughout the state of Florida in the United States were used. Examples of severity predictors explored include traffic volume, distance of the crash to the nearest ramp, and detailed driver's age, vehicle types, and sides of impact. To show how the parameter estimates could vary, a binary logit model was compared with the mixed logit model. It was found that the at-fault driver's age, traffic volume, distance of the crash to the nearest ramp, vehicle type, side of impact, and percentage of trucks significantly influence severity on urban freeways. Additionally, young at-fault drivers were associated with a significant severity risk increase relative to other age groups. It was also observed that some variables in the binary logit model yielded illogic estimates due to ignoring the random variation of the estimation. Since the at-fault driver's age and side of impact were significant random parameters in the mixed logit model, an in-depth investigation was performed. It was noticed that back, left, and right impacts had the highest risk among middle-aged drivers, followed by young drivers, very young drivers, and finally, old and very old drivers. To reduce side impacts due to lane changing, two primary strategies can be recommended. The first strategy is to conduct campaigns to convey the hazardous effect of changing lanes at higher speeds. The second is to devise in-vehicle side crash avoidance systems to alert drivers of a potential crash risk. The study provided a promising approach to screening the predictors before fitting the mixed logit model using the random forest technique. Furthermore, potential countermeasures were proposed to reduce the severity of impacts. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy Impacts of Wide Band Gap Semiconductors in U.S. Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Fleet.

PubMed

Warren, Joshua A; Riddle, Matthew E; Graziano, Diane J; Das, Sujit; Upadhyayula, Venkata K K; Masanet, Eric; Cresko, Joe

2015-09-01

Silicon carbide and gallium nitride, two leading wide band gap semiconductors with significant potential in electric vehicle power electronics, are examined from a life cycle energy perspective and compared with incumbent silicon in U.S. light-duty electric vehicle fleet. Cradle-to-gate, silicon carbide is estimated to require more than twice the energy as silicon. However, the magnitude of vehicle use phase fuel savings potential is comparatively several orders of magnitude higher than the marginal increase in cradle-to-gate energy. Gallium nitride cradle-to-gate energy requirements are estimated to be similar to silicon, with use phase savings potential similar to or exceeding that of silicon carbide. Potential energy reductions in the United States vehicle fleet are examined through several scenarios that consider the market adoption potential of electric vehicles themselves, as well as the market adoption potential of wide band gap semiconductors in electric vehicles. For the 2015-2050 time frame, cumulative energy savings associated with the deployment of wide band gap semiconductors are estimated to range from 2-20 billion GJ depending on market adoption dynamics.

Outside the Continental United States International Travel and Contagion Impact Quick Look Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corley, Courtney D.; Lancaster, Mary J.; Brigantic, Robert T.

2012-11-09

ABSTRACT This paper describes a tool that will allow public health analysts to estimate infectious disease risk at the country level as a function of different international transportation modes. The prototype focuses on a cholera epidemic originating within Latin America or the Caribbean, but it can be expanded to consider other pathogens as well. This effort leverages previous work in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop the International Travel to Community Impact (IT-CI) model, which analyzes and assesses potential international disease outbreaks then estimates the associated impacts to U.S. communities and the nation as amore » whole and orient it for use Outside the Continental United States (OCONUS). For brevity, we refer to this refined model as OIT-CI. First, we developed an operationalized meta-population spatial cholera model for Latin America and the Caribbean at the secondary administrative-level boundary. Secondly, we developed a robust function of human airline critical to approximating mixing patterns in the meta- population model. In the prototype version currently presented here, OIT-CI models a cholera epidemic originating in a Latin American or Caribbean country and spreading via airline transportation routes. Disease spread is modeled at the country level using a patch model with a connectivity function based on demographic, geospatial, and human transportation data. We have also identified data to estimate the water and health-related infrastructure capabilities of each country to include this potential impact on disease transmission.« less

Potential for spatial displacement of Cook Inlet beluga whales by anthropogenic noise in critical habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Small, Robert J.; Brost, Brian M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Castellote, Manuel; Mondragon, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

The population of beluga whales in Cook Inlet, Alaska, USA, declined by nearly half in the mid-1990s, primarily from an unsustainable harvest, and was listed as endangered in 2008. In 2014, abundance was ~340 whales, and the population trend during 1999-2014 was -1.3% yr-1. Cook Inlet beluga whales are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts, and noise that has the potential to reduce communication and echolocation range considerably has been documented in critical habitat; thus, noise was ranked as a high potential threat in the Cook Inlet beluga Recovery Plan. The current recovery strategy includes research on effects of threats potentially limiting recovery, and thus we examined the potential impact of anthropogenic noise in critical habitat, specifically, spatial displacement. Using a subset of data on anthropogenic noise and beluga detections from a 5 yr acoustic study, we evaluated the influence of noise events on beluga occupancy probability. We used occupancy models, which account for factors that affect detection probability when estimating occupancy, the first application of these models to examine the potential impacts of anthropogenic noise on marine mammal behavior. Results were inconclusive, primarily because beluga detections were relatively infrequent. Even though noise metrics (sound pressure level and noise duration) appeared in high-ranking models as covariates for occupancy probability, the data were insufficient to indicate better predictive ability beyond those models that only included environmental covariates. Future studies that implement protocols designed specifically for beluga occupancy will be most effective for accurately estimating the effect of noise on beluga displacement.

Alternative Land-Use Scenarios for Bioenergy Production in the U.S. and Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, J. E.; Spak, S.; Tsao, C. C.; Mena, M.; Chen, Y.

2015-12-01

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be enhanced by growing demand for biofuels. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories and agronomic models to characterize land-use impacts and mitigation scenarios for bioenergy production in the U.S. and Brazil. In the U.S., our gridded historical cropland maps show potential for production in the U.S. on 68 Mha of abandoned croplands in the U.S. which is as much as 70% larger than previous estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. In Brazil, a critical land-use impact is associated with non-GHG air pollutants from the management and expansion of sugarcane feedstocks. Our bottom-up estimate for these Brazilian land-use emissions is seven times larger than estimated from remote-sensing data due to the improved spatial resolution of our approach. While current land-use policies in Brazil and the U.S. seek to reduce life-cycle biofuel emissions, these policies may not support the mitigation alternatives identified here.

Regional ozone impacts of increased natural gas use in the Texas power sector and development in the Eagle Ford shale.

PubMed

Pacsi, Adam P; Kimura, Yosuke; McGaughey, Gary; McDonald-Buller, Elena C; Allen, David T

2015-03-17

The combined emissions and air quality impacts of electricity generation in the Texas grid and natural gas production in the Eagle Ford shale were estimated at various natural gas price points for the power sector. The increased use of natural gas in the power sector, in place of coal-fired power generation, drove reductions in average daily maximum 8 h ozone concentration of 0.6-1.3 ppb in northeastern Texas for a high ozone episode used in air quality planning. The associated increase in Eagle Ford upstream oil and gas production nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions caused an estimated local increase, in south Texas, of 0.3-0.7 ppb in the same ozone metric. In addition, the potential ozone impacts of Eagle Ford emissions on nearby urban areas were estimated. On the basis of evidence from this work and a previous study on the Barnett shale, the combined ozone impact of increased natural gas development and use in the power sector is likely to vary regionally and must be analyzed on a case by case basis.

Reevaluation of the global warming impacts of algae-derived biofuels to account for possible contributions of nitrous oxide.

PubMed

Bauer, Sarah K; Grotz, Lara S; Connelly, Elizabeth B; Colosi, Lisa M

2016-10-01

The environmental impacts of algae biofuels have been evaluated by life-cycle assessment (LCA); however, these analyses have overlooked nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. A literature analysis was performed to estimate algal N2O emissions and assess the impacts of growth conditions on flux magnitudes. Nitrogen source and dissolved oxygen concentration were identified as possible key contributors; therefore, their individual and combined impacts were evaluated using bench-scale experiments. It was observed that maximum N2O emissions (77.5μg/galgae/day) occur under anoxic conditions with nitrite. Conversely, minimum emissions (6.25μg/galgae/day) occur under oxic conditions with nitrate. Aggregated N2O flux estimates were then incorporated into a LCA framework for algae biodiesel. Accounting for "low" N2O emissions mediated no significant increase (<1%) compared to existing GWP estimates; however, "high" N2O emissions mediate an increase of roughly 25%, potentially jeopardizing the anticipated economic and environmental performances of algae biofuels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodological Considerations for Use of Routine Health Information System Data to Evaluate Malaria Program Impact in an Era of Declining Malaria Transmission

PubMed Central

Ashton, Ruth A.; Bennett, Adam; Yukich, Joshua; Bhattarai, Achuyt; Keating, Joseph; Eisele, Thomas P.

2017-01-01

Abstract. Coverage of malaria control interventions is increasing dramatically across endemic countries. Evaluating the impact of malaria control programs and specific interventions on health indicators is essential to enable countries to select the most effective and appropriate combination of tools to accelerate progress or proceed toward malaria elimination. When key malaria interventions have been proven effective under controlled settings, further evaluations of the impact of the intervention using randomized approaches may not be appropriate or ethical. Alternatives to randomized controlled trials are therefore required for rigorous evaluation under conditions of routine program delivery. Routine health management information system (HMIS) data are a potentially rich source of data for impact evaluation, but have been underused in impact evaluation due to concerns over internal validity, completeness, and potential bias in estimates of program or intervention impact. A range of methodologies were identified that have been used for impact evaluations with malaria outcome indicators generated from HMIS data. Methods used to maximize internal validity of HMIS data are presented, together with recommendations on reducing bias in impact estimates. Interrupted time series and dose-response analyses are proposed as the strongest quasi-experimental impact evaluation designs for analysis of malaria outcome indicators from routine HMIS data. Interrupted time series analysis compares the outcome trend and level before and after the introduction of an intervention, set of interventions or program. The dose-response national platform approach explores associations between intervention coverage or program intensity and the outcome at a subnational (district or health facility catchment) level. PMID:28990915

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

This presentation provides a high-level overview of the current U.S. shared solar landscape, the impact that a given shared solar program's structure has on requiring federal securities oversight, as well as an estimate of market potential for U.S. shared solar deployment.

The Potential Impact of an Anthrax Attack on Real Estate Prices and Foreclosures in Seattle.

PubMed

Dormady, Noah; Szelazek, Thomas; Rose, Adam

2014-01-01

This article provides a methodology for the economic analysis of the potential consequences of a simulated anthrax terrorism attack on real estate within the Seattle metropolitan area. We estimate spatially disaggregated impacts on median sales price of residential housing within the Seattle metro area following an attack on the central business district (CBD). Using a combination of longitudinal panel regression and GIS analysis, we find that the median sales price in the CBD could decline by as much as $280,000, and by nearly $100,000 in nearby communities. These results indicate that total residential property values could decrease by over $50 billion for Seattle, or a 33% overall decline. We combine these estimates with HUD's 2009 American Housing Survey (AHS) to further predict 70,000 foreclosures in Seattle spatial zones following the terrorism event. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantifying the causal effects of 20mph zones on road casualties in London via doubly robust estimation.

PubMed

Li, Haojie; Graham, Daniel J

2016-08-01

This paper estimates the causal effect of 20mph zones on road casualties in London. Potential confounders in the key relationship of interest are included within outcome regression and propensity score models, and the models are then combined to form a doubly robust estimator. A total of 234 treated zones and 2844 potential control zones are included in the data sample. The propensity score model is used to select a viable control group which has common support in the covariate distributions. We compare the doubly robust estimates with those obtained using three other methods: inverse probability weighting, regression adjustment, and propensity score matching. The results indicate that 20mph zones have had a significant causal impact on road casualty reduction in both absolute and proportional terms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing potential prescription reimbursement changes: estimated acquisition costs in Wisconsin.

PubMed

Kreling, D H

1989-01-01

Potential impacts from two methods of changing prescription drug ingredient reimbursement in the Wisconsin Medicaid program were estimated. Current reimbursement amounts were compared with those resulting from either direct prices for eight manufacturers' products and average wholesale price less 10.5 percent for other products or wholesaler cost plus 5.01 percent for all products. The resulting overall average ingredient cost reimbursement reductions were 6.64 percent ($0.56 per prescription) and 6.94 percent ($0.59 per prescription) for the two methods, respectively. The results should be viewed from the perspective of both program savings and reduced pharmacists' revenues.

Incidence and Prevalence of Opportunistic and Other Infections and the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-infected Children in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

B-Lajoie, Marie-Renée; Drouin, Olivier; Bartlett, Gillian; Nguyen, Quynh; Low, Andrea; Gavriilidis, Georgios; Easterbrook, Philippa; Muhe, Lulu

2016-01-01

Background. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the incidence and prevalence of 14 opportunistic infections (OIs) and other infections as well as the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected children (aged <18 years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), to understand regional burden of disease, and inform delivery of HIV services. Methods. Eligible studies described the incidence of OIs and other infections in ART-naive and -exposed children from January 1990 to November 2013, using Medline, Global Health, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Knowledge, and Literatura Latino Americana em Ciências da Saúde databases. Summary incident risk (IR) and prevalent risk for each OI in ART-naive and ART-exposed children were calculated, and unadjusted odds ratios calculated for impact of ART. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted were estimated using the AIDS impact model. Results. We identified 4542 citations, and 88 studies were included, comprising 55 679 HIV-infected children. Bacterial pneumonia and tuberculosis were the most common incident and prevalent infections in both ART-naive and ART-exposed children. There was a significant reduction in IR with ART for the majority of OIs. There was a smaller impact on bacterial sepsis and pneumonia, and an increase observed for varicella zoster. ART initiation based on 2010 World Health Organization guidelines criteria for ART initiation in children was estimated to potentially avert >161 000 OIs (2013 UNAIDS data) with estimated cost savings of at least US$17 million per year. Conclusions. There is a decrease in the risk of most OIs with ART use in HIV-infected children in LMICs, and estimated large potential cost savings in OIs averted with ART use, although there are greater uncertainties in pediatric data compared with that of adults. PMID:27001796

Quantifying Impacts of Food Trade on Water Availability Considering Water Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Yano, S.; Hanasaki, N.

2012-12-01

Food production requires a lot of water, and traded food potentially has external impacts on environment through reducing the water availability in the producing region. Water footprint is supposed to be an indicator to reflect the impacts of water use. However, impacts of water use on environment, resource, and sustainability are different in place and time, and according to the sources of water withdrawals. Therefore it is preferable to characterize the water withdrawals or consumptions rather than just accumulate the total amount of water use when estimating water footprint. In this study, a new methodology, global green-water equivalent method, is proposed in which regional characterization factors are determined based on the estimates of natural hydrological cycles, such as precipitation, total runoff, and sub-surface runoff, and applied for green-water, river(+reservoir) water, and non-renewable ground water uses. Water footprint of the world associated with the production of 19 major crops was estimated using an integrated hydrological and water resources modeling system (H08), with atmospheric forcing data for 1991-2000 with spatial resolution of 0.5 by 0.5 longitudinal and latitudinal degrees. The impacts is estimated to be 6 times larger than the simple summation of green and blue water uses, and reflect the climatological water scarcity conditions geographically. The results can be used to compare the possible impacts of food trade associated with various crops from various regions on environment through reducing the availability of water resources in the cropping area.

Quantifying the Impact of Natural Immunity on Rotavirus Vaccine Efficacy Estimates: A Clinical Trial in Dhaka, Bangladesh (PROVIDE) and a Simulation Study.

PubMed

Rogawski, Elizabeth T; Platts-Mills, James A; Colgate, E Ross; Haque, Rashidul; Zaman, K; Petri, William A; Kirkpatrick, Beth D

2018-03-05

The low efficacy of rotavirus vaccines in clinical trials performed in low-resource settings may be partially explained by acquired immunity from natural exposure, especially in settings with high disease incidence. In a clinical trial of monovalent rotavirus vaccine in Bangladesh, we compared the original per-protocol efficacy estimate to efficacy derived from a recurrent events survival model in which children were considered naturally exposed and potentially immune after their first rotavirus diarrhea (RVD) episode. We then simulated trial cohorts to estimate the expected impact of prior exposure on efficacy estimates for varying rotavirus incidence rates and vaccine efficacies. Accounting for natural immunity increased the per-protocol vaccine efficacy estimate against severe RVD from 63.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.0%-79.7%) to 70.2% (95% CI, 44.5%-84.0%) in the postvaccination period, and original year 2 efficacy was underestimated by 14%. The simulations demonstrated that this expected impact increases linearly with RVD incidence, will be greatest for vaccine efficacies near 50%, and can reach 20% in settings with high incidence and low efficacy. High rotavirus incidence leads to predictably lower vaccine efficacy estimates due to the acquisition of natural immunity in unvaccinated children, and this phenomenon should be considered when comparing efficacy estimates across settings. NCT01375647.

Win-Win for Wind and Wildlife: A Vision to Facilitate Sustainable Development

PubMed Central

Kiesecker, Joseph M.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Fargione, Joe; Doherty, Kevin; Foresman, Kerry R.; Kunz, Thomas H.; Naugle, Dave; Nibbelink, Nathan P.; Niemuth, Neal D.

2011-01-01

Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production, making appropriate siting and mitigation particularly important. Species that require large unfragmented habitats and those known to avoid vertical structures are particularly at risk from wind development. Developing energy on disturbed lands rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce cumulative impacts to wildlife. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 241 GW of terrestrial based wind development on approximately 5 million hectares to reach 20% electricity production for the U.S. by 2030. We estimate there are ∼7,700 GW of potential wind energy available across the U.S., with ∼3,500 GW on disturbed lands. In addition, a disturbance-focused development strategy would avert the development of ∼2.3 million hectares of undisturbed lands while generating the same amount of energy as development based solely on maximizing wind potential. Wind subsidies targeted at favoring low-impact developments and creating avoidance and mitigation requirements that raise the costs for projects impacting sensitive lands could improve public value for both wind energy and biodiversity conservation. PMID:21533285

Win-win for wind and wildlife: a vision to facilitate sustainable development.

PubMed

Kiesecker, Joseph M; Evans, Jeffrey S; Fargione, Joe; Doherty, Kevin; Foresman, Kerry R; Kunz, Thomas H; Naugle, Dave; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Niemuth, Neal D

2011-04-13

Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production, making appropriate siting and mitigation particularly important. Species that require large unfragmented habitats and those known to avoid vertical structures are particularly at risk from wind development. Developing energy on disturbed lands rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce cumulative impacts to wildlife. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 241 GW of terrestrial based wind development on approximately 5 million hectares to reach 20% electricity production for the U.S. by 2030. We estimate there are ∼7,700 GW of potential wind energy available across the U.S., with ∼3,500 GW on disturbed lands. In addition, a disturbance-focused development strategy would avert the development of ∼2.3 million hectares of undisturbed lands while generating the same amount of energy as development based solely on maximizing wind potential. Wind subsidies targeted at favoring low-impact developments and creating avoidance and mitigation requirements that raise the costs for projects impacting sensitive lands could improve public value for both wind energy and biodiversity conservation.

Chemical Composition and Potential Environmental Impacts of Water-Soluble Polar Crude Oil Components Inferred from ESI FT-ICR MS

PubMed Central

Liu, Yina; Kujawinski, Elizabeth B.

2015-01-01

Polar petroleum components enter marine environments through oil spills and natural seepages each year. Lately, they are receiving increased attention due to their potential toxicity to marine organisms and persistence in the environment. We conducted a laboratory experiment and employed state-of-the-art Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) to characterize the polar petroleum components within two operationally-defined seawater fractions: the water-soluble fraction (WSF), which includes only water-soluble molecules, and the water-accommodated fraction (WAF), which includes WSF and microscopic oil droplets. Our results show that compounds with higher heteroatom (N, S, O) to carbon ratios (NSO:C) than the parent oil were selectively partitioned into seawater in both fractions, reflecting the influence of polarity on aqueous solubility. WAF and WSF were compositionally distinct, with unique distributions of compounds across a range of hydrophobicity. These compositional differences will likely result in disparate impacts on environmental health and organismal toxicity, and thus highlight the need to distinguish between these often-interchangeable terminologies in toxicology studies. We use an empirical model to estimate hydrophobicity character for individual molecules within these complex mixtures and provide an estimate of the potential environmental impacts of different crude oil components. PMID:26327219

Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level.

PubMed

Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B; Smith, Ward N; Desjardins, Raymond L; Worth, Devon E; Zentner, Robert; Malhi, Sukhdev S

2014-08-15

Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha(-1) decreased on average the emissions of N2O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Concentrations of prioritized pharmaceuticals in effluents from 50 large wastewater treatment plants in the US and implications for risk estimation.

PubMed

Kostich, Mitchell S; Batt, Angela L; Lazorchak, James M

2014-01-01

We measured concentrations of 56 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in effluent samples from 50 large wastewater treatment plants across the US. Hydrochlorothiazide was found in every sample. Metoprolol, atenolol, and carbamazepine were found in over 90% of the samples. Valsartan had the highest concentration (5300 ng/L), and also had the highest average concentration (1600 ng/L) across all 50 samples. Estimates of potential risks to healthy human adults were greatest for six anti-hypertensive APIs (lisinopril, hydrochlorothiazide, valsartan, atenolol, enalaprilat, and metoprolol), but nevertheless suggest risks of exposure to individual APIs as well as their mixtures are generally very low. Estimates of potential risks to aquatic life were also low for most APIs, but suggest more detailed study of potential ecological impacts from four analytes (sertraline, propranolol, desmethylsertraline, and valsartan). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Military Draft. Potential Impacts and Other Issues. Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Defense, Committee on Appropriations, U.S. Senate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

A study estimated the impacts of returning to a draft on the federal budget, the effectiveness of the active-duty force, and the civilian economy. It investigated how industrialized countries raise and manage their armed forces. Experts offered arguments on the purported advantages and disadvantages of a force comprised of volunteers only, as…

The Impact of a Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications Rulemaking on Growth in the DSRC Automotive Aftermarket A Market Adoption Model and Forecast for Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) for Light and Heavy Vehicle Categories

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-15

The focus of this project was to estimate the potential impact of a new motor vehicle government mandate for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology on the demand for aftermarket devices, applications, and infrastructure that leverages the same dedicated...

Implications of Middle School Behavior Problems for High School Graduation and Employment Outcomes of Young Adults: Estimation of a Recursive Model. NBER Working Paper No. 16383

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karakus, Mustafa C.; Salkever, David S.; Slade, Eric P.; Ialongo, Nicholas; Stuart, Elizabeth

2010-01-01

The potentially serious adverse impacts of behavior problems during adolescence on employment outcomes in adulthood provide a key economic rationale for early intervention programs. However, the extent to which lower educational attainment accounts for the total impact of adolescent behavior problems on later employment remains unclear. As an…

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

PubMed

Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

2016-01-01

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Designing programs to improve diets for maternal and child health: estimating costs and potential dietary impacts of nutrition-sensitive programs in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and India.

PubMed

Masters, William A; Rosettie, Katherine L; Kranz, Sarah; Danaei, Goodarz; Webb, Patrick; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2018-05-01

Improving maternal and child nutrition in resource-poor settings requires effective use of limited resources, but priority-setting is constrained by limited information about program costs and impacts, especially for interventions designed to improve diet quality. This study utilized a mixed methods approach to identify, describe and estimate the potential costs and impacts on child dietary intake of 12 nutrition-sensitive programs in Ethiopia, Nigeria and India. These potential interventions included conditional livestock and cash transfers, media and education, complementary food processing and sales, household production and food pricing programs. Components and costs of each program were identified through a novel participatory process of expert regional consultation followed by validation and calibration from literature searches and comparison with actual budgets. Impacts on child diets were determined by estimating of the magnitude of economic mechanisms for dietary change, comprehensive reviews of evaluations and effectiveness for similar programs, and demographic data on each country. Across the 12 programs, total cost per child reached (net present value, purchasing power parity adjusted) ranged very widely: from 0.58 to 2650 USD/year among five programs in Ethiopia; 2.62 to 1919 USD/year among four programs in Nigeria; and 27 to 586 USD/year among three programs in India. When impacts were assessed, the largest dietary improvements were for iron and zinc intakes from a complementary food production program in Ethiopia (increases of 17.7 mg iron/child/day and 7.4 mg zinc/child/day), vitamin A intake from a household animal and horticulture production program in Nigeria (335 RAE/child/day), and animal protein intake from a complementary food processing program in Nigeria (20.0 g/child/day). These results add substantial value to the limited literature on the costs and dietary impacts of nutrition-sensitive interventions targeting children in resource-limited settings, informing policy discussions and serving as critical inputs to future cost-effectiveness analyses focusing on disease outcomes.

Designing programs to improve diets for maternal and child health: estimating costs and potential dietary impacts of nutrition-sensitive programs in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and India

PubMed Central

Rosettie, Katherine L; Kranz, Sarah; Danaei, Goodarz; Webb, Patrick; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Bhattacharjee, Lalita; Chandrasekhar, S; Christensen, Cheryl; Desai, Sonalde; Kazi-Hutchins, Nabeeha; Levin, Carol; Paarlberg, Robert; Vosti, Steven; Adekugbe, Olayinka; Atomsa, Gudina Egata; Badham, Jane; Baye, Kaleab; Beyero, Mesfin; Covic, Namukolo; Dalton, Babukiika; Dufour, Charlotte; Fracassi, Patrizia; Getahun, Zewditu; Haidar, Jemal; Hailu, Tesfaye; Kebede, Aweke; Kinabo, Joyce; Kussaga, Jamal Bakari; Mavrotas, George; Mwanja, Wilson Waiswa; Oguntona, Babatunde; Oladipo, Abiodun; Oniang’o, Ruth; Sibanda, Simbarashe; Sodjinou, Roger; Tom, Carol; Wamani, Henry; Wendelin, Akwilina; Adhikari, Ramesh Kant; Amatya, Archana; Bhattarai, Manav; Brahmbhatt, Viral; Chandyo, Ram Krishna; Gulati, Seema; Kapil, Umesh; Mehta, Ranju; Mohan, Sailesh; Prabhakaran, D; Prakash, V; Puri, Seema; Roy, S K; Sharma, Rekha; Shivakoti, Sabnam; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew; Rana, Pooja Pandey; Trilok-Kumar, Geeta

2018-01-01

Abstract Improving maternal and child nutrition in resource-poor settings requires effective use of limited resources, but priority-setting is constrained by limited information about program costs and impacts, especially for interventions designed to improve diet quality. This study utilized a mixed methods approach to identify, describe and estimate the potential costs and impacts on child dietary intake of 12 nutrition-sensitive programs in Ethiopia, Nigeria and India. These potential interventions included conditional livestock and cash transfers, media and education, complementary food processing and sales, household production and food pricing programs. Components and costs of each program were identified through a novel participatory process of expert regional consultation followed by validation and calibration from literature searches and comparison with actual budgets. Impacts on child diets were determined by estimating of the magnitude of economic mechanisms for dietary change, comprehensive reviews of evaluations and effectiveness for similar programs, and demographic data on each country. Across the 12 programs, total cost per child reached (net present value, purchasing power parity adjusted) ranged very widely: from 0.58 to 2650 USD/year among five programs in Ethiopia; 2.62 to 1919 USD/year among four programs in Nigeria; and 27 to 586 USD/year among three programs in India. When impacts were assessed, the largest dietary improvements were for iron and zinc intakes from a complementary food production program in Ethiopia (increases of 17.7 mg iron/child/day and 7.4 mg zinc/child/day), vitamin A intake from a household animal and horticulture production program in Nigeria (335 RAE/child/day), and animal protein intake from a complementary food processing program in Nigeria (20.0 g/child/day). These results add substantial value to the limited literature on the costs and dietary impacts of nutrition-sensitive interventions targeting children in resource-limited settings, informing policy discussions and serving as critical inputs to future cost-effectiveness analyses focusing on disease outcomes. PMID:29522103

Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

PubMed Central

Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

2012-01-01

Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration–response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration–response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA’s 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. PMID:22796531

Use of cryostat sections from snap-frozen nervous tissue for combining stereological estimates with histological, cellular, or molecular analyses on adjacent sections.

PubMed

Schmitz, C; Dafotakis, M; Heinsen, H; Mugrauer, K; Niesel, A; Popken, G J; Stephan, M; Van de Berg, W D; von Hörsten, S; Korr, H

2000-10-01

Adequate tissue preparation is essential for both modern stereological and immunohistochemical investigations. However, combining these methodologies in a single study presents a number of obstacles pertaining to optimal histological preparation. Tissue shrinkage and loss of nuclei/nucleoli from the unprotected section surfaces of unembedded tissue used for immunohistochemistry may be problematic with regard to adequate stereological design. In this study, frozen cryostat sections from hippocampal and cerebellar regions of two rat strains and cerebellar and cerebral regions from a human brain were analyzed to determine the potential impact of these factors on estimates of neuron number obtained using the optical disector. Neuronal nuclei and nucleoli were clearly present in thin sections of snap-frozen rat (3 microm) and human (6 microm) tissue, indicating that neuronal nuclei/nucleoli are not unavoidably lost from unprotected section surfaces of unembedded tissue. In order to quantify the potential impact of any nuclear loss, optical fractionator estimates of rat hippocampal pyramidal cells in areas CA1-3 and cerebellar granule and Purkinje cells were made using minimal (1 microm) upper guard zones. Estimates did not differ from data reported previously in the literature. This data indicates that cryostat sections of snap-frozen nervous tissue may successfully be used for estimating total neuronal numbers using optical disectors.

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

2010-11-15

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment wasmore » ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.« less

Estimation of the use of pesticides and their potential environmental impacts in Hipólito Yrigoyen, Buenos Aires, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalo Mayoral, Eliana; Nuñez, Mariana

2017-04-01

The process of agriculturalisation in the Pampean Region of Argentina revealed not only a significant advance of agriculture on medium to low-end land, but also the adoption of certain cultural practices, including the use of pesticides. In this sense, this research aims to know the estimated use of herbicides in the Hipólito Yrigoyen District (PHY) during the agricultural campaign 2015/16 and the potential environmental impacts resulting from the society / nature relationships identified from ecological zoning of the same. The Ecological Zoning (ZE) of the PHY (166.300 ha) at a scale of 1:500.000 allowed to identify 3 Morphological Units (UM) and 6 Morpho-phytopedic Units (UMFE), which were evaluated according to their ecological rural suitability. This evaluation indicates that 34,46% of the PHY shows aptitude from regular to good for annual crop yield, while 65,54% of the remaining area has regular or good aptitude for livestock use of cultivated forage (46,21%) and native plants (19,33%). However, despite PHY's livestock-agricultural aptitude, the evolution of current land use indicates that since 1988 and especially in 2002, only agricultural activities have led land use, focusing on the production of a few crops. In fact, in the 2015/16 crop year, 92.900 ha were sown mainly with soybean (59,2%) and maize (19,38%), and to a lesser extent with oats, barley, wheat, sunflower and sorghum (21,42%). The estimation of the use of agrochemicals according to the productive approach identified in the Inland Pampa, allows to affirm that within the group of herbicides, the most used in the 2015/16 campaign in PHY was glyphosate (364.500 l), followed by atrazine (72.800 l), 2,4-D (48.550 l) and Metsulfuron-methyl (532.000 g). According to the above, in relation to the production modality and the estimation of the use of herbicides in the last agricultural season, the analysis of the society-nature relations in the PHY reveals the potential environmental impacts derived from this activity. In general terms, potentially impacted environmental factors include soil, vegetation, fauna, ecosystems, water and society, and within the identified impacts, the proliferation of agrochemical resistant weeds, the simplification and homogenization of ecosystems, the genetic erosion and loss of variability, the reduction of surface and ground water quality, and the health risks of workers and the nearby population, are directly associated with the use of agrochemicals.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, L.M.; Clayton, M.; Everingham, J.

A comparison of background and potential geopressured geothermal development-related subsidence rates is given. Estimated potential geopressured-related rates at six prospects are presented. The effect of subsidence on the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast is examined including the various associated ground movements and the possible effects of these ground movements on surficial processes. The relationships between ecosystems and subsidence, including the capability of geologic and biologic systems to adapt to subsidence, are analyzed. The actual potential for environmental impact caused by potential geopressured-related subsidence at each of four prospects is addressed. (MHR)

Numerical Investigation of Rockfall Impacts on Muckpiles for Underground Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effeindzourou, Anna; Giacomini, Anna; Thoeni, Klaus; Sloan, Scott W.

2017-06-01

Small-scale waste rock piles or muckpiles are commonly used as energy absorption barriers in various surface mining applications. This paper numerically investigates the impact behaviour of blocks on muckpiles used as cushion layer on top of underground portal entries. A three-dimensional discrete element model is implemented into the open-source framework YADE and validated using full-scale experimental data. The model allows estimating the energy absorption capacity of the muckpile and the impact forces acting on the portal structure. It also provides valuable information on the rebound characteristics which are useful for the definition of the potential safety areas in the vicinity of an underground entry. In order to show its capabilities, the model is applied to a large number of cases representing potential design conditions. The influence of block mass, impact velocity and absorbing cushion thickness on the forces at the base of the muckpile and the rebound trajectories after impact are investigated.

Small cities face greater impact from automation.

PubMed

Frank, Morgan R; Sun, Lijun; Cebrian, Manuel; Youn, Hyejin; Rahwan, Iyad

2018-02-01

The city has proved to be the most successful form of human agglomeration and provides wide employment opportunities for its dwellers. As advances in robotics and artificial intelligence revive concerns about the impact of automation on jobs, a question looms: how will automation affect employment in cities? Here, we provide a comparative picture of the impact of automation across US urban areas. Small cities will undertake greater adjustments, such as worker displacement and job content substitutions. We demonstrate that large cities exhibit increased occupational and skill specialization due to increased abundance of managerial and technical professions. These occupations are not easily automatable, and, thus, reduce the potential impact of automation in large cities. Our results pass several robustness checks including potential errors in the estimation of occupational automation and subsampling of occupations. Our study provides the first empirical law connecting two societal forces: urban agglomeration and automation's impact on employment. © 2018 The Authors.

Small cities face greater impact from automation

PubMed Central

Sun, Lijun; Cebrian, Manuel; Rahwan, Iyad

2018-01-01

The city has proved to be the most successful form of human agglomeration and provides wide employment opportunities for its dwellers. As advances in robotics and artificial intelligence revive concerns about the impact of automation on jobs, a question looms: how will automation affect employment in cities? Here, we provide a comparative picture of the impact of automation across US urban areas. Small cities will undertake greater adjustments, such as worker displacement and job content substitutions. We demonstrate that large cities exhibit increased occupational and skill specialization due to increased abundance of managerial and technical professions. These occupations are not easily automatable, and, thus, reduce the potential impact of automation in large cities. Our results pass several robustness checks including potential errors in the estimation of occupational automation and subsampling of occupations. Our study provides the first empirical law connecting two societal forces: urban agglomeration and automation's impact on employment. PMID:29436514

Cumulative biological impacts of The Geysers geothermal development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brownell, J.A.

1981-10-01

The cumulative nature of current and potential future biological impacts from full geothermal development in the steam-dominated portion of The Geysers-Calistoga KGRA are identified by the California Energy Commission staff. Vegetation, wildlife, and aquatic resources information have been reviewed and evaluated. Impacts and their significance are discussed and staff recommendations presented. Development of 3000 MW of electrical energy will result in direct vegetation losses of 2790 acres, based on an estimate of 11.5% loss per lease-hold of 0.93 acres/MW. If unmitigated, losses will be greater. Indirect vegetation losses and damage occur from steam emissions which contain elements (particularly boron) toxicmore » to vegetation. Other potential impacts include chronic low-level boron exposure, acid rain, local climate modification, and mechanical damage. A potential exists for significant reduction and changes in wildlife from direct habitat loss and development influences. Highly erosive soils create the potential for significant reduction of aquatic resources, particularly game fish. Toxic spills have caused some temporary losses of aquatic species. Staff recommends monitoring and implementation of mitigation measures at all geothermal development stages.« less

Assessing the short term impact of air pollution on mortality: a matching approach.

PubMed

Baccini, Michela; Mattei, Alessandra; Mealli, Fabrizia; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Carugno, Michele

2017-02-10

The opportunity to assess short term impact of air pollution relies on the causal interpretation of the exposure-response association. However, up to now few studies explicitly faced this issue within a causal inference framework. In this paper, we reformulated the problem of assessing the short term impact of air pollution on health using the potential outcome approach to causal inference. We considered the impact of high daily levels of particulate matter ≤10 μm in diameter (PM 10 ) on mortality within two days from the exposure in the metropolitan area of Milan (Italy), during the period 2003-2006. Our research focus was the causal impact of a hypothetical intervention setting daily air pollution levels under a pre-fixed threshold. We applied a matching procedure based on propensity score to estimate the total number of attributable deaths (AD) during the study period. After defining the number of attributable deaths in terms of difference between potential outcomes, we used the estimated propensity score to match each high exposure day, namely each day with a level of exposure higher than 40 μg/m 3 , with a day with similar background characteristics but a level of exposure lower than 40 μg/m 3 . Then, we estimated the impact by comparing mortality between matched days. During the study period daily exposures larger than 40 μg/m 3 were responsible for 1079 deaths (90% CI: 116; 2042). The impact was more evident among the elderly than in the younger age classes. Exposures ≥ 40 μg/m 3 were responsible, among the elderly, for 1102 deaths (90% CI: 388, 1816), of which 797 from cardiovascular causes and 243 from respiratory causes. Clear evidence of an impact on respiratory mortality was found also in the age class 65-74, with 87 AD (90% CI: 11, 163). The propensity score matching turned out to be an appealing method to assess historical impacts in this field, which guarantees that the estimated total number of AD can be derived directly as sum of either age-specific or cause-specific AD, unlike the standard model-based procedure. For this reason, it is a promising approach to perform surveillance focusing on very specific causes of death or diseases, or on susceptible subpopulations. Finally, the propensity score matching is free from issues concerning the exposure-confounders-mortality modeling and does not involve extrapolation. On the one hand this enhances the internal validity of our results; on the other, it makes the approach scarcely appropriate for estimating future impacts.

Meta-Analysis of the Oil Price Elasticity of the GDP for Policy Analysis: Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles; Oladosu, Gbadebo A.

Given the important role of oil in economic activities, policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential damage to the economy from oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe shocks. Such estimates are needed to quantify the economic costs of oil price shocks, and to evaluate the potential benefits of alternative policy responses. Although research on the economic impacts of oil price shocks is extensive and has generally found that large increases in oil prices exert negative economic impacts, the range of estimates, summarized by the oil price elasticity of the GDPmore » or other aggregate measure of economic activity, is very wide. There are also conditions under which the relationship between the oil price and the economy could be positive. The range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States is typified by averages from the studies of Hamilton (2005, 2012) and Kilian and Vigfusson (2014), in which the implied elasticities were -0.014 to - 0.069 and +0.004 to -0.052, respectively. We employ a meta-regression approach to systematically summarize available estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for oil importing economies, and examine the role of key factors. The resulting regression model was used to estimate the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States. Based on this we estimate the mean elasticity for the United States at -0.0238, with a 68% confidence interval of -0.0075 to -0.0402, four quarters after a shock.« less

The Use of Statistically Based Rolling Supply Curves for Electricity Market Analysis: A Preliminary Look

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkin, Thomas J; Larson, Andrew; Ruth, Mark F

In light of the changing electricity resource mixes across the United States, an important question in electricity modeling is how additions and retirements of generation, including additions in variable renewable energy (VRE) generation could impact markets by changing hourly wholesale energy prices. Instead of using resource-intensive production cost models (PCMs) or building and using simple generator supply curves, this analysis uses a 'top-down' approach based on regression analysis of hourly historical energy and load data to estimate the impact of supply changes on wholesale electricity prices, provided the changes are not so substantial that they fundamentally alter the market andmore » dispatch-order driven behavior of non-retiring units. The rolling supply curve (RSC) method used in this report estimates the shape of the supply curve that fits historical hourly price and load data for given time intervals, such as two-weeks, and then repeats this on a rolling basis through the year. These supply curves can then be modified on an hourly basis to reflect the impact of generation retirements or additions, including VRE and then reapplied to the same load data to estimate the change in hourly electricity price. The choice of duration over which these RSCs are estimated has a significant impact on goodness of fit. For example, in PJM in 2015, moving from fitting one curve per year to 26 rolling two-week supply curves improves the standard error of the regression from 16 dollars/MWh to 6 dollars/MWh and the R-squared of the estimate from 0.48 to 0.76. We illustrate the potential use and value of the RSC method by estimating wholesale price effects under various generator retirement and addition scenarios, and we discuss potential limits of the technique, some of which are inherent. The ability to do this type of analysis is important to a wide range of market participants and other stakeholders, and it may have a role in complementing use of or providing calibrating insights to PCMs.« less

Using FIA and GIS Data to Estimate Areas and Volumes of Potential Stream Management Zones and Road Beautifying Buffers

Treesearch

Michael Zasada; Chris J. Cieszewski; Roger C. Lowe; Jarek Zawadzki; Mike Clutter; Jacek P. Siry

2005-01-01

Georgia Stream Management Zones (SMZ) are voluntary and have an unknown extent and impact. We use FIA data, Landsat TM imagery, and GAP and other GIS data to estimate the acreages and volumes of these buffers. We use stream data classified into trout, perennial, and intermittent, combined with DEM files containing elevation values, to assess buffers with widths...

Potential for cumulative effects of human stressors on fish, sea birds and marine mammals in Arctic waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Jesper H.; Berzaghi, Fabio; Christensen, Tom; Geertz-Hansen, Ole; Mosbech, Anders; Stock, Andy; Zinglersen, Karl B.; Wisz, Mary S.

2017-01-01

We estimate the potential for cumulative impacts from multiple anthropogenic stressors on fish, sea birds, and marine mammals in the western, southern and south-eastern parts of marine waters around Greenland. The analysis is based on a comprehensive data set representing five human activities including two proxies for climate change, as well as 25 key animal species including commercially important fish and top predators such as sea birds and marine mammals. Anthropogenic stressors are concentrated in two areas: the offshore waters south of Greenland, and especially the western coast from the Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island) area to the southern tip of Greenland. The latter is also an area of high importance for many key species, thus the potential for cumulative impacts is high along Greenland's west coast. We conclude that this area should be under high scientific scrutiny and conservation attention. Our study is a first attempt and a stepping-stone towards more detailed and accurate estimates of the effects of multiple human stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems.

Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

2015-11-01

Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the most efficient cooling from a switch to fuel with a lower BC emission factor (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Latvia). The results presented here thus provide valuable information for climate impact assessments across a wide range of cookstove initiatives.

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

2016-07-19

There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy options. Findings will inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 (registered 3 February 2016).

A direct approach to estimating the number of potential fatalities from an eruption: Application to the Central Volcanic Complex of Tenerife Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, J. M.; García, A.; Llinares, A.; Rodriguez-Losada, J. A.; Ortiz, R.

2012-03-01

One of the critical issues in managing volcanic crises is making the decision to evacuate a densely-populated region. In order to take a decision of such importance it is essential to estimate the cost in lives for each of the expected eruptive scenarios. One of the tools that assist in estimating the number of potential fatalities for such decision-making is the calculation of the FN-curves. In this case the FN-curve is a graphical representation that relates the frequency of the different hazards to be expected for a particular volcano or volcanic area, and the number of potential fatalities expected for each event if the zone of impact is not evacuated. In this study we propose a method for assessing the impact that a possible eruption from the Tenerife Central Volcanic Complex (CVC) would have on the population at risk. Factors taken into account include the spatial probability of the eruptive scenarios (susceptibility) and the temporal probability of the magnitudes of the eruptive scenarios. For each point or cell of the susceptibility map with greater probability, a series of probability-scaled hazard maps is constructed for the whole range of magnitudes expected. The number of potential fatalities is obtained from the intersection of the hazard maps with the spatial map of population distribution. The results show that the Emergency Plan for Tenerife must provide for the evacuation of more than 100,000 persons.

Changing cluster composition in cluster randomised controlled trials: design and analysis considerations

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There are many methodological challenges in the conduct and analysis of cluster randomised controlled trials, but one that has received little attention is that of post-randomisation changes to cluster composition. To illustrate this, we focus on the issue of cluster merging, considering the impact on the design, analysis and interpretation of trial outcomes. Methods We explored the effects of merging clusters on study power using standard methods of power calculation. We assessed the potential impacts on study findings of both homogeneous cluster merges (involving clusters randomised to the same arm of a trial) and heterogeneous merges (involving clusters randomised to different arms of a trial) by simulation. To determine the impact on bias and precision of treatment effect estimates, we applied standard methods of analysis to different populations under analysis. Results Cluster merging produced a systematic reduction in study power. This effect depended on the number of merges and was most pronounced when variability in cluster size was at its greatest. Simulations demonstrate that the impact on analysis was minimal when cluster merges were homogeneous, with impact on study power being balanced by a change in observed intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC). We found a decrease in study power when cluster merges were heterogeneous, and the estimate of treatment effect was attenuated. Conclusions Examples of cluster merges found in previously published reports of cluster randomised trials were typically homogeneous rather than heterogeneous. Simulations demonstrated that trial findings in such cases would be unbiased. However, simulations also showed that any heterogeneous cluster merges would introduce bias that would be hard to quantify, as well as having negative impacts on the precision of estimates obtained. Further methodological development is warranted to better determine how to analyse such trials appropriately. Interim recommendations include avoidance of cluster merges where possible, discontinuation of clusters following heterogeneous merges, allowance for potential loss of clusters and additional variability in cluster size in the original sample size calculation, and use of appropriate ICC estimates that reflect cluster size. PMID:24884591

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yuche; Young, Stanley; Gonder, Jeff

This study estimates the range of fuel and emissions impact of an automated-vehicle (AV) based transit system that services campus-based developments, termed an automated mobility district (AMD). The study develops a framework to quantify the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts of a transit system comprised of AVs, taking into consideration average vehicle fleet composition, fuel consumption/GHG emission of vehicles within specific speed bins, and the average occupancy of passenger vehicles and transit vehicles. The framework is exercised using a previous mobility analysis of a personal rapid transit (PRT) system, a system which shares many attributes with envisionedmore » AV-based transit systems. Total fuel consumption and GHG emissions with and without an AMD are estimated, providing a range of potential system impacts on sustainability. The results of a previous case study based of a proposed implementation of PRT on the Kansas State University (KSU) campus in Manhattan, Kansas, serves as the basis to estimate personal miles traveled supplanted by an AMD at varying levels of service. The results show that an AMD has the potential to reduce total system fuel consumption and GHG emissions, but the amount is largely dependent on operating and ridership assumptions. The study points to the need to better understand ride-sharing scenarios and calls for future research on sustainability benefits of an AMD system at both vehicle and system levels.« less

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

Towards Robust Energy Systems Modeling: Examinging Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel-Based Life Cycle Assessment Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkatesh, Aranya

Increasing concerns about the environmental impacts of fossil fuels used in the U.S. transportation and electricity sectors have spurred interest in alternate energy sources, such as natural gas and biofuels. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods can be used to estimate the environmental impacts of incumbent energy sources and potential impact reductions achievable through the use of alternate energy sources. Some recent U.S. climate policies have used the results of LCAs to encourage the use of low carbon fuels to meet future energy demands in the U.S. However, the LCA methods used to estimate potential reductions in environmental impact have some drawbacks. First, the LCAs are predominantly based on deterministic approaches that do not account for any uncertainty inherent in life cycle data and methods. Such methods overstate the accuracy of the point estimate results, which could in turn lead to incorrect and (consequent) expensive decision-making. Second, system boundaries considered by most LCA studies tend to be limited (considered a manifestation of uncertainty in LCA). Although LCAs can estimate the benefits of transitioning to energy systems of lower environmental impact, they may not be able to characterize real world systems perfectly. Improved modeling of energy systems mechanisms can provide more accurate representations of reality and define more likely limits on potential environmental impact reductions. This dissertation quantitatively and qualitatively examines the limitations in LCA studies outlined previously. The first three research chapters address the uncertainty in life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with petroleum-based fuels, natural gas and coal consumed in the U.S. The uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions from fossil fuels was found to range between 13 and 18% of their respective mean values. For instance, the 90% confidence interval of the life cycle GHG emissions of average natural gas consumed in the U.S was found to range between -8 to 9% (17%) of the mean value of 66 g CO2e/MJ. Results indicate that uncertainty affects the conclusions of comparative life cycle assessments, especially when differences in average environmental impacts between two competing fuels/products are small. In the final two research chapters of this thesis, system boundary limitations in LCA are addressed. Simplified economic dispatch models for are developed to examine changes in regional power plant dispatch that occur when coal power plants are retired and when natural gas prices drop. These models better reflect reality by estimating the order in which existing power plants are dispatched to meet electricity demand based on short-run marginal costs. Results indicate that the reduction in air emissions are lower than suggested by LCA studies, since they generally do not include the complexity of regional electricity grids, predominantly driven by comparative fuel prices. For instance, comparison, this study estimates 7-15% reductions in emissions with low natural gas prices. Although this is a significant reduction in itself, it is still lower than the benefits reported in traditional life cycle comparisons of coal and natural gas-based power (close to 50%), mainly due to the effects of plant dispatch.

Smoking, HIV, and risk of pregnancy loss.

PubMed

Westreich, Daniel; Cates, Jordan; Cohen, Mardge; Weber, Kathleen M; Seidman, Dominika; Cropsey, Karen; Wright, Rodney; Milam, Joel; Young, Mary A; Mehta, C Christina; Gustafson, Deborah R; Golub, Elizabeth T; Fischl, Margaret A; Adimora, Adaora A

2017-02-20

Cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases risks of poor pregnancy outcomes including miscarriage and stillbirth (pregnancy loss), but the effect of smoking on pregnancy loss among HIV-infected women has not been explored. Here, investigated the impact of smoking on risk of pregnancy loss among HIV-positive and HIV-negative women, and estimated the potential impact of realistic smoking cessation interventions on risk of pregnancy loss among HIV-positive women. We analyzed pregnancy outcomes in HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants in the Women's Interagency HIV Study between 1994 and 2014. We estimated effects of current smoking at or immediately before pregnancy on pregnancy loss; we controlled for confounding using regression approaches, and estimated potential impact of realistic smoking cessation interventions using a semiparametric g-formula approach. Analysis examined 1033 pregnancies among 659 women. The effect of smoking on pregnancy loss differed dramatically by HIV status: adjusted for confounding, the risk difference comparing current smokers to current nonsmokers was 19.2% (95% confidence limit 10.9-27.5%) in HIV-positive women and 9.7% (95% confidence limit 0.0-19.4%) in HIV-negative women. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses. We estimated that we would need to offer a realistic smoking cessation intervention to 36 women to prevent one pregnancy loss. Smoking is a highly prevalent exposure with important consequences for pregnancy in HIV-positive pregnant women in the United States, even in the presence of potent highly active antiretroviral therapy. This evidence supports greater efforts to promote smoking cessation interventions among HIV-positive women, especially those who desire to become pregnant.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF GASOLINE BLENDING COMPONENTS THROUGH THEIR LIFE CYCLE

EPA Science Inventory

The contributions of three major gasoline blending components (reformate, alkylate and cracked gasoline) to potential environmental impacts are assessed. This study estimates losses of the gasoline blending components due to evaporation and leaks through their life cycle, from pe...

Model-Driven Energy Intelligence

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

building information model ( BIM ) for operations...estimate of the potential impact on energy performance at Fort Jackson. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Building Information Modeling ( BIM ), Energy, ECMs, monitoring...dimensional AHU Air Handling Unit API Application Programming Interface BIM building information model BLCC Building Life Cycle Cost

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

PubMed Central

Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin; Bondeau, Alberte; Lauk, Christian; Müller, Christoph; Plutzar, Christoph; Steinberger, Julia K.

2011-01-01

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a “food first” approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y−1, depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply. PMID:22211004

Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branstator, Grant; Teng, Haiyan

2012-06-01

To investigate the potential for initialization to improve decadal range predictions, we quantify the initial value predictability of upper 300 m temperature in the two northern ocean basins for 12 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), and we contrast it with the forced predictability in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate change projections. We use a recently introduced method that produces predictability estimates from long control runs. Many initial states are considered, and we find on average 1) initialization has the potential to improve skill in the first 5 years in the North Pacific and the first 9 years in the North Atlantic, and 2) the impact from initialization becomes secondary compared to the impact of RCP4.5 forcing after 6 1/2 and 8 years in the two basins, respectively. Model-to-model and spatial variations in these limits are, however, substantial.

Modelling the impact of the exotic forest pest nectria on the New Zealand forest sector and its major trading partners

Treesearch

James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2007-01-01

The possible impact of Nectria fuckeliana Booth on the forests and forest industries of New Zealand, a significant exporter of industrial roundwood, was estimated for different scenarios of the spread of the fungal pest and trade measure responses in export markets. An economic model was used to assess the direct effect of the pest and the potential...

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

Estimating the Health and Economic Impacts of Changes in Local Air Quality

PubMed Central

Carvour, Martha L.; Hughes, Amy E.; Fann, Neal

2018-01-01

Objectives. To demonstrate the benefits-mapping software Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE), which integrates local air quality data with previously published concentration–response and health–economic valuation functions to estimate the health effects of changes in air pollution levels and their economic consequences. Methods. We illustrate a local health impact assessment of ozone changes in the 10-county nonattainment area of the Dallas–Fort Worth region of Texas, estimating the short-term effects on mortality predicted by 2 scenarios for 3 years (2008, 2011, and 2013): an incremental rollback of the daily 8-hour maximum ozone levels of all area monitors by 10 parts per billion and a rollback-to-a-standard ambient level of 65 parts per billion at only monitors above that level. Results. Estimates of preventable premature deaths attributable to ozone air pollution obtained by the incremental rollback method varied little by year, whereas those obtained by the rollback-to-a-standard method varied by year and were sensitive to the choice of ordinality and the use of preloaded or imported data. Conclusions. BenMAP-CE allows local and regional public health analysts to generate timely, evidence-based estimates of the health impacts and economic consequences of potential policy options in their communities. PMID:29698094

Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa.

PubMed

Manyema, Mercy; Veerman, Lennert J; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Labadarios, Demetre; Hofman, Karen J

2016-05-31

Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010). We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million) in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million). Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years) from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

A Modelling Approach to Estimate the Impact of Sodium Reduction in Soups on Cardiovascular Health in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Bruins, Maaike J.; Dötsch-Klerk, Mariska; Matthee, Joep; Kearney, Mary; van Elk, Kathelijn; Weber, Peter; Eggersdorfer, Manfred

2015-01-01

Hypertension is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality, which could be lowered by reducing dietary sodium. The potential health impact of a product reformulation in the Netherlands was modelled, selecting packaged soups containing on average 25% less sodium as an example of an achievable product reformulation when implemented gradually. First, the blood pressure lowering resulting from sodium intake reduction was modelled. Second, the predicted blood pressure lowering was translated into potentially preventable incidence and mortality cases from stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), angina pectoris, and heart failure (HF) implementing one year salt reduction. Finally, the potentially preventable subsequent lifetime Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were calculated. The sodium reduction in soups might potentially reduce the incidence and mortality of stroke by approximately 0.5%, AMI and angina by 0.3%, and HF by 0.2%. The related burden of disease could be reduced by approximately 800 lifetime DALYs. This modelling approach can be used to provide insight into the potential public health impact of sodium reduction in specific food products. The data demonstrate that an achievable food product reformulation to reduce sodium can potentially benefit public health, albeit modest. When implemented across multiple product categories and countries, a significant health impact could be achieved. PMID:26393647

Potential impacts to perennial springs from tar sand mining, processing, and disposal on the Tavaputs Plateau, Utah, USA.

PubMed

Johnson, William P; Frederick, Logan E; Millington, Mallory R; Vala, David; Reese, Barbara K; Freedman, Dina R; Stenten, Christina J; Trauscht, Jacob S; Tingey, Christopher E; Kip Solomon, D; Fernandez, Diego P; Bowen, Gabriel J

2015-11-01

Similar to fracking, the development of tar sand mining in the U.S. has moved faster than understanding of potential water quality impacts. Potential water quality impacts of tar sand mining, processing, and disposal to springs in canyons incised approximately 200 m into the Tavaputs Plateau, at the Uinta Basin southern rim, Utah, USA, were evaluated by hydrogeochemical sampling to determine potential sources of recharge, and chemical thermodynamic estimations to determine potential changes in transfer of bitumen compounds to water. Because the ridgetops in an area of the Tavaputs Plateau named PR Spring are starting to be developed for their tar sand resource, there is concern for potential hydrologic connection between these ridgetops and perennial springs in adjacent canyons on which depend ranching families, livestock, wildlife and recreationalists. Samples were collected from perennial springs to examine possible progression with elevation of parameters such as temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, isotopic tracers of phase change, water-rock interaction, and age since recharge. The groundwater age dates indicate that the springs are recharged locally. The progression of hydrogeochemical parameters with elevation, in combination with the relatively short groundwater residence times, indicate that the recharge zone for these springs includes the surrounding ridges, and thereby suggests a hydrologic connection between the mining, processing, disposal area and the springs. Estimations based on chemical thermodynamic approaches indicate that bitumen compounds will have greatly enhanced solubility in water that comes into contact with the residual bitumen-solvent mixture in disposed tailings relative to water that currently comes into contact with natural tar. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On Assessment and Estimation of Potential Losses due to Land Subsidence in Urban Areas of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Andreas, Heri; Gumilar, Irwan; Sidiq, Teguh P.

2016-04-01

Land subsidence is natural-anthropogenic hazard affecting several large urban areas in Indonesia, i.e. Jakarta, Bandung and Semarang. Geodetic based results from various techniques (e.g. Leveling, GPS and InSAR) show that land subsidence rates in all three cities generally have spatial and temporal variations, and their magnitude is in average about 5-10 cm/year. The impacts of subsidence in those cities can be seen in the field in various forms such as cracking of permanent constructions and roads, tilting of houses and buildings, 'sinking' of houses and buildings, changes in river canal and drain flow systems, wider expansion of coastal and/or inland flooding areas, and increased inland sea water intrusion. These impacts can be categorized into infrastructure, environmental, economic, and social impacts. The potential losses due to land subsidence in urban areas are actually quite significant. Related infrastructural, social and environmental costs due to direct and indirect impacts of land subsidence are economically quite significant, and can not be underestimated in sustainable urban development. The planning, development and maintenance costs of building and infrastructures in the affected areas are usually much higher than the normal situation. The collateral impact of coastal subsidence in Jakarta and Semarang, in the form of coastal flooding during high tides is also quite damaging. This repeated coastal flooding in several areas along the coast will deteriorate the structure and function of building and infrastructures, badly influences the quality of the living environment and life (e.g. health and sanitation condition), and also disrupts economic and social activities in the affected areas. As in the case of Bandung, inland subsidence also has a quite significant impact on inland flooding phenomena, since it will theoretically lead to expanded coverage and deeper water depth of flooded (inundated) areas. Since the direct and indirect impacts of subsidence have also relation among each other, the accurate quantification of the potential losses caused by land subsidence in urban areas is not an easy task to accomplish. The direct losses can be easier to estimate than the indirect losses. For example, the direct losses due to land subsidence in Bandung was estimated to be at least 180 Million USD; but the indirect losses is still unknown.

Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

2015-12-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

Counting the cost: estimating the economic benefit of pedophile treatment programs.

PubMed

Shanahan, M; Donato, R

2001-04-01

The principal objective of this paper is to identify the economic costs and benefits of pedophile treatment programs incorporating both the tangible and intangible cost of sexual abuse to victims. Cost estimates of cognitive behavioral therapy programs in Australian prisons are compared against the tangible and intangible costs to victims of being sexually abused. Estimates are prepared that take into account a number of problematic issues. These include the range of possible recidivism rates for treatment programs; the uncertainty surrounding the number of child sexual molestation offences committed by recidivists; and the methodological problems associated with estimating the intangible costs of sexual abuse on victims. Despite the variation in parameter estimates that impact on the cost-benefit analysis of pedophile treatment programs, it is found that potential range of economic costs from child sexual abuse are substantial and the economic benefits to be derived from appropriate and effective treatment programs are high. Based on a reasonable set of parameter estimates, in-prison, cognitive therapy treatment programs for pedophiles are likely to be of net benefit to society. Despite this, a critical area of future research must include further methodological developments in estimating the quantitative impact of child sexual abuse in the community.

Potential Impacts of Increased Management Intensities on Planted Pine Growth and Yield and Timber Supply Modeling in the South

Treesearch

Jacek P. Siry; Frederick W. Cubbage; Andy J. Malmquist

1999-01-01

The South can increase pine productivity on its forest lands as increased timber prices make returns from intensified forest management more profitable. We determined the most likely management intensities on industrial lands resulting in five management intensity classes. They are used to estimate the potential growth and yield levels, and compare these to empirical...

Energy Impacts of Wide Band Gap Semiconductors in U.S. Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Fleet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warren, Joshua A.; Riddle, Matthew E.; Graziano, Diane J.

2015-08-12

Silicon carbide and gallium nitride, two leading wide band gap semiconductors with significant potential in electric vehicle power electronics, are examined from a life cycle energy perspective and compared with incumbent silicon in U.S. light-duty electric vehicle fleet. Cradle-to-gate, silicon carbide is estimated to require more than twice the energy as silicon. However, the magnitude of vehicle use phase fuel savings potential is comparatively several orders of magnitude higher than the marginal increase in cradle-to-gate energy. Gallium nitride cradle-to-gate energy requirements are estimated to be similar to silicon, with use phase savings potential similar to or exceeding that of siliconmore » carbide. Potential energy reductions in the United States vehicle fleet are examined through several scenarios that consider the market adoption potential of electric vehicles themselves, as well as the market adoption potential of wide band gap semiconductors in electric vehicles. For the 2015–2050 time frame, cumulative energy savings associated with the deployment of wide band gap semiconductors are estimated to range from 2–20 billion GJ depending on market adoption dynamics.« less

Assessing potential prescription reimbursement changes: Estimated acquisition costs in Wisconsin

PubMed Central

Kreling, David H.

1989-01-01

Potential impacts from two methods of changing prescription drug ingredient reimbursement in the Wisconsin Medicaid program were estimated. Current reimbursement amounts were compared with those resulting from either direct prices for eight manufacturers' products and average wholesale price less 10.5 percent for other products or wholesaler cost plus 5.01 percent for all products. The resulting overall average ingredient cost reimbursement reductions were 6.64 percent ($0.56 per prescription) and 6.94 percent ($0.59 per prescription) for the two methods, respectively. The results should be viewed from the perspective of both program savings and reduced pharmacists' revenues. PMID:10313098

Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, Sonia; Suárez, Cristina

2016-06-01

This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural incomes in Spanish rural areas. Present research has focused on the effects of these extreme climatological events through response functions, considering effects on crop productivity and average incomes. Among the impacts of droughts, we focused on potential effects on income distribution. The study of the effects on abnormally dry periods is therefore needed in order to perform an analysis of diverse social aspects in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a measure of the decomposition of inequality to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. Certain adaptation measures may require a better understanding of risks by the public to achieve general acceptance. We provide empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two impacts considered: farms' average income and income distribution. Our estimates consider crop production response to both biophysical and socio-economic aspects to analyse long-term implications on competitiveness and disparities. As for the results, we find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analysed.

Impact of entrainment and impingement on fish populations in the Hudson River Estuary. Volume II. Impingement impact analyses, evaluations of alternative screening devices, and critiques of utility testimony relating to density-dependent growth, the age-composition of the striped bass spawning stock, and the LMS real-time life cycle model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnthouse, L. W.; Van Winkle, W.; Golumbek, J.

1982-04-01

This volume includes a series of four exhibits relating to impacts of impingement on fish populations, together with a collection of critical evaluations of testimony prepared for the utilities by their consultants. The first exhibit is a quantitative evaluation of four sources of bias (collection efficiency, reimpingement, impingement on inoperative screens, and impingement survival) affecting estimates of the number of fish killed at Hudson River power plants. The two following exhibits contain, respectively, a detailed assessment of the impact of impingement on the Hudson River white perch population and estimates of conditional impingement mortality rates for seven Hudson River fishmore » populations. The fourth exhibit is an evaluation of the engineering feasibility and potential biological effectiveness of several types of modified intake structures proposed as alternatives to cooling towers for reducing impingement impacts. The remainder of Volume II consists of critical evaluations of the utilities' empirical evidence for the existence of density-dependent growth in young-of-the-year striped bass and white perch, of their estimate of the age-composition of the striped bass spawning stock in the Hudson River, and of their use of the Lawler, Matusky, and Skelly (LMS) Real-Time Life Cycle Model to estimate the impact of entrainment and impingement on the Hudson River striped bass population.« less

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Automatic Feature Selection and Weighting for the Formation of Homogeneous Groups for Regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curve Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Burn, D. H.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events can have devastating impacts on society. To quantify the associated risk, the IDF curve has been used to provide the essential rainfall-related information for urban planning. However, the recent changes in the rainfall climatology caused by climate change and urbanization have made the estimates provided by the traditional regional IDF approach increasingly inaccurate. This inaccuracy is mainly caused by two problems: 1) The ineffective choice of similarity indicators for the formation of a homogeneous group at different regions; and 2) An inadequate number of stations in the pooling group that does not adequately reflect the optimal balance between group size and group homogeneity or achieve the lowest uncertainty in the rainfall quantiles estimates. For the first issue, to consider the temporal difference among different meteorological and topographic indicators, a three-layer design is proposed based on three stages in the extreme rainfall formation: cloud formation, rainfall generation and change of rainfall intensity above urban surface. During the process, the impacts from climate change and urbanization are considered through the inclusion of potential relevant features at each layer. Then to consider spatial difference of similarity indicators for the homogeneous group formation at various regions, an automatic feature selection and weighting algorithm, specifically the hybrid searching algorithm of Tabu search, Lagrange Multiplier and Fuzzy C-means Clustering, is used to select the optimal combination of features for the potential optimal homogenous groups formation at a specific region. For the second issue, to compare the uncertainty of rainfall quantile estimates among potential groups, the two sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test-based sample ranking process is used. During the process, linear programming is used to rank these groups based on the confidence intervals of the quantile estimates. The proposed methodology fills the gap of including the urbanization impacts during the pooling group formation, and challenges the traditional assumption that the same set of similarity indicators can be equally effective in generating the optimal homogeneous group for regions with different geographic and meteorological characteristics.

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.;

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle Ann

2016-01-01

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle A.

2016-03-01

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

A spectral method for spatial downscaling

EPA Science Inventory

Complex computer models play a crucial role in air quality research. These models are used to evaluate potential regulatory impacts of emission control strategies and to estimate air quality in areas without monitoring data. For both of these purposes, it is important to calibrat...

DEVELOPMENT OF A DNA ARCHIVE FOR GENETIC MONITORING OF FISH POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Analysis of intraspecific genetic diversity provides a potentially powerful tool to estimate the impacts of environmental stressors on populations. Genetic responses of populations to novel stressors include dramatic shifts in genotype frequencies at loci under selection (i.e. ad...

Assessing Concentrations and Health Impacts of Air Quality Management Strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST)

PubMed Central

Milando, Chad W.; Martenies, Sheena E.; Batterman, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest the potential for FRESH-EST to identify pollution control alternatives for air quality management planning. PMID:27318620

The Impact of a Suicide Prevention Strategy on Reducing the Economic Cost of Suicide in the New South Wales Construction Industry

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Abstract. Background: Little research has been conducted into the cost and prevention of self-harm in the workplace. Aims: To quantify the economic cost of self-harm and suicide among New South Wales (NSW) construction industry (CI) workers and to examine the potential economic impact of implementing Mates in Construction (MIC). Method: Direct and indirect costs were estimated. Effectiveness was measured using the relative risk ratio (RRR). In Queensland (QLD), relative suicide risks were estimated for 5-year periods before and after the commencement of MIC. For NSW, the difference between the expected (i.e., using NSW pre-MIC [2008–2012] suicide risk) and counterfactual suicide cases (i.e., applying QLD RRR) provided an estimate of potential suicide cases averted in the post-MIC period (2013–2017). Results were adjusted using the average uptake (i.e., 9.4%) of MIC activities in QLD. Economic savings from averted cases were compared with the cost of implementing MIC. Results: The cost of self-harm and suicide in the NSW CI was AU $527 million in 2010. MIC could potentially avert 0.4 suicides, 1.01 full incapacity cases, and 4.92 short absences, generating annual savings of AU $3.66 million. For every AU $1 invested, the economic return is approximately AU $4.6. Conclusion: MIC represents a positive economic investment in workplace safety. PMID:26695869

The Impact of a Suicide Prevention Strategy on Reducing the Economic Cost of Suicide in the New South Wales Construction Industry.

PubMed

Doran, Christopher M; Ling, Rod; Gullestrup, Jorgen; Swannell, Sarah; Milner, Allison

2016-03-01

Little research has been conducted into the cost and prevention of self-harm in the workplace. To quantify the economic cost of self-harm and suicide among New South Wales (NSW) construction industry (CI) workers and to examine the potential economic impact of implementing Mates in Construction (MIC). Direct and indirect costs were estimated. Effectiveness was measured using the relative risk ratio (RRR). In Queensland (QLD), relative suicide risks were estimated for 5-year periods before and after the commencement of MIC. For NSW, the difference between the expected (i.e., using NSW pre-MIC [2008-2012] suicide risk) and counterfactual suicide cases (i.e., applying QLD RRR) provided an estimate of potential suicide cases averted in the post-MIC period (2013-2017). Results were adjusted using the average uptake (i.e., 9.4%) of MIC activities in QLD. Economic savings from averted cases were compared with the cost of implementing MIC. The cost of self-harm and suicide in the NSW CI was AU $527 million in 2010. MIC could potentially avert 0.4 suicides, 1.01 full incapacity cases, and 4.92 short absences, generating annual savings of AU $3.66 million. For every AU $1 invested, the economic return is approximately AU $4.6. MIC represents a positive economic investment in workplace safety.

"Hot Spots" of Land Atmosphere Coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Guo, Zhi-Chang; Bonan, Gordan; Chan, Edmond; Cox, Peter; Gordon, T. C.; Kanae, Shinjiro; Kowalczyk, Eva; Lawrence, David

2004-01-01

Previous estimates of land-atmosphere interaction (the impact of soil moisture on precipitation) have been limited by a severe paucity of relevant observational data and by the model-dependence of the various computational estimates. To counter this limitation, a dozen climate modeling groups have recently performed the same highly-controlled numerical experiment as part of a coordinated intercomparison project. This allows, for the first time ever, a superior multi-model approach to the estimation of the regions on the globe where precipitation is affected by soil moisture anomalies during Northern Hemisphere summer. Such estimation has many potential benefits; it can contribute, for example, to seasonal rainfall prediction efforts.

Achieving a Healthy Zoning Policy in Baltimore: Results of a Health Impact Assessment of the TransForm Baltimore Zoning Code Rewrite

PubMed Central

Greiner, Amelia; Fichtenberg, Caroline M.; Feingold, Beth J.; Ellen, Jonathan M.; Jennings, Jacky M.

2013-01-01

Objectives The social determinants of health (SDH) include factors apart from genes and biology that affect population health. Zoning is an urban planning tool that influences neighborhood built environments. We describe the methods and results of a health impact assessment (HIA) of a rezoning effort in Baltimore, Maryland, called TransForm Baltimore. We highlight findings specific to physical activity, violent crime, and obesity. Methods We conducted a multistage HIA of TransForm Baltimore using HIA practice guidelines. Key informant interviews identified focus areas for the quantitative assessment. A literature review and a zoning code analysis evaluated potential impacts on neighborhood factors including physical activity, violent crime, and obesity. We estimated potential impacts in high- and low-poverty neighborhoods. The findings resulted in recommendations to improve the health-promoting potential of TransForm Baltimore. Results Mixed-use and transit-oriented development were key goals of TransForm Baltimore. Health impacts identified by stakeholders included walkability and healthy communities. For Baltimore residents, we estimated that (1) the percentage of people living in districts allowing mixed-use and off-premise alcohol outlets would nearly triple, (2) 18% would live in transit-oriented development zones, and (3) all residents would live in districts with new lighting and landscaping guidelines. Limiting the concentration of off-premise alcohol outlets represented an opportunity to address health promotion. Conclusions Changes to Baltimore's zoning code could improve population health including decreasing violent crime. HIAs are an important platform for applying SDH to public health practice. This HIA specifically linked municipal zoning policy with promoting healthier neighborhoods. PMID:24179284

Evaluating potential spectral impacts of various artificial lights on melatonin suppression, photosynthesis, and star visibility.

PubMed

Aubé, Martin; Roby, Johanne; Kocifaj, Miroslav

2013-01-01

Artificial light at night can be harmful to the environment, and interferes with fauna and flora, star visibility, and human health. To estimate the relative impact of a lighting device, its radiant power, angular photometry and detailed spectral power distribution have to be considered. In this paper we focus on the spectral power distribution. While specific spectral characteristics can be considered harmful during the night, they can be considered advantageous during the day. As an example, while blue-rich Metal Halide lamps can be problematic for human health, star visibility and vegetation photosynthesis during the night, they can be highly appropriate during the day for plant growth and light therapy. In this paper we propose three new indices to characterize lamp spectra. These indices have been designed to allow a quick estimation of the potential impact of a lamp spectrum on melatonin suppression, photosynthesis, and star visibility. We used these new indices to compare various lighting technologies objectively. We also considered the transformation of such indices according to the propagation of light into the atmosphere as a function of distance to the observer. Among other results, we found that low pressure sodium, phosphor-converted amber light emitting diodes (LED) and LED 2700 K lamps filtered with the new Ledtech's Equilib filter showed a lower or equivalent potential impact on melatonin suppression and star visibility in comparison to high pressure sodium lamps. Low pressure sodium, LED 5000 K-filtered and LED 2700 K-filtered lamps had a lower impact on photosynthesis than did high pressure sodium lamps. Finally, we propose these indices as new standards for the lighting industry to be used in characterizing their lighting technologies. We hope that their use will favor the design of new environmentally and health-friendly lighting technologies.

Evaluating Potential Spectral Impacts of Various Artificial Lights on Melatonin Suppression, Photosynthesis, and Star Visibility

PubMed Central

Aubé, Martin; Roby, Johanne; Kocifaj, Miroslav

2013-01-01

Artificial light at night can be harmful to the environment, and interferes with fauna and flora, star visibility, and human health. To estimate the relative impact of a lighting device, its radiant power, angular photometry and detailed spectral power distribution have to be considered. In this paper we focus on the spectral power distribution. While specific spectral characteristics can be considered harmful during the night, they can be considered advantageous during the day. As an example, while blue-rich Metal Halide lamps can be problematic for human health, star visibility and vegetation photosynthesis during the night, they can be highly appropriate during the day for plant growth and light therapy. In this paper we propose three new indices to characterize lamp spectra. These indices have been designed to allow a quick estimation of the potential impact of a lamp spectrum on melatonin suppression, photosynthesis, and star visibility. We used these new indices to compare various lighting technologies objectively. We also considered the transformation of such indices according to the propagation of light into the atmosphere as a function of distance to the observer. Among other results, we found that low pressure sodium, phosphor-converted amber light emitting diodes (LED) and LED 2700 K lamps filtered with the new Ledtech’s Equilib filter showed a lower or equivalent potential impact on melatonin suppression and star visibility in comparison to high pressure sodium lamps. Low pressure sodium, LED 5000 K-filtered and LED 2700 K-filtered lamps had a lower impact on photosynthesis than did high pressure sodium lamps. Finally, we propose these indices as new standards for the lighting industry to be used in characterizing their lighting technologies. We hope that their use will favor the design of new environmentally and health-friendly lighting technologies. PMID:23861808

H2@Scale: Technical and Economic Potential of Hydrogen as an Energy Intermediate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, Mark F; Jadun, Paige; Pivovar, Bryan S

The H2@Scale concept is focused on developing hydrogen as an energy carrier and using hydrogen's properties to improve the national energy system. Specifically hydrogen has the abilities to (1) supply a clean energy source for industry and transportation and (2) increase the profitability of variable renewable electricity generators such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV) farms by providing value for otherwise potentially-curtailed electricity. Thus the concept also has the potential to reduce oil dependency by providing a low-carbon fuel for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants such as NOx, and support domestic energymore » production, manufacturing, and U.S. economic competitiveness. The analysis reported here focuses on the potential market size and value proposition for the H2@Scale concept. It involves three analysis phases: 1. Initial phase estimating the technical potential for hydrogen markets and the resources required to meet them; 2. National-scale analysis of the economic potential for hydrogen and the interactions between willingness to pay by hydrogen users and the cost to produce hydrogen from various sources; and 3. In-depth analysis of spatial and economic issues impacting hydrogen production and utilization and the markets. Preliminary analysis of the technical potential indicates that the technical potential for hydrogen use is approximately 60 million metric tons (MMT) annually for light duty FCEVs, heavy duty vehicles, ammonia production, oil refining, biofuel hydrotreating, metals refining, and injection into the natural gas system. The technical potential of utility-scale PV and wind generation independently are much greater than that necessary to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen. Uranium, natural gas, and coal reserves are each sufficient to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen in addition to their current uses for decades to centuries. National estimates of the economic potential of hydrogen production using steam methane reforming of natural gas, high temperature electrolysis coupled with nuclear power plants, and low temperature electrolysis are reported. To generate the estimates, supply curves for those technologies are used. They are compared to demand curves that describe the market size for hydrogen uses and willingness to pay for that hydrogen. Scenarios are developed at prices where supply meets demand and are used to estimate energy use, emissions, and economic impacts.« less

Potential Size of and Value Proposition for H2@Scale Concept

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, Mark F; Jadun, Paige; Pivovar, Bryan S

The H2@Scale concept is focused on developing hydrogen as an energy carrier and using hydrogen's properties to improve the national energy system. Specifically hydrogen has the abilities to (1) supply a clean energy source for industry and transportation and (2) increase the profitability of variable renewable electricity generators such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV) farms by providing value for otherwise potentially-curtailed electricity. Thus the concept also has the potential to reduce oil dependency by providing a low-carbon fuel for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants such as NOx, and support domestic energymore » production, manufacturing, and U.S. economic competitiveness. The analysis reported here focuses on the potential market size and value proposition for the H2@Scale concept. It involves three analysis phases: 1. Initial phase estimating the technical potential for hydrogen markets and the resources required to meet them; 2. National-scale analysis of the economic potential for hydrogen and the interactions between willingness to pay by hydrogen users and the cost to produce hydrogen from various sources; and 3. In-depth analysis of spatial and economic issues impacting hydrogen production and utilization and the markets. Preliminary analysis of the technical potential indicates that the technical potential for hydrogen use is approximately 60 million metric tons (MMT) annually for light duty FCEVs, heavy duty vehicles, ammonia production, oil refining, biofuel hydrotreating, metals refining, and injection into the natural gas system. The technical potential of utility-scale PV and wind generation independently are much greater than that necessary to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen. Uranium, natural gas, and coal reserves are each sufficient to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen in addition to their current uses for decades to centuries. National estimates of the economic potential of hydrogen production using steam methane reforming of natural gas, high temperature electrolysis coupled with nuclear power plants, and low temperature electrolysis are reported. To generate the estimates, supply curves for those technologies are used. They are compared to demand curves that describe the market size for hydrogen uses and willingness to pay for that hydrogen. Scenarios are developed at prices where supply meets demand and are used to estimate energy use, emissions, and economic impacts.« less

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of twomore » naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires.« less

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India

PubMed Central

Chatterjee, Susmita; Rao, Krishna D.; Dowdy, David W.

2016-01-01

Some of the most promising vaccines in the pipeline for tuberculosis (TB) target adolescents and adults. Unlike for childhood vaccines, high-coverage population-wide vaccination is significantly more challenging for adult vaccines. Here, we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical ‘hotspots’ compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population. We evaluated the impact of targeted and untargeted vaccine delivery strategies in India—a country that bears more than 25% of global TB burden, and may be a potential early adopter of the vaccine. We collected TB notification data and conducted a demonstration study in the state of Gujarat to validate our estimates of heterogeneity in TB incidence. We then projected the impact of randomly vaccinating 8% of adults in a single mass campaign to a spatially targeted vaccination preferentially delivered to 80% of adults in the hotspots, with both strategies augmented by continuous adolescent vaccination. In consultation with vaccine developers, we considered a vaccine efficacy of 60%, and evaluated the population-level impact after 10 years of vaccination. Spatial heterogeneity in TB notification (per 100 000/year) was modest in Gujarat: 190 in the hotspots versus 125 in the remaining population. At this level of heterogeneity, the spatially targeted vaccination was projected to reduce TB incidence by 28% after 10 years, compared with a 24% reduction projected to achieve via untargeted vaccination—a 1.17-fold augmentation in the impact of vaccination by spatially targeting. The degree of the augmentation was robust to reasonable variation in natural history assumptions, but depended strongly on the extent of spatial heterogeneity and mixing between the hotspot and general population. Identifying high-incidence hotspots and quantifying spatial mixing patterns are critical to accurate estimation of the value of targeted intervention strategies. PMID:27009179

Impacts of Potential Changes in Land Use, Climate, and Water Use on Water Availability, Coastal Carolinas Region, Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurley, L. N.; Garcia, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sustainable growth in coastal areas with rapidly increasing populations, such as the coastal regions of North and South Carolina, relies on an understanding of the current state of coastal natural resources coupled with the ability to assess future impacts of changing coastal communities and resources. Changes in climate, water use, population, and land use (e.g. urbanization) will place additional stress on societal and ecological systems that are already competing for water resources. The potential effects of these stressors on water availability are not fully known. To meet societal and ecological needs, water resources management and planning efforts require estimates of likely impacts of population growth, land-use, and climate. Two Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) hydrologic models were developed to help address the challenges that water managers face in the Carolinas: the (1) Cape Fear and (2) Pee Dee drainage basins. SWAT is a basin-scale, process-based watershed model with the capability of simulating water-management scenarios. Model areas were divided into two square mile sub-basins to evaluate ecological response at headwater streams. The sub-basins were subsequently divided into smaller, discrete hydrologic response units based on land use, slope, and soil type. Monthly and annual water-use data were used for 2000 to 2014 and included estimates of municipal, industrial, agricultural, and commercial water use. Models were calibrated for 2000 to 2014 and potential future streamflows were estimated through 2060 based on a suite of scenarios that integrated land use change projections, climate projections and water-use forecasts. The approaches and new techniques developed as part of this research could be applied to other coastal areas that face similar current and future water availability demands.

Methods for Sexually Transmitted Disease Prevention Programs to Estimate the Health and Medical Cost Impact of Changes in Their Budget.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Ludovic, Jennifer A; Berruti, Andrés A; Gift, Thomas L

2018-01-01

The purpose of this article was to describe methods that sexually transmitted disease (STD) programs can use to estimate the potential effects of changes in their budgets in terms of disease burden and direct medical costs. We proposed 2 distinct approaches to estimate the potential effect of changes in funding on subsequent STD burden, one based on an analysis of state-level STD prevention funding and gonorrhea case rates and one based on analyses of the effect of Disease Intervention Specialist (DIS) activities on gonorrhea case rates. We also illustrated how programs can estimate the impact of budget changes on intermediate outcomes, such as partner services. Finally, we provided an example of the application of these methods for a hypothetical state STD prevention program. The methods we proposed can provide general approximations of how a change in STD prevention funding might affect the level of STD prevention services provided, STD incidence rates, and the direct medical cost burden of STDs. In applying these methods to a hypothetical state, a reduction in annual funding of US $200,000 was estimated to lead to subsequent increases in STDs of 1.6% to 3.6%. Over 10 years, the reduction in funding totaled US $2.0 million, whereas the cumulative, additional direct medical costs of the increase in STDs totaled US $3.7 to US $8.4 million. The methods we proposed, though subject to important limitations, can allow STD prevention personnel to calculate evidence-based estimates of the effects of changes in their budget.

Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

2014-05-01

Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable climatic and soil resources. During this century, traditional Siberian crops are predicted to gradually shift northwards and new crops, which are currently non-existent but potentially important in a warmer climate, could be introduced in the extreme south. In a future warmer climate, the economic effect of climate change impacts on agriculture was estimated based on a production function approach and the Ricardian model. The production function estimated climate impacts of temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide levels. The Ricardian model examined climate impacts on the net rent or value of farmland at various regions. The models produced the optimal distribution of agricultural lands between crop, livestock, and forestry sectors to compensate economic losses in forestry in potential landuse areas depending on climatic change.

Life cycle assessment of first-generation biofuels using a nitrogen crop model.

PubMed

Gallejones, P; Pardo, G; Aizpurua, A; del Prado, A

2015-02-01

This paper presents an alternative approach to assess the impacts of biofuel production using a method integrating the simulated values of a new semi-empirical model at the crop production stage within a life cycle assessment (LCA). This new approach enabled us to capture some of the effects that climatic conditions and crop management have on soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, crop yields and other nitrogen (N) losses. This analysis considered the whole system to produce 1 MJ of biofuel (bioethanol from wheat and biodiesel from rapeseed). Non-renewable energy use, global warming potential (GWP), acidification, eutrophication and land competition are considered as potential environmental impacts. Different co-products were handled by system expansion. The aim of this study was (i) to evaluate the variability due to site-specific conditions of climate and fertiliser management of the LCA of two different products: biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from wheat produced in the Basque Country (Northern Spain), and (ii) to improve the estimations of the LCA impacts due to N losses (N₂O, NO₃, NH₃), normally estimated with unspecific emission factors (EFs), that contribute to the impact categories analysed in the LCA of biofuels at local scale. Using biodiesel and bioethanol derived from rapeseed and wheat instead of conventional diesel and gasoline, respectively, would reduce non-renewable energy dependence (-55%) and GWP (-40%), on average, but would increase eutrophication (42 times more potential). An uncertainty analysis for GWP impact showed that the variability associated with the prediction of the major contributor to global warming potential (soil N₂O) can significantly affect the results from the LCA. Therefore the use of a model to account for local factors will improve the precision of the assessment and reduce the uncertainty associated with the convenience of the use of biofuels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Warm Water Entrainment Impacts and Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of a Proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Pilot Plant Offshore Oahu, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauer, Whitney Blanchard

Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a marine renewable energy technology that uses the temperature difference of large volumes of cold deep and warm surface seawater in tropical regions to generate electricity. One anticipated environmental impact of OTEC operations is the entrainment and subsequent mortality of ichthyoplankton (fish eggs and larvae) from the withdrawal of cold and warm seawater. The potential ichthyoplankton loss from the warm water intake was estimated for a proposed 10 MW OTEC pilot plant offshore Oahu, HI based on ambient vertical distribution data. The estimated losses due to entrainment from the warm water intake were 8.418E+02 larvae/1000 m3, 3.26E+06 larvae/day, and 1.19E+09 larvae/year. The potential entrained larvae/year is 1.86 X greater than at the Kahe Generating Station (Kapolei, HI), a 582 MW oil-fired power plant. Extrapolating to age-1 equivalence (9.2E+02 and 2.9E+02 yellowfin and skipjack tuna, respectively), the estimated yearly losses from warm water entrainment of yellowfin and skipjack tuna fish eggs and larvae represent 0.25-0.26 % and 0.09-0.11 % of Hawaii's commercial yellowfin and skipjack tuna industry in 2011 and 2012. An environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) was developed for the proposed OTEC plant operating for 20 and 40 years with availability factors of 0.85, 0.95, and 1.0 to determine the global warming potential (GWP) and cumulative energy demand (CED) impacts. For a 20 year operational OTEC plant, the GWP, CED, energy return on investment (EROI), and energy payback time (EPBT) ranged from 0.047 to 0.055 kg CO2eq/kWh, 0.678 to 0.798 MJ/kWh, 4.51 to 5.31 (unitless), and 3.77 to 4.43 years, respectively. For a 40 year operational OTEC plant, the GWP, CED, EROI, and EBPT ranged from 0.036 to 0.043 kg CO2eq/kWh, 0.527 to 0.620 MJ/kWh, 5.81 to 6.83 (unitless), and 5.85 to 6.89 years, respectively. The GWP impacts are within the range of renewable energy technologies and less than conventional electricity generation, with the exception of nuclear power. As part of the LCA, an ichthyoplankton entrainment impact assessment method was developed to estimate potential loss from the warm water intake for the proposed OTEC plant and for six coastal nuclear power facilities that use once-through cooling technology. Larval fish entrainment (#/kWh) was significantly greater (p<0.026) for the proposed OTEC facility, ranging from 10.0 to 11.7 larvae/kWh due to different capacity factors, than for the six nuclear power facilities that ranged from 0.08 to 0.78 larvae/kWh. While this research did not investigate OTEC technology development and economics, OTEC would be a favorable option for reducing the GWP and the reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation in HI. The impact of ichthyoplankton mortality due to warm water entrainment for a 10 MW OTEC plant offshore Oahu, HI would likely be acceptable as there are examples of similar water withdrawals for electricity generation. Biological monitoring of a 10 MW facility would verify estimated environmental impacts of the warm water withdrawal and provide new information on the cold water withdrawal before advancing to a commercial (e.g., 100 MW) scale facility.

The Urban Food-Water Nexus: Modeling Water Footprints of Urban Agriculture using CityCrop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tooke, T. R.; Lathuilliere, M. J.; Coops, N. C.; Johnson, M. S.

2014-12-01

Urban agriculture provides a potential contribution towards more sustainable food production and mitigating some of the human impacts that accompany volatility in regional and global food supply. When considering the capacity of urban landscapes to produce food products, the impact of urban water demand required for food production in cities is often neglected. Urban agricultural studies also tend to be undertaken at broad spatial scales, overlooking the heterogeneity of urban form that exerts an extreme influence on the urban energy balance. As a result, urban planning and management practitioners require, but often do not have, spatially explicit and detailed information to support informed urban agricultural policy, especially as it relates to potential conflicts with sustainability goals targeting water-use. In this research we introduce a new model, CityCrop, a hybrid evapotranspiration-plant growth model that incorporates detailed digital representations of the urban surface and biophysical impacts of the built environment and urban trees to account for the daily variations in net surface radiation. The model enables very fine-scale (sub-meter) estimates of water footprints of potential urban agricultural production. Results of the model are demonstrated for an area in the City of Vancouver, Canada and compared to aspatial model estimates, demonstrating the unique considerations and sensitivities for current and future water footprints of urban agriculture and the implications for urban water planning and policy.

Life Cycle Assessment and Release Studies for 15 Nanosilver-Enabled Consumer Products: Investigating Hotspots and Patterns of Contribution.

PubMed

Pourzahedi, Leila; Vance, Marina; Eckelman, Matthew J

2017-06-20

Increasing use of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in consumer products as antimicrobial agents has prompted extensive research toward the evaluation of their potential release to the environment and subsequent ecotoxicity to aquatic organisms. It has also been shown that AgNPs can pose significant burdens to the environment from life cycle emissions associated with their production, but these impacts must be considered in the context of actual products that contain nanosilver. Here, a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment for the production of 15 different AgNP-enabled consumer products was performed, coupled with release studies of those same products, thus providing a consistent analytical platform for investigation of potential nanosilver impacts across a range of product types and concentrations. Environmental burdens were assessed over multiple impact categories defined by the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI 2.1) method. Depending on the product composition and silver loading, the contribution of AgNP synthesis to the overall impacts was seen to vary over a wide range from 1% to 99%. Release studies found that solid polymeric samples lost more silver during wash compared to fibrous materials. Estimates of direct ecotoxicity impacts of AgNP releases from those products with the highest leaching rates resulted in lower impact levels compared to cradle-to-gate ecotoxicity from production for those products. Considering both cradle-to-gate production impacts and nanoparticle release studies, in conjunction with estimates of life cycle environmental and health benefits of nanoparticle incorporation, can inform sustainable nanoenabled product design.

Assessing the Benefits of Global Climate Stabilization Within an Integrated Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, R. H.

2015-12-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been a number of studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry. However, relatively few studies explore climate change impacts on both agriculture and forests simultaneously, including the interactions between alternative land uses and implications for market outcomes. Additionally, there is a lack of detailed analyses of the effects of stabilization scenarios relative to unabated emissions scenarios. Such analyses are important for developing estimates of the benefits of those stabilization scenarios, which can play a vital role in assessing tradeoffs associated with allocating resources across alternative mitigation and adaptation activities. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Summary Impacts of Modeled Provisions of the 2003 Conference Energy Bill

EIA Publications

2004-01-01

This service report was undertaken at the February 2, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003. This report summarizes the CEB provisions that can be analyzed using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and have the potential to affect energy consumption, supply, and prices. The impacts are estimated by comparing the projections with the CEB provisions to the AEO2004 Reference Case.

Recent tobacco tax rate adjustment and its potential impact on tobacco control in China.

PubMed

Hu, Teh-Wei; Mao, Zhengzhong; Shi, Jian

2010-02-01

To compare the new tobacco tax structure effective from May 2009 with the tax structure before May 2009 and to analyse its potential impact. Published government statistics and estimated price elasticities of the demand for cigarettes are used to estimate the impact of the new tax rate adjustment on cigarette consumption and population health. The new adjustment increased the tax rate by 11.7% points at the producer price level. Converting this 11.7% point increase to the retail price level would mean an increase of 3.4% points in the retail price tax rate. Thus, China's new cigarette tax rate at the retail level would be 43.4% instead of the previous 40%. The primary motivation for the recent Chinese government tobacco tax adjustment is to raise additional government revenue. Because the additional ad valorem tax has not yet been transferred to smokers, there is no public health benefit. It is hoped that the Chinese government will pass along these taxes to the retail price level, which would result in between 640,000 and two million smokers quitting smoking and between 210,000 and 700,000 quitters avoiding smoking-related premature death.

Estimating the potential health impact and costs of implementing a local policy for food procurement to reduce the consumption of sodium in the county of Los Angeles.

PubMed

Gase, Lauren N; Kuo, Tony; Dunet, Diane; Schmidt, Steven M; Simon, Paul A; Fielding, Jonathan E

2011-08-01

We examined approaches to reduce sodium content of food served in settings operated or funded by the government of the County of Los Angeles, California. We adapted health impact assessment methods to mathematically simulate various levels of reduction in the sodium content of food served by the County of Los Angeles and to estimate the reductions' potential impacts on mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) among food-service customers. We used data provided by county government food-service vendors to generate these simulations. Our analysis predicted that if the postulated sodium-reduction strategies were implemented, adults would consume, on average, 233 fewer milligrams of sodium each day. This would correspond to an average decrease of 0.71 millimeters of mercury in SBP among adult hypertensives, 388 fewer cases of uncontrolled hypertension in the study population, and an annual decrease of $629,724 in direct health care costs. Our findings suggest that a food-procurement policy can contribute to positive health and economic effects at the local level. Our approach may serve as an example of sodium-reduction analysis for other jurisdictions to follow.

Drought allocations using the Systems Impact Assessment Model: Klamath River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, M.; Campbell, S.G.

2005-01-01

Water supply and allocation scenarios for the Klamath River, Ore. and Calif., were evaluated using the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM), a decision support system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. SIAM is a set of models with a graphical user interface that simulates water supply and delivery in a managed river system, water quality, and fish production. Simulation results are presented for drought conditions, one aspect of Klamath River water operations. The Klamath River Basin has experienced critically dry conditions in 1992, 1994, and 2001. Drought simulations are useful to estimate the impacts of specific legal or institutional flow constraints. In addition, simulations help to identify potential adverse water quality consequences including evaluating the potential for reducing adverse temperature impacts on anadromous fish. In all drought simulations, water supply was insufficient to fully meet upstream and downstream targets for endangered species.

The greenhouse gas intensity and potential biofuel production capacity of maize stover harvest in the US Midwest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Curtis D.; Zhang, Xuesong; Reddy, Ashwan D.

Agricultural residues are important sources of feedstock for a cellulosic biofuels industry that is being developed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy independence. While the US Midwest has been recognized as key to providing maize stover for meeting near-term cellulosic biofuel production goals, there is uncertainty that such feedstocks can produce biofuels that meet federal cellulosic standards. Here, we conducted extensive site-level calibration of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) terrestrial ecosystems model and applied the model at high spatial resolution across the US Midwest to improve estimates of the maximum production potential and greenhouse gas emissions expectedmore » from continuous maize residue-derived biofuels. A comparison of methodologies for calculating the soil carbon impacts of residue harvesting demonstrates the large impact of study duration, depth of soil considered, and inclusion of litter carbon in soil carbon change calculations on the estimated greenhouse gas intensity of maize stover-derived biofuels. Using the most representative methodology for assessing long-term residue harvesting impacts, we estimate that only 5.3 billion liters per year (bly) of ethanol, or 8.7% of the near-term US cellulosic biofuel demand, could be met under common no-till farming practices. However, appreciably more feedstock becomes available at modestly higher emissions levels, with potential for 89.0 bly of ethanol production meeting US advanced biofuel standards. Adjustments to management practices, such as adding cover crops to no-till management, will be required to produce sufficient quantities of residue meeting the greenhouse gas emission reduction standard for cellulosic biofuels. Considering the rapid increase in residue availability with modest relaxations in GHG reduction level, it is expected that management practices with modest benefits to soil carbon would allow considerable expansion of potential cellulosic biofuel production.« less

Does Implementation of Biomathematical Models Mitigate Fatigue and Fatigue-related Risks in Emergency Medical Services Operations? A Systematic Review

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-11

Background: Work schedules like those of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel have been associated with increased risk of fatigue-related impairment. Biomathematical modeling is a means of objectively estimating the potential impacts of fatigue...

Relationship of Automobile Characteristics to List Prices and Profit Margins -- A Preliminary Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-08-01

The report describes research on potential impacts of fuel economy regulations on the U.S. automobile industry. The study focused on the possible effects of auto "down-sizing" on manufacture profit margins. Historical price data were used to estimate...

Climate change impacts on soil erosion in the Great Lakes Region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, especially for regions dominated by agricultural land use, as soil loss estimates will be helpful in identifying areas susceptible to erosion, targeting ...

A GLOBAL INVENTORY OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS FROM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an effort to assess the potential impacts associated with global climate change, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development is supporting global atmospheric chemistry research by developing global scale estimates of volatile organic c...

How Do Land-Use and Climate Change Affect Watershed Health? A Scenario-Based Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

With the growing emphasis on biofuel crops and potential impacts of climate variability and change, there is a need to quantify their effects on hydrological processes for developing watershed management plans. Environmental consequences are currently estimated by utilizing comp...

Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

upon the fish for their nutrition , health, and economy. Additional studies need to be done to assess this potential threat to the Alaska...the Yucatan . (Lincoln et al., 1998) Several studies of bird migrations using NEXRAD (weather radar) have allowed researchers to estimate the

A study of industrial hydrogen and syngas supply systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amos, W. J.; Solomon, J.; Eliezer, K. F.

1979-01-01

The potential and incentives required for supplying hydrogen and syngas feedstocks to the U.S. chemical industry from coal gasification systems were evaluated. Future hydrogen and syngas demand for chemical manufacture was estimated by geographic area and projected economics for hydrogen and syngas manufacture was estimated with geographic area of manufacture and plant size as parameters. Natural gas, oil and coal feedstocks were considered. Problem areas presently affecting the commercial feasibility of coal gasification discussed include the impact of potential process improvements, factors involved in financing coal gasification plants, regulatory barriers affecting coal gasification, coal mining/transportation, air quality regulations, and competitive feedstock pricing barriers. The potential for making coal gasification the least costly H2 and syngas supply option. Options to stimulate coal gasification system development are discussed.

Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.

2016-12-01

Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also apply instantaneous adaptation in each year to the regional relationship corresponding to each region's new climate. We show that the rate of adaptation is the critical obstacle to further mortality benefits, while the small observed range of regional adaptations is causing the low adaptive benefits in crime.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peche, Roberto, E-mail: roberto.peche@ehu.es; Rodriguez, Esther, E-mail: esther.rodriguez@ehu.e

This study shows the practical application of the EIA method based on fuzzy logic proposed by the authors (Peche and Rodriguez, 2009) to a simplified case of study-the activity of a petrol station throughout its exploitation. The intensity (p{sub 1}), the extent (p{sub 2}) and the persistence (p{sub 3}) were the properties selected to describe the impacts and their respective assessment functions v-bar{sub i}=f(p-bar{sub i}) were determined. The main actions (A) and potentially affected environmental factors (F) were selected. Every impact was identified by a pair A-F and the values of the three impact properties were estimated for each ofmore » them by means of triangular fuzzy numbers. Subsequently, the fuzzy estimation of every impact was carried out, the estimation of the impact A{sub 1}-F{sub 2} (V-bar{sub 1}) being explained in detail. Every impact was simultaneously represented by its corresponding generalised confidence interval and membership function. Since the membership functions of all impacts were similar to triangular fuzzy numbers, a triangular approach (TA) was used to describe every impact. A triangular approach coefficient (TAC) was introduced to quantify the similarity of each fuzzy number and its corresponding triangular approach, where TAC (V-bar) element of (0, 1] and TAC being 1 when the fuzzy number is triangular. The TACs-ranging from 0.96 to 0.99-proved that TAs were valid in all cases. Next, the total positive and negative impacts-TV-bar{sup +} and TV-bar{sup -} were calculated and later, the fuzzy value of the total environmental impact TV-bar was determined from them. Finally, the defuzzification of TV-bar led to the punctual impact estimator TV{sup (1)} = -88.50 and its corresponding uncertainty interval [{delta}{sub l}(TV-bar),{delta}{sub r}(TV-bar)]=[6.52,6.96], which represent the total value of the EI. In conclusion, the EIA method enabled the integration of heterogeneous impacts, which exerted influence on environmental factors of a very diverse nature in very different ways, into a global impact indicator.« less

Economic Impact of Dengue Illness and the Cost-Effectiveness of Future Vaccination Programs in Singapore

PubMed Central

Carrasco, Luis R.; Lee, Linda K.; Lee, Vernon J.; Ooi, Eng Eong; Shepard, Donald S.; Thein, Tun L.; Gan, Victor; Cook, Alex R.; Lye, David; Ng, Lee Ching; Leo, Yee Sin

2011-01-01

Background Dengue illness causes 50–100 million infections worldwide and threatens 2.5 billion people in the tropical and subtropical regions. Little is known about the disease burden and economic impact of dengue in higher resourced countries or the cost-effectiveness of potential dengue vaccines in such settings. Methods and Findings We estimate the direct and indirect costs of dengue from hospitalized and ambulatory cases in Singapore. We consider inter alia the impacts of dengue on the economy using the human-capital and the friction cost methods. Disease burden was estimated using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine program was evaluated. The average economic impact of dengue illness in Singapore from 2000 to 2009 in constant 2010 US$ ranged between $0.85 billion and $1.15 billion, of which control costs constitute 42%–59%. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated an annual average disease burden of 9–14 DALYs per 100 000 habitants, making it comparable to diseases such as hepatitis B or syphilis. The proportion of symptomatic dengue cases detected by the national surveillance system was estimated to be low, and to decrease with age. Under population projections by the United Nations, the price per dose threshold for which vaccines stop being more cost-effective than the current vector control program ranged from $50 for mass vaccination requiring 3 doses and only conferring 10 years of immunity to $300 for vaccination requiring 2 doses and conferring lifetime immunity. The thresholds for these vaccine programs to not be cost-effective for Singapore were $100 and $500 per dose respectively. Conclusions Dengue illness presents a serious economic and disease burden in Singapore. Dengue vaccines are expected to be cost-effective if reasonably low prices are adopted and will help to reduce the economic and disease burden of dengue in Singapore substantially. PMID:22206028

Cannabis (Cannabis sativa or C. indica) agriculture and the environment: a systematic, spatially-explicit survey and potential impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butsic, Van; Brenner, Jacob C.

2016-04-01

Cannabis agriculture is a multi-billion dollar industry in the United States that is changing rapidly with policy liberalization. Anecdotal observations fuel speculation about associated environmental impacts, and there is an urgent need for systematic empirical research. An example from Humboldt County California, a principal cannabis-producing region, involved digitizing 4428 grow sites in 60 watersheds with Google Earth imagery. Grows were clustered, suggesting disproportionate impacts in ecologically important locales. Sixty-eight percent of grows were >500 m from developed roads, suggesting risk of landscape fragmentation. Twenty-two percent were on steep slopes, suggesting risk of erosion, sedimentation, and landslides. Five percent were <100 m from threatened fish habitat, and the estimated 297 954 plants would consume an estimated 700 000 m3 of water, suggesting risk of stream impacts. The extent and magnitude of cannabis agriculture documented in our study demands that it be regulated and researched on par with conventional agriculture.

Mapping Urban Risk: Flood Hazards, Race, & Environmental Justice In New York”

PubMed Central

Maantay, Juliana; Maroko, Andrew

2009-01-01

This paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating population data aggregated by census tracts or other units, for more realistic population distribution/location. A newly-developed mapping method, the Cadastral-based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), calculates population in hyper-heterogeneous urban areas better than traditional mapping techniques. A case study estimating population potentially impacted by flood hazard in New York City compares the impacted population determined by CEDS with that derived by centroid-containment method and filtered areal weighting interpolation. Compared to CEDS, 37 percent and 72 percent fewer people are estimated to be at risk from floods city-wide, using conventional areal weighting of census data, and centroid-containment selection, respectively. Undercounting of impacted population could have serious implications for emergency management and disaster planning. Ethnic/racial populations are also spatially disaggregated to determine any environmental justice impacts with flood risk. Minorities are disproportionately undercounted using traditional methods. Underestimating more vulnerable sub-populations impairs preparedness and relief efforts. PMID:20047020

Assessing the impact of Syrian refugees on earthquake fatality estimations in southeast Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Bradley; Paradise, Thomas

2018-01-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into local cities, towns, and villages - placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong earthquake shaking. Yet displaced populations are often unaccounted for in the census-based population models used in earthquake fatality estimations. This study creates a minimally modeled refugee gridded population model and analyzes its impact on semi-empirical fatality estimations across southeast Turkey. Daytime and nighttime fatality estimates were produced for five fault segments at earthquake magnitudes 5.8, 6.4, and 7.0. Baseline fatality estimates calculated from census-based population estimates for the study area varied in scale from tens to thousands of fatalities, with higher death totals in nighttime scenarios. Refugee fatality estimations were analyzed across 500 semi-random building occupancy distributions. Median fatality estimates for refugee populations added non-negligible contributions to earthquake fatalities at four of five fault locations, increasing total fatality estimates by 7-27 %. These findings communicate the necessity of incorporating refugee statistics into earthquake fatality estimations in southeast Turkey and the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-10-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes. PMID:27703191

Personal Distress and Sympathy Differentially Influence Health Care Professional and Parents' Estimation of Child Procedure-Related Pain.

PubMed

Caes, Line; Goubert, Liesbet; Devos, Patricia; Verlooy, Joris; Benoit, Yves; Vervoort, Tine

2017-02-01

Caregivers’ pain estimations may have important implications for pediatric pain management decisions. Affective responses elicited by facing the child in pain are considered key in understanding caregivers’ estimations of pediatric pain experiences. Theory suggests differential influences of sympathy versus personal distress on pain estimations; yet empirical evidence on the impact of caregivers’ feelings of sympathy versus distress upon estimations of pediatric pain experiences is lacking. The current study explored the role of caregiver distress versus sympathy in understanding caregivers’ pain estimates of the child’s pain experience. Using a prospective design in 31 children undergoing consecutive lumbar punctures and/or bone marrow aspirations at Ghent University Hospital, caregivers’ (i.e., parents, physicians, nurses, and child life specialists) distress and sympathy were assessed before each procedure; estimates of child pain were obtained immediately following each procedure. Results indicated that the child’s level of pain behavior in anticipation of the procedure had a strong influence on all caregivers’ pain estimations. Beyond the impact of child pain behavior, personal distress explained parental and physician’s estimates of child pain, but not pain estimates of nurses and child life specialists. Specifically, higher level of parental and physician’s distress was related to higher child pain estimates. Caregiver sympathy was not associated with pain estimations. The current findings highlight the important role of caregivers’ felt personal distress when faced with child pain, rather than sympathy, in influencing their pain estimates. Potential implications for pain management are discussed.

Impact of an equality constraint on the class-specific residual variances in regression mixtures: A Monte Carlo simulation study.

PubMed

Kim, Minjung; Lamont, Andrea E; Jaki, Thomas; Feaster, Daniel; Howe, George; Van Horn, M Lee

2016-06-01

Regression mixture models are a novel approach to modeling the heterogeneous effects of predictors on an outcome. In the model-building process, often residual variances are disregarded and simplifying assumptions are made without thorough examination of the consequences. In this simulation study, we investigated the impact of an equality constraint on the residual variances across latent classes. We examined the consequences of constraining the residual variances on class enumeration (finding the true number of latent classes) and on the parameter estimates, under a number of different simulation conditions meant to reflect the types of heterogeneity likely to exist in applied analyses. The results showed that bias in class enumeration increased as the difference in residual variances between the classes increased. Also, an inappropriate equality constraint on the residual variances greatly impacted on the estimated class sizes and showed the potential to greatly affect the parameter estimates in each class. These results suggest that it is important to make assumptions about residual variances with care and to carefully report what assumptions are made.

Cost implications for changing candidacy or access to service within a publicly funded healthcare system?

PubMed

O'Neill, Ciaran; Lamb, Brian; Archbold, Sue

2016-04-01

Undue attention in the allocation of healthcare resources can be given to expenditures as opposed to expenditures avoided. This can be particularly apparent when expenditures avoided fall across different budget holders and budgetary pressures are strained. The paper presents estimates of the potential savings attributable to the adoption of new hearing assistive technologies in Britain between 1992 and 2014 based on multivariate analyses of survey data. The reduction in service use among the hearing impaired between 1992 and 2014 is estimated to amount to between £53 and £92 million per annum. Issues in estimating the impact of widening candidature for cochlear implants on costs exist related to potential savings. This research begins to lay a firmer evidence base for such work as well as identifying some of the challenges.

Time Resolved Temperature Measurement of Hypervelocity Impact Generated Plasma Using a Global Optimization Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hew, Y. M.; Linscott, I.; Close, S.

2015-12-01

Meteoroids and orbital debris, collectively referred to as hypervelocity impactors, travel between 7 and 72 km/s in free space. Upon their impact onto the spacecraft, the energy conversion from kinetic to ionization/vaporization occurs within a very brief timescale and results in a small and dense expanding plasma with a very strong optical flash. The radio frequency (RF) emission produced by this plasma can potentially lead to electrical anomalies within the spacecraft. In addition, space weather, such as solar activity and background plasma, can establish spacecraft conditions which can exaggerate the damages done by these impacts. During the impact, a very strong impact flash will be generated. Through the studying of this emission spectrum of the impact, we hope to study the impact generated gas cloud/plasma properties. The impact flash emitted from a ground-based hypervelocity impact test is long expected by many scientists to contain the characteristics of the impact generated plasma, such as plasma temperature and density. This paper presents a method for the time-resolved plasma temperature estimation using three-color visible band photometry data with a global pattern search optimization method. The equilibrium temperature of the plasma can be estimated using an optical model which accounts for both the line emission and continuum emission from the plasma. Using a global pattern search based optimizer, the model can isolate the contribution of the continuum emission versus the line emission from the plasma. The plasma temperature can thus be estimated. Prior to the optimization step, a Gaussian process is also applied to extract the optical emission signal out of the noisy background. The resultant temperature and line-to-continuum emission weighting factor are consistent with the spectrum of the impactor material and current literature.

Energy Savings Calculations for Heat Island Reduction Strategies in Baton Rouge, Sacramento and Salt Lake City

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konopacki, S.; Akbari, H.

2000-03-01

In 1997, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the ''Heat Island Reduction Initiative'', to quantify the potential benefits of Heat Island Reduction (HIR) strategies (i.e., shade trees, reflective roofs, reflective pavements and urban vegetation) to reduce cooling energy use in buildings, lower the ambient air temperature and improve urban air quality in cities, and reduce CO2 emissions from power plants. Under this initiative, the Urban Heat Island Pilot Project (UHIPP) was created with the objective to investigate the potential of HIR strategies in residential and commercial buildings in three initial UHIPP cities: Baton Rouge, Sacramento and Salt Lake City.more » This paper summarizes our efforts to calculate the annual energy savings, peak power avoidance and annual C02 reduction of HIR strategies in the three initial cities. In this analysis, we focused on three building types that offer most savings potential: single-family residence, office and retail store. Each building type was characterized in detail by old or new construction and with a gas furnace or an electric heat pump. We defined prototypical building characteristics for each building type and simulated the impact of HIR strategies on building cooling and heating energy use and peak power demand using the DOE-2.IE model. Our simulations included the impact of (1) strategically-placed shade trees near buildings [direct effect], (2) use of high-albedo roofing material on building [direct effect], (3) combined strategies I and 2 [direct effect], (4) urban reforestation with high-albedo pavements and building surfaces [indirect effect] and (5) combined strategies 1, 2 and 4 [direct and indirect effects]. We then estimated the total roof area of air-conditioned buildings in each city using readily obtainable data to calculate the metropolitan-wide impact of HIR strategies. The results show, that in Baton Rouge, potential annual energy savings of $15M could be realized by rate-payers from the combined direct and indirect effects of HIR strategies. Additionally, peak power avoidance is estimated at 133 MW and the reduction in annual carbon emissions at 41 kt. In Sacramento, the potential annual energy savings is estimated at $26M, with an avoidance of 486 MW in peak power and a reduction in annual carbon of 92 kt. In Salt Lake City, the potential annual energy savings is estimated at $4M, with an avoidance of 85 MW in peak power and a reduction in annual carbon of 20 kt.« less

Introducing vaccination against serogroup B meningococcal disease: An economic and mathematical modelling study of potential impact

PubMed Central

Christensen, Hannah; Hickman, Matthew; Edmunds, W. John; Trotter, Caroline L.

2013-01-01

Background Meningococcal disease remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The first broadly effective vaccine against group B disease (which causes considerable meningococcal disease in Europe, the Americas and Australasia) was licensed in the EU in January 2013; our objective was to estimate the potential impact of introducing such a vaccine in England. Methods We developed two models to estimate the impact of introducing a new ‘MenB’ vaccine. The cohort model assumes the vaccine protects against disease only; the transmission dynamic model also allows the vaccine to protect against carriage (accounting for herd effects). We used these, and economic models, to estimate the case reduction and cost-effectiveness of a number of different vaccine strategies. Results We estimate 27% of meningococcal disease cases could be prevented over the lifetime of an English birth cohort by vaccinating infants at 2,3,4 and 12 months of age with a vaccine that prevents disease only; this strategy could be cost-effective at £9 per vaccine dose. Substantial reductions in disease (71%) can be produced after 10 years by routinely vaccinating infants in combination with a large-scale catch-up campaign, using a vaccine which protects against carriage as well as disease; this could be cost-effective at £17 per vaccine dose. Conclusions New ‘MenB’ vaccines could substantially reduce disease in England and be cost-effective if competitively priced, particularly if the vaccines can prevent carriage as well as disease. These results are relevant to other countries, with a similar epidemiology to England, considering the introduction of a new ‘MenB’ vaccine. PMID:23566946

Comparing the Ecological Impacts of Wind and Oil & Gas Development: A Landscape Scale Assessment

PubMed Central

Jones, Nathan F.; Pejchar, Liba

2013-01-01

Energy production in the United States is in transition as the demand for clean and domestic power increases. Wind energy offers the benefit of reduced emissions, yet, like oil and natural gas, it also contributes to energy sprawl. We used a diverse set of indicators to quantify the ecological impacts of oil, natural gas, and wind energy development in Colorado and Wyoming. Aerial imagery was supplemented with empirical data to estimate habitat loss, fragmentation, potential for wildlife mortality, susceptibility to invasion, biomass carbon lost, and water resources. To quantify these impacts we digitized the land-use footprint within 375 plots, stratified by energy type. We quantified the change in impacts per unit area and per unit energy produced, compared wind energy to oil and gas, and compared landscapes with and without energy development. We found substantial differences in impacts between energy types for most indicators, although the magnitude and direction of the differences varied. Oil and gas generally resulted in greater impacts per unit area but fewer impacts per unit energy compared with wind. Biologically important and policy-relevant outcomes of this study include: 1) regardless of energy type, underlying land-use matters and development in already disturbed areas resulted in fewer total impacts; 2) the number and source of potential mortality varied between energy types, however, the lack of robust mortality data limits our ability to use this information to estimate and mitigate impacts; and 3) per unit energy produced, oil and gas extraction was less impactful on an annual basis but is likely to have a much larger cumulative footprint than wind energy over time. This rapid evaluation of landscape-scale energy development impacts could be replicated in other regions, and our specific findings can help meet the challenge of balancing land conservation with society’s demand for energy. PMID:24312296

Yucca Mountain: How Do Global and Federal Initiatives Impact Clark County's Nuclear Waste Program?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Navis, I.; McGehee, B.

2008-07-01

Since 1987, Clark County has been designated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as an 'Affected Unit of Local Government' (AULG). The AULG designation is an acknowledgement by the federal government that activities associated with the Yucca Mountain proposal could result in considerable impacts on Clark County residents and the community as a whole. As an AULG, Clark County is authorized to identify 'any potential economic, social, public health and safety, and environmental impacts of a repository', 42 U.S.C. Section 10135(c)(1)(B)(i) under provisions of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act Amendments (NWPAA). Clark County's oversight program contains key elements ofmore » (1) technical and scientific analysis (2) transportation analysis (3) impact assessment and monitoring (4) policy and legislative analysis and monitoring, and (5) public outreach. Clark County has conducted numerous studies of potential impacts, many of which are summarized in Clark County's Impact Assessment Report that was submitted DOE and the President of the United States in February 2002. Given the unprecedented magnitude and duration of DOE's proposal, as well as the many unanswered questions about the transportation routes, number of shipments, and the modal mix that will ultimately be used, impacts to public health and safety and security, as well as socioeconomic impacts, can only be estimated. In order to refine these estimates, Clark County Comprehensive Planning Department's Nuclear Waste Division updates, assesses, and monitors impacts on a regular basis. Clark County's Impact Assessment program covers not only unincorporated Clark County but all five jurisdictions of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson, Mesquite, and Boulder City as well as tribal jurisdictions that fall within Clark County's geographic boundary. National and global focus on nuclear power and nuclear waste could have significant impact on the Yucca Mountain Program, and therefore, Clark County's oversight of that program. (authors)« less

Comparing the ecological impacts of wind and oil & gas development: a landscape scale assessment.

PubMed

Jones, Nathan F; Pejchar, Liba

2013-01-01

Energy production in the United States is in transition as the demand for clean and domestic power increases. Wind energy offers the benefit of reduced emissions, yet, like oil and natural gas, it also contributes to energy sprawl. We used a diverse set of indicators to quantify the ecological impacts of oil, natural gas, and wind energy development in Colorado and Wyoming. Aerial imagery was supplemented with empirical data to estimate habitat loss, fragmentation, potential for wildlife mortality, susceptibility to invasion, biomass carbon lost, and water resources. To quantify these impacts we digitized the land-use footprint within 375 plots, stratified by energy type. We quantified the change in impacts per unit area and per unit energy produced, compared wind energy to oil and gas, and compared landscapes with and without energy development. We found substantial differences in impacts between energy types for most indicators, although the magnitude and direction of the differences varied. Oil and gas generally resulted in greater impacts per unit area but fewer impacts per unit energy compared with wind. Biologically important and policy-relevant outcomes of this study include: 1) regardless of energy type, underlying land-use matters and development in already disturbed areas resulted in fewer total impacts; 2) the number and source of potential mortality varied between energy types, however, the lack of robust mortality data limits our ability to use this information to estimate and mitigate impacts; and 3) per unit energy produced, oil and gas extraction was less impactful on an annual basis but is likely to have a much larger cumulative footprint than wind energy over time. This rapid evaluation of landscape-scale energy development impacts could be replicated in other regions, and our specific findings can help meet the challenge of balancing land conservation with society's demand for energy.

Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

PubMed

Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

2016-02-01

Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Folga, Steve; Portante, Edgar; Shamsuddin, Shabbir

2016-10-01

This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured acrossmore » all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.« less

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Incidence and Prevalence of Opportunistic and Other Infections and the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-infected Children in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

B-Lajoie, Marie-Renée; Drouin, Olivier; Bartlett, Gillian; Nguyen, Quynh; Low, Andrea; Gavriilidis, Georgios; Easterbrook, Philippa; Muhe, Lulu

2016-06-15

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the incidence and prevalence of 14 opportunistic infections (OIs) and other infections as well as the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children (aged <18 years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), to understand regional burden of disease, and inform delivery of HIV services. Eligible studies described the incidence of OIs and other infections in ART-naive and -exposed children from January 1990 to November 2013, using Medline, Global Health, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Knowledge, and Literatura Latino Americana em Ciências da Saúde databases. Summary incident risk (IR) and prevalent risk for each OI in ART-naive and ART-exposed children were calculated, and unadjusted odds ratios calculated for impact of ART. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted were estimated using the AIDS impact model. We identified 4542 citations, and 88 studies were included, comprising 55 679 HIV-infected children. Bacterial pneumonia and tuberculosis were the most common incident and prevalent infections in both ART-naive and ART-exposed children. There was a significant reduction in IR with ART for the majority of OIs. There was a smaller impact on bacterial sepsis and pneumonia, and an increase observed for varicella zoster. ART initiation based on 2010 World Health Organization guidelines criteria for ART initiation in children was estimated to potentially avert >161 000 OIs (2013 UNAIDS data) with estimated cost savings of at least US$17 million per year. There is a decrease in the risk of most OIs with ART use in HIV-infected children in LMICs, and estimated large potential cost savings in OIs averted with ART use, although there are greater uncertainties in pediatric data compared with that of adults. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

2017-07-01

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

Examples of Communicating Uncertainty Applied to Earthquake Hazard and Risk Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.

2013-12-01

When is communicating scientific modeling uncertainty effective? One viewpoint is that the answer depends on whether one is communicating hazard or risk: hazards have quantifiable uncertainties (which, granted, are often ignored), yet risk uncertainties compound uncertainties inherent in the hazard with those of the risk calculations, and are thus often larger. Larger, yet more meaningful: since risk entails societal impact of some form, consumers of such information tend to have a better grasp of the potential uncertainty ranges for loss information than they do for less-tangible hazard values (like magnitude, peak acceleration, or stream flow). I present two examples that compare and contrast communicating uncertainty for earthquake hazard and risk products. The first example is the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) ShakeMap system, which portrays the uncertain, best estimate of the distribution and intensity of shaking over the potentially impacted region. The shaking intensity is well constrained at seismograph locations yet is uncertain elsewhere, so shaking uncertainties are quantified and presented spatially. However, with ShakeMap, it seems that users tend to believe what they see is accurate in part because (1) considering the shaking uncertainty complicates the picture, and (2) it would not necessarily alter their decision-making. In contrast, when it comes to making earthquake-response decisions based on uncertain loss estimates, actions tend to be made only after analysis of the confidence in (or source of) such estimates. Uncertain ranges of loss estimates instill tangible images for users, and when such uncertainties become large, intuitive reality-check alarms go off, for example, when the range of losses presented become too wide to be useful. The USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which in near-real time alerts users to the likelihood of ranges of potential fatalities and economic impact, is aimed at facilitating rapid and proportionate earthquake response. For uncertainty representation, PAGER employs an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) that provides simple alerting thresholds, derived from systematic analyses of past earthquake impact and response levels. The alert levels are characterized by alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (major disaster, necessitating international response). We made a conscious attempt at both simple and intuitive color-coded alerting criterion; yet, we preserve the necessary uncertainty measures (with simple histograms) by which one can gauge the likelihood for the alert to be over- or underestimated. In these hazard and loss modeling examples, both products are widely used across a range of technical as well as general audiences. Ironically, ShakeMap uncertainties--rigorously reported and portrayed for the primarily scientific portion of the audience--are rarely employed and are routinely misunderstood; for PAGER, uncertainties aimed at a wider user audience seem to be more easily digested. We discuss how differences in the way these uncertainties are portrayed may play into their acceptance and uptake, or lack thereof.

Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries.

PubMed

Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Yorobe, Jose; Husin, Bahagiawati Amir; Manalo, Abraham; Lokollo, Erna; Ramon, Godfrey; Zambrano, Patricia; Sutrisno

2012-01-01

Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US $100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

Evaluation of trapping-web designs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lukacs, P.M.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.

2005-01-01

The trapping web is a method for estimating the density and abundance of animal populations. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to explore performance of the trapping web for estimating animal density under a variety of web designs and animal behaviours. The trapping performs well when animals have home ranges, even if the home ranges are large relative to trap spacing. Webs should contain at least 90 traps. Trapping should continue for 5-7 occasions. Movement rates have little impact on density estimates when animals are confined to home ranges. Estimation is poor when animals do not have home ranges and movement rates are rapid. The trapping web is useful for estimating the density of animals that are hard to detect and occur at potentially low densities. ?? CSIRO 2005.

Crop response to climate: ecophysical models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecophysiological models were the dominant tools used to estimate the potential impact of climate change in agroecosystems in the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the IPCC and are widely used elsewhere in climate change research. These models, also known as “crop models” or “simulation models”,...

Linking Teacher Quality, Student Attendance, and Student Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gershenson, Seth

2016-01-01

Research on the effectiveness of educational inputs, particularly research on teacher effectiveness, typically overlooks teachers' potential impact on behavioral outcomes, such as student attendance. Using longitudinal data on teachers and students in North Carolina I estimate teacher effects on primary school student absences in a value-added…

Water Consumption Estimates of the Biodiesel Process in the US

EPA Science Inventory

As a renewable alternative to petroleum diesel, biodiesel has been widely used in the US and around the world. Along with the rapid development of the biodiesel industry, its potential impact on water resources should also be evaluated. This study investigates water consumption f...

Investment in Social Marketing Campaign to Reduce Stigma and Discrimination Associated with Mental Illness Yields Positive Economic Benefits to California.

PubMed

Ashwood, J Scott; Briscombe, Brian; Collins, Rebecca L; Wong, Eunice C; Eberhart, Nicole K; Cerully, Jennifer; May, Libby; Roth, Beth; Burnam, M Audrey

2017-01-01

This article examines the potential impact of the California Mental Health Services Authority's stigma and discrimination reduction social marketing campaign on the use of adult behavioral health services, and it estimates the benefit-cost ratios.

The global financial crisis and Australian general practice.

PubMed

McRae, Ian S; Paolucci, Francesco

2011-02-01

To explore the potential effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the market for general practitioner (GP) services in Australia. We estimate the impact of changes in unemployment rates on demand for GP services and the impact of lost asset values on GP retirement plans and work patterns. Combining these supply and demand effects, we estimate the potential effect of the GFC on the market for GP services under various scenarios. If deferral of retirement increases GP availability by 2%, and historic trends to reduce GP working hours are halved, at the current level of ~5.2% unemployment average fees would decline by $0.23 per GP consultation and volumes of GP services would rise by 2.53% with almost no change in average GP gross earnings over what would otherwise have occurred. With 8.5% unemployment, as initially predicted by Treasury, GP fees would increase by $0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%. The GFC is likely to increase activity in the GP market and potentially to reduce fee levels relative to the pre-GFC trends. Net effects on average GP incomes are likely to be small at current unemployment levels.

Scaling Up Family Planning to Reduce Maternal and Child Mortality: The Potential Costs and Benefits of Modern Contraceptive Use in South Africa.

PubMed

Chola, Lumbwe; McGee, Shelley; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Buchmann, Eckhart; Hofman, Karen

2015-01-01

Family planning contributes significantly to the prevention of maternal and child mortality. However, many women still do not use modern contraception and the numbers of unintended pregnancies, abortions and subsequent deaths are high. In this paper, we estimate the service delivery costs of scaling up modern contraception, and the potential impact on maternal, newborn and child survival in South Africa. The Family Planning model in Spectrum was used to project the impact of modern contraception on pregnancies, abortions and births in South Africa (2015-2030). The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was increased annually by 0.68 percentage points. The Lives Saved Tool was used to estimate maternal and child deaths, with coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions increasing by 5% annually. A scenario analysis was done to test impacts when: the change in CPR was 0.1% annually; and intervention coverage increased linearly to 99% in 2030. If CPR increased by 0.68% annually, the number of pregnancies would reduce from 1.3 million in 2014 to one million in 2030. Unintended pregnancies, abortions and births decrease by approximately 20%. Family planning can avert approximately 7,000 newborn and child and 600 maternal deaths. The total annual costs of providing modern contraception in 2030 are estimated to be US$33 million and the cost per user of modern contraception is US$7 per year. The incremental cost per life year gained is US$40 for children and US$1,000 for mothers. Maternal and child mortality remain high in South Africa, and scaling up family planning together with optimal maternal, newborn and child care is crucial. A huge impact can be made on maternal and child mortality, with a minimal investment per user of modern contraception.

Earth Impact Effects Program: Estimating the Regional Environmental Consequences of Impacts On Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, G. S.; Melosh, H. J.; Marcus, R. A.

2009-12-01

The Earth Impact Effects Program (www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects) is a popular web-based calculator for estimating the regional environmental consequences of a comet or asteroid impact on Earth. It is widely used, both by inquisitive members of the public as an educational device and by scientists as a simple research tool. It applies a variety of scaling laws, based on theory, nuclear explosion test data, observations from terrestrial and extraterrestrial craters and the results of small-scale impact experiments and numerical modelling, to quantify the principal hazards that might affect the people, buildings and landscape in the vicinity of an impact. The program requires six inputs: impactor diameter, impactor density, impact velocity prior to atmospheric entry, impact angle, and the target type (sedimentary rock, crystalline rock, or a water layer above rock), as well as the distance from the impact at which the environmental effects are to be calculated. The program includes simple algorithms for estimating the fate of the impactor during atmospheric traverse, the thermal radiation emitted by the impact plume (fireball) and the intensity of seismic shaking. The program also approximates various dimensions of the impact crater and ejecta deposit, as well as estimating the severity of the air blast in both crater-forming and airburst impacts. We illustrate the strengths and limitations of the program by comparing its predictions (where possible) against known impacts, such as Carancas, Peru (2007); Tunguska, Siberia (1908); Barringer (Meteor) crater, Arizona (ca 49 ka). These tests demonstrate that, while adequate for large impactors, the simple approximation of atmospheric entry in the original program does not properly account for the disruption and dispersal of small impactors as they traverse Earth's atmosphere. We describe recent improvements to the calculator to better describe atmospheric entry of small meteors; the consequences of oceanic impacts; and the recurrance interval between impacts of a given size. In addition, we assess the potential regional hazard of hypothetical impact scenarios of different scales. Our simple calculator suggests that the most wide-reaching regional hazard is seismic shaking: both ejecta-deposit thickness and airblast pressure decay much more rapidly with distance than seismic ground motion. Close to the impact site the most severe hazard is from thermal radiation; however, the curvature of the Earth implies that distant localities are shielded from direct thermal radiation because the fireball is below the horizon.

Impact risk assessment and planetary defense mission planning for asteroid 2015 PDC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vardaxis, George; Sherman, Peter; Wie, Bong

2016-05-01

In this paper, an integrated utilization of analytic keyhole theory, B-plane mapping, and planetary encounter geometry, augmented by direct numerical simulation, is shown to be useful in determining the impact risk of an asteroid with the Earth on a given encounter, as well on potential future encounters via keyhole passages. The accurate estimation of the impact probability of hazardous asteroids is extremely important for planetary defense mission planning. Asteroids in Earth resonant orbits are particularly troublesome because of the continuous threat they pose in the future. Based on the trajectories of the asteroid and the Earth, feasible mission trajectories can be found to mitigate the impact threat of hazardous asteroids. In order to try to ensure mission success, trajectories are judged based on initial and final mission design parameters that would make the mission easier to complete. Given the potential of a short-warning time scenario, a disruption mission considered in this paper occurs approximately one year prior to the anticipated impact date. Expanding upon the established theory, a computational method is developed to estimate the impact probability of the hazardous asteroid, in order to assess the likelihood of an event, and then investigate the fragmentation of the asteroid due to a disruption mission and analyze its effects on the current and future encounters of the fragments with Earth. A fictional asteroid, designated as 2015 PDC - created as an example asteroid risk exercise for the 2015 Planetary Defence Conference, is used as a reference target asteroid to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of computational tools being developed for impact risk assessment and planetary defense mission planning for a hazardous asteroid or comet.

Health impact assessment of a skin sensitizer: Analysis of potential policy measures aimed at reducing geraniol concentrations in personal care products and household cleaning products.

PubMed

Jongeneel, W P; Delmaar, J E; Bokkers, B G H

2018-06-08

A methodology to assess the health impact of skin sensitizers is introduced, which consists of the comparison of the probabilistic aggregated exposure with a probabilistic (individual) human sensitization or elicitation induction dose. The health impact of potential policy measures aimed at reducing the concentration of a fragrance allergen, geraniol, in consumer products is analysed in a simulated population derived from multiple product use surveys. Our analysis shows that current dermal exposure to geraniol from personal care and household cleaning products lead to new cases of contact allergy and induce clinical symptoms for those already sensitized. We estimate that this exposure results yearly in 34 new cases of geraniol contact allergy per million consumers in Western and Northern Europe, mainly due to exposure to household cleaning products. About twice as many consumers (60 per million) are projected to suffer from clinical symptoms due to re-exposure to geraniol. Policy measures restricting geraniol concentrations to <0.01% will noticeably reduce new cases of sensitization and decrease the number of people with clinical symptoms as well as the frequency of occurrence of these clinical symptoms. The estimated numbers should be interpreted with caution and provide only a rough indication of the health impact. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Health Impact of an English Sugary Drinks Duty at National and Local Levels.

PubMed

Collins, Brendan; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin; Timpson, Hannah; Razzaq, Abdul; Cheater, Sylvia; Ireland, Robin; Bromley, Helen

2015-01-01

Increasing evidence associates excess refined sugar intakes with obesity, Type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Worryingly, the estimated volume of sugary drinks purchased in the UK has more than doubled between 1975 and 2007, from 510 ml to 1140 ml per person per week. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of a duty on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) at a local level in England, hypothesising that a duty could reduce obesity and related diseases. We modelled the potential impact of a 20% sugary drinks duty on local authorities in England between 2010 and 2030. We synthesised data obtained from the British National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS), drinks manufacturers, Office for National Statistics, and from previous studies. This produced a modelled population of 41 million adults in 326 lower tier local authorities in England. This analysis suggests that a 20% SSB duty could result in approximately 2,400 fewer diabetes cases, 1,700 fewer stroke and coronary heart disease cases, 400 fewer cancer cases, and gain some 41,000 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per year across England. The duty might have the biggest impact in urban areas with young populations. This study adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting health benefits for a duty on sugary drinks. It might also usefully provide results at an area level to inform local price interventions in England.

Comparing estimates of climate change impacts from process-based and statistical crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobell, David B.; Asseng, Senthold

2017-01-01

The potential impacts of climate change on crop productivity are of widespread interest to those concerned with addressing climate change and improving global food security. Two common approaches to assess these impacts are process-based simulation models, which attempt to represent key dynamic processes affecting crop yields, and statistical models, which estimate functional relationships between historical observations of weather and yields. Examples of both approaches are increasingly found in the scientific literature, although often published in different disciplinary journals. Here we compare published sensitivities to changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide (CO2), and ozone from each approach for the subset of crops, locations, and climate scenarios for which both have been applied. Despite a common perception that statistical models are more pessimistic, we find no systematic differences between the predicted sensitivities to warming from process-based and statistical models up to +2 °C, with limited evidence at higher levels of warming. For precipitation, there are many reasons why estimates could be expected to differ, but few estimates exist to develop robust comparisons, and precipitation changes are rarely the dominant factor for predicting impacts given the prominent role of temperature, CO2, and ozone changes. A common difference between process-based and statistical studies is that the former tend to include the effects of CO2 increases that accompany warming, whereas statistical models typically do not. Major needs moving forward include incorporating CO2 effects into statistical studies, improving both approaches’ treatment of ozone, and increasing the use of both methods within the same study. At the same time, those who fund or use crop model projections should understand that in the short-term, both approaches when done well are likely to provide similar estimates of warming impacts, with statistical models generally requiring fewer resources to produce robust estimates, especially when applied to crops beyond the major grains.

Estimate of Cost-Effective Potential for Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards in 13 Major World Economies Energy Savings, Environmental and Financial Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letschert, Virginie E.; Bojda, Nicholas; Ke, Jing

2012-07-01

This study analyzes the financial impacts on consumers of minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) for appliances that could be implemented in 13 major economies around the world. We use the Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), to analyze various appliance efficiency target levels to estimate the net present value (NPV) of policies designed to provide maximum energy savings while not penalizing consumers financially. These policies constitute what we call the “cost-effective potential” (CEP) scenario. The CEP scenario is designed to answer the question: How high can we raise the efficiency bar in mandatory programsmore » while still saving consumers money?« less

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

2018-01-01

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Price impact on urban residential water demand: A dynamic panel data approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ArbuéS, Fernando; BarberáN, Ramón; Villanúa, Inmaculada

2004-11-01

In this paper, we formulate and estimate a model of residential water demand with the aim of evaluating the potential of pricing policies as a mechanism for managing residential water. The proposed econometric model offers a new perspective on urban water demand analysis by combining microlevel data with a dynamic panel data estimation procedure. The empirical application suggests that residential users are more responsive to a lagged average price specification. Another result of the estimated model is that price is a moderately effective tool in reducing residential water demand within the present range of prices, with the estimated values for income elasticity and "elasticity of consumption with respect to family size" reinforcing this conclusion.

FEMA Asteroid Impact Tabletop Exercise Simulations

DOE PAGES

Boslough, Mark; Jennings, Barbara; Carvey, Brad; ...

2015-05-19

We describe the computational simulations and damage assessments that we provided in support of a tabletop exercise (TTX) at the request of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Program Office. The overall purpose of the exercise was to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and emergency management responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact with Earth. The scripted exercise consisted of discovery, tracking, and characterization of a hypothetical asteroid; inclusive of mission planning, mitigation, response, impact to population, infrastructure and GDP, and explicit quantification of uncertainty. Participants at the meeting included representatives of NASA, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergencymore » Management Agency (FEMA), and the White House. The exercise took place at FEMA headquarters. Sandia's role was to assist the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in developing the impact scenario, to predict the physical effects of the impact, and to forecast the infrastructure and economic losses. We ran simulations using Sandia's CTH hydrocode to estimate physical effects on the ground, and to produce contour maps indicating damage assessments that could be used as input for the infrastructure and economic models. We used the FASTMap tool to provide estimates of infrastructure damage over the affected area, and the REAcct tool to estimate the potential economic severity expressed as changes to GDP (by nation, region, or sector) due to damage and short-term business interruptions.« less

FEMA Asteroid Impact Tabletop Exercise Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark; Jennings, Barbara; Carvey, Brad

We describe the computational simulations and damage assessments that we provided in support of a tabletop exercise (TTX) at the request of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Program Office. The overall purpose of the exercise was to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and emergency management responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact with Earth. The scripted exercise consisted of discovery, tracking, and characterization of a hypothetical asteroid; inclusive of mission planning, mitigation, response, impact to population, infrastructure and GDP, and explicit quantification of uncertainty. Participants at the meeting included representatives of NASA, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergencymore » Management Agency (FEMA), and the White House. The exercise took place at FEMA headquarters. Sandia's role was to assist the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in developing the impact scenario, to predict the physical effects of the impact, and to forecast the infrastructure and economic losses. We ran simulations using Sandia's CTH hydrocode to estimate physical effects on the ground, and to produce contour maps indicating damage assessments that could be used as input for the infrastructure and economic models. We used the FASTMap tool to provide estimates of infrastructure damage over the affected area, and the REAcct tool to estimate the potential economic severity expressed as changes to GDP (by nation, region, or sector) due to damage and short-term business interruptions.« less

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2003-01-01

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Assessing the Potential Environmental Consequences of a New Energetic Material: A Phased Approach, September 2005

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

there are no reliable alternatives to animal testing in the determination of toxicity. QSARs are only as reliable as the corroborating toxicological ...2) QSAR approaches can also be used to estimate toxicological impact. Toxicity QSAR models can often predict many toxicity parameters without... Toxicology Study No. 87-XE-03N3-05, Assessing the Potential Environmental Consequences of a New Energetic Material: A Phased Approach, September 2005 1

Proportion of patients needing an implantable cardioverter defibrillator on the basis of current guidelines: impact on healthcare resources in Italy and the USA. Data from the ALPHA study registry.

PubMed

Pedretti, Roberto F E; Curnis, Antonio; Massa, Riccardo; Morandi, Fabrizio; Tritto, Massimo; Manca, Lorenzo; Occhetta, Eraldo; Molon, Giulio; De Ferrari, Gaetano M; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Raciti, Giovanni; Klersy, Catherine; Salerno-Uriarte, Jorge A

2010-08-01

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) improve survival in selected patients with left ventricular dysfunction or heart failure (HF). The objective is to estimate the number of ICD candidates and to assess the potential impact on public health expenditure in Italy and the USA. Data from 3513 consecutive patients (ALPHA study registry) were screened. A model based on international guidelines inclusion criteria and epidemiological data was used to estimate the number of eligible patients. A comparison with current ICD implant rate was done to estimate the necessary incremental rate to treat eligible patients within 5 years. Up to 54% of HF patients are estimated to be eligible for ICD implantation. An implantation policy based on guidelines would significantly increase the ICD number to 2671 implants per million inhabitants in Italy and to 4261 in the USA. An annual increment of prophylactic ICD implants of 20% in the USA and 68% in Italy would be necessary to treat all indicated patients in a 5-year timeframe. Implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation policy based on current evidence may have significant impact on public health expenditure. Effective risk stratification may be useful in order to maximize benefit of ICD therapy and its cost-effectiveness in primary prevention.

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

Impacts of Potential Aircraft Observations on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

anticyclone. Vertical wind shear was low, while a moderate level of upper level diffluence existed. The minimum sea level pressure ( SLP ) was estimated...pre-Sinlaku disturbance. At this time, JTWC estimated maximum surface level winds to be 15 to 20 kt, with a SLP near 1005 hPa. 17 Figure 11...poleward side of the circulation. Surface winds had increased to near 23 kt as the SLP continued to fall to 1004 hPa. JTWC forecasters upgraded the

The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros

2015-11-01

The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.

Reassessment of the potential economic impact of cattle parasites in Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The profitability of livestock producers can be diminished significantly by the effects of parasites that affect cattle. Economic losses caused by parasites of cattle in Brazil were estimated on an annual basis considering the total number of animals at risk and the expected detrimental effects of p...

Investment in Social Marketing Campaign to Reduce Stigma and Discrimination Associated with Mental Illness Yields Positive Economic Benefits to California

PubMed Central

Ashwood, J. Scott; Briscombe, Brian; Collins, Rebecca L.; Wong, Eunice C.; Eberhart, Nicole K.; Cerully, Jennifer; May, Libby; Roth, Beth; Burnam, M. Audrey

2017-01-01

Abstract This article examines the potential impact of the California Mental Health Services Authority's stigma and discrimination reduction social marketing campaign on the use of adult behavioral health services, and it estimates the benefit-cost ratios. PMID:28845343

Predicting the rate of change in timber value for forest stands infested with gypsy moth

Treesearch

David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick

1982-01-01

Presents a method for estimating the potential impact of gypsy moth attacks on forest-stand value. Robust regression analysis is used to develop an equation for predicting the rate of change in timber value from easy-to-measure key characteristics of stand condition.

SMARTe: An Online Resource For Improving Revitalization Decisions For Potentially Contaminated Sites

EPA Science Inventory

Brownfields and Superfund sites contaminated from hazardous waste often occupy prime real estate. EPA estimates that about 450,000 abandoned and polluted waste sites nationwide have been affected by oil or chemicals or impacted by use by various industries. It is important to e...

Classification of Wind Farm Turbulence and Its Effects on General Aviation Aircraft and Airports : Technical Summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

The focus of this project was to estimate the potential impact of a new motor vehicle government mandate for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology on the demand for aftermarket devices, applications, and infrastructure that leverages the same dedicated...

2011 Strategic Plan for Autism Spectrum Disorder Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Interagency Autism Coordinating Committee, 2011

2011-01-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) affects an estimated 1% of children in the United States and yet many fundamental questions about the biology of ASD, potential risk factors, effective treatments and interventions, and impacts throughout life remain unanswered. Important advances have been made in understanding the complexity of ASD, but additional…

Applying WEPP technologies to western alkaline surface coal mines

Treesearch

J. Q. Wu; S. Dun; H. Rhee; X. Liu; W. J. Elliot; T. Golnar; J. R. Frankenberger; D. C. Flanagan; P. W. Conrad; R. L. McNearny

2011-01-01

One aspect of planning surface mining operations, regulated by the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES), is estimating potential environmental impacts during mining operations and the reclamation period that follows. Practical computer simulation tools are effective for evaluating site-specific sediment control and reclamation plans for the NPDES....

Improving Attachments of Non-Invasive (Type III) Electronic Data Loggers to Cetaceans

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

the assessment tag impact on animal health and well-being. Specifically, we are working to develop methods that will enable the accurate estimates...currently not available for any marine mammal, about animal health and activity has the potential to revolutionize how animals are cared for in these

GREEN CRAB (CARCINUS MAENAS LINNAEUS) CONSUMPTION RATES ON AND PREY PREFERENCES AMONG FOUR BIVALVE PREY SPECIES

EPA Science Inventory

The European green crab, Carcinus maenas, is a recent invader to Pacific Northwest (PNW) estuaries with a voracious appetite, especially for bivalves. To assess their potential impact, we estimated green crab consumption rates on four PNW bivalve species, Yaquina oyster (Ostrea ...

REAL-TIME ENERGY INFORMATION AND CONSUMER BEHAVIOR: A META-ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

EPA Science Inventory

The meta-analysis of literature and program results will shed light on potential causes of study-to-study variation in information feedback programs and trials. Outputs from the meta-analysis, such as price elasticity, will be used in NEMS to estimate the impact of a nation...

Estimate of the potential impact of folic acid fortification of corn masa flour on the prevention of neural tube defects.

PubMed

Tinker, Sarah C; Devine, Owen; Mai, Cara; Hamner, Heather C; Reefhuis, Jennita; Gilboa, Suzanne M; Dowling, Nicole F; Honein, Margaret A

2013-10-01

Hispanics in the US have a higher prevalence of neural tube defect (NTD) -affected pregnancies than non-Hispanic whites, and lower median total folic acid (FA) intake. FA fortification of corn masa flour (CMF) is a policy-level intervention for NTD prevention; however, the impact on NTD prevalence has not been estimated. We developed a model to estimate the percentage reduction in prevalence of spina bifida and anencephaly (NTDs) that could occur with FA fortification of CMF. Model inputs included estimates of the percentage reduction in United States NTD prevalence attributed to FA fortification of enriched cereal grain products (1995-1996 vs. 1998-2002), the increase in median FA intake after enriched cereal grain product fortification, and the estimated increase in median FA intake that could occur with CMF fortification at the same level as enriched cereal grain products (140 μg/100 g). We used Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainty. We stratified analyses by racial/ethnic group and rounded results to the nearest 10. We estimated CMF fortification could prevent 30 Hispanic infants from having spina bifida (95% uncertainty interval: 0, 80) and 10 infants from having anencephaly (95% uncertainty interval: 0, 40) annually. The estimated impact among non-Hispanic whites and blacks was smaller. CMF fortification with FA could prevent from 0 to 120 infants, with the most likely value of approximately 40, from having spina bifida or anencephaly among Hispanics, the population most likely to benefit from the proposed intervention. While this estimated reduction is unlikely to be discernible using current birth defect surveillance methods, it still suggests an important benefit to the target population. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Utility Estimation for Pediatric Vesicoureteral Reflux: Methodological Considerations Using an Online Survey Platform.

PubMed

Tejwani, Rohit; Wang, Hsin-Hsiao S; Lloyd, Jessica C; Kokorowski, Paul J; Nelson, Caleb P; Routh, Jonathan C

2017-03-01

The advent of online task distribution has opened a new avenue for efficiently gathering community perspectives needed for utility estimation. Methodological consensus for estimating pediatric utilities is lacking, with disagreement over whom to sample, what perspective to use (patient vs parent) and whether instrument induced anchoring bias is significant. We evaluated what methodological factors potentially impact utility estimates for vesicoureteral reflux. Cross-sectional surveys using a time trade-off instrument were conducted via the Amazon Mechanical Turk® (https://www.mturk.com) online interface. Respondents were randomized to answer questions from child, parent or dyad perspectives on the utility of a vesicoureteral reflux health state and 1 of 3 "warm-up" scenarios (paralysis, common cold, none) before a vesicoureteral reflux scenario. Utility estimates and potential predictors were fitted to a generalized linear model to determine what factors most impacted utilities. A total of 1,627 responses were obtained. Mean respondent age was 34.9 years. Of the respondents 48% were female, 38% were married and 44% had children. Utility values were uninfluenced by child/personal vesicoureteral reflux/urinary tract infection history, income or race. Utilities were affected by perspective and were higher in the child group (34% lower in parent vs child, p <0.001, and 13% lower in dyad vs child, p <0.001). Vesicoureteral reflux utility was not significantly affected by the presence or type of time trade-off warm-up scenario (p = 0.17). Time trade-off perspective affects utilities when estimated via an online interface. However, utilities are unaffected by the presence, type or absence of warm-up scenarios. These findings could have significant methodological implications for future utility elicitations regarding other pediatric conditions. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Techniques and methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys in Great Lakes tributaries, 1995 to 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Christie, Gavin C.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Fodale, Michael F.; Heinrich, John W.; Quinlan, Henry R.; Weise, Jerry G.; Weisser, John W.; Young, Robert J.

2003-01-01

Before 1995, Great Lakes streams were selected for lampricide treatment based primarily on qualitative measures of the relative abundance of larval sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus. New integrated pest management approaches required standardized quantitative measures of sea lamprey. This paper evaluates historical larval assessment techniques and data and describes how new standardized methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys were developed and implemented. These new methods have been used to estimate larval and metamorphosed sea lamprey abundance in about 100 Great Lakes streams annually and to rank them for lampricide treatment since 1995. Implementation of these methods has provided a quantitative means of selecting streams for treatment based on treatment cost and estimated production of metamorphosed sea lampreys, provided managers with a tool to estimate potential recruitment of sea lampreys to the Great Lakes and the ability to measure the potential consequences of not treating streams, resulting in a more justifiable allocation of resources. The empirical data produced can also be used to simulate the impacts of various control scenarios.

Sequence editing by Apolipoprotein B RNA-editing catalytic component-B and epidemiological surveillance of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance

PubMed Central

Gifford, Robert J.; Rhee, Soo-Yon; Eriksson, Nicolas; Liu, Tommy F.; Kiuchi, Mark; Das, Amar K.; Shafer, Robert W.

2008-01-01

Design Promiscuous guanine (G) to adenine (A) substitutions catalysed by apolipoprotein B RNA-editing catalytic component (APOBEC) enzymes are observed in a proportion of HIV-1 sequences in vivo and can introduce artifacts into some genetic analyses. The potential impact of undetected lethal editing on genotypic estimation of transmitted drug resistance was assessed. Methods Classifiers of lethal, APOBEC-mediated editing were developed by analysis of lentiviral pol gene sequence variation and evaluated using control sets of HIV-1 sequences. The potential impact of sequence editing on genotypic estimation of drug resistance was assessed in sets of sequences obtained from 77 studies of 25 or more therapy-naive individuals, using mixture modelling approaches to determine the maximum likelihood classification of sequences as lethally edited as opposed to viable. Results Analysis of 6437 protease and reverse transcriptase sequences from therapy-naive individuals using a novel classifier of lethal, APOBEC3G-mediated sequence editing, the polypeptide-like 3G (APOBEC3G)-mediated defectives (A3GD) index’, detected lethal editing in association with spurious ‘transmitted drug resistance’ in nearly 3% of proviral sequences obtained from whole blood and 0.2% of samples obtained from plasma. Conclusion Screening for lethally edited sequences in datasets containing a proportion of proviral DNA, such as those likely to be obtained for epidemiological surveillance of transmitted drug resistance in the developing world, can eliminate rare but potentially significant errors in genotypic estimation of transmitted drug resistance. PMID:18356601

H2@Scale Resource and Market Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, Mark

This presentation overviews progress to date on the H2@Scale resource and market analysis work. The work finds, for example, that hydrogen demand of 60 MMT/yr is possible when transportation and industry are considered; resources are available to meet that demand; using renewable resources would reduce emissions and fossil use by over 15%; further impacts are possible when considering synergistic benefits; additional analysis is underway to improve understanding of potential markets and synergistic impacts; and further analysis will be necessary to estimate impacts due to spatial characteristics, feedback effects in the economy, and inertia characteristics.

A Measure of the Potential Impact of Hospital Community Health Activities on Population Health and Equity.

PubMed

Begun, James W; Kahn, Linda M; Cunningham, Brooke A; Malcolm, Jan K; Potthoff, Sandra

2017-12-13

Many hospitals in the United States are exploring greater investment in community health activities that address upstream causes of poor health. Develop and apply a measure to categorize and estimate the potential impact of hospitals' community health activities on population health and equity. We propose a scale of potential impact on population health and equity, based on the cliff analogy developed by Jones and colleagues. The scale is applied to the 317 activities reported in the community health needs assessment implementation plan reports of 23 health care organizations in the Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota metropolitan area in 2015. Using a 5-point ordinal scale, we assigned a score of potential impact on population health and equity to each community health activity. A majority (50.2%) of health care organizations' community health activities are classified as addressing social determinants of health (level 4 on the 5-point scale), though very few (5.4%) address structural causes of health equity (level 5 on the 5-point scale). Activities that score highest on potential impact fall into the topic categories of "community health and connectedness" and "healthy lifestyles and wellness." Lower-scoring activities focus on sick or at-risk individuals, such as the topic category of "chronic disease prevention, management, and screening." Health care organizations in the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area vary substantially in the potential impact of their aggregated community health activities. Hospitals can be significant contributors to investment in upstream community health programs. This article provides a scale that can be used not only by hospitals but by other health care and public health organizations to better align their community health strategies, investments, and partnerships with programming and policies that address the foundational causes of population health and equity within the communities they serve.

Standby Conservation Plan No. 3: Emergency advertising lighting restrictions. Economic analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report analyzes the potential economic impacts of the Emergency Advertising Lighting Restrictions Plan. The on-premise signs located within the confines of a business and off-premise located outside the confines of a business are affected. Illuminated signs essential to direct customers to an open business by identifying it and/or to inform customers of a product or service supplied by the open business are not restricted. The economic impact of implementing this plan is evaluated by first estimating the amount of petroleum saved by the lighting restrictions and to evaluate the economic impacts that would result. The amount of oil thatmore » could be diverted to other uses by implementation of this plan is estimated in Chapter 2, and amounts to about 4,000 barrels per day (the period analyzed is the fourth quarter of 1980 through the third quarter of 1981). Redistribution of petroleum saved by this measure is expected to result in small increases in GNP, personal consumption, and employment. The effects on inflation are negligible. Economic impacts for the businesses are evaluated in Chapter 3. Costs of implementing the measure are estimated to be about $3.1 million, including the cost of reimbursing the states for functions delegated to them. (MCW)« less

Heavy Drinkers and the Potential Impact of Minimum Unit Pricing-No Single or Simple Effect?

PubMed

Gill, J; Black, H; Rush, R; O'May, F; Chick, J

2017-11-01

To explore the potential impact of a minimum unit price (MUP: 50 pence per UK unit) on the alcohol consumption of ill Scottish heavy drinkers. Participants were 639 patients attending alcohol treatment services or admitted to hospital with an alcohol-related condition. From their reported expenditure on alcohol in their index week, and assuming this remained unchanged, we estimated the impact of a MUP (50 ppu) on future consumption. (Around 15% purchased from both the more expensive on-sale outlets (hotels, pubs, bars) and from off-sales (shops and supermarkets). For them we estimated the change in consumption that might follow MUP if (i) they continued this proportion of 'on-sales' purchasing or (ii) their reported expenditure was moved entirely to off-sale purchasing (to maintain consumption levels)). Around 69% of drinkers purchased exclusively off-sale alcohol at <50 ppu. Their drinking, post MUP, may reduce by a mean of 33%. For this group, from a population of very heavy, ill consumers, we were unable to show a differential effect across multiple deprivation quintiles. For other drinkers there might be no reduction, especially if after MUP there were many products priced close to 50 ppu. Moving away from on-sales purchases could support, for some, an increase in consumption. While a proportion of our harmed, heavy drinkers might be able to mitigate the impact of MUP by changing purchasing habits, the majority are predicted to reduce purchasing. This analysis, focusing specifically on harmed drinkers, adds a unique dimension to the evidence base informing current pricing policy. From drink purchasing data of heavy drinkers, we estimated the impact of legislating £0.50 minimum unit price. Over two thirds of drinkers, representing all multiple deprivation quintiles, were predicted to decrease alcohol purchasing; remainder, hypothetically, could maintain consumption. Our data address an important gap within the evidence base informing policy. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Leadership development in a professional medical society using 360-degree survey feedback to assess emotional intelligence.

PubMed

Gregory, Paul J; Robbins, Benjamin; Schwaitzberg, Steven D; Harmon, Larry

2017-09-01

The current research evaluated the potential utility of a 360-degree survey feedback program for measuring leadership quality in potential committee leaders of a professional medical association (PMA). Emotional intelligence as measured by the extent to which self-other agreement existed in the 360-degree survey ratings was explored as a key predictor of leadership quality in the potential leaders. A non-experimental correlational survey design was implemented to assess the variation in leadership quality scores across the sample of potential leaders. A total of 63 of 86 (76%) of those invited to participate did so. All potential leaders received feedback from PMA Leadership, PMA Colleagues, and PMA Staff and were asked to complete self-ratings regarding their behavior. Analyses of variance revealed a consistent pattern of results as Under-Estimators and Accurate Estimators-Favorable were rated significantly higher than Over-Estimators in several leadership behaviors. Emotional intelligence as conceptualized in this study was positively related to overall performance ratings of potential leaders. The ever-increasing roles and potential responsibilities for PMAs suggest that these organizations should consider multisource performance reviews as these potential future PMA executives rise through their organizations to assume leadership positions with profound potential impact on healthcare. The current findings support the notion that potential leaders who demonstrated a humble pattern or an accurate pattern of self-rating scored significantly higher in their leadership, teamwork, and interpersonal/communication skills than those with an aggrandizing self-rating.

Diagnosing Undersampling Biases in Monte Carlo Eigenvalue and Flux Tally Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perfetti, Christopher M.; Rearden, Bradley T.; Marshall, William J.

2017-02-08

Here, this study focuses on understanding the phenomena in Monte Carlo simulations known as undersampling, in which Monte Carlo tally estimates may not encounter a sufficient number of particles during each generation to obtain unbiased tally estimates. Steady-state Monte Carlo simulations were performed using the KENO Monte Carlo tools within the SCALE code system for models of several burnup credit applications with varying degrees of spatial and isotopic complexities, and the incidence and impact of undersampling on eigenvalue and flux estimates were examined. Using an inadequate number of particle histories in each generation was found to produce a maximum bias of ~100 pcm in eigenvalue estimates and biases that exceeded 10% in fuel pin flux tally estimates. Having quantified the potential magnitude of undersampling biases in eigenvalue and flux tally estimates in these systems, this study then investigated whether Markov Chain Monte Carlo convergence metrics could be integrated into Monte Carlo simulations to predict the onset and magnitude of undersampling biases. Five potential metrics for identifying undersampling biases were implemented in the SCALE code system and evaluated for their ability to predict undersampling biases by comparing the test metric scores with the observed undersampling biases. Finally, of the five convergence metrics that were investigated, three (the Heidelberger-Welch relative half-width, the Gelman-Rubin more » $$\\hat{R}_c$$ diagnostic, and tally entropy) showed the potential to accurately predict the behavior of undersampling biases in the responses examined.« less

Estimation of inlet flow rates for image-based aneurysm CFD models: where and how to begin?

PubMed

Valen-Sendstad, Kristian; Piccinelli, Marina; KrishnankuttyRema, Resmi; Steinman, David A

2015-06-01

Patient-specific flow rates are rarely available for image-based computational fluid dynamics models. Instead, flow rates are often assumed to scale according to the diameters of the arteries of interest. Our goal was to determine how choice of inlet location and scaling law affect such model-based estimation of inflow rates. We focused on 37 internal carotid artery (ICA) aneurysm cases from the Aneurisk cohort. An average ICA flow rate of 245 mL min(-1) was assumed from the literature, and then rescaled for each case according to its inlet diameter squared (assuming a fixed velocity) or cubed (assuming a fixed wall shear stress). Scaling was based on diameters measured at various consistent anatomical locations along the models. Choice of location introduced a modest 17% average uncertainty in model-based flow rate, but within individual cases estimated flow rates could vary by >100 mL min(-1). A square law was found to be more consistent with physiological flow rates than a cube law. Although impact of parent artery truncation on downstream flow patterns is well studied, our study highlights a more insidious and potentially equal impact of truncation site and scaling law on the uncertainty of assumed inlet flow rates and thus, potentially, downstream flow patterns.

The cost-effectiveness of multi-purpose HIV and pregnancy prevention technologies in South Africa.

PubMed

Quaife, Matthew; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Eakle, Robyn; Cabrera Escobar, Maria A; Kilbourne-Brook, Maggie; Mvundura, Mercy; Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Vickerman, Peter

2018-03-01

A number of antiretroviral HIV prevention products are efficacious in preventing HIV infection. However, the sexual and reproductive health needs of many women extend beyond HIV prevention, and research is ongoing to develop multi-purpose prevention technologies (MPTs) that offer dual HIV and pregnancy protection. We do not yet know if these products will be an efficient use of constrained health resources. In this paper, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of candidate multi-purpose prevention technologies (MPTs), in South Africa among general population women and female sex workers (FSWs). We combined a cost model with a static model of product impact based on incidence data in South Africa to estimate the cost-effectiveness of five candidate co-formulated or co-provided MPTs: oral PrEP, intravaginal ring, injectable ARV, microbicide gel and SILCS diaphragm used in concert with gel. We accounted for the preferences of end-users by predicting uptake using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Product availability and protection were systematically varied in five potential rollout scenarios. The impact model estimated the number of infections averted through decreased incidence due to product use over one year. The comparator for each scenario was current levels of male condom use, while a health system perspective was used to estimate discounted lifetime treatment costs averted per HIV infection. Product benefit was estimated in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Benefits from contraception were incorporated through adjusting the uptake of these products based on the DCE and through estimating the costs averted from avoiding unwanted pregnancies. We explore the additional impact of STI protection through increased uptake in a sensitivity analysis. At central incidence rates, all single- and multi-purpose scenarios modelled were cost-effective among FSWs and women aged 16-24, at a governmental willingness-to-pay threshold of $1175/DALY averted (range: $214-$810/DALY averted among non-dominant scenarios), however, none were cost-effective among women aged 25-49 (minimum $1706/DALY averted). The cost-effectiveness of products improved with additional protection from pregnancy. Estimates were sensitive to variation in incidence assumptions, but robust to other parameters. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a range of potential MPTs; suggesting that MPTs will be cost-effective among higher incidence FSWs or young women, but not among lower incidence older women. More work is needed to make attractive MPTs available to potential users who could use them effectively. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.

Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

2015-12-01

The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

Estimating Upper Bounds for Occupancy and Number of Manatees in Areas Potentially Affected by Oil from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Dupuis, Jérôme A.; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Aven, Allen M.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Carmichael, Ruth H.; Fagan, Daniel E.; Ross, Monica A.; Reinert, Thomas R.

2014-01-01

The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation. PMID:24670971

Comparing different policy scenarios to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed foods in UK: impact on cardiovascular disease mortality using a modelling approach.

PubMed

Moreira, Patricia V L; Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Moubarac, Jean-Claude; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Newton, Alex; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2015-01-01

The global burden of non-communicable diseases partly reflects growing exposure to ultra-processed food products (UPPs). These heavily marketed UPPs are cheap and convenient for consumers and profitable for manufacturers, but contain high levels of salt, fat and sugars. This study aimed to explore the potential mortality reduction associated with future policies for substantially reducing ultra-processed food intake in the UK. We obtained data from the UK Living Cost and Food Survey and from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. By the NOVA food typology, all food items were categorized into three groups according to the extent of food processing: Group 1 describes unprocessed/minimally processed foods. Group 2 comprises processed culinary ingredients. Group 3 includes all processed or ultra-processed products. Using UK nutrient conversion tables, we estimated the energy and nutrient profile of each food group. We then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality from improved nutrient intakes reflecting shifts from processed or ultra-processed to unprocessed/minimally processed foods. We then conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulation. Approximately 175,000 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. However, halving the intake of Group 3 (processed) foods could result in approximately 22,055 fewer CVD related deaths in 2030 (minimum estimate 10,705, maximum estimate 34,625). An ideal scenario in which salt and fat intakes are reduced to the low levels observed in Group 1 and 2 could lead to approximately 14,235 (minimum estimate 6,680, maximum estimate 22,525) fewer coronary deaths and approximately 7,820 (minimum estimate 4,025, maximum estimate 12,100) fewer stroke deaths, comprising almost 13% mortality reduction. This study shows a substantial potential for reducing the cardiovascular disease burden through a healthier food system. It highlights the crucial importance of implementing healthier UK food policies.

Statistics, Uncertainty, and Transmitted Variation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendelberger, Joanne Roth

2014-11-05

The field of Statistics provides methods for modeling and understanding data and making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. When examining response functions, variation present in the input variables will be transmitted via the response function to the output variables. This phenomenon can potentially have significant impacts on the uncertainty associated with results from subsequent analysis. This presentation will examine the concept of transmitted variation, its impact on designed experiments, and a method for identifying and estimating sources of transmitted variation in certain settings.

The Use of Propensity Scores and Observational Data to Estimate Randomized Controlled Trial Generalizability Bias

PubMed Central

Pressler, Taylor R.; Kaizar, Eloise E.

2014-01-01

While randomized controlled trials (RCT) are considered the “gold standard” for clinical studies, the use of exclusion criteria may impact the external validity of the results. It is unknown whether estimators of effect size are biased by excluding a portion of the target population from enrollment. We propose to use observational data to estimate the bias due to enrollment restrictions, which we term generalizability bias. In this paper we introduce a class of estimators for the generalizability bias and use simulation to study its properties in the presence of non-constant treatment effects. We find the surprising result that our estimators can be unbiased for the true generalizability bias even when all potentially confounding variables are not measured. In addition, our proposed doubly robust estimator performs well even for mis-specified models. PMID:23553373

System Noise Assessment and the Potential for a Low Noise Hybrid Wing Body Aircraft with Open Rotor Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Russell H.; Burley, Casey L.; Lopes, Leonard V.; Bahr, Christopher J.; Gern, Frank H.; VanZante, Dale E.

2014-01-01

An aircraft system noise assessment was conducted for a hybrid wing body freighter aircraft concept configured with three open rotor engines. The primary objective of the study was to determine the aircraft system level noise given the significant impact of installation effects including shielding the open rotor noise by the airframe. The aircraft was designed to carry a payload of 100,000 lbs on a 6,500 nautical mile mission. An experimental database was used to establish the propulsion airframe aeroacoustic installation effects including those from shielding by the airframe planform, interactions with the control surfaces, and additional noise reduction technologies. A second objective of the study applied the impacts of projected low noise airframe technology and a projection of advanced low noise rotors appropriate for the NASA N+2 2025 timeframe. With the projection of low noise rotors and installation effects, the aircraft system level was 26.0 EPNLdB below Stage 4 level with the engine installed at 1.0 rotor diameters upstream of the trailing edge. Moving the engine to 1.5 rotor diameters brought the system level noise to 30.8 EPNLdB below Stage 4. At these locations on the airframe, the integrated level of installation effects including shielding can be as much as 20 EPNLdB cumulative in addition to lower engine source noise from advanced low noise rotors. And finally, an additional set of technology effects were identified and the potential impact at the system level was estimated for noise only without assessing the impact on aircraft performance. If these additional effects were to be included it is estimated that the potential aircraft system noise could reach as low as 38.0 EPNLdB cumulative below Stage 4.

Synergistic estimation of surface parameters from jointly using optical and microwave observations in EOLDAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, Joris; Gomez-Dans, Jose; Lewis, Philip; Loew, Alexander; Schlenz, Florian

2017-04-01

The large amount of remote sensing data nowadays available provides a huge potential for monitoring crop development, drought conditions and water efficiency. This potential however not been realized yet because algorithms for land surface parameter retrieval mostly use data from only a single sensor. Consequently products that combine different low-level observations from different sensors are hard to find. The lack of synergistic retrieval is caused because it is easier to focus on single sensor types/footprints and temporal observation times, than to find a way to compensate for differences. Different sensor types (microwave/optical) require different radiative transfer (RT) models and also require consistency between the models to have any impact on the retrieval of soil moisture by a microwave instrument. Varying spatial footprints require first proper collocation of the data before one can scale between different resolutions. Considering these problems, merging optical and microwave observations have not been performed yet. The goal of this research was to investigate the potential of integrating optical and microwave RT models within the Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EOLDAS) synergistically to derive biophysical parameters. This system uses a Bayesian data assimilation approach together with observation operators such as the PROSAIL model to estimate land surface parameters. For the purpose of enabling the system to integrate passive microwave radiation (from an ELBARRA II passive microwave radiometer), the Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM) RT-model, was integrated within the EOLDAS system. In order to quantify the potential, a variety of land surface parameters was chosen to be retrieved from the system, in particular variables that a) impact only optical RT (such as leaf water content and leaf dry matter), b) only impact the microwave RT (such as soil moisture and soil temperature), and c) Leaf Area Index (LAI) that impacts both optical and microwave RT. The results show a high potential when both optical and microwave are used independently. Using only RapidEye only with SAIL RT model, LAI was estimated with R=0.68 with p=0.09, although estimating leaf water content and dry matter showed lower correlations |R|<0.4. The results for retrieving soil temperature and leaf area index retrievals using only (passive microwave) Elbarra-II observations were good with respectively R=[0.85, 0.79], P=[0.0, 0.0], when focusing on dry-spells (of at least 9 days) only the results respectively [R=0.73, and P=0.0], and R=0.89 and R=0.77 for respectively the trend and anomalies. Synergistically using optical and microwave shows also a good potential. This scenario shows that absolute errors improved (with RMSE=1.22 and S=0.89), but with degrading correlations (R=0.59 and P=0.04); the sparse optical observations only improved part of the temporal domain. However in general the synergistic retrieval showed good potential; microwave data provides better information concerning the overall trend of the retrieved LAI due to the regular acquisitions, while optical data provides better information concerning the absolute values of the LAI.

Performance and Weight Estimates for an Advanced Open Rotor Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Eric S.; Tong, Michael T.

2012-01-01

NASA s Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project and Subsonic Fixed Wing Project are focused on developing concepts and technologies which may enable dramatic reductions to the environmental impact of future generation subsonic aircraft. The open rotor concept (also historically referred to an unducted fan or advanced turboprop) may allow for the achievement of this objective by reducing engine fuel consumption. To evaluate the potential impact of open rotor engines, cycle modeling and engine weight estimation capabilities have been developed. The initial development of the cycle modeling capabilities in the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) tool was presented in a previous paper. Following that initial development, further advancements have been made to the cycle modeling and weight estimation capabilities for open rotor engines and are presented in this paper. The developed modeling capabilities are used to predict the performance of an advanced open rotor concept using modern counter-rotating propeller designs. Finally, performance and weight estimates for this engine are presented and compared to results from a previous NASA study of advanced geared and direct-drive turbofans.

The impact of covariance misspecification in multivariate Gaussian mixtures on estimation and inference: an application to longitudinal modeling.

PubMed

Heggeseth, Brianna C; Jewell, Nicholas P

2013-07-20

Multivariate Gaussian mixtures are a class of models that provide a flexible parametric approach for the representation of heterogeneous multivariate outcomes. When the outcome is a vector of repeated measurements taken on the same subject, there is often inherent dependence between observations. However, a common covariance assumption is conditional independence-that is, given the mixture component label, the outcomes for subjects are independent. In this paper, we study, through asymptotic bias calculations and simulation, the impact of covariance misspecification in multivariate Gaussian mixtures. Although maximum likelihood estimators of regression and mixing probability parameters are not consistent under misspecification, they have little asymptotic bias when mixture components are well separated or if the assumed correlation is close to the truth even when the covariance is misspecified. We also present a robust standard error estimator and show that it outperforms conventional estimators in simulations and can indicate that the model is misspecified. Body mass index data from a national longitudinal study are used to demonstrate the effects of misspecification on potential inferences made in practice. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating the Potential Health Impact and Costs of Implementing a Local Policy for Food Procurement to Reduce the Consumption of Sodium in the County of Los Angeles

PubMed Central

Kuo, Tony; Dunet, Diane; Schmidt, Steven M.; Simon, Paul A.; Fielding, Jonathan E.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined approaches to reduce sodium content of food served in settings operated or funded by the government of the County of Los Angeles, California. Methods. We adapted health impact assessment methods to mathematically simulate various levels of reduction in the sodium content of food served by the County of Los Angeles and to estimate the reductions’ potential impacts on mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) among food-service customers. We used data provided by county government food-service vendors to generate these simulations. Results. Our analysis predicted that if the postulated sodium-reduction strategies were implemented, adults would consume, on average, 233 fewer milligrams of sodium each day. This would correspond to an average decrease of 0.71 millimeters of mercury in SBP among adult hypertensives, 388 fewer cases of uncontrolled hypertension in the study population, and an annual decrease of $629 724 in direct health care costs. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that a food-procurement policy can contribute to positive health and economic effects at the local level. Our approach may serve as an example of sodium-reduction analysis for other jurisdictions to follow. PMID:21680933

Linking intended visitation to regional economic impact models of bison and elk management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loomis, J.; Caughlan, L.

2004-01-01

This article links intended National Park visitation estimates to regional economic models to calculate the employment impacts of alternative bison and elk management strategies. The survey described alternative National Elk Refuge (NER) management actions and the effects on elk and bison populations at the NER and adjacent Grand Teton National Park (GTNP). Park visitors were then asked if they would change their number of visits with each potential management action. Results indicate there would be a 10% decrease in visitation if bison populations were reduced from 600 to 400 animals and elk populations were reduced in GTNP and the NER. The related decrease in jobs in Teton counties of Wyoming and Idaho is estimated at 5.5%. Adopting a “no active management” option of never feeding elk and bison on the NER yields about one-third the current bison population (200 bison) and about half the elk population. Visitors surveyed about this management option would take about 20% fewer trips, resulting in an 11.3% decrease in employment. Linking intended visitation surveys and regional economic models represents a useful tool for natural resource planners who must present the consequences of potential actions in Environmental Impact Statements and plans to the public and decision makers prior to any action being implemented.

Potential flue gas impurities in carbon dioxide streams separated from coal-fired power plants.

PubMed

Lee, Joo-Youp; Keener, Tim C; Yang, Y Jeffery

2009-06-01

For geological sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) separated from pulverized coal combustion flue gas, it is necessary to adequately evaluate the potential impacts of flue gas impurities on groundwater aquifers in the case of the CO2 leakage from its storage sites. This study estimated the flue gas impurities to be included in the CO2 stream separated from a CO2 control unit for a different combination of air pollution control devices and different flue gas compositions. Specifically, the levels of acid gases and mercury vapor were estimated for the monoethanolamine (MEA)-based absorption process on the basis of published performance parameters of existing systems. Among the flue gas constituents considered, sulfur dioxide (SO2) is known to have the most adverse impact on MEA absorption. When a flue gas contains 3000 parts per million by volume (ppmv) SO2 and a wet flue gas desulfurization system achieves its 95% removal, approximately 2400 parts per million by weight (ppmw) SO2 could be included in the separated CO2 stream. In addition, the estimated concentration level was reduced to as low as 135 ppmw for the SO2 of less than 10 ppmv in the flue gas entering the MEA unit. Furthermore, heat-stable salt formation could further reduce the SO2 concentration below 40 ppmw in the separated CO2 stream. In this study, it is realized that the formation rates of heat-stable salts in MEA solution are not readily available in the literature and are critical to estimating the levels and compositions of flue gas impurities in sequestered CO2 streams. In addition to SO2, mercury, and other impurities in separated CO2 streams could vary depending on pollutant removal at the power plants and impose potential impacts on groundwater. Such a variation and related process control in the upstream management of carbon separation have implications for groundwater protection at carbon sequestration sites and warrant necessary considerations in overall sequestration planning, engineering, and management.

Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

1997-01-01

The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

Modeling longitudinal data, I: principles of multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Ravani, Pietro; Barrett, Brendan; Parfrey, Patrick

2009-01-01

Statistical models are used to study the relationship between exposure and disease while accounting for the potential role of other factors' impact on outcomes. This adjustment is useful to obtain unbiased estimates of true effects or to predict future outcomes. Statistical models include a systematic component and an error component. The systematic component explains the variability of the response variable as a function of the predictors and is summarized in the effect estimates (model coefficients). The error element of the model represents the variability in the data unexplained by the model and is used to build measures of precision around the point estimates (confidence intervals).

Liana infestation impacts tree growth in a lowland tropical moist forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Heijden, G. M. F.; Phillips, O. L.

2009-03-01

Stand-level estimates of the effect of lianas on tree growth in mature tropical forests are needed to evaluate the functional impact of lianas and their potential to affect the ability of tropical forests to sequester carbon, but these are currently lacking. Using data collected on tree growth rates, local growing conditions and liana competition in five permanent sampling plots in Amazonian Peru, we present the first such estimates of the effect of lianas on above-ground productivity of trees. By constructing a multi-level linear mixed effect model to predict individual tree diameter growth model using individual tree growth conditions, we were able to estimate stand-level above-ground biomass (AGB) increment in the absence of lianas. We show that lianas, mainly by competing above-ground with trees, reduce tree annual above-ground stand-level biomass by ~10%, equivalent to 0.51 Mg dry weight ha-1 yr-1 or 0.25 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. AGB increment of lianas themselves was estimated to be 0.15 Mg dry weight ha-1 yr-1 or 0.07 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, thus only compensating ~29% of the liana-induced reduction in stand-level AGB increment. Increasing liana pressure on tropical forests may therefore not only reduce their carbon storage capacity, by indirectly promoting tree species with low-density wood, but also their rate of carbon uptake, with potential consequences for the rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Liana infestation impacts tree growth in a lowland tropical moist forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Heijden, G. M. F.; Phillips, O. L.

2009-10-01

Ecosystem-level estimates of the effect of lianas on tree growth in mature tropical forests are needed to evaluate the functional impact of lianas and their potential to affect the ability of tropical forests to sequester carbon, but these are currently lacking. Using data collected on tree growth rates, local growing conditions and liana competition in five permanent sampling plots in Amazonian Peru, we present the first ecosystem-level estimates of the effect of lianas on above-ground productivity of trees. By first constructing a multi-level linear mixed effect model to predict individual-tree diameter growth model using individual-tree growth conditions, we were able to then estimate stand-level above-ground biomass (AGB) increment in the absence of lianas. We show that lianas, mainly by competing above-ground with trees, reduce tree annual above-ground stand-level biomass increment by ~10%, equivalent to 0.51 Mg dry weight ha-1 yr-1 or 0.25 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. AGB increment of lianas themselves was estimated to be 0.15 Mg dry weight ha-1 yr-1 or 0.07 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, thus only compensating ~29% of the liana-induced reduction in ecosystem AGB increment. Increasing liana pressure on tropical forests will therefore not only tend to reduce their carbon storage capacity, by indirectly promoting tree species with low-density wood, but also their rate of carbon uptake, with potential consequences for the rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

PubMed

Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

2016-09-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential impact of a social redistribution of specific risk factors on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: illustration of a method based on population attributable fractions.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje Andreas; Kulhánová, Ivana; Dahl, Espen; Deboosere, Patrick; Dzúrová, Dagmar; van Oyen, Herman; Rychtaríková, Jitka; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Mackenbach, Johan P

2013-01-01

Socioeconomic differences in health are a major challenge for public health. However, realistic estimates to what extent they are modifiable are scarce. This problem can be met through the systematic application of the population attributable fraction (PAF) to socioeconomic health inequalities. The authors used cause-specific mortality data by educational level from Belgium, Norway and Czech Republic and data on the prevalence of smoking, alcohol, lack of physical activity and high body mass index from national health surveys. Information on the impact of these risk factors on mortality comes from the epidemiological literature. The authors calculated PAFs to quantify the impact on socioeconomic health inequalities of a social redistribution of risk factors. The authors developed an Excel tool covering a wide range of possible scenarios and the authors compare the results of the PAF approach with a conventional regression. In a scenario where the whole population gets the risk factor prevalence currently seen among the highly educated inequalities in mortality can be reduced substantially. According to the illustrative results, the reduction of inequality for all risk factors combined varies between 26% among Czech men and 94% among Norwegian men. Smoking has the highest impact for both genders, and physical activity has more impact among women. After discussing the underlying assumptions of the PAF, the authors concluded that the approach is promising for estimating the extent to which health inequalities can be potentially reduced by interventions on specific risk factors. This reduction is likely to differ substantially between countries, risk factors and genders.

Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics - A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sébastien; Falcone, Jean-Luc; Bonadonna, Costanza; Di Traglia, Federico; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Lestuzzi, Pierino

2016-10-01

We present a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard posed by volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) and their potential impact on the built environment. A model named Great Balls of Fire (GBF) is introduced to describe ballistic trajectories of VBPs accounting for a variable drag coefficient and topography. It relies on input parameters easily identifiable in the field and is designed to model large numbers of VBPs stochastically. Associated functions come with the GBF code to post-process model outputs into a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for VBP impacts. Outcomes include probability maps to exceed given thresholds of kinetic energies at impact, hazard curves and probabilistic isoenergy maps. Probabilities are calculated either on equally-sized pixels or zones of interest. The approach is calibrated, validated and applied to La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island (Italy). We constructed a generic eruption scenario based on stratigraphic studies and numerical inversions of the 1888-1890 long-lasting Vulcanian cycle of La Fossa. Results suggest a ~ 10- 2% probability of occurrence of VBP impacts with kinetic energies ≤ 104 J at the touristic locality of Porto. In parallel, the vulnerability to roof perforation was estimated by combining field observations and published literature, allowing for a first estimate of the potential impact of VBPs during future Vulcanian eruptions. Results indicate a high physical vulnerability to the VBP hazard, and, consequently, half of the building stock having a ≥ 2.5 × 10- 3% probability of roof perforation.

Horizontal spacing, depletion, and infill potential in the Austin Chalk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyte, D.G.; Meehan, D.N.

1996-12-31

There have been more than 4500 laterals drilled in the Austin Chalk. This paper looks at estimated ultimate recoveries (EUR) on a barrels/acre basis for these Austin Chalk wells. Baffels/acre recoveries were computed by estimating ultimate per-well recoveries, drilled density and the impact of vertical production. The data were then analyzed for depletion and infill potential. Certain areas were selected for further study using an artificial neural network. The network was built and used to study the effects of parameters such as lateral length, first production date, structure of the Austin Chalk, etc. on these recoverable barrel/acre numbers. The methodologymore » and regional results of the study are reviewed with detailed analyses shown in selected areas.« less

Impact of pesticide exposure misclassification on estimates of relative risks in the Agricultural Health Study.

PubMed

Blair, Aaron; Thomas, Kent; Coble, Joseph; Sandler, Dale P; Hines, Cynthia J; Lynch, Charles F; Knott, Charles; Purdue, Mark P; Zahm, Shelia Hoar; Alavanja, Michael C R; Dosemeci, Mustafa; Kamel, Freya; Hoppin, Jane A; Freeman, Laura Beane; Lubin, Jay H

2011-07-01

The Agricultural Health Study (AHS) is a prospective study of licensed pesticide applicators and their spouses in Iowa and North Carolina. We evaluate the impact of occupational pesticide exposure misclassification on relative risks using data from the cohort and the AHS Pesticide Exposure Study (AHS/PES). We assessed the impact of exposure misclassification on relative risks using the range of correlation coefficients observed between measured post-application urinary levels of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and a chlorpyrifos metabolite and exposure estimates based on an algorithm from 83 AHS pesticide applications. Correlations between urinary levels of 2,4-D and a chlorpyrifos metabolite and algorithm estimated intensity scores were about 0.4 for 2,4-D (n=64), 0.8 for liquid chlorpyrifos (n=4) and 0.6 for granular chlorpyrifos (n=12). Correlations of urinary levels with kilograms of active ingredient used, duration of application, or number of acres treated were lower and ranged from -0.36 to 0.19. These findings indicate that a priori expert-derived algorithm scores were more closely related to measured urinary levels than individual exposure determinants evaluated here. Estimates of potential bias in relative risks based on the correlations from the AHS/PES indicate that non-differential misclassification of exposure using the algorithm would bias estimates towards the null, but less than that from individual exposure determinants. Although correlations between algorithm scores and urinary levels were quite good (ie, correlations between 0.4 and 0.8), exposure misclassification would still bias relative risk estimates in the AHS towards the null and diminish study power.

An ensemble approach to predicting the impact of vaccination on rotavirus disease in Niger.

PubMed

Park, Jaewoo; Goldstein, Joshua; Haran, Murali; Ferrari, Matthew

2017-10-13

Recently developed vaccines provide a new way of controlling rotavirus in sub-Saharan Africa. Models for the transmission dynamics of rotavirus are critical both for estimating current burden from imperfect surveillance and for assessing potential effects of vaccine intervention strategies. We examine rotavirus infection in the Maradi area in southern Niger using hospital surveillance data provided by Epicentre collected over two years. Additionally, a cluster survey of households in the region allows us to estimate the proportion of children with diarrhea who consulted at a health structure. Model fit and future projections are necessarily particular to a given model; thus, where there are competing models for the underlying epidemiology an ensemble approach can account for that uncertainty. We compare our results across several variants of Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental models to quantify the impact of modeling assumptions on our estimates. Model-specific parameters are estimated by Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We then use Bayesian model averaging to generate ensemble estimates of the current dynamics, including estimates of R 0 , the burden of infection in the region, as well as the impact of vaccination on both the short-term dynamics and the long-term reduction of rotavirus incidence under varying levels of coverage. The ensemble of models predicts that the current burden of severe rotavirus disease is 2.6-3.7% of the population each year and that a 2-dose vaccine schedule achieving 70% coverage could reduce burden by 39-42%. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Implicit assumptions underlying simple harvest models of marine bird populations can mislead environmental management decisions.

PubMed

O'Brien, Susan H; Cook, Aonghais S C P; Robinson, Robert A

2017-10-01

Assessing the potential impact of additional mortality from anthropogenic causes on animal populations requires detailed demographic information. However, these data are frequently lacking, making simple algorithms, which require little data, appealing. Because of their simplicity, these algorithms often rely on implicit assumptions, some of which may be quite restrictive. Potential Biological Removal (PBR) is a simple harvest model that estimates the number of additional mortalities that a population can theoretically sustain without causing population extinction. However, PBR relies on a number of implicit assumptions, particularly around density dependence and population trajectory that limit its applicability in many situations. Among several uses, it has been widely employed in Europe in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), to examine the acceptability of potential effects of offshore wind farms on marine bird populations. As a case study, we use PBR to estimate the number of additional mortalities that a population with characteristics typical of a seabird population can theoretically sustain. We incorporated this level of additional mortality within Leslie matrix models to test assumptions within the PBR algorithm about density dependence and current population trajectory. Our analyses suggest that the PBR algorithm identifies levels of mortality which cause population declines for most population trajectories and forms of population regulation. Consequently, we recommend that practitioners do not use PBR in an EIA context for offshore wind energy developments. Rather than using simple algorithms that rely on potentially invalid implicit assumptions, we recommend use of Leslie matrix models for assessing the impact of additional mortality on a population, enabling the user to explicitly define assumptions and test their importance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jianguo; Jiang, Qian; Xu, Xi; Liu, Gang; Ebi, Kristie L.; Drewnowski, Adam

2018-01-01

Declines of protein and minerals essential for humans, including iron and zinc, have been reported for crops in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2]. For the current century, estimates of the potential human health impact of these declines range from 138 million to 1.4 billion, depending on the nutrient. However, changes in plant-based vitamin content in response to [CO2] have not been elucidated. Inclusion of vitamin information would substantially improve estimates of health risks. Among crop species, rice is the primary food source for more than 2 billion people. We used multiyear, multilocation in situ FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment) experiments for 18 genetically diverse rice lines, including Japonica, Indica, and hybrids currently grown throughout Asia. We report for the first time the integrated nutritional impact of those changes (protein, micronutrients, and vitamins) for the 10 countries that consume the most rice as part of their daily caloric supply. Whereas our results confirm the declines in protein, iron, and zinc, we also find consistent declines in vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9 and, conversely, an increase in vitamin E. A strong correlation between the impacts of elevated [CO2] on vitamin content based on the molecular fraction of nitrogen within the vitamin was observed. Finally, potential health risks associated with anticipated CO2-induced deficits of protein, minerals, and vitamins in rice were correlated to the lowest overall gross domestic product per capita for the highest rice-consuming countries, suggesting potential consequences for a global population of approximately 600 million. PMID:29806023

Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries.

PubMed

Zhu, Chunwu; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko; Loladze, Irakli; Zhu, Jianguo; Jiang, Qian; Xu, Xi; Liu, Gang; Seneweera, Saman; Ebi, Kristie L; Drewnowski, Adam; Fukagawa, Naomi K; Ziska, Lewis H

2018-05-01

Declines of protein and minerals essential for humans, including iron and zinc, have been reported for crops in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO 2 ]. For the current century, estimates of the potential human health impact of these declines range from 138 million to 1.4 billion, depending on the nutrient. However, changes in plant-based vitamin content in response to [CO 2 ] have not been elucidated. Inclusion of vitamin information would substantially improve estimates of health risks. Among crop species, rice is the primary food source for more than 2 billion people. We used multiyear, multilocation in situ FACE (free-air CO 2 enrichment) experiments for 18 genetically diverse rice lines, including Japonica, Indica, and hybrids currently grown throughout Asia. We report for the first time the integrated nutritional impact of those changes (protein, micronutrients, and vitamins) for the 10 countries that consume the most rice as part of their daily caloric supply. Whereas our results confirm the declines in protein, iron, and zinc, we also find consistent declines in vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9 and, conversely, an increase in vitamin E. A strong correlation between the impacts of elevated [CO 2 ] on vitamin content based on the molecular fraction of nitrogen within the vitamin was observed. Finally, potential health risks associated with anticipated CO 2 -induced deficits of protein, minerals, and vitamins in rice were correlated to the lowest overall gross domestic product per capita for the highest rice-consuming countries, suggesting potential consequences for a global population of approximately 600 million.

Impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration patterns on downscaling soil moisture in regions with large topographic relief

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mapping of soil moisture is important for many applications such as flood forecasting, soil protection, and crop management. Soil moisture can be estimated at coarse resolutions (>1 km) using satellite remote sensing, but that resolution is poorly suited for many applications. The Equilibrium Mois...

Coordinated pre-preemption of traffic signals to enhance railroad grade crossing safety in urban areas and estimation of train impacts to arterial travel time delay : [technical summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

Rail lines present two major challenges to the : roadways they intersect: potential for collisions : and increased congestion. In addition, congestion : can contribute collision hazards when drivers are : impatient or vehicles are prevented from clea...

NREL Partners with California's Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority

Science.gov Websites

Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) - a high-level simulation tool for estimating the impact of , manager of the Transportation Systems Group in NREL's Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center. " ;NREL will provide modeling and analytics on the potential scope of energy services associated with VGI

Logging-related increases in stream density in a northern California watershed

Treesearch

Matthew S. Buffleben

2012-01-01

Although many sediment budgets estimate the effects of logging, few have considered the potential impact of timber harvesting on stream density. Failure to consider changes in stream density could lead to large errors in the sediment budget, particularly between the allocation of natural and anthropogenic sources of sediment.This study...

Characterizing sources of emissions from wildland fires

Treesearch

Roger D. Ottmar; Ana Isabel Miranda; David V. Sandberg

2009-01-01

Smoke emissions from wildland fire can be harmful to human health and welfare, impair visibility, and contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. The generation of emissions and heat release need to be characterized to estimate the potential impacts of wildland fire smoke. This requires explicit knowledge of the source, including size of the area burned, burn period,...

CORRECTION FOR THE IMPACTS OF COVARIANCE BETWEEN CONCENTRATION AND DEPOSITION VELOCITY OR CASTNET HNO, DEPOSITION ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

The covariance between hourly concentration (C) and deposition velocity (V) for various atmospheric; species may act to bias the, deposition (D) computed from the product of the weekly average C and 'V. This is a potential problem for the CASTNet filter pack (FP) species, nitric ...

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Oak pollen season length for moderate (RCP4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) are estimated through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts asso...

POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF THE MYSID, AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA, TO VARYING THIOBENCARB CONCENTRATIONS BASED ON AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATION MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

To fully understand the potential long-term ecological impacts a pollutant has on a species, population-level effects must be estimated. Since long-term field experiments are typically not feasible, vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction of individual organisms ar...

Coordinated pre-preemption of traffic signals to enhance railroad grade crossing safety in urban areas and estimation of train impacts to arterial travel time delay.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

This research project investigated the potential for using advanced features of traffic signal system software platforms : (ATMS.now), prevalent in Florida, to alleviate safety and mobility problems at highway-railroad at-grade crossings and : adjace...

Comparison of Sampling Methods to Determine the Impact of Aerobic Biodegradation on Benzene Concentrations at UST Sites

EPA Science Inventory

This material will be interesting to regulators and contractors who collect samples of soil gas to estimate the potential for vapor intrusion of buildings. In the absence of biodegradation, transport of vapors through the unsaturated zone is expected to be by diffusion, and t...

Quantifying Security Threats and Their Potential Impacts: A Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T

In earlier works, we present a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we illustrate this infrastructure by means of an e-commerce application.

A wedge-based approach to estimating health co-benefits of climate change mitigation activities in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balbus, John M.; Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Chari, Ramya

While it has been recognized that actions reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can have significant positive and negative impacts on human health through reductions in ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations, these impacts are rarely taken into account when analyzing specific policies. This study presents a new framework for estimating the change in health outcomes resulting from implementation of specific carbon dioxide (CO 2) reduction activities, allowing comparison of different sectors and options for climate mitigation activities. Our estimates suggest that in the year 2020, the reductions in adverse health outcomes from lessened exposure to PM2.5 would yield economic benefitsmore » in the range of $6 to $14 billion (in 2008 USD), depending on the specific activity. This equates to between $40 and $93 per metric ton of CO 2 in health benefits. Specific climate interventions will vary in the health co-benefits they provide as well as in potential harms that may result from their implementation. Rigorous assessment of these health impacts is essential for guiding policy decisions as efforts to reduce GHG emissions increase in scope and intensity.« less

The Value of Wind Technology Innovation: Implications for the U.S. Power System, Wind Industry, Electricity Consumers, and Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu T; Lantz, Eric J; Mowers, Matthew

Improvements to wind technologies have, in part, led to substantial deployment of U.S. wind power in recent years. The degree to which technology innovation will continue is highly uncertain adding to uncertainties in future wind deployment. We apply electric sector modeling to estimate the potential wind deployment opportunities across a range of technology advancement projections. The suite of projections considered span a wide range of possible cost and technology innovation trajectories, including those from a recent expert elicitation of wind energy experts, a projection based on the broader literature, and one reflecting estimates based on a U.S. DOE research initiative.more » In addition, we explore how these deployment pathways may impact the electricity system, electricity consumers, the environment, and the wind-related workforce. Overall, our analysis finds that wind technology innovation can have consequential implications for future wind power development throughout the United States, impact the broader electricity system, lower electric system and consumer costs, provide potential environmental benefits, and grow the U.S. wind workforce.« less

Advective and diapycnal diffusive oceanic flux in Tenerife - La Gomera Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero-Díaz, A.; Rodriguez-Santana, A.; Hernández-Arencibia, M.; Machín, F.; García-Weil, L.

2012-04-01

During the year 2008, using the commercial passenger ship Volcán de Tauce of the Naviera Armas company several months, it was possible to obtain vertical profiles of temperature from expandable bathythermograph probes in eight stations across the Tenerife - La Gomera channel. With these data of temperature we have been estimated vertical sections of potential density and geostrophic transport with high spatial and temporal resolution (5 nm between stations, and one- two months between cruises). The seasonal variability obtained for the geostrophic transport in this channel shows important differences with others Canary Islands channels. From potential density and geostrophic velocity data we estimated the vertical diffusion coefficients and diapycnal diffusive fluxes, using a parameterization that depends of Richardson gradient number. In the center of the channel and close to La Gomera Island, we found higher values for these diffusive fluxes. Convergence and divergence of these fluxes requires further study so that we can draw conclusions about its impact on the distribution of nutrients in the study area and its impact in marine ecosystems. This work is being used in research projects TRAMIC and PROMECA.

Potential Impact of Global Navigation Satellite Services on Total Power HI Intensity Mapping Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Stuart E.; Dickinson, Clive

2018-06-01

Future total-power single-dish HI intensity mapping (HI IM) surveys have the potential to provide unprecedented insight into late time (z < 1) cosmology that are competitive with Stage IV dark energy surveys. However, redshifts between 0 < z < 0.2 lie within the transmission bands of global navigation satellite services (GNSS), and even at higher redshifts out-of-band leakage from GNSS satellites may be problematic. We estimate the impact of GNSS satellites on future single-dish HI IM surveys using realistic estimates of both the total power and spectral structure of GNSS signals convolved with a model SKA beam. Using a model of the SKA phase one array with 200 dishes we simulate a HI IM survey covering 30000 sq. deg. of sky. We compare the integrated GNSS emission on the sky with the expected HI signal. It is found that for frequencies >950 MHz the emission from GNSS satellites will exceed the expected HI signal for all angular scales to which the SKA is sensitive when operating in single-dish mode.

Impact of dental therapists on productivity and finances: III. FQHC-run, school-based dental care programs in Connecticut.

PubMed

Bailit, Howard L; Beazoglou, Tryfon J; DeVitto, Judy; McGowan, Taegen; Myne-Joslin, Veronica

2012-08-01

In many developed countries, the primary role of dental therapists is to care for children in school clinics. This article describes Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC)-run, school-based dental programs in Connecticut and explores the theoretical financial impact of substituting dental therapists for dentists in these programs. In schools, dental hygienists screen children and provide preventive services, using portable equipment and temporary space. Children needing dentist services are referred to FQHC clinics or to FQHC-employed dentists who provide care in schools. The primary findings of this study are that school-based programs have considerable potential to reduce access disparities and the estimated reduction in per patient costs approaches 50 percent versus providing care in FQHC dental clinics. In terms of substituting dental therapists for dentists, the estimated additional financial savings was found to be about 5 percent. Nationally, FQHC-operated, school-based dental programs have the potential to increase Medicaid/CHIP utilization from the current 40 percent to 60 percent for a relatively modest increase in total expenditures.

Ecological Energetics of an Abundant Aerial Insectivore, the Purple Martin

PubMed Central

Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Bridge, Eli S.; Frick, Winifred F.; Chilson, Phillip B.

2013-01-01

The atmospheric boundary layer and lower free atmosphere, or aerosphere, is increasingly important for human transportation, communication, environmental monitoring, and energy production. The impacts of anthropogenic encroachment into aerial habitats are not well understood. Insectivorous birds and bats are inherently valuable components of biodiversity and play an integral role in aerial trophic dynamics. Many of these insectivores are experiencing range-wide population declines. As a first step toward gaging the potential impacts of these declines on the aerosphere’s trophic system, estimates of the biomass and energy consumed by aerial insectivores are needed. We developed a suite of energetics models for one of the largest and most common avian aerial insectivores in North America, the Purple Martin ( Progne subis ). The base model estimated that Purple Martins consumed 412 (± 104) billion insects*y-1 with a biomass of 115,860 (± 29,192) metric tonnes*y-1. During the breeding season Purple Martins consume 10.3 (+ 3.0) kg of prey biomass per km3 of aerial habitat, equal to about 36,000 individual insects*km-3. Based on these calculations, the cumulative seasonal consumption of insects*km-3 is greater in North America during the breeding season than during other phases of the annual cycle, however the maximum daily insect consumption*km-3 occurs during fall migration. This analysis provides the first range-wide quantitative estimate of the magnitude of the trophic impact of this large and common aerial insectivore. Future studies could use a similar modeling approach to estimate impacts of the entire guild of aerial insectivores at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. These analyses would inform our understanding of the impact of population declines among aerial insectivores on the aerosphere’s trophic dynamics. PMID:24086755

Shale Gas and Oil in Germany - Resources and Environmental Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladage, Stefan; Blumenberg, Martin; Houben, Georg; Pfunt, Helena; Gestermann, Nicolai; Franke, Dieter; Erbacher, Jochen

2017-04-01

In light of the controversial debate on "unconventional" oil and gas resources and the environmental impacts of "fracking", the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) conducted a comprehensive resource assessment of shale gas and light tight oil in Germany and studied the potential environmental impacts of shale gas development and hydraulic fracturing from a geoscientific perspective. Here, we present our final results (BGR 2016), incorporating the majority of potential shale source rock formations in Germany. Besides shale gas, light tight oil has been assessed. According to our set of criteria - i.e. thermal maturity 0.6-1.2 %vitrinite reflectance (VR; oil) and >1.2 % VR (gas) respectively, organic carbon content > 2%, depth between 500/1000 m and 5000 m as well as a net thickness >20 m - seven potentially generative shale formations were indentified, the most important of them being the Lower Jurassic (Toarcian) Posidonia shale with both shale gas and tight oil potential. The North German basin is by far the most prolific basin. The resource assessment was carried out using a volumetric in-place approach. Variability inherent in the input parameters was accounted for using Monte-Carlo simulations. Technically recoverable resources (TRR) were estimated using recent, production-based recovery factors of North American shale plays and also employing Monte-Carlo simulations. In total, shale gas TRR range between 320 and 2030 bcm and tight oil TRR between 13 and 164 Mio. t in Germany. Tight oil potential is therefore considered minor, whereas the shale gas potential exceeds that of conventional resources by far. Furthermore an overview of numerical transport modelling approaches concerning environmental impacts of the hydraulic fracturing is given. These simulations are based on a representative lithostratigraphy model of the North-German basin, where major shale plays can be expected. Numerical hydrogeological modelling of frac fluid migration in the subsurface has been conducted, as well as stress modelling to estimate frac dimension magnitudes and the potential frequency of induced seismity. The results of these simulations reveal that the probabiltiy of impacts on shallow groundwater by the upward migration of fracking fluids from a deep shale formation through the geological underground in the North German basin is small. BGR 2016 - Schieferöl und Schiefergas in Deutschland - Potenziale und Umweltaspekte, 197p, Hannover, 2016: http://www.bgr.bund.de/DE/Themen/Energie/Downloads/Abschlussbericht_13MB_Schieferoelgaspotenzial_Deutschland_2016.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=5.

Projecting the current and future potential global distribution of Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Zhu, Chenyi; Wang, Tao; Xu, Zhichun; Shixiang, Zong

2018-05-23

The international invasive and quarantined defoliating insect Hyphantria cunea Drury (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) causes huge ecological and economic losses in the world. The future climate change may alter the distribution of H. cunea and aggravate the damage. In the present study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of H. cunea according to both historical climate data (1950-2000) and future climate warming estimates (2011-2100) to define the impact of climate change. Under the historical climate scenario, we found that H. cunea can survive on every continent, and temperature is the main factor that limits its establishment. With climate change, the suitability will increase in middle and high latitude regions, while decrease in the low latitude regions. Besides, tropic regions will be most sensitive to the climate change impacts for the pest to survive. The impacts of climate change will also increase over time, whether the positive impacts or negative impacts. The projected potential distributions provide a theoretical basis for quarantine and control strategies for the management of this pest in each country. Furthermore, these results provide substantial guidance for studies of the effects of climate change on other major forest pests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Use of National Syphilis Surveillance Data to Develop a Congenital Syphilis Prevention Cascade and Estimate the Number of Potential Congenital Syphilis Cases Averted.

PubMed

Kidd, Sarah; Bowen, Virginia B; Torrone, Elizabeth A; Bolan, Gail

2018-03-14

Recent increases in reported congenital syphilis have led to an urgent need to identify interventions that will have the greatest impact on congenital syphilis prevention. We sought to create a congenital syphilis prevention cascade using national syphilis surveillance data to (1) estimate the proportion of potential congenital syphilis cases averted with current prevention efforts, and (2) develop a classification framework to better describe why reported cases were not averted. We reviewed national syphilis and congenital syphilis case report data from 2016, including pregnancy status of all reported female syphilis cases and data on prenatal care, testing, and treatment status of mothers of reported congenital syphilis cases to derive estimates of the proportion of pregnant women with syphilis who received prenatal care, syphilis testing, and adequate syphilis treatment at least 30 days prior to delivery, as well as the proportion of potential congenital syphilis cases averted. Among the 2,508 pregnant women who were reported to have syphilis, an estimated 88.0% received prenatal care at least 30 days prior to delivery, 89.4% were tested for syphilis at least 30 days prior to delivery, and 76.9% received an adequate treatment regimen that began at least 30 days prior to delivery. Overall, an estimated 1,928 (75.0%) potential congenital syphilis cases in the United States were successfully averted. Among states that reported at least 10 syphilis cases among pregnant women, the estimated proportion of potential congenital syphilis cases averted ranged from 55.0% to 92.3%. While the majority of potential congenital syphilis cases in the United States were averted in 2016, there was substantial geographic variation, and significant gaps in delivering timely prenatal care, syphilis testing, and adequate treatment to pregnant women with syphilis were identified. The congenital syphilis prevention cascade is a useful tool to quantify programmatic successes and identify where improvements are needed.

Economic Impacts Analysis of Shale Gas Investment in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shangfeng; Zhang, Baosheng; Wang, Xuecheng

2018-01-01

Chinese government has announced an ambitious shale gas extraction plan, which requires significant investment. This has the potential to draw investment from other areas and may affect the whole China’s economy. There is few study to date has quantified these shale gas investment’s effects on Chinese economy. The aim of this paper is to quantify the economic effect and figures out whether shale gas investment in China is a good choice or not. Input-output analysis has been utilized in this study to estimate the economic impacts in four different Chinese regions. Our findings show that shale gas investment will result in approximately 868, 427, 115 and 42 Billion RMB economic impacts in Sichuan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and Guizhou, respectively. The total economic impact is only around 1453 Billion RMB, which is not significant compared to the economic impact of coalbed methane investment. Considering the potential risks of environmental issues, we suggest that it may be a better strategy for the government, at least in the current situation, to slow down shale gas development investment.

Menu labeling as a potential strategy for combating the obesity epidemic: a health impact assessment.

PubMed

Kuo, Tony; Jarosz, Christopher J; Simon, Paul; Fielding, Jonathan E

2009-09-01

We conducted a health impact assessment to quantify the potential impact of a state menu-labeling law on population weight gain in Los Angeles County, California. We utilized published and unpublished data to model consumer response to point-of-purchase calorie postings at large chain restaurants in Los Angeles County. We conducted sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in consumer response and in the total annual revenue, market share, and average meal price of large chain restaurants in the county. Assuming that 10% of the restaurant patrons would order reduced-calorie meals in response to calorie postings, resulting in an average reduction of 100 calories per meal, we estimated that menu labeling would avert 40.6% of the 6.75 million pound average annual weight gain in the county population aged 5 years and older. Substantially larger impacts would be realized if higher percentages of patrons ordered reduced-calorie meals or if average per-meal calorie reductions increased. Our findings suggest that mandated menu labeling could have a sizable salutary impact on the obesity epidemic, even with only modest changes in consumer behavior.

Environmental assessment of gas management options at the Old Ammässuo landfill (Finland) by means of LCA-modeling (EASEWASTE).

PubMed

Manfredi, Simone; Niskanen, Antti; Christensen, Thomas H

2009-05-01

The current landfill gas (LFG) management (based on flaring and utilization for heat generation of the collected gas) and three potential future gas management options (LFG flaring, heat generation and combined heat and power generation) for the Old Ammässuo landfill (Espoo, Finland) were evaluated by life-cycle assessment modeling. The evaluation accounts for all resource utilization and emissions to the environment related to the gas generation and management for a life-cycle time horizon of 100 yr. The assessment criteria comprise standard impact categories (global warming, photo-chemical ozone formation, stratospheric ozone depletion, acidification and nutrient enrichment) and toxicity-related impact categories (human toxicity via soil, via water and via air, eco-toxicity in soil and in water chronic). The results of the life-cycle impact assessment show that disperse emissions of LFG from the landfill surface determine the highest potential impacts in terms of global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and human toxicity via soil. Conversely, the impact potentials estimated for other categories are numerically-negative when the collected LFG is utilized for energy generation, demonstrating that net environmental savings can be obtained. Such savings are proportional to the amount of gas utilized for energy generation and the gas energy recovery efficiency achieved, which thus have to be regarded as key parameters. As a result, the overall best performance is found for the heat generation option - as it has the highest LFG utilization/energy recovery rates - whereas the worst performance is estimated for the LFG flaring option, as no LFG is here utilized for energy generation. Therefore, to reduce the environmental burdens caused by the current gas management strategy, more LFG should be used for energy generation. This inherently requires a superior LFG capture rate that, in addition, would reduce fugitive emissions of LFG from the landfill surface, bringing further environmental benefits.

Community Near-Port Modeling System (C-PORT): Briefing for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

What C-PORT is: Screening level tool for assessing port activities and exploring the range of potential impacts that changes to port operations might have on local air quality; Analysis of decision alternatives through mapping of the likely pattern of potential pollutant dispersion and an estimated change in pollutant concentrations for user-designated scenarios; Designed primarily to evaluate the local air quality impacts of proposed port expansion or modernization, as well as to identify options for mitigating any impacts; Currently includes data from 21 US seaports and features a map-based interface similar to the widely used Google Earth; Still under development, C-PORT is designed as an easy-to-use computer modeling tool for users, such as state air quality managers and planners. This is part of our product outreach prior to model public release and to solicit for additional beta testers.

Modelling the Health Impact of an English Sugary Drinks Duty at National and Local Levels

PubMed Central

Collins, Brendan; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin; Timpson, Hannah; Razzaq, Abdul; Cheater, Sylvia; Ireland, Robin; Bromley, Helen

2015-01-01

Background Increasing evidence associates excess refined sugar intakes with obesity, Type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Worryingly, the estimated volume of sugary drinks purchased in the UK has more than doubled between 1975 and 2007, from 510ml to 1140ml per person per week. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of a duty on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) at a local level in England, hypothesising that a duty could reduce obesity and related diseases. Methods and Findings We modelled the potential impact of a 20% sugary drinks duty on local authorities in England between 2010 and 2030. We synthesised data obtained from the British National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS), drinks manufacturers, Office for National Statistics, and from previous studies. This produced a modelled population of 41 million adults in 326 lower tier local authorities in England. This analysis suggests that a 20% SSB duty could result in approximately 2,400 fewer diabetes cases, 1,700 fewer stroke and coronary heart disease cases, 400 fewer cancer cases, and gain some 41,000 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per year across England. The duty might have the biggest impact in urban areas with young populations. Conclusions This study adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting health benefits for a duty on sugary drinks. It might also usefully provide results at an area level to inform local price interventions in England. PMID:26121677

The impact of large terrestrial carnivores on Pleistocene ecosystems

PubMed Central

Van Valkenburgh, Blaire; Ripple, William J.; Meloro, Carlo; Roth, V. Louise

2016-01-01

Large mammalian terrestrial herbivores, such as elephants, have dramatic effects on the ecosystems they inhabit and at high population densities their environmental impacts can be devastating. Pleistocene terrestrial ecosystems included a much greater diversity of megaherbivores (e.g., mammoths, mastodons, giant ground sloths) and thus a greater potential for widespread habitat degradation if population sizes were not limited. Nevertheless, based on modern observations, it is generally believed that populations of megaherbivores (>800 kg) are largely immune to the effects of predation and this perception has been extended into the Pleistocene. However, as shown here, the species richness of big carnivores was greater in the Pleistocene and many of them were significantly larger than their modern counterparts. Fossil evidence suggests that interspecific competition among carnivores was relatively intense and reveals that some individuals specialized in consuming megaherbivores. To estimate the potential impact of Pleistocene large carnivores, we use both historic and modern data on predator–prey body mass relationships to predict size ranges of their typical and maximum prey when hunting as individuals and in groups. These prey size ranges are then compared with estimates of juvenile and subadult proboscidean body sizes derived from extant elephant growth data. Young proboscideans at their most vulnerable age fall within the predicted prey size ranges of many of the Pleistocene carnivores. Predation on juveniles can have a greater impact on megaherbivores because of their long interbirth intervals, and consequently, we argue that Pleistocene carnivores had the capacity to, and likely did, limit megaherbivore population sizes. PMID:26504224

Primary care physician shortages could be eliminated through use of teams, nonphysicians, and electronic communication.

PubMed

Green, Linda V; Savin, Sergei; Lu, Yina

2013-01-01

Most existing estimates of the shortage of primary care physicians are based on simple ratios, such as one physician for every 2,500 patients. These estimates do not consider the impact of such ratios on patients' ability to get timely access to care. They also do not quantify the impact of changing patient demographics on the demand side and alternative methods of delivering care on the supply side. We used simulation methods to provide estimates of the number of primary care physicians needed, based on a comprehensive analysis considering access, demographics, and changing practice patterns. We show that the implementation of some increasingly popular operational changes in the ways clinicians deliver care-including the use of teams or "pods," better information technology and sharing of data, and the use of nonphysicians-have the potential to offset completely the increase in demand for physician services while improving access to care, thereby averting a primary care physician shortage.

Economic impact of fuel properties on turbine powered business aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, F. D.

1984-01-01

The principal objective was to estimate the economic impact on the turbine-powered business aviation fleet of potential changes in the composition and properties of aviation fuel. Secondary objectives include estimation of the sensitivity of costs to specific fuel properties, and an assessment of the directions in which further research should be directed. The study was based on the published characteristics of typical and specific modern aircraft in three classes; heavy jet, light jet, and turboprop. Missions of these aircraft were simulated by computer methods for each aircraft for several range and payload combinations, and assumed atmospheric temperatures ranging from nominal to extremely cold. Five fuels were selected for comparison with the reference fuel, nominal Jet A. An overview of the data, the mathematic models, the data reduction and analysis procedure, and the results of the study are given. The direct operating costs of the study fuels are compared with that of the reference fuel in the 1990 time-frame, and the anticipated fleet costs and fuel break-even costs are estimated.

Decision curve analysis as a framework to estimate the potential value of screening or other decision-making aids.

PubMed

Martin, Michael S; Wells, George A; Crocker, Anne G; Potter, Beth K; Colman, Ian

2018-03-01

There is an increasing debate about the impact of mental health screening. We illustrate the use of a decision making framework that can be applied when there is no sufficient data to support a traditional cost-benefit analysis. We conducted secondary analyses of data from 459 male prisoners who were screened upon intake. We compared the potential benefit of different approaches (screening, history taking, and universal interventions) to allocating treatment resources using decision curve analysis. Screening prisoners for distress at typical levels of sensitivity (75%) and specificity (71%) were estimated to provide the greatest net benefit if between 2 and 5 false positives per detected illness are tolerable. History taking and self-harm screening provide the largest net benefit when only 1 or 2 false positives per detected illness would be tolerable. The benefits of screening were less among those without a recent psychiatric history, ethnic minorities, and those with fewer psychosocial needs. Although screening has potential to increase detection of treatment, important subgroup differences exist. Greater consideration of responses to positive screens or alternatives to screening are needed to maximize the impact of efforts to improve detection and treatment of mental illness. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.

2014-12-01

South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

A Multiphase Design Strategy for Dealing with Participation Bias

PubMed Central

Haneuse, S.; Chen, J.

2012-01-01

Summary A recently funded study of the impact of oral contraceptive use on the risk of bone fracture employed the randomized recruitment scheme of Weinberg and Wacholder (1990, Biometrics 46, 963–975). One potential complication in the bone fracture study is the potential for differential response rates between cases and controls; participation rates in previous, related studies have been around 70%. Although data from randomized recruitment schemes may be analyzed within the two-phase study framework, ignoring potential differential participation may lead to biased estimates of association. To overcome this, we build on the two-phase framework and propose an extension by introducing an additional stage of data collection aimed specifically at addressing potential differential participation. Four estimators that correct for both sampling and participation bias are proposed; two are general purpose and two are for the special case where covariates underlying the participation mechanism are discrete. Because the fracture study is ongoing, we illustrate the methods using infant mortality data from North Carolina. PMID:20377576

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

2005-01-01

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

Secondary analysis of merged American Hospital Association data and U.S. Census data: beginning to understand the supply-demand chain in pediatric inpatient care.

PubMed

Lacey, Susan R; Kilgore, Meredith; Yun, Huifeng; Hughes, Ronda; Allison, Jeroan; Cox, Karen S

2008-06-01

Much attention has been focused on how the nursing shortage will impact the growing number of aging Americans. This study was conducted as a first step in understanding nursing supply relative to potential pediatric demand using merged data from the American Hospital Association's annual survey and Census data by state from the year 2000. Findings indicate that there is tremendous variability among reporting states related to estimated pediatric nurses (registered nurse full-time equivalents), potential pediatric demand (persons from birth to 18 years), and allocated pediatric beds. Future research will examine how this supply-demand chain impacts clinical and cost outcomes for pediatric patients.

What is the potential of cropland albedo management in the fight against global warming? A case study based on the use of cover crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrer, Dominique; Pique, Gaétan; Ferlicoq, Morgan; Ceamanos, Xavier; Ceschia, Eric

2018-04-01

Land cover management in agricultural areas is a powerful tool that could play a role in the mitigation of climate change and the counterbalance of global warming. First, we attempted to quantify the radiative forcing that would increase the surface albedo of croplands in Europe following the inclusion of cover crops during the fallow period. This is possible since the albedo of bare soil in many areas of Europe is lower than the albedo of vegetation. By using satellite data, we demonstrated that the introduction of cover crops into the crop rotation during the fallow period would increase the albedo over 4.17% of Europe’s surface. According to our study, the effect resulting from this increase in the albedo of the croplands would be equivalent to a mitigation of 3.16 MtCO2-eq.year‑1 over a 100 year time horizon. This is equivalent to a mitigation potential per surface unit (m2) of introduced cover crop over Europe of 15.91 gCO2-eq.year‑1.m‑2. This value, obtained at the European scale, is consistent with previous estimates. We show that this mitigation potential could be increased by 27% if the cover crop is maintained for a longer period than 3 months and reduced by 28% in the case of no irrigation. In the second part of this work, based on recent studies estimating the impact of cover crops on soil carbon sequestration and the use of fertilizer, we added the albedo effect to those estimates, and we argued that, by considering areas favourable to their introduction, cover crops in Europe could mitigate human-induced agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by up to 7% per year, using 2011 as a reference. The impact of the albedo change per year would be between 10% and 13% of this total impact. The countries showing the greatest mitigation potentials are France, Bulgaria, Romania, and Germany.

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and the Potential Climate Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, Hok K.; Sridhar, Banavar; Grabbe, Shon; Chen, Neil

2011-01-01

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flight plan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Potential Climate Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Chen, Neil; Ng, Hok

2011-01-01

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flightplan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Cost-effectiveness of everolimus for second-line treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma in Serbia.

PubMed

Mihajlović, Jovan; Pechlivanoglou, Petros; Sabo, Ana; Tomić, Zdenko; Postma, Maarten J

2013-12-01

New targeted therapeutics for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) enable an increment in progression-free survival (PFS) ranging from 2 to 6 months. Compared with best supportive care, everolimus demonstrated an additional PFS of 3 months in patients with mRCC whose disease had progressed on sunitinib and/or sorafenib. The only targeted therapy for mRCC currently reimbursed in Serbia is sunitinib. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness and the budget impact of the introduction of everolimus in Serbia in comparison to best supportive care, for mRCC patients refractory to sunitinib. A Markov model was designed corresponding with Serbian treatment protocols. A health care payer perspective was taken, including direct costs only. Treated and untreated cohorts were followed up over 18 cycles, each cycle lasting 8 weeks, which covered the lifetime horizon of mRCC patients refractory to the first-line treatment. Annual discounted rates of 1.5% for effectiveness and 3% for costs were applied. Transitions between health states were modeled by time-dependent probabilities extracted from published Kaplan-Meier curves of PFS and overall survival (OS). Utility values were obtained from the appraisals of other mRCC treatments. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were done to test the robustness and uncertainty of the base-case estimate. Lastly, the potential impacts of everolimus on the overall health care expenditures on annual and 4-year bases were estimated in the budget-impact analysis. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for everolimus was estimated at €86,978 per quality-adjusted life-year. Sensitivity analysis identified the hazard multiplier, a statistical approximator of OS gain, as the main driver of everolimus cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed a wide 95% CI around the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimate (€32,594-€425,258 per quality-adjusted life-year). Finally, an average annual budgetary impact of everolimus in first 4 years after its potential reimbursement would be around €270,000, contributing to <1% of the total budget in Serbian oncology. Everolimus as a second-line treatment of mRCC is not likely to be a cost-effective option under the present conditions in Serbia, with a relatively limited impact on its budget in oncology. A major constraint on the estimation of the cost-effectiveness of everolimus relates to the uncertainty around the everolimus effect on extending OS. However, prior to a final decision on the acceptance/rejection of everolimus, reassessment of the whole therapeutic group might be needed to construct an economically rational treatment strategy within the mRCC field. © 2013 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

The potential radiological impact from a Brazilian phosphate facility.

PubMed

Glória dos Reis, Rócio; da Costa Lauria, Dejanira

2014-10-01

In the semiarid region of Brazil, a facility for the production of phosphoric acid for fertilizer is in the last stages of the planning phase. The raw feedstock of Santa Quiteria has a very high level of uranium associated with the phosphate in form of apatite. The reaction by which phosphoric acid is produced generates phosphogypsum (PG) as a by-product. The ratio of phosphogypsum to phosphoric acid is approximately 5 to 1. After all of the phosphate has been extracted and processed, it is expected that some 37 million tons of phosphogypsum will be produced, containing 13 Bq/g of (226)Ra and 11 Bq/g of (210)Pb. To assess the potential impact of this PG stack on the surrounding inhabitants, a generic impact assessment was performed using a modeling approach. We estimated the amount and shape of the residue stack and used computational codes for assessing the radiological impact in a prospective risk assessment. A hypothetical farmer scenario was used to calculate two potential doses, one near the site boundary and another directly over the stack piles after the project is shut down. Using a conservative approach, the potential public dose was estimated to be 2.8 mSv/y. This study identified the rainfall erosion index, dissolution rate of PG, radionuclide distribution coefficients and fish consumption rate as parameters where improved information could enhance the quality of the dose assessment. The disposal and shape of the stack is of major concern, since the PG erosion might be the main pathway for the environmental contamination; therefore, studies should be carried out to determine a suitable shape and disposal of the stack. Furthermore, containment barriers should be evaluated for their potential to reduce or avoid environmental contamination by runoff. In addition, the onsite public dose underscores the importance of a planning for remediation of the area after the plant is shut down to assure that neither the public nor the environmental health will be affected by the presence of the PG stack. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technology assessment of solar energy systems: Residential use of fuelwood in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petty, P. N.; Hopp, W. J.

1981-08-01

The evidence of impacts associated with the use of fuelwood for residential space heating in the region including the states of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho is identified and evaluated. The use of fuelwood for space heating was projected into the future, and then the potential size of the impacts that had been identified and estimated was evaluated. These projections are provided in five year increments beginning in 1980 and proceeding to the year 2000. Policy options are suggested which may mitigate the adverse impacts identified, while preserving the positive effect of reducing residential demand for energy derived from nonrenewable sources.

Impact of Wind Development on County-Level Income and Employment: A Review of Methods and an Empirical Analysis (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2012-09-01

To gain an understanding of the long-term county-level impacts from a large sample of wind power projects and to understand the potential significance of methodological criticisms, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and NREL recently joined efforts to complete a first-of-its-kind study that quantifies the annual impact on county-level personal income resulting from wind power installations in nearly 130 counties across 12 states. The results of this study, as well as a comparison with the prior county-level estimates generated from input-output models, are summarized here.

PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.

2010-01-01

PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.

Psychometric considerations in the measurement of event-related brain potentials: Guidelines for measurement and reporting.

PubMed

Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

2017-01-01

Failing to consider psychometric issues related to reliability and validity, differential deficits, and statistical power potentially undermines the conclusions of a study. In research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs), numerous contextual factors (population sampled, task, data recording, analysis pipeline, etc.) can impact the reliability of ERP scores. The present review considers the contextual factors that influence ERP score reliability and the downstream effects that reliability has on statistical analyses. Given the context-dependent nature of ERPs, it is recommended that ERP score reliability be formally assessed on a study-by-study basis. Recommended guidelines for ERP studies include 1) reporting the threshold of acceptable reliability and reliability estimates for observed scores, 2) specifying the approach used to estimate reliability, and 3) justifying how trial-count minima were chosen. A reliability threshold for internal consistency of at least 0.70 is recommended, and a threshold of 0.80 is preferred. The review also advocates the use of generalizability theory for estimating score dependability (the generalizability theory analog to reliability) as an improvement on classical test theory reliability estimates, suggesting that the latter is less well suited to ERP research. To facilitate the calculation and reporting of dependability estimates, an open-source Matlab program, the ERP Reliability Analysis Toolbox, is presented. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implications of heterogeneous impacts of protected areas on deforestation and poverty

PubMed Central

Hanauer, Merlin M.; Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo

2015-01-01

Protected areas are a popular policy instrument in the global fight against loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the effectiveness of protected areas in preventing deforestation, and their impacts on poverty, are not well understood. Recent studies have found that Bolivia's protected-area system, on average, reduced deforestation and poverty. We implement several non-parametric and semi-parametric econometric estimators to characterize the heterogeneity in Bolivia's protected-area impacts on joint deforestation and poverty outcomes across a number of socioeconomic and biophysical moderators. Like previous studies from Costa Rica and Thailand, we find that Bolivia's protected areas are not associated with poverty traps. Our results also indicate that protection did not have a differential impact on indigenous populations. However, results from new multidimensional non-parametric estimators provide evidence that the biophysical characteristics associated with the greatest avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the potential for poverty exacerbation from protection. We demonstrate that these results would not be identified using the methods implemented in previous studies. Thus, this study provides valuable practical information on the impacts of Bolivia's protected areas for conservation practitioners and demonstrates methods that are likely to be valuable to researchers interested in better understanding the heterogeneity in conservation impacts. PMID:26460125

Implications of heterogeneous impacts of protected areas on deforestation and poverty.

PubMed

Hanauer, Merlin M; Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo

2015-11-05

Protected areas are a popular policy instrument in the global fight against loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the effectiveness of protected areas in preventing deforestation, and their impacts on poverty, are not well understood. Recent studies have found that Bolivia's protected-area system, on average, reduced deforestation and poverty. We implement several non-parametric and semi-parametric econometric estimators to characterize the heterogeneity in Bolivia's protected-area impacts on joint deforestation and poverty outcomes across a number of socioeconomic and biophysical moderators. Like previous studies from Costa Rica and Thailand, we find that Bolivia's protected areas are not associated with poverty traps. Our results also indicate that protection did not have a differential impact on indigenous populations. However, results from new multidimensional non-parametric estimators provide evidence that the biophysical characteristics associated with the greatest avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the potential for poverty exacerbation from protection. We demonstrate that these results would not be identified using the methods implemented in previous studies. Thus, this study provides valuable practical information on the impacts of Bolivia's protected areas for conservation practitioners and demonstrates methods that are likely to be valuable to researchers interested in better understanding the heterogeneity in conservation impacts. © 2015 The Author(s).

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-09-01

Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-11-01

Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential for Integrating Diffusion of Innovation Principles into Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies.

PubMed

Sharp, Benjamin E; Miller, Shelie A

2016-03-15

Life cycle assessment (LCA) measures cradle-to-grave environmental impacts of a product. To assess impacts of an emerging technology, LCA should be coupled with additional methods that estimate how that technology might be deployed. The extent and manner that an emerging technology diffuses throughout a region shapes the magnitude and type of environmental impacts. Diffusion of innovation is an established field of research that analyzes the adoption of new innovations, and its principles can be used to construct scenario models that enhance LCA of emerging technologies. Integrating diffusion modeling techniques with an LCA of emerging technology can provide estimates for the extent of market penetration, the displacement of existing systems, and the rate of adoption. Two general perspectives of application are macro-level diffusion models that use a function of time to represent adoption, and microlevel diffusion models that simulate adoption through interactions of individuals. Incorporating diffusion of innovation concepts complement existing methods within LCA to inform proactive environmental management of emerging technologies.

Nut crop yield records show that budbreak-based chilling requirements may not reflect yield decline chill thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Katherine S.; Dose, Volker; Da Silva, David; Brown, Patrick H.; DeJong, Theodore M.

2015-06-01

Warming winters due to climate change may critically affect temperate tree species. Insufficiently cold winters are thought to result in fewer viable flower buds and the subsequent development of fewer fruits or nuts, decreasing the yield of an orchard or fecundity of a species. The best existing approximation for a threshold of sufficient cold accumulation, the "chilling requirement" of a species or variety, has been quantified by manipulating or modeling the conditions that result in dormant bud breaking. However, the physiological processes that affect budbreak are not the same as those that determine yield. This study sought to test whether budbreak-based chilling thresholds can reasonably approximate the thresholds that affect yield, particularly regarding the potential impacts of climate change on temperate tree crop yields. County-wide yield records for almond ( Prunus dulcis), pistachio ( Pistacia vera), and walnut ( Juglans regia) in the Central Valley of California were compared with 50 years of weather records. Bayesian nonparametric function estimation was used to model yield potentials at varying amounts of chill accumulation. In almonds, average yields occurred when chill accumulation was close to the budbreak-based chilling requirement. However, in the other two crops, pistachios and walnuts, the best previous estimate of the budbreak-based chilling requirements was 19-32 % higher than the chilling accumulations associated with average or above average yields. This research indicates that physiological processes beyond requirements for budbreak should be considered when estimating chill accumulation thresholds of yield decline and potential impacts of climate change.

Modelling climate change impacts on tourism demand: A comparative study from Sardinia (Italy) and Cap Bon (Tunisia).

PubMed

Köberl, Judith; Prettenthaler, Franz; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

Tourism represents an important source of income and employment in many Mediterranean regions, including the island of Sardinia (Italy) and the Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia). Climate change may however impact tourism in both regions, for example, by altering the regions' climatic suitability for common tourism types or affecting water availability. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the case study regions of Sardinia and Cap Bon. Direct impacts are studied in a quantitative way by applying a range of climate scenario data on the empirically estimated relationship between climatic conditions and tourism demand, using two different approaches. Results indicate a potential for climate-induced tourism revenue gains especially in the shoulder seasons during spring and autumn, but also a threat of climate-induced revenue losses in the summer months due to increased heat stress. Annual direct net impacts are nevertheless suggested to be (slightly) positive in both case study regions. Significant climate-induced reductions in total available water may however somewhat counteract the positive direct impacts of climate change by putting additional water costs on the tourism industry. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Historical reconstruction of wastewater and land use impacts to groundwater used for public drinking water: exposure assessment using chemical data and GIS.

PubMed

Swartz, Christopher H; Rudel, Ruthann A; Kachajian, Jennifer R; Brody, Julia G

2003-09-01

Land use in geographic areas that replenish groundwater and surface water resources is increasingly recognized as an important factor affecting drinking water quality. Efforts to understand the implications for health, particularly outcomes with long latency or critical exposure windows, have been hampered by lack of historical exposure data for unregulated pollutants. This limitation has hindered studies of the possible links between breast cancer risk and drinking water impacted by endocrine disrupting compounds and mammary carcinogens, for example. This paper describes a methodology to assess potential historical exposure to a broad range of chemicals associated with wastewater and land use impacts to 132 groundwater wells and one surface water body supplying drinking water to 18 public distribution systems on Cape Cod, MA. We calculated annual measures of impact to each distribution system and used the measures as exposure estimates for the residential addresses of control women in the Cape Cod Breast Cancer and Environment Study (Cape Cod Study). Impact was assessed using (1) historical chemical measurements of nitrate at the water supply sources (performed as required by the Safe Water Drinking Act) and (2) a geographic information system analysis of land use within the zones of contribution (ZOCs) delineated for each well in a state-mandated wellhead protection program. The period for which these impact estimates were developed (1972-1995) was constrained by the availability of chemical measurements and land use data and consideration of time required for groundwater transport of contaminants to the water supply wells. Trends in these estimates for Cape Cod suggest increasing impact to drinking water quality for land use over the study period. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect on the distribution of controls' cumulative exposure estimates from (1) reducing the area of the ZOCs to reflect typical well operating conditions rather than extreme pumping conditions used for the regulatory ZOCs, (2) assuming residences received their drinking water entirely from the closest well or cluster of wells rather than a volume-weighted annual district-wide average, and (3) changing the travel time considered for contaminants to reach wells from land use sources. We found that the rank and distribution of controls' cumulative exposure estimates were affected most by the assumption concerning district mixing; in particular, assignment of exposure estimates based on impact values for the closest well(s) consistently produced a larger number of unexposed controls than when a district-wide average impact value was used. As expected, the results suggest that adequate characterization of water quality heterogeneity within water supplies is an important component of exposure assessment methodologies in health studies investigating impacted drinking water.

Estimate of potential benefit for Europe of fitting Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) systems for pedestrian protection to passenger cars.

PubMed

Edwards, Mervyn; Nathanson, Andrew; Wisch, Marcus

2014-01-01

The objective of the current study was to estimate the benefit for Europe of fitting precrash braking systems to cars that detect pedestrians and autonomously brake the car to prevent or lower the speed of the impact with the pedestrian. The analysis was divided into 2 main parts: (1) Develop and apply methodology to estimate benefit for Great Britain and Germany; (2) scale Great Britain and German results to give an indicative estimate for Europe (EU27). The calculation methodology developed to estimate the benefit was based on 2 main steps: 1. Calculate the change in the impact speed distribution curve for pedestrian casualties hit by the fronts of cars assuming pedestrian autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system fitment. 2. From this, calculate the change in the number of fatally, seriously, and slightly injured casualties by using the relationship between risk of injury and the casualty impact speed distribution to sum the resulting risks for each individual casualty. The methodology was applied to Great Britain and German data for 3 types of pedestrian AEB systems representative of (1) currently available systems; (2) future systems with improved performance, which are expected to be available in the next 2-3 years; and (3) reference limit system, which has the best performance currently thought to be technically feasible. Nominal benefits estimated for Great Britain ranged from £119 million to £385 million annually and for Germany from €63 million to €216 million annually depending on the type of AEB system assumed fitted. Sensitivity calculations showed that the benefit estimated could vary from about half to twice the nominal estimate, depending on factors such as whether or not the system would function at night and the road friction assumed. Based on scaling of estimates made for Great Britain and Germany, the nominal benefit of implementing pedestrian AEB systems on all cars in Europe was estimated to range from about €1 billion per year for current generation AEB systems to about €3.5 billion for a reference limit system (i.e., best performance thought technically feasible at present). Dividing these values by the number of new passenger cars registered in Europe per year gives an indication that the cost of a system per car should be less than ∼€80 to ∼€280 for it to be cost effective. The potential benefit of fitting AEB systems to cars in Europe for pedestrian protection has been estimated and the results interpreted to indicate the upper limit of cost for a system to allow it to be cost effective.

The need for health impact assessment in China: Potential benefits for public health and steps forward

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu Liming, E-mail: lmwu@scdc.sh.c; Center for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, Nathan 4111; Rutherford, Shannon

2011-07-15

Health impact assessment (HIA) is a useful tool to predict and estimate the potential health impact associated with programs, projects, and policies by comprehensively identifying relevant health determinants and their consequences. China is undergoing massive and rapid socio-economic changes leading to environment and population health challenges such as a large increase in non-communicable diseases, the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases, new health risks associated with environmental pollutants and escalating health inequality. These health issues are affected by multiple determinants which can be influenced by planned policies, programs, and projects. This paper discusses the needs for health impact assessment inmore » China in order to minimize the negative health consequences from projects, programs and policies associated with rapid social and economic development. It first describes the scope of China's current impact assessment system and points out its inadequacy in meeting the requirements of population health protection and promotion. It then analyses the potential use of HIA and why China needs to develop and apply HIA as a tool to identify potential health impacts of proposed programs, projects and policies so as to influence decision-making early in the planning process. Thus, the paper recommends the development of HIA as a useful tool in China to enhance decision-making for the protection and promotion of population health. For this to happen, the paper outlines steps necessary for the establishment and successful implementation of HIA in China: beginning with the establishment of a HIA framework, followed by workforce capacity building, methodology design, and intersectoral collaboration and stakeholder engagement.« less

The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background For accurate estimation of the future burden of communicable diseases, the dynamics of the population at risk – namely population growth and population ageing – need to be taken into account. Accurate burden estimates are necessary for informing policy-makers regarding the planning of vaccination and other control, intervention, and prevention measures. Our aim was to qualitatively explore the impact of population ageing on the estimated future burden of seasonal influenza and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the Netherlands, in the period 2000–2030. Methods Population-level disease burden was quantified using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure applied to all health outcomes following acute infection. We used national notification data, pre-defined disease progression models, and a simple model of demographic dynamics to investigate the impact of population ageing on the burden of seasonal influenza and HBV. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore the potential impact of intervention-associated changes in incidence rates. Results Including population dynamics resulted in increasing burden over the study period for influenza, whereas a relatively stable future burden was predicted for HBV. For influenza, the increase in DALYs was localised within YLL for the oldest age-groups (55 and older), and for HBV the effect of longer life expectancy in the future was offset by a reduction in incidence in the age-groups most at risk of infection. For both infections, the predicted disease burden was greater than if a static demography was assumed: 1.0 (in 2000) to 2.3-fold (in 2030) higher DALYs for influenza; 1.3 (in 2000) to 1.5-fold (in 2030) higher for HBV. Conclusions There are clear, but diverging effects of an ageing population on the estimated disease burden of influenza and HBV in the Netherlands. Replacing static assumptions with a dynamic demographic approach appears essential for deriving realistic burden estimates for informing health policy. PMID:23217094

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Klonner, Günther; Rammer, Werner; Essl, Franz; Moreno, Adam; Neumann, Mathias; Dullinger, Stefan

2018-04-24

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

Schistosomiasis: Geospatial Surveillance and Response Systems in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, John; Bergquist, Robert; Rinaldi, Laura; Xiao-nong, Zhou

2016-10-01

Geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) from Earth-observing satellites offer opportunities for rapid assessment of areas endemic for vector-borne diseases including estimates of populations at risk and guidance to intervention strategies. This presentation deals with GIS and RS applications for the control of schistosomiasis in China and the Philippines. It includes large-scale risk mapping including identification of suitable habitats for Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum. Predictions of infection risk are discussed with reference to ecological transformations and the potential impact of climate change and the potential for long-term temperature increases in the North as well as the impact on rivers, lakes and water resource developments. Potential integration of geospatial mapping and modeling in schistosomiasis surveillance and response systems in Asia within Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) guidelines in the health societal benefit area is discussed.

Dangerous Climate Velocities from Geoengineering Termination: Potential Biodiversity Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trisos, C.; Gurevitch, J.; Zambri, B.; Xia, L.; Amatulli, G.; Robock, A.

2016-12-01

Geoengineering has been suggested as a potential societal response to the impacts of ongoing global warming. If ongoing mitigation and adaptation measures do not prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change, it is important to study whether solar radiation management would make the world less dangerous. While impacts of albedo modification on temperature, precipitation, and agriculture have been studied before, here for the first time we investigate its potential ecological impacts. We estimate the speeds marine and terrestrial ecosystems will need to move to remain in their current climate conditions (i.e., climate velocities) in response to the implementation and subsequent termination of geoengineering. We take advantage of climate model simulations conducted using the G4 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which increased radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 scenario is balanced by a stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by an injection of 5 Tg of SO2 per year into the lower stratosphere for 50 years, and then stopped. The termination of geoengineering is projected to produce a very rapid warming of the climate, resulting in climate velocities much faster than those that will be produced from anthropogenic global warming. Should ongoing geoengineering be terminated abruptly due to society losing the means or will to continue, the resulting ecological impacts, as measured by climate velocities, could be severe for many terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots. Thus, the implementation of solar geoengineering represents a potential danger not just to humans, but also to biodiversity globally.

Towards improved socio-economic assessments of ocean acidification's impacts.

PubMed

Hilmi, Nathalie; Allemand, Denis; Dupont, Sam; Safa, Alain; Haraldsson, Gunnar; Nunes, Paulo A L D; Moore, Chris; Hattam, Caroline; Reynaud, Stéphanie; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Fine, Maoz; Turley, Carol; Jeffree, Ross; Orr, James; Munday, Philip L; Cooley, Sarah R

2013-01-01

Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a component of global change that could have a wide range of impacts on marine organisms, the ecosystems they live in, and the goods and services they provide humankind. Assessment of these potential socio-economic impacts requires integrated efforts between biologists, chemists, oceanographers, economists and social scientists. But because ocean acidification is a new research area, significant knowledge gaps are preventing economists from estimating its welfare impacts. For instance, economic data on the impact of ocean acidification on significant markets such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism are very limited (if not non-existent), and non-market valuation studies on this topic are not yet available. Our paper summarizes the current understanding of future OA impacts and sets out what further information is required for economists to assess socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification. Our aim is to provide clear directions for multidisciplinary collaborative research.

On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science

PubMed Central

Penner, Orion; Pan, Raj K.; Petersen, Alexander M.; Kaski, Kimmo; Fortunato, Santo

2013-01-01

Correctly assessing a scientist's past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate's future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist's future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their “predictive power”. Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists' career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions. PMID:24165898

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China.

PubMed

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-12-10

Background : Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods : We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an "optimum temperature" that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results : The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%-13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%-12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%-2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%-24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%-16.01%); Conclusions : In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China

PubMed Central

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-01-01

Background: Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods: We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an “optimum temperature” that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results: The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%–13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%–12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%–2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%–24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%–16.01%); Conclusions: In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios. PMID:27973401

Solar power potential of North-east India - A case study for Silchar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maisanam, Anil; Biswas, Agnimitra; Sharma, Kaushal Kumar

2018-04-01

High energy demand has necessitated search for all possible sources of energy. Conventional energy source is having negative impact on our environment, therefore our attention is focused on renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro, which are considered to be clean and sustainable energy sources. India has set an ambitious target of producing 175 GW of energy using solar energy. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the solar potential to observe the feasibility of such project. North-east India is an underdeveloped region of India and due to its geographical location and difficult terrain, many regions are still not electrified. Such regions can be electrified by installing renewable energy based power plants, which can also generate number of jobs hence improving the quality of life and economic condition of the region. The objective of this paper is to estimate the solar power potential of Silchar (Assam, India) and perform a feasibility study for installation of solar-based power plant in the region. In this paper, solar radiation on tilted surface is estimated by using an anisotropic sky model. This radiation data has been used to estimate the PV power output. Finally, feasibility of the PV plant has been verified by mapping with a practical load demand.

The Potential Impact of Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Parameters on Ground-Level PM2.5 Mass and Composition

PubMed Central

Chang, Howard H.; Wang, Yujie; Hu, Xuefei; Lyapustin, Alexei

2017-01-01

Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical properties have been extensively used to estimate ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in support of air pollution health effects research and air quality assessment at the urban to global scales. However, a large proportion, ~70%, of satellite observations of aerosols are missing as a result of cloud-cover, surface brightness, and snow-cover. The resulting PM2.5 estimates could therefore be biased due to this non-random data missingness. Cloud-cover in particular has the potential to impact ground-level PM2.5 concentrations through complex chemical and physical processes. We developed a series of statistical models using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) aerosol product at 1 km resolution with information from the MODIS cloud product and meteorological information to investigate the extent to which cloud parameters and associated meteorological conditions impact ground-level aerosols at two urban sites in the US: Atlanta and San Francisco. We find that changes in temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, planetary boundary layer height, convective available potential energy, precipitation, cloud effective radius, cloud optical depth, and cloud emissivity are associated with changes in PM2.5 concentration and composition, and the changes differ by overpass time and cloud phase as well as between the San Francisco and Atlanta sites. A case-study at the San Francisco site confirmed that accounting for cloud-cover and associated meteorological conditions could substantially alter the spatial distribution of monthly ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. PMID:29057838

The Potential Impact of Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Parameters on Ground-Level PM2.5 Mass and Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belle, Jessica H.; Chang, Howard H.; Wang, Yujie; Hu, Xuefei; Lyapustin, Alexei; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical properties have been extensively used to estimate ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in support of air pollution health effects research and air quality assessment at the urban to global scales. However, a large proportion, approximately 70%, of satellite observations of aerosols are missing as a result of cloud-cover, surface brightness, and snow-cover. The resulting PM2.5 estimates could therefore be biased due to this non-random data missingness. Cloud-cover in particular has the potential to impact ground-level PM2.5 concentrations through complex chemical and physical processes. We developed a series of statistical models using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) aerosol product at 1 km resolution with information from the MODIS cloud product and meteorological information to investigate the extent to which cloud parameters and associated meteorological conditions impact ground-level aerosols at two urban sites in the US: Atlanta and San Francisco. We find that changes in temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, planetary boundary layer height, convective available potential energy, precipitation, cloud effective radius, cloud optical depth, and cloud emissivity are associated with changes in PM2.5 concentration and composition, and the changes differ by overpass time and cloud phase as well as between the San Francisco and Atlanta sites. A case-study at the San Francisco site confirmed that accounting for cloud-cover and associated meteorological conditions could substantially alter the spatial distribution of monthly ground-level PM2.5 concentrations.

The Potential Impact of Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Parameters on Ground-Level PM2.5 Mass and Composition.

PubMed

Belle, Jessica H; Chang, Howard H; Wang, Yujie; Hu, Xuefei; Lyapustin, Alexei; Liu, Yang

2017-10-18

Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical properties have been extensively used to estimate ground-level fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in support of air pollution health effects research and air quality assessment at the urban to global scales. However, a large proportion, ~70%, of satellite observations of aerosols are missing as a result of cloud-cover, surface brightness, and snow-cover. The resulting PM 2.5 estimates could therefore be biased due to this non-random data missingness. Cloud-cover in particular has the potential to impact ground-level PM 2.5 concentrations through complex chemical and physical processes. We developed a series of statistical models using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) aerosol product at 1 km resolution with information from the MODIS cloud product and meteorological information to investigate the extent to which cloud parameters and associated meteorological conditions impact ground-level aerosols at two urban sites in the US: Atlanta and San Francisco. We find that changes in temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, planetary boundary layer height, convective available potential energy, precipitation, cloud effective radius, cloud optical depth, and cloud emissivity are associated with changes in PM 2.5 concentration and composition, and the changes differ by overpass time and cloud phase as well as between the San Francisco and Atlanta sites. A case-study at the San Francisco site confirmed that accounting for cloud-cover and associated meteorological conditions could substantially alter the spatial distribution of monthly ground-level PM 2.5 concentrations.

Mapping Potential Environmental Impacts from Tourists Using Data from Social Media: A Case Study in the Westfjords of Iceland.

PubMed

Hale, Brack W

2018-05-07

With tourism increasing in remote regions, it is important to be able to estimate potential environmental impacts from the tourists in order to plan and manage natural areas. This study combines measures of ecological sensitivity with data from publicly available geotagged photographs posted on the social media site Flickr to assess the vulnerability of the locations frequented by foreign tourists in the Westfjords region of Iceland between 2014 and 2016. The results suggest that tourists cluster primarily around six hotspots that represented some of the major known tourist destinations of the region. Although tourists generally frequented areas with lower ecological sensitivity and rarely went far beyond the main roads, one of the hotspots was in an area of higher ecological sensitivity. Further, tourists also appeared to have higher intensity stays when they entered areas of higher ecological sensitivity. Overall, these findings highlight the usefulness of combining data from social media in assessing potential environmental impacts of tourism. However, natural resource managers should be aware of limitations in the use of such data.

Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

2016-12-01

Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012. Patients were included in the final analytic file and were indexed based on (1) the service date of the first claim within the selection window (December 28, 2010-July 11, 2011) with a diagnosis of NVAF, or (2) the service date of the second claim for an NVAF medication of interest during the same selection window. The model estimates the current trends in national benchmark data for a hypothetical health plan with 1 million covered lives. The annual total direct healthcare costs (allowable and patient out-of-pocket costs) of managing patients with NVAF in this hypothetical plan are estimated at $184,981,245 ($25,754 per patient, for 7183 patients). A potential 25% improvement from the base-case disease burden and disease management could translate into TCoC savings from reducing the excess costs related to hypertension (-5.3%) and supporting the use of an appropriate antithrombotic treatment that prevents ischemic stroke (-0.7%) and reduces bleeding events (-0.1%). The use of the TCoC estimator supports population health management by providing real-world evidence benchmark data on NVAF disease burden and by quantifying the potential value of disease-management activities in shifting cost trends.

Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P.; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

2016-01-01

Background Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. Objective To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Methods Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. Results All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012. Patients were included in the final analytic file and were indexed based on (1) the service date of the first claim within the selection window (December 28, 2010-July 11, 2011) with a diagnosis of NVAF, or (2) the service date of the second claim for an NVAF medication of interest during the same selection window. The model estimates the current trends in national benchmark data for a hypothetical health plan with 1 million covered lives. The annual total direct healthcare costs (allowable and patient out-of-pocket costs) of managing patients with NVAF in this hypothetical plan are estimated at $184,981,245 ($25,754 per patient, for 7183 patients). A potential 25% improvement from the base-case disease burden and disease management could translate into TCoC savings from reducing the excess costs related to hypertension (−5.3%) and supporting the use of an appropriate antithrombotic treatment that prevents ischemic stroke (−0.7%) and reduces bleeding events (−0.1%). Conclusions The use of the TCoC estimator supports population health management by providing real-world evidence benchmark data on NVAF disease burden and by quantifying the potential value of disease-management activities in shifting cost trends. PMID:28465775

Random Forests (RFs) for Estimation, Uncertainty Prediction and Interpretation of Monthly Solar Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assouline, Dan; Mohajeri, Nahid; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis

2017-04-01

Solar energy is clean, widely available, and arguably the most promising renewable energy resource. Taking full advantage of solar power, however, requires a deep understanding of its patterns and dependencies in space and time. The recent advances in Machine Learning brought powerful algorithms to estimate the spatio-temporal variations of solar irradiance (the power per unit area received from the Sun, W/m2), using local weather and terrain information. Such algorithms include Deep Learning (e.g. Artificial Neural Networks), or kernel methods (e.g. Support Vector Machines). However, most of these methods have some disadvantages, as they: (i) are complex to tune, (ii) are mainly used as a black box and offering no interpretation on the variables contributions, (iii) often do not provide uncertainty predictions (Assouline et al., 2016). To provide a reasonable solar mapping with good accuracy, these gaps would ideally need to be filled. We present here simple steps using one ensemble learning algorithm namely, Random Forests (Breiman, 2001) to (i) estimate monthly solar potential with good accuracy, (ii) provide information on the contribution of each feature in the estimation, and (iii) offer prediction intervals for each point estimate. We have selected Switzerland as an example. Using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) along with monthly solar irradiance time series and weather data, we build monthly solar maps for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), and Extraterrestrial Irradiance (EI). The weather data include monthly values for temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and cloud cover. In order to explain the impact of each feature on the solar irradiance of each point estimate, we extend the contribution method (Kuz'min et al., 2011) to a regression setting. Contribution maps for all features can then be computed for each solar map. This provides precious information on the spatial variation of the features impact all across Switzerland maps. Finally, as RFs are based on bootstrap samples of the training data, they can produce prediction intervals by looking at the trees estimates distribution, instead of taking the mean estimate. To do so, a simple idea is to grow all trees fully so that each leaf has exactly one value, that is, a training sample value. Then, for each point estimate, we compute percentiles of the trees estimates data to build a prediction interval. Two issues arise from this process: (i) growing the trees fully is not always possible, and (ii) there is a risk of over-fitting. We show how to solve them. These steps can be used for any type of environmental mapping so as to extract useful information on uncertainty and feature impact interpretation. References -Assouline, D., Mohajeri, N., & Scartezzini, J. L. (2017). Quantifying rooftop photovoltaic solar energy potential: A machine learning approach. Solar Energy, 141, 278-296. -Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine learning, 45(1), 5-32. -Kuz'min, V. E., Polishchuk, P. G., Artemenko, A. G., & Andronati, S. A. (2011). Interpretation of QSAR models based on random forest methods. Molecular Informatics, 30(6-7), 593-603.

Life cycle assessment of metals: a scientific synthesis.

PubMed

Nuss, Philip; Eckelman, Matthew J

2014-01-01

We have assembled extensive information on the cradle-to-gate environmental burdens of 63 metals in their major use forms, and illustrated the interconnectedness of metal production systems. Related cumulative energy use, global warming potential, human health implications and ecosystem damage are estimated by metal life cycle stage (i.e., mining, purification, and refining). For some elements, these are the first life cycle estimates of environmental impacts reported in the literature. We show that, if compared on a per kilogram basis, the platinum group metals and gold display the highest environmental burdens, while many of the major industrial metals (e.g., iron, manganese, titanium) are found at the lower end of the environmental impacts scale. If compared on the basis of their global annual production in 2008, iron and aluminum display the largest impacts, and thallium and tellurium the lowest. With the exception of a few metals, environmental impacts of the majority of elements are dominated by the purification and refining stages in which metals are transformed from a concentrate into their metallic form. Out of the 63 metals investigated, 42 metals are obtained as co-products in multi output processes. We test the sensitivity of varying allocation rationales, in which the environmental burden are allocated to the various metal and mineral products, on the overall results. Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to further investigate the stability of our results. This analysis is the most comprehensive life cycle comparison of metals to date and allows for the first time a complete bottom-up estimate of life cycle impacts of the metals and mining sector globally. We estimate global direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 at 3.4 Gt CO2-eq per year and primary energy use at 49 EJ per year (9.5% of global use), and report the shares for all metals to both impact categories.

Life Cycle Assessment of Metals: A Scientific Synthesis

PubMed Central

Nuss, Philip; Eckelman, Matthew J.

2014-01-01

We have assembled extensive information on the cradle-to-gate environmental burdens of 63 metals in their major use forms, and illustrated the interconnectedness of metal production systems. Related cumulative energy use, global warming potential, human health implications and ecosystem damage are estimated by metal life cycle stage (i.e., mining, purification, and refining). For some elements, these are the first life cycle estimates of environmental impacts reported in the literature. We show that, if compared on a per kilogram basis, the platinum group metals and gold display the highest environmental burdens, while many of the major industrial metals (e.g., iron, manganese, titanium) are found at the lower end of the environmental impacts scale. If compared on the basis of their global annual production in 2008, iron and aluminum display the largest impacts, and thallium and tellurium the lowest. With the exception of a few metals, environmental impacts of the majority of elements are dominated by the purification and refining stages in which metals are transformed from a concentrate into their metallic form. Out of the 63 metals investigated, 42 metals are obtained as co-products in multi output processes. We test the sensitivity of varying allocation rationales, in which the environmental burden are allocated to the various metal and mineral products, on the overall results. Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to further investigate the stability of our results. This analysis is the most comprehensive life cycle comparison of metals to date and allows for the first time a complete bottom-up estimate of life cycle impacts of the metals and mining sector globally. We estimate global direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 at 3.4 Gt CO2-eq per year and primary energy use at 49 EJ per year (9.5% of global use), and report the shares for all metals to both impact categories. PMID:24999810

Eastern hemlock transpiration: patterns, controls, and implications for its decline in southern Appalachian forests

Treesearch

Chelcy R. Ford; James M. Vose

2006-01-01

Eastern hemlock, a principal riparian and cove canopy species in the southern Appalachian mountains, is facing potential widespread mortality due to the hemlock adelgid (HWA). To estimate the impact that the loss of this species will have on forest transpiration (E1) we quantified whole-tree (Ec) and leaf-level (E

77 FR 4169 - Endangered and Threatened Species: Final Rule To Revise the Critical Habitat Designation for the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-26

..., we have decided it is not feasible to provide meaningful quantitative estimates of the incremental... potential economic impacts to oil spill response. This revision (i.e., replacing quantitative costs with a... and separate PCE in this final designation. As more research is completed, and we learn more of the...

Assessment of Soil Erosion in a Cultivated Landscape Using Repeated Measurements of 137Cs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion is a major environmental concern with the potential to severely impact soil and water quality. Assessments of soil erosion are normally carried out using model predictions. Cesium-137 can be used to provide estimates of soil erosion at a landscape scale, and it remains the best tool to ...

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

Treesearch

Fangmin Zhang; Yude Pan; Richard A. Birdsey; Jing M. Chen; Alexa Dugan

2017-01-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of...

Academic Performance and Burnout: An Efficient Frontier Analysis of Resource Use Efficiency among Employed University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.

2015-01-01

We examine the impact of university student burnout on academic achievement. With a longitudinal sample of working undergraduate university business and economics students, we use a two-step analytical process to estimate the efficient frontiers of student productivity given inputs of labour and capital and then analyse the potential determinants…

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

Treesearch

Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

2008-01-01

We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

Estimating potential wind erosion of agricultural lands in northern China using the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) and GIS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fine materials emissions from severe wind-induced soil erosion have multiple impacts on land degradation and environmental pollution in the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China (APEC). Assessment of wind erosion for the agricultural land management systems in APEC are needed to determine which sy...

The Dairy Greenhouse Gas Model: A Tool for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon footprint of dairy production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their potential impact on the environment has become an important national and international concern. Animal agriculture is a recognized source of GHG emissions, but good information does not exist on the net emissions from our farms. A software tool called the Dai...

Student Mobility, Dosage, and Principal Stratification in School-Based RCTs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schochet, Peter Z.

2013-01-01

In school-based randomized control trials (RCTs), a common design is to follow student cohorts over time. For such designs, education researchers usually focus on the place-based (PB) impact parameter, which is estimated using data collected on all students enrolled in the study schools at each data collection point. A potential problem with this…

Stream protection with small cable yarding systems

Treesearch

Penn A. Peters; Chris B. LeDoux

1984-01-01

Small cable yarder systems that can be purchased and operated by independent logging contractors have less potential negative impact on water quality than ground-based systems operating on steep terrain because they do not require such an intense road system. Stream protection costs were estimated at $3.78 per lineal foot of stream when a typical small yarder (Koller K...

A Causal Inference Analysis of the Effect of Wildland Fire ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Wildfire smoke is a major contributor to ambient air pollution levels. In this talk, we develop a spatio-temporal model to estimate the contribution of fire smoke to overall air pollution in different regions of the country. We combine numerical model output with observational data within a causal inference framework. Our methods account for aggregation and potential bias of the numerical model simulation, and address uncertainty in the causal estimates. We apply the proposed method to estimation of ozone and fine particulate matter from wildland fires and the impact on health burden assessment. We develop a causal inference framework to assess contributions of fire to ambient PM in the presence of spatial interference.

Physical micro-environment interventions for healthier eating in the workplace: protocol for a stepped wedge randomised controlled pilot trial.

PubMed

Vasiljevic, Milica; Cartwright, Emma; Pechey, Rachel; Hollands, Gareth J; Couturier, Dominique-Laurent; Jebb, Susan A; Marteau, Theresa M

2017-01-01

An estimated one third of energy is consumed in the workplace. The workplace is therefore an important context in which to reduce energy consumption to tackle the high rates of overweight and obesity in the general population. Altering environmental cues for food selection and consumption-physical micro-environment or 'choice architecture' interventions-has the potential to reduce energy intake. The first aim of this pilot trial is to estimate the potential impact upon energy purchased of three such environmental cues (size of portions, packages and tableware; availability of healthier vs. less healthy options; and energy labelling) in workplace cafeterias. A second aim of this pilot trial is to examine the feasibility of recruiting eligible worksites, and identify barriers to the feasibility and acceptability of implementing the interventions in preparation for a larger trial. Eighteen worksite cafeterias in England will be assigned to one of three intervention groups to assess the impact on energy purchased of altering (a) portion, package and tableware size ( n  = 6); (b) availability of healthier options ( n  = 6); and (c) energy (calorie) labelling ( n  = 6). Using a stepped wedge design, sites will implement allocated interventions at different time periods, as randomised. This pilot trial will examine the feasibility of recruiting eligible worksites, and the feasibility and acceptability of implementing the interventions in preparation for a larger trial. In addition, a series of linear mixed models will be used to estimate the impact of each intervention on total energy (calories) purchased per time frame of analysis (daily or weekly) controlling for the total sales/transactions adjusted for calendar time and with random effects for worksite. These analyses will allow an estimate of an effect size of each of the three proposed interventions, which will form the basis of the sample size calculations necessary for a larger trial. ISRCTN52923504.

A First-Order Estimate of Automated Mobility District Fuel Consumption and GHG Emission Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yuche; Young, Stanley E; Gonder, Jeffrey D

A first of its kind, this study develops a framework to quantify the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission impacts of an Automated Small Vehicle Transit system on a campus area. The results show that the automated mobility district system has the potential to reduce transportation system fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but the benefits are largely dependent on the operation and ridership of the personal rapid transit system. Our study calls for more research to understand the energy and environmental benefits of such a system.

Properties of dust particles near Saturn inferred from voltage pulses induced by dust impacts on Cassini spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, S.-Y.; Gurnett, D. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Averkamp, T. F.; Kempf, S.; Hsu, H.-W.; Srama, R.; Grün, E.

2014-08-01

The Cassini Radio and Plasma Wave Science (RPWS) instrument can detect dust particles when voltage pulses induced by the dust impacts are observed in the wideband receiver. The size of the voltage pulse is proportional to the mass of the impacting dust particle. For the first time, the dust impacts signals measured by dipole and monopole electric antennas are compared, from which the effective impact area of the spacecraft is estimated to be 4 m2. In the monopole mode, the polarity of the dust impact signal is determined by the spacecraft potential and the location of the impact (on the spacecraft body or the antenna), which can be used to statistically infer the charge state of the spacecraft. It is shown that the differential number density of the dust particles near Saturn can be characterized as a power law dn/dr ∝ rμ, where μ ~ - 4 and r is the particle size. No peak is observed in the size distribution, contrary to the narrow size distribution found by previous studies. The RPWS cumulative dust density is compared with the Cosmic Dust Analyzer High Rate Detector measurement. The differences between the two instruments are within the range of uncertainty estimated for RPWS measurement. The RPWS onboard dust recorder and counter data are used to map the dust density and spacecraft charging state within Saturn's magnetosphere.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: Multiple sources and global applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grezio, Anita; Babeyko, Andrey; Baptista, Maria Ana; Behrens, Jörn; Costa, Antonio; Davies, Gareth; Geist, Eric L.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; González, Frank I.; Griffin, Jonathan; Harbitz, Carl B.; LeVeque, Randall J.; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Omira, Rachid; Mueller, Christof; Paris, Raphaël; Parsons, Thomas E.; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Selva, Jacopo; Sørensen, Mathilde B.; Thio, Hong Kie

2017-01-01

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grezio, Anita; Babeyko, Andrey; Baptista, Maria Ana; Behrens, Jörn; Costa, Antonio; Davies, Gareth; Geist, Eric L.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; González, Frank I.; Griffin, Jonathan; Harbitz, Carl B.; LeVeque, Randall J.; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Omira, Rachid; Mueller, Christof; Paris, Raphaël.; Parsons, Tom; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Selva, Jacopo; Sørensen, Mathilde B.; Thio, Hong Kie

2017-12-01

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

SUPPORT Tools for evidence-informed health Policymaking (STP) 16: Using research evidence in balancing the pros and cons of policies

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

This article is part of a series written for people responsible for making decisions about health policies and programmes and for those who support these decision makers. In this article, we address the use of evidence to inform judgements about the balance between the pros and cons of policy and programme options. We suggest five questions that can be considered when making these judgements. These are: 1. What are the options that are being compared? 2. What are the most important potential outcomes of the options being compared? 3. What is the best estimate of the impact of the options being compared for each important outcome? 4. How confident can policymakers and others be in the estimated impacts? 5. Is a formal economic model likely to facilitate decision making? PMID:20018106

The economic impact of state ordered avoided cost rates for photovoltaic generated electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottaro, D.; Wheatley, N. J.

Various methods the states have devised to implement federal policy regarding the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) of 1978, which requires that utilities pay their full 'avoided costs' to small power producers for the energy and capacity provided, are examined. The actions of several states are compared with rates estimated using utility expansion and rate-setting models, and the potential break-even capital costs of a photovoltaic system are estimated using models which calculate photovoltaic worth. The potential for the development of photovoltaics has been increased by the PURPA regulations more from the guarantee of utility purchase of photovoltaic power than from the high buy-back rates paid. The buy-back rate is high partly because of the surprisingly high effective capacity of photovoltaic systems in some locations.

Burden of suicide in Poland in 2012: how could it be measured and how big is it?

PubMed

Orlewska, Katarzyna; Orlewska, Ewa

2018-04-01

The aim of our study was to estimate the health-related and economic burden of suicide in Poland in 2012 and to demonstrate the effects of using different assumptions on the disease burden estimation. Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated by multiplying the number of deaths by the remaining life expectancy. Local expected YLL (LEYLL) and standard expected YLL (SEYLL) were computed using Polish life expectancy tables and WHO standards, respectively. In the base case analysis LEYLL and SEYLL were computed with 3.5 and 0% discount rates, respectively, and no age-weighting. Premature mortality costs were calculated using a human capital approach, with discounting at 5%, and are reported in Polish zloty (PLN) (1 euro = 4.3 PLN). The impact of applying different assumptions on base-case estimates was tested in sensitivity analyses. The total LEYLLs and SEYLLs due to suicide were 109,338 and 279,425, respectively, with 88% attributable to male deaths. The cost of male premature mortality (2,808,854,532 PLN) was substantially higher than for females (177,852,804 PLN). Discounting and age-weighting have a large effect on the base case estimates of LEYLLs. The greatest impact on the estimates of suicide-related premature mortality costs was due to the value of the discount rate. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the burden of suicide. In our opinion each of the demonstrated methods brings something valuable to the evaluation of the impact of suicide on a given population, but LEYLLs and premature mortality costs estimated according to national guidelines have the potential to be useful for local public health policymakers.

Estimated impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in India: effects of geographic and economic disparities.

PubMed

Rheingans, Richard; Anderson, John D; Anderson, Benjamin; Chakraborty, Poulomy; Atherly, Deborah; Pindolia, Deepa

2014-08-11

India accounts for 23% of global rotavirus mortality in under-five children, with more than 100,000 deaths from rotavirus annually. Introduction of a vaccine in India is considered to be the most effective intervention for preventing rotavirus mortality. Recent research suggests that there is considerable variation in rotavirus mortality burden across regional, gender and socio-economic subpopulations within India. In addition, there is potential variability in who would likely receive rotavirus vaccine if introduced. We use available household data to estimate heterogeneity in rotavirus mortality risk, vaccination benefits, and cost-effectiveness across geographic and socio-economic groups within India. We account for heterogeneity by modeling estimated three-dose routine vaccinations as a proxy for a generalized rotavirus vaccine, and mortality for subpopulations of children aggregated by region and state, socio-economic status and sex, separately. Results are presented for six geographic regions and for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, three high mortality states accounting for 56% of national mortality estimates. Impact estimates accounting for disparities predict rotavirus vaccine introduction will prevent 35,000 deaths at an average cost of $118/DALY averted (7292 INR/DALY averted). Rotavirus vaccines are most cost-effective for the poor living in high mortality regions and states. Reductions in geographic and socio-economic disparities based on regional estimates could prevent an additional 9400 deaths annually, while reductions in socio-economic disparities in the three highest morality states alone could prevent an additional 10,600 deaths annually. Understanding the impact of heterogeneity can help improve strategies to maximize the benefits of rotavirus vaccination introduction, leading to fewer lives lost as a result of rotavirus disease. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimating the impact of state budget cuts and redirection of prevention resources on the HIV epidemic in 59 California local health departments.

PubMed

Lin, Feng; Lasry, Arielle; Sansom, Stephanie L; Wolitski, Richard J

2013-01-01

In the wake of a national economic downturn, the state of California, in 2009-2010, implemented budget cuts that eliminated state funding of HIV prevention and testing. To mitigate the effect of these cuts remaining federal funds were redirected. This analysis estimates the impact of these budget cuts and reallocation of resources on HIV transmission and associated HIV treatment costs. We estimated the effect of the budget cuts and reallocation for California county health departments (excluding Los Angeles and San Francisco) on the number of individuals living with or at-risk for HIV who received HIV prevention services. We used a Bernoulli model to estimate the number of new infections that would occur each year as a result of the changes, and assigned lifetime treatment costs to those new infections. We explored the effect of redirecting federal funds to more cost-effective programs, as well as the potential effect of allocating funds proportionately by transmission category. We estimated that cutting HIV prevention resulted in 55 new infections that were associated with $20 million in lifetime treatment costs. The redirection of federal funds to more cost-effective programs averted 15 HIV infections. If HIV prevention funding were allocated proportionately to transmission categories, we estimated that HIV infections could be reduced below the number that occurred annually before the state budget cuts. Reducing funding for HIV prevention may result in short-term savings at the expense of additional HIV infections and increased HIV treatment costs. Existing HIV prevention funds would likely have a greater impact on the epidemic if they were allocated to the more cost-effective programs and the populations most likely to acquire and transmit the infection.

Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity and Climate Change Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leon, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.; Li, H. Y.

2014-12-01

Hydropower is a dominant renewable energy source at the global level, accounting for more than 15% of the world's total power supply. It is also very vulnerable to climate change. Improved understanding of climate change impact on hydropower can help develop adaptation measures to increase the resilience of energy system. In this study, we developed a comprehensive estimate of global hydropower potential using runoff and stream flow data derived from a global hydrologic model with a river routing sub-model, along with turbine technology performance, cost assumptions, and environmental consideration (Figure 1). We find that hydropower has the potential to supply a significant portion of the world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by regions. Resources in a number of countries exceed by multiple folds the total current demand for electricity, e.g., Russia and Indonesia. A sensitivity analysis indicates that hydropower potential can be highly sensitive to a number of parameters including designed flow for capacity, cost and financing, turbine efficiency, and stream flow. The climate change impact on hydropower potential was evaluated by using runoff outputs from 4 climate models (HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, and CSIRO2). It was found that the climate change on hydropower shows large variation not only by regions, but also climate models, and this demonstrates the importance of incorporating climate change into infrastructure-planning at the regional level though the existing uncertainties.

Threat evaluation for impact assessment in situation analysis systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Jean; Paradis, Stephane; Allouche, Mohamad

2002-07-01

Situation analysis is defined as a process, the examination of a situation, its elements, and their relations, to provide and maintain a product, i.e., a state of situation awareness, for the decision maker. Data fusion is a key enabler to meeting the demanding requirements of military situation analysis support systems. According to the data fusion model maintained by the Joint Directors of Laboratories' Data Fusion Group, impact assessment estimates the effects on situations of planned or estimated/predicted actions by the participants, including interactions between action plans of multiple players. In this framework, the appraisal of actual or potential threats is a necessary capability for impact assessment. This paper reviews and discusses in details the fundamental concepts of threat analysis. In particular, threat analysis generally attempts to compute some threat value, for the individual tracks, that estimates the degree of severity with which engagement events will potentially occur. Presenting relevant tracks to the decision maker in some threat list, sorted from the most threatening to the least, is clearly in-line with the cognitive demands associated with threat evaluation. A key parameter in many threat value evaluation techniques is the Closest Point of Approach (CPA). Along this line of thought, threatening tracks are often prioritized based upon which ones will reach their CPA first. Hence, the Time-to-CPA (TCPA), i.e., the time it will take for a track to reach its CPA, is also a key factor. Unfortunately, a typical assumption for the computation of the CPA/TCPA parameters is that the track velocity will remain constant. When a track is maneuvering, the CPA/TCPA values will change accordingly. These changes will in turn impact the threat value computations and, ultimately, the resulting threat list. This is clearly undesirable from a command decision-making perspective. In this regard, the paper briefly discusses threat value stabilization approaches based on neural networks and other mathematical techniques.

Scaling Up Family Planning to Reduce Maternal and Child Mortality: The Potential Costs and Benefits of Modern Contraceptive Use in South Africa

PubMed Central

Chola, Lumbwe; McGee, Shelley; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Buchmann, Eckhart; Hofman, Karen

2015-01-01

Introduction Family planning contributes significantly to the prevention of maternal and child mortality. However, many women still do not use modern contraception and the numbers of unintended pregnancies, abortions and subsequent deaths are high. In this paper, we estimate the service delivery costs of scaling up modern contraception, and the potential impact on maternal, newborn and child survival in South Africa. Methods The Family Planning model in Spectrum was used to project the impact of modern contraception on pregnancies, abortions and births in South Africa (2015-2030). The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was increased annually by 0.68 percentage points. The Lives Saved Tool was used to estimate maternal and child deaths, with coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions increasing by 5% annually. A scenario analysis was done to test impacts when: the change in CPR was 0.1% annually; and intervention coverage increased linearly to 99% in 2030. Results If CPR increased by 0.68% annually, the number of pregnancies would reduce from 1.3 million in 2014 to one million in 2030. Unintended pregnancies, abortions and births decrease by approximately 20%. Family planning can avert approximately 7,000 newborn and child and 600 maternal deaths. The total annual costs of providing modern contraception in 2030 are estimated to be US$33 million and the cost per user of modern contraception is US$7 per year. The incremental cost per life year gained is US$40 for children and US$1,000 for mothers. Conclusion Maternal and child mortality remain high in South Africa, and scaling up family planning together with optimal maternal, newborn and child care is crucial. A huge impact can be made on maternal and child mortality, with a minimal investment per user of modern contraception. PMID:26076482

A tool for cost-effectiveness analysis of field scale sediment-bound phosphorus mitigation measures and application to analysis of spatial and temporal targeting in the Lunan Water catchment, Scotland.

PubMed

Vinten, Andy; Sample, James; Ibiyemi, Adekunle; Abdul-Salam, Yakubu; Stutter, Marc

2017-05-15

The cost-effectiveness of six edge-of-field measures for mitigating diffuse pollution from sediment bound phosphorus (P) runoff from temperate arable farmland is analysed at catchment/field scales. These measures were: buffer strips, permanent grassland in the lowest 7% of arable fields, dry detention bunds, wetlands, and temporary barriers such as sediment fences. Baseline field P export was estimated using export coefficients (low risk crops) or a modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (high risk crops). The impact of measures was estimated using simple equations. Costs were estimated from gross margin losses or local data on grants. We used a net cost:benefit (NCB) factor to normalise the costs and impacts of each measure over time. Costs minimisation for target impact was done using PuLP, a linear programming module for Python, across 1634 riparian and non-riparian fields in the Lunan Water, a mixed arable catchment in Eastern Scotland. With all measures in place, average cost-effectiveness increases from £9 to £48/kg P as target P mitigation increases from 500 to 2500kg P across the catchment. Costs increase significantly when the measures available are restricted only to those currently eligible for government grants (buffers, bunds and wetlands). The assumed orientation of the average field slope makes a strong difference to the potential for storage of water by bunds and overall cost-effectiveness, but the non-funded measures can substitute for the extra expense incurred by bunds, where the slope orientation is not suitable. Economic discounting over time of impacts and costs of measures favours those measures, such as sediment fences, which are strongly targeted both spatially and temporally. This tool could be a useful guide for dialogue with land users about the potential fields to target for mitigation to achieve catchment targets. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of cognitive load on reward evaluation.

PubMed

Krigolson, Olave E; Hassall, Cameron D; Satel, Jason; Klein, Raymond M

2015-11-19

The neural systems that afford our ability to evaluate rewards and punishments are impacted by a variety of external factors. Here, we demonstrate that increased cognitive load reduces the functional efficacy of a reward processing system within the human medial-frontal cortex. In our paradigm, two groups of participants used performance feedback to estimate the exact duration of one second while electroencephalographic (EEG) data was recorded. Prior to performing the time estimation task, both groups were instructed to keep their eyes still and avoid blinking in line with well established EEG protocol. However, during performance of the time-estimation task, one of the two groups was provided with trial-to-trial-feedback about their performance on the time-estimation task and their eye movements to induce a higher level of cognitive load relative to participants in the other group who were solely provided with feedback about the accuracy of their temporal estimates. In line with previous work, we found that the higher level of cognitive load reduced the amplitude of the feedback-related negativity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with reward evaluation within the medial-frontal cortex. Importantly, our results provide further support that increased cognitive load reduces the functional efficacy of a neural system associated with reward processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Policy Impact Analysis of the Mandatory NCAA Sickle Cell Trait Screening Program

PubMed Central

Tarini, Beth A; Brooks, Margaret Alison; Bundy, David G

2012-01-01

Objective To estimate the impact of the mandatory National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) sickle cell trait (SCT) screening policy on the identification of sickle cell carriers and prevention of sudden death. Data Source We used NCAA reports, population-based SCT prevalence estimates, and published risks for exercise-related sudden death attributable to SCT. Study Design We estimated the number of sickle cell carriers identified and the number of potentially preventable sudden deaths with mandatory SCT screening of NCAA Division I athletes. We calculated the number of student-athletes with SCT using a conditional probability based upon SCT prevalence data and self-identified race/ethnicity status. We estimated sudden deaths over 10 years based on published attributable risk of exercise-related sudden death due to SCT. Principal Findings We estimate that over 2,000 NCAA Division I student-athletes with SCT will be identified under this screening policy and that, without intervention, about seven NCAA Division I student-athletes would die suddenly as a complication of SCT over a 10-year period. Conclusion Universal sickle cell screening of NCAA Division I student-athletes will identify a substantial number of sickle cell carriers. A successful intervention could prevent about seven deaths over a decade. PMID:22150647

Staggered scheduling of sensor estimation and fusion for tracking over long-haul links

DOE PAGES

Liu, Qiang; Rao, Nageswara S. V.; Wang, Xin

2016-08-01

Networked sensing can be found in a multitude of real-world applications. Here, we focus on the communication-and computation-constrained long-haul sensor networks, where sensors are remotely deployed over a vast geographical area to perform certain tasks. Of special interest is a class of such networks where sensors take measurements of one or more dynamic targets and send their state estimates to a remote fusion center via long-haul satellite links. The severe loss and delay over such links can easily reduce the amount of sensor data received by the fusion center, thereby limiting the potential information fusion gain and resulting in suboptimalmore » tracking performance. In this paper, starting with the temporal-domain staggered estimation for an individual sensor, we explore the impact of the so-called intra-state prediction and retrodiction on estimation errors. We then investigate the effect of such estimation scheduling across different sensors on the spatial-domain fusion performance, where the sensing time epochs across sensors are scheduled in an asynchronous and staggered manner. In particular, the impact of communication delay and loss as well as sensor bias on such scheduling is explored by means of numerical and simulation studies that demonstrate the validity of our analysis.« less

The health and economic benefits of reducing intimate partner violence: an Australian example.

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Sheppard, Lauren; Cumming, Toby B; Thayabaranathan, Tharshanah; Pearce, Dora C; Carter, Rob; Magnus, Anne

2015-07-09

Intimate partner violence (IPV) has important impacts on the health of women in society. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of IPV in the 2008 Australian female adult population. Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 5 percentage point absolute feasible reduction target in the prevalence of IPV from current Australian levels (27%). IPV is not measured in national surveys. Levels of psychological distress were used as a proxy for exposure to IPV since psychological conditions represent three-quarters of the disease burden from IPV. Lifetime cohort health benefits for females were estimated as fewer incident cases of violence-related disease and injury; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Opportunity cost savings were estimated for the health sector, paid and unpaid production and leisure from reduced incidence of IPV-related disease and deaths. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of females with moderate psychological distress (lifetime IPV exposure) against high or very high distress (current IPV exposure), and valued using the friction cost approach (FCA). The impact of improved health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modelled from time use survey data. Potential costs associated with interventions to reduce IPV were not considered. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariable sensitivity analyses were undertaken. A 5 percentage point absolute reduction in the lifetime prevalence of IPV in the 2008 Australian female population was estimated to produce 6000 fewer incident cases of disease/injury, 74 fewer deaths, 5000 fewer DALYs lost and provide gains of 926,000 working days, 371,000 days of home-based production and 428,000 leisure days. Overall, AUD371 million in opportunity cost savings could be achievable. The greatest economic savings would be home-based production (AUD147 million), followed by leisure time (AUD98 million), workforce production (AUD94 million) and reduced health sector costs (AUD38 million). This study contributes new knowledge about the economic impact of IPV in females. The findings provide evidence of large potential opportunity cost savings from reducing the prevalence of IPV and reinforce the need to reduce IPV in Australia, and elsewhere.

Air quality impacts of projections of natural gas-fired distributed generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Jeremy R.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Dabdub, Donald; Lemar, Paul; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg; Young, David; Shaw, Stephanie L.; Knipping, Eladio M.

2017-11-01

This study assesses the potential impacts on emissions and air quality from the increased adoption of natural gas-fired distributed generation of electricity (DG), including displacement of power from central power generation, in the contiguous United States. The study includes four major tasks: (1) modeling of distributed generation market penetration; (2) modeling of central power generation systems; (3) modeling of spatially and temporally resolved emissions; and (4) photochemical grid modeling to evaluate the potential air quality impacts of increased DG penetration, which includes both power-only DG and combined heat and power (CHP) units, for 2030. Low and high DG penetration scenarios estimate the largest penetration of future DG units in three regions - New England, New York, and California. Projections of DG penetration in the contiguous United States estimate 6.3 GW and 24 GW of market adoption in 2030 for the low DG penetration and high DG penetration scenarios, respectively. High DG penetration (all of which is natural gas-fired) serves to offset 8 GW of new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units, and 19 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations by 2030. In all scenarios, air quality in the central United States and the northwest remains unaffected as there is little to no DG penetration in those states. California and several states in the northeast are the most impacted by emissions from DG units. Peak increases in maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentrations exceed 5 ppb, which may impede attainment of ambient air quality standards. Overall, air quality impacts from DG vary greatly based on meteorological conditions, proximity to emissions sources, the number and type of DG installations, and the emissions factors used for DG units.

Demonstrating bias and improved inference for stoves' health benefits.

PubMed

Mueller, Valerie; Pfaff, Alexander; Peabody, John; Liu, Yaping; Smith, Kirk R

2011-12-01

Many studies associate health risks with household air pollution from biomass fuels and stoves. Evaluations of stove improvements can suffer from bias because they rarely address health-relevant differences between the households who get improvements and those who do not. We demonstrate both the potential for bias and an option for improved stove inference by applying to household air pollution a technique used elsewhere in epidemiology, propensity-score matching (PSM), based on a stoves-and-health survey for China (15 counties, 3500 households). Health-relevant factors (age, wealth, kitchen ventilation) do in fact differ considerably between the households with stove improvements and those without. We study the resulting bias in estimates of cleaner-stove impacts using a self-reported Physical Component Summary (PCS). Typical stoves-literature regressions with little control for non-stove factors suggest no benefits from a cleaner-fuel stove relative to a traditional biomass stove. Yet increasing controls raises the impact estimates. Our PSM estimates address the differences in health-relevant factors using 'apples to apples' comparisons between those with improved stoves and 'similar' households. This generates higher estimates of clean-stove benefits, which are on the order of one half the standard deviation of the PCS outcome. Our data demonstrate the potential importance of bias in household air pollution studies. This results from failure to address the possibility that those receiving improved stoves are themselves prone to better or worse health outcomes. It suggests the value of data collection and of study design for cookstove interventions and, more generally, for policy interventions within many health outcomes.

Attributable risk and potential impact of interventions to reduce household air pollution associated with under-five mortality in South Asia.

PubMed

Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

2018-01-01

Solid fuel use is the major source of household air pollution (HAP) and accounts for a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality in low and middle income countries. To evaluate and compare childhood mortality attributable to HAP in four South Asian countries. A series of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan were used for analysis. Estimates of relative risk and exposure prevalence relating to use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality were used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for each country. Potential impact fractions (PIFs) were also calculated assessing theoretical scenarios based on published interventions aiming to reduce exposure prevalence. There are an increased risk of under-five mortality in those exposed to cooking fuel compared to those not exposed in the four South Asian countries (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.07-1.57, P  = 0.007). Combined PAF estimates for South Asia found that 66% (95% CI: 43.1-81.5%) of the 13,290 estimated cases of under-five mortality was attributable to HAP. Joint PIF estimates (assuming achievable reductions in HAP reported in intervention studies conducted in South Asia) indicates 47% of neonatal and 43% of under-five mortality cases associated with HAP could be avoidable in the four South Asian countries studied. Elimination of exposure to use of cooking fuel in the household targeting valuable intervention strategies (such as cooking in separate kitchen, improved cook stoves) could reduce substantially under-five mortality in South Asian countries.

Bioregional Assessments: Determining the Impacts of Coal Resource Development on Water Resources in Australia through Groundwater, Surface Water and Ecological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peeters, L. J.; Post, D. A.; Crosbie, R.; Holland, K.

2017-12-01

While extraction of methane from shale gas deposits has been the principal source of the recent expansion of the industry in the United States, in Australia extraction of methane from coal bed methane deposits (termed `coal seam gas' in Australia) has been the focus to date. The two sources of methane share many of the same characteristics including the potential requirement for hydraulic fracturing. However, as coal seam gas deposits generally occur at shallower depths than shale gas, the potential impacts of extraction on surface and groundwater resources may be of even greater concern. The Australian Federal Government commissioned a multi-disciplinary programme of bioregional assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining activities on water resources and water-dependent assets across six bioregions Australia. A bioregional assessment is a transparent scientific analysis of the ecology, hydrology, geology and hydrogeology of a bioregion with explicit assessment of the potential direct, indirect and cumulative impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining development on water resources. The first step in the analysis is to establish the most likely scenario for coal development in each region and establish a causal pathway linking coal development to impacts to the social, economic and ecological functioning of water resources. This forms the basis for a sequence of probabilistic geological, hydrogeological, hydrological and ecological models to quantify the probability of potential impacts. This suite of models is developed independent of the proponents and regulators of coal resource developments and so can provide unbiased information to all stakeholders. To demonstrate transparency of the modelling, all inputs, outputs and executables will be available from http://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au. The analysis delineated a zone of potential hydrological change for each region, outside of which impacts from coal development are very unlikely. Within each zone, the analysis provides a regional estimate of the likely impacts and identifies the major knowledge and data gaps. This information provides a framework for further local study.

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Potential benefits and secondary impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Heath, Garvin

We model scenarios of the U.S. electric sector in which wind generation reaches 10% of end-use electricity demand in 2020, 20% in 2030, and 35% in 2050. As shown in a companion paper, achieving these penetration levels would have significant implications for the wind industry and the broader electric sector. Compared to a baseline that assumes no new wind deployment, under the primary scenario modeled, achieving these penetrations imposes an incremental cost to electricity consumers of less than 1% through 2030. These cost implications, however, should be balanced against the variety of environmental and social implications of such a scenario.more » Relative to a baseline that assumes no new wind deployment, our analysis shows that the high-penetration wind scenario yields potential greenhouse-gas benefits of $85-$1,230 billion in present-value terms, with a central estimate of $400 billion. Air-pollution-related health benefits are estimated at $52-$272 billion, while annual electric-sector water withdrawals and consumption are lower by 15% and 23% in 2050, respectively. We also find that a high-wind-energy future would have implications for the diversity and risk of energy supply, local economic development, and land use and related local impacts on communities and ecosystems; however, these additional impacts may not greatly affect aggregate social welfare owing to their nature, in part, as resource transfers.« less

Projected health impact of the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance

PubMed Central

Cole, B.; Shimkhada, R.; Morgenstern, H.; Kominski, G.; Fielding, J.; Wu, S.

2005-01-01

Study objective: To estimate the relative health effects of the income and health insurance provisions of the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance. Setting and participants: About 10 000 employees of city contractors are subject to the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance, which establishes an annually adjusted minimum wage ($7.99 per hour in July 2002) and requires employers to contribute $1.25 per hour worked towards employees' health insurance, or, if health insurance is not provided, to add this amount to wages. Design: As part of a comprehensive health impact assessment (HIA), we used estimates of the effects of health insurance and income on mortality from the published literature to construct a model to estimate and compare potential reductions in mortality attributable to the increases in wage and changes in health insurance status among workers covered by the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance. Results: The model predicts that the ordinance currently reduces mortality by 1.4 deaths per year per 10 000 workers at a cost of $27.5 million per death prevented. If the ordinance were modified so that all uninsured workers received health insurance, mortality would be reduced by eight deaths per year per 10 000 workers at a cost of $3.4 million per death prevented. Conclusions: The health insurance provisions of the ordinance have the potential to benefit the health of covered workers far more cost effectively than the wage provisions of the ordinance. This analytical model can be adapted and used in other health impact assessments of related policy actions that might affect either income or access to health insurance in the affected population. PMID:16020640

Projected health impact of the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance.

PubMed

Cole, Brian L; Shimkhada, Riti; Morgenstern, Hal; Kominski, Gerald; Fielding, Jonathan E; Wu, Sheng

2005-08-01

To estimate the relative health effects of the income and health insurance provisions of the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance. About 10 000 employees of city contractors are subject to the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance, which establishes an annually adjusted minimum wage (7.99 US dollars per hour in July 2002) and requires employers to contribute 1.25 US dollars per hour worked towards employees' health insurance, or, if health insurance is not provided, to add this amount to wages. As part of a comprehensive health impact assessment (HIA), we used estimates of the effects of health insurance and income on mortality from the published literature to construct a model to estimate and compare potential reductions in mortality attributable to the increases in wage and changes in health insurance status among workers covered by the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance. The model predicts that the ordinance currently reduces mortality by 1.4 deaths per year per 10,000 workers at a cost of 27.5 million US dollars per death prevented. If the ordinance were modified so that all uninsured workers received health insurance, mortality would be reduced by eight deaths per year per 10,000 workers at a cost of 3.4 million US dollars per death prevented. The health insurance provisions of the ordinance have the potential to benefit the health of covered workers far more cost effectively than the wage provisions of the ordinance. This analytical model can be adapted and used in other health impact assessments of related policy actions that might affect either income or access to health insurance in the affected population.

The Cost of Unintended Pregnancies in Canada: Estimating Direct Cost, Role of Imperfect Adherence, and the Potential Impact of Increased Use of Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives.

PubMed

Black, Amanda Y; Guilbert, Edith; Hassan, Fareen; Chatziheofilou, Ismini; Lowin, Julia; Jeddi, Mark; Filonenko, Anna; Trussell, James

2015-12-01

Unintended pregnancies (UPs) are associated with a significant cost burden, but the full cost burden in Canada is not known. The objectives of this study were to quantify the direct cost of UPs in Canada, the proportion of cost attributable to UPs and imperfect contraceptive adherence and the potential cost savings with increased uptake of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs). A cost model was constructed to estimate the annual number and direct costs of UP in women aged 18 to 44 years. Adherence-associated UP rates were estimated using perfect- and typical-use contraceptive failure rates. Change in annual number of UPs and impact on cost burden were projected in three scenarios of increased LARC usage. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of key variables on scenarios of increased LARC use. There are more than 180 700 UPs annually in Canada. The associated direct cost was over $320 million. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of UPs occurred in women aged 20 to 29 years at an annual cost of $175 million; 82% of this cost ($143 million) was attributable to contraceptive non-adherence. Increased LARC uptake produced cost savings of over $34 million in all three switching scenarios; the largest savings ($35 million) occurred when 10% of oral contraceptive users switched to LARCs. The minimum duration of LARC usage required before cost savings was realized was 12 months. The cost of UPs in Canada is significant and much of it can be attributed to imperfect contraceptive adherence. Increased LARC uptake may reduce contraceptive non-adherence, thereby reducing rates of UP and generating significant cost savings, particularly in women aged 20 to 29.

Using GIS to evaluate a fire safety program in North Carolina.

PubMed

Dudley, Thomas; Creppage, Kathleen; Shanahan, Meghan; Proescholdbell, Scott

2013-10-01

Evaluating program impact is a critical aspect of public health. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a novel way to evaluate programs which try to reduce residential fire injuries and deaths. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the application of GIS within the evaluation of a smoke alarm installation program in North Carolina. This approach incorporates national fire incident data which, when linked with program data, provides a clear depiction of the 10 years impact of the Get Alarmed, NC! program and estimates the number of potential lives saved. We overlapped Get Alarmed, NC! program installation data with national information on fires using GIS to identify homes that experienced a fire after an alarm was installed and calculated potential lives saved based on program documentation and average housing occupancy. We found that using GIS was an efficient and quick way to match addresses from two distinct sources. From this approach we estimated that between 221 and 384 residents were potentially saved due to alarms installed in their homes by Get Alarmed, NC!. Compared with other program evaluations that require intensive and costly participant telephone surveys and/or in-person interviews, the GIS approach is inexpensive, quick, and can easily analyze large disparate datasets. In addition, it can be used to help target the areas most at risk from the onset. These benefits suggest that by incorporating previously unutilized data, the GIS approach has the potential for broader applications within public health program evaluation.

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

2015-09-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

The impact of male circumcision on HIV incidence and cost per infection prevented: a stochastic simulation model from Rakai, Uganda.

PubMed

Gray, Ronald H; Li, Xianbin; Kigozi, Godfrey; Serwadda, David; Nalugoda, Fred; Watya, Stephen; Reynolds, Steven J; Wawer, Maria

2007-04-23

To estimate the impact of male circumcision on HIV incidence, the number of procedures per HIV infection averted, and costs per infection averted. A stochastic simulation model with empirically derived parameters from a cohort in Rakai, Uganda was used to estimate HIV incidence, assuming that male circumcision reduced the risks of HIV acquisition with rate ratios (RR) ranging from 0.3 to 0.6 in men, their female partners, and in both sexes combined, with circumcision coverage 0-100%. The reproductive number (R0) was also estimated. The number of HIV infections averted per circumcision was estimated from the incident cases in the absence of surgery minus the projected number of incident cases over 10 years following circumcision. The cost per procedure ($69.00) was used to estimate the cost per HIV infection averted. Baseline HIV incidence was 1.2/100 person-years. Male circumcision could markedly reduce HIV incidence in this population, particularly if there was preventative efficacy in both sexes. Under many scenarios, with RR < or = 0.5, circumcision could reduce R0 to < 1.0 and potentially abort the epidemic. The number of surgeries per infection averted over 10 years was 19-58, and the costs per infection averted was $1269-3911, depending on the efficacy of circumcision for either or both sexes, assuming 75% service coverage. However, behavioral disinhibition could offset any benefits of circumcision. Male circumcision could have substantial impact on the HIV epidemic and provide a cost-effective prevention strategy if benefits are not countered by behavioral disinhibition.