Safety evaluation of driver cognitive failures and driving errors on right-turn filtering movement at signalized road intersections based on Fuzzy Cellular Automata (FCA) model.

PubMed

Chai, Chen; Wong, Yiik Diew; Wang, Xuesong

2017-07-01

This paper proposes a simulation-based approach to estimate safety impact of driver cognitive failures and driving errors. Fuzzy Logic, which involves linguistic terms and uncertainty, is incorporated with Cellular Automata model to simulate decision-making process of right-turn filtering movement at signalized intersections. Simulation experiments are conducted to estimate the relationships between cognitive failures and driving errors with safety performance. Simulation results show Different types of cognitive failures are found to have varied relationship with driving errors and safety performance. For right-turn filtering movement, cognitive failures are more likely to result in driving errors with denser conflicting traffic stream. Moreover, different driving errors are found to have different safety impacts. The study serves to provide a novel approach to linguistically assess cognitions and replicate decision-making procedures of the individual driver. Compare to crash analysis, the proposed FCA model allows quantitative estimation of particular cognitive failures, and the impact of cognitions on driving errors and safety performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe themore » RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.« less

Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

2018-02-01

There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a method to rate the primary safety of vehicles using linked New Zealand crash and vehicle licensing data.

PubMed

Keall, Michael D; Newstead, Stuart

2016-01-01

Vehicle safety rating systems aim firstly to inform consumers about safe vehicle choices and, secondly, to encourage vehicle manufacturers to aspire to safer levels of vehicle performance. Primary rating systems (that measure the ability of a vehicle to assist the driver in avoiding crashes) have not been developed for a variety of reasons, mainly associated with the difficult task of disassociating driver behavior and vehicle exposure characteristics from the estimation of crash involvement risk specific to a given vehicle. The aim of the current study was to explore different approaches to primary safety estimation, identifying which approaches (if any) may be most valid and most practical, given typical data that may be available for producing ratings. Data analyzed consisted of crash data and motor vehicle registration data for the period 2003 to 2012: 21,643,864 observations (representing vehicle-years) and 135,578 crashed vehicles. Various logistic models were tested as a means to estimate primary safety: Conditional models (conditioning on the vehicle owner over all vehicles owned); full models not conditioned on the owner, with all available owner and vehicle data; reduced models with few variables; induced exposure models; and models that synthesised elements from the latter two models. It was found that excluding young drivers (aged 25 and under) from all primary safety estimates attenuated some high risks estimated for make/model combinations favored by young people. The conditional model had clear biases that made it unsuitable. Estimates from a reduced model based just on crash rates per year (but including an owner location variable) produced estimates that were generally similar to the full model, although there was more spread in the estimates. The best replication of the full model estimates was generated by a synthesis of the reduced model and an induced exposure model. This study compared approaches to estimating primary safety that could mimic an analysis based on a very rich data set, using variables that are commonly available when registered fleet data are linked to crash data. This exploratory study has highlighted promising avenues for developing primary safety rating systems for vehicle makes and models.

Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation, San Diego technical capability analysis test plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-11-01

The purpose of this working paper is to present estimates of potential safety benefits resulting from full implementation of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in the United States. These estimates were derived by integrating results from a num...

Posttest analysis of the FFTF inherent safety tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Padilla, A. Jr.; Claybrook, S.W.

Inherent safety tests were performed during 1986 in the 400-MW (thermal) Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) reactor to demonstrate the effectiveness of an inherent shutdown device called the gas expansion module (GEM). The GEM device provided a strong negative reactivity feedback during loss-of-flow conditions by increasing the neutron leakage as a result of an expanding gas bubble. The best-estimate pretest calculations for these tests were performed using the IANUS plant analysis code (Westinghouse Electric Corporation proprietary code) and the MELT/SIEX3 core analysis code. These two codes were also used to perform the required operational safety analyses for the FFTF reactormore » and plant. Although it was intended to also use the SASSYS systems (core and plant) analysis code, the calibration of the SASSYS code for FFTF core and plant analysis was not completed in time to perform pretest analyses. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the posttest analysis of the 1986 FFTF inherent safety tests using the SASSYS code.« less

Traffic safety facts 1996 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2005 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2006 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2000 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2001 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 1998 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-10-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2002 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2003 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 1999 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 1994 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

System analysis of alcohol countermeasures

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-01-01

The purpose of the contract was to conduct a benefit/cost analysis of seven alcohol safety countermeasures in order to determine the potential for successful implementation in terms of the estimated cost/effectiveness of each countermeasure and to pr...

Controlling for quality in the hospital cost function.

PubMed

Carey, Kathleen; Stefos, Theodore

2011-06-01

This paper explores the relationship between the cost and quality of hospital care from the perspective of applied microeconomics. It addresses both theoretical and practical complexities entailed in incorporating hospital quality into the estimation of hospital cost functions. That literature is extended with an empirical analysis that examines the use of 15 Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) as measures of hospital quality. A total operating cost function is estimated on 2,848 observations from five states drawn from the period 2001 to 2007. In general, findings indicate that the PSIs are successful in capturing variation in hospital cost due to adverse patient safety events. Measures that rely on the aggregate number of adverse events summed over PSIs are found to be superior to risk-adjusted rates for individual PSIs. The marginal cost of an adverse event is estimated to be $22,413. The results contribute to a growing business case for inpatient safety in hospital services.

Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

PubMed

Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

2014-10-01

Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that the probability of occurrence of severe injury crashes is higher at lighted intersections compared to unlighted intersections, which contradicts the findings obtained from the propensity scores-potential outcomes framework. This finding underscores the importance of having comparable treated and untreated entities in traffic safety countermeasure evaluations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Scottsdale Loop 101 automated speed enforcement demonstration program.

PubMed

Shin, Kangwon; Washington, Simon P; van Schalkwyk, Ida

2009-05-01

Speeding is recognized as a major contributing factor in traffic crashes. In order to reduce speed-related crashes, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona implemented the first fixed-camera photo speed enforcement program (SEP) on a limited access freeway in the US. The 9-month demonstration program spanning from January 2006 to October 2006 was implemented on a 6.5 mile urban freeway segment of Arizona State Route 101 running through Scottsdale. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SEP on speeding behavior, crashes, and the economic impact of crashes. The impact on speeding behavior was estimated using generalized least square estimation, in which the observed speeds and the speeding frequencies during the program period were compared to those during other periods. The impact of the SEP on crashes was estimated using 3 evaluation methods: a before-and-after (BA) analysis using a comparison group, a BA analysis with traffic flow correction, and an empirical Bayes BA analysis with time-variant safety. The analysis results reveal that speeding detection frequencies (speeds> or =76 mph) increased by a factor of 10.5 after the SEP was (temporarily) terminated. Average speeds in the enforcement zone were reduced by about 9 mph when the SEP was implemented, after accounting for the influence of traffic flow. All crash types were reduced except rear-end crashes, although the estimated magnitude of impact varies across estimation methods (and their corresponding assumptions). When considering Arizona-specific crash related injury costs, the SEP is estimated to yield about $17 million in annual safety benefits.

Local Food Systems Food Safety Concerns.

PubMed

Chapman, Benjamin; Gunter, Chris

2018-04-01

Foodborne disease causes an estimated 48 million illnesses and 3,000 deaths annually (Scallan E, et al., Emerg Infect Dis 17:7-15, 2011), with U.S. economic costs estimated at $152 billion to $1.4 trillion annually (Roberts T, Am J Agric Econ 89:1183-1188, 2007; Scharff RL, http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/0001/01/01/healthrelated-costs-from-foodborne-illness-in-the-united-states, 2010). An increasing number of these illnesses are associated with fresh fruits and vegetables. An analysis of outbreaks from 1990 to 2003 found that 12% of outbreaks and 20% of outbreak-related illnesses were associated with produce (Klein S, Smith DeWaal CS, Center for Science in the Public Interest, https://cspinet.org/sites/default/files/attachment/ddreport.pdf, June 2008; Lynch M, Tauxe R, Hedberg C, Epidemiol Infect 137:307-315, 2009). These food safety problems have resulted in various stakeholders recommending the shift to a more preventative and risk-based food safety system. A modern risk-based food safety system takes a farm-to-fork preventative approach to food safety and relies on the proactive collection and analysis of data to better understand potential hazards and risk factors, to design and evaluate interventions, and to prioritize prevention efforts. Such a system focuses limited resources at the points in the food system with the likelihood of having greatest benefit to public health. As shared kitchens, food hubs, and local food systems such as community supported agriculture are becoming more prevalent throughout the United States, so are foodborne illness outbreaks at these locations. At these locations, many with limited resources, food safety methods of prevention are rarely the main focus. This lack of focus on food safety knowledge is why a growing number of foodborne illness outbreaks are occurring at these locations.

Contributing factors to vehicle to vehicle crash frequency and severity under rainfall.

PubMed

Jung, Soyoung; Jang, Kitae; Yoon, Yoonjin; Kang, Sanghyeok

2014-09-01

This study combined vehicle to vehicle crash frequency and severity estimations to examine factor impacts on Wisconsin highway safety in rainy weather. Because of data deficiency, the real-time water film depth, the car-following distance, and the vertical curve grade were estimated with available data sources and a GIS analysis to capture rainy weather conditions at the crash location and time. Using a negative binomial regression for crash frequency estimation, the average annual daily traffic per lane, the interaction between the posted speed limit change and the existence of an off-ramp, and the interaction between the travel lane number change and the pavement surface material change were found to increase the likelihood of vehicle to vehicle crashes under rainfall. However, more average daily rainfall per month and a wider left shoulder were identified as factors that decrease the likelihood of vehicle to vehicle crashes. In the crash severity estimation using the multinomial logit model that outperformed the ordered logit model, the travel lane number, the interaction between the travel lane number and the slow grade, the deep water film, and the rear-end collision type were more likely to increase the likelihood of injury crashes under rainfall compared with crashes involving only property damage. As an exploratory data analysis, this study provides insight into potential strategies for rainy weather highway safety improvement, specifically, the following weather-sensitive strategies: road design and ITS implementation for drivers' safety awareness under rainfall. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of thermotherapy versus pentavalent antimonials for the treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis.

PubMed

Cardona-Arias, Jaiberth Antonio; López-Carvajal, Liliana; Tamayo Plata, Mery Patricia; Vélez, Iván Darío

2017-05-01

The treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis is toxic, has contraindications, and a high cost. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of thermotherapy versus pentavalent antimonials for the treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis. Effectiveness was the proportion of healing and safety with the adverse effects; these parameters were estimated from a controlled clinical trial and a meta-analysis. A standard costing was conducted. Average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated. The uncertainty regarding effectiveness, safety, and costs was determined through sensitivity analyses. The total costs were $66,807 with Glucantime and $14,079 with thermotherapy. The therapeutic effectiveness rates were 64.2% for thermotherapy and 85.1% for Glucantime. The average cost-effectiveness ratios ranged between $721 and $1275 for Glucantime and between $187 and $390 for thermotherapy. Based on the meta-analysis, thermotherapy may be a dominant strategy. The excellent cost-effectiveness ratio of thermotherapy shows the relevance of its inclusion in guidelines for the treatment. © 2017 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Finite mixture modeling approach for developing crash modification factors in highway safety analysis.

PubMed

Park, Byung-Jung; Lord, Dominique; Wu, Lingtao

2016-10-28

This study aimed to investigate the relative performance of two models (negative binomial (NB) model and two-component finite mixture of negative binomial models (FMNB-2)) in terms of developing crash modification factors (CMFs). Crash data on rural multilane divided highways in California and Texas were modeled with the two models, and crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were derived. The resultant CMFunction estimated from the FMNB-2 model showed several good properties over that from the NB model. First, the safety effect of a covariate was better reflected by the CMFunction developed using the FMNB-2 model, since the model takes into account the differential responsiveness of crash frequency to the covariate. Second, the CMFunction derived from the FMNB-2 model is able to capture nonlinear relationships between covariate and safety. Finally, following the same concept as those for NB models, the combined CMFs of multiple treatments were estimated using the FMNB-2 model. The results indicated that they are not the simple multiplicative of single ones (i.e., their safety effects are not independent under FMNB-2 models). Adjustment Factors (AFs) were then developed. It is revealed that current Highway Safety Manual's method could over- or under-estimate the combined CMFs under particular combination of covariates. Safety analysts are encouraged to consider using the FMNB-2 models for developing CMFs and AFs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of guidance for states transitioning to new safety analysis tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alluri, Priyanka

With about 125 people dying on US roads each day, the US Department of Transportation heightened the awareness of critical safety issues with the passage of SAFETEA-LU (Safe Accountable Flexible Efficient Transportation Equity Act---a Legacy for Users) legislation in 2005. The legislation required each of the states to develop a Strategic Highway Safety Plan (SHSP) and incorporate data-driven approaches to prioritize and evaluate program outcomes: Failure to do so resulted in funding sanctioning. In conjunction with the legislation, research efforts have also been progressing toward the development of new safety analysis tools such as IHSDM (Interactive Highway Safety Design Model), SafetyAnalyst, and HSM (Highway Safety Manual). These software and analysis tools are comparatively more advanced in statistical theory and level of accuracy, and have a tendency to be more data intensive. A review of the 2009 five-percent reports and excerpts from the nationwide survey revealed astonishing facts about the continuing use of traditional methods including crash frequencies and rates for site selection and prioritization. The intense data requirements and statistical complexity of advanced safety tools are considered as a hindrance to their adoption. In this context, this research aims at identifying the data requirements and data availability for SafetyAnalyst and HSM by working with both the tools. This research sets the stage for working with the Empirical Bayes approach by highlighting some of the biases and issues associated with the traditional methods of selecting projects such as greater emphasis on traffic volume and regression-to-mean phenomena. Further, the not-so-obvious issue with shorter segment lengths, which effect the results independent of the methods used, is also discussed. The more reliable and statistically acceptable Empirical Bayes methodology requires safety performance functions (SPFs), regression equations predicting the relation between crashes and exposure for a subset of roadway network. These SPFs, specific to a region and the analysis period are often unavailable. Calibration of already existing default national SPFs to the state's data could be a feasible solution, but, how well the state's data is represented is a legitimate question. With this background, SPFs were generated for various classifications of segments in Georgia and compared against the national default SPFs used in SafetyAnalyst calibrated to Georgia data. Dwelling deeper into the development of SPFs, the influence of actual and estimated traffic data on the fit of the equations is also studied questioning the accuracy and reliability of traffic estimations. In addition to SafetyAnalyst, HSM aims at performing quantitative safety analysis. Applying HSM methodology to two-way two-lane rural roads, the effect of using multiple CMFs (Crash Modification Factors) is studied. Lastly, data requirements, methodology, constraints, and results are compared between SafetyAnalyst and HSM.

Station Blackout: A case study in the interaction of mechanistic and probabilistic safety analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli; Cristian Rabiti

2013-11-01

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margins is important to improved decision making about nuclear power plant design, operation, and plant life extension. As research and development (R&D) in the light-water reactor (LWR) Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim tomore » improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario.« less

Reliability and safety, and the risk of construction damage in mining areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skrzypczak, Izabela; Kogut, Janusz P.; Kokoszka, Wanda; Oleniacz, Grzegorz

2018-04-01

This article concerns the reliability and safety of building structures in mining areas, with a particular emphasis on the quantitative risk analysis of buildings. The issues of threat assessment and risk estimation, in the design of facilities in mining exploitation areas, are presented here, indicating the difficulties and ambiguities associated with their quantification and quantitative analysis. This article presents the concept of quantitative risk assessment of the impact of mining exploitation, in accordance with ISO 13824 [1]. The risk analysis is illustrated through an example of a construction located within an area affected by mining exploitation.

Use of cultural consensus analysis to evaluate expert feedback of median safety.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-Gyu; Donnell, Eric T; Lee, Dongmin

2008-07-01

Cultural consensus analysis is a statistical method that can be used to assess participant responses to survey questions. The technique concurrently estimates the knowledge of each survey participant and estimates the culturally correct answer to each question asked, based on the existence of consensus among survey participants. The main objectives of this paper are to present the cultural consensus methodology and apply it to a set of median design and safety survey data that were collected using the Delphi method. A total of 21 Delphi survey participants were asked to answer research questions related to cross-median crashes. It was found that the Delphi panel had agreeable opinions with respect to the association of average daily traffic (ADT) and heavy vehicle percentage combination on the risk of cross-median crashes; relative importance of additional factors, other than ADT, median width, and crash history that may contribute to cross-median crashes; and, the relative importance of geometric factors that may be associated with the likelihood of cross-median crashes. Therefore, the findings from the cultural consensus analysis indicate that the expert panel selected to participate in the Delphi survey shared a common knowledge pool relative to the association between median design and safety. There were, however, diverse opinions regarding median barrier type and its preferred placement location. The panel showed a higher level of knowledge on the relative importance regarding the association of geometric factors on cross-median crashes likelihood than on other issues considered. The results of the cultural consensus analysis of the present median design and safety survey data could be used to design a focused field study of median safety.

78 FR 34101 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-06

... and basic descriptive statistics on the quantity and type of consumer-reported patient safety events... conduct correlations, cross tabulations of responses and other statistical analysis. Estimated Annual...

Integrated traffic conflict model for estimating crash modification factors.

PubMed

Shahdah, Usama; Saccomanno, Frank; Persaud, Bhagwant

2014-10-01

Crash modification factors (CMFs) for road safety treatments are usually obtained through observational models based on reported crashes. Observational Bayesian before-and-after methods have been applied to obtain more precise estimates of CMFs by accounting for the regression-to-the-mean bias inherent in naive methods. However, sufficient crash data reported over an extended period of time are needed to provide reliable estimates of treatment effects, a requirement that can be a challenge for certain types of treatment. In addition, these studies require that sites analyzed actually receive the treatment to which the CMF pertains. Another key issue with observational approaches is that they are not causal in nature, and as such, cannot provide a sound "behavioral" rationale for the treatment effect. Surrogate safety measures based on high risk vehicle interactions and traffic conflicts have been proposed to address this issue by providing a more "causal perspective" on lack of safety for different road and traffic conditions. The traffic conflict approach has been criticized, however, for lacking a formal link to observed and verified crashes, a difficulty that this paper attempts to resolve by presenting and investigating an alternative approach for estimating CMFs using simulated conflicts that are linked formally to observed crashes. The integrated CMF estimates are compared to estimates from an empirical Bayes (EB) crash-based before-and-after analysis for the same sample of treatment sites. The treatment considered involves changing left turn signal priority at Toronto signalized intersections from permissive to protected-permissive. The results are promising in that the proposed integrated method yields CMFs that closely match those obtained from the crash-based EB before-and-after analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems, and... upper bound, as estimated with a sensitivity analysis, and the risk value selected must be demonstrated... interconnected subsystems/components? The risk assessment of each safety-critical system (product) must account...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems, and... upper bound, as estimated with a sensitivity analysis, and the risk value selected must be demonstrated... interconnected subsystems/components? The risk assessment of each safety-critical system (product) must account...

Association of rear seat safety belt use with death in a traffic crash: a matched cohort study.

PubMed

Zhu, Motao; Cummings, Peter; Chu, Haitao; Cook, Lawrence J

2007-06-01

To estimate the association of rear seat safety belt use with death in a traffic crash. Matched cohort study. The US during 2000 through 2004. Drivers (10,427) and rear seat passengers (15,922) in passenger vehicles that crashed and had at least one driver or rear passenger death. Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. The adjusted relative risk (aRR) of death for a belted rear seat passenger compared with an otherwise similar unbelted rear passenger. Safety belt use was associated with a reduced risk of death for rear car occupants: outboard rear seat aRR 0.42 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.46), and center rear seat aRR 0.30 (95% CI 0.20 to 0.44). For rear occupants of light trucks, vans, and utility vehicles, the estimates were: outboard aRR 0.25 (95% CI 0.21 to 0.29), center aRR 0.34 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.48). If the authors' estimates are causal, traffic crash mortality can be reduced for rear occupants by approximately 55-75% if they use safety belts.

MO-F-16A-04: Case Study: Estimation of Peak Skin Dose Following a Physician Reported “High Dose” Case and Sentinel Event Considerations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Supanich, M; Chu, J; Wehmeyer, A

2014-06-15

Purpose: This work offers as a teaching example a reported high dose fluoroscopy case and the workflow the institution followed to self-report a radiation overdose sentinel event to the Joint Commission. Methods: Following the completion of a clinical case in a hybrid OR room with a reported air kerma of >18 Gy at the Interventional Reference Point (IRP) the physicians involved in the case referred study to the institution's Radiation Safety Committee (RSC) for review. The RSC assigned a Diagnostic Medical Physicist (DMP) to estimate the patient's Peak Skin Dose (PSD) and analyze the case. Following the DMP's analysis andmore » estimate of a PSD of >15 Gy the institution's adverse event committee was convened to discuss the case and to self-report the case as a radiation overdose sentinel event to the Joint Commission. The committee assigned a subgroup to perform the root cause analysis and develop institutional responses to the event. Results: The self-reporting of the sentinel event and the associated root cause analysis resulted in several institutional action items that are designed to improve process and safety. A formal reporting and analysis mechanism was adopted to review fluoroscopy cases with air kerma greater than 6 Gy at the IRP. An improved and formalized radiation safety training program for physicians using fluoroscopy equipment was implemented. Additionally efforts already under way to monitor radiation exposure in the Radiology department were expanded to include all fluoroscopy equipment capable of automated dose reporting. Conclusion: The adverse event review process and the root cause analysis following the self-reporting of the sentinel event resulted in policies and procedures that are expected to improve the quality and safe usage of fluoroscopy throughout the institution.« less

An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

2003-09-01

This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

Estimating and controlling workplace risk: an approach for occupational hygiene and safety professionals.

PubMed

Toffel, Michael W; Birkner, Lawrence R

2002-07-01

The protection of people and physical assets is the objective of health and safety professionals and is accomplished through the paradigm of anticipation, recognition, evaluation, and control of risks in the occupational environment. Risk assessment concepts are not only used by health and safety professionals, but also by business and financial planners. Since meeting health and safety objectives requires financial resources provided by business and governmental managers, the hypothesis addressed here is that health and safety risk decisions should be made with probabilistic processes used in financial decision-making and which are familiar and recognizable to business and government planners and managers. This article develops the processes and demonstrates the use of incident probabilities, historic outcome information, and incremental impact analysis to estimate risk of multiple alternatives in the chemical process industry. It also analyzes how the ethical aspects of decision-making can be addressed in formulating health and safety risk management plans. It is concluded that certain, easily understood, and applied probabilistic risk assessment methods used by business and government to assess financial and outcome risk have applicability to improving workplace health and safety in three ways: 1) by linking the business and health and safety risk assessment processes to securing resources, 2) by providing an additional set of tools for health and safety risk assessment, and 3) by requiring the risk assessor to consider multiple risk management alternatives.

Nonoccupant Fatalities Associated with Backing Crashes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-02-01

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's National Center for Statistics : and Analysis (NCSA) recently completed a study of data from the National Center : Health Statistics (NCHS) to obtain an estimate of the number of nonoccupant : fataliti...

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thipphavong, David

2010-01-01

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Integrated risk assessment and screening analysis of drinking water safety of a conventional water supply system.

PubMed

Sun, F; Chen, J; Tong, Q; Zeng, S

2007-01-01

Management of drinking water safety is changing towards an integrated risk assessment and risk management approach that includes all processes in a water supply system from catchment to consumers. However, given the large number of water supply systems in China and the cost of implementing such a risk assessment procedure, there is a necessity to first conduct a strategic screening analysis at a national level. An integrated methodology of risk assessment and screening analysis is thus proposed to evaluate drinking water safety of a conventional water supply system. The violation probability, indicating drinking water safety, is estimated at different locations of a water supply system in terms of permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, turbidity, residual chlorine and trihalomethanes. Critical parameters with respect to drinking water safety are then identified, based on which an index system is developed to prioritize conventional water supply systems in implementing a detailed risk assessment procedure. The evaluation results are represented as graphic check matrices for the concerned hazards in drinking water, from which the vulnerability of a conventional water supply system is characterized.

Guidance on health effects of toxic chemicals. Safety Analysis Report Update Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foust, C.B.; Griffin, G.D.; Munro, N.B.

1994-02-01

Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. (MMES), and Martin Marietta Utility Services, Inc. (MMUS), are engaged in phased programs to update the safety documentation for the existing US Department of Energy (DOE)-owned facilities. The safety analysis of potential toxic hazards requires a methodology for evaluating human health effects of predicted toxic exposures. This report provides a consistent set of health effects and documents toxicity estimates corresponding to these health effects for some of the more important chemicals found within MMES and MMUS. The estimates are based on published toxicity information and apply to acute exposures for an ``average`` individual. The healthmore » effects (toxicological endpoints) used in this report are (1) the detection threshold; (2) the no-observed adverse effect level; (3) the onset of irritation/reversible effects; (4) the onset of irreversible effects; and (5) a lethal exposure, defined to be the 50% lethal level. An irreversible effect is defined as a significant effect on a person`s quality of life, e.g., serious injury. Predicted consequences are evaluated on the basis of concentration and exposure time.« less

Reliability considerations for the total strain range version of strainrange partitioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wirsching, P. H.; Wu, Y. T.

1984-01-01

A proposed total strainrange version of strainrange partitioning (SRP) to enhance the manner in which SRP is applied to life prediction is considered with emphasis on how advanced reliability technology can be applied to perform risk analysis and to derive safety check expressions. Uncertainties existing in the design factors associated with life prediction of a component which experiences the combined effects of creep and fatigue can be identified. Examples illustrate how reliability analyses of such a component can be performed when all design factors in the SRP model are random variables reflecting these uncertainties. The Rackwitz-Fiessler and Wu algorithms are used and estimates of the safety index and the probablity of failure are demonstrated for a SRP problem. Methods of analysis of creep-fatigue data with emphasis on procedures for producing synoptic statistics are presented. An attempt to demonstrate the importance of the contribution of the uncertainties associated with small sample sizes (fatique data) to risk estimates is discussed. The procedure for deriving a safety check expression for possible use in a design criteria document is presented.

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Reliability/safety analysis of a fly-by-wire system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brock, L. D.; Goddman, H. A.

1980-01-01

An analysis technique has been developed to estimate the reliability of a very complex, safety-critical system by constructing a diagram of the reliability equations for the total system. This diagram has many of the characteristics of a fault-tree or success-path diagram, but is much easier to construct for complex redundant systems. The diagram provides insight into system failure characteristics and identifies the most likely failure modes. A computer program aids in the construction of the diagram and the computation of reliability. Analysis of the NASA F-8 Digital Fly-by-Wire Flight Control System is used to illustrate the technique.

Preliminary Results Obtained in Integrated Safety Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.

2003-01-01

The goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to develop and demonstrate technologies that contribute to a reduction in the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of 5 by the year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by the year 2022. Integrated safety analysis of day-to-day operations and risks within those operations will provide an understanding of the Aviation Safety Program portfolio. Safety benefits analyses are currently being conducted. Preliminary results for the Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) and Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) projects of the AvSP have been completed by the Logistics Management Institute under a contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. These analyses include both a reliability analysis and a computer simulation model. The integrated safety analysis method comprises two principal components: a reliability model and a simulation model. In the reliability model, the results indicate how different technologies and systems will perform in normal, degraded, and failed modes of operation. In the simulation, an operational scenario is modeled. The primary purpose of the SVS project is to improve safety by providing visual-flightlike situation awareness during instrument conditions. The current analyses are an estimate of the benefits of SVS in avoiding controlled flight into terrain. The scenario modeled has an aircraft flying directly toward a terrain feature. When the flight crew determines that the aircraft is headed toward an obstruction, the aircraft executes a level turn at speed. The simulation is ended when the aircraft completes the turn.

Accident analysis and control options in support of the sludge water system safety analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HEY, B.E.

A hazards analysis was initiated for the SWS in July 2001 (SNF-8626, K Basin Sludge and Water System Preliminary Hazard Analysis) and updated in December 2001 (SNF-10020 Rev. 0, Hazard Evaluation for KE Sludge and Water System - Project A16) based on conceptual design information for the Sludge Retrieval System (SRS) and 60% design information for the cask and container. SNF-10020 was again revised in September 2002 to incorporate new hazards identified from final design information and from a What-if/Checklist evaluation of operational steps. The process hazards, controls, and qualitative consequence and frequency estimates taken from these efforts have beenmore » incorporated into Revision 5 of HNF-3960, K Basins Hazards Analysis. The hazards identification process documented in the above referenced reports utilized standard industrial safety techniques (AIChE 1992, Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures) to systematically guide several interdisciplinary teams through the system using a pre-established set of process parameters (e.g., flow, temperature, pressure) and guide words (e.g., high, low, more, less). The teams generally included representation from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), K Basins Nuclear Safety, T Plant Nuclear Safety, K Basin Industrial Safety, fire protection, project engineering, operations, and facility engineering.« less

Applicability and feasibility of systematic review for performing evidence-based risk assessment in food and feed safety.

PubMed

Aiassa, E; Higgins, J P T; Frampton, G K; Greiner, M; Afonso, A; Amzal, B; Deeks, J; Dorne, J-L; Glanville, J; Lövei, G L; Nienstedt, K; O'connor, A M; Pullin, A S; Rajić, A; Verloo, D

2015-01-01

Food and feed safety risk assessment uses multi-parameter models to evaluate the likelihood of adverse events associated with exposure to hazards in human health, plant health, animal health, animal welfare, and the environment. Systematic review and meta-analysis are established methods for answering questions in health care, and can be implemented to minimize biases in food and feed safety risk assessment. However, no methodological frameworks exist for refining risk assessment multi-parameter models into questions suitable for systematic review, and use of meta-analysis to estimate all parameters required by a risk model may not be always feasible. This paper describes novel approaches for determining question suitability and for prioritizing questions for systematic review in this area. Risk assessment questions that aim to estimate a parameter are likely to be suitable for systematic review. Such questions can be structured by their "key elements" [e.g., for intervention questions, the population(s), intervention(s), comparator(s), and outcome(s)]. Prioritization of questions to be addressed by systematic review relies on the likely impact and related uncertainty of individual parameters in the risk model. This approach to planning and prioritizing systematic review seems to have useful implications for producing evidence-based food and feed safety risk assessment.

A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

PubMed

Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

2015-07-01

Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of safety culture vary across the intensive care units of a single institution.

PubMed

Huang, David T; Clermont, Gilles; Sexton, J Bryan; Karlo, Crystal A; Miller, Rachel G; Weissfeld, Lisa A; Rowan, Kathy M; Angus, Derek C

2007-01-01

To determine whether safety culture factors varied across the intensive care units (ICUs) of a single hospital, between nurses and physicians, and to explore ICU nursing directors' perceptions of their personnel's attitudes. Cross-sectional surveys using the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire-ICU version, a validated, aviation industry-based safety culture survey instrument. It assesses culture across six factors: teamwork climate, perceptions of management, safety climate, stress recognition, job satisfaction, and work environment. Four ICUs in one tertiary care hospital. All ICU personnel. We conducted the survey from January 1 to April 1, 2003, and achieved a 70.2% response rate (318 of 453). We calculated safety culture factor mean and percent-positive scores (percentage of respondents with a mean score of > or =75 on a 0-100 scale for which 100 is best) for each ICU. We compared mean ICU scores by ANOVA and percent-positive scores by chi-square. Mean and percent-positive scores by job category were modeled using a generalized estimating equations approach and compared using Wald statistics. We asked ICU nursing directors to estimate their personnel's mean scores and generated ratios of their estimates to the actual scores.Overall, factor scores were low to moderate across all factors (range across ICUs: 43.4-74.9 mean scores, 8.6-69.4 percent positive). Mean and percent-positive scores differed significantly (p < .0083, Bonferroni correction) across ICUs, except for stress recognition, which was uniformly low. Compared with physicians, nurses had significantly lower mean working conditions and perceptions of management scores. ICU nursing directors tended to overestimate their personnel's attitudes. This was greatest for teamwork, for which all director estimates exceeded actual scores, with a mean overestimate of 16%. Significant safety culture variation exists across ICUs of a single hospital. ICU nursing directors tend to overestimate their personnel's attitudes, particularly for teamwork. Culture assessments based on institutional level analysis or director opinion may be flawed.

Identification of Behavior Based Safety by Using Traffic Light Analysis to Reduce Accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansur, A.; Nasution, M. I.

2016-01-01

This work present the safety assessment of a case study and describes an important area within the field production in oil and gas industry, namely behavior based safety (BBS). The company set a rigorous BBS and its intervention program that implemented and deployed continually. In this case, observers requested to have discussion and spread a number of determined questions related with work behavior to the workers during observation. Appraisal of Traffic Light Analysis (TLA) as one tools of risk assessment used to determine the estimated score of BBS questionnaire. Standardization of TLA appraisal in this study are based on Regulation of Minister of Labor and Occupational Safety and Health No:PER.05/MEN/1996. The result shown that there are some points under 84%, which categorized in yellow category and should corrected immediately by company to prevent existing bad behavior of workers. The application of BBS expected to increase the safety performance at work time-by-time and effective in reducing accidents.

Analysis of longitudinal laboratory data in the presence of common selection mechanisms: a view toward greater emphasis on pre-marketing pharmaceutical safety.

PubMed

Schildcrout, Jonathan S; Jenkins, Cathy A; Ostroff, Jack H; Gillen, Daniel L; Harrell, Frank E; Trost, Donald C

2008-05-30

Pharmaceutical safety has received substantial attention in the recent past; however, longitudinal clinical laboratory data routinely collected during clinical trials to derive safety profiles are often used ineffectively. For example, these data are frequently summarized by comparing proportions (between treatment arms) of participants who cross pre-specified threshold values at some time during follow-up. This research is intended, in part, to encourage more effective utilization of these data by avoiding unnecessary dichotomization of continuous data, acknowledging and making use of the longitudinal follow-up, and combining data from multiple clinical trials. However, appropriate analyses require careful consideration of a number of challenges (e.g. selection, comparability of study populations, etc.). We discuss estimation strategies based on estimating equations and maximum likelihood for analyses in the presence of three response history-dependent selection mechanisms: dropout, follow-up frequency, and treatment discontinuation. In addition, because clinical trials' participants usually represent non-random samples from target populations, we describe two sensitivity analysis approaches. All discussions are motivated by an analysis that aims to characterize the dynamic relationship between concentrations of a liver enzyme (alanine aminotransferase) and three distinct doses (no drug, low dose, and high dose) of an nk-1 antagonist across four Phase II clinical trials.

Analysis of lane change crashes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-03-01

This report defines the problem of lane change crashes in the United States (U.S.) based on data from the 1999 National Automotive Sampling System/General Estimates System (GES) crash database of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Th...

Instrumental variable methods in comparative safety and effectiveness research.

PubMed

Brookhart, M Alan; Rassen, Jeremy A; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2010-06-01

Instrumental variable (IV) methods have been proposed as a potential approach to the common problem of uncontrolled confounding in comparative studies of medical interventions, but IV methods are unfamiliar to many researchers. The goal of this article is to provide a non-technical, practical introduction to IV methods for comparative safety and effectiveness research. We outline the principles and basic assumptions necessary for valid IV estimation, discuss how to interpret the results of an IV study, provide a review of instruments that have been used in comparative effectiveness research, and suggest some minimal reporting standards for an IV analysis. Finally, we offer our perspective of the role of IV estimation vis-à-vis more traditional approaches based on statistical modeling of the exposure or outcome. We anticipate that IV methods will be often underpowered for drug safety studies of very rare outcomes, but may be potentially useful in studies of intended effects where uncontrolled confounding may be substantial.

Reliability of digital reactor protection system based on extenics.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; He, Ya-Nan; Gu, Peng-Fei; Chen, Wei-Hua; Gao, Feng

2016-01-01

After the Fukushima nuclear accident, safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is widespread concerned. The reliability of reactor protection system (RPS) is directly related to the safety of NPPs, however, it is difficult to accurately evaluate the reliability of digital RPS. The method is based on estimating probability has some uncertainties, which can not reflect the reliability status of RPS dynamically and support the maintenance and troubleshooting. In this paper, the reliability quantitative analysis method based on extenics is proposed for the digital RPS (safety-critical), by which the relationship between the reliability and response time of RPS is constructed. The reliability of the RPS for CPR1000 NPP is modeled and analyzed by the proposed method as an example. The results show that the proposed method is capable to estimate the RPS reliability effectively and provide support to maintenance and troubleshooting of digital RPS system.

Cost-outcome analysis in injury prevention and control: eighty-four recent estimates for the United States.

PubMed

Miller, T R; Levy, D T

2000-06-01

The objectives of this study were to review cost-outcome analyses in injury prevention and control and estimate associated benefit-cost ratios and cost per quality-adjusted life-year. Medline and Internet search, bibliographic review, and federal agency contacts identified published and unpublished studies from 1987 to 1998 for the United States. Studies of low quality and analyses of occupational, air, rail, and water transport safety programs were excluded. Selected results were recomputed to increase discount rate, benefit category, and benefit estimate comparability and to update injury incidence rates. More than half of the 84 injury prevention measures reviewed yielded net societal cost savings. Twelve measures had costs that exceeded benefits. Of 33 road safety measures analyzed, 19 yielded net cost savings. Of 34 violence prevention approaches studied, 19 yielded net cost savings, whereas 8 had costs that exceeded benefits. Interventions with the highest benefit-cost ratios included juvenile delinquent therapy programs, fire-safe cigarettes, federal road and traffic safety program funding, lane markers painted on roads, post-mounted reflectors on hazardous curves, safety belts in front seats, safety belt laws with primary enforcement, child safety seats, child bicycle helmets, enforcement of laws against serving alcohol to the intoxicated, substance abuse treatment, brief medical interventions with heavy drinkers, and a comprehensive safe communities program in a low-income neighborhood. Studies of cost-saving measures do not exist for several injury types. Injury prevention often can reduce medical costs and save lives. Wider implementation of proven measures is warranted.

Wyoming Low-Volume Roads Traffic Volume Estimation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-10-01

Low-volume roads are excluded from regular traffic counts except on a need to know basis. But needs for traffic volume data on low-volume roads in road infrastructure management, safety, and air quality analysis have necessitated regular traffic volu...

Assessment of the safety benefits of vehicles' advanced driver assistance, connectivity and low level automation systems.

PubMed

Yue, Lishengsa; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wu, Yina; Wang, Ling

2018-08-01

The Connected Vehicle (CV) technologies together with other Driving Assistance (DA) technologies are believed to have great effects on traffic operation and safety, and they are expected to impact the future of our cities. However, few research has estimated the exact safety benefits when all vehicles are equipped with these technologies. This paper seeks to fill the gap by using a general crash avoidance effectiveness framework for major CV&DA technologies to make a comprehensive crash reduction estimation. Twenty technologies that were tested in recent studies are summarized and sensitivity analysis is used for estimating their total crash avoidance effectiveness. The results show that crash avoidance effectiveness of CV&DA technology is significantly affected by the vehicle type and the safety estimation methodology. A 70% crash avoidance rate seems to be the highest effectiveness for the CV&DA technologies operating in the real-world environment. Based on the 2005-2008 U.S. GES Crash Records, this research found that the CV&DA technologies could lead to the reduction of light vehicles' crashes and heavy trucks' crashes by at least 32.99% and 40.88%, respectively. The rear-end crashes for both light vehicles and heavy trucks have the most expected crash benefits from the technologies. The paper also studies the effectiveness of Forward Collision Warning technology (FCW) under fog conditions, and the results show that FCW could reduce 35% of the near-crash events under fog conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relating crash frequency and severity: evaluating the effectiveness of shoulder rumble strips on reducing fatal and major injury crashes.

PubMed

Wu, Kun-Feng; Donnell, Eric T; Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2014-06-01

To approach the goal of "Toward Zero Deaths," there is a need to develop an analysis paradigm to better understand the effects of a countermeasure on reducing the number of severe crashes. One of the goals in traffic safety research is to search for an effective treatment to reduce fatal and major injury crashes, referred to as severe crashes. To achieve this goal, the selection of promising countermeasures is of utmost importance, and relies on the effectiveness of candidate countermeasures in reducing severe crashes. Although it is important to precisely evaluate the effectiveness of candidate countermeasures in reducing the number of severe crashes at a site, the current state-of-the-practice often leads to biased estimates. While there have been a few advanced statistical models developed to mitigate the problem in practice, these models are computationally difficult to estimate because severe crashes are dispersed spatially and temporally, and cannot be integrated into the Highway Safety Manual framework, which develops a series of safety performance functions and crash modification factors to predict the number of crashes. Crash severity outcomes are generally integrated into the Highway Safety Manual using deterministic distributions rather than statistical models. Accounting for the variability in crash severity as a function geometric design, traffic flow, and other roadway and roadside features is afforded by estimating statistical models. Therefore, there is a need to develop a new analysis paradigm to resolve the limitations in the current Highway Safety Manual methods. We propose an approach which decomposes the severe crash frequency into a function of the change in the total number of crashes and the probability of a crash becoming a severe crash before and after a countermeasure is implemented. We tested this approach by evaluating the effectiveness of shoulder rumble strips on reducing the number of severe crashes. A total of 310 segments that have had shoulder rumble strips installed during 2002-2009 are included in the analysis. It was found that shoulder rumble strips reduce the total number of crashes, but have no statistically significant effect on reducing the probability of a severe crash outcome. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Possible consequences of regionally based bundled payments for diabetic amputations for safety net hospitals in Texas.

PubMed

Newhall, Karina; Stone, David; Svoboda, Ryan; Goodney, Philip

2016-12-01

Ongoing health reform in the United States encourages quality-based reimbursement methods such as bundled payments for surgery. The effect of such changes on high-risk procedures is unknown, especially at safety net hospitals. This study quantified the burden of diabetes-related amputation and the potential financial effect of bundled payments at safety net hospitals in Texas. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of diabetic amputation burden and charges using publically available data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid and the Texas Department of Health from 2008 to 2012. Using hospital referral region (HRR)-level analysis, we categorized the proportion of safety net hospitals within each region as very low (0%-9%), low (10%-20%), average (20%-33%), and high (>33%) and compared amputation rates across regions using nonparametric tests of trend. We then used charge data to create reimbursement rates based on HRR to estimate financial losses. We identified 51 adult hospitals as safety nets in Texas. Regions varied in the proportion of safety net hospitals from 0% in Victoria to 65% in Harlingen. Among beneficiaries aged >65, amputation rates correlated to the proportion of safety net hospitals in each region; for example, patients in the lowest quartile of safety net had a yearly rate of 300 amputations per 100,000 beneficiaries, whereas those in the highest quartile had a yearly rate of 472 per 100,000 (P = .007). Charges for diabetic amputation-related admissions varied almost 200-fold, from $5000 to $1.4 million. Using reimbursement based on HRR to estimate a bundled payment, we noted net losses would be higher at safety net vs nonsafety net hospitals ($180 million vs $163 million), representing a per-hospital loss of $1.6 million at safety nets vs $700,000 at nonsafety nets (P < .001). Regions with a high proportion of safety net hospitals perform almost half of the diabetic amputations in Texas. Changes to traditional payment models should account for the disproportionate burden of high-risk procedures performed by these hospitals. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Selecting Strategies to Reduce High-Risk Unsafe Work Behaviors Using the Safety Behavior Sampling Technique and Bayesian Network Analysis.

PubMed

Ghasemi, Fakhradin; Kalatpour, Omid; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-03-04

High-risk unsafe behaviors (HRUBs) have been known as the main cause of occupational accidents. Considering the financial and societal costs of accidents and the limitations of available resources, there is an urgent need for managing unsafe behaviors at workplaces. The aim of the present study was to find strategies for decreasing the rate of HRUBs using an integrated approach of safety behavior sampling technique and Bayesian networks analysis. A cross-sectional study. The Bayesian network was constructed using a focus group approach. The required data was collected using the safety behavior sampling, and the parameters of the network were estimated using Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Using sensitivity analysis and belief updating, it was determined that which factors had the highest influences on unsafe behavior. Based on BN analyses, safety training was the most important factor influencing employees' behavior at the workplace. High quality safety training courses can reduce the rate of HRUBs about 10%. Moreover, the rate of HRUBs increased by decreasing the age of employees. The rate of HRUBs was higher in the afternoon and last days of a week. Among the investigated variables, training was the most important factor affecting safety behavior of employees. By holding high quality safety training courses, companies would be able to reduce the rate of HRUBs significantly.

Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2004-2011 Passenger Cars and LTVs” (LBNL Phase 1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom P.

In its 2012 report NHTSA simulated the effect four fleetwide mass reduction scenarios would have on the change in annual fatalities. NHTSA estimated that the most aggressive of these scenarios (reducing mass 5.2% in heavier light trucks and 2.6% in all other vehicles types except lighter cars) would result in a small reduction in societal fatalities. LBNL replicated the methodology NHTSA used to simulate six mass reduction scenarios, including the mass reductions recommended in the 2015 NRC committee report, and estimated in 2021 and 2025 by EPA in the TAR, using the updated data through 2012. The analysis indicates thatmore » the estimated x change in fatalities under each scenario based on the updated analysis is comparable to that in the 2012 analysis, but less beneficial or more detrimental than that in the 2016 analysis. For example, an across the board 100-lb reduction in mass would result in an estimated 157 additional annual fatalities based on the 2012 analysis, but would result in only an estimated 91 additional annual fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, and an additional 87 fatalities based on the current analysis. The mass reductions recommended by the 2015 NRC committee report6 would result in a 224 increase in annual fatalities in the 2012 analysis, a 344 decrease in annual fatalities in the 2016 analysis, and a 141 increase in fatalities in the current analysis. The mass reductions EPA estimated for 2025 in the TAR7 would result in a 203 decrease in fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, but an increase of 39 fatalities based on the current analysis. These results support NHTSA’s conclusion from its 2012 study that, when footprint is held fixed, “no judicious combination of mass reductions in the various classes of vehicles results in a statistically significant fatality increase and many potential combinations are safety-neutral as point estimates.”Like the previous NHTSA studies, this updated report concludes that the estimated effect of mass reduction while maintaining footprint on societal U.S. fatality risk is small, and not statistically significant at the 95% or 90% confidence level for all vehicle types based on the jack-knife method NHTSA used. This report also finds that the estimated effects of other control variables, such as vehicle type, specific safety technologies, and crash conditions such as whether the crash occurred at night, in a rural county, or on a high-speed road, on risk are much larger, in some cases two orders of magnitude larger, than the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, this report shows that after accounting for the many vehicle, driver, and crash variables NHTSA used in its regression analyses, there remains a wide variation in risk by vehicle make and model, and this variation is unrelated to vehicle mass. Although the purpose of the NHTSA and LBNL reports is to estimate the effect of vehicle mass reduction on societal risk, this is not exactly what the regression models are estimating. Rather, they are estimating the recent historical relationship between mass and risk, after accounting for most measurable differences between vehicles, drivers, and crash times and locations. In essence, the regression models are comparing the risk of a 2600-lb Dodge Neon with that of a 2500-lb Honda Civic, after attempting to account for all other differences between the two vehicles. The models are not estimating the effect of literally removing 100 pounds from the Neon, leaving everything else unchanged. In addition, the analyses are based on the relationship of vehicle mass and footprint on risk for recent vehicle designs (model year 2004 to 2011). These relationships may or may not continue into the future as manufacturers utilize new vehicle designs and incorporate new technologies, such as more extensive use of strong lightweight materials and specific safety technologies. Therefore, throughout this report we use the phrase “the estimated effect of mass (or footprint) reduction on risk” as shorthand for “the estimated change in risk as a function of its relationship to mass (or footprint) for vehicle models of recent design.”« less

Integration of Active and Passive Safety Technologies--A Method to Study and Estimate Field Capability.

PubMed

Hu, Jingwen; Flannagan, Carol A; Bao, Shan; McCoy, Robert W; Siasoco, Kevin M; Barbat, Saeed

2015-11-01

The objective of this study is to develop a method that uses a combination of field data analysis, naturalistic driving data analysis, and computational simulations to explore the potential injury reduction capabilities of integrating passive and active safety systems in frontal impact conditions. For the purposes of this study, the active safety system is actually a driver assist (DA) feature that has the potential to reduce delta-V prior to a crash, in frontal or other crash scenarios. A field data analysis was first conducted to estimate the delta-V distribution change based on an assumption of 20% crash avoidance resulting from a pre-crash braking DA feature. Analysis of changes in driver head location during 470 hard braking events in a naturalistic driving study found that drivers' head positions were mostly in the center position before the braking onset, while the percentage of time drivers leaning forward or backward increased significantly after the braking onset. Parametric studies with a total of 4800 MADYMO simulations showed that both delta-V and occupant pre-crash posture had pronounced effects on occupant injury risks and on the optimal restraint designs. By combining the results for the delta-V and head position distribution changes, a weighted average of injury risk reduction of 17% and 48% was predicted by the 50th percentile Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) model and human body model, respectively, with the assumption that the restraint system can adapt to the specific delta-V and pre-crash posture. This study demonstrated the potential for further reducing occupant injury risk in frontal crashes by the integration of a passive safety system with a DA feature. Future analyses considering more vehicle models, various crash conditions, and variations of occupant characteristics, such as age, gender, weight, and height, are necessary to further investigate the potential capability of integrating passive and DA or active safety systems.

Radioactive dispersion analysis for hypothetical nuclear power plant (NPP) candidate site in Perak state, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamsuddin, Shazmeen Daniar; Basri, Nor Afifah; Omar, Nurlyana; Koh, Meng-Hock; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Saridan Wan Hassan, Wan Muhamad

2017-10-01

Malaysia is planning to build a nuclear power plant (NPP) by 2030 to diversify the national electricity supply and resources. Selection of an NPP site must consider various factors, especially nuclear safety consideration to fulfil the nuclear safety objectives. Environmental Risk Assessment Analysis is a part of safety requirements by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) prior to the NPP commissioning process. Risk Assessments Analysis (RIA) is compulsory for the NPP site evaluation. One of RIA methods are Radioactive Dispersion Analysis using probabilistic risk analysis software. It is also important to perform studies to estimate the impact to the neighbouring population in the case of a nuclear accident at the power plant. In the present work, aimed to study the impact of a hypothetical nuclear accident by simulating the dispersion pattern of radionuclides originated from a candidate site at Manjung, Perak. The work has been performed using the HotSpot Health Physics codes. Two types of radionuclides have been considered namely 137Cs and 131I. In calculations, the initial concentration of radioactive materials of Fukushima Daiichi accident data are used which are 2.06 x 1016 Bq and 1.68 x 1017 Bq respectively for the two radionuclides. The result shows that the dispersion distance obtained from both software are not the same. It shows that 137Cs and 131I can be dispersed as far as 16 km and 80 km away from the site during radiological accident respectively, reaching major towns in Perak. Using HOTSPOT, the estimated total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) for 137Cs and 131I at major towns in Perak such as Lumut and Sitiawan are 1.2 mSv and 9.9 mSv. As for Taiping, Ipoh, Kampar, and Teluk Intan the estimated TEDE is around 0.2 mSv and 1.6 mSv respectively. In conclusion, the dispersion can reach as far as 80 km from the site. However, estimated annual effective dose is not more than 1 mSv limit, which is considered acceptable in the point of view of radiological health risk for human and the environment.

Modeling work zone crash frequency by quantifying measurement errors in work zone length.

PubMed

Yang, Hong; Ozbay, Kaan; Ozturk, Ozgur; Yildirimoglu, Mehmet

2013-06-01

Work zones are temporary traffic control zones that can potentially cause safety problems. Maintaining safety, while implementing necessary changes on roadways, is an important challenge traffic engineers and researchers have to confront. In this study, the risk factors in work zone safety evaluation were identified through the estimation of a crash frequency (CF) model. Measurement errors in explanatory variables of a CF model can lead to unreliable estimates of certain parameters. Among these, work zone length raises a major concern in this analysis because it may change as the construction schedule progresses generally without being properly documented. This paper proposes an improved modeling and estimation approach that involves the use of a measurement error (ME) model integrated with the traditional negative binomial (NB) model. The proposed approach was compared with the traditional NB approach. Both models were estimated using a large dataset that consists of 60 work zones in New Jersey. Results showed that the proposed improved approach outperformed the traditional approach in terms of goodness-of-fit statistics. Moreover it is shown that the use of the traditional NB approach in this context can lead to the overestimation of the effect of work zone length on the crash occurrence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unions, Health and Safety Committees, and Workplace Accidents in the Korean Manufacturing Sector.

PubMed

Kim, Woo-Yung; Cho, Hm-Hak

2016-06-01

Despite the declining trend of workplace accidents in Republic of Korea, its level is still quite high compared with that in other developed countries. Factors that are responsible for high workplace accidents have not been well documented in Republic of Korea. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of unions and health and safety committees on workplace accidents in Korean manufacturing firms. We also allow for the interactions between unions and health and safety committees in the analysis. The results obtained in this paper will not only contribute to the literature in this field, but might also be useful for employers and worker representatives who are trying to find an effective way to reduce workplace accidents. This paper utilizes the 2012 Occupational Safety and Health Trend Survey data, which is a unique data set providing information on workplace injuries and illness as well as other characteristics of participatory firms, representative of the manufacturing industry in Republic of Korea. In estimating the effects of unions and health and safety committees, we build a negative binomial regression model in which the interactions between unions and health and safety committees are permissible in reducing workplace accidents. Health and safety committees were found to reduce the incidence of accidents whereas unionized establishments have higher incidence of accidents than nonunionized establishments. We also found that health and safety committees can more effectively reduce accidents in nonunionized establishments. By contrast, nonexclusive joint committees can more effectively reduce accidents in unionized establishments.

Preventing necrotizing enterocolitis by food additives in neonates: A network meta-analysis revealing the efficacy and safety.

PubMed

Yu, Wentao; Sui, Wu; Mu, Linsong; Yi, Wenying; Li, Haijuan; Wei, Liqin; Yin, Weihong

2017-05-01

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a serious multifactorial gastrointestinal disease which is often discovered in premature infants. Various additives have been used to prevent NEC; yet, their relative efficacy and safety remain disputed. This study aims to compare the efficacy and safety of 5 food additives, namely, probiotics, probiotics + fructo-oligosaccharides, pentoxifylline, arginine, and lactoferrin in preventing NEC in neonates. Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane Library had been searched for all eligible randomized control trials. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated for dichotomous data and mean differences with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were estimated for continuous data. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve was used to rank efficacy and safety of the prevention methods on each endpoint. A total of 27 eligible studies with 4649 preterm infants were included in this network meta-analysis (NMA), and the efficacy and safety of 5 food additives were evaluated. Probiotic and arginine exhibited better preventive efficacy compared with placebo (OR = 0.50, 95% CrIs: 0.32-0.73; OR = 0.30, 95% CrIs: 0.12-0.73, respectively). Only probiotic achieved a considerable decrease in the risk of mortality compared to placebo (OR = 0.68, 95% CrIs: 0.46-0.98). NEC patients with lactoferrin appeared to have lower incidence of sepsis than those of placebo (OR = 0.13, 95% CrIs: 0.03-0.61) or probiotic (OR = 0.18, 95% CrIs: 0.03-0.83). Based on this NMA, probiotics had the potential to be the most preferable additive, since it exhibited a significant superiority for NEC and mortality as well as a relatively balanced performance in safety.

Fatalities Associated with Carbon Monoxide Poisoning from Motor Vehicles in 1993

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-12-01

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's National Center for Statistics : and Analysis (NCSA) recently completed a study of data from the National Center : for Health Statistics (NCHS) to obtain an estimate of the number of persons : killed a...

Measuring the effects of aborted takeoffs and landings on traffic flow at JFK

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-14

The FAA Office of Accident Investigation and Prevention (AVP) supports research, analysis and demonstration of quantitative air traffic analyses to estimate safety performance and benefits of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). T...

Bayesian road safety analysis: incorporation of past evidence and effect of hyper-prior choice.

PubMed

Miranda-Moreno, Luis F; Heydari, Shahram; Lord, Dominique; Fu, Liping

2013-09-01

This paper aims to address two related issues when applying hierarchical Bayesian models for road safety analysis, namely: (a) how to incorporate available information from previous studies or past experiences in the (hyper) prior distributions for model parameters and (b) what are the potential benefits of incorporating past evidence on the results of a road safety analysis when working with scarce accident data (i.e., when calibrating models with crash datasets characterized by a very low average number of accidents and a small number of sites). A simulation framework was developed to evaluate the performance of alternative hyper-priors including informative and non-informative Gamma, Pareto, as well as Uniform distributions. Based on this simulation framework, different data scenarios (i.e., number of observations and years of data) were defined and tested using crash data collected at 3-legged rural intersections in California and crash data collected for rural 4-lane highway segments in Texas. This study shows how the accuracy of model parameter estimates (inverse dispersion parameter) is considerably improved when incorporating past evidence, in particular when working with the small number of observations and crash data with low mean. The results also illustrates that when the sample size (more than 100 sites) and the number of years of crash data is relatively large, neither the incorporation of past experience nor the choice of the hyper-prior distribution may affect the final results of a traffic safety analysis. As a potential solution to the problem of low sample mean and small sample size, this paper suggests some practical guidance on how to incorporate past evidence into informative hyper-priors. By combining evidence from past studies and data available, the model parameter estimates can significantly be improved. The effect of prior choice seems to be less important on the hotspot identification. The results show the benefits of incorporating prior information when working with limited crash data in road safety studies. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work Safety Climate, Musculoskeletal Discomfort, Working While Injured, and Depression Among Migrant Farmworkers in North Carolina

PubMed Central

O’Hara, Heather; Grzywacz, Joseph G.; Isom, Scott; Chen, Haiying; Quandt, Sara A.

2012-01-01

Objectives. This analysis described Latino migrant farmworkers’ work safety climate and its association with musculoskeletal discomfort, working while injured or ill, and depressive symptoms. Methods. Data were from a cross-sectional survey of 300 farmworkers conducted in North Carolina in 2009. Generalized estimating equations models were used to investigate the association of work safety climate with health and safety outcomes. Results. Farmworkers perceived their work safety climate to be poor. About 40% had elevated musculoskeletal discomfort, 5.0% had worked at least 1 day while injured or ill, and 27.9% had elevated depressive symptoms. The odds of elevated musculoskeletal discomfort were 12% lower and the odds of working while injured or ill were 15% lower with each 1-unit increase in the work safety climate. Work safety climate was not associated with depressive symptoms. Conclusions. Work safety climate was important for agricultural workers. Poor work safety climate was associated with health outcomes (musculoskeletal discomfort) and safety (working while injured or ill). Interventions to improve work safety climate in agriculture are needed, with these interventions being directed to employers and workers. PMID:22401520

Work safety climate, musculoskeletal discomfort, working while injured, and depression among migrant farmworkers in North Carolina.

PubMed

Arcury, Thomas A; O'Hara, Heather; Grzywacz, Joseph G; Isom, Scott; Chen, Haiying; Quandt, Sara A

2012-05-01

This analysis described Latino migrant farmworkers' work safety climate and its association with musculoskeletal discomfort, working while injured or ill, and depressive symptoms. Data were from a cross-sectional survey of 300 farmworkers conducted in North Carolina in 2009. Generalized estimating equations models were used to investigate the association of work safety climate with health and safety outcomes. Farmworkers perceived their work safety climate to be poor. About 40% had elevated musculoskeletal discomfort, 5.0% had worked at least 1 day while injured or ill, and 27.9% had elevated depressive symptoms. The odds of elevated musculoskeletal discomfort were 12% lower and the odds of working while injured or ill were 15% lower with each 1-unit increase in the work safety climate. Work safety climate was not associated with depressive symptoms. Work safety climate was important for agricultural workers. Poor work safety climate was associated with health outcomes (musculoskeletal discomfort) and safety (working while injured or ill). Interventions to improve work safety climate in agriculture are needed, with these interventions being directed to employers and workers.

A new method to evaluate future impact of vehicle safety technology in Sweden.

PubMed

Strandroth, Johan; Sternlund, Simon; Tingvall, Claes; Johansson, Roger; Rizzi, Matteo; Kullgren, Anders

2012-10-01

In the design of a safe road transport system there is a need to better understand the safety challenges lying ahead. One way of doing that is to evaluate safety technology with retrospective analysis of crashes. However, by using retros- pective data there is the risk of adapting safety innovations to scenarios irrelevant in the future. Also, challenges arise as safety interventions do not act alone but are rather interacting components in a complex road transport system. The objective of this study was therefore to facilitate the prioritizing of road safety measures by developing and applying a new method to consider possible impact of future vehicle safety technology. The key point was to project the chain of events leading to a crash today into the crashes for a given time in the future. Assumptions on implementation on safety technologies were made and these assump- tions were applied on the crashes of today. It was estimated which crashes would be prevented and the residual was analyzed to identify the characteristics of future crashes. The Swedish Transport Administration's in-depth studies of fatal crashes from 2010 involving car passengers (n=156) were used. This study estimated that the number of killed car occupant would be reduced with 53 percent from the year 2010 to 2020. Through this new method, valuable information regarding the characteristic of the future crashes was found. The results of this study showed that it was possible to evaluate future impact of vehicle safety technology if detailed and representative crash data is available.

Air traffic surveillance and control using hybrid estimation and protocol-based conflict resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Inseok

The continued growth of air travel and recent advances in new technologies for navigation, surveillance, and communication have led to proposals by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to provide reliable and efficient tools to aid Air Traffic Control (ATC) in performing their tasks. In this dissertation, we address four problems frequently encountered in air traffic surveillance and control; multiple target tracking and identity management, conflict detection, conflict resolution, and safety verification. We develop a set of algorithms and tools to aid ATC; These algorithms have the provable properties of safety, computational efficiency, and convergence. Firstly, we develop a multiple-maneuvering-target tracking and identity management algorithm which can keep track of maneuvering aircraft in noisy environments and of their identities. Secondly, we propose a hybrid probabilistic conflict detection algorithm between multiple aircraft which uses flight mode estimates as well as aircraft current state estimates. Our algorithm is based on hybrid models of aircraft, which incorporate both continuous dynamics and discrete mode switching. Thirdly, we develop an algorithm for multiple (greater than two) aircraft conflict avoidance that is based on a closed-form analytic solution and thus provides guarantees of safety. Finally, we consider the problem of safety verification of control laws for safety critical systems, with application to air traffic control systems. We approach safety verification through reachability analysis, which is a computationally expensive problem. We develop an over-approximate method for reachable set computation using polytopic approximation methods and dynamic optimization. These algorithms may be used either in a fully autonomous way, or as supporting tools to increase controllers' situational awareness and to reduce their work load.

Predicting perceived safety to drive the morning after drinking: The importance of hangover symptoms.

PubMed

Cameron, Elaine; French, David P

2016-07-01

People driving the day after drinking are at risk of impaired performance and accidents due to continued intoxication or the effects of alcohol hangover. Drivers are poor at estimating their own blood alcohol concentration, and some drive despite believing they are over the legal limit. It is therefore important to identify other factors influencing perceived ability to drive 'the morning after'. This study tested how accurately participants estimated their legal driving status, and the contribution of beliefs and hangover symptoms to the prediction of perceived driving safety. This cross-sectional study involved 193 students completing a questionnaire and alcohol breath test the morning after heavy alcohol consumption. Indicators of subjective intoxication, severity of hangover symptoms, estimated legal status and perceived safety to drive were measured. A hierarchical linear regression analysis was conducted. No participants thought they were under the English legal limit when they were not, and 47% thought they were over the limit when they were in fact legally permissible to drive. However, 20% of those believing they were over the limit nevertheless rated themselves as safe to drive. Hangover symptoms added 17% variance to the prediction of perceived safety to drive, over and above objective and subjective measures of intoxication. Perceived severity of hangover symptoms influence beliefs about driving ability: When judging safety to drive, people experiencing less severe symptoms believe they are less impaired. If this finding is robust, health promotion campaigns should aim to correct this misapprehension. [Cameron E, French D. Predicting perceived safety to drive the morning after drinking: The importance of hangover symptoms. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:442-446]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Geostatistical Investigations of Displacements on the Basis of Data from the Geodetic Monitoring of a Hydrotechnical Object

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namysłowska-Wilczyńska, Barbara; Wynalek, Janusz

2017-12-01

Geostatistical methods make the analysis of measurement data possible. This article presents the problems directed towards the use of geostatistics in spatial analysis of displacements based on geodetic monitoring. Using methods of applied (spatial) statistics, the research deals with interesting and current issues connected to space-time analysis, modeling displacements and deformations, as applied to any large-area objects on which geodetic monitoring is conducted (e.g., water dams, urban areas in the vicinity of deep excavations, areas at a macro-regional scale subject to anthropogenic influences caused by mining, etc.). These problems are very crucial, especially for safety assessment of important hydrotechnical constructions, as well as for modeling and estimating mining damage. Based on the geodetic monitoring data, a substantial basic empirical material was created, comprising many years of research results concerning displacements of controlled points situated on the crown and foreland of an exemplary earth dam, and used to assess the behaviour and safety of the object during its whole operating period. A research method at a macro-regional scale was applied to investigate some phenomena connected with the operation of the analysed big hydrotechnical construction. Applying a semivariogram function enabled the spatial variability analysis of displacements. Isotropic empirical semivariograms were calculated and then, theoretical parameters of analytical functions were determined, which approximated the courses of the mentioned empirical variability measure. Using ordinary (block) kriging at the grid nodes of an elementary spatial grid covering the analysed object, the values of the Z* estimated means of displacements were calculated together with the accompanying assessment of uncertainty estimation - a standard deviation of estimation σk. Raster maps of the distribution of estimated averages Z* and raster maps of deviations of estimation σk (in perspective) were obtained for selected years (1995 and 2007), taking the ground height 136 m a.s.l. into calculation. To calculate raster maps of Z* interpolated values, methods of quick interpolation were also used, such as the technique of the inverse distance squares, a linear model of kriging, a spline kriging, which made the recognition of the general background of displacements possible, without the accuracy assessment of Z* value estimation, i.e., the value of σk. These maps are also related to 1995 and 2007 and the elevation. As a result of applying these techniques, clear boundaries of subsiding areas, upthrusting and also horizontal displacements on the examined hydrotechnical object were marked out, which can be interpreted as areas of local deformations of the object, important for the safety of the construction. The effect of geostatistical research conducted, including the structural analysis, semivariograms modeling, estimating the displacements of the hydrotechnical object, are rich cartographic characteristic (semivariograms, raster maps, block diagrams), which present the spatial visualization of the conducted various analyses of the monitored displacements. The prepared geostatistical model (3D) of displacement variability (analysed within the area of the dam, during its operating period and including its height) will be useful not only in the correct assessment of displacements and deformations, but it will also make it possible to forecast these phenomena, which is crucial when the operating safety of such constructions is taken into account.

Fundamentals of health risk assessment. Use, derivation, validity and limitations of safety indices.

PubMed

Putzrath, R M; Wilson, J D

1999-04-01

We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the "NAS paradigm." Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as "Acceptable Daily Intake," "Reference Dose," and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Risk is characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U.S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's "Proposition 65," where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of "conventional air pollutants." These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

The estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction in recent light-duty vehicles on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled.

PubMed

Wenzel, Tom

2013-10-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can reduce mass as a strategy to increase their vehicles' fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions without necessarily compromising societal safety. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The economic burden of patient safety targets in acute care: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Mittmann, Nicole; Koo, Marika; Daneman, Nick; McDonald, Andrew; Baker, Michael; Matlow, Anne; Krahn, Murray; Shojania, Kaveh G; Etchells, Edward

2012-01-01

Background Our objective was to determine the quality of literature in costing of the economic burden of patient safety. Methods We selected 15 types of patient safety targets for our systematic review. We searched the literature published between 2000 and 2010 using the following terms: “costs and cost analysis,” “cost-effectiveness,” “cost,” and “financial management, hospital.” We appraised the methodologic quality of potentially relevant studies using standard economic methods. We recorded results in the original currency, adjusted for inflation, and then converted to 2010 US dollars for comparative purposes (2010 US$1.00 = 2010 €0.76). The quality of each costing study per patient safety target was also evaluated. Results We screened 1948 abstracts, and identified 158 potentially eligible studies, of which only 61 (39%) reported any costing methodology. In these 61 studies, we found wide estimates of the attributable costs of patient safety events ranging from $2830 to $10,074. In general hospital populations, the cost per case of hospital-acquired infection ranged from $2132 to $15,018. Nosocomial bloodstream infection was associated with costs ranging from $2604 to $22,414. Conclusion There are wide variations in the estimates of economic burden due to differences in study methods and methodologic quality. Greater attention to methodologic standards for economic evaluations in patient safety is needed. PMID:23097615

Costs of Food Safety Investments in the Meat and Poultry Slaughter Industries.

PubMed

Viator, Catherine L; Muth, Mary K; Brophy, Jenna E; Noyes, Gary

2017-02-01

To develop regulations efficiently, federal agencies need to know the costs of implementing various regulatory alternatives. As the regulatory agency responsible for the safety of meat and poultry products, the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service is interested in the costs borne by meat and poultry establishments. This study estimated the costs of developing, validating, and reassessing hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP), sanitary standard operating procedures (SSOP), and sampling plans; food safety training for new employees; antimicrobial equipment and solutions; sanitizing equipment; third-party audits; and microbial tests. Using results from an in-person expert consultation, web searches, and contacts with vendors, we estimated capital equipment, labor, materials, and other costs associated with these investments. Results are presented by establishment size (small and large) and species (beef, pork, chicken, and turkey), when applicable. For example, the cost of developing food safety plans, such as HACCP, SSOP, and sampling plans, can range from approximately $6000 to $87000, depending on the type of plan and establishment size. Food safety training costs from approximately $120 to $2500 per employee, depending on the course and type of employee. The costs of third-party audits range from approximately $13000 to $24000 per audit, and establishments are often subject to multiple audits per year. Knowing the cost of these investments will allow researchers and regulators to better assess the effects of food safety regulations and evaluate cost-effective alternatives. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

Instrumental variable methods in comparative safety and effectiveness research†

PubMed Central

Brookhart, M. Alan; Rassen, Jeremy A.; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2010-01-01

Summary Instrumental variable (IV) methods have been proposed as a potential approach to the common problem of uncontrolled confounding in comparative studies of medical interventions, but IV methods are unfamiliar to many researchers. The goal of this article is to provide a non-technical, practical introduction to IV methods for comparative safety and effectiveness research. We outline the principles and basic assumptions necessary for valid IV estimation, discuss how to interpret the results of an IV study, provide a review of instruments that have been used in comparative effectiveness research, and suggest some minimal reporting standards for an IV analysis. Finally, we offer our perspective of the role of IV estimation vis-à-vis more traditional approaches based on statistical modeling of the exposure or outcome. We anticipate that IV methods will be often underpowered for drug safety studies of very rare outcomes, but may be potentially useful in studies of intended effects where uncontrolled confounding may be substantial. PMID:20354968

Process value of care safety: women's willingness to pay for perinatal services.

PubMed

Anezaki, Hisataka; Hashimoto, Hideki

2017-08-01

To evaluate the process value of care safety from the patient's view in perinatal services. Cross-sectional survey. Fifty two sites of mandated public neonatal health checkup in 6 urban cities in West Japan. Mothers who attended neonatal health checkups for their babies in 2011 (n = 1316, response rate = 27.4%). Willingness to pay (WTP) for physician-attended care compared with midwife care as the process-related value of care safety. WTP was estimated using conjoint analysis based on the participants' choice over possible alternatives that were randomly assigned from among eight scenarios considering attributes such as professional attendance, amenities, painless delivery, caesarean section rate, travel time and price. The WTP for physician-attended care over midwife care was estimated 1283 USD. Women who had experienced complications in prior deliveries had a 1.5 times larger WTP. We empirically evaluated the process value for safety practice in perinatal care that was larger than a previously reported accounting-based value. Our results indicate that measurement of process value from the patient's view is informative for the evaluation of safety care, and that it is sensitive to individual risk perception for the care process. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care.

Projecting the health and economic impact of road safety initiatives: a case study of a multi-country project.

PubMed

Esperato, Alexo; Bishai, David; Hyder, Adnan A

2012-01-01

The Road Safety in 10 Countries (RS-10) project will implement 12 different road safety interventions at specific sites within 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This evaluation reports the number of lives that RS-10 is projected to save in those locations, the economic value of the risk reduction, and the maximum level of investment that a public health intervention of this magnitude would be able to incur before its costs outweigh its health benefits. We assumed a 5-year time implementation horizon corresponding to the duration of RS-10. Based on a preliminary literature review, we estimated the effectiveness for each of the RS-10 interventions. Applying these effectiveness estimates to the size of the population at risk at RS-10 sites, we calculated the number of lives and life years saved (LYS) by RS-10. We projected the value of a statistical life (VSL) in each RS-10 country based on gross national income (GNI) and estimated the value of the lives saved using each country's VSL. Sensitivity analysis addressed robustness to assumptions about elasticity, discount rates, and intervention effectiveness. From the evidence base reviewed, only 13 studies met our selection criteria. Such a limited base presents uncertainties about the potential impact of the modeled interventions. We tried to account for these uncertainties by allowing effectiveness to vary ± 20 percent for each intervention. Despite this variability, RS-10 remains likely to be worth the investment. RS-10 is expected to save 10,310 lives over 5 years (discounted at 3%). VSL and $/LYS methods provide concordant results. Based on our estimates of each country's VSL, the respective countries would be willing to pay $2.45 billion to lower these fatality risks (varying intervention effectiveness by ± 20 percent, the corresponding range is $2.0-$2.9 billion). Analysis based on $/LYS shows that the RS-10 project will be cost-effective as long as its costs do not exceed $5.14 billion (under ± 20% intervention effectiveness, the range = $4.1-$6.2 billion). Even at low efficacy, these estimates are still several orders of magnitude above the $125 million projected investment. RS-10 is likely to yield high returns for invested resources. The study's chief limitation was the reliance on the world's limited evidence base on how effective the road safety interventions will be. Planned evaluation of RS-10 will enhance planners' ability to conduct economic assessments of road safety in developing countries.

Risk-Informed External Hazards Analysis for Seismic and Flooding Phenomena for a Generic PWR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steve; Ma, Zhegang

This report describes the activities performed during the FY2017 for the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS-RISMC), Industry Application #2. The scope of Industry Application #2 is to deliver a risk-informed external hazards safety analysis for a representative nuclear power plant. Following the advancements occurred during the previous FYs (toolkits identification, models development), FY2017 focused on: increasing the level of realism of the analysis; improving the tools and the coupling methodologies. In particular the following objectives were achieved: calculation of buildings pounding and their effects on components seismic fragility; development of a SAPHIRE code PRA modelsmore » for 3-loops Westinghouse PWR; set-up of a methodology for performing static-dynamic PRA coupling between SAPHIRE and EMRALD codes; coupling RELAP5-3D/RAVEN for performing Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis and automatic limit surface search; and execute sample calculations for demonstrating the capabilities of the toolkit in performing a risk-informed external hazards safety analyses.« less

Potentials for Platooning in U.S. Highway Freight Transport: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muratori, Matteo; Holden, Jacob; Lammert, Michael

2017-03-15

Smart technologies enabling connection among vehicles and between vehicles and infrastructure as well as vehicle automation to assist human operators are receiving significant attention as means for improving road transportation systems by reducing fuel consumption - and related emissions - while also providing additional benefits through improving overall traffic safety and efficiency. For truck applications, currently responsible for nearly three-quarters of the total U.S. freight energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, platooning has been identified as an early feature for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) that could provide significant fuel savings and improved traffic safety and efficiency without radicalmore » design or technology changes compared to existing vehicles. A statistical analysis was performed based on a large collection of real-world U.S. truck usage data to estimate the fraction of total miles that are technically suitable for platooning. In particular, our analysis focuses on estimating 'platoonable' mileage based on overall highway vehicle use and prolonged high-velocity traveling, establishing that about 65% of the total miles driven by combination trucks could be driven in platoon formation, leading to a 4% reduction in total truck fuel consumption. This technical potential for 'platoonable' miles in the U.S. provides an upper bound for scenario analysis considering fleet willingness to platoon as an estimate of overall benefits of early adoption of CAV technologies. A benefit analysis is proposed to assess the overall potential for energy savings and emissions mitigation by widespread implementation of highway platooning for trucks.« less

Nursing workload, patient safety incidents and mortality: an observational study from Finland

PubMed Central

Kinnunen, Marina; Saarela, Jan

2018-01-01

Objective To investigate whether the daily workload per nurse (Oulu Patient Classification (OPCq)/nurse) as measured by the RAFAELA system correlates with different types of patient safety incidents and with patient mortality, and to compare the results with regressions based on the standard patients/nurse measure. Setting We obtained data from 36 units from four Finnish hospitals. One was a tertiary acute care hospital, and the three others were secondary acute care hospitals. Participants Patients’ nursing intensity (249 123 classifications), nursing resources, patient safety incidents and patient mortality were collected on a daily basis during 1 year, corresponding to 12 475 data points. Associations between OPC/nurse and patient safety incidents or mortality were estimated using unadjusted logistic regression models, and models that adjusted for ward-specific effects, and effects of day of the week, holiday and season. Primary and secondary outcome measures Main outcome measures were patient safety incidents and death of a patient. Results When OPC/nurse was above the assumed optimal level, the adjusted odds for a patient safety incident were 1.24 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.42) that of the assumed optimal level, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.93) if it was below the assumed optimal level. Corresponding estimates for patient mortality were 1.43 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.73) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.60 to 1.00), respectively. As compared with the patients/nurse classification, models estimated on basis of the RAFAELA classification system generally provided larger effect sizes, greater statistical power and better model fit, although the difference was not very large. Net benefits as calculated on the basis of decision analysis did not provide any clear evidence on which measure to prefer. Conclusions We have demonstrated an association between daily workload per nurse and patient safety incidents and mortality. Current findings need to be replicated by future studies. PMID:29691240

Effect of renal impairment on the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and safety of apixaban.

PubMed

Chang, Ming; Yu, Zhigang; Shenker, Andrew; Wang, Jessie; Pursley, Janice; Byon, Wonkyung; Boyd, Rebecca A; LaCreta, Frank; Frost, Charles E

2016-05-01

This open-label study evaluated apixaban pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and safety in subjects with mild, moderate, or severe renal impairment and in healthy subjects following a single 10-mg oral dose. The primary analysis determined the relationship between apixaban AUC∞ and 24-hour creatinine clearance (CLcr ) as a measure of renal function. The relationships between 24-hour CLcr and iohexol clearance, estimated CLcr (Cockcroft-Gault equation), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (modification of diet in renal disease [MDRD] equation) were also assessed. Secondary objectives included assessment of safety and tolerability as well as international normalized ratio (INR) and anti-factor Xa activity as pharmacodynamic endpoints. The regression analysis showed that decreasing renal function resulted in modestly increased apixaban exposure (AUC∞ increased by 44% in severe impairment with a 24-hour CLcr of 15 mL/min, compared with subjects with normal renal function), but it did not affect Cmax or the direct relationship between apixaban plasma concentration and anti-factor Xa activity or INR. The assessment of renal function measured by iohexol clearance, Cockcroft-Gault, and MDRD was consistent with that determined by 24-hour CLcr . Apixaban was well tolerated in this study. These results suggest that dose adjustment of apixaban is not required on the basis of renal function alone. © 2015, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

A Figure of Merit: Quantifying the Probability of a Nuclear Reactor Accident.

PubMed

Wellock, Thomas R

In recent decades, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has become an essential tool in risk analysis and management in many industries and government agencies. The origins of PRA date to the 1975 publication of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Reactor Safety Study led by MIT professor Norman Rasmussen. The "Rasmussen Report" inspired considerable political and scholarly disputes over the motives behind it and the value of its methods and numerical estimates of risk. The Report's controversies have overshadowed the deeper technical origins of risk assessment. Nuclear experts had long sought to express risk in a "figure of merit" to verify the safety of weapons and, later, civilian reactors. By the 1970s, technical advances in PRA gave the methodology the potential to serve political ends, too. The Report, it was hoped, would prove nuclear power's safety to a growing chorus of critics. Subsequent attacks on the Report's methods and numerical estimates damaged the NRC's credibility. PRA's fortunes revived when the 1979 Three Mile Island accident demonstrated PRA's potential for improving the safety of nuclear power and other technical systems. Nevertheless, the Report's controversies endure in mistrust of PRA and its experts.

Methodology for Collision Risk Assessment of an Airspace Flow Corridor Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yimin

This dissertation presents a methodology to estimate the collision risk associated with a future air-transportation concept called the flow corridor. The flow corridor is a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept to reduce congestion and increase throughput in en-route airspace. The flow corridor has the potential to increase throughput by reducing the controller workload required to manage aircraft outside the corridor and by reducing separation of aircraft within corridor. The analysis in this dissertation is a starting point for the safety analysis required by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to eventually approve and implement the corridor concept. This dissertation develops a hybrid risk analysis methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic event tree analysis. The analysis captures the unique characteristics of the flow corridor concept, including self-separation within the corridor, lane change maneuvers, speed adjustments, and the automated separation assurance system. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the movement of aircraft in the flow corridor and to identify precursor events that might lead to a collision. Since these precursor events are not rare, standard Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate these occurrence rates. Dynamic event trees are then used to model the subsequent series of events that may lead to collision. When two aircraft are on course for a near-mid-air collision (NMAC), the on-board automated separation assurance system provides a series of safety layers to prevent the impending NNAC or collision. Dynamic event trees are used to evaluate the potential failures of these layers in order to estimate the rare-event collision probabilities. The results show that the throughput can be increased by reducing separation to 2 nautical miles while maintaining the current level of safety. A sensitivity analysis shows that the most critical parameters in the model related to the overall collision probability are the minimum separation, the probability that both flights fail to respond to traffic collision avoidance system, the probability that an NMAC results in a collision, the failure probability of the automatic dependent surveillance broadcast in receiver, and the conflict detection probability.

A statistical analysis of the impact of advertising signs on road safety.

PubMed

Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Papantoniou, Panagiotis; Voulgari, Chrisoula

2013-01-01

This research aims to investigate the impact of advertising signs on road safety. An exhaustive review of international literature was carried out on the effect of advertising signs on driver behaviour and safety. Moreover, a before-and-after statistical analysis with control groups was applied on several road sites with different characteristics in the Athens metropolitan area, in Greece, in order to investigate the correlation between the placement or removal of advertising signs and the related occurrence of road accidents. Road accident data for the 'before' and 'after' periods on the test sites and the control sites were extracted from the database of the Hellenic Statistical Authority, and the selected 'before' and 'after' periods vary from 2.5 to 6 years. The statistical analysis shows no statistical correlation between road accidents and advertising signs in none of the nine sites examined, as the confidence intervals of the estimated safety effects are non-significant at 95% confidence level. This can be explained by the fact that, in the examined road sites, drivers are overloaded with information (traffic signs, directions signs, labels of shops, pedestrians and other vehicles, etc.) so that the additional information load from advertising signs may not further distract them.

A prioritization of generic safety issues. Supplement 19, Revision insertion instructions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1995-11-01

The report presents the safety priority ranking for generic safety issues related to nuclear power plants. The purpose of these rankings is to assist in the timely and efficient allocation of NRC resources for the resolution of those safety issues that have a significant potential for reducing risk. The safety priority rankings are HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW, and DROP, and have been assigned on the basis of risk significance estimates, the ratio of risk to costs and other impacts estimated to result if resolution of the safety issues were implemented, and the consideration of uncertainties and other quantitative or qualitative factors.more » To the extent practical, estimates are quantitative. This document provides revisions and amendments to the report.« less

Emission rate modeling and risk assessment at an automobile plant from painting operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, A.; Shrivastava, A.; Kulkarni, A.

Pollution from automobile plants from painting operations has been addressed in the Clean Act Amendments (1990). The estimation of pollutant emissions from automobile painting operation were done mostly by approximate procedures than by actual calculations. The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology for calculating the emissions of the pollutants from painting operation in an automobile plant. Five scenarios involving an automobile painting operation, located in Columbus (Ohio), were studied for pollutant emission and concomitant risk associated with that. In the study of risk, a sensitivity analysis was done using Crystal Ball{reg{underscore}sign} on the parameters involved in risk.more » This software uses the Monte Carlo principle. The most sensitive factor in the risk analysis was the ground level concentration of the pollutants. All scenarios studied met the safety goal (a risk value of 1 x 10{sup {minus}6}) with different confidence levels. The highest level of confidence in meeting the safety goal was displayed by Scenario 1 (Alpha Industries). The results from the scenarios suggest that risk is associated with the quantity of released toxic pollutants. The sensitivity analysis of the various parameter shows that average spray rate of paint is the most important parameter in the estimation of pollutants from the painting operations. The entire study is a complete module that can be used by the environmental pollution control agencies for estimation of pollution levels and estimation of associated risk. The study can be further extended to other operations in an automobile industry or to different industries.« less

The effectiveness of the 55 MPH national maximum speed limit as a life saving benefit

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-10-01

The report contains an analysis of the life saving benefits resulting from the 55 mph NMSL from 1974-1979. Monthly fatality data from 1970-1979 was used in a time series model to arrive at the estimated safety benefits (lives saved). The time series ...

Investigating the Impact of Lack of Motorcycle Annual Average Daily Traffic Data in Crash Modeling and the Estimation of Crash Modification Factors

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The development of safety performance functions (SPFs) and crash modification factors (CMFs) requires data on traffic exposure. The analysis of motorcycle crashes can be especially challenging in this regard because few jurisdictions collect motorcyc...

Safety-critical event risk associated with cell phone tasks as measured in naturalistic driving studies: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simmons, Sarah M; Hicks, Anne; Caird, Jeff K

2016-02-01

A systematic review and meta-analysis of naturalistic driving studies involving estimates of safety-critical event risk associated with handheld device use while driving is described. Fifty-seven studies identified from targeted databases, journals and websites were reviewed in depth, and six were ultimately included. These six studies, published between 2006 and 2014, encompass seven sets of naturalistic driver data and describe original research that utilized naturalistic methods to assess the effects of distracting behaviors. Four studies involved non-commercial drivers of light vehicles and two studies involved commercial drivers of trucks and buses. Odds ratios quantifying safety-critical event (SCE) risk associated with talking, dialing, locating or answering, and texting or browsing were extracted. Stratified meta-analysis of pooled odds ratios was used to estimate SCE risk by distraction type; meta-regression was used to test for sources of heterogeneity. The results indicate that tasks that require drivers to take their eyes off the road, such as dialing, locating a phone and texting, increase SCE risk to a greater extent than tasks that do not require eyes off the road such as talking. Although talking on a handheld device did not increase SCE risk, further research is required to determine whether it indirectly influences SCE risk (e.g., by encouraging other cell phone activities). In addition, a number of study biases and quality issues of naturalistic driving studies are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.

1992-01-01

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Worldwide, 3-Year, Post-Marketing Surveillance Experience with Tofacitinib in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

PubMed

Cohen, Stanley; Curtis, Jeffrey R; DeMasi, Ryan; Chen, Yan; Fan, Haiyun; Soonasra, Arif; Fleischmann, Roy

2018-06-01

Post-marketing surveillance (PMS) is an integral part of monitoring adverse events (AEs) following approval of new drugs. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). An analysis of PMS reports was conducted to evaluate the safety of tofacitinib in a post-marketing setting. Worldwide tofacitinib PMS data received in the Pfizer safety database from November 6, 2012 (first marketing authorization of tofacitinib) to November 5, 2015 were analyzed. Serious AEs (SAEs) of interest were reviewed and reporting rates (RRs) were calculated by dividing the number of SAEs by the estimated 100 patient-years of exposure. Patient exposure was calculated based on estimated worldwide sales and an estimated daily regimen of tofacitinib 5 mg twice daily. During the 3-year reporting period, worldwide post-marketing exposure to tofacitinib since approval was estimated to be 34,223 patient-years. In total, 9291 case reports (82.9% non-serious) were received and 25,417 AEs, 102 fatal cases, and 4352 SAEs were reported. The RRs (per 100 patient-years) for SAEs of interest by Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities System Organ Class were 2.57 for infections, 0.91 for gastrointestinal disorders, 0.60 for respiratory disorders, 0.45 for neoplasms, 0.43 for cardiac disorders, and 0.12 for hepatobiliary disorders. Although there are limitations to these data, no new safety risks were revealed in this real-world setting compared with the safety profile identified in the tofacitinib RA clinical development program. Any risks identified through the tofacitinib development program and PMS will continue to be monitored through pharmacovigilance surveillance. Pfizer Inc.

Unmanned aircraft system sense and avoid integrity and continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamoom, Michael B.

This thesis describes new methods to guarantee safety of sense and avoid (SAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) by evaluating integrity and continuity risks. Previous SAA efforts focused on relative safety metrics, such as risk ratios, comparing the risk of using an SAA system versus not using it. The methods in this thesis evaluate integrity and continuity risks as absolute measures of safety, as is the established practice in commercial aircraft terminal area navigation applications. The main contribution of this thesis is a derivation of a new method, based on a standard intruder relative constant velocity assumption, that uses hazard state estimates and estimate error covariances to establish (1) the integrity risk of the SAA system not detecting imminent loss of '"well clear," which is the time and distance required to maintain safe separation from intruder aircraft, and (2) the probability of false alert, the continuity risk. Another contribution is applying these integrity and continuity risk evaluation methods to set quantifiable and certifiable safety requirements on sensors. A sensitivity analysis uses this methodology to evaluate the impact of sensor errors on integrity and continuity risks. The penultimate contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation where the estimation model is refined to address realistic intruder relative linear accelerations, which goes beyond the current constant velocity standard. The final contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation addressing multiple intruders. This evaluation is a new innovation-based method to determine the risk of mis-associating intruder measurements. A mis-association occurs when the SAA system incorrectly associates a measurement to the wrong intruder, causing large errors in the estimated intruder trajectories. The new methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between aircraft and enable SAA sensor certification for UAS integration into the National Airspace System.

Levetiracetam Versus Phenytoin for Seizure Prophylaxis Following Traumatic Brain Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Yong; Zheng, Fangshuo; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xuefeng

2016-08-01

Seizure following traumatic brain injury (TBI) constitutes a common complication that requires effective prevention to improve the outcome of TBI. Phenytoin has been the only recommended antiepileptic drug (AED) for seizure prophylaxis; however, several shortcomings have affected its use. Intravenous levetiracetam has been available since 2006 and has been increasingly accepted as a seizure prophylaxis for brain injury, mainly due to its favorable pharmacokinetic features and minimal adverse events profile. However, the efficacy and safety of levetiracetam versus phenytoin for seizure prophylaxis following TBI are not well clarified. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy and safety of levetiracetam versus phenytoin for seizure prophylaxis following TBI. We conducted a search of the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane library databases to March 2016, and screened original research that included patients with TBI who received levetiracetam. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or controlled observational cohort studies that compared levetiracetam and phenytoin, as well as uncontrolled case series regarding prophylactic levetiracetam following TBI. The outcomes included early or late seizure prophylaxis and safety. The estimates of seizure prophylaxis were pooled using a meta-analysis, and the estimates for the case series were pooled using descriptive statistics. A total of 1614 patients from 11 studies were included in this review, of whom 1285 patients from eight controlled studies (one RCT and seven cohort studies) were included in the meta-analysis. Levetiracetam was not superior to phenytoin with regard to early seizure prophylaxis (risk ratio [RR] 1.10, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.64-1.88); the estimate of early seizure incidence was 0.05 (95 % CI 0.02-0.08). Three studies that assessed late seizure did not indicate the superiority of levetiracetam to phenytoin. There were no differences in mortality during hospitalization or after 6 months, or in the number of patients with adverse reactions between levetiracetam and phenytoin. Levetiracetam does not appear to be superior to phenytoin in efficacy or safety with regard to early or late seizure prophylaxis following TBI; however, no class I evidence was identified. Additional evidence from high-quality studies is required.

Likelihood-Based Random-Effect Meta-Analysis of Binary Events.

PubMed

Amatya, Anup; Bhaumik, Dulal K; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Greenhouse, Joel; Kaizar, Eloise; Neelon, Brian; Gibbons, Robert D

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis has been used extensively for evaluation of efficacy and safety of medical interventions. Its advantages and utilities are well known. However, recent studies have raised questions about the accuracy of the commonly used moment-based meta-analytic methods in general and for rare binary outcomes in particular. The issue is further complicated for studies with heterogeneous effect sizes. Likelihood-based mixed-effects modeling provides an alternative to moment-based methods such as inverse-variance weighted fixed- and random-effects estimators. In this article, we compare and contrast different mixed-effect modeling strategies in the context of meta-analysis. Their performance in estimation and testing of overall effect and heterogeneity are evaluated when combining results from studies with a binary outcome. Models that allow heterogeneity in both baseline rate and treatment effect across studies have low type I and type II error rates, and their estimates are the least biased among the models considered.

A meta-analysis of personality and workplace safety: addressing unanswered questions.

PubMed

Beus, Jeremy M; Dhanani, Lindsay Y; McCord, Mallory A

2015-03-01

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 100(2) of Journal of Applied Psychology (see record 2015-08139-001). Table 3 contained formatting errors. Minus signs used to indicate negative statistical estimates within the table were inadvertently changed to m-dashes. All versions of this article have been corrected.] The purpose of this meta-analysis was to address unanswered questions regarding the associations between personality and workplace safety by (a) clarifying the magnitude and meaning of these associations with both broad and facet-level personality traits, (b) delineating how personality is associated with workplace safety, and (c) testing the relative importance of personality in comparison to perceptions of the social context of safety (i.e., safety climate) in predicting safety-related behavior. Our results revealed that whereas agreeableness and conscientiousness were negatively associated with unsafe behaviors, extraversion and neuroticism were positively associated with them. Of these traits, agreeableness accounted for the largest proportion of explained variance in safety-related behavior and openness to experience was unrelated. At the facet level, sensation seeking, altruism, anger, and impulsiveness were all meaningfully associated with safety-related behavior, though sensation seeking was the only facet that demonstrated a stronger relationship than its parent trait (i.e., extraversion). In addition, meta-analytic path modeling supported the theoretical expectation that personality's associations with accidents are mediated by safety-related behavior. Finally, although safety climate perceptions accounted for the majority of explained variance in safety-related behavior, personality traits (i.e., agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism) still accounted for a unique and substantive proportion of the explained variance. Taken together, these results substantiate the value of considering personality traits as key correlates of workplace safety. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Development of a Universal Safety Behavior Management System for Coal Mine Workers

PubMed Central

LI, Jizu; LI, Yuejiao; LIU, Xiaoguang

2015-01-01

Background: In China, over 80% of all work-related deaths in the mining industry occur in coal mines and human factors constitute 85% of the direct causes of coal mine accidents, which indicates that significant shortcomings currently exist in the safety behavior management of Chinese coal mine workers. We aimed to verify the impact of human psychological behavior in coal mine accidents systematically through experimental study, theoretical analysis and management application. Methods: Four test instruments (Sensory and cognitive capacity test, Sixteen-Personal Factor Questionnaire, Symptom Checklist 90 Questionnaire and the supervisors’ evaluation) were employed from November 2013 to June 2014 to identify unsafe behavior factors, the self-established Questionnaire of Safety Behavior Norms (QSBN) was also used to propose the safety behavior countermeasures of coal mine employees. Results: The mental health of most coal mine workers’ is relatively poor. The sensory and cognitive capacity of those in different work posts varies greatly, as does the sense of responsibility. Workers are susceptible to external influences, and score low in site management. When the 16-PF and SCL-90 sensory and cognitive assessments were combined, the psychological index predictive power was greatest for estimating sense of efficiency and degree of satisfaction in internal evaluations, while at the same time lowest for estimating control of introversion-extroversion and stress character. Conclusion: The psychological indicators can predict part of employee safety behavior, and assist a coal mine enterprise to recruit staff, develop occupational safety norms and improve the working environment. PMID:26258088

Road safety measures : a catalogue of estimates of effect : summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-04-01

This report contains a catalogue of estimates of the effects on road safety of selected road safety measures. The report is intended to be used as a reference manual in drafting the national transport plan for Norway for the term 2006-2015.

Total Diet Study: For a Closer-to-real Estimate of Dietary Exposure to Chemical Substances

PubMed Central

Lee, Jeeyeon; Kwon, Sungok; Yoon, Hae-Jung

2015-01-01

Recent amendment on the Food Sanitation Act in Korea mandated the Minister of Food & Drug Safety to secure the scientific basis for management and reevaluation of standards and specifications of foods. Especially because the current food safety control is limited within the scope of ‘Farm to Market’ covering from production to retail in Korea, safety control at the plane of true ‘Farm to Fork’ scope is urgently needed and should include ‘total diet’ of population instead of individual food items. Therefore, ‘Total Diet Study (TDS)’ which provides ‘closer-to-real’ estimates of exposure to hazardous materials through analysis on table-ready (cooked) samples of foods would be the solution to more comprehensive food safety management, as suggested by World Health Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Although the protection of diets from hazards must be considered as one of the most essential public health functions of any country, we may need to revisit the value of foods which has been too much underrated by the meaningless amount of some hazardous materials in Korea. Considering the primary value of foods lies on sustaining life, growth, development, and health promotion of human being, food safety control should be handled not only by the presence or absence of hazardous materials but also by maximizing the value of foods via balancing with the preservation of beneficial components in foods embracing total diet. In this regard, this article aims to provide an overview on TDS by describing procedures involved except chemical analysis which is beyond our scope. Also, details on the ongoing TDS in Korea are provided as an example. Although TDS itself might not be of keen interest for most readers, it is the main user of the safety reference values resulted from toxicological research in the public health perspective. PMID:26483882

Safety performance of traffic phases and phase transitions in three phase traffic theory.

PubMed

Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Li, Zhibin

2015-12-01

Crash risk prediction models were developed to link safety to various phases and phase transitions defined by the three phase traffic theory. Results of the Bayesian conditional logit analysis showed that different traffic states differed distinctly with respect to safety performance. The random-parameter logit approach was utilized to account for the heterogeneity caused by unobserved factors. The Bayesian inference approach based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was used for the estimation of the random-parameter logit model. The proposed approach increased the prediction performance of the crash risk models as compared with the conventional logit model. The three phase traffic theory can help us better understand the mechanism of crash occurrences in various traffic states. The contributing factors to crash likelihood can be well explained by the mechanism of phase transitions. We further discovered that the free flow state can be divided into two sub-phases on the basis of safety performance, including a true free flow state in which the interactions between vehicles are minor, and a platooned traffic state in which bunched vehicles travel in successions. The results of this study suggest that a safety perspective can be added to the three phase traffic theory. The results also suggest that the heterogeneity between different traffic states should be considered when estimating the risks of crash occurrences on freeways. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How do smoking cessation medicines compare with respect to their neuropsychiatric safety? A protocol for a systematic review, network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Thomas, Kyla H; Caldwell, Deborah; Dalili, Michael N; Gunnell, David; Munafò, Marcus R; Stevenson, Matt; Welton, Nicky J

2017-06-17

Cigarette smoking is one of the leading causes of early death in the UK and worldwide. Public health guidance recommends the use of varenicline, bupropion and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) as smoking cessation aids in the UK. Additionally, the first electronic cigarette has been licensed for use as a smoking cessation medicine. However, there are ongoing concerns about the safety of these medicines. We present a protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) to determine how these smoking cessation medicines compare to each other with respect to their neuropsychiatric safety in adult smokers. Secondary aims include updating the evidence regarding the effectiveness and cardiovascular safety of these medicines for use in a cost-effectiveness analysis. We will include randomised controlled trials and observational studies with control groups comparing monotherapy with varenicline, bupropion, NRT or electronic cigarette and combination therapies to each other, placebo or usual care. The primary composite safety outcome will be serious adverse events, defined as events that resulted in death, were life threatening, required hospitalisation or resulted in significant disability or congenital/birth defect. The preferred effectiveness outcome will be sustained smoking cessation defined as abstinence for a minimum of 6 months as determined by biochemical validation. We will include trials identified by previous reviews and search relevant databases for newly published trials as well as contacting study authors to identify unpublished information. We will conduct fixed-effect and random-effect meta-analyses for each pairwise comparison of treatments and outcome; where these estimates differ, we will consider reasons for heterogeneity, quantified using the between-study variance (τ 2 ). For each outcome, we will construct a NMA in a Bayesian framework which will be compared with the pair-wise results, allowing us to rank treatments. The effectiveness estimates from the NMA will be entered into a probabilistic economic model. Ethics approval is not required for this evidence synthesis study as it involves analysis of secondary data from randomised controlled trials and observational studies. The review will make an important contribution to the knowledge base around the effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation medicines. Results will be disseminated to the general public, healthcare practitioners and clinicians, academics, industry and policy makers. CRD42016041302. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The relationship between patient safety climate and occupational safety climate in healthcare - A multi-level investigation.

PubMed

Pousette, Anders; Larsman, Pernilla; Eklöf, Mats; Törner, Marianne

2017-06-01

Patient safety climate/culture is attracting increasing research interest, but there is little research on its relation with organizational climates regarding other target domains. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between patient safety climate and occupational safety climate in healthcare. The climates were assessed using two questionnaires: Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture and Nordic Occupational Safety Climate Questionnaire. The final sample consisted of 1154 nurses, 886 assistant nurses, and 324 physicians, organized in 150 work units, within hospitals (117units), primary healthcare (5units) and elderly care (28units) in western Sweden, which represented 56% of the original sample contacted. Within each type of safety climate, two global dimensions were confirmed in a higher order factor analysis; one with an external focus relative the own unit, and one with an internal focus. Two methods were used to estimate the covariation between the global climate dimensions, in order to minimize the influence of bias from common method variance. First multilevel analysis was used for partitioning variances and covariances in a within unit part (individual level) and a between unit part (unit level). Second, a split sample technique was used to calculate unit level correlations based on aggregated observations from different respondents. Both methods showed associations similar in strength between the patient safety climate and the occupational safety climate domains. The results indicated that patient safety climate and occupational safety climate are strongly positively related at the unit level, and that the same organizational processes may be important for the development of both types of organizational climate. Safety improvement interventions should not be separated in different organizational processes, but be planned so that both patient safety and staff safety are considered concomitantly. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Promoting patient safety through prospective risk identification: example from peri-operative care.

PubMed

Smith, A; Boult, M; Woods, I; Johnson, S

2010-02-01

Investigation of patient safety incidents has focused on retrospective analyses once incidents have occurred. Prospective risk analysis techniques complement this but have not been widely used in healthcare. Prospective risk identification of non-operative risks associated with adult elective surgery under general anaesthesia using a customised structured "what if" checklist and development of risk matrix. Prioritisation of recommendations arising by cost, ease and likely speed of implementation. Groups totalling 20 clinical and administrative healthcare staff involved in peri-operative care and risk experts convened by the UK National Patient Safety Agency. 102 risks were identified and 95 recommendations made. The top 20 recommendations together were judged to encompass about 75% of the total estimated risk attributable to the processes considered. Staffing and organisational issues (21% of total estimated risk) included recommendations for removing distractions from the operating theatre, ensuring the availability of senior anaesthetists and promoting standards and flexible working among theatre staff. Devices and equipment (19% of total estimated risk) could be improved by training and standardisation; airway control and temperature monitoring were identified as two specific areas. Pre-assessment of patients before admission to hospital (12% of estimated risk) could be improved by defining a data set for adequate pre-assessment and making this available throughout the NHS. This technique can be successfully applied by healthcare staff but expert facilitation of groups is advisable. Such wider-ranging processes can potentially lead to more comprehensive risk reduction than "single-issue" risk alerts.

Shelf Life of Food Products: From Open Labeling to Real-Time Measurements.

PubMed

Corradini, Maria G

2018-03-25

The labels currently used on food and beverage products only provide consumers with a rough guide to their expected shelf lives because they assume that a product only experiences a limited range of predefined handling and storage conditions. These static labels do not take into consideration conditions that might shorten a product's shelf life (such as temperature abuse), which can lead to problems associated with food safety and waste. Advances in shelf-life estimation have the potential to improve the safety, reliability, and sustainability of the food supply. Selection of appropriate kinetic models and data-analysis techniques is essential to predict shelf life, to account for variability in environmental conditions, and to allow real-time monitoring. Novel analytical tools to determine safety and quality attributes in situ coupled with modern tracking technologies and appropriate predictive tools have the potential to provide accurate estimations of the remaining shelf life of a food product in real time. This review summarizes the necessary steps to attain a transition from open labeling to real-time shelf-life measurements.

An empirical analysis of farm vehicle crash injury severities on Iowa's public road system.

PubMed

Gkritza, Konstantina; Kinzenbaw, Caroline R; Hallmark, Shauna; Hawkins, Neal

2010-07-01

Farm vehicle crashes are a major safety concern for farmers as well as all other users of the public road system in agricultural states. Using data on farm vehicle crashes that occurred on Iowa's public roads between 2004 and 2006, we estimate a multinomial logit model to identify crash-, farm vehicle-, and driver-specific factors that determine farm vehicle crash injury severity outcomes. Estimation findings indicate that there are crash patterns (rear-end manner of collision; single-vehicle crash; farm vehicle crossed the centerline or median) and conditions (obstructed vision and crash in rural area; dry road, dark lighting, speed limit 55 mph or higher, and harvesting season), as well as farm vehicle and driver-contributing characteristics (old farm vehicle, young farm vehicle driver), where targeted intervention can help reduce the severity of crash outcomes. Determining these contributing factors and their effect is the first step to identifying countermeasures and safety strategies in a bid to improve transportation safety for all users on the public road system in Iowa as well as other agricultural states. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potentials for Platooning in U.S. Highway Freight Transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muratori, Matteo; Holden, Jacob; Lammert, Michael

2017-03-28

Smart technologies enabling connection among vehicles and between vehicles and infrastructure as well as vehicle automation to assist human operators are receiving significant attention as a means for improving road transportation systems by reducing fuel consumption - and related emissions - while also providing additional benefits through improving overall traffic safety and efficiency. For truck applications, which are currently responsible for nearly three-quarters of the total U.S. freight energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, platooning has been identified as an early feature for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) that could provide significant fuel savings and improved traffic safety andmore » efficiency without radical design or technology changes compared to existing vehicles. A statistical analysis was performed based on a large collection of real-world U.S. truck usage data to estimate the fraction of total miles that are technically suitable for platooning. In particular, our analysis focuses on estimating 'platoonable' mileage based on overall highway vehicle use and prolonged high-velocity traveling, and established that about 65% of the total miles driven by combination trucks from this data sample could be driven in platoon formation, leading to a 4% reduction in total truck fuel consumption. This technical potential for 'platoonable' miles in the United States provides an upper bound for scenario analysis considering fleet willingness and convenience to platoon as an estimate of overall benefits of early adoption of connected and automated vehicle technologies. A benefit analysis is proposed to assess the overall potential for energy savings and emissions mitigation by widespread implementation of highway platooning for trucks.« less

The effectiveness of the 55 MPH national maximum speed limit as a life saving benefit : executive summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

The following report contains an analysis of the life saving benefits resulting from the 55 mph NMSL from 1974-1979. Monthly fatality data from 1970-1979 was used in a time series model to arrive at the estimated safety benefits (lives saved). The ti...

Preliminary safety analysis of the Baita Bihor radioactive waste repository, Romania

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, Richard; Bond, Alex; Watson, Sarah

2007-07-01

A project funded under the European Commission's Phare Programme 2002 has undertaken an in-depth analysis of the operational and post-closure safety of the Baita Bihor repository. The repository has accepted low- and some intermediate-level radioactive waste from industry, medical establishments and research activities since 1985 and the current estimate is that disposals might continue for around another 20 to 35 years. The analysis of the operational and post-closure safety of the Baita Bihor repository was carried out in two iterations, with the second iteration resulting in reduced uncertainties, largely as a result taking into account new information on the hydrologymore » and hydrogeology of the area, collected as part of the project. Impacts were evaluated for the maximum potential inventory that might be available for disposal to Baita Bihor for a number of operational and postclosure scenarios and associated conceptual models. The results showed that calculated impacts were below the relevant regulatory criteria. In light of the assessment, a number of recommendations relating to repository operation, optimisation of repository engineering and waste disposals, and environmental monitoring were made. (authors)« less

Pedestrian Detection by Laser Scanning and Depth Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsi, A.; Lovas, T.; Molnar, B.; Somogyi, A.; Igazvolgyi, Z.

2016-06-01

Pedestrian flow is much less regulated and controlled compared to vehicle traffic. Estimating flow parameters would support many safety, security or commercial applications. Current paper discusses a method that enables acquiring information on pedestrian movements without disturbing and changing their motion. Profile laser scanner and depth camera have been applied to capture the geometry of the moving people as time series. Procedures have been developed to derive complex flow parameters, such as count, volume, walking direction and velocity from laser scanned point clouds. Since no images are captured from the faces of pedestrians, no privacy issues raised. The paper includes accuracy analysis of the estimated parameters based on video footage as reference. Due to the dense point clouds, detailed geometry analysis has been conducted to obtain the height and shoulder width of pedestrians and to detect whether luggage has been carried or not. The derived parameters support safety (e.g. detecting critical pedestrian density in mass events), security (e.g. detecting prohibited baggage in endangered areas) and commercial applications (e.g. counting pedestrians at all entrances/exits of a shopping mall).

RFID in the blood supply chain--increasing productivity, quality and patient safety.

PubMed

Briggs, Lynne; Davis, Rodeina; Gutierrez, Alfonso; Kopetsky, Matthew; Young, Kassandra; Veeramani, Raj

2009-01-01

As part of an overall design of a new, standardized RFID-enabled blood transfusion medicine supply chain, an assessment was conducted for two hospitals: the University of Iowa Hospital and Clinics (UIHC) and Mississippi Baptist Health System (MBHS). The main objectives of the study were to assess RFID technological and economic feasibility, along with possible impacts to productivity, quality and patient safety. A step-by-step process analysis focused on the factors contributing to process "pain points" (errors, inefficiency, product losses). A process re-engineering exercise produced blueprints of RFID-enabled processes to alleviate or eliminate those pain-points. In addition, an innovative model quantifying the potential reduction in adverse patient effects as a result of RFID implementation was created, allowing improvement initiatives to focus on process areas with the greatest potential impact to patient safety. The study concluded that it is feasible to implement RFID-enabled processes, with tangible improvements to productivity and safety expected. Based on a comprehensive cost/benefit model, it is estimated for a large hospital (UIHC) to recover investment from implementation within two to three years, while smaller hospitals may need longer to realize ROI. More importantly, the study estimated that RFID technology could reduce morbidity and mortality effects substantially among patients receiving transfusions.

Comparative physicochemical evaluation of a marketed herbomineral formulation: naga bhasma.

PubMed

Garg, M; Das, S; Singh, G

2012-11-01

In the practice of Ayurveda, where herbomineral formulations are said to be made biocompatible through specific processes like Shodhana and Marana, the western medical science on the contrary has raised the safety concerns of these formulations in the recent past. In the present study, comparative physico-chemical analysis of Naga bhasma, a herbo-mineral preparation having a reputation of miraculous drug commonly used to treat several health disorders, was carried out using five marketed formulations through analytical methods like differential scanning calorimetry, X-ray difraction, thermogravimetric analysis, Fourier Transform infrared spectroscopy and also subjected for particle size analysis and estimation of trace and heavy metals to access the safety of these formulation. The results revealed variable observations regarding particle size, metal form and content of lead. The presence of free lead in five different formulations indicated towards the possible risk of severe side effects to the consumer. Present findings certainly put doubt over the safety of this formulation but at the same time, variation in the results with all five formulations also indicated that these formulations were not prepared as per the mentioned Ayurvedic text. Hence, enforcement of strict regulatory guidelines is strongly warranted before launching into the market. Further, a series of biological studies need to be conducted before taking any final verdict on the safety of this formulation.

Fatality reduction by safety belts for front-seat occupants of cars and light trucks : updated and expanded estimates based on 1986-99 FARS data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimated in 1984 that manual 3-point safety belts : reduce the fatality risk of front-seat occupants of passenger cars by 45 percent relative to the unrestrained : occupant. The agency still relies ...

The Evaluation of the Safety Benefits of Combined Passive and On-Board Active Safety Applications

PubMed Central

Page, Yves; Cuny, Sophie; Zangmeister, Tobias; Kreiss, Jens-Peter; Hermitte, Thierry

2009-01-01

One of the objectives of the European TRACE project (TRaffic Accident Causation in Europe, 2006–2008) was to estimate the proportion of injury accidents that could be avoided and/or the proportion of injury accidents where the severity could be mitigated for on-the-market safety applications, if 100 % of the car fleet would be equipped with them. We have selected for evaluation the Electronic Stability Control (ESC) and the Emergency Brake Assist (EBA) applications. As for passive safety systems, recent cars are designed to offer overall safety protection. Car structure, load limiters, front airbags, side airbags, knee airbags, pretensioners, padding and non aggressive structures in the door panel, the dashboard, the windshield, the seats, and the head rest also contribute to applying more protection. The whole safety package is very difficult to evaluate separately, one element independently segmented from the others. We decided to consider evaluating the effectivenessof the whole passive safety package, This package,, for the sake of simplicity, was the number of stars awarded at the Euro NCAP testing. The challenges were to compare the effectiveness of some safety configuration SC I, with the effectiveness of a different safety configuration SC II. A safety configuration is understood as a package of safety functions. Ten comparisons have been carried out such as the evaluation of the safety benefit of a fifth star given that the car has four stars and an EBA. The main outcome of this analysis is that any addition of a passive or active safety function selected in this analysis is producing increased safety benefits. For example, if all cars were five stars fitted with EBA and ESC, instead of four stars without ESC and EBA, injury accidents would be reduced by 47.2% for severe injuries and 69.5% for fatal injuries. PMID:20184838

A Monte-Carlo simulation analysis for evaluating the severity distribution functions (SDFs) calibration methodology and determining the minimum sample-size requirements.

PubMed

Shirazi, Mohammadali; Reddy Geedipally, Srinivas; Lord, Dominique

2017-01-01

Severity distribution functions (SDFs) are used in highway safety to estimate the severity of crashes and conduct different types of safety evaluations and analyses. Developing a new SDF is a difficult task and demands significant time and resources. To simplify the process, the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) has started to document SDF models for different types of facilities. As such, SDF models have recently been introduced for freeway and ramps in HSM addendum. However, since these functions or models are fitted and validated using data from a few selected number of states, they are required to be calibrated to the local conditions when applied to a new jurisdiction. The HSM provides a methodology to calibrate the models through a scalar calibration factor. However, the proposed methodology to calibrate SDFs was never validated through research. Furthermore, there are no concrete guidelines to select a reliable sample size. Using extensive simulation, this paper documents an analysis that examined the bias between the 'true' and 'estimated' calibration factors. It was indicated that as the value of the true calibration factor deviates further away from '1', more bias is observed between the 'true' and 'estimated' calibration factors. In addition, simulation studies were performed to determine the calibration sample size for various conditions. It was found that, as the average of the coefficient of variation (CV) of the 'KAB' and 'C' crashes increases, the analyst needs to collect a larger sample size to calibrate SDF models. Taking this observation into account, sample-size guidelines are proposed based on the average CV of crash severities that are used for the calibration process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Medicaid Markets and Pediatric Patient Safety in Hospitals

PubMed Central

Smith, Richard B; Cheung, Robyn; Owens, Pamela; Wilson, R Mark; Simpson, Lisa

2007-01-01

Objective To examine the association of Medicaid market characteristics to potentially preventable adverse medical events for hospitalized children, controlling for patient- and hospital-level factors. Data Sources/Study Setting Two carefully selected Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) pediatric patient safety indicators (decubitus ulcers and laceration) are analyzed using the new pediatric-specific, risk-adjusting, patient safety algorithm from the AHRQ. All pediatric hospital discharges for patients age 0–17 in Florida, New York, and Wisconsin, and at risk of any of these two patient safety events, are examined for the years 1999–2001 (N=859,922). Study Design Logistic regression on the relevant pool of discharges estimates the probability an individual patient experiences one of the two PSI events. Data Extraction Methods Pediatric discharges from the 1999 to 2001 State Inpatient Databases (SIDs) from the AHRQ Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, merged with hospital-level data from the American Hospital Association's Annual Survey, Medicaid data obtained from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and state Medicaid offices, and private and Medicaid managed care enrollment data obtained from InterStudy, are used in the estimations. Principal Findings At the market level, patients in markets in which Medicaid payers face relatively little competition are more likely to experience a patient safety event (odds ratio [OR]=1.602), while patients in markets in which hospitals face relatively little competition are less likely to experience an adverse event (OR=0.686). At the patient-discharge and hospital levels, Medicaid characteristics are not significantly associated with the incidence of a pediatric patient safety event. Conclusions Our analysis offers additional insights to previous work and suggests a new factor—the Medicaid-payer market—as relevant to the issue of pediatric patient safety. PMID:17850529

Pharmacodynamic analysis of eribulin safety in breast cancer patients using real-world post-marketing surveillance data.

PubMed

Kawamura, Takahisa; Kasai, Hidefumi; Fermanelli, Valentina; Takahashi, Toshiaki; Sakata, Yukinori; Matsuoka, Toshiyuki; Ishii, Mika; Tanigawara, Yusuke

2018-06-22

Post-marketing surveillance is useful to collect safety data in real-world clinical settings. In this study, we firstly applied the post-marketing real-world data on a mechanistic model analysis for neutropenic profiles of eribulin in patients with recurrent or metastatic breast cancer (RBC/MBC). Demographic and safety data were collected using an active surveillance method from eribulin-treated RBC/MBC patients. Changes in neutrophil counts over time were analyzed using a mechanistic pharmacodynamic model. Pathophysiological factors that may affect the severity of neutropenia were investigated and neutropenic patterns were simulated for different treatment schedules. Clinical and laboratory data were collected from 401 patients (5199 neutrophil count measurements) who had not received granulocyte colony stimulating factor and were eligible for pharmacodynamic analysis. The estimated mean parameters were: mean transit time = 104.5 h, neutrophil proliferation rate constant = 0.0377 h -1 , neutrophil elimination rate constant = 0.0295 h -1 , and linear coefficient of drug effect = 0.0413 mL/ng. Low serum albumin levels and low baseline neutrophil counts were associated with severe neutropenia. The probability of grade ≥3 neutropenia was predicted to be 69%, 27%, and 27% for patients on standard, biweekly, and triweekly treatment scenarios, respectively, based on virtual simulations using the developed pharmacodynamic model. In conclusion, this is the first application of post-marketing surveillance data to a model-based safety analysis. This analysis of safety data reflecting authentic clinical settings will provide useful information on the safe use and potential risk factors of eribulin. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Dietitians employed by health care facilities preferred a HACCP system over irradiation or chemical rinses for reducing risk of foodborne disease.

PubMed

Giamalva, J N; Redfern, M; Bailey, W C

1998-08-01

To survey dietitians in health care facilities about the acceptability of alternative meat and poultry processing methods designed to reduce the risk of foodborne disease and their willingness to pay for these processes. A geographically representative sample of 600 members of The American Dietetic Association who work in health care facilities. The response rate was 250 completed questionnaires from 592 eligible subjects (42%). A mail survey was used to gather information on the acceptability of a Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) system, chemical rinses, and irradiation for increasing the safety of food. Discrete choice contingent valuation was used to determine the acceptability at current prices and at 5, 10, and 25 cents per pound above current prices. Logistic regression was used to estimate mean willingness to pay (the maximum amount respondents are willing to pay) for each process. A simultaneous equations regression model was used to estimate the effects of other variables on acceptability. Respondents expressed a high level of concern for food safety in health care facilities. The estimated mean willingness to pay was highest for a HACCP system and lowest for chemical rinses. The successful adoption of alternative methods to increase food safety depends on their acceptance by foodservice professionals. The professionals sampled were most accepting of a HACCP system, somewhat less accepting of irradiation, and least accepting of new chemical rinses. Poultry and beef processors and government agencies concerned with food safety may want to take into account the attitudes of foodservice professionals.

Probabilistic margin evaluation on accidental transients for the ASTRID reactor project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquès, Michel

2014-06-01

ASTRID is a technological demonstrator of Sodium cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) under development. The conceptual design studies are being conducted in accordance with the Generation IV reactor objectives, particularly in terms of improving safety. For the hypothetical events, belonging to the accidental category "severe accident prevention situations" having a very low frequency of occurrence, the safety demonstration is no more based on a deterministic demonstration with conservative assumptions on models and parameters but on a "Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty" (BEPU) approach. This BEPU approach ispresented in this paper for an Unprotected Loss-of-Flow (ULOF) event. The Best-Estimate (BE) analysis of this ULOFt ransient is performed with the CATHARE2 code, which is the French reference system code for SFR applications. The objective of the BEPU analysis is twofold: first evaluate the safety margin to sodium boiling in taking into account the uncertainties on the input parameters of the CATHARE2 code (twenty-two uncertain input parameters have been identified, which can be classified into five groups: reactor power, accident management, pumps characteristics, reactivity coefficients, thermal parameters and head losses); secondly quantify the contribution of each input uncertainty to the overall uncertainty of the safety margins, in order to refocusing R&D efforts on the most influential factors. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects of the evaluation of the safety margin. At least for the preliminary phase of the project (conceptual design), a probabilistic criterion has been fixed in the context of this BEPU analysis; this criterion is the value of the margin to sodium boiling, which has a probability 95% to be exceeded, obtained with a confidence level of 95% (i.e. the M5,95percentile of the margin distribution). This paper presents two methods used to assess this percentile: the Wilks method and the Bootstrap method ; the effectiveness of the two methods is compared on the basis of 500 simulations performed with theCATHARE2 code. We conclude that, with only 100 simulations performed with the CATHARE2 code, which is a number of simulations workable in the conceptual design phase of the ASTRID project where the models and the hypothesis are often modified, it is best in order to evaluate the percentile M5,95 of the margin to sodium boiling to use the bootstrap method, which will provide a slightly conservative result. On the other hand, in order to obtain an accurate estimation of the percentileM5,95, for the safety report for example, it will be necessary to perform at least 300 simulations with the CATHARE2 code. In this case, both methods (Wilks and Bootstrap) would give equivalent results.

Cost-benefit analysis of safety belts in Texas school buses.

PubMed

Begley, C E; Biddle, A K

1988-01-01

Although safety belts have been shown to reduce the risk of serious injury or death in automobile crashes, evidence of their effectiveness in school buses is uncertain. In this paper, the potential costs and benefits of mandatory safety belts in Texas school buses are estimated, based on the assumption that their effectiveness is less than or equal to rear seatbelt effectiveness in autos. Costs are based on both retrofitting old buses with belts and installing them in new buses. Benefits include the direct and indirect (forgone earnings) cost-savings from preventable injuries and fatalities. Results indicate that a law mandating safety belts in Texas school buses would not be cost-beneficial. Annual benefits would exceed the annual costs of installing belts in new school buses. However, the benefits would not be large enough to compensate for the five-year costs associated with retrofitting old buses.

Cost-benefit analysis of safety belts in Texas school buses.

PubMed Central

Begley, C E; Biddle, A K

1988-01-01

Although safety belts have been shown to reduce the risk of serious injury or death in automobile crashes, evidence of their effectiveness in school buses is uncertain. In this paper, the potential costs and benefits of mandatory safety belts in Texas school buses are estimated, based on the assumption that their effectiveness is less than or equal to rear seatbelt effectiveness in autos. Costs are based on both retrofitting old buses with belts and installing them in new buses. Benefits include the direct and indirect (forgone earnings) cost-savings from preventable injuries and fatalities. Results indicate that a law mandating safety belts in Texas school buses would not be cost-beneficial. Annual benefits would exceed the annual costs of installing belts in new school buses. However, the benefits would not be large enough to compensate for the five-year costs associated with retrofitting old buses. PMID:3140273

Total Diet Studies as a Tool for Ensuring Food Safety

PubMed Central

Lee, Joon-Goo; Kim, Sheen-Hee; Kim, Hae-Jung

2015-01-01

With the diversification and internationalization of the food industry and the increased focus on health from a majority of consumers, food safety policies are being implemented based on scientific evidence. Risk analysis represents the most useful scientific approach for making food safety decisions. Total diet study (TDS) is often used as a risk assessment tool to evaluate exposure to hazardous elements. Many countries perform TDSs to screen for chemicals in foods and analyze exposure trends to hazardous elements. TDSs differ from traditional food monitoring in two major aspects: chemicals are analyzed in food in the form in which it will be consumed and it is cost-effective in analyzing composite samples after processing multiple ingredients together. In Korea, TDSs have been conducted to estimate dietary intakes of heavy metals, pesticides, mycotoxins, persistent organic pollutants, and processing contaminants. TDSs need to be carried out periodically to ensure food safety. PMID:26483881

Statistical design and analysis of environmental studies for plutonium and other transuranics at NAEG ''safety-shot'' sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilbert, R.O.; Eberhardt, L.L.; Fowler, E.B.

This paper is centered around the use of stratified random sampling for estimating the total amount (inventory) of $sup 239-240$Pu and uranium in surface soil at ten ''safety-shot'' sites on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and Tonopah Test Range (TTR) that are currently being studied by the Nevada Applied Ecology Group (NAEG). The use of stratified random sampling has resulted in estimates of inventory at these desert study sites that have smaller standard errors than would have been the case had simple random sampling (no stratification) been used. Estimates of inventory are given for $sup 235$U, $sup 238$U, and $supmore » 239-240$Pu in soil at A Site of Area 11 on the NTS. Other results presented include average concentrations of one or more of these isotopes in soil and vegetation and in soil profile samples at depths to 25 cm. The regression relationship between soil and vegetation concentrations of $sup 235$U and $sup 238$U at adjacent sampling locations is also examined using three different models. The applicability of stratified random sampling to the estimation of concentration contours of $sup 239-240$Pu in surface soil using computer algorithms is also investigated. Estimates of such contours are obtained using several different methods. The planning of field sampling plans for estimating inventory and distribution is discussed. (auth)« less

[Pregnant women's food safety and nutritional status in Cartagena, Colombia 2011].

PubMed

López-Sáleme, Rossana; Díaz-Montes, Carmen E; Bravo-Aljuriz, Leidy; Londoño-Hio, Nataly P; Salguedo-Pájaro, Maireng del Carmen; Camargo-Marín, Casandra C; Osorio-Espitia, Eider

2012-01-01

Establishing an association between food safety and nutritional status in pregnant women in Cartagena. This was a cross-sectional study, using a sample of 413 pregnant women living in urban areas who were affiliated to healthcare-providing companies in Cartagena. A 95 % confidence level, 5 % error and 0.41 prevalence were used. they were stratified by proportional allocation; nutritional status was identified by anthropometric indicators plotted on a Rosso-Mardones nomogram and food safety was determined by a national survey of the situation. Stata 9.2 statistical software was used for a descriptive analysis of the data using frequencies, percentages, averages and standard deviations. The odds ratio (OR)* and p <0.05 significance level were estimated in bivariate analysis. Mean age was 24.3 years-old, 72.2 % were living with a partner and 52 % belonged to stratum 1; it was determined that 70.2 % had food safety. Regarding nutritional status, it was observed that 42 % had maintained appropriate weight during pregnancy. Food safety was not associated with nutritional status (OR 0.8; 0.5-1.3 95 %CI). A high percentage of pregnant women had altered nutritional status, tending towards deficit or towards increase reported as having food safety. This may have been because this study assessed food safety in relation to even though the pregnant women may have had food available, this did not guarantee that they consumed it in suitable quantities and/or quality, such aspects not having been evaluated in this study.

Assessing flight safety differences between the United States regional and major airlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharp, Broderick H.

During 2008, the U.S. domestic airline departures exceeded 28,000 flights per day. Thirty-nine or less than 0.2 of 1% of these flights resulted in operational incidents or accidents. However, even a low percentage of airline accidents and incidents continue to cause human suffering and property loss. The charge of this study was the comparison of U.S. major and regional airline safety histories. The study spans safety events from January 1982 through December 2008. In this quantitative analysis, domestic major and regional airlines were statistically tested for their flight safety differences. Four major airlines and thirty-seven regional airlines qualified for the safety study which compared the airline groups' fatal accidents, incidents, non-fatal accidents, pilot errors, and the remaining six safety event probable cause types. The six other probable cause types are mechanical failure, weather, air traffic control, maintenance, other, and unknown causes. The National Transportation Safety Board investigated each airline safety event, and assigned a probable cause to each event. A sample of 500 events was randomly selected from the 1,391 airlines' accident and incident population. The airline groups' safety event probabilities were estimated using the least squares linear regression. A probability significance level of 5% was chosen to conclude the appropriate research question hypothesis. The airline fatal accidents and incidents probability levels were 1.2% and 0.05% respectively. These two research questions did not reach the 5% significance level threshold. Therefore, the airline groups' fatal accidents and non-destructive incidents probabilities favored the airline groups' safety differences hypothesis. The linear progression estimates for the remaining three research questions were 71.5% for non-fatal accidents, 21.8% for the pilot errors, and 7.4% significance level for the six probable causes. These research questions' linear regressions are greater than the 5% level. Consequently, these three research questions favored airline groups' safety similarities hypothesis. The study indicates the U.S. domestic major airlines were safer than the regional airlines. Ideas for potential airline safety progress can examine pilot fatigue, the airline groups' hiring policies, the government's airline oversight personnel, or the comparison of individual airline's operational policies.

Preterm birth: Case definition & guidelines for data collection, analysis, and presentation of immunisation safety data.

PubMed

Quinn, Julie-Anne; Munoz, Flor M; Gonik, Bernard; Frau, Lourdes; Cutland, Clare; Mallett-Moore, Tamala; Kissou, Aimee; Wittke, Frederick; Das, Manoj; Nunes, Tony; Pye, Savia; Watson, Wendy; Ramos, Ana-Maria Alguacil; Cordero, Jose F; Huang, Wan-Ting; Kochhar, Sonali; Buttery, Jim

2016-12-01

Preterm birth is commonly defined as any birth before 37 weeks completed weeks of gestation. An estimated 15 million infants are born preterm globally, disproportionately affecting low and middle income countries (LMIC). It contributes directly to estimated one million neonatal deaths annually and is a significant contributor to childhood morbidity. However, in many clinical settings, the information available to calculate completed weeks of gestation varies widely. Accurate dating of the last menstrual period (LMP), as well as access to clinical and ultrasonographic evaluation are important components of gestational age assessment antenatally. This case definition assign levels of confidence to categorisation of births as preterm, utilising assessment modalities which may be available across different settings. These are designed to enable systematic safety evaluation of vaccine clinical trials and post-implementation programmes of immunisations in pregnancy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Context-Aware-Based Audio Guidance System for Blind People Using a Multimodal Profile Model

PubMed Central

Lin, Qing; Han, Youngjoon

2014-01-01

A wearable guidance system is designed to provide context-dependent guidance messages to blind people while they traverse local pathways. The system is composed of three parts: moving scene analysis, walking context estimation and audio message delivery. The combination of a downward-pointing laser scanner and a camera is used to solve the challenging problem of moving scene analysis. By integrating laser data profiles and image edge profiles, a multimodal profile model is constructed to estimate jointly the ground plane, object locations and object types, by using a Bayesian network. The outputs of the moving scene analysis are further employed to estimate the walking context, which is defined as a fuzzy safety level that is inferred through a fuzzy logic model. Depending on the estimated walking context, the audio messages that best suit the current context are delivered to the user in a flexible manner. The proposed system is tested under various local pathway scenes, and the results confirm its efficiency in assisting blind people to attain autonomous mobility. PMID:25302812

Canister Storage Building (CSB) Hazard Analysis Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

POWERS, T.B.

2000-03-16

This report describes the methodology used in conducting the Canister Storage Building (CSB) Hazard Analysis to support the final CSB Safety Analysis Report and documents the results. This report describes the methodology used in conducting the Canister Storage Building (CSB) hazard analysis to support the CSB final safety analysis report (FSAR) and documents the results. The hazard analysis process identified hazardous conditions and material-at-risk, determined causes for potential accidents, identified preventive and mitigative features, and qualitatively estimated the frequencies and consequences of specific occurrences. The hazard analysis was performed by a team of cognizant CSB operations and design personnel, safetymore » analysts familiar with the CSB, and technical experts in specialty areas. The material included in this report documents the final state of a nearly two-year long process. Attachment A provides two lists of hazard analysis team members and describes the background and experience of each. The first list is a complete list of the hazard analysis team members that have been involved over the two-year long process. The second list is a subset of the first list and consists of those hazard analysis team members that reviewed and agreed to the final hazard analysis documentation. The material included in this report documents the final state of a nearly two-year long process involving formal facilitated group sessions and independent hazard and accident analysis work. The hazard analysis process led to the selection of candidate accidents for further quantitative analysis. New information relative to the hazards, discovered during the accident analysis, was incorporated into the hazard analysis data in order to compile a complete profile of facility hazards. Through this process, the results of the hazard and accident analyses led directly to the identification of safety structures, systems, and components, technical safety requirements, and other controls required to protect the public, workers, and environment.« less

The Necessity of Functional Analysis for Space Exploration Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Breidenthal, Julian C.

2011-01-01

As NASA moves toward expanded commercial spaceflight within its human exploration capability, there is increased emphasis on how to allocate responsibilities between government and commercial organizations to achieve coordinated program objectives. The practice of program-level functional analysis offers an opportunity for improved understanding of collaborative functions among heterogeneous partners. Functional analysis is contrasted with the physical analysis more commonly done at the program level, and is shown to provide theoretical performance, risk, and safety advantages beneficial to a government-commercial partnership. Performance advantages include faster convergence to acceptable system solutions; discovery of superior solutions with higher commonality, greater simplicity and greater parallelism by substituting functional for physical redundancy to achieve robustness and safety goals; and greater organizational cohesion around program objectives. Risk advantages include avoidance of rework by revelation of some kinds of architectural and contractual mismatches before systems are specified, designed, constructed, or integrated; avoidance of cost and schedule growth by more complete and precise specifications of cost and schedule estimates; and higher likelihood of successful integration on the first try. Safety advantages include effective delineation of must-work and must-not-work functions for integrated hazard analysis, the ability to formally demonstrate completeness of safety analyses, and provably correct logic for certification of flight readiness. The key mechanism for realizing these benefits is the development of an inter-functional architecture at the program level, which reveals relationships between top-level system requirements that would otherwise be invisible using only a physical architecture. This paper describes the advantages and pitfalls of functional analysis as a means of coordinating the actions of large heterogeneous organizations for space exploration programs.

Traffic safety facts 2004 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

Fatal crash data from FARS and nonfatal crash data from GES are presented in this report in five chapters. Chapter 1, Trends, presents data from all years of FARS (1975 through 2004) and GES (1988 through 2004). The remaining chapters present d...

Residential building codes, affordability, and health protection: a risk-tradeoff approach.

PubMed

Hammitt, J K; Belsky, E S; Levy, J I; Graham, J D

1999-12-01

Residential building codes intended to promote health and safety may produce unintended countervailing risks by adding to the cost of construction. Higher construction costs increase the price of new homes and may increase health and safety risks through "income" and "stock" effects. The income effect arises because households that purchase a new home have less income remaining for spending on other goods that contribute to health and safety. The stock effect arises because suppression of new-home construction leads to slower replacement of less safe housing units. These countervailing risks are not presently considered in code debates. We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating the approximate magnitude of countervailing risks by combining the income effect with three relatively well understood and significant home-health risks. We estimate that a code change that increases the nationwide cost of constructing and maintaining homes by $150 (0.1% of the average cost to build a single-family home) would induce offsetting risks yielding between 2 and 60 premature fatalities or, including morbidity effects, between 20 and 800 lost quality-adjusted life years (both discounted at 3%) each year the code provision remains in effect. To provide a net health benefit, the code change would need to reduce risk by at least this amount. Future research should refine these estimates, incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis, and apply a full risk-tradeoff approach to real-world case studies of proposed code changes.

Current and anticipated uses of thermal hydraulic codes in Korea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Kyung-Doo; Chang, Won-Pyo

1997-07-01

In Korea, the current uses of thermal hydraulic codes are categorized into 3 areas. The first application is in designing both nuclear fuel and NSSS. The codes have usually been introduced based on the technology transfer programs agreed between KAERI and the foreign vendors. Another area is in the supporting of the plant operations and licensing by the utility. The third category is research purposes. In this area assessments and some applications to the safety issue resolutions are major activities using the best estimate thermal hydraulic codes such as RELAP5/MOD3 and CATHARE2. Recently KEPCO plans to couple thermal hydraulic codesmore » with a neutronics code for the design of the evolutionary type reactor by 2004. KAERI also plans to develop its own best estimate thermal hydraulic code, however, application range is different from KEPCO developing code. Considering these activities, it is anticipated that use of the best estimate hydraulic analysis code developed in Korea may be possible in the area of safety evaluation within 10 years.« less

Meta-Analysis of Effectiveness and Safety of Oral Anticoagulants in Atrial Fibrillation With Focus on Apixaban.

PubMed

Bai, Ying; Shi, Xu-Bo; Ma, Chang-Sheng; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-11-01

We performed a meta-analysis of data on the effectiveness and safety of apixaban compared with other oral anticoagulants (warfarin or rivaroxaban or dabigatran or edoxaban) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) in different settings of randomized controlled trials, real-world studies, and radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Thirty studies were searched in PubMed, the Cochrane Library, and Clinicaltrials.gov databases reporting comparative effectiveness and safety of apixaban with warfarin (n = 23), rivaroxaban (n = 12), dabigatran (n = 13), or edoxaban (n = 2) for stroke prevention in AF. In real-world estimates, apixaban was similar to warfarin for the prevention of stroke or systematic thromboembolism (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.14, I 2  = 82.9%, N = 7), and safer than warfarin in the risks of major bleeding (hazard ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.70, I 2  = 18.7%, N = 9) in patients with AF. The risk of stroke or thromboembolism with apixaban was similar to rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban in the settings of real-world studies and RFA. Major bleeding with apixaban was generally lower than rivaroxaban (relative risks 0.45, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.53, I 2  = 0%, N = 5) and similar to dabigatran in real-world studies (relative risks 1.44, 95% CI 0.33 to 6.30, I 2  = 97.7%, N = 5), but similar to rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban in RFA. In conclusion, our meta-analysis provides a comprehensive estimate of the effectiveness and safety of apixaban compared with other oral anticoagulants (warfarin, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban) in patients with AF in different settings of randomized controlled trial, real-world studies, and RFA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are metals emitted from electronic cigarettes a reason for health concern? A risk-assessment analysis of currently available literature.

PubMed

Farsalinos, Konstantinos E; Voudris, Vassilis; Poulas, Konstantinos

2015-05-15

Studies have found that metals are emitted to the electronic cigarette (EC) aerosol. However, the potential health impact of exposure to such metals has not been adequately defined. The purpose of this study was to perform a risk assessment analysis, evaluating the exposure of electronic cigarette (EC) users to metal emissions based on findings from the published literature. Two studies were found in the literature, measuring metals emitted to the aerosol from 13 EC products. We estimated that users take on average 600 EC puffs per day, but we evaluated the daily exposure from 1200 puffs. Estimates of exposure were compared with the chronic Permissible Daily Exposure (PDE) from inhalational medications defined by the U.S. Pharmacopeia (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead and nickel), the Minimal Risk Level (MRL) defined by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (manganese) and the Recommended Exposure Limit (REL) defined by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (aluminum, barium, iron, tin, titanium, zinc and zirconium). The average daily exposure from 13 EC products was 2.6 to 387 times lower than the safety cut-off point of PDEs, 325 times lower than the safety limit of MRL and 665 to 77,514 times lower than the safety cut-off point of RELs. Only one of the 13 products was found to result in exposure 10% higher than PDE for one metal (cadmium) at the extreme daily use of 1200 puffs. Significant differences in emissions between products were observed. Based on currently available data, overall exposure to metals from EC use is not expected to be of significant health concern for smokers switching to EC use, but is an unnecessary source of exposure for never-smokers. Metal analysis should be expanded to more products and exposure can be further reduced through improvements in product quality and appropriate choice of materials.

Minimizing treatment planning errors in proton therapy using failure mode and effects analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Yuanshui, E-mail: yuanshui.zheng@okc.procure.com; Johnson, Randall; Larson, Gary

Purpose: Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a widely used tool to evaluate safety or reliability in conventional photon radiation therapy. However, reports about FMEA application in proton therapy are scarce. The purpose of this study is to apply FMEA in safety improvement of proton treatment planning at their center. Methods: The authors performed an FMEA analysis of their proton therapy treatment planning process using uniform scanning proton beams. The authors identified possible failure modes in various planning processes, including image fusion, contouring, beam arrangement, dose calculation, plan export, documents, billing, and so on. For each error, the authorsmore » estimated the frequency of occurrence, the likelihood of being undetected, and the severity of the error if it went undetected and calculated the risk priority number (RPN). The FMEA results were used to design their quality management program. In addition, the authors created a database to track the identified dosimetric errors. Periodically, the authors reevaluated the risk of errors by reviewing the internal error database and improved their quality assurance program as needed. Results: In total, the authors identified over 36 possible treatment planning related failure modes and estimated the associated occurrence, detectability, and severity to calculate the overall risk priority number. Based on the FMEA, the authors implemented various safety improvement procedures into their practice, such as education, peer review, and automatic check tools. The ongoing error tracking database provided realistic data on the frequency of occurrence with which to reevaluate the RPNs for various failure modes. Conclusions: The FMEA technique provides a systematic method for identifying and evaluating potential errors in proton treatment planning before they result in an error in patient dose delivery. The application of FMEA framework and the implementation of an ongoing error tracking system at their clinic have proven to be useful in error reduction in proton treatment planning, thus improving the effectiveness and safety of proton therapy.« less

Minimizing treatment planning errors in proton therapy using failure mode and effects analysis.

PubMed

Zheng, Yuanshui; Johnson, Randall; Larson, Gary

2016-06-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a widely used tool to evaluate safety or reliability in conventional photon radiation therapy. However, reports about FMEA application in proton therapy are scarce. The purpose of this study is to apply FMEA in safety improvement of proton treatment planning at their center. The authors performed an FMEA analysis of their proton therapy treatment planning process using uniform scanning proton beams. The authors identified possible failure modes in various planning processes, including image fusion, contouring, beam arrangement, dose calculation, plan export, documents, billing, and so on. For each error, the authors estimated the frequency of occurrence, the likelihood of being undetected, and the severity of the error if it went undetected and calculated the risk priority number (RPN). The FMEA results were used to design their quality management program. In addition, the authors created a database to track the identified dosimetric errors. Periodically, the authors reevaluated the risk of errors by reviewing the internal error database and improved their quality assurance program as needed. In total, the authors identified over 36 possible treatment planning related failure modes and estimated the associated occurrence, detectability, and severity to calculate the overall risk priority number. Based on the FMEA, the authors implemented various safety improvement procedures into their practice, such as education, peer review, and automatic check tools. The ongoing error tracking database provided realistic data on the frequency of occurrence with which to reevaluate the RPNs for various failure modes. The FMEA technique provides a systematic method for identifying and evaluating potential errors in proton treatment planning before they result in an error in patient dose delivery. The application of FMEA framework and the implementation of an ongoing error tracking system at their clinic have proven to be useful in error reduction in proton treatment planning, thus improving the effectiveness and safety of proton therapy.

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

2017-08-01

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimating the Size and Cost of the STD Prevention Services Safety Net.

PubMed

Gift, Thomas L; Haderxhanaj, Laura T; Torrone, Elizabeth A; Behl, Ajay S; Romaguera, Raul A; Leichliter, Jami S

2015-01-01

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is expected to reduce the number of uninsured people in the United States during the next eight years, but more than 10% are expected to remain uninsured. Uninsured people are one of the main populations using publicly funded safety net sexually transmitted disease (STD) prevention services. Estimating the proportion of the uninsured population expected to need STD services could help identify the potential demand for safety net STD services and improve program planning. In 2013, an estimated 8.27 million people met the criteria for being in need of STD services. In 2023, 4.70 million uninsured people are expected to meet the criteria for being in need of STD services. As an example, the cost in 2014 U.S. dollars of providing chlamydia screening to these people was an estimated $271.1 million in 2013 and is estimated to be $153.8 million in 2023. A substantial need will continue to exist for safety net STD prevention services in coming years.

Estimating the Size and Cost of the STD Prevention Services Safety Net

PubMed Central

Haderxhanaj, Laura T.; Torrone, Elizabeth A.; Behl, Ajay S.; Romaguera, Raul A.; Leichliter, Jami S.

2015-01-01

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is expected to reduce the number of uninsured people in the United States during the next eight years, but more than 10% are expected to remain uninsured. Uninsured people are one of the main populations using publicly funded safety net sexually transmitted disease (STD) prevention services. Estimating the proportion of the uninsured population expected to need STD services could help identify the potential demand for safety net STD services and improve program planning. In 2013, an estimated 8.27 million people met the criteria for being in need of STD services. In 2023, 4.70 million uninsured people are expected to meet the criteria for being in need of STD services. As an example, the cost in 2014 U.S. dollars of providing chlamydia screening to these people was an estimated $271.1 million in 2013 and is estimated to be $153.8 million in 2023. A substantial need will continue to exist for safety net STD prevention services in coming years. PMID:26556931

Comparative health and safety assessment of the SPS and alternative electrical generation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habegger, L. J.; Gasper, J. R.; Brown, C. D.

1980-07-01

A comparative analysis of health and safety risks is presented for the Satellite Power System and five alternative baseload electrical generation systems: a low-Btu coal gasification system with an open-cycle gas turbine combined with a steam topping cycle; a light water fission reactor system without fuel reprocessing; a liquid metal fast breeder fission reactor system; a central station terrestrial photovoltaic system; and a first generation fusion system with magnetic confinement. For comparison, risk from a decentralized roof-top photovoltaic system with battery storage is also evaluated. Quantified estimates of public and occupational risks within ranges of uncertainty were developed for each phase of the energy system. The potential significance of related major health and safety issues that remain unquantitied are also discussed.

General aviation crash safety program at Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomson, R. G.

1976-01-01

The purpose of the crash safety program is to support development of the technology to define and demonstrate new structural concepts for improved crash safety and occupant survivability in general aviation aircraft. The program involves three basic areas of research: full-scale crash simulation testing, nonlinear structural analyses necessary to predict failure modes and collapse mechanisms of the vehicle, and evaluation of energy absorption concepts for specific component design. Both analytical and experimental methods are being used to develop expertise in these areas. Analyses include both simplified procedures for estimating energy absorption capabilities and more complex computer programs for analysis of general airframe response. Full-scale tests of typical structures as well as tests on structural components are being used to verify the analyses and to demonstrate improved design concepts.

Comparative health and safety assessment of the SPS and alternative electrical generation systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habegger, L. J.; Gasper, J. R.; Brown, C. D.

1980-01-01

A comparative analysis of health and safety risks is presented for the Satellite Power System and five alternative baseload electrical generation systems: a low-Btu coal gasification system with an open-cycle gas turbine combined with a steam topping cycle; a light water fission reactor system without fuel reprocessing; a liquid metal fast breeder fission reactor system; a central station terrestrial photovoltaic system; and a first generation fusion system with magnetic confinement. For comparison, risk from a decentralized roof-top photovoltaic system with battery storage is also evaluated. Quantified estimates of public and occupational risks within ranges of uncertainty were developed for each phase of the energy system. The potential significance of related major health and safety issues that remain unquantitied are also discussed.

State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

PubMed

Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The safety and effectiveness profile of eldecalcitol in a prospective, post-marketing observational study in Japanese male patients with osteoporosis.

PubMed

Kondo, Satoshi; Kakihata, Hiroyuki; Nishida, Yosuke; Furuno, Yuko; Kobayashi, Yumiko; Tabata, Hidehiro; Nomura, Makoto

2018-03-12

We conducted a post-marketing observational study to investigate the safety and effectiveness of eldecalcitol for the treatment of osteoporosis in a Japanese clinical setting. The observation period was 12 months for women and 36 months for men. The final results for the female patients have already been published. In this article, the final results for the male patients are reported. A total of 470 male osteoporosis patients were enrolled. The safety analysis set included 431 patients (mean age, 76.8 years; mean ± SD follow-up period, 631.0 ± 450.3 days), and 175 patients continued treatment throughout the 3-year observational period. Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) were reported in 28 patients (6.49%); the most common ADRs were hypercalcemia (1.16%) and renal impairment (1.16%). Serious ADRs were reported in 5 patients (1.16%). Mean serum calcium was within the normal range throughout the observation period. The cumulative incidence of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures at 36 months, estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis, was 10.23 and 4.06%, respectively. At the last observation, mean lumbar spine bone mineral density was 3.49% higher (P < 0.0001) than at baseline, and levels of the bone turnover markers BAP and TRACP-5b were reduced (-14.64%; P = 0.0009, and - 29.51%; P < 0.0001, respectively). In conclusion, the safety and effectiveness of eldecalcitol for the treatment of Japanese male osteoporosis patients was confirmed in clinical practice. Careful monitoring of serum calcium and estimated glomerular filtration rate, both before and during treatment, is necessary to minimize the risk of hypercalcemia and renal impairment while maximizing the effectiveness of eldecalcitol.

Investigating the influence on safety of retrofitting Italian motorways with barriers meeting a new EU standard.

PubMed

Cafiso, Salvatore; D'Agostino, Carmelo; Persaud, Bhagwant

2017-04-03

A new European Union (EU) regulation for safety barriers, which is based on performance, has encouraged road agencies to perform an upgrade of old barriers, with the expectation that there will be safety benefits at the retrofitted sites. The new class of barriers was designed and installed in compliance with the 1998 (European Norm) EN 1317 standards for road restraint systems, which lays down common requirements for the testing and certification of road restraint systems in all countries of the European Committee for Standardization (CEN). Both the older and new barriers are made of steel and are installed in such a way as to avoid vehicle intrusion, but the older ones are thought to be only effective at low speeds and large angles of impact. The new standard seeks to remedy this by providing better protection at higher speeds. This article seeks to quantify the effect on the frequency of fatal and injury crashes of retrofitting motorways with barriers meeting the new standards. The estimation of the crash modification was carried out by performing an empirical Bayes before-after analysis based on data from the A18 Messina-Catania motorway in Italy. The methodology has the great advantage to account for the regression to the mean effects. Besides, to account for time trend effects and dispersion of crash data, a modified calibration methodology of safety performance was used. This study, based on data collected on 76 km of motorway in the period 2000-2012, derived Crash Modification Factor point estimates that indicate reductions of 72% for run-off-road fatal and injury crashes and 38% in total fatal and injury crashes that could be expected by upgrading an old safety barrier by complying with new EU 1317 standards. The estimated benefit-cost ratio of 5.57 for total crashes indicates that the treatment is cost effective. The magnitude of this benefit indicates that the retrofits are cost-effective even for total crashes and should continue in any European country inasmuch as the estimated Crash Modification Factors are based on treatment sites that are reasonably representative of all European motorways.

Common Day Care Safety Renovations: Descriptions, Explanations and Cost Estimates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spack, Stan

This booklet explains some of the day care safety features specified by the new Massachusetts State Building Code (January 1, 1975) which must be met before a new day care center can be licensed. The safety features described are those which most often require renovation to meet the building code standards. Best estimates of the costs involved in…

A Spanish-language patient safety questionnaire to measure medical and nursing students' attitudes and knowledge.

PubMed

Mira, José J; Navarro, Isabel M; Guilabert, Mercedes; Poblete, Rodrigo; Franco, Astolfo L; Jiménez, Pilar; Aquino, Margarita; Fernández-Trujillo, Francisco J; Lorenzo, Susana; Vitaller, Julián; de Valle, Yohana Díaz; Aibar, Carlos; Aranaz, Jesús M; De Pedro, José A

2015-08-01

To design and validate a questionnaire for assessing attitudes and knowledge about patient safety using a sample of medical and nursing students undergoing clinical training in Spain and four countries in Latin America. In this cross-sectional study, a literature review was carried out and total of 786 medical and nursing students were surveyed at eight universities from five countries (Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Spain) to develop and refine a Spanish-language questionnaire on knowledge and attitudes about patient safety. The scope of the questionnaire was based on five dimensions (factors) presented in studies related to patient safety culture found in PubMed and Scopus. Based on the five factors, 25 reactive items were developed. Composite reliability indexes and Cronbach's alpha statistics were estimated for each factor, and confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to assess validity. After a pilot test, the questionnaire was refined using confirmatory models, maximum-likelihood estimation, and the variance-covariance matrix (as input). Multiple linear regression models were used to confirm external validity, considering variables related to patient safety culture as dependent variables and the five factors as independent variables. The final instrument was a structured five-point Likert self-administered survey (the "Latino Student Patient Safety Questionnaire") consisting of 21 items grouped into five factors. Compound reliability indexes (Cronbach's alpha statistic) calculated for the five factors were about 0.7 or higher. The results of the multiple linear regression analyses indicated good model fit (goodness-of-fit index: 0.9). Item-total correlations were higher than 0.3 in all cases. The convergent-discriminant validity was adequate. The questionnaire designed and validated in this study assesses nursing and medical students' attitudes and knowledge about patient safety. This instrument could be used to indirectly evaluate whether or not students in health disciplines are acquiring and thus likely to put into practice the professional skills currently considered most appropriate for patient safety.

Estimating the Prevalence of Heat-Related Symptoms and Sun Safety-Related Behavior among Latino Farmworkers in Eastern North Carolina.

PubMed

Kearney, Gregory D; Hu, Hui; Xu, Xiaohui; Hall, Marla B; Balanay, Jo Anne G

2016-01-01

In hot weather, thermal heat generated by the body, combined with environmental heat from the sun, can lead outdoor workers to experience heat-related stress, severe illness, or even death. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of heat-related symptoms and potential risk factors associated with sun safety-related behavior among Latino farmworkers. Data from interviewer-administered questionnaires were collected from a cross-sectional survey among farmworkers (N = 158) from August to September 2013. Data analysis assessed associations between work activities, sun safety behavior, and the prevalence of heat-related illness (HRI) symptoms among workers. Nearly two thirds (72%) of farmworkers experienced at least one HRI symptom and lacked proper cooling methods when working outdoors. Most workers reported wearing long-sleeved shirts (85%), long pants (98%), and baseball caps (93%). The prevalence of having one HRI symptom was 72% and 27% among workers having three or more HRI symptoms. The majority of farmworkers experience symptoms of HRI and are not provided with proper shade protection when working outdoors. Increased emphasis on administrative controls, particularly educating field supervisors and workers on how to avoid and recognize HRI, should be a priority.

[Using fractional polynomials to estimate the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water].

PubMed

Pan, Shenling; An, Wei; Li, Hongyan; Yang, Min

2014-01-01

To study the dose-response relationship between fluoride content in drinking water and prevalence of dental fluorosis on the national scale, then to determine the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water. Meta-regression analysis was applied to the 2001-2002 national endemic fluorosis survey data of key wards. First, fractional polynomial (FP) was adopted to establish fixed effect model, determining the best FP structure, after that restricted maximum likelihood (REML) was adopted to estimate between-study variance, then the best random effect model was established. The best FP structure was first-order logarithmic transformation. Based on the best random effect model, the benchmark dose (BMD) of fluoride in drinking water and its lower limit (BMDL) was calculated as 0.98 mg/L and 0.78 mg/L. Fluoride in drinking water can only explain 35.8% of the variability of the prevalence, among other influencing factors, ward type was a significant factor, while temperature condition and altitude were not. Fractional polynomial-based meta-regression method is simple, practical and can provide good fitting effect, based on it, the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water of our country is determined as 0.8 mg/L.

Structural analysis of a rehabilitative training system based on a ceiling rail for safety of hemiplegia patients.

PubMed

Kim, Kyong; Song, Won Kyung; Chong, Woo Suk; Yu, Chang Ho

2018-04-17

The body-weight support (BWS) function, which helps to decrease load stresses on a user, is an effective tool for gait and balance rehabilitation training for elderly people with weakened lower-extremity muscular strength, hemiplegic patients, etc. This study conducts structural analysis to secure user safety in order to develop a rail-type gait and balance rehabilitation training system (RRTS). The RRTS comprises a rail, trolley, and brain-machine interface. The rail (platform) is connected to the ceiling structure, bearing the loads of the RRTS and of the user and allowing locomobility. The trolley consists of a smart drive unit (SDU) that assists the user with forward and backward mobility and a body-weight support (BWS) unit that helps the user to control his/her body-weight load, depending on the severity of his/her hemiplegia. The brain-machine interface estimates and measures on a real-time basis the body-weight (load) of the user and the intended direction of his/her movement. Considering the weight of the system and the user, the mechanical safety performance of the system frame under an applied 250-kg static load is verified through structural analysis using ABAQUS (6.14-3) software. The maximum stresses applied on the rail and trolley under the given gravity load of 250 kg, respectively, are 18.52 MPa and 48.44 MPa. The respective safety factors are computed to be 7.83 and 5.26, confirming the RRTS's mechanical safety. An RRTS with verified structural safety could be utilized for gait movement and balance rehabilitation and training for patients with hemiplegia.

The role of the PIRT process in identifying code improvements and executing code development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.

1997-07-01

In September 1988, the USNRC issued a revised ECCS rule for light water reactors that allows, as an option, the use of best estimate (BE) plus uncertainty methods in safety analysis. The key feature of this licensing option relates to quantification of the uncertainty in the determination that an NPP has a {open_quotes}low{close_quotes} probability of violating the safety criteria specified in 10 CFR 50. To support the 1988 licensing revision, the USNRC and its contractors developed the CSAU evaluation methodology to demonstrate the feasibility of the BE plus uncertainty approach. The PIRT process, Step 3 in the CSAU methodology, wasmore » originally formulated to support the BE plus uncertainty licensing option as executed in the CSAU approach to safety analysis. Subsequent work has shown the PIRT process to be a much more powerful tool than conceived in its original form. Through further development and application, the PIRT process has shown itself to be a robust means to establish safety analysis computer code phenomenological requirements in their order of importance to such analyses. Used early in research directed toward these objectives, PIRT results also provide the technical basis and cost effective organization for new experimental programs needed to improve the safety analysis codes for new applications. The primary purpose of this paper is to describe the generic PIRT process, including typical and common illustrations from prior applications. The secondary objective is to provide guidance to future applications of the process to help them focus, in a graded approach, on systems, components, processes and phenomena that have been common in several prior applications.« less

Perceived risk and modal choice: risk compensation in transportation systems.

PubMed

Noland, R B

1995-08-01

A transportation mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to perceived risk in the choice of mode for daily commute trips. This methodology provides a technique for examining, by means of disaggregate individual level data, risk-compensating effects in transportation systems. Various measures of perceived risk are examined for explaining modal choice. Other studies have described how safety regulations have resulted in increases in "driving intensity." This study defines one component of driving intensity to be the increased probability of commuting by automobile. The results show that modal shifts occur when risk perceptions for a given mode are reduced. To demonstrate potential risk-compensating effects within the transportation system, an estimate of changes in accident fatalities due to commuting is derived using rough estimates of fatalities per person-mile travelled. It is shown that a given change in the perceived risk of commuting by automobile results in a less than proportionate change in net commuting fatalities. The relative magnitude is dependent on how objective reductions in risk translate into perceived reductions in risk. This study also shows that perceived safety improvements in bicycle transportation have an aggregate elasticity value that is greater than one. This means that bicycle safety improvements attract proportionately more people to bicycle commuting (i.e. a 10% increase in safety results in a greater than 10% increase in the share of people bicycle commuting).

Safety outcomes in the United States: trends and challenges in measurement.

PubMed

Greenberg, Michael D; Haviland, Amelia M; Yu, Hao; Farley, Donna O

2009-04-01

To prepare Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) for monitoring the impact of its own patient safety initiative, by exploring available outcomes data, assessing usability of measures, and estimating national trends in patient outcomes. Annual summary data on incidence of Joint Commission Sentinel Events, MEDMARX medication error events, and MDS measures of falls and pressure ulcers in nursing home residents. HCUP National Inpatient Sample (NIS) administrative claims data. Description and assessment of published summary data on selected safety measures. Analysis of selected Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) and Utah–Missouri adverse event measures using HCUP NIS claims data (1994–2003). Interpretation of safety outcome trends requires close attention to the characteristics of underlying data sources and measures. Encounter-based measures have been affected by changes in definitions and ICD-9 coding, as well as by changes in the structure of administrative datasets like HCUP NIS. Historical trends are mixed for the safety outcome measures reviewed, with some measures showing improvement, others deterioration, and still others remaining fairly stable. Constructing national trends of safety outcomes is difficult because of limitations in available data sources and measures. Tracking growth in the adoption of safe practices could offer an important strategy for complementing existing safety measurement capabilities.

Safety of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in patients with epilepsy: A systematic review.

PubMed

Pereira, Luisa Santos; Müller, Vanessa Teixeira; da Mota Gomes, Marleide; Rotenberg, Alexander; Fregni, Felipe

2016-04-01

Approximately one-third of patients with epilepsy remain with pharmacologically intractable seizures. An emerging therapeutic modality for seizure suppression is repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). Despite being considered a safe technique, rTMS carries the risk of inducing seizures, among other milder adverse events, and thus, its safety in the population with epilepsy should be continuously assessed. We performed an updated systematic review on the safety and tolerability of rTMS in patients with epilepsy, similar to a previous report published in 2007 (Bae EH, Schrader LM, Machii K, Alonso-Alonso M, Riviello JJ, Pascual-Leone A, Rotenberg A. Safety and tolerability of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in patients with epilepsy: a review of the literature. Epilepsy Behav. 2007; 10 (4): 521-8), and estimated the risk of seizures and other adverse events during or shortly after rTMS application. We searched the literature for reports of rTMS being applied on patients with epilepsy, with no time or language restrictions, and obtained studies published from January 1990 to August 2015. A total of 46 publications were identified, of which 16 were new studies published after the previous safety review of 2007. We noted the total number of subjects with epilepsy undergoing rTMS, medication usage, incidence of adverse events, and rTMS protocol parameters: frequency, intensity, total number of stimuli, train duration, intertrain intervals, coil type, and stimulation site. Our main data analysis included separate calculations for crude per subject risk of seizure and other adverse events, as well as risk per 1000 stimuli. We also performed an exploratory, secondary analysis on the risk of seizure and other adverse events according to the type of coil used (figure-of-8 or circular), stimulation frequency (≤ 1 Hz or > 1 Hz), pulse intensity in terms of motor threshold (<100% or ≥ 100%), and number of stimuli per session (< 500 or ≥ 500). Presence or absence of adverse events was reported in 40 studies (n = 426 subjects). A total of 78 (18.3%) subjects reported adverse events, of which 85% were mild. Headache or dizziness was the most common one, occurring in 8.9%. We found a crude per subject seizure risk of 2.9% (95% CI: 1.3-4.5), given that 12 subjects reported seizures out of 410 subjects included in the analysis after data of patients with epilepsia partialis continua or status epilepticus were excluded from the estimate. Only one of the reported seizures was considered atypical in terms of the clinical characteristics of the patients' baseline seizures. The atypical seizure happened during high-frequency rTMS with maximum stimulator output for speech arrest, clinically arising from the region of stimulation. Although we estimated a larger crude per subject seizure risk compared with the previous safety review, the corresponding confidence intervals contained both risks. Furthermore, the exclusive case of atypical seizure was the same as reported in the previous report. We conclude that the risk of seizure induction in patients with epilepsy undergoing rTMS is small and that the risk of other adverse events is similar to that of rTMS applied to other conditions and to healthy subjects. Our results should be interpreted with caution, given the need for adjusted analysis controlling for potential confounders, such as baseline seizure frequency. The similarity between the safety profiles of rTMS applied to the population with epilepsy and to individuals without epilepsy supports further investigation of rTMS as a therapy for seizure suppression. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

75 FR 81165 - Examinations of Work Areas in Underground Coal Mines for Violations of Mandatory Health or Safety...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-27

... number of studies have shown a correlation between higher job risk and higher wages, suggesting that... & Aldy (2003) conducted an analysis of studies that use a willingness-to-pay methodology to estimate the...). Although MSHA is using the Viscusi & Aldy (2003) study as the basis for monetizing the expected benefits of...

A procedure for analysis of guyline tension.

Treesearch

Ward W. Carson; Jens E. Jorgensen; Stephen E. Reutebuch; William J. Bramwell

1982-01-01

Most cable logging operations use a spar held in place near the landing by a system of guylines and anchors. Safety and economic considerations require that overloads be avoided and that the spar remain stable. This paper presents a procedure and a computer program to estimate the guyline and anchor loads on a particular system configuration by a specific set of...

Variability of patient safety culture in Belgian acute hospitals.

PubMed

Vlayen, Annemie; Schrooten, Ward; Wami, Welcome; Aerts, Marc; Barrado, Leandro Garcia; Claes, Neree; Hellings, Johan

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to measure differences in safety culture perceptions within Belgian acute hospitals and to examine variability based on language, work area, staff position, and work experience. The Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture was distributed to hospitals participating in the national quality and safety program (2007-2009). Hospitals were invited to participate in a comparative study. Data of 47,136 respondents from 89 acute hospitals were used for quantitative analysis. Percentages of positive response were calculated on 12 dimensions. Generalized estimating equations models were fitted to explore differences in safety culture. Handoffs and transitions, staffing, and management support for patient safety were considered as major problem areas. Dutch-speaking hospitals had higher odds of positive perceptions for most dimensions in comparison with French-speaking hospitals. Safety culture scores were more positive for respondents working in pediatrics, psychiatry, and rehabilitation compared with the emergency department, operating theater, and multiple hospital units. We found an important gap in safety culture perceptions between leaders and assistants within disciplines. Administration and middle management had lower perceptions toward patient safety. Respondents working less than 1 year in the current hospital had more positive safety culture perceptions in comparison with all other respondents. Large comparative databases provide the opportunity to identify distinct high and low scoring groups. In our study, language, work area, and profession were identified as important safety culture predictors. Years of experience in the hospital had only a small effect on safety culture perceptions.

Near real-time adverse drug reaction surveillance within population-based health networks: methodology considerations for data accrual.

PubMed

Avery, Taliser R; Kulldorff, Martin; Vilk, Yury; Li, Lingling; Cheetham, T Craig; Dublin, Sascha; Davis, Robert L; Liu, Liyan; Herrinton, Lisa; Brown, Jeffrey S

2013-05-01

This study describes practical considerations for implementation of near real-time medical product safety surveillance in a distributed health data network. We conducted pilot active safety surveillance comparing generic divalproex sodium to historical branded product at four health plans from April to October 2009. Outcomes reported are all-cause emergency room visits and fractures. One retrospective data extract was completed (January 2002-June 2008), followed by seven prospective monthly extracts (January 2008-November 2009). To evaluate delays in claims processing, we used three analytic approaches: near real-time sequential analysis, sequential analysis with 1.5 month delay, and nonsequential (using final retrospective data). Sequential analyses used the maximized sequential probability ratio test. Procedural and logistical barriers to active surveillance were documented. We identified 6586 new users of generic divalproex sodium and 43,960 new users of the branded product. Quality control methods identified 16 extract errors, which were corrected. Near real-time extracts captured 87.5% of emergency room visits and 50.0% of fractures, which improved to 98.3% and 68.7% respectively with 1.5 month delay. We did not identify signals for either outcome regardless of extract timeframe, and slight differences in the test statistic and relative risk estimates were found. Near real-time sequential safety surveillance is feasible, but several barriers warrant attention. Data quality review of each data extract was necessary. Although signal detection was not affected by delay in analysis, when using a historical control group differential accrual between exposure and outcomes may theoretically bias near real-time risk estimates towards the null, causing failure to detect a signal. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Crime, perceived safety, and physical activity: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rees-Punia, Erika; Hathaway, Elizabeth D; Gay, Jennifer L

2018-06-01

Perceived safety from crime and objectively-measured crime rates may be associated with physical inactivity. The purpose of this meta-analysis is to estimate the odds of accumulating high levels of physical activity (PA) when the perception of safety from crime is high and when objectively-measured crime is high. Peer-reviewed studies were identified through PubMed, Web of Science, ProQuest Criminal Justice, and ScienceDirect from earliest record through 2016. Included studies measured total PA, leisure-time PA, or walking in addition to perceived safety from crime or objective measures of crime. Mean odds ratios were aggregated with random effects models, and meta-regression was used to examine effects of potential moderators: country, age, and crime/PA measure. Sixteen cross-sectional studies yielded sixteen effects for perceived safety from crime and four effects for objective crime. Those reporting feeling safe from crime had a 27% greater odds of achieving higher levels of physical activity (OR=1.27 [1.08, 1.49]), and those living in areas with higher objectively-measured crime had a 28% reduced odds of achieving higher levels of physical activity (OR=0.72 [0.61, 0.83]). Effects of perceived safety were highly heterogeneous (I 2 =94.09%), but explored moderators were not statistically significant, likely because of the small sample size. Despite the limited number of effects suitable for aggregation, the mean association between perceived safety and PA was significant. As it seems likely that perceived lack of safety from crime constrains PA behaviors, future research exploring moderators of this association may help guide public health recommendations and interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Traffic safety facts 1999 : state alcohol estimates

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

The data in this traffic safety fact sheet provide estimates of alcohol involvement in fatal crashes for the United States and individually for the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico (not included in the national totals). These esti...

A-posteriori error estimation for second order mechanical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiner, Thomas; Fehr, Jörg; Haasdonk, Bernard; Eberhard, Peter

2012-06-01

One important issue for the simulation of flexible multibody systems is the reduction of the flexible bodies degrees of freedom. As far as safety questions are concerned knowledge about the error introduced by the reduction of the flexible degrees of freedom is helpful and very important. In this work, an a-posteriori error estimator for linear first order systems is extended for error estimation of mechanical second order systems. Due to the special second order structure of mechanical systems, an improvement of the a-posteriori error estimator is achieved. A major advantage of the a-posteriori error estimator is that the estimator is independent of the used reduction technique. Therefore, it can be used for moment-matching based, Gramian matrices based or modal based model reduction techniques. The capability of the proposed technique is demonstrated by the a-posteriori error estimation of a mechanical system, and a sensitivity analysis of the parameters involved in the error estimation process is conducted.

Using supercomputers for the time history analysis of old gravity dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouve, G.; Peters, A.

Some of the old masonry dams that were built in Germany at the beginning of this century are a matter of concern today. In the course of time certain deterioration caused or amplified by aging has appeared and raised questions about the safety of these old dams. The Finite Element Method, which in the past two decades has found a widespread application, offers a suitable tool to re-evaluate the safety of these old gravity dams. The reliability of the results, however, strongly depends on the knowledge of the material parameters. Using historical records and observations a numerical back-analysis models has been developed to simulate the behaviour of these old masonry structures and to estimate their material properties by calibration. Only an implementation on a fourth generation vector computer made the application of this large model possible in practice.

[Objectives and limits of test standards].

PubMed

Kaddick, C; Blömer, W

2014-06-01

Test standards are developed worldwide by extremely committed expert groups working mostly in an honorary capacity and have substantially contributed to the currently achieved safety standards in reconstructive orthopedics. Independent of the distribution and quality of a test specification, the specialist knowledge of the user cannot replace a well founded risk analysis and if used unthinkingly can lead to a false estimation of safety. The limits of standardization are reached where new indications or highly innovative products are concerned. In this case the manufacturer must undertake the time and cost-intensive route of a self-developed testing procedure which in the ideal case leads to a further testing standard. Test standards make a substantial contribution to implant safety but cannot replace the expert knowledge of the user. Tests as an end to themselves take the actual objectives of standardization to absurdity.

Patient safety culture in Norwegian nursing homes.

PubMed

Bondevik, Gunnar Tschudi; Hofoss, Dag; Husebø, Bettina Sandgathe; Deilkås, Ellen Catharina Tveter

2017-06-20

Patient safety culture concerns leader and staff interaction, attitudes, routines, awareness and practices that impinge on the risk of patient-adverse events. Due to their complex multiple diseases, nursing home patients are at particularly high risk of adverse events. Studies have found an association between patient safety culture and the risk of adverse events. This study aimed to investigate safety attitudes among healthcare providers in Norwegian nursing homes, using the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire - Ambulatory Version (SAQ-AV). We studied whether variations in safety attitudes were related to professional background, age, work experience and mother tongue. In February 2016, 463 healthcare providers working in five nursing homes in Tønsberg, Norway, were invited to answer the SAQ-AV, translated and adapted to the Norwegian nursing home setting. Previous validation of the Norwegian SAQ-AV for nursing homes identified five patient safety factors: teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction, working conditions and stress recognition. SPSS v.22 was used for statistical analysis, which included estimations of mean values, standard deviations and multiple linear regressions. P-values <0.05 were considered to be significant. Out of the 463 employees invited, 288 (62.2%) answered the questionnaire. Response rates varied between 56.9% and 72.2% across the five nursing homes. In multiple linear regression analysis, we found that increasing age and job position among the healthcare providers were associated with significantly increased mean scores for the patient safety factors teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction and working conditions. Not being a Norwegian native speaker was associated with a significantly higher mean score for job satisfaction and a significantly lower mean score for stress recognition. Neither professional background nor work experience were significantly associated with mean scores for any patient safety factor. Patient safety factor scores in nursing homes were poorer than previously found in Norwegian general practices, but similar to findings in out-of-hours primary care clinics. Patient safety culture assessment may help nursing home leaders to initiate targeted quality improvement interventions. Further research should investigate associations between patient safety culture and the occurrence of adverse events in nursing homes.

Global access to safe water: accounting for water quality and the resulting impact on MDG progress.

PubMed

Onda, Kyle; LoBuglio, Joe; Bartram, Jamie

2012-03-01

Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as "improved" or "unimproved" as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF "Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality". A principal components analysis (PCA) of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population) used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11%) use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator "use of an improved source" suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18%) use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety.

Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

PubMed Central

Onda, Kyle; LoBuglio, Joe; Bartram, Jamie

2012-01-01

Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA) of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population) used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11%) use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18%) use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety. PMID:22690170

Quantifying the impact of adaptive traffic control systems on crash frequency and severity: Evidence from Oakland County, Michigan.

PubMed

Fink, Joshua; Kwigizile, Valerian; Oh, Jun-Seok

2016-06-01

Despite seeing widespread usage worldwide, adaptive traffic control systems have experienced relatively little use in the United States. Of the systems used, the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) is the most popular in America. Safety benefits of these systems are not as well understood nor as commonly documented. This study investigates the safety benefits of adaptive traffic control systems by using the large SCATS-based system in Oakland County, MI known as FAST-TRAC. This study uses data from FAST-TRAC-controlled intersections in Oakland County and compares a wide variety of geometric, traffic, and crash characteristics to similar intersections in metropolitan areas elsewhere in Michigan. Data from 498 signalized intersections are used to conduct a cross-sectional analysis. Negative binomial models are used to estimate models for three dependent crash variables. Multinomial logit models are used to estimate an injury severity model. A variable tracking the presence of FAST-TRAC controllers at intersections is used in all models to determine if a SCATS-based system has an impact on crash occurrences or crash severity. Estimates show that the presence of SCATS-based controllers at intersections is likely to reduce angle crashes by up to 19.3%. Severity results show a statistically significant increase in non-serious injuries, but not a significant reduction in incapacitating injuries or fatal accidents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

A collaborative approach to investigating the risk of thrombocytopenic purpura after measles-mumps-rubella vaccination in England and Denmark.

PubMed

Andrews, Nick; Stowe, Julia; Miller, Elizabeth; Svanström, Henrik; Johansen, Kari; Bonhoeffer, Jan; Hviid, Anders

2012-04-19

The assessment of rare adverse events following vaccination may not be possible within a single country due to an insufficiently large denominator population. In 2008 a European consortium (VAESCO) was funded to perform collaborative vaccine safety studies. To help assess the feasibility of multi-country collaboration England and Denmark, who have established vaccine safety research infrastructures, undertook to work to a common protocol and share results and data to estimate the risk of a known true adverse event, thrombocytopenic purpura (TP) following measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination. TP is a known rare reaction to MMR and therefore provided an opportunity to assess whether two countries would produce similar results when working collaboratively. Despite some initial problems with ensuring data were comparable, the two countries gave very similar estimates of the relative incidence in the 6 weeks after vaccination and a pooled relative incidence estimate of 2.13 (95% confidence interval 1.55-2.94) and attributable risk of 1 in 50,000 doses. Both countries used hospital admissions for TP and the analysis was performed using the self controlled case series method which is particularly suited to collaborative studies because of its implicit control for individual level confounding. The study therefore shows the potential for vaccine safety collaborations across Europe to detect true associations through use of common protocols and sharing of results or data. Copyright © 2011 Brighton Collaboration. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Financial Effect of Value-Based Purchasing and the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program on Safety-Net Hospitals in 2014: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Gilman, Matlin; Hockenberry, Jason M; Adams, E Kathleen; Milstein, Arnold S; Wilson, Ira B; Becker, Edmund R

2015-09-15

Medicare's value-based purchasing (VBP) and the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) could disproportionately affect safety-net hospitals. To determine whether safety-net hospitals incur larger financial penalties than other hospitals under VBP and HRRP. Cross-sectional analysis. United States in 2014. 3022 acute care hospitals participating in VBP and the HRRP. Safety-net hospitals were defined as being in the top quartile of the Medicare disproportionate share hospital (DSH) patient percentage and Medicare uncompensated care (UCC) payments per bed. The differences in penalties in both total dollars and dollars per bed between safety-net hospitals and other hospitals were estimated with the use of bivariate and graphical regression methods. Safety-net hospitals in the top quartile of each measure were more likely to be penalized under VBP than other hospitals (62.9% vs. 51.0% under the DSH definition and 60.3% vs. 51.5% under the UCC per-bed definition). This was also the case under the HRRP (80.8% vs. 69.0% and 81.9% vs. 68.7%, respectively). Safety-net hospitals also had larger payment penalties ($115 900 vs. $66 600 and $150 100 vs. $54 900, respectively). On a per-bed basis, this translated to $436 versus $332 and $491 versus $314, respectively. Sensitivity analysis setting the cutoff at the top decile rather than the top quartile decile led to similar conclusions with somewhat larger differences between safety-net and other hospitals. The quadratic fit of the data indicated that the larger effect of these penalties is in the middle of the distribution of the DSH and UCC measures. Only 2 measures of safety-net status were included in the analyses. Safety-net hospitals were disproportionately likely to be affected under VBP and the HRRP, but most incurred relatively small payment penalties in 2014. Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute.

EMS providers' perceptions of safety climate and adherence to safe work practices.

PubMed

Eliseo, Laura J; Murray, Kate A; White, Laura F; Dyer, Sophia; Mitchell, Patricia A; Fernandez, William G

2012-01-01

Occupational injuries are an important source of morbidity for emergency medical services (EMS) providers. Previous work has shown that employee perceptions of an organization's commitment to safety (i.e., safety climate) correlate with adherence to safe practices. To assess the association between perceived safety climate and compliance with safety procedures in an urban EMS system with >100,000 calls/year. EMS providers were issued a self-administered survey that included questions on demographics, years of experience, perceived safety climate, and adherence to safety procedures. Safety climate was assessed with a 20-item validated instrument. Adherence to safety procedures was assessed with a nine-item list of safety behaviors. Strict adherence to safety procedures was defined as endorsing "agree" or "strongly agree" on 80% of items. The effect of safety climate on compliance with safe practices was estimated using multiple logistic regression. One hundred ninety-six of 221 providers (89%) completed surveys; 74% were male; the median age was 36-40 years; and the median amount of experience was 8 years. One hundred twenty-seven of 196 respondents (65%) reported strict adherence to safe work practice. Factor analysis confirmed the original six-factor grouping of questions; frequent safety-related feedback/training was significantly associated with safe practices (odds ratio [OR] = 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-4.51). EMS workers perceiving a high degree of perceived safety climate was associated with twofold greater odds of self-reported level of strict adherence to safe work practices. Frequent safety-related feedback/training was the one dimension of safety climate that had the strongest association with adherence to safe workplace behaviors.

Safety belt use estimate for Native American tribal reservations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-10-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Indian Highway Safety Program, sponsored a project to (a) establish the first baseline tribal reservation safety belt use rate, and (b) develop a metho...

Safety evaluation of advance street name signs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) organized a pooled fund study of 26 States to evaluate low-cost safety strategies as part of its strategic highway safety effort. The objective of the pooled fund study was to estimate the safety effectivenes...

Sequential Analysis: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-11

it is necessary to estimate in situ the geographical coordinates and other parameters of earthquakes . The standard sensor equipment of a three...components. When an earthquake arises, the sensors begin to record several types of seismic waves (body and surface waves), among which the more important...machines and to increased safety norms. Many structures to be monitored, e.g., civil engineering structures subject to wind and earthquakes , aircraft

The Association of Gasoline Prices With Hospital Utilization and Costs for Motorcycle and Nonmotorcycle Motor Vehicle Injuries in the United States.

PubMed

Zhu, He; Wilson, Fernando A; Stimpson, Jim P; Araz, Ozgur M; Kim, Jungyoon; Chen, Baojiang; Wu, Li-Tzy

2016-09-01

This study examined the association between gasoline prices and hospitalizations for motorcycle and nonmotorcycle motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries. Data on inpatient hospitalizations were obtained from the 2001 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Panel feasible generalized least squares models were used to estimate the effects of monthly inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on hospitalization rates for MVC injuries and to predict the impact of increasing gasoline taxes. On the basis of the available data, a $1.00 increase in the gasoline tax was associated with an estimated 8348 fewer annual hospitalizations for nonmotorcycle MVC injuries, and reduced hospital costs by $143 million. However, the increase in the gasoline tax was also associated with an estimated 3574 more annual hospitalizations for motorcycle crash injuries, and extended hospital costs by $73 million. This analysis of some existing data suggest that the increased utilization and costs of hospitalization from motorcycle crash injuries associated with an increase in the price of gasoline are likely to substantially offset reductions in nonmotorcycle MVC injuries. A policy decision to increase the gasoline tax could improve traffic safety if the increased tax is paired with public health interventions to improve motorcycle safety.

Practical state of health estimation of power batteries based on Delphi method and grey relational grade analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bingxiang; Jiang, Jiuchun; Zheng, Fangdan; Zhao, Wei; Liaw, Bor Yann; Ruan, Haijun; Han, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Weige

2015-05-01

The state of health (SOH) estimation is very critical to battery management system to ensure the safety and reliability of EV battery operation. Here, we used a unique hybrid approach to enable complex SOH estimations. The approach hybridizes the Delphi method known for its simplicity and effectiveness in applying weighting factors for complicated decision-making and the grey relational grade analysis (GRGA) for multi-factor optimization. Six critical factors were used in the consideration for SOH estimation: peak power at 30% state-of-charge (SOC), capacity, the voltage drop at 30% SOC with a C/3 pulse, the temperature rises at the end of discharge and charge at 1C; respectively, and the open circuit voltage at the end of charge after 1-h rest. The weighting of these factors for SOH estimation was scored by the 'experts' in the Delphi method, indicating the influencing power of each factor on SOH. The parameters for these factors expressing the battery state variations are optimized by GRGA. Eight battery cells were used to illustrate the principle and methodology to estimate the SOH by this hybrid approach, and the results were compared with those based on capacity and power capability. The contrast among different SOH estimations is discussed.

An evaluation of costs and benefits of a vehicle periodic inspection scheme with six-monthly inspections compared to annual inspections.

PubMed

Keall, Michael D; Newstead, Stuart

2013-09-01

Although previous research suggests that safety benefits accrue from periodic vehicle inspection programmes, little consideration has been given to whether the benefits are sufficient to justify the often considerable costs of such schemes. Methodological barriers impede many attempts to evaluate the overall safety benefits of periodic vehicle inspection schemes, including this study, which did not attempt to evaluate the New Zealand warrant of fitness scheme as a whole. Instead, this study evaluated one aspect of the scheme: the effects of doubling the inspection frequency, from annual to biannual, when the vehicle reaches six years of age. In particular, reductions in safety-related vehicle faults were estimated together with the value of the safety benefits compared to the costs. When merged crash data, licensing data and roadworthiness inspection data were analysed, there were estimated to be improvements in injury crash involvement rates and prevalence of safety-related faults of respectively 8% (95% CI 0.4-15%) and 13.5% (95% CI 12.8-14.2%) associated with the increase from annual to 6-monthly inspections. The wide confidence interval for the drop in crash rate shows considerably statistical uncertainty about the precise size of the drop. Even assuming that this proportion of vehicle faults prevented by doubling the inspection frequency could be maintained over the vehicle age range 7-20 years, the safety benefits are very unlikely to exceed the additional costs of the 6-monthly inspections to the motorists, valued at $NZ 500 million annually excluding the overall costs of administering the scheme. The New Zealand warrant of fitness scheme as a whole cannot be robustly evaluated using the analysis approach used here, but the safety benefits would need to be substantial--yielding an unlikely 12% reduction in injury crashes--for benefits to equal costs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

Criteria for the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) safety evaluation process for fragrance ingredients.

PubMed

Api, A M; Belsito, D; Bruze, M; Cadby, P; Calow, P; Dagli, M L; Dekant, W; Ellis, G; Fryer, A D; Fukayama, M; Griem, P; Hickey, C; Kromidas, L; Lalko, J F; Liebler, D C; Miyachi, Y; Politano, V T; Renskers, K; Ritacco, G; Salvito, D; Schultz, T W; Sipes, I G; Smith, B; Vitale, D; Wilcox, D K

2015-08-01

The Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) has been engaged in the generation and evaluation of safety data for fragrance materials since its inception over 45 years ago. Over time, RIFM's approach to gathering data, estimating exposure and assessing safety has evolved as the tools for risk assessment evolved. This publication is designed to update the RIFM safety assessment process, which follows a series of decision trees, reflecting advances in approaches in risk assessment and new and classical toxicological methodologies employed by RIFM over the past ten years. These changes include incorporating 1) new scientific information including a framework for choosing structural analogs, 2) consideration of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), 3) the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for dermal sensitization, 4) the respiratory route of exposure, 5) aggregate exposure assessment methodology, 6) the latest methodology and approaches to risk assessments, 7) the latest alternatives to animal testing methodology and 8) environmental risk assessment. The assessment begins with a thorough analysis of existing data followed by in silico analysis, identification of 'read across' analogs, generation of additional data through in vitro testing as well as consideration of the TTC approach. If necessary, risk management may be considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The efficacy and safety of medical leech therapy for osteoarthritis of the knee: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wang, Haixia; Zhang, Jing; Chen, Liyan

2018-06-01

It is controversial on whether medical leech therapy is effective in improving pain and functional outcome in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). Therefore, we perform a meta-analysis from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the efficacy and safety of medical leech therapy in patients with knee OA. The PubMed, EMBASE, ScienceDirect, and Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched for literature up to January 2018. RCTs involving medical leech therapy in patients with knee OA were included. Two independent reviewers performed independent data abstraction. The I 2 statistic was used to assess heterogeneity. A fixed or random effects model was adopted for meta-analysis. All meta-analyses were performed by using STATA 12.0. Four RCTs with 264 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The current meta-analysis showed that there were significant differences in terms of visual analogue scale (VAS) scores and WOMAC scores at 1 week, 4weeks and 7 weeks compared with control groups. However, leech therapy was associated with a significantly higher incidence of adverse events. The overall evidence quality is moderate, which means that further research is likely to significantly change confidence in the effect estimate but may change the estimate. Medical leech therapy was associated with a significantly improved outcome in pain relief and functional recovery in patients with symptomatic knee OA. However, given the inherent limitations in the included studies, this conclusion should be interpreted cautiously. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimated safety belt use rates under primary and secondary enforcement statutes : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-01-01

The Virginia Transportation Research Council was requested by the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles to estimate the changes in statewide safety belt use that would occur if the state were to modify its current mandatory use law (HUL) to permit pr...

Network meta-analysis of multiple outcome measures accounting for borrowing of information across outcomes.

PubMed

Achana, Felix A; Cooper, Nicola J; Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Hubbard, Stephanie J; Kendrick, Denise; Jones, David R; Sutton, Alex J

2014-07-21

Network meta-analysis (NMA) enables simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments while preserving randomisation. When summarising evidence to inform an economic evaluation, it is important that the analysis accurately reflects the dependency structure within the data, as correlations between outcomes may have implication for estimating the net benefit associated with treatment. A multivariate NMA offers a framework for evaluating multiple treatments across multiple outcome measures while accounting for the correlation structure between outcomes. The standard NMA model is extended to multiple outcome settings in two stages. In the first stage, information is borrowed across outcomes as well across studies through modelling the within-study and between-study correlation structure. In the second stage, we make use of the additional assumption that intervention effects are exchangeable between outcomes to predict effect estimates for all outcomes, including effect estimates on outcomes where evidence is either sparse or the treatment had not been considered by any one of the studies included in the analysis. We apply the methods to binary outcome data from a systematic review evaluating the effectiveness of nine home safety interventions on uptake of three poisoning prevention practices (safe storage of medicines, safe storage of other household products, and possession of poison centre control telephone number) in households with children. Analyses are conducted in WinBUGS using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Univariate and the first stage multivariate models produced broadly similar point estimates of intervention effects but the uncertainty around the multivariate estimates varied depending on the prior distribution specified for the between-study covariance structure. The second stage multivariate analyses produced more precise effect estimates while enabling intervention effects to be predicted for all outcomes, including intervention effects on outcomes not directly considered by the studies included in the analysis. Accounting for the dependency between outcomes in a multivariate meta-analysis may or may not improve the precision of effect estimates from a network meta-analysis compared to analysing each outcome separately.

RELEASE OF DRIED RADIOACTIVE WASTE MATERIALS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KOZLOWSKI, S.D.

2007-05-30

This technical basis document was developed to support RPP-23429, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (PDSA) and RPP-23479, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Facility. The main document describes the risk binning process and the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative accidents involving the release of dried radioactive waste materials from the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (DBVS) and to the associated represented hazardous conditions. Appendices D through F provide the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative dried waste release accident and associated represented hazardous conditionsmore » for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Packaging Unit (WPU). The risk binning process uses an evaluation of the frequency and consequence of a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition to determine the need for safety structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls. A representative accident or a represented hazardous condition is assigned to a risk bin based on the potential radiological and toxicological consequences to the public and the collocated worker. Note that the risk binning process is not applied to facility workers because credible hazardous conditions with the potential for significant facility worker consequences are considered for safety-significant SSCs and/or TSR-level controls regardless of their estimated frequency. The controls for protection of the facility workers are described in RPP-23429 and RPP-23479. Determination of the need for safety-class SSCs was performed in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses, as described below.« less

The Safety and Efficacy of Approaches to Liver Resection: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Hauch, Adam; Hu, Tian; Buell, Joseph F.; Slakey, Douglas P.; Kandil, Emad

2015-01-01

Background: The aim of this study is to compare the safety and efficacy of conventional laparotomy with those of robotic and laparoscopic approaches to hepatectomy. Database: Independent reviewers conducted a systematic review of publications in PubMed and Embase, with searches limited to comparative articles of laparoscopic hepatectomy with either conventional or robotic liver approaches. Outcomes included total operative time, estimated blood loss, length of hospitalization, resection margins, postoperative complications, perioperative mortality rates, and cost measures. Outcome comparisons were calculated using random-effects models to pool estimates of mean net differences or of the relative risk between group outcomes. Forty-nine articles, representing 3702 patients, comprise this analysis: 1901 (51.35%) underwent a laparoscopic approach, 1741 (47.03%) underwent an open approach, and 60 (1.62%) underwent a robotic approach. There was no difference in total operative times, surgical margins, or perioperative mortality rates among groups. Across all outcome measures, laparoscopic and robotic approaches showed no difference. As compared with the minimally invasive groups, patients undergoing laparotomy had a greater estimated blood loss (pooled mean net change, 152.0 mL; 95% confidence interval, 103.3–200.8 mL), a longer length of hospital stay (pooled mean difference, 2.22 days; 95% confidence interval, 1.78–2.66 days), and a higher total complication rate (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% confidence interval, 0.42–0.57). Conclusion: Minimally invasive approaches to liver resection are as safe as conventional laparotomy, affording less estimated blood loss, shorter lengths of hospitalization, lower perioperative complication rates, and equitable oncologic integrity and postoperative mortality rates. There was no proven advantage of robotic approaches compared with laparoscopic approaches. PMID:25848191

Improved guidelines for estimating the Highway safety manual calibration factors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

Crash prediction models can be used to predict the number of crashes and evaluate roadway safety. Part C of the first edition of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides safety performance functions (SPFs). The HSM addendum that includes freeway and ...

Comparison of safety effect estimates obtained from empirical Bayes before-after study, propensity scores-potential outcomes framework, and regression model with cross-sectional data.

PubMed

Wood, Jonathan S; Donnell, Eric T; Porter, Richard J

2015-02-01

A variety of different study designs and analysis methods have been used to evaluate the performance of traffic safety countermeasures. The most common study designs and methods include observational before-after studies using the empirical Bayes method and cross-sectional studies using regression models. The propensity scores-potential outcomes framework has recently been proposed as an alternative traffic safety countermeasure evaluation method to address the challenges associated with selection biases that can be part of cross-sectional studies. Crash modification factors derived from the application of all three methods have not yet been compared. This paper compares the results of retrospective, observational evaluations of a traffic safety countermeasure using both before-after and cross-sectional study designs. The paper describes the strengths and limitations of each method, focusing primarily on how each addresses site selection bias, which is a common issue in observational safety studies. The Safety Edge paving technique, which seeks to mitigate crashes related to roadway departure events, is the countermeasure used in the present study to compare the alternative evaluation methods. The results indicated that all three methods yielded results that were consistent with each other and with previous research. The empirical Bayes results had the smallest standard errors. It is concluded that the propensity scores with potential outcomes framework is a viable alternative analysis method to the empirical Bayes before-after study. It should be considered whenever a before-after study is not possible or practical. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploration of Heterogeneity in Distributed Research Network Drug Safety Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Richard A.; Zeng, Peng; Ryan, Patrick; Gao, Juan; Sonawane, Kalyani; Teeter, Benjamin; Westrich, Kimberly; Dubois, Robert W.

2014-01-01

Distributed data networks representing large diverse populations are an expanding focus of drug safety research. However, interpreting results is difficult when treatment effect estimates vary across datasets (i.e., heterogeneity). In a previous study, risk estimates were generated for selected drugs and potential adverse outcomes. Analyses were…

Structural Analysis of Kufasat Using Ansys Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Maliky, Firas T.; AlBermani, Mohamed J.

2018-03-01

The current work focuses on vibration and modal analysis of KufaSat structure using ANSYS 16 program. Three types of Aluminum alloys (5052-H32, 6061-T6 and 7075-T6) were selected for investigation of the structure under design loads. Finite element analysis (FEA) in design static load of 51 g was performed. The natural frequencies for five modes were estimated using modal analysis. In order to ensure that KufaSat could withstand with various conditions during launch, the Margin of safety was calculated. The results of deformation and Von Mises stress for linear buckling analysis were also performed. The comparison of data was done to select the optimum material for KufaSat structures.

Interface design of VSOP'94 computer code for safety analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natsir, Khairina; Yazid, Putranto Ilham; Andiwijayakusuma, D.; Wahanani, Nursinta Adi

2014-09-01

Today, most software applications, also in the nuclear field, come with a graphical user interface. VSOP'94 (Very Superior Old Program), was designed to simplify the process of performing reactor simulation. VSOP is a integrated code system to simulate the life history of a nuclear reactor that is devoted in education and research. One advantage of VSOP program is its ability to calculate the neutron spectrum estimation, fuel cycle, 2-D diffusion, resonance integral, estimation of reactors fuel costs, and integrated thermal hydraulics. VSOP also can be used to comparative studies and simulation of reactor safety. However, existing VSOP is a conventional program, which was developed using Fortran 65 and have several problems in using it, for example, it is only operated on Dec Alpha mainframe platforms and provide text-based output, difficult to use, especially in data preparation and interpretation of results. We develop a GUI-VSOP, which is an interface program to facilitate the preparation of data, run the VSOP code and read the results in a more user friendly way and useable on the Personal 'Computer (PC). Modifications include the development of interfaces on preprocessing, processing and postprocessing. GUI-based interface for preprocessing aims to provide a convenience way in preparing data. Processing interface is intended to provide convenience in configuring input files and libraries and do compiling VSOP code. Postprocessing interface designed to visualized the VSOP output in table and graphic forms. GUI-VSOP expected to be useful to simplify and speed up the process and analysis of safety aspects.

The use of meta-analysis or research synthesis to combine driving simulation or naturalistic study results on driver distraction.

PubMed

Caird, Jeff K; Johnston, Katherine A; Willness, Chelsea R; Asbridge, Mark

2014-06-01

Three important and inter-related topics are addressed in this paper. First, the importance of meta-analysis and research synthesis methods to combine studies on traffic safety, in general, and on driver distraction, in particular, is briefly reviewed. Second, naturalistic, epidemiologic, and driving simulation studies on driver distraction are used to illustrate convergent and divergent results that have accumulated thus far in this domain of research. In particular, mobile phone conversation, passenger presence, and text messaging naturalistic studies use meta-analyses and research syntheses to illustrate important patterns of results that are in need of more in-depth study. Third, a number of driver distraction study limitations such as poorly defined dependent variables, lack of methodological detail, and omission of statistical information prevent the integration of many studies into meta-analyses. In addition, the overall quality of road safety studies suffers from these same limitations and suggestions for improvement are made to guide researchers and reviewers. Practical Applications. The use of research synthesis and meta-analysis provide comprehensive estimates of the impact of distractions on driving performance, which can be used to guide public policy and future research. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis E vaccination among pregnant women in epidemic regions.

PubMed

Zhao, Yueyuan; Zhang, Xuefeng; Zhu, Fengcai; Jin, Hui; Wang, Bei

2016-08-02

Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis E vaccination among pregnant women in epidemic regions. Methods A decision tree model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 3 hepatitis E virus vaccination strategies from societal perspectives. The model parameters were estimated on the basis of published studies and experts' experience. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the uncertainties of the model. Results Vaccination was more economically effective on the basis of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER< 3 times China's per capital gross domestic product/quality-adjusted life years); moreover, screening and vaccination had higher QALYs and lower costs compared with universal vaccination. No parameters significantly impacted ICER in one-way sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis also showed screening and vaccination to be the dominant strategy. Conclusion Screening and vaccination is the most economical strategy for pregnant women in epidemic regions; however, further studies are necessary to confirm the efficacy and safety of the hepatitis E vaccines.

Modeling the impact of spatial relationships on horizontal curve safety.

PubMed

Findley, Daniel J; Hummer, Joseph E; Rasdorf, William; Zegeer, Charles V; Fowler, Tyler J

2012-03-01

The curved segments of roadways are more hazardous because of the additional centripetalforces exerted on a vehicle, driver expectations, and other factors. The safety of a curve is dependent on various factors, most notably by geometric factors, but the location of a curve in relation to other curves is also thought to influence the safety of those curves because of a driver's expectation to encounter additional curves. The link between an individual curve's geometric characteristics and its safety performance has been established, but spatial considerations are typically not included in a safety analysis. The spatial considerations included in this research consisted of four components: distance to adjacent curves, direction of turn of the adjacent curves, and radius and length of the adjacent curves. The primary objective of this paper is to quantify the spatial relationship between adjacent horizontal curves and horizontal curve safety using a crash modification factor. Doing so enables a safety professional to more accurately estimate safety to allocate funding to reduce or prevent future collisions and more efficiently design new roadway sections to minimize crash risk where there will be a series of curves along a route. The most important finding from this research is the statistical significance of spatial considerations for the prediction of horizontal curve safety. The distances to adjacent curves were found to be a reliable predictor of observed collisions. This research recommends a model which utilizes spatial considerations for horizontal curve safety prediction in addition to current Highway Safety Manual prediction capabilities using individual curve geometric features. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stamatelatos,Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Apostolakis, George; Everline, Chester; Guarro, Sergio; Mathias, Donovan; Mosleh, Ali; Paulos, Todd; Riha, David; Smith, Curtis;

Estimation of adhesive bond strength in laminated safety glass using guided mechanical waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Shihong

Laminated safety glass is used in the automobile industry and in architectural applications. Laminated safety glass consists of a plastic interlayer, such as a layer of poly vinyl butyral (PVB) or Butacite, surrounded by two adjacent glass plates. The glass can be float glass, plate glass, tempered glass, or sheet glass, and the plastic interlayer is made of a viscoelastic material with relatively high damping. The level of adhesive bond strength between the plastic interlayer and the two adjacent glass plates has a significant role in the penetration resistance against flying objects and is a critical parameter towards ensuring the proper performance of safety glass. Therefore, estimation and control of adhesive bond levels in laminated safety glass is a critical issue. There are several destructive testing procedures used to quantify the adhesion level in laminated safety glass. These tests include the tension test, the peel test, the impact test, and the pummel test. All these tests have drawbacks including the pummel test method, which has been the most widely used in industry for over 80 years. The primary drawbacks of the pummel test method are that it is destructive and subjective (i.e., involves individual human judgment), which precludes this method for use as an on-line test method for quality control. Consequently, a quantitative nondestructive testing method to evaluate adhesion levels would be an asset to the laminated safety glass industry. In this study, adhesion levels in laminated safety glass samples, i.e., windshields, have been assessed using the guided mechanical wave method. To study the adhesive bond strength analytically, the imperfect interfaces between the plastic interlayer and the two adjacent glass plates in laminated safety glass are modeled using a bed of longitudinal and shear springs, and their stiffness characteristics are estimated using fracture mechanics and atomic force microscopy (AFM) surface measurements. The atomic force microscopy measurements are used to estimate the contact area at the imperfect interfaces between the plastic interlayer and the two adjacent glass plates for each of the laminates. The spring layers are then embedded in the global matrix method, which is used to predict the guided wave dispersion behavior of the laminated system. Based upon the guided wave energy velocity predictions for each of the laminates with different levels of adhesion, the S0 mode was selected as the most promising for use in nondestructively estimating adhesion levels in laminated safety glass. The predicted energy velocities (obtained using this multilayered model) were validated using guided wave energy velocity experimental measurements. The experimentally obtained velocity measurements are in good agreement with the predicted values. Guided wave attenuation in laminated safety glass is primarily due to the viscoelastic material properties of the PVB plastic interlayer. The attenuation properties of S1 mode were also explored to estimate the adhesive bond strength between the plastic interlayer and the two adjacent glass plates. Results show that the combination of both the energy velocity and attenuation methods has promise towards replacing the pummel test method to estimate the adhesion level in laminated safety glass.

Corruption, inequality and population perception of healthcare quality in Europe

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Evaluating the quality of healthcare and patient safety using general population questionnaires is important from research and policy perspective. Using a special wave of the Eurobarometer survey, we analysed the general population’s perception of health care quality and patient safety in a cross-country setting. Methods We used ordered probit, ordinary least squares and probit analysis to estimate the determinants of health care quality, and ordered logit analysis to analyse the likelihood of being harmed by a specific medical procedure. The models used population weights as well as country-clustered standard errors. Results We found robust evidence for the impact of socio-demographic variables on the perception of quality of health care. More specifically, we found a non-linear impact of age on the perception of quality of health care and patient safety, as well as a negative impact of poverty on both perception of quality and patient safety. We also found robust evidence that countries with higher corruption levels were associated with worse perceptions of quality of health care. Finally, we found evidence that income inequality affects patients’ perception vis-à-vis safety, thus feeding into the poverty/health care quality nexus. Conclusions Socio-demographic factors and two macro variables (corruption and income inequality) explain the perception of quality of health care and likelihood of being harmed by adverse events. The results carry significant policy weight and could explain why targeting only the health care sector (without an overall reform of the public sector) could potentially be challenging. PMID:24215401

An empirical Bayes safety evaluation of tram/streetcar signal and lane priority measures in Melbourne.

PubMed

Naznin, Farhana; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

2016-01-01

Streetcars/tram systems are growing worldwide, and many are given priority to increase speed and reliability performance in mixed traffic conditions. Research related to the road safety impact of tram priority is limited. This study explores the road safety impacts of tram priority measures including lane and intersection/signal priority measures. A before-after crash study was conducted using the empirical Bayes (EB) method to provide more accurate crash impact estimates by accounting for wider crash trends and regression to the mean effects. Before-after crash data for 29 intersections with tram signal priority and 23 arterials with tram lane priority in Melbourne, Australia, were analyzed to evaluate the road safety impact of tram priority. The EB before-after analysis results indicated a statistically significant adjusted crash reduction rate of 16.4% after implementation of tram priority measures. Signal priority measures were found to reduce crashes by 13.9% and lane priority by 19.4%. A disaggregate level simple before-after analysis indicated reductions in total and serious crashes as well as vehicle-, pedestrian-, and motorcycle-involved crashes. In addition, reductions in on-path crashes, pedestrian-involved crashes, and collisions among vehicles moving in the same and opposite directions and all other specific crash types were found after tram priority implementation. Results suggest that streetcar/tram priority measures result in safety benefits for all road users, including vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. Policy implications and areas for future research are discussed.

Corruption, inequality and population perception of healthcare quality in Europe.

PubMed

Nikoloski, Zlatko; Mossialos, Elias

2013-11-11

Evaluating the quality of healthcare and patient safety using general population questionnaires is important from research and policy perspective. Using a special wave of the Eurobarometer survey, we analysed the general population's perception of health care quality and patient safety in a cross-country setting. We used ordered probit, ordinary least squares and probit analysis to estimate the determinants of health care quality, and ordered logit analysis to analyse the likelihood of being harmed by a specific medical procedure. The models used population weights as well as country-clustered standard errors. We found robust evidence for the impact of socio-demographic variables on the perception of quality of health care. More specifically, we found a non-linear impact of age on the perception of quality of health care and patient safety, as well as a negative impact of poverty on both perception of quality and patient safety. We also found robust evidence that countries with higher corruption levels were associated with worse perceptions of quality of health care. Finally, we found evidence that income inequality affects patients' perception vis-à-vis safety, thus feeding into the poverty/health care quality nexus. Socio-demographic factors and two macro variables (corruption and income inequality) explain the perception of quality of health care and likelihood of being harmed by adverse events. The results carry significant policy weight and could explain why targeting only the health care sector (without an overall reform of the public sector) could potentially be challenging.

Seminar on Understanding Digital Control and Analysis in Vibration Test Systems, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

A number of techniques for dealing with important technical aspects of the random vibration control problem are described. These include the generation of pseudo-random and true random noise, the control spectrum estimation problem, the accuracy/speed tradeoff, and control correction strategies. System hardware, the operator-system interface, safety features, and operational capabilities of sophisticated digital random vibration control systems are also discussed.

Nonfatal All-Terrain Vehicle-Related Injuries to Youths Living on Farms in the United States, 2001

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldcamp, E. Michael; Myers, John; Hendricks, Kitty; Layne, Larry; Helmkamp, Jim

2006-01-01

Use of all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) in agriculture appears to be growing. Purpose: To provide estimates of ATV ownership and exposure on US farms and an overview of injuries to youths as a result of ATV use on the farm in 2001. Methods: Analysis of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health and US Department of Agriculture 2001…

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Residue analysis of fipronil and difenoconazole in okra by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and their food safety evaluation.

PubMed

Hingmire, Sandip; Oulkar, Dasharath P; Utture, Sagar C; Ahammed Shabeer, T P; Banerjee, Kaushik

2015-06-01

A liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) based method is reported for simultaneous analysis of fipronil (plus its metabolites) and difenoconazole residues in okra. The sample preparation method involving extraction with ethyl acetate provided 80-107% recoveries for both the pesticides with precision RSD within 4-17% estimated at the limits of quantification (LOQ, fipronil=1ngg(-1), difenoconazole=5ngg(-1)) and higher fortification levels. In field, both the pesticides dissipated with half-life of 2.5days. The estimated pre-harvest intervals (PHI) for fipronil and difenoconazole were 15 and 19.5days, and 4 and 6.5days at single and double dose of field applications, respectively. Decontamination of incurred residues by washing and different cooking treatments was quite efficient in minimizing the residue load of both the chemicals. Okra samples harvested after the estimated PHIs were found safe for human consumption. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-Based Sampling: I Don't Want to Weight in Vain.

PubMed

Powell, Mark R

2015-12-01

Recently, there has been considerable interest in developing risk-based sampling for food safety and animal and plant health for efficient allocation of inspection and surveillance resources. The problem of risk-based sampling allocation presents a challenge similar to financial portfolio analysis. Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory based on mean-variance optimization. However, a persistent challenge in implementing portfolio optimization is the problem of estimation error, leading to false "optimal" portfolios and unstable asset weights. In some cases, portfolio diversification based on simple heuristics (e.g., equal allocation) has better out-of-sample performance than complex portfolio optimization methods due to estimation uncertainty. Even for portfolios with a modest number of assets, the estimation window required for true optimization may imply an implausibly long stationary period. The implications for risk-based sampling are illustrated by a simple simulation model of lot inspection for a small, heterogeneous group of producers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roychoudhury, Indranil

2016-01-01

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

Traffic Safety Facts, 2001: Occupant Protection.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

This document provides statistical information on the benefits of occupant restraint systems in U.S. motor vehicle accidents. Data tables include: (1) estimated number of lives saved by restraint systems (seat belts, air bags, child restraints), 1975-2001; (2) cumulative estimated number of lives saved by safety belt use, 1975-2001; and (3)…

Occupant Protection. Traffic Safety Facts, 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

This document provides statistical information on the benefits of occupant restraint systems in U.S. motor vehicle accidents. Data tables include: (1) estimated number of lives saved by restraint systems (seat belts, air bags, child restraints), 1975-2000; (2) cumulative estimated number of lives saved by safety belt use, 1975-2000; and (3)…

How Safe is Vehicle Safety? The Contribution of Vehicle Technologies to the Reduction in Road Casualties in France from 2000 to 2010

PubMed Central

Page, Yves; Hermitte, Thierry; Cuny, Sophie

2011-01-01

In France, over the last 10 years, road fatalities have decreased dramatically by 48%. This reduction is somewhat close to the target fixed by the European Commision in 2001 for the whole of Europe (−50 %). According to the French govnerment, 75% of this reduction was due to the implementation of automatic speed cameras on the roadsides from 2003 onwards. Yet, during this period, there was also a significantly increase in safety technology, new regulations in front and side impacts, and developments in Euro NCAP to improve passive safety in the vehicles. This paper set out to estimate the extent that vehicle safety technologies contributed to the road safety benefits over this decade. Using a combination of databases and fitment rates, the number of fatalities and hospitalized injuries saved in passenger car crashes was estimated for a number of safety technologies, individually and as a package including a 5 star EuroNCAP rating. The additional benefits from other public safety measures were also similarly estimated. The results showed that overall safety measures during this decade saved 240,676 fatalities + serious injuries, of which 173,663 were car occupants. Of these, 27,365 car occupants and 1,083 pedestrian savings could be attributed directly to vehicle safety improvements (11% overall). It was concluded that while public safety measures were responsible for the majority of the savings, enhanced vehicle safety technologies also made a significant improvement in the road toll in France during the last decade. As the take-up rate for these technologies improves, is expected to continue to provide even more benefits in the next 10-year period. PMID:22105388

Performance of a semi-automated approach for risk estimation using a common data model for longitudinal healthcare databases.

PubMed

Van Le, Hoa; Beach, Kathleen J; Powell, Gregory; Pattishall, Ed; Ryan, Patrick; Mera, Robertino M

2013-02-01

Different structures and coding schemes may limit rapid evaluation of a large pool of potential drug safety signals using multiple longitudinal healthcare databases. To overcome this restriction, a semi-automated approach utilising common data model (CDM) and robust pharmacoepidemiologic methods was developed; however, its performance needed to be evaluated. Twenty-three established drug-safety associations from publications were reproduced in a healthcare claims database and four of these were also repeated in electronic health records. Concordance and discrepancy of pairwise estimates were assessed between the results derived from the publication and results from this approach. For all 27 pairs, an observed agreement between the published results and the results from the semi-automated approach was greater than 85% and Kappa coefficient was 0.61, 95% CI: 0.19-1.00. Ln(IRR) differed by less than 50% for 13/27 pairs, and the IRR varied less than 2-fold for 19/27 pairs. Reproducibility based on the intra-class correlation coefficient was 0.54. Most covariates (>90%) in the publications were available for inclusion in the models. Once the study populations and inclusion/exclusion criteria were obtained from the literature, the analysis was able to be completed in 2-8 h. The semi-automated methodology using a CDM produced consistent risk estimates compared to the published findings for most selected drug-outcome associations, regardless of original study designs, databases, medications and outcomes. Further assessment of this approach is useful to understand its roles, strengths and limitations in rapidly evaluating safety signals.

Chemistry, manufacturing and exposure assessments to support generally recognized as safe (GRAS) determinations.

PubMed

Barraj, Leila; Murphy, Mary; Tran, Nga; Petersen, Barbara

2016-08-01

Identity, stability, purity, intended use levels in what foods and technical effects, and probable intake are among the key components in an assessment to support GRAS determinations. The specifications of identity of a food substance are an important component of the safety assessment as changes in the physical and chemical properties of a food substance can influence its technical effect in food and can influence its nutritional or toxicological properties of the food substance. Estimating exposure is a key determining step in the safety evaluation of a food substance. Intake assessment in GRAS determination is necessarily comprehensive based on cumulative exposure, i.e. proposed new uses plus background dietary exposure. Intake estimates for safety assurance in a GRAS determination also represent conservative overestimate of chronic exposure as they are based on 2-day average daily intake and the upper percentile (90th) intake among consumers. In contrast, in a nutrient assessment where realistic intake estimates are of interest, usual intake estimates are relied upon. It should also be noted that intake estimates for GRAS determinations are also more conservative than estimate of dietary exposure by EPA (FIFRA), where mean per capita are used to assess chronic exposure. Overall, for safety assurance, intake assessments in GRAS determinations are comprehensively cumulative and typically conservative overestimate of exposures. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Model-OA wind turbine generator - Failure modes and effects analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, William E.; Lali, Vincent R.

1990-01-01

The results failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) conducted for wind-turbine generators are presented. The FMEA was performed for the functional modes of each system, subsystem, or component. The single-point failures were eliminated for most of the systems. The blade system was the only exception. The qualitative probability of a blade separating was estimated at level D-remote. Many changes were made to the hardware as a result of this analysis. The most significant change was the addition of the safety system. Operational experience and need to improve machine availability have resulted in subsequent changes to the various systems, which are also reflected in this FMEA.

Fluid-structure interaction analysis and lifetime estimation of a natural gas pipeline centrifugal compressor under near-choke and near-surge conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Yaping; Liu, Hui; Yao, Ziyun; Xing, Peng; Zhang, Chuhua

2015-11-01

Up to present, there have been no studies concerning the application of fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis to the lifetime estimation of multi-stage centrifugal compressors under dangerous unsteady aerodynamic excitations. In this paper, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of a three-stage natural gas pipeline centrifugal compressor are performed under near-choke and near-surge conditions, and the unsteady aerodynamic pressure acting on impeller blades are obtained. Then computational structural dynamics (CSD) analysis is conducted through a one-way coupling FSI model to predict alternating stresses in impeller blades. Finally, the compressor lifetime is estimated using the nominal stress approach. The FSI results show that the impellers of latter stages suffer larger fluctuation stresses but smaller mean stresses than those at preceding stages under near-choke and near-surge conditions. The most dangerous position in the compressor is found to be located near the leading edge of the last-stage impeller blade. Compressor lifetime estimation shows that the investigated compressor can run up to 102.7 h under the near-choke condition and 200.2 h under the near-surge condition. This study is expected to provide a scientific guidance for the operation safety of natural gas pipeline centrifugal compressors.

Achieving a climate for patient safety by focusing on relationships.

PubMed

Manojlovich, Milisa; Kerr, Mickey; Davies, Barbara; Squires, Janet; Mallick, Ranjeeta; Rodger, Ginette L

2014-12-01

Despite many initiatives, advances in patient safety remain uneven in part because poor relationships among health professionals have not been addressed. The purpose of this study was to determine whether relationships between health professionals contributed to a patient safety climate, after implementation of an intervention to improve inter-professional collaboration. This was a secondary analysis of data collected to evaluate the Interprofessional Model of Patient Care (IPMPC) at The Ottawa Hospital in Ontario, Canada, which consists of five sites. A series of generalized estimating equation models were generated, accounting for the clustering of responses by site. Thirteen health professionals including physicians, nurses, physiotherapists and others (n = 1896) completed anonymous surveys about 1 year after the IPMPC was introduced. The IPMPC was implemented to improve interdisciplinary collaboration. Reliable instruments were used to measure collaboration, respect, inter-professional conflict and patient safety climate. Collaboration (β = 0.13; P = 0.002) and respect (β = 1.07; P = 0.03) were significant independent predictors of patient safety climate. Conflict was an independent and significant inverse predictor of patient safety climate (β = -0.29; P = 0.03), but did not moderate linkages between collaboration and patient safety climate or between respect and patient safety climate. Through the IPMPC, all health professionals learned how to collaborate and build a patient safety climate, even in the presence of inter-professional conflict. Efforts by others to foster better work relationships may yield similar improvements in patient safety climate. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Structural Configuration Analysis of Crew Exploration Vehicle Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukhopadhyay, V.

2006-01-01

Structural configuration modeling and finite element analysis of crew exploration vehicle (CEV) concepts are presented. In the structural configuration design approach, parametric solid models of the pressurized shell and tanks are developed. The CEV internal cabin pressure is same as in the International Space Station (ISS) to enable docking with the ISS without an intermediate airlock. Effects of this internal pressure load on the stress distribution, factor of safety, mass and deflections are investigated. Uniform 7 mm thick skin shell, 5 mm thick shell with ribs and frames, and isogrid skin construction options are investigated. From this limited study, the isogrid construction appears to provide most strength/mass ratio. Initial finite element analysis results on the service module tanks are also presented. These rapid finite element analyses, stress and factor of safety distribution results are presented as a part of lessons learned and to build up a structural mass estimation and sizing database for future technology support. This rapid structural analysis process may also facilitate better definition of the vehicles and components for rapid prototyping. However, these structural analysis results are highly conceptual and exploratory in nature and do not reflect current configuration designs being conducted at the program level by NASA and industry.

Dose rate prediction methodology for remote handled transuranic waste workers at the waste isolation pilot plant.

PubMed

Hayes, Robert

2002-10-01

An approach is described for estimating future dose rates to Waste Isolation Pilot Plant workers processing remote handled transuranic waste. The waste streams will come from the entire U.S. Department of Energy complex and can take on virtually any form found from the processing sequences for defense-related production, radiochemistry, activation and related work. For this reason, the average waste matrix from all generator sites is used to estimate the average radiation fields over the facility lifetime. Innovative new techniques were applied to estimate expected radiation fields. Non-linear curve fitting techniques were used to predict exposure rate profiles from cylindrical sources using closed form equations for lines and disks. This information becomes the basis for Safety Analysis Report dose rate estimates and for present and future ALARA design reviews when attempts are made to reduce worker doses.

The effects of the lower ignition propensity cigarettes standard in Estonia: time-series analysis.

PubMed

Saar, Indrek

2018-02-01

In 2011, the lower ignition propensity (LIP) standard for cigarettes was implemented in the European Union. Evidence about the impact of that safety measure is scarce. The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of the LIP standard on fire safety in Estonia. The absolute level of smoking-related fire incidents and related deaths was modelled using dynamic time-series regression analysis. The data about house fire incidents for the 2007-2013 period were obtained from the Estonian Rescue Board. Implementation of the LIP standard has reduced the monthly level of smoking-related fires by 6.2 (p<0.01, SE=1.95) incidents and by 26% (p<0.01, SE=9%) when estimated on the log scale. Slightly weaker evidence was found about the fatality reduction effects of the LIP regulation. All results were confirmed through counterfactual models for non-smoking-related fire incidents and deaths. This paper indicates that implementation of the LIP cigarettes standard has improved fire safety in Estonia. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffmann, Paul J.

1994-12-01

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kauffmann, Paul J.

1994-01-01

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Validation of a method to evaluate future impact of road safety interventions, a comparison between fatal passenger car crashes in Sweden 2000 and 2010.

PubMed

Strandroth, Johan

2015-03-01

When targeting a society free from serious and fatal road-traffic injuries, it has been a common practice in many countries and organizations to set up time-limited and quantified targets for the reduction of fatalities and injuries. In setting these targets EU and other organizations have recognized the importance to monitor and predict the development toward the target as well as the efficiency of road safety policies and interventions. This study aims to validate a method to forecast future road safety challenges by applying it to the fatal crashes in Sweden in 2000 and using the method to explain the change in fatalities based on the road safety interventions made until 2010. The estimation of the method is then compared to the true outcome in 2010. The aim of this study was to investigate if a residual of crashes produced by a partial analysis could constitute a sufficient base to describe the characteristics of future crashes. show that out of the 332 car occupants killed in 2000, 197 were estimated to constitute the residual in 2010. Consequently, 135 fatalities from 2000 were estimated by the model to be prevented by 2010. That is a predicted reduction of 41% compared to the reduction in the real outcome of 53%, from 332 in 2000 to 156 in 2010. The method was found able to generate a residual of crashes in 2010 from the crashes in 2000 that had a very similar nature, with regards to crash type, as the true outcome of 2010. It was also found suitable to handle double counting and system effects. However, future research is needed in order to investigate how external factors as well as random and systematic variation should be taken into account in a reliable manner. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the societal burden of fatal occupational injury different among NORA industry sectors?

PubMed

Biddle, Elyce Anne

2013-02-01

Since the implementation of the Occupational Safety and Health Act, safety and health in the work environment has seen marked improvement. Although these improvements are laudable, workplace hazards continue to plague the American worker. Understanding the economic burden of fatalities by industry sector is important to setting broad occupational safety and health research priorities. Cost estimates provide additional information about how fatal injuries affect society and hence can improve injury prevention program planning, policy analysis, evaluation, and advocacy. This study estimated the total, mean, and median societal costs by worker and case characteristic in 2003-2006 for the industry sectors identified in the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health National Occupational Research Agenda (NORA). Analyses were conducted with restricted access to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries data. These data exclude military personnel, decedents with unknown age or sex, and fatalities occurring in New York City. Societal costs were estimated using the cost-of-illness approach, which combines direct and indirect costs to yield an overall cost of an fatal occupational injury. During this period, the cost of the 22,197 fatal occupational injuries exceeded $21 billion. The mean and median costs of these fatalities were $960,000 and $944,000 respectively. Total societal costs by NORA sector ranged from a high of $5.8 billion in Services to a low of $530 million in Healthcare and Social Assistance with mean costs ranging from the nearly $800,000 in Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing to almost $1.1 million in Mining. The societal costs-total, mean, and median costs-of case and worker characteristics for occupational fatal injuries varied within each NORA sector. To have the greatest societal impact, these costs can be used to target resources for public and private sector research by industry. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Is the Societal burden of fatal occupational injury different among NORA industry sectors?

PubMed Central

Biddle, Elyce Anne

2015-01-01

Problem Since the implementation of the Occupational Safety and Health Act, safety and health in the work environment has seen marked improvement. Although these improvements are laudable, workplace hazards continue to plague the American worker. Understanding the economic burden of fatalities by industry sector is important to setting broad occupational safety and health research priorities. Cost estimates provide additional information about how fatal injuries affect society and hence can improve injury prevention program planning, policy analysis, evaluation, and advocacy. Method This study estimated the total, mean, and median societal costs by worker and case characteristic in 2003–2006 for the industry sectors identified in the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health National Occupational Research Agenda (NORA). Analyses were conducted with restricted access to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries data. These data exclude military personnel, decedents with unknown age or sex, and fatalities occurring in New York City. Societal costs were estimated using the cost-of-illness approach, which combines direct and indirect costs to yield an overall cost of an fatal occupational injury. Results During this period, the cost of the 22,197 fatal occupational injuries exceeded $21 billion. The mean and median costs of these fatalities were $960,000 and $944,000 respectively. Total societal costs by NORA sector ranged from a high of $5.8 billion in Services to a low of $530 million in Healthcare and Social Assistance with mean costs ranging from the nearly $800,000 in Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing to almost $1.1 million in Mining. Discussion The societal costs—total, mean, and median costs—of case and worker characteristics for occupational fatal injuries varied within each NORA sector. Impact on Industry To have the greatest societal impact, these costs can be used to target resources for public and private sector research by industry. PMID:23398699

Post-licensure rapid immunization safety monitoring program (PRISM) data characterization.

PubMed

Baker, Meghan A; Nguyen, Michael; Cole, David V; Lee, Grace M; Lieu, Tracy A

2013-12-30

The Post-Licensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring (PRISM) program is the immunization safety monitoring component of FDA's Mini-Sentinel project, a program to actively monitor the safety of medical products using electronic health information. FDA sought to assess the surveillance capabilities of this large claims-based distributed database for vaccine safety surveillance by characterizing the underlying data. We characterized data available on vaccine exposures in PRISM, estimated how much additional data was gained by matching with select state and local immunization registries, and compared vaccination coverage estimates based on PRISM data with other available data sources. We generated rates of computerized codes representing potential health outcomes relevant to vaccine safety monitoring. Standardized algorithms including ICD-9 codes, number of codes required, exclusion criteria and location of the encounter were used to obtain the background rates. The majority of the vaccines routinely administered to infants, children, adolescents and adults were well captured by claims data. Immunization registry data in up to seven states comprised between 5% and 9% of data for all vaccine categories with the exception of 10% for hepatitis B and 3% and 4% for rotavirus and zoster respectively. Vaccination coverage estimates based on PRISM's computerized data were similar to but lower than coverage estimates from the National Immunization Survey and Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set. For the 25 health outcomes of interest studied, the rates of potential outcomes based on ICD-9 codes were generally higher than rates described in the literature, which are typically clinically confirmed cases. PRISM program's data on vaccine exposures and health outcomes appear complete enough to support robust safety monitoring. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Evaluation of the effectiveness of occupational safety and health inspections of construction sites in the Piedmont region from 2001 to 2005].

PubMed

Bruno, Santina; Bena, Antonella; Debernardi, Maria Luisa; Nava, S; Pastore, Raffaella; Proietti, C; Quarta, D

2009-01-01

To assess the effectiveness of safety inspections in the construction industry in Piedmont in terms of exposure to risk and injuries. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the surveillance activities carried out in Piedmont between 2001 and 2005: to this purpose, we used a logical framework and we identified indicators to evaluate the process and its impact on exposure and injuries. fixed standards involving the number of safety inspections and the type of constructions under control were respected; there was always sufficient diversity among the public works under control, although local health units used different working methods. Impact on exposure and injuries: injury rates in the construction industry in Piedmont showed a decreasing trend and systematically lower values compared to national rates. Injury rates in the "roads and railways" sector showed an increasing trend owing to the great number of public works under construction. In this case, the effect of preventive measures seems less noticeable, but this mainly depends on methodological limits, such as mismatch between numerator and denominator, difficulties in estimating the number of workers actually present on the sites, underreporting of minor events. Despite the limitations of a retrospective analysis, the Piedmont safety inspection programme for the construction industry showed coherence with the objectives and had a positive impact on injury rates.

Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

2017-12-01

This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

Technical note: Design flood under hydrological uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botto, Anna; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi; Laio, Francesco

2017-07-01

Planning and verification of hydraulic infrastructures require a design estimate of hydrologic variables, usually provided by frequency analysis, and neglecting hydrologic uncertainty. However, when hydrologic uncertainty is accounted for, the design flood value for a specific return period is no longer a unique value, but is represented by a distribution of values. As a consequence, the design flood is no longer univocally defined, making the design process undetermined. The Uncertainty Compliant Design Flood Estimation (UNCODE) procedure is a novel approach that, starting from a range of possible design flood estimates obtained in uncertain conditions, converges to a single design value. This is obtained through a cost-benefit criterion with additional constraints that is numerically solved in a simulation framework. This paper contributes to promoting a practical use of the UNCODE procedure without resorting to numerical computation. A modified procedure is proposed by using a correction coefficient that modifies the standard (i.e., uncertainty-free) design value on the basis of sample length and return period only. The procedure is robust and parsimonious, as it does not require additional parameters with respect to the traditional uncertainty-free analysis. Simple equations to compute the correction term are provided for a number of probability distributions commonly used to represent the flood frequency curve. The UNCODE procedure, when coupled with this simple correction factor, provides a robust way to manage the hydrologic uncertainty and to go beyond the use of traditional safety factors. With all the other parameters being equal, an increase in the sample length reduces the correction factor, and thus the construction costs, while still keeping the same safety level.

Safety evaluation of improved curve delineation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) organized 26 States to participate in the FHWA Low Cost Safety Improvements Pooled Fund Study as part of its strategic highway safety plan support effort. The purpose of the pooled fund study is to estimate t...

Safety analysis of urban arterials at the meso level.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Wang, Xuesong

2017-11-01

Urban arterials form the main structure of street networks. They typically have multiple lanes, high traffic volume, and high crash frequency. Classical crash prediction models investigate the relationship between arterial characteristics and traffic safety by treating road segments and intersections as isolated units. This micro-level analysis does not work when examining urban arterial crashes because signal spacing is typically short for urban arterials, and there are interactions between intersections and road segments that classical models do not accommodate. Signal spacing also has safety effects on both intersections and road segments that classical models cannot fully account for because they allocate crashes separately to intersections and road segments. In addition, classical models do not consider the impact on arterial safety of the immediately surrounding street network pattern. This study proposes a new modeling methodology that will offer an integrated treatment of intersections and road segments by combining signalized intersections and their adjacent road segments into a single unit based on road geometric design characteristics and operational conditions. These are called meso-level units because they offer an analytical approach between micro and macro. The safety effects of signal spacing and street network pattern were estimated for this study based on 118 meso-level units obtained from 21 urban arterials in Shanghai, and were examined using CAR (conditional auto regressive) models that corrected for spatial correlation among the units within individual arterials. Results showed shorter arterial signal spacing was associated with higher total and PDO (property damage only) crashes, while arterials with a greater number of parallel roads were associated with lower total, PDO, and injury crashes. The findings from this study can be used in the traffic safety planning, design, and management of urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Inherent Safety Margins in Loaded Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Casks

DOE PAGES

Banerjee, Kaushik; Robb, Kevin R.; Radulescu, Georgeta; ...

2016-06-15

We completed a novel assessment to determine the unquantified and uncredited safety margins (i.e., the difference between the licensing basis and as-loaded calculations) available in as-loaded spent nuclear fuel (SNF) casks. This assessment was performed as part of a broader effort to assess issues and uncertainties related to the continued safety of casks during extended storage and transportability following extended storage periods. Detailed analyses crediting the actual as-loaded cask inventory were performed for each of the casks at three decommissioned pressurized water reactor (PWR) sites to determine their characteristics relative to regulatory safety criteria for criticality, thermal, and shielding performance.more » These detailed analyses were performed in an automated fashion by employing a comprehensive and integrated data and analysis tool—Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS). Calculated uncredited criticality margins from 0.07 to almost 0.30 Δk eff were observed; calculated decay heat margins ranged from 4 to almost 22 kW (as of 2014); and significant uncredited transportation dose rate margins were also observed. The results demonstrate that, at least for the casks analyzed here, significant uncredited safety margins are available that could potentially be used to compensate for SNF assembly and canister structural performance related uncertainties associated with long-term storage and subsequent transportation. The results also suggest that these inherent margins associated with how casks are loaded could support future changes in cask licensing to directly or indirectly credit the margins. Work continues to quantify the uncredited safety margins in the SNF casks loaded at other nuclear reactor sites.« less

Effect of Smaller Left Ventricular Capture Threshold Safety Margins to Improve Device Longevity in Recipients of Cardiac Resynchronization-Defibrillation Therapy.

PubMed

Steinhaus, Daniel A; Waks, Jonathan W; Collins, Robert; Kleckner, Karen; Kramer, Daniel B; Zimetbaum, Peter J

2015-07-01

Device longevity in cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is affected by the pacing capture threshold (PCT) and programmed pacing amplitude of the left ventricular (LV) pacing lead. The aims of this study were to evaluate the stability of LV pacing thresholds in a nationwide sample of CRT defibrillator recipients and to determine potential longevity improvements associated with a decrease in the LV safety margin while maintaining effective delivery of CRT. CRT defibrillator patients in the Medtronic CareLink database were eligible for inclusion. LV PCT stability was evaluated using ≥2 measurements over a 14-day period. Separately, a random sample of 7,250 patients with programmed right atrial and right ventricular amplitudes ≤2.5 V, LV thresholds ≤ 2.5 V, and LV pacing ≥90% were evaluated to estimate theoretical battery longevity improvement using LV safety margins of 0.5 and 1.5 V. Threshold stability analysis in 43,256 patients demonstrated LV PCT stability of <0.5 V in 77% of patients and <1 V in 95%. Device longevity analysis showed that the use of a 0.5-V safety margin increased average battery longevity by 0.62 years (95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.63) compared with a safety margin of 1.5 V. Patients with LV PCTs >1 V had the greatest increases in battery life (mean increase 0.86 years, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.87). In conclusion, nearly all CRT defibrillator patients had LV PCT stability <1.0 V. Decreasing the LV safety margin from 1.5 to 0.5 V provided consistent delivery of CRT for most patients and significantly improved battery longevity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pupil Transportation Safety Program Plan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delahanty, Joseph F.; And Others

This study has been undertaken to assess the magnitude of the school bus safety problem and to develop a plan to improve pupil transportation safety. The resulting report provides estimates of school bus population and daily usage, gives an account of injuries and fatalities that occur annually, and compares the safety records of school buses to…

Using in vitro/in silico data for consumer safety assessment of feed flavoring additives--A feasibility study using piperine.

PubMed

Thiel, A; Etheve, S; Fabian, E; Leeman, W R; Plautz, J R

2015-10-01

Consumer health risk assessment for feed additives is based on the estimated human exposure to the additive that may occur in livestock edible tissues compared to its hazard. We present an approach using alternative methods for consumer health risk assessment. The aim was to use the fewest possible number of animals to estimate its hazard and human exposure without jeopardizing the safety upon use. As an example we selected the feed flavoring substance piperine and applied in silico modeling for residue estimation, results from literature surveys, and Read-Across to assess metabolism in different species. Results were compared to experimental in vitro metabolism data in rat and chicken, and to quantitative analysis of residues' levels from the in vivo situation in livestock. In silico residue modeling showed to be a worst case: the modeled residual levels were considerably higher than the measured residual levels. The in vitro evaluation of livestock versus rodent metabolism revealed no major differences in metabolism between the species. We successfully performed a consumer health risk assessment without performing additional animal experiments. As shown, the use and combination of different alternative methods supports animal welfare consideration and provides future perspective to reducing the number of animals. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A meta-analysis of efficacy and safety of antibodies targeting PD-1/PD-L1 in treatment of advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer

PubMed Central

Wang, Cuihua; Yu, Xuetao; Wang, Wei

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC)-patients treated with standard chemotherapy experienced progression rapidly. A novel therapy based on programed death 1 (PD-1)/programed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitors showed an increasing potential in several malignancies including advanced NSCLC. Objectives: This article is a meta-analysis aiming to systematically evaluate the efficacy and safety profiles of PD-1/PD-L1 agents in patients with NSCLC. Data sources: Data were collected from eligible studies searched from PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science. Synthesis methods: Pooled hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) was estimated to assess the efficacy of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors versus docetaxel, pooled odds ratio (OR) was calculated for objective response rate (ORR). The overall frequency was estimated for 1-year OS, 1-year progression-free survival, and ORR. A subgroup analysis among NSCLC patients tested with different epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) status was also performed to figure out the relationship between EGFR status and efficacy of PD-1/PD-L1 therapies. OR for occurrence of any grade and grade 3 to 5 treatment-related adverse effect was calculated for evaluating the safety of PD-1/PD-L1 therapies. Results: Nine studies were included in this analysis. The pooled HRs for OS and PFS were 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61–0.75) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.91), respectively, the pooled OR for ORR was 1.83 (95% CI 1.41–2.36), indicating a significant improvement in OS, PFS, and ORR. In the results of subgroup analysis, the HR for OS in NSCLC patients was 1.05 (95% CI 0.69–1.59) in patients with mutant EGFR and 0.66 (95% CI 0.57–0.77) in patients with wild-type EGFR status. OR for occurrence was 0.36 (95% CI 0.28–0.46) in any grade treatment-related adverse effect and 0.18 (95% CI 0.14–0.22) in grade 3 to 5 treatment-related adverse effect, suggesting a superior safety profile of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors. Conclusion: The PD-1/PD-L1 therapy significantly prolonged the OS and improved the ORR, simultaneously lowering the treatment-related adverse effect events versus docetaxel. PMID:28033249

Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, incidence, and residual transmission risk in first-time and repeat blood donations in Zimbabwe: implications on blood safety.

PubMed

Mapako, Tonderai; Mvere, David A; Chitiyo, McLeod E; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

2013-10-01

National Blood Service Zimbabwe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk management strategy includes screening and discarding of first-time donations, which are collected in blood packs without an anticoagulant (dry pack). To evaluate the impact of discarding first-time donations on blood safety the HIV prevalence, incidence, and residual risk in first-time and repeat donations (wet packs) were compared. Donor data from 2002 to 2010 were retrieved from a centralized national electronic donor database and retrospectively analyzed. Chi-square test was used to compare HIV prevalence with relative risk (RR), and the RR point estimates and 95% confidence interval (CI) are reported. Trend analysis was done using Cochran-Armitage trend test. HIV residual risk estimates were determined using published residual risk estimation models. Over the 9 years the overall HIV prevalence estimates are 1.29% (n = 116,058) and 0.42% (n = 434,695) for first-time and repeat donations, respectively. The overall RR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9-3.3; p < 0.0001). The overall mean residual transmission risk of HIV window phase donations in first-time was 1:7384 (range, 1:11,308-1:5356) and in repeat donors it was 1:5496 (range, 1:9943-1:3347). The significantly high HIV prevalence estimates recorded in first-time over repeat donations is indicative of the effectiveness of the HIV risk management strategy. However, comparable residual transmission risk estimates in first-time and repeat donors point to the need to further review the risk management strategies. Given the potential wastage of valuable resources, future studies should focus on the cost-effectiveness and utility of screening and discarding first-time donations. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

Dietary Supplement Adverse Event Report Data From the FDA Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition Adverse Event Reporting System (CAERS), 2004-2013.

PubMed

Timbo, Babgaleh B; Chirtel, Stuart J; Ihrie, John; Oladipo, Taiye; Velez-Suarez, Loy; Brewer, Vickery; Mozersky, Robert

2018-05-01

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA)'s Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN) oversees the safety of the nation's foods, dietary supplements, and cosmetic products. To present a descriptive analysis of the 2004-2013 dietary supplement adverse event report (AER) data from CAERS and evaluate the 2006 Dietary Supplements and Nonprescription Drug Consumer Protection Act as pertaining to dietary supplements adverse events reporting. We queried CAERS for data from the 2004-2013 AERs specifying at least 1 suspected dietary supplement product. We extracted the product name(s), the symptom(s) reported, age, sex, and serious adverse event outcomes. We examined time trends for mandatory and voluntary reporting and performed analysis using SAS v9.4 and R v3.3.0 software. Of the total AERs (n = 15 430) received from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2013, indicating at least 1 suspected dietary supplement product, 66.9% were mandatory, 32.2% were voluntary, and 0.9% were both mandatory and voluntary. Reported serious outcomes included death, life-threatening conditions, hospitalizations, congenital anomalies/birth defects and events requiring interventions to prevent permanent impairments (5.1%). The dietary supplement adverse event reporting rate in the United States was estimated at ~2% based on CAERS data. This study characterizes CAERS dietary supplement adverse event data for the 2004-2013 period and estimates a reporting rate of 2% for dietary supplement adverse events based on CAERS data. The findings show that the 2006 Dietary Supplements and Nonprescription Drug Consumer Protection Act had a substantial impact on the reporting of adverse events.

Predicting performance and safety based on driver fatigue.

PubMed

Mollicone, Daniel; Kan, Kevin; Mott, Chris; Bartels, Rachel; Bruneau, Steve; van Wollen, Matthew; Sparrow, Amy R; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2018-04-02

Fatigue causes decrements in vigilant attention and reaction time and is a major safety hazard in the trucking industry. There is a need to quantify the relationship between driver fatigue and safety in terms of operationally relevant measures. Hard-braking events are a suitable measure for this purpose as they are relatively easily observed and are correlated with collisions and near-crashes. We developed an analytic approach that predicts driver fatigue based on a biomathematical model and then estimates hard-braking events as a function of predicted fatigue, controlling for time of day to account for systematic variations in exposure (traffic density). The analysis used de-identified data from a previously published, naturalistic field study of 106 U.S. commercial motor vehicle (CMV) drivers. Data analyzed included drivers' official duty logs, sleep patterns measured around the clock using wrist actigraphy, and continuous recording of vehicle data to capture hard-braking events. The curve relating predicted fatigue to hard-braking events showed that the frequency of hard-braking events increased as predicted fatigue levels worsened. For each increment on the fatigue scale, the frequency of hard-braking events increased by 7.8%. The results provide proof of concept for a novel approach that predicts fatigue based on drivers' sleep patterns and estimates driving performance in terms of an operational metric related to safety. The approach can be translated to practice by CMV operators to achieve a fatigue risk profile specific to their own settings, in order to support data-driven decisions about fatigue countermeasures that cost-effectively deliver quantifiable operational benefits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pipeline safety fund : minimum balance was not reasonably estimated

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-04-01

The Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS), a component of the Research and Special Programs Administration (RSPA) of the Department of Transportation (DOT), performs a variety of activities related to the safety of natural gas (NG) and hazardous liquid (HL...

Safety evaluation of advance street name signs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) organized 26 States to participate in the FHWA Low-Cost Safety Improvements Pooled Fund Study as part of its strategic highway safety plan support effort. The purpose of the pooled fund study is to estimate t...

Unintentional and undetermined firearm related deaths: a preventable death analysis for three safety devices.

PubMed

Vernick, J S; O'Brien, M; Hepburn, L M; Johnson, S B; Webster, D W; Hargarten, S W

2003-12-01

To determine the proportion of unintentional and undetermined firearm related deaths preventable by three safety devices: personalization devices, loaded chamber indicators (LCIs), and magazine safeties. A personalized gun will operate only for an authorized user, a LCI indicates when the gun contains ammunition, and a magazine safety prevents the gun from firing when the ammunition magazine is removed. Information about all unintentional and undetermined firearm deaths from 1991-98 was obtained from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner for Maryland, and from the Wisconsin Firearm Injury Reporting System for Milwaukee. Data regarding the victim, shooter, weapon, and circumstances were abstracted. Coding rules to classify each death as preventable, possibly preventable, or not preventable by each of the three safety devices were also applied. There were a total of 117 firearm related deaths in our sample, 95 (81%) involving handguns. Forty three deaths (37%) were classified as preventable by a personalized gun, 23 (20%) by a LCI, and five (4%) by a magazine safety. Overall, 52 deaths (44%) were preventable by at least one safety device. Deaths involving children 0-17 (relative risk (RR) 3.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1 to 5.1) and handguns (RR 8.1, 95% CI 1.2 to 53.5) were more likely to be preventable. Projecting the findings to the entire United States, an estimated 442 deaths might have been prevented in 2000 had all guns been equipped with these safety devices. Incorporating safety devices into firearms is an important injury intervention, with the potential to save hundreds of lives each year.

Triangulating case-finding tools for patient safety surveillance: a cross-sectional case study of puncture/laceration.

PubMed

Taylor, Jennifer A; Gerwin, Daniel; Morlock, Laura; Miller, Marlene R

2011-12-01

To evaluate the need for triangulating case-finding tools in patient safety surveillance. This study applied four case-finding tools to error-associated patient safety events to identify and characterise the spectrum of events captured by these tools, using puncture or laceration as an example for in-depth analysis. Retrospective hospital discharge data were collected for calendar year 2005 (n=48,418) from a large, urban medical centre in the USA. The study design was cross-sectional and used data linkage to identify the cases captured by each of four case-finding tools. Three case-finding tools (International Classification of Diseases external (E) and nature (N) of injury codes, Patient Safety Indicators (PSI)) were applied to the administrative discharge data to identify potential patient safety events. The fourth tool was Patient Safety Net, a web-based voluntary patient safety event reporting system. The degree of mutual exclusion among detection methods was substantial. For example, when linking puncture or laceration on unique identifiers, out of 447 potential events, 118 were identical between PSI and E-codes, 152 were identical between N-codes and E-codes and 188 were identical between PSI and N-codes. Only 100 events that were identified by PSI, E-codes and N-codes were identical. Triangulation of multiple tools through data linkage captures potential patient safety events most comprehensively. Existing detection tools target patient safety domains differently, and consequently capture different occurrences, necessitating the integration of data from a combination of tools to fully estimate the total burden.

Efficacy and Safety of Zoledronic Acid for Treatment of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Wang, Chao

We conducted a meta-analysis based on eligible studies to assess the efficacy and safety of zoledronic acid treatment for postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were searched for eligible studies that assessed the efficacy of zoledronic acid in the prevention of fractures among postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. The primary outcomes were new vertebral fracture, nonvertebral fracture, and hip fracture. Secondary outcomes were bone mineral density (BMD) and safety outcomes. A fixed-effect or random-effect model was used to pool the estimates according to the heterogeneity among the included studies. Eight randomized controlled trials, involving 13,335 patients, were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled results showed that treatment with zoledronic acid significantly reduced the incidences of nonvertebral fractures, vertebral fractures, and hip fractures, as compared with placebo. Zoledronic acid was also associated with significant improvement in BMD at lumbar spine, total hip, femoral neck, and trochanter. However, the incidence of any adverse events was higher in the zoledronic acid group than that in the control group, and serious adverse events were comparable between the 2 groups. This meta-analysis indicated that zoledronic acid could significantly reduce the fracture risk and increase BMD in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Furthermore, it would not result in serious adverse events. Zoledronic acid could be used as an effective and well-tolerated treatment for postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.

Can cyclist safety be improved with intelligent transport systems?

PubMed

Silla, Anne; Leden, Lars; Rämä, Pirkko; Scholliers, Johan; Van Noort, Martijn; Bell, Daniel

2017-08-01

In recent years, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) have assisted in the decrease of road traffic fatalities, particularly amongst passenger car occupants. Vulnerable Road Users (VRUs) such as pedestrians, cyclists, moped riders and motorcyclists, however, have not been that much in focus when developing ITS. Therefore, there is a clear need for ITS which specifically address VRUs as an integrated element of the traffic system. This paper presents the results of a quantitative safety impact assessment of five systems that were estimated to have high potential to improve the safety of cyclists, namely: Blind Spot Detection (BSD), Bicycle to Vehicle communication (B2V), Intersection safety (INS), Pedestrian and Cyclist Detection System+Emergency Braking (PCDS+EBR) and VRU Beacon System (VBS). An ex-ante assessment method proposed by Kulmala (2010) targeted to assess the effects of ITS for cars was applied and further developed in this study to assess the safety impacts of ITS specifically designed for VRUs. The main results of the assessment showed that all investigated systems affect cyclist safety in a positive way by preventing fatalities and injuries. The estimates considering 2012 accident data and full penetration showed that the highest effects could be obtained by the implementation of PCDS+EBR and B2V, whereas VBS had the lowest effect. The estimated yearly reduction in cyclist fatalities in the EU-28 varied between 77 and 286 per system. A forecast for 2030, taking into accounts the estimated accident trends and penetration rates, showed the highest effects for PCDS+EBR and BSD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Ultimate Tensile Strength of dentin Using Finite Element Analysis from Endodontically Treated Tooth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinthaworn, S.; Puengpaiboon, U.; Warasetrattana, N.; Wanapaisarn, S.

2018-01-01

Endodontically treated teeth were simulated by finite element analysis in order to estimate ultimate tensile strength of dentin. Structures of the endodontically treated tooth cases are flared root canal, restored with different number of fiber posts {i.e. resin composite core without fiber post (group 1), fiber post No.3 with resin composite core (group 2) and fiber post No.3 accessory 2 fiber posts No.0 with resin composite core (group 3)}. Elastic modulus and Poisson’s ratio of materials were selected from literatures. The models were loaded by the average fracture resistances load of each groups (group 1: 361.80 N, group 2: 559.46 N, group 3: 468.48 N) at 135 degree angulation in respect to the longitudinal axis of the teeth. The stress analysis and experimental confirm that fracture zone is at dentin area. To estimate ultimate tensile strength of dentin, trial and error of ultimate tensile strength were tested to obtain factor of safety (FOS) equal to 1.00. The result reveals that ultimate tensile strength of dentin of group 1, 2, 3 are 38.89, 30.96, 37.19 MPa, respectively.

Thermal-hydraulic analysis capabilities and methods development at NYPA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feltus, M.A.

1987-01-01

The operation of a nuclear power plant must be regularly supported by various thermal-hydraulic (T/H) analyses that may include final safety analysis report (FSAR) design basis calculations and licensing evaluations and conservative and best-estimate analyses. The development of in-house T/H capabilities provides the following advantages: (a) it leads to a better understanding of the plant design basis and operating characteristics; (b) methods developed can be used to optimize plant operations and enhance plant safety; (c) such a capability can be used for design reviews, checking vendor calculations, and evaluating proposed plant modifications; and (d) in-house capability reduces the cost ofmore » analysis. This paper gives an overview of the T/H capabilities and current methods development activity within the engineering department of the New York Power Authority (NYPA) and will focus specifically on reactor coolant system (RCS) transients and plant dynamic response for non-loss-of-coolant accident events. This paper describes NYPA experience in performing T/H analyses in support of pressurized water reactor plant operation.« less

Patient Safety Incidents and Nursing Workload 1

PubMed Central

Carlesi, Katya Cuadros; Padilha, Kátia Grillo; Toffoletto, Maria Cecília; Henriquez-Roldán, Carlos; Juan, Monica Andrea Canales

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: to identify the relationship between the workload of the nursing team and the occurrence of patient safety incidents linked to nursing care in a public hospital in Chile. Method: quantitative, analytical, cross-sectional research through review of medical records. The estimation of workload in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) was performed using the Therapeutic Interventions Scoring System (TISS-28) and for the other services, we used the nurse/patient and nursing assistant/patient ratios. Descriptive univariate and multivariate analysis were performed. For the multivariate analysis we used principal component analysis and Pearson correlation. Results: 879 post-discharge clinical records and the workload of 85 nurses and 157 nursing assistants were analyzed. The overall incident rate was 71.1%. It was found a high positive correlation between variables workload (r = 0.9611 to r = 0.9919) and rate of falls (r = 0.8770). The medication error rates, mechanical containment incidents and self-removal of invasive devices were not correlated with the workload. Conclusions: the workload was high in all units except the intermediate care unit. Only the rate of falls was associated with the workload. PMID:28403334

Establishing the value of occupational health nurses' contributions to worker health and safety: a pilot test of a user-friendly estimation tool.

PubMed

Graeve, Catherine; McGovern, Patricia; Nachreiner, Nancy M; Ayers, Lynn

2014-01-01

Occupational health nurses use their knowledge and skills to improve the health and safety of the working population; however, companies increasingly face budget constraints and may eliminate health and safety programs. Occupational health nurses must be prepared to document their services and outcomes, and use quantitative tools to demonstrate their value to employers. The aim of this project was to create and pilot test a quantitative tool for occupational health nurses to track their activities and potential cost savings for on-site occupational health nursing services. Tool developments included a pilot test in which semi-structured interviews with occupational health and safety leaders were conducted to identify currents issues and products used for estimating the value of occupational health nursing services. The outcome was the creation of a tool that estimates the economic value of occupational health nursing services. The feasibility and potential value of this tool is described.

10 CFR 830.204 - Documented safety analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Documented safety analysis. 830.204 Section 830.204 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY NUCLEAR SAFETY MANAGEMENT Safety Basis Requirements § 830.204 Documented safety analysis... approval from DOE for the methodology used to prepare the documented safety analysis for the facility...

The impact of composite AUC estimates on the prediction of systemic exposure in toxicology experiments.

PubMed

Sahota, Tarjinder; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-06-01

Current toxicity protocols relate measures of systemic exposure (i.e. AUC, Cmax) as obtained by non-compartmental analysis to observed toxicity. A complicating factor in this practice is the potential bias in the estimates defining safe drug exposure. Moreover, it prevents the assessment of variability. The objective of the current investigation was therefore (a) to demonstrate the feasibility of applying nonlinear mixed effects modelling for the evaluation of toxicokinetics and (b) to assess the bias and accuracy in summary measures of systemic exposure for each method. Here, simulation scenarios were evaluated, which mimic toxicology protocols in rodents. To ensure differences in pharmacokinetic properties are accounted for, hypothetical drugs with varying disposition properties were considered. Data analysis was performed using non-compartmental methods and nonlinear mixed effects modelling. Exposure levels were expressed as area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC), peak concentrations (Cmax) and time above a predefined threshold (TAT). Results were then compared with the reference values to assess the bias and precision of parameter estimates. Higher accuracy and precision were observed for model-based estimates (i.e. AUC, Cmax and TAT), irrespective of group or treatment duration, as compared with non-compartmental analysis. Despite the focus of guidelines on establishing safety thresholds for the evaluation of new molecules in humans, current methods neglect uncertainty, lack of precision and bias in parameter estimates. The use of nonlinear mixed effects modelling for the analysis of toxicokinetics provides insight into variability and should be considered for predicting safe exposure in humans.

Hospital survey on patient safety culture: psychometric analysis on a Scottish sample.

PubMed

Sarac, Cakil; Flin, Rhona; Mearns, Kathryn; Jackson, Jeanette

2011-10-01

To investigate the psychometric properties of the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture on a Scottish NHS data set. The data were collected from 1969 clinical staff (estimated 22% response rate) from one acute hospital from each of seven Scottish Health boards. Using a split-half validation technique, the data were randomly split; an exploratory factor analysis was conducted on the calibration data set, and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted on the validation data set to investigate and check the original US model fit in a Scottish sample. Following the split-half validation technique, exploratory factor analysis results showed a 10-factor optimal measurement model. The confirmatory factor analyses were then performed to compare the model fit of two competing models (10-factor alternative model vs 12-factor original model). An S-B scaled χ(2) square difference test demonstrated that the original 12-factor model performed significantly better in a Scottish sample. Furthermore, reliability analyses of each component yielded satisfactory results. The mean scores on the climate dimensions in the Scottish sample were comparable with those found in other European countries. This study provided evidence that the original 12-factor structure of the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale has been replicated in this Scottish sample. Therefore, no modifications are required to the original 12-factor model, which is suggested for use, since it would allow researchers the possibility of cross-national comparisons.

Safety evaluation of offset improvements for left-turn lanes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) organized 26 States to participate in the FHWA Low Cost Safety Improvements Pooled Fund Study as part of its strategic highway safety plan support effort. The purpose of the pooled fund study is to estimate t...

Network meta-analysis of multiple outcome measures accounting for borrowing of information across outcomes

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Network meta-analysis (NMA) enables simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments while preserving randomisation. When summarising evidence to inform an economic evaluation, it is important that the analysis accurately reflects the dependency structure within the data, as correlations between outcomes may have implication for estimating the net benefit associated with treatment. A multivariate NMA offers a framework for evaluating multiple treatments across multiple outcome measures while accounting for the correlation structure between outcomes. Methods The standard NMA model is extended to multiple outcome settings in two stages. In the first stage, information is borrowed across outcomes as well across studies through modelling the within-study and between-study correlation structure. In the second stage, we make use of the additional assumption that intervention effects are exchangeable between outcomes to predict effect estimates for all outcomes, including effect estimates on outcomes where evidence is either sparse or the treatment had not been considered by any one of the studies included in the analysis. We apply the methods to binary outcome data from a systematic review evaluating the effectiveness of nine home safety interventions on uptake of three poisoning prevention practices (safe storage of medicines, safe storage of other household products, and possession of poison centre control telephone number) in households with children. Analyses are conducted in WinBUGS using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Results Univariate and the first stage multivariate models produced broadly similar point estimates of intervention effects but the uncertainty around the multivariate estimates varied depending on the prior distribution specified for the between-study covariance structure. The second stage multivariate analyses produced more precise effect estimates while enabling intervention effects to be predicted for all outcomes, including intervention effects on outcomes not directly considered by the studies included in the analysis. Conclusions Accounting for the dependency between outcomes in a multivariate meta-analysis may or may not improve the precision of effect estimates from a network meta-analysis compared to analysing each outcome separately. PMID:25047164

Impact of Modified System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA) methodology on prescribing costs of ACE inhibitors.

PubMed

Alabbadi, Ibrahim; Crealey, Grainne; Scott, Michael; Baird, Simon; Trouton, Tom; Mairs, Jill; McElnay, James

2006-01-01

System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA) is a structured approach to the selection of drugs for formulary inclusion. How- ever, while SOJA is a very important advance in drug selection for formulary purposes, it is hospital based and can only be applied to one indication at a time. In SOJA, cost has been given a primary role in the selection process as it has been included as a selection criterion from the start. Cost may therefore drive the selection of a particular drug product at the expense of other basic criteria such as safety or efficacy. The aims of this study were to use a modified SOJA approach in the selection of ACE inhibitors (ACEIs) for use in a joint formulary that bridges primary and secondary care within a health board in Northern Ireland, and to investigate the potential impact of the joint formulary on prescribing costs of ACEIs in that health board. The modified SOJA approach involved four phases in sequence: an evidence-based pharmacotherapeutic evaluation of all available ACEI drug entities, a separate safety/risk assessment analysis of products containing agents that exceeded the pharmacotherapeutic threshold, a budget-impact analysis and, finally, the selection of product lines. A comprehensive literature review and expert panel judgement informed the selection of criteria (and their relative weighting) for the pharmacotherapeutic evaluation. The resultant criteria/scoring system was circulated (in questionnaire format) to prescribers and stakeholders for comment. Based on statistical analysis of the latter survey results, the final scoring system was developed. Drug entities that exceeded the evidence threshold were sequentially entered into the second and third phases of the process. Five drug entities (11 currently available in the UK) exceeded the evidence threshold and 22 of 26 submitted product lines containing these drug entities satisfied the safety/risk assessment criteria. Three product lines, each containing a different drug entity, were selected for formulary inclusion after budget impact analysis was performed. The estimated potential annual cost savings for ACEIs (based on estimated annual usage in defined daily doses) for this particular health board was 42%. The modified SOJA approach has a significant contribution to make in containing the costs of ACEIs. Applying modified SOJA as a practical method for all indications will allow the development of a unified formulary that bridges secondary and primary care.

Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

2017-05-01

With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

Estimate of mortality reduction with implementation of advanced automatic collision notification.

PubMed

Lee, Ellen; Wu, Jingshu; Kang, Thomas; Craig, Matthew

2017-05-29

Advanced Automatic Collision Notification (AACN) is a system on a motor vehicle that notifies a public safety answering point (PSAP), either directly or through a third party, that the vehicle has had a crash. AACN systems enable earlier notification of a motor vehicle crash and provide an injury prediction that can help dispatchers and first responders make better decisions about how and where to transport the patient, thus getting the patient to definitive care sooner. The purposes of the current research are to identify the target population that could benefit from AACN, and to develop a reasonable estimate range of potential lives saved with implementation of AACN within the vehicle fleet. Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) years 2009-2015 and National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) years 2000-2015 were obtained. FARS data were used to determine absolute estimates of the target population who may receive benefit from AACN. These estimates accounted for a number of factors, such as whether a fatal occupant had nearby access to a trauma center and also was correctly identified by the injury severity prediction algorithm as having a "high probability of severe injury." NASS-CDS data were used to provide relative comparisons among subsets of the population. Specifically, relative survival rate ratios between occupants treated at trauma centers versus at non-trauma centers were determined using the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. Finally, the fatality reduction rate associated with trauma center care was combined with the previously published fatality reduction rate for faster notification time to develop a range for possible lives saved. Two relevant target populations were identified. A larger subset of 6893 fatalities can benefit only from earlier notification associated with AACN. A smaller subgroup of between 1495 and 2330 fatalities can benefit from both earlier notification and change in treatment destination (i.e., non-trauma center to trauma center). A Kaplan-Meier life curve and a multiple proportional hazard model were used to predict the benefits associated with transport to a trauma center. The resulting range for potential lives saved annually was 360 to 721. This analysis provides the estimates of lives that could potentially be saved with full implementation of AACN and universal cell coverage availability. This represents a fatality reduction of approximately 1.6% to 3.3% per year, and more than double the lives saved by earlier notification alone. In conclusion, AACN is a postcrash technology with a promising potential for safety benefit. AACN is therefore a key component of integrated safety systems that aim to protect occupants across the entire crash spectrum.

Probability of Failure Analysis Standards and Guidelines for Expendable Launch Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilde, Paul D.; Morse, Elisabeth L.; Rosati, Paul; Cather, Corey

2013-09-01

Recognizing the central importance of probability of failure estimates to ensuring public safety for launches, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and U.S. Air Force (USAF), through the Common Standards Working Group (CSWG), developed a guide for conducting valid probability of failure (POF) analyses for expendable launch vehicles (ELV), with an emphasis on POF analysis for new ELVs. A probability of failure analysis for an ELV produces estimates of the likelihood of occurrence of potentially hazardous events, which are critical inputs to launch risk analysis of debris, toxic, or explosive hazards. This guide is intended to document a framework for POF analyses commonly accepted in the US, and should be useful to anyone who performs or evaluates launch risk analyses for new ELVs. The CSWG guidelines provide performance standards and definitions of key terms, and are being revised to address allocation to flight times and vehicle response modes. The POF performance standard allows a launch operator to employ alternative, potentially innovative methodologies so long as the results satisfy the performance standard. Current POF analysis practice at US ranges includes multiple methodologies described in the guidelines as accepted methods, but not necessarily the only methods available to demonstrate compliance with the performance standard. The guidelines include illustrative examples for each POF analysis method, which are intended to illustrate an acceptable level of fidelity for ELV POF analyses used to ensure public safety. The focus is on providing guiding principles rather than "recipe lists." Independent reviews of these guidelines were performed to assess their logic, completeness, accuracy, self- consistency, consistency with risk analysis practices, use of available information, and ease of applicability. The independent reviews confirmed the general validity of the performance standard approach and suggested potential updates to improve the accuracy each of the example methods, especially to address reliability growth.

Estimating changes in public health following implementation of hazard analysis and critical control point in the United States broiler slaughter industry.

PubMed

Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D

2012-01-01

A common approach to reducing microbial contamination has been the implementation of a Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) program to prevent or reduce contamination during production. One example is the Pathogen Reduction HACCP program implemented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). This program consisted of a staged implementation between 1996 and 2000 to reduce microbial contamination on meat and poultry products. Of the commodities regulated by FSIS, one of the largest observed reductions was for Salmonella contamination on broiler chicken carcasses. Nevertheless, how this reduction might have influenced the total number of salmonellosis cases in the United States has not been assessed. This study incorporates information from public health surveillance and surveys of the poultry slaughter industry into a model that estimates the number of broiler-related salmonellosis cases through time. The model estimates that-following the 56% reduction in the proportion of contaminated broiler carcasses observed between 1995 and 2000-approximately 190,000 fewer annual salmonellosis cases (attributed to broilers) occurred in 2000 compared with 1995. The uncertainty bounds for this estimate range from approximately 37,000 to 500,000 illnesses. Estimated illnesses prevented, due to the more modest reduction in contamination of 13% between 2000 and 2007, were not statistically significant. An analysis relating the necessary magnitude of change in contamination required for detection via human surveillance also is provided.

Local data will help Michigan make better safety investment decisions : research spotlight.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-07-01

MDOT staff are aiming to use data-driven processes and practices from the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM) to estimate the safety impacts of various crash reduction strategies and highway design alternatives, such as adding a median or varying the ...

14 CFR Appendix B to Part 415 - Safety Review Document Outline

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

....0Flight Safety (§ 415.115) 4.1Initial Flight Safety Analysis 4.1.1Flight Safety Sub-Analyses, Methods, and... Analysis Data 4.2Radionuclide Data (where applicable) 4.3Flight Safety Plan 4.3.1Flight Safety Personnel 4... Safety (§ 415.117) 5.1Ground Safety Analysis Report 5.2Ground Safety Plan 6.0Launch Plans (§ 415.119 and...

14 CFR Appendix B to Part 415 - Safety Review Document Outline

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

....0Flight Safety (§ 415.115) 4.1Initial Flight Safety Analysis 4.1.1Flight Safety Sub-Analyses, Methods, and... Analysis Data 4.2Radionuclide Data (where applicable) 4.3Flight Safety Plan 4.3.1Flight Safety Personnel 4... Safety (§ 415.117) 5.1Ground Safety Analysis Report 5.2Ground Safety Plan 6.0Launch Plans (§ 415.119 and...

Characteristics of effective health and safety committees: survey results.

PubMed

Morse, Tim; Bracker, Anne; Warren, Nicholas; Goyzueta, Jeanette; Cook, Matthew

2013-02-01

Although perhaps the most common worker-management structure, there has been surprisingly little research on describing and evaluating the characteristics of health and safety committees. A survey of 380 health and safety committee members from 176 manufacturing workplaces was supplemented with administrative data and compared with reported workers' compensation rates. Survey respondents also reported perceptions of overall safety, committee, effectiveness, committee activities, and "best practices." Extensive descriptive data is presented, including a mean of 8.7 members per committee spending 1,167 hr per year on committee business for an estimate of $40,500 worth of time per committee. Higher speed to correct action items, a focus on ergonomics, and planning for safety training was associated with lower injury rates. The discrepancy between managers and hourly committee members in estimating overall safety was strongly positively associated with injury rates. Communications and worker involvement may be important to address discrepancy issues. Prospective studies are needed to distinguish directionality of associations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gougar, Hans

This document outlines the development of a high fidelity, best estimate nuclear power plant severe transient simulation capability that will complement or enhance the integral system codes historically used for licensing and analysis of severe accidents. As with other tools in the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Toolkit, the ultimate user of Enhanced Severe Transient Analysis and Prevention (ESTAP) capability is the plant decision-maker; the deliverable to that customer is a modern, simulation-based safety analysis capability, applicable to a much broader class of safety issues than is traditional Light Water Reactor (LWR) licensing analysis. Currently, the RISMC pathway’s majormore » emphasis is placed on developing RELAP-7, a next-generation safety analysis code, and on showing how to use RELAP-7 to analyze margin from a modern point of view: that is, by characterizing margin in terms of the probabilistic spectra of the “loads” applied to systems, structures, and components (SSCs), and the “capacity” of those SSCs to resist those loads without failing. The first objective of the ESTAP task, and the focus of one task of this effort, is to augment RELAP-7 analyses with user-selected multi-dimensional, multi-phase models of specific plant components to simulate complex phenomena that may lead to, or exacerbate, severe transients and core damage. Such phenomena include: coolant crossflow between PWR assemblies during a severe reactivity transient, stratified single or two-phase coolant flow in primary coolant piping, inhomogeneous mixing of emergency coolant water or boric acid with hot primary coolant, and water hammer. These are well-documented phenomena associated with plant transients but that are generally not captured in system codes. They are, however, generally limited to specific components, structures, and operating conditions. The second ESTAP task is to similarly augment a severe (post-core damage) accident integral analyses code with high fidelity simulations that would allow investigation of multi-dimensional, multi-phase containment phenomena that are only treated approximately in established codes.« less

Tank characterization report for double-shell tank 241-AW-105

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sasaki, L.M.

1997-06-05

One of the major functions of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) is to characterize wastes in support of waste management and disposal activities at the Hanford Site. Analytical data from sampling and analysis, along with other available information about a tank, are compiled and maintained in a tank characterization report (TCR). This report and its appendices serve as the TCR for double-shell tank 241-AW-105. The objectives of this report are to use characterization data in response to technical issues associated with tank 241-AW-105 waste; and to provide a standard characterization of this waste in terms of a best-basis inventorymore » estimate. The response to technical issues is summarized in Section 2.0, and the best-basis inventory estimate is presented in Section 3.0. Recommendations regarding safety status and additional sampling needs are provided in Section 4.0. Supporting data and information are contained in the appendices. This report supports the requirements of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order milestone Characterization. information presented in this report originated from sample analyses and known historical sources. While only the results of a recent sampling event will be used to fulfill the requirements of the data quality objectives (DQOs), other information can be used to support or question conclusions derived from these results. Historical information for tank 241-AW-105 is provided in Appendix A, including surveillance information, records pertaining to waste transfers and tank operations, and expected tank contents derived from a process knowledge model. The recent sampling event listed, as well as pertinent sample data obtained before 1996, are summarized in Appendix B along with the sampling results. The results of the 1996 grab sampling event satisfied the data requirements specified in the sampling and analysis plan (SAP) for this tank. In addition, the tank headspace flammability was measured, which addresses one of the requirements specified in the safety screening DQO. The statistical analysis and numerical manipulation of data used in issue resolution are reported in Appendix C. Appendix D contains the evaluation to establish the best basis for the inventory estimate and the statistical analysis performed for this evaluation. A bibliography that resulted from an in-depth literature search of all known information sources applicable to tank 241-AW-105 and its respective waste types is contained in Appendix E. A majority of the documents listed in Appendix E may be found in the Tank Characterization and Safety Resource Center.« less

Evaluation of Brazed Joints Using Failure Assessment Diagram

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flom, Yury

2012-01-01

Fitness-for service approach was used to perform structural analysis of the brazed joints consisting of several base metal / filler metal combinations. Failure Assessment Diagrams (FADs) based on tensile and shear stress ratios were constructed and experimentally validated. It was shown that such FADs can provide a conservative estimate of safe combinations of stresses in the brazed joints. Based on this approach, Margins of Safety (MS) of the brazed joints subjected to multi-axial loading conditions can be evaluated..

Experimental validation of a Lyapunov-based controller for the plasma safety factor and plasma pressure in the TCV tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavkov, B.; Witrant, E.; Prieur, C.; Maljaars, E.; Felici, F.; Sauter, O.; the TCV-Team

2018-05-01

In this paper, model-based closed-loop algorithms are derived for distributed control of the inverse of the safety factor profile and the plasma pressure parameter β of the TCV tokamak. The simultaneous control of the two plasma quantities is performed by combining two different control methods. The control design of the plasma safety factor is based on an infinite-dimensional setting using Lyapunov analysis for partial differential equations, while the control of the plasma pressure parameter is designed using control techniques for single-input and single-output systems. The performance and robustness of the proposed controller is analyzed in simulations using the fast plasma transport simulator RAPTOR. The control is then implemented and tested in experiments in TCV L-mode discharges using the RAPTOR model predicted estimates for the q-profile. The distributed control in TCV is performed using one co-current and one counter-current electron cyclotron heating actuation.

Stakeholder Perceptions of Risk in Construction.

PubMed

Zhao, Dong; McCoy, Andrew P; Kleiner, Brian M; Mills, Thomas H; Lingard, Helen

2016-02-01

Safety management in construction is an integral effort and its success requires inputs from all stakeholders across design and construction phases. Effective risk mitigation relies on the concordance of all stakeholders' risk perceptions. Many researchers have noticed the discordance of risk perceptions among critical stakeholders in safe construction work, however few have provided quantifiable evidence describing them. In an effort to fill this perception gap, this research performs an experiment that investigates stakeholder perceptions of risk in construction. Data analysis confirms the existence of such discordance, and indicates a trend in risk likelihood estimation. With risk perceptions from low to high, the stakeholders are architects, contractors/safety professionals, and engineers. Including prior studies, results also suggest that designers have improved their knowledge in building construction safety, but compared to builders they present more difficultly in reaching a consensus of perception. Findings of this research are intended to be used by risk management and decision makers to reassess stakeholders' varying judgments when considering injury prevention and hazard assessment.

Stakeholder Perceptions of Risk in Construction

PubMed Central

Zhao, Dong; McCoy, Andrew P.; Kleiner, Brian M.; Mills, Thomas H.; Lingard, Helen

2015-01-01

Safety management in construction is an integral effort and its success requires inputs from all stakeholders across design and construction phases. Effective risk mitigation relies on the concordance of all stakeholders’ risk perceptions. Many researchers have noticed the discordance of risk perceptions among critical stakeholders in safe construction work, however few have provided quantifiable evidence describing them. In an effort to fill this perception gap, this research performs an experiment that investigates stakeholder perceptions of risk in construction. Data analysis confirms the existence of such discordance, and indicates a trend in risk likelihood estimation. With risk perceptions from low to high, the stakeholders are architects, contractors/safety professionals, and engineers. Including prior studies, results also suggest that designers have improved their knowledge in building construction safety, but compared to builders they present more difficultly in reaching a consensus of perception. Findings of this research are intended to be used by risk management and decision makers to reassess stakeholders’ varying judgments when considering injury prevention and hazard assessment. PMID:26441481

The safety and pharmacokinetics of cyanidin-3-glucoside after 2-week administration of black bean seed coat extract in healthy subjects.

PubMed

Jeon, Sangil; Han, Seunghoon; Lee, Jongtae; Hong, Taegon; Yim, Dong-Seok

2012-08-01

We analyzed the pharmacokinetics of C3G on data from twelve subjects, after 2-week multiple dosing of black bean (Phaseolus vulgaris, Cheongjakong-3-ho) seed coat extract, using the mixed effect analysis method (NONMEM, Ver. 6.2), as well as the conventional non-compartmental method. We also examined the safety and tolerability. The PK analysis used plasma concentrations of the C3G on day 1 and 14. There was no observed accumulation of C3G after 2-week multiple dosing of black bean seed coat extract. The typical point estimates of PK were CL (clearance)=3,420 l/h, V (volume)=7,280 L, Ka (absorption constant)=9.94 h(-1), ALAG (lag time)=0.217 h. The black bean seed coat extract was well tolerated and there were no serious adverse events. In this study, we confirmed that a significant amount of C3G was absorbed in human after given the black bean seed coat extract.

Online Dectection and Modeling of Safety Boundaries for Aerospace Application Using Bayesian Statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Yuning

2015-01-01

The behavior of complex aerospace systems is governed by numerous parameters. For safety analysis it is important to understand how the system behaves with respect to these parameter values. In particular, understanding the boundaries between safe and unsafe regions is of major importance. In this paper, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling approach for the online detection and characterization of such boundaries. Our method for classification with active learning uses a particle filter-based model and a boundary-aware metric for best performance. From a library of candidate shapes incorporated with domain expert knowledge, the location and parameters of the boundaries are estimated using advanced Bayesian modeling techniques. The results of our boundary analysis are then provided in a form understandable by the domain expert. We illustrate our approach using a simulation model of a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system, as well as a system for the detection of separation violations in the terminal airspace.

Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulargia, Francesco; Stark, Philip B.; Geller, Robert J.

2017-03-01

Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria.

A bicycle safety index for evaluating urban street facilities.

PubMed

Asadi-Shekari, Zohreh; Moeinaddini, Mehdi; Zaly Shah, Muhammad

2015-01-01

The objectives of this research are to conceptualize the Bicycle Safety Index (BSI) that considers all parts of the street and to propose a universal guideline with microscale details. A point system method comparing existing safety facilities to a defined standard is proposed to estimate the BSI. Two streets in Singapore and Malaysia are chosen to examine this model. The majority of previous measurements to evaluate street conditions for cyclists usually cannot cover all parts of streets, including segments and intersections. Previous models also did not consider all safety indicators and cycling facilities at a microlevel in particular. This study introduces a new concept of a practical BSI to complete previous studies using its practical, easy-to-follow, point system-based outputs. This practical model can be used in different urban settings to estimate the level of safety for cycling and suggest some improvements based on the standards.

Safety assessment methodology in management of spent sealed sources.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Narmine Salah

2005-02-14

Environmental hazards can be caused from radioactive waste after their disposal. It was therefore important that safety assessment methodologies be developed and established to study and estimate the possible hazards, and institute certain safety methodologies that lead and prevent the evolution of these hazards. Spent sealed sources are specific type of radioactive waste. According to IAEA definition, spent sealed sources are unused sources because of activity decay, damage, misuse, loss, or theft. Accidental exposure of humans from spent sealed sources can occur at the moment they become spent and before their disposal. Because of that reason, safety assessment methodologies were tailored to suit the management of spent sealed sources. To provide understanding and confidence of this study, validation analysis was undertaken by considering the scenario of an accident that occurred in Egypt, June 2000 (the Meet-Halfa accident from an iridium-192 source). The text of this work includes consideration related to the safety assessment approaches of spent sealed sources which constitutes assessment context, processes leading an active source to be spent, accident scenarios, mathematical models for dose calculations, and radiological consequences and regulatory criteria. The text also includes a validation study, which was carried out by evaluating a theoretical scenario compared to the real scenario of Meet-Halfa accident depending on the clinical assessment of affected individuals.

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

The use of generalized estimating equations in the analysis of motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Hutchings, Caroline B; Knight, Stacey; Reading, James C

2003-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is necessary to use generalized estimating equations (GEEs) in the analysis of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries in motor vehicle crashes. The 1992 Utah crash dataset was used, excluding crash participants where seat belt use was not appropriate (n=93,633). The model used in the 1996 Report to Congress [Report to congress on benefits of safety belts and motorcycle helmets, based on data from the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES). National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, Washington, DC, February 1996] was analyzed for all occupants with logistic regression, one level of nesting (occupants within crashes), and two levels of nesting (occupants within vehicles within crashes) to compare the use of GEEs with logistic regression. When using one level of nesting compared to logistic regression, 13 of 16 variance estimates changed more than 10%, and eight of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10%. In addition, three of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant (alpha=0.05). With the use of two levels of nesting, two of 16 variance estimates and three of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10% from the variance and parameter estimates in one level of nesting. One of the independent variables changed from insignificant to significant (alpha=0.05) in the two levels of nesting model; therefore, only two of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant when the logistic regression model was compared to the two levels of nesting model. The odds ratio of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries was 12% lower when a one-level nested model was used. Based on these results, we stress the need to use a nested model and GEEs when analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

Facing the Recession: How Did Safety-Net Hospitals Fare Financially Compared with Their Peers?

PubMed Central

Reiter, Kristin L; Jiang, H Joanna; Wang, Jia

2014-01-01

Objective To examine the effect of the recession on the financial performance of safety-net versus non-safety-net hospitals. Data Sources/Study Setting Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Hospital Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases, Medicare Cost Reports, American Hospital Association Annual Survey, InterStudy, and Area Health Resource File. Study Design Retrospective, longitudinal panel of hospitals, 2007–2011. Safety-net hospitals were identified using percentage of patients who were Medicaid or uninsured. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate average effects of the recession on hospital operating and total margins, revenues and expenses in each year, 2008–2011, comparing safety-net with non-safety-net hospitals. Data Collection/Extraction Methods 1,453 urban, nonfederal, general acute hospitals in 32 states with complete data. Principal Findings Safety-net hospitals, as identified in 2007, had lower operating and total margins. The gap in operating margin between safety-net and non-safety-net hospitals was sustained throughout the recession; however, total margin was more negatively affected for non-safety-net hospitals in 2008. Higher percentages of Medicaid and uninsured patients were associated with lower revenue in private hospitals in all years, and lower revenue and expenses in public hospitals in 2011. Conclusions Safety-net hospitals may not be disproportionately vulnerable to macro-economic fluctuations, but their significantly lower margins leave less financial cushion to weather sustained financial pressure. PMID:25220012

Comparison of Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation and trabeculectomy for glaucoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

HaiBo, Tan; Xin, Kang; ShiHeng, Lu; Lin, Liu

2015-01-01

To compare the efficacy and safety of Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation (AGV) with trabeculectomy in the management of glaucoma patients. A comprehensive literature search (PubMed, Embase, Google, and the Cochrane library) was performed, including a systematic review with meta-analysis of controlled clinical trials comparing AGV versus trabeculectomy. Efficacy estimates were the weighted mean differences (WMDs) for the percentage intraocular pressure reduction (IOPR %) from baseline to end-point, the reduction in glaucoma medications, and the odds ratios (ORs) for complete and qualified success rates. Safety estimates were the relative risks (RRs) for adverse events. All outcomes were reported with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Statistical analysis was performed using the RevMan 5.0 software. Six controlled clinical trials were included in this meta-analysis. There was no significant difference between the AGV and trabeculectomy in the IOPR% (WMD = -3.04, 95% CI: -8.36- 2.26; P = 0.26). The pooled ORs comparing AGV with trabeculectomy were 0.46 (0.22, 0.99) for the complete success rate (P = 0.05) and 0.97 (0.78-1.20) for the quantified success rate (P = 0.76). No significant difference in the reduction in glaucoma medicines was observed (WMD = 0.24; 95% CI: -0.27-0.76; P = 0.35). AGV was found to be associated with a significantly lower frequency of all adverse events (RR = 0.71; 95%CI: 1.14-0.97; p = 0.001) than trabeculectomy, while the most common complications did not differ significantly (all p> 0.05). AGV was equivalent to trabeculectomy in reducing the IOP, the number of glaucoma medications, success rates, and rates of the most common complications. However, AGV was associated with a significantly lower frequency of overall adverse events.

Discontinuum-Equivalent Continuum Analysis of the Stability of Tunnels in a Deep Coal Mine Using the Distinct Element Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shreedharan, Srisharan; Kulatilake, Pinnaduwa H. S. W.

2016-05-01

An imperative task for successful underground mining is to ensure the stability of underground structures. This is more so for deep excavations which may be under significantly high stresses. In this manuscript, we present stability studies on two tunnels, a horseshoe-shaped and an inverted arch-shaped tunnel, in a deep coal mine in China, performed using the 3DEC distinct element code. The rock mass mechanical property values for the tunnel shapes have been estimated through a back-analysis procedure using available field deformation data. The back-analysis has been carried out through a pseudo-time dependent support installation routine which incorporates the effect of time through a stress-relaxation mechanism. The back-analysis indicates that the rock mass cohesion, tensile strength, uniaxial compressive strength, and elastic modulus values are about 35-45 % of the corresponding intact rock property values. Additionally, the importance of incorporating stress relaxation before support installation has been illustrated through the increased support factor of safety and reduced grout failures. The calibrated models have been analyzed for different supported and unsupported cases to estimate the significance and adequacy of the current supports being used in the mine and to suggest a possible optimization. The effects of supports have been demonstrated using deformations and yield zones around the tunnels, and average factors of safety and grout failures of the supports. The use of longer supports and floor bolting has provided greater stability for the rock masses around the tunnels. Finally, a comparison between the two differently shaped tunnels establishes that the inverted arch tunnel may be more efficient in reducing roof sag and floor heave for the existing geo-mining conditions.

Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique

2006-07-01

There has been considerable research conducted on the development of statistical models for predicting crashes on highway facilities. Despite numerous advancements made for improving the estimation tools of statistical models, the most common probabilistic structure used for modeling motor vehicle crashes remains the traditional Poisson and Poisson-gamma (or Negative Binomial) distribution; when crash data exhibit over-dispersion, the Poisson-gamma model is usually the model of choice most favored by transportation safety modelers. Crash data collected for safety studies often have the unusual attributes of being characterized by low sample mean values. Studies have shown that the goodness-of-fit of statistical models produced from such datasets can be significantly affected. This issue has been defined as the "low mean problem" (LMP). Despite recent developments on methods to circumvent the LMP and test the goodness-of-fit of models developed using such datasets, no work has so far examined how the LMP affects the fixed dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models used for modeling motor vehicle crashes. The dispersion parameter plays an important role in many types of safety studies and should, therefore, be reliably estimated. The primary objective of this research project was to verify whether the LMP affects the estimation of the dispersion parameter and, if it is, to determine the magnitude of the problem. The secondary objective consisted of determining the effects of an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter on common analyses performed in highway safety studies. To accomplish the objectives of the study, a series of Poisson-gamma distributions were simulated using different values describing the mean, the dispersion parameter, and the sample size. Three estimators commonly used by transportation safety modelers for estimating the dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models were evaluated: the method of moments, the weighted regression, and the maximum likelihood method. In an attempt to complement the outcome of the simulation study, Poisson-gamma models were fitted to crash data collected in Toronto, Ont. characterized by a low sample mean and small sample size. The study shows that a low sample mean combined with a small sample size can seriously affect the estimation of the dispersion parameter, no matter which estimator is used within the estimation process. The probability the dispersion parameter becomes unreliably estimated increases significantly as the sample mean and sample size decrease. Consequently, the results show that an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter can significantly undermine empirical Bayes (EB) estimates as well as the estimation of confidence intervals for the gamma mean and predicted response. The paper ends with recommendations about minimizing the likelihood of producing Poisson-gamma models with an unreliable dispersion parameter for modeling motor vehicle crashes.

Integrity modelling of tropospheric delay models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rózsa, Szabolcs; Bastiaan Ober, Pieter; Mile, Máté; Ambrus, Bence; Juni, Ildikó

2017-04-01

The effect of the neutral atmosphere on signal propagation is routinely estimated by various tropospheric delay models in satellite navigation. Although numerous studies can be found in the literature investigating the accuracy of these models, for safety-of-life applications it is crucial to study and model the worst case performance of these models using very low recurrence frequencies. The main objective of the INTegrity of TROpospheric models (INTRO) project funded by the ESA PECS programme is to establish a model (or models) of the residual error of existing tropospheric delay models for safety-of-life applications. Such models are required to overbound rare tropospheric delays and should thus include the tails of the error distributions. Their use should lead to safe error bounds on the user position and should allow computation of protection levels for the horizontal and vertical position errors. The current tropospheric model from the RTCA SBAS Minimal Operational Standards has an associated residual error that equals 0.12 meters in the vertical direction. This value is derived by simply extrapolating the observed distribution of the residuals into the tail (where no data is present) and then taking the point where the cumulative distribution has an exceedance level would be 10-7.While the resulting standard deviation is much higher than the estimated standard variance that best fits the data (0.05 meters), it surely is conservative for most applications. In the context of the INTRO project some widely used and newly developed tropospheric delay models (e.g. RTCA MOPS, ESA GALTROPO and GPT2W) were tested using 16 years of daily ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis numerical weather model data and the raytracing technique. The results showed that the performance of some of the widely applied models have a clear seasonal dependency and it is also affected by a geographical position. In order to provide a more realistic, but still conservative estimation of the residual error of tropospheric delays, the mathematical formulation of the overbounding models are currently under development. This study introduces the main findings of the residual error analysis of the studied tropospheric delay models, and discusses the preliminary analysis of the integrity model development for safety-of-life applications.

Safety Profile and Costs of Related Adverse Events of Trastuzumab Emtansine for the Treatment of HER2-Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Compared to Capecitabine Plus Lapatinib from the Perspective of the Canadian Health-Care System.

PubMed

Piwko, Charles; Prady, Catherine; Yunger, Simon; Pollex, Erika; Moser, Aurelie

2015-08-01

Trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1, KADCYLA(®)) is an antibody-drug conjugate comprised of the cytotoxic agent DM1 and trastuzumab (HERCEPTIN(®)). The safety profile of T-DM1 in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer previously treated with trastuzumab and a taxane was investigated in the phase III EMILIA trial. The trial demonstrated clinically and statistically meaningful differences in the safety profile between T-DM1 and capecitabine plus lapatinib (CAP + LAP). The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of managing treatment-related grade ≥ 3 adverse events (AEs) that occurred in ≥ 2% of patients and grade 2 AEs that occurred in ≥ 5% of patients taking T-DM1 compared with patients taking CAP + LAP based on the EMILIA trial, from the perspective of Canadian public payers. An Excel-based model was utilized to estimate the relevant costs. Clinical data were obtained from the EMILIA trial. Cost information was obtained from the literature, clinical experts, and standard cost sources. The analysis was conducted from the Canadian public-payer perspective and reported in 2014 Canadian dollars (CAD). The management of included treatment-related AEs resulted in higher estimated per-patient costs of CAD6901 for CAP + LAP versus CAD3380 for T-DM1, resulting in savings of CAD3521. From a Canadian perspective, this analysis demonstrated that utilizing T-DM1 for the management of HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer results in substantial savings to the public health-care system when considering the costs of treatment-related AEs, due to fewer amount of toxicities compared with CAP + LAP. Results of various sensitivity analyses investigating changes in number and costs of AEs confirmed the findings; however, the magnitude of cost savings varied. Further analyses are necessary to determine whether these cost savings would occur in other countries and health-care systems.

76 FR 9817 - Standard on Commercial Diving Operations; Extension of the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-22

... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Occupational Safety and Health Administration [Docket No. OSHA-2011-0008... of Information Collection (Paperwork) Requirements AGENCY: Occupational Safety and Health... OSHA's estimate of the information collection burden is accurate. The Occupational Safety and Health...

Validation of a GC-MS method for the estimation of dithiocarbamate fungicide residues and safety evaluation of mancozeb in fruits and vegetables.

PubMed

Mujawar, Sumaiyya; Utture, Sagar C; Fonseca, Eddie; Matarrita, Jessie; Banerjee, Kaushik

2014-05-01

A sensitive and rugged residue analysis method was validated for the estimation of dithiocarbamate fungicides in a variety of fruit and vegetable matrices. The sample preparation method involved reaction of dithiocarbamates with Tin(II) chloride in aqueous HCl. The CS2 produced was absorbed into an isooctane layer and estimated by GC-MS selected ion monitoring. Limit of quantification (LOQ) was ⩽40μgkg(-1) for grape, green chilli, tomato, potato, brinjal, pineapple and chayote and the recoveries were within 75-104% (RSD<15% at LOQ). The method could be satisfactorily applied for analysis of real world samples. Dissipation of mancozeb, the most-used dithiocarbamate fungicide, in field followed first+first order kinetics with pre-harvest intervals of 2 and 4days in brinjal, 7 and 10days in grapes and 0day in chilli at single and double dose of agricultural applications. Cooking practices were effective for removal of mancozeb residues from vegetables. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near real-time vaccine safety surveillance with partially accrued data.

PubMed

Greene, Sharon K; Kulldorff, Martin; Yin, Ruihua; Yih, W Katherine; Lieu, Tracy A; Weintraub, Eric S; Lee, Grace M

2011-06-01

The Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) Project conducts near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using sequential analytic methods. Timely surveillance is critical in identifying potential safety problems and preventing additional exposure before most vaccines are administered. For vaccines that are administered during a short period, such as influenza vaccines, timeliness can be improved by undertaking analyses while risk windows following vaccination are ongoing and by accommodating predictable and unpredictable data accrual delays. We describe practical solutions to these challenges, which were adopted by the VSD Project during pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccine safety surveillance in 2009/2010. Adjustments were made to two sequential analytic approaches. The Poisson-based approach compared the number of pre-defined adverse events observed following vaccination with the number expected using historical data. The expected number was adjusted for the proportion of the risk window elapsed and the proportion of inpatient data estimated to have accrued. The binomial-based approach used a self-controlled design, comparing the observed numbers of events in risk versus comparison windows. Events were included in analysis only if they occurred during a week that had already passed for both windows. Analyzing data before risk windows fully elapsed improved the timeliness of safety surveillance. Adjustments for data accrual lags were tailored to each data source and avoided biasing analyses away from detecting a potential safety problem, particularly early during surveillance. The timeliness of vaccine and drug safety surveillance can be improved by properly accounting for partially elapsed windows and data accrual delays. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Workplace Bullying, Job Stress, Intent to Leave, and Nurses' Perceptions of Patient Safety in South Korean Hospitals.

PubMed

Oh, Hyunjin; Uhm, Dong-Choon; Yoon, Young Joo

2016-01-01

Negative work environments influence the ability of nurses to provide optimal patient care in a safe environment. The purpose of the study was to test a model linking workplace bullying (WPB) and lateral violence (LV) with job stress, intent to leave, and, subsequently, nurse-assessed patient adverse outcomes (safety issues). This descriptive-correlational study examined the relationships between study variables and used a structural equation model to test the validity of the proposed theoretical framework. A convenience sample of 508 clinical nurses working in eight general hospitals in Daejeon, South Korea, completed a questionnaire on measures of WPB, LV, job stress, intent to leave, and nurse-assessed patient safety. Analysis of moment structures was used to estimate a set of three models with competing measurement structures for WPB and LV and the same structural model. Akaike Information Criterion was used for model selection. Among the three proposed models, the model with complex factor loadings was selected (WPB and LV were both associated with verbal abuse and physical threat). WPB directly and indirectly influenced nurse-assessed patient safety. Job stress directly influenced intent to leave, and intent to leave directly influenced nurse-assessed patient safety. The results of the study support the proposition that WPB, job stress, and intent to leave may be associated with nurse-perceived adverse outcomes (patient safety issues) in hospitals. Nurse perceptions of WPB were associated with nurse-assessed patient safety outcomes (adverse events) directly and through mediating job stress and intent to leave. LV was not associated with the mediators or nurse-assessed adverse outcomes (safety).

[New international initiatives to create systems of effective risk prediction and food safety].

PubMed

Efimochkinal, N R; Bagryantseva, E C; Dupouy, E C; Khotimchenko, S A; Permyakov, E V; Sheveleva, S A; Arnautov, O V

2016-01-01

Ensuring food safety is one of the most important problems that is directly related to health protection of the population. The problem is particularly relevant on aglobalscale because ofincreasingnumberoffood-borne diseases andimportance of the health consequence early detection. In accordance with the position of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, food safety concept also includes quality. In this case, creation of the national, supranational and international early warning systems related to the food safety, designed with the purpose to prevent or minimize risks on different stages of the food value chain in various countries, regions and climate zones specific to national nutrition and lifestyle in different groups of population, gains particular importance. The article describes the principles and working examples of international, supranational and national food safety early warning systems. Great importance is given to the hazards of microbial origin - emergent pathogens. Example of the rapid reaction to the appearance of cases, related to the melanin presence in infant formula, are presented. Analysis of the current food safety and quality control system in Russian Federation shows that main improvements are mostly related to the development of the efficient monitoring, diagnostics and rapid alert procedures forfood safety on interregional and international levels that will allow to estimate real contamination of food with the most dangerous pathogens, chemical and biological contaminants, and the development of the electronic database and scientifically proved algorithms for food safety and quality management for targeted prevention activities against existing and emerging microbiological and other etiology risks, and public health protection.

Evaluation of the Level of Food Safety Protection Provided by the U.S. Grade "A" Pasteurized Milk Ordinance and Its Associated Cooperative Grade "A" Milk Safety Program.

PubMed

Ma, Yinqing; Klontz, Karl C; DiNovi, Michael J; Edwards, Alison J; Hennes, Robert F

2015-08-01

The present study was conducted to evaluate the level of food safety protection provided to consumers of Grade "A" milk and milk products in the United States by the National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments (NCIMS) Grade "A" Milk Safety Program through its implementation and enforcement of the U.S. Grade "A" Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO). The number of reported illnesses associated with Grade "A" milk and milk products in the United States was obtained from state and federal agencies and published articles. The consumption of Grade "A" milk and milk products in the United States was estimated from food consumption survey data for individuals. The level of food safety protection was measured quantitatively using the metric of annual illness attack rate. During a 15-year period (1999 through 2013), the estimated annual illness attack rate was 0.41 reported illnesses per 1 billion exposures (estimated using person-day intake data) or 0.52 reported illnesses per 1 billion lb (454 million kg) of Grade "A" milk and milk products consumed. Food safety protection provided to consumers of Grade "A" milk and milk products by the NCIMS through its implementation and enforcement of the PMO is important given the common consumption of Grade "A" milk and milk products in the United States.

Safety envelope for load tolerance of structural element design based on multi-stage testing

DOE PAGES

Park, Chanyoung; Kim, Nam H.

2016-09-06

Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope usingmore » Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.« less

Infrastructure stability surveillance with high resolution InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balz, Timo; Düring, Ralf

2017-02-01

The construction of new infrastructure in largely unknown and difficult environments, as it is necessary for the construction of the New Silk Road, can lead to a decreased stability along the construction site, leading to an increase in landslide risk and deformation caused by surface motion. This generally requires a thorough pre-analysis and consecutive surveillance of the deformation patterns to ensure the stability and safety of the infrastructure projects. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) and the derived techniques of multi-baseline InSAR are very powerful tools for a large area observation of surface deformation patterns. With InSAR and deriver techniques, the topographic height and the surface motion can be estimated for large areas, making it an ideal tool for supporting the planning, construction, and safety surveillance of new infrastructure elements in remote areas.

Methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2015-07-01

This paper proposes methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions. An accident modification function is a mathematical function describing systematic variation in the effects of road safety measures. The paper describes ten guidelines. An example is given of how to use the guidelines. The importance of exploratory analysis and an iterative approach in developing accident modification functions is stressed. The example shows that strict compliance with all the guidelines may be difficult, but represents a level of stringency that should be strived for. Currently the main limitations in developing accident modification functions are the small number of good evaluation studies and the often huge variation in estimates of effect. It is therefore still not possible to develop accident modification functions for very many road safety measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the utilization of medical devices necessary to detect postmarket safety differences: A case study of implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

PubMed

Bates, Jonathan; Parzynski, Craig S; Dhruva, Sanket S; Coppi, Andreas; Kuntz, Richard; Li, Shu-Xia; Marinac-Dabic, Danica; Masoudi, Frederick A; Shaw, Richard E; Warner, Frederick; Krumholz, Harlan M; Ross, Joseph S

2018-06-12

To estimate medical device utilization needed to detect safety differences among implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) generator models and compare these estimates to utilization in practice. We conducted repeated sample size estimates to calculate the medical device utilization needed, systematically varying device-specific safety event rate ratios and significance levels while maintaining 80% power, testing 3 average adverse event rates (3.9, 6.1, and 12.6 events per 100 person-years) estimated from the American College of Cardiology's 2006 to 2010 National Cardiovascular Data Registry of ICDs. We then compared with actual medical device utilization. At significance level 0.05 and 80% power, 34% or fewer ICD models accrued sufficient utilization in practice to detect safety differences for rate ratios <1.15 and an average event rate of 12.6 events per 100 person-years. For average event rates of 3.9 and 12.6 events per 100 person-years, 30% and 50% of ICD models, respectively, accrued sufficient utilization for a rate ratio of 1.25, whereas 52% and 67% for a rate ratio of 1.50. Because actual ICD utilization was not uniformly distributed across ICD models, the proportion of individuals receiving any ICD that accrued sufficient utilization in practice was 0% to 21%, 32% to 70%, and 67% to 84% for rate ratios of 1.05, 1.15, and 1.25, respectively, for the range of 3 average adverse event rates. Small safety differences among ICD generator models are unlikely to be detected through routine surveillance given current ICD utilization in practice, but large safety differences can be detected for most patients at anticipated average adverse event rates. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effect of recent trends in vehicle design on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled, and their projected future relationship with vehicle mass.

PubMed

Wenzel, Tom

2013-07-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT). The current NHTSA analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. LBNL's assessment of the analysis indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in the previous studies, and statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars. The effects three recent trends in vehicle designs and technologies have on societal fatality risk per VMT are estimated, and whether these changes might affect the relationship between vehicle mass and fatality risk in the future. Side airbags are found to reduce fatality risk in cars, but not necessarily light trucks or CUVs/minivans, struck in the side by another light-duty vehicle; reducing the number of fatalities in cars struck in the side is predicted to reduce the estimated detrimental effect of footprint reduction, but increase the detrimental effect of mass reduction, in cars on societal fatality risk. Better alignment of light truck bumpers with those of other vehicles appears to result in a statistically significant reduction in risk imposed on car occupants; however, reducing this type of fatality will likely have little impact on the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, shifting light truck drivers into safer, car-based vehicles, such as sedans, CUVs, and minivans, would result in larger reductions in societal fatalities than expected from even substantial reductions in the masses of light trucks. A strategy of shifting drivers from truck-based to car-based vehicles would reduce fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, while improving societal safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 17604 - Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Roof Crush Resistance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-07

... Safety Analysis & Forensic Engineering, LLC (SAFE) brought to our attention errors in the preamble that incorrectly attributed to it the comments of another organization, Safety Analysis, Inc. Both of these... Safety Analysis, Inc. SAFE noted that there is no affiliation between SAFE and Safety Analysis, Inc. and...

Relating traffic fatalities to GDP in Europe on the long term.

PubMed

Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Lassarre, Sylvain

2016-07-01

Modeling road safety development can provide important insight into policies for the reduction of traffic fatalities. In order to achieve this goal, both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters, as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed, need to be considered. One of the key relationships in road safety links fatalities with risk and exposure, where exposure reflects the amount of travel, which in turn translates to how much travelers are exposed to risk. In general two economic variables: GDP and unemployment rate are selected to analyse the statistical relationships with some indicators of road accident fatality risk. The objective of this research is to provide an overview of relevant literature on the topic and outline some recent developments in macro-panel data analysis that have resulted in ongoing research that has the potential to improve our ability to forecast traffic fatality trends, especially under turbulent financial situations. For this analysis, time series of the number of fatalities and GDP in 30 European countries for a period of 38 years (1975-2012) are used. This process relies on estimating long-term models (as captured by long term time-series models, which model each country separately). Based on these developments, utilizing state-of-the-art modelling and analysis techniques such as the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator (Pesaran), the long-term elasticity mean value equals 0.63, and is significantly different from zero for 10 countries only. When we take away the countries, where the number of fatalities is stationary, the average elasticity takes a higher value of nearly 1. This shows the strong sensitivity of the estimate of the average elasticity over a panel of European countries and underlines the necessity to be aware of the underlying nature of the time series, to get a suitable regression model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety Assessment for the Kozloduy National Disposal Facility in Bulgaria - 13507

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biurrun, E.; Haverkamp, B.; Lazaro, A.

2013-07-01

Due to the early decommissioning of four Water-Water Energy Reactors (WWER) 440-V230 reactors at the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) near the city of Kozloduy in Bulgaria, large amounts of low and intermediate radioactive waste will arise much earlier than initially scheduled. In or-der to manage the radioactive waste from the early decommissioning, Bulgaria has intensified its efforts to provide a near surface disposal facility at Radiana with the required capacity. To this end, a project was launched and assigned in international competition to a German-Spanish consortium to provide the complete technical planning including the preparation of the Intermediate Safety Assessmentmore » Report. Preliminary results of operational and long-term safety show compliance with the Bulgarian regulatory requirements. The long-term calculations carried out for the Radiana site are also a good example of how analysis of safety assessment results can be used for iterative improvements of the assessment by pointing out uncertainties and areas of future investigations to reduce such uncertainties in regard to the potential radiological impact. The computer model used to estimate the long-term evolution of the future repository at Radiana predicted a maximum total annual dose for members of the critical group, which is carried to approximately 80 % by C-14 for a specific ingestion pathway. Based on this result and the outcome of the sensitivity analysis, existing uncertainties were evaluated and areas for reasonable future investigations to reduce these uncertainties were identified. (authors)« less

Assessment of occupational safety risks in Floridian solid waste systems using Bayesian analysis.

PubMed

Bastani, Mehrad; Celik, Nurcin

2015-10-01

Safety risks embedded within solid waste management systems continue to be a significant issue and are prevalent at every step in the solid waste management process. To recognise and address these occupational hazards, it is necessary to discover the potential safety concerns that cause them, as well as their direct and/or indirect impacts on the different types of solid waste workers. In this research, our goal is to statistically assess occupational safety risks to solid waste workers in the state of Florida. Here, we first review the related standard industrial codes to major solid waste management methods including recycling, incineration, landfilling, and composting. Then, a quantitative assessment of major risks is conducted based on the data collected using a Bayesian data analysis and predictive methods. The risks estimated in this study for the period of 2005-2012 are then compared with historical statistics (1993-1997) from previous assessment studies. The results have shown that the injury rates among refuse collectors in both musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have decreased from 88 and 15 to 16 and three injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. However, a contrasting trend is observed for the injury rates among recycling workers, for whom musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have increased from 13 and four injuries to 14 and six injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. Lastly, a linear regression model has been proposed to identify major elements of the high number of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries. © The Author(s) 2015.

24 CFR 232.565 - Maximum loan amount.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Fire Safety Equipment Eligible Security Instruments § 232.565 Maximum loan amount. The principal amount of the loan shall not exceed the lower of the Commissioner's estimate of the cost of the fire safety... Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Commissioner to enhance the fire safety of the project, and...

24 CFR 232.565 - Maximum loan amount.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Fire Safety Equipment Eligible Security Instruments § 232.565 Maximum loan amount. The principal amount of the loan shall not exceed the lower of the Commissioner's estimate of the cost of the fire safety... Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Commissioner to enhance the fire safety of the project, and...

24 CFR 232.565 - Maximum loan amount.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Fire Safety Equipment Eligible Security Instruments § 232.565 Maximum loan amount. The principal amount of the loan shall not exceed the lower of the Commissioner's estimate of the cost of the fire safety... Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Commissioner to enhance the fire safety of the project, and...

Biological Response Modifiers in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Safety

PubMed Central

Tank, Nitishkumar D.; Karelia, Bharti N.; Vegada, Bhavisha N.

2017-01-01

Objective: To analyze available evidence on the safety of different biological response modifiers which are used for a treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Materials and Methods: We searched systematically for randomized controlled clinical trials on treatment of RA with different biological response modifiers, followed by a systematic review with meta-analysis. Trials were searched from MEDLINE and Cochrane Library databases. The following safety parameters reported in the selected trials were analyzed: number of patients suffering any adverse event (AE), withdrawal due to AEs, serious AE (SAEs), infections, serious infections, infusion reactions, injection site reactions, malignancies, and overall mortality. Undesired effects were estimated using combined relative risks (RR) and number needed to harm (NNH). Heterogeneity was evaluated by Cochrane's Q and I2 statistics. Results: According to inclusion criteria, a total of 43 trials (20,504 patients) were included in this study. A total number of AEs were found more with abatacept (RR: 1.05, NNH: 21.93). Withdrawal due to AEs was found with all biologicals, highest with anakinra (RR: 3.48, NNH: 15.70). Patients receiving newer tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors, golimumab, were more likely to develop SAEs (RR: 2.44, NNH: 12.72) and infection (RR: 1.25, NNH: 10.09), and in certolizumab, serious infections (RR: 2.95, NNH: 37.31) were found more. Infusion reaction develops more with rituximab (RR: 1.52, NNH: 8.47). Etanercept showed the highest risk to develop infusion site reaction (RR: 5.33, NNH: 4.65). Biologicals showed no difference to their control counterparts in malignancy and mortality risk. Conclusion: This meta-analysis helps to clarify some frequently encountered and unanswered safety questions of different biological response modifiers, a new class of drugs, in the clinical care of RA patients. PMID:29081616

Analysis of Return and Forward Links from STARS' Flight Demonstration 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gering, James A.

2003-01-01

Space-based Telemetry And Range Safety (STARS) is a Kennedy Space Center (KSC) led proof-of-concept demonstration, which utilizes NASA's space network of Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS) as a pathway for launch and mission related information streams. Flight Demonstration 1 concluded on July 15,2003 with the seventh flight of a Low Power Transmitter (LPT) a Command and Data Handler (C&DH), a twelve channel GPS receiver and associated power supplies and amplifiers. The equipment flew on NASA's F-I5 aircraft at the Dryden Flight Research Center located at Edwards Air Force Base in California. During this NASA-ASEE Faculty Fellowship, the author participated in the collection and analysis of data from the seven flights comprising Flight Demonstration 1. Specifically, the author examined the forward and return links bit energy E(sub B) (in Watt-seconds) divided by the ambient radio frequency noise N(sub 0) (in Watts / Hertz). E(sub b)/N(sub 0) is commonly thought of as a signal-to-noise parameter, which characterizes a particular received radio frequency (RF) link. Outputs from the data analysis include the construction of time lines for all flights, production of graphs of range safety values for all seven flights, histograms of range safety E(sub b)/N(sub 0) values in five dB increments, calculation of associated averages and standard deviations, production of graphs of range user E(sub b)/N(sub 0) values for the all flights, production of graphs of AGC's and E(sub b)/N(sub 0) estimates for flight 1, recorded onboard, transmitted directly to the launch head and transmitted through TDRS. The data and graphs are being used to draw conclusions related to a lower than expected signal strength seen in the range safety return link.

Is "Safety-in-numbers" theory applies to the pattern of pedestrian accidents in Seoul, South Korea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Y.; Yoon, H.

2016-12-01

Every year, about 1.25 million people die of vehicle-related accidents, among which half are pedestrians with higher vulnerability: pedestrian, cyclists and motorcyclist (World Health Organization, 2016). This urges city governments in the world to strive for pedestrian safety and to apply diverse theories to transportation planning and design. The common belief is that the number of pedestrian accidents is directly and positively associated with the volume of pedestrian, however, another hypothesis, called "safety-in-numbers" effect, tells an opposite story in that accident rates declines with increase of the volume of pedestrian. In this study, we examine first, whether the safety-in-numbers theory applies to the pattern of pedestrian accidents in Seoul, and second, further investigate environmental factors that are associated with the pedestrian safety. On the first count, we use geospatial statistical analyses of the multi-year pedestrian accident data collected by Korea Road Traffic Authority (KoRoad) and the pedestrian volume data collected by SK Telecom (SKT). With Kernel Density Estimation and Bivariate Local Moran's I, we identify spatial clustering of pedestrian accidents in the city, and examine whether those locations match with concentrations of pedestrian volume. On the second count, we use statistical analysis, tobit, poisson and negative binomial regression to investigate relationships between pedestrian volume and number of pedestrian accident for the two types of geographic areas by the results of the aforementioned analysis; Area 1- locations of high volume of pedestrian with high number of accident, Area 2- locations of high volume of pedestrian with low number of accident. For environmental factors potentially explaining pedestrian accidents, we include land use composition, number of traffic lanes, crosswalk presence, pedestrian signal, traffic island and sidewalk width in our analysis. This research will be valuable in city governments' decision making with planning guidelines and political protocols for making safer pedestrian environment.

Safety and pharmacokinetic profile of rufinamide in pediatric patients aged less than 4 years with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome: An interim analysis from a multicenter, randomized, active-controlled, open-label study.

PubMed

Arzimanoglou, Alexis; Ferreira, Jose A; Satlin, Andrew; Mendes, Shannon; Williams, Betsy; Critchley, David; Schuck, Edgar; Hussein, Ziad; Kumar, Dinesh; Dhadda, Shobha; Bibbiani, Francesco

2016-05-01

A good knowledge of safety and age group-specific pharmacokinetics (PK) of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) in young pediatric patients is of great importance in clinical practice. This paper presents 6-month interim safety and PK from an ongoing 2-year open-label study (Study 303) of adjunctive rufinamide treatment in pediatric subjects ≥ 1 to < 4 years with inadequately controlled epilepsies of the Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS) spectrum. Subjects (N = 37) were randomized to either rufinamide or any other approved AED chosen by the investigator as adjunctive therapy to the subject's existing regimen of 1-3 AEDs. Interim safety results showed that treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were similar between the rufinamide (22 [88.0%]) and any-other-AED group (9 [81.8%]), with most events considered mild or moderate. A population PK analysis was conducted including plasma rufinamide concentrations from Study 303 and two other study populations of LGS subjects ≥ 4 years. The rufinamide PK profile was dose independent. The apparent clearance (CL/F) estimated from the PK model was 2.19 L/h; it was found to increase significantly as a function of body weight. Coadministration of valproic acid significantly decreased rufinamide CL/F. CL/F was not significantly affected by other concomitant AEDs, age, gender, race, hepatic function, or renal function. No adjustments to body weight-based rufinamide dosing in subjects ≥ 1 to < 4 years are necessary. Rufinamide was safe and well tolerated in these pediatric subjects. Results from the interim analysis demonstrate that rufinamide's safety and PK profile is comparable in subjects ≥ 1 to < 4 and ≥ 4 years with LGS. Study 303 (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01405053). Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

14 CFR 415.115 - Flight safety.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Flight safety. 415.115 Section 415.115... From a Non-Federal Launch Site § 415.115 Flight safety. (a) Flight safety analysis. An applicant's safety review document must describe each analysis method employed to meet the flight safety analysis...

14 CFR 415.115 - Flight safety.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Flight safety. 415.115 Section 415.115... From a Non-Federal Launch Site § 415.115 Flight safety. (a) Flight safety analysis. An applicant's safety review document must describe each analysis method employed to meet the flight safety analysis...

14 CFR 415.115 - Flight safety.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Flight safety. 415.115 Section 415.115... From a Non-Federal Launch Site § 415.115 Flight safety. (a) Flight safety analysis. An applicant's safety review document must describe each analysis method employed to meet the flight safety analysis...

14 CFR 415.115 - Flight safety.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Flight safety. 415.115 Section 415.115... From a Non-Federal Launch Site § 415.115 Flight safety. (a) Flight safety analysis. An applicant's safety review document must describe each analysis method employed to meet the flight safety analysis...

14 CFR 415.115 - Flight safety.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Flight safety. 415.115 Section 415.115... From a Non-Federal Launch Site § 415.115 Flight safety. (a) Flight safety analysis. An applicant's safety review document must describe each analysis method employed to meet the flight safety analysis...

The impact of different strategies to handle missing data on both precision and bias in a drug safety study: a multidatabase multinational population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Martín-Merino, Elisa; Calderón-Larrañaga, Amaia; Hawley, Samuel; Poblador-Plou, Beatriz; Llorente-García, Ana; Petersen, Irene; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel

2018-01-01

Background Missing data are often an issue in electronic medical records (EMRs) research. However, there are many ways that people deal with missing data in drug safety studies. Aim To compare the risk estimates resulting from different strategies for the handling of missing data in the study of venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk associated with antiosteoporotic medications (AOM). Methods New users of AOM (alendronic acid, other bisphosphonates, strontium ranelate, selective estrogen receptor modulators, teriparatide, or denosumab) aged ≥50 years during 1998–2014 were identified in two Spanish (the Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria [BIFAP] and EpiChron cohort) and one UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD]) EMR. Hazard ratios (HRs) according to AOM (with alendronic acid as reference) were calculated adjusting for VTE risk factors, body mass index (that was missing in 61% of patients included in the three databases), and smoking (that was missing in 23% of patients) in the year of AOM therapy initiation. HRs and standard errors obtained using cross-sectional multiple imputation (MI) (reference method) were compared to complete case (CC) analysis – using only patients with complete data – and longitudinal MI – adding to the cross-sectional MI model the body mass index/smoking values as recorded in the year before and after therapy initiation. Results Overall, 422/95,057 (0.4%), 19/12,688 (0.1%), and 2,051/161,202 (1.3%) VTE cases/participants were seen in BIFAP, EpiChron, and CPRD, respectively. HRs moved from 100.00% underestimation to 40.31% overestimation in CC compared with cross-sectional MI, while longitudinal MI methods provided similar risk estimates compared with cross-sectional MI. Precision for HR improved in cross-sectional MI versus CC by up to 160.28%, while longitudinal MI improved precision (compared with cross-sectional) only minimally (up to 0.80%). Conclusion CC may substantially affect relative risk estimation in EMR-based drug safety studies, since missing data are not often completely at random. Little improvement was seen in these data in terms of power with the inclusion of longitudinal MI compared with cross-sectional MI. The strategy for handling missing data in drug safety studies can have a large impact on both risk estimates and precision.

The impact of different strategies to handle missing data on both precision and bias in a drug safety study: a multidatabase multinational population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Martín-Merino, Elisa; Calderón-Larrañaga, Amaia; Hawley, Samuel; Poblador-Plou, Beatriz; Llorente-García, Ana; Petersen, Irene; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel

2018-01-01

Missing data are often an issue in electronic medical records (EMRs) research. However, there are many ways that people deal with missing data in drug safety studies. To compare the risk estimates resulting from different strategies for the handling of missing data in the study of venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk associated with antiosteoporotic medications (AOM). New users of AOM (alendronic acid, other bisphosphonates, strontium ranelate, selective estrogen receptor modulators, teriparatide, or denosumab) aged ≥50 years during 1998-2014 were identified in two Spanish (the Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria [BIFAP] and EpiChron cohort) and one UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD]) EMR. Hazard ratios (HRs) according to AOM (with alendronic acid as reference) were calculated adjusting for VTE risk factors, body mass index (that was missing in 61% of patients included in the three databases), and smoking (that was missing in 23% of patients) in the year of AOM therapy initiation. HRs and standard errors obtained using cross-sectional multiple imputation (MI) (reference method) were compared to complete case (CC) analysis - using only patients with complete data - and longitudinal MI - adding to the cross-sectional MI model the body mass index/smoking values as recorded in the year before and after therapy initiation. Overall, 422/95,057 (0.4%), 19/12,688 (0.1%), and 2,051/161,202 (1.3%) VTE cases/participants were seen in BIFAP, EpiChron, and CPRD, respectively. HRs moved from 100.00% underestimation to 40.31% overestimation in CC compared with cross-sectional MI, while longitudinal MI methods provided similar risk estimates compared with cross-sectional MI. Precision for HR improved in cross-sectional MI versus CC by up to 160.28%, while longitudinal MI improved precision (compared with cross-sectional) only minimally (up to 0.80%). CC may substantially affect relative risk estimation in EMR-based drug safety studies, since missing data are not often completely at random. Little improvement was seen in these data in terms of power with the inclusion of longitudinal MI compared with cross-sectional MI. The strategy for handling missing data in drug safety studies can have a large impact on both risk estimates and precision.

Unintentional and undetermined firearm related deaths: a preventable death analysis for three safety devices

PubMed Central

Vernick, J; O'Brien, M; Hepburn, L; Johnson, S; Webster, D; Hargarten, S

2003-01-01

Objective: To determine the proportion of unintentional and undetermined firearm related deaths preventable by three safety devices: personalization devices, loaded chamber indicators (LCIs), and magazine safeties. A personalized gun will operate only for an authorized user, a LCI indicates when the gun contains ammunition, and a magazine safety prevents the gun from firing when the ammunition magazine is removed. Design: Information about all unintentional and undetermined firearm deaths from 1991–98 was obtained from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner for Maryland, and from the Wisconsin Firearm Injury Reporting System for Milwaukee. Data regarding the victim, shooter, weapon, and circumstances were abstracted. Coding rules to classify each death as preventable, possibly preventable, or not preventable by each of the three safety devices were also applied. Results: There were a total of 117 firearm related deaths in our sample, 95 (81%) involving handguns. Forty three deaths (37%) were classified as preventable by a personalized gun, 23 (20%) by a LCI, and five (4%) by a magazine safety. Overall, 52 deaths (44%) were preventable by at least one safety device. Deaths involving children 0–17 (relative risk (RR) 3.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1 to 5.1) and handguns (RR 8.1, 95% CI 1.2 to 53.5) were more likely to be preventable. Projecting the findings to the entire United States, an estimated 442 deaths might have been prevented in 2000 had all guns been equipped with these safety devices. Conclusion: Incorporating safety devices into firearms is an important injury intervention, with the potential to save hundreds of lives each year. PMID:14693889

Quantifying Safety Margin Using the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia

2015-04-26

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC), developed by Idaho National Laboratory as part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability Project, utilizes a probabilistic safety margin comparison between a load and capacity distribution, rather than a deterministic comparison between two values, as is usually done in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses. The goal is to determine the failure probability, or in other words, the probability of the system load equaling or exceeding the system capacity. While this method has been used in pilot studies, there has been little work conducted investigating the statistical significance of the resulting failure probability. In particular, it ismore » difficult to determine how many simulations are necessary to properly characterize the failure probability. This work uses classical (frequentist) statistics and confidence intervals to examine the impact in statistical accuracy when the number of simulations is varied. Two methods are proposed to establish confidence intervals related to the failure probability established using a RISMC analysis. The confidence interval provides information about the statistical accuracy of the method utilized to explore the uncertainty space, and offers a quantitative method to gauge the increase in statistical accuracy due to performing additional simulations.« less

New geometric design consistency model based on operating speed profiles for road safety evaluation.

PubMed

Camacho-Torregrosa, Francisco J; Pérez-Zuriaga, Ana M; Campoy-Ungría, J Manuel; García-García, Alfredo

2013-12-01

To assist in the on-going effort to reduce road fatalities as much as possible, this paper presents a new methodology to evaluate road safety in both the design and redesign stages of two-lane rural highways. This methodology is based on the analysis of road geometric design consistency, a value which will be a surrogate measure of the safety level of the two-lane rural road segment. The consistency model presented in this paper is based on the consideration of continuous operating speed profiles. The models used for their construction were obtained by using an innovative GPS-data collection method that is based on continuous operating speed profiles recorded from individual drivers. This new methodology allowed the researchers to observe the actual behavior of drivers and to develop more accurate operating speed models than was previously possible with spot-speed data collection, thereby enabling a more accurate approximation to the real phenomenon and thus a better consistency measurement. Operating speed profiles were built for 33 Spanish two-lane rural road segments, and several consistency measurements based on the global and local operating speed were checked. The final consistency model takes into account not only the global dispersion of the operating speed, but also some indexes that consider both local speed decelerations and speeds over posted speeds as well. For the development of the consistency model, the crash frequency for each study site was considered, which allowed estimating the number of crashes on a road segment by means of the calculation of its geometric design consistency. Consequently, the presented consistency evaluation method is a promising innovative tool that can be used as a surrogate measure to estimate the safety of a road segment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Strain-Based Method to Detect Tires' Loss of Grip and Estimate Lateral Friction Coefficient from Experimental Data by Fuzzy Logic for Intelligent Tire Development.

PubMed

Yunta, Jorge; Garcia-Pozuelo, Daniel; Diaz, Vicente; Olatunbosun, Oluremi

2018-02-06

Tires are a key sub-system of vehicles that have a big responsibility for comfort, fuel consumption and traffic safety. However, current tires are just passive rubber elements which do not contribute actively to improve the driving experience or vehicle safety. The lack of information from the tire during driving gives cause for developing an intelligent tire. Therefore, the aim of the intelligent tire is to monitor tire working conditions in real-time, providing useful information to other systems and becoming an active system. In this paper, tire tread deformation is measured to provide a strong experimental base with different experiments and test results by means of a tire fitted with sensors. Tests under different working conditions such as vertical load or slip angle have been carried out with an indoor tire test rig. The experimental data analysis shows the strong relation that exists between lateral force and the maximum tensile and compressive strain peaks when the tire is not working at the limit of grip. In the last section, an estimation system from experimental data has been developed and implemented in Simulink to show the potential of strain sensors for developing intelligent tire systems, obtaining as major results a signal to detect tire's loss of grip and estimations of the lateral friction coefficient.

Assessment of Instructions on Protection Against Food Contaminated with Radiocesium in Japan in 2011.

PubMed

Seto, Mayumi; Uriu, Koichiro; Kawaguchi, Isao; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki

2018-06-01

The Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) has published instructions for radiological protection against food after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011. Following the instructions, the export and consumption of food items identified as being contaminated were restricted for a certain period. We assessed the validity of the imposed restriction periods for two representative vegetables (spinach and cabbage) grown in Fukushima Prefecture from two perspectives: effectiveness for reducing dietary dose and economic efficiency. To assess effectiveness, we estimated the restriction period required to maintain consumers' dose below the guidance dose levels. To assess economic efficiency, we estimated the restriction period that maximizes the net benefit to taxpayers. All estimated restriction periods were shorter than the actual restriction periods imposed on spinach and cabbage from Fukushima in 2011, which indicates that the food restriction effectively maintained consumers' dietary dose below the guidance dose level, but in an economically inefficient manner. We also evaluated the response of the restriction period to the sample size for each weekly food safety test and the instructions for when to remove the restriction. Stringent MHLW instructions seemed to sufficiently reduce consumers' health risk even when the sample size for the weekly food safety test was small, but tended to increase the economic cost to taxpayers. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Strain-Based Method to Detect Tires’ Loss of Grip and Estimate Lateral Friction Coefficient from Experimental Data by Fuzzy Logic for Intelligent Tire Development

PubMed Central

Garcia-Pozuelo, Daniel; Diaz, Vicente; Olatunbosun, Oluremi

2018-01-01

Tires are a key sub-system of vehicles that have a big responsibility for comfort, fuel consumption and traffic safety. However, current tires are just passive rubber elements which do not contribute actively to improve the driving experience or vehicle safety. The lack of information from the tire during driving gives cause for developing an intelligent tire. Therefore, the aim of the intelligent tire is to monitor tire working conditions in real-time, providing useful information to other systems and becoming an active system. In this paper, tire tread deformation is measured to provide a strong experimental base with different experiments and test results by means of a tire fitted with sensors. Tests under different working conditions such as vertical load or slip angle have been carried out with an indoor tire test rig. The experimental data analysis shows the strong relation that exists between lateral force and the maximum tensile and compressive strain peaks when the tire is not working at the limit of grip. In the last section, an estimation system from experimental data has been developed and implemented in Simulink to show the potential of strain sensors for developing intelligent tire systems, obtaining as major results a signal to detect tire’s loss of grip and estimations of the lateral friction coefficient. PMID:29415513

An Index For Rating the Total Secondary Safety of Vehicles from Real World Crash Data

PubMed Central

Newstead, S.; Watson, L.; Cameron, M.

2007-01-01

This study proposes a total secondary safety index for light passenger vehicles that rates the relative performance of vehicles in protecting both their own occupants and other road users in the full range of real world crash circumstances. The index estimates the risk of death or serious injury to key road users in crashes involving light passenger vehicles across the full range of crash types. The proposed index has been estimated from real world crash data from Australasia and was able to identify vehicles that have superior or inferior total secondary safety characteristics compared with the average vehicle. PMID:18184497

Baseline Blood Pressure Effect on the Benefit and Safety of Intra-Arterial Treatment in MR CLEAN (Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands).

PubMed

Mulder, Maxim J H L; Ergezen, Saliha; Lingsma, Hester F; Berkhemer, Olvert A; Fransen, Puck S S; Beumer, Debbie; van den Berg, Lucie A; Lycklama À Nijeholt, Geert; Emmer, Bart J; van der Worp, H Bart; Nederkoorn, Paul J; Roos, Yvo B W E M; van Oostenbrugge, Robert J; van Zwam, Wim H; Majoie, Charles B L M; van der Lugt, Aad; Dippel, Diederik W J

2017-07-01

High blood pressure (BP) is associated with poor outcome and the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage in acute ischemic stroke. Whether BP influences the benefit or safety of intra-arterial treatment (IAT) is not known. We aimed to assess the relation of BP with functional outcome, occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and effect of IAT. This is a post hoc analysis of the MR CLEAN (Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands). BP was measured at baseline, before IAT or stroke unit admission. We estimated the association of baseline BP with the score on the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days and safety parameters with ordinal and logistic regression analysis. Effect of BP on the effect of IAT was tested with multiplicative interaction terms. Systolic BP (SBP) had the best correlation with functional outcome. This correlation was U-shaped; both low and high baseline SBP were associated with poor functional outcome. Higher SBP was associated with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio, 1.25 for every 10 mm Hg higher SBP [95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.44]). Between SBP and IAT, there was no interaction for functional outcome, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, or other safety parameters; the absolute benefit of IAT was evident for the whole SBP range. The same was found for diastolic BP. BP does not affect the benefit or safety of IAT in patients with acute ischemic stroke caused by proximal intracranial vessel occlusion. Our data provide no arguments to withhold or delay IAT based on BP. URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN10888758. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Racial differences in adherence and response to combined treatment for full and subthreshold post-traumatic stress disorder and alcohol use disorders: A secondary analysis.

PubMed

Ruglass, Lesia M; Pedersen, Annelisa; Cheref, Soumia; Hu, Mei-Chen; Hien, Denise A

2016-01-01

We conducted a secondary data analysis to examine whether there were racial differences in adherence and treatment outcomes for participants with co-occurring full and subthreshold post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and alcohol/substance use disorders (A/SUD) who were treated with Seeking Safety (a cognitive-behavioral therapy) and sertraline or Seeking Safety and placebo as part of a clinical trial. Bivarate analyses examined the association between race and adherence, and generalized estimating equations assessed whether race moderated the effect of combination treatment on PTSD and alcohol use outcomes. Except for education, there were no statistically significant racial differences in baseline demographic and psychiatric characteristics. African Americans and Caucasians were equally adherent in number of psychotherapy and medication sessions attended and medication compliance. After controlling for baseline demographics and psychiatric symptoms, however, a race by treatment condition interaction emerged suggesting that African Americans who received the Seeking Safety and sertraline treatment had significantly lower PTSD symptom severity posttreatment and at six months follow-up compared to their counterparts who received Seeking Safety and placebo. No differential effect of treatment condition was found for Caucasians. Moreover, results indicated that a diagnosis of major depressive disorder negatively impacted PTSD symptom recovery for African American participants but not for Caucasians. In conclusion, no differences emerged between African Americans and Caucasians in adherence to combination treatments for PTSD and A/SUD. Findings also suggest assessment and treatment of MDD among African Americans may improve treatment outcomes. More research is needed to determine whether the differential response to Seeking Safety and sertraline among African Americans compared to Caucasians can be replicated.

Statistical Analysis on the Mechanical Properties of Magnesium Alloys

PubMed Central

Liu, Ruoyu; Jiang, Xianquan; Zhang, Hongju; Zhang, Dingfei; Wang, Jingfeng; Pan, Fusheng

2017-01-01

Knowledge of statistical characteristics of mechanical properties is very important for the practical application of structural materials. Unfortunately, the scatter characteristics of magnesium alloys for mechanical performance remain poorly understood until now. In this study, the mechanical reliability of magnesium alloys is systematically estimated using Weibull statistical analysis. Interestingly, the Weibull modulus, m, of strength for magnesium alloys is as high as that for aluminum and steels, confirming the very high reliability of magnesium alloys. The high predictability in the tensile strength of magnesium alloys represents the capability of preventing catastrophic premature failure during service, which is essential for safety and reliability assessment. PMID:29113116

Model 0A wind turbine generator FMEA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, William E.; Lalli, Vincent R.

1989-01-01

The results of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) conducted for the Wind Turbine Generators are presented. The FMEA was performed for the functional modes of each system, subsystem, or component. The single-point failures were eliminated for most of the systems. The blade system was the only exception. The qualitative probability of a blade separating was estimated at level D-remote. Many changes were made to the hardware as a result of this analysis. The most significant change was the addition of the safety system. Operational experience and need to improve machine availability have resulted in subsequent changes to the various systems which are also reflected in this FMEA.

Space Construction Experiment Definition Study (SCEDS), part 2. Volume 2: Study results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The Space Construction Experiment (SCE) was defined for integration into the Space Shuttle. This included development of flight assignment data, revision and update of preliminary mission timelines and test plans, analysis of flight safety issues, and definition of ground operations scenarios. New requirements for the flight experiment and changes for a large space antenna feed mask test article were incorporated. The program plan and cost estimates were updated. Revised SCE structural dynamics characteristics were provided for simulation and analysis of experimental tests to define and verify control limits and interactions effects between the SCE and the Orbiter digital automatic pilot.

The efficacy and safety of probiotics for prevention of chemoradiotherapy-induced diarrhea in people with abdominal and pelvic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Y-H; Yao, N; Wei, K-K; Jiang, L; Hanif, S; Wang, Z-X; Pei, C-X

2016-11-01

A systematic review and meta-analysis were designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of probiotics for prevention of chemoradiotherapy-induced diarrhea in people with abdominal and pelvic cancer. We searched the Cochrane Library, PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science up to November 2015. We also hand searched the citation lists of included studies and previously identified systematic reviews to identify further relevant trials. Odds ratio (OR) was used to compare efficacy, and the pooled OR was estimated using a random effects model; heterogeneity was assessed with Cochran's Q and the Higgins' I 2 -test. Two reviewers assessed trial quality and extracted data independently. Analysis and bias for each included study were performed using Review Manager 5.2. Nine randomized and placebo-controlled studies (N=1265 participants) were included for assessing efficacy, of which seven were about radiotherapy and two about chemotherapy. Probiotic groups were compared with control groups with respect to the the incidence of diarrhea, OR=0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.28-0.76; P=0.002). Eleven studies, including 1612 people (873 consuming probiotics and 739 not consuming probiotics), were used for the analysis of safety of probiotics. Of the 11 studies, seven studies had no adverse events (AEs) caused by probiotics, whereas four studies reported varying degrees of AEs in their treatment. Probiotics may have a beneficial effect in prevention of chemoradiotherapy-induced diarrhea generally, especially for Grade⩾2 diarrhea. Probiotics may rarely cause AEs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Chanyoung; Kim, Nam H.

Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope usingmore » Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.« less

Estimating Adolescent Risk for Hearing Loss Based on Data From a Large School-Based Survey

PubMed Central

Verschuure, Hans; van der Ploeg, Catharina P. B.; Brug, Johannes; Raat, Hein

2010-01-01

Objectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512 adolescents (aged 12–19 years) in Dutch secondary schools completed questionnaires about their music-listening behavior and whether they experienced hearing-related symptoms after listening to high-volume music. We used their self-reported data in conjunction with published average sound levels of music players, discotheques, and pop concerts to estimate their noise exposure, and we compared that exposure to our own “loosened” (i.e., less strict) version of current European safety standards for occupational noise exposure. Results. About half of the adolescents exceeded safety standards for occupational noise exposure. About one third of the respondents exceeded safety standards solely as a result of listening to MP3 players. Hearing symptoms that occurred after using an MP3 player or going to a discotheque were associated with exposure to high-volume music. Conclusions. Adolescents often exceeded current occupational safety standards for noise exposure, highlighting the need for specific safety standards for leisure-time noise exposure. PMID:20395587

Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Adjuvant Letrozole Versus Anastrozole in Postmenopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive, Node-Positive Early Breast Cancer: Final Results of the Randomized Phase III Femara Versus Anastrozole Clinical Evaluation (FACE) Trial.

PubMed

Smith, Ian; Yardley, Denise; Burris, Howard; De Boer, Richard; Amadori, Dino; McIntyre, Kristi; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gnant, Michael; Jonat, Walter; Pritchard, Kathleen I; Dowsett, Mitch; Hart, Lowell; Poggio, Susan; Comarella, Lisa; Salomon, Herve; Wamil, Barbara; O'Shaughnessy, Joyce

2017-04-01

Purpose The Letrozole (Femara) Versus Anastrozole Clinical Evaluation (FACE) study compared the efficacy and safety of adjuvant letrozole versus anastrozole in postmenopausal patients with hormone receptor (HR) -positive and node-positive early breast cancer (eBC). Methods Postmenopausal women with HR-positive and node-positive eBC were randomly assigned to receive adjuvant therapy with either letrozole (2.5 mg) or anastrozole (1 mg) once per day for 5 years or until recurrence of disease. Patients were stratified on the basis of the number of lymph nodes and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status. The primary end point was 5-year disease-free survival (DFS), and the key secondary end points were overall survival and safety. Results A total of 4,136 patients were randomly assigned to receive either letrozole (n = 2,061) or anastrozole (n = 2,075). The final analysis was done at 709 DFS events (letrozole, 341 [16.5%]; anastrozole, 368 [17.7%]). The 5-year estimated DFS rate was 84.9% for letrozole versus 82.9% for anastrozole arm (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.80 to 1.07; P = .3150). Exploratory analysis showed similar DFS with letrozole and anastrozole in all evaluated subgroups. The 5-year estimated overall survival rate was 89.9% for letrozole versus 89.2% for anastrozole arm (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.17; P = .7916). Most common grade 3 to 4 adverse events (> 5% of patients) reported for letrozole versus anastrozole were arthralgia (3.9% v 3.3%, and 48.2% v 47.9% for all adverse events), hypertension (1.2% v 1.0%), hot flushes (0.8% v 0.4%), myalgia (0.8% v 0.7%), dyspnea (0.8% v 0.5%), and depression (0.8% v 0.6%). Conclusion Letrozole did not demonstrate significantly superior efficacy or safety compared with anastrozole in postmenopausal patients with HR-positive, node-positive eBC.

Development of cost estimation tools for total occupational safety and health activities and occupational health services: cost estimation from a corporate perspective.

PubMed

Nagata, Tomohisa; Mori, Koji; Aratake, Yutaka; Ide, Hiroshi; Ishida, Hiromi; Nobori, Junichiro; Kojima, Reiko; Odagami, Kiminori; Kato, Anna; Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Matsuda, Shinya

2014-01-01

The aim of the present study was to develop standardized cost estimation tools that provide information to employers about occupational safety and health (OSH) activities for effective and efficient decision making in Japanese companies. We interviewed OSH staff members including full-time professional occupational physicians to list all OSH activities. Using activity-based costing, cost data were obtained from retrospective analyses of occupational safety and health costs over a 1-year period in three manufacturing workplaces and were obtained from retrospective analyses of occupational health services costs in four manufacturing workplaces. We verified the tools additionally in four workplaces including service businesses. We created the OSH and occupational health standardized cost estimation tools. OSH costs consisted of personnel costs, expenses, outsourcing costs and investments for 15 OSH activities. The tools provided accurate, relevant information on OSH activities and occupational health services. The standardized information obtained from our OSH and occupational health cost estimation tools can be used to manage OSH costs, make comparisons of OSH costs between companies and organizations and help occupational health physicians and employers to determine the best course of action.

Ranking of sabotage/tampering avoidance technology alternatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, W.B.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Powers, T.B.

1986-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted a study to evaluate alternatives to the design and operation of nuclear power plants, emphasizing a reduction of their vulnerability to sabotage. Estimates of core melt accident frequency during normal operations and from sabotage/tampering events were used to rank the alternatives. Core melt frequency for normal operations was estimated using sensitivity analysis of results of probabilistic risk assessments. Core melt frequency for sabotage/tampering was estimated by developing a model based on probabilistic risk analyses, historic data, engineering judgment, and safeguards analyses of plant locations where core melt events could be initiated. Results indicate the most effectivemore » alternatives focus on large areas of the plant, increase safety system redundancy, and reduce reliance on single locations for mitigation of transients. Less effective options focus on specific areas of the plant, reduce reliance on some plant areas for safe shutdown, and focus on less vulnerable targets.« less

Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

2014-02-01

The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

14 CFR 417.221 - Time delay analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.221 Time delay analysis. (a) General. A flight safety analysis must include a time delay analysis that establishes the mean elapsed time between the violation of a flight termination rule and the time when the flight safety system is...

14 CFR 417.221 - Time delay analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.221 Time delay analysis. (a) General. A flight safety analysis must include a time delay analysis that establishes the mean elapsed time between the violation of a flight termination rule and the time when the flight safety system is...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Veeramany, Arun

This research report summaries the development and evaluation of a prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology (framework) that includes alternative risk metrics and uncertainty analysis. This updated ERM methodology accounts for uncertainty in the equipment condition assessment (ECA), the prognostic result, and the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. It is anticipated that the ability to characterize uncertainty in the estimated risk and update the risk estimates in real time based on equipment condition assessment (ECA) will provide a mechanism for optimizing plant performance while staying within specified safety margins. These results (based on impacting active component O&M using real-time equipmentmore » condition information) are a step towards ERMs that, if integrated with AR supervisory plant control systems, can help control O&M costs and improve affordability of advanced reactors.« less

Methods for estimating the labour force insured by the Ontario Workplace Safety and Insurance Board: 1990-2000.

PubMed

Smith, Peter M; Mustard, Cameron A; Payne, Jennifer I

2004-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for estimating the size and composition of the Ontario labour force eligible for coverage under the Ontario Workplace Safety & Insurance Act (WSIA). Using customized tabulations from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (LFS), we made adjustments for self-employment, unemployment, part-time employment and employment in specific industrial sectors excluded from insurance coverage under the WSIA. Each adjustment to the LFS reduced the estimates of the insured labour force relative to the total Ontario labour force. These estimates were then developed for major occupational and industrial groups stratified by gender. Additional estimates created to test assumptions used in the methodology produced similar results. The methods described in this paper advance those previously used to estimate the insured labour force, providing researchers with a useful tool to describe trends in the rate of injury across differing occupational, industrial and gender groups in Ontario.

77 FR 26045 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comments Requested: Certification...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-02

... Secure Gun Storage or Safety Devices ACTION: 30-Day Notice of information collection. The Department of... approved collection. (2) Title of the Form/Collection: Certification of Secure Gun Storage or Safety... to the availability of secure gun storage or safety devices. (5) An estimate of the total number of...

77 FR 10559 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed collection; comments requested: Certification...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-22

... Secure Gun Storage or Safety Devices ACTION: 60-Day notice of information collection. The Department of...) Title of the Form/Collection: Certification of Secure Gun Storage or Safety Devices. (3) Agency form... gun storage or safety devices. (5) An estimate of the total number of respondents and the amount of...

75 FR 22806 - Agency Information Collection Request; 60-Day Public Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-30

... Safety and Availability. Abstract: The NBCUS is a biennial survey of the blood collection and utilization... safety of all blood products. The objective of the NBCUS is to produce reliable and accurate estimates of national and regional collections, utilization, and safety of all blood products--red blood cells, fresh...

Safety Specialist Manpower, Manpower Resources. Volumes II and III.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Booz Allen and Hamilton, Inc., Washington, DC.

These second and third volumes of a four-volume study of manpower in state highway safety programs over the next decade estimate manpower resources by state and in national aggregate and describe present and planned training programs for safety specialists. For each educational level, both total manpower and manpower actually available for…

Measuring Safety Performance: A Comparison of Whole, Partial, and Momentary Time-Sampling Recording Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alvero, Alicia M.; Struss, Kristen; Rappaport, Eva

2008-01-01

Partial-interval (PIR), whole-interval (WIR), and momentary time sampling (MTS) estimates were compared against continuous measures of safety performance for three postural behaviors: feet, back, and shoulder position. Twenty-five samples of safety performance across five undergraduate students were scored using a second-by-second continuous…

Transportation systems safety hazard analysis tool (SafetyHAT) user guide (version 1.0)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-24

This is a user guide for the transportation system Safety Hazard Analysis Tool (SafetyHAT) Version 1.0. SafetyHAT is a software tool that facilitates System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA.) This user guide provides instructions on how to download, ...

10 CFR 830.206 - Preliminary documented safety analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Preliminary documented safety analysis. 830.206 Section 830.206 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY NUCLEAR SAFETY MANAGEMENT Safety Basis Requirements § 830.206 Preliminary documented safety analysis. If construction begins after December 11, 2000, the contractor...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shehabi, Arman; Ganeshalingam, Mohan; DeMates, Lauren

Laboratories are estimated to be 3-5 times more energy intensive than typical office buildings and offer significant opportunities for energy use reductions. Although energy intensity varies widely, laboratories are generally energy intensive due to ventilation requirements, the research instruments used, and other health and safety concerns. Because the requirements of laboratory facilities differ so dramatically from those of other buildings, a clear need exists for an initiative exclusively targeting these facilities. The building stock of laboratories in the United States span different economic sectors, include governmental and academic institution, and are often defined differently by different groups. Information on laboratorymore » buildings is often limited to a small subsection of the total building stock making aggregate estimates of the total U.S. laboratories and their energy use challenging. Previous estimates of U.S. laboratory space vary widely owing to differences in how laboratories are defined and categorized. A 2006 report on fume hoods provided an estimate of 150,000 laboratories populating the U.S. based in part on interviews of industry experts, however, a 2009 analysis of the 2003 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) generated an estimate of only 9,000 laboratory buildings. This report draws on multiple data sources that have been evaluated to construct an understanding of U.S. laboratories across different sizes and markets segments. This 2016 analysis is an update to draft reports released in October and December 2016.« less

Semi-Markov Approach to the Shipping Safety Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guze, Sambor; Smolarek, Leszek

2012-02-01

In the paper the navigational safety model of a ship on the open area has been studied under conditions of incomplete information. Moreover the structure of semi-Markov processes is used to analyse the stochastic ship safety according to the subjective acceptance of risk by the navigator. In addition, the navigator’s behaviour can be analysed by using the numerical simulation to estimate the probability of collision in the safety model.

Safety analytics for integrating crash frequency and real-time risk modeling for expressways.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2017-07-01

To find crash contributing factors, there have been numerous crash frequency and real-time safety studies, but such studies have been conducted independently. Until this point, no researcher has simultaneously analyzed crash frequency and real-time crash risk to test whether integrating them could better explain crash occurrence. Therefore, this study aims at integrating crash frequency and real-time safety analyses using expressway data. A Bayesian integrated model and a non-integrated model were built: the integrated model linked the crash frequency and the real-time models by adding the logarithm of the estimated expected crash frequency in the real-time model; the non-integrated model independently estimated the crash frequency and the real-time crash risk. The results showed that the integrated model outperformed the non-integrated model, as it provided much better model results for both the crash frequency and the real-time models. This result indicated that the added component, the logarithm of the expected crash frequency, successfully linked and provided useful information to the two models. This study uncovered few variables that are not typically included in the crash frequency analysis. For example, the average daily standard deviation of speed, which was aggregated based on speed at 1-min intervals, had a positive effect on crash frequency. In conclusion, this study suggested a methodology to improve the crash frequency and real-time models by integrating them, and it might inspire future researchers to understand crash mechanisms better. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety analysis of the new synchronized and milwaukee B interchanges in comparison to existing designs.

PubMed

Molan, Amirarsalan Mehrara; Hummer, Joseph E

2017-12-01

Interchanges have high crash rates and large impacts on traffic operations. The main objective of this research is to analyze the safety performance of two new interchanges, the synchronized interchange and the Milwaukee B interchange. The primary method of study was microscopic simulation modeling using the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM) program to estimate the quantity and type of conflicting interactions in each interchange. A comprehensive series of simulation scenarios were considered to include different conditions of traffic volumes, traffic turning ratios, traffic distribution, and heavy vehicles percentages. Afterward, outcomes were analyzed with two-way Analyses of Variance (ANOVAs) to compare the mean values of conflicts. Based on the results, the diverging diamond interchange (DDI) and Milwaukee B were the safest designs regarding observed conflicting interactions in the simulation models; however, the DDI did not seem as reliable from the viewpoint of wrong way movements. The new synchronized interchange, the parclo B, and the Milwaukee A (an existing interchange in Milwaukee, WI) showed the same rate of conflicts. The synchronized interchange may be advantageous because it was estimated to reduce the severity of crashes due to fewer crossing conflicts, a lower speed of conflicts, and a higher time to collision. The conventional diamond was the most dangerous design based on our measures. The DDI and the synchronized interchange look like plausible substitutes for reconstructing an unsafe diamond interchange due to the similarities in their required space. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Depression, antidepressants and driving safety.

PubMed

Hill, Linda L; Lauzon, Vanessa L; Winbrock, Elise L; Li, Guohua; Chihuri, Stanford; Lee, Kelly C

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to review to review the reported associations of depression and antidepressants with motor vehicle crashes. A literature search for material published in the English language between January, 1995, and October, 2015, in bibliographic databases was combined with a search for other relevant material referenced in the retrieved articles. Retrieved articles were systematically reviewed for inclusion criteria: 19 epidemiological studies (17 case-control and 2 cohort studies) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by estimating the crash risk associated with depression and/or psychotropic medications in naturalistic settings. The estimates of the odds ratio (OR) of crash involvement associated with depression ranged from 1.78 to 3.99. All classes of antidepressants were reported to have side effects with the potential to affect driving safety. The majority of studies of antidepressant effects on driving reported an elevated crash risk, and ORs ranged from 1.19 to 2.03 for all crashes, and 3.19 for fatal crashes. In meta-analysis, depression was associated with approximately 2-fold increased crash risk (summary OR = 1.90; 95% CI, 1.06 to 3.39), and antidepressants were associated with approximately 40% increased crash risk (summary OR = 1.40; 95%CI, 1.18 to 1.66). Based on the findings of the studies reviewed, depression, antidepressants or the combination of depression and antidepressants may pose a potential hazard to driving safety. More research is needed to understand the individual contributions of depression and the medications used to treat depression.

Update and enhancement of ODOT's crash reduction factors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-01

Appropriate selection of cost-effective countermeasures for highway safety improvement projects requires an : estimate of the safety effects of alternative designs. The Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), like many : agencies, makes these est...

Model-Based Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Anjali; Heimdahl, Mats P. E.; Miller, Steven P.; Whalen, Mike W.

2006-01-01

System safety analysis techniques are well established and are used extensively during the design of safety-critical systems. Despite this, most of the techniques are highly subjective and dependent on the skill of the practitioner. Since these analyses are usually based on an informal system model, it is unlikely that they will be complete, consistent, and error free. In fact, the lack of precise models of the system architecture and its failure modes often forces the safety analysts to devote much of their effort to gathering architectural details about the system behavior from several sources and embedding this information in the safety artifacts such as the fault trees. This report describes Model-Based Safety Analysis, an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. By extending the system model with a fault model as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support can be provided for much of the safety analysis. We believe that by using a common model for both system and safety engineering and automating parts of the safety analysis, we can both reduce the cost and improve the quality of the safety analysis. Here we present our vision of model-based safety analysis and discuss the advantages and challenges in making this approach practical.

Technical/commercial feasibility study of the production of fuel-grade ethanol from corn: 100-million-gallon-per-year production facility in Myrtle Grove, Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-05-01

The technical and economic feasibility of producing motor fuel alcohol from corn in a 100 million gallon per year plant to be constructed in Myrtle Grove, Louisiana is evaluated. The evaluation includes a detailed process design using proven technology, a capital cost estimate for the plant, a detailed analysis of the annual operating cost, a market study, a socioeconomic, environmental, health and safety analysis, and a complete financial analysis. Several other considerations for production of ethanol were evaluated including: cogeneration and fuel to be used in firing the boilers; single by-products vs. multiple by-products; and use of boiler flue gas for by-product drying.

Eigenvalue Contributon Estimator for Sensitivity Calculations with TSUNAMI-3D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Williams, Mark L

2007-01-01

Since the release of the Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) codes in SCALE [1], the use of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques for criticality safety applications has greatly increased within the user community. In general, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is transitioning from a technique used only by specialists to a practical tool in routine use. With the desire to use the tool more routinely comes the need to improve the solution methodology to reduce the input and computational burden on the user. This paper reviews the current solution methodology of the Monte Carlo eigenvalue sensitivity analysismore » sequence TSUNAMI-3D, describes an alternative approach, and presents results from both methodologies.« less

The new car assessment program: does it predict the relative safety of vehicles in actual crashes?

PubMed

Nirula, Ram; Mock, Charles N; Nathens, Avery B; Grossman, David C

2004-10-01

Federal motor vehicle safety standards are based on crash test dummy analyses that estimate the relative risk of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and severe thoracic injury (STI) by quantifying head (Head Injury Criterion [HIC]) and chest (Chest Gravity Score [CGS]) acceleration. The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) combines these probabilities to yield the vehicle's five-star rating. The validity of the NCAP system as it relates to an actual motor vehicle crash (MVC) remains undetermined. We therefore sought to determine whether HIC and CGS accurately predict TBI and STI in actual crashes, and compared the NCAP five-star rating system to the rates of TBI and/or STI in actual MVCs. We analyzed frontal crashes with restrained drivers from the 1994 to 1998 National Automotive Sampling System. The relationship of HIC and CGS to the probabilities of TBI and STI derived from crash tests were respectively compared with the HIC-TBI and CGS-STI risk relationships observed in actual crashes while controlling for covariates. Receiver operating characteristic curves determined the sensitivity and specificity of HIC and CGS as predictors of TBI and STI, respectively. Estimates of the likelihood of TBI and/or STI (in actual MVCs) were compared with the expected probabilities of TBI and STI (determined by crash test analysis), as they relate to NCAP ratings. The crash tests overestimate TBI likelihood at HIC scores >800 and underestimate it at scores <500. STI likelihood is overestimated when CGS exceeds 40 g. Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated poor sensitivity and specificity of HIC and CGS in predicting injury. The actual MVC injury probability estimates did not vary between vehicles of different NCAP rating. HIC and CGS are poor predictors of TBI and STI in actual MVCs. The NCAP five-star rating system is unable to differentiate vehicles of varying crashworthiness in actual MVCs. More sensitive parameters need to be developed and incorporated into vehicle crash safety testing to provide consumers and automotive manufacturers with useful tools with which to measure vehicle safety.

Factors influencing Australian agricultural workers' self-efficacy using chemicals in the workplace.

PubMed

Blackman, Ian R

2012-11-01

A hypothetical model was formulated to explore which factors can simultaneously influence the self-reported ability of agricultural employees to embrace chemical safety practices. Eight variables were considered in the study, including the employees' gender, age, duration of current employment status, and whether they were employed full-time or part-time. The self-efficacy measures of 169 participants were then estimated by measuring their self-rated ability to understand and perform different chemical safety practices. Models identifying employee self-efficacy pathways leading to worker readiness to engage in chemical safety were then tested using Partial Least Squares Path Analysis. Study results suggest that employees' self-efficacy to successfully engage in safe chemical practices in their workplace can be directly predicted by four variables, with additional indirect effects offered by one other variable, which cumulatively account for 41% of the variance of employees' chemical safety self-efficacy scores. The most significant predictor variables that directly influenced employees' self-efficacy in adopting chemical safety practices in the workplace were worker age, gender, years of employment, and concurrent confidence (self-efficacy) arising from prior experience using chemicals in the workplace. The variables of employees' prior knowledge and understanding about the use of administrative controls and personal protective equipment to protect workers from chemical exposure had no direct influence on self-efficacy to handle chemical emergencies. Employees' unfamiliarity with risk control strategies and reliance on material safety data sheets for information suggest that ongoing and targeted training are necessary if chemical safety issues are to be addressed.

A market systems analysis of the U.S. Sport Utility Vehicle market considering frontal crash safety technology and policy.

PubMed

Hoffenson, Steven; Frischknecht, Bart D; Papalambros, Panos Y

2013-01-01

Active safety features and adjustments to the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) consumer-information crash tests have the potential to decrease the number of serious traffic injuries each year, according to previous studies. However, literature suggests that risk reductions, particularly in the automotive market, are often accompanied by adjusted consumer risk tolerance, and so these potential safety benefits may not be fully realized due to changes in consumer purchasing or driving behavior. This article approaches safety in the new vehicle market, particularly in the Sport Utility Vehicle and Crossover Utility Vehicle segments, from a market systems perspective. Crash statistics and simulations are used to predict the effects of design and policy changes on occupant crash safety, and discrete choice experiments are conducted to estimate the values consumers place on vehicle attributes. These models are combined in a market simulation that forecasts how consumers respond to the available vehicle alternatives, resulting in predictions of the market share of each vehicle and how the change in fleet mixture influences societal outcomes including injuries, fuel consumption, and firm profits. The model is tested for a scenario where active safety features are implemented across the new vehicle fleet and a scenario where the U.S. frontal NCAP test speed is modified. While results exhibit evidence of consumer risk adjustment, they support adding active safety features and lowering the NCAP frontal test speed, as these changes are predicted to improve the welfare of both firms and society. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spillway sizing of large dams in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reszler, Ch.; Gutknecht, D.; Blöschl, G.

2003-04-01

This paper discusses the basic philosophy of defining and calculating design floods for large dams in Austria, both for the construction of new dams and for a re-assessment of the safety of existing dams. Currently the consensus is to choose flood peak values corresponding to a probability of exceedance of 2*10-4 for a given year. A two step procedure is proposed to estimate the design flood discharges - a rapid assessment and a detailed assessment. In the rapid assessment the design discharge is chosen as a constant multiple of flood values read from a map of regionalised floods. The safety factor or multiplier takes care of the uncertainties of the local estimation and the regionalisation procedure. If the current design level of a spillway exceeds the value so estimated, no further calculations are needed. Otherwise (and for new dams) a detailed assessment is required. The idea of the detailed assessment is to draw upon all existing sources of information to constrain the uncertainties. The three main sources are local flood frequency analysis, where flood data are available; regional flood estimation from hydrologically similar catchments; and rainfall-runoff modelling using design storms as inputs. The three values obtained by these methods are then assessed and weighted in terms of their reliability to facilitate selection of the design flood. The uncertainty assessment of the various methods is based on confidence intervals, estimates of regional heterogeneity, data availability and sensitivity analyses of the rainfall-runoff model. As the definition of the design floods discussed above is based on probability concepts it is also important to examine the excess risk, i.e. the possibility of the occurrence of a flood exceeding the design levels. The excess risk is evaluated based on a so called Safety Check Flood (SCF), similar to the existing practice in other countries in Europe. The SCF is a vehicle to analyse the damage potential of an event of this magnitude. This is to provide guidance for protective measures to dealing with very extreme floods. The SCF is used to check the vulnerability of the system with regard to structural stability, morphological effects, etc., and to develop alarm plans and disaster mitigation procedures. The basis for estimating the SCF are the uncertainty assessments of the design flood values estimated by the three methods including unlikely combinations of the controlling factors and attending uncertainties. Finally we discuss the impact on the downstream valley of floods exceeding the design values and of smaller floods and illustrate the basic concepts by examples from the recent flood in August 2002.

Making the Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission safe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bahr, N. J.; Depalo, S. V.

1992-01-01

The implementation of the HST system safety program is detailed. Numerous safety analyses are conducted through various phases of design, test, and fabrication, and results are presented to NASA management for discussion during dedicated safety reviews. Attention is given to the system safety assessment and risk analysis methodologies used, i.e., hazard analysis, fault tree analysis, and failure modes and effects analysis, and to how they are coupled with engineering and test analysis for a 'synergistic picture' of the system. Some preliminary safety analysis results, showing the relationship between hazard identification, control or abatement, and finally control verification, are presented as examples of this safety process.

A decision analytic model to investigate the cost-effectiveness of poisoning prevention practices in households with young children.

PubMed

Achana, Felix; Sutton, Alex J; Kendrick, Denise; Hayes, Mike; Jones, David R; Hubbard, Stephanie J; Cooper, Nicola J

2016-08-03

Systematic reviews and a network meta-analysis show home safety education with or without the provision of safety equipment is effective in promoting poison prevention behaviours in households with children. This paper compares the cost-effectiveness of home safety interventions to promote poison prevention practices. A probabilistic decision-analytic model simulates healthcare costs and benefits for a hypothetical cohort of under 5 year olds. The model compares the cost-effectiveness of home safety education, home safety inspections, provision of free or low cost safety equipment and fitting of equipment. Analyses are conducted from a UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective and expressed in 2012 prices. Education without safety inspection, provision or fitting of equipment was the most cost-effective strategy for promoting safe storage of medicines with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2888 (95 % credible interval (CrI) £1990-£5774) per poison case avoided or £41,330 (95%CrI £20,007-£91,534) per QALY gained compared with usual care. Compared to usual care, home safety interventions were not cost-effective in promoting safe storage of other household products. Education offers better value for money than more intensive but expensive strategies for preventing medicinal poisonings, but is only likely to be cost-effective at £30,000 per QALY gained for families in disadvantaged areas and for those with more than one child. There was considerable uncertainty in cost-effectiveness estimates due to paucity of evidence on model parameters. Policy makers should consider both costs and effectiveness of competing interventions to ensure efficient use of resources.

Systems cost/performance analysis (study 2.3). Volume 2: Systems cost/performance model. [unmanned automated payload programs and program planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, B. H.

1974-01-01

A methodology which was developed for balanced designing of spacecraft subsystems and interrelates cost, performance, safety, and schedule considerations was refined. The methodology consists of a two-step process: the first step is one of selecting all hardware designs which satisfy the given performance and safety requirements, the second step is one of estimating the cost and schedule required to design, build, and operate each spacecraft design. Using this methodology to develop a systems cost/performance model allows the user of such a model to establish specific designs and the related costs and schedule. The user is able to determine the sensitivity of design, costs, and schedules to changes in requirements. The resulting systems cost performance model is described and implemented as a digital computer program.

Lavia – an Evaluation of the Potential Safety Benefits of the French Intelligent Speed Adaptation Project

PubMed Central

Driscoll, R.; Page, Y.; Lassarre, S.; Ehrlich, J.

2007-01-01

This paper presents the potential safety benefits of the experimental French LAVIA Intelligent Speed Adaptation system, according to road network and system mode, based on observed driving speeds, distributions of crash severity and crash injury risk. Results are given for car frontal and side impacts that together, represent 80% of all serious and fatal injuries in France. Of the three system modes tested (advisory, driver select, mandatory), our results suggest that driver select would most significantly reduce serious injuries and death. We estimate this 100% utilization of cars equipped with this type of speed adaptation system would decrease injury rates by 6% to 16% over existing conditions depending on the type of crash (frontal or side) and road environment considered. Some limitations associated with the analysis are also identified. PMID:18184509

Evaluation of liquefaction potential for building code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunziata, C.; De Nisco, G.; Panza, G. F.

2008-07-01

The standard approach for the evaluation of the liquefaction susceptibility is based on the estimation of a safety factor between the cyclic shear resistance to liquefaction and the earthquake induced shear stress. Recently, an updated procedure based on shear-wave velocities (Vs) has been proposed which could be more easily applied. These methods have been applied at La Plaja beach of Catania, that experienced liquefaction because of the 1693 earthquake. The detailed geotechnical and Vs information and the realistic ground motion computed for the 1693 event let us compare the two approaches. The successful application of the Vs procedure, slightly modified to fit historical and safety factor information, even if additional field performances are needed, encourages the development of a guide for liquefaction potential analysis, based on well defined Vs profiles to be included in the italian seismic code.

Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding flammable gas accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-03-19

The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST).more » A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. As will be shown, the consequences of a detonation in either an SST or a double-shell tank (DST) are approximately equal. A detonation in an SST was selected as the bounding condition because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are generally greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes.« less

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan

2011-01-01

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

Safety analysts training

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolton, P.

The purpose of this task was to support ESH-3 in providing Airborne Release Fraction and Respirable Fraction training to safety analysts at LANL who perform accident analysis, hazard analysis, safety analysis, and/or risk assessments at nuclear facilities. The task included preparation of materials for and the conduct of two 3-day training courses covering the following topics: safety analysis process; calculation model; aerosol physic concepts for safety analysis; and overview of empirically derived airborne release fractions and respirable fractions.

Robotic-assisted versus open radical cystectomy in bladder cancer: A meta-analysis of four randomized controlled trails.

PubMed

Tang, Jin-Qiu; Zhao, Zhihong; Liang, Yiwen; Liao, Guixiang

2018-02-01

Robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) is increasing annually for treatment of bladder cancer. The objective of this meta-analysis was to compare the safety and efficacy of RARC and open radical cystectomy (ORC) for bladder cancer. Our meta-analysis searches were conducted using PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases to identify randomized controlled trials (RCT) assessing the two techniques. Four RCT studies were identified, including 239 cases. Our studies indicated that RARC was associated with longer operative time (WMD: 69.69, 95% CI:17.25 to122.12; P= 0.009), lower estimated blood loss (WMD: -299.83, 95% CI:-414.66to -184.99; P<0.00001). The two groups had no significant difference in overall perioperative complications, length of hospital stay, lymph node yield and positive surgical margins. RARC is mini-invasive alternative to ORC for bladder cancer. The advantage of RARC was reduced estimated blood loss. More studies are needed to compare the two techniques. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Main steam line break accident simulation of APR1400 using the model of ATLAS facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekariansyah, A. S.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, Geni R.

2018-02-01

A main steam line break simulation for APR1400 as an advanced design of PWR has been performed using the RELAP5 code. The simulation was conducted in a model of thermal-hydraulic test facility called as ATLAS, which represents a scaled down facility of the APR1400 design. The main steam line break event is described in a open-access safety report document, in which initial conditions and assumptionsfor the analysis were utilized in performing the simulation and analysis of the selected parameter. The objective of this work was to conduct a benchmark activities by comparing the simulation results of the CESEC-III code as a conservative approach code with the results of RELAP5 as a best-estimate code. Based on the simulation results, a general similarity in the behavior of selected parameters was observed between the two codes. However the degree of accuracy still needs further research an analysis by comparing with the other best-estimate code. Uncertainties arising from the ATLAS model should be minimized by taking into account much more specific data in developing the APR1400 model.

Parametric Analysis of Surveillance Quality and Level and Quality of Intent Information and Their Impact on Conflict Detection Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Butler, Ricky W.; Hagen, George E.; Maddalon, Jeffrey M.; Lewis, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

A loss-of-separation (LOS) is said to occur when two aircraft are spatially too close to one another. A LOS is the fundamental unsafe event to be avoided in air traffic management and conflict detection (CD) is the function that attempts to predict these LOS events. In general, the effectiveness of conflict detection relates to the overall safety and performance of an air traffic management concept. An abstract, parametric analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of surveillance quality, level of intent information, and quality of intent information on conflict detection performance. The data collected in this analysis can be used to estimate the conflict detection performance under alternative future scenarios or alternative allocations of the conflict detection function, based on the quality of the surveillance and intent information under those conditions.Alternatively, this data could also be used to estimate the surveillance and intent information quality required to achieve some desired CD performance as part of the design of a new separation assurance system.

Highway-rail intersection crash taxonomy for connected vehicle safety research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

This report characterizes the frequency, severity, and costs of highway-rail intersection (HRI) collisions, and the estimated potential reductions in these metrics resulting from the implementation of Connected Vehicle HRI safety applications. Multip...

Gender differences in the adverse events’ profile registered in seven observational studies of a wide gender-medicine (MetaGeM) project: the MetaGeM safety analysis

PubMed Central

Colombo, Delia; Zagni, Emanuela; Nica, Mihaela; Rizzoli, Sara; Ori, Alessandra; Bellia, Gilberto

2016-01-01

Background MetaGeM is a wide gender-medicine project comprising post hoc and meta-analyses by gender of clinical outcomes, therapeutic approaches, and safety data from previously conducted observational studies to explore possible gender differences in real-life clinical settings. We report the results of the safety meta-analysis of seven MetaGeM studies, evaluating gender differences in adverse event (AE) incidence and severity. Methods Data were collected between February 2002 and July 2013. Male and female patients were compared for the main safety variables, using Student’s t-test, χ2 test, or Fisher’s exact test as appropriate. As supportive analysis, a logistic regression model was estimated to evaluate associations between gender and outcome. Results In total, 4,870 patients (46% females, 54% males) were included in the analysis; age was higher for females (mean ± standard deviation 61.2±18.3 years) than males (56.3±16.6 years). Overall, 264 AEs were reported (59.1% in males). There were no significant gender differences in the percentage of patients with at least one AE: 3.0% for females versus 3.9% for males, χ2 test P>0.05. According to the logistic regression model results, no association between gender and AEs occurrence seems to exist. A statistically significant gender difference in the percentage of drug-related AEs emerged (37.6% in females vs 20.8% in males, χ2 P=0.0039). Slightly significantly more AEs in females were addressed with treatment compared with males (78.1% vs 66.7%, χ2 P=0.0485). Total serious AEs (SAEs) were 47 (72% in males). The frequency of patients with ≥1 SAE was 0.6% in females versus 1.2% in males (χ2 test P=0.0246). Conclusion This safety analysis on a large sample of almost 5,000 patients with different diseases and treated with a wide range of different drugs provides a useful overview on possible gender differences in drug tolerability, which may be helpful in more accurately designing future clinical trials from a gender-specific perspective. PMID:27695289

Improved processes for meeting the data requirements for implementing the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) and Safety Analyst in Florida.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

Recent research in highway safety has focused on the more advanced and statistically proven techniques of highway : safety analysis. This project focuses on the two most recent safety analysis tools, the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) : and SafetyAnalys...

Unequally Safe: The Race Gap in School Safety. Working Paper #01-13

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lacoe, Johanna

2013-01-01

Inequality in educational outcomes is a frequent topic of policy debate. This paper investigates one potential source of educational inequality--school safety. With panel survey data of middle school students, this paper estimates racial gaps in student feelings of safety in the classroom, in the hallways, and outside the school building, and how…

Operation GREENHOUSE-1951

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-15

GREENHOUSE, DOG. 107 28 Runit Island radiological safety survey results following GREENHOUSE, DOG. 108 29 Estimate of maximum possible exposure at Parry...Enjebi Island radiological safety survey results following GREENHOUSE, EASY. 116 35 GREENHOUSE, EASY flight patterns. 118 36 Surface radex area and ship...positions during GREENHOUSE, GEORGE. 120 37 GREENHOUSE, GEORGE flight patterns. 122 38 Eleleron, Aomon, and Bijire island radiological safety survey

Traffic safety facts 1996 : state alcohol estimates

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The following data provide estimates of alcohol involvement in fatal crashes for the United States and individually for the 50 state, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico (not included in the national totals). These estimates are based on data f...

Laboratory evaluation of a field-portable sealed source X-ray fluorescence spectrometer for determination of metals in air filter samples.

PubMed

Lawryk, Nicholas J; Feng, H Amy; Chen, Bean T

2009-07-01

Recent advances in field-portable X-ray fluorescence (FP XRF) spectrometer technology have made it a potentially valuable screening tool for the industrial hygienist to estimate worker exposures to airborne metals. Although recent studies have shown that FP XRF technology may be better suited for qualitative or semiquantitative analysis of airborne lead in the workplace, these studies have not extensively addressed its ability to measure other elements. This study involved a laboratory-based evaluation of a representative model FP XRF spectrometer to measure elements commonly encountered in workplace settings that may be collected on air sample filter media, including chromium, copper, iron, manganese, nickel, lead, and zinc. The evaluation included assessments of (1) response intensity with respect to location on the probe window, (2) limits of detection for five different filter media, (3) limits of detection as a function of analysis time, and (4) bias, precision, and accuracy estimates. Teflon, polyvinyl chloride, polypropylene, and mixed cellulose ester filter media all had similarly low limits of detection for the set of elements examined. Limits of detection, bias, and precision generally improved with increasing analysis time. Bias, precision, and accuracy estimates generally improved with increasing element concentration. Accuracy estimates met the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health criterion for nearly all the element and concentration combinations. Based on these results, FP XRF spectrometry shows potential to be useful in the assessment of worker inhalation exposures to other metals in addition to lead.

Diverging Conclusions from the Same Meta-Analysis in Drug Safety: Source of Data (Primary Versus Secondary) Takes a Toll.

PubMed

Prada-Ramallal, Guillermo; Takkouche, Bahi; Figueiras, Adolfo

2017-04-01

Meta-analyses of observational studies represent an important tool for assessing efficacy and safety in the pharmacoepidemiologic field. The data from the individual studies are either primary (i.e., collected through interviews or self-administered questionnaires) or secondary (i.e., collected from databases that were established for other purposes). So far, the origin of the data (primary vs. secondary) has not been systematically assessed as a source of heterogeneity in pharmacoepidemiologic meta-analyses. The aim was to assess the impact of considering the source of exposure data as a criterion in sensitivity and subgroup analysis on the conclusions of drug safety meta-analyses. We selected meta-analyses published between 2013 and 2015 in which the intake of frequently used over-the-counter medicines was either the main exposure or a concomitant treatment and the outcome had short latency and induction periods. We stratified the results by origin of data (primary vs. secondary) and compared the new results to those presented originally in the meta-analyses. We used four meta-analyses that fulfilled our criteria of inclusion. The results were selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and upper gastrointestinal bleeding: original estimate odds ratio (OR) = 1.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.44-2.04], OR primary data = 1.19 (95% CI 0.90-1.58), OR secondary data = 1.81 (95% CI 1.50-2.17); proton pump inhibitors and cardiac events: original estimate hazard ratio (HR) = 1.35 (95% CI 1.18-1.54), HR primary data = 1.05 (95% CI 0.87-1.26), HR secondary data = 1.43 (95% CI 1.23-1.66); non-aspirin non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and myocardial infarction: original estimate risk ratio (RR) = 1.08 (95% CI 0.95-1.22), RR primary data = 0.57 (95% CI 0.34-0.96), RR secondary data = 1.15 (95% CI 1.03-1.28); paracetamol during pregnancy and childhood asthma: original estimate OR = 1.32 (95% CI 1.14-1.52), OR primary data = 1.23 (95% CI 1.06-1.42), OR secondary data = 1.53 (95% CI 1.33-1.75). The results after stratification are considerably modified. It is crucial to explore the origin of the data, either primary or secondary, as a source of heterogeneity in pharmacoepidemiologic meta-analyses to avoid misleading conclusions.

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1; System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Smith, Curtis; Stamatelatos, Michael; Youngblood, Robert

2011-01-01

System safety assessment is defined in NPR 8715.3C, NASA General Safety Program Requirements as a disciplined, systematic approach to the analysis of risks resulting from hazards that can affect humans, the environment, and mission assets. Achievement of the highest practicable degree of system safety is one of NASA's highest priorities. Traditionally, system safety assessment at NASA and elsewhere has focused on the application of a set of safety analysis tools to identify safety risks and formulate effective controls.1 Familiar tools used for this purpose include various forms of hazard analyses, failure modes and effects analyses, and probabilistic safety assessment (commonly also referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)). In the past, it has been assumed that to show that a system is safe, it is sufficient to provide assurance that the process for identifying the hazards has been as comprehensive as possible and that each identified hazard has one or more associated controls. The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has made several statements in its annual reports supporting a more holistic approach. In 2006, it recommended that "... a comprehensive risk assessment, communication and acceptance process be implemented to ensure that overall launch risk is considered in an integrated and consistent manner." In 2009, it advocated for "... a process for using a risk-informed design approach to produce a design that is optimally and sufficiently safe." As a rationale for the latter advocacy, it stated that "... the ASAP applauds switching to a performance-based approach because it emphasizes early risk identification to guide designs, thus enabling creative design approaches that might be more efficient, safer, or both." For purposes of this preface, it is worth mentioning three areas where the handbook emphasizes a more holistic type of thinking. First, the handbook takes the position that it is important to not just focus on risk on an individual basis but to consider measures of aggregate safety risk and to ensure wherever possible that there be quantitative measures for evaluating how effective the controls are in reducing these aggregate risks. The term aggregate risk, when used in this handbook, refers to the accumulation of risks from individual scenarios that lead to a shortfall in safety performance at a high level: e.g., an excessively high probability of loss of crew, loss of mission, planetary contamination, etc. Without aggregated quantitative measures such as these, it is not reasonable to expect that safety has been optimized with respect to other technical and programmatic objectives. At the same time, it is fully recognized that not all sources of risk are amenable to precise quantitative analysis and that the use of qualitative approaches and bounding estimates may be appropriate for those risk sources. Second, the handbook stresses the necessity of developing confidence that the controls derived for the purpose of achieving system safety not only handle risks that have been identified and properly characterized but also provide a general, more holistic means for protecting against unidentified or uncharacterized risks. For example, while it is not possible to be assured that all credible causes of risk have been identified, there are defenses that can provide protection against broad categories of risks and thereby increase the chances that individual causes are contained. Third, the handbook strives at all times to treat uncertainties as an integral aspect of risk and as a part of making decisions. The term "uncertainty" here does not refer to an actuarial type of data analysis, but rather to a characterization of our state of knowledge regarding results from logical and physical models that approximate reality. Uncertainty analysis finds how the output parameters of the models are related to plausible variations in the input parameters and in the modeling assumptions. The evaluation of unrtainties represents a method of probabilistic thinking wherein the analyst and decision makers recognize possible outcomes other than the outcome perceived to be "most likely." Without this type of analysis, it is not possible to determine the worth of an analysis product as a basis for making decisions related to safety and mission success. In line with these considerations the handbook does not take a hazard-analysis-centric approach to system safety. Hazard analysis remains a useful tool to facilitate brainstorming but does not substitute for a more holistic approach geared to a comprehensive identification and understanding of individual risk issues and their contributions to aggregate safety risks. The handbook strives to emphasize the importance of identifying the most critical scenarios that contribute to the risk of not meeting the agreed-upon safety objectives and requirements using all appropriate tools (including but not limited to hazard analysis). Thereafter, emphasis shifts to identifying the risk drivers that cause these scenarios to be critical and ensuring that there are controls directed toward preventing or mitigating the risk drivers. To address these and other areas, the handbook advocates a proactive, analytic-deliberative, risk-informed approach to system safety, enabling the integration of system safety activities with systems engineering and risk management processes. It emphasizes how one can systematically provide the necessary evidence to substantiate the claim that a system is safe to within an acceptable risk tolerance, and that safety has been achieved in a cost-effective manner. The methodology discussed in this handbook is part of a systems engineering process and is intended to be integral to the system safety practices being conducted by the NASA safety and mission assurance and systems engineering organizations. The handbook posits that to conclude that a system is adequately safe, it is necessary to consider a set of safety claims that derive from the safety objectives of the organization. The safety claims are developed from a hierarchy of safety objectives and are therefore hierarchical themselves. Assurance that all the claims are true within acceptable risk tolerance limits implies that all of the safety objectives have been satisfied, and therefore that the system is safe. The acceptable risk tolerance limits are provided by the authority who must make the decision whether or not to proceed to the next step in the life cycle. These tolerances are therefore referred to as the decision maker's risk tolerances. In general, the safety claims address two fundamental facets of safety: 1) whether required safety thresholds or goals have been achieved, and 2) whether the safety risk is as low as possible within reasonable impacts on cost, schedule, and performance. The latter facet includes consideration of controls that are collective in nature (i.e., apply generically to broad categories of risks) and thereby provide protection against unidentified or uncharacterized risks.

An updated numerical simulation of the ground-water flow system for the Castle Lake debris dam, Mount St. Helens, Washington, and implications for dam stability against heave

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roeloffs, Evelyn A.

1994-01-01

A numerical simulation of the ground-water flow system in the Castle Lake debris dam, calibrated to data from the 1991 and 1992 water years, was used to estimate factors of safety against heave and internal erosion. The Castle Lake debris dam, 5 miles northwest of the summit of Mount St. Helens, impounds 19,000 acre-ft of water that could pose a flood hazard in the event of a lake breakout. A new topographic map of the Castle Lake area prior to the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was prepared and used to calculate the thickness of the debris avalanche deposits that compose the dam. Water levels in 22 piezometers and discharges from seeps on the dam face measured several times per year beginning in 1990 supplemented measurements in 11 piezometers and less frequent seep discharge measurements made since 1983. Observations in one group of piezometers reveal heads above the land surface and head gradients favoring upward flow that correspond to factors of safety only slightly greater than 2. The steady-state ground-water flow system in the debris dam was simulated using a threedimensional finite difference computer program. A uniform, isotropic model having the same shape as the dam and a hydraulic conductivity of 1.55 ft/day simulates the correct water level at half the observation points, but is in error by 10 ft or more at other points. Spatial variations of hydraulic conductivity were required to calibrate the model. The model analysis suggests that ground water flows in both directions between the debris dam and Castle Lake. Factors of safety against heave and internal erosion were calculated where the model simulated upward flow of ground water. A critical gradient analysis yields factors of safety as low as 2 near the piezometers where water level observations indicate low factors of safety. Low safety factors are also computed near Castle Creek where slumping was caused by a storm in January, 1990. If hydraulic property contrasts are present in areas of the debris dam unsampled by piezometers, then low safety factors may exist that are not evident in the numerical model analysis. Numerical model simulations showed that lowering Castle Lake by 40 feet increases many factors of safety by 0.1, but increases greater than 1 are limited to the area of 1990 slumping.

Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework.

PubMed

Niroomand, Naghmeh; Jenkins, Glenn P

2017-09-01

The incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks. We conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved. The estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour. The ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned. Findings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Best estimate plus uncertainty analysis of departure from nucleate boiling limiting case with CASL core simulator VERA-CS in response to PWR main steam line break event

DOE PAGES

Brown, Cameron S.; Zhang, Hongbin; Kucukboyaci, Vefa; ...

2016-09-07

VERA-CS (Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator) is a coupled neutron transport and thermal-hydraulics subchannel code under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). VERA-CS was used to simulate a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) full core response with 17x17 fuel assemblies for a main steam line break (MSLB) accident scenario with the most reactive rod cluster control assembly stuck out of the core. The accident scenario was initiated at the hot zero power (HZP) at the end of the first fuel cycle with return to power state points that were determined by amore » system analysis code and the most limiting state point was chosen for core analysis. The best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis method was applied using Wilks’ nonparametric statistical approach. In this way, 59 full core simulations were performed to provide the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR) at the 95/95 (95% probability with 95% confidence level) tolerance limit. The results show that this typical PWR core remains within MDNBR safety limits for the MSLB accident.« less

Best estimate plus uncertainty analysis of departure from nucleate boiling limiting case with CASL core simulator VERA-CS in response to PWR main steam line break event

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Cameron S.; Zhang, Hongbin; Kucukboyaci, Vefa

VERA-CS (Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator) is a coupled neutron transport and thermal-hydraulics subchannel code under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). VERA-CS was used to simulate a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) full core response with 17x17 fuel assemblies for a main steam line break (MSLB) accident scenario with the most reactive rod cluster control assembly stuck out of the core. The accident scenario was initiated at the hot zero power (HZP) at the end of the first fuel cycle with return to power state points that were determined by amore » system analysis code and the most limiting state point was chosen for core analysis. The best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis method was applied using Wilks’ nonparametric statistical approach. In this way, 59 full core simulations were performed to provide the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR) at the 95/95 (95% probability with 95% confidence level) tolerance limit. The results show that this typical PWR core remains within MDNBR safety limits for the MSLB accident.« less

Effectiveness and safety of tolvaptan in liver cirrhosis patients with edema: Interim results of post-marketing surveillance of tolvaptan in liver cirrhosis (START study).

PubMed

Sakaida, Isao; Terai, Shuji; Kurosaki, Masayuki; Yasuda, Moriyoshi; Okada, Mitsuru; Bando, Kosuke; Fukuta, Yasuhiko

2017-10-01

Loop diuretics and spironolactone are used in patients with hepatic edema, but they are sometimes associated with insufficient responses as well as adverse events. Tolvaptan, a vasopressin type 2 receptor antagonist, was approved for hepatic edema in 2013. A large-scale post-marketing surveillance study has been carried out to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of tolvaptan in real-world clinical settings. Patients with hepatic cirrhosis with insufficient response to conventional diuretics were enrolled. The observational period was up to 6 months. Changes in body weight and clinical symptoms were measured to evaluate effectiveness. The incidence of adverse drug reactions was summarized as a safety measure. Of 970 patients enrolled, 463 were included in the safety analysis. Of this group, 340 were included in the effectiveness analysis. Decreases in body weight from baseline were -2.38 kg on day 7 and -3.52 kg on day 14. Ascites and bloated feeling was significantly improved within 14 days. The mean change in body weight depended on estimated glomerular filtration rate levels. The most frequently reported adverse drug reaction was thirst (6.9% of patients). Serum sodium level of ≥146 mEq/L was observed in 12 patients (2.7%). In the real-world clinical setting, tolvaptan showed aquaretic effectiveness in patients with cirrhosis. The mean change in body weight depended on renal function. We recommend tolvaptan use for hepatic cirrhosis at a stage in which the renal function is maintained. © 2016 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Establishing crash modification factors and their use.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-08-01

A critical component in the Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Highway Safety Manual : (HSM) safety management process is the Crash Modification Factor (CMF). It is used to estimate the change in the : expected (ave...

Milrinone for the Treatment of Acute Heart Failure After Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Tang, Xiuying; Liu, Peng; Li, Runjun; Jing, Quanmin; Lv, Junhao; Liu, Li; Liu, Yingfeng

2015-09-01

Despite advancements in modern medicine, the treatment of acute heart failure (AHF) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains challenging. Milrinone is effective in the treatment of chronic congestive heart failure, but its safety and efficacy in patients with AHF after AMI have not been systematically evaluated. This meta-analysis was performed to assess the safety and efficacy of milrinone in patients with AHF after AMI. We used a pre-designed protocol to search electronic databases for randomized trials assessing milrinone for the treatment of AHF after AMI. Data were abstracted from relevant studies. Heterogeneity was assessed qualitatively using a Q test and quantified using the I(2) statistic. Pooled risk estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using fixed-effects models unless substantial heterogeneity was observed (I(2) ≥ 50% and heterogeneity p ≤ 0.1). Four randomized trials met the inclusion criteria. However, there were no significant differences in deaths, blood pressure, premature ventricular contractions, gastrointestinal reactions, or ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation (all p > 0.05) between control group and milrinone treatment group. Pooled estimates showed that milrinone significantly increased the left ventricular ejection fraction (MD 5.69; 95% CI 4.27 to 7.10; p < 0.00001) and cardiac output (MD 0.35, 95% CI: 0.13 to 0.56; p = 0.002, I(2) = 24%). While studies to date are few and limited by small sample sizes and poor quality, they suggest that treatment with milrinone may be safe and effective for patients with AHF after AMI. However, this meta-analysis did not show that milrinone could improve prognosis or the survival rate. © 2015 Nordic Association for the Publication of BCPT (former Nordic Pharmacological Society).

Cardiovascular safety with linagliptin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a pre-specified, prospective, and adjudicated meta-analysis of a phase 3 programme.

PubMed

Johansen, Odd Erik; Neubacher, Dietmar; von Eynatten, Maximilian; Patel, Sanjay; Woerle, Hans-Juergen

2012-01-10

This study investigated the cardiovascular (CV) safety profile of the dipeptidyl peptidase (DPP)-4 inhibitor linagliptin versus comparator treatments. This was a pre-specified meta-analysis of CV events in linagliptin or comparator-treated patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from eight Phase 3 studies. All suspected CV events were prospectively adjudicated by a blinded independent expert committee. The primary endpoint was a composite of CV death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and hospitalization for unstable angina. Three secondary composite endpoints derived from the adjudicated CV events were also pre-specified. Risk estimates were calculated using several statistical methods including Cox regression analysis. Of 5239 treated patients (mean ± SD HbA1c 65 ± 10 mmol/mol [8.0 ± 0.9%], age 58 ± 10 years, BMI 29 ± 5 kg/m2), 3319 received linagliptin once daily (5 mg, 3159; 10 mg, 160) and 1920 received comparators (placebo, 977; glimepiride 1-4 mg, 781; voglibose 0.6 mg, 162). Cumulative exposure (patient-years) was 2060 for linagliptin and 1372 for comparators. Primary CV events occurred in 11 (0.3%) patients receiving linagliptin and 23 (1.2%) receiving comparators. The hazard ratio (HR) for the primary endpoint showed significantly lower risk with linagliptin than comparators (HR 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16-0.70]) as did estimates for all secondary endpoints (HR ranging from 0.34 to 0.55 [all upper 95% CIs < 1.0]). These results from a large Phase 3 programme support the hypothesis that linagliptin may have CV benefits in patients with T2DM. © 2012 Johansen et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Looking for the best immune-checkpoint inhibitor in pre-treated NSCLC patients: An indirect comparison between nivolumab, pembrolizumab and atezolizumab.

PubMed

Passiglia, Francesco; Galvano, Antonio; Rizzo, Sergio; Incorvaia, Lorena; Listì, Angela; Bazan, Viviana; Russo, Antonio

2018-03-15

Immune-checkpoint inhibitors represent the new standard of care in patients with advanced NSCLC who progressed after first-line treatment. This work aim to assess any difference in both efficacy and safety profiles among Nivolumab, Pembrolizumab and Atezolizumab in pre-treated NSCLC patients. Randomized clinical trials comparing immune-checkpoint inhibitor versus docetaxel in pre-treated patients with advanced NSCLC were included and direct comparison meta-analysis of selected trials have been performed. Subsequently the summary estimates of Nivolumab, Pembrolizumab and Atezolizumab emerging from the direct meta-analysis were selected to provide the pooled estimates of hazard ratio (HR) and relative risk (RR) for the indirect comparisons among these agents. A total of 5 studies met the selection criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Indirect comparisons for efficacy outcomes showed the RR for ORR nivolumab versus atezolizumab 1.66 (95% CI 1.07-2.58), pembrolizumab versus atezolizumab 1.94 (95% CI 1.30-2.90). No significant differences in both PFS and OS have been observed. Indirect comparisons for safety showed the RR for G3-5 AEs nivolumab versus pembrolizumab 0.41 (95% CI 0.29-0.60), nivolumab versus atezolizumab 0.50 (95% CI 0.35-0.72). No significant differences in both pneumonitis and discontinuation rate have been observed. The results of this work revealed that nivolumab and pembrolizumab are associated with a significant increase of ORR as compared to atezolizumab and nivolumab is associated with a significant lower incidence of G3-5 AEs as compared to the other drugs. These evidences could support the oncologists to select the best drug for each patient. © 2017 UICC.

Left atrial appendage occlusion for prevention of stroke in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bode, Weeranun D; Patel, Nikhil; Gehi, Anil K

2015-06-01

When anticoagulation for stroke prevention is contraindicated, left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) may be performed. Studies of LAAO have been limited by their small size, disparate patient populations, and lack of control group. Our purpose was to perform a meta-analysis of the safety and efficacy of LAAO in comparison with standard therapy for stroke prevention in nonvalvular AF. Due to the lack of a control group in studies of LAAO, data on stroke prevention from multiple large outcomes studies were used to produce a hypothetical control group based on clinical variables in the individual studies. Results were stratified according to LAAO device type. We identified 16 studies with a total of 1759 patients receiving LAAO. Summary estimates demonstrate LAAO reduced risk of stroke in comparison with no therapy or aspirin therapy [relative risk (RR), 0.34; 95 % CI, 0.25-0.46] and in comparison with warfarin therapy (RR, 0.65; 95 % CI, 0.46-0.91). Summary estimates differed based on the study used to derive the hypothetical control group. Device deployment was unsuccessful in 6.1 % of patients, and overall complication rate was 7.1 %. Efficacy and safety were similar across LAAO device type although a majority of patients in the meta-analysis received a Watchman device. Our data suggest that LAAO is a reasonable option for stroke prophylaxis in AF when anticoagulation is not an option, and the risk for stroke outweighs the risk of procedural complications. Data were limited with the use of most available devices. To better establish the risk and benefit of LAAO in comparison with standard therapy, more randomized controlled trials are necessary.

The Toxic Truth About Carbon Nanotubes in Water Purification: a Perspective View.

PubMed

Das, Rasel; Leo, Bey Fen; Murphy, Finbarr

2018-06-18

Without nanosafety guidelines, the long-term sustainability of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) for water purifications is questionable. Current risk measurements of CNTs are overshadowed by uncertainties. New risks associated with CNTs are evolving through different waste water purification routes, and there are knowledge gaps in the risk assessment of CNTs based on their physical properties. Although scientific efforts to design risk estimates are evolving, there remains a paucity of knowledge on the unknown health risks of CNTs. The absence of universal CNT safety guidelines is a specific hindrance. In this paper, we close these gaps and suggested several new risk analysis roots and framework extrapolations from CNT-based water purification technologies. We propose a CNT safety clock that will help assess risk appraisal and management. We suggest that this could form the basis of an acceptable CNT safety guideline. We pay particular emphasis on measuring risks based on CNT physico-chemical properties such as diameter, length, aspect ratio, type, charge, hydrophobicity, functionalities and so on which determine CNT behaviour in waste water treatment plants and subsequent release into the environment.

Influence of safety measures on the risks of transporting dangerous goods through road tunnels.

PubMed

Saccomanno, Frank; Haastrup, Palle

2002-12-01

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of "native safety measures." In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important "nonnative safety measures" of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.

Understanding Risk Tolerance and Building an Effective Safety Culture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loyd, David

2018-01-01

Estimates range from 65-90 percent of catastrophic mishaps are due to human error. NASA's human factors-related mishaps causes are estimated at approximately 75 percent. As much as we'd like to error-proof our work environment, even the most automated and complex technical endeavors require human interaction... and are vulnerable to human frailty. Industry and government are focusing not only on human factors integration into hazardous work environments, but also looking for practical approaches to cultivating a strong Safety Culture that diminishes risk. Industry and government organizations have recognized the value of monitoring leading indicators to identify potential risk vulnerabilities. NASA has adapted this approach to assess risk controls associated with hazardous, critical, and complex facilities. NASA's facility risk assessments integrate commercial loss control, OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) Process Safety, API (American Petroleum Institute) Performance Indicator Standard, and NASA Operational Readiness Inspection concepts to identify risk control vulnerabilities.

Use of empirical and full Bayes before-after approaches to estimate the safety effects of roadside barriers with different crash conditions.

PubMed

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2016-09-01

Although many researchers have estimated the crash modification factors (CMFs) for specific treatments (or countermeasures), there is a lack of prior studies that have explored the variation of CMFs. Thus, the main objectives of this study are: (a) to estimate CMFs for the installation of different types of roadside barriers, and (b) to determine the changes of safety effects for different crash types, severities, and conditions. Two observational before-after analyses (i.e. empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) approaches) were utilized in this study to estimate CMFs. To consider the variation of safety effects based on different vehicle, driver, weather, and time of day information, the crashes were categorized based on vehicle size (passenger and heavy), driver age (young, middle, and old), weather condition (normal and rain), and time difference (day time and night time). The results show that the addition of roadside barriers is safety effective in reducing severe crashes for all types and run-off roadway (ROR) crashes. On the other hand, it was found that roadside barriers tend to increase all types of crashes for all severities. The results indicate that the treatment might increase the total number of crashes but it might be helpful in reducing injury and severe crashes. In this study, the variation of CMFs was determined for ROR crashes based on the different vehicle, driver, weather, and time information. Based on the findings from this study, the variation of CMFs can enhance the reliability of CMFs for different roadway conditions in decision making process. Also, it can be recommended to identify the safety effects of specific treatments for different crash types and severity levels with consideration of the different vehicle, driver, weather, and time of day information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the U.S. Food Safety Modernization Act Produce Safety Rule Standard for Microbial Quality of Agricultural Water for Growing Produce.

PubMed

Havelaar, Arie H; Vazquez, Kathleen M; Topalcengiz, Zeynal; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Danyluk, Michelle D

2017-10-09

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has defined standards for the microbial quality of agricultural surface water used for irrigation. According to the FDA produce safety rule (PSR), a microbial water quality profile requires analysis of a minimum of 20 samples for Escherichia coli over 2 to 4 years. The geometric mean (GM) level of E. coli should not exceed 126 CFU/100 mL, and the statistical threshold value (STV) should not exceed 410 CFU/100 mL. The water quality profile should be updated by analysis of a minimum of five samples per year. We used an extensive set of data on levels of E. coli and other fecal indicator organisms, the presence or absence of Salmonella, and physicochemical parameters in six agricultural irrigation ponds in West Central Florida to evaluate the empirical and theoretical basis of this PSR. We found highly variable log-transformed E. coli levels, with standard deviations exceeding those assumed in the PSR by up to threefold. Lognormal distributions provided an acceptable fit to the data in most cases but may underestimate extreme levels. Replacing censored data with the detection limit of the microbial tests underestimated the true variability, leading to biased estimates of GM and STV. Maximum likelihood estimation using truncated lognormal distributions is recommended. Twenty samples are not sufficient to characterize the bacteriological quality of irrigation ponds, and a rolling data set of five samples per year used to update GM and STV values results in highly uncertain results and delays in detecting a shift in water quality. In these ponds, E. coli was an adequate predictor of the presence of Salmonella in 150-mL samples, and turbidity was a second significant variable. The variability in levels of E. coli in agricultural water was higher than that anticipated when the PSR was finalized, and more detailed information based on mechanistic modeling is necessary to develop targeted risk management strategies.

Estimates of amounts of soil removal for clean-up of transuranics at NAEG offsite safety-shot sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinnison, R.R.; Gilbert, R.O.

Rough estimates are given for the amount of soil removal necessary to decontaminate five representative safety-shot areas. In order to decontaminate to levels of less than 160 pCi /sup 239/Pu per gram of surface soil, it is estimated that over one-half million tons of soil would have to be removed from the five areas. This is a preliminary estimate based on summary data and concentration contour maps readily available in NAEG publications. More accurate estimates could be obtained by applying Kriging techniques to available soil data if the need arises. The inclusion of /sup 241/Am and /sup 238/Pu activities domore » not significantly increase the soil tonnage estimates obtained for /sup 239/ /sup 240/Pu because of their relatively small contributions to total transuranic activity. The magnitude of the errors inherent in our use of summary data to obtain rough estimates also suggests that a revision of the tonnage estimates for /sup 239/ /sup 240/Pu to include /sup 241/Am and /sup 238/Pu is not warranted.« less

Promoting early exposure monitoring for respirable crystalline silica: Taking the laboratory to the mine site

PubMed Central

Cauda, Emanuele; Miller, Arthur; Drake, Pamela

2017-01-01

The exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) in the mining industry is a recognized occupational hazard. The assessment and monitoring of the exposure to RCS is limited by two main factors: (1) variability of the silica percent in the mining dust and (2) lengthy off-site laboratory analysis of collected samples. The monitoring of respirable dust via traditional or real-time techniques is not adequate. A solution for on-site quantification of RCS in dust samples is being investigated by the Office of Mine Safety and Health Research, a division of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. The use of portable Fourier transform infrared analyzers in conjunction with a direct-on-filter analysis approach is proposed. The progress made so far, the necessary steps in progress, and the application of the monitoring solution to a small data set is presented. When developed, the solution will allow operators to estimate RCS immediately after sampling, resulting in timelier monitoring of RCS for self-assessment of compliance at the end of the shift, more effective engineering monitoring, and better evaluation of control technologies. PMID:26558490

Technical Report for Calculations of Atmospheric Dispersion at Onsite Locations for Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levin, Alan; Chaves, Chris

2015-04-04

The Department of Energy (DOE) has performed an evaluation of the technical bases for the default value for the atmospheric dispersion parameter χ/Q. This parameter appears in the calculation of radiological dose at the onsite receptor location (co-located worker at 100 meters) in safety analysis of DOE nuclear facilities. The results of the calculation are then used to determine whether safety significant engineered controls should be established to prevent and/or mitigate the event causing the release of hazardous material. An evaluation of methods for calculation of the dispersion of potential chemical releases for the purpose of estimating the chemical exposuremore » at the co-located worker location was also performed. DOE’s evaluation consisted of: (a) a review of the regulatory basis for the default χ/Q dispersion parameter; (b) an analysis of this parameter’s sensitivity to various factors that affect the dispersion of radioactive material; and (c) performance of additional independent calculations to assess the appropriate use of the default χ/Q value.« less

Factors predictive of survival after stapler hepatectomy of hepatocellular carcinoma: a multivariate, single-center analysis.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Katrin; Müller-Bütow, Verena; Franz, Clemens; Hinz, Ulf; Longerich, Thomas; Büchler, Markus W; Schemmer, Peter

2014-02-01

New technical devices for hepatic parenchymal transection have improved perioperative safety and patient survival. The aim of the present study was to determine the oncological outcome after stapler hepatectomy in patients with HCC. Data of 95 patients who underwent stapler hepatectomy for HCC between 2001 and 2011 were analyzed retrospectively regarding clinical safety of the procedure and predictive factors for survial. Thirty-nine minor (≤2 segments) and 56 major (≥3 segments) hepatic resections were performed. The median survival was 47.5 months, after 36 months follow-up. Low grading, tumors ≥5 cm, multiple nodules and liver cirrhosis were predictors of decreased overall survival using multivariate analysis with hazard ratio(HR)=2.62, 2.41, 2.05, and 1.92 respectively. An estimated intra-operative blood loss of ≥1.2l was inversely correlated to disease free survival (HR=1.96). Stapler hepatectomy is a safe procedure in patients with HCC. Substantial intraoperative blood loss and the presence of cirrhosis independently predict the overall probability of patient survival. Intraoperative blood loss directly impacts HCC recurrence.

Tyre-road grip coefficient assessment - Part II: online estimation using instrumented vehicle, extended Kalman filter, and neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luque, Pablo; Mántaras, Daniel A.; Fidalgo, Eloy; Álvarez, Javier; Riva, Paolo; Girón, Pablo; Compadre, Diego; Ferran, Jordi

2013-12-01

The main objective of this work is to determine the limit of safe driving conditions by identifying the maximal friction coefficient in a real vehicle. The study will focus on finding a method to determine this limit before reaching the skid, which is valuable information in the context of traffic safety. Since it is not possible to measure the friction coefficient directly, it will be estimated using the appropriate tools in order to get the most accurate information. A real vehicle is instrumented to collect information of general kinematics and steering tie-rod forces. A real-time algorithm is developed to estimate forces and aligning torque in the tyres using an extended Kalman filter and neural networks techniques. The methodology is based on determining the aligning torque; this variable allows evaluation of the behaviour of the tyre. It transmits interesting information from the tyre-road contact and can be used to predict the maximal tyre grip and safety margin. The maximal grip coefficient is estimated according to a knowledge base, extracted from computer simulation of a high detailed three-dimensional model, using Adams® software. The proposed methodology is validated and applied to real driving conditions, in which maximal grip and safety margin are properly estimated.

Probability based remaining capacity estimation using data-driven and neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Chen, Zonghai

2016-05-01

Since large numbers of lithium-ion batteries are composed in pack and the batteries are complex electrochemical devices, their monitoring and safety concerns are key issues for the applications of battery technology. An accurate estimation of battery remaining capacity is crucial for optimization of the vehicle control, preventing battery from over-charging and over-discharging and ensuring the safety during its service life. The remaining capacity estimation of a battery includes the estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-energy (SOE). In this work, a probability based adaptive estimator is presented to obtain accurate and reliable estimation results for both SOC and SOE. For the SOC estimation, an n ordered RC equivalent circuit model is employed by combining an electrochemical model to obtain more accurate voltage prediction results. For the SOE estimation, a sliding window neural network model is proposed to investigate the relationship between the terminal voltage and the model inputs. To verify the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model and estimation algorithm, experiments under different dynamic operation current profiles are performed on the commercial 1665130-type lithium-ion batteries. The results illustrate that accurate and robust estimation can be obtained by the proposed method.

Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea.

PubMed

Washington, Simon; Oh, Jutaek

2006-03-01

Transportation professionals are sometimes required to make difficult transportation safety investment decisions in the face of uncertainty. In particular, an engineer may be expected to choose among an array of technologies and/or countermeasures to remediate perceived safety problems when: (1) little information is known about the countermeasure effects on safety; (2) information is known but from different regions, states, or countries where a direct generalization may not be appropriate; (3) where the technologies and/or countermeasures are relatively untested, or (4) where costs prohibit the full and careful testing of each of the candidate countermeasures via before-after studies. The importance of an informed and well-considered decision based on the best possible engineering knowledge and information is imperative due to the potential impact on the numbers of human injuries and deaths that may result from these investments. This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to "stated preference" methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain 'best' estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

14 CFR 417.231 - Collision avoidance analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Collision avoidance analysis. 417.231..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.231 Collision avoidance analysis. (a) General. A flight safety analysis must include a collision avoidance analysis that...

A polynomial chaos approach to the analysis of vehicle dynamics under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kewlani, Gaurav; Crawford, Justin; Iagnemma, Karl

2012-05-01

The ability of ground vehicles to quickly and accurately analyse their dynamic response to a given input is critical to their safety and efficient autonomous operation. In field conditions, significant uncertainty is associated with terrain and/or vehicle parameter estimates, and this uncertainty must be considered in the analysis of vehicle motion dynamics. Here, polynomial chaos approaches that explicitly consider parametric uncertainty during modelling of vehicle dynamics are presented. They are shown to be computationally more efficient than the standard Monte Carlo scheme, and experimental results compared with the simulation results performed on ANVEL (a vehicle simulator) indicate that the method can be utilised for efficient and accurate prediction of vehicle motion in realistic scenarios.

eMolTox: prediction of molecular toxicity with confidence.

PubMed

Ji, Changge; Svensson, Fredrik; Zoufir, Azedine; Bender, Andreas

2018-03-07

In this work we present eMolTox, a web server for the prediction of potential toxicity associated with a given molecule. 174 toxicology-related in vitro/vivo experimental datasets were used for model construction and Mondrian conformal prediction was used to estimate the confidence of the resulting predictions. Toxic substructure analysis is also implemented in eMolTox. eMolTox predicts and displays a wealth of information of potential molecular toxicities for safety analysis in drug development. The eMolTox Server is freely available for use on the web at http://xundrug.cn/moltox. chicago.ji@gmail.com or ab454@cam.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

The Impact of Patient Safety Training on Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Residents' Attitudes and Knowledge: A Mixed Method Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buhrow, Suzanne

2013-01-01

It is estimated that in the United States, more than 40,000 patients are injured each day because of preventable medical errors. Patient safety experts and graduate medical education accreditation leaders recognize that medical education reform must include the integration of safety training focused on error causation, system engineering, and…

Human papillomavirus vaccine and demyelinating diseases-A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mouchet, Julie; Salvo, Francesco; Raschi, Emanuel; Poluzzi, Elisabetta; Antonazzo, Ippazio Cosimo; De Ponti, Fabrizio; Bégaud, Bernard

2018-06-01

Approved in 2006, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines were initially targeted for girls aged 9-14 years. Although the safety of these vaccines has been monitored through post-licensure surveillance programmes, cases of neurological events have been reported worldwide. The present study aimed to assess the risk of developing demyelination after HPV immunization by meta-analysing risk estimates from pharmacoepidemiologic studies. A systematic review was conducted in Medline, Embase, ISI Web of Science and the Cochrane Library from inception to 10 May 2017, without language restriction. Only observational studies including a control group were retained. Study selection was performed by two independent reviewers with disagreements solved through discussion. This meta-analysis was performed using a generic inverse variance random-effect model. Outcomes of interest included a broad category of central demyelination, multiple sclerosis (MS), optic neuritis (ON), and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), each being considered independently. Heterogeneity was investigated; sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed when necessary. In parallel, post-licensure safety studies were considered for a qualitative review. This study followed the PRISMA statement and the MOOSE reporting guideline. Of the 2,863 references identified, 11 articles were selected for meta-analysis. No significant association emerged between HPV vaccination and central demyelination, the pooled odds ratio being 0.96 [95% CI 0.77-1.20], with a moderate but non-significant heterogeneity (I 2  = 29%). Similar results were found for MS and ON. Sensitivity analyses did not alter our conclusions. Findings from qualitative review of 14 safety studies concluded in an absence of a relevant signal. Owing to limited data on GBS, no meta-analysis was performed for this outcome. This study strongly supports the absence of association between HPV vaccines and central demyelination. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences in emergency colorectal surgery in Medicaid and uninsured patients by hospital safety net status.

PubMed

Bradley, Cathy J; Dahman, Bassam; Sabik, Lindsay M

2015-02-01

We examined whether safety net hospitals reduce the likelihood of emergency colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery in uninsured and Medicaid-insured patients. If these patients have better access to care through safety net providers, they should be less likely to undergo emergency resection relative to similar patients at non- safety net hospitals. Using population-based data, we estimated the relationship between safety net hospitals, patient insurance status, and emergency CRC surgery. We extracted inpatient admission data from the Virginia Health Information discharge database and matched them to the Virginia Cancer Registry for patients aged 21 to 64 years who underwent a CRC resection between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2005 (n = 5488). We differentiated between medically defined emergencies and those that originated in the emergency department (ED). For each definition of emergency surgery, we estimated the linear probability models of the effects of being treated at a safety net hospital on the probability of having an emergency resection. Safety net hospitals reduce emergency surgeries among uninsured and Medicaid CRC patients. When defining an emergency resection as those that involved an ED visit, these patients were 15 to 20 percentage points less likely to have an emergency resection when treated in a safety net hospital. Our results suggest that these hospitals provide a benefit, most likely through the access they afford to timely and appropriate care, to uninsured and Medicaid-insured patients relative to hospitals without a safety net mission.

Investigation of Thermophysical Parameters Properties for Enhancing Overpressure Mechanism Estimation. Case Study: Miri Area, West Baram Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adha, Kurniawan; Yusoff, Wan Ismail Wan; Almanna Lubis, Luluan

2017-10-01

Determining the pore pressure data and overpressure zone is a compulsory part of oil and gas exploration in which the data can enhance the safety with profit and preventing the drilling hazards. Investigation of thermophysical parameters such as temperature and thermal conductivity can enhance the pore pressure estimation for overpressure mechanism determination. Since those parameters are dependent on rock properties, it may reflect the changes on the column of thermophysical parameters when there is abnormally in pore pressure. The study was conducted in “MRI 1” well offshore Sarawak, where a new approach method designed to determine the overpressure generation. The study was insisted the contribution of thermophysical parameters for supporting the velocity analysis method, petrophysical analysis were done in these studies. Four thermal facies were identified along the well. The overpressure developed below the thermal facies 4, where the pressure reached 38 Mpa and temperature was increasing significantly. The velocity and the thermal conductivity cross plots shows a linear relationship since the both parameters mainly are the function of the rock compaction. When the rock more compact, the particles were brought closer into contact and making the sound wave going faster while the thermal conductivity were increasing. In addition, the increment of temperature and high heat flow indicated the presence of fluid expansion mechanism. Since the shale sonic velocity and density analysis were the common methods in overpressure mechanism and pore pressure estimation. As the addition parameters for determining overpressure zone, the presence of thermophysical analysis was enhancing the current method, where the current method was the single function of velocity analysis. The presence of thermophysical analysis will improve the understanding in overpressure mechanism determination as the new input parameters. Thus, integrated of thermophysical technique and velocity analysis are important parameters in investigating the overpressure mechanisms and pore pressure estimation during oil and gas exploitation in the future.

On-Line Safe Flight Envelope Determination for Impaired Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lombaerts, Thomas; Schuet, Stefan; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John

2015-01-01

The design and simulation of an on-line algorithm which estimates the safe maneuvering envelope of aircraft is discussed in this paper. The trim envelope is estimated using probabilistic methods and efficient high-fidelity model based computations of attainable equilibrium sets. From this trim envelope, a robust reachability analysis provides the maneuverability limitations of the aircraft through an optimal control formulation. Both envelope limits are presented to the flight crew on the primary flight display. In the results section, scenarios are considered where this adaptive algorithm is capable of computing online changes to the maneuvering envelope due to impairment. Furthermore, corresponding updates to display features on the primary flight display are provided to potentially inform the flight crew of safety critical envelope alterations caused by the impairment.

Failure Assessment of Stainless Steel and Titanium Brazed Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flom, Yury A.

2012-01-01

Following successful application of Coulomb-Mohr and interaction equations for evaluation of safety margins in Albemet 162 brazed joints, two additional base metal/filler metal systems were investigated. Specimens consisting of stainless steel brazed with silver-base filler metal and titanium brazed with 1100 Al alloy were tested to failure under combined action of tensile, shear, bending and torsion loads. Finite Element Analysis (FEA), hand calculations and digital image comparison (DIC) techniques were used to estimate failure stresses and construct Failure Assessment Diagrams (FAD). This study confirms that interaction equation R(sub sigma) + R(sub tau) = 1, where R(sub sigma) and R(sub t u) are normal and shear stress ratios, can be used as conservative lower bound estimate of the failure criterion in stainless steel and titanium brazed joints.

Safety Study: Personal Watercraft Safety

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-05-01

Personal watercraft (PWC) are a type of recreational boat that has become increasingly popular in recent years. Manufacturers estimate that about 200,000 PWC are sold each year and that more than 1 million are in current operation. Although the overa...

Frequency of target crashes for IntelliDrive safety systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-01

This report estimates the frequency of different crash types that would potentially be addressed by various categories of Intelligent Transportation Systems as part of the IntelliDriveSM safety systems program. Crash types include light-vehicle crash...

75 FR 5844 - Agency Information Collection Activity Seeking OMB Approval

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-04

..., vol. 74, no. 199, page 53315. This rule set safety and oversight rules for a broad variety of...: An estimated 30,320.6 hours annually. Abstract: This rule set safety and oversight rules for a broad...

Perceived driving safety and estimated blood alcohol concentration (BAC) the morning after drinking amongst young Australians attending a music festival: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Fernando, Mario; Buckland, Johanna; Melwani, Prashina; Tent, Vanessa; Preston, Philip; Pit, Sabrina Winona

2018-06-20

Alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes remain a significant and costly public health issue globally. Particularly young people are over-represented in these incidents. This study set out to explore the factors that influence individuals' perceptions of their safety to drive, and the factors related to a change in intention to drive. Four hundred nine young people aged 18-40 attending an Australian multi-day music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, alcohol use, amount of sleep obtained the previous night, intention to drive, number of passengers, perceived safety to drive, estimated BAC (measured in g/210 L) and change in intention to drive following a BAC measurement via breathalysers. Statistical analyses involved univariate tests of association and multivariate logistic regression. Only one in five participants felt they were completely safe to drive. Males self-rated as less safe to drive than females. Multivariate analyses showed that licence class, sleep hours, units of alcohol consumed in the past 24 h and estimated BAC had statistically significant associations with driving safety perception. Participants who slept for greater than seven hours the previous night were three times more likely to feel safe to drive than those who had less than five hours of sleep (OR 3.05 (95% CI 1.25, 7.45)). Forty-one percent of participants changed their intended time of driving after having their BAC measured with a breathalyser. There was a statistically significant association between changing the intention to drive to a later time with an increase in each extra passenger in a participant's vehicle (OR 1.53 (95% CI 1.02, 2.30)). Whilst concerning behaviours relating to high-risk alcohol consumption were found, the study uncovered promising findings about young peoples' perceptions of their safety to drive, and their propensity to change their driving intention. The strong correlation between hours of sleep, estimated BAC, units of alcohol consumed and license class with perception of driving safety suggests an increased awareness among young people and promotion of these factors may potentially improve actual driver safety. The influence of number of passengers on intention to drive later is another important consideration for future road safety research or promotion.

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar; Korkmaz, Ersin

2017-06-01

Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.

Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

PubMed

Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

2011-11-01

Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The risk of developing a work disability across the adulthood years.

PubMed

Rank, Mark R; Hirschl, Thomas A

2014-04-01

Work disability has implications for individual health, national health care expenditures, economic productivity, and the social safety net. Knowledge about population dynamics and risk factors associated with work disability are not delineated by cross-sectional research. In this paper the authors estimate, for the first time, the prospective lifetime risk that a head of household will report a work disability. Using forty years of longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we estimate the lifetime risk of developing a work disability and conduct a logistic regression analysis to examine personal characteristics that increase the likelihood of a self-reported work disability. Life table methods are used to calculate lifetime prevalence, and to compute covariate effects. Between the ages of 25 and 60, over half (54.6%) of U.S. household heads will self-report a work disability, and approximately one quarter (24.1%) will self-report a severe work disability. Persons with income below 150% of the federal poverty level, or lower educational attainment, have an increased likelihood of reporting a work disability. This study finds that more than half of U.S. household heads will self-report a work disability, which is a higher prevalence than in existing cross-sectional estimates. The social context for this finding is that work disability is a major driver of spending on health care services and the social safety net. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.

2014-02-01

At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire,more » and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.« less

Diagnosing turbulence for research aircraft safety using open source toolkits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, T. J.; Guy, N.

Open source software toolkits have been developed and applied to diagnose in-cloud turbulence in the vicinity of Earth science research aircraft, via analysis of ground-based Doppler radar data. Based on multiple retrospective analyses, these toolkits show promise for detecting significant turbulence well prior to cloud penetrations by research aircraft. A pilot study demonstrated the ability to provide mission scientists turbulence estimates in near real time during an actual field campaign, and thus these toolkits are recommended for usage in future cloud-penetrating aircraft field campaigns.

Analysis of factors influencing organic fruit and vegetable purchasing in Istanbul, Turkey.

PubMed

Oraman, Yasemin; Unakitan, Gökhan

2010-01-01

This article examines the influences on the purchasing decisions of fruit and vegetable consumers and presents findings from a survey conducted with 385 respondents living in urban areas in Istanbul, Turkey. It uses a binary logistic model to estimate factor effects in organic fruit and vegetable purchasing in Turkey. The results indicate that concern for human health and safety is a key factor that influences consumer preferences for organic food. Findings will help organic product suppliers understand the key factors influencing consumer purchasing and consumption behaviors.

Study of application of ERTS-A imagery to fracture-related mine safety hazards in the coal mining industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wier, C. E.; Wobber, F. J.; Russell, O. R.; Martin, K. R. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Mined land reclamation analysis procedures developed within the Indiana portion of the Illinois Coal Basin were independently tested in Ohio utilizing 1:80,000 scale enlargements of ERTS-1 image 1029-15361-7 (dated August 21, 1972). An area in Belmont County was selected for analysis due to the extensive surface mining and the different degrees of reclamation occurring in this area. Contour mining in this area provided the opportunity to extend techniques developed for analysis of relatively flat mining areas in Indiana to areas of rolling topography in Ohio. The analysts had no previous experience in the area. Field investigations largely confirmed office analysis results although in a few areas estimates of vegetation percentages were found to be too high. In one area this error approximated 25%. These results suggest that systematic ERTS-1 analysis in combination with selective field sampling can provide reliable vegetation percentage estimates in excess of 25% accuracy with minimum equipment investment and training. The utility of ERTS-1 for practical and reasonably reliable update of mined lands information for groups with budget limitations is suggested. Many states can benefit from low cost updates using ERTS-1 imagery from public sources.

Road trauma among young Australians: Implementing policy to reduce road deaths and serious injury.

PubMed

Walker, Clara; Thompson, Jason; Stevenson, Mark

2017-05-19

The objective of this study was to estimate the likely reduction in road trauma associated with the implementation of effective interventions to reduce road trauma among young Australians. A desktop evaluation was conducted to model the likely reduction in road trauma (deaths and serious injuries resulting in hospitalization) among young people aged 17-24 years residing in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. Potential interventions were identified using a rapid literature review and assigned a score based on evidence of effectiveness and implementation feasibility with the 3 highest scoring interventions included in the modeling. Likely reduction in road trauma was estimated by applying the average risk reduction effect sizes for each intervention to baseline risk (passenger or driver death or serious injury per 100,000 population) of road trauma for young Australians. Point estimates were calculated for the potential number of deaths and serious injuries averted in each state and per 100,000 population, with a one-way sensitivity analysis conducted using uncertainty ranges identified. Peer passenger and night driving restrictions as well as improved vehicle safety measures had the greatest potential to reduce road trauma. Peer passenger restrictions could avert 14 (range: 5-24) and 24 (range: 8-41) hospitalizations per year in Queensland and New South Wales, respectively, and night driving restrictions could avert 17 (range: 7-26), 28 (range: 12-45), and 13 (range: 6-21) hospitalizations annually in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. These interventions reduced fatalities by less than 1 death annually in each state. Improved vehicle safety measures could avert 0-3, 0-4, and 0-3 deaths and 3-91, 4-156, and 2-75 hospitalizations in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. Key elements of graduated licensing (peer passenger and night driving restrictions) along with vehicle safety interventions offer modest but practically significant reductions in road trauma for young Australians. State governments need to revise current legislation to ensure that these reductions in road trauma can be realized.

Understanding road safety in Kenya: views of matatu drivers.

PubMed

Raynor, Nicolas J; Mirzoev, Tolib

2014-09-01

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are estimated to cause 1.3 million deaths and 20-50 million injuries worldwide. Road safety is a challenge in Kenya with causes being multi-factorial. Matatus (minibuses) are involved in a large proportion of accidents. A literature review was completed to identify key issues and refine the scope of the study. The fieldwork included 20 semi-structured interviews with matatu drivers. All participants were male, with driving experience of 1-20 years. Thematic framework was used for analysis. Some unstructured observations on different road users and their behaviours were also recorded. Literature showed that the causes of RTAs in Kenya are multi-factorial, but that human factors play a large part. There is also an evidence gap concerning matatu drivers, who are key stakeholders in road safety. Fieldwork showed that the matatu industry creates financial pressures on drivers and an excessive level of competition, leading to dangerous driving. Corruption of traffic police appears to be a major barrier to improving road safety, as road safety legislation is not enforced, and bribery has become the cultural norm. The general public, including passengers and private vehicles owners, also cause problems by failing to understand their role in road safety and placing the blame on others. The key policy implication for improving road safety in Kenya is seeking measures to ensure responsibility by all road users through awareness raising in the short-term and reforming the matatu industry and addressing the root causes of corruption in the longer term. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Criterion for Estimation of Ecological Safety of Objects of Urban Transport Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakaeva, N. V.; Chernyaeva, I. V.

2017-11-01

A new approach to assess the ecological safety of the urban environment including urban transport facilities is being considered. The chemical and acoustic pollution of the environment from the impact of the urban transport construction objects is analyzed. The description of the sustainable state concept and ecological balance of the urban environment is given. A criterion for assessing environmental safety based on a comprehensive indicator of the city’s biosphere compatibility was proposed. The scale of environmental safety assessments is constructed.

The EUCLID/V1 Integrated Code for Safety Assessment of Liquid Metal Cooled Fast Reactors. Part 1: Basic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosunova, N. A.

2018-05-01

The article describes the basic models included in the EUCLID/V1 integrated code intended for safety analysis of liquid metal (sodium, lead, and lead-bismuth) cooled fast reactors using fuel rods with a gas gap and pellet dioxide, mixed oxide or nitride uranium-plutonium fuel under normal operation, under anticipated operational occurrences and accident conditions by carrying out interconnected thermal-hydraulic, neutronics, and thermal-mechanical calculations. Information about the Russian and foreign analogs of the EUCLID/V1 integrated code is given. Modeled objects, equation systems in differential form solved in each module of the EUCLID/V1 integrated code (the thermal-hydraulic, neutronics, fuel rod analysis module, and the burnup and decay heat calculation modules), the main calculated quantities, and also the limitations on application of the code are presented. The article also gives data on the scope of functions performed by the integrated code's thermal-hydraulic module, using which it is possible to describe both one- and twophase processes occurring in the coolant. It is shown that, owing to the availability of the fuel rod analysis module in the integrated code, it becomes possible to estimate the performance of fuel rods in different regimes of the reactor operation. It is also shown that the models implemented in the code for calculating neutron-physical processes make it possible to take into account the neutron field distribution over the fuel assembly cross section as well as other features important for the safety assessment of fast reactors.

Health technology assessment of non-invasive interventions for weight loss and body shape in Iran

PubMed Central

Nojomi, Marzieh; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Velayati, Ashraf; Naghibzadeh-Tahami, Ahmad; Dadgostar, Haleh; Ghorabi, Gholamhossein; Moradi-Joo, Mohammad; Yaghoubi, Mohsen

2016-01-01

Background: The burden of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases is increasing in Iran, and prevention and treatment strategies are needed to address this problem. The aim of this study was to determine the outcome, cost, safety and cost-consequence of non-invasive weight loss interventions in Iran. Methods: We performed a systematic review to compare non-invasive interventions (cryolipolysis and radiofrequency/ ultrasonic cavitation) with semi-invasive (lipolysis) and invasive (liposuction). A sensitive electronic searching was done to find available interventional studies. Reduction of abdomen circumference (cm), reduction in fat layer thickness (%) and weight reduction (kg) were outcomes of efficacy. Meta-analysis with random models was used for pooling efficacy estimates among studies with the same follow-up duration. Average cost per intervention was estimated based on the capital, maintenance, staff, consumable and purchase costs. Results: Of 3,111 studies identified in our reviews, 13 studies assessed lipolysis, 10 cryolipolysis and 8 considered radiofrequency. Nine studies with the same follow-up duration in three different outcome group were included in meta-analysis. Radiofrequency showed an overall pooled estimate of 2.7 cm (95% CI; 2.3-3.1) of mean reduction in circumference of abdomen after intervention. Pooled estimate of reduction in fat layer thickness was 78% (95% CI; 73%-83%) after Lipolysis and a pooled estimate of weight loss was 3.01 kg (95% CI; 2.3-3.6) after lipousuction. The cost analysis revealed no significant differences between the costs of these interventions. Conclusion: The present study showed that non-invasive interventions appear to have better clinical efficacy, specifically in the body shape measurement, and less cost compared to invasive intervention (liposuction) PMID:27390717

Motor vehicle safety : NHTSA's ability to detect and recall defective replacement crash parts is limited

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the federal agency responsible for reducing accidents, deaths, and injuries resulting from motor vehicle crashes on the nation's highways, estimates that over 6 million automobile accidents ...

Advanced Reactor PSA Methodologies for System Reliability Analysis and Source Term Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, D.; Brunett, A.; Passerini, S.

Beginning in 2015, a project was initiated to update and modernize the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of the GE-Hitachi PRISM sodium fast reactor. This project is a collaboration between GE-Hitachi and Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), and funded in part by the U.S. Department of Energy. Specifically, the role of Argonne is to assess the reliability of passive safety systems, complete a mechanistic source term calculation, and provide component reliability estimates. The assessment of passive system reliability focused on the performance of the Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) and the inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms of the metal fuel core. Themore » mechanistic source term assessment attempted to provide a sequence specific source term evaluation to quantify offsite consequences. Lastly, the reliability assessment focused on components specific to the sodium fast reactor, including electromagnetic pumps, intermediate heat exchangers, the steam generator, and sodium valves and piping.« less

Extravehicular activity welding experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, J. Kevin

1989-01-01

The In-Space Technology Experiments Program (INSTEP) provides an opportunity to explore the many critical questions which can only be answered by experimentation in space. The objective of the Extravehicular Activity Welding Experiment definition project was to define the requirements for a spaceflight experiment to evaluate the feasibility of performing manual welding tasks during EVA. Consideration was given to experiment design, work station design, welding hardware design, payload integration requirements, and human factors (including safety). The results of this effort are presented. Included are the specific objectives of the flight test, details of the tasks which will generate the required data, and a description of the equipment which will be needed to support the tasks. Work station requirements are addressed as are human factors, STS integration procedures and, most importantly, safety considerations. A preliminary estimate of the cost and the schedule for completion of the experiment through flight and postflight analysis are given.

Mindfulness Meditation for Chronic Pain: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hilton, Lara; Hempel, Susanne; Ewing, Brett A; Apaydin, Eric; Xenakis, Lea; Newberry, Sydne; Colaiaco, Ben; Maher, Alicia Ruelaz; Shanman, Roberta M; Sorbero, Melony E; Maglione, Margaret A

2017-04-01

Chronic pain patients increasingly seek treatment through mindfulness meditation. This study aims to synthesize evidence on efficacy and safety of mindfulness meditation interventions for the treatment of chronic pain in adults. We conducted a systematic review on randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with meta-analyses using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method for random-effects models. Quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach. Outcomes included pain, depression, quality of life, and analgesic use. Thirty-eight RCTs met inclusion criteria; seven reported on safety. We found low-quality evidence that mindfulness meditation is associated with a small decrease in pain compared with all types of controls in 30 RCTs. Statistically significant effects were also found for depression symptoms and quality of life. While mindfulness meditation improves pain and depression symptoms and quality of life, additional well-designed, rigorous, and large-scale RCTs are needed to decisively provide estimates of the efficacy of mindfulness meditation for chronic pain.

Do you see what I see? Effects of national culture on employees' safety-related perceptions and behavior.

PubMed

Casey, Tristan W; Riseborough, Karli M; Krauss, Autumn D

2015-05-01

Growing international trade and globalization are increasing the cultural diversity of the modern workforce, which often results in migrants working under the management of foreign leadership. This change in work arrangements has important implications for occupational health and safety, as migrant workers have been found to be at an increased risk of injuries compared to their domestic counterparts. While some explanations for this discrepancy have been proposed (e.g., job differences, safety knowledge, and communication difficulties), differences in injury involvement have been found to persist even when these contextual factors are controlled for. We argue that employees' national culture may explain further variance in their safety-related perceptions and safety compliance, and investigate this through comparing the survey responses of 562 Anglo and Southern Asian workers at a multinational oil and gas company. Using structural equation modeling, we firstly established partial measurement invariance of our measures across cultural groups. Estimation of the combined sample structural model revealed that supervisor production pressure was negatively related to willingness to report errors and supervisor support, but did not predict safety compliance behavior. Supervisor safety support was positively related to both willingness to report errors and safety compliance. Next, we uncovered evidence of cultural differences in the relationships between supervisor production pressure, supervisor safety support, and willingness to report errors; of note, among Southern Asian employees the negative relationship between supervisor production pressure and willingness to report errors was stronger, and for supervisor safety support, weaker as compared to the model estimated with Anglo employees. Implications of these findings for safety management in multicultural teams within the oil and gas industry are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review of Regulatory Emphasis on Transportation Safety in the United States, 2002-2009: Public versus Private Modes.

PubMed

Waycaster, Garrett C; Matsumura, Taiki; Bilotkach, Volodymyr; Haftka, Raphael T; Kim, Nam H

2018-05-01

The U.S. Department of Transportation is responsible for implementing new safety improvements and regulations with the goal of ensuring limited funds are distributed to where they can have the greatest impact on safety. In this work, we conduct a study of new regulations and other reactions (such as recalls) to fatal accidents in several different modes of transportation implemented from 2002 to 2009. We find that in the safest modes of commercial aviation and bus transport, the amount of spending on new regulations is high in relation to the number of fatalities compared to the regulatory attention received by less safe modes of general aviation and private automobiles. Additionally, we study two major fatal accident investigations from commercial aviation and two major automotive recalls associated with fatal accidents. We find differences in the cost per expected fatality prevented for these reactions, with the airline accident investigations being more cost effective. Overall, we observe trends in both the automotive and aviation sectors that suggest that public transportation receives more regulatory attention than private transport. We also observe that the types of safety remedies utilized, regulation versus investigation, have varying levels of effectiveness in different transport modes. We suggest that these differences are indicative of increased public demand for safety in modes where a third party may be held responsible, even for those not participating in the transportation. These findings have important implications for the transportation industry, policymakers, and for estimating the public demand for safety in new transport modes. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

IT-CARES: an interactive tool for case-crossover analyses of electronic medical records for patient safety.

PubMed

Caron, Alexandre; Chazard, Emmanuel; Muller, Joris; Perichon, Renaud; Ferret, Laurie; Koutkias, Vassilis; Beuscart, Régis; Beuscart, Jean-Baptiste; Ficheur, Grégoire

2017-03-01

The significant risk of adverse events following medical procedures supports a clinical epidemiological approach based on the analyses of collections of electronic medical records. Data analytical tools might help clinical epidemiologists develop more appropriate case-crossover designs for monitoring patient safety. To develop and assess the methodological quality of an interactive tool for use by clinical epidemiologists to systematically design case-crossover analyses of large electronic medical records databases. We developed IT-CARES, an analytical tool implementing case-crossover design, to explore the association between exposures and outcomes. The exposures and outcomes are defined by clinical epidemiologists via lists of codes entered via a user interface screen. We tested IT-CARES on data from the French national inpatient stay database, which documents diagnoses and medical procedures for 170 million inpatient stays between 2007 and 2013. We compared the results of our analysis with reference data from the literature on thromboembolic risk after delivery and bleeding risk after total hip replacement. IT-CARES provides a user interface with 3 columns: (i) the outcome criteria in the left-hand column, (ii) the exposure criteria in the right-hand column, and (iii) the estimated risk (odds ratios, presented in both graphical and tabular formats) in the middle column. The estimated odds ratios were consistent with the reference literature data. IT-CARES may enhance patient safety by facilitating clinical epidemiological studies of adverse events following medical procedures. The tool's usability must be evaluated and improved in further research. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Future challenges to microbial food safety.

PubMed

Havelaar, Arie H; Brul, Stanley; de Jong, Aarieke; de Jonge, Rob; Zwietering, Marcel H; Ter Kuile, Benno H

2010-05-30

Despite significant efforts by all parties involved, there is still a considerable burden of foodborne illness, in which micro-organisms play a prominent role. Microbes can enter the food chain at different steps, are highly versatile and can adapt to the environment allowing survival, growth and production of toxic compounds. This sets them apart from chemical agents and thus their study from food toxicology. We summarize the discussions of a conference organized by the Dutch Food and Consumer Products Safety Authority and the European Food Safety Authority. The goal of the conference was to discuss new challenges to food safety that are caused by micro-organisms as well as strategies and methodologies to counter these. Management of food safety is based on generally accepted principles of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points and of Good Manufacturing Practices. However, a more pro-active, science-based approach is required, starting with the ability to predict where problems might arise by applying the risk analysis framework. Developments that may influence food safety in the future occur on different scales (from global to molecular) and in different time frames (from decades to less than a minute). This necessitates development of new risk assessment approaches, taking the impact of different drivers of change into account. We provide an overview of drivers that may affect food safety and their potential impact on foodborne pathogens and human disease risks. We conclude that many drivers may result in increased food safety risks, requiring active governmental policy setting and anticipation by food industries whereas other drivers may decrease food safety risks. Monitoring of contamination in the food chain, combined with surveillance of human illness and epidemiological investigations of outbreaks and sporadic cases continue to be important sources of information. New approaches in human illness surveillance include the use of molecular markers for improved outbreak detection and source attribution, sero-epidemiology and disease burden estimation. Current developments in molecular techniques make it possible to rapidly assemble information on the genome of various isolates of microbial species of concern. Such information can be used to develop new tracking and tracing methods, and to investigate the behavior of micro-organisms under environmentally relevant stress conditions. These novel tools and insight need to be applied to objectives for food safety strategies, as well as to models that predict microbial behavior. In addition, the increasing complexity of the global food systems necessitates improved communication between all parties involved: scientists, risk assessors and risk managers, as well as consumers. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pharmacology-based toxicity assessment: towards quantitative risk prediction in humans.

PubMed

Sahota, Tarjinder; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2016-05-01

Despite ongoing efforts to better understand the mechanisms underlying safety and toxicity, ~30% of the attrition in drug discovery and development is still due to safety concerns. Changes in current practice regarding the assessment of safety and toxicity are required to reduce late stage attrition and enable effective development of novel medicines. This review focuses on the implications of empirical evidence generation for the evaluation of safety and toxicity during drug development. A shift in paradigm is needed to (i) ensure that pharmacological concepts are incorporated into the evaluation of safety and toxicity; (ii) facilitate the integration of historical evidence and thereby the translation of findings across species as well as between in vitro and in vivo experiments and (iii) promote the use of experimental protocols tailored to address specific safety and toxicity questions. Based on historical examples, we highlight the challenges for the early characterisation of the safety profile of a new molecule and discuss how model-based methodologies can be applied for the design and analysis of experimental protocols. Issues relative to the scientific rationale are categorised and presented as a hierarchical tree describing the decision-making process. Focus is given to four different areas, namely, optimisation, translation, analytical construct and decision criteria. From a methodological perspective, the relevance of quantitative methods for estimation and extrapolation of risk from toxicology and safety pharmacology experimental protocols, such as points of departure and potency, is discussed in light of advancements in population and Bayesian modelling techniques (e.g. non-linear mixed effects modelling). Their use in the evaluation of pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships (PKPD) has enabled great insight into the dose rationale for medicines in humans, both in terms of efficacy and adverse events. Comparable benefits can be anticipated for the assessment of safety and toxicity profile of novel molecules. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the UK Environmental Mutagen Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impacts of Bicycle Infrastructure in Mid-Sized Cities (IBIMS): protocol for a natural experiment study in three Canadian cities

PubMed Central

Winters, Meghan; Branion-Calles, Michael; Therrien, Suzanne; Fuller, Daniel; Gauvin, Lise; Whitehurst, David G T; Nelson, Trisalyn

2018-01-01

Introduction Bicycling is promoted as a transportation and population health strategy globally. Yet bicycling has low uptake in North America (1%–2% of trips) compared with European bicycling cities (15%–40% of trips) and shows marked sex and age trends. Safety concerns due to collisions with motor vehicles are primary barriers. To attract the broader population to bicycling, many cities are making investments in bicycle infrastructure. These interventions hold promise for improving population health given the potential for increased physical activity and improved safety, but such outcomes have been largely unstudied. In 2016, the City of Victoria, Canada, committed to build a connected network of infrastructure that separates bicycles from motor vehicles, designed to attract people of ‘all ages and abilities’ to bicycling. This natural experiment study examines the impacts of the City of Victoria’s investment in a bicycle network on active travel and safety outcomes. The specific objectives are to (1) estimate changes in active travel, perceived safety and bicycle safety incidents; (2) analyse spatial inequities in access to bicycle infrastructure and safety incidents; and (3) assess health-related economic benefits. Methods and analysis The study is in three Canadian cities (intervention: Victoria; comparison: Kelowna, Halifax). We will administer population-based surveys in 2016, 2018 and 2021 (1000 people/city). The primary outcome is the proportion of people reporting bicycling. Secondary outcomes are perceived safety and bicycle safety incidents. Spatial analyses will compare the distribution of bicycle infrastructure and bicycle safety incidents across neighbourhoods and across time. We will also calculate the economic benefits of bicycling using WHO’s Health Economic Assessment Tool. Ethics and dissemination This study received approval from the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics (study no. 2016s0401). Findings will be disseminated via a website, presentations to stakeholders, at academic conferences and through peer-reviewed journal articles. PMID:29358440

The safety of high-hazard water infrastructures in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Hossain, F.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics have not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering practice and modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to five statistically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs, producing an ensemble of PMP estimates in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) during the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified against the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50%±30% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability through increased sea surface temperature, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, PMP exhibits higher internal variability. Thus long-time records of high-quality data in both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.

Awareness and implementation of nine World Health Organization's patient safety solutions among three groups of healthcare workers in Oman.

PubMed

Al-Mandhari, Ahmed; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim; Al-Adawi, Samir; Al-Barwani, Samra; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan

2016-09-30

The pressing need to reduce burgeoning poor safety measures affecting millions worldwide has alerted World Health Assembly to set-up mechanisms to increase patient safety. In response to such needs, World Health Organization (WHO) formulated nine life-saving patient safety solutions that would be essential to lower reduce healthcare-related harm. There is a paucity of research examining awareness of such nine patient safety solutions. This study has been designed and conducted to compare self-estimated awareness and practice of the World Health Organization's nine "Life-saving Patient Safety Solutions" aide memoirs among different groups of healthcare workers in Oman. All nationwide healthcare workers (nurses, physicians and allied health professionals) in hospitals and primary healthcare under the auspice of Ministry of Health were the target population of this survey. Participants were selected by a simple, systematic random sampling from the list of staff in each representative institution. The study was conducted from November 2012 to February 2013. A total of 800 participants (590 from health centers and 210 from hospitals) were invited to participate in this study. A total number of 763 healthcare professionals consented to participate. The overall response rate was 95 % with the majority being nurses, female staff and who had an average of more than 4 years of experience. Overall, 85 % of the participants self-estimated awareness of the nine life-saving patient safety solutions showed the nurses being the most aware, followed by physicians with the allied health professionals showing suboptimal awareness. The primary healthcare center staff demonstrated higher awareness compared to hospital staff. There was a complex relationship between health professional's age, place of work and awareness and practice. This study lays the foundation for international comparisons of self-estimated awareness and practice towards nine patient safety solutions. The data from Oman indicates the need for more attention to be directed towards heightening awareness and practice of the nine patient safety solutions.

Comprehensive Safety Analysis 2010 Safety Measurement System (SMS) Methodology, Version 2.1 Revised December 2010

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-01

This report documents the Safety Measurement System (SMS) methodology developed to support the Comprehensive Safety Analysis 2010 (CSA 2010) Initiative for the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). The SMS is one of the major tools for...

Whole-body vibration and the risk of low back pain and sciatica: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Burström, Lage; Nilsson, Tohr; Wahlström, Jens

2015-05-01

The aim of this systematic literature review was to evaluate the association between whole-body vibration (WBV) and low back pain (LBP) and sciatica with special attention given to exposure estimates. Moreover, the aim was to estimate the magnitude of such an association using meta-analysis and to compare our findings with previous reviews. The authors systematically searched the PubMed (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda), Nioshtic2 (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH, Morgantown), and ScienceDirect (Elsevier, Amsterdam) databases for records up to December 31, 2013. Two of the authors independently assessed studies to determine their eligibility, validity, and possible risk of bias. The literature search gave a total of 306 references out of which 28 studies were reviewed and 20 were included in the meta-analysis. Exposure to WBV was associated with increased prevalence of LBP and sciatica [pooled odds ratio (OR) = 2.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-2.91 and OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.38-2.67, respectively]. Workers exposed to high vibration levels had a pooled risk estimate of 1.5 for both outcomes when compared with workers exposed to low levels of vibration. The results also indicate that some publication bias could have occurred especially for sciatica. This review shows that there is scientific evidence that exposure to WBV increases the risk of LBP and sciatica.

Overview of Energy Systems` safety analysis report programs. Safety Analysis Report Update Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-03-01

The primary purpose of an Safety Analysis Report (SAR) is to provide a basis for judging the adequacy of a facility`s safety. The SAR documents the safety analyses that systematically identify the hazards posed by the facility, analyze the consequences and risk of potential accidents, and describe hazard control measures that protect the health and safety of the public and employees. In addition, some SARs document, as Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs, which include Technical Specifications and Operational Safety Requirements), technical and administrative requirements that ensure the facility is operated within prescribed safety limits. SARs also provide conveniently summarized information thatmore » may be used to support procedure development, training, inspections, and other activities necessary to facility operation. This ``Overview of Energy Systems Safety Analysis Report Programs`` Provides an introduction to the programs and processes used in the development and maintenance of the SARs. It also summarizes some of the uses of the SARs within Energy Systems and DOE.« less

Software Safety Progress in NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radley, Charles F.

1995-01-01

NASA has developed guidelines for development and analysis of safety-critical software. These guidelines have been documented in a Guidebook for Safety Critical Software Development and Analysis. The guidelines represent a practical 'how to' approach, to assist software developers and safety analysts in cost effective methods for software safety. They provide guidance in the implementation of the recent NASA Software Safety Standard NSS-1740.13 which was released as 'Interim' version in June 1994, scheduled for formal adoption late 1995. This paper is a survey of the methods in general use, resulting in the NASA guidelines for safety critical software development and analysis.

Burden of road traffic injuries related to delays in implementing safety belt laws in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

PubMed

Martin, Aurélie; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Salmi, L Rachid

2018-02-28

Delayed implementation of effective road safety policies must be considered when quantifying the avoidable part of the fatal and nonfatal injuries burden. We sought to assess the avoidable part of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to road traffic injuries related to delays in implementing road safety laws in low- and lower-middle-income countries. We chose one country for each of the regions of the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank (WB) country income levels. We used freely available data sets (WHO, International Traffic Safety Data and Analysis Group, the WB). Delays in implementation were calculated until 2013, from the year mandatory use of safety belts by motor vehicle front seat occupants was first introduced worldwide. We used life expectancy tables and age groups as social values in the DALY calculation model. From the estimated total burden, avoidable DALYs were calculated using estimates of the effectiveness of seat belt laws on fatal and nonfatal injuries combined, as extracted from published international reviews of evidence. From the reference year 1972, implementation delays varied from 27 years (Uzbekistan) to 41 years in Bolivia (no seat belt law as of 2013). During delays, total absolute numbers of DALYs lost due to road traffic injuries reached 8,462,099 in Nigeria, 7,203,570 in Morocco, 4,695,500 in Uzbekistan, 3,866,391 in Cambodia, 3,253,359 in Bolivia, and 3,128,721 in Sri Lanka. Using effectiveness estimates ranging from 3 to 20% reduction, the avoidable burden of road traffic injuries for car occupants was highest in Uzbekistan (avoidable part from 1.2 to 10.4%) and in Morocco (avoidable part from 1.5 to 12.3%). In countries where users of public transport and pedestrians were the most affected by the burden, the avoidable parts ranged from 0.5 to 4.4% (Nigeria) and from 0.5 to 3.4% (Bolivia). Burden of road traffic injuries mostly affected motorcyclists in Sri Lanka and Cambodia where the avoidable parts were less than 2% in both countries. In all selected countries, burden of traffic injuries mostly affected men (about 80%) as well as young people (15-34 years). Despite limited data availability in low- and middle-income countries, the avoidable part of the burden related to delayed intervention is measurable. These results can be used to convince countries to avoid delaying the provision of better protection to road users.

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

Safety and economic impacts of photo radar program.

PubMed

Chen, Greg

2005-12-01

Unsafe speed is one of the major traffic safety challenges facing motorized nations. In 2003, unsafe speed contributed to 31 percent of all fatal collisions, causing a loss of 13,380 lives in the United States alone. The economic impact of speeding is tremendous. According to NHTSA, the cost of unsafe speed related collisions to the American society exceeds 40 billion US dollars per year. In response, automated photo radar speed enforcement programs have been implemented in many countries. This study assesses the economic impacts of a large-scale photo radar program in British Columbia. The knowledge generated from this study could inform policy makers and project managers in making informed decisions with regard to this highly effective and efficient, yet very controversial program. This study establishes speed and safety effects of photo radar programs by summarizing two physical impact investigations in British Columbia. It then conducts a cost-benefit analysis to assess the program's economic impacts. The cost-benefit analysis takes into account both societal and funding agency's perspectives. It includes a comprehensive account of major impacts. It uses willingness to pay principle to value human lives saved and injuries avoided. It incorporates an extended sensitivity analysis to quantify the robustness of base case conclusions. The study reveals an annual net benefit of approximately 114 million in year 2001 Canadian dollars to British Columbians. The study also finds a net annual saving of over 38 million Canadian dollars for the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia (ICBC) that funded the program. These results are robust under almost all alternative scenarios tested. The only circumstance under which the net benefit of the program turns negative is when the real safety effects were one standard deviation below the estimated values, which is possible but highly unlikely. Automated photo radar traffic safety enforcement can be an effective and efficient means to manage traffic speed, reduce collisions and injuries, and combat the huge resulting economic burden to society. The cost-effectiveness of the program takes on special meaning and urgency when considering the present and future government funding constraints. The application of the program, however, should be planned and implemented with caution. Every effort should be made to focus on and to promote the program on safety improvement grounds. The program can be easily terminated because of political considerations, if the public perceives it as a cash cow to enhance government revenue.

Safety and Efficacy of Teneligliptin in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Impaired Renal Function: Interim Report from Post-marketing Surveillance.

PubMed

Haneda, Masakazu; Kadowaki, Takashi; Ito, Hiroshi; Sasaki, Kazuyo; Hiraide, Sonoe; Ishii, Manabu; Matsukawa, Miyuki; Ueno, Makoto

2018-06-01

Teneligliptin is a novel oral dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Safety and efficacy of teneligliptin have been demonstrated in clinical studies; however, data supporting its use in patients with moderate or severe renal impairment are limited. This interim analysis of a post-marketing surveillance of teneligliptin, exploRing the long-term efficacy and safety included cardiovascUlar events in patients with type 2 diaBetes treated bY teneligliptin in the real-world (RUBY), aims to verify the long-term safety and efficacy of teneligliptin in Japanese patients with T2DM and impaired renal function. For this analysis, we used the data from case report forms of the RUBY surveillance between May 2013 and June 2017. The patients were classified into G1-G5 stages of chronic kidney disease according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at initiation of teneligliptin treatment. Safety and efficacy were evaluated in these subgroups. Patients on dialysis were also assessed. Safety was assessed from adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Glycemic control was evaluated up to 2 years after teneligliptin initiation. A total of 11,677 patients were enrolled in the surveillance and 11,425 patient case-report forms were collected for the interim analysis. The incidence of ADRs in each subgroup was 2.98-6.98% of patients, with no differences in the ADR profile (including hypoglycemia and renal function ADRs) between subgroups. At 1 and 2 years after starting teneligliptin, the least-squares mean change in HbA1c adjusted to the baseline was - 0.68 to - 0.85% and - 0.71 to - 0.85% across the eGFR groups, respectively. Treatment with teneligliptin in patients on dialysis reduced or tended to reduce glycated albumin levels [- 2.29%, (p < 0.001) after 1 year; - 1.64%, (p = 0.064) after 2 years]. During long-term treatment, teneligliptin was generally well tolerated in patients with any stage of renal impairment from normal to end-stage renal disease, including those on dialysis, and improved glycemic control. Japic CTI-153047. Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation and Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd.

A meta-analysis of prehospital airway control techniques part I: orotracheal and nasotracheal intubation success rates.

PubMed

Hubble, Michael W; Brown, Lawrence; Wilfong, Denise A; Hertelendy, Attila; Benner, Randall W; Richards, Michael E

2010-01-01

Airway management is a key component of prehospital care for seriously ill and injured patients. Although endotracheal intubation has been a commonly performed prehospital procedure for nearly three decades, the safety and efficacy profile of prehospital intubation has been challenged in the last decade. Reported intubation success rates vary widely, and established benchmarks are lacking. We sought to determine pooled estimates for oral endotracheal intubation (OETI) and nasotracheal intubation (NTI) placement success rates through a meta-analysis of the literature. We performed a systematic literature search for all English-language articles reporting placement success rates for prehospital intubation. Studies of field procedures performed by prehospital personnel from any nation were included. All titles were reviewed independently by two authors using prespecified inclusion criteria. Pooled estimates of success rates for each airway technique, including drug-facilitated intubation (DFI) and rapid-sequence intubation (RSI), were calculated using a random-effects model. Historical trends were evaluated using meta-regression. Of 2,005 identified titles reviewed, 117 studies addressed OETI and 23 addressed NTI, encompassing a total of 57,132 prehospital patients. There was substantial interrater reliability in the review process (kappa = 0.81). The pooled estimates (and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for intervention success for nonphysician clinicians were as follows: overall non-RSI/non-DFI OETI success rate: 86.3% (82.6%-89.4%); OETI for non-cardiac arrest patients: 69.8% (50.9%-83.8%); DFI 86.8% (80.2%-91.4%); and RSI 96.7% (94.7%-98.0%). For pediatric patients, the paramedic OETI success rate was 83.2% (55.2%-95.2%). The overall NTI success rate for nonphysician clinicians was 75.9% (65.9%-83.7%). The historical trend of OETI reflects a 0.49% decline in success rates per year. We provide pooled estimates of placement success rates for prehospital airway interventions. For some patient and clinician characteristics, OETI has relatively low success rates. For nonarrest patients, DFI and RSI appear to increase success rates. Across all clinicians, NTI has a low rate of success, raising questions about the safety and efficacy of this procedure.

National mandatory motorcycle helmet laws may save $2.2 billion annually: An inpatient and value of statistical life analysis.

PubMed

Dua, Anahita; Wei, Shuyan; Safarik, Justin; Furlough, Courtney; Desai, Sapan S

2015-06-01

While statistics exist regarding the overall rate of fatalities in motorcyclists with and without helmets, a combined inpatient and value of statistical life (VSL) analysis has not previously been reported. Statistical data of motorcycle collisions were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control, National Highway Transportation Safety Board, and Governors Highway Safety Association. The VSL estimate was obtained from the 2002 Department of Transportation calculation. Statistics on helmeted versus nonhelmeted motorcyclists, death at the scene, and inpatient death were obtained using the 2010 National Trauma Data Bank. Inpatient costs were obtained from the 2010 National Inpatient Sample. Population estimates were generated using weighted samples, and all costs are reported using 2010 US dollars using the Consumer Price Index. A total of 3,951 fatal motorcycle collisions were reported in 2010, of which 77% of patients died at the scene, 10% in the emergency department, and 13% as inpatients. Thirty-seven percent of all riders did not wear a helmet but accounted for 69% of all deaths. Of those motorcyclists who survived to the hospital, the odds ratio of surviving with a helmet was 1.51 compared with those without a helmet (p < 0.001). Total costs for nonhelmeted motorcyclists were 66% greater at $5.5 billion, compared with $3.3 billion for helmeted motorcyclists (p < 0.001). Direct inpatient costs were 16% greater for helmeted riders ($203,248 vs. $175,006) but led to more than 50% greater VSL generated (absolute benefit, $602,519 per helmeted survivor). A cost analysis of inpatient care and indirect costs of motorcycle riders who do not wear helmets leads to nearly $2.2 billion in losses per year, with almost 1.9 times as many deaths compared with helmeted motorcyclists. The per capita cost per fatality is more than $800,000. Institution of a mandatory helmet law could lead to an annual cost savings of almost $2.2 billion. Economic analysis, level III.

Safety System Design for Technology Education. A Safety Guide for Technology Education Courses K-12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

North Carolina State Dept. of Public Instruction, Raleigh. Div. of Vocational Education.

This manual is designed to involve both teachers and students in planning and controlling a safety system for technology education classrooms. The safety program involves students in the design and maintenance of the system by including them in the analysis of the classroom environment, job safety analysis, safety inspection, and machine safety…

14 CFR Appendix B of Part 415 - Safety Review Document Outline

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Performed by Certified Personnel 4.0Flight Safety (§ 415.115) 4.1Initial Flight Safety Analysis 4.1.1Flight Safety Sub-Analyses, Methods, and Assumptions 4.1.2Sample Calculation and Products 4.1.3 Launch Specific Updates and Final Flight Safety Analysis Data 4.2Radionuclide Data (where applicable) 4.3Flight Safety...

14 CFR Appendix B of Part 415 - Safety Review Document Outline

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Performed by Certified Personnel 4.0Flight Safety (§ 415.115) 4.1Initial Flight Safety Analysis 4.1.1Flight Safety Sub-Analyses, Methods, and Assumptions 4.1.2Sample Calculation and Products 4.1.3 Launch Specific Updates and Final Flight Safety Analysis Data 4.2Radionuclide Data (where applicable) 4.3Flight Safety...

14 CFR Appendix B of Part 415 - Safety Review Document Outline

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Performed by Certified Personnel 4.0Flight Safety (§ 415.115) 4.1Initial Flight Safety Analysis 4.1.1Flight Safety Sub-Analyses, Methods, and Assumptions 4.1.2Sample Calculation and Products 4.1.3 Launch Specific Updates and Final Flight Safety Analysis Data 4.2Radionuclide Data (where applicable) 4.3Flight Safety...

14 CFR 417.227 - Toxic release hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Toxic release hazard analysis. 417.227..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.227 Toxic release hazard analysis. A flight safety analysis must establish flight commit criteria that protect the public from any...

41 CFR 102-80.130 - Who must perform the equivalent level of safety analysis?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Equivalent Level of Safety Analysis... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Who must perform the equivalent level of safety analysis? 102-80.130 Section 102-80.130 Public Contracts and Property Management...

Traffic safety facts : feasibility for an EMS workforce safety and health surveillance system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-05-01

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel treat an estimated : 22 million patients a year (Maguire and Walz, 2004). : While on duty, EMS workers frequently encounter two : work-related risks: injury and illness. Current research on : EMS workforce i...

2006 seat belt use estimate for Native American tribal reservations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-05-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Indian Highway Safety Program, sponsored a project in fall 2004 to (a) establish the first baseline tribal reservation seat belt use rate, and (b) develop a me...

Estimation of traffic impacts at work zones : state of the practice.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

Assessing the safety and mobility impacts of work zones across the project development phases of road construction and maintenance projects is an emphasis area of the Federal Highway Administration's Final Rule on Work Zone Safety and Mobility1 (Fina...

Older drivers, the age factor in traffic safety

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-02-01

The report presents an overview of the traffic safety problem in relation to the age of the driver. Emphasis is placed on the older drivers. Crash involvement rates are developed for each age group of drivers based on their estimated annual travel. T...

Characteristics and conditions of teenage safety belt use

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-07-01

Safety belt use was observed for 7,384 vehicle occupants estimated as 15-19 years old in four states - Texas, Virginia, Idaho, and Mississippi. Age and other pertinent information was obtained from 2,330 teen occupants. Belt use ranged from 19.5% in ...

A Synthetic Vision Preliminary Integrated Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemm, Robert; Houser, Scott

2001-01-01

This report documents efforts to analyze a sample of aviation safety programs, using the LMI-developed integrated safety analysis tool to determine the change in system risk resulting from Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) technology implementation. Specifically, we have worked to modify existing system safety tools to address the safety impact of synthetic vision (SV) technology. Safety metrics include reliability, availability, and resultant hazard. This analysis of SV technology is intended to be part of a larger effort to develop a model that is capable of "providing further support to the product design and development team as additional information becomes available". The reliability analysis portion of the effort is complete and is fully documented in this report. The simulation analysis is still underway; it will be documented in a subsequent report. The specific goal of this effort is to apply the integrated safety analysis to SV technology. This report also contains a brief discussion of data necessary to expand the human performance capability of the model, as well as a discussion of human behavior and its implications for system risk assessment in this modeling environment.

A Study on Urban Road Traffic Safety Based on Matter Element Analysis

PubMed Central

Hu, Qizhou; Zhou, Zhuping; Sun, Xu

2014-01-01

This paper examines a new evaluation of urban road traffic safety based on a matter element analysis, avoiding the difficulties found in other traffic safety evaluations. The issue of urban road traffic safety has been investigated through the matter element analysis theory. The chief aim of the present work is to investigate the features of urban road traffic safety. Emphasis was placed on the construction of a criterion function by which traffic safety achieved a hierarchical system of objectives to be evaluated. The matter element analysis theory was used to create the comprehensive appraisal model of urban road traffic safety. The technique was used to employ a newly developed and versatile matter element analysis algorithm. The matter element matrix solves the uncertainty and incompatibility of the evaluated factors used to assess urban road traffic safety. The application results showed the superiority of the evaluation model and a didactic example was included to illustrate the computational procedure. PMID:25587267

Principle considerations for the risk assessment of sprayed consumer products.

PubMed

Steiling, W; Bascompta, M; Carthew, P; Catalano, G; Corea, N; D'Haese, A; Jackson, P; Kromidas, L; Meurice, P; Rothe, H; Singal, M

2014-05-16

In recent years, the official regulation of chemicals and chemical products has been intensified. Explicitly for spray products enhanced requirements to assess the consumers'/professionals' exposure to such product type have been introduced. In this regard the Aerosol-Dispensers-Directive (75/324/EEC) with obligation for marketing aerosol dispensers, and the Cosmetic-Products-Regulation (1223/2009/EC) which obliges the insurance of a safety assessment, have to be mentioned. Both enactments, similar to the REACH regulation (1907/2006/EC), require a robust chemical safety assessment. From such assessment, appropriate risk management measures may be identified to adequately control the risk of these chemicals/products to human health and the environment when used. Currently, the above-mentioned regulations lack the guidance on which data are needed for preparing a proper hazard analysis and safety assessment of spray products. Mandatory in the process of inhalation risk and safety assessment is the determination and quantification of the actual exposure to the spray product and more specifically, its ingredients. In this respect the current article, prepared by the European Aerosol Federation (FEA, Brussels) task force "Inhalation Toxicology", intends to introduce toxicological principles and the state of the art in currently available exposure models adapted for typical application scenarios. This review on current methodologies is intended to guide safety assessors to better estimate inhalation exposure by using the most relevant data. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses: Criticality (k eff) Predictions

DOE PAGES

Scaglione, John M.; Mueller, Don E.; Wagner, John C.

2014-12-01

One of the most important remaining challenges associated with expanded implementation of burnup credit in the United States is the validation of depletion and criticality calculations used in the safety evaluation—in particular, the availability and use of applicable measured data to support validation, especially for fission products (FPs). Applicants and regulatory reviewers have been constrained by both a scarcity of data and a lack of clear technical basis or approach for use of the data. In this study, this paper describes a validation approach for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) criticality safety (k eff) evaluations based on best-available data andmore » methods and applies the approach for representative SNF storage and transport configurations/conditions to demonstrate its usage and applicability, as well as to provide reference bias results. The criticality validation approach utilizes not only available laboratory critical experiment (LCE) data from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the French Haut Taux de Combustion program to support validation of the principal actinides but also calculated sensitivities, nuclear data uncertainties, and limited available FP LCE data to predict and verify individual biases for relevant minor actinides and FPs. The results demonstrate that (a) sufficient critical experiment data exist to adequately validate k eff calculations via conventional validation approaches for the primary actinides, (b) sensitivity-based critical experiment selection is more appropriate for generating accurate application model bias and uncertainty, and (c) calculated sensitivities and nuclear data uncertainties can be used for generating conservative estimates of bias for minor actinides and FPs. Results based on the SCALE 6.1 and the ENDF/B-VII.0 cross-section libraries indicate that a conservative estimate of the bias for the minor actinides and FPs is 1.5% of their worth within the application model. Finally, this paper provides a detailed description of the approach and its technical bases, describes the application of the approach for representative pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor safety analysis models, and provides reference bias results based on the prerelease SCALE 6.1 code package and ENDF/B-VII nuclear cross-section data.« less

Safety of catheter-directed thrombolysis for the treatment of acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Li; Zhang, Chuanlin; Mu, Shaoyu; Yeh, Chao Hsing; Chen, Liqun; Zhang, Zeju; Wang, Xueqin

2017-09-01

Despite established guidelines, catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) for the management of acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) should not be overstated because the risks of CDT are uncertain. We performed a meta-analysis to comprehensively and quantitatively evaluate the safety of CDT for patients with acute lower extremity DVT. Relevant databases, including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Ovid MEDLINE, and Scopus, were searched up to January 2017. The inclusion criteria were applied to select patients with acute lower extremity DVT treated by CDT or compared CDT with anticoagulation. In case series studies, the pooled estimates of safety outcomes for complications, pulmonary embolism (PE), and mortality were calculated across studies. In studies comparing CDT with anticoagulation, summary odds ratios (ORs) were calculated. Of the 1696 citations identified, 24 studies (6 comparing CDT with anticoagulation and 18 case series) including 9157 patients met the eligibility criteria. In the case series studies, the pooled risks of major, minor, and total complications were 0.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02-0.04), 0.07 (95% CI: 0.05-0.08), and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.08-0.11), respectively; other pooled risk results were 0.00 for PE (95% CI: 0.00-0.01) and 0.07 for mortality (95% CI: 0.03-0.11). Our meta-analysis of 6 studies comparing the risk of complications and PE related to CDT with those related to anticoagulation showed that CDT was associated with an increased risk of complications (OR = 4.36; 95% CI: 2.94-6.47) and PE (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.37-1.79). Acute lower extremity DVT patients receiving CDT are associated with a low risk of complications. However, compared with anticoagulation, CDT is associated with a higher risk of complications and PE. Rare mortality related to thrombolytic therapy was reported. More evidence should be accumulated to prove the safety of CDT.

Safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of a recombinant tetravalent dengue vaccine: a meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

da Costa, Vivaldo G; Marques-Silva, Ariany C; Floriano, Vitor G; Moreli, Marcos L

2014-09-03

The World Health Organization has stipulated a target: reduce the mortality rate caused by dengue disease by 50% until 2020. Most likely, this goal can be achieved by means of a dengue vaccine. Accordingly, the recombinant and tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV), developed by the Sanofi Pasteur Group, is in an advanced stage of human testing. Although there are multiple randomized, placebo-controlled trials evaluating the CYD-TDV, individual results may have little power to identify differences between the populations studied. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine a more precise estimate of the overall parameters of safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of CYD-TDV. A data search was conducted in the PubMed, Medline, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and SciELO databases with defined selection criteria. We included for meta-analysis seven randomized and placebo-controlled studies that included 6678 patients randomized to receive the CYD-TDV (4586) or placebo (2092). Regarding vaccine safety, it was found that there was no significant difference between treated and placebo groups, as only approximately 5.5% of patients were withdrawn from the study. Regarding immunogenicity, the levels of neutralizing antibodies were measured by weighted mean differences (WMD), which were always higher in the vaccinated group (WMD/DENV1=59.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 57-61; WMD/DENV2=99, 95% CI 95-102; WMD/DENV3=138, 95% CI 133-142; WMD/DENV4=123, 95% CI 119-126). The clinical efficacy of the vaccine was 59% (95% CI 15-80; RR=0.41, 95% CI 0.2-0.85, I(2)=30.9%). In conclusion, safety and a balanced immune response to the CYD-TDV were found. However, to fully establish the clinical effectiveness and robustness of immunogenicity, it is necessary to perform further studies to assess the long-term effects of the vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the thickness of diffusive solid electrolyte interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, XiaoHe; Shen, WenHao; Huang, XianFu; Zang, JinLiang; Zhao, YaPu

2017-06-01

The solid electrolyte interface (SEI) is a hierarchical structure formed in the transition zone between the electrode and the electrolyte. The properties of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery, such as cycle life, irreversible capacity loss, self-discharge rate, electrode corrosion and safety are usually ascribed to the quality of the SEI, which are highly dependent on the thickness. Thus, understanding the formation mechanism and the SEI thickness is of prime interest. First, we apply dimensional analysis to obtain an explicit relation between the thickness and the number density in this study. Then the SEI thickness in the initial charge-discharge cycle is analyzed and estimated for the first time using the Cahn-Hilliard phase-field model. In addition, the SEI thickness by molecular dynamics simulation validates the theoretical results. It has been shown that the established model and the simulation in this paper estimate the SEI thickness concisely within order-of-magnitude of nanometers. Our results may help in evaluating the performance of SEI and assist the future design of Li-ion battery.

Trajectory Planning by Preserving Flexibility: Metrics and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni R.; El-Wakil, Tarek; Wing, David J.

2008-01-01

In order to support traffic management functions, such as mitigating traffic complexity, ground and airborne systems may benefit from preserving or optimizing trajectory flexibility. To help support this hypothesis trajectory flexibility metrics have been defined in previous work to represent the trajectory robustness and adaptability to the risk of violating safety and traffic management constraints. In this paper these metrics are instantiated in the case of planning a trajectory with the heading degree of freedom. A metric estimation method is presented based on simplifying assumptions, namely discrete time and heading maneuvers. A case is analyzed to demonstrate the estimation method and its use in trajectory planning in a situation involving meeting a time constraint and avoiding loss of separation with nearby traffic. The case involves comparing path-stretch trajectories, in terms of adaptability and robustness along each, deduced from a map of estimated flexibility metrics over the solution space. The case demonstrated anecdotally that preserving flexibility may result in enhancing certain factors that contribute to traffic complexity, namely reducing proximity and confrontation.

An expert judgment model applied to estimating the safety effect of a bicycle facility.

PubMed

Leden, L; Gårder, P; Pulkkinen, U

2000-07-01

This paper presents a risk index model that can be used for assessing the safety effect of countermeasures. The model estimates risk in a multiplicative way, which makes it possible to analyze the impact of different factors separately. Expert judgments are incorporated through a Bayesian error model. The variance of the risk estimate is determined by Monte-Carlo simulation. The model was applied to assess the safety effect of a new design of a bicycle crossing. The intent was to gain safety by raising the crossings to reduce vehicle speeds and by making the crossings more visible by painting them in a bright color. Before the implementations, bicyclists were riding on bicycle crossings of conventional Swedish type, i.e. similar to crosswalks but delineated by white squares rather than solid lines or zebra markings. Automobile speeds were reduced as anticipated. However, it seems as if the positive effect of this was more or less canceled out by increased bicycle speeds. The safety per bicyclist was still improved by approximately 20%. This improvement was primarily caused by an increase in bicycle flow, since the data show that more bicyclists at a given location seem to benefit their safety. The increase in bicycle flow was probably caused by the new layout of the crossings since bicyclists perceived them as safer and causing less delay. Some future development work is suggested. Pros and cons with the used methodology are discussed. The most crucial parameter to be added is probably a model describing the interaction between motorists and bicyclists, for example, how risk is influenced by the lateral position of the bicyclist in relation to the motorist. It is concluded that the interaction seems to be optimal when both groups share the roadway.

Hotspots identification and ranking for road safety improvement: an alternative approach.

PubMed

Coll, Bronagh; Moutari, Salissou; Marshall, Adele H

2013-10-01

During the last decade, the concept of composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has become a popular practice in the field of road safety, namely for the identification and classification of worst performing areas or time slots also known as hotspots. The overall quality of a composite index depends upon the complexity of phenomena of interest as well as the relevance of the methodological approach used to aggregate the various indicators into a single composite index. However, current aggregation methods used to estimate the composite road safety performance index suffer from various deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, the weighting of the indicators as well as their high "degree of freedom" which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes (Munda and Nardo, 2003, 2005, 2009). The objective of this study is to contribute to the ongoing research effort on the estimation of road safety composite index for hotspots' identification and ranking. The aggregation method for constructing the composite road safety performance index introduced in this paper, strives to minimize the aforementioned deficiencies of the current approaches. Furthermore, this new method can be viewed as an intelligent decision support system for road safety performance evaluation, in order to prioritize interventions for road safety improvement. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Associations of Neighborhood Crime and Safety and With Changes in Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Powell-Wiley, Tiffany M; Moore, Kari; Allen, Norrina; Block, Richard; Evenson, Kelly R; Mujahid, Mahasin; Diez Roux, Ana V

2017-08-01

Using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), we evaluated associations of neighborhood crime and safety with changes in adiposity (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference). MESA is a longitudinal study of cardiovascular disease among adults aged 45-84 years at baseline in 2000-2002, from 6 US sites, with follow-up for MESA participants until 2012. Data for this study were limited to Chicago, Illinois, participants in the MESA Neighborhood Ancillary Study, for whom police-recorded crime data were available, and who had complete baseline data (n = 673). We estimated associations of individual-level safety, aggregated neighborhood-level safety, and police-recorded crime with baseline levels and trajectories of BMI and waist circumference over time using linear mixed modeling with random effects. We also estimated how changes in these factors related to changes in BMI and waist circumference using econometric fixed-effects models. At baseline, greater individual-level safety was associated with more adiposity. Increasing individual- and neighborhood-level safety over time were associated with decreasing BMI over the 10-year period, with a more pronounced effect observed in women for individual-level safety and men for neighborhood-level safety. Police-recorded crime was not associated with adiposity. Neighborhood-level safety likely influences adiposity change and subsequent cardiovascular risk in multiethnic populations. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Predicting Fatigue and Psychophysiological Test Performance from Speech for Safety-Critical Environments.

PubMed

Baykaner, Khan Richard; Huckvale, Mark; Whiteley, Iya; Andreeva, Svetlana; Ryumin, Oleg

2015-01-01

Automatic systems for estimating operator fatigue have application in safety-critical environments. A system which could estimate level of fatigue from speech would have application in domains where operators engage in regular verbal communication as part of their duties. Previous studies on the prediction of fatigue from speech have been limited because of their reliance on subjective ratings and because they lack comparison to other methods for assessing fatigue. In this paper, we present an analysis of voice recordings and psychophysiological test scores collected from seven aerospace personnel during a training task in which they remained awake for 60 h. We show that voice features and test scores are affected by both the total time spent awake and the time position within each subject's circadian cycle. However, we show that time spent awake and time-of-day information are poor predictors of the test results, while voice features can give good predictions of the psychophysiological test scores and sleep latency. Mean absolute errors of prediction are possible within about 17.5% for sleep latency and 5-12% for test scores. We discuss the implications for the use of voice as a means to monitor the effects of fatigue on cognitive performance in practical applications.

Overall Survival Analysis From a Randomized Phase II Study of Axitinib With or Without Dose Titration in First-Line Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Rini, Brian I; Tomita, Yoshihiko; Melichar, Bohuslav; Ueda, Takeshi; Grünwald, Viktor; Fishman, Mayer N; Uemura, Hirotsugu; Oya, Mototsugu; Bair, Angel H; Andrews, Glen I; Rosbrook, Brad; Jonasch, Eric

2016-12-01

In a randomized phase II trial in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), objective response rate was significantly higher with axitinib versus placebo titration (54% vs. 34%; 1-sided P = .019). Treatment-naive patients with mRCC (n = 213) received axitinib 5 mg twice per day (b.i.d.) for 4 weeks. Patients meeting dose titration criteria were randomized to receive axitinib 5 mg b.i.d. with axitinib or placebo titration (n = 56 each); 91 patients ineligible for randomization continued axitinib 5 mg b.i.d.; 10 discontinued before randomization. Median overall survival (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 42.7 months (24.7-not estimable) with axitinib titration versus 30.4 months (23.7-45.0) with placebo titration (stratified hazard ratio, 0.785; 95% CI, 0.485-1.272; 1-sided P = .162), and 41.6 months (95% CI, 33.0-not estimable) in nonrandomized patients. Safety data were consistent with previous reports. Median overall survival was numerically longer in patients with first-line mRCC who received axitinib versus placebo titration. No new safety signal was observed after long-term axitinib treatment in first-line mRCC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Fatigue and Psychophysiological Test Performance from Speech for Safety-Critical Environments

PubMed Central

Baykaner, Khan Richard; Huckvale, Mark; Whiteley, Iya; Andreeva, Svetlana; Ryumin, Oleg

2015-01-01

Automatic systems for estimating operator fatigue have application in safety-critical environments. A system which could estimate level of fatigue from speech would have application in domains where operators engage in regular verbal communication as part of their duties. Previous studies on the prediction of fatigue from speech have been limited because of their reliance on subjective ratings and because they lack comparison to other methods for assessing fatigue. In this paper, we present an analysis of voice recordings and psychophysiological test scores collected from seven aerospace personnel during a training task in which they remained awake for 60 h. We show that voice features and test scores are affected by both the total time spent awake and the time position within each subject’s circadian cycle. However, we show that time spent awake and time-of-day information are poor predictors of the test results, while voice features can give good predictions of the psychophysiological test scores and sleep latency. Mean absolute errors of prediction are possible within about 17.5% for sleep latency and 5–12% for test scores. We discuss the implications for the use of voice as a means to monitor the effects of fatigue on cognitive performance in practical applications. PMID:26380259

75 FR 74022 - Safety Analysis Requirements for Defining Adequate Protection for the Public and the Workers

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-30

... DEFENSE NUCLEAR FACILITIES SAFETY BOARD [Recommendation 2010-1] Safety Analysis Requirements for Defining Adequate Protection for the Public and the Workers AGENCY: Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board... Nuclear Facilities Safety Board has made a recommendation to the Secretary of Energy requesting an...

Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CROWE, R.D.; PIEPHO, M.G.

2000-03-23

This document provided the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report''. All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

Implications of human tissue studies for radiation protection.

PubMed

Kathren, R L

1988-08-01

Through radiochemical analysis of voluntary tissue donations, the U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries (USTR) are gaining improved understanding of the distribution and biokinetics of actinide elements in occupationally exposed persons. Evaluation of the first two whole-body contributions to the USTR revealed an inverse proportionality between actinide concentration and bone ash. The analysis of a whole body with significant 241Am deposition indicated a significantly shorter half-time in liver and a greater fraction resident in the skeleton than predicted by existing models. Other studies with tissues obtained at autopsy suggest that existing biokinetic models for 238Pu and 241Am and the currently accepted models and limits on intake, which use these models as their basis, may be inaccurately implying that revisions of existing safety standards may be necessary. Other studies of the registries are designed to evaluate in-vivo estimates of actinide deposition with those derived from postmortem tissue analysis, to compare results of animal experiments with human data, and to review histopathologic slides for tissue changes that might be attributable to exposure to transuranic elements. The implications of these recent findings and other work of the registries is discussed from the standpoint of this potential effect on biokinetic modeling, internal dose assessment, and safety standards and operational health physics practices.

Implications of human tissue studies for radiation protection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kathren, R.L.

1988-08-01

Through radiochemical analysis of voluntary tissue donations, the U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries (USTR) are gaining improved understanding of the distribution and biokinetics of actinide elements in occupationally exposed persons. Evaluation of the first two whole-body contributions to the USTR revealed an inverse proportionality between actinide concentration and bone ash. The analysis of a whole body with significant /sup 241/Am deposition indicated a significantly shorter half-time in liver and a greater fraction resident in the skeleton than predicted by existing models. Other studies with tissues obtained at autopsy suggest that existing biokinetic models for /sup 238/Pu and /sup 241/Am andmore » the currently accepted models and limits on intake, which use these models as their basis, may be inaccurately implying that revisions of existing safety standards may be necessary. Other studies of the registries are designed to evaluate in-vivo estimates of actinide deposition with those derived from postmortem tissue analysis, to compare results of animal experiments with human data, and to review histopathologic slides for tissue changes that might be attributable to exposure to transuranic elements. The implications of these recent findings and other work of the registries is discussed from the standpoint of this potential effect on biokinetic modeling, internal dose assessment, and safety standards and operational health physics practices.« less

Analysis of the clonal repertoire of gene-corrected cells in gene therapy.

PubMed

Paruzynski, Anna; Glimm, Hanno; Schmidt, Manfred; Kalle, Christof von

2012-01-01

Gene therapy-based clinical phase I/II studies using integrating retroviral vectors could successfully treat different monogenetic inherited diseases. However, with increased efficiency of this therapy, severe side effects occurred in various gene therapy trials. In all cases, integration of the vector close to or within a proto-oncogene contributed substantially to the development of the malignancies. Thus, the in-depth analysis of integration site patterns is of high importance to uncover potential clonal outgrowth and to assess the safety of gene transfer vectors and gene therapy protocols. The standard and nonrestrictive linear amplification-mediated PCR (nrLAM-PCR) in combination with high-throughput sequencing exhibits technologies that allow to comprehensively analyze the clonal repertoire of gene-corrected cells and to assess the safety of the used vector system at an early stage on the molecular level. It enables clarifying the biological consequences of the vector system on the fate of the transduced cell. Furthermore, the downstream performance of real-time PCR allows a quantitative estimation of the clonality of individual cells and their clonal progeny. Here, we present a guideline that should allow researchers to perform comprehensive integration site analysis in preclinical and clinical studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patient Safety in Complementary Medicine through the Application of Clinical Risk Management in the Public Health System

PubMed Central

Rossi, Elio G.; Picchi, Marco; Baccetti, Sonia; Monechi, Maria Valeria; Vuono, Catia; Sabatini, Federica; Traversi, Antonella; Di Stefano, Mariella; Firenzuoli, Fabio; Albolino, Sara; Tartaglia, Riccardo

2017-01-01

Aim: To develop a systematic approach to detect and prevent clinical risks in complementary medicine (CM) and increase patient safety through the analysis of activities in homeopathy and acupuncture centres in the Tuscan region using a significant event audit (SEA) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Methods: SEA is the selected tool for studying adverse events (AE) and detecting the best solutions to prevent future incidents in our Regional Healthcare Service (RHS). This requires the active participation of all the actors and external experts to validate the analysis. FMEA is a proactive risk assessment tool involving the selection of the clinical process, the input of a multidisciplinary group of experts, description of the process, identification of the failure modes (FMs) for each step, estimates of the frequency, severity, and detectability of FMs, calculation of the risk priority number (RPN), and prioritized improvement actions to prevent FMs. Results: In homeopathy, the greatest risk depends on the decision to switch from allopathic to homeopathic therapy. In acupuncture, major problems can arise, mainly from delayed treatment and from the modalities of needle insertion. Conclusions: The combination of SEA and FMEA can reveal potential risks for patients and suggest actions for safer and more reliable services in CM. PMID:29258191

Patient Safety in Complementary Medicine through the Application of Clinical Risk Management in the Public Health System.

PubMed

Rossi, Elio G; Bellandi, Tommaso; Picchi, Marco; Baccetti, Sonia; Monechi, Maria Valeria; Vuono, Catia; Sabatini, Federica; Traversi, Antonella; Di Stefano, Mariella; Firenzuoli, Fabio; Albolino, Sara; Tartaglia, Riccardo

2017-12-16

Aim: To develop a systematic approach to detect and prevent clinical risks in complementary medicine (CM) and increase patient safety through the analysis of activities in homeopathy and acupuncture centres in the Tuscan region using a significant event audit (SEA) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Methods: SEA is the selected tool for studying adverse events (AE) and detecting the best solutions to prevent future incidents in our Regional Healthcare Service (RHS). This requires the active participation of all the actors and external experts to validate the analysis. FMEA is a proactive risk assessment tool involving the selection of the clinical process, the input of a multidisciplinary group of experts, description of the process, identification of the failure modes (FMs) for each step, estimates of the frequency, severity, and detectability of FMs, calculation of the risk priority number (RPN), and prioritized improvement actions to prevent FMs. Results: In homeopathy, the greatest risk depends on the decision to switch from allopathic to homeopathic therapy. In acupuncture, major problems can arise, mainly from delayed treatment and from the modalities of needle insertion. Conclusions: The combination of SEA and FMEA can reveal potential risks for patients and suggest actions for safer and more reliable services in CM.

Characterization of bauxite residue (red mud) for 235U, 238U, 232Th and 40K using neutron activation analysis and the radiation dose levels as modeled by MCNP.

PubMed

Landsberger, S; Sharp, A; Wang, S; Pontikes, Y; Tkaczyk, A H

2017-07-01

This study employs thermal and epithermal neutron activation analysis (NAA) to quantitatively and specifically determine absorption dose rates to various body parts from uranium, thorium and potassium. Specifically, a case study of bauxite residue (red mud) from an industrial facility was used to demonstrate the feasibility of the NAA approach for radiological safety assessment, using small sample sizes to ascertain the activities of 235 U, 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K. This proof-of-concept was shown to produce reliable results and a similar approach could be used for quantitative assessment of other samples with possible radiological significance. 238 U and 232 Th were determined by epithermal and thermal neutron activation analysis, respectively. 235 U was determined based on the known isotopic ratio of 238 U/ 235 U. 40 K was also determined using epithermal neutron activation analysis to measure total potassium content and then subtracting its isotopic contribution. Furthermore, the work demonstrates the application of Monte Carlo Neutral-Particle (MCNP) simulations to estimate the radiation dose from large quantities of red mud, to assure the safety of humans and the surrounding environment. Phantoms were employed to observe the dose distribution throughout the human body demonstrating radiation effects on each individual organ. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Travtek Evaluation Yoked Driver Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-11-01

The purpose of this paper is to present estimates of potential safety benefits resulting from full implementation of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in the United States. These estimates were derived by integrating results from a number of d...

Efficacy and safety of damage control in experimental animal models of injury: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although abbreviated surgery with planned reoperation (damage control surgery) is now widely used to manage major trauma patients, the procedure and its component interventions have not been evaluated in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). While some have suggested the need for such trials, they are unlikely to be conducted because of patient safety concerns. As animal studies may overcome several of the limitations of existing observational damage control studies, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of damage control versus definitive surgery in experimental animal models of injury. Methods/design We will search electronic databases (Medline, Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library), conference abstracts, personal files, and bibliographies of included articles. We will include RCTs and prospective cohort studies that utilized an animal model of injury and compared damage control surgery (or specific damage control interventions or adjuncts) to definitive surgery (or specific definitive surgical interventions). Two investigators will independently evaluate the internal and external/construct validity of individual studies. The primary outcome will be all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes will include blood loss amounts; blood pressures and heart rates; urinary outputs; core body temperatures; arterial lactate, pH, and base deficit/excess values; prothrombin and partial thromboplastin times; international normalized ratios; and thromboelastography (TEG) results/activated clotting times. We will calculate summary relative risks (RRs) of mortality and mean differences (for continuous outcomes) using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. Heterogeneity will be explored using subgroup meta-analysis and meta-regression. We will assess for publication bias using funnel plots and Begg’s and Egger’s tests. When evidence of publication bias exists, we will use the Duval and Tweedie trim and fill method to estimate the potential influence of this bias on pooled summary estimates. Discussion This study will evaluate the efficacy and safety of damage control in experimental animal models of injury. Study results will be used to guide future clinical evaluations of damage control surgery, determine which animal study outcomes may potentially be generalizable to the clinical setting, and to provide guidelines to strengthen the conduct and relevance of future pre-clinical studies. PMID:25416175

The Three-Dimensional (3D) Numerical Stability Analysis of Hyttemalmen Open-Pit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cała, Marek; Kowalski, Michał; Stopkowicz, Agnieszka

2014-10-01

The purpose of this paper was to perform the 3D numerical calculations allowing slope stability analysis of Hyttemalmen open pit (location Kirkenes, Finnmark Province, Norway). After a ramp rock slide, which took place in December 2010, as well as some other small-scale rock slope stability problems, it proved necessary to perform a serious stability analyses. The Hyttemalmen open pit was designed with a depth up to 100 m, a bench height of 24 m and a ramp width of 10 m. The rock formation in the iron mining district of Kirkenes is called the Bjornevaten Group. This is the most structurally complicated area connected with tectonic process such as folding, faults and metamorphosis. The Bjornevaten Group is a volcano-sedimentary sequence. Rock slope stability depends on the mechanical properties of the rock, hydro-geological conditions, slope topography, joint set systems and seismic activity. However, rock slope stability is mainly connected with joint sets. Joints, or general discontinuities, are regarded as weak planes within rock which have strength reducing consequences with regard to rock strength. Discontinuities within the rock mass lead to very low tensile strength. Several simulations were performed utilising the RocLab (2007) software to estimate the gneiss cohesion for slopes of different height. The RocLab code is dedicated to estimate rock mass strength using the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. Utilising both the GSI index and the Hoek-Brown strength criterion the equivalent Mohr-Coulomb parameters (cohesion and angle of internal friction) can be calculated. The results of 3D numerical calculations (with FLA3D code) show that it is necessary to redesign the slope-bench system in the Hyttemalmen open pit. Changing slope inclination for lower stages is recommended. The minimum factor of safety should be equal 1.3. At the final planned stage of excavation, the factor of safety drops to 1.06 with failure surface ranging through all of the slopes. In the case of a slope angle 70° for lower stages, FS = 1.26, which is not enough to provide slope stability. Another series of calculations were therefore performed taking water table lowering into consideration, which increases the global safety factor. It was finally evaluated, that for a water table level of 72 m the factor of safety equals 1.3, which is enough to assure global open-pit stability.

Concept analysis of safety climate in healthcare providers.

PubMed

Lin, Ying-Siou; Lin, Yen-Chun; Lou, Meei-Fang

2017-06-01

To report an analysis of the concept of safety climate in healthcare providers. Compliance with safe work practices is essential to patient safety and care outcomes. Analysing the concept of safety climate from the perspective of healthcare providers could improve understanding of the correlations between safety climate and healthcare provider compliance with safe work practices, thus enhancing quality of patient care. Concept analysis. The electronic databases of CINAHL, MEDLINE, PubMed and Web of Science were searched for literature published between 1995-2015. Searches used the keywords 'safety climate' or 'safety culture' with 'hospital' or 'healthcare'. The concept analysis method of Walker and Avant analysed safety climate from the perspective of healthcare providers. Three attributes defined how healthcare providers define safety climate: (1) creation of safe working environment by senior management in healthcare organisations; (2) shared perception of healthcare providers about safety of their work environment; and (3) the effective dissemination of safety information. Antecedents included the characteristics of healthcare providers and healthcare organisations as a whole, and the types of work in which they are engaged. Consequences consisted of safety performance and safety outcomes. Most studies developed and assessed the survey tools of safety climate or safety culture, with a minority consisting of interventional measures for improving safety climate. More prospective studies are needed to create interventional measures for improving safety climate of healthcare providers. This study is provided as a reference for use in developing multidimensional safety climate assessment tools and interventional measures. The values healthcare teams emphasise with regard to safety can serve to improve safety performance. Having an understanding of the concept of and interventional measures for safety climate allows healthcare providers to ensure the safety of their operations and their patients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Steering Patients to Safer Hospitals? The Effect of a Tiered Hospital Network on Hospital Admissions

PubMed Central

Scanlon, Dennis P; Lindrooth, Richard C; Christianson, Jon B

2008-01-01

Objective To determine if a tiered hospital benefit and safety incentive shifted the distribution of admissions toward safer hospitals. Data Sources/Study Setting A large manufacturing company instituted the hospital safety incentive (HSI) for union employees. The HSI gave union patients a financial incentive to choose hospitals that met the Leapfrog Group's three patient safety “leaps.” The analysis merges data from four sources: claims and enrollment data from the company, the American Hospital Association, the AHRQ HCUP-SID, and a state Office of the Insurance Commissioner. Study Design Changes in hospital admissions’ patterns for union and nonunion employees using a difference-in-difference design. We estimate the probability of choosing a specific hospital from a set of available alternatives using conditional logistic regression. Principal Findings Patients affiliated with the engineers’ union and admitted for a medical diagnosis were 2.92 times more likely to select a hospital designated as safer in the postperiod than in the preperiod, while salaried nonunion (SNU) patients (not subject to the financial incentive) were 0.64 times as likely to choose a compliant hospital in the post- versus preperiod. The difference-in-difference estimate, which is based on the predictions of the conditional logit model, is 0.20. However, the machinists’ union was also exposed to the incentive and they were no more likely to choose a safer hospital than the SNU patients. The incentive did not have an effect on patients admitted for a surgical diagnosis, regardless of union status. All patients were averse to travel time, but those union patients selecting an incentive hospital were less averse to travel time. Conclusions Patient price incentives and quality/safety information may influence hospital selection decisions, particularly for medical admissions, though the optimal incentive level for financial return to the plan sponsor is not clear. PMID:18761676

Interchange Safety Analysis Tool (ISAT) : user manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-06-01

This User Manual describes the usage and operation of the spreadsheet-based Interchange Safety Analysis Tool (ISAT). ISAT provides design and safety engineers with an automated tool for assessing the safety effects of geometric design and traffic con...

Safety and functional outcome of thrombolysis in dissection-related ischemic stroke: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

PubMed

Zinkstok, Sanne M; Vergouwen, Mervyn D I; Engelter, Stefan T; Lyrer, Philippe A; Bonati, Leo H; Arnold, Marcel; Mattle, Heinrich P; Fischer, Urs; Sarikaya, Hakan; Baumgartner, Ralf W; Georgiadis, Dimitrios; Odier, Céline; Michel, Patrik; Putaala, Jukka; Griebe, Martin; Wahlgren, Nils; Ahmed, Niaz; van Geloven, Nan; de Haan, Rob J; Nederkoorn, Paul J

2011-09-01

The safety and efficacy of thrombolysis in cervical artery dissection (CAD) are controversial. The aim of this meta-analysis was to pool all individual patient data and provide a valid estimate of safety and outcome of thrombolysis in CAD. We performed a systematic literature search on intravenous and intra-arterial thrombolysis in CAD. We calculated the rates of pooled symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and mortality and indirectly compared them with matched controls from the Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-International Stroke Thrombolysis Register. We applied multivariate regression models to identify predictors of excellent (modified Rankin Scale=0 to 1) and favorable (modified Rankin Scale=0 to 2) outcome. We obtained individual patient data of 180 patients from 14 retrospective series and 22 case reports. Patients were predominantly female (68%), with a mean±SD age of 46±11 years. Most patients presented with severe stroke (median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score=16). Treatment was intravenous thrombolysis in 67% and intra-arterial thrombolysis in 33%. Median follow-up was 3 months. The pooled symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage rate was 3.1% (95% CI, 1.3 to 7.2). Overall mortality was 8.1% (95% CI, 4.9 to 13.2), and 41.0% (95% CI, 31.4 to 51.4) had an excellent outcome. Stroke severity was a strong predictor of outcome. Overlapping confidence intervals of end points indicated no relevant differences with matched controls from the Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-International Stroke Thrombolysis Register. Safety and outcome of thrombolysis in patients with CAD-related stroke appear similar to those for stroke from all causes. Based on our findings, thrombolysis should not be withheld in patients with CAD.

49 CFR 191.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Estimated property damage, including cost of gas lost, of the operator or others, or both, of $50,000 or... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) PIPELINE SAFETY TRANSPORTATION OF NATURAL AND OTHER GAS... Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration or his or her delegate Gas means natural...