Lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease in Aboriginal Australians: a cohort study.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiqiang; Hoy, Wendy E

2013-01-30

Lifetime risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is an important yardstick by which policy makers, clinicians and the general public can assess and promote the awareness and prevention of CHD. The lifetime risk in Aboriginal people is not known. Using a cohort with up to 20 years of follow-up, we estimated the lifetime risk of CHD in Aboriginal people. A cohort study. A remote Aboriginal region. 1115 Aboriginal people from one remote tribal group who were free from CHD at baseline were followed for up to 20 years. During the follow-up period, new CHD incident cases were identified through hospital and death records. We estimated the lifetime risks of CHD with and without adjusting for the presence of competing risk of death from non-CHD causes. Participants were followed up for 17 126 person-years, during which 185 developed CHD and 144 died from non-CHD causes. The average age at which the first CHD event occurred was 48 years for men and 49 years for women. The risk of developing CHD increased with age until 60 years and then decreased with age. Lifetime cumulative risk without adjusting for competing risk was 70.7% for men and 63.8% for women. Adjusting for the presence of competing risk of death from non-CHD causes, the lifetime risk of CHD was 52.6% for men and 49.2% for women. Lifetime risk of CHD is as high as one in two in both Aboriginal men and women. The average age of having first CHD events was under 50 years, much younger than that reported in non-Aboriginal populations. Our data provide useful knowledge for health education, screening and prevention of CHD in Aboriginal people.

Long-term fiscal implications of subsidizing in-vitro fertilization in Sweden: a lifetime tax perspective.

PubMed

Svensson, Anders; Connolly, Mark; Gallo, Federico; Hägglund, Leif

2008-11-01

In Sweden approximately 3% of annual births are conceived using assisted reproductive technologies (ART). In light of increasing use of ART in Sweden we estimate the lifetime future tax revenues of a child conceived by in-vitro fertilization (IVF) to establish whether public subsidy of IVF represents sound fiscal policy. A modified generational accounting model was developed to calculate the net present value (NPV) of average investment costs required to achieve an IVF-conceived child. The model simulates direct lifetime financial interactions between the child and the Swedish government. Within the model we assume average direct financial transfers are made to the individual (eg, child allowance, education, health care, pension, etc). In return, the individual transfers resources to the government through taxation based on anticipated average earnings. The difference between direct transfers and gross taxes paid equals the net-tax contribution. Individual tax contributions were held constant in the model. Based on average life-expectancy an individual born in 2005 will pay an undiscounted 32.5 million SEK in taxes to the Swedish government and receive 20.9 million SEK in direct financial transfers over their lifetime. When these figures are discounted and IVF costs are included in the analysis we obtain a lifetime NPV of 254,000 SEK with a break-even point at age 41 (the age of achieving a positive NPV) for an individual conceived through IVF. Based on results presented here we conclude that State-funded IVF in Sweden does not negatively impact the long run fiscal budget. Conversely, over an average lifetime an IVF offspring returns a positive net value to the State.

The Male-Female Wage Gap: Lifetime Earnings Losses. Briefing Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartmann, Heidi; Whittaker, Julie

Currently, the median full-time woman worker earns 74.4 percent of the annual earnings of the median man. Over their lifetime, young women stand to lose a great deal of money due to differences in the wages for women and men. Estimates are that the average 25-year-old woman who works full time year round for 40 years will earn $523,000 less than…

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

PubMed

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

Long-term economic benefits attributed to IVF-conceived children: a lifetime tax calculation.

PubMed

Connolly, Mark P; Pollard, Michael S; Hoorens, Stijn; Kaplan, Brian R; Oskowitz, Selwyn P; Silber, Sherman J

2008-09-01

To evaluate whether lifetime future net tax revenues from an in vitro fertilization (IVF)-conceived child are substantial enough to warrant public subsidy relative to the mean IVF treatment costs required to obtain 1 live birth. Mathematical generational accounting model. The model estimates direct financial interactions between the IVF-conceived child and the government during the child's projected lifetime. In the model, we accrue IVF costs required to conceive the child to the government, and then we estimate future net tax revenue to the federal and state governments from this individual, offset by direct financial transfers from the government (eg, child allowances, education, Medicare, and Social Security). We discount lifetime costs and gross tax payments at Treasury Department rates to establish the present value of investing in IVF. We applied US Congressional Budget Office projected changes in tax rates over the course of the model. An IVF-conceived child, average in every respect (eg, future earnings, healthcare consumption, and life expectancy), represents a net positive return to the government. Based on an average employed individual born in 2005, the projected net lifetime tax contribution is US $606,200. Taking into consideration IVF costs and all direct financial interactions, the net present value is US $155,870. Lifetime net taxes paid from a child relative to the child's initial IVF investment represent a 700% net return to the government in discounted US dollars from fully employed individuals. This suggests that removing barriers to IVF would have positive tax benefits for the government, notwithstanding its beneficial effect on overall economic growth.

Characterization of Initial Parameter Information for Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Devices.

PubMed

Li, Zhigang; Liu, Boying; Yuan, Mengxiong; Zhang, Feifei; Guo, Jiaqiang

2016-01-01

Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information.

Characterization of Initial Parameter Information for Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Devices

PubMed Central

Li, Zhigang; Liu, Boying; Yuan, Mengxiong; Zhang, Feifei; Guo, Jiaqiang

2016-01-01

Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information. PMID:27907188

Fiscal Impact of Smoking Cessation in Thailand: A Government Perspective Cost-Benefit Analysis.

PubMed

Connolly, Mark P; Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Suthipinijtham, Pichaya; Rungruanghiranya, Suthat

2018-04-01

We evaluate the broader public economic consequences of investments in smoking cessation that change lifetime productivity, which can influence future government tax revenue and social transfer costs and health care spending. The analysis applies a government perspective framework for assessing the intergenerational relationships between morbidity and mortality and lifetime tax revenue and social transfers received. Applying smoking prevalence in Thailand, a cohort model was developed for smoker and former smokers to estimate impact on lifetime direct taxes and tobacco taxes paid. Age-specific earnings for males and wage appropriate tax rates were applied to estimate net taxes for smokers and former smokers. Introducing smoking cessation leads to lifetime public economic benefits of THB13 998 to THB43 356 per person depending on the age of introducing smoking cessation. Factoring in the costs of smoking cessation therapy, an average return on investment of 1.35 was obtained indicating fiscal surplus generated for government from the combined effect of increased tax revenues and of averting smoking-attributable health care costs.

Simulation of quitting smoking in the military shows higher lifetime medical spending more than offset by productivity gains.

PubMed

Yang, Wenya; Dall, Timothy M; Zhang, Yiduo; Zhang, Shiping; Arday, David R; Dorn, Patricia W; Jain, Anjali

2012-12-01

Despite the documented benefits of quitting smoking, studies have found that smokers who quit may have higher lifetime medical costs, in part because of increased risk for medical conditions, such as type 2 diabetes, brought on by associated weight gain. Using a simulation model and data on 612,332 adult smokers in the US Department of Defense's TRICARE Prime health plan in 2008, we estimated that cessation accompanied by weight gain would increase average life expectancy by 3.7 years, and that the average lifetime reduction in medical expenditures from improved health ($5,600) would be offset by additional expenditures resulting from prolonged life ($7,300). Results varied by age and sex: For females ages 18-44 at time of cessation, there would be net savings of $1,200 despite additional medical expenditures from prolonged life. Avoidance of weight gain after quitting smoking would increase average life expectancy by four additional months and reduce mean extra spending resulting from prolonged life by $700. Overall, the average net lifetime health care cost increase of $1,700 or less per ex-smoker would be modest and, for employed people, more than offset by even one year's worth of productivity gains. These results boost the case for smoking cessation programs in the military in particular, along with not selling cigarettes in commissaries or at reduced prices.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, J.A.; Brasseur, G.P.; Zimmerman, P.R.

Using the hydroxyl radical field calibrated to the methyl chloroform observations, the globally averaged release of methane and its spatial and temporal distribution were investigated. Two source function models of the spatial and temporal distribution of the flux of methane to the atmosphere were developed. The first model was based on the assumption that methane is emitted as a proportion of net primary productivity (NPP). With the average hydroxyl radical concentration fixed, the methane source term was computed as {approximately}623 Tg CH{sub 4}, giving an atmospheric lifetime for methane {approximately}8.3 years. The second model identified source regions for methane frommore » rice paddies, wetlands, enteric fermentation, termites, and biomass burning based on high-resolution land use data. This methane source distribution resulted in an estimate of the global total methane source of {approximately}611 Tg CH{sub 4}, giving an atmospheric lifetime for methane {approximately}8.5 years. The most significant difference between the two models were predictions of methane fluxes over China and South East Asia, the location of most of the world's rice paddies. Using a recent measurement of the reaction rate of hydroxyl radical and methane leads to estimates of the global total methane source for SF1 of {approximately}524 Tg CH{sub 4} giving an atmospheric lifetime of {approximately}10.0 years and for SF2{approximately}514 Tg CH{sub 4} yielding a lifetime of {approximately}10.2 years.« less

Short-Lived Buildings in China: Impacts on Water, Energy, and Carbon Emissions.

PubMed

Cai, Wenjia; Wan, Liyang; Jiang, Yongkai; Wang, Can; Lin, Lishen

2015-12-15

This paper has changed the vague understanding that "the short-lived buildings have huge environmental footprints (EF)" into a concrete one. By estimating the annual floor space of buildings demolished and calibrating the average building lifetime in China, this paper compared the EF under various assumptive extended buildings' lifetime scenarios based on time-series environmental-extended input-output model. Results show that if the average buildings' lifetime in China can be extended from the current 23.2 years to their designed life expectancy, 50 years, in 2011, China can reduce 5.8 Gt of water withdrawal, 127.1 Mtce of energy consumption, and 426.0 Mt of carbon emissions, each of which is equivalent to the corresponding annual EF of Belgium, Mexico, and Italy. These findings will urge China to extend the lifetime of existing and new buildings, in order to reduce the EF from further urbanization. This paper also verifies that the lifetime of a product or the replacement rate of a sector is a very important factor that influences the cumulative EF. When making policies to reduce the EF, adjusting people's behaviors to extend the lifetime of products or reduce the replacement rate of sectors may be a very simple and cost-effective option.

Estimating the Societal Benefits of THA After Accounting for Work Status and Productivity: A Markov Model Approach.

PubMed

Koenig, Lane; Zhang, Qian; Austin, Matthew S; Demiralp, Berna; Fehring, Thomas K; Feng, Chaoling; Mather, Richard C; Nguyen, Jennifer T; Saavoss, Asha; Springer, Bryan D; Yates, Adolph J

2016-12-01

Demand for total hip arthroplasty (THA) is high and expected to continue to grow during the next decade. Although much of this growth includes working-aged patients, cost-effectiveness studies on THA have not fully incorporated the productivity effects from surgery. We asked: (1) What is the expected effect of THA on patients' employment and earnings? (2) How does accounting for these effects influence the cost-effectiveness of THA relative to nonsurgical treatment? Taking a societal perspective, we used a Markov model to assess the overall cost-effectiveness of THA compared with nonsurgical treatment. We estimated direct medical costs using Medicare claims data and indirect costs (employment status and worker earnings) using regression models and nonparametric simulations. For direct costs, we estimated average spending 1 year before and after surgery. Spending estimates included physician and related services, hospital inpatient and outpatient care, and postacute care. For indirect costs, we estimated the relationship between functional status and productivity, using data from the National Health Interview Survey and regression analysis. Using regression coefficients and patient survey data, we ran a nonparametric simulation to estimate productivity (probability of working multiplied by earnings if working minus the value of missed work days) before and after THA. We used the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry to obtain revision rates because it contained osteoarthritis-specific THA revision rates by age and gender, which were unavailable in other registry reports. Other model assumptions were extracted from a previously published cost-effectiveness analysis that included a comprehensive literature review. We incorporated all parameter estimates into Markov models to assess THA effects on quality-adjusted life years and lifetime costs. We conducted threshold and sensitivity analyses on direct costs, indirect costs, and revision rates to assess the robustness of our Markov model results. Compared with nonsurgical treatments, THA increased average annual productivity of patients by USD 9503 (95% CI, USD 1446-USD 17,812). We found that THA increases average lifetime direct costs by USD 30,365, which were offset by USD 63,314 in lifetime savings from increased productivity. With net societal savings of USD 32,948 per patient, total lifetime societal savings were estimated at almost USD 10 billion from more than 300,000 THAs performed in the United States each year. Using a Markov model approach, we show that THA produces societal benefits that can offset the costs of THA. When comparing THA with other nonsurgical treatments, policymakers should consider the long-term benefits associated with increased productivity from surgery. Level III, economic and decision analysis.

Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under considerationmore » by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.« less

Estimating the long-term costs of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke for Australia: new evidence derived from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS).

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Carter, Rob; Thrift, Amanda G; Dewey, Helen M

2009-03-01

Stroke is associated with considerable societal costs. Cost-of-illness studies have been undertaken to estimate lifetime costs; most incorporating data up to 12 months after stroke. Costs of stroke, incorporating data collected up to 12 months, have previously been reported from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). NEMESIS now has patient-level resource use data for 5 years. We aimed to recalculate the long-term resource utilization of first-ever stroke patients and compare these to previous estimates obtained using data collected to 12 months. Population structure, life expectancy, and unit prices within the original cost-of-illness models were updated from 1997 to 2004. New Australian stroke survival and recurrence data up to 10 years were incorporated, as well as cross-sectional resource utilization data at 3, 4, and 5 years from NEMESIS. To enable comparisons, 1997 costs were inflated to 2004 prices and discounting was standardized. In 2004, 27 291 ischemic stroke (IS) and 4291 intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke (ICH) first-ever events were estimated. Average annual resource use after 12 months was AU$6022 for IS and AU$3977 for ICH. This is greater than the 1997 estimates for IS (AU$4848) and less than those for ICH (previously AU$10 692). The recalculated average lifetime costs per first-ever case differed for IS (AU$57 106 versus AU$52 855 [1997]), but differed more for ICH (AU$49 995 versus AU$92 308 [1997]). Basing lifetime cost estimates on short-term data overestimated the costs for ICH and underestimated those for IS. Patterns of resource use varied by stroke subtype and, overall, the societal cost impact was large.

Cost of stroke in Australia from a societal perspective: results from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS).

PubMed

Dewey, H M; Thrift, A G; Mihalopoulos, C; Carter, R; Macdonell, R A; McNeil, J J; Donnan, G A

2001-10-01

Accurate information about resource use and costs of stroke is necessary for informed health service planning. The purpose of this study was to determine the patterns of resource use among stroke patients and to estimate the total costs (direct service use and indirect production losses) of stroke (excluding SAH) in Australia for 1997. An incidence-based cost-of-illness model was developed, incorporating data obtained from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). The costs of stroke during the first year after stroke and the present value of total lifetime costs of stroke were estimated. The total first-year costs of all first-ever-in-a lifetime strokes (SAH excluded) that occurred in Australia during 1997 were estimated to be A$555 million (US$420 million), and the present value of lifetime costs was estimated to be A$1.3 billion (US$985 million). The average cost per case during the first 12 months and over a lifetime was A$18 956 (US$14 361) and A$44 428 (US$33 658), respectively. The most important categories of cost during the first year were acute hospitalization (A$154 million), inpatient rehabilitation (A$150 million), and nursing home care (A$63 million). The present value of lifetime indirect costs was estimated to be A$34 million. Similar to other studies, hospital and nursing home costs contributed most to the total cost of stroke (excluding SAH) in Australia. Inpatient rehabilitation accounts for approximately 27% of total first-year costs. Given the magnitude of these costs, investigation of the cost-effectiveness of rehabilitation services should become a priority in this community.

ASSESSMENT OF RADIATION DOSE AND EXCESSIVE LIFE-TIME CANCER RISK FROM THE BUNAIR GRANITE, NORTHERN PAKISTAN.

PubMed

Qureshi, A A; Manzoor, S; Younis, H; Shah, K H; Ahmed, T

2018-01-01

Natural radioactivity was measured in Bunair Granite using high purity germanium gamma-ray spectrometer and compared to world's granites and building materials to access its suitability for the construction purpose. Average gamma-activities of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were found to be 52.41, 58.41 and 1130.12 Bq kg-1, respectively. The Indoor and outdoor radiation indices including excessive life-time cancer risk (ELCR) were calculated. The average indoor ELCR was estimated as 3.49 × 10-3. The average outdoor ELCR was assessed as 0.46 × 10-3. As a basic building material Bunair Granite should be on low propriety. For flooring, facing the buildings and as Table tops, in kitchens and other utilities it is safe. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Drinking water standard for tritium-what's the risk?

PubMed

Kocher, D C; Hoffman, F O

2011-09-01

This paper presents an assessment of lifetime risks of cancer incidence associated with the drinking water standard for tritium established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA); this standard is an annual-average maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 740 Bq L(-1). This risk assessment has several defining characteristics: (1) an accounting of uncertainty in all parameters that relate a given concentration of tritium in drinking water to lifetime risk (except the number of days of consumption of drinking water in a year and the number of years of consumption) and an accounting of correlations of uncertain parameters to obtain probability distributions that represent uncertainty in estimated lifetime risks of cancer incidence; (2) inclusion of a radiation effectiveness factor (REF) to represent an increased biological effectiveness of low-energy electrons emitted in decay of tritium compared with high-energy photons; (3) use of recent estimates of risks of cancer incidence from exposure to high-energy photons, including the dependence of risks on an individual's gender and age, in the BEIR VII report; and (4) inclusion of risks of incidence of skin cancer, principally basal cell carcinoma. By assuming ingestion of tritium in drinking water at the MCL over an average life expectancy of 80 y in females and 75 y in males, 95% credibility intervals of lifetime risks of cancer incidence obtained in this assessment are (0.35, 12) × 10(-4) in females and (0.30, 15) × 10(-4) in males. Mean risks, which are considered to provide the best single measure of expected risks, are about 3 × 10(-4) in both genders. In comparison, USEPA's point estimate of the lifetime risk of cancer incidence, assuming a daily consumption of drinking water of 2 L over an average life expectancy of 75.2 y and excluding an REF for tritium and incidence of skin cancer, is 5.6 × 10(-5). Probability distributions of annual equivalent doses to the whole body associated with the drinking water standard for tritium also were obtained. Means and 97.5th percentiles of maximum annual doses to females and males, which occur at age <1 y, all are less than the annual equivalent dose of 40 μSv used by USEPA to establish the MCL.

Association between lifetime exposure to inorganic arsenic in drinking water and coronary heart disease in Colorado residents.

PubMed

James, Katherine A; Byers, Tim; Hokanson, John E; Meliker, Jaymie R; Zerbe, Gary O; Marshall, Julie A

2015-02-01

Chronic diseases, including coronary heart disease (CHD), have been associated with ingestion of drinking water with high levels of inorganic arsenic (> 1,000 μg/L). However, associations have been inconclusive in populations with lower levels (< 100 μg/L) of inorganic arsenic exposure. We conducted a case-cohort study based on individual estimates of lifetime arsenic exposure to examine the relationship between chronic low-level arsenic exposure and risk of CHD. This study included 555 participants with 96 CHD events diagnosed between 1984 and 1998 for which individual lifetime arsenic exposure estimates were determined using data from structured interviews and secondary data sources to determine lifetime residence, which was linked to a geospatial model of arsenic concentrations in drinking water. These lifetime arsenic exposure estimates were correlated with historically collected urinary arsenic concentrations. A Cox proportional-hazards model with time-dependent CHD risk factors was used to assess the association between time-weighted average (TWA) lifetime exposure to low-level inorganic arsenic in drinking water and incident CHD. We estimated a positive association between low-level inorganic arsenic exposure and CHD risk [hazard ratio (HR): = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.78] per 15 μg/L while adjusting for age, sex, first-degree family history of CHD, and serum low-density lipoprotein levels. The risk of CHD increased monotonically with increasing TWAs for inorganic arsenic exposure in water relative to < 20 μg/L (HR = 1.2, 95% CI: 0.6, 2.2 for 20-30 μg/L; HR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.2, 4.0 for 30-45 μg/L; and HR = 3, 95% CI: 1.1, 9.1 for 45-88 μg/L). Lifetime exposure to low-level inorganic arsenic in drinking water was associated with increased risk for CHD in this population.

Disease burden of chronic hepatitis B among immigrants in Canada.

PubMed

Wong, William W L; Woo, Gloria; Heathcote, E Jenny; Krahn, Murray

2013-03-01

The prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection among immigrants to North America ranges from 2% to 15%, 40% of whom develop advanced liver disease. Screening for hepatitis B surface antigen is not recommended for immigrants. To estimate the disease burden of CHB among immigrants in Canada using Markov cohort models comparing a cohort of immigrants with CHB versus a control cohort of immigrants without CHB. Markov cohort models were used to estimate life years, quality-adjusted life years and lifetime direct medical costs (adjusted to 2008 Canadian dollars) for a cohort of immigrants with CHB living in Canada in 2006, and an age-matched control cohort of immigrants without CHB living in Canada in 2006. Parameter values were derived from the published literature. At the baseline estimate, the model suggested that the cohort of immigrants with CHB lost an average of 4.6 life years (corresponding to 1.5 quality-adjusted life years), had an increased average of $24,249 for lifetime direct medical costs, and had a higher lifetime risk for decompensated cirrhosis (12%), hepatocellular carcinoma (16%) and need for liver transplant (5%) when compared with the control cohort. Results of the present study showed that the socio-economic burden of CHB among immigrants living in Canada is substantial. Governments and health systems need to develop policies that promote early recognition of CHB and raise public awareness regarding hepatitis B to extend the lives of infected immigrants.

Disease burden of chronic hepatitis B among immigrants in Canada

PubMed Central

Wong, William WL; Woo, Gloria; Heathcote, E Jenny; Krahn, Murray

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection among immigrants to North America ranges from 2% to 15%, 40% of whom develop advanced liver disease. Screening for hepatitis B surface antigen is not recommended for immigrants. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the disease burden of CHB among immigrants in Canada using Markov cohort models comparing a cohort of immigrants with CHB versus a control cohort of immigrants without CHB. METHODS: Markov cohort models were used to estimate life years, quality-adjusted life years and lifetime direct medical costs (adjusted to 2008 Canadian dollars) for a cohort of immigrants with CHB living in Canada in 2006, and an age-matched control cohort of immigrants without CHB living in Canada in 2006. Parameter values were derived from the published literature. RESULTS: At the baseline estimate, the model suggested that the cohort of immigrants with CHB lost an average of 4.6 life years (corresponding to 1.5 quality-adjusted life years), had an increased average of $24,249 for lifetime direct medical costs, and had a higher lifetime risk for decompensated cirrhosis (12%), hepatocellular carcinoma (16%) and need for liver transplant (5%) when compared with the control cohort. DISCUSSION: Results of the present study showed that the socio-economic burden of CHB among immigrants living in Canada is sub-stantial. Governments and health systems need to develop policies that promote early recognition of CHB and raise public awareness regarding hepatitis B to extend the lives of infected immigrants. PMID:23516678

Extensive dispersal of Roanoke logperch (Percina rex) inferred from genetic marker data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James H.; Angermeier, Paul; Hallerman, Eric M.

2016-01-01

The dispersal ecology of most stream fishes is poorly characterised, complicating conservation efforts for these species. We used microsatellite DNA marker data to characterise dispersal patterns and effective population size (Ne) for a population of Roanoke logperchPercina rex, an endangered darter (Percidae). Juveniles and candidate parents were sampled for 2 years at sites throughout the Roanoke River watershed. Dispersal was inferred via genetic assignment tests (ATs), pedigree reconstruction (PR) and estimation of lifetime dispersal distance under a genetic isolation-by-distance model. Estimates of Ne varied from 105 to 1218 individuals, depending on the estimation method. Based on PR, polygamy was frequent in parents of both sexes, with individuals spawning with an average of 2.4 mates. The sample contained 61 half-sibling pairs, but only one parent–offspring pair and no full-sib pairs, which limited our ability to discriminate natal dispersal of juveniles from breeding dispersal of their parents between spawning events. Nonetheless, all methods indicated extensive dispersal. The AT indicated unrestricted dispersal among sites ≤15 km apart, while siblings inferred by the PR were captured an average of 14 km and up to 55 km apart. Model-based estimates of median lifetime dispersal distance (6–24 km, depending on assumptions) bracketed AT and PR estimates, indicating that widely dispersed individuals do, on average, contribute to gene flow. Extensive dispersal of P. rex suggests that darters and other small benthic stream fishes may be unexpectedly mobile. Monitoring and management activities for such populations should encompass entire watersheds to fully capture population dynamics.

Colorectal Cancer and Long-Term Exposure to Trihalomethanes in Drinking Water: A Multicenter Case-Control Study in Spain and Italy.

PubMed

Villanueva, Cristina M; Gracia-Lavedan, Esther; Bosetti, Cristina; Righi, Elena; Molina, Antonio José; Martín, Vicente; Boldo, Elena; Aragonés, Nuria; Perez-Gomez, Beatriz; Pollan, Marina; Acebo, Ines Gomez; Altzibar, Jone M; Zabala, Ana Jiménez; Ardanaz, Eva; Peiró, Rosana; Tardón, Adonina; Chirlaque, Maria Dolores; Tavani, Alessandra; Polesel, Jerry; Serraino, Diego; Pisa, Federica; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Espinosa, Ana; Espejo-Herrera, Nadia; Palau, Margarita; Moreno, Victor; La Vecchia, Carlo; Aggazzotti, Gabriella; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Kogevinas, Manolis

2017-01-01

Evidence on the association between colorectal cancer and exposure to disinfection by-products in drinking water is inconsistent. We assessed long-term exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs), the most prevalent group of chlorination by-products, to evaluate the association with colorectal cancer. A multicenter case-control study was conducted in Spain and Italy in 2008-2013. Hospital-based incident cases and population-based (Spain) and hospital-based (Italy) controls were interviewed to ascertain residential histories, type of water consumed in each residence, frequency and duration of showering/bathing, and major recognized risk factors for colorectal cancer. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for colorectal cancer in association with quartiles of estimated average lifetime THM concentrations in each participant's residential tap water (micrograms/liter; from age 18 to 2 years before the interview) and estimated average lifetime THM ingestion from drinking residential tap water (micrograms/day). We analyzed 2,047 cases and 3,718 controls. Median values (ranges) for average lifetime residential tap water concentrations of total THMs, chloroform, and brominated THMs were 30 (0-174), 17 (0-63), and 9 (0-145) μg/L, respectively. Total THM concentration in residential tap water was not associated with colorectal cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.66, 1.28 for highest vs. lowest quartile), but chloroform concentrations were inversely associated (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.41 for highest vs. lowest quartile). Brominated THM concentrations showed a positive association among men in the highest versus the lowest quartile (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.83, 2.46). Patterns of association were similar for estimated average THM ingestion through residential water consumption. We did not find clear evidence of an association between detailed estimates of lifetime total THM exposure and colorectal cancer in our large case-control study population. Negative associations with chloroform concentrations and ingestion suggest differences among specific THMs, but these findings should be confirmed in other study populations. Citation: Villanueva CM, Gracia-Lavedan E, Bosetti C, Righi E, Molina AJ, Martín V, Boldo E, Aragonés N, Perez-Gomez B, Pollan M, Gomez Acebo I, Altzibar JM, Jiménez Zabala A, Ardanaz E, Peiró R, Tardón A, Chirlaque MD, Tavani A, Polesel J, Serraino D, Pisa F, Castaño-Vinyals G, Espinosa A, Espejo-Herrera N, Palau M, Moreno V, La Vecchia C, Aggazzotti G, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Kogevinas M. 2017. Colorectal cancer and long-term exposure to trihalomethanes in drinking water: a multicenter case---control study in Spain and Italy. Environ Health Perspect 125:56-65; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP155.

Colorectal Cancer and Long-Term Exposure to Trihalomethanes in Drinking Water: A Multicenter Case–Control Study in Spain and Italy

PubMed Central

Villanueva, Cristina M.; Gracia-Lavedan, Esther; Bosetti, Cristina; Righi, Elena; Molina, Antonio José; Martín, Vicente; Boldo, Elena; Aragonés, Nuria; Perez-Gomez, Beatriz; Pollan, Marina; Acebo, Ines Gomez; Altzibar, Jone M.; Zabala, Ana Jiménez; Ardanaz, Eva; Peiró, Rosana; Tardón, Adonina; Chirlaque, Maria Dolores; Tavani, Alessandra; Polesel, Jerry; Serraino, Diego; Pisa, Federica; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Espinosa, Ana; Espejo-Herrera, Nadia; Palau, Margarita; Moreno, Victor; La Vecchia, Carlo; Aggazzotti, Gabriella; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Kogevinas, Manolis

2016-01-01

Background: Evidence on the association between colorectal cancer and exposure to disinfection by-products in drinking water is inconsistent. Objectives: We assessed long-term exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs), the most prevalent group of chlorination by-products, to evaluate the association with colorectal cancer. Methods: A multicenter case–control study was conducted in Spain and Italy in 2008–2013. Hospital-based incident cases and population-based (Spain) and hospital-based (Italy) controls were interviewed to ascertain residential histories, type of water consumed in each residence, frequency and duration of showering/bathing, and major recognized risk factors for colorectal cancer. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for colorectal cancer in association with quartiles of estimated average lifetime THM concentrations in each participant’s residential tap water (micrograms/liter; from age 18 to 2 years before the interview) and estimated average lifetime THM ingestion from drinking residential tap water (micrograms/day). Results: We analyzed 2,047 cases and 3,718 controls. Median values (ranges) for average lifetime residential tap water concentrations of total THMs, chloroform, and brominated THMs were 30 (0–174), 17 (0–63), and 9 (0–145) μg/L, respectively. Total THM concentration in residential tap water was not associated with colorectal cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.66, 1.28 for highest vs. lowest quartile), but chloroform concentrations were inversely associated (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.41 for highest vs. lowest quartile). Brominated THM concentrations showed a positive association among men in the highest versus the lowest quartile (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.83, 2.46). Patterns of association were similar for estimated average THM ingestion through residential water consumption. Conclusions: We did not find clear evidence of an association between detailed estimates of lifetime total THM exposure and colorectal cancer in our large case–control study population. Negative associations with chloroform concentrations and ingestion suggest differences among specific THMs, but these findings should be confirmed in other study populations. Citation: Villanueva CM, Gracia-Lavedan E, Bosetti C, Righi E, Molina AJ, Martín V, Boldo E, Aragonés N, Perez-Gomez B, Pollan M, Gomez Acebo I, Altzibar JM, Jiménez Zabala A, Ardanaz E, Peiró R, Tardón A, Chirlaque MD, Tavani A, Polesel J, Serraino D, Pisa F, Castaño-Vinyals G, Espinosa A, Espejo-Herrera N, Palau M, Moreno V, La Vecchia C, Aggazzotti G, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Kogevinas M. 2017. Colorectal cancer and long-term exposure to trihalomethanes in drinking water: a multicenter case–––control study in Spain and Italy. Environ Health Perspect 125:56–65; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP155 PMID:27383820

Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

Decorrelation Times of Photospheric Fields and Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welsch, B. T.; Kusano, K.; Yamamoto, T. T.; Muglach, K.

2012-01-01

We use autocorrelation to investigate evolution in flow fields inferred by applying Fourier Local Correlation Tracking (FLCT) to a sequence of high-resolution (0.3 "), high-cadence (approx = 2 min) line-of-sight magnetograms of NOAA active region (AR) 10930 recorded by the Narrowband Filter Imager (NFI) of the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard the Hinode satellite over 12 - 13 December 2006. To baseline the timescales of flow evolution, we also autocorrelated the magnetograms, at several spatial binnings, to characterize the lifetimes of active region magnetic structures versus spatial scale. Autocorrelation of flow maps can be used to optimize tracking parameters, to understand tracking algorithms f susceptibility to noise, and to estimate flow lifetimes. Tracking parameters varied include: time interval Delta t between magnetogram pairs tracked, spatial binning applied to the magnetograms, and windowing parameter sigma used in FLCT. Flow structures vary over a range of spatial and temporal scales (including unresolved scales), so tracked flows represent a local average of the flow over a particular range of space and time. We define flow lifetime to be the flow decorrelation time, tau . For Delta t > tau, tracking results represent the average velocity over one or more flow lifetimes. We analyze lifetimes of flow components, divergences, and curls as functions of magnetic field strength and spatial scale. We find a significant trend of increasing lifetimes of flow components, divergences, and curls with field strength, consistent with Lorentz forces partially governing flows in the active photosphere, as well as strong trends of increasing flow lifetime and decreasing magnitudes with increases in both spatial scale and Delta t.

Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

2009-07-01

Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

Costs of health services utilization of people with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder by sex and age group in Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Thanh, Nguyen Xuan; Jonsson, Egon

2014-01-01

To estimate the annual health services utilization (HSU) cost per person with FASD by sex and age; the lifetime HSU cost per person with FASD by sex, and the annual HSU cost of FASD for Alberta by sex. The HSU costs of FASD including physician, outpatient, and inpatient services were described by sex and age. The costs per person-year were estimated by multiplying the average number of hospitalizations, outpatient visits, and physician visits per person-year by the average cost of each service. The annual HSU cost of FASD for Alberta was estimated by multiplying the annual HSU cost per person with FASD by the number of people living with FASD in Alberta in 2012. The lifetime HSU cost per person with FASD was estimated by sex for several lifespans ranging from 10 to 70 years. The annual cost of HSU for people with FASD in Alberta was $259 million, of which FAS accounted for 26%. The annual HSU cost per person with FAS and FASD were $6,200 and $5,600, respectively. The incremental annual HSU cost per person with FAS is $4,100 and with FASD is $3,400 as compared to the general population. The lifetime (70 years) HSU cost per person with FAS was $506,000 and with FASD was $245,000. Males had higher HSU costs than females. HSU costs of FAS and FASD varied greatly by age group. The findings suggest that FASD is a public health issue in Alberta and can be used for economic evaluations of FASD intervention and/or prevention in the province.

Use of a crop and job specific exposure matrix for retrospective assessment of long-term exposure in studies of chronic neurotoxic effects of agrichemicals

PubMed Central

London, L.; Myers, J. E.

1998-01-01

RATIONALE: Job exposure matrices (JEMs) are widely used in occupational epidemiology, particularly when biological or environmental monitoring data are scanty. However, as with most exposure estimates, JEMs may be vulnerable to misclassification. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the long term exposure of farm workers based on a JEM developed for use in a study of the neurotoxic effects of organophosphates and to evaluate the repeatability and validity of the JEM. METHODS: A JEM was constructed with secondary data from industry and expert opinion of the estimate of agrichemical exposure within every possible job activity in the JEM to weight job days for exposure to organophosphates. Cumulative lifetime and average intensity exposure of organophosphate exposure were calculated for 163 pesticide applicators and 84 controls. Repeat questionnaires were given to 29 participants three months later to test repeatability of measurements. The ability of JEM based exposure to predict a known marker of organophosphate exposure was used to validate the JEM. RESULTS: Cumulative lifetime exposure as measured in kg organophosphate exposure, was significantly associated with erythrocyte cholinesterase concentrations (partial r2 = 5%; p < 0.01), controlled for a range of confounders. Repeatability in a subsample of 29 workers of the estimates of cumulative (Pearson's r = 0.67; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.41 to 0.83), and average lifetime intensity of exposure (Pearson's r = 0.60 95% CI 0.31 to 0.79) was adequate. CONCLUSION: The JEM seems promising for farming settings, particularly in developing countries where data on chemical application and biological monitoring are unavailable.   PMID:9624271

The costs of inequality: whole-population modelling study of lifetime inpatient hospital costs in the English National Health Service by level of neighbourhood deprivation

PubMed Central

Doran, Tim; Cookson, Richard

2016-01-01

Background There are substantial socioeconomic inequalities in both life expectancy and healthcare use in England. In this study, we describe how these two sets of inequalities interact by estimating the social gradient in hospital costs across the life course. Methods Hospital episode statistics, population and index of multiple deprivation data were combined at lower-layer super output area level to estimate inpatient hospital costs for 2011/2012 by age, sex and deprivation quintile. Survival curves were estimated for each of the deprivation groups and used to estimate expected annual costs and cumulative lifetime costs. Results A steep social gradient was observed in overall inpatient hospital admissions, with rates ranging from 31 298/100 000 population in the most affluent fifth of areas to 43 385 in the most deprived fifth. This gradient was steeper for emergency than for elective admissions. The total cost associated with this inequality in 2011/2012 was £4.8 billion. A social gradient was also observed in the modelled lifetime costs where the lower life expectancy was not sufficient to outweigh the higher average costs in the more deprived populations. Lifetime costs for women were 14% greater than for men, due to higher costs in the reproductive years and greater life expectancy. Conclusions Socioeconomic inequalities result in increased morbidity and decreased life expectancy. Interventions to reduce inequality and improve health in more deprived neighbourhoods have the potential to save money for health systems not only within years but across peoples’ entire lifetimes, despite increased costs due to longer life expectancies. PMID:27189975

A multivariate cure model for left-censored and right-censored data with application to colorectal cancer screening patterns.

PubMed

Hagar, Yolanda C; Harvey, Danielle J; Beckett, Laurel A

2016-08-30

We develop a multivariate cure survival model to estimate lifetime patterns of colorectal cancer screening. Screening data cover long periods of time, with sparse observations for each person. Some events may occur before the study begins or after the study ends, so the data are both left-censored and right-censored, and some individuals are never screened (the 'cured' population). We propose a multivariate parametric cure model that can be used with left-censored and right-censored data. Our model allows for the estimation of the time to screening as well as the average number of times individuals will be screened. We calculate likelihood functions based on the observations for each subject using a distribution that accounts for within-subject correlation and estimate parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We apply our methods to the estimation of lifetime colorectal cancer screening behavior in the SEER-Medicare data set. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe: a population-based study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

PubMed

van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Finne, Partik; Heaf, James; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Kramar, Reinhard; Massy, Ziad A; De Meester, Johan; Traynor, Jamie P; Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Wetzels, Jack F M; Jager, Kitty J

2017-02-01

Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European countries. We defined lifetime risk of RRT as the cumulative incidence of RRT up to age 90 years. We obtained RRT incidence rates per million population by 5-year age groups and sex using data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry, and used these to estimate the cumulative incidence of RRT, adjusting for competing mortality risk. Lifetime risk of RRT varied from 0.44% to 2.05% at age 20 years and from 0.17% to 1.59% at age 70 years across countries, and was twice as high in men as in women. Lifetime RRT risk decreased with age, ranging from an average of 0.77% to 0.44% in 20- to- 70-year-old women, and from 1.45% to 0.96% in 20- to- 70-year-old men. The lifetime risk of RRT increased slightly over the past decade, more so in men than in women. However, it appears to have stabilized or even decreased slightly in more recent years. The lifetime risk of RRT decreased with age, was lower in women as compared with men of equal age and varied considerably throughout Europe. Given the substantial differences in lifetime risk of RRT between the USA and Europe, country-specific estimates should be used in the evaluation and communication of the risk of RRT for potential living kidney donors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Star-formation rate in compact star-forming galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izotova, I. Y.; Izotov, Y. I.

2018-03-01

We use the data for the Hβ emission-line, far-ultraviolet (FUV) and mid-infrared 22 μm continuum luminosities to estimate star formation rates < SFR > averaged over the galaxy lifetime for a sample of about 14000 bursting compact star-forming galaxies (CSFGs) selected from the Data Release 12 (DR12) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The average coefficient linking < SFR > and the star formation rate SFR0 derived from the Hβ luminosity at zero starburst age is found to be 0.04. We compare < SFR > s with some commonly used SFRs which are derived adopting a continuous star formation during a period of {˜} 100 Myr, and find that the latter ones are 2-3 times higher. It is shown that the relations between SFRs derived using a geometric mean of two star-formation indicators in the UV and IR ranges and reduced to zero starburst age have considerably lower dispersion compared to those with single star-formation indicators. We suggest that our relations for < SFR > determination are more appropriate for CSFGs because they take into account a proper temporal evolution of their luminosities. On the other hand, we show that commonly used SFR relations can be applied for approximate estimation within a factor of {˜} 2 of the < SFR > averaged over the lifetime of the bursting compact galaxy.

Single-molecule detection by two-photon excitation of fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zander, Christoph; Brand, Leif; Eggeling, C.; Drexhage, Karl-Heinz; Seidel, Claus A. M.

1997-05-01

Using a mode-locked titanium: sapphire laser at 700 nm for two-photon excitation we studied fluorescence bursts from individual coumarin 120 molecules in water and triacetin. Fluorescence lifetimes and multichannel scaler traces have been measured simultaneously. Due to the fact that scattered excitation light as well as Raman scattered photons can be suppressed by a short-pass filter a very low background level was achieved. To identify the fluorophore by its characteristic fluorescence lifetime the time-resolved fluorescence signals were analyzed by a maximum likelihood estimator. The obtained average fluorescence lifetimes (tau) av equals 4.8 +/- 1.2 ns for coumarin 120 in water and (tau) av equals 3.3 +/- 0.6 for coumarin 120 in triacetin are in good agreement with results obtained from separate measurements at higher concentrations.

Estimation of benefit of prevention of occupational cancer for comparative risk assessment: methods and examples

PubMed Central

Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Chang, Yu-Yin; Liou, Saou-Hsing

2012-01-01

Objectives To quantify the life years gained and financial savings by preventing a case of occupational cancer. Methods The authors retrieved data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry and linked them with the National Mortality Registry to estimate the survival functions for major occupational cancers: lung, pleural mesothelioma, urinary bladder and leukaemia. Assuming a constant excess hazard for each type of cancer, the authors extrapolated lifetime survival functions by the Monte Carlo method. For each patient with cancer, the authors simulated an age- and gender-matched person without cancer based on vital statistics of Taiwan to estimate life expectancy and expected years of life lost (EYLL). By using the reimbursement data from the National Health Insurance Research Database, the authors calculated the average monthly healthcare expenditures, which were summed to estimate the lifetime healthcare expenditures after adjusting for the corresponding monthly survival probability. Results A total of 51 408, 136, 12 891 and 5285 new cases of lung, pleural mesothelioma, bladder and leukaemia cancers, respectively, were identified during 1997–2005 and followed until the end of 2007. The EYLL was predicted to be 13.7±0.1, 18.9±0.7, 4.7±0.3 and 19.4±0.5 years for these cancers, respectively, and the lifetime healthcare expenditures with a 3% annual discount were predicted to be US$22 359, US$14 900, US$51 987 and US$59 741, respectively. Conclusions The burden of these occupational cancers, in terms of EYLL and lifetime healthcare expenditures, was substantial. Such estimates may provide useful empirical evidence for comparative risk assessment that can be applied in health policy-making and clinical decision-making. PMID:22576592

Estimation of benefit of prevention of occupational cancer for comparative risk assessment: methods and examples.

PubMed

Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Chang, Yu-Yin; Liou, Saou-Hsing; Wang, Jung-Der

2012-08-01

To quantify the life years gained and financial savings by preventing a case of occupational cancer. The authors retrieved data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry and linked them with the National Mortality Registry to estimate the survival functions for major occupational cancers: lung, pleural mesothelioma, urinary bladder and leukaemia. Assuming a constant excess hazard for each type of cancer, the authors extrapolated lifetime survival functions by the Monte Carlo method. For each patient with cancer, the authors simulated an age- and gender-matched person without cancer based on vital statistics of Taiwan to estimate life expectancy and expected years of life lost (EYLL). By using the reimbursement data from the National Health Insurance Research Database, the authors calculated the average monthly healthcare expenditures, which were summed to estimate the lifetime healthcare expenditures after adjusting for the corresponding monthly survival probability. A total of 51,408, 136, 12,891 and 5285 new cases of lung, pleural mesothelioma, bladder and leukaemia cancers, respectively, were identified during 1997-2005 and followed until the end of 2007. The EYLL was predicted to be 13.7±0.1, 18.9±0.7, 4.7±0.3 and 19.4±0.5 years for these cancers, respectively, and the lifetime healthcare expenditures with a 3% annual discount were predicted to be US$22,359, US$14,900, US$51,987 and US$59,741, respectively. The burden of these occupational cancers, in terms of EYLL and lifetime healthcare expenditures, was substantial. Such estimates may provide useful empirical evidence for comparative risk assessment that can be applied in health policy-making and clinical decision-making.

Volatile organic compound measurements at Trinidad Head, California, during ITCT 2K2: Analysis of sources, atmospheric composition, and aerosol residence times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millet, Dylan B.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Allan, James D.; Bates, Timothy S.; Boudries, Hacene; Bower, Keith N.; Coe, Hugh; Ma, Yilin; McKay, Megan; Quinn, Patricia K.; Sullivan, Amy; Weber, Rodney J.; Worsnop, Douglas R.

2004-12-01

We report hourly in-situ observations of C1-C8 speciated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) obtained at Trinidad Head CA in April and May 2002 as part of the NOAA Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation study. Factor analysis of the VOC data set was used to define the dominant processes driving atmospheric chemical composition at the site, and to characterize the sources for measured species. Strong decreases in background concentration were observed for several of the VOCs during the experiment due to seasonal changes in OH concentration. CO was the most important contributor to the total measured OH reactivity at the site at all times. Oxygenated VOCs were the primary component of both the total VOC burden and of the VOC OH reactivity, and their relative importance was enhanced under conditions when local source contributions were minimal. VOC variability exhibited a strong dependence on residence time (slnX = 1.55τ-0.44, r2 = 0.98; where slnX is the standard deviation of the natural logarithm of the mixing ratio), and this relationship was used, in conjunction with measurements of 222Rn, to estimate the average OH concentration during the study period (6.1 × 105 molec/cm3). We also employed the variability-lifetime relationship defined by the VOC data set to estimate submicron aerosol residence times as a function of chemical composition. Two independent measures of aerosol chemical composition yielded consistent residence time estimates. Lifetimes calculated in this manner were between 3-7 days for aerosol nitrate, organics, sulfate, and ammonium. The lifetime estimate for methane sulfonic acid (˜12 days) was slightly outside of this range. The lifetime of the total aerosol number density was estimated at 9.8 days.

The Relationship between Age at First Birth and Mother's Lifetime Earnings: Evidence from Danish Data

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Having children creates career interruptions and reductions in labor income for women. This study documents the relation between the age at first birth (AFB) and women’s labor income. We study these dynamics in the short run (i.e. ratio between labor income at AFB and two years prior to AFB) and long run (i.e., positive/negative differences in total lifetime labor income). Methods Using unique Danish administrative register data for the entire Danish population, we estimate the age-income profiles separately for college and non-college women conditional on marital status, and mothers’ age at first birth (AFB). We compute the lifetime labor income differentials by taking the differences between the labor income of women with and without children at each AFB. Results The short-run loss in labor income, defined as the difference in percentages between the income earned two years prior to AFB and income earned at AFB, ranges from 37% to 65% for college women and from 40% to 53% for non-college women. These losses decrease monotonically with respect to AFB for both education groups. Our results on the lifetime labor income differentials between mothers and women without children also show a net effect that is monotonic (from negative to positive) in AFB. With AFB<25, the lifetime labor income loss for college women is -204% of their average annual labor income and this figure is -252% for non-college women. There are lifetime labor income gains with AFB>31. The largest gains for college women are 13% of their average annual income and this figure is 50% for non-college women. Conclusion Women have a large and unambiguous short-run reduction in labor income at their AFB. In terms of lifetime labor income, both college and non-college women, compared to childless women, are associated with lower income of more than twice their respective average annual income when bearing a child at AFB<25. In other words, women with AFB<25 are associated with a lower lifetime income of more than two years of annual labor income. The lifetime labor incomes for college and non-college women associated with AFB>31 are relatively higher. PMID:26799481

Expected lifetime numbers, risks, and burden of osteoporotic fractures for 50-year old Chinese women: a discrete event simulation incorporating FRAX.

PubMed

Jiang, Yawen; Ni, Weiyi

2016-11-01

This work was undertaken to provide an estimation of expected lifetime numbers, risks, and burden of fractures for 50-year-old Chinese women. A discrete event simulation model was developed to simulate the lifetime fractures of 50-year-old Chinese women at average risk of osteoporotic fracture. Main events in the model included hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture. Fracture risks were calculated using the FRAX ® tool. Simulations of 50-year-old Chinese women without fracture risks were also carried out as a comparison to determine the burden of fractures. A 50-year-old Chinese woman at average risk of fracture is expected to experience 0.135 (95 % CI: 0.134-0.137) hip fractures, 0.120 (95 % CI: 0.119-0.122) clinical vertebral fractures, 0.095 (95 % CI: 0.094-0.096) wrist fractures, 0.079 (95 % CI: 0.078-0.080) humerus fractures, and 0.407 (95 % CI: 0.404-0.410) other fractures over the remainder of her life. The residual lifetime risk of any fracture, hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture for a 50-year-old Chinese woman is 37.36, 11.77, 10.47, 8.61, 7.30, and 27.80 %, respectively. The fracture-attributable excess quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss and lifetime costs are estimated at 0.11 QALYs (95 % CI: 0.00-0.22 QALYs) and US $714.61 (95 % CI: US $709.20-720.02), totaling a net monetary benefit loss of US $1,104.43 (95 % CI: US $904.09-1,304.78). Chinese women 50 years of age are at high risk of osteoporotic fracture, and the expected economic and quality-of-life burden attributable to osteoporotic fractures among Chinese women is substantial.

Fluoride in drinking water and risk of hip fracture in the UK: a case-control study.

PubMed

Hillier, S; Cooper, C; Kellingray, S; Russell, G; Hughes, H; Coggon, D

2000-01-22

Although the benefits of water fluoridation for dental health are widely accepted, concerns remain about possible adverse effects, particularly effects on bone. Several investigators have suggested increased rates of hip fracture in places with high concentrations of fluoride in drinking water, but this finding has not been consistent, possibly because of unrecognised confounding effects. We did a case-control study of men and women aged 50 years and older from the English county of Cleveland, and compared patients with hip fracture with community controls. Current addresses were ascertained for all participants; for those who agreed to an interview and who passed a mental test, more detailed information was obtained about lifetime residential history and exposure to other known and suspected risk factors for hip fracture. Exposures to fluoride in water were estimated from the residential histories and from information provided by water suppliers. Analysis was by logistic regression. 914 cases and 1196 controls were identified, of whom 514 and 527, respectively, were interviewed. Among those interviewed, hip fracture was strongly associated with low body-mass index (p for trend <0.001) and physical inactivity (p for trend <0.001). Estimated average lifetime exposure to fluoride in drinking water ranged from 0.15 to 1.79 ppm. Current residence in Hartlepool was a good indicator for high lifetime exposure to fluoride. After adjustment for potential confounders, the odds ratio associated with an average lifetime exposure to fluoride > or =0.9 ppm was 1.0 [95% CI 0.7-1.5]. There is a low risk of hip fracture for people ingesting fluoride in drinking water at concentrations of about 1 ppm. This low risk should not be a reason for withholding fluoridation of water supplies.

Nondestructive monitoring of fatigue damage evolution in austenitic stainless steel by positron-lifetime measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzwarth, Uwe; Schaaff, Petra

2004-03-01

Positron-lifetime measurements have been performed on austenitic stainless steel during (i) stress- and (ii) strain-controlled fatigue experiments for different applied stress and strain amplitudes, respectively. For this purpose a generator-detector assembly with a 72Se/72As positron generator [maximum activity 25 μCi (0.9 MBq)] has been mounted on mechanical testing machines in order to measure the positron lifetime without removing the specimens from the load train. The average positron lifetime has been determined by a β+-γ coincidence. The feasibility to use the average positron lifetime for monitoring the evolution of fatigue damage and to predict early failure has been examined. In strain- and stress-controlled experiments the average positron lifetime shows a pronounced increase within the first 10% and 40% of the fatigue life, respectively. In stress-controlled experiments the average positron lifetime at failure depends significantly on the applied stress amplitude. In strain-controlled experiments significantly different positron lifetimes for different applied plastic strain amplitudes are obtained within the first 1.000 fatigue cycles, whereas differences get wiped out during further cycling until failure.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters and Trends for Length of Productive Life and Lifetime Production Traits in a Commercial Landrace and Yorkshire Swine Population in Northern Thailand.

PubMed

Noppibool, Udomsak; Elzo, Mauricio A; Koonawootrittriron, Skorn; Suwanasopee, Thanathip

2016-09-01

The objective of this research was to estimate genetic parameters and trends for length of productive life (LPL), lifetime number of piglets born alive (LBA), lifetime number of piglets weaned (LPW), lifetime litter birth weight (LBW), and lifetime litter weaning weight (LWW) in a commercial swine farm in Northern Thailand. Data were gathered during a 24-year period from July 1989 to August 2013. A total of 3,109 phenotypic records from 2,271 Landrace (L) and 838 Yorkshire sows (Y) were analyzed. Variance and covariance components, heritabilities and correlations were estimated using an Average Information Restricted Maximum Likelihood (AIREML) procedure. The 5-trait animal model contained the fixed effects of first farrowing year-season, breed group, and age at first farrowing. Random effects were sow and residual. Estimates of heritabilities were medium for all five traits (0.17±0.04 for LPL and LBA to 0.20±0.04 for LPW). Genetic correlations among these traits were high, positive, and favorable (p<0.05), ranging from 0.93±0.02 (LPL-LWW) to 0.99±0.02 (LPL-LPW). Sow genetic trends were non-significant for LPL and all lifetime production traits. Sire genetic trends were negative and significant for LPL (-2.54±0.65 d/yr; p = 0.0007), LBA (-0.12±0.04 piglets/yr; p = 0.0073), LPW (-0.14±0.04 piglets/yr; p = 0.0037), LBW (-0.13±0.06 kg/yr; p = 0.0487), and LWW (-0.69±0.31 kg/yr; p = 0.0365). Dam genetic trends were positive, small and significant for all traits (1.04±0.42 d/yr for LPL, p = 0.0217; 0.16±0.03 piglets/yr for LBA, p<0.0001; 0.12±0.03 piglets/yr for LPW, p = 0.0002; 0.29±0.04 kg/yr for LBW, p<0.0001 and 1.23±0.19 kg/yr for LWW, p<0.0001). Thus, the selection program in this commercial herd managed to improve both LPL and lifetime productive traits in sires and dams. It was ineffective to improve LPL and lifetime productive traits in sows.

Lifetime earnings patterns, the distribution of future Social Security benefits, and the impact of pension reform.

PubMed

Bosworth, B; Burtless, G; Steuerle, E

2000-01-01

In order to assess the effect of Social Security reform on current and future workers, it is essential to accurately characterize the initial situations of representative workers affected by reform. For the purpose of analyzing typical reforms, the most important characteristic of a worker is the level and pattern of his or her preretirement earnings. Under the current system, pensions are determined largely by the level of the workers' earnings averaged over their work life. However, several reform proposals would create individual retirement accounts for which the pension would depend on the investment accumulation within the account. Thus, the pension would also depend on the timing of the contributions into the account and hence on the exact shape of the worker's lifetime earnings profile. Most analysis of the distributional impact of reform has focused, however, on calculating benefit changes among a handful of hypothetical workers whose relative earnings are constant over their work life. The earnings levels are not necessarily chosen to represent the situations of workers who have typical or truly representative earnings patterns. Consequently, the results of such analysis can be misleading, especially if reform involves introducing a fundamentally new kind of pension formula. This article presents two broad approaches to creating representative earnings profiles for policy evaluation. First, we use standard econometric methods to predict future earnings for a representative sample of workers drawn from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Our statistical estimates are based on a simple representation of typical career earnings paths and a fixed-effect statistical specification. Because our estimation file contains information on each worker's annual earnings from 1951 through 1996 as reported in the Social Security Administration's earnings files, we have a record (though an incomplete one) of the actual earnings that will be used to determine future benefit payments. Our estimates of the earnings function permit us to make highly differentiated predictions of future earnings for each member of our sample. By combining the historical information on individual earnings with our prediction of future earnings up through the normal retirement age, our first approach produces tens of thousands of predicted career earnings paths that can be used in microsimulation policy analysis. Our second approach to creating lifetime earnings profiles is similar in some ways to the traditional method. For example, it is based on the creation of only a handful of "stylized" career earnings patterns. An important difference with the traditional method, however, is that we define the career earnings patterns so that they are truly representative of patterns observed in the workforce. We use simple mathematical formulas to characterize each stylized earnings pattern, and we then produce estimates of the average path of annual earnings for workers whose career earning path falls within each of the stylized patterns we have defined. Finally, we calculate the percentage of workers in successive birth-year cohorts who have earnings profiles that match each of the stylized earnings patterns. Although this method may seem simple, it allows the analyst to create stylized earnings patterns that are widely varied but still representative of earnings patterns observed among sizable groups of U.S. workers. The effects of policy reforms can then be calculated for workers with each of the stylized earnings patterns. Our analysis of U.S. lifetime earnings patterns and of the impact of selected policy reforms produces a number of findings about past trends in earnings, typical earnings patterns in the population, and the potential impact of reform. The analysis focuses on men and women born between 1931 and 1960. Along with earlier analysts, we find that men earn substantially higher lifetime wages than women and typically attain their peak career earnings at a somewhat earlier age. However, the difference in career earnings patterns between men and women has narrowed dramatically over time. Workers with greater educational attainment earn substantially higher wages than those with less education, and they attain their peak career earnings later in life. For example, among men with the least education, peak earnings are often attained around or even before age 40, whereas many men with substantial postsecondary schooling do not reach their peak career earnings until after 50. Our tabulations of the lifetime earnings profiles of the oldest cohorts (born around 1930) and projections of the earnings of the youngest profiles (born around 1960) imply that the inequality of lifetime earnings has increased noticeably over time. Women in the top one-fifth of female earners and men in the top one-fifth of male earners are predicted to receive a growing multiple of the economy-wide average wage during their career. Women born between 1931 and 1935 who were in the top fifth of female earners had lifetime average earnings that were approximately equal to the average economy-wide wage. In contrast, women born after 1951 who were in the top fifth of earners are predicted to earn almost 50 percent more, that is, roughly 150 percent of the economy-wide average wage. Women with a lower rank in the female earnings distribution will also see gains in their lifetime average earnings, but their gains are predicted to be proportionately much smaller than those of women with a high rank in the distribution. Men with high earnings are also predicted to enjoy substantial gains in their relative lifetime earnings, while men with a lower rank in the earnings distribution will probably see a significant erosion in their typical wages relative to the economy-wide average wage. That is mainly the result of a sharp decline in the relative earnings of low-wage men born after 1950. In creating stylized earnings profiles that are representative of those of significant minorities of U.S. workers, we emphasized three critical elements of the earnings path: the average level of earnings over a worker's career, the upward or downward trend in earnings from the worker's 30s through his or her early 60s, and the "sagging" or "hump-shaped" profile of earnings over the worker's career. That classification scheme yields 27 characteristic patterns of lifetime earnings. Surprisingly, the differnce between men and women within each of those categories is quite modest. The main difference between men and women is in the proportions of workers who fall in each category. Only 14 percent of men born between 1931 and 1940 fall in earnings categories with the lowest one-third of lifetime earnings, whereas 53 percent of women born in those years have low-average-earnings profiles. On the other hand, women born in those years are more likely to have a rising trend in lifetime earnings, while men are more likely to have a declining trend. We find that the distribution of lifetime earnings contains relatively more workers with below-average earnings and relatively fewer with very high earnings than assumed in the Social Security Administration's traditional policy analysis. For example, the "low earner" traditionally assumed by the Office of the Chief Actuary is assigned a level of average lifetime earnings that we find to be higher than the average earnings of persons in the bottom one-third of the lifetime earnings distribution. The stylized earnings profiles developed here can be used for policy evaluation, and the results can be compared with those from the more traditional analysis. That comparison produces several notable findings. Because earnings profiles that are actually representative of the population tend to have lower average earnings than assumed in the traditional analysis, workers typically accumulate somewhat less Social Security wealth than implied in the traditional analysis. On the other hand, because the basic benefit formula is tilted in favor of lower-income workers, the internal rate of return on Social Security contributions is somewhat higher than detected in the traditional analysis. Moreover, the primary insurance amount measured as a percentage of the worker's average indexed earnings tends to be higher than implied by the traditional analysis. Finally, the stylized earnings patterns can be used to compare benefit levels enjoyed by workers under the traditional Social Security formula and under an alternative plan based on individual investment accounts. That comparison shows, as expected, that the traditional formula favors low-wage workers and one-earner couples, while an investment account favors single, high-wage workers. Comparing two workers with the same lifetime average earnings, the traditional formula favors workers with rising earnings profiles (that is, with lifetime earnings heavily concentrated at the end of their career), while investment account pensions favor workers with declining earnings profiles (that is, with earnings concentrated early in their career).

Configurational entropy as a lifetime predictor and pattern discriminator for oscillons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleiser, Marcelo; Stephens, Michelle; Sowinski, Damian

2018-05-01

Oscillons are long-lived, spherically symmetric, attractor scalar field configurations that emerge as certain field configurations evolve in time. It has been known for many years that there is a direct correlation between the initial configuration's shape and the resulting oscillon lifetime: a shape memory. In this paper, we use an information-entropic measure of spatial complexity known as differential configurational entropy (DCE) to obtain estimates of oscillon lifetimes in scalar field theories with symmetric and asymmetric double-well potentials. The time-dependent DCE is built from the Fourier transform of the two-point correlation function of the energy density of the scalar field configuration. We obtain a scaling law correlating oscillon lifetimes and measures obtained from its evolving DCE. For the symmetric double well, for example, we show that we can apply DCE to predict an oscillon's lifetime with an average accuracy of 6% or better. We also show that the DCE acts as a pattern discriminator, able to distinguish initial configurations that evolve into long-lived oscillons from other nonperturbative short-lived fluctuations.

Quantitative risk assessment of durable glass fibers.

PubMed

Fayerweather, William E; Eastes, Walter; Cereghini, Francesco; Hadley, John G

2002-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment for the theoretical lifetime cancer risk from the manufacture and use of relatively durable synthetic glass fibers. More specifically, we estimate levels of exposure to respirable fibers or fiberlike structures of E-glass and C-glass that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, pose a theoretical lifetime cancer risk of not more than 1 per 100,000. For comparability with other risk assessments we define these levels as nonsignificant exposures. Nonsignificant exposure levels are estimated from (a) the Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E-glass microfibers, and (b) the Research Consulting Company (RCC) chronic inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). Best estimates of nonsignificant E-glass exposure exceed 0.05-0.13 fibers (or shards) per cubic centimeter (cm3) when calculated from the multistage nonthreshold model. Best estimates of nonsignificant C-glass exposure exceed 0.27-0.6 fibers/cm3. Estimates of nonsignificant exposure increase markedly for E- and C-glass when non-linear models are applied and rapidly exceed 1 fiber/cm3. Controlling durable fiber exposures to an 8-h time-weighted average of 0.05 fibers/cm3 will assure that the additional theoretical lifetime risk from working lifetime exposures to these durable fibers or shards is kept below the 1 per 100,000 level. Measured airborne exposures to respirable, durable glass fibers (or shards) in glass fiber manufacturing and fabrication operations were compared with the nonsignificant exposure estimates described. Sampling results for B-sized respirable E-glass fibers at facilities that manufacture or fabricate small-diameter continuous-filament products, from those that manufacture respirable E-glass shards from PERG (process to efficiently recycle glass), from milled fiber operations, and from respirable C-glass shards from Flakeglass operations indicate very low median exposures of 0, 0.0002, 0.007, 0.008, and 0.0025 fibers (or shards)/cm3, respectively using the NIOSH 7400 Method ("B" rules). Durable glass fiber exposures for various applications must be well characterized to ensure that they are kept below nonsignificant levels (e.g., 0.05 fibers/cm3) as defined in this risk assessment.

Dose rate prediction methodology for remote handled transuranic waste workers at the waste isolation pilot plant.

PubMed

Hayes, Robert

2002-10-01

An approach is described for estimating future dose rates to Waste Isolation Pilot Plant workers processing remote handled transuranic waste. The waste streams will come from the entire U.S. Department of Energy complex and can take on virtually any form found from the processing sequences for defense-related production, radiochemistry, activation and related work. For this reason, the average waste matrix from all generator sites is used to estimate the average radiation fields over the facility lifetime. Innovative new techniques were applied to estimate expected radiation fields. Non-linear curve fitting techniques were used to predict exposure rate profiles from cylindrical sources using closed form equations for lines and disks. This information becomes the basis for Safety Analysis Report dose rate estimates and for present and future ALARA design reviews when attempts are made to reduce worker doses.

Dynamical lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kankiewicz, Paweł; Włodarczyk, Ireneusz

2017-07-01

The population of known minor bodies in retrograde orbits (I > 90°) that are classified as asteroids is still growing. The aim of our study was to estimate the dynamical lifetimes of these bodies using the latest observational data, including astrometry and physical properties. We selected 25 asteroids with the best-determined orbital elements. We studied their dynamical evolution in the past and future for ±100 Myr (±1 Gyr for three particular cases). We first used orbit determination and cloning to produce swarms of test particles. These swarms were then input into long-term numerical integrations, and the orbital elements were averaged. Next, we collected the available thermal properties of our objects and we used them in an enhanced dynamical model with Yarkovsky forces. We also used a gravitational model for comparison. Finally, we estimated the median lifetimes of 25 asteroids. We found three objects whose retrograde orbits were stable with a dynamical lifetime τ ˜ 10-100 Myr. A large portion of the objects studied displayed smaller values of τ (τ ˜ 1 Myr). In addition, we studied the possible influence of the Yarkovsky effect on our results. We found that the Yarkovsky effect can have a significant influence on the lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits. Because of the presence of this effect, it is possible that the median lifetimes of these objects are extended. Additionally, the changes in orbital elements, caused by Yarkovsky forces, appear to depend on the integration direction. To explain this more precisely, the same model based on new physical parameters, determined from future observations, will be required.

A health economic lifetime treatment pathway model for low back pain in Sweden.

PubMed

Olafsson, Gylfi; Jonsson, Emma; Fritzell, Peter; Hägg, Olle; Borgström, Fredrik

2017-12-01

To develop a health economic model to evaluate the long-term costs and outcomes over the healthcare treatment pathway for patients with low back pain (LBP). A health economic model, consisting of a decision tree structure with a Markov microsimulation model at the end of each branch, was created. Patients were followed from first observed clinical presentation with LBP until the age of 100 years or death. The underlying data to populate the model were based on Swedish national and regional registry data on healthcare resource use and sickness insurance in patients presenting with LBP in the Swedish region Västra Götaland during 2008-2012. Costs (outpatient healthcare visits, inpatient bed days, pharmaceuticals, productivity loss), EUR 2016, and quality-of-life based on EQ-5D data from the registries and published estimates were summarized over the lifetime of the patients with 3% annual discount. A lost quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was valued at €70,000. Mean lifetime total cost was estimated at €47,452/patient, of which indirect costs were 57%. Total lifetime economic burden for all patients coming to clinical presentation in Sweden per year was €8.8bn. The average LBP patient was estimated to face a loss of 2.7 QALYs over their lifetime compared with the general population. For all patients in Sweden coming to clinical presentation in 1 year this gives 505,407 QALYs lost, valued at €35.3bn. Adding the economic burden, the total societal burden amounts to €44.1bn. This pathway model shows that most patients with LBP receive conservative care, and a minority consume high-cost healthcare interventions like surgery. The model could be used to see broad economic effects of different patterns of healthcare provision in sub-groups with LBP and to estimate where it is possible to influence these pathways to increase utility for patients and for society.

The risk of groundling fatalities from unintentional airplane crashes.

PubMed

Thompson, K M; Rabouw, R F; Cooke, R M

2001-12-01

The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people's perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the risk for Americans of being killed on the ground from a crashing airplane for unintentional events, providing average point estimates of 6 in a hundred million for annual risk and 4.2 in a million for lifetime risk. They noted that the lifetime risk result exceeded the commonly used risk management threshold of 1 in a million, and suggested that the risk to "groundlings" could be a useful risk communication tool because (a) it is a man-made risk (b) arising from economic activities (c) from which the victims derive no benefit and (d) exposure to which the victims cannot control. Their results have been used in risk communication. This analysis provides updated estimates of groundling fatality risks from unintentional crashes using more recent data and a geographical information system approach to modeling the population around airports. The results suggest that the average annual risk is now 1.2 in a hundred million and the lifetime risk is now 9 in ten million (below the risk management threshold). Analysis of the variability and uncertainty of this estimate, however, suggests that the exposure to groundling fatality risk varies by about a factor of approximately 100 in the spatial dimension of distance to an airport, with the risk declining rapidly outside the first 2 miles around an airport. We believe that the risk to groundlings from crashing airplanes is more useful in the context of risk communication when information about variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is characterized, but we suspect that recent events will alter its utility in risk communication.

A semi-analytic theory for the motion of a close-earth artificial satellite with drag

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, J. J. F.; Alford, R. L.

1979-01-01

A semi-analytic method is used to estimate the decay history/lifetime and to generate orbital ephemeris for close-earth satellites perturbed by the atmospheric drag and earth oblateness due to the spherical harmonics J2, J3, and J4. The theory maintains efficiency through the application of the theory of a method of averaging and employs sufficient numerical emphasis to include a rather sophisticated atmospheric density model. The averaged drag effects with respect to mean anomaly are evaluated by a Gauss-Legendre quadrature while the averaged variational equations of motion are integrated numerically with automatic step size and error control.

Changes over time in audiometric thresholds in a group of automobile stamping and assembly workers with a hearing conservation program.

PubMed

Brink, LuAnn L; Talbott, Evelyn O; Burks, J Alton; Palmer, Catherine V

2002-01-01

Noise induced hearing loss (NIHL) is among the 10 leading occupational diseases, afflicting between 7.4 and 10.2 million people who work in noise above 85 dBA. Although mandatory hearing conservation programs (HCPs) have been in effect since 1972, this problem persists, as hearing protectors are not consistently used by workers, or may not attenuate to manufacturer's estimates in real world conditions. In this study, information from noise and hearing protection use measurements taken at an automobile assembly plant were used to construct average lifetime noise exposure and hearing protection compliance estimates for use in modeling to predict both total hearing loss and onset of two accepted definitions of hearing loss. There were 301 males and females in this cohort; their mean age was 42.6 (7.2) years, and mean tenure was 14.3 (3.5) years. Average length of follow-up was 14.0 years. There were 16 members of this cohort who had hearing loss at the speech frequencies (defined as an average hearing level > or = 25 dB at 500, 1000, and 2000 Hz). In cross-sectional multivariate analyses, years of employment, male gender, and proportion of time wearing hearing protection were the factors most associated with hearing loss at the average of 2000, 3000, and 4000 Hz (p < 0.0001) controlling for age, transfer status (as a surrogate for previous noise exposure), race, and lifetime average noise exposure. The most consistent predictor of hearing loss in both univariate and multivariate analyses was percentage of time having used hearing protection during the workers' tenure.

A new approach to Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portmann, R. W.; Daniel, J. S.; Yu, P.

2017-12-01

The Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) is given by the time integrated global ozone loss of an ozone depleting substance (ODS) relative to a reference ODS (usually CFC-11). The ODP is used by the Montreal Protocol (and subsequent amendments) to inform policy decisions on the production of ODSs. Since the early 1990s, ODPs have usually been estimated using an approximate formulism that utilizes the lifetime and the fractional release factor of the ODS. This has the advantage that it can utilize measured concentrations of the ODSs to estimate their fractional release factors. However, there is a strong correlation between stratospheric lifetimes and fractional release factors of ODSs and that this can introduce uncertainties into ODP calculations when the terms are estimated independently. Instead, we show that the ODP is proportional to the average global ozone loss per equivalent chlorine molecule released in the stratosphere by the ODS loss process (which we call the Γ factor) and, importantly, this ratio varies only over a relatively small range ( 0.3-1.5) for ODPs with stratospheric lifetimes of 20 to more than 1,000 years. The Γ factor varies smoothly with stratospheric lifetime for ODSs with loss processes dominated by photolysis and is larger for long-lived species, while stratospheric OH loss processes produce relatively small Γs that are nearly independent of stratospheric lifetime. The fractional release approach does not accurately capture these relationships. We propose a new formulation that takes advantage of this smooth variation by parameterizing the Γ factor using ozone changes computed using the chemical climate model CESM-WACCM and the NOCAR two-dimensional model. We show that while the absolute Γ's vary between WACCM and NOCAR models, much of the difference is removed for the Γ/ΓCFC-11 ratio that is used in the ODP formula. This parameterized method simplifies the computation of ODPs while providing enhanced accuracy compared to the fractional release method and it can be used to estimate many ODPs given information on chemical reaction rates and photolysis processes.

Risks of secondary malignancies with heterotopic bone radiation therapy for patients younger than 40 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cadieux, Catherine L., E-mail: ccadieux@umail.iu.edu; DesRosiers, Colleen; McMullen, Kevin

Heterotopic ossification (HO) of the bone is defined as a benign condition in which abnormal bone formation occurs in soft tissue. One of the most common prophylactic treatments for HO is radiation therapy (RT). This study retrospectively reviewed 20 patients younger than the age of 40 who received radiation to prevent HO in a single fraction of 7 Gray. The purpose of this study is to assess the risk of a second malignancy in these patients by recreating their treatment fields and contouring organs at risk to estimate the radiation dose absorbed by normal tissues outside the radiation treatment field.more » Diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans for each patient were used to recreate treatment fields and to calculate dose to structures of interest. The distance from the field edge to each structure and its depth was recorded. Dose measurements in a water phantom were performed for the range of depths, distances, and field sizes used in the actual treatment plans. Computer-generated doses were compared to estimates based on measurement. The structure dose recorded was the higher dose generated between the 2 methods. Scatter dose was recorded to the rectum, bladder, sigmoid colon, small bowel, ovaries and utero-cervix in female patients, and prostate and gonads in male patients. In some patients, there is considerable dose received by certain organs from scatter because of their proximity to the radiation field. The average dose to the ovarian region was 4.125 Gy with a range of 1.085 to 6.228 Gy. The risk estimate for these patients ranged from 0.16% to 0.93%. The average total lifetime risk estimate for the bladder in all patients is 0.22% and the average total lifetime risk estimate for the remainder organs in all patients is 1.25%. In conclusions, proper shielding created from multileaf collimators (MLCs), blocks, and shields should always be used when possible.« less

Cost-effectiveness of one-time genetic testing to minimize lifetime adverse drug reactions.

PubMed

Alagoz, O; Durham, D; Kasirajan, K

2016-04-01

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of one-time pharmacogenomic testing for preventing adverse drug reactions (ADRs) over a patient's lifetime. We developed a Markov-based Monte Carlo microsimulation model to represent the ADR events in the lifetime of each patient. The base-case considered a 40-year-old patient. We measured health outcomes in life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs) and estimated costs using 2013 US$. In the base-case, one-time genetic testing had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $43,165 (95% confidence interval (CI) is ($42,769,$43,561)) per additional LY and $53,680 per additional QALY (95% CI is ($53,182,$54,179)), hence under the base-case one-time genetic testing is cost-effective. The ICER values were most sensitive to the average probability of death due to ADR, reduction in ADR rate due to genetic testing, mean ADR rate and cost of genetic testing.

A Competing Risks Survival Analysis of High School Dropout and Graduation: A Two-Stage Model Specification Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Fan

2017-01-01

There has been a wealth of research conducted on the high school dropouts spanning several decades. It is estimated that compared with those who complete high school, the average high school dropout costs the economy approximately $250,000 more over his or her lifetime in terms of lower tax contributions, higher reliance on Medicaid and Medicare,…

The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study.

PubMed

Veerman, J Lennert; Sacks, Gary; Antonopoulos, Nicole; Martin, Jane

2016-01-01

This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000-155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000-76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million- 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.

The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Veerman, J. Lennert; Sacks, Gary; Antonopoulos, Nicole; Martin, Jane

2016-01-01

This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000–155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000–76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million– 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue. PMID:27073855

Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, R.; Cunnold, D.; Simmonds, P.; Alyea, F.; Boldi, R.; Crawford, A.; Fraser, P.; Gutzler, D.; Hartley, D.; Rosen, R.

1992-01-01

An optimal estimation inversion scheme is utilized with atmospheric data and emission estimates to determined the globally averaged CH3CCl3 tropospheric lifetime and OH concentration. The data are taken from atmospheric measurements from surface stations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane and show an annual increase of 4.4 +/- 0.2 percent. Industrial emission estimates and a small oceanic loss rate are included, and the OH concentration for the same period (1978-1990) are incorporated at 1.0 +/- 0.8 percent/yr. The positive OH trend is consistent with theories regarding OH and ozone trends with respect to land use and global warming. Attention is given to the effects of the ENSO on the CH3CCl3 data and the assumption of continuing current industrial anthropogenic emissions. A novel tropical atmospheric tracer-transport mechanism is noted with respect to the CH3CCl3 data.

A minimum distance estimation approach to the two-sample location-scale problem.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyi; Yu, Qiqing

2002-09-01

As reported by Kalbfleisch and Prentice (1980), the generalized Wilcoxon test fails to detect a difference between the lifetime distributions of the male and female mice died from Thymic Leukemia. This failure is a result of the test's inability to detect a distributional difference when a location shift and a scale change exist simultaneously. In this article, we propose an estimator based on the minimization of an average distance between two independent quantile processes under a location-scale model. Large sample inference on the proposed estimator, with possible right-censorship, is discussed. The mouse leukemia data are used as an example for illustration purpose.

Development and Demonstration of a Multiplexed Magnetic Tweezers Assay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Keith Charles

This dissertation is concerned with the methods and applications of single molecule force spectroscopy. In the introduction, the traditional single molecule force spectroscopy instruments are introduced and the advantages and drawbacks of each are discussed. The first chapter is a review of methods to ensure that biomolecular bond lifetime parameter estimations are not contaminated by multiple bond data. This review culminates in an examination of the literature on the strength of the bond between biotin and streptavidin and finds that by filtering the numerous publications for those that clearly demonstrate specific single bond behavior, there is a consensus of the bond strength and kinetic parameters. The second chapter of the dissertation discusses the capabilities of a magnetic tweezer assay, which combines massive multiplexing, precision bead tracking, and bi-directional force control into a flexible and stabile platform for examining single molecule behavior. Using a novel method for increasing the precision of force estimations on heterogeneous paramagnetic beads, I demonstrate the instrument by examining the force dependence of uncoiling and recoiling velocity of type 1 fimbriae from Eschericia coli (E. coli) bacteria, and see similar results to previous studies. Chapter 3 is a study of the lifetime of the activated FimH-mannose bond under various force conditions using the previously described magnetic tweezer. The bond is found to be extremely long-lived at forces less than 30 pN, with an average lifetime > 1000 times longer than the biotin-streptavidin bond, making it one of the strongest non-covalent interactions known in nature. Furthermore, the average lifetime of the bond is similar between 9 and 30 pN of force, suggesting a force range at which the lifetime is force-independent, demonstrating ideal bond behavior for the first time in a natural system. It is hypothesized that the long lifetime and ideal behavior is due to a gateway that locks mannose into the binding pocket and opens at a rate independent of force. This study elucidates a mechanism for very strong biological binding, and provides insight into approaches for developing novel antiadhesive therapies. This dissertation is concluded with a review of the body of work in chapters 1-3 and a discussion of the future directions for this research.

Epidemiology of major depression in four cities in Mexico.

PubMed

Slone, Laurie B; Norris, Fran H; Murphy, Arthur D; Baker, Charlene K; Perilla, Julia L; Diaz, Dayna; Rodriguez, Francisco Gutiérrez; Gutiérrez Rodriguez, José de Jesús

2006-01-01

Analyses were conducted to estimate lifetime and current prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) for four representative cities of Mexico, to identify variables that influence the probability of MDD, and to further describe depression in Mexican culture. A multistage probability sampling design was used to draw a sample of 2,509 adults in four different regions of Mexico. MDD was assessed according to DSM-IV criteria by using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview collected by trained lay interviewers. The prevalence of MDD in these four cities averaged 12.8% for lifetime and 6.1% for the previous 12 months. MDD was highly comorbid with other mental disorders. Women were more likely to have lifetime MDD than were men. Being divorced, separated, or widowed (compared to married or never married) and having experienced childhood trauma were related to higher lifetime prevalence but not to current prevalence. In addition, age and education level were related to current 12-month MDD. Data on the profile of MDD in urban Mexico are provided. This research expands our understanding of MDD across cultures.

Influence of CdTe Deposition Temperature and Window Thickness on CdTe Grain Size and Lifetime After CdCl 2 Recrystallization

DOE PAGES

Amarasinghe, Mahisha; Colegrove, Eric; Moutinho, Helio; ...

2018-01-23

Grain structure influences both transport and recombination in CdTe solar cells. Larger grains generally are obtained with higher deposition temperatures, but commercially it is important to avoid softening soda-lime glass. Furthermore, depositing at lower temperatures can enable different substrates and reduced cost in the future. We examine how initial deposition temperatures and morphology influence grain size and lifetime after CdCl 2 recrystallization. Techniques are developed to estimate grain distribution quickly with low-cost optical microscopy, which compares well with electron backscatter diffraction data providing corroborative assessments of exposed CdTe grain structures. Average grain size increases as a function of CdCl 2more » temperature. For lower temperature close-spaced sublimation CdTe depositions, there can be more stress and grain segregation during recrystallization. However, the resulting lifetimes and grain sizes are similar to high-temperature CdTe depositions. The grain structures and lifetimes are largely independent of the presence and/or interdiffusion of Se at the interface, before and after the CdCl 2 treatment.« less

Influence of CdTe Deposition Temperature and Window Thickness on CdTe Grain Size and Lifetime After CdCl 2 Recrystallization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amarasinghe, Mahisha; Colegrove, Eric; Moutinho, Helio

Grain structure influences both transport and recombination in CdTe solar cells. Larger grains generally are obtained with higher deposition temperatures, but commercially it is important to avoid softening soda-lime glass. Furthermore, depositing at lower temperatures can enable different substrates and reduced cost in the future. We examine how initial deposition temperatures and morphology influence grain size and lifetime after CdCl 2 recrystallization. Techniques are developed to estimate grain distribution quickly with low-cost optical microscopy, which compares well with electron backscatter diffraction data providing corroborative assessments of exposed CdTe grain structures. Average grain size increases as a function of CdCl 2more » temperature. For lower temperature close-spaced sublimation CdTe depositions, there can be more stress and grain segregation during recrystallization. However, the resulting lifetimes and grain sizes are similar to high-temperature CdTe depositions. The grain structures and lifetimes are largely independent of the presence and/or interdiffusion of Se at the interface, before and after the CdCl 2 treatment.« less

Genetic, environmental and interaction effects on lifetime production efficiency of crossbred ewes.

PubMed

Saoud, N B; Hohenboken, W D

1984-09-01

A total of 399 crossbred ewes born in 2 yr were maintained either on irrigated or dryland hill pastures. The ewes were sired by North Country Cheviot, Dorset, Finnsheep or Romney rams mated to Suffolk or Columbia-type ewes. The crossbred ewes were mated to Hampshire rams throughout the study and had the opportunity for either 4 or 5 yr of production. Annual feed cost was calculated based upon estimated annual metabolizable energy (ME) requirements for maintenance, ewe growth, pregnancy and lactation. Income from weaned feeder lambs and from orphan lambs sold shortly after birth, feed cost and net revenue were analyzed during each ewe's first production year, as well as for the entire period of the experiment. Crossbred group significantly affected income from lambs produced, feed cost and net revenue for the ewes' first production year. Crossbred group and crossbred group X management system interactions generally influenced lifetime income from lambs produced and from orphans sold, gross income, total cost and net revenue per ewe. Finnsheep X Suffolk ewes performed best on irrigated pastures but were below average for lifetime net revenue on hill pastures. Finnsheep X Columbia ewes performed best on hill pastures and, with Dorset X Suffolk and Dorset X Columbia ewes, were well above average for lifetime net revenue on irrigated pastures as well. Suffolk crossbreds consistently performed better on irrigated than on hill pastures. While most ewes with Columbia-type inheritance were more efficient on hill than on irrigated pastures, this result was not always consistent.

Organochlorines in urban soils from Central India: probabilistic health hazard and risk implications to human population.

PubMed

Kumar, Bhupander; Mishra, Meenu; Verma, V K; Rai, Premanjali; Kumar, Sanjay

2018-04-21

This study presents distribution of organochlorines (OCs) including HCH, DDT and PCBs in urban soils, and their environmental and human health risk. Forty-eight soil samples were extracted using ultrasonication, cleaned with modified silica gel chromatography and analyzed by GC-ECD. The observed concentrations of ∑HCH, ∑DDT and ∑PCBs in soils ranged between < 0.01-2.54, 1.30-27.41 and < 0.01-62.8 µg kg -1 , respectively, which were lower than the recommended soil quality guidelines. Human health risk was estimated following recommended guidelines. Lifetime average daily dose (LADD), non-cancer risk or hazard quotient (HQ) and incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) for humans due to individual and total OCs were estimated and presented. Estimated LADD were lower than acceptable daily intake and reference dose. Human health risk estimates were lower than safe limit of non-cancer risk (HQ < 1.0) and the acceptable distribution range of ILCR (10 -6 -10 -4 ). Therefore, this study concluded that present levels of OCs (HCH, DDT and PCBs) in studied soils were low, and subsequently posed low health risk to human population in the study area.

Financial impact of adopting implantable loop recorder diagnostic for unexplained syncope compared with conventional diagnostic pathway in Portugal.

PubMed

Providência, Rui; Candeias, Rui; Morais, Carlos; Reis, Hipólito; Elvas, Luís; Sanfins, Vitor; Farinha, Sara; Eggington, Simon; Tsintzos, Stelios

2014-05-06

To estimate the short- and long-term financial impact of early referral for implantable loop recorder diagnostic (ILR) versus conventional diagnostic pathway (CDP) in the management of unexplained syncope (US) in the Portuguese National Health Service (PNHS). A Markov model was developed to estimate the expected number of hospital admissions due to US and its respective financial impact in patients implanted with ILR versus CDP. The average cost of a syncope episode admission was estimated based on Portuguese cost data and landmark papers. The financial impact of ILR adoption was estimated for a total of 197 patients with US, based on the number of syncope admissions per year in the PNHS. Sensitivity analysis was performed to take into account the effect of uncertainty in the input parameters (hazard ratio of death; number of syncope events per year; probabilities and unit costs of each diagnostic test; probability of trauma and yield of diagnosis) over three-year and lifetime horizons. The average cost of a syncope event was estimated to be between 1,760€ and 2,800€. Over a lifetime horizon, the total discounted costs of hospital admissions and syncope diagnosis for the entire cohort were 23% lower amongst patients in the ILR group compared with the CDP group (1,204,621€ for ILR, versus 1,571,332€ for CDP). The utilization of ILR leads to an earlier diagnosis and lower number of syncope hospital admissions and investigations, thus allowing significant cost offsets in the Portuguese setting. The result is robust to changes in the input parameter values, and cost savings become more pronounced over time.

Getting the measure of extinction.

PubMed

Mace, G

1998-01-01

Like all species, plants, mammals, and birds have been subject to extinction as a fundamental part of evolution. Indeed, only about 2-4% of all the species that have ever lived during the 600 million years of the fossil record still survive today. Looking at the fossil record, it can be said that invertebrate species and mammals have had an average life span of 5-10 and 1-2 million years, respectively. More recent extinction records for birds and mammals lost over the last half of the century indicate that 1 out of 14,000 species becomes extinct each year, giving each species an average life span of 10,000 years--100 to 1000 times shorter than the lifetime of species in the fossil record. Drawing on the World's Conservation Union Red List of threatened animals (1996), species lifetimes of birds, mammals and reptiles are estimated at 300-500 years and 100-1000 years across broader groups. In general, these estimates show that extinction rates today are 1000 to 10,000 times higher than in the past, making current rates of species loss at least equivalent to the mass extinctions in the past. A major difference, however, is the fact that almost all extinctions that have transpired today are due to the impact of human activities.

Variation in Adenoma Detection Rate and the Lifetime Benefits and Cost of Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Microsimulation Model

PubMed Central

Meester, Reinier G.S.; Doubeni, Chyke A.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Jensen, Christopher D.; van der Meulen, Miriam P.; Levin, Theodore R.; Quinn, Virginia P.; Schottinger, Joanne E.; Zauber, Ann G.; Corley, Douglas A.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Colonoscopy is the most commonly used colorectal cancer screening test in the United States. Its quality, as measured by adenoma detection rates, varies widely between physicians with unknown consequences for the cost and benefits of screening programs. OBJECTIVE To estimate the lifetime benefits, complications and costs of a colonoscopy screening program at different levels of adenoma detection. DESIGN, SETTING and PARTICIPANTS This study used microsimulation modeling with data from a community-based healthcare system on adenoma detection rate variation and cancer risk among 136 physicians and 57,588 patients for 1998–2010. EXPOSURE Using modeling, no screening was compared to screening initiation with colonoscopy according to adenoma detection rate quintiles (averages 15.3, 21.3, 25.6, 30.9, and 38.7%) at ages 50, 60 and 70 with appropriate surveillance of adenoma patients. MAIN OUTCOMES Estimated lifetime colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, number of colonoscopies, complications and costs per 1,000 patients, all discounted at 3% per year and including 95% confidence intervals from multiway probabilistic sensitivity analysis (95%CI). RESULTS In simulation modeling, among unscreened patients, the lifetime risks of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality were 34.2 (95%CI:25.9–43.6) and 13.4 (95%CI:10.0–17.6) per 1,000, respectively. Among screened patients, simulated lifetime incidence decreased with lower to higher adenoma detection rates (quintile 1 versus 5: 26.6, 95%CI:20.0–34.3 versus 12.5, 95%CI:9.3–16.5) as did mortality (5.7, 95%CI:4.2–7.7 versus 2.3, 95%CI:1.7–3.1). Compared to quintile 1, simulated lifetime incidence and mortality were on average 11.4% (95%CI:10.3–11.9) and 12.8% (95%CI:11.1–13.7) lower, respectively, for every 5 percentage-point higher adenoma detection rate. Total colonoscopies and associated complications were higher from quintile 1 (2,777, 95%CI:2,626–2,943 and 6.0, 95%CI:4.0–8.5) to subsequent quintiles (quintile 5: 3,376, 95%CI:3,081–3,681 and 8.9, 95%CI:6.1–12.0). Estimated net screening costs were, however, lower from quintile 1 (US $2.1 million, 95%CI:1.8–2.4) to quintile 5 (US$1.8 million, 95%CI:1.3–2.3) due to averted cancer treatment costs. Results were stable across sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS-RELEVANCE Using microsimulation modeling, we found that higher adenoma detection was associated with lower lifetime colorectal cancer incidence and mortality without higher overall costs. Future research is needed to assess if increasing adenoma detection would be associated with improved patient outcomes. PMID:26080339

Estimating the public economic consequences of introducing varenicline smoking cessation therapy in South Korea using a fiscal analytic framework.

PubMed

Connolly, Mark P; Baker, Christine L; Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos

2018-06-01

Smoking gives rise to many cross-sectorial public costs and benefits for government. Costs arise from increased healthcare spending and work-related social benefits, while smoking itself provides significant revenue for government from tobacco taxes. To better understand the public economic impact of smoking and smoking cessation therapies, this study developed a government perspective framework for assessing smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality and associated public costs. This framework includes changes in lifetime tax revenue and health costs, as well as changes in tobacco tax revenue, from fewer smokers. A modified generational accounting framework was developed to assess relationships between smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality and public economic consequences of smoking, including lifetime tax revenue gains/losses, government social transfers, and health spending. Based on the current prevalence of smoking in South Korean males, a cohort model was developed for smokers, former-smokers, and never-smokers. The model simulated the lifetime discounted fiscal transfers for different age cohorts in 5 year age bands, and the return on investment (ROI) from smoking cessation therapy. Former smokers are estimated to generate higher lifetime earnings and direct tax revenues and lower lifetime healthcare costs due to the reduction of smoking-attributable mortality and morbidity compared to smokers, even after accounting for reduced tobacco taxes paid. Based on the costs of public investments in varenicline, this study estimated a ROI from 1.4-1.7, depending on treatment age, with higher ROI in younger cohorts, with an average ROI of 1.6 for those aged less than 65. This analysis suggests that reductions in smoking can generate positive public economic benefits for government, even after accounting for lost tobacco tax revenues. The results described here are likely applicable to countries having similar underlying smoking prevalence, comparable taxation rates, and social benefit protection provided to individuals with smoking-related conditions.

Lung cancer risk by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a Mediterranean industrialized area.

PubMed

Cuadras, Anna; Rovira, Enric; Marcé, Rosa Maria; Borrull, Francesc

2016-11-01

This study focuses on characterizing the chronic risk assessment from inhalation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for people living near the largest chemical complex in the Mediterranean area. Eighteen PAHs were determined in the atmospheric gas and particle phases, counting PM 10 and total suspended particles. The lifetime lung cancer risk from PAH exposure was estimated, and the contribution was assessed by phases. The results obtained with the continuous lifetime scenario were compared with those obtained with different chronic scenarios. The estimated chronic risk was also compared with those reported in previous studies. PAHs were present at higher concentration in the gas phase (>84 %) with a major contribution of the most volatile PAHs, and an equitable distribution of heavy PAHs between gas and particle phases was observed. Petroleum combustion and traffic emissions were suggested as the main sources, but the influence of petrogenic sources cannot be ruled out. The estimated average lifetime lung cancer risk in this study ranged between 3.2 × 10 -5 and 4.3 × 10 -5 . The gas phase accounted for the most significant contribution to the total risk (>60 %). Fluoranthene (FluT), dibenzo(a,h)anthracene (DahA) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), as a whole, made the greatest contribution to the total risk (>80 %). BaP-bound PM 10 accounted for a small contribution of the total risk (10 %). Chronic exposures lower than total lifetime hours could even pose a risk >10 -5 . The results also showed that BaP-bound PM 10 , according to current legislation, may not be a good indicator of the real risk by PAH exposure. Concerning previous studies, the economic situation may have an impact on reducing the cancer risk by PAH inhalation.

Risks of a lifetime in construction. Part II: Chronic occupational diseases.

PubMed

Ringen, Knut; Dement, John; Welch, Laura; Dong, Xiuwen Sue; Bingham, Eula; Quinn, Patricia S

2014-11-01

We developed working-life estimates of risk for dust-related occupational lung disease, COPD, and hearing loss based on the experience of the Building Trades National Medical Screening Program in order to (1) demonstrate the value of estimates of lifetime risk, and (2) make lifetime risk estimates for common conditions among construction workers. Estimates of lifetime risk were performed based on 12,742 radiographic evaluations, 12,679 spirometry tests, and 11,793 audiograms. Over a 45-year working life, 16% of construction workers developed COPD, 11% developed parenchymal radiological abnormality, and 73.8% developed hearing loss. The risk for occupationally related disease over a lifetime in a construction trade was 2-6 times greater than the risk in non-construction workers. When compared with estimates from annualized cross-sectional data, lifetime risk estimates are highly useful for risk expression, and should help to inform stakeholders in the construction industry as well as policy-makers about magnitudes of risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development and validation of a Markov microsimulation model for the economic evaluation of treatments in osteoporosis.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Ethgen, Olivier; Bruyère, Olivier; Richy, Florent; Gathon, Henry-Jean; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2009-01-01

Markov models are increasingly used in economic evaluations of treatments for osteoporosis. Most of the existing evaluations are cohort-based Markov models missing comprehensive memory management and versatility. In this article, we describe and validate an original Markov microsimulation model to accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. We developed a Markov microsimulation model with a lifetime horizon and a direct health-care cost perspective. The patient history was recorded and was used in calculations of transition probabilities, utilities, and costs. To test the internal consistency of the model, we carried out an example calculation for alendronate therapy. Then, external consistency was investigated by comparing absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates with epidemiologic data. For women at age 70 years, with a twofold increase in the fracture risk of the average population, the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained for alendronate therapy versus no treatment were estimated at €9105 and €15,325, respectively, under full and realistic adherence assumptions. All the sensitivity analyses in terms of model parameters and modeling assumptions were coherent with expected conclusions and absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates were within the range of previous estimates, which confirmed both internal and external consistency of the model. Microsimulation models present some major advantages over cohort-based models, increasing the reliability of the results and being largely compatible with the existing state of the art, evidence-based literature. The developed model appears to be a valid model for use in economic evaluations in osteoporosis.

Deriving Lifetime Maps in the Time/Frequency Domain of Coherent Structures in the Turbulent Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Dan

2008-01-01

The lifetimes of coherent structures are derived from data correlated over a 3 sensor array sampling streamwise sidewall pressure at high Reynolds number (> 10(exp 8)). The data were acquired at subsonic, transonic and supersonic speeds aboard a Tupolev Tu-144. The lifetimes are computed from a variant of the correlation length termed the lifelength. Characteristic lifelengths are estimated by fitting a Gaussian distribution to the sensors cross spectra and are shown to compare favorably with Efimtsov s prediction of correlation space scales. Lifelength distributions are computed in the time/frequency domain using an interval correlation technique on the continuous wavelet transform of the original time data. The median values of the lifelength distributions are found to be very close to the frequency averaged result. The interval correlation technique is shown to allow the retrieval and inspection of the original time data of each event in the lifelength distributions, thus providing a means to locate and study the nature of the coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer. The lifelength data are converted to lifetimes using the convection velocity. The lifetime of events in the time/frequency domain are displayed in Lifetime Maps. The primary purpose of the paper is to validate these new analysis techniques so that they can be used with confidence to further characterize the behavior of coherent structures in the turbulent boundary layer.

The Societal and Economic Value of Rotator Cuff Repair

PubMed Central

Mather, Richard C.; Koenig, Lane; Acevedo, Daniel; Dall, Timothy M.; Gallo, Paul; Romeo, Anthony; Tongue, John; Williams, Gerald

2013-01-01

Background: Although rotator cuff disease is a common musculoskeletal problem in the United States, the impact of this condition on earnings, missed workdays, and disability payments is largely unknown. This study examines the value of surgical treatment for full-thickness rotator cuff tears from a societal perspective. Methods: A Markov decision model was constructed to estimate lifetime direct and indirect costs associated with surgical and continued nonoperative treatment for symptomatic full-thickness rotator cuff tears. All patients were assumed to have been unresponsive to one six-week trial of nonoperative treatment prior to entering the model. Model assumptions were obtained from the literature and data analysis. We obtained estimates of indirect costs using national survey data and patient-reported outcomes. Four indirect costs were modeled: probability of employment, household income, missed workdays, and disability payments. Direct cost estimates were based on average Medicare reimbursements with adjustments to an all-payer population. Effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results: The age-weighted mean total societal savings from rotator cuff repair compared with nonoperative treatment was $13,771 over a patient’s lifetime. Savings ranged from $77,662 for patients who are thirty to thirty-nine years old to a net cost to society of $11,997 for those who are seventy to seventy-nine years old. In addition, surgical treatment results in an average improvement of 0.62 QALY. Societal savings were highly sensitive to age, with savings being positive at the age of sixty-one years and younger. The estimated lifetime societal savings of the approximately 250,000 rotator cuff repairs performed in the U.S. each year was $3.44 billion. Conclusions: Rotator cuff repair for full-thickness tears produces net societal cost savings for patients under the age of sixty-one years and greater QALYs for all patients. Rotator cuff repair is cost-effective for all populations. The results of this study should not be interpreted as suggesting that all rotator cuff tears require surgery. Rather, the results show that rotator cuff repair has an important role in minimizing the societal burden of rotator cuff disease. PMID:24257656

Lifetime prevalence of non-suicidal self-injury in patients with eating disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cucchi, A; Ryan, D; Konstantakopoulos, G; Stroumpa, S; Kaçar, A Ş; Renshaw, S; Landau, S; Kravariti, E

2016-05-01

Against a backdrop of increasing research, clinical and taxonomic attention in non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI), evidence suggests a link between NSSI and eating disorders (ED). The frequency estimates of NSSI in ED vary widely. Little is known about the sources of this variation, and no meta-analysis has quantified the association between ED and NSSI. Using random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regression analyses, and 1816-6466 unique participants with various ED, we estimated the weighted average percentage of individuals with ED, those with anorexia nervosa (AN) and those with bulimia nervosa (BN) who are reported to have a lifetime history of NSSI across studies. We further examined predictors of NSSI in ED. The weighted average percentage of patients with a lifetime history of NSSI was 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 23.8-31.0%] for ED, 21.8% (95% CI 18.5-25.6%) for AN, and 32.7% (95% CI 26.9-39.1%) for BN. The difference between BN and AN was statistically significant [odds ratio (OR) 1.77, 95% CI 1.14-2.77, p = 0.013]. The odds of NSSI increased by 24% for every 10% increase in the percentage of participants with histories of suicide attempts (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.48, p = 0.020) and decreased by 26% for every 10% increase in the percentage of participants with histories of substance abuse (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.95, p = 0.023). In the specific context of ED, NSSI is highly prevalent and correlates positively with attempted suicide, urging for NSSI-focused treatments. A novel finding is that NSSI is potentially antagonized by substance abuse.

Inorganic Arsenic and Basal Cell Carcinoma in Areas of Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia: A Case–Control Study

PubMed Central

Leonardi, Giovanni; Vahter, Marie; Clemens, Felicity; Goessler, Walter; Gurzau, Eugen; Hemminki, Kari; Hough, Rupert; Koppova, Kvetoslava; Kumar, Rajiv; Rudnai, Peter; Surdu, Simona

2012-01-01

Background: Inorganic arsenic (iAs) is a potent carcinogen, but there is a lack of information about cancer risk for concentrations < 100 μg/L in drinking water. Objectives: We aimed to quantify skin cancer relative risks in relation to iAs exposure < 100 μg/L and the modifying effects of iAs metabolism. Methods: The Arsenic Health Risk Assessment and Molecular Epidemiology (ASHRAM) study, a case–control study, was conducted in areas of Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia with reported presence of iAs in groundwater. Consecutively diagnosed cases of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin were histologically confirmed; controls were general surgery, orthopedic, and trauma patients who were frequency matched to cases by age, sex, and area of residence. Exposure indices were constructed based on information on iAs intake over the lifetime of participants. iAs metabolism status was classified based on urinary concentrations of methylarsonic acid (MA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA). Associations were estimated by multivariable logistic regression. Results: A total of 529 cases with BCC and 540 controls were recruited for the study. BCC was positively associated with three indices of iAs exposure: peak daily iAs dose rate, cumulative iAs dose, and lifetime average water iAs concentration. The adjusted odds ratio per 10-μg/L increase in average lifetime water iAs concentration was 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 1.08, 1.28). The estimated effect of iAs on cancer was stronger in participants with urinary markers indicating incomplete metabolism of iAs: higher percentage of MA in urine or a lower percentage of DMA. Conclusion: We found a positive association between BCC and exposure to iAs through drinking water with concentrations < 100 μg/L. PMID:22436128

Development of the Galaxy Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Model Using Data from ECLIPSE: Internal Validation of a Linked-Equations Cohort Model.

PubMed

Briggs, Andrew H; Baker, Timothy; Risebrough, Nancy A; Chambers, Mike; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Ismaila, Afisi S; Exuzides, Alex; Colby, Chris; Tabberer, Maggie; Muellerova, Hana; Locantore, Nicholas; Rutten van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Lomas, David A

2017-05-01

The recent joint International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research / Society for Medical Decision Making Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force emphasized the importance of conceptualizing and validating models. We report a new model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (part of the Galaxy project) founded on a conceptual model, implemented using a novel linked-equation approach, and internally validated. An expert panel developed a conceptual model including causal relationships between disease attributes, progression, and final outcomes. Risk equations describing these relationships were estimated using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study, with costs estimated from the TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) study. Implementation as a linked-equation model enabled direct estimation of health service costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for COPD patients over their lifetimes. Internal validation compared 3 years of predicted cohort experience with ECLIPSE results. At 3 years, the Galaxy COPD model predictions of annual exacerbation rate and annual decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second fell within the ECLIPSE data confidence limits, although 3-year overall survival was outside the observed confidence limits. Projections of the risk equations over time permitted extrapolation to patient lifetimes. Averaging the predicted cost/QALY outcomes for the different patients within the ECLIPSE cohort gives an estimated lifetime cost of £25,214 (undiscounted)/£20,318 (discounted) and lifetime QALYs of 6.45 (undiscounted/5.24 [discounted]) per ECLIPSE patient. A new form of model for COPD was conceptualized, implemented, and internally validated, based on a series of linked equations using epidemiological data (ECLIPSE) and cost data (TORCH). This Galaxy model predicts COPD outcomes from treatment effects on disease attributes such as lung function, exacerbations, symptoms, or exercise capacity; further external validation is required.

Life Expectancy and Lifetime Health Care Expenditures for Type 1 Diabetes: A Nationwide Longitudinal Cohort of Incident Cases Followed for 14 Years.

PubMed

Ou, Huang-Tz; Yang, Chen-Yi; Wang, Jung-Der; Hwang, Jing-Shiang; Wu, Jin-Shang

2016-12-01

To assess additional life expectancy (LE), expected years of life lost , and lifetime health care expenditures after type 1 diabetes diagnosis, stratified by sex and age of first diagnosis (early: 0-12 years; late: 13-40 years). A longitudinal cohort of patients with diabetes was constructed from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database of 1999 to 2012. The survival functions for diabetic patients and age- and sex-matched general population were estimated by using a semiparametric extrapolation method with annual life tables. The average monthly health care expenditures were multiplied by the corresponding monthly survival rates and summed to calculate the lifetime health care expenditures. Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to corroborate the effects of sex and age, after being adjusted for comorbidities, complications, and calendar years. A total of 2386 cases (45% early diagnosis, 49% males) were identified. An additional LE after diabetes diagnosis was 45.12 years, with an estimated 17.63 years of life lost. The predicted total and diabetes-related lifetime costs were $56,939 and $102,140, respectively. Early diagnosed patients had a longer LE and lower health care spending compared with those of late-diagnosed patients. Male patients had a shorter LE and a higher expected years of life lost than the female patients, which corresponded to lower lifetime costs for the former. The Cox model results for overall mortality corroborated these trends. Early detection of type 1 diabetes and sex-specific strategies would probably improve long-term health outcomes and save on the cost of diabetes care. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of radionuclides in the soil of residential areas of the Chittagong metropolitan city, Bangladesh and evaluation of associated radiological risk

PubMed Central

Rashed-Nizam, Quazi Muhammad; Rahman, Md. Mashiur; Kamal, Masud; Chowdhury, Mantazul Islam

2015-01-01

Soil samples from the three residential hubs of Chittagong city, Bangladesh were analyzed using gamma spectrometry to estimate radiation hazard due to natural radioactive sources and anthropogenic nuclide 137Cs. The activity concentration of 226Ra was found to be in the range 11–25 Bq.kg−1, 232Th in the range 38–59 Bq.kg−1 and 40K in the range 246–414 Bq.kg−1. These results were used to calculate the radiological hazard parameters including Excess of Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR). The estimated outdoor gamma exposure rates were 40.6–63.8 nGy.h−1. The radiation hazard index (radium equivalent activity) ranged from 90–140 Bq.kg−1. The average value of the ELCR was found to be 0.21 × 10−3, which is lower than the world average. Sporadic fallout of 137Cs was observed with an average value of 2.0 Bq.kg−1. PMID:25237039

Increase in atmospheric CHF2Cl (HCFC-22) over southern California from 1985 to 1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Irion, Fredrick W.; Brown, Margaret; Toon, Geoffrey C.; Gunson, Michael R.

1994-01-01

Column densities of CHF2Cl (HCFC-22) have been measured over Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California (34.4 deg N) using the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer. Between October 1985 and July 1990, the exponential column increase rate was (6.7 +/- 0.5)%/yr. Additionally, column measurements of CHF2Cl over McMurdo Sound, Antarctica (78 deg S) in September and October 1986 by the MarkIV FTIR spectrometer were used to derive a south-north interhemispheric ratio of (0.86 +/- 0.08). Model calculations investigated the feasibility of using CHF2Cl column measurements with a predicted global OH field to determine a globally averaged chemical lifetime for CHF2Cl, or equivalently, an estimate of the OH field using a predicted lifetime. The current uncertainty in historical CHF2Cl emissions is too large for CHF2Cl to be used to infer adequately either the lifetime or the OH field.

Measurement of the Average $$B^{0}_{s}$$ Lifetime in the Decay $$B^{0}_{s} \\to J/\\Psi\\Phi$$

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pauly, Thilo

2003-01-01

The lifetime difference between the long (CP odd) and short (CP even) lived components of the Bg meson is currently predicted to be of the order of 10 % in the Standard Model. It has been suggested that the decay Bg —>• J/\\|> 4) is predominantly CP even and thus the measured average lifetime could be shorter than the lifetime measured in the inclusive decay modes. We present a measurement of the average lifetime of the 6° meson in its decay Eg —>• J/4> cj), with J/\\|) —> M.+ M.~ and cj) —>• K+K-. During January 2002 and August 2003more » the CDF experiment at the Tevatron has been exposed to about 135 pb" 1 of pp collisions with a centre-of-mass energy of A/S = 1.96 TeV. In the data sample collected with the J/\\Jj dimuon trigger we fully reconstruct about 125 Bg —> J/\\J) (J) candidates with precision silicon information. This is currently the largest exclusive Bg sample. We perform a fit to the proper decay time information to extract the average Bg lifetime and simultaneously use the mass information to disentangle signal from background. For cross-checks we measure the lifetime in the higher statistics modes Bj -» J/\\J> K* and B° —> J/4> K*°, which both have similar decay topologies and kinematics. We obtain r(B°s -> J/\\|> cf>) = (1.31±5:l3(stat.) ± 0.02(syst.)) ps , which is currently the best single measurement of the Bg lifetime and is consistent with other measurements. This result is not accurate enough to establish the existence of a possible significant lifetime difference between the CP odd and even states.« less

Balancing the benefits and detriments among women targeted by the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program.

PubMed

Hofvind, Solveig; Román, Marta; Sebuødegård, Sofie; Falk, Ragnhild S

2016-12-01

To compute a ratio between the estimated numbers of lives saved from breast cancer death and the number of women diagnosed with a breast cancer that never would have been diagnosed during the woman's lifetime had she not attended screening (epidemiologic over-diagnosis) in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. The Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program invites women aged 50-69 to biennial mammographic screening. Results from published studies using individual level data from the programme for estimating breast cancer mortality and epidemiologic over-diagnosis comprised the basis for the ratio. The mortality reduction varied from 36.8% to 43% among screened women, while estimates on epidemiologic over-diagnosis ranged from 7% to 19.6%. We computed the average estimates for both values. The benefit-detriment ratio, number of lives saved, and number of women over-diagnosed were computed for different scenarios of reduction in breast cancer mortality and epidemiologic over-diagnosis. For every 10,000 biennially screened women, followed until age 79, we estimated that 53-61 (average 57) women were saved from breast cancer death, and 45-126 (average 82) were over-diagnosed. The benefit-detriment ratio using average estimates was 1:1.4, indicating that the programme saved about one life per 1-2 women with epidemiologic over-diagnosis. The benefit-detriment ratio estimates of the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program, expressed as lives saved from breast cancer death and epidemiologic over-diagnosis, should be interpreted with care due to substantial uncertainties in the estimates, and the differences in the scale of values of the events compared. © The Author(s) 2016.

MIPAS ESA v7 carbon tetrachloride data: distribution, trend and atmospheric lifetime estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valeri, M.; Barbara, F.; Boone, C. D.; Ceccherini, S.; Gai, M.; Maucher, G.; Raspollini, P.; Ridolfi, M.; Sgheri, L.; Wetzel, G.; Zoppetti, N.

2017-12-01

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a strong ozone-depleting atmospheric gas regulated by the Montreal protocol. Recently it received increasing interest due to the so called "mystery of CCl4": it was found that its atmospheric concentration at the surface declines with a rate significantly smaller than its lifetime-limited rate. Indeed there is a discrepancy between atmospheric observations and the estimated distribution based on the reported production and consumption. Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements are used to estimate CCl4 distributions, its trend, and atmospheric lifetime in the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In particular, here we use MIPAS product generated with Version 7 of the Level 2 algorithm operated by the European Space Agency. The CCl4 distribution shows features typical of long-lived species of anthropogenic origin: higher concentrations in the troposphere, decreasing with altitude due to the photolysis. We compare MIPAS CCl4 data with independent observations from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE - FTS) and stratospheric balloon version of MIPAS (MIPAS-B). The comparison shows a general good agreement between the different datasets. CCl4 trends are evaluated as a function of both latitude and altitude: negative trends (-10/ -15 pptv/decade, -10/ -30 %/decade) are found at all latitudes in the UTLS, apart from a region in the Southern mid-latitudes between 50 and 10 hPa where the trend is slightly positive (5/10 pptv/decade, 15/20 %/decade). At the lowest altitudes sounded by the MIPAS scan we find trend values consistent with those determined on the basis of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / Earth System Research Laboratory / Halocarbons and other Atmospheric Trace Species (NOAA / ESRL / HATS) networks. CCl4 global average lifetime of 47(39 - 61) years has been estimated using the tracer-tracer linear correlations approach and the CFC-11 as the reference tracer. This estimation is consistent with the most recent literature result of 44(36 - 58) years.

Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants.

PubMed

Clark, Matthew T; Delos, John B; Lake, Douglas E; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

2016-04-01

A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge.

Estimate of the shielding effect on secondary cancer risk due to cone-beam CT in image-guided radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, Jiwon; Baek, Tae Seong; Yoon, Myonggeun; Kim, Dong Wook; Kim, Dong Hyun

2014-09-01

This study evaluated the effect of a simple shielding method using a thin lead sheet on the imaging dose caused by cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) in image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT). Reduction of secondary doses from CBCT was measured using a radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeter (RPLGD) placed inside an anthropomorphic phantom. The entire body, except for the region scanned by using CBCT, was shielded by wrapping it with a 2-mm lead sheet. Changes in secondary cancer risk due to shielding were calculated using BEIR VII models. Doses to out-of-field organs for head-and-neck, chest, and pelvis scans were decreased 15 ~ 100%, 23 ~ 90%, and 23 ~ 98%, respectively, and the average reductions in lifetime secondary cancer risk due to the 2-mm lead shielding were 1.6, 11.5, and 12.7 persons per 100,000, respectively. These findings suggest that a simple, thin-lead-sheet-based shielding method can effectively decrease secondary doses to out-of-field regions for CBCT, which reduces the lifetime cancer risk on average by 9 per 100,000 patients.

Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk Estimates in 16-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography

PubMed Central

Einstein, Andrew J.; Sanz, Javier; Dellegrottaglie, Santo; Milite, Margherita; Sirol, Marc; Henzlova, Milena; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

2008-01-01

Background Recent advances have led to a rapid increase in the number of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) studies performed. While several studies have reported effective dose (E), there is no data available on cancer risk for current CTCA protocols. Methods and Results E and organ doses were estimated, using scanner-derived parameters and Monte Carlo methods, for 50 patients having 16-slice CTCA performed for clinical indications. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were estimated with models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. E of a complete CTCA averaged 9.5 mSv, while that of a complete study, including calcium scoring when indicated, averaged 11.7 mSv. Calcium scoring increased E by 25%, while tube current modulation reduced it by 34% and was more effective at lower heart rates. Organ doses were highest to the lungs and female breast. LAR of cancer incidence from CTCA averaged approximately 1 in 1600, but varied widely between patients, being highest in younger women. For all patients, the greatest risk was from lung cancer. Conclusions CTCA is associated with non-negligible risk of malignancy. Doses can be reduced by careful attention to scanning protocol. PMID:18371595

Removal of sulfur dioxide and formation of sulfate aerosol in Tokyo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyakawa, T.; Takegawa, N.; Kondo, Y.

2007-07-01

Ground-based in situ measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and submicron sulfate aerosol (SO42-) together with carbon monoxide (CO) were conducted at an urban site in Tokyo, Japan from spring 2003 to winter 2004. The observed concentrations of SO2 were affected dominantly by anthropogenic emissions (for example, manufacturing industries) in source areas, while small fraction of the data (<30%) was affected by large point sources of SO2 (power plant and volcano). Although emission sources of CO in Tokyo are different from those of SO2, the major emission sources of CO and SO2 are colocated, indicating that CO can be used as a tracer of anthropogenic SO2 emissions in Tokyo. The ratio of SO42- to total sulfur compounds (SOx = SO2 + SO42-) and the remaining fraction of SOx, which is derived as the ratio of the linear regression slope of the SOx-CO correlation, is used as measures for the formation of SO42- and removal of SOx, respectively. Using these parameters, the average formation efficiency of SO42- (i.e., amount of SO42- produced per SO2 emitted from emission sources) are estimated to be 0.18 and 0.03 in the summer and winter periods, respectively. A simple box model was developed to estimate the lifetime of SOx. The lifetime of SOx for the summer period (26 h) is estimated to be about two times longer than that for the winter period (14 h). The seasonal variations of the remaining fraction of SOx, estimated formation efficiency of SO42-, and lifetime of SOx are likely due to those of the boundary layer height and photochemical activity (i.e., hydroxyl radical). These results provide useful insights into the formation and removal processes of sulfur compounds exported from an urban area.

Risk Assessment Related to Atmospheric Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Gas and Particle Phases near Industrial Sites

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Noelia; Cuadras, Anna; Marcé, Rosa Maria

2011-01-01

Background: Inhalation is one of the main means of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) because of their ubiquitous presence in the atmosphere. However, most studies have considered only PAHs found in the particle phase and have omitted the contribution of the gas-phase PAHs to the risk. Objective: We estimated the lifetime lung cancer risk from PAH exposure by inhalation in people living next to the largest chemical site in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean area. Methods: We determined 18 PAHs in the atmospheric gas and particle phase. We monitored the PAHs for 1 year in three locations near the chemical site in different seasons. We used toxic equivalence factors to calculate benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) equivalents (BaP-eq) for individual PAHs and applied the World Health Organization unit risk (UR) for BaP (UR = 8.7 × 10–5) to estimate lifetime cancer risks due to PAH exposures. Results: We observed some spatial and seasonal variability in PAH concentrations. The contribution of gas-phase PAHs to the total BaP-eq value was between 34% and 86%. The total estimated average lifetime lung cancer risk due to PAH exposure in the study area was 1.2 × 10–4. Conclusions: The estimated risk was higher than values recommended by the World Health Organization and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency but lower than the threshold value of 10–3 that is considered an indication of definite risk according to similar risk studies. The results also showed that risk may be underestimated if the contributions of gas-phase PAHs are not considered. PMID:21478082

Education and Lifetime Earnings in the United States

PubMed Central

Tamborini, Christopher R.; Kim, ChangHwan; Sakamoto, Arthur

2015-01-01

Differences in lifetime earnings by educational attainment have been of great research and policy interest. Although a large literature examines earnings differences by educational attainment, research on lifetime earnings—which refers to total accumulated earnings from entry into the labor market until retirement—remains limited because of the paucity of adequate data. Using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal tax earnings as recorded by the Social Security Administration, we estimate the 50-year work career effects of education on lifetime earnings for men and women. By overcoming the purely synthetic cohort approach, our results provide a more realistic appraisal of actual patterns of lifetime earnings. Detailed estimates are provided for gross lifetime earnings by education; net lifetime earnings after controlling for covariates associated with the probability of obtaining a bachelor’s degree; and the net present 50-year lifetime value of education at age 20. In addition, we provide estimates that include individuals with zero earnings and disability. We also assess the adequacy of the purely synthetic cohort approach, which uses age differences in earnings observed in cross-sectional surveys to approximate lifetime earnings. Overall, our results confirm the persistent positive effects of higher education on earnings over different stages of the work career and over a lifetime, but also reveal notably smaller net effects on lifetime earnings compared with previously reported estimates. We discuss the implications of these and other findings. PMID:26100983

Education and Lifetime Earnings in the United States.

PubMed

Tamborini, Christopher R; Kim, ChangHwan; Sakamoto, Arthur

2015-08-01

Differences in lifetime earnings by educational attainment have been of great research and policy interest. Although a large literature examines earnings differences by educational attainment, research on lifetime earnings--which refers to total accumulated earnings from entry into the labor market until retirement--remains limited because of the paucity of adequate data. Using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal tax earnings as recorded by the Social Security Administration, we estimate the 50-year work career effects of education on lifetime earnings for men and women. By overcoming the purely synthetic cohort approach, our results provide a more realistic appraisal of actual patterns of lifetime earnings. Detailed estimates are provided for gross lifetime earnings by education; net lifetime earnings after controlling for covariates associated with the probability of obtaining a bachelor's degree; and the net present 50-year lifetime value of education at age 20. In addition, we provide estimates that include individuals with zero earnings and disability. We also assess the adequacy of the purely synthetic cohort approach, which uses age differences in earnings observed in cross-sectional surveys to approximate lifetime earnings. Overall, our results confirm the persistent positive effects of higher education on earnings over different stages of the work career and over a lifetime, but also reveal notably smaller net effects on lifetime earnings compared with previously reported estimates. We discuss the implications of these and other findings.

A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

2013-01-01

Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, L. E.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

1999-01-01

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.

The Economic Impact of Acetabular Labral Tears: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis Comparing Hip Arthroscopic Surgery and Structured Rehabilitation Alone in Patients Without Osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Lodhia, Parth; Gui, Chengcheng; Chandrasekaran, Sivashankar; Suarez-Ahedo, Carlos; Dirschl, Douglas R; Domb, Benjamin G

2016-07-01

Hip arthroscopic surgery has emerged as a successful procedure to manage acetabular labral tears and concurrent hip injuries, which if left untreated, may contribute to hip osteoarthritis (OA). Therefore, it is essential to analyze the economic impact of this treatment option. To investigate the cost-effectiveness of hip arthroscopic surgery versus structured rehabilitation alone for acetabular labral tears, to examine the effects of age on cost-effectiveness, and to estimate the rate of symptomatic OA and total hip arthroplasty (THA) in both treatment arms over a lifetime horizon. Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 2. A cost-effectiveness analysis of hip arthroscopic surgery compared with structured rehabilitation for symptomatic labral tears was performed using a Markov decision model constructed over a lifetime horizon. It was assumed that patients did not have OA. Direct costs (in 2014 United States dollars), utilities of health states (in quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] gained), and probabilities of transitioning between health states were estimated from a comprehensive literature review. Costs were estimated using national averages of Medicare reimbursements, adjusted for all payers in the United States from a societal perspective. Utilities were estimated from the Harris Hip Score. Cost-effectiveness was assessed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the effect of uncertainty on the model outcomes. For a cohort representative of patients undergoing hip arthroscopic surgery at our facility, arthroscopic surgery was more costly (additional $2653) but generated more utility (additional 3.94 QALYs) compared with rehabilitation over a lifetime. The mean ICER was $754/QALY, well below the conventional willingness to pay of $50,000/QALY. Arthroscopic surgery was cost-effective for 94.5% of patients. Although arthroscopic surgery decreased in cost-effectiveness with increasing age, arthroscopic surgery remained more cost-effective than rehabilitation for patients in the second to seventh decades of life. The lifetime incidence of symptomatic hip OA was over twice as high for patients treated with rehabilitation compared with arthroscopic surgery. The preferred treatment was sensitive to the utility after successful hip arthroscopic surgery, although the utility at which arthroscopic surgery becomes less cost-effective than rehabilitation is far below our best estimate. For older patients, the lifetime cost of arthroscopic surgery was greater, while the lifetime utility of arthroscopic surgery was less, approaching that of the rehabilitation arm. Hip arthroscopic surgery is more cost-effective and results in a considerably lower incidence of symptomatic OA than structured rehabilitation alone in treating symptomatic labral tears of patients in the second to seventh decades of life without pre-existing OA. © 2016 The Author(s).

Remedial Investigation Report Area of Contamination (AOC) 43J. Volume 1 of 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-02-01

produced risks within the USEPA range (1x1W05 and 3x10’, respectively). If the modified cancer slope factor (CSF) for arsenic was used to estimate excess...lifetime cancer risks for both source area and downgradient groundwater quality, then the cancer risks associated with exposure to both average and...very poorly drained; nearly level, organic; occurs in depressions and on flat areas of uplands and glacial outwash plains. Windsor Series. Deep

The Trojan Lifetime Champions Health Survey: development, validity, and reliability.

PubMed

Sorenson, Shawn C; Romano, Russell; Scholefield, Robin M; Schroeder, E Todd; Azen, Stanley P; Salem, George J

2015-04-01

Self-report questionnaires are an important method of evaluating lifespan health, exercise, and health-related quality of life (HRQL) outcomes among elite, competitive athletes. Few instruments, however, have undergone formal characterization of their psychometric properties within this population. To evaluate the validity and reliability of a novel health and exercise questionnaire, the Trojan Lifetime Champions (TLC) Health Survey. Descriptive laboratory study. A large National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I university. A total of 63 university alumni (age range, 24 to 84 years), including former varsity collegiate athletes and a control group of nonathletes. Participants completed the TLC Health Survey twice at a mean interval of 23 days with randomization to the paper or electronic version of the instrument. Content validity, feasibility of administration, test-retest reliability, parallel-form reliability between paper and electronic forms, and estimates of systematic and typical error versus differences of clinical interest were assessed across a broad range of health, exercise, and HRQL measures. Correlation coefficients, including intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for continuous variables and κ agreement statistics for ordinal variables, for test-retest reliability averaged 0.86, 0.90, 0.80, and 0.74 for HRQL, lifetime health, recent health, and exercise variables, respectively. Correlation coefficients, again ICCs and κ, for parallel-form reliability (ie, equivalence) between paper and electronic versions averaged 0.90, 0.85, 0.85, and 0.81 for HRQL, lifetime health, recent health, and exercise variables, respectively. Typical measurement error was less than the a priori thresholds of clinical interest, and we found minimal evidence of systematic test-retest error. We found strong evidence of content validity, convergent construct validity with the Short-Form 12 Version 2 HRQL instrument, and feasibility of administration in an elite, competitive athletic population. These data suggest that the TLC Health Survey is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing lifetime and recent health, exercise, and HRQL, among elite competitive athletes. Generalizability of the instrument may be enhanced by additional, larger-scale studies in diverse populations.

Lifetime exposure to arsenic in drinking water and bladder cancer: a population-based case–control study in Michigan, USA

PubMed Central

Slotnick, Melissa J.; AvRuskin, Gillian A.; Schottenfeld, David; Jacquez, Geoffrey M.; Wilson, Mark L.; Goovaerts, Pierre; Franzblau, Alfred; Nriagu, Jerome O.

2014-01-01

Objective Arsenic in drinking water has been linked with the risk of urinary bladder cancer, but the dose–response relationships for arsenic exposures below 100 µg/L remain equivocal. We conducted a population-based case–control study in southeastern Michigan, USA, where approximately 230,000 people were exposed to arsenic concentrations between 10 and 100 µg/L. Methods This study included 411 bladder cancer cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2004, and 566 controls recruited during the same period. Individual lifetime exposure profiles were reconstructed, and residential water source histories, water consumption practices, and water arsenic measurements or modeled estimates were determined at all residences. Arsenic exposure was estimated for 99% of participants’ person-years. Results Overall, an increase in bladder cancer risk was not found for time-weighted average lifetime arsenic exposure >10 µg/L when compared with a reference group exposed to <1 µg/L (odds ratio (OR) = 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65, 1.86). Among ever-smokers, risks from arsenic exposure >10 µg/L were similarly not elevated when compared to the reference group (OR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.50, 1.78). Conclusions We did not find persuasive evidence of an association between low-level arsenic exposure and bladder cancer. Selecting the appropriate exposure metric needs to be thoughtfully considered when investigating risk from low-level arsenic exposure. PMID:20084543

The effect of smoking on the healthy life expectancy of Palestinian men in the West Bank: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Jonassen, Marie; Shaheen, Amira; Duraidi, Mohammed; Qalalwa, Khaled; Jeune, Bernard

2018-02-21

The high prevalence of smoking (40%) in men living in the West Bank of the occupied Palestinian territory is a major challenge for the Palestinian health authorities. The aim of this study was to estimate life expectancy and the average lifetime with and without chronic disease in men living in the West Bank who had never smoked, were ex-smokers, or were smokers. We used a life table for the male population in the West Bank and Danish relative risk estimates for death for smokers and ex-smokers versus never smokers and data from the 2010 Palestinian Family Survey. We estimated expected life time with and without chronic disease, and the contributions from the mortality and morbidity effects to smoking-related differences in average lifetime with and without chronic disease were assessed by decomposition. The life expectancy of a Palestinian man aged 15 years who would never start smoking was 59·5 years, of which 41·1 years (95% CI 40·3-41·9) were expected to be without chronic disease. Ex-smokers could expect 57·9 years of remaining life time, 37·7 years (35·9-39·4) of which would be without chronic disease. For life-long heavy smokers, the expected lifetime was 52·6 years, of which 38·5 years (37·3-39·7) would be without chronic disease. Of the total loss of 6·9 years of life expectancy in heavy smokers, the mortality effect accounted for 2·5 years without disease and 4·4 years with disease, whereas the morbidity effect was negligible. The morbidity component of the decomposition accounted for 1·7 years with disease for moderate smokers and 2·9 years without disease for ex-smokers. The high prevalence of smoking causes a considerable loss of life-years and life time without chronic disease. We recommend that the Palestinian health authorities enforce an anti-smoking law. None. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mackillop, William J., E-mail: william.mackillop@krcc.on.ca; Kong, Weidong; Brundage, Michael

Purpose: Estimates of the appropriate rate of use of radiation therapy (RT) are required for planning and monitoring access to RT. Our objective was to compare estimates of the appropriate rate of use of RT derived from mathematical models, with the rate observed in a population of patients with optimal access to RT. Methods and Materials: The rate of use of RT within 1 year of diagnosis (RT{sub 1Y}) was measured in the 134,541 cases diagnosed in Ontario between November 2009 and October 2011. The lifetime rate of use of RT (RT{sub LIFETIME}) was estimated by the multicohort utilization tablemore » method. Poisson regression was used to evaluate potential barriers to access to RT and to identify a benchmark subpopulation with unimpeded access to RT. Rates of use of RT were measured in the benchmark subpopulation and compared with published evidence-based estimates of the appropriate rates. Results: The benchmark rate for RT{sub 1Y}, observed under conditions of optimal access, was 33.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.0%-34.1%), and the benchmark for RT{sub LIFETIME} was 41.5% (95% CI, 41.2%-42.0%). Benchmarks for RT{sub LIFETIME} for 4 of 5 selected sites and for all cancers combined were significantly lower than the corresponding evidence-based estimates. Australian and Canadian evidence-based estimates of RT{sub LIFETIME} for 5 selected sites differed widely. RT{sub LIFETIME} in the overall population of Ontario was just 7.9% short of the benchmark but 20.9% short of the Australian evidence-based estimate of the appropriate rate. Conclusions: Evidence-based estimates of the appropriate lifetime rate of use of RT may overestimate the need for RT in Ontario.« less

Physical Properties of Umbral Dots Observed in Sunspots: A Hinode Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Rahul; Mathew, Shibu K.

2018-04-01

Umbral dots (UDs) are small-scale bright features observed in the umbral part of sunspots and pores. It is well established that they are manifestations of magnetoconvection phenomena inside umbrae. We study the physical properties of UDs in different sunspots and their dependence on decay rate and filling factor. We have selected high-resolution, G-band continuum filtergrams of seven sunspots from Hinode to study their physical properties. We have also used Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) continuum images to estimate the decay rate of selected sunspots. An identification and tracking algorithm was developed to identify the UDs in time sequences. The statistical analysis of UDs exhibits an averaged maximum intensity and effective diameter of 0.26 I_{QS} and 270 km. Furthermore, the lifetime, horizontal speed, trajectory length, and displacement length (birth-death distance) of UDs are 8.19 minutes, 0.5 km s-1, 284 km, and 155 km, respectively. We also find a positive correlation between intensity-diameter, intensity-lifetime, and diameter-lifetime of UDs. However, UD properties do not show any significant relation with the decay rate or filling factor.

Characterization of the relationship between ceramic pot filter water production and turbidity in source water.

PubMed

Salvinelli, Carlo; Elmore, A Curt; Reidmeyer, Mary R; Drake, K David; Ahmad, Khaldoun I

2016-11-01

Ceramic pot filters represent a common and effective household water treatment technology in developing countries, but factors impacting water production rate are not well-known. Turbidity of source water may be principal indicator in characterizing the filter's lifetime in terms of water production capacity. A flow rate study was conducted by creating four controlled scenarios with different turbidities, and influent and effluent water samples were tested for total suspended solids and particle size distribution. A relationship between average flow rate and turbidity was identified with a negative linear trend of 50 mLh -1 /NTU. Also, a positive linear relationship was found between the initial flow rate of the filters and average flow rate calculated over the 23 day life of the experiment. Therefore, it was possible to establish a method to estimate the average flow rate given the initial flow rate and the turbidity in the influent water source, and to back calculate the maximum average turbidity that would need to be maintained in order to achieve a specific average flow rate. However, long-term investigations should be conducted to assess how these relationships change over the expected CPF lifetime. CPFs rejected fine suspended particles (below 75 μm), especially particles with diameters between 0.375 μm and 10 μm. The results confirmed that ceramic pot filters are able to effectively reduce turbidity, but pretreatment of influent water should be performed to avoid premature failure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variations of carbonaceous aerosols from open crop residue burning with transport and its implication to estimate their lifetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, X. L.; Kanaya, Y.; Wang, Z. F.; Komazaki, Y.; Taketani, F.; Akimoto, H.; Pochanart, P.

2013-08-01

Studying the correlations of carbonaceous aerosols (element carbon, EC, and organic carbon, OC) from open biomass burning helps to reduce uncertainties in emission inventories and provides necessary constraints for model simulations. In the present study, we measured apparent elemental carbon (ECa) and OC concentrations at the summit of Mount Tai (Mt. Tai) during intensive open crop residue burning (OCRB) episodes using a Sunset OCEC analyzer. In the fine particle mode, OC and ECa showed strong correlations (r > 0.9) with carbon monoxide (CO). Footprint analysis using the FLEXPART_WRF model indicated that OCRB in Central East China had a significant influence on ambient carbonaceous aerosol loadings at the summit of Mt. Tai. During campaign, ΔECa/ΔCO ratios of OCRB plumes were found to be 14.3 ± 1.0 ng m-3 ppbv at Mt. Tai. This ratio was twice larger than those for urban pollution in CEC, demonstrating that significant emissions of soot particles emitted from OCRB. ΔOC/ΔCO ratio of OCRB plumes was found to be 41.9 ± 2.6 ng m-3 ppbv averagely. The transport time of smoke particles was estimated using the FLEXPART_WRF tracer model by releasing particles from the ground layer inside geographical regions where large numbers of hotspots were detected by the MODIS sensor. The relationship between transport time and observed ΔECa/ΔCO and ΔOC/ΔCO ratios was fitted by an e-folding exponential function. Results showed that the loss rate of OC (normalized by CO) with transport was much quicker than that of ECa mass, and the corresponding lifetime of OC mass was estimated to be 28.0-44.2 h (1.2-1.8 days), much shorter than that 98.4-136.9 h (4.1-5.7 days) of ECa. Lifetime of ECa estimated for the OCRB events in CEC in the study was comparably lower than the values normally calculated by the transport models. Short lifetime of OC highlighted its vulnerability to cloud scavenging in the presence of water-soluble organic species from biomass combustion.

Development of a high average current polarized electron source with long cathode operational lifetime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. K. Sinclair; P. A. Adderley; B. M. Dunham

Substantially more than half of the electromagnetic nuclear physics experiments conducted at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility of the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Laboratory) require highly polarized electron beams, often at high average current. Spin-polarized electrons are produced by photoemission from various GaAs-based semiconductor photocathodes, using circularly polarized laser light with photon energy slightly larger than the semiconductor band gap. The photocathodes are prepared by activation of the clean semiconductor surface to negative electron affinity using cesium and oxidation. Historically, in many laboratories worldwide, these photocathodes have had short operational lifetimes at high average current, and havemore » often deteriorated fairly quickly in ultrahigh vacuum even without electron beam delivery. At Jefferson Lab, we have developed a polarized electron source in which the photocathodes degrade exceptionally slowly without electron emission, and in which ion back bombardment is the predominant mechanism limiting the operational lifetime of the cathodes during electron emission. We have reproducibly obtained cathode 1/e dark lifetimes over two years, and 1/e charge density and charge lifetimes during electron beam delivery of over 2?105???C/cm2 and 200 C, respectively. This source is able to support uninterrupted high average current polarized beam delivery to three experimental halls simultaneously for many months at a time. Many of the techniques we report here are directly applicable to the development of GaAs photoemission electron guns to deliver high average current, high brightness unpolarized beams.« less

Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Bleibler, Florian; Rapp, Kilian; Jaensch, Andrea; Becker, Clemens; König, Hans-Helmut

2014-06-30

Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany. A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to € 4,479 (€ 1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital € 1,743 (€ 751) and long-term care sectors € 1,210 (€ 620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€ 7,463 vs. € 2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture. The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures.

Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany. Methods A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to €4,479 (€1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital €1,743 (€751) and long-term care sectors €1,210 (€620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€7,463 vs. €2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture. Conclusion The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures. PMID:24981316

Estimation of lifetime distributions on 1550-nm DFB laser diodes using Monte-Carlo statistic computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshayes, Yannick; Verdier, Frederic; Bechou, Laurent; Tregon, Bernard; Danto, Yves; Laffitte, Dominique; Goudard, Jean Luc

2004-09-01

High performance and high reliability are two of the most important goals driving the penetration of optical transmission into telecommunication systems ranging from 880 nm to 1550 nm. Lifetime prediction defined as the time at which a parameter reaches its maximum acceptable shirt still stays the main result in terms of reliability estimation for a technology. For optoelectronic emissive components, selection tests and life testing are specifically used for reliability evaluation according to Telcordia GR-468 CORE requirements. This approach is based on extrapolation of degradation laws, based on physics of failure and electrical or optical parameters, allowing both strong test time reduction and long-term reliability prediction. Unfortunately, in the case of mature technology, there is a growing complexity to calculate average lifetime and failure rates (FITs) using ageing tests in particular due to extremely low failure rates. For present laser diode technologies, time to failure tend to be 106 hours aged under typical conditions (Popt=10 mW and T=80°C). These ageing tests must be performed on more than 100 components aged during 10000 hours mixing different temperatures and drive current conditions conducting to acceleration factors above 300-400. These conditions are high-cost, time consuming and cannot give a complete distribution of times to failure. A new approach consists in use statistic computations to extrapolate lifetime distribution and failure rates in operating conditions from physical parameters of experimental degradation laws. In this paper, Distributed Feedback single mode laser diodes (DFB-LD) used for 1550 nm telecommunication network working at 2.5 Gbit/s transfer rate are studied. Electrical and optical parameters have been measured before and after ageing tests, performed at constant current, according to Telcordia GR-468 requirements. Cumulative failure rates and lifetime distributions are computed using statistic calculations and equations of drift mechanisms versus time fitted from experimental measurements.

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voulgarakis, A.; Naik, V.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Shindell, D. T.; Young, P. J.; Prather, M. J.; Wild, O.; Field, R. D.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith P.;

Positron annihilation lifetime study of polyvinylpyrrolidone for nanoparticle-stabilizing pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Shpotyuk, O; Bujňáková, Z; Baláž, P; Ingram, A; Shpotyuk, Y

2016-01-05

Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy was applied to characterize free-volume structure of polyvinylpyrrolidone used as nonionic stabilizer in the production of many nanocomposite pharmaceuticals. The polymer samples with an average molecular weight of 40,000 g mol(-1) were pelletized in a single-punch tableting machine under an applied pressure of 0.7 GPa. Strong mixing in channels of positron and positronium trapping were revealed in the polyvinylpyrrolidone pellets. The positron lifetime spectra accumulated under normal measuring statistics were analysed in terms of unconstrained three- and four-term decomposition, the latter being also realized under fixed 0.125 ns lifetime proper to para-positronium self-annihilation in a vacuum. It was shown that average positron lifetime extracted from each decomposition was primary defined by long-lived ortho-positronium component. The positron lifetime spectra treated within unconstrained three-term fitting were in obvious preference, giving third positron lifetime dominated by ortho-positronium pick-off annihilation in a polymer matrix. This fitting procedure was most meaningful, when analysing expected positron trapping sites in polyvinylpyrrolidone-stabilized nanocomposite pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lifetime Earnings Estimates for Men and Women in the United States: 1979.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burkhead, Dan L.

1983-01-01

This report presents estimates of expected lifetime earnings based on data collected in the March Current Population Survey by age, sex, and educational attainment for 1978, 1979, and 1980. The text describes the data tables and charts, methodology, and limitations of the data. The eight figures and five detailed tables present lifetime earning…

Polymerization of anionic wormlike micelles.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhiyuan; González, Yamaira I; Xu, Hangxun; Kaler, Eric W; Liu, Shiyong

2006-01-31

Polymerizable anionic wormlike micelles are obtained upon mixing the hydrotropic salt p-toluidine hydrochloride (PTHC) with the reactive anionic surfactant sodium 4-(8-methacryloyloxyoctyl)oxybenzene sulfonate (MOBS). Polymerization captures the cross-sectional radius of the micelles (approximately 2 nm), induces micellar growth, and leads to the formation of a stable single-phase dispersion of wormlike micellar polymers. The unpolymerized and polymerized micelles were characterized using static and dynamic laser light scattering, small-angle neutron scattering, 1H NMR, and stopped-flow light scattering. Stopped-flow light scattering was also used to measure the average lifetime of the unpolymerized wormlike micelles. A comparison of the average lifetime of unpolymerized wormlike micelles with the surfactant monomer propagation rate was used to elucidate the mechanism of polymerization. There is a significant correlation between the ratio of the average lifetime to the monomer propagation rate and the average aggregation number of the polymerized wormlike micelles.

Perimeter Governed Minority Carrier Lifetimes in 4H-SiC p+n Diodes Measured by Reverse Recovery Switching Transient Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neudeck, Philip G.

1998-01-01

Minority carrier lifetimes in epitaxial 4H-SiC p-n junction diodes were measured via an analysis of reverse recovery switching characteristics. Behavior of reverse recovery storage time (t(sub s)) as a function of initial ON-state forward current (I(sub f)) and OFF-state reverse current (I(sub R)) followed well-documented trends which have been observed for decades in silicon p-n rectifiers. Average minority carrier (hole) lifetimes (tau(sub p)) calculated from plots of t(sub s) vs I(sub R)/I(sub F) strongly decreased with decreasing device area. Bulk and perimeter components of average hole lifetimes were separated by plotting tau(sub p) as a function of device perimeter-to-area ratio (P/A). This plot reveals that perimeter recombination is dominant in these devices, whose areas are all less than 1 square mm. The bulk minority carrier (hole) lifetime extracted from the 1/Tau(sub p) vs P/A plot is approximately 0.7 microns, well above the 60 ns to 300 ns average lifetimes obtained when perimeter recombination effects are ignored in the analysis. Given the fact that there has been little previous investigation of bipolar diode and transistor performance as a function of perimeter-to-area ratio, this work raises the possibility that perimeter recombination may be partly responsible for poor effective minority carrier lifetimes and limited performance obtained in many previous SiC bipolar junction devices.

Lifetime estimates for sterilizable silver-zinc battery separators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cuddihy, E. F.; Walmsley, D. E.; Moacanin, J.

1972-01-01

The lifetime of separator membranes currently employed in the electrolyte environment of silver-zinc batteries was estimated at 3 to 5 years. The separator membranes are crosslinked polyethylene film containing grafted poly (potassium acrylate)(PKA), the latter being the hydrophilic agent which promotes electrolyte ion transport. The lifetime was estimated by monitoring the rate of loss of PKA from the separators, caused by chemical attack of the electrolyte, and relating this loss rate to a known relationship between battery performance and PKA concentration in the separators.

Cost of traumatic brain injury in New Zealand: evidence from a population-based study.

PubMed

Te Ao, Braden; Brown, Paul; Tobias, Martin; Ameratunga, Shanthi; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Theadom, Alice; McPherson, Kathryn; Starkey, Nicola; Dowell, Anthony; Jones, Kelly; Feigin, Valery L

2014-10-28

We aimed to estimate from a societal perspective the 1-year and lifetime direct and indirect costs of traumatic brain injury (TBI) for New Zealand (NZ) in 2010 projected to 2020. An incidence-based cost of illness model was developed using data from the Brain Injury Outcomes New Zealand in the Community Study. Details of TBI-related resource use during the first 12 months after injury were obtained for 725 cases using resource utilization information from participant surveys and medical records. Total costs are presented in US dollars year 2010 value. In 2010, 11,301 first-ever TBI cases were estimated to have occurred in NZ; total first-year cost of all new TBI cases was estimated to be US $47.9 million with total prevalence costs of US $101.4 million. The average cost per new TBI case during the first 12 months and over a lifetime was US $5,922 (95% confidence interval [CI] $4,777-$7,858), varying from US $4,636 (95% CI $3,756-$5,561) for mild cases to US $36,648 (95% CI $16,348-$65,350) for moderate/severe cases. Because of the unexpectedly large number of mild TBI cases (95% of all TBI cases), the total cost of treating these cases is nearly 3 times that of moderate/severe. The total lifetime cost of all TBI survivors in 2010 was US $146.5 million and is expected to increase to US $177.1 million in 2020. The results suggest that there is an urgent need to develop effective interventions to prevent both mild and moderate/severe TBI. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Wood durability and stability without toxicity

Treesearch

Roger M. Rowell; Rebecca E. Ibach; Thomas Nilsson

2010-01-01

Part of a sustainable future for wood products depends on extending the lifetime of wood used in adverse environments. For some products such as the daily news paper, the average life of the products is one day. For packaging, the products average life time may be as few days to a few weeks. For pallets and wooden containers, the lifetime may be several months. For...

Online multispectral fluorescence lifetime values estimation and overlay onto tissue white-light video frames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorpas, Dimitris; Ma, Dinglong; Bec, Julien; Yankelevich, Diego R.; Marcu, Laura

2016-03-01

Fluorescence lifetime imaging has been shown to be a robust technique for biochemical and functional characterization of tissues and to present great potential for intraoperative tissue diagnosis and guidance of surgical procedures. We report a technique for real-time mapping of fluorescence parameters (i.e. lifetime values) onto the location from where the fluorescence measurements were taken. This is achieved by merging a 450 nm aiming beam generated by a diode laser with the excitation light in a single delivery/collection fiber and by continuously imaging the region of interest with a color CMOS camera. The interrogated locations are then extracted from the acquired frames via color-based segmentation of the aiming beam. Assuming a Gaussian profile of the imaged aiming beam, the segmentation results are fitted to ellipses that are dynamically scaled at the full width of three automatically estimated thresholds (50%, 75%, 90%) of the Gaussian distribution's maximum value. This enables the dynamic augmentation of the white-light video frames with the corresponding fluorescence decay parameters. A fluorescence phantom and fresh tissue samples were used to evaluate this method with motorized and hand-held scanning measurements. At 640x512 pixels resolution the area of interest augmented with fluorescence decay parameters can be imaged at an average 34 frames per second. The developed method has the potential to become a valuable tool for real-time display of optical spectroscopy data during continuous scanning applications that subsequently can be used for tissue characterization and diagnosis.

Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer.

PubMed

Wun, L M; Merrill, R M; Feuer, E J

1998-01-01

Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case for age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.

Influence of Initial Inclined Surface Crack on Estimated Residual Fatigue Lifetime of Railway Axle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Náhlík, Luboš; Pokorný, Pavel; Ševčík, Martin; Hutař, Pavel

2016-11-01

Railway axles are subjected to cyclic loading which can lead to fatigue failure. For safe operation of railway axles a damage tolerance approach taking into account a possible defect on railway axle surface is often required. The contribution deals with an estimation of residual fatigue lifetime of railway axle with initial inclined surface crack. 3D numerical model of inclined semi-elliptical surface crack in railway axle was developed and its curved propagation through the axle was simulated by finite element method. Presence of press-fitted wheel in the vicinity of initial crack was taken into account. A typical loading spectrum of railway axle was considered and residual fatigue lifetime was estimated by NASGRO approach. Material properties of typical axle steel EA4T were considered in numerical calculations and lifetime estimation.

Chronic beryllium disease and cancer risk estimates with uncertainty for beryllium released to the air from the Rocky Flats Plant.

PubMed Central

McGavran, P D; Rood, A S; Till, J E

1999-01-01

Beryllium was released into the air from routine operations and three accidental fires at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Colorado from 1958 to 1989. We evaluated environmental monitoring data and developed estimates of airborne concentrations and their uncertainties and calculated lifetime cancer risks and risks of chronic beryllium disease to hypothetical receptors. This article discusses exposure-response relationships for lung cancer and chronic beryllium disease. We assigned a distribution to cancer slope factor values based on the relative risk estimates from an occupational epidemiologic study used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to determine the slope factors. We used the regional atmospheric transport code for Hanford emission tracking atmospheric transport model for exposure calculations because it is particularly well suited for long-term annual-average dispersion estimates and it incorporates spatially varying meteorologic and environmental parameters. We accounted for model prediction uncertainty by using several multiplicative stochastic correction factors that accounted for uncertainty in the dispersion estimate, the meteorology, deposition, and plume depletion. We used Monte Carlo techniques to propagate model prediction uncertainty through to the final risk calculations. We developed nine exposure scenarios of hypothetical but typical residents of the RFP area to consider the lifestyle, time spent outdoors, location, age, and sex of people who may have been exposed. We determined geometric mean incremental lifetime cancer incidence risk estimates for beryllium inhalation for each scenario. The risk estimates were < 10(-6). Predicted air concentrations were well below the current reference concentration derived by the EPA for beryllium sensitization. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 PMID:10464074

Global economic burden of Chagas disease: a computational simulation model.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Bacon, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

2013-04-01

As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806,170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29,385,250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27,684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. The economic burden of Chagas disease is similar to or exceeds those of other prominent diseases globally (eg, rotavirus $2·0 billion, cervical cancer $4·7 billion) even in the USA (Lyme disease $2·5 billion), where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic, suggesting an economic argument for more attention and efforts towards control of Chagas disease. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldman, Marvin; Hoover, Mark D.; Nelson, Robert C.; Templeton, William; Bollinger, Lance; Anspaugh, Lynn

1991-01-01

Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later time after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher.

Long-term life testing of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) encoder lamps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Charles E.

1992-01-01

The aging characteristics and lifetimes of tungsten filament encoder lamps were determined as a function of operating voltage and filament material. For pure tungsten and thoria doped (1 pct.) filament lamps, crystal grain growth over the center portion of the filament leads to the ultimate failure of the lamp. The development of notches associated with this grain growth is the cause of lamp burn out. Eventually, one of the notches will 'etch' through the filament, causing it to fail open. For rhenium doped (3 pct.) filament lamps, distortion of the filament leads to the ultimate failure of the lamp. The lifetime of these lamps is about 1 year at an operating voltage of 5.0 volts. The pure tungsten filament lamps have the longest average lifetime, and the thoria doped filament lamps have the shortest at 5.0 volts. The lifetimes of these lamps is about 7 years at an operating voltage of 3.5 volts. Data suggest that the rhenium doped lamps will have the longest average lifetime at 3.5 volts, and the thoria doped will have the shortest. These lifetimes are comparable to the desired lifetimes of 7 years.

Lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates for mental disorders in northeastern Germany: findings from the Study of Health in Pomerania.

PubMed

Asselmann, E; Beesdo-Baum, K; Hamm, A; Schmidt, C O; Hertel, J; Grabe, H J; Pané-Farré, C A

2018-06-15

Few epidemiological studies presented 12-month and lifetime prevalence estimates for DSM-IV mental disorders in the adult general population by sex and age up to very old age. From 2007 to 2010, DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI among N = 2400 participants (aged 29-89 years) from the Study of Health in Pomerania, an epidemiological study based on a two-stage stratified cluster sample randomly drawn from the adult general population in northeastern Germany. 36.3% of the sample was affected by any 12-month and 54.8% by any lifetime mental disorder. The most frequent diagnostic groups were anxiety (12-month: 14.8%, lifetime: 23.4%), substance use (12-month: 14.5%, lifetime: 25.0%), somatoform (12-month: 12.9%, lifetime: 20.4%) and depressive (12-month: 7.3%, lifetime: 18.6%) disorders. Except for substance use (higher prevalence in men) and bipolar disorders (comparable prevalence in men and women), higher 12-month and lifetime prevalence estimates were found in women vs. men. Moreover, lower 12-month and lifetime prevalence estimates were found in older (aged 60-74 or 75-89 years) vs. younger (aged 29-44 or 45-59 years) age groups. 22.6% (men: 21.1%, women: 23.9%) of those affected by any 12-month disorder met criteria for two and 13.6% (men: 9.6%, women: 16.9%) for three or more 12-month diagnoses. Similarly, 26.4% (men: 25.7%, women: 26.9%) of those affected by any lifetime disorder met criteria for two and 22.7% (men: 19.6%, women: 25.2%) for three or more lifetime diagnoses. Our findings demonstrate the frequency of mental disorders in northeastern Germany and emphasize the need for continued prevention and intervention efforts.

Patients with Testicular Cancer Undergoing CT Surveillance Demonstrate a Pitfall of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Estimates: The Timing Paradox

PubMed Central

Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Lee, Richard J.; Gilmore, Michael E.; Turan, Ekin A.; Singh, Sarabjeet; Kalra, Mannudeep K.; Liu, Bob; Kong, Chung Yin; Gazelle, G. Scott

2013-01-01

Purpose: To demonstrate a limitation of lifetime radiation-induced cancer risk metrics in the setting of testicular cancer surveillance—in particular, their failure to capture the delayed timing of radiation-induced cancers over the course of a patient’s lifetime. Materials and Methods: Institutional review board approval was obtained for the use of computed tomographic (CT) dosimetry data in this study. Informed consent was waived. This study was HIPAA compliant. A Markov model was developed to project outcomes in patients with testicular cancer who were undergoing CT surveillance in the decade after orchiectomy. To quantify effects of early versus delayed risks, life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to testicular cancer were compared with life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to radiation-induced cancers from CT. Projections of life expectancy loss, unlike lifetime risk estimates, account for the timing of risks over the course of a lifetime, which enabled evaluation of the described limitation of lifetime risk estimates. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty of the results. Results: As an example of evidence yielded, 33-year-old men with stage I seminoma who were undergoing CT surveillance were projected to incur a slightly higher lifetime mortality risk from testicular cancer (598 per 100 000; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 302, 894) than from radiation-induced cancers (505 per 100 000; 95% UI: 280, 730). However, life expectancy loss attributable to testicular cancer (83 days; 95% UI: 42, 124) was more than three times greater than life expectancy loss attributable to radiation-induced cancers (24 days; 95% UI: 13, 35). Trends were consistent across modeled scenarios. Conclusion: Lifetime radiation risk estimates, when used for decision making, may overemphasize radiation-induced cancer risks relative to short-term health risks. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.12121015/-/DC1 PMID:23249573

Lifetime indirect cost of childhood overweight and obesity: A decision analytic model.

PubMed

Sonntag, Diana; Ali, Shehzad; De Bock, Freia

2016-01-01

To estimate the indirect lifetime cost of childhood overweight and obesity for Germany. The lifetime cohort model consisted of two parts: (a) Model I used data from the German Interview and Examination Survey for Children on prevalence of BMI categories during childhood to evaluate BMI trajectories before the age of 18; and (b) Model II estimated lifetime excess indirect cost based on the history of childhood BMI. Indirect costs were defined as the opportunity cost of lost productivity due to mortality and morbidity and were identified through a systematic literature review. Our analysis showed that the majority of children with overweight and obesity remained in the same BMI category during their adult life, resulting in significant indirect lifetime costs. We estimated that overweight and obesity during childhood resulted in an excess lifetime cost per person of €4,209 (men) and €2,445 (women). For the current prevalent German population, the excess lifetime cost was €145 billion. Our study showed that childhood obesity results in significant economic burden on the society. Therefore, cost-effective strategies targeted at reducing the prevalence of obesity during the early years of life can significantly reduce both healthcare and nonhealthcare costs over the lifetime. © 2015 The Obesity Society.

Using machine learning for real-time estimates of snow water equivalent in the watersheds of Afghanistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bair, Edward H.; Abreu Calfa, Andre; Rittger, Karl; Dozier, Jeff

2018-05-01

In the mountains, snowmelt often provides most of the runoff. Operational estimates use imagery from optical and passive microwave sensors, but each has its limitations. An accurate approach, which we validate in Afghanistan and the Sierra Nevada USA, reconstructs spatially distributed snow water equivalent (SWE) by calculating snowmelt backward from a remotely sensed date of disappearance. However, reconstructed SWE estimates are available only retrospectively; they do not provide a forecast. To estimate SWE throughout the snowmelt season, we consider physiographic and remotely sensed information as predictors and reconstructed SWE as the target. The period of analysis matches the AMSR-E radiometer's lifetime from 2003 to 2011, for the months of April through June. The spatial resolution of the predictions is 3.125 km, to match the resolution of a microwave brightness temperature product. Two machine learning techniques - bagged regression trees and feed-forward neural networks - produced similar mean results, with 0-14 % bias and 46-48 mm RMSE on average. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies averaged 0.68 for all years. Daily SWE climatology and fractional snow-covered area are the most important predictors. We conclude that these methods can accurately estimate SWE during the snow season in remote mountains, and thereby provide an independent estimate to forecast runoff and validate other methods to assess the snow resource.

The lifetime risk of maternal mortality: concept and measurement

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Abstract Objective The lifetime risk of maternal mortality, which describes the cumulative loss of life due to maternal deaths over the female life course, is an important summary measure of population health. However, despite its interpretive appeal, the lifetime risk of dying from maternal causes can be defined and calculated in various ways. A clear and concise discussion of both its underlying concept and methods of measurement is badly needed. Methods I define and compare a variety of procedures for calculating the lifetime risk of maternal mortality. I use detailed survey data from Bangladesh in 2001 to illustrate these calculations and compare the properties of the various risk measures. Using official UN estimates of maternal mortality for 2005, I document the differences in lifetime risk derived with the various measures. Findings Taking sub-Saharan Africa as an example, the range of estimates for the 2005 lifetime risk extends from 3.41% to 5.76%, or from 1 in 29 to 1 in 17. The highest value resulted from the method used for producing official UN estimates for the year 2000. The measure recommended here has an intermediate value of 4.47%, or 1 in 22. Conclusion There are strong reasons to consider the calculation method proposed here more accurate and appropriate than earlier procedures. Accordingly, it was adopted for use in producing the 2005 UN estimates of the lifetime risk of maternal mortality. By comparison, the method used for the 2000 UN estimates appears to overestimate this important measure of population health by around 20%. PMID:19551233

Characteristic Lifelength of Coherent Structure in the Turbulent Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.

2006-01-01

A characteristic lifelength is defined by which a Gaussian distribution is fit to data correlated over a 3 sensor array sampling streamwise sidewall pressure. The data were acquired at subsonic, transonic and supersonic speeds aboard a Tu-144. Lifelengths are estimated using the cross spectrum and are shown to compare favorably with Efimtsov's prediction of correlation space scales. Lifelength distributions are computed in the time/frequency domain using an interval correlation technique on the continuous wavelet transform of the original time data. The median values of the lifelength distributions are found to be very close to the frequency averaged result. The interval correlation technique is shown to allow the retrieval and inspection of the original time data of each event in the lifelength distribution, thus providing a means to locate and study the nature of the coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer. The lifelength data can be converted to lifetimes using the convection velocity. The lifetime of events in the time/frequency domain are displayed in Lifetime Maps. The primary purpose of the paper is to validate these new analysis techniques so that they can be used with confidence to further characterize coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer.

The Trojan Lifetime Champions Health Survey: Development, Validity, and Reliability

PubMed Central

Sorenson, Shawn C.; Romano, Russell; Scholefield, Robin M.; Schroeder, E. Todd; Azen, Stanley P.; Salem, George J.

2015-01-01

Context Self-report questionnaires are an important method of evaluating lifespan health, exercise, and health-related quality of life (HRQL) outcomes among elite, competitive athletes. Few instruments, however, have undergone formal characterization of their psychometric properties within this population. Objective To evaluate the validity and reliability of a novel health and exercise questionnaire, the Trojan Lifetime Champions (TLC) Health Survey. Design Descriptive laboratory study. Setting A large National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I university. Patients or Other Participants A total of 63 university alumni (age range, 24 to 84 years), including former varsity collegiate athletes and a control group of nonathletes. Intervention(s) Participants completed the TLC Health Survey twice at a mean interval of 23 days with randomization to the paper or electronic version of the instrument. Main Outcome Measure(s) Content validity, feasibility of administration, test-retest reliability, parallel-form reliability between paper and electronic forms, and estimates of systematic and typical error versus differences of clinical interest were assessed across a broad range of health, exercise, and HRQL measures. Results Correlation coefficients, including intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for continuous variables and κ agreement statistics for ordinal variables, for test-retest reliability averaged 0.86, 0.90, 0.80, and 0.74 for HRQL, lifetime health, recent health, and exercise variables, respectively. Correlation coefficients, again ICCs and κ, for parallel-form reliability (ie, equivalence) between paper and electronic versions averaged 0.90, 0.85, 0.85, and 0.81 for HRQL, lifetime health, recent health, and exercise variables, respectively. Typical measurement error was less than the a priori thresholds of clinical interest, and we found minimal evidence of systematic test-retest error. We found strong evidence of content validity, convergent construct validity with the Short-Form 12 Version 2 HRQL instrument, and feasibility of administration in an elite, competitive athletic population. Conclusions These data suggest that the TLC Health Survey is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing lifetime and recent health, exercise, and HRQL, among elite competitive athletes. Generalizability of the instrument may be enhanced by additional, larger-scale studies in diverse populations. PMID:25611315

Breast Cancer Screening for Women at Average Risk: 2015 Guideline Update From the American Cancer Society.

PubMed

Oeffinger, Kevin C; Fontham, Elizabeth T H; Etzioni, Ruth; Herzig, Abbe; Michaelson, James S; Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Walter, Louise C; Church, Timothy R; Flowers, Christopher R; LaMonte, Samuel J; Wolf, Andrew M D; DeSantis, Carol; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Andrews, Kimberly; Manassaram-Baptiste, Deana; Saslow, Debbie; Smith, Robert A; Brawley, Otis W; Wender, Richard

2015-10-20

Breast cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality among US women. Early detection has been shown to be associated with reduced breast cancer morbidity and mortality. To update the American Cancer Society (ACS) 2003 breast cancer screening guideline for women at average risk for breast cancer. The ACS commissioned a systematic evidence review of the breast cancer screening literature to inform the update and a supplemental analysis of mammography registry data to address questions related to the screening interval. Formulation of recommendations was based on the quality of the evidence and judgment (incorporating values and preferences) about the balance of benefits and harms. Screening mammography in women aged 40 to 69 years is associated with a reduction in breast cancer deaths across a range of study designs, and inferential evidence supports breast cancer screening for women 70 years and older who are in good health. Estimates of the cumulative lifetime risk of false-positive examination results are greater if screening begins at younger ages because of the greater number of mammograms, as well as the higher recall rate in younger women. The quality of the evidence for overdiagnosis is not sufficient to estimate a lifetime risk with confidence. Analysis examining the screening interval demonstrates more favorable tumor characteristics when premenopausal women are screened annually vs biennially. Evidence does not support routine clinical breast examination as a screening method for women at average risk. The ACS recommends that women with an average risk of breast cancer should undergo regular screening mammography starting at age 45 years (strong recommendation). Women aged 45 to 54 years should be screened annually (qualified recommendation). Women 55 years and older should transition to biennial screening or have the opportunity to continue screening annually (qualified recommendation). Women should have the opportunity to begin annual screening between the ages of 40 and 44 years (qualified recommendation). Women should continue screening mammography as long as their overall health is good and they have a life expectancy of 10 years or longer (qualified recommendation). The ACS does not recommend clinical breast examination for breast cancer screening among average-risk women at any age (qualified recommendation). These updated ACS guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations for breast cancer screening for women at average risk of breast cancer. These recommendations should be considered by physicians and women in discussions about breast cancer screening.

Epidemiological, demographic, and economic analyses: measurement of the value of trichiasis surgery in The Gambia.

PubMed

Frick, K D; Keuffel, E L; Bowman, R J

2001-07-01

Untreated trichiasis can lead to corneal opacity. Surgery to prevent the eyelashes from rubbing against the cornea is available, but many individuals with trichiasis never undergo the operation. This study estimates the cost of illness of untreated trichiasis and the willingness to pay for surgery and compares them with the actual cost of providing surgery. The cost of illness estimate is based on trichiasis patient demographics. Data on the implicit price of obtaining surgery and surgical utilization in a matched pair randomized trial are used to infer individual willingness to pay for trichiasis surgery. Patients in the study paid nothing out-of-pocket for surgery; the price of obtaining surgery is the value of the individual's time needed for travel and surgery plus the price of public transportation. The cost of producing surgery was calculated from project records. All monetary figures are reported in 1998 US dollars. The average cost of untreated trichiasis, or the net present value of life-time lost economic productivity, was $89. Individuals facing a lower cost were more likely to undergo an operation; the inferred average willingness to pay was $1.43 (SD 0.244). Surgery cost $6.13 to provide, including $0.86 for transportation to the village. Whether the value of trichiasis surgery exceeds the cost in The Gambia depends on how the value is measured. Individuals are willing to use only limited resources to obtain surgery even though lifetime economic productivity may increase substantially. All three economic measures can be used to inform policy.

Estimates of lifetime infertility from three states: the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

PubMed

Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M

2015-07-01

Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Male and female adult residents aged 18-50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non-assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals.

Estimates of Lifetime Infertility from Three States: The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J.; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M.

2016-01-01

Background Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Methods Male and female adult residents aged 18–50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. Results The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non–assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). Conclusion State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals. PMID:26172998

Radionuclide concentrations in soil and lifetime cancer risk due to gamma radioactivity in Kirklareli, Turkey.

PubMed

Taskin, H; Karavus, M; Ay, P; Topuzoglu, A; Hidiroglu, S; Karahan, G

2009-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate and map soil radionuclides' activity concentrations and environmental outdoor gamma dose rates (terrestrial and cosmic) in Kirklareli, Turkey. The excess lifetime cancer risks are also calculated. Outdoor gamma dose rates were determined in 230 sampling stations and soil samples were taken from 177 locations. The coordinates of the readings were determined by the Global Positioning System (GPS). The outdoor gamma dose rates were determined by Eberline smart portable device (ESP-2) and measurements were taken in air for two minutes at 1m from the ground. The average outdoor gamma dose rate was 118+/-34nGyh(-1). Annual effective gamma dose of Kirklareli was 144microSv and the excess lifetime cancer risk of 5.0x10(-4). Soil samples were analyzed by gamma spectroscopy. The average 226Ra, 238U, 232Th, 137Cs, and 40K activities were 37+/-18Bqkg(-1), 28+/-13Bqkg(-1), 40+/-18Bqkg(-1), 8+/-5Bqkg(-1) and 667+/-281Bqkg(-1), respectively. The average soil radionuclides' concentrations of Kirklareli were within the worldwide range although some extreme values had been determined. Annual effective gamma doses and the excess lifetime risks of cancer were higher than the world's average.

Correlation Between Optoelectronic and Positron Lifetime Properties in As-received and Plasma-treated ZnO Nanopowders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, R. M.; Paramo, J. A.; Quarles, C. A.; Strzhemechny, Y. M.

2009-03-01

We employed photoluminescence and positron lifetime measurements on a number of commercially available ZnO nanopowders. The experiments were performed before and after processing of these samples in remote N and O/He plasma. In all the nanopowders, the average lifetime component is substantially longer than in a single-crystalline sample, consistent with the model of grains with defect-rich surface and subsurface layers. However, the sample-to-sample differences in the quality of the powders, as detected by the photoluminescence spectroscopy, obscure observation of possible size effects. Compression of the powders into pellets yields reductions of the average positron lifetimes. Plasma-induced modifications are most visible in the low-temperature photoluminescence spectra of the smallest nanocrystals, indicative of a surface-specific nature of the chosen treatment procedure.

Perimeter Governed Minority Carrier Lifetimes in 4H-SiC p(+)-n Diodes Measured by Reverse Recovery Switching Transient Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neudeck, Philip G.

1998-01-01

Minority carrier lifetimes in epitaxial 4H-SiC p(+)-n junction diodes were measured via an analysis of reverse recovery switching characteristics. Behavior of reverse recovery storage time (t(s)) as a function of initial ON-state forward current (I(F)) and OFF-state reverse current (I(R)) followed well-documented trends which have been observed for decades in silicon p-n rectifiers. Average minority carrier (hole) lifetimes (tau(p)) calculated from plots of t(s) vs I(R)/I(F) strongly decreased with decreasing device area. Bulk and perimeter components of average hole lifetimes were separated by plotting 1/tau(p) as a function of device perimeter-to- area ratio (P/A). This plot reveals that perimeter recombination is dominant in these devices, whose areas are all less than 1 sq mm. The bulk minority carrier (hole) lifetime extracted from the 1/tau(p) vs P/A plot is approximately 0.7 micro-s, well above the 60 ns to 300 ns average iit'eptimes obtained when perimeter recombination effects are ignored in the analysis. Given the fact that there has been little previous investigation of bipolar diode and transistor performance as a function of perimeter-to-area ratio, this work raises the possibility that perimeter recombination may be partly responsible for poor effective minority carrier lifetimes and limited performance obtained in many previous SiC bipolar junction devices.

Top-down NOX Emissions of European Cities Derived from Modelled and Spaceborne Tropospheric NO2 Columns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstraeten, W. W.; Boersma, K. F.; Douros, J.; Williams, J. E.; Eskes, H.; Delcloo, A. W.

2017-12-01

High nitrogen oxides (NOX = NO + NO2) concentrations near the surface impact humans and ecosystems badly and play a key role in tropospheric chemistry. NO2 is an important precursor of tropospheric ozone (O3) which in turn affects the production of the hydroxyl radical controlling the chemical lifetime of key atmospheric pollutants and reactive greenhouse gases. Combustion from industrial, traffic and household activities in large and densely populated urban areas result in high NOX emissions. Accurate mapping of these emissions is essential but hard to do since reported emissions factors may differ from real-time emissions in order of magnitude. Modelled NO2 levels and lifetimes also have large associated uncertainties and overestimation in the chemical lifetime which may mask missing NOX chemistry in current chemistry transport models (CTM's). The simultaneously estimation of both the NO2 lifetime and as well as the concentrations by applying the Exponentially Modified Gaussian (EMG) method on tropospheric NO2 columns lines densities should improve the surface NOX emission estimates. Here we evaluate if the EMG methodology applied on the tropospheric NO2 columns simulated by the LOTOS-EUROS (Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Ozone Simulation) CTM can reproduce the NOX emissions used as model input. First we process both the modelled tropospheric NO2 columns for the period April-September 2013 for 21 selected European urban areas under windy conditions (averaged vertical wind speeds between surface and 500 m from ECMWF > 2 m s-1) as well as the accompanying OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) data providing us with real-time observation-based estimates of midday NO2 columns. Then we compare the top-down derived surface NOX emissions with the 2011 MACC-III emission inventory, used in the CTM as input to simulate the NO2 columns. For cities where NOX emissions can be assumed as originating from one large source good agreement is found between the top-down derived NOX emissions from CTM and OMI with the MACC-III inventory. For cities where multiple sources of NOX are observed (e.g. Brussels, London), an adapted methodology is required. For some cities such as St-Petersburg and Moscow the top-down NOX estimates from 2013 OMI data are biased low compared to the MACC-III inventory which uses a 2011 NOX emissions update.

Rainflow Algorithm-Based Lifetime Estimation of Power Semiconductors in Utility Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

GopiReddy, Lakshmi Reddy; Tolbert, Leon M.; Ozpineci, Burak

Rainflow algorithms are one of the popular counting methods used in fatigue and failure analysis in conjunction with semiconductor lifetime estimation models. However, the rain-flow algorithm used in power semiconductor reliability does not consider the time-dependent mean temperature calculation. The equivalent temperature calculation proposed by Nagode et al. is applied to semiconductor lifetime estimation in this paper. A month-long arc furnace load profile is used as a test profile to estimate temperatures in insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) in a STATCOM for reactive compensation of load. In conclusion, the degradation in the life of the IGBT power device is predicted basedmore » on time-dependent temperature calculation.« less

Rainflow Algorithm-Based Lifetime Estimation of Power Semiconductors in Utility Applications

DOE PAGES

GopiReddy, Lakshmi Reddy; Tolbert, Leon M.; Ozpineci, Burak; ...

2015-07-15

Rainflow algorithms are one of the popular counting methods used in fatigue and failure analysis in conjunction with semiconductor lifetime estimation models. However, the rain-flow algorithm used in power semiconductor reliability does not consider the time-dependent mean temperature calculation. The equivalent temperature calculation proposed by Nagode et al. is applied to semiconductor lifetime estimation in this paper. A month-long arc furnace load profile is used as a test profile to estimate temperatures in insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) in a STATCOM for reactive compensation of load. In conclusion, the degradation in the life of the IGBT power device is predicted basedmore » on time-dependent temperature calculation.« less

Radiation dose rates now and in the future for residents neighboring restricted areas of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

PubMed Central

Harada, Kouji H.; Niisoe, Tamon; Imanaka, Mie; Takahashi, Tomoyuki; Amako, Katsumi; Fujii, Yukiko; Kanameishi, Masatoshi; Ohse, Kenji; Nakai, Yasumichi; Nishikawa, Tamami; Saito, Yuuichi; Sakamoto, Hiroko; Ueyama, Keiko; Hisaki, Kumiko; Ohara, Eiji; Inoue, Tokiko; Yamamoto, Kanako; Matsuoka, Yukiyo; Ohata, Hitomi; Toshima, Kazue; Okada, Ayumi; Sato, Hitomi; Kuwamori, Toyomi; Tani, Hiroko; Suzuki, Reiko; Kashikura, Mai; Nezu, Michiko; Miyachi, Yoko; Arai, Fusako; Kuwamori, Masanori; Harada, Sumiko; Ohmori, Akira; Ishikawa, Hirohiko; Koizumi, Akio

2014-01-01

Radiation dose rates were evaluated in three areas neighboring a restricted area within a 20- to 50-km radius of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in August–September 2012 and projected to 2022 and 2062. Study participants wore personal dosimeters measuring external dose equivalents, almost entirely from deposited radionuclides (groundshine). External dose rate equivalents owing to the accident averaged 1.03, 2.75, and 1.66 mSv/y in the village of Kawauchi, the Tamano area of Soma, and the Haramachi area of Minamisoma, respectively. Internal dose rates estimated from dietary intake of radiocesium averaged 0.0058, 0.019, and 0.0088 mSv/y in Kawauchi, Tamano, and Haramachi, respectively. Dose rates from inhalation of resuspended radiocesium were lower than 0.001 mSv/y. In 2012, the average annual doses from radiocesium were close to the average background radiation exposure (2 mSv/y) in Japan. Accounting only for the physical decay of radiocesium, mean annual dose rates in 2022 were estimated as 0.31, 0.87, and 0.53 mSv/y in Kawauchi, Tamano, and Haramachi, respectively. The simple and conservative estimates are comparable with variations in the background dose, and unlikely to exceed the ordinary permissible dose rate (1 mSv/y) for the majority of the Fukushima population. Health risk assessment indicates that post-2012 doses will increase lifetime solid cancer, leukemia, and breast cancer incidences by 1.06%, 0.03% and 0.28% respectively, in Tamano. This assessment was derived from short-term observation with uncertainties and did not evaluate the first-year dose and radioiodine exposure. Nevertheless, this estimate provides perspective on the long-term radiation exposure levels in the three regions. PMID:24567380

Lifetime Risk of Symptomatic Hand Osteoarthritis: The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project

PubMed Central

Qin, Jin; Barbour, Kamil E.; Murphy, Louise B.; Nelson, Amanda E.; Schwartz, Todd A.; Helmick, Charles G.; Allen, Kelli D.; Renner, Jordan B.; Baker, Nancy A; Jordan, Joanne M.

2017-01-01

Objective Symptomatic hand osteoarthritis (SHOA) is a common condition that affects hand strength and function, and causes disability in activities of daily living. Prior studies have estimated lifetime risk for symptomatic knee and hip osteoarthritis to be 45% and 25% respectively. The objective of this study is to estimate overall lifetime risk for SHOA and stratified lifetime risk by potential risk factors. Methods We analyzed data for 2,218 adults ≥ 45 years in the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, a population-based prospective cohort study in residents of Johnston County, North Carolina. Data were collected in two cycles (1999–2004 and 2005–2010). SHOA was defined as having both self-reported symptoms and radiographic OA in the same hand. Lifetime risk, defined as the proportion of the population who will develop SHOA in at least one hand by age 85, was estimated from models using generalized estimating equations methodology. Results Overall, the lifetime risk of SHOA is 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 34.4, 45.3). Nearly one in two women (47.2%; 95% CI: 40.6, 53.9) will develop SHOA by age 85 compared with one in four men (24.6%; 95% CI: 19.5, 30.5). Race-specific estimates are 41.4% (95% CI: 35.5, 47.6) among whites and 29.2% (95% CI: 20.5, 39.7) among blacks. Lifetime risk among individuals with obesity (47.1%, 95% CI: 37.8, 56.7) is 11 percentage point higher than those without obesity (36.1%, 95% CI: 29.7, 42.9). Conclusion These findings demonstrate the substantial burden of SHOA overall and in subgroups. Increased use of public health and clinical interventions is needed to address its impact. PMID:28470947

The association of pattern of lifetime alcohol use and cause of death in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study.

PubMed

Bergmann, Manuela M; Rehm, Jürgen; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin; Boeing, Heiner; Schütze, Madlen; Drogan, Dagmar; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjær, Jytte; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Teucher, Birgit; Kaaks, Rudolph; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Benetou, Vassiliki; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Palli, Domenico; Pala, Valeria; Tumino, Rosario; Vineis, Paolo; Beulens, Joline Wj; Redondo, Maria Luisa; Duell, Eric J; Molina-Montes, Esther; Navarro, Carmen; Barricarte, Aurelio; Arriola, Larraitz; Allen, Naomi E; Crowe, Francesca L; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Romaguera, Dora; Wark, Petra A; Romieu, Isabelle; Nunes, Luciana; Riboli, Elio; Ferrari, Pietro

2013-12-01

There is limited evidence for an association between the pattern of lifetime alcohol use and cause-specific risk of death. Multivariable hazard ratios were estimated for different causes of death according to patterns of lifetime alcohol consumption using a competing risks approach: 111 953 men and 268 442 women from eight countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study were included. Self-reported alcohol consumption at ages 20, 30, 40 or 50 years and at enrollment were used for the analysis; 26 411 deaths were observed during an average of 12.6 years of follow-up. The association between lifetime alcohol use and death from cardiovascular diseases was different from the association seen for alcohol-related cancers, digestive, respiratory, external and other causes. Heavy users (>5 drinks/day for men and >2.5 drinks/day for women), regardless of time of cessation, had a 2- to 5-times higher risk of dying due to alcohol-related cancers, compared with subjects with lifetime light use (≤1 and ≤0.5 drink/week for men and women, respectively). Compared with lifetime light users, men who used <5 drinks/day throughout their lifetime had a 24% lower cardiovascular disease mortality (95% confidence interval 2-41). The risk of death from coronary heart disease was also found to be 34-46% lower among women who were moderate to occasionally heavy alcohol users compared with light users. However, this relationship was only evident among men and women who had no chronic disease at enrollment. Limiting alcohol use throughout life is associated with a lower risk of death, largely due to cardiovascular disease but also other causes. However, the potential health benefits of alcohol use are difficult to establish due to the possibility of selection bias and competing risks related to diseases occurring later in life.

The association of pattern of lifetime alcohol use and cause of death in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

PubMed Central

Bergmann, Manuela M; Rehm, Jürgen; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin; Boeing, Heiner; Schütze, Madlen; Drogan, Dagmar; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjær, Jytte; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Teucher, Birgit; Kaaks, Rudolph; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Benetou, Vassiliki; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Palli, Domenico; Pala, Valeria; Tumino, Rosario; Vineis, Paolo; Beulens, Joline WJ; Redondo, Maria Luisa; Duell, Eric J; Molina-Montes, Esther; Navarro, Carmen; Barricarte, Aurelio; Arriola, Larraitz; Allen, Naomi E; Crowe, Francesca L; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Romaguera, Dora; Wark, Petra A; Romieu, Isabelle; Nunes, Luciana; Riboli, Elio; Ferrari, Pietro

2013-01-01

Background There is limited evidence for an association between the pattern of lifetime alcohol use and cause-specific risk of death. Methods Multivariable hazard ratios were estimated for different causes of death according to patterns of lifetime alcohol consumption using a competing risks approach: 111 953 men and 268 442 women from eight countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study were included. Self-reported alcohol consumption at ages 20, 30, 40 or 50 years and at enrolment were used for the analysis; 26 411 deaths were observed during an average of 12.6 years of follow-up. Results The association between lifetime alcohol use and death from cardiovascular diseases was different from the association seen for alcohol-related cancers, digestive, respiratory, external and other causes. Heavy users (>5 drinks/day for men and >2.5 drinks/day for women), regardless of time of cessation, had a 2- to 5-times higher risk of dying due to alcohol-related cancers, compared with subjects with lifetime light use (≤1 and ≤0.5 drink/week for men and women, respectively). Compared with lifetime light users, men who used <5 drinks/day throughout their lifetime had a 24% lower cardiovascular disease mortality (95% confidence interval 2-41). The risk of death from coronary heart disease was also found to be 34–46% lower among women who were moderate to occasionally heavy alcohol users compared with light users. However, this relationship was only evident among men and women who had no chronic disease at enrolment. Conclusions Limiting alcohol use throughout life is associated with a lower risk of death, largely due to cardiovascular disease but also other causes. However, the potential health benefits of alcohol use are difficult to establish due to the possibility of selection bias and competing risks related to diseases occurring later in life. PMID:24415611

Assessing the photoaging process at sun exposed and non-exposed skin using fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito Nogueira, Marcelo; Kurachi, Cristina

2016-03-01

Photoaging is the skin premature aging due to exposure to ultraviolet light, which damage the collagen, elastin and can induce alterations on the skin cells DNA, and, then, it may evolve to precancerous lesions, which are widely investigated by fluorescence spectroscopy and lifetime. The fluorescence spectra and fluorescence lifetime analysis has been presented as a technique of great potential for biological tissue characterization at optical diagnostics. The main targeted fluorophores are NADH (nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide) and FAD (flavin adenine dinucleotide), which have free and bound states, each one with different average lifetimes. The average lifetimes for free and bound NADH and FAD change according to tissue metabolic alterations and may contribute to a non-invasive clinical investigation of injuries such as skin lesions. These lesions and the possible areas where they may develop can be interrogated using fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy taking into account the variability of skin phototypes and the changes related to melanin, collagen and elastin, endogenous fluorophores which have emissions that spectrally overlap to the NADH and FAD emission. The objective of this study is to assess the variation on fluorescence lifetimes of normal skin at sun exposed and non-exposed areas and associate this variation to the photoaging process.

Shifts in the fluorescence lifetime of EGFP during bacterial phagocytosis measured by phase-sensitive flow cytometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenyan; Houston, Kevin D.; Houston, Jessica P.

2017-01-01

Phase-sensitive flow cytometry (PSFC) is a technique in which fluorescence excited state decay times are measured as fluorescently labeled cells rapidly transit a finely focused, frequency-modulated laser beam. With PSFC the fluorescence lifetime is taken as a cytometric parameter to differentiate intracellular events that are challenging to distinguish with standard flow cytometry. For example PSFC can report changes in protein conformation, expression, interactions, and movement, as well as differences in intracellular microenvironments. This contribution focuses on the latter case by taking PSFC measurements of macrophage cells when inoculated with enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP)-expressing E. coli. During progressive internalization of EGFP-E. coli, fluorescence lifetimes were acquired and compared to control groups. It was hypothesized that fluorescence lifetimes would correlate well with phagocytosis because phagosomes become acidified and the average fluorescence lifetime of EGFP is known to be affected by pH. We confirmed that average EGFP lifetimes consistently decreased (3 to 2 ns) with inoculation time. The broad significance of this work is the demonstration of how high-throughput fluorescence lifetime measurements correlate well to changes that are not easily tracked by intensity-only cytometry, which is affected by heterogeneous protein expression, cell-to-cell differences in phagosome formation, and number of bacterium engulfed.

Silicosis among gold miners: exposure--response analyses and risk assessment.

PubMed

Steenland, K; Brown, D

1995-10-01

This study sought to estimate the risk of silicosis by cumulative exposure-years in a cohort of miners exposed to silica, as well as the lifetime risk of silicosis under the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standard (0.09 mg/m3). In a cohort study of 3330 gold miners who worked at least 1 year underground from 1940 to 1965 (average 9 years) and were exposed to a median silica level of 0.05 mg/m3 (0.15 mg/m3 for those hired before 1930), 170 cases of silicosis were determined from either death certificates or two cross-sectional radiographic surveys. The risk of silicosis was less than 1% with a cumulative exposure under 0.5 mg/m3-years, increasing to 68% to 84% for the highest cumulative exposure category of more than 4 mg/m3-years. Cumulative exposure was the best predictor of disease, followed by duration of exposure and average exposure. After adjustment for competing risks of death, a 45-year exposure under the current OSHA standard would lead to a lifetime risk of silicosis of 35% to 47%. Almost 2 million US workers are currently exposed to silica. Our results add to a small but increasing body of literature that suggests that the current OSHA silica exposure level is unacceptably high.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Total Hip Arthroplasty Performed by a Canadian Short-Stay Surgical Team in Ecuador.

PubMed

Schlegelmilch, Michael; Rashiq, Saifee; Moreau, Barbara; Jarrín, Patricia; Tran, Bach; Chuck, Anderson

2017-01-01

Few charitable overseas surgical missions produce cost-effectiveness analyses of their work. We compared the pre- and postoperative health status for 157 total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients operated on from 2007 to 2011 attended by an annual Canadian orthopedic mission to Ecuador to determine the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The costs of each mission are known. The cost per surgery was divided by the average lifetime QALYs gained to estimate an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in Canadian dollars per QALY. The average lifetime QALYs (95% CI) gained were 1.46 (1.4-1.5), 2.5 (2.4-2.6), and 2.9 (2.7-3.1) for unilateral, bilateral, and staged (two THAs in different years) operations, respectively. The ICERs were $4,442 for unilateral, $2,939 for bilateral, and $4392 for staged procedures. Seventy percent of the mission budget was spent on the transport and accommodation of volunteers. THA by a Canadian short-stay surgical team was highly cost-effective, according to criteria from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and the World Health Organization. We encourage other international missions to provide similar cost-effectiveness data to enable better comparison between mission types and between mission and nonmission care.

Performance summary on a high power dense plasma focus x-ray lithography point source producing 70 nm line features in AlGaAs microcircuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petr, Rodney; Bykanov, Alexander; Freshman, Jay; Reilly, Dennis; Mangano, Joseph; Roche, Maureen; Dickenson, Jason; Burte, Mitchell; Heaton, John

2004-08-01

A high average power dense plasma focus (DPF), x-ray point source has been used to produce ˜70 nm line features in AlGaAs-based monolithic millimeter-wave integrated circuits (MMICs). The DPF source has produced up to 12 J per pulse of x-ray energy into 4π steradians at ˜1 keV effective wavelength in ˜2 Torr neon at pulse repetition rates up to 60 Hz, with an effective x-ray yield efficiency of ˜0.8%. Plasma temperature and electron concentration are estimated from the x-ray spectrum to be ˜170 eV and ˜5.1019 cm-3, respectively. The x-ray point source utilizes solid-state pulse power technology to extend the operating lifetime of electrodes and insulators in the DPF discharge. By eliminating current reversals in the DPF head, an anode electrode has demonstrated a lifetime of more than 5 million shots. The x-ray point source has also been operated continuously for 8 h run times at 27 Hz average pulse recurrent frequency. Measurements of shock waves produced by the plasma discharge indicate that overpressure pulses must be attenuated before a collimator can be integrated with the DPF point source.

Analysis of positron lifetime spectra in polymers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Jag J.; Mall, Gerald H.; Sprinkle, Danny R.

1988-01-01

A new procedure for analyzing multicomponent positron lifetime spectra in polymers was developed. It requires initial estimates of the lifetimes and the intensities of various components, which are readily obtainable by a standard spectrum stripping process. These initial estimates, after convolution with the timing system resolution function, are then used as the inputs for a nonlinear least squares analysis to compute the estimates that conform to a global error minimization criterion. The convolution integral uses the full experimental resolution function, in contrast to the previous studies where analytical approximations of it were utilized. These concepts were incorporated into a generalized Computer Program for Analyzing Positron Lifetime Spectra (PAPLS) in polymers. Its validity was tested using several artificially generated data sets. These data sets were also analyzed using the widely used POSITRONFIT program. In almost all cases, the PAPLS program gives closer fit to the input values. The new procedure was applied to the analysis of several lifetime spectra measured in metal ion containing Epon-828 samples. The results are described.

Usefulness of cancer-free survival in estimating the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence from radiation exposure.

PubMed

Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dal Nim; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Won Jin; Park, Sunhoo

2018-05-11

Risk projection models estimating the lifetime cancer risk from radiation exposure are generally based on exposure dose, age at exposure, attained age, gender and study-population-specific factors such as baseline cancer risks and survival rates. Because such models have mostly been based on the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, the baseline risks and survival rates in the target population should be considered when applying the cancer risk. The survival function used in the risk projection models that are commonly used in the radiological protection field to estimate the cancer risk from medical or occupational exposure is based on all-cause mortality. Thus, it may not be accurate for estimating the lifetime risk of high-incidence but not life-threatening cancer with a long-term survival rate. Herein, we present the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) estimates of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, thyroid cancer, and leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia in South Korea for lifetime exposure to 1 mGy per year using the cancer-free survival function, as recently applied in the Fukushima health risk assessment by the World Health Organization. Compared with the estimates of LARs using an overall survival function solely based on all-cause mortality, the LARs of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer evaluated using the cancer-free survival function, decreased by approximately 13% and 1% for men and 9% and 5% for women, respectively. The LAR of leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia barely changed for either gender owing to the small absolute difference between its incidence and mortality. Given that many cancers have a high curative rate and low mortality rate, using a survival function solely based on all-cause mortality may cause an overestimation of the lifetime risk of cancer incidence. The lifetime fractional risk was robust against the choice of survival function.

Recombination processes in quantum well lasers with superlattice barriers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blood, P.; Fletcher, E.D.; Foxon, C.T.

1989-12-04

Spontaneous emission spectra from GaAs quantum well lasers grown by molecular beam epitaxy show that the radiative recombination rate in (AlAs)(GaAs) superlattice barriers is greater than in alloy barriers of the same average composition ({ital x}=0.25) due to reduction in effective gap by superlattice effects. Measurements of emission spectra as functions of temperature show that these radiative processes account for a significant part of the temperature variation of the threshold current and we estimate that the nonradiative lifetime in the superlattice barriers is an order of magnitude longer than in alloy barriers grown under similar conditions.

Life-time risk of mortality due to different levels of alcohol consumption in seven European countries: implications for low-risk drinking guidelines.

PubMed

Shield, Kevin D; Gmel, Gerrit; Gmel, Gerhard; Mäkelä, Pia; Probst, Charlotte; Room, Robin; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-09-01

Low-risk alcohol drinking guidelines require a scientific basis that extends beyond individual or group judgements of risk. Life-time mortality risks, judged against established thresholds for acceptable risk, may provide such a basis for guidelines. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate alcohol mortality risks for seven European countries based on different average daily alcohol consumption amounts. The maximum acceptable voluntary premature mortality risk was determined to be one in 1000, with sensitivity analyses of one in 100. Life-time mortality risks for different alcohol consumption levels were estimated by combining disease-specific relative risk and mortality data for seven European countries with different drinking patterns (Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy and Poland). Alcohol consumption data were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, relative risk data from meta-analyses and mortality information from the World Health Organization. The variation in the life-time mortality risk at drinking levels relevant for setting guidelines was less than that observed at high drinking levels. In Europe, the percentage of adults consuming above a risk threshold of one in 1000 ranged from 20.6 to 32.9% for women and from 35.4 to 54.0% for men. Life-time risk of premature mortality under current guideline maximums ranged from 2.5 to 44.8 deaths per 1000 women in Finland and Estonia, respectively, and from 2.9 to 35.8 deaths per 1000 men in Finland and Estonia, respectively. If based upon an acceptable risk of one in 1000, guideline maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men. If low-risk alcohol guidelines were based on an acceptable risk of one in 1000 premature deaths, then maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men, and some of the current European guidelines would require downward revision. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Temporal and spatial binning of TCSPC data to improve signal-to-noise ratio and imaging speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Alex J.; Beier, Hope T.

2016-03-01

Time-correlated single photon counting (TCSPC) is the most robust method for fluorescence lifetime imaging using laser scanning microscopes. However, TCSPC is inherently slow making it ineffective to capture rapid events due to the single photon product per laser pulse causing extensive acquisition time limitations and the requirement of low fluorescence emission efficiency to avoid bias of measurement towards short lifetimes. Furthermore, thousands of photons per pixel are required for traditional instrument response deconvolution and fluorescence lifetime exponential decay estimation. Instrument response deconvolution and fluorescence exponential decay estimation can be performed in several ways including iterative least squares minimization and Laguerre deconvolution. This paper compares the limitations and accuracy of these fluorescence decay analysis techniques to accurately estimate double exponential decays across many data characteristics including various lifetime values, lifetime component weights, signal-to-noise ratios, and number of photons detected. Furthermore, techniques to improve data fitting, including binning data temporally and spatially, are evaluated as methods to improve decay fits and reduce image acquisition time. Simulation results demonstrate that binning temporally to 36 or 42 time bins, improves accuracy of fits for low photon count data. Such a technique reduces the required number of photons for accurate component estimation if lifetime values are known, such as for commercial fluorescent dyes and FRET experiments, and improve imaging speed 10-fold.

Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

2017-08-01

Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model has lower degrees of freedom. Both approaches rely on previously developed lifetime models each of them corresponding to predefined SoH. Concerning first approach, model selection is aided by state-machine-based algorithm. In the second approach, model selection conditioned by tracking an exceedance of predefined thresholds is concerned. The approach is applied to data generated from tribological systems. By calculating Root Squared Error (RSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Absolute Error (ABE) the accuracy of proposed models/approaches is discussed along with related advantages and disadvantages. Verification of the approach is done using cross-fold validation, exchanging training and test data. It can be stated that the newly introduced approach based on data (denoted as data-based or data-driven) parametric models can be easily established providing detailed information about remaining useful/consumed lifetime valid for systems with constant load but stochastically occurred damage.

Solar exposure and residential geographic history in relation to exfoliation syndrome in the United States and Israel.

PubMed

Pasquale, Louis R; Jiwani, Aliya Z; Zehavi-Dorin, Tzukit; Majd, Arow; Rhee, Douglas J; Chen, Teresa; Turalba, Angela; Shen, Lucy; Brauner, Stacey; Grosskreutz, Cynthia; Gardiner, Matthew; Chen, Sherleen; Borboli-Gerogiannis, Sheila; Greenstein, Scott H; Chang, Kenneth; Ritch, Robert; Loomis, Stephanie; Kang, Jae H; Wiggs, Janey L; Levkovitch-Verbin, Hani

2014-12-01

Residential (geographic) history and extent of solar exposure may be important risk factors for exfoliation syndrome (XFS) but, to our knowledge, detailed lifetime solar exposure has not been previously evaluated in XFS. To assess the relation between residential history, solar exposure, and XFS. This clinic-based case-control study was conducted in the United States and Israel. It involved XFS cases and control individuals (all ≥ 60-year-old white individuals) enrolled from 2010 to 2012 (United States: 118 cases and 106 control participants; Israel: 67 cases and 72 control participants). Weighted lifetime average latitude of residence and average number of hours per week spent outdoors as determined by validated questionnaires. In multivariable analyses, each degree of weighted lifetime average residential latitude away from the equator was associated with 11% increased odds of XFS (pooled odds ratio [OR], 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17; P < .001). Furthermore, every hour per week spent outdoors during the summer, averaged over a lifetime, was associated with 4% increased odds of XFS (pooled OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.07; P = .03). For every 1% of average lifetime summer time between 10 am and 4 pm that sunglasses were worn, the odds of XFS decreased by 2% (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99; P < .001) in the United States but not in Israel (OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.01; P = .92; P for heterogeneity = .005). In the United States, after controlling for important environmental covariates, history of work over water or snow was associated with increased odds of XFS (OR, 3.86; 95% CI, 1.36-10.9); in Israel, there were too few people with such history for analysis. We did not identify an association between brimmed hat wear and XFS (P > .57). Lifetime outdoor activities may contribute to XFS. The association with work over snow or water and the lack of association with brimmed hat wear suggests that ocular exposure to light from reflective surfaces may be an important type of exposure in XFS etiology.

Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, L.; Hoppe, C. M.; Müller, R.; Dutton, G. S.; Gille, J. C.; Griessbach, S.; Jones, A.; Meyer, C. I.; Spang, R.; Volk, C. M.; Walker, K. A.

2014-06-01

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their global loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 111(96-132) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 112(97-133) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 112(96-135) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.47±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 112(102-123) yr. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43-67) yr and 102(88-122) yr, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95-129) yr, based on a ten-year perpetual run. Closely reproducing the satellite observations, the new model system will likely become a useful tool to assess the impact of advective transport, mixing, and photochemistry as well as climatological variability on the stratospheric lifetimes of long-lived tracers.

Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, L.; Hoppe, C. M.; Müller, R.; Dutton, G. S.; Gille, J. C.; Griessbach, S.; Jones, A.; Meyer, C. I.; Spang, R.; Volk, C. M.; Walker, K. A.

2014-11-01

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 years for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96-133) years for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97-134) years for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98-136) years for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103-124) years. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43-67) years and 102(88-122) years, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95-129) years, based on a 10-year perpetual run. Closely reproducing the satellite observations, the new model system will likely become a useful tool to assess the impact of advective transport, mixing, and photochemistry as well as climatological variability on the stratospheric lifetimes of long-lived tracers.

Lifetime Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Two Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Bell, Elizabeth J; Lutsey, Pamela L; Basu, Saonli; Cushman, Mary; Heckbert, Susan R; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Folsom, Aaron R

2016-03-01

Greater public awareness of venous thromboembolism may be an important next step for optimizing venous thromboembolism prevention and treatment. "Lifetime risk" is an easily interpretable way of presenting risk information. Therefore, we sought to calculate the lifetime risk of venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) using data from 2 large, prospective cohort studies: the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We followed participants aged 45-64 years in ARIC (n = 14,185) and ≥65 in CHS (n = 5414) at baseline visits (1987-1989 in ARIC, 1989-1990 and 1992-1993 in CHS) for incident venous thromboembolism (n = 728 in ARIC through 2011 and n = 172 in CHS through 2001). We estimated lifetime risks and 95% confidence intervals of incident venous thromboembolism using a modified Kaplan-Meier method, accounting for the competing risk of death from other causes. At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk of venous thromboembolism in ARIC was 8.1% (95% confidence interval, 7.1-8.7). High-risk groups were African Americans (11.5% lifetime risk), those with obesity (10.9%), heterozygous for the factor V Leiden (17.1%), or with sickle cell trait or disease (18.2%). Lifetime risk estimates differed by cohort; these differences were explained by differences in time period of venous thromboembolism ascertainment. At least 1 in 12 middle-aged adults will develop venous thromboembolism in their remaining lifetime. This estimate of lifetime risk may be useful to promote awareness of venous thromboembolism and guide decisions at both clinical and policy levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

PubMed

Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

2014-11-01

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in the first year and continuing exposure, the lifetime radiation-related cancer risks based on lifetime dose (which are highest for children under 5 years of age at initial exposure), are small, and much smaller than the lifetime baseline cancer risks. For example, after initial exposure at age 1 year, the lifetime excess radiation risk and baseline risk of all solid cancers in females were estimated to be 0.7 · 10(-2) and 29.0 · 10(-2), respectively. The 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are very small. However, for initial exposure in childhood, the 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are up to 33 and 88% as large as the 15 year baseline risks for leukemia and thyroid cancer, respectively. The results may be scaled to particular dose estimates after consideration of caveats. One caveat is related to the lack of epidemiological evidence defining risks at low doses, because the predicted risks come from cancer risk models fitted to a wide dose range (0-4 Gy), which assume that the solid cancer and leukemia lifetime risks for doses less than about 0.5 Gy and 0.2 Gy, respectively, are proportional to organ/tissue doses: this is unlikely to seriously underestimate risks, but may overestimate risks. This WHO-HRA framework may be used to update the risk estimates, when new population health statistics data, dosimetry information and radiation risk models become available.

Use of chromium picolinate and biotin in the management of type 2 diabetes: an economic analysis.

PubMed

Fuhr, Joseph P; He, Hope; Goldfarb, Neil; Nash, David B

2005-08-01

This paper addresses the potential economic benefits of chromium picolinate plus biotin (Diachrome) use in people with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The economic model was developed to estimate the impact on health care systems' costs by improved HbA1C levels with chromium picolinate plus biotin (Diachrome). Lifetimes cost savings were estimated by adjusting a benchmark from the literature, using a price index to adjust for inflation. The cost of diabetes is highly dependent on the HbA1C level with higher initial levels and higher annual increments increasing the cost. Improvement in glycemic control has proven to be cost-effective in delaying the onset and progression of T2DM, reducing the risk for diabetes-associated complications and lowering utilization and cost of care. Chromium picolinate plus biotin (Diachrome) showed greater improvement of glycemic control in poorly controlled T2DM patients (HbA(1C) > or = 10%) compared to their better controlled counterparts (HbA(1C) < 10%). This improvement was additive to that achieved by oral hypoglycemic medications and correlates to calculated levels of cost savings. Average 3-year cost savings for chromium picolinate plus biotin (Diachrome) use could range from 1,636 dollars for a poorly controlled patient with diabetes without heart diseases or hypertension, to 5,435 dollars for a poorly controlled patient with diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension. Average 3-year cost savings was estimated to be between 3.9 billion dollars and 52.9 billion dollars for the 16.3 million existing patients with diabetes. Chromium picolinate plus biotin (Diachrome) use among the 1.17 million newly diagnosed patients with T2DM each year could deliver lifetime cost savings of 42 billion dollars, or 36,000 dollars per T2DM patient. Affordable, safe, and convenient, chromium picolinate plus biotin (Diachrome) could prove to be a cost-effective complement to existing pharmacological therapies for controlling T2DM.

The Correlation Between Dislocations and Vacancy Defects Using Positron Annihilation Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Jinbiao; Li, Hui; Zhou, Kai; Wang, Zhu

2012-07-01

An analysis program for positron annihilation lifetime spectra is only applicable to isolated defects, but is of no use in the presence of defective correlations. Such limitations have long caused problems for positron researchers in their studies of complicated defective systems. In order to solve this problem, we aim to take a semiconductor material, for example, to achieve a credible average lifetime of single crystal silicon under plastic deformation at different temperatures using positron life time spectroscopy. By establishing reasonable positron trapping models with defective correlations and sorting out four lifetime components with multiple parameters, as well as their respective intensities, information is obtained on the positron trapping centers, such as the positron trapping rates of defects, the density of the dislocation lines and correlation between the dislocation lines, and the vacancy defects, by fitting with the average lifetime with the aid of Matlab software. These results give strong grounds for the existence of dislocation-vacancy correlation in plastically deformed silicon, and lay a theoretical foundation for the analysis of positron lifetime spectra when the positron trapping model involves dislocation-related defects.

Expanding the potential of standard flow cytometry by extracting fluorescence lifetimes from cytometric pulse shifts

PubMed Central

Cao, Ruofan; Naivar, Mark A; Wilder, Mark; Houston, Jessica P

2014-01-01

Fluorescence lifetime measurements provide information about the fluorescence relaxation, or intensity decay, of organic fluorophores, fluorescent proteins, and other inorganic molecules that fluoresce. The fluorescence lifetime is emerging in flow cytometry and is helpful in a variety of multiparametric, single cell measurements because it is not impacted by nonlinearity that can occur with fluorescence intensity measurements. Yet time-resolved cytometry systems rely on major hardware modifications making the methodology difficult to reproduce. The motivation of this work is, by taking advantage of the dynamic nature of flow cytometry sample detection and applying digital signal processing methods, to measure fluorescence lifetimes using an unmodified flow cytometer. We collect a new lifetime-dependent parameter, referred to herein as the fluorescence-pulse-delay (FPD), and prove it is a valid representation of the average fluorescence lifetime. To verify we generated cytometric pulses in simulation, with light emitting diode (LED) pulsation, and with true fluorescence measurements of cells and microspheres. Each pulse is digitized and used in algorithms to extract an average fluorescence lifetime inherent in the signal. A range of fluorescence lifetimes is measurable with this approach including standard organic fluorophore lifetimes (∼1 to 22 ns) as well as small, simulated shifts (0.1 ns) under standard conditions (reported herein). This contribution demonstrates how digital data acquisition and signal processing can reveal time-dependent information foreshadowing the exploitation of full waveform analysis for quantification of similar photo-physical events within single cells. © 2014 The Authors. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25274073

Multitemporal observations of identical active dust devils on Mars with the High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) and Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiss, D.; Zanetti, M.; Neukum, G.

2011-09-01

Active dust devils were observed in Syria Planum in Mars Observer Camera - Wide Angle (MOC-WA) and High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) imagery acquired on the same day with a time delay of ˜26 min. The unique operating technique of the HRSC allowed the measurement of the traverse velocities and directions of motion. Large dust devils observed in the HRSC image could be retraced to their counterparts in the earlier acquired MOC-WA image. Minimum lifetimes of three large (avg. ˜700 m in diameter) dust devils are ˜26 min, as inferred from retracing. For one of these large dust devil (˜820 m in diameter) it was possible to calculate a minimum lifetime of ˜74 min based on the measured horizontal speed and the length of its associated dust devil track. The comparison of our minimum lifetimes with previous published results of minimum and average lifetimes of small (˜19 m in diameter, avg. min. lifetime of ˜2.83 min) and medium (˜185 m in diameter, avg. min. lifetime of ˜13 min) dust devils imply that larger dust devils on Mars are active for much longer periods of time than smaller ones, as it is the case for terrestrial dust devils. Knowledge of martian dust devil lifetimes is an important parameter for the calculation of dust lifting rates. Estimates of the contribution of large dust devils (>300-1000 m in diameter) indicate that they may contribute, at least regionally, to ˜50% of dust entrainment by dust devils into the atmosphere compared to the dust devils <300 m in diameter given that the size-frequency distribution follows a power-law. Although large dust devils occur relatively rarely and the sediment fluxes are probably lower compared to smaller dust devils, their contribution to the background dust opacity by dust devils on Mars could be at least regionally large due to their longer lifetimes and ability of dust lifting into high atmospheric layers.

Time-resolved fluorescence imaging of slab gels for lifetime base-calling in DNA sequencing applications.

PubMed

Lassiter, S J; Stryjewski, W; Legendre, B L; Erdmann, R; Wahl, M; Wurm, J; Peterson, R; Middendorf, L; Soper, S A

2000-11-01

A compact time-resolved near-IR fluorescence imager was constructed to obtain lifetime and intensity images of DNA sequencing slab gels. The scanner consisted of a microscope body with f/1.2 relay optics onto which was mounted a pulsed diode laser (repetition rate 80 MHz, lasing wavelength 680 nm, average power 5 mW), filtering optics, and a large photoactive area (diameter 500 microns) single-photon avalanche diode that was actively quenched to provide a large dynamic operating range. The time-resolved data were processed using electronics configured in a conventional time-correlated single-photon-counting format with all of the counting hardware situated on a PC card resident on the computer bus. The microscope head produced a timing response of 450 ps (fwhm) in a scanning mode, allowing the measurement of subnano-second lifetimes. The time-resolved microscope head was placed in an automated DNA sequencer and translated across a 21-cm-wide gel plate in approximately 6 s (scan rate 3.5 cm/s) with an accumulation time per pixel of 10 ms. The sampling frequency was 0.17 Hz (duty cycle 0.0017), sufficient to prevent signal aliasing during the electrophoresis separation. Software (written in Visual Basic) allowed acquisition of both the intensity image and lifetime analysis of DNA bands migrating through the gel in real time. Using a dual-labeling (IRD700 and Cy5.5 labeling dyes)/two-lane sequencing strategy, we successfully read 670 bases of a control M13mp18 ssDNA template using lifetime identification. Comparison of the reconstructed sequence with the known sequence of the phage indicated the number of miscalls was only 2, producing an error rate of approximately 0.3% (identification accuracy 99.7%). The lifetimes were calculated using maximum likelihood estimators and allowed on-line determinations with high precision, even when short integration times were used to construct the decay profiles. Comparison of the lifetime base calling to a single-dye/four-lane sequencing strategy indicated similar results in terms of miscalls, but reduced insertion and deletion errors using lifetime identification methods, improving the overall read accuracy.

Breast Cancer Screening for Women at Average Risk: 2015 Guideline Update from the American Cancer Society

PubMed Central

Oeffinger, Kevin C.; Fontham, Elizabeth T. H.; Etzioni, Ruth; Herzig, Abbe; Michaelson, James S.; Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Walter, Louise C.; Church, Timothy R.; Flowers, Christopher R.; LaMonte, Samuel J.; Wolf, Andrew M. D.; DeSantis, Carol; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Andrews, Kimberly; Manassaram-Baptiste, Deana; Saslow, Debbie; Smith, Robert A.; Brawley, Otis W.; Wender, Richard

2016-01-01

Importance Breast cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality among U.S. women. Early detection has been shown to be associated with reduced breast cancer morbidity and mortality. This report updates the American Cancer Society (ACS) 2003 breast cancer screening guideline for women at average risk for breast cancer. Process The ACS commissioned a systematic evidence review of the breast cancer screening literature to inform the update, and a supplemental analysis of mammography registry data to address questions related to the screening interval. Formulation of recommendations was based on the quality of the evidence and judgment (incorporating values and preferences) about the balance of benefits and harms. Evidence Synthesis Mammography screening in women aged 40–69 years is associated with a reduction in breast cancer deaths across a range of study designs, and inferential evidence supports breast cancer screening in women who are age 70 years and older and are in good health. Estimates of the cumulative lifetime risk of false positive exams are greater if screening begins at younger ages due to the greater number of mammograms, as well as the higher recall rate in younger women. The quality of the evidence for overdiagnosis is not sufficient to estimate a lifetime risk with confidence. Analysis examining the screening interval demonstrates more favorable tumor characteristics when premenopausal women are screened annually vs. biennially. Evidence does not support routine clinical breast examination as a screening method for average risk women. Recommendations The ACS recommends that women with an average risk of breast cancer should undergo regular screening mammography starting at age 45 years (strong recommendation). Women who are ages 45 to 54 years should be screened annually (qualified recommendation). Women who are age 55 years and older should transition to biennial screening or have the opportunity to continue screening annually (qualified recommendation). Women should have the opportunity to begin annual screening between the ages of 40 and 44 years (qualified recommendation). Women should continue screening mammography as long as their overall health is good and they have a life expectancy of 10 years or more (qualified recommendation). The ACS does not recommend clinical breast examination for breast cancer screening among average-risk women at any age (qualified recommendation). PMID:26501536

Cost Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategies: Results from The American College of Cardiology Foundation and The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategies (ASCERT)

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zugui; Kolm, Paul; Grau-Sepulveda, Maria V.; Ponirakis, Angelo; O’Brien, Sean M.; Klein, Lloyd W.; Shaw, Richard E.; McKay, Charles; Shahian, David M.; Grover, Frederick L.; Mayer, John E.; Garratt, Kirk N.; Hlatky, Mark; Edwards, Fred H.; Weintraub, William S.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND The American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategies (ASCERT) was a large observational study designed to compare the long-term effectiveness of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to treat coronary artery disease (CAD) over 4 to 5 years. OBJECTIVES We examined the cost effectiveness of CABG compared to PCI for stable ischemic heart disease. METHODS The STS and ACCF databases were linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data. Costs for the index and observation period (2004 to 2008) hospitalizations were assessed by diagnosis-related group Medicare reimbursement rates; costs beyond the observation period were estimated from average Medicare participant per capita expenditure. Effectiveness was measured via mortality and life expectancy data. Cost and effectiveness comparisons were adjusted using propensity score matching with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS CABG patients (n = 86,244) and PCI patients (n = 103,549) were at least 65-yearsold with 2 or 3-vessel CAD. Adjusted costs were higher for CABG for the index hospitalization, study period, and lifetime by $10,670, $8,145, and $11,575, respectively. Patients undergoing CABG gained an adjusted average of 0.2525 and 0.3801 life-years relative to PCI over the observation period and lifetime, respectively. The life-time ICER of CABG compared to PCI was $30,454/QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS Over a period of 4 years or longer, patients undergoing CABG had better outcomes but at higher costs than those undergoing PCI. PMID:25572503

Labor market productivity costs for caregivers of children with spina bifida: a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Tilford, John M; Grosse, Scott D; Goodman, Allen C; Li, Kemeng

2009-01-01

Caregiver productivity costs are an important component of the overall cost of care for individuals with birth defects and developmental disabilities, yet few studies provide estimates for use in economic evaluations. This study estimates labor market productivity costs for caregivers of children and adolescents with spina bifida. Case families were recruited from a state birth defects registry in Arkansas. Primary caregivers of children with spina bifida (N = 98) reported their employment status in the past year and demographic characteristics. Controls were abstracted from the Current Population Survey covering the state of Arkansas for the same time period (N = 416). Estimates from regression analyses of labor market outcomes were used to calculate differences in hours worked per week and lifetime costs. Caregivers of children with spina bifida worked an annual average of 7.5 to 11.3 hours less per week depending on the disability severity. Differences in work hours by caregivers of children with spina bifida translated into lifetime costs of $133,755 in 2002 dollars using a 3% discount rate and an age- and sex-adjusted earnings profile. Including caregivers' labor market productivity costs in prevention effectiveness estimates raises the net cost savings per averted case of spina bifida by 48% over the medical care costs alone. Information on labor market productivity costs for caregivers can be used to better inform economic evaluations of prevention and treatment strategies for spina bifida. Cost-effectiveness calculations that omit caregiver productivity costs substantially overstate the net costs of the intervention and underestimate societal value.

Cumulative asbestos exposure for US automobile mechanics involved in brake repair (circa 1950s-2000).

PubMed

Finley, Brent L; Richter, Richard O; Mowat, Fionna S; Mlynarek, Steve; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Warmerdam, John M; Sheehan, Patrick J

2007-11-01

We analyzed cumulative lifetime exposure to chrysotile asbestos experienced by brake mechanics in the US during the period 1950-2000. Using Monte Carlo methods, cumulative exposures were calculated using the distribution of 8-h time-weighted average exposure concentrations for brake mechanics and the distribution of job tenure data for automobile mechanics. The median estimated cumulative exposures for these mechanics, as predicted by three probabilistic models, ranged from 0.16 to 0.41 fibers per cubic centimeter (f/cm(3)) year for facilities with no dust-control procedures (1970s), and from 0.010 to 0.012 f/cm(3) year for those employing engineering controls (1980s). Upper-bound (95%) estimates for the 1970s and 1980s were 1.96 to 2.79 and 0.07-0.10 f/cm(3) year, respectively. These estimates for US brake mechanics are consistent with, but generally slightly lower than, those reported for European mechanics. The values are all substantially lower than the cumulative exposure of 4.5 f/cm(3) year associated with occupational exposure to 0.1 f/cm(3) of asbestos for 45 years that is currently permitted under the current occupational exposure limits in the US. Cumulative exposures were usually about 100- to 1,000-fold less than those of other occupational groups with asbestos exposure for similar time periods. The cumulative lifetime exposure estimates presented here, combined with the negative epidemiology data for brake mechanics, could be used to refine the risk assessments for chrysotile-exposed populations.

Solar magnetic cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Karen L.

1993-01-01

Using NSO/KP magnetograms, the pattern and rate of the emergence of magnetic flux and the development of the large-scale patterns of unipolar fields are considered in terms of the solar magnetic cycle. Magnetic flux emerges in active regions at an average rate of 2 x 10(exp 21) Mx/day, approximately 10 times the estimated rate in ephemeral regions. Observations are presented that demonstrate that the large-scale unipolar fields originate in active regions and activity nests. For cycle 21, the net contribution of ephemeral regions to the axial dipole moment of the Sun is positive, and is of opposite sign to that of active regions. Its amplitude is smaller by a factor of 6, assuming an average lifetime of ephemeral regions of 8 hours. Active regions larger than 4500 Mm(sup 2) are the primary contributor to the cycle variation of Sun's axial dipole moment.

The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromsø, Norway.

PubMed

Ahmed, Luai A; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjørnerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M

2009-01-01

Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.

Incremental cost-utility of sevelamer relative to calcium carbonate for treatment of hyperphosphatemia among pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease patients.

PubMed

Nguyen, Hai V; Bose, Saideep; Finkelstein, Eric

2016-04-28

Sevelamer is an alternative to calcium carbonate for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia among non-dialysis dependent patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although some studies show that it may reduce mortality and delay the onset of dialysis when compared to calcium carbonate, it is also significantly more expensive. Prior studies looking at the incremental cost-effectiveness of sevelamer versus calcium carbonate in pre-dialysis patients are based on data from a single clinical trial. The goal of our study is to use a wider range of clinical data to achieve a more contemporary and robust cost-effectiveness analysis. We used a Markov model to estimate the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained for treatment with sevelamer versus calcium carbonate. The model simulated transitions among three health states (CKD not requiring dialysis, end-stage renal disease, and death). Data on transition probabilities and utilities were obtained from the published literature. Costs were calculated from a third party payer perspective and included medication, hospitalization, and dialysis. Sensitivity analyses were also run to encompass a wide range of assumptions about the dose, costs, and effectiveness of sevelamer. Over a lifetime, the average cost per patient treated with sevelamer is S$180,724. The estimated cost for patients treated with calcium carbonate is S$152,988. A patient treated with sevelamer gains, on average, 6.34 QALYs relative to no treatment, whereas a patient taking calcium carbonate gains 5.81 QALYs. Therefore, sevelamer produces an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of S$51,756 per QALY gained relative to calcium carbonate. Based on established benchmarks for cost-effectiveness, sevelamer is cost effective relative to calcium carbonate for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia among patients with chronic kidney disease initially not on dialysis.

Human health risk analysis from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking and bathing water of some Indian cities

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Human health risk assessment from exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) during drinking and bathing water vary from country to country as per life expectancy, body mass index, water consumption pattern and individual concentration of DBPs component, etc. Methods Present study considered average direct water intake per person for adult males and females as 4 & 3 L/day, respectively as per Indian literature for risk evaluation from another component of pollutant. While other important factor like average life expectancy, body weight & body surface area for male and female were considered 64 & 67 years, 51.9 & 45.4 Kg and 1.54 & 1.38 m2 respectively as per Indian Council of Medical Research and WHO report. The corresponding lifetime cancer risk of the formed THMs to human beings was estimated by the USEPA and IRIS method as per Indian population. Results The total cancer risk reached 8.99 E-04 and 8.92 E-04 for males and females, respectively, the highest risk from THMs seems to be from the inhalation route followed by ingestion and dermal contacts. Conclusions The multipath way evaluations of lifetime cancer risks for THMs exposure through ingestion, dermal absorption, and inhalation exposure were examined at the highest degree of danger. Results reveals that water containing THMs of the selected water treatment plant of the eastern part of India was unsafe in terms of risk evaluation through inhalation and ingestion, while dermal route of risk was found very close to permissible limit of USEPA. Sensitivity analysis shows that every input parameter is sole responsible for total risk potential, whereas exposure duration playing important role for estimation of total risk. PMID:24872885

Laparoscopic fundoplication compared with medical management for gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: cost effectiveness study.

PubMed

Epstein, David; Bojke, Laura; Sculpher, Mark J

2009-07-14

To describe the long term costs, health benefits, and cost effectiveness of laparoscopic surgery compared with those of continued medical management for patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). We estimated resource use and costs for the first year on the basis of data from the REFLUX trial. A Markov model was used to extrapolate cost and health benefit over a lifetime using data collected in the REFLUX trial and other sources. The model compared laparoscopic surgery and continued proton pump inhibitors in male patients aged 45 and stable on GORD medication. Laparoscopic surgery versus continued medical management. We estimated quality adjusted life years and GORD related costs to the health service over a lifetime. Sensitivity analyses considered other plausible scenarios, in particular size and duration of treatment effect and the GORD symptoms of patients in whom surgery is unsuccessful. Main results The base case model indicated that surgery is likely to be considered cost effective on average with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of pound2648 (euro3110; US$4385) per quality adjusted life year and that the probability that surgery is cost effective is 0.94 at a threshold incremental cost effectiveness ratio of pound20 000. The results were sensitive to some assumptions within the extrapolation modelling. Surgery seems to be more cost effective on average than medical management in many of the scenarios examined in this study. Surgery might not be cost effective if the treatment effect does not persist over the long term, if patients who return to medical management have poor health related quality of life, or if proton pump inhibitors were cheaper. Further follow-up of patients from the REFLUX trial may be valuable. ISRCTN15517081.

Disinfection Byproducts in Drinking Water and Evaluation of Potential Health Risks of Long-Term Exposure in Nigeria.

PubMed

Benson, Nsikak U; Akintokun, Oyeronke A; Adedapo, Adebusayo E

2017-01-01

Levels of trihalomethanes (THMs) in drinking water from water treatment plants (WTPs) in Nigeria were studied using a gas chromatograph (GC Agilent 7890A with autosampler Agilent 7683B) equipped with electron capture detector (ECD). The mean concentrations of the trihalomethanes ranged from zero in raw water samples to 950  μ g/L in treated water samples. Average concentration values of THMs in primary and secondary disinfection samples exceeded the standard maximum contaminant levels. Results for the average THMs concentrations followed the order TCM > BDCM > DBCM > TBM. EPA-developed models were adopted for the estimation of chronic daily intakes (CDI) and excess cancer incidence through ingestion pathway. Higher average intake was observed in adults (4.52 × 10 -2  mg/kg-day), while the ingestion in children (3.99 × 10 -2  mg/kg-day) showed comparable values. The total lifetime cancer incidence rate was relatively higher in adults than children with median values 244 and 199 times the negligible risk level.

Potential costs of breast augmentation mammaplasty.

PubMed

Schmitt, William P; Eichhorn, Mitchell G; Ford, Ronald D

2016-01-01

Augmentation mammaplasty is one of the most common surgical procedures performed by plastic surgeons. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost of the initial procedure and its subsequent complications, as well as project the cost of Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-recommended surveillance imaging. The potential costs to the individual patient and society were calculated. Local plastic surgeons provided billing data for the initial primary silicone augmentation and reoperative procedures. Complication rates used for the cost analysis were obtained from the Allergen Core study on silicone implants. Imaging surveillance costs were considered in the estimations. The average baseline initial cost of silicone augmentation mammaplasty was calculated at $6335. The average total cost of primary breast augmentation over the first decade for an individual patient, including complications requiring reoperation and other ancillary costs, was calculated at $8226. Each decade thereafter cost an additional $1891. Costs may exceed $15,000 over an averaged lifetime, and the recommended implant surveillance could cost an additional $33,750. The potential cost of a breast augmentation, which includes the costs of complications and imaging, is significantly higher than the initial cost of the procedure. Level III, economic and decision analysis study. Copyright © 2015 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime Risk for Sudden Cardiac Death in the Community.

PubMed

Bogle, Brittany M; Ning, Hongyan; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Goldberger, Jeffrey J; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2016-06-29

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a leading cause of death in the United States and often occurs without previous cardiac symptoms. Lifetime risk for SCD and the influence of established risk factors on lifetime risks for SCD have not been estimated previously. We followed Framingham Heart Study participants who were free of cardiovascular disease before their earliest examination. SCD was defined as death attributed to coronary heart disease within 1 hour of symptom onset without another probable cause of death, as adjudicated by a panel of 3 physicians. Lifetime risk for SCD was estimated to 85 years of age for men and women, with death attributed to other causes as the competing risk, and stratified by risk factor levels. We followed 2294 men and 2785 women for 160 396 person-years; 375 experienced SCD. At 45 years of age, lifetime risks were 10.9% (95% CI, 9.4-12.5) for men and 2.8% (95% CI, 2.1-3.5) for women. Greater aggregate burden of established risk factors was associated with a higher lifetime risk for SCD. Categorizing men and women solely by blood pressure levels resulted in a clear stratification of lifetime risk curves. We present the first lifetime risk estimates for SCD. Greater aggregate risk factor burden, or blood pressure level alone, is associated with higher lifetime risks for SCD. This high risk of premature death attributed to SCD (approximately 1 in 9 men and 1 in 30 women) should serve as a motivator of public health efforts in preventing and responding to SCD. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Impact of work-related cancers in Taiwan-Estimation with QALY (quality-adjusted life year) and healthcare costs.

PubMed

Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Hung, Mei-Chuan; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-12-01

This study estimates the annual numbers of eight work-related cancers, total losses of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime healthcare expenditures that possibly could be saved by improving occupational health in Taiwan. Three databases were interlinked: the Taiwan Cancer Registry, the National Mortality Registry, and the National Health Insurance Research Database. Annual numbers of work-related cancers were estimated based on attributable fractions (AFs) abstracted from a literature review. The survival functions for eight cancers were estimated and extrapolated to lifetime using a semi-parametric method. A convenience sample of 8846 measurements of patients' quality of life with EQ-5D was collected for utility values and multiplied by survival functions to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALEs). The loss-of-QALE was obtained by subtracting the QALE of cancer from age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national vital statistics. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were estimated by multiplying the survival probability with mean monthly costs paid by the National Health Insurance for cancer diagnosis and treatment and summing this for the expected lifetime. A total of 3010 males and 726 females with eight work-related cancers were estimated in 2010. Among them, lung cancer ranked first in terms of QALY loss, with an annual total loss-of-QALE of 28,463 QALYs and total lifetime healthcare expenditures of US$36.6 million. Successful prevention of eight work-related cancers would not only avoid the occurrence of 3736 cases of cancer, but would also save more than US$70 million in healthcare costs and 46,750 QALYs for the Taiwan society in 2010.

Comparison of treatment outcome using two definitions of rapid cycling in subjects with bipolar II disorder.

PubMed

Amsterdam, Jay D; Lorenzo-Luaces, Lorenzo; DeRubeis, Robert J

2017-02-01

We examined differences in treatment outcome between Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Fourth Edition (DSM-IV)-defined rapid cycling and average lifetime-defined rapid cycling in subjects with bipolar II disorder. We hypothesized that, compared with the DSM-IV definition, the average lifetime definition of rapid cycling may better identify subjects with a history of more mood lability and a greater likelihood of hypomanic symptom induction during long-term treatment. Subjects ≥18 years old with a bipolar II major depressive episode (n=129) were categorized into DSM-IV- and average lifetime-defined rapid cycling and prospectively treated with either venlafaxine or lithium monotherapy for 12 weeks. Responders (n=59) received continuation monotherapy for six additional months. These exploratory analyses found moderate agreement between the two rapid-cycling definitions (κ=0.56). The lifetime definition captured subjects with more chronic courses of bipolar II depression, whereas the DSM-IV definition captured subjects with more acute symptoms of hypomania. There was no difference between rapid-cycling definitions with respect to the response to acute venlafaxine or lithium monotherapy. However, the lifetime definition was slightly superior to the DSM-IV definition in identifying subjects who went on to experience hypomanic symptoms during continuation therapy. Although sample sizes were limited, the findings suggest that the lifetime definition of rapid cycling may identify individuals with a chronic rapid-cycling course and may also be slightly superior to the DSM-IV definition in identifying individuals with hypomania during relapse-prevention therapy. These findings are preliminary in nature and need replication in larger, prospective, bipolar II studies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lifetime exposure to particulate air pollutants is negatively associated with lung function in non-asthmatic children.

PubMed

Tsui, Hung-Chang; Chen, Chi-Hsien; Wu, Ying-Hsuan; Chiang, Hung-Che; Chen, Bing-Yu; Guo, Yue Leon

2018-05-01

Pulmonary function is known to be affected by acute and subacute exposure to ambient air pollution. However, the impacts of lifetime exposure to air pollution on the pulmonary function of children have been inconsistent. The present study investigated the impact of lifetime residential exposure to intermediate levels of air pollution on the pulmonary function of schoolchildren. In 2011, a survey of children aged 6-15 years was conducted in 44 schools in Taiwan. Atopic history, residential history, and environmental factors were recorded. Spirograms were obtained from a random sample of children without asthma. A total of 535 girls and 481 boys without a history of asthma were enrolled. Lifetime residential exposure to air pollutants, including particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM 10 ), ozone (O 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and carbon monoxide (CO), was estimated using the kriging method, based on monitored data from the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration. Multiple linear regression was used to analyze the association between lifetime air pollution exposure and pulmonary function, after adjustment for potential confounders and recent exposure. After adjustment for 7-day average air pollutant levels, a 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was related to reductions in the forced expiratory volume in 1 s (-2.00%; 95% confidence interval [CI] -3.09% to -0.90%), forced vital capacity (-1.86%; CI: -2.96% to -0.75%), and maximal midexpiratory flow (-2.28%; CI: -4.04% to -0.51%). These associations were independent of the other pollutants. Lifetime exposure to 25-85 μg/m 3 of PM 10 has negative impacts on the pulmonary function of children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, E. A.; Ward, D. T.; Schmitt, M. W.; Phenneger, M. C.; Vaughn, F. J.; Lupisella, M. L.

1989-01-01

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Years of potential life lost and productivity costs because of cancer mortality and for specific cancer sites where human papillomavirus may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis-United States, 2003.

PubMed

Ekwueme, Donatus U; Chesson, Harrell W; Zhang, Kevin B; Balamurugan, Appathurai

2008-11-15

Although years of potential life lost (YPLL) and mortality-related productivity costs comprise a substantial portion of the burden of cancers where human papillomavirus (HPV) may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis (called HPV-associated cancers in this report), estimates of these costs are limited. The authors estimated the mortality-related burden (in terms of YPLL and productivity costs) of HPV-associated cancers (without regard to the percentage of each of these cancers that could be attributed to HPV) and all malignant cancers in the United States in 2003. The authors used 2003 national mortality data and US life tables to estimate YPLL for HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. YPLL was estimated by using the life expectancy method. The human capital approach was used to estimate the value of the expected future lifetime productivity losses caused by premature deaths from HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. Indirect mortality costs were estimated as the product of the number of deaths and the expected value of individuals' future earnings, including an imputed value of housekeeping services. In 2003, HPV-associated cancers accounted for 181,026 YPLL, which represented 2.4% of the estimated 7.5 million YPLL attributable to all malignant cancers in the United States. The average number of YPLL was 21.8 per HPV-associated cancer death and 16.3 per death from overall malignant cancers. Overall, HPV-associated cancers had the largest relative contribution to YPLL in women ages 30 to 34 years. The lifetime productivity cost from mortality in 2003 was $3.7 billion for HPV-associated cancer mortality and $133.5 billion for overall malignant cancer mortality. HPV-associated cancers impose a considerable burden in terms of premature deaths and productivity losses.

High current polarized electron source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleiman, R.; Adderley, P.; Grames, J.; Hansknecht, J.; Poelker, M.; Stutzman, M.

2018-05-01

Jefferson Lab operates two DC high voltage GaAs photoguns with compact inverted insulators. One photogun provides the polarized electron beam at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) up to 200 µA. The other gun is used for high average current photocathode lifetime studies at a dedicated test facility up to 4 mA of polarized beam and 10 mA of un-polarized beam. GaAs-based photoguns used at accelerators with extensive user programs must exhibit long photocathode operating lifetime. Achieving this goal represents a significant challenge for proposed facilities that must operate in excess of tens of mA of polarized average current. This contribution describes techniques to maintain good vacuum while delivering high beam currents, and techniques that minimize damage due to ion bombardment, the dominant mechanism that reduces photocathode yield. Advantages of higher DC voltage include reduced space-charge emittance growth and the potential for better photocathode lifetime. Highlights of R&D to improve the performance of polarized electron sources and prolong the lifetime of strained-superlattice GaAs are presented.

The quality-of-life burden of knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand adults: A model-based evaluation.

PubMed

Abbott, J Haxby; Usiskin, Ilana M; Wilson, Ross; Hansen, Paul; Losina, Elena

2017-01-01

Knee osteoarthritis is a leading global cause of health-related quality of life loss. The aim of this project was to quantify health losses arising from knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand (NZ) in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost. The Osteoarthritis Policy Model (OAPol), a validated Monte Carlo computer simulation model, was used to estimate QALYs lost due to knee osteoarthritis in the NZ adult population aged 40-84 over their lifetimes from the base year of 2006 until death. Data were from the NZ Health Survey, NZ Burden of Diseases, NZ Census, and relevant literature. QALYs were derived from NZ EQ-5D value set 2. Sensitivity to health state valuation, disease and pain prevalence were assessed in secondary analyses. Based on NZ EQ-5D health state valuations, mean health losses due to knee osteoarthritis over people's lifetimes in NZ are 3.44 QALYs per person, corresponding to 467,240 QALYs across the adult population. Average estimated per person QALY losses are higher for non-Māori females (3.55) than Māori females (3.38), and higher for non-Māori males (3.34) than Māori males (2.60). The proportion of QALYs lost out of the total quality-adjusted life expectancy for those without knee osteoarthritis is similar across all subgroups, ranging from 20 to 23 percent. At both the individual and population levels, knee osteoarthritis is responsible for large lifetime QALY losses. QALY losses are higher for females than males due to greater prevalence of knee osteoarthritis and higher life expectancy, and lower for Māori than non-Māori due to lower life expectancy. Large health gains are potentially realisable from public health and policy measures aimed at decreasing incidence, progression, pain, and disability of osteoarthritis.

Residential traffic density and childhood leukemia risk.

PubMed

Von Behren, Julie; Reynolds, Peggy; Gunier, Robert B; Rull, Rudolph P; Hertz, Andrew; Urayama, Kevin Y; Kronish, Daniel; Buffler, Patricia A

2008-09-01

Exposures to carcinogenic compounds from vehicle exhaust may increase childhood leukemia risk, and the timing of this exposure may be important. We examined the association between traffic density and childhood leukemia risk for three time periods: birth, time of diagnosis, and lifetime average, based on complete residential history in a case-control study. Cases were rapidly ascertained from participating hospitals in northern and central California between 1995 and 2002. Controls were selected from birth records, individually matched on age, sex, race, and Hispanic ethnicity. Traffic density was calculated by estimating total vehicle miles traveled per square mile within a 500-foot (152 meter) radius area around each address. We used conditional logistic regression analyses to account for matching factors and to adjust for household income. We included 310 cases of acute lymphocytic leukemias (ALL) and 396 controls in our analysis. The odds ratio for ALL and residential traffic density above the 75th percentile, compared with subjects with zero traffic density, was 1.17 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.76-1.81] for residence at diagnosis and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.70-1.78) for the residence at birth. For average lifetime traffic density, the odds ratio was 1.24 (95% CI, 0.74-2.08) for the highest exposure category. Living in areas of high traffic density during any of the exposure time periods was not associated with increased risk of childhood ALL in this study.

Silicosis among gold miners: exposure--response analyses and risk assessment.

PubMed Central

Steenland, K; Brown, D

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVES. This study sought to estimate the risk of silicosis by cumulative exposure-years in a cohort of miners exposed to silica, as well as the lifetime risk of silicosis under the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standard (0.09 mg/m3). METHODS. In a cohort study of 3330 gold miners who worked at least 1 year underground from 1940 to 1965 (average 9 years) and were exposed to a median silica level of 0.05 mg/m3 (0.15 mg/m3 for those hired before 1930), 170 cases of silicosis were determined from either death certificates or two cross-sectional radiographic surveys. RESULTS. The risk of silicosis was less than 1% with a cumulative exposure under 0.5 mg/m3-years, increasing to 68% to 84% for the highest cumulative exposure category of more than 4 mg/m3-years. Cumulative exposure was the best predictor of disease, followed by duration of exposure and average exposure. After adjustment for competing risks of death, a 45-year exposure under the current OSHA standard would lead to a lifetime risk of silicosis of 35% to 47%. CONCLUSIONS. Almost 2 million US workers are currently exposed to silica. Our results add to a small but increasing body of literature that suggests that the current OSHA silica exposure level is unacceptably high. PMID:7573620

Economic value of in vitro fertilization in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

PubMed

Mandrik, Olena; Knies, Saskia; Severens, Johan L

2015-01-01

An economic value calculation was performed to estimate the lifetime net present value of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Net lifetime tax revenues were used to represent governmental benefits accruing from a hypothetical cohort of an IVF population born in 2009 using the methodology of generational accounting. Governmental expenses related to this population included social benefits, education and health care, unemployment support, and pensions. Where available, country-specific data referencing official sources were applied. The average health care cost needed to achieve one additional birth from the governmental perspective varied from $2,599 in Ukraine to $5,509 in Belarus. The net present value from the population born using IVF was positive in all countries: for Ukraine ($9,839), Belarus ($21,702), and Kazakhstan ($2,295). The break-even costs of drugs and supplies per IVF procedure is expected to be $3,870, $8,530, and $1,780, respectively. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses based on 5,000 simulations show that the average net present value per person remains positive: $1,894±$7,619, $27,925±$12,407, and $17,229±$24,637 in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, respectively. Financing IVF may represent a good investment in terms of governmental financial returns, even in lower-income countries with state-financed health care systems such as Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

Economic value of in vitro fertilization in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan

PubMed Central

Mandrik, Olena; Knies, Saskia; Severens, Johan L

2015-01-01

Background An economic value calculation was performed to estimate the lifetime net present value of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Methods Net lifetime tax revenues were used to represent governmental benefits accruing from a hypothetical cohort of an IVF population born in 2009 using the methodology of generational accounting. Governmental expenses related to this population included social benefits, education and health care, unemployment support, and pensions. Where available, country-specific data referencing official sources were applied. Results The average health care cost needed to achieve one additional birth from the governmental perspective varied from $2,599 in Ukraine to $5,509 in Belarus. The net present value from the population born using IVF was positive in all countries: for Ukraine ($9,839), Belarus ($21,702), and Kazakhstan ($2,295). The break-even costs of drugs and supplies per IVF procedure is expected to be $3,870, $8,530, and $1,780, respectively. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses based on 5,000 simulations show that the average net present value per person remains positive: $1,894±$7,619, $27,925±$12,407, and $17,229±$24,637 in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, respectively. Conclusion Financing IVF may represent a good investment in terms of governmental financial returns, even in lower-income countries with state-financed health care systems such as Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. PMID:26109873

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Total Hip Arthroplasty Performed by a Canadian Short-Stay Surgical Team in Ecuador

PubMed Central

Schlegelmilch, Michael; Moreau, Barbara; Jarrín, Patricia; Tran, Bach; Chuck, Anderson

2017-01-01

Background Few charitable overseas surgical missions produce cost-effectiveness analyses of their work. Methods We compared the pre- and postoperative health status for 157 total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients operated on from 2007 to 2011 attended by an annual Canadian orthopedic mission to Ecuador to determine the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The costs of each mission are known. The cost per surgery was divided by the average lifetime QALYs gained to estimate an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in Canadian dollars per QALY. Results The average lifetime QALYs (95% CI) gained were 1.46 (1.4–1.5), 2.5 (2.4–2.6), and 2.9 (2.7–3.1) for unilateral, bilateral, and staged (two THAs in different years) operations, respectively. The ICERs were $4,442 for unilateral, $2,939 for bilateral, and $4392 for staged procedures. Seventy percent of the mission budget was spent on the transport and accommodation of volunteers. Conclusion THA by a Canadian short-stay surgical team was highly cost-effective, according to criteria from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and the World Health Organization. We encourage other international missions to provide similar cost-effectiveness data to enable better comparison between mission types and between mission and nonmission care. PMID:29403664

Solar Exposure and Residential Geographic History in Relation to Exfoliation Syndrome in the United States and Israel

PubMed Central

Pasquale, Louis R.; Jiwani, Aliya Z.; Zehavi-Dorin, Tzukit; Majd, Arow; Rhee, Douglas J.; Chen, Teresa; Turalba, Angela; Shen, Lucy; Brauner, Stacey; Grosskreutz, Cynthia; Gardiner, Matthew; Chen, Sherleen; Borboli-Gerogiannis, Sheila; Greenstein, Scott H.; Chang, Kenneth; Ritch, Robert; Loomis, Stephanie; Kang, Jae H.; Wiggs, Janey L.; Levkovitch-Verbin, Hani

2014-01-01

Importance Residential (geographic) history and extent of solar exposure may be important risk factors for exfoliation syndrome, but detailed lifetime solar exposure has not been previously evaluated in exfoliation syndrome. Objective To assess the relation between residential history, solar exposure and exfoliation syndrome. Design Clinic-based, case control studies. Setting A clinical center in the United States and in Israel. Participants Exfoliation syndrome cases and controls (all 60+ years old Caucasians) enrolled from 2010 to 2012 (United States: 118 cases and 106 controls; Israel: 67 cases and 72 controls). Main Outcomes and Measures Weighted lifetime average latitude of residence and average number of hours per week spent outdoors as determined by validated questionnaires. Results In multivariable analyses, each degree of weighted lifetime average residential latitude away from the equator was associated with an 11% increased odds of exfoliation syndrome (pooled odds ratio = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.05-1.17; p < .001). Furthermore, every hour per week spent outdoors during the summer, averaged over a lifetime, was associated with a 4% increased odds of exfoliation syndrome (pooled odds ratio = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.00-1.07; p = .03). For every 1% of average lifetime summer time between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. that sunglasses were worn, the odds of exfoliation syndrome decreased by 2% (odds ratio = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99; p < .001) in the United States, but not in Israel (odds ratio = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.99-1.01; p = .92; p for heterogeneity = .005). In the United States, after controlling for important environmental covariates, history of work over water or snow was associated with increased odds of exfoliation syndrome (odds ratio = 3.86; 95% CI: 1.36-10.9); in Israel, there were too few people with such history for analysis. We did not identify an association between brimmed hat wear and exfoliation syndrome (p>.57). Conclusion and Relevance Lifetime outdoor activities may contribute to exfoliation syndrome. The association with work over snow or water and the lack of association with brimmed hat wear suggests that ocular exposure to light from reflective surfaces may be an important type of exposure in exfoliation syndrome etiology. PMID:25188364

Evaluation of actinic cheilitis using fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito Nogueira, Marcelo; Cosci, Alessandro; Pratavieira, Sebastião.; Takahama, Ademar; Souza Azevedo, Rebeca; Kurachi, Cristina

2016-03-01

Actinic cheilitis is a potentially malignant disorder that mostly affects the vermilion border of the lower lip and can lead to squamous cell carcinoma. Because of its heterogeneous clinical aspect, it is difficult to indicate representative biopsy area. Late diagnosis is a limiting factor of therapeutic possibilities available to treat oral cancer. The diagnosis of actinic cheilitis is mainly based on clinical and histopathological analysis and it is a time consuming procedure to get the results. Information about the organization and chemical composition of the tissues can be obtained using fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy techniques without the need for biopsy. The main targeted fluorophores are NADH (nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide) and FAD (flavin adenine dinucleotide), which have free and bound states, each one with different average lifetimes. The average lifetimes for free and bound NADH and FAD change according to tissue metabolic alterations and allow a quick and non-invasive clinical investigation of injuries and to help clinicians with the early diagnosis of actinic cheilitis. This study aims to evaluate the fluorescence lifetime parameters at the discrimination of three degrees of epithelial dysplasia, the most important predictor of malignant development, described in up to 100% of actinic cheilitis cases.

Towards in vivo bacterial detection in human lung(Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, Tushar R.; Bradley, Mark; Duncan, Rory R.; Dhaliwal, Kevin

2017-04-01

Antibiotic resistance is a serious global concern. One way to tackle this problem is to develop new and sensitive approaches to diagnose bacterial infections and prevent unnecessary antibiotic use. With recent developments in optical molecular imaging, we are one step closer to in situ rapid detection of bacterial infections. We present here bespoke fluorescent probes for bacterial detection in ex vivo human lung tissue using fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM). Two in-house synthesised bespoke probes were used in this study to detect and differentiate between Gram positive and Gram negative bacterial strain using their fluorescence lifetime in the ex vivo human lung tissue. The average fluorescence lifetime of Gram positive probe (n=12) was 2.40 ± 0.25 ns and Gram negative (n=12) was 6.73 ± 0.49 ns. The human lung tissue (n=12) average fluorescence lifetime value was found to be 3.43 ± 0.19 ns. Furthermore we were also able to distinguish between dead or alive bacteria in ex vivo lung tissue based on difference in their lifetime. We have developped Fibre-FLIM methods to enable clinical translation within the Proteus Project (www.proteus.ac.uk).

Prediction of the Creep-Fatigue Lifetime of Alloy 617: An Application of Non-destructive Evaluation and Information Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vivek Agarwal; Richard Wright; Timothy Roney

A relatively simple method using the nominal constant average stress information and the creep rupture model is developed to predict the creep-fatigue lifetime of Alloy 617, in terms of time to rupture. The nominal constant average stress is computed using the stress relaxation curve. The predicted time to rupture can be converted to number of cycles to failure using the strain range, the strain rate during each cycle, and the hold time information. The predicted creep-fatigue lifetime is validated against the experimental measurements of the creep-fatigue lifetime collected using conventional laboratory creep-fatigue tests. High temperature creep-fatigue tests of Alloy 617more » were conducted in air at 950°C with a tensile hold period of up to 1800s in a cycle at total strain ranges of 0.3% and 0.6%. It was observed that the proposed method is conservative in that the predicted lifetime is less than the experimentally determined values. The approach would be relevant to calculate the remaining useful life to a component like a steam generator that might fail by the creep-fatigue mechanism.« less

Neutron Lifetime and Axial Coupling Connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czarnecki, Andrzej; Marciano, William J.; Sirlin, Alberto

2018-05-01

Experimental studies of neutron decay, n →p e ν ¯, exhibit two anomalies. The first is a 8.6(2.1) s, roughly 4 σ difference between the average beam measured neutron lifetime, τnbeam=888.0 (2.0 ) s , and the more precise average trapped ultracold neutron determination, τntrap=879.4 (6 ) s . The second is a 5 σ difference between the pre2002 average axial coupling, gA, as measured in neutron decay asymmetries gApre 2002=1.2637 (21 ) , and the more recent, post2002, average gApost 2002=1.2755 (11 ), where, following the UCNA Collaboration division, experiments are classified by the date of their most recent result. In this Letter, we correlate those τn and gA values using a (slightly) updated relation τn(1 +3 gA2)=5172.0 (1.1 ) s . Consistency with that relation and better precision suggest τnfavored=879.4 (6 ) s and gAfavored=1.2755 (11 ) as preferred values for those parameters. Comparisons of gAfavored with recent lattice QCD and muonic hydrogen capture results are made. A general constraint on exotic neutron decay branching ratios, <0.27 %, is discussed and applied to a recently proposed solution to the neutron lifetime puzzle.

Health risk assessment of inorganic arsenic intake of Ronphibun residents via duplicate diet study.

PubMed

Saipan, Piyawat; Ruangwises, Suthep

2009-06-01

To assess health risk from exposure to inorganic arsenic via duplicate portion sampling method in Ronphibun residents. A hundred and forty samples (140 subject-days) were collected from participants in Ronphibun sub-district. Inorganic arsenic in duplicate diet sample was determined by acid digestion and hydride generation-atomic absorption spectrometry. Deterministic risk assessment is referenced throughout the present paper using United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) guidelines. The average daily dose and lifetime average daily dose of inorganic arsenic via duplicate diet were 0.0021 mg/kg/d and 0.00084 mg/kg/d, respectively. The risk estimates in terms of hazard quotient was 6.98 and cancer risk was 1.26 x 10(-3). The results of deterministic risk characterization both hazard quotient and cancer risk from exposure inorganic arsenic in duplicate diets were greater than safety risk levels of hazard quotient (1) and cancer risk (1 x 10(-4)).

Exposure to atmospheric radon.

PubMed Central

Steck, D J; Field, R W; Lynch, C F

1999-01-01

We measured radon (222Rn) concentrations in Iowa and Minnesota and found that unusually high annual average radon concentrations occur outdoors in portions of central North America. In some areas, outdoor concentrations exceed the national average indoor radon concentration. The general spatial patterns of outdoor radon and indoor radon are similar to the spatial distribution of radon progeny in the soil. Outdoor radon exposure in this region can be a substantial fraction of an individual's total radon exposure and is highly variable across the population. Estimated lifetime effective dose equivalents for the women participants in a radon-related lung cancer study varied by a factor of two at the median dose, 8 mSv, and ranged up to 60 mSv (6 rem). Failure to include these doses can reduce the statistical power of epidemiologic studies that examine the lung cancer risk associated with residential radon exposure. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 PMID:9924007

Global-mean BC lifetime as an indicator of model skill? Constraining the vertical aerosol distribution using aircraft observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, M. T.; Samset, B. H.; Skeie, R. B.; Berntsen, T.

2017-12-01

Several recent studies have used observations from the HIPPO flight campaigns to constrain the modeled vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) over the Pacific. Results indicate a relatively linear relationship between global-mean atmospheric BC residence time, or lifetime, and bias in current models. A lifetime of less than 5 days is necessary for models to reasonably reproduce these observations. This is shorter than what many global models predict, which will in turn affect their estimates of BC climate impacts. Here we use the chemistry-transport model OsloCTM to examine whether this relationship between global BC lifetime and model skill also holds for a broader a set of flight campaigns from 2009-2013 covering both remote marine and continental regions at a range of latitudes. We perform four sets of simulations with varying scavenging efficiency to obtain a spread in the modeled global BC lifetime and calculate the model error and bias for each campaign and region. Vertical BC profiles are constructed using an online flight simulator, as well by averaging and interpolating monthly mean model output, allowing us to quantify sampling errors arising when measurements are compared with model output at different spatial and temporal resolutions. Using the OsloCTM coupled with a microphysical aerosol parameterization, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled BC vertical distribution to uncertainties in the aerosol aging and scavenging processes in more detail. From this, we can quantify how model uncertainties in the BC life cycle propagate into uncertainties in its climate impacts. For most campaigns and regions, a short global-mean BC lifetime corresponds with the lowest model error and bias. On an aggregated level, sampling errors appear to be small, but larger differences are seen in individual regions. However, we also find that model-measurement discrepancies in BC vertical profiles cannot be uniquely attributed to uncertainties in a single process or parameter, at least in this model. Model development therefore needs to focus on improvements to individual processes, supported by a broad range of observational and experimental data, rather than tuning individual, effective parameters such as global BC lifetime.

Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability: NITROUS OXIDE AND ITS CHANGING LIFETIME

DOE PAGES

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; DeLuca, Nicole M.; ...

2015-06-05

The lifetime of nitrous oxide, the third‐most‐important human‐emitted greenhouse gas, is based to date primarily on model studies or scaling to other gases. This work calculates a semiempirical lifetime based on Microwave Limb Sounder satellite measurements of stratospheric profiles of nitrous oxide, ozone, and temperature; laboratory cross‐section data for ozone and molecular oxygen plus kinetics for O(1D); the observed solar spectrum; and a simple radiative transfer model. The result is 116 ± 9 years. The observed monthly‐to‐biennial variations in lifetime and tropical abundance are well matched by four independent chemistry‐transport models driven by reanalysis meteorological fields for the period of observation (2005–2010), butmore » all these models overestimate the lifetime due to lower abundances in the critical loss region near 32 km in the tropics. These models plus a chemistry‐climate model agree on the nitrous oxide feedback factor on its own lifetime of 0.94 ± 0.01, giving N2O perturbations an effective residence time of 109 years. Combining this new empirical lifetime with model estimates of residence time and preindustrial lifetime (123 years) adjusts our best estimates of the human‐natural balance of emissions today and improves the accuracy of projected nitrous oxide increases over this century.« less

Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; DeLuca, Nicole M.; Jackman, Charles H.; Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Strahan, Susan E.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Søvde, O. Amund; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Funke, Bernd

2015-06-01

The lifetime of nitrous oxide, the third-most-important human-emitted greenhouse gas, is based to date primarily on model studies or scaling to other gases. This work calculates a semiempirical lifetime based on Microwave Limb Sounder satellite measurements of stratospheric profiles of nitrous oxide, ozone, and temperature; laboratory cross-section data for ozone and molecular oxygen plus kinetics for O(1D); the observed solar spectrum; and a simple radiative transfer model. The result is 116 ± 9 years. The observed monthly-to-biennial variations in lifetime and tropical abundance are well matched by four independent chemistry-transport models driven by reanalysis meteorological fields for the period of observation (2005-2010), but all these models overestimate the lifetime due to lower abundances in the critical loss region near 32 km in the tropics. These models plus a chemistry-climate model agree on the nitrous oxide feedback factor on its own lifetime of 0.94 ± 0.01, giving N2O perturbations an effective residence time of 109 years. Combining this new empirical lifetime with model estimates of residence time and preindustrial lifetime (123 years) adjusts our best estimates of the human-natural balance of emissions today and improves the accuracy of projected nitrous oxide increases over this century.

Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability

DOE PAGES

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; DeLuca, Nicole M.; ...

2015-05-14

The lifetime of nitrous oxide, the third-most-important human-emitted greenhouse gas, is based to date primarily on model studies or scaling to other gases. This work calculates a semiempirical lifetime based on Microwave Limb Sounder satellite measurements of stratospheric profiles of nitrous oxide, ozone, and temperature; laboratory cross-section data for ozone and molecular oxygen plus kinetics for O( 1D); the observed solar spectrum; and a simple radiative transfer model. The result is 116 ± 9 years. The observed monthly-to-biennial variations in lifetime and tropical abundance are well matched by four independent chemistry-transport models driven by reanalysis meteorological fields for the periodmore » of observation (2005–2010), but all these models overestimate the lifetime due to lower abundances in the critical loss region near 32 km in the tropics. These models plus a chemistry-climate model agree on the nitrous oxide feedback factor on its own lifetime of 0.94 ± 0.01, giving N 2O perturbations an effective residence time of 109 years. Combining this new empirical lifetime with model estimates of residence time and preindustrial lifetime (123 years) adjusts our best estimates of the human-natural balance of emissions today and improves the accuracy of projected nitrous oxide increases over this century.« less

Direct measurement of fast transients by using boot-strapped waveform averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, Mattias; Edman, Fredrik; Karki, Khadga Jung

2018-03-01

An approximation to coherent sampling, also known as boot-strapped waveform averaging, is presented. The method uses digital cavities to determine the condition for coherent sampling. It can be used to increase the effective sampling rate of a repetitive signal and the signal to noise ratio simultaneously. The method is demonstrated by using it to directly measure the fluorescence lifetime from Rhodamine 6G by digitizing the signal from a fast avalanche photodiode. The obtained lifetime of 4.0 ns is in agreement with the known values.

Atmospheric Sulfur Hexafluoride: Sources, Sinks and Greenhouse Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sze, Nien Dak; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Shia, George; Goldman, Aaron; Murcray, Frank J.; Murcray, David G.; Rinsland, Curtis P.

1993-01-01

Model calculations using estimated reaction rates of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) with OH and 0('D) indicate that the atmospheric lifetime due to these processes may be very long (25,000 years). An upper limit for the UV cross section would suggest a photolysis lifetime much longer than 1000 years. The possibility of other removal mechanisms are discussed. The estimated lifetimes are consistent with other estimated values based on recent laboratory measurements. There appears to be no known natural source of SF6. An estimate of the current production rate of SF6 is about 5 kt/yr. Based on historical emission rates, we calculated a present-day atmospheric concentrations for SF6 of about 2.5 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) and compared the results with available atmospheric measurements. It is difficult to estimate the atmospheric lifetime of SF6 based on mass balance of the emission rate and observed abundance. There are large uncertainties concerning what portion of the SF6 is released to the atmosphere. Even if the emission rate were precisely known, it would be difficult to distinguish among lifetimes longer than 100 years since the current abundance of SF6 is due to emission in the past three decades. More information on the measured trends over the past decade and observed vertical and latitudinal distributions of SF6 in the lower stratosphere will help to narrow the uncertainty in the lifetime. Based on laboratory-measured IR absorption cross section for SF6, we showed that SF6 is about 3 times more effective as a greenhouse gas compared to CFC 11 on a per molecule basis. However, its effect on atmospheric warming will be minimal because of its very small concentration. We estimated the future concentration of SF6 at 2010 to be 8 and 10 pptv based on two projected emission scenarios. The corresponding equilibrium warming of 0.0035 C and 0.0043 C is to be compared with the estimated warming due to CO2 increase of about 0.8 C in the same period.

Mental disorders in current and former heavy ecstasy (MDMA) users.

PubMed

Thomasius, R; Petersen, K U; Zapletalova, P; Wartberg, L; Zeichner, D; Schmoldt, A

2005-09-01

Ecstasy use has often been found to be associated with psychopathology, yet this research has so far been based largely on subjective symptom ratings. To investigate whether ecstasy users suffered from long-term psychopathological consequences. We compared the prevalence of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual version IV (DSM-IV) mental disorders in 30 current and 29 former ecstasy users, 29 polydrug and 30 drug-naive controls. Groups were approximately matched by age, gender and level of education. The current ecstasy users reported a life-time dose of an average of 821 and the former ecstasy users of 768 ecstasy tablets. Ecstasy users did not significantly differ from controls in the prevalence of mental disorders, except those related to substance use. Substance-induced affective, anxiety and cognitive disorders occurred more frequently among ecstasy users than polydrug controls. The life-time prevalence of ecstasy dependence amounted to 73% in the ecstasy user groups. More than half of the former ecstasy users and nearly half of the current ecstasy users met the criteria of substance-induced cognitive disorders at the time of testing. Logistic regression analyses showed the estimated life-time doses of ecstasy to be predictive of cognitive disorders, both current and life-time. The motivation for ecstasy use is not likely to be self-medication of pre-existing depressive or anxiety disorders as these did not occur more frequently in the ecstasy users than in control groups or in the general population. Cognitive disorders still present after over 5 months of ecstasy abstinence may well be functional consequences of serotonergic neurotoxicity of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA).

Radiation Exposure and Attributable Cancer Risk in Patients With Esophageal Atresia.

PubMed

Yousef, Yasmine; Baird, Robert

2018-02-01

Cases of esophageal carcinoma have been documented in survivors of esophageal atresia (EA). Children with EA undergo considerable amounts of diagnostic imaging and consequent radiation exposure potentially increasing their lifetime cancer mortality risk. This study evaluates the radiological procedures performed on patients with EA and estimates their cumulative radiation exposure and attributable lifetime cancer mortality risk. Medical records of patients with EA managed at a tertiary care center were reviewed for demographics, EA subtype, and number and type of radiological investigations. Existing normative data were used to estimate the cumulative radiation exposure and lifetime cancer risk per patient. The present study included 53 patients with a mean follow-up of 5.7 years. The overall median and maximum estimated effective radiation dose in the neonatal period was 5521.4 μSv/patient and 66638.6 μSv/patient, respectively. This correlates to a median and maximum estimated cumulative lifetime cancer mortality risk of 1:1530 and 1:130, respectively. Hence, radiation exposure in the neonatal period increased the cumulative cancer mortality risk a median of 130-fold and a maximum of 1575-fold in EA survivors. Children with EA are exposed to significant amounts of radiation and an increased estimated cumulative cancer mortality risk. Efforts should be made to eliminate superfluous imaging.

High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

PubMed

Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

2014-01-21

To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

Growth process in an elephant tusk: Age estimations based on temporal variations in bomb-radiocarbon content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Toshio; Koike, Hiroko; Aizawa, Jun; Okuno, Mitsuru

2015-10-01

In this study, 14C analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was applied to age estimation based on temporal variations in bomb-produced-14C contents of a full elephant tusk registered at Kyushu University. The tusk measured 175 cm long and 13.8 cm in diameter at the root. Thirty tusk-fragment samples were used for 14C analysis with AMS to estimate the formation ages of different positions according to catalogued global 14C contents (F14C). The F14C value of the tip of the tusk suggested that the elephant was born around 1980, while that of the root suggested death around 1994, a lifespan of at least 14 years, rather shorter period than the average lifetime of an elephant (ca. 80 years). In addition, the F14C values of fragments collected along a cross-sectional line suggested that the outer part of the tusk formed first with inner parts being deposited gradually with growth.

Energy acceptance and on momentum aperture optimization for the Sirius project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dester, P. S.; Sá, F. H.; Liu, L.

2017-07-01

A fast objective function to calculate Touschek lifetime and on momentum aperture is essential to explore the vast search space of strength of quadrupole and sextupole families in Sirius. Touschek lifetime is estimated by using the energy aperture (dynamic and physical), RF system parameters and driving terms. Non-linear induced betatron oscillations are considered to determine the energy aperture. On momentum aperture is estimated by using a chaos indicator and resonance crossing considerations. Touschek lifetime and on momentum aperture constitute the objective function, which was used in a multi-objective genetic algorithm to perform an optimization for Sirius.

Lifetime Net Merit vs. annualized net present value as measures of profitability of selection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Current USDA linear selection indexes such as Lifetime Net Merit (NM$) estimate lifetime profit given a combination of 13 traits. In these indexes, every animal gets credit for 2.78 lactations of the traits expressed per lactation, independent of its productive life (PL). Selection among animals wit...

Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine.

PubMed

Petry, Karl-Ulrich; Bollaerts, Kaatje; Bonanni, Paolo; Stanley, Margaret; Drury, Rosybel; Joura, Elmar; Kjaer, Susanne K; Meijer, Chris J L M; Riethmuller, Didier; Soubeyrand, Benoit; Van Damme, Pierre; Bosch, Xavier

2018-03-19

The nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine is indicated for active immunisation of individuals from the age of 9 years against cervical, vulvar, vaginal and anal premalignant lesions and cancers causally related to vaccine HPV high risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58, and to the HPV low risk types 6 and 11, causing genital warts. To estimate the lifetime risk (up to the age of 75 years) for developing cervical cancer after vaccinating a HPV naïve girl (e.g. 9 to 12 years old) with the 9vHPV vaccine in the hypothetical absence of cervical cancer screening. We built Monte Carlo simulation models using historical pre-screening age-specific cancer incidence data and current mortality data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Estimates of genotype contribution fractions and vaccine efficacy were used to estimate the residual lifetime risk after vaccination assuming lifelong protection. We estimated that, in the hypothetical absence of cervical screening and assuming lifelong protection, 9vHPV vaccination reduced the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks 7-fold with a residual lifetime cancer risks ranging from 1/572 (UK) to 1/238 (Denmark) and mortality risks ranging from 1/1488 (UK) to 1/851 (Denmark). After decades of repetitive cervical screenings, the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks was reduced between 2- and 4-fold depending on the country. Our simulations demonstrate how evidence can be generated to support decision-making by individual healthcare seekers regarding cervical cancer prevention.

A New Lifetime Distribution with Bathtube and Unimodal Hazard Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriga, Gladys D. C.; Louzada-Neto, Francisco; Cancho, Vicente G.

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which accommodate bathtub-shaped, unimodal, increasing and decreasing hazard function. Some special particular cases are derived, including the standard Weibull distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered for estimate the tree parameters present in the model. The methodology is illustrated in a real data set on industrial devices on a lite test.

AYUSH: A Technique for Extending Lifetime of SRAM-NVM Hybrid Caches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mittal, Sparsh; Vetter, Jeffrey S

2014-01-01

Recently, researchers have explored way-based hybrid SRAM-NVM (non-volatile memory) last level caches (LLCs) to bring the best of SRAM and NVM together. However, the limited write endurance of NVMs restricts the lifetime of these hybrid caches. We present AYUSH, a technique to enhance the lifetime of hybrid caches, which works by using data-migration to preferentially use SRAM for storing frequently-reused data. Microarchitectural simulations confirm that AYUSH achieves larger improvement in lifetime than a previous technique and also maintains performance and energy efficiency. For single, dual and quad-core workloads, the average increase in cache lifetime with AYUSH is 6.90X, 24.06X andmore » 47.62X, respectively.« less

Estimating the distance separating fluorescent protein FRET pairs

PubMed Central

van der Meer, B. Wieb; Blank, Paul S.

2014-01-01

Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) describes a physical phenomenon widely applied in biomedical research to estimate separations between biological molecules. Routinely, genetic engineering is used to incorporate spectral variants of the green fluorescent protein (GFPs), into cellular expressed proteins. The transfer efficiency or rate of energy transfer between donor and acceptor FPs is then assayed. As appreciable FRET occurs only when donors and acceptors are in close proximity (1–10 nm), the presence of FRET may indicate that the engineered proteins associate as interacting species. For a homogeneous population of FRET pairs the separations between FRET donors and acceptors can be estimated from a measured FRET efficiency if it is assumed that donors and acceptors are randomly oriented and rotate extensively during their excited state (dynamic regime). Unlike typical organic fluorophores, the rotational correlation-times of FPs are typically much longer than their fluorescence lifetime; accordingly FPs are virtually static during their excited state. Thus, estimating separations between FP FRET pairs is problematic. To overcome this obstacle, we present here a simple method for estimating separations between FPs using the experimentally measured average FRET efficiency. This approach assumes that donor and acceptor fluorophores are randomly oriented, but do not rotate during their excited state (static regime). This approach utilizes a Monte-Carlo simulation generated look-up table that allows one to estimate the separation, normalized to the Förster distance, from the average FRET efficiency. Assuming a dynamic regime overestimates the separation significantly (by 10% near 0.5 and 30% near 0.75 efficiencies) compared to assuming a static regime, which is more appropriate for estimates of separations between FPs. PMID:23811334

Cost-effectiveness of carfilzomib plus dexamethasone compared with bortezomib plus dexamethasone for patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma in the United States.

PubMed

Jakubowiak, Andrzej J; Houisse, Ivan; Májer, István; Benedict, Ágnes; Campioni, Marco; Panjabi, Sumeet; Ailawadhi, Sikander

2017-12-01

We assessed the economic value of carfilzomib 56 mg/m 2 and dexamethasone (Kd56) vs. bortezomib and dexamethasone (Vd) for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (R/RMM) using ENDEAVOR trial results. Cost-effectiveness of Kd56 vs. Vd was assessed using a partitioned survival model by estimating progression-free survival, overall survival, and direct costs over a lifetime horizon. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) survival data were extrapolated after matching registry and ENDEAVOR patients. Utilities were sourced from the literature and mapped from patient-reported quality of life in ENDEAVOR to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from life-years (LYs). The model predicted an average gain of 1.66 LYs and 1.50 QALYs with Kd56 vs. Vd, and lifetime additional costs of $182,699, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $121,828/QALY gained. The ICER was $114,793/QALY in patients with 1 prior treatment; $99,263/QALY in those not transplanted, and <$150,000/QALY up to an 85% discount in bortezomib price. Kd56 is cost-effective for patients with R/RMM at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Trial data in the model may limit generalizability; however, SEER registry data mitigates this challenge. Kd56 provides additional value in key subgroups, and remains cost-effective after steep comparator discounts.

Exposure-Response Estimates for Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality Based on Data from Three Occupational Cohorts

PubMed Central

Silverman, Debra T.; Garshick, Eric; Vlaanderen, Jelle; Portengen, Lützen; Steenland, Kyle

2013-01-01

Background: Diesel engine exhaust (DEE) has recently been classified as a known human carcinogen. Objective: We derived a meta-exposure–response curve (ERC) for DEE and lung cancer mortality and estimated lifetime excess risks (ELRs) of lung cancer mortality based on assumed occupational and environmental exposure scenarios. Methods: We conducted a meta-regression of lung cancer mortality and cumulative exposure to elemental carbon (EC), a proxy measure of DEE, based on relative risk (RR) estimates reported by three large occupational cohort studies (including two studies of workers in the trucking industry and one study of miners). Based on the derived risk function, we calculated ELRs for several lifetime occupational and environmental exposure scenarios and also calculated the fractions of annual lung cancer deaths attributable to DEE. Results: We estimated a lnRR of 0.00098 (95% CI: 0.00055, 0.0014) for lung cancer mortality with each 1-μg/m3-year increase in cumulative EC based on a linear meta-regression model. Corresponding lnRRs for the individual studies ranged from 0.00061 to 0.0012. Estimated numbers of excess lung cancer deaths through 80 years of age for lifetime occupational exposures of 1, 10, and 25 μg/m3 EC were 17, 200, and 689 per 10,000, respectively. For lifetime environmental exposure to 0.8 μg/m3 EC, we estimated 21 excess lung cancer deaths per 10,000. Based on broad assumptions regarding past occupational and environmental exposures, we estimated that approximately 6% of annual lung cancer deaths may be due to DEE exposure. Conclusions: Combined data from three U.S. occupational cohort studies suggest that DEE at levels common in the workplace and in outdoor air appear to pose substantial excess lifetime risks of lung cancer, above the usually acceptable limits in the United States and Europe, which are generally set at 1/1,000 and 1/100,000 based on lifetime exposure for the occupational and general population, respectively. Citation: Vermeulen R, Silverman DT, Garshick E, Vlaanderen J, Portengen L, Steenland K. 2014. Exposure-response estimates for diesel engine exhaust and lung cancer mortality based on data from three occupational cohorts. Environ Health Perspect 122:172–177; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306880 PMID:24273233

The Long-Term Economic Benefits of Natural Mentoring Relationships for Youth

PubMed Central

Timpe, Zach C.; Lunkenheimer, Erika

2015-01-01

Natural mentors have been shown to help improve psychological and educational outcomes of youth, and may serve an important role for youth experiencing risk in the home. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), we investigated the associations between natural mentors during youth and income during early adulthood, including how these relations were moderated by the absence of a father figure and race. We also estimated the lifetime economic benefits to having a natural mentor. The presence of a natural mentor alone did not have a significant impact on annual earnings during adulthood. However, youth without a father but who had a male mentor earned significantly more, on average, than those without a male mentor. These effects were more pronounced in a sub-sample of African American youth. The net present value of total lifetime benefits to having a male natural mentor was approximately $190,000 for all fatherless youth and $458,000 for African American fatherless youth. These results suggest that natural mentors play a crucial role in economic outcomes for youth, which may vary by sociodemographic factors. PMID:26148978

The Long-Term Economic Benefits of Natural Mentoring Relationships for Youth.

PubMed

Timpe, Zach C; Lunkenheimer, Erika

2015-09-01

Natural mentors have been shown to help improve psychological and educational outcomes of youth, and may serve an important role for youth experiencing risk in the home. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), we investigated the associations between natural mentors during youth and income during early adulthood, including how these relations were moderated by the absence of a father figure and race. We also estimated the lifetime economic benefits to having a natural mentor. The presence of a natural mentor alone did not have a significant impact on annual earnings during adulthood. However, youth without a father but who had a male mentor earned significantly more, on average, than those without a male mentor. These effects were more pronounced in a subsample of African American youth. The net present value of total lifetime benefits to having a male natural mentor was approximately $190,000 for all fatherless youth and $458,000 for African American fatherless youth. These results suggest that natural mentors play a crucial role in economic outcomes for youth, which may vary by sociodemographic factors.

Effects of early exposure and lifetime exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) on child adjustment.

PubMed

Graham-Bermann, Sandra A; Perkins, Suzanne

2010-01-01

Children exposed to overwhelming and potentially traumatic events early in their lives are considered at-risk for problems in adjustment. Yet it is not known whether it is the age of first exposure (AFE) to violence or the amount of violence that the child witnessed in their lifetime that has the greatest impact on adjustment. For a sample of 190 children ages 6 to 12 exposed to intimate partner violence, their mothers reported that the average length of their abusive relationship was 10 years. The majority of children were first exposed to family violence as infants (64%), with only 12% first exposed when school-aged. Both the AFE and an estimate of the cumulative amount of violence were significantly and negatively related to children's behavioral problems. However, in regression analyses controlling for child sex, ethnicity, age, and family environment variables, cumulative violence exposure accounted for greater variance in adjustment than did AFE. Furthermore, cumulative violence exposure mediated the relationship between AFE and externalizing behavior problems, indicating that the cumulative exposure to IPV outweighed the AFE in its effect on child adjustment.

Impact of End-of-Life manoeuvres on the collision risk in protected regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Stefan; Lemmens, Stijn; Bastida Virgili, Benjamin; Flohrer, Tim; Gass, Volker

2017-09-01

The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, issued in 2002 and revised in 2007, address the post mission disposal of objects in orbit. After their mission, objects crossing the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) should have a remaining lifetime in orbit not exceeding 25 years. Objects near the Geostationary Orbit (GEO) region should be placed in an orbit that remains outside of the GEO protected region. In this paper, the impact of satellites and rocket bodies performing End-of-Life (EOL) orbital manoeuvres on the collision risk in the LEO and GEO protected regions is investigated. The cases of full or partial compliance with the IADC post mission disposal guideline are studied. ESA's Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) model is used to compare the space debris flux rate of the object during the remaining lifetime estimated for the pre-EOL-manoeuvre and for the post-EOL-manoeuvre orbit. The study shows that, on average, the probability of collision can be significantly decreased by performing an EOL-manoeuver.

Radiological impact of natural radioactivity in Egyptian phosphate rocks, phosphogypsum and phosphate fertilizers.

PubMed

El-Bahi, S M; Sroor, A; Mohamed, Gehan Y; El-Gendy, N S

2017-05-01

In this study, the activity concentrations of the natural radionuclides in phosphate rocks and its products were measured using a high- purity germanium detector (HPGe). The obtained activity results show remarkable wide variation in the radioactive contents for the different phosphate samples. The average activity concentration of 235 U, 238 U, 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K was found as (45, 1031, 786, 85 and 765Bq/kg) for phosphate rocks, (28, 1234, 457, 123 and 819Bq/kg) for phosphate fertilizers, (47, 663, 550, 79 and 870Bq/kg) for phosphogypsum and (25, 543, 409, 54 and 897Bq/kg) for single super phosphate respectively. Based on the measured activities, the radiological parameters (activity concentration index, absorbed gamma dose rate in outdoor and indoor and the corresponding annual effective dose rates and total excess lifetime cancer risk) were estimated to assess the radiological hazards. The total excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) has been calculated and found to be high in all samples, which related to high radioactivity, representing radiological risk for the health of the population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Racial/ethnic disparities in the lifetime risk of Chlamydia trachomatis diagnosis and adverse reproductive health outcomes among women in King County, Washington.

PubMed

Chambers, Laura C; Khosropour, Christine M; Katz, David A; Dombrowski, Julia C; Manhart, Lisa E; Golden, Matthew R

2018-02-06

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common reportable infection in the US and can cause pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and tubal factor infertility (TFI). We created lifetables to estimate the "lifetime" risk of chlamydia diagnosis among women age 15-34 in King County, Washington, US, 1992-2014. We estimated the lifetime risk of chlamydia-associated PID and TFI, incorporating published estimates of the risk of sequelae by chlamydia testing history. From 1992-2014, 51,464 first chlamydia diagnoses were reported among women age 15-34 in King County. For women born 1980-1984, the lifetime risk of chlamydia diagnosis was 19.8% overall and 14.0% for non-Hispanic white, 64.9% for non-Hispanic black, and 32.6% for Hispanic women. The cumulative risk of chlamydia by age 24 increased overall from 13.9% to 17.3% among birth cohorts born 1975-1994 but declined among non-Hispanic black women, among whom risk by age 24 peaked at 57.3% among women born 1980-1984 and declined to 38.6% among women born 1990-1994. The overall lifetime risk of chlamydia-associated PID among women born 1980-1984 ranged from 0.33-1.14%. Among non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic women, the lifetime risk of chlamydia-associated TFI was 0.04%, 0.20%, and 0.10%, respectively. The lifetime risk of chlamydia varies dramatically by race/ethnicity, with over 60% of non-Hispanic black women diagnosed with at least one infection by age 34 in the birth cohorts most affected, a risk almost five times that in non-Hispanic whites. An estimated one in 500 non-Hispanic black women develops chlamydia-associated TFI. More effective control measures are needed. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Measurement of the D(s)+ lifetime.

PubMed

Link, J M; Yager, P M; Anjos, J C; Bediaga, I; Castromonte, C; Machado, A A; Magnin, J; Massafferi, A; de Miranda, J M; Pepe, I M; Polycarpo, E; dos Reis, A C; Carrillo, S; Casimiro, E; Cuautle, E; Sánchez-Hernández, A; Uribe, C; Vázquez, F; Agostino, L; Cinquini, L; Cumalat, J P; O'Reilly, B; Segoni, I; Stenson, K; Butler, J N; Cheung, H W K; Chiodini, G; Gaines, I; Garbincius, P H; Garren, L A; Gottschalk, E; Kasper, P H; Kreymer, A E; Kutschke, R; Wang, M; Benussi, L; Bertani, M; Bianco, S; Fabbri, F L; Pacetti, S; Zallo, A; Reyes, M; Cawlfield, C; Kim, D Y; Rahimi, A; Wiss, J; Gardner, R; Kryemadhi, A; Chung, Y S; Kang, J S; Ko, B R; Kwak, J W; Lee, K B; Cho, K; Park, H; Alimonti, G; Barberis, S; Boschini, M; Cerutti, A; D'Angelo, P; DiCorato, M; Dini, P; Edera, L; Erba, S; Inzani, P; Leveraro, F; Malvezzi, S; Menasce, D; Mezzadri, M; Milazzo, L; Moroni, L; Pedrini, D; Pontoglio, C; Prelz, F; Rovere, M; Sala, S; Davenport, T F; Arena, V; Boca, G; Bonomi, G; Gianini, G; Liguori, G; Pegna, D Lopes; Merlo, M M; Pantea, D; Ratti, S P; Riccardi, C; Vitulo, P; Göbel, C; Hernandez, H; Lopez, A M; Mendez, H; Paris, A; Quinones, J; Ramirez, J E; Zhang, Y; Wilson, J R; Handler, T; Mitchell, R; Engh, D; Hosack, M; Johns, W E; Luiggi, E; Moore, J E; Nehring, M; Sheldon, P D; Vaandering, E W; Webster, M; Sheaff, M

2005-07-29

A high statistics measurement of the D(s)+ lifetime from the Fermilab fixed-target FOCUS photoproduction experiment is presented. We describe the analysis of the two decay modes, D(s)+ --> phi(1020)pi+ and D(s)+ -->K*(892)0K+, used for the measurement. The measured lifetime is 507.4 +/- 5.5(stat) +/- 5.1(syst) fs using 8961 +/- 105 D(s)+ --> phi(1020)pi+ and 4680 +/- 90 D(s)+ --> K*(892)0K+ decays. This is a significant improvement over the present world average.

Constraints on Water Reservoir Lifetimes From Catchment-Wide 10Be Erosion Rates—A Case Study From Western Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heineke, Caroline; Hetzel, Ralf; Akal, Cüneyt; Christl, Marcus

2017-11-01

The functionality and retention capacity of water reservoirs is generally impaired by upstream erosion and reservoir sedimentation, making a reliable assessment of erosion indispensable to estimate reservoir lifetimes. Widely used river gauging methods may underestimate sediment yield, because they do not record rare, high-magnitude events and may underestimate bed load transport. Hence, reservoir lifetimes calculated from short-term erosion rates should be regarded as maximum values. We propose that erosion rates from cosmogenic 10Be, which commonly integrate over hundreds to thousands of years, are useful to complement short-term sediment yield estimates and should be employed to estimate minimum reservoir lifetimes. Here we present 10Be erosion rates for the drainage basins of six water reservoirs in Western Turkey, which are located in a tectonically active region with easily erodible bedrock. Our 10Be erosion rates for these catchments are high, ranging from ˜170 to ˜1,040 t/km2/yr. When linked to reservoir volumes, they yield minimum reservoir lifetimes between 25 ± 5 and 1,650 ± 360 years until complete filling, with four reservoirs having minimum lifespans of ≤110 years. In a neighboring region with more resistant bedrock and less tectonic activity, we obtain much lower catchment-wide 10Be erosion rates of ˜33 to ˜95 t/km2/yr, illustrating that differences in lithology and tectonic boundary conditions can cause substantial variations in erosion even at a spatial scale of only ˜50 km. In conclusion, we suggest that both short-term sediment yield estimates and 10Be erosion rates should be employed to predict the lifetimes of reservoirs.

Cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor versus clopidogrel for the prevention of atherothrombotic events in adult patients with acute coronary syndrome in Germany.

PubMed

Theidel, Ulrike; Asseburg, Christian; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Katus, Hugo

2013-06-01

The aim of this health economic analysis was to compare the cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor versus clopidogrel within the German health care system. A two-part decision model was adapted to compare treatment with ticagrelor or clopidogrel in a low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) cohort (≤150 mg) for all ACS patients and subtypes NSTEMI/IA and STEMI. A decision-tree approach was chosen for the first year after initial hospitalization based on trial observations from a subgroup of the PLATO study. Subsequent years were estimated by a Markov model. Following a macro-costing approach, costs were based on official tariffs and published literature. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the model. One-year treatment with ticagrelor is associated with an estimated 0.1796 life-years gained (LYG) and gained 0.1570 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), respectively, over the lifetime horizon. Overall average cost with ticagrelor is estimated to be EUR 11,815 vs. EUR 11,387 with generic clopidogrel over a lifetime horizon. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was EUR 2,385 per LYG (EUR 2,728 per QALY). Comparing ticagrelor with Plavix(®) or the lowest priced generic clopidogrel, ICER ranges from dominant to EUR 3,118 per LYG (EUR 3,567 per QALY). These findings are robust under various additional sensitivity analyses. Hence, 12 months of ACS treatment using ticagrelor/ASA instead of clopidogrel/ASA may offer a cost-effective therapeutic option, even when the generic price for clopidogrel is employed.

R-134a emissions from vehicles.

PubMed

Siegl, W O; Wallington, T J; Guenther, M T; Henney, T; Pawlak, D; Duffy, M

2002-02-15

We report the first study of R-134a (also known as HFC-134a and CF3CFH2) refrigerant leakage from air conditioning (AC) systems of modern vehicles. Twenty-eight light duty vehicles from five manufacturers (Ford, Toyota, Daimler Chrysler, General Motors, and Honda) were tested according to the USEPA (Federal) extended diurnal test procedure using the Sealed Housing for Evaporative Determination (SHED) apparatus. All tests were conducted using stationary vehicles with the motor and air conditioning system turned off. R-134a was measured using gas chromatography (GC) with a flame ionization detector (FID). All vehicles exhibited measurable R-134a leakage over the 2-day diurnal test. Leak rates of R-134a ranged from 0.01 to 0.36 g/day with an average of 0.07+/-0.07 g/day. When combined with leakage associated with vehicle operation, servicing, and disposal we estimate that the lifetime average R-134a emission rate from an AC equipped vehicle is 0.41+/-0.27 g/day (the majority of emissions are associated with vehicle servicing and disposal). Assuming that the average vehicle travels 10 000 miles per year we estimate that the global warming impact of R-134a leakage from an AC equipped vehicle is approximately 4-5% of that of the CO2 emitted by the vehicle. The results are discussed with respect to the contribution of vehicle emissions to global climate change.

Emissions of nitrogen oxides from US urban areas: estimation from Ozone Monitoring Instrument retrievals for 2005-2014

DOE PAGES

Lu, Z.; Streets, D. G.; de Foy, B.; ...

2015-05-28

Satellite remote sensing of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) can provide valuable information for estimating surface nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions. Using an exponentially-modified Gaussian (EMG) method and taking into account the effect of wind on observed NO 2 distributions, we estimate three-year moving-average emissions of summertime NO x from 35 US urban areas directly from NO 2 retrievals of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during 2005–2014. Following the conclusions of previous studies that the EMG method provides robust and accurate emission estimates under strong-wind conditions, we derive top-down NO x emissions from each urban area by applying the EMGmore » method to OMI data with wind speeds greater than 3–5 m s -1. Meanwhile, we find that OMI NO 2 observations under weak-wind conditions (i.e., < 3 m s -1) are qualitatively better correlated with the surface NO x source strength in comparison to all-wind OMI maps; and therefore we use them to calculate the satellite-observed NO 2 burdens of urban areas and compare with NO x emission estimates. The EMG results show that OMI-derived NO x emissions are highly correlated ( R > 0.93) with weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens as well as bottom-up NO x emission estimates over 35 urban areas, implying a linear response of the OMI observations to surface emissions under weak-wind conditions. The simultaneous, EMG-obtained, effective NO 2 lifetimes (~3.5 ± 1.3 h), however, are biased low in comparison to the summertime NO 2 chemical lifetimes. In general, isolated urban areas with NO x emission intensities greater than ~ 2 Mg h -1 produce statistically significant weak-wind signals in three-year average OMI data. From 2005 to 2014, we estimate that total OMI-derived NO x emissions over all selected US urban areas decreased by 49%, consistent with reductions of 43, 47, 49, and 44% in the total bottom-up NO x emissions, the sum of weak-wind OMI NO 2 columns, the total weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and the averaged NO 2 concentrations, respectively, reflecting the success of NO x control programs for both mobile sources and power plants. The decrease rates of these NO x-related quantities are found to be faster (i.e., -6.8 to -9.3% yr -1) before 2010 and slower (i.e., -3.4 to -4.9% yr -1) after 2010. For individual urban areas, we calculate the R values of pair-wise trends among the OMI-derived and bottom-up NO x emissions, the weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and ground-based NO 2 measurements; and high correlations are found for all urban areas (median R = 0.8), particularly large ones ( R up to 0.97). The results of the current work indicate that using the EMG method and considering the wind effect, the OMI data allow for the estimation of NO x emissions from urban areas and the direct constraint of emission trends with reasonable accuracy.« less

Emissions of nitrogen oxides from US urban areas: estimation from Ozone Monitoring Instrument retrievals for 2005–2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Z.; Streets, D. G.; de Foy, B.

Satellite remote sensing of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) can provide valuable information for estimating surface nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions. Using an exponentially modified Gaussian (EMG) method and taking into account the effect of wind on observed NO 2 distributions, we estimate 3-year moving-average emissions of summertime NO x from 35 US (United States) urban areas directly from NO 2 retrievals of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during 2005–2014. Following conclusions of previous studies that the EMG method provides robust and accurate emission estimates under strong-wind conditions, we derive top-down NO x emissions from each urban area by applyingmore » the EMG method to OMI data with wind speeds greater than 3–5 m s -1. Meanwhile, we find that OMI NO 2 observations under weak-wind conditions (i.e., < 3 m s −1) are qualitatively better correlated to the surface NO x source strength in comparison to all-wind OMI maps; therefore, we use them to calculate the satellite-observed NO 2 burdens of urban areas and compare with NO x emission estimates. The EMG results show that OMI-derived NO x emissions are highly correlated ( R > 0.93) with weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens as well as with bottom-up NO x emission estimates over 35 urban areas, implying a linear response of the OMI observations to surface emissions under weak-wind conditions. The simultaneous EMG-obtained effective NO 2 lifetimes (~ 3.5 ± 1.3 h), however, are biased low in comparison to the summertime NO 2 chemical lifetimes. In general, isolated urban areas with NO x emission intensities greater than ~ 2 Mg h -1 produce statistically significant weak-wind signals in 3-year average OMI data. From 2005 to 2014, we estimate that total OMI-derived NO x emissions over all selected US urban areas decreased by 49 %, consistent with reductions of 43, 47, 49, and 44 % in the total bottom-up NO x emissions, the sum of weak-wind OMI NO 2 columns, the total weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and the averaged NO 2 concentrations, respectively, reflecting the success of NO x control programs for both mobile sources and power plants. The decrease rates of these NO x-related quantities are found to be faster (i.e., -6.8 to -9.3 % yr −1) before 2010 and slower (i.e., -3.4 to -4.9 % yr −1) after 2010. For individual urban areas, we calculate the R values of pair-wise trends among the OMI-derived and bottom-up NO x emissions, the weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and ground-based NO 2 measurements, and high correlations are found for all urban areas (median R= 0.8), particularly large ones ( R up to 0.97). The results of the current work indicate that using the EMG method and considering the wind effect, the OMI data allow for the estimation of NO x emissions from urban areas and the direct constraint of emission trends with reasonable accuracy.« less

Emissions of nitrogen oxides from US urban areas: estimation from Ozone Monitoring Instrument retrievals for 2005-2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Z.; Streets, D. G.; de Foy, B.

Satellite remote sensing of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) can provide valuable information for estimating surface nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions. Using an exponentially-modified Gaussian (EMG) method and taking into account the effect of wind on observed NO 2 distributions, we estimate three-year moving-average emissions of summertime NO x from 35 US urban areas directly from NO 2 retrievals of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during 2005–2014. Following the conclusions of previous studies that the EMG method provides robust and accurate emission estimates under strong-wind conditions, we derive top-down NO x emissions from each urban area by applying the EMGmore » method to OMI data with wind speeds greater than 3–5 m s -1. Meanwhile, we find that OMI NO 2 observations under weak-wind conditions (i.e., < 3 m s -1) are qualitatively better correlated with the surface NO x source strength in comparison to all-wind OMI maps; and therefore we use them to calculate the satellite-observed NO 2 burdens of urban areas and compare with NO x emission estimates. The EMG results show that OMI-derived NO x emissions are highly correlated ( R > 0.93) with weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens as well as bottom-up NO x emission estimates over 35 urban areas, implying a linear response of the OMI observations to surface emissions under weak-wind conditions. The simultaneous, EMG-obtained, effective NO 2 lifetimes (~3.5 ± 1.3 h), however, are biased low in comparison to the summertime NO 2 chemical lifetimes. In general, isolated urban areas with NO x emission intensities greater than ~ 2 Mg h -1 produce statistically significant weak-wind signals in three-year average OMI data. From 2005 to 2014, we estimate that total OMI-derived NO x emissions over all selected US urban areas decreased by 49%, consistent with reductions of 43, 47, 49, and 44% in the total bottom-up NO x emissions, the sum of weak-wind OMI NO 2 columns, the total weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and the averaged NO 2 concentrations, respectively, reflecting the success of NO x control programs for both mobile sources and power plants. The decrease rates of these NO x-related quantities are found to be faster (i.e., -6.8 to -9.3% yr -1) before 2010 and slower (i.e., -3.4 to -4.9% yr -1) after 2010. For individual urban areas, we calculate the R values of pair-wise trends among the OMI-derived and bottom-up NO x emissions, the weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and ground-based NO 2 measurements; and high correlations are found for all urban areas (median R = 0.8), particularly large ones ( R up to 0.97). The results of the current work indicate that using the EMG method and considering the wind effect, the OMI data allow for the estimation of NO x emissions from urban areas and the direct constraint of emission trends with reasonable accuracy.« less

Global atmospheric concentrations and source strength of ethane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blake, D. R.; Rowland, F. S.

1986-01-01

A study of the variation in ethane (C2H6) concentration between northern and southern latitudes over three years is presented together with a new estimate of its source strength. Ethane concentrations vary from 0.07 to 2 p.p.b.v. (parts per billion by volume) in air samples collected in remote surface locations in the Pacific (latitude 71 N-47 S) in all four seasons between September 1984 and June 1985. The variations are consistent with southerly transport from sources located chiefly in the Northern Hemisphere, further modified by seasonal variations in the strength of the reaction of C2H6 with OH radicals. These global data can be combined with concurrent data for CH4 and the laboratory reaction rates of each with OH to provide an estimate of three months as the average atmospheric lifetime for C2H6 and 13 + or - 3 Mtons for its annual atmospheric release.

Study on constant-step stress accelerated life tests in white organic light-emitting diodes.

PubMed

Zhang, J P; Liu, C; Chen, X; Cheng, G L; Zhou, A X

2014-11-01

In order to obtain reliability information for a white organic light-emitting diode (OLED), two constant and one step stress tests were conducted with its working current increased. The Weibull function was applied to describe the OLED life distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and its iterative flow chart were used to calculate shape and scale parameters. Furthermore, the accelerated life equation was determined using the least squares method, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to assess if the white OLED life follows a Weibull distribution, and self-developed software was used to predict the average and the median lifetimes of the OLED. The numerical results indicate that white OLED life conforms to a Weibull distribution, and that the accelerated life equation completely satisfies the inverse power law. The estimated life of a white OLED may provide significant guidelines for its manufacturers and customers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lifetime Reliability Evaluation of Structural Ceramic Parts with the CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), Weibull's normal stress averaging method (NSA), or Batdorf's theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating cyclic fatigue parameter estimation and component reliability analysis with proof testing are included.

The fiscal consequences of ADHD in Germany: a quantitative analysis based on differences in educational attainment and lifetime earnings.

PubMed

Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Connolly, Mark P; Sobanski, Esther; Postma, Maarten J

2013-03-01

To estimate the long-term fiscal consequences of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) on the German government and social insurance system based on differences in educational attainment and the resulting differences in lifetime earnings compared with non-ADHD cohorts. Differences in educational attainment between ADHD and non-ADHD cohorts were linked to education-specific earnings data. Direct and indirect tax rates and social insurance contributions were linked to differences in lifetime, education-specific earnings to derive lost tax revenue in Germany associated with ADHD. For ADHD and non-ADHD cohorts we derived the age-specific discounted net taxes paid by deducting lifetime transfers from lifetime gross taxes paid. The lifetime net tax revenue for a non-ADHD individual was approximately EUR 80,000 higher compared to an untreated ADHD individual. The fiscal burden of untreated ADHD, based on a cohort of n=31,844 born in 2010, was estimated at EUR 2.5 billion in net tax revenue losses compared with an equally-sized non-ADHD cohort. ADHD interventions providing a small improvement in educational attainment resulted in fiscal benefits from increases in lifetime tax gains. ADHD results in long-term financial loss due to lower education attainment and lifetime reduced earnings and resulting lifetime taxes and social contributions paid. Investments in ADHD interventions allowing more children to achieve their educational potential may offer fiscal benefits generating a positive rate of return.

Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Lars; Hoppe, Charlotte; Müller, Rolf; Dutton, Geoffrey S.; Gille, John C.; Griessbach, Sabine; Jones, Ashley; Meyer, Catrin I.; Spang, Reinhold; Volk, C. Michael; Walker, Kaley A.

2015-04-01

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present new estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47 ± 0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96 - 133) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46 ± 0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97 - 134) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46 ± 0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98 - 136) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46 ± 0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103 - 124) yr. These results are in excellent agreement with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43 - 67) yr for CFC-11 and 102(88 - 122) yr for CFC-12, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled EMAC/CLaMS model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48 ± 0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95 - 129) yr, based on a ten-year perpetual run. Closely reproducing the satellite observations, the new model system will likely become a useful tool to assess the impact of advective transport, mixing, and photochemistry as well as climatological variability on the stratospheric lifetimes of long-lived tracers. Reference: Hoffmann, L., Hoppe, C. M., Müller, R., Dutton, G. S., Gille, J. C., Griessbach, S., Jones, A., Meyer, C. I., Spang, R., Volk, C. M., and Walker, K. A.: Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12479-12497, doi:10.5194/acp-14-12479-2014, 2014.

Temporal binning of time-correlated single photon counting data improves exponential decay fits and imaging speed

PubMed Central

Walsh, Alex J.; Sharick, Joe T.; Skala, Melissa C.; Beier, Hope T.

2016-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting (TCSPC) enables acquisition of fluorescence lifetime decays with high temporal resolution within the fluorescence decay. However, many thousands of photons per pixel are required for accurate lifetime decay curve representation, instrument response deconvolution, and lifetime estimation, particularly for two-component lifetimes. TCSPC imaging speed is inherently limited due to the single photon per laser pulse nature and low fluorescence event efficiencies (<10%) required to reduce bias towards short lifetimes. Here, simulated fluorescence lifetime decays are analyzed by SPCImage and SLIM Curve software to determine the limiting lifetime parameters and photon requirements of fluorescence lifetime decays that can be accurately fit. Data analysis techniques to improve fitting accuracy for low photon count data were evaluated. Temporal binning of the decays from 256 time bins to 42 time bins significantly (p<0.0001) improved fit accuracy in SPCImage and enabled accurate fits with low photon counts (as low as 700 photons/decay), a 6-fold reduction in required photons and therefore improvement in imaging speed. Additionally, reducing the number of free parameters in the fitting algorithm by fixing the lifetimes to known values significantly reduced the lifetime component error from 27.3% to 3.2% in SPCImage (p<0.0001) and from 50.6% to 4.2% in SLIM Curve (p<0.0001). Analysis of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide–lactate dehydrogenase (NADH-LDH) solutions confirmed temporal binning of TCSPC data and a reduced number of free parameters improves exponential decay fit accuracy in SPCImage. Altogether, temporal binning (in SPCImage) and reduced free parameters are data analysis techniques that enable accurate lifetime estimation from low photon count data and enable TCSPC imaging speeds up to 6x and 300x faster, respectively, than traditional TCSPC analysis. PMID:27446663

National Estimates of Recovery-Remission From Serious Mental Illness.

PubMed

Salzer, Mark S; Brusilovskiy, Eugene; Townley, Greg

2018-05-01

A broad range of estimates of recovery among previously institutionalized persons has been reported, but no current, community-based national estimate of recovery from serious mental illness exists. This study reports recovery rate results, based on a remission definition, and explores related demographic factors. A national, geographically stratified, and random cross-sectional survey conducted from September 2014 to December 2015 resulted in responses from more than 41,000 individuals. Lifetime prevalence of serious mental illness was assessed by asking about receipt of a diagnosis (major depression, bipolar disorder, manic depression, and schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder) and hospitalization and impairment associated with the diagnosis. Recovery was determined by asking about impairments over the past 12 months. Almost 17% reported receiving one of the diagnoses in their lifetime, 6% had a lifetime rate of a serious mental illness, and nearly 4% continued to experience interference associated with serious mental illness. One-third of those with a lifetime serious mental illness reported having been in remission for at least the past 12 months. Recovery rates were low until age 32 and then progressively increased. Lifetime estimates of diagnosed illness and current prevalence of serious mental illness are consistent with previous research. Results indicate that recovery is possible and is associated with age. Further research is needed to understand factors that promote recovery, and sustained evaluation efforts using similar parsimonious approaches may be useful in conducting timely assessments of national and local mental health policies.

Disinfection Byproducts in Drinking Water and Evaluation of Potential Health Risks of Long-Term Exposure in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Akintokun, Oyeronke A.; Adedapo, Adebusayo E.

2017-01-01

Levels of trihalomethanes (THMs) in drinking water from water treatment plants (WTPs) in Nigeria were studied using a gas chromatograph (GC Agilent 7890A with autosampler Agilent 7683B) equipped with electron capture detector (ECD). The mean concentrations of the trihalomethanes ranged from zero in raw water samples to 950 μg/L in treated water samples. Average concentration values of THMs in primary and secondary disinfection samples exceeded the standard maximum contaminant levels. Results for the average THMs concentrations followed the order TCM > BDCM > DBCM > TBM. EPA-developed models were adopted for the estimation of chronic daily intakes (CDI) and excess cancer incidence through ingestion pathway. Higher average intake was observed in adults (4.52 × 10−2 mg/kg-day), while the ingestion in children (3.99 × 10−2 mg/kg-day) showed comparable values. The total lifetime cancer incidence rate was relatively higher in adults than children with median values 244 and 199 times the negligible risk level. PMID:28900447

Neutron Lifetime and Axial Coupling Connection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Czarnecki, Andrzej; Marciano, William J.; Sirlin, Alberto

Here, experimental studies of neutron decay, n→pe¯ν, exhibit two anomalies. The first is a 8.6(2.1) s, roughly 4σ difference between the average beam measured neutron lifetime, τ beam n = 888.0(2.0) s, and the more precise average trapped ultracold neutron determination, τ trap n = 879.4(6) s. The second is a 5σ difference between the pre2002 average axial coupling, gA, as measured in neutron decay asymmetries g pre2002 A = 1.2637(21), and the more recent, post2002, average g post2002 A = 1.2755(11), where, following the UCNA Collaboration division, experiments are classified by the date of their most recent result. Inmore » this Letter, we correlate those τ n and g A values using a (slightly) updated relation τ n(1+3g 2 A) = 5172.0(1.1) s. Consistency with that relation and better precision suggest τ favored n = 879.4(6) s and g favored A = 1.2755(11) as preferred values for those parameters. Comparisons of g favored A with recent lattice QCD and muonic hydrogen capture results are made. A general constraint on exotic neutron decay branching ratios, <0.27%, is discussed and applied to a recently proposed solution to the neutron lifetime puzzle.« less

Neutron Lifetime and Axial Coupling Connection

DOE PAGES

Czarnecki, Andrzej; Marciano, William J.; Sirlin, Alberto

2018-05-16

Here, experimental studies of neutron decay, n→pe¯ν, exhibit two anomalies. The first is a 8.6(2.1) s, roughly 4σ difference between the average beam measured neutron lifetime, τ beam n = 888.0(2.0) s, and the more precise average trapped ultracold neutron determination, τ trap n = 879.4(6) s. The second is a 5σ difference between the pre2002 average axial coupling, gA, as measured in neutron decay asymmetries g pre2002 A = 1.2637(21), and the more recent, post2002, average g post2002 A = 1.2755(11), where, following the UCNA Collaboration division, experiments are classified by the date of their most recent result. Inmore » this Letter, we correlate those τ n and g A values using a (slightly) updated relation τ n(1+3g 2 A) = 5172.0(1.1) s. Consistency with that relation and better precision suggest τ favored n = 879.4(6) s and g favored A = 1.2755(11) as preferred values for those parameters. Comparisons of g favored A with recent lattice QCD and muonic hydrogen capture results are made. A general constraint on exotic neutron decay branching ratios, <0.27%, is discussed and applied to a recently proposed solution to the neutron lifetime puzzle.« less

Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

2017-12-01

Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

Estimated Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Health Risks for the Citizens of Fukushima City, Tokyo, and Osaka after the 2011 Nuclear Accident

PubMed Central

Murakami, Michio; Oki, Taikan

2014-01-01

The radionuclides released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 pose a health risk. In this study, we estimated the 1st-year average doses resulting from the intake of iodine 131 (131I) and cesium 134 and 137 (134Cs and 137Cs) in drinking water and food ingested by citizens of Fukushima City (∼50 km from the nuclear power plant; outside the evacuation zone), Tokyo (∼230 km), and Osaka (∼580 km) after the accident. For citizens in Fukushima City, we considered two scenarios: Case 1, citizens consumed vegetables bought from markets; Case 2, citizens consumed vegetables grown locally (conservative scenario). The estimated effective doses of 134Cs and 137Cs agreed well with those estimated through market basket and food-duplicate surveys. The average thyroid equivalent doses due to ingestion of 131I for adults were 840 µSv (Case 1) and 2700 µSv (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 370 µSv in Tokyo, and 16 µSv in Osaka. The average effective doses due to 134Cs and 137Cs were 19, 120, 6.1, and 1.9 µSv, respectively. The doses estimated in this study were much lower than values reported by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, whose assessments lacked validation and full consideration of regional trade in foods, highlighting the importance of including regional trade. The 95th percentile effective doses were 2–3 times the average values. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 2.3–39×10−6 (Case 1) and 10–98×10−6 (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 0.95–14×10−6 in Tokyo, and 0.11–1.3×10−6 in Osaka. The contributions of LARs of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 7.5%–12% of all exposure (Case 1) and 12%–30% (Case 2) in Fukushima City. PMID:25390339

Distribution of lifetimes for coronal soft X-ray bright points

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, L.; Krieger, A. S.; Vaiana, G. S.

1976-01-01

The lifetime 'spectrum' of X-ray bright points (XBPs) is measured for a sample of 300 such features using soft X-ray images obtained with the S-054 X-ray spectrographic telescope aboard Skylab. 'Spectrum' here is defined as a function which gives the relative number of XBPs having a specific lifetime as a function of lifetime. The results indicate that a two-lifetime exponential can be fit to the decay curves of XBPs, that the spectrum is heavily weighted toward short lifetimes, and that the number of features lasting 20 to 30 hr or more is greater than expected. A short-lived component with an average lifetime of about 8 hr and a long-lived 1.5-day component are consistently found along with a few features lasting 50 hr or more. An examination of differences among the components shows that features lasting 2 days or less have a broad heliocentric-latitude distribution while nearly all the longer-lived features are observed within 30 deg of the solar equator.

Derivation of the collision probability between orbiting objects The lifetimes of Jupiter's outer moons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, D. J.

1981-01-01

A general form is derived for Opik's equations relating to the probability of collision between two orbiting objects to their orbital elements, and used to determine the collisional lifetime of the eight outer moons of Jupiter. The derivation is based on a concept of spatial density, or average number of objects found in a unit volume, and results in a set of equations that are easily applied to a variety of orbital collision problems. When applied to the outer satellites, which are all in irregular orbits, the equations predict a relatively long collisional lifetime for the four retrograde moons (about 270 billon years on the average) and a shorter time for the four posigrade moons (0.9 billion years). This short time is suggestive of a past collision history, and may account for the orbiting dust detected by Pioneers 10 and 11.

Lifetime Effective Dose Assessment Based on Background Outdoor Gamma Exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico

PubMed Central

Luevano-Gurrola, Sergio; Perez-Tapia, Angelica; Pinedo-Alvarez, Carmelo; Carrillo-Flores, Jorge; Montero-Cabrera, Maria Elena; Renteria-Villalobos, Marusia

2015-01-01

Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on a population’s health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected in Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Müller counter. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 113 to 310 nGy·h−1. At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K and to calculate their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Calculated gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 nGy·h−1. Results indicated that the lifetime effective dose of the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is on average 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of the activity concentrations in soil were 52, 73 and 1097 Bq·kg−1, for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K, respectively. From the analysis, the spatial distribution of 232Th, 226Ra and 40K is to the north, to the north-center and to the south of city, respectively. In conclusion, the natural background gamma dose received by the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to the geological characteristics of the zone. From the radiological point of view, this kind of study allows us to identify the importance of manmade environments, which are often highly variable and difficult to characterize. PMID:26437425

Estimating lifetime healthcare costs with morbidity data.

PubMed

Carreras, Marc; Ibern, Pere; Coderch, Jordi; Sánchez, Inma; Inoriza, Jose M

2013-10-25

In many developed countries, the economic crisis started in 2008 producing a serious contraction of the financial resources spent on healthcare. Identifying which individuals will require more resources and the moment in their lives these resources have to be allocated becomes essential. It is well known that a small number of individuals with complex healthcare needs consume a high percentage of health expenditures. Conversely, little is known on how morbidity evolves throughout life. The aim of this study is to introduce a longitudinal perspective to chronic disease management. Data used relate to the population of the county of Baix Empordà in Catalonia for the period 2004-2007 (average population was N = 88,858). The database included individual information on morbidity, resource consumption, costs and activity records. The population was classified using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG) model. Future morbidity evolution was simulated under different assumptions using a stationary Markov chain. We obtained morbidity patterns for the lifetime and the distribution function of the random variable lifetime costs. Individual information on acute episodes, chronic conditions and multimorbidity patterns were included in the model. The probability of having a specific health status in the future (healthy, acute process or different combinations of chronic illness) and the distribution function of healthcare costs for the individual lifetime were obtained for the sample population. The mean lifetime cost for women was €111,936, a third higher than for men, at €81,566 (all amounts calculated in 2007 Euros). Healthy life expectancy at birth for females was 46.99, lower than for males (50.22). Females also spent 28.41 years of life suffering from some type of chronic disease, a longer period than men (21.9). Future morbidity and whole population costs can be reasonably predicted, combining stochastic microsimulation with a morbidity classification system. Potential ways of efficiency arose by introducing a time perspective to chronic disease management.

Estimating lifetime healthcare costs with morbidity data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In many developed countries, the economic crisis started in 2008 producing a serious contraction of the financial resources spent on healthcare. Identifying which individuals will require more resources and the moment in their lives these resources have to be allocated becomes essential. It is well known that a small number of individuals with complex healthcare needs consume a high percentage of health expenditures. Conversely, little is known on how morbidity evolves throughout life. The aim of this study is to introduce a longitudinal perspective to chronic disease management. Methods Data used relate to the population of the county of Baix Empordà in Catalonia for the period 2004–2007 (average population was N = 88,858). The database included individual information on morbidity, resource consumption, costs and activity records. The population was classified using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG) model. Future morbidity evolution was simulated under different assumptions using a stationary Markov chain. We obtained morbidity patterns for the lifetime and the distribution function of the random variable lifetime costs. Individual information on acute episodes, chronic conditions and multimorbidity patterns were included in the model. Results The probability of having a specific health status in the future (healthy, acute process or different combinations of chronic illness) and the distribution function of healthcare costs for the individual lifetime were obtained for the sample population. The mean lifetime cost for women was €111,936, a third higher than for men, at €81,566 (all amounts calculated in 2007 Euros). Healthy life expectancy at birth for females was 46.99, lower than for males (50.22). Females also spent 28.41 years of life suffering from some type of chronic disease, a longer period than men (21.9). Conclusions Future morbidity and whole population costs can be reasonably predicted, combining stochastic microsimulation with a morbidity classification system. Potential ways of efficiency arose by introducing a time perspective to chronic disease management. PMID:24156613

Lifetime Effective Dose Assessment Based on Background Outdoor Gamma Exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico.

PubMed

Luevano-Gurrola, Sergio; Perez-Tapia, Angelica; Pinedo-Alvarez, Carmelo; Carrillo-Flores, Jorge; Montero-Cabrera, Maria Elena; Renteria-Villalobos, Marusia

2015-09-30

Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on a population's health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected in Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Müller counter. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 113 to 310 nGy·h(-1). At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of (226)Ra, (232)Th and (40)K and to calculate their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Calculated gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 nGy·h(-1). Results indicated that the lifetime effective dose of the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is on average 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of the activity concentrations in soil were 52, 73 and 1097 Bq·kg(-1), for (226)Ra, (232)Th and (40)K, respectively. From the analysis, the spatial distribution of (232)Th, (226)Ra and (40)K is to the north, to the north-center and to the south of city, respectively. In conclusion, the natural background gamma dose received by the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to the geological characteristics of the zone. From the radiological point of view, this kind of study allows us to identify the importance of manmade environments, which are often highly variable and difficult to characterize.

Theoretical investigation on the mass loss impact on asteroseismic grid-based estimates of mass, radius, and age for RGB stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

2018-01-01

Aims: We aim to perform a theoretical evaluation of the impact of the mass loss indetermination on asteroseismic grid based estimates of masses, radii, and ages of stars in the red giant branch (RGB) phase. Methods: We adopted the SCEPtER pipeline on a grid spanning the mass range [0.8; 1.8] M⊙. As observational constraints, we adopted the star effective temperatures, the metallicity [Fe/H], the average large frequency spacing Δν, and the frequency of maximum oscillation power νmax. The mass loss was modelled following a Reimers parametrization with the two different efficiencies η = 0.4 and η = 0.8. Results: In the RGB phase, the average random relative error (owing only to observational uncertainty) on mass and age estimates is about 8% and 30% respectively. The bias in mass and age estimates caused by the adoption of a wrong mass loss parameter in the recovery is minor for the vast majority of the RGB evolution. The biases get larger only after the RGB bump. In the last 2.5% of the RGB lifetime the error on the mass determination reaches 6.5% becoming larger than the random error component in this evolutionary phase. The error on the age estimate amounts to 9%, that is, equal to the random error uncertainty. These results are independent of the stellar metallicity [Fe/H] in the explored range. Conclusions: Asteroseismic-based estimates of stellar mass, radius, and age in the RGB phase can be considered mass loss independent within the range (η ∈ [0.0,0.8]) as long as the target is in an evolutionary phase preceding the RGB bump.

Incidence of ovarian cancer after hysterectomy: a nationwide controlled follow up.

PubMed

Loft, A; Lidegaard, O; Tabor, A

1997-11-01

To estimate the risk of developing ovarian cancer after abdominal (total or subtotal) hysterectomy on benign indication. Prospective historical cohort study with 12.5 years of follow up. Denmark, nationwide. All Danish women (aged 0 to 99 years) having undergone hysterectomy with conservation of at least one ovary for a benign indication from 1977 to 1981 (n = 22,135). Follow up was conducted from 1977 to 1991. The reference group included all Danish women who had not undergone hysterectomy, age-standardised according to the hysterectomy group (n = 2,554,872). Registry data derived from the Danish National Register of Patients (diagnoses and operation codes) and the Civil Registration System (information about general population, including time of death). Incidence rate of ovarian cancer, lifetime risk of ovarian cancer, relative risk of ovarian cancer. Seventy-one women developed ovarian cancer on average 7.0 years after hysterectomy and 10,659 women in the reference group had ovarian cancer diagnosed after on average 6.4 years. The incidence rate of ovarian cancer was 0.27 per 1000 person-years in the group that had undergone hysterectomy and 0.34 per 1000 person-years in the general population (age-standardised). The extrapolated lifetime risk of developing ovarian cancer was 2.1% after hysterectomy and 2.7% in the general population (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.60-0.96). The risk of ovarian cancer is lower among women who have undergone hysterectomy compared with those who have not. The protection seems to decrease with time.

Probabilistic risk assessment of exposure to leucomalachite green residues from fish products.

PubMed

Chu, Yung-Lin; Chimeddulam, Dalaijamts; Sheen, Lee-Yan; Wu, Kuen-Yuh

2013-12-01

To assess the potential risk of human exposure to carcinogenic leucomalachite green (LMG) due to fish consumption, the probabilistic risk assessment was conducted for adolescent, adult and senior adult consumers in Taiwan. The residues of LMG with the mean concentration of 13.378±20.56 μg kg(-1) (BFDA, 2009) in fish was converted into dose, considering fish intake reported for three consumer groups by NAHSIT (1993-1996) and body weight of an average individual of the group. The lifetime average and high 95th percentile dietary intakes of LMG from fish consumption for Taiwanese consumers were estimated at up to 0.0135 and 0.0451 μg kg-bw(-1) day(-1), respectively. Human equivalent dose (HED) of 2.875 mg kg-bw(-1) day(-1) obtained from a lower-bound benchmark dose (BMDL10) in mice by interspecies extrapolation was linearly extrapolated to oral cancer slope factor (CSF) of 0.035 (mgkg-bw(-1)day(-1))(-1) for humans. Although, the assumptions and methods are different, the results of lifetime cancer risk varying from 3×10(-7) to 1.6×10(-6) were comparable to those of margin of exposures (MOEs) varying from 410,000 to 4,800,000. In conclusions, Taiwanese fish consumers with the 95th percentile LADD of LMG have greater risk of liver cancer and need to an action of risk management in Taiwan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among men who have sex with men: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Luo, Zhenzhou; Feng, Tiejian; Fu, Hanlin; Yang, Tubao

2017-12-21

Suicide is a leading cause of death among men who have sex with men (MSM) and suicidal ideation may put individuals at higher risk of suicide. A great disparity of lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among MSM was observed across studies, indicating the importance of a reliable estimation of the pooled lifetime prevalence. However, the only one published meta-analysis estimating the pooled lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among MSM was conducted in 2008 with only 2 eligible studies. Subsequently, there was a rapid increase of publications about lifetime suicidal ideation among MSM, suggesting that an update on the pooled lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among MSM was necessary. Therefore, this study aimed to update the estimation of the pooled lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among MSM. Electronic databases of PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus (social science), Embase and PsycInfo were searched until September 2017 to identify relevant studies. Cross-sectional studies exploring the lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among MSM were enrolled. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the Cochran Q test and quantified using the I 2 statistic. The possibility of publication bias was assessed using both Begg's rank test and Egger's linear test, and an Egger's funnel plot for asymmetry was presented. Subgroup analyses were performed according to the geographic area, sample source and HIV status. Nineteen studies with a total of 26,667 MSM were included, of which 9374 were identified with suicidal ideation. A high degree of heterogeneity (P ≤ 0.001, I 2 =99.2%) was observed among the eligible studies, with the reported prevalence ranging from 13.18 to 55.80%. The pooled lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among MSM by a random effects model was 34.97% (95% confidence interval: 28.35%-41.90%). Both the Begg's rank test and Egger's linear test indicated low possibility of publication bias. Subgroup analyses showed that the lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among MSM differed significantly by geographic area, sample source and HIV status (P < 0.05). The high pooled lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among MSM found in this meta-analysis significantly underscores the importance of early assessment of suicidal ideation among MSM, as well as the need for strengthening the psychological interventions.

The Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey. XIV. Physical Properties of Massive Starless and Star-forming Clumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoboda, Brian E.; Shirley, Yancy L.; Battersby, Cara; Rosolowsky, Erik W.; Ginsburg, Adam G.; Ellsworth-Bowers, Timothy P.; Pestalozzi, Michele R.; Dunham, Miranda K.; Evans, Neal J., II; Bally, John; Glenn, Jason

2016-05-01

We sort 4683 molecular clouds between 10° < ℓ < 65° from the Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey based on observational diagnostics of star formation activity: compact 70 μm sources, mid-IR color-selected YSOs, H2O and CH3OH masers, and UCH II regions. We also present a combined NH3-derived gas kinetic temperature and H2O maser catalog for 1788 clumps from our own GBT 100 m observations and from the literature. We identify a subsample of 2223 (47.5%) starless clump candidates (SCCs), the largest and most robust sample identified from a blind survey to date. Distributions of flux density, flux concentration, solid angle, kinetic temperature, column density, radius, and mass show strong (>1 dex) progressions when sorted by star formation indicator. The median SCC is marginally subvirial (α ˜ 0.7) with >75% of clumps with known distance being gravitationally bound (α < 2). These samples show a statistically significant increase in the median clump mass of ΔM ˜ 170-370 M ⊙ from the starless candidates to clumps associated with protostars. This trend could be due to (I) mass growth of the clumps at \\dot{M}˜ 200{--}440 M ⊙ Myr-1 for an average freefall 0.8 Myr timescale, (II) a systematic factor of two increase in dust opacity from starless to protostellar phases, and/or (III) a variation in the ratio of starless to protostellar clump lifetime that scales as ˜M -0.4. By comparing to the observed number of CH3OH maser containing clumps, we estimate the phase lifetime of massive (M > 103 M ⊙) starless clumps to be 0.37 ± 0.08 Myr (M/103 M ⊙)-1 the majority (M < 450 M ⊙) have phase lifetimes longer than their average freefall time.

Fluid-structure interaction analysis and lifetime estimation of a natural gas pipeline centrifugal compressor under near-choke and near-surge conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Yaping; Liu, Hui; Yao, Ziyun; Xing, Peng; Zhang, Chuhua

2015-11-01

Up to present, there have been no studies concerning the application of fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis to the lifetime estimation of multi-stage centrifugal compressors under dangerous unsteady aerodynamic excitations. In this paper, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of a three-stage natural gas pipeline centrifugal compressor are performed under near-choke and near-surge conditions, and the unsteady aerodynamic pressure acting on impeller blades are obtained. Then computational structural dynamics (CSD) analysis is conducted through a one-way coupling FSI model to predict alternating stresses in impeller blades. Finally, the compressor lifetime is estimated using the nominal stress approach. The FSI results show that the impellers of latter stages suffer larger fluctuation stresses but smaller mean stresses than those at preceding stages under near-choke and near-surge conditions. The most dangerous position in the compressor is found to be located near the leading edge of the last-stage impeller blade. Compressor lifetime estimation shows that the investigated compressor can run up to 102.7 h under the near-choke condition and 200.2 h under the near-surge condition. This study is expected to provide a scientific guidance for the operation safety of natural gas pipeline centrifugal compressors.

Global warming potential estimates for the C1-C3 hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) included in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papanastasiou, Dimitrios K.; Beltrone, Allison; Marshall, Paul; Burkholder, James B.

2018-05-01

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases that are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, the majority of the 274 HCFCs included in Annex C of the protocol do not have reported global warming potentials (GWPs) which are used to guide the phaseout of HCFCs and the future phase down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In this study, GWPs for all C1-C3 HCFCs included in Annex C are reported based on estimated atmospheric lifetimes and theoretical methods used to calculate infrared absorption spectra. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated from a structure activity relationship (SAR) for OH radical reactivity and estimated O(1D) reactivity and UV photolysis loss processes. The C1-C3 HCFCs display a wide range of lifetimes (0.3 to 62 years) and GWPs (5 to 5330, 100-year time horizon) dependent on their molecular structure and the H-atom content of the individual HCFC. The results from this study provide estimated policy-relevant GWP metrics for the HCFCs included in the Montreal Protocol in the absence of experimentally derived metrics.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Oral Nutrition Supplementation for Malnourished Older Hospital Patients.

PubMed

Zhong, Yue; Cohen, Joshua T; Goates, Scott; Luo, Menghua; Nelson, Jeffrey; Neumann, Peter J

2017-02-01

Malnutrition, which is associated with increased medical complications in older hospitalized patients, can be attenuated by providing nutritional supplements. This study evaluates the cost effectiveness of a specialized oral nutritional supplement (ONS) in malnourished older hospitalized patients. We conducted an economic evaluation alongside a multicenter, randomized, controlled clinical trial (NOURISH Study). The target population was malnourished older hospitalized patients in the USA. We used 90-day (base case) and lifetime (sensitivity analysis) time horizons. The study compared a nutrient-dense ONS, containing high protein and β-hydroxy-β-methylbutyrate to placebo. Outcomes included health-care costs, measured as the product of resource use and per unit cost; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (90-day time horizon); life-years (LYs) saved (lifetime time horizon); and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). All costs were inflated to 2015 US dollars. In the base-case analysis, 90-day treatment group costs averaged US$22,506 per person, compared to US$22,133 for the control group. Treatment group patients gained 0.011 more QALYs than control group subjects, reflecting the treatment group's significantly greater probability of survival through 90 days' follow-up, as reported by the clinical trial. Hence, the 90-day follow-up period ICER was US$33,818/QALY. Assuming a lifetime time horizon, estimated treatment group life expectancy exceeded control group life expectancy by 0.71 years. Hence, the lifetime ICER was US$524/LY. The follow-up period for the trial was relatively short. Some of the patients were lost to follow-up, thus reducing collection of health-care utilization data during the clinical trial. Our findings suggest that the investigative ONS cost-effectively extends the lives of malnourished hospitalized patients.

Lifetime cost of everolimus vs axitinib in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma who failed prior sunitinib therapy in the US.

PubMed

Perrin, Allison; Sherman, Steven; Pal, Sumanta; Chua, Andrew; Gorritz, Magdaliz; Liu, Zhimei; Wang, Xufang; Culver, Kenneth; Casciano, Roman; Garrison, Louis P

2015-03-01

Everolimus and axitinib are approved in the US to treat patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) after failure on sunitinib or sorafenib, and one prior systemic therapy (e.g., sunitinib), respectively. Two indirect comparisons performed to evaluate progression-free survival in patients treated with everolimus vs axitinib suggested similar efficacy between the two treatments. Therefore, this analysis compares the lifetime costs of these two therapies among sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients from a US payer perspective. A Markov model was developed to simulate a cohort of sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients and estimate the cost of treating patients with everolimus vs axitinib. The following health states were included: stable disease without adverse events (AEs), stable disease with AEs, disease progression (PD), and death. The model included the following resources: active treatments, post-progression treatments, adverse events, physician and nurse visits, scans and tests, and palliative care. Resource utilization inputs were derived from a US claims database analysis. Additionally, a 3% annual discount rate was applied to costs, and the robustness of the model results was tested by conducting sensitivity analyses, including those on dosing scheme and post-progression treatment costs. Base case results demonstrated that patients treated with everolimus cost an average of $12,985 (11%) less over their lifetimes than patients treated with axitinib. The primary difference in costs was related to active treatment, which was largely driven by axitinib's higher dose intensity. RESULTS remained consistent across sensitivity analyses for AE and PD treatment costs, as well as dose intensity and discount rates. The results suggest that everolimus likely leads to lower lifetime costs than axitinib for sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients in the US.

Study of epidemiological risk of lung cancer in Mexico due indoor radon exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángeles, A.; Espinosa, G.

2014-07-01

In this work the lifetime relative risks (LRR) of lung cancer due to exposure to indoor 222Rn on the Mexican population is calculated. Cigarette smoking is the number one risk factor for lung cancer (LC), because that, to calculate the number of cases of LC due to exposure to 222Rn is necessary considers the number of cases of LC for smoking cigarette. The lung cancer mortality rates published by the "Secretaría de Salud" (SSA), the mexican population data published by the "Consejo Nacional de Población" (CONAPO), smoking data in the mexican population, published by the "Comisión Nacional Contra las Adicciones" (CONADIC), the "Organización Panamericana de la Salud" (OPS) and indoor 222Rn concentrations in Mexico published in several recent studies are used. To calculate the lifetime relative risks (LRR) for different segments of the Mexican population, firstly the Excess Relative Risk (ERR) is calculated using the method developed by the BEIR VI committee and subsequently modified by the USEPA and published in the report "EPA Assessment of Risks from Radon in Homes". The excess relative risks were then used to calculate the corresponding lifetime relative risks, again using the method developed by the BEIR VI committee. The lifetime relative risks for Mexican male and female eversmokers and Mexican male and female never-smokers were calculated for radon concentrations spanning the range found in recent studies of indoor radon concentrations in Mexico. The lifetime relative risks of lung cancer induced by lifetime exposure to the mexican average indoor radon concentration were estimated to be 1.44 and 1.40 for never-smokers mexican females and males respectively, and 1.19 and 1.17 for ever-smokers Mexican females and males respectively. The Mexican population LRR values obtained in relation to the USA and Canada LRR published values in ever-smokers for both gender are similar with differences less than 4%, in case of never-smokers in relation with Canada population the differences in LRR values are less than 2% and in never-smokers for the USA population the differences in LRR values compared with the Mexican population are about 10%.

Prospective study of ultraviolet radiation exposure and risk of breast cancer in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zamoiski, Rachel D., E-mail: rachel.zamoiski@nih.g

Although there are few environmental risk factors for breast cancer, some epidemiologic studies found that exposure to solar UV radiation (UVR) may lower risk. Prior epidemiologic studies are limited by narrow ambient UVR ranges and lack lifetime exposure assessment. To address these issues, we studied a cohort with residences representing a wide range of ambient UVR. Using the nationwide U.S. Radiologic Technologists study (USRT), we examined the association between breast cancer risk and UVR based on ambient UVR, time outdoors, a combined variable of ambient UVR and time outdoors (combined UVR), and sun susceptibility factors. Participants reported location of residencemore » and hours spent outdoors during five age periods. Ambient UVR was derived by linking satellite-based annual UVR estimates to self-reported residences. Lifetime values were calculated by averaging these measures accounting for years spent in that location. We examined the risk of breast cancer among 36,725 participants (n=716 cases) from baseline questionnaire completion (2003–2005) through 2012–2013 using Cox proportional hazards models. Breast cancer risk was unrelated to ambient UVR (HR for lifetime 5th vs 1st quintile=1.22, 95% CI: 0.95–1.56, p-trend=0.36), time outdoors (HR for lifetime 5th vs 1st quintile=0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68–1.10, p-trend=0.46), or combined UVR (HR lifetime 5th vs 1st quintile =0.85, 95% CI: 0.67–1.08, p-trend=0.46). Breast cancer risk was not associated with skin complexion, eye or hair color, or sunburn history. This study does not support the hypothesis that UVR exposure lowers breast cancer risk. - Highlights: • Prior studies of UVR and breast cancer are inconsistent and limited. • We assessed UVR exposure across the lifetime and in three ways. • Conducted a prospective analysis of UVR exposure and breast cancer risk. • No association of any UVR exposure metric at any age with breast cancer risk. • Our findings suggest UVR exposure does not reduce risk of breast cancer.« less

Injury assessment in three low-resource settings: a reference for worldwide estimates.

PubMed

Gupta, Shailvi; Wren, Sherry M; Kamara, Thaim B; Shrestha, Sunil; Kyamanywa, Patrick; Wong, Evan G; Groen, Reinou S; Nwomeh, Benedict C; Kushner, Adam L; Price, Raymond R

2015-04-27

Trauma has become a worldwide pandemic. Without dedicated public health interventions, fatal injuries will rise 40% and become the 4th leading cause of death by 2030, with the burden highest in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of traumatic injuries and injury-related deaths in low-resource countries worldwide, using population-based data from the Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Need (SOSAS), a validated survey tool. Using data from three resource-poor countries (Nepal, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone), a weighted average of injury prevalence and deaths due to injury was calculated and extrapolated to low-resource countries worldwide. Injuries were defined as wounds from road traffic injuries (bus, car, truck, pedestrian, and bicycle), gunshot or stab or slash wounds, falls, work or home incidents, and burns. The Nepal study included a visual physical examination that confirmed the validity of the self-reported data. Population and annual health expenditure per capita data were obtained from the World Bank. Low-resource countries were defined as those with an annual per capita health expenditure of US$100 or less. The overall prevalence of lifetime injury for these three countries was 18·03% (95% CI 18·02-18·04); 11·64% (95% CI 11·53-11·75) of deaths annually were due to injury. An estimated prevalence of lifetime injuries for the total population in 48 low-resource countries is 465·7 million people; about 2·6 million fatal injuries occur in these countries annually. The limitations of this observational study with self-reported data include possible recall and desirability bias. About 466 million people at a community level (18%) sustain at least one injury during their lifetime and 2·6 million people die annually from trauma in the world's poorest countries. Trauma care capacity should be considered a global health priority; the importance of integrating a coordinated trauma system into any health system should not be underestimated. None. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The lifetime cost to English students of borrowing to invest in a medical degree: a gender comparison using data from the Office for National Statistics.

PubMed

Ercolani, Marco G; Vohra, Ravinder S; Carmichael, Fiona; Mangat, Karanjit; Alderson, Derek

2015-04-21

To evaluate this impact on male and female English medical graduates by estimating the total time and amount repaid on loans taken out with the UK's Student Loans Company (SLC). UK. 4286 respondents with a medical degree in the Labour Force Surveys administered by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) between 1997 and 2014. Age-salary profiles were generated to estimate the repayment profiles for different levels of initial graduate debt. 2195 female and 2149 male medical graduates were interviewed by the ONS. Those working full-time (73.1% females and 96.1% males) were analysed in greater depth. Following standardisation to 2014 prices, average full-time male graduates earned up to 35% more than females by the age of 55. The initial graduate debt from tuition fees alone amounts to £39,945.69. Owing to interest charges on this debt the average full-time male graduate repays £57,303 over 20 years, while the average female earns less and so repays £61,809 over 26 years. When additional SLC loans are required for maintenance, the initial graduate debt can be as high as £81,916 and, as SLC debt is written off 30 years after graduation, the average female repays £75,786 while the average male repays £110,644. Medical graduates on an average salary are unlikely to repay their SLC debt in full. This is a consequence of higher university fees and as SLC debt is written off 30 years after graduation. This results in the average female graduate repaying more when debt is low, but a lower amount when debt is high compared to male graduates. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The lifetime cost to English students of borrowing to invest in a medical degree: a gender comparison using data from the Office for National Statistics

PubMed Central

Ercolani, Marco G; Vohra, Ravinder S; Carmichael, Fiona; Mangat, Karanjit; Alderson, Derek

2015-01-01

Objective To evaluate this impact on male and female English medical graduates by estimating the total time and amount repaid on loans taken out with the UK's Student Loans Company (SLC). Setting UK. Participants 4286 respondents with a medical degree in the Labour Force Surveys administered by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) between 1997 and 2014. Outcomes Age-salary profiles were generated to estimate the repayment profiles for different levels of initial graduate debt. Results 2195 female and 2149 male medical graduates were interviewed by the ONS. Those working full-time (73.1% females and 96.1% males) were analysed in greater depth. Following standardisation to 2014 prices, average full-time male graduates earned up to 35% more than females by the age of 55. The initial graduate debt from tuition fees alone amounts to £39 945.69. Owing to interest charges on this debt the average full-time male graduate repays £57 303 over 20 years, while the average female earns less and so repays £61 809 over 26 years. When additional SLC loans are required for maintenance, the initial graduate debt can be as high as £81 916 and, as SLC debt is written off 30 years after graduation, the average female repays £75 786 while the average male repays £110 644. Conclusions Medical graduates on an average salary are unlikely to repay their SLC debt in full. This is a consequence of higher university fees and as SLC debt is written off 30 years after graduation. This results in the average female graduate repaying more when debt is low, but a lower amount when debt is high compared to male graduates. PMID:25900463

Fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy: potential for in-vivo estimation of skin fluorophores changes after low power laser treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferulova, Inesa; Lihachev, Alexey; Spigulis, Janis

2013-11-01

The impact of visible cwlaser irradiation on skin autofluorescence lifetimes was investigated in spectral range from 450 nm to 600 nm. Skin optical provocations were performed during 1 min by 405 nm low power cw laser with power density up to 20 mW/cm2. Autofluorescence lifetimes were measured before and immediately after the optical provocation.

Debiased orbit and absolute-magnitude distributions for near-Earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granvik, Mikael; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Jedicke, Robert; Bolin, Bryce; Bottke, William F.; Beshore, Edward; Vokrouhlický, David; Nesvorný, David; Michel, Patrick

2018-09-01

The debiased absolute-magnitude and orbit distributions as well as source regions for near-Earth objects (NEOs) provide a fundamental frame of reference for studies of individual NEOs and more complex population-level questions. We present a new four-dimensional model of the NEO population that describes debiased steady-state distributions of semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and absolute magnitude H in the range 17 < H < 25. The modeling approach improves upon the methodology originally developed by Bottke et al. (2000, Science 288, 2190-2194) in that it is, for example, based on more realistic orbit distributions and uses source-specific absolute-magnitude distributions that allow for a power-law slope that varies with H. We divide the main asteroid belt into six different entrance routes or regions (ER) to the NEO region: the ν6, 3:1J, 5:2J and 2:1J resonance complexes as well as Hungarias and Phocaeas. In addition we include the Jupiter-family comets as the primary cometary source of NEOs. We calibrate the model against NEO detections by Catalina Sky Surveys' stations 703 and G96 during 2005-2012, and utilize the complementary nature of these two systems to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated to the resulting model. We find that the (fitted) H distributions have significant differences, although most of them show a minimum power-law slope at H ∼ 20. As a consequence of the differences between the ER-specific H distributions we find significant variations in, for example, the NEO orbit distribution, average lifetime, and the relative contribution of different ERs as a function of H. The most important ERs are the ν6 and 3:1J resonance complexes with JFCs contributing a few percent of NEOs on average. A significant contribution from the Hungaria group leads to notable changes compared to the predictions by Bottke et al. in, for example, the orbit distribution and average lifetime of NEOs. We predict that there are 962-56+52 (802-42+48 ×103) NEOs with H < 17.75 (H < 25) and these numbers are in agreement with the most recent estimates found in the literature (the uncertainty estimates only account for the random component). Based on our model we find that relative shares between different NEO groups (Amor, Apollo, Aten, Atira, Vatira) are (39.4,54.4,3.5,1.2,0.3)%, respectively, for the considered H range and that these ratios have a negligible dependence on H. Finally, we find an agreement between our estimate for the rate of Earth impacts by NEOs and recent estimates in the literature, but there remains a potentially significant discrepancy in the frequency of Tunguska-sized and Chelyabinsk-sized impacts.

Lifetime earnings for physicians across specialties.

PubMed

Leigh, J Paul; Tancredi, Daniel; Jerant, Anthony; Romano, Patrick S; Kravitz, Richard L

2012-12-01

Earlier studies estimated annual income differences across specialties, but lifetime income may be more relevant given physicians' long-term commitments to specialties. Annual income and work hours data were collected from 6381 physicians in the nationally representative 2004-2005 Community Tracking Study. Data regarding years of residency were collected from AMA FREIDA. Present value models were constructed assuming 3% discount rates. Estimates were adjusted for demographic and market covariates. Sensitivity analyses included 4 alternative models involving work hours, retirement, exogenous variables, and 1% discount rate. Estimates were generated for 4 broad specialty categories (Primary Care, Surgery, Internal Medicine and Pediatric Subspecialties, and Other), and for 41 specific specialties. The estimates of lifetime earnings for the broad categories of Surgery, Internal Medicine and Pediatric Subspecialties, and Other specialties were $1,587,722, $1,099,655, and $761,402 more than for Primary Care. For the 41 specific specialties, the top 3 (with family medicine as reference) were neurological surgery ($2,880,601), medical oncology ($2,772,665), and radiation oncology ($2,659,657). The estimates from models with varying rates of retirement and including only exogenous variables were similar to those in the preferred model. The 1% discount model generated estimates that were roughly 150% larger than the 3% model. There was considerable variation in the lifetime earnings across physician specialties. After accounting for varying residency years and discounting future earnings, primary care specialties earned roughly $1-3 million less than other specialties. Earnings' differences across specialties may undermine health reform efforts to control costs and ensure adequate numbers of primary care physicians.

A cosmic Ray Muon Experiment: a Way to Teach Standard Model of Particles at Community Colleges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barazandeh, C.; Gutarra-Leon, A.; Rivas, R.; Glaser, H.; Majewski, W.

2016-11-01

This experiment is an example of research for early undergraduate students and of its benefits and challenges as an accessible strategy for community colleges, in the spirit of the report on improving undergraduate STEM education from the US President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. The goals of this project include measuring average low- energy muon flux, day/night flux difference, time dilation, energy spectra of electrons and muons in arbitrary units, muon decay curve, average lifetime of muons. From the lifetime data we calculate the weak coupling constant gw, electric charge e and the Higgs energy density.

Genetic selection for lifetime reproductive performance.

PubMed

Clutter, A C

2009-01-01

Genetic improvement of sow lifetime reproductive performance has value from both the economic perspectives of pork producers and the pork industry, but also from the perspective of ethical and animal welfare concerns by the general public. Genetic potential for piglets produced from individual litters is a primary determinant of lifetime prolificacy, but females must be able to sustain productivity without injury or death beyond the achievement of positive net present value. Evidence exists for between- and within-line genetic variation in sow lifetime performance, suggesting that improvements may be made by both line choices and genetic selection within lines. However, some of the same barriers to accurate within-line selection that apply to individual litter traits also present challenges to genetic selection for sow lifetime prolificacy: generally low heritabilites, sex-limited expression, expression after the age that animals are typically selected, and unfavorable genetic correlations with other traits in the profit function. In addition, there is an inherent conflict within the genetic nucleus herds where selections take place between the goal of shortened generation interval to accelerate genetic progress and the expression of sow lifetime traits. A proliferation in the industry of commercial multipliers with direct genetic ties and routine record flows to genetic nucleus herds provides a framework for accurate estimates of relevant genetic variances and covariances, and estimation of breeding values for sow lifetime traits that can be used in genetic selection.

Estimating the Proportion of Childhood Cancer Cases and Costs Attributable to the Environment in California.

PubMed

Nelson, Lauren; Valle, Jhaqueline; King, Galatea; Mills, Paul K; Richardson, Maxwell J; Roberts, Eric M; Smith, Daniel; English, Paul

2017-05-01

To estimate the proportion of cases and costs of the most common cancers among children aged 0 to 14 years (leukemia, lymphoma, and brain or central nervous system tumors) that were attributable to preventable environmental pollution in California in 2013. We conducted a literature review to identify preventable environmental hazards associated with childhood cancer. We combined risk estimates with California-specific exposure prevalence estimates to calculate hazard-specific environmental attributable fractions (EAFs). We combined hazard-specific EAFs to estimate EAFs for each cancer and calculated an overall EAF. Estimated economic costs included annual (indirect and direct medical) and lifetime costs. Hazards associated with childhood cancer risks included tobacco smoke, residential exposures, and parental occupational exposures. Estimated EAFs for leukemia, lymphoma, and brain or central nervous system cancer were 21.3% (range = 11.7%-30.9%), 16.1% (range = 15.0%-17.2%), and 2.0% (range = 1.7%-2.2%), respectively. The combined EAF was 15.1% (range = 9.4%-20.7%), representing $18.6 million (range = $11.6 to $25.5 million) in annual costs and $31 million in lifetime costs. Reducing environmental hazards and exposures in California could substantially reduce the human burden of childhood cancer and result in significant annual and lifetime savings.

Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) estimation: A case study of Ahvaz City, Iran.

PubMed

Alavi, Nadali; Shirmardi, Mohammad; Babaei, Aliakbar; Takdastan, Afshin; Bagheri, Nastaran

2015-03-01

The development of new technologies and the increasing consumption of electronic and electrical equipment have led to increased generation of e-waste in the municipal waste streams. This waste due to the presence of hazardous substances in its composition needs specific attention and management. The present study was carried out in Ahvaz metropolis using a survey method in 2011. For estimating the amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) generated, the "use and consumption" method was used. In order to determine the amounts of the electrical and electronic equipment that were used and their lifetime, and for investigating the current status of e-waste management in Ahvaz, an appropriate questionnaire was devised. In 2011, the total number of discarded electronic items was 2,157,742 units. According to the average weight of the equipment, the total generation of e-waste was 9952.25 metric tons per year and was 9.95 kg per capita per year. The highest e-waste generated was related to air conditioners, with 3125.36 metric tons per year, followed by the wastes from refrigerators and freezers, washing machines, and televisions. The wastes from desktop computers and laptops were 418 and 63 metric tons/year, respectively, and the corresponding values per capita were 0.42 and 0.063 kg, respectively. These results also showed that 10 tons fixed phones, 25 tons mobile phones, and by considering an average lifetime of 3 years for each lamp about 320 tons lamps were generated as e-waste in Ahvaz in the year 2011. Based on this study, currently there is not an integrated system for proper management of WEEE in Ahvaz, and this waste stream is collected and disposed of with other municipal waste. Some measures, including a specific collection system, recycling of valuable substances, and proper treatment and disposal, should be done about such waste. Ahvaz is one of the most important economic centers of Iran, and to the best of our knowledge, no study has been carried out to estimate the generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) in this city. Therefore, the authors estimated the generation of the WEEE by the "use and consumption" method. The results of this study can be useful not only for decision-making organizations of Ahvaz to manage and recycle this type of waste but also can be used as a method to estimate the generation of e-waste in different locations of the world, especially in places where the generation of such waste could be a risk to human health and the environment.

Estimation of two ordered mean residual lifetime functions.

PubMed

Ebrahimi, N

1993-06-01

In many statistical studies involving failure data, biometric mortality data, and actuarial data, mean residual lifetime (MRL) function is of prime importance. In this paper we introduce the problem of nonparametric estimation of a MRL function on an interval when this function is bounded from below by another such function (known or unknown) on that interval, and derive the corresponding two functional estimators. The first is to be used when there is a known bound, and the second when the bound is another MRL function to be estimated independently. Both estimators are obtained by truncating the empirical estimator discussed by Yang (1978, Annals of Statistics 6, 112-117). In the first case, it is truncated at a known bound; in the second, at a point somewhere between the two empirical estimates. Consistency of both estimators is proved, and a pointwise large-sample distribution theory of the first estimator is derived.

The impact of lifetime suicidality on academic performance in college freshmen.

PubMed

Mortier, P; Demyttenaere, K; Auerbach, R P; Green, J G; Kessler, R C; Kiekens, G; Nock, M K; Bruffaerts, R

2015-11-01

While suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) among college students are common, the associations between STB and academic performance are not well understood. As part of the World Mental Health Surveys International College Student project, web-based self-reported STB of KU Leuven (Leuven, Belgium) incoming freshmen (N=4921; response rate=65.4%) was collected, as well as academic year percentage (AYP), and the departments to which students belong. Single- and multilevel multivariate analyses were conducted, adjusted for gender, age, parental educational level, and comorbid lifetime emotional problems. Lifetime suicide plan and attempt upon college entrance were associated with significant decreases in AYP (3.6% and 7.9%, respectively). A significant interaction was found with average departmental AYP, with STB more strongly associated with reduced AYP in departments with lower than higher average AYP. Limited sample size precluded further investigation of interactions between department-level and student-level variables. No information was available on freshman secondary school academic performance. Lifetime STB has a strong negative association with academic performance in college. Our study suggests a potential role for the college environment as target for treatment and prevention interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eye lens radiation exposure to interventional cardiologists: a retrospective assessment of cumulative doses.

PubMed

Jacob, Sophie; Donadille, Laurent; Maccia, Carlo; Bar, Olivier; Boveda, Serge; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

2013-03-01

Radiation dose to the eye lens is a crucial issue for interventional cardiologists (ICs) who are exposed during the procedures they perform. This paper presents a retrospective assessment of the cumulative eye lens doses of ICs enrolled in the O'CLOC study for Occupational Cataracts and Lens Opacities in interventional Cardiology. Information on the workload in the catheterisation laboratory, radiation protection equipment, eye lens dose per procedure and dose reduction factors associated with eye-protective equipment were considered. For the 129 ICs at an average age of 51 who had worked for an average period of 22 years, the estimated cumulative eye lens dose ranged from 25 mSv to more than 1600 mSv; the mean ± SD was 423 ± 359 mSv. After several years of practice, without eye protection, ICs may exceed the new ICRP lifetime eye dose threshold of 500 mSv and be at high risk of developing early radiation-induced cataracts. Radiation protection equipment can reduce these doses and should be used routinely.

Statin cost-effectiveness in the United States for people at different vascular risk levels.

PubMed

2009-03-01

Statins reduce the rates of heart attacks, strokes, and revascularization procedures (ie, major vascular events) in a wide range of circumstances. Randomized controlled trial data from 20,536 adults have been used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of prescribing statin therapy in the United States for people at different levels of vascular disease risk and to explore whether wider use of generic statins beyond the populations currently recommended for treatment in clinical guidelines is indicated. Randomized controlled trial data, an internally validated vascular disease model, and US costs of statin therapy and other medical care were used to project lifetime risks of vascular events and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 40 mg simvastatin daily. For an average of 5 years, allocation to simvastatin reduced the estimated US costs of hospitalizations for vascular events by approximately 20% (95% CI, 15 to 24) in the different subcategories of participants studied. At a daily cost of $1 for 40 mg generic simvastatin, the estimated costs of preventing a vascular death within the 5-year study period ranged from a net saving of $1300 (95% CI, $15,600 saving to $13,200 cost) among participants with a 42% 5-year major vascular event risk to a net cost of $216,500 ($123,700 to $460,000 cost) among those with a 12% 5-year risk. The costs per life year gained with lifetime simvastatin treatment ranged from $2500 (-$40 to $3820) in people aged 40 to 49 years with a 42% 5-year major vascular event risk to $10,990 ($9430 to $14,700) in people aged 70 years and older with a 12% 5-year risk. Treatment with generic simvastatin appears to be cost-effective for a much wider population in the United States than that recommended by current guidelines.

Time-dependent effect of intensity of smoking and of occupational exposure to asbestos on the risk of lung cancer: results from the ICARE case-control study.

PubMed

Lévêque, Emilie; Lacourt, Aude; Luce, Danièle; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Guénel, Pascal; Stücker, Isabelle; Leffondré, Karen

2018-05-18

To estimate the impact of intensity of both smoking and occupational exposure to asbestos on the risk of lung cancer throughout the whole exposure history. Data on 2026 male cases and 2610 male controls came from the French ICARE (Investigation of occupational and environmental causes of respiratory cancers) population-based, case-control study. Lifetime smoking history and occupational history were collected from standardised questionnaires and face-to-face interviews. Occupational exposure to asbestos was assessed using a job exposure matrix. The effects of annual average daily intensity of smoking (reported average number of cigarettes smoked per day) and asbestos exposure (estimated average daily air concentration of asbestos fibres at work) were estimated using a flexible weighted cumulative index of exposure in logistic regression models. Intensity of smoking in the 10 years preceding diagnosis had a much stronger association with the risk of lung cancer than more distant intensity. By contrast, intensity of asbestos exposure that occurred more than 40 years before diagnosis had a stronger association with the risk of lung cancer than more recent intensity, even if intensity in the 10 years preceding diagnosis also had a significant effect. Our results illustrate the dynamic of the effect of intensity of both smoking and occupational exposure to asbestos on the risk of lung cancer. They confirm that the timing of exposure plays an important role, and suggest that standard analytical methods assuming equal weights of intensity over the whole exposure history may be questionable. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Hypertension among adults exposed to drinking water arsenic in Northern Chile.

PubMed

Hall, Emily M; Acevedo, Johanna; López, Francisca González; Cortés, Sandra; Ferreccio, Catterina; Smith, Allan H; Steinmaus, Craig M

2017-02-01

A growing number of studies have identified an association between exposure to inorganic arsenic and hypertension. However, results have not been consistent across studies. Additional studies are warranted, given the global prevalence of both arsenic exposure and morbidity attributable to hypertension. We analyzed data collected from October 2007-December 2010 for a population-based cancer case-control study in northern Chile. Data included lifetime individual arsenic exposure estimates and information on potential confounders for a total of 1266 subjects. Those self-reporting either a physician diagnosis of hypertension or use of an anti-hypertensive medication were classified as having hypertension (n=612). The association between hypertension and drinking water arsenic exposure was analyzed using logistic regression models. Compared to those in the lowest category for lifetime highest 5-year average arsenic exposure (<60µg/L), those in the middle (60-623μg/L) and upper (>623μg/L) exposure categories had adjusted hypertension ORs of 1.49 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.05) and 1.65 (95% CI: 1.18, 2.32), respectively. Similar results were observed in analyses of lifetime cumulative exposures and analyses restricted to exposures from the distant past. We identified evidence of increased odds of hypertension with exposure to arsenic in drinking water among study participants. Our findings add to the growing body of research supporting this association, which could have important public health implications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypertension among Adults Exposed to Drinking Water Arsenic in Northern Chile

PubMed Central

Hall, Emily M.; Acevedo, Johanna; López, Francisca González; Cortés, Sandra; Ferreccio, Catterina; Smith, Allan H.; Steinmaus, Craig M.

2016-01-01

Background A growing number of studies have identified an association between exposure to inorganic arsenic and hypertension. However, results have not been consistent across studies. Additional studies are warranted, given the global prevalence of both arsenic exposure and morbidity attributable to hypertension. Methods We analyzed data collected from October 2007–December 2010 for a population-based cancer case-control study in northern Chile. Data included lifetime individual arsenic exposure estimates and information on potential confounders for a total of 1266 subjects. Those self-reporting either a physician diagnosis of hypertension or use of an anti-hypertensive medication were classified as having hypertension (n=612). The association between hypertension and drinking water arsenic exposure was analyzed using logistic regression models. Results Compared to those in the lowest category for lifetime highest 5-year average arsenic exposure (<60 µg/L), those in the middle (60–623 µg/L) and upper (>623 µg/L) exposure categories had adjusted hypertension ORs of 1.49 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.05) and 1.65 (95% CI: 1.18, 2.32), respectively. Similar results were observed in analyses of lifetime cumulative exposures and analyses restricted to exposures from the distant past. Conclusions We identified evidence of increased odds of hypertension with exposure to arsenic in drinking water among study participants. Our findings add to the growing body of research supporting this association, which could have important public health implications. PMID:27918984

Degradation modeling of mid-power white-light LEDs by using Wiener process.

PubMed

Huang, Jianlin; Golubović, Dušan S; Koh, Sau; Yang, Daoguo; Li, Xiupeng; Fan, Xuejun; Zhang, G Q

2015-07-27

The IES standard TM-21-11 provides a guideline for lifetime prediction of LED devices. As it uses average normalized lumen maintenance data and performs non-linear regression for lifetime modeling, it cannot capture dynamic and random variation of the degradation process of LED devices. In addition, this method cannot capture the failure distribution, although it is much more relevant in reliability analysis. Furthermore, the TM-21-11 only considers lumen maintenance for lifetime prediction. Color shift, as another important performance characteristic of LED devices, may also render significant degradation during service life, even though the lumen maintenance has not reached the critical threshold. In this study, a modified Wiener process has been employed for the modeling of the degradation of LED devices. By using this method, dynamic and random variations, as well as the non-linear degradation behavior of LED devices, can be easily accounted for. With a mild assumption, the parameter estimation accuracy has been improved by including more information into the likelihood function while neglecting the dependency between the random variables. As a consequence, the mean time to failure (MTTF) has been obtained and shows comparable result with IES TM-21-11 predictions, indicating the feasibility of the proposed method. Finally, the cumulative failure distribution was presented corresponding to different combinations of lumen maintenance and color shift. The results demonstrate that a joint failure distribution of LED devices could be modeled by simply considering their lumen maintenance and color shift as two independent variables.

Risk assessment of acrylamide in foods.

PubMed

Dybing, E; Sanner, T

2003-09-01

Daily mean intakes of acrylamide present in foods and coffee in a limited Norwegian exposure assessment study have been estimated to be 0.49 and 0.46 microg per kg body weight in males and females, respectively. Testicular mesotheliomas and mammary gland adenomas have consistently been found in 2-year drinking water rat cancer studies with acrylamide. Acrylamide also shows initiating activity in mouse skin after systemic administration. Since acrylamide is converted to the mutagenic metabolite glycidamide and forms adducts to hemoglobin in rodents and humans, the tumorigenic endpoints in rats were assumed to be an expression of acrylamide genotoxicity. Using the default linear extrapolation methods LED10 and T25, the lifetime cancer hazard after lifelong exposure to 1 microg acrylamide per kg body weight per day, scaled to humans, was calculated to be, on average, 1.3 x 10-3. Using this hazard level and correlating it with the exposure estimates, a lifetime cancer risk related to daily intake of acrylamide in foods for 70 years in males was calculated to be 0.6 x 10-3, implying that 6 out of 10,000 individuals may develop cancer due to acrylamide. For females, the risk values were slightly lower. It must be emphasized that this risk assessment is conservative. A number of processes may result in nonlinearity of the dose-response relationships for acrylamide carcinogenicity in the low-dose region, including detoxication reactions, cell cycle arrest, DNA repair, apoptosis, and immune surveillance. Thus, the true risk levels related to acrylamide intake may be considerably lower.

Investigation of levels in ambient air near sources of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in Kanpur, India, and risk assessment due to inhalation.

PubMed

Goel, Anubha; Upadhyay, Kritika; Chakraborty, Mrinmoy

2016-05-01

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are a class of organic compounds listed as persistent organic pollutant and have been banned for use under Stockholm Convention (1972). They were used primarily in transformers and capacitors, paint, flame retardants, plasticizers, and lubricants. PCBs can be emitted through the primary and secondary sources into the atmosphere, undergo long-range atmospheric transport, and hence have been detected worldwide. Reported levels in ambient air are generally higher in urban areas. Active sampling of ambient air was conducted in Kanpur, a densely populated and industrialized city in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, for detection of 32 priority PCBs, with the aim to determine the concentration in gas/particle phase and assess exposure risk. More than 50 % of PCBs were detected in air. Occurrence in particles was dominated by heavier congeners, and levels in gas phase were below detection. Levels determined in this study are lower than the levels in Coastal areas of India but are at par with other Asian countries where majority of sites chosen for sampling were urban industrial areas. Human health risk estimates through air inhalation pathway were made in terms of lifetime average daily dose (LADD) and incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR). The study found lower concentrations of PCBs than guideline values and low health risk estimates through inhalation within acceptable levels, indicating a minimum risk to the adults due to exposure to PCBs present in ambient air in Kanpur.

Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2015-05-01

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.

Natural gas fugitive emissions rates constrained by global atmospheric methane and ethane.

PubMed

Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Bruhwiler, Lori M P

2014-07-15

The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER)--the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere--between 1 and 9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006-2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.

Rain Volume Estimation over Areas Using Satellite and Radar Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doneaud, A. A.; Miller, J. R., Jr.; Johnson, L. R.; Vonderhaar, T. H.; Laybe, P.

1984-01-01

The application of satellite data to a recently developed radar technique used to estimate convective rain volumes over areas on a dry environment (the northern Great Plains) is discussed. The area time integral technique (ATI) provides a means of estimating total rain volumes over fixed and floating target areas of the order of 1,000 to 100,000 km(2) for clusters lasting 40 min. The basis of the method is the existence of a strong correlation between the area coverage integrated over the lifetime of the storm (ATI) and the rain volume. One key element in this technique is that it does not require the consideration of the structure of the radar intensities inside the area coverage to generate rain volumes, but only considers the rain event per se. This fact might reduce or eliminate some sources of error in applying the technique to satellite data. The second key element is that the ATI once determined can be converted to total rain volume by using a constant factor (average rain rate) for a given locale.

The Lifetime Value of a Loyal Customer: What Can a Child Care Director Learn from Domino's Pizza and a Cadillac Dealer in Dallas?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Copeland, Margaret Leitch; Gimilaro, Susan

2010-01-01

In "The Service Profit Chain," Harvard Business School professors James Heskett, Earl Sasser, and Leonard Schlesinger (1997) offer two anecdotes--from Domino's Pizza and a Dallas Cadillac dealership--that illuminate the concept of valuing a lifetime customer. Experts estimate that the lifetime value of a loyal Domino's Pizza customer is $4,000 and…

The quality-of-life burden of knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand adults: A model-based evaluation

PubMed Central

Wilson, Ross; Hansen, Paul; Losina, Elena

2017-01-01

Background Knee osteoarthritis is a leading global cause of health-related quality of life loss. The aim of this project was to quantify health losses arising from knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand (NZ) in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost. Methods The Osteoarthritis Policy Model (OAPol), a validated Monte Carlo computer simulation model, was used to estimate QALYs lost due to knee osteoarthritis in the NZ adult population aged 40–84 over their lifetimes from the base year of 2006 until death. Data were from the NZ Health Survey, NZ Burden of Diseases, NZ Census, and relevant literature. QALYs were derived from NZ EQ-5D value set 2. Sensitivity to health state valuation, disease and pain prevalence were assessed in secondary analyses. Results Based on NZ EQ-5D health state valuations, mean health losses due to knee osteoarthritis over people’s lifetimes in NZ are 3.44 QALYs per person, corresponding to 467,240 QALYs across the adult population. Average estimated per person QALY losses are higher for non-Māori females (3.55) than Māori females (3.38), and higher for non-Māori males (3.34) than Māori males (2.60). The proportion of QALYs lost out of the total quality-adjusted life expectancy for those without knee osteoarthritis is similar across all subgroups, ranging from 20 to 23 percent. Conclusions At both the individual and population levels, knee osteoarthritis is responsible for large lifetime QALY losses. QALY losses are higher for females than males due to greater prevalence of knee osteoarthritis and higher life expectancy, and lower for Māori than non-Māori due to lower life expectancy. Large health gains are potentially realisable from public health and policy measures aimed at decreasing incidence, progression, pain, and disability of osteoarthritis. PMID:29065119

Health and economic impact of human papillomavirus 16 and 18 vaccination of preadolescent girls and cervical cancer screening of adult women in Peru.

PubMed

Goldie, Sue J; Levin, Carol; Mosqueira-Lovón, N Rocio; Ortendahl, Jesse; Kim, Jane; O'Shea, Meredith; Diaz Sanchez, Mireia; Mendoza Araujo, Maria Ana

2012-12-01

To estimate the benefits, cost-effectiveness (i.e., value for money), and required financial costs (e.g., affordability) of adding human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to Peru's cervical cancer screening program. Evidence (e.g., coverage, delivery costs) from an HPV vaccination demonstration project conducted in Peru was combined with epidemiological data in an empirically calibrated mathematical model to assess screening (HPV DNA testing three to five times per lifetime) and HPV vaccination under different cost, coverage, and efficacy assumptions. Model outcomes included lifetime risk of cancer reduction, cancer cases averted, lives saved, average life expectancy gains, short-term financial costs, and discounted long-term economic costs. Status quo low levels of screening (e.g., cytologic screening at 10.0% coverage) reduced lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 11.9%, compared to not screening. Adding vaccination of preadolescent girls at a coverage achieved in the demonstration program (82.0%) produced an additional 46.1% reduction, and would cost less than US$ 500 per year of life saved (YLS) at ~US$ 7/dose or ~US$ 1 300 at ~US$ 20/dose. One year of vaccination was estimated to cost ~US$ 5 million at ~US$ 5/dose or ~US$ 16 million at ~US$ 20/dose, including programmatic costs. Enhanced screening in adult women combined with preadolescent vaccination had incremental cost-effectiveness ratios lower than Peru's 2005 per capita gross domestic product (GDP; US$ 2 852, in 2009 US$), and would be considered cost-effective. Preadolescent HPV vaccination, followed by enhanced HPV DNA screening in adult women, could prevent two out of three cervical cancer deaths. Several strategies would be considered "good value" for resources invested, provided vaccine prices are low. While financial costs imply substantial immediate investments, the high-value payoff should motivate creative mechanisms for financing and scale-up of delivery programs.

Habitable zone lifetimes of exoplanets around main sequence stars.

PubMed

Rushby, Andrew J; Claire, Mark W; Osborn, Hugh; Watson, Andrew J

2013-09-01

The potential habitability of newly discovered exoplanets is initially assessed by determining whether their orbits fall within the circumstellar habitable zone of their star. However, the habitable zone (HZ) is not static in time or space, and its boundaries migrate outward at a rate proportional to the increase in luminosity of a star undergoing stellar evolution, possibly including or excluding planets over the course of the star's main sequence lifetime. We describe the time that a planet spends within the HZ as its "habitable zone lifetime." The HZ lifetime of a planet has strong astrobiological implications and is especially important when considering the evolution of complex life, which is likely to require a longer residence time within the HZ. Here, we present results from a simple model built to investigate the evolution of the "classic" HZ over time, while also providing estimates for the evolution of stellar luminosity over time in order to develop a "hybrid" HZ model. These models return estimates for the HZ lifetimes of Earth and 7 confirmed HZ exoplanets and 27 unconfirmed Kepler candidates. The HZ lifetime for Earth ranges between 6.29 and 7.79×10⁹ years (Gyr). The 7 exoplanets fall in a range between ∼1 and 54.72 Gyr, while the 27 Kepler candidate planets' HZ lifetimes range between 0.43 and 18.8 Gyr. Our results show that exoplanet HD 85512b is no longer within the HZ, assuming it has an Earth analog atmosphere. The HZ lifetime should be considered in future models of planetary habitability as setting an upper limit on the lifetime of any potential exoplanetary biosphere, and also for identifying planets of high astrobiological potential for continued observational or modeling campaigns.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of atypical long-acting antipsychotics for treating chronic schizophrenia in Finland.

PubMed

Einarson, Thomas R; Pudas, Hanna; Zilbershtein, Roman; Jensen, Rasmus; Vicente, Colin; Piwko, Charles; Hemels, Michiel E H

2013-09-01

In Finland, regional rates of schizophrenia exceed those in most countries, impacting the healthcare burden. This study determined the cost-effectiveness of long-acting antipsychotic (LAI) drugs paliperidone palmitate (PP-LAI), olanzapine pamoate (OLZ-LAI), and risperidone (RIS-LAI) for chronic schizophrenia. This study adapted a decision tree analysis from Norway for the Finnish National Health Service. Country-specific data were sought from the literature and public documents, guided by clinical experts. Costs of health services and products were retrieved from literature sources and current price lists. This simulation study estimated average 1-year costs for treating patients with each LAI, average remission days, rates of hospitalization and emergency room visits and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). PP-LAI was dominant. Its estimated annual average cost was €10,380/patient and was associated with 0.817 QALY; OLZ-LAI cost €12,145 with 0.810 QALY; RIS-LAI cost €12,074 with 0.809 QALY. PP-LAI had the lowest rates of hospitalization, emergency room visits, and relapse days. This analysis was robust against most variations in input values except adherence rates. PP-LAI was dominant over OLZ-LAI and RIS-LAI in 77.8% and 85.9% of simulations, respectively. Limitations include the 1-year time horizon (as opposed to lifetime costs), omission of the costs of adverse events, and the assumption of universal accessibility. In Finland, PP-LAI dominated the other LAIs as it was associated with a lower cost and better clinical outcomes.

Predicting a future lifetime through Box-Cox transformation.

PubMed

Yang, Z

1999-09-01

In predicting a future lifetime based on a sample of past lifetimes, the Box-Cox transformation method provides a simple and unified procedure that is shown in this article to meet or often outperform the corresponding frequentist solution in terms of coverage probability and average length of prediction intervals. Kullback-Leibler information and second-order asymptotic expansion are used to justify the Box-Cox procedure. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are also performed to evaluate the small sample behavior of the procedure. Certain popular lifetime distributions, such as Weibull, inverse Gaussian and Birnbaum-Saunders are served as illustrative examples. One important advantage of the Box-Cox procedure lies in its easy extension to linear model predictions where the exact frequentist solutions are often not available.

Drinking water as a proportion of total human exposure to volatile N-nitrosamines.

PubMed

Hrudey, Steve E; Bull, Richard J; Cotruvo, Joseph A; Paoli, Greg; Wilson, Margaret

2013-12-01

Some volatile N-nitrosamines, primarily N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), are recognized as products of drinking water treatment at ng/L levels and as known carcinogens. The U.S. EPA has identified the N-nitrosamines as contaminants being considered for regulation as a group under the Safe Drinking Water Act. Nitrosamines are common dietary components, and a major database (over 18,000 drinking water samples) has recently been created under the Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule. A Monte Carlo modeling analysis in 2007 found that drinking water contributed less than 2.8% of ingested NDMA and less than 0.02% of total NDMA exposure when estimated endogenous formation was considered. Our analysis, based upon human blood concentrations, indicates that endogenous NDMA production is larger than expected. The blood-based estimates are within the range that would be calculated from estimates based on daily urinary NDMA excretion and an estimate based on methylated guanine in DNA of lymphocytes from human volunteers. Our analysis of ingested NDMA from food and water based on Monte Carlo modeling with more complete data input shows that drinking water contributes a mean proportion of the lifetime average daily NDMA dose ranging from between 0.0002% and 0.001% for surface water systems using free chlorine or between 0.001% and 0.01% for surface water systems using chloramines. The proportions of average daily dose are higher for infants (zero to six months) than other age cohorts, with the highest mean up to 0.09% (upper 95th percentile of 0.3%). © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Reducing under-reporting of stigmatized health events using the List Experiment: results from a randomized, population-based study of abortion in Liberia.

PubMed

Moseson, Heidi; Massaquoi, Moses; Dehlendorf, Christine; Bawo, Luke; Dahn, Bernice; Zolia, Yah; Vittinghoff, Eric; Hiatt, Robert A; Gerdts, Caitlin

2015-12-01

Direct measurement of sensitive health events is often limited by high levels of under-reporting due to stigma and concerns about privacy. Abortion in particular is notoriously difficult to measure. This study implements a novel method to estimate the cumulative lifetime incidence of induced abortion in Liberia. In a randomly selected sample of 3219 women ages 15–49 years in June 2013 in Liberia, we implemented the ‘Double List Experiment’. To measure abortion incidence, each woman was read two lists: (A) a list of non-sensitive items and (B) a list of correlated non-sensitive items with abortion added. The sensitive item, abortion, was randomly added to either List A or List B for each respondent. The respondent reported a simple count of the options on each list that she had experienced, without indicating which options. Difference in means calculations between the average counts for each list were then averaged to provide an estimate of the population proportion that has had an abortion. The list experiment estimates that 32% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.29-0.34) of respondents surveyed had ever had an abortion (26% of women in urban areas, and 36% of women in rural areas, P-value for difference < 0.001), with a 95% response rate. The list experiment generated an estimate five times greater than the only previous representative estimate of abortion in Liberia, indicating the potential utility of this method to reduce under-reporting in the measurement of abortion. The method could be widely applied to measure other stigmatized health topics, including sexual behaviours, sexual assault or domestic violence.

Stability-Aware Geographic Routing in Energy Harvesting Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Hieu, Tran Dinh; Dung, Le The; Kim, Byung-Seo

2016-01-01

A new generation of wireless sensor networks that harvest energy from environmental sources such as solar, vibration, and thermoelectric to power sensor nodes is emerging to solve the problem of energy limitation. Based on the photo-voltaic model, this research proposes a stability-aware geographic routing for reliable data transmissions in energy-harvesting wireless sensor networks (EH-WSNs) to provide a reliable routes selection method and potentially achieve an unlimited network lifetime. Specifically, the influences of link quality, represented by the estimated packet reception rate, on network performance is investigated. Simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms an energy-harvesting-aware method in terms of energy consumption, the average number of hops, and the packet delivery ratio. PMID:27187414

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

PubMed

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical study of auroral omega bands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partamies, Noora; Weygand, James M.; Juusola, Liisa

2017-09-01

The presence of very few statistical studies on auroral omega bands motivated us to test-use a semi-automatic method for identifying large-scale undulations of the diffuse aurora boundary and to investigate their occurrence. Five identical all-sky cameras with overlapping fields of view provided data for 438 auroral omega-like structures over Fennoscandian Lapland from 1996 to 2007. The results from this set of omega band events agree remarkably well with previous observations of omega band occurrence in magnetic local time (MLT), lifetime, location between the region 1 and 2 field-aligned currents, as well as current density estimates. The average peak emission height of omega forms corresponds to the estimated precipitation energies of a few keV, which experienced no significant change during the events. Analysis of both local and global magnetic indices demonstrates that omega bands are observed during substorm expansion and recovery phases that are more intense than average substorm expansion and recovery phases in the same region. The omega occurrence with respect to the substorm expansion and recovery phases is in a very good agreement with an earlier observed distribution of fast earthward flows in the plasma sheet during expansion and recovery phases. These findings support the theory that omegas are produced by fast earthward flows and auroral streamers, despite the rarity of good conjugate observations.

System statistical reliability model and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lekach, V. S.; Rood, H.

1973-01-01

A digital computer code was developed to simulate the time-dependent behavior of the 5-kwe reactor thermoelectric system. The code was used to determine lifetime sensitivity coefficients for a number of system design parameters, such as thermoelectric module efficiency and degradation rate, radiator absorptivity and emissivity, fuel element barrier defect constant, beginning-of-life reactivity, etc. A probability distribution (mean and standard deviation) was estimated for each of these design parameters. Then, error analysis was used to obtain a probability distribution for the system lifetime (mean = 7.7 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). From this, the probability that the system will achieve the design goal of 5 years lifetime is 0.993. This value represents an estimate of the degradation reliability of the system.

Energy Savings Lifetimes and Persistence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Ian M.; Schiller, Steven R.; Todd, Annika

2016-02-01

This technical brief explains the concepts of energy savings lifetimes and savings persistence and discusses how program administrators use these factors to calculate savings for efficiency measures, programs and portfolios. Savings lifetime is the length of time that one or more energy efficiency measures or activities save energy, and savings persistence is the change in savings throughout the functional life of a given efficiency measure or activity. Savings lifetimes are essential for assessing the lifecycle benefits and cost effectiveness of efficiency activities and for forecasting loads in resource planning. The brief also provides estimates of savings lifetimes derived from amore » national collection of costs and savings for electric efficiency programs and portfolios.« less

Low temperature excitonic spectroscopy and dynamics as a probe of quality in hybrid perovskite thin films.

PubMed

Sarang, Som; Ishihara, Hidetaka; Chen, Yen-Chang; Lin, Oliver; Gopinathan, Ajay; Tung, Vincent C; Ghosh, Sayantani

2016-10-19

We have developed a framework for using temperature dependent static and dynamic photoluminescence (PL) of hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites (PVSKs) to characterize lattice defects in thin films, based on the presence of nanodomains at low temperature. Our high-stability PVSK films are fabricated using a novel continuous liquid interface propagation technique, and in the tetragonal phase (T > 120 K), they exhibit bi-exponential recombination from free charge carriers with an average PL lifetime of ∼200 ns. Below 120 K, the emergence of the orthorhombic phase is accompanied by a reduction in lifetimes by an order of magnitude, which we establish to be the result of a crossover from free carrier to exciton-dominated radiative recombination. Analysis of the PL as a function of excitation power at different temperatures provides direct evidence that the exciton binding energy is different in the two phases, and using these results, we present a theoretical approach to estimate this variable binding energy. Our findings explain this anomalous low temperature behavior for the first time, attributing it to an inherent fundamental property of the hybrid PVSKs that can be used as an effective probe of thin film quality.

Automatic segmentation of fluorescence lifetime microscopy images of cells using multiresolution community detection--a first study.

PubMed

Hu, D; Sarder, P; Ronhovde, P; Orthaus, S; Achilefu, S; Nussinov, Z

2014-01-01

Inspired by a multiresolution community detection based network segmentation method, we suggest an automatic method for segmenting fluorescence lifetime (FLT) imaging microscopy (FLIM) images of cells in a first pilot investigation on two selected images. The image processing problem is framed as identifying segments with respective average FLTs against the background in FLIM images. The proposed method segments a FLIM image for a given resolution of the network defined using image pixels as the nodes and similarity between the FLTs of the pixels as the edges. In the resulting segmentation, low network resolution leads to larger segments, and high network resolution leads to smaller segments. Furthermore, using the proposed method, the mean-square error in estimating the FLT segments in a FLIM image was found to consistently decrease with increasing resolution of the corresponding network. The multiresolution community detection method appeared to perform better than a popular spectral clustering-based method in performing FLIM image segmentation. At high resolution, the spectral segmentation method introduced noisy segments in its output, and it was unable to achieve a consistent decrease in mean-square error with increasing resolution. © 2013 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2013 Royal Microscopical Society.

Automatic Segmentation of Fluorescence Lifetime Microscopy Images of Cells Using Multi-Resolution Community Detection -A First Study

PubMed Central

Hu, Dandan; Sarder, Pinaki; Ronhovde, Peter; Orthaus, Sandra; Achilefu, Samuel; Nussinov, Zohar

2014-01-01

Inspired by a multi-resolution community detection (MCD) based network segmentation method, we suggest an automatic method for segmenting fluorescence lifetime (FLT) imaging microscopy (FLIM) images of cells in a first pilot investigation on two selected images. The image processing problem is framed as identifying segments with respective average FLTs against the background in FLIM images. The proposed method segments a FLIM image for a given resolution of the network defined using image pixels as the nodes and similarity between the FLTs of the pixels as the edges. In the resulting segmentation, low network resolution leads to larger segments, and high network resolution leads to smaller segments. Further, using the proposed method, the mean-square error (MSE) in estimating the FLT segments in a FLIM image was found to consistently decrease with increasing resolution of the corresponding network. The MCD method appeared to perform better than a popular spectral clustering based method in performing FLIM image segmentation. At high resolution, the spectral segmentation method introduced noisy segments in its output, and it was unable to achieve a consistent decrease in MSE with increasing resolution. PMID:24251410

Lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and risk of pancreatic cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

PubMed

Naudin, Sabine; Li, Kuanrong; Jaouen, Tristan; Assi, Nada; Kyrø, Cecilie; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Rebours, Vinciane; Védié, Anne-Laure; Boeing, Heiner; Kaaks, Rudolf; Katzke, Verena; Bamia, Christina; Naska, Androniki; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Berrino, Franco; Tagliabue, Giovanna; Palli, Domenico; Panico, Salvatore; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Peeters, Petra H; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B As; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Gram, Inger Torhild; Skeie, Guri; Chirlaque, Maria-Dolores; Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel; Barricarte, Aurelio; Quirós, Jose Ramón; Dorronsoro, Miren; Johansson, Ingegerd; Sund, Malin; Sternby, Hanna; Bradbury, Kathryn E; Wareham, Nick; Riboli, Elio; Gunter, Marc; Brennan, Paul; Duell, Eric J; Ferrari, Pietro

2018-03-09

Recent evidence suggested a weak relationship between alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk. In our study, the association between lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and the risk of PC was evaluated, including the type of alcoholic beverages and potential interaction with smoking. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, 1,283 incident PC (57% women) were diagnosed from 476,106 cancer-free participants, followed up for 14 years. Amounts of lifetime and baseline alcohol were estimated through lifestyle and dietary questionnaires, respectively. Cox proportional hazard models with age as primary time variable were used to estimate PC hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence interval (CI). Alcohol intake was positively associated with PC risk in men. Associations were mainly driven by extreme alcohol levels, with HRs comparing heavy drinkers (>60 g/day) to the reference category (0.1-4.9 g/day) equal to 1.77 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.95) and 1.63 (95% CI: 1.16, 2.29) for lifetime and baseline alcohol, respectively. Baseline alcohol intakes from beer (>40 g/day) and spirits/liquors (>10 g/day) showed HRs equal to 1.58 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.34) and 1.41 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.94), respectively, compared to the reference category (0.1-2.9 g/day). In women, HR estimates did not reach statistically significance. The alcohol and PC risk association was not modified by smoking status. Findings from a large prospective study suggest that baseline and lifetime alcohol intakes were positively associated with PC risk, with more apparent risk estimates for beer and spirits/liquors than wine intake. © 2018 IARC/WHO.

On the heterogeneity of fluorescence lifetime of room temperature ionic liquids: onset of a journey for exploring red emitting dyes.

PubMed

Ghosh, Anup; Chatterjee, Tanmay; Mandal, Prasun K

2012-06-25

An excitation and emission wavelength dependent non-exponential fluorescence decay behaviour of room temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) has been noted. Average fluorescence lifetimes have been found to vary by a factor of three or more. Red emitting dyes dissolved in RTILs are found to follow hitherto unobserved single exponential fluorescence decay behaviour.

Processes Affecting Variability of Fluorescence Signals from Benthic Targets in Shallow Waters

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-30

processes in the Department of Chemistry at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The model organisms used are primarily cultured zooxanthellae obtained from...and closed (Fm) photosystem II reaction centers in the zooxanthellae isolated from the fire coral, Montipora. The short lifetime curve corresponds...individual zooxanthellae strains, is highly correlated Figure 2. The correlation between the average fluorescence lifetimes, calculated from a four

Crude mortality and loss of life expectancy of patients diagnosed with urothelial carcinoma of the urinary bladder in Norway.

PubMed

Andreassen, Bettina K; Myklebust, Tor Å; Haug, Erik S

2017-02-01

Reports from cancer registries often lack clinically relevant information, which would be useful in estimating the prognosis of individual patients with urothelial carcinoma of the urinary bladder (UCB). This article presents estimates of crude probabilities of death due to UCB and the expected loss of lifetime stratified for patient characteristics. In Norway, 10,332 patients were diagnosed with UCB between 2001 and 2010. The crude probabilities of death due to UCB were estimated, stratified by gender, age and T stage, using flexible parametric survival models. Based on these models, the loss in expectation of lifetime due to UCB was also estimated for the different strata. There is large variation in the estimated crude probabilities of death due to UCB (from 0.03 to 0.76 within 10 years since diagnosis) depending on age, gender and T stage. Furthermore, the expected loss of life expectancy is more than a decade for younger patients with muscle-invasive UCB and between a few months and 5 years for nonmuscle-invasive UCB. The suggested framework leads to clinically relevant prognostic risk estimates for individual patients diagnosed with UCB and the consequence in terms of loss of lifetime expectation. The published probability tables can be used in clinical praxis for risk communication.

Lifetime attributable risk as an alternative to effective dose to describe the risk of cancer for patients in diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine.

PubMed

Andersson, Martin; Eckerman, Keith; Mattsson, Sören

2017-11-21

The aim of this study is to implement lifetime attributable risk (LAR) predictions of cancer for patients of various age and gender, undergoing diagnostic investigations or treatments in nuclear medicine and to compare the outcome with a population risk estimate using effective dose and the International Commission on Radiological Protection risk coefficients. The radiation induced risk of cancer occurrence (incidence) or death from four nuclear medicine procedures are estimated for both male and female between 0 and 120 years. Estimations of cancer risk are performed using recommended administered activities for two diagnostic ( 18 F-FDG and 99m Tc-phosphonate complex) and two therapeutic ( 131 I-iodide and 223 Ra-dichloride) radiopharmaceuticals to illustrate the use of cancer risk estimations in nuclear medicine. For 18 F-FDG, the cancer incidence for a male of 5, 25, 50 and 75 years at exposure is 0.0021, 0.0010, 0.0008 and 0.0003, respectively. For 99m Tc phosphonates complex the corresponding values are 0.000 59, 0.000 34, 0.000 27 and 0.000 13, respectively. For an 131 I-iodide treatment with 3.7 GBq and 1% uptake 24 h after administration, the cancer incidence for a male of 25, 50 and 75 years at exposure is 0.041, 0.029 and 0.012, respectively. For 223 Ra-dichloride with an administration of 21.9 MBq the cancer incidence for a male of 25, 50 and 75 years is 0.31, 0.21 and 0.09, respectively. The LAR estimations are more suitable in health care situations involving individual patients or specific groups of patients than the health detriment based on effective dose, which represents a population average. The detriment consideration in effective dose adjusts the cancer incidence for suffering of non-lethal cancers while LAR predicts morbidity (incidence) or mortality (cancer). The advantages of these LARs are that they are gender and age specific, allowing risk estimations for specific patients or subgroups thus better representing individuals in health care than effective dose.

Lifetime attributable risk as an alternative to effective dose to describe the risk of cancer for patients in diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, Martin; Eckerman, Keith; Mattsson, Sören

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to implement lifetime attributable risk (LAR) predictions of cancer for patients of various age and gender, undergoing diagnostic investigations or treatments in nuclear medicine and to compare the outcome with a population risk estimate using effective dose and the International Commission on Radiological Protection risk coefficients. The radiation induced risk of cancer occurrence (incidence) or death from four nuclear medicine procedures are estimated for both male and female between 0 and 120 years. Estimations of cancer risk are performed using recommended administered activities for two diagnostic (18F-FDG and 99mTc-phosphonate complex) and two therapeutic (131I-iodide and 223Ra-dichloride) radiopharmaceuticals to illustrate the use of cancer risk estimations in nuclear medicine. For 18F-FDG, the cancer incidence for a male of 5, 25, 50 and 75 years at exposure is 0.0021, 0.0010, 0.0008 and 0.0003, respectively. For 99mTc phosphonates complex the corresponding values are 0.000 59, 0.000 34, 0.000 27 and 0.000 13, respectively. For an 131I-iodide treatment with 3.7 GBq and 1% uptake 24 h after administration, the cancer incidence for a male of 25, 50 and 75 years at exposure is 0.041, 0.029 and 0.012, respectively. For 223Ra-dichloride with an administration of 21.9 MBq the cancer incidence for a male of 25, 50 and 75 years is 0.31, 0.21 and 0.09, respectively. The LAR estimations are more suitable in health care situations involving individual patients or specific groups of patients than the health detriment based on effective dose, which represents a population average. The detriment consideration in effective dose adjusts the cancer incidence for suffering of non-lethal cancers while LAR predicts morbidity (incidence) or mortality (cancer). The advantages of these LARs are that they are gender and age specific, allowing risk estimations for specific patients or subgroups thus better representing individuals in health care than effective dose.

Obsessional personality features in employed Japanese adults with a lifetime history of depression: assessment by the Munich Personality Test (MPT).

PubMed

Sakado, K; Sakado, M; Seki, T; Kuwabara, H; Kojima, M; Sato, T; Someya, T

2001-06-01

Although a number of studies have reported on the association between obsessional personality features as measured by the Munich Personality Test (MPT) "Rigidity" scale and depression, there has been no examination of these relationships in a non-clinical sample. The dimensional scores on the MPT were compared between subjects with and without lifetime depression, using a sample of employed Japanese adults. The odds ratio for suffering from lifetime depression was estimated by multiple logistic regression analysis. To diagnose a lifetime history of depression, the Inventory to Diagnose Depression, Lifetime version (IDDL) was used. The subjects with lifetime depression scored significantly higher on the "Rigidity" scale than the subjects without lifetime depression. In our logistic regression analysis, three risk factors were identified as each independently increasing a person's risk for suffering from lifetime depression: higher levels of "Rigidity", being of the female gender, and suffering from current depressive symptoms. The MPT "Rigidity" scale is a sensitive measure of personality features that occur with depression.

Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.

2000-01-01

Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

Wildfire smoke in the Siberian Arctic in summer: source characterization and plume evolution from airborne measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, J.-D.; Stohl, A.; Nédélec, P.; Arshinov, M. Yu.; Panchenko, M. V.; Shmargunov, V. P.; Law, K. S.; Belan, B. D.; Ciais, P.

2009-09-01

We present airborne measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), equivalent black carbon (EBC) and ultra fine particles over North-Eastern Siberia in July 2008 performed during the YAK-AEROSIB/POLARCAT experiment. During a "golden day" (11 July 2008) a number of biomass burning plumes were encountered with CO concentration enhancements of up to 500 ppb relative to a background of 90 ppb. Number concentrations of aerosols in the size range 3.5-200 nm peaked at 4000 cm-3 and the EBC content reached 1.4 μg m-3. These high concentrations were caused by forest fires in the vicinity of the landing airport in Yakutsk where during the descent measurements in fresh smoke could be made. We estimate a combustion efficiency of 90±3% based on CO and CO2 measurements. The emission factor of CO emitted was 59.6±15.2 g CO per kilogram of dry matter burned, suggesting an increase in the average northern hemispheric CO concentration of 3.0-7.2 ppb per million hectares of Siberian forest burned. For BC, we estimate an emission factor of 0.52±0.07 g BC kg-1, comparable to values reported in the literature. The emission ratio of ultra-fine particles (3.5-200 nm) was 26 cm-3 (ppb CO)-1, consistent with other airborne studies. The transport of identified biomass burning plumes was investigated using the FLEXPART Lagrangian model. Based on sampling of wildfire plumes from the same source but with different atmospheric ages derived from FLEXPART, we estimate that the e-folding lifetimes of EBC and ultra fine particles (between 3.5 and 200 nm in size) against removal and growth processes are 5.1 and 5.5 days, respectively, supporting lifetimes estimates used in various modelling studies.

Wildfire smoke in the Siberian Arctic in summer: source characterization and plume evolution from airborne measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, J.-D.; Stohl, A.; Nédélec, P.; Arshinov, M. Yu.; Panchenko, M. V.; Shmargunov, V. P.; Law, K. S.; Belan, B. D.; Ciais, P.

2009-12-01

We present airborne measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), equivalent black carbon (EBC) and ultra fine particles over North-Eastern Siberia in July 2008 performed during the YAK-AEROSIB/POLARCAT experiment. During a "golden day" (11 July 2008) a number of biomass burning plumes were encountered with CO mixing ratio enhancements of up to 500 ppb relative to a background of 90 ppb. Number concentrations of aerosols in the size range 3.5-200 nm peaked at 4000 cm-3 and the EBC content reached 1.4 μg m-3. These high concentrations were caused by forest fires in the vicinity of the landing airport in Yakutsk where measurements in fresh smoke could be made during the descent. We estimate a combustion efficiency of 90 ± 3% based on CO and CO2 measurements and a CO emission factor of 65.5 ± 10.8 g CO per kilogram of dry matter burned. This suggests a potential increase in the average northern hemispheric CO mixing ratio of 3.0-7.2 ppb per million hectares of Siberian forest burned. For BC, we estimate an emission factor of 0.52 ± 0.07 g BC kg-1, comparable to values reported in the literature. The emission ratio of ultra-fine particles (3.5-200 nm) was 26 cm-3 (ppb CO)-1, consistent with other airborne studies. The transport of identified biomass burning plumes was investigated using the FLEXPART Lagrangian model. Based on sampling of wildfire plumes from the same source but with different atmospheric ages derived from FLEXPART, we estimate that the e-folding lifetimes of EBC and ultra fine particles (between 3.5 and 200 nm in size) against removal and growth processes are 5.1 and 5.5 days respectively, supporting lifetime estimates used in various modelling studies.

Lifetime Costs of Prophylactic Mastectomies and Reconstruction versus Surveillance.

PubMed

Mattos, David; Gfrerer, Lisa; Reish, Richard G; Hughes, Kevin S; Cetrulo, Curtis; Colwell, Amy S; Winograd, Jonathan M; Yaremchuk, Michael J; Austen, William G; Liao, Eric C

2015-12-01

The past decade has seen an increasing prevalence of prophylactic mastectomy with decreasing ages of patients treated for breast cancer. Data are limited on the fiscal impacts of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy trends, and no study has compared bilateral prophylactic mastectomy with reconstruction to surveillance in high-risk patients. Lifetime third-party payer costs over 30 years were estimated with 2013 Medicare reimbursement rates. Costs were estimated for patients choosing contralateral or bilateral prophylactic mastectomy versus surveillance, with immediate reconstructions using a single-stage implant, tissue expander, or perforator-based free flap approach. Published cancer incidence rates predicted the percentage of surveillance patients that would require mastectomies. Sensitivity analyses were conducted that varied cost growth, discount rate, cancer incidence rate, and other variables. Lifetime costs and present values (3 percent discount rate) were estimated. Lifetime prophylactic mastectomy costs were lower than surveillance costs, $1292 to $1993 lower for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy and $15,668 to $21,342 lower for bilateral prophylactic mastectomy, depending on the reconstruction. Present value estimates were slightly higher for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy over contralateral surveillance but still cost saving for bilateral prophylactic mastectomy compared with bilateral surveillance. Present value estimates are also cost saving for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy when the modeled contralateral breast cancer incidence rate is increased to at least 0.6 percent per year. These findings are consistent with contralateral and bilateral prophylactic mastectomy being cost saving in many scenarios, regardless of the reconstructive option chosen. They suggest that physicians and patients should continue to receive flexibility in deciding how best to proceed clinically in each case.

Residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women.

PubMed

Si, Lei; Winzenberg, Tania M; Chen, Mingsheng; Jiang, Qicheng; Palmer, Andrew J

2015-06-01

To determine the residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women. A validated state-transition microsimulation model was used. Microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address the uncertainties in the model. All parameters including fracture incidence rates and mortality rates were retrieved from published literature. Simulated subjects were run through the model until they died to estimate the residual lifetime fracture risks. A 10 year time horizon was used to determine the 10 year fracture risks. We estimated the risk of only the first osteoporotic fracture during the simulation time horizon. The residual lifetime and 10 year risks of having the first osteoporotic (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) fracture for Chinese women aged 50 years were 40.9% (95% CI: 38.3-44.0%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3%) respectively. For men, the residual lifetime and 10 year fracture risks were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.5-9.8%) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.7%) respectively. The residual lifetime fracture risks declined with age, whilst the 10 year fracture risks increased with age until the short-term mortality risks outstripped the fracture risks. Residual lifetime and 10 year clinical vertebral fracture risks were higher than those of hip and wrist fractures in both sexes. More than one third of the Chinese women and approximately one tenth of the Chinese men aged 50 years are expected to sustain a major osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetimes. Due to increased fracture risks and a rapidly ageing population, osteoporosis will present a great challenge to the Chinese healthcare system. While national data was used wherever possible, regional Chinese hip and clinical vertebral fracture incidence rates were used, wrist fracture rates were taken from a Norwegian study and calibrated to the Chinese population. Other fracture sites like tibia, humerus, ribs and pelvis were not included in the analysis, thus these risks are likely to be underestimates. Fracture risk factors other than age and sex were not included in the model. Point estimates were used for fracture incidence rates, osteoporosis prevalence and mortality rates for the general population.

EOS Terra Terra Constellation Exit/Future Maneuver Plans Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mantziaras, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

This EOS Terra Constellation Exit/Future Maneuver Plans Update presentation will discuss brief history of Terra EOM work; lifetime fuel estimates; baseline vs. proposed plan origin; resultant exit orbit; baseline vs. proposed exit plan; long term orbit altitude; revised lifetime proposal and fallback options.

Lifetime Estimation of the Upper Stage of GSAT-14 in Geostationary Transfer Orbit.

PubMed

Jeyakodi David, Jim Fletcher; Sharma, Ram Krishan

2014-01-01

The combination of atmospheric drag and lunar and solar perturbations in addition to Earth's oblateness influences the orbital lifetime of an upper stage in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). These high eccentric orbits undergo fluctuations in both perturbations and velocity and are very sensitive to the initial conditions. The main objective of this paper is to predict the reentry time of the upper stage of the Indian geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle, GSLV-D5, which inserted the satellite GSAT-14 into a GTO on January 05, 2014, with mean perigee and apogee altitudes of 170 km and 35975 km. Four intervals of near linear variation of the mean apogee altitude observed were used in predicting the orbital lifetime. For these four intervals, optimal values of the initial osculating eccentricity and ballistic coefficient for matching the mean apogee altitudes were estimated with the response surface methodology using a genetic algorithm. It was found that the orbital lifetime from these four time spans was between 144 and 148 days.

Lifetime Estimation of the Upper Stage of GSAT-14 in Geostationary Transfer Orbit

PubMed Central

Jeyakodi David, Jim Fletcher; Sharma, Ram Krishan

2014-01-01

The combination of atmospheric drag and lunar and solar perturbations in addition to Earth's oblateness influences the orbital lifetime of an upper stage in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). These high eccentric orbits undergo fluctuations in both perturbations and velocity and are very sensitive to the initial conditions. The main objective of this paper is to predict the reentry time of the upper stage of the Indian geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle, GSLV-D5, which inserted the satellite GSAT-14 into a GTO on January 05, 2014, with mean perigee and apogee altitudes of 170 km and 35975 km. Four intervals of near linear variation of the mean apogee altitude observed were used in predicting the orbital lifetime. For these four intervals, optimal values of the initial osculating eccentricity and ballistic coefficient for matching the mean apogee altitudes were estimated with the response surface methodology using a genetic algorithm. It was found that the orbital lifetime from these four time spans was between 144 and 148 days. PMID:27437491

Averages of $b$-hadron, $c$-hadron, and $$\\tau$$-lepton properties as of summer 2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amhis, Y.; et al.

2014-12-23

This article reports world averages of measurements ofmore » $b$-hadron, $c$-hadron, and $$\\tau$$-lepton properties obtained by the Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG) using results available through summer 2014. For the averaging, common input parameters used in the various analyses are adjusted (rescaled) to common values, and known correlations are taken into account. The averages include branching fractions, lifetimes, neutral meson mixing parameters, $CP$ violation parameters, parameters of semileptonic decays and CKM matrix elements.« less

Morphological Properties of Slender Ca II H Fibrils Observed by Sunrise II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gafeira, R.; Lagg, A.; Solanki, S. K.; Jafarzadeh, S.; van Noort, M.; Barthol, P.; Blanco Rodríguez, J.; del Toro Iniesta, J. C.; Gandorfer, A.; Gizon, L.; Hirzberger, J.; Knölker, M.; Orozco Suárez, D.; Riethmüller, T. L.; Schmidt, W.

2017-03-01

We use seeing-free high spatial resolution Ca II H data obtained by the Sunrise observatory to determine properties of slender fibrils in the lower solar chromosphere. In this work we use intensity images taken with the SuFI instrument in the Ca II H line during the second scientific flight of the Sunrise observatory to identify and track elongated bright structures. After identification, we analyze theses structures to extract their morphological properties. We identify 598 slender Ca II H fibrils (SCFs) with an average width of around 180 km, length between 500 and 4000 km, average lifetime of ≈400 s, and average curvature of 0.002 arcsec-1. The maximum lifetime of the SCFs within our time series of 57 minutes is ≈2000 s. We discuss similarities and differences of the SCFs with other small-scale, chromospheric structures such as spicules of type I and II, or Ca II K fibrils.

An economic analysis comparison of stationary and dual-axis tracking grid-connected photovoltaic systems in the US Upper Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Wongyu; Pate, Michael B.; Warren, Ryan D.; Nelson, Ron M.

2018-05-01

This paper presents an economic analysis of stationary and dual-axis tracking photovoltaic (PV) systems installed in the US Upper Midwest in terms of life-cycle costs, payback period, internal rate of return, and the incremental cost of solar energy. The first-year performance and energy savings were experimentally found along with documented initial cost. Future PV performance, savings, and operating and maintenance costs were estimated over 25-year assumed life. Under the given assumptions and discount rates, the life-cycle savings were found to be negative. Neither system was found to have payback periods less than the assumed system life. The lifetime average incremental costs of energy generated by the stationary and dual-axis tracking systems were estimated to be 0.31 and 0.37 per kWh generated, respectively. Economic analyses of different scenarios, each having a unique set of assumptions for costs and metering, showed a potential for economic feasibility under certain conditions when compared to alternative investments with assumed yields.

Boulders on Ceres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroder, S. E.; Carsenty, U.; Neesemann, A.; Jaumann, R.; Marchi, S.; Mcfadden, L. A.; Otto, K.; Schenk, P.; Schulzeck, F.; Raymond, C. A.;

Life test of the InGaAs focal plane arrays detector for space applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xian-Liang; Zhang, Hai-Yan; Li, Xue; Huang, Zhang-Cheng; Gong, Hai-Mei

2017-08-01

The short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) InGaAs focal plane array (FPA) detector consists of infrared detector chip, readout integrated circuit (ROIC), and flip-chip bonding interconnection by Indium bump. In order to satisfy space application requirements for failure rates or Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), which can only be demonstrated with the large number of detectors manufactured, the single pixel in InGaAs FPAs was chosen as the research object in this paper. The constant-stress accelerated life tests were carried out at 70°C 80°C 90°C and100°C. The failed pixels increased gradually during more than 14000 hours at each elevated temperatures. From the random failure data the activation energy was estimated to be 0.46eV, and the average lifetime of a single pixel in InGaAs FPAs was estimated to be longer than 1E+7h at the practical operating temperature (5°C).

Why Johnny Can Be Average Today.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sturrock, Alan

1997-01-01

During a (hypothetical) phone interview with a university researcher, an elementary principal reminisced about a lifetime of reading groups with unmemorable names, medium-paced math problems, patchworked social studies/science lessons, and totally "average" IQ and batting scores. The researcher hung up at the mention of bell-curved assembly lines…

A 3-Component Mixture of Rayleigh Distributions: Properties and Estimation in Bayesian Framework

PubMed Central

Aslam, Muhammad; Tahir, Muhammad; Hussain, Zawar; Al-Zahrani, Bander

2015-01-01

To study lifetimes of certain engineering processes, a lifetime model which can accommodate the nature of such processes is desired. The mixture models of underlying lifetime distributions are intuitively more appropriate and appealing to model the heterogeneous nature of process as compared to simple models. This paper is about studying a 3-component mixture of the Rayleigh distributionsin Bayesian perspective. The censored sampling environment is considered due to its popularity in reliability theory and survival analysis. The expressions for the Bayes estimators and their posterior risks are derived under different scenarios. In case the case that no or little prior information is available, elicitation of hyperparameters is given. To examine, numerically, the performance of the Bayes estimators using non-informative and informative priors under different loss functions, we have simulated their statistical properties for different sample sizes and test termination times. In addition, to highlight the practical significance, an illustrative example based on a real-life engineering data is also given. PMID:25993475

A direct-measurement technique for estimating discharge-chamber lifetime. [for ion thrusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beattie, J. R.; Garvin, H. L.

1982-01-01

The use of short-term measurement techniques for predicting the wearout of ion thrusters resulting from sputter-erosion damage is investigated. The laminar-thin-film technique is found to provide high precision erosion-rate data, although the erosion rates are generally substantially higher than those found during long-term erosion tests, so that the results must be interpreted in a relative sense. A technique for obtaining absolute measurements is developed using a masked-substrate arrangement. This new technique provides a means for estimating the lifetimes of critical discharge-chamber components based on direct measurements of sputter-erosion depths obtained during short-duration (approximately 1 hr) tests. Results obtained using the direct-measurement technique are shown to agree with sputter-erosion depths calculated for the plasma conditions of the test. The direct-measurement approach is found to be applicable to both mercury and argon discharge-plasma environments and will be useful for estimating the lifetimes of inert gas and extended performance mercury ion thrusters currently under development.

The influence of parental divorce and alcohol abuse on adult offspring risk of lifetime suicide attempt in the United States.

PubMed

Alonzo, Dana; Thompson, Ronald G; Stohl, Mahlki; Hasin, Deborah

2014-05-01

The influences of parental divorce and alcohol abuse on adult offspring lifetime suicide attempt have not been examined in national data. This study analyzed data from the 2001-2002 NESARC to estimate main and interaction effects of parental divorce and alcohol abuse on lifetime suicide attempt. Adjusted for controls, parental divorce and parental alcohol abuse independently increased odds of lifetime suicide attempt. The effect of parental divorce was not significantly moderated by parental alcohol abuse. Further research is needed to examine whether additional parental and offspring psychiatric and substance use covariates attenuate the association between parental divorce and lifetime suicide attempt. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

Voids in mixed-cation silicate glasses: Studies by positron annihilation lifetime and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reben, M.; Golis, E.; Filipecki, J.; Sitarz, M.; Kotynia, K.; Jeleń, P.; Grelowska, I.

2014-08-01

PALS in comparison with FTIR studies have been applied to investigate the structure of different oxide glasses. Three components of the positron lifetime τ (τ1 para- and τ3 ortho-positronium and τ2 intermediate lifetime component) and their intensities were obtained. The results of the calculation of mean values of positron lifetimes for the investigated glasses showed the existence of a long-living component on the positron annihilation lifetime spectra. From the Tao-Eldrup formula we can estimate the size of free volume. On the basis of the measurements we can conclude that the size and fraction of free volume reaches the biggest value for the fused silica glass. The degree of network polymerisation increases void size.

Fatigue lifetime prediction of a reduced-diameter dental implant system: Numerical and experimental study.

PubMed

Duan, Yuanyuan; Gonzalez, Jorge A; Kulkarni, Pratim A; Nagy, William W; Griggs, Jason A

2018-06-16

To validate the fatigue lifetime of a reduced-diameter dental implant system predicted by three-dimensional finite element analysis (FEA) by testing physical implant specimens using an accelerated lifetime testing (ALT) strategy with the apparatus specified by ISO 14801. A commercially-available reduced-diameter titanium dental implant system (Straumann Standard Plus NN) was digitized using a micro-CT scanner. Axial slices were processed using an interactive medical image processing software (Mimics) to create 3D models. FEA analysis was performed in ABAQUS, and fatigue lifetime was predicted using fe-safe ® software. The same implant specimens (n=15) were tested at a frequency of 2Hz on load frames using apparatus specified by ISO 14801 and ALT. Multiple step-stress load profiles with various aggressiveness were used to improve testing efficiency. Fatigue lifetime statistics of physical specimens were estimated in a reliability analysis software (ALTA PRO). Fractured specimens were examined using SEM with fractographic technique to determine the failure mode. FEA predicted lifetime was within the 95% confidence interval of lifetime estimated by experimental results, which suggested that FEA prediction was accurate for this implant system. The highest probability of failure was located at the root of the implant body screw thread adjacent to the simulated bone level, which also agreed with the failure origin in physical specimens. Fatigue lifetime predictions based on finite element modeling could yield similar results in lieu of physical testing, allowing the use of virtual testing in the early stages of future research projects on implant fatigue. Copyright © 2018 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life Years Lost and Lifetime Health Care Expenditures Associated With Diabetes in the U.S., National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000

PubMed Central

Leung, Man-Yee Mallory; Pollack, Lisa M.; Colditz, Graham A.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE This study analyzed the lifetime health care expenditures and life years lost associated with diabetes in the U.S. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1997 to 2000, and the NHIS Linked Mortality Public-use Files with a mortality follow-up to 2006 were used to estimate age-, race-, sex-, and BMI-specific risk of diabetes, mortality, and annual health care expenditures for both patients with diabetes and those without diabetes. A Markov model populated by the risk and cost estimates was used to compute life years and total lifetime health care expenditures by age, race, sex, and BMI classifications for patients with diabetes and without diabetes. RESULTS Predicted life expectancy for patients with diabetes and without diabetes demonstrated an inverted U shape across most BMI classifications, with highest life expectancy being for the overweight. Lifetime health care expenditures were higher for whites than blacks and for females than males. Using U.S. adults aged 50 years as an example, we found that diabetic white females with a BMI >40 kg/m2 had 17.9 remaining life years and lifetime health expenditures of $185,609, whereas diabetic white females with normal weight had 22.2 remaining life years and lifetime health expenditures of $183,704. CONCLUSIONS Our results show that diabetes is associated with large decreases in life expectancy and large increases in lifetime health care expenditures. In addition to decreasing life expectancy by 3.3 to 18.7 years, diabetes increased lifetime health care expenditures by $8,946 to $159,380 depending on age-race-sex-BMI classification groups. PMID:25552420

Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Liu, Jing; Wang, Wei; Wang, Miao; Qi, Yue; Xie, Wuxiang; Li, Yan; Sun, Jiayi; Liu, Jun; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

Objective: Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China. Methods: The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35–84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35–60 years. Results: A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35–40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8–10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35–60 years at baseline. Conclusion: In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation. PMID:27512963

Lifetime anxiety disorder and current anxiety symptoms associated with hastened depressive recurrence in bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Shah, Saloni; Kim, Jane P; Park, Dong Yeon; Kim, Hyun; Yuen, Laura D; Do, Dennis; Dell'Osso, Bernardo; Hooshmand, Farnaz; Miller, Shefali; Wang, Po W; Ketter, Terence A

2017-09-01

To assess differential relationships between lifetime anxiety disorder/current anxiety symptoms and longitudinal depressive severity in bipolar disorder (BD). Stanford BD Clinic outpatients enrolled during 2000-2011 were assessed with the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for BD (STEP-BD) Affective Disorders Evaluation and followed with the STEP-BD Clinical Monitoring Form while receiving naturalistic treatment for up to two years. Baseline unfavorable illness characteristics/current mood symptoms and times to depressive recurrence/recovery were compared in patients with versus without lifetime anxiety disorder/current anxiety symptoms. Among 105 currently recovered patients, lifetime anxiety disorder was significantly associated with 10/27 (37.0%) demographic/other unfavorable illness characteristics/current mood symptoms/current psychotropics, hastened depressive recurrence (driven by earlier onset age), and a significantly (> two-fold) higher Kaplan-Meier estimated depressive recurrence rate, whereas current anxiety symptoms were significantly associated with 10/27 (37.0%) demographic/other unfavorable illness characteristics/current mood symptoms/current psychotropics and hastened depressive recurrence (driven by lifetime anxiety disorder), but only a numerically higher Kaplan-Meier estimated depressive recurrence rate. In contrast, among 153 currently depressed patients, lifetime anxiety disorder/current anxiety symptoms were not significantly associated with time to depressive recovery or depressive recovery rate. American tertiary BD clinic referral sample, open naturalistic treatment. Research is needed regarding differential relationships between lifetime anxiety disorder and current anxiety symptoms and hastened/delayed depressive recurrence/recovery - specifically whether lifetime anxiety disorder versus current anxiety symptoms has marginally more robust association with hastened depressive recurrence, and whether both have marginally more robust associations with hastened depressive recurrence versus delayed depressive recovery, and related clinical implications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Whole-Body Lifetime Occupational Lead Exposure and Risk of Parkinson’s Disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coon , Steven; Stark, Azadeh; Peterson, Edward

2006-12-01

We enrolled 121 PD patients and 414 age-, sex-, and race-, frequency-matched controls in a case–control study. As an indicator of chronic Pb exposure, we measured concentrations of tibial and calcaneal bone Pb stores using 109Cadmium excited K-series X-ray fluorescence. As an indicator of recent exposure, we measured blood Pb concentration. We collected occupational data on participants from 18 years of age until the age at enrollment, and an industrial hygienist determined the duration and intensity of environmental Pb exposure. We employed physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling to combine these data, and we estimated whole-body lifetime Pb exposures for each individual.more » Logistic regression analysis produced estimates of PD risk by quartile of lifetime Pb exposure.« less

Statistical approaches to lifetime measurements with restricted observation times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X. C.; Zeng, Q.; Litvinov, Yu. A.; Tu, X. L.; Walker, P. M.; Wang, M.; Wang, Q.; Yue, K.; Zhang, Y. H.

2017-09-01

Two generic methods based on frequentism and Bayesianism are presented in this work aiming to adequately estimate decay lifetimes from measured data, while accounting for restricted observation times in the measurements. All the experimental scenarios that can possibly arise from the observation constraints are treated systematically and formulas are derived. The methods are then tested against the decay data of bare isomeric 44+94mRu, which were measured using isochronous mass spectrometry with a timing detector at the CSRe in Lanzhou, China. Applying both methods in three distinct scenarios yields six different but consistent lifetime estimates. The deduced values are all in good agreement with a prediction based on the neutral-atom value modified to take the absence of internal conversion into account. Potential applications of such methods are discussed.

Lifetime Prevalence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Two American Indian Reservation Populations

PubMed Central

Beals, Janette; Manson, Spero M.; Croy, Calvin; Klein, Suzell A.; Whitesell, Nancy Rumbaugh; Mitchell, Christina M.

2015-01-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been found to be more common among American Indian populations than among other Americans. A complex diagnosis, the assessment methods for PTSD have varied across epidemiological studies, especially in terms of the trauma criteria. Here, we examined data from the American Indian Service Utilization, Psychiatric Epidemiology, Risk and Protective Factors Project (AI-SUPERPFP) to estimate the lifetime prevalence of PTSD in two culturally distinct American Indian reservation communities, using two formulas for calculating PTSD prevalence. The AI-SUPERPFP was a cross-sectional probability sample survey conducted between 1997 and 2000. Southwest (n = 1,446) and Northern Plains (n = 1,638) tribal members living on or near their reservations, aged 15–57 years at time of interview, were randomly sampled from tribal rolls. PTSD estimates were derived based on both the single worst and 3 worst traumas. Prevalence estimates varied by ascertainment method: single worst trauma (lifetime: 5.9% to 14.8%) versus 3 worst traumas (lifetime, 8.9% to 19.5%). Use of the 3-worst-event approach increased prevalence by 28.3% over the single-event method. PTSD was prevalent in these tribal communities. These results also serve to underscore the need to better understand the implications for PTSD prevalence with the current focus on a single worst event. PMID:23900893

[Evaluation of the lifetime of nail markings during polio vaccinations in Chad].

PubMed

Quoc Cuong, Huong; Schlumberger, Martin; Garba Tchang, Salomon; Ould Cheikh, Dah; Savès, Marianne; Mallah, Barah; Demtilo Attilo, Jacques; Ngangro Mosurel, Ndeikoundam; Gamatié, Youssouf

2010-01-01

SID (Supplemental Immunization Days) is a special strategy intended to accelerate eradication of poliomyelitis in countries where it is still endemic (India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in Asia, and Nigeria in Africa). This strategy is also applied in Nigeria's neighbours (Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Benin). Since the poliomyelitis virus was imported from Nigeria in 2001, Chad has reported cases of poliomyelitis every year. After 30 SIDs in Chad and the inaccurate or false attribution of side-effects to polio vaccines, some groups persistently refuse polio vaccination. To ascertain the true coverage of SID, the Ministry of Health and several partners (WHO, UNICEF and Rotary) conduct external coverage evaluations, to identify the under-vaccinated areas where population may be refusing immunization. The nails of the children receiving vaccinations are marked with indelible ink and those markings are the best indicator of the area's actual SID coverage. When coverage investigators arrive and propose vaccination to all children not immunized during SID, mothers who wish to refuse vaccination may claim that the children's markings disappeared after a few days, due to bathing. WHO experts have found that markings applied to their own nails with the WHO-recommended markers persist a few weeks, but others suggested that the markings may disappear much faster among children living in a traditional tropical environment. Until now, the lifetime of these markings has not been tested among children in Africa. To determine the lifetime of the fingernail markings after SID and factors that influence this lifetime in children young than 5 years old in Chad. This prospective cohort study of 200 children (aged 0 to 59 months) took place from March to May 2009 in Milezi, a health zone north of Ndjamena, the capital of Chad, in central Africa. These children received nail markings on their left little finger with an indelible marker pen provided by WHO. The finger was monitored for 35 days, visually and by photographs, to determine the factors associated with the lifetime of the markings. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank methods were applied to estimate their survival curve and the variables significant for their lifetime; the Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios. Of the 184 children surveyed through the end of the study, the markings disappeared after 35 days of follow-up for 35% of them. The average lifetime of markings on these children was 28 days (SD: 4.95) and was associated, according to the Cox model, with 3 variables: the quality of the marking (RR = 0.335, 95% CI: 0.182-0.617, p < 0.001), playing with soil or mud (RR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.208-0.697, p = 0.002), and living in different blocks, after stratification for the variable of application of chemical products on the nail. The latter could not be included in the Cox model because it made the markings disappear instantly. WHO experts were right in stating that the lifetime of the markings was sufficient to estimate coverage accurately when external evaluation takes place one or two weeks after SID. The only action found to make markings disappear rapidly was the application of chemical products. Mothers who tell SID attendance evaluation teams that the marking disappeared with bathing are expressing a tacit refusal of vaccination. These evaluations, which take place well before the disappearance of markings, help to determine the precise coverage of SID.

Fluorescence lifetime imaging of oxygen in dental biofilm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerritsen, Hans C.; de Grauw, Cees J.

2000-12-01

Dental biofilm consists of micro-colonies of bacteria embedded in a matrix of polysaccharides and salivary proteins. pH and oxygen concentration are of great importance in dental biofilm. Both can be measured using fluorescence techniques. The imaging of dental biofilm is complicated by the thickness of the biofilms that can be up to several hundred micrometers thick. Here, we employed a combination of two-photon excitation microscopy with fluorescence lifetime imaging to quantify the oxygen concentration in dental biofilm. Collisional quenching of fluorescent probes by molecular oxygen leads to a reduction of the fluorescence lifetime of the probe. We employed this mechanism to measure the oxygen concentration distribution in dental biofilm by means of fluorescence lifetime imaging. Here, TRIS Ruthenium chloride hydrate was used as an oxygen probe. A calibration procedure on buffers was use to measure the lifetime response of this Ruthenium probe. The results are in agreement with the Stern-Volmer equation. A linear relation was found between the ratio of the unquenched and the quenched lifetime and the oxygen concentration. The biofilm fluorescence lifetime imaging results show a strong oxygen gradient at the buffer - biofilm interface and the average oxygen concentration in the biofilm amounted to 50 μM.

A Measurement of the D+(s) lifetime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Link, J.M.; Yager, P.M.; /UC, Davis

2005-04-01

A high statistics measurement of the D{sub s}{sup +} lifetime from the Fermilab fixed-target FOCUS photoproduction experiment is presented. They describe the analysis of the two decay modes, D{sub s}{sup +} {yields} {phi}(1020){pi}{sup +} and D{sub s}{sup +} {yields} {bar K}*(892){sup 0}K{sup +}, used for the measurement. The measured lifetime is 507.4 {+-} 5.5(stat.) {+-} 5.1(syst.) is using 8961 {+-} 105 D{sub s}{sup +} {yields} {phi}(1020){pi}{sup +} and 4680 {+-} 90 D{sub s}{sup +} {yields} {bar K}*(892){sup 0} K{sup +} decays. This is a significant improvement over the present world average.

Fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscopy.

PubMed

Dysli, Chantal; Wolf, Sebastian; Berezin, Mikhail Y; Sauer, Lydia; Hammer, Martin; Zinkernagel, Martin S

2017-09-01

Imaging techniques based on retinal autofluorescence have found broad applications in ophthalmology because they are extremely sensitive and noninvasive. Conventional fundus autofluorescence imaging measures fluorescence intensity of endogenous retinal fluorophores. It mainly derives its signal from lipofuscin at the level of the retinal pigment epithelium. Fundus autofluorescence, however, can not only be characterized by the spatial distribution of the fluorescence intensity or emission spectrum, but also by a characteristic fluorescence lifetime function. The fluorescence lifetime is the average amount of time a fluorophore remains in the excited state following excitation. Fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscopy (FLIO) is an emerging imaging modality for in vivo measurement of lifetimes of endogenous retinal fluorophores. Recent reports in this field have contributed to our understanding of the pathophysiology of various macular and retinal diseases. Within this review, the basic concept of fluorescence lifetime imaging is provided. It includes technical background information and correlation with in vitro measurements of individual retinal metabolites. In a second part, clinical applications of fluorescence lifetime imaging and fluorescence lifetime features of selected retinal diseases such as Stargardt disease, age-related macular degeneration, choroideremia, central serous chorioretinopathy, macular holes, diabetic retinopathy, and retinal artery occlusion are discussed. Potential areas of use for fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscopy will be outlined at the end of this review. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The effect of age at first calving and calving interval on productive life and lifetime profit in korean holsteins.

PubMed

Do, Changhee; Wasana, Nidarshani; Cho, Kwanghyun; Choi, Yunho; Choi, Taejeong; Park, Byungho; Lee, Donghee

2013-11-01

This study was performed to estimate the effect of age at first calving and first two calving intervals on productive life and life time profit in Korean Holsteins. Reproduction data of Korean Holsteins born from 1998 to 2004 and lactation data from 276,573 cows with birth and last dry date that calved between 2000 and 2010 were used for the analysis. Lifetime profit increased with the days of life span. Regression of Life Span on Lifetime profit indicated that there was an increase of 3,800 Won (approximately $3.45) of lifetime profit per day increase in life span. This is evidence that care of each cow is necessary to improve net return and important for farms maintaining profitable cows. The estimates of heritability of age at first calving, first two calving intervals, days in milk for lifetime, lifespan, milk income and lifetime profit were 0.111, 0.088, 0.142, 0.140, 0.143, 0.123, and 0.102, respectively. The low heritabilities indicated that the productive life and economical traits include reproductive and productive characteristics. Age at first calving and interval between first and second calving had negative genetic correlation with lifetime profit (-0.080 and -0.265, respectively). Reducing age at first calving and first calving interval had a positive effect on lifetime profit. Lifetime profit increased to approximately 2,600,000 (2,363.6) from 800,000 Won ($727.3) when age at first calving decreased to (22.3 month) from (32.8 month). Results suggested that reproductive traits such as age at first calving and calving interval might affect various economical traits and consequently influenced productive life and profitability of cows. In conclusion, regard of the age at first calving must be taken with the optimum age at first calving for maximum lifetime profit being 22.5 to 23.5 months. Moreover, considering the negative genetic correlation of first calving interval with lifetime profit, it should be reduced against the present trend of increase.

The Effect of Age at First Calving and Calving Interval on Productive Life and Lifetime Profit in Korean Holsteins

PubMed Central

Do, Changhee; Wasana, Nidarshani; Cho, Kwanghyun; Choi, Yunho; Choi, Taejeong; Park, Byungho; Lee, Donghee

2013-01-01

This study was performed to estimate the effect of age at first calving and first two calving intervals on productive life and life time profit in Korean Holsteins. Reproduction data of Korean Holsteins born from 1998 to 2004 and lactation data from 276,573 cows with birth and last dry date that calved between 2000 and 2010 were used for the analysis. Lifetime profit increased with the days of life span. Regression of Life Span on Lifetime profit indicated that there was an increase of 3,800 Won (approximately $3.45) of lifetime profit per day increase in life span. This is evidence that care of each cow is necessary to improve net return and important for farms maintaining profitable cows. The estimates of heritability of age at first calving, first two calving intervals, days in milk for lifetime, lifespan, milk income and lifetime profit were 0.111, 0.088, 0.142, 0.140, 0.143, 0.123, and 0.102, respectively. The low heritabilities indicated that the productive life and economical traits include reproductive and productive characteristics. Age at first calving and interval between first and second calving had negative genetic correlation with lifetime profit (−0.080 and −0.265, respectively). Reducing age at first calving and first calving interval had a positive effect on lifetime profit. Lifetime profit increased to approximately 2,600,000 (2,363.6) from 800,000 Won ($727.3) when age at first calving decreased to (22.3 month) from (32.8 month). Results suggested that reproductive traits such as age at first calving and calving interval might affect various economical traits and consequently influenced productive life and profitability of cows. In conclusion, regard of the age at first calving must be taken with the optimum age at first calving for maximum lifetime profit being 22.5 to 23.5 months. Moreover, considering the negative genetic correlation of first calving interval with lifetime profit, it should be reduced against the present trend of increase. PMID:25049735

[Assessment of mitochondrial metabolic oxidative state in living cardiomyocytes with spectrally-resolved fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy of NAD(P)H].

PubMed

Cheng, Ying; Ren, Mingming; Niu, Yanyan; Qiao, Jianhua; Aneba, S; Chorvat, D; Chorvatova, A

2009-12-01

The primary function of cardiac mitochondria is the production of ATP to support heart contraction. Examination of the mitochondrial redox state is therefore crucially important to sensitively detect early signs of mitochondrial function in pathophysiological conditions, such as ischemia, diabetes and heart failure. We study fingerprinting of mitochondrial metabolic oxidative state in living cardiomyocytes with spectrally-resolved fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy of NAD(P)H, the principal electron donor in mitochondrial respiration responsible for vital ATP supply. Here NAD(P)H is studied as a marker for non-invasive fluorescent probing of the mitochondrial function. NAD(P) H fluorescence is recorded in cardiac cells following excitation with 375nm UV-light and detection by spectrally-resolved time-correlated single photon counting (TCSPC), based on the simultaneous measurement of the fluorescence spectra and fluorescence lifetimes. Modulation of NADH production and/or mitochondrial respiration is tested to study dynamic characteristics of NAD(P) H fluorescence decay. Our results show that at least a 3-exponential decay model, with 0.4-0.7ns, 1.2-1.9ns and 8.0-13. Ons lifetime pools is necessary to describe cardiomyocyte autofluorescence (AF) within 420-560nm spectral range. Increased mitochondrial NADH production by ketone bodies enhanced the fluorescence intensity, without significant change in fluorescent lifetimes. Rotenone, the inhibitor of Complex I of the mitochondrial respiratory chain, increased AF intensity and shortened the average fluorescence lifetime. Dinitrophenol (DNP), an uncoupling agent of the mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation, lowered AF intensity, broadened the spectral shoulder at 520 nm and increased the average fluorescence lifetime. These effects are comparable to the study of NADH fluorescence decay in vitro. In the present contribution we demonstrated that spectrally-resolved fluorescence lifetime technique provides promising new tool for analysis of mitochondrial NAD(P) H fluorescence with good reproducibility in living cardiomyocytes. This approach will enhance our knowledge about cardiomyocyte oxidative metabolism and/or its dysfunction at a cellular level. In the future, this approach can prove helpful in the clinical diagnosis and treatment of mitochondrial disorder.

The global prevalence of common mental disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis 1980–2013

PubMed Central

Steel, Zachary; Marnane, Claire; Iranpour, Changiz; Chey, Tien; Jackson, John W; Patel, Vikram; Silove, Derrick

2014-01-01

Background: Since the introduction of specified diagnostic criteria for mental disorders in the 1970s, there has been a rapid expansion in the number of large-scale mental health surveys providing population estimates of the combined prevalence of common mental disorders (most commonly involving mood, anxiety and substance use disorders). In this study we undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis of this literature. Methods: We applied an optimized search strategy across the Medline, PsycINFO, EMBASE and PubMed databases, supplemented by hand searching to identify relevant surveys. We identified 174 surveys across 63 countries providing period prevalence estimates (155 surveys) and lifetime prevalence estimates (85 surveys). Random effects meta-analysis was undertaken on logit-transformed prevalence rates to calculate pooled prevalence estimates, stratified according to methodological and substantive groupings. Results: Pooling across all studies, approximately 1 in 5 respondents (17.6%, 95% confidence interval:16.3–18.9%) were identified as meeting criteria for a common mental disorder during the 12-months preceding assessment; 29.2% (25.9–32.6%) of respondents were identified as having experienced a common mental disorder at some time during their lifetimes. A consistent gender effect in the prevalence of common mental disorder was evident; women having higher rates of mood (7.3%:4.0%) and anxiety (8.7%:4.3%) disorders during the previous 12 months and men having higher rates of substance use disorders (2.0%:7.5%), with a similar pattern for lifetime prevalence. There was also evidence of consistent regional variation in the prevalence of common mental disorder. Countries within North and South East Asia in particular displayed consistently lower one-year and lifetime prevalence estimates than other regions. One-year prevalence rates were also low among Sub-Saharan-Africa, whereas English speaking counties returned the highest lifetime prevalence estimates. Conclusions: Despite a substantial degree of inter-survey heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, the findings confirm that common mental disorders are highly prevalent globally, affecting people across all regions of the world. This research provides an important resource for modelling population needs based on global regional estimates of mental disorder. The reasons for regional variation in mental disorder require further investigation. PMID:24648481

Genetic improvement of sow lifetime productivity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sow lifetime productivity is a complex, yet important trait, that would benefit commercial populations if improved. It has been estimated that a sow must produce 3 litters to cover the cost of replacement; yet, nearly half of the gilts retained for breeding are removed prior to producing 3 litters r...

Net merit as a measure of lifetime profit: 2010 revision

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The 2010 revision of net merit (NM$) updates a number of key economic values as well as milk utilization statistics. Members of Project S-1040, Genetic Selection and Crossbreeding To Enhance Reproduction and Survival of Dairy Cattle, provided updated incomes and expenses used to estimate lifetime pr...

The health loss from ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage: evidence from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS).

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Dewey, Helen M; Vos, Theo; Carter, Rob; Thrift, Amanda G

2010-05-14

People suffering different types of stroke have differing demographic characteristics and survival. However, current estimates of disease burden are based on the same underlying assumptions irrespective of stroke type. We hypothesized that average Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost from stroke would be different for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We used 1 and 5-year data collected from patients with first-ever stroke participating in the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We calculated case fatality rates, health-adjusted life expectancy, and quality-of-life (QoL) weights specific to each age and gender category. Lifetime 'health loss' for first-ever ischemic stroke and ICH surviving 28-days for the 2004 Australian population cohort was then estimated. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and sensitivity analyses (SA) were used to assess the impact of varying input parameters e.g. case fatality and QoL weights. Paired QoL data at 1 and 5 years were available for 237 NEMESIS participants. Extrapolating NEMESIS rates, 31,539 first-ever strokes were expected for Australia in 2004. Average discounted (3%) QALYs lost per first-ever stroke were estimated to be 5.09 (SD 0.20; SA 5.49) for ischemic stroke (n = 27,660) and 6.17 (SD 0.26; SA 6.45) for ICH (n = 4,291; p < 0.001). QALYs lost also differed according to gender for both subtypes (ischemic stroke: males 4.69 SD 0.38, females 5.51 SD 0.46; ICH: males 5.82 SD 0.67, females 6.50 SD 0.40). People with ICH incurred greater loss of health over a lifetime than people with ischemic stroke. This is explained by greater stroke related case fatality at a younger age, but longer life expectancy with disability after the first 12 months for people with ICH. Thus, studies of disease burden in stroke should account for these differences between subtype and gender. Otherwise, in countries where ICH is more common, health loss for stroke may be underestimated. Similar to other studies of this type, the generalisability of the results may be limited. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were used to provide a plausible range of variation for Australia. In countries with demographic and life expectancy characteristics comparable to Australia, our QoL weights may be reasonably applicable.

Major depression: the relative contribution of gender, MDMA, and cannabis use.

PubMed

Durdle, Heather; Lundahl, Leslie H; Johanson, Chris-Ellyn; Tancer, Manuel

2008-01-01

Previous research has suggested that 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA; ecstasy) users have elevated depressive symptomatology, although it is not clear whether this is due to MDMA or other drug use. This study aimed to investigate the contributions of MDMA and cannabis use to Major Depressive Disorder in MDMA users. A total of 226 MDMA users were studied. Participants (65% male) reported an average number of 35.8 uses of MDMA (SD = 45.6, range = 2-400). Participants were administered a Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. Twenty-six individuals (11.5%) met lifetime criteria for Major Depressive Disorder. High rates of lifetime Cannabis Abuse (30.1%) and Cannabis Dependence (12.4%) were reported. No association was found between number of uses of MDMA and Major Depressive Disorder. Those with lifetime major depression were found, however, to have higher rates of lifetime cannabis use disorder (adjusted OR = 2.40). A logistic regression indicated that lifetime cannabis use disorder, but not MDMA use, was significantly associated with lifetime Major Depressive Disorder. Stratified analyses suggested that for males, neither drug use variable was associated with major depression. For females, a lifetime cannabis use disorder (adjusted OR = 4.99), but not MDMA use, was associated with lifetime Major Depressive Disorder. Results of this study suggest that although MDMA use was not found to be significantly associated with major depression for either gender, a lifetime cannabis use disorder was significantly associated with lifetime major depression for female, but not male, users of MDMA.

Changes in blast zone albedo patterns around new martian impact craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daubar, I. J.; Dundas, C. M.; Byrne, S.; Geissler, P.; Bart, G. D.; McEwen, A. S.; Russell, P. S.; Chojnacki, M.; Golombek, M. P.

2016-03-01

"Blast zones" (BZs) around new martian craters comprise various albedo features caused by the initial impact, including diffuse halos, extended linear and arcuate rays, secondary craters, ejecta patterns, and dust avalanches. We examined these features for changes in repeat images separated by up to four Mars years. Here we present the first comprehensive survey of the qualitative and quantitative changes observed in impact blast zones over time. Such changes are most likely due to airfall of high-albedo dust restoring darkened areas to their original albedo, the albedo of adjacent non-impacted surfaces. Although some sites show drastic changes over short timescales, nearly half of the sites show no obvious changes over several Mars years. Albedo changes are more likely to occur at higher-latitude sites, lower-elevation sites, and at sites with smaller central craters. No correlation was seen between amount of change and Dust Cover Index, relative halo size, or historical regional albedo changes. Quantitative albedo measurements of the diffuse dark halos relative to their surroundings yielded estimates of fading lifetimes for these features. The average lifetime among sites with measurable fading is ∼15 Mars years; the median is ∼8 Mars years for a linear brightening. However, at approximately half of sites with three or more repeat images, a nonlinear function with rapid initial fading followed by a slow increase in albedo provides a better fit to the fading behavior; this would predict even longer lifetimes. The predicted lifetimes of BZs are comparable to those of slope streaks, and considered representative of fading by global atmospheric dust deposition; they last significantly longer than dust devil or rover tracks, albedo features that are erased by different processes. These relatively long lifetimes indicate that the measurement of the current impact rate by Daubar et al. (Daubar, I.J. et al. [2013]. Icarus 225, 506-516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2013.04.009) does not suffer significantly from overall under-sampling due to blast zones fading before new impact sites can be initially discovered. However, the prevalence of changes seen around smaller craters may explain in part their shallower size frequency distribution.

Changes in blast zone albedo patterns around new martian impact craters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daubar, Ingrid J.; Dundas, Colin; Byrne, Shane; Geissler, Paul; Bart, Gwen; McEwen, Alfred S.; Russell, Patrick; Chojnacki, Matthew; Golombek, M.P.

2016-01-01

“Blast zones” (BZs) around new martian craters comprise various albedo features caused by the initial impact, including diffuse halos, extended linear and arcuate rays, secondary craters, ejecta patterns, and dust avalanches. We examined these features for changes in repeat images separated by up to four Mars years. Here we present the first comprehensive survey of the qualitative and quantitative changes observed in impact blast zones over time. Such changes are most likely due to airfall of high-albedo dust restoring darkened areas to their original albedo, the albedo of adjacent non-impacted surfaces. Although some sites show drastic changes over short timescales, nearly half of the sites show no obvious changes over several Mars years. Albedo changes are more likely to occur at higher-latitude sites, lower-elevation sites, and at sites with smaller central craters. No correlation was seen between amount of change and Dust Cover Index, relative halo size, or historical regional albedo changes. Quantitative albedo measurements of the diffuse dark halos relative to their surroundings yielded estimates of fading lifetimes for these features. The average lifetime among sites with measurable fading is ∼15 Mars years; the median is ∼8 Mars years for a linear brightening. However, at approximately half of sites with three or more repeat images, a nonlinear function with rapid initial fading followed by a slow increase in albedo provides a better fit to the fading behavior; this would predict even longer lifetimes. The predicted lifetimes of BZs are comparable to those of slope streaks, and considered representative of fading by global atmospheric dust deposition; they last significantly longer than dust devil or rover tracks, albedo features that are erased by different processes. These relatively long lifetimes indicate that the measurement of the current impact rate by Daubar et al. (Daubar, I.J. et al. [2013]. Icarus 225, 506–516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2013.04.009) does not suffer significantly from overall under-sampling due to blast zones fading before new impact sites can be initially discovered. However, the prevalence of changes seen around smaller craters may explain in part their shallower size frequency distribution.

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengle, Thomas (Editor)

1989-01-01

Numerous topics in flight mechanics and estimation were discussed. Satellite attitude control, quaternion estimation, orbit and attitude determination, spacecraft maneuvers, spacecraft navigation, gyroscope calibration, spacecraft rendevous, and atmospheric drag model calculations for spacecraft lifetime prediction are among the topics covered.

Modelling lifetime data with multivariate Tweedie distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nor, Siti Rohani Mohd; Yusof, Fadhilah; Bahar, Arifah

2017-05-01

This study aims to measure the dependence between individual lifetimes by applying multivariate Tweedie distribution to the lifetime data. Dependence between lifetimes incorporated in the mortality model is a new form of idea that gives significant impact on the risk of the annuity portfolio which is actually against the idea of standard actuarial methods that assumes independent between lifetimes. Hence, this paper applies Tweedie family distribution to the portfolio of lifetimes to induce the dependence between lives. Tweedie distribution is chosen since it contains symmetric and non-symmetric, as well as light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions. Parameter estimation is modified in order to fit the Tweedie distribution to the data. This procedure is developed by using method of moments. In addition, the comparison stage is made to check for the adequacy between the observed mortality and expected mortality. Finally, the importance of including systematic mortality risk in the model is justified by the Pearson's chi-squared test.

Influence of processing conditions on point defects and luminescence centers in ZnO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, J.; Kitai, A. H.; Mascher, P.

1993-12-01

Positron lifetime spectroscopy and cathodoluminescence were employed to study luminescence centers in ZnO. The samples were high-purity polycrystalline ceramics sintered at temperatures ranging from 800 to 1400 C for 2 to 40 h. Scanning electron microscopy shows that as annealing temperatures and/or times increase, the average grain size increases and can reach 30 micron for samples sintered at 1200 C. At the same time, the positron bulk lifetime approaches theoretically estimated single-crystal values, while the integrated luminescence intensity increase significantly. A further increase of the sintering temperature beyond 1200 C results in a decrease in the luminescence intensity, in good agreement with the only weak luminescence observed in single-crystalline material. The positron lifetime spectra clearly show the existence of the dominant vacancy-type defect, most likely a complex involving V(sub Zn), or the divacancy, V(sub Zn)V(sub O), independent of sample thermal history. The concentration of this center steadily decreases with increasing sintering temperatures. It is concluded that the yellow luminescence centers are related to charged zinc vacancies trapped in the grain boundary regions. We propose that the observed broadness of the spectra likely originates from the modification of the electronic configuration of the luminescence centers due to their complex environment. A direct connection between the positron and the luminescence results could not be established; instead, they appear to reflect two relatively independent aspects of the samples. It could be shown, however, that positron annihilation measurements can be used effectively to monitor the evolution of the microstructure of the samples, in good agreement with scanning electron micrographs.

Occupational exposure to magnetic fields and the risk of brain tumors

PubMed Central

Coble, Joseph B.; Dosemeci, Mustafa; Stewart, Patricia A.; Blair, Aaron; Bowman, Joseph; Fine, Howard A.; Shapiro, William R.; Selker, Robert G.; Loeffler, Jay S.; Black, Peter M.; Linet, Martha S.; Inskip, Peter D.

2009-01-01

We investigated the association between occupational exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (MFs) and the risk of glioma and meningioma. Occupational exposure to MF was assessed for 489 glioma cases, 197 meningioma cases, and 799 controls enrolled in a hospital-based case–control study. Lifetime occupational history questionnaires were administered to all subjects; for 24% of jobs, these were supplemented with job-specific questionnaires, or “job modules,” to obtain information on the use of electrically powered tools or equipment at work. Job-specific quantitative estimates for exposure to MF in milligauss were assigned using a previously published job exposure matrix (JEM) with modification based on the job modules. Jobs were categorized as ≤1.5 mG, >1.5 to <3.0 mG, and ≥3.0 mG. Four exposure metrics were evaluated: (1) maximum exposed job; (2) total years of exposure >1.5 mG; (3) cumulative lifetime exposure; and (4) average lifetime exposure. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for the age, gender, and hospital site. The job modules increased the number of jobs with exposure ≥3.0 mG from 4% to 7% relative to the JEM. No statistically significant elevation in ORs or trends in ORs across exposure categories was observed using four different exposure metrics for the three tumor types analyzed. Occupational exposure to MFs assessed using job modules was not associated with an increase in the risk for glioma, glioblastoma, or meningioma among the subjects evaluated in this study. PMID:19234232

Collision lifetimes and impact statistics of near-Earth asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bottke, W. F., Jr.; Nolan, M. C.; Greenberg, R.

1993-01-01

We have examined the lifetimes of Near-Earth asteroids (NEA's) by directly computing the collision probabilities with other asteroids and with the terrestrial planets. We compare these to the dynamical lifetimes, and to collisional lifetimes assumed by other workers. We discuss the implications of the differences. The lifetimes of NEA's are important because, along with the statistics of craters on the Earth and Moon, they help us to compute the number of NEA's and the rate at which new NEA's are brought to the vicinity of the Earth. Assuming that the NEA population is in steady-state, the lifetimes determine the flux of new bodies needed to replenish the population. Earlier estimates of the lifetimes ignored (or incompletely accounted for) the differences in the velocities of asteroids as they move in their orbits, so our results differ from (for example) Greenberg and Chapman (1983, Icarus 55, 455) and Wetherill (1988, Icarus 76, 1) by factors of 2 to 10. We have computed the collision rates and relative velocities of NEA's with each other, the main-belt asteroids, and the terrestrial planets, using the corrected method described by Bottke et. al. (1992, GRL, in press). We find that NEA's typically have shorter collisional lifetimes than do main-belt asteroids of the same size, due to their high eccentricities, which typically give them aphelia in the main belt. Consequently, they spend a great deal of time in the main belt, and are moving much slower than the bodies around them, making them 'sitting ducks' for impacts with other asteroids. They cross the paths of many objects, and their typical collision velocities are much higher (10-15 km/s) than the collision velocities (5 km/s) among objects within the main belt. These factors combine to give them substantially shorter lifetimes than had been previously estimated.

Topics on distance correlation, feature screening and lifetime expectancy with application to Beaver Dam eye study data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Jing

This thesis includes 4 pieces of work. In Chapter 1, we present the work with a method for examining mortality as it is seen to run in families, and lifestyle factors that are also seen to run in families, in a subpopulation of the Beaver Dam Eye Study that has died by 2011. We find significant distance correlations between death ages, lifestyle factors, and family relationships. Considering only sib pairs compared to unrelated persons, distance correlation between siblings and mortality is, not surprisingly, stronger than that between more distantly related family members and mortality. Chapter 2 introduces a feature screening procedure with the use of distance correlation and covariance. We demonstrate a property for distance covariance, which is incorporated in a novel feature screening procedure based on distance correlation as a stopping criterion. The approach is further implemented to two real examples, namely the famous small round blue cell tumors data and the Cancer Genome Atlas ovarian cancer data Chapter 3 pays attention to the right censored human longevity data and the estimation of lifetime expectancy. We propose a general framework of backward multiple imputation for estimating the conditional lifetime expectancy function and the variance of the estimator in the right censoring setting and prove the properties of the estimator. In addition, we apply the method to the Beaver Dam eye study data to study human longevity, where the expected human lifetime are modeled with smoothing spline ANOVA based on the covariates including baseline age, gender, lifestyle factors and disease variables. Chapter 4 compares two imputation methods for right censored data, namely the famous Buckley-James estimator and the backward imputation method proposed in Chapter 3 and shows that backward imputation method is less biased and more robust with heterogeneity.

Lifetime excess cancer risk due to carcinogens in food and beverages: Urban versus rural differences in Canada.

PubMed

Cheasley, Roslyn; Keller, C Peter; Setton, Eleanor

2017-09-14

To explore differences in urban versus rural lifetime excess risk of cancer from five specific contaminants found in food and beverages. Probable contaminant intake is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of contaminant concentrations in combination with dietary patterns. Contaminant concentrations for arsenic, benzene, lead, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and tetrachloroethylene (PERC) were derived from government dietary studies. The dietary patterns of 34 944 Canadians from 10 provinces were available from Health Canada's Canadian Community Health Survey, Cycle 2.2, Nutrition (2004). Associated lifetime excess cancer risk (LECR) was subsequently calculated from the results of the simulations. In the calculation of LECR from food and beverages for the five selected substances, two (lead and PERC) were shown to have excess risk below 10 per million; whereas for the remaining three (arsenic, benzene and PCBs), it was shown that at least 50% of the population were above 10 per million excess cancers. Arsenic residues, ingested via rice and rice cereal, registered the greatest disparity between urban and rural intake, with LECR per million levels well above 1000 per million at the upper bound. The majority of PCBs ingestion comes from meat, with values slightly higher for urban populations and LECR per million estimates between 50 and 400. Drinking water is the primary contributor of benzene intake in both urban and rural populations, with LECR per million estimates of 35 extra cancers in the top 1% of sampled population. Overall, there are few disparities between urban and rural lifetime excess cancer risk from contaminants found in food and beverages. Estimates could be improved with more complete Canadian dietary intake and concentration data in support of detailed exposure assessments in estimating LECR.

The relationship between personality, dysfunctional parenting in childhood, and lifetime depression in a sample of employed Japanese adults.

PubMed

Sakado, K; Kuwabara, H; Sato, T; Uehara, T; Sakado, M; Someya, T

2000-10-01

Few studies have explored the relationship between personality, dysfunctional parenting in childhood, and adult depression. Parental rearing styles and personality scores as measured by the Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI) and the Interpersonal Sensitivity Measure (IPSM) were compared in a group of employed Japanese adults with and without a lifetime history of depression. The diagnosis was provided by the Inventory to Diagnose Depression, Lifetime version (IDDL). To estimate the effects of the PBI and the IPSM scores on lifetime depression, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed. Subjects with lifetime depression were seen to have significantly lower scores on the PBI 'care' and higher scores on the IPSM than the subjects without lifetime depression. Lower levels of maternal care and higher levels of 'interpersonal sensitivity' each independently increased the risk for lifetime depression. The findings of the present study may not be conclusive since the data were retrospectively obtained. Dysfunctional parenting and personality seem to be correlated by lifetime depression, but it is uncertain whether they are independent risk factors

Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

Poverty and Trends in Three Common Chronic Disorders.

PubMed

Pulcini, Christian D; Zima, Bonnie T; Kelleher, Kelly J; Houtrow, Amy J

2017-03-01

For asthma, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and autism spectrum disorder (ASD), the objectives were to (1) describe the percent increases in prevalence and comorbidity and how these vary by poverty status, and (2) examine the extent to which poverty status is a predictor of higher than average comorbid conditions. Secondary analyses of the National Survey of Children's Health for years 2003, 2007, and 2011-2012 were conducted to identify trends in parent reported lifetime prevalence and comorbidity among children with asthma, ADHD, and ASD and examine variation by sociodemographic characteristics, poverty status, and insurance coverage. Using 2011-2012 data, multivariable regression was used to examine whether poverty status predicted higher than average comorbid conditions after adjusting for other sociodemographic characteristics. Parent-reported lifetime prevalence of asthma and ADHD rose 18% and 44%, respectively, whereas the lifetime prevalence of ASD rose almost 400% (from 0.5% to 2%). For asthma, the rise was most prominent among the poor at 25.8%. For ADHD, the percent change by poverty status was similar (<100% federal poverty level [FPL]: 43.20%, 100% to 199% FPL: 52.38%, 200% to 399% FPL: 43.67%), although rise in ASD was associated with being nonpoor (200% to 399% FPL: 43.6%, ≥400% FPL: 36.0%). Publicly insured children with asthma, ADHD, and ASD also had significantly higher odds (1.9×, 1.6×, 3.0×, respectively) of having higher than average comorbidities. Poverty status differentially influenced parent-reported lifetime prevalence and comorbidities of these target disorders. Future research is needed to examine parent and system-level characteristics that may further explain poverty's variable impact. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Stroke thrombolysis: save a minute, save a day.

PubMed

Meretoja, Atte; Keshtkaran, Mahsa; Saver, Jeffrey L; Tatlisumak, Turgut; Parsons, Mark W; Kaste, Markku; Davis, Stephen M; Donnan, Geoffrey A; Churilov, Leonid

2014-04-01

Stroke thrombolysis is highly time-critical, but data on long-term effects of small reductions in treatment delays have not been available. Our objective was to quantify patient lifetime benefits gained from faster treatment. Observational prospective data of consecutive stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis in Australian and Finnish centers (1998-2011; n=2258) provided distributions of age, sex, stroke severity, onset-to-treatment times, and 3-month modified Rankin Scale in daily clinical practice. Treatment effects derived from a pooled analysis of thrombolysis trials were used to model the shift in 3-month modified Rankin Scale distributions with reducing treatment delays, from which we derived the expected lifetime and level of long-term disability with faster treatment. Each minute of onset-to-treatment time saved granted on average 1.8 days of extra healthy life (95% prediction interval, 0.9-2.7). Benefit was observed in all groups: each minute provided 0.6 day in old severe (age, 80 years; National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] score, 20) patients, 0.9 day in old mild (age, 80 years; NIHSS score, 4) patients, 2.7 days in young mild (age, 50 years; NIHSS score, 4) patients, and 3.5 days in young severe (age, 50 years; NIHSS score, 20) patients. Women gained slightly more than men over their longer lifetimes. In the whole cohort, each 15 minute decrease in treatment delay provided an average equivalent of 1 month of additional disability-free life. Realistically achievable small reductions in stroke thrombolysis delays would result in significant and robust average health benefits over patients' lifetimes. The awareness of concrete importance of speed could promote practice change.

Structural evaluations and temperature dependent photoluminescence characterizations of Eu3+-activated SrZrO3 hollow spheres for luminescence thermometry applications

PubMed Central

Das, Subrata; Som, Sudipta; Yang, Che-Yuan; Chavhan, Sudam; Lu, Chung-Hsin

2016-01-01

This research is focused on the temperature sensing ability of perovskite SrZrO3:Eu3+ hollow spheres synthesized via the sol-gel method followed by heating. The Rietveld refinement indicated that the precursors annealed at 1100 °C were crystallized to form orthorhombic SrZrO3. SrZrO3 particles exhibited non-agglomerated hollow spherical morphology with an average particle size of 300 nm. The UV-excited photoluminescence spectrum of SrZrO3:Eu3+ consisted of two regions. One region was associated with SrZrO3 trap emission, and the other one was related to the emission of Eu3+ ions. The intensity ratio of the emission of Eu3+ ions to the host emission (FIR) and the emission lifetime of Eu3+ ions were measured in the temperature range of 300–550 K. The sensitivity obtained via the lifetime method was 7.3× lower than that measured via the FIR. Within the optimum temperature range of 300–460 K, the as-estimated sensor sensitivity was increased from 0.0013 to 0.028 K−1. With a further increase in temperatures, the sensitivity started to decline. A maximum relative sensitivity was estimated to be 2.22%K−1 at 460 K. The resolutions in both methods were below 1K in the above temperature range. The results indicated the suitability of SrZrO3:Eu3+ for the distinct high temperature sensing applications. PMID:27189117

CFCI3 (CFC-11): UV Absorption Spectrum Temperature Dependence Measurements and the Impact on Atmospheric Lifetime and Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgillen, Max R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Burkholder, James B.

2014-01-01

CFCl3 (CFC-11) is both an atmospheric ozone-depleting and potent greenhouse gas that is removed primarily via stratospheric UV photolysis. Uncertainty in the temperature dependence of its UV absorption spectrum is a significant contributing factor to the overall uncertainty in its global lifetime and, thus, model calculations of stratospheric ozone recovery and climate change. In this work, the CFC-11 UV absorption spectrum was measured over a range of wavelength (184.95 - 230 nm) and temperature (216 - 296 K). We report a spectrum temperature dependence that is less than currently recommended for use in atmospheric models. The impact on its atmospheric lifetime was quantified using a 2-D model and the spectrum parameterization developed in this work. The obtained global annually averaged lifetime was 58.1 +- 0.7 years (2 sigma uncertainty due solely to the spectrum uncertainty). The lifetime is slightly reduced and the uncertainty significantly reduced from that obtained using current spectrum recommendations

Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model

PubMed Central

Fragoulakis, Vassilis; Maniadakis, Nikolaos

2013-01-01

Objective To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF) in terms of net tax revenue from the state’s perspective in Greece. Methods Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single individual and his/her lifetime transactions with governmental agencies. The model distinguished among three periods in the economic life cycle of an individual: (1) early life, when the government primarily contributes resources through child tax credits, health care, and educational expenses; (2) employment, when individuals begin returning resources through taxes; and (3) retirement, when the government expends additional resources on pensions and health care. The cost of a live birth with IVF was based on the modification of a previously published model developed by the authors. All outcomes were discounted at a 3% discount rate. The data inputs – namely, the economic or demographic variables – were derived from the National Statistical Secretariat of Greece and other relevant sources. To deal with uncertainty, bias-corrected uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, to examine the robustness of our results, other one-way sensitivity analyses were also employed. Results The cost of IVF per birth was estimated at €17,015 (95% UI: €13,932–€20,200). The average projected income generated by an individual throughout his/her productive life was €258,070 (95% UI: €185,376–€339,831). In addition, his/her life tax contribution was estimated at €133,947 (95% UI: €100,126–€177,375), while the discounted governmental expenses for elderly and underage individuals were €67,624 (95% UI: €55,211–€83,930). Hence, the net present value of IVF was €60,435 (95% UI: €33,651–€94,330), representing a 182% net return on investment. Results remained constant under various assumptions for the main model parameters. Conclusion State-funded IVF may represent good value for money in the Greek setting, since it has positive tax benefits for the government, notwithstanding its beneficial psychological effect on infertile couples. PMID:23818800

Ultrafast Physics Behind the Nonradiative Relaxation Process of Chromium Ions in Forsterite Crystals.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demos, Stavros Gregorios

The nonradiative relaxation following photoexcitation has been studied in Cr^{4+} -doped forsterite (Mg_2SiO _4) using picosecond laser excitation and ultrasensitive photon counting detection. The experimental techniques utilized were time resolved antiStokes Raman scattering and up-converted hot and ordinary luminescence. The up-converted hot luminescence technique allowed the investigation of the upper state nonradiative relaxation of the excited state manifold of Cr^{4+ }-doped forsterite. The excitation involves the absorption of two photons per photoexcited ion in a two-step absorption. Discrete peaks are observed in the hot up-converted luminescence spectrum and are attributed to the population of nonequilibrium vibronic levels during the deexcitation of the ions by phonon emission. This work reveals that the phonon modes participating in the initial steps of the nonradiative relaxation of the photoexcited ions have energies 218 +/- 20, 325 +/- 20, 365 +/- 20 and 513 +/- 12 cm^ {-1}. The shape of the luminescence spectral envelope suggests two electronic bottlenecks at ~2.1 and ~2.45 eV associated with slower rates of vibrational relaxation at different parts of the excited state manifold. Time resolved measurements indicated that the average time for phonon emission is of the order of hundreds of fs. Information on the nonequilibrium phonon dynamics of the 225, 335 and 370 cm^{-1} modes of forsterite has been obtained using time resolved Raman scattering. Laser pulses of 450 fs in duration and 590 nm in wavelength were used to excite the Cr ions 2.1 eV above the ground state. The probe pulses (obtained from the same laser) are monitoring the nonequilibrium phonon population through the intensity of the antiStokes Raman lines at various pump-probe delay times. Experiments were performed at room and liquid nitrogen temperatures. The observed nonequilibrium phonon populations are associated with the overall complex nonradiative decay following the excitation of the impurity Cr^{4+} ions. Using rate equations to describe the electron -lattice system, the nonradiative relaxation time and the phonon lifetimes were estimated by fitting to the experimental data. The nonradiative relaxation time is estimated to be in the order of few ps while the phonon lifetimes are of the order of 10 ps. Best fit suggests the presence of an electronic bottleneck immediately after photoexcitation with an estimated lifetime of 3 ps at room temperature.

Health care expenditures of children and adults with spina bifida in a privately insured U.S. population.

PubMed

Ouyang, Lijing; Grosse, Scott D; Armour, Brian S; Waitzman, Norman J

2007-07-01

We provide new estimates of medical care utilization and expenditures over the lifespan for persons living with spina bifida in the United States. Updated estimates are essential for calculations of lifetime costs and for economic evaluations of prevention and management strategies for spina bifida. We analyzed data from the 2001-2003 MarketScan database on paid medical and prescription drug claims of persons covered by employer-sponsored health insurance in the United States. Medical care utilization and expenditures during 2003 were analyzed for persons with a diagnosis of spina bifida recorded during 2001-2003 who had 12 months of coverage in a fee-for-service health plan. To calculate expenditures during infancy, a separate analysis was performed for those born during 2002 with claims and expenditures data during the first 12 months of life. We compared medical expenditures for persons with and without spina bifida by age groups. Average incremental medical expenditures comparing patients with spina bifida and those without were $41,460 per year at age 0, $14,070 at ages 1-17, $13,339 at ages 18-44, and $10,134 at ages 45-64. Children ages 1-17 years with spina bifida had average medical expenditures 13 times greater than children without spina bifida. Adults with spina bifida had average medical expenditures three to six times greater than adults without spina bifida in this privately insured population. Although per capita medical care utilization and expenditures are highest among children, adults constitute an important and growing share of the population living with spina bifida. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Phonon Lifetime Observation in Epitaxial ScN Film with Inelastic X-Ray Scattering Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Uchiyama, H; Oshima, Y; Patterson, R; Iwamoto, S; Shiomi, J; Shimamura, K

2018-06-08

Phonon-phonon scattering dominates the thermal properties in nonmetallic materials, and it directly influences device performance in applications. The understanding of the scattering has been progressing using computational approaches, and the direct and systematic observation of phonon modes that include momentum dependences is desirable. We report experimental data on the phonon dispersion curves and lifetimes in an epitaxially grown ScN film using inelastic x-ray scattering measurements. The momentum dependence of the optical phonon lifetimes is estimated from the spectral width, and the highest-energy phonon mode around the zone center is found to possess a short lifetime of 0.21 ps. A comparison with first-principles calculations shows that our observed phonon lifetimes are quantitatively explained by three-body phonon-phonon interactions.

Phonon Lifetime Observation in Epitaxial ScN Film with Inelastic X-Ray Scattering Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchiyama, H.; Oshima, Y.; Patterson, R.; Iwamoto, S.; Shiomi, J.; Shimamura, K.

2018-06-01

Phonon-phonon scattering dominates the thermal properties in nonmetallic materials, and it directly influences device performance in applications. The understanding of the scattering has been progressing using computational approaches, and the direct and systematic observation of phonon modes that include momentum dependences is desirable. We report experimental data on the phonon dispersion curves and lifetimes in an epitaxially grown ScN film using inelastic x-ray scattering measurements. The momentum dependence of the optical phonon lifetimes is estimated from the spectral width, and the highest-energy phonon mode around the zone center is found to possess a short lifetime of 0.21 ps. A comparison with first-principles calculations shows that our observed phonon lifetimes are quantitatively explained by three-body phonon-phonon interactions.

Averages of b-hadron, c-hadron, and τ-lepton properties as of summer 2016

DOE PAGES

Amhis, Y.; Banerjee, Sw.; Ben-Haim, E.; ...

2017-12-21

Here, this article reports world averages of measurements of b-hadron, c-hadron, and τ-lepton properties obtained by the Heavy Flavor Averaging Group using results available through summer 2016. For the averaging, common input parameters used in the various analyses are adjusted (rescaled) to common values, and known correlations are taken into account. The averages include branching fractions, lifetimes, neutral meson mixing parameters,more » $$C\\!P$$  violation parameters, parameters of semileptonic decays, and Cabbibo–Kobayashi–Maskawa matrix elements.« less

Averages of b-hadron, c-hadron, and τ-lepton properties as of summer 2016

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amhis, Y.; Banerjee, Sw.; Ben-Haim, E.

Here, this article reports world averages of measurements of b-hadron, c-hadron, and τ-lepton properties obtained by the Heavy Flavor Averaging Group using results available through summer 2016. For the averaging, common input parameters used in the various analyses are adjusted (rescaled) to common values, and known correlations are taken into account. The averages include branching fractions, lifetimes, neutral meson mixing parameters,more » $$C\\!P$$  violation parameters, parameters of semileptonic decays, and Cabbibo–Kobayashi–Maskawa matrix elements.« less

Lifetime exposure to arsenic in residential drinking water in Central Europe.

PubMed

Hough, Rupert Lloyd; Fletcher, Tony; Leonardi, Giovanni Sebastiano; Goessler, Walter; Gnagnarella, Patrizia; Clemens, Felicity; Gurzau, Eugen; Koppova, Kvetoslava; Rudnai, Peter; Kumar, Rajiv; Vahter, Marie

2010-06-01

Methods and results are presented for an arsenic exposure assessment integral to an epidemiological case-control study of arsenic and cancer-the European Commission funded ASHRAM (Arsenic Health Risk Assessment and Molecular Epidemiology) study carried out in some counties of Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. The exposure history of each participant (N = 1,392) was constructed by taking into account how much water they consumed (as water, in drinks and in food), sources of drinking water in their various residences over their lifetime, and the concentrations of arsenic in their various water supplies measured by Hydride Generation-Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (HG-AAS). Concentrations of arsenic in previous water supplies were either derived from contemporary analyses of the same source, or from routine historical data from measurements performed by the authorities in each country. Using this approach, 80% of the recorded lifetime residential history was matched to an arsenic concentration. Seven indices of current, life time, and peak exposure were calculated. The exposure indices were all log-normally distributed and the mean and median lifetime average concentrations were in Hungary 14.7 and 13.3 microg l(-1), Romania 3.8 and 0.7 microg l(-1) and in Slovakia 1.9 and 0.8 microg l(-1), respectively. Overall 25% of the population had average concentrations over 10 microg l(-1) and 8% with exposure over 50 microg l(-1). Careful assessment of arsenic in drinking water supplies (both current and previous) enabled the majority of study participants' cumulative lifetime of potential exposure to arsenic in residential water to be characterised.

Pinhole shifting lifetime imaging microscopy

PubMed Central

Ramshesh, Venkat K.; Lemasters, John J.

2009-01-01

Lifetime imaging microscopy is a powerful tool to probe biological phenomena independent of luminescence intensity and fluorophore concentration. We describe time-resolved imaging of long-lifetime luminescence with an unmodified commercial laser scanning confocal/multiphoton microscope. The principle of the measurement is displacement of the detection pinhole to collect delayed luminescence from a position lagging the rasting laser beam. As proof of principle, luminescence from microspheres containing europium (Eu3+), a red emitting probe, was compared to that of short-lifetime green-fluorescing microspheres and/or fluorescein and rhodamine in solution. Using 720-nm two-photon excitation and a pinhole diameter of 1 Airy unit, the short-lifetime fluorescence of fluorescein, rhodamine and green microspheres disappeared much more rapidly than the long-lifetime phosphorescence of Eu3+ microspheres as the pinhole was repositioned in the lagging direction. In contrast, repositioning of the pinhole in the leading and orthogonal directions caused equal loss of short- and long-lifetime luminescence. From measurements at different lag pinhole positions, a lifetime of 270 μs was estimated for the Eu3+ microspheres, consistent with independent measurements. This simple adaptation is the basis for quantitative 3-D lifetime imaging microscopy. PMID:19123648

A simple shape-free model for pore-size estimation with positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Ken; Hyodo, Toshio

2013-06-01

Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy is one of the methods for estimating pore size in insulating materials. We present a shape-free model to be used conveniently for such analysis. A basic model in classical picture is modified by introducing a parameter corresponding to an effective size of the positronium (Ps). This parameter is adjusted so that its Ps-lifetime to pore-size relation merges smoothly with that of the well-established Tao-Eldrup model (with modification involving the intrinsic Ps annihilation rate) applicable to very small pores. The combined model, i.e., modified Tao-Eldrup model for smaller pores and the modified classical model for larger pores, agrees surprisingly well with the quantum-mechanics based extended Tao-Eldrup model, which deals with Ps trapped in and thermally equilibrium with a rectangular pore.

Lifetime maps for orbits around Callisto using a double-averaged model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso dos Santos, Josué; Carvalho, Jean P. S.; Prado, Antônio F. B. A.; Vilhena de Moraes, Rodolpho

2017-12-01

The present paper studies the lifetime of orbits around a moon that is in orbit around its mother planet. In the context of the inner restricted three-body problem, the dynamical model considered in the present study uses the double-averaged dynamics of a spacecraft moving around a moon under the gravitational pulling of a disturbing third body in an elliptical orbit. The non-uniform distribution of the mass of the moon is also considered. Applications are performed using numerical experiments for the Callisto-spacecraft-Jupiter system, and lifetime maps for different values of the eccentricity of the disturbing body (Jupiter) are presented, in order to investigate the role of this parameter in these maps. The idea is to simulate a system with the same physical parameters as the Jupiter-Callisto system, but with larger eccentricities. These maps are also useful for validation and improvements in the results available in the literature, such as to find conditions to extend the available time for a massless orbiting body to be in highly inclined orbits under gravitational disturbances coming from the other bodies of the system.

Cost-Effectiveness of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement With a Self-Expanding Prosthesis Versus Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Matthew R.; Lei, Yang; Wang, Kaijun; Chinnakondepalli, Khaja; Vilain, Katherine A.; Magnuson, Elizabeth A.; Galper, Benjamin Z.; Meduri, Christopher U.; Arnold, Suzanne V.; Baron, Suzanne J.; Reardon, Michael J.; Adams, David H.; Popma, Jeffrey J.; Cohen, David J.

2016-01-01

Background Prior studies of the cost-effectiveness of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) have been based primarily on a single balloon-expandable system. Objectives The goal of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TAVR with a self-expanding prosthesis compared with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for patients with severe aortic stenosis and high surgical risk. Methods We performed a formal economic analysis on the basis of individual, patient-level data from the CoreValve U.S. High Risk pivotal trial. Empirical data regarding survival and quality of life (QOL) over 2 years, and medical resource use and hospital costs through 12 months were used to project life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and lifetime medical costs in order to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of TAVR versus SAVR from a U.S. perspective. Results Relative to SAVR, TAVR reduced initial length of stay an average of 4.4 days, decreased the need for rehabilitation services at discharge, and resulted in superior 1-month QOL. Index admission and projected lifetime costs were higher with TAVR than with SAVR (differences $11,260 and $17,849 per patient, respectively), whereas TAVR was projected to provide a lifetime gain of 0.32 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 0.41 life-years [LYs]) with 3% discounting. Lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were $55,090 per QALY gained and $43,114 per LY gained. Sensitivity analyses indicated that a reduction in the initial cost of TAVR by ~$1,650 would lead to an ICER <$50,000/QALY gained. Conclusions In a high-risk clinical trial population, TAVR with a self-expanding prosthesis provided meaningful clinical benefits compared with SAVR, with incremental costs considered acceptable by current U.S. standards. With expected modest reductions in the cost of index TAVR admissions, the value of TAVR compared with SAVR in this patient population would become high. PMID:26764063

Intimate Partner Violence and Help Seeking Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Shana Denise

2017-01-01

Intimate partner violence is a growing epidemic in our country. Statistics indicate that an estimated 47.1% of women experienced at least one act of psychological aggression by an intimate partner during their lifetime (Breiding et al., 2014); that is, almost half of women experience some form of violence in their lifetime. Furthermore, women…

Income Transfers and Assets of the Poor. Revised. Discussion Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziliak, James P.

Contrary to the predictions of the standard life-cycle model, many low lifetime-income households accumulate little wealth relative to their incomes compared to households with high lifetime income. This paper uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a correlated random-effects generalized model of moments estimator to decompose the…

Effects of reducing the frequency and duration criteria for binge eating on lifetime prevalence of bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder: implications for DSM-5.

PubMed

Trace, Sara E; Thornton, Laura M; Root, Tammy L; Mazzeo, Suzanne E; Lichtenstein, Paul; Pedersen, Nancy L; Bulik, Cynthia M

2012-05-01

We assessed the impact of reducing the binge eating frequency and duration thresholds on the diagnostic criteria for bulimia nervosa (BN) and binge eating disorder (BED). We estimated the lifetime population prevalence of BN and BED in 13,295 female twins from the Swedish Twin study of Adults: Genes and Environment employing a range of frequency and duration thresholds. External validation (risk to cotwin) was used to investigate empirical evidence for an optimal binge eating frequency threshold. The lifetime prevalence estimates of BN and BED increased linearly as the frequency criterion decreased. As the required duration increased, the prevalence of BED decreased slightly. Discontinuity in cotwin risk was observed in BN between at least four times per month and at least five times per month. This model could not be fit for BED. The proposed changes to the DSM-5 binge eating frequency and duration criteria would allow for better detection of binge eating pathology without resulting in a markedly higher lifetime prevalence of BN or BED. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

COPD uncovered: an international survey on the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] on a working age population.

PubMed

Fletcher, Monica J; Upton, Jane; Taylor-Fishwick, Judith; Buist, Sonia A; Jenkins, Christine; Hutton, John; Barnes, Neil; Van Der Molen, Thys; Walsh, John W; Jones, Paul; Walker, Samantha

2011-08-01

Approximately 210 million people are estimated to have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] worldwide. The burden of disease is known to be high, though less is known about those of a younger age. The aim of this study was to investigate the wider personal, economic and societal burden of COPD on a cross country working-age cohort. A cross-country [Brazil, China, Germany, Turkey, US, UK] cross-sectional survey methodology was utilised to answer the research questions. 2426 participants aged 45-67 recruited via a number of recruitment methods specific to each country completed the full survey. Inclusion criteria were a recalled physician diagnosis of COPD, a smoking history of > 10 pack years and the use of COPD medications in the previous 3 months prior to questioning. The survey included items from the validated Work Productivity and Activity Impairment [WPAI] scale and the EuroQoL 5 Dimension [EQ-5D] scale. Disease severity was measured using the 5-point MRC [Medical Research Council] dyspnoea scale as a surrogate measure. 64% had either moderate [n = 1012] or severe [n = 521] COPD, although this varied by country. 75% of the cohort reported at least one comorbid condition. Quality of life declined with severity of illness [mild, mean EQ-5D score = 0.84; moderate 0.58; severe 0.41]. The annual cost of healthcare utilisation [excluding treatment costs and diagnostic tests] per individual was estimated to be $2,364 [£1,500]. For those remaining in active employment [n: 677]: lost time from work cost the individual an average of $880 [£556] per annum and lifetime losses of $7,365 [£4,661] amounting to $596,000 [£377,000] for the cohort. 447 [~40%] of the working population had retired prematurely because of COPD incurring individual estimated lifetime income losses of $316,000 [£200,000] or a combined total of $141 m [£89.6 m]. As the mean age of retirees was 58.3 and average time since retirement was 4 years, this suggests the average age of retirement is around 54. This would mean a high societal and economic impact in all study countries, particularly where typical state retirement ages are higher, for example in Brazil, Germany and the UK [65] and the US [65,66,67], compared to Turkey [58 for women, 60 for men] and China [60]. Although generalisation across a broader COPD population is limited due to the varied participant recruitment methods, these data nevertheless suggest that COPD has significant personal, economic and societal burden on working age people. Further efforts to improve COPD diagnosis and management are required.

The Economic Gains of Achieving Reduced Alcohol Consumption Targets for Australia

PubMed Central

Magnus, Anne; Cadilhac, Dominique; Sheppard, Lauren; Cumming, Toby; Pearce, Dora; Carter, Rob

2012-01-01

Objectives. To inform prevention policy, we estimated the economic benefits to health, production, and leisure in the 2008 Australian population of a realistic target reduction in per capita annual adult alcohol consumption. Methods. We chose a target of 6.4 liters annually per capita on average. We modeled lifetime health benefits as fewer incident cases of alcohol-related disease, deaths, and disability adjusted life years. We estimated production gains with surveyed participation and absenteeism rates. We valued gains with friction cost and human capital methods. We estimated and valued household production and leisure gains from time-use surveys. Results. A reduction of 3.4 liters of alcohol consumed annually per capita would result in one third fewer incident cases of disease (98 000), deaths (380), working days lost (5 million), days of home-based production lost (54 000), and a A$ 789-million health sector cost reduction. Workforce production had a A$ 427 million gain when we used the friction cost method. By contrast, we estimated a loss of 28 000 leisure days and 1000 additional early retirements. Conclusions. Economic savings and health benefits from reduced alcohol consumption may be substantial—particularly in the health sector with reduced alcohol-related disease and injury. PMID:22594720

Systems and methods for circuit lifetime evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heaps, Timothy L. (Inventor); Sheldon, Douglas J. (Inventor); Bowerman, Paul N. (Inventor); Everline, Chester J. (Inventor); Shalom, Eddy (Inventor); Rasmussen, Robert D. (Inventor)

2013-01-01

Systems and methods for estimating the lifetime of an electrical system in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes iteratively performing Worst Case Analysis (WCA) on a system design with respect to different system lifetimes using a computer to determine the lifetime at which the worst case performance of the system indicates the system will pass with zero margin or fail within a predetermined margin for error given the environment experienced by the system during its lifetime. In addition, performing WCA on a system with respect to a specific system lifetime includes identifying subcircuits within the system, performing Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) with respect to each subcircuit to determine whether the subcircuit fails EVA for the specific system lifetime, when the subcircuit passes EVA, determining that the subcircuit does not fail WCA for the specified system lifetime, when a subcircuit fails EVA performing at least one additional WCA process that provides a tighter bound on the WCA than EVA to determine whether the subcircuit fails WCA for the specified system lifetime, determining that the system passes WCA with respect to the specific system lifetime when all subcircuits pass WCA, and determining that the system fails WCA when at least one subcircuit fails WCA.

Heritability of lifetime ecstasy use.

PubMed

Verweij, Karin J H; Treur, Jorien L; Vreeker, Annabel; Brunt, Tibor M; Willemsen, Gonneke; Boomsma, Dorret I; Vink, Jacqueline M

2017-09-01

Ecstasy is a widely used psychoactive drug that users often take because they experience positive effects such as increased euphoria, sociability, elevated mood, and heightened sensations. Ecstasy use is not harmless and several immediate and long term side effects have been identified. Lifetime ecstasy use is likely to be partly influenced by genetic factors, but no twin study has determined the heritability. Here, we apply a classical twin design to a large sample of twins and siblings to estimate the heritability of lifetime ecstasy use. The sample comprised 8500 twins and siblings aged between 18 and 45 years from 5402 families registered at the Netherlands Twin Registry. In 2013-2014 participants filled out a questionnaire including a question whether they had ever used ecstasy. We used the classical twin design to partition the individual differences in liability to ecstasy use into that due to genetic, shared environmental, and residual components. Overall, 10.4% of the sample had used ecstasy during their lifetime, with a somewhat higher prevalence in males than females. Twin modelling indicated that individual differences in liability to lifetime ecstasy use are for 74% due to genetic differences between individuals, whereas shared environmental and residual factors explain a small proportion of its liability (5% and 21%, respectively). Although heritability estimates appeared to be higher for females than males, this difference was not significant. Lifetime ecstasy use is a highly heritable trait, which indicates that some people are genetically more vulnerable to start using ecstasy than others. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Relationship of soil terrestrial radionuclide concentrations and the excess of lifetime cancer risk in western Mazandaran Province, Iran.

PubMed

Abbaspour, M; Moattar, F; Okhovatian, A; Kharrat Sadeghi, M

2010-12-01

The main goal of this study is to lay out the map of the soil radionuclide activity concentrations and the terrestrial outdoor gamma dose rates in the western Mazandaran Province of Iran, and to present an evaluation scheme. Mazandaran Province was selected due to its special geographical characteristics, high population density and the long terrestrial and aquatic borders with the neighbouring countries possessing nuclear facilities. A total of 54 topsoil samples were collected, ranging from the Nour to Ramsar regions, and were based on geological conditions, vegetation coverage and the sampling standards outlined by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The excess lifetime cancer risks (ELCRs) were evaluated and the coordinates of sampling locations were determined by the global positioning system. The average terrestrial outdoor gamma dose rate was 612.38 ± 3707.93 nGy h(-1), at 1 m above the ground. The annual effective gamma dose at the western part of Mazandaran Province was 750 μSv, and the ELCR was 0.26 × 10(-2). Soil samples were analysed by gamma spectrometry with a high-purity germanium detector. The average (226)Ra, (232)Th, (40)K and (137)Cs activities were 1188.50 ± 7838.40, 64.92 ± 162.26, 545.10 ± 139.42 and 10.41 ± 7.86 Bq kg(-1), respectively. The average soil radionuclide concentrations at the western part of Mazandaran Province were higher than the worldwide range. The excess lifetime risks of cancer and the annual effective gamma doses were also higher than the global average.

Lifetime Incidence of CKD Stages 3–5 in the United States

PubMed Central

Grams, Morgan E.; Chow, Eric K.H.; Segev, Dorry L.; Coresh, Josef

2013-01-01

Background Lifetime risk estimates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) can motivate preventative behaviors at the individual level and forecast disease burden and health care utilization at the population level. Study Design Markov Monte Carlo model simulation study. Setting & Population Current U.S. black and white population. Model, Perspective, & Timeframe Markov models simulating kidney disease development, using an individual perspective and lifetime horizon. Outcomes Age-, sex- and race-specific residual lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+ (eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73m2), 3b+ (eGFR<45 ml/min/1.73 m2), and 4+ (eGFR<30 ml/min/1.73m2), and end stage renal disease (ESRD). Measurements State transition probabilities of developing CKD and of dying prior to its development were modeled using: 1) mortality rates from National Vital Statistics Report, 2) mortality risk estimates from a 2-million person meta-analysis, and 3) CKD prevalence from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Incidence, prevalence, and mortality related to ESRD were supplied by the US Renal Disease System. Results At birth, the overall lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+, 3b+, 4+, and ESRD were 59.1%, 33.6%, 11.5%, and 3.6%, respectively. Women experienced greater CKD risk yet lower ESRD risk than men; blacks of both sexes had markedly higher CKD stage 4+ and ESRD risk (lifetime risks for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively: 53.6%, 64.9%, 51.8%, and 63.6% [CKD stage 3a+]; 29.0%, 36.7%, 33.7%, and 40.2% [CKD stage 3b+]; 9.3%, 11.4%, 15.8%, and 18.5% [CKD stage 4+]; and 3.3%, 2.2%, 8.5%, and 7.8% [ESRD]). Risk of CKD increased with age, with approximately one-half of CKD stage 3a+ cases developing after 70 years of age. Limitations CKD incidence estimates were modeled from prevalence in the U.S. population. Conclusions In the U.S., the lifetime risk of developing CKD stage 3a+ is high, underscoring the importance of primary prevention and effective therapy to reduce CKD-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:23566637

Computional algorithm for lifetime exposure to antimicrobials in pigs using register data-The LEA algorithm.

PubMed

Birkegård, Anna Camilla; Andersen, Vibe Dalhoff; Halasa, Tariq; Jensen, Vibeke Frøkjær; Toft, Nils; Vigre, Håkan

2017-10-01

Accurate and detailed data on antimicrobial exposure in pig production are essential when studying the association between antimicrobial exposure and antimicrobial resistance. Due to difficulties in obtaining primary data on antimicrobial exposure in a large number of farms, there is a need for a robust and valid method to estimate the exposure using register data. An approach that estimates the antimicrobial exposure in every rearing period during the lifetime of a pig using register data was developed into a computational algorithm. In this approach data from national registers on antimicrobial purchases, movements of pigs and farm demographics registered at farm level are used. The algorithm traces batches of pigs retrospectively from slaughter to the farm(s) that housed the pigs during their finisher, weaner, and piglet period. Subsequently, the algorithm estimates the antimicrobial exposure as the number of Animal Defined Daily Doses for treatment of one kg pig in each of the rearing periods. Thus, the antimicrobial purchase data at farm level are translated into antimicrobial exposure estimates at batch level. A batch of pigs is defined here as pigs sent to slaughter at the same day from the same farm. In this study we present, validate, and optimise a computational algorithm that calculate the lifetime exposure of antimicrobials for slaughter pigs. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing the computed estimates to data on antimicrobial usage from farm records in 15 farm units. We found a good positive correlation between the two estimates. The algorithm was run for Danish slaughter pigs sent to slaughter in January to March 2015 from farms with more than 200 finishers to estimate the proportion of farms that it was applicable for. In the final process, the algorithm was successfully run for batches of pigs originating from 3026 farms with finisher units (77% of the initial population). This number can be increased if more accurate register data can be obtained. The algorithm provides a systematic and repeatable approach to estimating the antimicrobial exposure throughout the rearing period, independent of rearing site for finisher batches, as a lifetime exposure measurement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Venusian hydrology: Steady state reconsidered

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grinspoon, David H.

1992-01-01

In 1987, Grinspoon proposed that the data on hydrogen abundance, isotopic composition, and escape rate were consistent with the hypothesis that water on Venus might be in steady state rather than monotonic decline since the dawn of time. This conclusion was partially based on a derived water lifetime against nonthermal escape of approximately 10(exp 8) yr. De Bergh et al., preferring the earlier Pioneer Venus value of 200 ppm water to the significantly lower value detected by Bezard et al., found H2O lifetimes of greater than 10(exp 9) yr. Donahue and Hodges derived H2O lifetimes of 0.4-5 x 10 (exp 9) yr. Both these analyses used estimates of H escape flux between 0.4 x 10(exp 7) and 1 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from Rodriguez et al. Yet in more recent Monte Carlo modeling, Hodges and Tinsley found an escape flux due to charge exchange with hot H(+) of 2.8 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). McElroy et al. estimated an escape flux of 8 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from collisions with hot O produced by dissociative recombination of O2(+). Brace et al. estimated an escape flux of 5 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from ion escape from the ionotail of Venus. The combined estimated escape flux from all these processes is approximately 4 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). The most sophisticated analysis to date of near-IR radiation from Venus' nightside reveals a water mixing ratio of approximately 30 ppm, suggesting a lifetime against escape for water of less than 10(exp 8) yr. Large uncertainties remain in these quantities, yet the data point toward a steady state. Further evaluation of these uncertainties, and new evolutionary modeling incorporating estimates of the outgassing rate from post-Magellan estimates of the volcanic resurfacing rate are presented.

Gamma-widths, lifetimes and fluctuations in the nuclear quasi-continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guttormsen, M.; Larsen, A. C.; Midtbø, J. E.; Crespo Campo, L.; Görgen, A.; Ingeberg, V. W.; Renstrøm, T.; Siem, S.; Tveten, G. M.; Zeiser, F.; Kirsch, L. E.

2018-05-01

Statistical γ-decay from highly excited states is determined by the nuclear level density (NLD) and the γ-ray strength function (γSF). These average quantities have been measured for several nuclei using the Oslo method. For the first time, we exploit the NLD and γSF to evaluate the γ-width in the energy region below the neutron binding energy, often called the quasi-continuum region. The lifetimes of states in the quasi-continuum are important benchmarks for a theoretical description of nuclear structure and dynamics at high temperature. The lifetimes may also have impact on reaction rates for the rapid neutron-capture process, now demonstrated to take place in neutron star mergers.

Measurement of the Λb0 Lifetime Using Semileptonic Decays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abazov, V. M.; Abbott, B.; Abolins, M.; Acharya, B. S.; Adams, M.; Adams, T.; Aguilo, E.; Ahn, S. H.; Ahsan, M.; Alexeev, G. D.; Alkhazov, G.; Alton, A.; Alverson, G.; Alves, G. A.; Anastasoaie, M.; Ancu, L. S.; Andeen, T.; Anderson, S.; Andrieu, B.; Anzelc, M. S.; Arnoud, Y.; Arov, M.; Arthaud, M.; Askew, A.; Åsman, B.; Assis Jesus, A. C. S.; Atramentov, O.; Autermann, C.; Avila, C.; Ay, C.; Badaud, F.; Baden, A.; Bagby, L.; Baldin, B.; Bandurin, D. V.; Banerjee, S.; Banerjee, P.; Barberis, E.; Barfuss, A.-F.; Bargassa, P.; Baringer, P.; Barreto, J.; Bartlett, J. F.; Bassler, U.; Bauer, D.; Beale, S.; Bean, A.; Begalli, M.; Begel, M.; Belanger-Champagne, C.; Bellantoni, L.; Bellavance, A.; Benitez, J. A.; Beri, S. B.; Bernardi, G.; Bernhard, R.; Berntzon, L.; Bertram, I.; Besançon, M.; Beuselinck, R.; Bezzubov, V. A.; Bhat, P. C.; Bhatnagar, V.; Biscarat, C.; Blazey, G.; Blekman, F.; Blessing, S.; Bloch, D.; Bloom, K.; Boehnlein, A.; Boline, D.; Bolton, T. A.; Borissov, G.; Bos, K.; Bose, T.; Brandt, A.; Brock, R.; Brooijmans, G.; Bross, A.; Brown, D.; Buchanan, N. J.; Buchholz, D.; Buehler, M.; Buescher, V.; Burdin, S.; Burke, S.; Burnett, T. H.; Buszello, C. P.; Butler, J. M.; Calfayan, P.; Calvet, S.; Cammin, J.; Caron, S.; Carvalho, W.; Casey, B. C. K.; Cason, N. M.; Castilla-Valdez, H.; Chakrabarti, S.; Chakraborty, D.; Chan, K. M.; Chan, K.; Chandra, A.; Charles, F.; Cheu, E.; Chevallier, F.; Cho, D. K.; Choi, S.; Choudhary, B.; Christofek, L.; Christoudias, T.; Cihangir, S.; Claes, D.; Clément, C.; Clément, B.; Coadou, Y.; Cooke, M.; Cooper, W. E.; Corcoran, M.; Couderc, F.; Cousinou, M.-C.; Crépé-Renaudin, S.; Cutts, D.; Ćwiok, M.; da Motta, H.; Das, A.; Davies, G.; de, K.; de Jong, S. J.; de Jong, P.; de La Cruz-Burelo, E.; de Oliveira Martins, C.; Degenhardt, J. D.; Déliot, F.; Demarteau, M.; Demina, R.; Denisov, D.; Denisov, S. P.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Diesburg, M.; Dominguez, A.; Dong, H.; Dudko, L. V.; Duflot, L.; Dugad, S. R.; Duggan, D.; Duperrin, A.; Dyer, J.; Dyshkant, A.; Eads, M.; Edmunds, D.; Ellison, J.; Elvira, V. D.; Enari, Y.; Eno, S.; Ermolov, P.; Evans, H.; Evdokimov, A.; Evdokimov, V. N.; Ferapontov, A. V.; Ferbel, T.; Fiedler, F.; Filthaut, F.; Fisher, W.; Fisk, H. E.; Ford, M.; Fortner, M.; Fox, H.; Fu, S.; Fuess, S.; Gadfort, T.; Galea, C. F.; Gallas, E.; Galyaev, E.; Garcia, C.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Gavrilov, V.; Gay, P.; Geist, W.; Gelé, D.; Gerber, C. E.; Gershtein, Y.; Gillberg, D.; Ginther, G.; Gollub, N.; Gómez, B.; Goussiou, A.; Grannis, P. D.; Greenlee, H.; Greenwood, Z. D.; Gregores, E. M.; Grenier, G.; Gris, Ph.; Grivaz, J.-F.; Grohsjean, A.; Grünendahl, S.; Grünewald, M. W.; Guo, J.; Guo, F.; Gutierrez, P.; Gutierrez, G.; Haas, A.; Hadley, N. J.; Haefner, P.; Hagopian, S.; Haley, J.; Hall, I.; Hall, R. E.; Han, L.; Hanagaki, K.; Hansson, P.; Harder, K.; Harel, A.; Harrington, R.; Hauptman, J. M.; Hauser, R.; Hays, J.; Hebbeker, T.; Hedin, D.; Hegeman, J. G.; Heinmiller, J. M.; Heinson, A. P.; Heintz, U.; Hensel, C.; Herner, K.; Hesketh, G.; Hildreth, M. D.; Hirosky, R.; Hobbs, J. D.; Hoeneisen, B.; Hoeth, H.; Hohlfeld, M.; Hong, S. J.; Hooper, R.; Hossain, S.; Houben, P.; Hu, Y.; Hubacek, Z.; Hynek, V.; Iashvili, I.; Illingworth, R.; Ito, A. S.; Jabeen, S.; Jaffré, M.; Jain, S.; Jakobs, K.; Jarvis, C.; Jesik, R.; Johns, K.; Johnson, C.; Johnson, M.; Jonckheere, A.; Jonsson, P.; Juste, A.; Käfer, D.; Kahn, S.; Kajfasz, E.; Kalinin, A. M.; Kalk, J. R.; Kalk, J. M.; Kappler, S.; Karmanov, D.; Kasper, J.; Kasper, P.; Katsanos, I.; Kau, D.; Kaur, R.; Kaushik, V.; Kehoe, R.; Kermiche, S.; Khalatyan, N.; Khanov, A.; Kharchilava, A.; Kharzheev, Y. M.; Khatidze, D.; Kim, H.; Kim, T. J.; Kirby, M. H.; Kirsch, M.; Klima, B.; Kohli, J. M.; Konrath, J.-P.; Kopal, M.; Korablev, V. M.; Kothari, B.; Kozelov, A. V.; Krop, D.; Kryemadhi, A.; Kuhl, T.; Kumar, A.; Kunori, S.; Kupco, A.; Kurča, T.; Kvita, J.; Lacroix, F.; Lam, D.; Lammers, S.; Landsberg, G.; Lazoflores, J.; Lebrun, P.; Lee, W. M.; Leflat, A.; Lehner, F.; Lellouch, J.; Lesne, V.; Leveque, J.; Lewin, M.; Lewis, P.; Li, J.; Li, Q. Z.; Li, L.; Lietti, S. M.; Lima, J. G. R.; Lincoln, D.; Linnemann, J.; Lipaev, V. V.; Lipton, R.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Lobo, L.; Lobodenko, A.; Lokajicek, M.; Lounis, A.; Love, P.; Lubatti, H. J.; Lyon, A. L.; Maciel, A. K. A.; Mackin, D.; Madaras, R. J.; Mättig, P.; Magass, C.; Magerkurth, A.; Makovec, N.; Mal, P. K.; Malbouisson, H. B.; Malik, S.; Malyshev, V. L.; Mao, H. S.; Maravin, Y.; Martin, B.; McCarthy, R.; Melnitchouk, A.; Mendes, A.; Mendoza, L.; Mercadante, P. G.; Merkin, M.; Merritt, K. W.; Meyer, J.; Meyer, A.; Michaut, M.; Millet, T.; Mitrevski, J.; Molina, J.; Mommsen, R. K.; Mondal, N. K.; Moore, R. W.; Moulik, T.; Muanza, G. S.; Mulders, M.; Mulhearn, M.; Mundal, O.; Mundim, L.; Nagy, E.; Naimuddin, M.; Narain, M.; Naumann, N. A.; Neal, H. A.; Negret, J. P.; Neustroev, P.; Nilsen, H.; Nomerotski, A.; Novaes, S. F.; Nunnemann, T.; O'Dell, V.; O'Neil, D. C.; Obrant, G.; Ochando, C.; Onoprienko, D.; Oshima, N.; Osta, J.; Otec, R.; Otero Y Garzón, G. J.; Owen, M.; Padley, P.; Pangilinan, M.; Parashar, N.; Park, S.-J.; Park, S. K.; Parsons, J.; Partridge, R.; Parua, N.; Patwa, A.; Pawloski, G.; Penning, B.; Perea, P. M.; Peters, K.; Peters, Y.; Pétroff, P.; Petteni, M.; Piegaia, R.; Piper, J.; Pleier, M.-A.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Podstavkov, V. M.; Pogorelov, Y.; Pol, M.-E.; Polozov, P.; Pompoš, A.; Pope, B. G.; Popov, A. V.; Potter, C.; Prado da Silva, W. L.; Prosper, H. B.; Protopopescu, S.; Qian, J.; Quadt, A.; Quinn, B.; Rakitine, A.; Rangel, M. S.; Rani, K. J.; Ranjan, K.; Ratoff, P. N.; Renkel, P.; Reucroft, S.; Rich, P.; Rijssenbeek, M.; Ripp-Baudot, I.; Rizatdinova, F.; Robinson, S.; Rodrigues, R. F.; Royon, C.; Rubinov, P.; Ruchti, R.; Safronov, G.; Sajot, G.; Sánchez-Hernández, A.; Sanders, M. P.; Santoro, A.; Savage, G.; Sawyer, L.; Scanlon, T.; Schaile, D.; Schamberger, R. D.; Scheglov, Y.; Schellman, H.; Schieferdecker, P.; Schliephake, T.; Schmitt, C.; Schwanenberger, C.; Schwartzman, A.; Schwienhorst, R.; Sekaric, J.; Sengupta, S.; Severini, H.; Shabalina, E.; Shamim, M.; Shary, V.; Shchukin, A. A.; Shivpuri, R. K.; Shpakov, D.; Siccardi, V.; Simak, V.; Sirotenko, V.; Skubic, P.; Slattery, P.; Smirnov, D.; Smith, R. P.; Snow, J.; Snow, G. R.; Snyder, S.; Söldner-Rembold, S.; Sonnenschein, L.; Sopczak, A.; Sosebee, M.; Soustruznik, K.; Souza, M.; Spurlock, B.; Stark, J.; Steele, J.; Stolin, V.; Stone, A.; Stoyanova, D. A.; Strandberg, J.; Strandberg, S.; Strang, M. A.; Strauss, M.; Strauss, E.; Ströhmer, R.; Strom, D.; Strovink, M.; Stutte, L.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Svoisky, P.; Sznajder, A.; Talby, M.; Tamburello, P.; Tanasijczuk, A.; Taylor, W.; Telford, P.; Temple, J.; Tiller, B.; Tissandier, F.; Titov, M.; Tokmenin, V. V.; Tomoto, M.; Toole, T.; Torchiani, I.; Trefzger, T.; Tsybychev, D.; Tuchming, B.; Tully, C.; Tuts, P. M.; Unalan, R.; Uvarov, S.; Uvarov, L.; Uzunyan, S.; Vachon, B.; van den Berg, P. J.; van Eijk, B.; van Kooten, R.; van Leeuwen, W. M.; Varelas, N.; Varnes, E. W.; Vartapetian, A.; Vasilyev, I. A.; Vaupel, M.; Verdier, P.; Vertogradov, L. S.; Verzocchi, M.; Villeneuve-Seguier, F.; Vint, P.; Vokac, P.; von Toerne, E.; Voutilainen, M.; Vreeswijk, M.; Wagner, R.; Wahl, H. D.; Wang, L.; Wang, M. H. L. S.; Warchol, J.; Watts, G.; Wayne, M.; Weber, M.; Weber, G.; Weerts, H.; Wenger, A.; Wermes, N.; Wetstein, M.; White, A.; Wicke, D.; Wilson, G. W.; Wimpenny, S. J.; Wobisch, M.; Wood, D. R.; Wyatt, T. R.; Xie, Y.; Yacoob, S.; Yamada, R.; Yan, M.; Yasuda, T.; Yatsunenko, Y. A.; Yip, K.; Yoo, H. D.; Youn, S. W.; Yu, J.; Yu, C.; Yurkewicz, A.; Zatserklyaniy, A.; Zeitnitz, C.; Zhang, D.; Zhao, T.; Zhou, B.; Zhu, J.; Zielinski, M.; Zieminska, D.; Zieminski, A.; Zivkovic, L.; Zutshi, V.; Zverev, E. G.

2007-11-01

We report a measurement of the Λb0 lifetime using a sample corresponding to 1.3fb-1 of data collected by the D0 experiment in 2002 2006 during run II of the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The Λb0 baryon is reconstructed via the decay Λb0→μν¯Λc+X. Using 4437±329 signal candidates, we measure the Λb0 lifetime to be τ(Λb0)=1.290-0.110+0.119(stat)-0.091+0.087(syst)ps, which is among the most precise measurements in semileptonic Λb0 decays. This result is in good agreement with the world average value.

A simple approach to lifetime learning in genetic programming-based symbolic regression.

PubMed

Azad, Raja Muhammad Atif; Ryan, Conor

2014-01-01

Genetic programming (GP) coarsely models natural evolution to evolve computer programs. Unlike in nature, where individuals can often improve their fitness through lifetime experience, the fitness of GP individuals generally does not change during their lifetime, and there is usually no opportunity to pass on acquired knowledge. This paper introduces the Chameleon system to address this discrepancy and augment GP with lifetime learning by adding a simple local search that operates by tuning the internal nodes of individuals. Although not the first attempt to combine local search with GP, its simplicity means that it is easy to understand and cheap to implement. A simple cache is added which leverages the local search to reduce the tuning cost to a small fraction of the expected cost, and we provide a theoretical upper limit on the maximum tuning expense given the average tree size of the population and show that this limit grows very conservatively as the average tree size of the population increases. We show that Chameleon uses available genetic material more efficiently by exploring more actively than with standard GP, and demonstrate that not only does Chameleon outperform standard GP (on both training and test data) over a number of symbolic regression type problems, it does so by producing smaller individuals and it works harmoniously with two other well-known extensions to GP, namely, linear scaling and a diversity-promoting tournament selection method.

The atmospheric lifetime of black carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cape, J. N.; Coyle, M.; Dumitrean, P.

2012-11-01

Black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere contributes to the human health effects of particulate matter and contributes to radiative forcing of climate. The lifetime of BC, particularly the smaller particle sizes (PM2.5) which can be transported over long distances, is therefore an important factor in determining the range of such effects, and the spatial footprint of emission controls. Theory and models suggest that the typical lifetime of BC is around one week. The frequency distributions of measurements of a range of hydrocarbons at a remote rural site in southern Scotland (Auchencorth Moss) between 2007 and 2010 have been used to quantify the relationship between atmospheric lifetime and the geometric standard deviation of observed concentration. The analysis relies on an assumed common major emission source for hydrocarbons and BC, namely diesel-engined vehicles. The logarithm of the standard deviation of the log-transformed concentration data is linearly related to hydrocarbon lifetime, and the same statistic for BC can be used to assess the lifetime of BC relative to the hydrocarbons. Annual average data show BC lifetimes in the range 4-12 days, for an assumed OH concentration of 7 × 105 cm-3. At this site there is little difference in BC lifetime between winter and summer, despite a 3-fold difference in relative hydrocarbon lifetimes. This observation confirms the role of wet deposition as an important removal process for BC, as there is no difference in precipitation between winter and summer at this site. BC lifetime was significantly greater in 2010, which had 23% less rainfall than the preceding 3 years.

Radiative lifetimes and cooling functions for astrophysically important molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tennyson, Jonathan; Hulme, Kelsey; Naim, Omree K.; Yurchenko, Sergei N.

2016-02-01

Extensive line lists generated as part of the ExoMol project are used to compute lifetimes for individual rotational, rovibrational and rovibronic excited states, and temperature-dependent cooling functions by summing over all dipole-allowed transitions for the states concerned. Results are presented for SiO, CaH, AlO, ScH, H2O and methane. The results for CH4 are particularly unusual with four excited states with no dipole-allowed decay route and several others, where these decays lead to exceptionally long lifetimes. These lifetime data should be useful in models of masers and estimates of critical densities, and can provide a link with laboratory measurements. Cooling functions are important in stellar and planet formation.

Quantification and Radiological Risk Estimation Due to the Presence of Natural Radionuclides in Maiganga Coal, Nigeria.

PubMed

Kolo, Matthew Tikpangi; Khandaker, Mayeen Uddin; Amin, Yusoff Mohd; Abdullah, Wan Hasiah Binti

2016-01-01

Following the increasing demand of coal for power generation, activity concentrations of primordial radionuclides were determined in Nigerian coal using the gamma spectrometric technique with the aim of evaluating the radiological implications of coal utilization and exploitation in the country. Mean activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K were 8.18±0.3, 6.97±0.3, and 27.38±0.8 Bq kg-1, respectively. These values were compared with those of similar studies reported in literature. The mean estimated radium equivalent activity was 20.26 Bq kg-1 with corresponding average external hazard index of 0.05. Internal hazard index and representative gamma index recorded mean values of 0.08 and 0.14, respectively. These values were lower than their respective precautionary limits set by UNSCEAR. Average excess lifetime cancer risk was calculated to be 0.04×10-3, which was insignificant compared with 0.05 prescribed by ICRP for low level radiation. Pearson correlation matrix showed significant positive relationship between 226Ra and 232Th, and with other estimated hazard parameters. Cumulative mean occupational dose received by coal workers via the three exposure routes was 7.69 ×10-3 mSv y-1, with inhalation pathway accounting for about 98%. All radiological hazard indices evaluated showed values within limits of safety. There is, therefore, no likelihood of any immediate radiological health hazards to coal workers, final users, and the environment from the exploitation and utilization of Maiganga coal.

Quantification and Radiological Risk Estimation Due to the Presence of Natural Radionuclides in Maiganga Coal, Nigeria

PubMed Central

Kolo, Matthew Tikpangi; Khandaker, Mayeen Uddin; Amin, Yusoff Mohd; Abdullah, Wan Hasiah Binti

2016-01-01

Following the increasing demand of coal for power generation, activity concentrations of primordial radionuclides were determined in Nigerian coal using the gamma spectrometric technique with the aim of evaluating the radiological implications of coal utilization and exploitation in the country. Mean activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K were 8.18±0.3, 6.97±0.3, and 27.38±0.8 Bq kg-1, respectively. These values were compared with those of similar studies reported in literature. The mean estimated radium equivalent activity was 20.26 Bq kg-1 with corresponding average external hazard index of 0.05. Internal hazard index and representative gamma index recorded mean values of 0.08 and 0.14, respectively. These values were lower than their respective precautionary limits set by UNSCEAR. Average excess lifetime cancer risk was calculated to be 0.04×10−3, which was insignificant compared with 0.05 prescribed by ICRP for low level radiation. Pearson correlation matrix showed significant positive relationship between 226Ra and 232Th, and with other estimated hazard parameters. Cumulative mean occupational dose received by coal workers via the three exposure routes was 7.69 ×10−3 mSv y-1, with inhalation pathway accounting for about 98%. All radiological hazard indices evaluated showed values within limits of safety. There is, therefore, no likelihood of any immediate radiological health hazards to coal workers, final users, and the environment from the exploitation and utilization of Maiganga coal. PMID:27348624

The Lifetimes of Phases in High-mass Star-forming Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battersby, Cara; Bally, John; Svoboda, Brian

2017-02-01

High-mass stars form within star clusters from dense, molecular regions (DMRs), but is the process of cluster formation slow and hydrostatic or quick and dynamic? We link the physical properties of high-mass star-forming regions with their evolutionary stage in a systematic way, using Herschel and Spitzer data. In order to produce a robust estimate of the relative lifetimes of these regions, we compare the fraction of DMRs above a column density associated with high-mass star formation, N(H2) > 0.4-2.5 × 1022 cm-2, in the “starless” (no signature of stars ≳10 {M}⊙ forming) and star-forming phases in a 2° × 2° region of the Galactic Plane centered at ℓ = 30°. Of regions capable of forming high-mass stars on ˜1 pc scales, the starless (or embedded beyond detection) phase occupies about 60%-70% of the DMR lifetime, and the star-forming phase occupies about 30%-40%. These relative lifetimes are robust over a wide range of thresholds. We outline a method by which relative lifetimes can be anchored to absolute lifetimes from large-scale surveys of methanol masers and UCHII regions. A simplistic application of this method estimates the absolute lifetime of the starless phase to be 0.2-1.7 Myr (about 0.6-4.1 fiducial cloud free-fall times) and the star-forming phase to be 0.1-0.7 Myr (about 0.4-2.4 free-fall times), but these are highly uncertain. This work uniquely investigates the star-forming nature of high column density gas pixel by pixel, and our results demonstrate that the majority of high column density gas is in a starless or embedded phase.

A Modelling Approach to Estimate the Impact of Sodium Reduction in Soups on Cardiovascular Health in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Bruins, Maaike J.; Dötsch-Klerk, Mariska; Matthee, Joep; Kearney, Mary; van Elk, Kathelijn; Weber, Peter; Eggersdorfer, Manfred

2015-01-01

Hypertension is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality, which could be lowered by reducing dietary sodium. The potential health impact of a product reformulation in the Netherlands was modelled, selecting packaged soups containing on average 25% less sodium as an example of an achievable product reformulation when implemented gradually. First, the blood pressure lowering resulting from sodium intake reduction was modelled. Second, the predicted blood pressure lowering was translated into potentially preventable incidence and mortality cases from stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), angina pectoris, and heart failure (HF) implementing one year salt reduction. Finally, the potentially preventable subsequent lifetime Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were calculated. The sodium reduction in soups might potentially reduce the incidence and mortality of stroke by approximately 0.5%, AMI and angina by 0.3%, and HF by 0.2%. The related burden of disease could be reduced by approximately 800 lifetime DALYs. This modelling approach can be used to provide insight into the potential public health impact of sodium reduction in specific food products. The data demonstrate that an achievable food product reformulation to reduce sodium can potentially benefit public health, albeit modest. When implemented across multiple product categories and countries, a significant health impact could be achieved. PMID:26393647

A model for estimation of potential generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment in Brazil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Araujo, Marcelo Guimaraes, E-mail: marcel_g@uol.com.br; Magrini, Alessandra; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

2012-02-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Literature of WEEE generation in developing countries is reviewed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We analyse existing estimates of WEEE generation for Brazil. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a model for WEEE generation estimate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer WEEE generation of 3.77 kg/capita year for 2008 is estimated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Use of constant lifetime should be avoided for non-mature market products. - Abstract: Sales of electrical and electronic equipment are increasing dramatically in developing countries. Usually, there are no reliable data about quantities of the waste generated. A new law for solid waste management was enacted in Brazil in 2010, and the infrastructure to treat this waste mustmore » be planned, considering the volumes of the different types of electrical and electronic equipment generated. This paper reviews the literature regarding estimation of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), focusing on developing countries, particularly in Latin America. It briefly describes the current WEEE system in Brazil and presents an updated estimate of generation of WEEE. Considering the limited available data in Brazil, a model for WEEE generation estimation is proposed in which different methods are used for mature and non-mature market products. The results showed that the most important variable is the equipment lifetime, which requires a thorough understanding of consumer behavior to estimate. Since Brazil is a rapidly expanding market, the 'boom' in waste generation is still to come. In the near future, better data will provide more reliable estimation of waste generation and a clearer interpretation of the lifetime variable throughout the years.« less

A Topology Control Strategy with Reliability Assurance for Satellite Cluster Networks in Earth Observation

PubMed Central

Chen, Qing; Zhang, Jinxiu; Hu, Ze

2017-01-01

This article investigates the dynamic topology control problem of satellite cluster networks (SCNs) in Earth observation (EO) missions by applying a novel metric of stability for inter-satellite links (ISLs). The properties of the periodicity and predictability of satellites’ relative position are involved in the link cost metric which is to give a selection criterion for choosing the most reliable data routing paths. Also, a cooperative work model with reliability is proposed for the situation of emergency EO missions. Based on the link cost metric and the proposed reliability model, a reliability assurance topology control algorithm and its corresponding dynamic topology control (RAT) strategy are established to maximize the stability of data transmission in the SCNs. The SCNs scenario is tested through some numeric simulations of the topology stability of average topology lifetime and average packet loss rate. Simulation results show that the proposed reliable strategy applied in SCNs significantly improves the data transmission performance and prolongs the average topology lifetime. PMID:28241474

A Topology Control Strategy with Reliability Assurance for Satellite Cluster Networks in Earth Observation.

PubMed

Chen, Qing; Zhang, Jinxiu; Hu, Ze

2017-02-23

This article investigates the dynamic topology control problemof satellite cluster networks (SCNs) in Earth observation (EO) missions by applying a novel metric of stability for inter-satellite links (ISLs). The properties of the periodicity and predictability of satellites' relative position are involved in the link cost metric which is to give a selection criterion for choosing the most reliable data routing paths. Also, a cooperative work model with reliability is proposed for the situation of emergency EO missions. Based on the link cost metric and the proposed reliability model, a reliability assurance topology control algorithm and its corresponding dynamic topology control (RAT) strategy are established to maximize the stability of data transmission in the SCNs. The SCNs scenario is tested through some numeric simulations of the topology stability of average topology lifetime and average packet loss rate. Simulation results show that the proposed reliable strategy applied in SCNs significantly improves the data transmission performance and prolongs the average topology lifetime.

Conformer lifetimes of ethyl cyanoformate from exchange-averaged rotational spectra.

PubMed

True, Nancy S

2009-06-25

Ethyl cyanoformate exists as a mixture of two conformers but displays three R-branch a-type band series in its rotational spectrum. Simulations with population fractions 0.37 at 210 K and 0.70 at 297 K undergoing conformer exchange with average conformer lifetimes, , shorter than approximately 40 ps at approximately 210 K and shorter than approximately 37 ps at 297 K reproduce the experimental spectra between 26.5 and 38 GHz, the exchanging species accounting for the third set of bands. The upper-limit 's are 1 order of magnitude longer than RRKM theory predictions and the population fractions are consistent with the total population with energy above 700 cm(-1), approximately twice the conformer interconversion barrier height. Model calculations indicate that extensive K-sublevel mixing in individual molecular eigenstates can produce the large population and the narrow distribution of the rotational-constant sum, B + C, consistent with the observed exchange-averaged band series.

Fast lifetime measurements of stored e/sup +//e/sup -/ single bunches in PETRA and DORIS II utilizing the ac-signals of simple beam current transformers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Radloff, W.; Kriens, W.

1983-08-01

A monitor for fast lifetime measurements has been developed and successfully tested. The monitor pick-up consists of a standard broadband transformer device in a ring position with equidistant bunch spacing. It has an upper cut-off frequency of about 4 MHz which allows to measure simultaneously the lifetimes of up to 8 individual bunches in PETRA (2 in DORIS II). In the electronic section the ac-signals are separated, baseline-restored, stretched and finally digitized in a highly stable 16 bit ad-converter. The output data are fed then into a microprocessor that computes the average currents and their time derivatives. As a resultmore » lifetimes of up to 5X10/sup 4/ s can be measured in less than 2 seconds. Some measurements are reported.« less

Investigation on the porosity of zeolite NU-88 by means of positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Consolati, G.; Mariani, M.; Millini, R.; Quasso, F.

2009-08-01

Seven well characterized zeolites were investigated by positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy. The lifetime spectra were analysed in four discrete components. The third one was associated with ortho-positronium annihilation in the channels, framed in terms of infinite cylinders. Differences between the radii determined from the positron annihilation technique and X-ray diffraction data were found and explained in terms of the physical structure of the channel. An analogous study on a high-silica NU-88 zeolite gave a value of 0.33 nm for the corresponding radius, in agreement with Ar and N 2 adsorption data as well as with the catalytic behaviour of this zeolite in several acid catalyzed reactions. The longest lifetime component in NU-88 reveals the existence of mesopores, with average radius of about 1.8 nm, which could explain the importance of hydrogen transfer reactions in this zeolite.

Using a cost-benefit analysis to estimate outcomes of a clinical treatment guideline: testing theBrain Trauma Foundation guidelines for the treatment of severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Faul, Mark; Wald, Marlena M; Rutland-Brown, Wesley; Sullivent, Ernest E; Sattin, Richard W

2007-12-01

A decade after promulgation of treatment guidelines by the Brain Trauma Foundation (BTF), few studies exist that examine the application of these guidelines for severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. These studies have reported both cost savings and reduced mortality. We projected the results of previous studies of BTF guideline adoption to estimate the impact of widespread adoption across the United States. We used surveillance systems and national surveys to estimate the number of severely injured TBI patients and compared the lifetime costs of BTF adoption to the current state of treatment. After examining the health outcomes and costs, we estimated that a substantial savings in annual medical costs ($262 million), annual rehabilitation costs ($43 million) and lifetime societal costs ($3.84 billion) would be achieved if treatment guidelines were used more routinely. Implementation costs were estimated to be $61 million. The net savings were primarily because of better health outcomes and a decreased burden on lifetime social support systems. We also estimate that mortality would be reduced by 3,607 lives if the guidelines were followed. Widespread adoption of the BTF guidelines for the treatment of severe TBI would result in substantial savings in costs and lives. The majority of cost savings are societal costs. Further validation work to identify the most effective aspects of the BTF guidelines is warranted.

Lifetime evaluation of large format CMOS mixed signal infrared devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linder, A.; Glines, Eddie

2015-09-01

New large scale foundry processes continue to produce reliable products. These new large scale devices continue to use industry best practice to screen for failure mechanisms and validate their long lifetime. The Failure-in-Time analysis in conjunction with foundry qualification information can be used to evaluate large format device lifetimes. This analysis is a helpful tool when zero failure life tests are typical. The reliability of the device is estimated by applying the failure rate to the use conditions. JEDEC publications continue to be the industry accepted methods.

Improved lifetime of chitosan film in converting water vapor to electrical power by adding carboxymethyl cellulose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasution, T. I.; Balyan, M.; Nainggolan, I.

2018-02-01

A Water vapor cell based on chitosan film has been successfully fabricated in film form to convert water vapor to electrical power. In order to improve the lifetime of water vapor cell, Carboxymethyl Cellulose (CMC) was added into 1% chitosan solution within concentration variations of 0.01, 0.05, 0.1 and 0.5%. The result showed that the lifetime of water vapor cell increased higher by adding the higher concentration of Carboxymethyl cellulose. The highest lifetime was evidenced by adding 0.5%CMC which maintained for 48 weeks. However, the average electrical power became lower to 4.621 µW. This electrical power lower than the addition of 0.1%CMC which maintained for 5.167 µW. While, the lifetime of chitosan-0.1%CMC film of 44 weeks is shorter compared to chitosan-0.5%CMC film. Based on FTIR characterization, it was founded that the chitosan structure did not change until the addition of 0.1%CMC. This caused the electrical power of water vapor cell degenerated. Therefore, chitosan-0.5%CMC film has excellent lifetime in converting water vapor to electrical power.

Prevalence and Trends in Lifetime Obesity in the U.S., 1988-2014.

PubMed

Stokes, Andrew; Ni, Yu; Preston, Samuel H

2017-11-01

Estimates of obesity prevalence based on current BMI are an important but incomplete indicator of the total effects of obesity on a population. In this study, data on current BMI and maximum BMI were used to estimate prevalence and trends in lifetime obesity status, defined using the categories never (maximum BMI ≤30 kg/m 2 ), former (maximum BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 and current BMI ≤30 kg/m 2 ), and current obesity (current BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 ). Prevalence was estimated for the period 2013-2014 and trends for the period 1988-2014 using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Predictors of lifetime weight status and the association between lifetime weight categories and prevalent disease status were also investigated using multivariable regression. A total of 50.8% of American males and 51.6% of American females were ever obese in 2013-2014. The prevalence of lifetime obesity exceeded the prevalence of current obesity by amounts that were greater for males and for older persons. The gap between the two prevalence values has risen over time. By 2013-2014, a total of 22.0% of individuals who were not currently obese had formerly been obese. For each of eight diseases considered, prevalence was higher among the formerly obese than among the never obese. A larger fraction of the population is affected by obesity and its health consequences than is suggested in prior studies based on current BMI alone. Weight history should be incorporated into routine health surveillance of the obesity epidemic for a full accounting of the effects of obesity on the U.S. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupational Exposure of Diesel Station Workers to BTEX Compounds at a Bus Depot

PubMed Central

Moolla, Raeesa; Curtis, Christopher J.; Knight, Jasper

2015-01-01

Diesel fuel is known to emit pollutants that have a negative impact on environmental and human health. In developing countries like South Africa, attendants are employed to pump fuel for customers at service stations. Attendants refuel vehicles with various octane unleaded fuel, lead-replacement petrol and diesel fuel, on a daily basis. Attendants are at risk to adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of volatile organic compounds released from these fuels. The pollutants released include benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX), which are significant due to their high level of toxicity. In this study, a risk assessment of BTEX was conducted at a diesel service station for public buses. Using Radiello passive samplers, it was found that benzene concentrations were above recommended international standards. Due to poor ventilation and high exposure duration, the average benzene concentration over the sampling campaign exceeded the US Environmental Protection Agency’s chronic inhalation exposure reference concentration. Lifetime cancer risk estimation showed that on average there is a 3.78 × 10−4 cancer risk, corresponding to an average chronic daily intake of 1.38 × 10−3 mg/kg/day of benzene exposure. Additionally, there were incidences where individuals were at potential hazard risk of benzene and toluene that may pose non-carcinogenic effects to employees. PMID:25872020

Occupational exposure of diesel station workers to BTEX compounds at a bus depot.

PubMed

Moolla, Raeesa; Curtis, Christopher J; Knight, Jasper

2015-04-13

Diesel fuel is known to emit pollutants that have a negative impact on environmental and human health. In developing countries like South Africa, attendants are employed to pump fuel for customers at service stations. Attendants refuel vehicles with various octane unleaded fuel, lead-replacement petrol and diesel fuel, on a daily basis. Attendants are at risk to adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of volatile organic compounds released from these fuels. The pollutants released include benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX), which are significant due to their high level of toxicity. In this study, a risk assessment of BTEX was conducted at a diesel service station for public buses. Using Radiello passive samplers, it was found that benzene concentrations were above recommended international standards. Due to poor ventilation and high exposure duration, the average benzene concentration over the sampling campaign exceeded the US Environmental Protection Agency's chronic inhalation exposure reference concentration. Lifetime cancer risk estimation showed that on average there is a 3.78 × 10-4 cancer risk, corresponding to an average chronic daily intake of 1.38 × 10-3 mg/kg/day of benzene exposure. Additionally, there were incidences where individuals were at potential hazard risk of benzene and toluene that may pose non-carcinogenic effects to employees.

NREL: News - New Design Tool Analyzes Cost of Operating a Building Over its

Science.gov Websites

Lifetime Analyzes Cost of Operating a Building Over its Lifetime Golden, Colo., August 2, 2002 taking into consideration such factors as the initial cost of construction, mortgage payments, annual supply their own cost estimates. "Energy-10 allows the user to play 'what if' games while designing

Lifetime Prevalence of Mental Disorders in U.S. Adolescents: Results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication-Adolescent Supplement (NCS-A)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merikangas, Kathleen Ries; He, Jian-ping; Burstein, Marcy; Swanson, Sonja A.; Avenevoli, Shelli; Cui, Lihong; Benjet, Corina; Georgiades, Katholiki; Swendsen, Joel

2010-01-01

Objective: To present estimates of the lifetime prevalence of "DSM-IV" mental disorders with and without severe impairment, their comorbidity across broad classes of disorder, and their sociodemographic correlates. Method: The National Comorbidity Survey-Adolescent Supplement NCS-A is a nationally representative face-to-face survey of…

U.S. dietary exposures to heterocyclic amines.

PubMed

Bogen, K T; Keating, G A

2001-01-01

Heterocyclic amines (HAs) formed in fried, broiled or grilled meats are potent mutagens that increase rates of colon, mammary, prostate and other cancers in bioassay rodents. Studies of how human dietary HA exposures may affect cancer risks have so far relied on fairly crudely defined HA-exposure categories. Recently, an integrated, quantitative approach to HA-exposure assessment (HAEA) was developed to estimate compound-specific intakes for particular individuals based on corresponding HA-concentration estimates that reflect their meat-type, intake-rate, cooking-method and meat-doneness preferences. This method was applied in the present study to U.S. national Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) data on meats consumed and cooking methods used by >25,000 people, after adjusting for underreported energy intake and conditional on meat-doneness preferences estimated from additional survey data. The U.S. population average lifetime time-weighted average of total HAs consumed was estimated to be approximately 9 ng/kg/day, with 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP) estimated to comprise about two thirds of this intake. Pan-fried meats were the largest source of HA in the diet and chicken the largest source of HAs among different meat types. Estimated total HA intakes by male vs. female children were generally similar, with those by (0- to 15-year-old) children approximately 25% greater than those by (16+-year-old) adults. Race-, age- and sex-specific mean HA intakes were estimated to be greatest for African American males, who were estimated to consume approximately 2- and approximately 3-fold more PhIP than white males at ages <16 and 30+ years, respectively, after considering a relatively greater preference for more well-done items among African Americans based on national survey data. This difference in PhIP intakes may at least partly explain why prostate cancer (PC) kills approximately 2-fold more African American than white men, in view of experimental data indicating that PhIP mutates prostate DNA and causes prostate tumors in rats.

Atmospheric lifetime of SF5CF3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, K.; Nakayama, T.; Matsumi, Y.; Solomon, S.; Gejo, T.; Shigemasa, E.; Wallington, T. J.

2002-08-01

The vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) absorption spectrum of SF5CF3 was measured over the range 106-200 nm. At 121.6 nm, σ(base e) = (7.8 +/- 0.6) × 10-18 cm2 molecule-1, in which quoted uncertainty includes two standard deviation from the least-square fit in the Beer-Lambert plot and our estimate of potential systematic errors associated with measurements of the reactant concentrations. The VUV spectrum and literature data for electron attachment and ion-molecule reactions were incorporated into a model of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. This information provides better constraints on the atmospheric lifetime and hence on the potential of this highly radiatively-active trace gas to influence the climate system. The atmospheric lifetime of SF5CF3 is dominated by dissociative electron attachment and is estimated to be approximately 950 years. Solar proton events could reduce this to a lower limit of 650 years.

Macroeconomic costs of the unmet burden of surgical disease in Sierra Leone: a retrospective economic analysis

PubMed Central

Kamara, Thaim B; Lavy, Christopher B D; Leather, Andy J M; Bolkan, Håkon A

2018-01-01

Objectives The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery estimated that low/middle-income countries will lose an estimated cumulative loss of US$12.3 trillion from gross domestic product (GDP) due to the unmet burden of surgical disease. However, no country-specific data currently exist. We aimed to estimate the costs to the Sierra Leone economy from death and disability which may have been averted by surgical care. Design We used estimates of total, met and unmet need from two main sources—a cluster randomised, cross-sectional, countrywide survey and a retrospective, nationwide study on surgery in Sierra Leone. We calculated estimated disability-adjusted life years from morbidity and mortality for the estimated unmet burden and modelled the likely economic impact using three different methods—gross national income per capita, lifetime earnings foregone and value of a statistical life. Results In 2012, estimated, discounted lifetime losses to the Sierra Leone economy from the unmet burden of surgical disease was between US$1.1 and US$3.8 billion, depending on the economic method used. These lifetime losses equate to between 23% and 100% of the annual GDP for Sierra Leone. 80% of economic losses were due to mortality. The incremental losses averted by scale up of surgical provision to the Lancet Commission target of 80% were calculated to be between US$360 million and US$2.9 billion. Conclusion There is a large economic loss from the unmet need for surgical care in Sierra Leone. There is an immediate need for massive investment to counteract ongoing economic losses. PMID:29540407

Fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy using near-infrared contrast agents.

PubMed

Nothdurft, R; Sarder, P; Bloch, S; Culver, J; Achilefu, S

2012-08-01

Although single-photon fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) is widely used to image molecular processes using a wide range of excitation wavelengths, the captured emission of this technique is confined to the visible spectrum. Here, we explore the feasibility of utilizing near-infrared (NIR) fluorescent molecular probes with emission >700 nm for FLIM of live cells. The confocal microscope is equipped with a 785 nm laser diode, a red-enhanced photomultiplier tube, and a time-correlated single photon counting card. We demonstrate that our system reports the lifetime distributions of NIR fluorescent dyes, cypate and DTTCI, in cells. In cells labelled separately or jointly with these dyes, NIR FLIM successfully distinguishes their lifetimes, providing a method to sort different cell populations. In addition, lifetime distributions of cells co-incubated with these dyes allow estimate of the dyes' relative concentrations in complex cellular microenvironments. With the heightened interest in fluorescence lifetime-based small animal imaging using NIR fluorophores, this technique further serves as a bridge between in vitro spectroscopic characterization of new fluorophore lifetimes and in vivo tissue imaging. © 2012 The Author Journal of Microscopy © 2012 Royal Microscopical Society.

Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging Microscopy Using Near-Infrared Contrast Agents

PubMed Central

Nothdurft, Ralph; Sarder, Pinaki; Bloch, Sharon; Culver, Joseph; Achilefu, Samuel

2013-01-01

Although single-photon fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) is widely used to image molecular processes using a wide range of excitation wavelengths, the captured emission of this technique is confined to the visible spectrum. Here, we explore the feasibility of utilizing near-infrared (NIR) fluorescent molecular probes with emission >700 nm for FLIM of live cells. The confocal microscope is equipped with a 785 nm laser diode, a red-enhanced photomultiplier tube, and a time-correlated single photon counting card. We demonstrate that our system reports the lifetime distributions of NIR fluorescent dyes, cypate and DTTCI, in cells. In cells labeled separately or jointly with these dyes, NIR FLIM successfully distinguishes their lifetimes, providing a method to sort different cell populations. In addition, lifetime distributions of cells co-incubated with these dyes allow estimate of the dyes’ relative concentrations in complex cellular microenvironments. With the heightened interest in fluorescence lifetime-based small animal imaging using NIR fluorophores, this technique further serves as a bridge between in vitro spectroscopic characterization of new fluorophore lifetimes and in vivo tissue imaging. PMID:22788550

Kinetic approach to degradation mechanisms in polymer solar cells and their accurate lifetime predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arshad, Muhammad Azeem; Maaroufi, AbdelKrim

2018-07-01

A beginning has been made in the present study regarding the accurate lifetime predictions of polymer solar cells. Certain reservations about the conventionally employed temperature accelerated lifetime measurements test for its unworthiness of predicting reliable lifetimes of polymer solar cells are brought into light. Critical issues concerning the accelerated lifetime testing include, assuming reaction mechanism instead of determining it, and relying solely on the temperature acceleration of a single property of material. An advanced approach comprising a set of theoretical models to estimate the accurate lifetimes of polymer solar cells is therefore suggested in order to suitably alternate the accelerated lifetime testing. This approach takes into account systematic kinetic modeling of various possible polymer degradation mechanisms under natural weathering conditions. The proposed kinetic approach is substantiated by its applications on experimental aging data-sets of polymer solar materials/solar cells including, P3HT polymer film, bulk heterojunction (MDMO-PPV:PCBM) and dye-sensitized solar cells. Based on the suggested approach, an efficacious lifetime determination formula for polymer solar cells is derived and tested on dye-sensitized solar cells. Some important merits of the proposed method are also pointed out and its prospective applications are discussed.

Life years lost and lifetime health care expenditures associated with diabetes in the U.S., National Health Interview Survey, 1997-2000.

PubMed

Leung, Man-Yee Mallory; Pollack, Lisa M; Colditz, Graham A; Chang, Su-Hsin

2015-03-01

This study analyzed the lifetime health care expenditures and life years lost associated with diabetes in the U.S. Data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1997 to 2000, and the NHIS Linked Mortality Public-use Files with a mortality follow-up to 2006 were used to estimate age-, race-, sex-, and BMI-specific risk of diabetes, mortality, and annual health care expenditures for both patients with diabetes and those without diabetes. A Markov model populated by the risk and cost estimates was used to compute life years and total lifetime health care expenditures by age, race, sex, and BMI classifications for patients with diabetes and without diabetes. Predicted life expectancy for patients with diabetes and without diabetes demonstrated an inverted U shape across most BMI classifications, with highest life expectancy being for the overweight. Lifetime health care expenditures were higher for whites than blacks and for females than males. Using U.S. adults aged 50 years as an example, we found that diabetic white females with a BMI >40 kg/m(2) had 17.9 remaining life years and lifetime health expenditures of $185,609, whereas diabetic white females with normal weight had 22.2 remaining life years and lifetime health expenditures of $183,704. Our results show that diabetes is associated with large decreases in life expectancy and large increases in lifetime health care expenditures. In addition to decreasing life expectancy by 3.3 to 18.7 years, diabetes increased lifetime health care expenditures by $8,946 to $159,380 depending on age-race-sex-BMI classification groups. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Autofluorescence Lifetimes in Geographic Atrophy in Patients With Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Dysli, Chantal; Wolf, Sebastian; Zinkernagel, Martin S

2016-05-01

To investigate fluorescence lifetime characteristics in patients with geographic atrophy (GA) in eyes with age-related macular degeneration and to correlate the measurements with clinical data and optical coherence tomography (OCT) findings. Patients with GA were imaged with a fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscope. Retinal autofluorescence lifetimes were measured in a short and a long spectral channel (498-560 nm and 560-720 nm). Mean retinal fluorescence lifetimes were analyzed within GA and the surrounding retina, and data were correlated with best corrected visual acuity and OCT measurements. Fluorescence lifetime maps of 41 eyes of 41 patients (80 ± 7 years) with GA were analyzed. Mean lifetimes within areas of atrophy were prolonged by 624 ± 276 ps (+152%) in the short spectral channel and 418 ± 186 ps (+83%) in the long spectral channel compared to the surrounding tissue. Autofluorescence lifetime abnormalities in GA occurred with particular patterns, similar to those seen in fundus autofluorescence intensity images. Within the fovea short mean autofluorescence lifetimes were observed, presumably representing macular pigment. Short lifetimes were preserved even in the absence of foveal sparing but were decreased in patients with advanced retinal atrophy in OCT. Short lifetimes in the fovea correlated with better best corrected visual acuity in both spectral channels. This study established that autofluorescence lifetime changes in GA present with explicit patterns. We hypothesize that the short lifetimes seen within the atrophy may be used to estimate damage induced by atrophy and to monitor disease progression in the context of natural history or interventional therapeutic studies.

Averages of B-Hadron, C-Hadron, and tau-lepton properties as of early 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amhis, Y.; et al.

2012-07-01

This article reports world averages of measurements of b-hadron, c-hadron, and tau-lepton properties obtained by the Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG) using results available through the end of 2011. In some cases results available in the early part of 2012 are included. For the averaging, common input parameters used in the various analyses are adjusted (rescaled) to common values, and known correlations are taken into account. The averages include branching fractions, lifetimes, neutral meson mixing parameters, CP violation parameters, parameters of semileptonic decays and CKM matrix elements.

A model-based economic evaluation of improved primary care management of patients with type 2 diabetes in Australia.

PubMed

Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Gray, Jodi; Beilby, Justin; Holton, Christine; Karnon, Jonathan

2013-12-01

There are few studies investigating the economic value of the Australian practice nurse workforce on the management of chronic conditions. This is particularly important in Australia, where the government needs evidence to inform decisions on whether to maintain or redirect current financial incentives that encourage practices to recruit practice nurses. The objective of this study was to estimate the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with two models of practice nurse involvement in clinical-based activities (high and low level) in the management of type 2 diabetes within the primary care setting. A previously validated state transition model (the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model) was adapted, which uses baseline prognostic factors (e.g. gender, haemoglobin A1c [HbA1c]) to predict the risk of occurrence of diabetes-related complications (e.g. stroke). The model was populated by data from Australian and UK observational studies. Costs and utility values associated with complications were summed over patients' lifetimes to estimate costs and QALY gains from the perspective of the health care system. All costs were expressed in 2011 Australian dollars (AU$). The base-case analysis assumed a 40-year time horizon with an annual discount rate of 5 %. Relative to low-level involvement of practice nurses in the provision of clinical-based activities, the high-level model was associated with lower mean lifetime costs of management of complications (-AU$8,738; 95 % confidence interval [CI] -AU$12,522 to -AU$4,954), and a greater average gain in QALYs (0.3; 95 % CI 0.2-0.4). A range of sensitivity analyses were performed, in which the high-level model was dominant in all cases. Our results suggest that the high-level model is a dominant management strategy over the low-level model in all modelled scenarios. These findings indicate the need for effective primary care-based incentives to encourage general practices not only to employ practice nurses, but to better integrate them into the provision of clinical services.

Modeling the Costs of Postpartum Dysgalactia Syndrome and Locomotory Disorders on Sow Productivity and Replacement

PubMed Central

Niemi, Jarkko K.; Bergman, Paula; Ovaska, Sami; Sevón-Aimonen, Marja-Liisa; Heinonen, Mari

2017-01-01

Postpartum dysgalactia syndrome (PPDS) and locomotory disorders are common health problems in sows. Previous research suggests that they can cause substantial losses, reduce sow welfare, and result in premature removal of the sow from the herd. However, economic consequences of PPDS and locomotory disorders have not been investigated thoroughly. The goal of this study was to examine economic losses caused by PPDS and locomotory disorders and their impacts on sow longevity. A stochastic dynamic programming model, which maximizes return on sow space unit and assesses sow replacement under several scenarios, was developed. The state variables were litter size, parity number, and sow’s health status. The model describes changes in the production parameters such as the number of piglets born and piglet mortality. Herd data originating from commercial sow herds and from a research farm were used to parameterize the model. Sow longevity, health, and economic results are related to each other. Eliminating the risk of PPDS from the model increased the value of sow space unit by €279 when compared to the baseline scenario. Eliminating the risk of locomotory disorders increased value by €110. Results suggest that these estimates correspond to about €29.1 and €11.5 in economic costs per housed sow during her lifetime. The estimated magnitude of losses was €300–€470 per affected sow for PPDS and €290–€330 per affected sow for locomotory disorders. However, realistically speaking, not all of these costs are avoidable. Due to premature replacement associated with these two disorders, the average number of litters that the sow would deliver during her lifetime is decreased by about 0.1–0.4 litters depending on the scenario. We also observed that the optimal lifetime of a sow is not a fixed number, but it depends on her productivity level as well as health status. In general, a healthy sow could stay in the herd until she has produced 6–10 litters. Research is needed to understand the structures and interactions underlying health impairments, performance, replacement policies, and farm economics, and to provide pork producers with management recommendations. PMID:29164138

Two-component density functional theory calculations of positron lifetimes for small vacancy clusters in silicon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makhov, D. V.; Lewis, Laurent J.

2005-05-01

The positron lifetimes for various vacancy clusters in silicon are calculated within the framework of the two-component electron-positron density functional theory. The effect of the trapped positron on the electron density and on the relaxation of the structure is investigated. Our calculations show that, contrary to the usual assumption, the positron-induced forces do not compensate in general for electronic inward forces. Thus, geometry optimization is required in order to determine positron lifetime accurately. For the monovacancy and the divacancy, the results of our calculations are in good agreement with the experimental positron lifetimes, suggesting that this approach gives good estimates of positron lifetimes for larger vacancy clusters, required for their correct identification with positron annihilation spectroscopy. As an application, our calculations show that fourfold trivacancies and symmetric fourfold tetravacancies have positron lifetimes similar to monovacancies and divacancies, respectively, and can thus be confused in the interpretation of positron annihilation experiments.

The Hygiene Hypothesis and Breast Cancer: A Novel Application of an Etiologic Theory for Allergies, Asthma, and Other Immune Disorders

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

splenectomy • Current consumption of fermented or probiotic foods (e.g., yogurt , kim chee) • Lifetime number of insect stings b. Translate...tonsillectomy, appendectomy, or splenectomy; current consumption of yogurt or kimchee; or number of lifetime insect stings. However, suggestively...21 5.56 27 7.14 p value 0.3708 Average number of days/month in last year reported eating yogurt None 108 28.57 109 28.76 1-5

Cost-effectiveness of enzyme replacement therapy with alglucosidase alfa in classic-infantile patients with Pompe disease

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Infantile Pompe disease is a rare metabolic disease. Patients generally do not survive the first year of life. Enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) has proven to have substantial effects on survival in infantile Pompe disease. However, the costs of therapy are very high. In this paper, we assess the cost-effectiveness of enzyme replacement therapy in infantile Pompe disease. Methods A patient simulation model was used to compare costs and effects of ERT with costs of effects of supportive therapy (ST). The model was filled with data on survival, quality of life and costs. For both arms of the model, data on survival were obtained from international literature. In addition, survival as observed among 20 classic-infantile Dutch patients, who all received ERT, was used. Quality of life was measured using the EQ-5D and assumed to be the same in both treatment groups. Costs included the costs of ERT (which depend on a child’s weight), infusions, costs of other health care utilization, and informal care. A lifetime time horizon was used, with 6-month time cycles. Results Life expectancy was significantly longer in the ERT group than in the ST group. On average, ST receiving patients were modelled not to survive the first half year of life; whereas the life expectancy in the ERT patients was modelled to be almost 14 years. Lifetime incremental QALYs were 6.8. Incremental costs were estimated to be € 7.0 million, which primarily consisted of treatment costs (95%). The incremental costs per QALY were estimated to be € 1.0 million (range sensitivity analyses: € 0.3 million - € 1.3 million). The incremental cost per life year gained was estimated to be € 0.5 million. Conclusions The incremental costs per QALY ratio is far above the conventional threshold values. Results from univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results. PMID:24884717

DC-Obesity: A New Model for Estimating Differential Lifetime Costs of Overweight and Obesity by Socioeconomic Status.

PubMed

Sonntag, Diana; Jarczok, Marc N; Ali, Shehzad

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to quantify the magnitude of lifetime costs of overweight and obesity by socioeconomic status (SES). Differential Costs (DC)-Obesity is a new model that uses time-to-event simulation and the Markov modeling approach to compare lifetime excess costs of overweight and obesity among individuals with low, middle, and high SES. SES was measured by a multidimensional aggregated index based on level of education, occupational class, and income by using longitudinal data of the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP). Random-effects meta-analysis was applied to combine estimates of (in)direct costs of overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity brings attention to opposite socioeconomic gradients in lifetime costs due to obesity compared to overweight. Compared to individuals with obesity and high SES, individuals with obesity and low SES had lifetime excess costs that were two times higher (€8,526). In contrast, these costs were 20% higher in groups with overweight and high SES than in groups with overweight and low SES (€2,711). The results of this study indicate that SES may play a pivotal role in designing cost-effective and sustainable interventions to prevent and treat overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity may help public policy planners to make informed decisions about obesity programs targeted at vulnerable SES groups. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Numerical solution of Boltzmann tranport equation for TEA CO 2 laser having nitrogen-lean gas mixtures to predict laser characteristics and gas lifetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Manoj; Khare, Jai; Nath, A. K.

2007-02-01

Selective laser isotope separation by TEA CO 2 laser often needs short tail-free pulses. Using laser mixtures having very little nitrogen almost tail free laser pulses can be generated. The laser pulse characteristics and its gas lifetime is an important issue for long-term laser operation. Boltzmann transport equation is therefore solved numerically for TEA CO 2 laser gas mixtures having very little nitrogen to predict electron energy distribution function (EEDF). The distribution function is used to calculate various excitation and dissociation rate of CO 2 to predict laser pulse characteristics and laser gas lifetime, respectively. Laser rate equations have been solved with the calculated excitation rates for numerically evaluated discharge current and voltage profiles to calculate laser pulse shape. The calculated laser pulse shape and duration are in good agreement with the measured laser characteristics. The gas lifetime is estimated by integrating the equation governing the dissociation of CO 2. An experimental study of gas lifetime was carried out using quadrapole mass analyzer for such mixtures to estimate the O 2 being produced due to dissociation of CO 2 in the pulse discharge. The theoretically calculated O 2 concentration in the laser gas mixture matches with experimentally observed value. In the present TEA CO 2 laser system, for stable discharge the O 2 concentration should be below 0.2%.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of evolocumab in the FOURIER study: a Canadian analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Todd C; Kaouache, Mohammed; Grover, Steven A

2018-04-03

Evolocumab, a proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor, has been shown to reduce low-density lipoprotein levels by up to 60%. Despite the absence of a reduction in overall or cardiovascular mortality in the Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects With Elevated Risk (FOURIER) trial, some believe that, with longer treatment, such a benefit might eventually be realized. Our aim was to estimate the potential mortality benefit over a patient's lifetime and the cost per year of life saved (YOLS) for an average Canadian with established coronary artery disease. We also sought to estimate the price threshold at which evolocumab might be considered cost-effective for secondary prevention in Canada. We calibrated the Cardio-metabolic Model, a well-validated tool for predicting cardiovascular events and life expectancy, to the reduction in nonfatal events seen in the FOURIER trial. Assuming that long-term treatment will eventually result in mortality benefits, we estimated YOLSs and cost per YOLS with evolocumab treatment plus a statin compared to a statin alone. We then estimated the annual drug costs that would provide a 50% chance of being cost-effective at willingness-to-pay values of $50 000 and $100 000. In secondary prevention in patients similar to those in the FOURIER study, evolocumab treatment would save an average of 0.34 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27-0.41) life-years at a cost of $101 899 (95% CI $97 325-$106 473), yielding a cost per YOLS of $299 482. We estimate that to have a 50% probability of achieving a cost per YOLS below $50 000 and $100 000 would require annual drug costs below $1200 and $2300, respectively. At current pricing, the use of evolocumab for secondary prevention is unlikely to be cost-effective in Canada. Copyright 2018, Joule Inc. or its licensors.

A Cohort Effect of the Sexual Revolution May Be Masking an Increase in Human Papillomavirus Detection at Menopause in the United States

PubMed Central

Gravitt, Patti E.; Rositch, Anne F.; Silver, Michelle I.; Marks, Morgan A.; Chang, Kathryn; Burke, Anne E.; Viscidi, Raphael P.

2013-01-01

Background. Cohort effects, new sex partnerships, and human papillomavirus (HPV) reactivation have been posited as explanations for the bimodal age-specific HPV prevalence observed in some populations; no studies have systematically evaluated the reasons for the lack of a second peak in the United States. Methods. A cohort of 843 women aged 35–60 years were enrolled into a 2-year, semiannual follow-up study. Age-specific HPV prevalence was estimated in strata defined by a lower risk of prior infection (<5 self-reported lifetime sex partners) and a higher risk of prior infection (≥5 lifetime sex partners). The interaction between age and lifetime sex partners was tested using likelihood ratio statistics. Population attributable risk (PAR) was estimated using Levin's formula. Results. The age-specific prevalence of 14 high-risk HPV genotypes (HR-HPV) declined with age among women with <5 lifetime sex partners but not among women with ≥5 lifetime sex partners (P = .01 for interaction). The PAR for HR-HPV due to ≥5 lifetime sex partners was higher among older women (87.2%), compared with younger women (28.0%). In contrast, the PAR associated with a new sex partner was 28% among women aged 35–49 years and 7.7% among women aged 50–60 years. Conclusions. A lower cumulative probability of HPV infection among women with a sexual debut before the sexual revolution may be masking an age-related increase in HPV reactivation in the United States. PMID:23242540

Importance of factors determining the effective lifetime of a mass, long-lasting, insecticidal net distribution: a sensitivity analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) reduce malaria transmission by protecting individuals from infectious bites, and by reducing mosquito survival. In recent years, millions of LLINs have been distributed across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Over time, LLINs decay physically and chemically and are destroyed, making repeated interventions necessary to prevent a resurgence of malaria. Because its effects on transmission are important (more so than the effects of individual protection), estimates of the lifetime of mass distribution rounds should be based on the effective length of epidemiological protection. Methods Simulation models, parameterised using available field data, were used to analyse how the distribution's effective lifetime depends on the transmission setting and on LLIN characteristics. Factors considered were the pre-intervention transmission level, initial coverage, net attrition, and both physical and chemical decay. An ensemble of 14 stochastic individual-based model variants for malaria in humans was used, combined with a deterministic model for malaria in mosquitoes. Results The effective lifetime was most sensitive to the pre-intervention transmission level, with a lifetime of almost 10 years at an entomological inoculation rate of two infectious bites per adult per annum (ibpapa), but of little more than 2 years at 256 ibpapa. The LLIN attrition rate and the insecticide decay rate were the next most important parameters. The lifetime was surprisingly insensitive to physical decay parameters, but this could change as physical integrity gains importance with the emergence and spread of pyrethroid resistance. Conclusions The strong dependency of the effective lifetime on the pre-intervention transmission level indicated that the required distribution frequency may vary more with the local entomological situation than with LLIN quality or the characteristics of the distribution system. This highlights the need for malaria monitoring both before and during intervention programmes, particularly since there are likely to be strong variations between years and over short distances. The majority of SSA's population falls into exposure categories where the lifetime is relatively long, but because exposure estimates are highly uncertain, it is necessary to consider subsequent interventions before the end of the expected effective lifetime based on an imprecise transmission measure. PMID:22244509

Importance of factors determining the effective lifetime of a mass, long-lasting, insecticidal net distribution: a sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Briët, Olivier J T; Hardy, Diggory; Smith, Thomas A

2012-01-13

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) reduce malaria transmission by protecting individuals from infectious bites, and by reducing mosquito survival. In recent years, millions of LLINs have been distributed across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Over time, LLINs decay physically and chemically and are destroyed, making repeated interventions necessary to prevent a resurgence of malaria. Because its effects on transmission are important (more so than the effects of individual protection), estimates of the lifetime of mass distribution rounds should be based on the effective length of epidemiological protection. Simulation models, parameterised using available field data, were used to analyse how the distribution's effective lifetime depends on the transmission setting and on LLIN characteristics. Factors considered were the pre-intervention transmission level, initial coverage, net attrition, and both physical and chemical decay. An ensemble of 14 stochastic individual-based model variants for malaria in humans was used, combined with a deterministic model for malaria in mosquitoes. The effective lifetime was most sensitive to the pre-intervention transmission level, with a lifetime of almost 10 years at an entomological inoculation rate of two infectious bites per adult per annum (ibpapa), but of little more than 2 years at 256 ibpapa. The LLIN attrition rate and the insecticide decay rate were the next most important parameters. The lifetime was surprisingly insensitive to physical decay parameters, but this could change as physical integrity gains importance with the emergence and spread of pyrethroid resistance. The strong dependency of the effective lifetime on the pre-intervention transmission level indicated that the required distribution frequency may vary more with the local entomological situation than with LLIN quality or the characteristics of the distribution system. This highlights the need for malaria monitoring both before and during intervention programmes, particularly since there are likely to be strong variations between years and over short distances. The majority of SSA's population falls into exposure categories where the lifetime is relatively long, but because exposure estimates are highly uncertain, it is necessary to consider subsequent interventions before the end of the expected effective lifetime based on an imprecise transmission measure.

Direct measurements of the lifetime of medium-heavy hypernuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, X.; Tang, L.; Chen, C.; Margaryan, A.; Wood, S. A.; Achenbach, P.; Ahmidouch, A.; Albayrak, I.; Androic, D.; Asaturyan, A.; Asaturyan, R.; Ates, O.; Badui, R.; Baturin, P.; Boeglin, W.; Bono, J.; Brash, E.; Carter, P.; Chen, X.; Chiba, A.; Christy, M. E.; Dalton, M. M.; Danagoulian, S.; De Leo, R.; Doi, D.; Elaasar, M.; Ent, R.; Fenker, H.; Fujii, Y.; Furic, M.; Gabrielyan, M.; Gan, L.; Garibaldi, F.; Gaskell, D.; Gasparian, A.; Gogami, T.; Hashimoto, O.; Horn, T.; Hu, B.; Hungerford, Ed V.; Jones, M.; Kanda, H.; Kaneta, M.; Kawama, D.; Khanal, H.; Kohl, M.; Liyanage, A.; Luo, W.; Maeda, K.; Markowitz, P.; Marikyan, G.; Maruta, T.; Matsumura, A.; Maxwell, V.; Mkrtchyan, A.; Mkrtchyan, H.; Nagao, S.; Nakamura, S. N.; Narayan, A.; Neville, C.; Niculescu, G.; Niculescu, M. I.; Nunez, A.; Nuruzzaman; Okayasu, Y.; Petkovic, T.; Pochodzalla, J.; Reinhold, J.; Rodriguez, V. M.; Samanta, C.; Sawatzky, B.; Seva, T.; Shichijo, A.; Tadevosyan, V.; Taniya, N.; Tsukada, K.; Veilleux, M.; Vulcan, W.; Wesselmann, F. R.; Yamamoto, T.; Ye, Z.; Yokota, K.; Yuan, L.; Zhamkochyan, S.; Zhu, L.; HKS (JLab E02-017) Collaboration

2018-05-01

The lifetime of a Λ particle embedded in a nucleus (hypernucleus) decreases from that of free Λ decay mainly due to the opening of the ΛN → NN weak decay channel. However, it is generally believed that the lifetime of a hypernucleus attains a constant value (saturation) for medium to heavy hypernuclear masses, yet this hypothesis has been difficult to verify. This paper presents a direct measurement of the lifetime of medium-heavy hypernuclei that were hyper-fragments produced by fission or break-up from heavy hypernuclei initially produced with a 2.34 GeV photon-beam incident on thin Fe, Cu, Ag, and Bi target foils. For each event, fragments were detected in coincident pairs by a low-pressure multi-wire proportional chamber system. The lifetime was extracted from decay time spectrum formed by the difference of the time zeros between the pairs. The measured lifetime from each target is actually a statistical average over a range of mass with mean about 1/2 of the target mass and appears to be a constant of about 200 ps. Although this result cannot exclude unexpected shorter or longer lifetimes for some specific hypernuclei or hypernuclear states, it shows that a systematic decrease in lifetime as hypernuclear mass increases is not a general feature for hypernuclei with mean mass up to A ≈ 130. On the other hand, the success of this experiment and its technique shows that the time delayed fissions observed and used by all the lifetime measurements done so far on heavy hypernuclei could likely have originated from hyper-fragments lighter than the assumed masses.

Estimating the Reliability of Electronic Parts in High Radiation Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everline, Chester; Clark, Karla; Man, Guy; Rasmussen, Robert; Johnston, Allan; Kohlhase, Charles; Paulos, Todd

2008-01-01

Radiation effects on materials and electronic parts constrain the lifetime of flight systems visiting Europa. Understanding mission lifetime limits is critical to the design and planning of such a mission. Therefore, the operational aspects of radiation dose are a mission success issue. To predict and manage mission lifetime in a high radiation environment, system engineers need capable tools to trade radiation design choices against system design and reliability, and science achievements. Conventional tools and approaches provided past missions with conservative designs without the ability to predict their lifetime beyond the baseline mission.This paper describes a more systematic approach to understanding spacecraft design margin, allowing better prediction of spacecraft lifetime. This is possible because of newly available electronic parts radiation effects statistics and an enhanced spacecraft system reliability methodology. This new approach can be used in conjunction with traditional approaches for mission design. This paper describes the fundamentals of the new methodology.

OCS, stratospheric aerosols and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Whitten, R. C.; Toon, O. B.; Pollack, J. B.; Hamill, P.

1980-01-01

The carbonyl sulfide budget in the atmosphere is examined, and the effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosol particles, formed in part from atmospheric carbonyl sulfate, on global climate are considered. From tropospheric measurements of carbon disulfide and the rate constant for the conversion of carbon disulfide to carbonyl sulfide, it is estimated that five Tg of carbonyl sulfide/year could be generated from carbon disulfide in the atmosphere. Direct sources of OCS include the refining and combustion of fossil fuels (1 Tg/year), natural and agricultural fires (0.2 to 0.3 Tg/year), and soils (0.5 Tg/year), yielding a total influx of from 1 to 10 Tg/year, up to 50% of which may be anthropogenic. Considerations of carbonyl sulfide sinks and concentrations indicate an atmospheric lifetime of one year, with OCS the major atmospheric sulfur compound. It is estimated that a ten-fold increase in atmospheric carbonyl sulfide would cause an optical depth perturbation comparable to that of a modest volcanic eruption, leading to an average global surface temperature decrease of 0.1 K, in addition to a possible greenhouse effect.

Ascariasis, respiratory diseases and production indices in selected Prince Edward Island swine herds.

PubMed Central

Bernardo, T M; Dohoo, I R; Donald, A; Ogilvie, T; Cawthorn, R

1990-01-01

The levels of production, ascarid burden and respiratory disease were measured on 15 purposively selected swine herds, and the relationships between the various measures of ascarid burden were examined. On each farm 30 randomly selected pigs were weighed and rectal fecal samples were collected at approximately 11, 15, 19 and 22 weeks of age, and at slaughter. Fecal ascarid-egg counts and duration of infection were combined to calculate a composite measure of ascarid burden called "lifetime burden". At the abattoir the carcass weight and levels of anteroventral pneumonia, atrophic rhinitis, and liver lesions were recorded for each hog. The number of ascarids in the small intestines were counted. Study hogs were marketed at an average of 189 +/- 22 days. The average dressed carcass weight was 77.0 +/- 5.9 kg and the mean average daily gain was 0.519 +/- 0.071 kg/day. The percent of hogs with ascariasis varied widely among farms, no matter what measure of ascariasis was used; the percent with intestinal ascarids at slaughter ranged from 0% to 96%, the percent that shed ascarid eggs during their lifetime ranged from 0% to 100%, and the range for hogs with liver lesions ranged from 27% to 100%. Of the hogs slaughtered, 82% had milk spot lesions, 32% shed ascarid eggs during their lifetime and 35% had intestinal ascarids. The latter had an average of 12 intestinal ascarids. Anteroventral pneumonia occurred in 55% of the slaughtered hogs and 9% had atrophic rhinitis scores of five. The percent of hogs per farm with pneumonia ranged from 17% to 96%. The percent of hogs per farm with atrophic rhinitis scores of five ranged from 0% to 57%. PMID:2357664

American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7: Avoiding Heart Failure and Preserving Cardiac Structure and Function.

PubMed

Folsom, Aaron R; Shah, Amil M; Lutsey, Pamela L; Roetker, Nicholas S; Alonso, Alvaro; Avery, Christy L; Miedema, Michael D; Konety, Suma; Chang, Patricia P; Solomon, Scott D

2015-09-01

Many people may underappreciate the role of lifestyle in avoiding heart failure. We estimated whether greater adherence in middle age to American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 guidelines—on smoking, body mass, physical activity, diet, cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose—is associated with lower lifetime risk of heart failure and greater preservation of cardiac structure and function in old age. We studied the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study cohort of 13,462 adults ages 45-64 years in 1987-1989. From the 1987-1989 risk factor measurements, we created a Life's Simple 7 score (range 0-14, giving 2 points for ideal, 1 point for intermediate, and 0 points for poor components). We identified 2218 incident heart failure events using surveillance of hospital discharge and death codes through 2011. In addition, in 4855 participants free of clinical cardiovascular disease in 2011-2013, we performed echocardiography from which we quantified left ventricular hypertrophy and diastolic dysfunction. One in four participants (25.5%) developed heart failure through age 85 years. Yet, this lifetime heart failure risk was 14.4% for those with a middle-age Life's Simple 7 score of 10-14 (optimal), 26.8% for a score of 5-9 (average), and 48.6% for a score of 0-4 (inadequate). Among those with no clinical cardiovascular event, the prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy in late life was approximately 40% as common, and diastolic dysfunction was approximately 60% as common, among those with an optimal middle-age Life's Simple 7 score, compared with an inadequate score. Greater achievement of American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 in middle age is associated with a lower lifetime occurrence of heart failure and greater preservation of cardiac structure and function. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Brief Clinician Tobacco Counseling for Youth and Adults.

PubMed

Maciosek, Michael V; LaFrance, Amy B; Dehmer, Steven P; McGree, Dana A; Xu, Zack; Flottemesch, Thomas J; Solberg, Leif I

2017-01-01

To help clinicians and care systems determine the priority for tobacco counseling in busy clinic schedules, we assessed the lifetime health and economic value of annually counseling youth to discourage smoking initiation and of annually counseling adults to encourage cessation. We conducted a microsimulation analysis to estimate the health impact and cost effectiveness of both types of tobacco counseling in a US birth cohort of 4,000,000. The model used for the analysis was constructed from nationally representative data sets and structured literature reviews. Compared with no tobacco counseling, the model predicts that annual counseling for youth would reduce the average prevalence of smoking cigarettes during adult years by 2.0 percentage points, whereas annual counseling for adults will reduce prevalence by 3.8 percentage points. Youth counseling would prevent 42,686 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 756,601 over the lifetime of the cohort. Adult counseling would prevent 69,901 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase QALYs by 1,044,392. Youth and adult counseling would yield net savings of $225 and $580 per person, respectively. If annual tobacco counseling was provided to the cohort during both youth and adult years, then adult smoking prevalence would be 5.5 percentage points lower compared with no counseling, and there would be 105,917 fewer smoking-attributable fatalities over their lifetimes. Only one-third of the potential health and economic benefits of counseling are being realized at current counseling rates. Brief tobacco counseling provides substantial health benefits while producing cost savings. Both youth and adult intervention are high-priority uses of limited clinician time. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Effect of rare earth doping on optical and spectroscopic characteristics of BaZrO3:Eu3+,Tb3+ perovskites.

PubMed

Katyayan, Shambhavi; Agrawal, Sadhana

2018-04-04

This paper reports structural investigations of rare earth doped BaZrO 3 phosphors synthesized by Solid state reaction technique with varying concentrations of Eu 3+ and Tb 3+ from 0 mol% to 2 mol%. The synthesized phosphors show enhanced variable emissions in the visible region corresponding to different hypersensitive electronic transitions of Eu 3+ and Tb 3+ ions. With cubic structure confirmed in XRD analysis, the FESEM images show uniform grain connectivity and homogeneity of prepared samples. The TEM micrographs of the synthesized phosphors show agglomerated irregular structures. The synthesized phosphors were also subjected to FTIR, Raman, EDXS analysis along with studies of thermoluminescent and photoluminescent characteristics. On subjecting to 229 nm (UV) excitation, the phosphors show enhanced PL emissions corresponding to 571 nm ( 5 D 0 - 7 F 0 ), 591 nm ( 5 D 0 - 7 F 1 ), 615 nm ( 5 D 0 - 7 F 2 ) and 678 nm ( 5 D 0 - 7 F 4 ) hypersensitive transitions of Eu 3+ ions and emission peaks at 489 nm ( 5 D 4 - 7 F 6 ), 539 nm ( 5 D 4 - 7 F 5 ), 589 nm ( 5 D 4 - 7 F 4 ) and 632 nm ( 5 D 4 - 7 F 3 ) accounting for electronic transitions of Tb 3+ ions respectively. The computed average PL lifetime is 14.014 s. In the TL analysis, the second order of kinetics with the activation energy varying from 5.0 × 10 -1 eV to 6.6 × 10 -1 eV is reported. The maximum TL lifetime is estimated as 19.4985 min in the TL lifetime analysis.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Brief Clinician Tobacco Counseling for Youth and Adults

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; LaFrance, Amy B.; Dehmer, Steven P.; McGree, Dana A.; Xu, Zack; Flottemesch, Thomas J.; Solberg, Leif I.

2017-01-01

PURPOSE To help clinicians and care systems determine the priority for tobacco counseling in busy clinic schedules, we assessed the lifetime health and economic value of annually counseling youth to discourage smoking initiation and of annually counseling adults to encourage cessation. METHODS We conducted a microsimulation analysis to estimate the health impact and cost effectiveness of both types of tobacco counseling in a US birth cohort of 4,000,000. The model used for the analysis was constructed from nationally representative data sets and structured literature reviews. RESULTS Compared with no tobacco counseling, the model predicts that annual counseling for youth would reduce the average prevalence of smoking cigarettes during adult years by 2.0 percentage points, whereas annual counseling for adults will reduce prevalence by 3.8 percentage points. Youth counseling would prevent 42,686 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 756,601 over the lifetime of the cohort. Adult counseling would prevent 69,901 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase QALYs by 1,044,392. Youth and adult counseling would yield net savings of $225 and $580 per person, respectively. If annual tobacco counseling was provided to the cohort during both youth and adult years, then adult smoking prevalence would be 5.5 percentage points lower compared with no counseling, and there would be 105,917 fewer smoking-attributable fatalities over their lifetimes. Only one-third of the potential health and economic benefits of counseling are being realized at current counseling rates. CONCLUSIONS Brief tobacco counseling provides substantial health benefits while producing cost savings. Both youth and adult intervention are high-priority uses of limited clinician time. PMID:28376459

Effect of rare earth doping on optical and spectroscopic characteristics of BaZrO3:Eu3+,Tb3+ perovskites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katyayan, Shambhavi; Agrawal, Sadhana

2018-06-01

This paper reports structural investigations of rare earth doped BaZrO3 phosphors synthesized by Solid state reaction technique with varying concentrations of Eu3+ and Tb3+ from 0 mol% to 2 mol%. The synthesized phosphors show enhanced variable emissions in the visible region corresponding to different hypersensitive electronic transitions of Eu3+ and Tb3+ ions. With cubic structure confirmed in XRD analysis, the FESEM images show uniform grain connectivity and homogeneity of prepared samples. The TEM micrographs of the synthesized phosphors show agglomerated irregular structures. The synthesized phosphors were also subjected to FTIR, Raman, EDXS analysis along with studies of thermoluminescent and photoluminescent characteristics. On subjecting to 229 nm (UV) excitation, the phosphors show enhanced PL emissions corresponding to 571 nm (5D0-7F0), 591 nm (5D0-7F1), 615 nm (5D0-7F2) and 678 nm (5D0-7F4) hypersensitive transitions of Eu3+ ions and emission peaks at 489 nm (5D4-7F6), 539 nm (5D4-7F5), 589 nm (5D4-7F4) and 632 nm (5D4-7F3) accounting for electronic transitions of Tb3+ ions respectively. The computed average PL lifetime is 14.014 s. In the TL analysis, the second order of kinetics with the activation energy varying from 5.0 × 10‑1 eV to 6.6 × 10‑1 eV is reported. The maximum TL lifetime is estimated as 19.4985 min in the TL lifetime analysis.

The Additional Costs and Health Effects of a Patient Having Overweight or Obesity: A Computational Model.

PubMed

Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Adam, Atif; Cheskin, Lawrence J; Bartsch, Sarah M; Lee, Bruce Y

2017-10-01

This paper estimates specific additional disease outcomes and costs that could be prevented by helping a patient go from an obesity or overweight category to a normal weight category at different ages. This information could help physicians, other health care workers, patients, and third-party payers determine how to prioritize weight reduction. A computational Markov model was developed that represented the BMI status, chronic health states, health outcomes, and associated costs (from various perspectives) for an adult at different age points throughout his or her lifetime. Incremental costs were calculated for adult patients with obesity or overweight (vs. normal weight) at different starting ages. For example, for a metabolically healthy 20-year-old, having obesity (vs. normal weight) added lifetime third-party payer costs averaging $14,059 (95% range: $13,956-$14,163), productivity losses of $14,141 ($13,969-$14,312), and total societal costs of $28,020 ($27,751-$28,289); having overweight vs. normal weight added $5,055 ($4,967-$5,144), $5,358 ($5,199-$5,518), and $10,365 ($10,140-$10,590). For a metabolically healthy 50-year-old, having obesity added $15,925 ($15,831-$16,020), $20,120 ($19,887-$20,352), and $36,278 ($35,977-$36,579); having overweight added $5,866 ($5,779-$5,953), $10,205 ($9,980-$10,429), and $16,169 ($15,899-$16,438). Incremental lifetime costs of a patient with obesity or overweight (vs. normal weight) increased with the patient's age, peaked at age 50, and decreased with older ages. However, weight reduction even in older adults still yielded incremental cost savings. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Cumulative radiation exposure and cancer risk estimation in children with heart disease.

PubMed

Johnson, Jason N; Hornik, Christoph P; Li, Jennifer S; Benjamin, Daniel K; Yoshizumi, Terry T; Reiman, Robert E; Frush, Donald P; Hill, Kevin D

2014-07-08

Children with heart disease are frequently exposed to imaging examinations that use ionizing radiation. Although radiation exposure is potentially carcinogenic, there are limited data on cumulative exposure and the associated cancer risk. We evaluated the cumulative effective dose of radiation from all radiation examinations to estimate the lifetime attributable risk of cancer in children with heart disease. Children ≤6 years of age who had previously undergone 1 of 7 primary surgical procedures for heart disease at a single institution between 2005 and 2010 were eligible for the study. Exposure to radiation-producing examinations was tabulated, and cumulative effective dose was calculated in millisieverts. These data were used to estimate lifetime attributable risk of cancer above baseline using the approach of the Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII. The cohort included 337 children exposed to 13 932 radiation examinations. Conventional radiographs represented 92% of examinations, whereas cardiac catheterization and computed tomography accounted for 81% of cumulative exposure. Overall median cumulative effective dose was 2.7 mSv (range, 0.1-76.9 mSv), and the associated lifetime attributable risk of cancer was 0.07% (range, 0.001%-6.5%). Median lifetime attributable risk of cancer ranged widely depending on surgical complexity (0.006%-1.6% for the 7 surgical cohorts) and was twice as high in females per unit exposure (0.04% versus 0.02% per 1-mSv effective dose for females versus males, respectively; P<0.001). Overall radiation exposures in children with heart disease are relatively low; however, select cohorts receive significant exposure. Cancer risk estimation highlights the need to limit radiation dose, particularly for high-exposure modalities. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Lifetime testing results and diagnostic performance prediction of linear coolers at Thales Cryogenics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Weijden, H.; Benschop, T.; van de Groep, W.; Willems, D.

2011-06-01

Thales Cryogenics (TCBV) has an extensive background in delivering long-life cryogenic coolers for military, civil and space programs. During the last years many technical improvements have increased the lifetime of coolers resulting in significantly higher MTTF's. Lifetime endurance tests are used to validate these performance increases. An update will be given on lifetime test of a selection of TCBV's coolers. MTTF figures indicate the statistical average lifetimes for a large population of coolers. However, for the user of IR camera's and spectrometers a detailed view on the performance of an individual cooler and the possible impact of its performance degradation during its lifetime is very important. Thales Cryogenics is developing Cooler Diagnostic Software (CDS), which can be implemented in the firmware of its DSP based cooler drive electronics. With this implemented software the monitoring of the main cooler parameters during the lifetime in the equipment will be possible, including the prediction of the expected cooler performance availability. Based on this software it will be possible to analyze the status of the cooler inside the equipment and, supported by the lifetime knowledge at Thales Cryogenics, make essential choices on the maintenance of equipment and the replacement of coolers. In the paper, we will give an overview of potential situations in which such a predictive algorithm can be used. We will present the required interaction with future users to make an optimal interaction and interpretation of the generated data possible.

Economic Decision Model Suggests Total Shoulder Arthroplasty is Superior to Hemiarthroplasty in Young Patients with End-stage Shoulder Arthritis.

PubMed

Bhat, Suneel B; Lazarus, Mark; Getz, Charles; Williams, Gerald R; Namdari, Surena

2016-11-01

Young patients with severe glenohumeral arthritis pose a challenging management problem for shoulder surgeons. Two controversial treatment options are total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) and hemiarthroplasty. This study aims to characterize costs, as expressed by reimbursements for episodes of acute care, and outcomes associated with each treatment. We asked: for patients 30 to 50 years old with severe end-stage glenohumeral arthritis refractory to conservative management, (1) are more years of patient-derived satisfactory outcome by the Neer criteria and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) achieved using a TSA or a hemiarthroplasty; (2) does a TSA or a hemiarthroplasty result in a greater number of revision procedures; and (3) does a TSA or a hemiarthroplasty result in greater associated costs to society? The incidence of glenohumeral arthritis among 30- to 50-year-old patients, outcomes, reoperation probabilities, and associated costs from TSA and hemiarthroplasty were derived from the literature. A Markov chain decision tree model was developed from these estimates with number of revisions, cost of management for patients to 70 years old as defined by reimbursement for acute-care episodes, years with "satisfactory" or "excellent" outcome by the modified Neer criteria, and QALYs gained as principle outcome measures. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted with a cohort representing the at-risk population for shoulder arthritis between 30 and 50 years old in the United States. During the lifetime of a cohort of 5279 patients, hemiarthroplasty as the initial treatment resulted in 59,574 patient years of satisfactory or excellent results (11.29 per patient) and average QALYs gained of 6.55, whereas TSA as the initial treatment resulted in 85,969 patient years of satisfactory or excellent results (16.29 per patient) and average QALYs gained of 7.96. During the lifetime of a cohort of 5279 patients, a hemiarthroplasty as the initial treatment led to 2090 lifetime revisions (0.4 per patient), whereas a TSA as the initial treatment led to 1605 lifetime revisions (0.3 per patient). During the lifetime of a cohort of 5279 patients, a hemiarthroplasty as initial treatment resulted in USD 132,500,000 associated direct reimbursements (USD 25,000 per patient), whereas a TSA as initial treatment resulted in USD 125,500,000 associated direct reimbursements (USD 23,700 per patient). Treatment of end-stage glenohumeral arthritis refractory to conservative treatment in patients 30 to 50 years old in the United States with TSA, instead of hemiarthroplasty, would result in greater cost savings, avoid a substantial number of revision procedures, and result in greater years of satisfactory or excellent patient outcomes and greater QALYs gained. On a population level, TSA is the cost-effective treatment for glenohumeral arthritis in patients 30 to 50 years old. Level II, economic and decision analysis study.

Critical review of on-board capacity estimation techniques for lithium-ion batteries in electric and hybrid electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmann, Alexander; Waag, Wladislaw; Marongiu, Andrea; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2015-05-01

This work provides an overview of available methods and algorithms for on-board capacity estimation of lithium-ion batteries. An accurate state estimation for battery management systems in electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles is becoming more essential due to the increasing attention paid to safety and lifetime issues. Different approaches for the estimation of State-of-Charge, State-of-Health and State-of-Function are discussed and analyzed by many authors and researchers in the past. On-board estimation of capacity in large lithium-ion battery packs is definitely one of the most crucial challenges of battery monitoring in the aforementioned vehicles. This is mostly due to high dynamic operation and conditions far from those used in laboratory environments as well as the large variation in aging behavior of each cell in the battery pack. Accurate capacity estimation allows an accurate driving range prediction and accurate calculation of a battery's maximum energy storage capability in a vehicle. At the same time it acts as an indicator for battery State-of-Health and Remaining Useful Lifetime estimation.

Gun violence in Americans' social network during their lifetime.

PubMed

Kalesan, Bindu; Weinberg, Janice; Galea, Sandro

2016-12-01

The overall burden of gun violence death and injury in the US is now well understood. However, no study has shown the extent to which gun violence is associated with the individual lives of Americans. We used fatal and non-fatal gun injury rates in 2013 from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) and generally accepted estimates about the size of an American's social network to determine the likelihood that any given person will know someone in their personal social network who is a victim of gun violence during their lifetime. We derived estimates in the overall population and among racial/ethnic groups and by gun-injury intent. The likelihood of knowing a gun violence victim within any given personal network over a lifetime is 99.85% (99.8% to 99.9%). The likelihood among non-Hispanic white, black, Hispanic and other race Americans were 97.1%, 99.9%, 99.5% and 88.9% respectively. Nearly all Americans of all racial/ethnic groups are likely to know a victim of gun violence in their social network during their lifetime. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Reducing the Frequency and Duration Criteria for Binge Eating on Lifetime Prevalence of Bulimia Nervosa and Binge Eating Disorder: Implications for DSM-5

PubMed Central

Trace, Sara E.; Thornton, Laura M.; Root, Tammy L.; Mazzeo, Suzanne E.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Bulik, Cynthia M.

2011-01-01

Objective We assessed the impact of reducing the binge eating frequency and duration thresholds on the diagnostic criteria for bulimia nervosa (BN) and binge eating disorder (BED). Method We estimated the lifetime population prevalence of BN and BED in 13,295 female twins from the Swedish Twin study of Adults: Genes and Environment employing a range of frequency and duration thresholds. External validation (risk to co-twin) was used to investigate empirical evidence for an optimal binge eating frequency threshold. Results The lifetime prevalence estimates of BN and BED increased linearly as the frequency criterion decreased. As the required duration increased, the prevalence of BED decreased slightly. Discontinuity in co-twin risk was observed in BN between at least four times per month and at least five times per month. This model could not be fit for BED. Discussion The proposed changes to the DSM-5 binge eating frequency and duration criteria would allow for better detection of binge eating pathology without resulting in a markedly higher lifetime prevalence of BN or BED. PMID:21882218

One method for life time estimation of a bucket wheel machine for coal moving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vîlceanu, Fl; Iancu, C.

2016-08-01

Rehabilitation of outdated equipment with lifetime expired, or in the ultimate life period, together with high cost investments for their replacement, makes rational the efforts made to extend their life. Rehabilitation involves checking operational safety based on relevant expertise of metal structures supporting effective resistance and assessing the residual lifetime. The bucket wheel machine for coal constitute basic machine within deposits of coal of power plants. The estimate of remaining life can be done by checking the loading on the most stressed subassembly by Finite Element Analysis on a welding detail. The paper presents step-by-step the method of calculus applied in order to establishing the residual lifetime of a bucket wheel machine for coal moving using non-destructive methods of study (fatigue cracking analysis + FEA). In order to establish the actual state of machine and areas subject to study, was done FEA of this mining equipment, performed on the geometric model of mechanical analyzed structures, with powerful CAD/FEA programs. By applying the method it can be calculated residual lifetime, by extending the results from the most stressed area of the equipment to the entire machine, and thus saving time and money from expensive replacements.

Development of Precise Lunar Orbit Propagator and Lunar Polar Orbiter's Lifetime Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Young-Joo; Park, Sang-Young; Kim, Hae-Dong; Sim, Eun-Sup

2010-06-01

To prepare for a Korean lunar orbiter mission, a precise lunar orbit propagator; Yonsei precise lunar orbit propagator (YSPLOP) is developed. In the propagator, accelerations due to the Moon's non-spherical gravity, the point masses of the Earth, Moon, Sun, Mars, Jupiter and also, solar radiation pressures can be included. The developed propagator's performance is validated and propagation errors between YSPOLP and STK/Astrogator are found to have about maximum 4-m, in along-track direction during 30 days (Earth's time) of propagation. Also, it is found that the lifetime of a lunar polar orbiter is strongly affected by the different degrees and orders of the lunar gravity model, by a third body's gravitational attractions (especially the Earth), and by the different orbital inclinations. The reliable lifetime of circular lunar polar orbiter at about 100 km altitude is estimated to have about 160 days (Earth's time). However, to estimate the reasonable lifetime of circular lunar polar orbiter at about 100 km altitude, it is strongly recommended to consider at least 50 × 50 degrees and orders of the lunar gravity field. The results provided in this paper are expected to make further progress in the design fields of Korea's lunar orbiter missions.

Service Lifetime Estimation of EPDM Rubber Based on Accelerated Aging Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jie; Li, Xiangbo; Xu, Likun; He, Tao

2017-04-01

Service lifetime of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber at room temperature (25 °C) was estimated based on accelerated aging tests. The study followed sealing stress loss on compressed cylinder samples by compression stress relaxation methods. The results showed that the cylinder samples of EPDM can quickly reach the physical relaxation equilibrium by using the over-compression method. The non-Arrhenius behavior occurred at the lowest aging temperature. A significant linear relationship was observed between compression set values and normalized stress decay results, and the relationship was not related to the ambient temperature of aging. It was estimated that the sealing stress loss in view of practical application would occur after around 86.8 years at 25 °C. The estimations at 25 °C based on the non-Arrhenius behavior were in agreement with compression set data from storage aging tests in natural environment.

Lifetime Prevalence of Investigating Child Maltreatment Among US Children.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunil; Wildeman, Christopher; Jonson-Reid, Melissa; Drake, Brett

2017-02-01

To estimate the lifetime prevalence of official investigations for child maltreatment among children in the United States. We used the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System Child Files (2003-2014) and Census data to develop synthetic cohort life tables to estimate the cumulative prevalence of reported childhood maltreatment. We extend previous work, which explored only confirmed rates of maltreatment, and we add new estimations of maltreatment by subtype, age, and ethnicity. We estimate that 37.4% of all children experience a child protective services investigation by age 18 years. Consistent with previous literature, we found a higher rate for African American children (53.0%) and the lowest rate for Asians/Pacific Islanders (10.2%). Child maltreatment investigations are more common than is generally recognized when viewed across the lifespan. Building on other recent work, our data suggest a critical need for increased preventative and treatment resources in the area of child maltreatment.

Hydrocarbon ratios during PEM-WEST A: A model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKeen, S. A.; Liu, S. C.; Hsie, E.-Y.; Lin, X.; Bradshaw, J. D.; Smyth, S.; Gregory, G. L.; Blake, D. R.

1996-01-01

A useful application of the hydrocarbon measurements collected during the Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM-West A) is as markers or indices of atmospheric processing. Traditionally, ratios of particular hydrocarbons have been interpreted as photochemical indices, since much of the effect due to atmospheric transport is assumed to cancel by using ratios. However, an ever increasing body of observatonial and theoretical evidence suggests that turbulent mixing associated with atmospheric transport influences certain hydrocarbon ratios significantly. In this study a three-dimensional mesoscale photochemical model is used to study the interaction of photochemistry and atmospheric mixing on select hydrocarbons. In terms of correlations and functional relationships between various alkanes, the model results and PEM-West A hydrocarbon observations share many similar characteristics as well as explainable differences. When the three-dimensional model is applied to inert tracers, hydrocarbon ratios andother relationships exactly follow those expected by simple dilution with model-imposed "background air," and the three-dimensional results for reactive hydrocarbons are quite consistent with a combined influence of photochemistry and simple dilution. Analogous to these model results, relationships between various hydrocarbons collected during the PEM-West A experiment appear to be consistent with this simplified picture of photochemistry and dilution affecting individual air masses. When hydrocarbons are chosen that have negligible contributions to clean background air, unambiguous determinations of the relative contributions to photochemistry and dilution can be estimated from the hydrocarbon samples. Both the three-dimensional model results and the observations imply an average characteristic lifetime for dilution with background air roughly equivalent to the photochemical lifetime of butane for the western Pacific lower troposphere. Moreover, the dominance of OH as the primary photochemical oxidant downwind of anthropogenic source regions can be inferred from correlations between the highly reactive alkane ratios. By incorporating back-trajectory information within the three-dimensional model analysis, a correspondence between time and a particular hydrocarbon or hydrocarbon ratio can be determined, and the influence of atmospheric mixing or photochemistry can be quantified. Results of the three-dimensional model study are compared and applied to the PEM-West A hydrocarbon dataset, yielding a practical methodology for determining average OH concentrations and atmospheric mixing rates from the hydrocarbon measurements. Aircraft data taken below 2 km during wall flights east of Japan imply a diurnal average OH concentration of ˜3 × 106 cm-3. The characteristic time for dilution with background air is estimated to be ˜2.5 days for the two study areas examined in this work.

A new release of the mean orbital motion theory, and a new tool provided by CNES for long term analysis of disposal orbits and re-entry predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deleflie, Florent; Wailliez, Sébastien; Portmann, Christophe; Gilles, M.; Vienne, Alain; Berthier, J.; Valk, St; Hautesserres, Denis; Martin, Thierry; Fraysse, Hubert

To perform an orbit modelling accurate enough to provide a good estimate of the lifetime of a satellite, or to ensure the stability of a disposal orbit through centuries, we built a new orbit propagator based on the theory of mean orbital motion. It is named SECS-SD2 , for Simplified and Extended CODIOR Software -Space Debris Dedicated . The CODIOR software propagates numerically averaged equations of motion, with a typical integration step size on the order of a few hours, and was originally written in classical orbital elements. The so-called Space Debris -dedicated version is written in orbital elements suitable for orbits with small eccentricities and inclinations, so as to characterize the main dynamic properties of the motion within the LEO, MEO, and GEO regions. The orbital modelling accounts for the very first terms of the geopotential, the perturbations induced by the luni-solar attraction, the solar radiation pressure, and the atmospheric drag (using classical models). The new software was designed so as to ensure short computation times, even over periods of decades or centuries. This paper aims first at describing and validating the main functionalities of the software: we explain how the simplified averaged equations of motion were built, we show how we get sim-plified luni-solar ephemerides without using any huge file for orbit propagations over centuries, and we show how we averaged and simulated the solar flux. We show as well how we expressed short periodic terms to be added to the mean equations of motion, in order to get orbital ele-ments comparable to those deduced from the classical numerical integration of the oscultating equations of motion. The second part of the paper sheds light on some dynamical properties of space debris flying in the LEO and GEO regions, which were obtained from the new software. Knowing that each satellite in the LEO region is now supposed to re-enter the atmosphere within a period of 25 years, we estimated in various dynamical configurations the lifetime of LEO objects depending on their initial conditions of motion, on the solar flux models applied through decades, and on the atmospheric density models and also the satellite area-to-mass ratio. In the GEO region, we investigated the dynamical reasons that can cause space debris re-entering the GEO-protected region after the passivation of a disposal spacecraft.

Epithalon decelerates aging and suppresses development of breast adenocarcinomas in transgenic her-2/neu mice.

PubMed

Anisimov, V N; Khavinson, V Kh; Alimova, I N; Semchenko, A V; Yashin, A I

2002-08-01

Female transgenic FVB/N mice carrying the breast cancer gene HER-2/neu received epithalon (Ala-Glu-Asp-Gly) in a dose of 1 mg subcutaneously 5 times a week to from the 2nd month of life to death. Epithalon prolonged the average and maximum lifetimes of mice by 13.5 (p<0.05) and 13.9%, respectively. The peptide prolonged the average lifetime of animals without neoplasms (by 34.2%, p<0.05). Epithalon decelerated the development of age-related disturbances in reproductive activity and suppressed the formation of neoplasms. The peptide decreased the incidence of breast adenocarcinomas, lungs metastases (by 1.6 times, p<0.05), and multiple tumors (by 2 times). Epithalon 3.7-fold increased the number of mice without breast tumors (p<0.05), while the number of animals with 6 or more breast tumors decreased by 3 times (p<0.05). Epithalon prolonged the lifetime of mice with breast tumors by 1.4 times (p<0.05). These results indicate that Epithalon possesses geroprotective activity and inhibits breast carcinogenesis in transgenic mice, which is probably related to suppression of HER-2/neu expression.

Occupational exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields and brain tumour risks in the INTEROCC study

PubMed Central

Turner, Michelle C; Benke, Geza; Bowman, Joseph D; Figuerola, Jordi; Fleming, Sarah; Hours, Martine; Kincl, Laurel; Krewski, Daniel; McLean, Dave; Parent, Marie-Elise; Richardson, Lesley; Sadetzki, Siegal; Schlaefer, Klaus; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Schüz, Joachim; Siemiatycki, Jack; van Tongeren, Martie; Cardis, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

Background Occupational exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF) is a suspected risk factor for brain tumours, however the literature is inconsistent. Few studies have assessed whether ELF in different time windows of exposure may be associated with specific histologic types of brain tumours. This study examines the association between ELF and brain tumours in the large-scale INTEROCC study. Methods Cases of adult primary glioma and meningioma were recruited in seven countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, New Zealand, United Kingdom) between 2000 and 2004. Estimates of mean workday ELF exposure based on a job exposure matrix assigned. Estimates of cumulative exposure, average exposure, maximum exposure, and exposure duration were calculated for the lifetime, and 1–4, 5–9, and 10+ years prior to the diagnosis/reference date. Results There were 3,761 included brain tumour cases (1,939 glioma, 1,822 meningioma) and 5,404 population controls. There was no association between lifetime cumulative ELF exposure and glioma or meningioma risk. However, there were positive associations between cumulative ELF 1–4 years prior to the diagnosis/reference date and glioma (odds ratio (OR) ≥ 90th percentile vs < 25th percentile = 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36–2.07, p < 0.0001 linear trend), and, somewhat weaker associations with meningioma (OR ≥ 90th percentile vs < 25th percentile = 1.23, 95% CI 0.97–1.57, p = 0.02 linear trend). Conclusions Results showed positive associations between ELF in the recent past and glioma. Impact Occupational ELF exposure may play a role in the later stages (promotion and progression) of brain tumourigenesis. PMID:24935666

Lung Cancer Risk from Radon in Marcellus Shale Gas in Northeast U.S. Homes.

PubMed

Mitchell, Austin L; Griffin, W Michael; Casman, Elizabeth A

2016-11-01

The amount of radon in natural gas varies with its source. Little has been published about the radon from shale gas to date, making estimates of its impact on radon-induced lung cancer speculative. We measured radon in natural gas pipelines carrying gas from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Radon concentrations ranged from 1,520 to 2,750 Bq/m 3 (41-74 pCi/L), and the throughput-weighted average was 1,983 Bq/m 3 (54 pCi/L). Potential radon exposure due to the use of Marcellus Shale gas for cooking and space heating using vent-free heaters or gas ranges in northeastern U.S. homes and apartments was assessed. Though the measured radon concentrations are higher than what has been previously reported, it is unlikely that exposure from natural gas cooking would exceed 1.2 Bq/m 3 (<1% of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's action level). Using worst-case assumptions, we estimate the excess lifetime (70 years) lung cancer risk associated with cooking to be 1.8×10 -4 (interval spanning 95% of simulation results: 8.5×10 -5 , 3.4×10 -4 ). The risk profile for supplemental heating with unvented gas appliances is similar. Individuals using unvented gas appliances to provide primary heating may face lifetime risks as high as 3.9×10 -3 . Under current housing stock and gas consumption assumptions, expected levels of residential radon exposure due to unvented combustion of Marcellus Shale natural gas in the Northeast United States do not result in a detectable change in the lung cancer death rates. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Burden of illness of multiple sclerosis: Part I: Cost of illness. The Canadian Burden of Illness Study Group.

PubMed

1998-02-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common neurologic disease in young and middle-aged adults affecting approximately 35,000 Canadians. The objectives of this study were to estimate the annual and lifetime costs of MS from the Canadian societal perspective. Patients were consecutively recruited by neurologists in 14 MS outpatient clinics across Canada. They were classified according to the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) into three groups: mild (EDSS < or = 2.5), moderate (EDSS = 3.0-6.0) and severe (EDSS > or = 6.5). Sociodemographic, clinical and resource utilization data were collected retrospectively for the three months prior to patient inclusion. Costing of resources was performed from Ministry of Health, private third party payers, patient and societal perspectives. Average Canadian costs ($CDN 1995) were valued from available provincial data. A total of 198 patients were included in the analysis (mild: n = 62, moderate: n = 68 and severe: n = 68). Costs increased with increasing EDSS scores, from all perspectives. The annualized societal costs per patient were $CDN14,523, $CDN21,698 and $CDN37,024 for the mild, moderate and severe groups, respectively. In all severity groups, most of the financial burden is borne by patients, from 74% to 88%. Indirect costs, namely lost daily activity/leisure time and lost productivity, were the major societal cost drivers. The lifetime cost of MS, including patient institutionalization, was estimated to be $CDN1,608,000 per patient. In Canada, MS is associated with enormous direct and indirect costs. Patients carry most of the economic burden of this disease. The results of this burden of illness study provide a basis for cost-effectiveness analyses of new therapeutic interventions for MS.

Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessments of arsenic contamination in drinking water of Ardabil city in the Northwest of Iran.

PubMed

Sadeghi, Fatemeh; Nasseri, Simin; Yunesian, Masud; Nabizadeh, Ramin; Mosaferi, Mohammad; Mesdaghinia, Alireza

2018-04-16

Based on the environmental health assessment framework of the United State Environmental Protection Agency, a quantitative health risk assessment of arsenic in contaminated drinking water in a city in the northwest of Iran has been carried out. In the exposure assessment step, arsenic concentrations in drinking water were determined during four seasons. In addition, the water ingestion rate for different age groups in this region was determined. The concentration of arsenic in 163 collected samples from different locations during four seasons ranged from 0 to 99 μg L -1 . Furthermore, a high percentage of the samples manifested higher levels than the permissible limit of 10 μg L -1 . The total daily water intake rates of four age groups 1 to <2 (group 1), 2 to <6 (group 2), 6 to <16 (group 3), and ≥16 years (group 4) were estimated as 0.86, 1.49, 2.00, and 2.33 L day -1 , respectively. Calculating the lifetime average daily dose of arsenic indicated that adults (group 4) had the highest and children (group 1) had the lowest daily intake of arsenic in their entire life. The results of risk characteristic showed that the order of excess lifetime cancer risk via arsenic exposure in the four groups was 4 > 3 > 2 > 1. The estimated risks for all age groups were higher than the acceptable range (1E-6 to 1E-4). The hazard quotient values for all of the classified groups were lower than the recommended limit values (<1), but it cannot be concluded that potential non-carcinogenicity risks are non-existent since the possible exposure to arsenic via food and skin may also pose the risk.

Risk of a second cancer from scattered radiation in acoustic neuroma treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyunho; Sung, Jiwon; Shin, Dongoh; Park, Sungho; Chung, Weon Kuu; Jahng, Geon-Ho; Kim, Dong Wook

2014-06-01

The present study aimed to compare the risk of a secondary cancer from scattered and leakage doses in patients receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Four acoustic neuroma patients were treated with IMRT, VMAT, or SRS. Their excess relative risk (ERR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of a secondary cancer were estimated using the corresponding secondary doses measured at various organs by using radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeters (RPLGD) placed inside a humanoid phantom. When a prescription dose was delivered in the planning target volume of the 4 patients, the average organ equivalent doses (OED) at the thyroid, lung, liver, bowel, bladder, prostate (or ovary), and rectum were 14.6, 1.7, 0.9, 0.8, 0.6, 0.6, and 0.6 cGy, respectively, for IMRT whereas they were 19.1, 1.8, 2.0, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, and 0.4 cGy, respectively, for VMAT, and 22.8, 4.6, 1.4, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5, and 0.5 cGy, respectively, for SRS. The OED decreased as the distance from the primary beam increased. The thyroid received the highest OED compared to other organs. A lifetime attributable risk evaluation estimated that more than 0.03% of acoustic neuroma (AN) patients would get radiation-induced cancer within 20 years of receiving radiation therapy. The organ with the highest radiation-induced cancer risk after radiation treatment for AN was the thyroid. We found that the LAR could be increased by the transmitted dose from the primary beam. No modality-specific difference in radiation-induced cancer risk was observed in our study.

Inorganic arsenic in Chinese food and its cancer risk.

PubMed

Li, Gang; Sun, Guo-Xin; Williams, Paul N; Nunes, Luis; Zhu, Yong-Guan

2011-10-01

Even moderate arsenic exposure may lead to health problems, and thus quantifying inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure from food for different population groups in China is essential. By analyzing the data from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey (CNNHS) and collecting reported values of iAs in major food groups, we developed a framework of calculating average iAs daily intake for different regions of China. Based on this framework, cancer risks from iAs in food was deterministically and probabilistically quantified. The article presents estimates for health risk due to the ingestion of food products contaminated with arsenic. Both per individual and for total population estimates were obtained. For the total population, daily iAs intake is around 42 μg day(-1), and rice is the largest contributor of total iAs intake accounting for about 60%. Incremental lifetime cancer risk from food iAs intake is 106 per 100,000 for adult individuals and the median population cancer risk is 177 per 100,000 varying between regions. Population in the Southern region has a higher cancer risk than that in the Northern region and the total population. Sensitive analysis indicated that cancer slope factor, ingestion rates of rice, aquatic products and iAs concentration in rice were the most relevant variables in the model, as indicated by their higher contribution to variance of the incremental lifetime cancer risk. We conclude that rice may be the largest contributor of iAs through food route for the Chinese people. The population from the South has greater cancer risk than that from the North and the whole population. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessments of Hollow Cathode Wear in the Xenon Ion Propulsion System (XIPs(c)) by Numerical Analyses and Wear Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikellides, Ioannis G.; Katz, Ira; Goebel, Dan M.; Polk, James E.

2008-01-01

The standard approach presently followed by NASA to qualify electric propulsion for the required mission throughput has been based largely on life tests, which can be costly and time consuming. Revised electric propulsion lifequalification approaches are being formulated that combine analytical and/or computational methods with (shorter-duration) wear tests. As a model case, a wear test is being performed at JPL to assess the lifetime of the discharge hollow cathode in the Xenon Ion Propulsion System (XIPS(c)), a 25-cm ion engine developed by L-3 Communications Electron Technologies, Inc. for commercial applications. Wear and plasma data accumulated throughout this life-assessment program are being used to validate the existing 2-D hollow cathode code OrCa2D. We find that the OrCa2D steady-state solution predicts very well the time-averaged plasma data and the keeper voltage after 5500 hrs of operation in high-power mode. When the wave motion that occurs naturally in these devices is accounted for, based on an estimate of the maximum wave amplitude, the molybdenum-keeper erosion profile observed in the XIPS(c) discharge cathode is also reproduced within a factor of two of the observation. When the same model is applied to predict the erosion of a tantalum keeper we find that erosion is reduced by more than two orders of magnitude compared to the molybdenum keeper due the significantly lower sputtering yield of tantalum. A tantalum keeper would therefore allow keeper lifetimes that greatly exceed the present requirements for deep-space robotic missions considered by NASA. Moreover, such large reduction of the erosion renders the largest uncertainties in the models, which are associated with the wave amplitude estimates and the electron transport model, negligible.

Studies of Isolated and Non-isolated Photospheric Bright Points in an Active Region Observed by the New Vacuum Solar Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yanxiao; Xiang, Yongyuan; Erdélyi, Robertus; Liu, Zhong; Li, Dong; Ning, Zongjun; Bi, Yi; Wu, Ning; Lin, Jun

2018-03-01

Properties of photospheric bright points (BPs) near an active region have been studied in TiO λ 7058 Å images observed by the New Vacuum Solar Telescope of the Yunnan Observatories. We developed a novel recognition method that was used to identify and track 2010 BPs. The observed evolving BPs are classified into isolated (individual) and non-isolated (where multiple BPs are observed to display splitting and merging behaviors) sets. About 35.1% of BPs are non-isolated. For both isolated and non-isolated BPs, the brightness varies from 0.8 to 1.3 times the average background intensity and follows a Gaussian distribution. The lifetimes of BPs follow a log-normal distribution, with characteristic lifetimes of (267 ± 140) s and (421 ± 255) s, respectively. Their size also follows log-normal distribution, with an average size of about (2.15 ± 0.74) × 104 km2 and (3.00 ± 1.31) × 104 km2 for area, and (163 ± 27) km and (191 ± 40) km for diameter, respectively. Our results indicate that regions with strong background magnetic field have higher BP number density and higher BP area coverage than regions with weak background field. Apparently, the brightness/size of BPs does not depend on the background field. Lifetimes in regions with strong background magnetic field are shorter than those in regions with weak background field, on average.

Cost-effectiveness of rosuvastatin 20 mg for the prevention of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: a Swedish economic evaluation of the JUPITER trial.

PubMed

Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Olsson, Anders G; Jensen, Marie M; Gandhi, Sanjay K; Paulsson, Thomas

2012-01-01

This study estimated the long-term health outcomes, healthcare costs, and cost-effectiveness of rosuvastatin 20 mg therapy in primary prevention of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a Swedish population. Based on data from the JUPITER trial, long-term CVD outcomes with rosuvastatin vs no active treatment were estimated for patients with an elevated baseline CVD risk (Framingham CVD score >20%, sub-population of JUPITER population) and for a population similar to the total JUPITER population. Using a decision-analytic model, trial CVD event rates were combined with epidemiological and cost data specific for Sweden. First and subsequent CVD events and death were estimated over a lifetime perspective. The observed relative risk reduction was extrapolated beyond the trial duration. Incremental effectiveness was measured as life-years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Treating 100,000 patients with rosuvastatin 20 mg was estimated to avoid 14,692 CVD events over the lifetime (8021 non-fatal MIs, 3228 non-fatal strokes, and 4924 CVD deaths) compared to placebo. This translated into an estimated gain of 42,122 QALYs and 36,865 total life years (LYG). Rosuvastatin was both more effective and less costly over a lifetime perspective, and rosuvastatin is subsequently a dominant alternative compared to no treatment in the assessed population. Using the overall JUPITER population, rosuvastatin was dominant for the lifetime horizon. In the sensitivity analysis, rosuvastatin was the dominant treatment strategy over a 20-year time horizon, and cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (cost per QALY) of SEK 1783 over a 10-year time horizon. Some model inputs were derived from literature or other data sources, but uncertainty was controlled by sensitivity analyses. Results indicate that rosuvastatin 20 mg treatment is a cost-effective option vs no-treatment in patients with Framingham CVD risk >20% in Sweden and might even be cost saving if taking a long-term perspective.

The Economics of Academic Advancement Within Surgery.

PubMed

Baimas-George, Maria; Fleischer, Brian; Korndorffer, James R; Slakey, Douglas; DuCoin, Christopher

The success of an academic surgeon's career is often viewed as directly related to academic appointment; therefore, the sequence of promotion is a demanding, rigorous process. This paper seeks to define the financial implication of academic advancement across different surgical subspecialties. Data was collected from the Association of American Medical College's 2015 report of average annual salaries. Assumptions included 30 years of practice, 5 years as assistant professor, and 10 years as associate professor before advancement. The base formula used was: (average annual salary) × (years of practice [30 years - fellowship/research years]) + ($50,000 × years of fellowship/research) = total adjusted lifetime salary income. There was a significant increase in lifetime salary income with advancement from assistant to associate professor in all subspecialties when compared to an increase from associate to full professor. The greatest increase in income from assistant to associate professor was seen in transplant and cardiothoracic surgery (35% and 27%, respectively). Trauma surgery and surgical oncology had the smallest increases of 8% and 9%, respectively. With advancement to full professor, the increase in lifetime salary income was significantly less across all subspecialties, ranging from 1% in plastic surgery to 8% in pediatric surgery. When analyzing the economics of career advancement in academic surgery, there is a substantial financial benefit in lifetime income to becoming an associate professor in all fields; whereas, advancement to full professor is associated with a drastically reduced economic benefit. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Informal care for stroke survivors: results from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS).

PubMed

Dewey, H M; Thrift, A G; Mihalopoulos, C; Carter, R; Macdonell, R A L; McNeil, J J; Donnan, G A

2002-04-01

Informal caregivers play an important role in the lives of stroke patients, but the cost of providing this care has not been estimated. The purpose of this study was to determine the nature and amount of informal care provided to stroke patients and to estimate the economic cost of that care. The primary caregivers of stroke patients registered in the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS) were interviewed at 3, 6, and 12 months after stroke, and the nature and amount of informal care provided were documented. The opportunity and replacement costs of informal care for all first-ever-in-a-lifetime strokes (excluding subarachnoid hemorrhages) that occurred in 1997 in Australia were estimated. Among 3-month stroke survivors, 74% required assistance with activities of daily living and received informal care from family or friends. Two thirds of primary caregivers were women, and most primary caregivers (>90%) provided care during family or leisure time. Total first-year caregiver time costs for all first-ever-in-a-lifetime strokes were estimated to be A$21.7 million (opportunity cost approach) or A$42.5 million (replacement cost approach), and the present values of lifetime caregiver time costs were estimated to be A$171.4 million (opportunity cost approach) or A$331.8 million (replacement cost approach). Informal care for stroke survivors represents a significant hidden cost to Australian society. Because our community is rapidly aging, this informal care burden may increase significantly in the future.

Long-term health and medical cost impact of smoking prevention in adolescence.

PubMed

Wang, Li Yan; Michael, Shannon L

2015-02-01

To estimate smoking progression probabilities from adolescence to young adulthood and to estimate long-term health and medical cost impacts of preventing smoking in today's adolescents. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we first estimated smoking progression probabilities from adolescence to young adulthood. Then, using the predicted probabilities, we estimated the number of adolescents who were prevented from becoming adult daily smokers as a result of a hypothetical 1 percentage point reduction in the prevalence of ever smoking in today's adolescents. We further estimated lifetime medical costs saved and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained as a result of preventing adolescents from becoming adult daily smokers. All costs were in 2010 dollars. Compared with never smokers, those who had tried smoking at baseline had higher probabilities of becoming current or former daily smokers at follow-up regardless of baseline grade or sex. A hypothetical 1 percentage point reduction in the prevalence of ever smoking in 24.5 million students in 7th-12th grades today could prevent 35,962 individuals from becoming a former daily smoker and 44,318 individuals from becoming a current daily smoker at ages 24-32 years. As a result, lifetime medical care costs are estimated to decrease by $1.2 billion and lifetime QALYs is estimated to increase by 98,590. Effective smoking prevention programs for adolescents go beyond reducing smoking prevalence in adolescence; they also reduce daily smokers in young adulthood, increase QALYs, and reduce medical costs substantially in later life. This finding indicates the importance of continued investment in effective youth smoking prevention programs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evaluating health risks from occupational exposure to pesticides and the regulatory response.

PubMed Central

Woodruff, T J; Kyle, A D; Bois, F Y

1994-01-01

In this study, we used measurements of occupational exposures to pesticides in agriculture to evaluate health risks and analyzed how the federal regulatory program is addressing these risks. Dose estimates developed by the State of California from measured occupational exposures to 41 pesticides were compared to standard indices of acute toxicity (LD50) and chronic effects (reference dose). Lifetime cancer risks were estimated using cancer potencies. Estimated absorbed daily doses for mixers, loaders, and applicators of pesticides ranged from less than 0.0001% to 48% of the estimated human LD50 values, and doses for 10 of 40 pesticides exceeded 1% of the estimated human LD50 values. Estimated lifetime absorbed daily doses ranged from 0.1% to 114,000% of the reference doses developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and doses for 13 of 25 pesticides were above them. Lifetime cancer risks ranged from 1 per million to 1700 per million, and estimates for 12 of 13 pesticides were above 1 per million. Similar results were obtained for field workers and flaggers. For the pesticides examined, exposures pose greater risks of chronic effects than acute effects. Exposure reduction measures, including use of closed mixing systems and personal protective equipment, significantly reduced exposures. Proposed regulations rely primarily on requirements for personal protective equipment and use restrictions to protect workers. Chronic health risks are not considered in setting these requirements. Reviews of pesticides by the federal pesticide regulatory program have had little effect on occupational risks. Policy strategies that offer immediate protection for workers and that are not dependent on extensive review of individual pesticides should be pursued. Images Figure 1. PMID:7713022

Macroeconomic costs of the unmet burden of surgical disease in Sierra Leone: a retrospective economic analysis.

PubMed

Grimes, Caris E; Quaife, Matthew; Kamara, Thaim B; Lavy, Christopher B D; Leather, Andy J M; Bolkan, Håkon A

2018-03-14

The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery estimated that low/middle-income countries will lose an estimated cumulative loss of US$12.3 trillion from gross domestic product (GDP) due to the unmet burden of surgical disease. However, no country-specific data currently exist. We aimed to estimate the costs to the Sierra Leone economy from death and disability which may have been averted by surgical care. We used estimates of total, met and unmet need from two main sources-a cluster randomised, cross-sectional, countrywide survey and a retrospective, nationwide study on surgery in Sierra Leone. We calculated estimated disability-adjusted life years from morbidity and mortality for the estimated unmet burden and modelled the likely economic impact using three different methods-gross national income per capita, lifetime earnings foregone and value of a statistical life. In 2012, estimated, discounted lifetime losses to the Sierra Leone economy from the unmet burden of surgical disease was between US$1.1 and US$3.8 billion, depending on the economic method used. These lifetime losses equate to between 23% and 100% of the annual GDP for Sierra Leone. 80% of economic losses were due to mortality. The incremental losses averted by scale up of surgical provision to the Lancet Commission target of 80% were calculated to be between US$360 million and US$2.9 billion. There is a large economic loss from the unmet need for surgical care in Sierra Leone. There is an immediate need for massive investment to counteract ongoing economic losses. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Measurement of the B 0 s lifetime in the flavor-specific decay channel B 0 s → D - sμ +νX

DOE PAGES

Abazov, Victor Mukhamedovich

2015-02-09

We present an updated measurement of the B 0 s lifetime using the semileptonic decays B 0 s → D - sμ +νX, with D – s → π – and Φ → K +K – (and the charge conjugate process). This measurement uses the full Tevatron Run II sample of proton-antiproton collisions at √s = 1.96 TeV, comprising an integrated luminosity of 10.4 fb –1. We find a flavor-specific lifetime τ fs(B 0 s) = 1.479 ± 0.010(stat) ± 0.021(syst) ps. This technique is also used to determine the B 0 lifetime using the analogous B 0 → Dmore » –μ +νX decay with D – → Φπ – and Φ → K +K –, yielding τ(B 0) = 1.534 ± 0.019(stat) ± 0.021(syst) ps. Both measurements are consistent with the current world averages, and the B 0 s lifetime measurement is one of the most precise to date. As a result, taking advantage of the cancellation of systematic uncertainties, we determine the lifetime ratio τ fs(B 0 s)/τ(B 0) = 0.964 ± 0.013(stat) ± 0.007(syst).« less

Manganese nodule resources in the northeastern equatorial Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKelvey, V.E.; Wright, Nancy A.; Rowland, Robert W.

1979-01-01

Recent publication of maps at scale 1:1,000,000 of the northeastern equatorial Pacific region showing publicly available information on the nickel plus copper content of manganese nodules has made it possible to outline the prime area between the Clarion and Clipperton fracture zones which has been the focus of several recent scientific and commercial studies. The area, defined as that in which the nodules contain more than 1.8 percent nickel plus copper, is about 2o5 million km2. The available evidence suggests that about half of it contains nodules in concentration (reported in wet weight units) greater than 5 kg/m2 and averaging 11.9 kg/m2. If we assume that 20 percent of the nodules in this area of 1.25 million km2 are recoverable, its potential recoverable resources are about 2.1 billion dry metric tons of nodules averaging about 25 percent Mn, 1.3 percent Ni, 1.0 percent Cu, 0.22 percent Co, and 0.05 percent Mo—enough to support about 27 mining operations each producing an average of 75 million metric tons of nodules over their lifetimes. Estimates based on other plausible assumptions would be higher or lower, but of the same order of magnitude. Thus it seems probable that the magnitude of the potentially recoverable nodule resources of the Clarion-Clipperton prime area—the most promising now known—is at most in the range of several tens of the average-size operations postulated.

Retrieving Baseflow from SWOT Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baratelli, F.; Flipo, N.; Biancamaria, S.; Rivière, A.

2017-12-01

The quantification of aquifer contribution to river discharge is of primary importance to evaluate the impact of climatic and anthropogenic stresses on the availability of water resources. Several baseflow estimation methods require river discharge measurements, which can be difficult to obtain at high spatio-temporal resolution for large scale basins. The SWOT satellite mission will provide discharge estimations for large rivers (50 - 100 m wide) even in remote basins. The frequency of these estimations depends on the position and ranges from zero to four values in the 21-days satellite cycle. This work aims at answering the following question: can baseflow be estimated from SWOT observations during the mission lifetime? An algorithm based on hydrograph separation by Chapman's filter was developed to automatically estimate the baseflow in a river network at regional or larger scale (> 10000 km2). The algorithm was first applied using the discharge time series simulated at daily time step by a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model to obtain the reference baseflow estimations. The same algorithm is then forced with discharge time series sampled at SWOT observation frequency. The methodology was applied to the Seine River basin (65000 km2, France). The results show that the average baseflow is estimated with good accuracy for all the reaches which are observed at least once per cycle (relative bias less than 4%). The time evolution of baseflow is also rather well retrieved, with a Nash coefficient which is more than 0.7 for 94% of the network length. This work provides new potential for the SWOT mission in terms of global hydrological analysis.

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Lifetime risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism and eventual progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Ligthart, Symen; van Herpt, Thijs T W; Leening, Maarten J G; Kavousi, Maryam; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H C; van Hoek, Mandy; Sijbrands, Eric J G; Franco, Oscar H; Dehghan, Abbas

2016-01-01

Data are scarce for the lifetime risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism, including prediabetes, as are data for the risk of eventual progression from prediabetes to diabetes and for initiation of insulin treatment in previously untreated patients with diabetes. We aimed to calculate the lifetime risk of the full range of glucose impairments, from normoglycaemia to prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and eventual insulin use. In this prospective population-based cohort analysis, we used data from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We identified diagnostic events by use of general practitioners' records, hospital discharge letters, pharmacy dispensing data, and serum fasting glucose measurements taken at the study centre (Rotterdam, Netherlands) visits. Normoglycaemia, prediabetes, and diabetes were defined on the basis of WHO criteria for fasting glucose (normoglycaemia: ≤6·0 mmol/L; prediabetes: >6·0 mmol/L and <7·0 mmol/L; and diabetes ≥7·0 mmol/L or use of glucose-lowering drug). We calculated lifetime risk using a modified version of survival analysis adjusted for the competing risk of death. We also estimated the lifetime risk of progression from prediabetes to overt diabetes and from diabetes free of insulin treatment to insulin use. Additionally, we calculated years lived with healthy glucose metabolism. We used data from 10 050 participants from the Rotterdam Study. During a follow-up of up to 14·7 years (between April 1, 1997, and Jan 1, 2012), 1148 participants developed prediabetes, 828 developed diabetes, and 237 started insulin treatment. At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk was 48·7% (95% CI 46·2-51·3) for prediabetes, 31·3% (29·3-33·3) for diabetes, and 9·1% (7·8-10·3) for insulin use. In individuals aged 45 years, the lifetime risk to progress from prediabetes to diabetes was 74·0% (95% CI 67·6-80·5), and 49·1% (38·2-60·0) of the individuals with overt diabetes at this age started insulin treatment. The lifetime risks attenuated with advancing age, but increased with increasing BMI and waist circumference. On average, individuals with severe obesity lived 10 fewer years without glucose impairment compared with normal-weight individuals. Impaired glucose metabolism is a substantial burden on population health, and our findings emphasise the need for more effective prevention strategies, which should be implemented as soon in a person's life as possible. The substantial lifetime risk of prediabetes and diabetes in lean individuals also supports risk factor control in non-obese individuals. Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research; Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development; Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; Netherlands Genomics Initiative; Netherlands Ministry of Education, Culture and Science; Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports; European Commission; and Municipality of Rotterdam. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Life-Year Loss and Lifetime Costs for Different Stages of Colon Adenocarcinoma in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chen, Po-Chuan; Lee, Jenq-Chang; Wang, Jung-Der

2015-01-01

Backgrounds and aims Life-expectancy of colon cancer patients cannot be accurately answered due to the lack of both large datasets and long-term follow-ups, which impedes accurate estimation of lifetime cost to treat colon cancer patients. In this study, we applied a method to estimate life-expectancy of colon cancer patients in Taiwan and calculate the lifetime costs by different stages and age groups. Methods A total of 17,526 cases with pathologically verified colon adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2009 were extracted from Taiwan Cancer Registry database for analysis. All patients were followed-up until the end of 2011. Life-expectancy, expected-years-of-life-lost and lifetime costs were estimated, using a semi-parametric survival extrapolation method and borrowing information from life tables of vital statistics. Results Patients with more advanced stages of colon cancer were generally younger and less co-morbid with major chronic diseases than those with stages I and II. The LE of stage I was not significantly different from that of the age- and sex-matched general population, whereas those of stages II, III, and IV colon cancer patients after diagnosis were 16.57±0.07, 13.35±0.07, and 4.05±0.05 years, respectively; the corresponding expected-years-of-life-lost were 1.28±0.07, 5.93±0.07 and 16.42±0.06 years, significantly shorter than the general population after accounting for lead time bias. Besides, the lifetime cost of managing stage II colon cancer patients would be US $8,416±1939, 14,334±1,755, and 21,837±1,698, respectively, indicating a big saving for early diagnosis and treatment after stratification for age and sex. Conclusions Treating colon cancer at younger age and earlier stage saves more life-years and healthcare costs. Future studies are indicated to apply these quantitative results into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of screening program for colon cancers. PMID:26207912

Combining genetic and physiological data to identify predictors of lifetime reproductive success and the effect of selection on these predictors on underlying fertility traits.

PubMed

Dennis, N A; Stachowicz, K; Visser, B; Hely, F S; Berg, D K; Friggens, N C; Amer, P R; Meier, S; Burke, C R

2018-04-01

Fertility of the dairy cow relies on complex interactions between genetics, physiology, and management. Mathematical modeling can combine a range of information sources to facilitate informed predictions of cow fertility in scenarios that are difficult to evaluate empirically. We have developed a stochastic model that incorporates genetic and physiological data from more than 70 published reports on a wide range of fertility-related traits in dairy cattle. The model simulates pedigree, random mating, genetically correlated traits (in the form of breeding values for traits such as hours in estrus, estrous cycle length, age at puberty, milk yield, and so on), and interacting environmental variables. This model was used to generate a large simulated data set (200,000 cows replicated 100 times) of herd records within a seasonal dairy production system (based on an average New Zealand system). Using these simulated data, we investigated the genetic component of lifetime reproductive success (LRS), which, in reality, would be impractical to assess empirically. We defined LRS as the total number of times, during her lifetime, a cow calved within the first 42 d of the calving season. Sire estimated breeding values for LRS and other traits were calculated using simulated daughter records. Daughter pregnancy rate in the first lactation (PD_1) was the strongest single predictor of a sire's genetic merit for LRS (R 2 = 0.81). A simple predictive model containing PD_1, calving date for the second season and calving rate in the first season provided a good estimate of sire LRS (R 2 = 0.97). Daughters from sires with extremely high (n = 99,995 daughters, sire LRS = +0.70) or low (n = 99,635 daughters, sire LRS = -0.73) LRS estimated breeding values were compared over a single generation. Of the 14 underlying component traits of fertility, 12 were divergent between the 2 lines. This suggests that genetic variation in female fertility has a complex and multifactorial genetic basis. When simulated phenotypes were compared, daughters of the high LRS sires (HiFERT) reached puberty 44.5 d younger and calved ∼14 d younger at each parity than daughters from low LRS sires (LoFERT). Despite having a much lower genetic potential for milk production (-400 L/lactation) than LoFERT cows, HiFERT cows produced 33% more milk over their lifetime due to additional lactations before culling. In summary, this simulation model suggests that LRS contributes substantially to cow productivity, and novel selection criteria would facilitate a more accurate prediction at a younger age. The Authors. Published by FASS Inc. and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Lifetime Measurement in the Yrast Band of 119I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobach, Yu. N.; Pasternak, A. A.; Srebrny, J.; Droste, Ch.; Hagemann, G. B.; Juutinen, S.; Morek, T.; Piiparinen, M.; Podsvirova, E. O.; Toermaenen, S.; Starosta, K.; Virtanen, A.; Wasilewski, A. A.

1999-05-01

The lifetime of levels in the yrast band of 119I were measured by DSAM and RDM using the 109Ag (13C,3n) reaction at E=54 MeV. The detailed description of data analysis including the stopping power determination and estimation of side feeding time is given. A modified method of RDM data analysis --- Recoil Distance Doppler Shape Attenuation (RDDSA) is used.

An Evaluation of C1-C3 Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) Metrics: Lifetimes, Ozone Depletion Potentials, Radiative Efficiencies, Global Warming and Global Temperature Potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkholder, J. B.; Papanastasiou, D. K.; Marshall, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) have been used as chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) substitutes in a number of applications, e.g. refrigerator and air-conditioning systems. Although HCFCs have lower ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs) compared to CFCs, they are potent greenhouse gases. The twenty-eighth meeting of the parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Kigali, 2016) included a list of 274 HCFCs to be controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, from this list, only 15 of the HCFCs have values for their atmospheric lifetime, ODP, global warming potential (GWP), and global temperature potential (GTP) that are based on fundamental experimental studies, while 48 are registered compounds. In this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the atmospheric lifetimes, ODPs, radiative efficiencies (REs), GWPs, and GTPs for all 274 HCFCs to be included in the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated based on HCFC reactivity with OH radicals and O(1D), as well as their removal by UV photolysis using structure activity relationships and reactivity trends. ODP values are based on the semi-empirical approach described in the WMO/UNEP ozone assessment. Radiative efficiencies were estimated, based on infrared spectra calculated using theoretical electronic structure methods (Gaussian 09). GWPs and GTPs were calculated relative to CO2 using our estimated atmospheric lifetimes and REs. The details of the methodology will be discussed as well as the associated uncertainties. This study has provided a consistent set of atmospheric metrics for a wide range of HCFCs that support future policy decisions. More accurate metrics for a specific HCFC, if desired, would require fundamental laboratory studies to better define the OH reactivity and infrared absorption spectrum of the compound of interest. Overall, HCFCs within the same family (isomers) show a large ODP, GWP, GTP dependence on the molecular geometry of the isomers. The atmospheric lifetime of HCFCs is predominantly determined by reaction with the OH radical, with photolysis making only a minor contribution for long-lived highly chlorinated compounds. RE values are within the 0.05 and 0.3 W m-2 ppb-1 range with highly fluorinated HCFCs having the largest RE values.

Measuring the Value of Externalities from Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapman, Bruce; Lounkaew, Kiatanantha

2015-01-01

This paper takes an innovative approach. We have used the idea of converting international evidence of the size of higher education externalities as a proportion of GDP into Australian-specific dollar equivalents and added these estimates to estimates of lifetime fiscal returns to graduates. This allows us to estimate the expected spillovers over…

Toward a new spacecraft optimal design lifetime? Impact of marginal cost of durability and reduced launch price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snelgrove, Kailah B.; Saleh, Joseph Homer

2016-10-01

The average design lifetime of satellites continues to increase, in part due to the expectation that the satellite cost per operational day decreases monotonically with increased design lifetime. In this work, we challenge this expectation by revisiting the durability choice problem for spacecraft in the face of reduced launch price and under various cost of durability models. We first provide a brief overview of the economic thought on durability and highlight its limitations as they pertain to our problem (e.g., the assumption of zero marginal cost of durability). We then investigate the merging influence of spacecraft cost of durability and launch price, and we identify conditions that give rise cost-optimal design lifetimes that are shorter than the longest lifetime technically achievable. For example, we find that high costs of durability favor short design lifetimes, and that under these conditions the optimal choice is relatively robust to reduction in launch prices. By contrast, lower costs of durability favor longer design lifetimes, and the optimal choice is highly sensitive to reduction in launch price. In both cases, reduction in launch prices translates into reduction of the optimal design lifetime. Our results identify a number of situations for which satellite operators would be better served by spacecraft with shorter design lifetimes. Beyond cost issues and repeat purchases, other implications of long design lifetime include the increased risk of technological slowdown given the lower frequency of purchases and technology refresh, and the increased risk for satellite operators that the spacecraft will be technologically obsolete before the end of its life (with the corollary of loss of value and competitive advantage). We conclude with the recommendation that, should pressure to extend spacecraft design lifetime continue, satellite manufacturers should explore opportunities to lease their spacecraft to operators, or to take a stake in the ownership of the asset on orbit.

Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

PubMed

Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

2013-06-01

The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

Relationship between the Fluorescence Lifetime of Chlorophyll 'a' and Primary Productivity within the Mississippi River Plume and Adjacent Shelf Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Callie; Miller, Richard L.; Fernandez, Salvador M.; McKee, Brent A.

2000-01-01

In situ measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence intensity have been widely used to estimate phytoplankton biomass. However, because the fluorescence quantum yield of chlorophyll a in vivo can be highly variable, measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence intensity cannot be directly correlated with phytoplankton biomass and do not provide information on the physiological state of the phytoplankton under study. Conversely, lifetime-based measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence provide a framework in which photosynthetic rates of phytoplankton can be analyzed according to phytoplankton physiology. Along with the measurement of primary production and ambient nutrient concentrations within the Mississippi River plume in the northern Gulf of Mexico, phytoplankton fluorescence lifetimes were measured using a Fluorescence Lifetime Phytoplankton Analyzer (developed under a NASA Small Business Innovative Research contract to Ciencia, Inc.). Variability of fluorescence lifetimes within the plume can be used as a background from which to interpret variations in the maximum quantum yield of photochemistry. The extent to which nutrient and effluent loading in this dynamic coastal area affect the photosynthetic performance of phytoplankton will be presented as a function of phytoplankton fluorescence lifetimes.

Study on drug costs associated with COPD prescription medicine in Denmark.

PubMed

Jakobsen, Marie; Anker, Niels; Dollerup, Jens; Poulsen, Peter Bo; Lange, Peter

2013-10-01

Spirometric studies of the general population estimate that 430 000 Danes have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD is mainly caused by smoking, and smoking cessation is the most important intervention to prevent disease progression. Cost-of-illness studies conclude that the costs associated with COPD in Denmark are significant, but costs of prescription medicine for COPD were not analysed. To analyse the societal costs associated with prescription medicine for COPD in Denmark. The study was designed as a nationwide retrospective register study of the drug costs (ATC group R03) associated with COPD in the period 2001-2010. Data were retrieved from the Prescription Database, the National Patient Register and the Centralised Civil Register. The population comprised individuals (40+ years) who had at least one prescription of selected R03 drugs and who had been either hospitalised with a COPD diagnosis or had at least one prescription for drugs primarily used for COPD. The study population comprised 166 462 individuals of which 97 916 were alive on 31 December 2010. The average annual drug costs (R03) were DKK 7842 (EUR 1055) per patient in 2010 with total costs of DKK 685 million (EUR 92 million). The average lifetime costs associated with COPD prescription medicine were estimated to be DKK 70 000-75 000 (EUR 9416-10 089) per patient (2010 prices). The costs associated with prescription medicine for COPD in Denmark are significant. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Monte Carlo based method for fluorescence tomographic imaging with lifetime multiplexing using time gates

PubMed Central

Chen, Jin; Venugopal, Vivek; Intes, Xavier

2011-01-01

Time-resolved fluorescence optical tomography allows 3-dimensional localization of multiple fluorophores based on lifetime contrast while providing a unique data set for improved resolution. However, to employ the full fluorescence time measurements, a light propagation model that accurately simulates weakly diffused and multiple scattered photons is required. In this article, we derive a computationally efficient Monte Carlo based method to compute time-gated fluorescence Jacobians for the simultaneous imaging of two fluorophores with lifetime contrast. The Monte Carlo based formulation is validated on a synthetic murine model simulating the uptake in the kidneys of two distinct fluorophores with lifetime contrast. Experimentally, the method is validated using capillaries filled with 2.5nmol of ICG and IRDye™800CW respectively embedded in a diffuse media mimicking the average optical properties of mice. Combining multiple time gates in one inverse problem allows the simultaneous reconstruction of multiple fluorophores with increased resolution and minimal crosstalk using the proposed formulation. PMID:21483610

A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-30

fixed EOS of 40 years and a fixed WACC of 3%, decreases to a minimum and then increases. The minimum of this curve gives the optimum buy size for...considered in both analyses. For a 3% WACC , as illustrated in Figure 9(a), the DES method gives an optimum buy size range of 2,923–3,191 with an average...Hence, both methods are consistent in determining the optimum lifetime/bridge buy size. To further verify this consistency, other WACC values

Posttraumatic stress disorder and intimate partner violence in a women's headache center.

PubMed

Gerber, Megan R; Fried, Lise E; Pineles, Suzanne L; Shipherd, Jillian C; Bernstein, Carolyn A

2012-01-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder has been linked to women's ill health, including headaches. Intimate partner violence, which may result in posttraumatic stress disorder, is often reported by women with headaches. Prior studies of intimate partner violence and headache have estimated lifetime but not 12-month prevalence. The researchers in this study examined the relationship between headache and posttraumatic stress disorder in a novel population, and estimated 12-month and lifetime prevalence rates of intimate partner violence. Patients were recruited from a women's headache center (n = 92) during 2006-07 and completed the Migraine Disability Assessment measure of headache severity. Posttraumatic stress disorder was measured using a modified Breslau scale. Twelve-month and lifetime physical intimate partner violence were measured with the Partner Violence Screen and the STaT ("slapped, threatened and throw") measure. Multivariable regression determined factors independently associated with headache severity. Among all participants, 28.3% screened positive for posttraumatic stress disorder; 9.8% and 36.9% of women endorsed recent and lifetime intimate partner violence. Posttraumatic stress disorder was strongly associated with headache severity (β = 34.12, p = 0.01). Patients reporting lifetime intimate partner violence exhibited a trend of nine additional days of disability due to headache over 90 days. Posttraumatic stress disorder and intimate partner violence occur among a sizable proportion of women referred for headache. The authors' findings reaffirm that clinicians treating women with headaches must be aware of the possibility of posttraumatic stress disorder and intimate partner violence in such patients.

CDC Grand Rounds: global tobacco control.

PubMed

Asma, Samira; Song, Yang; Cohen, Joanna; Eriksen, Michael; Pechacek, Terry; Cohen, Nicole; Iskander, John

2014-04-04

During the 20th century, use of tobacco products contributed to the deaths of 100 million persons worldwide. In 2011, approximately 6 million additional deaths were linked to tobacco use, the world's leading underlying cause of death, responsible for more deaths each year than human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS), tuberculosis, and malaria combined. One third to one half of lifetime users die from tobacco products, and smokers die an average of 14 years earlier than nonsmokers. Manufactured cigarettes account for 96% of all tobacco sales worldwide. From 1880 to 2009, annual global consumption of cigarettes increased from an estimated 10 billion cigarettes to approximately 5.9 trillion cigarettes, with five countries accounting for 58% of the total consumption: China (38%), Russia (7%), the United States (5%), Indonesia (4%), and Japan (4%). Among the estimated 1 billion smokers worldwide, men outnumber women by four to one. In 14 countries, at least 50% of men smoke, whereas in more than half of these same countries, fewer than 10% of women smoke. If current trends persist, an estimated 500 million persons alive today will die from use of tobacco products. By 2030, tobacco use will result in the deaths of approximately 8 million persons worldwide each year. Yet, every death from tobacco products is preventable.

Hidden Markov analysis of mechanosensitive ion channel gating.

PubMed

Khan, R Nazim; Martinac, Boris; Madsen, Barry W; Milne, Robin K; Yeo, Geoffrey F; Edeson, Robert O

2005-02-01

Patch clamp data from the large conductance mechanosensitive channel (MscL) in E. coli was studied with the aim of developing a strategy for statistical analysis based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) and determining the number of conductance levels of the channel, together with mean current, mean dwell time and equilibrium probability of occupancy for each level. The models incorporated state-dependent white noise and moving average adjustment for filtering, with maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained using an EM (expectation-maximisation) based iteration. Adjustment for filtering was included as it could be expected that the electronic filter used in recording would have a major effect on obviously brief intermediate conductance level sojourns. Preliminary data analysis revealed that the brevity of intermediate level sojourns caused difficulties in assignment of data points to levels as a result of over-estimation of noise variances. When reasonable constraints were placed on these variances using the better determined noise variances for the closed and fully open levels, idealisation anomalies were eliminated. Nevertheless, simulations suggested that mean sojourn times for the intermediate levels were still considerably over-estimated, and that recording bandwidth was a major limitation; improved results were obtained with higher bandwidth data (10 kHz sampled at 25 kHz). The simplest model consistent with these data had four open conductance levels, intermediate levels being approximately 20%, 51% and 74% of fully open. The mean lifetime at the fully open level was about 1 ms; estimates for the three intermediate levels were 54-92 micros, probably still over-estimates.

Fatigue Analysis of Rotating Parts. A Case Study for a Belt Driven Pulley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandu, Ionela; Tabacu, Stefan; Ducu, Catalin

2017-10-01

The present study is focused on the life estimation of a rotating part as a component of an engine assembly namely the pulley of the coolant pump. The goal of the paper is to develop a model, supported by numerical analysis, capable to predict the lifetime of the part. Starting from functional drawing, CAD Model and technical specifications of the part a numerical model was developed. MATLAB code was used to develop a tool to apply the load over the selected area. The numerical analysis was performed in two steps. The first simulation concerned the inertia relief due to rotational motion about the shaft (of the pump). Results from this simulation were saved and the stress - strain state used as initial conditions for the analysis with the load applied. The lifetime of a good part was estimated. A defect was created in order to investigate the influence over the working requirements. It was found that there is little influence with respect to the prescribed lifetime.

Adding smoking to the Fardal model of cost-effectiveness for the life-time treatment of periodontal diseases.

PubMed

Fardal, Øystein; Grytten, Jostein; Martin, John; Ellingsen, Stig; Fardal, Patrick; Heasman, Peter; Linden, Gerard J

2018-05-16

Little is known about the financial costs that smoking adds to the life-time treatment of periodontal disease. The total life-time cost of periodontal treatment was modelled using data from private periodontal practice. The costs of initial and supportive therapy, re-treatment and tooth replacements (with bridgework or implants) were identified using average dental charges from the American Dental Association survey. Smoking costs at $6 and $10 for 20 cigarettes were compared to the costs of life-time periodontal treatment for stable and unstable compliant patients. Smoking added 8.8% to the financial cost of the life-time cost of periodontal therapy in stable maintenance patients, 40.1% in patients who needed one extra maintenance visit and 71.4% in patients who needed two extra maintenance visits per year in addition to added re-treatment. The cost of smoking far exceeded the cost of periodontal treatment; For patients who smoked 10 to 40 cigarettes per day at the cost of $6 or $10 a pack, the cost of smoking exceeded the cost of life-time periodontal treatment by between 2.7 and 17.9 times. Smoking 40 cigarettes at $10 a packet for 3.4 years would pay for the entire life-time cost of periodontal treatment. Smoking adds considerable extra financial costs to the life-time treatment of periodontal diseases. The cost of smoking itself exceeds the cost of periodontal therapy. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 American Academy of Periodontology.

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori J.; Wang, Minli; Kim, Myung-Hee

2011-01-01

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Rapid intercontinental air pollution transport associated with a meteorological bomb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.; Huntrieser, H.; Richter, A.; Beirle, S.; Cooper, O. R.; Eckhardt, S.; Forster, C.; James, P.; Spichtinger, N.; Wenig, M.; Wagner, T.; Burrows, J. P.; Platt, U.

2003-07-01

Intercontinental transport (ICT) of trace substances normally occurs on timescales ranging from a few days to several weeks. In this paper an extraordinary episode in November 2001 is presented, where pollution transport across the North Atlantic took only about one day. The transport mechanism, termed here an intercontinental pollution express highway because of the high wind speeds, was exceptional, as it involved an explosively generated cyclone, a so-called meteorological "bomb''. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study describing pollution transport in a bomb. The discovery of this event was based on tracer transport model calculations and satellite measurements of NO2, a species with a relatively short lifetime in the atmosphere, which could be transported that far only because of the high wind speeds produced by the bomb. A 15-year transport climatology shows that intercontinental express highways are about four times more frequent in winter than in summer, in agreement with bomb climatologies. The climatology furthermore suggests that intercontinental express highways may be important for the budget of short-lived substances in the remote troposphere. For instance, for a substance with a lifetime of 1 day, express highways may be responsible for about two thirds of the total ICT. We roughly estimate that express highways connecting North America with Europe enhance the average NOx mixing ratios over Europe, due to North American emissions, by about 2-3 pptv in winter.

Estimating job runtime for CMS analysis jobs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sfiligoi, I.

2014-06-01

The basic premise of pilot systems is to create an overlay scheduling system on top of leased resources. And by definition, leases have a limited lifetime, so any job that is scheduled on such resources must finish before the lease is over, or it will be killed and all the computation is wasted. In order to effectively schedule jobs to resources, the pilot system thus requires the expected runtime of the users' jobs. Past studies have shown that relying on user provided estimates is not a valid strategy, so the system should try to make an estimate by itself. This paper provides a study of the historical data obtained from the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment's Analysis Operations submission system. Clear patterns are observed, suggesting that making prediction of an expected job lifetime range is achievable with high confidence level in this environment.

Convective rain rates and their evolution during storms in a semiarid climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doneaud, A. A.; Miller, J. R., Jr.; Ionescu-Niscov, S.

1984-01-01

The semiarid climate of the U.S. northern High Plains region has been studied with respect to rain rates and their evolution during summertime convective storms, using radar data from a total of 750 radar echo clusters. Analysis of this data suggests that the average rain rate R among storms is in a first approximation independent of the total rain volume, if the entire storm duration is considered in the averaging process. R primarily depends on the reflectivity threshold considered in calculating the area coverage integrated over the lifetime of the storm. R evolution during storms is analyzed by dividing each storm lifetime into 10 min, 1, 2, and 4 hours, as well as growing and decaying periods. The value of R remained independent of the total rain volume when the growing or decaying periods of storms were considered separately.

Challenges and solutions for applying the travel cost demand model to geographically remote visitor destinations: A case study of bear viewing at Katmai National Park and Preserve

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Leslie; Huber, Christopher; Loomis, John

2017-01-01

Remote and unique destinations present difficulties when attempting to construct traditional travel cost models to value recreation demand. The biggest limitation comes from the lack of variation in the dependent variable, defined as the number of trips taken over a set time frame. There are various approaches that can be used for overcoming limitations of the traditional travel cost model in the context of remote destinations. This study applies an adaptation of the standard model to estimate recreation benefits of bear viewing at Katmai National Park and Preserve in Alaska, which represents a once-in-a-lifetime experience for many visitors. Results demonstrate that visitors to this park’s Brooks Camp area are willing to pay an average of US$287 per day of bear viewing. Implications of these findings for valuing recreation at other remote destinations are discussed.

Evidence of Polyandry for Aedes aegypti in Semifield Enclosures

PubMed Central

Helinski, Michelle E. H.; Valerio, Laura; Facchinelli, Luca; Scott, Thomas W.; Ramsey, Janine; Harrington, Laura C.

2012-01-01

Female Aedes aegypti are assumed to be primarily monandrous (i.e., mate only once in their lifetime), but true estimates of mating frequency have not been determined outside the laboratory. To assess polyandry in Ae. aegypti with first-generation progeny from wild mosquitoes, stable isotope semen-labeled males (15N or 13C) were allowed to mate with unlabeled females in semifield enclosures (22.5 m3) in a dengue-endemic area in southern Mexico. On average, 14% of females were positive for both labels, indicating that they received semen from more than one male. Our results provide evidence of a small but potentially significant rate of multiple mating within a 48-hour period and provide an approach for future open-field studies of polyandry in this species. Polyandry has implications for understanding mosquito ecology, evolution, and reproductive behavior as well as genetic strategies for mosquito control. PMID:22492148