Revisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria Control

PubMed Central

Smith, David L; McKenzie, F. Ellis; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2007-01-01

The prospects for the success of malaria control depend, in part, on the basic reproductive number for malaria, R 0. Here, we estimate R 0 in a novel way for 121 African populations, and thereby increase the number of R 0 estimates for malaria by an order of magnitude. The estimates range from around one to more than 3,000. We also consider malaria transmission and control in finite human populations, of size H. We show that classic formulas approximate the expected number of mosquitoes that could trace infection back to one mosquito after one parasite generation, Z 0(H), but they overestimate the expected number of infected humans per infected human, R 0(H). Heterogeneous biting increases R 0 and, as we show, Z 0(H), but we also show that it sometimes reduces R 0(H); those who are bitten most both infect many vectors and absorb infectious bites. The large range of R 0 estimates strongly supports the long-held notion that malaria control presents variable challenges across its transmission spectrum. In populations where R 0 is highest, malaria control will require multiple, integrated methods that target those who are bitten most. Therefore, strategic planning for malaria control should consider R 0, the spatial scale of transmission, human population density, and heterogeneous biting. PMID:17311470

Modeling the Epidemiology of Cholera to Prevent Disease Transmission in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

MUKANDAVIRE, ZINDOGA; MORRIS, J. GLENN

2015-01-01

Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, which is capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. A number of mathematical models have been developed to help in understanding the dynamics of cholera outbreaks and for use as a tool in planning interventions, including vaccination campaigns. We have explored the utility of models in assessing the spread of cholera in the recent epidemics in Zimbabwe and Haiti. In both instances, a mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive number ℜ0, and the partial reproductive numbers reflecting potential differences in environmental-to-human versus human-to-human transmission were quantified. In Zimbabwe, estimated ℜ0 for the epidemic using aggregated data at the national level was 1.15; in Haiti, it was 1.55. However, when calculated at a provincial/departmental level, estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, with a range of 1.11 to 2.72 in Zimbabwe and 1.06 to 2.63 in Haiti. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from region to region, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. They also highlight the potential utility of these types of models in guiding development of public health intervention strategies. PMID:26185087

Avian life history profiles for use in the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, quantitatively estimates the effects of pesticides or other toxic chemicals on annual reproductive success of avian species (Bennett and Etterson 2013, Etterson and Bennett 2013). The Basic Version of MCnest was developed as a...

A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak

PubMed Central

Kadi, Adiveppa S.; Avaradi, Shivakumari R.

2015-01-01

Background. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great concern, which posed new challenges to the health authorities worldwide. To control these diseases various studies have been developed in the field of mathematical modelling, which is useful tool for understanding the epidemiological dynamics and their dependence on social mixing patterns. Method. We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (R 0), using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. We have estimated R 0 from daily case incidence data for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in India, for the initial phase. Result. The estimated R 0 with 95% credible interval is consistent with several other studies on the same strain. Through sensitivity analysis our study indicates that infectiousness affects the estimate of R 0. Conclusion. Basic reproduction number R 0 provides the useful information to the public health system to do some effort in controlling the disease by using mitigation strategies like vaccination, quarantine, and so forth. PMID:25784956

Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

PubMed

Battaile, Brian C; Trites, Andrew W

2013-01-01

We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

A Dynamic Model of Human and Livestock Tuberculosis Spread and Control in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Shan; Li, Aiqiao; Feng, Xiaomei; Zhang, Xueliang

2016-01-01

We establish a dynamical model for tuberculosis of humans and cows. For the model, we firstly give the basic reproduction number R 0. Furthermore, we discuss the dynamical behaviors of the model. By epidemiological investigation of tuberculosis among humans and livestock from 2007 to 2014 in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China, we estimate the parameters of the model and study the transmission trend of the disease in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China. The reproduction number in Urumqi for the model is estimated to be 0.1811 (95% confidence interval: 0.123–0.281). Finally, we perform some sensitivity analysis of several model parameters and give some useful comments on controlling the transmission of tuberculosis. PMID:27525034

The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Fuentes, R; Olea, A; Aguilera, X; Nesse, H; Hyman, J M

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on the transmission dynamics and epidemic size as a function of the simulated control intensity levels and the timing of initiation of control interventions. Because no dengue outbreaks had been reported prior to 2002 in Easter Island, the 2002 epidemic provided a unique opportunity to estimate the basic reproduction number R0 during the initial epidemic phase, prior to the start of control interventions. We estimated R0 at 27.2 (95%CI: 14.8, 49.3). We found that the final epidemic size is highly sensitive to the timing of start of interventions. However, even when the control interventions start several weeks after the epidemic onset, reactive intervention efforts can have a significant impact on the final epidemic size. Our results indicate that the rapid implementation of control interventions can have a significant effect in reducing the epidemic size of dengue epidemics.

Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses.

PubMed

Nyirenda, Mayumbo; Omori, Ryosuke; Tessmer, Heidi L; Arimura, Hiroki; Ito, Kimihito

2016-01-01

The prediction of the lineage dynamics of influenza B viruses for the next season is one of the largest obstacles for constructing an appropriate influenza trivalent vaccine. Seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference between the two major influenza B lineages make the lineage dynamics complicated. Here we construct a parsimonious model describing the lineage dynamics while taking into account seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference. Using this model we estimated the epidemiological and evolutional parameters with the time-series data of the lineage specific isolates in Japan from the 2010-2011 season to the 2014-2015 season. The basic reproduction number is similar between Victoria and Yamagata, with a minimum value during one year as 0.82 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 0.77-0.87) for the Yamagata and 0.83 (95% HPD: 0.74-0.92) for Victoria, the amplitude of seasonal variation of the basic reproduction number is 0.77 (95% HPD:0.66-0.87) for Yamagata and 1.05 (95% HPD: 0.89-1.02) for Victoria. The duration for which the acquired immunity is effective against infection by the Yamagata lineage is shorter than the acquired immunity for Victoria, 424.1days (95% HPD:317.4-561.5days). The reduction rate of susceptibility due to immune cross-reaction is 0.51 (95% HPD: 0.084-0.92) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Yamagata against the infection with Victoria and 0.62 (95% HPD: 0.42-0.80) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Victoria against the infection with Yamagata. Using estimated parameters, we predicted the dominant lineage in 2015-2016 season. The accuracy of this prediction is 68.8% if the emergence timings of the two lineages are known and 61.4% if the emergence timings are unknown. Estimated seasonal variation of the lineage specific reproduction number can narrow down the range of emergence timing, with an accuracy of 64.6% if the emergence times are assumed to be the time at which the estimated reproduction number exceeds one.

Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowell, Gerardo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2008-03-01

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza. First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements.

Incidence and Reproduction Numbers of Pertussis: Estimates from Serological and Social Contact Data in Five European Countries

PubMed Central

Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Teunis, Peter F. M.; Pebody, Richard G.

2010-01-01

Background Despite large-scale vaccination programmes, pertussis has remained endemic in all European countries and has been on the rise in many countries in the last decade. One of the reasons that have been discussed for the failure of vaccination to eliminate the disease is continued circulation of the pathogen Bordetella pertussis by mostly asymptomatic and mild infections in adolescents and adults. To understand the impact of asymptomatic and undiagnosed infection on the transmission dynamics of pertussis we analysed serological data from five European countries in combination with information about social contact patterns from five of those countries to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers. Methods and Findings We compared two different methods for estimating incidence from individual data on IgG pertussis toxin (PT) titres. One method combines the cross-sectional surveys of titres with longitudinal information about the distribution of amplitude and decay rate of titres in a back-calculation approach. The second method uses age-dependent contact matrices and cross-sectional surveys of IgG PT titres to estimate a next generation matrix for pertussis transmission among age groups. The next generation approach allows for computation of basic reproduction numbers for five European countries. Our main findings are that the seroincidence of infections as estimated with the first method in all countries lies between 1% and 6% per annum with a peak in the adolescent age groups and a second lower peak in young adults. The incidence of infections as estimated by the second method lies slightly lower with ranges between 1% and 4% per annum. There is a remarkably good agreement of the results obtained with the two methods. The basic reproduction numbers are similar across countries at around 5.5. Conclusions Vaccination with currently used vaccines cannot prevent continued circulation and reinfection with pertussis, but has shifted the bulk of infections to adolescents and adults. If a vaccine conferring lifelong protection against clinical and subclinical infection were available pertussis could be eliminated. Currently, continuing circulation of the pathogen at a subclinical level provides a refuge for the pathogen in which it can evolve and adjust to infect vaccinated populations. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20585374

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda.

PubMed

Barongo, Mike B; Ståhl, Karl; Bett, Bernard; Bishop, Richard P; Fèvre, Eric M; Aliro, Tony; Okoth, Edward; Masembe, Charles; Knobel, Darryn; Ssematimba, Amos

2015-01-01

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.

An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number

PubMed Central

Fisman, David N.; Hauck, Tanya S.; Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Greer, Amy L.

2013-01-01

Background Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. Methodology The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Principal Findings Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1th serial interval using data from the ith serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. Conclusions and Significance This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists. PMID:24391797

An IDEA for short term outbreak projection: nearcasting using the basic reproduction number.

PubMed

Fisman, David N; Hauck, Tanya S; Tuite, Ashleigh R; Greer, Amy L

2013-01-01

Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1(th) serial interval using data from the i(th) serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists.

Analysis of SI models with multiple interacting populations using subpopulations.

PubMed

Thomas, Evelyn K; Gurski, Katharine F; Hoffman, Kathleen A

2015-02-01

Computing endemic equilibria and basic reproductive numbers for systems of differential equations describing epidemiological systems with multiple connections between subpopulations is often algebraically intractable. We present an alternative method which deconstructs the larger system into smaller subsystems and captures the interactions between the smaller systems as external forces using an approximate model. We bound the basic reproductive numbers of the full system in terms of the basic reproductive numbers of the smaller systems and use the alternate model to provide approximations for the endemic equilibrium. In addition to creating algebraically tractable reproductive numbers and endemic equilibria, we can demonstrate the influence of the interactions between subpopulations on the basic reproductive number of the full system. The focus of this paper is to provide analytical tools to help guide public health decisions with limited intervention resources.

Modelling the effects of contaminated environments on HFMD infections in mainland China.

PubMed

Wang, Jinyan; Xiao, Yanni; Cheke, Robert A

2016-02-01

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely in mainland China increasing in prevalence in most years with serious consequences for child health. The HFMD virus can survive for a long period outside the host in suitable conditions, and hence contaminated environments may play important roles in HFMD infection. A new mathematical model was proposed and used to investigate the roles that asymptomatic individuals and contaminated environments played in HFMD dynamics. The model includes both direct transmission between susceptible and infected individuals and indirect transmission via free-living infectious unites in the environment. Theoretical analysis shows that the disease goes to extinction if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, whilst otherwise the disease persists. By fitting the proposed model to surveillance data we estimated the basic reproduction number as 1.509. Numerical simulations show that increasing the rate of virus clearance and decreasing transmission rates can delay epidemic outbreaks and weaken the severity of HFMD. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the basic reproduction number is sensitive to the transmission rate induced by asymptomatic infectious individuals and parameters associated with contaminated environments such as the indirect transmission rate, the rate of clearance and the virus shedding rates. This implies that asymptomatic infectious individuals and contaminated environments contribute substantially to new HFMD infections, and so would be targets for effective control measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

How does the host population's network structure affect the estimation accuracy of epidemic parameters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yashima, Kenta; Ito, Kana; Nakamura, Kazuyuki

2013-03-01

When an Infectious disease where to prevail throughout the population, epidemic parameters such as the basic reproduction ratio, initial point of infection etc. are estimated from the time series data of infected population. However, it is unclear how does the structure of host population affects this estimation accuracy. In other words, what kind of city is difficult to estimate its epidemic parameters? To answer this question, epidemic data are simulated by constructing a commuting network with different network structure and running the infection process over this network. From the given time series data for each network structure, we would like to analyzed estimation accuracy of epidemic parameters.

Multi-stage Vector-Borne Zoonoses Models: A Global Analysis.

PubMed

Bichara, Derdei; Iggidr, Abderrahman; Smith, Laura

2018-04-25

A class of models that describes the interactions between multiple host species and an arthropod vector is formulated and its dynamics investigated. A host-vector disease model where the host's infection is structured into n stages is formulated and a complete global dynamics analysis is provided. The basic reproduction number acts as a sharp threshold, that is, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) whenever [Formula: see text] and that a unique interior endemic equilibrium exists and is GAS if [Formula: see text]. We proceed to extend this model with m host species, capturing a class of zoonoses where the cross-species bridge is an arthropod vector. The basic reproduction number of the multi-host-vector, [Formula: see text], is derived and shown to be the sum of basic reproduction numbers of the model when each host is isolated with an arthropod vector. It is shown that the disease will persist in all hosts as long as it persists in one host. Moreover, the overall basic reproduction number increases with respect to the host and that bringing the basic reproduction number of each isolated host below unity in each host is not sufficient to eradicate the disease in all hosts. This is a type of "amplification effect," that is, for the considered vector-borne zoonoses, the increase in host diversity increases the basic reproduction number and therefore the disease burden.

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America.

PubMed

Shutt, Deborah P; Manore, Carrie A; Pankavich, Stephen; Porter, Aaron T; Del Valle, Sara Y

2017-12-01

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

DOE PAGES

Shutt, Deborah P.; Manore, Carrie A.; Pankavich, Stephen; ...

2017-07-13

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate formore » Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.« less

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shutt, Deborah P.; Manore, Carrie A.; Pankavich, Stephen

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate formore » Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.« less

The reproductive health needs of refugees: emerging consensus attracts predictable controversy.

PubMed

Cohen, S A

1998-10-01

According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, there are approximately 40 million refugees and other internally displaced people worldwide, with the overwhelming majority coming from and still living in developed countries. 80% of all refugees are estimated to be women and children. Many refugees spend months and even years in what are designed to be temporary settings where efforts are made to accommodate their basic needs such as food, clean water, shelter, security, and primary health care during emergency situations. Women refugees, however, have certain unique needs beyond what traditionally have been considered basic in relief programs. Many women in developing countries suffer considerable health risks during the best of times due to their poverty or low social status. When fleeing conflict or natural disaster, their health status is at even higher risk of being compromised by severe living conditions and the complete absence of reproductive health services. The recognition that women refugees often face serious and sometimes life-threatening reproductive health-related situations led to the development of a field manual on reproductive health for use at the local level. Planned for publication in late 1998 or early 1999, the guide will describe the goals of a minimum array of reproductive health services in the early phase of an emergency and provide direct guidance on care relating to sexual violence, STDs, family planning, adolescents' needs, and other reproductive health concerns such as female genital mutilation and treatment for septic and incomplete abortion. The manual has garnered worldwide attention and support, as well as scrutiny by abortion opponents in the US, in particular New Jersey Republican Representative Chris Smith.

Analytic calculation of finite-population reproductive numbers for direct- and vector-transmitted diseases with homogeneous mixing.

PubMed

Keegan, Lindsay; Dushoff, Jonathan

2014-05-01

The basic reproductive number, R0, provides a foundation for evaluating how various factors affect the incidence of infectious diseases. Recently, it has been suggested that, particularly for vector-transmitted diseases, R0 should be modified to account for the effects of finite host population within a single disease transmission generation. Here, we use a transmission factor approach to calculate such "finite-population reproductive numbers," under the assumption of homogeneous mixing, for both vector-borne and directly transmitted diseases. In the case of vector-borne diseases, we estimate finite-population reproductive numbers for both host-to-host and vector-to-vector generations, assuming that the vector population is effectively infinite. We find simple, interpretable formulas for all three of these quantities. In the direct case, we find that finite-population reproductive numbers diverge from R0 before R0 reaches half of the population size. In the vector-transmitted case, we find that the host-to-host number diverges at even lower values of R0, while the vector-to-vector number diverges very little over realistic parameter ranges.

Reproduction numbers for infections with free-living pathogens growing in the environment.

PubMed

Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Gautam, Raju; Shuai, Zhisheng; van den Driessche, P; Ivanek, Renata

2012-01-01

The basic reproduction number ℛ(0) for a compartmental disease model is often calculated by the next generation matrix (NGM) approach. When the interactions within and between disease compartments are interpreted differently, the NGM approach may lead to different ℛ(0) expressions. This is demonstrated by considering a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model with free-living pathogen (FLP) growing in the environment. Although the environment could play different roles in the disease transmission process, leading to different ℛ(0) expressions, there is a unique type reproduction number when control strategies are applied to the host population. All ℛ(0) expressions agree on the threshold value 1 and preserve their order of magnitude. However, using data for salmonellosis and cholera, it is shown that the estimated ℛ(0) values are substantially different. This study highlights the utility and limitations of reproduction numbers to accurately quantify the effects of control strategies for infections with FLPs growing in the environment.

Estimating the number of double-strand breaks formed during meiosis from partial observation.

PubMed

Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tsubouchi, Hideo

2012-12-01

Analyzing the basic mechanism of DNA double-strand breaks (DSB) formation during meiosis is important for understanding sexual reproduction and genetic diversity. The location and amount of meiotic DSBs can be examined by using a common molecular biological technique called Southern blotting, but only a subset of the total DSBs can be observed; only DSB fragments still carrying the region recognized by a Southern blot probe are detected. With the assumption that DSB formation follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, we propose two estimators of the total number of DSBs on a chromosome: (1) an estimator based on the Nelson-Aalen estimator, and (2) an estimator based on a record value process. Further, we compared their asymptotic accuracy.

Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Ratio for Dengue Fever at the Take-Off Period of Dengue Infection.

PubMed

Jafaruddin; Indratno, Sapto W; Nuraini, Nuning; Supriatna, Asep K; Soewono, Edy

2015-01-01

Estimating the basic reproductive ratio ℛ 0 of dengue fever has continued to be an ever-increasing challenge among epidemiologists. In this paper we propose two different constructions to estimate ℛ 0 which is derived from a dynamical system of host-vector dengue transmission model. The construction is based on the original assumption that in the early states of an epidemic the infected human compartment increases exponentially at the same rate as the infected mosquito compartment (previous work). In the first proposed construction, we modify previous works by assuming that the rates of infection for mosquito and human compartments might be different. In the second construction, we add an improvement by including more realistic conditions in which the dynamics of an infected human compartments are intervened by the dynamics of an infected mosquito compartment, and vice versa. We apply our construction to the real dengue epidemic data from SB Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, during the period of outbreak Nov. 25, 2008-Dec. 2012. We also propose two scenarios to determine the take-off rate of infection at the beginning of a dengue epidemic for construction of the estimates of ℛ 0: scenario I from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to time (daily) and scenario II from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to cumulative number of new cases of dengue. The results show that our first construction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans. Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa. We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.

Basic reproduction number of coxsackievirus type A6 and A16 and enterovirus 71: estimates from outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore, a tropical city-state.

PubMed

Lim, C T K; Jiang, L; Ma, S; James, L; Ang, L W

2016-04-01

Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) were the major enteroviruses causing nationwide hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in Singapore in the last decade. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0) of these enteroviruses to obtain a better understanding of their transmission dynamics. We merged records of cases from HFMD outbreaks reported between 2007 and 2012 with laboratory results from virological surveillance. R 0 was estimated based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each outbreak associated with the particular enterovirus type. A total of 33 HFMD outbreaks were selected based on the inclusion criteria specified for our study, of which five were associated with CV-A6, 13 with CV-A16, and 15 with EV-A71. The median R 0 was estimated to be 5·04 [interquartile range (IQR) 3·57-5·16] for CV-A6, 2·42 (IQR 1·85-3·36) for CV-A16, and 3·50 (IQR 2·36-4·53) for EV-A71. R 0 was not significantly associated with number of infected children (P = 0·86), number of exposed children (P = 0·94), and duration of the outbreak (P = 0·05). These enterovirus-specific R 0 estimates will be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics and outbreaks for timely implementation of disease control measures, together with disease dynamics such as severity of the cases.

Mathematical model for HIV spreads control program with ART treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maimunah; Aldila, Dipo

2018-03-01

In this article, using a deterministic approach in a seven-dimensional nonlinear ordinary differential equation, we establish a mathematical model for the spread of HIV with an ART treatment intervention. In a simplified model, when no ART treatment is implemented, disease-free and the endemic equilibrium points were established analytically along with the basic reproduction number. The local stability criteria of disease-free equilibrium and the existing criteria of endemic equilibrium were analyzed. We find that endemic equilibrium exists when the basic reproduction number is larger than one. From the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of the complete model (with ART treatment), we find that the increased number of infected humans who follow the ART treatment program will reduce the basic reproduction number. We simulate this result also in the numerical experiment of the autonomous system to show how treatment intervention impacts the reduction of the infected population during the intervention time period.

Estimating finite-population reproductive numbers in heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Keegan, Lindsay T; Dushoff, Jonathan

2016-05-21

The basic reproductive number, R0, is one of the most important epidemiological quantities. R0 provides a threshold for elimination and determines when a disease can spread or when a disease will die out. Classically, R0 is calculated assuming an infinite population of identical hosts. Previous work has shown that heterogeneity in the host mixing rate increases R0 in an infinite population. However, it has been suggested that in a finite population, heterogeneity in the mixing rate may actually decrease the finite-population reproductive numbers. Here, we outline a framework for discussing different types of heterogeneity in disease parameters, and how these affect disease spread and control. We calculate "finite-population reproductive numbers" with different types of heterogeneity, and show that in a finite population, heterogeneity has complicated effects on the reproductive number. We find that simple heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive number, whereas heterogeneity in the intrinsic mixing rate (which affects both infectiousness and susceptibility) increases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is small relative to the size of the population and decreases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is large relative to the size of the population. Although heterogeneity has complicated effects on the finite-population reproductive numbers, its implications for control are straightforward: when R0 is large relative to the size of the population, heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive numbers, making disease control or elimination easier than predicted by R0. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE DISCOUNTED REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER FOR EPIDEMIOLOGY

PubMed Central

Reluga, Timothy C.; Medlock, Jan; Galvani, Alison

2013-01-01

The basic reproductive number, , and the effective reproductive number, , are commonly used in mathematical epidemiology as summary statistics for the size and controllability of epidemics. However, these commonly used reproductive numbers can be misleading when applied to predict pathogen evolution because they do not incorporate the impact of the timing of events in the life-history cycle of the pathogen. To study evolution problems where the host population size is changing, measures like the ultimate proliferation rate must be used. A third measure of reproductive success, which combines properties of both the basic reproductive number and the ultimate proliferation rate, is the discounted reproductive number . The discounted reproductive number is a measure of reproductive success that is an individual’s expected lifetime offspring production discounted by the background population growth rate. Here, we draw attention to the discounted reproductive number by providing an explicit definition and a systematic application framework. We describe how the discounted reproductive number overcomes the limitations of both the standard reproductive numbers and proliferation rates, and show that is closely connected to Fisher’s reproductive values for different life-history stages PMID:19364158

Estimating the impact of vaccination in acute SHIV-SIV infection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ribeiro, Ruy

2008-01-01

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infects approxmately 0.5% of the world population, and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A vaccine for HIV is urgently required, and a variety of vaccine modalities have been tested in animal models of infection. A number of these studies have shown protection in monkey models of infection, although the ability of the vaccine to protect appears to vary with the viral strain and animal model used. The recent failure of a large vaccine study in humans suggests that further understanding of the basic dynamics of infection and impact of vaccination are required,more » in order to understand the variable efficacy of vaccination in different infections. The dynamics of HIV infection have been studied in humans and in a variety of animal models. The standard model of infection has been used to estimate the basic reproductive ratio (R{sub 0}) of the virus, calculated from the growth rate of virus in acute infection. This method has not been useful in studying the effects of vaccination, since, in the vaccines developed so far, early growth rates of virus do not differ between control and vaccinated animals. Here, we use the standard model of viral dynamics to derive the reproductive ratio from the peak viral load and nadir of target cell numbers in acute infection. We apply this method to data from studies of vaccination in Simian Human Immunodeficiency Virus (SHIV) and Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) infection and demonstrate that vaccination can reduce the reproductive ratio by 2.3 and 2 fold respectively. This method allows the comparison of vaccination efficacy amongst different viral strains and animal models in vivo.« less

Immunology update: topics in basic and clinically applied reproductive immunology.

PubMed

Hunt, J S

1996-05-01

A postgraduate course covering basic and clinical reproductive immunology was held in Philadelphia, PA, U.S.A., on March 19, 1996, in conjunction with the annual meeting of the Society for Gynecological Investigation. The course was organized and chaired by Joseph A. Hill.

The basic reproduction number as a predictor for epidemic outbreaks in temporal networks.

PubMed

Holme, Petter; Masuda, Naoki

2015-01-01

The basic reproduction number R0--the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population--is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This severity can be more directly measured as the fraction of people infected once the outbreak is over, Ω. In traditional mathematical epidemiology and common formulations of static network epidemiology, there is a deterministic relationship between R0 and Ω. However, if one considers disease spreading on a temporal contact network--where one knows when contacts happen, not only between whom--then larger R0 does not necessarily imply larger Ω. In this paper, we numerically investigate the relationship between R0 and Ω for a set of empirical temporal networks of human contacts. Among 31 explanatory descriptors of temporal network structure, we identify those that make R0 an imperfect predictor of Ω. We find that descriptors related to both temporal and topological aspects affect the relationship between R0 and Ω, but in different ways.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

PubMed

Dobay, Akos; Pilo, Paola; Lindholm, Anna K; Origgi, Francesco; Bagheri, Homayoun C; König, Barbara

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice

PubMed Central

Dobay, Akos; Pilo, Paola; Lindholm, Anna K.; Origgi, Francesco; Bagheri, Homayoun C.; König, Barbara

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R 0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R 0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics. PMID:26536232

A Mathematical Model Of Dengue-Chikungunya Co-Infection In A Closed Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldila, Dipo; Ria Agustin, Maya

2018-03-01

Dengue disease has been a major health problem in many tropical and sub-tropical countries since the early 1900s. On the other hand, according to a 2017 WHO fact sheet, Chikungunya was detected in the first outbreak in 1952 in Tanzania and has continued increasing until now in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Both these diseases are vector-borne diseases which are spread by the same mosquito, i.e. the female Aedes aegypti. According to the WHO report, there is a great possibility that humans and mosquitos might be infected by dengue and chikungunya at the same time. Here in this article, a mathematical model approach will be used to understand the spread of dengue and chikungunya in a closed population. A model is developed as a nine-dimensional deterministic ordinary differential equation. Equilibrium points and their local stability are analyzed analytically and numerically. We find that the basic reproduction number, the endemic indicator, is given by the maximum of three different basic reproduction numbers of a complete system, i.e. basic reproduction numbers for dengue, chikungunya and for co-infection between dengue and chikungunya. We find that the basic reproduction number for the co-infection sub-system dominates other basic reproduction numbers whenever it is larger than one. Some numerical simulations are provided to confirm these analytical results.

An operational epidemiological model for calibrating agent-based simulations of pandemic influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Prieto, D; Das, T K

2016-03-01

Uncertainty of pandemic influenza viruses continue to cause major preparedness challenges for public health policymakers. Decisions to mitigate influenza outbreaks often involve tradeoff between the social costs of interventions (e.g., school closure) and the cost of uncontrolled spread of the virus. To achieve a balance, policymakers must assess the impact of mitigation strategies once an outbreak begins and the virus characteristics are known. Agent-based (AB) simulation is a useful tool for building highly granular disease spread models incorporating the epidemiological features of the virus as well as the demographic and social behavioral attributes of tens of millions of affected people. Such disease spread models provide excellent basis on which various mitigation strategies can be tested, before they are adopted and implemented by the policymakers. However, to serve as a testbed for the mitigation strategies, the AB simulation models must be operational. A critical requirement for operational AB models is that they are amenable for quick and simple calibration. The calibration process works as follows: the AB model accepts information available from the field and uses those to update its parameters such that some of its outputs in turn replicate the field data. In this paper, we present our epidemiological model based calibration methodology that has a low computational complexity and is easy to interpret. Our model accepts a field estimate of the basic reproduction number, and then uses it to update (calibrate) the infection probabilities in a way that its effect combined with the effects of the given virus epidemiology, demographics, and social behavior results in an infection pattern yielding a similar value of the basic reproduction number. We evaluate the accuracy of the calibration methodology by applying it for an AB simulation model mimicking a regional outbreak in the US. The calibrated model is shown to yield infection patterns closely replicating the input estimates of the basic reproduction number. The calibration method is also tested to replicate an initial infection incidence trend for a H1N1 outbreak like that of 2009.

Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

2015-08-01

A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 < 1 , and the disease will persist in the population if R0 > 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations.

PubMed

Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano

2016-04-14

Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

The basic reproduction number (R0) of measles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Guerra, Fiona M; Bolotin, Shelly; Lim, Gillian; Heffernan, Jane; Deeks, Shelley L; Li, Ye; Crowcroft, Natasha S

2017-12-01

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R 0 ), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. R 0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. As R 0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. For measles, R 0 is often cited to be 12-18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12-18 other people in a totally susceptible population. We did a systematic review to find studies reporting rigorous estimates and determinants of measles R 0 . Studies were included if they were a primary source of R 0 , addressed pre-existing immunity, and accounted for pre-existing immunity in their calculation of R 0 . A search of key databases was done in January, 2015, and repeated in November, 2016, and yielded 10 883 unique citations. After screening for relevancy and quality, 18 studies met inclusion criteria, providing 58 R 0 estimates. We calculated median measles R 0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R 0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12-18. Our results highlight the importance of countries calculating R 0 using locally derived data or, if this is not possible, using parameter estimates from similar settings. Additional data and agreed review methods are needed to strengthen the evidence base for measles elimination modelling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data

PubMed Central

Glass, K.; Mercer, G. N.; Nishiura, H.; McBryde, E. S.; Becker, N. G.

2011-01-01

We present a method for estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from daily onset data, using pandemic influenza A(H1N1) data as a case study. We investigate the impact of different underlying transmission assumptions on our estimates, and identify that asymmetric reproduction matrices are often appropriate. Under-reporting of cases can bias estimates of the reproduction numbers if reporting rates are not equal across the two age groups. However, we demonstrate that the estimate of the higher reproduction number is robust to disproportionate data-thinning. Applying the method to 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 data from Japan, we demonstrate that the reproduction number for children was considerably higher than that of adults, and that our estimates are insensitive to our choice of reproduction matrix. PMID:21345858

Estimation of the dynamics and rate of transmission of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs.

PubMed Central

Hone, J.; Pech, R.; Yip, P.

1992-01-01

Infectious diseases establish in a population of wildlife hosts when the number of secondary infections is greater than or equal to one. To estimate whether establishment will occur requires extensive experience or a mathematical model of disease dynamics and estimates of the parameters of the disease model. The latter approach is explored here. Methods for estimating key model parameters, the transmission coefficient (beta) and the basic reproductive rate (RDRS), are described using classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs as an example. The tentative results indicate that an acute infection of classical swine fever will establish in a small population of wild pigs. Data required for estimation of disease transmission rates are reviewed and sources of bias and alternative methods discussed. A comprehensive evaluation of the biases and efficiencies of the methods is needed. PMID:1582476

Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

PubMed

Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

2015-06-01

We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

Disease invasion risk in a growing population.

PubMed

Yuan, Sanling; van den Driessche, P; Willeboordse, Frederick H; Shuai, Zhisheng; Ma, Junling

2016-09-01

The spread of an infectious disease may depend on the population size. For simplicity, classic epidemic models assume homogeneous mixing, usually standard incidence or mass action. For standard incidence, the contact rate between any pair of individuals is inversely proportional to the population size, and so the basic reproduction number (and thus the initial exponential growth rate of the disease) is independent of the population size. For mass action, this contact rate remains constant, predicting that the basic reproduction number increases linearly with the population size, meaning that disease invasion is easiest when the population is largest. In this paper, we show that neither of these may be true on a slowly evolving contact network: the basic reproduction number of a short epidemic can reach its maximum while the population is still growing. The basic reproduction number is proportional to the spectral radius of a contact matrix, which is shown numerically to be well approximated by the average excess degree of the contact network. We base our analysis on modeling the dynamics of the average excess degree of a random contact network with constant population input, proportional deaths, and preferential attachment for contacts brought in by incoming individuals (i.e., individuals with more contacts attract more incoming contacts). In addition, we show that our result also holds for uniform attachment of incoming contacts (i.e., every individual has the same chance of attracting incoming contacts), and much more general population dynamics. Our results show that a disease spreading in a growing population may evade control if disease control planning is based on the basic reproduction number at maximum population size.

The population-development tangle. Aspects and actors.

PubMed

Sen, G

1993-01-01

Since the 1974 Population Conference, the population field has become of interest to members of the fundamentalist right wing, feminists, and environmentalists. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the areas of agreement and disagreement among each set of actors as well as how they define the issues. Currently, development discourse is characterized by considerations of: 1) economic growth, 2) the provision of livelihoods, 3) the provision of basic needs, 4) ecological sustainability and renewability, and 5) political participation. The actors who define the terms of this discourse include: 1) corporate interests, which concentrate on economic growth; 2) international and national agencies, which place primary importance on economic growth and some importance on basic needs and ecological sustainability; 3) popular organizations and social movements, which concentrate on livelihoods, basic needs, and political participation; and 4) environmentalists, who focus on ecological sustainability, economic growth, and (occasionally) political participation. The field of population, on the other hand, is dominated by traditional populationists, whose primary focus is economic growth; developmentalists; the fundamentalist right, who are most concerned with family and control over reproduction; environmentalists; and the women's movement, which is most concerned with reproductive rights and reproductive health. When the perspective of poor women is considered, it can be seen that economic growth and ecological sustainability must support the securing of livelihoods, basic needs, political participation, and reproductive rights, and that reproductive health programs must be part of an overall health agenda.

Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China.

PubMed

Li, Ming-Tao; Sun, Gui-Quan; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Jin, Zhen

2017-03-12

Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks. Estimated basic reproduction numbers were highly heterogeneous, varying widely among provinces. The local basic reproduction numbers of provinces with an obvious increase in incidence were much larger than the average for the country as a whole, suggesting that environment-to-individual transmission was more common than individual-to-individual transmission. We concluded that brucellosis can be controlled through increasing animal vaccination rates, environment disinfection frequency, or elimination rates of infected animals. Our finding suggests that a combination of animal vaccination, environment disinfection, and elimination of infected animals will be necessary to ensure cost-effective control for brucellosis.

Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China

PubMed Central

Li, Ming-Tao; Sun, Gui-Quan; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Jin, Zhen

2017-01-01

Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks. Estimated basic reproduction numbers were highly heterogeneous, varying widely among provinces. The local basic reproduction numbers of provinces with an obvious increase in incidence were much larger than the average for the country as a whole, suggesting that environment-to-individual transmission was more common than individual-to-individual transmission. We concluded that brucellosis can be controlled through increasing animal vaccination rates, environment disinfection frequency, or elimination rates of infected animals. Our finding suggests that a combination of animal vaccination, environment disinfection, and elimination of infected animals will be necessary to ensure cost-effective control for brucellosis. PMID:28287496

The coverage and frequency of mass drug administration required to eliminate persistent transmission of soil-transmitted helminths

PubMed Central

Anderson, Roy; Truscott, James; Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre

2014-01-01

A combination of methods, including mathematical model construction, demographic plus epidemiological data analysis and parameter estimation, are used to examine whether mass drug administration (MDA) alone can eliminate the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). Numerical analyses suggest that in all but low transmission settings (as defined by the magnitude of the basic reproductive number, R0), the treatment of pre-school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) is unlikely to drive transmission to a level where the parasites cannot persist. High levels of coverage (defined as the fraction of an age group effectively treated) are required in pre-SAC, SAC and adults, if MDA is to drive the parasite below the breakpoint under which transmission is eliminated. Long-term solutions to controlling helminth infections lie in concomitantly improving the quality of the water supply, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). MDA, however, is a very cost-effective tool in long-term control given that most drugs are donated free by the pharmaceutical industry for poor regions of the world. WASH interventions, by lowering the basic reproductive number, can facilitate the ability of MDA to interrupt transmission. PMID:24821921

The coverage and frequency of mass drug administration required to eliminate persistent transmission of soil-transmitted helminths.

PubMed

Anderson, Roy; Truscott, James; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre

2014-01-01

A combination of methods, including mathematical model construction, demographic plus epidemiological data analysis and parameter estimation, are used to examine whether mass drug administration (MDA) alone can eliminate the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). Numerical analyses suggest that in all but low transmission settings (as defined by the magnitude of the basic reproductive number, R0), the treatment of pre-school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) is unlikely to drive transmission to a level where the parasites cannot persist. High levels of coverage (defined as the fraction of an age group effectively treated) are required in pre-SAC, SAC and adults, if MDA is to drive the parasite below the breakpoint under which transmission is eliminated. Long-term solutions to controlling helminth infections lie in concomitantly improving the quality of the water supply, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). MDA, however, is a very cost-effective tool in long-term control given that most drugs are donated free by the pharmaceutical industry for poor regions of the world. WASH interventions, by lowering the basic reproductive number, can facilitate the ability of MDA to interrupt transmission.

Global stability analysis of two-strain epidemic model with bilinear and non-monotone incidence rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baba, Isa Abdullahi; Hincal, Evren

2017-05-01

In this article we studied an epidemic model consisting of two strains with different types of incidence rates; bilinear and non-monotone. The model consists of four equilibrium points: disease-free equilibrium, endemic with respect to strain 1, endemic with respect to strain 2, and endemic with respect to both strains. The global stability analysis of the equilibrium points was carried out through the use of Lyapunov functions. Two basic reproduction ratios R 1 0 and R 2 0 are found, and we have shown that if both are less than one, the disease dies out, and if both are greater than one epidemic occurs. Furthermore, epidemics occur with respect to any strain with a basic reproduction ratio greater than one and disease dies out with respect to any strain with a basic reproduction ratio less than one. It was also shown that any strain with highest basic reproduction ratio will automatically outperform the other strain, thereby eliminating it. Numerical simulations were carried out to support the analytic result and to show the effect of the parameter k in the non-monotone incidence rate, which describes the psychological effect of general public towards infection.

Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Xue, Ling; Scoglio, Caterina

2015-06-01

The basic reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or not. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge of disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between basic reproduction numbers of two deterministic network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing that the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem for proving existence of the relationships in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number does not monotonically increase or decrease with the extinction threshold. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

Analysis of A Virus Dynamics Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Baolin; Li, Jianquan; Li, Jia; Zhao, Xin

2018-03-01

In order to more accurately characterize the virus infection in the host, a virus dynamics model with latency and virulence is established and analyzed in this paper. The positivity and boundedness of the solution are proved. After obtaining the basic reproduction number and the existence of infected equilibrium, the Lyapunov method and the LaSalle invariance principle are used to determine the stability of the uninfected equilibrium and infected equilibrium by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. We prove that, when the basic reproduction number does not exceed 1, the uninfected equilibrium is globally stable, the virus can be cleared eventually; when the basic reproduction number is more than 1, the infected equilibrium is globally stable, the virus will persist in the host at a certain level. The effect of virulence and latency on infection is also discussed.

Branching habit and the allocation of reproductive resources in conifers.

PubMed

Leslie, Andrew B

2012-09-01

Correlated relationships between branch thickness, branch density, and twig and leaf size have been used extensively to study the evolution of plant canopy architecture, but fewer studies have explored the impact of these relationships on the allocation of reproductive resources. This study quantifies pollen cone production in conifers, which have similar basic reproductive biology but vary dramatically in branching habit, in order to test how differences in branch diameter influence pollen cone size and the density with which they are deployed in the canopy. Measurements of canopy branch density, the number of cones per branch and cone size were used to estimate the amount of pollen cone tissues produced by 16 species in three major conifer clades. The number of pollen grains produced was also estimated using direct counts from individual pollen cones. The total amount of pollen cone tissues in the conifer canopy varied little among species and clades, although vegetative traits such as branch thickness, branch density and pollen cone size varied over several orders of magnitude. However, branching habit controls the way these tissues are deployed: taxa with small branches produce small pollen cones at a high density, while taxa with large branches produce large cones relatively sparsely. Conifers appear to invest similar amounts of energy in pollen production independent of branching habit. However, similar associations between branch thickness, branch density and pollen cone size are seen across conifers, including members of living and extinct groups not directly studied here. This suggests that reproductive features relating to pollen cone size are in large part a function of the evolution of vegetative morphology and branching habit.

On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil.

PubMed

Massad, E; Burattini, M Nascimento; Khan, K; Struchiner, C J; Coutinho, F A B; Wilder-Smith, A

2017-08-01

The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.

Bluetongue Disease Risk Assessment Based on Observed and Projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. Vector Densities

PubMed Central

Brugger, Katharina; Rubel, Franz

2013-01-01

Bluetongue is an arboviral disease of ruminants causing significant economic losses. Our risk assessment is based on the epidemiological key parameter, the basic reproduction number. It is defined as the number of secondary cases caused by one primary case in a fully susceptible host population, in which values greater than one indicate the possibility, i.e., the risk, for a major disease outbreak. In the course of the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) outbreak in Europe in 2006 we developed such a risk assessment for the University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria. Basic reproduction numbers were calculated using a well-known formula for vector-borne diseases considering the population densities of hosts (cattle and small ruminants) and vectors (biting midges of the Culicoides obsoletus spp.) as well as temperature dependent rates. The latter comprise the biting and mortality rate of midges as well as the reciprocal of the extrinsic incubation period. Most important, but generally unknown, is the spatio-temporal distribution of the vector density. Therefore, we established a continuously operating daily monitoring to quantify the seasonal cycle of the vector population by a statistical model. We used cross-correlation maps and Poisson regression to describe vector densities by environmental temperature and precipitation. Our results comprise time series of observed and simulated Culicoides obsoletus spp. counts as well as basic reproduction numbers for the period 2009–2011. For a spatio-temporal risk assessment we projected our results from the location of Vienna to the entire region of Austria. We compiled both daily maps of vector densities and the basic reproduction numbers, respectively. Basic reproduction numbers above one were generally found between June and August except in the mountainous regions of the Alps. The highest values coincide with the locations of confirmed BTV cases. PMID:23560090

Dynamics of epidemic spreading model with drug-resistant variation on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Zhang, Wu; Dong, Jing

2018-03-01

Considering the influence of the virus' drug-resistant variation, a novel SIVRS (susceptible-infected-variant-recovered-susceptible) epidemic spreading model with variation characteristic on scale-free networks is proposed in this paper. By using the mean-field theory, the spreading dynamics of the model is analyzed in detail. Then, the basic reproductive number R0 and equilibriums are derived. Studies show that the existence of disease-free equilibrium is determined by the basic reproductive number R0. The relationships between the basic reproductive number R0, the variation characteristic and the topology of the underlying networks are studied in detail. Furthermore, our studies prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the permanence of epidemic and the global attractivity of endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the analytical results.

ASPECTS OF BASIC REPRODUCTIVE BIOLOGY AND ENDOCRINOLOGY IN THE FATHEAD MINNOW (PIMEPHALES PROMELAS)

EPA Science Inventory

The fathead minnow has been proposed as a model species for assessing the adverse effects of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) on reproduction and development. The purpose of these studies was to develop baseline reproductive biology and endocrinology data for this species to...

Social Reproduction and the Student Decision to Follow the Louisiana Career/Basic Core Diploma Path at a Large, Affluent High School in Northeastern Louisiana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whittock, Tammy

2013-01-01

Through this mixed-method study, the researcher investigated social reproduction in a student's decision to follow the Louisiana Career/Basic Core Diploma Path. In 2008-2009, Louisiana's cohort graduation rate was 67.3%, which was well below the national average of 75.5%, ranking Louisiana forty-sixth in the country. This rate led to the…

Reproductive endocrinology of llamas and alpacas.

PubMed

Bravo, P W

1994-07-01

The physiology of reproduction with emphasis in endocrinology of llamas and alpacas is addressed. Basic concepts of ovarian follicular dynamics, endocrine events associated with induction of ovulation, corpus luteum formation, pregnancy, parturition, postpartum interval, puberty, and sexual behavior on the female are reviewed. Pathologic conditions of the reproductive process are also reviewed.

Cholera in Haiti: Reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukandavire, Zindoga; Smith, David L.; Morris, J. Glenn, Jr.

2013-01-01

Cholera reappeared in Haiti in October, 2010 after decades of absence. Cases were first detected in Artibonite region and in the ensuing months the disease spread to every department in the country. The rate of increase in the number of cases at the start of epidemics provides valuable information about the basic reproductive number (). Quantitative analysis of such data gives useful information for planning and evaluating disease control interventions, including vaccination. Using a mathematical model, we fitted data on the cumulative number of reported hospitalized cholera cases in Haiti. varied by department, ranging from 1.06 to 2.63. At a national level, 46% vaccination coverage would result in an () <1, which would suppress transmission. In the current debate on the use of cholera vaccines in endemic and non-endemic regions, our results suggest that moderate cholera vaccine coverage would be an important element of disease control in Haiti.

Assessing age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Ryo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2017-06-05

Routine vaccination against measles in Japan started in 1978. Whereas measles elimination was verified in 2015, multiple chains of measles transmission were observed in 2016. We aimed to reconstruct the age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan so that future vaccination strategies can be elucidated. An epidemiological model was used to quantify the age-dependent immune fraction using datasets of vaccination coverage and seroepidemiological survey. The second dose was interpreted in two different scenarios, i.e., booster and random shots. The effective reproduction number, the average number of secondary cases generated by a single infected individual, and the age at infection were explored using the age-dependent transmission model and the next generation matrix. While the herd immunity threshold of measles likely ranges from 90% to 95%, assuming that the basic reproductive number ranges from 10 to 20, the estimated immune fraction in Japan was below those thresholds in 2016, despite the fact that the estimates were above 80% for all ages. If the second dose completely acted as the booster shot, a proportion immune above 90% was achieved only among those aged 5years or below in 2016. Alternatively, if the second dose was randomly distributed regardless of primary vaccination status, a proportion immune over 90% was achieved among those aged below 25years. The effective reproduction number was estimated to range from 1.50 to 3.01 and from 1.50 to 3.00, respectively, for scenarios 1 and 2 in 2016; if the current vaccination schedule were continued, the reproduction number is projected to range from 1.50 to 3.01 and 1.39 to 2.78, respectively, in 2025. Japan continues to be prone to imported cases of measles. Supplementary vaccination among adults aged 20-49years would be effective if the chains of transmission continue to be observed in that age group. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

External Source of Infection and Nutritional Efficiency Control Chaos in a Predator-Prey Model with Disease in the Predator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pada Das, Krishna; Roy, Prodip; Ghosh, Subhabrata; Maiti, Somnath

This paper deals with an eco-epidemiological approach with disease circulating through the predator species. Disease circulation in the predator species can be possible by contact as well as by external sources. Here, we try to discuss the role of external source of infection along with nutritional value on system dynamics. To establish our findings, we have worked out the local and global stability analysis of the equilibrium points with Hopf bifurcation analysis associated with interior equilibrium point. The ecological consequence by ecological basic reproduction number as well as the disease basic reproduction number or basic reproductive ratio are obtained and we have analyzed the community structure of the particular system with the help of ecological and disease basic reproduction numbers. Further we pay attention to the chaotic dynamics which is produced by disease circulating in predator species by contact. Our numerical simulations reveal that eco-epidemiological system without external source of infection induced chaotic dynamics for increasing force of infection due to contact, whereas in the presence of external source of infection, it exhibits stable solution. It is also observed that nutritional value can prevent chaotic dynamics. We conclude that chaotic dynamics can be controlled by the external source of infection as well as nutritional value. We apply basic tools of nonlinear dynamics such as Poincare section and maximum Lyapunov exponent to investigate chaotic behavior of the system.

Floral ontogeny and gene protein localization rules out euanthial interpretation of reproductive units in Lepironia (Cyperaceae, Mapanioideae, Chrysitricheae)

PubMed Central

Prychid, C. J.; Bruhl, J. J.

2013-01-01

Background and Aims In the sedge subfamily Mapanioideae there are considerable discrepancies between the standard trimerous monocot floral architecture expected and the complex floral and inflorescence morphologies seen. Decades of debate about whether the basic reproductive units are single flowers or pseudanthia have not resolved the question. This paper evaluates current knowledge about Mapaniid reproductive structures and presents an ontogenetic study of the Mapaniid genus Lepironia with the first floral protein expression maps for the family, localizing the products of the APETALA1/FRUITFULL-like (AP1/FUL) MADS-box genes with the aim of shedding light on this conundrum. Methods A range of reproductive developmental stages, from spikelet primordia through to infructescence material, were processed for anatomical and immunohistochemical analyses. Key Results The basic reproductive unit is subtended by a bract and possesses two prophyll-like structures, the first organs to be initiated on the primordium, which grow rapidly, enclosing two whorls of initiating leaf-like structures with intervening stamens and a central gynoecium, formed from an annular primordium. The subtending bract and prophyll-like structures possess very different morphologies from that of the internal leaf-like structures and do not show AP1/FUL-like protein localization, which is otherwise strongly localized in the internal leaf-like structures, stamens and gynoecia. Conclusions Results support the synanthial hypothesis as the evolutionary origin of the reproductive unit. Thus, the basic reproductive unit in Lepironia is an extremely condensed pseudanthium, of staminate flowers surrounding a central terminal pistillate female flower. Early in development the reproductive unit becomes enclosed by a split-prophyll, with the whole structure subtended by a bract. PMID:23723258

Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013.

PubMed

Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K; Beisembayev, Kanatzhan K; Кorennoy, Fedor I; Yessembekova, Gulzhan N; Кushubaev, Dosym B; Кadyrov, Ablaikhan S

2016-05-31

This study estimated the basic reproductive ratio of rabies at the population level in wild animals (foxes), farm animals (cattle, camels, horses, sheep) and what we classified as domestic animals (cats, dogs) in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). It also aimed at forecasting the possible number of new outbreaks in case of emergence of the disease in new territories. We considered cases of rabies in animals in RK from 2010 to 2013, recorded by regional veterinary services. Statistically significant space-time clusters of outbreaks in three subpopulations were detected by means of Kulldorff Scan statistics. Theoretical curves were then fitted to epidemiological data within each cluster assuming exponential initial growth, which was followed up by calculation of the basic reproductive ratio R0. For farm animals, the value of R0 was 1.62 (1.11-2.26) and for wild animals 1.84 (1.08- 3.13), while it was close to 1 for domestic animals. Using the values obtained, an initial phase of possible epidemic was simulated in order to predict the expected number of secondary cases if the disease were introduced into a new area. The possible number of new cases for 20 weeks was estimated at 5 (1-16) for farm animals, 17 (1-113) for wild animals and about 1 in the category of domestic animals. These results have been used to produce set of recommendations for organising of preventive and contra-epizootic measures against rabies expected to be applied by state veterinarian services.

An Epidemiological Approach to Terrorism

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

poliomyelitis. Joyner and Rogers (2001) and Aylward et al. (1999) discuss this effort and the particular characteristics of the poliovirus that render it a...R0, σ, and R Within an epidemic or endemic SIR (MSEIR, or SEIR) model, R0, the basic reproduction number, is the first threshold number to consider...R/N) R0 Basic reproduction number (or rate) σ Contact number R Replacement number t Time, an independent variable β Average number of adequate

[Basic reproduction rate and its application in schistosomiasis].

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing

2013-02-01

A key parameter in the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis, namely basic reproduction rate (R0) is introduced in this paper, as well as its epidemiological significance, formulas in mathematical models of schistosomiasis transmission dynamics, and its application in the evaluation of schistosomiasis control measures. It suggests that the studies on transmission thresholds such as R0 are of important theoretical guiding significance to the establishment of a schistosomiasis elimination standard in China.

Influence of human behavior on cholera dynamics

PubMed Central

Wang, Xueying; Gao, Daozhou; Wang, Jin

2015-01-01

This paper is devoted to studying the impact of human behavior on cholera infection. We start with a cholera ordinary differential equation (ODE) model that incorporates human behavior via modeling disease prevalence dependent contact rates for direct and indirect transmissions and infectious host shedding. Local and global dynamics of the model are analyzed with respect to the basic reproduction number. We then extend the ODE model to a reaction-convection-diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) model that accounts for the movement of both human hosts and bacteria. Particularly, we investigate the cholera spreading speed by analyzing the traveling wave solutions of the PDE model, and disease threshold dynamics by numerically evaluating the basic reproduction number of the PDE model. Our results show that human behavior can reduce (a) the endemic and epidemic levels, (b) cholera spreading speeds and (c) the risk of infection (characterized by the basic reproduction number). PMID:26119824

Effects of human and mosquito migrations on the dynamical behavior of the spread of malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beay, Lazarus Kalvein; Kasbawati, Toaha, Syamsuddin

2017-03-01

Malaria is one of infectious diseases which become the main public health problem especially in Indonesia. Mathematically, the spread of malaria can be modeled to predict the outbreak of the disease. This research studies about mathematical model of the spread of malaria which takes into consideration the migration of human and mosquito populations. By determining basic reproduction number of the model, we analyze effects of migration parameter with respect to the reduction of malaria outbreak. Sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number shows that mosquito migration has greater effect in reducing the outbreak of malaria compared with human migration. Basic reproduction number of the model is monotonically decreasing as mosquito migration increasing. We then confirm the analytic result by doing numerical simulation. The results show that migrations in human and mosquito populations have big influences in eliminating and eradicating the disease from the system.

Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication

PubMed Central

Mitjà, Oriol; Fitzpatrick, Christopher; Asiedu, Kingsley; Solomon, Anthony W.; Mabey, David C.W.; Funk, Sebastian

2017-01-01

Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R0]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. To have 80% probability of achieving eradication, 8 rounds of treatment with 80% coverage were required at low estimates of R0 (1.45). This requirement increased to 95% at high estimates of R0 (2.47). Extending the treatment interval to 12 months increased requirements at all estimates of R0. At high estimates of R0 with 12 monthly rounds of treatment, no combination of variables achieved eradication. Models should be used to guide the scale-up of yaws eradication. PMID:27983500

Branching habit and the allocation of reproductive resources in conifers

PubMed Central

Leslie, Andrew B.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Correlated relationships between branch thickness, branch density, and twig and leaf size have been used extensively to study the evolution of plant canopy architecture, but fewer studies have explored the impact of these relationships on the allocation of reproductive resources. This study quantifies pollen cone production in conifers, which have similar basic reproductive biology but vary dramatically in branching habit, in order to test how differences in branch diameter influence pollen cone size and the density with which they are deployed in the canopy. Methods Measurements of canopy branch density, the number of cones per branch and cone size were used to estimate the amount of pollen cone tissues produced by 16 species in three major conifer clades. The number of pollen grains produced was also estimated using direct counts from individual pollen cones. Key Results The total amount of pollen cone tissues in the conifer canopy varied little among species and clades, although vegetative traits such as branch thickness, branch density and pollen cone size varied over several orders of magnitude. However, branching habit controls the way these tissues are deployed: taxa with small branches produce small pollen cones at a high density, while taxa with large branches produce large cones relatively sparsely. Conclusions Conifers appear to invest similar amounts of energy in pollen production independent of branching habit. However, similar associations between branch thickness, branch density and pollen cone size are seen across conifers, including members of living and extinct groups not directly studied here. This suggests that reproductive features relating to pollen cone size are in large part a function of the evolution of vegetative morphology and branching habit. PMID:22782240

Measuring the impact of air pollution on respiratory infection risk in China.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Yan, Qinling; Shi, Wei; Wang, Xia; Sun, Xiaodan; Yu, Pengbo; Wu, Jianhong; Xiao, Yanni

2018-01-01

China is now experiencing major public health challenges caused by air pollution. Few studies have quantified the dynamics of air pollution and its impact on the risk of respiratory infection. We conducted an integrated data analysis to quantify the association among air quality index (AQI), meteorological variables and respiratory infection risk in Shaanxi province of China in the period of November 15th, 2010 to November 14th, 2016. Our analysis illustrated a statistically significantly positive correlation between the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and AQI, and the respiratory infection risk has increased progressively with increased AQI with a time lag of 0-3 days. We also developed mathematical models for the AQI trend and respiratory infection dynamics, incorporating AQI-dependent incidence and AQI-based behaviour change interventions. Our combined data and modelling analysis estimated the basic reproduction number for the respiratory infection during the studying period to be 2.4076, higher than the basic reproduction number of the 2009 pandemic influenza in the same province. Our modelling-based simulations concluded that, in terms of respiratory infection risk reduction, the persistent control of emission in the China's blue-sky programme is much more effective than substantial social-economic interventions implemented only during the smog days. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High reproduction number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in nosocomial outbreaks: mathematical modelling in Saudi Arabia and South Korea.

PubMed

Choi, S; Jung, E; Choi, B Y; Hur, Y J; Ki, M

2018-06-01

Effective countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases require an understanding of transmission rate and basic reproduction number (R 0 ). R 0 for severe acute respiratory syndrome is generally considered to be >1, whereas that for Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is considered to be <1. However, this does not explain the large-scale outbreaks of MERS that occurred in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and South Korean hospitals. To estimate R 0 in nosocomial outbreaks of MERS. R 0 was estimated using the incidence decay with an exponential adjustment model. The KSA and Korean outbreaks were compared using a line listing of MERS cases compiled using publicly available sources. Serial intervals to estimate R 0 were assumed to be six to eight days. Study parameters [R 0 and countermeasures (d)] were estimated by fitting a model to the cumulative incidence epidemic curves using Matlab. The estimated R 0 in Korea was 3.9 in the best-fit model, with a serial interval of six days. The first outbreak cluster in a hospital in Pyeongtaek had an R 0 of 4.04, and the largest outbreak cluster in a hospital in Samsung had an R 0 of 5.0. Assuming a six-day serial interval, the KSA outbreaks in Jeddah and Riyadh had R 0 values of 3.9 and 1.9, respectively. R 0 for the nosocomial MERS outbreaks in KSA and South Korea was estimated to be in the range of 2-5, which is significantly higher than the previous estimate of <1. Therefore, more comprehensive countermeasures are needed to address these infections. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reproduction in the endangered African wild dog: basic physiology, reproductive suppression and possible benefits of artificial insemination.

PubMed

Van den Berghe, F; Paris, D B B P; Van Soom, A; Rijsselaere, T; Van der Weyde, L; Bertschinger, H J; Paris, M C J

2012-07-01

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) is an endangered exotic canid with less than 5500 animals remaining in the wild. Despite numerous strategies to conserve this species, numbers of free-living animals are in decline. It is a highly social species with a complex pack structure: separate male and female dominant hierarchies with, typically, participation of subdominant adults in the rearing of the dominant breeding pairs' pups. Basic reproductive knowledge is largely missing in this species, with only limited information available on the profile of reproductive hormones, based on non-invasive endocrine monitoring. The dominant or alpha male and female are reproductively active and the subdominants are generally reproductively suppressed. However, the occasional production of litters by subdominant females and evidence of multiple paternity within litters suggests that fertility of subordinates is not completely inhibited. In this respect, there are still considerable gaps in our knowledge about the mechanisms governing reproduction and reproductive suppression in African wild dogs, particularly the influence of dominance and pack structure on both male and female fertility. Given concerns over the long-term survival of this species, further research in this area is essential to provide valuable information for their captive breeding and conservation. Reproductive information can also be applied to the development of Assisted Reproductive Techniques for this species; the utility of which in African wild dog conservation is also discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain.

PubMed

Chis Ster, Irina; Dodd, Peter J; Ferguson, Neil M

2012-08-01

This paper uses statistical and mathematical models to examine the potential impact of within-farm transmission dynamics on the spread of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Great Britain. We partly parameterize a simple within farm transmission model using data from experimental studies of FMD pathogenesis, embed this model within an existing between-farm transmission model, and then estimate unknown parameters (such as the species-specific within-farm reproduction number) from the 2001 epidemic case data using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. If the probability of detecting an infected premises depends on farm size and species mix then the within-farm species specific basic reproduction ratios for baseline models are estimated to be 21 (16, 25) and 14 (10, 19) for cattle and sheep, respectively. Alternatively, if detection is independent of farm size, then the corresponding estimates are 49 (41, 61) and 10 (1.4, 21). Both model variants predict that the average fraction of total farm infectiousness accumulated prior to detection of infection on an IP is about 30-50% in cattle or mixed farms. The corresponding estimate for sheep farms depended more on the detection model, being 65-80% if detection was linked to the farms' characteristics, but only 25% if not. We highlighted evidence which reinforces the role of within-farm dynamics in contributing to the long tail of the 2001 epidemic. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GENDER BASED DIFFERENCES IN ENDOCRINE AND REPRODUCTIVE TOXICITY

EPA Science Inventory

Basic differences in male versus female reproductive physiology lead to differentials in their respective susceptibilities to chemical insult as evidenced by a variety of observations. As individuals undergo maturation from prenatal sex differentiation through pubertal developme...

Fern Gametophytes in Culture--A Simple System for Studying Plant Development and Reproduction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dyer, A. F.

1983-01-01

Discusses fern life cycle and basic techniques for culturing fern gametophytes in the classroom. Also discusses investigations into the reproductive biology of ferns and into the early development of gametophytes. (JN)

Estimation of genetic parameters of the productive and reproductive traits in Ethiopian Holstein using multi-trait models.

PubMed

Ayalew, Wondossen; Aliy, Mohammed; Negussie, Enyew

2017-11-01

This study estimated the genetic parameters for productive and reproductive traits. The data included production and reproduction records of animals that have calved between 1979 and 2013. The genetic parameters were estimated using multivariate mixed models (DMU) package, fitting univariate and multivariate mixed models with average information restricted maximum likelihood algorithm. The estimates of heritability for milk production traits from the first three lactation records were 0.03±0.03 for lactation length (LL), 0.17±0.04 for lactation milk yield (LMY), and 0.15±0.04 for 305 days milk yield (305-d MY). For reproductive traits the heritability estimates were, 0.09±0.03 for days open (DO), 0.11±0.04 for calving interval (CI), and 0.47±0.06 for age at first calving (AFC). The repeatability estimates for production traits were 0.12±0.02, for LL, 0.39±0.02 for LMY, and 0.25±0.02 for 305-d MY. For reproductive traits the estimates of repeatability were 0.19±0.02 for DO, and to 0.23±0.02 for CI. The phenotypic correlations between production and reproduction traits ranged from 0.08±0.04 for LL and AFC to 0.42±0.02 for LL and DO. The genetic correlation among production traits were generally high (>0.7) and between reproductive traits the estimates ranged from 0.06±0.13 for AFC and DO to 0.99±0.01 between CI and DO. Genetic correlations of productive traits with reproductive traits were ranged from -0.02 to 0.99. The high heritability estimates observed for AFC indicated that reasonable genetic improvement for this trait might be possible through selection. The h2 and r estimates for reproductive traits were slightly different from single versus multi-trait analyses of reproductive traits with production traits. As single-trait method is biased due to selection on milk yield, a multi-trait evaluation of fertility with milk yield is recommended.

Population-level differences in disease transmission: A Bayesian analysis of multiple smallpox epidemics

PubMed Central

Elderd, Bret D.; Dwyer, Greg; Dukic, Vanja

2013-01-01

Estimates of a disease’s basic reproductive rate R0 play a central role in understanding outbreaks and planning intervention strategies. In many calculations of R0, a simplifying assumption is that different host populations have effectively identical transmission rates. This assumption can lead to an underestimate of the overall uncertainty associated with R0, which, due to the non-linearity of epidemic processes, may result in a mis-estimate of epidemic intensity and miscalculated expenditures associated with public-health interventions. In this paper, we utilize a Bayesian method for quantifying the overall uncertainty arising from differences in population-specific basic reproductive rates. Using this method, we fit spatial and non-spatial susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) models to a series of 13 smallpox outbreaks. Five outbreaks occurred in populations that had been previously exposed to smallpox, while the remaining eight occurred in Native-American populations that were naïve to the disease at the time. The Native-American outbreaks were close in a spatial and temporal sense. Using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), we show that the best model includes population-specific R0 values. These differences in R0 values may, in part, be due to differences in genetic background, social structure, or food and water availability. As a result of these inter-population differences, the overall uncertainty associated with the “population average” value of smallpox R0 is larger, a finding that can have important consequences for controlling epidemics. In general, Bayesian hierarchical models are able to properly account for the uncertainty associated with multiple epidemics, provide a clearer understanding of variability in epidemic dynamics, and yield a better assessment of the range of potential risks and consequences that decision makers face. PMID:24021521

Reproductive Toxicology Testing with EDCS

EPA Science Inventory

An introduction to reproductive toxicology: the basic approaches to testing chemicals for adverse effects using multigenerational studies with rats and how the regulatory agencies used the data in risk assessments. Case studies were presented of how endocrine or genomic data were...

Modeling the Geographic Spread of Rabies in China

PubMed Central

Chen, Jing; Zou, Lan; Jin, Zhen; Ruan, Shigui

2015-01-01

In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance. PMID:26020234

"When You're a Baby You Don't Have Puberty": Understanding of Puberty and Human Reproduction in Late Childhood and Early Adolescence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurwitz, Lisa B.; Lauricella, Alexis R.; Hightower, Brianna; Sroka, Iris; Woodruff, Teresa K.; Wartella, Ellen

2017-01-01

Basic knowledge of human reproduction can help youth prepare for puberty and make later classes focused on advanced reproductive health topics manageable. With the intention of potentially informing the creation of learning materials, we conducted a needs assessment among children ages 7 to 12 in our suburban Chicago community to ascertain their…

A climate-based malaria model with the use of bed nets.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-07-01

Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) are among the most important and effective intervention measures against malaria. In order to investigate the impact of bed net use on disease control, we formulate a periodic vector-bias malaria model incorporating the juvenile stage of mosquitoes and the use of ITNs. We derive the vector reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] and the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text]. We show that the global dynamics of the model is completely determined by these two reproduction ratios. More precisely, the mosquito-free periodic solution is globally attractive if [Formula: see text]; the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive if [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]; and the model admits a unique positive periodic solution and it is globally attractive if [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we study the malaria transmission case in Port Harcourt, Nigeria. Our findings show that the use of ITNs has a positive effect on reducing [Formula: see text], and that malaria may be eliminated from this area if over 75% of the human population were to use ITNs. The simulation about the long term behavior of solutions has good agreement with the obtained analytic result. Moreover, we find that the ignorance of the vector-bias effect may result in underestimation of the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text]. Another notable result is that the infection risk would be underestimated if the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] of the time-averaged autonomous system were used.

Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014

PubMed Central

Lou, Pengwei; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Xueliang; Xu, Jiabo

2016-01-01

Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China. Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year. Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans. Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis. We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920–18242] around the summer of 2023. We also estimate the basic reproduction number R 0 = 2.5524 [95% CI: 2.5129–2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction number R 0 in terms of model parameters. Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic. PMID:27872852

AIDS and the future of reproductive freedom.

PubMed

Bayer, Ronald

1990-01-01

The specter of pediatric AIDS fundamentally challenges elements of the liberal ideological basis of women's reproductive freedom. Many public health officials hold that preventing transmission of HIV from mother to fetus requires efforts to discourage pregnancy by infected women. For over two decades, however, genetic counselors, feminists, and medical ethicists have stressed the importance of nondirective counseling in the context of reproductive choice. The question now confronted by American society is whether it will be possible to frame an ideology of reproductive choice that recognizes the limits of liberal individualism, while preserving the basic features of reproductive freedom.

A new SEIR epidemic model with applications to the theory of eradication and control of diseases, and to the calculation of R0.

PubMed

Huang, Sen-Zhong

2008-09-01

We present a novel SEIR (susceptible-exposure-infective-recovered) model that is suitable for modeling the eradication of diseases by mass vaccination or control of diseases by case isolation combined with contact tracing, incorporating the vaccine efficacy or the control efficacy into the model. Moreover, relying on this novel SEIR model and some probabilistic arguments, we have found four formulas that are suitable for estimating the basic reproductive numbers R(0) in terms of the ratio of the mean infectious period to the mean latent period of a disease. The ranges of R(0) for most known diseases, that are calculated by our formulas, coincide very well with the values of R(0) estimated by the usual method of fitting the models to observed data.

Longitudinal progesterone profiles in baleen from female North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) match known calving history

PubMed Central

Hunt, Kathleen E.; Lysiak, Nadine S.; Moore, Michael J.; Rolland, Rosalind M.

2016-01-01

Reproduction of mysticete whales is difficult to monitor, and basic parameters, such as pregnancy rate and inter-calving interval, remain unknown for many populations. We hypothesized that baleen plates (keratinous strips that grow downward from the palate of mysticete whales) might record previous pregnancies, in the form of high-progesterone regions in the sections of baleen that grew while the whale was pregnant. To test this hypothesis, longitudinal baleen progesterone profiles from two adult female North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) that died as a result of ship strike were compared with dates of known pregnancies inferred from calf sightings and post-mortem data. We sampled a full-length baleen plate from each female at 4 cm intervals from base (newest baleen) to tip (oldest baleen), each interval representing ∼60 days of baleen growth, with high-progesterone areas then sampled at 2 or 1 cm intervals. Pulverized baleen powder was assayed for progesterone using enzyme immunoassay. The date of growth of each sampling location on the baleen plate was estimated based on the distance from the base of the plate and baleen growth rates derived from annual cycles of stable isotope ratios. Baleen progesterone profiles from both whales showed dramatic elevations (two orders of magnitude higher than baseline) in areas corresponding to known pregnancies. Baleen hormone analysis shows great potential for estimation of recent reproductive history, inter-calving interval and general reproductive biology in this species and, possibly, in other mysticete whales. PMID:27293762

Time Estimation and Performance on Reproduction Tasks in Subtypes of Children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salas, Carmen C.; Bauermeister, Jose J.; Barkley, Russell A.; Martinez, Jose V.; Cumba, Eduardo; Ramirez, Rafael R.; Reina, Graciela; Matos, Maribel

2005-01-01

This study compared Hispanic children (ages 7 to 11) with combined type (CT, n = 33) and inattentive type (IT, n = 21) attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and a control group (n = 25) on time-estimation and time-reproduction tasks. The ADHD groups showed larger errors in time reproduction but not in time estimation than the control…

Discrete virus infection model of hepatitis B virus.

PubMed

Zhang, Pengfei; Min, Lequan; Pian, Jianwei

2015-01-01

In 1996 Nowak and his colleagues proposed a differential equation virus infection model, which has been widely applied in the study for the dynamics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Biological dynamics may be described more practically by discrete events rather than continuous ones. Using discrete systems to describe biological dynamics should be reasonable. Based on one revised Nowak et al's virus infection model, this study introduces a discrete virus infection model (DVIM). Two equilibriums of this model, E1 and E2, represents infection free and infection persistent, respectively. Similar to the case of the basic virus infection model, this study deduces a basic virus reproductive number R0 independing on the number of total cells of an infected target organ. A proposed theorem proves that if the basic virus reproductive number R0<1 then the virus free equilibrium E1 is locally stable. The DVIM is more reasonable than an abstract discrete susceptible-infected-recovered model (SIRS) whose basic virus reproductive number R0 is relevant to the number of total cells of the infected target organ. As an application, this study models the clinic HBV DNA data of a patient who was accepted via anti-HBV infection therapy with drug lamivudine. The results show that the numerical simulation is good in agreement with the clinic data.

A survey of basic reproductive ratios in vector-borne disease transmission modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soewono, E.; Aldila, D.

2015-03-01

Vector-borne diseases are commonly known in tropical and subtropical countries. These diseases have contributed to more than 10% of world infectious disease cases. Among the vectors responsible for transmitting the diseases are mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, flies, bugs and worms. Several of the diseases are known to contribute to the increasing threat to human health such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, chikungunya, west nile fever, yellow fever, encephalistis, and anthrax. It is necessary to understand the real process of infection, factors which contribute to the complication of the transmission in order to come up with a good and sound mathematical model. Although it is not easy to simulate the real transmission process of the infection, we could say that almost all models have been developed from the already long known Host-Vector model. It constitutes the main transmission processes i.e. birth, death, infection and recovery. From this simple model, the basic concepts of Disease Free and Endemic Equilibria and Basic Reproductive Ratio can be well explained and understood. Theoretical, modeling, control and treatment aspects of disease transmission problems have then been developed for various related diseases. General construction as well as specific forms of basic reproductive ratios for vector-borne diseases are discusses here.

Dynamics analysis of epidemic and information spreading in overlay networks.

PubMed

Liu, Guirong; Liu, Zhimei; Jin, Zhen

2018-05-07

We establish an SIS-UAU model to present the dynamics of epidemic and information spreading in overlay networks. The overlay network is represented by two layers: one where the dynamics of the epidemic evolves and another where the information spreads. We theoretically derive the explicit formulas for the basic reproduction number of awareness R 0 a by analyzing the self-consistent equation and the basic reproduction number of disease R 0 d by using the next generation matrix. The formula of R 0 d shows that the effect of awareness can reduce the basic reproduction number of disease. In particular, when awareness does not affect epidemic spreading, R 0 d is shown to match the existing theoretical results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 d <1; and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 d >1. Finally, numerical simulations show that information plays a vital role in preventing and controlling disease and effectively reduces the final disease scale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

2007-03-01

The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

A generic model for a single strain mosquito-transmitted disease with memory on the host and the vector.

PubMed

Sardar, Tridip; Rana, Sourav; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi; Al-Khaled, Kamel; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

2015-05-01

In the present investigation, three mathematical models on a common single strain mosquito-transmitted diseases are considered. The first one is based on ordinary differential equations, and other two models are based on fractional order differential equations. The proposed models are validated using published monthly dengue incidence data from two provinces of Venezuela during the period 1999-2002. We estimate several parameters of these models like the order of the fractional derivatives (in case of two fractional order systems), the biting rate of mosquito, two probabilities of infection, mosquito recruitment and mortality rates, etc., from the data. The basic reproduction number, R0, for the ODE system is estimated using the data. For two fractional order systems, an upper bound for, R0, is derived and its value is obtained using the published data. The force of infection, and the effective reproduction number, R(t), for the three models are estimated using the data. Sensitivity analysis of the mosquito memory parameter with some important responses is worked out. We use Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to identify the best model among the three proposed models. It is observed that the model with memory in both the host, and the vector population provides a better agreement with epidemic data. Finally, we provide a control strategy for the vector-borne disease, dengue, using the memory of the host, and the vector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating breeding proportions and testing hypotheses about costs of reproduction with capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hinz, Robert L.; Link, William A.

1994-01-01

The proportion of animals in a population that breeds is an important determinant of population growth rate. Usual estimates of this quantity from field sampling data assume that the probability of appearing in the capture or count statistic is the same for animals that do and do not breed. A similar assumption is required by most existing methods used to test ecologically interesting hypotheses about reproductive costs using field sampling data. However, in many field sampling situations breeding and nonbreeding animals are likely to exhibit different probabilities of being seen or caught. In this paper, we propose the use of multistate capture-recapture models for these estimation and testing problems. This methodology permits a formal test of the hypothesis of equal capture/sighting probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding individuals. Two estimators of breeding proportion (and associated standard errors) are presented, one for the case of equal capture probabilities and one for the case of unequal capture probabilities. The multistate modeling framework also yields formal tests of hypotheses about reproductive costs to future reproduction or survival or both fitness components. The general methodology is illustrated using capture-recapture data on female meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. Resulting estimates of the proportion of reproductively active females showed strong seasonal variation, as expected, with low breeding proportions in midwinter. We found no evidence of reproductive costs extracted in subsequent survival or reproduction. We believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning breeding proportions and phenotypic reproductive costs.

Sampling to estimate population size and detect trends in Tricolored Blackbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meese, Robert; Yee, Julie L.; Holyoak, Marcel

2015-01-01

The Tricolored Blackbird (Agelaius tricolor) is a medium-sized passerine that nests in the largest colonies of any North American landbird since the extinction of the passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) over 100 years ago (Beedy and Hamilton 1999). The species has a restricted range that occurs almost exclusively within California, with only a few hundred birds scattered in small groups in Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and northwestern Baja California, Mexico (Beedy and Hamilton 1999). Tricolored Blackbirds are itinerant breeders (i.e., breed more than once per year in different locations) and use a wide variety of nesting substrates (Hamilton 1998), many of which are ephemeral. They are also insect dependent during the breeding season, and reproductive success is strongly correlated with relative insect abundance (Meese 2013). Researchers have noted for decades that Tricolored Blackbird’s insect prey are highly variable in space and time; Payne (1969), for example, described the species as a grasshopper follower because they are preferred food items, and high grasshopper abundance is often associated with high reproductive success (Payne 1969, Meese 2013). Thus, the species’ basic reproductive strategy is tied to rather infrequent periods of relatively high insect abundance in some locations followed by much longer periods of range -wide relatively low insect abundance and poor reproductive success. Of course, anthropogenic factors such as habitat loss and insecticide use may be at least partly responsible for these patterns (Hallman et al. 2014, Airola et al. 2014).

Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic.

PubMed

d'Albis, Hippolyte; Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle; Djemai, Elodie; Ducrot, Arnaud

2012-01-01

In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

A Crucial New Direction for International Family Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hosken, Fran P.

1984-01-01

Repressive attitudes toward female sexuality by Third World men and ignorance of the basic biology of the female reproductive system by Third World women have led to the failure of family planning efforts. Use of the "Universal Childbirth Picture Book," which illustrates the female reproductive system, is recommended. (IS)

Applying Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to simulate growth and bio-energetics of blue mussels under low seston conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosland, R.; Strand, Ø.; Alunno-Bruscia, M.; Bacher, C.; Strohmeier, T.

2009-08-01

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for simulation of growth and bioenergetics of blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis) has been tested in three low seston sites in southern Norway. The observations comprise four datasets from laboratory experiments (physiological and biometrical mussel data) and three datasets from in situ growth experiments (biometrical mussel data). Additional in situ data from commercial farms in southern Norway were used for estimation of biometrical relationships in the mussels. Three DEB parameters (shape coefficient, half saturation coefficient, and somatic maintenance rate coefficient) were estimated from experimental data, and the estimated parameters were complemented with parameter values from literature to establish a basic parameter set. Model simulations based on the basic parameter set and site specific environmental forcing matched fairly well with observations, but the model was not successful in simulating growth at the extreme low seston regimes in the laboratory experiments in which the long period of negative growth caused negative reproductive mass. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was moderately sensitive to changes in the parameter and initial conditions. The results show the robust properties of the DEB model as it manages to simulate mussel growth in several independent datasets from a common basic parameter set. However, the results also demonstrate limitations of Chl a as a food proxy for blue mussels and limitations of the DEB model to simulate long term starvation. Future work should aim at establishing better food proxies and improving the model formulations of the processes involved in food ingestion and assimilation. The current DEB model should also be elaborated to allow shrinking in the structural tissue in order to produce more realistic growth simulations during long periods of starvation.

Technology, Biopolitics, Rationalities and Choices: Recent Studies of Reproduction.

PubMed

Whittaker, Andrea

2015-01-01

New synergies across anthropology, science and technology studies (STS), legal studies and sociology, bring fresh theoretical perspectives to the study of reproduction. Recent works on reproduction trace some of the changing rationalities: from the tactics of feminist self-help health movements in 1970s and 1980s in the US, to the commercialized experience of pregnancy and the various configurations, policies and legalities addressing globalized genetic and assisted reproductive technologies. Reproductive decision-making is deeply entangled with neoliberalism, welfare reforms, racial and geographic disparities, economic stratification and cultural rationalities to produce inequalities. Studies of reproduction remain central to basic anthropological questions: what it means to be human, what constitutes life, how we live our lives, and how societies value particular lives.

[Comparison of Flu Outbreak Reporting Standards Based on Transmission Dynamics Model].

PubMed

Yang, Guo-jing; Yi, Qing-jie; Li, Qin; Zeng, Qing

2016-05-01

To compare the current two flu outbreak reporting standards for the purpose of better prevention and control of flu outbreaks. A susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model without interventions was set up first, followed by a model with interventions based on real situation. Simulated interventions were developed based on the two reporting standards, and evaluated by estimated duration of outbreaks, cumulative new cases, cumulative morbidity rates, decline in percentage of morbidity rates, and cumulative secondary cases. The basic reproductive number of the outbreak was estimated as 8. 2. The simulation produced similar results as the real situation. The effect of interventions based on reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) was better than that of interventions based on reporting standard two (30 accumulated new cases in a week). The reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) is more effective for prevention and control of flu outbreaks.

A mathematical model of Staphylococcus aureus control in dairy herds.

PubMed Central

Zadoks, R. N.; Allore, H. G.; Hagenaars, T. J.; Barkema, H. W.; Schukken, Y. H.

2002-01-01

An ordinary differential equation model was developed to simulate dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus mastitis. Data to estimate model parameters were obtained from an 18-month observational study in three commercial dairy herds. A deterministic simulation model was constructed to estimate values of the basic (R0) and effective (Rt) reproductive number in each herd, and to examine the effect of management on mastitis control. In all herds R0 was below the threshold value 1, indicating control of contagious transmission. Rt was higher than R0 because recovered individuals were more susceptible to infection than individuals without prior infection history. Disease dynamics in two herds were well described by the model. Treatment of subclinical mastitis and prevention of influx of infected individuals contributed to decrease of S. aureus prevalence. For one herd, the model failed to mimic field observations. Explanations for the discrepancy are given in a discussion of current knowledge and model assumptions. PMID:12403116

Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

PubMed

Guinat, C; Gubbins, S; Vergne, T; Gonzales, J L; Dixon, L; Pfeiffer, D U

2016-01-01

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

Estimating age-specific reproductive numbers-A comparison of methods.

PubMed

Moser, Carlee B; White, Laura F

2016-01-01

Large outbreaks, such as those caused by influenza, put a strain on resources necessary for their control. In particular, children have been shown to play a key role in influenza transmission during recent outbreaks, and targeted interventions, such as school closures, could positively impact the course of emerging epidemics. As an outbreak is unfolding, it is important to be able to estimate reproductive numbers that incorporate this heterogeneity and to use surveillance data that is routinely collected to more effectively target interventions and obtain an accurate understanding of transmission dynamics. There are a growing number of methods that estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers with limited data that build on methods assuming a homogenously mixing population. In this article, we introduce a new approach that is flexible and improves on many aspects of existing methods. We apply this method to influenza data from two outbreaks, the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in South Africa and Japan, to estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers and compare it to three other methods that also use existing data from social mixing surveys to quantify contact rates among different age groups. In this exercise, all estimates of the reproductive numbers for children exceeded the critical threshold of one and in most cases exceeded those of adults. We introduce a flexible new method to estimate reproductive numbers that describe heterogeneity in the population.

Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy

2018-03-01

Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.

Testing the limits of freedom of contract: the commercialization of reproductive materials and services.

PubMed

Trebilcock, M; Martin, M; Lawson, A; Lewis, P

1994-01-01

This article examines the cases for and against commercializing, or "commodifying," reproductive materials and services. Using a supply/demand third-party framework, three basic scenarios in which commercial-exchange relationships may be possible--exchange of gametes and zygotes, exchange of gestational services, and exchange of fetal material--and the major parties of interest, or stakeholders, are identified. The study sketches the liberal, essentialist, and radical contingency theories that shape the debate over the commercialization of reproductive materials and services. The article then attempts to derive some basic governing principles that reflect as much common ground as possible amongst these various normative perspectives, while recognizing that complete reconciliation is impossible. Taken together, these principles are designed to reflect a strategy of "constrained commodification," where commercialization or commodification, that is, financial remuneration, plays a relatively neutral role in the utilization of reproductive materials and services. In light of these principles, the article concludes by sketching legal and regulatory regimes with respect to the exchange of gametes and zygotes, gestational services, and fetal tissue.

Early Outbreak of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico Prior to Identification of pH1N1 Virus

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Ying-Hen; Ma, Stefan; Velasco Hernandez, Jorge X.; Lee, Vernon J.; Lim, Wei Yen

2011-01-01

Background In the aftermath of the global spread of 2009 influenza A (pH1N1) virus, still very little is known of the early stages of the outbreak in Mexico during the early months of the year, before the virus was identified. Methodology/Main Findings We fit a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to the number of excess laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Mexico and Mexico City during the first 15 weeks in 2009 over the average influenza case number of the previous five baseline years of 2004-2008 during the same period to ascertain the turning point (or the peak incidence) of a wave of early influenza infections, and to estimate the transmissibility of the virus during these early months in terms of its basic reproduction number. The results indicate that there may have been an early epidemic in Mexico City as well as in all of Mexico during February/March. Based on excess influenza cases, the estimated basic reproduction number R0 for the early outbreak was 1.59 (0.55 to 2.62) for Mexico City during weeks 5–9, and 1.25 (0.76, 1.74) for all of Mexico during weeks 5–14. Conclusions We established the existence of an early epidemic in Mexico City and in all of Mexico during February/March utilizing the routine influenza surveillance data, although the location of seeding is unknown. Moreover, estimates of R0 as well as the time of peak incidence (the turning point) for Mexico City and all of Mexico indicate that the early epidemic in Mexico City in February/March had been more transmissible (larger R0) and peaked earlier than the rest of the country. Our conclusion lends support to the possibility that the virus could have already spread to other continents prior to the identification of the virus and the reporting of lab-confirmed pH1N1 cases in North America in April. PMID:21909366

REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS

PubMed Central

Goldstein, E.; Paur, K.; Fraser, C.; Kenah, E.; Wallinga, J.; Lipsitch, M.

2009-01-01

Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommodated by considering a community of households. Our study of transmission dynamics in a community of households emphasizes five types of reproductive numbers for the epidemic spread: household-to-household reproductive number, leaky vaccine-associated reproductive numbers, perfect vaccine reproductive number, growth rate reproductive number, and the individual reproductive number. Each of those carries different information about the transmission dynamics and the required control measures, and often some of those can be estimated from the data while others cannot. Simulations have shown that under certain scenarios there is an ordering for those reproductive numbers. We have proven a number of ordering inequalities under general assumptions about the individual infectiousness profiles. Those inequalities allow, for instance, to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and other control measures without knowing the various transmission parameters in the models. Along the way, we’ve also shown that in choosing between increasing vaccine efficacy and increasing coverage levels by the same factor, preference should go to efficacy. PMID:19559715

Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

PubMed

Bacaër, Nicolas

2009-10-01

This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

Mathematical model for Dengue with three states of infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hincapie, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan

2012-06-01

A mathematical model for dengue with three states of infection is proposed and analyzed. The model consists in a system of differential equations. The three states of infection are respectively asymptomatic, partially asymptomatic and fully asymptomatic. The model is analyzed using computer algebra software, specifically Maple, and the corresponding basic reproductive number and the epidemic threshold are computed. The resulting basic reproductive number is an algebraic synthesis of all epidemic parameters and it makes clear the possible control measures. The microscopic structure of the epidemic parameters is established using the quantum theory of the interactions between the atoms and radiation. In such approximation, the human individual is represented by an atom and the mosquitoes are represented by radiation. The force of infection from the mosquitoes to the humans is considered as the transition probability from the fundamental state of atom to excited states. The combination of computer algebra software and quantum theory provides a very complete formula for the basic reproductive number and the possible control measures tending to stop the propagation of the disease. It is claimed that such result may be important in military medicine and the proposed method can be applied to other vector-borne diseases.

Color reproduction system based on color appearance model and gamut mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Fang-Hsuan; Yang, Chih-Yuan

2000-06-01

By the progress of computer, computer peripherals such as color monitor and printer are often used to generate color image. However, cross media color reproduction by human perception is usually different. Basically, the influence factors are device calibration and characterization, viewing condition, device gamut and human psychology. In this thesis, a color reproduction system based on color appearance model and gamut mapping is proposed. It consists of four parts; device characterization, color management technique, color appearance model and gamut mapping.

Factors influencing territorial occupancy and reproductive success in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population.

PubMed

León-Ortega, Mario; Jiménez-Franco, María V; Martínez, José E; Calvo, José F

2017-01-01

Modelling territorial occupancy and reproductive success is a key issue for better understanding the population dynamics of territorial species. This study aimed to investigate these ecological processes in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population in south-eastern Spain during a seven-year period. A multi-season, multi-state modelling approach was followed to estimate the probabilities of occupancy and reproductive success in relation to previous state, time and habitat covariates, and accounting for imperfect detection. The best estimated models showed past breeding success in the territories to be the most important factor determining a high probability of reoccupation and reproductive success in the following year. In addition, alternative occupancy models suggested the positive influence of crops on the probability of territory occupation. By contrast, the best reproductive model revealed strong interannual variations in the rates of breeding success, which may be related to changes in the abundance of the European Rabbit, the main prey of the Eurasian Eagle-owl. Our models also estimated the probabilities of detecting the presence of owls in a given territory and the probability of detecting evidence of successful reproduction. Estimated detection probabilities were high throughout the breeding season, decreasing in time for unsuccessful breeders but increasing for successful breeders. The probability of detecting reproductive success increased with time, being close to one in the last survey. These results suggest that reproduction failure in the early stages of the breeding season is a determinant factor in the probability of detecting occupancy and reproductive success.

Factors influencing territorial occupancy and reproductive success in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population

PubMed Central

León-Ortega, Mario; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Martínez, José E.

2017-01-01

Modelling territorial occupancy and reproductive success is a key issue for better understanding the population dynamics of territorial species. This study aimed to investigate these ecological processes in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population in south-eastern Spain during a seven-year period. A multi-season, multi-state modelling approach was followed to estimate the probabilities of occupancy and reproductive success in relation to previous state, time and habitat covariates, and accounting for imperfect detection. The best estimated models showed past breeding success in the territories to be the most important factor determining a high probability of reoccupation and reproductive success in the following year. In addition, alternative occupancy models suggested the positive influence of crops on the probability of territory occupation. By contrast, the best reproductive model revealed strong interannual variations in the rates of breeding success, which may be related to changes in the abundance of the European Rabbit, the main prey of the Eurasian Eagle-owl. Our models also estimated the probabilities of detecting the presence of owls in a given territory and the probability of detecting evidence of successful reproduction. Estimated detection probabilities were high throughout the breeding season, decreasing in time for unsuccessful breeders but increasing for successful breeders. The probability of detecting reproductive success increased with time, being close to one in the last survey. These results suggest that reproduction failure in the early stages of the breeding season is a determinant factor in the probability of detecting occupancy and reproductive success. PMID:28399175

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-03-21

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner's Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual's death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation

PubMed Central

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-01-01

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner’s Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual’s death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. PMID:25637763

Strong propensity for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Vietnam: behavioural data and sexual network modelling.

PubMed

Bengtsson, Linus; Lu, Xin; Liljeros, Fredrik; Thanh, Hoang Huy; Thorson, Anna

2014-01-15

Survey data from men who have sex with men (MSM) in Asian cities indicate ongoing and drastic increases in HIV prevalence. It is unknown which behavioural factors are most important in driving these epidemics. We aimed to analyse detailed sexual behaviour data among MSM in Vietnam and to model HIV transmission using improved assumptions on sexual network structure. Vietnam. Internet-using men who had ever had sex (any type) with a man, aged ≥18 years and living in Vietnam. The study was cross-sectional, population-based and performed in 2012, using online respondent-driven sampling. The Internet-based survey instrument was completed by 982 participants, of which 857 were eligible. Questions included sociodemography and retrospective sexual behaviour, including number of unprotected anal sex (UAS) acts per partner. Estimated basic reproductive number over 3 months as a function of transmission risk per UAS act; frequency distributions of number of UAS partners and UAS acts during last 3 months. 36% (CI 32% to 42%) reported UAS at least once during the last 3 months. 36% (CI 32% to 41%) had ever taken an HIV test and received the result. UAS partner numbers and number of UAS acts were both highly skewed and positively correlated. Using a weighted configuration model, taking into account partner numbers, frequency of UAS and their correlations, we estimated the basic reproductive number (R0) over 3 months. The results indicated rapid transmission over a wide range of values of per-act transmissibility. Men with multiple partners had unexpectedly high UAS frequency per partner, paired with low HIV testing rates. The study highlights the importance of collecting data on frequency of UAS acts and indicates the need to rapidly scale-up HIV prevention services and testing opportunities for MSM in Vietnam.

Basic Drafting: Book One.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Ronald; And Others

The first of a two-book course in drafting, this manual consists of 13 topics in the following units: introduction to drafting, general safety, basic tools and lines, major equipment, applying for a job, media, lettering, reproduction, drawing sheet layout, architect's scale usage, civil engineer's scale usage, mechanical engineer's scale usage,…

Modelling memory colour region for preference colour reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Huanzhao; Luo, Ronnier

2010-01-01

Colour preference adjustment is an essential step for colour image enhancement and perceptual gamut mapping. In colour reproduction for pictorial images, properly shifting colours away from their colorimetric originals may produce more preferred colour reproduction result. Memory colours, as a portion of the colour regions for colour preference adjustment, are especially important for preference colour reproduction. Identifying memory colours or modelling the memory colour region is a basic step to study preferred memory colour enhancement. In this study, we first created gamut for each memory colour region represented as a convex hull, and then used the convex hull to guide mathematical modelling to formulate the colour region for colour enhancement.

Estimating differential reproductive success from nests of related individuals, with application to a study of the Mottled Sculpin, Cottus bairdi

Treesearch

Beatrix Jones; Gary D. Grossman; Daniel C.I. Walsh; Brady A. Porter; John C. Avise; Anthony C. Flumera

2007-01-01

Understanding how variation in reproductive success is related to demography is a critical component in understanding the life history of an organism. Parentage analysis using molecular markers can be used to estimate the reproductive success of different groups of individuals in natural populations. Previous models have been developed for cases where offspring are...

Estimating Pesticide Effects on Fecundity Rates of Wild Birds Using Current Laboratory Reproduction Tests

EPA Science Inventory

The manuscript reviews the issues concerning the use of results on pesticide effects from laboratory avian reproduction tests for estimating potential impacts of pesticides on fecundity rates in avian population models.

International spinal cord injury male sexual function and female sexual and reproductive function basic data sets-version 2.0.

PubMed

Alexander, Marcalee S; New, Peter W; Biering-Sørensen, Fin; Courtois, Frederique; Popolo, Giulio Del; Elliott, Stacy; Kiekens, Carlotte; Vogel, Lawrence; Previnaire, Jean G

2017-01-01

Data set review and modification. To describe modifications in the International Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Male Sexual Function Basic Data Set Version 2.0 and the International SCI Female Sexual and Reproductive Function Basic Data Set Version 2.0. International expert work group using on line communication. An international team of experts was compiled to review and revise the International SCI Male Sexual Function and Female Sexual and Reproductive Function Basic Data Sets Version 1.0. The group adapted Version 1.0 based upon review of published research, suggestions from concerned individuals and on line work group consensus. The revised data sets were then posted on the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) and American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) websites for 2 months for review. Subsequently, the data sets were approved by the ISCoS Scientific and Executive Committees and ASIA board of directors. The data sets were modified to a self-report format. They were reviewed for appropriateness for the pediatric age group and adapted to include a new variable to address the issue of sexual orientation. A clarification of the difference between the data sets and the autonomic standards was also developed. Sexuality is a continuously evolving topic. Modifications were needed to address this topic in a comprehensive fashion. It is recommended that Version 2.0 of these data sets are used for ongoing documentation of sexual status in the medical record and for documentation of sexual concerns during on-going research.

The Classroom Animal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Science and Children, 1986

1986-01-01

Provides background information on the earthworm. Reviews basic anatomical, behavioral, and reproductive facts. Offers suggestions for procuring, maintaining, and breeding colonies for classroom use. (ML)

Volterra-type Lyapunov functions for fractional-order epidemic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-De-León, Cruz

2015-07-01

In this paper we prove an elementary lemma which estimates fractional derivatives of Volterra-type Lyapunov functions in the sense Caputo when α ∈ (0, 1) . Moreover, by using this result, we study the uniform asymptotic stability of some Caputo-type epidemic systems with a pair of fractional-order differential equations. These epidemic systems are the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) models and Ross-Macdonald model for vector-borne diseases. We show that the unique endemic equilibrium is uniformly asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number is greater than one. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical simulations using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton scheme implemented in the fde12 Matlab function.

Somatic embryogenesis in forestry: A practical approach to cloning the best trees

Treesearch

Alex M. Diner

1999-01-01

Trees as well as humans have two basic cell types based on genetic content: somatic cells and gametic or reproductive cells. Somatic cells, such as skin cells or the sapwood cells in a tree, have at least twice (2n) the base set of chromosomes. The reproductive cells (gametic cells) have a single (n) set of chromosomes.

The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Sugimoto, Jonathan D; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Basta, Nicole E; Chao, Dennis L; Matrajt, Laura; Potter, Gail; Kenah, Eben; Longini, Ira M

2009-10-30

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.

Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock.

PubMed

MacKenzie, K; Bishop, S C

2001-08-01

A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.

Quantifying Transmission.

PubMed

Woolhouse, Mark

2017-07-01

Transmissibility is the defining characteristic of infectious diseases. Quantifying transmission matters for understanding infectious disease epidemiology and designing evidence-based disease control programs. Tracing individual transmission events can be achieved by epidemiological investigation coupled with pathogen typing or genome sequencing. Individual infectiousness can be estimated by measuring pathogen loads, but few studies have directly estimated the ability of infected hosts to transmit to uninfected hosts. Individuals' opportunities to transmit infection are dependent on behavioral and other risk factors relevant given the transmission route of the pathogen concerned. Transmission at the population level can be quantified through knowledge of risk factors in the population or phylogeographic analysis of pathogen sequence data. Mathematical model-based approaches require estimation of the per capita transmission rate and basic reproduction number, obtained by fitting models to case data and/or analysis of pathogen sequence data. Heterogeneities in infectiousness, contact behavior, and susceptibility can have substantial effects on the epidemiology of an infectious disease, so estimates of only mean values may be insufficient. For some pathogens, super-shedders (infected individuals who are highly infectious) and super-spreaders (individuals with more opportunities to transmit infection) may be important. Future work on quantifying transmission should involve integrated analyses of multiple data sources.

Analysis of recruitment and industrial human resources management for optimal productivity in the presence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

PubMed

Okosun, Kazeem O; Makinde, Oluwole D; Takaidza, Isaac

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the recruitment effects of susceptible and infected individuals in order to assess the productivity of an organizational labor force in the presence of HIV/AIDS with preventive and HAART treatment measures in enhancing the workforce output. We consider constant controls as well as time-dependent controls. In the constant control case, we calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The model is found to exhibit backward and Hopf bifurcations, implying that for the disease to be eradicated, the basic reproductive number must be below a critical value of less than one. We also investigate, by calculating sensitivity indices, the sensitivity of the basic reproductive number to the model's parameters. In the time-dependent control case, we use Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results. The cost-effectiveness analysis results show that optimal efforts on recruitment (HIV screening of applicants, etc.) is not the most cost-effective strategy to enhance productivity in the organizational labor force. Hence, to enhance employees' productivity, effective education programs and strict adherence to preventive measures should be promoted.

Interval Timing Deficits Assessed by Time Reproduction Dual Tasks as Cognitive Endophenotypes for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Hwang-Gu, Shoou-Lian; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen

2015-01-01

The literature has suggested timing processing as a potential endophenotype for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); however, whether the subjective internal clock speed presented by verbal estimation and limited attention capacity presented by time reproduction could be endophenotypes for ADHD is still unknown. We assessed 223 youths with DSM-IV ADHD (age range: 10-17 years), 105 unaffected siblings, and 84 typically developing (TD) youths using psychiatric interviews, intelligence tests, verbal estimation and time reproduction tasks (single task and simple and difficult dual tasks) at 5-second, 12-second, and 17-second intervals. We found that youths with ADHD tended to overestimate time in verbal estimation more than their unaffected siblings and TD youths, implying that fast subjective internal clock speed might be a characteristic of ADHD, rather than an endophenotype for ADHD. Youths with ADHD and their unaffected siblings were less precise in time reproduction dual tasks than TD youths. The magnitude of estimated errors in time reproduction was greater in youths with ADHD and their unaffected siblings than in TD youths, with an increased time interval at the 17-second interval and with increased task demands on both simple and difficult dual tasks versus the single task. Increased impaired time reproduction in dual tasks with increased intervals and task demands were shown in youths with ADHD and their unaffected siblings, suggesting that time reproduction deficits explained by limited attention capacity might be a useful endophenotype of ADHD. PMID:25992899

Model for disease dynamics of a waterborne pathogen on a random network.

PubMed

Li, Meili; Ma, Junling; van den Driessche, P

2015-10-01

A network epidemic SIWR model for cholera and other diseases that can be transmitted via the environment is developed and analyzed. The person-to-person contacts are modeled by a random contact network, and the contagious environment is modeled by an external node that connects to every individual. The model is adapted from the Miller network SIR model, and in the homogeneous mixing limit becomes the Tien and Earn deterministic cholera model without births and deaths. The dynamics of our model shows excellent agreement with stochastic simulations. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed, and on a Poisson network shown to be the sum of the basic reproduction numbers of the person-to-person and person-to-water-to-person transmission pathways. However, on other networks, [Formula: see text] depends nonlinearly on the transmission along the two pathways. Type reproduction numbers are computed and quantify measures to control the disease. Equations giving the final epidemic size are obtained.

The first success of glass eel production in the world: basic biology on fish reproduction advances new applied technology in aquaculture.

PubMed

Kagawa, Hirohiko; Tanaka, Hideki; Ohta, Hiromi; Unuma, Tatsuya; Nomura, Kazuharu

2005-04-01

The eel has long been esteemed as an important food fish in the world, especially in Japan, and has been used as an experimental fish for many fields of fish physiology. However, the decreases in eel resources have been a serious concern in recent years. The catches of glass eels as seedlings for aquaculture have shown a long-term decrease in both Europe and East Asia. To increase eel resources, the development of techniques for artificial induction of maturation and spawning and rearing their larvae have been eagerly desired. Recent progress of reproductive physiology of fish, especially mechanisms of oocyte maturation and ovulation in female and of spermatozoa maturation in male, facilitate to establish techniques for hormonal induction of maturation and spawning in sexually immature eels. With persistent effort to development of rearing techniques of larvae, we have first succeeded to produce glass eel. These applied techniques are may contribute to understand the basic reproductive physiology of the eel.

Quantification of bird-to-bird and bird-to-human infections during 2013 novel H7N9 avian influenza outbreak in China.

PubMed

Hsieh, Ying-Hen; Wu, Jianhong; Fang, Jian; Yang, Yong; Lou, Jie

2014-01-01

From February to May, 2013, 132 human avian influenza H7N9 cases were identified in China resulting in 37 deaths. We developed a novel, simple and effective compartmental modeling framework for transmissions among (wild and domestic) birds as well as from birds to human, to infer important epidemiological quantifiers, such as basic reproduction number for bird epidemic, bird-to-human infection rate and turning points of the epidemics, for the epidemic via human H7N9 case onset data and to acquire useful information regarding the bird-to-human transmission dynamics. Estimated basic reproduction number for infections among birds is 4.10 and the mean daily number of human infections per infected bird is 3.16*10-5 [3.08*10-5, 3.23*10-5]. The turning point of 2013 H7N9 epidemic is pinpointed at April 16 for bird infections and at April 9 for bird-to-human transmissions. Our result reveals very low level of bird-to-human infections, thus indicating minimal risk of widespread bird-to-human infections of H7N9 virus during the outbreak. Moreover, the turning point of the human epidemic, pinpointed at shortly after the implementation of full-scale control and intervention measures initiated in early April, further highlights the impact of timely actions on ending the outbreak. This is the first study where both the bird and human components of an avian influenza epidemic can be quantified using only the human case data.

Relative effects of survival and reproduction on the population dynamics of emperor geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Rockwell, Robert F.; Petersen, Margaret R.

1997-01-01

Populations of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in Alaska declined sometime between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s and have increased little since. To promote recovery of this species to former levels, managers need to know how much their perturbations of survival and/or reproduction would affect population growth rate (λ). We constructed an individual-based population model to evaluate the relative effect of altering mean values of various survival and reproductive parameters on λ and fall age structure (AS, defined as the proportion of juv), assuming additive rather than compensatory relations among parameters. Altering survival of adults had markedly greater relative effects on λ than did equally proportionate changes in either juvenile survival or reproductive parameters. We found the opposite pattern for relative effects on AS. Due to concerns about bias in the initial parameter estimates used in our model, we used 5 additional sets of parameter estimates with this model structure. We found that estimates of survival based on aerial survey data gathered each fall resulted in models that corresponded more closely to independent estimates of λ than did models that used mark-recapture estimates of survival. This disparity suggests that mark-recapture estimates of survival are biased low. To further explore how parameter estimates affected estimates of λ, we used values of survival and reproduction found in other goose species, and we examined the effect of an hypothesized correlation between an individual's clutch size and the subsequent survival of her young. The rank order of parameters in their relative effects on λ was consistent for all 6 parameter sets we examined. The observed variation in relative effects on λ among the 6 parameter sets is indicative of how relative effects on λ may vary among goose populations. With this knowledge of the relative effects of survival and reproductive parameters on λ, managers can make more informed decisions about which parameters to influence through management or to target for future study.

New Insights into Non-Avian Dinosaur Reproduction and Their Evolutionary and Ecological Implications: Linking Fossil Evidence to Allometries of Extant Close Relatives

PubMed Central

Werner, Jan; Griebeler, Eva Maria

2013-01-01

It has been hypothesized that a high reproductive output contributes to the unique gigantism in large dinosaur taxa. In order to infer more information on dinosaur reproduction, we established allometries between body mass and different reproductive traits (egg mass, clutch mass, annual clutch mass) for extant phylogenetic brackets (birds, crocodiles and tortoises) of extinct non-avian dinosaurs. Allometries were applied to nine non-avian dinosaur taxa (theropods, hadrosaurs, and sauropodomorphs) for which fossil estimates on relevant traits are currently available. We found that the reproductive traits of most dinosaurs conformed to similar-sized or scaled-up extant reptiles or birds. The reproductive traits of theropods, which are considered more bird-like, were indeed consistent with birds, while the traits of sauropodomorphs conformed better to reptiles. Reproductive traits of hadrosaurs corresponded to both reptiles and birds. Excluding Massospondylus carinatus , all dinosaurs studied had an intermediary egg to body mass relationship to reptiles and birds. In contrast, dinosaur clutch masses fitted with either the masses predicted from allometries of birds (theropods) or to the masses of reptiles (all other taxa). Theropods studied had probably one clutch per year. For sauropodomorphs and hadrosaurs, more than one clutch per year was predicted. Contrary to current hypotheses, large dinosaurs did not have exceptionally high annual egg numbers (AEN). Independent of the extant model, the estimated dinosaur AEN did not exceed 850 eggs (75,000 kg sauropod) for any of the taxa studied. This estimated maximum is probably an overestimation due to unrealistic assumptions. According to most AEN estimations, the dinosaurs studied laid less than 200 eggs per year. Only some AEN estimates obtained for medium to large sized sauropods were higher (200-400 eggs). Our results provide new (testable) hypotheses, especially for reproductive traits that are insufficiently documented or lacking from the fossil record. This contributes to the understanding of their evolution. PMID:23991160

New insights into non-avian dinosaur reproduction and their evolutionary and ecological implications: linking fossil evidence to allometries of extant close relatives.

PubMed

Werner, Jan; Griebeler, Eva Maria

2013-01-01

It has been hypothesized that a high reproductive output contributes to the unique gigantism in large dinosaur taxa. In order to infer more information on dinosaur reproduction, we established allometries between body mass and different reproductive traits (egg mass, clutch mass, annual clutch mass) for extant phylogenetic brackets (birds, crocodiles and tortoises) of extinct non-avian dinosaurs. Allometries were applied to nine non-avian dinosaur taxa (theropods, hadrosaurs, and sauropodomorphs) for which fossil estimates on relevant traits are currently available. We found that the reproductive traits of most dinosaurs conformed to similar-sized or scaled-up extant reptiles or birds. The reproductive traits of theropods, which are considered more bird-like, were indeed consistent with birds, while the traits of sauropodomorphs conformed better to reptiles. Reproductive traits of hadrosaurs corresponded to both reptiles and birds. Excluding Massospondyluscarinatus, all dinosaurs studied had an intermediary egg to body mass relationship to reptiles and birds. In contrast, dinosaur clutch masses fitted with either the masses predicted from allometries of birds (theropods) or to the masses of reptiles (all other taxa). Theropods studied had probably one clutch per year. For sauropodomorphs and hadrosaurs, more than one clutch per year was predicted. Contrary to current hypotheses, large dinosaurs did not have exceptionally high annual egg numbers (AEN). Independent of the extant model, the estimated dinosaur AEN did not exceed 850 eggs (75,000 kg sauropod) for any of the taxa studied. This estimated maximum is probably an overestimation due to unrealistic assumptions. According to most AEN estimations, the dinosaurs studied laid less than 200 eggs per year. Only some AEN estimates obtained for medium to large sized sauropods were higher (200-400 eggs). Our results provide new (testable) hypotheses, especially for reproductive traits that are insufficiently documented or lacking from the fossil record. This contributes to the understanding of their evolution.

Genetic covariance between components of male reproductive success: within-pair vs. extra-pair paternity in song sparrows

PubMed Central

Reid, J M; Arcese, P; Losdat, S

2014-01-01

The evolutionary trajectories of reproductive systems, including both male and female multiple mating and hence polygyny and polyandry, are expected to depend on the additive genetic variances and covariances in and among components of male reproductive success achieved through different reproductive tactics. However, genetic covariances among key components of male reproductive success have not been estimated in wild populations. We used comprehensive paternity data from socially monogamous but genetically polygynandrous song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to estimate additive genetic variance and covariance in the total number of offspring a male sired per year outside his social pairings (i.e. his total extra-pair reproductive success achieved through multiple mating) and his liability to sire offspring produced by his socially paired female (i.e. his success in defending within-pair paternity). Both components of male fitness showed nonzero additive genetic variance, and the estimated genetic covariance was positive, implying that males with high additive genetic value for extra-pair reproduction also have high additive genetic propensity to sire their socially paired female's offspring. There was consequently no evidence of a genetic or phenotypic trade-off between male within-pair paternity success and extra-pair reproductive success. Such positive genetic covariance might be expected to facilitate ongoing evolution of polygyny and could also shape the ongoing evolution of polyandry through indirect selection. PMID:25186454

[Human rights, maternal mortality and reproductive health].

PubMed

Cook, R J

1993-06-01

This work examines reproductive health within the framework of human rights assured by various international conventions, and analyzes the high maternal mortality rates of developing countries as a violation of several guaranteed rights. The 1st of 3 main sections of the report discusses the failure of governments to make protection of women's reproductive health a priority. Historically, women's principal role has been to bear children, and no recognition was given to the cost in health of accomplishing this duty. Women's reproductive health has created controversies in many traditional juridical systems because of its relation to human sexuality and morals. WHO has estimated that some 500,000 maternal deaths occur each year, with 25-50% resulting from unsafe abortions. The causes of maternal mortality often have their roots in the poor nutrition or inadequate health care provided to the woman long before the 1st pregnancy. Early and frequent pregnancies and heavy physical labor are among the many factors that contribute to maternal death. Laws to protect women's health may be lacking or may not be applied. For example, many countries have no legal minimum age for marriage. To combat the traditional negligence, a new viewpoint is emerging which views women's reproductive health as a condition in which childbearing occurs in a state of physical, mental, and social wellbeing. It implies that women have the capacity to reproduce, regulate their fertility, and enjoy sexual relations. Laws that deny access to reproductive health services or place obstacles or conditions in the way are coming under question as violations of basic human rights of women protected by international conventions. The main such convention discussed in this article is the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, although several other conventions are relevant to protecting women's reproductive health. If international law on human rights is to become truly universal, it is necessary to require that nations take preventive and curative measures to protect women's reproductive health and provide women with the capacity for reproductive self-determination. International human rights treaties require that national and international laws guarantee the rights of women to be free from discrimination; enjoy the rights to marriage and formation of a family; rights to private and family life; rights to information and education; and access to medical attention and to the benefits of scientific progress. The 2nd major section of this work discusses interpretations of these treaties using empirical evidence and feminist juridical principles. The 3rd section discusses international protection of women's reproductive rights, including the reporting system and specific categories of clearly differentiable rights.

Stress and reproductive failure: past notions, present insights and future directions

PubMed Central

Sheps, Sam; Clara Arck, Petra

2008-01-01

Problem Maternal stress perception is frequently alleged as a cause of infertility, miscarriages, late pregnancy complications or impaired fetal development. The purpose of the present review is to critically assess the biological and epidemiological evidence that considers the plausibility of a stress link to human reproductive failure. Methods All epidemiological studies published between 1980 and 2007 that tested the link between stress exposure and impaired reproductive success in humans were identified. Study outcomes were evaluated on the basis of how associations were predicted, tested and integrated with theories of etiology arising from recent scientific developments in the basic sciences. Further, published evidence arising from basic science research has been assessed in order to provide a mechanistic concept and biological evidence for the link between stress perception and reproductive success. Results Biological evidence points to an immune–endocrine disequilibrium in response to stress and describes a hierarchy of biological mediators involved in a stress trigger to reproductive failure. Epidemiological evidence presents positive correlations between various pregnancy failure outcomes with pre-conception negative life events and elevated daily urinary cortisol. Strikingly, a relatively new conceptual approach integrating the two strands of evidence suggests the programming of stress susceptibility in mother and fetus via a so-called pregnancy stress syndrome. Conclusions An increasing specificity of knowledge is available about the types and impact of biological and social pathways involved in maternal stress responses. The present evidence is sufficient to warrant a reconsideration of conventional views on the etiology of reproductive failure. Physicians and patients will benefit from the adaptation of this integrated evidence to daily clinical practice. PMID:18274890

Color Reproduction System Based on Color Appearance Model and Gamut Mapping

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-07-01

and Gamut Mapping DISTRIBUTION: Approved for public release, distribution unlimited This paper is part of the following report: TITLE: Input/Output...report: ADP011333 thru ADP011362 UNCLASSIFIED Color reproduction system based on color appearance model and gamut mapping Fang-Hsuan Cheng, Chih-Yuan...perception is usually different. Basically, the influence factors are device calibration and characterization, viewing condition, device gamut and human

Gonadosomatic index and fecundity of Lower Missouri and Middle Mississippi River endangered pallid sturgeon estimated using minimally invasive techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albers, J.L.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.J.

2013-01-01

Minimally invasive, non-lethal methods of ultrasonography were used to assess sex, egg diameter, fecundity, gonad volume, and gonadosomatic index, as well as endoscopy to visually assess the reproductive stage of Scaphirhynchus albus. Estimated mean egg diameters of 2.202 ± 0.187 mm and mean fecundity of 44 531 ± 23 940 eggs were similar to previous studies using invasive techniques. Mean S. albus gonadosomatic indices (GSI) for reproductive and non-reproductive females were 16.16 and 1.26%, respectively, while reproductive and non-reproductive male GSI were 2.00 and 0.43%, respectively. There was no relationship between hybrid status or capture location and GSI. Mean fecundity was 48.5% higher than hatchery spawn estimates. Fecundity increased as fork length increased but did so more dramatically in the upper river kilometers of the Missouri River. By examining multiple fish over multiple years, the reproductive cycle periodicity for hatchery female S. albus was found to be 2–4 years and river dwelling males 1–4 years. The use of ultrasonic and endoscopic methods in combination was shown to be helpful in tracking individual gonad characteristics over multi-year reproductive cycles.

Measuring reproductive health: review of community-based approaches to assessing morbidity.

PubMed Central

Sadana, R.

2000-01-01

This article begins by reviewing selected past approaches to estimating the prevalence of a range of morbidities through the use of household or community-based interview surveys in developed and developing countries. Subsequently, it reviews epidemiological studies that have used a range of methods to estimate the prevalence of reproductive morbidities. A detailed review of recent community or hospital based health interview validation studies that compare self-reported, clinical and laboratory measures is presented. Studies from Bangladesh, Bolivia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines and Turkey provide empirical evidence that self-reported morbidity and observed morbidity measure different phenomena and therefore different aspects of reproductive health and illness. Rather than estimating the prevalence of morbidity, interview-based surveys may provide useful information about the disability or burden associated with reproductive health and illness. PMID:10859858

Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

2017-02-01

In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

Structural and Practical Identifiability Analysis of Zika Epidemiological Models.

PubMed

Tuncer, Necibe; Marctheva, Maia; LaBarre, Brian; Payoute, Sabrina

2018-06-13

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic has caused an ongoing threat to global health security and spurred new investigations of the virus. Use of epidemiological models for arbovirus diseases can be a powerful tool to assist in prevention and control of the emerging disease. In this article, we introduce six models of ZIKV, beginning with a general vector-borne model and gradually including different transmission routes of ZIKV. These epidemiological models use various combinations of disease transmission (vector and direct) and infectious classes (asymptomatic and pregnant), with addition to loss of immunity being included. The disease-induced death rate is omitted from the models. We test the structural and practical identifiability of the models to find whether unknown model parameters can uniquely be determined. The models were fit to obtain time-series data of cumulative incidences and pregnant infections from the Florida Department of Health Daily Zika Update Reports. The average relative estimation errors (AREs) were computed from the Monte Carlo simulations to further analyze the identifiability of the models. We show that direct transmission rates are not practically identifiable; however, fixed recovery rates improve identifiability overall. We found ARE is low for each model (only slightly higher for those that account for a pregnant class) and help to confirm a reproduction number greater than one at the start of the Florida epidemic. Basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], is an epidemiologically important threshold value which gives the number of secondary cases generated by one infected individual in a totally susceptible population in duration of infectiousness. Elasticity of the reproduction numbers suggests that the mosquito-to-human ratio, mosquito life span and biting rate have the greatest potential for reducing the reproduction number of Zika, and therefore, corresponding control measures need to be focused on.

An assessment of mumps vaccine effectiveness by dose during an outbreak in Canada

PubMed Central

Deeks, Shelley L.; Lim, Gillian H.; Simpson, Mary Anne; Gagné, Louise; Gubbay, Jonathan; Kristjanson, Erik; Fung, Cecilia; Crowcroft, Natasha S.

2011-01-01

Background This investigation was done to assess vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine during an outbreak of mumps in Ontario. The level of coverage required to reach herd immunity and interrupt community transmission of mumps was also estimated. Methods Information on confirmed cases of mumps was retrieved from Ontario’s integrated Public Health Information System. Cases that occurred between Sept. 1, 2009, and June 10, 2010, were included. Selected health units supplied coverage data from the Ontario Immunization Record Information System. Vaccine effectiveness by dose was calculated using the screening method. The basic reproductive number (R0) represents the average number of new infections per case in a fully susceptile population, and R0 values of between 4 and 10 were considered for varying levels of vaccine effectiveness. Results A total of 134 confirmed cases of mumps were identified. Information on receipt of MMR vaccine was available for 114 (85.1%) cases, of whom 63 (55.3%) reported having received only one dose of vaccine; 32 (28.1%) reported having received two doses. Vaccine effectiveness of one dose of the MMR vaccine ranged from 49.2% to 81.6%, whereas vaccine effectiveness of two doses ranged from 66.3% to 88.0%. If we assume vaccine effectiveness of 85% for two doses of the vaccine, vaccine coverage of 88.2% and 98.0% would be needed to interrupt community transmission of mumps if the corresponding reproductive values were four and six. Interpretation Our estimates of vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of mumps-containing vaccine were consistent with the estimates that have been reported in other outbreaks. Outbreaks occurring in Ontario and elsewhere serve as a warning against complacency over vaccination programs. PMID:21576295

An assessment of mumps vaccine effectiveness by dose during an outbreak in Canada.

PubMed

Deeks, Shelley L; Lim, Gillian H; Simpson, Mary Anne; Gagné, Louise; Gubbay, Jonathan; Kristjanson, Erik; Fung, Cecilia; Crowcroft, Natasha S

2011-06-14

This investigation was done to assess vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine during an outbreak of mumps in Ontario. The level of coverage required to reach herd immunity and interrupt community transmission of mumps was also estimated. Information on confirmed cases of mumps was retrieved from Ontario's integrated Public Health Information System. Cases that occurred between Sept. 1, 2009, and June 10, 2010, were included. Selected health units supplied coverage data from the Ontario Immunization Record Information System. Vaccine effectiveness by dose was calculated using the screening method. The basic reproductive number (R(0)) represents the average number of new infections per case in a fully susceptible population, and R(0) values of between 4 and 10 were considered for varying levels of vaccine effectiveness. A total of 134 confirmed cases of mumps were identified. Information on receipt of MMR vaccine was available for 114 (85.1%) cases, of whom 63 (55.3%) reported having received only one dose of vaccine; 32 (28.1%) reported having received two doses. Vaccine effectiveness of one dose of the MMR vaccine ranged from 49.2% to 81.6%, whereas vaccine effectiveness of two doses ranged from 66.3% to 88.0%. If we assume vaccine effectiveness of 85% for two doses of the vaccine, vaccine coverage of 88.2% and 98.0% would be needed to interrupt community transmission of mumps if the corresponding reproductive values were four and six. Our estimates of vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of mumps-containing vaccine were consistent with the estimates that have been reported in other outbreaks. Outbreaks occurring in Ontario and elsewhere serve as a warning against complacency over vaccination programs.

Feline reproduction: problems and clinical challenges.

PubMed

Little, Susan

2011-07-01

Many veterinarians are closely involved with pedigree cat breeding and have become familiar with the unique characteristics of feline reproduction and breeding management. However, even veterinarians who do not have involvement with the pedigree cat fancy require a basic knowledge of the reproductive problems that are most likely to be encountered in working with non-breeding pet cats as well as stray and feral cats. This article reviews reproductive problems and challenges in both sexes - namely, ovarian remnant syndrome, mammary fibroadenomatous hyperplasia, congenital anomalies of the reproductive tract and pregnancy diagnosis in the queen, and cryptorchidism and low libido in the tom. Feline reproduction has not received the amount of investigation and attention that has been directed at canine reproduction. The result is that less data is available both for description of normal reproduction and for management of common problems. This article reviews most of the available evidence for the conditions discussed. Efforts should focus on making information more readily available to the practitioner and expanding the knowledge base in this important area of feline medicine. Copyright © 2011 ISFM and AAFP. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reproductive science as an essential component of conservation biology.

PubMed

Holt, William V; Brown, Janine L; Comizzoli, Pierre

2014-01-01

In this chapter we argue that reproductive science in its broadest sense has never been more important in terms of its value to conservation biology, which itself is a synthetic and multidisciplinary topic. Over recent years the place of reproductive science in wildlife conservation has developed massively across a wide and integrated range of cutting edge topics. We now have unprecedented insight into the way that environmental change affects basic reproductive functions such as ovulation, sperm production, pregnancy and embryo development through previously unsuspected influences such as epigenetic modulation of the genome. Environmental change in its broadest sense alters the quality of foodstuffs that all animals need for reproductive success, changes the synchrony between breeding seasons and reproductive events, perturbs gonadal and embryo development through the presence of pollutants in the environment and drives species to adapt their behaviour and phenotype. In this book we explore many aspects of reproductive science and present wide ranging and up to date accounts of the scientific and technological advances that are currently enabling reproductive science to support conservation biology.

Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data.

PubMed

Chowell, G; Diaz-Dueñas, P; Miller, J C; Alcazar-Velazco, A; Hyman, J M; Fenimore, P W; Castillo-Chavez, C

2007-08-01

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, thrives in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. A retrospective analysis of the 2002 dengue epidemic in Colima located on the Mexican central Pacific coast is carried out. We estimate the reproduction number from spatial epidemic data at the level of municipalities using two different methods: (1) Using a standard dengue epidemic model and assuming pure exponential initial epidemic growth and (2) Fitting a more realistic epidemic model to the initial phase of the dengue epidemic curve. Using Method I, we estimate an overall mean reproduction number of 3.09 (95% CI: 2.34,3.84) as well as local reproduction numbers whose values range from 1.24 (1.15,1.33) to 4.22 (2.90,5.54). Using Method II, the overall mean reproduction number is estimated to be 2.0 (1.75,2.23) and local reproduction numbers ranging from 0.49 (0.0,1.0) to 3.30 (1.63,4.97). Method I systematically overestimates the reproduction number relative to the refined Method II, and hence it would overestimate the intensity of interventions required for containment. Moreover, optimal intervention with defined resources demands different levels of locally tailored mitigation. Local epidemic peaks occur between the 24th and 35th week of the year, and correlate positively with the final local epidemic sizes (rho=0.92, P-value<0.001). Moreover, final local epidemic sizes are found to be linearly related to the local population size (P-value<0.001). This observation supports a roughly constant number of female mosquitoes per person across urban and rural regions.

Evaluation of a reproductive index to estimate grasshopper sparrow and eastern meadowlark reproductive success

USGS Publications Warehouse

Althoff, Donald P.; Gipson, P.S.; Pontius, J.S.; Japuntich, R.D.

2009-01-01

We compared an index of reproductive success based on breeding behavior to actual nest fates of grasshopper sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum) and eastern meadowlarks (Sturnella magna) on 12 plots (4-ha). Concordance of results between the two methods was 58% for grasshopper sparrows and 42% for eastern meadowlarks on a plot-by-plot basis. The indirect method yielded higher estimates of reproductive activity than nest monitoring for the balance of the plots,. There was little evidence that brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism influenced the estimates of reproductive success using the indirect method. We concluded that nests and about-to-fledge nestlings were missed during searches on some plots. It may be appropriate to use an indirect method to more efficiently survey territories and/or plots for species with hard-to-find nests or when monitoring large areas. Use of a reproductive index may be appropriate and more time-efficient than nest searching and monitoring for comparing management effects such as burning, grazing, haying, military training, and other localized disturbances that are likely to affect reproductive success of grasshopper sparrows and eastern meadowlarks. However, nest monitoring may be necessary for more precise estimates of productivity necessary for long-term monitoring. Nest monitoring results are also likely to allow for direct comparisons to results from other studies because the index method requires intimate knowledge of the species being evaluated - a factor that could lead to reduced precision because the experience level of technicians relying only on behavioral cues from study-to-study is likely to vary considerably.

Slow life histories in lizards living in the highlands of the Andes Mountains.

PubMed

Boretto, Jorgelina M; Cabezas-Cartes, Facundo; Ibargüengoytía, Nora R

2018-05-01

In the highlands of the Andes, lizards must balance precisely the allocation of energy for growth and reproduction to ensure their survival. We studied the individuals' age, growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and maximum life span of the viviparous lizard Phymaturus antofagastensis, endemic of cold and harsh environments at high altitudes in the Andes Mountains of Catamarca province, Argentina. We also estimated key life history parameters like reproductive effort, lifetime reproductive effort, net reproductive rate, and relative reproductive time in P. antofagastensis as well as in other Phymaturus to compare the interplay among growth, maintenance, and reproduction in species that live across a latitudinal and altitudinal gradient. We found that females and males of P. antofagastensis mature late in life, at 6-7 years old, respectively, and some individuals reached 20 years of age. Adult females showed higher specific growth rates than males and an adult life span of 9 years which, due to their biennial reproduction, results in an estimated production of only four litters in life. This species exhibits one of the highest lifetime reproductive efforts described for lizards. Our results indicate the existence of a tradeoff between the number of reproductive events throughout life and reproductive effort devoted to each event in Phymaturus, related to the phylogenetic group. The palluma group shows low reproductive effort but high number of reproductive events throughout their lives, whereas the patagonicus group shows high reproductive efforts in low number of reproductive events.

Estimation of genetic parameters for reproductive traits in alpacas.

PubMed

Cruz, A; Cervantes, I; Burgos, A; Morante, R; Gutiérrez, J P

2015-12-01

One of the main deficiencies affecting animal breeding programs in Peruvian alpacas is the low reproductive performance leading to low number of animals available to select from, decreasing strongly the selection intensity. Some reproductive traits could be improved by artificial selection, but very few information about genetic parameters exists for these traits in this specie. The aim of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for six reproductive traits in alpacas both in Suri (SU) and Huacaya (HU) ecotypes, as well as their genetic relationship with fiber and morphological traits. Dataset belonging to Pacomarca experimental farm collected between 2000 and 2014 was used. Number of records for age at first service (AFS), age at first calving (AFC), copulation time (CT), pregnancy diagnosis (PD), gestation length (GL), and calving interval (CI) were, respectively, 1704, 854, 19,770, 5874, 4290 and 934. Pedigree consisted of 7742 animals. Regarding reproductive traits, model of analysis included additive and residual random effects for all traits, and also permanent environmental effect for CT, PD, GL and CI traits, with color and year of recording as fixed effects for all the reproductive traits and also age at mating and sex of calf for GL trait. Estimated heritabilities, respectively for HU and SU were 0.19 and 0.09 for AFS, 0.45 and 0.59 for AFC, 0.04 and 0.05 for CT, 0.07 and 0.05 for PD, 0.12 and 0.20 for GL, and 0.14 and 0.09 for CI. Genetic correlations between them ranged from -0.96 to 0.70. No important genetic correlations were found between reproductive traits and fiber or morphological traits in HU. However, some moderate favorable genetic correlations were found between reproductive and either fiber and morphological traits in SU. According to estimated genetic correlations, some reproductive traits might be included as additional selection criteria in HU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Color reproduction of human skin by spectral reflectance using RGB images and the Wiener estimation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kiyomi; Miyazawa, Shota; Funamizu, Hideki; Yuasa, Tomonori; Nishidate, Izumi; Aizu, Yoshihisa

2017-04-01

Skin measurements based on spectral reflectance are widely studied in the fields of medical care and cosmetics. It has the advantage that several skin properties can be estimated in the non-invasive and non-contacting manner. In this study, we demonstrate the color reproduction of human skin by spectral reflectance using RGB images and the Wiener estimation method.

On the Reproduction Number of a Gut Microbiota Model.

PubMed

Barril, Carles; Calsina, Àngel; Ripoll, Jordi

2017-11-01

A spatially structured linear model of the growth of intestinal bacteria is analysed from two generational viewpoints. Firstly, the basic reproduction number associated with the bacterial population, i.e. the expected number of daughter cells per bacterium, is given explicitly in terms of biological parameters. Secondly, an alternative quantity is introduced based on the number of bacteria produced within the intestine by one bacterium originally in the external media. The latter depends on the parameters in a simpler way and provides more biological insight than the standard reproduction number, allowing the design of experimental procedures. Both quantities coincide and are equal to one at the extinction threshold, below which the bacterial population becomes extinct. Optimal values of both reproduction numbers are derived assuming parameter trade-offs.

Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses

PubMed Central

Boni, Maciej F; Manh, Bui Huu; Thai, Pham Quang; Farrar, Jeremy; Hien, Tran Tinh; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Van Kinh, Nguyen; Horby, Peter

2009-01-01

Background A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic. Methods We developed an age- and spatially-structured mathematical model in order to estimate the potential impact of pandemic H1N1 in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with animal influenza viruses. The model tracks human infection among domestic animal owners and non-owners and also estimates the numbers of animals may be exposed to infected humans. Results In the absence of effective interventions, the model predicts that the introduction of pandemic H1N1 will result in an epidemic that spreads to half of Vietnam's provinces within 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 45-86.5) and peaks 81 days after introduction (IQR: 62.5-121 days). For the current published range of the 2009 H1N1 influenza's basic reproductive number (1.2-3.1), we estimate a median of 410,000 cases among swine owners (IQR: 220,000-670,000) with 460,000 exposed swine (IQR: 260,000-740,000), 350,000 cases among chicken owners (IQR: 170,000-630,000) with 3.7 million exposed chickens (IQR: 1.9 M-6.4 M), and 51,000 cases among duck owners (IQR: 24,000 - 96,000), with 1.2 million exposed ducks (IQR: 0.6 M-2.1 M). The median number of overall human infections in Vietnam for this range of the basic reproductive number is 6.4 million (IQR: 4.4 M-8.0 M). Conclusion It is likely that, in the absence of effective interventions, the introduction of a novel H1N1 into a densely populated country such as Vietnam will result in a widespread epidemic. A large epidemic in a country with intense human-animal interaction and continued co-circulation of other seasonal and avian viruses would provide substantial opportunities for H1N1 to acquire new genes. PMID:19728864

Time Estimation Deficits in Childhood Mathematics Difficulties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurks, Petra P. M.; van Loosbroek, Erik

2014-01-01

Time perception has not been comprehensively examined in mathematics difficulties (MD). Therefore, verbal time estimation, production, and reproduction were tested in 13 individuals with MD and 16 healthy controls, matched for age, sex, and intellectual skills. Individuals with MD performed comparably to controls in time reproduction, but showed a…

Basic Methods for the Study of Reproductive Ecology of Fish in Aquaria.

PubMed

Fukuda, Kazuya; Sunobe, Tomoki

2017-07-20

Captive-rearing observations are valuable for revealing aspects of fish behavior and ecology when continuous field investigations are impossible. Here, a series of basic techniques are described to enable observations of the reproductive behavior of a wild-caught gobiid fish, as a model, kept in an aquarium. The method focuses on three steps: collection, transport, and observations of reproductive ecology of a substrate spawner. Essential aspects of live fish collection and transport are (1) preventing injury to the fish, and (2) careful acclimation to the aquarium. Preventing harm through injuries such as scratches or a sudden change of water pressure is imperative when collecting live fish, as any physical damage is likely to negatively affect the survival and later behavior of the fish. Careful acclimation to aquaria decreases the incidence death and mitigates the shock of transport. Observations during captive rearing include (1) the identification of individual fish and (2) monitoring spawned eggs without negative effects to the fish or eggs, thereby enabling detailed investigation of the study species' reproductive ecology. The subcutaneous injection of a visible implant elastomer (VIE) tag is a precise method for the subsequent identification of individual fish, and it can be used with a wide size range of fish, with minimal influence on their survival and behavior. If the study species is a substrate spawner that deposits adhesive eggs, an artificial nest site constructed from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe with the addition of a removable waterproof sheet will facilitate counting and monitoring the eggs, lessening the investigator's influence on the nest-holding and egg-guarding behavior of the fish. Although this basic method entails techniques that are seldom mentioned in detail in research articles, they are fundamental for undertaking experiments that require the captive rearing of a wild fish.

Modeling adverse environmental impacts on the reproductive system.

PubMed

Sussman, N B; Mazumdar, S; Mattison, D R

1999-03-01

When priority topics are being established for the study of women's health, it is generally agreed that one important area on which to focus research is reproduction. For example, increasing attention has been directed to environmental exposures that disrupt the endocrine system and alter reproduction. These concerns also suggest the need to give greater attention to the use of animal toxicologic testing to draw inferences about human reproductive risks. Successful reproduction requires multiple simultaneous and sequential processes in both the male and female, and the effect of toxicity on reproduction-related processes is time dependent. Currently, however, the risk assessment approach does not allow for the use of multiple processes or for considering the reproductive process response as a function of time. We discuss several issues in modeling exposure effects on reproductive function for risk assessment and present an overview of approaches for reproductive risk assessment. Recommendations are provided for an effective animal study design for determining reproductive risk that addresses optimization of the duration of dosing, observation of the effects of exposure on validated biomarkers, analysis of several biomarkers for complete characterization of the exposure on the underlying biologic processes, the need for longitudinally observed exposure effects, and a procedure for estimating human reproductive risk from the animal findings. An approach to characterizing reproductive toxicity to estimate the increased fertility risks in a dibromochloropropane (DBCP)-exposed human population is illustrated, using several reproductive biomarkers simultaneously from a longitudinal rabbit inhalation study of DBCP and an interspecies extrapolation method.

A multiscale model on hospital infections coupling macro and micro dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xia; Tang, Sanyi

2017-09-01

A multiscale model of hospital infections coupling the micro model of the growth of bacteria and the macro model describing the transmission of the bacteria among patients and health care workers (HCWs) was established to investigate the effects of antibiotic treatment on the transmission of the bacteria among patients and HCWs. The model was formulated by viewing the transmission rate from infected patients to HCWs and the shedding rate of bacteria from infected patients to the environment as saturated functions of the within-host bacterial load. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number of the coupled system were studied, and the global dynamics of the disease free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium were analyzed in detail by constructing two Lyapunov functions. Furthermore, effects of drug treatment in the within-host model on the basic reproduction number and the dynamics of the coupled model were studied by coupling a pharmacokinetics model with the within-host model. Sensitive analysis indicated that the growth rate of the bacteria, the maximum drug effect and the dosing interval are the three most sensitive parameters contributing to the basic reproduction number. Thus, adopting ;wonder; drugs to decrease the growth rate of the bacteria or to increase the drug's effect is the most effective measure but changing the dosage regime is also effective. A quantitative criterion of how to choose the best dosage regimen can also be obtained from numerical results.

Analysis of a general SIS model with infective vectors on the complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juang, Jonq; Liang, Yu-Hao

2015-11-01

A general SIS model with infective vectors on complex networks is studied in this paper. In particular, the model considers the linear combination of three possible routes of disease propagation between infected and susceptible individuals as well as two possible transmission types which describe how the susceptible vectors attack the infected individuals. A new technique based on the basic reproduction matrix is introduced to obtain the following results. First, necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the model through a unified approach. As a result, we are able to produce the exact basic reproduction number and the precise epidemic thresholds with respect to three spreading strengths, the curing strength or the immunization strength all at once. Second, the monotonicity of the basic reproduction number and the above mentioned epidemic thresholds with respect to all other parameters can be rigorously characterized. Finally, we are able to compare the effectiveness of various immunization strategies under the assumption that the number of persons getting vaccinated is the same for all strategies. In particular, we prove that in the scale-free networks, both targeted and acquaintance immunizations are more effective than uniform and active immunizations and that active immunization is the least effective strategy among those four. We are also able to determine how the vaccine should be used at minimum to control the outbreak of the disease.

Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

PubMed Central

Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M.

2016-01-01

Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The generalized-growth concept also provides us a compelling argument for the unexpected extinction of certain emerging disease outbreaks during the early ascending phase. Overall, our approach promotes a more reliable and data-driven characterization of the early epidemic phase, which is important for accurate estimation of the reproduction number and prediction of disease impact. PMID:27707909

Effects of life-history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile.

PubMed

Thompson, Denise M; Ligon, Day B; Patton, Jason C; Papeş, Monica

2017-04-01

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life-history traits essential for species' persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species' potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species' survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species' predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg-incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species' range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species' ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species' distributions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

“When You’re a Baby You Don’t Have Puberty”: Understanding of Puberty and Human Reproduction in Late Childhood and Early Adolescence

PubMed Central

Hurwitz, Lisa B.; Lauricella, Alexis R.; Hightower, Brianna; Sroka, Iris; Woodruff, Teresa K.; Wartella, Ellen

2017-01-01

Basic knowledge of human reproduction can help youth prepare for puberty and make later classes focused on advanced reproductive health topics manageable. With the intention of potentially informing the creation of learning materials, we conducted a needs assessment among children ages 7 to 12 in our suburban Chicago community to ascertain their current understanding of, and beliefs and misconceptions about, human reproduction, and to determine their needs for additional reproductive health education. We held qualitative focus group interviews with local children. Participants primarily reported learning about these topics from their parents prior to receiving school-based education in fifth grade. Their level of understanding was relatively low. They had little knowledge of internal sexual organs, expressed a range of beliefs about conception ranging from inaccurate to accurate but incomplete, and voiced concerns about transitioning into adolescence. This suggests a need for additional resources that provide comprehensible descriptions of reproductive health processes and mitigate puberty-related concerns. PMID:28931963

Gender issues in reproductive health: a review.

PubMed

Adinma, Echendu D; Adinma, Brian-D J I

2011-01-01

Gender, for its impact on virtually every contemporary life issue, can rightly be regarded as a foremost component of reproductive health. Reproductive health basically emphasises on people and their rights to sexuality, reproduction, and family planning, and the information to actualize these right, which has been inextricably linked to development at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo, Egypt, in 1994. Women's sexual and reproductive rights became recognised as universal human right, violations of which occur in some reproductive health areas including gender concerns. Gender inequality and inequity encompass gender based violence as well as gender discrimination which cuts across the life cycle of the woman; attitudes, religious and cultural practices of various nations; and issues related to employment, economy, politics, and development. The redress of gender inequality is a collective responsibility of nations and supranational agencies. Nations should adopt a framework hinged on three pedestals--legal, institutional and policy, employing the three recommended approaches of equal treatment, positive action, and gender mainstreaming.

Global Health Care Justice, Delivery Doctors and Assisted Reproduction: Taking a Note From Catholic Social Teachings.

PubMed

Richie, Cristina

2015-12-01

This article will examine the Catholic concept of global justice within a health care framework as it relates to women's needs for delivery doctors in the developing world and women's demands for assisted reproduction in the developed world. I will first discuss justice as a theory, situating it within Catholic social teachings. The Catholic perspective on global justice in health care demands that everyone have access to basic needs before elective treatments are offered to the wealthy. After exploring specific discrepancies in global health care justice, I will point to the need for delivery doctors in the developing world to provide basic assistance to women who hazard many pregnancies as a priority before offering assisted reproduction to women in the developed world. The wide disparities between maternal health in the developing world and elective fertility treatments in the developed world are clearly unjust within Catholic social teachings. I conclude this article by offering policy suggestions for moving closer to health care justice via doctor distribution. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling the effects of treatment and quarantine on measles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beay, Lazarus Kalvein

2018-03-01

Treatment and quarantine are efforts to cure as well as to overcome the spread of diseases including measles. The spread of measles can be expressed by mathematical modelling in the form of nonlinear dynamical systems. In this study was conducted on the spread of measles by considering the effect of treatment and quarantine on the infected individuals. By using the basic reproduction number of the model, can be analyzed the effects of treatment and quarantine to reduce the spread of measles. Basic reproduction number of models is monotonically descreasing as treatment and quarantine increasing. Numerical simulations conducted on the analysis of the results. The results showed that treatment and quarantine was given to infected individuals who were infectious has a major influence to eliminate measles from the system.

POMC Neurons: From Birth to Death

PubMed Central

Toda, Chitoku; Santoro, Anna; Kim, Jung Dae

2017-01-01

The hypothalamus is an evolutionarily conserved brain structure that regulates an organism’s basic functions, such as homeostasis and reproduction. Several hypothalamic nuclei and neuronal circuits have been the focus of many studies to understand their role in regulating these basic functions. Within the hypothalamic neuronal populations, the arcuate melanocortin system plays a major role in controlling homeostatic functions. The arcuate pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC) neurons in particular have been shown to be critical regulators of metabolism and reproduction because of their projections to several brain areas both in and outside of the hypothalamus, such as autonomic regions of the brain stem and spinal cord. Here, we review and discuss the current understanding of POMC neurons from their development and intracellular regulators to their physiological functions and pathological dysregulation. PMID:28192062

Global dynamics of zooplankton and harmful algae in flowing habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Wang, Feng-Bin; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

This paper is devoted to the study of two advection-dispersion-reaction models arising from the dynamics of harmful algae and zooplankton in flowing-water habitats where a main channel is coupled to a hydraulic storage zone, representing an ensemble of fringing coves on the shoreline. For the system modeling the dynamics of algae and their toxin that contains little limiting nutrient, we establish a threshold type result on the global attractivity in terms of the basic reproduction ratio for algae. For the model with zooplankton that eat the algae and are inhibited by the toxin produced by algae, we show that there exists a coexistence steady state and the zooplankton is uniformly persistent provided that two basic reproduction ratios for algae and zooplankton are greater than unity.

Age-specific reproduction in female sea otters (Enhydra lutris) from south-central Alaska: Analysis of reproductive tracts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Lensink, Calvin J.

1993-01-01

We estimated age at sexual maturity and age-specific reproductive rates by examining carcasses and reproductive tracts from 177 female sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Carcasses were recovered from south-central Alaska, Primarily from western Prince William Sound, as a result of the T/V Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989. We found 65% of our sample to be sexually mature. Sexual maturity was first attained at age 2. The proportion of sexually mature animals increased from 30% at age 2 to 100% at age 5. Annual reproductive rates increased from 22% at age 2 to 78% at age 5 and remained relatively stable (75-88%) through to age 15. the sex ratio (female:male) of 49 fetal sea otters was 18:37 and differed significantly from parity. Females younger than 8 tended to produce more female fetuses, while older mothers did not. Our estimates of the reproductive characteristics of female sea otters obtained by examination of reproductive tracts were similiar to those reported in the literature based on in situ observations of marked individuals.

Spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Royle, Andy; Boomer, G. Scott

2017-01-01

Knowledge of demographic parameters such as survival, reproduction, emigration, and immigration is essential to understand metapopulation dynamics. Traditionally the estimation of these demographic parameters requires intensive data from marked animals. The development of dynamic N-mixture models makes it possible to estimate demographic parameters from count data of unmarked animals, but the original dynamic N-mixture model does not distinguish emigration and immigration from survival and reproduction, limiting its ability to explain important metapopulation processes such as movement among local populations. In this study we developed a spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture model that estimates survival, reproduction, emigration, local population size, and detection probability from count data under the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches. Simulation studies showed that the inference of our model depends on detection probability, local population size, and the implementation of robust sampling design. Our model provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when detection probability is high, regardless of local population size or the type of sampling design. When detection probability is low, however, our model only provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when local population size is moderate to high and robust sampling design is used. A sensitivity analysis showed that our model is robust against the violation of the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches, suggesting wide applications of this model. Our model can be used to improve our understanding of metapopulation dynamics based on count data that are relatively easy to collect in many systems.

Modeling of the influence of humidity on H1N1 flu in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PEI, Y.; Tian, H.; Xu, B.

2015-12-01

In 2009, a heavy Flu hit the whole world. It was caused by the virus H1N1. The influenza first broke out in Mexico in March and the United States in April, 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the H1N1 influenza became pandemic, alert to a warning phase of six. By the end of 2011, 181302 H1N1 cases were reported in mainland China. To improve our understanding on the impact of environmental factors on the disease transmission, we constructed an SIR (Susceptible - Infectious - Recovered) model incorporating environmental factors. It was found that the absolute humidity was a dominant environmental factor. The study interpolated the humidity data monitored with 340 weather stations from 1951 to 2011 in mainland China. First, the break point of the trend for the absolutely humidity was detected by the BFAST (Break For Additive Season and Trend) method. Then, the SIR model with and without the absolutely humidity incorporated in the model was built and tested. Finally, the results with the two scenarios were compared. Results indicate that lower absolutely humidity may promote the transmission of the H1N1 cases. The calculated basic reproductive number ranges from 1.65 to 3.66 with a changing absolute humidity. This is consistent with the former study result with basic reproductive number ranging from 2.03 to 4.18. The average recovery duration was estimated to be 5.7 days. The average duration to get immunity from the influenza is 399.02 days. A risk map is also produced to illustrate the model results.

Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Radojevic, Milka; Wu, Xiaotian; Duvvuri, Venkata R; Leighton, Patrick A; Wu, Jianhong

2014-06-01

The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R0. Modeled R0 increases were compared with R0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. R0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971-2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R0 by factors (2-5 times in Canada and 1.5-2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.

Transmission potential of Zika virus infection in the South Pacific.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Kinoshita, Ryo; Mizumoto, Kenji; Yasuda, Yohei; Nah, Kyeongah

2016-04-01

Zika virus has spread internationally through countries in the South Pacific and Americas. The present study aimed to estimate the basic reproduction number, R0, of Zika virus infection as a measurement of the transmission potential, reanalyzing past epidemic data from the South Pacific. Incidence data from two epidemics, one on Yap Island, Federal State of Micronesia in 2007 and the other in French Polynesia in 2013-2014, were reanalyzed. R0 of Zika virus infection was estimated from the early exponential growth rate of these two epidemics. The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of R0 for the Yap Island epidemic was in the order of 4.3-5.8 with broad uncertainty bounds due to the small sample size of confirmed and probable cases. The MLE of R0 for French Polynesia based on syndromic data ranged from 1.8 to 2.0 with narrow uncertainty bounds. The transmissibility of Zika virus infection appears to be comparable to those of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Considering that Aedes species are a shared vector, this finding indicates that Zika virus replication within the vector is perhaps comparable to dengue and chikungunya. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Understanding Infertility - The Basics

MedlinePlus Videos and Cool Tools

... Research SART's FAQs about In Vitro Fertilization REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH TOPICS Topics Index NEWS AND PUBLICATIONS Publications Overview ... Insurance Laws Protect Your Fertility Campaign Find a Health Professional ABOUT ASRM Vision of ASRM ASRM's Mission ...

76 FR 59142 - Guidance for Industry on Reproductive and Developmental Toxicities-Integrating Study Results To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-23

...--Integrating Study Results To Assess Concerns; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION... industry entitled ``Reproductive and Developmental Toxicities--Integrating Study Results to Assess Concerns.'' This guidance describes an approach to estimating possible human developmental or reproductive risks...

Estimating the critical immunity threshold for preventing hepatitis A outbreaks in men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Regan, D G; Wood, J G; Benevent, C; Ali, H; Smith, L Watchirs; Robertson, P W; Ferson, M J; Fairley, C K; Donovan, B; Law, M G

2016-05-01

Several outbreaks of hepatitis A in men who have sex with men (MSM) were reported in the 1980s and 1990s in Australia and other countries. An effective hepatitis A virus (HAV) vaccine has been available in Australia since 1994 and is recommended for high-risk groups including MSM. No outbreaks of hepatitis A in Australian MSM have been reported since 1996. In this study, we aimed to estimate HAV transmissibility in MSM populations in order to inform targets for vaccine coverage in such populations. We used mathematical models of HAV transmission in a MSM population to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) and the probability of an HAV epidemic occurring as a function of the immune proportion. We estimated a plausible range for R 0 of 1·71-3·67 for HAV in MSM and that sustained epidemics cannot occur once the proportion immune to HAV is greater than ~70%. To our knowledge this is the first estimate of R 0 and the critical population immunity threshold for HAV transmission in MSM. As HAV is no longer endemic in Australia or in most other developed countries, vaccination is the only means of maintaining population immunity >70%. Our findings provide impetus to promote HAV vaccination in high-risk groups such as MSM.

Resource reallocation does not influence estimates of pollen limitation or reproductive assurance in Clarkia xantiana subsp. parviflora (Onagraceae).

PubMed

Runquist, Ryan D Briscoe; Moeller, David A

2013-09-01

Studies of pollen limitation and the reproductive assurance value of selfing are important for examining the process of floral and mating system evolution in flowering plants. Recent meta-analyses have shown that common methods for measuring pollen limitation may often lead to biased estimates. Specifically, experiments involving single- or few-flower manipulations per plant tend to overestimate pollen limitation compared to those involving manipulations on most or all flowers per plant. Little previous work has explicitly tested for reallocation within individual systems using alternative methods and response variables. • We performed single-flower and whole-plant pollen supplementation and emasculation of flowers of Clarkia xantiana subsp. parviflora to estimate pollen limitation (PL) and reproductive assurance (RA). We compared levels of PL and RA using the following response variables: fruit set, seeds/flower, and seeds/plant. We also assessed the germination and viability of seeds to evaluate potential variation in pollen quality among treatments. • Autonomous selfing in Clarkia xantiana subsp. parviflora eliminates pollen limitation and provides reproductive assurance. Estimates from single-flower manipulations were not biased, closely resembling those from whole-plant manipulations. All three response variables followed the same pattern, but treatments were only significantly different for seeds/flower. Pollen quality, as indicated by seed viability, did not differ among treatments. • Partial plant manipulations provided reliable estimates of pollen limitation and reproductive assurance. These estimates were also unaffected by accounting for pollen quality. Although whole plant manipulations are desirable, this experiment demonstrates that in some systems partial plant manipulations can be used in studies where whole-plant manipulations are not feasible.

On the estimation of the reproduction number based on misreported epidemic data.

PubMed

Azmon, Amin; Faes, Christel; Hens, Niel

2014-03-30

Epidemic data often suffer from underreporting and delay in reporting. In this paper, we investigated the impact of delays and underreporting on estimates of reproduction number. We used a thinned version of the epidemic renewal equation to describe the epidemic process while accounting for the underlying reporting system. Assuming a constant reporting parameter, we used different delay patterns to represent the delay structure in our model. Instead of assuming a fixed delay distribution, we estimated the delay parameters while assuming a smooth function for the reproduction number over time. In order to estimate the parameters, we used a Bayesian semiparametric approach with penalized splines, allowing both flexibility and exact inference provided by MCMC. To show the performance of our method, we performed different simulation studies. We conducted sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of misspecification of the delay pattern and the impact of assuming nonconstant reporting parameters on the estimates of the reproduction numbers. We showed that, whenever available, additional information about time-dependent underreporting can be taken into account. As an application of our method, we analyzed confirmed daily A(H1N1) v2009 cases made publicly available by the World Health Organization for Mexico and the USA. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Can avian reproductive outcomes estimated with MCnest be made more robust using stochastic parameterizations?

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, is a set of algorithms for integrating the results of avian toxicity tests with reproductive life-history data to project the relative magnitude of chemical effects on avian reproduction. The mathematical foundation of MCnest i...

Global dynamics of a network-based SIQRS epidemic model with demographics and vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shouying; Chen, Fengde; Chen, Lijuan

2017-02-01

This paper investigates a new SIQRS epidemic model with demographics and vaccination on complex heterogeneous networks. We analytically derive the basic reproduction number R0, which determines not only the existence of endemic equilibrium but also the global dynamics of the model. The permanence of the disease and the globally asymptotical stability of disease-free equilibrium are proved in detail. By using a monotone iterative technique, we show that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally attractive under certain conditions. Our results really improve and enrich the results in Li et al (2014) [14]. Interestingly, the basic reproduction number R0 bears no relation to the degree-dependent birth, but our simulations indicate that the degree-dependent birth does affect the epidemic dynamics. Furthermore, we find that quarantine plays a more active role than vaccination in controlling the disease.

Evolutionary medicine: its scope, interest and potential

PubMed Central

Stearns, Stephen C.

2012-01-01

This review is aimed at readers seeking an introductory overview, teaching courses and interested in visionary ideas. It first describes the range of topics covered by evolutionary medicine, which include human genetic variation, mismatches to modernity, reproductive medicine, degenerative disease, host–pathogen interactions and insights from comparisons with other species. It then discusses priorities for translational research, basic research and health management. Its conclusions are that evolutionary thinking should not displace other approaches to medical science, such as molecular medicine and cell and developmental biology, but that evolutionary insights can combine with and complement established approaches to reduce suffering and save lives. Because we are on the cusp of so much new research and innovative insights, it is hard to estimate how much impact evolutionary thinking will have on medicine, but it is already clear that its potential is enormous. PMID:22933370

Evolutionary medicine: its scope, interest and potential.

PubMed

Stearns, Stephen C

2012-11-07

This review is aimed at readers seeking an introductory overview, teaching courses and interested in visionary ideas. It first describes the range of topics covered by evolutionary medicine, which include human genetic variation, mismatches to modernity, reproductive medicine, degenerative disease, host-pathogen interactions and insights from comparisons with other species. It then discusses priorities for translational research, basic research and health management. Its conclusions are that evolutionary thinking should not displace other approaches to medical science, such as molecular medicine and cell and developmental biology, but that evolutionary insights can combine with and complement established approaches to reduce suffering and save lives. Because we are on the cusp of so much new research and innovative insights, it is hard to estimate how much impact evolutionary thinking will have on medicine, but it is already clear that its potential is enormous.

[Application of State Space model in the evaluation of the prevention and control for mumps].

PubMed

Luo, C; Li, R Z; Xu, Q Q; Xiong, P; Liu, Y X; Xue, F Z; Xu, Q; Li, X J

2017-09-10

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014, and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province. Methods: On the basis of certain model assumptions, a Space State model was formulated. Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters. Results: The basic reproduction number ( R (0)) for children in schools was 4.49 (95 %CI : 4.30-4.67) and 2.50 (95 %CI : 2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014. Conclusions: Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description. The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients. Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.

Leptospirosis is strongly associated to estrus repetition on cattle.

PubMed

Libonati, H A; Santos, G B; Souza, G N; Brandão, F Z; Lilenbaum, W

2018-05-02

Although prevalent, the exact impact of infectious diseases on reproductive failures remains to be determined. Among them, leptospirosis has commonly been reported as cause of abortions on outbreaks. Nevertheless, the majority of the animals present a chronic, silent form of the disease, which is characterized by low reproductive efficiency and is frequently neglected. In that context, we conducted a study that aims to estimate the impact of chronic leptospirosis on reproductive disorders on cattle. A total of 25 different dairy herds with history of reproductive losses from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were selected. From each herd, a questionnaire was applied and sera from 20 cows were randomly tested for leptospirosis (totaling 500 cows). Chi-square was performed to estimate the association of seroreactivity with reproductive disorders. A total of 32% of the herds were positive, all of them against serogroup Sejroe. Estrus repetition was the most important reported reproductive problem and it was strongly associated to seroreactivity against leptospirosis. Besides, specific vaccination against leptospirosis was an important protection factor against that disorder. In conclusion, control programs including, but not limited to, vaccines must be implemented on those herds in order to reduce reproductive losses, particularly estrus repetition.

Estimating challenge load due to disease outbreaks and other challenges using reproduction records of sows.

PubMed

Mathur, P K; Herrero-Medrano, J M; Alexandri, P; Knol, E F; ten Napel, J; Rashidi, H; Mulder, H A

2014-12-01

A method was developed and tested to estimate challenge load due to disease outbreaks and other challenges in sows using reproduction records. The method was based on reproduction records from a farm with known disease outbreaks. It was assumed that the reduction in weekly reproductive output within a farm is proportional to the magnitude of the challenge. As the challenge increases beyond certain threshold, it is manifested as an outbreak. The reproduction records were divided into 3 datasets. The first dataset called the Training dataset consisted of 57,135 reproduction records from 10,901 sows from 1 farm in Canada with several outbreaks of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). The known disease status of sows was regressed on the traits number born alive, number of losses as a combination of still birth and mummified piglets, and number of weaned piglets. The regression coefficients from this analysis were then used as weighting factors for derivation of an index measure called challenge load indicator. These weighting factors were derived with i) a two-step approach using residuals or year-week solutions estimated from a previous step, and ii) a single-step approach using the trait values directly. Two types of models were used for each approach: a logistic regression model and a general additive model. The estimates of challenge load indicator were then compared based on their ability to detect PRRS outbreaks in a Test dataset consisting of records from 65,826 sows from 15 farms in the Netherlands. These farms differed from the Canadian farm with respect to PRRS virus strains, severity and frequency of outbreaks. The single-step approach using a general additive model was best and detected 14 out of the 15 outbreaks. This approach was then further validated using the third dataset consisting of reproduction records of 831,855 sows in 431 farms located in different countries in Europe and America. A total of 41 out of 48 outbreaks detected using data analysis were confirmed based on diagnostic information received from the farms. Among these, 30 outbreaks were due to PRRS while 11 were due to other diseases and challenging conditions. The results suggest that proposed method could be useful for estimation of challenge load and detection of challenge phases such as disease outbreaks.

General framework for comparative quantitative studies on transmission of tick-borne diseases using Lyme borreliosis in Europe as an example.

PubMed

Randolph, S E; Craine, N G

1995-11-01

Models of tick-borne diseases must take account of the particular biological features of ticks that contrast with those of insect vectors. A general framework is proposed that identifies the parameters of the transmission dynamics of tick-borne diseases to allow a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of different host species and alternative transmission routes to the basic reproductive number, Ro, of such diseases. Taking the particular case of the transmission of the Lyme borreliosis spirochaete, Borrelia burgdorferi, by Ixodes ticks in Europe, and using the best, albeit still inadequate, estimates of the parameter values and a set of empirical data from Thetford Forest, England, we show that squirrels and the transovarial transmission route make quantitatively very significant contributions to Ro. This approach highlights the urgent need for more robust estimates of certain crucial parameter values, particularly the coefficients of transmission between ticks and vertebrates, before we can progress to full models that incorporate seasonality and heterogeneity among host populations for the natural dynamics of transmission of borreliosis and other tick-borne diseases.

Human infection patterns and heterogeneous exposure in river blindness

PubMed Central

Filipe, João A. N.; Boussinesq, Michel; Renz, Alfons; Collins, Richard C.; Vivas-Martinez, Sarai; Grillet, María-Eugenia; Little, Mark P.; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2005-01-01

Here we analyze patterns of human infection with Onchocerca volvulus (the cause of river blindness) in different continents and ecologies. In contrast with some geohelminths and schistosome parasites whose worm burdens typically exhibit a humped pattern with host age, patterns of O. volvulus infection vary markedly with locality. To test the hypothesis that such differences are partly due to heterogeneity in exposure to vector bites, we develop an age- and sex-structured model for intensity of infection, with parasite regulation within humans and vectors. The model is fitted to microfilarial data from savannah villages of northern Cameroon, coffee fincas of central Guatemala, and forest-dwelling communities of southern Venezuela that were recorded before introducing ivermectin treatment. Estimates of transmission and infection loads are compared with entomological and epidemiological field data. Host age- and sex-heterogeneous exposure largely explains locale-specific infection patterns in onchocerciasis (whereas acquired protective immunity has been invoked for other helminth infections). The basic reproductive number,R0, ranges from 5 to 8, which is slightly above estimates for other helminth parasites but well below previously presented values. PMID:16217028

Assessing dengue infection risk in the southern region of Taiwan: implications for control.

PubMed

Liao, C-M; Huang, T-L; Cheng, Y-H; Chen, W-Y; Hsieh, N-H; Chen, S-C; Chio, C-P

2015-04-01

Dengue, one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases, is a major international public health concern. This study aimed to assess potential dengue infection risk from Aedes aegypti in Kaohsiung and the implications for vector control. Here we investigated the impact of dengue transmission on human infection risk using a well-established dengue-mosquito-human transmission dynamics model. A basic reproduction number (R 0)-based probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate dengue infection risk. Our findings confirm that the effect of biting rate plays a crucial role in shaping R 0 estimates. We demonstrated that there was 50% risk probability for increased dengue incidence rates exceeding 0.5-0.8 wk-1 for temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C. We further demonstrated that the weekly increased dengue incidence rate can be decreased to zero if vector control efficiencies reach 30-80% at temperatures of 19-32°C. We conclude that our analysis on dengue infection risk and control implications in Kaohsiung provide crucial information for policy-making on disease control.

Time perception and reproduction in young adults with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

PubMed

Barkley, R A; Murphy, K R; Bush, T

2001-07-01

Adults with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; n = 104) were compared with a control group (n = 64) on time estimation and reproduction tasks. Results were unaffected by ADHD subtype or gender. The ADHD group provided larger time estimations than the control group, particularly at long intervals. This became nonsignificant after controlling for IQ. The ADHD group made shorter reproductions than did the control group (15- and 60-s intervals) and greater reproduction errors (12-, 45-, 60-s durations). These differences remained after controlling for IQ and comorbid oppositional defiant disorder, depression, and anxiety. Only the level of anxiety contributed to errors (at 12-s duration) beyond the level of ADHD. Results extended findings on time perception in ADHD children to adults and ruled out comorbidity as the basis of the errors.

Timing reproduction in teleost fish: cues and mechanisms

PubMed Central

Juntti, Scott A; Fernald, Russell D

2016-01-01

Fish comprise half of extant vertebrate species and use a rich variety of reproductive strategies that have yielded insights into the basic mechanisms that evolved for sex. To maximize the chances of fertilization and survival of offspring, fish species time reproduction to occur at optimal times. For years, ethologists have performed painstaking experiments to identify sensory inputs and behavioral outputs of the brain during mating. Here we review known mechanisms that generate sexual behavior, focusing on the factors that govern the timing of these displays. The development of new technologies, including high-throughput sequencing and genome engineering, have the potential to provide novel insights into how the vertebrate brain consummates mating at the appropriate time. PMID:26952366

Asexual Reproduction in Holothurians

PubMed Central

Dolmatov, Igor Yu.

2014-01-01

Aspects of asexual reproduction in holothurians are discussed. Holothurians are significant as fishery and aquaculture items and have high commercial value. The last review on holothurian asexual reproduction was published 18 years ago and included only 8 species. An analysis of the available literature shows that asexual reproduction has now been confirmed in 16 holothurian species. Five additional species are also most likely capable of fission. The recent discovery of new fissiparous holothurian species indicates that this reproduction mode is more widespread in Holothuroidea than previously believed. New data about the history of the discovery of asexual reproduction in holothurians, features of fission, and regeneration of anterior and posterior fragments are described here. Asexual reproduction is obviously controlled by the integrated systems of the organism, primarily the nervous system. Special molecular mechanisms appear to determine the location where fission occurs along the anterior-posterior axis of the body. Alteration of the connective tissue strength of the body wall may play an important role during fission of holothurians. The basic mechanism of fission is the interaction of matrix metalloproteinases, their inhibitors, and enzymes forming cross-link complexes between fibrils of collagen. The population dynamics of fissiparous holothurians are discussed. PMID:25405228

Patterns of temporal variation in goshawk reproduction and prey resources

Treesearch

Susan R. Salafsky; Richard T. Reynolds; Barry R. Noon

2005-01-01

To investigate whether Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) reproduction is food-limited, we evaluated the reproductive output from 401 goshawk breeding opportunities on the Kaibab Plateau, Arizona during 1999¨C2002. Concurrently, we estimated densities of 10 goshawk prey species (seven birds, three mammals) using distance sampling. We then assessed...

Assisted human reproduction--legal rights of the unborn in respect of avoidable damage.

PubMed

Adam, G M

2007-06-01

The author describes various risks to the foetus arising from assisted reproduction technology (ART). These risks are examined from the legal viewpoint, especially considering the rights of the foetus as interpreted in a number of jurisdictions. He distinguishes between the avoidable and inherent risks to the foetus resulting from ART and the potential hazards of ART relevant to criminal law. The basic internationally accepted conventions on foetal rights are compared relative to decisions in a number of cases heard and decided.

Basic Mycology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodwin, Lilla M.

1970-01-01

Discusses activities that can be carried out on a field trip study of mushrooms; follow-up activities in the classroom are suggested. Mushrooms are selected as an introduction to mycology mainly because of their large size and prominent reproductive structures. (BR)

Breeding of White-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon lepturus) in the western South Atlantic.

PubMed

Leal, G R; Serafini, P P; Simão-Neto, I; Ladle, R J; Efe, M A

2016-04-19

Basic information on natural history is crucial for assessing the viability of populations, but is often lacking for many species of conservation concern. One such species is the White-tailed Tropicbird, Phaethon lepturus (Mathews, 1915). Here, we address this shortfall by providing detailed information on reproductive biology, distribution and threats on the Fernando de Noronha archipelago, Brazil - the largest colony of P. lepturus in the South Atlantic. We assessed reproduction from August 2011 to January 2012 by monitoring tropicbird nests and their contents. A population estimate was obtained through a combination of active searches for nests and by census at sea between 2010 and 2012. Breeding success was calculated by traditional methods. The growth curve of chicks and life table were also calculated. Additional information on nest and mate fidelity and on age of breeding birds was obtained from the banded birds. Our results indicate that the unusual nest form (limestone pinnacles) and predation by crabs may be responsible for the observed patterns of hatching and fledging success. Although the Fernando de Noronha population appears to be stable (at between 100-300 birds), a long term monitoring program would be desirable to assess fluctuations in this globally important population. Conservation strategies should focus on controlling predation by land crabs and tegu lizards.

Density-dependent host choice by disease vectors: epidemiological implications of the ideal free distribution.

PubMed

Basáñez, María-Gloria; Razali, Karina; Renz, Alfons; Kelly, David

2007-03-01

The proportion of vector blood meals taken on humans (the human blood index, h) appears as a squared term in classical expressions of the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for vector-borne infections. Consequently, R(0) varies non-linearly with h. Estimates of h, however, constitute mere snapshots of a parameter that is predicted, from evolutionary theory, to vary with vector and host abundance. We test this prediction using a population dynamics model of river blindness assuming that, before initiation of vector control or chemotherapy, recorded measures of vector density and human infection accurately represent endemic equilibrium. We obtain values of h that satisfy the condition that the effective reproduction ratio (R(e)) must equal 1 at equilibrium. Values of h thus obtained decrease with vector density, decrease with the vector:human ratio and make R(0) respond non-linearly rather than increase linearly with vector density. We conclude that if vectors are less able to obtain human blood meals as their density increases, antivectorial measures may not lead to proportional reductions in R(0) until very low vector levels are achieved. Density dependence in the contact rate of infectious diseases transmitted by insects may be an important non-linear process with implications for their epidemiology and control.

Perceived gynecological morbidity among young ever-married women living in squatter settlements of Karachi, Pakistan.

PubMed

Sajan, F; Fikree, F F

1999-04-01

Community-based information on obstetric and gynecological morbidity in developing countries is meager and nearly non-existent in Pakistan. To estimate the prevalence of specific gynecological morbidities and investigate the predictors of pelvic inflammatory disease. Users [404] and non-users [313] of modern contraceptives were identified from eight squatter settlements of Karachi, Pakistan and detailed information on basic demographics, contraceptive use, female mobility, decision-making and gynecological morbidities were elicited. The perceived prevalence of menstrual disorders were 45.3%, uterine prolapse 19.1%, pelvic inflammatory disease 12.8% and urinary tract infection 5.4%. The magnitude of gynecological morbidity was high with about 55% of women reporting at least one gynecological morbidity though fewer [20%] reported at least two gynecological morbidities. Significant predictors of pelvic inflammatory disease were intrauterine contraceptive device users (OR = 3.1; 95% CI 1.7-5.6), age < or = 20 years (OR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.1-4.8) and urban life style (OR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.0-4.6). There is an immense burden of reproductive ill-health and a significant association between ever users of intrauterine contraceptive device and pelvic inflammatory disease. We therefore suggest improvement in the quality of reproductive health services generally, but specifically for family planning services.

Building integral projection models: a user's guide

PubMed Central

Rees, Mark; Childs, Dylan Z; Ellner, Stephen P; Coulson, Tim

2014-01-01

In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses. PMID:24219157

Assessment of mammal reproduction for hunting sustainability through community-based sampling of species in the wild.

PubMed

Mayor, Pedro; El Bizri, Hani; Bodmer, Richard E; Bowler, Mark

2017-08-01

Wildlife subsistence hunting is a major source of protein for tropical rural populations and a prominent conservation issue. The intrinsic rate of natural increase. (r max ) of populations is a key reproductive parameter in the most used assessments of hunting sustainability. However, researchers face severe difficulties in obtaining reproductive data in the wild, so these assessments often rely on classic reproductive rates calculated mostly from studies of captive animals conducted 30 years ago. The result is a flaw in almost 50% of studies, which hampers management decision making. We conducted a 15-year study in the Amazon in which we used reproductive data from the genitalia of 950 hunted female mammals. Genitalia were collected by local hunters. We examined tissue from these samples to estimate birthrates for wild populations of the 10 most hunted mammals. We compared our estimates with classic measures and considered the utility of the use of r max in sustainability assessments. For woolly monkey (Lagothrix poeppigii) and tapir (Tapirus terrestris), wild birthrates were similar to those from captive populations, whereas birthrates for other ungulates and lowland-paca (Cuniculus paca) were significantly lower than previous estimates. Conversely, for capuchin monkeys (Sapajus macrocephalus), agoutis (Dasyprocta sp.), and coatis (Nasua nasua), our calculated reproductive rates greatly exceeded often-used values. Researchers could keep applying classic measures compatible with our estimates, but for other species previous estimates of r max may not be appropriate. We suggest that data from local studies be used to set hunting quotas. Our maximum rates of population growth in the wild correlated with body weight, which suggests that our method is consistent and reliable. Integration of this method into community-based wildlife management and the training of local hunters to record pregnancies in hunted animals could efficiently generate useful information of life histories of wild species and thus improve management of natural resources. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Preparing images for publication: part 1.

PubMed

Devigus, Alessandro; Paul, Stefan

2006-04-01

Images play a vital role in the publication and presentation of clinical and scientific work. Within clinical photography, color reproduction has always been a contentious issue. With the development of new technologies, the variables affecting color reproduction have changed, and photographers have moved away from film-based to digital photographic imaging systems. To develop an understanding of color, knowledge about the basic principles of light and vision is important. An object's color is determined by which wavelengths of light it reflects. Colors of light and colors of pigment behave differently. Due to technical limitations, monitors and printers are unable to reproduce all the colors we can see with our eyes, also called the LAB color space. In order to optimize the output of digital clinical images, color management solutions need to be integrated in the photographic workflow; however, their use is still limited in the medical field. As described in part 2 of this article, calibrating your computer monitor and using an 18% gray background card are easy ways to enable more consistent color reproduction for publication. In addition, some basic information about the various camera settings is given to facilitate the use of this new digital equipment in daily practice.

Application of optimal control strategies to HIV-malaria co-infection dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatmawati; Windarto; Hanif, Lathifah

2018-03-01

This paper presents a mathematical model of HIV and malaria co-infection transmission dynamics. Optimal control strategies such as malaria preventive, anti-malaria and antiretroviral (ARV) treatments are considered into the model to reduce the co-infection. First, we studied the existence and stability of equilibria of the presented model without control variables. The model has four equilibria, namely the disease-free equilibrium, the HIV endemic equilibrium, the malaria endemic equilibrium, and the co-infection equilibrium. We also obtain two basic reproduction ratios corresponding to the diseases. It was found that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever their respective basic reproduction numbers are less than one. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the dominant factor controlling the transmission. sic reproduction numbers are less than one. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the dominant factor controlling the transmission. Then, the optimal control theory for the model was derived analytically by using Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Numerical simulations of the optimal control strategies are also performed to illustrate the results. From the numerical results, we conclude that the best strategy is to combine the malaria prevention and ARV treatments in order to reduce malaria and HIV co-infection populations.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Access to essential maternal health interventions and human rights violations among vulnerable communities in eastern Burma.

PubMed

Mullany, Luke C; Lee, Catherine I; Yone, Lin; Paw, Palae; Oo, Eh Kalu Shwe; Maung, Cynthia; Lee, Thomas J; Beyrer, Chris

2008-12-23

Health indicators are poor and human rights violations are widespread in eastern Burma. Reproductive and maternal health indicators have not been measured in this setting but are necessary as part of an evaluation of a multi-ethnic pilot project exploring strategies to increase access to essential maternal health interventions. The goal of this study is to estimate coverage of maternal health services prior to this project and associations between exposure to human rights violations and access to such services. Selected communities in the Shan, Mon, Karen, and Karenni regions of eastern Burma that were accessible to community-based organizations operating from Thailand were surveyed to estimate coverage of reproductive, maternal, and family planning services, and to assess exposure to household-level human rights violations within the pilot-project target population. Two-stage cluster sampling surveys among ever-married women of reproductive age (15-45 y) documented access to essential antenatal care interventions, skilled attendance at birth, postnatal care, and family planning services. Mid-upper arm circumference, hemoglobin by color scale, and Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia by rapid diagnostic dipstick were measured. Exposure to human rights violations in the prior 12 mo was recorded. Between September 2006 and January 2007, 2,914 surveys were conducted. Eighty-eight percent of women reported a home delivery for their last pregnancy (within previous 5 y). Skilled attendance at birth (5.1%), any (39.3%) or > or = 4 (16.7%) antenatal visits, use of an insecticide-treated bed net (21.6%), and receipt of iron supplements (11.8%) were low. At the time of the survey, more than 60% of women had hemoglobin level estimates < or = 11.0 g/dl and 7.2% were Pf positive. Unmet need for contraceptives exceeded 60%. Violations of rights were widely reported: 32.1% of Karenni households reported forced labor and 10% of Karen households had been forced to move. Among Karen households, odds of anemia were 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-2.40) times higher among women reporting forced displacement, and 7.47 (95% CI 2.21-25.3) higher among those exposed to food security violations. The odds of receiving no antenatal care services were 5.94 (95% CI 2.23-15.8) times higher among those forcibly displaced. Coverage of basic maternal health interventions is woefully inadequate in these selected populations and substantially lower than even the national estimates for Burma, among the lowest in the region. Considerable political, financial, and human resources are necessary to improve access to maternal health care in these communities.

Milk protein concentration, estimated breeding value for fertility, and reproductive performance in lactating dairy cows.

PubMed

Morton, John M; Auldist, Martin J; Douglas, Meaghan L; Macmillan, Keith L

2017-07-01

Milk protein concentration in dairy cows has been positively associated with a range of measures of reproductive performance, and genetic factors affecting both milk protein concentration and reproductive performance may contribute to the observed phenotypic associations. It was of interest to assess whether these beneficial phenotypic associations are accounted for or interact with the effects of estimated breeding values for fertility. The effects of a multitrait estimated breeding value for fertility [the Australian breeding value for daughter fertility (ABV fertility)] on reproductive performance were also of interest. Interactions of milk protein concentration and ABV fertility with the interval from calving date to the start of the herd's seasonally concentrated breeding period were also assessed. A retrospective single cohort study was conducted using data collected from 74 Australian seasonally and split calving dairy herds. Associations between milk protein concentration, ABV fertility, and reproductive performance in Holstein cows were assessed using random effects logistic regression. Between 52,438 and 61,939 lactations were used for analyses of 4 reproductive performance measures. Milk protein concentration was strongly and positively associated with reproductive performance in dairy cows, and this effect was not accounted for by the effects of ABV fertility. Increases in ABV fertility had important additional beneficial effects on the probability of pregnancy by wk 6 and 21 of the herd's breeding period. For cows calved before the start of the breeding period, the effects of increases in both milk protein concentration and ABV fertility were beneficial regardless of their interval from calving to the start of the breeding period. These findings demonstrate the potential for increasing reproductive performance through identifying the causes of the association between milk protein concentration and reproductive performance and then devising management strategies to capitalize on them. Research should be conducted to understand the component of the relationship not captured by ABV fertility. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A State Articulated Instructional Objectives Guide for Occupational Education Programs. State Pilot Model for Drafting (Graphic Communications). Part I--Basic. Part II--Specialty Programs. Section A (Mechanical Drafting and Design). Section B (Architectural Drafting and Design).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

North Carolina State Dept. of Community Colleges, Raleigh.

A two-part articulation instructional objective guide for drafting (graphic communications) is provided. Part I contains summary information on seven blocks (courses) of instruction. They are as follow: introduction; basic technical drafting; problem solving in graphics; reproduction processes; freehand drawing and sketching; graphics composition;…

Plant toxins that affect nicotinic acetylcholine receptors: A review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plants produce wide variety of chemical compounds termed secondary metabolites that are not involved in basic metabolism, photosynthesis or reproduction. These compounds are used as flavors, fragrances, insecticides, dyes, hallucinogens, nutritional supplements, poisons, and pharmaceutical agents. ...

Teaching Basic Science Environmentally. Concept: Plants Reproduce Their Own Kind.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busch, Phyllis

1987-01-01

Offers suggestions for spring activities focusing on plant reproduction both indoors and outdoors. Suggests planting seeds to observe, measure, and record effects of temperature, moisture, fertilizer. Recommends outdoor study of the horsetail plant. (NEC)

Preventing Superinfection in Malaria Spreads with Repellent and Medical Treatment Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitri, Fanny; Aldila, Dipo

2018-03-01

Malaria is a kind of a vector-borne disease. That means this disease needs a vector (in this case, the anopheles mosquito) to spread. In this article, a mathematical model for malaria disease spread will be discussed. The model is constructed as a seven-dimensional of a non-linear ordinary differential equation. The interventions of treatment for infected humans and use of repellent are included in the model to see how these interventions could be considered as alternative ways to control the spread of malaria. Analysis will be made of the disease-free equilibrium point along with its local stability criteria, construction of the next generation matrix which followed with the sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number. We found that both medical treatment and repellent intervention succeeded in reducing the basic reproduction number as the endemic indicator of the model. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to give a better interpretation of the analytical results.

Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results. PMID:27042199

A delay differential equation model for dengue transmission with regular visits to a mosquito breeding site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaacob, Y.; Yeak, S. H.; Lim, R. S.; Soewono, E.

2015-03-01

Dengue disease has been known as one of widely transmitted vector-borne diseases which potentially affects millions of people throughout the world especially in tropical and sub-tropical countries. One of the main factors contributing in the complication of the transmission process is the mobility of people in which people may get infection in the places far from their home. Here we construct a delay differential equation model for dengue transmission in a closed population where regular visits of people to a mosquito breeding site out of their residency such as traditional market take place daily. Basic reproductive ratio of the system is obtained and depends on the ratio between the outgoing rates of susceptible human and infective human. It is shown that the increase of mobility with different variation of mobility rates may contribute to different level of basic reproductive ratio as well as different level of outbreaks.

Backward Bifurcation in a Cholera Model: A Case Study of Outbreak in Zimbabwe and Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sandeep; Kumari, Nitu

In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model is proposed with a saturated treatment function. The expression of the basic reproduction number for the proposed model was obtained. The global dynamics of the proposed model was studied using the basic reproduction number and theory of dynamical systems. It is observed that proposed model exhibits backward bifurcation as multiple endemic equilibrium points exist when R0 < 1. The existence of backward bifurcation implies that making R0 < 1 is not enough for disease eradication. This, in turn, makes it difficult to control the spread of cholera in the community. We also obtain a unique endemic equilibria when R0 > 1. The global stability of unique endemic equilibria is performed using the geometric approach. An extensive numerical study is performed to support our analytical results. Finally, we investigate two major cholera outbreaks, Zimbabwe (2008-09) and Haiti (2010), with the help of the present study.

Mathematical model for transmission of tuberculosis in badger population with vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tasmi, Aldila, D.; Soewono, E.; Nuraini, N.

2016-04-01

Badger was first time identified as a carrier of Bovine tuberculosis disease in England since 30 years ago. Bovine tuberculosis can be transmitted to another species through the faces, saliva, and breath. The control of tuberculosis in the badger is necessary to reduce the spread of the disease to other species. Many actions have been taken by the government to tackle the disease such as culling badgers with cyanide gas, but this way destroys the natural balance and disrupts the badger population. An alternative way to eliminate tuberculosis within badger population is by vaccination. Here in this paper a model for transmission of badger tuberculosis with vaccination is discussed. The existence of the endemic equilibrium, the stability and the basic reproduction ratio are shown analytically. Numerical simulations show that with proper vaccination level, the basic reproduction ratio could be reduced significantly. Sensitivity analysis for variation of parameters are shown numerically.

Development of ostrich thrombocytes and monocyte-derived macrophages in culture and the control of Toxoplasma gondii reproduction after macrophage activation.

PubMed

Miranda, Farlen J B; Damasceno-Sá, João Cláudio; DaMatta, Renato A

2016-01-01

Raising ostriches became an important economic activity after their products became commodities. The health of farm animals is of paramount importance, so assessing basic immunological responses is necessary to better understand health problems. We developed a method to obtain ostrich thrombocytes and macrophages. The thrombocytes died by apoptosis after 48 h in culture, and the macrophages expanded in size and increased the number of acidic compartments. Macrophages were activated by chicken interferon-γ, producing high levels of nitric oxide. Toxoplasma gondii was able to infect these macrophages, and activation controlled parasitic reproduction. T. gondii, however, persisted in these cells, and infection reduced the production of nitric oxide. These results are important for the future assessment of the basic cellular and immunobiology of ostriches and demonstrate T. gondii suppression of nitric oxide production. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

The reproductive endocrinology and behavior of Vancouver Island marmot (Marmota vancouverensis).

PubMed

Keeley, T; Goodrowe, K L; Graham, L; Howell, C; MacDonald, S E

2012-01-01

The Vancouver Island marmot (Marmota vancouverensis; VIM) is one of North America's most endangered species with fewer than 150 individuals remaining in the wild. A captive breeding program was established across four facilities in Canada as an insurance population and source of animals for reintroduction to the wild. The purpose of this study was to gather information about the basic reproductive biology and behavior of this species, which is essential to improve captive breeding programs. Regular fecal samples were obtained from adult female (n = 14) and male (n = 10) marmots, 2 years of age and older, over 1-3 breeding seasons (2-3 months duration posthibernation) for steroid hormone analysis. Enzyme immunoassays were validated for quantifying fecal testosterone metabolite concentrations for males, and fecal estrogen and progesterone metabolite concentrations for females. Results indicated that fecal progesterone metabolite concentrations can be used to monitor ovulation and pregnancy. Behavioral monitoring through infrared video surveillance was conducted in four breeding pairs over a 2-year period (n = 7 behavioral profiles). Breeding behaviors correlated strongly with changes in reproductive endocrine profiles. A high frequency of play behavior or "wrestling" was observed in conjunction with breeding activity before an elevation in progesterone metabolite concentrations. Impending parturition was associated with increased aggression and exclusion of the male from the maternal nestbox as well as an increase in nesting activity. Observational data combined with hormonal analysis suggest that female VIMs are induced ovulators and that multiple breeding attempts may be required for ovulation and conception. Gestation appears to be approximately 34 days from peak breeding activity (32 days from estimated ovulation). Fecal testosterone concentrations suggest that testicular activity is seasonal with the reproductive activity occurring immediately posthibernation. Monitoring breeding behavior is a useful means of indicating estrus, conception and pregnancy, which can also be supported by the hormonal analysis of daily fecal samples of individual animals. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic diversity and reproductive success in mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx).

PubMed

Charpentier, M; Setchell, J M; Prugnolle, F; Knapp, L A; Wickings, E J; Peignot, P; Hossaert-McKey, M

2005-11-15

Recent studies of wild animal populations have shown that estimators of neutral genetic diversity, such as mean heterozygosity, are often correlated with various fitness traits, such as survival, disease susceptibility, or reproductive success. We used two estimators of genetic diversity to explore the relationship between heterozygosity and reproductive success in male and female mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx) living in a semifree ranging setting in Gabon. Because social rank is known to influence reproductive success in both sexes, we also examined the correlation between genetic diversity and social rank in females, and acquisition of alpha status in males, as well as length of alpha male tenure. We found that heterozygous individuals showed greater reproductive success, with both females and males producing more offspring. However, heterozygosity influenced reproductive success only in dominant males, not in subordinates. Neither the acquisition of alpha status in males, nor social rank in females, was significantly correlated with heterozygosity, although more heterozygous alpha males showed longer tenure than homozygous ones. We also tested whether the benefits of greater genetic diversity were due mainly to a genome-wide effect of inbreeding depression or to heterosis at one or a few loci. Multilocus effects best explained the correlation between heterozygosity and reproductive success and tenure, indicating the occurrence of inbreeding depression in this mandrill colony.

The frequency of sex in fungi.

PubMed

Nieuwenhuis, Bart P S; James, Timothy Y

2016-10-19

Fungi are a diverse group of organisms with a huge variation in reproductive strategy. While almost all species can reproduce sexually, many reproduce asexually most of the time. When sexual reproduction does occur, large variation exists in the amount of in- and out-breeding. While budding yeast is expected to outcross only once every 10 000 generations, other fungi are obligate outcrossers with well-mixed panmictic populations. In this review, we give an overview of the costs and benefits of sexual and asexual reproduction in fungi, and the mechanisms that evolved in fungi to reduce the costs of either mode. The proximate molecular mechanisms potentiating outcrossing and meiosis appear to be present in nearly all fungi, making them of little use for predicting outcrossing rates, but also suggesting the absence of true ancient asexual lineages. We review how population genetic methods can be used to estimate the frequency of sex in fungi and provide empirical data that support a mixed mode of reproduction in many species with rare to frequent sex in between rounds of mitotic reproduction. Finally, we highlight how these estimates might be affected by the fungus-specific mechanisms that evolved to reduce the costs of sexual and asexual reproduction.This article is part of the themed issue 'Weird sex: the underappreciated diversity of sexual reproduction'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Resource allocation to reproduction in animals.

PubMed

Kooijman, Sebastiaan A L M; Lika, Konstadia

2014-11-01

The standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model assumes that a fraction κ of mobilised reserve is allocated to somatic maintenance plus growth, while the rest is allocated to maturity maintenance plus maturation (in embryos and juveniles) or reproduction (in adults). All DEB parameters have been estimated for 276 animal species from most large phyla and all chordate classes. The goodness of fit is generally excellent. We compared the estimated values of κ with those that would maximise reproduction in fully grown adults with abundant food. Only 13% of these species show a reproduction rate close to the maximum possible (assuming that κ can be controlled), another 4% have κ lower than the optimal value, and 83% have κ higher than the optimal value. Strong empirical support hence exists for the conclusion that reproduction is generally not maximised. We also compared the parameters of the wild chicken with those of races selected for meat and egg production and found that the latter indeed maximise reproduction in terms of κ, while surface-specific assimilation was not affected by selection. We suggest that small values of κ relate to the down-regulation of maximum body size, and large values to the down-regulation of reproduction. We briefly discuss the ecological context for these findings. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Cognitive timing: neuropsychology and anatomic basis.

PubMed

Coslett, H Branch; Shenton, Jeff; Dyer, Tamarah; Wiener, Martin

2009-02-13

We report data from 31 subjects with focal hemisphere lesions (15 left hemisphere) as well as 16 normal controls on a battery of tasks assessing the estimation, production and reproduction of time intervals ranging from 2-12 s. Both visual and auditory stimuli were employed for the estimation and production tasks. First, ANOVAs were performed to assess the effect of stimulus modality on estimation and production tasks; a significant effect of stimulus modality was observed for the production but not the estimation task. Second, accuracy was significantly different for the 2 s interval as compared to longer intervals. Subsequent analyses of the data from 4-12 s stimuli demonstrated that patients with brain lesions were more variable than controls on the estimation and reproduction tasks. Additionally, patients with brain lesions but not controls exhibited significant differences in performance on the different tasks; patients with brain lesions under-produced but over-estimated time intervals of 4-12 s but performed relatively well on the reproduction task, a pattern of performance consistent with a "fast clock". There was a significant correlation between impaired performance and lesions of the parietal lobe but there was no effect of laterality of lesion or correlation between lateral frontal lobe lesions and impairment on any task.

Modeling malaria and typhoid fever co-infection dynamics.

PubMed

Mutua, Jones M; Wang, Feng-Bin; Vaidya, Naveen K

2015-06-01

Malaria and typhoid are among the most endemic diseases, and thus, of major public health concerns in tropical developing countries. In addition to true co-infection of malaria and typhoid, false diagnoses due to similar signs and symptoms and false positive results in testing methods, leading to improper controls, are the major challenges on managing these diseases. In this study, we develop novel mathematical models describing the co-infection dynamics of malaria and typhoid. Through mathematical analyses of our models, we identify distinct features of typhoid and malaria infection dynamics as well as relationships associated to their co-infection. The global dynamics of typhoid can be determined by a single threshold (the typhoid basic reproduction number, R0(T)) while two thresholds (the malaria basic reproduction number, R0(M), and the extinction index, R0(MM)) are needed to determine the global dynamics of malaria. We demonstrate that by using efficient simultaneous prevention programs, the co-infection basic reproduction number, R0, can be brought down to below one, thereby eradicating the diseases. Using our model, we present illustrative numerical results with a case study in the Eastern Province of Kenya to quantify the possible false diagnosis resulting from this co-infection. In Kenya, despite having higher prevalence of typhoid, malaria is more problematic in terms of new infections and disease deaths. We find that false diagnosis-with higher possible cases for typhoid than malaria-cause significant devastating impacts on Kenyan societies. Our results demonstrate that both diseases need to be simultaneously managed for successful control of co-epidemics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lasers in the in-vitro fertilization laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadir, Yona; Neev, Joseph; Berns, Michael W.

1993-05-01

Laser beams are routinely used in the clinical practice of assisted reproduction. The main applications are in laparoscopic and hysteroscopic surgery. The potential applications of laser microbeams as a tool for gamete manipulations are studied and basic concepts are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thangavelu, Pulari U.; Gupta, Vipul; Dixit, Narendra M., E-mail: narendra@chemeng.iisc.ernet.in

The contest between the host factor APOBEC3G (A3G) and the HIV-1 protein Vif presents an attractive target of intervention. The extent to which the A3G–Vif interaction must be suppressed to tilt the balance in favor of A3G remains unknown. We employed stochastic simulations and mathematical modeling of the within-host dynamics and evolution of HIV-1 to estimate the fraction of progeny virions that must incorporate A3G to render productive infection unsustainable. Using three different approaches, we found consistently that a transition from sustained infection to suppression of productive infection occurred when the latter fraction exceeded ∼0.8. The transition was triggered bymore » A3G-induced hypermutations that led to premature stop codons compromising viral production and was consistent with driving the basic reproductive number, R{sub 0}, below unity. The fraction identified may serve as a quantitative guideline for strategies targeting the A3G–Vif axis. - Highlights: • We perform simulations and mathematical modeling of the role of APOBEC3G in suppressing HIV-1 infection. • In three distinct ways, we estimate that when over 80% of progeny virions carry APOBEC3G, productive HIV-1 infection would be suppressed. • Our estimate of this critical fraction presents quantitative guidelines for strategies targeting the APOBEC3G–Vif axis.« less

The Failure of R 0

PubMed Central

Li, Jing; Blakeley, Daniel; Smith?, Robert J.

2011-01-01

The basic reproductive ratio, R 0, is one of the fundamental concepts in mathematical biology. It is a threshold parameter, intended to quantify the spread of disease by estimating the average number of secondary infections in a wholly susceptible population, giving an indication of the invasion strength of an epidemic: if R 0 < 1, the disease dies out, whereas if R 0 > 1, the disease persists. R 0 has been widely used as a measure of disease strength to estimate the effectiveness of control measures and to form the backbone of disease-management policy. However, in almost every aspect that matters, R 0 is flawed. Diseases can persist with R 0 < 1, while diseases with R 0 > 1 can die out. We show that the same model of malaria gives many different values of R 0, depending on the method used, with the sole common property that they have a threshold at 1. We also survey estimated values of R 0 for a variety of diseases, and examine some of the alternatives that have been proposed. If R 0 is to be used, it must be accompanied by caveats about the method of calculation, underlying model assumptions and evidence that it is actually a threshold. Otherwise, the concept is meaningless. PMID:21860658

Price and cost estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, R. D.

1979-01-01

Price and Cost Estimating Program (PACE II) was developed to prepare man-hour and material cost estimates. Versatile and flexible tool significantly reduces computation time and errors and reduces typing and reproduction time involved in preparation of cost estimates.

Climate change alters reproductive isolation and potential gene flow in an annual plant.

PubMed

Franks, Steven J; Weis, Arthur E

2009-11-01

Climate change will likely cause evolution due not only to selection but also to changes in reproductive isolation within and among populations. We examined the effects of a natural drought on the timing of flowering in two populations of Brassica rapa and the consequences for predicted reproductive isolation and potential gene flow. Seeds were collected before and after a 5-year drought in southern California from two populations varying in soil moisture. Lines derived from these seeds were raised in the greenhouse under wet and drought conditions. We found that the natural drought caused changes in reproductive timing and that the changes were greater for plants from the wet than from the dry site. This differential shift caused the populations to become more phenological similar, which should lead to less reproductive isolation and increased gene flow. We estimated a high level of assortative mating by flowering time, which potentially contributed to the rapid evolution of phenological traits following the drought. Estimates of assortative mating were higher for the wet site population, and assortative mating was reduced following the drought. This study shows that climate change can potentially alter gene flow and reproductive isolation within and among populations, strongly influencing evolution.

Helicopter Visual Segment Approach Lighting System (HALS) Test Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-01

this Pegl 23. Ne. a# Palo$ 22. Ptuco Unclassified Unclassified 316 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-721 Reproduction of e9Isted Ppe authorized TABLE OF CONTENTS...Subject Pilot Range Rate/Vertical Position Plots lii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure Page I Basic Heliport IFR Lighting System 4 2 Heliport Approach...Instrument Flight Rules ( IFR ) Heliport Lighting System and a centerline HALS. The Basic IFR Approach Light System is presented in figure 1. It consists of

The history of three scientific societies: the Society for the Study of Fertility (now the Society for Reproduction and Fertility) (Britain), the Société Française pour l'Etude de la Fertilité, and the Society for the Study of Reproduction (USA).

PubMed

Clarke, John

2007-06-01

Three scientific societies devoted to the study of reproduction were established in Britain, France and USA in the middle of the twentieth century by clinical, veterinary and agricultural scientists. The principal motivation for their establishment had been the study of sterility and fertility of people and livestock. There was also a wider perspective embracing other biologists interested in reproduction more generally. Knowledge disseminated through the societies' scientific meetings and publications would bear upon human and animal population problems as well as basic reproductive physiology and its applications. New journals dealing with reproductive physiology, having worldwide appeal, were established in Britain and USA. The financial resources of at least one of the societies and its journal are directed towards charitable functions, including financial support for travel to scientific meetings, for visits to particular laboratories, and for research in the short term, including that of undergraduates. Perhaps the example of the British society has given rise to others having a more specialised focus, as well as to the formation of the European Society for the Study of Human Reproduction and Embryology.

A model for a chikungunya outbreak in a rural Cambodian setting: implications for disease control in uninfected areas.

PubMed

Robinson, Marguerite; Conan, Anne; Duong, Veasna; Ly, Sowath; Ngan, Chantha; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

2014-09-01

Following almost 30 years of relative silence, chikungunya fever reemerged in Kenya in 2004. It subsequently spread to the islands of the Indian Ocean, reaching Southeast Asia in 2006. The virus was first detected in Cambodia in 2011 and a large outbreak occurred in the village of Trapeang Roka Kampong Speu Province in March 2012, in which 44% of the villagers had a recent infection biologically confirmed. The epidemic curve was constructed from the number of biologically-confirmed CHIKV cases per day determined from the date of fever onset, which was self-reported during a data collection campaign conducted in the village after the outbreak. All individuals participating in the campaign had infections confirmed by laboratory analysis, allowing for the identification of asymptomatic cases and those with an unreported date of fever onset. We develop a stochastic model explicitly including such cases, all of whom do not appear on the epidemic curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the outbreak to be 6.46 (95% C.I. [6.24, 6.78]). We show that this estimate is particularly sensitive to changes in the biting rate and mosquito longevity. Our model also indicates that the infection was more widespread within the population on the reported epidemic start date. We show that the exclusion of asymptomatic cases and cases with undocumented onset dates can lead to an underestimation of the reproduction number which, in turn, could negatively impact control strategies implemented by public health authorities. We highlight the need for properly documenting newly emerging pathogens in immunologically naive populations and the importance of identifying the route of disease introduction.

A Model for a Chikungunya Outbreak in a Rural Cambodian Setting: Implications for Disease Control in Uninfected Areas

PubMed Central

Duong, Veasna; Ly, Sowath; Ngan, Chantha; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

2014-01-01

Following almost 30 years of relative silence, chikungunya fever reemerged in Kenya in 2004. It subsequently spread to the islands of the Indian Ocean, reaching Southeast Asia in 2006. The virus was first detected in Cambodia in 2011 and a large outbreak occurred in the village of Trapeang Roka Kampong Speu Province in March 2012, in which 44% of the villagers had a recent infection biologically confirmed. The epidemic curve was constructed from the number of biologically-confirmed CHIKV cases per day determined from the date of fever onset, which was self-reported during a data collection campaign conducted in the village after the outbreak. All individuals participating in the campaign had infections confirmed by laboratory analysis, allowing for the identification of asymptomatic cases and those with an unreported date of fever onset. We develop a stochastic model explicitly including such cases, all of whom do not appear on the epidemic curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the outbreak to be 6.46 (95% C.I. [6.24, 6.78]). We show that this estimate is particularly sensitive to changes in the biting rate and mosquito longevity. Our model also indicates that the infection was more widespread within the population on the reported epidemic start date. We show that the exclusion of asymptomatic cases and cases with undocumented onset dates can lead to an underestimation of the reproduction number which, in turn, could negatively impact control strategies implemented by public health authorities. We highlight the need for properly documenting newly emerging pathogens in immunologically naive populations and the importance of identifying the route of disease introduction. PMID:25210729

Hormone levels predict individual differences in reproductive success in a passerine bird.

PubMed

Ouyang, Jenny Q; Sharp, Peter J; Dawson, Alistair; Quetting, Michael; Hau, Michaela

2011-08-22

Hormones mediate major physiological and behavioural components of the reproductive phenotype of individuals. To understand basic evolutionary processes in the hormonal regulation of reproductive traits, we need to know whether, and during which reproductive phases, individual variation in hormone concentrations relates to fitness in natural populations. We related circulating concentrations of prolactin and corticosterone to parental behaviour and reproductive success during both the pre-breeding and the chick-rearing stages in both individuals of pairs of free-living house sparrows, Passer domesticus. Prolactin and baseline corticosterone concentrations in pre-breeding females, and prolactin concentrations in pre-breeding males, predicted total number of fledglings. When the strong effect of lay date on total fledgling number was corrected for, only pre-breeding baseline corticosterone, but not prolactin, was negatively correlated with the reproductive success of females. During the breeding season, nestling provisioning rates of both sexes were negatively correlated with stress-induced corticosterone levels. Lastly, individuals of both sexes with low baseline corticosterone before and high baseline corticosterone during breeding raised the most offspring, suggesting that either the plasticity of this trait contributes to reproductive success or that high parental effort leads to increased hormone concentrations. Thus hormone concentrations both before and during breeding, as well as their seasonal dynamics, predict reproductive success, suggesting that individual variation in absolute concentrations and in plasticity is functionally significant, and, if heritable, may be a target of selection.

Understanding the Effects of Mental Health on Reproductive Health Service Use: A Mixed Methods Approach

PubMed Central

Bell, Sue Anne; Lori, Jody; Redman, Richard; Seng, Julia

2016-01-01

Appropriate and woman-led health care for displaced women is essential to respecting basic human rights. In this paper, we describe the results of an analysis of the association between mental health and reproductive health service use from a sample of Congolese refugee women residing in short and long term camps in Rwanda, with a post-hoc qualitative potion added to expand upon the data-based results. Our findings suggest that structural factors including health policy initiatives affect or even inhibit individual care choices. PMID:26086238

Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I. Definition and calculation of R0

PubMed Central

Pellis, Lorenzo; Ball, Frank; Trapman, Pieter

2012-01-01

The basic reproduction number R0 is one of the most important quantities in epidemiology. However, for epidemic models with explicit social structure involving small mixing units such as households, its definition is not straightforward and a wealth of other threshold parameters has appeared in the literature. In this paper, we use branching processes to define R0, we apply this definition to models with households or other more complex social structures and we provide methods for calculating it. PMID:22085761

Global stability for an HIV-1 infection model with Beddington-DeAngelis incidence rate and CTL immune response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Cuifang; Huang, Lihong; Yuan, Zhaohui

2014-01-01

In this paper, an HIV-1 infection model with Beddington-DeAngelis incidence rate and CTL immune response is investigated. One main feature of this model is that an eclipse stage for the infected cells is included and a portion of these cells is reverted to uninfected cells. We derive the basic reproduction number R1 and the immune response reproduction number R2 for the HIV-1 infection model. By constructing Lyapunov functions, the global stabilities for the equilibria have been analyzed.

Methods in molecular biology: plant cytogenetics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cytogenetic studies have contributed greatly to our understanding of genetics, biology, reproduction, and evolution. From early studies in basic chromosome behavior the field has expanded enabling whole genome analysis to the manipulation of chromosomes and their organization. This book covers a ran...

DEVELOPMENTAL EFFECTS OF DIETARY SOY PHYTOESTROGENS

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of the project is to conduct a series of experiments to determine whether developmental exposure to dietary phytochemicals that have estrogenic activity will affect central nervous system and reproductive system functions later in life. The basic design is, in additio...

An evaluation of parturition indices in fishers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frost, H.C.; York, E.C.; Krohn, W.B.; Elowe, K.D.; Decker, T.A.; Powell, S.M.; Fuller, T.K.

1999-01-01

Fishers (Martes pennanti) are important forest carnivores and furbearers that are susceptible to overharvest. Traditional indices used to monitor fisher populations typically overestimate litter size and proportion of females that give birth. We evaluated the usefulness of 2 indices of reproduction to determine proportion of female fishers that gave birth in a particular year. We used female fishers of known age and reproductive histories to compare appearance of placental scars with incidence of pregnancy and litter size. Microscopic observation of freshly removed reproductive tracts correctly identified pregnant fishers and correctly estimated litter size in 3 of 4 instances, but gross observation of placental scars failed to correctly identify pregnant fishers and litter size. Microscopic observations of reproductive tracts in carcasses that were not fresh also failed to identify pregnant animals and litter size. We evaluated mean sizes of anterior nipples to see if different reproductive classes could be distinguished. Mean anterior nipple size of captive and wild fishers correctly identified current-year breeders from nonbreeders. Former breeders were misclassified in 4 of 13 instances. Presence of placental scars accurately predicted parturition in a small sample size of fishers, but absence of placental scars did not signify that a female did not give birth. In addition to enabling the estimation of parturition rates in live animals more accurately than traditional indices, mean anterior nipple size also provided an estimate of the percentage of adult females that successfully raised young. Though using mean anterior nipple size to index reproductive success looks promising, additional data are needed to evaluate effects of using dried, stretched pelts on nipple size for management purposes.

Bioinformatics for spermatogenesis: annotation of male reproduction based on proteomics

PubMed Central

Zhou, Tao; Zhou, Zuo-Min; Guo, Xue-Jiang

2013-01-01

Proteomics strategies have been widely used in the field of male reproduction, both in basic and clinical research. Bioinformatics methods are indispensable in proteomics-based studies and are used for data presentation, database construction and functional annotation. In the present review, we focus on the functional annotation of gene lists obtained through qualitative or quantitative methods, summarizing the common and male reproduction specialized proteomics databases. We introduce several integrated tools used to find the hidden biological significance from the data obtained. We further describe in detail the information on male reproduction derived from Gene Ontology analyses, pathway analyses and biomedical analyses. We provide an overview of bioinformatics annotations in spermatogenesis, from gene function to biological function and from biological function to clinical application. On the basis of recently published proteomics studies and associated data, we show that bioinformatics methods help us to discover drug targets for sperm motility and to scan for cancer-testis genes. In addition, we summarize the online resources relevant to male reproduction research for the exploration of the regulation of spermatogenesis. PMID:23852026

DOH to integrate reproductive health in health care delivery.

PubMed

According to a Department of Health (DOH) official speaking at the recent Reproductive Health Advocacy Forum in Zamboanga City, the concept of reproductive health (RH) is now on the way to being fully integrated into the Philippines' primary health care system. The DOH is also developing integrated information, education, and communication material for an intensified advocacy campaign on RH among target groups in communities. The forum was held to enhance the knowledge and practice of RH among health, population and development program managers, field workers, and local government units. In this new RH framework, family planning becomes just one of many concerns of the RH package of services which includes maternal and child health, sexuality education, the prevention and treatment of abortion complications, prevention of violence against women, and the treatment of reproductive tract infections. Of concern, however, the Asian economic crisis has led the Philippine government to reduce funding, jeopardizing the public sector delivery of basic services, including reproductive health care. The crisis has also forced other governments in the region to reassess their priorities and redirect their available resources into projects which are practical and sustainable.

Health sector reform and reproductive health in Latin America and the Caribbean: strengthening the links.

PubMed Central

Langer, A.; Nigenda, G.; Catino, J.

2000-01-01

Many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are currently reforming their national health sectors and also implementing a comprehensive approach to reproductive health care. Three regional workshops to explore how health sector reform could improve reproductive health services have revealed the inherently complex, competing, and political nature of health sector reform and reproductive health. The objectives of reproductive health care can run parallel to those of health sector reform in that both are concerned with promoting equitable access to high quality care by means of integrated approaches to primary health care, and by the involvement of the public in setting health sector priorities. However, there is a serious risk that health reforms will be driven mainly by financial and/or political considerations and not by the need to improve the quality of health services as a basic human right. With only limited changes to the health systems in many Latin American and Caribbean countries and a handful of examples of positive progress resulting from reforms, the gap between rhetoric and practice remains wide. PMID:10859860

Cumulative birth rates with linked assisted reproductive technology cycles.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara; Brown, Morton B; Wantman, Ethan; Lederman, Avi; Gibbons, William; Schattman, Glenn L; Lobo, Rogerio A; Leach, Richard E; Stern, Judy E

2012-06-28

Live-birth rates after treatment with assisted reproductive technology have traditionally been reported on a per-cycle basis. For women receiving continued treatment, cumulative success rates are a more important measure. We linked data from cycles of assisted reproductive technology in the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System database for the period from 2004 through 2009 to individual women in order to estimate cumulative live-birth rates. Conservative estimates assumed that women who did not return for treatment would not have a live birth; optimal estimates assumed that these women would have live-birth rates similar to those for women continuing treatment. The data were from 246,740 women, with 471,208 cycles and 140,859 live births. Live-birth rates declined with increasing maternal age and increasing cycle number with autologous, but not donor, oocytes. By the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of live-birth rates with autologous oocytes had declined from 63.3% and 74.6%, respectively, for women younger than 31 years of age to 18.6% and 27.8% for those 41 or 42 years of age and to 6.6% and 11.3% for those 43 years of age or older. When donor oocytes were used, the rates were higher than 60% and 80%, respectively, for all ages. Rates were higher with blastocyst embryos (day of transfer, 5 or 6) than with cleavage embryos (day of transfer, 2 or 3). At the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of cumulative live-birth rates were, respectively, 42.7% and 65.3% for transfer of cleavage embryos and 52.4% and 80.7% for transfer of blastocyst embryos when fresh autologous oocytes were used. Our results indicate that live-birth rates approaching natural fecundity can be achieved by means of assisted reproductive technology when there are favorable patient and embryo characteristics. Live-birth rates among older women are lower than those among younger women when autologous oocytes are used but are similar to the rates among young women when donor oocytes are used. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology.).

Shoreline development and degradation of coastal fish reproduction habitats.

PubMed

Sundblad, Göran; Bergström, Ulf

2014-12-01

Coastal development has severely affected habitats and biodiversity during the last century, but quantitative estimates of the impacts are usually lacking. We utilize predictive habitat modeling and mapping of human pressures to estimate the cumulative long-term effects of coastal development in relation to fish habitats. Based on aerial photographs since the 1960s, shoreline development rates were estimated in the Stockholm archipelago in the Baltic Sea. By combining shoreline development rates with spatial predictions of fish reproduction habitats, we estimated annual habitat degradation rates for three of the most common coastal fish species, northern pike (Esox lucius), Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The results showed that shoreline constructions were concentrated to the reproduction habitats of these species. The estimated degradation rates, where a degraded habitat was defined as having ≥3 constructions per 100 m shoreline, were on average 0.5 % of available habitats per year and about 1 % in areas close to larger population centers. Approximately 40 % of available habitats were already degraded in 2005. These results provide an example of how many small construction projects over time may have a vast impact on coastal fish populations.

Surrogate mothering: exploitation or empowerment?

PubMed

Purdy, Laura M

1989-01-01

The morality of surrogate mothering is analyzed from a "consequentialist" framework which attempts to separate those consequences that invariably accompany a given act from those that accompany it only in particular circumstances. Critics of surrogacy argue that it transfers the burden and risk of pregnancy onto another woman, separates sex and reproduction, and separates reproduction and childrearing; none of these acts is necessarily wrong, either morally or for women's or society's basic interests. While surrogate mothering can be rendered immoral if women are coerced into the practice or become victims of subordinating or penalizing contracts, it has the potential to empower women and increase their status in society by providing a job that is less risky and more enjoyable than other jobs women are forced to take and by achieving greater social recognition for reproductive labor.

Pre-breeding blood urea nitrogen concentration and reproductive performance of Bonsmara heifers within different management systems.

PubMed

Tshuma, Takula; Holm, Dietmar Erik; Fosgate, Geoffrey Theodore; Lourens, Dirk Cornelius

2014-08-01

This study investigated the association between pre-breeding blood urea nitrogen (BUN) concentration and reproductive performance of beef heifers within different management systems in South Africa. Bonsmara heifers (n = 369) from five herds with different estimated levels of nitrogen intake during the month prior to the commencement of the breeding season were sampled in November and December 2010 to determine BUN concentrations. Body mass, age, body condition score (BCS) and reproductive tract score (RTS) were recorded at study enrolment. Trans-rectal ultrasound and/or palpation was performed 4-8 weeks after a 3-month breeding season to estimate the stage of pregnancy. Days to pregnancy (DTP) was defined as the number of days from the start of the breeding season until the estimated conception date. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards survival analysis were performed to estimate the association of pre-breeding BUN concentration with subsequent pregnancy and DTP, respectively. After stratifying for herd and adjusting for age, heifers with relatively higher pre-breeding BUN concentration took longer to become pregnant when compared to those with relatively lower BUN concentration (P = 0.011). In the herd with the highest estimated nitrogen intake (n = 143), heifers with relatively higher BUN were less likely to become pregnant (P = 0.013) and if they did, it was only later during the breeding season (P = 0.017), after adjusting for body mass. These associations were not present in the herd (n = 106) with the lowest estimated nitrogen intake (P > 0.500). It is concluded that Bonsmara heifers with relatively higher pre-breeding BUN concentration, might be at a disadvantage because of this negative impact on reproductive performance, particularly when the production system includes high levels of nitrogen intake.

Building integral projection models: a user's guide.

PubMed

Rees, Mark; Childs, Dylan Z; Ellner, Stephen P

2014-05-01

In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Coral reef fish populations can persist without immigration

PubMed Central

Salles, Océane C.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Joannides, Marc; Barbu, Corentin M.; Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo; Almany, Glenn R.; Berumen, Michael L.; Thorrold, Simon R.; Jones, Geoffrey P.; Planes, Serge

2015-01-01

Determining the conditions under which populations may persist requires accurate estimates of demographic parameters, including immigration, local reproductive success, and mortality rates. In marine populations, empirical estimates of these parameters are rare, due at least in part to the pelagic dispersal stage common to most marine organisms. Here, we evaluate population persistence and turnover for a population of orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, at Kimbe Island in Papua New Guinea. All fish in the population were sampled and genotyped on five occasions at 2-year intervals spanning eight years. The genetic data enabled estimates of reproductive success retained in the same population (reproductive success to self-recruitment), reproductive success exported to other subpopulations (reproductive success to local connectivity), and immigration and mortality rates of sub-adults and adults. Approximately 50% of the recruits were assigned to parents from the Kimbe Island population and this was stable through the sampling period. Stability in the proportion of local and immigrant settlers is likely due to: low annual mortality rates and stable egg production rates, and the short larval stages and sensory capacities of reef fish larvae. Biannual mortality rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.55 and varied significantly spatially. We used these data to parametrize a model that estimated the probability of the Kimbe Island population persisting in the absence of immigration. The Kimbe Island population was found to persist without significant immigration. Model results suggest the island population persists because the largest of the subpopulations are maintained due to having low mortality and high self-recruitment rates. Our results enable managers to appropriately target and scale actions to maximize persistence likelihood as disturbance frequencies increase. PMID:26582017

Coral reef fish populations can persist without immigration.

PubMed

Salles, Océane C; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Joannides, Marc; Barbu, Corentin M; Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo; Almany, Glenn R; Berumen, Michael L; Thorrold, Simon R; Jones, Geoffrey P; Planes, Serge

2015-11-22

Determining the conditions under which populations may persist requires accurate estimates of demographic parameters, including immigration, local reproductive success, and mortality rates. In marine populations, empirical estimates of these parameters are rare, due at least in part to the pelagic dispersal stage common to most marine organisms. Here, we evaluate population persistence and turnover for a population of orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, at Kimbe Island in Papua New Guinea. All fish in the population were sampled and genotyped on five occasions at 2-year intervals spanning eight years. The genetic data enabled estimates of reproductive success retained in the same population (reproductive success to self-recruitment), reproductive success exported to other subpopulations (reproductive success to local connectivity), and immigration and mortality rates of sub-adults and adults. Approximately 50% of the recruits were assigned to parents from the Kimbe Island population and this was stable through the sampling period. Stability in the proportion of local and immigrant settlers is likely due to: low annual mortality rates and stable egg production rates, and the short larval stages and sensory capacities of reef fish larvae. Biannual mortality rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.55 and varied significantly spatially. We used these data to parametrize a model that estimated the probability of the Kimbe Island population persisting in the absence of immigration. The Kimbe Island population was found to persist without significant immigration. Model results suggest the island population persists because the largest of the subpopulations are maintained due to having low mortality and high self-recruitment rates. Our results enable managers to appropriately target and scale actions to maximize persistence likelihood as disturbance frequencies increase. © 2015 The Author(s).

The frequency of sex in fungi

PubMed Central

James, Timothy Y.

2016-01-01

Fungi are a diverse group of organisms with a huge variation in reproductive strategy. While almost all species can reproduce sexually, many reproduce asexually most of the time. When sexual reproduction does occur, large variation exists in the amount of in- and out-breeding. While budding yeast is expected to outcross only once every 10 000 generations, other fungi are obligate outcrossers with well-mixed panmictic populations. In this review, we give an overview of the costs and benefits of sexual and asexual reproduction in fungi, and the mechanisms that evolved in fungi to reduce the costs of either mode. The proximate molecular mechanisms potentiating outcrossing and meiosis appear to be present in nearly all fungi, making them of little use for predicting outcrossing rates, but also suggesting the absence of true ancient asexual lineages. We review how population genetic methods can be used to estimate the frequency of sex in fungi and provide empirical data that support a mixed mode of reproduction in many species with rare to frequent sex in between rounds of mitotic reproduction. Finally, we highlight how these estimates might be affected by the fungus-specific mechanisms that evolved to reduce the costs of sexual and asexual reproduction. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Weird sex: the underappreciated diversity of sexual reproduction’. PMID:27619703

Subordinate male meerkats prospect for extra-group paternity: alternative reproductive tactics in a cooperative mammal

PubMed Central

Young, Andrew J; Spong, Goran; Clutton-Brock, Tim

2007-01-01

In cooperatively breeding species, subordinates typically suffer strong constraints on within-group reproduction. While numerous studies have highlighted the additional fitness benefits that subordinates might accrue through helping, few have considered the possibility that subordinates may also seek extra-group matings to improve their chances of actually breeding. Here, we show that subordinate males in cooperative meerkat, Suricata suricatta, societies conduct frequent extraterritorial forays, during periods of peak female fertility, which give rise to matings with females in other groups. Genetic analyses reveal that extra-group paternity (EGP) accrued while prospecting contributes substantially to the reproductive success of subordinates: yielding the majority of their offspring (approx. 70%); significantly reducing their age at first reproduction and allowing them to breed without dispersing. We estimate that prospecting subordinates sire 20–25% of all young in the population. While recent studies on cooperative birds indicate that dominant males accrue the majority of EGP, our findings reveal that EGP can also arise from alternative reproductive tactics employed exclusively by subordinates. It is important, therefore, that future attempts to estimate the fitness of subordinate males in animal societies quantify the distribution of extra-group as well as within-group paternity, because a substantial proportion of the reproductive success of subordinates may otherwise go undetected. PMID:17456454

Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

2010-01-01

The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate-year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even-numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ?? 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ?? 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ?? 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ?? 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta-analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second-year subadults, and then by first-year subadults. We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to estimate population rate of change. Modeling indicated that ??t (??t is the finite rate of population change estimated using the reparameterized JollySeber estimator Pradel 1996) was either stationary (LAS and SIE) or increasing after an initial decrease (ELD and SKC). Mean estimated ??t for the 4 study areas was 1.007 (95 CI 0.9521.066) for ELD; 0.973 (95 CI 0.9461.001) for LAS; 0.992 (95 CI 0.9661.018) for SIE; and 1.006 (95 CI 0.9471.068) for SKC. The best meta-analysis model of population trend indicated that ?? varied across time but was similar in trend among the study areas. Our estimates of realized population change (??t; Franklin et al. 2004), which we estimated as the product 1 ?? ??3 ?? ??4 ?? .?? ??k -1, were based on estimates of ??t from individual study areas and did not require estimating annual population size for each study area. Trends represented the proportion of the population size in the first ye

The eastern box turtle at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center 1940s to the present: another view

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henry, P.F.P.

2003-01-01

Several long-term mark recapture studies have been conducted on box turtles (Terrapene c. carolina) providing valuable information on life span, basic demography, home range, and apparent effects of environmental changes on box turtle survival. One of the longest studied populations was first marked in 1942 on the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center in Maryland, and has been surveyed every 10 years until 1995. The age structure and gender ratio of these turtles in the field may support differential habitat use and survival estimates. A few of the turtles first marked during the 1945 study are still observed throughout the Center. Data collected from turtles marked in the more upland habitats during 1985-2002 indicate a younger age class distribution than that observed in the more protected biota of the bottomland floodplain study area. Extrapolating ages of turtles described in data collected throughout the long-term study, it was estimated that turtles, both males and females, can show reproduction-intent behaviors at ages greater than 54 years old. It is suggested that count data collection be continued on a more frequent cycle, extending over a larger part of the Center.

Estimating intermittent individual spawning behavior via disaggregating group data

EPA Science Inventory

In order to understand fish biology and reproduction it is important to know the fecundity patterns of individual fish, as frequently established by recording the output of mixed-sex groups of fish in a laboratory setting. However, for understanding individual reproductive health...

Classical Markov Chains: A Unifying Framework for Understanding Avian Reproductive Success

EPA Science Inventory

Traditional methods for monitoring and analysis of avian nesting success have several important shortcomings, including 1) inability to handle multiple classes of nest failure, and 2) inability to provide estimates of annual reproductive success (because birds can, and typically ...

Reproduction trends and the emergence of moral panic.

PubMed

Hanmer, J

1987-01-01

Are we witnessing a moral panic or a moral evaluation in the responses to the new reproductive technologies? Locating women in reproductive technology is a particularly powerful way into a discussion of values and consequences, intended or unintended. Twelve areas are isolated for discussion beginning with issues of definition and location: What is reproductive and genetic engineering? and How does human reproduction fit into bio-technological developments generally? Next issues are raised about how the new developments are being shaped ideologically and how they are being promoted by the state. A series of legal issues affecting women, men, children, embryos and fetuses follow. The focus then shifts to the way women are ideologically constructed: Why is there an assumption that woman = mother, and mother = heterosexual married or stable cohabiting woman?--and socially controlled: Why assume technological change in human reproductive processes means the basic subordination of women to men will not alter? The usefulness of the new technologies in relieving involuntary childlessness is then queried which leads on to a questioning of whether these developments are qualitatively different from other technologies used in human reproduction. Futuristic concerns such as the importance of the male pregnancy and the social consequences of fully medicalising human reproduction are raised. The last area to be considered is protest by women and suggested alternative approaches to increase the social visibility and recognition of the needs and interest of women in the current and potential use of the new medical and scientific developments.

Reproductive biology of the black coral Antipathella wollastoni (Cnidaria: Antipatharia) in the Azores (NE Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakka, Maria; Orejas, Covadonga; Sampaio, Iris; Monteiro, João; Parra, Hugo; Carreiro-Silva, Marina

2017-11-01

Antipathella wollastoni is an antipatharian species common to Macaronesia, occurring in depths between 20 and 1425 m. Despite its importance as a habitat-forming species, there is no information about its basic biology. The aim of the current study is to describe its reproductive strategy, gametogenic cycle and reproductive timing. Sampling was performed monthly on six tagged colonies during one year and specimens were histologically processed. A. wollastoni was found to be a gonochoric broadcast spawner. Gametogenesis took place within the primary transversal mesenteries, and followed an annual cycle. The reproductive season coincided with an increase in seawater temperature but spawning, inferred from the disappearance of gametes, likely happened after the sea surface temperature peak of the year (September 2009). Polyp fecundity ranged from 1 to 309 oocytes/polyp. A decrease in polyp fecundity was detected in samples at the higher pre-spawning maturity stage, indicating possible repetitive spawning or oocyte absorption. Intra-colonial comparisons revealed a longer duration of the reproductive cycle in the medial colony section, and a gradient of increased oocyte size towards the apical section, possibly due to intra-colonial differences in energy allocation between reproduction and other biological processes, or as a strategy against predation on gametes/larvae. Colony height was positively correlated with polyp fecundity indicating that the reproductive output increases with colony size.

Global threshold dynamics of an SIVS model with waning vaccine-induced immunity and nonlinear incidence.

PubMed

Yang, Junyuan; Martcheva, Maia; Wang, Lin

2015-10-01

Vaccination is the most effective method of preventing the spread of infectious diseases. For many diseases, vaccine-induced immunity is not life long and the duration of immunity is not always fixed. In this paper, we propose an SIVS model taking the waning of vaccine-induced immunity and general nonlinear incidence into consideration. Our analysis shows that the model exhibits global threshold dynamics in the sense that if the basic reproduction number is less than 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable implying the disease dies out; while if the basic reproduction number is larger than 1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable indicating that the disease persists. This global threshold result indicates that if the vaccination coverage rate is below a critical value, then the disease always persists and only if the vaccination coverage rate is above the critical value, the disease can be eradicated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vector-borne diseases models with residence times - A Lagrangian perspective.

PubMed

Bichara, Derdei; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2016-11-01

A multi-patch and multi-group modeling framework describing the dynamics of a class of diseases driven by the interactions between vectors and hosts structured by groups is formulated. Hosts' dispersal is modeled in terms of patch-residence times with the nonlinear dynamics taking into account the effective patch-host size. The residence times basic reproduction number R 0 is computed and shown to depend on the relative environmental risk of infection. The model is robust, that is, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) if R 0 ≤1 and a unique interior endemic equilibrium is shown to exist that is GAS whenever R 0 >1 whenever the configuration of host-vector interactions is irreducible. The effects of patchiness and groupness, a measure of host-vector heterogeneous structure, on the basic reproduction number R 0 , are explored. Numerical simulations are carried out to highlight the effects of residence times on disease prevalence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The final size of a SARS epidemic model without quarantine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Roeger, Lih-Ing W.

2007-09-01

In this article, we present the continuing work on a SARS model without quarantine by Hsu and Hsieh [Sze-Bi Hsu, Ying-Hen Hsieh, Modeling intervention measures and severity-dependent public response during severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66 (2006) 627-647]. An "acting basic reproductive number" [psi] is used to predict the final size of the susceptible population. We find the relation among the final susceptible population size S[infinity], the initial susceptible population S0, and [psi]. If [psi]>1, the disease will prevail and the final size of the susceptible, S[infinity], becomes zero; therefore, everyone in the population will be infected eventually. If [psi]<1, the disease dies out, and then S[infinity]>0 which means part of the population will never be infected. Also, when S[infinity]>0, S[infinity] is increasing with respect to the initial susceptible population S0, and decreasing with respect to the acting basic reproductive number [psi].

A Malaria Transmission Model with Temperature-Dependent Incubation Period.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-05-01

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and is transmitted among humans by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Climate factors have significant impact on both mosquito life cycle and parasite development. To consider the temperature sensitivity of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of malaria parasites, we formulate a delay differential equations model with a periodic time delay. We derive the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] and establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics in terms of [Formula: see text], that is, the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]; and the model system admits a unique positive periodic solution which is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we parameterize the model with data from Maputo Province, Mozambique, and simulate the long-term behavior of solutions. The simulation result is consistent with the obtained analytic result. In addition, we find that using the time-averaged EIP may underestimate the basic reproduction ratio.

Initiatives: Nigeria. Traditional healers and PPFN in wedlock.

PubMed

Adejo, A A

1996-04-01

The Planned Parenthood Federation of Nigeria (PPFN) runs a program to integrate modern contraception into the practice of traditional medicine. Under the project, traditional healers, largely male, are trained on the ideals of nonprescriptive contraceptives such as condoms, the oral contraceptive pill, and foaming tablets, and how to offer such services to their clients. They participate in a two-week, highly participatory training course which confers a comprehensive introduction to basic and integrated reproductive health care service delivery, simple human anatomy and physiology, and human reproduction. The benefits of modern contraception are reviewed along with community mobilization and counseling. Simple communication techniques such as songs, drama, and role play are discussed. Information on maternal and child health and child survival, basic hygiene, nutrition, and AIDS is also incorporated into the course. 136 traditional healers have thus far been trained in three local government areas (LGAs) of Lagos State and 150 in six other LGAs in Benue State. The project has resulted in strong referral linkages between traditional healers, modern practitioners, and PPFN.

Access To Essential Maternal Health Interventions and Human Rights Violations among Vulnerable Communities in Eastern Burma

PubMed Central

Mullany, Luke C; Lee, Catherine I; Yone, Lin; Paw, Palae; Oo, Eh Kalu Shwe; Maung, Cynthia; Lee, Thomas J; Beyrer, Chris

2008-01-01

Background Health indicators are poor and human rights violations are widespread in eastern Burma. Reproductive and maternal health indicators have not been measured in this setting but are necessary as part of an evaluation of a multi-ethnic pilot project exploring strategies to increase access to essential maternal health interventions. The goal of this study is to estimate coverage of maternal health services prior to this project and associations between exposure to human rights violations and access to such services. Methods and Findings Selected communities in the Shan, Mon, Karen, and Karenni regions of eastern Burma that were accessible to community-based organizations operating from Thailand were surveyed to estimate coverage of reproductive, maternal, and family planning services, and to assess exposure to household-level human rights violations within the pilot-project target population. Two-stage cluster sampling surveys among ever-married women of reproductive age (15–45 y) documented access to essential antenatal care interventions, skilled attendance at birth, postnatal care, and family planning services. Mid-upper arm circumference, hemoglobin by color scale, and Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia by rapid diagnostic dipstick were measured. Exposure to human rights violations in the prior 12 mo was recorded. Between September 2006 and January 2007, 2,914 surveys were conducted. Eighty-eight percent of women reported a home delivery for their last pregnancy (within previous 5 y). Skilled attendance at birth (5.1%), any (39.3%) or ≥ 4 (16.7%) antenatal visits, use of an insecticide-treated bed net (21.6%), and receipt of iron supplements (11.8%) were low. At the time of the survey, more than 60% of women had hemoglobin level estimates ≤ 11.0 g/dl and 7.2% were Pf positive. Unmet need for contraceptives exceeded 60%. Violations of rights were widely reported: 32.1% of Karenni households reported forced labor and 10% of Karen households had been forced to move. Among Karen households, odds of anemia were 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–2.40) times higher among women reporting forced displacement, and 7.47 (95% CI 2.21–25.3) higher among those exposed to food security violations. The odds of receiving no antenatal care services were 5.94 (95% CI 2.23–15.8) times higher among those forcibly displaced. Conclusions Coverage of basic maternal health interventions is woefully inadequate in these selected populations and substantially lower than even the national estimates for Burma, among the lowest in the region. Considerable political, financial, and human resources are necessary to improve access to maternal health care in these communities. PMID:19108601

Bioenergetic components of reproductive effort in viviparous snakes: costs of vitellogenesis exceed costs of pregnancy.

PubMed

Van Dyke, James U; Beaupre, Steven J

2011-12-01

Reproductive effort has been defined as the proportion of an organism's energy budget that is allocated to reproduction over a biologically meaningful time period. Historically, studies of reproductive bioenergetics considered energy content of gametes, but not costs of gamete production. Although metabolic costs of vitellogenesis (MCV) fundamentally reflect the primary bioenergetic cost of reproductive allocation in female reptiles, the few investigations that have considered costs of reproductive allocation have focused on metabolic costs of pregnancy (MCP) in viviparous species. We define MCP as energetic costs incurred by pregnant females, including all costs of maintaining gestation conditions necessary for embryogenesis. MCP by our definition do not include fetal costs of embryogenesis. We measured metabolic rates in five species of viviparous snakes (Agkistrodon contortrix, Boa constrictor, Eryx colubrinus, Nerodia sipedon, and Thamnophis sirtalis) during vitellogenesis and pregnancy in order to estimate MCV and MCP. Across all species, MCV were responsible for 30% increases in maternal metabolism. Phylogenetically-independent contrasts showed that MCV were significantly greater in B. constrictor than in other species, likely because B. constrictor yolk energy content was greater than that of other species. Estimates of MCP were not significantly different from zero in any species. In viviparous snakes, MCV appear to represent significant bioenergetic expenditures, while MCP do not. We suggest that MCV, together with yolk energy content, represent the most significant component of reptilian reproductive effort, and therefore deserve greater attention than MCP in studies of reptilian reproductive bioenergetics. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Controlling birth: science, politics, and public policy.

PubMed

Russo, Nancy Felipe; Denious, Jean E

2005-03-01

Reproductive technologies raise a host of social and legal issues that challenge basic values and create intense controversy. If researchers wish to inform public policies related to reproductive technologies, they must understand how the scientific enterprise is being manipulated and research findings are being misrepresented to justify a particular social agenda and restrict access to contraception and abortion. To counter these distortions, scientists must defend the science advisory process, be involved in dissemination of their research findings beyond simply publication in scientific journals, and actively work to ensure that the findings are not misrepresented to the public.

[Quality criteria and indicators of women's health care].

PubMed

Mandú, Edir Nei Teixeira

2005-04-01

In this article, quality criteria and indicators of the basic care of the woman's health are presented with emphasis on the sexual and reproductive health that can be used in the management of supervision practices. In its elaboration, formulations regarding the evaluating practice, the managerial work, the full care to the woman's health (sexual and reproductive) are taken into consideration, besides proposals of the Health Ministry for monitoring the attention to this specific group. It focuses mainly on care and vigilance actions as to the women's health and on organizational and managerial aspects of such care.

Body condition score of Nellore beef cows: a heritable measure to improve the selection of reproductive and maternal traits.

PubMed

Fernandes, A F A; Neves, H H R; Carvalheiro, R; Oliveira, J A; Queiroz, S A

2015-08-01

Despite the economic importance of beef cattle production in Brazil, female reproductive performance, which is strongly associated with production efficiency, is not included in the selection index of most breeding programmes due to low heritability and difficulty in measure. The body condition score (BCS) could be used as an indicator of these traits. However, so far little is known about the feasibility of using BCS as a selection tool for reproductive performance in beef cattle. In this study, we investigated the sources of variation in the BCS of Nellore beef cows, quantified its association with reproductive and maternal traits and estimated its heritability. BCS was analysed using a logistic model that included the following effects: contemporary group at weaning, cow weight and hip height, calving order, reconception together with the weight and scores of conformation and early finishing assigned to calves at weaning. In the genetic analysis, variance components of BCS were estimated through Bayesian inference by fitting an animal model that also included the aforementioned effects. The results showed that BCS was significantly associated with all of the reproductive and maternal variables analysed. The estimated posterior mean of heritability of BCS was 0.24 (highest posterior density interval at 95%: 0.093 to 0.385), indicating an involvement of additive gene action in its determination. The present findings show that BCS can be used as a selection criterion for Nellore females.

Current trends of reproductive immunology practices in in vitro fertilization (IVF) - a first world survey using IVF-Worldwide.com.

PubMed

Kwak-Kim, Joanne; Han, Ae Ra; Gilman-Sachs, Alice; Fishel, Simon; Leong, Milton; Shoham, Zeev

2013-01-01

Reproductive immunology has evolved from basic research studies to clinical applications. In this study, we aim to investigate the actual application of reproductive immunology concepts and findings in clinical reproductive medicine such as recurrent pregnancy losses (RPL), repeated implantation failures (RIF), and failed in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles. A web-based survey was performed on IVF-Worldwide.com. Collected data were analyzed by the computerized software. A significant proportion of physicians recommend thrombophilia workups (86%), parental genetic study (79%), and immunologic evaluations (69%) to IVF candidates who have a history of RPL or chemical pregnancy losses. IVF physicians consider an immunologic workup when patients have two (30%) or three (21%) failed IVF cycles. Assays for anticardiolipin antibody, lupus anticoagulant, thyroid peroxidase antibody, and antinuclear antibody are the four most commonly ordered immunologic tests for RPL (88, 84, 50, 47% each) and RIF (68, 63, 38, 38% each). Cellular immune evaluations, such as NK assay, human leukocyte antigen study, Th1/Th2 study or immunophenotype assay, are less commonly ordered. Reproductive immunology principles have been applied to the clinical management of RPL, RIF, and failed IVF cycles, and a significant proportion of IVF physicians acknowledge the importance of immunologic alterations with reproductive outcomes. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

The stem cell factor (SCF)/c-KIT system in carcinogenesis of reproductive tissues: What does the hormonal regulation tell us?

PubMed

Figueira, Marília I; Cardoso, Henrique J; Correia, Sara; Maia, Cláudio J; Socorro, Sílvia

2017-10-01

The tyrosine kinase receptor c-KIT and its ligand, the stem cell factor (SCF) are expressed in several tissues of male and female reproductive tract, playing an important role in the regulation of basic biological processes. The activation of c-KIT by SCF controls, cell survival and death, cell differentiation and migration. Also, the SCF/c-KIT system has been implicated in carcinogenesis of reproductive tissues due to its altered expression pattern or overactivation in consequence of gain-of-functions mutations. Over the years, it has also been shown that hormones, the primary regulators of reproductive function and causative agents in the case of hormone-dependent cancers, are also able to control the SCF/c-KIT tissue levels. Therefore, it is liable to suppose that disturbed SCF/c-KIT expression driven by (de)regulated hormone actions can be a relevant step towards carcinogenesis. The present review describes the SCF and c-KIT expression in cancers of reproductive tissues, discussing the implications of the hormonal regulation of the SCF/c-KIT system in cancer development. Understanding the relationship between hormonal imbalance and the SCF/c-KIT expression and activity would be relevant in the context of novel therapeutic approaches in reproductive cancers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproductive Science for High School Students: A Shared Curriculum Model to Enhance Student Success.

PubMed

Castle, Megan; Cleveland, Charlotte; Gordon, Diana; Jones, Lynda; Zelinski, Mary; Winter, Patricia; Chang, Jeffrey; Senegar-Mitchell, Ericka; Coutifaris, Christos; Shuda, Jamie; Mainigi, Monica; Bartolomei, Marisa; Woodruff, Teresa K

2016-07-01

The lack of a national reproductive biology curriculum leads to critical knowledge gaps in today's high school students' comprehensive understanding of human biology. The Oncofertility Consortium developed curricula that address the basic and clinical aspects of reproductive biology. Launching this academy and creating easy-to-disseminate learning modules allowed other universities to implement similar programs across the country. The expansion of this informal, extracurricular academy on reproductive health from Northwestern University to the University of California, San Diego, Oregon Health & Science University, and the University of Pennsylvania magnifies the scope of scientific learning to students who might not otherwise be exposed to this important information. To assess the experience gained from this curriculum, we polled alumni from the four centers. Data were collected anonymously from de-identified users who elected to self-report on their experiences in their respective reproductive science academy. The alumni survey asked participants to report on their current academic standing, past experiences in the academy, and future academic and career goals. The results of this national survey suggest the national oncofertility academies had a lasting impact on participants and may have contributed to student persistence in scientific learning. © 2016 by the Society for the Study of Reproduction, Inc.

The place of reconstructive tubal surgery in the era of assisted reproductive techniques.

PubMed

Gomel, Victor

2015-12-01

Assisted reproductive techniques yield high rates of success for women with tubal factor infertility. Because they are potentially effective for all categories of infertility, for two decades, clinical and basic research in infertility has been focused on IVF techniques and outcomes, rather than developing surgical techniques or training infertility subspecialists in tubal microsurgery. Nonetheless, in comparison with IVF, reconstructive tubal surgery is inexpensive and offers multiple opportunities to attempt conception. Performing laparoscopic salpingostomy prior to IVF in women with good prognosis tubal disease may improve the outcome of subsequent IVF, while offering the potential for spontaneous conception. Tubo-tubal anastomosis for reversal of tubal ligation, performed either by a microsurgical technique through a mini-laparotomy or by laparoscopy, is preferable to IVF in younger women with no other fertility factors, because it offers potentially higher cumulative pregnancy rates. Surgery is the only alternative for women with tubal factor infertility who for personal or other reasons are unable to undergo assisted reproductive techniques. Tubal reconstructive surgery and assisted reproductive techniques must be considered complementary forms of treatment for women with tubal factor infertility, and training in tubal reconstructive surgery should be an integral part of subspecialty training in reproductive endocrinology and infertility. Copyright © 2015 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The concentration of plasma metabolites varies throughout reproduction and affects offspring number in wild brown trout (Salmo trutta).

PubMed

Gauthey, Zoé; Freychet, Marine; Manicki, Aurélie; Herman, Alexandre; Lepais, Olivier; Panserat, Stéphane; Elosegi, Arturo; Tentelier, Cédric; Labonne, Jacques

2015-06-01

In wild populations, measuring energy invested in the reproduction and disentangling investment in gametes versus investment in reproductive behavior (such as intrasexual competition or intersexual preference) remain challenging. In this study, we investigated the energy expenditure in brown trout reproductive behavior by using two proxies: variation in weight and variation of plasma metabolites involved in energy production, over the course of reproductive season in a semi natural experimental river. We estimated overall reproductive success using genetic assignment at the end of the reproductive season. Results show that triglycerides and free fatty acid concentrations vary negatively during reproduction, while amino-acids and glucose concentrations remain stable. Decrease in triglyceride and free fatty acid concentrations during reproduction is not related to initial concentration levels or to weight variation. Both metabolite concentration variations and weight variations are correlated to the number of offspring produced, which could indicate that gametic and behavioral reproductive investments substantially contribute to reproductive success in wild brown trout. This study opens a path to further investigate variations in reproductive investment in wild populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[The impact of the social economic conditions on the reproduction processes].

PubMed

Leonova, N G

2007-01-01

The social economic conditions of population reproduction in the Trans-Dniester Region with the emphasis on its specifics are analyzed. The natural dynamics of population is estimated including gender and age peculiarities, marriage and divorces statistics, migration processes and population health in the region. It is shown that the population reproduction dynamics follows the natural laws and processes. The role of the post-Soviet period social economic conditions harmful to health are considered. The interdependencies between the social economic development and population reproduction are revealed. The recommendations related to the means of the further enhancement of social economic conditions as related to population reproduction in the Trans-Dniester Region are proposed.

Are reproductive and somatic senescence coupled in humans? Late, but not early, reproduction correlated with longevity in historical Sami women

PubMed Central

Helle, Samuli; Lummaa, Virpi; Jokela, Jukka

2005-01-01

Evolutionary theory of senescence emphasizes the importance of intense selection on early reproduction owing to the declining force of natural selection with age that constrains lifespan. In humans, recent studies have, however, suggested that late-life mortality might be more closely related to late rather than early reproduction, although the role of late reproduction on fitness remains unclear. We examined the association between early and late reproduction with longevity in historical post-reproductive Sami women. We also estimated the strength of natural selection on early and late reproduction using path analysis, and the effect of reproductive timing on offspring survival to adulthood and maternal risk of dying at childbirth. We found that natural selection favoured both earlier start and later cessation of reproduction, and higher total fe cundity. Maternal age at childbirth was not related to offspring or maternal survival. Interestingly, females who produced their last offspring at advanced age also lived longest, while age at first reproduction and total fecundity were unrelated to female longevity. Our results thus suggest that reproductive and somatic senescence may have been coupled in these human populations, and that selection could have favoured late reproduction. We discuss alternative hypotheses for the mechanisms which might have promoted the association between late reproduction and longevity. PMID:15875567

Phenology of brown marmorated stink bug described using female reproductive development

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Identification of insect seasonality is frequently estimated through temperature-based degree-day models. We expand on the use of a temperature-based process defining timing of life stages through the incorporation of female reproductive physiology for the invasive pentatomid species Halyomorpha hal...

Reproductive biology of the crocodile shark Pseudocarcharias kamoharai.

PubMed

Oliveira, P; Hazin, F H V; Carvalho, F; Rego, M; Coelho, R; Piercy, A; Burgess, G

2010-05-01

From February 2005 to September 2007, a total of 490 crocodile sharks Pseudocarcharias kamoharai, caught as by-catch in the swordfish and tuna longline fishery that operates in the tropical western Atlantic Ocean, was studied in regard to their reproductive biology. Maximum observed total lengths (L(T)) were 1220 and 1090 mm for females and males respectively, with a high proportion of the catch being composed of mature specimens. Sexual maturity was attained at 760-810 mm L(T) for males (L(T50) = 800 mm) and 870-980 mm L(T) for females (L(T50) = 916 mm). The size at birth was estimated at 415 mm L(T). Temporal variation in gonad morphology and mass suggests that in this region P. kamoharai, an aplacental viviparous species with oophagy, does not show a well-defined reproductive seasonality, with mating and parturition occurring possibly over an extended period of the year. Mean +/-S.D. fecundity was estimated to be 3.9 (+/- 0.6) pups per reproductive cycle.

Above-ground biomass of mangrove species. I. Analysis of models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Mário Luiz Gomes; Schaeffer-Novelli, Yara

2005-10-01

This study analyzes the above-ground biomass of Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa located in the mangroves of Bertioga (SP) and Guaratiba (RJ), Southeast Brazil. Its purpose is to determine the best regression model to estimate the total above-ground biomass and compartment (leaves, reproductive parts, twigs, branches, trunk and prop roots) biomass, indirectly. To do this, we used structural measurements such as height, diameter at breast-height (DBH), and crown area. A combination of regression types with several compositions of independent variables generated 2.272 models that were later tested. Subsequent analysis of the models indicated that the biomass of reproductive parts, branches, and prop roots yielded great variability, probably because of environmental factors and seasonality (in the case of reproductive parts). It also indicated the superiority of multiple regression to estimate above-ground biomass as it allows researchers to consider several aspects that affect above-ground biomass, specially the influence of environmental factors. This fact has been attested to the models that estimated the biomass of crown compartments.

[Intervention effects of promoting the use of contraceptives in migrant population working in factory].

PubMed

Jiang, Xiaomei; Ren, Shanshan; Hou, Liyan; He, Dian; Pang, Cheng; Cheng, Yimin

2011-01-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention program on promoting the use of contraceptives in migrant population working in factories, and to compare the difference of results between the basic intervention mode and the comprehensive intervention mode. This was an epidemiologic intervention study carried out in each 2 factories in Shenzhen and Dongguan among migrant workers by comparing the effectiveness of a baseline survey and a end-line survey. The basic intervention mode was composed of spreading contraceptives and reproductive health information, conducting education and communication and providing references to access free services from family planning clinics (IEC). The comprehensive intervention mode provided more services on face to face counseling and distributing free contraceptives. The demographic characteristics of subjects before and after surveys were comparable. Whether in the basic group or comprehensive mode group, the awareness of contraceptive/reproductive health knowledge was increased significantly after intervention (P = 0.000), and the pass rate was higher in the comprehensive intervention group (P = 0.000). The self-reported most frequently used contraceptives was condoms. The proportion of using condoms and purchasing condoms was increased after intervention (P = 0.000) from 69.7% and 67.7% before intervention to 84.9% and 90.2% after basic intervention and 87.1% and 95.1% after comprehensive intervention. The proportion of using contraceptives every time was increased from 35.7% before intervention to 38.1% after basic intervention (P = 0.018) and to 42.9% after comprehensive intervention (P = 0.000). Intervention measures based on implementing in factories were effective in promoting contraception among migrant workers, and the integration of counseling and free contraceptive services with IEC was better. Carrying on and extending this kind of intervention measures to other migrant population in similar conditions is suggested.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Emphasis on Aircraft Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

1985-01-01

Accurate modeling of flexible space structures is an important field that is currently under investigation. Parameter estimation, using methods such as maximum likelihood, is one of the ways that the model can be improved. The maximum likelihood estimator has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new developments and applications, assuming familiarity with basic estimation concepts. Some of these basic concepts are presented. The maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses are briefly discussed. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Specific examples of estimation of structural dynamics are included. Some of the major conclusions for the computed example are also developed for the analysis of flight data.

REPRODUCTIVE AND DEVELOPMENTAL EFFECTS OF CONTAMINANTS IN OVIPAROUS VERTEBRATES: WORKSHOP SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.

EPA Science Inventory

The workshop was successful in advancing the state of the science, as well as in bringing together a broad base of experience and viewpoints to advance integrations of approaches to understanding basic chemical and physiological processes, toxicological effects and mechanisms, ec...

Listening to Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeGolyer, John H.; Misik, Martha C.

Generally, teenage pregnancy is considered a detriment to society. Louisiana has the third highest rate of adolescent pregnancy of any state in the nation. The Louisiana Sex Education in Public Schools Act (1979) effectively prohibits information about the human reproductive system until the seventh grade. The basic "Choices and Changes" program…

Regeneration

Treesearch

George A. Schier; Wayne D. Shepperd; John R. Jones

1985-01-01

There are basically two approaches to regenerating aspen stands-sexual reproduction using seed, or vegetative regeneration by root suckering. In the West, root suckering is the most practical method. The advantage of having an existing, well established root system capable of producing numerous root suckers easily outweighs natural or artificial reforestation in the...

Are High School Students Prepared for a Brave New World?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blake, Deborah

1984-01-01

Describes Notre Dame High School's (California) integrated bioethics course, which contains units on basic concepts of goals, rights, and duty ethics; reproductive technologies; genetic technologies; death and dying; behavior modification; and experiments with human subjects. Provides a bibliography of student and teacher materials. (DMM)

Multimethod, multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves.

PubMed

Jiménez, José; García, Emilio J; Llaneza, Luis; Palacios, Vicente; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Múñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-08-01

In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population parameters. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee population.

Human environmental and occupational exposures to boric acid: reconciliation with experimental reproductive toxicity data.

PubMed

Bolt, Hermann M; Başaran, Nurşen; Duydu, Yalçın

2012-01-01

The reproductive toxicity of boric acid and borates is a matter of current regulatory concern. Based on experimental studies in rats, no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) were found to be 17.5 mg boron (B)/kg body weight (b.w.) for male fertility and 9.6 mg B/kg b.w. for developmental toxicity. Recently, occupational human field studies in highly exposed cohorts were reported from China and Turkey, with both studies showing negative results regarding male reproduction. A comparison of the conditions of these studies with the experimental NOAEL conditions are based on reported B blood levels, which is clearly superior to a scaling according to estimated B exposures. A comparison of estimated daily B exposure levels and measured B blood levels confirms the preference of biomonitoring data for a comparison of human field studies. In general, it appears that high environmental exposures to B are lower than possible high occupational exposures. The comparison reveals no contradiction between human and experimental reproductive toxicity data. It clearly appears that human B exposures, even in the highest exposed cohorts, are too low to reach the blood (and target tissue) concentrations that would be required to exert adverse effects on reproductive functions.

Optimizing the design of a reproduction toxicity test with the pond snail Lymnaea stagnalis.

PubMed

Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Azam, Didier; Benstead, Rachel; Brettschneider, Denise; De Schamphelaere, Karel; Filipe Goncalves, Sandra; Green, John W; Holbech, Henrik; Hutchinson, Thomas H; Faber, Daniel; Laranjeiro, Filipe; Matthiessen, Peter; Norrgren, Leif; Oehlmann, Jörg; Reategui-Zirena, Evelyn; Seeland-Fremer, Anne; Teigeler, Matthias; Thome, Jean-Pierre; Tobor Kaplon, Marysia; Weltje, Lennart; Lagadic, Laurent

2016-11-01

This paper presents the results from two ring-tests addressing the feasibility, robustness and reproducibility of a reproduction toxicity test with the freshwater gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis (RENILYS strain). Sixteen laboratories (from inexperienced to expert laboratories in mollusc testing) from nine countries participated in these ring-tests. Survival and reproduction were evaluated in L. stagnalis exposed to cadmium, tributyltin, prochloraz and trenbolone according to an OECD draft Test Guideline. In total, 49 datasets were analysed to assess the practicability of the proposed experimental protocol, and to estimate the between-laboratory reproducibility of toxicity endpoint values. The statistical analysis of count data (number of clutches or eggs per individual-day) leading to ECx estimation was specifically developed and automated through a free web-interface. Based on a complementary statistical analysis, the optimal test duration was established and the most sensitive and cost-effective reproduction toxicity endpoint was identified, to be used as the core endpoint. This validation process and the resulting optimized protocol were used to consolidate the OECD Test Guideline for the evaluation of reproductive effects of chemicals in L. stagnalis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conservation endocrinology

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCormick, Stephen; Romero, L. Michael

2017-01-01

Endocrinologists can make significant contributions to conservation biology by helping to understand the mechanisms by which organisms cope with changing environments. Field endocrine techniques have advanced rapidly in recent years and can provide substantial information on the growth, stress, and reproductive status of individual animals, thereby providing insight into current and future responses of populations to changes in the environment. Environmental stressors and reproductive status can be detected nonlethally by measuring a number of endocrine-related endpoints, including steroids in plasma, living and nonliving tissue, urine, and feces. Information on the environmental or endocrine requirements of individual species for normal growth, development, and reproduction will provide critical information for species and ecosystem conservation. For many taxa, basic information on endocrinology is lacking, and advances in conservation endocrinology will require approaches that are both “basic” and “applied” and include integration of laboratory and field approaches.

The study of multiphase flow control during odor reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Dehan; Yu, Hao; Fan, Danjun; He, Meiqiu

2014-04-01

Odor reproduction, is the use of the chemical composition of the basic components of odor recipe, according to a certain proportion, to control the flow of the various components, which make them sufficiently blended to achieve reproduction. In this paper, reproducing method is to find the corresponding liquid flavor, and then based on chemical flavor recipes, using flowmeters to control the chemical composition of the liquid flavor ratio. In the proportional control, the liquid chemical composition is very likely to be volatile, so that the proportional control is multiphase flow control. Measurement of the flow control will directly affect the odor reproducible results. Using electronic nose to obtain reproducible odor data, and then use pattern recognition algorithm to determine reproducible results. The experimental results can be achieved on the process of odor components multiphase flow proportional control parameter adjustment.

Age-related reproduction in striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in the upper Midwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenwood, Raymond J.; Sargeant, Alan B.

1994-01-01

Reproductive data from the upper Midwest are meager for the striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), a common North American carnivore. We provide data on some age-related reproductive attributes of 178 female striped skunks collected at 19 sites in eastcentral North Dakota and westcentral Minnesota in 1979–1981 and 1987–1991. Seventy-four percent of the females were 1 year old; 95% were pregnant or parous when collected. Thirteen of 873 (1.5%) embryos in 123 pregnant females were being resorbed. The overall mean (±1 SE) litter size estimated from live embryos was 7.2 ± 0.4. Means of litter-size estimates were similar for females ≥1 year old, but annual estimates of litter size differed among years for all females combined. For females from the interval 1979–1981 and 1990, the mean implantation date based on embryo size was 4 March (±1.6 days). Potential litters were composed of a mean of 55 ± 3% females. Estimates of litter size based on counts of corpora lutea averaged 0.9 young per female less than estimates for the same females based on counts of live embryos, indicating that some skunks may have produced polyovular follicles or identical twins.

The correlation between infectivity and incubation period of measles, estimated from households with two cases.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2011-09-07

The generation time of an infectious disease is the time between infection of a primary case and infection of a secondary case by the primary case. Its distribution plays a key role in understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases in populations, e.g. in estimating the basic reproduction number. Moreover, the generation time and incubation period distributions together characterize the effectiveness of control by isolation and quarantine. In modelling studies, a relation between the two is often not made specific, but a correlation is biologically plausible. However, it is difficult to establish such correlation, because of the unobservable nature of infection events. We have quantified a joint distribution of generation time and incubation period by a novel estimation method for household data with two susceptible individuals, consisting of time intervals between disease onsets of two measles cases. We used two such datasets, and a separate incubation period dataset. Results indicate that the mean incubation period and the generation time of measles are positively correlated, and that both lie in the range of 11-12 days, suggesting that infectiousness of measles cases increases significantly around the time of symptom onset. The correlation between times from infection to secondary transmission and to symptom onset could critically affect the predicted effectiveness of isolation and quarantine. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016

PubMed Central

Rojas, DP; Dean, NE; Yang, Y; Kenah, E; Quintero, J; Tomasi, S; Ramirez, EL; Kelly, Y; Castro, C; Carrasquilla, G; Halloran, ME; Longini, IM

2016-01-01

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was laboratory-confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the serum of acute cases within five days of symptom onset. We use daily incidence data to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) in each population. We identified 928 and 1,936 reported ZVD cases from San Andres and Girardot, respectively. The overall attack rate for reported ZVD was 12.13 cases per 1,000 residents of San Andres and 18.43 cases per 1,000 residents of Girardot. Attack rates were significantly higher in females in both municipalities (p < 0.001). Cases occurred in all age groups with highest rates in 20 to 49 year-olds. The estimated R0 for the Zika outbreak was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15–1.74) in San Andres and 4.61 (95% CI: 4.11–5.16) in Girardot. Transmission of ZIKV is ongoing in the Americas. The estimated R0 from Colombia supports the observed rapid spread. PMID:27452806

Selecting surrogate endpoints for estimating pesticide effects on avian reproductive success

EPA Science Inventory

A Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest) has been developed for projecting the effects of a specific pesticide-use scenario on the annual reproductive success of avian species of concern. A critical element in MCnest is the use of surrogate endpoints, defined as measured ...

Assessment of inbreeding depression in Nellore cows (Bos indicus) through high-density SNP genotypes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Inbreeding has been incriminated as a cause of decrease in reproductive performance in cattle. This negative correlation is known as ‘inbreeding depression’, and evidence supporting this hypothesis was generated from association studies between reproductive traits and estimates of inbreeding coeffic...

Adaptive reproduction schedule as a cause of worker policing in social hymenoptera: a dynamic game analysis.

PubMed

Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Tsuji, Kazuki

2009-06-01

Evolutionary theories predict conflicts over sex allocation, male parentage, and reproductive allocation in hymenopteran societies. However, no theory to date has considered the evolution when a colony faces these three conflicts simultaneously. We tackled this issue by developing a dynamic game model, focusing especially on worker policing. Whereas a Nash equilibrium predicts male parentage patterns that are basically the same as those of relatedness-based worker-policing theory (queen multiple mating impedes worker reproduction), we also show the potential for worker policing under queen single mating. Worker policing will depend on the stage of colony growth that is caused by interaction with reproductive allocation conflict or a trade-off between current and future reproduction. Male production at an early stage greatly hinders the growth of the work force and undermines future inclusive fitness of colony members, leading to worker policing at the ergonomic stage. This new mechanism can explain much broader ranges of existing worker-policing behavior than that predicted from relatedness. Predictions differ in many respects from those of models assuming operation of only one or two of the three conflicts, suggesting the importance of interactions among conflicts.

Interplay of rights, technology, and services explored.

PubMed

1999-09-01

Recent developments in the field of reproductive health and family planning have featured key intersections among technology, services, and rights. In May 1999, the Population Council hosted a two-day meeting on rights, technology, and services in reproductive health to examine more deeply the philosophical underpinnings of the council's work. In many countries, planning pregnancies and exercising reproductive rights have been central tenets of feminist thinking and activism for decades. In other settings, fertility-regulation technologies were introduced primarily for the purpose of controlling population growth rather than facilitating the exercise of individual rights. Much of the critique of population programs has centered on violations of rights and the need to protect women in the process of testing and delivering reproductive technologies. Despite a diversity of opinions on the ethics and appropriateness of specific technologies, there is a growing consensus that women and men have a basic right to control their bodies, reproduction, and sexuality. In many places, however, people have faced barriers as they attempt to exercise these rights. Some obstacles are primarily economic, while others are physical or institutional in nature. During the meeting, participants raised many additional questions, and their exploration of these questions highlighted the ways that rights, technology, and service influence each other.

Wildlife conservation and reproductive cloning.

PubMed

Holt, William V; Pickard, Amanda R; Prather, Randall S

2004-03-01

Reproductive cloning, or the production of offspring by nuclear transfer, is often regarded as having potential for conserving endangered species of wildlife. Currently, however, low success rates for reproductive cloning limit the practical application of this technique to experimental use and proof of principle investigations. In this review, we consider how cloning may contribute to wildlife conservation strategies. The cloning of endangered mammals presents practical problems, many of which stem from the paucity of knowledge about their basic reproductive biology. However, situations may arise where resources could be targeted at recovering lost or under-represented genetic lines; these could then contribute to the future fitness of the population. Approaches of this type would be preferable to the indiscriminate generation of large numbers of identical individuals. Applying cloning technology to non-mammalian vertebrates may be more practical than attempting to use conventional reproductive technologies. As the scientific background to cloning technology was pioneered using amphibians, it may be possible to breed imminently threatened amphibians, or even restore extinct amphibian species, by the use of cloning. In this respect species with external embryonic development may have an advantage over mammals as developmental abnormalities associated with inappropriate embryonic reprogramming would not be relevant.

Sexual selection leads to a tenfold difference in reproductive success of alternative reproductive tactics in male Atlantic salmon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tentelier, Cédric; Lepais, Olivier; Larranaga, Nicolas; Manicki, Aurélie; Lange, Frédéric; Rives, Jacques

2016-06-01

The precocious maturation of some male Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar L.) has become a textbook example of alternative mating tactics, but the only estimates of reproductive success available so far are either the collective contribution of precocious males to reproduction in the wild or individual reproductive success in oversimplified experimental conditions. Using genetic parentage analysis on anadromous and precocious potential spawners and their offspring, we quantified components of individual reproductive success of both tactics in a natural population. On average, precocious males produced 2.24 (variance 67.62) offspring, against 27.17 (3080) for anadromous males. For both tactics, most of the variance in reproductive success was due to mating success, with 83 % of precocious males having no mate, against 50 % for anadromous males. Body size increased reproductive success of anadromous males and tended to decrease precocious males' reproductive success. Although these results do not solve the coexistence of alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) in Atlantic salmon, their inclusion in comprehensive models of lifetime reproductive success should shed light on the evolution of precocious maturation in Atlantic salmon and its effect on the selection of phenotypic traits.

Sexual selection leads to a tenfold difference in reproductive success of alternative reproductive tactics in male Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Tentelier, Cédric; Lepais, Olivier; Larranaga, Nicolas; Manicki, Aurélie; Lange, Frédéric; Rives, Jacques

2016-06-01

The precocious maturation of some male Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) has become a textbook example of alternative mating tactics, but the only estimates of reproductive success available so far are either the collective contribution of precocious males to reproduction in the wild or individual reproductive success in oversimplified experimental conditions. Using genetic parentage analysis on anadromous and precocious potential spawners and their offspring, we quantified components of individual reproductive success of both tactics in a natural population. On average, precocious males produced 2.24 (variance 67.62) offspring, against 27.17 (3080) for anadromous males. For both tactics, most of the variance in reproductive success was due to mating success, with 83% of precocious males having no mate, against 50% for anadromous males. Body size increased reproductive success of anadromous males and tended to decrease precocious males' reproductive success. Although these results do not solve the coexistence of alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) in Atlantic salmon, their inclusion in comprehensive models of lifetime reproductive success should shed light on the evolution of precocious maturation in Atlantic salmon and its effect on the selection of phenotypic traits.

On-site comprehensive curriculum to teach reproductive health to female adolescents in Kenya.

PubMed

Gaughran, Margaret; Asgary, Ramin

2014-04-01

Rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and unplanned pregnancy are high in Kenya, and limited reproductive health education exists in schools. We designed and implemented a 6-week reproductive health curriculum in Laikipia District, Kenya, in 2011, which included didactic sessions, educational games, and open discussions. We applied a mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate this curriculum including a comprehensive 35-item survey to assess pre- and post-training knowledge, attitudes, and practices of female teenagers regarding STIs/HIV and family planning using paired t-test as well as complementary focus groups (n=42) and individual interviews (n=20). Average age for 42 female teenagers was 16.5 (± 1.31) years. Pre-test questionnaires revealed lack of knowledge about different types of STIs, specifically chlamydia, but adequate knowledge of basic contraception including abstinence and condom use. By the conclusion of the study, we observed improvement in following educational domains: general knowledge of HIV/AIDS (85% ± 7.5% to 94% ± 5.6%) (p<0.001); general knowledge of teen pregnancy and STIs (57% ± 19% to 82% ± 13%) (p<0.001); and overall scores of knowledge, attitude, and self-efficacy (81% ± 6.6% to 90% ± 5%) (p<0.001). Focus group discussions, however, revealed persistent misconceptions and knowledge gaps with themes regarding HIV transmission risk factors, perceived difficulty negotiating condom use, masturbation and its perceived consequences, and issues surrounding female circumcision. Important misconceptions and gaps in reproductive practices were identified and addressed using a mixed methods approach. Despite prior basic knowledge and positive attitudes on STI prevention and family planning, complementary teaching approaches were instrumental in improving overall knowledge of STIs other than HIV as well as family planning. The curriculum was feasible, well received, and achieved its educational goals.

Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

2015-01-01

We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

Effects of selection for blood serum IGF-I concentration on reproductive performance of female Angus beef cattle.

PubMed

Zhang, X; Davis, M E; Moeller, S J; Ottobre, J S

2013-09-01

Reproductive performance of animals affects lifetime productivity. However, improvement of reproductive traits via direct selection is generally slow due to low heritability. Therefore, identification of indicator traits for reproductive performance may enhance genetic response. Previous studies showed that serum IGF-I concentration is a candidate indicator for growth and reproductive traits. The objective of our study was to estimate the variances or covariances of IGF-I concentration with reproductive traits. Data were collected from a divergent selection experiment for serum IGF-I concentration at the Eastern Agricultural Research Station owned by The Ohio State University. The study included a total of 2,662 calves in the 1989 to 2005 calf crops. Variance or covariance components were estimated for direct and maternal genetic effects, maternal environment effects, environment effects, and phenotypic effects using an animal model in a multiple-trait, derivative-free, restricted maximum likelihood (MTDFREML, Boldman et al., 1995) computer program. Direct additive genetic correlations suggest that selection for greater IGF-I concentration (heritability = 0.50 ± 0.07) could lead to increased conception rate (heritability = 0.11 ± 0.06, r = 0.32, P < 0.001) and calving rate (heritability = 0.13 ± 0.06, r = 0.43, P < 0.001) and decreased age at first calving in heifers (heritability = 0.35 ± 0.20, r = -0.40, P < 0.001).

Estimated impact of aggressive empirical antiviral treatment in containing an outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 in an isolated First Nations community.

PubMed

Xiao, Yanyu; Patel, Zeenat; Fiddler, Adam; Yuan, Lilian; Delvin, Marie-Elaine; Fisman, David N

2013-11-01

The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was mild by historical standards, but was more severe in isolated Canadian Indigenous communities. Oseltamivir was used aggressively for outbreak control in an isolated northern Ontario First Nations community. We used mathematical modeling to quantify the impact of antiviral therapy on the course of this outbreak. We used both a Richards growth model and a compartmental model to evaluate the characteristics of the outbreak based on both respiratory visits and influenza-like illness counts. Estimates of best-fit model parameters, including basic reproductive number (R0 ) and antiviral efficacy, and simulations, were used to estimate the impact of antiviral drugs compared to social distancing interventions alone. Using both approaches, we found that a rapidly growing outbreak slowed markedly with aggressive antiviral therapy. Richards model turning points occurred within 24 hours of antiviral implementation. Compartmental models estimated antiviral efficacy at 70-95%. Plausible estimates of R from both modeling approaches ranged from 4·0 to 15·8, higher than published estimates for southern Canada; utilization of aggressive antiviral therapy in this community prevented 962-1757 cases of symptomatic influenza and as many as 114 medical evacuations in this community. Although not advocated in other settings in Canada, aggressive antiviral therapy markedly reduced the impact of a pandemic-related influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in an isolated Canadian First Nations community in northern Ontario, Canada. The differential risk experienced by such communities makes tailored interventions that consider risk and lack of access to medical services, appropriate. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Differential Regulation of Aromatase Isoforms and Tissue Responses to Environmental Chemicals in Fish

EPA Science Inventory

As in mammals, aromatase plays a basic role in fish reproduction. Unlike most mammals, with only one form of aromatase, fish have two distinct forms. One isoform, P450aromA, predominates in ovaries. Ovarian aromatase activity controls circulating levels of estrogens and is critic...

A "View from Nowhen" on Time Perception Experiments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riemer, Martin; Trojan, Jorg; Kleinbohl, Dieter; Holzl, Rupert

2012-01-01

Systematic errors in time reproduction tasks have been interpreted as a misperception of time and therefore seem to contradict basic assumptions of pacemaker-accumulator models. Here we propose an alternative explanation of this phenomenon based on methodological constraints regarding the direction of time, which cannot be manipulated in…

The Problematic Promotion of Abstinence: An Overview of Sex Respect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodson, Patricia; Edmundson, Elizabeth

1994-01-01

Presents the results of a content evaluation of the abstinence-based sexuality education curriculum, "Sex Respect," focusing on the curriculum's message and presentation. Results indicate Sex Respect omits basic content and includes misinformation, especially in the areas of human sexual response and reproductive health, and needs revision.…

The Status of Women's Reproductive Rights and Adverse Birth Outcomes.

PubMed

Wallace, Maeve Ellen; Evans, Melissa Goldin; Theall, Katherine

Reproductive rights-the ability to decide whether and when to have children-shape women's socioeconomic and health trajectories across the life course. The objective of this study was to examine reproductive rights in association with preterm birth (PTB; <37 weeks) and low birth weight (LBW; <2,500g) across states in the United States. Analysis included records for all live births in the United States in 2012 grouped by state. A reproductive rights composite index score was assigned to records from each state based on the following indicators for the year before birth (2011): mandatory sex education, expanded Medicaid eligibility for family planning services, mandatory parental involvement for minors seeking abortion, mandatory abortion waiting periods, public funding for abortion, and percentage of women in counties with abortion providers. Scores were ranked by tertile with the highest tertile reflecting states with strongest reproductive rights. We fit logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations to estimate the odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for PTB and LBW associated with reproductive rights score controlling for maternal race, age, education, and insurance and state-level poverty. States with the strongest reproductive rights had the lowest rates of LBW and PTB (7.3% and 10.6%, respectively) compared with states with more restrictions (8.5% and 12.2%, respectively). After adjustment, women in more restricted states experienced 13% to 15% increased odds of PTB and 6% to 9% increased odds of LBW compared with women in states with the strongest rights. State-level reproductive rights may influence likelihood of adverse birth outcomes among women residents. Copyright © 2016 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Research in nondomestic species: experiences in reproductive physiology research for conservation of endangered felids.

PubMed

Swanson, William F

2003-01-01

Tremendous strides have been made in recent years to broaden our understanding of reproductive processes in nondomestic felid species and further our capacity to use this basic knowledge to control and manipulate reproduction of endangered cats. Much of that progress has culminated from detailed scientific studies conducted in nontraditional laboratory settings, frequently at collaborating zoological parks but also under more primitive conditions, including in the field. A mobile laboratory approach is described, which incorporates a diverse array of disciplines and research techniques. This approach has been extremely useful, especially for conducting gamete characterization and function studies as well as reproductive surveys, and for facilitating the development of assisted reproductive technology. With continuing advances in assisted reproduction in rare felids, more procedures are being conducted primarily as service-related activities, targeted to increase effectiveness of species propagation and population management. It can be a challenge for both investigators and institutional animal care and use committees (IACUCs) to differentiate these service-based procedures from traditional research studies (that require IACUC oversight). For research with rare cat species, multi-institutional collaboration frequently is necessary to gain access to scientifically meaningful numbers of study subjects. Similarly, for service-based efforts, the ability to perform reproductive procedures across institutions under nonstandard laboratory conditions is critical to applying reproductive sciences for managing and preserving threatened cat populations. Reproductive sciences can most effectively assist population management programs (e.g., Species Survival Plans) in addressing conservation priorities if these research and service-related procedures can be conducted "on the road" at distant national and international locales. This mobile laboratory approach has applications beyond endangered species research, notably for other scientific fields (e.g., studies of hereditary disease in domestic cat models) in which bringing the laboratory to the subject is of value.

Ethical issues in human reproduction: Islamic perspectives.

PubMed

Serour, G I

2013-11-01

Sexual and reproductive rights of women are essential components of human rights. They should never be transferred, renounced or denied for any reason based on race, religion, origin, political opinion or economic conditions. Women have the right to the highest attainable standard of health care for all aspects of their reproductive and sexual health (RSH). The principle of autonomy emphasizes the important role of women in the decision-making. Choices of women in reproduction, after providing evidence based information, should be respected. Risks, benefits and alternatives should be clearly explained before they make their free informed consent. Justice requires that all be treated with equal standard and have equal access to their health needs without discrimination or coercion. When resources are limited there is tension between the principle of justice and utility. Islamic perspectives of bioethics are influenced by primary Sharia namely the Holy Quran, authenticated traditions and saying of the Profit Mohamed (PBUH), Igmaa and Kias (analogy). All the contemporary ethical principles are emphasized in Islamic Shariaa, thus these principles should be observed when providing reproductive and sexual health services for Muslim families or communities. The Family is the basic unit in Islam. Safe motherhood, family planning, and quality reproductive and sexual health information and services and assisted reproductive technology are all encouraged within the frame of marriage. While the Shiaa sect permits egg donation, and surrogacy the Sunni sect forbids a third party contribution to reproduction. Harmful practices in RSH as FGM, child marriage and adolescent pregnancy are prohibited in Islam. Conscientious objection to treatment should not refrain the physician from appropriate referral.

Cloning: can it be good for us? An overview of cloning technology and its moral implications.

PubMed

FitzGerald, K

2001-01-01

Adequate answers to moral questions about cloning require a working knowledge of the science and technology involved, both present and anticipated. This essay presents an overview of the current state of somatic cell nuclear transfer technology (SCNT), the type of cloning that now permits whole organism reproduction from adult DNA. This essay explains the basic science and technology of SCNT and explores its potential uses. Next, this essay notes remaining scientific obstacles and unanswered moral questions that must be resolved before SCNT can be used for human reproduction. Attention is given to aspects related to cloning for therapeutic and research purposes.

How do educational contexts contribute to the social class achievement gap: documenting symbolic violence from a social psychological point of view.

PubMed

Croizet, Jean-Claude; Goudeau, Sébastien; Marot, Medhi; Millet, Mathias

2017-12-01

This article examines how the educational system participates in the reproduction of social inequality. After exposing the basics of the Social Reproduction Theory developed in sociology by Bourdieu and Passeron in 1977, we examine the research in social psychology that documents the reality of 'symbolic violence' that is the symbolic power that operates in the classroom and undermines the performance of students from underprivileged backgrounds. Three lines of research are examined: self-esteem, self-threat and research on the non-neutrality of educational settings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survey of reproductive health in young adults, greater Santiago, 1988.

PubMed

Valenzuela, M S; Herold, J M; Morris, L; López, I

1991-01-01

This article reports the results of an interview survey with 1,665 residents of Metropolitan Santiago 15-24 years old. The survey, which dealt with various aspects of reproductive health, indicated that the sex education received by 75% of the subjects generally failed to convey an accurate knowledge of the basic concepts of sexuality; that use of contraceptive methods was very limited; that approximately 25% of the 865 women interviewed had been pregnant at some time; and that 40% of all the pregnancies were unplanned. These findings demonstrate a need to begin effective sex education programs and to provide adolescent services commensurate with the circumstances of modern life.

Reproduction of raccoons (Procyon lotor) in North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritzell, E.K.

1978-01-01

Necropsies and observations of captive and radio-equipped individuals provided reproductive data from a raccoon population in the northern prairies. The mean parturition date of adult females was 8 May and the mean litter size was 4.8. Only two of the 14 yearling females examined prior to 1 July were pregnant; they had estimated parturition dates of 20 May and 22 June. Penes of most yearling males became extrusible in July or August. Testes weights and sperm smears suggest that yearling males in North Dakota are not reproductively active. Reproductive patterns of raccoons near the northern periphery of their range and those at lower latitudes are compared and discussed.

Life history theory and dental development in four species of catarrhine primates.

PubMed

Dirks, Wendy; Bowman, Jacqui E

2007-09-01

Dental development was reconstructed in several individuals representing four species of catarrhine primates--Symphalangus syndactylus, Hylobates lar, Semnopithecus entellus priam, and Papio hamadryas--using the techniques of dental histology. Bar charts assumed to represent species-typical dental development were constructed from these data and estimated ages at first and third molar emergence were plotted on them along with ages at weaning, menarche, and first reproduction from the literature. The estimated age at first molar emergence appears to occur at weaning in the siamang, lar gibbon, and langur, and just after weaning in the baboon. Age at menarche and first reproduction occur earlier relative to dental development in both cercopithecoids than in the hylobatids, suggesting that early reproduction may be a derived trait in cercopithecoids. The results are examined in the context of life history theory.

A deterministic and stochastic model for the system dynamics of tumor-immune responses to chemotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangdong; Li, Qingze; Pan, Jianxin

2018-06-01

Modern medical studies show that chemotherapy can help most cancer patients, especially for those diagnosed early, to stabilize their disease conditions from months to years, which means the population of tumor cells remained nearly unchanged in quite a long time after fighting against immune system and drugs. In order to better understand the dynamics of tumor-immune responses under chemotherapy, deterministic and stochastic differential equation models are constructed to characterize the dynamical change of tumor cells and immune cells in this paper. The basic dynamical properties, such as boundedness, existence and stability of equilibrium points, are investigated in the deterministic model. Extended stochastic models include stochastic differential equations (SDEs) model and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, which accounts for the variability in cellular reproduction, growth and death, interspecific competitions, and immune response to chemotherapy. The CTMC model is harnessed to estimate the extinction probability of tumor cells. Numerical simulations are performed, which confirms the obtained theoretical results.

A swash-backwash model of the single epidemic wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliff, Andrew D.; Haggett, Peter

2006-09-01

While there is a large literature on the form of epidemic waves in the time domain, models of their structure and shape in the spatial domain remain poorly developed. This paper concentrates on the changing spatial distribution of an epidemic wave over time and presents a simple method for identifying the leading and trailing edges of the spatial advance and retreat of such waves. Analysis of edge characteristics is used to (a) disaggregate waves into ‘swash’ and ‘backwash’ stages, (b) measure the phase transitions of areas from susceptible, S, through infective, I, to recovered, R, status ( S → I → R) as dimensionless integrals and (c) estimate a spatial version of the basic reproduction number, R 0. The methods used are illustrated by application to measles waves in Iceland over a 60-year period from 1915 to 1974. Extensions of the methods for use with more complex waves are possible through modifying the threshold values used to define the start and end points of an event.

Lethal Respiratory Disease Associated with Human Rhinovirus C in Wild Chimpanzees, Uganda, 2013.

PubMed

Scully, Erik J; Basnet, Sarmi; Wrangham, Richard W; Muller, Martin N; Otali, Emily; Hyeroba, David; Grindle, Kristine A; Pappas, Tressa E; Thompson, Melissa Emery; Machanda, Zarin; Watters, Kelly E; Palmenberg, Ann C; Gern, James E; Goldberg, Tony L

2018-02-01

We describe a lethal respiratory outbreak among wild chimpanzees in Uganda in 2013 for which molecular and epidemiologic analyses implicate human rhinovirus C as the cause. Postmortem samples from an infant chimpanzee yielded near-complete genome sequences throughout the respiratory tract; other pathogens were absent. Epidemiologic modeling estimated the basic reproductive number (R 0 ) for the epidemic as 1.83, consistent with the common cold in humans. Genotyping of 41 chimpanzees and examination of 24 published chimpanzee genomes from subspecies across Africa showed universal homozygosity for the cadherin-related family member 3 CDHR3-Y 529 allele, which increases risk for rhinovirus C infection and asthma in human children. These results indicate that chimpanzees exhibit a species-wide genetic susceptibility to rhinovirus C and that this virus, heretofore considered a uniquely human pathogen, can cross primate species barriers and threatens wild apes. We advocate engineering interventions and prevention strategies for rhinovirus infections for both humans and wild apes.

Invasiveness of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and Vectorial Capacity for Chikungunya Virus

PubMed Central

Lounibos, Leon Philip; Kramer, Laura D.

2016-01-01

In this review, we highlight biological characteristics of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, 2 invasive mosquito species and primary vectors of chikungunya virus (CHIKV), that set the tone of these species' invasiveness, vector competence, and vectorial capacity (VC). The invasiveness of both species, as well as their public health threats as vectors, is enhanced by preference for human blood. Vector competence, characterized by the efficiency of an ingested arbovirus to replicate and become infectious in the mosquito, depends largely on vector and virus genetics, and most A. aegypti and A. albopictus populations thus far tested confer vector competence for CHIKV. VC, an entomological analog of the pathogen's basic reproductive rate (R0), is epidemiologically more important than vector competence but less frequently measured, owing to challenges in obtaining valid estimates of parameters such as vector survivorship and host feeding rates. Understanding the complexities of these factors will be pivotal in curbing CHIKV transmission. PMID:27920173

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

PubMed Central

Turk, Teja; Bachmann, Nadine; Kadelka, Claus; Böni, Jürg; Yerly, Sabine; Aubert, Vincent; Klimkait, Thomas; Battegay, Manuel; Bernasconi, Enos; Calmy, Alexandra; Cavassini, Matthias; Furrer, Hansjakob; Hoffmann, Matthias; Aubert, V; Battegay, M; Bernasconi, E; Böni, J; Braun, DL; Bucher, HC; Calmy, A; Cavassini, M; Ciuffi, A; Dollenmaier, G; Egger, M; Elzi, L; Fehr, J; Fellay, J; Furrer, H; Fux, CA; Günthard, HF; Haerry, D; Hasse, B; Hirsch, HH; Hoffmann, M; Hösli, I; Kahlert, C; Kaiser, L; Keiser, O; Klimkait, T; Kouyos, RD; Kovari, H; Ledergerber, B; Martinetti, G; Martinez de Tejada, B; Marzolini, C; Metzner, KJ; Müller, N; Nicca, D; Pantaleo, G; Paioni, P; Rauch, A; Rudin, C; Scherrer, AU; Schmid, P; Speck, R; Stöckle, M; Tarr, P; Trkola, A; Vernazza, P; Wandeler, G; Weber, R; Yerly, S

2017-01-01

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42—0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%—17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data. PMID:28895527

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Reproductive tourism in Argentina: clinic accreditation and its implications for consumers, health professionals and policy makers.

PubMed

Smith, Elise; Behrmann, Jason; Martin, Carolina; Williams-Jones, Bryn

2010-08-01

A subcategory of medical tourism, reproductive tourism has been the subject of much public and policy debate in recent years. Specific concerns include: the exploitation of individuals and communities, access to needed health care services, fair allocation of limited resources, and the quality and safety of services provided by private clinics. To date, the focus of attention has been on the thriving medical and reproductive tourism sectors in Asia and Eastern Europe; there has been much less consideration given to more recent 'players' in Latin America, notably fertility clinics in Chile, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. In this paper, we examine the context-specific ethical and policy implications of private Argentinean fertility clinics that market reproductive services via the internet. Whether or not one agrees that reproductive services should be made available as consumer goods, the fact is that they are provided as such by private clinics around the world. We argue that basic national regulatory mechanisms are required in countries such as Argentina that are marketing fertility services to local and international publics. Specifically, regular oversight of all fertility clinics is essential to ensure that consumer information is accurate and that marketed services are safe and effective. It is in the best interests of consumers, health professionals and policy makers that the reproductive tourism industry adopts safe and responsible medical practices.

The Effect of Interprofessional Student-Led Reproductive Health Education on Youths in Juvenile Detention.

PubMed

Son, Ji; Miller, Willa M; Tossone, Krystel; Butcher, Fredrick; Kuo, Kelly

2017-06-01

To assess the effects of an interprofessional student-led comprehensive sexual education curriculum in improving the reproductive health literacy among at-risk youths in detention. We performed a prospective cohort study involving 134 incarcerated youth and an interprofessional team of 23 medical, nursing, and social work students, who participated in a comprehensive reproductive health curriculum over the course of 3 days. Basic reproductive health knowledge, confidence in condom use with a new partner, and self-efficacy with regard to contraception use and sexual autonomy were assessed before and after completion of the curriculum. We also assessed the student teachers' level of comfort with teaching reproductive health to adolescents and their perception of interprofessionalism. Incarcerated youth showed a statistically significant increase in knowledge regarding sexually transmitted infections as well as self-reported confidence in condom use (P = .002). Self-efficacy in contraception use and sexual autonomy did not show significant improvement. Qualitative analysis of student teachers' surveys revealed theme categories regarding perception of youth, perception of self in teaching youth, perception of interacting with youth, and perception of working in interprofessional teams. Our program might represent a mutually beneficial community relationship to improve reproductive health literacy in this high-risk youth population. Copyright © 2016 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bringing X, Y, Z Generations Together to Facilitate School-Based Sexual and Reproductive Health Education

PubMed Central

Kamrani, Mahnaz Akbari; Yahya, Sharifah Syed

2016-01-01

This generic qualitative study explores the perspective of Malaysian teachers regarding the constraints of the current school-based sexual and reproductive health education in secondary schools of Klang-Valley Malaysia. For this study, in-depth interviews were conducted with twenty eight science teachers of government schools. The majority of participants named the teaching strategy and capacity of teachers, the lack of co-operation from the school and parents, limited resources in teaching and students themselves as some of the challenges. We concluded that if sexual health education is to be effective, it needs to be provided by people who have some specialized training. The teachers should be trained to teach sexual reproductive health education classes at the basic level, and in-service training for teachers already in the field should be intensified. Local adaptation to culture, language, religion, and so forth is often necessary. PMID:27157180

The origin of risk aversion

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J.; Lo, Andrew W.

2014-01-01

Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins. PMID:25453072

Bringing X, Y, Z Generations Together to Facilitate School-Based Sexual and Reproductive Health Education.

PubMed

Akbari Kamrani, Mahnaz; Yahya, Sharifah Syed

2016-09-01

This generic qualitative study explores the perspective of Malaysian teachers regarding the constraints of the current school-based sexual and reproductive health education in secondary schools of Klang-Valley Malaysia. For this study, in-depth interviews were conducted with twenty eight science teachers of government schools. The majority of participants named the teaching strategy and capacity of teachers, the lack of co-operation from the school and parents, limited resources in teaching and students themselves as some of the challenges. We concluded that if sexual health education is to be effective, it needs to be provided by people who have some specialized training. The teachers should be trained to teach sexual reproductive health education classes at the basic level, and in-service training for teachers already in the field should be intensified. Local adaptation to culture, language, religion, and so forth is often necessary.

The origin of risk aversion.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J; Lo, Andrew W

2014-12-16

Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins.

Superinfection Behaviors on Scale-Free Networks with Competing Strains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qingchu; Small, Michael; Liu, Huaxiang

2013-02-01

This paper considers the epidemiology of two strains ( I, J) of a disease spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. The epidemiological model is SIS and the two strains have different reproductive numbers. Superinfection means that strain I can infect individuals already infected with strain J, replacing the strain J infection. Individuals infected with strain I cannot be infected with strain J. The model is set up as a system of ordering differential equations and stability of the disease free, marginal strain I and strain J, and coexistence equilibria are assessed using linear stability analysis, supported by simulations. The main conclusion is that superinfection, as modeled in this paper, can allow strain I to coexist with strain J even when it has a lower basic reproductive number. Most strikingly, it can allow strain I to persist even when its reproductive number is less than 1.

Hypothetical link between infertility and genetically modified food.

PubMed

Gao, Mingxia; Li, Bin; Yuan, Wenzhen; Zhao, Lihui; Zhang, Xuehong

2014-01-01

It is speculated that genetically modified food (GMF)/genetically modified organism (GMO) is responsible for infertility development. The risk linked with a wide use of GMFs/GMOs offers the basic elements for social criticism. However, to date, it has not been justified whether the bad effects are directly resulted from products of genetic modifications or trans-genesis process. Extensive experience with the risk assessment of whole foods has been applied recently on the safety and nutritional testing of GMFs/GMOs. Investigations have tested the safety of GMFs including sub-acute, chronic, reproductive, multi-generation and carcinogenicity studies. We extrapolated the potential risks associated with GMFs/GMOs on reproduction, and analyzed the multi-aspect linked between infertility and GMFs/GMOs. It could be conjectured that GMFs/GMOs could be potential hazard on reproduction, linking to the development of infertility through influencing the endocrine metabolism, endometriosis. However, little evidence shows the impaction on embryo or reproductive related tumor due to the limited literatures, and needs further research. The article presents some related patents on GMFs/GMOs, and some methods for tracking GMOs.

[The students' page. Notes about patient records and the production and reproduction of knowledge. Written and oral presentations].

PubMed

de Almeida, L B; dos Santos, E S; Alves, D de B

1995-01-01

This paper relates a description about nursing notes in pactients promptuaries in relation to the distribution/reproduction/production process of knowledge in nursing. It was developed on an Intensive Care Unity from a Hospital in the teaching/assistance Sanitary District Barra/Rio Vermelho (Salvador-Bahia). The basic premise is that the nursing personal work superficial and sporadic notes just related to patients. Distribution/ reproduction/production process, that happen in the nursing work process isn't considered by it devaluation or just because, for nursing agents, only information about technical procedures related to patient care, expresses the nursing knowledge and so, must be registered. In order to reach the objective, 30% of the promptuaries of patients discharge from the ICU were studied and the nursing team was interviewed, during the months-november, december 1994. The analysis indicates that the way how the nursing notes are been made, results in hard communication among agents of health area and contributes to disqualify the nursing assistance that is given to patients, besides to limit the advance of the distribution/reproduction/production of knowledge in nursing.

Diurnal and Reproductive Stage-Dependent Variation of Parental Behaviour in Captive Zebra Finches

PubMed Central

Morvai, Boglárka; Nanuru, Sabine; Mul, Douwe; Kusche, Nina; Milne, Gregory; Székely, Tamás; Komdeur, Jan; Miklósi, Ádám

2016-01-01

Parental care plays a key role in ontogeny, life-history trade-offs, sexual selection and intra-familial conflict. Studies focusing on understanding causes and consequences of variation in parental effort need to quantify parental behaviour accurately. The applied methods are, however, diverse even for a given species and type of parental effort, and rarely validated for accuracy. Here we focus on variability of parental behaviour from a methodological perspective to investigate the effect of different samplings on various estimates of parental effort. We used nest box cameras in a captive breeding population of zebra finches, Taeniopygia guttata, a widely used model system of sexual selection, intra-familial dynamics and parental care. We investigated diurnal and reproductive stage-dependent variation in parental effort (including incubation, brooding, nest attendance and number of feedings) based on 12h and 3h continuous video-recordings taken at various reproductive stages. We then investigated whether shorter (1h) sampling periods provided comparable estimates of overall parental effort and division of labour to those of longer (3h) sampling periods. Our study confirmed female-biased division of labour during incubation, and showed that the difference between female and male effort diminishes with advancing reproductive stage. We found individually consistent parental behaviours within given days of incubation and nestling provisioning. Furthermore, parental behaviour was consistent over the different stages of incubation, however, only female brooding was consistent over nestling provisioning. Parental effort during incubation did not predict parental effort during nestling provisioning. Our analyses revealed that 1h sampling may be influenced heavily by stochastic and diurnal variation. We suggest using a single longer sampling period (3h) may provide a consistent and accurate estimate for overall parental effort during incubation in zebra finches. Due to the large within-individual variation, we suggest repeated longer sampling over the reproductive stage may be necessary for accurate estimates of parental effort post-hatching. PMID:27973549

The impact of roads on the demography of grizzly bears in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.

The Impact of Roads on the Demography of Grizzly Bears in Alberta

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species. PMID:25532035

Riding across the selection landscape: fitness consequences of annual variation in reproductive characteristics

PubMed Central

Tremblay, Raymond L.; Ackerman, James D.; Pérez, Maria-Eglée

2010-01-01

Evolutionary models estimating phenotypic selection in character size usually assume that the character is invariant across reproductive bouts. We show that variation in the size of reproductive traits may be large over multiple events and can influence fitness in organisms where these traits are produced anew each season. With data from populations of two orchid species, Caladenia valida and Tolumnia variegata, we used Bayesian statistics to investigate the effect on the distribution in fitness of individuals when the fitness landscape is not flat and when characters vary across reproductive bouts. Inconsistency in character size across reproductive periods within an individual increases the uncertainty of mean fitness and, consequently, the uncertainty in individual fitness. The trajectory of selection is likely to be muddled as a consequence of variation in morphology of individuals across reproductive bouts. The frequency and amplitude of such changes will certainly affect the dynamics between selection and genetic drift. PMID:20047875

Landscape effects on reproduction of Euschistus servus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), a mobile, polyphagous, multivoltine arthropod herbivore

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The brown stink bug is an economic pest of many crops in the southeastern US. In this study we characterized the complexity, land-use intensity and distances between differently-cropped fields on landscapes in two regions of southern Georgia, USA. We estimated brown stink bug reproduction, predator ...

Heritability of rectal temperature and genetic correlations with production and reproduction traits in dairy cattle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genetic selection for body temperature regulation during heat stress might be a useful approach to reduce the magnitude of heat stress effects on production and reproduction. Present objectives were to estimate the genetic parameters of rectal temperature in dairy cows reared in free stall barns und...

H1N1pdm in the Americas

PubMed Central

Lessler, Justin; Santos, Thais dos; Aguilera, Ximena; Brookmeyer, Ron; Cummings, Derek AT

2010-01-01

In late April 2009 the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1pdm) virus was detected in humans. From its detection through July 18th, 2009, confirmed cases of H1N1pdm in the Americas were periodically reported to the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) by member states. Because the Americas span much of the world’s latitudes, this data provides an excellent opportunity to examine variation in H1N1pdm transmission by season. Using reports from PAHO member states from April 26th, 2009 through July 18th, 2009, we characterize the early spread of the H1N1 pandemic in the Americas. For a geographically representative sample of member states we estimate the reproductive number (R) of H1N1pdm over the reporting period. The association between these estimates and latitude, temperature, humidity and population age structure was estimated. Estimates of the peak reproductive number of H1N1pdm ranged from 1.3 (for Panama, Colombia) to 2.1 (for Chile). We found that reproductive number estimates were most associated with latitude in both univariate and multivariate analyses. To the extent that latitude is a proxy for seasonal changes in climate and behavior, this association suggests a strong seasonal component to H1N1pdm transmission. However, the reasons for this seasonality remain unclear. PMID:20847900

Growth, chamber building rate and reproduction time of Palaeonummulites venosus under natural conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Shunichi; Eder, Wolfgang; Wöger, Julia; Hohenegger, Johann; Briguglio, Antonino

2017-04-01

Investigations on Palaeonummulites venosus using the natural laboratory approach for determining chamber building rate, test diameter increase rate, reproduction time and longevity is based on the decomposition of monthly obtained frequency distributions based on chamber number and test diameter into normal-distributed components. The shift of the component parameters 'mean' and 'standard deviation' during the investigation period of 15 months was used to calculate Michaelis-Menten functions applied to estimate the averaged chamber building rate and diameter increase rate under natural conditions. The individual dates of birth were estimated using the inverse averaged chamber building rate and the inverse diameter increase rate fitted by the individual chamber number or the individual test diameter at the sampling date. Distributions of frequencies and densities (i.e. frequency divided by sediment weight) based on chamber building rate and diameter increase rate resulted both in a continuous reproduction through the year with two peaks, the stronger in May /June determined as the beginning of the summer generation (generation1) and the weaker in November determined as the beginning of the winter generation (generation 2). This reproduction scheme explains the existence of small and large specimens in the same sample. Longevity, calculated as the maximum difference in days between the individual's birth date and the sampling date seems to be round about one year, obtained by both estimations based on the chamber building rate and the diameter increase rate.

It's a bear market: evolutionary and ecological effects of predation on two wild sockeye salmon populations

PubMed Central

Lin, J E; Hard, J J; Naish, K A; Peterson, D; Hilborn, R; Hauser, L

2016-01-01

Predation can affect both phenotypic variation and population productivity in the wild, but quantifying evolutionary and demographic effects of predation in natural environments is challenging. The aim of this study was to estimate selection differentials and coefficients associated with brown bear (Ursus arctos) predation in wild sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations spawning in pristine habitat that is often subject to intense predation pressure. Using reconstructed genetic pedigrees, individual reproductive success (RS) was estimated in two sockeye salmon populations for two consecutive brood years with very different predation intensities across brood years. Phenotypic data on individual adult body length, body depth, stream entry timing and reproductive lifespan were used to calculate selection coefficients based on RS, and genetic variance components were estimated using animal models. Bears consistently killed larger and more recently arrived adults, although selection differentials were small. In both populations, mean RS was higher in the brood year experiencing lower predation intensity. Selection coefficients were similar across brood years with different levels of predation, often indicating stabilizing selection on reproductive lifespan as well as directional selection for longer reproductive lifespan. Despite these selection pressures, genetic covariation of morphology, phenology and lifespan appears to have maintained variation in spawner body size and stream entry timing in both populations. Our results therefore suggest considerable demographic but limited evolutionary effects of bear predation in the two study populations. PMID:26860201

It's a bear market: evolutionary and ecological effects of predation on two wild sockeye salmon populations.

PubMed

Lin, J E; Hard, J J; Naish, K A; Peterson, D; Hilborn, R; Hauser, L

2016-05-01

Predation can affect both phenotypic variation and population productivity in the wild, but quantifying evolutionary and demographic effects of predation in natural environments is challenging. The aim of this study was to estimate selection differentials and coefficients associated with brown bear (Ursus arctos) predation in wild sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations spawning in pristine habitat that is often subject to intense predation pressure. Using reconstructed genetic pedigrees, individual reproductive success (RS) was estimated in two sockeye salmon populations for two consecutive brood years with very different predation intensities across brood years. Phenotypic data on individual adult body length, body depth, stream entry timing and reproductive lifespan were used to calculate selection coefficients based on RS, and genetic variance components were estimated using animal models. Bears consistently killed larger and more recently arrived adults, although selection differentials were small. In both populations, mean RS was higher in the brood year experiencing lower predation intensity. Selection coefficients were similar across brood years with different levels of predation, often indicating stabilizing selection on reproductive lifespan as well as directional selection for longer reproductive lifespan. Despite these selection pressures, genetic covariation of morphology, phenology and lifespan appears to have maintained variation in spawner body size and stream entry timing in both populations. Our results therefore suggest considerable demographic but limited evolutionary effects of bear predation in the two study populations.

Growth, chamber building rate and reproduction time of Palaeonummulites venosus (Foraminifera) under natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Shunichi; Eder, Wolfgang; Wöger, Julia; Hohenegger, Johann; Briguglio, Antonino

2017-12-01

We investigated the symbiont-bearing benthic foraminifer Palaeonummulites venosus to determine the chamber building rate (CBR), test diameter increase rate (DIR), reproduction time and longevity using the `natural laboratory' approach. This is based on the decomposition of monthly obtained frequency distributions of chamber number and test diameter into normally distributed components. Test measurements were taken using MicroCT. The shift of the mean and standard deviation of component parameters during the 15-month investigation period was used to calculate Michaelis-Menten functions applied to estimate the averaged CBR and DIR under natural conditions. The individual dates of birth were estimated using the inverse averaged CBR and the inverse DIR fitted by the individual chamber number or the individual test diameter at the sampling date. Distributions of frequencies and densities (i.e., frequency divided by sediment weight) based on both CBR and DIR revealed continuous reproduction throughout the year with two peaks, a stronger one in June determined as the onset of the summer generation (generation 1) and a weaker one in November determined as the onset of the winter generation (generation 2). This reproduction scheme explains the presence of small and large specimens in the same sample. Longevity, calculated as the maximum difference in days between the individual's birth date and the sampling date, is approximately 1.5 yr, an estimation obtained by using both CBR and DIR.

A Socratic Method for Surveying Students' Readiness to Study Evolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stansfield, William D.

2013-01-01

Before beginning a series of presentations on evolution, it would be prudent to survey the general level of students' understanding of prerequisite basic concepts of reproduction, heredity, ontology, and phenotypic diversity so that teachers can avoid devoting time to well-known subjects of general knowledge and can spend more time on subjects…

31 CFR 538.523 - Commercial sales, exportation, and reexportation of agricultural commodities, medicine, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... drinking water) or animals (including animal feeds); (B) Seeds for food crops; (C) Fertilizers or organic fertilizers; or (D) Reproductive materials (such as live animals, fertilized eggs, embryos, and semen) for the... fertilizers, live horses, western red cedar, and medical devices other than basic medical supplies, such as...

Diversity in Pathways to Parenthood: Patterns, Implications, and Emerging Research Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smock, Pamela J.; Greenland, Fiona Rose

2010-01-01

This review examines and synthesizes recent research on pathways to parenthood. We begin by providing basic information about patterns, differentials, and trends and discussing adoption and new reproductive technologies. We next turn to several areas of inquiry that became particularly prominent in the last decade: the continued "decoupling" of…

New Horizons: An Empowerment Program for Egyptian Adolescent Girls.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, Julie Hanson

New Horizons is a nonschool program that demystifies and communicates essential information on basic life skills and reproductive health to Egyptian girls and young women aged 9-20. The program consists of 100 hour-long sessions, each including an introduction to a specific topic, review of group knowledge level, discussion around key points…

Dynamics of an epidemic model with quarantine on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Huiyan; Liu, Kaihui; Fu, Xinchu

2017-12-01

Quarantine strategies are frequently used to control or reduce the transmission risks of epidemic diseases such as SARS, tuberculosis and cholera. In this paper, we formulate a susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered model on a scale-free network incorporating the births and deaths of individuals. Considering that the infectivity is related to the degrees of infectious nodes, we introduce quarantined rate as a function of degree into the model, and quantify the basic reproduction number, which is shown to be dependent on some parameters, such as quarantined rate, infectivity and network structures. A theoretical result further indicates the heterogeneity of networks and higher infectivity will raise the disease transmission risk while quarantine measure will contribute to the prevention of epidemic spreading. Meanwhile, the contact assumption between susceptibles and infectives may impact the disease transmission. Furthermore, we prove that the basic reproduction number serves as a threshold value for the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria and the uniform persistence of the disease on the network by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. Finally, some numerical simulations are illustrated to perform and complement our analytical results.

Optimal control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci using preventive care and treatment of infections.

PubMed

Lowden, Jonathan; Miller Neilan, Rachael; Yahdi, Mohammed

2014-03-01

The rising prevalence of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) is a major health problem in intensive care units (ICU) because of its association with increased mortality and high health care costs. We present a mathematical framework for determining cost-effective strategies for prevention and treatment of VRE in the ICU. A system of five ordinary differential equations describes the movement of ICU patients in and out of five VRE-related states. Two control variables representing the prevention and treatment of VRE are incorporated into the system. The basic reproductive number is derived and calculated for different levels of the two controls. An optimal control problem is formulated to minimize VRE-related deaths and costs associated with prevention and treatment controls over a finite time period. Numerical solutions illustrate optimal single and dual allocations of the controls for various cost values. Results show that preventive care has the greatest impact in reducing the basic reproductive number, while treatment of VRE infections has the most impact on reducing VRE-related deaths. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemic spreading on one-way-coupled networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lingna; Sun, Mengfeng; Chen, Shanshan; Fu, Xinchu

2016-09-01

Numerous real-world networks (e.g., social, communicational, and biological networks) have been observed to depend on each other, and this results in interconnected networks with different topology structures and dynamics functions. In this paper, we focus on the scenario of epidemic spreading on one-way-coupled networks comprised of two subnetworks, which can manifest the transmission of some zoonotic diseases. By proposing a mathematical model through mean-field approximation approach, we prove the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria of this model. Through the theoretical and numerical analysis, we obtain interesting results: the basic reproduction number R0 of the whole network is the maximum of the basic reproduction numbers of the two subnetworks; R0 is independent of the cross-infection rate and cross contact pattern; R0 increases rapidly with the growth of inner infection rate if the inner contact pattern is scale-free; in order to eradicate zoonotic diseases from human beings, we must simultaneously eradicate them from animals; bird-to-bird infection rate has bigger impact on the human's average infected density than bird-to-human infection rate.

Evidence for ASD recurrence rates and reproductive stoppage from large UK ASD research family databases.

PubMed

Wood, Claire L; Warnell, Frances; Johnson, Mary; Hames, Annette; Pearce, Mark S; McConachie, Helen; Parr, Jeremy R

2015-02-01

Following a diagnosis of a developmental disorder such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in early childhood, parents may decide to have fewer children than previously planned. The tendency for families to halt reproduction after receiving a diagnosis for one child is known as reproductive stoppage. Stoppage may lead to an underestimate of recurrence risk estimates of parents having more than one child with ASD. Using two large UK ASD family databases, we investigated recurrence rates for ASD and evidence for reproductive stoppage for both ASD and undiagnosed ASD/broader autism phenotype in a subgroup of families. Reproductive stoppage was tested for using the Mann-Whitney U-test to disprove the null hypothesis that affected and nonaffected children were distributed randomly by birth order. Dahlberg's later-sib method was used to estimate recurrence risk and take stoppage into account. Data were available from 299 families (660 children) including 327 with ASD. Ten percent of the complete families had more than one child with an ASD. Using Dahlberg's later-sib method, the recurrence risk for ASD was 24.7% overall and 50.0% in families with two or more older siblings with ASD. Children with ASD were born significantly later in families than those without ASD in all sibship combinations. This study shows strong evidence that ASD is associated with reproductive stoppage. These data have important implications for family planning and genetic counseling. © 2014 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Energetics of growth and reproduction in a high-tidal population of the clam Ruditapes decussatus from Urdaibai Estuary (Basque Country, N. Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, M. B.; Ibarrola, I.; Iglesias, J. I. P.; Navarro, E.

1999-08-01

Energetics of growth and reproduction were studied in a high-tidal population of the clam Ruditapes decussatus living in the Mundaka Estuary in the Biosphere Reserve of Urdaibai (Basque Country, North Spain). The study included an analysis of growth rings on the shells to establish the growth curve as well as seasonal patterns of growth and body condition, and estimates of the breeding cycle including quantification of the reproductive output and reproductive effort. The simultaneous determination of the seasonal course of metabolism allowed estimates of assimilation, growth efficiency and reproductive costs. Growth rates were consistently lower in this population than in other populations from similar latitudes, and this effect is interpreted in terms of nutritional restrictions caused by the high tidal position of the population. Assimilation rapidly increased from March to July, as a consequence of optimal nutritional conditions and increasing water temperatures. Somatic growth (spring) and gonadal development (early summer) both took place during this period. Negative growth was restricted to the winter and late summer and was associated with poor nutritional conditions (winter) and high rates of metabolic expenditure induced by high temperatures (late summer). Net growth efficiencies (ranging from 27% in 1-y-old to 6% in 7-y-old individuals) ranked among the lowest recorded for populations of marine bivalves. Reduced reproductive-effort values were consistent with the poor growing conditions that appeared to characterise this population of clams.

Relationships of efficiency to reproductive disorders in Danish milk production: a stochastic frontier analysis.

PubMed

Lawson, L G; Bruun, J; Coelli, T; Agger, J F; Lund, M

2004-01-01

Relationships of various reproductive disorders and milk production performance of Danish dairy farms were investigated. A stochastic frontier production function was estimated using data collected in 1998 from 514 Danish dairy farms. Measures of farm-level milk production efficiency relative to this production frontier were obtained, and relationships between milk production efficiency and the incidence risk of reproductive disorders were examined. There were moderate positive relationships between milk production efficiency and retained placenta, induction of estrus, uterine infections, ovarian cysts, and induction of birth. Inclusion of reproductive management variables showed that these moderate relationships disappeared, but directions of coefficients for almost all those variables remained the same. Dystocia showed a weak negative correlation with milk production efficiency. Farms that were mainly managed by young farmers had the highest average efficiency scores. The estimated milk losses due to inefficiency averaged 1142, 488, and 256 kg of energy-corrected milk per cow, respectively, for low-, medium-, and high-efficiency herds. It is concluded that the availability of younger cows, which enabled farmers to replace cows with reproductive disorders, contributed to high cow productivity in efficient farms. Thus, a high replacement rate more than compensates for the possible negative effect of reproductive disorders. The use of frontier production and efficiency/inefficiency functions to analyze herd data may enable dairy advisors to identify inefficient herds and to simulate the effect of alternative management procedures on the individual herd's efficiency.

Seasonality and synchrony of reproduction in three species of nectarivorous Philippines bats.

PubMed

Heideman, Paul D; Utzurrum, Ruth C B

2003-11-21

Differences among species and among years in reproductive seasonality (the tendency for clusters of events to fall at approximately the same point in each year) and synchrony (amount of clustering of events within a year) have been intensively studied in bats, but are difficult to assess. Here, we use randomization methods with circular statistics to test for synchrony and seasonality of reproduction in three species of nectarivorous megachiropteran bats on Negros Island in the central Philippines. In Rousettus amplexicaudatus, estimated dates of birth were both highly synchronous and highly seasonal. In Macroglossus minimus, estimated births were seasonal and significantly clustered within years, but within each year births occurred over a broad period, indicating a low level of synchrony. In Eonycteris spelaea, estimated births were also seasonal and had statistically significant synchrony, with birth periods within years intermediate in synchrony between R. amplexicaudatus and M. minimus. All three species had a similar seasonal pattern, with two birth periods in each year, centered on March or April and August or September. In one species, R. amplexicaudatus, primigravid females (in their first pregnancy) produced their young in June and July, a birth period significantly different in timing from the two birth periods of older adult females. This more conservative pattern of young females may allow higher survival of parents and offspring at cost of a lost reproductive opportunity. There was weak evidence that in some years primigravid females of M. minimus might differ in timing from older adults. There were few significant differences in reproductive timing among different years, and those differences were generally less than two weeks, even during a severe drought in the severe el Niño of 1983. The results suggest that these species follow an obligately seasonal pattern of reproductive timing with very little phenotypic plasticity. The resampling methods were sensitive to differences in timing of under two weeks, in some cases, suggesting that these are useful methods for analyses of seasonality in wild populations of bats.

Encouraging science reading beyond the curriculum.

PubMed

Lamberson, W R; Smith, M F

2005-08-01

Students in genetics and reproductive physiology, junior-/senior-level courses with enrollments averaging 76 and 41 students, respectively, were encouraged to read popular science books for extra credit. The objectives of the readings were to reinforce basic class concepts by forming ties to everyday life, and to expose students to a genre that can provide information to prepare them as citizens to engage in the debate over current issues. The books for genetics were The Double Helix, Genome, Voyage of the Beagle, and The Engineer in the Garden; and the books for reproductive physiology were Clone, Lives of a Cell, Life Before Birth and A Time to be Born, and The Second Creation: Dolly and The Age of Biological Control. To earn credit (3% of the course grade for each of up to three books), students had to demonstrate knowledge and understanding of each book during a 15-min discussion with the instructor. Discussions focused on questions designed to stimulate critical thinking about each book's content. For example: "There is approximately 98% homology in DNA sequence between humans and chimpanzees; in aspects ranging from basic physiology to behavior, what makes us similar to or different from the species that is our closest living relative?" The numbers of students reading three books in Years 1 and 2 were 2 and 12 in genetics, and 4 and 3 in reproductive physiology; those reading two books in Years 1 and 2 were 5 and 20 in genetics, and 0 and 2 in reproductive physiology; and those reading one book in Years 1 and 2 were 21 and 31 in genetics, and 7 and 8 in reproductive physiology. The numbers of students that read no books in Years 1 and 2 were 33 and 27 in genetics, and 45 and 20 in reproductive physiology. Participation in the reading project occurred independently of course grades. Sixteen genetics students from the second year's class, eight that had participated in the extra credit reading and eight that had not, volunteered to be reexamined on material from the class. The reexamination was conducted 3 mo after the end of the class. With first exam score fitted as a covariate (P < 0.10), participation in the extra credit reading assignment did not affect score on the reexamination; participants averaged 67% correct answers, nonparticipants averaged 59% (P = 0.37). Comments on course evaluations indicated broad satisfaction with the assignments. Although no improvement of retention could be documented from this project, our objective of encouraging students to engage in reading material supplemental to courses in genetics and reproductive physiology was satisfied.

A method for estimating fall adult sex ratios from production and survival data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wight, H.M.; Heath, R.G.; Geis, A.D.

1965-01-01

This paper presents a method of utilizing data relating to the production and survival of a bird population to estimate a basic fall adult sex ratio. This basic adult sex ratio is an average value derived from average production and survival rates. It is an estimate of the average sex ratio about which the fall adult ratios will fluctuate according to annual variations in production and survival. The basic fall adult sex ratio has been calculated as an asymptotic value which is the limit of an infinite series wherein average population characteristics are used as constants. Graphs are provided that allow the determination of basic sex ratios from production and survival data of a population. Where the respective asymptote has been determined, it may be possible to estimate various production and survival rates by use of variations of the formula for estimating the asymptote.

[For a sexual health free from violence].

PubMed

1995-12-01

The United Nations has conducted world conferences on development and people. The conference in Cairo on development and population produced a Plan of Action, and the one in Beijing on women produced a Platform of Action, that obligate all in the public and private sectors to execute new programs in the area of sexual and reproductive health. These documents were adopted by consensus and explain such basic concepts as equality; policies sensitive to gender; violence against women and its implications; the relationship between development, population, the environment, and women; and the new sexual and reproductive rights. These platforms and action plans help Profamilia to complete its programs for men, women, and youth. In this spirit Profamilia has realized a series of efforts to internalize a respect for liberty and equality for women and to understand reproductive responsibilities for both sexes. The new secretary general of the International Federation of Planned Parenthood declared in Beijing that as long as there are women who lack the freedom to exercise their reproductive options and continue to suffer and die from unwanted pregnancy the global nongovernmental organizations must work assiduously to reinforce their solidarity with these women to make a difference. The Colombian population awaits public policies that achieve sexual and reproductive health free of coercion, discrimination, and violence.

Training in reproductive health and sexuality: the case of a regional program in Latin America.

PubMed

Ramos, S; Gogna, M

1997-01-01

Beginning in July 1993, a 5-year program has sought to provide social research, training, and technical assistance in reproductive health and sexuality in Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Colombia by 1) building research capacity and promoting an interdisciplinary approach to reproductive health and sexuality and 2) promoting a gender perspective to these issues. The target groups are women's nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); family planning, reproductive health, and women's health providers; and social scientists conducting health-related research. Training activities include regional workshops, a Regional Resident Fellowship Program to support graduate-level education, and provision of technical assistance. The first 3 years of the program have revealed that the basic training needs in these areas include 1) helping women's NGOs improve their record-keeping capacity, evaluation processes, theoretical and methodological background, and institutional-building ability; 2) sensitizing women's health providers to sociocultural dimension of health-illness issues and to a gender and human rights perspective; and 3) training social scientist researchers to apply their skills in applied research, develop their theoretical background, and improve research quality control procedures. The main challenges for training activities in the field of reproductive health and sexuality are posed by the complexity of the issues and their interdisciplinary nature.

[Historical Transition of Sexuality Education in Japan and Outline of Reproductive Health/Rights].

PubMed

Nishioka, Emiko

2018-01-01

In this paper, we describe the historical transition of sexuality education in Japan and the direction of sexuality education taken by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). Reproductive health/rights, a key concept in sex education, is also discussed. In Japanese society, discussion on sexuality has long been considered taboo. After the Second World War, sexuality education in Japan began as "purity education." From 1960 until the early 1970s, physical aspects such as genital organs, function, secondary sexual characteristics, and gender differences were emphasized. Comprehensive education as a human being, including physiological, psychological, and social aspects, began to be adopted in the late 1970s. In 2002, it was criticized that teaching genital terms at primary schools and teaching about sexual intercourse and contraceptive methods at junior high schools were "overdue guidance" and "extreme contents." Sexuality education in schools has become a problem and has stagnated for about 10 years. Currently, schools teach sexuality education that does not deviate from the MEXT course guidelines. The direction of MEXT regarding sexuality education should be examined from the basic position that sexual activity by children is inappropriate. Reproductive health/rights apply the concept of human rights to sexuality and reproduction. Reproductive health/rights are key concepts that support sex education and women's health.

Consequences for conservation: population density and genetic effects on reproduction of an endangered lagomorph.

PubMed

Demay, Stephanie M; Becker, Penny A; Waits, Lisette P; Johnson, Timothy R; Rachlow, Janet L

2016-04-01

Understanding reproduction and mating systems is important for managers tasked with conserving vulnerable species. Genetic tools allow biologists to investigate reproduction and mating systems with high resolution and are particularly useful for species that are otherwise difficult to study in their natural environments. We conducted parentage analyses using 19 nuclear DNA microsatellite loci to assess the influence of population density, genetic diversity, and ancestry on reproduction, and to examine the mating system of pygmy rabbits (Brachylagus idahoensis) bred in large naturalized enclosures for the reintroduction and recovery of the endangered distinct population in central Washington, USA. Reproductive output for females and males decreased as population density and individual homozygosity increased. We identified an interaction indicating that male reproductive output decreased as genetic diversity declined at high population densities, but there was no effect at low densities. Males with high amounts (> 50%) of Washington ancestry had higher reproductive output than the other ancestry groups, while reproductive output was decreased for males with high northern Utah/Wyoming ancestry and females with high Oregon/Nevada ancestry. Females and males bred with an average of 3.8 and 3.6 mates per year, respectively, and we found no evidence of positive or negative assortative mating with regards to ancestry. Multiple paternity was confirmed in 81% of litters, and we report the first documented cases of juvenile breeding by pygmy rabbits. This study demonstrates how variation in population density, genetic diversity, and ancestry impact fitness for an endangered species being bred for conservation. Our results advance understanding of basic life history characteristics for a cryptic species that is difficult to study in the wild and provide lessons for managing populations of vulnerable species in captive and free-ranging populations.

Stratifying the potential local transmission of Zika in municipalities of Antioquia, Colombia.

PubMed

Ospina, Juan; Hincapie-Palacio, Doracelly; Ochoa, Jesús; Molina, Adriana; Rúa, Guillermo; Pájaro, Dubán; Arrubla, Marcela; Almanza, Rita; Paredes, Marlio; Mubayi, Anuj

2017-10-01

To stratify and understand the potential transmission processes of Zika virus in Colombia, in order to effectively address the efforts on surveillance and disease control. We compare R 0 of Zika for municipalities based on data from the regional surveillance system of Antioquia, Colombia. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and its 95% confidence intervals were estimated from an SIR model with implicit vector dynamics, in terms of recovered individuals in each time unit, using an approximate solution. These parameters were estimated fitting the solution of the model to the daily cumulative frequency of each Zika case according to symptoms onset date relative to the index case reported to the local surveillance system. R 0 was estimated for 20 municipalities with a median of 30 000 inhabitants, all located less than 2200 m above sea level. The reported cases ranged from 17 to 347 between these municipalities within 4 months (January to April of 2016). The results suggest that 15 municipalities had a high transmission potential (R 0  > 1), whereas in five municipality transmissions were potentially not sustaining (R 0  < 1), although the upper bound of the confidence interval of the R 0 for 3 of these 5 was greater than one, indicating the possibility of an outbreak later on. The study identified high-risk municipalities (R 0  > 1) and provide a technique to optimise surveillance and control of Zika. Health authorities should promote the collection, analysis, modelling and sharing of anonymous data onto individual cases to estimate R 0 . © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Aircraft parameter estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, Kenneth W.

1987-01-01

The aircraft parameter estimation problem is used to illustrate the utility of parameter estimation, which applies to many engineering and scientific fields. Maximum likelihood estimation has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. This paper presents some of the basic concepts of aircraft parameter estimation and briefly surveys the literature in the field. The maximum likelihood estimator is discussed, and the basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple simulated aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Some of the major conclusions for the simulated example are also developed for the analysis of flight data from the F-14, highly maneuverable aircraft technology (HiMAT), and space shuttle vehicles.

Approximation of epidemic models by diffusion processes and their statistical inference.

PubMed

Guy, Romain; Larédo, Catherine; Vergu, Elisabeta

2015-02-01

Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes [Formula: see text] on [Formula: see text] form a usual set-up for modeling [Formula: see text]-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on [Formula: see text] is not easy to be achieved. Here, we start building a new framework for the estimation of key parameters of epidemic models based on statistics of diffusion processes approximating [Formula: see text]. First, previous results on the approximation of density-dependent [Formula: see text]-like models by diffusion processes with small diffusion coefficient [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the population size, are generalized to non-autonomous systems. Second, our previous inference results on discretely observed diffusion processes with small diffusion coefficient are extended to time-dependent diffusions. Consistent and asymptotically Gaussian estimates are obtained for a fixed number [Formula: see text] of observations, which corresponds to the epidemic context, and for [Formula: see text]. A correction term, which yields better estimates non asymptotically, is also included. Finally, performances and robustness of our estimators with respect to various parameters such as [Formula: see text] (the basic reproduction number), [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] are investigated on simulations. Two models, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], corresponding to single and recurrent outbreaks, respectively, are used to simulate data. The findings indicate that our estimators have good asymptotic properties and behave noticeably well for realistic numbers of observations and population sizes. This study lays the foundations of a generic inference method currently under extension to incompletely observed epidemic data. Indeed, contrary to the majority of current inference techniques for partially observed processes, which necessitates computer intensive simulations, our method being mostly an analytical approach requires only the classical optimization steps.

Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in São Paulo, Brazil

PubMed Central

Mondini, Adriano; Bronzoni, Roberta Vieira de Moraes; Nunes, Silvia Helena Pereira; Chiaravalloti Neto, Francisco; Massad, Eduardo; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Lázzaro, Eduardo S. M.; Ferraz, Amena Alcântara; de Andrade Zanotto, Paolo Marinho; Nogueira, Maurício Lacerda

2009-01-01

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of ∼10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1–4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in São José do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000–2001. Sixty DENV-3 from São José do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R0 = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R0 = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area. PMID:19478848

Demographic profile of sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil from 1973 to 2008.

PubMed

Câmara, Fernando Portela; de Carvalho, Luiz Max; Gomes, Ana Luisa Bacellar

2013-05-01

Yellow fever is an acute, frequently fatal, febrile arbovirosis that in Brazil occurs only in the sylvatic form. Sylvatic yellow fever (SYF) appears in sporadic outbreaks over a large area of Brazil. In this paper, we analyze the demographic profile of 831 SYF cases that occurred between 1973 and 2008, to determine which segments of the exposed population are at greater risk. Data were statistically analyzed and were also geo-referenced in order to observe their spatial pattern. The basic reproductive number of infections, R0, was estimated by the ratio between average life expectancy and the average age of the cases. SYF cases showed a modal profile of young male adults, approximately 30 years of age, living in rural areas of the states of Pará, Goiás, Maranhão and Minas Gerais, who were unvaccinated or whose vaccination was out of date. The disease showed a high mortality rate (51%, 421/831) among the notified cases, with death occurring on around the seventh day of illness for most patients. The R0 for SYF was estimated at approximately 2.4. The results of this study suggest that lack of vaccination coverage is a major risk factor for SYF, and that the groups most at risk are migrant laborers, farm workers and tourists.

Modeling the within-host dynamics of cholera: bacterial-viral interaction.

PubMed

Wang, Xueying; Wang, Jin

2017-08-01

Novel deterministic and stochastic models are proposed in this paper for the within-host dynamics of cholera, with a focus on the bacterial-viral interaction. The deterministic model is a system of differential equations describing the interaction among the two types of vibrios and the viruses. The stochastic model is a system of Markov jump processes that is derived based on the dynamics of the deterministic model. The multitype branching process approximation is applied to estimate the extinction probability of bacteria and viruses within a human host during the early stage of the bacterial-viral infection. Accordingly, a closed-form expression is derived for the disease extinction probability, and analytic estimates are validated with numerical simulations. The local and global dynamics of the bacterial-viral interaction are analysed using the deterministic model, and the result indicates that there is a sharp disease threshold characterized by the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]: if [Formula: see text], vibrios ingested from the environment into human body will not cause cholera infection; if [Formula: see text], vibrios will grow with increased toxicity and persist within the host, leading to human cholera. In contrast, the stochastic model indicates, more realistically, that there is always a positive probability of disease extinction within the human host.

The ethics of assisted reproduction.

PubMed

Chatzinikolaou, Nikolaos

2010-05-01

Issues concerning the beginning of life and medical intervention in the onset of human existence are very delicate in their nature; they involve multi-dimensional knowledge, they are difficult to comprehend and sensitive to handle. When pure scientific elements are combined with profound emotions, when the genius of technological discoveries touches upon human dignity and sanctity, when passion for the technological achievement intervenes in basic human rights, then the sense of inadequacy and ignorance becomes intense and critical. Silence seems more sought-after than words, and willingness to learn more prudent than the desire to speak. Fear of the inconceivable consequences and even more so the inability to assess them, experiments with the unknown, the likelihood that basic historical, ethical and social values may change forever, but mainly the replacement of God in His wondrous work of creation--the onset of human life--places the ethics of reproductive technologies on the frontline of contemporary bioethics. This opinion paper does not deal with dangers, insults, fears, threats, "speed limits" or ethical controversies, but rather with the very mystery of life. Although there are no generally accepted replies to the various questions being posed, some thoughts and reservations, which can shed some light upon complicated dilemmas are presented. Firstly, the content of reproductive technologies, the problem of infertility today, the methods of fertility treatment, and of prenatal and pre-implantation testing are described, and then the social impact of IVF, complicated cases, deontological dilemmas and some ethical concerns are discussed. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid Expansion on Women of Reproductive Age: Differences by Parental Status and State Policies.

PubMed

Johnston, Emily M; Strahan, Andrea E; Joski, Peter; Dunlop, Anne L; Adams, E Kathleen

We use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 2012 to 2015 to estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) Medicaid expansions on insurance coverage and access to care for low-income women of reproductive age (19-44). We use two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences models to estimate the effects of Medicaid expansions on low-income (<100% of the Federal Poverty Level) women of reproductive age. Additional models are stratified to estimate effects based on women's parental status, pre-ACA state Medicaid eligibility levels, and the presence of a state Medicaid family planning waiver. ACA Medicaid expansions decreased uninsurance among low-income women of reproductive age by 13.2 percentage points. This decrease was driven by a decrease of 27.4 percentage points for women without dependent children, who also experienced a decrease in the likelihood of not having a personal doctor (13.3 percentage points). We find a 3.8-percentage point reduction in the likelihood of experiencing a cost barrier to care among all women, but no significant effects for other access measures or subgroups. When stratified by state policies, decreases in uninsurance were greater in states expanding from pre-ACA eligibility levels of less than 50% of Federal Poverty Level (19.4 percentage points) and in states without a Medicaid family planning waiver (17.6 percentage points). The ACA Medicaid expansion increased insurance coverage for low-income women of reproductive age, with the greatest effects for women without dependent children and women residing in states with relatively lower pre-ACA Medicaid eligibility levels or with no family planning waiver before the ACA. Copyright © 2017 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reproductive health and genetic testing in the Third World.

PubMed

Penchaszadeh, V B

1993-09-01

New reproductive genetics means recently developed techniques to prevent the birth of children with specific defects or genetic diseases by testing individuals for sickle cell anemia, the thalassemias, Tay-Sachs disease, cystic fibrosis, or Down syndrome. Third World health services have many deficiencies with high maternal mortality rates (30-40 fold higher than in developed countries), the low percentage of births delivered by health personnel, the high rates of low birth weight babies, and high child malnutrition and infant mortality rates. The main issues in women's reproductive health are fertility regulation, abortion, maternal mortality, sexually transmitted diseases, and infertility. As a result of expansion in contraceptive use worldwide, the total fertility rate in developing countries has declined from 6.1 in 1965 to 3.9 in 1990. It is estimated that, worldwide, 36-53 million induced abortions are performed each year, most of them in developing nations. WHO estimates that more than 500,000 women die each year because of complications of pregnancy, most in developing countries. More than 95% of the 13 million estimated deaths of children under 5 years of age have occurred in these countries. Approximately 200 million people carry a potentially pathologic hemoglobinopathy gene, and about 250,000 children are born every year with hemoglobinopathy, most of them in the developing world. Reproductive genetic testing in big cities and in private for-profit ventures cater to the socioeconomic elite. Amniocentesis is often misused for fetal sex determination to abort female fetuses in India. Currently, in Cuba virtually every pregnant woman is tested for sickle cell trait and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels between 15 and 20 weeks of gestation. It is predicted that the judicious use of reproductive genetic testing will be possible when health and quality of life issues are addressed properly.

Live porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus vaccines: current status and future direction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) caused by PRRS virus (PRRSV) was reported in the late 1980's. PRRS still is a huge economic concern to the global pig industry with a current annual loss estimated at one billion US dollars in North America alone. It has been 20 years since the fi...

Family Planning and Child Survival: The Role of Reproductive Factors in Infant and Child Mortality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conly, Shanti R.

This report summarizes the evidence that family planning can reduce deaths of children under 5 years of age at a reasonable cost. The report also: (1) identifies the major reproductive factors associated with child mortality; (2) estimates the approximate reduction in child mortality that could be achieved through improved childbearing patterns;…

Evaluation of genetic components in traits related to superovulation, in vitro fertilization, and embryo transfer in Holstein cattle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objectives of this study were to estimate variance components and identify regions of the genome associated with traits related to embryo transfer in Holsteins. Reproductive technologies are used in the dairy industry to increase the reproductive rate of superior females. A drawback of these met...

Genetic effects for reproductive performance of straightbred and crossbred Romosinuano and Angus cows in a temperate zone

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objectives of this work were to: 1) estimate heterosis and breed direct effects for cow reproduction traits of Romosinuano, Angus, and F1 cows in a temperate climate, and 2) assess the effects of the type of forage grazed (bermudagrass, endophyte-infected and endophyte-free tall fescue) durin...

Metabolic costs of capital energy storage in a small-bodied ectotherm.

PubMed

Griffen, Blaine D

2017-04-01

Reproduction is energetically financed using strategies that fall along a continuum from animals that rely on stored energy acquired prior to reproduction (i.e., capital breeders) to those that rely on energy acquired during reproduction (i.e., income breeders). Energy storage incurs a metabolic cost. However, previous studies suggest that this cost may be minimal for small-bodied ectotherms. Here I test this assumption. I use a laboratory feeding experiment with the European green crab Carcinus maenas to establish individuals with different amounts of energy storage. I then demonstrate that differences in energy storage account for 26% of the variation in basal metabolic costs. The magnitudes of these costs for any individual crab vary through time depending on the amount of energy it has stored, as well as on temperature-dependent metabolism. I use previously established relationships between temperature- and mass-dependent metabolic rates, combined with a feasible annual pattern of energy storage in the Gulf of Maine and annual sea surface temperature patterns in this region, to estimate potential annual metabolic costs expected for mature female green crabs. Results indicate that energy storage should incur an ~8% increase in metabolic costs for female crabs, relative to a hypothetical crab that did not store any energy. Translated into feeding, for a medium-sized mature female (45 mm carapace width), this requires the consumption of an additional ~156 mussels annually to support the metabolic cost of energy storage. These results indicate, contrary to previous assumptions, that the cost of energy storage for small-bodied ectotherms may represent a considerable portion of their basic operating energy budget. An inability to meet these additional costs of energy storage may help explain the recent decline of green crabs in the Gulf of Maine where reduced prey availability and increased consumer competition have combined to hamper green crab foraging success in recent years.

Incorporating heterogeneity into the transmission dynamics of a waterborne disease model.

PubMed

Collins, O C; Govinder, K S

2014-09-07

We formulate a mathematical model that captures the essential dynamics of waterborne disease transmission to study the effects of heterogeneity on the spread of the disease. The effects of heterogeneity on some important mathematical features of the model such as the basic reproduction number, type reproduction number and final outbreak size are analysed accordingly. We conduct a real-world application of this model by using it to investigate the heterogeneity in transmission in the recent cholera outbreak in Haiti. By evaluating the measure of heterogeneity between the administrative departments in Haiti, we discover a significant difference in the dynamics of the cholera outbreak between the departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: Data descriptions and epidemic modelling.

PubMed

Nguyen, Van Kinh; Parra-Rojas, César; Hernandez-Vargas, Esteban A

2018-06-01

From August to November 2017, Madagascar endured an outbreak of plague. A total of 2417 cases of plague were confirmed, causing a death toll of 209. Public health intervention efforts were introduced and successfully stopped the epidemic at the end of November. The plague, however, is endemic in the region and occurs annually, posing the risk of future outbreaks. To understand the plague transmission, we collected real-time data from official reports, described the outbreak's characteristics, and estimated transmission parameters using statistical and mathematical models. The pneumonic plague epidemic curve exhibited multiple peaks, coinciding with sporadic introductions of new bubonic cases. Optimal climate conditions for rat flea to flourish were observed during the epidemic. Estimate of the plague basic reproduction number during the large wave of the epidemic was high, ranging from 5 to 7 depending on model assumptions. The incubation and infection periods for bubonic and pneumonic plague were 4.3 and 3.4 days and 3.8 and 2.9 days, respectively. Parameter estimation suggested that even with a small fraction of the population exposed to infected rat fleas (1/10,000) and a small probability of transition from a bubonic case to a secondary pneumonic case (3%), the high human-to-human transmission rate can still generate a large outbreak. Controlling rodent and fleas can prevent new index cases, but managing human-to-human transmission is key to prevent large-scale outbreaks. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faria, N. R.; Quick, J.; Claro, I. M.; Thézé, J.; de Jesus, J. G.; Giovanetti, M.; Kraemer, M. U. G.; Hill, S. C.; Black, A.; da Costa, A. C.; Franco, L. C.; Silva, S. P.; Wu, C.-H.; Raghwani, J.; Cauchemez, S.; Du Plessis, L.; Verotti, M. P.; de Oliveira, W. K.; Carmo, E. H.; Coelho, G. E.; Santelli, A. C. F. S.; Vinhal, L. C.; Henriques, C. M.; Simpson, J. T.; Loose, M.; Andersen, K. G.; Grubaugh, N. D.; Somasekar, S.; Chiu, C. Y.; Muñoz-Medina, J. E.; Gonzalez-Bonilla, C. R.; Arias, C. F.; Lewis-Ximenez, L. L.; Baylis, S. A.; Chieppe, A. O.; Aguiar, S. F.; Fernandes, C. A.; Lemos, P. S.; Nascimento, B. L. S.; Monteiro, H. A. O.; Siqueira, I. C.; de Queiroz, M. G.; de Souza, T. R.; Bezerra, J. F.; Lemos, M. R.; Pereira, G. F.; Loudal, D.; Moura, L. C.; Dhalia, R.; França, R. F.; Magalhães, T.; Marques, E. T.; Jaenisch, T.; Wallau, G. L.; de Lima, M. C.; Nascimento, V.; de Cerqueira, E. M.; de Lima, M. M.; Mascarenhas, D. L.; Neto, J. P. Moura; Levin, A. S.; Tozetto-Mendoza, T. R.; Fonseca, S. N.; Mendes-Correa, M. C.; Milagres, F. P.; Segurado, A.; Holmes, E. C.; Rambaut, A.; Bedford, T.; Nunes, M. R. T.; Sabino, E. C.; Alcantara, L. C. J.; Loman, N. J.; Pybus, O. G.

2017-06-01

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas was first confirmed in May 2015 in northeast Brazil. Brazil has had the highest number of reported ZIKV cases worldwide (more than 200,000 by 24 December 2016) and the most cases associated with microcephaly and other birth defects (2,366 confirmed by 31 December 2016). Since the initial detection of ZIKV in Brazil, more than 45 countries in the Americas have reported local ZIKV transmission, with 24 of these reporting severe ZIKV-associated disease. However, the origin and epidemic history of ZIKV in Brazil and the Americas remain poorly understood, despite the value of this information for interpreting observed trends in reported microcephaly. Here we address this issue by generating 54 complete or partial ZIKV genomes, mostly from Brazil, and reporting data generated by a mobile genomics laboratory that travelled across northeast Brazil in 2016. One sequence represents the earliest confirmed ZIKV infection in Brazil. Analyses of viral genomes with ecological and epidemiological data yield an estimate that ZIKV was present in northeast Brazil by February 2014 and is likely to have disseminated from there, nationally and internationally, before the first detection of ZIKV in the Americas. Estimated dates for the international spread of ZIKV from Brazil indicate the duration of pre-detection cryptic transmission in recipient regions. The role of northeast Brazil in the establishment of ZIKV in the Americas is further supported by geographic analysis of ZIKV transmission potential and by estimates of the basic reproduction number of the virus.

Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas.

PubMed

Faria, N R; Quick, J; Claro, I M; Thézé, J; de Jesus, J G; Giovanetti, M; Kraemer, M U G; Hill, S C; Black, A; da Costa, A C; Franco, L C; Silva, S P; Wu, C-H; Raghwani, J; Cauchemez, S; du Plessis, L; Verotti, M P; de Oliveira, W K; Carmo, E H; Coelho, G E; Santelli, A C F S; Vinhal, L C; Henriques, C M; Simpson, J T; Loose, M; Andersen, K G; Grubaugh, N D; Somasekar, S; Chiu, C Y; Muñoz-Medina, J E; Gonzalez-Bonilla, C R; Arias, C F; Lewis-Ximenez, L L; Baylis, S A; Chieppe, A O; Aguiar, S F; Fernandes, C A; Lemos, P S; Nascimento, B L S; Monteiro, H A O; Siqueira, I C; de Queiroz, M G; de Souza, T R; Bezerra, J F; Lemos, M R; Pereira, G F; Loudal, D; Moura, L C; Dhalia, R; França, R F; Magalhães, T; Marques, E T; Jaenisch, T; Wallau, G L; de Lima, M C; Nascimento, V; de Cerqueira, E M; de Lima, M M; Mascarenhas, D L; Neto, J P Moura; Levin, A S; Tozetto-Mendoza, T R; Fonseca, S N; Mendes-Correa, M C; Milagres, F P; Segurado, A; Holmes, E C; Rambaut, A; Bedford, T; Nunes, M R T; Sabino, E C; Alcantara, L C J; Loman, N J; Pybus, O G

2017-06-15

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas was first confirmed in May 2015 in northeast Brazil. Brazil has had the highest number of reported ZIKV cases worldwide (more than 200,000 by 24 December 2016) and the most cases associated with microcephaly and other birth defects (2,366 confirmed by 31 December 2016). Since the initial detection of ZIKV in Brazil, more than 45 countries in the Americas have reported local ZIKV transmission, with 24 of these reporting severe ZIKV-associated disease. However, the origin and epidemic history of ZIKV in Brazil and the Americas remain poorly understood, despite the value of this information for interpreting observed trends in reported microcephaly. Here we address this issue by generating 54 complete or partial ZIKV genomes, mostly from Brazil, and reporting data generated by a mobile genomics laboratory that travelled across northeast Brazil in 2016. One sequence represents the earliest confirmed ZIKV infection in Brazil. Analyses of viral genomes with ecological and epidemiological data yield an estimate that ZIKV was present in northeast Brazil by February 2014 and is likely to have disseminated from there, nationally and internationally, before the first detection of ZIKV in the Americas. Estimated dates for the international spread of ZIKV from Brazil indicate the duration of pre-detection cryptic transmission in recipient regions. The role of northeast Brazil in the establishment of ZIKV in the Americas is further supported by geographic analysis of ZIKV transmission potential and by estimates of the basic reproduction number of the virus.

Female Reproductive Disorders, Diseases, and Costs of Exposure to Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union.

PubMed

Hunt, Patricia A; Sathyanarayana, Sheela; Fowler, Paul A; Trasande, Leonardo

2016-04-01

A growing body of evidence suggests that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) contribute to female reproductive disorders. To calculate the associated combined health care and economic costs attributable to specific EDC exposures within the European Union (EU). An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change weight-of-evidence characterization. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated, and biomarker data were organized from carefully identified studies from the peer-reviewed literature to represent European exposure and approximate burden of disease as it occurred in 2010. Cost-of-illness estimation used multiple peer-reviewed sources. Cost estimation was carried out from a societal perspective, ie, including direct costs (eg, treatment costs) and indirect costs such as productivity loss. The most robust EDC-related data for female reproductive disorders exist for 1) diphenyldichloroethene-attributable fibroids and 2) phthalate-attributable endometriosis in Europe. In both cases, the strength of epidemiological evidence was rated as low and the toxicological evidence as moderate, with an assigned probability of causation of 20%–39%. Across the EU, attributable cases were estimated to be 56 700 and 145 000 women, respectively, with total combined economic and health care costs potentially reaching €163 million and €1.25 billion. EDCs (diphenyldichloroethene and phthalates) may contribute substantially to the most common reproductive disorders in women, endometriosis and fibroids, costing nearly €1.5 billion annually. These estimates represent only EDCs for which there were sufficient epidemiologic studies and those with the highest probability of causation. These public health costs should be considered as the EU contemplates regulatory action on EDCs.

Exploiting rRNA operon copy number to investigate bacterial reproductive strategies.

PubMed

Roller, Benjamin R K; Stoddard, Steven F; Schmidt, Thomas M

2016-09-12

The potential for rapid reproduction is a hallmark of microbial life, but microbes in nature must also survive and compete when growth is constrained by resource availability. Successful reproduction requires different strategies when resources are scarce and when they are abundant 1,2 , but a systematic framework for predicting these reproductive strategies in bacteria has not been available. Here, we show that the number of ribosomal RNA operons (rrn) in bacterial genomes predicts two important components of reproduction-growth rate and growth efficiency-which are favoured under contrasting regimes of resource availability 3,4 . We find that the maximum reproductive rate of bacteria doubles with a doubling of rrn copy number, and the efficiency of carbon use is inversely related to maximal growth rate and rrn copy number. We also identify a feasible explanation for these patterns: the rate and yield of protein synthesis mirror the overall pattern in maximum growth rate and growth efficiency. Furthermore, comparative analysis of genomes from 1,167 bacterial species reveals that rrn copy number predicts traits associated with resource availability, including chemotaxis and genome streamlining. Genome-wide patterns of orthologous gene content covary with rrn copy number, suggesting convergent evolution in response to resource availability. Our findings imply that basic cellular processes adapt in contrasting ways to long-term differences in resource availability. They also establish a basis for predicting changes in bacterial community composition in response to resource perturbations using rrn copy number measurements 5 or inferences 6,7 .

Patterns of ovarian and luteal activity in captive and wild Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis)

Treesearch

Kerry V. Fanson; Nadja C. Wielebnowski; Tanya M. Shenk; Jennifer H. Vashon; John R. Squires; Jeffrey R. Lucas

2010-01-01

Canada lynx face some unique breeding restrictions, which may have implications for population viability and captive management. The goal of this study was to improve our understanding of basic reproductive physiology in Canada lynx. Using fecal hormone metabolite analysis, we established normative patterns of fecal estrogen (fE) and progestagen (fP)...

Into Adolescence: A Time of Change. A Curriculum for Grades 5-8. Contemporary Health Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golliher, Catherine S.

This book introduces middle school students to the basic facts of human reproduction and explains the physical, emotional, and social aspects of growing into adolescence. Designed with a structured sequence of six lessons and activities, this module includes teacher scripts, reproducible worksheets, and transparency masters. Lessons cover: (1)…

Great Divides: The Cultural, Cognitive, and Social Bases of the Global Subordination of Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Epstein, Cynthia Fuchs

2007-01-01

Categorization based on sex is the most basic social divide. It is the organizational basis of most major institutions, including the division of labor in the home, the workforce, politics, and religion. Globally, women's gendered roles are regarded as subordinate to men's. The gender divide enforces women's roles in reproduction and support…

Nesting biology of Lesser Canada Geese, Branta canadensis parvipes, along the Tanana River, Alaska

Treesearch

Craig R. Ely; John M. Pearce; Roger W. Ruess

2008-01-01

Lesser Canada Geese (Brania canadensis parvipes) are widespread throughout interior regions of Alaska and Canada, yet there have been no published studies documenting basic aspects of their nesting biology. We conducted a study to determine reproductive parameters of Lesser Canada Geese nesting along the Tanana River near the city of Fairbanks, in...

A Versatile Giemsa Protocol for Permanent Nuclear Staining of Fungi

Treesearch

A. Dan Wilson

1992-01-01

A variety of cytological stains and staining procedures including Giemsa-HCL, acetic-or-cein, propionic-carmine, iron haema-toxylin, safranin O, aniline blue or trypan blue, toluidine blue and basic fuchsin or Feulgen stain have been used to investigate the nuclear condition of reproductive and somatic structures of fungi. Fluorescent stains such as acriflavin acridine...

Fundaments of plant cybernetics.

PubMed

Zucconi, F

2001-01-01

A systemic approach is proposed for analyzing plants' physiological organization and cybernesis. To this end, the plant is inspected as a system, starting from the integration of crown and root systems, and its impact on a number of basic epigenetic events. The approach proves to be axiomatic and facilitates the definition of the principles behind the plant's autonomous control of growth and reproduction.

Image analysis of anatomical traits in stalk transections of maize and other grasses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heckwolf, Sven; Heckwolf, Marlies; Kaeppler, Shawn M.

Grass stalks architecturally support leaves and reproductive structures, functionally support the transport of water and nutrients, and are harvested for multiple agricultural uses. Research on these basic and applied aspects of grass stalks would benefit from improved capabilities for measuring internal anatomical features. In particular, methods suitable for phenotyping populations of plants are needed.

Image analysis of anatomical traits in stalk transections of maize and other grasses

DOE PAGES

Heckwolf, Sven; Heckwolf, Marlies; Kaeppler, Shawn M.; ...

2015-04-09

Grass stalks architecturally support leaves and reproductive structures, functionally support the transport of water and nutrients, and are harvested for multiple agricultural uses. Research on these basic and applied aspects of grass stalks would benefit from improved capabilities for measuring internal anatomical features. In particular, methods suitable for phenotyping populations of plants are needed.

The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models.

PubMed

Diekmann, O; Heesterbeek, J A P; Roberts, M G

2010-06-06

The basic reproduction number (0) is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. The next-generation matrix (NGM) is the natural basis for the definition and calculation of (0) where finitely many different categories of individuals are recognized. We clear up confusion that has been around in the literature concerning the construction of this matrix, specifically for the most frequently used so-called compartmental models. We present a detailed easy recipe for the construction of the NGM from basic ingredients derived directly from the specifications of the model. We show that two related matrices exist which we define to be the NGM with large domain and the NGM with small domain. The three matrices together reflect the range of possibilities encountered in the literature for the characterization of (0). We show how they are connected and how their construction follows from the basic model ingredients, and establish that they have the same non-zero eigenvalues, the largest of which is the basic reproduction number (0). Although we present formal recipes based on linear algebra, we encourage the construction of the NGM by way of direct epidemiological reasoning, using the clear interpretation of the elements of the NGM and of the model ingredients. We present a selection of examples as a practical guide to our methods. In the appendix we present an elementary but complete proof that (0) defined as the dominant eigenvalue of the NGM for compartmental systems and the Malthusian parameter r, the real-time exponential growth rate in the early phase of an outbreak, are connected by the properties that (0) > 1 if and only if r > 0, and (0) = 1 if and only if r = 0.

The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models

PubMed Central

Diekmann, O.; Heesterbeek, J. A. P.; Roberts, M. G.

2010-01-01

The basic reproduction number ℛ0 is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. The next-generation matrix (NGM) is the natural basis for the definition and calculation of ℛ0 where finitely many different categories of individuals are recognized. We clear up confusion that has been around in the literature concerning the construction of this matrix, specifically for the most frequently used so-called compartmental models. We present a detailed easy recipe for the construction of the NGM from basic ingredients derived directly from the specifications of the model. We show that two related matrices exist which we define to be the NGM with large domain and the NGM with small domain. The three matrices together reflect the range of possibilities encountered in the literature for the characterization of ℛ0. We show how they are connected and how their construction follows from the basic model ingredients, and establish that they have the same non-zero eigenvalues, the largest of which is the basic reproduction number ℛ0. Although we present formal recipes based on linear algebra, we encourage the construction of the NGM by way of direct epidemiological reasoning, using the clear interpretation of the elements of the NGM and of the model ingredients. We present a selection of examples as a practical guide to our methods. In the appendix we present an elementary but complete proof that ℛ0 defined as the dominant eigenvalue of the NGM for compartmental systems and the Malthusian parameter r, the real-time exponential growth rate in the early phase of an outbreak, are connected by the properties that ℛ0 > 1 if and only if r > 0, and ℛ0 = 1 if and only if r = 0. PMID:19892718

A method comparison of a food frequency questionnaire to measure folate, choline, betaine, vitamin C and carotenoids with 24-h dietary recalls in women of reproductive age.

PubMed

Coathup, V; Wheeler, S; Smith, L

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to conduct a method comparison of a modified food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), designed to estimate usual dietary intake of selected micronutrients and antioxidants including folate, choline, betaine, vitamin C and carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein, lycopene and β-cryptoxanthin) with 24-h dietary recalls (24-HR) in women of reproductive age. Sixty-four British women of reproductive age (18-40 years) were recruited in Oxford, UK and provided complete dietary data for analysis. We compared micronutrient estimates from the FFQ against estimates derived from three multiple-pass, 24-HR interviews, by evaluating Pearson's correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots. Median intakes of most nutrients were higher when measured by FFQ compared with 24-HR. Strong correlation coefficients were observed for folate (r=0.80) and choline (r=0.68), whereas moderate correlation coefficients were observed for vitamin C (0.50) and lycopene (0.43). Weak correlation coefficients were observed for betaine (0.39) and other carotenoids (r=0.26-0.38). Bland-Altman plots indicated that there was a large amount of variability in the FFQ estimates of nutrient intakes compared to those using 24-HR, particularly for carotenoids. The findings indicate that this FFQ estimated higher mean intakes for most nutrients. Pearson's correlation coefficients were comparable with previous research; however, the Bland-Altman plots suggest a high variability in mean nutrient estimates between the FFQ and 24-h. We recommend further investigation of the validity of this FFQ before use.

Reproductive Biology of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga) in the Western Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dhurmeea, Zahirah; Zudaire, Iker; Chassot, Emmanuel; Cedras, Maria; Nikolic, Natacha; Bourjea, Jérôme; West, Wendy; Appadoo, Chandani

2016-01-01

The reproductive biology of albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, in the western Indian Ocean was examined through analysis of the sex ratio, spawning season, length-at-maturity (L50), spawning frequency and fecundity. From 2013 to 2015, a total of 923 female and 867 male albacore were sampled. A bias in sex ratio was found in favor of females with fork length (LF) < 100 cm. Using histological analyses and gonadosomatic index, spawning was found to occur between 10°S and 30°S, mainly to the east of Madagascar from October to January. Large females contributed more to reproduction through their longer spawning period compared to small individuals. The L50 (mean ± standard error) of female albacore was estimated at 85.3 ± 0.7 cm LF. Albacore spawn on average every 2.2 days within the spawning region and spawning months, from November to January. Batch fecundity ranged between 0.26 and 2.09 million oocytes and the relative batch fecundity (mean ± standard deviation) was estimated at 53.4 ± 23.2 oocytes g-1 of somatic-gutted weight. The study provides new information on the reproductive development and classification of albacore in the western Indian Ocean. The reproductive parameters will reduce uncertainty in current stock assessment models which will eventually assist the fishery to be sustainable for future generations. PMID:28002431

Reproductive and population parameters of spiny dogfish Squalus acanthias in the south-western Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Colonello, J H; Cortés, F; Belleggia, M; Massa, A M

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to estimate reproductive and population parameters of the spiny dogfish Squalus acanthias for the south-western Atlantic Ocean. In total, 2714 specimens (1616 males and 1098 females) were collected from surveys carried out using research vessels. Males ranged from 225 to 861 mm total length (LT ) and females from 235 to 925 mm LT . The size at maturity of females (651 mm) was significantly greater than that of males (565 mm). The maximum proportion of mature individuals (Pmax ) of the gestation ogive was <1, which indicates that a proportion of mature females was not in gestation. This inactivity may be explained by the occurrence of resting periods between cycles or by the asynchrony of the reproductive cycle. The estimated Pmax for the maternity ogive suggested that about one third of mature females were in the maternity stage (i.e. with embryos >156 mm). The temporal and spatial co-occurrence of non-gravid adult females at different stages of ovarian development, as well as gravid females at all embryonic development stages would indicate that the female reproductive cycle in the south-western Atlantic Ocean is asynchronous. The results indicate that S. acanthias is susceptible to fishing pressure on account of its length at maturity, extended reproductive cycles and low fecundity. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Effect of elevation on distribution of female bats in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cryan, P.M.; Bogan, M.A.; Altenbach, J.S.

2000-01-01

Presumably, reproductive female bats are more constrained by thermoregulatory and energy needs than are males and nonreproductive females. Constraints imposed on reproductive females may limit their geographic distribution relative to other bats. Such constraints likely increase with latitude and elevation. Males of 11 bat species that inhabit the Black Hills were captured more frequently than females, and reproductive females typically were encountered at low-elevational sites. To investigate the relationship between female distribution and elevation, we fitted a logistic regression model to evaluate the probability of reproductive-female capture as a function of elevation. Mist-net data from 1,197 captures of 7 species revealed that 75% of all captures were males. We found a significant inverse relationship between elevation and relative abundance of reproductive females. Relative abundance of reproductive females decreased as elevation increased. Reproductive females may be constrained from roosting and foraging in high-elevational habitats that impose thermoregulatory costs and decrease foraging efficiency. Failure to account for sex differences in distributional patterns along elevational gradients may significantly bias estimates of population size.

Floral visual signal increases reproductive success in a sexually deceptive orchid

PubMed Central

Streinzer, Martin; Paulus, Hannes F.; Spaethe, Johannes

2013-01-01

Sexually deceptive orchids mimic signals emitted by female insects in order to attract mate-searching males. Specific attraction of the targeted pollinator is achieved by sex pheromone mimicry, which constitutes the major attraction channel. In close vicinity of the flower, visual signals may enhance attraction, as was shown recently in the sexually deceptive orchid Ophrys heldreichii. Here, we conducted an in situ manipulation experiment in two populations of O. heldreichii on Crete to investigate whether the presence/absence of the conspicuous pink perianth affects reproductive success in two natural orchid populations. We estimated reproductive success of three treatment groups (with intact, removed and artificial perianth) throughout the flowering period as pollinaria removal (male reproductive success) and massulae deposition (female reproductive success). Reproductive success was significantly increased by the presence of a strong visual signal—the conspicuous perianth—in one study population, however, not in the second, most likely due to the low pollinator abundance in the latter population. This study provides further evidence that the coloured perianth in O. heldreichii is adaptive and thus adds to the olfactory signal to maximise pollinator attraction and reproductive success. PMID:23750181

Floral visual signal increases reproductive success in a sexually deceptive orchid.

PubMed

Rakosy, Demetra; Streinzer, Martin; Paulus, Hannes F; Spaethe, Johannes

2012-12-01

Sexually deceptive orchids mimic signals emitted by female insects in order to attract mate-searching males. Specific attraction of the targeted pollinator is achieved by sex pheromone mimicry, which constitutes the major attraction channel. In close vicinity of the flower, visual signals may enhance attraction, as was shown recently in the sexually deceptive orchid Ophrys heldreichii . Here, we conducted an in situ manipulation experiment in two populations of O. heldreichii on Crete to investigate whether the presence/absence of the conspicuous pink perianth affects reproductive success in two natural orchid populations. We estimated reproductive success of three treatment groups (with intact, removed and artificial perianth) throughout the flowering period as pollinaria removal (male reproductive success) and massulae deposition (female reproductive success). Reproductive success was significantly increased by the presence of a strong visual signal-the conspicuous perianth-in one study population, however, not in the second, most likely due to the low pollinator abundance in the latter population. This study provides further evidence that the coloured perianth in O. heldreichii is adaptive and thus adds to the olfactory signal to maximise pollinator attraction and reproductive success.

Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017.

PubMed

Tsuzuki, Shinya; Lee, Hyojung; Miura, Fuminari; Chan, Yat Hin; Jung, Sung-Mok; Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2017-11-01

Transmission potential and severity of pneumonic plague in Madagascar were assessed. Accounting for reporting delay, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.73. The case fatality risk was estimated as 5.5%. Expected numbers of exported cases from Madagascar were estimated across the world and all estimates were below 1 person from August to October, 2017.

Humans are not cooperative breeders but practice biocultural reproduction.

PubMed

Bogin, Barry; Bragg, Jared; Kuzawa, Christopher

2014-01-01

Alloparental care and feeding of young is often called "cooperative breeding" and humans are increasingly described as being a cooperative breeding species. To critically evaluate whether the human offspring care system is best grouped with that of other cooperative breeders. (1) Review of the human system of offspring care in the light of definitions of cooperative, communal and social breeding; (2) re-analysis of human lifetime reproductive effort. Human reproduction and offspring care are distinct from other species because alloparental behaviour is defined culturally rather than by genetic kinship alone. This system allows local flexibility in provisioning strategies and ensures that care and resources often flow between unrelated individuals. This review proposes the term "biocultural reproduction" to describe this unique human reproductive system. In a re-analysis of human life history data, it is estimated that the intense alloparenting typical of human societies lowers the lifetime reproductive effort of individual women by 14-29% compared to expectations based upon other mammals. Humans are not cooperative breeders as classically defined; one effect of the unique strategy of human biocultural reproduction is a lowering of human lifetime reproductive effort, which could help explain lifespan extension.

'This year I will not put her to work': the production/reproduction nexus in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Storeng, Katerini Tagmatarchi; Akoum, Mélanie Stephanie; Murray, Susan F

2013-04-01

Global advocacy campaigns increasingly highlight the negative impact of reproductive morbidity on economic productivity and development in order to justify donor investment in maternal health. Anthropological approaches nuance such narrow economic estimations of reproductive health. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork from Burkina Faso in West Africa, this paper analyses the dynamic, and sometimes contradictory, relationship between women's work and reproductive health in impoverished communities. Specifically, it examines the consequences of life-threatening 'near-miss' obstetric complications for women's work across domestic, agricultural and economic spheres over a four-year period. Such events provide a window onto the diverse ways in which production and reproduction are intimately linked within women's everyday lives. Reproduction and production entail sources of potential empowerment and enhancement, as well as potential threats, to health and well-being. In the aftermath of 'near-miss' events, the realms of reproduction and production sometimes jeopardise each other and at other times reinforce each other, while strength in one domain can compensate for weakness in the other. Women's experiences thus reveal how 'production' and 'reproduction' are mutually constituted, challenging the purely instrumental accounts of pregnancy-related 'productivity loss' that dominate current global health discourse.

Iteroparity in the variable environment of the salamander Ambystoma tigrinum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Church, D.R.; Bailey, L.L.; Wilbur, H.M.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.

2007-01-01

Simultaneous estimation of survival, reproduction, and movement is essential to understanding how species maximize lifetime reproduction in environments that vary across space and time. We conducted a four-year, capture–recapture study of three populations of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum) and used multistate mark–recapture statistical methods to estimate the manner in which movement, survival, and breeding probabilities vary under different environmental conditions across years and among populations and habitats. We inferred how individuals may mitigate risks of mortality and reproductive failure by deferring breeding or by moving among populations. Movement probabilities among populations were extremely low despite high spatiotemporal variation in reproductive success and survival, suggesting possible costs to movements among breeding ponds. Breeding probabilities varied between wet and dry years and according to whether or not breeding was attempted in the previous year. Estimates of survival in the nonbreeding, forest habitat varied among populations but were consistent across time. Survival in breeding ponds was generally high in years with average or high precipitation, except for males in an especially ephemeral pond. A drought year incurred severe survival costs in all ponds to animals that attempted breeding. Female salamanders appear to defer these episodic survival costs of breeding by choosing not to breed in years when the risk of adult mortality is high. Using stochastic simulations of survival and breeding under historical climate conditions, we found that an interaction between breeding probabilities and mortality limits the probability of multiple breeding attempts differently between the sexes and among populations.

[Study protocol on the effect of the economic crisis on mortality and reproductive health and health inequalities in Spain].

PubMed

Pérez, Glòria; Gotsens, Mercè; Palència, Laia; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Domínguez-Berjón, M Felicitas; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Puig, Vanessa; Bartoll, Xavier; Gandarillas, Ana; Martín, Unai; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Díez, Elia; Ruiz, Miguel; Esnaola, Santiago; Calvo, Montserrat; Sánchez, Pablo; Luque Fernández, Miguel Ángel; Borrell, Carme

The aim is to present the protocol of the two sub-studies on the effect of the economic crisis on mortality and reproductive health and health inequalities in Spain. Substudy 1: describe the evolution of mortality and reproductive health between 1990 and 2013 through a longitudinal ecological study in the Autonomous Communities. This study will identify changes caused by the economic crisis in trends or reproductive health and mortality indicators using panel data (17 Autonomous Communities per study year) and adjusting Poisson models with random effects variance. Substudy 2: analyse inequalities by socioeconomic deprivation in mortality and reproductive health in several areas of Spain. An ecological study analysing trends in the pre-crisis (1999-2003 and 2004-2008) and crisis (2009-2013) periods will be performed. Random effects models Besag York and Mollié will be adjusted to estimate mortality indicators softened in reproductive health and census tracts. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Redefining reproductive success in songbirds: Moving beyond the nest success paradigm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streby, Henry M.; Refsnider, Jeanine M.; Andersen, David E.

2014-01-01

One of the most commonly estimated parameters in studies of songbird ecology is reproductive success, as a measure of either individual fitness or population productivity. Traditionally, the “success” in reproductive success refers to whether, or how many, nestlings leave nests. Here, we advocate that “reproductive success” in songbirds be redefined as full-season productivity, or the number of young raised to independence from adult care in a breeding season. A growing body of evidence demonstrates interdependence between nest success and fledgling survival, and emphasizes that data from either life stage alone can produce misleading measures of individual fitness and population productivity. Nest success, therefore, is an insufficient measure of reproductive success, and songbird ecology needs to progress beyond this long-standing paradigm. Full-season productivity, an evolutionarily rational measure of reproductive success, provides the framework for appropriately addressing unresolved questions about the adaptive significance of many breeding behaviors and within which effective breeding-grounds conservation and management can be designed.

The impact of overstory density on reproduction establishment in the Missouri Ozarks: models for simulating regeneration stochastically

Treesearch

Lance A. Vickers; David R. Larsen; Daniel C. Dey; Benjamin O. Knapp; John M. Kabrick

2017-01-01

Predicting the effects of silvicultural choices on regeneration has been difficult with the tools available to foresters. In an effort to improve this, we developed a collection of reproduction establishment models based on stand development hypotheses and parameterized with empirical data for several species in the Missouri Ozarks. These models estimate third-year...

Evaluation of the Criollo breed Romosinuano as purebred and crossbred cows with Brahman and Angus in Florida. I. Reproduction and parturition

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objectives of this work were to compare reproduction and parturition traits of the Criollo breed Romosinuano as straightbred and crossbred cows with Angus and Brahman, to estimate heterosis and direct and maternal genetic breed effects, and to describe calf loss, cow removals from the project, t...

Reproductive outcomes in DDT applicators.

PubMed

Cocco, Pierluigi; Fadda, Domenica; Ibba, Antonio; Melis, Massimo; Tocco, Maria Giuseppina; Atzeri, Sergio; Avataneo, Giuseppe; Meloni, Michele; Monni, Filippo; Flore, Costantino

2005-05-01

To explore reproductive outcomes in relation to occupational exposure to DDT. We inquired into the reproductive history, including total number of children, sex distribution in the offspring, time-to-pregnancy, and number of spontaneous abortions and stillbirths, of the spouses of 105 men first exposed to DDT in a 1946-1950 anti-malarial campaign in Sardinia, Italy. The time-to-pregnancy in months at the first successful conception was estimated from population Registrars. Cumulative DDT exposure during the anti-malarial campaign was retrospectively estimated. The stillbirth rate was elevated and the male/female ratio in the offspring was reversed among DDT-exposed workers, and particularly among DDT applicators, compared to the unexposed subjects. Among DDT applicators, the stillbirth rate increased and the male/female ratio decreased by the tertile of cumulative DDT exposure. The fecundity ratio among spouses of DDT applicators was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.41,1.21) compared to the unexposed. The average number of children and abortion rate were unaffected by DDT exposure. The low statistical power of our study does not allow definitive conclusions. However, the results prompt further in-depth research into adverse reproductive outcomes and reduced fertility among men heavily exposed to DDT.

Divergent selection on, but no genetic conflict over, female and male timing and rate of reproduction in a human population

PubMed Central

Bolund, Elisabeth; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Pettay, Jenni E.; Lummaa, Virpi

2013-01-01

The sexes often have different phenotypic optima for important life-history traits, and because of a largely shared genome this can lead to a conflict over trait expression. In mammals, the obligate costs of reproduction are higher for females, making reproductive timing and rate especially liable to conflict between the sexes. While studies from wild vertebrates support such sexual conflict, it remains unexplored in humans. We used a pedigreed human population from preindustrial Finland to estimate sexual conflict over age at first and last reproduction, reproductive lifespan and reproductive rate. We found that the phenotypic selection gradients differed between the sexes. We next established significant heritabilities in both sexes for all traits. All traits, except reproductive rate, showed strongly positive intersexual genetic correlations and were strongly genetically correlated with fitness in both sexes. Moreover, the genetic correlations with fitness were almost identical in men and women. For reproductive rate, the intersexual correlation and the correlation with fitness were weaker but again similar between the sexes. Thus, in this population, an apparent sexual conflict at the phenotypic level did not reflect an underlying genetic conflict over the studied reproductive traits. These findings emphasize the need for incorporating genetic perspectives into studies of human life-history evolution. PMID:24107531

Selection bias in studies of human reproduction-longevity trade-offs.

PubMed

Helle, Samuli

2017-12-13

A shorter lifespan as a potential cost of high reproductive effort in humans has intrigued researchers for more than a century. However, the results have been inconclusive so far and despite strong theoretical expectations we do not currently have compelling evidence for the longevity costs of reproduction. Using Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown here that a common practice in human reproduction-longevity studies using historical data (the most relevant data sources for this question), the omission of women who died prior to menopausal age from the analysis, results in severe underestimation of the potential underlying trade-off between reproduction and lifespan. In other words, assuming that such a trade-off is expressed also during reproductive years, the strength of the trade-off between reproduction and lifespan is progressively weakened when women dying during reproductive ages are sequentially and non-randomly excluded from the analysis. In cases of small sample sizes (e.g. few hundreds of observations), this selection bias by reducing statistical power may even partly explain the null results commonly found in this field. Future studies in this field should thus apply statistical approaches that account for or avoid selection bias in order to recover reliable effect size estimates between reproduction and longevity. © 2017 The Author(s).

Divergent selection on, but no genetic conflict over, female and male timing and rate of reproduction in a human population.

PubMed

Bolund, Elisabeth; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Pettay, Jenni E; Lummaa, Virpi

2013-12-07

The sexes often have different phenotypic optima for important life-history traits, and because of a largely shared genome this can lead to a conflict over trait expression. In mammals, the obligate costs of reproduction are higher for females, making reproductive timing and rate especially liable to conflict between the sexes. While studies from wild vertebrates support such sexual conflict, it remains unexplored in humans. We used a pedigreed human population from preindustrial Finland to estimate sexual conflict over age at first and last reproduction, reproductive lifespan and reproductive rate. We found that the phenotypic selection gradients differed between the sexes. We next established significant heritabilities in both sexes for all traits. All traits, except reproductive rate, showed strongly positive intersexual genetic correlations and were strongly genetically correlated with fitness in both sexes. Moreover, the genetic correlations with fitness were almost identical in men and women. For reproductive rate, the intersexual correlation and the correlation with fitness were weaker but again similar between the sexes. Thus, in this population, an apparent sexual conflict at the phenotypic level did not reflect an underlying genetic conflict over the studied reproductive traits. These findings emphasize the need for incorporating genetic perspectives into studies of human life-history evolution.

Is biomass a reliable estimate of plant fitness?1

PubMed Central

Younginger, Brett S.; Sirová, Dagmara; Cruzan, Mitchell B.; Ballhorn, Daniel J.

2017-01-01

The measurement of fitness is critical to biological research. Although the determination of fitness for some organisms may be relatively straightforward under controlled conditions, it is often a difficult or nearly impossible task in nature. Plants are no exception. The potential for long-distance pollen dispersal, likelihood of multiple reproductive events per inflorescence, varying degrees of reproductive growth in perennials, and asexual reproduction all confound accurate fitness measurements. For these reasons, biomass is frequently used as a proxy for plant fitness. However, the suitability of indirect fitness measurements such as plant size is rarely evaluated. This review outlines the important associations between plant performance, fecundity, and fitness. We make a case for the reliability of biomass as an estimate of fitness when comparing conspecifics of the same age class. We reviewed 170 studies on plant fitness and discuss the metrics commonly employed for fitness estimations. We find that biomass or growth rate are frequently used and often positively associated with fecundity, which in turn suggests greater overall fitness. Our results support the utility of biomass as an appropriate surrogate for fitness under many circumstances, and suggest that additional fitness measures should be reported along with biomass or growth rate whenever possible. PMID:28224055

Reproductive effort in invasive and non-invasive Rubus.

PubMed

McDowell, Susan C; Turner, David P

2002-10-01

We quantified the physiological costs and the total amount of resources allocated to reproduction in two closely related species of Rubus, one of which is invasive. These two species share several morphological and life-history characteristics and grow together in the Pacific Northwestern United States. Reproductive effort was manipulated in canes of both species by removing flower buds. The non-invasive species, R. ursinus, exhibited significantly greater water stress in the reproductive canes, as indicated by lower leaf water potential (Ψ) and reduced stomatal conductance (g s ). This species also showed a reduction in leaf nitrogen concentration ([N]) associated with reproduction. Combined, these factors led to reduced photosynthesis (A) on a diurnal basis, lower water-use efficiency as inferred from δ 13 C, and reduced photosynthetic capacity. All of these effects were more pronounced during the fruiting stage than in the flowering stage. The invasive species, R. discolor, showed no changes in water stress, [N], δ 13 C, or A associated with reproduction. A model was used to estimate total gross photosynthesis (A gross ) for reproductive and non-reproductive canes of both species over cane lifetime. Reproduction was associated with a greater decline in A gross for the non-invasive R. ursinus than for the invasive R. discolor. Although R. discolor allocated more resources directly to flowers and fruit than R. ursinus, the invasive species had significantly lower reproductive effort, or total amount of resources diverted from vegetative activity to reproduction, than the non-invasive species. By minimizing the reduction of photosynthesis associated with reproduction, this invasive species may be able to minimize the trade-offs commonly associated with reproduction.

An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2.

PubMed

Kapitanov, Georgi; Alvey, Christina; Vogt-Geisse, Katia; Feng, Zhilan

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

The links between hypertrophy, reproductive potential and longevity in the Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast.

PubMed

Molon, Mateusz; Zadrag-Tecza, Renata

2016-01-01

The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae has long been used as a model organism for studying the basic mechanisms of aging. However, the main problem with the use of this unicellular fungus is the unit of "longevity". For all organisms, lifespan is expressed in units of time, while in the case of yeast it is defined by the number of daughter cells produced. Additionally, in yeast the phenotypic effects of mutations often show a clear dependence on the genetic background, suggesting the need for an analysis of strains representing different genetic backgrounds. Our results confirm the data presented in earlier papers that the reproductive potential is strongly associated with an increase in cell volume per generation. An excessive cell volume results in the loss of reproductive capacity. These data clearly support the hypertrophy hypothesis. The time of life of all analysed mutants, with the exception of sch9D, is the same as in the case of the wild-type strain. Interestingly, the 121% increase of the fob1D mutant's reproductive potential compared to the sfp1D mutant does not result in prolongation of the mutant's time of life (total lifespan).

Marital status and abortion among young women in Rupandehi, Nepal.

PubMed

Andersen, Kathryn L; Khanal, Ram Chandra; Teixeira, Alexandra; Neupane, Shailes; Sharma, Sharad; Acre, Valerie N; Gallo, Maria F

2015-01-01

Despite liberalization of the Nepal abortion law, young women continue to experience barriers to safe abortion services. We hypothesize that marital status may differentially impact such barriers, given the societal context of Nepal. We evaluated differences in reproductive knowledge and attitudes by marital status with a probability-based, cross-sectional survey of young women in Rupandehi district, Nepal. Participants (N = 600) were surveyed in 2012 on demographics, romantic experiences, media habits, reproductive information, and abortion knowledge and attitudes. We used logistic regression to assess differences by marital status, controlling for age. Participants, who comprised never-married (54%) and ever-married women (45%), reported good access to basic reproductive health and abortion information. Social desirability bias might have prevented reporting of premarital romantic and sexual activity given that participants reported more premarital activities for their friends than for themselves. Only 45% knew that abortion was legal, and fewer ever-married women were aware of abortion legality. Never-married women expected more negative responses from having an abortion than ever-married women. Findings highlight the need for providing sexual and reproductive health care information and services to young women regardless of marital status.

The Productivity and Natural Increase of Swamp Buffalo in District Malang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiarto, A.; Ciptadi, G.

2018-02-01

The purpose of this research was to collect the basic information needed to develop a sustainable breeding program, which includes the potential for production and reproduction of buffaloes. This research was conducted on swamp buffalo in Malang Regency East Java. The research method used was survey method. Primary data was obtained from direct observation on 323 tails owned by 98 breeders. Variables observed were population growth and reproductive performance. The data obtained were analyzed descriptively. The result showed that the initial population study of swamp Buffaloes in Malang as many as 1155 with male and female ratio 1: 2. The ratios of male and female swamp Buffalo 20 percent male and 80 percent female. Overall, the buffalo reproduction performance was still low. Service per conception 2.06 ± 0.88; Anestrus Postpartum 7.46 ± 3.83 months; calving interval distance 17.82 ± 4.86 months; 20.43 % birth rate and 4.33% mortality rate of Natural Increase (NI) population was about 16,1%. In conclusion, the value of NI of swamp Buffalo in Malang Regency is still low. To increase buffalo productivity, buffalo breeding program is continuously based on reproduction control.

Improving education and resources for health care providers.

PubMed Central

Paul, M; Welch, L

1993-01-01

Workers and citizens are turning increasingly to the health care system for information about occupational and environmental reproductive hazards, yet most primary care providers and specialists know little about the effects of occupational/environmental toxicants on the reproductive system or how to evaluate and manage patients at potential risk. Although it is unrealistic to expect all clinicians to become experts in this area, practitioners should know how to take a basic screening history, identify patients at potential risk, and make appropriate referrals. At present, occupational and environmental health issues are not well integrated into health professional education in the United States, and clinical information and referral resources pertaining to reproductive hazards are inadequate. In addressing these problems, the conference "Working Group on Health Provider Education and Resources" made several recommendations that are detailed in this report. Short-term goals include enhancement of existing expertise and resources at a regional level and better integration of information on occupational/environmental reproductive hazards into curricula, meetings, and publications of medical and nursing organizations. Longer term goals include development of a comprehensive, single-access information and referral system for clinicians and integration of occupational and environmental medicine into formal health professional education curricula at all levels. PMID:8243391

Developmental Programming and Endocrine Disruptor Effects on Reproductive Neuroendocrine Systems

PubMed Central

Gore, Andrea C.

2009-01-01

The ability of a species to reproduce successfully requires the careful orchestration of developmental processes during critical time points, particularly the late embryonic and early postnatal periods. This article begins with a brief presentation of the evidence for how gonadal steroid hormones exert these imprinting effects upon the morphology of sexually differentiated hypothalamic brain regions, the mechanisms underlying these effects, and their implications in adulthood. Then, I review the evidence that aberrant exposure to hormonally-active substances such as exogenous endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), may result in improper hypothalamic programming, thereby decreasing reproductive success in adulthood. The field of endocrine disruption has shed new light on the discipline of basic reproductive neuroendocrinology through studies on how early life exposures to EDCs may alter gene expression via non-genomic, epigenetic mechanisms, including DNA methylation and histone acetylation. Importantly, these effects may be transmitted to future generations if the germline is affected via transgenerational, epigenetic actions. By understanding the mechanisms by which natural hormones and xenobiotics affect reproductive neuroendocrine systems, we will gain a better understanding of normal developmental processes, as well as to develop the potential ability to intervene when development is disrupted. PMID:18394690

11 years of tracking aid to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health: estimates and analysis for 2003-13 from the Countdown to 2015.

PubMed

Grollman, Christopher; Arregoces, Leonardo; Martínez-Álvarez, Melisa; Pitt, Catherine; Mills, Anne; Borghi, Josephine

2017-01-01

Tracking aid flows helps to hold donors accountable and to compare the allocation of resources in relation to health need. With the use of data reported by donors in 2015, we provided estimates of official development assistance and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (collectively termed ODA+) to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for 2013 and complete trends in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health support for the period 2003-13. We coded and analysed financial disbursements to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health to all recipient countries from all donors reporting to the creditor reporting system database for the year 2013. We also revisited disbursement records for the years 2003-08 and coded disbursements relating to reproductive and sexual health activities resulting in the Countdown dataset for 2003-13. We matched this dataset to the 2015 creditor reporting system dataset and coded any unmatched creditor reporting system records. We analysed trends in ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for the period 2003-13, trends in donor contributions, disbursements to recipient countries, and targeting to need. Total ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health reached nearly US$14 billion in 2013, of which 48% supported child health ($6·8 billion), 34% supported reproductive and sexual health ($4·7 billion), and 18% maternal and newborn health ($2·5 billion). ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health increased by 225% in real terms over the period 2003-13. Child health received the most substantial increase in funding since 2003 (286%), followed by reproductive and sexual health (194%), and maternal and newborn health (164%). In 2013, bilateral donors disbursed 59% of all ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health, followed by global health initiatives (23%), and multilateral agencies (13%). Targeting of ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health to countries with the greatest health need seems to have improved over time. The increase in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health funding over the period 2003-13 is encouraging. Further increases in funding will be needed to accelerate maternal mortality reduction while keeping a high level of investment in sexual and reproductive health and in child health. Subgrant OPP1058954 from the US Fund for UNICEF under their Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival Grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Time-lapse microscopy and image analysis in basic and clinical embryo development research.

PubMed

Wong, C; Chen, A A; Behr, B; Shen, S

2013-02-01

Mammalian preimplantation embryo development is a complex process in which the exact timing and sequence of events are as essential as the accurate execution of the events themselves. Time-lapse microscopy (TLM) is an ideal tool to study this process since the ability to capture images over time provides a combination of morphological, dynamic and quantitative information about developmental events. Here, we systematically review the application of TLM in basic and clinical embryo research. We identified all relevant preimplantation embryo TLM studies published in English up to May 2012 using PubMed and Google Scholar. We then analysed the technical challenges involved in embryo TLM studies and how these challenges may be overcome with technological innovations. Finally, we reviewed the different types of TLM embryo studies, with a special focus on how TLM can benefit clinical assisted reproduction. Although new parameters predictive of embryo development potential may be discovered and used clinically to potentially increase the success rate of IVF, adopting TLM to routine clinical practice will require innovations in both optics and image analysis. Combined with such innovations, TLM may provide embryologists and clinicians with an important tool for making critical decisions in assisted reproduction. In this review, we perform a literature search of all published early embryo development studies that used time-lapse microscopy (TLM). From the literature, we discuss the benefits of TLM over traditional time-point analysis, as well as the technical difficulties and solutions involved in implementing TLM for embryo studies. We further discuss research that has successfully derived non-invasive markers that may increase the success rate of assisted reproductive technologies, primarily IVF. Most notably, we extend our discussion to highlight important considerations for the practical use of TLM in research and clinical settings. Copyright © 2012 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Iron-Binding E3 Ligase Mediates Iron Response in Plants by Targeting Basic Helix-Loop-Helix Transcription Factors1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Selote, Devarshi; Samira, Rozalynne; Matthiadis, Anna; Gillikin, Jeffrey W.; Long, Terri A.

2015-01-01

Iron uptake and metabolism are tightly regulated in both plants and animals. In Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), BRUTUS (BTS), which contains three hemerythrin (HHE) domains and a Really Interesting New Gene (RING) domain, interacts with basic helix-loop-helix transcription factors that are capable of forming heterodimers with POPEYE (PYE), a positive regulator of the iron deficiency response. BTS has been shown to have E3 ligase capacity and to play a role in root growth, rhizosphere acidification, and iron reductase activity in response to iron deprivation. To further characterize the function of this protein, we examined the expression pattern of recombinant ProBTS::β-GLUCURONIDASE and found that it is expressed in developing embryos and other reproductive tissues, corresponding with its apparent role in reproductive growth and development. Our findings also indicate that the interactions between BTS and PYE-like (PYEL) basic helix-loop-helix transcription factors occur within the nucleus and are dependent on the presence of the RING domain. We provide evidence that BTS facilitates 26S proteasome-mediated degradation of PYEL proteins in the absence of iron. We also determined that, upon binding iron at the HHE domains, BTS is destabilized and that this destabilization relies on specific residues within the HHE domains. This study reveals an important and unique mechanism for plant iron homeostasis whereby an E3 ubiquitin ligase may posttranslationally control components of the transcriptional regulatory network involved in the iron deficiency response. PMID:25452667

Timing of breeding in variable environments: tropical birds as model systems.

PubMed

Hau, M

2001-09-01

Animals need to adjust reproductive decisions to environmental seasonality. In contrast to species from the well-studied temperate zones, little is known for tropical birds about the environmental cues that stimulate reproductive activity and the physiological mechanisms that regulate reproduction. I am investigating the environmental and endocrine mechanisms that underlie the timing of reproduction in spotted antbirds from the near-equatorial Panamanian rainforest and in small ground finches from the equatorial arid Galápagos islands. Spotted antbirds live in a fairly predictable seasonal environment and show regular changes in gonad sizes and some reproductive hormones. Despite the small annual variation in photoperiod close to the equator, these birds can measure slight photoperiodic increases and use it to initiate reproductive activity. Spotted antbirds also respond to seasonal changes in food availability, which allows them to flexibly adjust gonad growth to environmental conditions. Testosterone is involved in regulating song and aggressive behavior in these year-round territorial birds, although it can remain at low plasma levels throughout the year. In contrast, small ground finches exposed to a rather unpredictable climate on Galápagos appear to grow their gonads whenever heavy rains fall and have regressed gonads during other times of the year. The lack of a physiological preparation for the breeding season and their response to short-term cues related to rainfall indicate a striking flexibility in the regulation of breeding in small ground finches. I suggest that tropical birds can serve as model systems to study the physiological adaptations to different environments. Unraveling the neuroendocrine mechanisms behind the flexibility in reproductive timing will clarify whether differences found between temperate and tropical birds represent variations of the same basic mechanism or instead reflect a fundamental divergence in physiological control systems. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

Manipulations of the reproductive system of fishes by means of exogenous chemicals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patino, R.

1997-01-01

Environmental control of reproductive activity of captive fish is feasible (or potentially feasible) but, with few exceptions, is currently impractical for most species. Therefore, chemical methods of manipulating reproductive activity continue to be widely used in fish production operations worldwide. However, the control of fish reproduction in captivity cannot be exercised without regard to adequate environmental conditions, which can differ markedly for different species. This review provides a synopsis of relevant aspects of fish reproductive physiology and addresses current and promising future chemical methods of sex control, gonadal recrudescence, and spawning. Most research on the control of reproduction in fishes has focused on female physiology because ovarian development and maturation are easily disturbed by environmental stressors. Control of sex ratios by steroid treatment has become a well-established technique for several fish species, but the technique continues to be problematic in some cases. Final gonadal growth and spawning usually can be achieved by implant treatment with gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogs (GnRHa), which in some species have to be applied in combination with dopamine antagonists to enhance responsiveness to GnRHa. However, efforts to accelerate gonadal recrudescence and maturational competence by chemical means have yielded mixed results, reflecting a relative lack of understanding of the basic physiological and biochemic mechanisms controlling these processes. The potential benefits of using reproductive pheromone, to manipulate gonadal development and spawning has been demonstrated in a few species, but further research is needed to determine whether this technique is applicable to fish culture. Because a reliable supply of young fish is critical for the expansion and diversification of fish culture operations, the use of chemicals in combination with adequate environmental conditions to contain gametogenesis and spawning in fishes will continue to be an important tool for the fish culture.

A resource-based version of the argument that cloning is an affront to human dignity.

PubMed

McDougall, R

2008-04-01

The claim that human reproductive cloning constitutes an affront to human dignity became a familiar one in 1997 as policymakers and bioethicists responded to the announcement of the birth of Dolly the sheep. Various versions of the argument that reproductive cloning is an affront to human dignity have been made, most focusing on the dignity of the child produced by cloning. However, these arguments tend to be unpersuasive and strongly criticised in the bioethical literature. In this paper I put forward a different argument that reproductive cloning is an affront to human dignity, one that looks beyond the dignity of the child produced. I suggest that allocating funds to such a pursuit can affront human dignity by diverting resources away from those existing people who lack sufficient health to enable them to exercise basic rights and liberties. This version of the argument posits cloning as an affront to human dignity in particular circumstances, rather than claiming the technology as intrinsically inconsistent with human dignity.

Chlamydia trachomatis and Genital Mycoplasmas: Pathogens with an Impact on Human Reproductive Health

PubMed Central

Ljubin-Sternak, Sunčanica; Meštrović, Tomislav

2014-01-01

The most prevalent, curable sexually important diseases are those caused by Chlamydia trachomatis (C. trachomatis) and genital mycoplasmas. An important characteristic of these infections is their ability to cause long-term sequels in upper genital tract, thus potentially affecting the reproductive health in both sexes. Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), tubal factor infertility (TFI), and ectopic pregnancy (EP) are well documented complications of C. trachomatis infection in women. The role of genital mycoplasmas in development of PID, TFI, and EP requires further evaluation, but growing evidence supports a significant role for these in the pathogenesis of chorioamnionitis, premature membrane rupture, and preterm labor in pregnant woman. Both C. trachomatis and genital mycoplasmas can affect the quality of sperm and possibly influence the fertility of men. For the purpose of this paper, basic, epidemiologic, clinical, therapeutic, and public health issue of these infections were reviewed and discussed, focusing on their impact on human reproductive health. PMID:25614838

Reproductive Parasitism: Maternally Inherited Symbionts in a Biparental World

PubMed Central

Hurst, Gregory D.D.; Frost, Crystal L.

2015-01-01

Most species of insect, and many other plants and animals, carry maternally heritable microorganisms—viruses, bacteria, unicellular eukaryotes, and fungi that pass from a female host to her progeny. Maternal inheritance establishes a correlation between the fitness of symbiont and host female, which can select for the symbiont to contribute to host fitness. Nevertheless, its lack of transmission through male hosts places the symbiont in conflict with biparentally inherited nuclear genes. In this review, we first examine how this conflict is manifest in selection to promote the production and survival of infected female hosts and gametes. We then examine how the distorted population sex ratios that they produce may affect host reproductive ecology, and thus the intensity of other conflicts associated with sexual reproduction. Finally, we examine evolved host responses to symbiont manipulation. We argue that the unusual intensity of symbiont–host conflict generates extreme selection pressures that can drive changes in sex-determination systems, the basic pathway through which males and females are constructed. PMID:25934011

Human embryo cloning prohibited in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Liu, Athena

2005-12-01

Since the birth of Dolly (the cloned sheep) in 1997, debates have arisen on the ethical and legal questions of cloning-for-biomedical-research (more commonly termed "therapeutic cloning") and of reproductive cloning using human gametes. Hong Kong enacted the Human Reproductive Technology Ordinance (Cap 561) in 2000. Section 15(1)(e) of this Ordinance prohibits the "replacing of the nucleus of a cell of an embryo with a nucleus taken from any other cell," i.e., nucleus substitution. Section 15(1)(f) prohibits the cloning of any embryo. The scope of the latter, therefore, is arguably the widest, prohibiting all cloning techniques such as cell nucleus replacement, embryo splitting, parthenogenesis, and cloning using stem cell lines. Although the Human Reproductive Technology Ordinance is not yet fully operative, this article examines how these prohibitions may adversely impact on basic research and the vision of the Hong Kong scientific community. It concludes that in light of recent scientific developments, it is time to review if the law offers a coherent set of policies in this area.

A milestone in GO-NGO collaboration.

PubMed

1997-11-01

New avenues in governmental/nongovernmental organization cooperation are being explored in the Japan International Cooperation Agency's reproductive health project being implemented in eight districts of the Nghe An Province of Viet Nam during the period October 1997 to May 2000. The goals of this project are to halve the maternal and infant mortality rate, reduce incidence of reproductive tract infection, increase contraceptive prevalence, and reduce the abortion rate. The reproductive health project is using a community-based, needs-based approach and has involved affected women in each stage of planning and implementation. The project covers 244 of the province's 464 communes, and, to achieve its goal of improving the safety of delivery, involves retraining of midwives and assistant physicians, provision of basic medical equipment, renovation of the commune health centers, and provision of essential drugs and contraceptives. Community members must renovate their health facilities and help create a safe environment for deliveries. Sustainability for the project will be enhanced by coordination of various forms of available support from other international agencies.

Human rights versus legal control over women's reproductive self-determination.

PubMed

Uberoi, Diya; de Bruyn, Maria

2013-06-14

States have a duty under international human rights law to protect people's health. Nonetheless, while some health-related policies and laws protect basic human rights, others violate fundamental rights when they criminalize, prohibit, and restrict access to necessary health services. For example, laws and regulations related to protection of life from conception, contraception, actions of pregnant women, and abortion can harm women and place women and health care providers in jeopardy of legal penalization. Given the adverse consequences of punitive and restrictive laws related to pregnancy, advocates, civil society groups, human rights groups, and government institutions must work together to promote, protect, and fulfill women's fundamental reproductive rights. Copyright © 2013 Uberoi and de Bruyn. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Transmission Heterogeneity and Autoinoculation in a Multisite Infection Model of HPV

PubMed Central

Brouwer, Andrew F.; Meza, Rafael; Eisenberg, Marisa C.

2015-01-01

The human papillomavirus (HPV) is sexually transmitted and can infect oral, genital, and anal sites in the human epithelium. Here, we develop a multisite transmission model that includes autoinoculation, to study HPV and other multisite diseases. Under a homogeneous-contacts assumption, we analyze the basic reproduction number R0, as well as type and target reproduction numbers, for a two-site model. In particular, we find that R0 occupies a space between taking the maximum of next generation matrix terms for same site transmission and taking the geometric average of cross-site transmission terms in such a way that heterogeneity in the same-site transmission rates increases R0 while heterogeneity in the cross-site transmission decreases it. Additionally, autoinoculation adds considerable complexity to the form of R0. We extend this analysis to a heterosexual population, which additionally yields dynamics analogous to those of vector–host models. We also examine how these issues of heterogeneity may affect disease control, using type and target reproduction numbers. PMID:26518265

The Effect of Latitudinal Variation on Shrimp Reproductive Strategies.

PubMed

van de Kerk, Madelon; Jones Littles, Chanda; Saucedo, Omar; Lorenzen, Kai

2016-01-01

Reproductive strategies comprise the timing and frequency of reproductive events and the number of offspring per reproductive event, depending on factors such as climate conditions. Therefore, species that exhibit plasticity in the allocation of reproductive effort can alter their behavior in response to climate change. Studying how the reproductive strategy of species varies along the latitudinal gradient can help us understand and predict how they will respond to climate change. We investigated the effects of the temporal allocation of reproductive effort on the population size of brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) along a latitudinal gradient. Multiple shrimp species exhibit variation in their reproductive strategies, and given the economic importance of brown shrimp to the commercial fishing sector of the Unites States, changes in the timing of their reproduction could have significant economic and social consequences. We used a stage-based, density-dependent matrix population model tailored to the life history of brown shrimp. Shrimp growth rates and environmental carrying capacity were varied based on the seasonal climate conditions at different latitudes, and we estimated the population size at equilibrium. The length of the growing season increased with decreasing latitude and the reproductive strategy leading to the highest population size changed from one annual birth pulse with high reproductive output to continuous low-output reproduction. Hence, our model confirms the classical paradigm of continuous reproduction at low latitudes, with increased seasonality of the breeding period towards the poles. Our results also demonstrate the potential for variation in climate to affect the optimal reproductive strategy for achieving maximum population sizes. Certainly, understanding these dynamics may inform more comprehensive management strategies for commercially important species like brown shrimp.

"Clean, green and ethical" animal production. Case study: reproductive efficiency in small ruminants.

PubMed

Martin, Graeme B; Kadokawa, Hiroya

2006-02-01

In response to changes in society and thus the marketplace, we need a vision for the future of our animal industries, including both on-farm and off-farm activities, that is "clean, green and ethical". Using small ruminants as a case study, we describe three "clean, green and ethical" strategies that farmers could use to improve reproductive performance. The first allows control of the timing of reproductive events by using socio-sexual signals (the "male effect") to induce synchronised ovulation in females. The second strategy, "focus feeding", is based on using short periods of nutritional supplements that are precisely timed and specifically designed for each event in the reproductive process (eg, gamete production, embryo survival, fetal programming, colostrum production). The third strategy aims to maximize offspring survival by a combination of management, nutrition and genetic selection for behaviour (temperament). All of these approaches involve non-pharmacological manipulation of the endogenous control systems of the animals and complement the detailed information from ultrasound that is now becoming available. Importantly, these approaches all have a solid foundation in reproductive biology. In several cases, they are currently used in commercial practice, but there is still room for improvement through both basic and applied research. Ultimately, these "clean, green and ethical" tools can be cost-effective, increase productivity and, at the same time, greatly improve the image of meat and milk industries in society and the marketplace.

Sexual reproduction of the Hawaiian black coral Antipathes griggi (Cnidaria: Antipatharia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, D.; Waller, R. G.; Montgomery, A. D.; Kelley, C. D.; Toonen, R. J.

2012-09-01

The Hawaiian black coral fishery has maintained steady catch levels for over 50 years. However, recent declines in the biomass of commercially valuable Hawaiian black corals question whether regulations need to be redefined for sustainable harvesting. Fishery management efforts are complicated by the limited information on the basic life history and reproduction of black corals. To address this knowledge gap, we used histological techniques to investigate sexual reproductive processes within Antipathes griggi, the dominant species targeted by the fishery. Our results indicate that A. griggi is likely gonochoric with a 1:1 sex ratio and has an annual reproductive cycle. Furthermore, the percentage of polyps containing gametes dropped continuously throughout the reproductive season, indicating that spawning occurs in successive events with greatest intensity between November and December. Current fishing regulations prohibit harvesting of colonies <90 cm in height in state waters, and colonies <120 cm in height in federal waters. This study indicates that ~80% meeting the state harvesting limit, and ~90% of colonies meeting the federal limit, are sexually mature. Therefore, increasing these minimum size harvesting limits would ensure that more colonies can reproduce before being exposed to fishing mortality. Although A. griggi can be found to depths of 100 m, it is rare below the 75 m depth limit at which commercial harvest occurs in Hawai`i. Thus, the supposed depth refuge from harvest does not really exist.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Transmission parameters estimated for Salmonella typhimurium in swine using susceptible-infectious-resistant models and a Bayesian approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Transmission models can aid understanding of disease dynamics and are useful in testing the efficiency of control measures. The aim of this study was to formulate an appropriate stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Resistant/Carrier (SIR) model for Salmonella Typhimurium in pigs and thus estimate the transmission parameters between states. Results The transmission parameters were estimated using data from a longitudinal study of three Danish farrow-to-finish pig herds known to be infected. A Bayesian model framework was proposed, which comprised Binomial components for the transition from susceptible to infectious and from infectious to carrier; and a Poisson component for carrier to infectious. Cohort random effects were incorporated into these models to allow for unobserved cohort-specific variables as well as unobserved sources of transmission, thus enabling a more realistic estimation of the transmission parameters. In the case of the transition from susceptible to infectious, the cohort random effects were also time varying. The number of infectious pigs not detected by the parallel testing was treated as unknown, and the probability of non-detection was estimated using information about the sensitivity and specificity of the bacteriological and serological tests. The estimate of the transmission rate from susceptible to infectious was 0.33 [0.06, 1.52], from infectious to carrier was 0.18 [0.14, 0.23] and from carrier to infectious was 0.01 [0.0001, 0.04]. The estimate for the basic reproduction ration (R 0 ) was 1.91 [0.78, 5.24]. The probability of non-detection was estimated to be 0.18 [0.12, 0.25]. Conclusions The proposed framework for stochastic SIR models was successfully implemented to estimate transmission rate parameters for Salmonella Typhimurium in swine field data. R 0 was 1.91, implying that there was dissemination of the infection within pigs of the same cohort. There was significant temporal-cohort variability, especially at the susceptible to infectious stage. The model adequately fitted the data, allowing for both observed and unobserved sources of uncertainty (cohort effects, diagnostic test sensitivity), so leading to more reliable estimates of transmission parameters. PMID:24774444

Japan. Human cloning ban allows some research.

PubMed

Normile, D

2000-12-08

TOKYO--Japanese legislators last week approved a ban on human cloning that leaves room for the use of certain techniques in basic research. The action comes at the same time officials in two other countries--China and France--aired similar proposals that would prohibit so-called reproductive cloning while recognizing the possible importance of the technology in combating disease and improving human health.

Basic imaging in congenital heart disease. 3rd Ed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swischuk, L.E.; Sapire, D.W.

1986-01-01

The book retains its previous format with chapters on embryology, plain film interpretation, classification of pulmonary vascular patterns, cardiac malpositions and vascular anomalies, and illustrative cases. The book is organized with an abundance of illustrative figures, diagrams, and image reproductions. These include plain chest radiographs, angiograms, echocardiograms, and MR images. The authors present the pathophysiology and imaging of congenital heart lesions.

ASRM standard embryo transfer protocol template: a committee opinion.

PubMed

Penzias, Alan; Bendikson, Kristin; Butts, Samantha; Coutifaris, Christos; Falcone, Tommaso; Fossum, Gregory; Gitlin, Susan; Gracia, Clarisa; Hansen, Karl; Mersereau, Jennifer; Odem, Randall; Rebar, Robert; Reindollar, Richard; Rosen, Mitchell; Sandlow, Jay; Vernon, Michael

2017-04-01

Standardization improves performance and safety. A template for standardizing the embryo transfer procedure is presented here with 12 basic steps supported by published scientific literature and a survey of common practice of SART programs; it can be used by ART practices to model their own standard protocol. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mammals of the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cothran, E.G.; Smith, M.H.; Wolff, J.O.

1991-12-31

This book is designed to be used as a field guide, reference book, bibliography, and introduction to the basic biology and ecology of the 54 mammal species that currently or potentially exist on or near the Savannah River Site (SRS). For 50 of these species, we present basic descriptions, distinguishing morphological features, distribution and habitat preferences, food habits, reproductive biology, social behavior, ecological relationships with other species, and economic importance to man. For those species that have been studied on the SRS, we summarize the results of these studies. Keys and illustrations are provided for whole body and skull identification.more » A selected glossary defines technical terminology. Illustrations of tracks of the more common larger mammals will assist in field identifications. We also summarize the results of two major long-term SRS studies, ``The Forbearer Census`` and ``White-tailed Deer Studies``. A cross-indexed list of over 300 SRS publications on mammals classifies each publication by 23 categories such as habitat, reproduction, genetics, etc., and also for each mammal species. The 149 Master`s theses and Ph.D. dissertations that have been conducted at the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory are provided as additional references.« less

Mammals of the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cothran, E.G.; Smith, M.H.; Wolff, J.O.

1991-01-01

This book is designed to be used as a field guide, reference book, bibliography, and introduction to the basic biology and ecology of the 54 mammal species that currently or potentially exist on or near the Savannah River Site (SRS). For 50 of these species, we present basic descriptions, distinguishing morphological features, distribution and habitat preferences, food habits, reproductive biology, social behavior, ecological relationships with other species, and economic importance to man. For those species that have been studied on the SRS, we summarize the results of these studies. Keys and illustrations are provided for whole body and skull identification.more » A selected glossary defines technical terminology. Illustrations of tracks of the more common larger mammals will assist in field identifications. We also summarize the results of two major long-term SRS studies, The Forbearer Census'' and White-tailed Deer Studies''. A cross-indexed list of over 300 SRS publications on mammals classifies each publication by 23 categories such as habitat, reproduction, genetics, etc., and also for each mammal species. The 149 Master's theses and Ph.D. dissertations that have been conducted at the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory are provided as additional references.« less

On the robust optimization to the uncertain vaccination strategy problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaerani, D., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Anggriani, N., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Firdaniza, E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id

2014-02-21

In order to prevent an epidemic of infectious diseases, the vaccination coverage needs to be minimized and also the basic reproduction number needs to be maintained below 1. This means that as we get the vaccination coverage as minimum as possible, thus we need to prevent the epidemic to a small number of people who already get infected. In this paper, we discuss the case of vaccination strategy in term of minimizing vaccination coverage, when the basic reproduction number is assumed as an uncertain parameter that lies between 0 and 1. We refer to the linear optimization model for vaccinationmore » strategy that propose by Becker and Starrzak (see [2]). Assuming that there is parameter uncertainty involved, we can see Tanner et al (see [9]) who propose the optimal solution of the problem using stochastic programming. In this paper we discuss an alternative way of optimizing the uncertain vaccination strategy using Robust Optimization (see [3]). In this approach we assume that the parameter uncertainty lies within an ellipsoidal uncertainty set such that we can claim that the obtained result will be achieved in a polynomial time algorithm (as it is guaranteed by the RO methodology). The robust counterpart model is presented.« less

Spatial spreading model and dynamics of West Nile virus in birds and mosquitoes with free boundary.

PubMed

Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

2017-12-01

In this paper, a reaction-diffusion system is proposed to model the spatial spreading of West Nile virus in vector mosquitoes and host birds in North America. Transmission dynamics are based on a simplified model involving mosquitoes and birds, and the free boundary is introduced to model and explore the expanding front of the infected region. The spatial-temporal risk index [Formula: see text], which involves regional characteristic and time, is defined for the simplified reaction-diffusion model with the free boundary to compare with other related threshold values, including the usual basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. Sufficient conditions for the virus to vanish or to spread are given. Our results suggest that the virus will be in a scenario of vanishing if [Formula: see text], and will spread to the whole region if [Formula: see text] for some [Formula: see text], while if [Formula: see text], the spreading or vanishing of the virus depends on the initial number of infected individuals, the area of the infected region, the diffusion rate and other factors. Moreover, some remarks on the basic reproduction numbers and the spreading speeds are presented and compared.

Mathematical modeling of zika virus disease with nonlinear incidence and optimal control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, Naba Kumar; Srivastav, Akhil Kumar; Ghosh, Mini; Shanmukha, B.

2018-04-01

The Zika virus was first discovered in a rhesus monkey in the Zika Forest of Uganda in 1947, and it was isolated from humans in Nigeria in 1952. Zika virus disease is primarily a mosquito-borne disease, which is transmitted to human primarily through the bite of an infected Aedes species mosquito. However, there is documented evidence of sexual transmission of this disease too. In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model for Zika virus by considering nonlinear incidence is formulated and analyzed. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number (R0) of the model are found. The stability of the different equilibria of the model is discussed in detail. When the basic reproduction number R0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally stable i.e. in this case disease dies out. For R0 > 1, we have endemic equilibrium which is locally stable under some restriction on parameters. Further this model is extended to optimal control model and is analyzed by using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. It has been observed that optimal control plays a significant role in reducing the number of zika infectives. Finally, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the analytical findings.

Dynamical Behavior of a Malaria Model with Discrete Delay and Optimal Insecticide Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, Tuhin Kumar; Jana, Soovoojeet

In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a simple three-dimensional mathematical model related to malaria disease. We consider three state variables associated with susceptible human population, infected human population and infected mosquitoes, respectively. A discrete delay parameter has been incorporated to take account of the time of incubation period with infected mosquitoes. We consider the effect of insecticide control, which is applied to the mosquitoes. Basic reproduction number is figured out for the proposed model and it is shown that when this threshold is less than unity then the system moves to the disease-free state whereas for higher values other than unity, the system would tend to an endemic state. On the other hand if we consider the system with delay, then there may exist some cases where the endemic equilibrium would be unstable although the numerical value of basic reproduction number may be greater than one. We formulate and solve the optimal control problem by considering insecticide as the control variable. Optimal control problem assures to obtain better result than the noncontrol situation. Numerical illustrations are provided in support of the theoretical results.

The spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases with birth and death on heterogeneous networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Hayat, Tasawar

2017-02-01

In this paper, we formulate a deterministic model by including the vacant sites, which represent inactive individuals or potential contacts, to investigate the spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. We first analytically derive the basic reproduction number R 0, which completely determines global dynamics of the system in the long run. Specifically, if R 0  <  1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, i.e. disease disappears from the network irrespective of initial infected numbers and distributions, whereas if R 0  >  1, the system is uniformly persistent around a unique endemic equilibrium, i.e. disease persists in the network. Furthermore, by using a suitable Lyapunov function the global stability of endemic equilibrium for low/high-risk infected individuals only is proved. Finally, the effects of three immunization schemes are studied and compared, and extensive numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effect of network topology and population turnover on disease spread. Our results suggest that population turnover could have great impact on the sexually transmitted disease system in heterogeneous networks, including the basic reproduction number and infection prevalence.

Global dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models with psychological effect.

PubMed

Liu, Sanhong; Pang, Liuyong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

2015-01-01

Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

The effect of sexual transmission on Zika virus dynamics.

PubMed

Saad-Roy, C M; Ma, Junling; van den Driessche, P

2018-04-25

Zika virus is a human disease that may lead to neurological disorders in affected individuals, and may be transmitted vectorially (by mosquitoes) or sexually. A mathematical model of Zika virus transmission is formulated, taking into account mosquitoes, sexually active males and females, inactive individuals, and considering both vector transmission and sexual transmission from infectious males to susceptible females. Basic reproduction numbers are computed, and disease control strategies are evaluated. The effect of the incidence function used to model sexual transmission from infectious males to susceptible females is investigated. It is proved that for such functions that are sublinear, if the basic reproduction [Formula: see text], then the disease dies out and [Formula: see text] is a sharp threshold. Moreover, under certain conditions on model parameters and assuming mass action incidence for sexual transmission, it is proved that if [Formula: see text], there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. However, under nonlinear incidence, it is shown that for certain functions backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation may occur, giving rise to subthreshold equilibria and periodic solutions, respectively. Numerical simulations for various parameter values are displayed to illustrate these behaviours.

Dynamics of a Delayed HIV-1 Infection Model with Saturation Incidence Rate and CTL Immune Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Ting; Liu, Haihong; Xu, Chenglin; Yan, Fang

2016-12-01

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a five-dimensional virus model incorporating saturation incidence rate, CTL immune response and three time delays which represent the latent period, virus production period and immune response delay, respectively. We begin this model by proving the positivity and boundedness of the solutions. Our model admits three possible equilibrium solutions, namely the infection-free equilibrium E0, the infectious equilibrium without immune response E1 and the infectious equilibrium with immune response E2. Moreover, by analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of the feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the equilibrium point E2 are established, respectively. Further, by using fluctuation lemma and suitable Lyapunov functionals, it is shown that E0 is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive numbers for viral infection R0 is less than unity. When the basic reproductive numbers for immune response R1 is less than unity and R0 is greater than unity, the equilibrium point E1 is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out for illustrating the theoretical results.

Seasonality and synchrony of reproduction in three species of nectarivorous Philippines bats

PubMed Central

Heideman, Paul D; Utzurrum, Ruth CB

2003-01-01

Background Differences among species and among years in reproductive seasonality (the tendency for clusters of events to fall at approximately the same point in each year) and synchrony (amount of clustering of events within a year) have been intensively studied in bats, but are difficult to assess. Here, we use randomization methods with circular statistics to test for synchrony and seasonality of reproduction in three species of nectarivorous megachiropteran bats on Negros Island in the central Philippines. Results In Rousettus amplexicaudatus, estimated dates of birth were both highly synchronous and highly seasonal. In Macroglossus minimus, estimated births were seasonal and significantly clustered within years, but within each year births occurred over a broad period, indicating a low level of synchrony. In Eonycteris spelaea, estimated births were also seasonal and had statistically significant synchrony, with birth periods within years intermediate in synchrony between R. amplexicaudatus and M. minimus. All three species had a similar seasonal pattern, with two birth periods in each year, centered on March or April and August or September. In one species, R. amplexicaudatus, primigravid females (in their first pregnancy) produced their young in June and July, a birth period significantly different in timing from the two birth periods of older adult females. This more conservative pattern of young females may allow higher survival of parents and offspring at cost of a lost reproductive opportunity. There was weak evidence that in some years primigravid females of M. minimus might differ in timing from older adults. There were few significant differences in reproductive timing among different years, and those differences were generally less than two weeks, even during a severe drought in the severe el Niño of 1983. Conclusion The results suggest that these species follow an obligately seasonal pattern of reproductive timing with very little phenotypic plasticity. The resampling methods were sensitive to differences in timing of under two weeks, in some cases, suggesting that these are useful methods for analyses of seasonality in wild populations of bats. PMID:14633285

Life-history tradeoffs and reproductive cycles in Spotted Owls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoelting, Ricka E.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Kendall, William L.; Peery, M. Zachariah

2015-01-01

The study of tradeoffs among life-history traits has long been key to understanding the evolution of life-history strategies. However, more recently, evolutionary ecologists have realized that reproductive costs have the potential to influence population dynamics. Here, we tested for costs of reproduction in the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis), and assessed whether costs of reproduction in year t − 1 on reproduction in year t could be responsible for regionally synchronized biennial cycles in reproductive output. Logistic regression analysis and multistate mark–recapture models with state uncertainty revealed that breeding reduced the likelihood of reproducing in the subsequent year by 16% to 38%, but had no influence on subsequent survival. We also found that costs of reproduction in year t − 1 were correlated with climatic conditions in year t, with evidence of higher costs during the dry phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Using a simulation-based population model, we showed that strong reproductive costs had the potential to create biennial cycles in population-level reproductive output; however, estimated costs of reproduction appeared to be too small to explain patterns observed in Spotted Owls. In the absence of strong reproductive costs, we hypothesize that observed natural cycles in the reproductive output of Spotted Owls are related to as-yet-unmeasured, regionally concordant fluctuations in environmental conditions or prey resources. Despite theoretical evidence for demographic effects, our analyses illustrate that linking tradeoffs to actual changes in population processes will be challenging because of the potential confounding effects of individual and environmental variation.

Differential estimates of southern flying squirrel (Glaucomys volans) population structure based on capture method

Treesearch

Kevin S. Laves; Susan C. Loeb

2005-01-01

It is commonly assumed that population estimates derived from trapping small mammals are accurate and unbiased or that estimates derived from different capture methods are comparable. We captured southern flying squirrels (Glaucmrtys volam) using two methods to study their effect on red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides bumah) reproductive success. Southern flying...

Reproductive physiology and development of artificial insemination technology in killer whales (Orcinus orca).

PubMed

Robeck, T R; Steinman, K J; Gearhart, S; Reidarson, T R; McBain, J F; Monfort, S L

2004-08-01

Research was conducted to define the basic reproductive physiology of killer whales (Orcinus orca) and to use this knowledge to facilitate the development of artificial insemination procedures. The specific objectives were 1) to determine the excretory dynamics of urinary LH and ovarian steroid metabolites during the estrous cycle; 2) to evaluate the effect of an exogenously administered, synthetic progesterone analog on reproductive hormone excretion; 3) to validate the use of transabdominal ultrasound for ovarian evaluation and timing of ovulation; 4) to examine the quality of semen after liquid storage and cryopreservation; and 5) to develop an intrauterine insemination technique. Based on urinary endocrine monitoring of 41 follicular phases and 26 complete cycles from five females, estrous cycles were 41 days long and comprised a 17-day follicular phase and a 21-day luteal phase. A consistent temporal relationship was observed between peak estrogen conjugates and the LH surge, the latter of which occurred approximately 0.5 days later. Two animals placed on oral altrenogest (three separate occasions for 30, 17, and 31 days, respectively) excreted peak urinary estrogen concentrations 25 days after withdrawal that were followed by sustained elevations in urinary pregnanediol-3alpha-glucuronide excretion. Mean preovulatory follicle diameter was 3.9 cm (n = 6), and ovulation occurred 38 h (n = 5) after the peak of the LH surge. Based on visual estimates of motility, liquid-stored semen maintained 92% of its raw ejaculate sperm motility index (total progressive motility x kinetic rating [0-5 scale, where 0 = no movement and 5 = rapid progressive movement]) when held at 4 degrees C for 3 days postcollection. Semen cryopreserved using a medium freezing rate demonstrated good postthaw total motility (50%), progressive motility (94%), and kinetic rating (3.5). Insemination during eight estrous cycles resulted in three pregnancies (38%), two from liquid-stored and one from cryopreserved semen. Two calves were delivered after gestation lengths of 552 and 554 days, respectively. These data demonstrate the potential of noninvasive endocrine monitoring combined with serial ultrasonography to improve our understanding of the reproductive biology of cetaceans. This fundamental knowledge was essential for ensuring the first successful conceptions, resulting in live offspring, using artificial insemination in any cetacean species.

Crane reproductive physiology and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gee, G.F.

1983-01-01

Some unique features of crane reproduction, management, and conservation are described. Because cranes are sexually monomorphic, sexing is difficult and must be accomplished using behavior, laparoscopy, cloacal examination, genetic techniques, or fecal steroid analysis. Although husbandry techniques for cranes are similar to those used with other nondomestic birds, a number of basic characteristics, such as extreme aggressiveness, imprinting by the crane chick on man, a delayed molt in the immature crane, delayed sexual maturity, and infertility, pose special problems for the propagator. Artificial insemination is a practical solution to crane infertility. Vigorous captive management and propagation efforts must become increasingly important if several endangered crane species are to survive the continuing decline in wild populations. The ultimate goal is the restoration of suitable habitat and sustainable native populations.

Genetic parameters of ovarian and uterine reproductive traits in dairy cows.

PubMed

Carthy, T R; Ryan, D P; Fitzgerald, A M; Evans, R D; Berry, D P

2015-06-01

The objective of the study was to estimate genetic parameters of detailed reproductive traits derived from ultrasound examination of the reproductive tract as well as their genetic correlations with traditional reproductive traits. A total of 226,141 calving and insemination records as well as 74,134 ultrasound records from Irish dairy cows were used. Traditional reproductive traits included postpartum interval to first service, conception, and next calving, as well as the interval from first to last service; number of inseminations, pregnancy rate to first service, pregnant within 42 d of the herd breeding season, and submission in the first 21 d of the herd breeding season were also available. Detailed reproductive traits included resumed cyclicity at the time of ultrasound examination, incidence of multiple ovulations, incidence of early postpartum ovulation, heat detection, ovarian cystic structures, embryo loss, and uterine score; the latter was a subjectively assessed on a scale of 1 (little fluid with normal uterine tone) to 4 (large quantity of fluid with a flaccid uterine tone). Variance (and covariance) components were estimated using repeatability animal linear mixed models. Heritability for all reproductive traits were generally low (0.001-0.05), with the exception of traits related to cyclicity postpartum, regardless if defined traditionally (0.07; calving to first service) or from ultrasound examination [resumed cyclicity at the time of examination (0.07) or early postpartum ovulation (0.10)]. The genetic correlations among the detailed reproductive traits were generally favorable. The exception was the genetic correlation (0.29) between resumed cyclicity and uterine score; superior genetic merit for cyclicity postpartum was associated with inferior uterine score. Superior genetic merit for most traditional reproductive traits was associated with superior genetic merit for resumed cyclicity (genetic correlations ranged from -0.59 to -0.36 and from 0.56 to 0.70) and uterine score (genetic correlations ranged from -0.47 to 0.32 and from 0.25 to 0.52). Genetic predisposition to an increased incidence of embryo loss was associated with both an inferior uterine score (0.24) and inferior genetic merit for traditional reproductive traits (genetic correlations ranged from -0.52 to -0.42 and from 0.33 to 0.80). The results from the present study indicate that selection based on traditional reproductive traits, such as calving interval or days open, resulted in improved genetic merit of all the detailed reproductive traits evaluated in this study. Additionally, greater accuracy of selection for calving interval is expected for a relatively small progeny group size when detailed reproductive traits are included in a multitrait genetic evaluation. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phenology of Scramble Polygyny in a Wild Population of Chrysolemid Beetles: The Opportunity for and the Strength of Sexual Selection

PubMed Central

Baena, Martha Lucía; Macías-Ordóñez, Rogelio

2012-01-01

Recent debate has highlighted the importance of estimating both the strength of sexual selection on phenotypic traits, and the opportunity for sexual selection. We describe seasonal fluctuations in mating dynamics of Leptinotarsa undecimlineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). We compared several estimates of the opportunity for, and the strength of, sexual selection and male precopulatory competition over the reproductive season. First, using a null model, we suggest that the ratio between observed values of the opportunity for sexual selections and their expected value under random mating results in unbiased estimates of the actual nonrandom mating behavior of the population. Second, we found that estimates for the whole reproductive season often misrepresent the actual value at any given time period. Third, mating differentials on male size and mobility, frequency of male fighting and three estimates of the opportunity for sexual selection provide contrasting but complementary information. More intense sexual selection associated to male mobility, but not to male size, was observed in periods with high opportunity for sexual selection and high frequency of male fights. Fourth, based on parameters of spatial and temporal aggregation of female receptivity, we describe the mating system of L. undecimlineata as a scramble mating polygyny in which the opportunity for sexual selection varies widely throughout the season, but the strength of sexual selection on male size remains fairly weak, while male mobility inversely covaries with mating success. We suggest that different estimates for the opportunity for, and intensity of, sexual selection should be applied in order to discriminate how different behavioral and demographic factors shape the reproductive dynamic of populations. PMID:22761675

Productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection and associated pelvic inflammatory disease in reproductive-aged women.

PubMed

Blandford, John M; Gift, Thomas L

2006-10-01

The productivity losses attributable to disease-related morbidity and mortality impose a burden on society in general and on employers in particular. A reliable assessment of the productivity losses associated with untreated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) would complement earlier work on direct medical costs and contribute to an estimate of the full cost of chlamydial disease. The goal of this study was to estimate the discounted lifetime productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection in reproductive-aged women. We developed a cost model using Monte Carlo methods to estimate the lifetime discounted productivity losses attributable to untreated lower genital tract Ct infection among reproductive-aged women. The model considered the impact of disability resulting from acute pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) associated with untreated Ct infection and from the sequelae of acute PID, including chronic pelvic pain, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility. To accommodate disparate Ct infection rates and labor market characteristics across age groups, we matched age-based risk factors for Ct infection with labor market patterns. Data sources included the 2001 National Chlamydia Surveillance Data, the 2001 Current Population Survey, and published literature. Estimates indicate that the mean weighted productivity losses per untreated Ct infection were approximately US dollars 130 (in year 2001 dollars). Mean weighted productivity losses per case of acute PID were estimated at US dollars 649. Estimated productivity losses were highly correlated with age, reflecting age-dependent differences in labor market characteristics. The productivity losses attributable to untreated infection with Ct and to sequelae of this infection form a substantial portion of the total economic burden of disease. Effective programs to prevent chlamydial infection and effective screening, diagnosis, and treatment of Ct-infected women may reduce productivity losses and substantially lessen the economic burden of disease to employers.

cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

PubMed

Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

2016-07-01

Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing relative abundance and reproductive success of shrubsteppe raptors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lehman, Robert N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.

1998-01-01

From 1991-1994, we quantified relative abundance and reproductive success of the Ferruginous Hawk (Buteo regalis), Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Burrowing Owl (Speotytoc unicularia), and Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) on the shrubsteppe plateaus (benchlands) in and near the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in southwestern Idaho. To assess relative abundance, we searched randomly selected plots using four sampling methods: point counts, line transects, and quadrats of two sizes. On a persampling-effort basis, transects were slightly more effective than point counts and quadrats for locating raptor nests (3.4 pairs detected/100 h of effort vs. 2.2-3.1 pairs). Random sampling using quadrats failed to detect a Short-eared Owl population increase from 1993 to 1994. To evaluate nesting success, we tried to determine reproductive outcome for all nesting attempts located during random, historical, and incidental nest searches. We compared nesting success estimates based on all nesting attempts, on attempts found during incubation, and the Mayfield model. Most pairs used to evaluate success were pairs found incidentally. Visits to historical nesting areas yielded the highest number of pairs per sampling effort (14.6/100 h), but reoccupancy rates for most species decreased through time. Estimates based on all attempts had the highest sample sizes but probably overestimated success for all species except the Ferruginous Hawk. Estimates of success based on nesting attempts found during incubation had the lowest sample sizes. All three methods yielded biased nesting snccess estimates for the Northern Harrier and Short-eared Owl. The estimate based on pairs found during incubation probably provided the least biased estimate for the Burrowing Owl. Assessments of nesting success were hindered by difficulties in confirming egg laying and nesting success for all species except the Ferruginous hawk.

Validation of Student and Parent Report Data on the Basic Grant Application Form. Final Report. Volume II, Estimated Income: CRT Look-Up Study, Individual Case Follow-Up Study, IRS Sample Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Novalis, Carol

The use of estimated income to analyze financial need of applicants to the Basic Educational Opportunity Grant (BEOG) program was investigated. Attention was focused on: how well applicants estimate their income; reasons for errors in estimation, and whether applicants supplying income tax returns supply true versions. For 1,547 eligible BEOG…

Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission

PubMed Central

Perkins, T. Alex; Scott, Thomas W.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Smith, David L.

2013-01-01

The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, . Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission—pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation—and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of , both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data. PMID:24348223

An approach to model monitoring and surveillance data of wildlife diseases-exemplified by Classical Swine Fever in wild boar.

PubMed

Stahnke, N; Liebscher, V; Staubach, C; Ziller, M

2013-11-01

The analysis of epidemiological field data from monitoring and surveillance systems (MOSSs) in wild animals is of great importance in order to evaluate the performance of such systems. By parameter estimation from MOSS data, conclusions about disease dynamics in the observed population can be drawn. To strengthen the analysis, the implementation of a maximum likelihood estimation is the main aim of our work. The new approach presented here is based on an underlying simple SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for a disease scenario in a wildlife population. The three corresponding classes are assumed to govern the intensities (number of animals in the classes) of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. A sampling rate was defined which describes the process of data collection (for MOSSs). Further, the performance of the diagnostics was implemented in the model by a diagnostic matrix containing misclassification rates. Both descriptions of these MOSS parts were included in the Poisson process approach. For simulation studies, the combined model demonstrates its ability to validly estimate epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction rate R0. These parameters will help the evaluation of existing disease control systems. They will also enable comparison with other simulation models. The model has been tested with data from a Classical Swine Fever (CSF) outbreak in wild boars (Sus scrofa scrofa L.) from a region of Germany (1999-2002). The results show that the hunting strategy as a sole control tool is insufficient to decrease the threshold for susceptible animals to eradicate the disease, since the estimated R0 confirms an ongoing epidemic of CSF. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Optimal Cost Effectiveness Study on Zimbabwe Cholera Seasonal Data from 2008–2011

PubMed Central

Sardar, Tridip; Mukhopadhyay, Soumalya; Bhowmick, Amiya Ranjan; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

2013-01-01

Incidence of cholera outbreak is a serious issue in underdeveloped and developing countries. In Zimbabwe, after the massive outbreak in 2008–09, cholera cases and deaths are reported every year from some provinces. Substantial number of reported cholera cases in some provinces during and after the epidemic in 2008–09 indicates a plausible presence of seasonality in cholera incidence in those regions. We formulate a compartmental mathematical model with periodic slow-fast transmission rate to study such recurrent occurrences and fitted the model to cumulative cholera cases and deaths for different provinces of Zimbabwe from the beginning of cholera outbreak in 2008–09 to June 2011. Daily and weekly reported cholera incidence data were collected from Zimbabwe epidemiological bulletin, Zimbabwe Daily cholera updates and Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Zimbabwe (OCHA, Zimbabwe). For each province, the basic reproduction number () in periodic environment is estimated. To the best of our knowledge, this is probably a pioneering attempt to estimate in periodic environment using real-life data set of cholera epidemic for Zimbabwe. Our estimates of agree with the previous estimate for some provinces but differ significantly for Bulawayo, Mashonaland West, Manicaland, Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North. Seasonal trend in cholera incidence is observed in Harare, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland East, Manicaland and Matabeleland South. Our result suggests that, slow transmission is a dominating factor for cholera transmission in most of these provinces. Our model projects cholera cases and cholera deaths during the end of the epidemic in 2008–09 to January 1, 2012. We also determine an optimal cost-effective control strategy among the four government undertaken interventions namely promoting hand-hygiene & clean water distribution, vaccination, treatment and sanitation for each province. PMID:24312540

Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations

PubMed Central

Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Linker, Jon A.; Cost, Angelia A.; Sanchez, Jose L.; George, Dylan; Bacon, David P.; Riley, Steven

2015-01-01

The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R 0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion p C of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: p C, 0.0133–0.150 and R 0, 1.09–2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with p C approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R 0 and p C could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics. PMID:26402446

The critical proportion of immune individuals needed to control hepatitis B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ospina, Juan; Hincapié-Palacio, Doracelly

2016-05-01

We estimate the critical proportion of immunity (Pc) to control hepatitis B in Medellin - Colombia, based on a random population survey of 2077 individuals of 6-64 years of age. The force of infection (Fi) was estimated according to empirical data of susceptibility by age S(a), assuming a quadratic expression. Parameters were estimated by adjusting data to a nonlinear regression. Fi was defined by -(ds(a)/da)/s(a) and according to the form of the empirical curve S(a) we assume a quadratic expression given by S(a)= Ea2+Ba+C. Then we have the explicit expression for the accumulated Fi by age given by F(a) = -a(Ea+B)/c. The expression of average infection age A is obtained as A = L + EL3/(3C)+BL2/(2C) and the basic reproductive number R0 is obtained as R0 = 1 + 6C/(6C+2EL2+3BL). From the las result we obtain the Pc given by Pc= 6C/(12C+2EL2+3BL). Numerical simulations were performed with the age-susceptibility proportion and initial values (a=0.02, b=20, c=100), obtaining an adjusted coefficient of multiple determination of 64.83%. According to the best estimate, the algebraic expressions for S(a) and the Fi were derived. Using the result of Fi, we obtain A = 30, L =85; R0 CI 95%: 1.42 - 1.64 and Pc: 0-0.29. These results indicate that at the worst case, to maintain control of the disease should be immunes at least 30% of susceptible individuals. Similar results were obtained by sex and residential area.

Reproductive biology of blood cockle Anadara granosa (Bivalvia: Arcidae) in the northern region of the Strait of Malacca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, Munawar; Yasin, Zulfigar; Hwai, Tan Shau

2017-03-01

A study on the reproductive cycle of the blood cockle Anadara granosa (Bivalvia: Arcidae) was conducted at three different areas in the northern region of the Strait of Malacca. A total of 1,920 samples of adult A. granosa (38-71 mm length) were collected from June 2009 until September 2010. Qualitative techniques (gonadal microscopic fresh smear test and histology analysis) as well as quantitative techniques (analysis of condition index and gonadal index) were used to predict monthly gonadal development stages of A. granosa. The gonadal index of A. granosa from Banda Aceh (Indonesia) ( r = 0.469, P > 0.05) and Pulau Pinang (Malaysia) ( r = 0.123, P > 0.05) did not show any correlation to their condition index, whereas the gonadal index of A. granosa from Lhokseumawe (Indonesia) ( r = 0.609, P < 0.05) showed moderate positive correlation to the condition index. During the 16 month sampling period, four reproductive cycles were observed: each from three to six months. The process of releasing gametes is termed dribble spawning, and is the same in all populations. The principle component analysis (PCA) indicated that A. granosa reproduction was affected by interaction between internal physiological factors and indigenous environmental factors. In all sampling areas, phytoplankton density played a key role in the reproductive cycle in A. granosa. Information on the reproductive biology of this species is essential for species management and to improve the sustainability practices of the fisheries industry. These findings will provide basic information on the biology of the blood cockle A. granosa for stock management in the region.

Sonomorphology of the reproductive tract in male and pregnant and non-pregnant female Rothschild's giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis rotschildi).

PubMed

Lueders, Imke; Niemuller, Cheryl; Pootoolal, Jason; Rich, Peter; Gray, Charlie; Streich, Wolf Jürgen; Hildebrandt, Thomas Bernd

2009-07-01

The application of real-time-B-mode ultrasonography to wild and zoo animal medicine has been shown to improve the understanding of reproductive physiology in many species. Ultrasound technology is especially helpful for monitoring urogenital health, which in turn has advantages for giraffe breeding and welfare in captivity. This study aimed to ultrasonographically describe the genital organs of reproductively healthy male and female giraffes. Through the use of a restrainer, repeated rectal ultrasound examinations were performed over a 2 year period in 2.6 Rothschild's giraffes. Changes in ovarian activity were monitored throughout four different reproductive stages in the females and included immature, mature-cycling, pregnancy, post-partum-period. In the immature giraffes the ovaries showed multiple follicles of which larger ones luteinized to form pseudo-corpora lutea. By comparison, in the mature giraffes the dominant follicle reached an ovulatory diameter of 18.5+/-0.89 mm. After ovulation, a single corpus luteum rapidly formed and reached a maximum diameter of 33.0+/-2.4mm on average. Pregnancy was detected for the first time by the embryonic vesicle, visualized around 28 days post copulation. Follicular development remained ongoing during early pregnancy. In the males, as in other ruminants, the bulbourethral glands and the seminal vesicles were prominent, whereas the prostate gland was indistinct. Knowledge about the reproductive tract morphology and physiology is necessary for diagnosing medical disorders and abnormalities in giraffes. The aim of this study was to help consolidate the current knowledge on basic reproductive parameters for this species.

Invited review: Recommendations for reporting intervention studies on reproductive performance in dairy cattle: Improving design, analysis, and interpretation of research on reproduction.

PubMed

Lean, Ian J; Lucy, Matthew C; McNamara, John P; Bradford, Barry J; Block, Elliot; Thomson, Jennifer M; Morton, John M; Celi, Pietro; Rabiee, Ahmad R; Santos, José E P; Thatcher, William W; LeBlanc, Stephen J

2016-01-01

Abundant evidence from the medical, veterinary, and animal science literature demonstrates that there is substantial room for improvement of the clarity, completeness, and accuracy of reporting of intervention studies. More rigorous reporting guidelines are needed to improve the quality of data available for use in comparisons of outcomes (or meta-analyses) of multiple studies. Because of the diversity of factors that affect reproduction and the complexity of interactions between these, a systematic approach is required to design, conduct, and analyze basic and applied studies of dairy cattle reproduction. Greater consistency, clarity, completeness, and correctness of design and reporting will improve the value of each report and allow for greater depth of evaluation in meta-analyses. Each of these benefits will improve understanding and application of current knowledge and better identify questions that require additional modeling or primary research. The proposed guidelines and checklist will aid in the design, conduct, analysis, and reporting of intervention studies. We propose an adaptation of the REFLECT (Reporting Guidelines for Randomized Controlled Trials for Livestock and Food Safety) statement to provide guidelines and a checklist specific to reporting intervention studies in dairy cattle reproduction. Furthermore, we provide recommendations that will assist investigators to produce studies with greater internal and external validity that can more often be included in systematic reviews and global meta-analyses. Such studies will also assist the development of models to describe the physiology of reproduction. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What shapes fitness costs of reproduction in long-lived iteroparous species? A case study on the Alpine ibex.

PubMed

Garnier, Alexandre; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Gauthier, Dominique; Besnard, Aurélien

2016-01-01

The fitness costs of reproduction can be masked by individual differences, and may only become apparent during adverse environmental conditions. Individual differences, however, are usually assessed by reproductive success, so how fitness costs are influenced by the interplay between the environmental context and overall individual differences requires further investigation. Here, we evaluated fitness costs of reproduction based on 15 yr of monitoring of individual Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) during a period when the population was affected by a severe disease outbreak (pneumonia). We quantified fitness costs using a novel multi-event capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling approach that accounted for uncertainty in reproductive status to estimate the survival and reproductive success of female ibex while also accounting for overall individual heterogeneity using mixture models. Our results show that the ability of females to reproduce was highly heterogeneous. In particular, one group including 76% of females had a much higher probability of giving birth annually (between 0.66 and 0.77, depending on the previous reproductive status) than females of the second group (24% of females, between 0 and 0.05 probability of giving birth annually). Low reproductive costs in terms of future reproduction occurred and were independent of the pneumonia outbreak. There was no survival cost of reproduction either before or after the epizootic, but the cost was high during the epizootic. Our findings indicate that adverse environmental conditions, such as disease outbreaks, may lead to survival costs of reproduction in long-lived species and select against females that have a high reproductive effort. Thereby, the occurrence of adverse conditions increases the diversity of reproductive tactics within a population.

Fitness prospects: effects of age, sex and recruitment age on reproductive value in a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Zhang, He; Rebke, Maren; Becker, Peter H; Bouwhuis, Sandra

2015-01-01

Reproductive value is an integrated measure of survival and reproduction fundamental to understanding life-history evolution and population dynamics, but little is known about intraspecific variation in reproductive value and factors explaining such variation, if any. By applying generalized additive mixed models to longitudinal individual-based data of the common tern Sterna hirundo, we estimated age-specific annual survival probability, breeding probability and reproductive performance, based on which we calculated age-specific reproductive values. We investigated effects of sex and recruitment age (RA) on each trait. We found age effects on all traits, with survival and breeding probability declining with age, while reproductive performance first improved with age before levelling off. We only found a very small, marginally significant, sex effect on survival probability, but evidence for decreasing age-specific breeding probability and reproductive performance with RA. As a result, males had slightly lower age-specific reproductive values than females, while birds of both sexes that recruited at the earliest ages of 2 and 3 years (i.e. 54% of the tern population) had somewhat higher fitness prospects than birds recruiting at later ages. While the RA effects on breeding probability and reproductive performance were statistically significant, these effects were not large enough to translate to significant effects on reproductive value. Age-specific reproductive values provided evidence for senescence, which came with fitness costs in a range of 17-21% for the sex-RA groups. Our study suggests that intraspecific variation in reproductive value may exist, but that, in the common tern, the differences are small. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Workplace reproductive problems.

PubMed

Frazier, L M

2000-12-01

Occupational exposures can harm reproductive processes in men or women. Exposures may affect fertility, pregnancy outcomes or the child's health after delivery. The goal of patient management is to provide counseling at an appropriate level. Over-restricting the patient should be avoided while hazardous exposures should be identified and reduced. The occupational history can be used to estimate the magnitude of each exposure. If the exposure is a known reproductive hazard and the exposure level appears significant, there are several options for making the job safer. Modifications in work practices can be accomplished by advising the patient about changing work practices, writing formal work restrictions and talking with the employer. Temporary job transfers may be available. In some cases, a medical leave is needed. The primary care provider can play a key role in assisting patients to reduce reproductive risks.

Landscape Effects on Reproduction of Euschistus servus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), a Mobile, Polyphagous, Multivoltine Arthropod Herbivore.

PubMed

Olson, Dawn M; Prescott, Kristina K; Zeilinger, Adam R; Hou, Suqin; Coffin, Alisa W; Smith, Coby M; Ruberson, John R; Andow, David A

2018-06-06

Landscape factors can significantly influence arthropod populations. The economically important brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is a native mobile, polyphagous and multivoltine pest of many crops in southeastern United States and understanding the relative influence of local and landscape factors on their reproduction may facilitate population management. Finite rate of population increase (λ) was estimated in four major crop hosts-maize, peanut, cotton, and soybean-over 3 yr in 16 landscapes of southern Georgia. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to characterize the surrounding landscape structure. LASSO regression was used to identify the subset of local and landscape characteristics and predator densities that account for variation in λ. The percentage area of maize, peanut and woodland and pasture in the landscape and the connectivity of cropland had no influence on E. servus λ. The best model for explaining variation in λ included only four predictor variables: whether or not the sampled field was a soybean field, mean natural enemy density in the field, percentage area of cotton in the landscape and the percentage area of soybean in the landscape. Soybean was the single most important variable for determining E. servus λ, with much greater reproduction in soybean fields than in other crop species. Penalized regression and post-selection inference provide conservative estimates of the landscape-scale determinants of E. servus reproduction and indicate that a relatively simple set of in-field and landscape variables influences reproduction in this species.

Estimating the effective number of breeders from single parr samples for conservation monitoring of wild populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

PubMed

Bacles, C F E; Bouchard, C; Lange, F; Manicki, A; Tentelier, C; Lepais, O

2018-03-01

This study assesses whether the effective number of breeders (N b ) can be estimated using a time and cost-effective protocol using genetic sibship reconstruction from a single sample of young-of-the-year (YOY) for the purposes of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population monitoring. N b was estimated for 10 consecutive reproductive seasons for S. salar in the River Nivelle, a small population located at the rear-edge of the species distribution area in France, chronically under its conservation limit and subjected to anthropogenic and environmental changes. Subsampling of real and simulated data showed that accurate estimates of N b can be obtained from YOY genotypes, collected at moderate random sampling intensity, achievable using routine juvenile electrofishing protocols. Spatial bias and time elapsed since spawning were found to affect estimates, which must be accounted for in sampling designs. N b estimated in autumn for S. salar in the River Nivelle was low and variable across years from 23 (95% C.I. 14-41) to 75 (53-101) and was not statistically correlated with the estimated number of returning adults, but it was positively correlated with the estimated number of YOY at age 9 months. N b was found to be lower for intermediate levels of redd aggregation, suggesting that the strength of the competition between males to access females affects reproductive success variance depending on redd spatial configuration. Thus, environmental factors such as habitat availability and quality for spawning and YOY development predominate over demographic ones (number of returning adults) in driving long-term population viability for S. salar in the River Nivelle. This study showcases N b as an integrated parameter, encompassing demographic and ecological information about a reproductive event, relevant to the assessment of both short-term effects of management practices and long-term population conservation status. © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Modelling the initial phase of an epidemic using incidence and infection network data: 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Israel as a case study

PubMed Central

Katriel, G.; Yaari, R.; Huppert, A.; Roll, U.; Stone, L.

2011-01-01

This paper presents new computational and modelling tools for studying the dynamics of an epidemic in its initial stages that use both available incidence time series and data describing the population's infection network structure. The work is motivated by data collected at the beginning of the H1N1 pandemic outbreak in Israel in the summer of 2009. We formulated a new discrete-time stochastic epidemic SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that explicitly takes into account the disease's specific generation-time distribution and the intrinsic demographic stochasticity inherent to the infection process. Moreover, in contrast with many other modelling approaches, the model allows direct analytical derivation of estimates for the effective reproductive number (Re) and of their credible intervals, by maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The basic model can be extended to include age–class structure, and a maximum likelihood methodology allows us to estimate the model's next-generation matrix by combining two types of data: (i) the incidence series of each age group, and (ii) infection network data that provide partial information of ‘who-infected-who’. Unlike other approaches for estimating the next-generation matrix, the method developed here does not require making a priori assumptions about the structure of the next-generation matrix. We show, using a simulation study, that even a relatively small amount of information about the infection network greatly improves the accuracy of estimation of the next-generation matrix. The method is applied in practice to estimate the next-generation matrix from the Israeli H1N1 pandemic data. The tools developed here should be of practical importance for future investigations of epidemics during their initial stages. However, they require the availability of data which represent a random sample of the real epidemic process. We discuss the conditions under which reporting rates may or may not influence our estimated quantities and the effects of bias. PMID:21247949

Inference of Epidemiological Dynamics Based on Simulated Phylogenies Using Birth-Death and Coalescent Models

PubMed Central

Boskova, Veronika; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian; Stadler, Tanja

2014-01-01

Quantifying epidemiological dynamics is crucial for understanding and forecasting the spread of an epidemic. The coalescent and the birth-death model are used interchangeably to infer epidemiological parameters from the genealogical relationships of the pathogen population under study, which in turn are inferred from the pathogen genetic sequencing data. To compare the performance of these widely applied models, we performed a simulation study. We simulated phylogenetic trees under the constant rate birth-death model and the coalescent model with a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. For each tree, we re-estimated the epidemiological parameters using both a birth-death and a coalescent based method, implemented as an MCMC procedure in BEAST v2.0. In our analyses that estimate the growth rate of an epidemic based on simulated birth-death trees, the point estimates such as the maximum a posteriori/maximum likelihood estimates are not very different. However, the estimates of uncertainty are very different. The birth-death model had a higher coverage than the coalescent model, i.e. contained the true value in the highest posterior density (HPD) interval more often (2–13% vs. 31–75% error). The coverage of the coalescent decreases with decreasing basic reproductive ratio and increasing sampling probability of infecteds. We hypothesize that the biases in the coalescent are due to the assumption of deterministic rather than stochastic population size changes. Both methods performed reasonably well when analyzing trees simulated under the coalescent. The methods can also identify other key epidemiological parameters as long as one of the parameters is fixed to its true value. In summary, when using genetic data to estimate epidemic dynamics, our results suggest that the birth-death method will be less sensitive to population fluctuations of early outbreaks than the coalescent method that assumes a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. PMID:25375100

Identifiability and estimation of multiple transmission pathways in cholera and waterborne disease.

PubMed

Eisenberg, Marisa C; Robertson, Suzanne L; Tien, Joseph H

2013-05-07

Cholera and many waterborne diseases exhibit multiple characteristic timescales or pathways of infection, which can be modeled as direct and indirect transmission. A major public health issue for waterborne diseases involves understanding the modes of transmission in order to improve control and prevention strategies. An important epidemiological question is: given data for an outbreak, can we determine the role and relative importance of direct vs. environmental/waterborne routes of transmission? We examine whether parameters for a differential equation model of waterborne disease transmission dynamics can be identified, both in the ideal setting of noise-free data (structural identifiability) and in the more realistic setting in the presence of noise (practical identifiability). We used a differential algebra approach together with several numerical approaches, with a particular emphasis on identifiability of the transmission rates. To examine these issues in a practical public health context, we apply the model to a recent cholera outbreak in Angola (2006). Our results show that the model parameters-including both water and person-to-person transmission routes-are globally structurally identifiable, although they become unidentifiable when the environmental transmission timescale is fast. Even for water dynamics within the identifiable range, when noisy data are considered, only a combination of the water transmission parameters can practically be estimated. This makes the waterborne transmission parameters difficult to estimate, leading to inaccurate estimates of important epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0). However, measurements of pathogen persistence time in environmental water sources or measurements of pathogen concentration in the water can improve model identifiability and allow for more accurate estimation of waterborne transmission pathway parameters as well as R0. Parameter estimates for the Angola outbreak suggest that both transmission pathways are needed to explain the observed cholera dynamics. These results highlight the importance of incorporating environmental data when examining waterborne disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maternal Smoking Among Women With and Without Use of Assisted Reproductive Technologies

PubMed Central

Tong, Van T.; Kissin, Dmitry M.; Bernson, Dana; Copeland, Glenn; Boulet, Sheree L.; Zhang, Yujia; Jamieson, Denise J.; England, Lucinda J.

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate smoking prevalence during the year before pregnancy and during pregnancy and adverse outcomes among women who delivered infants with and without assisted reproductive technology (ART) using linked birth certificates (BC) and National ART Surveillance System (NASS) data. Methods Data were analyzed for 384,390 women and 392,248 infants born in Massachusetts and Michigan during 2008–2009. Maternal smoking prevalence was estimated using smoking indicated from BC by ART status. For ART users, to evaluate underreporting, prepregnancy smoking was estimated from BC, NASS, or both sources. Effect of prenatal smoking on preterm and mean birthweight (term only) for singleton infants were examined by ART status. Results Maternal smoking prevalence estimates were significantly lower for ART users than nonusers (pre-pregnancy = 3.2% vs. 16.7%; prenatal = 1.0% vs. 11.1%, p < 0.05). When combining smoking information from BC and NASS, prepregnancy smoking prevalence estimates for ART users could be as high as 4.4% to 6.1%. Adverse effects of smoking on infant outcomes in ART pregnancies were consistent with the effects seen in non-ART pregnancies, specifically decline in infant birthweight and increase in preterm delivery, although association between smoking and preterm was not significant. Conclusion A low, but substantial proportion of ART users smoked before and during pregnancy. As ART users are highly motivated to get pregnant, it should be clearly communicated that smoking can decrease fertility and adversely affect pregnancy outcomes. Continued efforts are needed to encourage smoking cessation and maintain tobacco abstinence among all women of reproductive age. PMID:27243366

Comparing the Reproductive Success of Yakima River Hatchery- and Wild-Origin Spring Chinook; Yakima/Klickitat Fisheries Project Monitoring and Evaluation, 2005-2006 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schroder, S.L.; Pearsons, T.N.; Knudsen, C.M.

Reproductive success in wild- and first generation hatchery-origin spring Chinook males was examined by allowing the fish to compete for spawning opportunities in two sections of an observation stream. Behavioral observations were used to characterize the frequency of aggression and courting activities. Microsatellite DNA from each male and fry collected from the observation stream were used in pedigree analyses to estimate reproductive success. The coefficient of variation in male reproductive success equaled 116 and 86% in the two populations. No differences were detected in reproductive success due to hatchery or wild origin. Nor were any behavioral differences found between hatcherymore » and wild males. Although statistical power was low due to intrinsic variation a great deal of overlap existed in the reproductive success values of hatchery and wild males. Significant disparities existed among the males on their ability to produce offspring. Males achieving high reproductive success mated with numerous females, were socially dominant, aggressive, and tended to stay in localized areas, courting and spawning with females that were adjacent to one another.« less

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Olson, Lucretia E; Blumstein, Daniel T; Armitage, Kenneth B

2007-11-01

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive rates is a common phenomenon in many wildlife populations, but the population dynamic consequences of spatial and temporal variability in different components of reproduction remain poorly understood. We used 43 years (1962-2004) of data from 17 locations and a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling framework to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and its influence on the realized population growth rate. Specifically, we estimated and modeled breeding probabilities of two-year-old females (earliest age of first reproduction), >2-year-old females that have not reproduced before (subadults), and >2-year-old females that have reproduced before (adults), as well as the litter sizes of two-year old and >2-year-old females. Most reproductive parameters exhibited spatial and/or temporal variation. However, reproductive parameters differed with respect to their relative influence on the realized population growth rate (lambda). Litter size had a stronger influence than did breeding probabilities on both spatial and temporal variations in lambda. Our analysis indicated that lambda was proportionately more sensitive to survival than recruitment. However, the annual fluctuation in litter size, abetted by the breeding probabilities, accounted for most of the temporal variation in lambda.

Reproductive health financing in Kenya: an analysis of national commitments, donor assistance, and the resources tracking process.

PubMed

Sidze, Estelle M; Pradhan, Jalandhar; Beekink, Erik; Maina, Thomas M; Maina, Beatrice W

2013-11-01

Understanding the flow of resources at the country level to reproductive health is essential for effective financing of this key component of health. This paper gives a comprehensive picture of the allocation of resources for reproductive health in Kenya and the challenges faced in the resource-tracking process. Data are drawn from Kenyan budget estimates, reproductive health accounts, and the Resource Flows Project database and compare budgets and spending in 2005-06 with 2009-10. Despite policies and programmes in place since 1994, services for family planning, maternity care and infant and child health face serious challenges. As regards health financing, the government spends less than the average in sub-Saharan Africa, while donor assistance and out-of-pocket expenditure for health are high. Donor assistance to Kenya has increased over the years, but the percentage of funds devoted to reproductive health is lower than it was in 2005. We recommend an increase in the budget and spending for reproductive health in order to achieve MDG targets on maternal mortality and universal access to reproductive health in Kenya. Safety nets for the poor are also needed to reduce the burden of spending by households. Lastly, we recommend the generation of more comprehensive reproductive health accounts on a regular basis. Copyright © 2013 Reproductive Health Matters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategies for Revising Judgment: How (and How Well) People Use Others' Opinions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soll, Jack B.; Larrick, Richard P.

2009-01-01

A basic issue in social influence is how best to change one's judgment in response to learning the opinions of others. This article examines the strategies that people use to revise their quantitative estimates on the basis of the estimates of another person. The authors note that people tend to use 2 basic strategies when revising estimates:…

Calculating length of gestation from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System (SART CORS) database versus vital records may alter reported rates of prematurity.

PubMed

Stern, Judy E; Kotelchuck, Milton; Luke, Barbara; Declercq, Eugene; Cabral, Howard; Diop, Hafsatou

2014-05-01

To compare length of gestation after assisted reproductive technology (ART) as calculated by three methods from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System (SART CORS) and vital records (birth and fetal death) in the Massachusetts Pregnancy to Early Life Longitudinal Data System (PELL). Historical cohort study. Database linkage analysis. Live or stillborn deliveries. None. ART deliveries were linked to live birth or fetal death certificates. Length of gestation in 7,171 deliveries from fresh autologous ART cycles (2004-2008) was calculated and compared with that of SART CORS with the use of methods: M1 = outcome date - cycle start date; M2 = outcome date - transfer date + 17 days; and M3 = outcome date - transfer date + 14 days + day of transfer. Generalized estimating equation models were used to compare methods. Singleton and multiple deliveries were included. Overall prematurity (delivery <37 weeks) varied by method of calculation: M1 29.1%; M2 25.6%; M3 25.2%; and PELL 27.2%. The SART methods, M1-M3, varied from those of PELL by ≥ 3 days in >45% of deliveries and by more than 1 week in >22% of deliveries. Each method differed from each other. Estimates of preterm birth in ART vary depending on source of data and method of calculation. Some estimates may overestimate preterm birth rates for ART conceptions. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate.

PubMed Central

Lima, M.; Stenseth, N. C.; Yoccoz, N. G.; Jaksic, F. M.

2001-01-01

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate. PMID:11571053

Genetic relationship of body energy and blood metabolites with reproduction in holstein cows.

PubMed

Oikonomou, G; Arsenos, G; Valergakis, G E; Tsiaras, A; Zygoyiannis, D; Banos, G

2008-11-01

Body condition score (BCS), energy content (EC), cumulative effective energy balance (CEEB), and blood serum concentrations of glucose, beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), and nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) were measured throughout first lactation in 497 Holstein cows raised on a large commercial farm in northern Greece. All these traits are considered to be indicators of a cow's energy balance. An additional measure of BCS, EC, and blood serum glucose, BHBA, and NEFA concentrations were taken approximately 2 mo (61 +/- 23 d) before first calving. During first lactation, first service conception rate, conception rate in the first 305 d of lactation, interval from calving to conception, number of inseminations per conception, incidence of metritis, and incidence of reproductive problems of these cows were recorded; interval between first and second calving, and second lactation first service conception rate were also recorded. Random regression models were used to calculate weekly animal breeding values for first lactation BCS, EC, CEEB, glucose, BHBA, and NEFA. Single trait animal models were used to calculate breeding values for these traits measured on pregnant heifers before calving. Reproductive records were then regressed on animal breeding values for these energy balance-related traits to derive estimates of their genetic correlations. Several significant estimates were obtained. In general, traits that are known to be positively correlated with energy balance (BCS, EC, CEEB, and glucose) were found to have a favorable genetic relationship with reproduction, meaning that increased levels of the former will lead to an enhancement of the latter. On the other hand, traits known to be negatively correlated with energy balance (BHBA and NEFA) were found to have an unfavorable genetic association with reproductive traits. Body condition score, BHBA, and NEFA recorded early in lactation, and glucose concentrations measured in pregnant heifers had the highest genetic correlation with future reproductive performance. Results suggest that genetic selection for body energy and blood metabolites could facilitate the genetic improvement of fertility and overall reproductive efficiency of dairy cows.

NTP-CERHR Monograph on the Potential Human Reproductive and Developmental Effects of Di-n-Butyl Phthalate (DBP).

PubMed

2003-04-01

TThe National Toxicology Program (NTP) Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR) conducted an evaluation of the potential for di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP) to cause adverse effects on reproduction and development in humans. DBP is one of 7 phthalate chemicals evaluated by the NTP CERHR Phthalates Expert Panel. These phthalates were selected for evaluation because of high production volume, extent of human exposures, use in children's products, and/or published evidence of reproductive or developmental toxicity. Unlike many phthalates, DBP is not currently used as a plasticizer in polyvinyl chloride plastics. DBP is a component of latex adhesives and is used in cosmetics and other personal care products, as a plasticizer in cellulose plastics, and as a solvent for dyes. The results of this evaluation on DBP are published in a NTP-CERHR monograph which includes: 1) the NTP Brief, 2) the Expert Panel Report on the Reproductive and Developmental Toxicity of Di-n-Butyl Phthalate, and 3) public comments received on the Expert Panel Report. As stated in the NTP Brief, the NTP reached the following conclusions regarding the possible effects of exposure to DBP on human development and reproduction. First, although DBP could possibly affect human reproduction and development if exposures are sufficiently high, the NTP concludes that there is negligible concern for reproductive toxicity in exposed adults. Second, the NTP concludes that there is minimal concern for developmental effects when pregnant women are exposed to DBP levels estimated by the panel (2-10 mug/kg body weight/day). There is no direct evidence that exposure of people to DBP adversely affects reproduction or development, but studies reviewed by the expert panel show that oral exposure to high doses of DBP (>/=100 mg/kg body weight/day) may adversely affect the prenatal and early postnatal development in rodents. Finally, based on exposure estimates in women of reproductive age, the NTP concludes that there is some concern for DBP causing adverse effects to human development, particularly development of the male reproductive system. NTP-CERHR monographs are transmitted to federal and state agencies, interested parties, and the public and are available electronically in PDF format on the CERHR web site (http://cerhr.niehs.nih.gov) and in printed text or CD-ROM from the CERHR (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, P.O. Box 12233, MD EC-32, Research Triangle Park, NC; fax: 919-316-4511).

Gonadotropin subunits of the characiform Astyanax altiparanae: Molecular characterization, spatiotemporal expression and their possible role on female reproductive dysfunction in captivity.

PubMed

de Jesus, Lázaro Wender O; Bogerd, Jan; Vieceli, Felipe M; Branco, Giovana S; Camargo, Marília P; Cassel, Mônica; Moreira, Renata G; Yan, Chao Y I; Borella, Maria I

2017-05-15

To better understand the endocrine control of reproduction in Characiformes and the reproductive dysfunctions that commonly occur in migratory fish of this order when kept in captivity, we chose Astyanax altiparanae, which has asynchronous ovarian development and multiple spawning events, as model species. From A. altiparanae pituitary total RNA, we cloned the full-length cDNAs coding for the follicle-stimulating hormone β subunit (fshb), the luteinizing hormone β subunit (lhb), and the common gonadotropin α subunit (gpha). All three sequences showed the highest degree of amino acid identity with other homologous sequences from Siluriformes and Cypriniformes. Real-time, quantitative PCR analysis showed that gpha, fshb and lhb mRNAs were restricted to the pituitary gland. In situ hybridization and immunofluorescence, using specific-developed and characterized polyclonal antibodies, revealed that both gonadotropin β subunits mRNAs/proteins are expressed by distinct populations of gonadotropic cells in the proximal pars distalis. No marked variations for lhb transcripts levels were detected during the reproductive cycle, and 17α,20β-dihydroxy-4-pregnen-3-one plasma levels were also constant, suggesting that the reproductive dysfunction seen in A. altiparanae females in captivity are probably due to a lack of increase of Lh synthesis during spawning season. In contrast, fshb transcripts changed significantly during the reproductive cycle, although estradiol-17β (E 2 ) levels remained constant during the experiment, possibly due to a differential regulation of E 2 synthesis. Taken together, these data demonstrate the putative involvement of gonadotropin signaling on the impairment of the reproductive function in a migratory species when kept in captivity. Future experimental studies must be carried to clarify this hypothesis. All these data open the possibility for further basic and applied studies related to reproduction in this fish model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Funding priorities in animal reproduction at the United States Department of Agriculture's Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service.

PubMed

Mirando, Mark A; Hamernik, Debora L

2006-03-01

The National Research Initiative (NRI) Competitive Grants Program is the U.S. Department of Agriculture's major competitive grants program and is administered by the Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service (CSREES). Since its inception in 1991, the NRI has funded competitive grants in the discipline of animal reproduction. Previously, this program provided funding for a broad range of projects encompassing almost every subdiscipline in reproductive biology of farm animals, including aquatic species important to the aquaculture industry. During fiscal year 2004, the NRI Animal Reproduction Program narrowed the focus of funding priorities to the topics of infertility, basic mechanisms regulating fertility, cryopreservation of gametes, reducing the postpartum interval to conception, and sterilization methods or development of monosex populations. In response to a directive to further narrow the focus of funding priorities for fiscal year 2005 and beyond, CSREES conducted a Stakeholder Workshop on Funding Priorities in Animal Reproduction at the 37th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Study of Reproduction in Vancouver, Canada. More than 75 stakeholder scientists from a cross section of federal, public, and private institutions from across the United States participated in the workshop and provided recommendations to CSREES for future NRI-funding priorities in Animal Reproduction. The recommendations provided by stakeholders included continuing efforts to focus funding priorities into fewer high-impact areas relevant to animal agriculture and aquaculture. Recommendations also included movement back toward subdisciplines of animal reproduction that cut across all applicable species. The three funding priorities that consistently emerged as recommendations from the workshop participants were 1) gonadal function and production of gametes, 2) pituitary-hypothalamic function, and 3) embryo and conceptus development, including interaction between the conceptus and uterus. These funding priorities were considered when preparing the fiscal year 2006 NRI Request for Applications.

Invasiveness of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and Vectorial Capacity for Chikungunya Virus.

PubMed

Lounibos, Leon Philip; Kramer, Laura D

2016-12-15

In this review, we highlight biological characteristics of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, 2 invasive mosquito species and primary vectors of chikungunya virus (CHIKV), that set the tone of these species' invasiveness, vector competence, and vectorial capacity (VC). The invasiveness of both species, as well as their public health threats as vectors, is enhanced by preference for human blood. Vector competence, characterized by the efficiency of an ingested arbovirus to replicate and become infectious in the mosquito, depends largely on vector and virus genetics, and most A. aegypti and A. albopictus populations thus far tested confer vector competence for CHIKV. VC, an entomological analog of the pathogen's basic reproductive rate (R 0 ), is epidemiologically more important than vector competence but less frequently measured, owing to challenges in obtaining valid estimates of parameters such as vector survivorship and host feeding rates. Understanding the complexities of these factors will be pivotal in curbing CHIKV transmission. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Male reproductive disorders, diseases, and costs of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals in the European Union.

PubMed

Hauser, Russ; Skakkebaek, Niels E; Hass, Ulla; Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders; Andersson, Anna Maria; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Heindel, Jerrold J; Trasande, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Increasing evidence suggests that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) contribute to male reproductive diseases and disorders. To estimate the incidence/prevalence of selected male reproductive disorders/diseases and associated economic costs that can be reasonably attributed to specific EDC exposures in the European Union (EU). An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change weight-of-evidence characterization. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated, and biomarker data were organized from carefully identified studies from the peer-reviewed literature to represent European exposure and approximate burden of disease as it occurred in 2010. The cost-of-illness estimation utilized multiple peer-reviewed sources. The expert panel identified low epidemiological and strong toxicological evidence for male infertility attributable to phthalate exposure, with a 40-69% probability of causing 618,000 additional assisted reproductive technology procedures, costing €4.71 billion annually. Low epidemiological and strong toxicological evidence was also identified for cryptorchidism due to prenatal polybrominated diphenyl ether exposure, resulting in a 40-69% probability that 4615 cases result, at a cost of €130 million (sensitivity analysis, €117-130 million). A much more modest (0-19%) probability of causation in testicular cancer by polybrominated diphenyl ethers was identified due to very low epidemiological and weak toxicological evidence, with 6830 potential cases annually and costs of €848 million annually (sensitivity analysis, €313-848 million). The panel assigned 40-69% probability of lower T concentrations in 55- to 64-year-old men due to phthalate exposure, with 24 800 associated deaths annually and lost economic productivity of €7.96 billion. EDCs may contribute substantially to male reproductive disorders and diseases, with nearly €15 billion annual associated costs in the EU. These estimates represent only a few EDCs for which there were sufficient epidemiological studies and those with the highest probability of causation. These public health costs should be considered as the EU contemplates regulatory action on EDCs.

Validation of a spectrophotometer-based method for estimating daily sperm production and deferent duct transit.

PubMed

Froman, D P; Rhoads, D D

2012-10-01

The objectives of the present work were 3-fold. First, a new method for estimating daily sperm production was validated. This method, in turn, was used to evaluate testis output as well as deferent duct throughput. Next, this analytical approach was evaluated in 2 experiments. The first experiment compared left and right reproductive tracts within roosters. The second experiment compared reproductive tract throughput in roosters from low and high sperm mobility lines. Standard curves were constructed from which unknown concentrations of sperm cells and sperm nuclei could be predicted from observed absorbance. In each case, the independent variable was based upon hemacytometer counts, and absorbance was a linear function of concentration. Reproductive tracts were excised, semen recovered from each duct, and the extragonadal sperm reserve determined by multiplying volume by sperm cell concentration. Testicular sperm nuclei were procured by homogenization of a whole testis, overlaying a 20-mL volume of homogenate upon 15% (wt/vol) Accudenz (Accurate Chemical and Scientific Corporation, Westbury, NY), and then washing nuclei by centrifugation through the Accudenz layer. Daily sperm production was determined by dividing the predicted number of sperm nuclei within the homogenate by 4.5 d (i.e., the time sperm with elongated nuclei spend within the testis). Sperm transit through the deferent duct was estimated by dividing the extragonadal reserve by daily sperm production. Neither the efficiency of sperm production (sperm per gram of testicular parenchyma per day) nor deferent duct transit differed between left and right reproductive tracts (P > 0.05). Whereas efficiency of sperm production did not differ (P > 0.05) between low and high sperm mobility lines, deferent duct transit differed between lines (P < 0.001). On average, this process required 2.2 and 1.0 d for low and high lines, respectively. In summary, we developed and then tested a method for quantifying male reproductive tract throughput. This method makes the study of semen production amenable to systems biology.

Child health and nutrition in Peru within an antipoverty political agenda: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

PubMed

Huicho, Luis; Segura, Eddy R; Huayanay-Espinoza, Carlos A; de Guzman, Jessica Niño; Restrepo-Méndez, Maria Clara; Tam, Yvonne; Barros, Aluisio J D; Victora, Cesar G

2016-06-01

Peru is an upper-middle-income country with wide social and regional disparities. In recent years, sustained multisectoral antipoverty programmes involving governments, political parties, and civil society have included explicit health and nutrition goals and spending increased sharply. We did a country case study with the aim of documenting Peru's progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health from 2000-13, and explored the potential determinants. We examined the outcomes of health interventions coverage, under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, and prevalence of under-5 stunting. We obtained data from interviews with key informants, a literature review of published and unpublished data, national censuses, and governmental reports. We obtained information on social determinants of health, including economic growth, poverty, unmet basic needs, urbanisation, women's education, water supply, fertility rates, and child nutrition from the annual national households surveys and the Peruvian Demographic and Health Surveys. We obtained national mortality data from the Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, and calculated subnational rates from 11 surveys. Analyses were stratified by region, wealth quintiles, and urban or rural residence. We calculated coverage indicators for the years 2000-13, and we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the effect of changes in intervention coverage and in nutritional status on mortality. From 2000 to 2013, under-5 mortality fell by 58% from 39·8 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 16·7. LiST, which was used to predict the decline in mortality arising from changes in fertility rates, water and sanitation, undernutrition, and coverage of indicators of reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health predicted that the under-5 mortality rate would fall from 39·8 to 28·4 per 1000 livebirths, accounting for 49·2% of the reported reduction. Neonatal mortality fell by 51% from 16·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 8·0. Stunting prevalence remained stable at around 30% until 2007, decreasing to 17·5% by 2013, and the composite coverage index for essential health interventions increased from 75·1% to 82·6%, with faster increases among the poor, in rural areas, and in the Andean region. Socioeconomic, urban-rural, and regional inequalities in coverage, mortality, and stunting were substantially reduced. The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 47·8% to 23·9%, women with fewer than 4 years of schooling reduced from 11·5% to 6·9%, urbanisation increased from 68·1% to 75·6%, and the total fertility rate decreased from 3·0 children per woman to 2·4. We interviewed 175 key informants and they raised the following issues: economic growth, improvement of social determinants, civil society empowerment and advocacy, out-of-health and within-health-sector changes, and sustained implementation of evidence-based, pro-poor reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health interventions. Peru has made substantial progress in reducing neonatal and under-5 mortality, and child stunting. This country is a good example of how a combination of political will, economic growth, broad societal participation, strategies focused on poor people, and increased spending in health and related sectors can achieve significant progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health. The remaining challenges include continuing to address inequalities in wealth distribution, poverty, and access to basic services, especially in the Amazon and Andean rural areas. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 Huicho et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY 4.0. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Genetic parameters for ewe reproductive performance and peri-parturient fecal egg counts and their genetic relationships with lamb body weights and fecal egg counts in Katahdin sheep

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study estimated genetic parameters for ewe reproductive traits [number of lambs born (NLB) and weaned (NLW) per ewe lambing] and peri-parturient (PPR) fecal egg counts (FEC) at lambing (PPR0) and 30 d postpartum (PPR30), and their genetic relationships with lamb BW and FEC in Katahdin sheep. Th...