Quantification of long-term erosion rates from root exposure/tree age relationships in an alpine meadow catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scuderi, Louis A.

2017-04-01

Erosion rates derived using dendrogeomorphology have been used to quantify slope degradation in many localities globally. However, with the exception of the western United States, most of these estimates are derived from short-lived trees whose lifetimes may not adequately reflect the complete range of slope processes which can include erosion, deposition, impacts of extreme events and even long-term hiatuses. Erosion rate estimates at a given site using standard techniques therefore reflect censored local point erosion estimates rather than long-term rates. We applied a modified dendrogeomorphic approach to rapidly estimate erosion rates from dbh/age relationships to assess the difference between short and long-term rates and found that the mean short-term rate was 0.13 cm/yr with high variability, while the uncensored long-term rate was 0.06 cm/yr. The results indicate that rates calculated from short-lived trees, while possibly appropriate for local short-term point estimates of erosion, are highly variable and may overestimate regional long-term rates by > 50%. While these findings do not invalidate the use of dendrogeomorphology to estimate erosion rates they do suggest that care must be taken to select older trees that incorporate a range of slope histories in order to best approximate regional long-term rates.

Effect of Bench Press Load Knowledge on Repetitions, Rating of Perceived Exertion, and Attentional Focus.

PubMed

Beaudoin, Christina M; Cox, Zachary; Dundore, Tyler; Thomas, Tayler; Kim, Johnathon; Pillivant, Daniel

2018-02-01

Beaudoin, CM, Cox, Z, Dundore, T, Thomas, T, Kim, J, and Pillivant, D. Effect of bench press load knowledge on repetitions, rating of perceived exertion, and attentional focus. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 514-519, 2018-Few studies have examined the role of the teleoanticipation during resistance training. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of bench press (BP) load knowledge on repetitions completed, ratings of perceived exertion (RPEs), and attentional focus (% associative). Thirty-six recreationally active resistance-trained men (n = 25) and women (n = 11) participated in this study (age = 20.97 ± 1.87 years; ht = 174.12 ± 9.41 cm; and mass = 80.14 ± 14.03 kg). All subjects completed 3 testing sessions: (a) 1 repetition maximum (1RM) BP determination; (b) submaximal BP repetitions to fatigue known load (KL); and (c) submaximal BP repetitions to fatigue unknown load (UL). Known load and UL sessions were randomized and counterbalanced and both completed at 70% 1RM. An estimated weight ratio was computed using the subject's estimate of the UL weight relative to the KL weight. An independent samples t-test revealed no significant testing order difference for the estimated weight ratio. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variances revealed no significant differences in the number of repetitions (p = 0.63), RPE (p = 0.18), or attentional focus (% associative) (p = 0.93) between the KL and UL conditions. Pearson correlations found a moderate positive association between KL repetitions completed and % associative focus when the UL was completed before the KL. Load knowledge did not influence the number of repetitions, RPE, or attentional focus while completing the BP. Further research examining the use of pacing strategies, RPE, and attentional focus during KL and UL conditions are warranted.

Heterogeneity in outcomes of treated HIV-positive patients in Europe and North America: relation with patient and cohort characteristics.

PubMed

May, Margaret T; Hogg, Robert S; Justice, Amy C; Shepherd, Bryan E; Costagliola, Dominique; Ledergerber, Bruno; Thiébaut, Rodolphe; Gill, M John; Kirk, Ole; van Sighem, Ard; Saag, Michael S; Navarro, Gemma; Sobrino-Vegas, Paz; Lampe, Fiona; Ingle, Suzanne; Guest, Jodie L; Crane, Heidi M; D'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Vehreschild, Jörg J; Sterne, Jonathan A C

2012-12-01

HIV cohort collaborations, which pool data from diverse patient cohorts, have provided key insights into outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, the extent of, and reasons for, between-cohort heterogeneity in rates of AIDS and mortality are unclear. We obtained data on adult HIV-positive patients who started ART from 1998 without a previous AIDS diagnosis from 17 cohorts in North America and Europe. Patients were followed up from 1 month to 2 years after starting ART. We examined between-cohort heterogeneity in crude and adjusted (age, sex, HIV transmission risk, year, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA at start of ART) rates of AIDS and mortality using random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression. During 61 520 person-years, 754/38 706 (1.9%) patients died and 1890 (4.9%) progressed to AIDS. Between-cohort variance in mortality rates was reduced from 0.84 to 0.24 (0.73 to 0.28 for AIDS rates) after adjustment for patient characteristics. Adjusted mortality rates were inversely associated with cohorts' estimated completeness of death ascertainment [excellent: 96-100%, good: 90-95%, average: 75-89%; mortality rate ratio 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.46-0.94) per category]. Mortality rate ratios comparing Europe with North America were 0.42 (0.31-0.57) before and 0.47 (0.30-0.73) after adjusting for completeness of ascertainment. Heterogeneity between settings in outcomes of HIV treatment has implications for collaborative analyses, policy and clinical care. Estimated mortality rates may require adjustment for completeness of ascertainment. Higher mortality rate in North American, compared with European, cohorts was not fully explained by completeness of ascertainment and may be because of the inclusion of more socially marginalized patients with higher mortality risk.

Water potential changes in faecal matter and Escherichia coli survival.

PubMed

Garfield, L M; Walker, M J

2008-10-01

This study investigated the influence of a range of evaporation rates (2.0, 5.3 and 7.4 mm day(-1)) on degradation of E. coli (ATCC Strain 25922) inoculated in canine faeces. Experiments were carried out in an environmental chamber and a first order exponential decay function (Chick's Law) was used to estimate degradation rates. We estimated die-off coefficients using linear regression. Die-off rates were -0.07, -0.22 and -0.23 h(-1), respectively, for evaporation rates of 2.0, 5.3 and 7.4 mm day(-1) (P = 0.000+, for each model). Nearly complete die-off was found within 15-60 h (7.4-2.0 mm day(-1) evaporation rates), which corresponds with a water potential of approximately -22.4 MPa. This study indicates that canine faeces need not be desiccated to achieve complete loss of indicator organisms. Water potential, which is a combination of osmotic and matric potential, is a key stress that increases as evaporation removes water from the faecal matrix and increases concentration of the remaining faecal solution. Evaporation may remove populations of indicator organisms in faeces relatively quickly, even though faeces are not completely dehydrated. This research may be used as the foundation for studies more closely resembling real-world evaporation conditions including diurnal fluctuations, rewetting and freezing.

Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foote, M.; Raup, D. M.

1996-01-01

The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.

Instilling positive beliefs about disabilities: pilot testing a novel experiential learning activity for rehabilitation students.

PubMed

Silverman, Arielle M; Pitonyak, Jennifer S; Nelson, Ian K; Matsuda, Patricia N; Kartin, Deborah; Molton, Ivan R

2018-05-01

To develop and test a novel impairment simulation activity to teach beginning rehabilitation students how people adapt to physical impairments. Masters of Occupational Therapy students (n = 14) and Doctor of Physical Therapy students (n = 18) completed the study during the first month of their program. Students were randomized to the experimental or control learning activity. Experimental students learned to perform simple tasks while simulating paraplegia and hemiplegia. Control students viewed videos of others completing tasks with these impairments. Before and after the learning activities, all students estimated average self-perceived health, life satisfaction, and depression ratings among people with paraplegia and hemiplegia. Experimental students increased their estimates of self-perceived health, and decreased their estimates of depression rates, among people with paraplegia and hemiplegia after the learning activity. The control activity had no effect on these estimates. Impairment simulation can be an effective way to teach rehabilitation students about the adaptations that people make to physical impairments. Positive impairment simulations should allow students to experience success in completing activities of daily living with impairments. Impairment simulation is complementary to other pedagogical methods, such as simulated clinical encounters using standardized patients. Implication of Rehabilitation It is important for rehabilitation students to learn how people live well with disabilities. Impairment simulations can improve students' assessments of quality of life with disabilities. To be beneficial, impairment simulations must include guided exposure to effective methods for completing daily tasks with disabilities.

How many individuals achieve symptom abstinence following psychological treatments for bulimia nervosa? A meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Linardon, Jake; Wade, Tracey D

2018-04-01

It is unclear how many patients with bulimia nervosa (BN) completely abstain from the core behavioral symptoms after receiving psychological treatment. The present meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) aimed to (a) estimate the prevalence of patients who abstain from binge eating and/or purging following all psychological treatments for BN, and (b) test whether these abstinence estimates are moderated by the type of treatment modality delivered, the definition of abstinence applied, and trial quality. Forty-five RCTs were included, with 78 psychotherapy conditions. Pooled event rates were calculated using random effects models. At post-treatment, the total weighted percentage of treatment-completers who achieved abstinence was 35.4% (95% CI = 29.6, 41.7), while the total weighted percentage of abstinence for all randomized patients (intention-to-treat) was 29.9% (95% CI = 25.7, 33.2). Abstinence estimates were highest in trials that used behavioral-based treatments (e.g., cognitive-behavioral therapy, behavior therapy). There was also evidence that guided self-help interventions produced the lowest post-treatment abstinence rates, but with no difference at follow-up from clinician-led treatments, and studies that used a shorter timeframe for defining abstinence (i.e., 14 days symptom-free compared to 28-days symptom-free) produced the highest abstinence rates. Abstinence estimates at follow-up for both the completer (34.6%; 95% CI = 29.3, 40.2) and intention-to-treat (28.6%; 95% CI = 25.1, 32.3) analyses were essentially the same as the post-treatment estimates. Over 60% of patients fail to fully abstain from core BN symptoms even after receiving our most empirically-supported treatments. The present findings highlight the urgency toward improving the effectiveness of psychological treatments for BN. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Minimax Rate-optimal Estimation of High-dimensional Covariance Matrices with Incomplete Data*

PubMed Central

Cai, T. Tony; Zhang, Anru

2016-01-01

Missing data occur frequently in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we consider estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices in the presence of missing observations under a general missing completely at random model in the sense that the missingness is not dependent on the values of the data. Based on incomplete data, estimators for bandable and sparse covariance matrices are proposed and their theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. Minimax rates of convergence are established under the spectral norm loss and the proposed estimators are shown to be rate-optimal under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the estimators perform well numerically. The methods are also illustrated through an application to data from four ovarian cancer studies. The key technical tools developed in this paper are of independent interest and potentially useful for a range of related problems in high-dimensional statistical inference with missing data. PMID:27777471

Minimax Rate-optimal Estimation of High-dimensional Covariance Matrices with Incomplete Data.

PubMed

Cai, T Tony; Zhang, Anru

2016-09-01

Missing data occur frequently in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we consider estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices in the presence of missing observations under a general missing completely at random model in the sense that the missingness is not dependent on the values of the data. Based on incomplete data, estimators for bandable and sparse covariance matrices are proposed and their theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. Minimax rates of convergence are established under the spectral norm loss and the proposed estimators are shown to be rate-optimal under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the estimators perform well numerically. The methods are also illustrated through an application to data from four ovarian cancer studies. The key technical tools developed in this paper are of independent interest and potentially useful for a range of related problems in high-dimensional statistical inference with missing data.

Completing the Three Stages of Doctoral Education: An Event History Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ampaw, Frim D.; Jaeger, Audrey J.

2012-01-01

Doctoral programs have high dropout rates of 43% representing the highest among all post-baccalaureate programs. Cross sectional studies of doctoral students' retention have showed the importance of financial aid in predicting degree completion. These studies however, do not estimate the labor market's effect on doctoral student retention and…

Bioclimatic Thresholds, Thermal Constants and Survival of Mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) in Response to Constant Temperatures on Hibiscus

PubMed Central

Sreedevi, Gudapati; Prasad, Yenumula Gerard; Prabhakar, Mathyam; Rao, Gubbala Ramachandra; Vennila, Sengottaiyan; Venkateswarlu, Bandi

2013-01-01

Temperature-driven development and survival rates of the mealybug, Phenacoccussolenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) were examined at nine constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 27, 30, 32, 35 and 40°C) on hibiscus ( Hibiscus rosa -sinensis L.). Crawlers successfully completed development to adult stage between 15 and 35°C, although their survival was affected at low temperatures. Two linear and four nonlinear models were fitted to describe developmental rates of P . solenopsis as a function of temperature, and for estimating thermal constants and bioclimatic thresholds (lower, optimum and upper temperature thresholds for development: Tmin, Topt and Tmax, respectively). Estimated thresholds between the two linear models were statistically similar. Ikemoto and Takai’s linear model permitted testing the equivalence of lower developmental thresholds for life stages of P . solenopsis reared on two hosts, hibiscus and cotton. Thermal constants required for completion of cumulative development of female and male nymphs and for the whole generation were significantly lower on hibiscus (222.2, 237.0, 308.6 degree-days, respectively) compared to cotton. Three nonlinear models performed better in describing the developmental rate for immature instars and cumulative life stages of female and male and for generation based on goodness-of-fit criteria. The simplified β type distribution function estimated Topt values closer to the observed maximum rates. Thermodynamic SSI model indicated no significant differences in the intrinsic optimum temperature estimates for different geographical populations of P . solenopsis . The estimated bioclimatic thresholds and the observed survival rates of P . solenopsis indicate the species to be high-temperature adaptive, and explained the field abundance of P . solenopsis on its host plants. PMID:24086597

Testing for Seed Quality in Southern Oaks

Treesearch

F.T. Bonner

1984-01-01

Expressions of germination rate, such as peak value (PV) or mean germination time (MGT), provide good estimates of acorn quality, but test completion requires a minimum of 3 weeks. For more rapid estimates, tetrazolium staining is recommended. Some seed test results were significantly correlated with nursery germination of cherrybark and water oaks, but not with...

Joint use of epidemiological and hospital medico-administrative data to estimate prevalence. Application to French data on breast cancer.

PubMed

Colonna, Marc; Mitton, Nicolas; Schott, Anne-Marie; Remontet, Laurent; Olive, Frédéric; Gomez, Frédéric; Iwaz, Jean; Polazzi, Stéphanie; Bossard, Nadine; Trombert, Béatrice

2012-04-01

Estimate complete, limited-duration, and hospital prevalence of breast cancer in a French Département covered by a population-based cancer registry and in whole France using complementary information sources. Incidence data from a cancer registry, national incidence estimations for France, mortality data, and hospital medico-administrative data were used to estimate the three prevalence indices. The methods included a modelling of epidemiological data and a specific process of data extraction from medico-administrative databases. Limited-duration prevalence at 33 years was a proxy for complete prevalence only in patients aged less than 70 years. In 2007 and in women older than 15 years, the limited-duration prevalence at 33 years rate per 100,000 women was estimated at 2372 for Département Isère and 2354 for whole France. The latter rate corresponded to 613,000 women. The highest rate corresponded to women aged 65-74 years (6161 per 100,000 in whole France). About one third of the 33-year limited-duration prevalence cases were diagnosed five years before and about one fourth were hospitalized for breast-cancer-related care (i.e., hospital prevalence). In 2007, the rate of hospitalized women was 557 per 100,000 in whole France. Among the 120,310 women hospitalized for breast-cancer-related care in 2007, about 13% were diagnosed before 2004. Limited-duration prevalence (long- and short-term), and hospital prevalence are complementary indices of cancer prevalence. Their efficient direct or indirect estimations are essential to reflect the burden of the disease and forecast median- and long-term medical, economic, and social patient needs, especially after the initial treatment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The health gap in Mexico, measured through child mortality].

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; Bertozzi, Stefano M

2003-01-01

To estimate the health gap in Mexico, as evidenced by the difference between the observed 1998 mortality rate and the estimated rate and the estimated rate for the same year according to social and economic indicators, with rates from other countries. An econometric model was developed, using the 1998 child mortality rate (CMR) as the dependent variable, and macro-social and economic indicators as independent variables. The model included 70 countries for which complete data were available. The proposed model explained over 90% of the variability in CMR among countries. The expected CMR for Mexico was 22% lower that the observed rate, which represented nearly 20,000 excess deaths. After adjusting for differences in productivity, distribution of wealth, and investment in human capital, the excess child mortality rate suggested efficiency problems in the Mexican health system, at least in relation to services intended to reduce child mortality. The English version of this paper is available at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html.

GLACiAR: GaLAxy survey Completeness AlgoRithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Daniela; Trenti, Michele; Mutch, Simon; Oesch, Pascal

2018-05-01

GLACiAR (GaLAxy survey Completeness AlgoRithm) estimates the completeness and selection functions in galaxy surveys. Tailored for multiband imaging surveys aimed at searching for high-redshift galaxies through the Lyman Break technique, the code can nevertheless be applied broadly. GLACiAR generates artificial galaxies that follow Sérsic profiles with different indexes and with customizable size, redshift and spectral energy distribution properties, adds them to input images, and measures the recovery rate.

Estimation and identification study for flexible vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jazwinski, A. H.; Englar, T. S., Jr.

1973-01-01

Techniques are studied for the estimation of rigid body and bending states and the identification of model parameters associated with the single-axis attitude dynamics of a flexible vehicle. This problem is highly nonlinear but completely observable provided sufficient attitude and attitude rate data is available and provided all system bending modes are excited in the observation interval. A sequential estimator tracks the system states in the presence of model parameter errors. A batch estimator identifies all model parameters with high accuracy.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

PubMed

2017-09-16

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Rater variables associated with ITER ratings.

PubMed

Paget, Michael; Wu, Caren; McIlwrick, Joann; Woloschuk, Wayne; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2013-10-01

Advocates of holistic assessment consider the ITER a more authentic way to assess performance. But this assessment format is subjective and, therefore, susceptible to rater bias. Here our objective was to study the association between rater variables and ITER ratings. In this observational study our participants were clerks at the University of Calgary and preceptors who completed online ITERs between February 2008 and July 2009. Our outcome variable was global rating on the ITER (rated 1-5), and we used a generalized estimating equation model to identify variables associated with this rating. Students were rated "above expected level" or "outstanding" on 66.4 % of 1050 online ITERs completed during the study period. Two rater variables attenuated ITER ratings: the log transformed time taken to complete the ITER [β = -0.06, 95 % confidence interval (-0.10, -0.02), p = 0.002], and the number of ITERs that a preceptor completed over the time period of the study [β = -0.008 (-0.02, -0.001), p = 0.02]. In this study we found evidence of leniency bias that resulted in two thirds of students being rated above expected level of performance. This leniency bias appeared to be attenuated by delay in ITER completion, and was also blunted in preceptors who rated more students. As all biases threaten the internal validity of the assessment process, further research is needed to confirm these and other sources of rater bias in ITER ratings, and to explore ways of limiting their impact.

Updating the evolutionary history of Carnivora (Mammalia): a new species-level supertree complete with divergence time estimates

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Although it has proven to be an important foundation for investigations of carnivoran ecology, biology and evolution, the complete species-level supertree for Carnivora of Bininda-Emonds et al. is showing its age. Additional, largely molecular sequence data are now available for many species and the advancement of computer technology means that many of the limitations of the original analysis can now be avoided. We therefore sought to provide an updated estimate of the phylogenetic relationships within all extant Carnivora, again using supertree analysis to be able to analyze as much of the global phylogenetic database for the group as possible. Results In total, 188 source trees were combined, representing 114 trees from the literature together with 74 newly constructed gene trees derived from nearly 45,000 bp of sequence data from GenBank. The greater availability of sequence data means that the new supertree is almost completely resolved and also better reflects current phylogenetic opinion (for example, supporting a monophyletic Mephitidae, Eupleridae and Prionodontidae; placing Nandinia binotata as sister to the remaining Feliformia). Following an initial rapid radiation, diversification rate analyses indicate a downturn in the net speciation rate within the past three million years as well as a possible increase some 18.0 million years ago; numerous diversification rate shifts within the order were also identified. Conclusions Together, the two carnivore supertrees remain the only complete phylogenetic estimates for all extant species and the new supertree, like the old one, will form a key tool in helping us to further understand the biology of this charismatic group of carnivores. PMID:22369503

Coding completeness and quality of relative survival-related variables in the National Program of Cancer Registries Cancer Surveillance System, 1995-2008.

PubMed

Wilson, Reda J; O'Neil, M E; Ntekop, E; Zhang, Kevin; Ren, Y

2014-01-01

Calculating accurate estimates of cancer survival is important for various analyses of cancer patient care and prognosis. Current US survival rates are estimated based on data from the National Cancer Institute's (NCI's) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End RESULTS (SEER) program, covering approximately 28 percent of the US population. The National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) covers about 96 percent of the US population. Using a population-based database with greater US population coverage to calculate survival rates at the national, state, and regional levels can further enhance the effective monitoring of cancer patient care and prognosis in the United States. The first step is to establish the coding completeness and coding quality of the NPCR data needed for calculating survival rates and conducting related validation analyses. Using data from the NPCR-Cancer Surveillance System (CSS) from 1995 through 2008, we assessed coding completeness and quality on 26 data elements that are needed to calculate cancer relative survival estimates and conduct related analyses. Data elements evaluated consisted of demographic, follow-up, prognostic, and cancer identification variables. Analyses were performed showing trends of these variables by diagnostic year, state of residence at diagnosis, and cancer site. Mean overall percent coding completeness by each NPCR central cancer registry averaged across all data elements and diagnosis years ranged from 92.3 percent to 100 percent. RESULTS showing the mean percent coding completeness for the relative survival-related variables in NPCR data are presented. All data elements but 1 have a mean coding completeness greater than 90 percent as was the mean completeness by data item group type. Statistically significant differences in coding completeness were found in the ICD revision number, cause of death, vital status, and date of last contact variables when comparing diagnosis years. The majority of data items had a coding quality greater than 90 percent, with exceptions found in cause of death, follow-up source, and the SEER Summary Stage 1977, and SEER Summary Stage 2000. Percent coding completeness and quality are very high for variables in the NPCR-CSS that are covariates to calculating relative survival. NPCR provides the opportunity to calculate relative survival that may be more generalizable to the US population.

Mitogenome Phylogenetics: The Impact of Using Single Regions and Partitioning Schemes on Topology, Substitution Rate and Divergence Time Estimation

PubMed Central

Duchêne, Sebastián; Archer, Frederick I.; Vilstrup, Julia; Caballero, Susana; Morin, Phillip A.

2011-01-01

The availability of mitochondrial genome sequences is growing as a result of recent technological advances in molecular biology. In phylogenetic analyses, the complete mitogenome is increasingly becoming the marker of choice, usually providing better phylogenetic resolution and precision relative to traditional markers such as cytochrome b (CYTB) and the control region (CR). In some cases, the differences in phylogenetic estimates between mitogenomic and single-gene markers have yielded incongruent conclusions. By comparing phylogenetic estimates made from different genes, we identified the most informative mitochondrial regions and evaluated the minimum amount of data necessary to reproduce the same results as the mitogenome. We compared results among individual genes and the mitogenome for recently published complete mitogenome datasets of selected delphinids (Delphinidae) and killer whales (genus Orcinus). Using Bayesian phylogenetic methods, we investigated differences in estimation of topologies, divergence dates, and clock-like behavior among genes for both datasets. Although the most informative regions were not the same for each taxonomic group (COX1, CYTB, ND3 and ATP6 for Orcinus, and ND1, COX1 and ND4 for Delphinidae), in both cases they were equivalent to less than a quarter of the complete mitogenome. This suggests that gene information content can vary among groups, but can be adequately represented by a portion of the complete sequence. Although our results indicate that complete mitogenomes provide the highest phylogenetic resolution and most precise date estimates, a minimum amount of data can be selected using our approach when the complete sequence is unavailable. Studies based on single genes can benefit from the addition of a few more mitochondrial markers, producing topologies and date estimates similar to those obtained using the entire mitogenome. PMID:22073275

Timeliness and completeness of measles vaccination among children in rural areas of Guangxi, China: A stratified three-stage cluster survey.

PubMed

Tang, Xianyan; Geater, Alan; McNeil, Edward; Zhou, Hongxia; Deng, Qiuyun; Dong, Aihu

2017-07-01

Large-scale outbreaks of measles occurred in 2013 and 2014 in rural Guangxi, a region in Southwest China with high coverage for measles-containing vaccine (MCV). This study aimed to estimate the timely vaccination coverage, the timely-and-complete vaccination coverage, and the median delay period for MCV among children aged 18-54 months in rural Guangxi. Based on quartiles of measles incidence during 2011-2013, a stratified three-stage cluster survey was conducted from June through August 2015. Using weighted estimation and finite population correction, vaccination coverage and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Weighted Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to estimate the median delay periods for the first (MCV1) and second (MCV2) doses of the vaccine. A total of 1216 children were surveyed. The timely vaccination coverage rate was 58.4% (95% CI, 54.9%-62.0%) for MCV1, and 76.9% (95% CI, 73.6%-80.0%) for MCV2. The timely-and-complete vaccination coverage rate was 47.4% (95% CI, 44.0%-51.0%). The median delay period was 32 (95% CI, 27-38) days for MCV1, and 159 (95% CI, 118-195) days for MCV2. The timeliness and completeness of measles vaccination was low, and the median delay period was long among children in rural Guangxi. Incorporating the timeliness and completeness into official routine vaccination coverage statistics may help appraise the coverage of vaccination in China. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors Affecting Specific-Capacity Tests and their Application--A Study of Six Low-Yielding Wells in Fractured-Bedrock Aquifers in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.

2010-01-01

This report by the U.S. Geological Survey, prepared in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Mining and Reclamation, evaluates factors affecting the application of specific-capacity tests in six low-yielding water wells in areas of coal mining or quarrying in Pennsylvania. Factors such as pumping rate, duration of pumping, aquifer properties, wellbore storage, and turbulent flow were assessed by theoretical analysis and by completing multiple well tests, selected to be representative of low-yielding household-supply wells in areas of active coal mining or quarrying. All six wells were completed in fractured-bedrock aquifers--five in coal-bearing shale, siltstone, sandstone, limestone, and coal of Pennsylvanian and Permian age and one in limestone of Cambrian age. The wells were pumped 24 times during 2007-09 at rates from 0.57 to 14 gallons per minute during tests lasting from 22 to 240 minutes. Geophysical logging and video surveys also were completed to determine the depth, casing length, and location of water-yielding zones in each of the test wells, and seasonal water-level changes were measured during 2007-09 by continuous monitoring at each well. The tests indicated that specific-capacity values were reproducible within about ? 20 percent if the tests were completed at the same pumping rate and duration. A change in pumping duration, pumping rate, or saturated aquifer thickness can have a substantial effect on the comparability of repeated tests. The largest effect was caused by a change in aquifer thickness in well YO 1222 causing specific capacity from repeated tests to vary by a factor of about 50. An increase in the duration of pumping from 60 to 180 minutes caused as much as a 62 percent decrease in specific capacity. The effect of differing pumping rates on specific capacity depends on whether or not the larger rate causes the water level in the well to fall below a major water-yielding zone; when this decline happened at well CA 462, specific capacity was reduced by about 63 percent. Estimates of the maximum yield for low-yielding wells that are computed by multiplying the available drawdown by the specific-capacity value may contain large errors if the wells were pumped at low rates that do not cause much water-level drawdown. The estimates of yield are likely to be too large because the effects of lowering the water level in the well below water-yielding zones have not been incorporated. Better yield estimates can be made by the use of step-drawdown tests or by over-pumping at a rate large enough to dewater most of the wellbore. The maximum well yield, after overpumping, can be estimated from the rate of water-level recovery or by subtracting the incremental rate of change of borehole storage at the end of the test from the pumping rate.

Estimated rates of groundwater recharge to the Chicot, Evangeline and Jasper aquifers by using environmental tracers in Montgomery and adjacent counties, Texas, 2008 and 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oden, Timothy D.; Truini, Margot

2013-01-01

Recharge rates estimated from environmental tracer data are dependent upon several hydrogeologic variables and have inherent uncertainties. By using the recharge estimates derived from samples collected from 14 wells completed in the Chicot aquifer for which apparent groundwater ages could be determined, recharge to the Chicot aquifer ranged from 0.2 to 7.2 inches (in.) per year (yr). Based on data from one well, estimated recharge to the unconfined zone of the Evangeline aquifer (outcrop) was 0.1 in./yr. Based on data collected from eight wells, estimated rates of recharge to the confined zone of the Evangeline aquifer ranged from less than 0.1 to 2.8 in./yr. Based on data from one well, estimated recharge to the unconfined zone of the Jasper aquifer (outcrop) was 0.5 in./yr. Based on data collected from nine wells, estimated rates of recharge to the confined zone of the Jasper aquifer ranged from less than 0.1 to 0.1 in./yr. The complexity of the hydrogeology in the area, uncertainty in the conceptual model, and numerical assumptions required in the determination of the recharge rates all pose limitations and need to be considered when evaluating these data on a countywide or regional scale. The estimated recharge rates calculated for this study are specific to each well location and should not be extrapolated or inferred as a countywide average. Local variations in the hydrogeology and surficial conditions can affect the recharge rate at a local scale.

The Reliability and Validity of Using Regression Residuals to Measure Institutional Effectiveness in Promoting Degree Completion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horn, Aaron S.; Lee, Giljae

2016-01-01

A relatively simple way of measuring institutional effectiveness in relation to degree completion is to estimate the difference between an actual and predicted graduation rate, but the reliability and validity of this method have not been thoroughly examined. Longitudinal data were obtained from IPEDS for both public and private not-for-profit…

The Likelihood of Completing a VET Qualification: A Model-Based Approach. Technical Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mark, Kevin; Karmel, Tom

2010-01-01

This paper estimates vocational education and training (VET) course-completion rates, in order to fill a gap in performance measures for the VET sector. The technique the authors use is to track all VET course enrolments within a three-year window, centred on the year of interest. Then, using an absorbing Markov chain model for a VET course…

A systematic review of community-to-facility neonatal referral completion rates in Africa and Asia.

PubMed

Kozuki, Naoko; Guenther, Tanya; Vaz, Lara; Moran, Allisyn; Soofi, Sajid B; Kayemba, Christine Nalwadda; Peterson, Stefan S; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Khanal, Sudhir; Tielsch, James M; Doherty, Tanya; Nsibande, Duduzile; Lawn, Joy E; Wall, Stephen

2015-09-30

An estimated 2.8 million neonatal deaths occur annually worldwide. The vulnerability of newborns makes the timeliness of seeking and receiving care critical for neonatal survival and prevention of long-term sequelae. To better understand the role active referrals by community health workers play in neonatal careseeking, we synthesize data on referral completion rates for neonates with danger signs predictive of mortality or major morbidity in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted in May 2014 of the following databases: Medline-PubMed, Embase, and WHO databases. We also searched grey literature. In addition, an investigator group was established to identify unpublished data on newborn referral and completion rates. Inquiries were made to the network of research groups supported by Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives project and other relevant research groups. Three Sub-Saharan African and five South Asian studies reported data on community-to-facility referral completion rates. The studies varied on factors such as referral rates, the assessed danger signs, frequency of home visits in the neonatal period, and what was done to facilitate referrals. Neonatal referral completion rates ranged from 34 to 97 %, with the median rate of 74 %. Four studies reported data on the early neonatal period; early neonatal completion rates ranged from 46 to 97 %, with a median of 70 %. The definition of referral completion differed by studies, in aspects such as where the newborns were referred to and what was considered timely completion. Existing literature reports a wide range of neonatal referral completion rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia following active illness surveillance. Interpreting these referral completion rates is challenging due to the great variation in study design and context. Often, what qualifies as referral and/or referral completion is poorly defined, which makes it difficult to aggregate existing data to draw appropriate conclusions that can inform programs. Further research is necessary to continue highlighting ways for programs, governments, and policymakers to best aid families in low-resource settings in protecting their newborns from major health consequences.

Assisted reproductive technology in Australia and New Zealand: cumulative live birth rates as measures of success.

PubMed

Chambers, Georgina M; Paul, Repon C; Harris, Katie; Fitzgerald, Oisin; Boothroyd, Clare V; Rombauts, Luk; Chapman, Michael G; Jorm, Louisa

2017-08-07

To estimate cumulative live birth rates (CLBRs) following repeated assisted reproductive technology (ART) ovarian stimulation cycles, including all fresh and frozen/thaw embryo transfers (complete cycles). Prospective follow-up of 56 652 women commencing ART in Australian and New Zealand during 2009-2012, and followed until 2014 or the first treatment-dependent live birth. CLBRs and cycle-specific live birth rates were calculated for up to eight cycles, stratified by the age of the women (< 30, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, > 44 years). Conservative CLBRs assumed that women discontinuing treatment had no chance of achieving a live birth if had they continued treatment; optimal CLBRs assumed that they would have had the same chance as women who continued treatment. The overall CLBR was 32.7% (95% CI, 32.2-33.1%) in the first cycle, rising by the eighth cycle to 54.3% (95% CI, 53.9-54.7%) (conservative) and 77.2% (95% CI, 76.5-77.9%) (optimal). The CLBR decreased with age and number of complete cycles. For women who commenced ART treatment before 30 years of age, the CLBR for the first complete cycle was 43.7% (95% CI, 42.6-44.7%), rising to 69.2% (95% CI, 68.2-70.1%) (conservative) and 92.8% (95% CI, 91.6-94.0) (optimal) for the seventh cycle. For women aged 40-44 years, the CLBR was 10.7% (95% CI, 10.1-11.3%) for the first complete cycle, rising to 21.0% (95% CI, 20.2-21.8%) (conservative) and 37.9% (95% CI, 35.9-39.9%) (optimal) for the eighth cycle. CLBRs based on complete cycles are meaningful estimates of ART success, reflecting contemporary clinical practice and encouraging safe practice. These estimates can be used when counselling patients and to inform public policy on ART treatment.

Address-based versus random-digit-dial surveys: comparison of key health and risk indicators.

PubMed

Link, Michael W; Battaglia, Michael P; Frankel, Martin R; Osborn, Larry; Mokdad, Ali H

2006-11-15

Use of random-digit dialing (RDD) for conducting health surveys is increasingly problematic because of declining participation rates and eroding frame coverage. Alternative survey modes and sampling frames may improve response rates and increase the validity of survey estimates. In a 2005 pilot study conducted in six states as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the authors administered a mail survey to selected household members sampled from addresses in a US Postal Service database. The authors compared estimates based on data from the completed mail surveys (n = 3,010) with those from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone surveys (n = 18,780). The mail survey data appeared reasonably complete, and estimates based on data from the two survey modes were largely equivalent. Differences found, such as differences in the estimated prevalences of binge drinking (mail = 20.3%, telephone = 13.1%) or behaviors linked to human immunodeficiency virus transmission (mail = 7.1%, telephone = 4.2%), were consistent with previous research showing that, for questions about sensitive behaviors, self-administered surveys generally produce higher estimates than interviewer-administered surveys. The mail survey also provided access to cell-phone-only households and households without telephones, which cannot be reached by means of standard RDD surveys.

Using Tensor Completion Method to Achieving Better Coverage of Traffic State Estimation from Sparse Floating Car Data

PubMed Central

Ran, Bin; Song, Li; Cheng, Yang; Tan, Huachun

2016-01-01

Traffic state estimation from the floating car system is a challenging problem. The low penetration rate and random distribution make available floating car samples usually cover part space and time points of the road networks. To obtain a wide range of traffic state from the floating car system, many methods have been proposed to estimate the traffic state for the uncovered links. However, these methods cannot provide traffic state of the entire road networks. In this paper, the traffic state estimation is transformed to solve a missing data imputation problem, and the tensor completion framework is proposed to estimate missing traffic state. A tensor is constructed to model traffic state in which observed entries are directly derived from floating car system and unobserved traffic states are modeled as missing entries of constructed tensor. The constructed traffic state tensor can represent spatial and temporal correlations of traffic data and encode the multi-way properties of traffic state. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it can fully mine and utilize the multi-dimensional inherent correlations of traffic state. We tested the proposed approach on a well calibrated simulation network. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed approach yield reliable traffic state estimation from very sparse floating car data, particularly when dealing with the floating car penetration rate is below 1%. PMID:27448326

Using Tensor Completion Method to Achieving Better Coverage of Traffic State Estimation from Sparse Floating Car Data.

PubMed

Ran, Bin; Song, Li; Zhang, Jian; Cheng, Yang; Tan, Huachun

2016-01-01

Traffic state estimation from the floating car system is a challenging problem. The low penetration rate and random distribution make available floating car samples usually cover part space and time points of the road networks. To obtain a wide range of traffic state from the floating car system, many methods have been proposed to estimate the traffic state for the uncovered links. However, these methods cannot provide traffic state of the entire road networks. In this paper, the traffic state estimation is transformed to solve a missing data imputation problem, and the tensor completion framework is proposed to estimate missing traffic state. A tensor is constructed to model traffic state in which observed entries are directly derived from floating car system and unobserved traffic states are modeled as missing entries of constructed tensor. The constructed traffic state tensor can represent spatial and temporal correlations of traffic data and encode the multi-way properties of traffic state. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it can fully mine and utilize the multi-dimensional inherent correlations of traffic state. We tested the proposed approach on a well calibrated simulation network. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed approach yield reliable traffic state estimation from very sparse floating car data, particularly when dealing with the floating car penetration rate is below 1%.

Determination of the minimal clinically important difference for seven fatigue measures in rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Pouchot, Jacques; Kherani, Raheem B.; Brant, Rollin; Lacaille, Diane; Lehman, Allen J.; Ensworth, Stephanie; Kopec, Jacek; Esdaile, John M.; Liang, Matthew H.

2008-01-01

Objective To estimate the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of seven measures of fatigue in rheumatoid arthritis. Study Design and Setting A cross-sectional study design based on inter-individual comparisons was used. Six to eight subjects participated in a single meeting and completed seven fatigue questionnaires (nine sessions were organized and 61 subjects participated). After completion of the questionnaires, the subjects had five one-on-one 10-minute conversations with different people in the group to discuss their fatigue. After each conversation, each patient compared their fatigue to their conversational partner’s on a global rating. Ratings were compared to the scores of the fatigue measures to estimate the MCID. Both non-parametric and linear regression analyses were used. Results Non-parametric estimates for the MCID relative to “little more fatigue” tended to be smaller than those for “little less fatigue”. The global MCIDs estimated by linear regression were: FSS 20.2, VT 14.8, MAF 18.7, MFI 16.6, FACIT–F 15.9, CFS 9.9, RS 19.7, for normalized scores (0 to 100). The standardized MCIDs for the seven measures were roughly similar (0.67 to 0.76). Conclusion These estimates of MCID will help to interpret changes observed in a fatigue score and will be critical in estimating sample size requirements. PMID:18359189

Cardiometabolic prevention consultation in the Netherlands: screening uptake and detection of cardiometabolic risk factors and diseases--a pilot study.

PubMed

Van der Meer, Victor; Nielen, Markus M J; Drenthen, Anton J M; Van Vliet, Mieke; Assendelft, Willem J J; Schellevis, Francois G

2013-02-26

Until now, cardiometabolic risk assessment in Dutch primary health care was directed at case-finding, and structured, programmatic prevention is lacking. Therefore, the Prevention Consultation cardiometabolic risk (PC CMR), a stepwise approach to identify and manage patients with cardiometabolic risk factors, was developed. The aim of this study was 1) to evaluate uptake rates of the two steps of the PC CMR, 2) to assess the rates of newly diagnosed hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease and 3) to explore reasons for non-participation. Sixteen general practices throughout the Netherlands were recruited to implement the PC CMR during 6 months. In eight practices eligible patients aged between 45 and 70 years without a cardiometabolic disease were actively invited by a personal letter ('active approach') and in eight other practices eligible patients were informed about the PC CMR only by posters and leaflets in the practice ('passive approach'). Participating patients completed an online risk estimation (first step). Patients estimated as having a high risk according to the online risk estimation were advised to visit their general practice to complete the risk profile with blood pressure measurements and blood tests for cholesterol and glucose and to receive recommendations about risk lowering interventions (second step). The online risk estimation was completed by 521 (33%) and 96 (1%) of patients in the practices with an active and passive approach, respectively. Of these patients 392 (64%) were estimated to have a high risk and were referred to the practice; 142 of 392 (36%) consulted the GP. A total of 31 (22%) newly diagnosed patients were identified. Hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes and chronic kidney disease were diagnosed in 13%, 11%, 1% and 0%, respectively. Privacy risks were the most frequently mentioned reason not to participate. One third of the patients responded to an active invitation to complete an online risk estimation. A passive invitation resulted in only a small number of participating patients. Two third of the participants of the online risk estimation had a high risk, but only one third of them attended the GP office. One in five visiting patients had a diagnosed cardiometabolic risk factor or disease.

Estimating genotype error rates from high-coverage next-generation sequence data.

PubMed

Wall, Jeffrey D; Tang, Ling Fung; Zerbe, Brandon; Kvale, Mark N; Kwok, Pui-Yan; Schaefer, Catherine; Risch, Neil

2014-11-01

Exome and whole-genome sequencing studies are becoming increasingly common, but little is known about the accuracy of the genotype calls made by the commonly used platforms. Here we use replicate high-coverage sequencing of blood and saliva DNA samples from four European-American individuals to estimate lower bounds on the error rates of Complete Genomics and Illumina HiSeq whole-genome and whole-exome sequencing. Error rates for nonreference genotype calls range from 0.1% to 0.6%, depending on the platform and the depth of coverage. Additionally, we found (1) no difference in the error profiles or rates between blood and saliva samples; (2) Complete Genomics sequences had substantially higher error rates than Illumina sequences had; (3) error rates were higher (up to 6%) for rare or unique variants; (4) error rates generally declined with genotype quality (GQ) score, but in a nonlinear fashion for the Illumina data, likely due to loss of specificity of GQ scores greater than 60; and (5) error rates increased with increasing depth of coverage for the Illumina data. These findings, especially (3)-(5), suggest that caution should be taken in interpreting the results of next-generation sequencing-based association studies, and even more so in clinical application of this technology in the absence of validation by other more robust sequencing or genotyping methods. © 2014 Wall et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Self- and other-estimates of multiple abilities in Britain and Turkey: a cross-cultural comparison of subjective ratings of intelligence.

PubMed

Furnham, Adrian; Arteche, Adriane; Chamorro-Premuzic, Tomas; Keser, Askin; Swami, Viren

2009-12-01

This study is part of a programmatic research effort into the determinants of self-assessed abilities. It examined cross-cultural differences in beliefs about intelligence and self- and other-estimated intelligence in two countries at extreme ends of the European continent. In all, 172 British and 272 Turkish students completed a three-part questionnaire where they estimated their parents', partners' and own multiple intelligences (Gardner (10) and Sternberg (3)). They also completed a measure of the 'big five' personality scales and rated six questions about intelligence. The British sample had more experience with IQ tests than the Turks. The majority of participants in both groups did not believe in sex differences in intelligence but did think there were race differences. They also believed that intelligence was primarily inherited. Participants rated their social and emotional intelligence highly (around one standard deviation above the norm). Results suggested that there were more cultural than sex differences in all the ratings, with various interactions mainly due to the British sample differentiating more between the sexes than the Turks. Males rated their overall, verbal, logical, spatial, creative and practical intelligence higher than females. Turks rated their musical, body-kinesthetic, interpersonal and intrapersonal intelligence as well as existential, naturalistic, emotional, creative, and practical intelligence higher than the British. There was evidence of participants rating their fathers' intelligence on most factors higher than their mothers'. Factor analysis of the ten Gardner intelligences yield two clear factors: cognitive and social intelligence. The first factor was impacted by sex but not culture; it was the other way round for the second factor. Regressions showed that five factors predicted overall estimates: sex (male), age (older), test experience (has done tests), extraversion (strong) and openness (strong). Results are discussed in terms of the growing literature in the field.

The black gender gap in educational attainment: historical trends and racial comparisons.

PubMed

McDaniel, Anne; DiPrete, Thomas A; Buchmann, Claudia; Shwed, Uri

2011-08-01

It is often asserted that the gender gap in educational attainment is larger for blacks than whites, but historical trends comparing the black and white gender gap have received surprisingly little attention. Analysis of historical data from the U.S. census IPUMS samples shows that the gender gap in college completion has evolved differently for whites and blacks. Historically, the female advantage in educational attainment among blacks is linked to more favorable labor market opportunities and stronger incentives for employment for educated black women. Blacks, particularly black males, still lag far behind whites in their rates of college completion, but the striking educational gains of white women have caused the racial patterns of gender differences in college completion rates to grow more similar over time. While some have linked the disadvantaged position of black males to their high risk of incarceration, our estimates suggest that incarceration has a relatively small impact on the black gender gap and the racial gap in college completion rates for males in the United States.

HPV literacy and its link to initiation and completion of HPV vaccine among young adults in Minnesota.

PubMed

Lee, H Y; Lee, J; Henning-Smith, C; Choi, J

2017-11-01

This study identifies whether, and how, human papillomavirus (HPV) literacy and predisposing, enabling, and need factors are associated with HPV vaccine initiation and completion among young adults in Minnesota. Cross-sectional survey design. Using a sample of 170 young adults (aged 18-26 years), we used logistic regression models to identify factors associated with HPV vaccination initiation and completion, including HPV literacy, adjusting for relevant predisposing, enabling, and need factors. Consistent with national estimates, we found relatively low rates of HPV vaccination initiation (46%) and completion (36%). Better HPV literacy was significantly associated with higher rates of both initiation and completion, as was being female and having an annual check-up. Being married/partnered was significantly associated with lower odds of HPV vaccination. Public health programs, policy-makers, and healthcare providers can use these results to increase HPV vaccination rates by making concerted efforts to improve HPV vaccination literacy through individual and public education campaigns and by improving access to annual check-ups. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time estimation predicts mathematical intelligence.

PubMed

Kramer, Peter; Bressan, Paola; Grassi, Massimo

2011-01-01

Performing mental subtractions affects time (duration) estimates, and making time estimates disrupts mental subtractions. This interaction has been attributed to the concurrent involvement of time estimation and arithmetic with general intelligence and working memory. Given the extant evidence of a relationship between time and number, here we test the stronger hypothesis that time estimation correlates specifically with mathematical intelligence, and not with general intelligence or working-memory capacity. Participants performed a (prospective) time estimation experiment, completed several subtests of the WAIS intelligence test, and self-rated their mathematical skill. For five different durations, we found that time estimation correlated with both arithmetic ability and self-rated mathematical skill. Controlling for non-mathematical intelligence (including working memory capacity) did not change the results. Conversely, correlations between time estimation and non-mathematical intelligence either were nonsignificant, or disappeared after controlling for mathematical intelligence. We conclude that time estimation specifically predicts mathematical intelligence. On the basis of the relevant literature, we furthermore conclude that the relationship between time estimation and mathematical intelligence is likely due to a common reliance on spatial ability.

Attitude and Trajectory Estimation Using Earth Magnetic Field Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deutschmann, Julie; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.

1996-01-01

The magnetometer has long been a reliable, inexpensive sensor used in spacecraft momentum management and attitude estimation. Recent studies show an increased accuracy potential for magnetometer-only attitude estimation systems. Since the Earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computer and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. Traditionally, satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate system, using different measurement data. Recently, trajectory estimation for low earth orbit satellites was successfully demonstrated in ground software using only magnetometer data. This work proposes a single augmented extended Kalman Filter to simultaneously and autonomously estimate both spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from a magnetometer and either dynamically determined rates or gyro-measured body rates.

A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010. NBER Working Paper No. 15902

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barro, Robert J.; Lee, Jong-Wha

2010-01-01

Our panel data set on educational attainment has been updated for 146 countries from 1950 to 2010. The data are disaggregated by sex and by 5-year age intervals. We have improved the accuracy of estimation by using information from consistent census data, disaggregated by age group, along with new estimates of mortality rates and completion rates…

Prevalence of self-rated visual impairment among adults with diabetes.

PubMed

Saaddine, J B; Narayan, K M; Engelgau, M M; Aubert, R E; Klein, R; Beckles, G L

1999-08-01

This study estimated the prevalence of self-rated visual impairment among US adults with diabetes and identified correlates of such impairment. Self-reported data from the 1995 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey of adults 18 years and older with diabetes were analyzed. Correlates of visual impairment were examined by multiple logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of self-rated visual impairment was 24.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 22.3%, 27.3%). Among insulin users, multivariable-adjusted odds ratios were 4.9 (95% CI = 2.6, 9.2) for those who had not completed high school and 1.8 (95% CI = 1.0, 2.8) for those who had completed high school compared with those with higher levels of education. Comparable estimates of odds ratios for nonusers of insulin were 2.2 (95% CI = 1.4, 3.4) and 1.3 (95% CI = 0.9, 2.0), respectively. Among nonusers, the adjusted odds for minority adults were 2.4 (95% CI = 1.0, 3.7) times the odds for non-Hispanic Whites. By these data, 1.6 million US adults with diabetes reported having some degree of visual impairment. Future research on the specific causes of visual impairment may help in estimating the avoidable public health burden.

Frequency of ICD-10 factitious disorder: survey of senior hospital consultants and physicians in private practice.

PubMed

Fliege, Herbert; Grimm, Anne; Eckhardt-Henn, Annegret; Gieler, Uwe; Martin, Katharina; Klapp, Burghard F

2007-01-01

The authors surveyed physicians for frequency estimates of factitious disorder among their patients. Twenty-six physicians in independent practice and 83 senior hospital consultants in internal medicine, surgery, neurology, and dermatology participated. They completed a questionnaire including the estimated 1-year prevalence of factitious disorder among their patients. Frequency estimates averaged 1.3% (0.0001%-15%). The number of patients treated correlated negatively with frequency estimates. Dermatologists and neurologists gave the highest estimations. One-third of the physicians rated themselves as insufficiently informed. Frequency estimations did not differ by information level. The estimated frequency is substantial and comparable to earlier findings. Authors discuss clinical implications.

Doctoral Supervision in Virtual Spaces: A Review of Research of Web-Based Tools to Develop Collaborative Supervision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maor, Dorit; Ensor, Jason D.; Fraser, Barry J.

2016-01-01

Supervision of doctoral students needs to be improved to increase completion rates, reduce attrition rates (estimated to be at 25% or more) and improve quality of research. The current literature review aimed to explore the contribution that technology can make to higher degree research supervision. The articles selected included empirical studies…

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 1024 - Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., including for application, processing, or underwriting. The amount stated in Block 1 is subject to zero... chosen is zero), the mortgage broker must insert “0” in Block 2 and may check either the box indicating... subject to zero tolerance while the interest rate is locked, i.e., any credit for the interest rate chosen...

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 1024 - Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., including for application, processing, or underwriting. The amount stated in Block 1 is subject to zero... chosen is zero), the mortgage broker must insert “0” in Block 2 and may check either the box indicating... subject to zero tolerance while the interest rate is locked, i.e., any credit for the interest rate chosen...

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 1024 - Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., including for application, processing, or underwriting. The amount stated in Block 1 is subject to zero... chosen is zero), the mortgage broker must insert “0” in Block 2 and may check either the box indicating... subject to zero tolerance while the interest rate is locked, i.e., any credit for the interest rate chosen...

Screening for prostate cancer: estimating the magnitude of overdetection

PubMed Central

McGregor, M; Hanley, J A; Boivin, J F; McLean, R G

1998-01-01

BACKGROUND: No randomized controlled trial of prostate cancer screening has been reported and none is likely to be completed in the near future. In the absence of direct evidence, the decision to screen must therefore be based on estimates of benefits and risks. The main risk of screening is overdetection--the detection of cancer that, if left untreated, would not cause death. In this study the authors estimate the level of overdetection that might result from annual screening of men aged 50-70. METHODS: The annual rate of lethal screen-detectable cancer (detectable cancer that would prove fatal before age 85 if left untreated) was calculated from the observed prostate cancer mortality rate in Quebec; the annual rate of all cases of screen-detectable prostate cancer was calculated from 2 recent screening studies. RESULTS: The annual rate of lethal screen-detectable prostate cancer was estimated to be 1.3 per 1000 men. The annual rate of all cases of screen-detectable prostate cancer was estimated to be 8.0 per 1000 men. The estimated case-fatality rate among men up to 85 years of age was 16% (1.3/8.0) (sensitivity analysis 13% to 22%). INTERPRETATION: Of every 100 men with screen-detected prostate cancer, only 16 on average (13 to 22) could have their lives extended by surgery, since the prostate cancer would not cause death before age 85 in the remaining 84 (78 to 87). PMID:9861205

A Complete Set of Radiative and Auger Rates for K-vacancy States in Fe XVIII-Fe XXV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmeri, P.; Mendoza, C.; Kallman, T. R.; Bautista, M. A.

2002-01-01

A complete set of level energies, wavelengths, A-values, and total and partial Auger rates have been computed for transitions involving the K-vacancy states within the n = 2 complex of Fe XVIII-Fe XXV. Three different standard numerical packages are used for this purpose, namely AUTOSTRUCTURE, the Breit-Pauli R-matrix suite (BPRM) and HFR, which allow reliable estimates of the physical effects involved and of the accuracy of the resulting data sets. It is found that the Breit interaction must be always taken into account as the contributions to the small A-values and partial Auger rates does not decrease with electron occupancy. Semi-empirical adjustments can also lead to large differences in both the radiative and Auger decay data of strongly mixed levels. Several experimental energy levels and wavelengths are questioned, and significant discrepancies are found with previously computed decay rates that are attributed to numerical problems. The statistical accuracy of the present level energies and wavelengths is ranked at plus or minus 3 eV and plus or minus 2 mAngstroms, respectively, whereas that for A-values and partial Auger rates greater than 10(exp 13) per second is estimated at better than 20%.

Tuberculosis among the homeless, United States, 1994-2010.

PubMed

Bamrah, S; Yelk Woodruff, R S; Powell, K; Ghosh, S; Kammerer, J S; Haddad, M B

2013-11-01

1) To describe homeless persons diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) during the period 1994-2010, and 2) to estimate a TB incidence rate among homeless persons in the United States. TB cases reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System were analyzed by origin of birth. Incidence rates were calculated using the US Department of Housing and Urban Development homeless population estimates. Analysis of genotyping results identified clustering as a marker for transmission among homeless TB patients. Of 270,948 reported TB cases, 16,527 (6%) were homeless. The TB incidence rate among homeless persons ranged from 36 to 47 cases per 100,000 population in 2006-2010. Homeless TB patients had over twice the odds of not completing treatment and of belonging to a genotype cluster. US- and foreign-born homeless TB patients had respectively 8 and 12 times the odds of substance abuse. Compared to the general population, homeless persons had an approximately 10-fold increase in TB incidence, were less likely to complete treatment and more likely to abuse substances. Public health outreach should target homeless populations to reduce the excess burden of TB in this population.

Investigating cognitive ability and self-reported driving performance of post-stroke adults in a driving simulator.

PubMed

Blane, Alison; Falkmer, Torbjörn; Lee, Hoe C; Dukic Willstrand, Tania

2018-01-01

Background Safe driving is a complex activity that requires calibration. This means the driver can accurately assess the level of task demand required for task completion and can accurately evaluate their driving capability. There is much debate on the calibration ability of post-stroke drivers. Objectives The aim of this study was to assess the cognition, self-rated performance, and estimation of task demand in a driving simulator with post-stroke drivers and controls. Methods A between-groups study design was employed, which included a post-stroke driver group and a group of similarly aged older control drivers. Both groups were observed driving in two simulator-based driving scenarios and asked to complete the NASA Task Load Index (TLX) to assess their perceived task demand and self-rate their driving performance. Participants also completed a battery of psychometric tasks to assess attention and executive function, which was used to determine whether post-stroke cognitive impairment impacted on calibration. Results There was no difference in the amount of perceived task demand required to complete the driving task. Despite impairments in cognition, the post-stroke drivers were not more likely to over-estimate their driving abilities than controls. On average, the post-stroke drivers self-rated themselves more poorly than the controls and this rating was related to cognitive ability. Conclusion This study suggests that post-stroke drivers may be aware of their deficits and adjust their driving behavior. Furthermore, using self-performance measures alongside a driving simulator and cognitive assessments may provide complementary fitness-to-drive assessments, as well as rehabilitation tools during post-stroke recovery.

Effects of mass airflow rate through an open-circuit gas quantification system when measuring carbon emissions.

PubMed

Gunter, Stacey A; Bradford, James A; Moffet, Corey A

2017-01-01

Methane (CH) and carbon dioxide (CO) represent 11 and 81%, respectively, of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural CH emissions account for approximately 43% of all anthropogenic CH emissions. Most agricultural CH emissions are attributed to enteric fermentation within ruminant livestock; hence, the heightened interest in quantifying and mitigating this source. The automated, open-circuit gas quantification system (GQS; GreenFeed, C-Lock, Inc., Rapid City, SD) evaluated here can be placed in a pasture with grazing cattle and can measure their CH and CO emissions with spot sampling. However, improper management of the GQS can have an erroneous effect on emission estimates. One factor affecting the quality of emission estimates is the airflow rates through the GQS to ensure a complete capture of the breath cloud emitted by the animal. It is hypothesized that at lower airflow rates this cloud will be incompletely captured. To evaluate the effect of airflow rate through the GQS on emission estimates, a data set was evaluated with 758 CO and CH emission estimates with a range in airflows of 10.7 to 36.6 L/s. When airflow through the GQS was between 26.0 and 36.6 L/s, CO and CH emission estimates were not affected ( = 0.14 and 0.05, respectively). When airflow rates were less than 26.0 L/s, CO and CH emission estimates were lower and decreased as airflow rate decreased ( < 0.0001). We hypothesize that when airflow through the GQS decreases below 26 L/s, breath capture was incomplete and CO and CH emissions are underestimated. Maintaining mass airflow through a GQS at rates greater than 26 L/s is important for producing high quality CO and CH emission estimates.

Deformation Mechanisms and High Strain Rate Properties of Magnesium (Mg) and Mg Alloys

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources...gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or...conference in June 2010 (2). A comprehensive historical review of the U.S. military applications of Mg alloys has recently been published (3

Prevalence estimates for primary brain tumors in the United States by age, gender, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Freels, Sally; Kim, Yoonsang; Davis, Faith G

2010-06-01

Prevalence is the best indicator of cancer survivorship in the population, but few studies have focused on brain tumor prevalence because of previous data limitations. Hence, the full impact of primary brain tumors on the healthcare system in the United States is not completely described. The present study provides an estimate of the prevalence of disease in the United States, updating an earlier prevalence study. Incidence data for 2004 and survival data for 1985-2005 were obtained by the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States from selected regions, modeled under 2 different survival assumptions, to estimate prevalence rates for the year 2004 and projected estimates for 2010. The overall incidence rate for primary brain tumors was 18.1 per 100 000 person-years with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year observed survival rates of 62%, 54%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. On the basis of the sum of nonmalignant and averaged malignant estimates, the overall prevalence rate of individuals with a brain tumor was estimated to be 209.0 per 100 000 in 2004 and 221.8 per 100 000 in 2010. The female prevalence rate (264.8 per 100 000) was higher than that in males (158.7 per 100 000). The averaged prevalence rate for malignant tumors (42.5 per 100 000) was lower than the prevalence for nonmalignant tumors (166.5 per 100 000). This study provides estimates of the 2004 (n = 612 770) and 2010 (n = 688 096) expected number of individuals living with primary brain tumor diagnoses in the United States, providing more current and robust estimates for aiding healthcare planning and patient advocacy for an aging US population.

Allowing Physicians to Choose the Value of Compensation for Participation in a Web-Based Survey: Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Turnbull, Alison E; O'Connor, Cristi L; Lau, Bryan; Halpern, Scott D; Needham, Dale M

2015-07-29

Survey response rates among physicians are declining, and determining an appropriate level of compensation to motivate participation poses a major challenge. To estimate the effect of permitting intensive care physicians to select their preferred level of compensation for completing a short Web-based survey on physician (1) response rate, (2) survey completion rate, (3) time to response, and (4) time spent completing the survey. A total of 1850 US intensivists from an existing database were randomized to receive a survey invitation email with or without an Amazon.com incentive available to the first 100 respondents. The incentive could be instantly redeemed for an amount chosen by the respondent, up to a maximum of US $50. The overall response rate was 35.90% (630/1755). Among the 35.4% (111/314) of eligible participants choosing the incentive, 80.2% (89/111) selected the maximum value. Among intensivists offered an incentive, the response was 6.0% higher (95% CI 1.5-10.5, P=.01), survey completion was marginally greater (807/859, 94.0% vs 892/991, 90.0%; P=.06), and the median number of days to survey response was shorter (0.8, interquartile range [IQR] 0.2-14.4 vs 6.6, IQR 0.3-22.3; P=.001), with no difference in time spent completing the survey. Permitting intensive care physicians to determine compensation level for completing a short Web-based survey modestly increased response rate and substantially decreased response time without decreasing the time spent on survey completion.

Allowing Physicians to Choose the Value of Compensation for Participation in a Web-Based Survey: Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Cristi L; Lau, Bryan; Halpern, Scott D; Needham, Dale M

2015-01-01

Background Survey response rates among physicians are declining, and determining an appropriate level of compensation to motivate participation poses a major challenge. Objective To estimate the effect of permitting intensive care physicians to select their preferred level of compensation for completing a short Web-based survey on physician (1) response rate, (2) survey completion rate, (3) time to response, and (4) time spent completing the survey. Methods A total of 1850 US intensivists from an existing database were randomized to receive a survey invitation email with or without an Amazon.com incentive available to the first 100 respondents. The incentive could be instantly redeemed for an amount chosen by the respondent, up to a maximum of US $50. Results The overall response rate was 35.90% (630/1755). Among the 35.4% (111/314) of eligible participants choosing the incentive, 80.2% (89/111) selected the maximum value. Among intensivists offered an incentive, the response was 6.0% higher (95% CI 1.5-10.5, P=.01), survey completion was marginally greater (807/859, 94.0% vs 892/991, 90.0%; P=.06), and the median number of days to survey response was shorter (0.8, interquartile range [IQR] 0.2-14.4 vs 6.6, IQR 0.3-22.3; P=.001), with no difference in time spent completing the survey. Conclusions Permitting intensive care physicians to determine compensation level for completing a short Web-based survey modestly increased response rate and substantially decreased response time without decreasing the time spent on survey completion. PMID:26223821

Bias in child maltreatment self-reports using Interactive Voice Response

PubMed Central

Kepple, Nancy J.; Freisthler, Bridget; Johnson-Motoyama, Michelle

2014-01-01

Few methods estimate the prevalence of child maltreatment in the general population due to concerns about socially desirable responding and mandated reporting laws. Innovative methods, such as Interactive Voice Response (IVR), may obtain better estimates that address these concerns. This study examined the utility of Interactive Voice Response (IVR) for child maltreatment behaviors by assessing differences between respondents who completed and did not complete a survey using IVR technology. A mixed-mode telephone survey was conducted in English and Spanish in 50 cities in California during 2009. Caregivers (n = 3,023) self-reported abusive and neglectful parenting behaviors for a focal child under the age of 13 using Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing and IVR. We used Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models to compare survey completion by caregivers nested within cities for the full sample and age-specific ranges. For demographic characteristics, caregivers born in the United States were more likely to complete the survey when controlling for covariates. Parenting stress, provision of physical needs, and provision of supervisory needs were not associated with survey completion in the full multivariate model. For caregivers of children 0 to 4 years (n = 838), those reporting they could often or always hear their child from another room had a higher likelihood of survey completion. The findings suggest IVR could prove to be useful for future surveys that aim to estimate abusive and/or neglectful parenting behaviors given the limited bias observed for demographic characteristics and problematic parenting behaviors. Further research should expand upon its utility to advance estimation rates. PMID:24819534

Evolution of Modern Birds Revealed by Mitogenomics: Timing the Radiation and Origin of Major Orders

PubMed Central

Pacheco, M. Andreína; Battistuzzi, Fabia U.; Lentino, Miguel; Aguilar, Roberto F.; Kumar, Sudhir; Escalante, Ananias A.

2011-01-01

Mitochondrial (mt) genes and genomes are among the major sources of data for evolutionary studies in birds. This places mitogenomic studies in birds at the core of intense debates in avian evolutionary biology. Indeed, complete mt genomes are actively been used to unveil the phylogenetic relationships among major orders, whereas single genes (e.g., cytochrome c oxidase I [COX1]) are considered standard for species identification and defining species boundaries (DNA barcoding). In this investigation, we study the time of origin and evolutionary relationships among Neoaves orders using complete mt genomes. First, we were able to solve polytomies previously observed at the deep nodes of the Neoaves phylogeny by analyzing 80 mt genomes, including 17 new sequences reported in this investigation. As an example, we found evidence indicating that columbiforms and charadriforms are sister groups. Overall, our analyses indicate that by improving the taxonomic sampling, complete mt genomes can solve the evolutionary relationships among major bird groups. Second, we used our phylogenetic hypotheses to estimate the time of origin of major avian orders as a way to test if their diversification took place prior to the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. Such timetrees were estimated using several molecular dating approaches and conservative calibration points. Whereas we found time estimates slightly younger than those reported by others, most of the major orders originated prior to the K/T boundary. Finally, we used our timetrees to estimate the rate of evolution of each mt gene. We found great variation on the mutation rates among mt genes and within different bird groups. COX1 was the gene with less variation among Neoaves orders and the one with the least amount of rate heterogeneity across lineages. Such findings support the choice of COX 1 among mt genes as target for developing DNA barcoding approaches in birds. PMID:21242529

Application of the Repetitions in Reserve-Based Rating of Perceived Exertion Scale for Resistance Training

PubMed Central

Cronin, John; Storey, Adam; Zourdos, Michael C.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT RATINGS OF PERCEIVED EXERTION ARE A VALID METHOD OF ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF A RESISTANCE TRAINING EXERCISE OR SESSION. SCORES ARE GIVEN AFTER COMPLETION OF AN EXERCISE OR TRAINING SESSION FOR THE PURPOSES OF ATHLETE MONITORING. HOWEVER, A NEWLY DEVELOPED SCALE BASED ON HOW MANY REPETITIONS ARE REMAINING AT THE COMPLETION OF A SET MAY BE A MORE PRECISE TOOL. THIS APPROACH ADJUSTS LOADS AUTOMATICALLY TO MATCH ATHLETE CAPABILITIES ON A SET-TO-SET BASIS AND MAY MORE ACCURATELY GAUGE INTENSITY AT NEAR-LIMIT LOADS. THIS ARTICLE OUTLINES HOW TO INCORPORATE THIS NOVEL SCALE INTO A TRAINING PLAN. PMID:27531969

Cratering time scales for the Galilean satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shoemaker, E. M.; Wolfe, R. F.

1982-01-01

An attempt is made to estimate the present cratering rate for each Galilean satellite within the correct order of magnitude and to extend the cratering rates back into the geologic past on the basis of evidence from the earth-moon system. For collisions with long and short period comets, the magnitudes and size distributions of the comet nuclei, the distribution of their perihelion distances, and the completeness of discovery are addressed. The diameters and masses of cometary nuclei are assessed, as are crater diameters and cratering rates. The dynamical relations between long period and short period comets are discussed, and the population of Jupiter-crossing asteroids is assessed. Estimated present cratering rates on the Galilean satellites are compared and variations of cratering rate with time are considered. Finally, the consistency of derived cratering time scales with the cratering record of the icy Galilean satellites is discussed.

Estimating mother-to-child HIV transmission rates in Cameroon in 2011: a computer simulation approach.

PubMed

Nguefack, Hermine L Nguena; Gwet, Henri; Desmonde, Sophie; Oukem-Boyer, Odile Ouwe Missi; Nkenfou, Céline; Téjiokem, Mathurin; Tchendjou, Patrice; Domkam, Irénée; Leroy, Valériane; Alioum, Ahmadou

2016-01-12

Despite the progress in the Prevention of the Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV (PMTCT), the paediatric HIV epidemic remains worrying in Cameroon. HIV prevalence rate for the population of pregnant women was 7.6% in 2010 in Cameroon. The extent of the paediatric HIV epidemic is needed to inform policymakers. We developed a stochastic simulation model to estimate the number of new paediatric HIV infections through MTCT based on the observed uptake of services during the different steps of the PMTCT cascade in Cameroon in 2011. Different levels of PMTCT uptake was also assessed. A discrete events computer simulation-based approach with stochastic structure was proposed to generate a cohort of pregnant women followed-up until 6 weeks post-partum, and optionally until complete breastfeeding cessation in both prevalent and incident lactating HIV-infected women. The different parameters of the simulation model were fixed using data sources available from the 2011 national registry surveys, and from external cohorts in Cameroon. Different PMTCT coverages were simulated to assess their impact on MTCT. Available data show a low coverage of PMTCT services in Cameroon in 2011. Based on a simulation approach on a population of 995, 533 pregnant women, the overall residual MTCT rate in 2011 was estimated to be 22.1% (95 % CI: 18.6%-25.2%), the 6-week perinatal MTCT rate among prevalent HIV-infected mothers at delivery is estimated at 12.1% (95% CI: 8.1%-15.1%), with an additional postnatal MTCT rate estimated at 13.3% (95% CI: 9.3%-17.8%). The MTCT rate among children whose mothers seroconverted during breastfeeding was estimated at 20.8% (95% CI: 14.1%-26.9%). Overall, we estimated the number of new HIV infections in children in Cameroon to be 10, 403 (95% CI: 9, 054-13, 345) in 2011. When PMTCT uptake have been fixed at 100%, 90% and 80%, global MTCT rate failed to 0.9% (9% CI: 0.5%-1.7%), 2.0% (95% CI: 0.9%-3.2%) and 4.3% (95% CI: 2.4%-6.7%) respectively. This model is helpful to provide MTCT estimates to guide the national HIV policy in Cameroon. Increasing supply and uptake of PMTCT services among prevalent HIV infected pregnant women, as well as HIV-prevention interventions including the offer and acceptance of HIV testing and counselling in lactating women could reduce significantly the residual HIV MTCT in Cameroon. A public health effort should be made to encourage health care workers and pregnant women to use PMTCT services until complete breastfeeding cessation.

Joint release rate estimation and measurement-by-measurement model correction for atmospheric radionuclide emission in nuclear accidents: An application to wind tunnel experiments.

PubMed

Li, Xinpeng; Li, Hong; Liu, Yun; Xiong, Wei; Fang, Sheng

2018-03-05

The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov's method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ASSESSMENT FOR THE CO-FIRING OF BIO-REFINERY SUPPLIED LIGNIN PROJECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ted Berglund; Jeffrey T. Ranney; Carol L. Babb

2002-04-01

The major aspects of this project are proceeding toward completion. Prior to this quarter, design criteria, tentative site selection, facility layout, and preliminary facility cost estimates were completed and issued. Processing of bio-solids was completed, providing material for the pilot operations. Pilot facility hydrolysis production has been completed to produce lignin for co-fire testing and the lignin fuel was washed and dewatered. Both the lignin and bio-solids fuel materials for co-fire testing were sent to the co-fire facility (EERC) for evaluation and co-firing. EERC has received coal typical of the fuel to the TVA-Colbert boilers. This material was used atmore » EERC as baseline material and for mixing with the bio-fuel for combustion testing. All the combustion and fuel handling tests at EERC have been completed. During fuel preparation EERC reported no difficulties in fuel blending and handling. Preliminary co-fire test results indicate that the blending of lignin and bio-solids with the Colbert coal blend generally reduces NO{sub x} emissions, increases the reactivity of the coal, and increases the ash deposition rate on superheater surfaces. Deposits produced from the fuel blends, however, are more friable and hence easier to remove from tube surfaces relative to those produced from the baseline Colbert coal blend. The final co-fire testing report is being prepared at EERC and will be completed by the end of the second quarter of 2002. The TVA-Colbert facility has neared completion of the task to evaluate co-location of the Masada facility on the operation of the power generation facility. The TVA-Colbert fossil plant is fully capable of providing a reliable steam supply. The preferred steam supply connection points and steam pipeline routing have been identified. The environmental review of the pipeline routing has been completed and no major impacts have been identified. Detailed assessment of steam export impacts on the Colbert boiler system have been completed and a cost estimate for the steam supply system was completed. The cost estimate and output and heat rate impacts have been used to determine a preliminary price for the exported steam. TVA is further evaluating the impacts of adding lignin to the coal fuel blend and how the steam cost is impacted by proximity of the Masada biomass facility.« less

Advantages and limitations of web-based surveys: evidence from a child mental health survey.

PubMed

Heiervang, Einar; Goodman, Robert

2011-01-01

Web-based surveys may have advantages related to the speed and cost of data collection as well as data quality. However, they may be biased by low and selective participation. We predicted that such biases would distort point-estimates such as average symptom level or prevalence but not patterns of associations with putative risk-factors. A structured psychiatric interview was administered to parents in two successive surveys of child mental health. In 2003, parents were interviewed face-to-face, whereas in 2006 they completed the interview online. In both surveys, interviews were preceded by paper questionnaires covering child and family characteristics. The rate of parents logging onto the web site was comparable to the response rate for face-to-face interviews, but the rate of full response (completing all sections of the interview) was much lower for web-based interviews. Full response was less frequent for non-traditional families, immigrant parents, and less educated parents. Participation bias affected point estimates of psychopathology but had little effect on associations with putative risk factors. The time and cost of full web-based interviews was only a quarter of that for face-to-face interviews. Web-based surveys may be performed faster and at lower cost than more traditional approaches with personal interviews. Selective participation seems a particular threat to point estimates of psychopathology, while patterns of associations are more robust.

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, J. Christine; Petty, Grant W.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

[Long term results of exclusive chemotherapy for glottic squamous cell carcinoma complete clinical responders after induction chemotherapy].

PubMed

Vachin, F; Hans, S; Atlan, D; Brasnu, D; Menard, M; Laccourreye, O

2004-06-01

To evaluate the long-term results of exclusive chemotherapy for T1-T3N0M0 glottic squamous cell carcinoma complete clinical responders after induction chemotherapy. Between 1985 and 2000, 69 patients with glottic squamous cell carcinoma complete clinical responders after induction chemotherapy were managed with exclusive chemotherapy at our department. Chemotherapy associated platinum and fluorouracil. This retrospective analysis evaluated actuarial survival, treatment morbidity, oncologic events and laryngeal preservation. Various independent factors were tested for potential correlation with survival and local recurrence. The 5-year Kaplan-Meier actuarial survival, local control, lymph node control estimate were 83,6%, 64,8%, 98,6% respectively. Chemotherapy never resulted in death. The 10-year actuarial metachronous second primary tumors estimate was 32%. The overall laryngeal preservation rate was 98,6%. Altogether our data and the review of the literature suggest that in patients achieving a complete clinical response after and induction based chemotherapy regimen, the completion of an exclusive chemotherapy regimen appears to be a valid alternative to the conventional use of radiotherapy or chemo-radiation protocols.

Feasibility of a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of decision boxes on shared decision-making processes.

PubMed

Giguere, Anik Mc; Labrecque, Michel; Légaré, France; Grad, Roland; Cauchon, Michel; Greenway, Matthew; Haynes, R Brian; Pluye, Pierre; Syed, Iqra; Banerjee, Debi; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues; Martin, Mélanie

2015-02-25

Decision boxes (DBoxes) are two-page evidence summaries to prepare clinicians for shared decision making (SDM). We sought to assess the feasibility of a clustered Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) to evaluate their impact. A convenience sample of clinicians (nurses, physicians and residents) from six primary healthcare clinics who received eight DBoxes and rated their interest in the topic and satisfaction. After consultations, their patients rated their involvement in decision-making processes (SDM-Q-9 instrument). We measured clinic and clinician recruitment rates, questionnaire completion rates, patient eligibility rates, and estimated the RCT needed sample size. Among the 20 family medicine clinics invited to participate in this study, four agreed to participate, giving an overall recruitment rate of 20%. Of 148 clinicians invited to the study, 93 participated (63%). Clinicians rated an interest in the topics ranging 6.4-8.2 out of 10 (with 10 highest) and a satisfaction with DBoxes of 4 or 5 out of 5 (with 5 highest) for 81% DBoxes. For the future RCT, we estimated that a sample size of 320 patients would allow detecting a 9% mean difference in the SDM-Q-9 ratings between our two arms (0.02 ICC; 0.05 significance level; 80% power). Clinicians' recruitment and questionnaire completion rates support the feasibility of the planned RCT. The level of interest of participants for the DBox topics, and their level of satisfaction with the Dboxes demonstrate the acceptability of the intervention. Processes to recruit clinics and patients should be optimized.

Simulation of ground-water flow in glaciofluvial aquifers in the Grand Rapids area, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Perry M.

2004-01-01

A calibrated steady-state, finite-difference, ground-waterflow model was constructed to simulate ground-water flow in three glaciofluvial aquifers, defined in this report as the upper, middle, and lower aquifers, in an area of about 114 mi2 surrounding the city of Grand Rapids in north-central Minnesota. The calibrated model will be used by Minnesota Department of Health and communities in the Grand Rapids area in the development of wellhead protection plans for their water supplies. The model was calibrated through comparison of simulated ground-water levels to measured static water levels in 351 wells, and comparison of simulated base-flow rates to estimated base-flow rates for reaches of the Mississippi and Prairie Rivers. Model statistics indicate that the model tends to overestimate ground-water levels. The root mean square errors ranged from +12.83 ft in wells completed in the upper aquifer to +19.10 ft in wells completed in the middle aquifer. Mean absolute differences between simulated and measured water levels ranged from +4.43 ft for wells completed in the upper aquifer to +9.25 ft for wells completed in the middle aquifer. Mean algebraic differences ranged from +9.35 ft for wells completed in the upper aquifer to +14.44 ft for wells completed in the middle aquifer, with the positive differences indicating that the simulated water levels were higher than the measured water levels. Percentage errors between simulated and estimated base-flow rates for the three monitored reaches all were less than 10 percent, indicating good agreement. Simulated ground-water levels were most sensitive to changes in general-head boundary conductance, indicating that this characteristic is the predominant model input variable controlling steady-state water-level conditions. Simulated groundwater flow to stream reaches was most sensitive to changes in horizontal hydraulic conductivity, indicating that this characteristic is the predominant model input variable controlling steady-state flow conditions.

The rate of preterm birth in the United States is affected by the method of gestational age assignment.

PubMed

Duryea, Elaine L; McIntire, Donald D; Leveno, Kenneth J

2015-08-01

The objective of the study was to examine the rate of preterm birth in the United States using 2 different methods of gestational age assignment and determine which method more closely correlates with the known morbidities associated with preterm birth. Using National Center for Health Statistics data from 2012 United States birth certificates, we computed the rate of preterm birth defined as a birth at 36 or fewer completed weeks with gestational age assigned using the obstetric estimate as specified in the revised birth certificate. This rate was then compared with the rate when gestational age is calculated using the last menstrual period alone. The rates of neonatal morbidities associated with preterm birth were examined for each method of assigning gestational age. The rate of preterm birth was 9.7% when the obstetric estimate is used to calculate gestational age, which is significantly different from the rate of 11.5% when gestational age is calculated using the last menstrual period alone. In addition, the neonates identified as preterm by obstetric estimate were more likely to qualify as low birthweight (54% vs 42%; P < .001) and suffer morbidities such as need for assisted ventilation and surfactant use than those identified with the last menstrual period alone. That is to say obstetric estimate is more sensitive and specific for preterm birth by all available markers of prematurity. The preterm birth rate is 9.7% vs 11.5% and more closely correlates with adverse neonatal outcomes associated with preterm birth when gestational age is assigned using the obstetric estimate. This method of gestational age assignment is currently used by most industrialized nations and should be considered for future reporting of US outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GLACiAR, an Open-Source Python Tool for Simulations of Source Recovery and Completeness in Galaxy Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, D.; Trenti, M.; Mutch, S.; Oesch, P. A.

2018-06-01

The luminosity function is a fundamental observable for characterising how galaxies form and evolve throughout the cosmic history. One key ingredient to derive this measurement from the number counts in a survey is the characterisation of the completeness and redshift selection functions for the observations. In this paper, we present GLACiAR, an open python tool available on GitHub to estimate the completeness and selection functions in galaxy surveys. The code is tailored for multiband imaging surveys aimed at searching for high-redshift galaxies through the Lyman-break technique, but it can be applied broadly. The code generates artificial galaxies that follow Sérsic profiles with different indexes and with customisable size, redshift, and spectral energy distribution properties, adds them to input images, and measures the recovery rate. To illustrate this new software tool, we apply it to quantify the completeness and redshift selection functions for J-dropouts sources (redshift z 10 galaxies) in the Hubble Space Telescope Brightest of Reionizing Galaxies Survey. Our comparison with a previous completeness analysis on the same dataset shows overall agreement, but also highlights how different modelling assumptions for the artificial sources can impact completeness estimates.

The epidemiology of tuberculosis in the Pacific, 2000 to 2013.

PubMed

Viney, Kerri; Hoy, Damian; Roth, Adam; Kelly, Paul; Harley, David; Sleigh, Adrian

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant public health challenge in the 22 Pacific island countries and territories. Using TB surveillance data and World Health Organization (WHO) estimates from 2000 to 2013, we summarize the epidemiology of TB in the Pacific. This was a descriptive study of incident TB cases reported annually by Pacific island national TB programmes to WHO. We counted cases and calculated proportions and case notification rates per 100,000 population. We calculated the proportion of TB patients who completed TB treatment and summed estimates of national incidence, prevalence and mortality, provided by WHO, to produce regional incidence, prevalence and mortality rates per 100,000 population. Estimated TB incidence in the Pacific has remained high but stable from 2000 to 2013; estimated prevalence and mortality have fallen by 20% and 47%, respectively. The TB case notification rate increased by 58%, from 146 to 231 per 100,000 population in the same time period. In 2013, 24,145 TB cases were notified, most (94% or 22,657) were from Papua New Guinea. Kiribati had the highest TB case notification rate at 398 cases per 100,000 population. TB case notification rates were also high in Papua New Guinea, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu (309, 283 and 182, respectively). TB in the Pacific is improving in some areas; however, high rates affect many countries and the estimated regional incidence rate is stable. To further reduce the burden of TB, a combination of dedicated public health and system-wide approaches are required along with poverty reduction and social protection initiatives.

Grizzly bear predation rates on caribou calves in northeastern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Donald D.; McCabe, Thomas R.

1997-01-01

During June 1993 and 1994, 11 radiocollared and 7 unmarked grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) were monitored visually (observation) from fixed-wing aircraft to document predation on calves of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) Herd (PCH) in northeastern Alaska. Twenty-six (72%) grizzly bear observations were completed (???60 min) successfully (median duration = 180 min; ??95% CI = 136-181 min; range = 67-189 min) and 10 were discontinued (duration ???24 min) due to disturbance to the bear, or unfavorable weather conditions. Of the 26 successfully completed observations, 15 (58%) included predatory activity (encounter) directed at caribou calves and 8 (31%) included kills. Of 32 encounters, 9 resulted in kills, for a success rate of 28%. The median duration of encounters was 1 minute (??95% CI = 1-2 min; range = 1-6 min; n = 32;), and the median time spent at a kill was 14 minutes (??95% CI = 9-23 min; range = 6-56 min; n = 9). Sows with young (n = 4) killed more frequently (75%; P = 0.0178) than barren sows, boars, and consorting pairs combined (17%; n = 18). Estimated kill rate was highest for sows with young (6.3 kills/bear/day; n = 4), followed by barren sows (4.6 kills/bear/day; n = 5), boars (1.9 kills/bear/day; n = 5), and, finally, consorting pairs (1.0 kills/bear/day; n = 8). Estimated kill rate obtained via conventional radiotracking point surveys (4.8 kills/bear/day) was higher than that obtained via concurrent bear observations (3.1 kills/bear/day). Our research provides baseline estimates of predation rates by grizzly bears on caribou calves that will enhance the capability of wildlife professionals in managing populations of both predators and their prey.

Child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain is associated with procedural fear in children: a study in children with diabetes and their mothers.

PubMed

Vervoort, T; Goubert, L; Vandenbossche, H; Van Aken, S; Matthys, D; Crombez, G

2011-12-01

The contribution of the child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain was explored in explaining procedural pain and fear in children. Procedural fear and pain were investigated in 44 children with Type I diabetes undergoing a finger prick. The relationships between parents' catastrophizing and parents' own fear and estimates of their child's pain were also investigated. The children and their mothers completed questionnaires prior to a routine consultation with the diabetes physician. Children completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children (PCS-C) and provided ratings of their experienced pain and fear on a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Parents completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale For Parents (PCS-P) d provided estimates of their child's pain and their own experienced fear on a 0-10 NRS. Analyses indicated that higher catastrophizing by children was associated with more fear and pain during the finger prick. Scores for parents' catastrophzing about their children's pain were positively related to parents' scores for their own fear, estimates of their children's pain, and child-reported fear, but not the amount of pain reported by the child. The findings attest to the importance of assessing for and targeting child and parents' catastrophizing about pain. Addressing catastrophizing and related fears and concerns of both parents and children may be necessary to assure appropriate self-management. Further investigation of the mechanisms relating catastrophizing to deleterious outcomes is warranted.

Genome Evolution in the Primary Endosymbiont of Whiteflies Sheds Light on Their Divergence

PubMed Central

Santos-Garcia, Diego; Vargas-Chavez, Carlos; Moya, Andrés; Latorre, Amparo; Silva, Francisco J.

2015-01-01

Whiteflies are important agricultural insect pests, whose evolutionary success is related to a long-term association with a bacterial endosymbiont, Candidatus Portiera aleyrodidarum. To completely characterize this endosymbiont clade, we sequenced the genomes of three new Portiera strains covering the two extant whitefly subfamilies. Using endosymbiont and mitochondrial sequences we estimated the divergence dates in the clade and used these values to understand the molecular evolution of the endosymbiont coding sequences. Portiera genomes were maintained almost completely stable in gene order and gene content during more than 125 Myr of evolution, except in the Bemisia tabaci lineage. The ancestor had already lost the genetic information transfer autonomy but was able to participate in the synthesis of all essential amino acids and carotenoids. The time of divergence of the B. tabaci complex was much more recent than previous estimations. The recent divergence of biotypes B (MEAM1 species) and Q (MED species) suggests that they still could be considered strains of the same species. We have estimated the rates of evolution of Portiera genes, synonymous and nonsynonymous, and have detected significant differences among-lineages, with most Portiera lineages evolving very slowly. Although the nonsynonymous rates were much smaller than the synonymous, the genomic dN/dS ratios were similar, discarding selection as the driver of among-lineage variation. We suggest variation in mutation rate and generation time as the responsible factors. In conclusion, the slow evolutionary rates of Portiera may have contributed to its long-term association with whiteflies, avoiding its replacement by a novel and more efficient endosymbiont. PMID:25716826

Tuberculosis among the homeless, United States, 1994–2010

PubMed Central

Bamrah, S.; Yelk Woodruff, R. S.; Powell, K.; Ghosh, S.; Kammerer, J. S.; Haddad, M. B.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY OBJECTIVES 1) To describe homeless persons diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) during the period 1994–2010, and 2) to estimate a TB incidence rate among homeless persons in the United States. METHODS TB cases reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System were analyzed by origin of birth. Incidence rates were calculated using the US Department of Housing and Urban Development homeless population estimates. Analysis of genotyping results identified clustering as a marker for transmission among homeless TB patients. RESULTS Of 270 948 reported TB cases, 16 527 (6%) were homeless. The TB incidence rate among homeless persons ranged from 36 to 47 cases per 100 000 population in 2006–2010. Homeless TB patients had over twice the odds of not completing treatment and of belonging to a genotype cluster. US- and foreign-born homeless TB patients had respectively 8 and 12 times the odds of substance abuse. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the general population, homeless persons had an approximately 10-fold increase in TB incidence, were less likely to complete treatment and more likely to abuse substances. Public health outreach should target homeless populations to reduce the excess burden of TB in this population. PMID:24125444

Dense Velocity Field of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozener, H.; Aktug, B.; Dogru, A.; Tasci, L.

2017-12-01

While the GNSS-based crustal deformation studies in Turkey date back to early 1990s, a homogenous velocity field utilizing all the available data is still missing. Regional studies employing different site distributions, observation plans, processing software and methodology not only create reference frame variations but also heterogeneous stochastic models. While the reference frame effect between different velocity fields could easily be removed by estimating a set of rotations, the homogenization of the stochastic models of the individual velocity fields requires a more detailed analysis. Using a rigorous Variance Component Estimation (VCE) methodology, we estimated the variance factors for each of the contributing velocity fields and combined them into a single homogenous velocity field covering whole Turkey. Results show that variance factors between velocity fields including the survey mode and continuous observations can vary a few orders of magnitude. In this study, we present the most complete velocity field in Turkey rigorously combined from 20 individual velocity fields including the 146 station CORS network and totally 1072 stations. In addition, three GPS campaigns were performed along the North Anatolian Fault and Aegean Region to fill the gap between existing velocity fields. The homogenously combined new velocity field is nearly complete in terms of geographic coverage, and will serve as the basis for further analyses such as the estimation of the deformation rates and the determination of the slip rates across main fault zones.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq Using Complete Earthquake Catalogue Files

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ameer, A. S.; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.; Alsinawi, S. A.

2005-05-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29° 38.5° N and longitude 39° 50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905 2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below Ms=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (Mc) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the Mc was estimated to be about Ms=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest Mc to be about Ms=3.5 and the highest Mc of about Ms=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate λ, b value, maximum regional magnitude mmax) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude mmin ≥ m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude mmax was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.

Estimating risk and rate levels, ratios and differences in case-control studies.

PubMed

King, Gary; Zeng, Langche

2002-05-30

Classic (or 'cumulative') case-control sampling designs do not admit inferences about quantities of interest other than risk ratios, and then only by making the rare events assumption. Probabilities, risk differences and other quantities cannot be computed without knowledge of the population incidence fraction. Similarly, density (or 'risk set') case-control sampling designs do not allow inferences about quantities other than the rate ratio. Rates, rate differences, cumulative rates, risks, and other quantities cannot be estimated unless auxiliary information about the underlying cohort such as the number of controls in each full risk set is available. Most scholars who have considered the issue recommend reporting more than just risk and rate ratios, but auxiliary population information needed to do this is not usually available. We address this problem by developing methods that allow valid inferences about all relevant quantities of interest from either type of case-control study when completely ignorant of or only partially knowledgeable about relevant auxiliary population information.

A three-source capture-recapture estimate of the number of new HIV diagnoses in children in France from 2003–2006 with multiple imputation of a variable of heterogeneous catchability

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Nearly all HIV infections in children worldwide are acquired through mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) during pregnancy, labour, delivery or breastfeeding. The objective of our study was to estimate the number and rate of new HIV diagnoses in children less than 13 years of age in mainland France from 2003–2006. Methods We performed a capture-recapture analysis based on three sources of information: the mandatory HIV case reporting (DOVIH), the French Perinatal Cohort (ANRS-EPF) and a laboratory-based surveillance of HIV (LaboVIH). The missing values of a variable of heterogeneous catchability were estimated through multiple imputation. Log-linear modelling provided estimates of the number of new HIV infections in children, taking into account dependencies between sources and variables of heterogeneous catchability. Results The three sources observed 216 new HIV diagnoses after record-linkage. The number of new HIV diagnoses in children was estimated at 387 (95%CI [271–503]) from 2003–2006, among whom 60% were born abroad. The estimated rate of new HIV diagnoses in children in mainland France was 9.1 per million in 2006 and was 38 times higher in children born abroad than in those born in France. The estimated completeness of the three sources combined was 55.8% (95% CI [42.9 – 79.7]) and varied according to the source; the completeness of DOVIH (28.4%) and ANRS-EPF (26.1%) were lower than that of LaboVIH (33.3%). Conclusion Our study provided, for the first time, an estimated annual rate of new HIV diagnoses in children under 13 years old in mainland France. A more systematic HIV screening of pregnant women that is repeated during pregnancy among women likely to engage in risky behaviour is needed to optimise the prevention of MTCT. HIV screening for children who migrate from countries with high HIV prevalence to France could be recommended to facilitate early diagnosis and treatment. PMID:23050554

Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butler, Catherine Alyssa; McGowan, Conor P.; Grand, James B.; Smith, David

2012-01-01

The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

Cohort fertility in Western Europe: comparing fertility trends in recent birth cohorts.

PubMed

Hopflinger, F

1984-01-01

A comparative study of fertility levels among cohorts of women born in 1940, 1945, 1950, 1955, and 1960 in 16 European countries was undertaken using vital statistics data. The average number of live birth/woman for each of the 5 cohorts by age 20, 25, 30, and 35 was computed by cumulating age-specific fertility rates of women born in specific years. Median age at childbirth and completed fertility were estimated for the 3 oldest cohorts (1940, 1945, and 1950). 2 estimations of completed fertility were made. 1 was based on the assumption of a constant age-specific fertility rate, and the other was based on a relational Gompertz model. Where possible cohort fertility was disaggregated by birth order. Since the data for the countries was not fully comparable, it was not possible to use sophisticated analytical techniques. Other limits of the study were that fertility, especially for the more recent cohorts was incomplete, parity specific data was not available for all the countries, and open cohorts rather than closed cohorts were used. The analysis indicated that completed cohort fertility was lower for the 1950 cohort than for the 1940 cohort in all 16 countries. For the 1940 cohort, only Germany's estimated completed fertility was less than 2.00. For the other 15 countries, estimated completed fertility ranged from 2.04 (Finland) to 3.36 (Ireland). For the 1950 cohort, estimated completed fertility was less than 2.00 in 8 of the countries. Estimated completed fertility was lowest in Finland and Switzerland (1.82) and highest in Ireland (3.33). No marked increase in childlessness was observed, and for the 1940 and 1950 cohorts, childlessness did not exceed 20% in any of the countries and was considerably less than 20% in most of the countries. There was a trend toward delayed childbearing in most of the countries. An examination of available parity data for the 1940 and 1950 cohorts lead to the conclusion that the major factor contributing toward the decline in fertility was a decline in 3rd and higher order births. Most countries showed a decline in higher order births, and in some countries the decline was marked. The proportion of 1-child families increased in many countries and was especially high in Germany. The fertility decline may be leveling off in some of the countries. Fertility will probably stablize at a low level in most of the countries. The decline in fertility is due not only to increased contraceptive use but to the growing trend toward secular individualism in European society. The similarities in the fertility declines in all the countries indicates that identical cross national causes are influencing fertility behavior. The 16 countries included iln the study were Austria, Belgium, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

Assessing vaccination coverage in infants, survey studies versus the Flemish immunisation register: achieving the best of both worlds.

PubMed

Braeckman, Tessa; Lernout, Tinne; Top, Geert; Paeps, Annick; Roelants, Mathieu; Hoppenbrouwers, Karel; Van Damme, Pierre; Theeten, Heidi

2014-01-09

Infant immunisation coverage in Flanders, Belgium, is monitored through repeated coverage surveys. With the increased use of Vaccinnet, the web-based ordering system for vaccines in Flanders set up in 2004 and linked to an immunisation register, this database could become an alternative to quickly estimate vaccination coverage. To evaluate its current accuracy, coverage estimates generated from Vaccinnet alone were compared with estimates from the most recent survey (2012) that combined interview data with data from Vaccinnet and medical files. Coverage rates from registrations in Vaccinnet were systematically lower than the corresponding estimates obtained through the survey (mean difference 7.7%). This difference increased by dose number for vaccines that require multiple doses. Differences in administration date between the two sources were observed for 3.8-8.2% of registered doses. Underparticipation in Vaccinnet thus significantly impacts on the register-based immunisation coverage estimates, amplified by underregistration of administered doses among vaccinators using Vaccinnet. Therefore, survey studies, despite being labour-intensive and expensive, currently provide more complete and reliable results than register-based estimates alone in Flanders. However, further improvement of Vaccinnet's completeness will likely allow more accurate estimates in the nearby future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ASSESSMENT FOR THE CO-FIRING OF BIO-REFINERY SUPPLIED LIGNIN PROJECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ted Berglund; Jeffrey T. Ranney; Carol L. Babb

2001-10-01

The major aspects of this project are proceeding toward completion. Prior to this quarter, design criteria, tentative site selection, facility layout, and preliminary facility cost estimates were completed and issued. Processing of bio-solids was completed, providing material for the pilot operations. Pilot facility design, equipment selection, and modification were completed during the fourth quarter of 2000. Initial pilot facility shakedown was completed. After some unavoidable delays, a suitable representative supply of MSW feed material was procured. During this first quarter of 2001, shredding of the feed material and final feed conditioning were completed. Pilot facility hydrolysis production was completed tomore » produce lignin for co-fire testing and the lignin fuel was washed and dewatered. Both the lignin and bio-solids fuel materials for co-fire testing were sent to the co-fire facility (EERC) for evaluation and co-firing. EERC has received coal typical of the fuel to the TVA-Colbert boilers. This material will be used at EERC as baseline material and for mixing with the bio-fuel for combustion testing. EERC combustion testing of the bio-based fuels is scheduled to begin in October of 2001. The TVA-Colbert facility has neared completion of the task to evaluate co-location of the Masada facility on the operation of the power generation facility. The TVA-Colbert fossil plant is fully capable of providing a reliable steam supply. The preferred steam supply connection points and steam pipeline routing have been identified. The environmental review of the pipeline routing has been completed and no major impacts have been identified. Detailed assessment of steam export impacts on the Colbert boiler system have been completed and a cost estimate for steam supply system was completed. The cost estimate and the output and heat rate impacts will be used to determine a preliminary price for the exported steam.« less

Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military. Volume 1. Design of the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

studies need to examine whether nonresponse bias remains in survey estimates. Even a comparatively small nonresponse rate could, in theory , lead to...gathering and maintaining the data needed , and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any...crimes in Article 120 need not be associated with sexual gratification if they are designed to humiliate or debase the person who is assaulted. Instead

Unplanned Robotic-Assisted Conversion-to-Open Colorectal Surgery is Associated with Adverse Outcomes.

PubMed

Lee, Yongjin F; Albright, Jeremy; Akram, Warqaa M; Wu, Juan; Ferraro, Jane; Cleary, Robert K

2018-06-01

Laparoscopic conversion-to-open colorectal surgery is associated with worse outcomes when compared to operations completed without conversion. Consequences of robotic conversion have not yet been determined. The purpose of this study is to compare short-term outcomes of converted robotic colorectal cases with those that are completed without conversion, as well as with cases done by the open approach. The ACS-NSQIP database was queried for patients who underwent robotic completed, robotic converted-to-open, and open colorectal resection between 2012 and 2015. Propensity scores were estimated using gradient-boosted machines and converted to weights. Generalized linear models were fit using propensity score-weighted data. A total of 25,253 patients met inclusion criteria-21,356 (84.5%) open, 3663 (14.5%) robotic completed, and 234 (0.9%) conversions. Conversion rate was 6.0%. Converted cases had significantly higher 30-day mortality rate, higher complication rate, and longer hospital length of stay than completed cases. Converted patients also had significantly higher rates of the following complications: surgical site infections, cardiac complications, deep venous thrombosis, postoperative ileus, postoperative re-intubation, renal failure, and 30-day reoperation. Compared to the open approach, converted patients had significantly more cardiac complications, postoperative reintubation, and longer operating times with no significant difference in 30-day mortality. Unplanned robotic conversion-to-open is associated with worse outcomes than completed cases and outcomes that more closely resemble traditional open colorectal surgery. Patients should be counseled with regard to minimally invasive conversion rates and outcomes. The continued pursuit of technological advancements that decrease the risk for conversion in minimally invasive colorectal surgery is clearly warranted.

Comprehensive investigation into historical pipeline construction costs and engineering economic analysis of Alaska in-state gas pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rui, Zhenhua

This study analyzes historical cost data of 412 pipelines and 220 compressor stations. On the basis of this analysis, the study also evaluates the feasibility of an Alaska in-state gas pipeline using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Analysis of pipeline construction costs shows that component costs, shares of cost components, and learning rates for material and labor costs vary by diameter, length, volume, year, and location. Overall average learning rates for pipeline material and labor costs are 6.1% and 12.4%, respectively. Overall average cost shares for pipeline material, labor, miscellaneous, and right of way (ROW) are 31%, 40%, 23%, and 7%, respectively. Regression models are developed to estimate pipeline component costs for different lengths, cross-sectional areas, and locations. An analysis of inaccuracy in pipeline cost estimation demonstrates that the cost estimation of pipeline cost components is biased except for in the case of total costs. Overall overrun rates for pipeline material, labor, miscellaneous, ROW, and total costs are 4.9%, 22.4%, -0.9%, 9.1%, and 6.5%, respectively, and project size, capacity, diameter, location, and year of completion have different degrees of impacts on cost overruns of pipeline cost components. Analysis of compressor station costs shows that component costs, shares of cost components, and learning rates for material and labor costs vary in terms of capacity, year, and location. Average learning rates for compressor station material and labor costs are 12.1% and 7.48%, respectively. Overall average cost shares of material, labor, miscellaneous, and ROW are 50.6%, 27.2%, 21.5%, and 0.8%, respectively. Regression models are developed to estimate compressor station component costs in different capacities and locations. An investigation into inaccuracies in compressor station cost estimation demonstrates that the cost estimation for compressor stations is biased except for in the case of material costs. Overall average overrun rates for compressor station material, labor, miscellaneous, land, and total costs are 3%, 60%, 2%, -14%, and 11%, respectively, and cost overruns for cost components are influenced by location and year of completion to different degrees. Monte Carlo models are developed and simulated to evaluate the feasibility of an Alaska in-state gas pipeline by assigning triangular distribution of the values of economic parameters. Simulated results show that the construction of an Alaska in-state natural gas pipeline is feasible at three scenarios: 500 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), 750 mmcfd, and 1000 mmcfd.

Estimation of hydrocarbon biodegradation rates in gasoline-contaminated sediment from measured respiration rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, R.J.; Baehr, A.L.; Lahvis, M.A.

2000-01-01

An open microcosm method for quantifying microbial respiration and estimating biodegradation rates of hydrocarbons in gasoline-contaminated sediment samples has been developed and validated. Stainless-steel bioreactors are filled with soil or sediment samples, and the vapor-phase composition (concentrations of oxygen (O2), nitrogen (N2), carbon dioxide (CO2), and selected hydrocarbons) is monitored over time. Replacement gas is added as the vapor sample is taken, and selection of the replacement gas composition facilitates real-time decision-making regarding environmental conditions within the bioreactor. This capability allows for maintenance of field conditions over time, which is not possible in closed microcosms. Reaction rates of CO2 and O2 are calculated from the vapor-phase composition time series. Rates of hydrocarbon biodegradation are either measured directly from the hydrocarbon mass balance, or estimated from CO2 and O2 reaction rates and assumed reaction stoichiometries. Open microcosm experiments using sediments spiked with toluene and p-xylene were conducted to validate the stoichiometric assumptions. Respiration rates calculated from O2 consumption and from CO2 production provide estimates of toluene and p- xylene degradation rates within about ??50% of measured values when complete mineralization stoichiometry is assumed. Measured values ranged from 851.1 to 965.1 g m-3 year-1 for toluene, and 407.2-942.3 g m-3 year-1 for p- xylene. Contaminated sediment samples from a gasoline-spill site were used in a second set of microcosm experiments. Here, reaction rates of O2 and CO2 were measured and used to estimate hydrocarbon respiration rates. Total hydrocarbon reaction rates ranged from 49.0 g m-3 year-1 in uncontaminated (background) to 1040.4 g m-3 year-1 for highly contaminated sediment, based on CO2 production data. These rate estimates were similar to those obtained independently from in situ CO2 vertical gradient and flux determinations at the field site. In these experiments, aerobic conditions were maintained in the microcosms by using air as the replacement gas, thus preserving the ambient aerobic environment of the subsurface near the capillary zone. This would not be possible with closed microcosms.

The epidemiology of tuberculosis in the Pacific, 2000 to 2013

PubMed Central

Hoy, Damian; Roth, Adam; Kelly, Paul; Harley, David; Sleigh, Adrian

2015-01-01

Objective Tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant public health challenge in the 22 Pacific island countries and territories. Using TB surveillance data and World Health Organization (WHO) estimates from 2000 to 2013, we summarize the epidemiology of TB in the Pacific. Methods This was a descriptive study of incident TB cases reported annually by Pacific island national TB programmes to WHO. We counted cases and calculated proportions and case notification rates per 100 000 population. We calculated the proportion of TB patients who completed TB treatment and summed estimates of national incidence, prevalence and mortality, provided by WHO, to produce regional incidence, prevalence and mortality rates per 100 000 population. Results Estimated TB incidence in the Pacific has remained high but stable from 2000 to 2013; estimated prevalence and mortality have fallen by 20% and 47%, respectively. The TB case notification rate increased by 58%, from 146 to 231 per 100 000 population in the same time period. In 2013, 24 145 TB cases were notified, most (94% or 22 657) were from Papua New Guinea. Kiribati had the highest TB case notification rate at 398 cases per 100 000 population. TB case notification rates were also high in Papua New Guinea, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu (309, 283 and 182, respectively). Discussion TB in the Pacific is improving in some areas; however, high rates affect many countries and the estimated regional incidence rate is stable. To further reduce the burden of TB, a combination of dedicated public health and system-wide approaches are required along with poverty reduction and social protection initiatives. PMID:26668768

Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

2013-01-01

Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining appropriate sample sizes, by management unit, to estimate harvest rate parameters each year may be too expensive, assumptions of constant annual harvest rates may be necessary. However, if changes in harvest regulations or hunter behavior influence subadult male harvest rates, the PASAK model could provide an unreliable index to population changes. 

Predictors and Impact of Self-Reported Suboptimal Effort on Estimates of Prevalence of HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders.

PubMed

Levine, Andrew J; Martin, Eileen; Sacktor, Ned; Munro, Cynthia; Becker, James

2017-06-01

Prevalence estimates of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) may be inflated. Estimates are determined via cohort studies in which participants may apply suboptimal effort on neurocognitive testing, thereby inflating estimates. Additionally, fluctuating HAND severity over time may be related to inconsistent effort. To address these hypotheses, we characterized effort in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. After neurocognitive testing, 935 participants (525 HIV- and 410 HIV+) completed the visual analog effort scale (VAES), rating their effort from 0% to 100%. Those with <100% then indicated the reason(s) for suboptimal effort. K-means cluster analysis established 3 groups: high (mean = 97%), moderate (79%), and low effort (51%). Rates of HAND and other characteristics were compared between the groups. Linear regression examined the predictors of VAES score. Data from 57 participants who completed the VAES at 2 visits were analyzed to characterize the longitudinal relationship between effort and HAND severity. Fifty-two percent of participants reported suboptimal effort (<100%), with no difference between serostatus groups. Common reasons included "tired" (43%) and "distracted" (36%). The lowest effort group had greater asymptomatic neurocognitive impairment and minor neurocognitive disorder diagnosis (25% and 33%) as compared with the moderate (23% and 15%) and the high (12% and 9%) effort groups. Predictors of suboptimal effort were self-reported memory impairment, African American race, and cocaine use. Change in effort between baseline and follow-up correlated with change in HAND severity. Suboptimal effort seems to inflate estimated HAND prevalence and explain fluctuation of severity over time. A simple modification of study protocols to optimize effort is indicated by the results.

Energy expenditure estimation during daily military routine with body-fixed sensors.

PubMed

Wyss, Thomas; Mäder, Urs

2011-05-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an algorithm for estimating energy expenditure during the daily military routine on the basis of data collected using body-fixed sensors. First, 8 volunteers completed isolated physical activities according to an established protocol, and the resulting data were used to develop activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions for physical activity energy expenditure on the basis of hip acceleration, heart rate, and body mass as independent variables. Second, the validity of these linear regressions was tested during the daily military routine using indirect calorimetry (n = 12). Volunteers' mean estimated energy expenditure did not significantly differ from the energy expenditure measured with indirect calorimetry (p = 0.898, 95% confidence interval = -1.97 to 1.75 kJ/min). We conclude that the developed activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions applied to the acceleration and heart rate data allow estimation of energy expenditure in 1-minute intervals during daily military routine, with accuracy equal to indirect calorimetry.

Cancer risk estimation in Belarussian children due to thyroid irradiation as a consequence of the Chernobyl nuclear accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buglova, E.; Kenigsberg, J.E.; Sergeeva, N.V.

1996-07-01

The thyroid doses received by the juvenile population of Belarus following the Chernobyl accident ranged up to about 10 Gy. The thyroid cancer risk estimate recommended in NCRP Report No. 80 was used to predict the number of thyroid cancer cases among children during 1990-1992 in selected Belarussian regions and cities. The results obtained using this risk estimate show an excess of thyroid cancer cases being registered vs. the predicted cases. Thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys under investigation is higher than among girls in the postaccident period. The excess of the observed over the expected incidence in the generalmore » juvenile population is caused by the high thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys. These results, which can be considered part of the first stage of a thorough thyroid cancer risk estimation after the Chernobyl accident, demonstrate the critical need to complete these studies in depth. 6 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Facilitation of Psychiatric Advance Directives by Peers and Clinicians on Assertive Community Treatment Teams.

PubMed

Easter, Michele M; Swanson, Jeffrey W; Robertson, Allison G; Moser, Lorna L; Swartz, Marvin S

2017-07-01

Psychiatric advance directives (PADs) provide a legal mechanism for competent adults to document care preferences and authorize a surrogate to make treatment decisions. In a controlled research setting, an evidence-based intervention, the facilitated psychiatric advance directive (FPAD), was previously shown to overcome most barriers to PAD completion. This study examined implementation of the FPAD intervention in usual care settings as delivered by peer support specialists and nonpeer clinicians on assertive community treatment (ACT) teams. A total of 145 ACT consumers were randomly assigned, within teams, to FPAD with facilitation by either a peer (N=71) or a clinician (N=74). Completion rates and PAD quality were compared with the previous study's standard and across facilitator type. Logistic regression was used to estimate effects on the likelihood of PAD completion. The completion rate of 50% in the intent-to-treat sample (N=145) was somewhat inferior to the prior standard (61%), but the rate of 58% for the retained sample (those who completed a follow-up interview, N=116) was not significantly different from the standard. Rates for peers and clinicians did not differ significantly from each other for either sample. PAD quality was similar to that achieved in the prior study. Four consumer variables predicted completion: independent living status, problematic substance use, length of time served by the ACT team, and no perceived unmet need for hospitalization in crisis. Peers and clinicians can play a crucial role in increasing the number of consumers with PADs, an important step toward improving implementation of PADs in mental health care.

Recent African origin of modern humans revealed by complete sequences of hominoid mitochondrial DNAs.

PubMed Central

Horai, S; Hayasaka, K; Kondo, R; Tsugane, K; Takahata, N

1995-01-01

We analyzed the complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences of three humans (African, European, and Japanese), three African apes (common and pygmy chimpanzees, and gorilla), and one orangutan in an attempt to estimate most accurately the substitution rates and divergence times of hominoid mtDNAs. Nonsynonymous substitutions and substitutions in RNA genes have accumulated with an approximately clock-like regularity. From these substitutions and under the assumption that the orangutan and African apes diverged 13 million years ago, we obtained a divergence time for humans and chimpanzees of 4.9 million years. This divergence time permitted calibration of the synonymous substitution rate (3.89 x 10(-8)/site per year). To obtain the substitution rate in the displacement (D)-loop region, we compared the three human mtDNAs and measured the relative abundance of substitutions in the D-loop region and at synonymous sites. The estimated substitution rate in the D-loop region was 7.00 x 10(-8)/site per year. Using both synonymous and D-loop substitutions, we inferred the age of the last common ancestor of the human mtDNAs as 143,000 +/- 18,000 years. The shallow ancestry of human mtDNAs, together with the observation that the African sequence is the most diverged among humans, strongly supports the recent African origin of modern humans, Homo sapiens sapiens. PMID:7530363

The influence of children's pain memories on subsequent pain experience.

PubMed

Noel, Melanie; Chambers, Christine T; McGrath, Patrick J; Klein, Raymond M; Stewart, Sherry H

2012-08-01

Healthy children are often required to repeatedly undergo painful medical procedures (eg, immunizations). Although memory is often implicated in children's reactions to future pain, there is a dearth of research directly examining the relationship between the 2. The current study investigated the influence of children's memories for a novel pain stimulus on their subsequent pain experience. One hundred ten healthy children (60 boys) between the ages of 8 and 12 years completed a laboratory pain task and provided pain ratings. Two weeks later, children provided pain ratings based on their memories as well as their expectancies about future pain. One month following the initial laboratory visit, children again completed the pain task and provided pain ratings. Results showed that children's memory of pain intensity was a better predictor of subsequent pain reporting than their actual initial reporting of pain intensity, and mediated the relationship between initial and subsequent pain reporting. Children who had negatively estimated pain memories developed expectations of greater pain prior to a subsequent pain experience and showed greater increases in pain ratings over time than children who had accurate or positively estimated pain memories. These findings highlight the influence of pain memories on healthy children's expectations of future pain and subsequent pain experiences and extend predictive models of subsequent pain reporting. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of bias-corrected covariance estimators for MMRM analysis in longitudinal data with dropouts.

PubMed

Gosho, Masahiko; Hirakawa, Akihiro; Noma, Hisashi; Maruo, Kazushi; Sato, Yasunori

2017-10-01

In longitudinal clinical trials, some subjects will drop out before completing the trial, so their measurements towards the end of the trial are not obtained. Mixed-effects models for repeated measures (MMRM) analysis with "unstructured" (UN) covariance structure are increasingly common as a primary analysis for group comparisons in these trials. Furthermore, model-based covariance estimators have been routinely used for testing the group difference and estimating confidence intervals of the difference in the MMRM analysis using the UN covariance. However, using the MMRM analysis with the UN covariance could lead to convergence problems for numerical optimization, especially in trials with a small-sample size. Although the so-called sandwich covariance estimator is robust to misspecification of the covariance structure, its performance deteriorates in settings with small-sample size. We investigated the performance of the sandwich covariance estimator and covariance estimators adjusted for small-sample bias proposed by Kauermann and Carroll ( J Am Stat Assoc 2001; 96: 1387-1396) and Mancl and DeRouen ( Biometrics 2001; 57: 126-134) fitting simpler covariance structures through a simulation study. In terms of the type 1 error rate and coverage probability of confidence intervals, Mancl and DeRouen's covariance estimator with compound symmetry, first-order autoregressive (AR(1)), heterogeneous AR(1), and antedependence structures performed better than the original sandwich estimator and Kauermann and Carroll's estimator with these structures in the scenarios where the variance increased across visits. The performance based on Mancl and DeRouen's estimator with these structures was nearly equivalent to that based on the Kenward-Roger method for adjusting the standard errors and degrees of freedom with the UN structure. The model-based covariance estimator with the UN structure under unadjustment of the degrees of freedom, which is frequently used in applications, resulted in substantial inflation of the type 1 error rate. We recommend the use of Mancl and DeRouen's estimator in MMRM analysis if the number of subjects completing is ( n + 5) or less, where n is the number of planned visits. Otherwise, the use of Kenward and Roger's method with UN structure should be the best way.

Using re-randomization to increase the recruitment rate in clinical trials - an assessment of three clinical areas.

PubMed

Kahan, Brennan C

2016-12-13

Patient recruitment in clinical trials is often challenging, and as a result, many trials are stopped early due to insufficient recruitment. The re-randomization design allows patients to be re-enrolled and re-randomized for each new treatment episode that they experience. Because it allows multiple enrollments for each patient, this design has been proposed as a way to increase the recruitment rate in clinical trials. However, it is unknown to what extent recruitment could be increased in practice. We modelled the expected recruitment rate for parallel-group and re-randomization trials in different settings based on estimates from real trials and datasets. We considered three clinical areas: in vitro fertilization, severe asthma exacerbations, and acute sickle cell pain crises. We compared the two designs in terms of the expected time to complete recruitment, and the sample size recruited over a fixed recruitment period. Across the different scenarios we considered, we estimated that re-randomization could reduce the expected time to complete recruitment by between 4 and 22 months (relative reductions of 19% and 45%), or increase the sample size recruited over a fixed recruitment period by between 29% and 171%. Re-randomization can increase recruitment most for trials with a short follow-up period, a long trial recruitment duration, and patients with high rates of treatment episodes. Re-randomization has the potential to increase the recruitment rate in certain settings, and could lead to quicker and more efficient trials in these scenarios.

Reirradiation of tumors in cats and dogs.

PubMed

Turrel, J M; Théon, A P

1988-08-15

Fifty-one cats and dogs with tumor recurrence after irradiation were treated with a second course of radiotherapy, using either teletherapy or brachytherapy. Eighty-six percent of the tumors had partial or complete response at 2 months after reirradiation. Tumor response was significantly (P = 0.041) affected when the interval between the 2 courses of irradiation was greater than 5 months. The estimated local tumor control rate was 38% at 1 year after reirradiation. Of all the factors examined, complete response at 2 months, reirradiation field size less than or equal to 10 cm2, and reirradiation dose greater than 40 gray emerged as predictors of local tumor control. The estimated overall survival rate was 47% at 2 years. Tumor location had a significant (P = 0.001) influence on overall survival; animals with cutaneous tumors had the longest survival times, and those with oral tumors had the shortest survival times. The other significant (P = 0.001) factor affecting overall survival time was the field size of the reirradiated site. Estimated survival time after reirradiation was 41% at 1 year. Favorable prognostic indicators were complete response at 2 months and location of tumor; animals with skin tumors had a favorable prognosis. The acute effects of reirradiation on normal tissues were acceptable, but 12% of the animals had severe delayed complications. Significant risk of complications after reirradiation was associated with squamous cell carcinoma (P = 0.015) and reirradiated field size greater than 30 cm2 (P = 0.056). When the interval between irradiations was greater than 5 months, the risk of complications was significantly (P = 0.022) lower.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The 'Own Children' fertility estimation procedure: a reappraisal.

PubMed

Avery, Christopher; St Clair, Travis; Levin, Michael; Hill, Kenneth

2013-07-01

The Full Birth History has become the dominant source of estimates of fertility levels and trends for countries lacking complete birth registration. An alternative, the 'Own Children' method, derives fertility estimates from household age distributions, but is now rarely used, partly because of concerns about its accuracy. We compared the estimates from these two procedures by applying them to 56 recent Demographic and Health Surveys. On average, 'Own Children' estimates of recent total fertility rates are 3 per cent lower than birth-history estimates. Much of this difference stems from selection bias in the collection of birth histories: women with more children are more likely to be interviewed. We conclude that full birth histories overestimate total fertility, and that the 'Own Children' method gives estimates of total fertility that may better reflect overall national fertility. We recommend the routine application of the 'Own Children' method to census and household survey data to estimate fertility levels and trends.

Longitudinal associations between different dementia diagnoses and medication use jointly accounting for dropout.

PubMed

Agogo, George O; Ramsey, Christine M; Gnjidic, Danijela; Moga, Daniela C; Allore, Heather

2018-04-18

ABSTRACTBackground:Longitudinal studies of older adults are characterized by high dropout rates, multimorbid conditions, and multiple medication use, especially proximal to death. We studied the association between multiple medication use and incident dementia diagnoses including Alzheimer's disease (AD), vascular dementia (VD), and Lewy-body dementia (LBD), simultaneously accounting for dropout. Using the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center data with three years of follow-up, a set of covariate-adjusted models that ignore dropout was fit to complete-case data, and to the whole-cohort data. Additionally, covariate-adjusted joint models with shared random effects accounting for dropout were fit to the whole-cohort data. Multiple medication use was defined as polypharmacy (⩾ five medications), hyperpolypharmacy (⩾ ten medications), and total number of medications. Incident diagnoses were 2,032 for AD, 135 for VD, and 139 for LBD. Percentages of dropout at the end of follow-up were as follows: 71.8% for AD, 81.5% for VD, and 77.7% for LBD. The odds ratio (OR) estimate for hyperpolypharmacy among those with LBD versus AD was 2.19 (0.78, 6.15) when estimated using complete-case data and 3.00 (1.66, 5.40) using whole-cohort data. The OR reduced to 1.41 (0.76, 2.64) when estimated from the joint model accounting for dropout. The OR for polypharmacy using complete-case data differed from the estimates using whole-cohort data. The OR for dementia diagnoses on total number of medications was similar, but non-significant when estimated using complete-case data. Reasons for dropout should be investigated and appropriate statistical methods should be applied to reduce bias in longitudinal studies among high-risk dementia cohorts.

Using community-based reporting of vital events to monitor child mortality: Lessons from rural Ghana.

PubMed

Helleringer, Stephane; Arhinful, Daniel; Abuaku, Benjamin; Humes, Michael; Wilson, Emily; Marsh, Andrew; Clermont, Adrienne; Black, Robert E; Bryce, Jennifer; Amouzou, Agbessi

2018-01-01

Reducing neonatal and child mortality is a key component of the health-related sustainable development goal (SDG), but most low and middle income countries lack data to monitor child mortality on an annual basis. We tested a mortality monitoring system based on the continuous recording of pregnancies, births and deaths by trained community-based volunteers (CBV). This project was implemented in 96 clusters located in three districts of the Northern Region of Ghana. Community-based volunteers (CBVs) were selected from these clusters and were trained in recording all pregnancies, births, and deaths among children under 5 in their catchment areas. Data collection lasted from January 2012 through September 2013. All CBVs transmitted tallies of recorded births and deaths to the Ghana Birth and deaths registry each month, except in one of the study districts (approximately 80% reporting). Some events were reported only several months after they had occurred. We assessed the completeness and accuracy of CBV data by comparing them to retrospective full pregnancy histories (FPH) collected during a census of the same clusters conducted in October-December 2013. We conducted all analyses separately by district, as well as for the combined sample of all districts. During the 21-month implementation period, the CBVs reported a total of 2,819 births and 137 under-five deaths. Among the latter, there were 84 infant deaths (55 neonatal deaths and 29 post-neonatal deaths). Comparison of the CBV data with FPH data suggested that CBVs significantly under-estimated child mortality: the estimated under-5 mortality rate according to CBV data was only 2/3 of the rate estimated from FPH data (95% Confidence Interval for the ratio of the two rates = 51.7 to 81.4). The discrepancies between the CBV and FPH estimates of infant and neonatal mortality were more limited, but varied significantly across districts. In northern Ghana, a community-based data collection systems relying on volunteers did not yield accurate estimates of child mortality rates. Additional implementation research is needed to improve the timeliness, completeness and accuracy of such systems. Enhancing pregnancy monitoring, in particular, may be an essential step to improve the measurement of neonatal mortality.

Mass loss in HR 1040 /A0 Ia/ - Analysis of Mg II lambda 2802 and H-alpha

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kunasz, P. B.; Morrison, N. D.; Spressart, B.

1983-01-01

It is pointed out that International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) data for several early A type supergiants are now available to complement the ground-based spectroscopic data available for these bright stars. An examination of the resonance doublet of Mg II in the A type supergiants reveals that HR 1040 (HD 21389) is the only star in the observational literature in which a violet-shifted, deep absorption line is present without complete saturation. From an unsaturated profile, a good estimate of Mg(+) density can be found by means of accurate radiative transfer calculations. A relation can then be derived between mass loss rate and ionization balance. When certain velocity-related quantities can be estimated from a Mg II line profile, the H-alpha provides an estimate of the mass loss rate. The present investigation is concerned with an application of these diagnostics to HR 1040.

Impact of different privacy conditions and incentives on survey response rate, participant representativeness, and disclosure of sensitive information: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Murdoch, Maureen; Simon, Alisha Baines; Polusny, Melissa Anderson; Bangerter, Ann Kay; Grill, Joseph Patrick; Noorbaloochi, Siamak; Partin, Melissa Ruth

2014-07-16

Anonymous survey methods appear to promote greater disclosure of sensitive or stigmatizing information compared to non-anonymous methods. Higher disclosure rates have traditionally been interpreted as being more accurate than lower rates. We examined the impact of 3 increasingly private mailed survey conditions-ranging from potentially identifiable to completely anonymous-on survey response and on respondents' representativeness of the underlying sampling frame, completeness in answering sensitive survey items, and disclosure of sensitive information. We also examined the impact of 2 incentives ($10 versus $20) on these outcomes. A 3X2 factorial, randomized controlled trial of 324 representatively selected, male Gulf War I era veterans who had applied for United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) disability benefits. Men were asked about past sexual assault experiences, childhood abuse, combat, other traumas, mental health symptoms, and sexual orientation. We used a novel technique, the pre-merged questionnaire, to link anonymous responses to administrative data. Response rates ranged from 56.0% to 63.3% across privacy conditions (p = 0.49) and from 52.8% to 68.1% across incentives (p = 0.007). Respondents' characteristics differed by privacy and by incentive assignments, with completely anonymous respondents and $20 respondents appearing least different from their non-respondent counterparts. Survey completeness did not differ by privacy or by incentive. No clear pattern of disclosing sensitive information by privacy condition or by incentive emerged. For example, although all respondents came from the same sampling frame, estimates of sexual abuse ranged from 13.6% to 33.3% across privacy conditions, with the highest estimate coming from the intermediate privacy condition (p = 0.007). Greater privacy and larger incentives do not necessarily result in higher disclosure rates of sensitive information than lesser privacy and lower incentives. Furthermore, disclosure of sensitive or stigmatizing information under differing privacy conditions may have less to do with promoting or impeding participants' "honesty" or "accuracy" than with selectively recruiting or attracting subpopulations that are higher or lower in such experiences. Pre-merged questionnaires bypassed many historical limitations of anonymous surveys and hold promise for exploring non-response issues in future research.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spriggs, G D

In a previous paper, the composite exposure rate conversion factor (ECF) for nuclear fallout was calculated using a simple theoretical photon-transport model. The theoretical model was used to fill in the gaps in the FGR-12 table generated by ORNL. The FGR-12 table contains the individual conversion factors for approximate 1000 radionuclides. However, in order to calculate the exposure rate during the first 30 minutes following a nuclear detonation, the conversion factors for approximately 2000 radionuclides are needed. From a human-effects standpoint, it is also necessary to have the dose rate conversion factors (DCFs) for all 2000 radionuclides. The DCFs aremore » used to predict the whole-body dose rates that would occur if a human were standing in a radiation field of known exposure rate. As calculated by ORNL, the whole-body dose rate (rem/hr) is approximately 70% of the exposure rate (R/hr) at one meter above the surface. Hence, the individual DCFs could be estimated by multiplying the individual ECFs by 0.7. Although this is a handy rule-of-thumb, a more consistent (and perhaps, more accurate) method of estimating the individual DCFs for the missing radionuclides in the FGR-12 table is to use the linear relationship between DCF and total gamma energy released per decay. This relationship is shown in Figure 1. The DCFs for individual organs in the body can also be estimated from the estimated whole-body DCF. Using the DCFs given FGR-12, the ratio of the organ-specific DCFs to the whole-body DCF were plotted as a function of the whole-body DCF. From these plots, the asymptotic ratios were obtained (see Table 1). Using these asymptotic ratios, the organ-specific DCFs can be estimated using the estimated whole-body DCF for each of the missing radionuclides in the FGR-12 table. Although this procedure for estimating the organ-specific DCFs may over-estimate the value for some low gamma-energy emitters, having a finite value for the organ-specific DCFs in the table is probably better than having no value at all. A summary of the complete ECF and DCF values are given in Table 2.« less

Meta-analysis on the association between pathologic complete response and triple-negative breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

PubMed

Wu, Kunpeng; Yang, Qiaozhu; Liu, Yi; Wu, Aibing; Yang, Zhixiong

2014-04-15

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a special subtype of breast cancer that is characterized by poor prognosis, strong tumor invasion and a high pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). The pCR rate is a prognostic factor for TNBC. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between pCR and TNBC after NAC and originally tried to identify factors related to achieving pCR for TNBC using a meta-analysis. We systematically searched the literature for pCR and breast cancer after NAC and carefully identified eligibility criteria. The association between pCR and breast cancer subtypes was estimated using Review Manager, while pCR rates for TNBC and non-TNBC were determined using Meta-Analyst. This analysis included a total of 9,460 cases from 27 studies. The summary odds ratio estimating the relationship between pCR and breast cancer subtypes (TNBC vs non-TNBC) was 3.02 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.66 to 3.42). The TNBC pCR rate was 28.9% (95% CI, 27.0 to 30.8%) and the non-TNBC was 12.5% (95% CI, 11.7 to 13.4%). From subgroup analyses, we identified the factors associated with the highest pCR rates for TNBC. TNBC has a higher pCR rate than non-TNBC. In the NAC setting, these factors of platinum-containing, more than six cycles, four kinds of drugs, 16 weeks' treatment duration and sequential chemotherapy may contribute to increasing the pCR rate.

Discount rates in risk versus money and money versus money tradeoffs.

PubMed

Alberini, Anna; Chiabai, Aline

2007-04-01

We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.

Real-world persistence with fingolimod for the treatment of multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kantor, Daniel; Johnson, Kristen; Vieira, Maria Cecilia; Signorovitch, James; Li, Nanxin; Gao, Wei; Koo, Valerie; Duchesneau, Emilie; Herrera, Vivian

2018-05-15

To systematically review reports of fingolimod persistence in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) across data sources and practice settings, and to develop a consensus estimate of the 1-year real-world persistence rate. A systematic literature review was conducted (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and abstracts from selected conferences [2013-2015]) to identify observational studies reporting 1-year fingolimod persistence among adult patients with RRMS (sample size ≥50). A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to estimate a synthesized 1-year persistence rate and to assess heterogeneity across studies. Of 527 publications identified, 25 real-world studies reporting 1-year fingolimod persistence rates were included. The studies included patients from different data sources (e.g., administrative claims, electronic medical records, or registries), used different definitions of persistence (e.g., based on prescriptions refills, patient report, or prescription orders), and spanned multiple geographic regions. Reported 1-year persistence rates ranged from 72%-100%, and exhibited statistical evidence of heterogeneity (I 2  = 93% of the variability due to heterogeneity across studies). The consensus estimate of the 1-year persistence rate was 82% (95% confidence interval: 79%-85%). Across heterogeneous study designs and patient populations found in real-world studies, the consensus 1-year fingolimod persistence rate exceeded 80%, consistent with persistence rates identified in the recently-completed trial, PREFERMS. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The performance of the Congruence Among Distance Matrices (CADM) test in phylogenetic analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background CADM is a statistical test used to estimate the level of Congruence Among Distance Matrices. It has been shown in previous studies to have a correct rate of type I error and good power when applied to dissimilarity matrices and to ultrametric distance matrices. Contrary to most other tests of incongruence used in phylogenetic analysis, the null hypothesis of the CADM test assumes complete incongruence of the phylogenetic trees instead of congruence. In this study, we performed computer simulations to assess the type I error rate and power of the test. It was applied to additive distance matrices representing phylogenies and to genetic distance matrices obtained from nucleotide sequences of different lengths that were simulated on randomly generated trees of varying sizes, and under different evolutionary conditions. Results Our results showed that the test has an accurate type I error rate and good power. As expected, power increased with the number of objects (i.e., taxa), the number of partially or completely congruent matrices and the level of congruence among distance matrices. Conclusions Based on our results, we suggest that CADM is an excellent candidate to test for congruence and, when present, to estimate its level in phylogenomic studies where numerous genes are analysed simultaneously. PMID:21388552

CO2 and CO emission rates from three forest fire controlled experiments in Western Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, J. A., Jr.; Amaral, S. S.; Costa, M. A. M.; Soares Neto, T. G.; Veras, C. A. G.; Costa, F. S.; van Leeuwen, T. T.; Krieger Filho, G. C.; Tourigny, E.; Forti, M. C.; Fostier, A. H.; Siqueira, M. B.; Santos, J. C.; Lima, B. A.; Cascão, P.; Ortega, G.; Frade, E. F., Jr.

2016-06-01

Forests represent an important role in the control of atmospheric emissions through carbon capture. However, in forest fires, the carbon stored during photosynthesis is released into the atmosphere. The carbon quantification, in forest burning, is important for the development of measures for its control. The aim of this study was to quantify CO2 and CO emissions of forest fires in Western Amazonia. In this paper, results are described of forest fire experiments conducted in Cruzeiro do Sul and Rio Branco, state of Acre, and Candeias do Jamari, state of Rondônia, Brazil. These cities are located in the Western portion of the Brazilian Amazon region. The biomass content per hectare, in the virgin forest, was measured by indirect methods using formulas with parameters of forest inventories in the central hectare of the test site. The combustion completeness was estimated by randomly selecting 10% of the total logs and twelve 2 × 2 m2 areas along three transects and examining their consumption rates by the fire. The logs were used to determine the combustion completeness of the larger materials (characteristic diameters larger than 10 cm) and the 2 × 2 m2 areas to determine the combustion completeness of small-size materials (those with characteristic diameters lower than 10 cm) and the. The overall biomass consumption by fire was estimated to be 40.0%, 41.2% and 26.2%, in Cruzeiro do Sul, Rio Branco and Candeias do Jamari, respectively. Considering that the combustion gases of carbon in open fires contain approximately 90.0% of CO2 and 10.0% of CO in volumetric basis, the average emission rates of these gases by the burning process, in the three sites, were estimated as 191 ± 46.7 t ha-1 and 13.5 ± 3.3 t ha-1, respectively.

Impact of magnitude uncertainties on seismic catalogue properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leptokaropoulos, K. M.; Adamaki, A. K.; Roberts, R. G.; Gkarlaouni, C. G.; Paradisopoulou, P. M.

2018-05-01

Catalogue-based studies are of central importance in seismological research, to investigate the temporal, spatial and size distribution of earthquakes in specified study areas. Methods for estimating the fundamental catalogue parameters like the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b-value and the completeness magnitude (Mc) are well established and routinely applied. However, the magnitudes reported in seismicity catalogues contain measurement uncertainties which may significantly distort the estimation of the derived parameters. In this study, we use numerical simulations of synthetic data sets to assess the reliability of different methods for determining b-value and Mc, assuming the G-R law validity. After contaminating the synthetic catalogues with Gaussian noise (with selected standard deviations), the analysis is performed for numerous data sets of different sample size (N). The noise introduced to the data generally leads to a systematic overestimation of magnitudes close to and above Mc. This fact causes an increase of the average number of events above Mc, which in turn leads to an apparent decrease of the b-value. This may result to a significant overestimation of seismicity rate even well above the actual completeness level. The b-value can in general be reliably estimated even for relatively small data sets (N < 1000) when only magnitudes higher than the actual completeness level are used. Nevertheless, a correction of the total number of events belonging in each magnitude class (i.e. 0.1 unit) should be considered, to deal with the magnitude uncertainty effect. Because magnitude uncertainties (here with the form of Gaussian noise) are inevitable in all instrumental catalogues, this finding is fundamental for seismicity rate and seismic hazard assessment analyses. Also important is that for some data analyses significant bias cannot necessarily be avoided by choosing a high Mc value for analysis. In such cases, there may be a risk of severe miscalculation of seismicity rate regardless the selected magnitude threshold, unless possible bias is properly assessed.

Self-constrained inversion of microgravity data along a segment of the Irpinia fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo Re, Davide; Florio, Giovanni; Ferranti, Luigi; Ialongo, Simone; Castiello, Gabriella

2016-01-01

A microgravity survey was completed to precisely locate and better characterize the near-surface geometry of a recent fault with small throw in a mountainous area in the Southern Apennines (Italy). The site is on a segment of the Irpinia fault, which is the source of the M6.9 1980 earthquake. This fault cuts a few meter of Mesozoic carbonate bedrock and its younger, mostly Holocene continental deposits cover. The amplitude of the complete Bouguer anomaly along two profiles across the fault is about 50 μGal. The data were analyzed and interpreted according to a self-constrained strategy, where some rapid estimation of source parameters was later used as constraint for the inversion. The fault has been clearly identified and localized in its horizontal position and depth. Interesting features in the overburden have been identified and their interpretation has allowed us to estimate the fault slip-rate, which is consistent with independent geological estimates.

Estimating the Term Structure With a Semiparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model: An Application to Corporate Bonds.

PubMed

Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Ensor, Katherine B; Rosner, Gary L

2011-06-01

The term structure of interest rates is used to price defaultable bonds and credit derivatives, as well as to infer the quality of bonds for risk management purposes. We introduce a model that jointly estimates term structures by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model with a prior probability model based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The modeling methodology borrows strength across term structures for purposes of estimation. The main advantage of our framework is its ability to produce reliable estimators at the company level even when there are only a few bonds per company. After describing the proposed model, we discuss an empirical application in which the term structure of 197 individual companies is estimated. The sample of 197 consists of 143 companies with only one or two bonds. In-sample and out-of-sample tests are used to quantify the improvement in accuracy that results from approximating the term structure of corporate bonds with estimators by company rather than by credit rating, the latter being a popular choice in the financial literature. A complete description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for the proposed model is available as Supplementary Material.

Estimating the Term Structure With a Semiparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model: An Application to Corporate Bonds1

PubMed Central

Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Ensor, Katherine B.; Rosner, Gary L.

2011-01-01

The term structure of interest rates is used to price defaultable bonds and credit derivatives, as well as to infer the quality of bonds for risk management purposes. We introduce a model that jointly estimates term structures by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model with a prior probability model based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The modeling methodology borrows strength across term structures for purposes of estimation. The main advantage of our framework is its ability to produce reliable estimators at the company level even when there are only a few bonds per company. After describing the proposed model, we discuss an empirical application in which the term structure of 197 individual companies is estimated. The sample of 197 consists of 143 companies with only one or two bonds. In-sample and out-of-sample tests are used to quantify the improvement in accuracy that results from approximating the term structure of corporate bonds with estimators by company rather than by credit rating, the latter being a popular choice in the financial literature. A complete description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for the proposed model is available as Supplementary Material. PMID:21765566

Method for Estimating Annual Atrazine Use for Counties in the Conterminous United States, 1992-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelin, Gail P.; Stone, Wesley W.

2010-01-01

A method was developed to estimate annual atrazine use during 1992 to 2007 on sixteen crops and four agricultural land uses. For each year, atrazine use was estimated for all counties in the conterminous United States (except California) by combining (1) proprietary data from the Doane Marketing Research-Kynetec (DMRK) AgroTrak database on the mass of atrazine applied to agricultural crops, (2) county harvested crop acreage, by county, from the 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007 Censuses of Agriculture, and (3) annual harvested crop acreage from National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) for non-Census years. DMRK estimates of pesticide use on individual crops were derived from surveys of major field crops and selected specialty crops in multicounty areas referred to as Crop Reporting Districts (CRD). The CRD-level atrazine-use estimates were disaggregated to obtain county-level application rates by dividing the mass (pounds) of pesticides applied to a crop by the acreage of that crop in the CRD to yield a rate per harvested acre. When atrazine-use estimates were not available for a CRD, crop, or year, an estimated rate was developed following a hierarchy of decision rules that checked first for the availability of a crop application rate from surveyed atrazine application rate(s) for adjacent CRDs for a specific year, and second, the rates from surveyed CRDs within for U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Production Regions for a specific year or multiple years. The estimation method applied linear interpolation to estimate crop acreage for years when harvested acres for a crop and county were not reported in either the Census of Agriculture or the NASS database, but were reported by these data sources for other years for that crop and county. Data for atrazine use for the counties in California was obtained from farmers' reports of pesticide use collected and published by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation-Pesticide Use Reporting (DPR-PUR) because these data are more complete than DMRK survey data. National and state annual atrazine-use totals derived by this method were compared with other published pesticide-use estimates and were highly correlated. The method developed is designed to be applicable to other pesticides for which there are similar data; however, for some pesticides that are applied to specialty crops, fewer surveys are usually available to estimate application rates and there are a greater number of years with unreported crop acreage, potentially resulting in greater uncertainty in use

How accurate are medical oncologists' impressions of management of metastatic colorectal cancer in Australia?

PubMed

Au, Lewis; Turner, Natalie; Wong, Hui-Li; Field, Kathryn; Lee, Belinda; Boadle, David; Cooray, Prasad; Karikios, Deme; Kosmider, Suzanne; Lipton, Lara; Nott, Louise; Parente, Phillip; Tie, Jeanne; Tran, Ben; Wong, Rachel; Yip, Desmond; Shapiro, Jeremy; Gibbs, Peter

2018-04-01

Current efforts to understand patient management in clinical practice are largely based on clinician surveys with uncertain reliability. The TRACC (Treatment of Recurrent and Advanced Colorectal Cancer) database is a multisite registry collecting comprehensive treatment and outcome data on consecutive metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients at multiple sites across Australia. This study aims to determine the accuracy of oncologists' impressions of real-word practice by comparing clinicians' estimates to data captured by TRACC. Nineteen medical oncologists from nine hospitals contributing data to TRACC completed a 34-question survey regarding their impression of the management and outcomes of mCRC at their own practice and other hospitals contributing to the database. Responses were then compared with TRACC data to determine how closely their impressions reflected actual practice. Data on 1300 patients with mCRC were available. Median clinician estimated frequency of KRAS testing within 6 months of diagnosis was 80% (range: 20-100%); the TRACC documented rate was 43%. Clinicians generally overestimated the rates of first-line treatment, particularly in patients over 75 years. Estimate for bevacizumab in first line was 60% (35-80%) versus 49% in TRACC. Estimated rate for liver resection varied substantially (5-35%), and the estimated median (27%) was inconsistent with the TRACC rate (12%). Oncologists generally felt their practice was similar to other hospitals. Oncologists' estimates of current clinical practice varied and were discordant with the TRACC database, often with a tendency to overestimate interventions. Clinician surveys alone do not reliably capture contemporary clinical practices in mCRC. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The Development of the Cleft Aesthetic Rating Scale: A New Rating Scale for the Assessment of Nasolabial Appearance in Complete Unilateral Cleft Lip and Palate Patients.

PubMed

Mosmuller, David G M; Mennes, Lisette M; Prahl, Charlotte; Kramer, Gem J C; Disse, Melissa A; van Couwelaar, Gijs M; Niessen, Frank B; Griot, J P W Don

2017-09-01

  The development of the Cleft Aesthetic Rating Scale, a simple and reliable photographic reference scale for the assessment of nasolabial appearance in complete unilateral cleft lip and palate patients.   A blind retrospective analysis of photographs of cleft lip and palate patients was performed with this new rating scale.   VU Medical Center Amsterdam and the Academic Center for Dentistry of Amsterdam.   Complete unilateral cleft lip and palate patients at the age of 6 years.   Photographs that showed the highest interobserver agreement in earlier assessments were selected for the photographic reference scale. Rules were attached to the rating scale to provide a guideline for the assessment and improve interobserver reliability. Cropped photographs revealing only the nasolabial area were assessed by six observers using this new Cleft Aesthetic Rating Scale in two different sessions.   Photographs of 62 children (6 years of age, 44 boys and 18 girls) were assessed. The interobserver reliability for the nose and lip together was 0.62, obtained with the intraclass correlation coefficient. To measure the internal consistency, a Cronbach alpha of .91 was calculated. The estimated reliability for three observers was .84, obtained with the Spearman Brown formula.   A new, easy to use, and reliable scoring system with a photographic reference scale is presented in this study.

The Dark Side of Saturn's Gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iess, L.; Racioppa, P.; Durante, D.; Mariani, M., Jr.; Anabtawi, A.; Armstrong, J. W.; Gomez Casajus, L.; Tortora, P.; Zannoni, M.

2017-12-01

On July 19, 2017 the Cassini spacecraft successfully completed its sixth and last pericenter pass devoted to the investigation of Saturn's interior structure and rings. During each pass the spacecraft was tracked for about 24 hours by the antennas of NASA's Deep Space Network and ESA's ESTRACK network, providing high quality measurements of the spacecraft range rate. We report on a preliminary estimate of Saturn's gravity field and ring mass inferred from range rate observables, and discuss the surprising features of our findings.

Cumulative live birth rates after one or more complete cycles of IVF: a population-based study of linked cycle data from 178,898 women.

PubMed

McLernon, David J; Maheshwari, Abha; Lee, Amanda J; Bhattacharya, Siladitya

2016-03-01

What is the chance of a live birth following one or more linked complete cycles of IVF (including ICSI)? The chance of a live birth after three complete cycles of IVF was 42.3% for treatment commencing from 1999 to 2007. IVF success has generally been reported on the basis of live birth rates after a single episode of treatment resulting in the transfer of a fresh embryo. This fails to capture the real chance of having a baby after a number of complete cycles-each involving the replacement of fresh as well as frozen-thawed embryos. Population-based observational cohort study of 178 898 women between 1992 and 2007. Participants included all women who commenced IVF treatment at a licenced clinic in the UK as recorded in the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) national database. Exclusion criteria included women whose treatment involved donor insemination, egg donation, surrogacy and the transfer of more than three embryos. Cumulative rates of live birth, term (>37 weeks) singleton live birth, and multiple pregnancy were estimated for two time-periods, 1992-1998 and 1999-2007. Conservative estimates assumed that women who did not return for IVF would not have the outcome of interest while optimal estimates assumed that these women would have similar outcome rates to those who continued IVF. A total of 71 551 women commenced IVF treatment during 1992-1998 and an additional 107 347 during 1999-2007. After the third complete IVF cycle (defined as three fresh IVF treatments-including replacement of any surplus frozen-thawed embryos), the conservative CLBR in women who commenced IVF during 1992-1998 was 30.8% increasing to 42.3% during 1999-2007. The optimal CLBRs were 44.6 and 57.1%, respectively. After eight complete cycles the optimal CLBR was 82.4% in the latter time period. The conservative rate for multiple pregnancy per pregnant woman fell from 31.9% during the earlier time period to 26.2% during the latter. Linkage of all IVF treatments to individual women was conducted. However, it was not possible to identify with certainty in all cases the episode of ovarian stimulation which generated some of the frozen embryos. Cumulative live birth rates could not be calculated for women who started treatment beyond 2007 as follow-up data were incomplete in some of them. Following a change in legislation in 2008, linked data were only made available for research in women who gave formal consent for this purpose. BMI and ethnicity could not be reported: these demographics are not recorded in the HFEA database. Our results demonstrate, at a national level, the chances of live birth in couples undergoing a number of complete (fresh and frozen) IVF cycles. They reflect improvements in reproductive technology and a more conservative embryo transfer policy. Although most couples in the UK still do not receive three complete IVF cycles; assuming no barriers to continuation of IVF treatment, around 83% of women receiving IVF would achieve a live birth by the eighth complete cycle, similar to the natural live birth rate in a non-contraception practising population. Our results support the call from NICE to develop consistent IVF policies based on three complete cycles. This work was funded by a Chief Scientist Office Postdoctoral Training Fellowship in Health Services Research and Health of the Public Research (Ref PDF/12/06). The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Chief Scientist Office. S.B. reports grants from Chief Scientist Office Scotland during the conduct of the study. His institution has received support from Pharmaceutical companies (for educational seminars), which is not related to the submitted work. D.J.M., A.M. and A.J.L. have no conflicts of interest to declare. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Complete genome sequences of two strains of Treponema pallidum subsp. pertenue from Ghana, Africa: Identical genome sequences in samples isolated more than 7 years apart.

PubMed

Strouhal, Michal; Mikalová, Lenka; Havlíčková, Pavla; Tenti, Paolo; Čejková, Darina; Rychlík, Ivan; Bruisten, Sylvia; Šmajs, David

2017-09-01

Treponema pallidum subsp. pertenue (TPE) is the causative agent of yaws, a multi-stage disease, endemic in tropical regions of Africa, Asia, Oceania, and South America. To date, four TPE strains have been completely sequenced including three TPE strains of human origin (Samoa D, CDC-2, and Gauthier) and one TPE strain (Fribourg-Blanc) isolated from a baboon. All TPE strains are highly similar to T. pallidum subsp. pallidum (TPA) strains. The mutation rate in syphilis and related treponemes has not been experimentally determined yet. Complete genomes of two TPE strains, CDC 2575 and Ghana-051, that infected patients in Ghana and were isolated in 1980 and 1988, respectively, were sequenced and analyzed. Both strains had identical consensus genome nucleotide sequences raising the question whether TPE CDC 2575 and Ghana-051 represent two different strains. Several lines of evidence support the fact that both strains represent independent samples including regions showing intrastrain heterogeneity (13 and 5 intrastrain heterogeneous sites in TPE Ghana-051 and TPE CDC 2575, respectively). Four of these heterogeneous sites were found in both genomes but the frequency of alternative alleles differed. The identical consensus genome sequences were used to estimate the upper limit of the yaws treponeme evolution rate, which was 4.1 x 10-10 nucleotide changes per site per generation. The estimated upper limit for the mutation rate of TPE was slightly lower than the mutation rate of E. coli, which was determined during a long-term experiment. Given the known diversity between TPA and TPE genomes and the assumption that both TPA and TPE have a similar mutation rate, the most recent common ancestor of syphilis and yaws treponemes appears to be more than ten thousand years old and likely even older.

Estimates of success in patients with sciatica due to lumbar disc herniation depend upon outcome measure.

PubMed

Haugen, Anne Julsrud; Grøvle, Lars; Brox, Jens Ivar; Natvig, Bård; Keller, Anne; Soldal, Dag; Grotle, Margreth

2011-10-01

The objectives were to estimate the cut-off points for success on different sciatica outcome measures and to determine the success rate after an episode of sciatica by using these cut-offs. A 12-month multicenter observational study was conducted on 466 patients with sciatica and lumbar disc herniation. The cut-off values were estimated by ROC curve analyses using Completely recovered or Much better on a 7-point global change scale as external criterion for success. The cut-off values (references in brackets) at 12 months were leg pain VAS 17.5 (0-100), back pain VAS 22.5 (0-100), Sciatica Bothersomeness Index 6.5 (0-24), Maine-Seattle Back Questionnaire 4.5 (0-12), and the SF-36 subscales bodily pain 51.5, and physical functioning 81.7 (0-100, higher values indicate better health). In conclusion, the success rates at 12 months varied from 49 to 58% depending on the measure used. The proposed cut-offs may facilitate the comparison of success rates across studies.

The Accuracy and Validity of iOS-Based Heart Rate Apps During Moderate to High Intensity Exercise.

PubMed

Bouts, Alexa M; Brackman, Lauren; Martin, Elizabeth; Subasic, Adam M; Potkanowicz, Edward S

2018-01-01

People use their smartphones for everything from web browsing to tracking fitness metrics. However, it is unclear whether smartphone-based apps that use photoplethysmography to measure heart rate are an accurate or valid measure of exercise intensity. Purpose was to determine the accuracy and validity of two iOS-based heart rate monitors, Runtastic Heart Rate Monitor and Pulse Tracker PRO by Runtastic (Runtastic) and Instant Heart Rate+: Heart Rate and Pulse Monitor by Azumio (Instant Heart Rate), when compared to the electrocardiogram (ECG) and Polar® T31 uncoded heart rate monitor from moderate to vigorous intensity exercise. Participants were 15 male and female regularly active college students. Pre-exercise heart rate and blood pressure were recorded and then participants exercised on a stationary bike at a pedal rate of between 50-60 rpms. After completing a warm-up stage at 40% of age estimated maximum heart rate (AEMHR), exercise intensity progressed from 50% of AEMHR through to 85% of AEMHR in eight, 5-minute stages. At the end of each stage, and having achieved steady-state, heart rates were recorded from each apparatus. After completing the final stage, participants completed a cooldown at 40% of their AEMHR. Post-exercise heart rate and blood pressure were also recorded to ensure full recovery to baseline. There was a strong positive correlation between the Polar® monitor and the ECG during all stages. However, there were not strong correlations for either of the smartphone-based apps at any time point. Although there were weak correlations between the smartphone-based apps and ECG and Polar®, further studies need to be conducted to determine if inaccuracy is due to user error (finger placement, finger temperature, etc.) or the technology behind the apps.

The Accuracy and Validity of iOS-Based Heart Rate Apps During Moderate to High Intensity Exercise

PubMed Central

BOUTS, ALEXA M.; BRACKMAN, LAUREN; MARTIN, ELIZABETH; SUBASIC, ADAM M.; POTKANOWICZ, EDWARD S.

2018-01-01

People use their smartphones for everything from web browsing to tracking fitness metrics. However, it is unclear whether smartphone-based apps that use photoplethysmography to measure heart rate are an accurate or valid measure of exercise intensity. Purpose was to determine the accuracy and validity of two iOS-based heart rate monitors, Runtastic Heart Rate Monitor and Pulse Tracker PRO by Runtastic (Runtastic) and Instant Heart Rate+: Heart Rate and Pulse Monitor by Azumio (Instant Heart Rate), when compared to the electrocardiogram (ECG) and Polar® T31 uncoded heart rate monitor from moderate to vigorous intensity exercise. Participants were 15 male and female regularly active college students. Pre-exercise heart rate and blood pressure were recorded and then participants exercised on a stationary bike at a pedal rate of between 50–60 rpms. After completing a warm-up stage at 40% of age estimated maximum heart rate (AEMHR), exercise intensity progressed from 50% of AEMHR through to 85% of AEMHR in eight, 5-minute stages. At the end of each stage, and having achieved steady-state, heart rates were recorded from each apparatus. After completing the final stage, participants completed a cooldown at 40% of their AEMHR. Post-exercise heart rate and blood pressure were also recorded to ensure full recovery to baseline. There was a strong positive correlation between the Polar® monitor and the ECG during all stages. However, there were not strong correlations for either of the smartphone-based apps at any time point. Although there were weak correlations between the smartphone-based apps and ECG and Polar®, further studies need to be conducted to determine if inaccuracy is due to user error (finger placement, finger temperature, etc.) or the technology behind the apps. PMID:29541341

Evaluating the Use of Declustering for Induced Seismicity Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

2016-12-01

The recent dramatic seismicity rate increase in the central and eastern US (CEUS) has motivated the development of seismic hazard assessments for induced seismicity (e.g., Petersen et al., 2016). Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) relies fundamentally on the assumption that seismicity is Poissonian (Cornell, BSSA, 1968); therefore, the earthquake catalogs used in PSHA are typically declustered (e.g., Petersen et al., 2014) even though this may remove earthquakes that may cause damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015; 2016). In some induced earthquake sequences in the CEUS, the standard declustering can remove up to 90% of the sequence, reducing the estimated seismicity rate by a factor of 10 compared to estimates from the complete catalog. In tectonic regions the reduction is often only about a factor of 2. We investigate how three declustering methods treat induced seismicity: the window-based Gardner-Knopoff (GK) algorithm, often used for PSHA (Gardner and Knopoff, BSSA, 1974); the link-based Reasenberg algorithm (Reasenberg, JGR,1985); and a stochastic declustering method based on a space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002). We apply these methods to three catalogs that likely contain some induced seismicity. For the Guy-Greenbrier, AR earthquake swarm from 2010-2013, declustering reduces the seismicity rate by factors of 6-14, depending on the algorithm. In northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas from 2010-2015, the reduction varies from factors of 1.5-20. In the Salton Trough of southern California from 1975-2013, the rate is reduced by factors of 3-20. Stochastic declustering tends to remove the most events, followed by the GK method, while the Reasenberg method removes the fewest. Given that declustering and choice of algorithm have such a large impact on the resulting seismicity rate estimates, we suggest that more accurate hazard assessments may be found using the complete catalog.

Evaluating sedimentation problems in activated sludge treatment plants operating at complete sludge retention time.

PubMed

Amanatidou, Elisavet; Samiotis, Georgios; Trikoilidou, Eleni; Pekridis, George; Taousanidis, Nikolaos

2015-02-01

Zero net sludge growth can be achieved by complete retention of solids in activated sludge wastewater treatment, especially in high strength and biodegradable wastewaters. When increasing the solids retention time, MLSS and MLVSS concentrations reach a plateau phase and observed growth yields values tend to zero (Yobs ≈ 0). In this work, in order to evaluate sedimentation problems arised due to high MLSS concentrations and complete sludge retention operational conditions, two identical innovative slaughterhouse wastewater treatment plants were studied. Measurements of wastewaters' quality characteristics, treatment plant's operational conditions, sludge microscopic analysis and state point analysis were conducted. Results have shown that low COD/Nitrogen ratios increase sludge bulking and flotation phenomena due to accidental denitrification in clarifiers. High return activated sludge rate is essential in complete retention systems as it reduces sludge condensation and hydraulic retention time in the clarifiers. Under certain operational conditions sludge loading rates can greatly exceed literature limit values. The presented methodology is a useful tool for estimation of sedimentation problems encountered in activated sludge wastewater treatment plants with complete retention time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

49 CFR 571.126 - Standard No. 126; Electronic stability control systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... series uses counterclockwise steering, and the other series uses clockwise steering. The maximum time... rate and to estimate its side slip or side slip derivative with respect to time; (4) That has a means... after completion of the sine with dwell steering input (time T0 + 1 in Figure 1) must not exceed 35...

The Croydon Assessment of Learning Study: Prevalence and Educational Identification of Mild Mental Retardation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simonoff, Emily; Pickles, Andrew; Chadwick, Oliver; Gringras, Paul; Wood, Nicky; Higgins, Siobhan; Maney, Julie-Ann; Karia, Nisha; Iqbal, Huma; Moore, Anne

2006-01-01

Background: Mild mental retardation is an enduring and impairing condition. Its prevalence has varied widely across different studies from 0.5 to over 8%, with higher rates in completely ascertained samples. The current study estimates the prevalence of low IQ in the mental retardation range (intellectual disability) in a population sample and…

Criminal Offending and Learning Disabilities in New Zealand Youth: Does Reading Comprehension Predict Recidivism?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rucklidge, Julia J.; McLean, Anthony P.; Bateup, Paula

2013-01-01

Sixty youth (16-19 years) from two youth prison sites participate in a prospective study examining criminal offending and learning disabilities (LD), completing measures of estimated IQ, attention, reading, and mathematical and oral language abilities. Prevalence rates of LDs exceed those of international studies, with 91.67% of the offenders…

Meiotic gene-conversion rate and tract length variation in the human genome.

PubMed

Padhukasahasram, Badri; Rannala, Bruce

2013-02-27

Meiotic recombination occurs in the form of two different mechanisms called crossing-over and gene-conversion and both processes have an important role in shaping genetic variation in populations. Although variation in crossing-over rates has been studied extensively using sperm-typing experiments, pedigree studies and population genetic approaches, our knowledge of variation in gene-conversion parameters (ie, rates and mean tract lengths) remains far from complete. To explore variability in population gene-conversion rates and its relationship to crossing-over rate variation patterns, we have developed and validated using coalescent simulations a comprehensive Bayesian full-likelihood method that can jointly infer crossing-over and gene-conversion rates as well as tract lengths from population genomic data under general variable rate models with recombination hotspots. Here, we apply this new method to SNP data from multiple human populations and attempt to characterize for the first time the fine-scale variation in gene-conversion parameters along the human genome. We find that the estimated ratio of gene-conversion to crossing-over rates varies considerably across genomic regions as well as between populations. However, there is a great degree of uncertainty associated with such estimates. We also find substantial evidence for variation in the mean conversion tract length. The estimated tract lengths did not show any negative relationship with the local heterozygosity levels in our analysis.European Journal of Human Genetics advance online publication, 27 February 2013; doi:10.1038/ejhg.2013.30.

Using Poisson-gamma model to evaluate the duration of recruitment process when historical trials are available.

PubMed

Minois, Nathan; Lauwers-Cances, Valérie; Savy, Stéphanie; Attal, Michel; Andrieu, Sandrine; Anisimov, Vladimir; Savy, Nicolas

2017-10-15

At the design of clinical trial operation, a question of a paramount interest is how long it takes to recruit a given number of patients. Modelling the recruitment dynamics is the necessary step to answer this question. Poisson-gamma model provides very convenient, flexible and realistic approach. This model allows predicting the trial duration using data collected at an interim time with very good accuracy. A natural question arises: how to evaluate the parameters of recruitment model before the trial begins? The question is harder to handle as there are no recruitment data available for this trial. However, if there exist similar completed trials, it is appealing to use data from these trials to investigate feasibility of the recruitment process. In this paper, the authors explore the recruitment data of two similar clinical trials (Intergroupe Francais du Myélome 2005 and 2009). It is shown that the natural idea of plugging the historical rates estimated from the completed trial in the same centres of the new trial for predicting recruitment is not a relevant strategy. In contrast, using the parameters of a gamma distribution of the rates estimated from the completed trial in the recruitment dynamic model of the new trial provides reasonable predictive properties with relevant confidence intervals. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention.

PubMed

Boyd, Matt; Baker, Michael G; Mansoor, Osman D; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Wilson, Nick

2017-01-01

Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, "Scenario A"), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of "Scenario A", or 2.75% of the country's population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for "Scenario A" times three for 26 weeks of border closure-but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). This "proof-of-concept" work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective.

Non-input analysis for incomplete trapping irreversible tracer with PET.

PubMed

Ohya, Tomoyuki; Kikuchi, Tatsuya; Fukumura, Toshimitsu; Zhang, Ming-Rong; Irie, Toshiaki

2013-07-01

When using metabolic trapping type tracers, the tracers are not always trapped in the target tissue; i.e., some are completely trapped in the target, but others can be eliminated from the target tissue at a measurable rate. The tracers that can be eliminated are termed 'incomplete trapping irreversible tracers'. These incomplete trapping irreversible tracers may be clinically useful when the tracer β-value, the ratio of the tracer (metabolite) elimination rate to the tracer efflux rate, is under approximately 0.1. In this study, we propose a non-input analysis for incomplete trapping irreversible tracers based on the shape analysis (Shape), a non-input analysis used for irreversible tracers. A Monte Carlo simulation study based on experimental monkey data with two actual PET tracers (a complete trapping irreversible tracer [(11)C]MP4A and an incomplete trapping irreversible tracer [(18)F]FEP-4MA) was performed to examine the effects of the environmental error and the tracer elimination rate on the estimation of the k3-parameter (corresponds to metabolic rate) using Shape (original) and modified Shape (M-Shape) analysis. The simulation results were also compared with the experimental results obtained with the two PET tracers. When the tracer β-value was over 0.03, the M-Shape method was superior to the Shape method for the estimation of the k3-parameter. The simulation results were also in reasonable agreement with the experimental ones. M-Shape can be used as the non-input analysis of incomplete trapping irreversible tracers for PET study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayes plus Brass: Estimating Total Fertility for Many Small Areas from Sparse Census Data

PubMed Central

Schmertmann, Carl P.; Cavenaghi, Suzana M.; Assunção, Renato M.; Potter, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

Small-area fertility estimates are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. Such estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required, they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas, and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step algorithm for estimating total fertility in such circumstances, and we illustrate by applying the method to 2000 Brazilian Census data for over five thousand municipalities. Our proposed algorithm first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods, and then applies a new variant of Brass’s P/F parity correction procedure that is robust under conditions of rapid fertility decline. PMID:24143946

Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-fourth edition (WISC-IV) short-form validity: a comparison study in pediatric epilepsy.

PubMed

Hrabok, Marianne; Brooks, Brian L; Fay-McClymont, Taryn B; Sherman, Elisabeth M S

2014-01-01

The purpose of this article was to investigate the accuracy of the WISC-IV short forms in estimating Full Scale Intelligence Quotient (FSIQ) and General Ability Index (GAI) in pediatric epilepsy. One hundred and four children with epilepsy completed the WISC-IV as part of a neuropsychological assessment at a tertiary-level children's hospital. The clinical accuracy of eight short forms was assessed in two ways: (a) accuracy within +/- 5 index points of FSIQ and (b) the clinical classification rate according to Wechsler conventions. The sample was further subdivided into low FSIQ (≤ 80) and high FSIQ (> 80). All short forms were significantly correlated with FSIQ. Seven-subtest (Crawford et al. [2010] FSIQ) and 5-subtest (BdSiCdVcLn) short forms yielded the highest clinical accuracy rates (77%-89%). Overall, a 2-subtest (VcMr) short form yielded the lowest clinical classification rates for FSIQ (35%-63%). The short form yielding the most accurate estimate of GAI was VcSiMrBd (73%-84%). Short forms show promise as useful estimates. The 7-subtest (Crawford et al., 2010) and 5-subtest (BdSiVcLnCd) short forms yielded the most accurate estimates of FSIQ. VcSiMrBd yielded the most accurate estimate of GAI. Clinical recommendations are provided for use of short forms in pediatric epilepsy.

Attrition from emergency medicine clinical practice in the United States.

PubMed

Ginde, Adit A; Sullivan, Ashley F; Camargo, Carlos A

2010-08-01

We estimate the annual attrition from emergency medicine clinical practice. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the American Medical Association's 2008 Physician Masterfile, which includes data on all physicians who have ever obtained a medical license in at least 1 US state. We restricted the analysis to physicians who completed emergency medicine residency training or who obtained emergency medicine board certification. We defined attrition as not being active in emergency medicine clinical practice. Attrition was reported as cumulative and annualized rates, with stratification by years since training graduation. Death rates were estimated from life tables for the US population. Of the 30,864 emergency medicine-trained or emergency medicine board-certified physicians, 26,826 (87%) remain active in emergency medicine clinical practice. Overall, type of attrition was 45% to non-emergency medicine clinical practice, 22% retired, 14% administration, and 10% research/teaching. Immediate attrition (<2 years since training graduation) was 6.5%. The cumulative attrition rates from 2 to 15 years postgraduation were stable (5% to 9%) and thereafter were progressively higher, with 18% having left emergency medicine clinical practice at 20 years postgraduation and 25% at 30 years postgraduation. Annualized attrition rates were highest for the first 5 years postgraduation and after 40 years postgraduation; between 5 and 40 years, the rates remained low (<1%). The overall annual attrition rate from emergency medicine clinical practice, including estimated death rate, was approximately 1.7%. Despite the high stress and demands of emergency medicine, overall attrition remains low and compares favorably with that of other medical specialties. These data have positive implications for the emergency physician workforce and are important for accurate estimation of and planning for emergency physician workforce needs. 2009 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Orbital Electron Capture Rates in Extreme Astrophysical Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Matthew; McDonald, William; Leach, Kyle

2017-09-01

In an attempt to better understand EC decay rates in hot environments, we have developed a program to examine and parse all evaluated atomic and nuclear data. Taking into account the effects of ionization on accessible decay states and electron capture probabilities, half lives across the nuclear chart can be investigated without the need for theoretical estimates. Part of the ongoing project will include isolating stable isotopes that become unstable due to ionization and estimating their stability in these new environments. In addition, we hope to account for a thermal population of excited states to better simulate these environments. This should aide in the complete understanding of nuclear processes in these extreme astrophysical environments. This work is supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Nuclear Physics.

Gender, g, Gender Identity Concepts, and Self-Constructs as Predictors of the Self-Estimated IQ

PubMed Central

Storek, Josephine

2013-01-01

In all 102 participants completed 2 intelligence tests, a self-estimated domain-masculine (DMIQ) intelligence rating (which is a composite of self-rated mathematical–logical and spatial intelligence), a measure of self-esteem, and of self-control. The aim was to confirm and extend previous findings about the role of general intelligence and gender identity in self-assessed intelligence. It aimed to examine further correlates of the Hubris–Humility Effect that shows men believe they are more intelligent than women. The DMIQ scores were correlated significantly with gender, psychometrically assessed IQ, and masculinity but not self-esteem or self-control. Stepwise regressions indicated that gender and gender role were the strongest predictors of DMIQ accounting for a third of the variance. PMID:24303578

Gender, g, gender identity concepts, and self-constructs as predictors of the self-estimated IQ.

PubMed

Storek, Josephine; Furnham, Adrian

2013-01-01

In all 102 participants completed 2 intelligence tests, a self-estimated domain-masculine (DMIQ) intelligence rating (which is a composite of self-rated mathematical-logical and spatial intelligence), a measure of self-esteem, and of self-control. The aim was to confirm and extend previous findings about the role of general intelligence and gender identity in self-assessed intelligence. It aimed to examine further correlates of the Hubris-Humility Effect that shows men believe they are more intelligent than women. The DMIQ scores were correlated significantly with gender, psychometrically assessed IQ, and masculinity but not self-esteem or self-control. Stepwise regressions indicated that gender and gender role were the strongest predictors of DMIQ accounting for a third of the variance.

Physical and physiological demands in women pole dance: a single case study.

PubMed

Ruscello, Bruno; Iannelli, Sara; Partipilo, Filippo; Esposito, Mario; Pantanella, Laura; Dring, Mary B; D'Ottavio, Stefano

2017-04-01

to investigate the physical and physiological demands of a pole dancer's performance studied during a simulated competition, lasting 3 min 30 sec. one single woman pole dancer, (age: 22 years; height: 1.56m; body weight: 52kg; BMI: 21.4kg·m-2; estimated HRmax:192.6 bpm) participated in the study. Physical data pertaining to accelerations and rotational values were collected by the means of a tri-axial accelerometer device integrating three gyroscopes. A complete video footage was recorded using four video cameras, using different sampling rates. Blood Pressure, Heart Rates, Breathing Rates, Blood Lactate concentrations were recorded during the performance. Accelerations (positive and negative), along the vertical axis reached 2G and rotational movements around the pole, reached 400°/s. Blood Pressure values ranged from 120/75 before and to 145/58 mmHg at the end of performance, respectively. Heart Rates reached a peak value of 96% of the Maximal Estimated Heart Rate (HRmax) and a mean %HRmax of 92.85 ± 3.15% during the simulated competition. Breathing Rate reached a peak value of 37 bpm and a mean value during competition of 31.87±3.42 bpm. Blood Lactate concentration ranged from 10.2 to 10.7 mmol/L measured at 1 min and 5 min after the completion of the competition, respectively. The results of this case study confirm that the Pole Dance is a performing art requiring heavy physiological and physical demands on the performers. Specific training routines should be designed in order to cope efficiently with this physical activity, taking into account the performance model we provided with this study.

Using the two-source capture-recapture method to estimate the incidence of acute flaccid paralysis in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Kathryn; Kelly, Heath

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence and the completeness of ascertainment of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in Victoria, Australia, in 1998-2000 and to determine its common causes among children aged under 15 years. METHODS:: The two-source capture-recapture method was used to estimate the incidence of cases of AFP and to evaluate case ascertainment in the routine surveillance system. The primary and secondary data sources were notifications from this system and inpatient hospital records, respectively. FINDINGS: The routine surveillance system indicated that there were 14 cases and the hospital record review identified 19 additional cases. According to the two-source capture-recapture method, there would have been 40 cases during this period (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29-51), representing an average annual incidence of 1.4 per 100000 children aged under 15 years (95% CI = 1.1- 1.7). Thus case ascertainment based on routine surveillance was estimated to be 35% complete. Guillain-Barré syndrome was the commonest single cause of AFP. CONCLUSIONS: Routine surveillance for AFP in Victoria was insensitive. A literature review indicated that the capture-recapture estimates obtained in this study were plausible. The present results help to define a target notification rate for surveillance in settings where poliomyelitis is not endemic. PMID:12481205

Robust estimation-free prescribed performance back-stepping control of air-breathing hypersonic vehicles without affine models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bu, Xiangwei; Wu, Xiaoyan; Huang, Jiaqi; Wei, Daozhi

2016-11-01

This paper investigates the design of a novel estimation-free prescribed performance non-affine control strategy for the longitudinal dynamics of an air-breathing hypersonic vehicle (AHV) via back-stepping. The proposed control scheme is capable of guaranteeing tracking errors of velocity, altitude, flight-path angle, pitch angle and pitch rate with prescribed performance. By prescribed performance, we mean that the tracking error is limited to a predefined arbitrarily small residual set, with convergence rate no less than a certain constant, exhibiting maximum overshoot less than a given value. Unlike traditional back-stepping designs, there is no need of an affine model in this paper. Moreover, both the tedious analytic and numerical computations of time derivatives of virtual control laws are completely avoided. In contrast to estimation-based strategies, the presented estimation-free controller possesses much lower computational costs, while successfully eliminating the potential problem of parameter drifting. Owing to its independence on an accurate AHV model, the studied methodology exhibits excellent robustness against system uncertainties. Finally, simulation results from a fully nonlinear model clarify and verify the design.

Increasing the efficiency of digitization workflows for herbarium specimens.

PubMed

Tulig, Melissa; Tarnowsky, Nicole; Bevans, Michael; Anthony Kirchgessner; Thiers, Barbara M

2012-01-01

The New York Botanical Garden Herbarium has been databasing and imaging its estimated 7.3 million plant specimens for the past 17 years. Due to the size of the collection, we have been selectively digitizing fundable subsets of specimens, making successive passes through the herbarium with each new grant. With this strategy, the average rate for databasing complete records has been 10 specimens per hour. With 1.3 million specimens databased, this effort has taken about 130,000 hours of staff time. At this rate, to complete the herbarium and digitize the remaining 6 million specimens, another 600,000 hours would be needed. Given the current biodiversity and economic crises, there is neither the time nor money to complete the collection at this rate.Through a combination of grants over the last few years, The New York Botanical Garden has been testing new protocols and tactics for increasing the rate of digitization through combinations of data collaboration, field book digitization, partial data entry and imaging, and optical character recognition (OCR) of specimen images. With the launch of the National Science Foundation's new Advancing Digitization of Biological Collections program, we hope to move forward with larger, more efficient digitization projects, capturing data from larger portions of the herbarium at a fraction of the cost and time.

Increasing the efficiency of digitization workflows for herbarium specimens

PubMed Central

Tulig, Melissa; Tarnowsky, Nicole; Bevans, Michael; Anthony Kirchgessner; Thiers,  Barbara M.

2012-01-01

Abstract The New York Botanical Garden Herbarium has been databasing and imaging its estimated 7.3 million plant specimens for the past 17 years. Due to the size of the collection, we have been selectively digitizing fundable subsets of specimens, making successive passes through the herbarium with each new grant. With this strategy, the average rate for databasing complete records has been 10 specimens per hour. With 1.3 million specimens databased, this effort has taken about 130,000 hours of staff time. At this rate, to complete the herbarium and digitize the remaining 6 million specimens, another 600,000 hours would be needed. Given the current biodiversity and economic crises, there is neither the time nor money to complete the collection at this rate. Through a combination of grants over the last few years, The New York Botanical Garden has been testing new protocols and tactics for increasing the rate of digitization through combinations of data collaboration, field book digitization, partial data entry and imaging, and optical character recognition (OCR) of specimen images. With the launch of the National Science Foundation’s new Advancing Digitization of Biological Collections program, we hope to move forward with larger, more efficient digitization projects, capturing data from larger portions of the herbarium at a fraction of the cost and time. PMID:22859882

Developmental inhibition of gamma irradiation on the peach fruit moth Carposina sasakii (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Jihoon; Ahn, Jun-Young; Sik Lee, Seung; Lee, Ju-Woon; Lee, Kyeong-Yeoll

2015-01-01

Ionizing irradiation is a useful technique for disinfestation under plant quarantine as well as post-harvest management. Effects of gamma irradiation treatment were tested on different developmental events of Carposina sasakii, which is a serious pest of various orchard crops. Apple fruits infested by C. sasakii were irradiated by gamma rays ranging from 0 to 300 Gy. Inhibition rates were determined on behavioral events related to development, including larval exit from apples, cocoon formation, adult eclosion, and oviposition. Failure rates of all these developmental events increased with increasing doses of irradiation. Rates of larval exit from apples and cocoon formation decreased to 13.2% and 1.7%, respectively, at 300 Gy. However, the adult eclosion rate decreased to 5.4% at 100 Gy and was completely inhibited at doses greater than 150 Gy. LD99 values for the inhibition of cocoon formation and adult emergence was estimated into 313.4 and 191.0 Gy. Furthermore, adults developed from irradiated larvae completely failed to lay eggs. Thus, irradiation of infested apples at doses of 200 Gy and higher completely inhibited the next generation of C. sasakii. Our results suggest that gamma irradiation treatment would be a promising technique for the control of C. sasakii.

LiST modelling with monitoring data to estimate impact on child mortality of an ORS and zinc programme with public sector providers in Bihar, India.

PubMed

Ayyanat, Jayachandran A; Harbour, Catherine; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Manjula

2018-01-05

Many interventions have attempted to increase vulnerable and remote populations' access to ORS and zinc to reduce child mortality from diarrhoea. However, the impact of these interventions is difficult to measure. From 2010 to 15, Micronutrient Initiative (MI), worked with the public sector in Bihar, India to enable community health workers to treat and report uncomplicated child diarrhoea with ORS and zinc. We describe how we estimated programme's impact on child mortality with Lives Saved Tool (LiST) modelling and data from MI's management information system (MIS). This study demonstrates that using LiST modelling and MIS data are viable options for evaluating programmes to reduce child mortality. We used MI's programme monitoring data to estimate coverage rates and LiST modelling software to estimate programme impact on child mortality. Four scenarios estimated the effects of different rates of programme scale-up and programme coverage on estimated child mortality by measuring children's lives saved. The programme saved an estimated 806-975 children under-5 who had diarrhoea during five-year project phase. Increasing ORS and zinc coverage rates to 19.8% & 18.3% respectively under public sector coverage with effective treatment would have increased the programme's impact on child mortality and could have achieved the project goal of saving 4200 children's lives during the five-year programme. Programme monitoring data can be used with LiST modelling software to estimate coverage rates and programme impact on child mortality. This modelling approach may cost less and yield estimates sooner than directly measuring programme impact with population-based surveys. However, users must be cautious about relying on modelled estimates of impact and ensure that the programme monitoring data used is complete and precise about the programme aspects that are modelled. Otherwise, LiST may mis-estimate impact on child mortality. Further, LiST software may require modifications to its built-in assumptions to capture programmatic inputs. LiST assumes that mortality rates and cause of death structure change only in response to changes in programme coverage. In Bihar, overall child mortality has decreased and diarrhoea seems to be less lethal than previously, but at present LiST does not adjust its estimates for these sorts of changes.

Likelihood of Tree Topologies with Fossils and Diversification Rate Estimation.

PubMed

Didier, Gilles; Fau, Marine; Laurin, Michel

2017-11-01

Since the diversification process cannot be directly observed at the human scale, it has to be studied from the information available, namely the extant taxa and the fossil record. In this sense, phylogenetic trees including both extant taxa and fossils are the most complete representations of the diversification process that one can get. Such phylogenetic trees can be reconstructed from molecular and morphological data, to some extent. Among the temporal information of such phylogenetic trees, fossil ages are by far the most precisely known (divergence times are inferences calibrated mostly with fossils). We propose here a method to compute the likelihood of a phylogenetic tree with fossils in which the only considered time information is the fossil ages, and apply it to the estimation of the diversification rates from such data. Since it is required in our computation, we provide a method for determining the probability of a tree topology under the standard diversification model. Testing our approach on simulated data shows that the maximum likelihood rate estimates from the phylogenetic tree topology and the fossil dates are almost as accurate as those obtained by taking into account all the data, including the divergence times. Moreover, they are substantially more accurate than the estimates obtained only from the exact divergence times (without taking into account the fossil record). We also provide an empirical example composed of 50 Permo-Carboniferous eupelycosaur (early synapsid) taxa ranging in age from about 315 Ma (Late Carboniferous) to 270 Ma (shortly after the end of the Early Permian). Our analyses suggest a speciation (cladogenesis, or birth) rate of about 0.1 per lineage and per myr, a marginally lower extinction rate, and a considerable hidden paleobiodiversity of early synapsids. [Extinction rate; fossil ages; maximum likelihood estimation; speciation rate.]. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of 36 Gy, 20 Gy, or No Radiation Therapy After 6 Cycles of EBVP Chemotherapy and Complete Remission in Early-Stage Hodgkin Lymphoma Without Risk Factors: Results of the EORT-GELA H9-F Intergroup Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Thomas, José; Fermé, Christophe; Noordijk, Evert M; Morschhauser, Franck; Girinsky, Théodore; Gaillard, Isabelle; Lugtenburg, Pieternella J; André, Marc; Lybeert, Marnix L M; Stamatoullas, Aspasia; Beijert, Max; Hélias, Philippe; Eghbali, Houchingue; Gabarre, Jean; van der Maazen, Richard W M; Jaubert, Jérôme; Bouabdallah, Krimo; Boulat, Olivier; Roesink, Judith M; Christian, Bernard; Ong, Francisca; Bordessoule, Dominique; Tertian, Gérard; Gonzalez, Hugo; Vranovsky, Andrej; Quittet, Philippe; Tirelli, Umberto; de Jong, Daphne; Audouin, Josée; Aleman, Berthe M P; Henry-Amar, Michel

2018-04-01

While patients with early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) have an excellent outcome with combined treatment, the radiation therapy (RT) dose and treatment with chemotherapy alone remain questionable. This noninferiority trial evaluates the feasibility of reducing the dose or omitting RT after chemotherapy. Patients with untreated supradiaphragmatic HL without risk factors (age ≥ 50 years, 4 to 5 nodal areas involved, mediastinum-thoracic ratio ≥ 0.35, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate ≥ 50 mm in first hour without B symptoms or erythrocyte sedimentation rate ≥ 30 mm in first hour with B symptoms) were eligible for the trial. Patients in complete remission after chemotherapy were randomized to no RT, low-dose RT (20 Gy in 10 fractions), or standard-dose involved-field RT (36 Gy in 18 fractions). The limit of noninferiority was 10% for the difference between 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) estimates. From September 1998 to May 2004, 783 patients received 6 cycles of epirubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and prednisone; 592 achieved complete remission or unconfirmed complete remission, of whom 578 were randomized to receive 36 Gy (n=239), 20 Gy of involved-field RT (n=209), or no RT (n=130). Randomization to the no-RT arm was prematurely stopped (≥20% rate of inacceptable events: toxicity, treatment modification, early relapse, or death). Results in the 20-Gy arm (5-year RFS, 84.2%) were not inferior to those in the 36-Gy arm (5-year RFS, 88.6%) (difference, 4.4%; 90% confidence interval [CI] -1.2% to 9.9%). A difference of 16.5% (90% CI 8.0%-25.0%) in 5-year RFS estimates was observed between the no-RT arm (69.8%) and the 36-Gy arm (86.3%); the hazard ratio was 2.55 (95% CI 1.44-4.53; P<.001). The 5-year overall survival estimates ranged from 97% to 99%. In adult patients with early-stage HL without risk factors in complete remission after epirubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and prednisone chemotherapy, the RT dose may be limited to 20 Gy without compromising disease control. Omitting RT in these patients may jeopardize the treatment outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of completeness magnitude with a Bayesian modeling of daily and weekly variations in earthquake detectability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.

2014-12-01

In the analysis of seismic activity, assessment of earthquake detectability of a seismic network is a fundamental issue. For this assessment, the completeness magnitude Mc, the minimum magnitude above which all earthquakes are recorded, is frequently estimated. In most cases, Mc is estimated for an earthquake catalog of duration longer than several weeks. However, owing to human activity, noise level in seismic data is higher on weekdays than on weekends, so that earthquake detectability has a weekly variation [e.g., Atef et al., 2009, BSSA]; the consideration of such a variation makes a significant contribution to the precise assessment of earthquake detectability and Mc. For a quantitative evaluation of the weekly variation, we introduced the statistical model of a magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes covering an entire magnitude range [Ogata & Katsura, 1993, GJI]. The frequency distribution is represented as the product of the Gutenberg-Richter law and a detection rate function. Then, the weekly variation in one of the model parameters, which corresponds to the magnitude where the detection rate of earthquakes is 50%, was estimated. Because earthquake detectability also have a daily variation [e.g., Iwata, 2013, GJI], and the weekly and daily variations were estimated simultaneously by adopting a modification of a Bayesian smoothing spline method for temporal change in earthquake detectability developed in Iwata [2014, Aust. N. Z. J. Stat.]. Based on the estimated variations in the parameter, the value of Mc was estimated. In this study, the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog from 2006 to 2010 was analyzed; this dataset is the same as analyzed in Iwata [2013] where only the daily variation in earthquake detectability was considered in the estimation of Mc. A rectangular grid with 0.1° intervals covering in and around Japan was deployed, and the value of Mc was estimated for each gridpoint. Consequently, a clear weekly variation was revealed; the detectability is better on Sundays than on the other days. The estimated spatial variation in Mc was compared with that estimated in Iwata [2013]; the maximum difference between Mc values with and without considering the weekly variation approximately equals to 0.2, suggesting the importance of accounting for the weekly variation in the estimation of Mc.

75 FR 6167 - Notice of a Request for Extension of a Currently Approved Information Collection

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-08

... raw cane sugar under the tariff- rate quota (TRQ) into the United States. DATES: Comments on this... imports of raw cane sugar. Proper completion of the CQE is mandatory for those foreign governments that are eligible and elect to export raw cane sugar to the United States under the TRQ. Estimate of burden...

Higher Education: Institutions' Reported Data Collection Burden Is Higher than Estimated but Can Be Reduced through Increased Coordination. Report to Congressional Committees. GAO-10-871

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, George A.

2010-01-01

The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) is the federal government's core postsecondary data collection program. Approximately 6,800 postsecondary schools are required to complete annual IPEDS surveys on topics including enrollment, graduation rates, and finances. As policymakers have sought additional data to increase…

Breast Cancer Diagnosis Using Ultrasound and Diffusive Light

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-08-01

been widely used in clinical studies. The fundamental problem remains the intense light scattering in tissue, which makes the lesion localization...Our 3 unique approach may have significant clinical applications on 1) breast cancer diagnosis; and 2) assessing treatment response and estimating...the response of cancers to presurgical chemotherapy are not completely understood [20]. Although recent trials reported clinical response rates >70

Robot-assisted partial nephrectomy (RAPN) for completely endophytic renal masses: a single institution experience.

PubMed

Autorino, Riccardo; Khalifeh, Ali; Laydner, Humberto; Samarasekera, Dinesh; Rizkala, Emad; Eyraud, Remi; Stein, Robert J; Haber, Georges-Pascal; Kaouk, Jihad H

2014-05-01

To analyse the outcomes of robot-assisted partial nephrectomy (RAPN) for completely endophytic renal tumours. Medical records of patients who had undergone RAPN for a completely endophytic (i.e. 3 points for the 'E' domain of the R.E.N.A.L. nephrometry score) enhancing renal mass at our Centre from 2006 to 2012 were retrieved from our prospectively maintained RAPN database and used for this analysis. Demographics, surgical and early postoperative outcomes were compared with those of patients with exophytic masses (i.e. 1 point for the 'E' domain) and those of patients with mesophytic masses (i.e. 2 points for the 'E' domain). In all, 65 patients (mean age 56 years; mean body mass index 29.4 kg/m(2) ; mean Charlson comorbidity index 3.2) were included in the study group, accounting for 16.7% of RAPN cases over the study period. The main surgical outcomes were: mean operative time 175 min, mean estimated blood loss 225 mL, and mean warm ischaemia time 21.7 min. Pathology showed a malignant histology in 48 cases (74%), mostly clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Two positive margins (3%) were found. Patients with a completely endophytic mass had smaller tumours on preoperative imaging (mean 2.6 vs 3.3 for mesophytic vs 3.7 cm for exophytic; P < 0.001), and higher overall R.E.N.A.L. score (mean 8.7 vs 7.6 vs 6.4; P < 0.001). There was a lower rate of unclamped cases in the endophytic group (3.1% vs 4.8% vs 18%; P < 0.001). There were no differences in intraoperative complications, length of hospital stay, positive margin rate, postoperative change in estimated glomerular filtration rate, given a similar length of follow-up (mean 12.6 vs 15.7 vs 14.5 months; P = 0.3). RAPN for completely intraparenchymal renal tumours can be safely and effectively performed in centres with significant robotic expertise, with surgical outcomes resembling those obtained in the general RAPN population. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

Freshwater biodissolution rates of limestone in the temperate climate of the Dinaric karst in Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulec, J.; Prelovšek, M.

2015-01-01

Dissolution rates in two freshwater karst systems were determined by using tablets of dense micrite-biopelmicrite Cretaceous limestone. Submerged limestone tablets in riverbeds were subjected to a natural gradient from complete darkness to direct sunlight. Higher light rates significantly (p < 0.05) increased the epilithic biomass of phototrophs and the overall dissolution rates, which were highest at the Unica spring (- 49.2 μm a- 1), but the exact portion of light-dependent dissolution remains elusive. In the karst river Unica, with its big fluctuations in environmental parameters (e.g., discharge), light rates can be used in estimating the dissolution rates enhanced by phototrophs. Natural biofilms in aquatic systems have important implications for landform evolution, and the impact on limestone dissolution rates is comparable with rates of debris falling from steep slopes.

Phenology, growth and physiological adjustments of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) to sink limitation induced by fruit pruning

PubMed Central

Legros, S.; Mialet-Serra, I.; Caliman, J.-P.; Siregar, F. A.; Clement-Vidal, A.; Fabre, D.; Dingkuhn, M.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Despite its simple architecture and small phenotypic plasticity, oil palm has complex phenology and source–sink interactions. Phytomers appear in regular succession but their development takes years, involving long lag periods between environmental influences and their effects on sinks. Plant adjustments to resulting source–sink imbalances are poorly understood. This study investigated oil palm adjustments to imbalances caused by severe fruit pruning. Methods An experiment with two treatments (control and complete fruit pruning) during 22 months in 2006–2008) and six replications per treatment was conducted in Indonesia. Phenology, growth of above-ground vegetative and reproductive organs, leaf morphology, inflorescence sex differentiation, dynamics of non-structural carbohydrate reserves and light-saturated net photosynthesis (Amax) were monitored. Key Results Artificial sink limitation by complete fruit pruning accelerated development rate, resulting in higher phytomer, leaf and inflorescence numbers. Leaf size and morphology remained unchanged. Complete fruit pruning also suppressed the abortion of male inflorescences, estimated to be triggered at about 16 months before bunch maturity. The number of female inflorescences increased after an estimated lag of 24–26 months, corresponding to time from sex differentiation to bunch maturity. The most important adjustment process was increased assimilate storage in the stem, attaining nearly 50 % of dry weight in the stem top, mainly as starch, whereas glucose, which in controls was the most abundant non-structural carbohydrate stored in oil palm, decreased. Conclusions The development rate of oil palm is in part controlled by source–sink relationships. Although increased rate of development and proportion of female inflorescences constituted observed adjustments to sink limitation, the low plasticity of plant architecture (constant leaf size, absence of branching) limited compensatory growth. Non-structural carbohydrate storage was thus the main adjustment process. PMID:19748908

Reconstruction of an input function from a dynamic PET water image using multiple tissue curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudomi, Nobuyuki; Maeda, Yukito; Yamamoto, Yuka; Nishiyama, Yoshihiro

2016-08-01

Quantification of cerebral blood flow (CBF) is important for the understanding of normal and pathologic brain physiology. When CBF is assessed using PET with {{\\text{H}}2} 15O or C15O2, its calculation requires an arterial input function, which generally requires invasive arterial blood sampling. The aim of the present study was to develop a new technique to reconstruct an image derived input function (IDIF) from a dynamic {{\\text{H}}2} 15O PET image as a completely non-invasive approach. Our technique consisted of using a formula to express the input using tissue curve with rate constant parameter. For multiple tissue curves extracted from the dynamic image, the rate constants were estimated so as to minimize the sum of the differences of the reproduced inputs expressed by the extracted tissue curves. The estimated rates were used to express the inputs and the mean of the estimated inputs was used as an IDIF. The method was tested in human subjects (n  =  29) and was compared to the blood sampling method. Simulation studies were performed to examine the magnitude of potential biases in CBF and to optimize the number of multiple tissue curves used for the input reconstruction. In the PET study, the estimated IDIFs were well reproduced against the measured ones. The difference between the calculated CBF values obtained using the two methods was small as around  <8% and the calculated CBF values showed a tight correlation (r  =  0.97). The simulation showed that errors associated with the assumed parameters were  <10%, and that the optimal number of tissue curves to be used was around 500. Our results demonstrate that IDIF can be reconstructed directly from tissue curves obtained through {{\\text{H}}2} 15O PET imaging. This suggests the possibility of using a completely non-invasive technique to assess CBF in patho-physiological studies.

Survival rates of Anopheles culicifacies s.l. and Anopheles pulcherrimus in sprayed and unsprayed villages in Ghassreghand district, Baluchistan, Iran, 1991.

PubMed

Zaim, M; Zahirnia, A H; Manouchehri, A V

1993-12-01

Survival rates, expectation of life, and expectation of infective life of Anopheles culicifacies and Anopheles pulcherrimus were estimated in sprayed and unsprayed villages in the highly malarious Ghassreghand District, Iran, during the 2 peak malaria transmission seasons in 1991. The daily survival rate of An. culicifacies was estimated as 0.84 and 0.78 during May and 0.89 and nil during September-October in the unsprayed and sprayed villages, respectively. For An. pulcherrimus the daily survival rate was estimated as 0.80 and 0.78 in May and 0.83 and 0.78 in September-October in the unsprayed and sprayed villages, respectively. The impact of indoor residual spraying during the first peak of transmission on An. culicifacies and An. pulcherrimus (expressed as the product of the degree of reduction of the expectation of infective life and the degree of reduction of expectation of life) was calculated as 3.5 and 1.5 times, respectively, that in the absence of control. The impact of indoor residual spraying on An. culicifacies during the second peak of transmission was almost complete, whereas that for An. pulcherrimus was 3.4 times than that in the absence of control.

Patients' costs and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment in DOTS and non-DOTS facilities in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

PubMed

Steffen, Ricardo; Menzies, Dick; Oxlade, Olivia; Pinto, Marcia; de Castro, Analia Zuleika; Monteiro, Paula; Trajman, Anete

2010-11-17

Costs of tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment may represent a significant burden for the poor and for the health system in resource-poor countries. The aim of this study was to analyze patients' costs of tuberculosis care and to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the directly observed treatment (DOT) strategy per completed treatment in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We interviewed 218 adult patients with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. Information on direct (out-of-pocket expenses) and indirect (hours lost) costs, loss in income and costs with extra help were gathered through a questionnaire. Healthcare system additional costs due to supervision of pill-intake were calculated considering staff salaries. Effectiveness was measured by treatment completion rate. The ICER of DOT compared to self-administered therapy (SAT) was calculated. DOT increased costs during the treatment phase, while SAT increased costs in the pre-diagnostic phase, for both the patient and the health system. Treatment completion rates were 71% in SAT facilities and 79% in DOT facilities. Costs per completed treatment were US$ 194 for patients and U$ 189 for the health system in SAT facilities, compared to US$ 336 and US$ 726 in DOT facilities. The ICER was US$ 6,616 per completed DOT treatment compared to SAT. Costs incurred by TB patients are high in Rio de Janeiro, especially for those under DOT. The DOT strategy doubles patients' costs and increases by fourfold the health system costs per completed treatment. The additional costs for DOT may be one of the contributing factors to the completion rates below the targeted 85% recommended by WHO.

Comparison of the EPIC Physical Activity Questionnaire with combined heart rate and movement sensing in a nationally representative sample of older British adults.

PubMed

España-Romero, Vanesa; Golubic, Rajna; Martin, Kathryn R; Hardy, Rebecca; Ekelund, Ulf; Kuh, Diana; Wareham, Nicholas J; Cooper, Rachel; Brage, Soren

2014-01-01

To compare physical activity (PA) subcomponents from EPIC Physical Activity Questionnaire (EPAQ2) and combined heart rate and movement sensing in older adults. Participants aged 60-64y from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development in Great Britain completed EPAQ2, which assesses self-report PA in 4 domains (leisure time, occupation, transportation and domestic life) during the past year and wore a combined sensor for 5 consecutive days. Estimates of PA energy expenditure (PAEE), sedentary behaviour, light (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) were obtained from EPAQ2 and combined sensing and compared. Complete data were available in 1689 participants (52% women). EPAQ2 estimates of PAEE and MVPA were higher than objective estimates and sedentary time and LPA estimates were lower [bias (95% limits of agreement) in men and women were 32.3 (-61.5 to 122.6) and 29.0 (-39.2 to 94.6) kJ/kg/day for PAEE; -4.6 (-10.6 to 1.3) and -6.0 (-10.9 to -1.0) h/day for sedentary time; -171.8 (-454.5 to 110.8) and -60.4 (-367.5 to 246.6) min/day for LPA; 91.1 (-159.5 to 341.8) and 55.4 (-117.2 to 228.0) min/day for MVPA]. There were significant positive correlations between all self-reported and objectively assessed PA subcomponents (rho= 0.12 to 0.36); the strongest were observed for MVPA (rho = 0.30 men; rho = 0.36 women) and PAEE (rho = 0.26 men; rho = 0.25 women). EPAQ2 produces higher estimates of PAEE and MVPA and lower estimates of sedentary and LPA than objective assessment. However, both methodologies rank individuals similarly, suggesting that EPAQ2 may be used in etiological studies in this population.

Impact of different privacy conditions and incentives on survey response rate, participant representativeness, and disclosure of sensitive information: a randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Anonymous survey methods appear to promote greater disclosure of sensitive or stigmatizing information compared to non-anonymous methods. Higher disclosure rates have traditionally been interpreted as being more accurate than lower rates. We examined the impact of 3 increasingly private mailed survey conditions—ranging from potentially identifiable to completely anonymous—on survey response and on respondents’ representativeness of the underlying sampling frame, completeness in answering sensitive survey items, and disclosure of sensitive information. We also examined the impact of 2 incentives ($10 versus $20) on these outcomes. Methods A 3X2 factorial, randomized controlled trial of 324 representatively selected, male Gulf War I era veterans who had applied for United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) disability benefits. Men were asked about past sexual assault experiences, childhood abuse, combat, other traumas, mental health symptoms, and sexual orientation. We used a novel technique, the pre-merged questionnaire, to link anonymous responses to administrative data. Results Response rates ranged from 56.0% to 63.3% across privacy conditions (p = 0.49) and from 52.8% to 68.1% across incentives (p = 0.007). Respondents’ characteristics differed by privacy and by incentive assignments, with completely anonymous respondents and $20 respondents appearing least different from their non-respondent counterparts. Survey completeness did not differ by privacy or by incentive. No clear pattern of disclosing sensitive information by privacy condition or by incentive emerged. For example, although all respondents came from the same sampling frame, estimates of sexual abuse ranged from 13.6% to 33.3% across privacy conditions, with the highest estimate coming from the intermediate privacy condition (p = 0.007). Conclusion Greater privacy and larger incentives do not necessarily result in higher disclosure rates of sensitive information than lesser privacy and lower incentives. Furthermore, disclosure of sensitive or stigmatizing information under differing privacy conditions may have less to do with promoting or impeding participants’ “honesty” or “accuracy” than with selectively recruiting or attracting subpopulations that are higher or lower in such experiences. Pre-merged questionnaires bypassed many historical limitations of anonymous surveys and hold promise for exploring non-response issues in future research. PMID:25027174

Constraints on Water Reservoir Lifetimes From Catchment-Wide 10Be Erosion Rates—A Case Study From Western Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heineke, Caroline; Hetzel, Ralf; Akal, Cüneyt; Christl, Marcus

2017-11-01

The functionality and retention capacity of water reservoirs is generally impaired by upstream erosion and reservoir sedimentation, making a reliable assessment of erosion indispensable to estimate reservoir lifetimes. Widely used river gauging methods may underestimate sediment yield, because they do not record rare, high-magnitude events and may underestimate bed load transport. Hence, reservoir lifetimes calculated from short-term erosion rates should be regarded as maximum values. We propose that erosion rates from cosmogenic 10Be, which commonly integrate over hundreds to thousands of years, are useful to complement short-term sediment yield estimates and should be employed to estimate minimum reservoir lifetimes. Here we present 10Be erosion rates for the drainage basins of six water reservoirs in Western Turkey, which are located in a tectonically active region with easily erodible bedrock. Our 10Be erosion rates for these catchments are high, ranging from ˜170 to ˜1,040 t/km2/yr. When linked to reservoir volumes, they yield minimum reservoir lifetimes between 25 ± 5 and 1,650 ± 360 years until complete filling, with four reservoirs having minimum lifespans of ≤110 years. In a neighboring region with more resistant bedrock and less tectonic activity, we obtain much lower catchment-wide 10Be erosion rates of ˜33 to ˜95 t/km2/yr, illustrating that differences in lithology and tectonic boundary conditions can cause substantial variations in erosion even at a spatial scale of only ˜50 km. In conclusion, we suggest that both short-term sediment yield estimates and 10Be erosion rates should be employed to predict the lifetimes of reservoirs.

Gender and gender role differences in self- and other-estimates of multiple intelligences.

PubMed

Szymanowicz, Agata; Furnham, Adrian

2013-01-01

This study examined participant gender and gender role differences in estimates of multiple intelligences for self, partner, and various hypothetical, stereotypical, and counter-stereotypical target persons. A general population sample of 261 British participants completed one of four questionnaires that required them to estimate their own and others' multiple intelligences and personality traits. Males estimated their general IQ slightly, but mathematic IQ significantly higher than females, who rated their social and emotional intelligence higher than males. Masculine individuals awarded themselves somewhat higher verbal and practical IQ scores than did female participants. Both participant gender and gender role differences in IQ estimates were found, with gender effects stronger in cognitive and gender role than in "personal" ability estimates. There was a significant effect of gender role on hypothetical persons' intelligence evaluations, with masculine targets receiving significantly higher intelligence estimates compared to feminine targets. More intelligent hypothetical figures were judged as more masculine and less feminine than less intelligent ones.

Gender and Gender Role Differences in Self- and Other-Estimates of Multiple Intelligences

PubMed Central

Szymanowicz, Agata

2013-01-01

This study examined participant gender and gender role differences in estimates of multiple intelligences for self, partner, and various hypothetical, stereotypical, and counter-stereotypical target persons. A general population sample of 261 British participants completed one of four questionnaires that required them to estimate their own and others’ multiple intelligences and personality traits. Males estimated their general IQ slightly, but mathematic IQ significantly higher than females, who rated their social and emotional intelligence higher than males. Masculine individuals awarded themselves somewhat higher verbal and practical IQ scores than did female participants. Both participant gender and gender role differences in IQ estimates were found, with gender effects stronger in cognitive and gender role than in “personal” ability estimates. There was a significant effect of gender role on hypothetical persons’ intelligence evaluations, with masculine targets receiving significantly higher intelligence estimates compared to feminine targets. More intelligent hypothetical figures were judged as more masculine and less feminine than less intelligent ones. PMID:23951949

Linear models: permutation methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Everitt, B.S.; Howell, D.C.

2005-01-01

Permutation tests (see Permutation Based Inference) for the linear model have applications in behavioral studies when traditional parametric assumptions about the error term in a linear model are not tenable. Improved validity of Type I error rates can be achieved with properly constructed permutation tests. Perhaps more importantly, increased statistical power, improved robustness to effects of outliers, and detection of alternative distributional differences can be achieved by coupling permutation inference with alternative linear model estimators. For example, it is well-known that estimates of the mean in linear model are extremely sensitive to even a single outlying value of the dependent variable compared to estimates of the median [7, 19]. Traditionally, linear modeling focused on estimating changes in the center of distributions (means or medians). However, quantile regression allows distributional changes to be estimated in all or any selected part of a distribution or responses, providing a more complete statistical picture that has relevance to many biological questions [6]...

Leadership development in a professional medical society using 360-degree survey feedback to assess emotional intelligence.

PubMed

Gregory, Paul J; Robbins, Benjamin; Schwaitzberg, Steven D; Harmon, Larry

2017-09-01

The current research evaluated the potential utility of a 360-degree survey feedback program for measuring leadership quality in potential committee leaders of a professional medical association (PMA). Emotional intelligence as measured by the extent to which self-other agreement existed in the 360-degree survey ratings was explored as a key predictor of leadership quality in the potential leaders. A non-experimental correlational survey design was implemented to assess the variation in leadership quality scores across the sample of potential leaders. A total of 63 of 86 (76%) of those invited to participate did so. All potential leaders received feedback from PMA Leadership, PMA Colleagues, and PMA Staff and were asked to complete self-ratings regarding their behavior. Analyses of variance revealed a consistent pattern of results as Under-Estimators and Accurate Estimators-Favorable were rated significantly higher than Over-Estimators in several leadership behaviors. Emotional intelligence as conceptualized in this study was positively related to overall performance ratings of potential leaders. The ever-increasing roles and potential responsibilities for PMAs suggest that these organizations should consider multisource performance reviews as these potential future PMA executives rise through their organizations to assume leadership positions with profound potential impact on healthcare. The current findings support the notion that potential leaders who demonstrated a humble pattern or an accurate pattern of self-rating scored significantly higher in their leadership, teamwork, and interpersonal/communication skills than those with an aggrandizing self-rating.

Development of partial rock veneers by root throw in a subalpine setting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osterkamp, W.R.; Toy, T.J.; Lenart, M.T.

2006-01-01

Rock veneers stabilize hillslope surfaces, occur especially in areas of immature soil, and form through a variety of process sets that includes root throw. Near Westcliffe, Colorado, USA, data were collected from a 20 ?? 500 m transect on the east slope of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Ages of pit/mound complexes with rock fragments exposed at the surface by root throw ranged from recent (freshly toppled tree) to unknown (complete tree decay). Calculations based on dimensions of the pit/mound complexes, estimated time of free topppling, sizes of exposed rock fragments, and percentage rock covers at pit/mound complexes, as well as within the transect area, indicate that recent rates of root throw have resulted in only partial rock veneering since late Pleistocene deglaciation. Weathering of rock fragments prevent development of an extensive rock veneer and causes a balance, achieved within an estimated 700 years, between the rates of rock-fragment exposure by root throw and clast disintegration by chemical reduction. The estimated rate of rock-fragment reduction accounts for part of the fluvial sediment yields observed for forested subalpine areas of western North America. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Applying probabilistic well-performance parameters to assessments of shale-gas resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy

2010-01-01

In assessing continuous oil and gas resources, such as shale gas, it is important to describe not only the ultimately producible volumes, but also the expected well performance. This description is critical to any cost analysis or production scheduling. A probabilistic approach facilitates (1) the inclusion of variability in well performance within a continuous accumulation, and (2) the use of data from developed accumulations as analogs for the assessment of undeveloped accumulations. In assessing continuous oil and gas resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey analyzed production data from many shale-gas accumulations. Analyses of four of these accumulations (the Barnett, Woodford, Fayetteville, and Haynesville shales) are presented here as examples of the variability of well performance. For example, the distribution of initial monthly production rates for Barnett vertical wells shows a noticeable change with time, first increasing because of improved completion practices, then decreasing from a combination of decreased reservoir pressure (in infill wells) and drilling in less productive areas. Within a partially developed accumulation, historical production data from that accumulation can be used to estimate production characteristics of undrilled areas. An understanding of the probabilistic relations between variables, such as between initial production and decline rates, can improve estimates of ultimate production. Time trends or spatial trends in production data can be clarified by plots and maps. The data can also be divided into subsets depending on well-drilling or well-completion techniques, such as vertical in relation to horizontal wells. For hypothetical or lightly developed accumulations, one can either make comparisons to a specific well-developed accumulation or to the entire range of available developed accumulations. Comparison of the distributions of initial monthly production rates of the four shale-gas accumulations that were studied shows substantial overlap. However, because of differences in decline rates among them, the resulting estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) distributions are considerably different.

Impact of drug shortages on U.S. health systems.

PubMed

Kaakeh, Rola; Sweet, Burgunda V; Reilly, Cynthia; Bush, Colleen; DeLoach, Sherry; Higgins, Barb; Clark, Angela M; Stevenson, James

2011-10-01

A study was performed to quantify the personnel resources required to manage drug shortages, define the impact of drug shortages on health systems nationwide, and assess the adequacy of information resources available to manage drug shortages. An online survey was sent to the 1322 members of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists who were identified as directors of pharmacy. Survey recipients were asked to identify which of the 30 most recent drug shortages listed affected their health system, to identify actions taken to manage the shortage, and to rate the impact of each shortage. Employees responsible for completing predefined tasks were identified, and the average time spent by each type of employee completing these tasks was estimated. Labor costs associated with managing shortages were calculated. A total of 353 respondents completed the survey, yielding a response rate of 27%. Pharmacists and pharmacy technicians spent more time managing drug shortages than did physicians and nurses. There was a significant association between the time spent managing shortages and the size of the institution, the number of shortages managed, and the institution's level of automation. Overall, 70% of the respondents felt that the information resources available to manage drug shortages were not good. The labor costs associated with managing shortages in the United States is an estimated $216 million annually. A survey of directors of pharmacy revealed that labor costs and the time required to manage drug shortages are significant and that current information available to manage drug shortages is considered suboptimal.

How do cumulative live birth rates and cumulative multiple live birth rates over complete courses of assisted reproductive technology treatment per woman compare among registries?

PubMed

De Neubourg, D; Bogaerts, K; Blockeel, C; Coetsier, T; Delvigne, A; Devreker, F; Dubois, M; Gillain, N; Gordts, S; Wyns, C

2016-01-01

How do the national cumulative (multiple) live birth rates over complete assisted reproduction technology (ART) courses of treatment per woman in Belgium compare to those in other registries? Cumulative live birth rates (CLBRs) remain high with a low cumulative multiple live birth rate when compared with other registries and publications. In ART, a reduction in the multiple live birth rate could be achieved by reducing the number of embryos transferred. It has been shown that by doing so, live birth rates per cycle were maintained, particularly when the augmentation effect of attached frozen-thawed cycles was considered. A retrospective cohort study included all patients with a Belgian national insurance number who were registered in the national ART registry (Belrap) and who started a first fresh ART cycle between 1 July 2009 until 31 December 2011 with follow up until 31 December 2012. We analysed 12 869 patients and 38 008 cycles (both fresh and attached frozen cycles). CLBRs per patient who started a first ART cycle including fresh and consecutive frozen cycles leading to a live birth. Conservative estimates of cumulative live birth assumed that patients who did not return for treatment had no chance of achieving an ART-related live birth, whereas optimal estimates assumed that women discontinuing treatment would have the same chance of achieving a live birth as those continuing treatment. A maximum of six fresh ART cycles with corresponding frozen cycles was investigated and compared with other registries and publications. The CLBR was age dependent and declined from 62.9% for women <35 years, to 51.4% for women 35-37 years, to 34.1% for women 38-40 years and 17.7% for women 41-42 years in the conservative analysis after six cycles. In the optimal estimate, the CLBR declined from 85.9% for women <35 years, to 72.0% for women 35-37 years, to 50.4% for women 38-40 years and 36.4% for women 41-42 years. The cumulative multiple live birth rates for the whole population were 5.1 and 8.6% for the conservative and optimal estimate, respectively. Conservative and optimal estimates use assumptions for the whole ART population and do not take the individual patient into account. These data reinforce the validity of the Belgian model of coupling reimbursement of ART costs to a restriction in the number of embryos transferred. Our data can improve decision-making in medical ART practice both on the patient level and for society at large and could provide health care takers and insurance companies with a valid model. none. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Monitoring landscape metrics by point sampling: accuracy in estimating Shannon's diversity and edge density.

PubMed

Ramezani, Habib; Holm, Sören; Allard, Anna; Ståhl, Göran

2010-05-01

Environmental monitoring of landscapes is of increasing interest. To quantify landscape patterns, a number of metrics are used, of which Shannon's diversity, edge length, and density are studied here. As an alternative to complete mapping, point sampling was applied to estimate the metrics for already mapped landscapes selected from the National Inventory of Landscapes in Sweden (NILS). Monte-Carlo simulation was applied to study the performance of different designs. Random and systematic samplings were applied for four sample sizes and five buffer widths. The latter feature was relevant for edge length, since length was estimated through the number of points falling in buffer areas around edges. In addition, two landscape complexities were tested by applying two classification schemes with seven or 20 land cover classes to the NILS data. As expected, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimators decreased with increasing sample size. The estimators of both metrics were slightly biased, but the bias of Shannon's diversity estimator was shown to decrease when sample size increased. In the edge length case, an increasing buffer width resulted in larger bias due to the increased impact of boundary conditions; this effect was shown to be independent of sample size. However, we also developed adjusted estimators that eliminate the bias of the edge length estimator. The rates of decrease of RMSE with increasing sample size and buffer width were quantified by a regression model. Finally, indicative cost-accuracy relationships were derived showing that point sampling could be a competitive alternative to complete wall-to-wall mapping.

Comparison of Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation and trabeculectomy for glaucoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

HaiBo, Tan; Xin, Kang; ShiHeng, Lu; Lin, Liu

2015-01-01

To compare the efficacy and safety of Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation (AGV) with trabeculectomy in the management of glaucoma patients. A comprehensive literature search (PubMed, Embase, Google, and the Cochrane library) was performed, including a systematic review with meta-analysis of controlled clinical trials comparing AGV versus trabeculectomy. Efficacy estimates were the weighted mean differences (WMDs) for the percentage intraocular pressure reduction (IOPR %) from baseline to end-point, the reduction in glaucoma medications, and the odds ratios (ORs) for complete and qualified success rates. Safety estimates were the relative risks (RRs) for adverse events. All outcomes were reported with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Statistical analysis was performed using the RevMan 5.0 software. Six controlled clinical trials were included in this meta-analysis. There was no significant difference between the AGV and trabeculectomy in the IOPR% (WMD = -3.04, 95% CI: -8.36- 2.26; P = 0.26). The pooled ORs comparing AGV with trabeculectomy were 0.46 (0.22, 0.99) for the complete success rate (P = 0.05) and 0.97 (0.78-1.20) for the quantified success rate (P = 0.76). No significant difference in the reduction in glaucoma medicines was observed (WMD = 0.24; 95% CI: -0.27-0.76; P = 0.35). AGV was found to be associated with a significantly lower frequency of all adverse events (RR = 0.71; 95%CI: 1.14-0.97; p = 0.001) than trabeculectomy, while the most common complications did not differ significantly (all p> 0.05). AGV was equivalent to trabeculectomy in reducing the IOP, the number of glaucoma medications, success rates, and rates of the most common complications. However, AGV was associated with a significantly lower frequency of overall adverse events.

Home-Based Screening for Biliary Atresia Using Infant Stool Color Cards in Canada: Quebec Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Morinville, Véronique; Ahmed, Najma; Ibberson, Cindy; Kovacs, Lajos; Kaczorowski, Janusz; Bryan, Stirling; Collet, Jean-Paul; Schreiber, Richard

2016-04-01

Biliary atresia (BA) is a leading cause of liver failure and liver transplantation in pediatrics. BA manifests by 3 weeks of life with jaundice and pale stools. Delayed diagnosis and surgical intervention with Kasai portoenterostomy after 3 months of age is significantly associated with poor prognosis for native liver survival. A national Taiwan infant stool color card (SCC) screening program has entirely eliminated late Kasai portoenterostomy >90 days of age and improved native liver survival. A recent large-scale prospective cohort study in British Columbia, Canada, indicated that distribution of SCC on the maternity ward was feasible, led to high utilization rate, and was cost-effective. The aim of the present study was to assess the generalizability of this screening strategy in another Canadian jurisdiction with a different sociodemographic profile. An SCC was distributed to families of newborns discharged at St Mary's Hospital Center, Montreal, Quebec. Families were instructed to monitor their infant's stool color for 21 days and then complete and mail the SCC to the study center. Phone surveys to families who did not return cards were used to estimate total card utilization rate. Two thousand two hundred forty-six infants were eligible for inclusion; 99.9% were enrolled. Mail SCC return rate was 63.3%. No cases of BA were identified. All of the 118 families who completed the phone survey reported that they had utilized the SCC. Conservative and optimistic estimates for total card utilization rates were 82% and 100%, respectively. The high enrollment and utilization rates in this screening study strongly support the feasibility of implementing a Canadian SCC screening program to improve outcomes of children with BA.

THE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ASSESSMENT FOR THE CO-FIRING OF BIO-REFINERY SUPPLIED LIGNIN PROJECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ted Berglund; Jeffrey T. Ranney; Carol L. Babb

2001-07-01

The major aspects of this project are proceeding toward completion. Prior to this quarter, design criteria, tentative site selection, facility layout, and preliminary facility cost estimates were completed and issued. Processing of bio-solids was completed, providing material for the pilot operations. Pilot facility design, equipment selection, and modification were completed during the fourth quarter of 2000. Initial pilot facility shakedown was completed during the fourth quarter. After some unavoidable delays, a suitable representative supply of MSW feed material was procured. During this first quarter of 2001, shredding of the feed material and final feed conditioning were completed. Pilot facility hydrolysismore » production was completed to produce lignin for co-fire testing. During this quarter, TVA completed the washing and dewatering of the lignin material produced from the MSW hydrolysis. Seven drums of lignin material were washed to recover the acid and sugar from the lignin and provide an improved fuel for steam generation. Samples of both the lignin and bio-solids fuel materials for co-fire testing were sent to the co-fire facility (EERC) for evaluation. After sample evaluation, EERC approved sending the material and all of the necessary fuel for testing was shipped to EERC. EERC has requested and will receive coal typical of the fuel to the TVA-Colbert boilers. This material will be used at EERC as baseline material and for mixing with the bio-fuel for combustion testing. EERC combustion testing of the bio based fuels is scheduled to begin in August of 2001. The TVA-Colbert facility has neared completion of the task to evaluate the co-location of the Masada facility on the operation of the power generation facility. The TVA-Colbert fossil plant is fully capable of providing a reliable steam supply. The preferred steam supply connection points and steam pipeline routing have been identified. The environmental review of the pipeline routing has been completed and no major impacts have been identified. Detailed assessment of steam export impacts on the Colbert boiler system have been completed and a cost estimate for steam supply system was completed. The cost estimate and the output and heat rate impacts will be used to determine a preliminary price for the exported steam. The preliminary steam price will be determined in the next quarter.« less

Uncertainty estimation with bias-correction for flow series based on rating curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Quanxi; Lerat, Julien; Podger, Geoff; Dutta, Dushmanta

2014-03-01

Streamflow discharge constitutes one of the fundamental data required to perform water balance studies and develop hydrological models. A rating curve, designed based on a series of concurrent stage and discharge measurements at a gauging location, provides a way to generate complete discharge time series with a reasonable quality if sufficient measurement points are available. However, the associated uncertainty is frequently not available even though it has a significant impact on hydrological modelling. In this paper, we identify the discrepancy of the hydrographers' rating curves used to derive the historical discharge data series and proposed a modification by bias correction which is also in the form of power function as the traditional rating curve. In order to obtain the uncertainty estimation, we propose a further both-side Box-Cox transformation to stabilize the regression residuals as close to the normal distribution as possible, so that a proper uncertainty can be attached for the whole discharge series in the ensemble generation. We demonstrate the proposed method by applying it to the gauging stations in the Flinders and Gilbert rivers in north-west Queensland, Australia.

Modeling of in-use stability for tablets and powders in bottles.

PubMed

Waterman, Kenneth C; Chen, Lili; Waterman, Philip; MacDonald, Bruce C; Monahan, Andrew P; Scrivens, Garry

2016-10-01

A model is presented for determining the time when an active pharmaceutical ingredient in tablets/powders will remain within its specification limits during an in-use period; that is, when a heat-induction sealed bottle is opened for fixed time periods and where tablets are removed at fixed time points. This model combines the Accelerated Stability Assessment Program to determine the impact on degradation rates of relative humidity (RH) with calculations of the RH as a function of time for the dosage forms under in-use conditions. These calculations, in a conservative approach, assume that the air inside bottles with broached heat-induction seals completely exchanges with the external environment during periods when the bottle remains open. The solid dosages are assumed to sorb water at estimable rates during these openings. When bottles are capped, the moisture vapor transmission rate can be estimated to determine the changing RH inside the bottles between opening events. The impact of silica gel desiccants can also be included in the modeling.

A Complete Set of Radiative and Auger Rates for K-vacancy States in Fe XVIII-Fe-XXV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmeri, P.; Mendoza, C.; Kallman, T. R.; Bautista, M. A.

2003-01-01

A complete set of level energies, wavelengths, A-values, and total and partial Auger rates have been computed for transitions involving the K-vacancy states within the n = 2 complex of Fe XVIII-Fe XXV. Three different standard numerical packages are used for this purpose, namel y AUTOSTRUCTURE, the Breit-Pauli R-matrix suite (BPRM) and HFR, which allow reliable estimates of the physical effects involved and of the accuracy of the resulting data sets. The Breit interaction is taken i nto account because its contributions to the small A-values and partial Auger rates cannot be neglected with increasing electron occupancy. Semiempirical adjustments can also lead to large differences in both the radiative and Auger decay data of strongly mixed levels. Several experimental level energies and wavelengths are questioned, and significant discrepancies are found with previously computed decay rates th at are attributed to numerical problems. The statistical accuracy of the present level energies and wavelengths is ranked at +/-3 eV and +/ -2 mA, respectively, and that for A-values and partial Auger rates greater than lO(exp 13)/s at better than 20%.

Evaluation of Hanford Single-Shell Waste Tanks Suspected of Water Intrusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feero, Amie J.; Washenfelder, Dennis J.; Johnson, Jeremy M.

2013-11-14

Intrusions evaluations for twelve single-shell tanks were completed in 2013. The evaluations consisted of remote visual inspections, data analysis, and calculations of estimated intrusion rates. The observation of an intrusion or the preponderance of evidence confirmed that six of the twelve tanks evaluated had intrusions. These tanks were tanks 241-A-103, BX-101, BX-103, BX-110, BY-102, and SX-106.

24 CFR Appendix C to Part 3500 - Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... underwriting. The amount stated in Block 1 is subject to zero tolerance, i.e., the amount may not increase at... payment (i.e., the credit or charge for the specific interest rate chosen is zero), the mortgage broker... indicating there is a charge of “0”. The amount stated in Block 2 is subject to zero tolerance while the...

24 CFR Appendix C to Part 3500 - Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... underwriting. The amount stated in Block 1 is subject to zero tolerance, i.e., the amount may not increase at... payment (i.e., the credit or charge for the specific interest rate chosen is zero), the mortgage broker... indicating there is a charge of “0”. The amount stated in Block 2 is subject to zero tolerance while the...

24 CFR Appendix C to Part 3500 - Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... underwriting. The amount stated in Block 1 is subject to zero tolerance, i.e., the amount may not increase at... payment (i.e., the credit or charge for the specific interest rate chosen is zero), the mortgage broker... indicating there is a charge of “0”. The amount stated in Block 2 is subject to zero tolerance while the...

Filling in the gaps: estimating numbers of chlamydia tests and diagnoses by age group and sex before and during the implementation of the English National Screening Programme, 2000 to 2012.

PubMed

Chandra, Nastassya L; Soldan, Kate; Dangerfield, Ciara; Sile, Bersabeh; Duffell, Stephen; Talebi, Alireza; Choi, Yoon H; Hughes, Gwenda; Woodhall, Sarah C

2017-02-02

To inform mathematical modelling of the impact of chlamydia screening in England since 2000, a complete picture of chlamydia testing is needed. Monitoring and surveillance systems evolved between 2000 and 2012. Since 2012, data on publicly funded chlamydia tests and diagnoses have been collected nationally. However, gaps exist for earlier years. We collated available data on chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates among 15-44-year-olds by sex and age group for 2000-2012. Where data were unavailable, we applied data- and evidence-based assumptions to construct plausible minimum and maximum estimates and set bounds on uncertainty. There was a large range between estimates in years when datasets were less comprehensive (2000-2008); smaller ranges were seen hereafter. In 15-19-year-old women in 2000, the estimated diagnosis rate ranged between 891 and 2,489 diagnoses per 100,000 persons. Testing and diagnosis rates increased between 2000 and 2012 in women and men across all age groups using minimum or maximum estimates, with greatest increases seen among 15-24-year-olds. Our dataset can be used to parameterise and validate mathematical models and serve as a reference dataset to which trends in chlamydia-related complications can be compared. Our analysis highlights the complexities of combining monitoring and surveillance datasets. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

Cost-to-Complete Estimates and Financial Reporting for the Management of the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-26

Audit Report Cost-to-Complete Estimates and Financial Reporting for the Management of the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction...Complete Estimates and Financial Reporting for the Management of the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c...RECONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT OFFICE DIRECTOR, PROJECT AND CONTRACTING OFFICE SUBJECT: Cost-to-Complete Estimates and Financial Reporting for the Management of

Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution From Multi-Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Morrissey, Mark M.; Curtis, Scott; Joyce, Robert; McGavock, Brad; Susskind, Joel

2000-01-01

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) technique is described for producing globally complete daily estimates of precipitation on a 1 deg x 1 deg lat/long grid from currently available observational data. Where possible (40 deg N-40 deg S), the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI) provides precipitation estimates in which the 3-hourly infrared brightness temperatures (IR T(sub b)) are thresholded and all "cold" pixels are given a single precipitation rate. This approach is an adaptation of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index (GPI), but for the TMPI the IR Tb threshold and conditional rain rate are set locally by month from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-based precipitation frequency and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite-gauge (SG) combined monthly precipitation estimate, respectively. At higher latitudes the 1DD features a rescaled daily Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) precipitation. The frequency of rain days in the TOVS is scaled down to match that in the TMPI at the data boundaries, and the resulting non-zero TOVS values are scaled locally to sum to the SG (which is a globally complete monthly product). The time series of the daily 1DD global images shows good continuity in time and across the data boundaries. Various examples are shown to illustrate uses. Validation for individual grid -box values shows a very high root-mean-square error but, it improves quickly when users perform time/space averaging according to their own requirements.

The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections.

PubMed

Benjamin, Daniel M; Budescu, David V

2018-01-01

Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people's interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting ; (2) imprecise , but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and rated the sets on several features - ambiguity, credibility, completeness, etc. In Study 1, everyone saw the same hybrid set. We found that participants were sensitive to uncertainty between sources, but not to uncertainty about which model was used. The impacts of conflict and imprecision were combined for estimation tasks and compromised for feature ratings . Estimates were closer to the experts' original projections, and sets were rated more favorably under imprecision. Estimates were least consistent with (narrower than) the experts in the hybrid condition, but participants rated the conflicting set least favorably. In Study 2, we investigated the hybrid case in more detail by creating several distinct interval sets that combine conflict and imprecision. Two factors drive perceptual differences: overlap - the structure of the forecast set (whether intersecting, nested, tangent, or disjoint) - and a symmetry - the balance of the set. Estimates were primarily driven by asymmetry, and preferences were primarily driven by overlap. Asymmetric sets were least consistent with the experts: estimated ranges were narrower, and estimates of the most likely value were shifted further below the set mean. Intersecting and nested sets were rated similarly to imprecision, and ratings of disjoint and tangent sets were rated like conflict. Our goal was to determine which underlying factors of information sets drive perceptions of uncertainty in consistent, predictable ways. The two studies lead us to conclude that perceptions of agreement require intersection and balance, and overly precise forecasts lead to greater perceptions of disagreement and a greater likelihood of the public discrediting and misinterpreting information.

The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel M.; Budescu, David V.

2018-01-01

Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people’s interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting; (2) imprecise, but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and rated the sets on several features – ambiguity, credibility, completeness, etc. In Study 1, everyone saw the same hybrid set. We found that participants were sensitive to uncertainty between sources, but not to uncertainty about which model was used. The impacts of conflict and imprecision were combined for estimation tasks and compromised for feature ratings. Estimates were closer to the experts’ original projections, and sets were rated more favorably under imprecision. Estimates were least consistent with (narrower than) the experts in the hybrid condition, but participants rated the conflicting set least favorably. In Study 2, we investigated the hybrid case in more detail by creating several distinct interval sets that combine conflict and imprecision. Two factors drive perceptual differences: overlap – the structure of the forecast set (whether intersecting, nested, tangent, or disjoint) – and asymmetry – the balance of the set. Estimates were primarily driven by asymmetry, and preferences were primarily driven by overlap. Asymmetric sets were least consistent with the experts: estimated ranges were narrower, and estimates of the most likely value were shifted further below the set mean. Intersecting and nested sets were rated similarly to imprecision, and ratings of disjoint and tangent sets were rated like conflict. Our goal was to determine which underlying factors of information sets drive perceptions of uncertainty in consistent, predictable ways. The two studies lead us to conclude that perceptions of agreement require intersection and balance, and overly precise forecasts lead to greater perceptions of disagreement and a greater likelihood of the public discrediting and misinterpreting information. PMID:29636717

Physiological responses at five estimates of critical velocity.

PubMed

Bull, Anthony J; Housh, Terry J; Johnson, Glen O; Rana, Sharon R

2008-04-01

The purpose of this study was to compare critical velocity (CV) estimates from five mathematical models, and to examine the oxygen uptake (VO(2)) and heart rate (HR) responses during treadmill runs at the five estimates of CV. Ten subjects (six males and four females) performed one incremental test to determine maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2max)) and four or five randomly ordered constant-velocity trials on a treadmill for the estimation of CV. Five mathematical models were used to estimate CV for each subject including two linear, two nonlinear, and an exponential model. Up to five randomly ordered runs to exhaustion were performed by each subject at treadmill velocities that corresponded to the five CV estimates, and VO(2) and HR responses were monitored throughout each trial. The 3-parameter, nonlinear (Non-3) model produced CV estimates that were significantly (P < 0.05) less than the other four models. During runs at CV estimates, five subjects did not complete 60 min at the their estimate from the Non-3 model, nine did not complete 60 min at their estimate from the Non-2 model, and no subjects completed 60 min at any estimate from the other three models. The mean HR value (179 +/- 18 beats min(-1), HR(peak)) at the end of runs at CV using the Non-3 model was significantly less than the maximal HR (195 +/- 7 beats min(-1), HR(max)) achieved during the incremental trial to exhaustion. However, mean HR(peak) values from runs at all other CV estimates were not significantly different from HR(max). Furthermore, data indicated that mean HR(peak) values increased during runs at CV estimates from the third minute to the end of exercise for all models, and that these increases in VO(2) (range = 367-458 ml min(-1)) were significantly greater than that typically associated with O(2) drift ( approximately 200 ml min(-1)) for all but the exponential model, indicating a VO(2) slow component associated with CV estimates from four of the five models. However, the mean VO(2) values at the end of exercise during the runs at CV estimates for all five mathematical models were significantly less than the mean VO(2max) value. These results suggest that, in most cases, CV estimated from the five models does not represent a fatigueless task. In addition, the mean CV estimates from the five models varied by 18%, and four of the five mean CV estimates were within the heavy exercise domain. Therefore, CV would not represent the demarcation point between heavy and severe exercise domains.

Primate diversification inferred from phylogenies and fossils.

PubMed

Herrera, James P

2017-12-01

Biodiversity arises from the balance between speciation and extinction. Fossils record the origins and disappearance of organisms, and the branching patterns of molecular phylogenies allow estimation of speciation and extinction rates, but the patterns of diversification are frequently incongruent between these two data sources. I tested two hypotheses about the diversification of primates based on ∼600 fossil species and 90% complete phylogenies of living species: (1) diversification rates increased through time; (2) a significant extinction event occurred in the Oligocene. Consistent with the first hypothesis, analyses of phylogenies supported increasing speciation rates and negligible extinction rates. In contrast, fossils showed that while speciation rates increased, speciation and extinction rates tended to be nearly equal, resulting in zero net diversification. Partially supporting the second hypothesis, the fossil data recorded a clear pattern of diversity decline in the Oligocene, although diversification rates were near zero. The phylogeny supported increased extinction ∼34 Ma, but also elevated extinction ∼10 Ma, coinciding with diversity declines in some fossil clades. The results demonstrated that estimates of speciation and extinction ignoring fossils are insufficient to infer diversification and information on extinct lineages should be incorporated into phylogenetic analyses. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Cybernetic modeling based on pathway analysis for Penicillium chrysogenum fed-batch fermentation.

PubMed

Geng, Jun; Yuan, Jingqi

2010-08-01

A macrokinetic model employing cybernetic methodology is proposed to describe mycelium growth and penicillin production. Based on the primordial and complete metabolic network of Penicillium chrysogenum found in the literature, the modeling procedure is guided by metabolic flux analysis and cybernetic modeling framework. The abstracted cybernetic model describes the transients of the consumption rates of the substrates, the assimilation rates of intermediates, the biomass growth rate, as well as the penicillin formation rate. Combined with the bioreactor model, these reaction rates are linked with the most important state variables, i.e., mycelium, substrate and product concentrations. Simplex method is used to estimate the sensitive parameters of the model. Finally, validation of the model is carried out with 20 batches of industrial-scale penicillin cultivation.

A Twenty-Year Survey of Novae in M31

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crayton, Hannah; Rector, Travis A.; Walentosky, Matthew J.; Shafter, Allen W.; Lauber, Stephanie; Pilachowski, Catherine A.; RBSE Nova Search Team

2018-06-01

Numerous surveys of M31 in search of extragalactic novae have been completed over the last century, with a total of more than 1000 having been discovered during this time. From these surveys it has been estimated that the number of novae that occur in M31 is approximately 65 yr-1 (Darnley et al. 2006). A fraction of these are recurrent novae that recur on the timescales of years to decades (Shafter et al. 2015). From 1997 to 2017 we completed observations of M31 with the KPNO/WIYN 0.9-meter telescope, which offers a wide field of view suitable for surveying nearly all of the bulge and much of the disk of M31. Observations were completed in Hα so as to better detect novae in the bulge of the galaxy, where most novae reside. Our survey achieves a limiting absolute magnitude per epoch of MHα ∼ 7.5 mag, which prior M31 nova surveys in Hα (e.g., Ciardullo et al. 1987; Shafter & Irby 2001) have shown to be sufficiently deep to detect a typical nova several months after eruption. By completing nearly all of the observations with the same telescope, cameras, and filters we were able to obtain a remarkably consistent dataset.Our survey offers several benefits as compared to prior surveys. Nearly 200 epochs of observations were completed during the survey period. Observations were typically completed on a monthly basis; although on several occasions we completed weekly and nightly observations to search for novae with faster decay rates. Thus we were sensitive to most of the novae that erupted in M31 during the survey period.Over twenty years we detected 316 novae. Our survey found 85% of the novae in M31 that were reported by other surveys completed during the same time range and in the same survey area as ours (Pietsch et al. 2007). We also discovered 39 novae that were not found by other surveys. We present the complete catalog of novae from our survey, along with example light curves. Among other uses, our catalog will be useful for improving estimates of nova rate in M31. We also identify 72 standard stars within the survey area that will be useful for future surveys.

Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases.

PubMed

Chong, Ka Chun; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian

2018-04-10

In an influenza pandemic, arrival times of cases are a proxy of the epidemic size and disease transmissibility. Because of intense surveillance of travelers from infected countries, detection is more rapid and complete than on local surveillance. Travel information can provide a more reliable estimation of transmission parameters. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in addition to the reporting rate and unobserved epidemic start time, utilizing travel, and routine surveillance data in an influenza pandemic. A simulation was conducted to assess the sampling uncertainty. The estimation approach was further applied to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico as a case study. In the simulations, we showed that the estimation approach was valid and reliable in different simulation settings. We also found estimates of R 0 and the reporting rate to be 1.37 (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 1.26-1.42) and 4.9% (95% CI: 0.1%-18%), respectively, in the 2009 influenza pandemic in Mexico, which were robust to variations in the fixed parameters. The estimated R 0 was consistent with that in the literature. This method is useful for officials to obtain reliable estimates of disease transmissibility for strategic planning. We suggest that improvements to the flow of reporting for confirmed cases among patients arriving at different countries are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ASYMPTOTICS FOR CHANGE-POINT MODELS UNDER VARYING DEGREES OF MIS-SPECIFICATION

PubMed Central

SONG, RUI; BANERJEE, MOULINATH; KOSOROK, MICHAEL R.

2015-01-01

Change-point models are widely used by statisticians to model drastic changes in the pattern of observed data. Least squares/maximum likelihood based estimation of change-points leads to curious asymptotic phenomena. When the change–point model is correctly specified, such estimates generally converge at a fast rate (n) and are asymptotically described by minimizers of a jump process. Under complete mis-specification by a smooth curve, i.e. when a change–point model is fitted to data described by a smooth curve, the rate of convergence slows down to n1/3 and the limit distribution changes to that of the minimizer of a continuous Gaussian process. In this paper we provide a bridge between these two extreme scenarios by studying the limit behavior of change–point estimates under varying degrees of model mis-specification by smooth curves, which can be viewed as local alternatives. We find that the limiting regime depends on how quickly the alternatives approach a change–point model. We unravel a family of ‘intermediate’ limits that can transition, at least qualitatively, to the limits in the two extreme scenarios. The theoretical results are illustrated via a set of carefully designed simulations. We also demonstrate how inference for the change-point parameter can be performed in absence of knowledge of the underlying scenario by resorting to subsampling techniques that involve estimation of the convergence rate. PMID:26681814

Vaccination and All-Cause Child Mortality From 1985 to 2011: Global Evidence From the Demographic and Health Surveys

PubMed Central

McGovern, Mark E.; Canning, David

2015-01-01

Based on models with calibrated parameters for infection, case fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy, basic childhood vaccinations have been estimated to be highly cost effective. We estimated the association of vaccination with mortality directly from survey data. Using 149 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, we determined the relationship between vaccination coverage and the probability of dying between birth and 5 years of age at the survey cluster level. Our data included approximately 1 million children in 68,490 clusters from 62 countries. We considered the childhood measles, bacillus Calmette-Guérin, diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus, polio, and maternal tetanus vaccinations. Using modified Poisson regression to estimate the relative risk of child mortality in each cluster, we also adjusted for selection bias that resulted from the vaccination status of dead children not being reported. Childhood vaccination, and in particular measles and tetanus vaccination, is associated with substantial reductions in childhood mortality. We estimated that children in clusters with complete vaccination coverage have a relative risk of mortality that is 0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.68, 0.77) times that of children in a cluster with no vaccinations. Although widely used, basic vaccines still have coverage rates well below 100% in many countries, and our results emphasize the effectiveness of increasing coverage rates in order to reduce child mortality. PMID:26453618

Estimating Air Pollution Removal Through an Analysis of Vegetation Communities in Government Canyon State Natural Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medrano, Nicolas W.

Ambient air pollution is a major issue in urban environments, causing negative health impacts and increasing costs for metropolitan economies. Vegetation has been shown to remove these pollutants at a substantial rate. This study utilizes the i-Tree Eco (UFORE) and i-Tree Canopy models to estimate air pollution removal services provided by trees in Government Canyon State Natural Area (GCSNA), an approximately 4,700 hectare area in San Antonio, Texas. For i-Tree Eco, a stratified project of the five prominent vegetation types was completed. A comparison of removal services provided by vegetation communities indicated there was no significant difference in removal rates. Total pollution removal of GCSNA was estimated to be 239.52 metric tons/year at a rate of 64.42 kg/ha of tree cover/year. By applying this value to the area within Bexar County, Texas belonging to the Balcones Canyonlands ecoregion, it was determined that for 2013 an estimated 2,598.45 metric tons/year of air pollution was removed at a health value to society of 19.4 million. This is a reduction in pollution removal services since 2003, in which 3,050.35 metric tons/year were removed at a health value of 22.8 million. These results suggest urban sprawl taking place in San Antonio is reducing air pollution removal services provided by trees.

Land-cover trends in the Mojave basin and range ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Raumann, Christian G.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Land-Cover Trends Project aims to estimate the rates of contemporary land-cover change within the conterminous United States between 1972 and 2000. A random sampling approach was used to select a representative sample of 10-km by 10-km sample blocks and to estimate change within +/- 1 percent at an 85-percent confidence interval. Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus data were used, and each 60-m pixel was assigned to one of 11 distinct land-cover classes based upon a modified Anderson classification system. Upon completion of land-cover change mapping for five dates, land-cover change statistics were generated and analyzed. This paper presents estimates for the Mojave Basin and Range ecoregion located in the southwestern United States. Our research suggests land-cover change within the Mojave to be relatively rare and highly localized. The primary shift in land cover is unidirectional, with natural desert grass/shrubland being converted to development. We estimate that more than 1,300 km2 have been converted since 1973 and that the conversion is being largely driven by economic and recreational opportunities provided by the Mojave ecoregion. The time interval with the highest rate of change was 1986 to 1992, in which the rate was 0.21 percent (321.9 km2) per year total change.

Sedimentation Survey of Lago Icacos, Puerto Rico, March 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soler-López, Luis R.

2007-01-01

The Lago Icacos, a small reservoir built in 1930 and owned by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, is part of the Rio Blanco Hydroelectric Power System. The reservoir is located in Naguabo, within the Caribbean National Forest in eastern Puerto Rico. The original storage capacity of the reservoir was 19,119 cubic meters in 1930. The bathymetric survey conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in March 2004 indicates a storage capacity of 7,435 cubic meters or 39 percent of the original storage capacity, and a maximum depth of 5.3 meters. The reservoir has been dredged several times to restore lost storage capacity caused by high sediment loads and the frequent landslides that occur upstream from the dam, which have partially or completely filled the Lago Icacos. Because sediment removal activities have not been documented, sedimentation rates could not be determined using storage volume comparisons. A reservoir sedimentation rate was calculated using the daily sediment load data gathered at the U.S. Geological Survey Rio Icacos streamflow station upstream of the reservoir, the estimated Lago Icacos sediment trapping efficiency, and the estimated sediment yield of the Lago Icacos basin extrapolated from the Rio Icacos sediment load data. Using these properties, the Lago Icacos sedimentation rate was estimated as 71 cubic meters per year, equivalent to about 1 percent of the original storage capacity per year. The Lago Icacos 7.47-square-kilometer drainage area sediment yield was estimated as 7,126 tonnes per year or about 954 tonnes per square kilometer per year. Based on the current estimated sedimentation rate of 71 cubic meters per year, Lago Icacos has a useful life of about 105 years or to year 2109.

Measurement Properties of Performance-Specific Pain Ratings of Patients Awaiting Total Joint Arthroplasty as a Consequence of Osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Stratford, Paul W.; Kennedy, Deborah M.; Woodhouse, Linda J.; Spadoni, Gregory

2008-01-01

Purpose: To estimate the test–retest reliability of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain sub-scale and performance-specific assessments of pain, as well as the association between these measures for patients awaiting primary total hip or knee arthroplasty as a consequence of osteoarthritis. Methods: A total of 164 patients awaiting unilateral primary hip or knee arthroplasty completed four performance measures (self-paced walk, timed up and go, stair test, six-minute walk) and the WOMAC. Scores for 22 of these patients provided test–retest reliability data. Estimates of test–retest reliability (Type 2,1 intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] and standard error of measurement [SEM]) and the association between measures were examined. Results: ICC values for individual performance-specific pain ratings were between 0.70 and 0.86; SEM values were between 0.97 and 1.33 pain points. ICC estimates for the four-item performance pain ratings and the WOMAC pain sub-scale were 0.82 and 0.57 respectively. The correlation between the sum of the pain scores for the four performance measures and the WOMAC pain sub-scale was 0.62. Conclusion: Reliability estimates for the performance-specific assessments of pain using the numeric pain rating scale were consistent with values reported for patients with a spectrum of musculoskeletal conditions. The reliability estimate for the WOMAC pain sub-scale was lower than typically reported in the literature. The level of association between the WOMAC pain sub-scale and the various performance-specific pain scales suggests that the scores can be used interchangeably when applied to groups but not for individual patients. PMID:20145758

Estimating Attitude, Trajectory, and Gyro Biases in an Extended Kalman Filter using Earth Magnetic Field Data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deutschmann, Julie; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack

1997-01-01

Traditionally satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate systems, using different measurement data. The estimation of both trajectory and attitude for low earth orbit satellites has been successfully demonstrated in ground software using magnetometer and gyroscope data. Since the earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computed and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. This work further tests the single augmented Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which simultaneously and autonomously estimates spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) magnetometer and gyro-measured body rates. In addition, gyro biases are added to the state and the filter's ability to estimate them is presented.

Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.

2016-12-01

Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also apply instantaneous adaptation in each year to the regional relationship corresponding to each region's new climate. We show that the rate of adaptation is the critical obstacle to further mortality benefits, while the small observed range of regional adaptations is causing the low adaptive benefits in crime.

Complete surgical resection improves outcome in INRG high-risk patients with localized neuroblastoma older than 18 months.

PubMed

Fischer, Janina; Pohl, Alexandra; Volland, Ruth; Hero, Barbara; Dübbers, Martin; Cernaianu, Grigore; Berthold, Frank; von Schweinitz, Dietrich; Simon, Thorsten

2017-08-04

Although several studies have been conducted on the role of surgery in localized neuroblastoma, the impact of surgical timing and extent of primary tumor resection on outcome in high-risk patients remains controversial. Patients from the German neuroblastoma trial NB97 with localized neuroblastoma INSS stage 1-3 age > 18 months were included for retrospective analysis. Imaging reports were reviewed by two independent physicians for Image Defined Risk Factors (IDRF). Operation notes and corresponding imaging reports were analyzed for surgical radicality. The extent of tumor resection was classified as complete resection (95-100%), gross total resection (90-95%), incomplete resection (50-90%), and biopsy (<50%) and correlated with local control rate and outcome. Patients were stratified according to the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) staging system. Survival curves were estimated according to the method of Kaplan and Meier and compared by the log-rank test. A total of 179 patients were included in this study. 77 patients underwent more than one primary tumor operation. After best surgery, 68.7% of patients achieved complete resection of the primary tumor, 16.8% gross total resection, 14.0% incomplete surgery, and 0.5% biopsy only. The cumulative complication rate was 20.3% and the surgery associated mortality rate was 1.1%. Image defined risk factors (IDRF) predicted the extent of resection. Patients with complete resection had a better local-progression-free survival (LPFS), event-free survival (EFS) and OS (overall survival) than the other groups. Subgroup analyses showed better EFS, LPFS and OS for patients with complete resection in INRG high-risk patients. Multivariable analyses revealed resection (complete vs. other), and MYCN (non-amplified vs. amplified) as independent prognostic factors for EFS, LPFS and OS. In patients with localized neuroblastoma age 18 months or older, especially in INRG high-risk patients harboring MYCN amplification, extended surgery of the primary tumor site improved local control rate and survival with an acceptable risk of complications.

Initiation & completion rates of hepatitis A vaccination among US pediatric populations born between 2005 and 2009.

PubMed

Weiss, Thomas; Zhang, Dongmu; Borse, Nagesh N; Walter, Emmanuel B

2015-11-27

To estimate hepatitis A vaccine series initiation and completion rates, assess time to vaccination, identify missed opportunities for the hepatitis A vaccine series, and examine factors associated with hepatitis A vaccine series initiation and completion. We conducted a retrospective, observational study using three healthcare claims databases separately. The study population was comprised of children born between years 2005 and 2009 that were continuously enrolled for at least three and a half years from the date of birth. Every child was followed from date of birth for three and a half years for hepatitis A vaccination. There were 93,735 eligible children from Clinformatics Data Mart, 202,513 from MarketScan Commercial, and 207,545 from MarketScan Medicaid. The overall hepatitis A vaccine series initiation rate was 63.8-79.4% and completion rate was 45.1-66.8% across the three databases. About 62.8-90.1% of the children who never initiated hepatitis A vaccine had at least one well visit from 1 year to three and a half years old. Children were more likely to initiate and complete the hepatitis A vaccine series if they were from more recent birth cohorts, from states with a hepatitis A vaccination recommendation prior to the ACIP universal recommendation, from states with daycare/school entry requirements, were enrolled in an HMO health plan, had pediatricians as primary providers, had more doctor's office/well visits and received MMR/Varicella vaccines. In this study, approximately one in every three to five children remained unvaccinated against hepatitis A. Although the hepatitis A vaccine series initiation and completion improved from 2005 to 2009, vaccine coverage has stabilized in recent years. It is important for providers to identify every opportunity for hepatitis A vaccination and to assure that children get protection from this vaccine-preventable disease. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The geochemical evolution of riparian ground water in a forested piedmont catchment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Plummer, Niel; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Kendall, Carol; Hooper, Richard P.; Freer, James E.; Peters, Norman E.; Beven, Keith; Schlosser, Peter

2003-01-01

The principal weathering reactions and their rates in riparian ground water were determined at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW) near Atlanta, Georgia. Concentrations of major solutes were measured in ground water samples from 19 shallow wells completed in the riparian (saprolite) aquifer and in one borehole completed in granite, and the apparent age of each sample was calculated from chloroflourocarbons and tritium/helium-3 data. Concentrations of SiO2, Na+, and Ca2+ generally increased downvalley and were highest in the borehole near the watershed outlet. Strong positive correlations were found between the concentrations of these solutes and the apparent age of ground water that was modern (zero to one year) in the headwaters, six to seven years midway down the valley, and 26 to 27 years in the borehole, located ∼500 m downstream from the headwaters. Mass-balance modeling of chemical evolution showed that the downstream changes in ground water chemistry could be largely explained by weathering of plagioclase to kaolinite, with possible contributions from weathering of K-feldspar, biotite, hornblende, and calcite. The in situ rates of weathering reactions were estimated by combining the ground water age dates with geochemical mass-balance modeling results. The weathering rate was highest for plagioclase (∼6.4 μmol/L/year), but could not be easily compared with most other published results for feldspar weathering at PMRW and elsewhere because the mineral-surface area to which ground water was exposed during geochemical evolution could not be estimated. However, a preliminary estimate of the mineral-surface area that would have contacted the ground water to provide the observed solute concentrations suggests that the plagioclase weathering rate calculated in this study is similar to the rate calculated in a previous study at PMRW, and three to four orders of magnitude slower than those published in previous laboratory studies of feldspar weathering. An accurate model of the geochemical evolution of riparian ground water is necessary to accurately model the geochemical evolution of stream water at PMRW.

Do family and neighbourhood matter in secondary school completion? A multilevel study of determinants and their interactions in a life-course perspective.

PubMed

Myhr, Arnhild; Lillefjell, Monica; Espnes, Geir Arild; Halvorsen, Thomas

2017-01-01

Completion of secondary education is important for individuals' future health and health behaviour. The fundamental purpose of this study is to investigate the variation and clustering of school completion in families and neighbourhoods. Secondly, we aim to examine the impact of individuals' family structure and neighbourhood of residence and examine to what extent parental education level moderates these associations. Longitudinal register data for 30% of the entire Norwegian population aged 21-27 years in 2010 (N = 107,003) was extracted from Statistic Norway´s event database. Three-level logistic regression models, which incorporated individual, family, and neighbourhood contextual factors, were applied to estimate the family and neighbourhood general contextual effects and detect possible educational differences in the impact of family structure and urban place of residence in school completion. Completion rates were significantly higher within families with higher education level (79% in tertiary educated families vs. 61% and 48% in secondary and primary educated families respectively) and were strongly correlated within families (ICC = 39.6) and neighbourhoods (ICC = 5.7). Several structural factors at the family level negatively associated with school completion (e.g., family disruption, large family size, and young maternal age) were more prevalent and displayed more negative impact among primary educated individuals. Urban residence was associated with school completion, but only among the tertiary educated. Investment in the resources in the individuals' immediate surroundings, including family and neighbourhood, may address a substantial portion of the social inequalities in the completion of upper secondary education. The high intra-familial correlation in school completion suggests that public health policies and future research should acknowledge family environments in order to improve secondary education completion rates among young people within lower educated families.

Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention

PubMed Central

Boyd, Matt; Baker, Michael G.; Mansoor, Osman D.; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Wilson, Nick

2017-01-01

Background Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. Objective To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. Methods An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). Results For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). Conclusions This “proof-of-concept” work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective. PMID:28622344

Whole genome characterization of human influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated from Kenya during the 2009 pandemic.

PubMed

Gachara, George; Symekher, Samuel; Otieno, Michael; Magana, Japheth; Opot, Benjamin; Bulimo, Wallace

2016-06-01

An influenza pandemic caused by a novel influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 spread worldwide in 2009 and is estimated to have caused between 151,700 and 575,400 deaths globally. While whole genome data on new virus enables a deeper insight in the pathogenesis, epidemiology, and drug sensitivities of the circulating viruses, there are relatively limited complete genetic sequences available for this virus from African countries. We describe herein the full genome analysis of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated in Kenya between June 2009 and August 2010. A total of 40 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated during the pandemic were selected. The segments from each isolate were amplified and directly sequenced. The resulting sequences of individual gene segments were concatenated and used for subsequent analysis. These were used to infer phylogenetic relationships and also to reconstruct the time of most recent ancestor, time of introduction into the country, rates of substitution and to estimate a time-resolved phylogeny. The Kenyan complete genome sequences clustered with globally distributed clade 2 and clade 7 sequences but local clade 2 viruses did not circulate beyond the introductory foci while clade 7 viruses disseminated country wide. The time of the most recent common ancestor was estimated between April and June 2009, and distinct clusters circulated during the pandemic. The complete genome had an estimated rate of nucleotide substitution of 4.9×10(-3) substitutions/site/year and greater diversity in surface expressed proteins was observed. We show that two clades of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were introduced into Kenya from the UK and the pandemic was sustained as a result of importations. Several closely related but distinct clusters co-circulated locally during the peak pandemic phase but only one cluster dominated in the late phase of the pandemic suggesting that it possessed greater adaptability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bioceramic bone graft substitute for treatment of unicameral bone cysts.

PubMed

Fillingham, Y A; Cvetanovich, G L; Haughom, B D; Erickson, B J; Gitelis, S

2016-08-01

To review the outcome of 12 patients who underwent debridement and injection of bioceramic for unicameral bone cyst (UBC). The resorption rate of the bioceramic was estimated by both traditional and novel methods. Records of 10 males and 2 females aged 6 to 34 years who underwent debridement and injection of bioceramic for UBC and were followed up for a mean of 41 (range, 26-57) months were reviewed. Functional outcome was assessed using the selfcompleted Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) questionnaire. Radiological outcome was assessed using both original and modified Neer Outcome Rating System. The resorption rate of the bioceramic was estimated using both traditional and novel (ImageJ) methods. The mean MSTS score was 29.7 (range, 28-30) indicating excellent functional outcome. Of the 12 patients, 9 achieved complete healing and 3 had a residual cyst of 1%, 11%, and 52%. The last was considered a local recurrence, and the patient underwent repeat percutaneous injection of the bioceramic 1.5 years later and remained disease-free 4 years later. The mean resorption rate was 29% faster when estimated using the traditional rather than the ImageJ method (0.47 vs. 0.33 cm3/day, p=0.02). In the patient with recurrence, the resorption rate was faster than the average (0.68 vs. 0.33 cm3/day). A single percutaneous injection of the bioceramic for UBC achieved good functional and radiological outcome while avoiding donor-site morbidity.

Divergence times and the evolution of morphological complexity in an early land plant lineage (Marchantiopsida) with a slow molecular rate.

PubMed

Villarreal A, Juan Carlos; Crandall-Stotler, Barbara J; Hart, Michelle L; Long, David G; Forrest, Laura L

2016-03-01

We present a complete generic-level phylogeny of the complex thalloid liverworts, a lineage that includes the model system Marchantia polymorpha. The complex thalloids are remarkable for their slow rate of molecular evolution and for being the only extant plant lineage to differentiate gas exchange tissues in the gametophyte generation. We estimated the divergence times and analyzed the evolutionary trends of morphological traits, including air chambers, rhizoids and specialized reproductive structures. A multilocus dataset was analyzed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Relative rates were estimated using local clocks. Our phylogeny cements the early branching in complex thalloids. Marchantia is supported in one of the earliest divergent lineages. The rate of evolution in organellar loci is slower than for other liverwort lineages, except for two annual lineages. Most genera diverged in the Cretaceous. Marchantia polymorpha diversified in the Late Miocene, giving a minimum age estimate for the evolution of its sex chromosomes. The complex thalloid ancestor, excluding Blasiales, is reconstructed as a plant with a carpocephalum, with filament-less air chambers opening via compound pores, and without pegged rhizoids. Our comprehensive study of the group provides a temporal framework for the analysis of the evolution of critical traits essential for plants during land colonization. © 2015 Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage achievements in low and middle-income countries 2007-2016.

PubMed

Gallagher, Katherine E; Howard, Natasha; Kabakama, Severin; Mounier-Jack, Sandra; Burchett, Helen E D; LaMontagne, D Scott; Watson-Jones, Deborah

2017-12-01

Since 2007, HPV vaccine has been available to low and middle income countries (LAMIC) for small-scale 'demonstration projects', or national programmes. We analysed coverage achieved in HPV vaccine demonstration projects and national programmes that had completed at least 6 months of implementation between January 2007-2016. A mapping exercise identified 45 LAMICs with HPV vaccine delivery experience. Estimates of coverage and factors influencing coverage were obtained from 56 key informant interviews, a systematic published literature search of 5 databases that identified 61 relevant full texts and 188 solicited unpublished documents, including coverage surveys. Coverage achievements were analysed descriptively against country or project/programme characteristics. Heterogeneity in data, funder requirements, and project/programme design precluded multivariate analysis. Estimates of uptake, schedule completion rates and/or final dose coverage were available from 41 of 45 LAMICs included in the study. Only 17 estimates from 13 countries were from coverage surveys, most were administrative data. Final dose coverage estimates were all over 50% with most between 70% and 90%, and showed no trend over time. The majority of delivery strategies included schools as a vaccination venue. In countries with school enrolment rates below 90%, inclusion of strategies to reach out-of-school girls contributed to obtaining high coverage compared to school-only strategies. There was no correlation between final dose coverage and estimated recurrent financial costs of delivery from cost analyses. Coverage achieved during joint delivery of HPV vaccine combined with another intervention was variable with little/no evaluation of the correlates of success. This is the most comprehensive descriptive analysis of HPV vaccine coverage in LAMICs to date. It is possible to deliver HPV vaccine with excellent coverage in LAMICs. Further good quality data are needed from health facility based delivery strategies and national programmes to aid policymakers to effectively and sustainably scale-up HPV vaccination. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parameterizing the Logistic Model of Tumor Growth by DW-MRI and DCE-MRI Data to Predict Treatment Response and Changes in Breast Cancer Cellularity during Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy1

PubMed Central

Atuegwu, Nkiruka C; Arlinghaus, Lori R; Li, Xia; Chakravarthy, A Bapsi; Abramson, Vandana G; Sanders, Melinda E; Yankeelov, Thomas E

2013-01-01

Diffusion-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data of 28 patients were obtained pretreatment, after one cycle, and after completion of all cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). For each patient at each time point, the tumor cell number was estimated using the apparent diffusion coefficient and the extravascular extracellular (ve) and plasma volume (vp) fractions. The proliferation/death rate was obtained using the number of tumor cells from the first two time points in conjunction with the logistic model of tumor growth, which was then used to predict tumor cellularity at the conclusion of NAC. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted and the experimental number of tumor cells measured at the end of NAC was 0.81 (P = .0043). The proliferation rate estimated after the first cycle of therapy was able to separate patients who went on to achieve pathologic complete response from those who did not (P = .021) with a sensitivity and specificity of 82.4% and 72.7%, respectively. These data provide preliminary results indicating that incorporating readily available quantitative MRI data into a simple model of tumor growth can lead to potentially clinically relevant information for predicting an individual patient's response to NAC. PMID:23730404

Comparative evaluation of heart rate-based monitors: Apple Watch vs Fitbit Charge HR.

PubMed

Bai, Yang; Hibbing, Paul; Mantis, Constantine; Welk, Gregory J

2018-08-01

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the validity of energy expenditure (EE), steps, and heart rate measured with the Apple Watch 1 and Fitbit Charge HR. Thirty-nine healthy adults wore the two monitors while completing a semi-structured activity protocol consisting of 20 minutes of sedentary activity, 25 minutes of aerobic exercise, and 25 minutes of light intensity physical activity. Criterion measures were obtained from an Oxycon Mobile for EE, a pedometer for steps, and a Polar heart rate strap worn on the chest for heart rate. For estimating whole-trial EE, the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) from Fitbit Charge HR (32.9%) was more than twice that of Apple Watch 1 (15.2%). This trend was consistent for the individual conditions. Both monitors accurately assessed steps during aerobic activity (MAPE Apple : 6.2%; MAPE Fitbit : 9.4%) but overestimated steps in light physical activity. For heart rate, Fitbit Charge HR produced its smallest MAPE in sedentary behaviors (7.2%), followed by aerobic exercise (8.4%), and light activity (10.1%). The Apple Watch 1 had stronger validity than the Fitbit Charge HR for assessing overall EE and steps during aerobic exercise. The Fitbit Charge HR provided heart rate estimates that were statistically equivalent to Polar monitor.

[Adverse drug reaction reporting in emergency medicine].

PubMed

Milojevic, Kolia; Chassagnol, Isabelle; Brion, Nathalie; Cléro, Joël; Degrèze, Nathalie; Lambert, Yves

2004-01-01

A regional survey was performed between June and September 2002, to evaluate knowledge and attitudes of emergency physicians regarding adverse drug reaction (ADR) reporting in a French district. 100 questionnaires completed by physicians working in emergency departments and/or mobile intensive care units were analysed. The frequency of ADRs encountered by emergency practitioners was estimated at > or = 0.73 per year and per physician. The ADR notification rate in emergency medicine was estimated at < or = 6%. A minority of physicians were responsible for the majority of ADR reporting. Sixty-four percent of emergency physicians underestimated the conditions required for ADR notification: 28% thought that certain causality was an absolute necessary condition for notification, while 37% considered that notification was required only for ADRs that were both severe and unexpected. Interventions focused on advertising ADR reporting procedures could help to improve the notification rate in emergency medicine.

Assessment of physiological demand in kitesurfing.

PubMed

Vercruyssen, F; Blin, N; L'huillier, D; Brisswalter, J

2009-01-01

To evaluate the physiological demands of kitesurfing, ten elite subjects performed an incremental running test on a 400-m track and a 30-min on-water crossing trial during a light crosswind (LW, 12-15 knots). Oxygen uptake (V(O)(2)) was estimated from the heart rate (HR) recorded during the crossing trial using the individual HR-V(O)(2) relationship determined during the incremental test. Blood lactate concentration [La(b)] was measured at rest and 3 min after the exercise completion. Mean HR and estimated V(O)(2) values represented, respectively 80.6 +/- 7.5% of maximal heart rate and 69.8 +/- 11.7% of maximal oxygen uptake for board speeds ranging from 15 to 17 knots. Low values for [La(b)] were observed at the end of crossing trial (2.1 +/- 1.2 mmol l(-1). This first analysis of kitesurfing suggests that the energy demand is mainly sustained by aerobic metabolism during a LW condition.

Stroke mortality variations in South-East Asia: empirical evidence from the field.

PubMed

Hoy, Damian G; Rao, Chalapati; Hoa, Nguyen Phuong; Suhardi, S; Lwin, Aye Moe Moe

2013-10-01

Stroke is a leading cause of death in Asia; however, many estimates of stroke mortality are based on epidemiological models rather than empirical data. Since 2005, initiatives have been undertaken in a number of Asian countries to strengthen and analyse vital registration data. This has increased the availability of empirical data on stroke mortality. The aim of this paper is to present estimates of stroke mortality for Indonesia, Myanmar, Viet Nam, Thailand, and Malaysia, which have been derived using these empirical data. Age-specific stroke mortality rates were calculated in each of the five countries, and adjusted for data completeness or misclassification where feasible. All data were age-standardized and the resulting rates were compared with World Health Organization estimates, which are largely based on epidemiological models. Using empirical data, stroke ranked as the leading cause of death in all countries except Malaysia, where it ranked as the second leading cause. Age-standardized rates for males ranged from 94 per 100,000 in Thailand, to over 300 per 100,000 in Indonesia. In all countries, rates were higher for males than for females, and those compiled from empirical data were generally higher than modelled estimates published by World Health Organization. This study highlights the extent of stroke mortality in selected Asian countries, and provides important baseline information to investigate the aetiology of stroke in Asia and design appropriate public health strategies to address the rapidly growing burden from stroke. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.

Sick leave and its determinants in professional soldiers of the Slovenian Armed Forces.

PubMed

Selič, Polona; Petek, Davorina; Serec, Maša; Rus Makovec, Maja

2010-12-01

To assess whether demographic characteristics, self-rated health status, coping behaviors, satisfaction with important interpersonal relationships, financial situation, and current overall quality of life are determinants of sick leave duration in professional soldiers of the Slovenian Armed Forces. In 2008, 448 military personnel on active duty in the Slovenian Armed Forces were invited to participate in the study and 390 returned the completed questionnaires (response rate 87%). The questionnaires used were the self-rated health scale, sick leave scale, life satisfaction scale, Folkman-Lazarus' Ways of Coping Questionnaire, and a demographic data questionnaire. To partition the variance across a wide variety of indicators of participants' experiences, ordinal modeling procedures were used. A multivariate ordinal regression model, explaining 24% of sick leave variance, showed that the following variables significantly predicted longer sick leave duration: female sex (estimate, 1.185; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.579-1.791), poorer self-rated health (estimate, 3.243; 95% CI, 1.755-4.731), lower satisfaction with relationships with coworkers (estimate, 1.333; 95% CI, 0.399-2.267), and lower education (estimate, 1.577; 95% CI, 0.717-2.436). The impact of age and coping mechanisms was not significant. Longer sick leave duration was found in women and respondents less satisfied with their relationships with coworkers, and these are the groups to which special attention should be awarded when planning supervision, work procedures, and gender equality policy of the Armed Forces. A good way of increasing the quality of interpersonal relationships at work would be to teach such skills in teaching programs for commanding officers.

Syndromic surveillance for evaluating the occurrence of healthcare-associated infections in equine hospitals.

PubMed

Ruple-Czerniak, A A; Aceto, H W; Bender, J B; Paradis, M R; Shaw, S P; Van Metre, D C; Weese, J S; Wilson, D A; Wilson, J; Morley, P S

2014-07-01

Methods that can be used to estimate rates of healthcare-associated infections and other nosocomial events have not been well established for use in equine hospitals. Traditional laboratory-based surveillance is expensive and cannot be applied in all of these settings. To evaluate the use of a syndromic surveillance system for estimating rates of occurrence of healthcare-associated infections among hospitalised equine cases. Multicentre, prospective longitudinal study. This study included weaned equids (n = 297) that were admitted for gastrointestinal disorders at one of 5 participating veterinary referral hospitals during a 12-week period in 2006. A survey form was completed by the primary clinician to summarise basic case information, procedures and treatments the horse received, and whether one or more of 7 predefined nosocomial syndromes were recognised at any point during hospitalisation. Adjusted rates of nosocomial events were estimated using Poisson regression. Risk factors associated with the risk of developing a nosocomial event were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Among the study population, 95 nosocomial events were reported to have occurred in 65 horses. Controlling for differences among hospitals, 19.7% (95% confidence interval, 14.5-26.7) of the study population was reported to have had at least one nosocomial event recognised during hospitalisation. The most commonly reported nosocomial syndromes that were unrelated to the reason for hospitalisation were surgical site inflammation and i.v. catheter site inflammation. Syndromic surveillance systems can be standardised successfully for use across multiple hospitals without interfering with established organisational structures, in order to provide useful estimates of rates related to healthcare-associated infections. © 2013 EVJ Ltd.

The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models.

PubMed

Hu, Hao; Nigmatulina, Karima; Eckhoff, Philip

2013-08-01

Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand and estimate contacts for simulation of disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one of two mechanisms is typically used to describe the relation between contact rate and population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence of population threshold and human mobility patterns, we formulated a spatial contact model to describe the appropriate form of transmission with initial growth at low density and saturation at higher density. We show that the two mechanisms are extreme cases that do not capture real population movement across all scales. Empirical data of human and wildlife diseases indicate that a nonlinear function may work better when looking at the full spectrum of densities. This estimation can be applied to large areas with population mixing in general activities. For crowds with unusually large densities (e.g., transportation terminals, stadiums, or mass gatherings), the lack of organized social contact structure deviates the physical contacts towards a special case of the spatial contact model - the dynamics of kinetic gas molecule collision. In this case, an ideal gas model with van der Waals correction fits well; existing movement observation data and the contact rate between individuals is estimated using kinetic theory. A complete picture of contact rate scaling with population density may help clarify the definition of transmission rates in heterogeneous, large-scale spatial systems. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Worry and perceived threat of proximal and distal undesirable outcomes.

PubMed

Bredemeier, Keith; Berenbaum, Howard; Spielberg, Jeffrey M

2012-04-01

Individuals who are prone to worry tend to overestimate the likelihoods and costs of future undesirable outcomes. However, it is unclear whether these relations vary as a function of the timeframe of the event in question. In the present study, 342 undergraduate students completed a self-report measure of worry and rated the perceived probabilities and costs of 40 undesirable outcomes. Specifically, each participant estimated the probability that each of these outcomes would occur within three different timeframes: the next month, the next year, and the next 10 years. We found that the strength of the association between worry and probability estimates was strongest for the most proximal timeframe. Probability estimates were more strongly associated with worry for participants with elevated cost estimates, and this interactive effect was strongest for the most distal timeframe. Implications of these findings for understanding the etiology and treatment of excessive worry are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating minimal important differences for several scales assessing function and quality of life in patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

PubMed

Hodgkins, Paul; Lloyd, Andrew; Erder, M Haim; Setyawan, Juliana; Weiss, Margaret D; Sasané, Rahul; Nafees, Beenish

2017-02-01

Defining minimal important difference (MID) is critical to interpreting patient-reported outcomes data and treatment efficacy in clinical trials. This study estimates the MID for the Weiss Functional Impairment Rating Scale-Parent Report (WFIRS-P) and the Child Health and Illness Profile-Parent Report (CHIP-CE-PRF76) among parents of young people with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in the UK. Parents of children (6-12 years; n=100) and adolescents (13-17 years; n=117) with ADHD completed a socio-demographic form, the CHIP-CE-PRF76, the WFIRS-P, and the Pediatric Quality of Life scale at baseline and 4 weeks later. At follow-up, a subset of parents completed anchor questions measuring change in the child/adolescent from baseline. MIDs were estimated using anchor-based and distribution-based methods, and separately for children and adolescents. The MID estimates for overall change in the WFIRS-P total score ranged from 11.31 (standard error of measurement) to 13.47 (anchor) for the total sample. The range of MID estimates for the CHIP-CE-PRF76 varied by domain: 6.80-7.41 (satisfaction), 6.18-7.34 (comfort), 5.60-6.72 (resilience), 6.06-7.57 (risk avoidance), and 4.00-5.63 (achievement) for the total sample. Overall, MID estimates for WFIRS-P MID and CHIP-CE-PRF76 were slightly higher for adolescents than for children. This study estimated MIDs for these instruments using several methods. The observed convergence of the MID estimates increases confidence in their reliability and could assist clinicians and decision makers in deriving meaningful interpretations of observed changes in the WFIRS-P and CHIP-CE in clinical trials and practice.

Assessment of immunization registry databases as supplemental sources of data to improve ascertainment of vaccination coverage estimates in the national immunization survey.

PubMed

Khare, Meena; Piccinino, Linda; Barker, Lawrence E; Linkins, Robert W

2006-08-01

To evaluate the use of immunization registry data to supplement missing or incomplete vaccination data reported by immunization providers (referred to as "providers" hereafter) in the National Immunization Survey. Cross-sectional, random-digit-dialing, telephone survey to measure vaccination coverage among children aged 19 to 35 months in the United States. Four sites with mature (with >67% of provider participation in the area) immunization registries. Of the 639 children with complete household interviews, interviewers had consent from the respondents for 569 (89.0%) children to contact their providers and for 556 (87.0%) children to contact both providers and registries. Percentages of children up-to-date for vaccines based on data from providers, registries, and both sources combined. According to provider-reported data, weighted estimates of coverage for the recommended childhood vaccine series 4:3:1:3 at the 4 sites were 65.6%, 78.8%, 81.6%, and 77.0%. According to registry data, these coverage rates were consistently lower: 31.7% (P<.05), 65.4%, 71.9%, and 61.8%, respectively. When all unique vaccine doses were combined from both sources, the pooled 4:3:1:3 coverage rates increased to 72.0%, 92.0%, 88.7%, and 80.2%, respectively. The quality and completeness of vaccination histories from the registries were inconsistent and varied by sites. Vaccination coverage estimates were the lowest when only registry-reported data were used and were the highest when provider- and registry-reported histories were combined. Although registries enrolled and matched more children, vaccination histories were missing, incomplete, and inconsistent. The quality and completeness of the registry data must be improved and must be comparable across all states before further consideration may be given to supplement or replace the provider-reported National Immunization Survey data.

Mammographers’ Perception of Women’s Breast Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Egger, Joseph R.; Cutter, Gary R.; Carney, Patricia A.; Taplin, Stephen H.; Barlow, William E.; Hendrick, R. Edward; D’Orsi, Carl J.; Fosse, Jessica S.; Abraham, Linn; Elmore, Joann G.

2011-01-01

Objective To understand mammographers’ perception of individual women’s breast cancer risk. Materials and Methods Radiologists interpreting screening mammography examinations completed a mailed survey consisting of questions pertaining to demographic and clinical practice characteristics, as well as 2 vignettes describing different risk profiles of women. Respondents were asked to estimate the probability of a breast cancer diagnosis in the next 5 years for each vignette. Vignette responses were plotted against mean recall rates in actual clinical practice. Results The survey was returned by 77% of eligible radiologists. Ninety-three percent of radiologists overestimated risk in the vignette involving a 70-year-old woman; 96% overestimated risk in the vignette involving a 41-year-old woman. Radiologists who more accurately estimated breast cancer risk were younger, worked full-time, were affiliated with an academic medical center, had fellowship training, had fewer than 10 years experience interpreting mammograms, and worked more than 40% of the time in breast imaging. However, only age was statistically significant. No association was found between radiologists’ risk estimate and their recall rate. Conclusion U.S. radiologists have a heightened perception of breast cancer risk. PMID:15951455

Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk Estimates in 16-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography

PubMed Central

Einstein, Andrew J.; Sanz, Javier; Dellegrottaglie, Santo; Milite, Margherita; Sirol, Marc; Henzlova, Milena; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

2008-01-01

Background Recent advances have led to a rapid increase in the number of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) studies performed. While several studies have reported effective dose (E), there is no data available on cancer risk for current CTCA protocols. Methods and Results E and organ doses were estimated, using scanner-derived parameters and Monte Carlo methods, for 50 patients having 16-slice CTCA performed for clinical indications. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were estimated with models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. E of a complete CTCA averaged 9.5 mSv, while that of a complete study, including calcium scoring when indicated, averaged 11.7 mSv. Calcium scoring increased E by 25%, while tube current modulation reduced it by 34% and was more effective at lower heart rates. Organ doses were highest to the lungs and female breast. LAR of cancer incidence from CTCA averaged approximately 1 in 1600, but varied widely between patients, being highest in younger women. For all patients, the greatest risk was from lung cancer. Conclusions CTCA is associated with non-negligible risk of malignancy. Doses can be reduced by careful attention to scanning protocol. PMID:18371595

Estimated dose rates to members of the public from external exposure to patients with 131I thyroid treatment

DOE PAGES

Dewji, S.; Bellamy, M.; Hertel, N.; ...

2015-03-25

The purpose of this study is to estimate dose rates that may result from exposure to patients who had been administered iodine-131 ( 131I) as part of medical therapy were calculated. These effective dose rate estimates were compared with simplified assumptions under United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 8.39, which does not consider body tissue attenuation nor time-dependent redistribution and excretion of the administered 131I. Methods: Dose rates were estimated for members of the public potentially exposed to external irradiation from patients recently treated with 131I. Tissue attenuation and iodine biokinetics were considered in the patient in a largermore » comprehensive effort to improve external dose rate estimates. The external dose rate estimates are based on Monte Carlo simulations using the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs (PIMAL), previously developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. PIMAL was employed to model the relative positions of the 131I patient and members of the public in three exposure scenarios: (1) traveling on a bus in a total of six seated or standing permutations, (2) two nursing home cases where a caregiver is seated at 30 cm from the patient’s bedside and a nursing home resident seated 250 cm away from the patient in an adjacent bed, and (3) two hotel cases where the patient and a guest are in adjacent rooms with beds on opposite sides of the common wall, with the patient and guest both in bed and either seated back-to-back or lying head to head. The biokinetic model predictions of the retention and distribution of 131I in the patient assumed a single voiding of urinary bladder contents that occurred during the trip at 2, 4, or 8 h after 131I administration for the public transportation cases, continuous first-order voiding for the nursing home cases, and regular periodic voiding at 4, 8, or 12 h after administration for the hotel room cases. Organ specific activities of 131I in the thyroid, bladder, and combined remaining tissues were calculated as a function of time after administration. Exposures to members of the public were considered for 131I patients with normal thyroid uptake (peak thyroid uptake of ~27% of administered 131I), differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC, 5% uptake), and hyperthyroidism (80% uptake). Results: The scenario with the patient seated behind the member of the public yielded the highest dose rate estimate of seated public transportation exposure cases. The dose rate to the adjacent room guest was highest for the exposure scenario in which the hotel guest and patient are seated by a factor of ~4 for the normal and differentiated thyroid cancer uptake cases and by a factor of ~3 for the hyperthyroid case. Conclusions: It was determined that for all modeled cases, the DTC case yielded the lowest external dose rates, whereas the hyperthyroid case yielded the highest dose rates. In estimating external dose to members of the public from patients with 131I therapy, consideration must be given to (patient- and case-specific) administered 131I activities and duration of exposure for a more complete estimate. The method implemented here included a detailed calculation model, which provides a means to determine dose rate estimates for a range of scenarios. Finally, the method was demonstrated for variations of three scenarios, showing how dose rates are expected to vary with uptake, voiding pattern, and patient location.« less

Estimated dose rates to members of the public from external exposure to patients with 131I thyroid treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dewji, S.; Bellamy, M.; Hertel, N.

The purpose of this study is to estimate dose rates that may result from exposure to patients who had been administered iodine-131 ( 131I) as part of medical therapy were calculated. These effective dose rate estimates were compared with simplified assumptions under United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 8.39, which does not consider body tissue attenuation nor time-dependent redistribution and excretion of the administered 131I. Methods: Dose rates were estimated for members of the public potentially exposed to external irradiation from patients recently treated with 131I. Tissue attenuation and iodine biokinetics were considered in the patient in a largermore » comprehensive effort to improve external dose rate estimates. The external dose rate estimates are based on Monte Carlo simulations using the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs (PIMAL), previously developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. PIMAL was employed to model the relative positions of the 131I patient and members of the public in three exposure scenarios: (1) traveling on a bus in a total of six seated or standing permutations, (2) two nursing home cases where a caregiver is seated at 30 cm from the patient’s bedside and a nursing home resident seated 250 cm away from the patient in an adjacent bed, and (3) two hotel cases where the patient and a guest are in adjacent rooms with beds on opposite sides of the common wall, with the patient and guest both in bed and either seated back-to-back or lying head to head. The biokinetic model predictions of the retention and distribution of 131I in the patient assumed a single voiding of urinary bladder contents that occurred during the trip at 2, 4, or 8 h after 131I administration for the public transportation cases, continuous first-order voiding for the nursing home cases, and regular periodic voiding at 4, 8, or 12 h after administration for the hotel room cases. Organ specific activities of 131I in the thyroid, bladder, and combined remaining tissues were calculated as a function of time after administration. Exposures to members of the public were considered for 131I patients with normal thyroid uptake (peak thyroid uptake of ~27% of administered 131I), differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC, 5% uptake), and hyperthyroidism (80% uptake). Results: The scenario with the patient seated behind the member of the public yielded the highest dose rate estimate of seated public transportation exposure cases. The dose rate to the adjacent room guest was highest for the exposure scenario in which the hotel guest and patient are seated by a factor of ~4 for the normal and differentiated thyroid cancer uptake cases and by a factor of ~3 for the hyperthyroid case. Conclusions: It was determined that for all modeled cases, the DTC case yielded the lowest external dose rates, whereas the hyperthyroid case yielded the highest dose rates. In estimating external dose to members of the public from patients with 131I therapy, consideration must be given to (patient- and case-specific) administered 131I activities and duration of exposure for a more complete estimate. The method implemented here included a detailed calculation model, which provides a means to determine dose rate estimates for a range of scenarios. Finally, the method was demonstrated for variations of three scenarios, showing how dose rates are expected to vary with uptake, voiding pattern, and patient location.« less

Analysing malaria drug trials on a per-individual or per-clone basis: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Jaki, Thomas; Parry, Alice; Winter, Katherine; Hastings, Ian

2013-07-30

There are a variety of methods used to estimate the effectiveness of antimalarial drugs in clinical trials, invariably on a per-person basis. A person, however, may have more than one malaria infection present at the time of treatment. We evaluate currently used methods for analysing malaria trials on a per-individual basis and introduce a novel method to estimate the cure rate on a per-infection (clone) basis. We used simulated and real data to highlight the differences of the various methods. We give special attention to classifying outcomes as cured, recrudescent (infections that never fully cleared) or ambiguous on the basis of genetic markers at three loci. To estimate cure rates on a per-clone basis, we used the genetic information within an individual before treatment to determine the number of clones present. We used the genetic information obtained at the time of treatment failure to classify clones as recrudescence or new infections. On the per-individual level, we find that the most accurate methods of classification label an individual as newly infected if all alleles are different at the beginning and at the time of failure and as a recrudescence if all or some alleles were the same. The most appropriate analysis method is survival analysis or alternatively for complete data/per-protocol analysis a proportion estimate that treats new infections as successes. We show that the analysis of drug effectiveness on a per-clone basis estimates the cure rate accurately and allows more detailed evaluation of the performance of the treatment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimates of lay views about reversal multiple intelligences for self and others: Sex and cross-cultural comparisons.

PubMed

Neto, Félix; da Conceição Pinto, Maria; Mullet, Etienne; Furnham, Adrian

2017-12-01

This study focuses on lay conceptions of intelligence. It examined sex and cross-cultural similarities and differences in estimated intelligences and beliefs about intelligence in two countries, Angola and East Timor, within the reversal theory framework. A total of 209 Angolan (109 women and 100 men) and 183 Timorese (89 women and 94 men) students were participated in this study. Participants completed a questionnaire in order to estimate their parents', partners' and own overall intelligence and the 8 reversal multiple intelligences (telic, paratelic, conformist, negativistic, autic mastery, autic sympathy, alloic mastery and alloic sympathy intelligence). Respondents also rated 6 questions about intelligence. Men rated their overall, conformist and autic mastery higher than women. Angolans rated their overall, telic, paratelic, conformist, negativistic, autic mastery, autic sympathy, alloic mastery and alloic sympathy intelligence higher than Timorese. In both countries, fathers have been perceived as more intelligent than mothers, and telic intelligence emerged as a significant predictor of overall intelligence. Principal component analysis of the 8 reversal multiple intelligences yielded one factor. Angolan participants revealed more IQ test experience than Timorese participants. Most of respondents in both countries did not believe in sex differences in intelligence. These findings are discussed by means of cross-cultural literature. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

The solar cycle variation of the rates of CMEs and related activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, David F.

1991-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of the physics of the corona and heliosphere. This paper presents results of a study of occurrence frequencies of CMEs and related activity tracers over more than a complete solar activity cycle. To properly estimate occurrence rates, observed CME rates must be corrected for instrument duty cycles, detection efficiencies away from the skyplane, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. These corrections are evaluated using CME data from 1976-1989 obtained with the Skylab, SMM and SOLWIND coronagraphs and the Helios-2 photometers. The major results are: (1) the occurrence rate of CMEs tends to track the activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the corrected rates from different instruments are reasonably consistent; and (3) over the long term, no one class of solar activity tracer is better correlated with CME rate than any other (with the possible exception of type II bursts).

Diurnal changes in net uptake rate of nitrate are associated with changes in estimated export of carbohydrates to roots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rideout, J. W.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1994-01-01

The rate of NO3- uptake by soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merrill) roots generally declines during the night in association with progressive depletion of the nonstructural carbohydrate pool in the shoot as well as the concentration of carbohydrates in roots. To determine if NO3- uptake rate changes in response to variations in translocation rate of carbohydrates from shoot to roots per se or to carbohydrate status of the roots, the night period was interrupted with a low light level from incandescent lamps to alter the diurnal pattern of NO3- uptake by roots and export of carbohydrate from shoots of nonnodulated soybean. Depletion of NO3- from replenished, complete nutrient solutions containing 1 mM NO3- was measured by ion chromatography and rates of NO3- uptake were calculated. Changes in export of carbohydrates from shoot to roots during intervals of the night period were calculated as the differences between rates of disappearance in contents of nonstructural carbohydrates and their estimated rates of utilization in shoot respiration and growth. A positive, significant correlation occurred between changes in calculated rates of carbohydrate export from shoots and NO3- uptake rates. Conversely, there was no significant correlation between concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates in roots and NO3- uptake rates. These results support the hypothesis that carbohydrate flux from shoot to roots has a direct role in regulation of nitrogen uptake by the whole plant.

Disparities in child mortality trends: what is the evidence from disadvantaged states in India? the case of Orissa and Madhya Pradesh.

PubMed

Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Dayal, Prarthna; Hodge, Andrew

2013-06-27

The Millennium Development Goals prompted renewed international efforts to reduce under-five mortality and measure national progress. However, scant evidence exists about the distribution of child mortality at low sub-national levels, which in diverse and decentralized countries like India are required to inform policy-making. This study estimates changes in child mortality across a range of markers of inequalities in Orissa and Madhya Pradesh, two of India's largest, poorest, and most disadvantaged states. Estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were computed using seven datasets from three available sources--sample registration system, summary birth histories in surveys, and complete birth histories. Inequalities were gauged by comparison of mortality rates within four sub-state populations defined by the following characteristics: rural-urban location, ethnicity, wealth, and district. Trend estimates suggest that progress has been made in mortality rates at the state levels. However, reduction rates have been modest, particularly for neonatal mortality. Different mortality rates are observed across all the equity markers, although there is a pattern of convergence between rural and urban areas, largely due to inadequate progress in urban settings. Inter-district disparities and differences between socioeconomic groups are also evident. Although child mortality rates continue to decline at the national level, our evidence shows that considerable disparities persist. While progress in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality rates in urban areas appears to be levelling off, policies targeting rural populations and scheduled caste and tribe groups appear to have achieved some success in reducing mortality differentials. The results of this study thus add weight to recent government initiatives targeting these groups. Equitable progress, particularly for neonatal mortality, requires continuing efforts to strengthen health systems and overcome barriers to identify and reach vulnerable groups.

Homicide of children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

PubMed

Outwater, Anne H; Mgaya, Edward; Campbell, Jacqueline C; Becker, Stan; Kinabo, Linna; Menick, Daniel Mbassa

2010-12-01

Although data are sparse, it has been estimated that the highest rates of homicide death amongst children are in Africa. Little information is available on ages 0-14 years. No known quantitative surveillance of early neonaticide (killed at less than one week) has been conducted previously in Africa. A Violent Death Survey following WHO/CDC Guidelines was completed in Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania (population 2.845 million) in 2005. Qualitative and quantitative data were gathered and analyzed. The overall age adjusted rate of discarded and killed children in DSM was 2.05 per 100,000. The rate of early neonaticide was 27.7 per 100,000 while the rate of homicide incidence for children older than one week was 0.54 per 100,000 The overall estimated homicide rate for Africa of children under age 15 was 4.53 per 100,000. The rate in DSM was closer to the estimated global rate of 1.7 per 100,000. The results in DSM show that broad age groupings such as "< 1 year", "0-4 years" and "0-14 years" may mask a high incidence of neonaticide and an otherwise low incidence of murdered children. The print media provided good in-depth coverage for a few cases but it is not known if the reported cases are representative. Eighty percent of homicides of children in DSM were neonaticides. Since it is believed that the forces behind neonaticide are fundamentally different than homicides of older children, it is suggested that data of future surveys be parsed to include neonates, until the phenomenon is more clearly understood and addressed. Further understanding of the mother and father of the deceased is needed. Continued surveillance data collection is important to expand the sample size.

Homicide of children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 2005

PubMed Central

Outwater, Anne; Mgaya, Edward; Campbell, Jacquelyn C.; Becker, Stan; Kinabo, Linna; Menick, Daniel Mbassa

2014-01-01

Background Although data are sparse, it has been estimated that the highest rates of homicide death amongst children are in Africa. Little information is available on ages 0 -< 15 years. No reliable quantitative surveillance analysis of neonaticide (killed at less than one week) has been done. Methods A Violent Death Survey following WHO/CDC Guidelines was completed in Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania (DSM) (population 2.845 million) in 2005. Qualitative and quantitative data were gathered and analyzed using mixed methods techniques. Results The overall age adjusted rate of discarded and killed children in DSM was 2.05. The rate of neonaticide was 27.7 per 100,000) while the rate of homicide incidence for children > one day was Discussion The overall estimated homicide rate for Africa of children under age 15 was 4.53 per 100,000, whereas. The estimated global rate is 1.7 per 100,000 closer to DSM‘s rate. The results in DSM show that broad age groupings such as ” <1 year” or “0–4 years” or “0 – <15 years” may mask a high incidence of neonaticide and an otherwise low incidence of murdered children. The print media provided good in-depth coverage for a few cases but it is not known if the reported cases are representative. Conclusion Eighty percent of homicides of children in DSM are neonaticides. Since it is believed that the forces behind neonaticide are fundamentally different than homicides of older children, it is suggested that data of future surveys be parsed to include neonates, until the phenomenon is more clearly understood and addressed. Further understanding of the mother and father of the deceased is needed. Continued surveillance data collection is important to expand the sample size. PMID:22066333

Acute effects of caffeine on several operant behaviors in rhesus monkeys.

PubMed

Buffalo, E A; Gillam, M P; Allen, R R; Paule, M G

1993-11-01

The acute effects of 1,3-trimethylxanthine (caffeine) were assessed using an operant test battery (OTB) of complex food-reinforced tasks that are thought to depend upon relatively specific brain functions, such as motivation to work for food (progressive ratio, PR), learning (incremental repeated acquisition, IRA), color and position discrimination (conditioned position responding, CPR), time estimation (temporal response differentiation, TRD), and short-term memory and attention (delayed matching-to-sample, DMTS). Endpoints included response rates (RR), accuracies (ACC), and percent task completed (PTC). Caffeine sulfate (0.175-20.0 mg/kg, IV), given 15 min pretesting, produced significant dose-dependent decreases in TRD percent task completed and accuracy at doses > or = 5.6 mg/kg. Caffeine produced no systematic effects on either DMTS or PR responding, but low doses tended to enhance performance in both IRA and CPR tasks. Thus, in monkeys, performance of an operant task designed to model time estimation is more sensitive to the disruptive effects of caffeine than is performance of the other tasks in the OTB.

Effect of the conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades on vaccination coverage in older Mexican people.

PubMed

Salinas-Rodríguez, Aarón; Manrique-Espinoza, Betty Soledad

2013-07-08

Immunization is one of the most effective ways of preventing illness, disability and death from infectious diseases for older people. However, worldwide immunization rates are still low, particularly for the most vulnerable groups within the elderly population. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of the Oportunidades -an incentive-based poverty alleviation program- on vaccination coverage for poor and rural older people in Mexico. Cross-sectional study, based on 2007 Oportunidades Evaluation Survey, conducted in low-income households from 741 rural communities (localities with <2,500 inhabitants) of 13 Mexican states. Vaccination coverage was defined according to three individual vaccines: tetanus, influenza and pneumococcal, and for complete vaccination schedule. Propensity score matching and linear probability model were used in order to estimate the Oportunidades effect. 12,146 older people were interviewed, and 7% presented cognitive impairment. Among remaining, 4,628 were matched. Low coverage rates were observed for the vaccines analyzed. For Oportunidades and non-Oportunidades populations were 46% and 41% for influenza, 52% and 45% for pneumococcal disease, and 79% and 71% for tetanus, respectively. Oportunidades effect was significant in increasing the proportion of older people vaccinated: for complete schedule 5.5% (CI95% 2.8-8.3), for influenza 6.9% (CI95% 3.8-9.6), for pneumococcal 7.2% (CI95% 4.3-10.2), and for tetanus 6.6% (CI95% 4.1-9.2). The results of this study extend the evidence on the effect that conditional transfer programs exert on health indicators. In particular, Oportunidades increased vaccination rates in the population of older people. There is a need to continue raising vaccination rates, however, particularly for the most vulnerable older people.

Effect of the conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades on vaccination coverage in older Mexican people

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Immunization is one of the most effective ways of preventing illness, disability and death from infectious diseases for older people. However, worldwide immunization rates are still low, particularly for the most vulnerable groups within the elderly population. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of the Oportunidades -an incentive-based poverty alleviation program- on vaccination coverage for poor and rural older people in Mexico. Methods Cross-sectional study, based on 2007 Oportunidades Evaluation Survey, conducted in low-income households from 741 rural communities (localities with <2,500 inhabitants) of 13 Mexican states. Vaccination coverage was defined according to three individual vaccines: tetanus, influenza and pneumococcal, and for complete vaccination schedule. Propensity score matching and linear probability model were used in order to estimate the Oportunidades effect. Results 12,146 older people were interviewed, and 7% presented cognitive impairment. Among remaining, 4,628 were matched. Low coverage rates were observed for the vaccines analyzed. For Oportunidades and non-Oportunidades populations were 46% and 41% for influenza, 52% and 45% for pneumococcal disease, and 79% and 71% for tetanus, respectively. Oportunidades effect was significant in increasing the proportion of older people vaccinated: for complete schedule 5.5% (CI95% 2.8-8.3), for influenza 6.9% (CI95% 3.8-9.6), for pneumococcal 7.2% (CI95% 4.3-10.2), and for tetanus 6.6% (CI95% 4.1-9.2). Conclusions The results of this study extend the evidence on the effect that conditional transfer programs exert on health indicators. In particular, Oportunidades increased vaccination rates in the population of older people. There is a need to continue raising vaccination rates, however, particularly for the most vulnerable older people. PMID:23835202

Chromosome translocations in T. scripta: the dose-rate effect and in vivo lymphocyte radiation response.

PubMed

Ulsh, B A; Whicker, F W; Congdon, J D; Bedford, J S; Hinton, T G

2001-01-01

Using a whole-chromosome FISH painting probe we previously developed for chromosome 1 of the yellow-bellied slider turtle (Trachemys scripta), we investigated the dose-rate effect for radiation-induced symmetrical translocations in T. scripta fibroblasts and lymphocytes. The dose rate below which no reduction in effect per unit dose is observed with further dose protraction was approximately 23 cGy h(-1). We estimated the whole-genome spontaneous background level of complete, apparently simple symmetrical translocations in T. scripta lymphocytes to be approximately 1.20 x 10(-3)/cell projected from aberrations occurring in chromosome 1. Similar spontaneous background levels reported for humans are some 6- to 25-fold higher, ranging from about 6 x 10(-3) to 3.4 x 10(-2) per cell. This relatively low background level for turtles would be a significant advantage for resolution of effects at low doses and dose rates. We also chronically irradiated turtles over a range of doses from 0-8 Gy delivered at approximately 5.5 cGy h(-1) and constructed a lymphocyte dose-response curve for complete, apparently simple symmetrical translocations suitable for use with animals chronically exposed to radiation in contaminated environments. The best-fitting calibration curve (not constrained through the zero dose estimate) was of the form Y(as) = c + aD + bD(2), where Y(as) was the number of apparently simple symmetrical translocations per cell, D was the dose (Gy), a = (0.0058 +/- 0.0009), b = (-0.00033 +/- 0.00011), and c = (0.0015 +/- 0.0013). With additional whole-chromosome probes to improve sensitivity, environmental biodosimetry using stable chromosome translocations could provide a practical and genetically relevant measurement end point for ecological risk assessments and biomonitoring programs.

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data: Methods and Software.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2016-06-01

Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega.

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2015-01-01

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald’s omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega. PMID:29795870

Cost-estimating for commercial digital printing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keif, Malcolm G.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study is to document current cost-estimating practices used in commercial digital printing. A research study was conducted to determine the use of cost-estimating in commercial digital printing companies. This study answers the questions: 1) What methods are currently being used to estimate digital printing? 2) What is the relationship between estimating and pricing digital printing? 3) To what extent, if at all, do digital printers use full-absorption, all-inclusive hourly rates for estimating? Three different digital printing models were identified: 1) Traditional print providers, who supplement their offset presswork with digital printing for short-run color and versioned commercial print; 2) "Low-touch" print providers, who leverage the power of the Internet to streamline business transactions with digital storefronts; 3) Marketing solutions providers, who see printing less as a discrete manufacturing process and more as a component of a complete marketing campaign. Each model approaches estimating differently. Understanding and predicting costs can be extremely beneficial. Establishing a reliable system to estimate those costs can be somewhat challenging though. Unquestionably, cost-estimating digital printing will increase in relevance in the years ahead, as margins tighten and cost knowledge becomes increasingly more critical.

Depressive, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorders at six years after occupational injuries.

PubMed

Chin, Wei-Shan; Shiao, Judith Shu-Chu; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Kuo, Chun-Ya; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Guo, Yue Leon

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence rates of depressive, anxiety and PTSDs, and the risk factors for psychological symptoms at 6 years after occupational injury. This longitudinal study followed workers who were occupationally injured in 2009. Psychological symptoms and return to work were assessed at 3 and 12 months after injury. Injured workers who had completed the initial questionnaire survey at 3 or 12 months after injury were recruited. A self-administered questionnaire was mailed to the participants. For workers with high Brief Symptom Rating Scale and Post-traumatic Symptom Checklist scores, an in-depth psychiatric evaluation was performed using the Mini-international Neuropsychiatric Interview. A total of 570 workers completed the questionnaire (response rate, 28.7%). Among them, 243 (42.6%) had high psychological symptom scores and were invited for a phone interview; 135 (55.6%) completed the interview. The estimated rates of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)/partial PTSD were 9.2 and 7.2%, respectively, and both these rates were higher at 6 years after injury than at 12 months after injury (2.0 and 5.1%). After adjustment for family and social factors, the risk factors for high psychological scores were length of hospitalization immediately after injury, affected physical appearance, repeated occupational injuries, unemployment, and number of quit jobs after the injury. At 6 years after occupational injury, the re-emergence of psychiatric disorders was observed. Relevant factors for poor psychological health were severity of injury and instability of work. Periodic monitoring of psychological and physical health and economic stability are warranted.

New non-randomised model to assess the prevalence of discriminating behaviour: a pilot study on mephedrone

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background An advantage of randomised response and non-randomised models investigating sensitive issues arises from the characteristic that individual answers about discriminating behaviour cannot be linked to the individuals. This study proposed a new fuzzy response model coined 'Single Sample Count' (SSC) to estimate prevalence of discriminating or embarrassing behaviour in epidemiologic studies. Methods The SSC was tested and compared to the established Forced Response (FR) model estimating Mephedrone use. Estimations from both SSC and FR were then corroborated with qualitative hair screening data. Volunteers (n = 318, mean age = 22.69 ± 5.87, 59.1% male) in a rural area in north Wales and a metropolitan area in England completed a questionnaire containing the SSC and FR in alternating order, and four questions canvassing opinions and beliefs regarding Mephedrone. Hair samples were screened for Mephedrone using a qualitative Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry method. Results The SSC algorithm improves upon the existing item count techniques by utilizing known population distributions and embeds the sensitive question among four unrelated innocuous questions with binomial distribution. Respondents are only asked to indicate how many without revealing which ones are true. The two probability models yielded similar estimates with the FR being between 2.6% - 15.0%; whereas the new SSC ranged between 0% - 10%. The six positive hair samples indicated that the prevalence rate in the sample was at least 4%. The close proximity of these estimates provides evidence to support the validity of the new SSC model. Using simulations, the recommended sample sizes as the function of the statistical power and expected prevalence rate were calculated. Conclusion The main advantages of the SSC over other indirect methods are: simple administration, completion and calculation, maximum use of the data and good face validity for all respondents. Owing to the key feature that respondents are not required to answer the sensitive question directly, coupled with the absence of forced response or obvious self-protective response strategy, the SSC has the potential to cut across self-protective barriers more effectively than other estimation models. This elegantly simple, quick and effective method can be successfully employed in public health research investigating compromising behaviours. PMID:21812979

Comparison of the EPIC Physical Activity Questionnaire with Combined Heart Rate and Movement Sensing in a Nationally Representative Sample of Older British Adults

PubMed Central

España-Romero, Vanesa; Golubic, Rajna; Martin, Kathryn R.; Hardy, Rebecca; Ekelund, Ulf; Kuh, Diana; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Cooper, Rachel; Brage, Soren

2014-01-01

Objectives To compare physical activity (PA) subcomponents from EPIC Physical Activity Questionnaire (EPAQ2) and combined heart rate and movement sensing in older adults. Methods Participants aged 60–64y from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development in Great Britain completed EPAQ2, which assesses self-report PA in 4 domains (leisure time, occupation, transportation and domestic life) during the past year and wore a combined sensor for 5 consecutive days. Estimates of PA energy expenditure (PAEE), sedentary behaviour, light (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) were obtained from EPAQ2 and combined sensing and compared. Complete data were available in 1689 participants (52% women). Results EPAQ2 estimates of PAEE and MVPA were higher than objective estimates and sedentary time and LPA estimates were lower [bias (95% limits of agreement) in men and women were 32.3 (−61.5 to 122.6) and 29.0 (−39.2 to 94.6) kJ/kg/day for PAEE; −4.6 (−10.6 to 1.3) and −6.0 (−10.9 to −1.0) h/day for sedentary time; −171.8 (−454.5 to 110.8) and −60.4 (−367.5 to 246.6) min/day for LPA; 91.1 (−159.5 to 341.8) and 55.4 (−117.2 to 228.0) min/day for MVPA]. There were significant positive correlations between all self-reported and objectively assessed PA subcomponents (rho  = 0.12 to 0.36); the strongest were observed for MVPA (rho = 0.30 men; rho = 0.36 women) and PAEE (rho = 0.26 men; rho = 0.25 women). Conclusion EPAQ2 produces higher estimates of PAEE and MVPA and lower estimates of sedentary and LPA than objective assessment. However, both methodologies rank individuals similarly, suggesting that EPAQ2 may be used in etiological studies in this population. PMID:24516543

Analyses and estimates of hydraulic conductivity from slug tests in alluvial aquifer underlying Air Force Plant 4 and Naval Air Station-Joint Reserve Base Carswell Field, Fort Worth, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houston, Natalie A.; Braun, Christopher L.

2004-01-01

This report describes the collection, analyses, and distribution of hydraulic-conductivity data obtained from slug tests completed in the alluvial aquifer underlying Air Force Plant 4 and Naval Air Station-Joint Reserve Base Carswell Field, Fort Worth, Texas, during October 2002 and August 2003 and summarizes previously available hydraulic-conductivity data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, completed 30 slug tests in October 2002 and August 2003 to obtain estimates of horizontal hydraulic conductivity to use as initial values in a ground-water-flow model for the site. The tests were done by placing a polyvinyl-chloride slug of known volume beneath the water level in selected wells, removing the slug, and measuring the resulting water-level recovery over time. The water levels were measured with a pressure transducer and recorded with a data logger. Hydraulic-conductivity values were estimated from an analytical relation between the instantaneous displacement of water in a well bore and the resulting rate of head change. Although nearly two-thirds of the tested wells recovered 90 percent of their slug-induced head change in less than 2 minutes, 90-percent recovery times ranged from 3 seconds to 35 minutes. The estimates of hydraulic conductivity range from 0.2 to 200 feet per day. Eighty-three percent of the estimates are between 1 and 100 feet per day.

Interrater reliability of the injury reporting of the injury surveillance system used in international athletics championships.

PubMed

Edouard, Pascal; Junge, Astrid; Kiss-Polauf, Marianna; Ramirez, Christophe; Sousa, Monica; Timpka, Toomas; Branco, Pedro

2018-03-01

The quality of epidemiological injury data depends on the reliability of reporting to an injury surveillance system. Ascertaining whether all physicians/physiotherapists report the same information for the same injury case is of major interest to determine data validity. The aim of this study was therefore to analyse the data collection reliability through the analysis of the interrater reliability. Cross-sectional survey. During the 2016 European Athletics Advanced Athletics Medicine Course in Amsterdam, all national medical teams were asked to complete seven virtual case reports on a standardised injury report form using the same definitions and classifications of injuries as the international athletics championships injury surveillance protocol. The completeness of data and the Fleiss' kappa coefficients for the inter-rater reliability were calculated for: sex, age, event, circumstance, location, type, assumed cause and estimated time-loss. Forty-one team physicians and physiotherapists of national medical teams participated in the study (response rate 89.1%). Data completeness was 96.9%. The Fleiss' kappa coefficients were: almost perfect for sex (k=1), injury location (k=0.991), event (k=0.953), circumstance (k=0.942), and age (k=0.870), moderate for type (k=0.507), fair for assumed cause (k=0.394), and poor for estimated time-loss (k=0.155). The injury surveillance system used during international athletics championships provided reliable data for "sex", "location", "event", "circumstance", and "age". More caution should be taken for "assumed cause" and "type", and even more for "estimated time-loss". This injury surveillance system displays satisfactory data quality (reliable data and high data completeness), and thus, can be recommended as tool to collect epidemiology information on injuries during international athletics championships. Copyright © 2018 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Outcomes Among Patients Who Achieve Complete or Near-Complete Responses After the Induction Phase of Bladder-Preserving Combined-Modality Therapy for Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of NRG Oncology/RTOG 9906 and 0233

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitin, Timur, E-mail: mitin@ohsu.edu; George, Asha; Zietman, Anthony L.

Purpose: To investigate the differences in outcomes among patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer on NRG Oncology Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocols 9906 and 0233 who achieved complete response and near-complete response after induction chemoradiation and then completed bladder-preserving therapy with chemoradiation therapy (chemo-RT) to full dose (60-64 Gy). Patients and Methods: A pooled analysis was performed on 119 eligible patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer enrolled on NRG Oncology Radiation Therapy Oncology Group trials 9906 and 0233, who were classified as having a complete (T0) or near-complete (Ta or Tis) response after induction chemo-RT and completed consolidation with a total RT dose ofmore » at least 60 Gy. Bladder recurrence, salvage cystectomy rates, and disease-specific survival were estimated by the cumulative incidence method and bladder-intact and overall survivals by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Among the 119 eligible patients, 101 (85%) achieved T0, and 18 (15%) achieved Ta or Tis after induction chemo-RT and proceeded to consolidation. After a median follow-up of 5.9 years, 36 of 101 T0 patients (36%) versus 5 of 18 Ta or Tis patients (28%) experienced bladder recurrence (P=.52). Thirteen patients among complete responders eventually required late salvage cystectomy for tumor recurrence, compared with 1 patient among near-complete responders (P=.63). Disease-specific, bladder-intact, and overall survivals were not significantly different between T0 and Ta/Tis cases. Conclusions: The bladder recurrence and salvage cystectomy rates of the complete and the near-complete responders were similar. Therefore it is reasonable to recommend that patients with Ta or Tis after induction chemo-RT continue with bladder-sparing therapy with consolidation chemo-RT to full dose (60-64 Gy).« less

[Demography of Mexico City. The same problems with less population].

PubMed

Camposortega Cruz, S

1991-01-01

The Mexico City metropolitan area currently extends over 4451.2 sq km, completely covering the Federal District and 27 municipios in the state of Mexico. The current population of the Mexico City metropolitan area is estimated at about 16.1 million and its growth rate at approximately 2%/year. The crude birth rate is 24/1000 and the crude death rate 6/1000. The metropolitan Mexico City population represents 18.6% of the total Mexican population. Mexico's other large cities fall far behind in total population, Guadalajara with 3.16 million, Monterrey with 2.77 million, and Puebla with 1.5 million. Mexico City is 1 of the 5 largest cities of the world. Estimates of the current Mexico City population differ substantially from projections completed in the 1980s, which calculated populations of 19-22 million. The explanation of the difference lies primarily in overestimation of the metropolitan population in the 1980 census, the basis for the projections. Preliminary data from the 1990 census, data from the 1987 National Fertility and Health Survey, vital statistics, and some data on internal migration allow a preliminary correction of calculations relating to Mexico's population dynamics. During the 20th century, Mexico City's population has grown from 345,000 in 1900 to 1,029,000 in 1930, 3,136,000 in 1950, 9,045,000 in 1970, and 15,785,000 in 1990. The most rapid growth occurred in 1930-70, when the population grew by more than 5% annually. The growth rate declined to 3.65% between 1970-80 and according to preliminary estimated to 1.92% in 1980-90. Factors explaining the declining growth rate may include the fertility decline in Mexico City, reorientation of migration away from Mexico City and toward inntermediate cities with under 1 million inhabitants, and departures from Mexico City caused by the 1985 earthquakes, private and public decentralization policies, pollution, and other factos which have reduced the attractiveness of the capital. The reevised calculations suggest that Mexico City's population will not reach 20 million until early in the 21st century. Although demographic pressure on Mexico City is thus reduced, it is by no means eliminated, given that current needs are only partially being met. It is estimated for example that Mexico City requires 6.3 million jobs, but only 6.1 million are available, of which 1.1 million pay less than the minimum wage.

Directed Shotgun Proteomics Guided by Saturated RNA-seq Identifies a Complete Expressed Prokaryotic Proteome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omasits, U.; Quebatte, Maxime; Stekhoven, Daniel J.

2013-11-01

Prokaryotes, due to their moderate complexity, are particularly amenable to the comprehensive identification of the protein repertoire expressed under different conditions. We applied a generic strategy to identify a complete expressed prokaryotic proteome, which is based on the analysis of RNA and proteins extracted from matched samples. Saturated transcriptome profiling by RNA-seq provided an endpoint estimate of the protein-coding genes expressed under two conditions which mimic the interaction of Bartonella henselae with its mammalian host. Directed shotgun proteomics experiments were carried out on four subcellular fractions. By specifically targeting proteins which are short, basic, low abundant, and membrane localized, wemore » could eliminate their initial underrepresentation compared to the estimated endpoint. A total of 1250 proteins were identified with an estimated false discovery rate below 1%. This represents 85% of all distinct annotated proteins and ~90% of the expressed protein-coding genes. Genes that were detected at the transcript but not protein level, were found to be highly enriched in several genomic islands. Furthermore, genes that lacked an ortholog and a functional annotation were not detected at the protein level; these may represent examples of overprediction in genome annotations. A dramatic membrane proteome reorganization was observed, including differential regulation of autotransporters, adhesins, and hemin binding proteins. Particularly noteworthy was the complete membrane proteome coverage, which included expression of all members of the VirB/D4 type IV secretion system, a key virulence factor.« less

Directed shotgun proteomics guided by saturated RNA-seq identifies a complete expressed prokaryotic proteome

PubMed Central

Omasits, Ulrich; Quebatte, Maxime; Stekhoven, Daniel J.; Fortes, Claudia; Roschitzki, Bernd; Robinson, Mark D.; Dehio, Christoph; Ahrens, Christian H.

2013-01-01

Prokaryotes, due to their moderate complexity, are particularly amenable to the comprehensive identification of the protein repertoire expressed under different conditions. We applied a generic strategy to identify a complete expressed prokaryotic proteome, which is based on the analysis of RNA and proteins extracted from matched samples. Saturated transcriptome profiling by RNA-seq provided an endpoint estimate of the protein-coding genes expressed under two conditions which mimic the interaction of Bartonella henselae with its mammalian host. Directed shotgun proteomics experiments were carried out on four subcellular fractions. By specifically targeting proteins which are short, basic, low abundant, and membrane localized, we could eliminate their initial underrepresentation compared to the estimated endpoint. A total of 1250 proteins were identified with an estimated false discovery rate below 1%. This represents 85% of all distinct annotated proteins and ∼90% of the expressed protein-coding genes. Genes that were detected at the transcript but not protein level, were found to be highly enriched in several genomic islands. Furthermore, genes that lacked an ortholog and a functional annotation were not detected at the protein level; these may represent examples of overprediction in genome annotations. A dramatic membrane proteome reorganization was observed, including differential regulation of autotransporters, adhesins, and hemin binding proteins. Particularly noteworthy was the complete membrane proteome coverage, which included expression of all members of the VirB/D4 type IV secretion system, a key virulence factor. PMID:23878158

Incidental catch of marine birds in the north pacific high seas driftnet fisheries in 1990

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Gould, P.J.

1993-01-01

The incidental take of marine birds was estimated for the following North Pacific driftnet fisheries in 1990: Japanese squid, Japanese large-mesh, Korean squid, and Taiwanese squid and large-mesh combined. The take was estimated by assuming that the data represented a random sample from an unstratified population of all driftnet fisheries in the North Pacific. Estimates for 13 species or species groups are presented, along with some discussion of inadequacies of the design. About 416,000 marine birds were estimated to be taken incidentally during the 1990 season; 80% of these were in the Japanese squid fishery. Sooty Shearwaters, Short-tailed Shearwaters, and Laysan Albatrosses were the most common species in the bycatch.Regression models were also developed to explore the relations between bycatch rate of three groups--Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, and 'dark' shearwaters--and various explanatory variables, such as latitude, longitude, month, vessel, sea surface temperature, and net soak time (length of time nets were in the water). This was done for only the Japanese squid fishery, for which the most complete information was available. For modelling purposes, fishing operations for each vessel were grouped into 5-degree blocks of latitude and longitude.Results of model building indicated that vessel had a significant influence on bycatch rates of all three groups. This finding emphasizes the importance of the sample of vessels being representative of the entire fleet. In addition, bycatch rates of all three groups varied spatially and temporally. Bycatch rates for Laysan Albatrosses tended to decline during the fishing season, whereas those for Black-footed Albatrosses and dark shearwaters tended to increase as the season progressed. Bycatch rates were positively related to net soak time for Laysan Albatrosses and dark shearwaters. Bycatch rates of dark shearwaters were lower for higher sea surface temperatures.

Effect size and cost-effectiveness estimates of breast and cervical cancer screening reminders by population size through complete enumeration of Japanese local municipalities.

PubMed

Komoto, Shigekazu; Nishiwaki, Yuji; Okamura, Tomonori; Tanaka, Hideo; Takebayashi, Toru

2014-01-16

Client reminders are known to increase cancer screening attendance rates. However, there are significant costs associated with them, and their effect by population size is unknown. In 2007 and 2008, the Japanese Government surveyed breast and cervical cancer screening in every municipality in Japan. From the results, we selected all 1,464 municipalities that carried out both screening types. We examined whether changes in screening attendance rates between 2007 and 2008 were associated with client reminders, number of public health nurses per 100,000 population, financial strength index, and 2007 attendance rates for different population sizes. We then calculated cost-effectiveness estimates of client reminders by population size and screening type. Client reminders were associated with increased attendance rates in populations <100,000. For populations of 50,000-100,000, there was a 2.76% increase in breast cancer screening (95% CI: 0.41, 5.11), and a 2.25% increase in cervical cancer screening (95% CI: 0.89, 3.61). The incremental cost per additional attendance was higher in populations <50,000 than in populations of 50,000-100,000 (breast, $100 versus $54; cervical, $149 versus $67 respectively). Client reminders for breast and cervical cancer screening increased attendance rates in smaller municipalities in Japan.

A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, P.B.; Plummer, Niel; Böhlke, J.K.; Shapiro, S.D.; Hinkle, S.R.

2011-01-01

An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

Energy expenditure in rock/pop drumming.

PubMed

De La Rue, S E; Draper, S B; Potter, C R; Smith, M S

2013-10-01

Despite the vigorous nature of rock/pop drumming, there are no precise data on the energy expenditure of this activity. The aim of this study was to quantify the energy cost of rock/pop drumming. Fourteen male drummers (mean±SD; age 27±8 yrs.) completed an incremental drumming test to establish the relationship between energy expenditure and heart rate for this activity and a ramped cycle ergometer test to exhaustion as a criterion measure for peak values (oxygen uptake and heart rate). During live concert performance heart rate was continuously measured and used to estimate energy expenditure (from the energy expenditure vs. heart rate data derived from the drumming test). During concert performance, estimated energy expenditure (mean±SD) was 623±168 kcal.h⁻¹ (8.1±2.2 METs) during performances of 38.6±15.6 min, and drummers achieved a peak heart rate of 186±16 b.min⁻¹. During the drumming test participants attained 78.7±8.3% of the cycle ergometer peak oxygen uptake. Rock/pop drumming represents a relatively high-intensity form of physical activity and as such involves significant energy expenditure. Rock/pop drumming should be considered as a viable alternative to more traditional forms of physical activity. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Assessment of two different types of bias affecting the results of outcome-based evaluation in undergraduate medical education.

PubMed

Schiekirka, Sarah; Anders, Sven; Raupach, Tobias

2014-07-21

Estimating learning outcome from comparative student self-ratings is a reliable and valid method to identify specific strengths and shortcomings in undergraduate medical curricula. However, requiring students to complete two evaluation forms (i.e. one before and one after teaching) might adversely affect response rates. Alternatively, students could be asked to rate their initial performance level retrospectively. This approach might threaten the validity of results due to response shift or effort justification bias. Two consecutive cohorts of medical students enrolled in a six-week cardio-respiratory module were enrolled in this study. In both cohorts, performance gain was estimated for 33 specific learning objectives. In the first cohort, outcomes calculated from ratings provided before (pretest) and after (posttest) teaching were compared to outcomes derived from comparative self-ratings collected after teaching only (thentest and posttest). In the second cohort, only thentests and posttests were used to calculate outcomes, but data collection tools differed with regard to item presentation. In one group, thentest and posttest ratings were obtained sequentially on separate forms while in the other, both ratings were obtained simultaneously for each learning objective. Using thentest ratings to calculate performance gain produced slightly higher values than using true pretest ratings. Direct comparison of then- and posttest ratings also yielded slightly higher performance gain than sequential ratings, but this effect was negligibly small. Given the small effect sizes, using thentests appears to be equivalent to using true pretest ratings. Item presentation in the posttest does not significantly impact on results.

Assessment of two different types of bias affecting the results of outcome-based evaluation in undergraduate medical education

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Estimating learning outcome from comparative student self-ratings is a reliable and valid method to identify specific strengths and shortcomings in undergraduate medical curricula. However, requiring students to complete two evaluation forms (i.e. one before and one after teaching) might adversely affect response rates. Alternatively, students could be asked to rate their initial performance level retrospectively. This approach might threaten the validity of results due to response shift or effort justification bias. Methods Two consecutive cohorts of medical students enrolled in a six-week cardio-respiratory module were enrolled in this study. In both cohorts, performance gain was estimated for 33 specific learning objectives. In the first cohort, outcomes calculated from ratings provided before (pretest) and after (posttest) teaching were compared to outcomes derived from comparative self-ratings collected after teaching only (thentest and posttest). In the second cohort, only thentests and posttests were used to calculate outcomes, but data collection tools differed with regard to item presentation. In one group, thentest and posttest ratings were obtained sequentially on separate forms while in the other, both ratings were obtained simultaneously for each learning objective. Results Using thentest ratings to calculate performance gain produced slightly higher values than using true pretest ratings. Direct comparison of then- and posttest ratings also yielded slightly higher performance gain than sequential ratings, but this effect was negligibly small. Conclusions Given the small effect sizes, using thentests appears to be equivalent to using true pretest ratings. Item presentation in the posttest does not significantly impact on results. PMID:25043503

Validity of two wearable monitors to estimate breaks from sedentary time

PubMed Central

Lyden, Kate; Kozey-Keadle, Sarah L.; Staudenmayer, John W.; Freedson, Patty S.

2012-01-01

Investigations employing wearable monitors have begun to examine how sedentary time behaviors influence health. Purpose To demonstrate the utility of a measure of sedentary behavior and to validate the activPAL and ActiGraph GT3X for estimating measures of sedentary behavior: absolute number of breaks and break-rate. Methods Thirteen participants completed two, 10-hour conditions. During the baseline condition, participants performed normal daily activity and during the treatment condition, participants were asked to reduce and break-up their sedentary time. In each condition, participants wore two ActiGraph GT3X monitors and one activPAL. The ActiGraph was tested using the low frequency extension filter (AG-LFE) and the normal filter (AG-Norm). For both ActiGraph monitors two count cut-points to estimate sedentary time were examined: 100 and 150 counts∙min−1. Direct observation served as the criterion measure of total sedentary time, absolute number of breaks from sedentary time and break-rate (number of breaks per sedentary hour [brks.sed-hr−1]). Results Break-rate was the only metric sensitive to changes in behavior between baseline (5.1 [3.3 to 6.8] brks.sed-hr−1) and treatment conditions (7.3 [4.7 to 9.8] brks.sed-hr−1) (mean [95% CI]). The activPAL produced valid estimates of all sedentary behavior measures and was sensitive to changes in break-rate between conditions (baseline: 5.1 [2.8 to 7.1] brks.sed-hr−1, treatment: 8.0 [5.8 to 10.2] brks.sed-hr−1). In general, the AG-LFE and AG-Norm were not accurate in estimating break-rate or absolute number of breaks and were not sensitive to changes between conditions. Conclusion This study demonstrates the utility of expressing breaks from sedentary time as a rate per sedentary hour, a metric specifically relevant to free-living behavior, and provides further evidence that the activPAL is a valid tool to measure components of sedentary behavior in free-living environments. PMID:22648343

24 CFR Appendix C to Part 3500 - Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form C Appendix C to Part 3500 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating.... 3500, App. C Appendix C to Part 3500—Instructions for Completing Good Faith Estimate (GFE) Form The...

The public health benefits of reducing fine particulate matter through conversion to cleaner heating fuels in New York City.

PubMed

Kheirbek, Iyad; Haney, Jay; Douglas, Sharon; Ito, Kazuhiko; Caputo, Steven; Matte, Thomas

2014-12-02

In recent years, both New York State and City issued regulations to reduce emissions from burning heating oil. To assess the benefits of these programs in New York City, where the density of emissions and vulnerable populations vary greatly, we simulated the air quality benefits of scenarios reflecting no action, partial, and complete phase-out of high-sulfur heating fuels using the Community MultiScale Air Quality (CMAQ) model conducted at a high spatial resolution (1 km). We evaluated the premature mortality and morbidity benefits of the scenarios within 42 city neighborhoods and computed benefits by neighborhood poverty status. The complete phase-out scenario reduces annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by an estimated 0.71 μg/m(3) city-wide (average of 1 km estimates, 10-90th percentile: 0.1-1.6 μg/m(3)), avoiding an estimated 290 premature deaths, 180 hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and 550 emergency department visits for asthma each year. The largest improvements were seen in areas of highest building and population density and the majority of benefits have occurred through the partial phase out of high-sulfur heating fuel already achieved. While emissions reductions were greatest in low-poverty neighborhoods, health benefits are estimated to be greatest in high-poverty neighborhoods due to higher baseline morbidity and mortality rates.

Savings in acute care costs if all older adults treated for fall-related injuries completed matter of balance.

PubMed

Howland, Jonathan; Shankar, Kalpana Narayan; Peterson, Elizabeth W; Taylor, Alyssa A

Falls among older adults are a common and serious public health problem. Evidence-based fall prevention programs delivered in community settings and targeting older adults living independently are increasingly deployed throughout the nation. These programs tend to be offered by public and private organizations that serve older adults, and recruitment usually occurs through direct marketing to the target population, rather than through referrals from healthcare providers. Matter of Balance , a program developed to reduce fear of falling and associated activity restriction in community-dwelling older adults, is currently being delivered in 38 of the 50 United States. In this study, we estimate the one-year medical care cost savings if older adults treated at Massachusetts hospitals for fall-related injuries were referred by healthcare providers to participate in Matter of Balance . Data from several sources were used for this study. We estimated annual cost savings in older adult falls recidivism for a hypothetical 100 patients presenting at an emergency department for a fall-related injury, assuming that all were referred to, and 50 % completed, Matter of Balance . This cost-saving estimate was subsequently expanded based on the actual number (43,931) of older adult patients presenting at, and discharged from Massachusetts emergency departments for all fall-related injuries in 2012. Cost savings were calculated for two additional participation rates: 25 % and 75 %. The return on investment (ROI), was calculated based on the percentage of return per each dollar invested. The calculated ROI for Matter of Balance was 144 %. Statewide savings ranged from $2.79 million assuming a 25 % participation rate to $8.37 million, assuming a 75 % participation rate. Referral to evidence-based falls prevention programs of older adult patients presenting at EDs with a fall-related injury could reduce subsequent falls and associated treatment costs.

A Method for Calculating Transient Surface Temperatures and Surface Heating Rates for High-Speed Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quinn, Robert D.; Gong, Leslie

2000-01-01

This report describes a method that can calculate transient aerodynamic heating and transient surface temperatures at supersonic and hypersonic speeds. This method can rapidly calculate temperature and heating rate time-histories for complete flight trajectories. Semi-empirical theories are used to calculate laminar and turbulent heat transfer coefficients and a procedure for estimating boundary-layer transition is included. Results from this method are compared with flight data from the X-15 research vehicle, YF-12 airplane, and the Space Shuttle Orbiter. These comparisons show that the calculated values are in good agreement with the measured flight data.

Estimating a mosquito repellent's potential to reduce malaria in communities.

PubMed

Kiszewski, A E; Darling, S T

2010-12-01

Probability models for assessing a mosquito repellent's potential to reduce malaria transmission are not readily available to public health researchers. To provide a means for estimating the epidemiological efficacy of mosquito repellents in communities, we developed a simple mathematical model. A static probability model is presented to simulate malaria infection in a community during a single transmission season. The model includes five parameters- sporozoite rate, human infection rate, biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product-acceptance rate. The model assumes that a certain percentage of the population uses a personal mosquito repellent over the course of a seven-month transmission season and that this repellent maintains a constant rate of protective efficacy against the bites of malaria vectors. This model measures the probability of evading infection in circumstances where vector biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product acceptance may vary. [corrected] Absolute protection using mosquito repellents alone requires high rates of repellent efficacy and product acceptance. [corrected] Using performance data from a highly effective repellent, the model estimates an 88.9% reduction of infections over a seven- month transmission season. A corresponding reduction in the incidence of super-infection in community members not completely evading infection can also be presumed. Thus, the model shows that mass distribution of a repellent with >98% efficacy and >98% product acceptance would suppress new malaria infections to levels lower than those achieved with insecticide treated nets (ITNs). A combination of both interventions could create synergies that result in reductions of disease burden significantly greater than with the use of ITNs alone.

Survival and recovery rates of mottled ducks banded in Texas and Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haukos, David A.

2015-01-01

The Western Gulf Coast population of the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) is dependent on the Gulf coastal marsh to complete its entire life cycle. Band recovery data can be used to monitor mottled duck populations by estimating annual survival, indexing harvest rate, and assessing movements. Band returns from hunting seasons 1997–2013 were used to evaluate factors influencing annual survival, recovery rates, and movements of mottled ducks in Texas and Louisiana. For banding years of 1997–2013, 58,349 normal, wild mottled ducks were banded and released in Texas and Louisiana. Since 2002, 86% of mottled duck bandings have occurred on the Chenier Plain of Texas and Louisiana. Hunters shot, recovered, and reported 7,061birds with bands during this period. Direct recovery rates were greater for juveniles than adults but changed little since the 1970s. Estimates of annual survival did not differ between Texas and Louisiana, but did among years and between sex and age classes. Adult male and juvenile female mottled ducks had the greatest and lowest annual survival rates, respectively. Recovery of birds banded on the Chenier Plain was four times greater for birds banded in Texas and harvested in Louisiana than banded in Louisiana and harvested in Texas. Much of the current inference of results from banding mottled ducks is limited to the Chenier Plain. To monitor the entire Western Gulf Coast population of mottled ducks, managers can consider expanding operational banding operations with annual quotas, which would improve survival and recovery estimates and allow for inference beyond the Chenier Plain region.

Sub-sampling genetic data to estimate black bear population size: A case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredick, C.A.; Vaughan, M.R.; Stauffer, D.F.; Simek, S.L.; Eason, T.

2007-01-01

Costs for genetic analysis of hair samples collected for individual identification of bears average approximately US$50 [2004] per sample. This can easily exceed budgetary allowances for large-scale studies or studies of high-density bear populations. We used 2 genetic datasets from 2 areas in the southeastern United States to explore how reducing costs of analysis by sub-sampling affected precision and accuracy of resulting population estimates. We used several sub-sampling scenarios to create subsets of the full datasets and compared summary statistics, population estimates, and precision of estimates generated from these subsets to estimates generated from the complete datasets. Our results suggested that bias and precision of estimates improved as the proportion of total samples used increased, and heterogeneity models (e.g., Mh[CHAO]) were more robust to reduced sample sizes than other models (e.g., behavior models). We recommend that only high-quality samples (>5 hair follicles) be used when budgets are constrained, and efforts should be made to maximize capture and recapture rates in the field.

Estimation of Free-Living Energy Expenditure by Heart Rate and Movement Sensing: A Doubly-Labelled Water Study.

PubMed

Brage, Søren; Westgate, Kate; Franks, Paul W; Stegle, Oliver; Wright, Antony; Ekelund, Ulf; Wareham, Nicholas J

2015-01-01

Accurate assessment of energy expenditure (EE) is important for the study of energy balance and metabolic disorders. Combined heart rate (HR) and acceleration (ACC) sensing may increase precision of physical activity EE (PAEE) which is the most variable component of total EE (TEE). To evaluate estimates of EE using ACC and HR data with or without individual calibration against doubly-labelled water (DLW) estimates of EE. 23 women and 23 men (22-55 yrs, 48-104 kg, 8-46%body fat) underwent 45-min resting EE (REE) measurement and completed a 20-min treadmill test, an 8-min step test, and a 3-min walk test for individual calibration. ACC and HR were monitored and TEE measured over 14 days using DLW. Diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT) was calculated from food-frequency questionnaire. PAEE (TEE ÷ REE ÷ DIT) and TEE were compared to estimates from ACC and HR using bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation statistics. Mean(SD) measured PAEE and TEE were 66(25) kJ·day(-1)·kg(-1), and 12(2.6) MJ·day(-1), respectively. Estimated PAEE from ACC was 54(15) kJ·day(-1)·kg(-1) (p<0.001), with RMSE 24 kJ·day(-1)·kg(-1) and correlation r = 0.52. PAEE estimated from HR and ACC+HR with treadmill calibration were 67(42) and 69(25) kJ·day(-1)·kg(-1) (bias non-significant), with RMSE 34 and 20 kJ·day(-1)·kg(-1) and correlations r = 0.58 and r = 0.67, respectively. Similar results were obtained with step-calibrated and walk-calibrated models, whereas non-calibrated models were less precise (RMSE: 37 and 24 kJ·day(-1)·kg(-1), r = 0.40 and r = 0.55). TEE models also had high validity, with biases <5%, and correlations r = 0.71 (ACC), r = 0.66-0.76 (HR), and r = 0.76-0.83 (ACC+HR). Both accelerometry and heart rate may be used to estimate EE in adult European men and women, with improved precision if combined and if heart rate is individually calibrated.

Enhancing target variance in personality impressions: highlighting the person in person perception.

PubMed

Paulhus, D L; Reynolds, S

1995-12-01

D. A. Kenny (1994) estimated the components of personality rating variance to be 15, 20, and 20% for target, rater, and relationship, respectively. To enhance trait variance and minimize rater variance, we designed a series of studies of personality perception in discussion groups (N = 79, 58, and 59). After completing a Big Five questionnaire, participants met 7 times in small groups. After Meetings 1 and 7, group members rated each other. By applying the Social Relations Model (D. A. Kenny and L. La Voie, 1984) to each Big Five dimension at each point in time, we were able to evaluate 6 rating effects as well as rating validity. Among the findings were that (a) target variance was the largest component (almost 30%), whereas rater variance was small (less than 11%); (b) rating validity improved significantly with acquaintance, although target variance did not; and (c) no reciprocity was found, but projection was significant for Agreeableness.

Post-licensure rapid immunization safety monitoring program (PRISM) data characterization.

PubMed

Baker, Meghan A; Nguyen, Michael; Cole, David V; Lee, Grace M; Lieu, Tracy A

2013-12-30

The Post-Licensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring (PRISM) program is the immunization safety monitoring component of FDA's Mini-Sentinel project, a program to actively monitor the safety of medical products using electronic health information. FDA sought to assess the surveillance capabilities of this large claims-based distributed database for vaccine safety surveillance by characterizing the underlying data. We characterized data available on vaccine exposures in PRISM, estimated how much additional data was gained by matching with select state and local immunization registries, and compared vaccination coverage estimates based on PRISM data with other available data sources. We generated rates of computerized codes representing potential health outcomes relevant to vaccine safety monitoring. Standardized algorithms including ICD-9 codes, number of codes required, exclusion criteria and location of the encounter were used to obtain the background rates. The majority of the vaccines routinely administered to infants, children, adolescents and adults were well captured by claims data. Immunization registry data in up to seven states comprised between 5% and 9% of data for all vaccine categories with the exception of 10% for hepatitis B and 3% and 4% for rotavirus and zoster respectively. Vaccination coverage estimates based on PRISM's computerized data were similar to but lower than coverage estimates from the National Immunization Survey and Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set. For the 25 health outcomes of interest studied, the rates of potential outcomes based on ICD-9 codes were generally higher than rates described in the literature, which are typically clinically confirmed cases. PRISM program's data on vaccine exposures and health outcomes appear complete enough to support robust safety monitoring. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sperm count as a surrogate endpoint for male fertility control.

PubMed

Benda, Norbert; Gerlinger, Christoph

2007-11-30

When assessing the effectiveness of a hormonal method of fertility control in men, the classical approach used for the assessment of hormonal contraceptives in women, by estimating the pregnancy rate or using a life-table analysis for the time to pregnancy, is difficult to apply in a clinical development program. The main reasons are the dissociation of the treated unit, i.e. the man, and the observed unit, i.e. his female partner, the high variability in the frequency of male intercourse, the logistical cost and ethical concerns related to the monitoring of the trial. A reasonable surrogate endpoint of the definite endpoint time to pregnancy is sperm count. In addition to the avoidance of the mentioned problems, trials that compare different treatments are possible with reasonable sample sizes, and study duration can be shorter. However, current products do not suppress sperm production to 100 per cent in all men and the sperm count is only observed with measurement error. Complete azoospermia might not be necessary in order to achieve an acceptable failure rate compared with other forms of male fertility control. Therefore, the use of sperm count as a surrogate endpoint must rely on the results of a previous trial in which both the definitive- and surrogate-endpoint results were assessed. The paper discusses different estimation functions of the mean pregnancy rate (corresponding to the cumulative hazard) that are based on the results of sperm count trial and a previous trial in which both sperm count and time to pregnancy were assessed, as well as the underlying assumptions. Sample size estimations are given for pregnancy rate estimation with a given precision.

Computing Rates of Small Molecule Diffusion Through Protein Channels Using Markovian Milestoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrams, Cameron

2014-03-01

Measuring diffusion rates of ligands plays a key role in understanding the kinetic processes inside proteins. For example, although many molecular simulation studies have reported free energy barriers to infer rates for CO diffusion in myoglobin (Mb), they typically do not include direct calculation of diffusion rates because of the long simulation times needed to infer these rates with statistical accuracy. We show in this talk how to apply Markovian milestoning along minimum free-energy pathways to calculate diffusion rates of CO inside Mb. In Markovian milestoning, one partitions a suitable reaction coordinate space into regions and performs restrained molecular dynamics in each region to accumulate kinetic statistics that, when assembled across regions, provides an estimate of the mean first-passage time between states. The mean escape time for CO directly from the so-called distal pocket (DP) through the histidine gate (HG) is estimated at about 24 ns, confirming the importance of this portal for CO. But Mb is known to contain several internal cavities, and cavity-to-cavity diffusion rates are also computed and used to build a complete kinetic network as a Markov state model. Within this framework, the effective mean time of escape to the solvent through HG increases to 30 ns. Our results suggest that carrier protein structure may have evolved under pressure to modulate dissolved gas release rates using a network of ligand-accessible cavities. Support: NIH R01GM100472.

Skin temperature and heart rate can be used to estimate physiological strain during exercise in the heat in a cohort of fit and unfit males.

PubMed

Cuddy, John S; Buller, Mark; Hailes, Walter S; Ruby, Brent C

2013-07-01

To evaluate the previously developed physiological strain index (PSI) model using heart rate and skin temperature to provide further insight into the detection and estimation of thermal and physiological heat strain indices. A secondary aim was to characterize individuals who excel in their performance in the heat. 56 male participants completed 2 walking trials (3.5 miles per hour, 5% grade) in controlled environments of 43.3 °C and 15.5 °C (40% humidity). Core and skin temperature, along with heart rate and PSI, were continually monitored during exercise. Participants completed a physical fitness test. The logistic regression model exhibited 4 false positives and 1 false negative at the 40% decision boundary. The "Not at Risk" group (N = 33) had higher body weight (84 ± 13 vs. 77 ± 10 kg, respectively) compared to the "At Risk" (N = 23) group, p < 0.05. The "Not at Risk" group had a faster 3-mile run time compared to the "At Risk" group (21:53 ± 3:13 vs. 25:16 ± 2:37, respectively), p < 0.05. During the Heat Trial, the "At Risk" group had a higher rating of perceived exertion at 60 and 90 minutes compared to the "Not at Risk" group (13.5 ± 2.8 vs. 11.5 ± 1.8 and 14.8 ± 3.2 vs. 12.2 ± 2.0 for "At Risk" vs. "Not at Risk" at 60 and 90 minutes, respectively), p < 0.05. The previously developed model relating heart rate and skin temperature to PSI is highly accurate at assessing heat risk status. Participants classified as "At Risk" had lower physical performance scores and different body weights compared to the "Not at Risk" group and perceived themselves as working harder during exercise in the heat. Reprint & Copyright © 2013 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Determining the minimal clinically important difference and responsiveness of the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI): further data.

PubMed

Basra, M K A; Salek, M S; Camilleri, L; Sturkey, R; Finlay, A Y

2015-01-01

To determine the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) and its responsiveness to change in inflammatory skin diseases. A longitudinal study: at stage 1, patients completed the DLQI and a disease severity global question; at stage 2, a global rating of change in quality of life (QoL; Global Rating of Change Questionnaire, GRCQ) was added and used as an anchor to measure the MCID of the DLQI. 192 patients completed stage 1 and 107 completed stage 2. The mean DLQI score at stage 1 was 9.8 and 7.4 at stage 2 with a mean change of 2.4 (p < 0.0001). 31 patients experienced a 'small change' in their QoL (±3 and ±2) on the GRCQ. The mean corresponding change in DLQI scores was 3.3, which is regarded as the approximate MCID. Previous estimates of the MCID of the DLQI have varied from 3 to 5. Although this study demonstrated a MCID of 3.3, we recommend that the MCID in inflammatory skin diseases should be 4. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Structured Matrix Completion with Applications to Genomic Data Integration.

PubMed

Cai, Tianxi; Cai, T Tony; Zhang, Anru

2016-01-01

Matrix completion has attracted significant recent attention in many fields including statistics, applied mathematics and electrical engineering. Current literature on matrix completion focuses primarily on independent sampling models under which the individual observed entries are sampled independently. Motivated by applications in genomic data integration, we propose a new framework of structured matrix completion (SMC) to treat structured missingness by design. Specifically, our proposed method aims at efficient matrix recovery when a subset of the rows and columns of an approximately low-rank matrix are observed. We provide theoretical justification for the proposed SMC method and derive lower bound for the estimation errors, which together establish the optimal rate of recovery over certain classes of approximately low-rank matrices. Simulation studies show that the method performs well in finite sample under a variety of configurations. The method is applied to integrate several ovarian cancer genomic studies with different extent of genomic measurements, which enables us to construct more accurate prediction rules for ovarian cancer survival.

Students' Accuracy of Measurement Estimation: Context, Units, and Logical Thinking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, M. Gail; Gardner, Grant E.; Taylor, Amy R.; Forrester, Jennifer H.; Andre, Thomas

2012-01-01

This study examined students' accuracy of measurement estimation for linear distances, different units of measure, task context, and the relationship between accuracy estimation and logical thinking. Middle school students completed a series of tasks that included estimating the length of various objects in different contexts and completed a test…

Reassessment of Occupational Health Among U.S. Air Force Remotely Piloted Aircraft (Drone) Operators

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-05

As a result, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) School of Aerospace Medicine was requested to conduct a field survey to assess for general areas of health...services; and reasons for increased prescription and over-the-counter medication usage ). The purpose of this study was to reevaluate for changes in...major commands within the continental United States completed the web-based survey , resulting in an estimated 40% response rate. Statistical analyses

Impact of Patient Reminders on Papanicolaou Test Completion for High-Risk Patients Identified by a Clinical Decision Support System.

PubMed

MacLaughlin, Kathy L; Kessler, Maya E; Komandur Elayavilli, Ravikumar; Hickey, Branden C; Scheitel, Marianne R; Wagholikar, Kavishwar B; Liu, Hongfang; Kremers, Walter K; Chaudhry, Rajeev

2018-05-01

A clinical decision support system (CDSS) for cervical cancer screening identifies patients due for routine cervical cancer screening. Yet, high-risk patients who require more frequent screening or earlier follow-up to address past abnormal results are not identified. We aimed to assess the effect of a complex CDSS, incorporating national guidelines for high-risk patient screening and abnormal result management, its implementation to identify patients overdue for testing, and the outcome of sending a targeted recommendation for follow-up. At three primary care clinics affiliated with an academic medical center, a reminder recommending an appointment for Papanicolaou (Pap) testing or Pap and human papillomavirus cotesting was sent to high-risk women aged 18 through 65 years (intervention group) identified by CDSS as overdue for testing. Historical control patients, who did not receive a reminder, were identified by CDSS 1 year before the date when reminders were sent to the intervention group. Test completion rates were compared between the intervention and control groups through a generalized estimating equation extension. Across the three sites, the average completion rate of recommended follow-up testing was significantly higher in the intervention group at 23.7% (61/257) than the completion rate at 3.3% (17/516) in the control group (p < 0.001). A CDSS with enhanced capabilities to identify high-risk women due for cervical cancer testing beyond routine screening intervals, with subsequent patient notification, has the potential to decrease cervical precancer and cancer by improving adherence to guideline-compliant follow-up and needed treatment.

What influences midwives in estimating labour pain?

PubMed

Williams, A C de C; Morris, J; Stevens, K; Gessler, S; Cella, M; Baxter, J

2013-01-01

Clinicians' estimates of patients' pain are frequently used as a basis for delivering care, and the characteristics of the clinician and of the patient influence this estimate. We studied pain estimation by midwives attending women in uncomplicated labour. Sixty-six practising midwives of varied age, ethnicity and professional experience were asked to complete a trait empathy measure and then to estimate the maximum pain and anxiety experienced by six women whose filmed labour contractions they viewed. Additionally, they rated similarity to the labouring women in ethnicity, and described their beliefs about pain expression according to ethnicity. Midwife estimates of pain and anxiety were highly correlated. Longer professional experience was associated with lower pain estimates, while more births to the midwife herself was associated with higher pain estimates. A multiple regression model identified number of births to the midwife herself, and two components of empathy (perspective taking and identification), to be important in predicting midwife pain estimates for women in labour. Midwives expressed clear beliefs about women's expression of pain during labour according to ethnicity, but these beliefs were not consistent across midwives, even between midwives of similar ethnicity. Midwives' personal characteristics can bias the estimation of pain in woman in labour and therefore influence treatment. © 2012 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Remission in systemic lupus erythematosus: durable remission is rare.

PubMed

Wilhelm, Theresa R; Magder, Laurence S; Petri, Michelle

2017-03-01

Remission is the ultimate goal in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). In this study, we applied four definitions of remission agreed on by an international collaboration (Definitions of Remission in SLE, DORIS) to a large clinical cohort to estimate rates and predictors of remission. We applied the DORIS definitions of Clinical Remission, Complete Remission (requiring negative serologies), Clinical Remission on treatment (ROT) and Complete ROT. 2307 patients entered the cohort from 1987 to 2014 and were seen at least quarterly. Patients not in remission at cohort entry were followed prospectively. We used the Kaplan-Meier approach to estimate the time to remission and the time from remission to relapse. Cox regression was used to identify baseline factors associated with time to remission, adjusting for baseline disease activity and baseline treatment. The median time to remission was 8.7, 11.0, 1.8 and 3.1 years for Clinical Remission, Complete Remission, Clinical ROT and Complete ROT, respectively. High baseline treatment was the major predictor of a longer time to remission, followed by high baseline activity. The median duration of remission for all definitions was 3 months. African-American ethnicity, baseline low C3 and baseline haematological activity were associated with longer time to remission for all definitions. Baseline anti-dsDNA and baseline low C4 were associated with longer time to Complete Remission and Complete ROT. Baseline low C4 was also negatively associated with Clinical Remission. Our results provide further insights into the frequency and duration of remission in SLE and call attention to the major role of baseline activity and baseline treatment in predicting remission. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Reported changes in sexual behaviour and human papillomavirus knowledge in Peruvian female sex workers following participation in a human papillomavirus vaccine trial.

PubMed

Brown, B; Blas, M M; Heidari, O; Carcamo, C; Halsey, N A

2013-07-01

Limited data exist on the effect of clinical trial participation on sexual behavioural change. Two hundred female sex workers working in Lima, Peru received human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in either the standard (0, 2, 6 months) or modified (0, 3, 6 months) schedule. Participants received comprehensive screening and treatment for sexually transmitted infections (STIs), counselling on safe sex practices, education about HPV and the HPV vaccine, contraceptives (oral and condoms) and family planning at each visit. We assessed vaccine completion rates, change in sexual practices, and changes in HPV knowledge before and after participation in the vaccine trial. There were high rates of vaccine completion, 91% overall. The estimated number of reported new and total clients over a 30-day period decreased significantly (P < 0.001). Knowledge about HPV and HPV-related disease increased among all participants. In addition, all participants listed at least one preventive strategy during the month 7 follow-up survey.

Safety and Efficacy of High-Dose Tamoxifen and Sulindac for Desmoid Tumor in Children: Results of a Children’s Oncology Group (COG) Phase II Study

PubMed Central

Skapek, Stephen X.; Anderson, James R.; Hill, D. Ashley; Henry, David; Spunt, Sheri L.; Meyer, William; Kao, Simon; Hoffer, Fredric A.; Grier, Holcombe E.; Hawkins, Douglas S.; Raney, R. Beverly

2015-01-01

Background Desmoid fibromatosis (desmoid tumor, DT) is a soft tissue neoplasm prone to recurrence despite complete surgical resection. Numerous small retrospective reports suggest that non-cytotoxic chemotherapy using tamoxifen and sulindac may be effective for DT. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of tamoxifen and sulindac in a prospective phase II study within the Children’s Oncology Group. Procedures Eligible patients were <19 years of age who had measurable DT that was recurrent or not amenable to surgery or radiation. The primary objective was to estimate progression-free survival (PFS). Patients received tamoxifen and sulindac daily for 12 months or until disease progression or intolerable toxicity occurred. Response was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging. Results Fifty-nine eligible patients were enrolled from 2004 to 2009; 78% were 10–18 years old. Twenty-two (38%) were previously untreated; 15 (41%) of the remaining 37 enrolling with recurrent DT had prior systemic chemotherapy and six (16%) had prior radiation. No life-threatening toxicity was reported. Twelve (40%) of 30 females developed ovarian cysts, which were asymptomatic in 11 cases. Ten patients completed therapy without disease progression or discontinuing treatment. Responses included four partial and one complete (5/59, 8%). The estimated 2-year PFS and survival rates were 36% (95% confidence interval: 0.23–0.48) and 96%, respectively. All three deaths were due to progressive DT. Conclusions Tamoxifen and sulindac caused few serious side effects in children with DT, although ovarian cysts were common. However, the combination showed relatively little activity as measured by response and PFS rates. PMID:23281268

Safety and efficacy of high-dose tamoxifen and sulindac for desmoid tumor in children: results of a Children's Oncology Group (COG) phase II study.

PubMed

Skapek, Stephen X; Anderson, James R; Hill, D Ashley; Henry, David; Spunt, Sheri L; Meyer, William; Kao, Simon; Hoffer, Fredric A; Grier, Holcombe E; Hawkins, Douglas S; Raney, R Beverly

2013-07-01

Desmoid fibromatosis (desmoid tumor, DT) is a soft tissue neoplasm prone to recurrence despite complete surgical resection. Numerous small retrospective reports suggest that non-cytotoxic chemotherapy using tamoxifen and sulindac may be effective for DT. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of tamoxifen and sulindac in a prospective phase II study within the Children's Oncology Group. Eligible patients were <19 years of age who had measurable DT that was recurrent or not amenable to surgery or radiation. The primary objective was to estimate progression-free survival (PFS). Patients received tamoxifen and sulindac daily for 12 months or until disease progression or intolerable toxicity occurred. Response was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging. Fifty-nine eligible patients were enrolled from 2004 to 2009; 78% were 10-18 years old. Twenty-two (38%) were previously untreated; 15 (41%) of the remaining 37 enrolling with recurrent DT had prior systemic chemotherapy and six (16%) had prior radiation. No life-threatening toxicity was reported. Twelve (40%) of 30 females developed ovarian cysts, which were asymptomatic in 11 cases. Ten patients completed therapy without disease progression or discontinuing treatment. Responses included four partial and one complete (5/59, 8%). The estimated 2-year PFS and survival rates were 36% (95% confidence interval: 0.23-0.48) and 96%, respectively. All three deaths were due to progressive DT. Tamoxifen and sulindac caused few serious side effects in children with DT, although ovarian cysts were common. However, the combination showed relatively little activity as measured by response and PFS rates. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Do family and neighbourhood matter in secondary school completion? A multilevel study of determinants and their interactions in a life-course perspective

PubMed Central

Myhr, Arnhild; Lillefjell, Monica; Espnes, Geir Arild; Halvorsen, Thomas

2017-01-01

Background Completion of secondary education is important for individuals’ future health and health behaviour. The fundamental purpose of this study is to investigate the variation and clustering of school completion in families and neighbourhoods. Secondly, we aim to examine the impact of individuals’ family structure and neighbourhood of residence and examine to what extent parental education level moderates these associations. Methods Longitudinal register data for 30% of the entire Norwegian population aged 21–27 years in 2010 (N = 107,003) was extracted from Statistic Norway´s event database. Three-level logistic regression models, which incorporated individual, family, and neighbourhood contextual factors, were applied to estimate the family and neighbourhood general contextual effects and detect possible educational differences in the impact of family structure and urban place of residence in school completion. Results Completion rates were significantly higher within families with higher education level (79% in tertiary educated families vs. 61% and 48% in secondary and primary educated families respectively) and were strongly correlated within families (ICC = 39.6) and neighbourhoods (ICC = 5.7). Several structural factors at the family level negatively associated with school completion (e.g., family disruption, large family size, and young maternal age) were more prevalent and displayed more negative impact among primary educated individuals. Urban residence was associated with school completion, but only among the tertiary educated. Conclusions Investment in the resources in the individuals’ immediate surroundings, including family and neighbourhood, may address a substantial portion of the social inequalities in the completion of upper secondary education. The high intra-familial correlation in school completion suggests that public health policies and future research should acknowledge family environments in order to improve secondary education completion rates among young people within lower educated families. PMID:28222115

[Problems of demographic data collecting in Arab countries of the Middle East].

PubMed

Chasteland, J C

1970-06-01

12 Middle Eastern Arab countries can be divided into 5 northern countries with demographic data from census or survey and 7 southern countries primarily in the Arabian peninsula (Bahrien excepted) with no data. Obstacles include lack of information on tribes, migrations, and even nomadic status, large areas with sparse population, low socioeconom ic and literacy levels, and cumbersome registration systems. The author computed the index of regularity of age and sex, age distribution by sex, and crude birth-, death, and infant mortality rates to estimate the validity of existing data in each country. These estimates showed that for birthrates registration was about 100% complete for Kuwait and Jordan, 80% for Libya, 60% for Syria, 40% for Iraq. For mortality the registration was so poor that it is only about 30%-40% complete, even in Kuwait and Libya. Data on infant mortality are also poor and have apparently worsened in the 1960s compared with the 1950s. Bias probably exists in birth place, marital status, education, and profession. The author suggested that in southern countries a census should proceed over several years in steps: 1) lists of towns and tribes, 2) simple head count, and 3) complete census. valid vital statistics are urgently needed for national economic planning.

Randomized clinical trials in orthodontics are rarely registered a priori and often published late or not at all.

PubMed

Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Antonoglou, Georgios N; Sándor, George K; Eliades, Theodore

2017-01-01

A priori registration of randomized clinical trials is crucial to the transparency and credibility of their findings. Aim of this study was to assess the frequency with which registered and completed randomized trials in orthodontics are published. We searched ClinicalTrials.gov and ISRCTN for registered randomized clinical trials in orthodontics that had been completed up to January 2017 and judged the publication status and date of registered trials using a systematic protocol. Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics, chi-square or Fisher exact tests, and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. From the 266 orthodontic trials registered up to January 2017, 80 trials had been completed and included in the present study. Among these 80 included trials, the majority (76%) were registered retrospectively, while only 33 (41%) were published at the time. The median time from completion to publication was 20.1 months (interquartile range: 9.1 to 31.6 months), while survival analysis indicated that less than 10% of the trials were published after 5 years from their completion. Finally, 22 (28%) of completed trials remain unpublished even after 5 years from their completion. Publication rates of registered randomized trials in orthodontics remained low, even 5 years after their completion date.

Randomized clinical trials in orthodontics are rarely registered a priori and often published late or not at all

PubMed Central

Antonoglou, Georgios N.; Sándor, George K.; Eliades, Theodore

2017-01-01

A priori registration of randomized clinical trials is crucial to the transparency and credibility of their findings. Aim of this study was to assess the frequency with which registered and completed randomized trials in orthodontics are published. We searched ClinicalTrials.gov and ISRCTN for registered randomized clinical trials in orthodontics that had been completed up to January 2017 and judged the publication status and date of registered trials using a systematic protocol. Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics, chi-square or Fisher exact tests, and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. From the 266 orthodontic trials registered up to January 2017, 80 trials had been completed and included in the present study. Among these 80 included trials, the majority (76%) were registered retrospectively, while only 33 (41%) were published at the time. The median time from completion to publication was 20.1 months (interquartile range: 9.1 to 31.6 months), while survival analysis indicated that less than 10% of the trials were published after 5 years from their completion. Finally, 22 (28%) of completed trials remain unpublished even after 5 years from their completion. Publication rates of registered randomized trials in orthodontics remained low, even 5 years after their completion date. PMID:28777820

Meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of combined surgery in the management of eyes with coexisting cataract and open angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Jiang, Nan; Zhao, Gui-Qiu; Lin, Jing; Hu, Li-Ting; Che, Cheng-Ye; Wang, Qian; Xu, Qiang; Li, Cui; Zhang, Jie

2018-01-01

To conduct a systematic review and quantitative Meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of combined surgery for the eyes with coexisting cataract and open angle glaucoma. We performed a systematic search of the related literature in the Cochrane Library, PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science databases, CNKI, CBM and Wan Fang databases, with no limitations on language or publication date. The primary efficacy estimate was identified by weighted mean difference of the percentage of intraocular pressure reduction (IOPR%) from baseline to end-point, the percentage of number of glaucoma medications reduction from pre- to post-operation, and the secondary efficacy evaluations were performed by odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for complete and qualified success rate. Besides, ORs were applied to assess the tolerability of adverse incidents. Meta-analyses of fixed or random effect models were performed using RevMan software 5.2 to gather the consequences. Heterogeneity was evaluated by Chi 2 test and the I 2 measure. Ten studies enrolling 3108 patients were included. The combined consequences indicated that both glaucoma and combined cataract and glaucoma surgery significantly decreased IOP. For deep sclerectomy vs deep sclerectomy plus phacoemulsification and canaloplasty vs phaco-canaloplasty, the differences in IOPR% were not all statistically significant while trabeculotomy was detected to gain a quantitatively greater IOPR% compared with trabeculotomy plus phacoemulsification. Furthermore, there was no statistical significance in the complete and qualified success rate, and the rates of adverse incidents for trabeculotomy vs trabeculotomy plus phacoemulsification. Compared with trabeculotomy plus phacoemulsification, trabeculectomy alone is more effective in lowering IOP and the number of glaucoma medications, while the two surgeries can not demonstrate statistical differences in the complete success rate, qualified success rate, or incidence of adverse incidents.

Elderly poverty and Supplemental Security Income.

PubMed

Nicholas, Joyce; Wiseman, Michael

2009-01-01

In the United States, poverty is generally assessed on the basis of income, as reported in the Current Population Survey's (CPS's) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC), using an official poverty standard established in the 1960s. The prevalence of receipt of means-tested transfers is underreported in the CPS, with uncertain consequences for the measurement of poverty rates by both the official standard and by using alternative "relative" measures linked to the contemporaneous income distribution. The article reports results estimating the prevalence of poverty in 2002. We complete this effort by using a version of the 2003 CPS/ASEC for which a substantial majority (76 percent) of respondents have individual records matching administrative data from the Social Security Administration on earnings and receipt of income from the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs. Adjustment of the CPS income data with administrative data substantially improves coverage of SSI receipt. The consequence for general poverty is sensitive to the merge procedures employed, but under both sets of merge procedures considered, the estimated poverty rate among all elderly persons and among elderly SSI recipients is substantially less than rates estimated using the unadjusted CPS. The effect of the administrative adjustment is less significant for perception of relative poverty than for absolute poverty. We emphasize the effect of these adjustments on perception of poverty among the elderly in general and elderly SSI recipients in particular.

Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing.

PubMed

Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C; Chien, Tsair-Wei

2016-01-22

Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk.

The impact of healthcare spending on health outcomes: A meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Gallet, Craig A; Doucouliagos, Hristos

2017-04-01

While numerous studies assess the impact of healthcare spending on health outcomes, typically reporting multiple estimates of the elasticity of health outcomes (most often measured by a mortality rate or life expectancy) with respect to healthcare spending, the extent to which study attributes influence these elasticity estimates is unclear. Accordingly, we utilize a meta-data set (consisting of 65 studies completed over the 1969-2014 period) to examine these elasticity estimates using meta-regression analysis (MRA). Correcting for a number of issues, including publication selection bias, healthcare spending is found to have the greatest impact on the mortality rate compared to life expectancy. Indeed, conditional on several features of the literature, the spending elasticity for mortality is near -0.13, whereas it is near to +0.04 for life expectancy. MRA results reveal that the spending elasticity for the mortality rate is particularly sensitive to data aggregation, the specification of the health production function, and the nature of healthcare spending. The spending elasticity for life expectancy is particularly sensitive to the age at which life expectancy is measured, as well as the decision to control for the endogeneity of spending in the health production function. With such results in hand, we have a better understanding of how modeling choices influence results reported in this literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonresponse patterns in the Federal Waterfowl Hunter Questionnaire Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, G.W.

1992-01-01

I analyzed data from the 1984 and 1986 Federal Waterfowl Hunter Questionnaire Survey (WHQS) to estimate the rate of return of name and address contact cards, to evaluate the efficiency of the Survey's stratification scheme, and to investigate potential sources of bias due to nonresponse at the contact card and questionnaire stages of the Survey. Median response at the contact card stage was 0.200 in 1984 and 0.208 in 1986, but was lower than 0.100 for many sample post offices. Large portions of the intended sample contributed little to the final estimates in the Survey. Differences in response characteristics between post office size strata were detected, but size strata were confounded with contact card return rates; differences among geographic zones within states were more pronounced. Large biases in harvest and hunter activity due to nonresponse were not found; however, consistent smaller magnitude biases were found. Bias in estimates of the proportion of active hunters was the most pronounced effect of nonresponse. All of the sources of bias detected would produce overestimates of harvest and activity. Redesigning the WHQS, including use of a complete list of waterfowl hunters and resampling nonrespondents, would be needed to reduce nonresponse bias.

Groundwater recharge to a sedimentary aquifer in the topographically closed Uley South Basin, South Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordens, Carlos M.; Werner, Adrian D.; Post, Vincent E. A.; Hutson, John L.; Simmons, Craig T.; Irvine, Benjamin M.

2012-02-01

The chloride mass balance (CMB) and water-table fluctuation (WTF) analysis methods were used to estimate recharge rates in the Uley South Basin, South Australia. Groundwater hydrochemistry and isotope data were used to infer the nature of recharge pathways and evapotranspiration processes. These data indicate that some combination of two plausible processes is occurring: (1) complete evaporation of rainfall occurs, and the precipitated salts are washed down and redissolved when recharge occurs, and (2) transpiration dominates over evaporation. It is surmised that sinkholes predominantly serve to by-pass the shallow soil zone and redistribute infiltration into the deeper unsaturated zone, rather than transferring rainfall directly to the water table. Chlorofluorocarbon measurements were used in approximating recharge origins to account for coastal proximity effects in the CMB method and pumping seasonality was accounted for in the WTF-based recharge estimates. Best estimates of spatially and temporally averaged recharge rates for the basin are 52-63 and 47-129 mm/year from the CMB and WTF analyses, respectively. Adaptations of both the CMB and WTF analyses to account for nuances of the system were necessary, demonstrating the need for careful application of these methods.

Frequency Domain Analysis of Sensor Data for Event Classification in Real-Time Robot Assisted Deburring

PubMed Central

Pappachan, Bobby K; Caesarendra, Wahyu; Tjahjowidodo, Tegoeh; Wijaya, Tomi

2017-01-01

Process monitoring using indirect methods relies on the usage of sensors. Using sensors to acquire vital process related information also presents itself with the problem of big data management and analysis. Due to uncertainty in the frequency of events occurring, a higher sampling rate is often used in real-time monitoring applications to increase the chances of capturing and understanding all possible events related to the process. Advanced signal processing methods are used to further decipher meaningful information from the acquired data. In this research work, power spectrum density (PSD) of sensor data acquired at sampling rates between 40–51.2 kHz was calculated and the corelation between PSD and completed number of cycles/passes is presented. Here, the progress in number of cycles/passes is the event this research work intends to classify and the algorithm used to compute PSD is Welch’s estimate method. A comparison between Welch’s estimate method and statistical methods is also discussed. A clear co-relation was observed using Welch’s estimate to classify the number of cycles/passes. The paper also succeeds in classifying vibration signal generated by the spindle from the vibration signal acquired during finishing process. PMID:28556809

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Schnase, J.L.

2006-01-01

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jezek, Kenneth C.

2002-01-01

An important component of NASA's Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a mass balance investigation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The mass balance is calculated by taking the difference between the areally Integrated snow accumulation and the net ice discharge of the ice sheet. Uncertainties in this calculation Include the snow accumulation rate, which has traditionally been determined by interpolating data from ice core samples taken from isolated spots across the ice sheet. The sparse data associated with ice cores juxtaposed against the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by remote sensing , has motivated scientists to investigate relationships between accumulation rate and microwave observations as an option for obtaining spatially contiguous estimates. The objective of this PARCA continuation proposal was to complete an estimate of surface accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from C-band radar backscatter data compiled in the ERS-1 SAR mosaic of data acquired during, September-November, 1992. An empirical equation, based on elevation and latitude, is used to determine the mean annual temperature. We examine the influence of accumulation rate, and mean annual temperature on C-band radar backscatter using a forward model, which incorporates snow metamorphosis and radar backscatter components. Our model is run over a range of accumulation and temperature conditions. Based on the model results, we generate a look-up table, which uniquely maps the measured radar backscatter, and mean annual temperature to accumulation rate. Our results compare favorably with in situ accumulation rate measurements falling within our study area.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Arnold, Todd W; Schaub, Michael

2017-10-01

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Patterns of Recurrence After Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy: A Population-Based Study of 2223 Consecutive Low- and Intermediate-Risk Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo, Andrea C.; Morris, W. James, E-mail: JMorris@bccancer.bc.ca; Pickles, Tom

Objectives: This study examined patterns of recurrence after low–dose-rate prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB), estimated local recurrence rate and compared that rate to the estimated local recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy (RP). Methods and Materials: A prospective database was maintained with clinical, dosimetric, and outcome data for all LDR-PB implantation procedures performed at our institution. From 1998 to 2008, 2223 patients with prostate cancer received LDR-PB without supplemental external beam radiation therapy. Patients who developed Phoenix-defined biochemical failure were reviewed for sites of relapse and investigations completed. Results: At a median follow-up of 5 years, 108 of 2223 patients (4.8%) developed biochemical relapse.more » In 1 additional patient, local relapse was found on transurethral prostate resection, but his prostate-specific antigen concentration was well short of triggering Phoenix-defined failure. Of the 109 patients with disease relapse, 18 of 2223 (0.8%) had a proven local recurrence, and 30 of 2223 (1.3%) had a proven distant recurrence. The remaining 61 of 2223 patients (2.7%) had unidentified sites of recurrence; of these, 57 patients (93%) had digital rectal examinations (DREs), 18 (30%) had post-treatment biopsies, 45 (74%) had bone scans, and 34 (56%) had computed tomography imaging of the abdomen and pelvis. If every biochemical failure were local, the local recurrence rate would be as high as 4.9%; however, by excluding those with proven distant failure and those with both a negative DRE and biopsy, we estimate that the local recurrence rate is 2.7% or less. Conclusions: In the context of limitations of the study design, our population-based analysis indicates that the local recurrence rate after LDR-PB is as low or lower than that after RP in our jurisdiction.« less

Height and Weight Estimation From Anthropometric Measurements Using Machine Learning Regressions

PubMed Central

Fernandes, Bruno J. T.; Roque, Alexandre

2018-01-01

Height and weight are measurements explored to tracking nutritional diseases, energy expenditure, clinical conditions, drug dosages, and infusion rates. Many patients are not ambulant or may be unable to communicate, and a sequence of these factors may not allow accurate estimation or measurements; in those cases, it can be estimated approximately by anthropometric means. Different groups have proposed different linear or non-linear equations which coefficients are obtained by using single or multiple linear regressions. In this paper, we present a complete study of the application of different learning models to estimate height and weight from anthropometric measurements: support vector regression, Gaussian process, and artificial neural networks. The predicted values are significantly more accurate than that obtained with conventional linear regressions. In all the cases, the predictions are non-sensitive to ethnicity, and to gender, if more than two anthropometric parameters are analyzed. The learning model analysis creates new opportunities for anthropometric applications in industry, textile technology, security, and health care. PMID:29651366

The applicability of ordinary least squares to consistently short distances between taxa in phylogenetic tree construction and the normal distribution test consequences.

PubMed

Roux, C Z

2009-05-01

Short phylogenetic distances between taxa occur, for example, in studies on ribosomal RNA-genes with slow substitution rates. For consistently short distances, it is proved that in the completely singular limit of the covariance matrix ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are minimum variance or best linear unbiased (BLU) estimates of phylogenetic tree branch lengths. Although OLS estimates are in this situation equal to generalized least squares (GLS) estimates, the GLS chi-square likelihood ratio test will be inapplicable as it is associated with zero degrees of freedom. Consequently, an OLS normal distribution test or an analogous bootstrap approach will provide optimal branch length tests of significance for consistently short phylogenetic distances. As the asymptotic covariances between branch lengths will be equal to zero, it follows that the product rule can be used in tree evaluation to calculate an approximate simultaneous confidence probability that all interior branches are positive.

Characterizing the Survey Strategy and Initial Orbit Determination Abilities of the NASA MCAT Telescope for Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environmental Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frith, James; Barker, Ed; Cowardin, Heather; Buckalew, Brent; Anz-Meado, Phillip; Lederer, Susan

2017-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) recently commissioned the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) on Ascension Island with the primary goal of obtaining population statistics of the geosynchronous (GEO) orbital debris environment. To help facilitate this, studies have been conducted using MCAT's known and projected capabilities to estimate the accuracy and timeliness in which it can survey the GEO environment. A simulated GEO debris population is created and sampled at various cadences and run through the Constrained Admissible Region Multi Hypotheses Filter (CAR-MHF). The orbits computed from the results are then compared to the simulated data to assess MCAT's ability to determine accurately the orbits of debris at various sample rates. Additionally, estimates of the rate at which MCAT will be able produce a complete GEO survey are presented using collected weather data and the proposed observation data collection cadence. The specific methods and results are presented here.

School Violent Crime and Academic Achievement in Chicago*

PubMed Central

Burdick-Will, Julia

2013-01-01

Educational outcomes vary dramatically across schools in the United States. Many under-performing schools, especially in Chicago, also deal with high levels of violent crime on school grounds. Exposure to this type of frequent violence may be an important factor shaping already disadvantaged students’ educational experiences. However, estimating the effect of school violence on learning is difficult due to potential selection bias and the confounding of other school-level problems. Using detailed crime data from the Chicago Police Department, complete administrative records from the Chicago Public Schools, and school climate surveys conducted by the Consortium on Chicago School Research (2002–10), this study exploits variation in violent crime rates within schools over time to estimate its effect on academic achievement. School and neighborhood fixed-effects models show that violent crime rates have a negative effect on test scores, but not on grades. This effect is more likely related to direct reductions in learning, through cognitive stress and classroom disruptions, than changes in perceived safety, general school climate, or discipline practices. PMID:24259755

Pain-related fear of (re-)injury in patients with low back pain: Estimation or measurement in manual therapy primary care practice? A pilot study.

PubMed

Oostendorp, Rob A B; Elvers, Hans; Mikolajewska, Emilia; Laekeman, Marjan; Roussel, Nathalie; van der Zanden, Olaf; Nijs, Jo; Samwel, Han

2017-11-06

Manual physical therapists (MPTs) working in primary care get limited information about patient's courses of (chronic) low back pain (LBP). Identification of kinesiophobia is mostly based on clinical perception. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the scores with which manual physical therapists in a primary care setting identify kinesiophobia in patients with low back pain, and the patients' self-reported measures of kinesiophobia. The cross-sectional study comprised 104 patients with LBP and 17 MPTs. Patients first independently completed the Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia (TSK-17). The therapists, blinded to the TSK-scores, rated their perception of a patient's kinesiophobia using the Visual Analogue Scale-Estimation (VAS-est) and the accuracy of their ratings using the Visual Analogue Scale-Accuracy (VAS-ac). Kendall's tau b was used to determine the level of correlation between scores on the TSK-17 and the VAS-est.

School Violent Crime and Academic Achievement in Chicago.

PubMed

Burdick-Will, Julia

2013-10-01

Educational outcomes vary dramatically across schools in the United States. Many under-performing schools, especially in Chicago, also deal with high levels of violent crime on school grounds. Exposure to this type of frequent violence may be an important factor shaping already disadvantaged students' educational experiences. However, estimating the effect of school violence on learning is difficult due to potential selection bias and the confounding of other school-level problems. Using detailed crime data from the Chicago Police Department, complete administrative records from the Chicago Public Schools, and school climate surveys conducted by the Consortium on Chicago School Research (2002-10), this study exploits variation in violent crime rates within schools over time to estimate its effect on academic achievement. School and neighborhood fixed-effects models show that violent crime rates have a negative effect on test scores, but not on grades. This effect is more likely related to direct reductions in learning, through cognitive stress and classroom disruptions, than changes in perceived safety, general school climate, or discipline practices.

Decomposition of persistent pharmaceuticals in wastewater by ionizing radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, Atsushi; Osawa, Misako; Taguchi, Mitsumasa

2012-09-01

Pharmaceuticals in wastewater were treated by the combined method of activated sludge and ionizing radiation in laboratory scale. Oseltamivir, aspirin, and ibuprofen at 5 μmol dm-3 in wastewater were decomposed by the activated sludge at reaction time for 4 h. Carbamazepine, ketoprofen, mefenamic acid, clofibric acid, and diclofenac were not biodegraded completely, but were eliminated by γ-ray irradiation at 2 kGy. The rate constants of the reactions of these pharmaceuticals with hydroxyl radicals were estimated by the competition reaction method to be 4.0-10×109 mol-1 dm3 s-1. Decompositions of the pharmaceuticals in wastewater by ionizing radiation were simulated by use of the rate constants and the amount of total organic carbon as parameters. Simulation curves of concentrations of these pharmaceuticals as a function of dose described the experimental data, and the required dose for the elimination of them in wastewater by ionizing radiation can be estimated by this simulation.

Decadal-scale rates of reef erosion following El Niño-related mass coral mortality.

PubMed

Roff, George; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Mumby, Peter J

2015-12-01

As the frequency and intensity of coral mortality events increase under climate change, understanding how declines in coral cover may affect the bioerosion of reef frameworks is of increasing importance. Here, we explore decadal-scale rates of bioerosion of the framework building coral Orbicella annularis by grazing parrotfish following the 1997/1998 El Niño-related mass mortality event at Long Cay, Belize. Using high-precision U-Th dating and CT scan analysis, we quantified in situ rates of external bioerosion over a 13-year period (1998-2011). Based upon the error-weighted average U-Th age of dead O. annularis skeletons, we estimate the average external bioerosion between 1998 and 2011 as 0.92 ± 0.55 cm depth. Empirical observations of herbivore foraging, and a nonlinear numerical response of parrotfish to an increase in food availability, were used to create a model of external bioerosion at Long Cay. Model estimates of external bioerosion were in close agreement with U-Th estimates (0.85 ± 0.09 cm). The model was then used to quantify how rates of external bioerosion changed across a gradient of coral mortality (i.e., from few corals experiencing mortality following coral bleaching to complete mortality). Our results indicate that external bioerosion is remarkably robust to declines in coral cover, with no significant relationship predicted between the rate of external bioerosion and the proportion of O. annularis that died in the 1998 bleaching event. The outcome was robust because the reduction in grazing intensity that follows coral mortality was compensated for by a positive numerical response of parrotfish to an increase in food availability. Our model estimates further indicate that for an O. annularis-dominated reef to maintain a positive state of reef accretion, a necessity for sustained ecosystem function, live cover of O. annularis must not drop below a ~5-10% threshold of cover. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2009 with trends since 1995: a systematic analysis.

PubMed

Cousens, Simon; Blencowe, Hannah; Stanton, Cynthia; Chou, Doris; Ahmed, Saifuddin; Steinhardt, Laura; Creanga, Andreea A; Tunçalp, Ozge; Balsara, Zohra Patel; Gupta, Shivam; Say, Lale; Lawn, Joy E

2011-04-16

Stillbirths do not count in routine worldwide data-collating systems or for the Millennium Development Goals. Two sets of national stillbirth estimates for 2000 produced similar worldwide totals of 3·2 million and 3·3 million, but rates differed substantially for some countries. We aimed to develop more reliable estimates and a time series from 1995 for 193 countries, by increasing input data, using recent data, and applying improved modelling approaches. For international comparison, stillbirth is defined as fetal death in the third trimester (≥1000 g birthweight or ≥28 completed weeks of gestation). Several sources of stillbirth data were identified and assessed against prespecified inclusion criteria: vital registration data; nationally representative surveys; and published studies identified through systematic literature searches, unpublished studies, and national data identified through a WHO country consultation process. For 2009, reported rates were used for 33 countries and model-based estimates for 160 countries. A regression model of log stillbirth rate was developed and used to predict national stillbirth rates from 1995 to 2009. Uncertainty ranges were obtained with a bootstrap approach. The final model included log(neonatal mortality rate) (cubic spline), log(low birthweight rate) (cubic spline), log(gross national income purchasing power parity) (cubic spline), region, type of data source, and definition of stillbirth. Vital registration data from 79 countries, 69 nationally representative surveys from 39 countries, and 113 studies from 42 countries met inclusion criteria. The estimated number of global stillbirths was 2·64 million (uncertainty range 2·14 million to 3·82 million) in 2009 compared with 3·03 million (uncertainty range 2·37 million to 4·19 million) in 1995. Worldwide stillbirth rate has declined by 14·5%, from 22·1 stillbirths per 1000 births in 1995 to 18·9 stillbirths per 1000 births in 2009. In 2009, 76·2% of stillbirths occurred in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. This study draws attention to the dearth of reliable data in regions where most stillbirths occur. The estimated trend in stillbirth rate reduction is slower than that for maternal mortality and lags behind the increasing progress in reducing deaths in children younger than 5 years. Improved data and improved use of data are crucial to ensure that stillbirths count in global and national policy. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth, Saving Newborn Lives/Save the Children, and the International Stillbirth Alliance. The Department of Reproductive Health and Research, WHO, through the UN Development Programme, UN Population Fund, WHO, and World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of urine urea nitrogen and protein intake adjusted by using the estimated urine creatinine excretion rate on the antiproteinuric effect of angiotensin II type I receptor blockers.

PubMed

Chin, Ho Jun; Kim, Dong Ki; Park, Jung Hwan; Shin, Sung Joon; Lee, Sang Ho; Choi, Bum Soon; Kim, Suhnggwon; Lim, Chun Soo

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the role of protein intake on proteinuria in chronic kidney disease (CKD), as it is presently not conclusive. This is a subanalysis of data from an open-label, case-controlled, randomized clinical trial on education about low-salt diets (NCT01552954). We estimated the urine excretion rate of parameters in a day, adjusted by using the equation for estimating urine creatinine excretion, and analyzed the effect of urine urea nitrogen (UUN), as well as estimating protein intake on the level of albuminuria in hypertensive patients with chronic kidney disease. Among 174 participants from whom complete 24-h urine specimens were collected, the estimates from the Tanaka equation resulted in the highest accuracy for the urinary excretion rate of creatinine, sodium, albumin, and UUN. Among 227 participants, the baseline value of estimated urine albumin excretion (eUalb) was positively correlated with the estimated UUN (eUUN) or protein intake according to eUUN (P = 0.012 and P = 0.038, respectively). We were able to calculate the ratios of eUalb and eUUN in 221 participants and grouped them according to the ratio of eUUN during 16-wk trial period. The proportion of patients that achieved a decrement of eUalb ≥25% during 16 wk with an angiotensin II type I receptor blocker (ARB) medication was 80% (24 of 30) in group 1, with eUUN ratio ≤-25%; 82.2% (111 of 135) in group 2, with eUUN ratio between -25% and 25%; and 66.1% (37 and 56) in group 3, with eUUN ratio ≥25% (P = 0.048). The probability of a decrease in albuminuria with ARB treatment was lower in patients with an increase of eUUN or protein intake during the 16 wk of ARB treatment, as observed in multiple logistic regression analysis as well. The estimated urine urea excretion rate showed a positive association with the level of albuminuria in hypertensive patients with chronic kidney disease. The increase of eUUN excretion ameliorated the antiproteinuric effect of ARB. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suicide in Nepal: a modified psychological autopsy investigation from randomly selected police cases between 2013 and 2015.

PubMed

Hagaman, Ashley K; Khadka, S; Lohani, S; Kohrt, B

2017-12-01

Yearly, 600,000 people complete suicide in low- and middle-income countries, accounting for 75% of the world's burden of suicide mortality. The highest regional rates are in South and East Asia. Nepal has one of the highest suicide rates in the world; however, few investigations exploring patterns surrounding both male and female suicides exist. This study used psychological autopsies to identify common factors, precipitating events, and warning signs in a diverse sample. Randomly sampled from 302 police case reports over 24 months, psychological autopsies were conducted for 39 completed suicide cases in one urban and one rural region of Nepal. In the total police sample (n = 302), 57.0% of deaths were male. Over 40% of deaths were 25 years or younger, including 65% of rural and 50.8% of female suicide deaths. We estimate the crude urban and rural suicide rates to be 16.1 and 22.8 per 100,000, respectively. Within our psychological autopsy sample, 38.5% met criteria for depression and only 23.1% informants believed that the deceased had thoughts of self-harm or suicide before death. Important warning signs include recent geographic migration, alcohol abuse, and family history of suicide. Suicide prevention strategies in Nepal should account for the lack of awareness about suicide risk among family members and early age of suicide completion, especially in rural and female populations. Given the low rates of ideation disclosure to friends and family, educating the general public about other signs of suicide may help prevention efforts in Nepal.

Italian cancer figures, report 2014: Prevalence and cure of cancer in Italy.

PubMed

2014-01-01

This Report intends to estimate the total number of people still alive in 2010 after cancer diagnosis in Italy, regardless of the time since diagnosis, and to project these estimates to 2015. This study is also aimed to estimate the number of already cured cancer patients, whose mortality rates have become undistinguishable from that of the general population of the same age and sex. The study took advantage of the information from the AIRTUM database, which included 29 Cancer Registries (covering 21 million people, 35% of the Italian population). A total of 1,624,533 cancer cases diagnosed between 1976 and 2009 contributed to the study. For each registry, the observed prevalence was calculated. Prevalence for lengths of time exceeding the maximum duration of the registration and of the complete prevalence were derived by applying an estimated correction factor, the completeness index. This index was estimated by means of statistical regression models using cancer incidence and survival data available in registries with 18 years of observation or more. For 50 types or combinations of neoplasms, complete prevalence was estimated at 1.1.2010 as an absolute number and as a proportion per 100,000 inhabitants by sex, age group, area of residence, and years since diagnosis. Projections of complete prevalence for 1.1.2015 were computed under the assumption of a linear trend of the complete prevalence observed until 2010. Validated mixture cure models were used to estimate: the cure fraction, that is the proportion of patients who, starting from the time of diagnosis, are expected to reach the same mortality rate of the general population; the conditional relative survival (CRS), that is the cumulative probability of surviving some additional years, given that patients already survived a certain number of years; the time to cure, that is the number of years necessary so that conditional survival in the following five years (5-year CRS) exceeds the conventional threshold of 95% (i.e., mortality rates in cancer patients become undistinguishable compared to those of the general population); the proportion of patients already cured, i.e., people alive since a number of years exceeding time to cure. As of 1.1.2010, it was estimated that 2,587,347 people were alive after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 4.4% of the Italian population. A relevant geographical heterogeneity emerged, with a prevalence above 5% in northern registries and below 4% in southern areas. Men were 45% of the total (1,154,289) and women 55% (1,433,058). In the population aged 75 years or more, the proportions of prevalent cases were 20% in males and 13% in females, 11% between 60 and 74 years of age in both sexes. Nearly 600,000 Italian women were alive after a breast cancer diagnosis (41% of all women with this neoplasm), followed by women with cancers of the colon rectum (12%), corpus uteri (7%), and thyroid (6%). In men, 26% of prevalent cases (295,624) were patients with prostate cancer, 16% with either bladder or colon rectum cancer. The projections for 1.1.2015 are of three million (3,036,741) people alive after a cancer diagnosis, 4.9% of the Italian population; with a 20% increase for males and 15% for females, compared to 2010. The cure fractions were heterogeneous according to cancer type and age. Estimates obtained as the sum of cure fractions for all cancer types showed that more than 60% of patients diagnosed below the age of 45 years will reach the same mortality rate of the general population. This proportion decreased with increasing age and it was <30% for cancer diagnosed after the age of 74 years. It was observed that 60% of all prevalent cases (1,543,531 people or 2.6% of overall Italian population) had been diagnosed >5 years earlier (long-term survivors). Time to cure (5-year CRS>95%) was reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. Mortality rates similar to the ones reported by the general population were reached after approximately 20 years for breast and prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Time to cure was reached by 27% (20% in men and 33% in women) of all people living after a cancer diagnosis, defined as already cured. The study showed a steady increase over time (nearly +3% per year) of prevalent cases in Italy. A quarter of Italian cancer patients alive in 2010 can be considered as already cured. The AIRTUM Report 2014 describes characteristics of cancer patients and former-patients for 50 cancer types or combinations by sex and age. This detailed information promotes the conduction of studies aimed at expanding the current knowledge on the quality of life of these patients during and after the active phase of treatments (prevalence according to health status), on the long-term effects of treatments (in particular for paediatric patients), on the cost profile of cancer patients, and on rare tumours. All these observations have a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and, most of all, patients' perspective.

Vaccination and all-cause child mortality from 1985 to 2011: global evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

McGovern, Mark E; Canning, David

2015-11-01

Based on models with calibrated parameters for infection, case fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy, basic childhood vaccinations have been estimated to be highly cost effective. We estimated the association of vaccination with mortality directly from survey data. Using 149 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, we determined the relationship between vaccination coverage and the probability of dying between birth and 5 years of age at the survey cluster level. Our data included approximately 1 million children in 68,490 clusters from 62 countries. We considered the childhood measles, bacillus Calmette-Guérin, diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus, polio, and maternal tetanus vaccinations. Using modified Poisson regression to estimate the relative risk of child mortality in each cluster, we also adjusted for selection bias that resulted from the vaccination status of dead children not being reported. Childhood vaccination, and in particular measles and tetanus vaccination, is associated with substantial reductions in childhood mortality. We estimated that children in clusters with complete vaccination coverage have a relative risk of mortality that is 0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.68, 0.77) times that of children in a cluster with no vaccinations. Although widely used, basic vaccines still have coverage rates well below 100% in many countries, and our results emphasize the effectiveness of increasing coverage rates in order to reduce child mortality. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in young Australian women is higher than previously estimated: independent estimates from a nationally representative mobile phone survey.

PubMed

Brotherton, Julia M L; Liu, Bette; Donovan, Basil; Kaldor, John M; Saville, Marion

2014-01-23

Accurate estimates of coverage are essential for estimating the population effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Australia has a purpose built National HPV Vaccination Program Register for monitoring coverage, however notification of doses administered to young women in the community during the national catch-up program (2007-2009) was not compulsory. In 2011, we undertook a population-based mobile phone survey of young women to independently estimate HPV vaccination coverage. Randomly generated mobile phone numbers were dialed to recruit women aged 22-30 (age eligible for HPV vaccination) to complete a computer assisted telephone interview. Consent was sought to validate self reported HPV vaccination status against the national register. Coverage rates were calculated based on self report and weighted to the age and state of residence structure of the Australian female population. These were compared with coverage estimates from the register using Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated resident populations as the denominator. Among the 1379 participants, the national estimate for self reported HPV vaccination coverage for doses 1/2/3, respectively, weighted for age and state of residence, was 64/59/53%. This compares with coverage of 55/45/32% and 49/40/28% based on register records, using 2007 and 2011 population data as the denominators respectively. Some significant differences in coverage between the states were identified. 20% (223) of women returned a consent form allowing validation of doses against the register and provider records: among these women 85.6% (538) of self reported doses were confirmed. We confirmed that coverage rates for young women vaccinated in the community (at age 18-26 years) are underestimated by the national register and that under-notification is greater for second and third doses. Using 2011 population estimates, rather than estimates contemporaneous with the program rollout, reduces register-based coverage estimates further because of large population increases due to immigration since the program. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comment: Characterization of Two Historic Smallpox Specimens from a Czech Museum.

PubMed

Porter, Ashleigh F; Duggan, Ana T; Poinar, Hendrik N; Holmes, Edward C

2017-09-28

The complete genome sequences of two strains of variola virus (VARV) sampled from human smallpox specimens present in the Czech National Museum, Prague, were recently determined, with one of the sequences estimated to date to the mid-19th century. Using molecular clock methods, the authors of this study go on to infer that the currently available strains of VARV share an older common ancestor, at around 1350 AD, than some recent estimates based on other archival human samples. Herein, we show that the two Czech strains exhibit anomalous branch lengths given their proposed age, and by assuming a constant rate of evolutionary change across the rest of the VARV phylogeny estimate that their true age in fact lies between 1918 and 1937. We therefore suggest that the age of the common ancestor of currently available VARV genomes most likely dates to late 16th and early 17th centuries and not ~1350 AD.

Evaluation of 16 measures of mental workload using a simulated flight task emphasizing mediational activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wierwille, W. W.; Rahimi, M.; Casali, J. G.

1985-01-01

As aircraft and other systems become more automated, a shift is occurring in human operator participation in these systems. This shift is away from manual control and toward activities that tap the higher mental functioning of human operators. Therefore, an experiment was performed in a moving-base flight simulator to assess mediational (cognitive) workload measurement. Specifically, 16 workload estimation techniques were evaluated as to their sensitivity and intrusion in a flight task emphasizing mediational behavior. Task loading, using navigation problems presented on a display, was treated as an independent variable, and workload-measure values were treated as dependent variables. Results indicate that two mediational task measures, two rating scale measures, time estimation, and two eye behavior measures were reliably sensitive to mediational loading. The time estimation measure did, however, intrude on mediational task performance. Several of the remaining measures were completely insensitive to mediational load.

Comment: Characterization of Two Historic Smallpox Specimens from a Czech Museum

PubMed Central

Porter, Ashleigh F.; Duggan, Ana T.

2017-01-01

The complete genome sequences of two strains of variola virus (VARV) sampled from human smallpox specimens present in the Czech National Museum, Prague, were recently determined, with one of the sequences estimated to date to the mid-19th century. Using molecular clock methods, the authors of this study go on to infer that the currently available strains of VARV share an older common ancestor, at around 1350 AD, than some recent estimates based on other archival human samples. Herein, we show that the two Czech strains exhibit anomalous branch lengths given their proposed age, and by assuming a constant rate of evolutionary change across the rest of the VARV phylogeny estimate that their true age in fact lies between 1918 and 1937. We therefore suggest that the age of the common ancestor of currently available VARV genomes most likely dates to late 16th and early 17th centuries and not ~1350 AD. PMID:28956829

Sediment accumulation in prairie wetlands under a changing climate: The relative roles of landscape and precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Burris, Lucy E.; Granfors, Diane A.

2016-01-01

Sediment accumulation threatens the viability and hydrologic functioning of many naturally formed depressional wetlands across the interior regions of North America. These wetlands provide many ecosystem services and vital habitats for diverse plant and animal communities. Climate change may further impact sediment accumulation rates in the context of current land use patterns. We estimated sediment accretion in wetlands within a region renowned for its large populations of breeding waterfowl and migrant shorebirds and examined the relative roles of precipitation and land use context in the sedimentation process. We modeled rates of sediment accumulation from 1971 through 2100 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a sediment delivery ratio and the Unit Stream Power Erosion Deposition model (USPED). These models predicted that by 2100, 21–33 % of wetlands filled completely with sediment and 27–46 % filled by half with sediments; estimates are consistent with measured sediment accumulation rates in the region reported by empirical studies. Sediment accumulation rates were strongly influenced by size of the catchment, greater coverage of tilled landscape within the catchment, and steeper slopes. Conservation efforts that incorporate the relative risk of infilling of wetlands with sediments, thus emphasizing areas of high topographic relief and large watersheds, may benefit wetland-dependent biota.

Bivariate tensor product [Formula: see text]-analogue of Kantorovich-type Bernstein-Stancu-Schurer operators.

PubMed

Cai, Qing-Bo; Xu, Xiao-Wei; Zhou, Guorong

2017-01-01

In this paper, we construct a bivariate tensor product generalization of Kantorovich-type Bernstein-Stancu-Schurer operators based on the concept of [Formula: see text]-integers. We obtain moments and central moments of these operators, give the rate of convergence by using the complete modulus of continuity for the bivariate case and estimate a convergence theorem for the Lipschitz continuous functions. We also give some graphs and numerical examples to illustrate the convergence properties of these operators to certain functions.

Diagonal couplings of quantum Markov chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kümmerer, Burkhard; Schwieger, Kay

2016-05-01

In this paper we extend the coupling method from classical probability theory to quantum Markov chains on atomic von Neumann algebras. In particular, we establish a coupling inequality, which allow us to estimate convergence rates by analyzing couplings. For a given tensor dilation we construct a self-coupling of a Markov operator. It turns out that the coupling is a dual version of the extended dual transition operator studied by Gohm et al. We deduce that this coupling is successful if and only if the dilation is asymptotically complete.

Availability analysis of an HTGR fuel recycle facility. Summary report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharmahd, J.N.

1979-11-01

An availability analysis of reprocessing systems in a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) fuel recycle facility was completed. This report summarizes work done to date to define and determine reprocessing system availability for a previously planned HTGR recycle reference facility (HRRF). Schedules and procedures for further work during reprocessing development and for HRRF design and construction are proposed in this report. Probable failure rates, transfer times, and repair times are estimated for major system components. Unscheduled down times are summarized.

Do subjective measures of attention and memory predict actual performance? Metacognition in older couples.

PubMed

Volz-Sidiropoulou, Eftychia; Gauggel, Siegfried

2012-06-01

Older individuals who recognize their cognitive difficulties are more likely to adjust their everyday life to their actual cognitive functioning, particularly when they are able to estimate their abilities accurately. We assessed self- and spouse-ratings of memory and attention difficulties in everyday life of healthy, older individuals and compared them with the respective test performance. Eighty-four older individuals (women's age, M = 67.4 years, SD = 5.2; men's age, M = 68.5 years, SD = 4.9) completed both the self and the spouse versions of the Attention Deficit Questionnaire and the Everyday Memory Questionnaire and completed two neuropsychological tests. Using the residual score approach, subjective metacognitive measures of memory and attention were created and compared with actual test performance. Significant associations between subjective and objective scores were found only for men and only for episodic memory measures. Men who underreported memory difficulties performed more poorly; men who overreported memory difficulties performed better. Men's recognition performance was best predicted by subjective measures (R² = .25), followed by delayed recall (R² = .14) and forgetting rate (R² = .13). The results indicate gender-specific differences in metacognitive accuracy and predictive validity of subjective ratings. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Gas-Phase Reaction Pathways and Rate Coefficients for the Dichlorosilane-Hydrogen and Trichlorosilane-Hydrogen Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dateo, Christopher E.; Walch, Stephen P.

2002-01-01

As part of NASA Ames Research Center's Integrated Process Team on Device/Process Modeling and Nanotechnology our goal is to create/contribute to a gas-phase chemical database for use in modeling microelectronics devices. In particular, we use ab initio methods to determine chemical reaction pathways and to evaluate reaction rate coefficients. Our initial studies concern reactions involved in the dichlorosilane-hydrogen (SiCl2H2--H2) and trichlorosilane-hydrogen (SiCl2H-H2) systems. Reactant, saddle point (transition state), and product geometries and their vibrational harmonic frequencies are determined using the complete-active-space self-consistent-field (CASSCF) electronic structure method with the correlation consistent polarized valence double-zeta basis set (cc-pVDZ). Reaction pathways are constructed by following the imaginary frequency mode of the saddle point to both the reactant and product. Accurate energetics are determined using the singles and doubles coupled-cluster method that includes a perturbational estimate of the effects of connected triple excitations (CCSD(T)) extrapolated to the complete basis set limit. Using the data from the electronic structure calculations, reaction rate coefficients are obtained using conventional and variational transition state and RRKM theories.

Perceptions of portion size and energy content: implications for strategies to affect behaviour change.

PubMed

Brindal, Emily; Wilson, Carlene; Mohr, Philip; Wittert, Gary

2012-02-01

To assess Australian consumers' perception of portion size of fast-food items and their ability to estimate energy content. Cross-sectional computer-based survey. Australia. Fast-food consumers (168 male, 324 female) were asked to recall the items eaten at the most recent visit to a fast-food restaurant, rate the prospective satiety and estimate the energy content of seven fast-food or 'standard' meals relative to a 9000 kJ Guideline Daily Amount. Nine dietitians also completed the energy estimation task. Ratings of prospective satiety generally aligned with the actual size of the meals and indicated that consumers perceived all meals to provide an adequate amount of food, although this differed by gender. The magnitude of the error in energy estimation by consumers was three to ten times that of the dietitians. In both males and females, the average error in energy estimation for the fast-food meals (females: mean 3911 (sd 1998) kJ; males: mean 3382 (sd 1957) kJ) was significantly (P < 0·001) larger than for the standard meals (females: mean 2607 (sd 1623) kJ; males: mean 2754 (sd 1652) kJ). In women, error in energy estimation for fast-food items predicted actual energy intake from fast-food items (β = 0·16, P < 0·01). Knowledge of the energy content of standard and fast-food meals in fast-food consumers in Australia is poor. Awareness of dietary energy should be a focus of health promotion if nutrition information, in its current format, is going to alter behaviour.

Preindustrial, historical, and fertilization simulations using a global ocean carbon model with new parameterizations of iron limitation, calcification, and N 2 fixation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahariev, Konstantin; Christian, James R.; Denman, Kenneth L.

2008-04-01

The Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC) has been developed as part of a global coupled climate carbon model. In a stand-alone integration to preindustrial equilibrium, the model ecosystem and global ocean carbon cycle are in general agreement with estimates based on observations. CMOC reproduces global mean estimates and spatial distributions of various indicators of the strength of the biological pump; the spatial distribution of the air-sea exchange of CO 2 is consistent with present-day estimates. Agreement with the observed distribution of alkalinity is good, consistent with recent estimates of the mean rain ratio that are lower than historic estimates, and with calcification occurring primarily in the lower latitudes. With anthropogenic emissions and climate forcing from a 1850-2000 climate model simulation, anthropogenic CO 2 accumulates at a similar rate and with a similar spatial distribution as estimated from observations. A hypothetical scenario for complete elimination of iron limitation generates maximal rates of uptake of atmospheric CO 2 of less than 1 PgC y -1, or about 11% of 2004 industrial emissions. Even a ‘perfect’ future of sustained fertilization would have a minor impact on atmospheric CO 2 growth. In the long term, the onset of fertilization causes the ocean to take up an additional 77 PgC after several thousand years, compared with about 84 PgC thought to have occurred during the transition into the last glacial maximum due to iron fertilization associated with increased dust deposition.

Finite-size analysis of a continuous-variable quantum key distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leverrier, Anthony; Grosshans, Frederic; Grangier, Philippe

2010-06-15

The goal of this paper is to extend the framework of finite-size analysis recently developed for quantum key distribution to continuous-variable protocols. We do not solve this problem completely here, and we mainly consider the finite-size effects on the parameter estimation procedure. Despite the fact that some questions are left open, we are able to give an estimation of the secret key rate for protocols which do not contain a postselection procedure. As expected, these results are significantly more pessimistic than those obtained in the asymptotic regime. However, we show that recent continuous-variable protocols are able to provide fully securemore » secret keys in the finite-size scenario, over distances larger than 50 km.« less

Completion and Attrition Rates for Apprentices and Trainees, 2016. Australian Vocational Education and Training Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2017

2017-01-01

This publication presents completion and attrition rates for apprentices and trainees using three different methodologies: (1) contract completion and attrition rates: based on the outcomes of contracts of training; (2) individual completion rates: based on contract completion rates and adjusted for factors representing average recommencements by…

Completion and Attrition Rates for Apprentices and Trainees 2014. Australian Vocational Education and Training Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2015

2015-01-01

This publication presents completion and attrition rates for apprentices and trainees using three different methodologies: (1) contract completion and attrition rates: based on the outcomes of contracts of training; (2) individual completion rates: based on contract completion rates and adjusted for factors representing average recommencements by…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mignerey, A.C.; Helz, G.R.; Purdy, C.B.

The project has used isotopic tracers to study the waters of two of the three major aquifers in the Coastal Plain of Maryland, the Aquia and the Magothy. Estimates of the time water has been in the ground, as a function of flow distance from the outcrop, have been made based on the effect of sea level on the isotopic concentrations and ratios. An age of about 18,000 y is obtained for Aquia water 40 km from the outcrop. Assuming a constant flow rate throughout the aquifer puts the oldest water at approximately 40,000 y old. Although information on themore » Magothy aquifer is less complete, flow rates appear to be similar to those in the Aquia.« less

Kinetics of matching.

PubMed

Mark, T A; Gallistel, C R

1994-01-01

Rats responded on concurrent variable interval schedules of brain stimulation reward in 2-trial sessions. Between trials, there was a 16-fold reversal in the relative rate of reward. In successive, narrow time windows, the authors compared the ratio of the times spent on the 2 levers to the ratio of the rewards received. Time-allocation ratios tracked wide, random fluctuations in the reward ratio. The adjustment to the midsession reversal in relative rate of reward was largely completed within 1 interreward interval on the leaner schedule. Both results were unaffected by a 16-fold change in the combined rates of reward. The large, rapid, scale-invariant shifts in time-allocation ratios that underlie matching behavior imply that the subjective relative rate of reward can be determined by a very few of the most recent interreward intervals and that this estimate can directly determine the ratio of the expected stay durations.

Phase III : GIS for the Appalachian Development Highway System 2007 cost to complete estimate

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-02-01

The proposed research will create an ADHS GIS for integrating and disseminating GIS and transportation data that will increase the accuracy and efficiency associated with completing the 2007 ADHS Cost to Complete Estimate. This project will create ap...

Statistical Application and Cost Saving in a Dental Survey.

PubMed

Chyou, Po-Huang; Schroeder, Dixie; Schwei, Kelsey; Acharya, Amit

2017-06-01

To effectively achieve a robust survey response rate in a timely manner, an alternative approach to survey distribution, informed by statistical modeling, was applied to efficiently and cost-effectively achieve the targeted rate of return. A prospective environmental scan surveying adoption of health information technology utilization within their practices was undertaken in a national pool of dental professionals (N=8000) using an alternative method of sampling. The piloted approach to rate of cohort sampling targeted a response rate of 400 completed surveys from among randomly targeted eligible providers who were contacted using replicated subsampling leveraging mailed surveys. Two replicated subsample mailings (n=1000 surveys/mailings) were undertaken to project the true response rate and estimate the total number of surveys required to achieve the final target. Cost effectiveness and non-response bias analyses were performed. The final mailing required approximately 24% fewer mailings compared to targeting of the entire cohort, with a final survey capture exceeding the expected target. An estimated $5000 in cost savings was projected by applying the alternative approach. Non-response analyses found no evidence of bias relative to demographics, practice demographics, or topically-related survey questions. The outcome of this pilot study suggests that this approach to survey studies will accomplish targeted enrollment in a cost effective manner. Future studies are needed to validate this approach in the context of other survey studies. © 2017 Marshfield Clinic.

Atmospheric emission characterization of Marcellus shale natural gas development sites.

PubMed

Goetz, J Douglas; Floerchinger, Cody; Fortner, Edward C; Wormhoudt, Joda; Massoli, Paola; Knighton, W Berk; Herndon, Scott C; Kolb, Charles E; Knipping, Eladio; Shaw, Stephanie L; DeCarlo, Peter F

2015-06-02

Limited direct measurements of criteria pollutants emissions and precursors, as well as natural gas constituents, from Marcellus shale gas development activities contribute to uncertainty about their atmospheric impact. Real-time measurements were made with the Aerodyne Research Inc. Mobile Laboratory to characterize emission rates of atmospheric pollutants. Sites investigated include production well pads, a well pad with a drill rig, a well completion, and compressor stations. Tracer release ratio methods were used to estimate emission rates. A first-order correction factor was developed to account for errors introduced by fenceline tracer release. In contrast to observations from other shale plays, elevated volatile organic compounds, other than CH4 and C2H6, were generally not observed at the investigated sites. Elevated submicrometer particle mass concentrations were also generally not observed. Emission rates from compressor stations ranged from 0.006 to 0.162 tons per day (tpd) for NOx, 0.029 to 0.426 tpd for CO, and 67.9 to 371 tpd for CO2. CH4 and C2H6 emission rates from compressor stations ranged from 0.411 to 4.936 tpd and 0.023 to 0.062 tpd, respectively. Although limited in sample size, this study provides emission rate estimates for some processes in a newly developed natural gas resource and contributes valuable comparisons to other shale gas studies.

Timing the Mode Switch in a Sequential Mixed-Mode Survey: An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact on Final Response Rates, Key Estimates, and Costs

PubMed Central

Wagner, James; Schroeder, Heather M.; Piskorowski, Andrew; Ursano, Robert J.; Stein, Murray B.; Heeringa, Steven G.; Colpe, Lisa J.

2017-01-01

Mixed-mode surveys need to determine a number of design parameters that may have a strong influence on costs and errors. In a sequential mixed-mode design with web followed by telephone, one of these decisions is when to switch modes. The web mode is relatively inexpensive but produces lower response rates. The telephone mode complements the web mode in that it is relatively expensive but produces higher response rates. Among the potential negative consequences, delaying the switch from web to telephone may lead to lower response rates if the effectiveness of the prenotification contact materials is reduced by longer time lags, or if the additional e-mail reminders to complete the web survey annoy the sampled person. On the positive side, delaying the switch may decrease the costs of the survey. We evaluate these costs and errors by experimentally testing four different timings (1, 2, 3, or 4 weeks) for the mode switch in a web–telephone survey. This experiment was conducted on the fourth wave of a longitudinal study of the mental health of soldiers in the U.S. Army. We find that the different timings of the switch in the range of 1–4 weeks do not produce differences in final response rates or key estimates but longer delays before switching do lead to lower costs. PMID:28943717

Statistical Application and Cost Saving in a Dental Survey

PubMed Central

Chyou, Po-Huang; Schroeder, Dixie; Schwei, Kelsey; Acharya, Amit

2017-01-01

Objective To effectively achieve a robust survey response rate in a timely manner, an alternative approach to survey distribution, informed by statistical modeling, was applied to efficiently and cost-effectively achieve the targeted rate of return. Design A prospective environmental scan surveying adoption of health information technology utilization within their practices was undertaken in a national pool of dental professionals (N=8000) using an alternative method of sampling. The piloted approach to rate of cohort sampling targeted a response rate of 400 completed surveys from among randomly targeted eligible providers who were contacted using replicated subsampling leveraging mailed surveys. Methods Two replicated subsample mailings (n=1000 surveys/mailings) were undertaken to project the true response rate and estimate the total number of surveys required to achieve the final target. Cost effectiveness and non-response bias analyses were performed. Results The final mailing required approximately 24% fewer mailings compared to targeting of the entire cohort, with a final survey capture exceeding the expected target. An estimated $5000 in cost savings was projected by applying the alternative approach. Non-response analyses found no evidence of bias relative to demographics, practice demographics, or topically-related survey questions. Conclusion The outcome of this pilot study suggests that this approach to survey studies will accomplish targeted enrollment in a cost effective manner. Future studies are needed to validate this approach in the context of other survey studies. PMID:28373286

A biopsychosocial investigation of changes in self-concept on the Head Injury Semantic Differential Scale.

PubMed

Reddy, Avneel; Ownsworth, Tamara; King, Joshua; Shields, Cassandra

2017-12-01

This study aimed to investigate the influence of the "good-old-days" bias, neuropsychological functioning and cued recall of life events on self-concept change. Forty seven adults with TBI (70% male, 1-5 years post-injury) and 47 matched controls rated their past and present self-concept on the Head Injury Semantic Differential Scale (HISD) III. TBI participants also completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. The matched control group of 47 were from a sample of 78 uninjured participants who were randomised to complete either the Social Readjustment Rating Scale-Revised (cued recall) or HISD (non-cued recall) first. Consistent with the good-old-days bias, participants with TBI rated their pre-injury self-concept as more positive than their present self-concept and the present self-concept of controls (p < .05). More positive pre-injury self-concept ratings were related to lower estimated premorbid IQ and poorer verbal fluency and delayed memory (p < .05). For uninjured participants, cued recall, life events and event appraisals each accounted for unique variance in self-concept change (p < .01) after controlling for negative affect. The cued recall group rated their past self-concept as significantly more negative than the non-cued group (p < .01). Overall, the good-old-days bias, neuropsychological functioning and cued recall influenced reports of self-concept change by affecting retrospective ratings of past self-concept. Further research is needed to investigate the impact of contextual cues on self-concept change after TBI.

Estimated dose rates to members of the public from external exposure to patients with {sup 131}I thyroid treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dewji, S., E-mail: dewjisa@ornl.gov; Bellamy, M.; Leggett, R.

Purpose: Estimated dose rates that may result from exposure to patients who had been administered iodine-131 ({sup 131}I) as part of medical therapy were calculated. These effective dose rate estimates were compared with simplified assumptions under United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 8.39, which does not consider body tissue attenuation nor time-dependent redistribution and excretion of the administered {sup 131}I. Methods: Dose rates were estimated for members of the public potentially exposed to external irradiation from patients recently treated with {sup 131}I. Tissue attenuation and iodine biokinetics were considered in the patient in a larger comprehensive effort to improvemore » external dose rate estimates. The external dose rate estimates are based on Monte Carlo simulations using the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs (PIMAL), previously developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. PIMAL was employed to model the relative positions of the {sup 131}I patient and members of the public in three exposure scenarios: (1) traveling on a bus in a total of six seated or standing permutations, (2) two nursing home cases where a caregiver is seated at 30 cm from the patient’s bedside and a nursing home resident seated 250 cm away from the patient in an adjacent bed, and (3) two hotel cases where the patient and a guest are in adjacent rooms with beds on opposite sides of the common wall, with the patient and guest both in bed and either seated back-to-back or lying head to head. The biokinetic model predictions of the retention and distribution of {sup 131}I in the patient assumed a single voiding of urinary bladder contents that occurred during the trip at 2, 4, or 8 h after {sup 131}I administration for the public transportation cases, continuous first-order voiding for the nursing home cases, and regular periodic voiding at 4, 8, or 12 h after administration for the hotel room cases. Organ specific activities of {sup 131}I in the thyroid, bladder, and combined remaining tissues were calculated as a function of time after administration. Exposures to members of the public were considered for {sup 131}I patients with normal thyroid uptake (peak thyroid uptake of ∼27% of administered {sup 131}I), differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC, 5% uptake), and hyperthyroidism (80% uptake). Results: The scenario with the patient seated behind the member of the public yielded the highest dose rate estimate of seated public transportation exposure cases. The dose rate to the adjacent room guest was highest for the exposure scenario in which the hotel guest and patient are seated by a factor of ∼4 for the normal and differentiated thyroid cancer uptake cases and by a factor of ∼3 for the hyperthyroid case. Conclusions: It was determined that for all modeled cases, the DTC case yielded the lowest external dose rates, whereas the hyperthyroid case yielded the highest dose rates. In estimating external dose to members of the public from patients with {sup 131}I therapy, consideration must be given to (patient- and case-specific) administered {sup 131}I activities and duration of exposure for a more complete estimate. The method implemented here included a detailed calculation model, which provides a means to determine dose rate estimates for a range of scenarios. The method was demonstrated for variations of three scenarios, showing how dose rates are expected to vary with uptake, voiding pattern, and patient location.« less

Rocket Based Combined Cycle Exchange Inlet Performance Estimation at Supersonic Speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murzionak, Aliaksandr

A method to estimate the performance of an exchange inlet for a Rocket Based Combined Cycle engine is developed. This method is to be used for exchange inlet geometry optimization and as such should be able to predict properties that can be used in the design process within a reasonable amount of time to allow multiple configurations to be evaluated. The method is based on a curve fit of the shocks developed around the major components of the inlet using solutions for shocks around sharp cones and 2D estimations of the shocks around wedges with blunt leading edges. The total pressure drop across the estimated shocks as well as the mass flow rate through the exchange inlet are calculated. The estimations for a selected range of free-stream Mach numbers between 1.1 and 7 are compared against numerical finite volume method simulations which were performed using available commercial software (Ansys-CFX). The total pressure difference between the two methods is within 10% for the tested Mach numbers of 5 and below, while for the Mach 7 test case the difference is 30%. The mass flow rate on average differs by less than 5% for all tested cases with the maximum difference not exceeding 10%. The estimation method takes less than 3 seconds on 3.0 GHz single core processor to complete the calculations for a single flight condition as oppose to over 5 days on 8 cores at 2.4 GHz system while using 3D finite volume method simulation with 1.5 million elements mesh. This makes the estimation method suitable for the use with exchange inlet geometry optimization algorithm.

A Comprehensive Linkage Map of the Dog Genome

PubMed Central

Wong, Aaron K.; Ruhe, Alison L.; Dumont, Beth L.; Robertson, Kathryn R.; Guerrero, Giovanna; Shull, Sheila M.; Ziegle, Janet S.; Millon, Lee V.; Broman, Karl W.; Payseur, Bret A.; Neff, Mark W.

2010-01-01

We have leveraged the reference sequence of a boxer to construct the first complete linkage map for the domestic dog. The new map improves access to the dog's unique biology, from human disease counterparts to fascinating evolutionary adaptations. The map was constructed with ∼3000 microsatellite markers developed from the reference sequence. Familial resources afforded 450 mostly phase-known meioses for map assembly. The genotype data supported a framework map with ∼1500 loci. An additional ∼1500 markers served as map validators, contributing modestly to estimates of recombination rate but supporting the framework content. Data from ∼22,000 SNPs informing on a subset of meioses supported map integrity. The sex-averaged map extended 21 M and revealed marked region- and sex-specific differences in recombination rate. The map will enable empiric coverage estimates and multipoint linkage analysis. Knowledge of the variation in recombination rate will also inform on genomewide patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD), and thus benefit association, selective sweep, and phylogenetic mapping approaches. The computational and wet-bench strategies can be applied to the reference genome of any nonmodel organism to assemble a de novo linkage map. PMID:19966068

Monitoring of the secondary drying in freeze-drying of pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Fissore, Davide; Pisano, Roberto; Barresi, Antonello A

2011-02-01

This paper is focused on the in-line monitoring of the secondary drying phase of a lyophilization process. An innovative software sensor is presented to estimate reliably the residual moisture in the product and the time required to complete secondary drying, that is, to reach the target value of the residual moisture or of the desorption rate. Such results are obtained by coupling a mathematical model of the process and the in-line measurement of the solvent desorption rate and by means of the pressure rise test or another sensors (e.g., windmills, laser sensors) that can measure the vapor flux in the drying chamber. The proposed method does not require extracting any vial during the operation or using expensive sensors to measure off-line the residual moisture. Moreover, it does not require any preliminary experiment to determine the relationship between the desorption rate and residual moisture in the product. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by means of experiments carried out in a pilot-scale apparatus: in this case, some vials were extracted from the drying chamber and the moisture content was measured to validate the estimations provided by the soft-sensor. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A non-contact capacitance based electrocardiograph and associated heart-rate detection using enhanced Fourier interpolation method.

PubMed

Kumar Thakur, Rupak; Anoop, C S

2015-08-01

Cardio-vascular health monitoring has gained considerable attention in the recent years. Principle of non-contact capacitive electrocardiograph (ECG) and its applicability as a valuable, low-cost, easy-to-use scheme for cardio-vascular health monitoring has been demonstrated in some recent research papers. In this paper, we develop a complete non-contact ECG system using a suitable front-end electronic circuit and a heart-rate (HR) measurement unit using enhanced Fourier interpolation technique. The front-end electronic circuit is realized using low-cost, readily available components and the proposed HR measurement unit is designed to achieve fairly accurate results. The entire system has been extensively tested to verify its efficacy and test results show that the developed system can estimate HR with an accuracy of ±2 beats. Detailed tests have been conducted to validate the performance of the system for different cloth thicknesses of the subject. Some basic tests which illustrate the application of the proposed system for heart-rate variability estimation has been conducted and results reported. The developed system can be used as a portable, reliable, long-term cardiac health monitoring device and can be extended to human drowsiness detection.

Complete kinetic mechanism for recycling of the bacterial ribosome

PubMed Central

Borg, Anneli; Pavlov, Michael

2016-01-01

How EF-G and RRF act together to split a post-termination ribosomal complex into its subunits has remained obscure. Here, using stopped-flow experiments with Rayleigh light scattering detection and quench-flow experiments with radio-detection of GTP hydrolysis, we have clarified the kinetic mechanism of ribosome recycling and obtained precise estimates of its kinetic parameters. Ribosome splitting requires that EF-G binds to an already RRF-containing ribosome. EF-G binding to RRF-free ribosomes induces futile rounds of GTP hydrolysis and inhibits ribosome splitting, implying that while RRF is purely an activator of recycling, EF-G acts as both activator and competitive inhibitor of RRF in recycling of the post-termination ribosome. The ribosome splitting rate and the number of GTPs consumed per splitting event depend strongly on the free concentrations of EF-G and RRF. The maximal recycling rate, here estimated as 25 sec−1, is approached at very high concentrations of EF-G and RRF with RRF in high excess over EF-G. The present in vitro results, suggesting an in vivo ribosome recycling rate of ∼5 sec−1, are discussed in the perspective of rapidly growing bacterial cells. PMID:26527791

Identifying correlates of self-stigma in adults who stutter: Further establishing the construct validity of the Self-Stigma of Stuttering Scale (4S).

PubMed

Boyle, Michael P

2015-03-01

This study was set up to further establish the construct validity of the Self-Stigma of Stuttering Scale (4S) by demonstrating its associations with other established scales and replicating its original factor structure and reliability estimates. Web surveys were completed by 354 adults who stutter recruited from Board Certified Specialists in Fluency Disorders, and adult chapters of the National Stuttering Association. Participants completed a series of psychometrically validated scales measuring self-stigma, hope, empowerment, quality of life, social support, anxiety, depression, and self-rated speech disruption. Higher subscale and total stigma scores on the 4S were associated with significantly lower levels of hope, empowerment, quality of life, and social support, and significantly higher levels of anxiety, depression, and self-rated speech disruption. The original factor structure of the 4S was replicated, and reliability estimates of the subscales ranged from adequate to excellent. The findings of this study support the construct validity of the 4S and its use by clinicians and researchers intending to measure the construct of self-stigma in adults who stutter. Readers should be able to: (a) distinguish between the various components of self-stigma; (b) describe how the various components of the self-stigma model relate to hope, empowerment, quality of life, and social support, self-rated speech disruption, anxiety, and depression; (c) summarize the psychometric properties of the Self-Stigma of Stuttering Scale (4S) in terms of reliability, factor structure, and construct validity; (d) discuss how the 4S could be used in research and clinical practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of growth rate on nitrogen balance in adolescent sprint athletes.

PubMed

Aerenhouts, Dirk; Van Cauwenberg, Jelle; Poortmans, Jacques Remi; Hauspie, Ronald; Clarys, Peter

2013-08-01

This study aimed to estimate nitrogen balance and protein requirements in adolescent sprint athletes as a function of growth rate and physical development. Sixty adolescent sprint athletes were followed up biannually over a 2-yr period. Individual growth curves and age at peak height velocity were determined. Skeletal muscle mass (SMM) was estimated based on anthropometric measurements and fat mass was estimated by underwater densitometry. Seven-day diet and physical activity diaries were completed to estimate energy balance and protein intake. Nitrogen analysis of 24-hr urine samples collected on 1 weekday and 1 weekend day allowed calculation of nitrogen balance. Body height, weight, and SMM increased throughout the study period in both genders. Mean protein intakes were between 1.4 and 1.6 g kg-1 day-1 in both genders. A protein intake of 1.46 g kg-1 day-1 in girls and 1.35 g kg-1 day-1 in boys was needed to yield a positive nitrogen balance. This did not differ between participants during and after their growth spurt. None of the growth parameters was significantly related to nitrogen balance. It can be concluded that a mean protein intake around 1.5 g kg-1 day-1 was sufficient to stay in a positive nitrogen balance, even during periods of peak growth. Therefore, protein intake should not be enhanced in peak periods of linear or muscular growth.

Characterizing hydraulic conductivity with the direct-push permeameter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butler, J.J.; Dietrich, P.; Wittig, V.; Christy, T.

2007-01-01

The direct-push permeameter (DPP) is a promising approach for obtaining high-resolution information about vertical variations in hydraulic conductivity (K) in shallow unconsolidated settings. This small-diameter tool, which consists of a short screened section with a pair of transducers inset in the tool near the screen, is pushed into the subsurface to a depth at which a K estimate is desired. A short hydraulic test is then performed by injecting water through the screen at a constant rate (less than 4 L/min) while pressure changes are monitored at the transducer locations. Hydraulic conductivity is calculated using the injection rate and the pressure changes in simple expressions based on Darcy's Law. In units of moderate or higher hydraulic conductivity (more than 1 m/d), testing at a single level can be completed within 10 to 15 min. Two major advantages of the method are its speed and the insensitivity of the K estimates to the zone of compaction created by tool advancement. The potential of the approach has been assessed at two extensively studied sites in the United States and Germany over a K range commonly faced in practical field investigations (0.02 to 500 m/d). The results of this assessment demonstrate that the DPP can provide high-resolution K estimates that are in good agreement with estimates obtained through other means. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Medical costs and lost productivity from health conditions at volatile organic compound-contaminated Superfund sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lybarger, J.A.; Spengler, R.F.; Brown, D.R.

1998-10-01

This paper estimates the health costs at Superfund sites for conditions associated with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water. Health conditions were identified from published literature and registry information as occurring at excess rates in VOC-exposed populations. These health conditions were: (1) some categories of birth defects, (2) urinary tract disorders, (3) diabetes, (4) eczema and skin conditions, (5) anemia, (6) speech and hearing impairments in children under 10 years of age, and (7) stroke. Excess rates were used to estimate the excess number of cases occurring among the total population living within one-half mile of 258 Superfund sites.more » These sites had evidence of completed human exposure pathways for VOCs in drinking water. For each type of medical condition, an individual`s expected medical costs, long-term care costs, and lost work time due to illness or premature mortality were estimated. Costs were calculated to be approximately $330 million per year, in the absence of any remediation or public health intervention programs. The results indicate the general magnitude of the economic burden associated with a limited number of contaminants at a portion of all Superfund sites, thus suggesting that the burden would be greater than that estimated in this study if all contaminants at all Superfund sites could be taken into account.« less

The ocean in near equilibrium with atmospheric methyl bromide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Lei; Yvon-Lewis, Shari; Liu, Yina; Bianchi, Thomas S.

2012-09-01

Saturation-anomaly measurements of methyl bromide (CH3Br) were made in the eastern Pacific (3/30-4/27, 2010) and the eastern Atlantic (10/25-11/26, 2010) to assess the oceanic saturation state as the phaseout of fumigation - non-Quarantine and Pre-Shipment (non-QPS) uses of CH3Br nears completion and atmospheric concentrations continue to decline. These cruises occurred 16 years after the Bromine Latitudinal Air-Sea Transect (BLAST) cruises, which were conducted in the same regions and first established a global oceanic net sink of -12.6 Gg yr-1 for atmospheric CH3Br in 1994. Results from this study suggest saturation anomalies of CH3Br in the surface ocean have become less negative than those observed 16 years ago as the atmospheric burden has declined over the past decade. The global net sea-to-air flux was estimated at 0 to 3 Gg yr-1 in 2010, suggesting that the ocean may become a net small source to atmospheric CH3Br. There are no significant differences between this study and previous studies for measured biological loss rate constants and calculated annual production rates, suggesting that annual production rates and biological degradation rate constants for CH3Br in the surface ocean have likely remained relatively constant over the past 16 years. When including the biological loss rate constants from this study and all previous studies, the mean global biological loss rate constant is constrained to 0.05 ± 0.01 d-1 (at a 95% confidence level). Combining chemical and eddy degradation rate constants, and using an updated gas transfer velocity, we estimate the CH3Br partial atmospheric lifetime with respect to oceanic loss to be 3.1 (2.3 to 5.0) years. Although the new partial atmospheric lifetime is about 1.3 years longer than the best prior estimate, it does not change the overall atmospheric lifetime of CH3Br, 0.8 (0.7-0.9) years.

CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ASSESSMENT FOR THE COFIRING OF BIOREFINERY SUPPLIED LIGNIN PROJECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David J. Webster; Jeffrey T. Ranney; Jacqueline G. Broder

2002-07-01

The major aspects of this project are proceeding toward completion. Prior to this quarter, design criteria, tentative site selection, facility layout, and preliminary facility cost estimates were completed. Processing of biosolids and pilot facility hydrolysis production have been completed to produce lignin for cofire testing. EERC had received all the biomass and baseline coal fuels for use in testing. All the combustion and fuel handling tests at EERC have been completed. During fuel preparation EERC reported no difficulties in fuel blending and handling. Preliminary cofire test results indicate that the blending of lignin and biosolids with the Colbert coal blendmore » generally reduces NOx emissions, increases the reactivity of the coal, and increases the ash deposition rate on superheater surfaces. Deposits produced from the fuel blends, however, are more friable and hence easier to remove from tube surfaces relative to those produced from the baseline Colbert coal blend. A draft of the final cofire technical report entitled ''Effects of Cofiring Lignin and Biosolids with Coal on Fireside Performance and Combustion Products'' has been prepared and is currently being reviewed by project team members. A final report is expected by mid-third quarter 2002. The TVA-Colbert facility has neared completion of the task to evaluate co-location of the Masada facility on the operation of the power generation facility. The TVA-Colbert fossil plant is fully capable of providing a reliable steam supply. The environmental review, preferred steam supply connection points and steam pipeline routing, and assessment of steam export impacts have been completed without major issue. A cost estimate for the steam supply system was also completed. TVA is further evaluating the impacts of adding lignin to the coal fuel blend and how the steam cost is impacted by proximity of the Masada biomass facility. TVA has provided a draft final report that is under review by team members.« less

Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts.

PubMed

Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J

2018-01-01

Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Home-based aerobic conditioning for management of symptoms of fibromyalgia: a pilot study.

PubMed

Harden, R Norman; Song, Sharon; Fasen, Jo; Saltz, Samuel L; Nampiaparampil, Devi; Vo, Andrew; Revivo, Gadi

2012-06-01

This pilot study was designed to evaluate the impact of a home-based aerobic conditioning program on symptoms of fibromyalgia and determine if changes in symptoms were related to quantitative changes in aerobic conditioning (VO(2) max). Twenty-six sedentary individuals diagnosed with fibromyalgia syndrome participated in an individualized 12-week home-based aerobic exercise program with the goal of daily aerobic exercise of 30 minutes at 80% of estimated maximum heart rate. The aerobic conditioning took place in the participants' homes, outdoors, or at local fitness clubs at the discretion of the individual under the supervision of a physical therapist. Patients were evaluated at baseline and completion for physiological level of aerobic conditioning (VO(2) max), pain ratings, pain disability, depression, and stress. In this pilot study subjects who successfully completed the 12-week exercise program demonstrated an increase in aerobic conditioning, a trend toward decrease in pain measured by the McGill Pain Questionnaire-Short Form and a weak trend toward improvements in visual analog scale, depression, and perceived stress. Patients who were unable or unwilling to complete this aerobic conditioning program reported significantly greater pain and perceived disability (and a trend toward more depression) at baseline than those who completed the program. Patients suffering from fibromyalgia who can participate in an aerobic conditioning program may experience physiological and psychological benefits, perhaps with improvement in symptoms of fibromyalgia, specifically pain ratings. More definitive trials are needed, and this pilot demonstrates the feasibility of the quantitative VO2 max method. Subjects who experience significant perceived disability and negative affective symptoms are not likely to maintain a home-based conditioning program, and may need a more comprehensive interdisciplinary program offering greater psychological and social support. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Nexus between the Above-Average Effect and Cooperative Learning in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breneiser, Jennifer E.; Monetti, David M.; Adams, Katharine S.

2012-01-01

The present study examines the above-average effect (Chambers & Windschitl, 2004; Moore & Small, 2007) in assessments of task performance. Participants completed self-estimates of performance and group estimates of performance, before and after completing a task. Participants completed a task individually and in groups. Groups were…

Correlates of human papillomavirus vaccination rates in low-income, minority adolescents: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Perkins, Rebecca B; Brogly, Susan B; Adams, William G; Freund, Karen M

2012-08-01

Low rates of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in low-income, minority adolescents may exacerbate racial disparities in cervical cancer incidence. Using electronic medical record data and chart abstraction, we examined correlates of HPV vaccine series initiation and completion among 7702 low-income and minority adolescents aged 11-21 receiving primary care at one of seven medical centers between May 1, 2007, and June 30, 2009. Our population included 61% African Americans, 13% Caucasians, 15% Latinas, and 11% other races; 90% receive public insurance (e.g., Medicaid). We used logistic regression to estimate the associations between vaccine initiation and completion and age, race/ethnicity, number of contacts with the healthcare system, provider documentation, and clinical site of care. Of the 41% of adolescent girls who initiated HPV vaccination, 20% completed the series. A higher proportion of girls aged 11-<13 (46%) and 13-<18 (47%) initiated vaccination than those aged 18-21 (28%). In adjusted analyses, receipt of other recommended adolescent vaccines was associated with vaccine initiation, and increased contact with the medical system was associated with both initiation and completion of the series. Conversely, provider failure to document risky health behaviors predicted nonvaccination. Manual review of a subset of unvaccinated patients' charts revealed no documentation of vaccine discussions in 67% of cases. Fewer than half of low-income and minority adolescents receiving health maintenance services initiated HPV vaccination, and only 20% completed the series. Provider failure to discuss vaccination with their patients appears to be an important contributor to nonvaccination. Future research should focus on improving both initiation and completion of HPV vaccination in high-risk adolescents.

Improvement in the Diagnostic Evaluation of a Positive Fecal Occult Blood Test in an Integrated Health Care Organization

PubMed Central

Miglioretti, Diana L.; Rutter, Carolyn M.; Bradford, Susan Carol; Zauber, Ann G.; Kessler, Larry G.; Feuer, Eric J.; Grossman, David C.

2014-01-01

Background Screening for fecal occult blood can be effective in reducing colorectal cancer mortality only if positive tests are appropriately followed up with complete diagnostic evaluation (i.e., colonoscopy or flexible sigmoidoscopy with double contrast barium enema) and treatment. Objectives To examine whether rates of complete diagnostic evaluation following a positive fecal occult blood test (FOBT) have improved over time after the implementation of tracking systems and physician guidelines within a large integrated health care organization. Research Design From 1993 to 2005, 8513 positive FOBTs were identified on 8291 enrollees aged 50–79 of a large health care system. Automated records were used to identify repeat FOBTs, colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy, and double-contrast barium enema within one year after the positive FOBT. National rates of complete diagnostic evaluation were estimated from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey. Results In this integrated health care organization, the percentage of positive FOBTs followed by complete diagnostic evaluation within one year increased from 57%–64% in 1993–1996 to 82%–86% from 2000–2005. Use of repeat FOBT following a positive FOBT decreased from 28–31% in 1993–1996 to 6–11% in 2000–2005. Based on the National Health Interview Survey, only 52% of positive FOBTs from 2000–2005 were followed by complete diagnostic evaluation nationally. Conclusions Adherence to recommendations for complete diagnostic evaluation following a positive FOBT has greatly improved over time in an integrated group medical practice. Through the use of tracking systems and screening guidelines, it may be possible to reach levels of follow-up that are comparable to those observed in randomized trials. PMID:18725839

Feasibility of using algorithm-based clinical decision support for symptom assessment and management in lung cancer.

PubMed

Cooley, Mary E; Blonquist, Traci M; Catalano, Paul J; Lobach, David F; Halpenny, Barbara; McCorkle, Ruth; Johns, Ellis B; Braun, Ilana M; Rabin, Michael S; Mataoui, Fatma Zohra; Finn, Kathleen; Berry, Donna L; Abrahm, Janet L

2015-01-01

Distressing symptoms interfere with the quality of life in patients with lung cancer. Algorithm-based clinical decision support (CDS) to improve evidence-based management of isolated symptoms seems promising, but no reports yet address multiple symptoms. This study examined the feasibility of CDS for a Symptom Assessment and Management Intervention targeting common symptoms in patients with lung cancer (SAMI-L) in ambulatory oncology. The study objectives were to evaluate completion and delivery rates of the SAMI-L report and clinician adherence to the algorithm-based recommendations. Patients completed a web-based symptom assessment and SAMI-L created tailored recommendations for symptom management. Completion of assessments and delivery of reports were recorded. Medical record review assessed clinician adherence to recommendations. Feasibility was defined as 75% or higher report completion and delivery rates and 80% or higher clinician adherence to recommendations. Descriptive statistics and generalized estimating equations were used for data analyses. Symptom assessment completion was 84% (95% CI=81-87%). Delivery of completed reports was 90% (95% CI=86-93%). Depression (36%), pain (30%), and fatigue (18%) occurred most frequently, followed by anxiety (11%) and dyspnea (6%). On average, overall recommendation adherence was 57% (95% CI=52-62%) and was not dependent on the number of recommendations (P=0.45). Adherence was higher for anxiety (66%; 95% CI=55-77%), depression (64%; 95% CI=56-71%), pain (62%; 95% CI=52-72%), and dyspnea (51%; 95% CI=38-64%) than for fatigue (38%; 95% CI=28-47%). The CDS systems, such as SAMI-L, have the potential to fill a gap in promoting evidence-based care. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of measles and rubella integrated surveillance system in Apulia region, Italy, 3 years after its introduction.

PubMed

Turiac, I A; Fortunato, F; Cappelli, M G; Morea, A; Chironna, M; Prato, Rosa; Martinelli, D

2018-04-01

This study aimed at evaluating the integrated measles and rubella surveillance system (IMRSS) in Apulia region, Italy, from its introduction in 2013 to 30 June 2016. Measles and rubella case reports were extracted from IMRSS. We estimated system sensitivity at the level of case reporting, using the capture-recapture method for three data sources. Data quality was described as the completeness of variables and timeliness of notification as the median-time interval from symptoms onset to initial alert. The proportion of suspected cases with laboratory investigation, the rate of discarded cases and the origin of infection were also computed. A total of 127 measles and four rubella suspected cases were reported to IMRSS and 82 were laboratory confirmed. Focusing our analysis on measles, IMRSS sensitivity was 82% (95% CI: 75-87). Completeness was >98% for mandatory variables and 57% for 'genotyping'. The median-time interval from symptoms onset to initial alert was 4.5 days, with a timeliness of notification of 33% (41 cases reported ⩽48 h). The proportion of laboratory investigation was 87%. The rate of discarded cases was 0.1 per 100 000 inhabitants per year. The origin of infection was identified for 85% of cases. It is concluded that IMRSS provides good quality data and has good sensitivity; still efforts should be made to improve the completeness of laboratory-related variables, timeliness and to increase the rate of discarded cases.

Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history.

PubMed

Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

2015-03-01

Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from males with no PC family history (without PC in first, second, or third degree relatives). RRs were determined for a variety of constellations, for example, number of first through third degree relatives; named (grandfather, father, uncle, cousins, brothers); maternal, paternal relationships, and age of onset. In the 635,443 males analyzed, 18,105 had PC. First-degree RRs ranged from 2.46 (=1 first-degree relative affected, CI = 2.39-2.53) to 7.65 (=4 first-degree relatives affected, CI = 6.28-9.23). Second-degree RRs for probands with 0 affected first-degree relatives ranged from 1.51 (≥1 second-degree relative affected, CI = 1.47-1.56) to 3.09 (≥5 second-degree relatives affected, CI = 2.32-4.03). Third-degree RRs with 0 affected first- and 0 affected second-degree relatives ranged from 1.15 (≥1 affected third-degree relative, CI = 1.12-1.19) to 1.50 (≥5 affected third-degree relatives, CI = 1.35-1.66). RRs based on age at diagnosis were higher for earlier age at diagnoses; for example, RR = 5.54 for ≥1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years (CI = 1.12-1.19) and RR = 1.78 for >1 second-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, CI = 1.33, 2.33. RRs for equivalent maternal versus paternal family history were not significantly different. A more complete PC family history using close and distant relatives and age at diagnosis results in a wider range of estimates of individual RR that are potentially more accurate than RRs estimated from summary family history. The presence of PC in second- and even third-degree relatives contributes significantly to risk. Maternal family history is just as significant as paternal family history. PC RRs based on a proband's complete constellation of affected relatives will allow patients and care providers to make more informed screening, monitoring, and treatment decisions. © 2014 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Travel Times, Streamflow Velocities, and Dispersion Rates in the Yellowstone River, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.

2009-01-01

The Yellowstone River is a vital natural resource to the residents of southeastern Montana and is a primary source of water for irrigation and recreation and the primary source of municipal water for several cities. The Yellowstone River valley is the primary east-west transportation corridor through southern Montana. This complex of infrastructure makes the Yellowstone River especially vulnerable to accidental spills from various sources such as tanker cars and trucks. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a dye-tracer study to determine instream travel times, streamflow velocities, and dispersion rates for the Yellowstone River from Lockwood to Glendive, Montana. The purpose of this report is to describe the results of this study and summarize data collected at each of the measurement sites between Lockwood and Glendive. This report also compares the results of this study to estimated travel times from a transport model developed by the USGS for a previous study. For this study, Rhodamine WT dye was injected at four locations in late September and early October 2008 during reasonably steady streamflow conditions. Streamflows ranged from 3,490 to 3,770 cubic feet per second upstream from the confluence of the Bighorn River and ranged from 6,520 to 7,570 cubic feet per second downstream from the confluence of the Bighorn River. Mean velocities were calculated for each subreach between measurement sites for the leading edge, peak concentration, centroid, and trailing edge at 10 percent of the peak concentration. Calculated velocities for the centroid of the dye plume for subreaches that were completely laterally mixed ranged from 1.83 to 3.18 ft/s within the study reach from Lockwood Bridge to Glendive Bridge. The mean of the completely mixed centroid velocity for the entire study reach, excluding the subreach between Forsyth Bridge and Cartersville Dam, was 2.80 ft/s. Longitudinal dispersion rates of the dye plume for this study ranged from 0.06 ft/s for the subreach upstream from Forsyth Bridge to 2.25 ft/s for the subreach upstream from Calyspo Bridge for subreaches where the dye was completely laterally mixed. A relation was determined between travel time of the peak concentration and time for the dye plume to pass a site (duration). This relation can be used to estimate when the receding concentration of a potential contaminant reaches 10 percent of its peak concentration for accidental spills into the Yellowstone River. Data from this dye-tracer study were used to evaluate velocity and concentration estimates from a transport model developed as part of an earlier USGS study. Comparison of the estimated and calculated velocities for the study reach indicate that the transport model estimates the velocities of the Yellowstone River between Huntley Bridge and Glendive Bridge with reasonable accuracy. Velocities of the peak concentration of the dye plume calculated for this study averaged 10 percent faster than the most probable velocities and averaged 12 percent slower than the maximum probable velocities estimated from the transport model. Peak Rhodamine WT dye concentrations were consistently lower than the transport model estimates except for the most upstream subreach of each dye injection. The most upstream subreach of each dye injection is expected to have a higher concentration because of incomplete lateral mixing. Lower measured peak concentrations for all other sites were expected because Rhodamine WT dye deteriorates when exposed to sunlight and will sorb onto the streambanks and stream bottom. Velocity-streamflow relations developed by using routine streamflow measurements at USGS gaging stations and the transport model can be used to estimate mean streamflow velocities throughout a range of streamflows. The variation in these velocity-streamflow relations emphasizes the uncertainty in estimating the mean streamflow veloc

The Impact of Socioeconomic Status on the Utilization of Spinal Imaging.

PubMed

Derakhshan, Adeeb; Miller, Jacob; Lubelski, Daniel; Nowacki, Amy S; Wells, Brian J; Milinovich, Alex; Benzel, Edward C; Mroz, Thomas E; Steinmetz, Michael P

2015-11-01

Few studies have examined the general correlation between socioeconomic status and imaging. This study is the first to analyze this relationship in the spine patient population. To assess the effect of socioeconomic status on the frequency with which imaging studies of the lumbar spine are ordered and completed. Patients that were diagnosed with lumbar radiculopathy and/or myelopathy and had at least 1 subsequent lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT), or X-ray ordered were retrospectively identified. Demographic information and the number of ordered and completed imaging studies were among the data collected. Patient insurance status and income level (estimated based on zip code) served as representations of socioeconomic status. A total of 24,105 patients met the inclusion criteria for this study. Regression analyses demonstrated that uninsured patients were significantly less likely to have an MRI, CT, or X-ray study ordered (P < .001 for all modalities) and completed (P < .001 for MRI and X-ray, P = .03 for CT). Patients with lower income had higher rates of MRI, CT, and X-ray (P < .001 for all) imaging ordered but were less likely to have an ordered X-ray be completed (P = .009). There was no significant difference in the completion rate of ordered MRIs or CTs. Disparities in image utilization based on socioeconomic characteristics such as insurance status and income level highlight a critical gap in access to health care. Physicians should work to mitigate the influence of such factors when deciding whether to order imaging studies, especially in light of the ongoing shift in health policy in the United States.

Estimation of Free-Living Energy Expenditure by Heart Rate and Movement Sensing: A Doubly-Labelled Water Study

PubMed Central

Brage, Søren; Westgate, Kate; Franks, Paul W.; Stegle, Oliver; Wright, Antony; Ekelund, Ulf; Wareham, Nicholas J.

2015-01-01

Background Accurate assessment of energy expenditure (EE) is important for the study of energy balance and metabolic disorders. Combined heart rate (HR) and acceleration (ACC) sensing may increase precision of physical activity EE (PAEE) which is the most variable component of total EE (TEE). Objective To evaluate estimates of EE using ACC and HR data with or without individual calibration against doubly-labelled water (DLW) estimates of EE. Design 23 women and 23 men (22–55 yrs, 48–104 kg, 8–46%body fat) underwent 45-min resting EE (REE) measurement and completed a 20-min treadmill test, an 8-min step test, and a 3-min walk test for individual calibration. ACC and HR were monitored and TEE measured over 14 days using DLW. Diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT) was calculated from food-frequency questionnaire. PAEE (TEE ÷ REE ÷ DIT) and TEE were compared to estimates from ACC and HR using bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation statistics. Results Mean(SD) measured PAEE and TEE were 66(25) kJ·day-1·kg-1, and 12(2.6) MJ·day-1, respectively. Estimated PAEE from ACC was 54(15) kJ·day-1·kg-1 (p<0.001), with RMSE 24 kJ·day-1·kg-1 and correlation r = 0.52. PAEE estimated from HR and ACC+HR with treadmill calibration were 67(42) and 69(25) kJ·day-1·kg-1 (bias non-significant), with RMSE 34 and 20 kJ·day-1·kg-1 and correlations r = 0.58 and r = 0.67, respectively. Similar results were obtained with step-calibrated and walk-calibrated models, whereas non-calibrated models were less precise (RMSE: 37 and 24 kJ·day-1·kg-1, r = 0.40 and r = 0.55). TEE models also had high validity, with biases <5%, and correlations r = 0.71 (ACC), r = 0.66–0.76 (HR), and r = 0.76–0.83 (ACC+HR). Conclusions Both accelerometry and heart rate may be used to estimate EE in adult European men and women, with improved precision if combined and if heart rate is individually calibrated. PMID:26349056

Application of acoustical methods for estimating water flow and constituent loads in Perdido Bay, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grubbs, J.W.; Pittman, J.R.

1997-01-01

Water flow and quality data were collected from December 1994 to September 1995 to evaluate variations in discharge, water quality, and chemical fluxes (loads) through Perdido Bay, Florida. Data were collected at a cross section parallel to the U.S. Highway 98 bridge. Discharges measured with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and computed from stage-area and velocity ratings varied roughly between + or - 10,000 cubic feet per second during a typical tidal cycle. Large reversals in flow direction occurred rapidly (less than 1 hour), and complete reversals (resulting in near peak net-upstream or downstream discharges) occurred within a few hours of slack water. Observations of simultaneous upstream and downstream flow (bidirectional flow) were quite common in the ADCP measurements, with opposing directions of flow occurring predominantly in vertical layers. Continuous (every 15 minutes) discharge data were computed for the period from August 18, 1995, to September 28, 1995, and filtered daily mean discharge values were computed for the period from August 19 to September 26, 1995. Data were not computed prior to August 18, 1995, either because of missing data or because the velocity rating was poorly defined (because of insufficient data) for the period prior to landfall of hurricane Erin (August 3, 1995). The results of the study indicate that acoustical techniques can yield useful estimates of continuous (instantaneous) discharge in Perdido Bay. Useful estimates of average daily net flow rates can also be obtained, but the accuracy of these estimates will be limited by small rating shifts that introduce bias into the instantaneous values that are used to compute the net flows. Instantaneous loads of total nitrogen ranged from -180 to 220 grams per second for the samples collected during the study, and instantaneous loads of total phosphorous ranged from -10 to 11 grams per second (negative loads indicate net upstream transport). The chloride concentrations from the water samples collected from Perdido Bay indicated a significant amount of mixing of saltwater and freshwater. Mixing effects could greatly reduce the accuracy of estimates of net loads of nutrients or other substances. The study results indicate that acoustical techniques can yield acceptable estimates of instantaneous loads in Perdido Bay. However, estimates of net loads should be interpreted with great caution and may have unacceptably large errors, especially when saltwater and freshwater concentrations differ greatly.

Domestication Process of the Goat Revealed by an Analysis of the Nearly Complete Mitochondrial Protein-Encoding Genes

PubMed Central

Nomura, Koh; Yonezawa, Takahiro; Mano, Shuhei; Kawakami, Shigehisa; Shedlock, Andrew M.; Hasegawa, Masami; Amano, Takashi

2013-01-01

Goats (Capra hircus) are one of the oldest domesticated species, and they are kept all over the world as an essential resource for meat, milk, and fiber. Although recent archeological and molecular biological studies suggested that they originated in West Asia, their domestication processes such as the timing of population expansion and the dynamics of their selection pressures are little known. With the aim of addressing these issues, the nearly complete mitochondrial protein-encoding genes were determined from East, Southeast, and South Asian populations. Our coalescent time estimations suggest that the timing of their major population expansions was in the Late Pleistocene and significantly predates the beginning of their domestication in the Neolithic era (≈10,000 years ago). The ω (ratio of non-synonymous rate/synonymous substitution rate) for each lineage was also estimated. We found that the ω of the globally distributed haplogroup A which is inherited by more than 90% of goats examined, turned out to be extremely low, suggesting that they are under severe selection pressure probably due to their large population size. Conversely, the ω of the Asian-specific haplogroup B inherited by about 5% of goats was relatively high. Although recent molecular studies suggest that domestication of animals may tend to relax selective constraints, the opposite pattern observed in our goat mitochondrial genome data indicates the process of domestication is more complex than may be presently appreciated and cannot be explained only by a simple relaxation model. PMID:23936295

Flow theory – goal orientation theory: positive experience is related to athlete’s goal orientation

PubMed Central

Stavrou, Nektarios A. M.; Psychountaki, Maria; Georgiadis, Emmanouil; Karteroliotis, Konstantinos; Zervas, Yannis

2015-01-01

The main purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between flow experience and goal orientation theory, as well as, the differences in flow experience based on the orthogonal model of goal orientation theory. Two hundred and seventy eight athletes completed the Task and Ego Orientation Sport Questionnaire based on how they usually feel. The challenge and skills ratings were completed 1 h before the competition, based on how they felt at the exact time of answering. In the following, the Flow State Scale-2 was completed up to 30 min after the competition they just participated, along with the challenge-skill ratings, based on how athletes felt during the competition. The results indicated that the athletes’ task orientation may be an important factor for attaining flow in competitive sport, feeling more skillful and estimating the upcoming competition as challenging, while low ego and low task oriented athletes lack these elements, which are important for them to get into flow. Additionally, not the level of task and ego orientation per se, but the balance between athletes’ goal orientation preferences seems important for the formation of flow experience, indicating that high task – high ego and high task – low ego athletes are experiencing the most positive mental state. PMID:26500577

'Real-life' study of imatinib therapy in chronic phase-chronic myeloid leukemia: A novel retrospective observational longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Merante, Serena; Ferretti, Virginia; Elena, Chiara; Calvello, Celeste; Rocca, Barbara; Zappatore, Rita; Cavigliano, Paola; Orlandi, Ester

2017-01-01

Imatinib is a cornerstone of treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia. It remains unclear whether transient treatment discontinuation or dose changes affect outcome and this approach has not yet been approved for use outside clinical trials. We conducted a retrospective single-institution observational study to evaluate factors affecting response in 'real-life' clinical practice in 138 chronic myeloid leukemia patients in chronic phase treated with imatinib. We used a novel longitudinal data analytical model, with a generalized estimating equation model, to study BCR-ABL variation according to continuous standard dose, change in dose or discontinuation; BCR-ABL transcript levels were recorded. Treatment history was subdivided into time periods for which treatment was given at constant dosage (total 483 time periods). Molecular and cytogenetic complete response was observed after 154 (32%) and 358 (74%) time periods, respectively. After adjusting for length of time period, no association between dose and cytogenetic complete response rate was observed. There was a significantly lower molecular complete response rate after time periods at a high imatinib dosage. This statistical approach can identify individual patient variation in longitudinal data collected over time and suggests that changes in dose or discontinuation of therapy could be considered in patients with appropriate biological characteristics.

Public health impact of Rotarix vaccination among commercially insured children in the United States.

PubMed

Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Kageleiry, Andrew; Korves, Caroline; Lefebvre, Patrick; Duh, Mei S

2017-09-05

This study (NCT01915888) assessed public health impact of Rotarix, GSK [RV1] vaccination. Children born between 2007-2011 were identified from Truven Commercial Claims and Encounters Databases and observed until earlier of plan disenrollment or five years old. Children receiving one or two doses of RV1 during the vaccination window were assigned to incomplete and complete vaccination cohorts, respectively. Children without rotavirus (RV) vaccination (RV1 OR RotaTeq, Merck & Co., Inc. [RV5]) were assigned to the unvaccinated cohort. Claims with International Classification of Disease 9th edition (ICD-9) codes for diarrhea and RV infections were identified. First RV episode incidence, RV-related and diarrhea-related healthcare resource utilization were compared. Multivariate Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations was used to generate 95% confidence intervals (CIs) around incidence rate ratios (IRR) between cohorts while adjusting for gender, age and calendar year. Mean costs for first RV and diarrhea episodes were calculated with adjustment for gender and birth year; bootstrapping was used to determine statistically significant differences between cohorts. Incidence of first RV episodes was significantly reduced in complete and incomplete vaccination cohorts compared to the unvaccinated cohort (IRR=0.17 [95%CI: 0.09-0.30] and IRR=0.19 [95%CI: 0.06-0.58], respectively). RV-related inpatient, outpatient and emergency room (ER) visits were significantly lower for complete vaccination versus unvaccinated cohort. Diarrhea-related inpatient and ER visit rates were significantly lower for complete vaccination versus unvaccinated cohorts; outpatient rates were similar. RV-related and diarrhea-related resource utilization rates were significantly lower or no different for incomplete vaccination versus unvaccinated cohort. Compared with unvaccinated children, adjusted mean cost for first RV episode and first diarrhea episode per 1000 persons was $11,511 (95%CI: $9855-$12,024) and $46,772 (95%CI: $26,268-$66,604) lower, respectively, for completely vaccinated children. RV1 vaccination confers benefits in reduction of RV incidence, RV- and diarrhea-related healthcare resource utilization, and RV- and diarrhea-related healthcare costs. Copyright © 2017 GlaxoSmithKline. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Information's role in the estimation of chaotic signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drake, Daniel Fred

1998-11-01

Researchers have proposed several methods designed to recover chaotic signals from noise-corrupted observations. While the methods vary, their qualitative performance does not: in low levels of noise all methods effectively recover the underlying signal; in high levels of noise no method can recover the underlying signal to any meaningful degree of accuracy. Of the methods proposed to date, all represent sub-optimal estimators. So: Is the inability to recover the signal in high noise levels simply a consequence of estimator sub-optimality? Or is estimator failure actually a manifestation of some intrinsic property of chaos itself? These questions are answered by deriving an optimal estimator for a class of chaotic systems and noting that it, too, fails in high levels of noise. An exact, closed- form expression for the estimator is obtained for a class of chaotic systems whose signals are solutions to a set of linear (but noncausal) difference equations. The existence of this linear description circumvents the difficulties normally encountered when manipulating the nonlinear (but causal) expressions that govern. chaotic behavior. The reason why even the optimal estimator fails to recover underlying chaotic signals in high levels of noise has its roots in information theory. At such noise levels, the mutual information linking the corrupted observations to the underlying signal is essentially nil, reducing the estimator to a simple guessing strategy based solely on a priori statistics. Entropy, long the common bond between information theory and dynamical systems, is actually one aspect of a far more complete characterization of information sources: the rate distortion function. Determining the rate distortion function associated with the class of chaotic systems considered in this work provides bounds on estimator performance in high levels of noise. Finally, a slight modification of the linear description leads to a method of synthesizing on limited precision platforms ``pseudo-chaotic'' sequences that mimic true chaotic behavior to any finite degree of precision and duration. The use of such a technique in spread-spectrum communications is considered.

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

The Influence of Injury Definition on Injury Burden in Preprofessional Ballet and Contemporary Dancers.

PubMed

Kenny, Sarah J; Palacios-Derflingher, Luz; Whittaker, Jackie L; Emery, Carolyn A

2018-03-01

Study Design Cohort study. Background Multiple operational definitions of injury exist in dance research. The influence that these different injury definitions have on epidemiological estimations of injury burden among dancers warrants investigation. Objective To describe the influence of injury definition on injury prevalence, incidence, and severity in preprofessional ballet and contemporary dancers. Methods Dancers registered in full-time preprofessional ballet (n = 85; 77 female; median age, 15 years; range, 11-19 years) and contemporary (n = 60; 58 female; median age, 19 years; range, 17-30 years) training completed weekly online questionnaires (modified Oslo Sports Trauma Research Centre questionnaire on health problems) using 3 injury definitions: (1) time loss (unable to complete 1 or more classes/rehearsals/performances for 1 or more days beyond onset), (2) medical attention, and (3) any complaint. Physical therapists completed injury report forms to capture dance-related medical attention and time-loss injuries. Percent agreement between injury registration methods was estimated. Injury prevalence (seasonal proportion of dancers injured), incidence rates (count of new injuries per 1000 dance-exposure hours), and severity (total days lost) were examined across each definition, registration method, and dance style. Results Questionnaire response rate was 99%. Agreement between registration methods ranged between 59% (time loss) and 74% (injury location). Depending on definition, registration, and dance style, injury prevalence ranged between 9.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.1%, 17.7%; time loss) and 82.4% (95% CI: 72.5%, 89.8%; any complaint), incidence rates between 0.1 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.2; time loss) and 4.9 (95% CI: 4.1, 5.8; any complaint) injuries per 1000 dance-hours, and days lost between 111 and 588 days. Conclusion Time-loss and medical-attention injury definitions underestimate the injury burden in preprofessional dancers. Accordingly, injury surveillance methodologies should consider more inclusive injury definitions. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2018;48(3):185-193. Epub 13 Dec 2017. doi:10.2519/jospt.2018.7542 Level of Evidence Symptom prevalence study, level 1b.

Adolescent Pregnancy, Birth, and Abortion Rates Across Countries: Levels and Recent Trends

PubMed Central

Sedgh, Gilda; Finer, Lawrence B.; Bankole, Akinrinola; Eilers, Michelle A.; Singh, Susheela

2016-01-01

Purpose To examine pregnancy rates and outcomes (births and abortions) among 15- to 19-year olds and 10- to 14-year olds in all countries for which recent information could be obtained and to examine trends since the mid-1990s. Methods Information was obtained from countries’ vital statistics reports and the United Nations Statistics Division for most countries in this study. Alternate sources of information were used if needed and available. We present estimates primarily for 2011 and compare them to estimates published for the mid-1990s. Results Among the 21 countries with complete statistics, the pregnancy rate among 15- to 19-year olds was the highest in the United States (57 pregnancies per 1,000 females) and the lowest rate was in Switzerland (8). Rates were higher in some former Soviet countries with incomplete statistics; they were the highest in Mexico and Sub-Saharan African countries with available information. Among countries with reliable evidence, the highest rate among 10- to 14-year olds was in Hungary. The proportion of teen pregnancies that ended in abortion ranged from 17% in Slovakia to 69% in Sweden. The proportion of pregnancies that ended in live births tended to be higher in countries with high teen pregnancy rates (p =.02). The pregnancy rate has declined since the mid-1990s in the majority of the 16 countries where trends could be assessed. Conclusions Despite recent declines, teen pregnancy rates remain high in many countries. Research on the planning status of these pregnancies and on factors that determine how teens resolve their pregnancies could further inform programs and policies. PMID:25620306

A Computational Framework for Analyzing Stochasticity in Gene Expression

PubMed Central

Sherman, Marc S.; Cohen, Barak A.

2014-01-01

Stochastic fluctuations in gene expression give rise to distributions of protein levels across cell populations. Despite a mounting number of theoretical models explaining stochasticity in protein expression, we lack a robust, efficient, assumption-free approach for inferring the molecular mechanisms that underlie the shape of protein distributions. Here we propose a method for inferring sets of biochemical rate constants that govern chromatin modification, transcription, translation, and RNA and protein degradation from stochasticity in protein expression. We asked whether the rates of these underlying processes can be estimated accurately from protein expression distributions, in the absence of any limiting assumptions. To do this, we (1) derived analytical solutions for the first four moments of the protein distribution, (2) found that these four moments completely capture the shape of protein distributions, and (3) developed an efficient algorithm for inferring gene expression rate constants from the moments of protein distributions. Using this algorithm we find that most protein distributions are consistent with a large number of different biochemical rate constant sets. Despite this degeneracy, the solution space of rate constants almost always informs on underlying mechanism. For example, we distinguish between regimes where transcriptional bursting occurs from regimes reflecting constitutive transcript production. Our method agrees with the current standard approach, and in the restrictive regime where the standard method operates, also identifies rate constants not previously obtainable. Even without making any assumptions we obtain estimates of individual biochemical rate constants, or meaningful ratios of rate constants, in 91% of tested cases. In some cases our method identified all of the underlying rate constants. The framework developed here will be a powerful tool for deducing the contributions of particular molecular mechanisms to specific patterns of gene expression. PMID:24811315

Completed suicide in adults of rural Kerala: rates and determinants.

PubMed

Sauvaget, C; Ramadas, K; Fayette, J M; Thomas, G; Thara, S; Sankaranarayanan, R

2009-01-01

India has witnessed a dramatic increase in suicide rates during the past few decades. The southern state of Kerala has been reporting the highest rates of suicide. Since suicide rates are estimated from death registries, they are likely to be under-reported because the civil registration system is incomplete and suicide deaths are poorly reported. A cohort of 132 000 participants (age 35 years and above) in Thiruvananthapuram (erstwhile Trivandrum) district, Kerala was followed up for mortality from 1996 to 2005, after having filled-in a lifestyle questionnaire at baseline. The cause of death was based on verbal autopsy. Suicide methods were recorded and rates were estimated, and suicide risks were calculated according to several socioeconomic factors. During the follow up period, a total of 11 608 deaths, of which 385 were suicides (3.3% of total deaths), were registered. The overall suicide rate was 39.3/100 000 person-years among adults 35-90 years of age (men: 78/ 100000; women: 16.5/100000). The predominant methods of suicide were hanging, followed by poisoning and drowning. The suicide determinants were male gender, middle-age (40-60 years), Hindu, alcohol drinkers and secondary education level (< or = 7 years). Neither low socioeconomic level, living alone, nor being a married woman was associated with suicide risk. Suicide rates were consistent with the official rates of Thiruvananthapuram district (37/100 000). However, our study population did not include the 14-34-year-old age-group which represents more than 37% of all suicides and hence it is more likely that the official rates are under-reported. Determinants of suicide were in line with previous studies.

Forest extent and deforestation in tropical Africa since 1900.

PubMed

Aleman, Julie C; Jarzyna, Marta A; Staver, A Carla

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of historical forest extent and associated deforestation rates are crucial for quantifying tropical carbon cycles and formulating conservation policy. In Africa, data-driven estimates of historical closed-canopy forest extent and deforestation at the continental scale are lacking, and existing modelled estimates diverge substantially. Here, we synthesize available palaeo-proxies and historical maps to reconstruct forest extent in tropical Africa around 1900, when European colonization accelerated markedly, and compare these historical estimates with modern forest extent to estimate deforestation. We find that forests were less extensive in 1900 than bioclimatic models predict. Resultantly, across tropical Africa, ~ 21.7% of forests have been deforested, yielding substantially slower deforestation than previous estimates (35-55%). However, deforestation was heterogeneous: West and East African forests have undergone almost complete decline (~ 83.3 and 93.0%, respectively), while Central African forests have expanded at the expense of savannahs (~ 1.4% net forest expansion, with ~ 135,270 km 2 of savannahs encroached). These results suggest that climate alone does not determine savannah and forest distributions and that many savannahs hitherto considered to be degraded forests are instead relatively old. These data-driven reconstructions of historical biome distributions will inform tropical carbon cycle estimates, carbon mitigation initiatives and conservation planning in both forest and savannah systems.

Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates of rise are continuously increasing. Analysis of the a global tide-gauge record (Church and White, 2011) indicated that the rate of sea-level rise increased continuously since 1880AD and is currently 2.57mm/yr (95% credible interval of 1.71 to 4.35mm/yr). Application of the model a proxy reconstruction from North Carolina (Kemp et al., 2011) indicated that the mean rate of rise in this locality since the middle of the 19th century (current rate of 2.66 mm/yr with a 95% credible interval of 1.29 to 4.59mm/yr) is in agreement with results from the tide gauge analysis and is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.

Determinants of job turnover of young men and women in the United States: a hazard rate analysis.

PubMed

Donohue, J J

1988-01-01

Hazard models were used to examine the expected job tenure of male and female entrants to the full-time labor force after they appear to have completed their full-time education. Other analysts who have examined the relative quit rates of men and women have not limited their analyses to the 1st job, but they have implicitly assumed that hazard rates from 1st jobs are completely representative of hazard rates from any random nth job. This is 1 of the most important and questionable aspects of their implicit assumption that job terminations can be treated in semi-Markov processes. The basic goal is to analyze the hazard rates for a set of workers who have in some sense terminated their primary tie to education and have shifted toward a primary commitment to the labor force. The compilation of the durations of 1st full-time (20 or more hours/week) jobs yielded a sample of 1431 men and 1527 women. Female workers on average had about a half-year less education than the men: 12.47 years compared to 12.89 years. The percentage of workers with less than a high school education was similar for men (18.1%) and women (18.6%). The percentage of workers with 18 or more years of education was almost 6 times as high for men as for women: 2.73% versus 0.46%. The racial composition of the sample reflected the higher labor force participation rates of black women over white women. For the male sample, 73.2% of the workers were white and 25.7% were black. For the female sample, 70.7% were white and 28.3% were black. For the period 1968-71, female full-time workers quit their 1st job after completing school at substantially higher rates than male workers. This finding was robust to several different model specifications and selection criteria, as well as to estimations with and without duration dependence and with and without corrections for unobserved heterogeneity. While changes were not marked, increasing the definition of full-time employment from 20-30 hours reduced overall quit rates and tended to widen the tenure gap between men and women workers. Treating layoffs as completed spells of work raised overall quit rates and tended to narrow slightly the male-female tenure differential. Also contrary to the other microdata studies, the following were among the results: increased education had a significant and negative effect on quitting for both men and women; the unemployment rate had a significant, negative effect on quit rates for men; the hazard rates for women did not decline monotonically with duration but increased sharply after 18 months; and nonwhites did not have lower rates than whites.

Evaluation of Pictorial Dietary Assessment Tool for Hospitalized Patients with Diabetes: Cost, Accuracy, and User Satisfaction Analysis

PubMed Central

Shahar, Suzana; Abdul Manaf, Zahara; Mohd Nordin, Nor Azlin; Susetyowati, Susetyowati

2017-01-01

Although nutritional screening and dietary monitoring in clinical settings are important, studies on related user satisfaction and cost benefit are still lacking. This study aimed to: (1) elucidate the cost of implementing a newly developed dietary monitoring tool, the Pictorial Dietary Assessment Tool (PDAT); and (2) investigate the accuracy of estimation and satisfaction of healthcare staff after the use of the PDAT. A cross-over intervention study was conducted among 132 hospitalized patients with diabetes. Cost and time for the implementation of PDAT in comparison to modified Comstock was estimated using the activity-based costing approach. Accuracy was expressed as the percentages of energy and protein obtained by both methods, which were within 15% and 30%, respectively, of those obtained by the food weighing. Satisfaction of healthcare staff was measured using a standardized questionnaire. Time to complete the food intake recording of patients using PDAT (2.31 ± 0.70 min) was shorter than when modified Comstock (3.53 ± 1.27 min) was used (p < 0.001). Overall cost per patient was slightly higher for PDAT (United States Dollar 0.27 ± 0.02) than for modified Comstock (USD 0.26 ± 0.04 (p < 0.05)). The accuracy of energy intake estimated by modified Comstock was 10% lower than that of PDAT. There was poorer accuracy of protein intake estimated by modified Comstock (<40%) compared to that estimated by the PDAT (>71%) (p < 0.05). Mean user satisfaction of healthcare staff was significantly higher for PDAT than that for modified Comstock (p < 0.05). PDAT requires a shorter time to be completed and was rated better than modified Comstock. PMID:29283401

Influence of catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression on in-hospital opioid consumption, pain, and quality of recovery after adult spine surgery

PubMed Central

Dunn, Lauren K.; Durieux, Marcel E.; Fernández, Lucas G.; Tsang, Siny; Smith-Straesser, Emily E.; Jhaveri, Hasan F.; Spanos, Shauna P.; Thames, Matthew R.; Spencer, Christopher D.; Lloyd, Aaron; Stuart, Russell; Ye, Fan; Bray, Jacob P.; Nemergut, Edward C.; Naik, Bhiken I.

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE Perception of perioperative pain is influenced by various psychological factors. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression on in-hospital opioid consumption, pain scores, and quality of recovery in adults who underwent spine surgery. METHODS Patients undergoing spine surgery were enrolled in this study, and the preoperatively completed questionnaires included the verbal rating scale (VRS), Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Quality of recovery was assessed using the 40-item Quality of Recovery questionnaire (QoR40). Opioid consumption and pain scores according to the VRS were recorded daily until discharge. RESULTS One hundred thirty-nine patients were recruited for the study, and 101 completed the QoR40 assessment postoperatively. Patients with higher catastrophizing scores were more likely to have higher maximum pain scores postoperatively (estimate: 0.03, SE: 0.01, p = 0.02), without increased opioid use (estimate: 0.44, SE: 0.27, p = 0.11). Preoperative anxiety (estimate: 1.18, SE: 0.65, p = 0.07) and depression scores (estimate: 1.06, SE: 0.71, p = 0.14) did not correlate with increased postoperative opioid use; however, patients with higher preoperative depression scores had lower quality of recovery after surgery (estimate: −1.9, SE: 0.56, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression play important roles in modulating postoperative pain. Preoperative evaluation of these factors, utilizing a validated tool, helps to identify patients at risk. This might allow for earlier psychological intervention that could reduce pain severity and improve the quality of recovery. PMID:29125426

The minimal clinically important difference of six-minute walk in Asian older adults.

PubMed

Kwok, Boon Chong; Pua, Yong Hao; Mamun, Kaysar; Wong, Wai Pong

2013-03-06

Rehabilitation interventions promote functional recovery among frail older adults and little is known about the clinical significance of physical outcome measure changes. The purpose of our study is to examine the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) for the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) among frail Asian older adults. Data from the "Evaluation of the Frails' Fall Efficacy by Comparing Treatments" study were analyzed. Distribution-based and anchor-based methods were used to estimate the MCID of the 6MWD. Participants who completed the trial rated their perceived change of overall health on the Global Rating of Change (GROC) scale. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to analyze the sensitivity and specificity of the cut-off values of 6MWD (in meters) for GROC rating of "a little bit better" (+2), based on feedback from participants. The mean (SD) change in 6MWD was 37.3(46.2) m among those who perceived a change (GROC ≥ 2), while those who did not was 9.3(18.2) m post-intervention (P = 0.011). From the anchor-based method, the MCID value for the 6MWD was 17.8 m (sensitivity 56.7% and specificity 83.3%) while distribution-based method estimated 12.9 m. The MCID estimate for 6MWD was 17.8 m in the moderately frail Asian older adults with a fear of falling. The results will aid the clinicians in goal setting for this patient population.

Cost savings from reduced catheter-related bloodstream infection after simulation-based education for residents in a medical intensive care unit.

PubMed

Cohen, Elaine R; Feinglass, Joe; Barsuk, Jeffrey H; Barnard, Cynthia; O'Donnell, Anna; McGaghie, William C; Wayne, Diane B

2010-04-01

Interventions to reduce preventable complications such as catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSI) can also decrease hospital costs. However, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of simulation-based education. The aim of this study was to estimate hospital cost savings related to a reduction in CRBSI after simulation training for residents. This was an intervention evaluation study estimating cost savings related to a simulation-based intervention in central venous catheter (CVC) insertion in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) at an urban teaching hospital. After residents completed a simulation-based mastery learning program in CVC insertion, CRBSI rates declined sharply. Case-control and regression analysis methods were used to estimate savings by comparing CRBSI rates in the year before and after the intervention. Annual savings from reduced CRBSIs were compared with the annual cost of simulation training. Approximately 9.95 CRBSIs were prevented among MICU patients with CVCs in the year after the intervention. Incremental costs attributed to each CRBSI were approximately $82,000 in 2008 dollars and 14 additional hospital days (including 12 MICU days). The annual cost of the simulation-based education was approximately $112,000. Net annual savings were thus greater than $700,000, a 7 to 1 rate of return on the simulation training intervention. A simulation-based educational intervention in CVC insertion was highly cost-effective. These results suggest that investment in simulation training can produce significant medical care cost savings.

Size and performance of anoxic limestone drains to neutralize acdic mine drainagei

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cravotta, C.A.

2003-01-01

Acidic mine drainage (AMD) can be neutralized effectively in underground, anoxic limestone drains (ALDs). Owing to reaction between the AMD and limestone (CaCO3), the pH and concentrations of alkalinity and calcium increase asymptotically with detention time in the ALD, while concentrations of sulfate, ferrous iron, and manganese typically are unaffected. This paper introduces a method to predict the alkalinity produced within an ALD and to estimate the mass of limestone required for its construction on the basis of data from short-term, closed-container (cubitainer) tests. The cubitainer tests, which used an initial mass of 4 kg crushed limestone completely inundated with 2.8 L AMD, were conducted for 11 to 16 d and provided estimates for the initial and maximum alkalinities and corresponding rates of alkalinity production and limestone dissolution. Long-term (5-11 yr) data for alkalinity and CaCO3 flux at the Howe Bridge, Morrison, and Buck Mountain ALDs in Pennsylvania, USA, indicate that rates of alkalinity production and limestone dissolution under field conditions were comparable with those in cubitainers filled with limestone and AMD from each site. The alkalinity of effluent and intermediate samples along the flow path through the ALDs and long-term trends in the residual mass of limestone and the effluent alkalinity were estimated as a function of the computed detention time within the ALD and second-order dissolution rate models for cubitainer tests. Thus, cubitainer tests can be a useful tool for designing ALDs and predicting their performance.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Hogg, David W.; Morton, Timothy D., E-mail: danfm@nyu.edu

No true extrasolar Earth analog is known. Hundreds of planets have been found around Sun-like stars that are either Earth-sized but on shorter periods, or else on year-long orbits but somewhat larger. Under strong assumptions, exoplanet catalogs have been used to make an extrapolated estimate of the rate at which Sun-like stars host Earth analogs. These studies are complicated by the fact that every catalog is censored by non-trivial selection effects and detection efficiencies, and every property (period, radius, etc.) is measured noisily. Here we present a general hierarchical probabilistic framework for making justified inferences about the population of exoplanets,more » taking into account survey completeness and, for the first time, observational uncertainties. We are able to make fewer assumptions about the distribution than previous studies; we only require that the occurrence rate density be a smooth function of period and radius (employing a Gaussian process). By applying our method to synthetic catalogs, we demonstrate that it produces more accurate estimates of the whole population than standard procedures based on weighting by inverse detection efficiency. We apply the method to an existing catalog of small planet candidates around G dwarf stars. We confirm a previous result that the radius distribution changes slope near Earth's radius. We find that the rate density of Earth analogs is about 0.02 (per star per natural logarithmic bin in period and radius) with large uncertainty. This number is much smaller than previous estimates made with the same data but stronger assumptions.« less

Patient-Reported Functional Status in Outpatients With Advanced Cancer: Correlation With Physician-Reported Scores and Survival.

PubMed

Popovic, Gordana; Harhara, Thana; Pope, Ashley; Al-Awamer, Ahmed; Banerjee, Subrata; Bryson, John; Mak, Ernie; Lau, Jenny; Hannon, Breffni; Swami, Nadia; Le, Lisa W; Zimmermann, Camilla

2018-06-01

Performance status measures are increasingly completed by patients in outpatient cancer settings, but are not well validated for this use. We assessed performance of a patient-reported functional status measure (PRFS, based on the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group [ECOG]), compared with the physician-completed ECOG, in terms of agreement in ratings and prediction of survival. Patients and physicians independently completed five-point PRFS (lay version of ECOG) and ECOG measures on first consultation at an oncology palliative care clinic. We assessed agreement between PRFS and ECOG using weighted Kappa statistics, and used linear regression to determine factors associated with the difference between PRFS and ECOG ratings. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate the patients' median survival, categorized by PRFS and ECOG, and assessed predictive accuracy of these measures using the C-statistic. For the 949 patients, there was moderate agreement between PRFS and ECOG (weighted Kappa 0.32; 95% CI: 0.28-0.36). On average, patients' ratings of performance status were worse by 0.31 points (95% CI: 0.25-0.37, P < 0.0001); this tendency was greater for younger patients (P = 0.002) and those with worse symptoms (P < 0.0001). Both PRFS and ECOG scores correlated well with overall survival; the C-statistic was higher for the average of PRFS and ECOG scores (0.619) than when reported individually (0.596 and 0.604, respectively). Patients tend to rate their performance status worse than physicians, particularly if they are younger or have greater symptom burden. Prognostic ability of performance status could be improved by using the average of patients and physician scores. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disappearance of Renal Cysts Included in Ice Ball During Cryoablation of Renal-Cell Carcinoma: A Potential Therapy for Symptomatic Renal Cysts?

PubMed

Yodoya, Mitsuko; Hiraki, Takao; Iguchi, Toshihiro; Fujiwara, Hiroyasu; Matsui, Yusuke; Masaoka, Yoshihisa; Sakurai, Jun; Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu; Gobara, Hideo; Kanazawa, Susumu

2017-06-01

To retrospectively evaluate the effect of cryoablation of renal-cell carcinoma on nearby renal cysts with the goal to investigate the potential for an alternative therapy to treat symptomatic renal cysts. The study population comprised 46 cysts (mean size, 12 mm; range, 5-43 mm) that were within or near the ice ball during cryoablation in 22 patients. Size change of each cyst was evaluated via enhanced CT or MR imaging before and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after cryoablation. Forty-one cysts were also followed after 12 months. Variables including positional relationship between the cyst and the ice ball were evaluated via linear regression analysis using generalized estimating equation models to determine which factors affected cyst shrinkage rate at 12 months. Fifteen, 12, and 19 cysts were completely included in, partially included in, or excluded from the ice ball, respectively. The overall shrinkage rate was 62%, and 57% of cysts (26 of 46) had disappeared at 12 months. Only the relationship between the cyst and the ice ball was significantly (P < .001) associated with cyst shrinkage rate. Cyst disappearance rates at 12 months were 100% (15 of 15), 67% (8 of 12), and 16% (3 of 19) for cysts completely included, partially included, and excluded from the ice ball, respectively. Among the 22 cysts that disappeared at 12 months and continued to be followed, none recurred after 12 months. All renal cysts that were completely included in the ice ball disappeared after cryoablation, demonstrating the potential utility of cryoablation as an alternative therapy for symptomatic renal cysts. Copyright © 2017 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Concurrent IMRT and weekly cisplatin followed by GDP chemotherapy in newly diagnosed, stage IE to IIE, nasal, extranodal NK/T-Cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Ke, Q-H; Zhou, S-Q; Du, W; Liang, G; Lei, Y; Luo, F

2014-12-12

On the basis of the benefits of frontline radiation in early-stage, extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL), we conducted the trial of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) followed by three cycles of gemcitabine, dexamethasone and cisplatin (GDP). Thirty-two patients with newly diagnosed, stage IE to IIE, nasal ENKTL received CCRT (that is, all patients received intensity-modulated radiotherapy 56 Gy and cisplatin 30 mg/m(2) weekly, 3-5 weeks). Three cycles of GDP (gemcitabine 1000 mg/m(2) intravenously (i.v.) on days 1 and 8, dexamethasone 40 mg orally on days 1-4 and cisplatin 75 mg/m(2) i.v. on day 1 (GDP), every 21 days as an outpatient were scheduled after CCRT. All patients completed CCRT, which resulted in 100% response that included 24 complete responses (CRs) and eight partial responses. The CR rate after CCRT was 75.0% (that is, 24 of 32 responses). Twenty-eight of the 32 patients completed the planned three cycles of GDP, whereas four patients did not because they withdrew (n = 1) or because they had an infection (n = 3). The overall response rate and the CR rate were 90.6% (that is, 29 of 32 responses) and 84.4% (that is, 27 of 32 responses), respectively. Only two patient experienced grade 3 toxicity during CCRT (nausea), whereas 13 of the 30 patients experienced grade 4 neutropenia. The estimated 3-year overall survival and progression-free rates were 87.50% and 84.38%, respectively. In conclusion, CCRT followed by GDP chemotherapy can be a feasible and effective treatment strategy for stage IE to IIE nasal ENKTL.

Equity and geography: the case of child mortality in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Bauze, Anna E; Tran, Linda N; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Firth, Sonja; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Hodge, Andrew; Lopez, Alan D

2012-01-01

Recent assessments show continued decline in child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), yet complete subnational analyses remain rare. This study aims to estimate under-five mortality in PNG at national and subnational levels to examine the importance of geographical inequities in health outcomes and track progress towards Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4. We performed retrospective data validation of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2006 using 2000 Census data, then applied advanced indirect methods to estimate under-five mortality rates between 1976 and 2000. The DHS 2006 was found to be unreliable. Hence we used the 2000 Census to estimate under-five mortality rates at national and subnational levels. During the period under study, PNG experienced a slow reduction in national under-five mortality from approximately 103 to 78 deaths per 1,000 live births. Subnational analyses revealed significant disparities between rural and urban populations as well as inter- and intra-regional variations. Some of the provinces that performed the best (worst) in terms of under-five mortality included the districts that performed worst (best), with district-level under-five mortality rates correlating strongly with poverty levels and access to services. The evidence from PNG demonstrates substantial within-province heterogeneity, suggesting that under-five mortality needs to be addressed at subnational levels. This is especially relevant in countries, like PNG, where responsibility for health services is devolved to provinces and districts. This study presents the first comprehensive estimates of under-five mortality at the district level for PNG. The results demonstrate that for countries that rely on few data sources even greater importance must be given to the quality of future population surveys and to the exploration of alternative options of birth and death surveillance.

Can large surveys conducted on highly selected populations provide valid information on the epidemiology of common health conditions? An analysis of UK Biobank data on musculoskeletal pain

PubMed Central

Macfarlane, Gary J; Beasley, Marcus; Smith, Blair H; Jones, Gareth T; Macfarlane, Tatiana V

2015-01-01

Introduction: Biobank-type studies are typically large but have very low participation rates. It has been suggested that these studies may provide biased estimates of prevalence but are likely to provide valid estimates of association. We test these hypotheses using data collected on pain in a large Biobank study in the United Kingdom. Methods: UK Biobank recruited 503,325 persons aged 40–69 years (participation rate 5.5%). Participants completed questionnaires, including pain, lifestyle and environment factors. As a comparison, we used both a large population study of pain (MUSICIAN: n = 8847, aged: 40–69 years) conducted 2008–2009 and the National Child Development study (NCDS) which recruited all persons in Great Britain born during one week of 1958 and followed them up at age 44 years (n = 9377). Results: ‘Any pain’ (UK Biobank 61.0%; MUSICIAN 63.9%), chronic pain (42.9%, 52.2%) and site-specific musculoskeletal pain (back 26.2%, 29.7%; shoulder/neck 23.3%, 25.3%) were generally similar in UK Biobank and MUSICIAN. The prevalence of chronic pain and most regional musculoskeletal pains in UK Biobank were all within 2% of that in NCDS. Conclusion: UK Biobank has provided estimates of the prevalence of pain which are similar to those from previous large-scale studies, although a formal comparison of the estimates cannot be made. It has also confirmed known associations with the reporting of pain. Despite its very low participation rate, such a study provides the opportunity to investigate novel exposure–pain relationships and investigate rarer exposures and characteristics to further our knowledge of the epidemiology of pain. PMID:26526341

Statistical controversies in clinical research: building the bridge to phase II-efficacy estimation in dose-expansion cohorts.

PubMed

Boonstra, P S; Braun, T M; Taylor, J M G; Kidwell, K M; Bellile, E L; Daignault, S; Zhao, L; Griffith, K A; Lawrence, T S; Kalemkerian, G P; Schipper, M J

2017-07-01

Regulatory agencies and others have expressed concern about the uncritical use of dose expansion cohorts (DECs) in phase I oncology trials. Nonetheless, by several metrics-prevalence, size, and number-their popularity is increasing. Although early efficacy estimation in defined populations is a common primary endpoint of DECs, the types of designs best equipped to identify efficacy signals have not been established. We conducted a simulation study of six phase I design templates with multiple DECs: three dose-assignment/adjustment mechanisms multiplied by two analytic approaches for estimating efficacy after the trial is complete. We also investigated the effect of sample size and interim futility analysis on trial performance. Identifying populations in which the treatment is efficacious (true positives) and weeding out inefficacious treatment/populations (true negatives) are competing goals in these trials. Thus, we estimated true and false positive rates for each design. Adaptively updating the MTD during the DEC improved true positive rates by 8-43% compared with fixing the dose during the DEC phase while maintaining false positive rates. Inclusion of an interim futility analysis decreased the number of patients treated under inefficacious DECs without hurting performance. A substantial gain in efficiency is obtainable using a design template that statistically models toxicity and efficacy against dose level during expansion. Design choices for dose expansion should be motivated by and based upon expected performance. Similar to the common practice in single-arm phase II trials, cohort sample sizes should be justified with respect to their primary aim and include interim analyses to allow for early stopping. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Radiochemotherapy in Anal Cancer: cCR, clinical outcomes and quality of life using two different treatment schedules

PubMed Central

Di Santo, Sara; Trignani, Marianna; Neri, Matteo; Milano, Angelo; Innocenti, Paolo; Taraborrelli, Maria; Augurio, Antonietta; Vinciguerra, Annamaria; Di Tommaso, Monica; Ursini, Lucia Anna; Di Pilla, Angelo; Di Nicola, Marta; Genovesi, Domenico

2014-01-01

Aim Main endpoint was a response rate to therapy; secondary endpoints were disease-free survival, overall survival, acute and late toxicities, specially in terms of anorectal and urinary continence. Background Radiochemotherapy for anal cancer achieves a good clinical response, locoregional control, anal function preservation. However, oncologic outcomes can differ using radiotherapy plus fluorouracil and mytomicin vs. cisplatin and fluorouracil. Methods Between 2000 and 2012, 27 anal cancer patients receiving radiotherapy combined with two different radiochemotherapy schedules, fluorouracil and mytomicin (group A) and cisplatin plus fluorouracil (group B). The Kaplan–Meier method was also used to estimate local control, overall survival and disease free survival. Statistical significance between curves was evaluated using the Log-rank test. Results Complete pathological response was found in 85.2% of patients, with higher rates of response in the group A (100% vs. 63.6%, p = 0.039). No significantly difference was found between the two groups for the other endpoints. Low rates of both acute and late toxicities were recorded. Conclusion Radiotherapy plus fluorouracil and mytomicin provide a better complete pathological response than radiotherapy plus cisplatin and fluorouracil and a greater rate of anal sphincter function preservation. Globally, radiochemotherapy of the anal cancer provides excellent clinical outcomes with a good profile of acute and late toxicity, without difference between the two groups studied. PMID:25859401

A Novel Approach to Practice-Based Learning and Improvement Using a Web-Based Audit and Feedback Module.

PubMed

Boggan, Joel C; Cheely, George; Shah, Bimal R; Heffelfinger, Randy; Springall, Deanna; Thomas, Samantha M; Zaas, Aimee; Bae, Jonathan

2014-09-01

Systematically engaging residents in large programs in quality improvement (QI) is challenging. To coordinate a shared QI project in a large residency program using an online tool. A web-based QI tool guided residents through a 2-phase evaluation of performance of foot examinations in patients with diabetes. In phase 1, residents completed reviews of health records with online data entry. Residents were then presented with personal performance data relative to peers and were prompted to develop improvement plans. In phase 2, residents again reviewed personal performance. Rates of performance were compared at the program and clinic levels for each phase, with data presented for residents. Acceptability was measured by the number of residents completing each phase. Feasibility was measured by estimated faculty, programmer, and administrator time and costs. Seventy-nine of 86 eligible residents (92%) completed improvement plans and reviewed 1471 patients in phase 1, whereas 68 residents (79%) reviewed 1054 patient charts in phase 2. Rates of performance of examination increased significantly between phases (from 52% to 73% for complete examination, P < .001). Development of the tool required 130 hours of programmer time. Project analysis and management required 6 hours of administrator and faculty time monthly. An online tool developed and implemented for program-wide QI initiatives successfully engaged residents to participate in QI activities. Residents using this tool demonstrated improvement in a selected quality target. This tool could be adapted by other graduate medical education programs or for faculty development.

Reduction of Portion Size and Eating Rate Is Associated with BMI-SDS Reduction in Overweight and Obese Children and Adolescents: Results on Eating and Nutrition Behaviour from the Observational KgAS Study.

PubMed

Torbahn, Gabriel; Gellhaus, Ines; Koch, Benjamin; von Kries, Rüdiger; Obermeier, Viola; Holl, Reinhard W; Fink, Katharina; van Egmond-Fröhlich, Andreas

2017-01-01

Treatment of paediatric obesity focuses on changes of nutrition and eating behaviour and physical activity. The evaluation of the patient education programme by KgAS was utilised to analyse the association of changes of portion size, eating rate and dietary habits with BMI-SDS reductions. Patients (n = 297) were examined at the beginning and at the end of treatment and after 1-year follow-up at different out-patient centres. Their parents completed questionnaires including estimation of children's portion size, eating rate and frequency of food intake. Associations of 1- and 2-year changes in BMI-SDS and behaviour were calculated for patients with complete data in BMI-SDS, portion size, eating rate, frequency of green, yellow and red food intake (n = 131) by multiple linear regression models. Significant changes were found in the desired direction for BMI-SDS, portion size, eating rate and the intake of unfavourable red food items both after 1 and 2 years as well as for the consumption of favourable green food items after 1 year. Significant positive associations with BMI-SDS reduction after 1 and 2 years were detected for portion size (Cohen's f2 0.13 and 0.09) and eating rate (Cohen's f2 0.20 and 0.10), respectively. Reduced portion sizes and eating rates are associated with BMI-SDS reduction after 1 and 2 years. These findings suggest to focus on appropriate portion sizes and reduced eating rates in patient education programmes. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

The 25 parsec local white dwarf population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holberg, J. B.; Oswalt, T. D.; Sion, E. M.; McCook, G. P.

2016-11-01

We have extended our detailed survey of the local white dwarf population from 20 to 25 pc, effectively doubling the sample volume, which now includes 232 stars. In the process, new stars within 20 pc have been added, a more uniform set of distance estimates as well as improved spectral and binary classifications are available. The present 25 pc sample is estimated to be about 68 per cent complete (the corresponding 20 pc sample is now 86 per cent complete). The space density of white dwarfs is unchanged at 4.8 ± 0.5 × 10-3 pc-3. This new study includes a white dwarf mass distribution and luminosity function based on the 232 stars in the 25 pc sample. We find a significant excess of single stars over systems containing one or more companions (74 per cent versus 26 per cent). This suggests mechanisms that result in the loss of companions during binary system evolution. In addition, this updated sample exhibits a pronounced deficiency of nearby `Sirius-like' systems. 11 such systems were found within the 20 pc volume versus only one additional system found in the volume between 20 and 25 pc. An estimate of white dwarf birth rates during the last ˜8 Gyr is derived from individual remnant cooling ages. A discussion of likely ways new members of the local sample may be found is provided.

Completeness of hepatitis, brucellosis, syphilis, measles and HIV/AIDS surveillance in Izmir, Turkey.

PubMed

Durusoy, Raika; Karababa, Ali O

2010-02-17

According to the surveillance system in Turkey, most diseases are notified only by clinicians, without involving laboratory notification. It is assumed that a considerable inadequacy in notifications exists; however, this has not been quantified by any researcher. Our aim was to evaluate the completeness of communicable disease surveillance in the province of Izmir, Turkey for the year of 2003 by means of estimating the incidences of diseases. Data on positive laboratory results for the notifiable and serologically detectable diseases hepatitis A, B, C, brucellosis, syphilis, measles and HIV detected in 2003 in Izmir (population 3.5 million) were collected from serology laboratories according to WHO surveillance standards and compared to the notifications received by the Provincial Health Directorate. Data were checked for duplicates and matched. Incidences were estimated with the capture-recapture method. Sensitivities of both notifications and laboratory data were calculated according to these estimates. Among laboratories performing serologic tests (n = 158) in Izmir, 84.2% accepted to participate, from which 23,515 positive results were collected. Following the elimination of duplicate results as well as of cases residing outside of Izmir, the total number was 11,402. The total number of notifications was 1802. Notification rates of cases found in laboratories were 31.6% for hepatitis A, 12.1% for acute hepatitis B, 31.8% for brucellosis, 25.9% for syphilis and 100% for HIV confirmation. It was discovered that for hepatitis A, B, C, brucellosis and syphilis, there is a considerable under-notification by clinicians and that laboratory data has the potential of contributing greatly to their surveillance. The inclusion of laboratories in the surveillance system of these diseases could help to achieve completeness of reporting.

Estimation of State Transition Probabilities: A Neural Network Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Hiroshi; Takiyama, Ken; Okada, Masato

2015-12-01

Humans and animals can predict future states on the basis of acquired knowledge. This prediction of the state transition is important for choosing the best action, and the prediction is only possible if the state transition probability has already been learned. However, how our brains learn the state transition probability is unknown. Here, we propose a simple algorithm for estimating the state transition probability by utilizing the state prediction error. We analytically and numerically confirmed that our algorithm is able to learn the probability completely with an appropriate learning rate. Furthermore, our learning rule reproduced experimentally reported psychometric functions and neural activities in the lateral intraparietal area in a decision-making task. Thus, our algorithm might describe the manner in which our brains learn state transition probabilities and predict future states.

Effective gene prediction by high resolution frequency estimator based on least-norm solution technique

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Linear algebraic concept of subspace plays a significant role in the recent techniques of spectrum estimation. In this article, the authors have utilized the noise subspace concept for finding hidden periodicities in DNA sequence. With the vast growth of genomic sequences, the demand to identify accurately the protein-coding regions in DNA is increasingly rising. Several techniques of DNA feature extraction which involves various cross fields have come up in the recent past, among which application of digital signal processing tools is of prime importance. It is known that coding segments have a 3-base periodicity, while non-coding regions do not have this unique feature. One of the most important spectrum analysis techniques based on the concept of subspace is the least-norm method. The least-norm estimator developed in this paper shows sharp period-3 peaks in coding regions completely eliminating background noise. Comparison of proposed method with existing sliding discrete Fourier transform (SDFT) method popularly known as modified periodogram method has been drawn on several genes from various organisms and the results show that the proposed method has better as well as an effective approach towards gene prediction. Resolution, quality factor, sensitivity, specificity, miss rate, and wrong rate are used to establish superiority of least-norm gene prediction method over existing method. PMID:24386895

A Fast Approximate Algorithm for Mapping Long Reads to Large Reference Databases.

PubMed

Jain, Chirag; Dilthey, Alexander; Koren, Sergey; Aluru, Srinivas; Phillippy, Adam M

2018-04-30

Emerging single-molecule sequencing technologies from Pacific Biosciences and Oxford Nanopore have revived interest in long-read mapping algorithms. Alignment-based seed-and-extend methods demonstrate good accuracy, but face limited scalability, while faster alignment-free methods typically trade decreased precision for efficiency. In this article, we combine a fast approximate read mapping algorithm based on minimizers with a novel MinHash identity estimation technique to achieve both scalability and precision. In contrast to prior methods, we develop a mathematical framework that defines the types of mapping targets we uncover, establish probabilistic estimates of p-value and sensitivity, and demonstrate tolerance for alignment error rates up to 20%. With this framework, our algorithm automatically adapts to different minimum length and identity requirements and provides both positional and identity estimates for each mapping reported. For mapping human PacBio reads to the hg38 reference, our method is 290 × faster than Burrows-Wheeler Aligner-MEM with a lower memory footprint and recall rate of 96%. We further demonstrate the scalability of our method by mapping noisy PacBio reads (each ≥5 kbp in length) to the complete NCBI RefSeq database containing 838 Gbp of sequence and >60,000 genomes.

Assessment of Agricultural Water Management in Punjab, India using Bayesian Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Sidhu, R.

2013-12-01

The success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India is threatened by the declining water table (approx. 1 m/yr). Punjab, a major agricultural supplier for the rest of India, supports irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. Groundwater development in many districts is greater than 200% the annual recharge rate. The hydrologic data required to complete a mass-balance model are not available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements. Using the known values of precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we solve for each unknown parameter (often a coefficient) using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Results provide regional estimates of irrigation requirements and groundwater recharge rates under observed climate conditions (1972 to 2002). Model results are used to estimate future water availability and demand to help inform agriculture management decisions under projected climate conditions. We find that changing cropping patterns for the region can maintain food production while balancing groundwater pumping with natural recharge. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where agricultural water management is required to resolve competition between food security and changing resource availability.

Summary of the Impact of the Inclusion of Mobile Phone Numbers into the NSW Population Health Survey in 2012.

PubMed

Barr, Margo; Ferguson, Raymond; van Ritten, Jason; Hughes, Phil; Steel, David

2015-01-01

Although it was estimated that 20% of the population in Australia were mobile-only phone users in 2010, the inclusion of mobile numbers into computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) behavioural risk factor surveys did not occur until 2012. Three papers have been published describing the methods, weighting strategy and the impact in detail of including mobile numbers into the NSW Population Health Survey (NSWPHS). This paper identifies the important components of those papers and summarises them for a broader audience. In the 2012 NSWPHS, 15,214 (15,149 with weights) interviews were completed (64% landline frame; 36% mobile frame). Response, cooperation and contact rates were 37%, 65% and 69% respectively. The inclusion of mobile phone numbers resulted in a sample that was closer to the NSW population profile and impacted on the time series of estimates for alcohol drinking, recommended fruit consumption, current smoking, and overweight or obesity. The papers found that including mobile phone numbers into NSWPHS did not impact negatively on response rates or data collection, but it did cost more and affect the time series for some behavioural risk factors, in that it corrected the estimates that had been produced from a sample frame that was progressively getting less representative of the population.

Surface Modification and Surface - Subsurface Exchange Processes on Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, Cynthia B.; Molaro, Jamie; Hand, Kevin P.

2017-10-01

The surface of Jupiter’s moon Europa is modified by exogenic processes such as sputtering, gardening, radiolysis, sulfur ion implantation, and thermal processing, as well as endogenic processes including tidal shaking, mass wasting, and the effects of subsurface tectonic and perhaps cryovolcanic activity. New materials are created or deposited on the surface (radiolysis, micrometeorite impacts, sulfur ion implantation, cryovolcanic plume deposits), modified in place (thermal segregation, sintering), transported either vertically or horizontally (sputtering, gardening, mass wasting, tectonic and cryovolcanic activity), or lost from Europa completely (sputtering, plumes, larger impacts). Some of these processes vary spatially, as visible in Europa’s leading-trailing hemisphere brightness asymmetry.Endogenic geologic processes also vary spatially, depending on terrain type. The surface can be classified into general landform categories that include tectonic features (ridges, bands, cracks); disrupted “chaos-type” terrain (chaos blocks, matrix, domes, pits, spots); and impact craters (simple, complex, multi-ring). The spatial distribution of these terrain types is relatively random, with some differences in apex-antiapex cratering rates and latitudinal variation in chaos vs. tectonic features.In this work, we extrapolate surface processes and rates from the top meter of the surface in conjunction with global estimates of transport and resurfacing rates. We combine near-surface modification with an estimate of surface-subsurface (and vice versa) transport rates for various geologic terrains based on an average of proposed formation mechanisms, and a spatial distribution of each landform type over Europa’s surface area.Understanding the rates and mass balance for each of these processes, as well as their spatial and temporal variability, allows us to estimate surface - subsurface exchange rates over the average surface age (~50myr) of Europa. Quantifying the timescale and volume of transported material will yield insight on whether such a process may provide fuel to sustain a biosphere in Europa’s subsurface ocean, which is relevant to searches for life by a future mission such as a potential Europa Lander.

Surface Modification and Surface - Subsurface Exchange Processes on Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, C. B.; Molaro, J.; Hand, K. P.

2017-12-01

The surface of Jupiter's moon Europa is modified by exogenic processes such as sputtering, gardening, radiolysis, sulfur ion implantation, and thermal processing, as well as endogenic processes including tidal shaking, mass wasting, and the effects of subsurface tectonic and perhaps cryovolcanic activity. New materials are created or deposited on the surface (radiolysis, micrometeorite impacts, sulfur ion implantation, cryovolcanic plume deposits), modified in place (thermal segregation, sintering), transported either vertically or horizontally (sputtering, gardening, mass wasting, tectonic and cryovolcanic activity), or lost from Europa completely (sputtering, plumes, larger impacts). Some of these processes vary spatially, as visible in Europa's leading-trailing hemisphere brightness asymmetry. Endogenic geologic processes also vary spatially, depending on terrain type. The surface can be classified into general landform categories that include tectonic features (ridges, bands, cracks); disrupted "chaos-type" terrain (chaos blocks, matrix, domes, pits, spots); and impact craters (simple, complex, multi-ring). The spatial distribution of these terrain types is relatively random, with some differences in apex-antiapex cratering rates and latitudinal variation in chaos vs. tectonic features. In this work, we extrapolate surface processes and rates from the top meter of the surface in conjunction with global estimates of transport and resurfacing rates. We combine near-surface modification with an estimate of surface-subsurface (and vice versa) transport rates for various geologic terrains based on an average of proposed formation mechanisms, and a spatial distribution of each landform type over Europa's surface area. Understanding the rates and mass balance for each of these processes, as well as their spatial and temporal variability, allows us to estimate surface - subsurface exchange rates over the average surface age ( 50myr) of Europa. Quantifying the timescale and volume of transported material will yield insight on whether such a process may provide fuel to sustain a biosphere in Europa's subsurface ocean, which is relevant to searches for life by a future mission such as a potential Europa Lander.

Refusal bias in HIV prevalence estimates from nationally representative seroprevalence surveys.

PubMed

Reniers, Georges; Eaton, Jeffrey

2009-03-13

To assess the relationship between prior knowledge of one's HIV status and the likelihood to refuse HIV testing in populations-based surveys and explore its potential for producing bias in HIV prevalence estimates. Using longitudinal survey data from Malawi, we estimate the relationship between prior knowledge of HIV-positive status and subsequent refusal of an HIV test. We use that parameter to develop a heuristic model of refusal bias that is applied to six Demographic and Health Surveys, in which refusal by HIV status is not observed. The model only adjusts for refusal bias conditional on a completed interview. Ecologically, HIV prevalence, prior testing rates and refusal for HIV testing are highly correlated. Malawian data further suggest that amongst individuals who know their status, HIV-positive individuals are 4.62 (95% confidence interval, 2.60-8.21) times more likely to refuse testing than HIV-negative ones. On the basis of that parameter and other inputs from the Demographic and Health Surveys, our model predicts downward bias in national HIV prevalence estimates ranging from 1.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.7-2.9) for Senegal to 13.3% (95% confidence interval, 7.2-19.6) for Malawi. In absolute terms, bias in HIV prevalence estimates is negligible for Senegal but 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 0.8-2.3) percentage points for Malawi. Downward bias is more severe in urban populations. Because refusal rates are higher in men, seroprevalence surveys also tend to overestimate the female-to-male ratio of infections. Prior knowledge of HIV status informs decisions to participate in seroprevalence surveys. Informed refusals may produce bias in estimates of HIV prevalence and the sex ratio of infections.

The estimation of the rate of change of yawing moment with sideslip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imlay, Frederick H

1938-01-01

Wind-tunnel data are presented on the rate of change of yawing moment with sideslip for tests of 9 complete airplane models, 20 fuselage shapes, and 3 wing models with various combinations of dihedral, sweepback, and twist. The data were collected during a survey of existing information, which was made to find a reliable method of computing the yawing moment due to sideslip. Important errors common to methods of computation used at present appear to be due to large interference effects, the investigation of which will undoubtedly require an extensive program of systematic wind-tunnel tests. At present it is necessary to place considerable reliance on past design experience in proportioning an airplane so as to obtain a reasonable degree of directional stability.

Urinary albumin excretion is associated with nocturnal systolic blood pressure in resistant hypertensives.

PubMed

Oliveras, Anna; Armario, Pedro; Martell-Clarós, Nieves; Ruilope, Luis M; de la Sierra, Alejandro

2011-03-01

Microalbuminuria is a known marker of subclinical organ damage. Its prevalence is higher in patients with resistant hypertension than in subjects with blood pressure at goal. On the other hand, some patients with apparently well-controlled hypertension still have microalbuminuria. The current study aimed to determine the relationship between microalbuminuria and both office and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure. A cohort of 356 patients (mean age 64 ± 11 years; 40.2% females) with resistant hypertension (blood pressure ≥ 140 and/or 90 mm Hg despite treatment with ≥ 3 drugs, diuretic included) were selected from Spanish hypertension units. Patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were excluded. All patients underwent clinical and demographic evaluation, complete laboratory analyses, and good technical-quality 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Urinary albumin/creatinine ratio was averaged from 3 first-morning void urine samples. Microalbuminuria (urinary albumin/creatinine ratio ≥ 2.5 mg/mmol in males or ≥ 3.5 mg/mmol in females) was detected in 46.6%, and impaired renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) was detected in 26.8%. Bivariate analyses showed significant associations of microalbuminuria with older age, reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate, increased nighttime systolic blood pressure, and elevated daytime, nighttime, and 24-hour diastolic blood pressure. In a logistic regression analysis, after age and sex adjustment, elevated nighttime systolic blood pressure (multivariate odds ratio, 1.014 [95% CI, 1.001 to 1.026]; P=0.029) and reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (multivariate odds ratio, 2.79 [95% CI, 1.57 to 4.96]; P=0.0005) were independently associated with the presence of microalbuminuria. We conclude that microalbuminuria is better associated with increased nighttime systolic blood pressure than with any other office and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring parameters.

Complete prevalence of malignant primary brain tumors registry data in the United States compared with other common cancers, 2010

PubMed Central

Zhang, Adah S.; Ostrom, Quinn T.; Kruchko, Carol; Rogers, Lisa; Peereboom, David M.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background. Complete prevalence proportions illustrate the burden of disease in a population. This study estimates the 2010 complete prevalence of malignant primary brain tumors overall and by Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) histology groups, and compares the brain tumor prevalence estimates to the complete prevalence of other common cancers as determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) by age at prevalence (2010): children (0–14 y), adolescent and young adult (AYA) (15–39 y), and adult (40+ y). Methods. Complete prevalence proportions were estimated using a novel regression method extended from the Completeness Index Method, which combines survival and incidence data from multiple sources. In this study, two datasets, CBTRUS and SEER, were used to calculate complete prevalence estimates of interest. Results. Complete prevalence for malignant primary brain tumors was 47.59/100000 population (22.31, 48.49, and 57.75/100000 for child, AYA, and adult populations). The most prevalent cancers by age were childhood leukemia (36.65/100000), AYA melanoma of the skin (66.21/100000), and adult female breast (1949.00/100000). The most prevalent CBTRUS histologies in children and AYA were pilocytic astrocytoma (6.82/100000, 5.92/100000), and glioblastoma (12.76/100000) in adults. Conclusions. The relative impact of malignant primary brain tumors is higher among children than any other age group; it emerges as the second most prevalent cancer among children. Complete prevalence estimates for primary malignant brain tumors fills a gap in overall cancer knowledge, which provides critical information toward public health and health care planning, including treatment, decision making, funding, and advocacy programs. PMID:28039365

Long-term and seasonal Caspian Sea level change from satellite gravity and altimeter measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J. L.; Wilson, C. R.; Tapley, B. D.; Save, H.; Cretaux, Jean-Francois

2017-03-01

We examine recent Caspian Sea level change by using both satellite radar altimetry and satellite gravity data. The altimetry record for 2002-2015 shows a declining level at a rate that is approximately 20 times greater than the rate of global sea level rise. Seasonal fluctuations are also much larger than in the world oceans. With a clearly defined geographic region and dominant signal magnitude, variations in the sea level and associated mass changes provide an excellent way to compare various approaches for processing satellite gravity data. An altimeter time series derived from several successive satellite missions is compared with mass measurements inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data in the form of both spherical harmonic (SH) and mass concentration (mascon) solutions. After correcting for spatial leakage in GRACE SH estimates by constrained forward modeling and accounting for steric and terrestrial water processes, GRACE and altimeter observations are in complete agreement at seasonal and longer time scales, including linear trends. This demonstrates that removal of spatial leakage error in GRACE SH estimates is both possible and critical to improving their accuracy and spatial resolution. Excellent agreement between GRACE and altimeter estimates also provides confirmation of steric Caspian Sea level change estimates. GRACE mascon estimates (both the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) coastline resolution improvement version 2 solution and the Center for Space Research (CSR) regularized) are also affected by leakage error. After leakage corrections, both JPL and CSR mascon solutions also agree well with altimeter observations. However, accurate quantification of leakage bias in GRACE mascon solutions is a more challenging problem.

Welfare analysis of a zero-smoking policy - A case study in Japan.

PubMed

Nakamura, Yuuki; Takahashi, Kenzo; Nomura, Marika; Kamei, Miwako

2018-03-19

Smoking cessation efforts in Japan reduce smoking rates. A future zero-smoking policy would completely prohibit smoking (0% rate). We therefore analyzed the social welfare of smokers and non-smokers under a hypothetical zero-smoking policy. The demand curve for smoking from 1990 to 2014 was estimated by defining quantity as the number of cigarettes smoked and price as total tobacco sales/total cigarettes smoked by the two-stage least squares method using the tax on tobacco as the instrumental variable. In the estimation equation (calculated using the ordinary least squares method), the price of tobacco was the dependent variable and tobacco quantity the explanatory variable. The estimated constant was 31.90, the estimated coefficient of quantity was - 0.0061 (both, p < 0.0004), and the determinant coefficient was 0.9187. Thus, the 2015 consumer surplus was 1.08 trillion yen (US$ 9.82 billion) (95% confidence interval (CI), 889 billion yen (US$ 8.08 billion) - 1.27 trillion yen (US$ 11.6 billion)). Because tax revenue from tobacco in 2011 was 2.38 trillion yen (US$ 21.6 billion), the estimated deadweight loss if smoking were prohibited in 2014 was 3.31 trillion yen (US$ 30.2 billion) (95% CI, 3.13 trillion yen (US$ 28.5 billion) - 3.50 trillion yen (US$ 31.8 billion)), representing a deadweight loss about 0.6 trillion yen (US$ 5.45 billion) below the 2014 disease burden (4.10-4.12 trillion yen (US$ 37.3-37.5 billion)). We conclude that a zero-smoking policy would improve social welfare in Japan.

A New Technique For Quantifying Effusive Volcanic Activity at Tolbachik Volcano Using Multiple Remote Sensing Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAlpin, D. B.; Meyer, F. J.; Dehn, J.; Webley, P. W.

2016-12-01

In 1976, "The Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption," became the largest basaltic eruption in the recorded history of the Kamchatka Peninsula. In November 2012, after thirty-six years of quiescence, Tolbachik again erupted, and continued for nine months until its end in August, 2013. Observers of the 2012-13 eruption reported a mostly effusive eruption from two main fissures, long, rapidly moving lava flows, and ash clouds of up to 6 km. Initial estimates of effusive activity reported an approximate volume of 0.52 km³ over an area of more than 35 km². In this analysis, we provide updated effusion estimates for the Tolbachik eruption, determined by thermal data acquired by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellites. Each of the four AVHRR satellites carries a broad-band, five channel sensor that acquires data in the visible and infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, with each satellite completing 14 daily Earth orbits. A critical component to the volume estimates is a determination of fissure size and the area of lava flow at different times during the eruption. For this purpose, we acquired optical satellite images obtained from three orbiting platforms: the Advanced Land Imager (ALI),) aboard the Earth Observer-1 (EO-1) satellite, the Operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard Landsat 8, and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) aboard NASA's Terra satellite. From these multiple platforms, lava flow maps were prepared from repeat acquisitions over the course of the eruption. Periodic lava flow measurements clarify effusion rates as instantaneous discharge rates, mean effusion rates over time, and an overall effusion rate over the entire eruption. Given the natural limitations of effusion estimates derived from thermal data, our results are compared to effusion estimates derived by DEM differencing to evaluate accuracy. This analysis is a true multi-sensor technique that affords a method to rapidly quantify effusive volcanic activity in terms of flow temperature, lava volume, and area on a basis coeval to the eruption, and has important implications for scientific and hazard analyses of future volcanic episodes.

[Nonuniformity in the evolutionary rate in the virilis: II. group of Drosophilas: application of the method of Tajima's test].

PubMed

Kulikov, A M; Lazebnyĭ, O E; Chekunova, A I; Mitrofanov, V G

2010-01-01

The steadiness of the molecular clock was estimated in 11 Drosophila species of the virilis group by sequences of five genes by applying Tajima's Simple Method. The main characteristic of this method is the independence of its phylogenetic constructions. The obtained results have completely confirmed the conclusions drawn relying on the application of the two-cluster test and the Takezaki branch-length test. In addition, the deviation of the molecular clock has found confirmation in D. virilis evolutionary lineages.

Development of an analytical-numerical model to predict radiant emission or absorption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Tim L.

1994-01-01

The development of an analytical-numerical model to predict radiant emission or absorption is discussed. A voigt profile is assumed to predict the spectral qualities of a singlet atomic transition line for atomic species of interest to the OPAD program. The present state of this model is described in each progress report required under contract. Model and code development is guided by experimental data where available. When completed, the model will be used to provide estimates of specie erosion rates from spectral data collected from rocket exhaust plumes or other sources.

The impact rate on Earth.

PubMed

Bland, Philip A

2005-12-15

Recent data, and modelling of the interaction between asteroids and the atmosphere, has defined a complete size-frequency distribution for terrestrial impactors, from meteorite-sized objects up to kilometre-sized asteroids, for both the upper atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Although there remain significant uncertainties in the incidence of specific size-fractions of impactors, these estimates allow us to constrain the threat posed by impacts to human populations. It is clear that impacts remain a significant natural hazard, but uniquely, they are a threat that we can accurately predict, and take steps to avoid.

Exploring the relationship between population density and maternal health coverage.

PubMed

Hanlon, Michael; Burstein, Roy; Masters, Samuel H; Zhang, Raymond

2012-11-21

Delivering health services to dense populations is more practical than to dispersed populations, other factors constant. This engenders the hypothesis that population density positively affects coverage rates of health services. This hypothesis has been tested indirectly for some services at a local level, but not at a national level. We use cross-sectional data to conduct cross-country, OLS regressions at the national level to estimate the relationship between population density and maternal health coverage. We separately estimate the effect of two measures of density on three population-level coverage rates (6 tests in total). Our coverage indicators are the fraction of the maternal population completing four antenatal care visits and the utilization rates of both skilled birth attendants and in-facility delivery. The first density metric we use is the percentage of a population living in an urban area. The second metric, which we denote as a density score, is a relative ranking of countries by population density. The score's calculation discounts a nation's uninhabited territory under the assumption those areas are irrelevant to service delivery. We find significantly positive relationships between our maternal health indicators and density measures. On average, a one-unit increase in our density score is equivalent to a 0.2% increase in coverage rates. Countries with dispersed populations face higher burdens to achieve multinational coverage targets such as the United Nations' Millennial Development Goals.

Trends and Burden of Bronchiectasis-Associated Hospitalizations in the United States, 1993-2006

PubMed Central

Seitz, Amy E.; Olivier, Kenneth N.; Steiner, Claudia A.; Montes de Oca, Ruben; Holland, Steven M.

2010-01-01

Background: Current data on bronchiectasis prevalence, trends, and risk factors are lacking; such data are needed to estimate the burden of disease and for improved medical care and public health resource allocation. The objective of the present study was to estimate the trends and burden of bronchiectasis-associated hospitalizations in the United States. Methods: We extracted hospital discharge records containing International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes for bronchiectasis (494, 494.0, and 494.1) as any discharge diagnosis from the State Inpatient Databases from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. Discharge records were extracted for 12 states with complete and continuous reporting from 1993 to 2006. Results: The average annual age-adjusted hospitalization rate from 1993 to 2006 was 16.5 hospitalizations per 100,000 population. From 1993 to 2006, the age-adjusted rate increased significantly, with an average annual percentage increase of 2.4% among men and 3.0% among women. Women and persons aged > 60 years had the highest rate of bronchiectasis-associated hospitalizations. The median cost for inpatient care was 7,827 US dollars (USD) (range, 13-543,914 USD). Conclusions: The average annual age-adjusted rate of bronchiectasis-associated hospitalizations increased from 1993 to 2006. This study furthers the understanding of the impact of bronchiectasis and demonstrates the need for further research to identify risk factors and reasons for the increasing burden. PMID:20435655

The Kola Birth Registry and perinatal mortality in Moncegorsk, Russia.

PubMed

Vaktskjold, Arild; Talykova, Ljudmila; Chashchin, Valerij; Nieboer, Evert; Odland, Jon Øyvind

2004-01-01

A population-based birth registry has been set up for the Arctic town of Moncegorsk in north-western Russia. In this investigation, the quality and the content of the registry are assessed and the perinatal mortality (PM) rates in the period 1973-97 estimated. Enrollment in the Kola Birth Registry (KBR) involved the retrospective inclusion of all births with at least 28 weeks of gestation in Moncegorsk in the period 1973-97. The data in the registry were assessed for data entry errors, completeness of data and population coverage. The annual PM rates were estimated for live- and stillborns with at least 28 weeks of gestation. The KBR contains detailed information about the newborn, delivery, pregnancy and mother for 21 214 births by women from Moncegorsk, covering at least 96% of all the births by the population in the period studied. No records were missing data for gender and birth date of the newborn, and more than 99.9% of the records contained data about gestational age and birthweight. Data concerning the mothers' employment were missing in 0.4% of the records. The annual PM rate fell from more than 20 to less than 10 deaths per 1000 births during this period. The KBR provides an extensive data source useful for case-control and register-based prospective studies, and constitutes the first such compilation in Russia. The homogeneity of the population in Moncegorsk makes it advantageous for epidemiological investigations. The PM rate in Moncegorsk was lower than the overall rate in Russia.

A new method for evaluating compliance with industry self-regulation codes governing the content of alcohol advertising.

PubMed

Babor, Thomas F; Xuan, Ziming; Damon, Donna

2013-10-01

This study evaluated the use of a modified Delphi technique in combination with a previously developed alcohol advertising rating procedure to detect content violations in the U.S. Beer Institute Code. A related aim was to estimate the minimum number of raters needed to obtain reliable evaluations of code violations in television commercials. Six alcohol ads selected for their likelihood of having code violations were rated by community and expert participants (N = 286). Quantitative rating scales were used to measure the content of alcohol advertisements based on alcohol industry self-regulatory guidelines. The community group participants represented vulnerability characteristics that industry codes were designed to protect (e.g., age <21); experts represented various health-related professions, including public health, human development, alcohol research, and mental health. Alcohol ads were rated on 2 occasions separated by 1 month. After completing Time 1 ratings, participants were randomized to receive feedback from 1 group or the other. Findings indicate that (i) ratings at Time 2 had generally reduced variance, suggesting greater consensus after feedback, (ii) feedback from the expert group was more influential than that of the community group in developing group consensus, (iii) the expert group found significantly fewer violations than the community group, (iv) experts representing different professional backgrounds did not differ among themselves in the number of violations identified, and (v) a rating panel composed of at least 15 raters is sufficient to obtain reliable estimates of code violations. The Delphi technique facilitates consensus development around code violations in alcohol ad content and may enhance the ability of regulatory agencies to monitor the content of alcoholic beverage advertising when combined with psychometric-based rating procedures. Copyright © 2013 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

A New Method for Evaluating Compliance with Industry Self-regulation Codes Governing the Content of Alcohol Advertising

PubMed Central

Babor, Thomas F.; Xuan, Ziming; Damon, Donna

2013-01-01

Background This study evaluated the use of a modified Delphi technique in combination with a previously developed alcohol advertising rating procedure to detect content violations in the US Beer Institute code. A related aim was to estimate the minimum number of raters needed to obtain reliable evaluations of code violations in television commercials. Methods Six alcohol ads selected for their likelihood of having code violations were rated by community and expert participants (N=286). Quantitative rating scales were used to measure the content of alcohol advertisements based on alcohol industry self-regulatory guidelines. The community group participants represented vulnerability characteristics that industry codes were designed to protect (e.g., age < 21); experts represented various health-related professions, including public health, human development, alcohol research and mental health. Alcohol ads were rated on two occasions separated by one month. After completing Time 1 ratings, participants were randomized to receive feedback from one group or the other. Results Findings indicate that (1) ratings at Time 2 had generally reduced variance, suggesting greater consensus after feedback, (2) feedback from the expert group was more influential than that of the community group in developing group consensus, (3) the expert group found significantly fewer violations than the community group, (4) experts representing different professional backgrounds did not differ among themselves in the number of violations identified; (5) a rating panel composed of at least 15 raters is sufficient to obtain reliable estimates of code violations. Conclusions The Delphi Technique facilitates consensus development around code violations in alcohol ad content and may enhance the ability of regulatory agencies to monitor the content of alcoholic beverage advertising when combined with psychometric-based rating procedures. PMID:23682927

Impact of participant attrition on child injury outcome estimates: a longitudinal birth cohort study in Australia

PubMed Central

Cameron, Cate M; Osborne, Jodie M; Spinks, Anneliese B; Davey, Tamzyn M; Sipe, Neil; McClure, Roderick J

2017-01-01

Background Longitudinal research is subject to participant attrition. Systemic differences between retained participants and those lost to attrition potentially bias prevalence of outcomes, as well as exposure-outcome associations. This study examines the impact of attrition on the prevalence of child injury outcomes and the association between sociodemographic factors and child injury. Methods Participants were recruited as part of the Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) birth cohort study. Baseline data were drawn from maternal surveys. Child injury outcome data were extracted from hospital records, 2006–2013. Participant attrition status was assessed up to 2014. Rates of injury-related episodes of care were calculated, taking into account exposure time and Poisson regression was performed to estimate exposure-outcome associations. Results Of the 2222 participating families, 799 families (36.0%) had complete follow-up data. Those with incomplete data included 137 (6.2%) who withdrew, 308 (13.8%) were lost to follow-up and 978 families (44.0%) who were partial/non-responders. Families of lower socioeconomic status were less likely to have complete follow-up data (p<0.05). Systematic differences in attrition did not result in differential child injury outcomes or significant differences between the attrition and non-attrition groups in risk factor effect estimates. Participants who withdrew were the only group to demonstrate differences in child injury outcomes. Conclusion This research suggests that even with considerable attrition, if the proportion of participants who withdraw is minimal, overall attrition is unlikely to affect the population prevalence estimate of child injury or measures of association between sociodemographic factors and child injury. PMID:28667218

Implementation Of Fuzzy Approach To Improve Time Estimation [Case Study Of A Thermal Power Plant Is Considered

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, Moumita; Pradhan, Dinesh; Bandyopadhyay, G.

2010-10-01

Fuzzy System has demonstrated their ability to solve different kinds of problem in various application domains. There is an increasing interest to apply fuzzy concept to improve tasks of any system. Here case study of a thermal power plant is considered. Existing time estimation represents time to complete tasks. Applying fuzzy linear approach it becomes clear that after each confidence level least time is taken to complete tasks. As time schedule is less than less amount of cost is needed. Objective of this paper is to show how one system becomes more efficient in applying Fuzzy Linear approach. In this paper we want to optimize the time estimation to perform all tasks in appropriate time schedules. For the case study, optimistic time (to), pessimistic time (tp), most likely time(tm) is considered as data collected from thermal power plant. These time estimates help to calculate expected time(te) which represents time to complete particular task to considering all happenings. Using project evaluation and review technique (PERT) and critical path method (CPM) concept critical path duration (CPD) of this project is calculated. This tells that the probability of fifty percent of the total tasks can be completed in fifty days. Using critical path duration and standard deviation of the critical path, total completion of project can be completed easily after applying normal distribution. Using trapezoidal rule from four time estimates (to, tm, tp, te), we can calculate defuzzyfied value of time estimates. For range of fuzzy, we consider four confidence interval level say 0.4, 0.6, 0.8,1. From our study, it is seen that time estimates at confidence level between 0.4 and 0.8 gives the better result compared to other confidence levels.

34 CFR 668.45 - Information on completion or graduation rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Information on completion or graduation rates. 668.45... Financial Assistance Information for Students § 668.45 Information on completion or graduation rates. (a)(1) An institution annually must prepare the completion or graduation rate of its certificate- or degree...

34 CFR 668.45 - Information on completion or graduation rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Information on completion or graduation rates. 668.45... Financial Assistance Information for Students § 668.45 Information on completion or graduation rates. (a)(1) An institution annually must prepare the completion or graduation rate of its certificate- or degree...

34 CFR 668.45 - Information on completion or graduation rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Information on completion or graduation rates. 668.45... Financial Assistance Information for Students § 668.45 Information on completion or graduation rates. (a)(1) An institution annually must prepare the completion or graduation rate of its certificate- or degree...

34 CFR 668.45 - Information on completion or graduation rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Information on completion or graduation rates. 668.45... Financial Assistance Information for Students § 668.45 Information on completion or graduation rates. (a)(1) An institution annually must prepare the completion or graduation rate of its certificate- or degree...

Relationship Between Operating Room Teamwork, Contextual Factors, and Safety Checklist Performance.

PubMed

Singer, Sara J; Molina, George; Li, Zhonghe; Jiang, Wei; Nurudeen, Suliat; Kite, Julia G; Edmondson, Lizabeth; Foster, Richard; Haynes, Alex B; Berry, William R

2016-10-01

Studies show that using surgical safety checklists (SSCs) reduces complications. Many believe SSCs accomplish this by enhancing teamwork, but evidence is limited. Our study sought to relate teamwork to checklist performance, understand how they relate, and determine conditions that affect this relationship. Using 2 validated tools for observing and coaching operating room teams, we evaluated the association between checklist performance with surgeon buy-in and 4 domains of surgical teamwork: clinical leadership, communication, coordination, and respect. Hospital staff in 10 South Carolina hospitals observed 207 procedures between April 2011 and January 2013. We calculated levels of checklist performance, buy-in, and measures of teamwork, and evaluated their relationship, controlling for patient and case characteristics. Few teams completed most or all SSC items. Teams more often completed items considered procedural "checks" than conversation "prompts." Surgeon buy-in, clinical leadership, communication, a summary measure of teamwork overall, and observers' teamwork ratings positively related to overall checklist completion (multivariable model estimates from 0.04, p < 0.05 for communication to 0.17, p < 0.01 for surgeon buy-in). All measures of teamwork and surgeon buy-in related positively to completing more conversation prompts; none related significantly to procedural checks (estimates from 0.10, p < 0.01 for communication to 0.27, p < 0.001 for surgeon buy-in). Patient age was significantly associated with completing the checklist and prompts (p < 0.05); only case duration was positively associated with performing more checks (p < 0.10). Surgeon buy-in and surgical teamwork characterized by shared clinical leadership, open communication, active coordination, and mutual respect were critical in prompting case-related conversations, but not in completing procedural checks. Findings highlight the importance of surgeon engagement and high-quality, consistent teamwork for promoting checklist use and ensuring a safe surgical environment. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adjustment to time of use pricing: Persistence of habits or change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebello, Derrick Michael

1999-11-01

Generally the dynamics related to residential electricity consumption under TOU rates have not been analyzed completely. A habit persistence model is proposed to account for the dynamics that may be present as a result of recurring habits or lack of information about the effects of shifting load across TOU periods. In addition, the presence of attrition bias necessitated a two-step estimation approach. The decision to remain in the program modeled in the first-step, while demand for electricity was estimated in the second-step. Results show that own-price effects and habit persistence have the most significant effect the model. The habit effects, which while small in absolute terms, are significant. Elasticity estimates show that electricity consumption is inelastic during all periods of the day. Estimates of the long-run elasticities were nearly identical to short-run estimates, showing little or no adjustment across time. Cross-price elasticities indicate a willingness to substitute consumption across periods implying that TOU goods are weak substitutes. The most significant substitution occurs during the period of 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM, when most individuals are likely to be home and active.

Ancient papillomavirus-host co-speciation in Felidae

PubMed Central

Rector, Annabel; Lemey, Philippe; Tachezy, Ruth; Mostmans, Sara; Ghim, Shin-Je; Van Doorslaer, Koenraad; Roelke, Melody; Bush, Mitchell; Montali, Richard J; Joslin, Janis; Burk, Robert D; Jenson, Alfred B; Sundberg, John P; Shapiro, Beth; Van Ranst, Marc

2007-01-01

Background Estimating evolutionary rates for slowly evolving viruses such as papillomaviruses (PVs) is not possible using fossil calibrations directly or sequences sampled over a time-scale of decades. An ability to correlate their divergence with a host species, however, can provide a means to estimate evolutionary rates for these viruses accurately. To determine whether such an approach is feasible, we sequenced complete feline PV genomes, previously available only for the domestic cat (Felis domesticus, FdPV1), from four additional, globally distributed feline species: Lynx rufus PV type 1, Puma concolor PV type 1, Panthera leo persica PV type 1, and Uncia uncia PV type 1. Results The feline PVs all belong to the Lambdapapillomavirus genus, and contain an unusual second noncoding region between the early and late protein region, which is only present in members of this genus. Our maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses demonstrate that the evolutionary relationships between feline PVs perfectly mirror those of their feline hosts, despite a complex and dynamic phylogeographic history. By applying host species divergence times, we provide the first precise estimates for the rate of evolution for each PV gene, with an overall evolutionary rate of 1.95 × 10-8 (95% confidence interval 1.32 × 10-8 to 2.47 × 10-8) nucleotide substitutions per site per year for the viral coding genome. Conclusion Our work provides evidence for long-term virus-host co-speciation of feline PVs, indicating that viral diversity in slowly evolving viruses can be used to investigate host species evolution. These findings, however, should not be extrapolated to other viral lineages without prior confirmation of virus-host co-divergence. PMID:17430578

A new 1649-1884 catalog of destructive earthquakes near Tokyo and implications for the long-term seismic process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grunewald, E.D.; Stein, R.S.

2006-01-01

In order to assess the long-term character of seismicity near Tokyo, we construct an intensity-based catalog of damaging earthquakes that struck the greater Tokyo area between 1649 and 1884. Models for 15 historical earthquakes are developed using calibrated intensity attenuation relations that quantitatively convey uncertainties in event location and magnitude, as well as their covariance. The historical catalog is most likely complete for earthquakes M ??? 6.7; the largest earthquake in the catalog is the 1703 M ??? 8.2 Genroku event. Seismicity rates from 80 years of instrumental records, which include the 1923 M = 7.9 Kanto shock, as well as interevent times estimated from the past ???7000 years of paleoseismic data, are combined with the historical catalog to define a frequency-magnitude distribution for 4.5 ??? M ??? 8.2, which is well described by a truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b value of 0.96 and a maximum magnitude of 8.4. Large uncertainties associated with the intensity-based catalog are propagated by a Monte Carlo simulation to estimations of the scalar moment rate. The resulting best estimate of moment rate during 1649-2003 is 1.35 ?? 1026 dyn cm yr-1 with considerable uncertainty at the 1??, level: (-0.11, + 0.20) ?? 1026 dyn cm yr-1. Comparison with geodetic models of the interseismic deformation indicates that the geodetic moment accumulation and likely moment release rate are roughly balanced over the catalog period. This balance suggests that the extended catalog is representative of long-term seismic processes near Tokyo and so can be used to assess earthquake probabilities. The resulting Poisson (or time-averaged) 30-year probability for M ??? 7.9 earthquakes is 7-11%.

Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, Daniel P.; Dreitz, VJ; Heisey, Dennis M.

2015-01-01

Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework.

PubMed

Walsh, Daniel P; Dreitz, Victoria J; Heisey, Dennis M

2015-02-01

Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

Determining the flux of methane into Hudson Canyon at the edge of methane clathrate hydrate stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weinsten, A.; Navarrete, L; Ruppel, Carolyn D.; Weber, T.C.; Leonte, M.; Kellermann, M.; Arrington, E.; Valentine, D.L.; Scranton, M.L; Kessler, John D.

2016-01-01

Methane seeps were investigated in Hudson Canyon, the largest shelf-break canyon on the northern US Atlantic Margin. The seeps investigated are located at or updip of the nominal limit of methane clathrate hydrate stability. The acoustic identification of bubble streams was used to guide water column sampling in a 32 km2 region within the canyon's thalweg. By incorporating measurements of dissolved methane concentration with methane oxidation rates and current velocity into a steady-state box model, the total emission of methane to the water column in this region was estimated to be 12 kmol methane per day (range: 6 – 24 kmol methane per day). These analyses suggest this methane is largely retained inside the canyon walls below 300 m water depth, and that it is aerobically oxidized to near completion within the larger extent of Hudson Canyon. Based on estimated methane emissions and measured oxidation rates, the oxidation of this methane to dissolved CO2 is expected to have minimal influences on seawater pH. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Determining the flux of methane into Hudson Canyon at the edge of methane clathrate hydrate stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, Alexander; Navarrete, Luis; Ruppel, Carolyn; Weber, Thomas C.; Leonte, Mihai; Kellermann, Matthias Y.; Arrington, Eleanor C.; Valentine, David L.; Scranton, Mary I.; Kessler, John D.

2016-10-01

Methane seeps were investigated in Hudson Canyon, the largest shelf-break canyon on the northern U.S. Atlantic Margin. The seeps investigated are located at or updip of the nominal limit of methane clathrate hydrate stability. The acoustic identification of bubble streams was used to guide water column sampling in a 32 km2 region within the canyon's thalweg. By incorporating measurements of dissolved methane concentration with methane oxidation rates and current velocity into a steady state box model, the total emission of methane to the water column in this region was estimated to be 12 kmol methane per day (range: 6-24 kmol methane per day). These analyses suggest that the emitted methane is largely retained inside the canyon walls below 300 m water depth, and that it is aerobically oxidized to near completion within the larger extent of Hudson Canyon. Based on estimated methane emissions and measured oxidation rates, the oxidation of this methane to dissolved CO2 is expected to have minimal influences on seawater pH.

Wintertime Air-Sea Gas Transfer Rates and Air Injection Fluxes at Station Papa in the NE Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeil, C.; Steiner, N.; Vagle, S.

2008-12-01

In recent studies of air-sea fluxes of N2 and O2 in hurricanes, McNeil and D'Asaro (2007) used a simplified model formulation of air-sea gas flux to estimate simultaneous values of gas transfer rate, KT, and air injection flux, VT. The model assumes air-sea gas fluxes at high to extreme wind speeds can be explained by a combination of two processes: 1) air injection, by complete dissolution of small bubbles drawn down into the ocean boundary layer by turbulent currents, and 2) near-surface equilibration processes, such as occurs within whitecaps. This analysis technique relies on air-sea gas flux estimates for two gases, N2 and O2, to solve for the two model parameters, KT and VT. We present preliminary results of similar analysis of time series data collected during winter storms at Station Papa in the NE Pacific during 2003/2004. The data show a clear increase in KT and VT with increasing NCEP derived wind speeds and acoustically measured bubble penetration depth.

Pre-commercial Demonstration of Direct Non-iterative State Estimator for Operational Use of Synchrophasor Management Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lelic, Muhidin; Avramovic, Bozidar; Jiang, Tony

The objective of this project was to demonstrate functionality and performance of a Direct Non-iterative State Estimator (DNSE) integrated with NYPA’s Energy Management System (EMS) and with enhanced Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) synchrophasor platform from Electric Power Group (EPG). DNSE is designed to overcome a major obstacle to operational use of Synchro-Phasor Management Systems (SPMS) by providing to synchrophasor management systems (SPMS) applications a consistent and a complete synchrophasor data foundation in the same way that a traditional EMS State Estimator (SE) provides to EMS applications. Specifically, DNSE is designed to use synchrophasor measurements collected by a centralmore » PDC, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurements, and Energy Management System (EMS) network model, to obtain the complete state of the utility’s operating model at rates that are close to the synchrophasor data rates. In this way, the system is comprehensive in that it does not only cover the part of the network that is “visible” via synchrophasors, but also the part that is only “visible” through the SCADA measurements. Visualization needs associated with the use of DNSE results are fulfilled through suitably enhanced Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS), with the enhancements implemented by EPG. This project had the following goals in mind: To advance the deployment of commercial grade DNSE software application that relies on synchrophasor and SCADA data ; Apply DNSE at other utilities, to address a generic and fundamental need for “clean” operational data for synchrophasor applications; Provide means for “live” estimated data access by control system operators; Enhance potential for situational awareness through full system operational model coverage; Sub-second execution rate of the Direct Non-iterative State Estimator, eventually at a near-phasor data rate execution speed, i.e. < 0.1 sec. Anticipated benefits from this projects are: Enhanced reliability and improvements in the economic efficiency of bulk power system planning and operations; Providing “clean” data to other synchrophasor applications; Enhancement of situational awareness by providing the full operational model updated at near synchrophasor rate; A production-grade software tool that incorporate synchrophasor and SCADA data; Provides a basis for development of next generation monitoring and control applications, based on both SCADA and PMU data. Quanta Technology (QT) team worked in collaboration with Electric Power Group (EPG) whose team has enhanced its commercial Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) to accommodate the requirements posed by DNSE application. EPG also provided its ePDC and Model-less Data Conditioning (PDVC) software for integration with DNSE+. QT developed the system requirements for DNSE; developed system architecture and defined interfaces between internal DNSE components. The core DNSE algorithm with all surrounding interfaces was named DNSE+. Since the DNSE development was done in a simulated system environment, QT used its PMU simulator that was enhanced during this project for development and factory acceptance testing (FAT). SCADA data in this stage was simulated by commercial PSS/e software. The output of DNSE are estimates of System states in C37.118-2 format, sent to RTDMS for further processing and display. As the number of these states is large, it was necessary to expand the C37.111-2 standard to accommodate large data sets. This enhancement was implemented in RTDMS. The demonstration of pre-production DNSE technology was done at NYPA using streaming field data from NYPA PMUs and from its RTUs through their SCADA system. NYPA provided ICCP interface as well as Common Information Model (CIM). The relevance of the DNSE+ application is that it provides state estimation of the power system based on hybrid set of data, consisting of both available PMU data and SCADA measurements. As this is a direct, non-iterative method of calculation of the system states, if does not suffer from convergence issues which is potential problem for conventional state estimators. Also, it can take any available PMU measurements, so it does not need to have a high percentage of PMU coverage needed in the case of Linear State Estimator. As the DNSE calculates synchrophasors of the system states (both phase and absolute value) as sub-second rate, this application can provide a basis for development of next generation of applications based both on SCADA and PMU data.« less

The "Measuring Outcomes of Clinical Connectivity" (MOCC) trial: investigating data entry errors in the Electronic Primary Care Research Network (ePCRN).

PubMed

Fontaine, Patricia; Mendenhall, Tai J; Peterson, Kevin; Speedie, Stuart M

2007-01-01

The electronic Primary Care Research Network (ePCRN) enrolled PBRN researchers in a feasibility trial to test the functionality of the network's electronic architecture and investigate error rates associated with two data entry strategies used in clinical trials. PBRN physicians and research assistants who registered with the ePCRN were eligible to participate. After online consent and randomization, participants viewed simulated patient records, presented as either abstracted data (short form) or progress notes (long form). Participants transcribed 50 data elements onto electronic case report forms (CRFs) without integrated field restrictions. Data errors were analyzed. Ten geographically dispersed PBRNs enrolled 100 members and completed the study in less than 7 weeks. The estimated overall error rate if field restrictions had been applied was 2.3%. Participants entering data from the short form had a higher rate of correctly entered data fields (94.5% vs 90.8%, P = .004) and significantly more error-free records (P = .003). Feasibility outcomes integral to completion of an Internet-based, multisite study were successfully achieved. Further development of programmable electronic safeguards is indicated. The error analysis conducted in this study will aid design of specific field restrictions for electronic CRFs, an important component of clinical trial management systems.

Droplet collisions and interaction with the turbulent flow within a two-phase wind tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordás, Róbert; Hagemeier, Thomas; Wunderlich, Bernd; Thévenin, Dominique

2011-08-01

Experiments in wind tunnels concerning meteorological issues are not very frequent in the literature. However, such experiments might be essential, for instance for a careful investigation of droplet-droplet interactions in turbulent flows. This issue is crucial for many configurations, in particular to understand warm rain initiation. It is clearly impossible to completely reproduce cloud turbulence within a wind tunnel due to the enormous length scales involved. Nevertheless, it is not necessary to recover the whole spectrum in order to quantify droplet interactions. It is sufficient for this purpose to account correctly for the relevant properties only. In the present paper, these properties and a methodology for setting those in a two-phase wind tunnel are first described. In particular, droplet size and number density, velocities, turbulent kinetic energy, k, and its dissipation rate, ɛ, are suitably reproduced, as demonstrated by non-intrusive measurement techniques. A complete experimental characterization of the air and droplet properties is freely available in a database accessible at http://www.ovgu.de/isut/lss/metstroem. Finally, quantifications of droplet collision rates and comparisons with theoretical predictions are presented, showing that measured collision rates are higher, typically by a factor of 2 to 5. These results demonstrate that model modifications are needed to estimate correctly droplet collision probabilities in turbulent flows

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. (a) Procedures for determining the estimated annual energy consumption, the estimated annual operating costs, the energy efficiency ratings, and the efficacy...

Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, northwestern Washington, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Baccus, William T.

2016-11-30

Executive SummaryWe estimated abundance and trends of non-native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains of northwestern Washington, based on aerial surveys conducted during July 13–24, 2016. The surveys produced the seventh population estimate since the first formal aerial surveys were conducted in 1983. This was the second population estimate since we adjusted survey area boundaries and adopted new estimation procedures in 2011. Before 2011, surveys encompassed all areas free of glacial ice at elevations above 1,520 meters (m), but in 2011 we expanded survey unit boundaries to include suitable mountain goat habitats at elevations between 1,425 and 1,520 m. In 2011, we also began applying a sightability correction model allowing us to estimate undercounting bias associated with aerial surveys and to adjust survey results accordingly. The 2016 surveys were carried out by National Park Service (NPS) personnel in Olympic National Park and by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) biologists in Olympic National Forest and in the southeastern part of Olympic National Park. We surveyed a total of 59 survey units, comprising 55 percent of the 60,218-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 623 ±43 (standard error, SE). Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 561 to 741 mountain goats at the time of the survey.We examined the rate of increase of the mountain goat population by comparing the current population estimate to previous estimates from 2004 and 2011. Because aerial survey boundaries changed between 2004 and 2016, we recomputed population estimates for 2011 and 2016 surveys based on the revised survey boundaries as well as the previously defined boundaries so that estimates were directly comparable across years. Additionally, because the Mount Washington survey unit was not surveyed in 2011, we used results from an independent survey of the Mount Washington unit conducted by WDFW biologists in 2012 and combined it with the 2011 survey results to produce a complete survey conducted over 2 years. The revised estimates of mountain goat abundance occurring at elevations above 1,520 m were 230 ±19 (SE) in 2004, 350 ±41 (SE) in 2011, and 584 ±39 (SE) in 2016. The difference between the overall 2016 population estimate (623 ±43 [SE]) and the smaller estimate (584 ±39 [SE]) reflected the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded survey areas added in 2011. Based on comparisons within the standardized survey boundary, the mountain goat population in the Olympic Mountains increased at an average finite rate of 6 percent annually from 2004 to 2011, 11 percent annually from 2011 to 2016, and 8 percent annually over the combined period. We caution that the population may have been underestimated in 2011 because of record heavy snows persisting into the survey season. Therefore, the rate of population increase from 2011 and 2016 may be overestimated. The rate of increase measured over the combined period (2004–16) may be more representative of the recent population growth. We conclude that the abundance of mountain goats has increased for more than a decade, and if the recent average rate of population growth were sustained, the population would increase by 45 percent over the next 5 years.

Calculating lunar retreat rates using tidal rhythmites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kvale, E.P.; Johnson, H.W.; Sonett, C.P.; Archer, A.W.; Zawistoski, A.N.N.

1999-01-01

Tidal rhythmites are small-scale sedimenta??r}- structures that can preserve a hierarchy of astronomically induced tidal periods. They can also preserve a record of periodic nontidal sedimentation. If properly interpreted and understood, tidal rhjthmites can be an important component of paleoastronomy and can be used to extract information on ancient lunar orbital dynamics including changes in Earth-Moon distance through geologic time. Herein we present techniques that can be used to calculate ancient Earth-Moon distances. Each of these techniques, when used on a modern high-tide data set, results in calculated estimates of lunar orbital periods and an EarthMoon distance that fall well within 1 percent of the actual values. Comparisons to results from modern tidal data indicate that ancient tidal rhythmite data as short as 4 months can provide suitable estimates of lunar orbital periods if these tidal records are complete. An understanding of basic tidal theory allows for the evaluation of completeness of the ancient tidal record as derived from an analysis of tidal rhythmites. Utilizing the techniques presented herein, it appears from the rock record that lunar orbital retreat slowed sometime during the midPaleozoic. Copyright ??1999, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

The Impact of Back-Sputtered Carbon on the Accelerator Grid Wear Rates of the NEXT and NSTAR Ion Thrusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soulas, George C.

2013-01-01

A study was conducted to quantify the impact of back-sputtered carbon on the downstream accelerator grid erosion rates of the NEXT (NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster) Long Duration Test (LDT1). A similar analysis that was conducted for the NSTAR (NASA's Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness Program) Life Demonstration Test (LDT2) was used as a foundation for the analysis developed herein. A new carbon surface coverage model was developed that accounted for multiple carbon adlayers before complete surface coverage is achieved. The resulting model requires knowledge of more model inputs, so they were conservatively estimated using the results of past thin film sputtering studies and particle reflection predictions. In addition, accelerator current densities across the grid were rigorously determined using an ion optics code to determine accelerator current distributions and an algorithm to determine beam current densities along a grid using downstream measurements. The improved analysis was applied to the NSTAR test results for evaluation. The improved analysis demonstrated that the impact of back-sputtered carbon on pit and groove wear rate for the NSTAR LDT2 was negligible throughout most of eroded grid radius. The improved analysis also predicted the accelerator current density for transition from net erosion to net deposition considerably more accurately than the original analysis. The improved analysis was used to estimate the impact of back-sputtered carbon on the accelerator grid pit and groove wear rate of the NEXT Long Duration Test (LDT1). Unlike the NSTAR analysis, the NEXT analysis was more challenging because the thruster was operated for extended durations at various operating conditions and was unavailable for measurements because the test is ongoing. As a result, the NEXT LDT1 estimates presented herein are considered preliminary until the results of future posttest analyses are incorporated. The worst-case impact of carbon back-sputtering was determined to be the full power operating condition, but the maximum impact of back-sputtered carbon was only a four percent reduction in wear rate. As a result, back-sputtered carbon is estimated to have an insignificant impact on the first failure mode of the NEXT LDT at all operating conditions.

Colorectal cancer among Koreans living in South Korea versus California: incidence, mortality, and screening rates.

PubMed

Ryu, So Yeon; Crespi, Catherine M; Maxwell, Annette E

2014-08-01

This study compared trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates among Koreans in South Korea and Korean Americans and non-Hispanic whites in California between 1999 and 2009, and examined CRC screening rates and socio-demographic correlates of CRC screening in the two Korean populations. Age-standardized CRC incidence and mortality rates of Koreans in South Korea and Korean Americans and non-Hispanic whites in California for the years 1999-2009 were obtained from annual reports of cancer statistics and modeled using joinpoint regression. Using 2009 data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the California Health Interview Survey, we estimated and compared CRC screening rates and test modalities. We used multiple logistic regression to examine socio-demographic correlates of completion of CRC screening according to the guidelines among the two Korean populations. CRC incidence and mortality rates among South Koreans increased during 1999-2009 but more slowly during the late 2000s. In California, CRC incidence increased among Korean American females but decreased among non-Hispanic whites. About 37% of South Koreans and 60% of Korean Americans reported completion of CRC screening according to guidelines in 2009. Among South Koreans, married status, higher income, and private health insurance were associated with CRC screening, adjusting for other factors. Among Korean Americans, having health insurance was associated with CRC screening. Despite almost identical CRC screening guidelines in South Korea and the USA and substantially higher screening rates among Korean Americans as compared to South Koreans, disparities remain in both populations with respect to CRC statistics. Thus, efforts to promote primary and secondary prevention of CRC in both Korean populations are critically important in both countries.

Evaluating the construct of triage acuity against a set of reference vignettes developed via modified Delphi method.

PubMed

Twomey, Michèle; Wallis, Lee A; Myers, Jonathan E

2014-07-01

To evaluate the construct of triage acuity as measured by the South African Triage Scale (SATS) against a set of reference vignettes. A modified Delphi method was used to develop a set of reference vignettes. Delphi participants completed a 2-round consensus-building process, and independently assigned triage acuity ratings to 100 written vignettes unaware of the ratings given by others. Triage acuity ratings were summarised for all vignettes, and only those that reached 80% consensus during round 2 were included in the reference set. Triage ratings for the reference vignettes given by two independent experts using the SATS were compared with the ratings given by the international Delphi panel. Measures of sensitivity, specificity, associated percentages for over-triage/under-triage were used to evaluate the construct of triage acuity (as measured by the SATS) by examining the association between the ratings by the two experts and the international panel. On completion of the Delphi process, 42 of the 100 vignettes reached 80% consensus on their acuity rating and made up the reference set. On average, over all acuity levels, sensitivity was 74% (CI 64% to 82%), specificity 92% (CI 87% to 94%), under-triage occurred 14% (CI 8% to 23%) and over-triage 12% (CI 8% to 23%) of the time. The results of this study provide an alternative to evaluating triage scales against the construct of acuity as measured with the SATS. This method of using 80% consensus vignettes may, however, systematically bias the validity estimate towards better performance. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Efficacy of Skin-Directed Therapy for Cutaneous Metastases From Advanced Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Spratt, Daniel E.; Gordon Spratt, Elizabeth A.; Wu, Shenhong; DeRosa, Antonio; Lee, Nancy Y.; Lacouture, Mario E.; Barker, Christopher A.

2014-01-01

Purpose To perform the first meta-analysis of the efficacy of skin-directed therapies for cutaneous metastases. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were searched for reports of prospective clinical studies published between 1960 and 2013 that assessed the response of skin-directed therapy for cutaneous metastases (47 of 2,955 unique studies were selected). Primary end points of the study were complete and objective response rates. Secondary analyses were preplanned and included subgroup analyses by skin-directed therapy, histology, and recurrence rates. Meta-analyses were performed with random-effect modeling, and extent of heterogeneity between studies was determined with the Cochran Q and I2 tests. Results After applying exclusion criteria, 47 prospective studies of 4,313 cutaneous metastases were assessed. Five skin-directed therapies were identified: electrochemotherapy, photodynamic therapy, radiotherapy, intralesional therapy, and topical therapy. Among all cutaneous metastases, complete response rate was 35.5% (95% CI, 27.6% to 44.3%) and objective response rate was 60.2% (95% CI, 50.6% to 69.0%). Overall recurrence rate was estimated to be 9.2% (95% CI, 3.7% to 21.2%). Melanoma and breast carcinoma comprised 96.8% of all cutaneous metastases studied and had similar objective response rates (54.5% [95% CI, 48.3% to 60.7%] and 54.0% [95% CI, 48.3% to 59.7%], respectively). Grade ≥ 3 toxicity was reported in less than 6% of patients. Conclusion Response to skin-directed therapy for cutaneous metastases is high but heterogeneous across treatment modalities, with low rates of recurrence post-treatment. Treatment was generally well tolerated and conferred improvements in quality of life. Standardization of response criteria for cutaneous metastases and treatment algorithms to optimally use the available skin-directed therapies are needed. PMID:25154827

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2011-01-01

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE PAGES

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; ...

2016-06-03

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Developmental Times of Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) at Constant Temperatures and Applications in Forensic Entomology.

PubMed

Yang, Yong-Qiang; Li, Xue-Bo; Shao, Ru-Yue; Lyu, Zhou; Li, Hong-Wei; Li, Gen-Ping; Xu, Lyu-Zi; Wan, Li-Hua

2016-09-01

The characteristic life stages of infesting blowflies (Calliphoridae) such as Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius) are powerful evidence for estimating the death time of a corpse, but an established reference of developmental times for local blowfly species is required. We determined the developmental rates of C. megacephala from southwest China at seven constant temperatures (16-34°C). Isomegalen and isomorphen diagrams were constructed based on the larval length and time for each developmental event (first ecdysis, second ecdysis, wandering, pupariation, and eclosion), at each temperature. A thermal summation model was constructed by estimating the developmental threshold temperature D0 and the thermal summation constant K. The thermal summation model indicated that, for complete development from egg hatching to eclosion, D0 = 9.07 ± 0.54°C and K = 3991.07 ± 187.26 h °C. This reference can increase the accuracy of estimations of postmortem intervals in China by predicting the growth of C. megacephala. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

In rape trauma PTSD, patient characteristics indicate which trauma-focused treatment they are most likely to complete.

PubMed

Keefe, John R; Wiltsey Stirman, Shannon; Cohen, Zachary D; DeRubeis, Robert J; Smith, Brian N; Resick, Patricia A

2018-04-01

Dropout rates for effective therapies for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can be high, especially in practice settings. Although clinicians have intuitions regarding what treatment patients may complete, there are few systematic data to drive those judgments. A multivariable model of dropout risk was constructed with randomized clinical trial data (n = 160) comparing prolonged exposure (PE) and cognitive processing therapy (CPT) for rape-induced PTSD. A two-step bootstrapped variable selection algorithm was applied to identify moderators of dropout as a function of treatment condition. Employing identified moderators in a model, fivefold cross-validation yielded estimates of dropout probability for each patient in each condition. Dropout rates between patients who did and did not receive their model-indicated treatment were compared. Despite equivalent dropout rates across treatments, patients assigned to their model-indicated treatment were significantly less likely to drop out relative to patients who did not (relative risk = 0.49 [95% CI: 0.29-0.82]). Moderators included in the model were: childhood physical abuse, current relationship conflict, anger, and being a racial minority, all of which were associated with higher likelihood of dropout in PE than CPT. Individual differences among patients affect the likelihood they will complete a particular treatment, and clinicians can consider these moderators in treatment planning. In the future, treatment selection models could be used to increase the percentage of patients who will receive a full course of treatment, but replication and extension of such models, and consideration of how best to integrate them into routine practice, are needed. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development of an agricultural job-exposure matrix for British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Wood, David; Astrakianakis, George; Lang, Barbara; Le, Nhu; Bert, Joel

2002-09-01

Farmers in British Columbia (BC), Canada have been shown to have unexplained elevated proportional mortality rates for several cancers. Because agricultural exposures have never been documented systematically in BC, a quantitative agricultural Job-exposure matrix (JEM) was developed containing exposure assessments from 1950 to 1998. This JEM was developed to document historical exposures and to facilitate future epidemiological studies. Available information regarding BC farming practices was compiled and checklists of potential exposures were produced for each crop. Exposures identified included chemical, biological, and physical agents. Interviews with farmers and agricultural experts were conducted using the checklists as a starting point. This allowed the creation of an initial or 'potential' JEM based on three axes: exposure agent, 'type of work' and time. The 'type of work' axis was determined by combining several variables: region, crop, job title and task. This allowed for a complete description of exposures. Exposure assessments were made quantitatively, where data allowed, or by a dichotomous variable (exposed/unexposed). Quantitative calculations were divided into re-entry and application scenarios. 'Re-entry' exposures were quantified using a standard exposure model with some modification while application exposure estimates were derived using data from the North American Pesticide Handlers Exposure Database (PHED). As expected, exposures differed between crops and job titles both quantitatively and qualitatively. Of the 290 agents included in the exposure axis; 180 were pesticides. Over 3000 estimates of exposure were conducted; 50% of these were quantitative. Each quantitative estimate was at the daily absorbed dose level. Exposure estimates were then rated as high, medium, or low based on comparing them with their respective oral chemical reference dose (RfD) or Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI). This data was mainly obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System database. Of the quantitative estimates, 74% were rated as low (< 100%) and only 10% were rated as high (>500%). The JEM resulting from this study fills a void concerning exposures for BC farmers and farm workers. While only limited validation of assessments were possible, this JEM can serve as a benchmark for future studies. Preliminary analysis at the BC Cancer Agency (BCCA) using the JEM with prostate cancer records from a large cancer and occupation study/survey has already shown promising results. Development of this JEM provides a useful model for developing historical quantitative exposure estimates where is very little documented information available.

Immunization effects of a communication intervention to promote preteen HPV vaccination in primary care practices.

PubMed

Cates, Joan R; Crandell, Jamie L; Diehl, Sandra J; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera

2018-01-02

HPV vaccination at the recommended ages of 11-12 is highly effective yet has stalled well below the goal of 80% of the population. We evaluated a statewide practice-based communication intervention (tools: brochures, posters, online training for providers and resources for parents, video game for preteens) to persuade parents, preteens and providers to vaccinate against HPV. The 9-month intervention started May 1, 2015. We compared vaccine initiation and completion rates over three 9-month periods (baseline, intervention, post-intervention) between practices enrolled in the intervention and a comparable comparison group. All practices reported to the North Carolina Immunization Registry (NCIR) and had at least 100 11- and 12-year-olds who had not completed the HPV vaccine series. Of 175 eligible practices, the 14 intervention practices included 19,398 individuals and the 161 comparison practices included 127,896 individuals. An extended Cox model was used to test the intervention effect. The intervention had a significant effect on both initiation and completion during the intervention and post-intervention periods; the estimated hazard ratio (HR) for initiation was 1.17 (p = .004) during the intervention and 1.11 (p = .005) post-intervention. Likewise, completion during the intervention period was 17% higher in intervention practices, after controlling for baseline differences. This effect increased in the post-intervention period to 30% higher (p = .03). Individuals in the intervention practices were 17% more likely to initiate and complete HPV vaccination than in the comparison practices during the intervention period and the effect was sustained post-intervention. This intervention is promising for increasing rates of HPV vaccination at ages 11-12. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The risk of microbial keratitis with overnight corneal reshaping lenses.

PubMed

Bullimore, Mark A; Sinnott, Loraine T; Jones-Jordan, Lisa A

2013-09-01

To estimate the incidence of microbial keratitis (MK) associated with overnight corneal reshaping contact lenses and to compare rates in children and adults. A retrospective study of randomly selected practitioners, stratified by order volume and lens company, was conducted. Practitioners were invited to participate and those agreeing were asked to provide deidentified patient information for up to 50 lens orders and to complete a comprehensive event form for any of these patients who have attended an unscheduled visit for a painful red eye. Duration of contact lens wear was calculated from the original fitting date or January 2005 (whichever was later) to when the patient was last seen by the practitioner wearing the lenses on a regular basis. Cases of MK were classified by majority decision of a 5-member expert panel. For the 191 practitioners who could be contacted, 119 (62%) agreed to participate. Subsequently, 11 withdrew, 22 did not respond, and 86 (43%) returned completed forms corresponding to 2202 lens orders and 1494 patients. Limiting the sample to those patients with at least 3 months of documented contact lens wear since 2005 resulted in a sample of 1317 patients; 640 adults (49%) and 677 children (51%) representing 2599 patient-years of wear (adults = 1164; children = 1435). Eight events of corneal infiltrates associated with a painful red eye were reported (six in children and two in adults). Two were classified as MK. Both occurred in children but neither resulted in a loss of visual acuity. The overall estimated incidence of MK is 7.7 per 10,000 years of wear (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.9 to 27.8). For children, the estimated incidence of MK is 13.9 per 10,000 patient-years (95% CI = 1.7 to 50.4). For adults, the estimated incidence of MK is 0 per 10,000 patient-years (95% CI = 0 to 31.7). The risk of MK with overnight corneal reshaping contact lenses is similar to that with other overnight modalities. The fact that the CIs for the rates estimated overlap should not be interpreted as evidence of no difference. True differences fewer than 50 cases per 10,000 patient-years were beyond the study's power of detection.

Democratization and Political Change as Threats to Collective Sentiments: Testing Durkheim in Russia

PubMed Central

PRIDEMORE, WILLIAM ALEX; KIM, SANG-WEON

2006-01-01

Durkheim argued that acute political crises result in increased homicide rates because they pose a threat to sentiments about the collective. Though crucial to Durkheim’s work on homicide, this idea remains untested. The authors took advantage of the natural experiment of the collapse of the Soviet Union to examine this hypothesis. Using data from Russian regions (N = 78) and controlling for measures of anomie and other covariates, the authors estimated the association between political change and change in homicide rates between 1991 and 2000. Results indicated that regions exhibiting less support for the Communist Party in 2000 (and thus greater change in political ideals because the Party had previously exercised complete control) were regions with greater increases in homicide rates. Thus, while democratization may be a positive development relative to the Communist juggernaut of the past, it appears that the swift political change in Russia is partially responsible for the higher rates of violence there following the collapse of the Soviet Union. PMID:16880894

Democratization and Political Change as Threats to Collective Sentiments: Testing Durkheim in Russia.

PubMed

Pridemore, William Alex; Kim, Sang-Weon

2006-05-01

Durkheim argued that acute political crises result in increased homicide rates because they pose a threat to sentiments about the collective. Though crucial to Durkheim's work on homicide, this idea remains untested. The authors took advantage of the natural experiment of the collapse of the Soviet Union to examine this hypothesis. Using data from Russian regions (N = 78) and controlling for measures of anomie and other covariates, the authors estimated the association between political change and change in homicide rates between 1991 and 2000. Results indicated that regions exhibiting less support for the Communist Party in 2000 (and thus greater change in political ideals because the Party had previously exercised complete control) were regions with greater increases in homicide rates. Thus, while democratization may be a positive development relative to the Communist juggernaut of the past, it appears that the swift political change in Russia is partially responsible for the higher rates of violence there following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Modified Maxium Likelihood Estimation Method for Completely Separated and Quasi-Completely Separated Data for a Dose-Response Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

McCullagh, P.; Nelder, J.A. Generalized Linear Model , 2nd ed.; Chapman and Hall: London, 1989. 7. Johnston, J. Econometric Methods, 3rd ed.; McGraw...FOR A DOSE-RESPONSE MODEL ECBC-TN-068 Kyong H. Park Steven J. Lagan RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE August 2015 Approved for public release...Likelihood Estimation Method for Completely Separated and Quasi-Completely Separated Data for a Dose-Response Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

Total petroleum system assessment of undiscovered resources in the giant Barnett Shale continuous (unconventional) gas accumulation, Fort Worth Basin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollastro, R.M.

2007-01-01

Undiscovered natural gas having potential for additions to reserves in the Mississippian Barnett Shale of the Fort Worth Basin, north-central Texas, was assessed using the total petroleum system assessment unit concept and a cell-based methodology for continuous-type (Unconventional) resources. The Barnett-Paleozoic total petroleum system is defined in the Bend arch-Fort Worth Basin as encompassing the area in which the organic-rich Barnett is the primary source rock for oil and gas produced from Paleozoic carbonate and clastic reservoirs. Exploration, technology, and drilling in the Barnett Shale play have rapidly evolved in recent years, with about 3500 vertical and 1000 horizontal wells completed in the Barnett through 2005 and more than 85% of the them completed since 1999. Using framework geology and historical production data, assessment of the Barnett Shale was performed by the U.S. Geological Survey using vertical wells at the peak of vertical well completions and before a transition to completions with horizontal wells. The assessment was performed after (1) mapping critical geological and geochemical parameters to define assessment unit areas with future potential, (2) defining distributions of drainage area (cell size) and estimating ultimate recovery per cell, and (3) estimating future success rates. Two assessment units are defined and assessed for the Barnett Shale continuous gas accumulation, resulting in a total mean undiscovered volume having potential for additions to reserves of 26.2 TCFG. The greater Newark East fracture-barrier continuous Barnett Shale gas assessment unit represents a core-producing area where thick, organic-rich, siliceous Barnett Shale is within the thermal window for gas generation (Ro ??? 1.1%) and is overlain and underlain by impermeable limestone barriers (Pennsylvanian Marble Falls Limestone and Ordovician Viola Limestone, respectively) that serve to confine induced fractures during well completion to maximize gas recovery. The extended continuous Barnett Shale gas assessment unit, which had been less explored, defines a geographic area where Barnett Shale is (1) within the thermal window for gas generation, (2) greater than 100 ft (30 m) thick, and (3) where at least one impermeable limestone barrier is absent. Mean undiscovered gas having potential for additions to reserves in the greater Newark East assessment unit is estimated at 14.6 tcf, and in the less tested extended assessment unit, a mean resource is estimated at 11.6 TCFG. A third hypothetical basin-arch Barnett Shale oil assessment unit was defined but not assessed because of a lack of production data. Copyright ?? 2007. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Heating and Cooling Rates With an Esophageal Heat Exchange System.

PubMed

Kalasbail, Prathima; Makarova, Natalya; Garrett, Frank; Sessler, Daniel I

2018-04-01

The Esophageal Cooling Device circulates warm or cool water through an esophageal heat exchanger, but warming and cooling efficacy in patients remains unknown. We therefore determined heat exchange rates during warming and cooling. Nineteen patients completed the trial. All had general endotracheal anesthesia for nonthoracic surgery. Intraoperative heat transfer was measured during cooling (exchanger fluid at 7°C) and warming (fluid at 42°C). Each was evaluated for 30 minutes, with the initial condition determined randomly, starting at least 40 minutes after induction of anesthesia. Heat transfer rate was estimated from fluid flow through the esophageal heat exchanger and inflow and outflow temperatures. Core temperature was estimated from a zero-heat-flux thermometer positioned on the forehead. Mean heat transfer rate during warming was 18 (95% confidence interval, 16-20) W, which increased core temperature at a rate of 0.5°C/h ± 0.6°C/h (mean ± standard deviation). During cooling, mean heat transfer rate was -53 (-59 to -48) W, which decreased core temperature at a rate of 0.9°C/h ± 0.9°C/h. Esophageal warming transferred 18 W which is considerably less than the 80 W reported with lower or upper body forced-air covers. However, esophageal warming can be used to supplement surface warming or provide warming in cases not amenable to surface warming. Esophageal cooling transferred more than twice as much heat as warming, consequent to the much larger difference between core and circulating fluid temperature with cooling (29°C) than warming (6°C). Esophageal cooling extracts less heat than endovascular catheters but can be used to supplement catheter-based cooling or possibly replace them in appropriate patients.

Rapid growth and concerted sexual transitions by a bloom of the harmful dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense (Dinophyceae)

PubMed Central

Velo‐Suárez, Lourdes; Ralston, David K.; Fox, Sophia E.; Sehein, Taylor R.; Shalapyonok, Alexi; Sosik, Heidi M.; Olson, Robert J.; Anderson, Donald M.

2015-01-01

Abstract Transitions between life cycle stages by the harmful dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense are critical for the initiation and termination of its blooms. To quantify these transitions in a single population, an Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB), was deployed in Salt Pond (Eastham, Massachusetts), a small, tidally flushed kettle pond that hosts near annual, localized A. fundyense blooms. Machine‐based image classifiers differentiating A. fundyense life cycle stages were developed and results were compared to manually corrected IFCB samples, manual microscopy‐based estimates of A. fundyense abundance, previously published data describing prevalence of the parasite Amoebophrya, and a continuous culture of A. fundyense infected with Amoebophrya. In Salt Pond, a development phase of sustained vegetative division lasted approximately 3 weeks and was followed by a rapid and near complete conversion to small, gamete cells. The gametic period (∼3 d) coincided with a spike in the frequency of fusing gametes (up to 5% of A. fundyense images) and was followed by a zygotic phase (∼4 d) during which cell sizes returned to their normal range but cell division and diel vertical migration ceased. Cell division during bloom development was strongly phased, enabling estimation of daily rates of division, which were more than twice those predicted from batch cultures grown at similar temperatures in replete medium. Data from the Salt Pond deployment provide the first continuous record of an A. fundyense population through its complete bloom cycle and demonstrate growth and sexual induction rates much higher than are typically observed in culture. PMID:27667858

Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history

PubMed Central

Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

2015-01-01

Background Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. Methods A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from males with no PC family history (without PC in first, second, or third degree relatives). RRs were determined for a variety of constellations, for example, number of first through third degree relatives; named (grandfather, father, uncle, cousins, brothers); maternal, paternal relationships, and age of onset. Results In the 635,443 males analyzed, 18,105 had PC. First-degree RRs ranged from 2.46 (=1 first-degree relative affected, CI = 2.39–2.53) to 7.65 (=4 first-degree relatives affected, CI = 6.28–9.23). Second-degree RRs for probands with 0 affected first-degree relatives ranged from 1.51 (≥1 second-degree relative affected, CI = 1.47–1.56) to 3.09 (≥5 second-degree relatives affected, CI = 2.32–4.03). Third-degree RRs with 0 affected first- and 0 affected second-degree relatives ranged from 1.15 (≥1 affected third-degree relative, CI = 1.12–1.19) to 1.50 (≥5 affected third-degree relatives, CI = 1.35–1.66). RRs based on age at diagnosis were higher for earlier age at diagnoses; for example, RR = 5.54 for ≥1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years (CI = 1.12–1.19) and RR = 1.78 for >1 second-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, CI = 1.33, 2.33. RRs for equivalent maternal versus paternal family history were not significantly different. Conclusions A more complete PC family history using close and distant relatives and age at diagnosis results in a wider range of estimates of individual RR that are potentially more accurate than RRs estimated from summary family history. The presence of PC in second- and even third-degree relatives contributes significantly to risk. Maternal family history is just as significant as paternal family history. PC RRs based on a proband's complete constellation of affected relatives will allow patients and care providers to make more informed screening, monitoring, and treatment decisions. Prostate 75:390–398, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25408531

Moments and Root-Mean-Square Error of the Bayesian MMSE Estimator of Classification Error in the Gaussian Model.

PubMed

Zollanvari, Amin; Dougherty, Edward R

2014-06-01

The most important aspect of any classifier is its error rate, because this quantifies its predictive capacity. Thus, the accuracy of error estimation is critical. Error estimation is problematic in small-sample classifier design because the error must be estimated using the same data from which the classifier has been designed. Use of prior knowledge, in the form of a prior distribution on an uncertainty class of feature-label distributions to which the true, but unknown, feature-distribution belongs, can facilitate accurate error estimation (in the mean-square sense) in circumstances where accurate completely model-free error estimation is impossible. This paper provides analytic asymptotically exact finite-sample approximations for various performance metrics of the resulting Bayesian Minimum Mean-Square-Error (MMSE) error estimator in the case of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) in the multivariate Gaussian model. These performance metrics include the first, second, and cross moments of the Bayesian MMSE error estimator with the true error of LDA, and therefore, the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) error of the estimator. We lay down the theoretical groundwork for Kolmogorov double-asymptotics in a Bayesian setting, which enables us to derive asymptotic expressions of the desired performance metrics. From these we produce analytic finite-sample approximations and demonstrate their accuracy via numerical examples. Various examples illustrate the behavior of these approximations and their use in determining the necessary sample size to achieve a desired RMS. The Supplementary Material contains derivations for some equations and added figures.

Aerobic Growth on Nitroglycerin as the Sole Carbon, Nitrogen, and Energy Source by a Mixed Bacterial Culture

PubMed Central

Accashian, John V.; Vinopal, Robert T.; Kim, Byung-Joon; Smets, Barth F.

1998-01-01

Nitroglycerin (glycerol trinitrate [GTN]), an explosive and vasodilatory compound, was metabolized by mixed microbial cultures from aeration tank sludge previously exposed to GTN. Aerobic enrichment cultures removed GTN rapidly in the absence of a supplemental carbon source. Complete denitration of GTN, provided as the sole C and N source, was observed in aerobic batch cultures and proceeded stepwise via the dinitrate and mononitrate isomers, with successive steps occurring at lower rates. The denitration of all glycerol nitrate esters was found to be concomitant, and 1,2-glycerol dinitrate (1,2-GDN) and 2-glycerol mononitrate (2-GMN) were the primary GDN and GMN isomers observed. Denitration of GTN resulted in release of primarily nitrite-N, indicating a reductive denitration mechanism. Biomass growth at the expense of GTN was verified by optical density and plate count measurements. The kinetics of GTN biotransformation were 10-fold faster than reported for complete GTN denitration under anaerobic conditions. A maximum specific growth rate of 0.048 ± 0.005 h−1 (mean ± standard deviation) was estimated for the mixed culture at 25°C. Evidence of GTN toxicity was observed at GTN concentrations above 0.3 mM. To our knowledge, this is the first report of complete denitration of GTN used as a primary growth substrate by a bacterial culture under aerobic conditions. PMID:9726874

Improving Homework Completion of Students through Tutored Study Hall

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dicken, Kori S.; Foreman, Carol D.; Jensen, Robin L.; Sherwood, Justin A.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a guided study hall on homework completion. Two groups of students were analyzed in their homework completion rates. Homework completion rates of the students that participated in Site A were reviewed in their five core subjects, while the homework completion rates of the students at Site B…

The effect of early-life education on later-life mortality.

PubMed

Black, Dan A; Hsu, Yu-Chieh; Taylor, Lowell J

2015-12-01

Many studies link cross-state variation in compulsory schooling laws to early-life educational attainment, thereby providing a plausible way to investigate the causal impact of education on various lifetime outcomes. We use this strategy to estimate the effect of education on older-age mortality of individuals born in the early twentieth century U.S. Our key innovation is to combine U.S. Census data and the complete Vital Statistics records to form precise mortality estimates by sex, birth cohort, and birth state. In turn we find that virtually all of the variation in these mortality rates is captured by cohort effects and state effects alone, making it impossible to reliably tease out any additional impact due to changing educational attainment induced by state-level changes in compulsory schooling. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

19 CFR 159.38 - Rates for estimated duties.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... TREASURY (CONTINUED) LIQUIDATION OF DUTIES Conversion of Foreign Currency § 159.38 Rates for estimated duties. For purposes of calculating estimated duties, the port director shall use the rate or rates... 19 Customs Duties 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rates for estimated duties. 159.38 Section 159.38...

Variation in heart rate and blood lactate concentration in freestyle kytesurfing.

PubMed

Camps, A; Vercruyssen, F; Brisswalter, J

2011-06-01

The aim of this paper was to evaluate the physiological demands of freestyle kitesurfing. Ten elite subjects performed an incremental running test on a treadmill and a three 7 min simulated freestyle heats of kitesurfing in MW (Midwind) condition ranging from 15 to 22 knots. Oxygen uptake (VO(2)) was estimated from the heart rate (HR) recorded during the freestyle trial using the individual HR-VO(2) relationship determined during the incremental test. Blood lactate concentration [Lab] was measured at rest and 3 min after the exercise completion. 3 experienced kitesurfers acted as judges to better simulate competition conditions. Linear relationship was demonstrated between scores and % HR(max) on water (r=-0.764, P<0.05), HR(max) on water (r=-0.684, P<0.05) estimated VO(2) on water (r=-0.724, P<0.05), HR on water (r=0.709, P<0.05), % VO(2) on water (r=0.740, P<0.05), final [Lab] (r=-0.884, P<0.05), anaerobic threshold (AT) (r=0.836, P<0.05), HR in AT (r=0.748, P<0.05) and ranking (r=-0,924, P<0.05), mean HR and estimated VO(2) values represented, respectively 85.4±3.0% of maximal heart rate and 80.0±4.5% of maximal oxygen uptake. Mid values for [Lab] were observed at the end of crossing trial (5.2±0.8 mmol L(-1)). This first analysis of freestyle kitesurfing suggests that the energy demand is sustained by both aerobic and anaerobic metabolism during a MW condition and freestyle event of kitesurfing.

Estimated costs associated with improving influenza vaccination for health care personnel in a multihospital health system.

PubMed

Lin, Chyongchiou Jeng; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Zimmerman, Richard K

2012-02-01

Health care personnel (HCP) are an important target group for influenza vaccination because of their close contact with vulnerable patients. Annual influenza vaccination for HCP is recommended to reduce the spread of influenza and decrease staff illness and absenteeism. UPMC Health System, the largest health system in western Pennsylvania, established a quality improvement project to increase influenza vaccination among its > 50,000 employees by implementing survey-informed interventions. At the completion of the intervention, estimates were prepared of the costs associated with implementing a multifaceted quality improvement intervention to improve HCP influenza vaccination rates in a large multihospital health system. All 11 participating hospitals provided education and publicity regarding influenza vaccination and provided vaccine free of charge at mass vaccination clinics. Two additional strategies-mobile vaccination carts and incentives-were implemented in a factorial design such that the hospitals had either carts, incentives, both strategies, or neither. The minimum and maximum costs per vaccinated employee by type of intervention were estimated using cost data for vaccine/supplies, labor, incentives, and administration. The average costs per vaccinated employee ranged from $24.55 to $30.43 for incentives and carts, $20.66 to $25.57 for incentives, $23.24 to $26.54 for carts, and $18.03 to $20.60 for education and publicity only. Vaccination rates increased significantly but remained below ideal levels. Influenza vaccination rates among nonphysician HCP can be improved using various interventions at a low cost per vaccinated employee. The costs for these nonmandatory interventions were modest compared with the costs typically associated with influenza-related absenteeism.

Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Brief Adolescent Gambling Screen (BAGS)

PubMed Central

Stinchfield, Randy; Wynne, Harold; Wiebe, Jamie; Tremblay, Joel

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate the initial reliability, validity and classification accuracy of a new brief screen for adolescent problem gambling. The three-item Brief Adolescent Gambling Screen (BAGS) was derived from the nine-item Gambling Problem Severity Subscale (GPSS) of the Canadian Adolescent Gambling Inventory (CAGI) using a secondary analysis of existing CAGI data. The sample of 105 adolescents included 49 females and 56 males from Canada who completed the CAGI, a self-administered measure of DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for Pathological Gambling, and a clinician-administered diagnostic interview including the DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for Pathological Gambling (both of which were adapted to yield DSM-5 Gambling Disorder diagnosis). A stepwise multivariate discriminant function analysis selected three GPSS items as the best predictors of a diagnosis of Gambling Disorder. The BAGS demonstrated satisfactory estimates of reliability, validity and classification accuracy and was equivalent to the nine-item GPSS of the CAGI and the BAGS was more accurate than the SOGS-RA. The BAGS estimates of classification accuracy include hit rate = 0.95, sensitivity = 0.88, specificity = 0.98, false positive rate = 0.02, and false negative rate = 0.12. Since these classification estimates are preliminary, derived from a relatively small sample size, and based upon the same sample from which the items were selected, it will be important to cross-validate the BAGS with larger and more diverse samples. The BAGS should be evaluated for use as a screening tool in both clinical and school settings as well as epidemiological surveys. PMID:29312064

Decision-making, sensitivity to reward, and attrition in weight-management

PubMed Central

Koritzky, Gilly; Dieterle, Camille; Rice, Chantelle; Jordan, Katie; Bechara, Antoine

2014-01-01

Objective Attrition is a common problem in weight-management. Understanding the risk factors for attrition should enhance professionals’ ability to increase completion rates and improve health outcomes for more individuals. We propose a model that draws upon neuropsychological knowledge on reward-sensitivity in obesity and overeating to predict attrition. Design & Methods 52 participants in a weight-management program completed a complex decision-making task.Decision-making characteristics – including sensitivity to reward – were further estimated using a quantitative model. Impulsivity and risk-taking measures were also administered. Results Consistent with the hypothesis that sensitivity to reward predicted attrition, program dropouts had higher sensitivity to reward than completers (p < 0.03). No differences were observed between completers and dropouts in initial BMI, age, employment status, or the number of prior weight-loss attempts (p ≥ 0.07). Completers had a slightly higher education level than dropouts, but its inclusion in the model did not increase predictive power. Impulsivity, delay of gratification, and risk-taking did not predict attrition, either. Conclusions Findings link attrition in weight-management to the neural mechanisms associated with reward-seeking and related influences on decision-making. Individual differences in the magnitude of response elicited by rewards may account for the relative difficulty experienced by dieters in adhering to treatment. PMID:24771588

On the catalysis of the electroweak vacuum decay by black holes at high temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canko, D.; Gialamas, I.; Jelic-Cizmek, G.; Riotto, A.; Tetradis, N.

2018-04-01

We study the effect of primordial black holes on the classical rate of nucleation of AdS regions within the standard electroweak vacuum at high temperature. We base our analysis on the assumption that, at temperatures much higher than the Hawking temperature, the main effect of the black hole is to distort the Higgs configuration dominating the transition to the new vacuum. We estimate the barrier for the transition by the ADM mass of this configuration, computed through the temperature-corrected Higgs potential. We find that the exponential suppression of the nucleation rate can be reduced significantly, or even eliminated completely, in the black-hole background if the Standard Model Higgs is coupled to gravity through the renormalizable term ξ R h^2.

Enhanced oil recovery utilizing high-angle wells in the Frontier Formation, Badger Basin Field, Park County, Wyoming. Final technical progress report, October 21, 1992--December 31, 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, J.P.; Fortmann, R.G.

1995-03-21

Badger Basin Field was discovered in 1931. Production is principally from low-permeability fractured sandstones of the Upper Cretaceous Frontier Formation. Though many wells initially produced at about 100 barrels of oil per day or more, they now produce at stripper rates. Only about 12% of the estimated 25 million barrels of oil originally in-place will be produced from the twenty-two attempted vertical completions. The goal of this joint project between Sierra Energy Company (Sierra) and the US Department of Energy (DOE) was to recover addition reserves at economic rates through the use of 3D seismic and horizontal drilling and completingmore » techniques.« less

Study on the threshold of a stochastic SIR epidemic model and its extensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dianli

2016-09-01

This paper provides a simple but effective method for estimating the threshold of a class of the stochastic epidemic models by use of the nonnegative semimartingale convergence theorem. Firstly, the threshold R0SIR is obtained for the stochastic SIR model with a saturated incidence rate, whose value is below 1 or above 1 will completely determine the disease to go extinct or prevail for any size of the white noise. Besides, when R0SIR > 1 , the system is proved to be convergent in time mean. Then, the threshold of the stochastic SIVS models with or without saturated incidence rate are also established by the same method. Comparing with the previously-known literatures, the related results are improved, and the method is simpler than before.

Classes of Split-Plot Response Surface Designs for Equivalent Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Peter A.; Kowalski, Scott M.; Vining, G. Geoffrey

2006-01-01

When planning an experimental investigation, we are frequently faced with factors that are difficult or time consuming to manipulate, thereby making complete randomization impractical. A split-plot structure differentiates between the experimental units associated with these hard-to-change factors and others that are relatively easy-to-change and provides an efficient strategy that integrates the restrictions imposed by the experimental apparatus. Several industrial and scientific examples are presented to illustrate design considerations encountered in the restricted randomization context. In this paper, we propose classes of split-plot response designs that provide an intuitive and natural extension from the completely randomized context. For these designs, the ordinary least squares estimates of the model are equivalent to the generalized least squares estimates. This property provides best linear unbiased estimators and simplifies model estimation. The design conditions that allow for equivalent estimation are presented enabling design construction strategies to transform completely randomized Box-Behnken, equiradial, and small composite designs into a split-plot structure.

Tuberculosis treatment discontinuation and symptom persistence: an observational study of Bihar, India’s public care system covering >100,000,000 inhabitants

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The effectiveness of India’s TB control programs depend critically on patients completing appropriate treatment. Discontinuing treatment prior to completion can leave patients infectious and symptomatic. Developing strategies to reduce early discontinuation requires characterizing its patterns and their link to symptom persistence. Methods The 2011 BEST-TB survey (360 clusters, 11 districts) sampled patients (n = 1007) from Bihar’s public healthcare system who had initiated treatment >6 months prior to being interviewed, administering questionnaires to patients about TB treatment duration and symptoms, prior treatment, and sociodemographic characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression models estimated the risk of treatment discontinuation for these characteristics. Similar models estimated probabilities of symptom persistence to 25 weeks post-treatment initiation adjusting for the same predictors and treatment duration. All models included district fixed effects, robust standard errors, and adjustments for the survey sampling design. Treatment default timing and symptom persistence relied solely on self-report. Results 24% of patients discontinued treatment prior to 25 weeks. Higher likelihood of discontinuation occurred in those who had failed to complete previous TB treatment episodes (aOR: 4.77 [95% CI: 1.98 – 11.53]) and those seeing multiple providers (3.67 per provider [1.94 – 6.95]). Symptoms persisted in 42% of patients discontinuing treatment within 5 weeks versus 28% for completing 25 weeks of treatment. Symptom persistence was more likely for those with prior TB treatment (aOR: 5.05 [1.90 – 13.38]); poorer patients (2.94 [1.51 – 5.72]); and women (1.79 [1.07 – 2.99]). Predictors for treatment discontinuation prior to 16 weeks were similar. Conclusions Premature TB treatment discontinuation and symptom persistence is particularly high among individuals who have failed to complete treatment for a prior episode. Strategies to identify and promote treatment completion in this group appear promising. Likewise, effective TB regimens of shortened duration currently in trials may eventually help to achieve higher treatment completion rates. PMID:24886314

A Novel Approach to Practice-Based Learning and Improvement Using a Web-Based Audit and Feedback Module

PubMed Central

Boggan, Joel C.; Cheely, George; Shah, Bimal R.; Heffelfinger, Randy; Springall, Deanna; Thomas, Samantha M.; Zaas, Aimee; Bae, Jonathan

2014-01-01

Background Systematically engaging residents in large programs in quality improvement (QI) is challenging. Objective To coordinate a shared QI project in a large residency program using an online tool. Methods A web-based QI tool guided residents through a 2-phase evaluation of performance of foot examinations in patients with diabetes. In phase 1, residents completed reviews of health records with online data entry. Residents were then presented with personal performance data relative to peers and were prompted to develop improvement plans. In phase 2, residents again reviewed personal performance. Rates of performance were compared at the program and clinic levels for each phase, with data presented for residents. Acceptability was measured by the number of residents completing each phase. Feasibility was measured by estimated faculty, programmer, and administrator time and costs. Results Seventy-nine of 86 eligible residents (92%) completed improvement plans and reviewed 1471 patients in phase 1, whereas 68 residents (79%) reviewed 1054 patient charts in phase 2. Rates of performance of examination increased significantly between phases (from 52% to 73% for complete examination, P < .001). Development of the tool required 130 hours of programmer time. Project analysis and management required 6 hours of administrator and faculty time monthly. Conclusions An online tool developed and implemented for program-wide QI initiatives successfully engaged residents to participate in QI activities. Residents using this tool demonstrated improvement in a selected quality target. This tool could be adapted by other graduate medical education programs or for faculty development. PMID:26279782

How does selfing affect the dynamics of selfish transposable elements?

PubMed

Boutin, Thibaud S; Le Rouzic, Arnaud; Capy, Pierre

2012-03-07

Many theoretical models predicting the dynamics of transposable elements (TEs) in genomes, populations, and species have already been proposed. However, most of them only focus on populations of sexual diploid individuals, and TE dynamics in populations partly composed by autogamous individuals remains poorly investigated. To estimate the impact of selfing on TE dynamics, the short- and long-term evolution of TEs was simulated in outcrossing populations with various proportions of selfing individuals. Selfing has a deep impact on TE dynamics: the higher the selfing rate, the lower the probability of invasion. Already known non-equilibrium dynamics (complete loss, domestication, cyclical invasion of TEs) can all be described whatever the mating system. However, their pattern and their respective frequencies greatly depend on the selfing rate. For instance, in cyclical dynamics resulting from interactions between autonomous and non-autonomous copies, cycles are faster when the selfing rate increases. Interestingly, an abrupt change in the mating system from sexuality to complete asexuality leads to the loss of all the elements over a few hundred generations. In general, for intermediate selfing rates, the transposition activity remains maintained. Our theoretical results evidence that a clear and systematic contrast in TE content according to the mating system is expected, with a smooth transition for intermediate selfing rates. Several parameters impact the TE copy number, and all dynamics described in allogamous populations can be also observed in partly autogamous species. This study thus provides new insights to understand the complex signal from empirical comparison of closely related species with different mating systems.

The cost of implementation of the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988--the example of pediatric office-based cholesterol screening.

PubMed

Tershakovec, A M; Brannon, S D; Bennett, M J; Shannon, B M

1995-08-01

To measure the additional costs of office-based laboratory testing due to the implementation of the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988 (CLIA '88), using cholesterol screening for children as an example. Four- to ten-year-old children who received their well child care at one of seven participating pediatric practices were screened for hypercholesterolemia. The average number of analyses per day and days per month were derived from the volume of testing completed by the practices. Nurses and technicians time in the screening process were measured and personnel costs were calculated based on salary and fringe benefit rates. Costs of supplies, analyzing control samples, instrument calibration, and instrument depreciation were included. Costs estimates of screening were then completed. CLIA '88 implementation costs were derived from appropriate proficiency testing and laboratory inspection programs. In six practices completing a low volume of testing, 2807 children (5 to 6 children per week) were screened during the observation period, while 414 (about 25 children per week) were screened in one high-volume practice implementing universal screening over a 4-month period. For the six low-volume practices, the cost of screening was $10.60 per child. This decreased to $5.47 for the high-volume practice. Estimated costs of CLIA '88 implementation, including additional proficiency testing and laboratory inspection, added $3.20 per test for the low-volume practices, and $0.71 per test for the high-volume testing. Implementation of CLIA adds significantly to the cost of office-based chemistry laboratory screening. Despite these additional expenses, the cost of testing is still within a reasonable charge for laboratory testing, and is highly sensitive to the volume of tests completed.

Substitution rate and natural selection in parvovirus B19

PubMed Central

Stamenković, Gorana G.; Ćirković, Valentina S.; Šiljić, Marina M.; Blagojević, Jelena V.; Knežević, Aleksandra M.; Joksić, Ivana D.; Stanojević, Maja P.

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate substitution rate and imprints of natural selection on parvovirus B19 genotype 1. Studied datasets included 137 near complete coding B19 genomes (positions 665 to 4851) for phylogenetic and substitution rate analysis and 146 and 214 partial genomes for selection analyses in open reading frames ORF1 and ORF2, respectively, collected 1973–2012 and including 9 newly sequenced isolates from Serbia. Phylogenetic clustering assigned majority of studied isolates to G1A. Nucleotide substitution rate for total coding DNA was 1.03 (0.6–1.27) x 10−4 substitutions/site/year, with higher values for analyzed genome partitions. In spite of the highest evolutionary rate, VP2 codons were found to be under purifying selection with rare episodic positive selection, whereas codons under diversifying selection were found in the unique part of VP1, known to contain B19 immune epitopes important in persistent infection. Analyses of overlapping gene regions identified nucleotide positions under opposite selective pressure in different ORFs, suggesting complex evolutionary mechanisms of nucleotide changes in B19 viral genomes. PMID:27775080

Among a sample of Iranian students, adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder is related to childhood ADHD, but not to age, gender, socioeconomic status, or birth order--an exploratory study.

PubMed

Jahangard, Leila; Haghighi, Mohammad; Bajoghli, Hafez; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2013-10-01

The aim of the present study was to explore the prevalence of adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in young adult Iranian students and to examine gender, birth order, socioeconomic status (SES), and history of ADHD as potential predictors of adult ADHD. A total of 387 young adult students (mean age: 19.6 years; 66.3% females) completed the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale-V1.1 symptom checklist to assess current symptoms of ADHD and the Wender Utah Rating Scale to assess symptoms of ADHD in childhood and adolescence. Experts' ratings were based on Wender-Reimherr Interview. Self-rated and expert-rated prevalence rates were 16.5% and 13.4%, respectively. Past symptoms of ADHD were correlated with current symptoms. Childhood ADHD, current hyperactivity, and disorganization predicted current ADHD. Among a sample of Iranian students, the prevalence rates of ADHD were higher than estimated rates worldwide. Data also show child ADHD to be associated with adult ADHD; gender, age, birth order, and SES did not seem to influence current symptomatology.

Estimation of Energy Expenditure during Treadmill Exercise via Thermal Imaging.

PubMed

Jensen, Martin Møller; Poulsen, Mathias Krogh; Alldieck, Thiemo; Larsen, Ryan Godsk; Gade, Rikke; Moeslund, Thomas Baltzer; Franch, Jesper

2016-12-01

Noninvasive imaging of oxygen uptake may provide a useful tool for the quantification of energy expenditure during human locomotion. A novel thermal imaging method (optical flow) was validated against indirect calorimetry for the estimation of energy expenditure during human walking and running. Fourteen endurance-trained subjects completed a discontinuous incremental exercise test on a treadmill. Subjects performed 4-min intervals at 3, 5, and 7 km·h (walking) and at 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, and 18 km·h (running) with 30 s of rest between intervals. Heart rate, gas exchange, and mean accelerations of ankle, thigh, wrist, and hip were measured throughout the exercise test. A thermal camera (30 frames per second) was used to quantify optical flow, calculated as the movements of the limbs relative to the trunk (internal mechanical work) and vertical movement of the trunk (external vertical mechanical work). Heart rate, gross oxygen uptake (mL·kg·min) together with gross and net energy expenditure (J·kg·min) rose with increasing treadmill velocities, as did optical flow measurements and mean accelerations (g) of ankle, thigh, wrist, and hip. Oxygen uptake was linearly correlated with optical flow across all exercise intensities (R = 0.96, P < 0.0001; V˙O2 [mL·kg·min] = 7.35 + 9.85 × optical flow [arbitrary units]). Only 3-4 s of camera recording was required to estimate an optical flow value at each velocity. Optical flow measurements provide an accurate estimation of energy expenditure during horizontal walking and running. The technique offers a novel experimental method of estimating energy expenditure during human locomotion, without use of interfering equipment attached to the subject.

Economic Evaluation of Complete Revascularization for Patients with Multivessel Disease Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Barton, Garry R; Irvine, Lisa; Flather, Marcus; McCann, Gerry P; Curzen, Nick; Gershlick, Anthony H

2017-06-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of complete revascularization at index admission compared with infarct-related artery (IRA) treatment only, in patients with multivessel disease undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (P-PCI) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. An economic evaluation of a multicenter randomized trial was conducted, comparing complete revascularization at index admission to IRA-only P-PCI in patients with multivessel disease (12-month follow-up). Overall hospital costs (costs for P-PCI procedure(s), hospital length of stay, and any subsequent re-admissions) were estimated. Outcomes were major adverse cardiac events (MACEs, a composite of all-cause death, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure, and ischemia-driven revascularization) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) derived from the three-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire. Multiple imputation was undertaken. The mean incremental cost and effect, with associated 95% confidence intervals, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve were estimated. On the basis of 296 patients, the mean incremental overall hospital cost for complete revascularization was estimated to be -£215.96 (-£1390.20 to £958.29), compared with IRA-only, with a per-patient mean reduction in MACEs of 0.170 (0.044 to 0.296) and a QALY gain of 0.011 (-0.019 to 0.041). According to the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, the probability of complete revascularization being cost-effective was estimated to be 72.0% at a willingness-to-pay threshold value of £20,000 per QALY. Complete revascularization at index admission was estimated to be more effective (in terms of MACEs and QALYs) and cost-effective (overall costs were estimated to be lower and complete revascularization thereby dominated IRA-only). There was, however, some uncertainty associated with this decision. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementation of the Rauch-Tung-Striebel Smoother for Sensor Compatibility Correction of a Fixed-Wing Unmanned Air Vehicle

PubMed Central

Chan, Woei-Leong; Hsiao, Fei-Bin

2011-01-01

This paper presents a complete procedure for sensor compatibility correction of a fixed-wing Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV). The sensors consist of a differential air pressure transducer for airspeed measurement, two airdata vanes installed on an airdata probe for angle of attack (AoA) and angle of sideslip (AoS) measurement, and an Attitude and Heading Reference System (AHRS) that provides attitude angles, angular rates, and acceleration. The procedure is mainly based on a two pass algorithm called the Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother, which consists of a forward pass Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and a backward recursion smoother. On top of that, this paper proposes the implementation of the Wiener Type Filter prior to the RTS in order to avoid the complicated process noise covariance matrix estimation. Furthermore, an easy to implement airdata measurement noise variance estimation method is introduced. The method estimates the airdata and subsequently the noise variances using the ground speed and ascent rate provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS). It incorporates the idea of data regionality by assuming that some sort of statistical relation exists between nearby data points. Root mean square deviation (RMSD) is being employed to justify the sensor compatibility. The result shows that the presented procedure is easy to implement and it improves the UAV sensor data compatibility significantly. PMID:22163819

Civil Service Workforce Market Supply and the Effect on the Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) that may effect the Productivity Factors for Future NASA Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterk, Steve; Chesley, Stephen

2008-01-01

The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers on the horizon will leave a performance gap between younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This papers will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bimonthly (payroll data) for true FTE calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs solutions, from simple - full time equivalent (FTE) cost estimating relationships CERs, to complex - CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of different alternatives performance based cost estimating relationships (CERs) and how they get applied into the Center s forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.

Implementation of the Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother for sensor compatibility correction of a fixed-wing unmanned air vehicle.

PubMed

Chan, Woei-Leong; Hsiao, Fei-Bin

2011-01-01

This paper presents a complete procedure for sensor compatibility correction of a fixed-wing Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV). The sensors consist of a differential air pressure transducer for airspeed measurement, two airdata vanes installed on an airdata probe for angle of attack (AoA) and angle of sideslip (AoS) measurement, and an Attitude and Heading Reference System (AHRS) that provides attitude angles, angular rates, and acceleration. The procedure is mainly based on a two pass algorithm called the Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother, which consists of a forward pass Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and a backward recursion smoother. On top of that, this paper proposes the implementation of the Wiener Type Filter prior to the RTS in order to avoid the complicated process noise covariance matrix estimation. Furthermore, an easy to implement airdata measurement noise variance estimation method is introduced. The method estimates the airdata and subsequently the noise variances using the ground speed and ascent rate provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS). It incorporates the idea of data regionality by assuming that some sort of statistical relation exists between nearby data points. Root mean square deviation (RMSD) is being employed to justify the sensor compatibility. The result shows that the presented procedure is easy to implement and it improves the UAV sensor data compatibility significantly.

Potential for reduced methane and carbon dioxide emissions from livestock and pasture management in the tropics

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K.; Herrero, Mario

2010-01-01

We estimate the potential reductions in methane and carbon dioxide emissions from several livestock and pasture management options in the mixed and rangeland-based production systems in the tropics. The impacts of adoption of improved pastures, intensifying ruminant diets, changes in land-use practices, and changing breeds of large ruminants on the production of methane and carbon dioxide are calculated for two levels of adoption: complete adoption, to estimate the upper limit to reductions in these greenhouse gases (GHGs), and optimistic but plausible adoption rates taken from the literature, where these exist. Results are expressed both in GHG per ton of livestock product and in Gt CO2-eq. We estimate that the maximum mitigation potential of these options in the land-based livestock systems in the tropics amounts to approximately 7% of the global agricultural mitigation potential to 2030. Using historical adoption rates from the literature, the plausible mitigation potential of these options could contribute approximately 4% of global agricultural GHG mitigation. This could be worth on the order of $1.3 billion per year at a price of $20 per t CO2-eq. The household-level and sociocultural impacts of some of these options warrant further study, however, because livestock have multiple roles in tropical systems that often go far beyond their productive utility. PMID:20823225

Metabolic response of rectal cancer assessed by 18-FDG PET following chemoradiotherapy is prognostic for patient outcome.

PubMed

Yeung, J M C; Kalff, V; Hicks, R J; Drummond, E; Link, E; Taouk, Y; Michael, M; Ngan, S; Lynch, A C; Heriot, A G

2011-05-01

Complete pathological response has proven prognostic benefits in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Sequential 18-FDG PET may be an early surrogate for pathological response to chemoradiotherapy. The aim of this study was to identify whether metabolic response measured by FDG PET following chemoradiotherapy is prognostic for tumor recurrence and survival following neoadjuvant therapy and surgical treatment for primary rectal cancer. Patients with primary rectal cancer treated by long-course neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery had FDG PET performed before and 4 weeks after treatment, before surgical resection was performed. Retrospective chart review was undertaken for patient demographics, tumor staging, recurrence rates, and survival. : Between 2000 and 2007, 78 patients were identified (53 male, 25 female; median age, 64 y). After chemoradiotherapy, 37 patients (47%) had a complete metabolic response, 26 (33%) had a partial metabolic response, and 14 (18%) had no metabolic response as assessed by FDG PET (1 patient had missing data). However, only 4 patients (5%) had a complete pathological response. The median postoperative follow-up period was 3.1 years during which 14 patients (19%) had a recurrence: 2 local, 9 distant, and 3 with both local and distant. The estimated percentage without recurrence was 77% at 5 years (95% CI 66%-89%). There was an inverse relationship between FDG PET metabolic response and the incidence of recurrence within 3 years (P = .04). Kaplan-Meier analysis of FDG PET metabolic response and overall survival demonstrated a significant difference in survival among patients in the 3 arms: complete, partial, and no metabolic response (P = .04); the patients with complete metabolic response had the best prognosis. Complete or partial metabolic response on PET following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery predicts a lower local recurrence rate and improved survival compared with patients with no metabolic response. Metabolic response may be used to stratify prognosis in patients with rectal cancer.

Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

PubMed

Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

2003-10-01

Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

Association Between Incomplete Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy and Survival for Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Sun, Zhifei; Adam, Mohamed A.; Kim, Jina; Palta, Manisha; Czito, Brian G.; Migaly, John; Mantyh, Christopher R.

2017-01-01

Importance Failing to complete chemotherapy adversely affects survival in patients with colorectal cancer. However, the effect of incomplete delivery of neoadjuvant radiotherapy is unclear. Objective To determine whether incomplete radiotherapy delivery is associated with worse clinical outcomes and survival. Design, Setting, and Participants Data on 17 600 patients with stage II to III rectal adenocarcinoma from the 2006-2012 National Cancer Database who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by surgical resection were included. Multivariable regression methods were used to compare resection margin positivity, permanent colostomy rate, 30-day readmission, 90-day mortality, and overall survival between patients who received complete (45.0-50.4 Gy) and incomplete (<45.0 Gy) doses of radiation as preoperative therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome measure was overall survival; short-term perioperative and oncologic outcomes encompassing margin positivity, permanent ostomy rate, postoperative readmission, and postoperative mortality were also assessed. Results Among 17 600 patients included, 10 862 were men, with an overall median age of 59 years (range, 51-68 years). Of these, 874 patients (5.0%) received incomplete doses of neoadjuvant radiation. The median radiation dose received among those who did not achieve complete dosing was 34.2 Gy (interquartile range, 19.8-40.0 Gy). Female sex (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.69; 95% CI, 0.59-0.81; P < .001) and receiving radiotherapy at a different hospital than the one where surgery was performed (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.62-0.85; P < .001) were independent predictors of failing to achieve complete dosing; private insurance status was predictive of completing radiotherapy (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.16-2.21; P = .004). At 5-year follow-up, overall survival was improved among patients who received a complete course of radiotherapy (3086 [estimated survival probability, 73.2%] vs 133 [63.0%]; P < .001). After adjustment for demographic, clinical, and tumor characteristics, patients receiving a complete vs incomplete radiation dose had a similar resection margin positivity (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.72-1.35; P = .92), permanent colostomy rate (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.70-1.32; P = .81), 30-day readmission rate (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.67-1.27; P = .62), and 90-day mortality (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.33-1.54; P = .41). However, a complete radiation dose had a significantly lower risk of long-term mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59-0.84; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance Achieving a target radiation dose of 45.0 to 50.4 Gy is associated with a survival benefit in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Aligning all aspects of multimodal oncology care may increase the probability of completing neoadjuvant therapy. PMID:28273303

Patient medical costs for tuberculosis treatment and impact on adherence in China: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Charging for tuberculosis (TB) treatment could reduce completion rates, particularly in the poor. We identified and synthesised studies that measure costs of TB treatment, estimates of adherence and the potential impact of charging on treatment completion in China. Methods Inclusion criteria were primary research studies, including surveys and studies using qualitative methods, conducted in mainland China. We searched MEDLINE, PUBMED, EMBASE, Science Direct, HEED, CNKI to June 2010; and web pages of relevant Chinese and international organisations. Cost estimates were extracted, transformed, and expressed in absolute values and as a percentage of household income. Results Low income patients, defined at household or district level, pay a total of US$ 149 to 724 (RMB 1241 to 5228) for medical costs for a treatment course; as a percentage of annual household income, estimates range from 42% to 119%. One national survey showed 73% of TB patients at the time of the survey had interrupted or suspended treatment, and estimates from 9 smaller more recent studies showed that the proportion of patients at the time of the survey who had run out of drugs or were not taking them ranged from 3 to 25%. Synthesis of surveys and qualitative research indicate that cost is the most cited reason for default. Conclusions Despite a policy of free drug treatment for TB in China, health services charge all income groups, and costs are high. Adherence measured in cross sectional surveys is often low, and the cumulative failure to adhere is likely to be much higher. These findings may be relevant to those concerned with the development and spread of multi-drug resistant TB. New strategies need to take this into account and ensure patient adherence. PMID:21615930

Personal Genomic Testing for Cancer Risk: Results From the Impact of Personal Genomics Study.

PubMed

Gray, Stacy W; Gollust, Sarah E; Carere, Deanna Alexis; Chen, Clara A; Cronin, Angel; Kalia, Sarah S; Rana, Huma Q; Ruffin, Mack T; Wang, Catharine; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C

2017-02-20

Purpose Significant concerns exist regarding the potential for unwarranted behavior changes and the overuse of health care resources in response to direct-to-consumer personal genomic testing (PGT). However, little is known about customers' behaviors after PGT. Methods Longitudinal surveys were given to new customers of 23andMe (Mountain View, CA) and Pathway Genomics (San Diego, CA). Survey data were linked to individual-level PGT results through a secure data transfer process. Results Of the 1,042 customers who completed baseline and 6-month surveys (response rate, 71.2%), 762 had complete cancer-related data and were analyzed. Most customers reported that learning about their genetic risk of cancers was a motivation for testing (colorectal, 88%; prostate, 95%; breast, 94%). No customers tested positive for pathogenic mutations in highly penetrant cancer susceptibility genes. A minority of individuals received elevated single nucleotide polymorphism-based PGT cancer risk estimates (colorectal, 24%; prostate, 24%; breast, 12%). At 6 months, customers who received elevated PGT cancer risk estimates were not significantly more likely to change their diet, exercise, or advanced planning behaviors or engage in cancer screening, compared with individuals at average or reduced risk. Men who received elevated PGT prostate cancer risk estimates changed their vitamin and supplement use more than those at average or reduced risk (22% v 7.6%, respectively; adjusted odds ratio, 3.41; 95% CI, 1.44 to 8.18). Predictors of 6-month behavior include baseline behavior (exercise, vitamin or supplement use, and screening), worse health status (diet and vitamin or supplement use), and older age (advanced planning, screening). Conclusion Most adults receiving elevated direct-to-consumer PGT single nucleotide polymorphism-based cancer risk estimates did not significantly change their diet, exercise, advanced care planning, or cancer screening behaviors.

Personal Genomic Testing for Cancer Risk: Results From the Impact of Personal Genomics Study

PubMed Central

Gollust, Sarah E.; Carere, Deanna Alexis; Chen, Clara A.; Cronin, Angel; Kalia, Sarah S.; Rana, Huma Q.; Ruffin, Mack T.; Wang, Catharine; Roberts, J. Scott; Green, Robert C.

2017-01-01

Purpose Significant concerns exist regarding the potential for unwarranted behavior changes and the overuse of health care resources in response to direct-to-consumer personal genomic testing (PGT). However, little is known about customers’ behaviors after PGT. Methods Longitudinal surveys were given to new customers of 23andMe (Mountain View, CA) and Pathway Genomics (San Diego, CA). Survey data were linked to individual-level PGT results through a secure data transfer process. Results Of the 1,042 customers who completed baseline and 6-month surveys (response rate, 71.2%), 762 had complete cancer-related data and were analyzed. Most customers reported that learning about their genetic risk of cancers was a motivation for testing (colorectal, 88%; prostate, 95%; breast, 94%). No customers tested positive for pathogenic mutations in highly penetrant cancer susceptibility genes. A minority of individuals received elevated single nucleotide polymorphism-based PGT cancer risk estimates (colorectal, 24%; prostate, 24%; breast, 12%). At 6 months, customers who received elevated PGT cancer risk estimates were not significantly more likely to change their diet, exercise, or advanced planning behaviors or engage in cancer screening, compared with individuals at average or reduced risk. Men who received elevated PGT prostate cancer risk estimates changed their vitamin and supplement use more than those at average or reduced risk (22% v 7.6%, respectively; adjusted odds ratio, 3.41; 95% CI, 1.44 to 8.18). Predictors of 6-month behavior include baseline behavior (exercise, vitamin or supplement use, and screening), worse health status (diet and vitamin or supplement use), and older age (advanced planning, screening). Conclusion Most adults receiving elevated direct-to-consumer PGT single nucleotide polymorphism-based cancer risk estimates did not significantly change their diet, exercise, advanced care planning, or cancer screening behaviors. PMID:27937091

Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration by Tillage and Crop Rotation: A Global Data Analysis

DOE Data Explorer

West, Tristram O. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Post, Wilfred M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2002-01-01

Changes in agricultural management can potentially increase the accumulation rate of soil organic carbon (SOC), thereby sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. This study was conducted to quantify potential soil carbon (C) sequestration rates for different crops in response to decreasing tillage intensity or enhancing rotation complexity, and to estimate the duration of time over which sequestration may occur. Analyses of C sequestration rates were completed using a global database of 67 long-term agricultural experiments, consisting of 276 paired treatments. Results indicate, on average, that a change from conventional tillage (CT) to no-till (NT) can sequester 57 ± 14 g C m^–2 yr^–1, excluding wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow systems which may not result in SOC accumulation with a change from CT to NT. Enhancing rotation complexity can sequester an average 14 ± 11 g C m^–2 yr^–1, excluding a change from continuous corn (Zea mays L.) to corn-soybean (Glycine max L.) which may not result in a significant accumulation of SOC. Carbon sequestration rates, with a change from CT to NT, can be expected to peak in 5-10 yr with SOC reaching a new equilibrium in 15-20 yr. Following initiation of an enhancement in rotation complexity, SOC may reach a new equilibrium in approximately 40-60 yr. Carbon sequestration rates, estimated for a number of individual crops and crop rotations in this study, can be used in spatial modeling analyses to more accurately predict regional, national, and global C sequestration potentials.

USE OF EXPERT RATINGS AS SAMPLING STRATA FOR A MORE COST-EFFECTIVE PROBABILITY SAMPLE OF A RARE POPULATION

PubMed Central

McCaffrey, Daniel; Perlman, Judith; Marshall, Grant N.; Hambarsoomians, Katrin

2010-01-01

We consider situations in which externally observable characteristics allow experts to quickly categorize individual households as likely or unlikely to contain a member of a rare target population. This classification can form the basis of disproportionate stratified sampling such that households classified as “unlikely” are sampled at a lower rate than those classified as “likely,” thereby reducing screening costs. Design weights account for this approach and allow unbiased estimates for the target population. We demonstrate that with sensitivity and specificity of expert classification at least 70%, and ideally at least 80%, our approach can economically increase effective sample size for a rare population. We develop heuristics for implementing this approach and demonstrate that sensitivity drives design effects and screening costs whereas specificity only drives the latter. We demonstrate that the potential gains from this approach increase as the target population becomes rarer. We further show that for most applications, unlikely strata should be sampled at 1/6 to ½ the rate of likely strata. This approach was applied to a survey of Cambodian immigrants in which the 82% of households rated “unlikely” were sampled at ¼ the rate as “likely” households, reducing screening from 9.4 to 4.0 approaches per complete. Sensitivity and specificity were 86% and 91% respectively. Weighted estimation had a design effect of 1.26 so screening costs per effective sample size were reduced 47%. We also note that in this instance, expert classification appeared to be uncorrelated with survey outcomes of interest among eligibles. PMID:20936050

Uncertainty of exploitation estimates made from tag returns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, L.E.; Brock, R.E.; Dorr, B.S.

2002-01-01

Over 6,000 crappies Pomoxis spp. were tagged in five water bodies to estimate exploitation rates by anglers. Exploitation rates were computed as the percentage of tags returned after adjustment for three sources of uncertainty: postrelease mortality due to the tagging process, tag loss, and the reporting rate of tagged fish. Confidence intervals around exploitation rates were estimated by resampling from the probability distributions of tagging mortality, tag loss, and reporting rate. Estimates of exploitation rates ranged from 17% to 54% among the five study systems. Uncertainty around estimates of tagging mortality, tag loss, and reporting resulted in 90% confidence intervals around the median exploitation rate as narrow as 15 percentage points and as broad as 46 percentage points. The greatest source of estimation error was uncertainty about tag reporting. Because the large investments required by tagging and reward operations produce imprecise estimates of the exploitation rate, it may be worth considering other approaches to estimating it or simply circumventing the exploitation question altogether.

Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

1989-01-01

This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

Phase II Study Evaluating the Addition of Cetuximab to the Concurrent Delivery of Weekly Carboplatin, Paclitaxel, and Daily Radiotherapy for Patients With Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinomas of the Head and Neck

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suntharalingam, Mohan, E-mail: msuntha@umm.edu; Kwok, Young; Goloubeva, Olga

Purpose: To report the mature data of a prospective Phase II trial designed to evaluate the efficacy of an epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor cetuximab (CTX) added to the concurrent therapy of weekly paclitaxel/carboplatin (PC) and daily radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: From 2005 to 2009, a total of 43 patients were enrolled in the study. The median follow-up was 31 months (range, 9-59 months). All patients had Stage III/IV disease at presentation, and 67% had oropharyngeal primaries. The weekly IV dose schedules were CTX 250 mg/m{sup 2} (400 mg/m{sup 2} IV loading dose 1 week before RT), paclitaxelmore » 40 mg/m{sup 2}, and carboplatin AUC 2. RT was given at 1.8 Gy per day to 70.2 Gy. Intensity-modulated RTwas used in 70% of cases. Results: All patients completed the planned RT dose, 74% without any treatment breaks. The planned CTX and PC cycles were completed in 70% (91% with at least seven of planned nine cycles) and 56% (93% with at least seven of planned eight cycles) of patients, respectively. Toxicity included Grade 3 mucositis (79%), rash (9%), leucopenia (19%), neutropenia (19%), and RT dermatitis (16%). The complete response (CR) rate at the completion of therapy was 84%. The estimated 3-year local regional control rate was 72%. Six patients with an initial CR subsequently experienced a local recurrence, 10 patients experienced distant progression. The median overall survival and disease-free survivals have not been reached. The 3-year actuarial overall survival and disease-free survival were 59% and 58%, respectively. Conclusions: The addition of CTX to weekly PC and daily RT was well tolerated and resulted in encouraging local control and survival rates.« less

Understanding the evolution and spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas using complete genome sequences.

PubMed

Sahadeo, N S D; Allicock, O M; De Salazar, P M; Auguste, A J; Widen, S; Olowokure, B; Gutierrez, C; Valadere, A M; Polson-Edwards, K; Weaver, S C; Carrington, C V F

2017-01-01

Local transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was first detected in the Americas in December 2013, after which it spread rapidly throughout the Caribbean islands and American mainland, causing a major chikungunya fever epidemic. Previous phylogenetic analysis of CHIKV from a limited number of countries in the Americas suggests that an Asian genotype strain was responsible, except in Brazil where both Asian and East/Central/South African (ECSA) lineage strains were detected. In this study, we sequenced thirty-three complete CHIKV genomes from viruses isolated in 2014 from fourteen Caribbean islands, the Bahamas and two mainland countries in the Americas. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed that they all belonged to the Asian genotype and clustered together with other Caribbean and mainland sequences isolated during the American outbreak, forming an 'Asian/American' lineage defined by two amino acid substitutions, E2 V368A and 6K L20M, and divided into two well-supported clades. This lineage is estimated to be evolving at a mean rate of 5 × 10 -4 substitutions per site per year (95% higher probability density, 2.9-7.9 × 10 -4 ) and to have arisen from an ancestor introduced to the Caribbean (most likely from Oceania) in about March 2013, 9 months prior to the first report of CHIKV in the Americas. Estimation of evolutionary rates for individual gene regions and selection analyses indicate that (in contrast to the Indian Ocean Lineage that emerged from the ECSA genotype followed by adaptive evolution and with a significantly higher substitution rate) the evolutionary dynamics of the Asian/American lineage are very similar to the rest of the Asian genotype and natural selection does not appear to have played a major role in its emergence. However, several codon sites with evidence of positive selection were identified within the non-structural regions of Asian genotype sequences outside of the Asian/American lineage.

Accuracy Rates of Ancestry Estimation by Forensic Anthropologists Using Identified Forensic Cases.

PubMed

Thomas, Richard M; Parks, Connie L; Richard, Adam H

2017-07-01

A common task in forensic anthropology involves the estimation of the ancestry of a decedent by comparing their skeletal morphology and measurements to skeletons of individuals from known geographic groups. However, the accuracy rates of ancestry estimation methods in actual forensic casework have rarely been studied. This article uses 99 forensic cases with identified skeletal remains to develop accuracy rates for ancestry estimations conducted by forensic anthropologists. The overall rate of correct ancestry estimation from these cases is 90.9%, which is comparable to most research-derived rates and those reported by individual practitioners. Statistical tests showed no significant difference in accuracy rates depending on examiner education level or on the estimated or identified ancestry. More recent cases showed a significantly higher accuracy rate. The incorporation of metric analyses into the ancestry estimate in these cases led to a higher accuracy rate. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Online Activity Levels Are Related to Caffeine Dependency.

PubMed

Phillips, James G; Landhuis, C Erik; Shepherd, Daniel; Ogeil, Rowan P

2016-05-01

Online activity could serve in the future as behavioral markers of emotional states for computer systems (i.e., affective computing). Hence, this study considered relationships between self-reported stimulant use and online study patterns. Sixty-two undergraduate psychology students estimated their daily caffeine use, and this was related to study patterns as tracked by their use of a Learning Management System (Blackboard). Caffeine dependency was associated with less time spent online, lower rates of file access, and fewer online activities completed. Reduced breadth or depth of processing during work/study could be used as a behavioral marker of stimulant use.

A preliminary investigation on exercise intensities of gardening tasks in older adults.

PubMed

Park, Sin-Ae; Shoemaker, Candice A; Haub, Mark D

2008-12-01

Heart rate (HR) was measured continuously while men (n=6) and women (n=2) ages 71 to 85 years (M=77.4, SD=4.1) completed nine gardening tasks. HR and VO2 from a submaximal graded exercise test were used to estimate gardening VO2, energy expenditure, % HRmax, and metabolic equivalents (METs). Tasks were low to moderate intensity physical activity (1.6-3.6 METs); those which worked the upper and lower body were moderate intensity physical activity while those that worked primarily the upper body were low intensity physical activity.

Temperature-dependent development of Aleyrodes proletella (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) on two cultivars of broccoli under constant temperatures.

PubMed

Alonso, Daniel; Gómez, Ana Azahara; Nombela, Gloria; Muñiz, Mariano

2009-02-01

Laboratory experiments were conducted to estimate developmental rates and nymphal survival of Aleyrodes proletella Linnaeus (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) on two broccoli Brassica oleracea L. variety italica Plenck cultivars (Marathon and Agripa) at eight constant temperatures (16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, and 30 degrees C). The times required to complete development of egg and first instar decreased with increasing temperature, but the developmental times of second, third, fourth instars, all instars, and egg-adult period were greater at 30 degrees C than at 28degrees C. The relationships between developmental rate of A. proletella and temperature were slightly influenced by broccoli cultivar. The optimal temperatures and thermal constant as well as the lower and upper thresholds of development for all immature stages were estimated by fitting the observed developmental rates versus temperature with a nonlinear model and two linear models. For all stages, graphs obtained by plotting the developmental rates against temperature could be described by the modification two of the Logan's model. Overall, developmental times for immature stages and egg-adult periods were similar on both Agripa and Marathon cultivars. The most favorable temperature range for nymphal development seemed to be 28-29 (second and third instars) and 31-33 degrees C (fourth instar). Mean generation times (egg-adult) ranged from 19 d ('Marathon' and 'Agripa') at 28 degrees C to 47 ('Marathon') and 46 d ('Agripa') at 16 degrees C.